Topley’s Top 10 – December 21, 2021

1.Top Weighted Stocks in S&P 500-Performance Since May…AMZN and Facebook Lowest Performers.

www.dorseywright.com


2.Nasdaq 100 Headed for One of the Most Volatile Decembers in 20 Years

Naz 100 Average Daily Moves ..From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading

Santa has packed some Volatility in his bag for Christmas.


3.Global M&A Volume Doubles….$5.63 Trillion.

Reuters

  • Global M&A jumps 63% to $5.63 trillion
  • U.S. dealmaking nearly doubled to $2.61 trillion
  • Europe up 47% to $1.26 trillion, Asia Pacific up 37%
  • Private equity buyouts at record $985.2 bln
  • CEO confidence and cheap financing among key drivers

Global M&A activity smashes all-time records to top $5 trillion in 2021By Anirban Sen and Pamela Barbaglia, Kane Wu https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-ma-activity-smashes-all-time-records-top-5-trillion-2021-2021-12-20/

Found at Crossing Wall Street Blog https://www.crossingwallstreet.com/


4.Marging Debt Post-Covid Spike

And margin debt, after its historic spike? Stock market margin debt in November fell by $17 billion, from the tip of the spike, to a still monstrous $918.6 billion, still up year-over-year by $197 billion, or by 27%, and up from January 2020 by $357 billion, or by 64%, for one doozie of a spike:

https://wolfstreet.com/2021/12/17/stocks-dont-need-more-alarm-bells-theyre-already-clanging-and-jangling-all-over-the-place-but-here-we-are-leverage/


5. Another Covid Stock Favorite….Teladoc Cut in Half and Back to January 2020 Levels

www.stockcharts.com


6.Lumber Spiked 95% in 5 Weeks.

Lumber Prices still well below 2021 Highs

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber

Lumber prices have spiked 95% in 5 weeks as supply issues arise following Canadian floods while demand stays strong

Carla Mozée

  • Lumber prices have nearly doubled over the past five weeks, staying above $1,000 per thousand board feet. 
  • Floods last month in the key lumber export hub of British Columbia have contributed to price gains. 
  • US home building activity also rebounded strongly in November. 

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/lumber-prices-rally-supply-shortages-commodities-markets-demand-housing-2021-12


7.New Research 0.01% of Bitcoin Holders Control 27% of Currency in Circulation.

WSJ-Bitcoin’s ‘One Percent’ Controls Lion’s Share of the Cryptocurrency’s Wealth

New research shows that just 0.01% of bitcoin holders controls 27% of the currency in circulation

The costs of mining bitcoin have become so high that only a small group of enterprise-level firms can afford to do it.

By 

Paul Vigna Follow

It’s good to be the bitcoin 1%. The top bitcoin holders control a greater share of the cryptocurrency than the most affluent American households control in dollars, according to a study by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

The study showed that the top 10,000 bitcoin accounts hold 5 million bitcoins, an equivalent of approximately $232 billion.

With an estimated 114 million people globally holding the cryptocurrency, according to crypto.com, that means that approximately 0.01% of bitcoin holders control 27% of the 19 million bitcoin in circulation.

By comparison, in the U.S., where wealth inequality is at its most extreme in decades, the top 1% of households hold about a third of all wealth, according to the Federal Reserve.

Markets

A pre-markets primer packed with news, trends and ideas. Plus, up-to-the-minute market data.


The study, conducted by finance professors Antoinette Schoar at MIT Sloan School of Management and Igor Makarov at the London School of Economics, for the first time mapped and analyzed every transaction in bitcoin’s more than 13-year history.

The ramifications of that centralization are mainly twofold, the paper argues. First, it makes the entire bitcoin network more susceptible to systemic risk. Second, it means the majority of the gains from the rising price and increased adoption go to a disproportionately small group of investors.

“Despite having been around for 14 years and the hype it has ratcheted up, it’s still the case that it’s a very concentrated ecosystem,” Ms. Schoar said about Bitcoin.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bitcoins-one-percent-controls-lions-share-of-the-cryptocurrencys-wealth-11639996204


8.Inflation Adjusted Wages Negative

When Does Inflation Become a Problem?

Charlie Bilello–@charliebilello  Why is inflation increasingly being viewed as a problem? Workers are starting to notice that the rise in their earnings is failing to keep up with the rise in consumer prices. When real wage growth turns negative as it has today, that translates into a decline in your standard of living.

Powered by YChartshttps://compoundadvisors.com/about


9.3 Reasons Why You Should Buy Property in the Metaverse

For information purposes only…

Nasdaq Kristi Waterworth  The Motley Fool

Investing is a huge give and take between risk and potential reward, but sometimes it feels a little bit more like gambling, especially when you’re reaching into new and uncharted territory. Take, for example, the metaverse. Virtual real estate is the newest buzzworthy investment right now, but it’s not new, nor is it without merit. In fact, if you have the stomach for it, I firmly believe you should be putting some money in well-chosen metaverse real estate.

