1. History of Nasdaq -10% Pullbacks

Dorsey Wright–There have been a total of 177 pullbacks for NDX since the end of 1992 (not including the current drawdown). The average peak to trough drawdown for those instances sits at -10.66% with a median of -9.68%. It took the Nasdaq 100 Index just over 19 days on average from each peak to reach the trough. Less than half of the pullbacks ultimately led to a 10% correction, with the average decline from the date of each pullback to each trough sitting at -4.53%. The index averaged just under 60 days between each 5% pullback, which would lead to six such events each year.

2. What Did 1999-2002 Internet Bubble Crash Look Like?

I don’t think we are in internet 1999 crash situation but interesting stuff from Barry Ritholtz

Barry Ritholtz–One of the things that made the March 2000-October 2002 period so pernicious was that the recoveries that followed every single drop subsequently failed. Starting in December 1999, there were drops of 15.5%, 10.7%, 31.6%, 21%, 13.9%, 26.8%, 27.1%, 28.2%, 48.9%, 44.8%, and 50%. Each one of these moves lower led to buyers jumping in to take advantage of discounts, only to see the a subsequent rally that failed. New lower lows occurred, with fewer dip buyers each time. This is how we eventually work our way towards what technicians call a sellers’ exhaustion.

https://ritholtz.com/2022/01/living-through-a-crash/

3. Investors Buying Banks and Commodities

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading

POSITIONING– Latest BofA Fund Manager Survey highlights that investors have dipped into cash to up allocation to commodities (ATH) & equities; investors shifted from credit to commodities, growth to value, tech to banks.

Banks OW surges to highest since Oct’17.  Investors are very long equities, particularly in the EU, as well as cyclical banks, commodities, and industrials while they shun bonds, defensives (utilities, staples), and EM. Tech OW slumps to lowest since Dec’08, ACC to latest BofA Fund Manager Survey.

4. RPV Pure Value vs. RPG Pure Growth YTD 2022

Before Tues…RPG +7% vs. RPG -7%

www.stockcharts.com

5. Retail Sales Inflation Adjusted -2.5%….Inflation Kicking in to Consumer Spending?

@Charlie Bilello Free Money Lessons

US Retail Sales ended the year on a weak note, falling 2.1% in December before adjusting for inflation and -2.5% in inflation-adjusted terms. This was likely due in no small part to reduced travel and leisure activity from the exponential spread of the Omicron variant. But there are also signs that consumers may be starting to hold off on discretionary purchases given the sharp rise in prices and wages that are now failing to keep pace with inflation.

​Powered by YCharts

6. Retailer ETF Fails to Make New Highs.

RTH ETF 3 attempts at new highs fail

www.stockcharts.com

7. Top 10 Mega Cap Names 34% of S&P

“Passive ETFs” Are Hiding The Bear Market by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 1/18/22

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/01/18/passive-etfs-are-hiding-the-bear-market

8. Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare Growing 41% CAGR

GraphicalResearch.com

North America AI in Healthcare Market size exceeded USD 1.15 billion in 2020 and is predicted to witness over 44.2% CAGR from 2021 to 2027.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the broad-ranging division of computer science involved in developing smart machines competent in executing tasks that ordinarily need human intelligence. AI technologies are enhancing ongoing developments in the medical field, modern business, and everyday life practices in healthcare. Artificial intelligence in healthcare can support healthcare providers in multiple sectors of patient care and organizational management processes. Different applications of healthcare AI such as early diagnosis, lessen therapeutic errors, increase patient safety, and decision support are accelerating the market demand.

https://www.graphicalresearch.com/industry-insights/1778/north-america-artificial-intelligence-ai-in-healthcare-market

9. Fear and Greed Index Only Neutral So Far……..

https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

10. Absolute Success vs. Relative Success

written by JAMES CLEAR

LIFE LESSONS

One way to answer this question is to say: Luck matters more in an absolute sense and hard work matters more in a relative sense.

The absolute view considers your level of success compared to everyone else. What makes someone the best in the world in a particular domain? When viewed at this level, success is nearly always attributable to luck. Even if you make a good initial choice—like Bill Gates choosing to start a computer company—you can’t understand all of the factors that cause world-class outcomes.

As a general rule, the wilder the success, the more extreme and unlikely the circumstances that caused it. It’s often a combination of the right genes, the right connections, the right timing, and a thousand other influences that nobody is wise enough to predict.

As a general rule, the wilder the success, the more extreme and unlikely the circumstances that caused it.

Then there is the relative view, which considers your level of success compared to those similar to you. What about the millions of people who received similar levels of education, grew up in similar neighborhoods, or were born with similar levels of genetic talent? These people aren’t achieving the same results. The more local the comparison becomes, the more success is determined by hard work. When you compare yourself to those who have experienced similar levels of luck, the difference is in your habits and choices.

Absolute success is luck. Relative success is choices and habits.

There is an important insight that follows naturally from this definition: As outcomes become more extreme, the role of luck increases. That is, as you become more successful in an absolute sense, we can attribute a greater proportion of your success to luck.

As Nassim Taleb wrote in Fooled by Randomness, “Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to variance.”

