1. Small Caps Hit 22-Year Low vs. Large Cap

2. Less than Half of Small Cap Trading Over 200 Day Moving Average

3. Internet Bubble Tech Superstars….Only MSFT Beat the S&P Post Bubble

From Irrelevant Investor Blog Interview with Rob Arnott

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com

4. ARM IPO 20,000 Fidelity Retail Orders

Business Insider

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/retail-investors-pile-into-arm-stock-first-day-ai-exposure-2023-9?_gl=1*xv36kw*_ga*MTQ2NjcxNDY2Mi4xNjk0NzcyOTEw*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTY5NDc3MjkxMC4xLjEuMTY5NDc3MzkzNi4zMy4wLjA

IPO ETF still trading at half its highs

www.stockcharts.com

5. Tech Re-Taking Leadership is Historical Anomaly

Ben Carlson Blog

The leaders in the stock market going into a crisis are rarely the leaders coming out of a crisis. There is something about a regime change in the economic cycle that tends to shift the way investors allocate their capital to different sectors of the market.

There was a sea change this around too…for a little bit.Last year during the rising inflation and interest rate environment, growth stocks got killed while value stocks finally had their time in the sun after a decade of tech stock dominance.

Yet here we are again with the same huge growth stocks leading the way. The Nasdaq 100 is up 40% this year after falling 33% last year.

The Man Group performed some research on the top 100 stocks in the S&P 500 each decade going back to the 1960s to show that many of the leaders from the previous era typically fall from their perch:

This happened every decade…until the 2010s.

The top stocks more or less remained the top stocks.

History tells us tech stocks should underperform in a meaningful way eventually.

This time is different typically gets you into trouble but John Templeton himself once said 20% of the time it really is different.

Maybe tech stocks broke the mold. Maybe they are setting up for a huge fall.

You could talk me into either argument right now.

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2023/09/6-questions-im-pondering-at-the-moment/

6. Oracle Correction Only Takes Stock Back to June Levels….Low was $60

7. China New Economic Numbers

If You Believe China Numbers.???

From Zerohedge

… moments ago we got the latest Chinese data dump for the month of August, which showed that – as expected – the world’s 2nd biggest economy has rebounded from the bottom and may be stabilizing. Here are the highlights:

August Retail sales +4.6%, beating exp. +3.0%, Last +2.5%
August Industrial Output +4.5%, beating exp. +3.9%, Last +3.7%
Jan-Aug Fixed Investment +3.2%, missing exp. +3.3%, Last 3.4%
Jan-Aug Property Development investment -8.8%, Last -8.5%
China apparent oil demand +22.7% to 14.74mm b/d, unchanged from July
New property construction falls -24.4% YTD y/y to 639MM sq.m
August new home prices, excluding affordable housing, -0.29% m/m

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/china-data-dump-largely-beats-estimates-slumping-economy-finally-rebounds

8. Used Car Price Drop 2023

9. Demand for Vacation Homes are 47% Below Pre-Pandemic Levels

@Charlie Bilello

10. The Curious Mind: A Key to Mental Wellness

Psychology Today Studies show curiosity is a powerful tool for mental health and well-being. Jennifer Gerlach LCSW

Curiosity can be thought of as the psychological equivalent of a healthy heartbeat.
Strong curiosity is a sign of mental health.
There are many ways to cultivate curiosity, such as revisiting childhood joys or doing something unexpected.

There is something magical about walking through a path in the fall looking up at the leaves, or finding a song for a moment that you want to lean into to understand where the artist stood. This enchantment is curiosity.

Research points to the many benefits of curiosity from improvements in memory (Gruber, & Ranganath, 2019), creativity, and precious “flow” states (Schutte and Malouff, 2020). It is associated with higher life satisfaction (Proctor et al., 2011) and, contrary to the adage that curiosity kills the cat, has also been linked with aging well (Sakaki et al., 2018).

When we feel safe, we are free to explore. When we feel in a space of threat, our focus narrows and we lose interest. Evolutionarily, this makes sense. At moments during which our ancestors faced the threats of their day, often predators, it would not have been wise to stare in wonder at the leaf. We are the descendants of the people who didn’t get eaten.

Today, most fears we face are social and last longer than a run from a bear. Yet, we have many barriers to feeling safe and being curious. Repeated traumatic experiences or anxiety can put us in a space where the threat system is hyper-activated making it difficult for us to access our drive for discovery.

