Topley’s Top 10 – December 28, 2022

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. Tesla Buyers 5x More Common in Democratic Counties

From Barry Ritholtz Blog The table above contains the top 10 and bottom 10 Trump-voting NY counties in the 2020 election, showing the percentage of Trump voters, the population, the number of TSLA registrations, and critically, TSLA registrations per 10k population. The result:.  Adjusted for population, Teslas are ~5x more common in heavily Democratic counties than they are in heavily Republican counties. https://ritholtz.com/2022/12/owning-the-libs/

Tesla Breaks 2020 Lows

2. Top Holdings for Retail Investors …Average Investors Buying Tech on Way Down

https://www.linkedin.com/in/val%C3%A9rie-no%C3%ABl-2530228a/

3. Big Tech Market Cap Bigger than Central Bank Balance Sheets

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathanbaird88/

4. New Bankruptcy Filings…Nothing Yet

Tavi Costa Crescat Capital

@TaviCosta

5. ROKU…$500 to $39

www.stockcharts.com

6. Consumer Discretionary Sector Has Given Up All Its Gains Since May 2020

Liz Ann Sonders Schwab

https://www.linkedin.com/in/lizannsounders/

7. Largest Pharma Companies in World

8. Housing Permits Fall 30%….1.9M to 1.35m

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PERMIT

9. Percentage of Home Sellers Changing Listing to Rental.

John Burns Real Estate

@RickPalaciosJr

https://twitter.com/RickPalaciosJr

10. Year-end moves for your financial strategy

Amy Theisen

Share:Investors have seen ups (inflation and interest rates), downs (stock and bond prices), twists and turns this year. One lesson from 2022 is that it’s important to focus on what you can control. This year-end checklist highlights actions you can take to help keep your financial strategy on track.

1. Review your goals and personal situation

  • Self-assessment – As you prepare for 2023, take the time to reflect on the year. Have your goals changed this year? Have your expenses increased with rising inflation? Talk with your financial advisor to ensure your plan captures your current goals, accurate expenses and appropriate time horizon.
  • Your comfort with risk – It can be easy to want to take more risk when markets are relatively calm, but shy away from it when markets decline, like we have seen this year. But it is important to ensure you’re taking the appropriate amount of risk to achieve your goals.
  • Your plan for the unexpected – A key part of planning is to plan for the unexpected, which can become much more valuable during volatile market and economic times. Review your insurance coverage and spending. Also, take a look at your emergency cash; we recommend having the equivalent of three to six months’ worth of living expenses on hand.
  • Beneficiaries, estate plan and insurance checkup – Do your beneficiary designations and estate plan still match your intentions? Generally, beneficiary designations on IRAs, 401(k) accounts and insurance policies supersede your will, so it’s important to align your beneficiaries with your estate strategy.

2. Make progress toward your goals while minimizing taxes

  • Retirement plan contributions – Don’t let the current market environment distract you from making progress toward your long-term goals. Consider maxing out on contributions to your retirement plan, health savings account (HSA) and IRA for 2022, including any catch-up provisions. If you’re not eligible to make a Roth IRA contribution or for a tax deduction on your traditional IRA contribution, consider a backdoor Roth contribution. A backdoor Roth contribution is when you make a nondeductible contribution to a traditional IRA and convert it to a Roth IRA. This strategy generally works best when you have little to no traditional IRA assets.
  • Roth conversions – If you’re in a lower tax bracket in 2022 or you want to take advantage of lower market values, discuss with your tax advisor if paying taxes today to convert some or all your IRA to a Roth IRA could help your long-term retirement strategy. This strategy could be particularly timely in years where we have seen declines, such as this one.
  • Required minimum distributions (RMDs) – Generally, anyone age 72 or older in 2022 must take an RMD from their retirement account by year-end to avoid the 50% penalty. If you turned 72 in 2022, you have until April 1, 2023, to do so; anyone age 73 or older must take their RMD by year-end. If you inherited an IRA, you may also need to take an RMD by year-end.
  • 529 plans – A 529 plan can help you pay for education expenses and possibly provide a state income tax deduction. Review your education funding goals to see if a 529 plan contribution is appropriate.
  • COVID-19-related distributions – If you took a COVID-19-related distribution (CRD) from a retirement account in 2020, you can return that money to an eligible retirement account for up to three years from the day after the CRD was received. Repayments of CRDs do not count toward the regular contribution limits. Work with your financial advisor to outline a strategy to repay these funds to your retirement account.

3. Give your portfolio a checkup

  • Portfolio balance – Your portfolio’s allocation was developed purposefully based on your long-term goals. Elevated volatility in both equity and fixed-income markets in 2022 might have caused your portfolio to drift from your intended asset allocation. Your financial advisor can help you rebalance if needed.
  • Portfolio positioning – Lingering inflation pressures, the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes and geopolitical uncertainty have contributed to driving bond yields higher and pushed equities into a bear market in 2022. Yet we believe a large amount of monetary tightening has already been priced in at a time when inflation may well have peaked. While increased volatility is likely to continue in 2023, the pullback in prices in both bonds and stocks has improved the future long-term return outlook in our view.
  • Asset class diversification – As the market’s focus swings between near-term uncertainties and longer-term opportunities, we expect leadership among asset classes and sectors to rotate, which means diversification remains critical. In addition to U.S. large-cap equities, enhance diversification with additional domestic and international asset classes. Defensive sectors have outperformed, but exposure to economically sensitive sectors can help position portfolios for a potential recovery. Appropriate allocation to bonds can help provide income and smooth out returns in times of equity volatility. Your financial advisor can discuss appropriate diversification based on your goals and comfort with risk.
  • Tax-loss harvesting – Losses within equities and bonds this year could be captured via tax loss harvesting and bond swaps. Recognizing capital losses can help lower your tax liability. Or if you’re in a lower tax bracket this year, it might be a good time to realize gains. Due to market volatility, some mutual funds may have rebalanced their portfolios, creating unexpected capital gain distributions that you may want to avoid. Work with your financial advisor and tax professional to review your situation and determine which strategies are right for you.

