TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 29, 2026

1. South Korea Stocks Semis/Memory and Leverage…. -40% from Highs ..Still Above 200day

StockCharts


2. Top South Korean policymakers apologise for single-stock leveraged ETFs

The introduction of single-stock leveraged exchange-traded funds has been blamed for intensifying a rout in the country’s stock market.

SEOUL – Top South Korean policymakers apologised on July 29 over the introduction of single-stock leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have been blamed for intensifying a rout in the country’s stock market.

Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol said he was sorry for introducing the product without careful consideration, responding to a lawmaker’s demand for an apology during a parliamentary session.

At another parliamentary session, the country’s top financial regulator made similar comments, after several lawmakers criticised the release of the funds for exacerbating a sell-off in South Korean equities in July.

“As the ultimate authority responsible for the financial markets, we feel sorry that we have fallen short in properly meeting the public’s expectations” over regulating the product, Lee Eog-weon, chairman of the Financial Services Commission, told the hearing.

The apologies came as the benchmark Kospi plummeted as much as 12.6 per cent on July 29, led by losses in South Korean chip stocks Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which together account for nearly half of the index’s market capitalisation.

The regulator’s approval of single-stock leveraged ETFs has come under fire as South Korean retail investors pumped money into the product, mostly tied to Samsung or SK Hynix, betting on no let-up in robust demand for artificial intelligence.

Shares of Samsung Electronics fell as much as 14 per cent on July 29 in Seoul trading. SK Hynix plunged as much as nearly 20 per cent, despite reporting record earnings. REUTERS

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/top-south-korean-policy-makers-apologise-for-single-stock-leveraged-etfs?ref=


3. Intel INTC -40% from High ….Still Above 200day

StockCharts


4. Roundhill DRAM ETF -33% One-Month

Google Finance


5. Market Cap Losses in AI Related Tech Stocks


6. Vanguard Value ETF VTV +18% vs. Vanguard Growth VUG +3% 2026

YCharts


7. International Dividend Payers DTH +12.5% vs. VUG Vanguard Growth +3% 2026

YCharts


8. Tech Sector Beats Earnings and Trades Down

Tech EPS beats. “Weird times for the Tech sector. On average (so far) this earnings season, a Tech stock that beats EPS estimates is underperforming the S&P 500 by 3.3% the day of/after reporting”.

@kevrgordon


9. Up in Smoke

Semafor


10. Venture Capital Only Funds 1% of American Business

The 99 Percent Funding Rule Every Founder Should Know Before Borrowing Money-INC.

Every funding approach has its purpose. The key is to find the approach that’s best for what you need.

BY TOBI OPEYEMI AMURE

Venture capital just had its best half-year on record, with more than $400 billion raised industry-wide. None of that money was going to you if you were a regular business, however. Only a quarter of one percent of American employers benefited, leaving the other 99 percent to take a different funding approach altogether.

If you’re among that 99 percent, this doesn’t mean your business is uninvestable. It just means you’re playing a different game with its own pros and cons. Every funding approach has its purpose. The key is to find the approach that’s best for what you need.

Here are some of the smart approaches businesses use to get funding.

Start with the money your customers already owe you

The cheapest capital is cash you can collect even sooner—not a loan. Most of it rests in the customer’s purse with a desire to pay early if there’s an incentive. However, before you seek such funding, find out what getting paid early actually costs.

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EE How to Win Over Investors With a Strong Proof of Concept

If you offer a 5 percent discount for annual prepayment on a monthly contract, that works out to roughly a 10 percent discount over a full year. That’s close to what a bank would charge for the same money, minus the wait, the collateral, and the paperwork. You keep your collateral, you’re not personally on the hook if it goes wrong, and there’s no paperwork to fill out.

It’s also quicker to use than it appears on the surface. Sixty percent of small employers sought external finance in the last year, and over half of them used it merely to meet running costs, in effect a timing issue disguised as capital financing.

