Topley’s Top 10 – December 28, 2021

1.The Market Can’t Keep Rising Because of National Debt.

Charlie B–Stock market ignores debt


2.Second Most All-Time Highs in S&P Ever.

From Cal THomas The Weekly Chart Storm

All-Time Highs:  Not quite a new ATH in ATH’s but pretty close to it — the year 2021 is in second place at an updated 68 new All-Time-Highs.

Source:  @drtimedwards

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/weekly-sp500-chartstorm-26-december-2021-callum-thomas/?trk=eml-email_series_follow_newsletter_01-hero-1-title_link&midToken=AQFjhnSMpoKQvw&fromEmail=fromEmail&ut=2kcMsQJEVseG41


3.Strongest Increase in 17 Years for Retail Sales.

US retail sales up 8.5 percent this holiday season

US consumers were in the mood to spend this holiday season, with retail sales soaring 8.5 percent over last year, a study released Sunday showed.

Online sales were up 11 percent and in-store sales up 8.1 percent between November 1 and Christmas Eve, according to the Mastercard SpendingPulse study.

The increase, which was the strongest in 17 years, does not reflect automobile sales.

“Consumers splurged throughout the season,” said Steve Sadove, senior advisor for Mastercard and former CEO of Saks Incorporated.

The boom saw “apparel and department stores experiencing strong growth as shoppers sought to put their best dressed foot forward,” he said.

Americans flocked to clothing, which experienced a 47.3 percent increase in sales year-to-year as well as jewelry, with a 32 percent increase.

The period included several weeks before the Omicron Covid-19 variant spread widely in the United States.

Department store sales were up 21.2 percent, while electronic products experienced 16.2 percent growth.

“It’s been a resurgent season for retailers as consumers stocked their carts with gifts and gadgets,” Mastercard said.

The study also indicated that US households made their purchases earlier than in years past, including to lock in “guaranteed by Christmas” delivery.

vmt/bfm/leg

https://news.yahoo.com/us-retail-sales-8-5-013714626.html

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RSXFS


4.China Update

China Large Cap-Nowhere for 5 Years

China small cap -27% correction

China Internet Stocks break all support now below Covid lows -62% from highs

www.stockcharts.com


5. Real Yields Went from +1% to -1%….Growth Stock PE’s went from 17x to 33x

Cameron Dawson Fieldpoint–As real yields have gone from +`1% in late 2018 to -1% today, Growth PE valuations have gone from 17x to 33x today. Value has been left out of this re-rating, only increasing from 14x in 2018 to 17x today. The last time real rates rose meaningfully was 1Q21, increasing 50 bps. That quarter Growth underperformed Value by 10%. The underperformance was brief, though, as real rates resumed their decline and Growth valuations started to expand again through the summer of 2021 https://twitter.com/CameronDawson

https://twitter.com/CameronDawson/status/1475589446481465353/photo/1


6.77% of Investors Have Never Experienced Inflation

https://twitter.com/MacroAlf


7.Personal Savings Rate Dips from Covid Highs but Household Excess Savings are Massive.

The Daily Shot Blog United States: Savings as a share of disposable income are now at the low end of the pre-COVID range.

But cumulative excess savings remain massive.

Source: Patrick Zweifel, Pictet Wealth Management

But cumulative excess savings remain massive.


8.Boosted by Private Sales and NFTs, Christie’s Brought in a Total of $7.1 Billion in 2021—Its Best Results in Five Years

Christie’s came in second behind Sotheby’s in overall results, but private sales surged.

Eileen Kinsella, December 20, 2021

Christie’s New York on November 9. Photo: Katya Kazakina.

As end-of-year results roll in for more and more art businesses, it’s clear that the surge in global wealth is having a major impact on the demand for blue-chip art and luxury goods. And of course, no recap of 2021 would be complete without discussion of digital art and NFTs, or non-fungible tokens, the latter of which has taken off with considerable force this year.

This morning, Christie’s reported its 2021 sales at $7.1 billion, calling it the highest total in the last five years. This included projected private sales of $1.7 billion, which the house also said was a record high.  Private sales saw an increase of 12 percent over 2020, and 108 percent over 2019, with four individual sales bring in more than $50 million each. The auction house, which sold the first major and arguably market-verifying NFT—Beeple’s $69 million Everydays: The First 5000 Days this past March—also said it took in $150 million from sales of the digital art form this year.

Calling the results “exceptional,” Christie’s CEO Guillaume Cerutti said the house “made a breakthrough  in new sales formats and categories, NFTs in particular.” Cerutti, along with numerous other Christie’s executives, hosted an in-depth Zoom call with media this morning to discuss the results and field questions. In a statement, Cerutti said the new sale formats “have allowed us to showcase works by new, emerging and under-represented artists, and to reach out to a new audience of younger clients.”

Further, he noted serious progress in other recent initiatives including investments in Asia, and commitments to becoming carbon net zero by 2030.

Meanwhile, auction sales totaled $5.4 billion, up significantly from last year’s reported total of $4.4 billion. (That result was a 25 percent drop from 2019, attributed chiefly to the decrease in live auctions and a shutdown-induced shock of supply). Christie’s also cited an historic sell-through rate at auction of 87 percent, which it said “demonstrates depth of demand and performance.”

Christie’s is still a notch behind its main competitor Sotheby’s, however, which reported its totals for 2021 to date at $7.3 billion last week, also a record for the house. This marked the second consecutive year in which Sotheby’s overall total edged it out. But Christie’s private sales results outpaced the $1.3 billion that Sotheby’s reported in this category last week.

After a rocky year in 2020, all of the major auction houses skillfully pivoted in 2021 to embrace hybrid models for their sales that are heavy on technology and online bidding. They have disrupted the traditional seasonal schedule but also allowed for flexibility by holding major sales that are not tied to strict calendar dates. That trend is expected to continue moving forward.

Among its biggest bragging rights, Christie’s could claim the two most expensive works of art sold at auction this year: Picasso’s Femme assise près d’une fenêtre (Marie-Thérèse) (1932), for $103.4 million, and Jean-Michel Basquiat’s In This Case (1983), for $93.1 million, both in May.

Another highlight of the year was the auction house’s November sale of Impressionist works  amassed by the late Texas oil magnate Edwin Cox. The sale pulled in a total of $332 million with premium, surpassing the $267.6 million high estimate. According to Christie’s, just over half the works went to collectors based in the Americas, 35 percent went to Europe, and 13 percent went to Asia.

At that event, the Getty Museum in Los Angeles acquired one of one of the star lots, Gustave Caillebotte’s Jeune homme à sa fenêtre (1876), a rare and imposing painting of the artist’s brother gazing out a window from the family’s residence in Paris. Expected to bring in more than $50 million, it sold for $53 million including buyer’s premium, shattering the artist’s existing auction record of $22 million.

Beeple, HUMAN ONE(2021). Courtesy of Christie’s.

And as for those omnipresent NFTs, Christie’s said sales of the digital art form made up eight percent of its contemporary art total for the year and attracted younger buyers, 74 percent of whom were new to Christie’s. Beeple’s Everydays – The First 5000 Days accounted for a major portion of that $150 million total, and the artist’s HUMAN ONE hybrid NFT sculpture achieved just under $30 million in November ($28,985,000). Other NFT sale highlights included Larva Labs’ Cryptopunks, which brought in $17 million, and a digital artwork by FEWOCiOUS, which made $2.16 million.

