Category Archives: Daily Top Ten

Topley’s Top 10 – January 4, 2023

1.Q4-Vanguard International Stock Index +13% vs. S&P +7.4%

www.yahoofinance.com


2. Don’t Follow the Most Crowded Trades….Nov 2022 MOST CROWDED


3.Most Crowded Long Dollar Trade…….Dollar ETF Straight Down Since November …Breaks 50day then 200day


4. Second Most Crowded Short China….MSCI China ETF +40% Since November Low

www.stockcharts.com


5. Classic Behavioral Finance…China Big Rally After Record Outflows

Dave Lutz at Jones Trading International investors pulled about $7.9 billion from China’s equity markets in October through the Stock Connect program, the second-largest monthly drawdown in the history of the trading link – Outflows picked up in recent days as global investors reacted negatively to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s cementing of power with a third term as the country’s paramount leader, WSJ reports.


6. Last Count MicroStrategy Owned 130,0000 Bitcoins

MSTR was first stock to make big crypto bet with its cash…breaking thru Covid lows….$1300 to $141

MicroStrategy Price to Sales Ratio 2010-2022 | MSTR. 12x Sales to 3x Sales 2 years

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/MSTR/microstrategy/price-sale


7. Gold Rallied in December….Outperforming the Rest of Commodities.

Gold Vs. Commodity Index …50day thru 200day to upside.

www.stockcharts.com


8. U.S. GDP Survives Recessions and Keeps on Moving Higher

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/23/why-everyone-thinks-a-recession-is-coming-in-2023.html


9. EV Fleet Set to Reach 30% by 2035

Between 2030 and 2035, electric vehicles will make up 15% to 33% of the passenger vehicle fleet in Europe and the US, and EV charging will be truly mass market

Ryan Fisher

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-20/electric-vehicle-charging-investment-approaches-the-100-billion-mark?leadSource=uverify%20wall&sref=GGda9y2L


10. 3 Types of Soft Skills Employers Look for Today

Soft skills, like any other skills, can be mastered with enough practice.

KEY POINTS

  • When it comes to professionalism, employers look for someone who understands how their own actions affect the work as a whole.
  • Critical thinking requires a balance of keeping an open mind and seeking new solutions while mastering established best practices first.
  • Mastering the basics of teamwork is one of the best ways to set oneself apart as high-potential leadership material.

More and more employees these days are not used to conforming to the norms of the in-person workplace—nor do they necessarily think they should.

Following months, even years, of remote or hybrid work, many people do not realize how much “just doing their own thing” may make their attitude or behavior maladaptive in the office. Ironically, it is often those with the best technical skills who lack soft skills. Maybe they’ve gotten away with it for so long because they are so good at what they do. Maybe they think they are just not “good at” soft skills. Many more simply have no concept of the incredible power of the old-fashioned basics.

The good news is that soft skills, like any other skills, can be mastered with enough practice.

In a labor market where it is increasingly difficult to stand out based on technical expertise alone, what are the soft skills people would be wise to start building? After all, there are as many soft skills as there are definitions. These are the three top types of soft skills employers are looking for.

1. Professionalism

Professionalism is probably the most abstract of the types of soft skills, and certainly the most dependent on context. What professionalism means in one organization can be very different from what it means in another. In general, what most employers mean when they say they are looking for professionalism is someone who understands how they as an individual affect the work as a whole. That can mean anything from personal performance relative to broad standards, or how one’s behavior impacts the health of the team.

These are the most cited missing basics of professionalism:

·  Self-evaluation: Regularly assessing one’s own thoughts, words, and actions against clear meaningful standards; and one’s own performance against specific goals, timelines, guidelines, and parameters. 

·  Personal responsibility: Staying focused on what one can control directly—principally oneself—and controlling one’s responses in the face of factors outside one’s own control. 

·  Positive attitude: Maintaining and conveying a positive, generous, enthusiastic demeanor in one’s expressions, gestures, words, and tone. 

·  Good work habits: Wellness, self-presentation, timeliness, organization, productivity, quality, follow-through, and initiative. 

·  Interpersonal communication: Attentive listing, observing, and reading; perceiving and empathizing; effective use of words, tone, expressions, and gestures—verbal, written, and otherwise; one-on-one and in groups; in-person and remotely.

2. Critical thinking

Some people (and their managers) fall into the trap of believing their work doesn’t require critical thinking—to use the classic phrase, it’s not “knowledge work.” Whatever your job, knowledge work is not about what you do, but how you think about what you do. Some people understand this but end up reinventing the wheel. Critical thinking requires a balance of keeping an open mind and seeking new solutions while mastering established best practices first.

These are the core basics of critical thinking, no matter what type of work you do:

·  Proactive learning: Keeping an open mind, suspending judgment, questioning assumptions, and seeking out information, technique, and perspective; and studying, practicing, and contemplating to build one’s stored knowledge base, skill set, and wisdom

·  Problem-solving: Mastering established best practices—proven repeatable solutions for dealing with regular recurring decisions—to avoid reinventing the wheel. Using repeatable solutions to improvise when addressing decisions that are new but similar. 

·  Decision-making: Identifying and considering multiple options, assessing the pros and cons of each, and choosing the course of action closest to the desired outcome.