One founder who runs on this principle is Seyi Ebenezer, founder and CEO of Payaza Africa, a fintech company processing over $4.16 billion in transactions across 26 countries. Ebenezer, who hasn’t raised venture capital, says operational expenses should be funded by operational cash flow, not by borrowing first and asking later.

Bank and SBA credit are cheaper than the alternatives, and slower than you want

Banks are next, and they’re still the best deal if you can wait. The SBA caps how much a lender can add on top of the prime rate, and that allowed markup shrinks as the loan size grows, per the SBA’s 7(a) terms. A $300,000 loan can’t legally exceed 11.25 percent; push past $350,000, and the ceiling drops to under 10 percent.

The catch is speed, or the lack of it. Underwriting takes weeks, and sometimes longer, just at the time when you need it the most, which is last month. According to Ebenezer, bank credit review can run “five to eight weeks”, he says, “and by then, market opportunities may already have passed.” Knowing where to apply is also important; small banks had the highest approval rate of any kind of lender last year, with 57 percent of the people who applied being approved

Grants are real money, and they just came back online

If your business conducts research, then you should look into grants. Congress last year authorized federal SBIR and STTR funding for six months before it ran out, after which it was reauthorized through 2031. The lesson to learn from that gap is this – this money goes to a mission, not your growth plan, and a source that Congress can remove at the drop of a hat isn’t one to build a hiring plan around.

There is no equity diluted, and there is no equity to pay back. But the awards are still relatively small: USDA has capped most of its grants at $175,000, and the Energy Department’s Phase I awards are capped at about $200,000. The largest of the three is $1.2 billion annually dedicated to life science research by NIH, not as growth capital.

Revenue-based financing, and the number in the term sheet does not show you

These deals make cash loans against future sales, which are returned as a portion of monthly earnings until you reach a ceiling: Borrow $50,000 at a cap of 1.3, repay $65,000. In theory, that appears to be a simple, flat-rate charge.

It’s not, however, because you don’t repay it in one lump sum at the end—you repay a little every day from day one. That means the amount you actually still owe keeps shrinking the whole time, so on average you’re only carrying about half the original balance, not the full amount. This is exactly what makes the real cost so much higher than the flat cap suggests.

I run my own company on this kind of financing, and the highest-return hour I’ve spent on any of it was rebuilding a term sheet into a monthly repayment schedule before signing, because that’s exactly where the real number shows up.

None of this makes revenue-based financing a trap to avoid outright, though. It means this option only makes sense for spending that pays back on the same fast timeline the financing assumes. Inventory that turns over in 90 days can carry that cost and still work; a hire you’re planning to keep for years cannot.

Choosing the right fit

These approaches are really the whole funding ladder for the 99 percent, once you see it laid out end to end. From my experience, the only rule that’s held every time is this: cheap, slow money belongs on things with a long payback, and expensive, fast money belongs on things that pay back just as fast. Before signing anything this quarter, ask for the total dollars repaid, not the rate, and run it against your worst month, not your average one.

https://www.inc.com/tobi-opeyemi-amure/funding-rule-founders-entrepreneurs-borrowing-money-business-loans/91380305?utm_source=newsletters&utm_medium=email&oly_enc_id=9218E7578789E9D

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 28, 2026

1. 2026 Stock ETF Flows Off the Charts

Todd Sohn


2. One Month Semiconductors Underperform S&P by -10%….S&P +1.26% vs. SMH -8%

YCharts


3. One-Year Chart AAPL +56% vs. NVDA +19%

YCharts


4. Drawdowns on Some Favorite Retail Investor Names-Irrelevant Investor

The Irrelevant Investor


5. Defense Contractors Spend on Venture Back Military Start Ups

WSJ


6. Airline Margins Around 3-6%….Airline Margins on CC Points 50-60

Statistics


7. Big Banks Are Wading Back Into Commercial Real-Estate Lending-WSJ

Lenders were shunning the category just a few years ago, with investors and analysts warning of a wave of defaults By Ben Glickman

Big banks are on the hunt to grow their loan books and are turning back to an area they had shunned not that long ago.

Just a few years ago, banks couldn’t get away from commercial real-estate loans fast enough, fearing potential losses as office vacancy rates remained elevated after the pandemic.