Before the curtain closes on 2022, talk with your financial advisor about these and other strategies that may help you stay in control of your strategy toward achieving your important long-term goals.

4. Maximize your impact

  • Charitable contributions – Since the standard deduction amount has increased, fewer individuals are itemizing their deductions. Consider “bunching” two or three years of charitable deduction to enable you to itemize deductions and potentially reduce your tax liability.
  • Annual gifts – You can make a $16,000 gift per person per year without incurring gift tax.
  • Gifting to loved ones or charity – If you’re planning to make a large gift in the next few years, speak with your estate attorney regarding the timing of the gift. The current estate tax exemption of $12.06 million per individual is scheduled to sunset at the end of 2025. After 2025, the exemption will be decreased by approximately 50%. It may seem counterintuitive, but when you are looking to reduce the size of your estate through large gifts, it can be advantageous to execute transfers of assets when markets are depressed to minimize the use of your estate tax exemption.

Amy Theisen

Amy Theisen is the Senior Strategist for the firm’s Estate and Legacy guidance. She is a member of the firm’s Investment Policy Committee Client Needs Working Group, which oversees the financial planning and advice for the U.S.

Amy has a master’s degree in accounting with a taxation focus from the University of Kansas.

 

Topley’s Top 10 – December 27, 2022

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. How Did 2022’s Most Loved Stocks by Analysts Fare?

Bespoke Investment Group As we approach year end, today we looked at where analyst ratings stood for Russell 1,000 stocks at the end of 2021 to see how the most loved stocks at the start of the year ended up performing.  Looking at just stocks with coverage from at least eight analysts, the average Russell 1,000 stock had about 59% buy ratings at the start of 2022.

Sixty-three Russell 1,000 stocks began the year with at least 90% buy ratings, while 52 stocks had less than 20% buy ratings.  Those 52 stocks with less than 20% buy ratings are currently down an average of 10.7% YTD on a total return basis.  The 63 stocks with 90%+ buy ratings are down an average of 22.8%.

The 38 stocks below had at least 92% buy ratings at the start of 2022.  Of these 38, the 24 with 100% buy ratings are down an average of 32% YTD.  The biggest of the “100% buy” stocks is Amazon (AMZN).  At the start of 2022, all 59 analysts covering the name had a buy rating.  It’s down just under 50% YTD as of this morning.  Two of the 24 stocks with all buy ratings on 12/31/21 posted gains this year: Encompass Health (EHC) and Horizon Therapeutics (HZNP).  That’s a “batting average” of under .100 with roughly 28% of Russell 1,000 stocks in the green on the year.  Click here to learn more about Bespoke’s premium stock market research service.

As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/how-did-2022s-most-loved-stocks-by-analysts-fare

2. Euro Natural Gas Prices Continue to Fall Even as Cold Front Hits

The Daily Shot Blog

https://dailyshotbrief.com/

3. China FXI Large Cap ETF …Covid Lockdown Over

FXI…Right on 200 day ….50 day turning upwards

www.stockcharts.com

4. Tesla Market Cap….$1.2 Trillion to $388B

From Abnormal Returns Blog www.abnormalreturns.com

5. Silvergate-The Crypto Bank Roundtrip to Covid Levels

www.stockcharts.com

6. The Number of U.S. Children Below the Poverty Line -59% Since 1993

NYT Deal Book Real progress is being made in tackling child poverty. The number of children in America living below the poverty line has plummeted by 59 percent since 1993. As The Times’s Jason DeParle reported in September, “child poverty has fallen in every state, and it has fallen by about the same degree among children who are white, Black, Hispanic and Asian, living with one parent or two, and in native or immigrant households.” The improvements coincide with more generous state and federal subsidies for working families, and changes to welfare laws that make it easier for struggling households to apply for assistance programs.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/24/business/dealbook/optimisim-in-2023.html

https://www.aei.org/articles/child-poverty-in-the-us-is-at-an-all-time-low-and-saying-otherwise-does-not-help-american-families/

7. Majority of Americans Think Social Media Bad for Democracy

Pew Research

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/12/13/striking-findings-from-2022/

8. A nutritionist shares the best snacks to bring on a plane to boost your immune system-CNBC

Monica Pitrelli@MONICAPITRELLI

Travelers have a host of pathogens to dodge this winter, including the “tripledemic” of infections caused by Covid-19, flu and RSV (respiratory syncytial virus).

But there are steps people can take to reduce their chances of getting sick, say health specialists at Spain’s SHA Wellness Clinic.

The key is to develop “a resilient immune system that can defend itself from attack by viruses and bacteria,” said Dr. Vicente Mera, SHA’s head of genomic medicine.

What to eat

“The most important thing is nutrition,” Mera said.

But drastic dieting isn’t necessary, he added.Rather, travelers can simply eat whole, plant-based foods, which can help decrease inflammation, he said.

Fiber in plant-based foods also helps the gut microbiome “fight pathogens that enter or are activated through the digestive tract,” he said.

Eating a nutrient-dense diet is the top recommendation from Melanie Waxman, an integrative nutrition specialist and eating coach at SHA Wellness Clinic.

That means eating “lots of vegetables, whole grains, fresh herbs, beans, sea vegetables, fruits, nuts, seeds and fermented foods,” she said.

What to pack on a plane

Waxman said travelers should snack on alkaline foods to combat acidity that is commonly caused by air travel. She recommended these easy-to-pack foods:

  • Toasted nori snacks: ”Great for travelling as they are light and easy to carry in small packs. Nori is alkaline and provides a good source of vitamin C, as well as omega-3 fatty acids, protein and minerals.”
  • Instant miso soup: “Contains all the essential amino acids … and restores beneficial probiotics to the intestines … great for flights and in hotel rooms as you only need to add boiling water to the sachet.”
  • Spirulina powder:“Packed with calcium and protein. It has a high chlorophyll content … is especially beneficial after spending hours in airplane cabins. The flavor can be strong so add it to a refreshing vegetable juice … [or take] as a capsule.”  
  • Plum balls:“A wonderful travel companion, as they are extremely alkaline, full of minerals that help increase energy, aid digestion, boost immunity and improve liver functions … the balls come in a container and are easy to pack in a cabin bag.”

