BofA noted, The cumulative gap between institutional selling and retail buying in the YTD is the largest of any comparable YTD period in our data history since ‘08 and the 2nd largest (after 2017) when normalized by market cap
For these lucky people, the experience of the Vanderbilts and their contemporaries offers a cautionary tale. At the turn of the 20th century, America’s census recorded about 4,000 millionaires, note Victor Haghani and James White, two wealth managers, in their book, The Missing Billionaires. Suppose a quarter of them had at least $5m (the richest had hundreds) and had invested it in America’s stockmarket. Had they then procreated at the average rate, paid their taxes and spent 2% of their capital each year, their descendants today would include nearly 16,000 old-money billionaires. In reality, it is a struggle to find a single one who traces their fortune back to the first Gilded Age.
ETH ETF flows. “US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded their largest weekly net inflows since launch – 225,857 ETH – extending a multi-week trend of growing institutional demand.”
Condo prices just posted their 2nd‑biggest YoY drop on record: –2.2% in May.
Why the slump?
80% more condo sellers than buyers
Surging HOA fees, insurance costs & special assessments
Financing hurdles
10. On Track for Lowest Murder Rate in History.
The US is on course for the lowest murder rate in its history this year. After years of decline, crime spiked in 2020 and 2021, with murders reaching their highest since the mid-1990s. But they have since dropped precipitously, and continue to do so: The Real-Time Crime Index recorded 2,095 homicides in January to April, the most recent data available, down 20% from the same period last year. The data analyst Jeff Asher wrote in May that the figures were set to be lower than 2014’s murder rate record of 4.45 per 100,000, and that increased investment in local communities was likely a factor. Violent and property crime are both also close to record low levels, Asher wrote.
Vanguard owns more than 20 million shares, nearly 8%, of all of Strategy’s (MSTR) outstanding Class A common stock, and likely surpassed Capital Group Cos. for the no. 1 spot sometime in the fourth quarter, according to data compiled by Bloomberg based on regulatory filings. The dozens of Vanguard mutual funds and ETFs that hold the stakes track everything from small- and mid-cap benchmarks to momentum, value and growth gauges, among o “God has a sense of humor,” said Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence and author of The Bogle Effect. “Vanguard chose this life. When you have an index fund, you have to own all the stocks, for better or worse, and that includes stocks that you may not like or approve of personally.”thers.
Google spent $2.4 billion to hire the leaders of an artificial intelligence programming company, the latest big-ticket move in an intensifying AI talent war. Windsurf’s CEO and co-founder will join Google DeepMind along with several top employees. Tech giants buying stakes in rivals attracts the attention of antitrust regulators, but hiring decisions do not, The New York Times reported; Google’s huge outlay is comparable to a soccer team paying a transfer fee to acquire a top player’s contract. Meta, too, has been on a hiring spree recently, sometimes offering compensation packages of up to $100 million for top talent, as it tries to make up ground in the AI race.
$TRUMP was listed in an average of 4 days by exchanges, vs 129 days for other big coins
Three crypto exchanges say they moved to list $TRUMP fast because of customer demand
Exchanges say no corners were cut in vetting the coin for listing
White House says Trump coin poses ‘no conflicts of interest’
NEW YORK, July 14 (Reuters) – Crypto exchange Coinbase assures users on its website that it puts any new digital coin through “rigorous” vetting before allowing it to trade. It’s an at-times lengthy process meant to protect customers by examining the people connected to the project and the risk of market manipulation or other scams.
With President Donald Trump’s crypto token, $TRUMP, Coinbase made up its mind in just one day.
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The $TRUMP token, which launched three days before his inauguration in January, is a meme coin. Based on cultural fads or celebrities, these coins have no intrinsic value and – past experience has shown – are prone to large price swings that can leave investors with losses.
A Reuters analysis of crypto market data and industry announcements found that, compared to other recent large meme coins, the biggest crypto exchanges took Trump’s to market with unusual speed, despite stating they vet risky coins thoroughly to protect small investors.
Some also approved the listing in spite of the high share of coins concentrated in the hands of Trump and his partners, which would normally represent a red flag because of the risk that dumping of tokens by insiders could collapse the price and hurt other investors, some executives said.
