1. 2021 State of Venture Capital…VC Funding Jumps 106%

by Barry Ritholtz

I have noted that it seemed like VC money was everywhere, and now we have the data to confirm that. According to CBI’s State Of Venture 2021 Report, global venture funding was up 111% in 2021 hitting $620.8B. As the chart above shows, the US accounted for more than half of that, growing 107% in 2021 to reach $311.2B in investments.

We looked at fintech companies in Faster / Better / Cheaper, and as it turns out, that sector accounted for the largest amount of those VC dollars globally at $132B, or 21% of total venture funding. (This is an all-time high).

Not surprisingly, Silicon Valley led the US in VC funding in 2021, with more than $100B invested (Q4’21 was a record $29.3B); New York was 2nd at $65 billion, followed by Boston ($31B), L.A. ($24B), Seattle (~$7B), D.C. (~$5B), and Denver (~$5B). The U.S. led in global exits in 2021, followed by Europe and Asia.

If you are interested in these sorts of things, the rest of the deck is worth checking out . . .

Source:State Of Venture 2021 Report Chris BendtsenCB Insights January 12, 2022https://bit.ly/3npfVtg https://ritholtz.com/2022/01/2021-state-of-venture-capital/

2. Commodities ETF Breaking Out.

COMT Commodity ETF New Highs…50day thru 200day to upside back in Sept.

www.stockcharts.com

3. Did you know that 22% of all U.S. Dollars were created in 2020 alone? Read that again. 1/5th of all U.S. Dollars were created in 2020.

The Free Press Report-On December 2020 there were $15.4 trillion dollars in the world. At today’s date, there are $20.9 trillion dollars. In layman’s terms this is described as printing money.

In practice the Fed creates digital dollars to buy government bonds in the secondary market, known as quantitative easing. The buying of government bonds keeps bond prices high and yields low.

Assuming the interest payment on the $28.5 trillion of Federal debt is 0.07% this implies the yearly interest payment is $18.9 billion. But what if we assumed the interest rate started to move? We mapped the potential annual interest obligations out below:

• 1% – $270 billion
• 2% – $540 billion
• 3% – $810 billion
• 4% – $1.08 trillion
• 5% – $1.35 trillion
• 6% – $1.62 trillion
• 7% – $1.89 trillion
• 8% – $2.16 trillion
• 9% – $2.43 trillion
• 10% – $2.70 trillion
• 15% – $4.05 trillion
• 20% – 5.40 trillion

The United States is in big trouble if interest rates move. A move to a measly 3% interest rate implies the yearly interest payable would be around $810 billion — a 4,185% increase from the current rate.

But what if inflation gets out of control, bonds are sold off and interest rates move back to the levels we saw in the 80s? Annual interest payable on $28.5 trillion in debt would be in the trillion dollar range.

https://patriotone.substack.com

4. Inflation and Biden (or any President)

Dan Stratemeier

Managing Director-Equities, Event Driven Strategies-Jefferies LLC

6. Russell 2000 Small Cap and Nasdaq 100 Experience Record High Correlation to Start the Year

Dorsey Wright–The Russell 2000 (RUT) and Nasdaq 100 (NDX) are experiencing their highest correlation since 2012. In fact, with a current correlation (through 1/12) of 0.76, it ranks in the 98th percentile of all (daily) observations going back to 1994.

7. 60 Day Returns Nasdaq 100…Mega Cap -.38% vs. Smallest Stocks -14%

The image below shows the 60-day returns of Nasdaq-100 stocks by market cap. We can see that there is a clear performance bias favoring the largest stocks in the index. The 10 largest stocks are down -0.38% on average over the period while the 10 smallest stocks are down -14%. Meanwhile, the top half of stocks by market cap have outperformed the bottom half by nearly 5%

There has been an even more pronounced relationship between recent performance and earnings. Stocks with lower price-to-earnings (PE) ratios have outperformed those with high PE ratios or negative earnings. The chart below groups the stocks in the Nasdaq-100 by PE. The 10 lowest-PE NDX stocks, which have an average PE ratio of 13, have gained an average of 4.47% over the last two months while the 10 highest-PE stocks, with an average PE ratio of 382, are down more than 13% over the same period

https://oxlive.dorseywright.com/research/bigwire/2022/01/11/01-11-2022

8. Netflix -26% from Highs…Trades Back to August 2020 Levels.

www.stockcharts.com

9. Bets against Beyond Meat have made the plant-based food company the most shorted stock on the Russell 1000 Index

Natasha Dailey

Getty Images

• About 37% of Beyond Meat’s available shares are shorted, new data show.
• That makes the plant-based food maker the most heavily shorted company on the Russell 1000 Index.
• Short sellers made $735 million in 2021 betting against Beyond Meat as the stock sank.
• Bearish bets against Beyond Meat stock are piling up, with famed short-seller Jim Chanos also reportedly joining in.

According to the latest data from financial analytics firm S3 Partners, short interest in the plant-based food company is now about 37% of available shares, or $1.38 billion. That up from 26% in early October, and it means Beyond Meat is the most shorted company on the Russell 1000 Index, according to Bloomberg.

Betting against the company was a profitable position last year, considering short sellers made $735 million in profits, Ihor Dusaniwsky of S3 Partners told Insider in an email. In the new year though, short sellers so far have lost $126 million as Beyond Meat stock has rallied 10%.