3. Teamwork

In today’s working environment of increasingly collaborative relationships, teamwork is a critical skill in every role in any organization. In fact, mastering these basics of teamwork is one of the best ways to set yourself apart as high-potential leadership material:

·  Appreciating context: Reading and adapting to the existing structure, rules, customs, and leadership in an unfamiliar situation. 

·  Citizenship: Accepting, embracing, and observing, not just the rights and rewards, but the duties of membership/belonging/participation in a defined group with its own structure, rules, customs, and leadership. 

·  Service: Approaching relationships in terms of what you have to offer—respect, commitment, hard work, creativity, sacrifice—rather than what you need or want.

·  Playing your position: Doing the part assigned (or relegated) to you to support the larger mission; coordinating, cooperating, and collaborating with others in pursuit of a shared goal; supporting and celebrating the success of others.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/navigating-the-new-workplace/202301/3-types-of-soft-skills-employers-look-for-today

Topley’s Top 10 – January 3, 2023

1. Asset Performance Summary Q4 vs. Full 2022

Jim Reid Deutsche Bank

2. Third Worst Year Ever for 60/40

Ben Carlson Blog

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2023/01/2022-was-one-of-the-worst-years-ever-for-markets/

3. Bull vs. Bear Market History

Mikko @Mikkelppolito Pessimists sound smart, optimists retire on beaches.

 

https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

4. Central Banks Bought 400 Tonnes of Gold by September 2022….More than Double the 10 Year Average

Wall Street Silver Twitter @WallStreetSilv

https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv

5. Consumer Discretionary Stock ETF -41% from Highs….Broke to New Lows Post Xmas

www.stockcharts.com

6. Covid Infects 37m in One Day China

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-23/china-estimates-covid-surge-is-infecting-37-million-people-a-day?leadSource=uverify%20wall&sref=GGda9y2L

7. Eli Lilly Weight Loss Drug Could Become the Best-Selling Drug of All Time

NBC News A new weight loss drug could become the best-selling drug of all time. Who can afford it?In 2023, the FDA will likely approve Eli Lilly’s diabetes drug tirzepatide for weight loss — but there’s little indication insurers will widely cover the medication.

By Berkeley Lovelace Jr.

An Eli Lilly drug if approved for weight loss could become the best-selling drug of all time, but concerns are mounting about who will actually be able to afford it.

Experts are confident that the drug, called tirzepatide, will be granted approval by the Food and Drug Administration sometime next year. If that’s the case, it would join two other popular — and expensive — recently approved weight loss drugs on the market, Wegovy and Saxenda, both from the drugmaker Novo Nordisk.

Annual sales of tirzepatide could hit a record $48 billion, according to an estimate from Bank of America analyst Geoff Meacham. Another Wall Street analyst, Colin Bristow at UBS, estimated the drug would reach $25 billion in annual sales — a figure that would still surpass the record $20.7 billion set by AbbVie’s rheumatoid arthritis drug Humira in 2021.

Kelly Smith, a spokesperson for Eli Lilly, declined to comment on what tirzepatide will cost. Outside experts said it is possible the drugmaker could price it similarly to Wegovy, which carries a list price of around $1,500 for a month’s supply, and Saxenda, which costs about $1,350 for a month’s supply.

If the FDA confirms the drug’s effectiveness, a “fair” price for tirzepatide could be around $13,000 annually, or around $1,100 a month, said Dr. David Rind, the chief medical officer for the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review, a research group that helps determine fair prices for drugs.

The drugs have been shown in clinical trials to be highly effective for weight loss. All three drugs — which are given as injections — work in a similar way: They’re a class of drugs called GLP-1 agonists, which mimic a hormone that helps reduce food intake and appetite.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/weight-loss-drug-affordability-rcna60422

LLY Chart Never Even Broke 50day 2021-2022

www.stockcharts.com

8. Honda Profits Fall a Record -33%

Japan’s Honda sees declining profits on semiconductor crunch by YURI KAGEYAMA

Honda Motor Co. cleans a Honda car displayed at its headquarters in Tokyo on July 31, 2018. Honda’s fiscal first quarter profit fell 33% from 2021 as a global computer chip shortage, a pandemic-related lockdown in China and the rising costs of raw materials hurt the Japanese automaker. Tokyo-based Honda Motor Co. reported Wednesday, Aug. 10, 2022, that its profit totaled 149.2 billion yen ($1.1 billion) in the April-June quarter, down from 222.5 billion yen ($1.7 billion) a year earlier. Quarterly sales slipped 7% to 3.8 trillion yen ($28 billion). Credit: AP Photo/Koji Sasahara, File

Honda’s fiscal first quarter profit fell 33% from last year as a global computer chip shortage, a pandemic-related lockdown in China and the rising costs of raw materials hurt the Japanese automaker.

Tokyo-based Honda Motor Co. reported Wednesday that its profittotaled 149.2 billion yen ($1.1 billion) in the April-June quarter, down from 222.5 billion yen ($1.7 billion) a year earlier. Quarterly sales slipped 7% to 3.8 trillion yen ($28 billion).

Honda kept its profit forecast for the full fiscal year through March 2023 unchanged at 710 billion yen ($5.3 billion).

The semiconductor shortage has hurt all the world’s automakers, including Honda, despite strong demand, and the manufacturers have been scrambling to secure alternative suppliers.

