Crypto flows. “Crypto sees biggest outflow since 2022. Money is leaving the market at one of the fastest rates since the last bear market.”
DAILY CHARTBOOK
2. But…Crypto ETF Positive Flows Were Much Higher than Predicted
Eric Balchunas
3. Flows Move Away from Mega Cap Tech Stocks
Dave Lutz Jones Trading–At the end of the fourth quarter, mega-cap tech stocks were the most under-owned relative to their weightings in the S&P 500 Index in 17 years, according to Morgan Stanley analysis citing 13-F filings. Bloomberg reports
4. Online Spending Surging
5. LLY Stock Sideways Pattern Since November 2025
StockCharts
6. 1.4 Billion Barrells of Oil Sitting at Sea
Google
7. China Debt Worse than U.S. and Europe
Michael A. Arouet
8. Musk cuts Starlink access for Russian forces – giving Ukraine an edge at the front
Paul Adams-Reuters
The Starlink system has become a vital tool to give troops in Ukraine internet access
Evidence is mounting that Elon Musk’s decision to deny Russian forces access to his Starlink satellite-based internet service has blunted Moscow’s advance, caused confusion among Russian soldiers and handed an advantage to Ukraine’s defenders.
But for how long? And what can Ukraine’s military achieve in the meantime?
“The Russians… lost their ability to control the field,” a Ukrainian drone operator who goes by the callsign Giovanni told us.
“I think they lost 50% of their capacity for offence,” he said. “That’s what the numbers show. Fewer assaults, fewer enemy drones, fewer everything.”
It’s still early to assess the impact of a change that only came into effect at the beginning of the month, after Ukraine’s defence minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, asked Elon Musk’s SpaceX company to block Russian access to Starlink.
But in some areas of the long front line, especially east of the city of Zaporizhzhia, there is some evidence of Russian forces being forced to retreat.
BBC
9. Map of Highest Homicide Rates in America
Newsweek
10. America-Work Down Leisure Time Up-Irrelevant Investor Blog
6. Blue Owl permanently halts redemptions at private credit fund aimed at retail investors
FT New York investment group backtracks from earlier plan to reopen to withdrawals Private credit group Blue Owl will permanently restrict investors from withdrawing their cash from its inaugural private retail debt fund, backtracking from an earlier plan to reopen to redemptions this quarter. The New York investment group on Wednesday said investors in Blue Owl Capital Corp II would no longer be able to redeem their investments in quarterly intervals but that the company would instead return investors’ capital in episodic payments as it sells down assets in coming quarters and years.
Three ‘odd’ thinking patterns are consistently linked to higher intelligence.-Psychology Today Mark Travers Ph.D.
People often picture intelligence as mental efficiency. We tend to imagine a smart person as someone who responds quickly, has strong opinions, and sees things clearly. However, highly intelligent people are not always faster, calmer, or more decisive. Sometimes, their minds are busier, slower, and more conflicted.
In my work as a psychologist, I’ve noticed that people with higher cognitive ability are often misunderstood simply because their mental habits don’t always look the way we expect intelligence to look. These tendencies get labeled as overthinking, indecision, or hesitation when, in reality, they reflect deeper cognitive processing.
1. Smart People Mentally Replay Conversations and Think of Future Scenarios
People often think that replaying conversations in their minds or constantly envisioning different future conversations is a symptom of anxiety or rumination. And, of course, it can be. But what’s also been shown is that mentally replaying conversations is also a function of advanced mental simulation.
Studies show that people with high fluid intelligence can process multiple “what if” scenarios concurrently, helping them see ahead, identify concealed dangers, and plan their actions.
This mode of thinking requires a lot of working memory because the brain isn’t looping idly; it’s stress-testing every single possibility that comes to mind. This might be why these people seem to be frequently lost in their thoughts, even when they’re alone. Their brains are processing social interactions and the implications of every possible choice they have to make.
