1. Update Buffett Indicator and Buffett Indicator with Record Low Rates

1. 2021 Big Sector Dispersion Already…

1. Inflation–5 Year TIPS/Treasury Breakeven Rate About to Break-Out to 10 Year Highs

1. Shares of Money Losing U.S. Tech Companies…Wow! 5x Increase in 10 Months.

1.Bitcoin Vs. Gold

Bitcoin looks as if its is eating #Gold. While the cryptocurrency hit fresh ATH >51k, Gold has dropped <$1800.

1. Wood-Lumber ETF +100% from Lows.

WOOD-50 day blue line going thru 200 day red on the upside.

1. Price of Ether Has Tripled Since Future Contracts Announced

Google searches for “invest in crypto,” in fact, have recently hit a new all-time high

1. Amazon Capex Crushes Other S&P 500 Names.

1. Macro Hedge Funds “Underinvested”

Dave Lutz at Jones Trading-Twits note on some measures Macro Hedge Funds are significantly underinvested. They’re usually “all-in” near Major tops – but right now, they have little interest in Stocks.  If this rally keep going, it’s only a matter of time until FOMO kicks in.

1. GBTC-Bitcoin Trust New Highs

$7.50 to $47.90

1. Low Quality Leading Rally 

Crossing Wall Street 

Eddy Elfenbein on February 8th, 2021 at 11:53 am

One of the factors that is used to dissect the market is “quality.” Analysts like to see if high-quality stocks are leading the charge, or if they’re being left behind. That’s assumed to be a good indicator of what investors are thinking.

At the outbreak of the coronavirus, investors flocked to high quality names. That makes sense. But since May, high quality has lagged. Actually, it’s lagged pretty badly.

Here’s a chart of Fidelity’s Quality ETF divided by the S&P 500.

1. U.S. 30 Year Treasury Approaching 2%

30 Year Treasury ..2% on Horizon..See red 200 day moving average turning upwards

©1999-2021 StockCharts.com All Rights Reserved

1.Micro Cap Stocks Leading Market.

IWC Microcap ETF 50day thru 200 day to upside….+20 YTD

1.A clear sign of an options mania

Jason Goepfert-Sentiment Trader

It’s a mania. There’s no other word for it, at least in the options market.

Speculative trading picked up last June, lasted through July, then exploded in August, preceding a 13%+ correction in many of the most active names in September. This go-round, it picked up in November, eased a bit in December, now has exploded again as we enter February.

It’s occurred to such a degree it defies explanation, with record speculative activity among the smallest of traders. The 4-week sum has gone parabolic again.

Last week alone, the smallest of options traders increased the pace of their call buying dramatically. Overall volumes increased, but call buying overwhelmed put buying. 

1. Post Election Feb. History

1. January Performance Stats

LPL Blog 

1. American Saved $1.4 Trillion in First Three Quarters of 2020…The Most Ever.

1.Low Volatility Stocks vs. MSCI USA Index is at Widest Level Since 1999.

The return differential between the MSCI USA Minimum Volatility Index, which owns a portfolio of low-volatility stocks, and the MSCI USA Index is now at its widest level since 1999, says John Kolovos, chief technical strategist at Macro Risk Advisors. Owning some of these left-behind companies could be the way to add some ballast to a portfolio in case of a drop, Kolovos says.

Big Tech Stocks Are Back. What’s Behind the Nasdaq’s 4% Rally. By  Ben Levisohn https://www.barrons.com/articles/big-tech-stocks-are-back-whats-behind-the-nasdaqs-4-rally-51611364722?mod=past_editions

1.The Federal Government is Spending Far Less on Debt than 30 Years Ago.

Barrons-By Matthew C. Klein—The persistent weakness of inflation explains why the Fed and other central banks around the world have felt compelled to lower interest rates since the late 1980s in an attempt to stoke private borrowing and spending. That in turn explains why the federal government is spending far less on debt service now than it was 30 years ago—even though the debt level is so much higher now. It all suggests there is a great deal of scope to borrow and spend more money without harming the economy.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-biden-shouldnt-let-the-federal-debt-deter-a-spending-spree-51611346201?mod=past_editions

2. Net Worth Accelerating Faster than Debt and Savings Rates Surge.

Schwab-Liz Ann Sonders

Net worth has been given a significant boost courtesy of the surging stock market as well higher home prices; while consumers have also been prudent in adding to savings and paying down debt. 

As seen below, the boost in savings last year was swift and record-breaking. By last April, the savings rate shot up to 33.7% while spending dipped. A combination of further fiscal relief and heightened discipline towards saving may keep these two series at odds with each other; especially if the jobs recovery moves at a slower pace and consumers remain hesitant to increase spending.

Bridging the Gap(s): Converging and Diverging Trends Stemming From the Crisis   https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/bridging-gaps-converging-and-diverging-trends-stemming-from-crisis

3. Stock Buybacks will be on Table for Regulation.

WSJ-MSCI also found that buybacks began moving up steadily from less than 1% of the companies’ assets before 1994 to an average of 4.1% for the past five years. The percentage of companies in the S&P 500 doing buybacks has more than doubled to 85% since 1992, according to research by Goldman Sachs. GS -2.19%

In the current low-interest-rate environment, many companies have taken on more debt, whose interest cost can be tax-deductible, to buy back shares whose dividends may be more costly. Corporate debt levels at 20-year highs have financed much of the buyback binge.

But a Democratic-led Securities and Exchange Commission could enact tougher disclosure requirements by itself. During the campaign, President-elect Joe Biden criticized buybacks and expressed support for tighter regulatory supervision—but not a progressive Baldwin-style ban nor Schumer-Sanders overhauls.

The Council of Institutional Investors, for example, has urged disclosure of how buyback plans might affect executive compensation, and faster two-day reporting on executions. A ban might not pass the Senate even if Democrats win a majority because most legislation requires 60 votes. Stock Buybacks: What Every Investor Needs to Know–By Randall Smith

https://www.wsj.com/articles/stock-buybacks-what-every-investor-needs-to-know-11607185864

PKW-Buyback ETF New Highs

www.stockcharts.com

4. Lumber futures climbed 115% in 2020, after hitting a record settlement of $928.20 per 1,000 board feet on Sept. 1

WOOD Lumber ETF

www.stockcharts.com

5. Refresher on Short Interest…Another New  Low 1.5% of S&P

Short Squeeze mania the last few weeks in market

Hedge Fund CIO: “It’s An Orgy”- TYLER DURDEN–BY ERIC PETERS, CIO OF ONE RIVER ASSET MANAGEMENT

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-fund-cio-its-orgy

6. Treasury Cash Held at the FED $1.5 Trillion

Treasury Cash Held at the Fed The graph below shows Treasury’s cash balance, held at the Fed, is over $1.5 trillion more than its average. The Treasury essentially funded over $1 trillion, backed by a higher money supply, which it has yet to spend.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2021/01/25/why-inflation-is-mia

7. M2-Fastest Growth in 25 Years.

First Trust

https://www.ftportfolios.com/retail/Commentary/ResearchAndCommentaryMain.aspx

8. Did you know that if investors missed the 10 best days in the past 20 years their S&P 500 returns would have been cut in half? Let’s connect to discuss investing over the long term.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/seanmpearson/

9. XLE-Energy Select ETF Breaks Above Downtrend Line Going Back to Mid-2018

www.stockcharts.com

10. What Is Your “Style” For Dealing With Conflict At Work?

How you handle conflict is an expression of your personality.

Conflict in the workplace is an inescapable reality of working life, and it can be compounded by the fact that it may come at you from more than one direction at a time.

For example, employees may experience a conflict between the demands of a job and their obligations to their families, while at the same time there can be a conflict between an employee and the organization as a whole if the employee feels unfairly treated and exploited.

There may be interpersonal conflicts between individuals who simply do not like each other very much and who have a simmering history of animosity, and there can be intragroup conflict between different factions within a department or office.

And of course, there can be virtual intergroup warfare between different components of large organizations who may have conflicting interests. The recent tension between the health experts and scientists versus the political appointees in the Trump administration is a prime example of how such gridlock can have deadly consequences.

And it is no mystery why so much conflict occurs. On the one hand, we need to cooperate with our coworkers if we want to get anything accomplished, but on the other hand, our coworkers are our biggest competitors when it comes to promotions, prime vacation times, and other perks and recognitions that are in scarce supply. This inherent tension is sure to lead to problems sooner or later.

Given the pervasiveness of conflict at work, understanding how one typically approaches conflict and navigates a way through it can go a long way toward helping a person become a more satisfied and effective worker.

There have been a variety of models to describe different styles of managing conflict, but one of my favorites is a model developed by David B. Cohen for a workbook that accompanies the textbook that I use when I teach Industrial Psychology.

Cohen’s system is not a scientific theory per se, but it offers a handy and intuitively appealing way to think about the relationship between our personalities and the way we typically handle the conflict in our lives.  Cohen identified five common ways in which individuals deal with conflict, and each has a colorful label as follows:

The Sage

The “Sage” is probably the most effective of the conflict management styles. The Sage is genuinely concerned about the well-being of all of the parties involved in a conflict and seeks a solution that provides the best possible outcomes for all concerned. The Sage tends to view open conflict as an opportunity to finally resolve issues that may have been lurking just beneath the surface for quite some time, and the Sage employs an instinctively cooperative approach in conflict situations.

The Diplomat

The “Diplomat” is a compromiser, but unlike the Sage, the Diplomat is primarily concerned about his or her own needs. It is not that Diplomats are completely uncaring about the needs of others, but they make sure that #1 (i.e., themselves) gets taken care of before they see what can be done for anyone else. Diplomats are usually able to craft a solution to a conflict, but it will not necessarily be the best one for all of the conflicting parties.

The Ostrich

As the name implies,“Ostriches” hate conflict and usually find it so stressful that they completely avoid dealing with it as long as they can. They avoid sending that unpleasant but necessary e-mail—or postpone scheduling the meeting that everyone knows has to happen. The strategy seems to be that if the Ostrich procrastinates long enough, maybe the whole nasty business will just disappear on its own. Unfortunately, putting it off usually just causes it to fester and escalate, so the Ostrich often ends up in the middle of an even worse situation than existed before he or she buried their head in the sand.

The Philanthropist

The “Philanthropist” is a pleaser and a pushover. Unlike the Ostrich who fails to acknowledge that a problem exists until it is too late, the Philanthropist finds conflict so unpleasant that he or she is willing to do almost anything to make it go away as quickly as possible. The Philanthropist is easily persuaded by others who offer a plan for eradicating the conflict, and they are usually quite willing to sacrifice their own needs to satisfy other people. Not surprisingly, the Philanthropist often gets taken advantage of and may be more resentful and less happy than he or she would have been if the conflict had been handled differently.

The Warrior

The “Warrior” likes to win, and he or she has very little regard for the feelings of other people in pursuit of this goal. In fact, the Warrior may even find conflict to be an exhilarating and enjoyable form of competition. Warriors can be very forceful and may even resort to threats and intimidation as a way of getting what they want. Needless to say, a Warrior or two in a work group can make life fairly unpleasant if things do not go their way.

Cohen’s scheme for thinking about conflict styles was developed specifically for conflict in the workplace, but I believe that it can readily be applied to other areas of our lives as well. Each of us can certainly think of Sages, Ostriches, and Warriors who have prowled the different domains of our world— and sometimes, they just might have been you.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/out-the-ooze/202101/what-is-your-style-dealing-conflict-work

Disclosure

Indices that may be included herein are unmanaged indices and one cannot directly invest in an index. Index returns do not reflect the impact of any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. The index information included herein is for illustrative purposes only.
Material for market review represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results.
Material compiled by Lansing Street Advisors is based on publicly available data at the time of compilation. Lansing Street Advisors makes no warranties or representation of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to the use such data.
To the extent that content includes references to securities, those references do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or hold such security as information is provided for educational purposes only. Articles should not be considered investment advice and the information contain within should not be relied upon in assessing whether or not to invest in any securities or asset classes mentioned. Articles have been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Securities discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Please keep in mind that a company’s past financial performance, including the performance of its share price, does not guarantee future results.
Lansing Street Advisors is a registered investment adviser with the State of Pennsylvania..