Breakfast

Waxman recommends drinking one tablespoon of apple cider vinegar mixed with a glass of water before breakfast. The vinegar is “a powerful immune booster … full of probiotics,” she said.

For breakfast, a “wonderful” choice is oatmealtopped with berries, chia seeds and flax seeds, she said.

“Oats actually help the body produce melatonin more naturally,” she said. “Oats contain amino acids, potassium, B vitamins, magnesium and complex carbs … berries pack a punch of vitamin C, and the seeds provide extra omega-3 and protein.”

Jet lag

To combat jet lag, Waxman recommends taking more vitamin C.

She recommends eating sauerkraut, both before and after flying. “Fermenting cabbage causes the vitamin C and antioxidant levels to skyrocket,” she said.

Fresh vegetable juice is also great for immunity and jet lag recovery, she said.

Getting enough sleep

Sleep and immunity are closely linked, Mera said.  

“Restful sleep strengthens nature immunity,” he said, adding that poor quality, or quantity, of sleep increases the chances of falling sick.

People who average less than six hours of sleep a night, or 40 hours per week, have “a serious risk of illness,” he said.

Exercise — but don’t overdo it

Moderate exercise strengthens the immune system, Mera said.

But “30 minutes a day is more than enough,” he said. “Prolonged intense exercise can suppress the immune system.”

Examples of beneficial exercise include running, walking, swimming and cycling, he said.

Supplements, for some

Studies indicate that certain supplements — such as vitamin C, vitamin D, zinc, garlic, echinacea and green tea — may strengthen the body’s immune response, Mera said.

But, he said, they’re not necessary for everyone.

“It only compensates for nutrient deficiencies, which usually occur when nutrition is inadequate, or the immune system is very depressed,” he said.

Other recommendations

To strengthen the immune system, Waxman also suggests Epsom salt baths (“magnesium is easily absorbed through the skin”), using essential oils (“especially lavender, eucalyptus or tree tree oil”), drinking plenty of water and cutting back on alcohol, caffeine and sugar.

Mera added that relieving stress and anxiety is critical to immune health. He recommends meditation, yoga, tai chi and mindfulness to better manage emotions.

Philippa Harvey, head of SHA’s traditional Chinese medicine department, said travelers should start taking steps to strengthen their immune systems about a week before traveling.

“In TCM when someone is healthy and happy we say they have good qi, pronounced ‘chee’” she said.

She recommends eating foods that are in season, especially garlic and ginger in the autumn and winter.

She also recommends exercise and acupressure to stay healthy.

“Before we travel, a nice brisk walk in fresh air is the simplest solution,” she said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/26/how-not-to-get-sick-on-a-plane-pack-these-snacks-says-nutritionist.html

9. Labor Intensity of S&P 500 Down -70% Since 1980

CallumThoma Chart Storm S&P500 Labor Intensity: “In 1986, it took 8 employees to generate US$1 million in revenue. Today, the S&P 500 is 70% less labor intensive than it was in the 80s”

Source: @ISABELNET_SA (ChartStorm 20 June 2021)

https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-24-december

10. 5 Things to Make You Smarter -Eric Barker

We can’t improve our genetics but a lot of our mediocrity is self-imposed. There are a number of prescription-strength things we can do to make sure we’re firing on all cylinders and making the best of what we have. We can’t do much to become dramatically smarter but we can do a lot to be less dumb.

Alright, it’s time to lift the zoning restrictions on your brain. Let’s get to it…

Get Your Sleep


I know, I know – that sounds obvious. But as Christopher Hitchens wrote, “Ah, please never forget how useful the obvious can be.” Because as obvious as it may sound, we just don’t do it. UC Berkeley sleep researcher Matthew Walker reports, “Two-thirds of adults throughout all developed nations fail to obtain the recommended eight hours of nightly sleep.”

Getting enough sleep is a cognitive cheat code. Meanwhile, sleep deprivation knocks the intellectual right out of you. Educational studies show missing an hour of sleep turns a sixth grader’s brain into that of a fourth grader. There’s actually a clear correlation between sleep and grades: “Teens who received A’s averaged about fifteen more minutes sleep than the B students, who in turn averaged fifteen more minutes than the C’s, and so on.”

And the old maxim “sleep on it” is true. You do make better decisions after a good night’s rest.

Well, I don’t get enough sleep, but I feel fine…

That is the slumber equivalent of a drunk saying, ‘Gimme the keys. I’m okay to drive.” In studies, sleep-deprived people consistently underestimate how impaired they are: “after just a few days, the four- and six-hour group reported that, yes, they were slightly sleepy. But they insisted they had adjusted to their new state. Even 14 days into the study, they said sleepiness was not affecting them. In fact, their performance had tanked.”

But isn’t there an easy magic pill?

Well, kinda: coffee and cigarettes. Caffeine and nicotine both boost brainpower, temporarily. (This must be how Cinderella felt.) But they’re a double-edged sword. Cigarettes, obviously, are mucho bad for your health. And while moderate amounts of caffeine are healthy, it can seriously monkey with your ability to sleep. (I am not a caffeine addict. I prefer the word “enthusiast.”) We think that college students who like to party get worse grades because of drinking, but studies show the majority of negative impact comes from daytime drowsiness due to caffeine and poor sleep.

So what else can we do to be less dumb?

Get Your Exercise


Believe it or not, your brain is part of your body. And what’s good for your body is good for your brain. Here’s a sentence for you: “Scientifically, on the current evidence, exercise is the best way to enhance your cognitive function.”

When you exercise it boosts BDNF (brain-derived neurotrophic factor) which helps you learn faster. How much faster? As much as 20%. In fact, cognitive control is measurably better after just a single exercise session.

And if you want to hold on to those precious IQ points as you age, there’s this: “An analysis of sixteen prospective studies including more than 160,000 individuals found that moderate levels of physical activity lowered the risk of Alzheimer’s by 45 percent.”

