1. Recent History of Incoming and Outgoing Dow Constituents
The graph below shows the performance of the Dow index, an equal-weight portfolio of the three stocks coming into the index, and an equal-weight portfolio of the three stocks going out of the index. For the past three years, the outgoing members shown in black have hugely underperformed the incoming members indicated by the blue line.
2-3. This Bull Market is the Longest But Still Not Strongest…..1990’s Internet Bubble Ending Was Strongest.
Which Bull Will It Be?
Posted by lplresearch
Market Blog
The incredible rally off the March 23 bear market bottom continues, with the S&P 500 Index up more than 50% from those fateful lows. It feels like a lifetime since the longest bull market ever ended. Remember though, although the recent bull market was the longest, it wasn’t the greatest, as the 1990s bull gained more on a percentage basis.
We discussed in detail what the new highs in the S&P 500 meant here, so we won’t dive into that again. But this time we’ll show just how this rally ranks versus others that ended major bear markets. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, this new bull market, up to this point of about five months, is stronger than any other major bull market’s start going back to World War II.
“Yes, this new bull market is the strongest bull market we’ve ever seen after five months,” explained LPL Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But that shouldn’t be a source of worry. The previous two strongest rallies up to this point were in 1982 and 2009, and both saw continued strength during the first year of the new bull market.”
Here is a chart showing just this bull market and the ’82 and ’09 bull markets.
https://lplresearch.com/2020/08/26/which-bull-will-it-be/
4. Corporate Defaults Have Tripled
Capital Group Blog
- Corporate defaults have jumped, but the default rate has been low for a very long time
- The market for lower rated companies is much less efficient, so there’s more opportunity to differentiate and find value
- Especially over the long term, returns on high-yield bonds (BB/Ba and lower) can provide investors who are willing to take a little higher risk of loss a significant income boost
https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/corporate-defaults-triple.html
5. Warren Buffett: The Best Way to Learn About Business
Buffett’s comments from 1998 about business schools
August 21, 2020 | About: BRK.A +0.37% BRK.B +0.35%
Over the years, Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio) has criticized business schools for the way they teach students. Buffett has disagreed with business schools’ views on the cost of capital and efficient market theory, to name just two points. He’s also attacked the way business schools teach students about business valuation.
Buffett was taught how to value companies by the dean of value investing, Benjamin Graham. Over the years, he’s developed and refined the strategy, building his own views into Graham’s fundamental base.
The Oracle of Omaha has never laid out the exact process he uses to value businesses, and that may be because there isn’t one. He has so much experience evaluating companies, he knows what to look for and what to avoid without consulting a guide.
The best way to learn
Buffett has made some comments in the past about the best way to learn company valuation. Indeed, at the 1998 Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B) annual meeting of investors, he proclaimed that if he were to run a business school, Buffett would get students to study business after business, rather than focusing on other topics. Here’s what he said at the time:
“I were teaching a course on investments, there would be simply one valuation study after another with the students, trying to identify the key variables in that particular business, and evaluating how predictable they were first, because that is the first step.”
The aim of this process, he explained, would be to get students to recognize essential qualities to help them find a handful of successful investments:
“If something is not very predictable, forget it. You know, you don’t have to be right about every company. You have to make a few good decisions in your lifetime. But then when you find the important thing is to know when you find one where you really do know the key variables which ones are important and you do think you’ve got a fix on them. Where we’ve been where we’ve done well, Charlie and I made a dozen or so very big decisions relative to net worth, but not as big as they should have been. And we’ve known we were right on those going in. I mean they just weren’t that complicated. And we knew we were focusing on the right variables and they were dominant. And we knew that even though we couldn’t take it out to five decimal places or anything like that, we knew that in a general way we were right about them. And that’s what we look for. The fat pitch. And that’s what I would be teaching trying to teach students to do. And I would not try to teach them to think they could do the impossible.”
Buffett has issued similar advice many times in his career. Finding good investments isn’t an exact science; it is an art. The only way to get good at this art, like any other creative business, is practice. There’s no short cut to this process; that’s why good investing isn’t easy. It requires years of experience and learning.