If you know anything about me, you know I’m a cryptocurrency skeptic and a reasonably cautious investor by nature. I buy stocks in grocery store chains and food manufacturers but also in aerospace and electric vehicles. All of this is stuff that’s reasonably grounded in known quantities and has enough data to provide predictable, long-term outcomes (even if some of the projects are a bit unproven).

So, when I’m telling you to buy real estate in the metaverse, it means something. Maybe it means that my cheese has slid off my cracker entirely, or maybe it means that it’s not as speculative as it looks. There are a number of reasons I think that metaverse properties are where it’s going to be at for investors in the next five years.

Image source: Getty Images.

1. Commercial names are jumping feet-first into the metaverse

Nike (NYSE: NKE) is the latest in a string of big name brands that are stepping into the metaverse (no pun intended). Just this month, it announced a purchase of a company that makes NFT sneakers called RTFKT. Yes, that’s correct. It makes sneakers that only exist in the metaverse.

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Nike wants to make sure that every avatar in the metaverse is wearing Nike shoes, and it’s going to go in big and fast. It’s not waiting to see what other companies are doing because it has a solid understanding of what’s driving these platforms and how it can reap the benefits.

For example, Gucci, a division of Kering, ran a limited promotion this summer where it created a digital version of the Gucci Garden exhibit and gave away and sold metaverse versions of popular bags and other limited-edition items on Roblox (NYSE: RBLX). Items were initially priced between $1.20 to $9 each, but some resold for as much as $4,100 of Robux, demonstrating both a primary market need and a secondary market interest in branded products.

2. Real estate developers are dumping millions into the metaverse

Virtual real estate developer Republic Realm just set a record by purchasing a $4.3 million piece of land in metaverse platform The Sandbox, breaking a record set a week prior by Tokens.com for a $2.5 million purchase of land in Decentraland. That’s some walking-around money.

Given that these companies fully intend to create spaces like virtual malls and other rentable properties (where, for example, Nike might set up shop), and that both gave very serious consideration to how to determine the value of metaverse property, I have a hard time laughing this off as a weird kind of publicity stunt. These guys are serious as cancer — and have the business plans to prove it.

They foresee a world where they can rent storefronts to companies who want to sell merchandise but not maintain any virtual real estate; rent virtual condos to people who want to visit the metaverse but not drop $12,000 on a lot of their own; or even design and build custom homes for celebrities who feel like a metaverse presence is good for their brand image but don’t have the time to muck around with the messy bits.

3. Metaverse real estate isn’t new

Although the hottest platforms in the metaverse are fairly new, they’re far from the earliest examples of people getting into virtual real estate and making an absolute killing. Bloomberg covered Second Life’s first millionaire, Ailin Graef, in 2006. She got in to Second Life early, spent two years building up virtual land holdings and developing custom avatars, and now invests heavily in technology groups with a fortune made in a virtual world.

Just this year, Second Life (started in 2003) reported a GDP equivalent to $600 million and over $80 million in cash outs to creators based on their investments in the community. The Second Life Marketplace offers a wide range of rentals but rarely any real estate for sale. Presumably, owners are making enough on those rentals, even at $4 or $5 a week, that they have no desire to sell. These transactions are largely handled through real estate groups native to the platform.

If a platform that almost no one has heard of from a time before social media has captured the hearts and minds of about 70% of Americans and can continue to bring in this kind of money this long after it debuted, surely a platform that’s been built with all the lessons from Second Life in mind can be just as stable — and potentially at least as profitable.

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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/3-reasons-why-you-should-buy-property-in-the-metaverse


10. 3 Things You Should Know About Every Person You Manage

There is no such thing as a good or a bad personality type. What’s important is understanding the way that someone tackles challenges and sees the world.

 

BY DAVID FINKEL, AUTHOR, ‘THE FREEDOM FORMULA: HOW TO SUCCEED IN BUSINESS WITHOUT SACRIFICING YOUR FAMILY, HEALTH, OR LIFE’@DAVIDFINKEL

A large number of entrepreneurs and business owners start their businesses not because they’re fantastic managers, but because they have the vision and drive to put a new product or service out into the marketplace. Most learn very quickly, however, that the ability to manage and coach their employees is a challenging yet important one and it takes a lot of effort and practice to be proficient at it. Many seek out help from those, like me, who specialize in business coaching for growth. And one of the first things I cover with a new coaching client is the set of three things that I think they should know about every person they manage.

These three things will not only help them get to know their employees better, but will give them the opportunity to meet them where they are in their career journey and help them grow and develop into leaders down the road.

1. Personality Style

There are a number of different “personality assessments” out there, from the Kolbe to Myers-Briggs to the MMPI to the Enneagram, etc. And all personality assessments have their strengths and weaknesses. So find one you’re comfortable with and go with what you know. Keep notes of where your team members fall in the different categories, paying attention to which team members share similar or complementary traits.

There is no such thing as a good or a bad personality type; it is simply the way that they tackle challenges and see the world. Remember, any assessment is simply a quick way to help you better understand and effectively interact with each team member.

2. Areas to Coach Around

The next thing you need to know about your team members has to do with their coachable areas. What are the key strengths this team member brings to the table? What are the areas this person needs to develop in order to progress in his or her career with your company? What areas of deficit are likely always going to be a deficit for this person? Knowing all of this helps you put this person in the right roles and assign them the most appropriate projects.

