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The United States: The futures-implied Fed Funds rate hike probability for this month rose to 94%.
Source: @GregDaco, @WSJ, @JoshZumbrun; Read full article
The images below show a bell curve and bar chart of the SPX returns for the remainder of the year (March – December) when both January and February returns were positive. As we can see from both images, the market tends to finish in positive territory for the remainder of the year as well, though there are a few exceptions. Here are some statistics from our findings:
· During the years where January and February were both positive the combined months average return was 7.40% (out of 33 occurrences). In 2017, the SPX was up 5.57% from 12/30/2016 to 2/28/2017.
· The remainder of the year (March – December) the SPX was up an average of 7.37%.
· Out of the 33 occurrences, 28 occurrences were positive (84.85%) and 5 were negative (15.15%).
· Average return for just the 28 positive occurrences was 14.01%.
· Of the five negative occurrences, three of them date back to the 1930’s. The two other negative occurrences were 1987, which saw the SPX fall -13.06% from March thru December (largely due to the October crash), and 2011, when the SPX finished down -5.24% from March to December.
From Dorsey Wright
March is known for many things, from spring training, to the NCAA tournament, to spring flowers, to consistent equity gains? That’s right, over the past 10 years, there hasn’t been a month for the S&P 500 with a higher average monthly return than March.
“When the first two months of the year have been higher, March has closed higher 19 of 26 times (73.1%) and has been up an average of 1.4%” – “The S&P 500 is set to close up four consecutive months once February is in the books. When the S&P 500 has been up four or more months heading into March, then March actually has become stronger, as since 1950, it has closed higher 11 of 13 times (84.6%) with an average return of 2.3%.” noted LPL
Thanks to Dave Lutz at Jones for Chart.