1. Options Traders Bearish on Tech Stocks…Contra Indicator?

Options traders are betting on tech trouble – The aggregated put/call ratio among Nasdaq 100 members is the highest it’s been in over a year says SentimentTrader Dave Lutz at Jones Trading.

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2. Shanghai to LA Container Prices Topping Out??

Lastly, below are very recent updates on supply chains, order books, and consumer demand that keep us constructive on the “sequential supply chain improvement” narrative post-Q3 cuts, in the context of a “persistent demand” macro:

• White House to announce LA port will operate 24/7 to help clear backlog.
• Target sets up night operations to help cut key ports’ backlog (moving ~50% of its containers at night in LA and Long Beach).
• White House to review expanding allowable driving hours for truckers.
• Intel and Samsung finalizing plans for full capacity resumption at Ho Chi Minh manufacturing facility.
• Shanghai to LA container rates have begun to decline from peak levels.
• Russia says it will supply Europe with as much gas as it needs during current shortages.
• US jobless claims hit 292K for the first week of October, well below consensus (320K) and hitting a post-pandemic low.
• TSM strong earnings assuage concerns that the semi cycle is peaking/rolling over.
• Jefferies semi supply chain expert call noted continued robust/broad-based demand with strong backlogs into Q4/Q1.
• JPM noted T&E spend +8% vs. 3Q19, with acceleration in September as Delta cases declined.

Source: Jefferies Trading Desk

Percy Allison

Jefferies LLC

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3. Frontier Markets Crushing Emerging YTD.

Frontier Market ETF FM…Breakout on volume

 

Frontier Markets +24% YTD vs. Emerging Markets Flat ….FM vs. EEM YTD Chart

www.yahoofinance.com

Sector and Regional Breakdown Frontier Markets

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4. Investors Abandoned Dirty Energy Across the Board….Public markets, Private markets, Endowments, etc.….

XLE Old Energy ETF Crushing Clean Energy YTD

Energy crisis? What experts are saying as world faces historic energy-price crunchBy Mark DeCambre  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/energy-crisis-what-experts-are-saying-as-world-faces-historic-energy-price-crunch-11634161109?mod=home-page

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5. Private Financial Assets as a % of GDP Hyperbolic Rise Since Late 90’s……….Quantitative Easing and 30+ Year Bond Bull Market Drove this Chart

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6. Up to Date Hedge Fund Returns Since 2013

Raoul Pal Global Macro

https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

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7. Number of Active Satellites 2020 More than Previous 50 Years

https://www.statista.com/statistics/897719/number-of-active-satellites-by-year/

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8. Demograpics is Destiny….New American Household Makeup

An interesting analysis of census data from Pew Research Center reveals the changing makeup of American households.

The decline in marriage rates across the US — and many other countries — has been well documented. In 1990, 67% of the US population aged 25-54 were living with their spouse. Today that number is 53%.

But what’s interesting is that, although there are more people living with partners than before, they don’t explain the total drop in the married population. Indeed, the number of “unpartnered” adults — those not married nor living with a partner — has gone up, to almost 40% of the population of the 25-54 demographic

www.chartr.com

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9. Natural Gas Demand by Sector and Region 2019-2021

IEA.ORG

https://www.iea.org/fuels-and-technologies/gas

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10.4 Causes of Knee Pain and 6 Exercises to Help.4 Causes of Knee Pain and 6 Exercises to Help Reduce that Pain

on September 07, 2021

Pete McCall Acefitness.corg You know the feeling—you put off getting out of your seat or avoid walking downstairs because when you do, you experience a lot of pain or discomfort in your knees. The pain could be short-term, as a result of bumping it against a hard surface or long-term, caused by a significant or traumatic injury. Or it could be the result of a chronic condition such as arthritis, or specific movements that place a lot of stress on the structures of the joint.

Regardless of the cause of the pain, there are lower-body exercises that can strengthen the hip and glute muscles with minimal stress on the structures of the knee joint. However, if the pain continues for a period of 10 days, it’s probably time to schedule an appointment with your doctor to make sure there is not a significant injury. This article identifies four possible causes of knee pain and describes six exercises that could help to reduce knee pain.

Possible Causes of Knee Pain

Ligament Damage

A traumatic injury, such as tearing one of the ligaments that connects the femur bone of the thigh to the tibia bone of the lower leg, is a common cause of knee pain. The anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) can be injured as the result of making a rapid change of direction; if the upper body goes in one direction and the foot doesn’t move with it, it is often the ACL that is ruptured as a result. The medial-collateral and lateral-collateral ligaments run along the inside and outside of the knee, respectively, and could also be damaged or torn as the result of the lower and upper legs moving in opposite directions.

Injury to a Meniscus

Bones do not touch one another because joint capsules contain synovial fluid and cartilage, which act as a cushion between the bones. The knee joint contains two menisci, medial and lateral, which are C-shaped sections of connective tissue that cushion the forces between the condyles of the femur and the upper section of the tibia. A subluxation occurs when a joint does not track properly through its intended path of motion; think of a kitchen drawer that sticks and doesn’t work properly. If there is a subluxation in the knee and the joint doesn’t function properly, it could stress one of the ligaments or compress one of the menisci, causing damage to the structures that results in pain.

Often, the knee itself is not the cause of pain, but it is where pain occurs as the result of either the hip or the ankle not functioning to the best of their ability.

Weak Hip Muscles

The knee collapsing toward the midline of the body while walking or running could be due to a lack of lateral stability from the hip and is another possible source of pain. The gluteus medius muscle connects the pelvis to the lateral portion of the femur. It has fibers on both the anterior and posterior sections of the bone and can create the actions of abduction, moving the upper leg away from the midline of the body, as well as both internal and external rotation. While the gluteus medius can move the leg away from the body, its primary function is to create stability when the body is balanced on a single leg during the mid-stance phase of the gait cycle while walking or running. If the gluteus medius does not do an efficient job of stabilizing the femur, the knee could collapse to the midline of the body, which creates a subluxation,stresses the ligaments and menisci, and ultimately results in pain.

Lack of Ankle Mobility

Dorsiflexion is motion at the ankle joint, where the top of the foot moves closer to the tibia bone (commonly called the shin). Dorsiflexion occurs naturally when the body passes over the foot during the mid-stance phase of gait. If the ankle does not have the proper mobility to allow dorsiflexion as the body passes over the foot, it could cause the foot to turn out and the knee to collapse to allow this phase of the gait cycle to occur in the absence of adequate ankle mobility. In other words, if the ankle is lacking proper mobility it will cause other joints to be more mobile (the knee) to make up for the deficiency and allow movement such as walking to occur.

During squats or lunges, if the ankle does not have the proper mobility, these movements could cause the knee to move forward. If the knee moves too far forward during the downward phase of the squat or lunge, the femur bone of the thigh could push into the patella bone (kneecap) and create strain on the patellar ligament that connects the femur to the patella and tibia bones.

6 Exercises to Help Reduce Knee Pain

The following exercises can strengthen the hips and thighs, specifically the glutes, adductors, hamstrings and quadriceps muscles, which control the motion of the hips and knees. The focus of each exercise is to engage the hips while allowing only a limited amount of motion in the knee. In the case of the lunges, the fact that the body is moving backward causes most of the force of the exercise to move into the glutes, which strengthens those muscles, as opposed to  moving into the knees and causing strain on the patellar tendon. These links provide additional information about how the hamstrings and adductors function to control motion of the hips and knees.

Glute Bridges

Lie flat on your back with your hands by your sides so that your palms are turned up facing the ceiling. Position your feet away from your glutes with your toes pulled up toward your shins. Squeeze your glutes as you press your heels into the floor and push your hips up toward the ceiling. Perform 15-20 reps, rest for 45 seconds, and complete two to four sets.

To increase the intensity, perform hip thrusts by placing a weight over the top of the hips or place a mini-band just below the knees. For hip thrusts, the weight causes the glutes to work harder, which increases their strength; this article discusses the benefits of the hip thrust exercise. A mini-band placed just above the knees will pull the knees closer together, which means the gluteus medius on each leg has to work harder to keep this motion from happening.

Standing Hip Extensions With Mini-band

If it’s hard to get down on the floor, this is a great move for strengthening the glutes to create more stability at the knee. Place a mini-band around both ankles. Press your right foot into the floor to create stability while pushing your left heel straight back to extend your left hip. Perform 15-20 reps and then switch legs; complete two to four sets.

