Category Archives: Daily Top Ten

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 19 2024

1. $190 Trillion in Treasuries Traded 2023..10-Year Treasury Approaching 4%


2. Earnings Upgrades Moving to Non-Tech Sectors

DC Lite Blog 
EPS sentiment. “Earnings-per-share upgrades have fallen sharply for the Nasdaq 100, while upgrades for the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 are on the rise.”

Albert Edwards – Societe Generale via Business Insider


3. 12-Month Forward Earnings Estimates for AI is Falling

Market Ear Blog


4. Equity Inflows Slow in August

Marketwatch Barbara Kollmeyer  August, he adds, is typically the “worst month of the year for equity flows. There are no predicted inflows in August as the capital has already been deployed for [the third quarter]. Buyers are out of ammo and I am on the look out for outflows,” Rubner says, providing this chart:


5. We Showed Chart Earlier in Week Showing Luxury Brands Earnings Growth Over 20-Years

LUXX is an ETF 

https://www.roundhillinvestments.com/etf/luxx


6. Domino’s Pizza -23.5% from Highs


7. Home Solar Provider SunPower Collapses to $1


8. Record Number of Americans Have $500k in Stocks and $500k in Home Equity

Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, Partner-Apollo Global Management 
The University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment shows that a record-high 30% of the population have stocks worth more than $500,000, and 37% own a home worth more than $500,000, see charts below.   It is remarkable that these wealth gains for the household sector have taken place while the Fed was raising interest rates. The bottom line is that the tailwind to consumer spending for homeowners and equity owners is significant, in particular when combined with record-high cash flows from fixed income.


9. Immigration Update


10. The Seven Health Benefits of Cold Showers

Story by Emily Craig
Ice cold showers are purported to ward off illness, improve mood and help with weight loss© Provided by The Telegraph

There are gentler ways to start the day than with an ice-cold shower, yet the potential health benefits – warding off illness, improving mood and helping with weight loss – could just be enough to make you consider braving the chill.
Prof Mike Tipton, a physiologist at the University of Portsmouth, has spent four decades studying how temperature affects our health. It’s a promising area of new research and, coupled with anecdotal accounts, might persuade you to turn the dial down to cold.
“For the people who say, I feel alive, awake, it sets me up for the day, I’m not going to knock it in any way. But there’s work to be done to figure out the mechanism,” he says. Read on to find out why. 
 
1. Boosts your immune system
One of the most rigorous studies into cold showers involved 3,000 volunteers in the Netherlands turning the water to as cold as possible for the final 30, 60 or 90 seconds of their shower. A control group showered as normal.
After three months, results showed that those who included a cold water blast in their shower had taken 29 per cent fewer sick days – regardless of how long the water was cold for. 
“My particular hypothesis is that the sudden change in skin temperature is driving a lot of the beneficial changes,” says Prof Tipton. “That sudden fall produces the cold shock response – a gasp, hyperventilation and increasing workload in the heart. 
“Because it’s part of a fight or flight response, you’re activating the stress hormones, serotonin goes up and beta endorphins increase,” which contributes to boosting the immune system to ward off illness, he says.
Longer exposure to cold water is, of course, fatal, accounting for 60 per cent of deaths in cold water, Prof Tipton says.
“This is a very double edged sword. A minute in cold water may prime your immune system, five minutes may actually impair it. It’s the dose of cold that’s critical.”

2. Enhances mental health
Exposure to cold water may drastically improve mental health in patients, even when drugs have failed to do so, research suggests.
One study by Prof Tipton and colleagues found that weekly cold-water swimming helped to ease a 24-year-old woman’s depression. She had previously spent seven years battling the condition, during which medication failed to reduce her
“She said that she was the happiest she could remember being. A year later, she was drug-free and open water swimming. She’d overcome a big challenge in her mind,” he says. 
It’s not clear if a cold shower could have the same effect. “It may be the distraction of the cold water [that eased her depression]. When exposed to cold water, most people say all they can think about is the temperature and it takes their mind off everything else,” he says.
However, improvements in her mental health could also be down to the exercise involved in cold water swimming, overcoming the challenge of the cold, or the social inclusion of swimming with others, he noted.
“Is it the cold, or is it any one of these other things? We won’t know until there are studies that isolate cold exposure,” Prof Tipton adds.

3. Improves skin and hair health
Lukewarm water is the ideal for face washing, as it effectively removes dirt, oil and impurities without causing excessive dryness or irritation, explains Dr Anastasia Therianou, a consultant dermatologist on Harley Street and at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust.
However, cold water constricts blood vessels in the skin, which can reduce redness and inflammation – so can improve the appearance of skin, she says.
When it comes to hair, a cold shower can help lock in moisture. “Cold water closes the hair cuticles, so the hydration is ‘trapped’ inside the hair,” Dr Therianou says. “This is beneficial for people with thin hair that tends to break easily. However, cold water cannot fully remove the excessive oils from the scalp so it’s advisable to wash your hair in warm water and then condition and rinse using cold water – if you can bear it.”

