1. Sept/October Historically Weak During Election Year.
LPL BLOG
LPL Blog 
Topley’s Top 10 – September 1, 2020
1. What Did Stock Splits Look Like During the Internet Bubble vs. Today?
From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading
2. Get Ready for a Crazy Wave of IPOs. Here Are the Ones to Watch.
Sandy Miller, general partner at Institutional Venture Partners, notes that the number of public companies has fallen in half over the last 20 years, as M&A has outstripped new issues. “There’s a real hunger for new names,” he says.
Coming Attractions:
A few of the tech companies that filed for IPOs this past week.
| Company | Latest Fiscal Year Sales | Description |
| Corsair Gaming | $1.1 billion | Video game accessories |
| Palantir | 743 million | Data analytics |
| Bentley Systems | 608 million | Construction engineering SW |
| Unity Software | 542 million | Video game developer tools |
| Snowflake | 265 million | Cloud data management |
| Sumo Logic | 155 million | Data analytics |
| Asana | 143 million | Work management software |
| JFrog | 105 million | Software release management |
Source: company reports
The supply is deep. Venture-backed unicorns—pre-IPO companies with valuations above $1 billion—are piling up like kindling. According to CB Insights, there are 490 unicorns. By contrast, there are just shy of 2,000 companies trading on the Nasdaq or the New York Stock Exchange with valuations above $1 billion. In other words, if all the unicorns magically listed at once, the number of large cap U.S.-listed companies would increase by 25%. Most but not all unicorns are tech businesses, so consider this: Over the past three years, there have been a total of 100 tech IPOs. The current supply of unicorns is equal to 14 years of tech stock debuts.
https://www.cbinsights.com/research/best-venture-capital-unicorn-spotters-2/
3. The Urge to Reverse Merge
SPACs are just getting started
The “blank check” acquisition funds known as special purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, have raised more than $30 billionso far this year, versus $13 billion in all of last year. Can they keep it up? DealBook spoke with some of the most plugged-in SPAC bankers and lawyers on Wall Street, and they cited three factors driving the boom
1. Valuations are soaring for popular SPAC targets
“The pipeline is heavily weighted to technology and growth companies,” said Niron Stabinsky, who leads SPAC deals at Credit Suisse. He said that he speaks to big venture firms “weekly” about their portfolios. Many have taken notice of recent success stories, like Virgin Galactic’s merger with a SPAC led by the former Facebook executive Chamath Palihapitiya. SPAC offerings will be “incredibly active post Labor Day,” said Paul Tropp, the co-head of Ropes & Gray’s capital markets group. That’s part of a “significant uptick” in listings expected to hit the market before election-related uncertainty sets in: Yesterday, the tech firms Asana, JFrog, Snowflake and Unity all filed to go public.
2. SPACs aren’t just an alternative to traditional I.P.O.s
“SPACs have become a new way of doing an M.&A. deal,” said Jeff Mortara, the head of equity capital markets origination at UBS. A merger with a SPAC allows the target company’s investors to retain a stake while gaining liquidity, and deal negotiations can be done directly, secretly and quickly. SPACs typically have two years from their I.P.O. date to complete a merger.
3. The flood of money to SPACs means better terms for targets
“Everything is negotiable,” the venture capitalist Bill Gurley wrote in a detailed case for SPACs on his blog this weekend. As competition between SPACs intensifies, “sponsors are continuing to negotiate deals that look better for the companies they buy,” he said in the essay, which quickly became the talk of Wall Street and Silicon Valley.
Why? Some SPAC sponsors are open to a smaller “promote” — the stake the sponsor gets essentially free after a merger. (Traditionally, a sponsor takes 20 percent.) SPACs also award warrants to the vehicle’s investors, which give them the right to buy larger stakes in the merged company at a discount; these are becoming less dilutive as sponsors shift their terms to be more favorable to the target company. In the life-sciences industry, where SPACs have “nearly replaced late-stage financing and I.P.O.s,” warrants have come down to zero in some deals, said Christian Nagler, a partner in the capital markets practice at the law firm Kirkland & Ellis.
The standard-bearer of a new approach for SPACs is the $4 billion fund sponsored by Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square, the largest to date. The fund’s warrants are structured in a way that encourages investors to stay invested longer in the merged company, and Pershing will take its “promote” only if the company it buys meets certain performance goals. Sponsors without Mr. Ackman’s reputation may find those terms hard to imitate, but some are adopting similar elements all the same, experts say.
What’s next? Mr. Gurley predicted that SPAC fund-raising this year could be four times higher than the previous record, set in 2019, implying another $20 billion or so to come. The buoyant markets are attracting figures not known for deal making to the space, like the former Congressman Paul Ryan and the baseball executive Billy Beane, which sows doubts among some about the durability of the boom. Just SPAC mergers involving electric car companies and auto technology firms — “deals on wheels,” as one analyst put it to The Times’s Neal E. Boudette and Kate Kelly — are already worth more than $10 billion.
____________________________
Today’s DealBook Briefing was written by Andrew Ross Sorkin in Connecticut, Lauren Hirsch in New York, and Michael J. de la Merced and Jason Karaian in London.
Editors’ Picks
4. Investors Dump ‘Dead Weight’ Cash-Like ETFs at Record Pace
Katherine Greifeld
Investors Dump ‘Dead Weight’ Cash-Like ETFs at Record Pace
(Bloomberg) — Investors are abandoning cash holdings at a record clip as momentum continues to build behind 2020’s risk rally.
Roughly $5.4 billion has exited from the $20 billion iShares Short Treasury Bond exchange-traded fund — the biggest ultra-short duration ETF — over 14 consecutive weeks of outflows. That was the longest streak on record for the product, whose ticker is SHV. Meanwhile, investors have pulled $2.4 billion from the $14 billion SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL) over 10 weeks, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data.
Investors accumulated record amounts of cash earlier this year amid concern over the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic on the global economy, with assets in money-market mutual funds soaring to a record $4.8 trillion in late May. Now, that cash is coming off the sidelines as stocks surge and corporate bonds look increasingly appealing. Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s commitment to keep interest rates at near-zero levels for the foreseeable future is further curbing appetite for short-duration Treasury ETFs.
“It’s recognition that ‘ZIRP’ will be around for a long time, combined with a rising risk appetite,” said Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab Corp.’s chief fixed-income strategist, referring to the concept of a zero interest-rate policy. “Short-term Treasury ETFs are looking less attractive than alternatives. Equities are benefiting. We also see interest in foreign equities and high-yield and emerging-market bonds.”
The S&P 500 has surged more than 55% from March’s bottom, notching a fifth straight month of gains in August. The Fed’s credit market backstop has boosted both investment-grade and junk bonds, with the largest high-yield debt ETF climbing nearly 24% since late March. The emerging-market outlook is also considerably brighter amid the dollar’s continued weakness and the Fed’s new average-inflation targeting regime.
The exodus from ultra-short duration ETFs is also likely due to investors trying to eliminate the “cash drag” in their portfolios by reinvesting in higher-yielding assets, according to Dan Suzuki at Richard Bernstein Advisors.