Loss of interest in activities is a hallmark symptom of depression. Even schizophrenia is often associated with negative symptoms marked by a decrease in seeking pleasurable activities, the byproduct of anhedonia, avolition, and emotional blunting.

Conversely, recent research shows that curiosity may be a protective factor against anxiety and depression (Zainal, & Newman, 2023), as well as that creative interventions can improve curiosity (Schutte and Maloff, 2022), garnering individuals a whole host of benefits.

Perhaps we can think about curiosity as the psychological equivalent of a healthy heartbeat. As we struggle with mental health, it’s common for us to lose our pulse with our curiosity. Similarly, by engaging curiosity through exercises of creativity there is much to be gained.

While curiosity is not often discussed as a key therapeutic tool, many therapists utilize it. As a psychotherapist, my office space is designed to encourage a hammock swing for my clients to sit on, a treasure chest filled with varying objects, and art supplies.

Most other therapists also take this into account when cultivating a therapyenvironment. Art therapists have engaged curiosity and creativity in healing for decades, and certain therapy styles, such as compassion-focused therapy, involve activities to activate the soothing/affiliative system in which we are often free to be curious.

So how can you grow your sense of curiosity? Here are five ways:

1. Revisit Childhood Joys. When you were a kid, did you like to fly kites? What about riding your bike around the neighborhood? These things still exist. Engaging joys from the past can lift our curiosity.

2. Do Something Unexpected. Routine drives away opportunities for new things. Sometimes, it is worthwhile to take a turn into something unplanned. This could be something as simple as stopping at the apple butter stop as you are driving home or taking a different route to work.

3. Pick Something Random and Learn About It. Many of us have had interests in the past that we let go of. Did you stop learning about space when you realized that your life path was not headed toward becoming an astronaut? Curiosity is not about learning only things that have practical significance. The world is wide and there is so much to marvel at.

4. Ask Questions. Curiosity thrives on wonder. Sometimes we have questions that we never ask. We don’t allow ourselves to open those doors. It’s OK to ask questions. Questions often deepen connections.

5. Explore a New Place. You don’t have to get on an airplane to travel. Maybe there is a restaurant you have never eaten at or a park you have never visited. Allowing yourself to experience these new places could foster curiosity.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/beyond-mental-health/202309/the-curious-mind-a-key-to-mental-wellness

Topley’s Top 10 – September 14, 2023

September 14, 2023

Matt Topley

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. Two Break-Out Charts…10 Year Treasury and Energy SPDR

XLE energy etf

2. Gasoline Prices Hit Resistance for at these Levels for Last 12 Months

3. Shrinking Stock of Crude Oil Reserves

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright

4. T-Bills…Retail Buys $1 Trillion of New Notes in Three Months

Bloomberg-With rates on cash and cash-like instruments at the highest in more than two decades and offering more income than benchmark US debt or stocks, assets in money-market funds have swelled to a record. But nowhere is that appetite for liquid, high-yielding instruments more apparent than in the market for T-bills where investors have snapped up more than $1 trillion of new notes in just the last three months.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/treasury-bills-yielding-5-big-110000346.html

5. Japan ETF vs. China ETF

6. Japan +15% vs. China -4.3% YTD

www.yahoofinance.com

7. U.S. Direct Investment in China

From Dave Lutz Jones Trading

8. First-Time Homebuyers are 32% of Net Sales

9. Depopulation of Italy…Number of Deaths Exceeding Births

For the first time, the number of births in a year fell below 400,000 – representing an average of 1.25 babies per woman, according to official figures for 2022.

This means that the replacement rate is now negative, since the number of deaths currently exceeds the number of births – 12 deaths for every seven births.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/17/europe/italy-record-low-birth-rate-intl-cmd/index.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-25/musk-sees-extinction-of-italians-on-persisting-low-birth-rate?sref=GGda9y2L

10. 5 Mental Habits That Limit Our Ability to Think Wisely

Guy Winch Ph.D. Psychology Today

Our brain is like a computer processor: It has a finite amount of processing power, or intellectual resources, that can be used in a given moment. Any competing task (or emotional state) that occupies too much of our intellectual firepower impacts our ability to concentrate, focus, problem-solve, be creative, or use other cognitive abilities; as a result, our functioning IQ is temporarily lowered.

To demonstrate this principle, try walking while counting down from 1,000 by sevens (1,000, 993, 986, etc.). You will soon stop walking. Why? Your brain has to work so hard to do this math that it doesn’t have enough resources left to tell your legs to put one foot in front of the other.