“Dumb jocks” aren’t looking so dumb anymore. So taking care of your body with sleep and exercise is important, but we can also stay smart by improving what we do with that gray matter…

Stay Calm


Your car can have the most powerful engine in the world, but if someone else grabs the wheel, you’re not going to get where you wanna go. Impulsive feelings can lasso you and hogtie your judgment. Even if you have a high IQ, if you’re caught in a Pigpen cloud of emotion, you’re going to make bad decisions. It’ll be puberty redux.

Staying calm is the séance that precedes the exorcism. Scientists refer to it as “arousal control.” How do we stay chill? When you start to get stressed, relax yourself with deep breaths. Teaching recruits to monitor their breathing helped increase Navy SEAL passing rates from 25 to 33 percent. They didn’t freak out, screw up or quit.

Whenever you know you have something challenging coming up, take the time to prepare. A feeling of control reduces stress and keeps our thinking clear. Sounds simple but it’s powerful. When I interviewed someone who defuses bombs for a living, what did he say was vital for staying calm and making the right decision? Always knowing what you need to do next and focusing on that.

Like I said, IQ isn’t everything. It’s great for simple straightforward decisions, but with complex decisions rational IQ-style thinking can backfire. With complex decisions the research shows going with your gut can often be the better choice. And if you’re an expert at something, definitely go with your gut.

Emotions can be useful. To make smart decisions we need to listen to them – but not be controlled by them.

Still with me or are you checking text messages? That raises another issue…


Focus


The internet is half enlightenment engine, half dehydrated concentrate of stupidity. Spend too much time on social media (the epicenter of modern tantrum culture) and you will end up theatrically troubled. It feels like your brain is having trash shoveled into it. What else has such a capacity to make us both simultaneously exhausted and overstimulated?

Neuroscience conclusively shows your brain can’t multitask. Yes, you may think you’re good at it but just like sleep, this is an area where you shouldn’t trust your perceptions. Shifting between tasks is not seamless for your brain. Your focus and attention take a hit every time you switch. Constantly bouncing around between tasks produces the equivalent of a 10-point IQ drop.

Meanwhile, what does research show the most productive computer programmers have in common? An environment free from distraction. So when you want to be at your best, silence your phone and distance yourself from all those attention burglars. “Batch” all email checking, texting, and social media into pre-designated times. Then turn off notifications. This allows your brain to hum at full capacity and increases the secretion of elbow grease to get good work done.

But what’s the most powerful and easiest way to get smarter? Well, it’s not even about you…
 

Ask For That Thing Called “Help”


Handling every challenge in life by yourself builds character (mostly through nightmares). Your education isn’t complete until you’ve learned to take a hint. When you’re unsure, get help.

You’re not in middle school anymore where getting someone else’s answers is called cheating. You can’t learn the smartest way to handle everything on your own. Ask for advice.

People are busy. They don’t wanna help me.

Wrong-amundo. The research says: “people underestimated by as much as 50% the likelihood that others would agree to a direct request for help…”

Fine, but they’ll be irritated and think I’m stupid.

No, that perspective is stupid. Wharton professor Adam Grant finds: “research shows that people who regularly seek advice and help from knowledgeable colleagues are actually rated more favorably by supervisors than those who never seek advice and help.”

Know what’s even better than just occasionally asking for help? Find a mentor. But does needing someone to guide you mean you’re not a genius? Quite likely the opposite…

For his book Creativity, Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi interviewed over 91 of the most brilliant people in the world (including 14 Nobel prize winners). What did they have in common? By the time they were college age, almost every one of those earthshakers had an important mentor.” (To learn the best way to select and get a mentor click here.)

Okay, time to round it all up and learn the good news about the bad news regarding what happens to your smarts as you age…

Sum Up-Here’s how to get smarter:

  • Get Your Sleep: As a hard-working blogger and author, I assure you that the fact I sometimes get only 5-6 hours of sleep a night is the fine good for think when importantly function productive.
  • Get Your Exercise: What helps your body helps your brain. (If you’re the one person reading this who has friends insisting “You really need to exercise less to improve your health!” then feel free to ignore this.)
  • Stay Calm: We’re grown-ups – but often only theoretically. Impulsivity is considered a negative in research studies and on witness stands. Increase calm to increase smart judgment.
  • Focus: Things are rarely so bad that distractions can’t make them worse. You do not need the latest cultural software update from social media. I know singletasking sounds like something only elderly people do, like pinochle or saving money, but give it a try.
  • Get Help: Pre-masticated knowledge is often the best kind. That’s why you’re reading this. Ask for advice. Become the chimeric blend of the smartest people around you.

Do we become less intelligent as we age? The scientific answer is: yes and no.

The research shows there are two kinds of intelligence: fluid and crystallized. Fluid intelligence is raw processing power. Figuring things out with no knowledge. Crystallized intelligence is closer to expertise, based more on prior learning and information.

Fluid intelligence declines rapidly as we get older. In fact, it begins dropping at around age 25. Yeesh. But crystallized intelligence doesn’t even peak until age 60. It’s well known that top mathematicians and physicists do their best work in the first half of life. Meanwhile, great authors usually create their masterworks in the second half. (Fingers crossed.)

So as you age, focus on building skills and knowledge. Your processor may not be as fast but you can make up for it with a bigger hard drive. Become an expert at something deep and rich that you’re passionate about — and keep learning. You may not be as sharp as the young whippersnappers but if you focus on gaining more information about your field they won’t be able to keep up with you.

IQ isn’t everything. It’s just a measure of potential. It’s what you do with what you have that really matters. And, as P.J. O’ Rourke noted, maybe it’s a good thing we’re not John von Neumann:

“Smart people don’t start many bar fights. But stupid people don’t build many hydrogen bombs.”

https://bakadesuyo.com/blog/

Topley’s Top 10 – December 21, 2022

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. Asset Class Returns in Falling Dollar Environment

From Nasdaq Dorsey Wright

https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright

2. Bank of Japan Catches Market Off Guard

CNBC-Elliot Smith

– The Bank of Japan caught markets off guard by tweaking its yield curve control policy to allow the yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond to move 50 basis points either side of its 0% target.

