1. Sectors 10% Off Highs.

80% of Materials and 75% of Energy

2. Velocity of Money Making New Lows. Checking and Savings Accounts Record Highs…Velocity of Money Stuck.

What Is the Velocity of Money?–The velocity of money is a measurement of the rate at which money is exchanged in an economy. It is the number of times that money moves from one entity to another. It also refers to how much a unit of currency is used in a given period of time. Simply put, it’s the rate at which consumers and businesses in an economy collectively spend money.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/velocity.asp

3. Deutsche Bank Poll…Only 8% of Institutional Money Managers Think Evergrande is Significant Market Impact Event.

Jim Reid DB Bank

As we await to see what the reopening of Chinese markets brings tomorrow post holiday, our flash poll asking your opinion of what Evergrande will mean for global markets in a month’s time had over 700 response in two hours. So many thanks.

Only 8% of you felt it would be significantly impacting global financial markets by then with a combined 68% expecting limited or no impact.

So for now markets are generally of the view that notable contagion is highly unlikely.

To read more my colleague Craig Nicol has just put out a note (link here) about the contagion risk to the broader HY market. He sums it up nicely as to why we should care one way or another. “Evergrande is the largest corporate in the largest sector of the second largest economy in the world.”

4. Why is Shorting so Hard? Citron had First Short Report on Evergrande in 2012…Forensic Accounting Shorts Timing Impossible.

Evergrande’s potential debt blowup is ‘not a contagion’ event for the stock market, says the man who said the firm was insolvent 10 years ago

By  Mark DeCambre  Citron Research founder Andrew Left was feeling a modicum of vindication on Monday, as China’s Evergrande looked to be on the brink of collapse, sending shock waves through financial markets.

“Yeah, I feel vindicated,” he told MarketWatch, in a phone interview on Monday.

Back in 2012, Left accused the prominent property developer of engaging in aggressive accounting practices and charged that it was actually insolvent, based on his research.

Left said that China’s second-largest property developer’s balance sheet hasn’t changed very much since his original analysis of its problems, aside from the scale of the issues.

“Nothing has changed in the 10 years since that research … I just identified when the problems started,” Left told MarketWatch.

Evergrande 6666, +2.94% is nursing more than $300 billion in debt and holders of Evergrande’s approximately $19 billion in dollar-denominated bonds are left to wonder what will become of their investments, while Wall Street attempts to gauge the potential spillover effects a collapse could have on China’s property sector and global financial markets.

Left, however, sees the problem as likely one that will be contained by dint of China’s nature of controlling its economy and propensity to bail out embattled companies.

“So, they are going to do whatever they have to do” to contain the harm to the broader economy and limit spillover, Left explained. He said that investors here, however, aren’t likely to observe the wheels within the Chinese machinery moving because of Beijing’s tendency to operate behind a veil when it comes to business matters.

As The Wall Street Journal described it in a Friday article, China’s Evergrande Group turned billions of dollars in borrowed money “into the dream of homeownership for millions of Chinese citizens.”

However, that dream was funded on outsize loans that are coming due soon.

Evergrande faces an $83.5 million interest payment Sept. 23 on its March 2022 bonds and a $42.5 million payment on Sept. 29 on its March 2024 notes, according to news reports. Failure to settle those payments within 30 days of their due date would put Evergrande in default.

S&P Global Ratings on Monday said a default by Evergrande would cause more than mere ripples in financial markets, but would be unlikely to lead to a tidal wave of defaults.

Left believes that a likely intervention by China in Evergrande will limit any spillover, preventing potentially harmful ripples throughout global markets, he speculated. “They’ll just take more control of it,” Left said of China’s government regarding Evergrande. “It’s not a contagion event,” he said.

Almost a decade ago, the Citron Research founder was banned from trading in Hong Kong markets after losing a civil case against regulators related to his allegations about Evergrande. The legal dispute lasted more than half a decade and cost him millions.

Left said that his ban from the Hong Kong market lifts next month but it isn’t clear that he will do much investing there in any event.

“I got a complete black mark on me for saying everything that’s already turned out to be true,” he was quoted as saying in Institutional Investor last month. “It’s Hong Kong’s attempt to stifle the truth. They knew it was going to happen, but they didn’t need a short seller to say anything about it.”

Left told MarketWatch that part of the reason he believes that Evergrande has been allowed to become so highly levered is because of the prominence of its Chief Executive, Hui Ka Yan, who founded the company in 1996 in Guangzhou as Hengda Group.

“Obviously, China is overbuilt,” Left said of China’s property market. “But I think it is a problem that they let this guy run wild,” he said of the Evergrande CEO.

Hui boasts a personal fortune of around $10.7 billion, according to Forbes. Hui took Evergrande public in 2009 and he owns the majority of the company, according to reports.