1. How Much Positive News is Priced into Clean Power?

PBW Clean Energy ETF -$25 to $131

1. Key Biden executive actions

1. It’s Not 1999 Yet.

Nick Maggiulli—Of Dollars and Data Blog

Markets often rhyme but rarely repeat

With the many eye-popping valuations of various technology IPOs in 2020, it can feel a bit reminiscent of 1999.  And while stock prices might be high, 2020 is no 1999.  Just take a look at the growth in the NASDAQ from 1995-1999 compared to 2016-2020 and you will see that it’s night and day:

This chart illustrates that there is a big difference between “bubble” and “BUBBLE.”  As my colleague Michael Batnick recently argued:

I don’t think the stock market is in a bubble, but it’s surrounded by them.  

Though we aren’t in 1999, some investors definitely are.  Markets often rhyme but rarely repeat.  

1. Small Trader Call Buying Exceeded 9% of Total NYSE Volume Last Week

SentimentTrader didn’t think traders could get any more speculative than they were at the end of August.  “We were wrong – For the first time, small trader call buying (adjusted for equivalent shares) exceeded 9% of total NYSE volume last week”

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading

1. Shipping Prices Huge Spike

Holger Zschaepitz

A headwind for the global economy: Shipping goods gets prices amid higher demand and a shrinking pool of empty boxes. Costly containers adding to general supply chain shocks due to pandemic, threatening to stifle already weakened globalization, BBG reports.

1. Best Performers 2021 -Decile of Stocks with the Highest Short Interest

Heavily Shorted Stocks Stand Tall in 2021-In the chart below, we show the average YTD performance of Russell 3000 stocks broken into deciles based on their short interest.  The decile of stocks with the highest short interest as a percentage of float have by far been the best performers YTD, up for an average of 14.16%.  Even excluding GME, the decile’s average YTD performance is a 13.93% gain.  As you move across the deciles with lower short interest levels, performance gets worse. The tenth decile of stocks which consists of stocks with average short interest levels below 1% of float has only risen 3.6% on average.

1. Plug power stock chart–doubled in 6 days 

Plug Power Chart Below $5 to $65

1. The Russell 1000 value index has jumped 14.5% since early November, nearly triple the gain of its growth-stock counterpart, which is dominated by technology

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading

1. Everyone in the Pool…….The Last 2 Months of 2020 Saw the Largest Flow into Equity Funds on Record Over Such a Period

1.Bitcoin Plunged $6000 Sunday Night.

Zerohedge

Bitcoin has plunged over $6000…

1. History of Democratic Control of White House and Congress

https://i0.wp.com/lplresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/1.7.21-CADMU-Chart-1.png?ssl=1

2. ETF Performance Summary 2020.

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright

https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright-stock-market-equity-investment-research-company

3. 5 and 10 Year Breakeven Inflation Rates Breaking Out.

5 Year Breaking Out

10 Year About to Break Out

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIE

4. Fed sees rising bond yields, inflation expectations as a possible win

By Jonnelle Marte, Ann Saphir, Howard Schneider

(Reuters) – A recent rise in U.S. bond yields and market inflation expectations has bolstered Federal Reserve officials’ hopes that the central bank’s new monetary policy approach is taking hold and could be further buoyed if a Democratic-led Congress rolls out more spending.

FILE PHOTO: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin poses during a break at a Dallas Fed conference on technology in Dallas, Texas, U.S., May 23, 2019. REUTERS/Ann Saphir/File Photo/File Photo

“I am encouraged to see the rise in market indicators of inflation expectations. … That is what we are trying to support,” Richmond Federal President Thomas Barkin said on Thursday in an interview with Reuters.

Barkin said he regarded a recent rise in interest rates on Treasury bonds as also part of a “reflation trade,” a sign that investors were factoring future hikes in prices into their decisions by demanding higher interest rates, rather than representing a worrisome tightening of financial conditions.

“The ingredients for higher inflation are in place,” St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said in separate comments to reporters. “You have very powerful fiscal policy in place and perhaps more to come,” with Democrats now about to control the White House as well as the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives.

“You have a Fed that … wants to temporarily have inflation above target. You have the economy poised to boom at the end of the pandemic,” once the impact of new coronavirus vaccines is felt, Bullard said. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury rose above 1.07% on Thursday, hitting its highest level since March. The 5-year forward inflation expectation rate hit nearly a two-year high of 2.05%.

‘INCREDIBLY DISAPPOINTING’

After nearly two years of study, the Fed in August changed its approach to monetary policy to allow for higher inflation, hoping to meet its 2% target on an average basis by letting prices drift higher for some time in order to offset years in which inflation had been weak. That would also allow, in theory, a lower unemployment rate since the central bank would try to sustain the sort of “hot” economy that leads to rising prices.

The massive uncertainty about the economy and the course of the pandemic late last summer has since given way to what Barkin said was more “clarity” around where things stand – with two coronavirus vaccines being distributed, fiscal buffers in place to help many American households, and consumers “not far away” from the point when they will “engage in the economy with a lot more confidence.”

The pace of the vaccine distribution will play a large role in when that happens, with some policymakers expressing dismay at the effort so far.

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker called the early U.S. vaccination figures, with fewer than 5 million inoculated so far, “incredibly disappointing.”

But the events of the last few weeks do seem to have shifted market bets about the future, with trades in inflation-linked securities hinting that investors expect higher inflation and accept that the Fed will not stand in the way of it.

“We are looking at a long period where the fed funds rate will stay at essentially zero,” Harker said, referring to the central bank’s key overnight interest rate. He added that he saw no signs that “inflation is going to go out of control.”

Indeed, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans expressed more skepticism about the inflation to come, even with the additional government stimulus that might be on the way to help battle the economic fallout of the pandemic and the recession it triggered.

The boost to inflation from added fiscal spending, he told a bankers group on Thursday, is not “nearly as strong as I would like.”

Reporting by Jonnelle Marte, Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul Simao

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed/fed-sees-rising-bond-yields-inflation-expectations-as-a-possible-win-idUSKBN29C2ZH

5. Beaten Down Small Cap Energy Names Making Big Move.

PSCE small cap energy ETF 50 day thru 200 day to upside +70% from lows

www.stockcharts.com

6. Positive Earnings Revisions at a Record.

Ned Davis Research  www.ndr.com

7. Chapter 11 Large Bankruptcies.

Wolf Street Blog

Another outstanding group of the Chapter 11 filers, vintage 2020, were the members of the Great American Oil & Gas Bust, such as Diamond Offshore, MC Dermott, Chesapeake Energy, California Resources, Denbury Resources, etc.

Among these larger companies, Chapter 11 filings, by sector, according to S&P Global:

• Consumer discretionary: 125
• Industrials: 84
• Energy: 69
• Healthcare: 57
• Consumer staples: 34
• Materials: 27
• Real estate: 25
• Information tech: 25
• Communication services: 22
• Financials: 14
• Utilities: 6

But not included in the bankruptcy filing data are the many small companies that shut down quietly, with the owners working out deals with their creditors, landlords, banks, and credit card companies, without resorting to a bankruptcy filing. Many small retail stores, restaurants, and services businesses, such as hair and nail salons, fall into this category. Tens of thousands of restaurants are said to have shut down permanently due to the Pandemic.

How Will This Unwind? Amid Stimulus, Forbearance, Eviction Bans, Consumer Bankruptcies Dropped to Lowest in Decades. Commercial Chapter 11 Bankruptcies Highest in Yearsby Wolf Richter

8. Number of Hours U.S. Average Wage to Buy One Share of S&P

9. National Gas Prices Back to March 2019 Highs

U.S. Drivers Paying Most at the Pump Since the Pandemic–By Jeffrey Bair

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-07/retail-gasoline-reaches-highest-price-since-start-of-pandemic?sref=GGda9y2L

10. The Busier You Are, the More You Need Quiet Time

by Justin Talbot-Zorn and Leigh Marz

Summary.   Taking time for silence restores the nervous system, helps sustain energy, and conditions our minds to be more adaptive and responsive. For example, silence is associated with the development of new cells in the hippocampus, the key brain region associated with learning and memory. But…   more

In a recent interview with Vox’s Ezra Klein, journalist and author Ta-Nehisi Coates argued that serious thinkers and writers should get off Twitter.

It wasn’t a critique of the 140-character medium or even the quality of the social media discourse in the age of fake news.

It was a call to get beyond the noise.

For Coates, generating good ideas and quality work products requires something all too rare in modern life: quiet.

He’s in good company.  Author JK Rowling, biographer Walter Isaacson, and psychiatrist Carl Jung have all had disciplined practices for managing the information flow and cultivating periods of deep silence. Ray Dalio, Bill George, California Governor Jerry Brown, and Ohio Congressman Tim Ryan have also described structured periods of silence as important factors in their success.

Recent studies are showing that taking time for silence restores the nervous system, helps sustain energy, and conditions our minds to be more adaptive and responsive to the complex environments in which so many of us now live, work, and lead. Duke Medical School’s Imke Kirste recently found that silence is associated with the development of new cells in the hippocampus, the key brain region associated with learning and memory. Physician Luciano Bernardi found that two-minutes of silence inserted between musical pieces proved more stabilizing to cardiovascular and respiratory systems than even the music categorized as “relaxing.” And a 2013 study in the Journal of Environmental Psychology, based on a survey of 43,000 workers, concluded that the disadvantages of noise and distraction associated with open office plans outweighed anticipated, but still unproven, benefits like increasing morale and productivity boosts from unplanned interactions.

But cultivating silence isn’t just about getting respite from the distractions of office chatter or tweets.  Real sustained silence, the kind that facilitates clear and creative thinking, quiets inner chatter as well as outer.

This kind of silence is about resting the mental reflexes that habitually protect a reputation or promote a point of view. It’s about taking a temporary break from one of life’s most basic responsibilities: Having to think of what to say.

writes in a recent HBR article, “increase[s] your chances of encountering novel ideas and information and discerning weak signals.” When we’re constantly fixated on the verbal agenda—what to say next, what to write next, what to tweet next—it’s tough to make room for truly different perspectives or radically new ideas. It’s hard to drop into deeper modes of listening and attention. And it’s in those deeper modes of attention that truly novel ideas are found.

Even incredibly busy people can cultivate periods of sustained quiet time. Here are four practical ideas:

1) Punctuate meetings with five minutes of quiet time. If you’re able to close the office door, retreat to a park bench, or find another quiet hideaway, it’s possible to hit reset by engaging in a silent practice of meditation or reflection.

2) Take a silent afternoon in nature. You need not be a rugged outdoors type to ditch the phone and go for a simple two-or-three-hour jaunt in nature. In our own experience and those of many of our clients, immersion in nature can be the clearest option for improving creative thinking capacities. Henry David Thoreau went to the woods for a reason.

3) Go on a media fast. Turn off your email for several hours or even a full day, or try “fasting” from news and entertainment. While there may still be plenty of noise around—family, conversation, city sounds—you can enjoy real benefits by resting the parts of your mind associated with unending work obligations and tracking social media or current events.

4) Take the plunge and try a meditation retreat:  Even a short retreat is arguably the most straightforward way to turn toward deeper listening and awaken intuition. The journalist Andrew Sullivan recently described his experience at a silent retreat as “the ultimate detox.” As he put it: “My breathing slowed. My brain settled…It was if my brain were moving away from the abstract and the distant toward the tangible and the near.”