After reaching an all-time high of $75.35 on April 19, just two days after its launch, $TRUMP crashed to the $7 range by early April, leaving many holders nursing losses. It was trading around $9.55 Thursday.
Afriend passed along a recent blog post from Drive by DraftKings, a venture capital firm whose founding partners include (wait for it) DraftKingsDKNG $43.85 (1.91%), titled, “The Gen Z Effect: The Behavioral Shift Shaping Gaming, Fandom, and Human Performance.”
Here’s a passage that piqued my interest (emphasis added)
“Gen Z’s approach to gaming is clear. They gravitate toward formats that are fast, emotionally charged, and offer the chance at a meaningful payoff. Traditional, slow-paced gameplay is losing ground to experiences that deliver instant feedback and the possibility of an outsized win.
This is why crash games, meme stocks, and parlay bets have gained so much traction with this generation. These formats share a common formula: low-cost entry, high potential upside, and just enough unpredictability to keep things exciting. A recent Morgan Stanley survey found that 60% of bettors aged 21 to 34 have placed parlays, a rate nearly 30% higher than the overall population. Similarly, around 30% of US stock investors aged 18 to 24 have invested in meme stocks compared to 12% of investors ages 45-54.
It’s not just the payout that attracts Gen Z. It’s the emotional volatility, the rush of possibility, and the shareable nature of “just-missed” or jackpot moments. The appeal is simple: put down a small amount, take a swing, and hope to hit it big. Most of these bets won’t pay off, but the ones that do tend to go viral. Social media elevates these wins, creating a sense of FOMO that draws others in. It becomes a feedback loop of visibility, aspiration, and repeat behavior, which keeps Gen Z highly engaged and emotionally invested in the experience.”
To riff on this conception of a “common formula” between parlays and meme stock punts, which often take place through the options market to access embedded leverage:
Both parlays and short-term options punts are examples of things where you need multiple things to go right to win. In parlays, it’s discrete (usually sports-related) outcomes; in options, you need to get the direction and magnitude right by a certain point in time.
This is why I love the use of options as a storytelling device: they are always and everywhere a greed, fear, or complacency play built around a specific date by which something needs to either happen or not happen. There’s a subject, verb, and time.
“I think one thing that’s very clear about Gen Z is that they’ve repeatedly been told nobody is coming to save you,” Emily Sundberg, author of the Feed Me Substack, said at a live taping of Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast. “You hear this sense of ‘get the bag while the world is still here for you to make some money out of it.’”
Kind of ironic that the generation that thinks nothing in the world is going right for them seeks out betting and trading structures that require multiple things to go right to profit.
Is this really a Gen Z thing, though?
One can quibble about some of this line of thought. And I will. The 2021 meme stock boom was occurring when the average member of Gen Z was just in their early high school years. I doubt many of them were part of the Apes Together Strong crew.
The “YOLO” catchphrase that serves as a shorthand for the kind of “eff it, we ball” approach to life was popularized by a somewhat seasoned millennial.
And to dodge any accusations of millennial-boosting, manias have existed well before we were a twinkle in our boomer parents’ eyes and will continue to persist long after we’re ashes. To this author, a person’s willingness to dive headfirst into booms is much more defined by their stage of life rather than the generation they belong to. Oh, to be young…
Gen Z likes structures with huge payoffs that often end in busts? How convenient for the VC firm, which concludes that the shifts in Gen Z behavior “reinforce why we focus where we do — on the edge of behavioral change, where category defining companies are born,” highlighting portfolio companies Triumph and Picklebet as great examples of firms whose products have been built for this generation.
Bitcoin ETF flows. “$IBIT blew through the $80b mark last night, fastest ETF to get there in 374 days, about 5x faster than the previous record, held by $VOO, which did it in 1,814 days. Also at $83b it’s now 21st biggest ETF overall.”
5. SPACS, Reverse Mergers and Digital Assets Joining Up
Bloomberg-For dealmakers who cultivated crypto relationships through the industry’s troubled years — not to mention who hung in during the post-pandemic collapse of the SPAC boom — now is the time to cash in. The appeal of blank-checks is in their relative speed. Unlike IPOs that can take more than six months, a reverse takeover or SPAC deal can be agreed in weeks, according to Paul McCaffery, KBW’s co-head of digital assets.
