Topley’s Top 10 – May 09, 2023

1. Tech Relative Performance vs. S&P 500 Sets New Record.

From Marlin Capital

https://twitter.com/Marlin_Capital


2. First Time in History Investment Grade Bonds Yield Less than 3 Month T-Bills

https://twitter.com/JulianKlymochko


3. Buffett Performance.

Huge periods of underperformance during bubble years….1999-2000….2021-2021.  Biggest outperformance years bunched in 1970’s-1980’s

www.chartr.com


4. 10-Year Correlations to S&P 500

https://doubleline.com/


5. Goldman Hedge Fund Clients Record Bearish.

Equities: Hedge fund clients haven’t been this bearish on stocks in at least a decade.

Source: Goldman Sachshttps://dailyshotbrief.com/


6. Transport Stocks Still in Downtrend.


7. Megacaps Still Carrying Their Weight

Bespoke Investment Group Heading into earnings season, there was a considerable amount of angst on the part of investors regarding the mecacap stocks and how they would react to their earnings reports. Given their outperformance in Q1, the prevailing view was that the bar was too high, leaving the megacaps susceptible to disappointment when they reported.  Within the S&P 500, there are seven companies whose weighting exceeds 1.5% in the index, and in the chart below we list the performance of each company’s stock (largest to smallest) on the earnings reaction day of their most recent report.  Of the seven companies highlighted, only two (Alphabet and Amazon.com) declined in reaction to their reports.  Two stocks (Nvidia and Meta) surged more than 10%, one (Microsoft) rallied more than 7%, and Apple, with its weighting of over 7%, managed to rise more than 4.5% following its report last week.  There’s still a ton of reports left to get through before earnings season winds down, but on a market cap basis, we’re past the peak, and based on the reactions of the largest companies in the market, it’s been a much better earnings season than most investors expected.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/


8. First Week in May KRE-Regional Bank ETF $360million in Inflows.

Bloomberg-Net inflows into KRE, which tracks the KBW Regional Banking Index, is down 35% this year, despite a 6.3% rally on Friday. The fund’s net inflows topped $360 million in the first week of May after attracting more than $1.5 billion in March and April combined, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Although it’s impossible to say exactly who’s buying, a chunk of it is likely retail investors, said James Seyffart, ETF analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. Claire Ballentine and Paulina Cachero https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-08/regional-bank-stocks-retail-traders-buy-into-volatility-for-quick-gains?srnd=premium&sref=GGda9y2L

www.stockcharts.com


9. U.S. Adults Fear of Public Speaking Scott Galloway

https://www.profgalloway.com/storytelling/


10. How Does Food Affect Your Brain?

This is how everything you eat may directly or indirectly affect your brain. Gary Wenk Ph.D.

THE BASICS

KEY POINTS

  • Foods will only act upon one’s brain if they in some way chemically resemble an actual neurotransmitter within the brain or affect brain health.
  • Food has both negative and positive effects; it all depends upon which food you consume, how much you consume, and for how long.
  • If you wish to alter your current brain function or slow your brain’s aging, you likely need to consume different foods.

Almost everything you choose to consume will directly or indirectly affect your brain. The contents of one’s diet will only act upon one’s brain if in some way they chemically resemble an actual neurotransmitter within the brain or if they are able to interact with an essential biochemical process in the brain that influences the production, release, or inactivation of a neurotransmitter, or the general health of the neuron itself.

Food should be viewed in the same way that we view drugs; they interact with many brain processes and alter how we think and feel. Your brain cannot tell the difference between a food (which is a chemical we consume for its nutritional value) and a drug (which is a chemical we consume for its potential positive benefits on our health).

Obviously, some things we consume affect us more than others. For the purposes of this article, I’m going to define food as anything we take into our bodies, whether it’s nutritious or not; this includes spices, plants, animal parts, drugs of any kind, coffee, tea, nicotine, and chocolate. In order to better understand how food affects the brain it will be helpful to divide them into three categories.

First, those foods we consume in high doses with acute dosing: for example, coffee, sugar, heroin, alcohol, nicotine, marijuana, some spices, and a few psychoactive plants and mushrooms. Their effects are almost immediate and depend upon how much reaches the brain.

In this class, the most important consideration is to get enough of the chemical from within the food to its site of action in our brain to actually produce some kind of effect that we can notice and associate with consuming that particular food. Most of the time, this simply does not happen.

For example, consider nutmeg, it contains two chemicals that our bodies convert into the popular street drug called ecstasy. Yet if we consumed the entire canister of the spice, our guts will notice (with terrible diarrhea) and there is a good chance that we will hallucinate for about 48 hours. According to my students, the experience is quite unpleasant.

Secondly are those foods that affect our brain slowly over a period of a few days to weeks. This is usually called “precursor-loading” and would include many different amino acids (tryptophan and lysine are good examples); carbohydrates that have a high glycemic index such as potatoes, bagels, and rice; fava beans; some minerals (iron and magnesium in particular); lecithin-containing products such as donuts, eggs, and cakes; chocolate; and the water-soluble vitamins. Their purpose is to bias the function of a specific transmitter system; usually to enhance its function in the brain.

For example, scientists once thought that drinking a glass of warm milk before bed or eating a large meal of protein made us drowsy because of tryptophan loading. The current evidence does not support this, but the claim makes my major point: We must get enough of any particular nutrient/chemical to the right place and at the right dose in our brain in order for us to notice any effects. (Unfortunately, in this case, tryptophan has difficulty getting into our brains.)

So, what’s the scientific evidence for considering the cognitive effects of these foods? Mostly, it’s related to what happens when we do not get enough of them.

For example, studies have shown that consuming too little tryptophan makes us depressed and angry and has been blamed for multiple wars and acts of cannibalism. Too little sugar or water-soluble vitamins (the Bs and C) will induce changes in brain function that we will notice after a few days of deprivation. Many authors jump to the conclusion that giving high doses of such nutrients will rapidly improve our mood or thinking: sadly, this is rarely the case. Ordinarily, the foods in this category require more time to affect our brains than those foods in the first category.

