Category Archives: Daily Top Ten

Topley’s Top 10 – February 09, 2023

1. 2022 Speculation Comeback…Retail Order Flow Higher than Covid.

Found at Irrelevant Investor Blog https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/


2. FANG+ Stocks Update

FANG Plus Index Broke Above Summer 2022 Highs

50Day Turning Up But Still Below 200Day on Chart

www.stockcharts.com


3. $2.9 Trillion in Market Cap Added

Bespoke Investment Group After seeing the total market cap for the Russell 1,000 fall by $10.9 trillion in 2022, we’ve seen a rebound of $2.9 trillion in market cap so far in 2023.  Below is a look at the total change in market cap by sector across the Russell 1,000 so far in 2023 and for all of 2022.  The Tech sector saw its market cap fall $4.35 trillion last year, and it has seen its market cap rise by $1.176 trillion to start 2023.  Consumer Discretionary’s market cap has risen by $701 billion, followed by Communication Services at $516.9 billion and Financials at $373 billion.

Four sectors have actually seen their market caps fall this year.  Health Care’s market cap has fallen the most at -$141 billion, while Energy has fallen $57 billion, Consumer Staples has declined $32.2 billion, and Utilities has fallen $29.9 billion.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/2-9-trillion-in-market-cap-added


4. Probability of Recession Survey was Highest Ever

Torsten Slok Investors have been underperforming their benchmarks because they entered 2023 underweight equities, expecting a slowdown that still hasn’t happened, see chart below.

Torsten Slok, Ph.D.-Chief Economist, Partner


5. Junk Bond Spreads Well Below Highs

Dave Lutz at Jones Trading CREDIT LEADS– Prices of risky US companies’ debt have risen sharply this year as investors bet the Federal Reserve will bring inflation under control without triggering a damaging recession. Yields on US junk bonds — debt sold by businesses with low credit ratings — have fallen by more than one percentage point since the end of 2022, according to an Ice Data Services index, trading at an average of 7.97 per cent. The decline reflects a sharp increase in prices.  In turn, the gap between junk yields and those of US government bonds has narrowed by more than 0.8 percentage points to less than 4 percentage points — the first time it has sat below that level since last April. The shrinking “spread” implies waning expectations of debt defaults for the $1.8tn low-grade corporate bond market.


6. Inflation Related Stocks Still Outperforming.

Equities: Despite slowing inflation, companies that benefit form higher prices have been outperforming.

Source: The Daily Shot

https://dailyshotbrief.com/


7. Value ETFs/Funds Trading Over 20X P/E

What Is Value? Methodology Matters (gmo.com)


8. Starbucks Growth in Active Rewards Members

www.chartr.com


9. Electrification Targets for Carmakers

Paul Jacobs EVBoosters.com

https://www.linkedin.com/in/pauljanjacobs/


10. A neuroscientist shares the 4 ‘highly coveted’ skills that set introverts apart: ‘Their brains work differently’

Cnbc Friederike Fabritius, Contributor@FRIEDERIKEFAB

Being the most talkative person in the room may be a good way to get people’s attention, but it doesn’t necessarily mean you have the best ideas.

As a neuroscientist, I’ve worked with large companies like Google and Deloitte on how to attract and retain top talent, and I’ve found that employers tend to favor extroverts.

But there are some surprising strengths that introverts bring to the table, and they shouldn’t be overlooked.

As bestselling author Susan Cain points out in her book, “Quiet: The Power of Introverts in a World That Can’t Stop Talking”: “Extroverts are more likely to focus on what’s happening around them. It’s as if extroverts are seeing ‘what is,’ while their introverted peers are asking ‘what if.’” 

What sets introverts apart from extroverts

Don’t get me wrong: Both extroverts and introverts have wonderful qualities. But research shows that introverts may have the upper hand.

Here are four highly coveted skills that set introverts apart from everyone else:

1. Introverts think more.

Gray matter, which exists in the outer most layer of the brain, serves to process and release new information in the brain.

One Harvard study found that introverts’ brains work differently, and have thicker gray matter compared to extroverts. In people who are strongly extroverted, gray matter was consistently thinner. Introverts also showed more activity in the frontal lobes, where analysis and rational thought take place.

Another study that scanned brains of both introverts and extroverts found that, even in a relaxed state, the introverted brain was more active, with increased blood flow.

2. Introverts can focus longer.

When Albert Einstein — a known introvert — was a child, his teachers thought he was a quiet loner who seemed a million miles away, lost in his thoughts.

Einstein said: “It’s that I stay with problems longer.” This ability to focus intensely is a key characteristic of introverts, who often have more extended focus than extroverts.

Because they enjoy spending time alone, introverts tend to be more willing than extroverts to put in the hours alone necessary to master a skill.