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Want to stay ahead of the art world? Subscribe to our newsletter to get the breaking news, eye-opening interviews, and incisive critical takes that drive the conversation forward.

https://news.artnet.com/market/christies-reports-2021-results-best-five-years-2052122


9.Multifamily Apartments–The ‘5 Ps’ Shaping Function and Livability in Today’s Home Design

By: Quinn Purcell, Utopia Associate Editor, Nov. 11, 2021

National design firm Mary Cook Associates published its third white paper in a series on the fundamentals of interior design. Here’s how the increase in working from home and other lifestyle changes have affected the multifamily and single-family development process, and what designers can do to adapt.

 

Multifamily and single-family housing developments benefit from various recreational spaces, according to Mary Cook Associates. Photo by Pixabay from Pexels

Design firm Mary Cook Associates (MCA) recently released its third white paper dedicated to interior design methodology and fundamentals. This eight-part series from MCA highlights the ways developers and builders of multifamily and single-family units can respond to recent shifts in home life.

The paper, ‘Living It Up’, develops ‘Five Ps’ recharacterizing livability in single-family and multifamily interiors since the COVID-19 pandemic. These are factors that were not only relevant a year ago, but remain as mainstays for many design projects.

THE ‘5 PS’ IMPACTING HOME DESIGN IN THE AGE OF ‘WORK FROM HOME’

Packages

The increase in delivery-based consumerism—a pre-COVID-19 trend that went into overdrive, with 77% of people saying they changed the way they shop during the pandemic—is directly impacting design. Making spaces that accommodate packages of all shapes and sizes has become a major new priority.


‘Twenty-five years ago, nobody dreamed that one of the largest logistical challenges for multi-family developments would be how to handle all those Amazon deliveries. Now, delivery processing is as vital as plumbing!’ — Mary Cook, Founder and President of MCA


Pets

With the increase in pet adoption and ownership during the pandemic—an all-time high of 70% of U.S. households, according to the American Pet Products Association—functionality is vital for the wellbeing of pet and owner alike.

Communities and homes with interior and exterior pet-friendly spaces and functional amenities, from dog wash areas to feeding and sleeping stations, is a significant draw for pet lovers.

Plug-ins

As highlighted in Utopia’s ‘Top 10 Business and Technology Systems’ report on multifamily housing in 2021, the work-from-home societal shift comes with necessary changes to our tech and internet usage.

The evolving work-from-home (WFH) lifestyle has set new technology standards. Multifamily residents seek collaborative workspaces, strong WiFi, and well-thought-out places to plug in devices, while adaptable spaces are key for supporting WFH in single-family homes.

Play

Data shows that most U.S. adults (66%) are concerned with the pandemic interfering with their healthy habits. Coping with the challenges of the pandemic amplified almost everyone’s need for play, driving demand for recreational spaces and those that promote fitness and healthy habits, including curated space that fosters activity transitions.


‘We’re seeing burgeoning demand for varied uses of recreational space.’ — Mary Cook


Personal Space/Privacy

With the increase in remote work and learning during the pandemic, so arose the need for personal space and privacy. Separate areas of the home should be designed with this desire in mind, especially when an increasing lack of privacy has been linked to mental health issues in recent years.

Remote work, virtual school, more family members at home and changing quarantining restrictions have created the need for more personal space and privacy within the home, with “pocket spaces” that create mini-territories for specific activities emerging as a design solution.

KEY TAKEAWAY

The ‘5 Ps’—Packages, Pets, Plug-ins, Play, and Personal space/Privacy—are mainstays shaping function and livability in today’s residential interiors, according to MCA. Designs that take into account these factors impact residents’ well-being, inspiring positive moods and motivation.

“Long before we start thinking of color, pattern, and ornament, we have to start with something more basic,” Mary Cook says. “What should the space be? How should it work? What are the needs of the people using it?”

When we live in the era of ‘work from home’—including online teaching and learning as well—it’s important that home design match our increasingly complex necessities. A well-designed interior space may just turn someone’s simple home into an oasis.

To download the report or read more about how Mary Cook Associates uses psychographics, an understanding of target markets, and insights into shifting lifestyle needs, check out the full white paper on Mary Cook’s website.

https://www.constructutopia.com/5-ps


10. Rohn: A Good Life Contains These 6 Essentials

Success.com By Jim Rohn | September 9, 2014 | 

 

The ultimate expression of life is not a paycheck. The ultimate expression of life is not a Mercedes. The ultimate expression of life is not a million dollars or a bank account or a home. The ultimate expression of life is living a good life.

Here’s what we must ask constantly, What, for me, would be a good life? And you have to keep going over and over the list—a list including areas such as spirituality, economics, health, relationships and recreation.

So, what would constitute a good life? Here is a short list:

1. Productivity

You won’t be happy if you don’t produce. The game of life is not rest. Yes, we must rest, but only long enough to gather strength to get back to productivity.

What’s the reason for the seasons and the seeds, the soil and the sunshine, the rain and the miracle of life? It’s to see what you can do with it—to try your hand to see what you can do.

2. Good Friends

Friendship is probably the greatest support system in the world, so don’t deny yourself the time to develop it. Nothing can match it. It’s extraordinary in its benefit.

Friends are those wonderful people who know all about you and still like you. I lost one of my dearest friends when he was 53—heart attack. As one of my very special friends, I used to say that if I was stuck in a foreign jail somewhere accused unduly, and, if they would allow me one phone call, I would call David. Why? He would come and get me. That’s a real friend—somebody who would come and get you.

And we’ve all got casual friends, friends who, if you called them, they would say, “Hey, if you get back, call me and we’ll have a party.”

You’ve got to have both real friends and casual friends.

3. Your Culture

Language, music, ceremonies, traditions, dress. All of that is so vitally important that you must keep it alive. The uniqueness of all of us, when blended together, brings vitality, energy, power, influence, and rightness to the world.

4. Spirituality

It helps to form the foundation of the family that builds the nation. And make sure you study, practice and teach—don’t be careless about the spiritual part of your nature because it’s what makes us who we are, different from dogs, cats, birds and mice.

5. Don’t Miss Anything

My parents taught me not to miss anything, not the game, the performance, the movie, the dance. Just before my father died at 93, if you were to call him at 10:30 or 11 at night, he wouldn’t be home. He was at the rodeo, he was watching the kids play softball, he was listening to the concert, he was at church—he was somewhere every night.

Go to everything you possibly can. Buy a ticket to everything you possibly can. Go see everything and experience all you possibly can.

Live a vital life. If you live well, you will earn well. If you live well, it will show in your face; it will show in the texture of your voice. There will be something unique and magical about you if you live well. It will infuse not only your personal life but also your business life. And it will give you a vitality nothing else can give.

6. Your Family and the Inner Circle

Invest in them, and they’ll invest in you. Inspire them, and they’ll inspire you. Take care of the details with your inner circle.

When my father was still alive, I used to call him when I traveled. He’d have breakfast most every morning with the farmers at a little place called The Decoy Inn out in the country where we lived in Southwest Idaho.

When I was in Israel, I’d have to get up in the middle of the night, but I’d call Papa. I’d say, “Papa, I’m in Israel.” He’d say, “Israel! Son, how are things in Israel?” He’d talk real loud so everybody could hear. I’d say, “Papa, last night they gave me a reception on the rooftop underneath the stars overlooking the Mediterranean.” He’d say, “Son, a reception on the rooftop underneath the stars overlooking the Mediterranean?” Now everybody knew the story. And giving my father that special day only took five or 10 minutes.