Most common competing tasks do not have a significant impact on our ability to work or study. Most of us can do homework while listening to music and can become absorbed in a book while eating.

However, some psychological habits, like the 5 below, consume such huge amounts of intellectual resources that they diminish our cognitive capacities. Few people are aware that these psychological habits have such a detrimental effect, so they are unlikely to pause what they’re doing—and this can seriously affect a person’s ability to perform a task at full capacity.

1. Brooding

Replaying upsetting, frustrating, or distressing events over and over again—especially when doing so frequently or habitually—can make our minds race with thoughts or stir us up emotionally, severely taxing our intellectual resources. In addition to impacting our cognitive functioning, brooding (also known as ruminating) can present real dangers to our emotional and even our physical health. (See “The Seven Hidden Dangers of Brooding.”)

2. Unresolved Guilt

We all feel guilty from time to time. When we do, we typically apologize or take some kind of action to resolve our guilty feelings. However, when guilt is not addressed and repeatedly pops into your mind, it creates a huge cognitive distraction that seriously impairs cognitive functioning. The solution is to put guilty feelings behind you as best you can. (See “The Secret of Effective Apologies.”)

3. Ineffective Complaining

Most people are likely to share their frustrations with friends rather than discuss them with someone who could help resolve them. The problem is that each time we tell our tale, we become frustrated and annoyed. Anger and frustration require significant processing power and enable ineffective complaints to become a regular drain on our brainpower.

4. Overanalyzing Rejection

Rejection creates emotional pain that significantly impacts our mood and has a serious impact on cognitive functioning. It also causes us to become self-critical, a habit that further damages our self-esteem, extending the duration of our emotional distress—and with it, our compromised cognitive abilities. (See “10 Surprising Facts about Rejection.”)

5. Worrying

Many people don’t consider worrying harmful. “I’m just a bit of a worrier,” we might say with a wry smile. But worrying creates an uncomfortable and unpleasant emotional state, and it can be seriously distracting. When we’re worried about something, it tends to take priority in our minds, and push everything else to the side. Fortunately, it’s easier to address and resolve worry (by thinking through potential solutions) than it is anxiety. (See “The Difference Between Anxiety and Worry.”)

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-squeaky-wheel/201606/5-mental-habits-that-limit-our-ability-to-think-wisely

Topley’s Top 10 – September 13, 2023

September 13, 2023

Matt Topley

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. Global Fund Managers Biggest Switch Ever into U.S. Stocks Out of Emerging Markets

Marketwatch-By Steve GoldsteinGlobal fund managers have just made their biggest shift ever into U.S. stocks and out of emerging market equities, according to Bank of America’s long-running monthly survey released Tuesday.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fund-managers-just-made-their-biggest-shift-ever-into-u-s-stocks-and-out-of-emerging-markets-4e187674?mod=home-page

2. Zero Percent of Investors Expect Positive Chinese Economy Next 12 Months

The Daily Shot Brief https://dailyshotbrief.com/

3. U.S. Tech Stocks Outperformance Vs. Global Tech Stocks

Top Down Charts Key point: US tech stocks massively + persistently outperformed global tech stocks

4. Equal Weight S&P and Energy Sector

Jim Reid Deutsche Bank A few other things look different YoY than YTD. Today’s CoTD looks at two interesting YoY lines that are now broadly flat.

Firstly, we have oil, which in June was c.-45% YoY, but is now +0.3% YoY. That’s helping to reverse the sharp pace of falls in the headline US CPI over the last 12 months or so, and is topical for tomorrow since rising gasoline prices mean we expect a +0.6% mom print for headline CPI – the highest since June 2022. See our economists’ preview here.

Secondly, the equal-weight S&P 500 is now ‘only’ up +0.5% YoY, which relative to history is a notable underperformance, especially when you think of the buoyant equity mood this year. The same index is up +4.3% YTD but all of those gains were made by January 11th.

As we know, the mega cap tech stocks mean the actual S&P 500 is +16.8% YTD and +9.2% YoY with the “Magnificent Seven” (equal-weighted) almost solely responsible and +95% YTD and +45% YoY.

