Category Archives: Daily Top Ten

Topley’s Top 10 – January 10, 2023

1. S&P Dividend Yield vs. Treasuries 2022

Bespoke Investment Group Blog Two years ago at the end of 2020, the S&P’s dividend yield was higher than the entire Treasury curve except for the 30-year. Fast forward to now and the S&P’s dividend looks puny compared to 4%+ yields on T-Bills.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/research/think-big-blog/


2. One Bullish Factor for Markets…Sentiment at Extreme Bearishness.

From Dave Lutz Jones Trading Reminder from Last Week, BofA notes the extreme bearish sentiment of Analysts is very bullish for Stocks.


3. Consumer Confidence at Historic Lows

https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/mi-guide-to-the-markets-us.pdf\


4. And Presidential Cycle Seasonality Positive.

Presidential Cycle Present?  We know seasonality works different in bear markets vs all markets, but still a very interesting chart considering where sentiment is.


5. Jeremy Siegel Wisdom Tree “Inflation Basically Dead”…I  Agree.

The broad U6 measure of unemployment dropped to an all-time low in the nearly 30-year history of the series. The labor force participate rate increased, bringing some workers off the sidelines and that also is positive for wage gain moderation.

The bottom line of all this price and inflation data: all measures are very encouraging and inflation is basically dead in my view. Commodities and natural gas prices in particular, have just plummeted with warmer weather. Gas prices are way off their highs.

What does this mean for the Fed? There is widespread expectation of a 25-basis point hike at the February 1st meeting. I reiterate I don’t think the Fed should do this hike, as the cumulative tightening is enough. But if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports come in as I expect and softer, there is a chance the February hike is the last of this cycle.

Weekly Siegel Commentary – Weekly Siegel Commentary (wisdomtree.com

US U-6 Unemployment Rate U-6 Unemployment Level

Measures the percentage of the U.S. labor force that is unemployed, plus those who are underemployed, marginally attached to the workforce, and have given up looking for work.
6.40% for Dec 2022


6. Credit Boom…$1.2Trillion in Loans Made 2022

JOSEPH WANG  FED GUY

https://fedguy.com/credit-boom/


7. CNBC REAL ESTATE-Consumer confidence in housing finally rises, thanks to falling home prices

Diana Olick@IN/DIANAOLICK@DIANAOLICKCNBC@DIANAOLICK
KEY POINTS

A monthly housing sentiment index from Fannie Mae showed sentiment improving from November to December.

The share of respondents saying now is a good time to buy a home was still low, at just 21%, but it was up from 16% in October and November.

More consumers now believe home prices will fall in the next 12 months, and more also said they believe mortgage rates will come down.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/09/consumer-confidence-in-housing-rises-as-prices-fall.html

https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/surveys-indices/national-housing-survey


8. Good News…U.S. Patents Being Granted at Record Rates

Yesterday was the final day of the Consumer Electronics Show (CES), the world’s largest tech trade show, which has been offering a glimpse into the future of consumer tech for more than 50 years. This year’s show, attended by roughly 100,000 tech enthusiasts, included color-changing cars, urine-scanning devices and an oven that prevents burnt food.

The innovation acceleration…

Many of the innovative technologies displayed at CES are likely covered by a patent — and digging through patent filings is a good way of picking up on future tech trends. Filings mentioning “metaverse”, for example, have risen significantly, as have those mentioning “foldable technology”, “electric vehicles” and “sustainable technology”.The total number of patents filed in the US has also risen, with record numbers being granted in recent years. That trend has also been reflected globally, with 2021 setting a new global record number of IP filings for patents, trademarks and designs to protect innovations — with Asia filing 64% of the 1.7 million patents filed worldwide.

… or just a paperwork pile-up?Preparing a patent submission usually requires lawyers or experts, and total costs can routinely run into the many thousands for complex ideas or submissions. That is why tech giants, who can monetize their intellectual property more efficiently than individual inventors, always top the patent tables.

Interestingly, IBM — which topped the patent league tables for 29 years in a row before losing its crown to Samsung — has just switched tack. The company dropped its patent count by 44% last year in a bid to free up resources from the time-consuming patent process.

www.chartr.com


9. Rolls-Royce heralds ‘momentous year’ as car sales exceed 6,000 for first time

Yahoo Finance Neil Lancefield, PA Transport Correspondent

Mon, 9 January 2023 at 8:06 am GMT-5·2-min read

Rolls-Royce Motor Cars has exceeded annual sales of more than 6,000 cars for the first time in its 118-year history, the company announced.

It said it achieved “particularly strong year-on-year growth” during 2022 in the Middle East, Asia-Pacific, the USA and Europe.

A “single-digit” drop in sales was recorded in Greater China – which includes mainland China and areas such as Hong Kong – due to “ongoing headwinds” but this was “successfully counterbalanced by increased sales in other markets”, according to the car maker.

– ADVERTISEMENT –

Some 6,021 cars were delivered to customers last year, a rise of 8% compared with 2021.

The value of bespoke commissions also reached record levels in 2022, with clients “willing to pay around half a million euros (£440,000) for their unique Rolls-Royce motor car”, according to the BMW-owned company.

Demand for all models “remains exceptionally strong” with advance orders “secured far into 2023”, it added.

Rolls-Royce Motor Cars chief executive Torsten Muller-Otvos described 2022 as a “momentous year” for the company, which is based in Goodwood, West Sussex.

He said: “Not only did we reveal Rolls-Royce Spectre, our marque’s first ever fully-electric series model to the world, it was also the first year we ever delivered more than 6,000 cars in a single 12-month period, with strong demand across our entire product portfolio.

“But as a true house of luxury, sales are not our sole measure of success: we are not and never will be a volume manufacturer.