If a father walks out of the house and he can still feel his daughter’s kiss on his face all day, he’s a powerful man. If a husband walks out of the house and he can still feel the imprint of his wife’s arms around his body, he’s invincible all day. It’s the special stuff with your inner circle that makes you strong and powerful and influential. So don’t miss that opportunity.

The prophet said, “There are many virtues and values, but here’s the greatest: one person caring for another.” There is no greater value than love.

So make sure in your busy day to remember the true purpose and the reasons you do what you do. May you truly live the kind of life that will bring the fruit and rewards that you desire.

Related: Rohn: 13 Ways to Improve Your Life

https://www.success.com/rohn-a-good-life-contains-these-6-essentials/

Topley’s Top 10 – December 23, 2021

1.December Sector Performance…Defensive Lead

www.dorseywright.com

2.Performance Difference 2020-2021 Between Non-Profitable and Profitable Stocks.

From Irrelevant Investor Blog

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2021/12/20/animal-spirits-massive-etf-inflows/

3.Private Markets Surpass $10 Trillion…Tons of Dry Powder on Sidelines.

Some extra trillions in buying power

In 2021, private markets (mainly PE) have surpassed the $10tn threshold. In 2021, a substantial increase in allocated capital took place as dealmaking was difficult in 2020. The fundraising in 2021 also caused the dry powder to remain high despite large commitments. Most of the assets are managed by the private equity industry and other types of assets.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/frustrating

4.Biggest Spread in U.S. Outperformance vs. International Since….You Guessed IT……1999

Just to put things into perspective: US stocks beating rest of world by most in 2 decades. The S&P 500 has surged 25% YTD compared w/3% gain from the MSCI All-Country World ex-US Index, BBG has calculated.

Holger Zschaepitz

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner

5.$119,717,895,834,140

Bloomberg That’s the total value of global equity markets, which reached a record of $120 trillion and has doubled from the low point reached at the start of the pandemic in March 2019. The rise has been relentless.

By

Mark Gilbert and

Marcus Ashworth

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-20/what-eight-charts-are-telling-us-about-markets-in-2022?utm_content=view&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-facebook-view&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&fbclid=IwAR1zhXoVA-TStrCMD1s0bizGkK1xjymLHFUYUN49meMYmAzvXR5e4Qa-lrU&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-view&sref=GGda9y2L

6. Global oil consumption is expected to return to an average of 99.5 million barrels per day in 2022, about the same level it was at in 2019.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/global-oils-comeback-year-presages-more-strength-2022-2021-12-23/

7.Methane Gas Breakdown.

Found at 1440 Digest Letter https://join1440.com

McKinsey The Year in Charts

https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/2021-year-in-review/2021-the-year-in-charts?utm_source=join1440&utm_medium=email&utm_placement=newsletter

8.Faster NFL Wide Receivers Doesn’t Mean Better

Five Thirty Eight Blog

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/faster-nfl-prospects-arent-always-better/

9.The U.S. city where 1-bedroom rents rose the most since 2020 isn’t in California or New York

“The issue of affordability issue has been mounting for decades.”

Shawn M. Carter@SHAWNCARTERM

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Twenty/20

After a slowdown during the beginning of the pandemic, rent prices are bouncing back big time. The median monthly cost for a one-bedroom apartment rose 11.6% over the course of the year, according to Zumper’s 2021 National Rent Report, and some cities have risen well beyond that.

While most people may think one-bedrooms have surged most in expensive states like California or New York, they’re actually rising faster in Florida.

Here are the 10 U.S. cities where costs have jumped the most.

10. St. Petersburg, Florida

Median one-bedroom rent: $1,580
Year-over-year growth: 24.4%

9. Mesa, Arizona

Median one-bedroom rent: $1,210
Year-over-year growth: 24.7%

8. Boise, Idaho

Median one-bedroom rent: $1,410
Year-over-year growth: 24.8%

7. Henderson, Nevada

Median one-bedroom rent: $1,590
Year-over-year growth: 25.2%

6. Jacksonville, Florida

Median one-bedroom rent: $1,220
Year-over-year growth: 27.1%

5. Glendale, Arizona

Median one-bedroom rent: $1,200
Year-over-year growth: 27.7%

4. New York, New York

Median one-bedroom rent: $3,190
Year-over-year growth: 32.4%

3. Orlando, Florida

Median one-bedroom rent: $1,620
Year-over-year growth: 32.8%

2. Tampa, Florida

Median one-bedroom rent: $1,630
Year-over-year growth: 38.1%

1. Miami, Florida

Median one-bedroom rent: $2,280
Year-over-year growth: 38.29%

https://grow.acorns.com/cities-where-rents-have-jumped-the-most-since-2020/?utm_source=join1440&utm_medium=email&utm_placement=newsletter

10.Some Stoic End of the Year Thoughts-Ryan Holiday

Here we are at the end of the year once again. It’s ironic to me that sandwiched at the completion of one year and the beginning of another, we have two vastly different rituals.

On the one hand, we have Christmas, which has for too many of us, become so materialistic and gluttonous. We expect gifts and good food and overindulge in both. On the other hand, we have the “New Year, New You” mentality which promotes ambitious new resolutions in which we commit to utterly change ourselves in the upcoming twelve months (or until we abandon these inconvenient goals).

It all seems to be all so misguided. In a way, one creates the problems that the other attempts to solve.

New Year’s resolutions can however be a useful way to reflect on your bad habits.

For example, one of my friends recently managed to give up smoking after first making the switch to vaping. This time last year, he bought an e-cigarette and some e-liquid from the Air Factory range and slowly but surely began to suppress his nicotine addiction. It’s no secret that vaping is claimed to be a safer alternative to regular cigarettes, so resolutions such as this can certainly have a positive impact on our lives and well being.

Furthermore, the Stoics provide good advice here, as always. These two thousand year old, pre-Christian philosophers offer us a clearer way to live–without the ups and downs and extra helpings of self-loathing.

Let’s look at three quick insights for the holiday season:

First, practice your “contemptuous expressions.” I know contempt seems like a weird emotion to bring to Christmas but stay with me. As you look out over the bountiful offering of Christmas–the presents, the food, the lights–remind yourself what this stuff really is: a bunch of stuff. As Marcus Aurelius once wrote, sounding like he was almost describing a Christmas dinner:

“Like seeing roasted meat and other dishes in front of you and suddenly realizing: This is a dead fish. A dead bird. A dead pig. Perceptions like that—latching onto things and piercing through them, so we see what they really are. That’s what we need to do all the time.”

What’s important are the people and the thoughts. Don’t let yourself get distracted from them.

Second, live in the present moment. That is, don’t obsess over what has happened in the past or lose yourself in visions of the future. Focus on what is right here, right in front of you. Make the most of it, and enjoy yourself. This moment could be all you have after all–it’s so much better to think that 2015 is not a guarantee and then to be grateful for all of it, then to have expectations and entitlements that go unfulfilled.

As Marcus Aurelius reminded himself:

“Don’t let your imagination be crushed by life as a whole. Don’t try to picture everything bad that could possibly happen. Stick with the situation at hand.”

What matters right now is right now. Enjoy it.

Third, if you are going to try to improve in the next year or you do have some regrets about the previous year, don’t just hope that this will happen. That’s not how it works. As Seneca wrote to a friend who’d asked for advice, you need to pick a person or a model to hold yourself against.