Standing Hip Thrust With Power Band

Connect a power band to a solid anchor. Step inside so that the band is positioned on the bony points of the pelvis and the anchor point is behind you. Place your hands on your head, behind your ears, and keep a slight bend in the knees. Maintain a long spine as you push your tailbone back while hinging at the hips. Perform 15-20 reps, rest for 45 seconds, and complete two to four sets. To increase the intensity, hold one dumbbell in each hand while completing the hip thrusts.

Reverse Lunge

Stand with your feet hip-width apart. Step backward with your left leg while sinking into your right hip. To increase the activation of the glute, lean forward slightly while maintaining a long spine. To return to the starting point, straighten your right knee while swinging the left leg forward to the starting point. Perform 10-12 repetitions on the right side before switching legs. Rest for 45-60 seconds and complete two to four sets. To increase the intensity, hold one dumbbell in each hand while completing the lunges.

Reverse Lunge to Balance

Follow the directions for the reverse lunge, but at the top of the movement press your right foot into the floor and squeeze your right glute while balancing on your right leg for 4-5 seconds. Complete 10-12 reps on the right hip before switching to the other leg. Rest for 45-60 seconds and complete two to four sets. To increase the intensity, hold one dumbbell in each hand while completing the lunges.

Lateral Step-up to Balance

Use a step or box that is approximately knee height or lower. Place the step or box to the right of your body, set your right foot on top of the box and press down to step up to the box. At the top of the step, balance on your right leg for 4-5 seconds before lowering lower the left leg to the floor and return to the starting position. Complete 10-12 repetitions on the right leg before switching to the other leg. Rest for 45-60 seconds and complete two to four sets. To increase the intensity, hold one dumbbell in each hand while completing the step-ups.

Unless you have experienced a traumatic injury that damaged the structures of the knee, it is nearly impossible to identify the exact causes of knee pain. However, knowing which exercises could help to reduce pain can make sure that having a sore knee doesn’t keep you from participating in your favorite activities. The good news is that common causes of knee pain could be mitigated by developing strong glute and hip muscles.

AUTHOR

Pete McCall

Health and Fitness Expert

Pete McCall, MS, CSCS, is an ACE Certified Personal Trainer and long-time player in the fitness industry. He has been featured as an expert in the Washington Post, The New York Times, Los Angeles Times, Runner’s World and Self. He holds a master’s degree in exercise science and health promotion, and several advanced certifications and specializations with NSCA and NASM.

1. Sector Breakdown on Breadth….Above 50 day and 200 day.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-set-steady-start-earnings-232622899.html

2. Consumer Prices Return to 2008 Levels.

Barrons https://www.barrons.com/

3. Nobody Wants Cash Flow…Consumer Staples Sink to 6% of S&P

Posted October 12, 2021 by Michael Batnick

Nobody wants cash flow when money costs nothing.

This is playing out right now in consumer staples stocks, which, according to Sentimentrader, have shrunk below 6% of the S&P 500 for only the 2nd time in 30 years. I’ll give you one guess as to when that other time was. Yep, you nailed it.

There are 26 detergent and toilet paper stocks with a market cap north of $10 billion that have a higher yield than the 10-year treasury.

What would you rather own for the next ten years? A security that promises to pay your principal back with interest payments that are currently running behind inflation, or Walmart, a company that has raised its dividend for 48 straight years?

I know there are more than two things to invest in, but, and call me crazy, I do think that ultra-low interest rates impact the way people allocate their capital. Right now, money is free and cash flows are worthless.

Nobody Wants Cash Flow – The Irrelevant Investor

4. 70-80% of Chinese Household Assets Tied to Real Estate

Business Insider.–How much debt does an average borrower in China get exposed to in order to buy a home?

Household exposure to debt is lower in China than in many other developed countries, but it still forms a significant part of their portfolio.

“The debt level is lower in China than what you would see in other countries, for example, Thailand or Malaysia,” Bernard Aw, an economist overseeing Asia Pacific for Coface, told Insider. “Chinese citizens have high savings rates — about 40% of their money goes into savings.”

They also tend to employ personal lending networks in order to purchase homes. At least 40% of China’s millennial homeowners received money from their families to help pay for their houses, a 2017 HSBC survey on millennials found.

That said, the majority of debt in Chinese households is property-based, Aw said, and household debt has been on the rise since the financial crisis. In 2020, household debt rose to 128% of income, according to a report from China-focused researcher Rhodium Group. At the end of 2018, housing-related debt accounted for nearly two-thirds of the average household’s total debt, according to a 2019 report from the International Monetary Fund.

Individual wealth in China is also heavily tied to real estate.

According to Moody’s estimates, 70-80% of Chinese household assets are tied to real estate, CNBC reported in August.

That’s more individual wealth tied to real estate than in just about any other developed country, Sun said: “In the west, people diversify their investments and the majority goes to capital markets.” But in China, where the capital markets are less developed and highly volatile, people keep much more of their money invested in real estate.

Household spending on real estate is also high, Aw said: “Some 30-40% of household spending is going into the real estate sector, be that rental payment or mortgages, for example.” This percentage is similar to how much Americans spend on housing.

https://www.businessinsider.com/china-housing-market-explainer-cost-debt-wealth-evergrande-impact-2021-9

5. Competition in online sports betting is fierce — and not profitable-Axios

Kate Marino

The growth potential in the nascent market for American sports betting is huge. But for now, operators are still losing money — a lot of it.

The big picture: Sports betting is taking a page from the playbook of tech giants like Netflix, Amazon and Twitter, sacrificing profitability in the early days in the hope of engraining themselves in customers’ lives.

Even if you’re not a sports fan, you’ve probably seen or heard the deluge of ads from online sports betting companies offering major financial incentives to use their apps.

What we’re watching: This NFL season will go a long way in determining which companies live to fight another day in the ultra-competitive sports betting arena.

• “This football season is crucial, as more states legalized sports betting going into this season, and football is really the culmination of the U.S. market,” Barry Jonas, equity research analyst at Truist, tells Axios.

Where it stands: The Supreme Court only opened the door to widespread legal, online sports betting in 2018, and the sector is still in its infancy.

• So far, a total of 21 states, representing 40% of the population, allow online sports betting, according to a Wells Fargo research note. Another 8 states allow in-person betting.

State of play: The weekly fantasy sports operators — FanDuel and DraftKings — have taken the lead with market shares of 33% and 19% respectively, in the first half of 2021, the Wells report says.

• DraftKings, which went public in 2019, is currently valued at $19 billion.
• Legacy casino companies are also in the running, most notably MGM’s brand, BetMGM (13%), and Caesars Casino & Sportsbook (4%) which just formally launched in August.

Those companies are shoveling money into marketing and promotions, sometimes including hundreds of dollars of free bets.

• “DraftKings and FanDuel are really customer acquisition platforms, operating as sports books,” Jed Kelly, equity research analyst at Oppenheimer, tells Axios.
• “It’s going to be highly promotional right now … The beginning of football season is the peak in terms of customer acquisitions,” Daniel Politzer, senior equity analyst at Wells Fargo, tells Axios.

What’s next: The operators are chasing a market that has massive growth potential — Politzer estimates annual U.S. sports betting revenue could grow to $11.3 billion in 2025, compared to $3.8 billion estimated this year.

• “At some point you have to start to show profit. But we’re so early that investors are willing to pay a decent multiple for revenue growth over profit. That’s where we’re at,” Kelly says.

Yes, but: Analysts think consolidation is ultimately the most likely endgame, with 3 to 4 players all but dominating the field.

• Amy Howe, CEO of FanDuel, last week told the FT (perhaps self-servingly) that the level of marketing spending that’s happening right now is unsustainable, and that many companies won’t make it.

There’s a Catch-22 for sports books: Making too little money is obviously bad for business, but if they start making too much money — it may attract the attention of regulators.

• “Certainly, states don’t want to see too much problem gaming and social consequences,” Jonas says.
• And there are lots of regulators — a gaming commission in each state, as well as potentially the federal government.

The big question: Whether regulators become concerned about the gamification of the old in-person betting process — too easy, too fun, too instantaneous — similar to the scrutiny that Robinhood’s received for gamifying stock trading.

https://www.axios.com/competition-in-online-sports-betting-is-fierce-and-not-profitable-25adfa3c-f3dc-41f0-bcdc-92f05bbd54de.html

6. Price of Airline Fares Rolling Back Over

Profile / Twitter

7. KKR Public Market Assets Explode to Half of Book.

This week two titans of the finance world, Henry Kravis and George Roberts, called time on their 45 year run at the top of high finance.

Kravis and Roberts were the second “K” and the “R” in KKR — the private equity giant that originally made its name, and their respective fortunes, in aggressive leveraged buyouts during the 80s and 90s.