Now Chanos, the short seller best known for predicting Enron’s collapse, is betting against Beyond Meat because he said it’s stopped being a growth company, he told The Financial Times. His firm, Kynikos Associates, did not immediately respond to Insider’s request for comment.

In 2019, Beyond Meat became the first plant-based meat startup to go public, and it had an explosive IPO. Last year, the meat-alternative company briefly became a meme stock as it rallied alongside other popular retail-trader names like AMC and GameStop.

But while shares have risen so far in 2022, the stock price has lost about 43% of its value in the last 12 months. Meanwhile, the Russell 1000 Index, which includes the top 1,000 US companies by market value, rose 20% over the same time period.

Beyond Meat stock sank 20% in November after posting a wider-than-expected loss for the third quarter and issuing a weak sales outlook. The company predicted continued labor problems and caution among customers amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Beyond Meat did not immediately respond to Insider’s request for comment for the story.

Bets against Beyond Meat have made the plant-based food company the most shorted stock on the Russell 1000 Index | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)

10. Design Your Environment

Farnam Street Tiny Thought

Environment is the hidden force that guides behavior. One reason it’s so effective is that it speaks to your subconscious mind and not your conscious mind.

Default behaviors love the path of least resistance. Not only does our environment choose that path but it pushes us in that direction.

Most of the time when we think of ‘environment’ we think only of our visible environment. Consider your house. Seeing a bag of chips on the counter makes eating healthy harder. In the same way, removing chips from the house altogether makes eating them harder. To get a bag of chips you have to get in your car and go to the store.

If we limit our understanding of environmental influences only to what we can see, we miss a large part of its powerful force. Let’s look at hidden environmental forces that shape our behavior.

We become what we consume. What you read today becomes the raw material of your thoughts tomorrow. High-quality inputs offer high-quality raw materials to assemble in the future. A person with an environment with rich sources of information makes better choices than someone consuming low-quality sources of information. Not only do they have better raw material, but they also have a broader perspective and a calmer mind. The same applies to food. What we eat today is what we become tomorrow. All things being equal, the person that eats healthier will live longer and avoid more problems than someone who does not.

Who we spend time with matters. My grandfather, like many, used to tell me you are the average of the five people you spend the most time with. A lot of wisdom, like this, gets easily dismissed because it’s not entirely accurate. That’s unfortunate because it’s very useful. By choosing who you spend time with today, you change your trajectory tomorrow.

Another bit of wisdom hiding in plain sight is that people tend to hang around people like themselves. That explains why if your friends watch TV every night, you eventually will too. You can take this in all sorts of directions. If you spend a lot of time with people who are kind and thoughtful, you will act that way too. If you spend time with people who share a certain politics, you eventually see things similarly. It also explains why, if you start spending time with people who are unlike you in certain ways you want to cultivate, you will become like them. All of this happens without conscious awareness.

By choosing who you spend time with you are also choosing who you want to be. This is the environmental force at work on your subconscious and your biological instincts.

Here are three lessons you can take from this:

1. Curate your information diet to be rich and diverse. Follow people who think differently than you. Read old books. Remember that what you put into your mind today is the raw material you have to work with tomorrow.

2. Surround yourself with people whose default behavior is your desired behavior. If you want to run more, join a group that runs every day. Spend less time with people whose default behavior isn’t your desired behavior.

3. Design your environment knowing it will influence your future self. You can easily make undesired behaviors harder and desired behaviors easier.

Understanding the invisible influence of your environment allows you to turn your desired behaviors into your default behaviors.

https://fs.blog

1. Last Time Fed Raised Rates….2 Double Digit Corrections

Ben Carlson A Wealth of Common Sense

The Fed. In 2018 we had two double-digit corrections in the U.S. stock market:

On Christmas Eve of that year we were basically in bear market territory. At the time no one really knew why the market was falling. There wasn’t a good reason.

After the fact most people agreed it was the Fed hiking rates:

The 3 Biggest Risks to the Market Right Now https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/01/the-3-biggest-risks-to-the-market-right-now/

2. Equity is Expensive but Cheaper than Bonds…Gundlach

From Dave Lutz at Jones

3. Where Does a Rise in Real Yields Start to Hurt Stock Investors?

Market watch The chart

Where does a rise in real yields start to hurt stock investors? A team of strategists at UBS, led by Bhanu Baweja, said that when yields rise more than 40 basis points over three months, “the impact on the market becomes material and goes nonlinear.”

“This is the range we regard as the rough threshold of real-rate pain
for the market. An incremental 10bp rise in real yields from here causes
the market to drop by about 0.8%, ceteris paribus. But what if other
things are not equal? A 5.2-point rise in PMIs will negate the hit to the
market from a 50bp rise in real yields,” said the strategists in a note to clients.

By

BY Barbara Kollmeyer

Follow

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/watch-out-for-stock-headwinds-and-recessionary-pressures-warns-bond-king-jeffrey-gundlach-11641989734?siteid=yhoof2

4. Bitcoin and Stocks are Increasingly Correlated

https://www.barrons.com/ Barrons

https://www.barrons.com/

5. Covid Favorite Carvana 54% From Highs

New Lows and 50 days through 200 days to downside

WSJ GM Takes Aim at Carvana, Vroom With Used-Car Website By

Mike Colias Follow

The Detroit auto maker is rolling out CarBravo, a new business that helps dealers put their used-car lots online

https://www.wsj.com/articles/gm-takes-aim-at-carvana-vroom-with-used-car-website-11641929229?mod=itp_wsj&ru=yahoo

6. The Video Game Industry Dwarfs the Box Office

Video games vs. the box office

The chart above gives some context on just how big the video game biz is. Last year the video game industry was pegged at somewhere around $180bn by Newzoo. That’s roughly ten times what the global movie industry brought in at the box office last year. Ten times. Admittedly last year the movie industry was still dealing with a pandemic hangover, but even in its best ever year the box office only brought in $39bn.

