TOPLEY’S TOP 10 February 24, 2026

1. Consumer Staple Stocks and PEG Ratios-Prof G Newsletter

Prof G Markets


2. Retail Investor Not Buying Bitcoin Dip….5 Weeks of Outflows from ETF


3. MSFT -30% from Highs…Hitting Liberation Day Support Levels

StockCharts


4. Software ETF IGV Hitting 2 ? Year Support Levels

StockCharts


5. Private Equity’s Dry Spell Worse Than 2008 Crisis, Bain Says

By Preeti Singh

Bloomberg


6. Is China Really Dumping US Treasuries?

Advisor Perspectives by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 2/23/26

However, just because China owns U.S. Treasuries does not mean it must have custodial holdings in the U.S. Look at the same holdings table and focus on Belgium and Luxembourg. In the November 2025 snapshot, Belgium shows about $481 billion in Treasury holdings, and Luxembourg shows about $425 billion. Those are massive totals for very small countries that are not building reserves at that scale

In reality, Luxembourg and Belgium are “hosting custody” for China. Just for reference look at the chart of US Treasury holdings of China and Belgium. Over the same period, while China’s holdings fell by $600 billion, Belgiums rose by $500 billion.

Advisor Perspectives


7. Single Family Housing Construction -6.9% Year Over Year

Wolf Street


8. Philadelphia Leads Job Growth in Large Metro Areas

The Philadelphia Inquirer


9. Philadelphia Sees Largest Annual Increase in Home Prices


10. Drinking 2-3 cups of coffee a day tied to lower dementia risk

The Harvard Gazzette Marked differences between caffeinated, decaffeinated drinks in analysis of more than 130,000 people

Mass General Brigham Communications

February 9, 2026 4 min read

Evidence from a study of more than 130,000 people suggests that two to three cups of coffee a day can reduce dementia risk and slow cognitive decline.

The research — published in JAMA and led by investigators from Mass General Brigham, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, and the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard — analyzed data from the Nurses’ Health Study and Health Professionals Follow-Up Study.

“When searching for possible dementia prevention tools, we thought something as prevalent as coffee may be a promising dietary intervention — and our unique access to high-quality data through studies that have been going on for more than 40 years allowed us to follow through on that idea,” said senior author Daniel Wang, associate scientist with the Channing Division of Network Medicine in the Mass General Brigham Department of Medicine and assistant professor at Harvard Medical School. Wang is also an assistant professor in the Department of Nutrition at Harvard Chan School and an associate member at the Broad Institute.

“While our results are encouraging, it’s important to remember that the effect size is small and there are lots of important ways to protect cognitive function as we age. Our study suggests that caffeinated coffee or tea consumption can be one piece of that puzzle.”

“While our results are encouraging, it’s important to remember that the effect size is small and there are lots of important ways to protect cognitive function as we age.”

Daniel Wang

Early prevention is especially crucial for dementia, since current treatments are limited and typically offer only modest benefit once symptoms appear. Focus on prevention has led researchers to investigate the influences of lifestyle factors like diet on dementia development.

Coffee and tea contain bioactive ingredients like polyphenols and caffeine, which have emerged as possible neuroprotective factors that reduce inflammation and cellular damage while protecting against cognitive decline. Though promising, findings about the relationship between coffee and dementia have been inconsistent, as studies have had limited follow-up and insufficient detail to capture long-term intake patterns, differences by beverage type, or the full continuum of outcomes — from early subjective cognitive decline to clinically diagnosed dementia.

Data from Nurses’ Health Study and Health Professionals Follow-Up Study help to overcome these challenges. Participants repeated assessments of diet, dementia, subjective cognitive decline, and objective cognitive function, and were followed for up to 43 years. Researchers compared how caffeinated coffee, tea, and decaffeinated coffee influenced dementia risk and cognitive health of each participant.

Of the 131,821 participants, 11,033 developed dementia. Both male and female participants with the highest intake of caffeinated coffee had an 18 percent lower risk of dementia compared with those who reported little or no caffeinated coffee consumption. Caffeinated coffee drinkers also had lower prevalence of subjective cognitive decline (7.8 percent versus 9.5 percent). By some measurements, those who drank caffeinated coffee also showed better performance on objective tests of overall cognitive function.