Most famous of their deals is probably still the $25bn hostile acquisition of RJR Nabisco, a sprawling conglomerate that sold cigarettes and food, in 1989. That deal was immortalized by book Barbarians at the Gate, and was a rare mis-step in the history of KKR, which has otherwise delivered solid returns and has ballooned into a behemoth managing more than $400bn in assets.

Bread & butter

For years KKR’s bread and butter was in private equity. Take money from investors, borrow some more from lenders and buy a private company. Try and make it more efficient (read: profitable), pay back the debt you borrowed and sell it on in 5-10 years, for more than you paid. That is a formula that’s worked for 45 years, and will probably work for another 45.

But in recent decades KKR has expanded. Into public credit markets, real estate, other alternatives, hedge funds — and most recently insurance with the acquisition of Global Atlantic. The other formula that hasn’t changed? Managing more assets = more fees.

www.chartr.com

8. More than half of Bay Area residents plan to leave permanently: poll

BY JORDAN WILLIAMS – 10/13/21 09:19 AM EDT 870

More than half of the residents living in the San Francisco Bay Area say they are considering moving out of the area permanently, according to a poll from Joint Venture Silicon Valley released Monday.

The survey of voters in five Bay Area Counties found that 56 percent of respondents said they were likely to leave the region within “the next few years,” a higher percentage than in any of the think tank’s previous polling.

A separate 44 percent said they were unlikely to leave, with 14 percent of these people saying they want to move but could not.

Russell Hancock, president and CEO of Joint Venture Silicon Valley, told The San Francisco Chronicle that the issue comes down to the costs of housing.

“It’s housing, stupid,” Hancock told the newspaper. “That is driving almost all of the results we see in this poll.”

Among those who were likely to leave, 84 percent cited the cost of living as a major reason, 77 percent specifically cited high housing costs and 62 percent cited the quality of life.

• More shooting fatalities, injuries already reported in Seattle area…
• Collectives seek to lower cost of renewable energy, offer choice at…

Forty-eight percent of respondents said the region was headed in the right direction, while 52 percent said it was on the wrong track. Seventy-one percent thought the quality of life is worse now than it was five years ago.

But despite the problems, 71 percent said the Bay Area was still a good place to pursue a career. Fifty-six percent rated the region as good or excellent to grow up, and 46 percent said it was a good or excellent place to raise a family.

The poll was conducted by Embold Research and surveyed 1,610 registered voters in Santa Clara, San Mateo, Alameda, San Francisco and Contra Costa counties from Sept. 21 to 26. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/576496-more-than-half-of-bay-area-residents-plan-to-leave-permanently-poll

9. Master’s Degrees That Give You Greatest Pay Boost.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/24/the-masters-degrees-that-give-the-biggest-salary-boostup-to-87percent.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_content=Main&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1634127566

10. The Philosophy Of Stoicism: 4 Lessons From Antiquity On Self-Discipline

Stoic Exercises, Wisdom, and More

This is a guest post by Philip Ghezelbash.

***

Stoicism is an ancient Greco-Roman philosophy. The ideal for the Stoic, as with the Buddhist, is to show complete equanimity in the face of adversity.

The four virtues of Stoicism are wisdom, justice, courage and temperance. Temperance is subdivided into self-control, discipline and modesty.

I think that with discipline everything else falls into place.

Discipline is the fundamental action, mindset and philosophy which keeps one in a routine and making progress towards whatever one is pursuing.

Stoicism cultivates iron will in anyone who adheres to its teachings. Here are 4 lessons I’ve taken away which have helped me develop discipline in regards to my health and overall quality of life.

1. FIND WISE PEOPLE TO EMULATE

Seneca wrote that,

“Without a ruler to do it against, you can’t make crooked straight.”

We need to recognise the importance of having wise people in our lives which we look up to for inspiration.

These figures serve as models for ourselves to emulate.

Pick carefully and choose someone who is living a good life. By good life I mean someone who morally sound.

Envision the person you wish to become and find someone who is one step ahead of you.

Watch what they do, listen to what they say, learn from them and more importantly, pay attention to what they don’t do.

Humble yourself and embrace ignorance. Follow the words of Socrates and admit wholeheartedly to yourself then you know that you know nothing.

What is motivating this person’s actions, their ambitions, why are the consequences they experience happening to them.

Changing your mindset will build confidence and trust in yourself to stay on track and become more self-disciplined.

Apply this knowledge actively in your life and you will be rewarded.

2. REVIEW YOUR DAY

It’s not enough to go to sleep without considering the implications, lessons and knowledge you gained throughout the day. It’s a shame to forget to do this.

Thinking about thinking late at night were referred to as ‘evening retrospections.’ Today one may call this journalling.

Ask yourself,

What did I do well today?

Where were my discipline and self-control tested, where did I do good?

What did I do bad, why did this occur? Furthermore, how can I improve?

One of the best ways to become more disciplined is to scrutinize yourself, find your weak spots. Be brutally honest and use this time to connect with your subconscious.

Practicing evening retrospections on a consistent basis will allow you to become more self-aware through every step of your day because you will be actively gathering information to formulate and articulate constructive answers to the latter questions.

The moment you find something which derailed you from your pursuits, recognise it, don’t ignore it. Never regret your actions or words and most importantly strive to never make the same mistake moving forward.

3. YOUR DISTRACTIONS ARE YOUR OWN DOING

Marcus Aurelius said,

“If you are distressed by anything external, the pain is not due to the thing itself, but to your estimate of it; and this you have the power to revoke at any moment.”

Being distressed, being bothered by small things instantly is terrible for discipline. You have a goal, you’re working and then thoughts and distress about something external [meaning it’s out of your control] de-rails you.

The best thing you can do in these circumstances is to apply Epictetus’ dichotomy of control.

Reinforce to yourself what is within your control and what is out of your control; if you embrace what is out of your control and accept it, you will experience tranquillity.

Refer to the following wording next time you’re distressed and distracted:

Do you have a problem in your life?

No? ► Then don’t worry.

Yes? ► Can you do something about it?…

Yes? ► Then don’t worry.

No? ► Then don’t worry.

4. EVERY DAY IS A NEW LIFE

Seneca said,

“Begin at once to live, and count each separate day as a separate life.”

A bad day doesn’t have to become a bad week, a bad week doesn’t have to become a bad year.

The moment you wake up, remember that the new day is a new life. The past shouldn’t be forgotten, but it most definitely should not be something which holds you back.

All previous actions from previous days are now out of your control and if pondered on too much, serve no good other than to drag you down like an anchor.

Release the anchor and move forward by opening your eyes and focusing on what’s in front of you, which is life itself.

If you binged on your diet yesterday, it does not mean you’ve failed and now there’s no point in continuing.

If you didn’t exercise when you know you should have, this doesn’t define your character. Your ability to keep going is what moulds you into a disciplined and strong person.

Get back on the horse as the expression goes.

***

Philip is a health nut, writer and trainer. His mission is to close the gap between health and philosophy. He is the upcoming author of the book The Stoic Body. What he is striving to do is combine the seemingly unrelated fields of nutrition and health in with the philosophical world and in particular, Stoicism.

The Philosophy Of Stoicism: 4 Lessons From Antiquity On Self-Discipline (dailystoic.com)

1. P/E Ratios vs. 5-10 Year Averages.

Today’s P/E Ratio Appears Elevated Compared With Historical Valuations
(S&P 500 Forward 12-Month P/E Ratios)

Source: Bloomberg. Data from 6/30/2011‒6/30/2021. The P/E ratio shows how much investors are paying for a dollar of a company’s earnings. Price-to-sales ratio shows how much investors are paying for a dollar of a company’s sales. Price-to-book ratio measures market value of a fund or index relative to the collective book values of its component stocks. Price-to-cash-flows ratio measures the value of a stock’s price relative to its operating cash flow per share.

(For a larger view, click on the image above) 

https://www.etf.com/sections/etf-industry-perspective/proshares-dividend-aristocrats-less

2. Inflation Surprise and Economic Surprises vs. Historical Returns.

Liz Ann Sonders Schwab

Surprise!

Commodities remain the lone major asset class continuing to extend an already-extreme bullish run. Since the low in March 2020, the Bloomberg Commodity Index is up 70%. This is in keeping with inflation, which continues to run hot; and has been a volatility-driver for the equity market. As shown below, although a bit off the boil, Citi’s Inflation Surprise Index (measuring how inflation data is coming in relative to expectations) remains in the stratosphere. As detailed in the accompanying table, historical returns for the stock market tend to be lower when inflation surprises are higher. Also shown though is the historical tendency for small cap stocks to perform significantly better in those high inflation surprise zones.

Inflation Surprises Easing?

Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg, 1/31/1998-9/30/2021. The Citi Inflation Surprise Indices measure price surprises relative to market expectations. A positive reading means that inflation has been higher than expected and a negative reading that inflation has been lower than expected. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

In contrast to inflation having been surprising on the upside, economic data has been surprising on the downside; albeit with a slight uptick recently as shown below. As with the Inflation Surprise Index above, Citi’s Economic Surprise Index is not a measure of the level of economic data readings; but a measure of how the data is coming in relative to expectations. Courtesy of some recent and notable economic data “misses,” including consumer confidence/sentiment and payroll growth, the index remains in negative territory. As detailed in the accompanying table, historical returns for the stock market tended to be lower when economic surprises are lower.

Economic Surprises Bottoming?

Source: Charles Schwab,  Bloomberg, ^©Copyright 2021 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html. For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/, as of 9/30/2021.  Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/flavor-weak-notable-end-to-some-key-winning-streaks

3. Change in Consumer Prices One Year…Energy Up 25%

Inflation: Persistently Transitoryby Jeffrey Kleintop of Charles Schwab

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2021/10/12/inflation-persistently-transitory

4. Inflation Since 2000

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/10/12/weekly-gasoline-prices-gas-prices-highest-since-2014

5. Energy Production Fails to Match Demand

Source: TS Lombard

https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-october-12th-2021/

6. Renewed Inflationary Concerns Pushing Global Yields Higher

Posted by lplresearch–Market Blog

Tuesday, October 12, 2021

The week of September 20 was notable for monetary policy as there were eleven central bank meetings, including the U.S., E.U., U.K., Turkey, and Norway, to name a few. While many of these countries are in different phases of an economic recovery and some of these central banks are providing different levels of monetary accommodation, a central theme was present throughout: inflation. Inflationary pressures would likely be higher than originally thought and would likely take longer than had been expected to abate. Since those meetings, we’ve seen a general repricing of market-implied inflation expectations and that has pushed global bond yields higher.

“Inflation is the nemesis of bond investors,” noted LPL Financial Fixed Income Strategist Lawrence Gillum. “That we’re seeing signs of stickier inflation in the near term is causing bond prices to fall. We think these inflationary pressures will decline over time though.”

As seen in the LPL Research Chart of the Day, inflation expectations, globally, have increased since central bank week (shaded part). Now, 5-year market-implied inflation expectations are the highest they’ve been in years for some regions. Market participants in the U.S., for now think consumer prices will increase 2.9% each year for the next five years. Moreover, markets are expecting consumer prices in the U.K. to increase by 4.5% annually over the next five years. Even in the European Union, where inflation goals have been tough to meet, inflation expectations continue to rise.

https://lplresearch.com/2021/10/12/renewed-inflationary-concerns-pushing-global-yields-higher

7.  Binance to halt Chinese yuan-crypto trading and restrict mainland China customers to withdrawals only

Shalini Nagarajan

Zhao, CEO of Binance.

REUTERS/Darrin Zammit Lupi

• Binance will discontinue Chinese yuan trading on December 31, it said on Wednesday.
• The crypto exchange said it would run checks to ensure users in mainland China can only make withdrawals.
• Binance says it has been blocked in China since 2017, and doesn’t engage in local exchange business.
• Sign up here for our daily newsletter, 10 Things Before the Opening Bell.

Binance will end the use of the Chinese yuan on its peer-to-peer platform, in the crypto exchange’s latest move to cooperate with regulators in China.

The company, which is one of the world’s largest exchanges, is set to discontinue support for the Chinese currency on December 31 this year, it said in a statementWednesday.

Binance added that people in mainland China will be allowed to only make withdrawals, redeem, or close positions.

“At the same time, Binance will conduct an inventory of platform users,” the crypto exchange said. “If the platform finds users in mainland China, their corresponding accounts will be switched to the ‘withdrawal only’ mode.”

Relevant users will be notified of the restriction to withdrawals via email seven days before the transition.

In late September, Chinese authorities declared all crypto-related transactions illegal and banned foreign exchanges from providing services to the country’s residents. Almost immediately, Binance said it would no longer accept registrations linked to Chinese mobile phone numbers.

Chinese crypto exchange Huobi said too it would stop new user registrations by mainland customers, and retire existing accounts by the end of this year. Two other Asia-focused crypto exchanges, Matrixport and Mexc, are also following by cutting off existing users.

Beijing’s recent hostile stance against towards crypto didn’t come as a surprise, after authorities imposed their first related “ban” in 2013.

Since then, China has been attempting to choke off the digital asset sector via various restrictions that target a range of market segments. In 2017, local crypto exchanges were ordered to end operations.

A Binance spokesperson told Insider that the crypto exchange has been blocked in China since 2017 and local users haven’t been able to access its website.

“Binance does not currently hold exchange operations in China,” the spokesperson said, and added that the company takes its compliance obligations “very seriously.”

News of crypto-related bans from China has not impacted the adoption rate of cryptocurrencies, according to Freddie Williams, a sales trader at UK-based digital asset broker GlobalBlock.

“It has not prevented adoption of bitcoin and digital assets from continuing their upward trend,” Williams said.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/binance-chinese-yuan-crypto-trading-limit-mainland-users-withdrawals-2021-10

8. U.S. officially the top destination for bitcoin miners, beating out China for the first time

PUBLISHED WED, OCT 13 20213:10 AM EDT

MacKenzie Sigalos@KENZIESIGALOS

KEY POINTS

-The U.S. is now the top destination for bitcoin miners, eclipsing China for the first time ever.

-One-third of bitcoin’s hashrate is in the U.S., according to the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance, a 428% increase from September 2020.

The U.S. is now the number one destination for bitcoin miners, eclipsing China for the first time ever. While it was already trending in that direction, new data from Cambridge University released early Wednesday makes it official.

As of July, 35.4% of bitcoin’s hashrate – an industry term used to describe the collective computing power of miners – is in the United States, according to the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance. That’s a 428% increase from September 2020.

America partly has China to thank for its newfound dominance in the mining industry.

Twelve months ago, China was the market leader in terms of hashrate – by a long shot. But Beijing’s crypto crackdown in the spring took half the world’s bitcoin miners offline practically overnight.

Miners started fleeing China en masse, heading to the cheapest energy sources on the planet in what was dubbed “the great mining migration.” A whole lot of them ended up in America.

The newly-released Cambridge data zeroes out China’s average monthly share of the global hashrate in July – a major reversal from September 2020, when China captured about 67% of the market.

“The whole narrative of China controls bitcoin is now completely destroyed,” said Boaz Sobrado, a London-based fintech data analyst.

Heading to America

The U.S. ticks a lot of boxes for migrant bitcoin miners searching for a new home.

For one, states like Texas boast some of the world’s lowest energy prices, which is a major incentive to miners who compete in a low-margin industry, where their only variable cost is typically energy.

The U.S. is also flush with renewable power sources.

Washington state is a mecca for hydropowered mining farms. New York produces more hydroelectric power than any other state east of the Rocky Mountains, and it counts its nuclear power plants toward its 100% carbon-free electricity goal. Meanwhile, Texas’ share of renewables is growing over time, with 20% of its power coming from wind as of 2019. The Texas grid also continues to rapidly add more wind and solar power.

Miners across the country have also harnessed nuclear power. Some are latching their rigs to otherwise stranded energy, like natural gas going to waste in oil fields across Texas. This reduces greenhouse gas emissions and generates money for the gas providers and miners.

This shift toward zero-emission, clean energy sources has already begun to recast the narrative among skeptics that bitcoin is bad for the environment.

“Mining is price sensitive, so as to seek out the lowest-cost power and the lowest-cost power tends to be renewable because if you’re burning fossil fuels … it has extraction, refinement and transport costs,” Blockstream CEO Adam Back said.

Besides lower electricity costs, some U.S. states like Texas also have crypto-friendly policymakers and an adequate supply of hosting infrastructure.

The state has a deregulated power grid with real-time spot pricing that lets customers choose between power providers, and crucially, its political leaders are pro-crypto. Those are dream conditions for miners who want a kind welcome and cheap energy sources.

“If you’re looking to relocate hundreds of millions of dollars of miners out of China, you want to make sure you have geographic, political, and jurisdictional stability. You also want to make sure there are private property rights protections for the assets that you are relocating,” said Darin Feinstein, co-founder of Core Scientific.

Luck meets preparation

America’s rise to the top is also a case of luck meeting preparation. The U.S. has been quietly boosting its hosting capacity for years.

Before bitcoin miners started coming to America, companies across the country made a gamble that eventually, if adequate infrastructure were in place, they would set up shop in the U.S.