Both Stories are True

Sometimes people have trouble simultaneously holding both of these insights. There is a tendency to discuss outcomes in either a global sense or a local sense.

The absolute view is more global. What explains the difference between a wealthy person born in America and someone born into extreme poverty and living on less than $1 per day? When discussing success from this angle, people say things like, “How can you not see your privilege? Don’t you realize how much has been handed to you?”

The relative view is more local. What explains the difference in results between you and everyone who went to the same school or grew up in the same neighborhood or worked for the same company? When considering success from a local viewpoint, people say things like, “Are you kidding me? Do you know hard I worked? Do you understand the choices and sacrifices I made that others didn’t? Dismissing my success as luck devalues the hard work I put in. If my success is due to luck or my environment, then how come my neighbors or classmates or coworkers didn’t achieve the same thing?”

Both stories are true. It just depends on what lens you are viewing life through.

The Slope of Success

There is another way to examine the balance between luck and hard work, which is to consider how success is influenced across time.

Imagine you can map success on a graph. Success is measured on the Y-axis. Time is measured on the X-axis. And when you are born, the ball you pluck out of Buffett’s Ovarian Lottery determines the y-intercept. Those who are born lucky start higher on the graph. Those who are born into tougher circumstances start lower.

Here’s the key: You can only control the slope of your success, not your initial position.

In Atomic Habits, I wrote, “It doesn’t matter how successful or unsuccessful you are right now. What matters is whether your habits are putting you on the path toward success. You should be far more concerned with your current trajectory than with your current results.”

You can only control the slope of your success, not your initial position.

With a positive slope and enough time and effort, you may even be able to regain the ground that was lost due to bad luck. I thought this quote summarized it well: “The more time passes from the start of a race, the less the head-start others got matters.”

This is not always true, of course. A severe illness can wipe out your health. A collapsing pension fund can ruin your retirement savings. Similarly, sometimes luck delivers a sustained advantage (or disadvantage). In fact, one study found that, if success is measured by wealth, then the most successful people are almost certainly those with moderate talent and remarkable luck.

In any case, it is impossible to divorce the two. They both matter and hard work often plays a more important role as time goes on.

This is true not only for overcoming bad luck, but also for capitalizing on good luck. Bill Gates might have been incredibly fortunate to start Microsoft at the right time in history, but without decades of hard work, the opportunity would have been wasted. Time erodes every advantage. At some point, good luck requires hard work if success is to be sustained.

How to Get Luck on Your Side

By definition, luck is out of your control. Even so, it is useful to understand the role it plays and how it works so you can prepare for when fortune (or misfortune) comes your way.

In his fantastic talk, You and Your Research, the mathematician and computer engineer Richard Hamming summarized what it takes to do great work by saying, “There is indeed an element of luck, and no, there isn’t. The prepared mind sooner or later finds something important and does it. So yes, it is luck. The particular thing you do is luck, but that you do something is not.”

You can increase your surface area for good luck by taking action. The forager who explores widely will find lots of useless terrain, but is also more likely to stumble across a bountiful berry patch than the person who stays home. Similarly, the person who works hard, pursues opportunity, and tries more things is more likely to stumble across a lucky break than the person who waits. Gary Player, the famous golfer and winner of nine major championships, has said, “The harder I practice, the luckier I get.”

In the end, we cannot control our luck—good or bad—but we can control our effort and preparation. Luck smiles on us all from time to time. And when it does, the way to honor your good fortune is to work hard and make the most of it.

HTTPS://JAMESCLEAR.COM/LUCK-VS-HARD-WORK

1. 2021 State of Venture Capital…VC Funding Jumps 106%

by Barry Ritholtz

I have noted that it seemed like VC money was everywhere, and now we have the data to confirm that. According to CBI’s State Of Venture 2021 Report, global venture funding was up 111% in 2021 hitting $620.8B. As the chart above shows, the US accounted for more than half of that, growing 107% in 2021 to reach $311.2B in investments.

We looked at fintech companies in Faster / Better / Cheaper, and as it turns out, that sector accounted for the largest amount of those VC dollars globally at $132B, or 21% of total venture funding. (This is an all-time high).

Not surprisingly, Silicon Valley led the US in VC funding in 2021, with more than $100B invested (Q4’21 was a record $29.3B); New York was 2nd at $65 billion, followed by Boston ($31B), L.A. ($24B), Seattle (~$7B), D.C. (~$5B), and Denver (~$5B). The U.S. led in global exits in 2021, followed by Europe and Asia.

If you are interested in these sorts of things, the rest of the deck is worth checking out . . .

Source:State Of Venture 2021 Report Chris BendtsenCB Insights January 12, 2022https://bit.ly/3npfVtg https://ritholtz.com/2022/01/2021-state-of-venture-capital/

2. Commodities ETF Breaking Out.

COMT Commodity ETF New Highs…50day thru 200day to upside back in Sept.

www.stockcharts.com

3. Did you know that 22% of all U.S. Dollars were created in 2020 alone? Read that again. 1/5th of all U.S. Dollars were created in 2020.

The Free Press Report-On December 2020 there were $15.4 trillion dollars in the world. At today’s date, there are $20.9 trillion dollars. In layman’s terms this is described as printing money.