The South China Morning Post last month reported that Hui stepped down as chairman of the closely held Hengda Real Estate Group, in a reshuffling that “raised concerns about his grip on his flagship China Evergrande Group.”

Worries about Evergrande were being blamed for a broad selloff in the market that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average on track for its worst daily fall since Oct. 28, 2020, according to data compiled by Dow Jones Market Data.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/evergrandes-potential-debt-blowup-is-not-a-contagion-event-for-the-stock-market-says-the-man-who-said-the-firm-was-insolvent-10-years-ago-11632165402?mod=home-page

5. Evergrande Default? Historically Largest Default.

Jim Reid -Deutsche Bank

As we wait to see how the Evergrande situation evolves it looks highly likely to be the largest global corporate bond default of 2021. It has just under $20bn of offshore bonds which rating agencies opine on.

For perspective today’s CoTD shows the largest global corporate bond default each year since 1994.

A near $20bn default would certainly be the largest globally so far this year. We can only find ones a fraction of this so far in 2021. However it’s not out of line with the scale of the post GFC largest defaults in each year.

However we would say that this will be a more complicated default in that Evergrande is a much more complicated structure than a typical corporate.

S&P and Bloomberg have cited total liabilities of up to $300bn covering trade payables, wealth management products, onshore bonds, bank loans etc.

From this list Enron and Lehman also had more complicated structures than a typical corporate bond default.

We would agree that the most likely scenario is that China controls the contagion. However it’s worth highlighting that this is likely to be the biggest global corporate bond default of the year and probably the most complicated structure of a global corporate default for at least a decade.

6. Dow Transports Close Below 200 day

Transports 13.6% Off Highs….breaks thru August lows.

www.stockcharts.com

7. Biggest Drop in Oil Supplies 3 Months.

Dave Lutz at Jones Trading Stockpiles at the Cushing storage hub declined 1.75 million barrels, the biggest drop in more than three months if confirmed by the EIA

8. IPO 2021…Number of IPOs and Proceeds Raised Already Above Previous Bull Market Yearly Highs.

Number of IPOs Above 2014 highs………….IPO Proceeds Above 2014 Highs

IPOs | 2021 Upcoming & Recently Priced IPOs – Renaissance Capital

9. International Markets Large Spreads in Returns Last 3 Months Due to China.

Frontier Markets (FM) +5.6%….Developed International Flat………Emerging Markets (EEM) -6.4%

www.yahoofinance.com

10. How to Be the Calmest Person in the Room

By Nick Papple | 04/8/2016 | 0 Comments

There are 13.5 seconds left on the clock in the NCAA Division I men’s basketball final. The North Carolina Tar Heels trail the Villanova Wild Cats by three points.

The Tar Heels inbound the ball to guard, Joel Berry, who dribbles up the court.

Just past half, senior, Marcus Paige cuts behind the three-point line. Berry fires a pass to Paige — just beating the hands of one Wild Cat defender.

Paige catches the ball, takes two dribbles, then shoots a contested off-balance three.

He makes it. The NRG Stadium erupts.

Now there are 4.7 seconds left on the clock and the score is tied, 74—74. Villanova inbounds the ball under pressure from the Tar Heels defense.

As the clock winds down, guard, Ryan Arcidiacono dribbles up the court, weaving past Tar Heel defenders.

Out of the corner of Arch’s eye, he sees teammate Kris Jenkins stepping into range behind the three-point line.

Arch makes a shovel pass to Jenkins, who without hesitation steps into the game-winning shot.

As the ball releases from Jenkins fingertips, time expires and the buzzer blares. The shot goes in and the Villanova Wild Cats are the 2016 Division I NCAA men’s basketball Champs.

Streamers and confetti pour down from the rafters, as fans scream and Charles Barkley jumps up and down.

Everyone loses it — except for one man. Head coach of the Villanova Wild Cats, Jay Wright.

Wright’s reaction is downright stoic. Ice — Cold.

Did people notice? You bet.

This Vine of Wright’s reaction has been viewed over 6,421,298 times as of writing this.

Today, we’re going to talk about something all great leaders possess.

John D. Rockefeller had it, Ulysses S. Grant had it, Jay Wright seems to have it, and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani has it too.

All great leaders have sangfroid: unflappable coolness under pressure.

I first heard this term used by Ryan Holiday in this article about John D. Rockefeller. When Rockefeller just started his career the financial panic of 1857 hit. While everyone was losing their chill, Rockefeller kept quiet, saved his money and watched what others did wrong. We all know how that turned out.

Another man who had sangfroid was Ulysses S. Grant. My favorite story is told again by Ryan Holiday in The Obstacle is the Way:

During the Overland Campaign, Grant was surveying the scene through field glasses when an enemy shell exploded, killing the horse immediately next to him. Grant’s eyes stayed fixed on the front, never leaving the glasses. 