“Bespoke is Rolls-Royce, and commissions were also at record levels last year, with our clients’ requests becoming ever more imaginative and technically demanding – a challenge we enthusiastically embrace.”

He added: “This success has not been achieved overnight.

“In 2023, we mark the 20th anniversary of the home of Rolls-Royce at Goodwood, during which time we’ve transformed our business through a long-term strategy based on continuous and sustainable growth, careful management and planning, an unwavering focus on profit and a respectful but forward-thinking reinvention of the Rolls-Royce brand.”

More than 150 jobs were created at the company’s headquarters in 2022, taking the site’s total workforce to 2,500.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/royce-royce-heralds-momentous-car-093000116.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZHJ1ZGdlcmVwb3J0LmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAABaxgD3vkantSTwAN56dkGoK5Rw4d0avaQdTYY4dZpKMm37KUbi7qfWvfEPXfGUTvf3kHVb0bG-6PfoWwUl51m1W7S20zZHY2xyE8ppACsZJCnzORY_snAgRU7ShuWE9bKufrCJiWpaLAvDlqxJp0gVoos2gM_BiDcIqGIGQU0yw


10. A New Study Shows Improved Health and Increased Longevity Come Down to the Rule of 72-104

Want to live a longer, healthier life? How much water you drink can be a major factor. 

BY JEFF HADEN, CONTRIBUTING EDITOR, INC.@JEFF_HADEN

What do you and ice cream have in common? You’re both about 60 percent water. 

What you don’t have in common — assuming ice cream doesn’t lounge around thinking deep thoughts — is the effect water has on your mental abilitiesStudies show you need be only 1 percent dehydrated to experience a 5 percent decrease in cognitive function, and a 2 percent decrease in brain hydration can result in short-term memory loss. 

And then there’s this: A National Institutes of Health study just published in eBioMedicine found that not drinking enough water is also associated with a significantly higher risk of developing chronic diseases, a higher risk of dying early, and a higher risk of being biologically older than your chronological age. 

What you also don’t have in common with ice cream is that longevity matters. (Since ice cream is my healthy-diet Achilles’ heel, it has an extremely short life span in my house.) 

Obviously, we all want to live long, healthy lives. But longevity is also an important factor in success. The longer you live, the more likely you are to be able to start a thriving business.

The longer you live, the more you can leverage the power of time. As Morgan Housel writes in The Psychology of Money, “Effectively all of Warren Buffett’s financial success can be tied to the financial base he built in his pubescent years and the longevity he maintained in his geriatric years. His skill is investing, but his secret is time.”

So yeah: Drinking enough water matters. 

How Much Water Should You Drink?

First a little background. Serum sodium levels in your blood increase when you drink less fluids. 

When the researchers analyzed data collected over a 30-year period, they found that: 

People with serum sodium at the higher end of the normal range had worse health outcomes than those at the lower end of normal.

People with high levels of serum sodium had a 15 percent higher chance of being biologically older than their chronological age, and a 64 percent higher risk of developing chronic diseases like heart failure, stroke, chronic lung disease, diabetes, and dementia.

People with extremely high levels of serum sodium had a 50 percent higher risk of being biologically older and a 21 percent higher risk of dying early. 

The tricky part, of course, is knowing your serum sodium levels. But since serum sodium levels are typically a lagging indicator of fluid consumption, drinking enough water should, for most people, be sufficient.

According to the National Academy of Medicine, women should drink about 72 ounces of water per day, men 104. (The actual fluid intake amount needed is higher, but we also get liquid from water-heavy foods like fruits, vegetables, and, um, ice cream.) You might need more, depending on your level of physical activity, but that’s a good place to start.

Since keeping track is a pain — and because we all tend to overestimate the “good” things we do and underestimate the “bad” — the key is to follow a few simple rules. 

For example:

Drink an eight-ounce glass of water before every meal. If you’re trying to lose weight, that’s a great double dip, since you’ll partly fill your stomach and feel full faster. Three meals? Twenty-four ounces.

Use a water bottle to keep track. Mine holds 32 ounces. I put a piece of tape on the cap and mark off how many times I empty it. Drinking two bottles puts you over or close to the target, respective to gender, and three well above. I usually drink four in a day, so I’m more than good to go (frequent bathroom visits pun intended). 

Easy. And effective.

Also keep in mind that other liquids count. If you drink a bottle of diet soda a day, that counts. Coffee counts. Tea counts.

Yeah, you could get all technical and say caffeine is a diuretic and liquids with caffeine shouldn’t count towards your target, but then again, research shows caffeine doesn’t appear to increase the risk of dehydration

So keep it simple. As with most things in life, success is based on doing the right things most of the time. You don’t have to be perfect. Didn’t drink enough fluids today? 

No problem. Get back on track tomorrow. 

The key is to focus on doing more of what is good for you, and do it more often. That approach is not only good for improving your health and longevity, but for achieving anything worthwhile.

Because we are what we are, but with consistent effort over a period of time, we can become what we hope to become.

