TOPLEY’S TOP 10 February 11, 2026

1. Staples Sector Forward PE Equal to Tech

The Irrelevant Investor


2. Market Breath Surging….65% of Stocks Outperforming Over Last 3 Months


3. Small Cap Earnings Growth at Highest Level in 3 Years

R3K earnings growth. And finally, “earnings growth for the median Russell 3000 stock is at its highest level in four years. Fundamentals are in line with the stock market broadening.”

Daily Chartbook


4. Goldman Predicting Record IPO Year 2026

Google


5. Huge Amount of Short Selling…Not Usually a Sing of Market Top

Hedge fund shorts. “Short selling across single stocks last week was the biggest on record going back to 2016”.

Goldman Sachs via @macrocharts


6. Copper Inventories at All-Time Highs

Bloomberg The US has quietly built up its biggest stockpile of copper in decades, distorting flows of the red metal to the rest of the world.

The influx of copper into American inventories has gathered momentum over the past year and added to upward pricing pressures. The higher prices have reverberated across the copper supply chain.

Bloomberg


7. U.S. Total Oil Production Declining for the First Time in 5 Years

Otavio (Tavi) Costa


8. Polymarket Odds 57% that Digital Asset Clarity Act Passes

Perplexity


9. Leading Crypto Political PAC Raises $193M

Axios


10. 2 “Annoying” Habits That Actually Signal Intelligence

If you’re prone to these two “annoying” habits, you could be smarter than you think. Mark Travers Ph.D.

Key points

  • Mind wandering can support creative thinking and cognitive flexibility.
  • Talking to oneself can support self-regulation, planning, and metacognition.
  • When we idealize focus, discipline, and a silent mind, we overlook powers of the brain beyond concentration.

We often judge habits like a drifting mind or moments of spontaneous “zoning out” as flaws. To most people, these are considered signs of poor focus, weak discipline, or even cognitive decline.

However, what we often fail to factor in is that our perceptions are influenced by the culture of relentless productivity and tangible rewards that surrounds us. From this lens, these mental habits will obviously look like distractions that need to be corrected, rather than cognitive processes that simply need to be understood.

Psychological research tells us that, under the right conditions, these seemingly unproductive behaviors can reflect cognitive flexibility, creative problem-solving, and the brain’s ability to adaptively shift between modes of thought. In other words, rather than being mental glitches, they may be signs of an active mind doing important background work.

Here are two common behaviors many people dismiss or try to suppress, as well as what they really mean, when they can be helpful, and how to start approaching them with greater psychological nuance.

1. A Habit of Daydreaming

Mind-wandering, or the drifting of attention away from the present task toward self-generated thoughts, has long been considered a telltale sign of inattention. However, recent studies show that it can also support creative thinking and cognitive flexibility.

For example, a 2025 study involving more than 1,300 adults found that deliberate mind-wandering (that is, a person intentionally allowing themselves to daydream) predicted higher creative performance. Neuroimaging data suggested this effect was supported by increased connectivity between large-scale brain networks involved in executive control and the default mode network, a system associated with self-generated thought and imagination.

People with higher spontaneous mind-wandering tendencies also show better performance on task-switching paradigms, meaning they can shift mental sets more quickly, which is a clear sign of flexible thinking.

Another habit closely related to mind-wandering is an individual’s capacity for spontaneous thought. A 2024 study published in PNAS Nexus analyzed spontaneous thought samples from more than 3,300 participants using natural language processing. According to the results, unprompted thoughts tend to organize around goal-relevant information and support memory consolidation. In other words, this means that “idle” thinking often serves adaptive cognitive functions rather than being random mental noise.

It’s important to note, however, that mind-wandering isn’t a magic bullet. Its benefits will only take root when balanced with attention control. If you find your mind often drifting, and if you also have good focus and self-awareness, then you might be tapping into a mental mode that supports creativity, flexible thinking, and problem-solving.

2. A Habit of Talking to Yourself

Talking to yourself, whether silently in your head or softly out loud, might look odd or even neurotic from the outside. However, recent psychological research suggests that inner speech and self-talk can actually be used to support self-regulation, planning, and metacognition (the act of thinking about your own thoughts).

According to a 2023 study of university students published in the journal Behavioral Sciences, there is a considerable correlation between reported use of inner speech and measures of self-regulation and self-concept clarity. In other words, individuals who “talked to themselves” more often than others would report significantly clearer self-identity as well as better self-regulation.

Of course, this does not mean that self-talk directly signals higher intelligence. Instead, it suggests that inner speech may function as a cognitive scaffold, or as a way to organize complex ideas, sequence actions, and monitor goals.