Other than looking like the coolest guy in the room or battlefield, you might be wondering why you’d want to develop sangfroid?

The answer is simple: people who stay calm in high-pressure situations perform better than people who don’t.

Whether it’s sports, investing, debating, war — you name it. Research shows that in high-pressure situations the man who has sangfroid will have the advantage.

How Successful People Stay Calm

Dr. Travis Bradberry, author of the bestselling book Emotional Intelligence 2.0 and cofounder of TalentSmart an agency that studies human psychology found there are10 things anyone can do to steady their nerves in stressful situations.

To be honest, most of the things Bradberry recommends are uninspiring. Things like deep breathing, disconnecting from technology for 24 hours, using a support system, quashing negative self-talk. The kinds of things you know probably work, but will never actually do in a stressful situation.

I wanted to know why Ulysses S. Grant could stand next to a horse being blown up and not flinch. I doubt Grant was practicing deep breathing at the time, or pumping himself up with positive self-talk.

So I kept researching and found this interview with Simon Sinek (the Golden Circle guy). Sinek explains how most high-performers keep their cool and he uses a sports analogy — go figure. He says:

Performing under pressure, whether it’s me or anybody else, is the same. What I find fascinating is the interpretation of the stimuli. Let me explain. So I was watching the Olympics and I was amazed at how bad the questions were that the reporters were asking all the athletes. And almost always they would ask the same question. Whether they were about to compete or after they competed: Were you nervous? To a T, all the athletes went: No. What I realized is it’s not that they’re not nervous, it’s their interpretation of what’s happening in their bodies. What happens when you’re nervous? Your heart rate starts to go, your breathing shortens, you get a little tense, you get a little sweaty. You have expectations of what’s coming. You interpret that as I’m nervous.

Now what’s the interpretation of excited? Your heart rate starts to go, your breathing shortens, you get a little tense, you get a little sweaty. You have expectations of what’s coming. It’s all the same thing. It’s the same stimuli. Except these athletes have learned to interpret the stimuli that the rest of us would interpret as nervous, as excited. They all say the same thing: No, I’m not nervous. I’m excited.

One thing Dr. Bradberry does mention in his 10 things is reframing. He explains that people who manage their cool know how to reframe and put their problems into perspective. This is similar to what Sinek recommends, which ultimately is the key to automatic sangfroid.

After the game on Monday night, Villanova coach Jay Wright was asked about his cold reaction to the win. Here’s what he said:

You know when you’re a coach you’re just always thinking about the next play. I was really thinking is there going to be more time on the clock. And I’m the adult. And I’ve got all these 18-and 22-year olds around me. And they’re going to go crazy. And I’m going to have to get them gathered up here and we’re going to have to defend a play with 0.7 seconds. That’s what I was thinking.

Wright’s frame of mind was different than everyone else. When I heard this, it reminded me of what former Mayor of New York City Rudy Giuliani said in an interview right after 9/11. Giuliani had to lead 20 of his panicked co-workers out of an office building on 9/11. When asked by reporters how he kept his cool, Giuliani said:

My father taught me when I was very young, that if you’re ever in an emergency, become calm. Become the calmest person in the room and if you do, you have the best chance of surviving. I don’t know why he taught me that but he did.

Nick Papple
Managing Editor
The Daily Brief

https://www.earlytorise.com/calmest-person-room/

1. China Sovereign 5 Yr CDS Blowout.

I may have jumped gun yesterday on calmness of China money market chart…..CDS Blowing Out.

BY TYLER DURDEN-ZEROHEDGE

One glance at global markets this morning suggests, at a minimum, that risk is being de-grossed across everything from European utilities to cryptos to US materials stocks.

However, the biggest – and ultimate-est – contagion is that of China’s sovereign risk itself… and that is starting to blow out…

This sudden surge in default risk on China’s sovereign debt is very significant in the context of China’s constant reassurance to the rest of the world that it is solid-as-a-rock (just as Larry fink, but don’t ask George Soros). However, we do note that China CDS spiked to around 90bps in March 2020 (as the COVID crisis hit) and around 150bps in early 2016 (accelerating after China devalued the yuan in late 2015).

The question is, of course, where will this stop this time? How much ‘risk’ is China willing to take with its sovereign risk?

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ultimate-contagion-china-sovereign-risk-starting-blow-out

2.China Real Estate ETF -44% from Highs.

CHIR ETF trading at half of book value.

www.stockcharts.com

3.China Internet ETF Holding Previous Low

KWEB China Internet ETF held August low…..August low was above previous Covid low see March 2020 on chart

www.stockcharts.com

China Small Caps holding up relatively well…15% off highs…50day still well above 200day on chart

www.stockcharts.com

4.Money Market Funds 2021 vs. 2008 Great Financial Crisis.

