TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 20 2024

1. NVDA Stats….Market Cap Passing Germany, France and UK

Jim Reid Deutsche Bank
Some other remarkable stats:

  • Nvidia went from $2tn market cap to $3tn in 30 trading days from April 24th.
  • Nvidia has added a trillion dollars of market cap since May 20th. At 23 trading days this is the quickest a company has ever added a trillion dollars.
  • For context, Berkshire Hathaway, one of the most respected companies in the world, has taken around 135 years since its origins in the 1880 to get from zero to around $900bn today.
  • Nvidia, Apple and Microsoft are now worth a combined $9.95tn and look set to cross $10tn for the first time any day.
  • The last time the entire S&P 500 had a market cap of $10tn was in September 2010.
  • At the lows in 2009, the entire market cap of the S&P 500 was $6.11tn, less than double Nvidia today.
  • As it stands, Nvidia is on track to be the top-performing member of the S&P 500 for a second year running. In 2023, it was up +239%, ahead of Meta which had a +194% gain. In 2024 so far, Nvidia is up another +174%, far outpacing Constellation Energy in second place, which is “only” up 89%.
  • Exactly a decade ago the entire listed UK stock market was 400 times larger than Nvidia. In the last week Nvidia overtook it.

2. Technical Record? New Highs in Nasdaq with More Stocks Making 52-Week Lows

3. Only 1% of Small Cap Stocks at 52-Week Highs

4. Mortgage Rates Drop Below 7%

5. Robinhood 24 Hour Market….$20B in Overnight Trading

Found at Irrelevant Investor Blog

6. HOOD Stock Chart $8 December 2023…to $22

7. Gen Z Comfortable with “substantially more financial risk”

Barrons By Paul Andrews  
However a recent survey conducted by CFA Institute found a very different mindset among Gen Z investors. Those attitudes were forged in the fire of the Covid lockdowns from 2020 to 2022. Today they are shooting through our financial system, creating pressures that could cause problems down the road.

Our survey found that Gen Z is comfortable taking substantially more financial risk than previous generations were. In fact, they believe it’s necessary, with fully half of them saying they were comfortable taking significant financial risks to achieve their wealth goals. They told us they thought taking those risks was necessary because they believe the economic conditions they face were more challenging than any time in history.

That doesn’t strike my boomer ear as historically correct, but the reality almost doesn’t matter. It’s their perception, and it’s shaping their behavior.

Gen Z also has a surprising degree of confidence in its financial knowledge. Almost half said they knew more about investments than their parents, and about a third said they were very or extremely confident in their ability to make financial decisions.

But at the time of the survey, Gen Z’s No. 1 investment product was crypto. You’d think perhaps the remarkable risk inherent in that asset class, combined with the significant valuation beating it took, would have dented the Gen Z financial mindset. But with crypto’s remarkable rebound, apparently little has changed.

8. India and Mexico Elections

Post Elections….India (INDA) makes new highs vs. Mexico (EWW) -17%….EWW holding 2023 lows right now.

9. China to Regulate Lithium Battery Industry

China to regulate lithium-ion battery industry amid fast expansion
By Reuters

HONG KONG/BEIJING, June 19 (Reuters) – China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on Wednesday issued new guidelines for its lithium-ion battery industry, aiming to transform, upgrade and promote high-quality development amid rapid expansion in the sector.The guidelines, following a proposal in May, will help firms scale back manufacturing projects that only expand production capacity, while enhancing technology innovation and product quality and trimming output costs, the ministry said.
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Projects built on farmland and ecological zones would be required to be shut down, or strictly reined in and gradually removed.
Rapid expansion of production capacity along the lithium battery supply chain has led to a plunge in prices for products, including battery and raw materials, eroding companies’ profits in the world’s biggest market.
Industry planning and launch of new projects should be in line with national development of resources, ecological protection and energy saving management, the ministry said.
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Reporting by Farah Master, Ella Cao and Siyi Liu; Editing by Christopher Cushing and Bernadette Baum

Lithium ETF (LIT) close to breaking new lows.