The third category includes the slow-acting, lifetime dosing nutrients that have been popular topics in the press recently. This category includes anti-oxidant-rich foods such as colorful fruit and vegetables, fish and olive oils; fruit juices, anti-inflammatory plants and drugs such as aspirin, some steroids, cinnamon, and some other spices; nicotine, caffeine, and chocolate; the fat-soluble vitamins; nuts; legumes; and beer and red wine.

People who eat these foods do not report acute changes in their thoughts or moods (depending upon how much they consume!) but certainly benefit from consuming them regularly over their life span. In general, the benefit comes from the fact that all of these foods provide our brains with some form of protection against the deadliest thing we expose ourselves to every day—oxygen.

Because we consume food, we must consume oxygen. Because we consume oxygen, we age. Thus, people who live the longest tend to eat food rich in antioxidants or simply eat a lot less food. Recent studies suggest that nicotine and caffeine prevent the toxic actions of oxygen in our brains, which is why I’ve included them here.

You can see that depending upon how you frame the question about foods and the brain, you get a different list of foods and a different reason for consuming them. If you wish to alter your current brain function or slow your brain’s aging, you likely need to consume different foods.

But in truth, no one ever considers these distinctions when eating—we just eat what tastes good. Sadly, our brains powerfully reward us when we eat sugar, fat, and salt; thus we have obesity and an oncoming epidemic of obesity-related illnesses. Consequently, like drugs, food has both negative and positive effects and it all depends upon which food you consume, how much you consume, and for how long.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/your-brain-on-food/202305/how-does-food-affect-your-brain

Topley’s Top 10 – May 05, 2023

1. Alot of Articles Floating Around About What S&P Does Post Rate Hike Cycle….Wide Range of Outcomes

Liz Ann Sonders Focusing only on the average would suggest a pattern of weakness leading into the final hike, some strength in the immediate aftermath of the final hike, and then a significant sell-off out to about 100 trading days following the final hike. But, take a look at the same average in the second chart below with the full range of outcomes based on the 14 cycles since the S&P 500’s inception in 1928. Obviously, there has been a wide range of outcomes—generally in the range of +30% to -30% over the span of the subsequent year.

The accompanying table below details each cycle, with the date of the final hike, along with S&P 500 performance at the six-month and one-year points. Pattern? Not so much. This highlights that there are always myriad influences on market behavior—not just monetary policy. But it also reinforces one of my favorite admonitions: “Analysis of an average can lead to average analysis.” While penning this commentary, I saw several headlines that flashed something along the lines of “typically, the final rate hike has been a positive for stocks”… there is no “typical” when it comes to this analysis

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/05/04/pause-fed-hikes-but-leaves-door-ajar-for-more


2. High Yield Bonds ..Gundlach Says Chart to Watch.

Gundlach “When high-yield bonds are suffering, it’s hard to make the case for equities,” he said  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/deposits-are-going-to-keep-drifting-out-says-doublelines-gundlach-warning-of-echoes-of-s-l-crisis-at-banks-abf6c294?mod=home-page

HYG 4th run up to 200- week moving average


3. EV Boom and New Infrastructure Build Out But….LIT ETF About to Break to New Lows.

LIT approaching 2021 lows.


4. Tech Measure…CRM

Salesforce big rally off lows but stopped dead at 200 week moving average.


5. Carl Icahn’s Stock -40% Since Hindenburg Research Report

https://www.economist.com/business/2023/05/04/hindenburg-research-takes-on-carl-icahn


6. Starbucks and Chipotle

Starbucks ran up to previous high

CMG breaks out to new highs

www.stockcharts.com


7. Israeli startup funding hits lowest mark in five years…-70%

Two reports conducted by the Start-Up Nation Policy Institute, and by IVC Data and Insights with LeumiTech show worrying trends for Israel’s tech sector. Only $1.7 billion were invested during the first quarter of 2023 in Israeli tech companies compared to $6.7 billion in the first quarter of 2022

Meir Orbach

https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/skkpa1v11n


8. A Couple Economic Indicators Updated.

Jack Ablin Cresset -Business optimism and building permits

https://cressetcapital.com/post/the-feds-high-wire-act-is-almost-over/


9. The Age of AI has begun-Bill Gates

Artificial intelligence is as revolutionary as mobile phones and the Internet.By Bill Gates

In my lifetime, I’ve seen two demonstrations of technology that struck me as revolutionary.

The first time was in 1980, when I was introduced to a graphical user interface—the forerunner of every modern operating system, including Windows. I sat with the person who had shown me the demo, a brilliant programmer named Charles Simonyi, and we immediately started brainstorming about all the things we could do with such a user-friendly approach to computing. Charles eventually joined Microsoft, Windows became the backbone of Microsoft, and the thinking we did after that demo helped set the company’s agenda for the next 15 years.

The second big surprise came just last year. I’d been meeting with the team from OpenAI since 2016 and was impressed by their steady progress. In mid-2022, I was so excited about their work that I gave them a challenge: train an artificial intelligence to pass an Advanced Placement biology exam. Make it capable of answering questions that it hasn’t been specifically trained for. (I picked AP Bio because the test is more than a simple regurgitation of scientific facts—it asks you to think critically about biology.) If you can do that, I said, then you’ll have made a true breakthrough.

I thought the challenge would keep them busy for two or three years. They finished it in just a few months.In September, when I met with them again, I watched in awe as they asked GPT, their AI model, 60 multiple-choice questions from the AP Bio exam—and it got 59 of them right. Then it wrote outstanding answers to six open-ended questions from the exam. We had an outside expert score the test, and GPT got a 5—the highest possible score, and the equivalent to getting an A or A+ in a college-level biology course.