“Because they’re not generating any yield, they are acting as huge dead weight in many people’s portfolios,” said Suzuki, the firm’s deputy chief investment officer. “Investors are probably chasing higher returns, which means moving up the risk spectrum.”
(Updates prices in 5th paragraph.)
For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/relentless-risk-rally-spurs-record-155206736.html
5. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway reveals $6 billion investment in 5 Japanese giants
- Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a $6 billion bet on five of Japan’s biggest trading companies in a press release on Sunday night.
- The billionaire investor’s company revealed that it owns just over 5% of Mitsubishi, Mitsui, Itochu, Marubeni, and Sumitomo.
- “I am delighted to have Berkshire Hathaway participate in the future of Japan and the five companies we have chosen for investment,” Buffett said in the statement.
- Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.
Warren Buffett marked his 90th birthday on Sunday by revealing a $6 billion investment in five of Japan’s largest trading companies.
The famed investor’s Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate has built passive stakes of just over 5% in each of Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, and Sumitomo over the past 12 months, it said in a press release. Its National Indemnity subsidiary made the investments and will officially notify Japanese regulators of the positions when trading begins on Monday.
“I am delighted to have Berkshire Hathaway participate in the future of Japan and the five companies we have chosen for investment,” Buffett said in the press release.
“The five major trading companies have many joint ventures throughout the world and are likely to have more of these partnerships,” he continued. “I hope that in the future there may be opportunities of mutual benefit.”
Shares in Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, and Sumitomo all rose between 4% and 10% on Monday.
Buffett’s company highlighted its longstanding positions in Coca-Cola, American Express, and Moody’s in the statement, underscoring its intention to maintain the Japanese investments for the long term.
Berkshire has the option to boost its stakes as high as 9.9% in any of the five companies. Buffett pledged to seek approval from the relevant board of directors to raise it beyond that point.
Investing in Japanese companies is a departure from the norm for Berkshire, as it has historically favored American businesses such as Apple and Bank of America. However, it has made a few foreign bets on companies such as Brazilian payments group StoneCo.
6. QQQ vs. EFA (developed Europe) 5 Year Chart….U.S. Tech Sector Now Worth More Than Entire European Stock Market.
QQQ +179% vs. EFA +8%
The US tech sector is now worth more than the entire European stock market, Bank of America says
Henny Ray Abrams/AP Photo
- US tech stocks have overtaken the entire European stock market in market value as investors crowd into mega-caps to ride out the coronavirus pandemic.
- The tech sector is now worth $9.1 trillion, Bank of America said Thursday, while European stocks — including those in the UK and Switzerland — are worth a collective $8.9 trillion.
- The five largest US tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Facebook — are worth a collective $7.5 trillion and make up nearly 24% of the S&P 500.
- Amazon has jumped the most in 2020 so far, while Alphabet’s Class A shares have gained the least.
- Visit the Business Insider homepage for more stories.
US tech stocks surpassed the entire European stock market in market value after surging through the summer on outsize investor interest, Bank of America said in a note to clients.
The sector has notched several extraordinary superlatives through the coronavirus pandemic. Tech names fueled the US market’s rapid leap out of bearish territory and now host historically high investor crowding. Most recently, the group drove the S&P 500 to a record high, while the US remains deep in an economic slump and economists fear a double-dip recession.
Tech stocks’ market cap totaled $9.1 trillion as of Thursday, Bank of America said. That, for the first time, dwarfed the total value of all European stocks — including those listed in the UK and Switzerland — which stood at $8.9 trillion.
To emphasize the speed at which tech stocks have grown, the bank noted that Europe’s market cap in 2007 was roughly four times the size of the sector.
Much of that value is concentrated in the top five tech giants: Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Facebook. Together the companies make up nearly 24% of the S&P 500 and are worth roughly $7.5 trillion. Apple alone is valued at over $2 trillion.
Investors largely shifted capital into tech giants at the start of the pandemic, betting that the mega-caps’ cash piles and insulation from widespread lockdowns would outperform the market. Some strategists have deemed the names overcrowded, and others say they fear that antitrust measures could erode the companies’ success. But that hasn’t stopped the sector from continuing its run-up through the summer.
Of the five giants, Amazon has surged the most through the year. The stock is up roughly 85% in 2020, thriving on a surge of online retail activity as Americans stayed at home.
Alphabet’s Class A shares are up the least year-to-date compared with its mega-cap peers. Still, the shares have gained roughly 22% in 2020 and more than 7% over just the past month.
7. Dollar Breaking 200 Day Moving Average
A weak dollar is impacting an uneven global market recovery
Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
After sinking on Friday, the dollar is teetering near its lowest in more than two years, and threatening to decline even further after Fed chair Jerome Powell confirmed plans to let inflation run hot in the future, likely meaning 0% U.S. interest rates for quite some time.
Why it matters: For the U.S. currency to fall in value, other currencies must rise and that can be especially harmful to export-oriented economies like the eurozone and Japan, whose central banks may be forced to take action in the coming months.
What it means: A strong currency makes a country’s exports more expensive and therefore less attractive, denting a needed source of income, especially as the world tries to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.
- But with the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan both already holding negative interest rates and having significantly expanded their respective quantitative easing programs, weakening their currencies may require extreme measures.
The big picture: The U.S. has done a far worse job handling the coronavirus pandemic than most of Europe and Japan, but that has led to a weaker currency and a much stronger bounce in stock prices. The benchmark S&P 500 has gained 8.6% this year, with the Nasdaq up 30%.
- The currency appreciation is weighing on stock indexes in the eurozone and Japan, which have recovered much more slowly than U.S. equities this year.
- Germany’s DAX is up 5% for the year in dollar terms, but in euros the index remains 1.6% lower than where it began 2020, with similar outcomes for the Italian benchmark FTSE MiB (-10.5% YTD in dollars, -15.6% in euros) and France’s CAC 40 (-11.3% YTD in dollars, -16.3% in euros), per FactSet data.
- Japan’s Nikkei index is flat on the year in dollar terms, but about 3% lower in yen.
Where it stands: The euro has risen to $1.19 and is trading just below the two-year high it touched earlier in August, threatening to break back toward its early 2018 levels around $1.25, while the dollar has fallen to 105.30 yen, eyeing 100 yen per dollar.
- The Swiss franc, Swedish krona and Danish krone all have gained at least 6.5% versus the dollar this year.
Worth noting: Commodities, which are largely priced in dollars, also look poised to further benefit from the greenback’s slide. Gold and silver have had breakout years, each up more than 30% for the year, and other commodities are picking up — copper has risen 12% since July 1, and cocoa is up 23.6%.
8. Update on Restaurant Reservations
In the US, about 75% of the restaurants that took reservations before the pandemic are now taking reservations again, up from zero in April, according to data from OpenTable which provides online reservation services for 60,000 restaurants. Back on July 1, already 65% of the restaurants were taking reservations again, but then new outbreaks spreading across the country, particularly in the South, triggered some retrenching (chart via OpenTable):
The State of the American Restaurant, City by City–by Wolf Richter • Aug 29, 2020 • 108 Comments https://wolfstreet.com/2020/08/29/the-state-of-the-american-restaurants-city-by-city/
9. Follow Up From My Link Yesterday to Most Under 40’s Ever in U.S…..Population in U.S. Median Age is Trending Higher.
Thanks to Joe D at Philly Inquirer for Passing Along.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/241494/median-age-of-the-us-population/
10. Why Misinformation Goes Viral
Psychological factors affect the spread of misinformation during crises.