The world is getting louder.  But silence is still accessible—it just takes commitment and creativity to cultivate it.

https://www.google.com/search?q=10.The+Busier+You+Are%2C+the+More+You+Need+Quiet+Time&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS898US898&oq=10.The+Busier+You+Are%2C+the+More+You+Need+Quiet+Time&aqs=chrome..69i57j33i22i29i30.1717j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Disclosure

Lansing Street Advisors is a registered investment adviser with the State of Pennsylvania..
To the extent that content includes references to securities, those references do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or hold such security as information is provided for educational purposes only. Articles should not be considered investment advice and the information contain within should not be relied upon in assessing whether or not to invest in any securities or asset classes mentioned. Articles have been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Securities discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Please keep in mind that a company’s past financial performance, including the performance of its share price, does not guarantee future results.
Material compiled by Lansing Street Advisors is based on publicly available data at the time of compilation. Lansing Street Advisors makes no warranties or representation of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to the use such data.
Material for market review represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results.
Indices that may be included herein are unmanaged indices and one cannot directly invest in an index. Index returns do not reflect the impact of any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. The index information included herein is for illustrative purposes only.

1. S&P Historical Returns Following a November-December Rally.

www.dorseywright.com

1. Stocks have had their third best decade of returns.

On a reward-risk basis, stocks have had their second-best decade and bonds have had their third best, but the best of the past seven.

1. GFC vs. Covid-19 Stock Market Returns

Great financial crisis 2008-2010 vs. Coronavirus rally

1. ESG Fund Flows Doubled Year Over Year….65% of Domestic Large Cap ESG Outperformed.

According to Morningstar data, about 65% of the domestic large-cap stock ESG funds beat the S&P 500 in 2020, including all 10 of the largest ones.   In 2020, ESG funds more than doubled the $21.4 billion in inflows received in the previous year. Index-tracking ESG funds have grown particularly fast; many look more like broad-market index funds than their active counterparts, making them an easier transition for investors.

Active, ESG, and Thematic ETFs Were 2020’s Big Winners. Expect More-Barrons

Evie Liu

https://www.barrons.com/articles/active-esg-and-thematic-etfs-were-2020s-big-winners-expect-more-51609414200?mod=past_editions

1. With Some 1999 Like Behaviors Starting to Perculate..It Will Be Interesting to See if we get a Spike in  Stock Splits

1. AMAZON Capital Expenditures History….Set to Double Year Over Year.

https://www.discoverci.com/companies/AMZN/capital-expenditures-capex#:~:text=Amazon.com%20Inc%20(AMZN),quarter%20ended%20September%2030th%2C%202020.

1. The Only Number that Mattered to the Market in 2020

The answer is much simpler and comes down to one number: $14 trillion. That’s the amount by which the aggregate money supply has increased this year in the U.S., China, euro zone, Japan and eight other developed economies. To put the surge in perspective, the jump to $94.8 trillion exceeds all other years in data going back to 2003 and blows away the previous record increase of $8.38 trillion in 2017, according to data compiled by Bloomberg

1. NIO –EV 10 Bagger

Chinese EV Stock $1.20-$45 One Year.

1. 3 Reasons Why You Shouldn’t Wait For the Stock Market to Crash

by Michael Batnick

“I can’t invest now. The stock market is too high.”

Everybody who has ever put a dollar into the market has had this thought at some point in time. But all-time highs are nothing to fear. In fact, returns are stronger after all-time highs because rising prices attract more buyers which leads to higher prices. This tends to continue until something comes along and knocks this cycle off of its course.

1.Retail Trading Explosion.

1. Balance Sheets of Developed Market Economies Hit War Time Levels

1. Corporate Debt Now Matched by Corporate Liquid Assets.

Kathy Jones, @KathyJones

The rise in corporate debt lately has been matched by an ever greater rise in corporate liquid assets.

1. Textbook Investor Behavior…Largest 5 Week Period of Global Equity Flows Ever.

Global Equities logged +$133B worth of inflows over the past 5 weeks. This is the largest 5 week period on record by ~30% – GS Traders note January is right around the corner and this is when 37% of the YEARLY rebalances takes place. Potentially as much as $100bn of equity inflow is a guesstimate.

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading

1. FPXI-First Trust International IPO ETF +60% YTD.

It’s not just the U.S. IPO market that is hot…International.

1. Bank of Japan Increasing Equity Buying During Pandemic…….Now Long $400B of Japanese Stocks.

WHALE BUYER– The Bank of Japan has taken over as the biggest owner of the nation’s stocks, with the total value of its holdings climbing well above $400 billion – Massive exchange-traded fund purchases by the BOJ to support the market amid the pandemic this year combined with subsequent valuation gains pushed its Japanese equity portfolio to 45.1 trillion yen ($434 billion) in November.

1. IPO ETF is +100% 2020.

December is set to be the busiest year-end on record for initial public offerings in the U.S., with DoorDash Inc. and Airbnb Inc. ready to start trading this week in long-awaited listings – The two startups, which are aiming to raise a combined $6.2 billion at the top-end of their price ranges, will propel the month’s IPO volume to all-time high, surpassing the $8.3 billion mark set in December of both 2001 and 2003.  DoorDash upped the price range for its stock in a Friday filing, while Airbnb plans to boost the proposed price range of its initial public offering to between $56 and $60 a share. The IPO ETF is a double in 2020!

1. 10 Year Treasury Yield Closing in on 1%

10 Year Treasury Yield

1. Shopping Is Not The Only Thing Going Online…..Gambling ???

Macau Gross Revenue-Bloomberg

Travel agents say that interest in visiting Macau has been weak because of inconvenient new requirements for those crossing the border between it and mainland China, such as a negative virus test. Any resurgence of coronavirus infections could also lead to abrupt new border controls imposed by China, and holiday makers don’t want to run the risk of being stranded in Macau. Meanwhile, vacation destinations on the Chinese mainland, such as the southern province of Hainan, are proving an alternate draw with such perks as duty-free shopping. Only five of 23 Macau hotels surveyed by Morgan Stanley were fully booked for the Golden Week holiday as of mid-September, down from 19 a year earlier.

1. Zombie Company’s Grew During Covid.

Barrons

How do you identify a zombie firm? Principal Global offers a guide: companies that can’t cover interest costs twice with the previous year’s pretax earnings; whose spread between return on equity and cost of equity is less than four percentage points; whose one-year and average three-year sales growth is less than 3%; and whose Altman Z-Score—a measure of liquidity, solvency, and profitability sometimes used to predict bankruptcy—is below 1.8.

The Pandemic Has Swelled the Ranks of Zombie Companies. Here’s How to Recognize Them.

1. Insider Selling Fastest Pace Since 2012

INSIDERS SELL– S&P 500 execs sold shares of their own firms at a rapid pace in the last month. The selling picked up so much versus buying that a measure of insider velocity tracked by Sundial Capital showed the fastest exit since 2012. About $975 million of stock was dumped last week, more than twice the prior week, SEC data compiled by Bloomberg show.  Their purchases increased by roughly 10% to $11 million.

1. Small Caps Lag In 4^th Quarter

Now is not a good time to be actively investing in small-cap U.S. stocks. That’s because small-caps typically lag their larger counterparts during the fourth quarter. 

Take a look at the accompanying chart, which plots the average monthly return advantage that the smallest stocks have over the largest. (The exact definitions of these two hypothetical portfolios are provided on the website maintained by Dartmouth College professor Ken French.)

1. Carvana Used Cars….Covid Low $20……$226 Last.

CVNA Chart

1. Speculators/Traders Are Most Bearish on Nasdaq 100 in 12 Years.

1. September….Nasdaq 1% Move Everyday So Far.

1. Total Retail Sales Thru Financial Crisis and Covid……..Versus Total Department Store Sales.

Wolf Street

1. Short-Interest in NYSE Stocks at Multi-Year Low.

BloggersnoteShort interest in equities at multi-year lows

1. City and State Governments Contribute 20% of U.S. GDP

1. Recent History of Incoming and Outgoing Dow Constituents

The graph below shows the performance of the Dow index, an equal-weight portfolio of the three stocks coming into the index, and an equal-weight portfolio of the three stocks going out of the index.  For the past three years, the outgoing members shown in black have hugely underperformed the incoming members indicated by the blue line. 

www.dorseywright.com

2-3.  This Bull Market is the Longest But Still Not Strongest…..1990’s Internet Bubble Ending Was Strongest.

Which Bull Will It Be?

Posted by lplresearch

Market Blog

The incredible rally off the March 23 bear market bottom continues, with the S&P 500 Index up more than 50% from those fateful lows. It feels like a lifetime since the longest bull market ever ended. Remember though, although the recent bull market was the longest, it wasn’t the greatest, as the 1990s bull gained more on a percentage basis.

We discussed in detail what the new highs in the S&P 500 meant here, so we won’t dive into that again. But this time we’ll show just how this rally ranks versus others that ended major bear markets. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, this new bull market, up to this point of about five months, is stronger than any other major bull market’s start going back to World War II.

“Yes, this new bull market is the strongest bull market we’ve ever seen after five months,” explained LPL Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But that shouldn’t be a source of worry. The previous two strongest rallies up to this point were in 1982 and 2009, and both saw continued strength during the first year of the new bull market.”

Here is a chart showing just this bull market and the ’82 and ’09 bull markets.

https://lplresearch.com/2020/08/26/which-bull-will-it-be/

4. Corporate Defaults Have Tripled

Capital Group Blog

• Corporate defaults have jumped, but the default rate has been low for a very long time
• The market for lower rated companies is much less efficient, so there’s more opportunity to differentiate and find value
• Especially over the long term, returns on high-yield bonds (BB/Ba and lower) can provide investors who are willing to take a little higher risk of loss a significant income boost

https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/corporate-defaults-triple.html

5. Warren Buffett: The Best Way to Learn About Business

Buffett’s comments from 1998 about business schools

August 21, 2020 | About: BRK.A +0.37% BRK.B +0.35%

Over the years, Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio) has criticized business schools for the way they teach students. Buffett has disagreed with business schools’ views on the cost of capital and efficient market theory, to name just two points. He’s also attacked the way business schools teach students about business valuation.

Buffett was taught how to value companies by the dean of value investing, Benjamin Graham. Over the years, he’s developed and refined the strategy, building his own views into Graham’s fundamental base.

The Oracle of Omaha has never laid out the exact process he uses to value businesses, and that may be because there isn’t one. He has so much experience evaluating companies, he knows what to look for and what to avoid without consulting a guide.

The best way to learn

Buffett has made some comments in the past about the best way to learn company valuation. Indeed, at the 1998 Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B) annual meeting of investors, he proclaimed that if he were to run a business school, Buffett would get students to study business after business, rather than focusing on other topics. Here’s what he said at the time:

“I were teaching a course on investments, there would be simply one valuation study after another with the students, trying to identify the key variables in that particular business, and evaluating how predictable they were first, because that is the first step.”

The aim of this process, he explained, would be to get students to recognize essential qualities to help them find a handful of successful investments:

“If something is not very predictable, forget it. You know, you don’t have to be right about every company. You have to make a few good decisions in your lifetime. But then when you find the important thing is to know when you find one where you really do know the key variables which ones are important and you do think you’ve got a fix on them. Where we’ve been where we’ve done well, Charlie and I made a dozen or so very big decisions relative to net worth, but not as big as they should have been. And we’ve known we were right on those going in. I mean they just weren’t that complicated. And we knew we were focusing on the right variables and they were dominant. And we knew that even though we couldn’t take it out to five decimal places or anything like that, we knew that in a general way we were right about them. And that’s what we look for. The fat pitch. And that’s what I would be teaching trying to teach students to do. And I would not try to teach them to think they could do the impossible.”

Buffett has issued similar advice many times in his career. Finding good investments isn’t an exact science; it is an art. The only way to get good at this art, like any other creative business, is practice. There’s no short cut to this process; that’s why good investing isn’t easy. It requires years of experience and learning.

Buffett has been studying businesses for decades, so he knows what makes a good company and what does not. He’s built the experience through thousands of hours of investment research and study.

He has a general interest in business as well, which gives him a bit of an advantage as he’s always interested in learning more about companies and sectors. This has to be one of the Oracle’s top advantages compared to the rest of the investment sector.

Buffett is always learning and improving. There’s no short-cut to this process. Investors have to want to do the work to get ahead.