5.Hedge Fund Bets on Higher Commodities Falls to 11 Month Low.

Speculators slashed wagers on further price gains for agricultural markets such as soybeans, corn and hogs, and turned actively bearish on wheat, amid an improved supply outlook. That more than offset an increase in bullish bets, particularly in energy markets, as disruptions in U.S. production following two hurricanes led to a surge in prices during the past few weeks, Bloomberg reports.

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading

6.Producer Price Index +8.8% vs. Consumer Price Index +5.5%…Something has to give, either producers have to pass on price increases or commodities have to come down in price.

Producer Prices +8.8%

Producer Prices +8.8%

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PPIACO

7.2021-Share of Oil Reserves by Country….93.5% from 14 Countries.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranking-the-countries-with-the-largest-proven-global-oil-reserves-in-the-world/

8.Cybersecurity Job Growth.

In the United States alone, jobs for Information Security Analysts are expected to grow by 15% by 2024.

https://www.franklin.edu/blog/is-a-masters-degree-in-cyber-security-worth-it

https://www.indeed.com/lead/cybersecurity-outlook-2019

9.College graduate starting salaries are at an all-time high—and these 10 majors earn the most

Abigail Johnson Hess@ABIGAILJHESS

Despite a global pandemic that caused massive unemployment and slashed earnings among working-class Americans, starting salaries for recent college graduates continue to rise.

According to a recent report from the National Association of Colleges and Employers, the average starting salary for the college Class of 2020 was $55,260 — 2.5% higher than that of the Class of 2019 ($53,889 ) and 8.5% higher than the Class of ’18 ($50,944).

Among graduates who majored in science, technology, engineering and mathematics fields, average earnings were even higher.

“In some cases, salary increases most likely reflect these unique times,” says Shawn VanDerziel, NACE executive director. “For example, the increased demand for nurses as front-line workers during the Covid-19 pandemic may have fueled the 2.1% increase in the average starting salary for registered nursing majors, from $57,416 for these graduates from the Class of 2019 to $58,626 for Class of 2020 registered nursing graduates.”

“Technical majors typically are the highest paid as they are usually the highest in-demand,” explains Andrea J. Koncz, NACE research manager. “Also, as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic and the greater need for technology in the new ‘virtual world’ that we live and work, the computer-related majors account for 4 of the top 10 paying bachelor’s degrees from the Class of 2020.”

This trend has also been observed by other researchers.

A recent analysis of Department of Education data of 2.2 million college students who graduated in 2015 and 2016 and their early career earnings by public policy group Third Way found that STEM degrees provide some of the highest return on investment for graduates.

STEM degrees “tend to have the strongest job prospects, so they can start earning a lot of money right after graduating,” Third Way senior fellow Michael Itzkowitz tells CNBC Make It.

Beyond highlighting the financial benefits of earning an advanced degree, the pandemic has also shed light on how educational opportunity impacts the physical health of Americans.

According to a March study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, life expectancy for the two-thirds of Americans without a college degree is declining — creating a growing gap in life expectancy between those with and without a secondary education.

“When you look at the data, you see life expectancy rising until 2012, and then it starts going down for people without a B.A.,” Sir Angus Deaton, professor of economics at USC and Princeton University and one of the study’s co-authors, previously told CNBC Make It. “The decrease in life expectancy is happening not to everybody, but to Americans who do not have a four-year college degree. There is a huge educational divide.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/01/college-graduate-starting-salaries-are-at-an-all-time-high.html?utm_content=Main&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1632137790

10.10 Surprising Things Successful Leaders Do Differently

Kevin Kruse

ContributorOver the last three years, I’ve interviewed over 200 highly successful CEO’s, military officers, entrepreneurs and leadership gurus including John C. Maxwell, Ken Blanchard, Stephen M.R. Covey, Liz Wiseman, Kim Scott, Patty McCord and others. I always get them to reveal their number one secret to leadership; what advice would they give to a younger version of themselves? After analyzing their answers 10 themes emerged.

#1 Great Leaders Close Their Open Door Policy

Open door policies are passive ways to facilitate communication and do more harm than good. They make deep work and strategic thinking virtually impossible for the manager. Worse, research shows that half of all employees won’t go through the open door with problems or ideas because they fear repercussions. It’s time to close your door and open your calendar. Recurring, weekly one-on-one meetings are a far better way to proactively facilitate communication, and pre-scheduled “office hours”—perhaps an hour each day—is the best way to facilitate time-sensitive communication. 