Now, they are wading back in with a focus on big growth areas like multifamily housing and industrial real estate, which is being fueled by a boom in big data-center projects. They are doing so with tighter lending standards, they say, while still working through some troubled loans stemming from continued distress in some office markets.

Bank of America and U.S. Bancorp’s commercial real-estate loan balances were each up over 8% in the second quarter from a year ago. Truist Financial’s loans were up by about 25%, and PNC Financial Services Group’s were up 15%.

Overall, commercial real-estate mortgage loan originations in the first quarter were up more than 50% from a year earlier, according to a survey by the Mortgage Bankers Association, driven in part by an 80% increase in loans from deposit-taking institutions.

“There’s kind of an awakening that it’s probably safe to go back into the water,” said Citizens Financial Group Chief Executive Bruce Van Saun. “We need earning assets, and we can find some attractive earning assets.”

https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking/big-banks-are-wading-back-into-commercial-real-estate-lending-07faec10


8. South Korean Stock Market—60-70% of Names Trade Below Book Value

Google


9. 30-Year Treasury Yield About to Break Out Above 2007 Levels

Wolf Street


10. Beans and Washing Lettuce

The Pump Club

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 27, 2026

1. S&P 500 Has the Lowest PEG Ratio in History

SPX price-to-earnings growth. “S&P500 now has the lowest PEG ratio in 30+ years”.

@qcapital2020


2. Definition of PEG Ratio

Perplexity


3. Concentration of Returns is Global Stock Market Issue…Emerging Market Concentration Now Higher than U.S.

Capital Group


4. 50% of U.S. GDP is Now Coming From AI

Nick Gerli


5. China Now Dependent on AI Demand

The Kobeissi Letter


6. Retail Traders Picks Having Bad Month


7. Investor Sentiment Falls to Low Bull Reading

Spilled Coffee


8. CNN Fear and Greed Index

CNN


9. Professional Investors in B of A Poll….83% Say No Hikes Before Mid-Terms


10. Perseverance in Life

Personal Perspective: Moving forward in the face of crushing obstacles-Psychology Today Greg O’Brien

Key points

  • Perseverance often means steady faithfulness, not dramatic acts of courage.
  • Forward motion—no matter how slow—is vital when facing crushing obstacles.
  • Studies show perseverance and optimism can help reduce anxiety, depression, and panic.

“If you can’t fly then run, if you can’t run then walk, if you can’t walk then crawl, but whatever you do, you have to keep moving forward.” — Martin Luther King, 1960

I’ve been crawling a lot of late.

I’m not alone in this. Life, at times, offers all of us a haversack of trials—crushing burdens in the moment and beyond.

And we think of giving up.

I’m not saying my challenges are any tougher than others, but just sayin’: in my case, fighting off advancing and bruising Alzheimer’s, cancer, black hole depression, and the death of a son in 2022. No parent should ever have to bury a child.

Some days, the urge just to give up is overwhelming, as the body feels frozen in the moment and the demons are snapping. But I’m trying not to take the bait, and think often of others struggling.

I’m encouraged by Albert Einstein, who said: “You never fail until you stop trying.”

As an aging jock, 76 now, I don’t want to stop trying. So, I’m fighting forward, but can’t say it’s easy in any way.

We all find discernment in many ways. I was raised Irish Catholic, both mother and father with deep Irish roots (47 of 48 branches of our family tree from Erie). I’m now a bit more evangelical, though I haven’t forgotten my roots.

I’m not preaching, just trying to connect; we all come from different places.

I so respect that…

I recently saw the blockbuster summer movie The Odyssey—Director Chris Nolan’s account of the ancient epic about the hero Odysseus trying to return home to his wife and son after serving in the Trojan War and the interminable string of hurdles in his path. Bloodied but unbowed, as William Henley writes in his epic poem “Invictus,” Odysseus never gave up, and through remarkable perseverance, he finally makes it home.