A rebound in token prices and a more permissive US regulatory environment have emboldened crypto firms, leading to more deals, particularly among SPACs and reverse mergers.
8. US government to invest in rare earths production
Jonathan Josephs–Business reporter, BBC News•jonathanjosephs
Bloomberg/Getty
The US government is to become the biggest shareholder in the country’s only operational rare earths mine.
It is also going to take a series of other steps to underpin the future of the operation in Mountain Pass, California.
Rare earths are essential to huge amounts of modern technology, such as electric cars and wind turbines.
Access to these metals has been at the heart of a US-China trade war, with Beijing controlling about 90% of global processing capacity.
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MP Materials, which owns the mine, has entered into an agreement with the US Department of Defense that is designed to reduce America’s dependency on imports of rare earths.
The deal means that for the next 10 years the US government will commit to MP Materials receiving a minimum price of $110 per kg for its neodymium and praseodymium output.
These are two of the most in-demand of the 17 different rare earths for the global economy. They are crucial for making permanent magnets, which are found in everything from smartphones to MRI scanners and electric motors.
The move follows concerns that China has used its near total control of the industry to push prices down and force companies in other countries out of business.
Macro conditions. “The overall equity movement is perceived as occurring in one of the most favorable macro environments, characterized by a depreciating dollar, narrowing credit spreads, subdued inflation, and interest rates remaining below 4.5%.”
2. Last Week Top 10 Showed the 50day Crossing thru 200day to Upside…History of Bullish Signal
@Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm) Golden Cross — more history: And here’s some more history and stats on the Golden Cross… one thing to note from this is that there are a couple of exceptions to its positive performance, and mileage does vary even when it correctly flags upside, and of course you do see more variation in short-term vs longer-term returns subsequent to the signal activating.
Subu Trade
3. 1st Half Recap-All Asset Classes
Spilled Coffee: At the half way point of the year, platinum, soybean oil and gold lead the returns. Orange juice and cocoa have had a rough 2025.
Mike Zaccardi
4. Inflows Stopped from Foreign Investors…Keep in Mind Pre-Election International Retail was Max-US Stocks
DB noted, the buyer strike on US assets continues. April TIC data doesn’t disprove de-dollarization―foreigners don’t need to sell US assets to weaken the dollar, only to stop buying. High-frequency flow data and ETF/EPFR databases show almost no foreign buying of US bonds or equities in recent months. Domestic investors may be driving the rally, but foreigners remain on the sidelines.
Zachary Goldberg Jefferies
5. We Know U.S. Stocks Have Record Spread vs. Emerging Markets…But Developed International vs. Emerging Close to Record Spread As Well
Topdown Charts
6. Growth Stocks Back in Lead….Berkshire Breaks 200day to Downside
StockCharts
7. Five-Year Jump in U.S. Electricity Consumption
WSJ
8. Supreme Court-Last 2 Years…42% of Rulings Unanimous and only 9% of Cases were Ideological 6-3 Split
WSJ
9. Far Fewer Teens are Drinking Alcohol
Sherwood
10. Myths and Facts About Dopamine
Psychology Today: Here’s Lerner, in her own words, on various myths about dopamine.
5 Myths About Dopamine
Myth #1: Dopamine equals pleasure.
False. While dopamine is often released when something pleasurable happens, its biggest role is in reinforcement learning—helping us learn from behaviors or cues that predict outcomes. Pleasure is not a necessary feature of this learning process.
Myth #2: More dopamine, more happiness.
False. Since low levels of dopamine are associated with depression, people might conclude that higher dopamine levels will lead to happiness. And dopamine does play a role in motivation, which could be related to happiness.
But there’s a difference between the motivation to pursue a reward and the actual happiness you derive from receiving the reward. Dopamine is about the motivation to pursue rewards. It’s not the happiness of it—it’s the willingness and the drive to engage in things that might bring that feeling.
Myth #3: Scrolling is rewarding because it produces dopamine.
Not exactly. Dopamine does different things across different brain circuits. When scrolling for the next interesting post or the next “like,” dopamine helps detect reward prediction errors—the moments when something unexpectedly good could happen.
Social media acts like a slot machine, where uncertainty and surprise engage the dopamine system. Because dopamine reinforces behavior, you want to do it again. You think that your scrolling caused the unexpected reward, which motivates you to re-engage in that behavior.