10. Ten Principles of Mental Immune System Care

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 19 2024

1. NVDA Insiders Sell $700m in Shares…1/3 After May Earnings


2. 2024 Mag 1

Barrons – by Allan Sloan

3. NVDA vs. MAGS (Mag 7) ETF

This chart compares NVDA to Mag 7….straight up in 2024

4. S&P Top 5 Market Cap Trillions….Bottom 406 Market Cap Below $100B

Ritholtz Wealth Chart

5. Top 20 S&P Holdings Returns 2024

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright

6. Uranium Bull

Uranium vs. Lithium Chart…..LIT Lithium ETF about to make new lows.

7. Millionaires Fleeing China and….UK???

By Devon Pendleton-(Bloomberg)
 The UK is on track to lose 9,500 millionaires this year, more than any country in the world except China, according to a new report on the migration intentions of the world’s wealthy.
It’s more than double the number that left the country in
2023 and lags only China, which is expected to lose 15,200 millionaires this year, according to the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report, authored by migration advisory Henley & Partners.
“As the world grapples with a perfect storm of geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and social upheaval, millionaires are voting with their feet in record numbers,”
Dominic Volek, Henley’s group head of private clients, said Tuesday in a statement.
Read More: Britain’s Rich Race to Save Their Wealth From Election Hit The report’s numbers refer to net arrivals and exits, reflecting where millionaire populations are growing versus shrinking. Henley’s research partner New World Wealth estimated the migration figures based on relocation data, investment migration program statistics and interviews with intermediaries in the wealth industry.
The estimate comes as Britain girds for an election in just over two weeks where the opposition Labour Party, which is advocating for some higher taxes on the wealthy, has about a 20- point lead over the ruling Conservatives.
The recent uptick in departures of Britain’s ultra-wealthy residents is the acceleration of a trend that began around the time of Brexit. From 2017 through last year, the country lost
16,500 millionaires to migration, according to the report. The exodus is a reversal for the country that for decades served as a magnet for rich families from Europe, Asia, Africa and the Middle East, who mainly flocked to London.
More than 7% of the millionaires projected to move globally this year will be leaving the UK, the report shows. That reflects “a steady accumulation of factors” that are making the country less appealing to the rich, including Brexit, the energy crisis from the war in Ukraine and the subsequent rise in inflation, said Hannah White, chief executive officer of the Institute for Government in London.
“The outflow of high-net-worth individuals already generated by the economic and political context is now being accelerated by policy decisions ahead of the election,” she wrote in an analysis accompanying the Henley report.

8. What Retail Apocalypse? Shopping Centers Are Making a Comeback-NYT

By Joe Gose-NY Times 
Vacancy is the lowest it has been in two decades, at 5.4 percent, according to a recent report. The properties are thriving even as retailers like Macy’s and Express shutter many stores.
Shopping center landlords have found themselves in a wholly unfamiliar position: For the first time in 20 years, demand for retail space outstrips supply.
That demand has soared recently and, after years of muted construction and a purge of weak-performing properties, met a retail market with less available space. Properties that survived the purge signed up tenants that would draw more shoppers and give them more reason to linger. That meant more restaurants and venues that promote recreational experiences, like ax throwing and, more recently, pickleball. It also meant less space for traditional retailers that weren’t performing as well, like bookstores and apparel brands.
Because of those moves, “there’s not as much redundancy from tenants, and landlords are creating much more robust tenant mixes,” said Barrie Scardina, president of Americas retail services, agency leasing and alliances for Cushman & Wakefield, a real estate firm. “We are seeing some of the most productive occupancy recorded in the last 10 years.”
Shopping center vacancy is the lowest it has been in two decades, at 5.4 percent, Cushman & Wakefield said in a recent report, and the edge in lease negotiations has shifted from tenants back to landlords.

Colliers-Anjee Solanki,new%20deliveries%2C%20according%20to%20Colliers.