Doug Scalise, my pastor on Outer Cape Cod, emphasized the drive of Odysseus in his Sunday sermon to underscore the faith needed to persevere in life. “There’s something deeply admirable about refusing to quit,” Scalise said. “Sometimes we imagine perseverance as dramatic acts of courage. Occasionally it is. More often it looks like quiet faithfulness over a lifetime.”

Added Scalise, “Have you ever had a week where every day brings another problem, another disappointment, another phone call telling you something you didn’t want to hear?” In a reference to the New Testament Book of Hebrews, he says: “Faith in everything requires perseverance.”

As a wholly imperfect person, I’m trying to find my way out of a valley of depression without wavering. Scalise once reinforced to me that one can’t helicopter out of such a serpentine valley; you have to walk it out.

We often find perseverance in different ways, though forward motion is forward motion.

Experts say perseverance is the confluence of passion and lasting stamina and is more critical in life than talent or intelligence.

The American Psychological Association notes: “People who don’t give up on their goals (or who get better over time at not giving up on their goals) and who have a positive outlook appear to have less anxiety and depression and fewer panic attacks, according to a study of thousands of Americans over the course of 18 years.”

The study, published by the American Psychological Association in the Journal of Abnormal Psychology, says: “Perseverance cultivates a sense of purposefulness that can create resilience against, or decrease, current levels of major depressive disorder, generalized anxiety disorder and panic disorder.”

Lead author of the study, Nur Hani Zainal, M.S., from Pennsylvania State University, notes: “Looking on the bright side of unfortunate events has the same effect because people feel that life is meaningful, understandable and manageable…Our findings suggest that people can improve their mental health by raising or maintaining high levels of tenacity, resilience and optimism.”

No one said it would be easy…Something to be said for baby steps.

As Rev. King once observed, “You don’t have to see the whole staircase, just take the first step.”

Had Odysseus not persevered, had he given up, symbolically he’d still be in the Trojan Horse.

Not a good place for any of us. 

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/on-pluto/202607/perseverance-in-life

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 23, 2026

1. AI Sales Crosses Above Estimated Depreciation

Jack Ablin Cresset-There are, however, early signs that the economics may be turning in the industry’s favor. Data from research firms tracking AI adoption found that global AI sales from hyperscalers and neo-cloud providers reached approximately $25 billion in the first quarter of 2026, surpassing the $21 billion in estimated depreciation tied to their data center investments. That crossover point, where new AI revenue exceeds the depreciation burden of the assets built to generate it, represents a meaningful inflection. It does not mean the return on the entire invested capital base is positive, nor does it resolve questions about competitive saturation or technology obsolescence. But it does suggest that the spending cycle may be approaching economic sustainability.

Cresset


2. A veteran investor says this is the most important AI capex number that markets should watch-BI

Big Tech earnings are here, and the AI capex discussion is set to be the main event for investors.  Rather than focusing on what the current quarter—or even the rest of 2026—may hold, tech veteran Gene Munster says investors should be looking further out.

With the AI trade looking “tired,” the investor says that Q2 earnings are the only thing that can generate fresh momentum. Munster, a longtime tech analyst and now managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, says he’ll be focused most on what hyperscalers are planning for 2027.

“Within the hyperscaler capex conversation, the key metric is next year’s growth,” Munster wrote. “As it stands, the Street is looking for 23% growth in CY27. That said, whisper expectations have moved higher following Google’s $85B and Amazon’s $25B capital raises, which will be spent predominantly late this year and into next year.”

Munster charted the four major hyperscalers’ projected capex estimates for the coming year, and predicts that spending likely won’t cool as much as Wall Street anticipates, leaving a large part of the bull thesis intact.

An earnings chart provided by Munster in his analysis on his web page.  GeneMunster.com

Munster noted that much of his analysis centers on the themes of AI capex spending and cloud computing in Q2 tech earnings, which he described as equally important for investors. But while he made it clear that he sees Microsoft as the weakest link in the hyperscaler chain, even its 20% year-to-date decline isn’t enough to derail the AI infrastructure boom.