Video games may not carry the cultural impact of movies yet, but as a market they are in a completely different league.

Mobile making moves

Mobile games, that is games played on a smartphone or tablet, have grown so quickly over the last decade that they are now bigger than console and PC games combined.

Zynga’s pivot to mobile is a great example of a company that’s been flexible to its rapidly changing surroundings. Mobile games almost killed the company off, now they’re the reason it just got bought for $12.7bn.

www.chartr.com

7. The Housing Shortage Explained in One Chart

Steve Tuttle Fox Homes https://www.linkedin.com/in/steve-tuttle-871a3015a/

8. Lowest Apartment Vacancy Rate in 4o Years

From Zerohedge

Most new tenants are locked into a multi-year lease and have no intention of moving. Another issue for renters is the low housing supply, and surging prices have kept them on the sidelines. Prices are expected to continue rising in 2022.

In a separate report, Pew Research Center found rental homes and apartments across the country are experiencing the lowest vacancy rates in four decades. Despite the Covid-fueled migration patterns, a record low number of households moved between March 2020 and March 2021 because of low housing inventory.

“Rents are rising, and the discounts and concessions of 2020 are likely a thing of the past. Moreover, demand for housing continues to outpace the supply,” Bloomberg said.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-apartment-occupancy-hits-record-high-after-covid-Fueled-migration

9. Tuning out! Viewership at scandal-plagued CNN plummets by as much as 90% from last year in both overall audience and in advertiser-coveted 25-to-54 demographic.

• CNN saw a sharp decline in viewership the first week of 2022 with a nearly 90% drop both overall and in the critical demographic coveted by advertisers
• The network averaged just 548,000 viewers during the week of January 3, a precipitous drop to the nearly 2.7 million viewers from the same week in 2021
• CNN in the last year has been plagued by high-profile scandals, most notably the firing of its top-rated prime time star Chris Cuomo
• Critics have slammed network boss Jeff Zucker over the declining ratings, which began in 2021, with some accusing him of ‘protecting perverts and pedophiles’

By NATASHA ANDERSON FOR DAILYMAIL.COM

PUBLISHED: 14:07 EST, 12 January 2022 | UPDATED: 17:49 EST, 12 January 2022

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10394997/CNN-loses-nearly-90-advertiser-coveted-demographics-overall-total-audience.html

10. A Super Reader Who Gets Through Hundreds of Books a Year Explains How to Read Way More

Economist, blogger, and super reader Tyler Cowen’s advice on how to get smarter by reading way more.

BY JESSICA STILLMAN, CONTRIBUTOR, INC.COM@ENTRYLEVELREBEL

How to get smarter isn’t mysterious and it isn’t complex. The answer has been the same for millennia. Read more (though it’s true these days we do now have lots more delivery methods for insightful words). The trick isn’t in figuring out what you need to do–it’s in actually managing to do it.

Which is why I’m always on the lookout for great, unexpected ideas to squeeze more reading into our lives. Previously, I’ve uncovered ideas like hijacking your impulse to check social media to advance your reading goals, shaming yourself with a little math, and letting your book-buying impulses run wild. But when I came across a recent Financial Times article by Pilita Clark promising tips from “super readers,” my ears perked up in anticipation of more good advice.

Is it possible to read hundreds of books a year? Apparently, yes.

The whole article is worth checking out if you’ve vowed to read more in 2022. But one particular “super reader” Clark spoke to stuck out. “All pale before Tyler Cowen,” she writes. The economist, blogger, and author “has claimed that on a good night he can get through ‘five whole books.'”

That sounds impossible, but if you’re familiar with Cowen’s blog Marginal Revolution, which offers an absolute avalanche of wildly eclectic book recommendations and commentary, you know that it appears to actually be true. How does Cowen manage to get through hundreds of books a year? Another blog, Driverless Crocodile, has done us all the favor of gathering up much of what Cowen has publicly said about his reading habits.

While it’s unlikely us mere mortals will manage three digits’ worth of titles in 2022, here are some of Cowen’s best tips to at least significantly increase the pace you get through books this year.

· Be ruthless. Not captivated by a particular book at a particular time? Then on to the next. “Just stop reading, put them down,” Cowen advises. A boring intro, bad design, or hard-to-read font is enough to persuade Cowen to chuck a book. There are countless amazing books out there. Don’t settle for less than good.

· Go ahead and skim. At least in the case of nonfiction, if you already know the material, feel free to skip ahead. “When you go to read actual books you’re like, ‘I know that, I know that, I know that,’ and you keep on going, and you read much more quickly. And that’s really the way to read a lot,” says Cowen. (This also creates a virtuous cycle in which the more you read, the more you’ll know, and the more you can skip.)

· Read to solve problems. “The best reading is focused reading, when you’re trying to solve some kind of problem,” Cowen believes. You could aim to answer a specific question, investigate a given author, or scratch an itch of curiosity. “You want to start with a problem or question when you’re reading,” he insists.

· Read in clusters. This naturally follows on from the point above. If you arrange your reading around questions or areas of exploration, you’ll end up reading multiple books about the same topic. That allows you to “do a kind of cross-sectional mental econometrics and see which pieces start fitting together,” says Cowen.