In practice the Fed creates digital dollars to buy government bonds in the secondary market, known as quantitative easing. The buying of government bonds keeps bond prices high and yields low.

Assuming the interest payment on the $28.5 trillion of Federal debt is 0.07% this implies the yearly interest payment is $18.9 billion. But what if we assumed the interest rate started to move? We mapped the potential annual interest obligations out below:

• 1% – $270 billion
• 2% – $540 billion
• 3% – $810 billion
• 4% – $1.08 trillion
• 5% – $1.35 trillion
• 6% – $1.62 trillion
• 7% – $1.89 trillion
• 8% – $2.16 trillion
• 9% – $2.43 trillion
• 10% – $2.70 trillion
• 15% – $4.05 trillion
• 20% – 5.40 trillion

The United States is in big trouble if interest rates move. A move to a measly 3% interest rate implies the yearly interest payable would be around $810 billion — a 4,185% increase from the current rate.

But what if inflation gets out of control, bonds are sold off and interest rates move back to the levels we saw in the 80s? Annual interest payable on $28.5 trillion in debt would be in the trillion dollar range.

https://patriotone.substack.com

4. Inflation and Biden (or any President)

Dan Stratemeier

Managing Director-Equities, Event Driven Strategies-Jefferies LLC

6. Russell 2000 Small Cap and Nasdaq 100 Experience Record High Correlation to Start the Year

Dorsey Wright–The Russell 2000 (RUT) and Nasdaq 100 (NDX) are experiencing their highest correlation since 2012. In fact, with a current correlation (through 1/12) of 0.76, it ranks in the 98th percentile of all (daily) observations going back to 1994.

7. 60 Day Returns Nasdaq 100…Mega Cap -.38% vs. Smallest Stocks -14%

The image below shows the 60-day returns of Nasdaq-100 stocks by market cap. We can see that there is a clear performance bias favoring the largest stocks in the index. The 10 largest stocks are down -0.38% on average over the period while the 10 smallest stocks are down -14%. Meanwhile, the top half of stocks by market cap have outperformed the bottom half by nearly 5%

There has been an even more pronounced relationship between recent performance and earnings. Stocks with lower price-to-earnings (PE) ratios have outperformed those with high PE ratios or negative earnings. The chart below groups the stocks in the Nasdaq-100 by PE. The 10 lowest-PE NDX stocks, which have an average PE ratio of 13, have gained an average of 4.47% over the last two months while the 10 highest-PE stocks, with an average PE ratio of 382, are down more than 13% over the same period

https://oxlive.dorseywright.com/research/bigwire/2022/01/11/01-11-2022

8. Netflix -26% from Highs…Trades Back to August 2020 Levels.

www.stockcharts.com

9. Bets against Beyond Meat have made the plant-based food company the most shorted stock on the Russell 1000 Index

Natasha Dailey

Getty Images

• About 37% of Beyond Meat’s available shares are shorted, new data show.
• That makes the plant-based food maker the most heavily shorted company on the Russell 1000 Index.
• Short sellers made $735 million in 2021 betting against Beyond Meat as the stock sank.
• Bearish bets against Beyond Meat stock are piling up, with famed short-seller Jim Chanos also reportedly joining in.

According to the latest data from financial analytics firm S3 Partners, short interest in the plant-based food company is now about 37% of available shares, or $1.38 billion. That up from 26% in early October, and it means Beyond Meat is the most shorted company on the Russell 1000 Index, according to Bloomberg.

Betting against the company was a profitable position last year, considering short sellers made $735 million in profits, Ihor Dusaniwsky of S3 Partners told Insider in an email. In the new year though, short sellers so far have lost $126 million as Beyond Meat stock has rallied 10%.

Now Chanos, the short seller best known for predicting Enron’s collapse, is betting against Beyond Meat because he said it’s stopped being a growth company, he told The Financial Times. His firm, Kynikos Associates, did not immediately respond to Insider’s request for comment.

In 2019, Beyond Meat became the first plant-based meat startup to go public, and it had an explosive IPO. Last year, the meat-alternative company briefly became a meme stock as it rallied alongside other popular retail-trader names like AMC and GameStop.

But while shares have risen so far in 2022, the stock price has lost about 43% of its value in the last 12 months. Meanwhile, the Russell 1000 Index, which includes the top 1,000 US companies by market value, rose 20% over the same time period.

Beyond Meat stock sank 20% in November after posting a wider-than-expected loss for the third quarter and issuing a weak sales outlook. The company predicted continued labor problems and caution among customers amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Beyond Meat did not immediately respond to Insider’s request for comment for the story.

Bets against Beyond Meat have made the plant-based food company the most shorted stock on the Russell 1000 Index | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)

10. Design Your Environment

Farnam Street Tiny Thought

Environment is the hidden force that guides behavior. One reason it’s so effective is that it speaks to your subconscious mind and not your conscious mind.

Default behaviors love the path of least resistance. Not only does our environment choose that path but it pushes us in that direction.

Most of the time when we think of ‘environment’ we think only of our visible environment. Consider your house. Seeing a bag of chips on the counter makes eating healthy harder. In the same way, removing chips from the house altogether makes eating them harder. To get a bag of chips you have to get in your car and go to the store.

