From Morningbrew Newsletter…There’s been no shortage of record-high temperatures around the globe recently, and since “space fan” isn’t something NASA is currently working on, other scientists are picking up the slack to cool buildings down.
Some options:
Going underground.Geothermal heat pumps can cool (and heat, because it will get cold again someday) your home by sending water through buried pipes to take advantage of the stable temperature of the ground beneath your backyard. They’ve got big advantages over traditional air conditioning and heating because they uses far less electricity and are cheaper in the long run. They’re typically more expensive upfront, but a 30% tax credit from the Inflation Reduction Act could change that.
The whitest paint in the world. We’re talking paint so white it would share a sandwich with its dog. A team of scientists at Purdue University created a white paint that reflects 98% of sunlight (most white paints only reflect 80%–90%). It won’t be ready for commercial use for at least a year, but it promises to decrease the need for air conditioning inside a building by about 40%.
7. Average Maturity of Junk Bonds has Shrunk to the Lowest on Record
Advisor Perspectives Blog Executives must have hoped interest rates would swiftly return to manageable levels, but that looks increasingly improbable. In the meantime the average maturity of US and European junk bonds has shrunk to the lowest on record; while there isn’t much risky debt maturing this year, the refinancing challenges become more daunting thereafter, and businesses may decide to get ahead of the problem by restructuring debts sooner rather than later.
“You have major maturity walls coming up in 2024, ’25, and ’26,” Moelis & Co. co-founder Navid Mahmoodzadegan told investors last month. “A lot of those companies unfortunately aren’t going to be able to refinance through those maturities. And so I think there’s going to be a lot of not just bankruptcies, but a lot of balance sheet restructuring, recapitalization activity around many different names.”
The Corporate Bankruptcy Wave Will Get Even Uglierby Chris Bryant, 7/11/23
Almost everyone shrinks with old age. Many older adults have more difficulty gaining muscle than they did in their childhood and teenage years. And when it comes to maintaining that muscle, the phrase “use it or lose it” holds weight, says Michelle Gray, a physiologist and professor of exercise at the University of Arkansas.
“I work primarily with older adults who are trying to either build and/or maintain muscle throughout their life span, and really how that happens is you use it or lose it,” Gray says.
But she adds that not all hope is lost. “It really is the neurology, as well as the muscular system and the interactions between the two, that changes,” she says. “There’s a fair amount of evidence that says all of those things are still there and [that] we can retrain them.”
Several factors contribute to involuntary age-related muscle loss. The exact age people start to see muscle mass decline varies, Gray says, but many begin to see noticeable changes in their 30s. Studies suggest that muscle mass decreases by about 3 to 8 percent per decade after age 30 and at higher rates after age 60. Losing that strength may not only be frustrating in keeping up with daily activities but can also have significant health consequences.
“If you look at who’s shrinking, and how much they’re shrinking, it predicts really important stuff, like how long you’re going to live, how vulnerable you are to getting sick and having to be in the hospital, how likely you are to develop problems taking care of yourself,” says Stephanie Studenski, a geriatrician and professor emeritus at the University of Pittsburgh.
CHANGES IN MUSCLE TISSUE AND CELLS
Muscle is a dynamic tissue, Studenski explains. “Your whole life, there’s turnover. We’re growing new muscle and breaking down old muscle all the time,” she says.
There are three main types of muscle tissue: smooth muscle lines the gut wall and organs, except the heart; cardiac muscle is striated and covers the heart; and skeletal muscle, which can be found in the arms and legs, is also striated. Skeletal muscle is often the kind that’s assessed for sarcopenia, a type of muscular atrophy in which age-related loss of muscle and strength is accelerated. Sarcopenia was classified as a disease in 2016. Muscle tissue is made up of long, slim fibers, each one containing a single muscle cell. The cells produce specific proteins—actin and myosin—that cause muscles to contract and relax like rubber bands at different speeds. But as we age, there is a decline in the overall number of muscle cells—along with mitochondria, which are essential for producing and storing energy in muscle. Mutations build up over time in the cells, sometimes causing the production of defunct proteins, which makes those rubber bands overstretched or less snappy, Studenski says.
Faulty muscle proteins and mitochondria, along with some other changes with age, have been linked to the impairment of the connection between muscles and the nervous system, called the neuromuscular junction. This junction between motor nerves and muscle tissue is where brain signals are transmitted for muscle contraction and movement. Issues in communication between nerves and muscles can create weakness and a decline in muscle mass.
Changes in hormone levels are also linked to age-related muscle loss. The gradual decrease in testosterone we experience as we age, for example, can lead to a decrease in the production of muscle proteins. Poor diet and malnutrition also influence muscle loss—generally, appetite and food intake tend to decrease with age.