“The biggest narrative risk in the capex conversation is Microsoft, where I believe management will guide investors to an unchanged 26% growth rate for next year,” Munster noted. “If three of the four hyperscalers raise their outlook, I believe the AI infrastructure narrative will remain intact.”

https://www.businessinsider.com/tech-earnings-ai-capex-hyperscalers-msft-nvda-gene-munster-2026-7


3. S&P Earnings Momentum at Highest Since 2011


4. Corporate Insider Sales

US Corporate Insiders Are Selling Stocks at a Near Record Pace  By Michael Msika  US executives are selling shares at the second-fastest pace in more than 20 years, a classic red flag to some investors because it suggests people with the most corporate knowledge are wary about markets.

Bloomberg


5. IPO Performance Since 2019-Torston Slok

The Daily Spark


6. Private Equity 7-10 Year Deals…Will they IPO?

WSJ


7. 60% of Americans Now Own Stocks

Ben Carlson


8. U.S. Wages and Salaries vs. GDP

The Kobeissi Letter


9. China Making Women Miserable-Semafor

Semafor


10. Longevity Science 2026: 5 Findings Worth Knowing

By SUCCESS Staff

Most of what people believe about aging was formed decades ago, when the science was thinner and the assumptions were darker. The working model—that physical and cognitive decline are inevitable, that the goal is simply to slow the slide—is being replaced by something more accurate and more demanding.

This year’s research is specific in a way that earlier longevity science wasn’t. Not “exercise more” but exactly how many minutes. Not “stay social” but a precise mortality comparison that changes how seriously you should take it. Not “eat enough protein” but the number that’s almost certainly higher than what you’re currently targeting. Five findings from 2026 that are worth updating your operating assumptions around.

1. Decline Is Not the Default—But Your Mindset Makes It One

The starting premise most people bring to aging is wrong. A Yale School of Public Health studypublished in 2026 tracked nearly 4,000 adults ages 19 to 94 over three years and found that 45% of adults 65 and older improved in at least one area—roughly 32% improved cognitively and 28% improved physically. Led by researcher Becca R. Levy and published in the peer-reviewed journal Geriatrics, the study found something more actionable: People who held more positive attitudes about their own aging were significantly more likely to show these gains.

That’s not a motivational footnote. It’s a mechanism. The way you think about what’s coming shapes the biological and behavioral choices that determine whether it arrives. If you’ve already written off your 70s as a period of managed decline, you are actively contributing to that outcome. The practical move here is to audit the assumptions you’re carrying about your own future health because the data increasingly suggests they are the most important variable you can control.

2. The Exact Amount of Strength Training That Pays Off

For years, the advice has been vague: lift weights, build muscle, do resistance training. A June 2026 study in the British Journal of Sports Medicine finally puts a number on it. Researchers tracked 147,374 people over 30 years and found that 90 to 120 minutes of strength training per week was the longevity sweet spot, linked to a 13% lower risk of death from any cause, a 19% lower risk of death from cardiovascular disease and a 27% lower risk of death from neurological disease. Critically, they found no additional mortality benefit above 120 minutes per week.

That’s three sets of data points that change the conversation. First, the specific window (90-120 minutes) gives you an actual target instead of a vague directive. Second, the neurological protection finding—27% lower risk—is striking and underreported; most discussions of strength training focus on cardiovascular and metabolic benefits. Third, the ceiling matters: Doing more doesn’t help. Two focused sessions of 45 to 60 minutes weekly is not a beginner’s approach. It’s the evidence-backed optimum. If you’re already doing more, you may be spending time that could go elsewhere.

3. Cardio & Strength Together Are a Different Category

The same 30-year study found that combining strength training with aerobic exercise produces benefits that neither generates alone. Participants who accumulated high levels of both—30 to 44 MET hours of aerobic activity weekly alongside 60 to 119 minutes of strength training—saw a45% lower risk of death compared with those doing minimal amounts of either. At the highest aerobic volumes, mortality risk dropped 53% to 58% regardless of the amount of strength training.