Including a lot healthier, over a lot longer lifespan.

https://www.inc.com/jeff-haden/a-new-study-shows-improved-health-increased-longevity-comes-down-to-rule-of-72-104.html?utm_source=newsletters&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=INC%20-%20This%20Morning%20Newsletter.Newsletter%20-%20Inc%20-%20This%20Morning%201-9-23&leadId=1548979&mkt_tok=NjEwLUxFRS04NzIAAAGJNYVV–c63qBlbHUVjStpSnENYk4h88Lk_30LLUBcZi34lky88nHFfby0aZqbbK5wX1MS9ZhAQzO0Vlot30UfkkLP5rB1oMqRq5NnSM_t

Topley’s Top 10 – January 9, 2023

1. Microsoft Sitting on 200 Week Moving Average


2. Global Rate Rise…German 10 Year…Negative -50 Basis Points to 2.31%


3. Bitcoin Cash to U.S. Dollar Chart….$1700 to $99.


4. Housing Bear?….Lennar Homebuilder 52 Week High

www.stockcharts.com


5. Toyota and Tesla Charts Getting Closer

Chart of the Day

Tesla’s ($TSLA) share-price losses seem both ‘useful and rational.’ (chart via @ycharts)

(morningstar.com)  Found at Abnormal Returns Blog www.abnormalreturns.com


6. Big Tech Close to Double the Amount of Employees vs. 2019

Barrons By Tae Kim  https://www.barrons.com/articles/tech-stocks-employees-layoffs-consumer-demand-51673021476?mod=past_editions


7. Electric Vehicle Backlog

@MichaelAArouet

https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet


8. 71% of Americans Approve of Unions But Only 6% of Private Sector Employees Unionized.

This week, Microsoft recognized the company’s first ever labor union, formed of 300 employees in their videogame unit, ZeniMax. The tech giant now joins the list of other major organizations, such as AppleStarbucksAmazon and Alphabet, that have seen unionization attempts, some of which went better than others.  State of the union(s)Although labor movements at high-profile companies now routinely grab headlines, they remain unrepresentative of the bigger picture in America. In the last 50 years, private sector union membership has declined dramatically — in the 1970s nearly 25% of private sector workers were trade unionists, today that figure is closer to 6%. The public sector, however, is a different story, with union membership holding steady.
Why such disparity has emerged between private and public is a topic for an economics PhD. Some have argued that organizing efforts are just more difficult in the private sector, where bankruptcies and corporate restructuring are common. Others argue that legislative changes have made organizing difficult, and there is also evidence that unions are simply more effective when bargaining for better wages in the public sector — making them more likely to persist.
Don’t call it a comeback?Whether the current momentum translates into a meaningful unionization trend remains to be seen, but public perception suggests it might be more than a few isolated cases. A recent Gallup survey showed that 71% of Americans approve of unions, the highest number since 1965, and other studies suggest Gen-Z is more pro-union than any other generation.

www.chartr.com


9. Moscow to mobilize 500,000 new conscripts, Kyiv military intelligence says

Ukrainian officials predict the new Russian draft effort will begin after January 15.

KYIV — Ukrainian intelligence officials are warning that the Kremlin plans a new mobilization wave for up to 500,000 men to fight in Ukraine starting in mid-January.

The new conscription drive, which would be larger than last autumn’s Russian draft of 300,000, would include a push in big cities, including some strategic industrial centers in Russia, Andriy Cherniak, an official with the Main Military Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, told POLITICO on Saturday.

Russian President Vladimir Putin in December said a suggested new conscription wave would be pointless as currently only 150,000 previously mobilized soldiers have been deployed in the invasion of Ukraine. The rest are still training or serving in the Russian rear

Russia announced the end of the earlier “partial” mobilization of 300,000 men on October 31. But Cherniak claimed that Moscow has continued secret conscription all along.

Now, Ukrainian military intelligence expects a new major wave of official mobilization might begin after January 15.

“This time the Kremlin will mobilize residents of big cities, including the strategic industries centers all over Russia,” Cherniak said. “This will have a very negative impact on the already suffering Russian economy.”

Moscow plans to use the 500,000 extra conscripts in a possible new massive offensive against Ukraine, the Guardian reported, citing Vadym Skibitsky, deputy chief of Ukrainian military intelligence.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russia has seen more than 100,000 soldiers killed in action in Ukraine. The latest blow that Moscow’s army has endured was in Makiivka, a town in the occupied part of Donetsk Oblast, where hundreds of newly conscripted Russian soldiers were killed or wounded in a high-precision strike by Ukrainian forces on January 1. Although the number of casualties cannot be verified independently, the Russian Defense Ministry acknowledged the deaths of 89 soldiers, which makes it the biggest one-time military loss recognized by Moscow in the Ukraine war.

Ukrainian Armed Forces Chief Commander Valery Zaluzhnyy, in a December interview with the Economist, said Russia will conduct a new attempt at a massive offensive against Ukraine in February-March 2023. It might not start in Donbas, but in the direction of Kyiv through Belarus.

https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-mobilize-new-conscript-military-intelligence-war-ukraine/


10. Self Improvement Tips for 2022

What a year.Whilst the pandemic ceases to end, I can at least say I’ve ticked off many of the personal growth goals I set myself this time last year and turn to the new year with a clean slate, fresh goals, and a determination to succeed.

With this in mind, it’s time to go over some personal growth reminders for experienced, and novice, personal growth enthusiasts. If 2021 wasn’t your year, there’s no reason 2022 can’t not. The pandemic may bring with it restraints on our external wishes but when it comes to internal work, there is always time to work on ourselves.

Here are 4 personal growth tips to remember for the New Year.

1. Make Use of The Past But Don’t Get Lost In It

In retrospect, the past 3 years of my personal growth work have brought with it one overriding theme: Remaining present.

As someone who was prone to rumination, overthinking, and self-depreciation, the past may as well have been my second reality rather than the well of knowledge I ought to have returned to from time to time. Nowadays, I keep both feet in the present and only turn to the past when necessary.

The past is to be learned from and to be used to help guide motives in the present — not a source of constant misery that many of us use it for. In overidentifying with past mistakes, or past versions of ourselves, we prevent ourselves from evolving in the present.

In that, I am aware of my previous pain and trauma’s but I no longer identify with them. They are to be used as reminders; for how far I’ve come, where I am headed, or what to avoid doing. What they aren’t is an anchor to a past version of myself I wish to escape, but never evade as I still remain mentally tied.