3. Introverts are often “gifted” in a specific field.

On average, introverts and extroverts are the same in terms of intelligence. But statistics show that around 70% of gifted people are introverts.

People are considered “gifted” when they exhibit above-average intelligence or a superior talent for something, such as music, art or math.

If your workplace is dominated by extroverts who criticize those who prefer to work alone — or skip after-work cocktails — as “not team players,” it may inadvertently alienate gifted people.

4. Introverts do the right thing.

Introverts tend to be less swayed by external events and driven more by their inner moral compass.

2013 study on social conformity found that extroverts are more willing to go along with the opinion of the majority, even if it’s wrong. Extroverts are more likely than introverts to succumb to social pressure.

The researchers concluded: “The higher the pressure, a larger number of conforming responses are given by extroverts.” In contrast, “there is no difference in conforming responses given to high- and low-pressure levels by introverts.”

How to create a workplace where introverts thrive

Introverts are often exhausted in their workplace because many of their colleagues don’t know how to harness the power introversion.

Here’s how managers can create an introvert-friendly workplace:

·    Respect boundaries. It takes up to 23 minutes for a person to regain focus after they’ve been interrupted. Don’t expect people to answer every email or Slack message immediately.

·    Brainstorm alone. Letting people shout ideas at each other in a room sounds like fun. But research shows that if you want to maximize creativity, let people generate ideas by themselves before sharing them in a group. Bonus: Your introverts will be far more comfortable sharing.

·    Shorten meetings. Many introverts, as you can probably guess, are not fans of meetings. Let go of the idea that the entire office has to be invited to every meeting so that no one feels left out.

·    Don’t force a certain type of communication. The introverts in your office may prefer emails, while the extroverts might enjoy handling business on the phone. Encourage people decide how they want to communicate, like whether to turn their cameras on or off, even if it differs from yours.

·    Provide the option of privacy. Extroverts may love to see everybody all the time, but introverts tend to need privacy. The solution is a flexible work environment that provides silence and private space for introverts, and lively, interactive open space for extroverts.

As an introvert, my general message to employers is, “Let my people rest.” Like it or not, the future of work is all about more choices, autonomy, and a culture that embraces introversion.

Friederike Fabritius, MS, is a neuroscientist and trailblazer in the field of neuroleadership. She has given talks at large organizations including Google, Accenture, Deloitte, BMW and Audi, and serves on the prestigious German Academy of Science and Engineering. She is also the best-selling author of “The Leading Brain: Neuroscience Hacks to Work Smarter” and “The Brain-Friendly Workplace: Why Talented People Quit and How to Get Them to Stay.” Follow her on FacebookInstagram and Twitter.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/07/neuroscientist-shares-coveted-skills-that-set-introverts-apart-their-brains-work-differently.html

Topley’s Top 10 – February 08, 2023

1. Total Asset Class Returns 2000-2009

https://twitter.com/PeterMallouk


2. Unemployment and Recessions.

Liz Ann Sonders Schwab Regardless of your outlook, saying the economy is ‘nowhere near a recession because the unemployment is so low’ goes against history of unemployment rate always near (or at) its lowest right before recession starts

https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders


3. European Financials About to Break Above Levels Going Back to 2018


4. Euro and Yen Updates.

Foreign Currencies Hit Record Cheap Levels 2022….Now…Euro 50day thru 200day to upside 2023.

Yen 50 day thru 200 day to upside 2023


5. Japan’s Wages Jump by Biggest Margin in Almost 26 Years

Strength of wage growth a key factor for Bank of Japan policy

Household spending fell in December as inflation weighs

Erica Yokoyama and Toru Fujioka

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-06/japan-s-nominal-wages-jump-by-biggest-margin-in-nearly-26-years?sref=GGda9y2L


6. UBER +70% From Low


7. Amazon Ran Right Up to 200day and Reversed Back Down …Finished Down Yesterday vs. Naz +1.9%

www.stockcharts.com


8. Small Cap Value Up Against New High Going Back to January 2021


9. Electric car batteries get a second life storing solar power

Axios Alex Fitzpatrick

B2U Storage Solutions’ Sierra facility in Lancaster, Calif. Photo courtesy of B2U Storage Solutions

A California energy startup has turned more than a thousand electric vehicle (EV) batteries into solar power storage capsules, in an intriguing effort to prove out an alternative to traditional recycling.

Why it matters: Electric cars are cleaner than their gas-guzzling counterparts, but their batteries extract a significant ecological toll in the form of mining and manufacturing.

  • Repurposing old EV batteries can maximize their lifetime use, thus squeezing more benefit out of each battery made.
  • Energy storage, meanwhile, can help alleviate solar energy’s intermittency problem — meaning, batteries can store solar power to be used when the sun isn’t shining.

Driving the news: B2U Storage Solutions’ Sierra facility has reached 25MWh of solar storage capacity using second-life EV batteries from Honda and Nissan, the company announced Tuesday.