Once it had aced the test, we asked it a non-scientific question: “What do you say to a father with a sick child?” It wrote a thoughtful answer that was probably better than most of us in the room would have given. The whole experience was stunning.  I knew I had just seen the most important advance in technology since the graphical user interface.  This inspired me to think about all the things that AI can achieve in the next five to 10 years.

The development of AI is as fundamental as the creation of the microprocessor, the personal computer, the Internet, and the mobile phone. It will change the way people work, learn, travel, get health care, and communicate with each other. Entire industries will reorient around it. Businesses will distinguish themselves by how well they use it.

Philanthropy is my full-time job these days, and I’ve been thinking a lot about how—in addition to helping people be more productive—AI can reduce some of the world’s worst inequities. Globally, the worst inequity is in health: 5 million children under the age of 5 die every year. That’s down from 10 million two decades ago, but it’s still a shockingly high number. Nearly all of these children were born in poor countries and die of preventable causes like diarrhea or malaria. It’s hard to imagine a better use of AIs than saving the lives of children.

I’ve been thinking a lot about how AI can reduce some of the world’s worst inequities. In the United States, the best opportunity for reducing inequity is to improve education, particularly making sure that students succeed at math. The evidence shows that having basic math skills sets students up for success, no matter what career they choose. But achievement in math is going down across the country, especially for Black, Latino, and low-income students. AI can help turn that trend around.

Climate change is another issue where I’m convinced AI can make the world more equitable. The injustice of climate change is that the people who are suffering the most—the world’s poorest—are also the ones who did the least to contribute to the problem. I’m still thinking and learning about how AI can help, but later in this post I’ll suggest a few areas with a lot of potential.

In short, I’m excited about the impact that AI will have on issues that the Gates Foundation works on, and the foundation will have much more to say about AI in the coming months. The world needs to make sure that everyone—and not just people who are well-off—benefits from artificial intelligence. Governments and philanthropy will need to play a major role in ensuring that it reduces inequity and doesn’t contribute to it. This is the priority for my own work related to AI.

Any new technology that’s so disruptive is bound to make people uneasy, and that’s certainly true with artificial intelligence. I understand why—it raises hard questions about the workforce, the legal system, privacy, bias, and more. AIs also make factual mistakes and experience hallucinations. Before I suggest some ways to mitigate the risks, I’ll define what I mean by AI, and I’ll go into more detail about some of the ways in which it will help empower people at work, save lives, and improve education.

Defining artificial intelligence Technically, the term artificial intelligence refers to a model created to solve a specific problem or provide a particular service. What is powering things like ChatGPT is artificial intelligence. It is learning how to do chat better but can’t learn other tasks. By contrast, the term artificial general intelligence refers to software that’s capable of learning any task or subject. AGI doesn’t exist yet—there is a robust debate going on in the computing industry about how to create it, and whether it can even be created at all.

Developing AI and AGI has been the great dream of the computing industry. For decades, the question was when computers would be better than humans at something other than making calculations. Now, with the arrival of machine learning and large amounts of computing power, sophisticated AIs are a reality and they will get better very fast.

I think back to the early days of the personal computing revolution, when the software industry was so small that most of us could fit onstage at a conference. Today it is a global industry. Since a huge portion of it is now turning its attention to AI, the innovations are going to come much faster than what we experienced after the microprocessor breakthrough. Soon the pre-AI period will seem as distant as the days when using a computer meant typing at a C:> prompt rather than tapping on a screen

https://www.gatesnotes.com/The-Age-of-AI-Has-Begun


10. How to Be Resilient.

Eric Barker How to Be Resilient

  • Emotional Regulation: When feelings overwhelm you, you can’t make good decisions. You’re an emotional crash test dummy. Slow down and get some distance. Notice and name your emotions. Then reappraise. Is this really that bad? Are these thoughts useful?
  • Optimism: When we can’t see a potential positive outcome, it’s rational to give up. Consider your Best Possible Self. See difficulty as transient, local, and controllable so you stop feeling like a pigeon in life’s shooting gallery.
  • Cognitive Agility: When you immediately jump to the worst-case scenario, you’re going to want to quit. Take the time to consider more possibilities. And then ask yourself which one you’d bet the mortgage on being most likely. Otherwise, you’ll feel like a shut-in in a house of horrors.
  • Self-Compassion: You’re letting someone walk all over you. But the person doing the walking is also you. Take that compassion you usually extend to others and offer some of it to yourself.
  • Self-Efficacy: You build confidence and agency by accomplishing things often enough that it changes how you see yourself. Start small and achieve goals until you start to see yourself as “the kind of person who achieves their goals.”

Everyone struggles. Everyone. Life is about how we see those challenges and how we respond to them.

The most important thing is to practice the above techniques. Do not let this post be another thing that just gets tossed into the attic of the world wide web. Until Silicon Valley invents a way for me to grab you by the lapels over the internet, you need to practice the above yourself. I’m just an NPC in the game of your life offering you a new quest.

Do not forget all the times that felt so horrible but you made it through. This is one of the critical lessons of life. All the times of shrieking madness that became little more than funny stories. “This too shall pass” isn’t enough…

I believe in “This too shall be hysterical.”

https://bakadesuyo.com/

Topley’s Top 10 – May 03, 2023

1. KRE Regional Bank ETF Breaks to New Lows…50% of Positions in ETF are Shorts.

Dave Lutz at Jones Short interest as a percentage of shares outstanding in the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (ticker KRE) rose to 96% from 74% a week ago, according to data compiled by S3 Partners. When accounting for the synthetic long bets created in each short sale, means almost 50% of positions in the ETF are wagering on a decline. That number climbed from 42% last Tuesday.

www.stockcharts.com


2. Regional Bank Market Cap $480B to $100B

https://twitter.com/ecommerceshares


3. Nasdaq vs. Small Cap Spread Back to Near Highs.


4. META +100% from Lows…24% Decline in Net Income…2.7% Revenue Growth

What did it report? @Charlie Bilello

2.7% year-over-year revenue growth, a 24% decline in net income, and operating margins moving down to 25% from 31% a year earlier. Hardly anything to get excited about, but all above the low expectations heading into the report.