In the continued war on misinformation, LinkedIn and Facebook just removed millions of posts containing misinformation about the coronavirus. And it is believed that is but a fraction of the posts. When John Oliver tackled the flood of misinformation surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic, he mentioned the “proportionality bias” — that big events beg big explanations — to explain why misinformation, particularly conspiracy theories, have had a heyday with the current crisis. However, the science suggests that it is more than just the proportionality effect at play making this crisis exceptionally fertile grounds for seeds of misinformation.
Negativity Bias. For starters, our evolutionary heritage leads us generally to pay more attention to negative information than to positive information. This negativity bias was important to the survival of our species, as attending to the tiger prowling the encampment was more imperative than celebrating the latest birth. We see this reflected in our news which disproportionately features headlines about the latest travesty while feel-good stories are relegated to the back pages. And recent research has shown that this attention to negative news is evident at the physiological (and neurological) level across samples in 17 different countries.
Ultimately, this means that if something bad is happening, it’s got our attention. A once-a-century pandemic killing hundreds of thousands certainly qualifies. Thus, already, we are on the outlook for information. Further, evidence suggests that negative information is viewed as more credible than positive information. So not only are we paying attention but we are also primed to believe it.
Social Risk Amplification. This negativity bias gets a boost when information is shared. In a recent interview, it was said that the spread of misinformation is like a “screwed up game of telephone.” In fact, using these “diffusion chain experiments” is a common choice in experimental studies examining the transmission of information. In a 2015 study researchers had strings of 10 participants pass along information about the risks and benefits of a controversial drug (i.e., triclosan). Overall, all messages became shorter and increasingly inaccurate. However, by the end of the “diffusion chain” information about the benefits had been relatively lost whereas information about the risks continued to spread. Further, individual biases about risks led to the amplification of risks down the chain. A follow-up 2020 study showed that this amplification effect is even stronger when people are feeling stressed and unfortunately, new research shows that Americans are even more stressed about the coronavirus than other nations.
American Stress Levels Compared
Source: Reginald D. Williams II et al., Do Americans Face Greater Mental Health and Economic Consequences from COVID-19? Comparing the U.S. with Other High-Income Countries (Commonwealth Fund, August 2020).
Dread Risks. As if that weren’t enough to provide a megaphone for misinformation during stressful times, social risk amplification is even more likely when people are experiencing what are called dread risks, i.e., life-altering, disastrous, random, events that present a threat to mortality. In a 2018 study, researchers using an 8-person diffusion chain experiment paradigm randomly assigned groups to transmit low- or high-dread risk messages. As the message passed from person to person the high-dread chains became more and more negative in their transmission of the message relative to the low-dread chains, and those messages became more and more distorted. We saw a real-life example of this with the transmission of information about the Ebola outbreak in 2015 via Twitter and Facebook where the diffusion chains are no longer just 8 or 10 people long but spread across millions of users each with their own megaphones of various wattage.
Frustration with the Scientific Method. To further complicate matters, the current pandemic features a novel coronavirus. Meaning there wasn’t a wealth of accurate information from science at the outset of the outbreak because how could there be? It was new. Scientists are racing to find answers. Science, however, is constrained by the scientific method which is much slower than the pace at which fearful stressed citizens want information. It takes considerable time, customarily, to build a scientific consensus. Thus, in this race for information, science often lags behind misinformation because the Twitter user recommending alcohol to combat COVID-19 is not similarly constrained.
article continues after advertisement
This scientific method can further be frustrating to individuals when the process of replication and peer review kicks in and leads to the modification or retraction of findings. These updates are more likely to occur when there is a race for answers and thus usually meticulous methods are viewed as less important than expediency. When recommendations are altered based on new evidence, this is a sign that science is working. However, when sources who are supposed to “have the facts” change course, it can result in a tainted truth effect damaging trust in those sources. Meanwhile, our Facebook friends are not held to the same standard.
Fear and Shallow Processing. Consequently, the wrong information, if repeated and said with certainty, can be more persuasive than the latest science, especially when we don’t take the time to process messages (e.g., read beyond the headline). Shallow processing is even more likely on the internet, where information flies by at the speed of a scroll and among people who are afraid such that they are looking for any type of action to protect themselves.
Due to this perfect storm of contributing factors we are seeing the spread of misinformation take on pandemic proportions (now available in 25 languages). Scientists often feel like they are combating two viruses. As citizens wishing to avoid infection, we need to practice good information hygiene in addition to good personal hygiene—starting with recognizing some of the signs that something you encounter might be misinformation, just as you would be on high alert when you hear someone cough or sneeze. Further, engage in basic fact-checking. Be the investigator, find the source of the information, and weigh the evidence supporting their claims. If you don’t have the time to do the investigation, do not share. You could save a life by stopping the spread of misinformation.
Disclosure
Lansing Street Advisors is a registered investment adviser with the State of Pennsylvania..
To the extent that content includes references to securities, those references do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or hold such security as information is provided for educational purposes only. Articles should not be considered investment advice and the information contain within should not be relied upon in assessing whether or not to invest in any securities or asset classes mentioned. Articles have been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Securities discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Please keep in mind that a company’s past financial performance, including the performance of its share price, does not guarantee future results.
Material compiled by Lansing Street Advisors is based on publicly available data at the time of compilation. Lansing Street Advisors makes no warranties or representation of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to the use such data.
Material for market review represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results.
Indices that may be included herein are unmanaged indices and one cannot directly invest in an index. Index returns do not reflect the impact of any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. The index information included herein is for illustrative purposes only.
Topley’s Top 10 – August 31, 2020
Topley’s Top 10 – August 28, 2020
1. 1995-2016 Hedge Fund Managers Kept 64% of Profits.
Opinion: Hedge fund fees — whether or not you make money — are truly shocking
Hedge funds keep two-thirds of profits; investors get the rest
The professors analyzed a comprehensive hedge fund database containing nearly 6,000 funds over the 22 years from 1995 through 2016. Over that period these hedge funds collectively produced total gross profits of $316.8 billion. Of this total, fund managers kept $202 billion ($88.7 billion in management fees and $113.3 billion in performance incentive fees). The remainder—$113.3 billion, or 35.8% of total gross profits — went to investors. (See the chart below.)
The source of this skewed profit sharing is the asymmetry of hedge funds’ performance incentive fees. While the hedge fund industry receives a portion of investors’ gains, it does not to the same extent share in their losses.
It’s easy to overlook this asymmetry because it becomes evident only when focusing on the industry as a whole. At the individual fund level, incentive fees are only levied on performance that exceeds prior performance — exceeds previous high-water marks, in other words.