#2 Great Leaders Don’t Bring Smartphones Into Meetings

PROMOTED

If you use your smartphone in meetings, research from the University of Southern California’s Marshall School of Business suggests your colleagues probably think you’re being rude or unprofessional. Seventy-five percent of those surveyed thought it was inappropriate to read or write texts or emails in meetings, and 22% think it’s inappropriate to use the phone at all in any kind of meeting. And in a study titled “The Pen Is Mightier Than the Keyboard”, researchers discovered that when it comes to comprehension and memory, taking notes by hand was far superior to typing notes on a keyboard. To avoid distraction, to remain mindful and present, and to maximize recall, a leader should leave their smartphone in their desk and use good old fashioned pen and notebooks in meetings.

#3 Great Leaders Have No Rules

Every time we bump into a rule, it takes away a chance for us to make a choice or a decision. And it becomes “your” company, not mine.  Rules crowd out conversation. Managers become rule enforcers instead of leaders. Instead of rules, have standards or guardrails that are rooted in company values. Use these standards as topics of discussion starting with recruiting and onboarding, and continuing throughout the employee life cycle. And when someone deviates from the values–the standards–well that’s a time for some feedback, that’s a coachable moment. Strive to model the Netflix culture of freedom with accountability.

#4 Great Leaders Are Likable, Not Liked

Are you a people pleaser? It’s normal to want to be liked, but it’s a problem if you have a need to be liked. A need to be liked causes managers to withhold direct, constructive feedback. It can lead to delayed decision making in the hopeless quest to get universal agreement. You don’t need to act like a jerk at work, but realize that your team members don’t need another friend, they need a leader who will coach them and advance their career, who will make the sometimes tough decisions to protect the team or advance the company. Replace your need to be liked, with a need to lead right.  And replace your need to be liked by everyone, with the realization that if you are liked by your family and close friends, that’s enough.

#5 Great Leaders Lead With Love

Yes, I say leaders should love their team members. The Greeks called it agape; Professors Sigal Barsade and Olivia O’Neill call it companionate love. It’s the warmth, connection and caring we feel for humankind–absent the passionate kind of love. Leaders who care about their team members and show it achieve high employee engagement and business outcomes. Remember the words of the legendary basketball coach, John Wooden. He would tell his players, “I will not like you all the same, but I will love you all the same.”

#6 Great Leaders Crowd Their Calendar

Great leaders are obsessed with minutes. They know that every minute wasted or freely given away is another minute that can’t be spent coaching their team or on getting results. For best results, throw out your to-do list, and schedule everything. Identify your daily most important task and schedule it first thing in the morning (before interruptions and while you are cognitively at your best). Pre-schedule time to lead; schedule your recurring weekly one-on-one’s, your quarterly town-halls, your twice a year career path meetings. What about downtime? What about time to think? Yes, schedule that too. Great leaders, including LinkedIn CEO Jeff  Weiner, actually schedule “nothing” time.

#7 Great Leaders Play Favorites

In a misguided attempt to be impartial and fair, too many managers treat all their team members the same. But it turns out that’s the most unfair thing we can do to people. And it’s the fastest way for you to lose top talent. Instead of treating everyone alike, you need to learn to individualize your leadership approach. You need to take the time to understand each of our team members when it comes to their: talent, experience, attitudes, strengths and goals. Then you play favorites, not based on who you like better, but based on who’s earned it.

#8 Great Leaders Reveal Everything

In traditional organizations information flowed “up” and the decisions came “down,” but to compete now, we have to replace “knowledge is power” to “sharing is power.” In his book Team of Teams, U.S. Army general Stanley McChrystal explained that radical transparency was a key to defeating Al Qaeda in Iraq because it enabled decision making to be pushed to the very lowest levels. In business, radical transparency means sharing everything, including all the financials needed to understand what makes the business work.

#9 Great Leaders Show Weakness

“Will you tell me about a time you failed?” It’s the first question I ask all my guests on the LEADx Leadership podcast. From Dan Pink and Captain Sully Sullenberger to Alan Alda and John Maxwell, I ask them to start with failure. Too many old school leaders believe “leadership is acting” or we must always wear a mask to project confidence and optimism. The best leaders today realize that authenticity and vulnerability are the fastest ways to earn trust. And as Stephen M.R. Covey told me, “Trust is the one thing that changes everything.” I’m not talking about striving to shed tears and share fears. That’s an inauthentic way of being authentic. Share your past failures as learning experiences. Share the bad news with the good. Drop your mask and be your unique self.  

#10 Great Leaders Know: Leadership Is Not a Choice

The greats all agree that leadership in a word is: influence. And we know from behavioral psychology that we are always influencing those around us. You influence when you stand up to the bully, but also when you remain a bystander. You influence when you challenge the idea in the conference room, and also when you remain silent. Leadership isn’t a choice, because you are leading (i.e., influencing) all of the time. This means you are leading not just at work but also at the dinner table, and on the sidelines of the soccer field. But are you leading in a positive direction or a negative direction? Be mindful of your power as a leader. Remember, lead with intent.