9. Home Prices Stagnate in Florida and Texas as Supply Soars -Redfin

Redfin by Lily Katz

  • The number of homes for sale in Cape Coral, FL and North Port, FL surged roughly 50% from a year earlier in March—more than anywhere else in the country. And in McAllen, TX, supply jumped 25%.
  • Housing supply is soaring because both states have been building a lot of homes, which is limiting home price growth. Buyer demand is also lackluster because many people are priced out. And in Florida, an insurance crisis is throwing a wrench into deals.
  • Nationwide, new listings slowed in March as mortgage rates remained elevated. The Fed recently warned rates are likely to stay high longer than expected.

On the west coast of Florida, housing supply is surging, sellers are cutting their asking prices and the time it takes to sell a home is soaring—all at a faster rate than anywhere else in the U.S. The story is similar in parts of Texas.
Florida and Texas have been building more homes than anywhere else in the country, partly to accommodate the flood of newcomers that showed up during the pandemic homebuying boom. But the boom is over, in part because many people have been priced out. Now, homes are sitting on the market and price growth is stagnating.
Here’s how these trends showed up in U.S. housing-market data for March, which covers 85 major metropolitan areas: 

  • Supply: Of the 10 metro areas that posted the largest year-over-year increases in supply, six are in Florida and two are in Texas. Cape Coral, FL saw the biggest jump in homes for sale (51%), followed by North Port-Sarasota, FL (48%), Fort Lauderdale, FL (30%), Tampa, FL (29%), McAllen, TX (25%), Orlando, FL (23%), Knoxville, TN (23%), Dallas (20%), West Palm Beach, FL (20%) and Cincinnati (17%).
  • Price drops: Of the 10 metro areas where sellers were most likely to cut their list prices, five are in Florida and two are in Texas. In North Port-Sarasota, 48% of listings had a price cut—the highest share in the country. Next came Tampa (44%), Indianapolis (43%), Cape Coral (41%), Denver (37%), Orlando (35%), Portland, OR (34%), Houston (33%), San Antonio (33%) and Jacksonville, FL (33%).
  • Prices: Median sale prices fell from a year earlier in three metros, one of which is in Florida and one of which is in Texas: North Port-Sarasota (-4.6%), Oklahoma City (-1.5%) and San Antonio (-0.3%). Prices climbed least in Austin, TX (0%), El Paso, TX (0.5%), Memphis, TN (0.7%), Tampa (1.1%), Salt Lake City (1.1%), Omaha, NE (1.2%) and Charleston, SC (1.2%).
  • Speed of sales: Of the 10 metros that saw the biggest upticks in median days on market, two are in Florida and two are in Texas: In Cape Coral, the typical home took 31 more days to sell than a year earlier—the largest jump in the nation. Next came North Port-Sarasota (20), McAllen (20), New Orleans (18), Tulsa, OK (13), Cincinnati (13), San Antonio (10), Greensboro, NC (8), Honolulu (7) and Knoxville (7).

“Out-of-town homebuyers no longer see Florida as a place to get amazing value. Now they’re moving to North Carolina or Tennessee to get a good deal. Many local blue-collar workers have been priced out of homeownership, too,” said Eric Auciello, a local Redfin sales manager. “Two years ago, the North Port metro was one of the most competitive housing markets in the country because it was affordable for remote workers and there was a shortage of homes for sale, but none of those things are true today. Sarasota, in particular, has been overvalued for decades, and the chickens have finally come to roost. The Tampa metro has been faring a bit better.”

10. The intentional stance -Seth’s Blog

Dan Dennett explained that it began as a survival mechanism. It’s important to predict how someone else is going to behave. That tiger might be a threat, that person from the next village might have something to offer.

If we simply wait and see, we might encounter an unwelcome or even fatal surprise. The shortcut that the intentional stance offers us is, “if I were them, I might have this in mind.” Assuming intent doesn’t always work, but it works often enough that all humans embrace it.