You want to leverage their strengths, give them opportunities to develop their key skills, and avoid placing them in a role that is one of their likely permanent deficit areas. And this will also help you develop a long-term coaching plan to help them mature as leaders themselves.

3. Performance Enhancers

The last thing you want to know about your team members is how to help them do their very best work. To bring out his or her best performance, consider these questions.

·         What three things do you need to remember to help bring out the best performance in this team member?

·         Does she thrive in novel, challenging roles but get bored with repetitive assignments?

·         Does he need projects that he’s done successfully before or else his anxiety overwhelms his performance?

While there likely could be a dozen or more ideas for each key team member that you can focus on, pick the three most important reminders to yourself to get the best performance from him or her.

Get Inc.’s top posts straight to your inbox. Sign up here and you’ll receive Today’s Must Reads before each day is done.

SEP 14, 2021

The opinions expressed here by Inc.com columnists are their own, n

https://www.inc.com/david-finkel/3-things-you-should-know-about-every-person-you-manage.html?cid=sf01003

Topley’s Top 10 – December 20, 2021

1.Hedge Funds Favorite Longs and Shorts Selling Off Together.

Zerohedge–Laggards: hedge fund concentration

If a stock is either on the “VIP” list, which means that a lot of hedge funds own it, or on the “Most shorted” list, which means that a lot of hedgies hate it – it has performed very poorly lately.

Source: Goldman https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/chaselaggards


2.U.S. Price to Sales Ratio 2x the Rest of World.

From Callum Thomas Chart Storms.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/weekly-sp500-chartstorm-19-december-2021-callum-thomas/?trk=eml-email_series_follow_newsletter_01-hero-1-title_link&midToken=AQFjhnSMpoKQvw&fromEmail=fromEmail&ut=2wihcLZ8jP3G41


3.Investments in Global Blockchains Startups +384% from 2020

WSJ-Globally, investment in blockchain startups in 2021 has shattered all previous records, topping $15 billion so far this year, a 384% increase from total investment in all of 2020, according to CB Insights.

By Christopher Mims https://www.wsj.com/articles/jack-dorsey-and-the-unlikely-revolutionaries-who-want-to-reboot-the-internet-11639803654?mod=itp_wsj&ru=yahoo


4.AAPL is 50% of Berkshire Portfolio

Bespoke Investment Group-Quarter-to-date, Berkshire’s portfolio (as it stood on 9/30/21) would be up 13.9%, and that’s due largely to Apple’s 28.5% gain so far in Q4.  Seven of Berkshire’s twenty largest holdings are in the red so far this quarter, with Charter (CHTR) down the most at 17.2%.

AAPL now makes up almost half of the overall Berkshire equity portfolio (and a quarter of the company’s market cap), which means that Berkshire Hathaway should be correlated to the performance of AAPL. Although the two equities have a semi-strong relationship over the last year with a correlation coefficient of 0.46, the correlation in Q4 has dramatically decreased. Since 9/30, the correlation coefficient is only 0.12, which implies only a very small correlation. Whereas AAPL has traded over 28.5% higher in Q4, BRK/B has only appreciated by about 6.5%. While AAPL shareholders have been rewarded so far in Q4, the stock of one of AAPL’s largest holders has lagged the S&P 500.  \

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/berkshires-apple-aapl-weighting-swells-to-nearly-50


5. History of Last 6 Rate Cycles….Sector Performance.

Materials Best….Tech Lags….Utilities Worst.

https:://Iplresearch.com/2021/12/17/sector-playbook-for-fed-rate-hikes-favors-value


6.2022 Will Tell the Story….How will rising rates affect risk taking? How dependent is risk on negative real rates?

Global Developments: Risk-taking has been supported by extraordinarily accommodative monetary conditions.

The Daily Shot Blog https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-december-17th-2021/


7.The Biggest Companies in the World in 2021

Jenna Ross
The Top 100, Ranked

PwC ranked the largest publicly-traded companies by their market capitalization in U.S. dollars. It’s also worth noting that sector classification is based on the FTSE Russell Industry Classification Benchmark, and a company’s location is based on where its headquarters are located.

Here is the top 100 ranking of the biggest companies in the world, organized from the biggest to the smallest.

Search:

Rank

Company name

Location

Sector

Market Capitalization

1

APPLE INC

🇺🇸 United States

Technology

$2.1T

2

SAUDI ARAMCO

🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia

Energy

$1.9T

3

MICROSOFT CORP

🇺🇸 United States

Technology

$1.8T

4

AMAZON.COM INC

🇺🇸 United States

Consumer Discretionary

$1.6T

5

ALPHABET INC

🇺🇸 United States

Technology

$1.4T

6

FACEBOOK INC

🇺🇸 United States

Technology

$839B

7

TENCENT

🇨🇳 China

Technology

$753B

8

TESLA INC

🇺🇸 United States

Consumer Discretionary

$641B

9

ALIBABA GRP

🇨🇳 China

Consumer Discretionary

$615B

10

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY

🇺🇸 United States

Financials

$588B

A Sector View

Across the 100 biggest companies in the world, some sectors had higher weightings.