Tying It All Together

Whether you are a front-line supervisor, middle manager, or senior executive, these 10 secrets will help you to become both the boss everyone wants to work for and the high achiever every CEO wants to hire–all without drama, stress, and endless hours in the office.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kevinkruse/2019/04/02/10-surprising-things-successful-leaders-do-differently/?sh=3b458c901243

1. Crypto Now $2.5 Trillion Market…6500 Total Cryptos.

Barrons

Inside the Coming War Over Digital Currencies—and What It Means for Your MoneyBy 

Daren Fonda

https://www.barrons.com/articles/coming-war-money-cryptos-51631845330?mod=past_editions

2. The CRB Commodity Index hit a 6-year high this week and is up 122% from its low in 2020.

@CharlieBilello

3. S&P Dividend and Treasury Yields Are Nearly Identical

Bespoke-On February 25th of this year, the 10-Year Treasury yield surpassed the dividend yield of the S&P 500 for the first time since January 17th, 2020.  Currently, the S&P 500’s dividend yield stands at 1.33% vs. the 10-Year’s yield of 1.31%, so they’re essentially right inline with each other at the moment.

Since 1971, the 10-Year yield has been higher than that of the S&P 90.7% of the time, and the median spread between the 10-Year yield and the S&P’s dividend yield has been +3.5 percentage points. Both yields are much lower than their typical level since 1970. The S&P’s dividend yield has been higher than its current level 94.62% of the time. As for the 10-Year Treasury, its yield has been higher 97.55% of the time.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/sp-dividend-and-treasury-yields-are-nearly-identical

4. Shanghai and Baltic Freight Index Unprecedented Increase in Shipping Costs.

“The supply chain challenges have only worsened of late,” BofA economists wrote.

BOFA GLOBAL RESEARCH REPORT FROM SEPT. 17 2021

Marketwatch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/inflation-challenges-stock-market-underpinnings-as-investors-look-ahead-to-fed-meeting-11631971001?mod=home-page

5. But…..S&P Air Freight & Logistics Index Correcting

Supply Chain….-12% correction from highs…right on 200 day moving average

www.stockcharts.com

6. Door Dash Worth as Much as Uber

Chartr.com blog

 www.chartr.com

7. Another Trend Working Against Office Space….38% of Co2 Emissions are Buildings.

Buildings, not cars, are the biggest source of carbon emissions

Source: Global Alliance for Buildings and Construction, 2020 Global Status Report. Data includes all CO2 emissions in 2019.

Beyond the FAANGs: Tech savvy companies in non-tech sectors

https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/beyond-faangs-tech-savvy-companies.html

8. No Signs of Stress in Chinese Money Market Funds….With Recent Political Over Reach and Property Blow Up….No Systemic Stress.

LPL Research As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, China’s money markets aren’t showing any signs of systemic risk. These tend to be the canary in the coal mine, and the fallout appears to be fairly contained as of now.

View enlarged chart.

Why Evergrande Isn’t The Next Lehman

9. United States: The Treasury curve has been flattening at the longer end, which may signify falling inflation expectations

The Daily Shot Blog

Source: Guggenheim

https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-september-17th-2021/

10. The 7 Keys to Real Success

Psychology Today Lawrence R. Samuel Ph.D.

The 7 Keys to Real Success

Adopting an alternative narrative of success can lead to greater happiness.

KEY POINTS

• Society heavily defines achievement, acquisitions, and upward mobility as success.
• Research has shown outer-directed measures of success to be less correlated with contentment and satisfaction in life than inner-directed ones. 
• Adopting an alternative narrative of success may be more likely to lead to happiness.

By all the usual measures, I have a friend who might be considered an unsuccessful person. In her early 30s, she’s had no career and has never been in a serious relationship. Her professional and personal lives have never taken off, something of which she is keenly aware but doesn’t seem too bothered by.

By a different set of measures, however, I would say this woman is very successful. She’s intelligent and funny and is known in the neighborhood as a kind and generous person. She spends a lot of time caring for her mother, with whom she lives, and walks dogs and babysits to make some money. While she can’t afford luxuries, she’s well-liked, happy, and spends her time as she wishes.

My friend’s case nicely illustrates the complexities attached to the subject of success in America. Our classic narrative of success is heavily defined by achievement, acquisitions, and upward mobility. Those who don’t subscribe to those measures, whether by choice or otherwise, are often (and mistakenly) cast as losers. Those who’ve amassed the primary symbols of success—a well-paying job, a nice home, and traditional family life—are generally seen as the winners.