There’s the physical stance (a rock headed toward a window is probably going to break it) and the design stance (this ATM is supposed to dispense money, let’s look for the slot.) But the most useful and now problematic shortcut is imagining that others are imagining.

There used to be a chicken in an arcade in New York that played tic tac toe. The best way to engage with the chicken game was to imagine that the chicken had goals and strategies and that he was ‘hoping’ you would go there, not there.

Of course, chickens don’t do any hoping, any more than chess computers are trying to get you to fall into a trap when they set up an en passant. But we take the stance because it’s useful. It’s not an accurate portrayal of the state of the physical entity, but it might be a useful way to make predictions.

There’s a certain sort of empathy here, extending ourselves to another entity and imagining that it has intent. But there’s also a lack of empathy, because we assume that the entity is just like us… but also a chicken.

The challenge kicks in when our predictions of agency and intent don’t match up with what happens next.

AI certainly seems like it has earned both a design and an intentional stance from us. Even AI researchers treat their interactions with a working LLM as if they’re talking to a real person, perhaps a little unevenly balanced, but a person nonetheless.

The intentional stance brings rights and responsibilities, though. We don’t treat infants as though they want something the way we might, which makes it easier to live with their crying. Successful dog trainers don’t imagine that dogs are humans with four legs–they boil down behavior to inputs and outputs, and use operant conditioning, not reasoning, to change behavior.

Every day, millions of people are joining the early adopters who are giving AI systems the benefit of the doubt, a stance of intent and agency. But it’s an illusion, and the AI isn’t ready for rights and can’t take responsibility.

The collision between what we believe and what will happen is going to be significant, and we’re not even sure how to talk about it.

The intentional stance is often useful, but it’s not always accurate. When it stops being useful, we need to use a different model for how to understand and what to expect.

JUNE 17, 2024

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 18 2024

1. QQQ Chart

RSI short-term overbought.

2. IHistory of Buying the Largest Stock

Marketwatch By Mark Hulbert
This is illustrated in the accompanying chart, which plots the performance of a hypothetical strategy that each year invested in the U.S. stock with the largest market cap at the end of the prior year. Notice that the strategy significantly lags the S&P 500 SPX.

3. Stock Buyback Update

4. Buyback ETF PKW Trailing YTD…+4%

5. China Housing Market Not Improving

6. France Election Sell-Off was Coming Off +20% Spike

Rate-Cut Mania’s 20.7% Spike in French Stock Market Comes Home to Roost

7. E-Bikes Growth

8. Defense Expenditures Per NATO Country


US Presidential Election 2024 (

9. Half of the World’s Uranium Comes from Two Countries

10. Surgeon General: Social media needs cig-like warning


The top health official in the US is urging Congress to pass legislation that would stamp social media apps with a surgeon general’s warning “stating that social media is associated with significant mental health harms for adolescents,” he wrote in an op-ed for the New York Times yesterday.
Upping the pressure: Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy’s push for a warning label follows years of alarm-sounding with his strongest appeal to lawmakers yet.

  • In his statement, Murthy referenced a 2019 study that found risks of depression doubled among teens who scroll for more than three hours per day, and a 2023 Gallup poll showing that US teens log a daily average of 4.8 hours on social media.
  • “Why is it that we have failed to respond to the harms of social media when they are no less urgent or widespread than those posed by unsafe cars, planes or food?” Murthy wrote, alluding to driverless car permits getting rescinded, Boeing groundings and listeria-related dairy recalls this year.

Adding a warning label is likely to make some parents think twice about unsupervised scrolling, according to a recent Brookings study. Still, Murthy acknowledged that it wouldn’t be enough to make social media a kid-friendly space. So, he also asked Congress to pass measures that would:

  • Protect minors from online abuse and exposure to inappropriate content, bar social media platforms from gathering sensitive data from child users, and set limits on features including push notifications, autoplay, and infinite scrolling.
  • Require social media companies to be publicly transparent about their platform’s mental health effects and undergo independent safety audits.