-In its policy statement, the BOJ said the move is intended to “improve market functioning and encourage a smoother formation of the entire yield curve, while maintaining accommodative financial conditions.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/20/bank-of-japan-shocks-global-markets-with-bond-yield-shift.html

Japanese Yen to U.S. Dollar Straight Down 2020-2022 …Bounce in Last 2 Months

www.stockcharts.com

3. Short Interest in S&P Collapsing

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading JPM notes that Short Interest in SPY is collapsing near 2022 lows.

4. Follow Up to Yesterday’s Aerospace/Defense Chart….Raytheon Hiring 23,000 People.

Raytheon Still Has Labor Shortfall After Hiring 23,000 Workers

Raytheon Technologies is struggling to fill 13,000 job openings as labor shortages compound the disruption from supplier shortfalls, CEO Greg Hayes told a Morgan Stanley conference on Wednesday.

·   Company has already hired 23,000 workers this year

o    Has lost 15,000 to attrition

·   Annual sales expected to be at the lower end of forecast range due to supplier strains

o    Sees structural casting shortages crimping engine production through year end

o    Microelectronic chip shortages likely to linger through mid-2023

·   Predicts Airbus will produce A320neo at 65-jet monthly rate in 2025, below the planemaker’s target

https://news.bloombergtax.com/daily-tax-report/raytheon-still-has-labor-shortfall-after-hiring-23-000-workers?context=article-related

Raytheon 50day thru 200day to Upside

www.stockcharts.com

5. Crowded Airports with Travel Back ….JETS ETF No Bounce

Airline ETF Downward Channel Since Early 2021

www.stockcharts.com

6. E-Commerce Falls from 18.8% of Retail Shopping to 16.4%

WSJ By Isabelle Bousquette  Two years on, shoppers are returning. E-commerce is now 16.4% of all retail shopping, down from 18.8% at the height of the pandemic, according to the National Retail Federation. https://www.wsj.com/articles/retailers-rethink-in-store-tech-as-shoppers-return-11671233235?mod=tech_featst_pos3

RTH-Retail ETF 3 Lower Highs in a Row….But Another Chart that Never Broke Long-Term 200 Week Moving Average

7. Dogecoin Now Worth More Than Coinbase and Silvergate Combined.

https://twitter.com/GRDecter

8. More Solo Households in America than with Children for the First Time Ever

9. New electric car buying incentives kick in Jan. 1, and a lot has changed. Here’s an explainer.

Marketwatch By Sean Tucker

Only some Teslas will qualify; if you’re thinking of buying one, you should either wait or act really fast

Congress changed the rules governing electric car tax credits over the summer, but the changes didn’t immediately take effect. Some will kick in soon, while others will taper in over time. The evolving rules mean that the best time to buy an electric vehicle depends on everything from which car you want to your current income.

We’ll break it down for you.

What has changed, what will change

Before Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act in August, federal EV tax credits were reasonably easy to understand. Buyers could claim a credit of up to $7,500 if they bought one of the first 200,000 EVs or plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) a manufacturer built.

Once a manufacturer hit that cap, the credit phased out over the remaining year.

Two manufacturers, General Motors GM, -0.23% and Tesla TSLA, -5.22%, had exceeded the cap. Buyers couldn’t qualify for a credit when buying one of their cars. Another — Toyota TM, -0.07% — crossed it during 2022, meaning buyers could still be eligible for part of the credit.

No other manufacturer had hit the cap, so all EVs and PHEVs from other manufacturers qualify today.

The act changes the rules radically. Broadly, it eliminates the manufacturer cap and introduces income and price limits instead.

That means buyers can again qualify for the credit when buying a GM, Tesla, or Toyota product. But only if they fall under income limits and the car falls under price caps.

Those rules take effect on Jan. 1, 2023.

Some vehicles that don’t qualify for a credit on Dec. 31 will be eligible on Jan. 1 — chiefly those made by GM and Tesla.

New income and price caps

Only individuals reporting adjusted gross incomes of $150,000 or less qualify for the discounts. The limit moves to $225,000 for those filing as head of household and $300,000 for joint filers.

The law also introduces price caps. The discount now applies only to cars priced under $55,000 and trucks and SUVs priced under $80,000.

That rules out many Tesla products. Only the least-expensive version of its Model 3 sedan, the Model 3 Standard Range, sneaks in under the price cap. Every Tesla Model Y SUV qualifies. No Model S or Model X makes it in under the price cap.

Factory location limits

Congress aimed the new regulations at getting more Americans into electric cars to cut greenhouse gas emissions. But it has other aims, too.

Lawmakers designed the act to boost North American manufacturing. Only EVs assembled in North America qualify for the credit. That rules out some popular models, like the Hyundai Ioniq 5, 2022 North American Car of the Year, built in South Korea.

The act also phases in a set of rules requiring manufacturers to mine critical battery components in the U.S. or from major trade partners. Those rules don’t kick in until 2024, so you don’t need to factor them into your buying decision today.

Automakers are working to adjust their supply chains to meet the requirements. But, according to the Alliance for Automotive Innovation (a major industry trade group), no electric car could meet the battery sourcing requirements today.

Tesla is offering a discount to shop before Jan. 1

Many Tesla shoppers have figured out that their car will qualify for a tax rebate if they wait to buy — so many that it may be causing problems for the company.

Tesla reports delivery figures quarterly. The company has had a rough quarter, with its stock price falling dramatically after CEO Elon Musk began devoting much of his time to running Twitter. There are signs it’s worried about an artificially low delivery number in its fourth quarter results because of all the customer-requested late deliveries.

That could benefit buyers.

Tesla rarely discounts its cars. But in December, it’s offering a discount of $3,750 on every Model 3 and Model Y if customers agree to take delivery in 2022.

For some buyers, waiting for the tax rebate in January is still the best move. But if you plan to buy a Tesla and your income will keep you from qualifying for the tax incentive, you could see a lower price by buying now.

Reasons to wait another year?