5. UBER Chart

UBER holds 200day now making run at 2023 previous highs

www.stockcharts.com


6. VIX Hit 2021 Lows


7. Vanguard REIT ETF 50week Crossing Below 200week to Downside.

Long-Term weekly chart bearish cross to downside


8. New York vs. San Fran Comeback

New York City subway use is at 70% of 2019 levels, and San Francisco is at 47%, see chart below.


9. Nordstrom Shuts Down in City of San Fran

San Fran Union Square Store Closings

https://sfstandard.com/business/nordstrom-to-shutter-both-san-francisco-downtown-stores-citing-deteriorating-conditions-report/?taid=645150c92d3f1f0001320ae2&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter


10. The Power of Small Wins

Artwork: Xavier Veilhan, The Big Mobile, 2004, metallic structure, 25 spheres in PVC with diameters from 29.5″ to 137.8″, Exhibition View, 3rd Biennial of Contemporary Art of Valencia

What is the best way to drive innovative work inside organizations? Important clues hide in the stories of world-renowned creators. It turns out that ordinary scientists, marketers, programmers, and other unsung knowledge workers, whose jobs require creative productivity every day, have more in common with famous innovators than most managers realize. The workday events that ignite their emotions, fuel their motivation, and trigger their perceptions are fundamentally the same.

The Double Helix, James Watson’s 1968 memoir about discovering the structure of DNA, describes the roller coaster of emotions he and Francis Crick experienced through the progress and setbacks of the work that eventually earned them the Nobel Prize. After the excitement of their first attempt to build a DNA model, Watson and Crick noticed some serious flaws. According to Watson, “Our first minutes with the models…were not joyous.” Later that evening, “a shape began to emerge which brought back our spirits.” But when they showed their “breakthrough” to colleagues, they found that their model would not work. Dark days of doubt and ebbing motivation followed. When the duo finally had their bona fide breakthrough, and their colleagues found no fault with it, Watson wrote, “My morale skyrocketed, for I suspected that we now had the answer to the riddle.” Watson and Crick were so driven by this success that they practically lived in the lab, trying to complete the work.

Throughout these episodes, Watson and Crick’s progress—or lack thereof—ruled their reactions. In our recent research on creative work inside businesses, we stumbled upon a remarkably similar phenomenon. Through exhaustive analysis of diaries kept by knowledge workers, we discovered the progress principle: Of all the things that can boost emotions, motivation, and perceptions during a workday, the single most important is making progress in meaningful work. And the more frequently people experience that sense of progress, the more likely they are to be creatively productive in the long run. Whether they are trying to solve a major scientific mystery or simply produce a high-quality product or service, everyday progress—even a small win—can make all the difference in how they feel and perform.

Of all the things that can boost inner work life, the most important is making progress in meaningful work.

The power of progress is fundamental to human nature, but few managers understand it or know how to leverage progress to boost motivation. In fact, work motivation has been a subject of long-standing debate. In a survey asking about the keys to motivating workers, we found that some managers ranked recognition for good work as most important, while others put more stock in tangible incentives. Some focused on the value of interpersonal support, while still others thought clear goals were the answer. Interestingly, very few of our surveyed managers ranked progress first. (See the sidebar “A Surprise for Managers.”)

A Surprise for Managers

In a 1968 issue of HBR, Frederick Herzberg published a now-classic article titled “One More Time: How Do You …

If you are a manager, the progress principle holds clear implications for where to focus your efforts. It suggests that you have more influence than you may realize over employees’ well-being, motivation, and creative output. Knowing what serves to catalyze and nourish progress—and what does the opposite—turns out to be the key to effectively managing people and their work.

In this article, we share what we have learned about the power of progress and how managers can leverage it. We spell out how a focus on progress translates into concrete managerial actions and provide a checklist to help make such behaviors habitual. But to clarify why those actions are so potent, we first describe our research and what the knowledge workers’ diaries revealed about their inner work lives.

Inner Work Life and Performance

For nearly 15 years, we have been studying the psychological experiences and the performance of people doing complex work inside organizations. Early on, we realized that a central driver of creative, productive performance was the quality of a person’s inner work life—the mix of emotions, motivations, and perceptions over the course of a workday. How happy workers feel; how motivated they are by an intrinsic interest in the work; how positively they view their organization, their management, their team, their work, and themselves—all these combine either to push them to higher levels of achievement or to drag them down.

To understand such interior dynamics better, we asked members of project teams to respond individually to an end-of-day e-mail survey during the course of the project—just over four months, on average. (For more on this research, see our article “Inner Work Life: Understanding the Subtext of Business Performance,” HBR May 2007.) The projects—inventing kitchen gadgets, managing product lines of cleaning tools, and solving complex IT problems for a hotel empire, for example—all involved creativity. The daily survey inquired about participants’ emotions and moods, motivation levels, and perceptions of the work environment that day, as well as what work they did and what events stood out in their minds.

Twenty-six project teams from seven companies participated, comprising 238 individuals. This yielded nearly 12,000 diary entries. Naturally, every individual in our population experienced ups and downs. Our goal was to discover the states of inner work life and the workday events that correlated with the highest levels of creative output.

In a dramatic rebuttal to the commonplace claim that high pressure and fear spur achievement, we found that, at least in the realm of knowledge work, people are more creative and productive when their inner work lives are positive—when they feel happy, are intrinsically motivated by the work itself, and have positive perceptions of their colleagues and the organization. Moreover, in those positive states, people are more committed to the work and more collegial toward those around them. Inner work life, we saw, can fluctuate from one day to the next—sometimes wildly—and performance along with it. A person’s inner work life on a given day fuels his or her performance for the day and can even affect performance the next day.