4. Supports weight loss
A review of more than 100 studies suggested cold water immersion, such as swimming or a cold bath, can activate and expand brown adipose tissue – a “good” fat that burns calories – and also reduce “bad” white fat, and therefore aid weight loss.
“The brown fat cells develop from white fat cells and, as their energy source, they like free fatty acids which they get from the white fat cells,” explains James Mercer, a professor emeritus at The Arctic University of Norway who co-authored the review. “By reducing the content of free fatty acids in the white fat cells, theoretically, one loses weight.”
However, scientists have not yet investigated whether a cold shower would also trigger this process. “My gut feeling is no, since the development of brown fat in cold water swimmers seems to require a very strong cold stimulus which I do not think you would get from a short cold shower,” says Prof Mercer.
“A cold shower doesn’t provide the same stimulus as being immersed in cold water, as only about a third of the body is exposed to the cold,” says Prof Tipton. “As a result, the cold shock response is roughly about a third of the size it would be in an immersion. That doesn’t mean it’s not big enough to have a positive effect – but nobody’s done the study.”

5. Relieves muscle soreness and accelerates recovery
Athletes frequently turn to ice baths to aid their recovery, the idea being that the cold reduces blood flow, swelling and inflammation of the muscles.
Cold showers could have a similar effect, as the cold water is an analgesic (painkiller) and may be enough to decrease swelling, says Prof Tipton. 
However, he notes that while there is “some evidence” cold water can help muscle aches, the evidence “is not convincing across the board”. For example, some studies suggest that cold water actually lowers protein generation, which is vital for building and repairing muscle.

6. Aids in pain relief and reduces migraines
There’s anecdotal evidence of cold baths and cold water swimming easing very severe migraines, Prof Tipton notes. These accounts suggest short-term exposure to the cold may ease pain, he says.
Cold receptors are located about 0.18mm below the skin surface and, when skin temperature drops quickly, these fire off an enormous amount of information to the central nervous system and the subsequent gasping changes blood flow in the brain, he explains. 
A reduction in pain could be down to a combination of those two things or other factors,” he says.

7. Enhances mood and promotes emotional wellbeing
There’s anecdotal evidence from cold water swimmers that it dramatically improves their mood and wellbeing, says Prof Tipton. “I work with the Bluetits [an outdoor swimming group in Pembrokeshire] and I am overwhelmed by the accounts of people who say it has changed their life. People are in tears about it.
“The vast majority of people who report benefits, say it’s to their mental wellbeing, although the mechanism behind this effect is unclear. The cold water is clearly activating people and waking them up, which will be down to the cold shock response and the release of stress hormones.”
Health risks to consider before having a cold shower

Before stepping into a cold shower, it’s important to consider if you’re in good enough health to do so, says Prof Tipton.
“We’re a tropical animal that wants to be naked in 28C. Taking that animal and showering it with 10 or 12C water is a really stressful thing to do,” he says. 
The cold triggers cold water shock, which is a gasp of breath, followed by rapid breathing and high blood pressure. While this can be beneficial for some over a short time, it will become detrimental to everyone with time, so people should stay in a cold shower for no more than one minute.
It is especially dangerous for people with cardiovascular disease, aneurysms or heart problems and they therefore shouldn’t try it, Prof Tipton says.
Other complications of cold water that could affect anyone include hypothermia and non-freezing cold injury, he warns, is damage to the small nerves and blood vessels of the hands and feets that can last for life. 
Recommended
Cold water therapy: What is it, types and where to start

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/health/other/the-seven-health-benefits-of-cold-showers/ar-BB1qbI0G

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 18 2024

1. Small Cap Volume Eclipsed the QQQ for the First Time Since 2017

Dave Lutz Jones Trading
IWM Volume Yesterday eclipsed QQQ, the first time since 2017 – and Eric B Notes the Record option volume too, and that’s going back to the ’90s


2. Market Leading Sub-Sector Semiconductors -9% from Highs

First test 50day moving average blue line


3. I Have Pointed Out Divergence in Transports vs. QQQ Multiple Times this Year…Bespoke Charts Give Detail

Bespoke- Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with a look at the massive difference in performance between two leading industries: the Dow Transports and the Semiconductors (page 1). We then dive into the latest earnings and the Beige Book (page 2). Next, we recap today’s residential construction data (pages 3 and 4) before pivoting over to the newest update of petroleum stockpiles (page 5). We close out with a recap of the 20 year bond reopening (page 6).
Highest 5-day spread Since 2000

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/the-closer-leading-industry-divergence-residential-construction-7-17-24


4. NVDA 20% of Semiconductor Index

Chart update…NVDA did not make the new high so lower high in place for now…trading right on 50-day


5. Financials ETF XLF New Highs with Fed Rate Cut Projections

XLF has held above 200-day moving average for 2 ½ years testing it 3x  …impressive


6. Schwab Stock Chart Update

SCHW trades quickly back to Feb lows, failed to exceed this year’s previous high.