To illustrate how this performance incentive fee arrangement looks in practice, imagine the following two otherwise identical scenarios (setting aside management fees):
• You invest in a single hedge fund that in the first year gains 20%, gives up all that gain in the second year (a loss of 16.67%), and then gains 30% in the third year. You’d pay a performance incentive of 4% in the first year (20% of the 20% gain), nothing in the second year, and only 2% in the third year (2% of the amount by which that year’s gain exceeds that fund’s previous high-water mark). Glossing over several details, your total performance incentive fee for all three years would be 6% of assets under management.
• In the second scenario, imagine that you instead invest in three separate hedge funds with the same gains: The first gains 20%, the second loses 16.67%, and the third gains 30%. Because the losing hedge fund’s losses can’t be used to offset the other two funds’ gains, you will pay a performance incentive fee of 10% — four percentage points higher.
An extreme example of this occurred in 2008, during the Great Financial Crisis. Cumulatively that year, the professors report, the hedge funds in their database lost $147.1 billion before fees. Yet investors in those funds collectively paid $4.4 billion in performance incentive fees.
2. Call Options Betting on Higher Market Hit 1999 Levels
Options bets that the stock market will continue to soar have exploded to dot-com bubble levels
Even as the stock market trades in record-setting territory despite the economy being in the throes of a viral pandemic, Wall Street bets for further gains are around their highest levels since the dot-com bubble, according to research from Bespoke Investment Group.
Options bets that the S&P 500 SPX, +0.16% will extend its run-up in months to come have roughly doubled, far exceeding trading in securities that would be used to bet that a decline in stock values was imminent.
Call options give holders the right but not the obligation to buy a certain number of shares (100 per option contract) at a certain price (strike price) by a certain date (expiration date).
Calls are viewed as bullish bets on an asset, as opposed to put options, and Bespoke indicates that appetite for calls, particularly among individual investors, has boomed.
“Retail enthusiasm for the market via commission-free trading apps plus the huge volatility earlier this year have led to a massive boom in options volumes,” the analysts at BIG wrote. “Most of the increase in trading activity in these derivatives has gone to calls,” they wrote (see chart below).
BESPOKE INVESTMENT GROUP
3. Yield Spreads Vs. Treasury..Energy Sector Highest.
From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading
David Rosenberg: Why it’s time to buy energy stocks now that Exxon Mobil has been booted out of the Dow – “It’s a classic contrary signpost for the downtrodden oil and gas equity sector” – as we re-enter a period of ‘ZIRP’ (zero interest rate policy) from the U.S. Federal Reserve — with no intentions of raising rates, or thinking about thinking about raising rates (as Fed chairman Jerome Powell put it) — investors are yet again forced to identify where they can get an income stream. In the period following the Great Financial Crisis, the answer has been in the stock market with the dividend yield exceeding the yield on the 10-year Treasury note on multiple occasions.
From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading
4. Never Invest Based On GDP…
One of the Strongest Aug Ever in Stock Market…On Back of Worst Quarterly Global GDP in History
The Worst Quarter in Modern History
We have 2Q GDP from almost every major country around the world now officially in the books. Bank of America Merrill Lynch says it’s “the worst quarter in modern history” and there’s no reason not to agree with that assessment.
Here’s my Chart o’ the Day:
GDP is down a GDP-weighted average of 8.1% yoy, easily the worst quarter in modern history…The US is right in the middle of the pack—down 9.5% yoy—but this is because the US has offset its ineffective COVID containment strategy with massive fiscal and monetary stimulus.
Source:
“Its official: the worst quarter ever”
Bank of America Merrill Lynch – August 18th, 2020
From Josh Brown Blog
https://thereformedbroker.com/2020/08/20/the-worst-quarter-in-modern-history/
5. S&P 500 heads for best August since 1986 as stunning summer rally continues
PUBLISHED FRI, AUG 28 20206:19 AM EDT
Bob Pisani@BOBPISANI CNBC
A child wearing a face mask sits on the Charging Bull statue, also known as the Wall Street Bull, following the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in New York, August 19, 2020.
Carlo Allegri | Reuters
It’s been a great August, up 6% for the S&P 500, the best August since 1986.
But then again, it was a great July. And a great June. May was pretty good, too, and April was downright eye-popping.
The Summer Rally (S&P 500 Monthly Returns)
· April: up 12.7%
· May: up 4.5%
· June: up 1.8%
· July: up 5.5%
· August (so far): up 6.6%
Five straight up months. What’s going on?
“August is going to come out looking like capital markets are endorsing a US cyclical recovery,” Nicholas Colas from DataTrek told clients in a recent note.
Colas freely admits that August’s outside return has a big asterisk: Apple’s 18% run-up.
“This meaningfully skews everything from Tech sector returns to Growth/Value performance spreads and even the S&P 500′s August return,” he said, noting that without Apple, the S&P would only be up 4.1% on the month, not 6.8%.
Still, it sure looks like the market is endorsing an economic rebound. The small-cap Russell 2000 is also up about 6% for the month. High-yield corporate funds are outperforming all other bond market classes. If the trading community was worried about an imminent economic downturn, neither of those two sectors would be leading.
The market has held up on a combination of optimism on a treatment/vaccine, along with massive Fed stimulus.
There’s still optimism on the vaccine front, but now that the Fed has announced its program to keep rates lower for longer and tolerate higher inflation levels ahead of its much-anticipated September 16th meeting, many are arguing the rally based on a Fed “put” (a floor below the market) has gone about as far as it can go.
“The Fed easy money story now priced into the market,” Alec Young, Chief Investment Officer at Tactical Alpha LLC, told me. “It’s buy the rumor, sell the news.”
But even Young admits that may only suffice to pause, but not derail the rally. He also argues the market needs a pause in the relentless digital/work from home story: “It is not healthy to have the index dominated by a few technology stocks,” he said.
None of this means the market will drop, and there are still plenty of bulls who insist the market is going higher.
Jim Paulsen at Leuthold is one of them: he has been bullish and remains bullish, though he freely admits the market could see a 10% correction.
He also freely admits that tech stocks are extended, but insists the fundamentals for tech are rock solid and nothing like 2000. Extended, he insists, does not mean they are waiting for a crash.
And he strongly disagrees with the popular notion that Wall Street has become disconnected from Main Street.
“It’s not just about the Fed put. People think there is no legitimacy to the rally, and they’re wrong. Look at retail sales, or the ISM, or housing, or auto sales. Look at the improvement in unemployment claims. They’re all bouncing,” he said.
As for the narrow rally centered on tech, Paulsen believes the broader market is about to play catch-up.
How much? He said he would not be surprised if S&P corporate profits were $200 in 2021. The current consensus is $165.
Profits 25% higher than consensus for 2021? That would go a long way toward justifying the rally.
“We’ve had a 12% reduction in GDP, an all-time record,” he told me. “But we may have an 18% improvement in GDP in the next 12 months, and that also would be an all-time high. That is going to bring in the broader market along with it. You are going to have a major league shift in profitability into those cyclical names. When you thrust all those companies into a depression, and then you force them to get the most efficient they have ever been in their existence, and after all that, you give them a wartime boom? Profitability is going to be maximized.”