  • During the day, the Lancaster, Calif. facility’s batteries are charged up by nearby solar panels. The company then sells power back to the grid at night, when the rates for solar power are higher.
  • The facility generated more than $1 million in revenue last year, the company says.

The intrigue: B2U’s big breakthrough is a proprietary plug-and-play technology that uses battery packs’ existing management systems.

  • That, says co-founder and president Freeman Hall, “virtually eliminates the repurposing costs” and makes the company’s tech “a very pragmatic operation as we go forward.”

What they’re saying: Repurposed EV batteries work well for solar storage, in part because the job is much less stressful compared to powering a car, says Hall.

  • “The current we’re applying isn’t even a tenth of what they’re rated for, and we don’t push them all the way to the top end or the bottom end in terms of their rated voltage levels.”
  • That should translate into a long second lifespan.

Reality check: 25MWh isn’t huge — the world’s biggest solar storage facilities advertise hundreds of MWh.

Yes, but: The point of B2U’s Sierra facility is simply to demonstrate that second-life EV batteries can be used as solar storage at worthwhile scale.

  • “As we have that track record laid out over time, get that cycle history, get that dataset, demonstrate effectiveness, then we’re in a better position to scale as the number of batteries going forward expands,” Hall says.

Meanwhile: Battery recycling firms, such as Redwood Materials and Lithion, are also gaining steam.

What we’re watching: Whether other use cases crop up.

  • Car manufacturers may explore similar technology to help decarbonize their production lines, while airports and airlines are also interested in small-scale onsite energy storage, as Axios’ Joann Muller has reported.

What’s next: As early EV owners upgrade to newer models, the available supply of used batteries is expected to skyrocket — and many could be turned into alternative energy storage solutions.

Go deeper: Energy storage is starting to rival new transmission

https://www.axios.com/2023/02/07/electric-car-batteries-solar-power-storage


10. I treat people with gambling disorder – and I’m starting to see more and more young men who are betting on sports

Author Tori Horn

We believe in the free flow of information

As a therapist who treats people with gambling problems, I’ve noticed a shift over the past few years – not only in the profile of the typical clients I treat, but also in the way their gambling problems develop.

In 2018, the U.S. Supreme Court made the landmark decision to allow states to legalize sports wagering. Tennessee, where I am studying clinical psychology, took advantage of this ruling, and in late 2020, the state legalized online and mobile sports betting.

With most sportsbooks offering betting apps, my clients are finding it more difficult to quit gambling than ever before. Unlike other forms of gambling, such as playing roulette or slots at a casino, these apps are on their phones and in their pockets, accompanying them wherever they go.

This availability makes it that much harder to resist any urges that might arise – and presents unique challenges for helping clients reduce their gambling.

Do experts have something to add to public debate?

We think so

A new type of client emerges

When I first started treating people for gambling disorder in 2019, my clients were usually older and gambled in casinos, with slot machines and card games among their favorite forms of gambling. They also tended to be poorer and often talked about how they began gambling to make some side money, viewing it as a second job. Many of them had retired and would say things like, “Going to the casino gets me out of the house” or “The casino is like my ‘Cheers’” – a nod to the popular watering hole in the eponymous sitcom.

That all changed when sports betting was legalized in Tennessee in November 2020.

Since then, I’ve noticed that my average client has started to look different. I’m now providing therapy to younger men, mostly in their 20s, who are seeking treatment for problems with sports betting. These clients tend to earn more money and be wealthier than my previous clients – a pattern that sports betting researchers have observed.

Several of them reported being avid sports fans or having a competitive streak. And they thought they could “beat the system” due to their extensive sports knowledge.

Many of them started betting on sports after hearing promotions for various betting companies. Even if you’re a casual sports fan with no interest in betting, you can’t miss these ads, which regularly air during televised sporting events. For example, some ads for FanDuel, one of the more popular sports betting apps, highlight a “No Sweat First Bet,” with new users eligible for a risk-free bet of up to $1,000.

There’s also a social element to sports betting. One client talked about betting on sports as a way to bond with relatives who also gambled. Similarly, a few college students I have treated told me that they started betting because they wanted to fit in with their fraternity brothers.

The apps don’t make it easy to set limits

But once gambling issues begin, it can be hard for these clients to stop. Most of them started by placing smaller bets on a single outcome. Over time, they start to bet more to recoup their losses. Before they knew it, their bets had increased, with many not realizing how this change even happened.

Betting apps are available on any smartphone and are connected to clients’ bank accounts, making it quick and easy to deposit more funds. This often leads clients to lose track of how much money they have lost. As one client told me, “It’s easier to spend money on these apps because you never really see it. The transactions are all done electronically.”