7. Blackstone Reported Earnings…$1.08 Trillion in Assets

Another sub-sector to watch as rates move lower…Alternative investment leader Blackstone made new highs before reporting today.


8. Public Corporation Balance Sheets in Good Shape

Net interest payments at 20-year lows.


9. Movie Box Office vs. Video Games


10. Read Books….Read Books Out Loud….Advice from Dad for Richest PE Investor in Korea

Interview with Michael Kim -Philadelphia Inquirer by Susan Snyder

And you didn’t speak any English when you first came to the United States? How did you learn it?
My father just said “read books.” That’s how I learned English. That’s how I became an American by reading American novels.
You read the books out loud, right? I was really having trouble with oral language, speaking, and [my father’s] response, of course, was “read out loud.” That’s how I learned to speak English.

One of the richest men in Korea just became Haverford College’s new board chair. Here’s what to know about him.
Michael B. Kim’s book, “Offerings,” took 20 years to write and will be made into a movie.  By Susan Snyder Philadelphia Inquirer

Michael B. Kim, a Haverford College alumnus and incoming board chair, shares details of his time at Haverford and his life as a writer.Courtesy of Haverford College

Michael B. Kim, a Haverford College alumnus and private equity firm leader who has the distinction of being one of the richest people in Korea, became chair of the college’s board of managers on July 1.

While he made his fortune in finance, he spent his time at Haverford as an English major, and over the last two decades wrote his first novel, Offerings, in which the story of the main character, Dae Joon, an investment banker from Seoul who works on Wall Street, closely mirrors his own. That book is now being made into a movie.

In April, Kim, 60, once named “the godfather of Asian private equity,” gave a $25 million gift to Haverford to start a new Institute for Ethical Inquiry & Leadership. He has a current net wealth of $9.7 billion, according to Forbes.

Kim came to the United States with his family from South Korea when he was 11 and grew up in New Jersey. He spent his high school years in Cherry Hill and attended Bishop Eustace High School in Pennsauken before enrolling at Haverford in 1981. He also has an MBA from Harvard. He and his wife, Park Kyung-ah, daughter of the late Park Tae-joon, former prime minister of South Korea, have two children.

The Inquirer sat down with Kim to talk about what drew him to his latest role, including his love of Haverford, books, and the need for ethics missionaries. His answers have been edited for length and clarity.

What were your high school years like?
It was good and bad. … I was the only Asian, certainly the only Korean in every class I went to. But there was some ethnic and cultural diversity. … I felt like it was a connected society in South Jersey, and that made it an interesting place to spend the latter part of my formative years. … I wouldn’t have been conscious of this at the time, but I think I was probably the classic nerd. Or I would have been if it weren’t for my Taekwondo [ability] as a black belt.

How did you end up choosing Haverford?
The liberal arts courses and the Duck Pond [along College Lane] drew me to Haverford. … I just kind of felt at home. I was an English major there because of my love of books.

Why did you join the college’s board of managers?
Because I’m a Haverfordian. You get called to service, you answer the call.

As the new chair, what are your priorities for the college?
A renewed focus on our core mission, which is … academic excellence. That is an easy thing to say and even aspire to, a more difficult thing to procure and also maintain. … What that means to me is hiring the best faculty and getting the best students and distinguishing the Haverford academic experience from so many other good liberal arts colleges.

So you want to increase Haverford’s prominence?
Not prominence. … Not necessarily getting to a higher ranking in (U.S. News & World Report) rankings, but just making sure we really are getting the best students. You can tell from our admissions stats that we’ve fallen behind a little bit, so kind of a return to glory. What that means is we need to really be committed to delivering the best education. That requires resources. …
Our endowment, [$643 million], is much smaller than some of our peers’. … So this would be the second priority … [securing more financial resources to carry out the strategic plan].
The third goal would be to continue to nurture the special values-based community that I think really is a distinguishing feature of Haverford College. That’s where the Institute for Ethical Inquiry & Leadership comes in.

Tell me why ethical leadership is important to you?
Leadership without ethics is a body without a soul. And look around, there are a lot of soulless leaders, not just in America but around the world. My hope is that with the renewed focus on ethics … we can enrich ourselves as a society.
It’s even more important, given all the turmoil in the world including on our college campuses. …
My wish is for Haverford to be known for as the leader in ethics education, much in the way Middlebury is for languages and for the Institute to train and send out ethics missionaries to the world.