One last component of the law might affect your decision. Before and after Jan. 1, 2023, the rules allow you to take the $7,500 discount as a credit on your taxes.

On Jan. 1, 2024, dealers will be allowed to offer it as an upfront discount instead. Waiting another year might make sense for buyers who can’t easily afford to float the $7,500 until tax time.

Putting it all together

So, if you’re shopping for an electric vehicle, when should you buy it?

If you want a GM, Tesla, or Toyota product, you won’t be eligible for the $7,500 tax credit in 2022. You might be eligible in 2023 if your income and the car’s price both fit under the new caps. In that case, you should wait.

If you’re buying a Tesla Model 3 or Model Y, however, and either your income or the car’s price means it won’t qualify, act now and take Tesla’s discount offer.

See: The 2023 Kia EV6 is more than $17,000 cheaper than the Tesla Model Y. How do they compare?

If you want to buy an EV from another manufacturer, you might be better off acting before Jan. 1. Income and price caps won’t affect your purchase then, and many cars that qualify under the old rules won’t be eligible under the new ones because of where they build them.

This story originally ran on KBB.com. 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-electric-car-buying-incentives-kick-in-jan-1-and-a-lot-has-changed-heres-an-explainer-11671130838?mod=home-page

10. Everything You Know About How to Sell Yourself Is Wrong, According to Wharton Psychologist Adam Grant

Whether you’re pitching a startup, making a speech, or applying for a job, don’t follow this common advice.

BY MINDA ZETLIN, AUTHOR OF ‘CAREER SELF-CARE: FIND YOUR HAPPINESS, SUCCESS, AND FULFILLMENT AT WORK’@MINDAZETLIN

Adam Grant. Photo: Getty Images

Vision. Passion. Confidence. Most of us–especially in the startup world–have heard over and over that we need these things to be successful. Whether you’re pitching a potential investor, selling a big customer, or even applying for a dream job, the more of these three things you have, the better–so conventional wisdom goes.

Adam Grant, Wharton psychologist, TED speaker, and best-selling author, says this is all wrong. In fact, he himself receives dozens of pitches every day, and he rejects many of them for leaning too hard on those three elements and being too light on things like data, asking for advice, and a desire to collaborate.

In an episode of his podcast WorkLife earlier this year, Grant actually invited a company founder who’d pitched him onto the show to discuss how these three elements led to her pitch being rejected–and she was both brave enough and wise enough to accept the invitation. The result is a fascinating conversation and some great lessons that can help all of us every time we pitch anyone–to invest, try our idea, buy what we’re selling, or even hire us.

Here’s what Jessica Holton, co-founder of the online relationship counseling startup Ours, learned from her conversation with Grant–and what we can all learn as well.

1. Don’t start by talking about your vision.

You have grand ideas about how the world would be a much better place if everybody could use your product, service, or ideas. For example, in her pitch, Holton told Grant her company’s goal was to “revolutionize relationship health.” 

“Why does relationship health need to be revolutionized?” Grant asked. “Where is the proof that it’s broken, that people are in pain, that they’re struggling with their relationships, that they don’t have the existing access to the solutions they need?”

Holton told him she’d gotten lots of advice to “sell a vision.” 

Grant responded: “That’s the first myth: ‘Lead with your bold idea!’ But research suggests that no one cares what you’ll create in the future until you convince them there’s something wrong with the present.” Many people suffer from “the curse of knowledge,” he added. Having studied a problem for months or years, “it’s so crystal-clear in your mind that you often forget to explain it to others.”

2. Preparation is more important than passion.

A second myth is that a great pitch must convey great passion, Grant said. Nearly every founder has heard this advice. “But in a study of a business plan competition, the amount of passion that founders showed had no bearing on whether judges decided to fund their pitches,” he said. “The founders who got investments were the ones who were rated as more thoughtful, logical, and fact-based.”

Passion is great, he added–no one is suggesting you should not be passionate about whatever it is you’re pitching. But doing your homework is a better path to success.

3. Don’t act like you have all the answers.

“We have the best team in the world to build a brand that makes relationship health accessible,” Holton wrote in her pitch. That sentence raised a big red flag for Grant, who found it self-aggrandizing. 

“Which takes us to our third myth–the key task in a pitch is to project confidence,” he said. He acknowledged that the question of expressing confidence is a loaded one for female founders seeking investment. “Research shows that investors typically ask male founders about upside potential (how will you win?) but female founders about downside risk (how will you make sure you don’t lose?),” he noted. “So, for better or worse, a lot of advisers told Jessica that it was critical to express confidence.”

What’s wrong with expressing total confidence? “Evidence shows that when people are considering working with you, they care at least as much about whether you’re collaborative as whether you’re capable,” Grant explained. “And I’ve found that one of the ways to signal that you’re collaborative is to talk about some of your shortcomings. It shows you’re receptive to input and open to learning.” 

I agree with Grant that talking about shortcomings could be tricky for female founders pitching investors if those investors tend to assume that women founders are less capable than men, even though the data suggests that the opposite is true. At the same time, whatever your gender, it’s smart to remember that in most pitching situations, part of what you’re selling is a relationship with you. Most investors won’t just send a check and then sit back and wait for results–they’re also offering their advice and their connections. And, of course, someone who hires you is likely to spend lots of time with you every day. So it’s a good idea to communicate that you’re eager to work with the people you’re pitching, and to learn from them. And to give them the sense that working with you will be a fun and collaborative experience.