The practical interpretation isn’t “do more.” It’s that aerobic and strength training operate on different biological pathways and stacking them produces compounding protection rather than redundant protection. If you’ve been treating your weekly workout as a choice between cardio and strength, the data argues for both—not as a performance goal, but as a longevity strategy. A structured week that includes three cardio sessions and two strength sessions, each around 45 minutes, clears both thresholds.

4. Social Isolation Has a Mortality Number, & It’s Alarming

Stanford Medicine’s longevity research for people in their 40s and 50s cites a finding that deserves more attention than it typically gets. A study analyzing data from 2.3 million adults,published in Nature, found that social isolation increases the risk of premature death by about 30%, a mortality risk comparable to smoking 15 cigarettes per day.

Most high-achievers in their 40s and 50s treat social connection as a discretionary item that gets trimmed when schedules are full. The data says this is a serious miscalculation. Stanford’s Abby King, Ph.D., who has spent decades researching health behaviors across the lifespan, frames this explicitly: “Social connection is really important for healthy aging—for your brain and for your emotional health. Finding ways to stay engaged with others, whether through community groups, volunteer work or simply maintaining close friendships, is one of the most protective things you can do for your long-term health.”

The midlife years—when careers and family demands peak—are precisely when social connection tends to contract. Building structural habits around it now (a standing dinner, a recurring commitment, a consistent community) isn’t a lifestyle choice. Based on the mortality data, it’s closer to a health intervention.

5. Your Protein Target Is Probably Too Low

The standard dietary recommendation for protein is 0.8 grams per kilogram of body weight per day. Stanford Medicine’s experts say that number is wrong for adults over 40, and the gap matters. Starting around age 40, you lose approximately 1% of muscle mass per year; the rate accelerates through your 50s. To counter that loss, Stanford’s research puts the effective target for adults over 40 at 1.0 to 1.2 grams of protein per kilogram of body weight daily, 25% to 50% higher than the standard recommendation.

For a 165-pound person, that means roughly 75 to 90 grams of protein per day, distributed across three meals of 20 to 30 grams each plus a 15- to 20-gram snack. Most people eating a standard Western diet fall significantly short of this, particularly at breakfast. The practical adjustment isn’t complicated—it’s adding a structured protein source to every meal rather than treating protein as incidental—but it requires knowing the actual target, which most people don’t.

https://www.success.com/longevity-research-2026-new-findings

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 22, 2026

1. Bonds are Safe?  20 Year Treasury ETF -43% Past 5 Years

Google Finance


2. Tech Stock Drawdowns are Common Place

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright


3. AAPL +20% 2026 vs. Mag 7 +1.5%

YCharts


4. One Month Reversal….KWEB Chinese Internet ETF +8.75% vs. EWY S Korea ETF -25%

StockCharts


5. One Year Return S.Korea EWY +130% vs. China KWEB -20%

YCharts


6. Rule of 20 for S&P

Perplexity


7. Weight Loss War Goes to Court…Novo Nordisk Sues LLY….NVO -24% One Year

Google Finance


8. What Does the U.S. Import from Canada and Mexico?

USAFacts


9. Home Affordability-The U.S. has been Here Before

Home Affordability: Better Than Headlines Suggest by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 7/21/26

Boomers Did Not Have It Easy

Here’s the part the narrative skips. The Boomer who bought in 1980 financed at a 30-year fixed rate of 13.74%, watched it climb past 18% by October 1981, and had no way to know rates would ever come back down, which made every payment feel like a life sentence.5 Think about that. For a median home price of $64,600 with 20% down, that household sent roughly 39% of its income to the mortgage before property taxes.6 Add the taxes, and the typical 1980 family spent close to 47% of their income on housing.

Today’s buyer, financing about $417,000 near 6.5%, spends closer to 32% on the mortgage and about 43% all in.6,14 Two independent analyses ran this exact math and landed in the same place. On the payment that matters, 1980 was as hard as, or harder than, 2026. So home affordability today is mostly a payment story, and the payment math favors the present. Notice what the work did. It isn’t the price of the home, it’s the rate.

Advisor Perspectives


10. Global Opinions of U.S. vs. China

Pew Research Center