Honda, which makes the Accord sedan, Odyssey minivan and Civic compact, sold about 815,000 vehicles last quarter, down from 998,000 vehicles the same period a year earlier. Auto sales dropped in almost all regions around the world, including Japan, the U.S. and Europe.

“I ask for the understanding from all those who are still waiting for their vehicles and vow that our whole company is doing its utmost to make the deliveries even a day sooner,” Chief Financial Officer Kohei Takeuchi said.

Takeuchi said the semiconductor shortage curtailed motorcycle production as well as car production, adding to uncertainty about future prospects.

Honda said the recent lockdown in Shanghai was among the causes of the shortage in computer chips supply but declined to give specifics.

Although U.S. sales are potentially facing a dent from recession worries and other economic hardships, Takeuchi acknowledged he was more worried about the shortage problem and producing the cars customers were waiting for.

Takeuchi noted that motorcycle sales for the quarter, which grew to 4.25 million motorcycles from 3.88 million a year earlier, were going strong, especially in India. The cheaper yen and cost cuts helped maintain profitability overall, he added.

https://techxplore.com/news/2022-08-japan-honda-declining-profits-semiconductor.html

9. Keeping it Simple for Millennials with Peter Mallouk

10. Small Choices in 2023

Farnam Street Blog Small Habits Make a Big Difference-When we watch people make small choices, like ordering a salad at lunch instead of a burger, the difference of a few hundred calories doesn’t seem to matter much. At the moment, that’s true. These small decisions don’t matter all that much. However, as days turn to weeks and weeks to months and months to years, those tiny repeatable choices compound. Consider another example, saving a little money right now won’t make you a millionaire tomorrow. But starting to save today makes it more likely you will become a millionaire in the future.

https://fs.blog

Topley’s Top 10 – December 29, 2022

1.Sector Leadership 2010-2022

Dorsey Wright

https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright


2. Natural Gas Futures in Europe Plunge 77% from Crazy Spike

by Wolf Richter  Record supply of LNG from the US and other sources. Record supply from Norway via pipeline. Conservation, power production shift… It adds up.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

The price of natural gas futures in Europe continues to plunge off its crazy spike last summer. Dutch front-month TTF Natural Gas Futures – a benchmark for northwest Europe – traded today at €82 per megawatt-hour (MWh), down by 77% from the high on August 26, and back to where it had first been in September 2021 (data via Investing.com).

Demographic Trends: Here’s a look at fertility rates in advanced economies.

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/12/28/natural-gas-futures-in-europe-plunge-77-from-crazy-spike-storage-in-the-eu-above-5-year-average-in-germany-87-full/


3. Yields Tend to Fall After Steep Increases

LPL Research

https://lplresearch.com/2022/12/27/history-says-10-year-treasury-yield-more-likely-to-fall/


4. Investing Prior to Final Rate Hike

Capital Group

https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/pdf/shareholder/MFCPBR-090-1031015.pdf?sfid=1988901890&cid=80904210&et_cid=80904210&cgsrc=SFMC&alias=A-btn-LP-2-CISynCTA


5. The Famous Telsa Chart Finally Faced Reality…

Tesla Enterprise Value Greater than All Global Automakers Combined with 1/10th EBITA –

Irrelevant Investor Blog

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2022/12/28/animal-spirits-the-tesla-crash/


6. Fertility Slump in U.S.

Source: The Aspen Institute Economic Strategy Group Read full article

The US fertility rate remains below the replacement level.

Source: @jeffsparshott, @greg_ip

https://dailyshotbrief.com/


7. Annual Installations of Collaborative Robots Doubles Since 2019…Less People=More Robots

Barrons “Postpandemic, there are a lot of jobs that people have decided they don’t want to do,” says Jeff Burnstein, president of the Association for Advancing Automation, an industry trade group.  

Robots appear to be getting a pandemic lift. Global sales hit a record $15.5 billion in 2021 and are on track to grow 10% this year, to around $17 billion, according to the International Federation of Robotics, a trade group. More than 517,000 robotic units were installed globally in 2021, 31% above 2020’s total. Worldwide sales of robotic units will top 600,000 this year, the trade group estimates. 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/robot-jobs-51671667349?mod=past_editions


8. Retail Theft More than Doubles Post Pandemic

WSJ Although shrink is a perennial problem in retail, it really took off when the pandemic hit. In the five years leading up to 2019, retail shrink grew at a compound annual growth rate of roughly 7%, according to data from the NRF. In 2020, it jumped 47%, and rose another 4% on top of that huge jump in 2021. Some retailers, including Ulta Beauty and Target, have said that shrink has gotten worse again this year. “When times get tough, shrink goes up,” Ulta Beauty Chief Financial Officer Scott Settersten said on the company’s earnings call on Dec. 1. We’ve seen that in retail over a long period of time.” 

By Jinjoo Lee  https://www.wsj.com/articles/shoplifting-stores-problem-11671737792


9. All Cancelled Flights are Southwest

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/27/business/southwest-airlines-service-meltdown/index.html


10. Stop complaining, says billionaire investor Charlie Munger: ‘Everybody’s five times better off than they used to be’

Tom Huddleston Jr.

Charles Munger at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting in Omaha, Nebraska, April 29, 2022.