“Choose someone whose way of life as well as words, and whose very face as mirroring the character that lies behind it, have won your approval. Be always pointing him out to yourself either as your guardian or as your model. There is a need, in my view, for someone as a standard against which our characters can measure themselves. Without a ruler to do it against you won’t make crooked straight. ”

So, who will it be for you this year?

**

Stoicism is not something you “believe”, it’s something you do. It’s a practical philosophy. The more you work it, the more it will do for you. So why not start now? There isn’t a better time.

As a final parting thought, remember that we choose whether this was a good year or a bad year. We choose whether everything is good or bad. As Seneca said, “a good person dyes events with his own color…and turns whatever happens to his own benefit.”

This is the attitude for success and optimism in all situations. By controlling our perceptions, we create a reality in which every situation, no matter what it is, provides us with a positive, exposed benefit we can act on, if only we look for it.

With this in mind, I hope you enjoy the holidays and consider the Stoics when you can.

For more on Stoicism visit The Daily Stoic.

https://ryanholiday.net/some-stoic-end-of-the-year-thoughts/

Topley’s Top 10 – December 22, 2021

1. 2021 1000 IPOs

Overall, 2021 marked the strongest year for IPO listings and volumes in history, with the barrier of 1,000 offerings being hit in the last month of the year, according to Dealogic data, which showed a record $315 billion raised when that total had never before hit $200 billion in a year. More than half of those deals were SPACs, as 606 blank-check companies went public in 2021, with most of them heavily frontloaded into the beginning of the year — 298 of the SPACs that went public were in the first quarter of 2021, according to Dealogic.

There were 1,000 IPOs in 2021 for the first time, but there may be some problems under the hoodBy 1.

Emily Bary https://www.marketwatch.com/story/there-were-1-000-ipos-in-2021-for-the-first-time-but-there-may-be-some-problems-under-the-hood-11640115839?mod=home-page

2. More Global Money Still Flowing into Bonds than Stocks….Savings Glut Holds Rates Down.

A Global Savings Glut Is Set to Anchor U.S. Yields Below 2%

Garfield Reynolds and Michael MacKenzie

(Bloomberg) — Anyone gearing up for bond yields to surge in 2022 should think again. A global glut of saved cash has the potential to restrain an increase in rates, even as central banks dial back their pandemic stimulus.

The strength of demand for bonds even in the face of deeply negative real returns underpins the broad consensus that 2% may act as a ceiling for U.S. 10-year yields in the coming year. Hedge funds have built up the biggest short positions in 11 months with rates expected to climb in 2022 thanks to both inflation and expectations that the Federal Reserve will respond. But strategists expect the advance to be gradual and top out in negative territory on an inflation-adjusted basis.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the role of deep-pocketed foreign investors in repressing longer-dated yields just after this month’s final policy meeting for 2021. The way that dynamic is expected to keep anchoring yields helps explain why U.S. policy makers mostly seem relaxed about flattening yield curves, rather than fretting over whether they signal that aggressive rate hikes could kill off economic growth.

“Deep pools of savings in Europe, Japan and north Asia broadly are going to continue to underpin demand for bonds, hence the persistence of negative and ultra-low yields,” said Martin Whetton, head of fixed-income and foreign-exchange strategy at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the nation’s largest lender. “These investors will always be attracted to positive yields, be they outright or FX-hedged, and so we expect 10-year Treasuries will find demand around the 2% mark.”

The global savings glut is set to come roaring back as a major driver in bond markets, offsetting a retreat from the Fed and other central banks as they end bond buying and start hiking rates in an attempt to cool off the strongest inflation readings in decades. While that may be bad news for bond bears, it could offer a sunnier path for equities and other risk assets by signaling that low longer-term yields don’t necessarily translate to a downbeat economic outlook.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-savings-glut-set-anchor-010154421.html

3. Chart Comments.

CNBC-Cramer-One piece of technical data that Garner is considering is the S&P 500′s longer-term monthly chart, according to Cramer. After breaking through the trendline ceiling of resistance roughly a year ago, Cramer said it is now very far above trend.

“Historically, these types of breakouts almost always see a retest of the previously broken trendline,” Cramer said. “In other words, she’d expect the S&P to pull back near the trendline, which …would put it around 4,000. People, that’s down almost 14% from here. … If we get a close below 4,000, she thinks that would pave the way for a much larger correction.”

In Garner’s view, other worrisome signs include the momentum indicator Relative Strength Index sitting in overbought territory on a monthly chart basis, Cramer said. “When you look at the action over the last 20 years, a reading this high can open the door to some nasty declines,” he said.

Charts suggest the S&P 500 may not be as strong in 2022 as

Kevin Stankiewicz@KEVIN_STANK https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/21/jim-cramer-charts-suggest-sp-500-may-not-be-as-strong-in-2022.html

4. Five Stocks Driving the Market

WSJ-One measure of market breadth compares the performance of the market-cap weighted S&P 500 with an equal-weighted version. The latter usually outperforms the former when a greater number of stocks are rising; that happened between November 2020 and April 2021, when the equal-weight benchmark outpaced its counterpart by 7 percentage points. Over the past six months, the S&P 500 has outpaced the equal-weight index by nearly 4 percentage points.

WSJ-Michael Wursthorn

https://www.wsj.com/articles/five-big-tech-stocks-are-driving-markets-that-worries-some-investors-11640060038?mod=itp_wsj&ru=yahoo

5. Euro Gas Prices 2021

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading–Lower supplies into Germany will force Europe to keep withdrawing gas at high rates from its already depleted storages. As freezing temperatures spread across the continent this week, more gas will be needed to keep the lights on as Europe’s vast network of renewable sources also can’t fill the gap, with German wind output at the lowest in five weeks, Bloomberg reports.

6. What is Web 3.0?

Zerohedge–So what form might “Web 3.0” take? We lay out a few key principles:

  • Likely more control by the user of their data (including data residing on-device);
  • Likely a more micro focus – a mean reversion on scale (either in end market being tackled or in relationship between the platform and the user);
  • The rise of individual as creator & creator monetizing their content more directly with “fans”;
  • Increasingly decentralized (with the possible breakdown of the mobile operating system/app store distribution model over the next 5-10 years ); &
  • Flexibility (if not innovation) on payment mechanisms aimed at a mix of themes, including decentralized privacy and anti-establishment.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jack-dorsey-elon-musk-slam-web-30-what-it

7. Crypto Poaching Silicon Valley Tech Talent.

By Daisuke Wakabayashi and Mike Isaac

OAKLAND, Calif. — When Sandy Carter left her job as a vice president of Amazon’s cloud computing unit this month, she announced in a LinkedIn post that she was joining a crypto technology company. She included a link for open positions at the start-up.

Within two days, she said, more than 350 people — many from the biggest internet companies — had clicked the link to apply for jobs at the firm, Unstoppable Domains. The start-up sells website addresses that sit on the blockchain, the distributed ledger system that underpins cryptocurrencies.

“It’s the perfect storm,” Ms. Carter said. “The momentum we’re seeing in this space is just incredible.”

Ms. Carter is part of a wave of executives and engineers leaving cushy jobs at Google, Amazon, Apple and other large tech companies — some of which pay millions of dollars in annual compensation — to chase what they see as a once-in-a-generation opportunity. That next big thing is crypto, they sasoared around 60 percent this yearid, a catchall designation that includes digital currencies like Bitcoin and products like nonfungible tokens, or NFTs, that rely on the blockchain.