Buffett has been studying businesses for decades, so he knows what makes a good company and what does not. He’s built the experience through thousands of hours of investment research and study.
He has a general interest in business as well, which gives him a bit of an advantage as he’s always interested in learning more about companies and sectors. This has to be one of the Oracle’s top advantages compared to the rest of the investment sector.
Buffett is always learning and improving. There’s no short-cut to this process. Investors have to want to do the work to get ahead.
Disclosure: The author owns shares in Berkshire Hathaway.
https://www.gurufocus.com/news/12153
6. Covid Year to Date vs. WW II
Covid-19 Has Now Cost Us Nearly as Much as WWIIBut instead of spending trillions fighting the enemy, we’re making sure the Nasdaq doesn’t decline
https://marker.medium.com/covid-19-has-now-cost-us-nearly-as-much-as-wwii-925bb98c9447
7. In Shadow of Pandemic, U.S. Drug Overdose Deaths Resurge to Record-NYT
By Josh Katz, Abby Goodnough and Margot Sanger-KatzJuly 15, 2020
Drug deaths in America, which fell for the first time in 25 years in 2018, rose to record numbers in 2019 and are continuing to climb, a resurgence that is being complicated and perhaps worsened by the coronavirus pandemic.
Nearly 72,000 Americans died from drug overdoses last year, according to preliminary data released Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — an increase of 5 percent from 2018. Deaths from drug overdoses remain higher than the peak yearly death totals ever recorded for car accidents, guns or AIDS, and their acceleration in recent years has pushed down overall life expectancy in the United States.
Found at Morning Brew https://www.morningbrew.com/?utm_expid=.ZTQPzZIzTFOdxoi4D0Ey0Q.0&utm_referrer=
8. One In Five Adults Get Their Political Views Primarily Thru Social Media
Americans Who Mainly Get Their News on Social Media Are Less Engaged, Less Knowledgeable
Those who rely on social media for news are less likely to get the facts right about the coronavirus and politics and more likely to hear some unproven claims
BY AMY MITCHELL, MARK JURKOWITZ, J. BAXTER OLIPHANT AND ELISA SHEARER
9. 55% OF PROFESSIONALS MISS THE PHYSICAL OFFICE
Aug 21, 2020, 4:50 pm
Do you miss going into a physical office? As it turns out, more than ½ of professionals do.Professionals Miss Going To A Physical Office
Here are some key learnings (08/20-08/21)
1. 55% of surveyed professionals miss going into a physical office
o 70% of Google professionals miss going into a physical office, compared to 31% of Salesforce professionals
2. 42% of surveyed professionals state that compared to an in office setting, their stress levels during WFH are overall higher
o . 59% of Google professionals say their stress levels during WFH are overall higher
o 40% of Facebook professionals say their stress during WFH are overall higher
3. 29% of surveyed professionals state that compared to an in office setting, their productivity levels during WFH are overall lower
o . 52% of Apple professionals state that compared to an in office setting, their productivity levels during WFH are overall lower
o 46% of Facebook professionals state that compared to an in office setting, their productivity levels during WFH are overall lower
Look at the raw data:
One Amazon user writes: “Folks working at companies with a ton of in office benefits (Google, FB) – do you miss the free food and everything while wfh? Have your companies offered to compensate in some other way? All put together, those benefits probably had a modest dollar amount associated with them.”