These apps do not make it easy for those with gambling problems to sign up for cool-off periods or self-exclusion. Cool-off periods allow the user to set a time frame – from a few hours to several months – where they will be unable to log into their betting account. Self-exclusion allows the user to ban themselves from the app for longer periods of time. Specific exclusion lengths differ by state. In Tennessee, there are one-year, five-year and lifetime ban options.

While many apps have these features, my clients often have to search online for this information, and even when they do find it, they can’t figure out how to put these guardrails in place. If they wish to set a cool-off period or ban themselves from all sports betting apps, they must do so from each app, one at a time, which can be tedious.

It’s impossible to avoid sports and smartphones

Sports betting presents unique challenges for treating gambling problems.

In addiction treatment, therapists, like me, often encourage clients to fill their time with activities that aren’t connected to gambling or to avoid situations where they may be likely to gamble. But when gambling is available at the touch of a button, it becomes harder to determine what situations may lead to gambling, which makes it harder to figure out what to avoid.

Before the apps, clients had to make plans for how and when to gamble. Now, all they have to do is pick up their phone and open an app. It is also incredibly difficult, if not impossible, to ask a client to stop using their smartphone or stop watching sports.

This is why I often tailor treatment to each client’s needs and circumstances. Some may wish to quit altogether, while others may simply want to cut back on their gambling. This has forced me to consider other possible alternatives, such as showing them how to set screen time limits for sportsbook apps or talking about strategies to watch less sports.

Most people who bet on sports don’t develop gambling problems. But with so few regulations in place – advertising or otherwise – those who are the most at risk are especially vulnerable to developing problems.

https://theconversation.com/i-treat-people-with-gambling-disorder-and-im-starting-to-see-more-and-more-young-men-who-are-betting-on-sports-198285

 

Found at Abnormal Returns Blog www.abnormalreturns.com

 

Topley’s Top 10 – February 07, 2023

1. Retail Flows Out of U.S. into Europe

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading FT says US investors appear to be losing faith in their own stock market and pumping money into overseas bourses.  Investors withdrew a net $10bn from US-listed exchange traded funds focused on US stocks during January, according to data from the Investment Company Institute, a trade body. This was the second-largest monthly outflow from domestic equity funds since January 2019 and the eighth largest in the past decade.  At the same time, US investors poured a net $17.8bn into overseas equity ETFs, the largest monthly flow for a year


2. 30 Year U.S. Treasury Downtrend Line Going Back to 1983

30-year treasury yield ran up to red downtrend line dating back 30 years

www.stockcharts.com


3. Speculation Back..ARKK +42% from Lows


4. TSLA +52% from lows


5. RPG S&P 500 Pure Growth Now Majority Energy and Healthcare ….+2.3% YTD

Top Sectors

Top Holdings

https://www.etf.com/RPG#overview


6. Turkey ETF Double Off Low from Fall 2022..Holding Up Post Tragic Earthquake


7. Credit Card Interest Rates Now 19%…Yet to be Determined Effect on Consumer Spending.

But the recession will not commence until the US consumer really pulls back, and one major driver of that will be interest rates. Credit Credit debt has been rising fast of late, and the cost of that debt is has now spiked to over 19%. This is the highest rate on record with data going back to 1995. How long will it take before this starts to impact spending? That will be one of the key questions for the economy this year.

The Week in Charts (2/3/23) – Charlie Bilello’s Blog


8. 40% of Internet Users Log Onto Facebook Every Day

Maximum efficiency–Meta’s share price soared nearly 20% on Friday, after an earnings report in which CEO Mark Zuckerberg heralded 2023 as the “year of efficiency” for the company that turned 19 on Saturday. 
Admittedly, when Zuck founded the company it looked a lot different. Metaor Facebook, or The Facebook, started life as a simple online student directory, rather than the tech behemoth that is currently preoccupied with building a — very expensive — virtual world for work and play.
Not dead yetEven though the founder’s focus has obviously shifted in the intervening years, the social heart of the tech giant is still beating strongly as Facebook prepares to enter its third decade.
Indeed, the number of active Facebookers hasn’t really stopped growing. At the end of 2022, Meta revealed that a staggering 2 billion people log in every single day to like, post and poke on Facebook. That means that nearly 40% of all global internet users are on Facebook daily. The figures become even more mind-boggling when you take into account Meta’s full “family of apps” (WhatsApp, Messenger and Instagram), which reported 2.96 billion daily active users, meaning not far off 60% of all internet users log into a Meta product everyday.

WWW.CHARTR.COM


9. Bachelor Programs Gains and Losses

Gray Associates Elaine Rowles

https://www.grayassociates.com/graydata-espresso/bachelors-programs-whats-hot-and-whats-not/


10. You Don’t Control What the Fates Decide for You

The Daily Stoic Blog Things go wrong. We get screwed over. We make mistakes. It happens. The idea that it shouldn’t affect a Stoic? Preposterous. No amount of training, Seneca writes, takes away natural feelings. So it’s OK that you don’t like what happened. What matters is what happens next.