Leuthold has told his clients to stay long: “I am going to own new-era tech, but I am going to own less of it going forward, and I am going to own more of the broader market–cyclicals, international, and small caps.”
Subscribe to CNBC PRO for exclusive insights and analysis, and live business day programming from around the world.
6. Why The Fed Comments Yesterday?
Found at Nasdaq Dorsey Wright www.dorseywright.com
7. Ultraviolet Light Can Kill the Virus—and Help These Stocks Rebound
By Al Root
Text size
Barrons
Daniel Slim/AFP via Getty Images
Ultraviolet light is getting its moment in the sun. Companies are adopting the technology to take out the coronavirus and make travel and work safer, and shares of some businesses active in the area are getting a lift.
For starters, Boeing (ticker: BA) announced Monday it is testing UV disinfecting technology inside a 787 jet. The goal is to make aviation “safer and more sustainable,” according to the company’s news release.
“It’s literally a UV wand designed to clean the flight deck,” Kevin Callahan, associate technical fellow at Boeing Commercial Airplanes, explained to Barron’s. On the flight deck, where pilots control the plane, harsh cleaning chemicals aren’t a great idea given the electronics in the area.
Boeing’s wand is designed to clean the cockpit in about 15 minutes. “This [wand] is an industrial strength version of what people see in stores,” Callahan said. Investors—and U.S. consumers—might be familiar with the blue light wands sold at places such as CVS Health (CVS) stores as tools for smartphones or the like.
· iams-Sonoma Profit Doubled. The Stock Fell Anyway.UV light kills up to 99.9% of seasonal coronaviruses present in airborne droplets, according to a study by Columbia University. (For consumers looking for UV wands, the wavelength of light studied by Columbia is 222 nanometers long. It’s something to look for on UV wand packaging.)
The effectiveness of UV light makes some intuitive sense. UV light gives people sunburn, and in extreme cases, cancer. It can disrupt viruses’ DNA, rendering them effectively dead.
Carrier (CARR) is also expanding its air-quality game. Tuesday, the HVAC—short for heating, ventilation, and air conditioning—company said is selling 1,500 Carrier OptiClean air machines to California schools.
OptiClean are free-standing units that can be plugged into electrical outlets. “The ease-of-use and portability allows them to quickly and efficiently be deployed in a number of spatial configurations as the needs arise,” said Tyler Girtman, a regional manager at the building-solutions company Climatec, said in the Carrier news release.
Climatec worked with the schools buying the units on ways to ensure the health of students and staff as the academic year begins.
Top 5 uses for a UV lamp and ultraviolet light
The ultraviolet light is very useful. It has many applications in the commercial, industrial and healthcare sectors. Ultraviolet light is a kind of electromagnetic radiation. Its wavelength is close to that of X-rays and light.The LED technology is improving and so the UV LED lights are becoming more available in the market. The UV light has higher energy compared to the visible light and so it is more useful. Here we are going to discuss the various uses of UV lamps.
Tanning and skin treatment
UV light is used for tanning. It can be used to imitate the impact of sunlight on the skin. For indoor tanning, use of UV light is very common. In fact, many people prefer indoor tanning to sun tanning. The rays of the sun are not uniform, so it may cause sunburn at times. You also need to be under the sun for a longer period of time to get the tan. The indoor tanning, on the other hand, requires only about 20 minutes. Another disadvantage of sun tanning is that the sun contains both UVA and UVB beams. The UVA beams are responsible for the tanning, but the UVB beams are harmful as it might affect your DNA. The UV lamps used in salons for indoor tanning doesn’t contain any UVB beams. So, it is safer. Ultraviolet light is effective in treating smallpox lesions. UV phototherapy is effective in treating vitiligo and psoriasis. It can also prevent the growth of certain type of skin cancer.
Fluorescent inspection
UV lamps can be used to inspect various materials and surfaces. Materials react in different ways when they are exposed to the UV light. Some substances absorb the UV light’s energy and change it into visible light. It is called fluorescence. For example, the ink of a highlighter pen has fluorescent dye. So, the dye glows in the dark. UV lamps can provide efficient lighting in homes and offices. These lights are used to decorate nightclubs.The UV beams emit a black light. This black light is useful in many ways. It can be used to inspect splits, breaks, and various defects. You can view certain things using the UV light that are not visible to the naked eye. So, it is also used as an analytic tool. This light is used by the detectives and other companies for inspection of documents, forged bank notes, etc.
Disinfection and germ control
The ultraviolet light can inactivate the small creatures in the water. So, it is used for disinfecting drinking water. This process is absolutely chemical free and can effectively destroy bacteria that have a wavelength of 240 to 280 nanometers. The light destroys the bacteria’s capacity to reproduce. So, no more bacteria grows in the water. UV light is widely used in water treatment facilities. This method of treating water is a lot more efficient than boiling water. The UV light can also get rid of chlorine and chloramine from water. Another use of the UV lamp is that it used in killing germs that are found in equipment, utensils, worktops, etc. This technique of germ control is used in the commercial businesses as well. It helps to avoid cross contamination or food poisoning. The UV light can also be used to increase the shelf life of vegetables and fruits.
Air Cleaning and bug eradication
Mold growth inside the house can affect the indoor air quality. If you can install UV air purification unit in your air conditioner duct then the quality of air can be improved. The UV-C light, which is in the 280 to 100 nm range, is used for air purification. This UV light can kill mold, mildew, germs, viruses, and bacteria that float in the air. You can use an air purifier that has the UV-C light technology. In this type of air filter, air passes through a HEPA filter. Then it passes through a small chamber and gets exposed to the UV-C light. Sometimes, the air goes through another filter before getting inside the room. You should use 36-watt bulbs for this purpose. UV lamps are used for killing bugs in the house as well. It is used in the modern bug zappers and has proved to be very effective in killing bugs. The UV-A light, in the range 380 to 315 nm, attracts many bugs and insects like houseflies, wasps, mosquitoes, etc. Unlike the humans, these insects can actually see the ultraviolet light. When the bug zapper is on, the insects get attracted to UV light and go towards the mesh. They become electrocuted once they come into contact with the electric grids and gets vaporized. The bug zapper is a very popular means of killing bugs and insects today.
Indoor Gardening
UV lights are used in the production of polyphenols. It is a very beneficial plant and is said to prevent cancer. It can also make you look young. It can help in raisin production as well. It can also help in the production of medical cannabis. In fact, the UV light helps in improving the medicinal properties of cannabis.
The UV light is found in the sunlight. It has a shorter wavelength than the natural light. Due to research and innovation, the UV lamp can now be used in a number of different ways that are beneficial to people. It can help users in our daily lives. It has many commercial and industrial applications as well. It is used for treating water, purifying air, tanning, treating skin diseases, indoor gardening, eradicating bugs, identifying things, etc. In future, the scientists will be able to come up with more uses of UV lamps.
Hits: 7943
Spread the love
8. Three Smart Investments for Today
By John Maxwell | July 30, 2020 | 11
Photo by Waldemar Brandt on Unsplash
Earlier this week, a name from the past made headlines.