Once this inner work life effect became clear, our inquiry turned to whether and how managerial action could set it in motion. What events could evoke positive or negative emotions, motivations, and perceptions? The answers were tucked within our research participants’ diary entries. There are predictable triggers that inflate or deflate inner work life, and, even accounting for variation among individuals, they are pretty much the same for everyone.

The Power of Progress

Our hunt for inner work life triggers led us to the progress principle. When we compared our research participants’ best and worst days (based on their overall mood, specific emotions, and motivation levels), we found that the most common event triggering a “best day” was any progress in the work by the individual or the team. The most common event triggering a “worst day” was a setback.

Consider, for example, how progress relates to one component of inner work life: overall mood ratings. Steps forward occurred on 76% of people’s best-mood days. By contrast, setbacks occurred on only 13% of those days. (See the exhibit “What Happens on a Good Day?”)

What Happens on a Good Day?

Progress—even a small step forward—occurs on many of the days people report being in a good mood. …

Two other types of inner work life triggers also occur frequently on best days: Catalysts, actions that directly support work, including help from a person or group, and nourishers, events such as shows of respect and words of encouragement. Each has an opposite: Inhibitors, actions that fail to support or actively hinder work, and toxins, discouraging or undermining events. Whereas catalysts and inhibitors are directed at the project, nourishers and toxins are directed at the person. Like setbacks, inhibitors and toxins are rare on days of great inner work life.

Events on worst-mood days are nearly the mirror image of those on best-mood days (see the exhibit “What Happens on a Bad Day?”). Here, setbacks predominated, occurring on 67% of those days; progress occurred on only 25% of them. Inhibitors and toxins also marked many worst-mood days, and catalysts and nourishers were rare.

What Happens on a Bad Day?

Events on bad days—setbacks and other hindrances—are nearly the mirror image of those on good days. …

This is the progress principle made visible: If a person is motivated and happy at the end of the workday, it’s a good bet that he or she made some progress. If the person drags out of the office disengaged and joyless, a setback is most likely to blame.

When we analyzed all 12,000 daily surveys filled out by our participants, we discovered that progress and setbacks influence all three aspects of inner work life. On days when they made progress, our participants reported more positive emotions. They not only were in a more upbeat mood in general but also expressed more joy, warmth, and pride. When they suffered setbacks, they experienced more frustration, fear, and sadness.

Motivations were also affected: On progress days, people were more intrinsically motivated—by interest in and enjoyment of the work itself. On setback days, they were not only less intrinsically motivated but also less extrinsically motivated by recognition. Apparently, setbacks can lead a person to feel generally apathetic and disinclined to do the work at all.

Perceptions differed in many ways, too. On progress days, people perceived significantly more positive challenge in their work. They saw their teams as more mutually supportive and reported more positive interactions between the teams and their supervisors. On a number of dimensions, perceptions suffered when people encountered setbacks. They found less positive challenge in the work, felt that they had less freedom in carrying it out, and reported that they had insufficient resources. On setback days, participants perceived both their teams and their supervisors as less supportive.

To be sure, our analyses establish correlations but do not prove causality. Were these changes in inner work life the result of progress and setbacks, or was the effect the other way around? The numbers alone cannot answer that. However, we do know, from reading thousands of diary entries, that more-positive perceptions, a sense of accomplishment, satisfaction, happiness, and even elation often followed progress. Here’s a typical post-progress entry, from a programmer: “I smashed that bug that’s been frustrating me for almost a calendar week. That may not be an event to you, but I live a very drab life, so I’m all hyped.”

Likewise, we saw that deteriorating perceptions, frustration, sadness, and even disgust often followed setbacks. As another participant, a product marketer, wrote, “We spent a lot of time updating the Cost Reduction project list, and after tallying all the numbers, we are still coming up short of our goal. It is discouraging to not be able to hit it after all the time spent and hard work.”

Almost certainly, the causality goes both ways, and managers can use this feedback loop between progress and inner work life to support both.

Teresa M. Amabile is a Baker Foundation Professor at Harvard Business School and a coauthor of The Progress Principle. Her current research investigates how life inside organizations can influence people and their performance, as well as how people approach and experience the transition to retirement.

Steven J. Kramer is an independent researcher, writer, and consultant in Wayland, Massachusetts. He is a coauthor of “Creativity Under the Gun” (HBR August 2002) and “Inner Work Life” (HBR May 2007). Their book The Progress Principle: Using Small Wins to Ignite Joy, Engagement, and Creativity at Work is forthcoming from Harvard Business Review Press.

https://hbr.org/2011/05/the-power-of-small-wins?utm_campaign=hbr&utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkedin

Topley’s Top 10 – May 02, 2023

1. FAANG+ All of S&P Returns 2023

Dave Lutz Jones Trading EARNINGS ROLLS– Results from the big tech companies have sparked investors’ hopes that the worst of the postpandemic hangover is fading, but they also show how much growth has slowed – Companies as varied as AMZN, GOOGL, META, INTC signaled to investors in recent days that the brutal slowdown in sales growth that began as people emerged from the pandemic and re-engaged with daily routines was coming to an end. Digital ad spending is stabilizing, for instance, and laptop buying is showing modest signs of life. The big tech companies that reported results this past week added a combined $320 billion in market valuation after posting their figures, according to WSJ

For many individual investors, the stakes ramp up Thursday when Apple is on deck to report its earnings. The company makes up about 19% of the average individual investor’s portfolio, according to WSJ.  Bespoke notes Apple and Microsoft account for 39% of the S&P’s gain so far in 2023. Add in NVIDIA and Meta and it’s 60%!


2. AAPL…Two Previous 2022 Runs at New Highs

www.stockcharts.com


3. Gold GLD ETF Needs $196 Print to Break-Out

www.stockcharts.com


4. Household Debt Service at Lows of 9.7%

https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights.html


5. Personal Savings Rate Bottomed and Showing Recovery

The United States: Personal saving as a share of disposable income is recovering.