Take NFL coach Steve Wilks, for instance, who was recently passed over for a head coaching job he more than deserved. He took over as the interim coach for the ailing Carolina Panthers when they were 1-4 and led the team to a 7-10 finish. He won the overwhelming support of the locker room, and impressed the league.

And yet there he was…passed over for the job for a white head coach who had been fired just months before after leading the Colts to a 3-5-1 record. Was there a racial component to this? Maybe (Wilks has experienced that before). But whether it is or isn’t doesn’t change the fact that it’s still a thing that sucks–no one wants to lose out on a job. And if it is in fact another example of the race problem in the NFL, it only makes it more frustrating and painful.

This is why Wilks’ comments after he didn’t get the job are so perfect. “The sun rose this morning and by the grace of God so did I,” he explained. “I’m disappointed but not defeated. Many people aren’t built for this but I know what it means to persevere and see it through.” Disappointed but not defeated. The Stoics knew disappointment well…but they rarely despaired. They would have liked Wilks’ attitude, as well as the distinction that Hemingway made in The Old Man and The Sea, “Man is not made for defeat. A man can be destroyed but not defeated.”

You don’t control what the fates decide for you. You don’t choose to be passed over for a job. Nobody wants to come face to face with an error or an unpleasant reality. But you do control whether you give up, whether you let it break your heart, whether you are defeated.

https://dailystoic.com/

Topley’s Top 10 – February 06, 2023

1. Short-Dated Options Explode…New Speculative Tool.

BARRONS Randall W. Forsyth

Now, insouciant speculation has returned in another acronym, 0DTE, which stands for Zero Days to Expiration options. Short-term calls and puts have long been favorites of speculative traders because they cost less than lengthier contracts. To help traders scratch that speculative itch, the exchanges have been offering ever-shorter options until they got to 0DTE. 

And their growth has been explosive, so much so that their trading volume is swamping the turnover in the underlying securities, reports Doug Kass, who heads Seabreeze Partners and flagged the 0DTE phenomenon for us. He likens it to the speculative frenzy once seen in the trading of hot initial public offerings, when new shares would change hands several times on their first day, he said in a phone interview.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/zero-options-fuel-frenzy-wall-street-casino-meme-stocks-51675445766

ADVISOR PERPECTIVES BLOG-There’s another attraction to trading cheap 0DTE options, according to Julian Emanuel, chief equity and derivative strategist at Evercore ISI. Unlike the era of TINA—There Is No Alternative to equities—when interest rates were pinned to near zero, investors now can comfortably earn more than 4% in money-market funds. At the same time, after getting burned when the FAANG and meme-stock bubbles deflated, many individuals are wary of plunging back into the market. But they can get back into the action by putting just a few percent of their portfolios into 0DTE options, where only the small price of the option is at risk.

So an unintended consequence of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hikes has been to facilitate speculation in short-dated options while investors earn a reasonable risk-free return on the bulk of their money, Emanuel says.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com


2. Behavioural Finance at its Best….Retail Investors Sold 60/40 at Record Pace at End of 2022….Q1 2023 95th percentile performance for asset class

Capital Group We saw a lot of folks exit balanced strategies in 2022,” says Hilda Applbaum, an equity portfolio manager for American Balanced Fund®. “While there is a lot of wisdom in markets, there also is a herd mentality. I believe many investors have become disbelievers in balanced strategies at the wrong time. I am confident that, going forward, balanced portfolios — whether they are a 60/40 split or 65/35 — may continue to be a successful approach for most investors over the long term.”

Investors have pulled billions of dollars from balanced strategies

Sources: Capital Group, Morningstar. Figures reflect the total estimated combined net flow of funds across exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and mutual funds that fall into the Morningstar category “Allocation — 50% to 70% Equity,” and broadly represent funds that reflect a roughly 60/40 blend between equity and bond exposure, respectively. Data as of 12/31/2022.

https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/3-reasons-60-40-portfolios-comeback.html?sfid=1988901890&cid=80925380&et_cid=80925380&cgsrc=SFMC&alias=D-btn-LP-6-A1cta-Advisor


3. Highest Short-Interest Crypto Stocks

Jack Denton

https://www.barrons.com/articles/crypto-blackrock-silvergate-coinbase-51675466445?mod=past_editions