Was the institute your idea?
Yes. Wendy Raymond, the president, it kind of germinated with her and she gave a lot of thought on how we flush out an institute … what we should aspire to do and the curriculum, in particular. It was her idea to make it across academic disciplines. My idea was to make it a little more expansive, to have a global reach.

At many college campuses, including Haverford, pro-Palestinian encampments were erected last spring, which caused some tension. How should colleges handle these?
I’m a free-speech advocate. I think the more speech, the better. … My father used to say protests are the flowers of democracy. That has meaning if you consider our own country, Korea. … Until the late ‘80s. we were ruled by a succession of generals in an autocratic system. The way we destroyed that system and became a liberal democracy is through student protest.
So I believe in the power of protests.
The trick or the challenge of negotiating the current situation is where do we draw the line to hate speech, … Hate speech, whether it’s antisemitism, Islamophobia or any other form of hate speech, you have to discourage. … That’s where I draw the line.
But it’s a really tough line to draw.

What motivated you to write your book?
I always felt I had a book to get out. We didn’t talk about my aspirations as a college student. But I’m the accidental banker, accidental finance guy. I wanted to be an academic, to teach or to be a writer, which I considered noble callings.
I figured out pretty early on in my investment banking career that this was the quickest way for me to get to a level of having success and be able to make an impact on society by giving back. … Throughout this journey, I felt compelled to get this book out.
The book took me almost 20 years to write … because of my day job. … The perspective changes as you go from a 30-some-year-old to a 50-some-year-old. I looked back on my original writing and I couldn’t really recognize the young man who seemed so angry at the injustices of the world.
I wanted to be true to the evolving perspective and the different voices I had in my protagonist.

And it’s going to be made into a movie?
Yes … by this great production company called Anonymous Content. You must have seen the movie Spotlight. They are the producers of Spotlight, along with The Revenant and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.
We are going to start shooting in the fall.

You have two sons?
They are both in their 20s. The first went to Haverford, majoring in political science … He is now an artist/fashion designer based in New York. My second son graduated from the University of Chicago. … He is going on to get his master’s in data science.

What is your favorite vacation spot?
We have a house in the Hamptons. … That’s where I go with my family to get some peace and rest (reminiscent of the poem “The Lake Isle of Innisfree,” by William Butler Yeats, he said).
The key line is, “And I shall have some peace there, for peace comes dropping slow.” I first came across this poem in college.
The image I got in my head as a 50-year-old was there’s so much stress in my life as there is in many people’s lives, particularly in my job. … So you are continually seeking peace. … Peace comes in drops. The image I got [is like when] you go to the hospital and get hooked up to an IV. You see the little drops of liquid coming drop by drop. I think that’s how peace comes.
Your job is … to just hold out your hands in Asian style and accept the drops of peace when it comes.

Now for some quick hits:
Favorite book? Too many to mention. But I will say literature starts and ends with William Shakespeare.
Favorite sports team? New York Yankees.
What gets you out of bed in the morning? I think it’s really life. That old Wordsworth line: “Bliss was in that dawn to be alive.” I feel really fortunate to be alive, and doing what I do with the family that I have.
What is your motto to live by? Be grateful. Be humble. Be seated.

https://www.inquirer.com/education/haverford-college-michael-kim-movie-board-chair-20240711.html#:~:text=Michael%20B.%20Kim%2C%20a%20Haverford%20College%20alumnus%20and%20private%20equity,of%20managers%20on%20July%201

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 17 2024

1. September 100% Probability of Rate Cut-CME Group

https://www.cmegroup.com/company/about-us.html


2. Equal Weight S&P-RSP New Highs


3. Equal Weight QQQ Breaks Out to New Highs


4. Everyone’s Favorite Chart of Year Small Cap Breaks Out to New Highs….Druck Went Size with Options on Small Cap

Small Caps 40-year record spread in performance vs. S&P

One-Month +11%


5. Lagging Healthcare Sector Making New Highs


6. Gold New Highs


7. KRE Regional Banks +18% One-Month


8. Emerging Markets Ex-China Breaking Out


9. Homebuilders Breakout


10. 5 Qualities of the Wisest People

They make the best of bad situations. Eric M. Brown PhD
KEY POINTS

  • Wisdom is the key to living fulfilled lives in an increasingly complex world.
  • Being able to identify the wise in our social circles can greatly increase our chances of success in all areas of our life.
  • Knowing what wisdom looks like can help us make the best of less-than-desirable situations.

