1. War and the Market
Barron’s
2. Iran Regime Structure
3. Iran Volunteer Militia-Basij…40k-54k Bases in Country
Perplexity
4. American Support for Military Action-Prof G Newsletter
Prof G Markets
5. History of Bitcoin -50% Bears
Nasdaq Dorsey Wright
Nasdaq Dorsey Wright-There have been six other instances in which BTC fell more than 50% from highs before returning to all-time highs. Once Bitcoin officially moves 50% away from its highs, it tends to do pretty well over the following months. Specifically, it averages a 14% return, which is roughly in line with Bitcoin’s 17.1% gain over the last month. However, things usually take a turn for the worse after the first month. Of those six instances, five of them were lower after a full year, averaging a one-year decline of 19%, which bodes poorly for the upcoming year. That said, if Bitcoin’s outlook has taken a turn for the worse, when could we expect the cryptocurrency to potentially bottom and recover?
Of those six instances in which Bitcoin fell an initial 50%, it averaged a maximum drawdown of 76.6%. Said differently, Bitcoin typically gets cut in half for a second time after the initial 50% decline. Additionally, it took an average of 5.7 months after falling 50% before it reached those respective bottoms. Extrapolating that to our current environment, six months from our initial 50% decline would mean that things could bottom in August of this year, but downside has persisted for more than a year as well. Once Bitcoin finally bottomed out in those instances, it took an average of 15 months to get back to all-time highs. However, it’s also taken as long as 25 months and as short as 4 months.
One interesting trend with Bitcoin is that it tends to see a pronounced decline roughly every four years, bottoming in late 2011, 2015, late 2018, and 2022. However, those steeper declines have gradually become less intense over time. For context, Bitcoin was down 76.6% in 2022, but it would’ve needed an additional 70% decline from that point to match 2011’s 93.1% decline. Using some guesswork and continuing that trend, it wouldn’t be surprising to see things bottom out around a drawdown of 70%, which would correspond to a price of around $38k for Bitcoin. Granted, that’s a guess assuming things continue lower, but it also falls roughly in line with the ~75% average drawdown when Bitcoin does fall 50%.
6. Fear & Greed Index
CNN Network
7. U.S. Gasoline Consumption Sideways for 25 Years
Wolf Street
8. Solo Leisure Activities Trending Up
Chartr
9. Number of Countries by Continent
10. Americans Support for Election Law Policies-Gallup