Disclosure: The author owns shares in Berkshire Hathaway.

https://www.gurufocus.com/news/12153

6. Covid Year to Date vs. WW II

Covid-19 Has Now Cost Us Nearly as Much as WWIIBut instead of spending trillions fighting the enemy, we’re making sure the Nasdaq doesn’t decline

https://marker.medium.com/covid-19-has-now-cost-us-nearly-as-much-as-wwii-925bb98c9447

7.  In Shadow of Pandemic, U.S. Drug Overdose Deaths Resurge to Record-NYT

By Josh Katz, Abby Goodnough and Margot Sanger-KatzJuly 15, 2020

Drug deaths in America, which fell for the first time in 25 years in 2018, rose to record numbers in 2019 and are continuing to climb, a resurgence that is being complicated and perhaps worsened by the coronavirus pandemic.

Nearly 72,000 Americans died from drug overdoses last year, according to preliminary data released Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — an increase of 5 percent from 2018. Deaths from drug overdoses remain higher than the peak yearly death totals ever recorded for car accidents, guns or AIDS, and their acceleration in recent years has pushed down overall life expectancy in the United States.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/15/upshot/drug-overdose-deaths.html?utm_source=morning_brew

Found at Morning Brew https://www.morningbrew.com/?utm_expid=.ZTQPzZIzTFOdxoi4D0Ey0Q.0&utm_referrer=

8. One In Five Adults Get Their Political Views Primarily Thru Social Media

Americans Who Mainly Get Their News on Social Media Are Less Engaged, Less Knowledgeable

Those who rely on social media for news are less likely to get the facts right about the coronavirus and politics and more likely to hear some unproven claims

BY AMY MITCHELL, MARK JURKOWITZ, J. BAXTER OLIPHANT AND ELISA SHEARER

https://www.journalism.org/2020/07/30/americans-who-mainly-get-their-news-on-social-media-are-less-engaged-less-knowledgeable/

9. 55% OF PROFESSIONALS MISS THE PHYSICAL OFFICE

Aug 21, 2020, 4:50 pm

Do you miss going into a physical office? As it turns out, more than ½ of professionals do.Professionals Miss Going To A Physical Office

Here are some key learnings (08/20-08/21)

1.  55% of surveyed professionals miss going into a physical office

o    70% of Google professionals miss going into a physical office, compared to 31% of Salesforce professionals

2.  42% of surveyed professionals state that compared to an in office setting, their stress levels during WFH are overall higher 

o    . 59% of Google professionals say their stress levels during WFH are overall higher

o    40% of Facebook professionals say their stress during WFH are overall higher

3.  29% of surveyed professionals state that compared to an in office setting, their productivity levels during WFH are overall lower

o    . 52% of Apple professionals state that compared to an in office setting, their productivity levels during WFH are overall lower

o    46% of Facebook professionals state that compared to an in office setting, their productivity levels during WFH are overall lower

Look at the raw data:

One Amazon user writes: “Folks working at companies with a ton of in office benefits (Google, FB) – do you miss the free food and everything while wfh? Have your companies offered to compensate in some other way? All put together, those benefits probably had a modest dollar amount associated with them.”

Q1 Comparison

Q2 Comparison

Q3 Comparison

 https://www.valuewalk.com/2020/08/professionals-miss-physical-office/

10. How to Nail Your Goals with This Simple Secret

4 Keys to Accomplish the Goals You Keep Missingby Megan Hyatt Miller

This is a guest post by Megan Hyatt Miller. Megan is the Chief Operating Officer of Michael Hyatt & Co. She is also Michael’s oldest daughter. Megan, her husband Joel, and their four children make their home in Franklin, Tennessee.

Most of us start pursuing our goals with great focus and intensity, but roadblocks inevitably surface before we’re far down the road. We might be tempted to quit, or simply redouble our efforts in an effort to scale the obstacle, but the secret may be tossing our strategy out the window and trying an alternate approach.

I’ve been steadily working to reclaim my fitness, working out with a trainer consistently for several months, doing cardio on my off days, and dialing in my nutrition. In fact, it felt so good to feel strong again, that I pushed it a little harder than I should have.

Just as all my hard work started to pay off, I noticed a pain developing in my foot. I tried to ignore it for several weeks, but eventually I gave in and went to the doctor, only to discover I had a stress fracture in my fourth metatarsal. As I walked out of the doctor hobbling in my boot, I felt angry, defeated, and ready to quit. But I didn’t.

Instead, I went to a local gym, signed up, and started using equipment that would keep me active while letting my foot rest. It’s an example of a simple but powerful secret: The way to achieve our goals is to hold them tightly and our strategies loosely.

A Goal Setting Super Power

I used to feel like a failure when I would change strategy to accomplish my goals. I worried I might lack commitment, or just be a bad planner. After all, if I were better at setting goals, wouldn’t I have nailed the strategy the first time? But over the years I’ve realized my ability to zig and zag with strategy is not a mark of failure, but instead a goal setting super power.

This year, I’ve already changed strategy multiple times in three major areas—and those are the areas where I’m making the most progress. Whether it’s my health and fitness goals, Michael Hyatt & Co. growth targets, or my children, I rarely achieve anything significant that doesn’t require at least a handful of significant strategy changes.

Why? Because we only have limited visibility when we set our goals. Think about it: How could you possibly plan for all the contingencies that will happen in a 365-day period on January 1 (or whenever you set your annual goals)? I haven’t had a year yet where unforeseen obstacles, challenges, and opportunities presented themselves in a constant parade.

What Helmuth von Moltke said about war applies perfectly to reaching our goals:

[N]o plan of operations extends with any certainty beyond the first contact with the main hostile force. . . . [T]he commander in chief will always keep his main objective in mind and will not be swayed by the changeability of events. Nevertheless, the way in which he hopes to attain that objective cannot be laid out in advance with any degree of certainty.

Instead, von Moltke said commanders will keep their objectives in view but use their judgment to react in the moment.

4 Keys to Cultivate Your Super Power

Before I make it sound like this kind of magical flexibility comes naturally to me, I have to confess I am not naturally flexible at all. Just ask my husband and kids. In fact, on the StrengthsFinder test of 34 strengths, my lowest scoring strength is Adaptability. I’m basically a life-long underachiever in the flexibility department. That’s good news, because this is less of a natural aptitude and more of a skill that anyone can cultivate.

If, like me, you can’t rely on your natural ability to excel at flexibility, here are 4 keys to help you cultivate this in yourself.

1.   There are no sacred cows. Your goals may be sacred, but your strategy sure isn’t. All that matters is whether or not it works. If the answer is no, you should feel free—compelled, even—to chuck it out the window and try something else.

2.   A plan is still important. You might be tempted to think creating a game plan to accomplish your goals is a waste of time. Far from it. After all, having a plan is what gets us in motion, moving toward our goals. Without it, we would likely never get out of the gate. Just remember to hold it loosely as obstacles arise.

3.   Possibility thinking is the secret sauce. Shifting gears from one strategy to the next presumes that you believe a better strategy exists, even if you don’t know what it is yet. This is part of what helps you hold your plans loosely. Focus on staying out of a place of scarcity, and in a place of abundance that says, “My best thinking, and my best strategies have yet to be discovered. There are always more ways to get there than I can see right now.”

4.   Show your work. If you’re leading a team, this is a critical final step. You must explain your rationale for changing strategy to your team, and you must enroll them in your vision. This sets your team up for alignment with you, and the willingness to follow where you lead, even if it’s disruptive in the short term. As a leader, you must also be intentional about building a culture where flexibility, change, and risk taking are affirmed, so when you display these traits, they are seen as positive, not negative.

I take my goals very seriously. Too seriously to think my strategies are sacred. Think of it like driving to an important event. Maybe the road you initially chose was the quickest way—until an accident ground everything to a stop. If you can turn off the road and find a better route, do you take it or just creep along and miss your meeting?

The way to achieve our goals is to hold them tightly and our strategies loosely.Megan Hyatt Miller

The key to developing your own goal setting super power is to develop your tolerance for “changing your route” as often as you need to get to your goal.

Question: What route adjustments (or changes in strategy) do you need to make, today, to accomplish your goals? Share your answer on Facebook, Twitter, or LinkedIn.

https://michaelhyatt.com/nail-your-goals/

Disclosure

Lansing Street Advisors is a registered investment adviser with the State of Pennsylvania..
To the extent that content includes references to securities, those references do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or hold such security as information is provided for educational purposes only. Articles should not be considered investment advice and the information contain within should not be relied upon in assessing whether or not to invest in any securities or asset classes mentioned. Articles have been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Securities discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Please keep in mind that a company’s past financial performance, including the performance of its share price, does not guarantee future results.
Material compiled by Lansing Street Advisors is based on publicly available data at the time of compilation. Lansing Street Advisors makes no warranties or representation of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to the use such data.
Material for market review represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results.
Indices that may be included herein are unmanaged indices and one cannot directly invest in an index. Index returns do not reflect the impact of any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. The index information included herein is for illustrative purposes only.

1.  Gold Has Beat Buffett Berkshire Since 2000.

click to enlarge

1. Stock Buybacks Down 46% In 2^nd Quarter…Lowest Since 2012.

1.PAWZ Pet ETF Almost A Double Off Bottom.

PAWZ ETF

1. High Grade Bond Issuance Already Sets Record

1. Russell 1000 Value is a Short of Technology Sector.

The Big (Tech) Short

In the Great War, there are many battlefronts. Investors furiously debate the role of low interest rates, outdated accounting rules, and passive flows on value investing. Rather than get caught up in an academic discussion, let’s look at the companies you actually get when you buy a value portfolio. Exhibit 4 shows the sector composition of Russell 1000 Value and Growth.

Value investors are making an epic 34.7% short bet against the technology sector. Moreover, this bet is more than fully explained by their underweight to the FAANG+M companies. Value has a meager 1.4% position in FAANG+M compared to Growth’s 39.4%. Not only are value investors short tech, but they are short Big Tech. And in a big way.

Exhibit 4

Russell 1000 Value vs. Growth Exposures

1. Will the Huge Spike in U.S. Savings Rate Lead to Pent Up Demand?

The Daily Shot https://blogs.wsj.com/dailyshot/2020/07/31/the-daily-shot-online-job-seeking-activity-slows/

1.U.S. 10 Year Break Even Inflation Numbers Triple Off Covid Low  .50 to 1.63%

Breakeven run-away train

US Inflation expectations (10-yr breakeven) rise to their highest level since February 20: 1.63%.

https://themarketear.com/

1. 88% of Apple’s Trillion Valuation Has Been Generated Since Tim Cook Took Charge.

Tim Cook: The Apple CEO has built a cordial relationship with President Trump, despite a number of touchy issues, mostly involving Apple’s presence in China. Since Cook succeeded Steve Jobs as CEO in August 2011, Apple shares have rallied 750%. In other words, about 88% of Apple’s valuation has been generated with Cook in charge.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/apples-is-nearly-worth-2-trillion-should-you-sell-the-stock-51596846734?mod=past_editions

1. Last Week Was Biggest Equity Outflows Year to Date..

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading

Goldman notes last week saw the biggest equity outflows YTD..

1. Internet Bubble QQQ +2400% 1990-2000….Today 201-2020 +900%

From Nasdaq Dorsey Wright

1. Percentage of Stocks in S&P That Have Printed a New Rally High.

The pie chart below shows the percent of stocks in the S&P 500 that have printed a new rally high since the market bottom on March 23, broken down by month.

1. How the S&P 500 Index has done the Three Months Ahead of the Election can Predict who will win the Election in November….87% Accuracy.

LPL Research

1. Tech Sector ETFs record Inflows.

1. Euro Currency Spike

1. Ecommerce–10 Years Growth in 3 Months

And new data from consulting firm McKinsey shows in the US market, the slice of the retail pie comprised of online sales has climbed from around 15 per cent to more than 30 per cent.

“If you’re feeling whiplash, it might be the 10 years forward we just jumped in 90 days’ time,” McKinsey said.