Sector

Total Market Cap in Top 100

% of Top 100 Market Cap

Number of Companies in Top 100

Technology

$10.5T

33.0%

20

Consumer Discretionary

$6.0T

18.9%

17

Financials

$3.4T

10.8%

14

Health Care

$3.3T

10.5%

16

Energy

$2.7T

8.5%

5

Consumer Staples

$2.0T

6.4%

9

Industrials

$2.0T

6.4%

9

Telecommunications

$1.3T

4.1%

7

Basic Materials

$0.3T

1.0%

2

Utilities

$0.1T

0.5%

1

Technology had the highest market capitalization and was also the most common sector, with Big Tech dominating the top 10. Companies in the consumer discretionary, financials, and health care sectors also had a strong representation in the ranking.

Despite having only five companies on the list, the energy sector amounted to almost 10% of the top 100’s market capitalization, mostly due to Saudi Aramco’s whopping valuation.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-biggest-companies-in-the-world-in-2021/

From Barry Ritholtz Blog www.ritholtz.com


8.Housing prices are up, home equity is through the roof and mortgage rates have fallen:

by Ben Carlson

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/12/inflation-in-the-housing-market/


9.Artificial intelligence can now predict who will develop DEMENTIA with 92% accuracy, breakthrough study reveals

  • AI can now predict whether someone will develop dementia within two years 
  • Data from 15,300 patients in the US was used to train the artificial intelligence 
  • The technique works by spotting patterns linked to dementia outcome in data
  • It can also be used to detect wrong diagnosis to improve patient outcomes 

By RYAN MORRISON FOR MAILONLINE 

Artificial intelligence systems have been developed to predict whether someone will develop dementia within two years, with 92 per cent accuracy, its developers claim.

Data from 15,300 patients in the US was used to train the AI by researchers from the University of Exeter, teaching it who would and wouldn’t go on to develop dementia. 

The technique works by spotting patterns in the data and learning who is most at risk, with researchers hoping it could cut the number of people wrongly diagnosed. 

 

Artificial intelligence systems have been developed to predict whether someone will develop dementia within two years, with 92 per cent accuracy, its developers claim

WHAT IS DEMENTIA? 

Dementia is an umbrella term used to describe a range of progressive neurological disorders (those affecting the brain) which impact memory, thinking and behaviour. 

There are many different types of dementia, of which Alzheimer’s disease is the most common.

Some people may have a combination of types of dementia.

Regardless of which type is diagnosed, each person will experience their dementia in their own unique way.

Dementia is a global concern but it is most often seen in wealthier countries, where people are likely to live into very old age.

Currently there is no cure for dementia.

But new drugs can slow down its progression and the earlier it is spotted the more effective treatments are.

 Source: Alzheimer’s Society  

Professor David Llewellyn, an Alan Turing fellow based at the University of Exeter, who oversaw the study, said the machine learning algorithm can predict who will develop dementia within two years.

‘We’re also excited to learn that our machine-learning approach was able to identify patients who may have been misdiagnosed,’ he said.

‘This has the potential to reduce the guesswork in clinical practice and significantly improve the diagnostic pathway.’

Prof Llewellyn added that it would help ‘families access the support they need as swiftly and as accurately as possible.’

Between 2005 and 2015, one in 10 attendees (1,568) at a memory clinic received a new diagnosis of dementia within two years of their visit.

The researchers found that around eight per cent (130) of the dementia diagnoses appeared to be made in error, as the diagnosis was subsequently reversed.

According to the study, published in JAMA Network Open, machine-learning models accurately identified more than 80 per cent of these inconsistent diagnoses.

The research suggests AI can not only accurately predict who will be diagnosed with dementia, but has the potential to improve the accuracy of the diagnoses.  

Machine learning works by using patient information routinely available in the clinic, such as memory and brain function, performance on cognitive tests and specific lifestyle factor

The team plans follow-up studies to evaluate the practical use of the machine-learning method in clinics, to assess whether it can be rolled out to improve diagnosis, treatment and care.

The researchers analysed data from people who attended a network of 30 National Alzheimer’s Coordinating Centre memory clinics in the US.

The attendees did not have dementia at the start of the study, though many were experiencing problems with memory or other brain functions.

Dr Janice Ranson, Research Fellow at the University of Exeter, involved in the study, said ‘we know that dementia is a highly feared condition.’ 

 

Data from 15,300 patients in the US was used to train the AI by researchers from the University of Exeter, teaching it who would and wouldn’t go on to develop dementia

‘Embedding machine learning in memory clinics could help ensure diagnosis is far more accurate, reducing the unnecessary distress that a wrong diagnosis could cause,’ she added. 

Dr Rosa Sancho, head of research at Alzheimer’s Research UK, which funded the research, said it has a huge potential for improving disease detection.

He said: ‘Artificial intelligence has huge potential for improving early detection of the diseases that cause dementia and could revolutionise the diagnosis process for people concerned about themselves or a loved one showing symptoms.