David A. Grogan | CNBC

Billionaire Charlie Munger thinks we should all be a lot happier.

Munger, the longtime investment partner and friend of fellow billionaire Warren Buffett, says he doesn’t understand why people today aren’t more content with what they have, especially compared to harder times throughout history.

“People are less happy about the state of affairs than they were when things were way tougher,” Munger said earlier this year at the annual meeting of the Daily Journal, the newspaper company where he’s a director.

The 98-year-old noted that he came of age in the 1930s, when Americans everywhere were struggling: “It’s weird for somebody my age, because I was in the middle of the Great Depression when the hardship was unbelievable.”

During that annual meeting, Munger complained that envy is a driving factor for too many people today. Before the early 1800s, there were thousands of years where “life was pretty brutal, short, limited and what have you. [There was] no printing press, no air conditioning, no modern medicine,” he said.

If nothing else, Munger’s sense of widespread envy in today’s world might be right on the money: Recent studies show that roughly 75% of people are envious of someone else in any given year. over 60% upside, analysts say

Social media sites like Facebook, Instagram and Twitter are especially effective at sparking feelings of envy or jealousy, often connecting us with people who only offer highly curated peeks into the positive developments in their lives.

At the meeting, Munger pointed to the work of Harvard psychologist Steven Pinker, who has argued that the quality of life around the world has improved dramatically over the past century or two, citing evidence such as longer life expectancies and reduced global poverty.

Critics of Pinker’s work say his views are overly simplified and ignorant of negative aspects of modern life, from growing wealth inequality to the ongoing existence of violence and political instability — factors that can still cause real suffering.

In 2019, Munger downplayed the effects of wealth and income inequality, and claimed that the politicians who were “screaming about it are idiots.”

Some politicians, like Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, have called for tax increases on the ultra-wealthy in recent years. Munger and his estimated net worth of $2.2 billion would likely be subject to those increases.

The billionaire has expressed skepticism about higher taxes on the wealthy in the past, even arguing last year that some inequality is a necessary aspect of a free market economy. At the Daily Journal’s annual meeting this year, he added that most people’s concerns over wealth inequality and criticisms of the extremely wealthy were “motivated” by envy.

“I can’t change the fact that a lot of people are very unhappy and feel very abused after everything’s improved by about 600%, because there’s still somebody else who has more,” Munger said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/27/charlie-munger-stop-complaining-about-wealth-inequality-life-quality.html

 

Topley’s Top 10 – December 28, 2022

1. Tesla Buyers 5x More Common in Democratic Counties

From Barry Ritholtz Blog The table above contains the top 10 and bottom 10 Trump-voting NY counties in the 2020 election, showing the percentage of Trump voters, the population, the number of TSLA registrations, and critically, TSLA registrations per 10k population. The result:.  Adjusted for population, Teslas are ~5x more common in heavily Democratic counties than they are in heavily Republican counties. https://ritholtz.com/2022/12/owning-the-libs/

Tesla Breaks 2020 Lows


2. Top Holdings for Retail Investors …Average Investors Buying Tech on Way Down

https://www.linkedin.com/in/val%C3%A9rie-no%C3%ABl-2530228a/


3. Big Tech Market Cap Bigger than Central Bank Balance Sheets

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathanbaird88/


4. New Bankruptcy Filings…Nothing Yet

Tavi Costa Crescat Capital

@TaviCosta


5. ROKU…$500 to $39

www.stockcharts.com


6. Consumer Discretionary Sector Has Given Up All Its Gains Since May 2020

Liz Ann Sonders Schwab

https://www.linkedin.com/in/lizannsounders/


7. Largest Pharma Companies in World


8. Housing Permits Fall 30%….1.9M to 1.35m

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PERMIT


9. Percentage of Home Sellers Changing Listing to Rental.

John Burns Real Estate

@RickPalaciosJr

https://twitter.com/RickPalaciosJr


10. Year-end moves for your financial strategy

Amy Theisen

Share:Investors have seen ups (inflation and interest rates), downs (stock and bond prices), twists and turns this year. One lesson from 2022 is that it’s important to focus on what you can control. This year-end checklist highlights actions you can take to help keep your financial strategy on track.

1. Review your goals and personal situation

  • Self-assessment – As you prepare for 2023, take the time to reflect on the year. Have your goals changed this year? Have your expenses increased with rising inflation? Talk with your financial advisor to ensure your plan captures your current goals, accurate expenses and appropriate time horizon.
  • Your comfort with risk – It can be easy to want to take more risk when markets are relatively calm, but shy away from it when markets decline, like we have seen this year. But it is important to ensure you’re taking the appropriate amount of risk to achieve your goals.
  • Your plan for the unexpected – A key part of planning is to plan for the unexpected, which can become much more valuable during volatile market and economic times. Review your insurance coverage and spending. Also, take a look at your emergency cash; we recommend having the equivalent of three to six months’ worth of living expenses on hand.
  • Beneficiaries, estate plan and insurance checkup – Do your beneficiary designations and estate plan still match your intentions? Generally, beneficiary designations on IRAs, 401(k) accounts and insurance policies supersede your will, so it’s important to align your beneficiaries with your estate strategy.