· Read fiction. Gathering a stack of non-fiction titles to explore a topic is great, but don’t neglect fiction. “Reading fiction is important to understand the cross-sectional variation in humanity, to understand how difficult generalizations can be, to just get a sense of how different social pieces fit together, and to get a sense of different historical eras — and plus, reading fiction is often just plain flat-out fun,” explains Cowen. Amen to that.

· Read books about topics you know nothing about. “Every area you don’t give a damn about you probably should read at least one book in. Because the very best book in that area is superb, and you’re not going to know what it is. So if tennis is something you don’t know anything about, well, read Andre Agassi’s memoir. That’s a wonderful book. You don’t have to know about or care about tennis,” claims Cowen.

· Have fun. “Take reading seriously, develop a passion for it, and view it as part of your practice as a knowledge worker to get ahead, but along the way, having fun doing so,” Cowen concludes.

Happy (and bountiful|) 2022 reading!

https://www.inc.com/jessica-stillman/books-reading-intelligence-tyler-cowen.html?cid=sf01003

1. Fang Plus Index Holds 200 Day Moving Average.

FANG fails to top November highs….trades below 200 day most of yesterday but rallies to close above….

www.stockcharts.com

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2. Nasdaq Comp Same Story….

Never breaks above November highs….holds 200day yesterday on afternoon rally.

www.stockcharts.com

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3. MGC-MegaCap Tech ETF did Break November Highs.

MGC-made new highs and pulled back less than FANG and Naz Comp

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4. ARKK Almost Cut in Half Mark.

ARKK approached the -50% from highs levels intra-day yesterday.

www.stockcharts.com

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5. Nasdaq Averages Four 5% Pullbacks Per Year Going Back to 1972

Dorsey Wright–The Nasdaq Composite NASD has had a rocky start to 2022, with the index posting its fourth consecutive daily loss on Friday. In fact, the NASD has seen a decline in eight out of the last ten trading days. With Friday’s decline, the Composite has now pulled back over 5% from its closing value on December 27. There were a total of four 5% pullbacks in the NASD during 2021, which is right at the annual average dating back to 1972. There was only a 37-day gap between the last 5% pullback at the beginning of December and the most recent one, which is much quicker than the 92-day average gap between prior pullbacks. This also marks the swiftest 5% pullback since June 2020 at just eleven calendar days.

www.dorseywright.com

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6. Pure Growth Factor Had Its Worst Week Ever Relative to Pure Value.

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7. This Chart Shows KRE-Regional Bank Stocks vs. S&P to Start 2022 Massive Spike in Outperformance.

Jan 1. 2022 Bank Spike Vs. S&P

www.stockcharts.com

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8. Gold and Warren Buffett Even 10 Year Performance.

@Charlie Bilello Same Outcome, Different Paths

It’s no secret that Warren Buffett is not a fan of Gold, having denounced the metal as an investment on numerous occasions.

While there’s no denying Buffett’s huge long-term outperformance versus Gold, over the last 20 years they look exactly alike, with a return of +548%. Same end point, but very different paths getting there (first 10 years belonged to Gold, and the last 10 years to Buffett).

​Powered by YCharts

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9. Suburban Housing Seeing Favorable Polls

Pew Research-Americans Are Less Likely Than Before COVID-19 To Want To Live in Cities, More Likely To Prefer Suburbs

https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2021/12/16/americans-are-less-likely-than-before-covid-19-to-want-to-live-in-cities-more-likely-to-prefer-suburbs/

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10. The Best Job Candidates Are the Best Storytellers

HBR by Kelsey Schurer

Summary.   A successful job interview hinges on a great story. A great story takes the audience on a journey. It has a clear beginning, middle, and end. The “before” version of you was met with a challenge that forced you to learn, grow, and ultimately do something differently. You…more

Where your work meets your life. See more from Ascend here.

Before the pandemic, and I do mean way before, I bought a beautiful suit — deep charcoal gray with a soft silk lining. It was my interview suit.

I’d just graduated from my Master of Fine Arts program and believed that first impressions were all about how we presented ourselves. This, to a degree, is true. But in the interview room, that presentation tends to stay on the surface. Of course, you need to speak intelligently and concisely, and you need the skills and experience to qualify for the roles you’re applying for. Still, as I stared at myself in my nice suit in the mirror, I naively forgot that first impressions extend far deeper.

First impressions are meant to impress. The word “impress” has more than one meaning; the most common is to gain admiration or interest. But to impress also means to imprint, or to apply so much pressure or intent upon something that you leave a permanent mark behind.

If you think about it, the pandemic applied that pressure, imprinting us with the desire to reexamine what’s important in our lives — especially our work lives. Some of us were left with more than just a need to switch jobs, but also a radical wish for more flexibility, money, and happiness in our careers.

If you’re one of the people seeking a new work opportunity, then you’re probably prepping for a job interview (or a few).

Here’s what not to do:

• Spend all your time memorizing facts about the company and role: Learning as much as you can about the company you’re interviewing with is smart, but everyone does this. The interviewer knows what their company already has, and they’re looking for what you can add.
• Stay up late considering how you might respond to expected questions: Are you Googling “tips for a successful job interview” and reading the top articles? Rehearsing “your greatest strengths and weaknesses?” Yawn. Instantaneous boredom.
• Only share the facts of your résumé: Without the context of how you show up when it counts, you won’t impress the interviewer. Your impression will stay at the surface level, leaving the interviewer with no emotional reaction to compel them to take a deeper look at you.