For those who are privileged enough, we are increasingly living in a society where we can make choices and pursue lifestyles that our grandparents would not have considered possible. Three generations ago, we were generally expected to remain living in the area in which we grew up and choose from among a few dozen careers or jobs, and our romantic prospects were limited to our immediate social circles.
Now we encourage each other to construct our lives from scratch, by following our dreams wherever they may lead us. As wonderful as this new freedom is, it also places a burden on each of us to make myriad choices and take sole responsibility for the lives we have constructed. The ability to make wise decisions may be more crucial now than ever.
Defining Wisdom
Knowing what wisdom entails and identifying who is wise may help us to live our lives in a way that is fulfilling and meaningful. For thousands of years, the discourse around wisdom has been centered on the study of philosophy and religion. But, over the past 20 years, psychologists have begun to research and define wisdom in ways that provide a picture of what a wise person looks like while providing descriptions of how they operate in the world.
Wisdom is often defined as the ability to make sound decisions and to act or advise others to behave in ways that are more likely to bring about desired outcomes. Some scholars have described wisdom as a form of practical intelligence. I’m drawn to the thought that wisdom is knowing the right thing to do, in the right way, at the right time, in the right context. If any one of these four elements is off, then a decision or action will not prove to be wise. Given the complexity of our world, it may greatly benefit us to be able to identify who is wise and how to act wisely.
Following are five attributes or abilities of wise persons:

  1. They self-regulate. Wise persons are able to regulate their emotions so that they are able to think clearly about what decisions and actions may bring about a positive outcome, and, yet, emotions are not the enemy of wisdom. If a decision will entail strong emotions, a wise person must be able to feel the weight of a situation in order to account for how a particular decision may affect themselves, another person, or other parties.
  2. They are virtuous. From philosophers such as Aristotle to the most recent psychologists who research wisdom, it is firmly believed that wise persons are virtuous people in that they act, make decisions, and counsel others in ways that are mindful of the well-being of all who are involved. A person who is highly intelligent or savvy may know how to get what they want, but, if they do so at the expense of others, they are not considered wise. Wise persons know that individuals tend to thrive in relationships in which everyone flourishes.
  3. They see and recognize patterns. Psychologists who study wisdom tend to agree that those who are older are not necessarily wiser, but to be wise one must have enough experience to glean from to discern how and when to apply knowledge and past experiences to new situations. There is a certain degree of intelligence needed to be able to (a) recognize ways that a present situation may have elements that resemble past occurrences; (b) consider the present situation and discern what, if any, previous knowledge or experiences may apply; and (c) discern how one may apply past learnings to what is unknown. Wise persons can recognize patterns while appreciating the uniqueness of the new circumstance.
  4. They navigate environments well. Robert Sternberg, a psychology professor at Cornell University, has written that one attribute of wise persons is their ability to decide between three possible responses to one’s environment when a person is not pleased with their given situation. A person can (a) simply adjust or adapt to their context, (b) seek to shape their situation, or (c) seek a new environment altogether. Most people will try to do a combination of the first two before moving to the third option. Wisdom is needed to discern whether a person can adjust or adapt without too much personal cost to themselves. One must also consider whether a person has the ability (e.g., influence or power) to bring about the desired change. If a person needs to choose a new environment, they will need wisdom to not move into another equally unsatisfying or worse situation.
  5. They make the best of bad situations. Most people have lived long enough to know that sometimes we are not able to get anywhere near the outcome we desire. There are many factors in the world we do not have control over, so there are times when we simply lose. But wise people know that the way we weather deep disappointment has a significant impact on the persons we become. Furthermore, they know that there may be actions we can take, or refrain from taking, that will lessen the negative and long-term impact of an undesirable outcome. Wise persons make the best of less-than-ideal situations.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/healing-within/202207/5-qualities-the-wisest-people

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 16 2024

1. Last Week’s One-Day Small Cap Move was 6 Standard Deviation Event


2. One of the Issues for Small Cap is Shrinking Pool of Names….More Mutual Funds than Stocks

WSJ By Spencer Jakab

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/where-have-all-the-good-stocks-gone-8e8fbb79?mod=itp_wsj


3. Alphabet Acquisition of WIZ is 2X any Prior Deals


4. Annualized S&P Gains Based on CPI Inflation Numbers

Schwab


5. Weekly Crypto Asset Flows

From DC Lite Substack  Crypto asset flows. Bitcoin saw the 5th largest weekly inflows ever (+$1.35bn). YTD inflows to crypto assets total a record $17.8bn.

CoinShares


6. Sales of Homes in Manhattan All Cash

NYT By Ronda Kaysen and Ella Koeze

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/06/upshot/manhattan-real-estate-cash.html


7. Mortgage Applications Update

The United States: Mortgage applications remained at multi-year lows last week.