We can, however, distinguish this process from maladaptive rumination. While rumination is repetitive and emotionally sticky, mental simulation is flexible and exploratory. It shifts perspective, updates assumptions, and often leads to insight. People often conflate the two because, from the outside, both include silence, distraction, or apparent overthinking.
However, it does come with some cost. This kind of over-processing can exude an air of indecisiveness, especially in situations where reaction time matters. However, in terms of cognition, this pattern indicates a mind that is preparing rather than stalling.
2. Smart People Are Comfortable Holding Two Conflicting Ideas When They Think
Most people feel dissonant toward contradictory beliefs because they examine them as problems to be solved. We find ways to simplify or justify it, and are often eager to take a side. However, highly intelligent people are often able to endure this discomfort for longer.
People with higher cognitive ability are better able to evaluate multiple valid perspectives simultaneously, even if they conflict. They do not jump to resolutions; instead, they allow competing perspectives to co-exist while the individual weighs the evidence for an often indefinite period.
This may seem confusing to onlookers. A person who argues, “I see merit on both sides,” can be perceived as being evasive. However, the same tendency can also be seen as a demonstration of cognitive flexibility, which involves the ability to withstand a need for closure and remain amenable to revision.
A 2023 study found that those with high IQs display a low need for cognitive closure and also tend to be more tolerant of ambiguity. These people do not find ambiguity threatening because their conceptual structures can handle complexity.
Of course, this comes with social costs. In fast-moving discussions or polarized environments, nuance is often mistaken for weakness. But from a psychological perspective, the ability to hold contradiction without collapsing is a hallmark of sophisticated thinking. It allows for better judgment, deeper understanding, and more accurate belief updating over time.
3. Smart People Take Longer to Answer, Even When They Know the Material Well
Speed is frequently treated as a proxy for intelligence; quick thinkers are assumed to be smart thinkers. Yet cognitive science consistently shows that one of the defining features of higher intelligence is not speed, but control.
Dual-process theories of cognition distinguish between fast, intuitive thinking and slower, analytical thinking. While everyone uses both systems, more intelligent individuals are better at inhibiting automatic responses when they sense that those responses may be misleading.
A 2022 study found that higher intelligence predicts a greater tendency to pause, override intuition, and engage in deliberate reasoning, especially when problems are complex or counterintuitive. Intelligent individuals are often slower precisely because they are monitoring their own thinking.
That pause can be misread. In classrooms, meetings, or interviews, hesitation is sometimes interpreted as uncertainty or lack of knowledge. But, in many cases, it reflects a recognition that the first answer is not always the best.
Higher intelligence is related to stronger error-monitoring abilities. Such people are more vigilant about potential errors, so they tend to pace themselves when accuracy is more important. However, the drawback is that this measured approach would not always be suited to environments where speed is rewarded. But from a cognitive standpoint, being able to inhibit premature responses is a strength. It is a reflection of a mind that values accuracy and meaning more than speed.
In reality, intelligence is not always smooth. These odd patterns of thinking are not always an asset in all situations. Nor are these patterns always associated with high intelligence. Higher intelligence correlates with an improved capacity for mental simulation, managing uncertainty, and internal impulse control. What seems inefficient from the outside appears so from a functional standpoint.
It is important to understand this distinction, not to glorify intelligence, but to understand the implications that there may be some mental processes with which we may be trying to intervene too quickly for our own best interests, the very processes our brains are designed to do.
The first generation was built on large models, demonstrating what could be done and powering many tools.
The second generation is focused on reducing costs and saving time. Replacing workers or making them more efficient.
But you can’t shrink your way to greatness.
The third generation will be built on a simple premise, one that the internet has proven again and again:
Create value by connecting people.
We haven’t seen this yet, but once it gains traction, it’ll seem obvious and we’ll wonder how we missed it.
Create tools that work better when your peers and colleagues use them too. And tools that solve problems that people with resources are willing to pay for.