2. Make progress toward your goals while minimizing taxes

  • Retirement plan contributions – Don’t let the current market environment distract you from making progress toward your long-term goals. Consider maxing out on contributions to your retirement plan, health savings account (HSA) and IRA for 2022, including any catch-up provisions. If you’re not eligible to make a Roth IRA contribution or for a tax deduction on your traditional IRA contribution, consider a backdoor Roth contribution. A backdoor Roth contribution is when you make a nondeductible contribution to a traditional IRA and convert it to a Roth IRA. This strategy generally works best when you have little to no traditional IRA assets.
  • Roth conversions – If you’re in a lower tax bracket in 2022 or you want to take advantage of lower market values, discuss with your tax advisor if paying taxes today to convert some or all your IRA to a Roth IRA could help your long-term retirement strategy. This strategy could be particularly timely in years where we have seen declines, such as this one.
  • Required minimum distributions (RMDs) – Generally, anyone age 72 or older in 2022 must take an RMD from their retirement account by year-end to avoid the 50% penalty. If you turned 72 in 2022, you have until April 1, 2023, to do so; anyone age 73 or older must take their RMD by year-end. If you inherited an IRA, you may also need to take an RMD by year-end.
  • 529 plans – A 529 plan can help you pay for education expenses and possibly provide a state income tax deduction. Review your education funding goals to see if a 529 plan contribution is appropriate.
  • COVID-19-related distributions – If you took a COVID-19-related distribution (CRD) from a retirement account in 2020, you can return that money to an eligible retirement account for up to three years from the day after the CRD was received. Repayments of CRDs do not count toward the regular contribution limits. Work with your financial advisor to outline a strategy to repay these funds to your retirement account.

3. Give your portfolio a checkup

  • Portfolio balance – Your portfolio’s allocation was developed purposefully based on your long-term goals. Elevated volatility in both equity and fixed-income markets in 2022 might have caused your portfolio to drift from your intended asset allocation. Your financial advisor can help you rebalance if needed.
  • Portfolio positioning – Lingering inflation pressures, the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes and geopolitical uncertainty have contributed to driving bond yields higher and pushed equities into a bear market in 2022. Yet we believe a large amount of monetary tightening has already been priced in at a time when inflation may well have peaked. While increased volatility is likely to continue in 2023, the pullback in prices in both bonds and stocks has improved the future long-term return outlook in our view.
  • Asset class diversification – As the market’s focus swings between near-term uncertainties and longer-term opportunities, we expect leadership among asset classes and sectors to rotate, which means diversification remains critical. In addition to U.S. large-cap equities, enhance diversification with additional domestic and international asset classes. Defensive sectors have outperformed, but exposure to economically sensitive sectors can help position portfolios for a potential recovery. Appropriate allocation to bonds can help provide income and smooth out returns in times of equity volatility. Your financial advisor can discuss appropriate diversification based on your goals and comfort with risk.
  • Tax-loss harvesting – Losses within equities and bonds this year could be captured via tax loss harvesting and bond swaps. Recognizing capital losses can help lower your tax liability. Or if you’re in a lower tax bracket this year, it might be a good time to realize gains. Due to market volatility, some mutual funds may have rebalanced their portfolios, creating unexpected capital gain distributions that you may want to avoid. Work with your financial advisor and tax professional to review your situation and determine which strategies are right for you.

Before the curtain closes on 2022, talk with your financial advisor about these and other strategies that may help you stay in control of your strategy toward achieving your important long-term goals.

4. Maximize your impact

  • Charitable contributions – Since the standard deduction amount has increased, fewer individuals are itemizing their deductions. Consider “bunching” two or three years of charitable deduction to enable you to itemize deductions and potentially reduce your tax liability.
  • Annual gifts – You can make a $16,000 gift per person per year without incurring gift tax.
  • Gifting to loved ones or charity – If you’re planning to make a large gift in the next few years, speak with your estate attorney regarding the timing of the gift. The current estate tax exemption of $12.06 million per individual is scheduled to sunset at the end of 2025. After 2025, the exemption will be decreased by approximately 50%. It may seem counterintuitive, but when you are looking to reduce the size of your estate through large gifts, it can be advantageous to execute transfers of assets when markets are depressed to minimize the use of your estate tax exemption.

Amy Theisen

Amy Theisen is the Senior Strategist for the firm’s Estate and Legacy guidance. She is a member of the firm’s Investment Policy Committee Client Needs Working Group, which oversees the financial planning and advice for the U.S.

Amy has a master’s degree in accounting with a taxation focus from the University of Kansas.

 

Topley’s Top 10 – December 27, 2022

1. How Did 2022’s Most Loved Stocks by Analysts Fare?

Bespoke Investment Group As we approach year end, today we looked at where analyst ratings stood for Russell 1,000 stocks at the end of 2021 to see how the most loved stocks at the start of the year ended up performing.  Looking at just stocks with coverage from at least eight analysts, the average Russell 1,000 stock had about 59% buy ratings at the start of 2022.

Sixty-three Russell 1,000 stocks began the year with at least 90% buy ratings, while 52 stocks had less than 20% buy ratings.  Those 52 stocks with less than 20% buy ratings are currently down an average of 10.7% YTD on a total return basis.  The 63 stocks with 90%+ buy ratings are down an average of 22.8%.