Source: The Daily Shot https://dailyshotbrief.com/


8. U.S. States with Shrinking Populations

From ZeroHedge blog www.zerohedge.com


9. Young People Are Flocking to the Republican Party

By Darragh Roche
Young people appear to be flocking to the Republican Party, according to the figures in a new poll from the Pew Research Center that surveyed Americans’ party affiliation.
The National Public Opinion Reference Survey (NPORS) published by Pew Research on Tuesday has drawn significant attention from analysts because it shows the GOP leading among those under 30.
There are just four months until the presidential election where former President Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, is hoping to defeat President Joe Biden, the Democratic candidate.
 
Former U.S. President Donald Trump gestures to the crowd before delivering the keynote address at the Faith & Freedom Coalition’s Road to Majority Policy Conference at the Washington Hilton on June 22, 2024 in Washington,… More SAMUEL CORUM/GETTY IMAGES
The NPORS found that, among all respondents, 47 percent said they were Republican or leaned Republican, while 46 percent said they were Democrats or leaned toward the Democrats.
The poll was conducted from February 1 to June 10 among 5,626 U.S. adults.st
Analyts were quick to point to the detailed figures regarding party affiliation among young people.
“By subgroup, the headline is age,” The New York Times’ chief political analyst Nate Cohn wrote on X, formerly Twitter.
“NPORS found the GOP ahead on leaned party ID among 18 to 29 year olds, even though the sample was Biden+20 on 2020 recall vote. The sample size is fairly large (n=496) and it hasn’t shown anything like this in previous cycles,” Cohn added.
In an earlier post, Cohn said: “NPORS found leaned party identification at R+1. That’s the first time NPORS gives the GOP a party ID edge. Last year, it was D+2.
That’s significant in its own right, given the quality of the survey. But it will effect other polls — like that Ipsos poll that recently showed Trump/Biden tied.”
Newsweek has reached out to the Republican National Committee (RNC) for comment.
Matt Blackwell, a political scientist at Harvard who researches statistical methodology and U.S. politics, also drew attention to the figures for young people who are registered voters.
“Uhhhhh…. one odd tidbit from the Pew NPORS: respondents under 26 that are registered to vote are almost R +30,” Blackwell wrote on X. He shared a screenshot of the polling showing that the GOP led with 63.8 percent to Democrats’ 34.3 percent among registered voters under 26.
Blackwell added in a subsequent post: “Sorry, was dropping non-responses to the gender question with those back in it’s only R +26.”
He shared a screenshot of figures showing Republicans on 62.2 percent support compared to 36 percent for the Democrats.
Sharing the unweighted numbers from the poll, Blackwell said: “Maybe just sampling noise? MoE [margin of error] for each one is ±8 or so.”
“To match @Nate_Cohn’s age bracket of 18-29, here’s the breakdown for them. R +7 among the registered voters,” Blackwell wrote in another X post.
G. Elliott Morris, editorial director of data analytics at ABC News and FiveThirtyEight, wrote on X the results could be caused by “sample noise” but added that there are other explanations.
Morris said that one of the possibilities was that “we’re seeing a historic realignment among young voters, to the point where they are as GOP as the silent gen and white evangelical Christians.”
Morris added another possibility: “Selection into taking a poll is correlated with some unmeasured very political variable that’s throwing off most to all polls right now, even literally the best in the industry, and will cause havoc on Election Day (on the level of 2020, 2016, 1980, 1960, 1952, 1948).”

Young People Are Flocking to the Republican Party – Newsweek


10. 2,500 Years Ago, the Ancient Greeks Believed Every Great Speech Must Contain 3 Elements. It’s Still True Today