‘This technique is a significant improvement over existing alternative approaches and could give doctors a basis for recommending lifestyle changes and identifying people who might benefit from support or in-depth assessments.’

The findings have been published in the journal JAMA Network Open. 

AI systems rely on artificial neural networks (ANNs), which try to simulate the way the brain works in order to learn.

ANNs can be trained to recognise patterns in information – including speech, text data, or visual images – and are the basis for a large number of the developments in AI over recent years.

Conventional AI uses input to ‘teach’ an algorithm about a particular subject by feeding it massive amounts of information.   

  •  

AI systems rely on artificial neural networks (ANNs), which try to simulate the way the brain works in order to learn. ANNs can be trained to recognise patterns in information – including speech, text data, or visual images

Practical applications include Google’s language translation services, Facebook’s facial recognition software and Snapchat’s image altering live filters.

The process of inputting this data can be extremely time consuming, and is limited to one type of knowledge. 

A new breed of ANNs called Adversarial Neural Networks pits the wits of two AI bots against each other, which allows them to learn from each other. 

This approach is designed to speed up the process of learning, as well as refining the output created by AI systems. 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-10317707/AI-accurately-predict-develop-dementia-two-years-study-suggests.html


10. 10 Qualities of a Good Listener

Susan Krauss Whitbourne Ph.D. Psychology Today


These ten qualities fall into the two categories of verbal and nonverbal behaviors and are as follows along with explanations of each: 

Verbal: Showing that you understand what the person is saying.

1.   Reflections: Paraphrase what the other person is saying to show you get the meaning.

2.   Open question: Ask questions that don’t have a simple “yes” or “no” answer to keep the conversation flowing.

3.   Validation: Reinforce what the person is saying by indicating you understand.

4.   Utterances: Use simple words that encourage the other person to keep speaking (e.g., uh-huh, okay).

5.   Use the speaker’s name: help the person feel more valued by repeating their name at various points in the conversation or when you want to show you hear them.

Nonverbal: Behaviors that indicate you’re paying attention.

1.   Facial expressions: Allow your face to convey interest, empathy, and curiosity.

2.   Head nodding: Occasionally nod along with what the person is saying, especially at important points in the conversation.

3.   Body posture: Orient your position to show you’re paying attention by allowing your body to turn towards the other person.

4.   Gaze: Maintain eye contact with the speaker and don’t look distractedly elsewhere.

5.   Silence: Stay quiet and don’t interrupt the other person or seem too eager to break in.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/fulfillment-any-age/202112/10-ways-become-great-listener

Topley’s Top 10 – December 15, 2021

1.Bonds Worst Inflation Adjusted Returns Since 1980

The federal government’s debt has already lost about 2% outright over the past year as the Federal Reserve started removing pandemic-era stimulus from the economy and inched closer toward raising interest rates. But on top of that, the consumer price index has surged 6.8%, putting investors even deeper in the hole.

Taken together, that’s resulting in the worst real returns — or those adjusted for inflation — since the early 1980s, when then Fed Chair Paul Volcker was in the midst of fighting a wage-price spiral. What’s more, the dynamic isn’t expected to change: The bond market is projecting that 10-year Treasury yields will hold below the inflation rate for the next decade, meaning any investment income will be more than wiped out by the rising cost of living.

Bond Traders Stare at Worst Real Returns Since Volcker Era

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-13/bond-traders-stare-at-worst-real-returns-since-paul-volcker-era?sref=GGda9y2L

2.Charts from 2 Big Insider Sales TSLA and MSFT

Musk Sold Shares….Tesla clean close below 200 day after failing to make new highs.

Microsoft CEO sold large stake-Fails to make new high approaching 50 day.

www.stockcharts.com

3.Hong Kong Market Trading Below Book Value.

Hong Kong’s main stock benchmark is trading below book value. Yup, the entire index. @DavidInglesTV

https://twitter.com/DavidInglesTV

4.Fund Managers at 5.1% Cash….10 Year High

Fund managers dashed for cash in anticipation of more aggressive Federal Reserve policy, according to the latest survey conducted by Bank of America.

The allocation to cash rose to 5.1% in December from 4.4% in November, the survey of 371 panellists running $1.1 trillion in assets under management found. The survey was conducted between Dec. 3 and 9.

Fund managers dash for cash ahead of Fed decision https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fund-managers-dash-for-cash-ahead-of-fed-decision-11639485080?mod=bnbh_mwarticle&link=sfmw_tw

5.AAPL, MSFT, NVDA,TSLA, GOOGL Have Contributed 51% of S&P Returns Since April

Goldman Rings The Alarm On Collapsing Market Breadth: 51% Of All Market Gains Since April Are From Just 5 Stocks-BY TYLER DURDEN Goldman then calculates that just the five most popular tech names – AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, GOOGL – have contributed 51% of S&P 500 returns since April. After contributing over double their starting weight to the index’s return, these stocks now make up 22% of the S&P 500 by market cap, a 4% increase from the start of the year.

Outside of these 5, the table below shows the 25 S&P 500 stocks that made the largest absolute contributions to the index YTD.