A successful interview hinges on a great story.

We’re all familiar with the most popular interview questions:

• “Can you tell me about yourself?”
• “What are your greatest strengths and weaknesses?”
• “Can you explain a challenge you overcame?”

Every situational question your interviewer asks you can benefit from a great story. And understanding how to tell an authentic story about yourself in a way that leaves a permanent mark — in a way that allows your prospective employer to really see you — is the key to standing out. We all have a story to tell. Whether we’ve overcome an obstacle or learned through a mistake, our work forces us to reach within and surface our inner heroes.

But how do you paint that picture for your interviewers? As a book-writing coach who specializes in the business storytelling realm, my job is to help other people share their authentic stories (and I’ve gone through a fair number of job interviews myself).

What have I learned? A great story takes the audience on a journey. It has a clear beginning, middle, and end. The “before” version of you was met with a challenge that forced you to learn, grow, and ultimately do something differently (the beginning). You made a decision you never would have made before (the middle). Sometimes you succeeded. Other times you failed. Either way, you walked away with a lesson. You survived a challenge and emerged as a more powerful version of yourself (the end).

The Beginning: Choose a story that left a lasting imprint on you.

Every one of us has faced challenges at work. Your task is to unpack some of those moments — something few of us have taken the time to do — and practice relaying them in a compelling and authentic way.

Maybe you saved the day by speaking up when you saw something unjust. Maybe you salvaged a client account with a fantastic idea. Maybe you supported your coworker through a difficult day. Or maybe from time to time you’ve failed, walked away recognizing your mistakes, and are a stronger and more strategic performer as a result.

Remember that we’re all human, and sometimes we don’t always slay the monster — that doesn’t mean we aren’t heroes. Telling our interviewers stories of both successes and failures helps us stand out as emotionally intelligent and self-aware candidates. We each have ways, big and small, in which we’ve grown through difficult times.

To begin telling your story, start by outlining one of these instances, and do your best to choose a moment that connects to the question at hand.

For example, put yourself in the interviewer’s shoes. Pretend you have just asked me the question: Can you talk about a time when you had to overcome a challenge? Let’s say I’ve done my research and I know that “resilience” and “emotional intelligence” are qualities that your company values. To answer your question in a compelling way, I would choose a story that displays those skills and begin by explaining the obstacle I had to overcome:

During my first summer as a journalist at a local newspaper, I was assigned to photograph a festival. You should probably know now that I’m not a very good photographer, nor have I taken many photographs in my career. But I was a good field journalist, and I had proven to my editor that I could get a story from a crowded event.

The festival was guaranteed to be front-page news for the paper — which meant we needed high-quality photos and coverage. That was my job.

Talking to strangers about all the fun they were having? Piece of cake. Handling a professional-grade camera with a long, heavy lens that was such a big deal it had its own dust cloth and carrying case? That was my worst nightmare.

https://hbr.org/2021/12/the-best-job-candidates-are-the-best-storytellers?utm_campaign=hbr&utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkedin

1. Marijuana ETFs -50% on Average from Highs.

MSOS-The Largest Weed ETF back to Covid lows

www.stockcharts.com

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2. Market Rotation Out of Non-Profit Tech Stocks.

Investors dash out of US tech stocks in powerful market rotation

Source: Financial Times

From The Big Picture Blog

https://ritholtz.com

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3. 10 Year Treasury Yield Broke Out of Short-Term Range…..Is 30 Year Next?

30 Year Treasury Yield

www.stockcharts.com

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4. Unemployment Rate Drops to 3.9% Pointing to March Rate Hike

Strange Jobs Report Opens Door for March Rate Hike

The headline nonfarm payroll number was a big miss at 199,000 (vs. 450,000 expected). Seasonal adjustment problems may be partly to blame for the payrolls miss, but we expect the December release will also see upward revisions, as alternative data sources report much stronger job growth last month. Despite the payrolls miss, the rest of the report points to a hot labor market. Most notably, the unemployment rate dropped by 30 basis points to 3.9 percent, which is just 40 basis points above where the Federal Reserve (Fed) expects unemployment to be in the fourth quarter of 2022. We could reach that level as early as this spring with the possibility of reaching 3 percent by December. The tight labor market will increase wage pressure, making a March increase in the overnight rate more likely. The drop in the unemployment rate was due to a gain of 651,000 people working in the household survey, while the labor force participation rate was unchanged. The unchanged participation rate will add weight to Fed Chair Powell’s comments that a good portion of the participation shortfall is voluntary at this point, meaning that the labor market may already be at or beyond full employment.Most of Remaining Labor Force Shortfall is People 55+ Who Don’t Want to WorkNot in Labor Force by Age and Reason: Dec. 2021 Compared to 6M Pre-Covid Avg.

Source: Guggenheim Investments, Haver Analytics. Data as of 12.31.2021.

 

In another sign of how tight the labor market is, average hourly earnings rose 0.6 percent month over month, 20 basis points higher than expected, and November wage growth was also revised up. This wage data corroborate other data we’re seeing on worker bargaining power, with both the quits rate and small business wage plans at record highs. Powell has repeatedly cited strong wage growth as an upside risk to inflation.

 

Wages Are Booming with Business Signaling More Ahead

https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/perspectives

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5. For Short-Term Traders…Bitcoin the Most Oversold on RSI Since 2020 Crash.