The ancient Greeks’ approach to public speaking has withstood the test of time and is still the secret of persuasion today.
EXPERT OPINION BY JESSICA STILLMAN, CONTRIBUTOR, INC.COM @ENTRYLEVELREBEL
If you’re looking for advice on how to become a great public speaker, there are plenty of people you can go to. Speaking coachesVCsHollywood directorsjazz musicians, and MIT professors have all offered worthy tips and suggestions.
But perhaps the most compelling advice of all comes from the most unlikely source — ancient Greek philosophers. Before you groan and click away, hear me out.
Much has changed in the 2,500 or so years since Aristotle and Plato were walking around an agora discussing their ideas. Our lifestyles, tech, and understanding of the world are wildly different. But human beings themselves haven’t changed much.
Evolution is slow. Our brains are basically wired the same way then as now. And what worked in ancient Athens — before speakers had the advantage of fancy slides and eye-catching graphics — will almost certainly work now. Plus, these ideas have withstood millennia. They must be pretty worthwhile.
You could, of course, take whole college courses on what the Greeks had to say about what they called rhetoric and what most modern entrepreneurs would call delivering a great speech or presentation. But for time-pressed professionals, let’s start with the fundamentals. Ancient Greek thinkers taught that every convincing speech should contain three essential elements.
1. Ethos
Ethos is the ancient Greek word for character. Aristotle taught that speakers must establish their ethos — their character, credibility, or authority to speak on a subject — for their words to persuade anyone. Without this essential first ingredient, even the most clever and well-worded arguments will fall flat.
“Your audience needs to know (or to believe, which in rhetoric adds up to the same thing) that you are trustworthy, that you have a locus standi to talk on the subject, and that you speak in good faith. You need your audience to believe that you are, in the well-known words, ‘A pretty straight kind of guy,’ ” journalist Sam Leith explained in his book on great rhetoric through the ages, Words Like Loaded Pistols.
How do you establish this good standing with the audience? “No one likes a bragger or a name-dropper. But underselling yourself can be just as damaging to your chances of making an impact with your presentation,” warns Big Think’s Kris Flegg. “Often, the right balance can be struck with case studies and examples.”
You might mention people or companies you’ve worked with to use social proof to establish your credentials. Academics might mention their university or affiliations. Hard numbers help too. “It’s much easier to tell an audience that you’ve been coaching for 15 years than it is to tell them that you’re the best coach around,” Flegg points out.
The idea isn’t to toot your horn to enjoy the sweet sound of self-praise. It’s to foster your audience’s basic trust that you have the knowledge and character to talk about whatever it is you’re going to talk about.
2. Logos
OK, now your audience trusts you. What are you going to tell them? Logos is the content of your speech — the actual ideas you’re trying to get across and the way you link them together. And when it came to how to do this, Aristotle agreed with contemporary writing teachers: “Show, don’t tell.”
“Aristotle had a tip here: He found that the most effective use of logos is to encourage your audience to reach the conclusion to your argument on their own, just moments before your big reveal. They will relish in the fact that they were clever enough to figure it out, and the reveal will be that much more satisfying,” explains the Farnam Street blog.
By using evidence, anecdotes, and solid logic to lead your audience to the conclusions you want them to draw, you enlist them in your speech. That’s both more entertaining and more persuasive than just flat out telling them what they should think.
3. Pathos
So far, so logical. But as you may have observed, humans are not 100 percent logical creatures. Far from it. So according to Aristotle and other ancient Greek thinkers, a truly great speech must not just have a credible speaker making logically sound arguments. It must also have pathos, or emotion.
Offering statistics about your topic is one thing. Sharing a moving story about how your product or idea impacted an individual is an appeal to pathos. So is invoking the audience’s feelings of empathy, anger, frustration, or even patriotism or duty. You might even display a little well-timed emotion yourself.
The idea is to make your audience feel, not just think. But you don’t want to overdo it.
“In order to work, pathos needs to be used sparingly, where it has the strongest impact, and in a way that feels natural. If forced, pathos can have the opposite effect, making people distance themselves to avoid the awkwardness of your emotional outpouring,” warns neuroscientist and Ness Labs founder Anne-Laure Le Cunff in her own deep-dive post on the ancient Greek approach to persuasion.
Put these three elements together, and you had a recipe for true persuasion 2,500 years ago — and you have the recipe for it now.

2,500 Years Ago, the Ancient Greeks Believed Every Great Speech Must Contain 3 Elements. It’s Still True Today | Inc.com

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 15 2024

1. First Decrease in Inflation in 4 Years


2. Inflation by Sub-Sectors

First 2 chart today from Spilled Coffee Blog
https://www.spilledcoffee.co/


3. Equal Weight Outperformance Thursday was Third-Best Ever

Still on long way to go vs cap weight.

Bespoke https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/the-closer-cpi-sparks-epic-rotation-7-11-24


4. French Luxury Companies 30-Year Earnings Growth as Strong as Tech


5. From Market Ear-NVDA Stat

Market Ear “Since Start of 2023, 97% of NVDA returns have been driven by greater earnings vs 3% from valuation expansion.  However, year to date, NVDA NTM/PE Ratio has increased from 25x to 42X, accounting for 56% of the 165% YTD return.”

https://themarketear.com/newsfeed


6. Tech Companies Went from 5% of S&P Capex Spending to 25%

Capital Group

AI fever: Has it gotten too hot? | Capital Group


7. New World Order Semiconductors vs. Transports

Historically, Bulls did not happen without transports stocks.  Below is semiconductors vs. transports:


8. China 60% of World Steel Market

https://www.barrons.com/articles/biden-trump-steel-tariffs-c44f4279?mod=past_editions


9. World Billionaires

WSJ By Tripti Lahiri

https://www.wsj.com/world/india/100-million-wedding-puts-crazy-rich-indians-in-spotlight-604fc704


10. Are These Bad Habits Ruining Your Brain?

3 simple ways to build a better brain at any age. Melissa Burkley Ph.D.

KEY POINTS

  • Sleep, exercise, and a healthy diet all contribute to brain health—as do these underappreciated tips.
  • Avoid sensory overload and focus on one task at a time for peak performance.
  • Prioritize spending time with people face-to-face. 
  • Hearing loss is associated with dementia. Protect your hearing by wearing earplugs around loud noise.