What does it say about the economy that the equal-weighted S&P 500 is actually now flat since April 2021? Does it suggest more difficulties adjusting to the higher rate world than broader market cap indices in 2023 suggest? Or is reducing the weight of those mega caps data mining too much and is big tech an important part of the modern US economy? For context the Russell 2000 is -2.67% YoY and back to November 2020 levels. Since then, consumer prices are +16.7% higher so a dramatic underperformance in real terms.

5. AAPL Support $170-172…Then 200day Moving Average

6. Tesla +150% YTD….Down -8.5% One-Year

Tesla Highs were Over $400

www.stockcharts.com

7. PTON Breaks to New Lows

8. What Powers the World? Visual Capitalist

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/electricity-sources-by-fuel-in-2022/

9. Starbucks CEO: ‘I don’t know if we can keep our bathrooms open’

The coffee giant told employees in May 2018 to let anyone use the restroom, even if they haven’t bought anything.

WASHINGTON — Starbucks may consider reversing its policy to let anyone, including non-customers, use their bathrooms, according to Starbucks interim CEO Howard Schultz.

Schultz, a longtime Starbucks leader who rejoined the company as interim CEO in April, was chairman when the open bathroom policy was first implemented in May 2018.

The policy was introduced after the controversial arrest of two Black men at one of the company’s Philadelphia locations. The men had been asked to leave a store after one was denied access to the bathroom. They were arrested by police after sitting down to wait for a business meeting. Witnesses captured the incident on video and it went viral.

At the time the policy was announced, Schultz said he didn’t want the company to “become a public bathroom” but they didn’t want people to feel “less than” if they were refused access.

During an appearance Thursday at The New York Times DealBook D.C. policy forum, Schultz said a growing mental health crisis was making it hard for employees to manage stores.

“We serve 100 million people at Starbucks and there is an issue of just safety in our stores, in terms of people coming in who use our stores as a public bathroom,” Schultz said. “And we have to provide a safe environment for our people and our customers. The mental health crisis in the country is severe, acute and getting worse.”

“We have to harden our stores and provide safety for our people,” Schultz explained. “I don’t know if we can keep our bathrooms open.”

https://www.king5.com/article/news/nation-world/starbucks-open-bathroom-policy-may-end-ceo-says/507-70615a1f-fb2b-4b9a-893b-afee9e3396b3

10. My 95-year-old Japanese grandfather is a former cardiologist—his 8 ‘non-negotiables’ for a long, happy life

Mika Cribbs, Contributor CNBC

This summer, I visited my 95-year-old grandfather in his hometown of Osaka, Japan. I wanted to spend more time with him and learn about the activities that keep him so healthy and happy.

A retired cardiologist, his creative, community-driven outlook and purposeful way of living have always inspired me. He’s a great example of how to age gracefully.

Here are his eight non-negotiables for a long and happy life:

1. He takes an early morning walk

My grandparents are early risers. By 5 a.m., they’ve already begun their morning stroll. They usually walk for 30 minutes to an hour, and get in at least 7,000 steps.

Whether they’re hiking mountainous trails to the Minoh Falls or doing laps around the Ikeda neighborhood, my grandparents’ use their walks to start their days from a place of strength.

Don’t miss: 100-year-old sisters share 5 simple tips for leading a long, happy life

2. He does an intentional workout

After his walk, he does a tailored workout routine. He starts by stretching, then does a series of strength training and balancing exercises.

He carefully chooses different exercises every day based on his abilities and needs to ensure he stays active without straining his body.

3. He connects with loved ones on social media

After he completes his workout, he pulls out his laptop and logs into Facebook and Instagram.

Studies have found that social isolation of older adults results in high rates of loneliness, particularly among older men.

My grandfather has my grandmother to boost his emotional well-being. But he also maintains strong ties to people in his global community, including his grandchildren in the U.S., through this time online.

4. He writes in his blog

Since 2014, he has spent a few minutes almost every day writing his thoughts, experiences and insights on his blog. It now has well over 1,000 posts.

It’s easy to lose our drive when we don’t see immediate results, but my grandfather’s blog is a culmination of a few minutes of writing spanned over several years. It’s a good reminder of the value of small, consistent actions.

5. He creates art

My grandfather is an accomplished artist. Every day he sits down and draws his self-portrait. As he carefully sketches each line, shading and detail, he uses the time to get a better understanding of himself.

In a world where we are often on the go, seeing him take the the time to slow down and look inward has motivated me to do the same.

6. He makes time for new hobbies

During the pandemic, my grandfather started gardening after being inspired by the flowers and plants he saw on his walks.