In my new book Career Self-Care, which I’m honored that Grant endorsed, I explore how asking for help or advice when you need it is a sign of strength, not weakness. It’s something truly confident people are not afraid to do. If you’re pitching an investor or interviewing for a job, chances are you don’t just want money–you also want that person’s support, their insight, and their goodwill. Keep those things in mind during every pitch, and you’ll increase your chances for success.

https://www.inc.com/minda-zetlin/everything-you-know-about-how-to-sell-yourself-is-wrong-according-to-wharton-psychologist-adam-grant.html?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=freeform&utm_source=linkedin

 

Topley’s Top 10 – December 20, 2022

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. Year to Date TSLA -56% vs. S&P -19%

www.yahoofinance.com

2. Vanguard Energy ETF Broke 200 Day Twice Since Summer Only to Make More New Highs

3. S&P 500 Dividend Ratio Well Below Historical Mean

The S&P 500’s dividend ratio—the percentage of earnings that gets paid out in dividends—is around 30%, far below its long-term average of 50%, according to BofA Global Research.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/bonds-awful-investments-buy-them-51671057092?mod=past_editions

4. Apple Breaks Thru Lows Going Back to July

www.stockcharts.com

5. History of Purchasing Bonds Prior to Last Rate Hike.

Capital Group

https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/2023-bond-market-outlook.html?sfid=1988901890&cid=80900038&et_cid=80900038&cgsrc=SFMC&alias=A-btn-LP-2-CISynCTA

6. Investors are Net Overweight Bonds First Time Since April 2009

AndreasStenoLarsen

@AndreasSteno

https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno

7. Interest Rates Impact on Corporate Earnings

Advisor Perspectives Larry Swedroe Rising interest rates negatively impact corporate profits. Rising interest rates increase the cost of debt. The chart below demonstrates the positive impact on corporate profits of the four-decade long secular decline in interest rates. The dramatic rise in rates since the Fed began tightening policy will have the opposite effect.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2022/12/19/fourth-quarter-2022-economic-review-and-outlook

8. IPO Market Raises Least Amount of Money Since 1990

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ipo-slump-bankers-wary-2023-100000599.html

9. Disney Makes New Lows $200 to $86

www.stockcharts.com

10. Mark Cuban has 4 rules for making money—No. 4 is: ‘Know your s–t better than anyone else in the room’

Megan Sauer@MEGGSAUER

Mark Cuban says anyone can become a millionaire by following his four rules of success.

The 64-year-old investor, serial entrepreneur and owner of the NBA’s Dallas Mavericks says the strategy helped him accumulate his own wealth — a net worth of $4.6 billion, according to Forbes. He recently broke down his rules for GQ, noting that while they’re meant to help you earn cash, they’re really about being able to “control your own destiny.”

“If you want to be a millionaire, you can do it, but there’s a couple things you have to be able to accomplish,” Cuban said.

His first rule: “Find something you can be good at. Then, be great at it.”

To do that, you’ll probably need to study your subject relentlessly. Counterintuitively, you may also need to “cross-train” your brain by studying other topics of interest, too. Research published by the Association for Psychological Science last year noted that what separates Nobel Prize winners from national-level winners is often multidisciplinary experience.

Similarly, the research found that competitive athletes had “greater sustainability of long-term excellence” if they played more than one sport as a child. Those athletes didn’t immediately excel at their preferred sport, but showed a more consistent route to eventual mastery over time, the authors added.

Cuban’s second rule is “know how to sell.” His own sales career started early: At age 12, he sold trash bags door-to-door to earn money for new sneakers, he said.

The billionaire has previously given out advice on how to succeed at sales — by showing people how you can help them in the first couple of seconds of your pitch.

“Selling isn’t about convincing, it’s about helping,” Cuban told the School of Hard Knocks in a TikTok. “When you understand what people need and want, you put yourself in a position to help them,” he said. “Then you make good things happen, close deals and that’s how you create companies.”

Sales may not be a bad place for aspiring millionaires to start. In 2017, 15% of CEOs from the top 100 Fortune 500 companies started in sales, according to a survey from leadership consulting firm Heidrick & Struggles.

The third rule: “Be curious and always learning,” Cuban said.

Having a “lifetime learning mentality” correlates with both objective and subjective success — from the number of promotions you get to how happy you are in your job — according to a 2020 study from University of Waterloo finance and education researchers.

Lifelong learners can even save their employers money in the long run, study co-author Judene Pretti told UWaterloo’s “Alumni Know” podcast in April.

“As technology continues to move at the rapid pace it is, employers need their employees to … undertake learning and development to stay on top of what the latest technologies are,” Pretti said. “It isn’t a matter of needing to replace workforce. Instead, develop and grow the existing workforce.”

Lastly, Cuban’s fourth rule is his longest — and perhaps his most important, especially for aspiring entrepreneurs.

“When you walk into a room, you [need to] know your s–t better than anyone else in the room,” he said. “That’s when it’s time to start a company. Then, you can start to control your own destiny.”

Knowledge, of course, doesn’t guarantee success. Before Cuban started his first company, he quit or was fired from three consecutive jobs and slept on the floor of a three-bedroom apartment he shared with five roommates, he wrote in Forbes in 2013.

He touched on a similar subject in his 2011 book “How to Win at the Sport of Business,” writing that it “doesn’t matter how many times” you fail. “You only have to be right once” to be “set for life,” he added.

That lesson may be why Cuban seems confident enough in his four rules to stake his own livelihood on it. Even if he lost everything, he’d build himself back into a millionaire again, he told NPR’s “How I Built This” podcast in 2016.

“I would get a job as a bartender at night, and a sales job during the day, and I would start working,” Cuban said. “To be a billionaire, you have got get lucky … [but] could I become a multi-millionaire again? I have no doubt.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/18/mark-cuban-simple-rules-for-making-money-becoming-millionaire.html

 

Topley’s Top 10 – December 19, 2022

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. Fed 2009-2021 vs. Today-Howard Marks Oaktree

From Howard Marks Letter

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/sea-change.pdf

2. 30 Year Treasury Bond Traded Close to 2008 Levels

www.stockcharts.com

3. Worldwide Defense Spending Going Up …Aerospace/Defense Stocks Outperform

Japan Doubled Defense Spending This Year

Rising defense spending is buoying defense stocks. (chart via @ycharts)

(nytimes.com)

https://abnormalreturns.com/2022/12/18/sunday-links-a-power-law-world/

4. U.S. Gross Crude Oil Exports at Record

https://dailyshotbrief.com

5. IPO ETF Makes New Lows Again

www.stockcharts.com

6. 2022 Housing Market is Not 2008 in One Chart

https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/

7. China Vs. U.S. Global Trade Footprint 2000-2020….Staggering Chart

John Mauldin Blog From Blue to Red: Striking Supply Side Shift At the turn of the century, America was the dominant supplier for the world, but in just 20 short years, China has taken that title. And, despite the naysayers, the trend continues.In the last two decades, China’s trade with Latin America and the Caribbean has grown 26-fold, from $12 billion to $315 billion. It also overtook America as the top supplier in Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe, and South America.