PHYSICAL ACTIVITY AND EXERCISE
Though natural aging plays a dominant role in sarcopenia, lack of physical activity also contributes to the loss of muscle mass. As people age, they tend to become less active, Gray says. “There are some disease processes that occur [that cause muscle loss], but in a healthy adult who is aging, it really is a decrease in physical activity throughout the life span which is driving that negative change in muscle mass,” she says.
Sedentary or less active lifestyles don’t always lead to muscle loss in older adults, but movement and exercise influence muscle size and strength. Just a short break in muscle use can cause a reduction in muscle mass, even in younger people.
Proper diet and physical activity can combat some age-related muscle loss, Gray says. Maintaining muscle comes down to continued movement. “Doesn’t matter if you garden or if you ride a bicycle like I do or if you go to the gym,” she says. “You can help maintain your muscle mass by continuing to do the things that you’re already doing.”
Research over the decades have shown that resistance training in older adults can help to increase muscle mass. Several types of resistance training and exercises can help older adults, but Gray recommends high-velocity resistance-training programs. High-velocity resistance training targets muscle power (lifting weight quickly) in addition to strength (lifting a heavier weight). Typically, high-velocity training is practiced among athletes, such as football players, but Gray says basic exercises, such as power chair stands, leg lifts and triceps extensions, can also help older adults perform daily life activities.
“I’m not saying that our older adults need to be linebackers. But think about walking very quickly. Once in a while, I catch my foot on the tile going down the hallway, and I stumble,” she says. “I do kind of trip, but I don’t fall. The reason I don’t fall is twofold: I’m fast enough to be able to get my foot out in front of me, and I’m strong enough to be able to hold my own body weight.” If one of those two things is lost, you’ll fall, she says.
Muscle loss is a common contributor to severe falls and accidents that lead to injury or physical disability in older adults. Low muscle mass from sarcopenia can impact how well individuals can cope with cancer treatment, surgeries and heart and lung problems, Studenski says. It’s why understanding the causes of muscle loss and keeping up with regular activity is important as we age, Gray says. Remember, bulk isn’t everything, she adds. Even if people don’t notice muscle mass gains through resistance training at first, “you actually get stronger long before your muscles get bigger,” Studenski says. “That exercise is doing something to the wiring to the nervous system connection to the muscle.”
Gray and Studenski say that focusing on reinforcing that “wiring” is more important than muscle size. The foundation is key to improving basic physical functions people need to take care of themselves independently, Gray says.
“Even if an older adult who I have trained doesn’t improve muscle mass, but they’re able to walk faster, climb stairs faster, get in and out of the car easier, go on hikes with their grandkids, they have an increase in quality of life,” Gray says. “That part is the most important to me.”
Marketwatch – The chart plots the HSNSI over about three months of U.S. market trading days. The orange line reflects sentiment in the weeks leading up to the top of the internet bubble, while the gray line reflects sentiment over the weeks prior to now. By Mark Hulbert
Blackrock Q1 earnings growth was flat to slightly negative, Refinitiv and Factset data show. That masks significant divergence: We see a common denominator between what’s driving market performance this year and earnings – the artificial intelligence (AI) buzz. S&P 500 earnings forecasts for the next 12 months have risen in recent months (dark orange line in the chart) along with the market rally driven by tech firms with the largest market capitalization. Stripping out those mega-cap tech stocks, forecasts are flat this year (yellow line). 2023 consensus estimates have been cut but remain well above our expectation. We expect Q2 data will be similar to Q1 as the reporting season kicks off this week, with a contraction hitting in the second half of 2023.
4. Chinese Banks Price to Book 20 Year Move Downwards
The Bloomberg Intelligence gauge of Chinese bank stocks is trading at 0.27 times book value, just a whisker away from late October’s record low. That compares with 0.9 times for an index of global peers. The China gauge was little changed on Tuesday after registering mild gains early in the trading session.
At least 7,500 pedestrians died last year in America, the highest figure recorded for more than 40 years, according to the latest data from the GHSA. Although only a preliminary result — with data so far collated from 49 states — the numbers confirm that the trend of rising pedestrian fatalities has yet to stop. Indeed, fatalities are up more than 80% compared with the safest year on record, 2009, when ~4,100 pedestrians lost their lives.
Why are pedestrians at risk? Federal reports identify a few factors, including more dangerous driving during the pandemic as well as a lack of awareness and enforcement of laws that are intended to keep pedestrians safe. One author, Angie Schmitt, who explores the phenomenon in a recent book, also blames the rise in larger, heavier vehicles, as well as a generally aging population — who can be more vulnerable to accidents — for the increase in pedestrian fatalities.