Problems are everywhere, yet we often ignore them.
And communities (existing and those that need to exist) are just waiting to have their problems solved.
[Here’s a list of network-based tech companies you may have heard of: Facebook, YouTube, WhatsApp, Instagram, TikTok, Reddit, LinkedIn, Wikipedia, Discourse, Airbnb, Etsy, Stack Overflow, Pinterest, Twitch, eBay, Squidoo, Snapchat, GitHub… You can’t use them alone, and they work better when others use them too.]
So far, most AI projects ignore the very network effects that built the internet. That’s almost certain to change.
For those with paraskevidekatriaphobia, consider this your opportunity to build something worth building instead of just waiting for the negative consequences of this change to arrive…
2. Software Stocks Premium in P/E Valuation vs. Rest of Market Drops to Even
3. Software ETF Right on Its 200 Week Moving Average
StockCharts
4. BETZ Sports and Gaming ETF Falls Back to Liberation Day Levels …Polymarket and Kalshi Competition?
StockCharts
5. Number of Small Cap Stocks Trading at 10x Sales Back to Normal Levels
The chart-“Despite broader concerns around market valuations, our data on the percentage of Russell 3000 companies trading at 10x price-to-sales does not currently raise red flags,” say Ryan Grabinsky and Jon Byrne at Strategas Securities. “At 7.1%, the reading is among the lowest levels observed in the post-COVID period. That said, it is worth noting that this metric offered limited signal in the run-up to the financial crisis, so we remain mindful of its limitations,” they add.
MarketWatch
6. 2026 Returns S&P Equal Weight +7.5% Above QQQ
Nasdaq Dorsey Wright
7. Vanguard Value VTV +8% vs. QQQ -2% 2026
Ycharts
8. Last 12 Months….Euro Trust Currency ETF +14% vs. UUP U.S. Dollar Chart -5%
Ycharts
9. Americans are Stock Nation vs. Rest of World…Double Percentage of Holdings Versus China/Europe
6. Central Banks Buying and Selling Gold 2020-2025
Visual Capitalist
7. Social Security and Poverty-Ben Carlson
A Wealth of Common Sense
8. Russia Running Out of Soldiers
Semafor
9. Majority of Americans Low Confidence in Journalists to Act in Public’s Best Interest
Pew Research Center
10. 26 Rules to Be a Better Thinker in 2026
What follows is my advice for what you’re going to need more than ever in this brave new world—26 rules for becoming a better thinker.
– Take another think. The problem with our thoughts is that they’re often wrong—sometimes preposterously so. Nothing illustrates this quite like what’s called an “eggcorn,” words or expressions we confidently mishear and then contort to match our misperception. “All for not” instead of all for naught. “All intensive purposes” instead of all intents and purposes. But the greatest eggcorn is doubly ironic: people who say “you’ve got another thing coming” are, in fact, proving the point of the actual expression, “you’ve got another think coming.” We need to be able to slow down and use a second think. Especially when we’re sure what we think is right. (And by the way, at least 50% of the time I have to ask ChatGPT to think again because it’s answers are obviously wrong).
– Take walks. For centuries, thinkers have walked many miles a day—because they had to, because they were bored, because they wanted to escape the putrid cities they lived in, because they wanted to get their blood flowing. In the process, they discovered an important side-effect: it cleared their minds and made them better thinkers. Tesla discovered the rotating magnetic field—one of the most important scientific discoveries in modern history—on a walk through a Budapest park in 1882. Hemingway took long walks along the quais in Paris whenever he was stuck and needed to think. Nietzsche—who conceived of Thus Spoke Zarathustra on a long walk—said: “It is only ideas gained from walking that have any worth.” I have never taken a walk without thinking, after, “I am so glad I did that.”
– Embrace contradiction. F. Scott Fitzgerald said, “The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.” The world is complicated, ambiguous, paradoxical. To make sense of it, you must be able to balance conflicting truths.. F. Scott Fitzgerald said, “The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.” The world is complicated, ambiguous, paradoxical. To make sense of it, you must be able to balance conflicting truths.