Some states are already grinding. Laws enacted in Florida and Utah since March 2023 have raised the minimum age for social media account ownership. A recently passed New York bill that would ban companies from sharing children’s data and using algorithms in their feeds is awaiting the governor’s signature. More than 40 states have also sued Meta, alleging that it intentionally tries to get kids addicted to its platforms.—ML

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 17 2024

1. 10-Year Rate Drops 4.4% to 4.2%

More important on chart…Ten-Year yield makes two lower highs

2. Inflation 43% of CPI Basket Trending Down -Tom Lee

3. The Biggest Component of CPI has Moved Down for 14 Straight Months

4. Tech-Six Largest Stocks vs. Rest of S&P

5. S&P Cap Weight vs. Equal Weight Premium History

Market Ear Blog

6. It is not just the S&P Equal Weight….Nasdaq Equal Weigh ETF QQQE +5.7% YTD

7. Speaking of Equal Weight…Transports Index Bad Chart

Dow Transports 50day thru 200day to downside….Lower Highs.

8. The US installed more solar in Q1 2024 than it did in all of 2018

Michelle Lewis-Electrek Blog  In Q1 2024, the US saw the largest quarter of solar manufacturing growth in its history, bringing its total installed capacity to 200 GW.
A record-setting 11.8 gigawatts (GW) of new solar panel manufacturing capacity came online in the US during Q1 2024, making up 75% of all new electricity-generating capacity added to the US grid in that period.
According to the US Solar Market Insight Q2 2024 report released today by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie, total US solar panel manufacturing capacity increased to 26.6 GW in Q1 2024 compared to 15.6 GW in Q4 2023. Once this capacity fully ramps up, it will be enough to supply about 70% of US demand.
The report also contains new data showing that the US added over 40 GW of new solar capacity in 2023 – more than initially reported. Wood Mackenzie now projects that the US solar industry will install another 40 GW in 2024.

9. Solar ETF TAN Still Sideways -50% from Highs

10. Violent Crime Dropping in Major Cities -Axios

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 14 2024

1. Short-Interest at Record Lows.

2. Short Selling in Danger of Extinction?

Short Sellers in Danger of Extinction After Crushing Stock Gains

The business of betting on stock declines is shrinking as bearish investors face threats on all sides.

By Denitsa Tsekova and Carmen Reinicke

Jim Chanos quit after failing to raise capital. Carson Block’s firm launched its first long-only fund. Andrew Left dubbed his kind “a dying breed.”

These are bad times to be a bear on Wall Street.

After taking hits on multiple fronts, short sellers — who borrow and then sell stocks in a bid to profit from price declines — are in retreat. Thank the gravity-defying bull market, lingering regulatory threats, a day-trading horde randomly squeezing shares like GameStop Corp. ever higher, and more.

Short interest in a typical member of the S&P 500 is hovering around the lowest levels in more than two decades, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Assets in funds with a short bias have slumped to $4.6 billion from $7.8 billion in 2008, HFR data show, during a period when equity hedge funds overall nearly tripled in size. Activist campaigns like those pursued by Block and Left — where investors seek company flaws and bet against them before making their findings public — launched at the slowest pace in a decade in 2022, with only a tiny uptick last year.

3. Best Performance to Start Election Year.

@Charlie Bilello

4. Global Stock Flows are Second Largest on Record.

Market Ear Blog

5. P/E Ratios of S&P by Market Cap.

Torsten Slok, Ph.D. Chief Economist Apollo Looking at P/E ratios for companies in the S&P500 ranked by market cap shows that large-cap companies are much more expensive than small-cap companies, see chart below.

Why are P/E ratios low for small-cap companies and high for large-cap companies?  Because Fed hikes and higher costs of capital are weighing on highly leveraged small-cap companies with low coverage ratios.

And the AI story has boosted valuations of mega-cap names.  With the Fed keeping interest rates higher for longer and the AI narrative pushing valuations and index concentration to extreme levels, the downside risks to equities are growing.