This means that by externalizing thoughts internally (or quietly aloud), the brain may find it easier to reduce cognitive noise. As a result, it may also impose structure on abstract or emotionally charged problems more efficiently and effectively. So, if you catch yourself murmuring through your thoughts, it could be your brain’s way of scaffolding complex ideas, turning chaotic thinking into ordered plans or self-reflection.

However, as with mind-wandering, self-talk also benefits only in moderation. Excessive or negative self-talk, especially in the form of rumination or harsh self-criticism, can undermine focus and mental well-being. When used constructively, however, that same internal dialogue can transform half-thoughts into actionable plans.

What to Do if You Have These ‘Annoying’ Habits

If you have one or both of these supposedly “annoying” habits, then you must always remind yourself that there isn’t anything wrong with you; they’re both incredibly common and totally normal. However, despite their benefits, they aren’t necessarily guaranteed markers of genius, either.

In reality, the relationships between these habits and their associated productive behaviors are contextual and conditional. This means minds that wander with purpose, self-talk used for planning rather than rumination, and rest that is balanced with effort will correlate most strongly with enhanced thinking or creativity.

On the other hand, when these behaviors spiral into chronic distraction, anxiety, or disorganization, then they may risk becoming problematic. However, if an individual engages in them consciously and moderately, they can indeed be used as valuable tools. Here are three steps you can follow to use them adaptively:

  1. Notice context. Pay attention to when and where you typically start mind-wandering or talking to yourself. Are you daydreaming during monotonous tasks? Do you talk to yourself when trying to focus on something critical? Try giving yourself a 10-minute idle moment first, then return to the task.
  2. Use inner speech consciously. When planning or thinking through ideas, speak (silently or quietly) as if guiding yourself. That structure can help shape clarity.
  3. Allow mental rest. Schedule micro-breaks for reflection. Sometimes, the best ideas come when the brain has space and freedom to wander.

When we idealize focus, discipline, and silence inside the mind, we overlook the powers of the human brain beyond sheer concentration. The next time you catch your mind drifting, hear a soft whisper of self-talk, or notice your gaze drifting out the window, don’t immediately judge it as laziness or lack of control. Sometimes, it’s just your mind thinking in a language beyond tasks and deadlines.

A version of this post also appears on Forbes.com. https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/social-instincts/202602/2-annoying-habits-that-actually-signal-intelligence

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 February 10, 2026

1. History of Emerging Market vs. S&P Cycle

Ben Carlson


2. Fund Flows Post October Nasdaq Peak

Since the Nasdaq peaked on October 29th, the money has been flooding into emerging markets, thematic funds, and cyclicals. ETF flow data shows a clear exodus from mega-cap tech into overlooked corners of the market.

Todd Sohn via Daily Chartbook


3. Notable Drawdowns


4. Big 4 Companies Spending $650 Billion 2026 on Capex

Dave Lutz Jones Trading ROTATION WATCH– Four of the biggest US technology companies together have forecast capital expenditures that will reach about $650 billion in 2026 — a mind-boggling tide of cash earmarked for new data centers and the long list of equipment needed to make them tick, including artificial intelligence chips, networking cables and backup generators.

The four companies “see the race to provide AI compute as the next winner-take-all or winner-takes-most market,” said Gil Luria, an analyst at DA Davidson. “And none of them is willing to lose.”


5. Russian Oil and Gas Revenue -50% in January

Janis Kluge


6. The Most Valuable Private Companies


7. The $20 Trillion Increase in U.S. Debt

King Report-US debt under Trump soared $8 Trillion or 40% from his January 2017 inauguration until Biden’s January 2021 inauguration.  US debt soared $8 Trillion during Biden’s term, or 28.77%.  US debt during Trump’s 2nd term has jumped $2.32 Trillion in ONE YEAR!

The King Report


8. Bitcoin ETF Hits 2024 Levels of Support

StockCharts


9. Disney Flip in Operation Income Over 10 Years-Prog G

Prof G Markets


10. How Do Family Offices Allocate-Barrons

Barron’s

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 February 09, 2026

1. The Magnificent 2


2. MAGS Mag 7 ETF Chart …Sideways Since Sept 2025

StockCharts


3. Software Forward PE Drop ….Forward P/E of Software ETF 55x to 35x

Perplexity


4. IGV Software ETF Right on Liberation Day Lows

StockCharts


5. Private Equity ETF PSP Failed 4x at New Highs

StockCharts


6. Defensives Still Close to Lowest Weighting in S&P 500 Since 1990

After a fascinating week in markets, today’s CoTD —updated from last week’s pack (link here)—shows that US defensive stocks remain close to the “cheapest” levels we’ve seen since our dataset begins in 1990. In other words, even with the recent rotation out of tech, the broader picture still shows limited impact when you zoom out.