Silicon Valley is now awash with stories of people riding seemingly ridiculous crypto investments like Dogecoin, a digital coin based on a dog meme, to life-changing wealth. Bitcoin has , while Ether, the cryptocurrency tied to the Ethereum blockchain, has increased more than fivefold in value.

But beyond that speculative mania, a growing contingent of the tech industry’s best and brightest sees a transformational moment that comes along once every few decades and rewards those who spot the seismic shift before the rest of the world. With crypto, they see historical parallels to how the personal computer and the internet were once ridiculed, only to upend the status quo and mint a new generation of billionaires.

Investors, too, have flooded in. They have poured more than $28 billion into global crypto and blockchain start-ups this year, four times the total in 2020, according to PitchBook, a firm that tracks private investments. More than $3 billion has gone into NFT companies alone.

“There is a giant sucking sound coming from crypto,” said Sridhar Ramaswamy, chief executive of search engine start-up Neeva and a former Google executive, who competes with crypto companies for talent. “It feels a bit like the 1990s and the birth of the internet all over again. It’s that early, that chaotic and that much full of opportunity.”

“There is a giant sucking sound coming from crypto,” said Sridhar Ramaswamy, chief executive of Neeva, outside the company’s office in Mountain View, Calif.Credit…Jessica Chou for The New York Times

Crypto, which has also been rebranded as the less foreboding web3, may be no different from past speculative bubbles like subprime mortgages or the tulip craze of the 17th century, skeptics said. Much of the mania, they said, is being driven by a desire to get rich quick by trading an asset class that often seems based on internet jokes.

https://www.nytimes,com/2021/12/20/technology/silicon-valley-cryptocurrency-start-ups.html

8. Here Are the 10 Trendiest Cities in America Where You Can Still Afford To Buy a Home

Realtor.com By Sara Ventiera

https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/where-the-cool-kids-are-10-trendy-u-s-metros-you-can-still-afford-to-buy-a-home/

9.Top 6 Wealth Killers

Peter Mallouk

@PeterMallouk

Top 6 Wealth Killers:

#1 by a landslide: credit card debt

2. High student loans without a high earning degree

3. House(s)/car(s) beyond needs and with a higher carrying cost than you can afford

4. A partner that encourages excessive spending

5. Lifestyle creep

6. Divorce

https://twitter.com/PeterMallouk/status/1473453913894436875

10.Are You Developing Skills That Won’t Be Automated?

by

Harvard Business Review Stephen M. Kosslyn

Summary. The future of work looks grim for many people. A recent study estimated that 10% of U.S. jobs would be automated this year, and another estimates that close to half of all U.S. jobs may be automated in the next decade. The jobs that are likely to be automated are…more

The future of work looks grim for many people. A recent study from Forrester estimated that 10% of U.S. jobs would be automated this year, and another from McKinsey estimates that close to half of all U.S. jobs may be automated in the next decade.

The jobs that are likely to be automated are repetitive and routine. They range from reading X-rays (human radiologists may soon have much more limited roles), to truck driving, to stocking a warehouse. While much has been written about the sorts of jobs that are likely to be eliminated, another perspective that has not been examined in as much detail is to ask not which jobs will be eliminated but rather which aspects of surviving jobs will be replaced by machines.

For example, consider the job of being a physician: It is clear that diagnosing illnesses will soon (if not already) be accomplished better by machines than humans. Machine learning is spectacularly effective when data sets are available for training and testing, which is the case for a wide range of diseases and ailments. However, what about sitting with a family to discuss treatment options? This is far less likely to be automated in the foreseeable future.

Now consider a profession at the other end of the status spectrum: barista. In San Francisco, Cafe X has replaced all baristas with industrial robot arms, which entertain customers with their antics as they make hot beverages. However, even Cafe X employs a human, who shows customers how to use the technology to order their drinks and troubleshoots problems that arise with the robot barista.

Contrast being a barista with being a bartender. People often strike up a conversation with the bartender. This job clearly is about more than just mixing drinks. Like the physician, we can easily parse this job into two components: the repetitive and routine one (actually mixing and serving the drinks) and the more interactive, unpredictable one that involves listening to and talking with customers.

After reflecting on characteristics of numerous jobs and professions, two non-routine kinds of work seem to me to be particularly common, and difficult to automate:

First, emotion. Emotion plays an important role in human communication (think about that physician sitting with the family, or that bartender interacting with customers). It is critically involved in virtually all forms of nonverbal communication and in empathy. But more than that, it is also plays a role in helping us to prioritize what we do, for example helping us decide what needs to be attended to right now as opposed to later in the evening. Emotion is not only complex and nuanced, it also interacts with many of our decision processes. The functioning of emotion has proven challenging to understand scientifically (although there has been progress), and is difficult to build into an automated system.

Second, context. Humans can easily take context into account when making decisions or having interactions with others. Context is particularly interesting because it is open ended — for instance, every time there’s a news story, it changes the context (large or small) in which we operate. Moreover, changes in context (e.g., the election of a maverick President) can change not just how factors interact with each other, but can introduce new factors and reconfigure the organization of factors in fundamental ways. This is a problem for machine learning, which operates on data sets that by definition were created previously, in a different context. Thus, taking context into account (as a congenial bartender can do effortlessly) is a challenge for automation.

Our ability to manage and utilize emotion and to take into account the effects of context are key ingredients of critical thinking, creative problem solving, effective communication, adaptive learning, and good judgment. It has proven very difficult to program machines to emulate such human knowledge and skills, and it is not clear when (or whether) today’s fledgling efforts to do so will bear fruit.

And in fact, these are the very skills that employers across industries consistently report seeking in job candidates. For example, in one survey, 93% of employers reported that “a candidate’s demonstrated capacity to think critically, communicate clearly, and solve complex problems is more important than his or her undergraduate major.” In addition, employers seek candidates who have other sorts of “soft skills,” such as being able to learn adaptively, to make good decisions and to work well with others. These sought-after abilities, of course, fit perfectly with the sorts of things that people can do well, but are and will continue to be difficult to automate.

All of this suggests that our educational systems should concentrate not simply on how people interact with technology (e.g., by teaching students to code), but also how they can do the things that technology will not be doing soon. This is a new approach to characterizing the underlying nature of “soft skills,” which are probably misnamed: These are the skills that are hardest to understand and systematize, and the skills that give — and will continue to give —humans an edge over robots.

Read more on Automation or related topics Technology and analytics, Careers, Managing yourself and Business education

SK

Stephen M. Kosslyn is President and CEO of Foundry College; former Chief Academic Officer of the Minerva Schools at KGI, and former John Lindsley Professor, Department Chair, and Dean of Social Science, Harvard University. He’s the author of Building the Intentional University: Minerva and the Future of Higher Education.

https://hbr.org/2019/09/are-you-developing-skills-that-wont-be-automated?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=hbr&utm_source=linkedin&tpcc=orgsocial_edit

Topley’s Top 10 – December 21, 2021

1.Top Weighted Stocks in S&P 500-Performance Since May…AMZN and Facebook Lowest Performers.

www.dorseywright.com


2.Nasdaq 100 Headed for One of the Most Volatile Decembers in 20 Years

Naz 100 Average Daily Moves ..From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading

Santa has packed some Volatility in his bag for Christmas.


3.Global M&A Volume Doubles….$5.63 Trillion.