Zerohedge-Bitcoin be the most oversold since the March 2020 crash, surpassing even the furious liquidations observed during the May 2021 crash.

Waiting for the institutional bitcoin inflow?

Looks like you have to wait a bit longer. BTC has several problems when it comes to attracting the “real” institutional flow (we are not talking MSTR nor El Salvador). BTC lacks a shorter term trend and volatility continues to be huge. This is not what institutions are looking for…

Source: JPM

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/daretobuy

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6. History of Bitcoin Corrections

@Charlie Bilello

Small Coins Crushed

https://twitter.com/charliebilello

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7. Crypto Fear and Greed Index at “Extreme Fear” Levels

https://news.bitcoin.com/crypto-fear-and-greed-index-score-hits-5-month-low-analyzed-sentiment-points-to-extreme-fear/

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8. States and Local Governments Running Healthy Surpluses.

Barrons-While the U.S. economy is expected to cool in 2022 after a pandemic resurgence, there’s a largely untapped source of hundreds of billions of dollars in potential stimulus that could keep inflation elevated for longer—and it’s sitting with state and local governments. 

State budgets are flusher than ever, benefiting from a Covid-driven combination of an estimated $885 billion in direct federal stimulus, soaring tax revenue, and curbed costs as some state and local services shifted online. State and local receipts were 16% above the prepandemic trend in the third quarter of 2021, according to an analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. State and local noninterest spending, meanwhile, was up just 5%. 

States Could Drive Rising Prices Even Higher. Here’s How.By

Megan Cassella

https://www.barrons.com/articles/inflation-risk-states-stimulus-51641431634?mod=past_editions

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9. Half of the U.S. Could Need Glasses by 2050

Myopia, or short-sightedness, is on the rise. Data from the BHVI predicts that by 2050 almost half of the global population could be affected by Myopia — more than a doubling of the rate from the year 2000. Has the pandemic made it worse? With increased amounts of screen-time, it feels intuitive that our eyes might have been put under more strain in the last two years — and there’s a decent amount of scientific evidence to back that up, as myopia has long been associated with spending more time indoors. Although there haven’t been any conclusive studies in adults since the pandemic, a study of children in Hong Kong from 2021 found that “the rate of nearsightedness that developed during the pandemic more than doubled what was found in a pre-pandemic study of children the same age”. Good time to be a glasses maker.

www.chartr.com

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10. Turning Goals into Results

How high achievers attain their goals. 

Posted January 9, 2022 |  Reviewed by Kaja Perina

KEY POINTS

• Not knowing, not doing, and the knowing-doing-gap keeps us from achieving our goals.
• A desire-fueled approach enables us to turn our goals into results.
• Track the percentage of time spent doing focused, productive work towards your goals.

At the start of a new year, we typically take account of what we have accomplished and what we would like to accomplish in the current and coming year(s). We find new determination to set and achieve our goals.

Yet many struggle to achieve the goals they so resolutely desire. We may fall into the blame game – blaming our situation or ourselves for not achieving them. Living through the challenges of the pandemic can make achieving our goals more daunting.

Learning to turn goals into results is important.

Having and achieving goals leads to having and living a life of meaning and purpose. Of the many hurdles that can get in the way of our achieving our goals, broadly speaking they fall into four areas.

Not knowing Sometimes the problem is that we are not clear about what we want. We don’t know what success would look like. So we meander in our efforts. In the absence of clarity, efforts are less directionally focused.

Not doing. Analysis paralysis is the swamp that can suck anybody in, but it is a special hazard for the more intellectually inclined. As they try to maximize and optimize choices, they incur the costs of indecisiveness and inaction. A mindset of risk aversion and reluctance to act leads to the next cause of failure to turn goals into results.

The knowing-doing gap. We know what our goals are at this point, and we often know what to do. But for many reasons, prominent of which is fear, we don’t do the needful. We may not know how to do what is required.

Circumstances change. Sometimes, however, extraneous circumstances beyond our control limit what we can do and force us to change our goals and how to achieve them. Buffeted by circumstances, our priorities change. We encounter losses – health, finances, and relationships – that narrow or close options, forcing us to accept what is, adjust accordingly, and accommodate the new normal.

How to turn goals into results 

There is a straightforward approach to turning our goals into results. It’s much like embarking on a road trip. It starts with having the desire to visit a destination. That leads to doing the required planning and preparation before setting off on the journey. Acknowledging the possibility that we may encounter road closures and detours that delay us can help us focus on reaching our destination. We can apply the same principles at scale to achieve our short-term and long-term goals.

Turning Goals into Results

Source: Rahul Bhandari

Desire is a powerful force of human nature. Advertising, branding, and marketing professionals harness it effectively. You, too, must tap into the power of desire to help you accomplish your goals. Generate within you a burning desire to achieve specific goals. Thinking of this process as strategic intent gives you the heuristic to align all you think and do towards achieving your goal(s). Shift your mindset from resisting what is required to the opportunity and ability to do it. This subtle shift from “I must do this” to “I get to do this” will allow you to take pleasure in and derive additional benefit beyond the task—giving you an added boost to do what is required.

Strategic intent in Sanskrit is known as sankalpa, a heartfelt desire, a solemn vow, an intention, determination, or a one-pointed resolve to do something. A sankalpa is a tool meant to harness the will, and to focus and harmonize mind and body on a specific goal. Your sankalpa is not just your intention. It’s your heartfelt desire: What you are meant to do in the world.