Good Full Read Below

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-rings-alarm-collapsing-market-breadth-51-all-market-gains-april-are-just-5-stocks

6.It’s 5 Tech Stocks and Defensive Consumer Staples Leading Since November

Chart-Consumer Staples Breaking Out vs. S&P…..Megacap tech and consumer staples lead.

https://lplresearch.com/2021/12/14/record-high-for-the-consumer-staples-sector/

7.Lithium Benchmark +240% YTD

WSJ–By Amrith Ramkumar

https://www.wsj.com/articles/lithium-prices-soar-turbocharged-by-electric-vehicle-demand-and-scant-supply-11639334956?mod=itp_wsj&ru=yahoo

8.Population Growth of Prime Age Workers is Set to Slow thru 2025

John Burns Real Estate-Today’s labor shortage was perfectly predictable.
So is tomorrow’s labor shortage.
Immigration policy can move the needle, but the growth of the 80s, 90s and early 2000s will almost certainly not return.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/johnburns7/

9.Omicron 3% of Cases in U.S. Last Week.

Barrons

https://www.barrons.com

10.How to turn the 2 fears that most often lead to failure into strengths, according to a successful entrepreneur

Daniel Cáceres and Nathan Rennolds ,

There are ways to turn your fears into motivation. PeopleImages/Getty Images

  • Fear is natural. It often just means you’re stepping out of your comfort zone.
  • If you let it to get the better of you, though, it can stop you getting ahead — in and out of work.
  • The founder of a professional development program, Raul Villacis, gave his tips to beat two fears.

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Fear is a natural way of telling you that you’re leaving your comfort zone and you should pay more attention to what you’re doing.

It can become a major problem, however, if it starts to dominate your mind — it can lead you to make bad decisions, both in daily life and at work.

You may find that you’re too afraid to ask for a raise or that you’re too scared to start the business you’ve always dreamed of starting.

In situations like this, fear causes you to fail. Fortunately, there are ways to turn your fears into motivation.

Raul Villacis, entrepreneur, investor, and motivational speaker, explained in a video for Entrepreneur the two most dangerous types of fear in the workplace and how to use them as motivation.

Fear of not being good enough

The first fear is the fear of not being good enough. Villacis explained that this fear stems from our ancestors, who had to hunt for their survival.

“The fear that if they were not good hunters, they would die,” he said.

That same fear still exists today, even though we no longer have to go out and hunt for our food.

Overcoming this fear is all about understanding that you’re working towards a better future.

“Yes you’re going to mess up, yes you’re not going to be perfect, but at the same time find the edge, meaning can you create progress every day?” Villacis said.

“Your job is not to be the best today. Your job is to create progress,” he added.

Fear of not being liked

The second fear that can harm your career is the fear of not being liked.

The good news is that this fear can motivate you to be a good person or a good worker.

However, it’s also easy to fall into the trap of constantly seeking appreciation, and this will always leave you feeling that you’re not good enough.

According to Villacis, the trick here is to understand that the most important thing is that you like yourself.

“The most important person that you have to be one with, that you have to love, is yourself,” he said.

The key is to truly realize and accept one thing.

“I am not perfect. But I am a work in progress,” he said.

for the virtual world

Read the original article on Business Insider España. Copyright 2021.

This post has been translated from Spanish.

Follow Business Insider España on Twitter.https://www.businessinsider.com/two-fears-that-can-make-you-fail-in-your-job-2021-12

Topley’s Top 10 – December 14, 2021

1.Probability of 3 Rate Hikes in 2022-96%

https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-december-10th-2021/


2.Small Cap Russell 2000

Small caps below 200day…held support here 4x since Summer.

www.stockcharts.com


3.Elon Musk Person of the Year..Jeff Bezos Won in 1999

@donnelly_brent

https://twitter.com/donnelly_brent


4.Highly valued S&P 500 index is ‘near the top of its 85-year trend channel,’ says Deutsche Bank

MarketwatchChristine Idzelis

www.marketwatch.com


5.Follow Up to Yesterday’s Top 5 Stocks……NASDAQ WOULD HAVE FALLEN OVER 20% IN 2021 WITHOUT ITS 5 BIGGEST STOCKS!

Jonathan Baird–Only the most casual investors will be unaware that the gains accrued by U.S. equity markets in recent years have been driven by a small number of stocks that continues to diminish in size.
While the S&P 500 is typically the subject of the most discussion, consideration of the Nasdaq index is important because its behaviour tends to lead other markets in both bull and bear markets. It is for this reason that the accompanying chart should raise eyebrows.

The 5 biggest weightings (sic 5) have produced more than 100% of the appreciation seen by the Nasdaq thus far in 2021. Without the fabled 5, the Nasdaq would be down more than 20%!