Eastman Kodak saw their stock price surge by 1,200% after it was announced that they would receive a $765 million loan under the Defense Production Act. The loan to Kodak is the first from the new U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, a government agency that’s been assigned the task of rebuilding America’s medical supply stockpile.
As a result of this first step, the company once known for producing the chemicals necessary for developing film will now be known for producing the chemicals necessary for developing needed medical drugs that are in short supply (including drugs for treating Covid-19).
I share this story with you because Kodak has been a go-to story within the business community for years. If you needed an example of a company that missed its window for innovation and growth, Kodak was one of the first to come to mind.
And now, thanks to this new investment, Kodak has a second life.
Kodak isn’t the only investment opportunity worth talking about during this Covid season. It’s going to sound familiar to anyone who’s listened to me over the past few months, but this is a perfect time for you to reassess and reinvest in yourself to ensure your future growth.
Just as Kodak will get new life from their cash infusion, you can get new life by investing in yourself during this time.
If you’re not sure where to start, let me give you three places you should invest:
Your Mind
It should come as no surprise that a lot of people have spent their time settled in front of a screen during this Covid season. TV watching is up, streaming hours are up, and there’s a good chance the screen time monitoring apps on most phones are exhausted from calculating the number of hours people are staring at their pocket screens.
While I’m not opposed to taking a mental break to watch something entertaining every now and then, staring at a screen all day isn’t ideal for your mind.
Last week, I wrote about the tools in your leadership toolbox, and most of the tools I wrote about were tools that build your mind; tools that help you improve and innovate your thinking. Spending time with a good book, a smart podcast, or even an online video course will help you sharpen your mind more than binge-watching “Friends” again ever will.
If you’re going to consume content, focus on content that makes you smarter.
Your Heart
There’s a piece of wisdom from the Bible that says, “Keep vigilant watch over your heart; that’s where life starts.” It’s easy for a heart to be discouraged during times like these; most of the news we see, hear, and read does little to offer us hope for the future. Social media is full of personal attacks and disagreement. And even the closest of families are experiencing struggles after months of being together at home with little outside social contact.
That’s why you need to invest in your heart. Take breaks to spend time alone with your thoughts so you can examine them. If they’re overly negative, you need to change them because negative thinking will turn your heart in a negative direction. I spend time in prayer and reading my Bible as a way of investing in my heart, but you need to find a practice that works for you. Maybe you can start a gratitude journal, or spend time daily repeating your personal values to yourself as a reminder of what you stand for.
Regardless of the practice, make time for feeding your heart because that’s the essence of who you really are.
Your Relationships
I’ve already mentioned the strain that Covid has put on some family dynamics, so it shouldn’t surprise you that the last place you should invest is in your relationships. True, you may not see as many people as you’re accustomed to seeing, but that doesn’t mean you can’t invest in those relationships.
Set aside time to handwrite notes to people you’ve not seen in a while and let them know that you’re thinking about them. Use your phone to send a co-worker a text of encouragement—or better yet, actually call someone and talk to them! Set up a Zoom call with your grandkids or your softball team just to see what they’re up to.
Here’s what I know: while it may take until 2021 for things like work, the economy, and community life to return to a state of normal, relationships can’t wait that long. The people you know and love need your investment today, and it’s well worth your time and energy.
You’ll have to invest in those relationships once things get back to normal anyway; might as well get a jump start on the process so you can move further faster when the opportunity is right.
The past few months have been difficult, and the months ahead may prove to be just as challenging, if not more so. Investing wisely in your mind, heart and relationships will ensure a smoother journey for you and the people you care about.
Your brilliant future begins today—lead the way for others by investing well in the areas that matter most.
https://www.johnmaxwell.com/blog/three-smart-investments-for-today/
Disclosure
Lansing Street Advisors is a registered investment adviser with the State of Pennsylvania..
To the extent that content includes references to securities, those references do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or hold such security as information is provided for educational purposes only. Articles should not be considered investment advice and the information contain within should not be relied upon in assessing whether or not to invest in any securities or asset classes mentioned. Articles have been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Securities discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Please keep in mind that a company’s past financial performance, including the performance of its share price, does not guarantee future results.
Material compiled by Lansing Street Advisors is based on publicly available data at the time of compilation. Lansing Street Advisors makes no warranties or representation of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to the use such data.
Material for market review represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results.
Indices that may be included herein are unmanaged indices and one cannot directly invest in an index. Index returns do not reflect the impact of any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. The index information included herein is for illustrative purposes only.
Topley’s Top 10 – August 26, 2020
Topley’s Top 10 – August 27, 2020
1. Recent History of Incoming and Outgoing Dow Constituents
The graph below shows the performance of the Dow index, an equal-weight portfolio of the three stocks coming into the index, and an equal-weight portfolio of the three stocks going out of the index. For the past three years, the outgoing members shown in black have hugely underperformed the incoming members indicated by the blue line.
2-3. This Bull Market is the Longest But Still Not Strongest…..1990’s Internet Bubble Ending Was Strongest.
Which Bull Will It Be?
Posted by lplresearch
Market Blog
The incredible rally off the March 23 bear market bottom continues, with the S&P 500 Index up more than 50% from those fateful lows. It feels like a lifetime since the longest bull market ever ended. Remember though, although the recent bull market was the longest, it wasn’t the greatest, as the 1990s bull gained more on a percentage basis.
We discussed in detail what the new highs in the S&P 500 meant here, so we won’t dive into that again. But this time we’ll show just how this rally ranks versus others that ended major bear markets. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, this new bull market, up to this point of about five months, is stronger than any other major bull market’s start going back to World War II.
“Yes, this new bull market is the strongest bull market we’ve ever seen after five months,” explained LPL Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But that shouldn’t be a source of worry. The previous two strongest rallies up to this point were in 1982 and 2009, and both saw continued strength during the first year of the new bull market.”
Here is a chart showing just this bull market and the ’82 and ’09 bull markets.
https://lplresearch.com/2020/08/26/which-bull-will-it-be/
4. Corporate Defaults Have Tripled
Capital Group Blog
- Corporate defaults have jumped, but the default rate has been low for a very long time
- The market for lower rated companies is much less efficient, so there’s more opportunity to differentiate and find value
- Especially over the long term, returns on high-yield bonds (BB/Ba and lower) can provide investors who are willing to take a little higher risk of loss a significant income boost
https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/corporate-defaults-triple.html
5. Warren Buffett: The Best Way to Learn About Business
Buffett’s comments from 1998 about business schools
August 21, 2020 | About: BRK.A +0.37% BRK.B +0.35%
Over the years, Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio) has criticized business schools for the way they teach students. Buffett has disagreed with business schools’ views on the cost of capital and efficient market theory, to name just two points. He’s also attacked the way business schools teach students about business valuation.
Buffett was taught how to value companies by the dean of value investing, Benjamin Graham. Over the years, he’s developed and refined the strategy, building his own views into Graham’s fundamental base.
The Oracle of Omaha has never laid out the exact process he uses to value businesses, and that may be because there isn’t one. He has so much experience evaluating companies, he knows what to look for and what to avoid without consulting a guide.