The 38 stocks below had at least 92% buy ratings at the start of 2022.  Of these 38, the 24 with 100% buy ratings are down an average of 32% YTD.  The biggest of the “100% buy” stocks is Amazon (AMZN).  At the start of 2022, all 59 analysts covering the name had a buy rating.  It’s down just under 50% YTD as of this morning.  Two of the 24 stocks with all buy ratings on 12/31/21 posted gains this year: Encompass Health (EHC) and Horizon Therapeutics (HZNP).  That’s a “batting average” of under .100 with roughly 28% of Russell 1,000 stocks in the green on the year.  Click here to learn more about Bespoke’s premium stock market research service.

As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/how-did-2022s-most-loved-stocks-by-analysts-fare


2. Euro Natural Gas Prices Continue to Fall Even as Cold Front Hits

The Daily Shot Blog

https://dailyshotbrief.com/


3. China FXI Large Cap ETF …Covid Lockdown Over

FXI…Right on 200 day ….50 day turning upwards

www.stockcharts.com


4. Tesla Market Cap….$1.2 Trillion to $388B

From Abnormal Returns Blog www.abnormalreturns.com


5. Silvergate-The Crypto Bank Roundtrip to Covid Levels

www.stockcharts.com


6. The Number of U.S. Children Below the Poverty Line -59% Since 1993

NYT Deal Book Real progress is being made in tackling child poverty. The number of children in America living below the poverty line has plummeted by 59 percent since 1993. As The Times’s Jason DeParle reported in September, “child poverty has fallen in every state, and it has fallen by about the same degree among children who are white, Black, Hispanic and Asian, living with one parent or two, and in native or immigrant households.” The improvements coincide with more generous state and federal subsidies for working families, and changes to welfare laws that make it easier for struggling households to apply for assistance programs.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/24/business/dealbook/optimisim-in-2023.html

https://www.aei.org/articles/child-poverty-in-the-us-is-at-an-all-time-low-and-saying-otherwise-does-not-help-american-families/


7. Majority of Americans Think Social Media Bad for Democracy

Pew Research

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/12/13/striking-findings-from-2022/


8. A nutritionist shares the best snacks to bring on a plane to boost your immune system-CNBC

Monica Pitrelli@MONICAPITRELLI

Travelers have a host of pathogens to dodge this winter, including the “tripledemic” of infections caused by Covid-19, flu and RSV (respiratory syncytial virus).

But there are steps people can take to reduce their chances of getting sick, say health specialists at Spain’s SHA Wellness Clinic.

The key is to develop “a resilient immune system that can defend itself from attack by viruses and bacteria,” said Dr. Vicente Mera, SHA’s head of genomic medicine.

What to eat

“The most important thing is nutrition,” Mera said.

But drastic dieting isn’t necessary, he added.Rather, travelers can simply eat whole, plant-based foods, which can help decrease inflammation, he said.

Fiber in plant-based foods also helps the gut microbiome “fight pathogens that enter or are activated through the digestive tract,” he said.

Eating a nutrient-dense diet is the top recommendation from Melanie Waxman, an integrative nutrition specialist and eating coach at SHA Wellness Clinic.

That means eating “lots of vegetables, whole grains, fresh herbs, beans, sea vegetables, fruits, nuts, seeds and fermented foods,” she said.

What to pack on a plane

Waxman said travelers should snack on alkaline foods to combat acidity that is commonly caused by air travel. She recommended these easy-to-pack foods:

  • Toasted nori snacks: ”Great for travelling as they are light and easy to carry in small packs. Nori is alkaline and provides a good source of vitamin C, as well as omega-3 fatty acids, protein and minerals.”
  • Instant miso soup: “Contains all the essential amino acids … and restores beneficial probiotics to the intestines … great for flights and in hotel rooms as you only need to add boiling water to the sachet.”
  • Spirulina powder:“Packed with calcium and protein. It has a high chlorophyll content … is especially beneficial after spending hours in airplane cabins. The flavor can be strong so add it to a refreshing vegetable juice … [or take] as a capsule.”  
  • Plum balls:“A wonderful travel companion, as they are extremely alkaline, full of minerals that help increase energy, aid digestion, boost immunity and improve liver functions … the balls come in a container and are easy to pack in a cabin bag.”

Breakfast

Waxman recommends drinking one tablespoon of apple cider vinegar mixed with a glass of water before breakfast. The vinegar is “a powerful immune booster … full of probiotics,” she said.

For breakfast, a “wonderful” choice is oatmealtopped with berries, chia seeds and flax seeds, she said.

“Oats actually help the body produce melatonin more naturally,” she said. “Oats contain amino acids, potassium, B vitamins, magnesium and complex carbs … berries pack a punch of vitamin C, and the seeds provide extra omega-3 and protein.”

Jet lag

To combat jet lag, Waxman recommends taking more vitamin C.

She recommends eating sauerkraut, both before and after flying. “Fermenting cabbage causes the vitamin C and antioxidant levels to skyrocket,” she said.

Fresh vegetable juice is also great for immunity and jet lag recovery, she said.

Getting enough sleep

Sleep and immunity are closely linked, Mera said.  

“Restful sleep strengthens nature immunity,” he said, adding that poor quality, or quantity, of sleep increases the chances of falling sick.

People who average less than six hours of sleep a night, or 40 hours per week, have “a serious risk of illness,” he said.

