1. American Resilience ….We are Creating a Record Number of Businesses
Torsten Slok Apollo About 450,000 new businesses have opened every month since the onset of covid-19, which is 50% higher than in 2019, when the number of new businesses opening every month was 300,000, see the first chart below.
The main sectors with significant growth in the number of firms are retail trade, professional services, and construction, see the second chart. Within the retail sector, online shopping accounted for 70 percent of all applications in 2020.
The bottom line is that the US economy was already the most competitive and dynamic economy in the world, and the level of entrepreneurship and innovation has increased further during the pandemic.
2. Private Equity is Buying a Record Amount of Small Founder Owned Businesses
Bloomberg By Michael Sasso https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-12/why-private-equity-is-chasing-plumbers-and-lumber-yards?sref=GGda9y2L
3. Air Travel Surpasses Pre-Pandemic Levels
Financial Times
4. JETS Airline ETF
Closes above 200-week moving average….But still 30% below previous highs.
5. Volatility Seasonality
Top Down Charts ‘Tis the Season to be Volly: Indeed, the seasonal tendency is for higher volatility around this time of the year; climaxing around October. With sentiment increasingly frothy, valuations back to expensive levels, and still murky macro, the path higher may not be as smooth or simple as it seems.
Source: @topdowncharts Topdown Charts
6. Senior Employees Prefer Work from Home
WSJ
WSJ By
7. American Poll of Overpaid Professions
Chartr.com
Over-earning
The Wall Street Journal recently reported that NBA stars are now more likely to take home $30 million+ pay packets than CEOs at S&P 500 companies. A recent YouGov survey, however, found that the American public doesn’t think either party is particularly deserving of the money they’re currently netting.
Indeed, pro athletes actually drew level with politicians — senators and representatives take home at least $174,000 a year in compensation — in the rankings for the most overpaid positions in the US, with a whopping 78% of respondents saying the professions are “very or somewhat overpaid”. CEOs can rest easy knowing only 76% of people think the same about them.
Poll positions
The YouGov poll asked 3,000 Americans to rank 30 professions on 3 criteria: the occupations’ impact, the perceived happiness of those working the job, and how overpaid/underpaid they think the vocation is. Interestingly, four of the top five “overpaid” positions also appeared in another unflattering tier, with lawyers, investment bankers, CEOs, and politicians all top occupations that Americans deem to have a “very or somewhat negative impact”.
On the other hand, the opposite end of the pay scale was a completely different story. Indeed, the “most underpaid” profession, farming, was ranked as the occupation with the most positive impact on society. 68% of Americans think farmers are “very or somewhat underpaid” — a matched proportion said the same of restaurant workers.
Go deeper: Explore how all 30 professions perform on the different metrics here.
8. 35% of Single Family Homes for Sale are New Construction
WSJ
https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-home-sales-boom-builders-6c736630?mod=itp_wsj&ru=yahoo
9. One Thing Republicans and Democrats Agree On….Made in America
Found at Zero Hedge Blog
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/does-made-america-still-matter-consumers
10. To Be Happy, Think Like an Old Person
Loren A. Olson M.D. Psychology Today
As we age, we lose people and bodily functions, but we’re happier.
KEY POINTS
- Older people are happier than middle-aged and younger people.
- Anxiety, depression, and anger decrease with advancing age.
- Old people are a reservoir of wisdom and experience and make a valuable contribution to the workforce.
- As we age, our time horizons grow shorter and our goals change.
It’s counterintuitive that old people can be happier. As we move closer to death, we become invisible and are considered a drain on the economy.
When I turned 60, all I saw ahead of me was decline. Then I met a man who said, “I’m 82 and this is the best time in my life.” I wondered, What does he know that I needed to learn?
Laura Carstenson studies aging and happiness. She found older people are happier than middle-aged and younger people.1 Many researchers have replicated her findings.
Changing demographics
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, since 2010 the 65-and-older population has increased by 34 percent.2 It reported that over the last decade, the growth of the “non-working-age, dependent” population has outpaced the growth of the working-age population.