And at my grandmother’s suggestion, he started playing the recorder, a woodwind musical instrument, because he thought it would help with his breathing and swallowing.

It’s never too late to learn new skills. I love how my grandfather remains open-minded and adventurous, always seeking novel experiences to fuel his curiosity — and is never afraid to fail.

7. He takes multiple naps

After all that exercise, he makes sure to stop and refuel several times per day in order to maintain his energy.

He usually takes his first half-hour nap in the morning, around 8 or 9 a.m., and often falls asleep again in the afternoons while reading.

His self-awareness to know when to take these breaks has been a major contributor to his longevity.

8. He eats indulgent meals

My grandfather is incredibly active, but he also has a real love for life’s pleasures, including savoring red meats, cheeses and drinking fine wines.

However, on the healthier side, my grandmother always serves a variety of vegetables in her homecooked Japanese meals, like her delicious curry.

While Western norms might label some of his dietary choices as unhealthy, his exceptional well-being at 95 is a testament to the fact that many different factors contribute to longevity, and balance is perhaps the most important.

In Japan, we have a concept called “ikigai,” or “sense of purpose.” There is no single precise set of instructions for good health and happiness. The most important thing is to find out what your purpose looks like, and like my grandfather, pursue that path with care, intention and joy.

Mika Cribbs is a content creator and graphic designer from Los Angeles. She currently works at GUESS as a content producer, and has worked in fashion, beauty and entertainment. Beyond the screen, you’ll find her trying new foods, traveling, and cherishing moments with family and friends.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/07/95-year-old-cardiologist-shares-rules-for-a-long-healthy-and-happy-life.html

Topley’s Top 10 – September 12, 2023

September 12, 2023

Matt Topley

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. U.S. Importing More Goods from Mexico than China for First Time Since 2003

2. Bonds Not Liking Rally in Energy

From Abnormal Returns Blog www.abnormalreturns.com

3. Apple vs. QQQ Chart…AAPL starting to underperform the QQQ’s

AAPL stock 50day thru 200day to downside in chart vs. QQQ

4. Higher Rates Start to Squeeze Consumer

Bloomberg By Reade Pickert and Vildana Hajric

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-11/us-consumer-is-likely-to-start-cutting-back-hurting-economy-and-stocks?srnd=premium&sref=GGda9y2L

5. Another Alt Energy Chart….Orsted Wind Farm Stock -40% 2023…Breaks to New Lows

6. Tesla Pricing Intra-Year 2023

Found at Irrelevant Investor Blog

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2023/09/08/the-compound-and-friends-27/

7. Twitter (X)Employee Count

NOLITA

https://www.expressvpn.com/blog/twitter-in-numbers/

8. Country Garden China’s Largest Property Developer has $100B Ghost Town in Malaysia

Forest City, a luxury estate in southern Malaysia, is one of the most controversial developments in the country’s history. Six years into development, the $100 billion estate is already a ghost town. Marielle Descalsota

Forest City, Johor Bahru, Malaysia. Marielle Descalsota/Insider

The development is in Johor Bahru, Malaysia, just north of Singapore. It was built by Country Garden, China’s largest property developer.

Forest City is huge: It spreads across 1,740 hectares, or four times the size of city-state Monaco. Around 700,000 people were initially expected to live in the estate.

But as of 2019, only around 500 people lived in the estate, according to a 2019 report by Foreign Policy. An expert who declined to be named for security reasons told me the estate’s population has since grown to several thousand — which is still less than 5% of the expected number of residents.

Country Garden declined to comment on the number of residents in the development.

https://www.insider.com/ghost-town-malaysia-forest-city-china-developer-estate-photos-2022-6#forest-city-a-luxury-estate-in-southern-malaysia-is-one-of-the-most-controversial-developments-in-the-countrys-history-six-years-into-development-the-100-billion-estate-is-already-a-ghost-town-1

9. The State of Betting in the U.S.-USA TODAY….Is it me or the entire NFL is now Vegas?

Where in the United States is sports betting legal, and where can you place your wagers online? Check out our interactive map of the U.S. for updated legal news and recent state sports betting developments.

https://sportsdata.usatoday.com/legality-map

10. The Myth of American Decline…Prof G/Scott Galloway Blog

Read full story https://www.profgalloway.com/least-bad/

Topley’s Top 10 – September 11, 2023

September 11, 2023

Matt Topley

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. Crude Oil Inventories at 40 Year Low

