Macro conditions. “The overall equity movement is perceived as occurring in one of the most favorable macro environments, characterized by a depreciating dollar, narrowing credit spreads, subdued inflation, and interest rates remaining below 4.5%.”
2. Last Week Top 10 Showed the 50day Crossing thru 200day to Upside…History of Bullish Signal
@Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm) Golden Cross — more history: And here’s some more history and stats on the Golden Cross… one thing to note from this is that there are a couple of exceptions to its positive performance, and mileage does vary even when it correctly flags upside, and of course you do see more variation in short-term vs longer-term returns subsequent to the signal activating.
Subu Trade
3. 1st Half Recap-All Asset Classes
Spilled Coffee: At the half way point of the year, platinum, soybean oil and gold lead the returns. Orange juice and cocoa have had a rough 2025.
Mike Zaccardi
4. Inflows Stopped from Foreign Investors…Keep in Mind Pre-Election International Retail was Max-US Stocks
DB noted, the buyer strike on US assets continues. April TIC data doesn’t disprove de-dollarization―foreigners don’t need to sell US assets to weaken the dollar, only to stop buying. High-frequency flow data and ETF/EPFR databases show almost no foreign buying of US bonds or equities in recent months. Domestic investors may be driving the rally, but foreigners remain on the sidelines.
Zachary Goldberg Jefferies
5. We Know U.S. Stocks Have Record Spread vs. Emerging Markets…But Developed International vs. Emerging Close to Record Spread As Well
Topdown Charts
6. Growth Stocks Back in Lead….Berkshire Breaks 200day to Downside
StockCharts
7. Five-Year Jump in U.S. Electricity Consumption
WSJ
8. Supreme Court-Last 2 Years…42% of Rulings Unanimous and only 9% of Cases were Ideological 6-3 Split
WSJ
9. Far Fewer Teens are Drinking Alcohol
Sherwood
10. Myths and Facts About Dopamine
Psychology Today: Here’s Lerner, in her own words, on various myths about dopamine.
5 Myths About Dopamine
Myth #1: Dopamine equals pleasure.
False. While dopamine is often released when something pleasurable happens, its biggest role is in reinforcement learning—helping us learn from behaviors or cues that predict outcomes. Pleasure is not a necessary feature of this learning process.
Myth #2: More dopamine, more happiness.
False. Since low levels of dopamine are associated with depression, people might conclude that higher dopamine levels will lead to happiness. And dopamine does play a role in motivation, which could be related to happiness.
But there’s a difference between the motivation to pursue a reward and the actual happiness you derive from receiving the reward. Dopamine is about the motivation to pursue rewards. It’s not the happiness of it—it’s the willingness and the drive to engage in things that might bring that feeling.
Myth #3: Scrolling is rewarding because it produces dopamine.
Not exactly. Dopamine does different things across different brain circuits. When scrolling for the next interesting post or the next “like,” dopamine helps detect reward prediction errors—the moments when something unexpectedly good could happen.
Social media acts like a slot machine, where uncertainty and surprise engage the dopamine system. Because dopamine reinforces behavior, you want to do it again. You think that your scrolling caused the unexpected reward, which motivates you to re-engage in that behavior.
Dopamine is about that surprise and motivation, especially from behaviors that involve uncertainty about what reward you’ll find. We obviously feel the burst of pleasure, but other neurotransmitters (serotonin and norepinephrine) are also responsible for it.
Myth #4: A dopamine detox can be beneficial.
It’s complicated. “Dopamine detox” refers to the idea that temporarily refraining from daily pleasures can reset the brain’s reward sensitivity, reduce our dependence on instant gratification, and ultimately, help us lead happier lives.
In a way, it’s a strategy for managing hedonic adaptation—our tendency to get used to things over time. Repeating the same behaviors can lose their novelty and excitement. If I eat ice cream every day, I might feel more upset if I don’t get it than truly happy when I do. But if I only rarely eat ice cream, it will feel like a special treat, and I’ll be genuinely excited to get it. Refraining from routine pleasures can help us appreciate them.
The myth comes from blaming all of this on dopamine—it’s misleading from a neuroscientific perspective. A more accurate term could be “pleasure detox.” In addition, “dopamine detox” makes it sound like we want to make dopamine go away, which is nonsense.
Myth #5: We can hack the dopamine system.
True. By understanding how dopamine shapes learning and behavior, we could design strategies to train both good and bad habits.
For example, slot machines aren’t inherently interesting; you’re just pulling a lever over and over again. But with just the right level of unpredictability, lights and sounds, and the occasional rewards of winning, slot machines are engineered to keep you engaged.