Higher tea intake showed similar results, while decaffeinated coffee did not — suggesting that caffeine may be the active factor producing these neuroprotective results, though further research is needed to validate the responsible factors and mechanisms.

The cognitive benefits were most pronounced in participants who consumed two to three cups of caffeinated coffee or one to two cups of tea daily. Contrary to several previous studies, higher caffeine intake did not yield negative effects — instead, it provided similar neuroprotective benefits to the optimal dosage.

“We also compared people with different genetic predispositions to developing dementia and saw the same results — meaning coffee or caffeine is likely equally beneficial for people with high and low genetic risk of developing dementia,” said lead author Yu Zhang, a student at Harvard Chan School and a research trainee at Mass General Brigham.

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2026/02/drinking-2-3-cups-of-coffee-a-day-tied-to-lower-dementia-risk/

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 February 20, 2026

1. Crypto Highest Outflows Since 2022

Crypto flows. “Crypto sees biggest outflow since 2022. Money is leaving the market at one of the fastest rates since the last bear market.”

DAILY CHARTBOOK


2. But…Crypto ETF Positive Flows Were Much Higher than Predicted

Eric Balchunas


3. Flows Move Away from Mega Cap Tech Stocks

Dave Lutz Jones Trading–At the end of the fourth quarter, mega-cap tech stocks were the most under-owned relative to their weightings in the S&P 500 Index in 17 years, according to Morgan Stanley analysis citing 13-F filings. Bloomberg reports


4. Online Spending Surging


5. LLY Stock Sideways Pattern Since November 2025

StockCharts


6. 1.4 Billion Barrells of Oil Sitting at Sea

Google


7. China Debt Worse than U.S. and Europe

Michael A. Arouet


8. Musk cuts Starlink access for Russian forces – giving Ukraine an edge at the front

Paul Adams-Reuters

The Starlink system has become a vital tool to give troops in Ukraine internet access

Evidence is mounting that Elon Musk’s decision to deny Russian forces access to his Starlink satellite-based internet service has blunted Moscow’s advance, caused confusion among Russian soldiers and handed an advantage to Ukraine’s defenders.

But for how long? And what can Ukraine’s military achieve in the meantime?

“The Russians… lost their ability to control the field,” a Ukrainian drone operator who goes by the callsign Giovanni told us.

“I think they lost 50% of their capacity for offence,” he said. “That’s what the numbers show. Fewer assaults, fewer enemy drones, fewer everything.”

It’s still early to assess the impact of a change that only came into effect at the beginning of the month, after Ukraine’s defence minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, asked Elon Musk’s SpaceX company to block Russian access to Starlink.

But in some areas of the long front line, especially east of the city of Zaporizhzhia, there is some evidence of Russian forces being forced to retreat.

BBC


9. Map of Highest Homicide Rates in America

Newsweek


10. America-Work Down Leisure Time Up-Irrelevant Investor Blog

The Irrelevant Investor

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 February 19, 2026

1. S&P Under the Hood 2026….117 Stocks Up or Down More than 20%

Bespoke


2. 857 Unicorns-Private Companies Valued at More than $1B

Apollo


3. Exxon was Replaced in Dow Jones by Salesforce in 2020

Ryan Detrick


4. First Six Weeks 2026 …Massive ETF Flows Double 2025

Eric Balchunas


5. Investor bullishness falls to 12-week low

Marketwatch By Jamie Chisholm


6. Blue Owl permanently halts redemptions at private credit fund aimed at retail investors

FT New York investment group backtracks from earlier plan to reopen to withdrawals
Private credit group Blue Owl will permanently restrict investors from withdrawing their cash from its inaugural private retail debt fund, backtracking from an earlier plan to reopen to redemptions this quarter. The New York investment group on Wednesday said investors in Blue Owl Capital Corp II would no longer be able to redeem their investments in quarterly intervals but that the company would instead return investors’ capital in episodic payments as it sells down assets in coming quarters and years.

https://www.ft.com/content/b2f299f6-2a82-4a43-bcbf-86cac3937550

OWL -50% One Year…Back to 2023 Levels.