4. High Short-Interest Stocks in Russell 1000 Highest Performance YTD

Bespoke Investment Group-We may be just a little more than a month into the new year, but there have already been a handful of Russell 1,000 stocks that have posted absolutely massive moves. There are currently seven Russell 1,000 stocks that have doubled year to date, some of which are more embattled high-growth stocks like Carvana (CVNA) and Peloton (PTON). Breaking down the index into deciles based on which stocks have the highest levels of short interest clearly shows that the top performers have also been those which have been most heavily bet against by investors.  Whereas the decile of stocks with the lowest levels of short interest has risen a mere 4.4%, the decile of most heavily shorted names is up a substantial 36.3%.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/new-chapter-in-the-meme-stock-mania


5. LPL Research on History of S&P 500 Golden Cross

https://lplresearch.com/2023/02/03/golden-cross-not-just-another-flash-in-the-pan/


6. Natural Gas Futures Update

Wisdom Tree Nitesh Shah

https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/blog/2023/01/30/have-we-hit-peak-bearishness-on-natural-gas-yet?utm_source=segment&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=blogalertrecap


7. Weak Dollar …Stocks Selling Internationally Outperform

Equities: Companies with international sales exposure continue to outperform as the US dollar softens.

Source: Daily Shot


8. Broker Dealer Index ETF Breaking Out to New Highs

www.stockcharts.com


9. Infrastructure ETF Breaks Out to New Highs

Jobs report showed 25k construction jobs added


10. Eagles coach Nick Sirianni: Highly successful people ‘get a little bit better’ each day—but there’s 1 thing in your way

Natasha Piñon

After the Philadelphia Eagles advanced to this year’s Super Bowl, head coach Nick Sirianni set a simple goal for his players over their next two weeks of practices — be a little bit better today than you were yesterday.

The only obstacle in the way: “distractions from the outside world,” Sirianni said at a press conference last week, two days after the Eagles defeated the San Francisco 49ers to set up a Super Bowl matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs on Feb. 12.

“Our job is to get a little better each day, to climb,” Sirianni said. “We don’t need to think about getting way down the road here, but how do we get a little better today?”

For Sirianni, who’s in his second season as the Eagles’ head coach, that’s the key to achieving success. Small-scale focus adds up: Experts recommend breaking down ambitious goals — like winning the Super Bowl — into smaller, achievable tasks that can be sustained over a longer period of time.

As long as you stay focused, anyway. On average, returning to your original level of focus after a distraction takes more than 23 minutes, according to a University of California-Irvine study

Defeating workplace distractions is a three-step process that starts with acknowledging their existence, behavioral expert Nir Eyal told CNBC Make It last month. Break down the stigma by sharing your own struggles with distractions.

Then, make sure the entire team is on the same page schedule-wise. When is everyone collectively focused on specific tasks? When can people take time to ask questions or take breaks?

Lastly, focus only on what’s most important.

In an office setting, for example, most emails and Slack messages — even ones from your boss — are probably less timely than we pretend they are, Eyal said. Unless you save them for after you’ve completed your current task, they’re often just distractions.

“Nothing terrible happens,” Eyal said. “We think these things are urgent, [but] there are very few emergencies that you have to respond to right now.”

Sirianni, who appears to be carefully following that playbook, added a fourth observation last week: You might need to identify what most easily distracts you, or the people around you. List what you didn’t accomplish in a given day, and then backtrack to see what specifically held you up.

“Everybody’s distractions look different,” Sirianni said.

Managing distractions isn’t always easy, especially over lengthy periods of time. Luckily for Sirianni, he only needs his players to stay focused for one more game this season.

“It will be a challenge,” he said. “But … when you’re playing for something that’s bigger than yourself, because of the relationships that you have with your teammates and your coaches, then you’re willing to sacrifice things.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/06/philadelphia-eagles-coach-nick-sirianni-how-to-eliminate-distractions.html

Topley’s Top 10 – February 03, 2023

1. Corporate Bond Funds

HYG High Yield ETF Runs 3rd Rally Since May 2022 to this level

Investment Grade Bond ETF Similar Picture

www.stockcharts.com


2. 10 Year Treasury Yield Approaching 200day to Downside

www.stockcharts.com


3. Semiconductors 48% Move Off Bottom

SMH Semiconductor ETF rally approaching March 2022 highs

Barrons Tae KimFollow  Tech Earnings Are in Full Swing. The News From Chips Isn’t Good.  This article is from the free weekly Barron’s Tech email newsletter. Sign up here to get it delivered directly to your inbox.

Chip Gloom. Hi everyone. Earnings season is in full swing. There’s no better way to get insights on what’s happening in the technology business and the economy than hearing directly from the companies themselves.

Heading into earnings, investors were hoping that executives would signal a coming end to the semiconductor downturn. But comments over the past week from the three major chip makers — Texas Instruments TXN +1.44%  (ticker: TXN ), Intel INTC +3.85%  ( INTC ), and Advanced Micro Devices AMD +4.34%  ( AMD )—have offered a different reality: the chip business continues to falter.