The best way to learn
Buffett has made some comments in the past about the best way to learn company valuation. Indeed, at the 1998 Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B) annual meeting of investors, he proclaimed that if he were to run a business school, Buffett would get students to study business after business, rather than focusing on other topics. Here’s what he said at the time:
“I were teaching a course on investments, there would be simply one valuation study after another with the students, trying to identify the key variables in that particular business, and evaluating how predictable they were first, because that is the first step.”
The aim of this process, he explained, would be to get students to recognize essential qualities to help them find a handful of successful investments:
“If something is not very predictable, forget it. You know, you don’t have to be right about every company. You have to make a few good decisions in your lifetime. But then when you find the important thing is to know when you find one where you really do know the key variables which ones are important and you do think you’ve got a fix on them. Where we’ve been where we’ve done well, Charlie and I made a dozen or so very big decisions relative to net worth, but not as big as they should have been. And we’ve known we were right on those going in. I mean they just weren’t that complicated. And we knew we were focusing on the right variables and they were dominant. And we knew that even though we couldn’t take it out to five decimal places or anything like that, we knew that in a general way we were right about them. And that’s what we look for. The fat pitch. And that’s what I would be teaching trying to teach students to do. And I would not try to teach them to think they could do the impossible.”
Buffett has issued similar advice many times in his career. Finding good investments isn’t an exact science; it is an art. The only way to get good at this art, like any other creative business, is practice. There’s no short cut to this process; that’s why good investing isn’t easy. It requires years of experience and learning.
Buffett has been studying businesses for decades, so he knows what makes a good company and what does not. He’s built the experience through thousands of hours of investment research and study.
He has a general interest in business as well, which gives him a bit of an advantage as he’s always interested in learning more about companies and sectors. This has to be one of the Oracle’s top advantages compared to the rest of the investment sector.
Buffett is always learning and improving. There’s no short-cut to this process. Investors have to want to do the work to get ahead.
Disclosure: The author owns shares in Berkshire Hathaway.
https://www.gurufocus.com/news/12153
6. Covid Year to Date vs. WW II
Covid-19 Has Now Cost Us Nearly as Much as WWIIBut instead of spending trillions fighting the enemy, we’re making sure the Nasdaq doesn’t decline
https://marker.medium.com/covid-19-has-now-cost-us-nearly-as-much-as-wwii-925bb98c9447
7. In Shadow of Pandemic, U.S. Drug Overdose Deaths Resurge to Record-NYT
By Josh Katz, Abby Goodnough and Margot Sanger-KatzJuly 15, 2020
Drug deaths in America, which fell for the first time in 25 years in 2018, rose to record numbers in 2019 and are continuing to climb, a resurgence that is being complicated and perhaps worsened by the coronavirus pandemic.
Nearly 72,000 Americans died from drug overdoses last year, according to preliminary data released Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — an increase of 5 percent from 2018. Deaths from drug overdoses remain higher than the peak yearly death totals ever recorded for car accidents, guns or AIDS, and their acceleration in recent years has pushed down overall life expectancy in the United States.
Found at Morning Brew https://www.morningbrew.com/?utm_expid=.ZTQPzZIzTFOdxoi4D0Ey0Q.0&utm_referrer=
8. One In Five Adults Get Their Political Views Primarily Thru Social Media
Americans Who Mainly Get Their News on Social Media Are Less Engaged, Less Knowledgeable
Those who rely on social media for news are less likely to get the facts right about the coronavirus and politics and more likely to hear some unproven claims
BY AMY MITCHELL, MARK JURKOWITZ, J. BAXTER OLIPHANT AND ELISA SHEARER
9. 55% OF PROFESSIONALS MISS THE PHYSICAL OFFICE
Aug 21, 2020, 4:50 pm
Do you miss going into a physical office? As it turns out, more than ½ of professionals do.Professionals Miss Going To A Physical Office
Here are some key learnings (08/20-08/21)
1. 55% of surveyed professionals miss going into a physical office
o 70% of Google professionals miss going into a physical office, compared to 31% of Salesforce professionals
2. 42% of surveyed professionals state that compared to an in office setting, their stress levels during WFH are overall higher
o . 59% of Google professionals say their stress levels during WFH are overall higher
o 40% of Facebook professionals say their stress during WFH are overall higher
3. 29% of surveyed professionals state that compared to an in office setting, their productivity levels during WFH are overall lower
o . 52% of Apple professionals state that compared to an in office setting, their productivity levels during WFH are overall lower
o 46% of Facebook professionals state that compared to an in office setting, their productivity levels during WFH are overall lower
Look at the raw data:
One Amazon user writes: “Folks working at companies with a ton of in office benefits (Google, FB) – do you miss the free food and everything while wfh? Have your companies offered to compensate in some other way? All put together, those benefits probably had a modest dollar amount associated with them.”
Q1 Comparison
|
Do you miss going into a physical office? |
Yes |
No |
Grand Total |
|
622 |
502 |
1124 |
|
|
55% |
45% |
100% |
|
Do you miss going into a physical office? |
Yes |
No |
Grand Total |
|
Microsoft |
58% |
42% |
106 |
|
Amazon |
53% |
47% |
94 |
|
|
70% |
30% |
50 |
|
|
72% |
28% |
29 |
|
Apple |
56% |
44% |
27 |
|
Oracle |
72% |
28% |
25 |
|
Cisco |
71% |
29% |
24 |
|
Intel Corporation |
43% |
57% |
23 |
|
|
62% |
38% |
21 |
|
Uber |
60% |
40% |
20 |
|
VMware |
47% |
53% |
17 |
|
Salesforce |
31% |
69% |
16 |
|
Adobe |
50% |
50% |
16 |
|
Lyft |
81% |
19% |
16 |
|
Walmart |
57% |
43% |
14 |
|
Capital One |
64% |
36% |
11 |
|
Intuit |
40% |
60% |
10 |
Q2 Comparison
|
Compared to an in office setting, your stress levels during WFH are: |
Overall higher |
The same |
Overall lower |
Grand Total |
|
424 |
302 |
273 |
999 |
|
|
42% |
30% |
27% |
100% |
|
Compared to an in office setting, your stress levels during WFH are: |
Overall higher |
The same |
Overall lower |
Grand Total |
|
Microsoft |
47% |
30% |
23% |
92 |
|
Amazon |
43% |
30% |
28% |
87 |
|
|
59% |
27% |
15% |
41 |
|
|
40% |
40% |
20% |
25 |
|
Oracle |
42% |
42% |
17% |
24 |
|
Apple |
26% |
35% |
39% |
23 |
|
Cisco |
65% |
30% |
5% |
20 |
|
|
63% |
21% |
16% |
19 |
|
Intel Corporation |
32% |
32% |
37% |
19 |
|
Uber |
44% |
22% |
33% |
18 |
|
Lyft |
38% |
38% |
25% |
16 |
|
VMware |
50% |
21% |
29% |
14 |
|
Walmart |
25% |
17% |
58% |
12 |
|
Salesforce |
25% |
50% |
25% |
12 |
|
Adobe |
45% |
45% |
9% |
11 |
Q3 Comparison
|
Compared to an in office setting, your productivity levels during WFH are: |
Overall higher |
The same |
Overall lower |
Grand Total |
|
335 |
361 |
281 |
977 |
|
|
34% |
37% |
29% |
100% |
|
Compared to an in office setting, your productivity levels during WFH are: |
Overall higher |
The same |
Overall lower |
Grand Total |
|
Microsoft |
31% |
35% |
34% |
89 |
|
Amazon |
39% |
33% |
28% |
85 |
|
|
32% |
22% |
46% |
41 |
|
|
28% |
20% |
52% |
25 |
|
Apple |
35% |
48% |
17% |
23 |
|
Oracle |
26% |
39% |
35% |
23 |
|
Cisco |
38% |
48% |
14% |
21 |
|
|
37% |
26% |
37% |
19 |
|
Intel Corporation |
42% |
32% |
26% |
19 |
|
Uber |
41% |
35% |
24% |
17 |
|
Lyft |
44% |
38% |
19% |
16 |
|
VMware |
46% |
38% |
15% |
13 |
|
Salesforce |
42% |
33% |
25% |
12 |
|
Walmart |
42% |
33% |
25% |
12 |
|
Adobe |
45% |
27% |
27% |
11 |
https://www.valuewalk.com/2020/08/professionals-miss-physical-office/
10. How to Nail Your Goals with This Simple Secret
4 Keys to Accomplish the Goals You Keep Missingby Megan Hyatt Miller
This is a guest post by Megan Hyatt Miller. Megan is the Chief Operating Officer of Michael Hyatt & Co. She is also Michael’s oldest daughter. Megan, her husband Joel, and their four children make their home in Franklin, Tennessee.