US ecommerce penetration. Pic: McKinsey
https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/five-fifty-the-quickening#

2. Fifth Worse GDP Quarter Ever and Big Tech Books $200B in Sales.

Official quarterly data on US real GDP goes back to 1947, and today’s -32.9% annualised decline for real Q2 is the worst over this period. However, we can splice together a longer series back a century and find that five quarters have been worse than that reported today. **

These occurred in the immediate post-WWII economy, during the early 1930s depression and the associated double dip in 1937-38, and also in the ‘forgotten’ depression of 1920-21.

So, the US is not quite in unprecedented economic times. Many other countries are closer to this though. As you’ll see on page 20-22 of my new monthly chart book (link here) this will likely be the worst year for the UK economy for 310 years. For most of the G7, 2020 will be the worst peacetime year for the economy on record. Again, the US is less severe. On our estimates, 2020 will be the 9th worst year since 1790 and the 6th worst year since 1900. See the chart book for more.

** We have quarterly nominal US GDP data back to 1920 and for this chart have inflation adjusted this series. There is also a real GNP series from the NBER calculated between 1921-1939. The results are broadly similar to our calculations, but we have used ours to avoid splicing multiple series together.

3. Amazon is clobbering Walmart in consumer spending, according to debit-card transactions

Looking at the week of Oct. 6, 2019, Amazon is cruising along with about 18% higher spend than the previous year. For that same period, Walmart is down by 5%.

Amazon is clobbering Walmart in consumer spending, according to debit-card transactions

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/amazon-is-clobbering-walmart-in-consumer-spending-according-to-debit-card-transactions-2020-07-29?mod=home-page

4. Huge Down GDP Print But….Bullish Earnings Season So Far

Thu, Jul 30, 2020 At our Earnings Explorer tool available to clients on our website, we provide a real-time look at beat rates for both EPS and sales.  Below is a snapshot from the website showing both the EPS and sales beat rates for US companies reporting earnings on a rolling 3-month basis.  Currently, 64.61% of companies have exceeded consensus analyst EPS estimates over the last three months, while 63.75% of companies have beaten consensus sales estimates over the same time frame.

In looking at the chart, you can see a big spike in the EPS beat rate over the last few weeks.  Since earnings season began on July 13th, nearly 80% of companies have posted stronger than expected EPS numbers.  That’s a huge beat rate and suggests that analysts were too bearish on Q2 numbers heading into July.  The revenue beat rate held up much better than EPS beats throughout the first half of 2020, but it too is on the upswing this season.

We also monitor how share prices are reacting to earnings reports.  So far this earnings season, the average stock that has reported Q2 numbers has gained 1.31% on its earnings reaction day.  That compares to a historical average one-day change of just 0.06% on earnings reaction days.  As shown below, stocks that have beaten EPS estimates this season have gained 2.2% on earnings reaction days, while companies that have missed EPS estimates have fallen 1.89%.  It’s rare to see beats gaining more than misses decline, but that’s what is happening this season.  Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options for our best research available.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/bullish-earnings-season-so-far

5. Nasdaq 100 Fastest 91 Day Rally in 20 Years.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-30/nasdaq-s-4-trillion-rally-poised-to-heat-up-on-earnings-sweep?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social&sref=GGda9y2L

6. Global Gold Supply Chain.

Visual Capitalist

How COVID-19 Shutdowns Impact the Gold Supply Chain

Chains are only as strong as their weakest link—and recent COVID-19 shutdowns have affected every link in the gold supply chain, from producers to end-users.

Increased investor demand for gold coupled with a constrained supply has led to high prices and a bullish market, which has been operating despite these pressures on the supply chain.

Today’s infographic comes to us from Sprott Physical Bullion Trust and it outlines the gold supply chain and the impacts COVID shutdowns have had on the gold market.

The Ripple Effect: Stalling a Supply Chain

Disruptions to the gold supply chain have rippled all the way from the mine to the investor:

1. Production
Some gold mines halted production due to the high-risk to COVID-19 exposure, reducing the supply of gold. In many nations, operations had to shut down as a result of COVID-19 based legal restrictions.

2. Delivery
Strict travel regulations restricted the shipment of gold and increased the costs of delivery as less air routes were available and medical supplies were prioritized.

3. Refinery
Refineries depend on gold production for input. A reduction in incoming gold and the suspension of labor work shortened the supply of refined gold.

4. Metal Traders
Towards the other end of the gold supply chain, traders have faced both constrained supply and increased cost of delivery. These increased costs have translated over to end-users.

5. The End Users
Higher demand, lower supply, and increased costs have resulted in higher prices for buyers of gold.

7. Canceled College Sports Games Put Millions on the Line for ESPN …College Football $800m in Advertising.

College football accounted for about $793 million in advertising at ESPN, ABC, and their related networks, estimates Standard Media Index, which tracks advertising spending. That’s almost four times as much as their closest rival, Fox-

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-30/espn-could-lose-millions-with-college-sports-in-coronavirus-flux?sref=GGda9y2L

8. Mumbai’s slums test lockdown logic-57% of People Sampled in Mumbai Slum Have Coronavirus Antibodies.

Una Galani

MUMBAI (Reuters Breakingviews) – Just maybe, India’s financial capital can start to look beyond its Covid-19 lockdown. An antibody testing study has found that a whopping 57% of people sampled in densely populated slum areas of Mumbai had coronavirus antibodies. Some 40% of the city’s 20 million or so residents live in similar settings, where toilets and water supply are often shared and social distancing is impossible. The result tests the logic of the city’s strict lockdown.

The study is credible, with municipal authorities partnering with the respected Tata Institute of Fundamental Research and others. The randomised sample of nearly 7,000 covers folks from three areas of the city. It’s evidence that crowding speeds transmission and that low-income groups are more vulnerable to infection. Just 16% of people sampled in more affluent parts of the same three areas of Mumbai were found to have the antibodies. 

Encouragingly, the study suggests an infection mortality rate of between 0.05% and 0.01% based on official death numbers – that’s low and would remain so, relative to many other estimates, even if the numerator is under-reported.

The findings will support politicians as they tweak policies that have reduced Mumbai to a shadow of itself. The din of rush hour traffic is no more, offices mostly sit empty, street-food vendors have disappeared and restaurants closed to diners. Public transport is curtailed, and residents are subject to a 9 p.m. curfew. Most restrictions have been in place for four months, making India’s lockdown one of the world’s strictest.

The extreme shutdown may have initially avoided worse pressure on an under-resourced health system. But the new study suggests the measures are now impoverishing more than protecting the poor. Armies of daily-wage earners have been left dependent on food rations. With so many of them infected, Mumbai might consider loosening restrictions, enabling more people to return carefully to work.

That might, of course, increase the risk of infection for wealthier groups where lifestyle diseases are more common in Mumbai, underlining how important local factors are in managing Covid-19. And one study, however well structured, can’t provide all the answers for a given city, either. But this one does raise the possibility that if any community in the world has achieved something like herd immunity, it may be the residents of Mumbai’s slums.https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-breakingviews/breakingviews-mumbais-slums-test-lockdown-logic-idUSKCN24V09Z

9. For Amazon Anti-Trust…It’s All  About Treatment of 3^rd Party Sellers.

Jeff Bezos’s antitrust grilling was a reminder of Amazon’s power over its sellers

Jeff Bezos was calm and polite in his first congressional appearance. But he did nothing to quiet a huge concern.

By Jason Del Rey@DelRey  Jul 29, 2020, 10:09pm EDT

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Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos testifies remotely before the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust, Commercial and Administrative Law hearing on “Online Platforms and Market Power” on July 29, 2020. Graeme Jennings/AFP via Getty Images

The world’s richest man, Jeff Bezos, testified before US Congress members for the first time on Wednesday, but he said little to assuage one of their biggest concerns: that Amazon’s grip on online retail gives it the power to make or break small merchants on a whim.

Bezos, along with the CEOs of Apple, Google, and Facebook, appeared via videoconference before a bipartisan group of 15 US House members who have been investigating the four tech giants over the last year. The stated goal of this antitrust subcommittee’s investigation has been to document whether these corporate titans abuse their power in industries ranging from retail to social networking, and to evaluate whether the country’s antitrust laws are modern enough to guard against such abuses.

“Their ability to dictate terms, call the shots, upend entire sectors, and inspire fear represent the powers of a private government,” Rep. David Cicilline (D-RI), the chair of the subcommittee, said in his opening remarks at what was a five-hour-plus hearing.

For Bezos, much of the questioning from lawmakers focused on how Amazon competes against, and profits from, the 1.7 million small and mid-sized merchants who help stock Amazon’s digital shelves. Amazon boasts that 60 percent of its retail sales now come courtesy of these sellers rather than from Amazon stocking and reselling goods itself.

But some Amazon sellers have complained over the years that as Amazon’s market share in US online commerce has increased — to about 40 percent today, which is about seven times more than the next competitor — the company has squeezed and otherwise harmed them in new and different ways because they have no viable online alternatives.

According to Cicilline, Amazon sellers have told the subcommittee that “[Amazon has] never been a great partner, but you have to work with them.”

One concern has been the data Amazon uses from its own merchants to help inform what products to develop under its own private-label brands, such as Amazon Basics. In April, the Wall Street Journal published a report stating that Amazon employees have used data from individual sellers to help Amazon decide which private-label products to pursue. That contradicts what a top Amazon lawyer, Nate Sutton, told Congress earlier this year when he said that Amazon’s policy is to only use data on a product when there are at least two sellers selling it.

On Wednesday, Bezos told Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA), who represents Amazon’s hometown of Seattle, that the company’s investigation into violations of the policy outlined in the Journal report was ongoing. “I’m not satisfied that we have gotten to the bottom of it, and we’ll keep looking at it,” he said.

https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/7/29/21346584/jeff-bezos-amazon-antitrust-hearing-congressional-testimony-power-to-make-or-break-small-merchants

Found at The Big Picture https://ritholtz.com/2020/07/10-thursday-am-reads-298/

10. Change Your Perspective to Create More Happiness

Steps to a more positive outlook

Lynn TaylorTame Your Terrible Office Tyrant

With the arrival of a new decade, many people are thinking about making changes toward creating greater happiness in their lives. But how many people truly make sweeping transformations in a year? One way to overcome this trap, especially for overachievers, is to set smaller, more attainable goals.

Resistance to Change

Change of any kind is a challenge, as inertia is the easiest path. Why does it seem so hard to make a shift? Neuroscience researcher Joe Esperanza says, “We’ve in fact conditioned ourselves to believe all sorts of things that aren’t necessarily true—and many of these things are having a negative impact on our health and happiness.” He says we’re addicted to our beliefs and emotions of our past — and we often see our beliefs as truths, not as ideas we can change.

Nevertheless, the mind believes what you tell it. That being the case, you might as well direct it to something spectacular. You have the ability to mitigate negatives and encourage more positive outcomes. Yes, you can redirect your thoughts, beliefs, and expectations, creating a different reality. Your perspectives can be managed, better.

A Case in Point: The Overachiever

Let’s take the example of the overachiever. If you’re like many, you strive to get ahead all the time, be it at work, home, or in your personal life. You may be striving for that promotion, want to organize your apartment, lose 10 pounds, or reach a fitness goal. But somehow that relaxation point of achievement is elusive because you haven’t yet trained your mind on how to shut it off. You’re constantly going, constantly falling into the same routine of setting big, nearly impossible goals.

Aim to Do Less

What if one of your New Year’s Resolutions were to modify your goals into half or one-third? Setting smaller, achievable objectives, even on a daily or weekly basis, can bring you an enormous sense of contentment and achievement—versus life-changing goals that are mentally and physically exhausting.

Remember when you were a kid? Did you ever play “opposite day,” being a contrarian? It may be time to resist your normal habits and dare I say, strive for less—as that will likely yield much more. Why? Because the old way is likely causing you to be overwhelmed. At the end of the day, you wish you had just set out to do two or three items on your never-ending to-do list, not 10.

This may be about one goal that in itself takes an army to complete adequately. You may have trouble delegating some tasks, be torn about the priorities—or have other obstacles that keep you stuck.