Q1 Comparison
|
Do you miss going into a physical office? |
Yes |
No |
Grand Total |
|
622 |
502 |
1124 |
|
|
55% |
45% |
100% |
|
Do you miss going into a physical office? |
Yes |
No |
Grand Total |
|
Microsoft |
58% |
42% |
106 |
|
Amazon |
53% |
47% |
94 |
|
|
70% |
30% |
50 |
|
|
72% |
28% |
29 |
|
Apple |
56% |
44% |
27 |
|
Oracle |
72% |
28% |
25 |
|
Cisco |
71% |
29% |
24 |
|
Intel Corporation |
43% |
57% |
23 |
|
|
62% |
38% |
21 |
|
Uber |
60% |
40% |
20 |
|
VMware |
47% |
53% |
17 |
|
Salesforce |
31% |
69% |
16 |
|
Adobe |
50% |
50% |
16 |
|
Lyft |
81% |
19% |
16 |
|
Walmart |
57% |
43% |
14 |
|
Capital One |
64% |
36% |
11 |
|
Intuit |
40% |
60% |
10 |
Q2 Comparison
|
Compared to an in office setting, your stress levels during WFH are: |
Overall higher |
The same |
Overall lower |
Grand Total |
|
424 |
302 |
273 |
999 |
|
|
42% |
30% |
27% |
100% |
|
Compared to an in office setting, your stress levels during WFH are: |
Overall higher |
The same |
Overall lower |
Grand Total |
|
Microsoft |
47% |
30% |
23% |
92 |
|
Amazon |
43% |
30% |
28% |
87 |
|
|
59% |
27% |
15% |
41 |
|
|
40% |
40% |
20% |
25 |
|
Oracle |
42% |
42% |
17% |
24 |
|
Apple |
26% |
35% |
39% |
23 |
|
Cisco |
65% |
30% |
5% |
20 |
|
|
63% |
21% |
16% |
19 |
|
Intel Corporation |
32% |
32% |
37% |
19 |
|
Uber |
44% |
22% |
33% |
18 |
|
Lyft |
38% |
38% |
25% |
16 |
|
VMware |
50% |
21% |
29% |
14 |
|
Walmart |
25% |
17% |
58% |
12 |
|
Salesforce |
25% |
50% |
25% |
12 |
|
Adobe |
45% |
45% |
9% |
11 |
Q3 Comparison
|
Compared to an in office setting, your productivity levels during WFH are: |
Overall higher |
The same |
Overall lower |
Grand Total |
|
335 |
361 |
281 |
977 |
|
|
34% |
37% |
29% |
100% |
|
Compared to an in office setting, your productivity levels during WFH are: |
Overall higher |
The same |
Overall lower |
Grand Total |
|
Microsoft |
31% |
35% |
34% |
89 |
|
Amazon |
39% |
33% |
28% |
85 |
|
|
32% |
22% |
46% |
41 |
|
|
28% |
20% |
52% |
25 |
|
Apple |
35% |
48% |
17% |
23 |
|
Oracle |
26% |
39% |
35% |
23 |
|
Cisco |
38% |
48% |
14% |
21 |
|
|
37% |
26% |
37% |
19 |
|
Intel Corporation |
42% |
32% |
26% |
19 |
|
Uber |
41% |
35% |
24% |
17 |
|
Lyft |
44% |
38% |
19% |
16 |
|
VMware |
46% |
38% |
15% |
13 |
|
Salesforce |
42% |
33% |
25% |
12 |
|
Walmart |
42% |
33% |
25% |
12 |
|
Adobe |
45% |
27% |
27% |
11 |
https://www.valuewalk.com/2020/08/professionals-miss-physical-office/
10. How to Nail Your Goals with This Simple Secret
4 Keys to Accomplish the Goals You Keep Missingby Megan Hyatt Miller
This is a guest post by Megan Hyatt Miller. Megan is the Chief Operating Officer of Michael Hyatt & Co. She is also Michael’s oldest daughter. Megan, her husband Joel, and their four children make their home in Franklin, Tennessee.
Most of us start pursuing our goals with great focus and intensity, but roadblocks inevitably surface before we’re far down the road. We might be tempted to quit, or simply redouble our efforts in an effort to scale the obstacle, but the secret may be tossing our strategy out the window and trying an alternate approach.
I’ve been steadily working to reclaim my fitness, working out with a trainer consistently for several months, doing cardio on my off days, and dialing in my nutrition. In fact, it felt so good to feel strong again, that I pushed it a little harder than I should have.
Just as all my hard work started to pay off, I noticed a pain developing in my foot. I tried to ignore it for several weeks, but eventually I gave in and went to the doctor, only to discover I had a stress fracture in my fourth metatarsal. As I walked out of the doctor hobbling in my boot, I felt angry, defeated, and ready to quit. But I didn’t.