However, anecdotal and hard evidence shows that the so-called winners are no happier than the so-called losers. In fact, according to several research studies, outer-directed measures of success are less correlated with contentment and satisfaction in life than inner-directed ones. Still, recognized experts continue to prescribe the recipes of and for externally defined success, reinforcing the classic narrative.

I propose an alternative narrative of success that is more likely to lead to happiness than the one we have been taught to embrace. There are seven keys to real success, I believe, which are as follows:

1.   Rejecting the standard model predicated on money, power, and fame.In America, we equate money, power, and fame with success, making it no surprise that many are in hot pursuit of one or more of them. Besides the fact that most of us fail in this pursuit, realizing any of them rarely delivers the kind of happiness we expected them to.

2.   Avoiding comparisons to others. Stacking your achievements, no matter how significant, against those of others is an unwinnable proposition. There is always someone else who has accomplished bigger and/or better things, making it unwise to view success in relative terms.

3.   Taking a holistic view of yourself. Rather than focus on your career or personal life, it’s more productive to see yourself as a complete individual. Each of us is unique in our own way, leading to the unarguable truth that no one is more successful of being you than you.

4.   Celebrating your victories, no matter how big or small. Many of us are hesitant to declare victory when we achieve something worthy, always waiting for a bigger victory to happen. Instead of entering this purgatorial state of success, relish every victory that comes your way.

5.   Accepting failures. Failing to reach the desired goal is entirely normal, as it is the chase rather than the capture that offers more fulfillment. Take comfort in the fact that the average major league baseball getting paid millions of dollars a year gets a hit one in four times and will get into the Hall of Fame if he can do it one in three chances.

6.   Prioritizing relationships with other people. Our model of success is overwhelmingly me-centric, i.e., grounded in individualism and serving one’s self-interests. More than anything else, however, humans are social organisms, suggesting that success should be defined in how we relate to and ideally improve the lives of others.

7.   Leaving something behind. I’m a big believer in legacy, meaning what remains of us after our bodies are no more. In the big scheme of things, we’re here for a relatively short period of time, making it important that our lives continue to resonate for as long as possible.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/future-trends/202109/the-7-keys-real-success

1. Tencent Holdings Market Cap Shrinks by Almost $400B

Tencent Holding 200 day moving average going back to 2019

Tencent Music $30 to $9

www.stockcharts.com

2. Index of Macau/China Casinos Hits 2016 Levels

These Charts Show Impact of China’s Casino Crackdown on Macau By Joanna Ossingerand David Ingles

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-16/these-charts-show-impact-of-china-s-casino-crackdown-on-macau?sref=GGda9y2L

3. Retail Sales Breakdown

https://doubleline.com/podcast/mmm-episode-32-sep-7-10-macro-market-recap-eviction-elucidation-janets-alarm-bells/

4. Household Appliance Prices Rise the Most in 10 Years …Rising Steel Costs.

WSJ-The higher costs are already hitting consumers, especially for products like cars and appliances. Household appliance prices rose by 6.8% in August, the highest year-over-year increase in a decade, according to Labor Department data.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/high-steel-prices-have-manufacturers-scrounging-for-supplies-11631698202?mod=itp_wsj&ru=yahoo

Steel ETF SLX sideways since March

www.stockcharts.com

5. Growth vs Value was Following 1998-2001 Market Exactly….But See Divergence as the Government Turned Up the Stimulus.

Ben Carlson Blog

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/09/animal-spirits-the-crypto-gateway-drug/

6.18-34 Year Old’s Opinion on Sustainability and Work

Value Walk https://www.valuewalk.com/

7. Wall Street Whistleblowers Awarded $1B Since 2012

Wall Street’s newest millionaires are whistleblowers

• The SEC announced awards ranging from $4 million to $110 million paid to Wall Street whistleblowers.
• In total, the watchdog program has paid $1 billion, awarding 207 whistleblowers since 2012. 
• But not all whistleblowers hit it big — and some never see a single dollar. 