That gamble is paying off.

When bitcoin crashed in late 2017 and the wider market entered a multi-year crypto winter, there wasn’t much demand for big bitcoin farms. U.S. mining operators saw their opening and jumped at the chance to deploy cheap money to build up the mining ecosystem in the States.

“The large, publicly-traded miners were able to raise capital to go make big purchases,” said Mike Colyer, CEO of digital currency company Foundry, which helped bring over $300 million of mining equipment into North America.

Feinstein says that in the last 18 months, there has been a serious growth of mining infrastructure in America. “We’ve noticed a massive uptick in mining operations looking to relocate to North America, mostly in the U.S.,” continued Feinstein.

Companies like North American crypto mining operator Core Scientific kept building out hosting space all through the crypto winter to ensure the capacity to plug in new gear, according to Colyer. 

“A majority of the new equipment manufactured from May 2020 through December 2020 was shipped to the U.S. and Canada,” he said.

Alex Brammer of Luxor Mining, a cryptocurrency pool built for advanced miners, points out that maturing capital markets and financial instruments around the mining industry also played a big role in the industry’s quick ascent in the U.S. Brammer says many of these American operators were able to start rapidly expanding once they secured financing by leveraging a multi-year track record of profitability and existing capital as collateral.

Covid also played a role.

Though the global pandemic shut down large swaths of the economy, the ensuing stimulus payments proved a boon for U.S. mining companies.

“All the money printing during the pandemic meant that more capital needed to be deployed,” explained bitcoin mining engineer Brandon Arvanaghi.

“People were looking for places to park their cash. The appetite for large-scale investments had never been bigger. A lot of that likely found its way into bitcoin mining operations in places outside of China,” continued Arvanaghi.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/13/us-beats-china-as-the-number-one-destination-for-bitcoin-miners.html

9. Tesla vs. All Automakers.

1. Earnings Season—Big Downshift in Forecasts After Massive Covid Bounce.

Dave Lutz at Jones Trading….Third-quarter earnings season will kick off this week, and investors are awaiting insight into the impact of stickier-than-anticipated inflation, brought on by supply-chain disruptions, labor shortages and surging energy prices. Some are worried that higher costs for products and energy could crimp demand, while winter could lead to a resurgence in Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations. No major earnings are due Monday, WSJ reports.

Analysts see a 29.6% year-over-year increase in earnings for S&P 500 companies in the third quarter, according to IBES data from Refinitiv as of Friday, down from 96.3% growth in the second quarter. The third-quarter forecast is down a touch from several weeks ago, a reversal of the recent trend for estimates.

Reopening demand and marooned containers have caused bottlenecks across supply chains just as the holiday shopping season kicks off in North America, prompting downgrades across analysts estimates for the upcoming earnings season.  Few expect the supply snarls to end this year as an energy crisis stokes inflation fears. Caution abounds in the semiconductor, retail and raw material segments.

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2. Coal 5 Year Chart ….$50 to $250 in One Year.

Trading Economics Blog—Coal futures rose slightly on Monday to trade around $240 per metric ton and getting closer to a record of $269.5 hit on October 5th as flooding put in question China’s efforts to address energy shortages. Heavy rains have forced the closures of 60 coal mines in Shanxi province, the largest coal mining hub in China. Last week, the coal prices eased to $230 after Beijing ordered coal miners to boost production in an effort to curb an ongoing energy crisis, while Russian President Vladimir Putin said Gazprom will send more gas to European countries via Ukraine.

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3. Historical Profit Margins Chart…..Hit 10 Year High.  Higher taxes, labor costs, materials, and interest rates coming?

Callum Thomas Chart Storm US Profit Margins: following a disastrous global pandemic and widespread supply chain issues, US economy-wide profit margins are… at a 10-year high.

Specifically what the chart shows is US corporate profits before tax (with IVA and CCadj) as a percentage of GDP.

Clearly a lot has gone right for corporates: very easy and cheap financing, wage subsidies and other fiscal economic-life support measures, and a stimulus-fueled (and reopening-driven) economic rebound. Some of these things will be hard (won’t happen) to replicate going forward.

Indeed, most signs point to very tight labor markets and rising wage pressures as global supply chain blockages send prices skyward (and prompt many to rethink how they even arrange their supply chain e.g. reshoring, etc). Shorter-term energy costs are rising as well, and I think it’s likely we’ve already seen the low point in interest rates, and of course global tax rates.

So it seems likely this rebound in profit margins will be short-lived.

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Best regards,

Callum Thomas

https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-10-october

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4. Massive Projected Spending in Clean Energy 2021-2050

Capital Group Blog-Trillions in global investments expected for clean energy

Green infrastructure investment set for big growth

Infrastructure investment (USD billions)

Source: International Energy Agency, Net Zero by 2050 (May 2021).

https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/clean-energy-tailwinds.html?sfid=1988901890&cid=80542750&et_cid=80542750&cgsrc=SFMC&alias=SEE+PREDICTIONS-Advisor

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5. Chinese Military Spending Doubles in 10 Years

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6. Office Buildings Conversion to Apartments

Wolf Street Blog–For 2021, a total of 20,122 apartments are expected to be completed, in 151 buildings of all types, with a surging share of office buildings, according to Yardi Matrix data cited by sister company RENTCafé. But it’s not huge: By comparison, new construction starts of multi-family buildings with five or more units averaged around 370,000 units per year over the past five years. The number of completed buildings in 2021, at 151, are over double the number in the prior two years.

Office conversions have been the leader since 2013, and they shot higher in 2020 and 2021 and have far outdistanced factory and hotel conversions. Hotel conversions are easier to accomplish because the existing floorplans, utilities, and other aspects are less costly to adapt for residential use. But the real volume going forward is in office buildings, given the vast amount of space available, though they’re more costly to convert than hotels:

Apartment Conversions from Old Office Buildings, Hotels, Factories: The Numbersby Wolf Richter • Oct 11, 2021 

https://wolfstreet.com/2021/10/11/redevelopment-of-vacant-office-buildings-old-hotels-factories-into-apartments-surges-but-the-number-of-buildings-that-make-isnt-huge/

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7. Private Jet Sales and Bookings at Record Levels.

Private jet rage grows as a record number of fliers strain the system, causing plane shortages
Robert Frank@ROBTFRANK

• The flood of new private jet customers — driven by health concerns during the pandemic and the rapid creation of wealth — is now taxing an industry geared for slower growth.
• The problem has been made worse by a shortage of new and used planes, delays getting aircraft parts and crew and pilot shortages.
• NetJets has halted sales of jet cards, fractional shares and leases for light cabin aircraft amid the challenges.

Record number of travelers are now flying on private jets

Private jet fliers are facing increasing delays, cancellations and lack of available flights as the industry struggles to serve a record number of new fliers, while facing supply chain troubles.

July was the busiest month ever for private jet flights, with more than 300,000 flights, according to Argus International. While business usually cools in the fall, September saw nearly 300,000 flights and Argus projects October’s pace will break the July record.

The flood of new private jet customers — driven by health concerns during the coronavirus pandemic and the rapid creation of wealth — is now taxing an industry geared for slower growth. A shortage of new and used planes, delays getting aircraft parts, crew and pilot shortages, catering snafus, and air traffic problems are combining to create a growing number of delays and cancellations, according to industry executives.

Customers who paid five or six figures for their dream flights are now learning that even private jets encounter delays and logistics problems.

“These are people who spent $200,000 and they want perfection,” said Doug Gollan, founder of Private Jet Card Comparisons, a website that reviews jet card programs.

A Private Jet Card Comparisons survey of private jet fliers found that more than 20% had experienced a service issue in recent months.

Industry executives say the main issue is a lack of aircraft. People who own private jets and usually hire them out for charter are using the planes more often themselves, leaving fewer available for the charter market.

Fractional owners are also using their planes more. The supply shortage is feeding through the entire private aviation system, from charter companies and jet management companies to brokers and operators. The inventory of used planes is at all-time lows, and private jet makers Bombardier, Textron and General Dynamics’ Gulfstream have all raised production to meet demand.

Pilots are in short supply as well. Many retired or dialed back during the Covid-19 pandemic, and with the commercial airlines aggressively hiring, private jet companies and owners are scrambling to find pilots. Finding cabin crew is also becoming difficult and costly.

Shortages and delays are also hurting the availability of aircraft parts, which means that repairs that should take a day or two are now stretching for a week or more, taking more planes out of circulation.

Wheels Up, which started trading as a public company this summer, just launched a new Pilot Employee Equity Grant to try to lure and retain more pilots. The program provides equity to full-time and part-time pilots on its seniority list as of Aug. 31, and new pilots hired after Sept. 1 will be eligible.