6. S&P Value ETF Fails to Make New Highs …Rolling Over.

7. Ethereum ETF by End of Summer.

8. Inflation-Auto Insurance Cost Ticks Down.

Dave Lutz Jones Trading After 3 straight years of rising prices, auto insurance is finally getting cheaper –Last month was the first decline for CPI motor vehicle insurance since 2021 (!)

9. Home Mortgages 2024 vs. 1982

Found at Irrelevant Investor Blog

10. Wealth and Money Are Two Different Things- Darius Foroux

I wanted to be rich so badly for my entire life. And I always looked at wealth and money to be the same thing. Make a lot of money, get rich, and you’ll be wealthy! Simple, right?

In high school, I watched the film, Wall Street starring Michael Douglas and Charlie Sheen. It was supposed to be a cautionary tale about greed and insider trading in the stock market. But I saw the movie as an inspiration.

I wanted to be Gordon Gecko (played by Douglas), the crazy, high-risk Wall Street trader. When I was 17, I got a job at a call center during the summer. My routine looked like this:

  • I’d get on the phone every day, working double shifts.
  • I would sell mobile phone subscriptions to people, mostly the elderly.
  • It was a shameful job. But I was making money. So I’d keep doing it: making one sale after another.

This is how badly I wanted to get rich. But I was a teenage idiot. I didn’t know the difference between wealth and money.

Now, 20 years later, I finally understand that being rich and having a lot of money is not the same as being wealthy.

You can be wealthy and not rich

You can also be rich and not wealthy.

It takes most people a lifetime to understand that material wealth, which is acquired with money, is not the most important thing.

Genuine wealth means freedom.

Think about those people who have a lot of money but they can’t do the things they truly want. I wouldn’t call them wealthy. They are rich and have lots of money. But they’re not free.

When you have freedom, you have wealth. When you’re rich but you have no freedom, you’re caged.

The ancient Stoics understood this 2000 years ago. They are famous for living stringent and hard lives. Seneca said it well:

“I do not regard a man poor, if the little which remains is enough for him.”

People talk about Stoicism like it’s a philosophy for dealing with obstacles. No. Stoicism is a way of life. One that promotes freedom over everything.

Buying stuff doesn’t make you happy

I can’t believe 20 years have gone by since I had my first job when I finally made my first paycheck.

For the next decade, I did what everyone else did. I chased that paycheck. I wanted to acquire more money.

Then, in 2015, I realized it wasn’t the way to go. I started to write and focus on solving problems. I stopped focusing on money, but I started making more money than before.

That helped me to become financially free. But I experienced what every person who is doing well financially experiences: Living an unsatisfied life even with money. That’s because I was too focused on buying things.

Buying things will not make you happy. Everyone knows this. And yet, everyone needs to figure it out on their own. That’s when you start differentiating wealth from money.

What is life? A collection of your memories

At some point, we all realize that life is just a collection of our memories. You look back, and you don’t think, “Buying that new car really changed my life.”

No, you think:

“Remember when we all had to sleep in that one hotel room because we had no choice? We were so angry but we had a good time.”

That was me in 2014. My family came to London to help me move to a new apartment. At the time, I was living with a roommate and wanted to get my own place.

My parents and brother came from The Netherlands to help me. But the new apartment that I rented fell through, and we had to get a place to stay. I was soooo angry and discouraged.

We ended up sleeping in the hotel room that my parents had booked. Everything was fully booked in that hotel and I had no energy to find another place because it was late when I found out.

Don’t ask me how we did it, and it was really uncomfortable, but we still talk about that moment. It’s a memory baked into our minds.

We all have memories like that.

Think about your memories. Do they revolve around wealth and money?

I bet you $100 it doesn’t.

You probably think about the experiences you had with your family, friends, partner, or on your own.

That’s what life is about.

And if you can make enough money to have experiences, you have wealth.

Enjoy your life! And try not to be so obsessed with money.

Found at Abnormal Returns Blog