For more colour on positioning and flows behind the recent equity move, see Parag Thatte’s latest weekly report (link here). Two themes stand out:

  1. Tech bounced on Friday from the bottom of its 10-year relative channel versus the S&P 500. Notably, it was sitting at the top of that channel back in October when the rotation began.
  2. The rotation away from tech began around the time Q3 earnings revealed a broadening of earnings growth—from a narrow set of sectors (mainly tech) to most sectors.

This second point is particularly interesting: improving earnings elsewhere may have helped create the conditions for the tech sell-off just as much as anything happening within tech itself. And while tech still shows the strongest earnings growth, today’s chart suggests that as other sectors improve, relative valuations become compelling enough for investors to reallocate.

Deutsche Bank


7. Murder Rate Per 100,000 People

Semafor


8. Source of Power by State 2025

Orennia


9. Unemployment Rate for College Grads in U.S. 2.5%-2.8%….Vs. China/India

Perlpexity


10. Super-Aged Societies-Demographics is Destiny

Visual Capitalist

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 February 06, 2026

1. Crypto Assets Lose $1.7 Trillion in Value Since October

Bloomberg


2. 2 X Leverage an Already  Leveraged MSTR -97%

Ben Carlson


3. For Short-Term Traders

Highs vs. lows. “This is a very split market. 16% of S&P 500 stocks are at 52 week highs while 5% are at 52 week lows. This only happened 3 other times: July 1990, August 2015, March 2025. Each were followed by at least a -10% $SPX correction in the next 2 months”.

@themarketstats


4. Palantir PLTR-A Series of Lower Highs and Close Below 200 Day

StockCharts


5. XLP Consumer Staples 15% Over QQQ 2026…XLP +12% vs. QQQ -3%

YCharts


6. Top 5 P/E with Exposure to Enterprise Software

Pitchbook


7. Countries with Largest Copper Reserves

Semarfor


8. Chile ETF +62% One Year

Google Finance


9. Home Sellers Outnumber Buyers Nationally

Barchart


10. Why your brain needs everyday rituals-The Big Think

Rituals serve psychological functions that go far beyond mere habit or tradition.

by 

Anne-Laure Le Cunff

Key Takeaways

  • Rituals — repeated, meaningful routines — give the brain structure when life feels uncertain.
  • Their predictability can calm stress, reduce mental load, and improve social interactions.
  • You can design small, personal rituals to actively program your brain for resilience, clarity, and connection.

A few years ago, during a particularly chaotic period at work, I started making my morning coffee the exact same way every day: same mug, same timing, same two minutes of silence while it brewed.

It wasn’t intentional; I was just too overwhelmed to think about it. But something interesting happened: Those two minutes became the calmest part of my day. Even when everything else felt out of control, I had this one predictable moment that somehow made the rest manageable.

I had just experienced the power of rituals completely by accident, and it wasn’t until I left tech to study neuroscience that I understood why that simple coffee routine had been so effective.

Rituals are some of the most powerful technologies invented by humankind.

Most people think of rituals as elaborate religious ceremonies or ancient traditions. But your life is actually filled with them.

Waiting for everyone to be served before eating, giving presents for birthdays and holidays, saying “hello” and exchanging scripted pleasantries, clapping at the end of a performance — all of these are rituals woven throughout our days.

Since the dawn of time, humans have used rituals to acknowledge one another, signal belonging, mark beginnings and endings, and more.

In fact, I believe rituals are some of the most powerful technologies invented by humankind. Think of them as repetitive, patterned, often culturally transmitted “software” that serves psychological functions that go far beyond mere habit or tradition.

The psychology and neuroscience of rituals

When people face stress, danger, or major life changes, rituals provide a sense of stability through structured actions. Having something concrete to do when everything appears uncertain reduces anxiety and feelings of helplessness.

This sense of agency extends to rituals’ broader social function: Shared routines make cooperation easier in times of stress. When a team huddles before a game, the action signals membership and commitment to the group.

Rituals also help us make sense of life’s most challenging moments. They mark transitions — such as birth, puberty, marriage, and death — and help us navigate events that feel overwhelming. They also support us as we forge a new identity through rites of passage. That’s why graduation ceremonies don’t just celebrate achievement; they help transform a person’s identity from “student” to “graduate.”