Even catering has become a source of customer complaints. Private jet customers typically call in their catering order a day or two before the flight. But many of the new fliers are calling it in the night before, which has created a mad scramble for the caterers trying to source and make the meals — and line up the right wine or spirits — that clients are requesting.

“Say you’ve got a client who ordered Belvedere vodka and the caterer couldn’t only get Grey Goose,” Gollan said. “So the customer gets on the plane and he’s ticked off that he’s paying all this money and saying “why didn’t I get my Belvedere vodka?’”

Turning away new business

The cascade of problems has led some companies to halt sales and new customers. Sentient Jet just stopped sales of jet cards as of midnight on Sept. 30, saying it wants to focus on its existing customers.

NetJets has halted sales of jet cards, fractional shares and leases for light cabin aircraft — like the Citation XLS and Phenom 300. The company said flight demand is the highest in its 57-year history, averaging 500 flights a day compared with under 400 in 2019.

“The vast number of flights is taxing the air travel infrastructure in ways we haven’t seen in years,” the company said. Pausing light jet sales, along with other restrictions on card buyers, “allows the company to continue prioritizing what is most important — delivering the best possible experience to all owners.”

Concerns about rising costs and lower margins are squeezing some private jet operators and companies. Wheels Up’s share price has fallen by more than 40% since its peak in July, in part because of analyst concerns over margins.

Wheels Up said it “is uniquely positioned to service our members and customers in the current environment with our fleet of owned, operated, managed and third-party partner aircraft.”

The big question is whether the more than 10,000 customers who started flying private for the first time during the pandemic will stick around if the problems continue to mount. Gollan said that while customers may complain about service issues, none of the 300 it surveyed said they planned to go back to commercial airlines. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/01/private-jet-rage-grows-as-a-record-number-of-fliers-strain-the-system.html?utm_source=morning_brew&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=mb

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8. SpaceX $100 Billion Valuation

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9. Israel a step closer to commercial drones with latest tests

By JACK JEFFERY

TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — Dozens of drones floated through the skies of Tel Aviv on Monday, ferrying cartons of ice cream and sushi across the city in an experiment that officials hope provided a glimpse of the not-too-distant future.

Israel’s National Drone Initiative, a government program, carried out the drill to prepare for a world in which large quantities of commercial deliveries will be made by drones to take pressure off highly congested urban roads. The two-year program aims to apply the capabilities of Israeli drone companies to establish a nationwide network where customers can order goods and have them delivered to pick up spots.

The project, now in the third of eight stages, is still in its infancy and faces many questions about security and logistics.

“We had 700 test flights at the start of this year and now we are close to 9,000 flights,” said Daniella Partem, from Israel Innovation Authority, a partner in the drone initiative.

Israel is a global leader in drone technology, with much of its expertise rooted in the highly technologized military. Many of the 16 companies participating in the drone initiative have links to the military.

According to Partem, the initiative was inspired by the halting effect that COVID-19 had on the transportation of medical supplies in early 2020.

An early stage tested the transport of medicines and blood plasma by drones. The initiative has since carried out wider tests in three different urban districts in Israel and hopes to promote legislation that would allow drones to be widely used through an app that customers and clients can use.

Israel’s population of 9.3 million people is largely packed in in urban centers, with major cities like Tel Aviv and Jerusalem suffering from high levels of road congestion. Access to Israel airspace is highly regulated by security officials, and flying a drone requires a permit from the Israeli Civil Aviation Authority.

The initiative faces many obstacles. Officials will have to ensure that drones can handle flights through turbulent weather conditions and that the skies can be quickly cleared in case of war or emergency. There are also issues of privacy.

“Once you have a drone that actually takes photos or videos you create a totally new dimension of privacy invasion,” said Tehilla Shwartz Altshuler, digital technology expert and fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute, a think tank in Jerusalem. 

The drone initiative has already tried to address such concerns by using cameras that can help the machine land, but don’t have the resolution to take detailed photos.

The drone initiative has worked in cooperation with the aviation authority since its first flight tests in January. Five more tests are planned over the next 14 months. 

“One day, we will have drone-powered taxis in the sky,” said Yoely Or, co-founder of Cando Drones, one of the companies that participated in Monday’s experiment. 

https://apnews.com/article/technology-business-tel-aviv-middle-east-israel-9af02bf7a568a6da9ea4041089417933

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10. 7 Ways to Retain More of Every Book You Read

written by JAMES CLEAR

PRODUCTIVITY SELF-IMPROVEMENT

There are many benefits to reading more books, but perhaps my favorite is this: A good book can give you a new way to interpret your past experiences.

Whenever you learn a new mental model or idea, it’s like the “software” in your brain gets updated. Suddenly, you can run all of your old data points through a new program. You can learn new lessons from old moments. As Patrick O’Shaughnessy says, “Reading changes the past.”

Of course, this is only true if you internalize and remember insights from the books you read. Knowledge will only compound if it is retained. In other words, what matters is not simply reading more books, but getting more out of each book you read.

Gaining knowledge is not the only reason to read, of course. Reading for pleasure or entertainment can be a wonderful use of time, but this article is about reading to learn. With that in mind, I’d like to share some of the best reading comprehension strategies I’ve found.

1. Quit More Books

It doesn’t take long to figure out if something is worth reading. Skilled writing and high-quality ideas stick out.

As a result, most people should probably start more books than they do. This doesn’t mean you need to read each book page-by-page. You can skim the table of contents, chapter titles, and subheadings. Pick an interesting section and dive in for a few pages. Maybe flip through the book and glance at any bolded points or tables. In ten minutes, you’ll have a reasonable idea of how good it is.

Then comes the crucial step: Quit books quickly and without guilt or shame.

Life is too short to waste it on average books. The opportunity cost is too high. There are so many amazing things to read. I think Patrick Collison, the founder of Stripe, put it nicely when he said, “Life is too short to not read the very best book you know of right now.”

Here’s my recommendation:

Start more books. Quit most of them. Read the great ones twice.

2. Choose Books You Can Use Instantly

One way to improve reading comprehension is to choose books you can immediately apply. Putting the ideas you read into action is one of the best ways to secure them in your mind. Practice is a very effective form of learning.

Choosing a book that you can use also provides a strong incentive to pay attention and remember the material. That’s particularly true when something important hangs in the balance. If you’re starting a business, for example, then you have a lot of motivation to get everything you can out of the sales book you’re reading. Similarly, someone who works in biology might read The Origin of Species more carefully than a random reader because it connects directly to their daily work. 

Of course, not every book is a practical, how-to guide that you can apply immediately, and that’s fine. You can find wisdom in many different books. But I do find that I’m more likely to remember books that are relevant to my daily life.

3. Create Searchable Notes

Keep notes on what you read. You can do this however you like. It doesn’t need to be a big production or a complicated system. Just do something to emphasize the important points and passages.

I do this in different ways depending on the format I’m consuming. I highlight passages when reading on Kindle. I type out interesting quotes as I listen to audiobooks. I dog-ear pages and transcribe notes when reading a print book.

But here’s the real key: store your notes in a searchable format.

There is no need to leave the task of reading comprehension solely up to your memory. I keep my notes in Evernote. I prefer Evernote over other options because 1) it is instantly searchable, 2) it is easy to use across multiple devices, and 3) you can create and save notes even when you’re not connected to the internet.

I get my notes into Evernote in three ways:

I. Audiobook: I create a new Evernote file for each book and then type my notes directly into that file as I listen.

II. Ebook: I highlight passages on my Kindle Paperwhite and use a program called Clippings to export all of my Kindle highlights directly into Evernote. Then, I add a summary of the book and any additional thoughts before posting it to my book summaries page.

III. Print: Similar to my audiobook strategy, I type my notes as I read. If I come across a longer passage I want to transcribe, I place the book on a book stand as I type. (Typing notes while reading a print book can be annoying because you are always putting the book down and picking it back up, but this is the best solution I’ve found.)

Of course, your notes don’t have to be digital to be “searchable.” For example, you can use Post-It Notes to tag certain pages for future reference. As another option, Ryan Holiday suggests storing each note on an index card and categorizing them by the topic or book.

The core idea is the same: Keeping searchable notes is essential for returning to ideas easily. An idea is only useful if you can find it when you need it.

4. Combine Knowledge Trees

One way to imagine a book is like a knowledge tree with a few fundamental concepts forming the trunk and the details forming the branches. You can learn more and improve reading comprehension by “linking branches” and integrating your current book with other knowledge trees.