Similarly, to sustain motivation when developing new habits, try incorporating elements of surprise and novelty. Instead of forcing yourself to do something, keep it engaging enough to want to repeat it. Even when doing the same routine, like going on a daily walk, pay attention to the little surprises. Whether it’s the weather, your mood, or the sounds, there’s always something new to notice. As the Greek philosopher Heraclitus said 2,000 years ago, “You cannot step into the same river twice.” It’s all about how we engage with our experiences.
10 Facts About Dopamine
Dopamine is ancient. Its function as a neurotransmitter has been conserved through evolution across various species, from worms to humans.
Compared to the overall size of the human brain, the number of dopamine neurons is relatively small (only about 400,000 to 600,000 out of around 86 billion).
Dopamine neurons are among the largest and most connected cells in the brain. They are mostly located in the midbrain—the ventral tegmental area and the substantia nigra. In rats, a single dopamine neuron can send out electrical signal branches (axonal arborizations) that are 1 meter in length and form 30 thousand synapses. In humans, this number can reach hundreds of thousands.
Listening to music can activate the brain’s dopaminergic reward system. Expectation and anticipation are key to the pleasure we experience from music.
Dysfunctions in dopamine transmission are a feature of various mental, psychiatric, and neurological disorders, including depression, Parkinson’s, ADHD, and substance use disorders.
Many medications work by altering or stimulating dopamine receptor activity, its synthesis, and reuptake.
Dopamine rarely acts alone. Whenever dopamine is released into the brain, other neurotransmitters, like glutamate and GABA, are likely being co-released by dopamine neurons. This concept is referred to as dopamine’s “multilingual” nature.
Dopamine transmission can occur at different speeds. Fast transmission happens when dopamine neurons fire in bursts. Dopamine neurons also fire steadily, like a clock. This tonic firing maintains a baseline level of dopamine on top of which bursts can be layered in response to important or unexpected events, explains Lerner.
Dopamine levels follow a circadian rhythm—we have higher dopamine levels when we are awake, and lower during sleep.
Both the amount of dopamine present and its timing are important for when brain plasticity can occur and learning can take place. “Dopamine acts as a dynamic signal to time brain plasticity,” says Lerner.
Dopamine and the Good Life
Dopamine, undoubtedly, plays a central role in a good life. But perhaps not merely in ways we imagine. “Dopamine isn’t good or bad,” notes Lerner. “It trains you to do what you’re trying to do.”
Let’s say you are trying to infuse your days with joy and meaning, connection and purpose. By paying attention to the small pleasures and the unexpected rewards on our journeys, dopamine supports us throughout the pursuit of our goals, not just at the bright lights of the finish line. It’s what makes a lifelong adventure of learning and discovery possible.
2. Investor Rotation Out of Winners to Start the Month
Bespoke Investments-The chart below highlights a sharp reversal in investor behavior so far this month, with a clear rotation out of the first-half winners and into the biggest losers. Looking at average month-to-date returns for Russell 1,000 stocks, the 20 best-performing names from the first half are down an average of 2.05%, while the top 50 and 100 from the first half are also in negative territory this month. In contrast, the worst performers from the first half are seeing a surge in buying interest: the 20 worst names are up an average of 5.41% MTD, followed by the 50 worst at 4.76%, and the 100 worst at 4.17%. This pattern reflects classic mean reversion trading, where investors rotate into beaten-down names in hopes of a rebound, while locking in profits on stocks that have already had big runs. It also suggests that investors are bottom-fishing in laggards in search for value or speculative bounce plays. Whether this is a short-term rebalancing or the start of a more sustained shift in market leadership remains to be seen, but it’s interesting that we saw similar pullbacks in first-half market leaders in July 2023 and July 2024 as well.
Bespoke
3. JOBY Electric Flying Taxis–$8B Market Cap
The Irrelevant Investor
4. Banks Lending to Private Lenders that Lend to Businesses????
Credit: Loans from US commercial banks to non-bank financial institutions have more than doubled since 2020, now exceeding $1.25 trillion. This sharp rise underscores the deepening entanglement between traditional banks and shadow banking, amplifying systemic risk.
Russia’s Investigative Committee says former Russian transport minister Roman Starovoit has been found dead, apparently with a self-inflicted gunshot wound.
He was dismissed earlier on Monday by President Vladimir Putin.
No reason for Starovoit’s dismissal was given and deputy transport minister Andrei Nikitin was announced as his replacement shortly after.
The Investigative Committee said it was working to establish the circumstances of the incident.