If we limit our understanding of environmental influences only to what we can see, we miss a large part of its powerful force. Let’s look at hidden environmental forces that shape our behavior.

We become what we consume. What you read today becomes the raw material of your thoughts tomorrow. High-quality inputs offer high-quality raw materials to assemble in the future. A person with an environment with rich sources of information makes better choices than someone consuming low-quality sources of information. Not only do they have better raw material, but they also have a broader perspective and a calmer mind. The same applies to food. What we eat today is what we become tomorrow. All things being equal, the person that eats healthier will live longer and avoid more problems than someone who does not.

Who we spend time with matters. My grandfather, like many, used to tell me you are the average of the five people you spend the most time with. A lot of wisdom, like this, gets easily dismissed because it’s not entirely accurate. That’s unfortunate because it’s very useful. By choosing who you spend time with today, you change your trajectory tomorrow.

Another bit of wisdom hiding in plain sight is that people tend to hang around people like themselves. That explains why if your friends watch TV every night, you eventually will too. You can take this in all sorts of directions. If you spend a lot of time with people who are kind and thoughtful, you will act that way too. If you spend time with people who share a certain politics, you eventually see things similarly. It also explains why, if you start spending time with people who are unlike you in certain ways you want to cultivate, you will become like them. All of this happens without conscious awareness.

By choosing who you spend time with you are also choosing who you want to be. This is the environmental force at work on your subconscious and your biological instincts.

Here are three lessons you can take from this:

1. Curate your information diet to be rich and diverse. Follow people who think differently than you. Read old books. Remember that what you put into your mind today is the raw material you have to work with tomorrow.

2. Surround yourself with people whose default behavior is your desired behavior. If you want to run more, join a group that runs every day. Spend less time with people whose default behavior isn’t your desired behavior.

3. Design your environment knowing it will influence your future self. You can easily make undesired behaviors harder and desired behaviors easier.

Understanding the invisible influence of your environment allows you to turn your desired behaviors into your default behaviors.

https://fs.blog

1. Last Time Fed Raised Rates….2 Double Digit Corrections

Ben Carlson A Wealth of Common Sense

The Fed. In 2018 we had two double-digit corrections in the U.S. stock market:

On Christmas Eve of that year we were basically in bear market territory. At the time no one really knew why the market was falling. There wasn’t a good reason.

After the fact most people agreed it was the Fed hiking rates:

The 3 Biggest Risks to the Market Right Now https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/01/the-3-biggest-risks-to-the-market-right-now/

2. Equity is Expensive but Cheaper than Bonds…Gundlach

From Dave Lutz at Jones

3. Where Does a Rise in Real Yields Start to Hurt Stock Investors?

Market watch The chart

Where does a rise in real yields start to hurt stock investors? A team of strategists at UBS, led by Bhanu Baweja, said that when yields rise more than 40 basis points over three months, “the impact on the market becomes material and goes nonlinear.”

“This is the range we regard as the rough threshold of real-rate pain
for the market. An incremental 10bp rise in real yields from here causes
the market to drop by about 0.8%, ceteris paribus. But what if other
things are not equal? A 5.2-point rise in PMIs will negate the hit to the
market from a 50bp rise in real yields,” said the strategists in a note to clients.

By

BY Barbara Kollmeyer

Follow

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/watch-out-for-stock-headwinds-and-recessionary-pressures-warns-bond-king-jeffrey-gundlach-11641989734?siteid=yhoof2

4. Bitcoin and Stocks are Increasingly Correlated

https://www.barrons.com/ Barrons

https://www.barrons.com/

5. Covid Favorite Carvana 54% From Highs

New Lows and 50 days through 200 days to downside

WSJ GM Takes Aim at Carvana, Vroom With Used-Car Website By

Mike Colias Follow

The Detroit auto maker is rolling out CarBravo, a new business that helps dealers put their used-car lots online

https://www.wsj.com/articles/gm-takes-aim-at-carvana-vroom-with-used-car-website-11641929229?mod=itp_wsj&ru=yahoo

6. The Video Game Industry Dwarfs the Box Office

Video games vs. the box office

The chart above gives some context on just how big the video game biz is. Last year the video game industry was pegged at somewhere around $180bn by Newzoo. That’s roughly ten times what the global movie industry brought in at the box office last year. Ten times. Admittedly last year the movie industry was still dealing with a pandemic hangover, but even in its best ever year the box office only brought in $39bn.

Video games may not carry the cultural impact of movies yet, but as a market they are in a completely different league.

Mobile making moves

Mobile games, that is games played on a smartphone or tablet, have grown so quickly over the last decade that they are now bigger than console and PC games combined.

Zynga’s pivot to mobile is a great example of a company that’s been flexible to its rapidly changing surroundings. Mobile games almost killed the company off, now they’re the reason it just got bought for $12.7bn.

www.chartr.com

7. The Housing Shortage Explained in One Chart

Steve Tuttle Fox Homes https://www.linkedin.com/in/steve-tuttle-871a3015a/

8. Lowest Apartment Vacancy Rate in 4o Years

From Zerohedge

Most new tenants are locked into a multi-year lease and have no intention of moving. Another issue for renters is the low housing supply, and surging prices have kept them on the sidelines. Prices are expected to continue rising in 2022.