Source: The Daily Shot https://dailyshotbrief.com


6. Interest Rates on I-Bonds Reset to 4.3%

I-Bonds Hit a High Over 9% But They Re-Set Every 6 Months.

New I-bonds are now officially earning 4.3% as inflation wanes, but have an attractive 0.9% fixed rate

Beth Pinsker  From May 1 through the end of October, any new purchases get a 0.9% fixed rate for up to 30 years, making it pretty good deal for long-term savers.

With inflation numbers coming down, the Series I Bonds interest rate took a tumble for its semiannual adjustment, officially announced Monday.

New I-bonds, issued May 1 through the end of October, will have a composite rate of 4.3%, which is down from 6.89% over the previous six months and a peak of 9.62%. That includes a fixed rate of 0.9%, which is up from the last rate of 0.4% in the last six months, and 0% for several years before that.

The U.S. Treasury usually waits until May 1 and Nov. 1 to reveal the new rate on the investments, but this time posted the update with no warning on Friday on its TreauryDirect.gov, which is the only place to buy I-bonds, once sales were locked out for the previous rate on April 27. I-bonds have grown in popularity over the past two years as rates have climbed, and that the news spread quickly.

I-bond rates have two components: an adjustable rate based on inflation data that resets every six months and a fixed rate that is set at purchase and sticks with the bond until redemption (up to 30 years).

Some rules apply, most important: You can only buy up to $10,000 a year per individual. Also, you must hold I-bonds at least one year, and if you cash out before five years, you lose the last three months of interest.

At a rate of 4.3%, I-bonds will no longer be top of the savings heap when CDs, savings accounts and other Treasury products are yielding as much or more. But because of the way the inflation protection works, I-bonds are still attractive for long-term savers. That’s because the new issue I-bonds have such a robust fixed rate. Those who bought I-bonds in the last two years when the fixed rate was 0% might want to think about cashing those out and buying new ones, but this strategy involves waiting at least 15 months rather than just one year.

“I would recommend cashing out old bonds at 0% to switch to new bonds at 0.9%, but you have to be careful not to lose the 6.48% variable rate,” says Harry Sit, founder of the blog The Finance Buff.

The inflation conundrum

You might be wondering: If eggs are still so expensive, why did the I-bond interest rate drop so much?

“Inflation is never an ‘is’–it’s only a ‘was,’” explains Jeremy Keil, a financial adviser based in Milwaukee. 

I-bonds are based on the last six months of inflation data from the Consumer-Price Index, which does not have the peak numbers from a year ago that are still included in headline inflation data. “Inflation is percentage of growth and it depends on when you start counting,” Keil says.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-i-bonds-are-now-officially-earning-4-3-as-inflation-wanes-but-have-an-attractive-0-9-fixed-rate-78a415ae?mod=home-page


7. The Cost to Insure Against a U.S. Default is Rising

From Barry Ritholtz Blog https://ritholtz.com/2023/05/10-monday-am-reads-389/


8. Paycheck to Paycheck by Generation

Liz Ann Sonders Schwab Survey from LendingClub shows that 65.5% of Gen Z were living paycheck-to-paycheck as of March, up from 58.3% a year earlier … share is greater for Millennials (73.2%), but increase from prior year (+0.3%) wasn’t as dramatic

https://www.linkedin.com/in/lizannsonders/


9. Nearly three-quarters of Americans blame media for dividing nation, poll says

By DAVID KLEPPERtoday  WASHINGTON (AP) — When it comes to the news media and the impact it’s having on democracy and political polarization in the United States, Americans are likelier to say it’s doing more harm than good.

Nearly three-quarters of U.S. adults say the news media is increasing political polarization in this country, and just under half say they have little to no trust in the media’s ability to report the news fairly and accurately, according to a new survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research and Robert F. Kennedy Human Rights.

The poll, released before World Press Freedom Day on Wednesday, shows Americans have significant concerns about misinformation — and the role played by the media itself along with politicians and social media companies in spreading it — but that many are also concerned about growing threats to journalists’ safety.

“The news riles people up,” said 53-year-old Barbara Jordan, a Democrat from Hutchinson, Kansas. Jordan said she now does her own online research instead of going by what she sees on the TV news. “You’re better off Googling something and learning about it. I trust the internet more than I do the TV.”

That breakdown in trust may prompt many Americans to reject the mainstream news media, often in favor of social media and unreliable websites that spread misleading claims and that can become partisan echo chambers, leading to further polarization.

Overall, about 6 in 10 said the news media bears blame for the spread of misinformation, and a similar percentage also said it has a large amount of responsibility for addressing it. Majorities also think others, including social media companies and politicians, share in the responsibility both for the spread of misinformation and for stopping it from spreading.

“So many people get their information from social media, and people believe whatever they want to believe,” said Araceli Cervantes, a 39-year-old Chicago woman and mother of four who said she is a Republican.

When it comes to protecting the freedom of the press in the U.S., 44% of respondents say the U.S. government is doing a good job, more than the 24% who say it’s doing a bad job. Most Americans are at least somewhat concerned, however, when it comes to the safety of journalists, with roughly a third saying they’re very concerned or extremely concerned about attacks on the press.

The poll of 1,002 adults was conducted March 30-April 3 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Follow the AP’s coverage of misinformation at https://apnews.com/hub/misinformation.

https://apnews.com/article/poll-misinformation-polarization-coronavirus-media-d56a25fd8dfd9abe1389b56d7e82b873


10. A psychologist shares 6 toxic phrases ‘highly narcissistic’ people always use—and how to deal with them-CNBC

Ramani Durvasula, Contributor@DOCTORRAMANI

The world is full of difficult personalities, but the one that’s impossible to avoid is the narcissist. They are usually the most insecure people in the room, but have established a way of appearing ultra-confident.