Planning is essential to achieving goals. An effective way of planning is to analyze, prioritize, and develop an operational plan. An excellent place to start is by taking an inventory of where you’re spending your time.

Over 13 weeks, track where you’re spending your time at 15-minute intervals. Then analyze the data by simply grouping the specific activities into types of activity. For example, a senior executive discovered she is spending 30% of her time in meetings she initiates, of which 80% are one-on-one meetings and 20% involve teams of people. Another 20% of her time goes into performance reviews. And so on.

\What percentage of your time are you spending doing focused, productive work towards your goals? This simple analysis gives you insights into what to stop doing, what to prioritize, and when to spend time aligned with fulfilling your desires. You can use the insights to then create a plan–for the year, quarters, months, weeks, and down to what you will accomplish each day and where you’d spend your time in 15-minute blocks. Bringing this intentionality alone provides the nudge to keep you focused on working towards achieving your goals.

Doing what is required is at the heart of achieving your goals. Three capabilities help. First, learn to manufacture time. Focus on the 20% of the effort that will get you 80% of the results. Don’t do that which you can have others do. Delegate. Second, build a team to help you in your journey. Think of elite athletes: They have an entire team of coaches, nutritionists, sports psychologists, and friends helping them prepare for and achieve their goals. Lastly, you don’t have to do everything all at once. Activate the power of compounding. Doing tasks incrementally but consistently over time accrues tremendous outcomes. This is the secret behind overnight success, which takes years of consistent and directionally focused effort.

The power of intentional living

Even the best-laid plans can sometimes be ineffective in helping us achieve our goals. The beauty of intentional living is that we can be agile – we can change our goals, come up with new plans, and take the required action to achieve them. Knowing what your goals are, planning and preparing to achieve them, and then doing what is required consistently is a proven recipe for success.

You’ve got this.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/turning-adversity-advantage/202201/turning-goals-results

1. The Stock Market was Up Big Last Year From Legit Huge Profit Margins.

Negative Manipulationby Michael BatnickOne more thing that stands out in the chart above is margin expansion. Bottom lines were hit last year as the shutdown put the squeeze on businesses. But as the economy reopened, companies found ways to improve their earnings. And that, my friends, is what ultimately drives the market.

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2022/01/04/negative-manipulation/

2. Meanwhile if you own a Nasdaq Stock without High Margins…..4 in 10 Nasdaq Composite Names Down -50% from Highs

“Massive Meltdown”: 40% Of Nasdaq Companies Are Down More Than Half From Their HighsBY TYLER DURDEN

In a testament to the narrow breadth of the Nasdaq, and the broader market in general, where as a reminder 51% of all market gains from April through December were just from the five most popular tech names – AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, GOOGL – Sundial Research notes that a near-record number of tech stocks have plunged by some 50%, a number that was only surpassed by the March 2021 crash and the global financial crisis.

Roughly four in every 10 companies on the Nasdaq Composite have seen their market values cut by 50% or more from their 52-week highs, while a vast majority of index constituents are mired in bear markets, according to Jason Goepfert, chief research officer at Sundial.

“Whatever the fundamental and macro considerations, there is no doubt that investors have been selling first and trying to figure out the rest later,” Goepfert said in a note and first noted by Bloomberg.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/massive-meltdown-40-nasdaq-companies-are-down-more-half-their-highs

3. Gold Less Volatile than Most Alternative Investments

Advisors Perspectives-Frank Holmes

The Great Gold Love Trade Is Alive And Well, As India Buys A Record Amount https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/01/06/the-great-gold-love-trade-is-alive-and-well-as-india-buys-a-record-amount

4. Bitcoin Next Support Technically $40,000

Ines Ferré https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-will-see-its-dot-com-moment-over-next-year-or-two-charts-technician-193524135.html

5. Netflix -22% from Highs and Closes Below 200 Day Moving Average.

www.stockcharts.com

6. Summary of Bond Index Returns 2021

https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1073817/8-charts-on-2021-market-performance

7. Household Net Worth 20+ Year Record Gain Last Year

From Advisor Perspectives https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/01/06/growth-cycle-outlook-2022-will-not-be-2021

8. Great Resignation in Healthcare

9. Change the Color of Your Car in the Flick of a Button

BMW just unveiled its first color-changing car, and you have to see it to believe it

BMW’s color-changing concept car is known as the “iX Flow featuring E Ink.” It was shown off at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, Nevada this week. BMW

• BMW unveiled a wild new concept at this year’s big tech trade show: A color-changing car.
• Drivers can change the color of the car at the touch of a button, instantly, the automaker said.
• Videos depicting the car changing color in real time are stunning.

Get the latest tech news & scoops — delivered daily to your inbox.

Luxury German carmaker BMW debuted a fascinating and futuristic new concept at this year’s Consumer Electronics Show: A car with the ability to change colors on-the-fly.

Rather than standard metal panels, the concept car features e-ink technology — the same tech that’s used to power Amazon’s wildly popular e-reader, the Kindle — as a means of changing colors in an instant.

The concept was shown off in real time with a modified version of the BMW iX, the company’s new flagship electric SUV, during CES this week in Las Vegas.

Attendees captured stunning videos of the car changing color in real time:

And a few media outlets got a closer look at the vehicle going through all sorts of wild color changes, which demonstrate a variety of different patterns that could be applied:

Beyond the car’s panels, there are also e-ink panels in the wheels that enable those to change as well.