As Eckhart Tolle famously says,

You cannot find yourself by going into the past. You can find yourself by coming into the present. — Eckhart Tolle

2. The Future Is Never Certain

Just as the past should be used as a tool for our present-day reality, our future, likewise, should be turned to when, and if, we need it.

Our futures are wildly uncertain. We can’t guarantee our experience of love won’t end in heartache, that our job will be secure in a year, that our friends or family won’t get sick, or where we’ll be in a year’s time. Yes, we can have an idea but even then, there are no guarantees.

This can bring a lot of anxiety to some. As humans, we seek certainty as it brings safety and uncertainty, danger; to ourselves, or those around us. It’s important to get comfortable with this fact. To get comfortable with the fact that no matter how hard we try we can’t make people love us, accept us, or heal others of their afflictions. Each of us are living our own lives.

When we try to control our external world, we lose touch with our internal one. We may turn to self-abandoning tactics and people-pleasing to feel accepted, or try to fix others all the while neglecting ourselves. While caring for others and wanting things to work out is good, we mustn’t do it at expense of us.

The present is all you truly have. Enjoy it for whatever it brings. Certainly, be mindful of where you are wanting to go and use your past accordingly if need be but don’t get lost in the future. All you have is the present moment; the past is but a past present moment and your future, a future present moment that can’t be predicted.

Relinquish control; work to stay grounded.

3. Boundaries Are Your Best Friend

Daring to set boundaries is about having the courage to love ourselves, even when we risk disappointing others. — Brene Brown

Contrary to popular belief among us people-pleasers, boundaries are not the enemy; they’re our friend, and being able to set appropriate ones and communicate them effectively to those around you is one of the most self-serving things you can hope to do in the New Year.

Boundaries are centered on self-respect. It’s about knowing what is good for your wellbeing and not settling for any less. In being boundaryless we risk being too nice and self-abandoning; two traits that are not only self-deprecating but also ironically unattractive to those around us.

There’s never not a great time to start setting boundaries so start getting clear on what you want and how you wish to be treated today.

4. Take Note of Your Intuition — It’s Here To Help You

When I first started this blog a year ago I wasn’t entirely sure why I felt the need to do it — I simply felt pulled in this direction. With more awareness, I realized it was my intuition guiding me.

Looking back at my childhood I was always creative; writing and reading and investing in my creativity. I lost it as I grew up but my subconscious held onto my love of it.

Our intuition is just as real and based in science, as our ability to logically think. It is the subconscious analysis of our reality against the out-of-touch memories of our past — creating a feeling or knowing, of what we must do. Whilst prone to faults just as our conscious thinking is, it holds secrets we may be unaware of at the surface of our mind.

In the new year, begin to lean into this supposedly 6th sense and garner an awareness over what your life may be lacking. Long before I began making art out of my personal growth and sharing my story, I had a deep sense that I needed to move in this direction. You may call it spirituality but I call it my intuition knowing I was in a rough place and wanting me to break free.

You can, too.

What is it you truly want? What is it that needs to change? What old hobby have you forgotten? What isn’t serving you?

Sometimes, we look outwards for answers when they’re located within.

-Above The Middle

 https://medium.com/illumination/self-improvement-tips-for-2022-8a4b478ed36e

 

Topley’s Top 10 – January 6, 2023

1. Retail Traders Giving Up on Tesla

Business Insider Carla Mozée -While Tesla’s stock price was under pressure last year, retail investors loaded up on the shares. Vanda’s research showed cumulative net retail purchases soared by more than 420% to $15.41 billion, edging out Apple as the most-purchased single stock by individual investors in 2022.  Retail flows on Wednesday ended at $37.8 million but were “significantly weak” even as the EV maker’s stock found a respite from recent losses and surged by 5.1%.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-price-retail-exhaustion-selloff-elon-musk-purchases-tsla-2023-1


2. Classic Run on Bank at Crypto Lender Silvergate

Silvergate Crypto Bank-Classic Run on Bank Wolf Street Losses and write-downs to wipe out much of its equity capital.

Silvergate reported a loss of $718 million on the sale of securities in Q4, a huge loss for a tiny bank like this.

It said it will incur more losses on the sale of securities. And it may have to mark to market the securities it doesn’t sell, for a loss possibly as high as another $300 million. It will book an impairment charge in Q4 to reflect some or all of this.

It took a $196 million loss in Q4 to write off the crypto technology it had bought from Facebook back when Facebook skuttled its own efforts to build the Diem stablecoin.

And it disclosed other write-offs and charges today that we’ll get to in a moment.

So, let’s see… Silvergate started out Q4 with $1.33 billion in equity capital:

  • Minus $718 million due to the loss on the sale of securities;
  • Minus a portion or all of $300 million on the loss from securities that it will sell, or that it may have to mark to market;
  • Minus $196 million on the write-off of the crypto technology it bought from Facebook;
  • Minus the other losses and write-downs we’ll get to in a moment.

Combined, this could wipe out much of Silvergate’s $1.33 billion in equity capital.

https://wolfstreet.com/2023/01/05/crypto-bank-silvergate-details-its-own-implosion-much-of-its-equity-capital-wiped-out-im-waiting-for-the-fdic-to-show-up

www.stockcharts.com


3. Cathie Wood ARKK Net Fund Inflows 2022

Found at Irrelevant Investor Blog

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2023/01/04/animal-spirits-10-predictions-for-2023/


4. Tech Stock Insider Buying Falling Off a Cliff

Sentiment Trader

https://cressetcapital.com/post/recap-2022-outlook-2023/


5-6. Two Charts from Callum Thomas on Earnings

Callum Thomas Chart Storm Peak Earnings: After a roaring rebound post-covid (thanks to reopening, massive fiscal + monetary stimulus, and an element of inflation pushing up earnings in nominal terms), the peak has now been seen.  Compared to the experience of global equities ex-US the surge in US earnings does have an air of unsustainability to it — and perhaps between the two, US has the most to lose…

Source: Topdown Charts @TopdownCharts


US vs Global Equities – Price: The big surge and breakaway of the USA vs rest of world ~earnings~ in that previous chart has been a key driver of the big surge in US vs global relative *price* performance (whodathunkit).