As a psychologist who studies narcissism, I’ve found that, in most cases, highly narcissistic people are masters of gaslighting. Their primary goal in a relationship is to offset their insecurity by controlling and manipulating others.

Here are six phrases that they always use — and how to deal with them:

1. “I don’t want to make this about me, but…”

Statements like this show that narcissistic people know they shouldn’t dominate the conversation, yet they do it anyway. It’s like a pseudo-disclaimer that gives them permission to only focus on themselves.

Olivia de Recat for CNBC Make It

How to handle it: If you get into a conversation with a narcissist, be prepared for their story hour. If it’s interesting, listen. You can even treat it like an IRL podcast. But if you’re hoping for a two-way conversation, look elsewhere.

2. “I’m sorry you feel that way.”

Narcissists have a hard time admitting fault, and this is their classic attempt at an apology. But it’s actually more of a deflection.

With this phrase, they’re implying that your feelings are your issues alone, and that they’ll take no responsibility for their behavior.

How to handle it: Without genuine remorse, no matter what the transgression was, they’ll likely do it again. My advice is to simply disengage. To avoid getting hurt in the future, it is often best to see people for who they really are.

3. “Why are you doing this to me?”

Narcissists have a stunning capacity to shift from being the offender to being the victim.

You may be the one who has the flu or a tough week at work. But if whatever you’re struggling with inconveniences them, it will be framed as their problem.

How to handle it: You can get a degree of power back through self-awareness. Otherwise, you may find yourself constantly wondering if you’re actually at fault. Seek support — from a therapist or empathetic friend, for example — to remind yourself that you’re not the offender.

4. “I’m a busy person. I don’t have time for this.”

“This” can be anything — maybe you want to discuss a project you’re working on together or you’re inviting them to a work event.

The hallmarks of a narcissist are entitlement, a lack of empathy and the inability to maintain reciprocal relationships. Not only are they unable to understand another person’s needs, but they’re also dismissive of them.

How to handle it: Recognize their limitations. They likely won’t make time for you unless they need something. These relationships are often the equivalent of going to an empty well for water, so do what you can to foster support independent of the narcissist.

5. “I hope you know who you’re messing with.”

The evil twin to this is: “If you ever do wrong by me, I’ll make your life a living hell.”

This tactic of dangling menace and the possibility of vengeance is how they create an illusion of power and a sense of fear in you. Most people don’t want to face this perceived threat, so they comply.

How to handle it: This can be unsettling, especially if you’re dealing with someone who does have a track record of making other people miserable. Documentation is key. Save all emails and messages. If there’s a genuine safety issue, work with local authorities to devise a plan. 

6. “It’s not fair.”

Narcissists believe there should be a set of rules for them, and separate set of rules for everyone else. When they have to comply, or a consequence is enforced, it’s a reminder that they are not special.

Whether their friend’s company is doing great and making lots of money, or they have to pay a penalty because they tried to game the system and got caught, you can expect a rant of “it’s not fair” statements.

How to handle it: You may be tempted to appease them, perhaps out of guilt or to avoid conflict. But doing so will set an impossible precedent. Don’t try to be a person who tries to make life “fair” for them by making unreasonable personal sacrifices.

Dr. Ramani Durvasula is a psychologist, professor of psychology at California State University, Los Angeles, and founder of LUNA Education. She is also the author of “Don’t You Know Who I Am: How to Stay Sane in the Era of Narcissism, Entitlement and Incivility″ and ”Should I Stay or Should I Go: Surviving a Relationship With a Narcissist.” Follow her on Twitter @DoctorRamani.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/30/psychologist-shares-toxic-phrases-highly-narcissistic-people-always-use-and-how-to-respond.html

Topley’s Top 10 – May 01, 2023

1. Lumber Makes New Lows.


2. High Yield Bond ETF

HYG held 200day moving average 3x still below 2023 highs

www.stockcharts.com


3. Market Cap to Equal Weight S&P One of Widest Spreads Ever 2023

Bespoke Investment Group-Whenever you see a list of best-performing stocks, it’s inevitably loaded with many small stocks that most investors have never heard of. This year, though, it’s practically been the opposite trend as the two top performing stocks in the S&P 500 on a YTD basis – Meta Platforms (+96%) and Nvidia (+88%) – are not only household names, but they also have market caps of more than $500 billion.  We’d also note that both stocks are more than 30 percentage points ahead of the next closest stocks in terms of top YTD returns!

With such strong returns among the largest stocks in the S&P 500, the YTD performance spread between the market-cap-weighted S&P 500 and its equal-weighted counterpart is among the widest ever seen on a YTD basis through the end of April. Through Friday afternoon, the market-cap-weighted S&P 500 was up 8.26% YTD, while the equal-weighted index was up just 2.13%.  At 6.14 percentage points, the YTD performance gap between the two indices is the second widest since 1990, trailing only the 6.8% percentage point gap in 2020.  Besides 2020, the only other year where the gap was wider than two percentage points was in 1997.  While it’s a small sample size and history doesn’t always repeat itself, we’d note that the S&P 500’s rest-of-year performance was a gain of over 20% in both of those years.  Just saying.

Besides the two other years where the performance gap was significantly wide like this year, what stands out about the chart below is how common it has historically been for the market cap-weighted index to underperform the equal weight index in the first four months of the year. Including this year, the cap-weighted index has only outperformed nine times in the last 34 years.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/big-winners


4. 10 Stocks 80% of Returns.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan. Data as of April 27, 2023. Weight and contribution are proxied by the SPY ETF. Weight refers to the average daily weight so far this year. 


5. Mortgage Originations…2020-2021 vs. GFC 2008 Crisis

2021 Super Prime 70% vs. 2007 26%…..2021 Sub-Prime 2% vs. 2007 12%

Hoya Capital

Found at Seeking Alpha.  https://seekingalpha.com/article/4558411-mortgage-reits-high-yields-are-fine-for-now


6. Next Bitcoin Halving One-Year Away

What is Bitcoin Halving?