For example:

• While reading The Tell-Tale Brain by neuroscientist V.S. Ramachandran, I discovered that one of his key points connected to a previous idea I learned from social work researcher Brené Brown.
• In my notes for The Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck, I noted how Mark Manson’s idea of “killing yourself” overlaps with Paul Graham’s essay on keeping your identity small.
• As I read Mastery by George Leonard, I realized that while this book was about the process of improvement, it also shed some light on the connection between genetics and performance.

I added each insight to my notes for that particular book.

Connections like these help you remember what you read by “hooking” new information onto concepts and ideas you already understand. As Charlie Munger says, “If you get into the mental habit of relating what you’re reading to the basic structure of the underlying ideas being demonstrated, you gradually accumulate some wisdom.”

When you read something that reminds you of another topic or immediately sparks a connection or idea, don’t allow that thought to come and go without notice. Write about what you’ve learned and how it connects to other ideas.

5. Write a Short Summary

As soon as I finish a book, I challenge myself to summarize the entire text in just three sentences. This constraint is just a game, of course, but it forces me to consider what was really important about the book.

Some questions I consider when summarizing a book include:

• What are the main ideas?
• If I implemented one idea from this book right now, which one would it be?
• How would I describe the book to a friend?

In many cases, I find that I can usually get just as much useful information from reading my one-paragraph summary and reviewing my notes as I would if I read the entire book again. 

If you feel like you can’t squeeze the whole book into three sentences, consider using the Feynman Technique.

The Feynman Technique is a note-taking strategy named after the Nobel Prize-winning physicist Richard Feynman. It’s pretty simple: Write the name of the book at the top of a blank sheet of paper, then write down how you’d explain the book to someone who had never heard of it.

If you find yourself stuck or if you see that there are holes in your understanding, review your notes or go back to the text and try again. Keep writing it out until you have a good handle on the main ideas and feel confident in your explanation.

I’ve found that almost nothing reveals gaps in my thinking better than writing about an idea as if I am explaining it to a beginner. Ben Carlson, a financial analyst, says something similar, “I find the best way to figure out what I’ve learned from a book is to write something about it.” 

6. Surround the Topic

I often think of the quote by Thomas Aquinas, “Beware the man of a single book.”

If you only read one book on a topic and use that as the basis for your beliefs for an entire category of life, well, how sound are those beliefs? How accurate and complete is your knowledge?

Reading a book takes effort, but too often, people use one book or one article as the basis for an entire belief system. This is even more true (and more difficult to overcome) when it comes to using our one, individual experience as the basis for our beliefs. As Morgan Housel noted, “Your personal experiences make up maybe 0.00000001% of what’s happened in the world but maybe 80% of how you think the world works. We’re all biased to our own personal history.” 

One way to attack this problem is to read a variety of books on the same topic. Dig in from different angles, look at the same problem through the eyes of various authors, and try to transcend the boundary of your own experience.

7. Read It Twice

I’d like to finish by returning to an idea I mentioned near the beginning of this article: read the great books twice. The philosopher Karl Popper explained the benefits nicely, “Anything worth reading is not only worth reading twice, but worth reading again and again. If a book is worthwhile, then you will always be able to make new discoveries in it and find things in it that you didn’t notice before, even though you have read it many times.”

Additionally, revisiting great books is helpful because the problems you deal with change over time. Sure, when you read a book twice maybe you’ll catch some stuff you missed the first time around, but it’s more likely that new passages and ideas will be relevant to you. It’s only natural for different sentences to leap out at you depending on the point you are at in life.

You read the same book, but you never read it the same way. As Charles Chu noted, “I always return home to the same few authors. And, no matter how many times I return, I always find they have something new to say.” 

Of course, even if you didn’t get something new out of each reading, it would still be worthwhile to revisit great books because ideas need to be repeated to be remembered. The writer David Cain says, “When we only learn something once, we don’t really learn it—at least not well enough for it to change us much. It may inspire momentarily, but then becomes quickly overrun by the decades of habits and conditioning that preceded it.” Returning to great ideas cements them in your mind.

Nassim Taleb sums things up with a rule for all readers: “A good book gets better at the second reading. A great book at the third. Any book not worth rereading isn’t worth reading.”

Where to Go From Here

Knowledge compounds over time.

In Chapter 1 of Atomic Habits, I wrote: “Learning one new idea won’t make you a genius, but a commitment to lifelong learning can be transformative.”

One book will rarely change your life, even if it does deliver a lightbulb moment of insight. The key is to get a little wiser each day.

Now that you know how to get more out of each book you read, you might be looking for some reading recommendations. Feel free to check out my book summaries or my public reading list.

https://jamesclear.com/reading-comprehension-strategies

1. Record Stock and Bond Flows…Mass Liquidity.

Wealth of Common Sense Blog For example, Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas noted this week Vanguard’s S&P 500 ETF (VOO) just broke the all-time record for inflows in a single year:

Data from Yardeni Research shows inflows into bond mutual funds and ETFs are as high as they’ve been going back to 2003 by a wide margin:

 

Despite generationally low interest rates, investors continue plowing money into bond funds. According to Yardeni, there was a record $1.01 trillion of inflows into bond funds for the trailing 12 months through April. The 12 month numbers through July and August were close to that record as well.

A Wealth of Common Sense Blog

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/10/this-market-makes-no-sense/

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2.Best and Worst Performing S&P 500 Stocks in 2021-Bespoke

The fourth quarter is now off to the races and we thought it worthwhile to check in on the best and worst-performing S&P 500 stocks on a year-to-date basis.  As shown below, there are currently six members of the index that have rallied over 100% this year.  Apt for the year that its vaccine has rolled out, the biggest gainer of these has been Moderna (MRNA) with a 196.12% rally.  It now has a market cap of $124.87 billion versus a market cap of only $41 billion at the start of the year. Of the 20 best performers, MRNA is also the only one with a market cap above $100 billion. The next largest is ConocoPhillips (COP) with a $95.76 billion market cap.  COP is one of multiple Energy stocks on this list as well. Of the top 20 performers, Energy sector names dominate the list with 8 members.

 

Pivoting to the other end of the spectrum, Las Vegas Sands (LVS) is down the most this year having been cut by 36.18%.  IPG Photonics (IPGP), Lamb Weston Holdings (LW), Viatris (VTRS), MarketAxess (MKTX), and Global Payments (GPN) also have fallen by at least 25%.  Once again, there is only one member of this list with a market cap above $100 billion: Qualcomm (QCOM).  One other interesting factor to note of the worst performers is there are several stocks that were at some point plays on pandemic trends, whether those be reopening or stay at home. For example, in addition to LVS, another gaming/reopening name, Wynn Resorts (WYNN), ranks as the eighth-worst performer YTD.  Additionally, strong performers during the onset of the pandemic like Clorox (CLX), Activision Blizzard (ATVI), and Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) are all down double digits this year.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/best-and-worst-performing-sp-500-stocks-in-2021

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3.Bank Stocks Kick Off Earnings Season This Week

Banks Outperforming this Year but Still Cheap vs. S&P

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-bank-stocks-may-too-113126241.html

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4. Emerging Market Energy Sector Cheap vs. Broad Market.

Another Sector with good run but still fundamentally cheap

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/world-energy-chaos-turns-russia-160100835.html

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5. Bitcoin +14% for the Week….Mystery Whale Buys $1.6B Wed. Trade.

Bitcoin One Month Chart

Who Bought $1.6B in Bitcoin Wednesday, and Why? Coindesk

 

Where? Trying to pin down the exchange that took on this trade offers some hints about the buyer’s motivation.

The price of bitcoin on Coinbase relative to other exchanges rose sharply as the trade was underway, leading some to speculate that the regulated U.S. exchange was the platform where the transaction happened. However, a little more digging into the data places the trade in Asia.

Three exchanges saw particularly large volumes in their perpetual futures contracts, according to Ki Young Ju, CEO of data provider CryptoQuant. Those three – Binance, Huobi and ByBit – while not technically based in China, have long had ties to the country, where yet another crackdown on crypto was recently announced.

Bitcoin perpetual futures trading volume, Oct. 6, 2021 (CryptoQuant)

“Whales bought up $BTC in the perpetual futures markets yesterday mostly at @binance, @HuobiGlobal and @Bybit_Official. Basis ratio says it was futures-driven, and they punted long positions as open interest skyrocketed at that time. These guys know something,” Ki tweeted Thursday.

Ki hypothesized that one possible explanation could be traders taking on huge positions ahead of a rumored approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission of a futures-based bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). The buzz hit the market after the regulator’s chairman, Gary Gensler, merely reiterated his previously stated preference for a futures-based ETF should one ever get launched.