Town planners have also been in the firing line. New lanes of traffic are often added to ease congestion, but that ends up limiting space for pedestrians. One traffic engineer blames the rise of “stroads”. The word refers to those that are some combination of “streets” — lower speed avenues where people can shop, dine and walk — and “roads” — which are designed to get cars from A to B quickly and efficiently. Places where the two are combined, without proper infrastructure like crosswalks and lighting, are reportedly responsible for a majority of the fatalities. Www.chartr.com
9. Average Credit Card Interest Hits Record High 22.2%
10. Surprising Solutions for Overthinking-Psychology
Quick, practical solutions for people who self-sabotage by overthinking.
If you think in-depth, you probably find that your tendency to overthink is both a strength and a weakness.
You may desire to retain the benefits of thoughtfulness while eliminating the self-defeating aspects of overthinking.
Attempt one of these three techniques to achieve that. Choose whichever strategy naturally appeals to you.
1. Execute once, then optimize.
Try taking this approach: Whenever you do anything for the first time, don’t try to optimize it. Instead, adopt the approach that you will execute once, with basic thinking, then optimize your approach the second and subsequent times you do whatever it is.
For example, I recently decided to buy a choline supplement. I got bogged down in factors like which brand to buy, which dose, which form, where to buy it from, and when. By employing the execute once approach, I selected an acceptable option, aware that I could obsess about the best choice during my next purchase.
The benefits? You’ll make quicker decisions, and probably learn more through your experience than from delaying.
2. Put your thoughts in a suitcase.
Anxiety tries to be helpful by not allowing us to forget about potential threats. It nags us by knock, knock, knocking to remind us of our worries and insecurities.
For example, filling out child development questionnaires on my baby’s milestones was stressing me out. I wanted to tell the pediatrician I didn’t want to do them but was worried she would think I was being neglectful. In reality, I’m hypervigilant about milestones; I didn’t need the questionnaires to make me even more so.
If you try to stop having a thought, anxiety tends to just get louder. However, what can sometimes work is imagining putting that thought aside somewhere safe where you won’t forget about it. The imagery I like is to imagine putting my worries in a suitcase, and then carrying it but not interacting with it.
This technique can create sufficient psychological distance from thoughts, enabling me to make more skillful choices in my actions. In this case, there was no reason to expect the pediatrician, who has always been supportive, would think I was being neglectful—and in fact, she reacted supportively again when I broached this topic.
3. Reflect on the benefits of both impulsive and well-thought-out decisions.
Remember I said at the outset that overthinking is both a strength and a weakness? People who overthink tend to be very willing to engage in meta-cognition, that is, thinking about their thinking. You can use that to your advantage here.
Try thinking of examples of good decisions you and others have made. What actions have led to awesome outcomes for you and other people you know?
Next, reflect on whether these were always well-thought-out decisions. In Stress-Free Productivity, I wrote about how some of my best decisions weren’t very well thought through. For example, I’ve put less research into house purchases than into some minor decisions, and yet these house purchases have turned out to be some of my best decisions. I also put relatively minimal thought into choosing a Ph.D. advisor, and yet that worked out wonderfully.
Sometimes good decisions are the result of exhaustive research and accurate perceptions, but not always. Other factors, like serendipity, or meeting the right person at the right time, can be influential too.
When you see this diverse pattern, it can help free you up. Overthinking is not the sole path to success. Engaging in random conversations, acting on instinct or impulse, or exploring topics that trigger your curiosity, even when you should be focused elsewhere, can also yield positive outcomes.
Sometimes it’s enough to recognize that you currently don’t overthink every decision, and that can work out fine, and even well. You can begin to see yourself as someone who sometimes overthinks, but not always.
It’s important not to be ashamed of overthinking. I’m being genuine when I say that it’s both an important strength and a frustrating weakness. Acknowledge the benefits of thinking deeply, but also master skills to dial it back when that is advantageous. This will give you maximum flexibility, lower stress, and the best results.
How did this article change your view of overthinking? What strategy are you excited to try?
9. Business Insider The restart of student loan payments is going to pressure the strong US consumer, as 34% of borrowers say they’ll be unable to make payments
Student loan borrowers and advocates gather for the People’s Rally To Cancel Student Debt During The Supreme Court Hearings On Student Debt Relief on February 28, 2023 in Washington, DC. Jemal Countess/Getty Images for People’s
The upcoming restart in student loan payments is set to weaken the US consumer, according to Morgan Stanley.
The bank conducted a survey of about 2,000 consumers and found some startling insights.
A whopping 34% of survey respondents said they will not be able to make the payments at all.
The upcoming restart of student loan payments could begin to weigh down a US consumer that has been remarkably resilient over the past year and a half.
According to a recent survey of about 2,000 consumers by Morgan Stanley, concerns over upcoming debt and mortgage payments has soared to the highest level since the survey began.