In a separate report, Pew Research Center found rental homes and apartments across the country are experiencing the lowest vacancy rates in four decades. Despite the Covid-fueled migration patterns, a record low number of households moved between March 2020 and March 2021 because of low housing inventory.

“Rents are rising, and the discounts and concessions of 2020 are likely a thing of the past. Moreover, demand for housing continues to outpace the supply,” Bloomberg said.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-apartment-occupancy-hits-record-high-after-covid-Fueled-migration

9. Tuning out! Viewership at scandal-plagued CNN plummets by as much as 90% from last year in both overall audience and in advertiser-coveted 25-to-54 demographic.

• CNN saw a sharp decline in viewership the first week of 2022 with a nearly 90% drop both overall and in the critical demographic coveted by advertisers
• The network averaged just 548,000 viewers during the week of January 3, a precipitous drop to the nearly 2.7 million viewers from the same week in 2021
• CNN in the last year has been plagued by high-profile scandals, most notably the firing of its top-rated prime time star Chris Cuomo
• Critics have slammed network boss Jeff Zucker over the declining ratings, which began in 2021, with some accusing him of ‘protecting perverts and pedophiles’

By NATASHA ANDERSON FOR DAILYMAIL.COM

PUBLISHED: 14:07 EST, 12 January 2022 | UPDATED: 17:49 EST, 12 January 2022

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10394997/CNN-loses-nearly-90-advertiser-coveted-demographics-overall-total-audience.html

10. A Super Reader Who Gets Through Hundreds of Books a Year Explains How to Read Way More

Economist, blogger, and super reader Tyler Cowen’s advice on how to get smarter by reading way more.

BY JESSICA STILLMAN, CONTRIBUTOR, INC.COM@ENTRYLEVELREBEL

How to get smarter isn’t mysterious and it isn’t complex. The answer has been the same for millennia. Read more (though it’s true these days we do now have lots more delivery methods for insightful words). The trick isn’t in figuring out what you need to do–it’s in actually managing to do it.

Which is why I’m always on the lookout for great, unexpected ideas to squeeze more reading into our lives. Previously, I’ve uncovered ideas like hijacking your impulse to check social media to advance your reading goals, shaming yourself with a little math, and letting your book-buying impulses run wild. But when I came across a recent Financial Times article by Pilita Clark promising tips from “super readers,” my ears perked up in anticipation of more good advice.

Is it possible to read hundreds of books a year? Apparently, yes.

The whole article is worth checking out if you’ve vowed to read more in 2022. But one particular “super reader” Clark spoke to stuck out. “All pale before Tyler Cowen,” she writes. The economist, blogger, and author “has claimed that on a good night he can get through ‘five whole books.'”

That sounds impossible, but if you’re familiar with Cowen’s blog Marginal Revolution, which offers an absolute avalanche of wildly eclectic book recommendations and commentary, you know that it appears to actually be true. How does Cowen manage to get through hundreds of books a year? Another blog, Driverless Crocodile, has done us all the favor of gathering up much of what Cowen has publicly said about his reading habits.

While it’s unlikely us mere mortals will manage three digits’ worth of titles in 2022, here are some of Cowen’s best tips to at least significantly increase the pace you get through books this year.

· Be ruthless. Not captivated by a particular book at a particular time? Then on to the next. “Just stop reading, put them down,” Cowen advises. A boring intro, bad design, or hard-to-read font is enough to persuade Cowen to chuck a book. There are countless amazing books out there. Don’t settle for less than good.

· Go ahead and skim. At least in the case of nonfiction, if you already know the material, feel free to skip ahead. “When you go to read actual books you’re like, ‘I know that, I know that, I know that,’ and you keep on going, and you read much more quickly. And that’s really the way to read a lot,” says Cowen. (This also creates a virtuous cycle in which the more you read, the more you’ll know, and the more you can skip.)

· Read to solve problems. “The best reading is focused reading, when you’re trying to solve some kind of problem,” Cowen believes. You could aim to answer a specific question, investigate a given author, or scratch an itch of curiosity. “You want to start with a problem or question when you’re reading,” he insists.

· Read in clusters. This naturally follows on from the point above. If you arrange your reading around questions or areas of exploration, you’ll end up reading multiple books about the same topic. That allows you to “do a kind of cross-sectional mental econometrics and see which pieces start fitting together,” says Cowen.

· Read fiction. Gathering a stack of non-fiction titles to explore a topic is great, but don’t neglect fiction. “Reading fiction is important to understand the cross-sectional variation in humanity, to understand how difficult generalizations can be, to just get a sense of how different social pieces fit together, and to get a sense of different historical eras — and plus, reading fiction is often just plain flat-out fun,” explains Cowen. Amen to that.

· Read books about topics you know nothing about. “Every area you don’t give a damn about you probably should read at least one book in. Because the very best book in that area is superb, and you’re not going to know what it is. So if tennis is something you don’t know anything about, well, read Andre Agassi’s memoir. That’s a wonderful book. You don’t have to know about or care about tennis,” claims Cowen.

