Topley’s Top 10 – January 13, 2022

1. Last Time Fed Raised Rates….2 Double Digit Corrections

Ben Carlson A Wealth of Common Sense

The Fed. In 2018 we had two double-digit corrections in the U.S. stock market:

On Christmas Eve of that year we were basically in bear market territory. At the time no one really knew why the market was falling. There wasn’t a good reason.

After the fact most people agreed it was the Fed hiking rates:

The 3 Biggest Risks to the Market Right Now

2. Equity is Expensive but Cheaper than Bonds…Gundlach

From Dave Lutz at Jones

3. Where Does a Rise in Real Yields Start to Hurt Stock Investors?

Market watch The chart

Where does a rise in real yields start to hurt stock investors? A team of strategists at UBS, led by Bhanu Baweja, said that when yields rise more than 40 basis points over three months, “the impact on the market becomes material and goes nonlinear.”

“This is the range we regard as the rough threshold of real-rate pain
for the market. An incremental 10bp rise in real yields from here causes
the market to drop by about 0.8%, ceteris paribus. But what if other
things are not equal? A 5.2-point rise in PMIs will negate the hit to the
market from a 50bp rise in real yields,” said the strategists in a note to clients.


BY Barbara Kollmeyer


4. Bitcoin and Stocks are Increasingly Correlated Barrons

5. Covid Favorite Carvana 54% From Highs

New Lows and 50 days through 200 days to downside

WSJ GM Takes Aim at Carvana, Vroom With Used-Car Website By

Mike Colias Follow

The Detroit auto maker is rolling out CarBravo, a new business that helps dealers put their used-car lots online

6. The Video Game Industry Dwarfs the Box Office

Video games vs. the box office

The chart above gives some context on just how big the video game biz is. Last year the video game industry was pegged at somewhere around $180bn by Newzoo. That’s roughly ten times what the global movie industry brought in at the box office last year. Ten times. Admittedly last year the movie industry was still dealing with a pandemic hangover, but even in its best ever year the box office only brought in $39bn.

Video games may not carry the cultural impact of movies yet, but as a market they are in a completely different league.

Mobile making moves

Mobile games, that is games played on a smartphone or tablet, have grown so quickly over the last decade that they are now bigger than console and PC games combined.

Zynga’s pivot to mobile is a great example of a company that’s been flexible to its rapidly changing surroundings. Mobile games almost killed the company off, now they’re the reason it just got bought for $12.7bn.

7. The Housing Shortage Explained in One Chart

Steve Tuttle Fox Homes

8. Lowest Apartment Vacancy Rate in 4o Years

From Zerohedge

Most new tenants are locked into a multi-year lease and have no intention of moving. Another issue for renters is the low housing supply, and surging prices have kept them on the sidelines. Prices are expected to continue rising in 2022.

In a separate report, Pew Research Center found rental homes and apartments across the country are experiencing the lowest vacancy rates in four decades. Despite the Covid-fueled migration patterns, a record low number of households moved between March 2020 and March 2021 because of low housing inventory.

“Rents are rising, and the discounts and concessions of 2020 are likely a thing of the past. Moreover, demand for housing continues to outpace the supply,” Bloomberg said.

9. Tuning out! Viewership at scandal-plagued CNN plummets by as much as 90% from last year in both overall audience and in advertiser-coveted 25-to-54 demographic.

  • CNN saw a sharp decline in viewership the first week of 2022 with a nearly 90% drop both overall and in the critical demographic coveted by advertisers
  • The network averaged just 548,000 viewers during the week of January 3, a precipitous drop to the nearly 2.7 million viewers from the same week in 2021
  • CNN in the last year has been plagued by high-profile scandals, most notably the firing of its top-rated prime time star Chris Cuomo
  • Critics have slammed network boss Jeff Zucker over the declining ratings, which began in 2021, with some accusing him of ‘protecting perverts and pedophiles’


PUBLISHED: 14:07 EST, 12 January 2022 | UPDATED: 17:49 EST, 12 January 2022

10. A Super Reader Who Gets Through Hundreds of Books a Year Explains How to Read Way More

Economist, blogger, and super reader Tyler Cowen’s advice on how to get smarter by reading way more.


How to get smarter isn’t mysterious and it isn’t complex. The answer has been the same for millennia. Read more (though it’s true these days we do now have lots more delivery methods for insightful words). The trick isn’t in figuring out what you need to do–it’s in actually managing to do it.

Which is why I’m always on the lookout for great, unexpected ideas to squeeze more reading into our lives. Previously, I’ve uncovered ideas like hijacking your impulse to check social media to advance your reading goals, shaming yourself with a little math, and letting your book-buying impulses run wild. But when I came across a recent Financial Times article by Pilita Clark promising tips from “super readers,” my ears perked up in anticipation of more good advice.

Is it possible to read hundreds of books a year? Apparently, yes.

The whole article is worth checking out if you’ve vowed to read more in 2022. But one particular “super reader” Clark spoke to stuck out. “All pale before Tyler Cowen,” she writes. The economist, blogger, and author “has claimed that on a good night he can get through ‘five whole books.'”

That sounds impossible, but if you’re familiar with Cowen’s blog Marginal Revolution, which offers an absolute avalanche of wildly eclectic book recommendations and commentary, you know that it appears to actually be true. How does Cowen manage to get through hundreds of books a year? Another blog, Driverless Crocodile, has done us all the favor of gathering up much of what Cowen has publicly said about his reading habits.

While it’s unlikely us mere mortals will manage three digits’ worth of titles in 2022, here are some of Cowen’s best tips to at least significantly increase the pace you get through books this year.

· Be ruthless. Not captivated by a particular book at a particular time? Then on to the next. “Just stop reading, put them down,” Cowen advises. A boring intro, bad design, or hard-to-read font is enough to persuade Cowen to chuck a book. There are countless amazing books out there. Don’t settle for less than good.

· Go ahead and skim. At least in the case of nonfiction, if you already know the material, feel free to skip ahead. “When you go to read actual books you’re like, ‘I know that, I know that, I know that,’ and you keep on going, and you read much more quickly. And that’s really the way to read a lot,” says Cowen. (This also creates a virtuous cycle in which the more you read, the more you’ll know, and the more you can skip.)

· Read to solve problems. “The best reading is focused reading, when you’re trying to solve some kind of problem,” Cowen believes. You could aim to answer a specific question, investigate a given author, or scratch an itch of curiosity. “You want to start with a problem or question when you’re reading,” he insists.

· Read in clusters. This naturally follows on from the point above. If you arrange your reading around questions or areas of exploration, you’ll end up reading multiple books about the same topic. That allows you to “do a kind of cross-sectional mental econometrics and see which pieces start fitting together,” says Cowen.

· Read fiction. Gathering a stack of non-fiction titles to explore a topic is great, but don’t neglect fiction. “Reading fiction is important to understand the cross-sectional variation in humanity, to understand how difficult generalizations can be, to just get a sense of how different social pieces fit together, and to get a sense of different historical eras — and plus, reading fiction is often just plain flat-out fun,” explains Cowen. Amen to that.

· Read books about topics you know nothing about. “Every area you don’t give a damn about you probably should read at least one book in. Because the very best book in that area is superb, and you’re not going to know what it is. So if tennis is something you don’t know anything about, well, read Andre Agassi’s memoir. That’s a wonderful book. You don’t have to know about or care about tennis,” claims Cowen.

· Have fun. “Take reading seriously, develop a passion for it, and view it as part of your practice as a knowledge worker to get ahead, but along the way, having fun doing so,” Cowen concludes.

Happy (and bountiful|) 2022 reading!