Starovoit was appointed minister of transport in May 2024.
Before that, Starovoit had served as governor of the Kursk region for almost six years, until he became the transport minister.
The region was partly seized by Ukrainian troops in August last year in a surprise offensive. Moscow only recently managed to drive out the Ukrainian forces, although in late June, Kyiv said that it was still holding a small area of territory inside Russia.
Starovoit’s successor, Aleksey Smirnov, was only in post for a short while. He was arrested in April and was later accused of embezzling funds that had been allocated for the building of fortifications on the border with Ukraine.
According to Russian outlet Kommersant, Starovoit was about to be brought in as a defendant in the same case.
It is unclear when, exactly, he died.
The head of the State Duma Defence Committee, Andrei Kartapolov, told Russian outlet RTVI that his death occurred “quite a while ago”.
Earlier on Monday, before Starovoit’s death was announced, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was pressed by reporters on whether the dismissal meant Putin had lost trust in Starovoit over the events in Kursk.
“A loss of trust is mentioned if there is a loss of trust. Such wording was not used [in the Kremlin decree],” Peskov replied.
10. Match Your Exercise to Personality
If your exercise routine has hit a summer slump, it may be because your workouts aren’t suited to your personality, new research suggests.
Personality traits can influence which physical activities people enjoy, as well as how often and how much benefit they get from exercise, according to a study published Tuesday in the journal Frontiers in Psychology.
About 31% of adults fall short of the recommended 150 minutes of moderately intense physical activity per week, highlighting the need for tailored exercise programs to get people motivated, scientists at University College London said.
“Understanding personality factors in designing and recommending physical activity programs is likely to be very important in determining how successful a program is, and whether people will stick with it and become fitter,” senior author Paul Burgess, a professor at the UCL Institute of Cognitive Neuroscience, said in a news release.
The researchers recruited 132 adults, who underwent baseline fitness testing before they were split into two groups.
For eight weeks, one group was asked to follow a home fitness regimen that included strength training and cycling workouts of varying intensity. Those in the control group were provided with stretching exercises but otherwise continued their typical lifestyles.
It’s expected that introverts would gravitate toward solo workouts and extroverts would shine in group fitness classes, but the study showed some surprises.
To participate, the volunteers filled out questionnaires that measured the so-called Big Five personality traits:
The more extroverted participants did enjoy high-intensity interval training (HIIT) workouts and aerobic fitness lab testing.
However, people who scored high on extraversion were less likely to complete follow-up testing, so only 86 participants overall completed the study. In addition, extroverts didn’t have greater fitness improvements.
“Extroverts often prefer team sports or group fitness classes, and they get energy from fellow exercisers,” Dr. Blaise Aguirre, a child and adolescent psychiatrist at McLean Hospital in Arlington, Massachusetts, said in an email. “On the other hand, others who are more conscientious would be drawn to structured, schedule-based activities — say, a specific class at a gym where a specific and predictable routine is followed — and this is because this fits their organized, goal-oriented nature.”
People who scored higher on neuroticism — that is, a tendency to be moody or anxious — liked low-intensity exercise sessions at home as opposed to being supervised in the lab. They were also less likely to self-monitor their heart rates.
“People who are very anxious might avoid challenging forms of exercise or ones that involve others for fear of embarrassment, and because of this gravitate toward solo or less intense activities,” wrote Aguirre, who wasn’t involved in the study.
An important finding for people with anxiety: Participants with high neuroticism in the exercise group were the only ones who showed decreased stress, the authors noted.
At baseline, the participants who were more conscientious demonstrated better physical fitness and worked out more hours per week. That trait wasn’t a predictor of how much someone enjoyed exercising, though.
Participants who scored high in openness were less likely to enjoy the HIIT workouts and threshold rides — or cycling to boost aerobic power — which involved varying intensities. But they were likelier to complete follow-up testing.
People who are high in openness might be willing to experiment and seek out novel or varied routines, Aguirre said in email. “For instance, if they typically go to the gym and like to jog, they may be open to trying dance, hiking or some new fitness trends.”
The trait of agreeableness predicted more enjoyment of an “easy, long” bike ride, the study found.
Which workouts work for my personality?
The link between personality and physical activity goes both ways, Aguirre said.
“In as much as your personality shapes your exercise routine, exercise can shape personality in return, in that it can also help reinforce positive traits (like being more disciplined and more sociable) and reduce negative ones (like anxiety or emotional instability),” he said.
Whether you’re looking to refresh your exercise regimen or starting from scratch, Aguirre recommends keeping these tips in mind:
Know yourself and your nature. Choose activities that match your traits. Start small and build consistency. Seek support if needed. Be patient with yourself.