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • A Bitcoin halving event occurs when the reward for mining Bitcoin transactions is cut in half.
  • Halvings reduce the rate at which new coins are created and thus lower the available amount of new supply.
  • Bitcoin last halved on May 11, 2020, resulting in a block reward of 6.25 BTC.
  • The final halving is expected to occur in 2140 when the number of bitcoins circulating will reach the maximum supply of 21 million.1

https://www.investopedia.com/bitcoin-halving-4843769

https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/bitcoin/halving


7. Saudi Mega City Project $500B vs. Inflation Reduction Act $370B

Scott Galloway-This sci-fi mega-city is the centerpiece of Saudi Arabia’s Neom project, budgeted at $500 billion. Keep in mind, that’s the budget — and 9 out of 10 mega-projects go over budget. Saudi Arabia is also building the Diriyah Gate, a $20 billion property development that will add 20,000 homes to the historic district of Diriyah, and the Red Sea Project, which will build 1,000 homes and 50 hotels across 22 small islands. Meanwhile, Qatar is building its own “city of the future” fit with a 90,000-capacity sports stadium, a dedicated entertainment district (“Entertainment City”), and the country’s first six-star hotel. No ski resort, though.

https://www.profgalloway.com/the-mother-of-all-pivots/


8. McDonalds Biggest Downloaded Food App.

https://www.qsrmagazine.com/fast-food/40-million-people-downloaded-mcdonalds-app-2022


9. Record Number of Journalists Detained Worldwide …Where are they Held?

WSJ By Alyssa Lukpat and Max Rust

https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-record-number-of-journalists-were-detained-worldwide-prior-to-evan-gershkovichs-arrest-cae34b14


10. Practice Improves the Potential for Future Plasticity-

E. Paul Zehr Ph.D. The more you attempt to learn skills, the better your brain gets at learning.

KEY POINTS

  • Motor skill learning leads to changes in brain structure and function.
  • Some of the neuroplasticity from skill learning is related to getting better at learning in general.
  • The training we do produces neuroplasticity to get better at what we are doing now and may help us learn better in the future.

Learning something new is hard. It doesn’t matter what it is, from motor skills for martial arts to musing about Mozart’s motivations, the process of acquiring knowledge, skills, and abilities is challenging. We can be trying to do something new or even reassembling and repurposing disparate bits of knowledge we already have. Regardless of the context, learning takes us out of our comfort zone and into discomfort while we try to kickstart the neuroplasticity that will take us forward.

Priming plasticity with prior practice

But can you get better at learning how to learn? This is basically the question that Jamie Kweon, Megan Vigne, Richard Jones, Linda Carpenter and Joshua Brown at Butler Hospital and Brown University were interested in answering with their research. These folks wondered if the effort and training that musicians and athletes undergo to learn and acquire skills has a more generic benefit of being better at learning in general.

We already know that learning motor skills produces changes in brain structure and function. Folks who have trained for a long time show these changes and acquired neuroplasticity.

From Mozart to Martial Arts Moves

In groups of musicians, athletes, and untrained “control” participants, the researchers used repetitive brain stimulation and pharmacological manipulation known to be related to the cellular basis of skill learning. The idea was to see if excitability of the brain related to motor activity was different in those who had intensively trained to learn skills and those who had not. They found that there was no inherent difference in general excitability between the groups. However, when the brain stimulation and pharmacological conditioning designed to enhance neuroplasticity, the musicians and athletes had a much more powerful response.

The overall “findings suggest that motor practice and learning create a neuronal environment more responsive to plasticity-inducing events”. It seems that deep history of skill learning allows for a better ability to switch to an enhanced learning mode. Since this was a cross-sectional study, it would be great to see an experimental study measuring such changes over time.

In any case, this interesting result has big implications for designing strategies and paradigms for learning in general but also for “psychotherapy and rehabilitation…including recovery from neurological disorders…like stroke rehabilitation, cognitive-behavioral therapy, or clinical rTMS”. This includes translation to other brain areas and “networks, such as those theoretically targeted with dorsolateral prefrontal cortex rTMS for depression“.

Yearning to Learn How to Learn

When I came across this study it brought to mind something related to this that I’ve seen so many times over the years. And this has been in both my own practices of physical activity especially in martial arts, but also teaching martial arts across the lifespan. A big part of what people learn at the beginning of training is actually how to learn the thing they’re doing. Once they get that down and achieve some level of neuroplasticity related to learning the tasks they’re trying to do, their learning going forward is enhanced and proceeds at a different rate than it did in the beginning.

I have seen this across many decades of teaching martial arts and also in my own practices and learning. In recent years I’ve expanded my repertoire to include more Chinese martial arts. The teaching methodologies of these traditions differ wildly from my prior experiences in Japanese and Okinawan martial arts. A big part of my ability to learn those new traditions was actually understanding how to “learn the learning”. In each case, once I worked through the hard work of learning how to learn, subsequent training was easier to do.

A takeaway is that steady work and dedication to learning skills and abilities will lead to better learning in the future. We just have to endure the upfront discomfort in the brain for beneficial long-term gain. This applies whether we are learning how to play guitar, apply a wrist lock, or implement strategies in cognitive-behavioral therapy. Like all things, it gets better with practice, and present practice can enhance future plasticity.

(c) E. Paul Zehr (2023)

References

Kweon J, Vigne MM, Jones RN, Carpenter LL and Brown JC (2023) Practice makes plasticity: 10-Hz rTMS enhances LTP-like plasticity in musicians and athletes. Front. Neural Circuits 17:1124221. doi: 10.3389/fncir.2023.1124221

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/black-belt-brain/202303/practice-improves-the-potential-for-future-plasticity