StockCharts


7. Demographics is Destiny

Semafor


8. Condo Sales About to Break Below Covid Crisis Levels

Wolf Street


9. Americans believe Epstein files show the powerful get a pass, Reuters/Ipsos poll

finds

By Jason Lange Reuters

Reuters


10. 3 Unique Ways Smart People Think

Three ‘odd’ thinking patterns are consistently linked to higher intelligence.-Psychology Today Mark Travers Ph.D.

People often picture intelligence as mental efficiency. We tend to imagine a smart person as someone who responds quickly, has strong opinions, and sees things clearly. However, highly intelligent people are not always faster, calmer, or more decisive. Sometimes, their minds are busier, slower, and more conflicted.

In my work as a psychologist, I’ve noticed that people with higher cognitive ability are often misunderstood simply because their mental habits don’t always look the way we expect intelligence to look. These tendencies get labeled as overthinking, indecision, or hesitation when, in reality, they reflect deeper cognitive processing.

1. Smart People Mentally Replay Conversations and Think of Future Scenarios

People often think that replaying conversations in their minds or constantly envisioning different future conversations is a symptom of anxiety or rumination. And, of course, it can be. But what’s also been shown is that mentally replaying conversations is also a function of advanced mental simulation.

Studies show that people with high fluid intelligence can process multiple “what if” scenarios concurrently, helping them see ahead, identify concealed dangers, and plan their actions.

This mode of thinking requires a lot of working memory because the brain isn’t looping idly; it’s stress-testing every single possibility that comes to mind. This might be why these people seem to be frequently lost in their thoughts, even when they’re alone. Their brains are processing social interactions and the implications of every possible choice they have to make.

We can, however, distinguish this process from maladaptive rumination. While rumination is repetitive and emotionally sticky, mental simulation is flexible and exploratory. It shifts perspective, updates assumptions, and often leads to insight. People often conflate the two because, from the outside, both include silence, distraction, or apparent overthinking.

However, it does come with some cost. This kind of over-processing can exude an air of indecisiveness, especially in situations where reaction time matters. However, in terms of cognition, this pattern indicates a mind that is preparing rather than stalling.

2. Smart People Are Comfortable Holding Two Conflicting Ideas When They Think

Most people feel dissonant toward contradictory beliefs because they examine them as problems to be solved. We find ways to simplify or justify it, and are often eager to take a side. However, highly intelligent people are often able to endure this discomfort for longer.

People with higher cognitive ability are better able to evaluate multiple valid perspectives simultaneously, even if they conflict. They do not jump to resolutions; instead, they allow competing perspectives to co-exist while the individual weighs the evidence for an often indefinite period.

This may seem confusing to onlookers. A person who argues, “I see merit on both sides,” can be perceived as being evasive. However, the same tendency can also be seen as a demonstration of cognitive flexibility, which involves the ability to withstand a need for closure and remain amenable to revision.

A 2023 study found that those with high IQs display a low need for cognitive closure and also tend to be more tolerant of ambiguity. These people do not find ambiguity threatening because their conceptual structures can handle complexity.

Of course, this comes with social costs. In fast-moving discussions or polarized environments, nuance is often mistaken for weakness. But from a psychological perspective, the ability to hold contradiction without collapsing is a hallmark of sophisticated thinking. It allows for better judgment, deeper understanding, and more accurate belief updating over time.

3. Smart People Take Longer to Answer, Even When They Know the Material Well

Speed is frequently treated as a proxy for intelligence; quick thinkers are assumed to be smart thinkers. Yet cognitive science consistently shows that one of the defining features of higher intelligence is not speed, but control.

Dual-process theories of cognition distinguish between fast, intuitive thinking and slower, analytical thinking. While everyone uses both systems, more intelligent individuals are better at inhibiting automatic responses when they sense that those responses may be misleading.

A 2022 study found that higher intelligence predicts a greater tendency to pause, override intuition, and engage in deliberate reasoning, especially when problems are complex or counterintuitive. Intelligent individuals are often slower precisely because they are monitoring their own thinking.

That pause can be misread. In classrooms, meetings, or interviews, hesitation is sometimes interpreted as uncertainty or lack of knowledge. But, in many cases, it reflects a recognition that the first answer is not always the best.