“There is no one-size-fits-all approach,” he said.
One section of the pack shows how this has been the worst decade for government bonds across the globe on record, at least in nominal terms, although in real terms it’s still one of the worst. In today’s CoTD we show this for 10yr US govt bonds (or equivalents) back over 200 years, and for 10yr Bunds over the last 70 years. In the pack we also show the real adjusted graphs and also include the same for 30yr USTs, 10yr JGBs, 10yr Gilts and 10yr OATs.
Jim Reid Deutsche Bank
3. New Highs are Not Bearish
Ryan Detrick
4. XLF Financial Sector ETF Hits New Highs…Deregulation and Bet on Lower Rates?
StockCharts
5. International Stocks Over 17 Years
Over the last 17 years, US stocks have gained 592% versus 140% for International stocks and 93% for Emerging Markets.
Charlie Bilello
6. America’s Prison Population About to Fall Off Cliff
The Atlantic
Google
7. GEO Big Rally on Trump Election…-35% Correction from High
StockCharts
8. Internal Divisions at BRICS Summit…Half the Group’s Leaders Did Not Attend
Semafor
This weekend’s BRICS summit in Brazil put a spotlight on the growing internal divisions within the bloc of developing nations. About half of the group’s leaders, including China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin, didn’t attend the gathering. While BRICS has expanded from five members — Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa — to 11 in the last two years, the additions have brought fresh points of contention, and perhaps diluted its clout. Delegates avoided any controversial subjects that might trigger Washington’s ire, analysts said: A joint declaration condemning tariffs refrained from naming US President Donald Trump, and mentioned Ukraine only once. It marked a contrast from last year’s gathering in Russia, where the Kremlin pushed for alternatives to US-dominated financial systems.
9. Foreign Direct Investment into U.S. by Country/Region
This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Kayla Zhu, visualizes foreign direct investment (FDI) into the U.S. by country or region of origin in 2023.
ZeroHedge
10. Not smart vs. stupid
Via Seth’s Blog: Not smart is a passive act, remedied with learning, experience and thought.
Stupid is active, the work of someone who should have or could have known better and decided to do something selfish, impulsive or dangerous anyway.
The more experience, assets and privilege we have, the less excusable it is to do stupid things. And at the same time, the more useful it is to announce that we’re not smart (yet).
2. U.S. Stocks Back to 50% Premium Over International
Bloomberg
3. Nvidia insiders dump $500 Million in Stock Last 30 Days
Key Points
Insiders at artificial intelligence chipmaker Nvidia have dumped more than $1 billion in stock over the last year, according to a Financial Times report.
About half of those sales occurred during the last month as the market notched new highs and shook off geopolitical tensions.
Last week, the chipmaking giant hit a fresh record and rallied for five straight days following stock sales by CEO Jensen Huang and Nvidia’s annual shareholder meeting.
Via CNBC: Insiders at artificial intelligence chipmaker Nvidia have dumped more than $1 billion in stock over the last year, according to a report from the Financial Times.
About $500 million worth of sales occurred over the last month as the market notched new highs and shook off geopolitical tensions that had rattled investors, according to the report. The stock is up more than 17% this year despite concerns over curbs limiting AI chip sales overseas and 44% over the last three months.
Securities filings revealed that the tech titan recently unloaded about $15 million worth of shares as part of his more than $900 million plan announced in March to sell up to 6 million shares through the end of the year. Huang’s net worth totals about $138 billion, placing him as 11th on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Last week, the chipmaking giant hit a fresh record and rallied for five straight days following the stock sales and an annual shareholder meeting, where the CEO called robotics the biggest opportunity for the company after AI. That helped the chipmaker regain its seat as the most valuable company ahead Microsoft and Apple.
The FT article cited a report from VerityData, which noted that the jump in shares above $150 prompted the stock dump.
Last year, Huang unloaded more than $700 million in Nvidia shares as part of a prearranged plan.
A spokesperson for Nvidia declined to comment on the report.
4. Blackrock One Tick from New Highs
Barron’s
5. Gold ETF Closed Below 50-Day Moving Average After Holding in April and May
StockCharts
6. Tesla Failed at Previous May Highs
StockCharts
7. Japan’s Passenger Car Exports to North America Drop Largest on Record
The Koeissie Letter
8. U.S. Net Exporter of Oil vs. Historical Middle East Wars
WSJ
9. Parents Opinion on Social Media Apps
WSJ
10. Countries Satisfied vs. Dissatisfied with Democracy-Pew Research