Whatever the reason, be kind to yourself and take some concrete steps toward change:

• Visualize what you want.  Envision the “2.0 you,” whether it’s a more organized person, more financially secure, a top salesperson, individual with a great work/life balance, nature lover, or whatever lifestyle you seek. Picture all the spoils that come with it. Make a vision board, or post images on your computer.
• Make a slow and steady change. If we could wave a wand and have our dreams come to fruition instantly, that would be nice, but sudden change is often fleeting. Steady and thoughtful always prevails. Remember the Aesop’s fable, “The Tortoise and The Hare”?
• Focus your thoughts. You have complete power over what you choose to think about. Be clear and consistent with thoughts of what you want out of life—and know what you don’t want. If you find you’re having negative thoughts, flip them to positive. Whether you’re dealing with a challenging boss, preparing for a job interview or starting a project, first set your thoughts on a positive outcome. Without direction or focus, thoughts are like paddling in a river flowing upstream—you go nowhere. With an undeterred focus, you allow goals to become concrete realities.
• Learn some habit changing techniques. The words and images you use also create your reality. Modify them to work for you. When someone asks you how you are, do you say, “Fine” or “Great?” “Fine” has little energy while the word “Great” exudes power. Being disingenuous is not the goal, but a little positive self-training is useful and empowering! Use powerful words, such as “excited,” “wonderful,” or “fun.” Write down your feelings in a journal, and if negativity has crept in, change your language. Gratitude and appreciation with a healthy dose of self-love are keys to maintaining a positive, happy attitude toward life.
• Self-correct. Be willing to fail. The most successful people had big dreams and didn’t let failures stop them along the way. They used these experiences as building blocks and naysayers never stopped them. Successful people rethink and adjust their sails. If one job, business or relationship isn’t working, revise or reset.  Life is about adjustment and learning—and comfort zones are overrated.

One of my favorite popular quotes about change is, “If you want something you have never had, you must be willing to do something you have never done.” How will you bring meaningful change into your life—differently—in this new decade of opportunity?https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/tame-your-terrible-office-tyrant/202002/change-your-perspective-create-more-happiness?collection=1148006

Disclosure

Lansing Street Advisors is a registered investment adviser with the State of Pennsylvania..
To the extent that content includes references to securities, those references do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or hold such security as information is provided for educational purposes only. Articles should not be considered investment advice and the information contain within should not be relied upon in assessing whether or not to invest in any securities or asset classes mentioned. Articles have been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Securities discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Please keep in mind that a company’s past financial performance, including the performance of its share price, does not guarantee future results.
Material compiled by Lansing Street Advisors is based on publicly available data at the time of compilation. Lansing Street Advisors makes no warranties or representation of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to the use such data.
Material for market review represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results.
Indices that may be included herein are unmanaged indices and one cannot directly invest in an index. Index returns do not reflect the impact of any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. The index information included herein is for illustrative purposes only.

1. Forget FAAANG….Overstock.Com +750% YTD.

OSTK Bottomed at $2.75…..$62 Last

www.stockcharts.com

2. Kodak Spikes 2200% in 2 Days as 62,000 Robinhood Traders Swarm the Stock.

Business Insider.

More than 63,000 Robinhood traders piled into Kodak shares during its 2,100% rally–Ben Winck

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/kodak-stock-price-rally-leads-robinhood-investors-buy-robintrack-retail-2020-7-1029447131#

3. Number of Robinhood User Positions in S&P 500 Stocks.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-lampone-9277986/

4. Velocity of Returns Great Financial Crisis vs. Corona Rally.

www.dorseywright.com

5. Another Insider Selling/Sentiment Chart.

The Daily Shot-WSJ

https://blogs.wsj.com/dailyshot/2020/07/27/the-daily-shot-factors-behind-the-record-setting-rally-in-gold/

6. 17-23% of Bitcoins Lost Forever???

Just as gold bars are lost at sea or $100 bills can burn, bitcoins can disappear from the Internet forever. When all 21 million bitcoins are mined by the year 2040, the actual amount available to trade or spend will be significantly lower.

According to new research from Chainalysis, a digital forensics firm that studies the bitcoin blockchain, 3.79 million bitcoins are already gone for good based on a high estimate—and 2.78 million based on a low one. Those numbers imply 17% to 23% of existing bitcoins, which are today worth around $8,500 each, are lost.

Exclusive: Nearly 4 Million Bitcoins Lost Forever, New Study Says BY JEFF JOHN ROBERTS AND NICOLAS RAPP

https://fortune.com/2017/11/25/lost-bitcoins/

7. Another Sentiment Indicator Hits Record Highs

Macro Charts

@MacroCharts

$NDX Daily Sentiment. The 50d reached Top 2.5% most overbought in history (20 years) and the highest since 2011. See the break below its 50d, similar to Feb 2018, May 2019, Jan 2020. The 50d has also turned down. If history repeats, this could be finished, or very close.

8. Millennial Home Ownership Spike.

Odeta Kushi

@odetakushi

Big jump in the homeownership rate today, mostly driven by younger households. We saw a spike in the number of owners, and a decline in the number of renters. This is the highest rate of homeownership since 2008.

9. A Third of Jobs Lost During Pandemic Have Returned.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/07/16/9-charts-that-show-good-bad-alarming-this-early-economic-recovery/

10. Reading On Paper

I’m staring at a pile of paper on my desk that is my stack of things I found on the Internet that I want to read.

It’s a bit ironic to write this on a blog, but if I come across something on my computer or phone that is longer than a page or two, I print it out and read it on paper.

I have found that when I read on a computer screen or phone, I tend to skim. That’s fine for a short email or a short blog post (as this will be).

But it is not great for an eight page blog post, a white paper on a new crypto project, or a memo from one of my colleagues or portfolio companies.

When I read on paper, I often will use a pen to underline or mark-up the document. I find that leads to better comprehension and retention of the concepts.

I’ve noticed that our children, all of whom are in the mid to late 20s, also read books in paper form and mark them up when reading them. So while reading on paper may be a generational thing, I believe it is also a valuable technique for all ages and all generations.

Found at Abnormal Returns Blog www.abnormalreturns.com

Disclosure

Lansing Street Advisors is a registered investment adviser with the State of Pennsylvania..
To the extent that content includes references to securities, those references do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or hold such security as information is provided for educational purposes only. Articles should not be considered investment advice and the information contain within should not be relied upon in assessing whether or not to invest in any securities or asset classes mentioned. Articles have been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Securities discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Please keep in mind that a company’s past financial performance, including the performance of its share price, does not guarantee future results.
Material compiled by Lansing Street Advisors is based on publicly available data at the time of compilation. Lansing Street Advisors makes no warranties or representation of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to the use such data.
Material for market review represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results.
Indices that may be included herein are unmanaged indices and one cannot directly invest in an index. Index returns do not reflect the impact of any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. The index information included herein is for illustrative purposes only.

1. Internet/Tech Outperformance is Global ….China Tech vs. Market.

YTD-KWEB KraneShares China Internet ETF +34% vs. FXI China Large Cap -3.6%

Story of the Day…..Art Samberg (Pequot Capital Management), Lee Cooperman (Omega Family Office) and Mario Gabelli (Gabelli Asset Management) car pooled together to Columbia MBA.

Art Samberg Obituary….He (Arthur Samberg) carpooled to classes with Lee Cooperman and Mario Gabelli, who also became prominent investors.

Arthur Samberg Built Hedge-Fund Giant With Tech Savvy–Electrician’s son made huge profits in 1990s but closed firm amid insider-trading probe

https://www.wsj.com/articles/arthur-samberg-built-hedge-fund-giant-with-tech-savvy-11595524007

1. Insider Selling Spiking.

Red Flag?  Insider Sales are ramping.

1.Read of the Weekend…The Rescues Ruining Capitalism.

WSJ By Ruchir Sharma

Modern society looks increasingly to government for protection from major crises, whether recessions, public-health disasters or, as today, a painful combination of both. Such rescues have their place, and few would deny that the Covid-19 pandemic called for dramatic intervention. But there is a downside to this reflex to intervene, which has become more automatic over the past four decades. Our growing intolerance for economic risk and loss is undermining the natural resilience of capitalism and now threatens its very survival.

The world economy went into this pandemic vulnerable to another financial crisis precisely because it had already become so fragile, so heavily dependent on constant government help. Governments have offered increasingly easy credit and generous bailouts not only to soften the impact of every crisis since the 1980s but also to try to boost growth during the good times.

1. Put/Call Ratio at Extreme Levels.

Seeking Alpha

Put. Call. Ratio. Thanks to @ThinkTankCharts for an update on one of our favorite charts – the equity put-call ratio on the S&P 500. This is a red flag if there ever was one. The indicator is back at its June 8 level – beyond extreme. Traders are holding considerably more calls than puts right now, indicative of a frothy market with little concern for downside protection. Corrective price moves can happen fast, and capitulation may come quicker.

ThinkTankCharts provides nice context here – major market bottoms are noted when the put-call ratio spikes, but you can also see when the ratio bottomed as the SPX peaked earlier this year. The June 8 spike down is also evident. Is it different this time? There does not appear to by any good reason why it should be different now.

Bottom line: The bells and whistles should be going off when investors see this chart. It is a huge short-term risk flag being waved. Sticking with the components/theme of this chart, maybe now is the time to consider picking up a little insurance by way of put options to mitigate the risk.

1. Valuations…The List of Companies Trading at 10x Sales is Growing

Advisor Perspectives-20/20 In 2020

“Earnings per share” have been heavily manipulated over the last decade through a variety of gimmicks from “cookie jarring reserves,” to massive “share buybacks.” However, “revenue” is a different matter.

Unfortunately, investors are vastly overpaying for sales as well. Scott McNeely discussed the irrationality of paying 10x sales for a company, then CEO of Sun Microsystems, in 1999 in a Bloomberg interview. To wit:

“At 10-times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10-straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. It also assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company.

That assumes zero expenses, which is hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that expects you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10-years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate.

Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? Do you realize how ridiculous those underlying assumptions are? You don’t need any transparency. You don’t need any footnotes.

What were you thinking?”

Many of the most popular “growth” stocks fit this insanity.

Value Is Dead. Long Live Value Investing–by Lance Roberts, Michael Lebowitz of Real Investment Advice, 7/20/20

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2020/07/20/value-is-dead-long-live-value-investing

2. Top 10 Companies with Biggest Losses Per Employee

The team at Tipalti analysed data from the Fortune 500 list for some of the biggest companies in the world, and divided each company’s annual profits and revenue by their number of employees, to reveal the losses or profits, and revenue per employee.

The top ten companies making the biggest losses per employee are:

Other brands making huge losses per employee that you may recognise include:

• CenturyLink – $-123,973 loss per employee
• Wayfair – $-57,969 loss per employee
• Tesla – $-17,952 loss per employee

The research also looked at the companies making the biggest profits per employee.

The top ten companies making the biggest profits per employee are: 

UBER, TESLA AND WAYFAIR ARE LOSING THOUSANDS IN PROFIT PER EMPLOYEE

3. Nasdaq Volume Explosion.

Nicholas Lampone• 1stPrincipal & Director of Trading at Dalzell Trading2h • 2 hours ago

Nasdaq trading volume is “off the charts” this year. (Chart courtesy of The Wall Street Journal) Covid lockdowns, no sports and free online trading, along with a massive sell off and rally. #trading #stocks

https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-lampone-9277986/

4. Excess Reserves of Depository Institutions Banks Building Up Cash Reserves

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXCSRESNS

5. 490 0f 500 S&P Stocks Have Gone Nowhere Since April

Zero Hedge https://www.zerohedge.com/

6. Corporate Insiders Turn Sellers.

7. TikTok Usage Skyrocketing.

The numbers show surging demand for TikTok’s pure-play short-video platform. Sensor Tower data shows that downloads of the app have soared past its competitors over the last three quarters as more and more Americans take to TikTok as the perfect escape for turbulent times. In another milestone, Netflix added TikTok to its short list of competitors for the first time in its letter to investors last week, saying the app’s growth was “astounding.”