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathanbaird88/


6.The Big Positive is Still Earnings….Positive Revisions Beating Negative

Liz Ann Sonders Schwab

https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/moving-stereo-churn-and-rotations-causing-swings-sentiment


7.Growth in Uses of Cash by Public Companies….Buybacks +194%

Sober Look Blog–The Carlyle Group summarizes the use of corporate cash in Chart 5. Since 2009, share buybacks have increased at enormous rate of 194% ; dividends have grown by 67%; and, business investment expanded a modest 43%. Rewarding shareholders with higher dividends and propping up share prices at the expense of investment in new plant, equipment and technology is a serious misallocation of resources at a time when the economy is experiencing slow growth and very poor productivity performance. It also represents serious short-sightedness on the part of management who feel so beholden to shareholders that they risk the longer term health of their companies.

http://soberlook.com/


8.Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

Kate Marino-For all the hype that wage growth has received this year, pay isn’t keeping up with price growth. Real earnings, or wage growth less inflation, turned sharply negative the last two months, after eeking out gains over the summer, consumer price data out Friday show.

Why it matters: That’s an erosion of spending power, which is a bummer. But for time being, it takes the edge off worries of a wage-price spiral, which happens when higher wages fuel inflation, which fuels the need for even higher wages — and so on.

  • The most recent data, of course, doesn’t tell us where we’re headed. “But you can try to extrapolate based on trends … and it seems like this fear of a wage-price spiral might not play out if wages aren’t actually keeping up with inflation,” Megan Greene, chief economist at the Kroll Institute and senior fellow at Harvard Kennedy School, tells Axios.

The big picture: Wage growth and price inflation are closely intertwined, but like the proverbial chicken and egg, experts have different views on what causes what.

  • Up to a certain point, wage growth is generally viewed as a good thing, especially when it flows to workers on the lower end of the income spectrum.
  • But corporate leaders and investors often view strong wage growth as a risk to company profits and, in times like this, a driver of inflation.
  • “It’s hard to know what’s leading and what’s lagging in that scenario,” Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at BMO Wealth Management, tells Axios.

The bottom line: A seemingly tight labor market means workers have power to demand pay increases — and there’s no reason they shouldn’t try to grab their piece of the pie.

  • If wages make gains in keeping up with inflation, we’ll probably argue about the chicken and egg regardless.

https://www.axios.com/wages-inflation-economic-data-c912afdb-b950-4183-8283-50afff593576.html


9.16% of Americans Have Earned Money in Gig Economy.

Pew Research

https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2021/12/08/the-state-og-gig-work-in-2021/pi_2021-12-08_gig-work_0-01


10.Make Learning a Part of Your Daily Routine

by

Summary.   In our increasingly “squiggly” careers, where people change roles more frequently and fluidly and develop in different directions, the ability to unlearn, learn, and relearn is vital for long-term success. It helps us increase our readiness for the opportunities that change…more

Our capacity for learning is becoming the currency we trade on in our careers. Where we once went to work to learn to do a job, learning now is the job. Adaptive and proactive learners are highly prized assets for organizations, and when we invest in our learning, we create long-term dividends for our career development.

Reid Hoffman, the founder of LinkedIn, shared that when assessing founders of potential investments, he looks for individuals who have an “infinite learning curve”: someone who is constantly learning, and quickly. Satya Nadella, the CEO of Microsoft, echoed the importance of learning when he said, “The learn-it-all will always do better than the know-it all.”

However, it’s not as simple as acquiring new knowledge. In our increasingly “squiggly” careers, where people change roles more frequently and fluidly and develop in different directions, the ability to unlearn, learn, and relearn is vital for long-term success. Based on our experience designing and delivering career development training for over 50,000 people worldwide, working with organizations including Virgin, Unilever, and Microsoft, we’ve identified several techniques and tools to help you make learning part of your day-to-day development.  

Learning

Since we spend so much of our time, energy, and efforts at our day jobs, they provide the most significant opportunities for learning. The challenge is that we don’t invest intentionally in everyday development — we’re so busy with tasks and getting the job done that there’s no space left for anything else. Deprioritizing our development is a risky career strategy because it reduces our resilience and ability to respond to the changes happening around us. Here are three ways to take ownership of your learning at work.

Learn from others

The people you spend time with are a significant source of knowledge. Creating a diverse learning community will offer you new perspectives and reduce the risk that you’ll end up in an echo chamber. Set a goal of having one curiosity coffee each month, virtually or in person, with someone you haven’t met before. This could be someone in a different department who could help you view your organization through a new lens or someone in your profession at another company who could broaden your knowledge. You can extend your curiosity even further by ending each conversation with the question: “Is there anyone else you think it would be useful for me to connect with?” Not only does this create the chance for new connections, but you might also benefit from a direct introduction.

Experiment

Experiments help you test, learn, and adapt along the way. There are endless ways you can experiment at work — for example, using different tools to increase the interactivity of your virtual presentationsexploring the impact of camera-on versus camera-off meetingsswitching from video to phone calls, or even trying out new negotiation tactics.

For an experiment to be effective, it needs to be a conscious choice and labeled as an opportunity for learning. Keep a learn-it-all log where you track the experiments you’re running and what you’re learning along the way. It’s important to remember that you should expect some experiments to fail, as that’s the nature of exploring the unknown.

Create a collective curriculum

In a squiggly career, everyone’s a learner and everyone’s a teacher. As a team, consider how you can create a collective curriculum where you’re learning from and with each other. We’ve seen organizations effectively use skills swaps where individuals share one skill they’re happy to help other people learn. This could look like a creative problem-solver offering to share the processes and tools they find most helpful, or someone who has expertise in coding running beginner lunch-and-learn sessions. Skills swaps are a good example of democratized development where everyone has something to contribute and is learning continually.