Interestingly though this trade ran into firm resistance this year…

Source: Topdown Charts@TopdownCharts

https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-1-january


7. Solar Panel Material Price Plunges Amid Glut

BY TYLER DURDEN-ZEROHEDGE

The price of critical material for solar panels plunged this week as supply has caught up with demand, according to BloombergNEF. 

The average cost of the highest grade of polysilicon slid another 20% this week due to oversupplied conditions. This also led to a 1% drop in solar panel prices to the lowest nominal value since May 2021. 

According to the China Silicon Industry Association, polysilicon produced in China increased to 96,700 metric tons in December 2022, 7.5% more than in the previous month. New polysilicon manufacturing capacity in China boosted domestic production in 2022 by 66%. 

BNEF analysis shows polysilicon prices are in freefall. Now at $24 per kilogram. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/solar-panel-material-price-plunges-amid-glut


8. THERE ARE “BLUE STATES” AND “RED STATES” BUT MOST STATES ARE ACTUALLY A SHADE OF PURPLE

Daily Time Waste Blog Based on the way the majority votes, most stated get labeled as either “blue” or “red.” We usually think this way because there is only one winner, and there is usually a significant enough majority to recognize election patterns. However, if we could represent the states in shades of purple, this is what the map would look like.

https://dailytimewaste.com/article/tw/1106113480/maps-that-reveal-curious-truths-about-america/?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=z7-us-d-mapustwt-sv-tw156-6&twclid=23r1ze0ulfbgl17jjbiv3h6130


9. Ten States with the Most and Least Net Domestic Migration

WSJ By The Editorial Board

https://www.wsj.com/articles/americas-blue-state-exodus-census-data-red-blue-lockdowns-pandemic-florida-california-economy-progressive-11671993469


10. How the World’s Best Leaders Use the ‘Ripcord Rule’ to Tackle Their Toughest Decisions

INC BY BILL MURPHY JR., WWW.BILLMURPHYJR.COM@BILLMURPHYJR

Fighter pilot Michael Allen pulls the safety pins out of an ejection seat as he pre-flights an F-15 at Aviano AFB, Italy. Photo: Getty Images

Here are three quick questions. Ready?

1.     What are the 2 or 3 worst things that could happen at your business?

2.     What would you do immediately, if any of them happened?

3.     Finally, imagine that you had to shut down everything quickly. How would you do it in a manner that lets you relaunch smoothly when the danger has passed?

These are incredibly tough questions to answer in the abstract, and they’re even harder when you’re under pressure.

Yet, we’ve had a lot of examples recently in which leaders had to decide things quickly under tragic circumstances: for example, the NFL game where Damar Hamlin was left fighting for his life on the field, and the Utah ski resort in which a member of the ski patrol fell off a lift and was killed.

These are dire situations, and they made me think about the U.S. military, where training for the worst case scenario is part of the job.

It’s done by planning and building muscle memory to the point at which soldiers, sailors — and as we’ll see, aviators — can react quickly and recite the protocol for events that they hope will never happen.

I call this the Ripcord Rule, because the most compelling examples I can imagine are ones in which you’re literally falling through the sky and something goes wrong with no time to think: either an airborne operation in which there is a parachute malfunction, or else the detailed, memorized checklist of things to do when a fighter pilot has to eject out of a doomed airplane.

The second example is more on my mind, because not long ago, I happened to have watched an interview with retired Navy fighter pilot Capt. Sam “Slammer” Richardson, who described what happened when he was forced to eject during a training exercise over the Pacific Ocean.

You can watch the video of his interview below, but the short version is that he tells a compelling story, and describes out all the little intermediate steps involved.

For example, as Richardson describes his ejection from an F-14 Tomcat fighter plane back in the 1980s, the protocol starts months or even years before the emergency, when he worked to memorized everything involved–just in case the worst-case ever happened:

·         First, as Richardson describes, you quickly separate the canopy from the fuselage, so that the escaping pilot and “back-seater” don’t eject directly into it. (Basically, the thing that went wrong and caused Goose’s death in Top Gun.)

·         Next, there’s the fact that the back-seater’s seat ejects a fraction of a second before the front-seat pilot, because otherwise the explosion from the front-seater’s ejection could burn the back-seater.

It goes on: a parade of small decisions and engineering choices–what you’re supposed to be thinking about as you make sure the parachute opens correctly, what you’re supposed to do during the several minutes it might take to float down to the ground, etc.

It’s pretty intriguing stuff — exactly what to do in a worst-case scenario, and frankly how to weigh the risk of death or injury versus the certainty of destroying a $40 million aircraft in the first place.

(Even that initial decision is standardized and committed to memory: basically, you learn to think about ejecting when you’re (a) in an out-of-control airplane, and (b) you’ve fallen below 10,000 feet.)

Now, neither you nor I is likely ever to eject from an F-14 Tomcat. (This is especially true since the F-14 is now retired, but you get the point.)

But, if you run an organization, you do face the possibility of a worst-case scenarios happening before you even have time to process them. And having thought through what you’ll do ahead of time is invaluable.

·         What do you do if, God forbid, a customer or an employee has a serious medical emergency? How do you get them help? What do you do for all your other other customers and employees who have likely just witnessed something traumatic?