Instead, I went to a local gym, signed up, and started using equipment that would keep me active while letting my foot rest. It’s an example of a simple but powerful secret: The way to achieve our goals is to hold them tightly and our strategies loosely.
A Goal Setting Super Power
I used to feel like a failure when I would change strategy to accomplish my goals. I worried I might lack commitment, or just be a bad planner. After all, if I were better at setting goals, wouldn’t I have nailed the strategy the first time? But over the years I’ve realized my ability to zig and zag with strategy is not a mark of failure, but instead a goal setting super power.
This year, I’ve already changed strategy multiple times in three major areas—and those are the areas where I’m making the most progress. Whether it’s my health and fitness goals, Michael Hyatt & Co. growth targets, or my children, I rarely achieve anything significant that doesn’t require at least a handful of significant strategy changes.
Why? Because we only have limited visibility when we set our goals. Think about it: How could you possibly plan for all the contingencies that will happen in a 365-day period on January 1 (or whenever you set your annual goals)? I haven’t had a year yet where unforeseen obstacles, challenges, and opportunities presented themselves in a constant parade.
What Helmuth von Moltke said about war applies perfectly to reaching our goals:
[N]o plan of operations extends with any certainty beyond the first contact with the main hostile force. . . . [T]he commander in chief will always keep his main objective in mind and will not be swayed by the changeability of events. Nevertheless, the way in which he hopes to attain that objective cannot be laid out in advance with any degree of certainty.
Instead, von Moltke said commanders will keep their objectives in view but use their judgment to react in the moment.
4 Keys to Cultivate Your Super Power
Before I make it sound like this kind of magical flexibility comes naturally to me, I have to confess I am not naturally flexible at all. Just ask my husband and kids. In fact, on the StrengthsFinder test of 34 strengths, my lowest scoring strength is Adaptability. I’m basically a life-long underachiever in the flexibility department. That’s good news, because this is less of a natural aptitude and more of a skill that anyone can cultivate.
If, like me, you can’t rely on your natural ability to excel at flexibility, here are 4 keys to help you cultivate this in yourself.
1. There are no sacred cows. Your goals may be sacred, but your strategy sure isn’t. All that matters is whether or not it works. If the answer is no, you should feel free—compelled, even—to chuck it out the window and try something else.
2. A plan is still important. You might be tempted to think creating a game plan to accomplish your goals is a waste of time. Far from it. After all, having a plan is what gets us in motion, moving toward our goals. Without it, we would likely never get out of the gate. Just remember to hold it loosely as obstacles arise.
3. Possibility thinking is the secret sauce. Shifting gears from one strategy to the next presumes that you believe a better strategy exists, even if you don’t know what it is yet. This is part of what helps you hold your plans loosely. Focus on staying out of a place of scarcity, and in a place of abundance that says, “My best thinking, and my best strategies have yet to be discovered. There are always more ways to get there than I can see right now.”
4. Show your work. If you’re leading a team, this is a critical final step. You must explain your rationale for changing strategy to your team, and you must enroll them in your vision. This sets your team up for alignment with you, and the willingness to follow where you lead, even if it’s disruptive in the short term. As a leader, you must also be intentional about building a culture where flexibility, change, and risk taking are affirmed, so when you display these traits, they are seen as positive, not negative.
I take my goals very seriously. Too seriously to think my strategies are sacred. Think of it like driving to an important event. Maybe the road you initially chose was the quickest way—until an accident ground everything to a stop. If you can turn off the road and find a better route, do you take it or just creep along and miss your meeting?
The way to achieve our goals is to hold them tightly and our strategies loosely.Megan Hyatt Miller
The key to developing your own goal setting super power is to develop your tolerance for “changing your route” as often as you need to get to your goal.
Question: What route adjustments (or changes in strategy) do you need to make, today, to accomplish your goals? Share your answer on Facebook, Twitter, or LinkedIn.
https://michaelhyatt.com/nail-your-goals/
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