“In the future, BMW customers may change the color of their car with the push of a button,” BMW project lead Stella Clarke said in a video announcing the new prototype.

When that future is remains to be seen: BMW didn’t say when the “Flow” technology it debuted this week is coming to any of its cars, but it stands to reason that it would arrive on the upcoming BMW iX model first.

The company’s first all-electric SUV is scheduled to begin arriving to pre-order customers this March.

Check out the full presentation from BMW right here:

https://www.businessinsider.com/bmw-just-unveiled-first-color-changing-car-video-2022-1

10. 3 Fundamentals of Marketing You Must Understand to Reach the Hearts and Minds of Your Customers

Marketing isn’t a panacea for your business, but it can help you grow bigger than you ever imagined.

By Scot Chrisman June 7, 2021

Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.

Many “influencers” and self-proclaimed guru’s on the internet would have you believe that marketing is the solution to all of your issues in business. Unfortunately, the marketing industry is full of under-educated media buyers who are after your money because their “guru” told them they could make $10k a month by selling you ads on an open-source platform.

These platforms are created with the ability to hyper-target who sees your ads and when. It allows you to place ads in front of a demographic of people that could be your ideal customer based on their(the advertising platform’s) psychographic data, and the hope is that you’ll get leads.

By: JobsOhio

While, in theory, this sounds like a magic pill… a panacea for all of your business problems, it’s not quite how the world of marketing works. A majority of the prospects who will buy your product won’t do it the first time they see it.

Use these three marketing fundamentals to guide your marketing decisions and create marketing campaigns that convert customers into lifetime fans.

1. Marketing is about finding and understanding a market in need

Many marketing agencies would have you believe that your ideal customers are always on the platform that they happened to be best at ad buying on. That “Facebook has billions of users, so your ideal client is definitely on there.” While it might be, many people ignore ads on Facebook and are afraid of their data and privacy. For many people who may be your ideal customer, clicking on Facebook advertisements isn’t even a risk they’re willing to take.

Finding a market in need involves these things:

• Understanding who the ideal customer is for your product or service
• Understanding where those people spend time and how they choose to spend their money
• Understanding how to place educational content in front of those people to help them understand why you’re the best option for them.

Marketing is not advertising. Ensure you understand the market before you spend your money on advertising with the assumption that it will be a magic bullet for your business. Look at where your competitors are advertising and how they’re doing it. Examine where your customers are spending their time and what their spending habits are. Research how they make their buying decisions. Utilize this information to create a true marketing strategy instead of guessing and wasting your valuable capital on guesswork and loose principles.

2. Marketing is about communicating with your potential customers

Marketing is a process of communication more than anything. Communication is about understanding each other’s point of view, not telling the other party why you’re right. Many companies will assume marketing is about telling their customers exactly why to buy their product or service… and it is, but it’s about more than that. It’s about communicating with your customers to ask what they want. It’s about learning about how you can serve them better.

Once you’ve found your market, find ways to communicate with them. This is a two-way street; offer a lead magnet, ask for direct feedback on that lead magnet, and ask them how they would ideally see their problems solved. Utilize both means of communication as a company, tell them about what you offer as well as asking for their input.

The more you can show your customers that your care about who they are and how they would like to be treated(within reason), the more you’ll earn their trust and word of mouth promotion. Utilize the channels of communication that you have to gain valuable insight and information about your customers.

See your customers as human beings with real needs and real struggles. They need empathy. They’re not just potential dollar signs. They’re people who deserve to be seen, heard, and valued. Understand and implement this, and you’ll stand head and shoulders above the crowd of other companies vying for their attention and money.

3. Marketing is a process of education

Many marketing agencies would have you believe that if you can just show your prospects the right offer, you’ll get leads. This is true but a giant waste of marketing dollars and effort if you’re not in a hot market. Often as entrepreneurs, we’re not selling a revolutionary product. We’re able to take an existing product or service and make it a little bit better.

This is at the heart of entrepreneurship, making things better… But it can make finding a hot market harder than those who have a truly revolutionary product. Entrepreneurs and businesses compete for the attention of their customers and clients. It’s once you’ve gained their attention that you can also earn their trust.

Consumers buy from people and companies that they know, like, and trust. Just like you, it’s hard to trust the stranger on the street trying to sell you… anything, so why would you expect yourself to be different? Certainly, you’d trust the food truck with great branding and a welcoming face if you’re hungry and leaving the bar, right? They’ve done their research and have placed themselves in a hot market with a professional presence.

Would you buy the same food from a stranger on the street with no food truck or professional presence after walking out of Chipotle? Not likely. But if they handed you a small flyer about who they are, why they do what they do, how they source all of their ingredients locally, and how they give back to the community, would you be intrigued to check it out next time instead of Chipotle? If you’re the right prospect, the answer would be yes.

If you’re in the wrong market or miss the timing, it’s not likely that your customers will want to buy from you at that very moment. That said, you can still educate them as to why you might be a better choice next time.

Use education to draw your ideal customers closer to a decision to buy. Don’t just throw your offer in front of them every time you get the chance. Spend time educating your prospects and allow them to make a new choice once they’ve learned why it’s advantageous for them.

Marketing is something that takes research, time, and understanding. It requires patience, compassion, and empathy. And it’s not about forcing or willing your product into the hands of your customers. It’s about understanding what they truly need and giving it to them in a way they admire and respect. Use these fundamentals to guide your next marketing campaign and see what new doors it opens up for your business.

https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/369736