· Have fun. “Take reading seriously, develop a passion for it, and view it as part of your practice as a knowledge worker to get ahead, but along the way, having fun doing so,” Cowen concludes.

Happy (and bountiful|) 2022 reading!

https://www.inc.com/jessica-stillman/books-reading-intelligence-tyler-cowen.html?cid=sf01003

1. Fang Plus Index Holds 200 Day Moving Average.

FANG fails to top November highs….trades below 200 day most of yesterday but rallies to close above….

www.stockcharts.com

2. Nasdaq Comp Same Story….

Never breaks above November highs….holds 200day yesterday on afternoon rally.

www.stockcharts.com

3. MGC-MegaCap Tech ETF did Break November Highs.

MGC-made new highs and pulled back less than FANG and Naz Comp

4. ARKK Almost Cut in Half Mark.

ARKK approached the -50% from highs levels intra-day yesterday.

www.stockcharts.com

5. Nasdaq Averages Four 5% Pullbacks Per Year Going Back to 1972

Dorsey Wright–The Nasdaq Composite NASD has had a rocky start to 2022, with the index posting its fourth consecutive daily loss on Friday. In fact, the NASD has seen a decline in eight out of the last ten trading days. With Friday’s decline, the Composite has now pulled back over 5% from its closing value on December 27. There were a total of four 5% pullbacks in the NASD during 2021, which is right at the annual average dating back to 1972. There was only a 37-day gap between the last 5% pullback at the beginning of December and the most recent one, which is much quicker than the 92-day average gap between prior pullbacks. This also marks the swiftest 5% pullback since June 2020 at just eleven calendar days.

www.dorseywright.com

6. Pure Growth Factor Had Its Worst Week Ever Relative to Pure Value.

7. This Chart Shows KRE-Regional Bank Stocks vs. S&P to Start 2022 Massive Spike in Outperformance.

Jan 1. 2022 Bank Spike Vs. S&P

www.stockcharts.com

8. Gold and Warren Buffett Even 10 Year Performance.

@Charlie Bilello Same Outcome, Different Paths

It’s no secret that Warren Buffett is not a fan of Gold, having denounced the metal as an investment on numerous occasions.

While there’s no denying Buffett’s huge long-term outperformance versus Gold, over the last 20 years they look exactly alike, with a return of +548%. Same end point, but very different paths getting there (first 10 years belonged to Gold, and the last 10 years to Buffett).

​Powered by YCharts

9. Suburban Housing Seeing Favorable Polls

Pew Research-Americans Are Less Likely Than Before COVID-19 To Want To Live in Cities, More Likely To Prefer Suburbs

https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2021/12/16/americans-are-less-likely-than-before-covid-19-to-want-to-live-in-cities-more-likely-to-prefer-suburbs/

10. The Best Job Candidates Are the Best Storytellers

HBR by Kelsey Schurer

Summary.   A successful job interview hinges on a great story. A great story takes the audience on a journey. It has a clear beginning, middle, and end. The “before” version of you was met with a challenge that forced you to learn, grow, and ultimately do something differently. You…more

Where your work meets your life. See more from Ascend here.

Before the pandemic, and I do mean way before, I bought a beautiful suit — deep charcoal gray with a soft silk lining. It was my interview suit.

I’d just graduated from my Master of Fine Arts program and believed that first impressions were all about how we presented ourselves. This, to a degree, is true. But in the interview room, that presentation tends to stay on the surface. Of course, you need to speak intelligently and concisely, and you need the skills and experience to qualify for the roles you’re applying for. Still, as I stared at myself in my nice suit in the mirror, I naively forgot that first impressions extend far deeper.

First impressions are meant to impress. The word “impress” has more than one meaning; the most common is to gain admiration or interest. But to impress also means to imprint, or to apply so much pressure or intent upon something that you leave a permanent mark behind.

If you think about it, the pandemic applied that pressure, imprinting us with the desire to reexamine what’s important in our lives — especially our work lives. Some of us were left with more than just a need to switch jobs, but also a radical wish for more flexibility, money, and happiness in our careers.

If you’re one of the people seeking a new work opportunity, then you’re probably prepping for a job interview (or a few).

Here’s what not to do:

• Spend all your time memorizing facts about the company and role: Learning as much as you can about the company you’re interviewing with is smart, but everyone does this. The interviewer knows what their company already has, and they’re looking for what you can add.
• Stay up late considering how you might respond to expected questions: Are you Googling “tips for a successful job interview” and reading the top articles? Rehearsing “your greatest strengths and weaknesses?” Yawn. Instantaneous boredom.
• Only share the facts of your résumé: Without the context of how you show up when it counts, you won’t impress the interviewer. Your impression will stay at the surface level, leaving the interviewer with no emotional reaction to compel them to take a deeper look at you.

A successful interview hinges on a great story.

We’re all familiar with the most popular interview questions:

• “Can you tell me about yourself?”
• “What are your greatest strengths and weaknesses?”
• “Can you explain a challenge you overcame?”

Every situational question your interviewer asks you can benefit from a great story. And understanding how to tell an authentic story about yourself in a way that leaves a permanent mark — in a way that allows your prospective employer to really see you — is the key to standing out. We all have a story to tell. Whether we’ve overcome an obstacle or learned through a mistake, our work forces us to reach within and surface our inner heroes.