We live in an era where people are increasingly concerned about protecting their brain health. Unfortunately, we also live in an era where our technology and daily habits are rewiring our brains in unhealthy ways. Experts agree that the modern lifestyle poses a serious risk to our gray matter, chipping away at our neurons and making our brains slower, less creative, and less productive.
If we want to preserve our brains, now and for years to come, we are going to have to tweak our lifestyle. You probably already know that poor sleep, poor diet, and poor exercise put your brain at risk, so I’m not going to repeat those here. Instead, let’s examine some often overlooked habits that threaten your brain health and identify some simple fixes.

1. Avoid Sensory Overload
Think about the sheer number of information bites your brain has to juggle in a typical day. Now compare that number to what your parents had to deal with when they were your age.
We are living in a golden age of sensory overload. Emails, texts, Twitter feeds, Instagram, 24-hour news, 24-hour streaming, 24-hour everything! This constant stream of information means our brains rarely get a chance to process something before five other things are on its heels.
“No problem,” you might say, “I’m great at multitasking.” But you are wrong. Research has shown time and again that despite what people claim, multitasking always leads to poorer performance. Even worse, it dulls the brain. According to a study conducted at Gresham College, just having an email sitting unread in your inbox while you try to concentrate on a task can damage your problem-solving performance by an equivalent of 10 IQ points.
As MIT neuroscience Earl Miller explains, the human brain is “not wired to multitask well… When people think they’re multitasking, they’re actually just switching from one task to another very rapidly. And every time they do, there’s a cognitive cost in doing so.”
We think we are expert jugglers, keeping all of the balls churning in the air. But really, we are more like a novice who can only keep one ball going at a time. When our attention is focused on one ball, all the others come crashing down.
Once you accept that efficient multitasking is a myth, you can better identify ways to protect your precious brain energy. Be mindful of how you consume media throughout the day. Instead of checking your emails at all times of the day, consider relegating this task to a few time slots (for example, once in the morning and once in the afternoon). And look for creative ways to guard your brain against unnecessary information, especially during times when you want peak brain performance. For example, consider using apps that limit your most tempting distractions during designated hours.

2. Too Much FaceTime, Not Enough Face Time
Face-to-face interactions were already on the decline when the pandemic hit, and lockdown only made this trend worse. Before the pandemic, the average American adult spent 17 hours a day glued to a screen, be it a TV (4.5 hours), computer (5 hours), or gaming system (3 hours). That adds up to 6,259 hours a year, which constitutes an average of 44 years of your life staring at a screen!
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Digital tools are quickly replacing physical interaction, and while this makes remote work easier, it isn’t benefiting our brains. Human brains are hard-wired for social, face-to-face interactions. Social interactions encourage neuronal growth and give our brains opportunities to forge new connections. One University of Michigan study found that just 10 minutes of daily face-to-face conversation led to marked improvements in cognitive performance and memory. Social interaction also decreases loneliness and depression, both of which threaten brain health.
Look for ways to unplug from your electronics and include doses of social interaction throughout the day. Have a regularly scheduled sit-down dinner with your family and ban all phones from the table. Take regular walks with loved ones, which allows you to get two brain boosts in one: social connection and exercise. While the pandemic continues, join a social group online and once lockdown is over, make this activity face-to-face.

3. Protect Your Hearing
People often overlook how the brain’s next-door neighbors, the ears, play a vital role in cognitive health. But if you think about it, hearing is one of the most important ways your brain receives information from the external world. Anything that makes that information more difficult to process means your brain has to work extra hard to complete its task. No wonder then that hearing loss in older adults is associated with having less gray matter and a greater likelihood of dementia.
Sadly, hearing problems are on the rise. One in four American adults now shows signs of noise-induced hearing loss, making it the third most common chronic health condition (just after diabetes and cancer). We talk a lot about protecting our health by wearing sunscreen, using condoms, eating healthy, and exercising, but rarely do we discuss protecting our hearing.
The government isn’t doing much to regulate noise pollution these days and hopefully, that will change, but in the meantime, here are a few things you can do:

  • Wearing ear protection while mowing your lawn or using other high-decibel machinery
  • Wear earplugs at concerts
  • Wear noise-canceling headphones on airplanes
  • Keep the volume on all your electronic equipment to a minimum (Tip: If you can hold your headphones an arm’s length and still hear the music, your volume is too high)
  • Embrace the joy of silence and schedule noise-free breaks throughout the day

For more quick tips on how to boost your brain health, check out my earlier article. Looking for an even deeper dive into this topic? Check out Dr. Sanjay Gupta’s excellent bookKeep Sharp: Build a Better Brain at Any Age.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-social-thinker/202103/are-these-bad-habits-ruining-your-brain