 

Here are my four key takeaways from chip earnings thus far:

1. The slowing global economy is hurting chip demand in nearly every industry except for one..

2. Computer chip demand is fading. There is little visibility.

3. AMD has a life raft in server chips.

4. No recovery in China yet

https://www.barrons.com/articles/tech-earnings-amd-intel-stock-51675279355


4. Software ETF

IGV Software ETF makes a higher low on chart….Forming a rangebound chart

www.stockcharts.com


5. Homebuilder ETF Almost Flat One-Year Performance

https://www.google.com/search?q=xhb+chart&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS898US898&oq=xhb+chart&aqs=chrome.0.69i59j0i22i30j69i60l3.1670j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8


6. Starbucks Earnings Out …Chart Ran Back to 2021 Levels.


7. Bitcoin-Will Bitcoin Sustain a Higher Low Here?

Bitcoin 2019-2021 spent a lot of time around 10,000….bouncing here above those lows.

COINDESK Chart

https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin


8. Chinese Companies Hold the Most AI Patents

Found at Zerohedge https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/chinese-companies-dominate-among-global-ai-patents


9. American Satisfaction Poll

GALLUP BY LYDIA SAAD

Bottom Line

Americans have long desired more from government when it comes to addressing the nation’s problems, whether that be policies pertaining to energy, guns, the environment or education. Today’s average issue satisfaction rating is tied with 2022’s for the lowest Gallup has recorded in its measurements since 2001 but is not vastly different from the past.

On the other hand, Americans’ belief in some of the nation’s fundamental merits has been shaken since the emergence of the pandemic and the subsequent economic turmoil. Less than two-thirds are satisfied with the quality of life today or with the opportunity to get ahead through hard work, down from much higher levels as recently as January 2020. Satisfaction with the nation’s system of government and how it works has fallen even more dramatically, from 68% in 2001 to 33% today, although much of that decline occurred over the first decade. And satisfaction ratings with government power, corporate power and income inequality are all at or near their record lows.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/469241/americans-glum-state-union-areas.aspx


10. 4 Things High Achievers Do Differently

by Ruth Gotian

We’ve all heard the saying, “Do what you love, and you’ll never work a day in your life.” Yet a recent Gallup study shows that many people are, in fact, not loving their work and are miserable in their jobs, with only 21% of employees engaged at work and 33% thriving in their overall well-being globally. Individually and as a society, we seem to have lost our hope for the future. People want to succeed, but the path to achievement is murky. No one wakes up aiming to be average, but all the messages we receive, consciously and unconsciously, appear to push us to that undistinguishable level.

At work, our performance is measured against benchmarks. We’re pushed to reach “acceptable standards.” Even annual performance appraisals are based on whether we fall above or below a mean score. Average has become the target, and that’s a shame, as high achievers who blow benchmarks out of the water are 400% more productive than the average employee.

What if the average became our floor instead of our ceiling?

For nearly a decade, I’ve interviewed scores of high achievers, from astronauts to Olympic gold medalists to Nobel Prize winners, for my book The Success Factor. What was revealing is that irrespective of their industry, all high achievers had four things in common, and any of us can customize them to our own lifestyle, not by copying their habits but by emulating their mindsets.

1) Tap into your intrinsic motivation.

Why did you enter your chosen profession? Getting to the “why” behind your career choice is critical, as it will help you get in touch with your deepest motivations, block out distractions, and potentially adjust (or reengage) with your current path.

For instance, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the NIH’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, is motivated by helping others. When I asked how he selects which problems to focus on, he told me that he picks problems that he feels are important, not just interesting. This sentiment was repeated by many of the people I spoke with — they focused on doing work that would make an impact beyond themselves. For the highest achievers, it’s not about the medals, rewards, bonuses, or promotions.

To the point, very few of the Olympians I spoke to keep their medals on display. Most keep them in a safe, the nightstand drawer, thrown on a shelf, or in the case of the most decorated winter Olympian, Apolo Ohno, in a brown paper bag in his sock drawer. They all told me that they loved what they do, could not imagine another path, and would do it for free if they could. In fact, I have yet to meet a Nobel Prize winner who quit their scientific work after winning their field’s most prestigious award. “That’s a chapter in my life, not the entire journey” was a phrase insinuated repeatedly.

What you can do:

To tap into your intrinsic motivation, ask yourself: What fuels my curiosity? Is it aligned with what fuels my work? If you’re focused only on external factors (like rewards), you’re likely on the path to burnout.

I recommend creating a passion audit, which will help you differentiate between what you are good at versus what you are not, and what you enjoy doing versus where you procrastinate. Look for themes and see how you can embed some of your more passionate tasks into your career. It doesn’t have to be much. Research from the Mayo Clinic has shown that when physicians spend just 20% of their time working on something they’re passionate about, it significantly reduces their level of burnout.

2) Get comfortable with failure.