·         Imagine a less than life-and-death emergency, but still important: a massive database failure or security breach, or a crucial supplier that suddenly cuts out and makes it impossible for you to fulfill orders. Who do you contact? How do you prioritize? What systems do you shut down immediately?

·         When do you “pull the ripcord,” so to speak? And if you do so, have you thought through ahead of time each and every little decision you’ll have to make under intense pressure and time constraints?

Nobody wants to think about these kinds of things. They’re not pleasant. But if you do the mental exercises ahead of time, and put together procedures for what you’ll do in the worst-case scenario — if you follow the Ripcord Rule, in other words — you’ll be much better prepared if the time ever comes.

And the people you’re leading will be grateful that you did.

(Here’s Captain Richardson’s story.)

How the World’s Best Leaders Use the ‘Ripcord Rule’ to Tackle Their Toughest Decisions | Inc.com

Topley’s Top 10 – January 5, 2023

1. Landmark Event….4000 Global Bonds with Negative Yield to Zero….The End of Negative Yielding Debt in Our Lifetime?

Jim Reid Deutsche Bank-A landmark event, especially as 2 years ago we had $18.4tn globally and over 4000 bonds with a negative yield. Will we ever see the 2014-2022 era again? Before this point most people would have thought negative-yielding debt was an inconceivable concept. While there is no value in buying negative yielding debt, especially in a fiat world where inflation will always likely be positive, you can’t rule out central banks having to buy large amounts of debt again in the future. However, for now this looks set to be the welcome end of an era as some value returns to global fixed income


2. Foreign Currencies Rally

Bullish Move …Euro-50 day thru 200day to Upside

Japanese Yen Closes Above 200 day Moving Average

www.stockcharts.com


3. Crypto is Not a Currency -Grid Comparing Crypto to Global Currencies.

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright


4. Final Sector Performance 2022-Consumer Discretionary Down Almost  -10% More Than Tech

From Jack Ablin-Cresset

https://cressetcapital.com/post/recap-2022-outlook-2023/


5. Consumer Discretionary-Americans Excess Savings Continue to Dwindle

The Daily Shot Blog Excess savings continue to dwindle, pointing to softer consumption ahead.

Morgan Asset Management Read full article

https://dailyshotbrief.com/


6. Homebuilder Stocks Resilient

XHB Homebuilder ETF Bullish Signal 50day thru 200day to Upside?

Longer-Term Weekly Chart-The ETF Never Broke 200 Week Moving Average


7. New Home Google Search 2021 vs. 2022 ..Big Year Over Year Search Declines.

Salt Lake home builders take notice of the massive shift from buying to renting.
As of October, Salt Lake had seen the biggest decline in new home search, & the least decline in single-family home rental search.
Biggest/least YOY search declines:
* New Homes: Salt Lake/DC
* Existing Homes: San Diego/Vegas
* Apts: W. Palm/Minn.
* SF rental: San Fran/Salt Lake(+2%)/

https://www.linkedin.com/in/johnburns7/


8. Byron Wien Famous 10 Surprises Predictions

The Ten Surprises of 2023-Byron Wien Blackstone

  1. Multiple candidates on both sides of the aisle organize campaigns to secure their party’s presidential nomination. There are new headliner names on the respective tickets for 2024.
  2. The Federal Reserve remains in a tug-of-war with inflation, so it puts the word “pivot” on the shelf alongside the word “transitory.” The fed funds rate moves above the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index and real interest rates turn positive, a rare phenomenon relative to the last decade.
  3. While the Fed is successful in dampening inflation, it over-stays its time in restrictive territory. Margins are squeezed in a mild recession.
  4. Despite Fed tightening, the market reaches a bottom by mid-year and begins a recovery comparable to 2009.
  5. Every significant correction in the market has in the past been accompanied by a financial “accident.” Cryptocurrencies had a major correction and that proved not to be a systemic event. This time, Modern Monetary Theory is fully discredited because deficits have proven to be inflationary.
  6. The Fed remains more hawkish than other central banks, and the US dollar stays strong against major currency pairs, including the yen and euro. This creates a generational opportunity for dollar-based investors to invest in Japanese and European assets.
  7. China edges toward its growth objective of 5.5% and works aggressively to re-establish strong trade relationships with the West, with positive implications for real assets and commodities.
  8. The US becomes not only the largest producer of oil, but also the friendliest supplier. The price of oil drops primarily as a result of a global recession, but also because of increased hydraulic fracking and greater production from the Middle East and Venezuela. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude touches $50 this year, but there’s a $100 tick out there sometime beyond 2023 as the world recovers.
  9. The bombardment, destruction and casualties in Ukraine continue for the first half of 2023. In the second half, the combination of suffering and cost on both sides necessitates a ceasefire and negotiations on a territorial split begin.
  10. In spite of the reluctance of advertisers to continue to support the site and the skepticism of creditors about the quality of the firm’s debt, Elon Musk gets Twitter back on the path to recovery by the end of the year.

The “Also Rans” of 2023

  1. Because of medical breakthroughs across the board, many people decide on a cryogenic burial, expecting to be defrosted when a cure for the disease that caused their demise is discovered. Funeral homes across the country advertise that “It’s Nice to Be On Ice.”
  2. A technology breakthrough in reducing the carbon emissions of coal-fired plants takes the edge off the climate / global warming scare. This lowers the political pressure on emerging markets to make a rapid transition to renewable energy sources.
  3. India begins to compete seriously to win/retain the manufacturing base that started looking for a new home after becoming increasingly uneasy with the uncertainty that has continuously surrounded US–China policies. The country initiates a campaign to attract global multinationals, focusing on its young population, relatively low income and growing consumer market, and prioritizing policies that incentivize investment in the auto, energy, pharma and tech sectors. Apple and Samsung are a proof of concept after successfully producing their respective flagship phones for global markets.

https://www.blackstone.com/insights/article/byron-wien-and-joe-zidle-the-ten-surprises-of-2023/


9. The End of Cash in Society Means the End of Bank Robberies

From Morning Brew Newsletter https://www.morningbrew.com/daily

Denmark did not have a single bank robbery last year. This could explain why.