Most of us start pursuing our goals with great focus and intensity, but roadblocks inevitably surface before we’re far down the road. We might be tempted to quit, or simply redouble our efforts in an effort to scale the obstacle, but the secret may be tossing our strategy out the window and trying an alternate approach.
I’ve been steadily working to reclaim my fitness, working out with a trainer consistently for several months, doing cardio on my off days, and dialing in my nutrition. In fact, it felt so good to feel strong again, that I pushed it a little harder than I should have.
Just as all my hard work started to pay off, I noticed a pain developing in my foot. I tried to ignore it for several weeks, but eventually I gave in and went to the doctor, only to discover I had a stress fracture in my fourth metatarsal. As I walked out of the doctor hobbling in my boot, I felt angry, defeated, and ready to quit. But I didn’t.
Instead, I went to a local gym, signed up, and started using equipment that would keep me active while letting my foot rest. It’s an example of a simple but powerful secret: The way to achieve our goals is to hold them tightly and our strategies loosely.
A Goal Setting Super Power
I used to feel like a failure when I would change strategy to accomplish my goals. I worried I might lack commitment, or just be a bad planner. After all, if I were better at setting goals, wouldn’t I have nailed the strategy the first time? But over the years I’ve realized my ability to zig and zag with strategy is not a mark of failure, but instead a goal setting super power.
This year, I’ve already changed strategy multiple times in three major areas—and those are the areas where I’m making the most progress. Whether it’s my health and fitness goals, Michael Hyatt & Co. growth targets, or my children, I rarely achieve anything significant that doesn’t require at least a handful of significant strategy changes.
Why? Because we only have limited visibility when we set our goals. Think about it: How could you possibly plan for all the contingencies that will happen in a 365-day period on January 1 (or whenever you set your annual goals)? I haven’t had a year yet where unforeseen obstacles, challenges, and opportunities presented themselves in a constant parade.
What Helmuth von Moltke said about war applies perfectly to reaching our goals:
[N]o plan of operations extends with any certainty beyond the first contact with the main hostile force. . . . [T]he commander in chief will always keep his main objective in mind and will not be swayed by the changeability of events. Nevertheless, the way in which he hopes to attain that objective cannot be laid out in advance with any degree of certainty.
Instead, von Moltke said commanders will keep their objectives in view but use their judgment to react in the moment.
4 Keys to Cultivate Your Super Power
Before I make it sound like this kind of magical flexibility comes naturally to me, I have to confess I am not naturally flexible at all. Just ask my husband and kids. In fact, on the StrengthsFinder test of 34 strengths, my lowest scoring strength is Adaptability. I’m basically a life-long underachiever in the flexibility department. That’s good news, because this is less of a natural aptitude and more of a skill that anyone can cultivate.
If, like me, you can’t rely on your natural ability to excel at flexibility, here are 4 keys to help you cultivate this in yourself.
1. There are no sacred cows. Your goals may be sacred, but your strategy sure isn’t. All that matters is whether or not it works. If the answer is no, you should feel free—compelled, even—to chuck it out the window and try something else.
2. A plan is still important. You might be tempted to think creating a game plan to accomplish your goals is a waste of time. Far from it. After all, having a plan is what gets us in motion, moving toward our goals. Without it, we would likely never get out of the gate. Just remember to hold it loosely as obstacles arise.
3. Possibility thinking is the secret sauce. Shifting gears from one strategy to the next presumes that you believe a better strategy exists, even if you don’t know what it is yet. This is part of what helps you hold your plans loosely. Focus on staying out of a place of scarcity, and in a place of abundance that says, “My best thinking, and my best strategies have yet to be discovered. There are always more ways to get there than I can see right now.”
4. Show your work. If you’re leading a team, this is a critical final step. You must explain your rationale for changing strategy to your team, and you must enroll them in your vision. This sets your team up for alignment with you, and the willingness to follow where you lead, even if it’s disruptive in the short term. As a leader, you must also be intentional about building a culture where flexibility, change, and risk taking are affirmed, so when you display these traits, they are seen as positive, not negative.
I take my goals very seriously. Too seriously to think my strategies are sacred. Think of it like driving to an important event. Maybe the road you initially chose was the quickest way—until an accident ground everything to a stop. If you can turn off the road and find a better route, do you take it or just creep along and miss your meeting?
The way to achieve our goals is to hold them tightly and our strategies loosely.Megan Hyatt Miller
The key to developing your own goal setting super power is to develop your tolerance for “changing your route” as often as you need to get to your goal.
Question: What route adjustments (or changes in strategy) do you need to make, today, to accomplish your goals? Share your answer on Facebook, Twitter, or LinkedIn.
https://michaelhyatt.com/nail-your-goals/
Disclosure
Lansing Street Advisors is a registered investment adviser with the State of Pennsylvania..
To the extent that content includes references to securities, those references do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or hold such security as information is provided for educational purposes only. Articles should not be considered investment advice and the information contain within should not be relied upon in assessing whether or not to invest in any securities or asset classes mentioned. Articles have been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Securities discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Please keep in mind that a company’s past financial performance, including the performance of its share price, does not guarantee future results.
Material compiled by Lansing Street Advisors is based on publicly available data at the time of compilation. Lansing Street Advisors makes no warranties or representation of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to the use such data.
Material for market review represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results.
Indices that may be included herein are unmanaged indices and one cannot directly invest in an index. Index returns do not reflect the impact of any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. The index information included herein is for illustrative purposes only.