“If this move was the ETF front-running from US whales, they are likely to use non-US exchanges to avoid blame for insider trading IMO,” Ki tweeted, shooting down the idea that the trade came from an order on Coinbase. “Spot trading volume dominance for Coinbase is increasing lately, but not that high compared to early this year.”

Again, that doesn’t explain the trader’s willingness to accept slippage. After all, front-running a regulatory action a full week after speculation began by piling all in with one big order wouldn’t be prudent or rational. That doesn’t mean irrational exuberance doesn’t exist in crypto markets; for many participants it’s a feature, not a bug. But that’s not something usually characteristic of an entity with the resources to take on a billion-dollar trade.

Rather, the fact these three perpetual futures exchanges originated in China (though no longer based there) may be more significant than just their relative liquidity.

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2021/10/10/who-bought-16b-in-bitcoin-wednesday-and-why/

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6. Dividend Growers Vs. High Yield Bonds

Equities: Dividend growers tend to outperform high-yield bonds during times of stress.

The Daily Shot Blog https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-october-7th-2021/

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7. NYC-Apartment Rents and Home Prices Booming but Retail 30% Occupancy ….Office Buildings Only Back to 29% Capacity.

Zerohedge–Some of the busiest streets in midtown Manhattan are plagued with vacant storefronts as a drop in tourism and office workers have severely punished the retail industry during the pandemic.

A new report released Thursday from the Real Estate Board of New York outlines how 30% of 311 storefronts in retail areas around Midtown East and Grand Central are vacant, which is more than double the historical rate. The report also said Madison Avenue had a retail vacancy rate of 28% among 289 stores.

Kastle Systems, whose electronic access systems secure thousands of office buildings across NYC, showed that only 29% of workers were back at their desks in late September.

 

8. The New Buzzword “Stagflation”

More than 4,000 stories mentioned the word “#stagflation” in September, 2X as many as in August, itself a record high going back to 2012

Barry Ritholtz The Big Picture

https://ritholtz.com/2021/10/10-friday-am-reads-337/

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9. A Harvard nutritionist and brain expert shares the 5 foods she eats every day to sharpen her memory and focus

Published Fri, Oct 8 202112:07 PM EDTUpdated Fri, Oct 8 202112:30 PM EDT

Lauren Armstrong, Contributor

As a dietitian, I always tell people to think of the brain as the mastermind behind almost everything — our thoughts, memory, focus, movements, breathing, heartbeat — and that certain foods can help make it stronger, sharper and smarter.

Our brain and diet also play a key role in longevity. According to the National Institute on Aging, what we eat can directly impact inflammation and oxidative stress in our bodies — both of which can affect our risk of neurodegenerative diseases, including Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s.

I spoke with Dr. Uma Naidoo, a nutritional psychiatrist, faculty member at Harvard Medical School and author of “This Is Your Brain on Food,” about what she eats to sharpen her memory, focus and overall brain health:

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1. Extra dark chocolate

Chopped dark chocolate

Julia Malynovska | Twenty20

“Extra dark chocolate is full of antioxidants and cacao flavanols that help preserve the health of brain cells,” Naidoo tells CNBC Make It. “It also contains fiber to help reduce brain inflammation and prevent cognitive decline.”

A 2020 study looked at how dark chocolate and white chocolate can affect the memory of healthy young adults. Participants who were given dark chocolate had better verbal memory performances two hours after consuming the chocolate, compared to the group that received white chocolate.

Researchers suggested this was due to the higher flavonoid content of the dark chocolate, “which can acutely improve cognitive function in humans.”

Extra dark chocolate should be at least 70% cacao or greater, according to Naidoo.

Just don’t go overboard with the serving sizes, she says: “One meta-analysis suggests that the optimal amount of dark chocolate consumption for the health of our blood vessels — including the ones that supply blood to the brain — is about 45 grams per week.”

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2. Berries

Fresh berries

Viktoryia Vinnikava | Twenty20

“Berries are packed with antioxidants, phytonutrients, fiber, vitamins and minerals,” says Naidoo. “These nutrients help retain memory, and the fiber content helps feed microbes in the gut to reduce brain inflammation.”

She suggests choosing from an assortment of red, blue and black-colored berries. Strawberries, for example, are rich in flavonoids and may help slow down cognitive decline; blueberries contain different types of flavonoids linked with preventing oxidative stress; and blackberries are great sources of antioxidants, which help brain cell health.

“Eating a variety of colorful berries can also reduce symptoms of anxiety and help fend off neurodegenerative diseases like dementia,” says Naidoo.

She typically goes for a half or single cup in her daily serving.

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3. Turmeric (with black pepper)

One of the major ingredients in curry powder, turmeric contains a compound called curcumin, which is the secret behind its brain-boosting benefits.

“Curcumin is a powerful anti-inflammatory substance,” says Naidoo. “Consuming it, studies have found, can help reduce symptoms of anxiety and lower cognitive decline with age.”

Turmeric is good solo, but the benefits can be stronger when combined with black pepper. Naidoo always adds “a pinch of black pepper in turmeric because piperine — the compound in black pepper — activates the curcumin and increases the bioavailability to the brain and the body.”

You can incorporate turmeric and black pepper into your diet by adding it to a hearty rice dish, a side of potatoes, a golden milk latte or some oatmeal.

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4. Leafy Greens

Plate of spinach

Ekaterina Budinovskya | Twenty20

“Leafy greens are a staple in brain-healthy diets because they contain folate, which is a B vitamin that supports neurodevelopment and neurotransmitter function,” explains Naidoo. “Folate deficiency has been tied to increased symptoms of depression as well as cognitive aging.”

Naidoo says her favorite leafy greens include:

• Arugula
• Dandelion greens
• Spinach
• Swiss chard
• Watercress

Not a salad fan? You can also enjoy them as creative ingredients in your favorite dishes, like pasta, burritos or as a pizza topping.

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5. Fermented foods

Yogurt bowl

David Tanke | Twenty20

Fermentation involves adding foods to a culture of microorganisms that then feed on the sugars in the food. This creates other products, such as lactic acid, that can generate gut-friendly bacteria.

“We have what’s called a gut-brain connection,” says Naidoo. “So when we eat fermented foods and boost our gut health, we may also improve our cognitive function.”

She likes to eat homemade kimchi as a snack with celery sticks, or combine it with salads for extra texture and flavor. Some other fermented foods Naidoo recommends:

• Sauerkraut
• Miso
• Kombucha
• Kefir
• Yogurt

However, large amounts of fermented foods can make you bloated. “If you feel uncomfortable, cut back on your intake until your gut and body adjust,” Naidoo advises.

You’ll also want to double-check the food labels to ensure that what you’re buying is actually fermented. Typically, you’ll see a label that mentions “live active cultures.”

Lauren Armstrong is a dietitian and nutrition coach. She was also a nutritionist for The Women, Infant and Children (WIC) program. Lauren received her bachelor’s degree in dietetics from Western Michigan University and has written for several publications, including Livestrong and HealthDay.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/08/foods-that-sharpen-brain-health-memory-and-focus-according-to-harvard-nutritional-psychiatrist.html

10. Nothing Get in the Way of Success Like Avoidance

Tiny Thought

There is nothing that gets in the way of success more than avoidance. We avoid hard conversations. We avoid certain people. We avoid hard decisions. We avoid evidence that contradicts what we think. We avoid starting a project until we’re certain of the outcome.

To justify our avoidance, we lie to ourselves. We tell ourselves that we’re noble — we don’t want to hurt someone’s feelings. We tell ourselves we don’t want to offend others. We tell ourselves that things will get better. We tell ourselves that things will get easier. We tell ourselves that we can avoid the real issue without any impact. We tell ourselves we’ll start when the time is right.

Sometimes we muster up half the courage. We have half the conversation we wanted to have. We do half the hard thing. We acknowledge the evidence but convince ourselves this time is different. We see the person we’re avoiding but don’t really talk to them. We start but don’t commit to the project.

And here’s the interesting thing. Half-efforts tend to make things worse, not better. When things don’t get better, it only reinforces that we shouldn’t have said anything in the first place. Avoiding isn’t better, it’s just easier.

Not only does avoiding today make the future harder, but it also almost always makes the present harder. Avoiding puts you on a hair-trigger, anything will set you off. We all do this. Who hasn’t entirely avoided a hard conversation with their partner about something only to find themselves in an insignificant argument over something trivial? Of course, the petty fight isn’t about the trivial thing, it’s about avoidance of the hard thing.

Everything becomes harder until we stop avoiding what’s getting in the way. The longer you wait the higher the cost.

Farnum Street