But how do you paint that picture for your interviewers? As a book-writing coach who specializes in the business storytelling realm, my job is to help other people share their authentic stories (and I’ve gone through a fair number of job interviews myself).

What have I learned? A great story takes the audience on a journey. It has a clear beginning, middle, and end. The “before” version of you was met with a challenge that forced you to learn, grow, and ultimately do something differently (the beginning). You made a decision you never would have made before (the middle). Sometimes you succeeded. Other times you failed. Either way, you walked away with a lesson. You survived a challenge and emerged as a more powerful version of yourself (the end).

The Beginning: Choose a story that left a lasting imprint on you.

Every one of us has faced challenges at work. Your task is to unpack some of those moments — something few of us have taken the time to do — and practice relaying them in a compelling and authentic way.

Maybe you saved the day by speaking up when you saw something unjust. Maybe you salvaged a client account with a fantastic idea. Maybe you supported your coworker through a difficult day. Or maybe from time to time you’ve failed, walked away recognizing your mistakes, and are a stronger and more strategic performer as a result.

Remember that we’re all human, and sometimes we don’t always slay the monster — that doesn’t mean we aren’t heroes. Telling our interviewers stories of both successes and failures helps us stand out as emotionally intelligent and self-aware candidates. We each have ways, big and small, in which we’ve grown through difficult times.

To begin telling your story, start by outlining one of these instances, and do your best to choose a moment that connects to the question at hand.

For example, put yourself in the interviewer’s shoes. Pretend you have just asked me the question: Can you talk about a time when you had to overcome a challenge? Let’s say I’ve done my research and I know that “resilience” and “emotional intelligence” are qualities that your company values. To answer your question in a compelling way, I would choose a story that displays those skills and begin by explaining the obstacle I had to overcome:

During my first summer as a journalist at a local newspaper, I was assigned to photograph a festival. You should probably know now that I’m not a very good photographer, nor have I taken many photographs in my career. But I was a good field journalist, and I had proven to my editor that I could get a story from a crowded event.

The festival was guaranteed to be front-page news for the paper — which meant we needed high-quality photos and coverage. That was my job.

Talking to strangers about all the fun they were having? Piece of cake. Handling a professional-grade camera with a long, heavy lens that was such a big deal it had its own dust cloth and carrying case? That was my worst nightmare.

https://hbr.org/2021/12/the-best-job-candidates-are-the-best-storytellers?utm_campaign=hbr&utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkedin

1. Marijuana ETFs -50% on Average from Highs.

MSOS-The Largest Weed ETF back to Covid lows

www.stockcharts.com

2. Market Rotation Out of Non-Profit Tech Stocks.

Investors dash out of US tech stocks in powerful market rotation

Source: Financial Times

From The Big Picture Blog

https://ritholtz.com

3. 10 Year Treasury Yield Broke Out of Short-Term Range…..Is 30 Year Next?

30 Year Treasury Yield

www.stockcharts.com

4. Unemployment Rate Drops to 3.9% Pointing to March Rate Hike

Source: Guggenheim Investments, Haver Analytics. Data as of 12.31.2021.

In another sign of how tight the labor market is, average hourly earnings rose 0.6 percent month over month, 20 basis points higher than expected, and November wage growth was also revised up. This wage data corroborate other data we’re seeing on worker bargaining power, with both the quits rate and small business wage plans at record highs. Powell has repeatedly cited strong wage growth as an upside risk to inflation.

Wages Are Booming with Business Signaling More Ahead

https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/perspectives

5. For Short-Term Traders…Bitcoin the Most Oversold on RSI Since 2020 Crash.

Zerohedge-Bitcoin be the most oversold since the March 2020 crash, surpassing even the furious liquidations observed during the May 2021 crash.

Waiting for the institutional bitcoin inflow?

Looks like you have to wait a bit longer. BTC has several problems when it comes to attracting the “real” institutional flow (we are not talking MSTR nor El Salvador). BTC lacks a shorter term trend and volatility continues to be huge. This is not what institutions are looking for…

Source: JPM

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/daretobuy

6. History of Bitcoin Corrections

@Charlie Bilello

Small Coins Crushed

https://twitter.com/charliebilello

7. Crypto Fear and Greed Index at “Extreme Fear” Levels

https://news.bitcoin.com/crypto-fear-and-greed-index-score-hits-5-month-low-analyzed-sentiment-points-to-extreme-fear/

8. States and Local Governments Running Healthy Surpluses.

Barrons-While the U.S. economy is expected to cool in 2022 after a pandemic resurgence, there’s a largely untapped source of hundreds of billions of dollars in potential stimulus that could keep inflation elevated for longer—and it’s sitting with state and local governments. 

State budgets are flusher than ever, benefiting from a Covid-driven combination of an estimated $885 billion in direct federal stimulus, soaring tax revenue, and curbed costs as some state and local services shifted online. State and local receipts were 16% above the prepandemic trend in the third quarter of 2021, according to an analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. State and local noninterest spending, meanwhile, was up just 5%. 