Reuters

  • Global M&A jumps 63% to $5.63 trillion
  • U.S. dealmaking nearly doubled to $2.61 trillion
  • Europe up 47% to $1.26 trillion, Asia Pacific up 37%
  • Private equity buyouts at record $985.2 bln
  • CEO confidence and cheap financing among key drivers

Global M&A activity smashes all-time records to top $5 trillion in 2021By Anirban Sen and Pamela Barbaglia, Kane Wu https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-ma-activity-smashes-all-time-records-top-5-trillion-2021-2021-12-20/

Found at Crossing Wall Street Blog https://www.crossingwallstreet.com/


4.Marging Debt Post-Covid Spike

And margin debt, after its historic spike? Stock market margin debt in November fell by $17 billion, from the tip of the spike, to a still monstrous $918.6 billion, still up year-over-year by $197 billion, or by 27%, and up from January 2020 by $357 billion, or by 64%, for one doozie of a spike:

https://wolfstreet.com/2021/12/17/stocks-dont-need-more-alarm-bells-theyre-already-clanging-and-jangling-all-over-the-place-but-here-we-are-leverage/


5. Another Covid Stock Favorite….Teladoc Cut in Half and Back to January 2020 Levels

www.stockcharts.com


6.Lumber Spiked 95% in 5 Weeks.

Lumber Prices still well below 2021 Highs

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber

Lumber prices have spiked 95% in 5 weeks as supply issues arise following Canadian floods while demand stays strong

Carla Mozée

  • Lumber prices have nearly doubled over the past five weeks, staying above $1,000 per thousand board feet. 
  • Floods last month in the key lumber export hub of British Columbia have contributed to price gains. 
  • US home building activity also rebounded strongly in November. 

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/lumber-prices-rally-supply-shortages-commodities-markets-demand-housing-2021-12


7.New Research 0.01% of Bitcoin Holders Control 27% of Currency in Circulation.

WSJ-Bitcoin’s ‘One Percent’ Controls Lion’s Share of the Cryptocurrency’s Wealth

New research shows that just 0.01% of bitcoin holders controls 27% of the currency in circulation

The costs of mining bitcoin have become so high that only a small group of enterprise-level firms can afford to do it.

By 

Paul Vigna Follow

It’s good to be the bitcoin 1%. The top bitcoin holders control a greater share of the cryptocurrency than the most affluent American households control in dollars, according to a study by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

The study showed that the top 10,000 bitcoin accounts hold 5 million bitcoins, an equivalent of approximately $232 billion.

With an estimated 114 million people globally holding the cryptocurrency, according to crypto.com, that means that approximately 0.01% of bitcoin holders control 27% of the 19 million bitcoin in circulation.

By comparison, in the U.S., where wealth inequality is at its most extreme in decades, the top 1% of households hold about a third of all wealth, according to the Federal Reserve.

Markets

A pre-markets primer packed with news, trends and ideas. Plus, up-to-the-minute market data.


The study, conducted by finance professors Antoinette Schoar at MIT Sloan School of Management and Igor Makarov at the London School of Economics, for the first time mapped and analyzed every transaction in bitcoin’s more than 13-year history.

The ramifications of that centralization are mainly twofold, the paper argues. First, it makes the entire bitcoin network more susceptible to systemic risk. Second, it means the majority of the gains from the rising price and increased adoption go to a disproportionately small group of investors.

“Despite having been around for 14 years and the hype it has ratcheted up, it’s still the case that it’s a very concentrated ecosystem,” Ms. Schoar said about Bitcoin.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bitcoins-one-percent-controls-lions-share-of-the-cryptocurrencys-wealth-11639996204


8.Inflation Adjusted Wages Negative

When Does Inflation Become a Problem?

Charlie Bilello–@charliebilello  Why is inflation increasingly being viewed as a problem? Workers are starting to notice that the rise in their earnings is failing to keep up with the rise in consumer prices. When real wage growth turns negative as it has today, that translates into a decline in your standard of living.

Powered by YChartshttps://compoundadvisors.com/about


9.3 Reasons Why You Should Buy Property in the Metaverse

For information purposes only…

Nasdaq Kristi Waterworth  The Motley Fool

Investing is a huge give and take between risk and potential reward, but sometimes it feels a little bit more like gambling, especially when you’re reaching into new and uncharted territory. Take, for example, the metaverse. Virtual real estate is the newest buzzworthy investment right now, but it’s not new, nor is it without merit. In fact, if you have the stomach for it, I firmly believe you should be putting some money in well-chosen metaverse real estate.

If you know anything about me, you know I’m a cryptocurrency skeptic and a reasonably cautious investor by nature. I buy stocks in grocery store chains and food manufacturers but also in aerospace and electric vehicles. All of this is stuff that’s reasonably grounded in known quantities and has enough data to provide predictable, long-term outcomes (even if some of the projects are a bit unproven).

So, when I’m telling you to buy real estate in the metaverse, it means something. Maybe it means that my cheese has slid off my cracker entirely, or maybe it means that it’s not as speculative as it looks. There are a number of reasons I think that metaverse properties are where it’s going to be at for investors in the next five years.

Image source: Getty Images.

1. Commercial names are jumping feet-first into the metaverse

Nike (NYSE: NKE) is the latest in a string of big name brands that are stepping into the metaverse (no pun intended). Just this month, it announced a purchase of a company that makes NFT sneakers called RTFKT. Yes, that’s correct. It makes sneakers that only exist in the metaverse.

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Nike wants to make sure that every avatar in the metaverse is wearing Nike shoes, and it’s going to go in big and fast. It’s not waiting to see what other companies are doing because it has a solid understanding of what’s driving these platforms and how it can reap the benefits.

For example, Gucci, a division of Kering, ran a limited promotion this summer where it created a digital version of the Gucci Garden exhibit and gave away and sold metaverse versions of popular bags and other limited-edition items on Roblox (NYSE: RBLX). Items were initially priced between $1.20 to $9 each, but some resold for as much as $4,100 of Robux, demonstrating both a primary market need and a secondary market interest in branded products.

2. Real estate developers are dumping millions into the metaverse

Virtual real estate developer Republic Realm just set a record by purchasing a $4.3 million piece of land in metaverse platform The Sandbox, breaking a record set a week prior by Tokens.com for a $2.5 million purchase of land in Decentraland. That’s some walking-around money.

Given that these companies fully intend to create spaces like virtual malls and other rentable properties (where, for example, Nike might set up shop), and that both gave very serious consideration to how to determine the value of metaverse property, I have a hard time laughing this off as a weird kind of publicity stunt. These guys are serious as cancer — and have the business plans to prove it.

They foresee a world where they can rent storefronts to companies who want to sell merchandise but not maintain any virtual real estate; rent virtual condos to people who want to visit the metaverse but not drop $12,000 on a lot of their own; or even design and build custom homes for celebrities who feel like a metaverse presence is good for their brand image but don’t have the time to muck around with the messy bits.

3. Metaverse real estate isn’t new

Although the hottest platforms in the metaverse are fairly new, they’re far from the earliest examples of people getting into virtual real estate and making an absolute killing. Bloomberg covered Second Life’s first millionaire, Ailin Graef, in 2006. She got in to Second Life early, spent two years building up virtual land holdings and developing custom avatars, and now invests heavily in technology groups with a fortune made in a virtual world.