Part of that surge is due to this October’s restart of student loan payments, which have been paused since the start of the pandemic in March 2020. The average payment is between $300 and $400, based on various estimates.
“Only 29% of consumers who have federal student loans are confident they will have enough money to start making payments without adjusting spending in other areas,” Morgan Stanley said.
Meanwhile, 37% of respondents said they will need to cut their spending in other areas to make the student loan payments, while a whopping 34% of respondents said they will not be able to make the payments at all. In this case, the restart of payments will negatively impact low-income households the most, according to the survey.
Consumers’ concerns about the impact of the imminent restart of student loan payments spilled over into other their areas of their finances.
Morgan Stanley said 31% of consumers were worried about their ability to repay debts and 27% to pay rent or mortgage, with both metrics hitting all time highs.
As a segment of consumers start to feel increased pressures heading into the fall when student loan payments restart, discretionary spending categories could see the biggest decline if consumers need to tighten their belts, according to the note.
The discretionary categories with the most strongly negative net spending intentions were consumer electronics, toys, home appliances, food away from home, and leisure/entertainment.
“Overall, the majority of consumers surveyed (61%) continue to say they are likely to cut back on spending over the next six months,” Morgan Stanley said.
Most of our lives are filled with “or” decisions. You can have this or that. You can save money for the big party or you can go out for lunch. You can have exactly one thing for dessert–cake or fruit.
But the war for our attention has given us more than a million things to watch on YouTube, another million songs to listen to on Qobuz, and unlimited bingeing (which didn’t even use to be a word) on dozens of streaming channels.
No or. Simply and.
This means that choices have fewer consequences. It means that time counts for less, it simply fades away. And it turns the sharp relief of choice into the borderless fatigue of ‘whatever’.
Even when it’s possible to avoid a choice, it may make sense to make one.
1. Investors Load Up on Bullish Bets at End of June
Dave Lutz Jones Trading THE FLOW SHOW– Investors piled into bullish bets on US stock futures toward the end of June, leaving positioning looking “very extended” and raising the risk of a pullback, Citigroup Inc. strategists said. New longs of about $7.1 billion were added to S&P 500 futures last week, and investors are sitting on “moderately large profits,” according to a note from the bank dated July 3.
2. 90-DAY Absolute Return Spreads in Stocks
KAILASH CONCEPTS -The chart below shows the 90-day performance of the following six groups of stocks, from left to right:
The largest 100 stocks in the Nasdaq that outperformed the index rose 31.6% in the last 90 days
The 100 largest stocks in the Nasdaq were up 16.5% over the last 90 days
The Russell 1000 growth index rose 10.3% over the last 90 days
The Nasdaq 100’s largest stocks that underperformed the index rose only 4.3% in the last 90 days
The S&P 500 rose 3.7% over the last 90 days
The Russell 1000 value index fell -2.8% over the last 90 days
This morning we have published our summer chart book entitled “If a recession was 6 months away, would markets & data tell you?” (link here). Henry and I will be doing a webinar on it at 2pm London time (9am ET) on Thursday July 13th. You can register Here to watch.
To help answer the question posed, the core of the chart book looks at how various assets and data perform leading up to previous US recessions through history, and compares that to what’s happened over the last couple of years. DB’s house view is for a US recession starting in Q4 2023, that could potentially get pushed back into Q1 2024. So these charts assume we’re 6 months away from a recession, and benchmarks where we are today against that point in previous cycles.
Today’s CoTD looks at equities in this framework. As you can see, the S&P 500 has on average performed very well from 2 years out up until the year before a US recession. However in the 12 months prior it flatlines (underperforming the long-term trend) before starting to fall 1-2 months before the recession. So you don’t get falls until the downturn is within touching distance but you do get sideways markets a year out.
This cycle is quite different at the moment. The S&P 500 was very weak “2 years out” for most of that year and then very strong over the last 6-9 months. So if you just look at this year there is absolutely no signal from equities that a recession is coming. However two caveats. Firstly if we did get a recession by year-end its likely at this stage that the 2-year lead-up to it would be the weakest equity performance in this post-WWII sample, so evidence of market concern in the lead-up as the rate environment completely changed. The second caveat is that as slide 9 in the pack shows, the equal weight S&P 500 has been trading more sideways over the last year, and much more typical of what you would see if a recession was now 6 months out. So it depends on your view of whether those handful of mega-cap tech stocks can influence the macro outlook.
4. Mid and Small-Cap Participated in June
JP Morgan Private Wealth.
5. Interest Costs are Projected to Eat Up 35% of Federal Revenue in the Future
10. Democracy Still Winning-Scott Galloway No Mercy No Malice Blog
The Good News-Over the long term, democracy is steadily beating autocracy. A hundred years ago, for every five autocracies there was one democracy. Today, democracy is the most popular form of governance.