Dave Lutz Jones Trading…BofA noting Crude Inventories are at a 40year low… Net Bullish Nymex WTI Crude Oil Bets Boosted to 15-Month High

2. U.S. Interest Payments Equal Military Spending

3. S&P Profit Margins 5 Year Chart

JP Morgan Private Wealth Management

https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/gl/en/home?c3api=3432,106135151200,kwd-823077195555&gclid=Cj0KCQjw9fqnBhDSARIsAHlcQYSP85OsLI5CrZnxc_sv9UqDtHx6jLQUaiWXwV9bAIogQixdLHTxiLYaAn9pEALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds

4. #1 Performing Commodity 2023…Sugar +45%

www.stockcharts.com

5. America Still Loves Sugar…Twinkies vs. S&P

6. Investors Bailed on Energy ETFs 2023

From Callum Thomas Chart Storm Out of Energy: ETF investors completely bailed on energy stocks this year. (contrarians, take note) https://www.chartstorm.info/

Source: @Todd_Sohn via The Chart Report

7. Workers Share of GDP Across the World.

From Barry Ritholtz Big Picture Blog

Source: Reddit https://ritholtz.com/2023/09/10-friday-am-reads-422/

8. A Record Amount of Americans Plan to Travel Internationally

Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, PartnerApollo Global Management The Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey asks households if they plan to travel to a foreign country, and the first chart below shows that a record-high share of US consumers are planning to go on vacation to a foreign country within the next six months.

The continued strong demand for consumer services is the reason why it is so difficult for the Fed to get supercore inflation under control. US households want to travel on airplanes, stay at hotels, eat at restaurants, go to sporting events, amusement parks, and concerts, and that is why inflation in the nonhousing service sector continues to be so high, see the second chart.

The bottom line is that rates will stay higher for longer because the Fed is not succeeding with getting nonhousing service sector inflation under control.

9. Cruises Exceed Pre-Pandemic Levels.

Chartr Blog All aboard! So, the headline is that cruises are back. Indeed, cruise tourism is expected to make a titanic comeback this year, with passenger volumes forecast to exceed pre-pandemic levels by 6% — increasing at an even faster rate than overall international tourist arrivals in 2023, which are only estimated to have returned to 80-95% of the number of voyagers seen in 2019.

Operator Global Ports Holdings, which claims to be the world’s largest cruise port operator, revealed almost 2x as many passengers across its network in the three months to June 30, translating to a quarterly revenue increase of 60%.

Furthermore, the largest cruise operators in the world are showing little problem filling the rooms on their increasingly enormous fleets. Royal Caribbean experienced record-breaking demand for its new flagship Icon of the Seas — set to be delivered in October — which is nothing short of a remarkable feat of engineering. Coming in at 1,196 feet, or nearly 4 Statues of Liberty laid end-to-end, Icon will offer its 5,600+ guests the choice of 6 waterslides, 7 pools, 19 floors to explore, and 40+ bars and restaurants.

Not waving, but drowningThat demand suggests that the industry is getting back on an even keel, with consistent profits likely to follow. Indeed, in the decade 2010-2019, Carnival Corporation — at the time the world’s largest cruise ship company — was a slick operation, raking in more than $24bn in operating profits across those 10 years, with ~$3.3bn coming in 2019 alone. But, the pandemic very nearly sunk the ship, kickstarting 3 cash-hemorrhaging years for the company and industry at large.

Below deck As passengers have gradually started to don their deck shoes once again, Carnival’s revenues have crept up, but still not enough to match the costs that come with operating the floating hotels. Just fueling its fleet, for example, cost Carnival a whopping $2.2 billion in 2022. All told, Carnival Corp. reported an operating loss of $4.4 billion as passenger tickets and onboard sales failed to rebound sufficiently… and that was a significant improvement on the $7.1 billion loss the year before.

www.chartr.com

10. 3 Tips to Master the Art of Difficult Conversations in Your Business

Don’t shy away from hard conversations. Look at them as catalysts for growth, enhancing both your business and personal development.

BY ENTREPRENEURS’ ORGANIZATION@ENTREPRENEURORG

Shawn Johal is an Entrepreneurs’ Organization (EO) member in Montreal, a leadership speaker, bestselling author, and founder of Elevation Leaders, a business growth practice helping companies 10X their business valuation. We asked Shawn how he handles challenging conversations in his company. Here’s what he shared:

A staggering 85 percent of teams face conflict in the workplace. Nearly 30 percent of those conflicts directly result in reduced productivity.