Exercise — but don’t overdo it

Moderate exercise strengthens the immune system, Mera said.

But “30 minutes a day is more than enough,” he said. “Prolonged intense exercise can suppress the immune system.”

Examples of beneficial exercise include running, walking, swimming and cycling, he said.

Supplements, for some

Studies indicate that certain supplements — such as vitamin C, vitamin D, zinc, garlic, echinacea and green tea — may strengthen the body’s immune response, Mera said.

But, he said, they’re not necessary for everyone.

“It only compensates for nutrient deficiencies, which usually occur when nutrition is inadequate, or the immune system is very depressed,” he said.

Other recommendations

To strengthen the immune system, Waxman also suggests Epsom salt baths (“magnesium is easily absorbed through the skin”), using essential oils (“especially lavender, eucalyptus or tree tree oil”), drinking plenty of water and cutting back on alcohol, caffeine and sugar.

Mera added that relieving stress and anxiety is critical to immune health. He recommends meditation, yoga, tai chi and mindfulness to better manage emotions.

Philippa Harvey, head of SHA’s traditional Chinese medicine department, said travelers should start taking steps to strengthen their immune systems about a week before traveling.

“In TCM when someone is healthy and happy we say they have good qi, pronounced ‘chee’” she said.

She recommends eating foods that are in season, especially garlic and ginger in the autumn and winter.

She also recommends exercise and acupressure to stay healthy.

“Before we travel, a nice brisk walk in fresh air is the simplest solution,” she said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/26/how-not-to-get-sick-on-a-plane-pack-these-snacks-says-nutritionist.html


9. Labor Intensity of S&P 500 Down -70% Since 1980

CallumThoma Chart Storm S&P500 Labor Intensity: “In 1986, it took 8 employees to generate US$1 million in revenue. Today, the S&P 500 is 70% less labor intensive than it was in the 80s”

Source: @ISABELNET_SA (ChartStorm 20 June 2021)

https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-24-december


10. 5 Things to Make You Smarter -Eric Barker

We can’t improve our genetics but a lot of our mediocrity is self-imposed. There are a number of prescription-strength things we can do to make sure we’re firing on all cylinders and making the best of what we have. We can’t do much to become dramatically smarter but we can do a lot to be less dumb.

Alright, it’s time to lift the zoning restrictions on your brain. Let’s get to it…

Get Your Sleep


I know, I know – that sounds obvious. But as Christopher Hitchens wrote, “Ah, please never forget how useful the obvious can be.” Because as obvious as it may sound, we just don’t do it. UC Berkeley sleep researcher Matthew Walker reports, “Two-thirds of adults throughout all developed nations fail to obtain the recommended eight hours of nightly sleep.”

Getting enough sleep is a cognitive cheat code. Meanwhile, sleep deprivation knocks the intellectual right out of you. Educational studies show missing an hour of sleep turns a sixth grader’s brain into that of a fourth grader. There’s actually a clear correlation between sleep and grades: “Teens who received A’s averaged about fifteen more minutes sleep than the B students, who in turn averaged fifteen more minutes than the C’s, and so on.”

And the old maxim “sleep on it” is true. You do make better decisions after a good night’s rest.

Well, I don’t get enough sleep, but I feel fine…

That is the slumber equivalent of a drunk saying, ‘Gimme the keys. I’m okay to drive.” In studies, sleep-deprived people consistently underestimate how impaired they are: “after just a few days, the four- and six-hour group reported that, yes, they were slightly sleepy. But they insisted they had adjusted to their new state. Even 14 days into the study, they said sleepiness was not affecting them. In fact, their performance had tanked.”

But isn’t there an easy magic pill?

Well, kinda: coffee and cigarettes. Caffeine and nicotine both boost brainpower, temporarily. (This must be how Cinderella felt.) But they’re a double-edged sword. Cigarettes, obviously, are mucho bad for your health. And while moderate amounts of caffeine are healthy, it can seriously monkey with your ability to sleep. (I am not a caffeine addict. I prefer the word “enthusiast.”) We think that college students who like to party get worse grades because of drinking, but studies show the majority of negative impact comes from daytime drowsiness due to caffeine and poor sleep.

So what else can we do to be less dumb?

Get Your Exercise


Believe it or not, your brain is part of your body. And what’s good for your body is good for your brain. Here’s a sentence for you: “Scientifically, on the current evidence, exercise is the best way to enhance your cognitive function.”

When you exercise it boosts BDNF (brain-derived neurotrophic factor) which helps you learn faster. How much faster? As much as 20%. In fact, cognitive control is measurably better after just a single exercise session.

And if you want to hold on to those precious IQ points as you age, there’s this: “An analysis of sixteen prospective studies including more than 160,000 individuals found that moderate levels of physical activity lowered the risk of Alzheimer’s by 45 percent.”

“Dumb jocks” aren’t looking so dumb anymore. So taking care of your body with sleep and exercise is important, but we can also stay smart by improving what we do with that gray matter…

Stay Calm


Your car can have the most powerful engine in the world, but if someone else grabs the wheel, you’re not going to get where you wanna go. Impulsive feelings can lasso you and hogtie your judgment. Even if you have a high IQ, if you’re caught in a Pigpen cloud of emotion, you’re going to make bad decisions. It’ll be puberty redux.

