Topley’s Top Ten – May 14, 2018

Want some good news? S&P 500 is positive YTD and it is May. You have to go back to ’90 last time that happened and the full year didn’t sport a total return that was positive. In fact, since ’70, the full year has been green 35 out of 36 years that saw the SPX up YTD in May (@RyanDetrick)

 1.Short to Intermediate Term NYSE Advance/Decline Bullish.


The Advance-Decline Line (AD Line) is a breadth indicator based on Net Advances, which is the number of advancing stocks less the number of declining stocks. Net Advances is positive when advances exceed declines and negative when declines exceed advances. The AD Line is a cumulative measure of Net Advances. It rises when Net Advances is positive and falls when Net Advances is negative. Chartists can use Net Advances to plot the AD Line for the index and compare it to the performance of the actual index. The AD Line should confirm an advance or a decline with similar movements. Bullish or bearish divergences in the AD Line signal a change in participation that could foreshadow a reversal.

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Topley’s Top Ten – May 9, 2018 (Short Version)

1.Spread Between Defensive Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary Has Only Been Higher in 2000

On page 6 of this month’s report, we provide the chart below which shows the spread between the weightings for Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples.  At +6.12 percentage points, the only time Consumer Discretionary’s weight versus Consumer Staples has been higher was in April 2000.

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