Just this year, Second Life (started in 2003) reported a GDP equivalent to $600 million and over $80 million in cash outs to creators based on their investments in the community. The Second Life Marketplace offers a wide range of rentals but rarely any real estate for sale. Presumably, owners are making enough on those rentals, even at $4 or $5 a week, that they have no desire to sell. These transactions are largely handled through real estate groups native to the platform.

If a platform that almost no one has heard of from a time before social media has captured the hearts and minds of about 70% of Americans and can continue to bring in this kind of money this long after it debuted, surely a platform that’s been built with all the lessons from Second Life in mind can be just as stable — and potentially at least as profitable.

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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/3-reasons-why-you-should-buy-property-in-the-metaverse


10. 3 Things You Should Know About Every Person You Manage

There is no such thing as a good or a bad personality type. What’s important is understanding the way that someone tackles challenges and sees the world.

 

BY DAVID FINKEL, AUTHOR, ‘THE FREEDOM FORMULA: HOW TO SUCCEED IN BUSINESS WITHOUT SACRIFICING YOUR FAMILY, HEALTH, OR LIFE’@DAVIDFINKEL

A large number of entrepreneurs and business owners start their businesses not because they’re fantastic managers, but because they have the vision and drive to put a new product or service out into the marketplace. Most learn very quickly, however, that the ability to manage and coach their employees is a challenging yet important one and it takes a lot of effort and practice to be proficient at it. Many seek out help from those, like me, who specialize in business coaching for growth. And one of the first things I cover with a new coaching client is the set of three things that I think they should know about every person they manage.

These three things will not only help them get to know their employees better, but will give them the opportunity to meet them where they are in their career journey and help them grow and develop into leaders down the road.

1. Personality Style

There are a number of different “personality assessments” out there, from the Kolbe to Myers-Briggs to the MMPI to the Enneagram, etc. And all personality assessments have their strengths and weaknesses. So find one you’re comfortable with and go with what you know. Keep notes of where your team members fall in the different categories, paying attention to which team members share similar or complementary traits.

There is no such thing as a good or a bad personality type; it is simply the way that they tackle challenges and see the world. Remember, any assessment is simply a quick way to help you better understand and effectively interact with each team member.

2. Areas to Coach Around

The next thing you need to know about your team members has to do with their coachable areas. What are the key strengths this team member brings to the table? What are the areas this person needs to develop in order to progress in his or her career with your company? What areas of deficit are likely always going to be a deficit for this person? Knowing all of this helps you put this person in the right roles and assign them the most appropriate projects.

You want to leverage their strengths, give them opportunities to develop their key skills, and avoid placing them in a role that is one of their likely permanent deficit areas. And this will also help you develop a long-term coaching plan to help them mature as leaders themselves.

3. Performance Enhancers

The last thing you want to know about your team members is how to help them do their very best work. To bring out his or her best performance, consider these questions.

·         What three things do you need to remember to help bring out the best performance in this team member?

·         Does she thrive in novel, challenging roles but get bored with repetitive assignments?

·         Does he need projects that he’s done successfully before or else his anxiety overwhelms his performance?

While there likely could be a dozen or more ideas for each key team member that you can focus on, pick the three most important reminders to yourself to get the best performance from him or her.

Get Inc.’s top posts straight to your inbox. Sign up here and you’ll receive Today’s Must Reads before each day is done.

SEP 14, 2021

The opinions expressed here by Inc.com columnists are their own, n

https://www.inc.com/david-finkel/3-things-you-should-know-about-every-person-you-manage.html?cid=sf01003

Topley’s Top 10 – December 20, 2021

1.Hedge Funds Favorite Longs and Shorts Selling Off Together.

Zerohedge–Laggards: hedge fund concentration

If a stock is either on the “VIP” list, which means that a lot of hedge funds own it, or on the “Most shorted” list, which means that a lot of hedgies hate it – it has performed very poorly lately.

Source: Goldman https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/chaselaggards


2.U.S. Price to Sales Ratio 2x the Rest of World.

From Callum Thomas Chart Storms.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/weekly-sp500-chartstorm-19-december-2021-callum-thomas/?trk=eml-email_series_follow_newsletter_01-hero-1-title_link&midToken=AQFjhnSMpoKQvw&fromEmail=fromEmail&ut=2wihcLZ8jP3G41


3.Investments in Global Blockchains Startups +384% from 2020

WSJ-Globally, investment in blockchain startups in 2021 has shattered all previous records, topping $15 billion so far this year, a 384% increase from total investment in all of 2020, according to CB Insights.

By Christopher Mims https://www.wsj.com/articles/jack-dorsey-and-the-unlikely-revolutionaries-who-want-to-reboot-the-internet-11639803654?mod=itp_wsj&ru=yahoo


4.AAPL is 50% of Berkshire Portfolio

Bespoke Investment Group-Quarter-to-date, Berkshire’s portfolio (as it stood on 9/30/21) would be up 13.9%, and that’s due largely to Apple’s 28.5% gain so far in Q4.  Seven of Berkshire’s twenty largest holdings are in the red so far this quarter, with Charter (CHTR) down the most at 17.2%.

AAPL now makes up almost half of the overall Berkshire equity portfolio (and a quarter of the company’s market cap), which means that Berkshire Hathaway should be correlated to the performance of AAPL. Although the two equities have a semi-strong relationship over the last year with a correlation coefficient of 0.46, the correlation in Q4 has dramatically decreased. Since 9/30, the correlation coefficient is only 0.12, which implies only a very small correlation. Whereas AAPL has traded over 28.5% higher in Q4, BRK/B has only appreciated by about 6.5%. While AAPL shareholders have been rewarded so far in Q4, the stock of one of AAPL’s largest holders has lagged the S&P 500.  \

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/berkshires-apple-aapl-weighting-swells-to-nearly-50


5. History of Last 6 Rate Cycles….Sector Performance.

Materials Best….Tech Lags….Utilities Worst.

https:://Iplresearch.com/2021/12/17/sector-playbook-for-fed-rate-hikes-favors-value


6.2022 Will Tell the Story….How will rising rates affect risk taking? How dependent is risk on negative real rates?

Global Developments: Risk-taking has been supported by extraordinarily accommodative monetary conditions.

The Daily Shot Blog https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-december-17th-2021/


7.The Biggest Companies in the World in 2021

Jenna Ross
The Top 100, Ranked

PwC ranked the largest publicly-traded companies by their market capitalization in U.S. dollars. It’s also worth noting that sector classification is based on the FTSE Russell Industry Classification Benchmark, and a company’s location is based on where its headquarters are located.

Here is the top 100 ranking of the biggest companies in the world, organized from the biggest to the smallest.

Search:

Rank

Company name

Location

Sector

Market Capitalization

1

APPLE INC

🇺🇸 United States

Technology

$2.1T

2

SAUDI ARAMCO

🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia

Energy

$1.9T

3

MICROSOFT CORP

🇺🇸 United States

Technology

$1.8T

4

AMAZON.COM INC

🇺🇸 United States

Consumer Discretionary

$1.6T

5

ALPHABET INC

🇺🇸 United States

Technology

$1.4T

6

FACEBOOK INC

🇺🇸 United States

Technology

$839B

7

TENCENT

🇨🇳 China

Technology

$753B

8

TESLA INC

🇺🇸 United States

Consumer Discretionary

$641B

9

ALIBABA GRP

🇨🇳 China

Consumer Discretionary

$615B

10

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY

🇺🇸 United States

Financials

$588B

A Sector View

Across the 100 biggest companies in the world, some sectors had higher weightings.