Staying calm is the séance that precedes the exorcism. Scientists refer to it as “arousal control.” How do we stay chill? When you start to get stressed, relax yourself with deep breaths. Teaching recruits to monitor their breathing helped increase Navy SEAL passing rates from 25 to 33 percent. They didn’t freak out, screw up or quit.

Whenever you know you have something challenging coming up, take the time to prepare. A feeling of control reduces stress and keeps our thinking clear. Sounds simple but it’s powerful. When I interviewed someone who defuses bombs for a living, what did he say was vital for staying calm and making the right decision? Always knowing what you need to do next and focusing on that.

Like I said, IQ isn’t everything. It’s great for simple straightforward decisions, but with complex decisions rational IQ-style thinking can backfire. With complex decisions the research shows going with your gut can often be the better choice. And if you’re an expert at something, definitely go with your gut.

Emotions can be useful. To make smart decisions we need to listen to them – but not be controlled by them.

Still with me or are you checking text messages? That raises another issue…


Focus


The internet is half enlightenment engine, half dehydrated concentrate of stupidity. Spend too much time on social media (the epicenter of modern tantrum culture) and you will end up theatrically troubled. It feels like your brain is having trash shoveled into it. What else has such a capacity to make us both simultaneously exhausted and overstimulated?

Neuroscience conclusively shows your brain can’t multitask. Yes, you may think you’re good at it but just like sleep, this is an area where you shouldn’t trust your perceptions. Shifting between tasks is not seamless for your brain. Your focus and attention take a hit every time you switch. Constantly bouncing around between tasks produces the equivalent of a 10-point IQ drop.

Meanwhile, what does research show the most productive computer programmers have in common? An environment free from distraction. So when you want to be at your best, silence your phone and distance yourself from all those attention burglars. “Batch” all email checking, texting, and social media into pre-designated times. Then turn off notifications. This allows your brain to hum at full capacity and increases the secretion of elbow grease to get good work done.

But what’s the most powerful and easiest way to get smarter? Well, it’s not even about you…
 

Ask For That Thing Called “Help”


Handling every challenge in life by yourself builds character (mostly through nightmares). Your education isn’t complete until you’ve learned to take a hint. When you’re unsure, get help.

You’re not in middle school anymore where getting someone else’s answers is called cheating. You can’t learn the smartest way to handle everything on your own. Ask for advice.

People are busy. They don’t wanna help me.

Wrong-amundo. The research says: “people underestimated by as much as 50% the likelihood that others would agree to a direct request for help…”

Fine, but they’ll be irritated and think I’m stupid.

No, that perspective is stupid. Wharton professor Adam Grant finds: “research shows that people who regularly seek advice and help from knowledgeable colleagues are actually rated more favorably by supervisors than those who never seek advice and help.”

Know what’s even better than just occasionally asking for help? Find a mentor. But does needing someone to guide you mean you’re not a genius? Quite likely the opposite…

For his book Creativity, Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi interviewed over 91 of the most brilliant people in the world (including 14 Nobel prize winners). What did they have in common? By the time they were college age, almost every one of those earthshakers had an important mentor.” (To learn the best way to select and get a mentor click here.)

Okay, time to round it all up and learn the good news about the bad news regarding what happens to your smarts as you age…

Sum Up-Here’s how to get smarter:

  • Get Your Sleep: As a hard-working blogger and author, I assure you that the fact I sometimes get only 5-6 hours of sleep a night is the fine good for think when importantly function productive.
  • Get Your Exercise: What helps your body helps your brain. (If you’re the one person reading this who has friends insisting “You really need to exercise less to improve your health!” then feel free to ignore this.)
  • Stay Calm: We’re grown-ups – but often only theoretically. Impulsivity is considered a negative in research studies and on witness stands. Increase calm to increase smart judgment.
  • Focus: Things are rarely so bad that distractions can’t make them worse. You do not need the latest cultural software update from social media. I know singletasking sounds like something only elderly people do, like pinochle or saving money, but give it a try.
  • Get Help: Pre-masticated knowledge is often the best kind. That’s why you’re reading this. Ask for advice. Become the chimeric blend of the smartest people around you.

Do we become less intelligent as we age? The scientific answer is: yes and no.

The research shows there are two kinds of intelligence: fluid and crystallized. Fluid intelligence is raw processing power. Figuring things out with no knowledge. Crystallized intelligence is closer to expertise, based more on prior learning and information.

Fluid intelligence declines rapidly as we get older. In fact, it begins dropping at around age 25. Yeesh. But crystallized intelligence doesn’t even peak until age 60. It’s well known that top mathematicians and physicists do their best work in the first half of life. Meanwhile, great authors usually create their masterworks in the second half. (Fingers crossed.)

So as you age, focus on building skills and knowledge. Your processor may not be as fast but you can make up for it with a bigger hard drive. Become an expert at something deep and rich that you’re passionate about — and keep learning. You may not be as sharp as the young whippersnappers but if you focus on gaining more information about your field they won’t be able to keep up with you.

IQ isn’t everything. It’s just a measure of potential. It’s what you do with what you have that really matters. And, as P.J. O’ Rourke noted, maybe it’s a good thing we’re not John von Neumann:

“Smart people don’t start many bar fights. But stupid people don’t build many hydrogen bombs.”

https://bakadesuyo.com/blog/