The US Securities and Exchange Commission just paid two multi-million dollar awards to Wall Street whistleblowers, according to a statement released Wednesday. The payouts of $110 million and $4 million bring the agency’s whistle-blowing awards to a total of $1 billion. A record-breaking payment of $114 million was awarded last October. “The whistleblower program has been instrumental to the success of numerous enforcement actions since it was instituted a decade ago,” said Gurbir S. Grewal, the SEC’s Director of Division of Enforcement.”We hope that today’s announcement encourages whistleblowers to continue to come forward with credible information about potential violations of the securities laws.”A total of 207 whistleblowers have received payouts from the SEC since the program began in 2012. In order to qualify for an award, the information provided to the agency must be “original, timely, and credible” and result in “a successful enforcement action.” All watchdog payments are financed through sanctions paid to the SEC by securities law violators. The awards can be anywhere from 10% to 30% of the money collected from the guilty party if the sanctions exceed $1 million, according to the SEC. But not all whistleblowers hit it big — and some never see a single dollar. John McPherson, a whistleblower who aided the SEC’s investigation into an alleged $1.4 billion scam at Life Partners Holdings Inc., received zero compensation from the agency, The Wall Street Journal reported this June. The lack of payment was due to a controversial SEC rule that states whistleblowers cannot be paid if the guilty party declares bankruptcy, which is a common outcome for fraudulent companies. Effective December of last year, the SEC amended the whistleblower program rules to clarify that awards cannot be sourced from private actions such as bankruptcy. 

https://www.businessinsider.com/new-wall-street-millionaires-are-whistleblowers-sec-payouts-2021-9

8. Education Spending by Country

Statista

9. Top 10 Markets for Rent Growth

As rents skyrocket, here is where they’re rising the most. It’s NOT New York or San Francisco-By Jacob Passy 

 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-rents-skyrocket-here-is-where-theyre-increasing-the-most-hint-its-not-new-york-or-san-francisco-11631804785?mod=home-page

10. How Purpose Could Be Key to Work Wellness

Being happy at work may depend on it, says best-selling author Daniel Goleman. Daniel Goleman, author of the best seller Emotional Intelligence, and host of the podcast First Person Plural: Emotional Intelligence and Beyond, is a regular contributor to Korn Ferry. His latest book, Altered Traits: Science Reveals How Meditation Changes Your Mind, Brain, and Body, is available now. 

The new thinking about wellbeing goes beyond what we’ve traditionally considered “good for us.” I look to  Richard Davidson’s research on wellbeing for the definitive word. A neuroscientist and the founder of the Center for Healthy Minds at the University of Wisconsin, Davidson and his colleagues have developed a framework for wellbeing that has purpose as one of its four pillars.

Davidson’s work builds on decades of research. This research has shown that a sense of meaning in life has been associated with a range of positive physical and psychological outcomes, including, among many benefits, increased physical activity; decreased chances of a stroke; better cardiovascular health; reduced risk of death; better financial health; psychological resilience; and healthier psychological functioning.

Given the state of the world and the growing issue of burnout in the workplace, it’s worth taking a closer look at what Davidson means when talking about purpose. In particular, what kinds of purpose actually bolster our physical, mental and emotional health?

In the most simple terms, Davidson and his colleagues define purpose as the degree to which we understand our aims and values, and how well we are able to embody them in our daily lives.

Aims inform our goals and allow us to establish an overarching narrative that can help us make sense of our lives. Values guide our behaviors— they help us assess people and situations and assist us in persevering through challenges by keeping us oriented to what we feel is important.

Purpose can be either heightened or diminished. Take the example of an oncologist. An oncologist’s aim is to eliminate cancer, prevent it from returning, and help patients live longer, more fulfilling lives. To do this, they might be guided by values such as compassion, collaboration, or patient-centered care.

In a state of heightened purpose the oncologist not only understands these aims and values, but also has the opportunity to act on them. The combination of both knowing and acting allows the oncologist to feel their pursuit has meaning and significance. Whether or not they meet their aim, the oncologist feels a sense of meaning and wellbeing just by aligning with these values. In other words, even if the aim is too aspirational to accomplish in every circumstance, the very act of being compassionate, collaborative, and patient centered leaves the oncologist feeling fulfilled (and no doubt improves patient satisfaction, too).

In a state of diminished purpose, oncologists feels something different. Either they aren’t totally clear on their values and aims; or they are clear but lack the environment to express them.

In one way, this may seem simple. The more we know our aims and values and the more we can live them, the better off we are. But when it comes to wellbeing—to reaping the full benefits of purpose— not all aims and values are created equal.

A study of more than 25,000 young adults from 58 countries found that intrinsically meaningful values, things related to social connections and contributing to one’s community, more strongly correlated with wellbeing than outward-facing values, like those related to power and financial gain. Although the nature of these relationships varied across countries and cultures, the findings all point back to something very important. When it comes to feeling good in the world, money and status are not enough. If we are going to reap the full benefits of purpose, values have to be self-transcendent; they must involve others.

What does this mean for individuals and organizations?

In the simplest terms, it means thinking about our aims and values in the context of helping others. Health, joy, and happiness—in our lives and in our workplaces—may ultimately depend on finding ways to be of service to the world around us. 

Click here to learn more about Daniel Goleman’s Building Blocks of Emotional Intelligence.  

https://www.kornferry.com/insights/this-week-in-leadership/how-purpose-could-be-the-key-to-work-wellness