TikTok Is Most Popular

The short-video app’s downloads per quarter has soared past Big Tech

Source: Sensor Tower

TikTok Ban Would Leave a Giant Social-Media Hole–The widely used short-video app, owned by Chinese company Bytedance, is under threat by the Trump administration. Here’s what’s at stake.   

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-07-22/tiktok-ban-would-leave-hole-instagram-youtube-can-t-easily-fill?srnd=premium&sref=GGda9y2L

8. Here’s Who Pockets the Savings From Payroll Tax Holiday.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/22/these-people-would-benefit-the-most-from-a-payroll-tax-holiday.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain&__source=twitter%7Cmain

9. Harvard scientists say adopting these 5 habits in middle-age can add years to your life

Jennifer Fabiano

Harvard researchers have previously outlined healthy habits for increasing an individual’s overall life expectancy, but new research shows that implementing these habits at age 50 can also reduce a person’s risk for chronic disease later in life. In a new study, researchers at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health expanded on the 2018 study that established five habits in middle health that can boost life expectancy.

This follow-up study, which was published in BMJ, suggests that implementing these five habits into your life can increase your likelihood of enjoying extra years of overall good health.

5 habits to have in middle-age to ward off disease later in life

By now you are probably wondering what those five healthy habits are. Listed below are the five practices you should begin in middle-age to ward off chronic disease later in life:

1. Healthy eating.
2. Maintaining a healthy weight.
3. Exercising regularly.
4. Limiting alcohol consumption.
5. Not smoking.

These habits are measured in the following ways:

1. A “healthy diet” was determined as a high score on the Alternate Healthy Eating Index. You can get started by practicing clean eating. 
2. A “healthy weight” is determined by having a body mass index between 18.5 and 24.9 kg/m2.
3. “Regular exercise” means that an individual exercised a minimum of 30 minutes a day of moderate to vigorous activity. 
4. Moderate alcohol consumption means an individual consumes one or fewer servings per day for women and two or fewer servings per day for men.
5. Not smoking means that individuals refrain from smoking in their daily lives.

“Previous studies have found that following a healthy lifestyle improves overall life expectancy and reduces risk of chronic diseases such as diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer, but few studies have looked at the effects of lifestyle factors on life expectancy free from such diseases,” says lead author Yanping Li, senior research scientist in the Department of Nutrition at the university, in a statement. “This study provides strong evidence that following a healthy lifestyle can substantially extend the years a person lives disease-free.”

How many more years of disease-free living do these habits gain you?

The researchers used data from two prior studies, which allowed them to look at data form 73,196 won over 34 years and 38,366 men over 28 years. Like many health matters, the results were different for women and men.

The women who practiced none of the five healthy habits at age 50 lived only 23.7 years free of diabetes,  cardiovascular diseases, and cancer. The women who did practice either four or five of these healthy habits lived 34.4 more years free of these chronic diseases. This data suggests that there is a potential gain of nearly 11 healthy years for women who maintained these habits in middle age.

Men saw slightly less benefit from practicing these healthy habits. The men who did not practice any of these habits at age 50 could expect to live 23.5 years free of chronic disease, while men who did practice health habits lived an average of 31.1 healthier years, which is a potential gain of almost eight disease-free years.

Which of these healthy habits matter the most?

The researchers found that smoking and obesity most negatively affected long-term health outcomes. Individuals who were obese or were heavy smokers had the lowest disease-free life expectancy.

Jennifer Fabiano is an SEO reporter at Ladders.

More:According to ScienceAdviceDietExercise

https://www.theladders.com/career-advice/harvard-scientists-say-adopting-these-5-habits-in-middle-age-can-add-years-to-your-life

10. Five Major Pitfalls That Stop Entrepreneurs by Year 2

By Joshua Stowers, StaffApril 8, 2020

CherriesJD / Getty Images

• New businesses often fail when entrepreneurs don’t have the resources or knowledge to properly execute their ideas.
• No one likes to fail, but if you do, use the valuable experience you gained to lead your next endeavor to success.
• Entrepreneurs tend to fail right before peaking in the business cycle. The peak usually comes after a pitfall, which is where many entrepreneurs lose momentum. 

The fear of failure haunts many small business owners. Not only is the road to entrepreneurship often filled with unexpected detours and potholes, but maintaining a high level of creativity and motivation while navigating these roadblocks can be a nail-biting process. 

Any successful business venture needs working capital, a sustainable business model and a good understanding of market trends. But what causes a business to fail when you are checking all of those boxes? The answer might depend on how much money your business has or how quickly you can overcome your fear of failure. 

What constitutes entrepreneur failure?

You need a lot more than a great idea to be a successful entrepreneur. Even if you have a brilliant idea for a business, your venture is likely to fail if you don’t have the resources or knowledge to execute it properly. Insufficient marketing, a lackluster business plan or even the wrong legal structure can prevent your business from thriving. 

The reasons why many entrepreneurs fail early are endless, some being unique to the business owner. The key is to define what “failure” means to you and your business, according to Bill Demas, CEO of Conviva. 

“At some level, almost all entrepreneurs fail,” Demas told Business News Daily. “But at the same time, there is a notion that an entrepreneur can’t fail because failure is part of the learning experience, and from those experiences, the entrepreneur builds a business with a higher likelihood of success.” 

Demas said it’s better to learn from others’ failures than your own. But if you’ve already experienced a business failure, you should examine the reasons why your startup failed and apply that knowledge to your next venture. 

When you’re thinking about how to start a business, one of the most important things to consider is how you will fund your startup. Without working capital, you’ll have difficulty bringing any business idea to life and meeting your overall company goals. This means finding money to start your company – such as through crowdfunding, pitching your idea to potential investors or peer-to-peer lending – and then managing cash flow properly once your business starts generating revenue. 

If your startup has no money, failure is likely to be the ultimate result, said Cheryl Roberts, owner of Lexie Jordan Jewelry. 

“Let’s face it – even if you started your business as a mission with no money focus, you still need money to further your mission,” she said. “So, the definition of failure as an entrepreneur is failing to make enough money to further your business.” 

While generating money is an integral part of entrepreneurship, it’s not the be-all and end-all of success for business owners. Let’s say you’ve defined what failure means to your company and raised the necessary funding – what else could cause your business to fail? 

Fear of failure is normal for entrepreneurs; it’s how you maintain interest in your business and motivation in the face of your fears that matters most. Entrepreneurs typically fail not because their businesses fail, but because they lose interest and give up when they don’t see the anticipated results after working for a while, according to Hassan Alnassir, founder and owner of the toy company Premium Joy. 

“You need something to motivate you to keep going despite any defeat you feel inside while building your business,” Alnassir said. “A simple way to get motivated consistently and avoid failing as an entrepreneur is to keep an inspiring photo in front of you at all times while working. I personally keep a photo of my little child on the computer desk to push me forward and remain motivated while working on my business.” 

Do entrepreneurs always benefit from a business failure experience?

Many entrepreneurs do benefit from business failure. As an entrepreneur, you gain knowledge that most people don’t have because you took a significant risk and saw how it played out. 

Failures might seem career-ending at first, but if you think of failing as a learning opportunity, it can be beneficial to your future business ventures. It’s all about your mindset and ability to quickly move forward, according to Georgette Pascale, founder of Pascale Communications. 

“The truth is entrepreneurs have to have thick skin, take the blow of their misstep, and know there will eventually be a benefit from this experience,” Pascale said. “They’ll learn something new and learn not to repeat mistakes again. Most importantly, this experience should be taken in stride, and plans must be made to move onward quickly.” 

In fact, many successful entrepreneurs failed at least once and came back with the wisdom to succeed, such as Steve Jobs, Bill Gates and Ariana Huffington. [Read related article: Starting Over: How to Move on When Your Business Fails] 

When in the business cycle do most entrepreneurs tend to fail?

Entrepreneurs tend to fail right before peaking in the business cycle. The peak usually comes after a pitfall, which is when many entrepreneurs lose momentum. If you can make it through the recovery process after a major pitfall, expansion is often on the horizon. 

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Employment Statistics program helps identify the key cyclical phases with the CES peak-trough tables. These phases mark the beginning of periods of positive or negative growth in your company’s life cycle. Each phase usually fluctuates monthly, depending on your product or service. 

While the exact point when an entrepreneur is at risk of failure varies, most fail after they’ve been in business for a year or two, according to Andrew Gunderman, CEO of Vyra. 

“This is because things get much more real around this time,” he said. “You’re likely bringing on new employees, which means increased costs. When it’s just you and the founders and you’re not taking on salary, it’s easy because you can pivot on a dime.” 

Gunderman says having to pay employees makes it harder to pivot, and the cost of having those employees can put you in a position in which there’s no way out. This can lead to early bankruptcy. 

Five major pitfalls that stop entrepreneurs by year two

Below are the five major reasons why entrepreneurs fail by their second year in business, according to Amanda Kendall, owner of Elevating Profits. 

1. Cash flow

When starting a business, entrepreneurs are usually focused on the next sale and the next client. They often don’t think about the long term or plan for the future. Cash flow can make or break a business. A business without profits can survive for years, but a business without cash flow will fail within months. Planning for how to maintain positive cash flow can get your business through the lulls that are bound to happen.

2. ‘I have to do it all’ syndrome

Entrepreneurs wear multiple hats when they start a business. Sometimes they forget that, in order to grow, they must pass some (if not most) of those hats to other people along the way. This mentality of “I can do it all, faster and better” sinks many entrepreneurs. Learn to exit roles, and have a plan of what that looks like. Who fills that role as you exit it? What does that free you up to do now? What is the next role you will exit? 

3. Sales and marketing

Entrepreneurs often think that all their friends and family will buy from them when they start out. Sadly, this is often not the case. You need to have a strategy for sales and marketing. Know who your ideal client is, and then go teach them why they need your service or product. If you wait for the sales to just come in, you will be waiting a long time. 

4. Underpricing

Entrepreneurs want to be competitive in the market, so they price themselves under the competition to gain more clients. This results in lots of hours for little to no profits. When an entrepreneur does not plan out their pricing intentionally, they are offering a service that costs them money to fulfill. Pricing for profitability is essential, yet too rarely done. 

5. No big vision

When entrepreneurs start their business, they know what they want to do, who they want to help and why, but they don’t plan out what that will look like in three to 15 years or what the final exit plan is. An exit strategy gives you a solid map to follow for the entire life of your business. Without it, you are on a road trip wearing a blindfold. 

Tips that could keep an entrepreneur from failing

The best way to successfully launch your startup is to establish short-term and long-term goals. Having top-notch operational capabilities – including good management, financial planning and a solid work-life balance – can help your company make it beyond its second year. Here are seven tips to help you keep your business running past the two-year mark. 

1. Surround yourself with the right people. People who believe in you can provide great support and advice. This can help you stay focused on the big picture of your business, no matter what pitfalls come your way. 
2. Keep up to date with your industry. It’s crucial to continue your research and gather as much knowledge as possible about your market, because the business landscape can change quickly. You need to look ahead so you can improve your products or services to stay on trend and in demand. 
3. Plan for continuous growth. Manasi Gangan, founder and CEO of Nested Bean, says planning for continuous growth helps keep entrepreneurs from failing. You can plan for continuous growth by creating inflection points through an ongoing cycle of product innovation, then channel diversification and, finally, geographic diversification. You must create these inflection points when things are good and you’re growing, not when the plateau hits. 
4. Share your vision. Share your vision by hiring a diverse team with entrepreneurial spirit. You should hire people who share your vision and believe in you and your ideas. 
5. Inspire others. Foster a culture of learning and a productive mentality until it becomes the norm for your team. You should create smaller goals and benchmarks to keep your team motivated and on course. 
6. Create a culture of learning, iterating and automating processes. A big factor in building a successful business is swinging for the fences and trying new things until you find something that works for you. 
7. Stay motivated. Take your long-term, overarching goals and break them down into smaller tasks and goals. Then, when you have wins, celebrate them! This makes the big goals seem less daunting and more easily achievable. [Read related article: 101 Reasons Being an Entrepreneur Rocks]

https://www.businessnewsdaily.com/15677-pitfalls-that-stop-entrepreneurs.html

Lansing Street Advisors is a registered investment adviser with the State of Pennsylvania..
To the extent that content includes references to securities, those references do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or hold such security as information is provided for educational purposes only. Articles should not be considered investment advice and the information contain within should not be relied upon in assessing whether or not to invest in any securities or asset classes mentioned. Articles have been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Securities discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Please keep in mind that a company’s past financial performance, including the performance of its share price, does not guarantee future results.
Material compiled by Lansing Street Advisors is based on publically available data at the time of compilation. Lansing Street Advisors makes no warranties or representation of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to the use such data.
Material for market review represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results.
Indices that may be included herein are unmanaged indices and one cannot directly invest in an index. Index returns do not reflect the impact of any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. The index information included herein is for illustrative purposes only.