As a Business Growth Coach, I’ve encountered many entrepreneurs who struggle to initiate difficult conversations in their companies. It usually stems from one of two scenarios:

First, there’s the guilt-ridden entrepreneur who asks, “How can I deliver honest feedback without crushing this person’s spirits?” On the other hand, there’s the entrepreneur who embraces conflict a bit too comfortably. They might say, “I don’t enjoy confrontation, but until we become a billion-dollar company… .”

High-impact conversations are psychological and can trigger emotional responses. In growth times or in crisis times (for some companies, life oscillates between the two), these high-emotion moments tend to manifest more frequently.

Building a business with the potential to 10X doesn’t stop at processes, strategy, hiring, or cash flow management. The ability to engage in, and successfully emerge on the positive end of, hard conversations either contributes to or hinders a company’s growth.

So, whether you’re facing a challenging dialogue with a direct report, a business partner, an investor, or your peers, here are three strategies to master the art of difficult conversations.

1. Create a Safe Space

We hear the term “safe space” everywhere lately. But what is it, and how can we actually create one?

We all value a place where we can freely share our thoughts and concerns without fear of judgment or consequence. It’s part of the human experience, and it applies to business contexts, too. At its core, a “safe space” is an environment — a feeling in the air.

To create one, start by giving your undivided attention. When someone is speaking, be fully present and attentive. Forget about your busy schedule or the next point you want to make. Show that you genuinely value their words and opinions.

Then, lead with empathy. It’s easy to get caught up in our own perspectives, but difficult conversations require understanding. Put yourself in their shoes and try to see things from their point of view. The other party will quickly feel understood.

When we’re able to achieve this, our businesses can overcome daily obstacles with greater ease and progress through constructive dialogue.

2. Find Common Ground

There is no successful outcome to a difficult conversation unless you first establish common ground.

I’ll never forget the time I found myself in a critical meeting with a CEO who seemed more interested in his phone than our discussion. His entire leadership team of senior experts was in the room, but he wanted nothing to do with the (very significant) issue at hand. It felt as if this CEO was in one corner of the room while the entire C-suite sat in the opposite corner. Nobody looked at each other. Such a tense moment!

How did it get resolved? I focused my communication on one thing: Reiterating the shared objective everyone in the room had (a successful outcome that benefited the business). Identifying common ground — the “one thing” that everyone in that room equally wanted — reminded each person that they shared a collective purpose that mattered to them.

When you find yourself in a complicated conversation, reflect on the common ground that connects all parties. Finding that shared objective will pave the way forward.

3. Don’t Let Emotions Get the Best of You

The thing about emotions is: They are highly contagious. If you enter a difficult conversation with your emotions on your sleeve, the other party involved will likely get emotional, too. Things can get unproductive — fast.

To prevent that, pay attention to your tone of voice, body language, and choice of words. Non-verbal cues can have a major impact on how your message is received. Strive to maintain a composed demeanor, using a tone that conveys respect and openness.

Phrases like “I’m disappointed” or “You could’ve” can come across as accusatory. Instead, focus on stating facts, seeking their perspective, and sharing your experience.

However, if you notice the emotional intensity escalating to a point where it hinders productive communication, recognize when it’s time to pause the meeting. Remember, your mental health should never be compromised during these discussions.

Sometimes, it feels like navigating difficult discussions is part of a business owner’s job description. I personally spent years figuring out how to best handle these conversations. Applying key tactics helps — but none of the tactics work if you don’t adjust your mindset first.

My advice to all entrepreneurs: Don’t shy away from hard conversations. Look at them as catalysts for growth, enhancing both your business and personal development.

If you figure out how to 10X the success of difficult conversations, you can 10X the productivity, culture, and profitability of your company; I guarantee it!

https://www.inc.com/entrepreneurs-organization/3-tips-to-master-art-of-difficult-conversations-in-your-business.html?utm_source=newsletters&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=inc%20-%20this%20morning%20newsletter.newsletter%20-%20inc%20-%20this%20morning%209-11-23&leadid=1548979&mkt_tok=njewluxfrs04nziaaagoiv8xdqujn0g0ssm7gebuilh6opjyjzlhhmaxkjge0x7e5zmxadpokao3ghoe-2rmgdu9afw4rny8diqxzyluobzddbk_duixntnipg_n