The visual is truly staggering:

https://talkmarkets.com/content/currenciesforex/a-decade-of-roller-coaster-markets?post=377792

8. School of Quant: At $29,000, a Public NYC College Outclasses Princeton-Bloomberg

New York’s Baruch College offers a no-frills financial engineering course that’s feeding some of the world’s most elite global trading firms.

Heather Perlberg

Princeton has its Gothic spires, MIT its Great Dome. But for a no-frills lesson in 21st-century finance, head to a lackluster high-rise on Manhattan’s East 25th Street — AKA, Bernard Baruch Way.

Nine flights up, along scuffed linoleum hallways, a handful of math-loving graduate students consider equations that would make most people’s heads hurt. On the syllabus recently: three-dimensional volatility surface structures for options pricing models.

If you have to ask what those are, you probably don’t belong at the elite financial engineering program at Baruch College, part of New York City’s sprawling, 275,000-student public university system.

Call it Quant U.

Baruch, it turns out, has built a pipeline to Wall Street that rivals those at many richer, more prestigious institutions. Its faculty includes pros from the likes of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. Its students routinely graduate into six-figure jobs at big banks or, more likely, head to hedge funds such as Citadel and Millennium Management.

Similar top-rated programs at Princeton, MIT, Cornell and Carnegie Mellon? They’re good, yes — but Baruch bests them all, according to annual surveys by QuantNet, an online forum for financial engineers.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-12-15/school-of-quant-at-29-000-an-nyc-college-outclasses-princeton?sref=GGda9y2L

9. Working-Age Population Decrease

Vanguard

https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/dam/corp/research/pdf/isg_vemo_2023.pdf

10. 3 Powerful Strategies for a Better Brain in 2023

Skip the diet resolutions and focus on your brain in the coming year. Austin Perlmutter M.D.

KEY POINTS

  • Limiting consumption of unnecessary, excessive, and stressful media may help improve brain function.
  • Having more close friends late in life is linked to a significantly lower risk for dementia.
  • Perpetually challenging one’s brain, even by simply exploring an opposing ideological perspective, can help keep it sharp and healthy.

At the end of each year, we find ourselves reflecting on accomplishments and struggles while looking ahead to what comes next. For many, this leads to resolutions around improving diet, getting more exercise, and becoming better at work or relationships. Yet far too often in the process of committing to these changes, we miss the fundamental significance of improving our brain health and function. With this in mind, consider skipping the fad diets and quick-fix strategies and instead focusing on your brain. Here are three powerful and science-backed strategies to power your brain for success in the coming year. 

1. Cut out unnecessary brain-draining media.

Our brains are incredibly energetically demanding, comprising 3 percent of our body weight but using 20 percent of our energy in a given day. Most of that energy is used by our neurons, and the amount of energy they use is directly related to how much they are being used. This means that our brain’s energy and function are a reflection of where we direct our focus. 

If you’re like the average adult, most of your focus is going to be on the media around you. American adults, on average, spend upward of 11 hours of their day on screens and listening to the radio. While there’s plenty of healthy and valuable content on our screens and airwaves, it’s also the case that media content (especially news) has grown increasingly negative and sensationalized. 

Stressful and polarizing media content activates stress-responsive parts of our brains and may increase the risk for mood issues as well as damage our brain health and function. To this end, limiting your consumption of unnecessarily stressful, draining, sensationalized, and polarizing media may do wonders for your brain health. And, at a very basic level, removing the unhelpful content frees your brain up to consume the healthier stuff.

2. Consume more of the good stuff: healthy relationships and sleep.

One of the most impactful areas of brain research speaks to the brain benefits of very simple daily habits. Besides the usual (and important) topic of eating right for brain health, here’s why relationships and sleep are fundamental for better brain health. 

Quality relationships are clearly fundamental to overall health as well as brain health. Loneliness, for example, is thought to be a risk factor for worse mental health. In a recent observational study of over 12,000 people, loneliness correlated with a 40 percent increased risk of developing dementiaover a 10-year period. On the other hand, having more close friends late in life is linked to a significantly lower risk for dementia, suggesting a protective effect of close interpersonal bonds. When taken together, this research speaks to the value of cultivating and maintaining close friendships. How to put it into practice? Consider setting a regular phone date, plan a trip to see loved ones, and prioritize date nights (and even group video chats). 

When considering lifestyle factors associated with better brain function and health, sleep is all too often ignored. Yet we now know that poor sleep is a risk factor for everything from dementia to depression to worse decision-making. Getting better sleep may be one of the most important strategies we have for quickly achieving better brain health. The unfortunate reality is that despite this science, most people neglect to prioritize sleep. 

A number of simple steps can be used to help improve sleep quality. These range from minimizing artificial light in the hours before bed to minimizing caffeine consumption in the afternoon. However, if sleep issues are severe or don’t respond to basic lifestyle modification, it’s likely a good idea to seek professional help with consideration for a sleep study or other testing. 

3. Challenge your brain daily.

How can we take steps to constantly move our brains toward a better state? One of the most powerful tools is to perpetually challenge our brains. This can be as simple as entertaining or exploring an opposing ideological perspective. So don’t just be adventurous with travel and new foods; consider opening up space for compassionate conversations with people who have different viewpoints. Another example is learning a new language or practicing an instrument. Even consistent word puzzles (Wordle anyone?) may help keep your brain sharp. 

When we challenge our brains, we may help form new connections between neurons through the process of neuroplasticity (a neuroscience term for the brain’s ability to reshape itself throughout our lifespans). Research has even indicated that regularly exercising our brains may help to slow down and even prevent certain aspects of cognitive decline.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-modern-brain/202212/3-powerful-strategies-for-a-better-brain-in-2023