Unlearning

Unlearning means letting go of the safe and familiar and replacing it with something new and unknown. Skills and behaviors that helped you get to where you are can actually hold you back from getting to where you want to be. For example, a leader might need to unlearn their default of always being the person who speaks first in meetings. Or a new manager might need to unlearn always saying “yes” as their workload increases.

During the pandemic, we were all forced to unlearn some aspects of our lives, like how we collaborated on work or what school looked like for our kids. Unlearning feels uncomfortable, but the past couple of years have reminded us how adaptable we can be. Here are three ways to make unlearning an active part of how you work.

Connect with challengers

We unlearn when we look at a problem or opportunity through a new lens. This is more likely to happen if we’re spending time with people who challenge us and think differently than we do. The purpose of connecting with challengers is not to agree or debate but to listen and consider: What can I learn from this person?

Seek out people who have an opposite experience from you in some way. For example, if you’re in a large organization, find someone who has only ever worked for themselves. If you have 25 years of experience, find someone just starting out. People who have made different choices and have different areas of expertise than you are a good place to discover a new source of challenge. Asking people, “How would you approach this challenge?” or “What has your experience of this situation been?” is a good way to explore an alternative point of view.

Identify habits and hold backs

We all have habits that helped us get to where we are today. However, habits can create blind spots that stop us from seeing different ways of doing things or new approaches to try out. Our brains use habits to create mental shortcuts that might make us miss out on opportunities to reflect on and unlearn our automatic responses.

Create a habit tracker by writing down all the actions and activities you do by default over the course of a week. Pick three habits to consciously unlearn and try out a new way of working. For example, if you habitually set up meetings, see what happens when you leave it to someone else. If you habitually problem solve, try out asking for other people’s perspectives first. Testing your habits helps increase your awareness of your own actions.

Ask propelling questions

Propelling questions reset our status quo and encourage us to explore different ways of doing things. They often start with: How might we? How could I? What would happen if? These questions are designed to prevent our existing knowledge from limiting our ability to imagine new possibilities. They fast-forward us into the future and prompt positive action in the present.

To put propelling questions into practice, it’s helpful to pair up with someone else and take turns asking and answering questions. These five peer-to-peer propelling questions can get you started:

  1. Imagine it’s 2030. What three significant changes have happened in your industry?
  2. How might you divide your role between you and a robot?
  3. Which of your strengths would be most useful if your organization doubled in size?
  4. How could you transfer your talents if your industry disappeared overnight?
  5. If you were rebuilding this business tomorrow, what would you do differently?

Relearning

Relearning is recognizing that how we apply our strengths is always changing and that our potential is always a work in progress. We need to regularly reassess our abilities and how they need to be adapted for our current context. For example, collaboration remains as important as ever, but maybe you’re relearning how to do it in a hybrid world of work. Or maybe you’ve made a career change and you’re relearning what it looks like to transfer your talents to a new setting. Here are three ways to use relearning to stay nimble in the face of change.

Stretch your strengths

One of the ways to make your strengths stronger is to use them in as many different situations as possible. If you become too comfortable applying them in the same way, your development stalls. Strengths solving involves relearning how to use your strengths to offer support and solve problems outside of your day-to-day work. This could be in your networks, organizations you volunteer for, or even side projects you’re involved in. For example, one of our workshop participants is a commercial marketing director who applies her creativity not only in her day job, but also in the successful brownie business she started during lockdown.

Get fresh-eyed feedback

Looking at your skills from someone else’s perspective will help you identify opportunities to relearn. Asking for feedback can help open your eyes to your development blind spots and take back control of your growth. When your objective is to relearn, we find that presenting people with even-better questions works particularly well to provide them with the safety to share candid feedback. For example: How could I make my presentations even better? How could I make our team meetings even better? What’s one way I could do an even better job of progressing my performance?

Relearn resilience

Relearning takes resilience, and if you feel pessimistic about the progress you’re making, you might be tempted to give up. Refocusing on what’s working well can help you continue to move forward.

Try writing down three very small successes at the end of each day for two weeks. Your successes can come from your personal or professional life, and though it can be hard to spot them at first, the more you do this, the easier it gets. A very small success could include asking one person for feedback, helping a colleague prepare for a presentation, or even encouraging your toddler to eat a vegetable! At the end of two weeks, you’ll have 42 very small successes, creating the motivation and momentum to continue investing in your development, even when it feels hard.

* * *

We can’t predict how our careers will develop or what the world of work will look like in the future. Investing in our ability to learn, unlearn, and relearn helps us increase our readiness for the opportunities that change presents and our resilience to the inevitable challenges we’ll experience along the way.

Helen Tupper is the cofounder and CEO of Amazing If, a company with an ambition to make careers better for everyone

Sarah Ellis is the cofounder and CEO of Amazing If, a company with an ambition to make careers better for everyone.

https://hbr.org/2021/11/make-learning-a-part-of-your-daily-routine