1. ESG /Sustainable Funds Seeing Record Inflows….Another Trend that Accelerated During Corona.

1. The Ratio Between Big Tech NDX and Small Caps IWM is Hitting 3-Standard Deviations

The ratio between the Nasdaq 100 Index and Russell 2000 Index is the highest since the last tech boom between December 1999 and June 2000, approaching a three-standard-deviation move from its mean quarterly average since 1985

1. Fund Flows Still Favor Bonds Over Stocks.

Fund Flows Favor Bonds Over Stocks, but Returns May Not Follow

Posted by lplresearch After pulling back in the first quarter of 2020, flows into bond mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) dominated stocks in the second quarter. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the second quarter is consistent with recent history, as bond flows have topped stock flows in 15 of 18 quarters going back to the start of 2016.  “While there may be some natural explanations for bond flows, there is also concern that bond enthusiasm has moved toward an extreme after a multi-decade bull run,” said LPL Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick.

https://lplresearch.com/2020/07/14/fund-flows-favor-bonds-over-stocks-but-returns-may-not-follow/

2. Another Way of Looking at Growth vs. Value….Outperformance Surpasses 1999 on Percentage Basis.

American Funds

-Greetings from 2030: Growth investing for the next decade=Anne-Marie Peterson is an equity portfolio manager with 24 years of experience. She also covers U.S. retail as an investment analyst. She earned a bachelor’s in economics from the University of California, Irvine, and is a CFA charterholder.

https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/growth-investing-next-decade.html

3. 74% of Fund Managers Thing Tech Trade “Most Crowded”…..Highest in Survey History.

The chart–BofA’s July Global Fund Manager shows that investors have gone all in on U.S. tech stocks. Some 74% of those surveyed think that is the most “crowded trade,” the highest reading in the survey’s history. Here is that chart:

This strategist says investors are in the ‘forest of make believe’ when it comes to growth stocks

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-strategist-says-investors-are-in-the-forest-of-make-believe-when-it-comes-to-growth-stocks-2020-07-14?mod=home-pag

4. New Home Applications Hit Record –XHB Homebuilder ETF Breaks Out

XHB -Homebuilder ETF

www.stockcharts.com

New-Home Applications Hit a Record in June

Feverpitched/Dreamstime.com

It isn’t just existing homes flying off the lots. In another positive sign for demand through the summer home buying season, the volume of mortgage applications to purchase a new home in June soared 54.1% compared with the same month in 2019, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s June Builder Application Survey. 

On a year over year basis, that increase is the highest in the eight-year history of the monthly index, which measures buyers’ interest in purchasing a new home by tracking the application volume from home builders’ mortgage subsidiaries, according to the MBA.

The survey is the latest sign that the coronavirus’s shock to the housing market postponed a historic spring home buying season instead of canceling it entirely. New-home applications this June rose 20% from May levels, an anomaly compared with previous years when the survey registered decreasing or flat volume in June compared with May. 

New Homes WantedApplications to purchase a new home rose sharply in June, which is typically whenhome buying levels off.Source: Mortgage Bankers AssocationNote: Builder Application Survey Market Index, not seasonally adjusted

2020201920172018Jan.JuneDec.01002003002017xAprilx174.82

“The new home purchase market continues to recover,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting, in a press release. “MBA estimates that new home sales in June increased 15 percent to a seasonally adjusted pace of 774,000 units – which would be the strongest level of activity since January 2020.”

Yet Another Sign of a Housing Recovery: New-Home Applications Hit a Record in June

https://www.barrons.com/articles/yet-another-sign-of-a-housing-recovery-new-home-applications-hit-a-record-in-june-51594760240?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_3

5. Work from Home ETF—WFH.

https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/WFH

https://www.direxion.com/product/direxion-work-from-home-etf?keyword=wfh%20etf&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIm4T46_rO6gIVjLbICh3H7AKMEAAYASAAEgLnlfD_BwE

6. Capital Markets Revenue Hit Highest Levels Since 2015

This chart from S&P shows capital markets revenue at larger investment banks already surging above $40 billion in the first quarter, the highest level in five years.

Capital markets fees are key

The credit-rating firm also charted how JPMorgan and Citigroup have lead their peers in capital markets revenue in most years since 2010

Major banks are hauling in ‘big fees’ from debt and equity underwriting during the coronavirus crisis

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/major-banks-are-hauling-in-big-fees-from-debt-and-equity-underwriting-during-the-coronavirus-crisis-2020-07-14?mod=home-page

7. Everyone is Commenting on Stocks Being Traded on Robinhood…..Here are the Top ETFs for The New Day Traders.

Robinhood’s Favorite ETFs

On June 4, we pulled Robinhood’s top 20 most popular ETFs, listed in the table below, and were able to identify a few investment trends of our own:

Sources: Robintrack, ETF.com; data as of June 4, 2020

Robinhood Traders Love A Good Story

https://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/robinhoods-favorite-etfs?nopaging=1

8. Robinhood “Revolutionized Brokerage Industry”  LOL

“Robinhood has made the financial markets accessible to the masses and, in turn, revolutionized the decades-old brokerage industry,” Andrew Reed, a partner at Sequoia, said after last month’s fund-raising.

LOL LOL LOL Total Comedy…..”Revolutionized Decades Old Brokerage Industry”    Oh yeah…It’s new and revolutionary to get a new generation to believe in day trading…..It’s only been around since the buttonwood tree.  Seriously WTF is this guy thinking at Sequoia-.)

Average account size $4500 whipping around options…Yikes.

Total Payments From High-Frequency Trading Firms 

What retail brokers make from selling customer orders, per dollar in the the average account.  

Robinhood Has Lured Young Traders, Sometimes With Devastating Results

Its users buy and sell the riskiest financial products and do so more frequently than customers at other retail brokerage firms, but their inexperience can lead to staggering losses.

9. Gun Sales—June– Background Checks for Firearms Up 136% Year Over Year.

WSJ -Record Number of Americans Buy Guns Gun sales began rising to unusual highs in March, as coronavirus cases began surging in the U.S. and government-ordered lockdowns led to the highest unemployment levels since the Great Depression. The Federal Bureau of Investigation processed 7.8 million background checks for gun purchases from March to June, according to National Shooting Sports Foundation, a firearms industry trade group.

In June, background checks for firearms were up 136%, compared to a year earlier, according to the trade group, which gives the best proxy for gun sales. Background checks in June for civilians seeking a license to carry were the highest since the FBI began conducting checks 20 years ago. By Julie Wernau and Zusha Elinson

https://www.wsj.com/articles/record-numbers-of-americans-try-to-buy-guns-11594719000?mod=itp_wsj&ru=yahoo

10. 31 SMALL STEPS TO UPGRADE YOUR LIFE AND BE BULLETPROOF

By: TEAM ASPREY Affiliate Disclosure & Health Claims

• Here’s the secret to transforming your diet, fitness, and mindset: Make small, positive changes that build up over time.
• When you upgrade your biology, you’re biohacking your way to a better life. That’s what being Bulletproof is all about.
• Below, you’ll find 31 steps to becoming a stronger, more resilient, more powerful you. Adopt one of the principles, or adopt them all.
• Use the hashtag #IamBulletproof on Instagram, Facebook, and Twitter so we can follow along on your journey.

Read Full Explanations at Dave Asprey Blog

Disclaimer

Lansing Street Advisors is a registered investment adviser with the State of Pennsylvania..
To the extent that content includes references to securities, those references do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or hold such security as information is provided for educational purposes only. Articles should not be considered investment advice and the information contain within should not be relied upon in assessing whether or not to invest in any securities or asset classes mentioned. Articles have been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Securities discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Please keep in mind that a company’s past financial performance, including the performance of its share price, does not guarantee future results.
Material compiled by Lansing Street Advisors is based on publically available data at the time of compilation. Lansing Street Advisors makes no warranties or representation of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to the use such data.
Material for market review represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results.
Indices that may be included herein are unmanaged indices and one cannot directly invest in an index. Index returns do not reflect the impact of any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. The index information included herein is for illustrative purposes only

1. Two Most Valuable Companies Ever to Choose SPAC IPO—Nikola and DraftKings.

WSJ-Twenty companies have used SPAC transactions to go public so far this year. Two of them, Nikola and DraftKings, are the most valuable companies ever to choose the SPAC route over a traditional IPO, according to Kristi Marvin, founder of SPACInsider.com, a website that tracks the sector. By Alexander Osipovich

1. Russell 1000 Growth Index New Highs….Forward P/E 31….MSFT and AAPL 28.5% OF INDEX

1. The Difference in Tech Companies Over 200 Day Moving Average and S&P Companies Over 200 Day Moving Average at All-Time Highs

SentimenTrader notes This rally is ALL tech. While 76% of NASDAQ 100 members are above their 200 dma, less than 40% of S&P members are above their 200 dma. Tech is trying to lift up the index, other stocks aren’t participating. This has pushed the gap in breadth to an all-time high

Dave Lutz at Jones Trading.

1. Three Year Numbers—S&P +38% vs. IJR Small Cap +0.04%

Ryan Patrick Kirlin

1. GROWTH INVESTING HAS DOMINATED SINCE GREAT FINANCIAL CRISIS

SMART BETA OR FACTOR RETURNS SINCE 2008—GROWTH 100% OVER NEXT CLOSEST FACTOR

1. Start with a Couple Small ETFs That Doubled Off Corona Bottom

NERD ETF Chart-Esports and Digital Entertainment

1. For the First Time in 11 Year Bull Run….S&P Gets Above the Range

S&P Above 1 Std. Deviation Expensive

1. Berkshire Hathaway Trades at Lowest Price to Book in 30 Years

Buffett puts some cash to work with buy of Dominion.

1. OPEC cut to its Lowest Level of Production Since 1991

1. How Stocks Predict Presidential Elections

Posted  June 29, 2020  by Joshua M Brown

Ryan Detrick from LPL Financial made my Chart o’ the Day today…

1. 200 North American Exploration Companies Have Gone Bankrupt Since 2015

As oil and gas bankruptcies rise, S&P warns of coming shale producer downgrades–AuthorBill Holland

1. Nasdaq and Russell 2000 Spread Highest Since 2000

Bespoke Investment Group–Nasdaq – Russell Spread Pulling the Rubber Band Tight

The Nasdaq has been outperforming every other US-based equity index over the last year, and nowhere has the disparity been wider than with small caps.  The chart below compares the performance of the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 over the last 12 months.  While the performance disparity is wide now, through last summer, the two indices were tracking each other nearly step for step.  Then last fall, the Nasdaq started to steadily pull ahead before really separating itself in the bounce off the March lows. Just to illustrate how wide the gap between the two indices has become, over the last six months, the Nasdaq is up 11.9% compared to a decline of 15.8% for the Russell 2000.  That’s wide!

1. Money Supply and Inflation

Jack Ablin

Huge Increase in Money Supply But 5 Year CPI Hooking Down

1. Tech Strength Vs. Broader Index Close to 2000 Highs

Dave Lutz Jones Trading

“The Nasdaq Composite is poised to close at a record, while the S&P 500 is poised to close about 7% below its own record – That’s the largest spread between SPX and its own high w/ the Nasdaq Comp at a record since Feb. 2000. Before that, Jan. 1980″ – Callie Cox