Natalie Neysa AlundUSA TODAY

In a near cashless country, the number of bank robberies in Denmark remarkably dipped to zero last year, a new financial report shows.

In 2021, the Nordic country saw one bank robbery – down from 222 two decades ago, according to data from Finance Denmark, an industry group for lenders. 

Last year, it reported none.

Bank heists in the Scandinavian country have declined steadily since 2000, Michael Busk-Jepsen, director of digitalization at Finance Denmark, told USA TODAY Tuesday.

Increased camera surveillance, improved alarm systems and stronger cooperation with the police have helped to bring the number down, he said. In addition, beefed-up security, a reduce used of cash and a dramatic decrease in the number of Danish cashiers also helped.

Of the some 800 bank branches in Denmark, he said, less than two dozen still have staff handling cash deposits and cash withdrawals. Most customers use one of the approximate 2,000 ATMs in the country.

“And the reduction in the number of cashiers in Denmark is largely due to the fact that most payments in Denmark are made by payment cards or other digital payment options,” Busk-Jepsen said.

According to the Danish Central Bank, in 2021 only 12% of payments in physical shops in Denmark were made by cash. In 2017 the same figure was 23%, he said.

How many bank robberies were reported in the US?

Last year’s bank robbery numbers in the United States were not available as of Tuesday, but according to statistics from the U.S. Department of Justice, the Federal Bureau of Investigation reported 1,724 of them took place in 2021, up 224 from the year prior when the coronavirus pandemic hit.

What other countries are headed cashless?

Norway, Finland and New Zealand are countries closest to becoming cashless, followed by Hong Kong, Sweden, Denmark, Switzerland, the UK, Singapore and the Netherlands, according to research published by Merchant Machine.

Here’s how the U.S. compares with some other nations in the push to go cashless, according to a late November survey byYouGov Plc for Bloomberg that showed how frequently respondents said they rarely or never used cash in transactions.

  • United Kingdom: 57%
  • Canada: 55%
  • U.S. 47%
  • France: 44%
  • Italy: 28%

Natalie Neysa Alund covers trending news for USA TODAY. Reach her at nalund@usatoday.com and follow her on

Twitter @nataliealund. https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/01/04/denmark-reports-no-bank-robberies-going-cashless/10983028002/?utm_campaign=mb&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_source=morning_brew


10. 4 New Year’s Resolutions You Should Make (and Keep) to Guarantee Your Success

By Gary Vaynerchuk | 

As the year comes to a close, people are naturally going to be talking about their New Year’s resolutions and setting goals for self-improvement. But want to know what I think you should really be focusing on in the new year? These four ways to further your career and be successful at whatever it is that you do:

1. Become a deep practitioner in something.

Whether you do it for your business or just for yourself as a hobby, practice something on a deep level. One of the reasons my agency VaynerMedia has grown to be such a leader in our industry is because I use social media every single day. I understand the trigger points that make things successful in a creative world. I also understand the context of the platforms like Snapchat and Instagram. There hasn’t been a single one of my more than 200,000 tweets that I haven’t sent myself.

So, whether it’s Instagram, Snapchat or something new, become a practitioner. Stop judging what people are doing or saying and just engage.

2. Audit your 7 p.m. to 2 a.m.

Back in the days of my first big keynotes and my first book, Crush It, I began to get obsessed with the time period between 7 p.m. and 2 a.m. I do not think that there is a more practical self-improvement goal or way to bring happiness and joy to your life, whether it’s financial or creative, than to really audit how you spend your time between 7 p.m. to 2 a.m.

I am quite practical about things; it might not be what people expect from me, but I am. That time between when the traditional work day ends and when you fall asleep is the white space for people to do great things around their work. Whether that’s advancing your career by staying in the office late, or going home and building out your cooking blog or SoundCloud account, use that time more wisely.

3. Practice self-awareness.

I went on this kick publicly for the 18 months and, personally, my entire life. I believe self-awareness is the greatest gift a person can have. Having tried to tackle finding self-awareness, I promise—if, out of this entire article, you make just this self-improvement goal a priority—you will grow happier and more successful. 

4. Eliminate complaining.

Looking at the negative, seeing the glass as half-empty and complaining are the absolute biggest wastes of time a human being can engage in. I highly recommend, whether it is through therapy or just kicking the habit, that you cut your complaining in half until you are no longer used to just doing it without thinking.

Systematically. Post-it notes. Listening to positive podcasts. Doing mediation. Whatever helps you complain less. It truly is one of the biggest roadblocks to success, both professionally and personally. I would be remiss not to have it on this list.

This post originally appeared on GaryVaynerchuk.com.

This article was published in December 2015 and has been updated. Photo by Inside Creative House/Shutterstock

https://www.success.com/4-new-years-resolutions-you-should-make-and-keep-to-guarantee-your-success

Topley’s Top 10 – January 4, 2023

1.Q4-Vanguard International Stock Index +13% vs. S&P +7.4%

www.yahoofinance.com


2. Don’t Follow the Most Crowded Trades….Nov 2022 MOST CROWDED


3.Most Crowded Long Dollar Trade…….Dollar ETF Straight Down Since November …Breaks 50day then 200day


4. Second Most Crowded Short China….MSCI China ETF +40% Since November Low

www.stockcharts.com


5. Classic Behavioral Finance…China Big Rally After Record Outflows

Dave Lutz at Jones Trading International investors pulled about $7.9 billion from China’s equity markets in October through the Stock Connect program, the second-largest monthly drawdown in the history of the trading link – Outflows picked up in recent days as global investors reacted negatively to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s cementing of power with a third term as the country’s paramount leader, WSJ reports.