Higher intelligence is related to stronger error-monitoring abilities. Such people are more vigilant about potential errors, so they tend to pace themselves when accuracy is more important. However, the drawback is that this measured approach would not always be suited to environments where speed is rewarded. But from a cognitive standpoint, being able to inhibit premature responses is a strength. It is a reflection of a mind that values accuracy and meaning more than speed.

In reality, intelligence is not always smooth. These odd patterns of thinking are not always an asset in all situations. Nor are these patterns always associated with high intelligence. Higher intelligence correlates with an improved capacity for mental simulation, managing uncertainty, and internal impulse control. What seems inefficient from the outside appears so from a functional standpoint.

It is important to understand this distinction, not to glorify intelligence, but to understand the implications that there may be some mental processes with which we may be trying to intervene too quickly for our own best interests, the very processes our brains are designed to do.

A version of this post also appears on Forbes.com. https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/social-instincts/202602/3-unique-ways-smart-people-think

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 February 18, 2026

1. Mag 7 ETF Right on 200 Day

StockCharts


2. NVDA Flat for 6 Months

Google Finance


3. AAPL Sits Out the AI Capex Boom

Anish Moonka


4. Equal Weight Indexes Breaking-Out Across Board

TrendLabs


5. Salesforce -25% 5 Years


6. Kalshi and Polymarket Line on Bitcoin

Crypto Advisor Letter

The Crypto Advisor


7. Bitcoin ETF IBIT Put Volume Spike

The Irrelevant Investor


8. Global Hedge Funds Buy Record Amount of Asian Stocks

The Kobeissi Letter


9. Where Universities Distribute Endowment Money

Barron’s


10. The next generation of AI businesses-Seth’s Blog

The first generation was built on large models, demonstrating what could be done and powering many tools.

The second generation is focused on reducing costs and saving time. Replacing workers or making them more efficient.

But you can’t shrink your way to greatness.

The third generation will be built on a simple premise, one that the internet has proven again and again:

Create value by connecting people.

We haven’t seen this yet, but once it gains traction, it’ll seem obvious and we’ll wonder how we missed it.

Create tools that work better when your peers and colleagues use them too. And tools that solve problems that people with resources are willing to pay for.

Problems are everywhere, yet we often ignore them.

And communities (existing and those that need to exist) are just waiting to have their problems solved.

[Here’s a list of network-based tech companies you may have heard of: Facebook, YouTube, WhatsApp, Instagram, TikTok, Reddit, LinkedIn, Wikipedia, Discourse, Airbnb, Etsy, Stack Overflow, Pinterest, Twitch, eBay, Squidoo, Snapchat, GitHub… You can’t use them alone, and they work better when others use them too.]

So far, most AI projects ignore the very network effects that built the internet. That’s almost certain to change.

For those with paraskevidekatriaphobia, consider this your opportunity to build something worth building instead of just waiting for the negative consequences of this change to arrive…

https://seths.blog

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 February 17, 2026

1. Chart of the Week

Michael Batnick


2. Software Stocks Premium in P/E Valuation vs. Rest of Market Drops to Even


3. Software ETF Right on Its 200 Week Moving Average

StockCharts


4. BETZ Sports and Gaming ETF Falls Back to Liberation Day Levels …Polymarket and Kalshi Competition?

StockCharts


5. Number of Small Cap Stocks Trading at 10x Sales Back to Normal Levels

The chart-“Despite broader concerns around market valuations, our data on the percentage of Russell 3000 companies trading at 10x price-to-sales does not currently raise red flags,” say Ryan Grabinsky and Jon Byrne at Strategas Securities. “At 7.1%, the reading is among the lowest levels observed in the post-COVID period. That said, it is worth noting that this metric offered limited signal in the run-up to the financial crisis, so we remain mindful of its limitations,” they add.

MarketWatch


6. 2026 Returns S&P Equal Weight +7.5% Above QQQ

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright


7. Vanguard Value VTV +8% vs. QQQ -2% 2026

Ycharts


8. Last 12 Months….Euro Trust Currency ETF +14% vs. UUP U.S. Dollar Chart -5%

Ycharts


9. Americans are Stock Nation vs. Rest of World…Double Percentage of Holdings Versus China/Europe

WSJ


10. Older Americans on Phones as Much as Kids

Chartr