I object to the characterization of this population as “non-working” and “dependent.” Adults aged 65 and older are twice as likely to be working today compared with 1985. Many of them are making good money.3 More than 20 percent of adults over age 65 are either working or looking for work. The Census Bureau paints a picture of a smaller group of young people caring for helpless old people. Politicians have taken note as they threaten to raise the age for Social Security.
Old people are a reservoir of wisdom and experience. They may work at a slower pace but they are a valuable contribution to the workforce. Old people are a resource that can solve some of the problems of workforce shortage.
An encore job gives life meaning. I’m now 80 years old and I work. Work gives my life meaning. I wrote two books after I turned 65. I am not dependent! Of course, how much education we have and what type of work we do shapes our being able to work past the traditional retirement age.
The paradox of aging
In the 1980s, society considered old age pathological, that depression, anxiety, and the loss of cognitive function and memorywere inevitable consequences of aging.
Americans worship youth and spend billions of dollars annually in the pursuit of youth. We’re told: To avoid a descent into despair, buy this product.
The paradox of aging4 is that even though people’s physical health and functions decline in later adulthood, happiness does not. Many studies show that depression, anxiety stress, worry, and anger all decrease with advancing age.
Recognizing we won’t live forever changes our perspective in positive ways.
Mental health improves with age
Aging is not a disease; dementia is. Unfortunately, dementia and aging are often used interchangeably. Dementia is not an inevitable consequence of aging. It is ominous to consider 10 percent of the aging population has dementia. But it looks much different when we acknowledge that 90 percent of the elderly are not demented.
Old people process information more slowly. This can frustrate the older person and cause them and their loved ones to worry about dementia. But a longer response time decreases impulsivity; we have more time to think through the problem and give a considered response.
Chronological age is just a number. We have a physical age, a psychological age, and a sexual age. They vary from individual to individual and from time to time.
In many areas, things improve as we age:
- Acceptance of self and others
- The desire for a deeper connection
- Wisdom and empathy
- Capacity for forgiveness
- Gratitude
- Resilience
- Less emotional volatility and impulsivity
Don’t measure time; experience it
As we age, our time horizons grow shorter and our goals change. Older people direct their cognitive resources to positive information more than to negative.
I learned from that 82-year-old man that we can either measure or experience time. I was always busy, and in America, being busy is a badge of honor. I rushed from appointment to appointment, meeting to meeting.
Then, I recognized the oppressive power of ambition. I began to think, “Do I want to spend the rest of my life the way I’ve lived the first part?” My priorities changed as I moved closer to death.
Time still carries a sense of urgency, but the urgency of time has been transformed. I no longer see time as an endless series of appointments moving from one goal to the next. Now the urgency is to experience every moment and not waste the time that remains.
Perceiving the future
Younger people focus more on goals linked to learning, career planning, and new social relationships that may pay off in the future. As a young person, I felt no constraints on my time.
Every day, things happen to remind me of my mortality, and they seem to come at me with increasing frequency. As I grew older, I began to focus my attention on the positive aspects of my world. My goals shifted to ones that have emotional meaning. I live in the moment and let the future take care of itself.
I focus more on current and emotionally important relationships. I work, but only where and when I choose to. I decided never to sit through a boringlecture and never to go to cocktail parties to network. I would never wear a necktie because I refused to do what others expected of me.
I didn’t worry about dying but only how I would die. I wanted to avoid a lingering death, and I discussed that with my family and my doctor.
My social network shrank, but I pursued the most important relationships. I began to savor life, ignore trivial matters, appreciate others more, and found it easier to forgive. The more I did this, the happier I felt.
I experienced losses, but I became more comfortable with the sadness. Life became more than a series of painful events. I experience more joy, happiness, and satisfaction.
I no longer believe there’s always tomorrow. I have no promise of a tomorrow, so I’m going to make the best I can of today. I will let the future surprise me; it will unfold as it will.
Start thinking like an old person
Do you value being busy more than an adventure or spending time with your family? If you’re still years away from retirement, don’t wait until you’re 65 to experience the urgency of time. Why spend 30 to 40 years in retirement? Borrow time from our retirement years while you’re young.
Get off the treadmill now. Be happy like old people.