– But don’t confuse complexity with nonsense. Stupid people are especially good at having a bunch of contradictory thoughts in their head at once. So the first-rate mind Fitzgerald described isn’t just about tolerating contradiction—it’s really about the ability to examine and interrogate it. It’s asking, Does this actually make sense?
– Go to first principles. Aristotle taught that one must go to the origins of things, go all the way to the primary truth of the matter, instead of just accepting common observation or belief. Don’t just blindly accept what everyone else seems to say or believe. Go to first principles. Instead of engaging with an issue from a headline, a tweet, or a take, go to the beginning. Break things down and build them back up. Put every idea to the test, the Stoics said. The good thinker approaches things with a fresh set of eyes and an open mind.
– Think for yourself. Generally, people just do what other people are doing and want what other people want and think what other people think. This was the insight of the philosopher René Girard, who coined the theory of mimetic desire. He believed that since we don’t know what we want, we end up being drawn—subconsciously or overtly—to what others want. We don’t think for ourselves, we follow tradition or the crowd.
– Don’t be contrarian for contrarian’s sake. Peter Thiel, widely considered a “contrarian,” (and a big fan of Girard) once told me that being a contrarian is actually a bad way to go. You can’t just take what everyone else thinks and put a minus sign in front of it. That’s not thinking for yourself. So in fact, if you find yourself constantly in opposition to everyone and everything (or most consensuses) that’s probably a sign you’re not doing much thinking. You’re just being reactionary.
– Ask good questions. When Isidor Rabi came home from school each day, his mother didn’t ask about grades or tests. “Izzy,” she would say, “did you ask a good question today?” This doesn’t seem like much, and yet it is everything. After all, questions drive discovery. The habit of asking questions turned Rabi into one of the greatest physicists of his time—a Nobel Prize winner whose work led to the invention of the MRI. Questions are the key not just to knowledge but to success, discovery, and mastery. They’re how we learn and how we get better. And they don’t have to be brilliant, probing, or incisive. They can be simple: “What do you mean?” They can be inquisitive: “How does that work?” They can aim for clarity: “Sorry, I didn’t understand, can you explain it another way?” The point is to stay curious. To never stop asking questions.
– Watch your information diet. When I’m not feeling great physically — tired, irritable, sluggish — usually it’s because I’m eating poorly. In the same way, when I feel mentally scattered and distracted — I know it’s time to focus on cleaning up my information diet. In programming, there’s a saying: “garbage in, garbage out.” Aim to let in the opposite of garbage. Because that leads to the opposite of garbage coming out.
– Go deep. I thought I knew a lot about Lincoln. I’d read biographies, watched documentaries, interviewed scholars, visited the sites. I’d even written about him in my books. So when I sat down to write about him in Part III of Wisdom Takes Work, I thought I was set. I wasn’t even close. So I went deeper. I read Hay and Nicolay. Doris Kearns Goodwin’s 944-page Team of Rivals. Michael Gerhardt’s 496-page book on Lincoln’s mentors. David S. Reynolds’s 1088-page Abe. David Herbert Donald’s 720-page Lincoln. Garry Wills’s Pulitzer Prize-winning book on the Gettysburg Address. I spoke with the documentarian Ken Burns about him, and Doris too. I read Lincoln’s letters and speeches. I went, multiple times while writing the book, to the Lincoln Memorial. In the end, I spent hundreds of hours reading thousands and thousands of pages on the man. Basically, I “dug deeply,” as Lincoln’s law partner once said of Lincoln’s own approach to learning, in order to get to the “nub” of a subject. This is a skill you need. Whether you’re an author, politician, lawyer, entrepreneur, scientist, educator, parent—you have to be able to pursue an idea, a question, a thread of curiosity until you’ve gotten to the nub and wrapped your head completely around it.