Dopamine is about that surprise and motivation, especially from behaviors that involve uncertainty about what reward you’ll find. We obviously feel the burst of pleasure, but other neurotransmitters (serotonin and norepinephrine) are also responsible for it.
Myth #4: A dopamine detox can be beneficial.
It’s complicated. “Dopamine detox” refers to the idea that temporarily refraining from daily pleasures can reset the brain’s reward sensitivity, reduce our dependence on instant gratification, and ultimately, help us lead happier lives.
In a way, it’s a strategy for managing hedonic adaptation—our tendency to get used to things over time. Repeating the same behaviors can lose their novelty and excitement. If I eat ice cream every day, I might feel more upset if I don’t get it than truly happy when I do. But if I only rarely eat ice cream, it will feel like a special treat, and I’ll be genuinely excited to get it. Refraining from routine pleasures can help us appreciate them.
The myth comes from blaming all of this on dopamine—it’s misleading from a neuroscientific perspective. A more accurate term could be “pleasure detox.” In addition, “dopamine detox” makes it sound like we want to make dopamine go away, which is nonsense.
Myth #5: We can hack the dopamine system.
True. By understanding how dopamine shapes learning and behavior, we could design strategies to train both good and bad habits.
For example, slot machines aren’t inherently interesting; you’re just pulling a lever over and over again. But with just the right level of unpredictability, lights and sounds, and the occasional rewards of winning, slot machines are engineered to keep you engaged.
Similarly, to sustain motivation when developing new habits, try incorporating elements of surprise and novelty. Instead of forcing yourself to do something, keep it engaging enough to want to repeat it. Even when doing the same routine, like going on a daily walk, pay attention to the little surprises. Whether it’s the weather, your mood, or the sounds, there’s always something new to notice. As the Greek philosopher Heraclitus said 2,000 years ago, “You cannot step into the same river twice.” It’s all about how we engage with our experiences.
10 Facts About Dopamine
Dopamine is ancient. Its function as a neurotransmitter has been conserved through evolution across various species, from worms to humans.
Compared to the overall size of the human brain, the number of dopamine neurons is relatively small (only about 400,000 to 600,000 out of around 86 billion).
Dopamine neurons are among the largest and most connected cells in the brain. They are mostly located in the midbrain—the ventral tegmental area and the substantia nigra. In rats, a single dopamine neuron can send out electrical signal branches (axonal arborizations) that are 1 meter in length and form 30 thousand synapses. In humans, this number can reach hundreds of thousands.
Listening to music can activate the brain’s dopaminergic reward system. Expectation and anticipation are key to the pleasure we experience from music.
Dysfunctions in dopamine transmission are a feature of various mental, psychiatric, and neurological disorders, including depression, Parkinson’s, ADHD, and substance use disorders.
Many medications work by altering or stimulating dopamine receptor activity, its synthesis, and reuptake.
Dopamine rarely acts alone. Whenever dopamine is released into the brain, other neurotransmitters, like glutamate and GABA, are likely being co-released by dopamine neurons. This concept is referred to as dopamine’s “multilingual” nature.
Dopamine transmission can occur at different speeds. Fast transmission happens when dopamine neurons fire in bursts. Dopamine neurons also fire steadily, like a clock. This tonic firing maintains a baseline level of dopamine on top of which bursts can be layered in response to important or unexpected events, explains Lerner.
Dopamine levels follow a circadian rhythm—we have higher dopamine levels when we are awake, and lower during sleep.
Both the amount of dopamine present and its timing are important for when brain plasticity can occur and learning can take place. “Dopamine acts as a dynamic signal to time brain plasticity,” says Lerner.
Dopamine and the Good Life
Dopamine, undoubtedly, plays a central role in a good life. But perhaps not merely in ways we imagine. “Dopamine isn’t good or bad,” notes Lerner. “It trains you to do what you’re trying to do.”
Let’s say you are trying to infuse your days with joy and meaning, connection and purpose. By paying attention to the small pleasures and the unexpected rewards on our journeys, dopamine supports us throughout the pursuit of our goals, not just at the bright lights of the finish line. It’s what makes a lifelong adventure of learning and discovery possible.