Sector

Total Market Cap in Top 100

% of Top 100 Market Cap

Number of Companies in Top 100

Technology

$10.5T

33.0%

20

Consumer Discretionary

$6.0T

18.9%

17

Financials

$3.4T

10.8%

14

Health Care

$3.3T

10.5%

16

Energy

$2.7T

8.5%

5

Consumer Staples

$2.0T

6.4%

9

Industrials

$2.0T

6.4%

9

Telecommunications

$1.3T

4.1%

7

Basic Materials

$0.3T

1.0%

2

Utilities

$0.1T

0.5%

1

Technology had the highest market capitalization and was also the most common sector, with Big Tech dominating the top 10. Companies in the consumer discretionary, financials, and health care sectors also had a strong representation in the ranking.

Despite having only five companies on the list, the energy sector amounted to almost 10% of the top 100’s market capitalization, mostly due to Saudi Aramco’s whopping valuation.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-biggest-companies-in-the-world-in-2021/

From Barry Ritholtz Blog www.ritholtz.com


8.Housing prices are up, home equity is through the roof and mortgage rates have fallen:

by Ben Carlson

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/12/inflation-in-the-housing-market/


9.Artificial intelligence can now predict who will develop DEMENTIA with 92% accuracy, breakthrough study reveals

  • AI can now predict whether someone will develop dementia within two years 
  • Data from 15,300 patients in the US was used to train the artificial intelligence 
  • The technique works by spotting patterns linked to dementia outcome in data
  • It can also be used to detect wrong diagnosis to improve patient outcomes 

By RYAN MORRISON FOR MAILONLINE 

Artificial intelligence systems have been developed to predict whether someone will develop dementia within two years, with 92 per cent accuracy, its developers claim.

Data from 15,300 patients in the US was used to train the AI by researchers from the University of Exeter, teaching it who would and wouldn’t go on to develop dementia. 

The technique works by spotting patterns in the data and learning who is most at risk, with researchers hoping it could cut the number of people wrongly diagnosed. 

 

Artificial intelligence systems have been developed to predict whether someone will develop dementia within two years, with 92 per cent accuracy, its developers claim

WHAT IS DEMENTIA? 

Dementia is an umbrella term used to describe a range of progressive neurological disorders (those affecting the brain) which impact memory, thinking and behaviour. 

There are many different types of dementia, of which Alzheimer’s disease is the most common.

Some people may have a combination of types of dementia.

Regardless of which type is diagnosed, each person will experience their dementia in their own unique way.

Dementia is a global concern but it is most often seen in wealthier countries, where people are likely to live into very old age.

Currently there is no cure for dementia.

But new drugs can slow down its progression and the earlier it is spotted the more effective treatments are.

 Source: Alzheimer’s Society  

Professor David Llewellyn, an Alan Turing fellow based at the University of Exeter, who oversaw the study, said the machine learning algorithm can predict who will develop dementia within two years.

‘We’re also excited to learn that our machine-learning approach was able to identify patients who may have been misdiagnosed,’ he said.

‘This has the potential to reduce the guesswork in clinical practice and significantly improve the diagnostic pathway.’

Prof Llewellyn added that it would help ‘families access the support they need as swiftly and as accurately as possible.’

Between 2005 and 2015, one in 10 attendees (1,568) at a memory clinic received a new diagnosis of dementia within two years of their visit.

The researchers found that around eight per cent (130) of the dementia diagnoses appeared to be made in error, as the diagnosis was subsequently reversed.

According to the study, published in JAMA Network Open, machine-learning models accurately identified more than 80 per cent of these inconsistent diagnoses.

The research suggests AI can not only accurately predict who will be diagnosed with dementia, but has the potential to improve the accuracy of the diagnoses.  

Machine learning works by using patient information routinely available in the clinic, such as memory and brain function, performance on cognitive tests and specific lifestyle factor

The team plans follow-up studies to evaluate the practical use of the machine-learning method in clinics, to assess whether it can be rolled out to improve diagnosis, treatment and care.

The researchers analysed data from people who attended a network of 30 National Alzheimer’s Coordinating Centre memory clinics in the US.

The attendees did not have dementia at the start of the study, though many were experiencing problems with memory or other brain functions.

Dr Janice Ranson, Research Fellow at the University of Exeter, involved in the study, said ‘we know that dementia is a highly feared condition.’ 

 

Data from 15,300 patients in the US was used to train the AI by researchers from the University of Exeter, teaching it who would and wouldn’t go on to develop dementia

‘Embedding machine learning in memory clinics could help ensure diagnosis is far more accurate, reducing the unnecessary distress that a wrong diagnosis could cause,’ she added. 

Dr Rosa Sancho, head of research at Alzheimer’s Research UK, which funded the research, said it has a huge potential for improving disease detection.

He said: ‘Artificial intelligence has huge potential for improving early detection of the diseases that cause dementia and could revolutionise the diagnosis process for people concerned about themselves or a loved one showing symptoms.

‘This technique is a significant improvement over existing alternative approaches and could give doctors a basis for recommending lifestyle changes and identifying people who might benefit from support or in-depth assessments.’

The findings have been published in the journal JAMA Network Open. 

AI systems rely on artificial neural networks (ANNs), which try to simulate the way the brain works in order to learn.

ANNs can be trained to recognise patterns in information – including speech, text data, or visual images – and are the basis for a large number of the developments in AI over recent years.

Conventional AI uses input to ‘teach’ an algorithm about a particular subject by feeding it massive amounts of information.   

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AI systems rely on artificial neural networks (ANNs), which try to simulate the way the brain works in order to learn. ANNs can be trained to recognise patterns in information – including speech, text data, or visual images

Practical applications include Google’s language translation services, Facebook’s facial recognition software and Snapchat’s image altering live filters.

The process of inputting this data can be extremely time consuming, and is limited to one type of knowledge. 

A new breed of ANNs called Adversarial Neural Networks pits the wits of two AI bots against each other, which allows them to learn from each other. 

This approach is designed to speed up the process of learning, as well as refining the output created by AI systems. 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-10317707/AI-accurately-predict-develop-dementia-two-years-study-suggests.html


10. 10 Qualities of a Good Listener

Susan Krauss Whitbourne Ph.D. Psychology Today


These ten qualities fall into the two categories of verbal and nonverbal behaviors and are as follows along with explanations of each: 

Verbal: Showing that you understand what the person is saying.

1.   Reflections: Paraphrase what the other person is saying to show you get the meaning.

2.   Open question: Ask questions that don’t have a simple “yes” or “no” answer to keep the conversation flowing.

3.   Validation: Reinforce what the person is saying by indicating you understand.

4.   Utterances: Use simple words that encourage the other person to keep speaking (e.g., uh-huh, okay).

5.   Use the speaker’s name: help the person feel more valued by repeating their name at various points in the conversation or when you want to show you hear them.

Nonverbal: Behaviors that indicate you’re paying attention.

1.   Facial expressions: Allow your face to convey interest, empathy, and curiosity.

2.   Head nodding: Occasionally nod along with what the person is saying, especially at important points in the conversation.

3.   Body posture: Orient your position to show you’re paying attention by allowing your body to turn towards the other person.

4.   Gaze: Maintain eye contact with the speaker and don’t look distractedly elsewhere.

5.   Silence: Stay quiet and don’t interrupt the other person or seem too eager to break in.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/fulfillment-any-age/202112/10-ways-become-great-listener