Lastly, rituals transmit culture across generations. Children learn gratitude from family dinner traditions, not from lectures about being thankful. Repeatedly doing something together works better than just talking about it.

Rituals are like a software upgrade for your nervous system. They affect your brain and body in three specific ways:

  1. Calm. Rituals help quiet the brain’s threat-detection system, especially the amygdala. When that system calms down, we feel more grounded. This is one reason repeating familiar sequences of actions helps during chaotic transitions.
  2. Clarity. Predictable steps activate parts of the prefrontal cortex involved in planning, which reduces mental load as your brain doesn’t have to constantly decide what comes next. This makes challenging tasks feel more manageable, especially under stress.
  3. Connection. When people move or speak in sync, the brain releases bonding chemicals, such as oxytocin and endogenous opioids. These make social interactions feel warmer and more trusting. That’s why shared rituals create a sense of “us.”

Most rituals are inherited from the culture around us — we simply adopt what we see others doing. But here’s the part I find most exciting: You don’t have to copy-paste rituals from others. You can consciously design rituals that serve your specific needs.

How to design your own rituals

Creating personal rituals that serve your specific needs only takes a bit of observation, experimentation, and reflection.

  • Start with observation. Notice the moments in your day when you feel scattered, stressed, or disconnected. These transition points are perfect opportunities for designing a new ritual.
  • Next, experiment. Pick one specific moment in your day and try a simple ritual. Maybe it’s making your morning coffee the same way each day, arranging your desk before work, or taking three deep breaths before important meetings. The key is choosing something small enough to stick with yet meaningful enough to feel intentional.
  • Finally, reflect and adjust. After a week or two, ask yourself: Does this ritual actually help? Does it feel natural or forced? Pretend to be a scientist and answer these questions from a place of curiosity. Tweak as needed.

The most effective personal rituals are simple enough to remember, specific enough to feel meaningful, and flexible enough to adapt to different circumstances. Start small with one daily ritual, then gradually expand your toolkit.

These repeated patterns of action will help you actively program your brain for resilience, clarity, and connection. Use them before exams, competitions, or challenging conversations. Keep experimenting and adapting them as you and your circumstances change.

Your brain is already wired to respond to rituals — you just need to give it the right patterns to follow.

https://bigthink.com/smart-skills/why-your-brain-needs-everyday-rituals

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 February 05, 2026

1. Retail Investor Flow Jumped 60% from 2024 to 2025

Retail Flows Hit Record Highs

Here’s the part that should make Wall Street nervous: retail isn’t just maintaining presence, it’s accelerating. JPMorgan data shows that retail flows in 2025 jumped 60% from 2024 levels and are running 17% higher than the 2021 meme stock peak.

Retail investors are now over 20% of the total U.S. trading volume. Retail has now become a bigger force in the market than institutional long only and hedge funds.

Daily Chartbook


2. IGV Software ETF -30% from Highs ….Right on 200-Week Moving Average

StockCharts


3. Worst Performing Software Stocks-Bespoke

Bespoke’s


4. History of Consumer Staple Rally vs. Tech

“Due to the AI disruption fear in Service Businesses, Legal tools, Consulting and Advertising -we are seeing rotation into Consumer Staples and Cyclicals that are less threatened by AI” Noted JonesTrading’s Mike O’Rourke.  Yesterday the Defensive sector XLP was up +2%, while tech sector XLK was down -2% – “This only happened in 2000-2001 dot-com bust & January 2025 (before Trump tariffs crash)” noted Twits.


5. $227 Million Out of Bitcoin ETFS….IBIT Breaks Below April 2025 Levels

WSJ-$227 Million in Net Withdraws from Bitcoin ETFs Ending Jan 28Th

https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/the-vibe-in-the-crypto-market-right-now-stay-alive-9f3ee79c

StockCharts


6. 44% of Bitcoin Supply is Now Negative Returns

BTC supply in profit. “44% of Bitcoin supply is now underwater.”

DAILY CHARTBOOK


7. Fidelity Launched Dollar Backed Stablecoin in Direct Competition with CRCL…..CRCL -35% Year to Date

StockCharts


8. Solar ETF +70% 12 Months Despite Trump and Silver Prices

Google


9. 10-20% of Solar Manufacturing Cost is Silver

Perplexity


10. More trouble than it’s worth-Seth’s Blog

This is the hallmark of projects that turn out to be worth doing.

The trouble might be a symptom that we’re onto something that others don’t care enough to do.

And the things that are obviously worth doing are probably already being done.

https://seths.blog