States Could Drive Rising Prices Even Higher. Here’s How.By

Megan Cassella

https://www.barrons.com/articles/inflation-risk-states-stimulus-51641431634?mod=past_editions

9. Half of the U.S. Could Need Glasses by 2050

www.chartr.com

10. Turning Goals into Results

How high achievers attain their goals. 

Posted January 9, 2022 |  Reviewed by Kaja Perina

KEY POINTS

• Not knowing, not doing, and the knowing-doing-gap keeps us from achieving our goals.
• A desire-fueled approach enables us to turn our goals into results.
• Track the percentage of time spent doing focused, productive work towards your goals.

At the start of a new year, we typically take account of what we have accomplished and what we would like to accomplish in the current and coming year(s). We find new determination to set and achieve our goals.

Yet many struggle to achieve the goals they so resolutely desire. We may fall into the blame game – blaming our situation or ourselves for not achieving them. Living through the challenges of the pandemic can make achieving our goals more daunting.

Learning to turn goals into results is important.

Having and achieving goals leads to having and living a life of meaning and purpose. Of the many hurdles that can get in the way of our achieving our goals, broadly speaking they fall into four areas.

Not knowing Sometimes the problem is that we are not clear about what we want. We don’t know what success would look like. So we meander in our efforts. In the absence of clarity, efforts are less directionally focused.

Not doing. Analysis paralysis is the swamp that can suck anybody in, but it is a special hazard for the more intellectually inclined. As they try to maximize and optimize choices, they incur the costs of indecisiveness and inaction. A mindset of risk aversion and reluctance to act leads to the next cause of failure to turn goals into results.

The knowing-doing gap. We know what our goals are at this point, and we often know what to do. But for many reasons, prominent of which is fear, we don’t do the needful. We may not know how to do what is required.

Circumstances change. Sometimes, however, extraneous circumstances beyond our control limit what we can do and force us to change our goals and how to achieve them. Buffeted by circumstances, our priorities change. We encounter losses – health, finances, and relationships – that narrow or close options, forcing us to accept what is, adjust accordingly, and accommodate the new normal.

How to turn goals into results 

There is a straightforward approach to turning our goals into results. It’s much like embarking on a road trip. It starts with having the desire to visit a destination. That leads to doing the required planning and preparation before setting off on the journey. Acknowledging the possibility that we may encounter road closures and detours that delay us can help us focus on reaching our destination. We can apply the same principles at scale to achieve our short-term and long-term goals.

Turning Goals into Results

Source: Rahul Bhandari

Desire is a powerful force of human nature. Advertising, branding, and marketing professionals harness it effectively. You, too, must tap into the power of desire to help you accomplish your goals. Generate within you a burning desire to achieve specific goals. Thinking of this process as strategic intent gives you the heuristic to align all you think and do towards achieving your goal(s). Shift your mindset from resisting what is required to the opportunity and ability to do it. This subtle shift from “I must do this” to “I get to do this” will allow you to take pleasure in and derive additional benefit beyond the task—giving you an added boost to do what is required.

Strategic intent in Sanskrit is known as sankalpa, a heartfelt desire, a solemn vow, an intention, determination, or a one-pointed resolve to do something. A sankalpa is a tool meant to harness the will, and to focus and harmonize mind and body on a specific goal. Your sankalpa is not just your intention. It’s your heartfelt desire: What you are meant to do in the world.

Planning is essential to achieving goals. An effective way of planning is to analyze, prioritize, and develop an operational plan. An excellent place to start is by taking an inventory of where you’re spending your time.

Over 13 weeks, track where you’re spending your time at 15-minute intervals. Then analyze the data by simply grouping the specific activities into types of activity. For example, a senior executive discovered she is spending 30% of her time in meetings she initiates, of which 80% are one-on-one meetings and 20% involve teams of people. Another 20% of her time goes into performance reviews. And so on.

\What percentage of your time are you spending doing focused, productive work towards your goals? This simple analysis gives you insights into what to stop doing, what to prioritize, and when to spend time aligned with fulfilling your desires. You can use the insights to then create a plan–for the year, quarters, months, weeks, and down to what you will accomplish each day and where you’d spend your time in 15-minute blocks. Bringing this intentionality alone provides the nudge to keep you focused on working towards achieving your goals.

Doing what is required is at the heart of achieving your goals. Three capabilities help. First, learn to manufacture time. Focus on the 20% of the effort that will get you 80% of the results. Don’t do that which you can have others do. Delegate. Second, build a team to help you in your journey. Think of elite athletes: They have an entire team of coaches, nutritionists, sports psychologists, and friends helping them prepare for and achieve their goals. Lastly, you don’t have to do everything all at once. Activate the power of compounding. Doing tasks incrementally but consistently over time accrues tremendous outcomes. This is the secret behind overnight success, which takes years of consistent and directionally focused effort.

The power of intentional living

Even the best-laid plans can sometimes be ineffective in helping us achieve our goals. The beauty of intentional living is that we can be agile – we can change our goals, come up with new plans, and take the required action to achieve them. Knowing what your goals are, planning and preparing to achieve them, and then doing what is required consistently is a proven recipe for success.

You’ve got this.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/turning-adversity-advantage/202201/turning-goals-results