6. Last Count MicroStrategy Owned 130,0000 Bitcoins

MSTR was first stock to make big crypto bet with its cash…breaking thru Covid lows….$1300 to $141

MicroStrategy Price to Sales Ratio 2010-2022 | MSTR. 12x Sales to 3x Sales 2 years

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/MSTR/microstrategy/price-sale


7. Gold Rallied in December….Outperforming the Rest of Commodities.

Gold Vs. Commodity Index …50day thru 200day to upside.

www.stockcharts.com


8. U.S. GDP Survives Recessions and Keeps on Moving Higher

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/23/why-everyone-thinks-a-recession-is-coming-in-2023.html


9. EV Fleet Set to Reach 30% by 2035

Between 2030 and 2035, electric vehicles will make up 15% to 33% of the passenger vehicle fleet in Europe and the US, and EV charging will be truly mass market

Ryan Fisher

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-20/electric-vehicle-charging-investment-approaches-the-100-billion-mark?leadSource=uverify%20wall&sref=GGda9y2L


10. 3 Types of Soft Skills Employers Look for Today

Soft skills, like any other skills, can be mastered with enough practice.

KEY POINTS

  • When it comes to professionalism, employers look for someone who understands how their own actions affect the work as a whole.
  • Critical thinking requires a balance of keeping an open mind and seeking new solutions while mastering established best practices first.
  • Mastering the basics of teamwork is one of the best ways to set oneself apart as high-potential leadership material.

More and more employees these days are not used to conforming to the norms of the in-person workplace—nor do they necessarily think they should.

Following months, even years, of remote or hybrid work, many people do not realize how much “just doing their own thing” may make their attitude or behavior maladaptive in the office. Ironically, it is often those with the best technical skills who lack soft skills. Maybe they’ve gotten away with it for so long because they are so good at what they do. Maybe they think they are just not “good at” soft skills. Many more simply have no concept of the incredible power of the old-fashioned basics.

The good news is that soft skills, like any other skills, can be mastered with enough practice.

In a labor market where it is increasingly difficult to stand out based on technical expertise alone, what are the soft skills people would be wise to start building? After all, there are as many soft skills as there are definitions. These are the three top types of soft skills employers are looking for.

1. Professionalism

Professionalism is probably the most abstract of the types of soft skills, and certainly the most dependent on context. What professionalism means in one organization can be very different from what it means in another. In general, what most employers mean when they say they are looking for professionalism is someone who understands how they as an individual affect the work as a whole. That can mean anything from personal performance relative to broad standards, or how one’s behavior impacts the health of the team.

These are the most cited missing basics of professionalism:

·  Self-evaluation: Regularly assessing one’s own thoughts, words, and actions against clear meaningful standards; and one’s own performance against specific goals, timelines, guidelines, and parameters. 

·  Personal responsibility: Staying focused on what one can control directly—principally oneself—and controlling one’s responses in the face of factors outside one’s own control. 

·  Positive attitude: Maintaining and conveying a positive, generous, enthusiastic demeanor in one’s expressions, gestures, words, and tone. 

·  Good work habits: Wellness, self-presentation, timeliness, organization, productivity, quality, follow-through, and initiative. 

·  Interpersonal communication: Attentive listing, observing, and reading; perceiving and empathizing; effective use of words, tone, expressions, and gestures—verbal, written, and otherwise; one-on-one and in groups; in-person and remotely.

2. Critical thinking

Some people (and their managers) fall into the trap of believing their work doesn’t require critical thinking—to use the classic phrase, it’s not “knowledge work.” Whatever your job, knowledge work is not about what you do, but how you think about what you do. Some people understand this but end up reinventing the wheel. Critical thinking requires a balance of keeping an open mind and seeking new solutions while mastering established best practices first.

These are the core basics of critical thinking, no matter what type of work you do:

·  Proactive learning: Keeping an open mind, suspending judgment, questioning assumptions, and seeking out information, technique, and perspective; and studying, practicing, and contemplating to build one’s stored knowledge base, skill set, and wisdom

·  Problem-solving: Mastering established best practices—proven repeatable solutions for dealing with regular recurring decisions—to avoid reinventing the wheel. Using repeatable solutions to improvise when addressing decisions that are new but similar. 

·  Decision-making: Identifying and considering multiple options, assessing the pros and cons of each, and choosing the course of action closest to the desired outcome.

3. Teamwork

In today’s working environment of increasingly collaborative relationships, teamwork is a critical skill in every role in any organization. In fact, mastering these basics of teamwork is one of the best ways to set yourself apart as high-potential leadership material:

·  Appreciating context: Reading and adapting to the existing structure, rules, customs, and leadership in an unfamiliar situation. 

·  Citizenship: Accepting, embracing, and observing, not just the rights and rewards, but the duties of membership/belonging/participation in a defined group with its own structure, rules, customs, and leadership. 

·  Service: Approaching relationships in terms of what you have to offer—respect, commitment, hard work, creativity, sacrifice—rather than what you need or want.

·  Playing your position: Doing the part assigned (or relegated) to you to support the larger mission; coordinating, cooperating, and collaborating with others in pursuit of a shared goal; supporting and celebrating the success of others.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/navigating-the-new-workplace/202301/3-types-of-soft-skills-employers-look-for-today