Dr. Peggy Whitson is a biochemist who worked at NASA. She always dreamed of becoming an astronaut but was met with repeated hurdles. For a full decade, she applied to be an astronaut but was repeatedly rejected. She didn’t quit after the first, second, or even third rejection. Every time she faced a hurdle, she asked herself, “What strategy have I not thought of yet?” She leveraged what she learned working at NASA to be more competitive as an astronaut applicant.

It’s a good thing Dr. Whitson didn’t allow the rejections to deflate her motivation because she ultimately went on to become the first female commander of the international space station (a role she held twice), spent more days in space than any American astronaut of any gender, and ultimately became NASA’s chief astronaut.

Some people fear failing, while others fear succeeding. High achievers fear “not trying” more than they fear failing. For them, it’s not a question of if they can overcome a challenge; the focus is always on how they can. They consider alternative strategies and work fiercely to control what they can control, and ignore distractions.

Despite what you might have heard, not all high achievers wake up at 5 am to do this work either, especially if they’re not morning people. The people I spoke to learned to optimize their peak performance hours.

What you can do:

To achieve a similar focus, consider this two-step approach. Learn to leverage your cognitive hours, those when you are most able to concentrate, and spend that time on your deep focus work, not passive tasks such as responding to emails or scheduling Zoom meetings, which you can do when you are more sluggish.

Second, consider productivity sprints using the time management Pomodoro method, which has you working and taking scheduled breaks on a predictable cycle. If the work you’re engaged in during this time isn’t bringing you closer to your goal, or giving you the results you want, don’t stop trying or lose focus. Instead, us the time to brainstorm a different approach.

3) Reinforce your foundation.

The week the Nobel Prizes are announced, social media is in a frenzy showing the newly minted award winners going about their usual routine of teaching or writing grants in between press interviews. Despite all of their accolades, high achievers never rest on their laurels. Even if they’ve done a task or routine countless times, they still work on the basic skills foundational to their current — and future — success. It’s why NBA champion Kobe Bryant was famous for practicing the same warm-up routines you’d see in any junior high school gym.

Neal Katyal is another example. He argued 48 cases before the Supreme Court of the United States. He told me he still prepares a binder with answers to every possible question he might get asked, holds multiple moot courts, and wordsmiths his opening arguments so succinctly that his children can understand them.

In the military, people are similarly told to “train hard, fight easy.” It’s also the strategy marathon runners use when they train in high altitudes so that running the race in normal conditions feels easier.

What you can do:

Consider the “must-have” skills of your profession and imagine how you can brush up on them or learn to build on them. Instead of letting them get rusty, think about what it would take for you to get to the point where they are so effortless that you can rely on muscle memory to lead you under stress. Do you need more practice? Do you need to practice under challenging conditions? Both strategies will sharpen your abilities.

4) Become a lifelong learner.

The high achievers I spoke with are continuously open to learning, although it is rarely in the classroom. Discussions with mentors, colleagues, peers, and mentees, coupled with reading, observing others, watching videos, and listening to podcasts, all inform their deep reservoir of knowledge.

Christopher Wadell, for instance, grew up as an able-bodied skier until an accident one day left him without use of his lower body. He wanted to return to the slopes and first learned this was possible years earlier when he watched a cancer survivor with one leg on a monoski. That memory was embedded in his mind, and it pushed him to learn to ski in this new way. Today, Christopher Wadell is a decorated Paralympian. He’s won 13 medals, five of them gold.

Many of the Nobel Prize winners I spoke to were also inspired as a result of their openness and curiosity. Several shared that their breakthrough ideas occurred through casual conversations with colleagues in cafeterias and laundry rooms. Conference lectures, coffee breaks and group meals are not just for building your network. It’s where new ideas take root and develop.

What you can do:

To increase your knowledge base, which can lead to making connections others don’t yet see, immerse yourself with interesting people and open your mind up to new ideas. Surround yourself with a team of mentors who can offer you challenges and scaffolding to try new things. Consume new ideas in a platform of your choosing — reading books and articles, watching webinars, taking LinkedIn Learning courses, or listening to engaging conversations and interviews.. . .

People want to succeed, but there is a lack of understanding and discussion on how to achieve more, and more importantly, be motivated to do it. By learning the lessons from some of the most accomplished people of our generation, we can make average our beginning, not our end goal.

Read more on Managing yourself or related topics Continuous learningPersonal growth and transformation and Personal productivity

  • Ruth Gotian is the chief learning officer and assistant professor of education in anesthesiology at Weill Cornell Medicine in New York City and the author of The Success Factor. She was named the world’s #1 emerging management thinker by Thinkers50. You can access her free list of conversation starters.

 RuthGotian

https://hbr.org/2023/01/4-things-high-achievers-do-differently?utm_campaign=hbr&utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkedin