TOPLEY’S TOP 10 May 09, 2025

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. Buybacks in Last Month $518bn — the biggest rolling three-month sum on record, FT reports

FT.com

2. Last Month was Fewest American M&A Deals Since 2009

Reuters.com

3. Ethereum Bounces 40% Off Lows

The Market Ear

4. Bitcoin ETF Making Run at Highs

Stock Charts

5. Trump’s crypto dealings are jeopardizing a bipartisan stablecoin bill

By Filip De Mott for Business Insider

President Donald Trump’s crypto ventures are getting in the way of his own agenda.

The fate of a bipartisan stablecoin bill has fallen into doubt as congressional Democrats show frustration with the president’s crypto moves.

The so-called GENIUS Act, once considered a quick win for the industry, is now losing support on one side of the aisle.

Pushback has grown as Trump and his family dabble in a range of crypto endeavors.

These include the issuance of his own meme coin before his inauguration, involvement in a new stablecoin, a possible family stake in Binance, and a partnership between the Trump Media & Technology Group and crypto.com.

6. India vs. Pakistan Military Size

Daily shot Brief

7. China to Vietnam to U.S. Trade Route

Reuters

8. U.S. Automakers are Huge Importers

Liz Ann Sonders

9. 50% of World in Poverty to 10%

Peter Mallouk

10. Opinion: 7 life lessons from Warren Buffett that have nothing to do with picking stocks

Via MarketWatch

We all have the ability to emulate the Oracle of Omaha in the ways that really matter By Brett Arends

I’ve been following Buffett and writing about him for a quarter-century, which is long by some measures and no time at all by others. (He has been managing money for nearly three times that long.) Now that he has announced, at age 94, that he is at last retiring as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, there are all the usual encomia about his investment genius and his stock-picking skills. And those are extraordinary, no question: It is very unlikely we would see his like again, even if we lived 10 lifetimes.

But it’s all the other stuff that has really struck me over the years — the smart decisions about life and money he’s made that don’t get so much attention. And that’s a pity, because those who try to replicate Buffett’s investment success probably won’t succeed. But everyone can learn from the other stuff.

1. He never moved to New York. Buffett never left Omaha, Neb., where the cost of living is a fraction of New York City and the quality of life, for him and probably for most people, is going to be much higher. (Bankrate reckons the cost of living in Omaha is 60% below that in Manhattan — meaning someone in Omaha need only earn $40,000 a year to have the same standard of living of someone in New York with an income of $100,000.)

Compare and contrast with all those people paying through the nose to live in a nice home in an expensive locale, or living in a shoebox, or spending 90 minutes commuting each way. Employers are now pushing everyone back to the office. Fair enough. But how about if more employers moved their offices somewhere more livable and affordable? It’s not the office that workers hate so much as the commute.

2. He didn’t waste money on stuff. Not for him the yachts, expensive cars, luxury properties or other toys of the rich and bored. Buffett seemed to understand early and instinctively what it has taken psychologists decades to conclude: That beyond a certain level, more spending will add little or nothing to your happiness. (When giving away his money, he said that spending beyond about 1% of his net worth on himself and his family would add nothing to their well-being or happiness.)

Psychologists refer to “the hedonic treadmill.” This is the futility — hence “treadmill” — of trying to achieve happiness by constantly buying more and bigger and better stuff.

The problem is that the human brain adapts to whatever we have. We get used to it. This is why lottery winners typically end up no happier years later than anyone else, and why if you visit a place where really rich people hang out — Palm Beach, Fla., or a five-star luxury hotel — and look around, you probably won’t see them all grinning madly about the fact that they are rich and marveling at all the things they can afford. But while “stuff” is costly to the rich, it’s lethal to the rest of us: That’s money we will need. The only way to beat the treadmill is to get off it.

3. He has a job he loves. From a financial standpoint, Buffett hasn’t had to work since he was in his 40s, but he kept going for another half-century — and loved it. “I’ve always worked in a job I love,” he once said. “I loved it just as much when it was a big deal if I made a thousand bucks, and I urge you to work in jobs you love.” Another time he described his job more as “play” than “work.”

This is priceless advice. Most of us will spend most of our waking hours, for the bulk of our lives, either working, traveling to or from work, getting ready for work or recovering from it. What is the dollar value of that time? It was a wise person who first observed that if you do a job you love, you’ll never work a day in your life.

Tailor your MarketWatch experience to your needs. Update your interests to help us recommend the most relevant MarketWatch features to you.

4. He has given, and is continuing to give, most of his money away. It’s almost impossible to imagine all the good that will be achieved with the hundreds of billions of dollars that Buffett has accumulated during his lifetime and that he is giving away to good causes. “Were we to use more than 1% of my claim checks (Berkshire Hathaway stock certificates) on ourselves,” he writes, “neither our happiness nor our well-being would be enhanced. In contrast, that remaining 99% can have a huge effect on the health and welfare of others.”

5. He didn’t care what the crowd thought. After more than a quarter of a century of writing about markets and finance, I’ve come to think my main expertise — possibly my only expertise — is on the subject of “popular delusions and the madness of crowds.” From ancient Greece to the COVID-19 crisis, it’s a subject that has fascinated me. And learning about it has made me especially fond of Buffett.

It wasn’t only during the dot-com bubble that he stood against the crowd’s insanity. He closed down his first partnership in the 1960s rather than join in the bubble of the “go-go years.” He invested, and publicly urged others to invest, during the epic bear market of the 1970s. He did it again during the 2008 crash. He made his money by courageously standing up against mass insanity and sticking to his principles. Bravo.

6. He’s humble. I’ve always said I don’t trust anyone until I have heard them say “I don’t know” and “I was wrong.” Buffett’s willingness to do both has been among his greatest and most profitable attributes. He has frequently emphasized that he invests only within his “circle of competence,” meaning he only invests in what he knows. And he admits there is a lot he doesn’t know.

“During the 2019-23 period, I have used the words “mistake” or “error” 16 times in my letters to you,” he wrote to stockholders in the 2024 Berkshire Hathaway annual report. “Many other huge companies have never used either word over that span.” For them, he added, “it has generally been happy talk and pictures.”

7. He’s acted like a grown-up. Can you imagine Warren Buffett standing around on a stage (in a graphic T-shirt) waving a chainsaw in the air and laughing about the middle-class jobs he was going to eliminate? Can you imagine him bragging about using bankruptcy laws to stiff his creditors? Can you imagine him running a bank so recklessly that it would end up crashing the global economy, but cashing out of his own stock before the stuff hit the fan, and then walking away with a shrug? I can’t. But I’ve seen billionaires and Wall Street tycoons do exactly those things in the recent past.

If you want to see how a billionaire should behave — in my view, anyway — watch Buffett’s remarkable statement to Congress during the Salomon Brothers hearings in 1991. There are billionaires, and then there are billionaires. We have too many of one kind, and too few of the other.

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 May 07, 2025

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. Mag 7 Revenues and EPS at Record Highs…Not Dead Yet

Mag 7 vs. SPX. The Mag-7’s forward revenues and forward earnings share both are at new record highs of 11.8% and 22.6%.

Yardeni Quick Takes

2. S&P Ex-NVDA Trails Japan and Europe Since 2022

The Irrelevant Investor

3. VIX Volatility Index -50% in One Month

StockCharts

4. Valuations Back to Highs

Bloomberg

5. U.S. GDP Growth Turns Negative

yahoo!finance

6. Private Equity Distributions 11% vs. Average 25%

Bloomberg

7. Import Surge of Pharmaceuticals

Michael McDonough

8. Monthly Payment for Mortgage Doubled in Last 5 Years

The biggest constraint continues to be affordability, with the median housing payment needed to afford the median priced home nearly doubling over the past five years.

Charlie Bilello

9. Money Pours into American Soccer

More money is pouring into US soccer as the sport’s popularity grows in the country. Sponsorship revenue for Major League Soccer is up more than 10% so far this year compared to 2024, CNBC reported, alongside a surge in ticket and merch sales; much of that is owed to Argentinian superstar Lionel Messi joining Inter Miami in 2023. Newfound corporate support — coupled with next year’s men’s World Cup in North America — bodes well for soccer’s future in the US, an expert wrote in Sports Business Journal: American clubs still pale financially in comparison to the European giants, but “a perfect storm exists for one of the world’s oldest sports to reach a new zenith of popularity.”

Semafor

10. Face the Criticism (The Daily Stoic)

Marcus Aurelius was the public face of an empire. Seneca published plays and books. Cato and Cicero ran for office. Epictetus was a slave to a powerful Roman, at his whim and his mercy.

In other words, they knew what it was like to be criticized. They knew what it was like to be received warmly by the audience…and not so warmly. They were subject to withering abuse, talked about as if they were not standing right there or as if they didn’t have normal human feelings.

But of course they did.

So what Stoicism aimed to help them with was enduring the pains and blows of feedback and critique and attack. “If only they really knew me,” Epictetus once joked, “they say even worse things!” This was his way of making light of the cruel things he would have often heard from his abusive owner. “We care about ourselves more than other people,” Marcus Aurelius writes with bafflement in Meditations, “but care about other people’s opinions more than our own.” In another passage, he reminds himself to consider the character and the habits of the person attacking him—thinking about what they were doing in private just a few minutes ago.

These public-facing Stoics would have loved the response of the Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau when he was told that Richard Nixon had called him an “asshole.” “I have been called worse things by better people,” he said with a shrug.

Being criticized is part of the job—any and every job. So is being misunderstood. Being abused isn’t fair…but no one gets out of life without experiencing some share of it.

We have to be ready for it…and ready to put it in its proper context. We have to be ready to shrug it off…and count ourselves as lucky that it wasn’t worse. Because it always can be!

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 May 06, 2025

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. Pre and Post Liberation Day Sector Returns

Fundstrat

2. Nine-Day S&P Win Streak a 99th Percentile Event

DorseyWright

3. U.S. Dollar Chart-#1 to Watch 2025…Hit First Level of Support

StockCharts

4. Amazon Rally Stops Below 200-Day

StockCharts

5. No Slowdown in AI Captial Spending with Amazon Posting Biggest Projected Number

VettaFi

6. The Updated Chart—Exit from Mutual Funds to ETFs

Investment Company Institute

7. China Exempts 25% of American Imports from Tariffs

Bloomberg

8. Student Loan Data

Axios

9. Warren Buffett’s Rules

Dave Ahern

10. Ever experienced a headache from drinking red wine? Researchers may have identified a reason

Quercetin, a bioactive flavonoid present in red wine, can impair alcohol metabolism.

Via Peter Attia: While many of us enjoy a few alcoholic beverages with friends and family now and then, the consequences of overindulgence are famously unpleasant. Headache, nausea, fatigue, and general malaise are commonly experienced by over-imbibers and can be temporarily debilitating. The post-consumption headache is particularly common, but many find that not all sources of alcohol are equally likely to result in this symptom. Red wine, in particular, is notorious for inducing headaches and does so roughly 3-fold more frequently than other beverages,1 often within 30 minutes and after only a single glass.

But what might explain such an effect? One study suggests that the polyphenol quercetin, a biologically active molecule present at relatively high concentrations in red wine, might be responsible.2

What causes alcohol-related headaches?

Alcohol (or more precisely, ethanol, the type of alcohol present in alcoholic beverages) has direct effects on many physiological systems and is responsible for the “buzz” sensations people experience when drinking. However, the metabolism of alcohol involves production of an intermediate compound known as acetaldehyde, and it is the build up of acetaldehyde that appears to induce the unpleasant side effects of alcoholic beverages.

Production of acetaldehyde is the first step in alcohol metabolism, after which this intermediate compound is further metabolized by the enzyme acetaldehyde dehydrogenase (ALDH) into harmless end-products. Slowing the rate of this second step can therefore lead to accumulation of acetaldehyde and the consequent headaches and other negative sensations associated with alcohol intake.

Indeed, the strongest evidence of acetaldehydes’ culpability in the undesirable effects of alcohol overconsumption comes from studies of individuals with a genetic defect in the ALDH2 gene. Those with a homozygous ALDH2 defect demonstrate almost no ALDH2 activity, and subsequently experience greatly increased acetaldehyde levels following even moderate alcohol consumption.3 Similarly, suppression of ALDH2 by the drug disulfiram also leads to increased serum acetaldehyde. Importantly, the undesirable effects of alcohol consumption, including headache, are highly prevalent in both those with ALDH2 defects and those taking disulfiram.4

But some data5 suggest that ALDH2 activity may also be impaired by quercetin, a biologically active flavonoid compound found in high levels in red wine. Red wine contains roughly 10-100 times higher concentrations of quercetin than beer, white wine, or spirits,6 so if the suppression of ALDH2 by quercetin is sufficient to significantly raise serum acetaldehyde levels, this might easily explain why undesirable effects seem more pronounced with red wine relative to other sources of alcohol. Investigators Devi et al. thus sought to determine the magnitude of the specific effects of quercetin on ALDH2 activity.

What they did

This study was designed to assess the ability of quercetin and its metabolites to affect the activity of ALDH2. To accomplish this, the researchers utilized an in vitro biochemical assay in which quercetin or related compounds were added to a solution containing human ALDH2 enzyme, and enzyme inhibition was measured by spectroscopy.

Quercetin at a concentration of 20 μM was found to inhibit ALDH2 by 28%, but in addition to this direct effect of quercetin itself, a major metabolite of quercetin — quercetin-3-glucuronide (Q3G) — caused an astounding ~78% inhibition of ALDH2. The IC-50 (the concentration of a substance required to reduce a biological process by half its maximal value) for quercetin and Q3G was calculated to be 26.5 μM and 9.6 μM, respectively. (For reference, the IC-50 of the ALDH2 inhibitor disulfiram was calculated to be 1.45 μM, indicating a stronger inhibitory effect by disulfiram than either quercetin or Q3G.)

Based on reports that quercetin is present in red wine at a concentration of about 50 μM and that most quercetin that reaches circulation is converted to Q3G, the authors calculated that consumption of a 150-ml glass of red wine would lead to serum Q3G concentrations of approximately 5 μM (out of a total quercetin concentration of ~6 μM). Given the findings of their in vitro tests, they then estimated that this amount of Q3G would impair ALDH2 activity by ~37%.

Interpreting these data

Though this study was well executed, its results only go so far. The use of an in vitro model, in which reagents are simply added together in a test tube, certainly presents a limitation to extrapolating these data to humans. When humans consume quercetin-containing food or drink, it must first be absorbed by the gastrointestinal tract and undergo first-pass metabolism by the liver before reaching circulation. What is the ultimate bioavailability of oral quercetin? The source (many vegetables and herbs contain quercetin, particularly capers, dill, fennel, and onions), presence of other macronutrients, and interindividual variation all appear to significantly impact absorption.7 Indeed, studies measuring serum quercetin levels after wine consumption have reported highly variable results, and although the 6 μM concentration estimated by Devi et al. does fall within reported ranges, it’s important to keep in mind that this was an estimate — they performed no in vivo experiments to actually measure the resulting quercetin concentrations.

This brings us to another noteworthy caveat, which is that these experiments also did not attempt to determine the effect of 37% ALDH2 inhibition on acetaldehyde build-up — the key variable in assessing whether ALDH2 inhibition by quercetin might translate to noticeable differences in the negative symptoms of alcohol intake. (Again, this is weaker inhibition than is seen with disulfiram, which is known to have a very strong effect on alcohol-related side effects.) While it is possible that red wine consumption could increase serum quercetin metabolite concentrations high enough to significantly impact ALDH2 activity and therefore increase serum acetaldehyde to a level sufficient to induce a headache, Devi et al. demonstrate only one isolated link in this chain of events — albeit a critical one for which we had the least prior evidence. No study has yet attempted to simultaneously measure all of these variables, let alone in human subjects.

Can you enjoy red wine but avoid the headache?

Still, if we assume these results reflect a genuine, significant pathway underlying the dreaded “red wine headache,” does this mean that you can never enjoy a cabernet or merlot without pain? Not exactly, as various strategies exist for mitigating the headache-inducing effects.

The simplest approaches are old standbys: drink less in total, make sure to consume plenty of water while drinking wine, and extend the consumption window to allow more time for acetaldehyde metabolism to occur and prevent it from building up in the blood. But wines also vary significantly in their quercetin content. White wines and rosés contain far less quercetin than reds, and even among reds, some varieties and vintages will have higher or lower levels than others. (In fact, some winemakers take intentional steps to reduce quercetin content through filtration and fining agents during the winemaking process, as quercetin tends to cause precipitates to form in wine.) Choosing a variety with a low level of quercetin may be advantageous, though this can be challenging since factors such as soil properties and sun exposure — which can change from year to year and aren’t generally disclosed on a bottle’s label — can have substantial impacts.

Unfortunately, these mitigation strategies don’t apply universally. If you happen to carry two copies of a defective ALDH gene (common for those of East Asian descent) and experience symptoms after any alcohol consumption, it is unlikely any of these approaches will provide much relief. Further, if quercetin contributes to headaches with red wine, it may not be the only factor that does so. Some individuals find that at-home wine filters, which remove many sulfites and histamines but do not affect quercetin, help to prevent wine-related headaches, suggesting that these other molecules play a role in generating this particular symptom. Finally, we must emphasize that these strategies might prevent the short-term negative effects of alcohol, but, with the exception of reducing total intake, we have no evidence that they would reduce alcohol’s numerous long-term negative effects on health.

The bottom line

Devi et al. identified a plausible mechanism to explain the headache and hangover symptoms commonly experienced by red wine drinkers. A study using human subjects and simultaneously measuring the quercetin content of alcoholic beverages, serum acetaldehyde, serum quercetin content following consumption, and the presence and severity of headache and hangover symptoms would help confirm the proposed links between red wine and headaches, though there would still exist some possibility that quercetin is not the only culprit.

In the meantime, those who wish to enjoy wine without the headache might try various mitigation strategies to lessen symptoms, but of course, the surest strategy — and the one that is best for long-term health, as well — is to reduce overall intake.

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 May 05, 2025

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. Hard to Believe But…April 2025 Volatility was Only Eclipsed by 1987 Crash and GFC

History Books:  Here’s one for the history books — the amount of volatility we saw in early April was eclipsed only by the 1987 crash and 2008/09 financial crisis.

Michael McDonough

2. Barrons Big Money Poll: Professional Investors the Most Bearish in 28 Years

America’s money managers are more bearish today than they have been in nearly 30 years. Barron’s latest Big Money poll of professional investors finds 32% of respondents bearish on the outlook for stocks over the next 12 months—the highest percentage since at least 1997.  Just think about all the crises investors have weathered since then: the bursting of the dot-com bubble, the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the 2008-09 financial crisis, the Covid-19 pandemic. And yet the Big Money pros are more anxious now than during any of those painful points for the financial markets, the economy, and the country. The bulls’ ranks also stand at historic levels in our spring survey—historically low, that is. Just 26% of respondents call themselves bullish on the market’s prospects, the smallest percentage since 1997.

Barron’s

3. April Largest Monthly Positive Inflows by Retail Investors on Record

Retail investors (II) …retail investors tracked by JPMorgan “net bought $40B in April, surpassing last month and setting a new record for the largest monthly inflow.”

The Market Ear

4. S&P 500 Trades Right Back to 200-Day Moving Average

StockCharts

5. Nasdaq QQQ Trades Right Back to 200-Day

StockCharts

6. Post-Liberation Day Returns

It’s been exactly a month since “Liberation Day” on April 2nd when President Trump announced massive reciprocal tariffs on the rest of the world.  At its intraday low on April 8th, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) was down 14.7% from its closing level on April 2nd.  Since that low, SPY has now rallied 17.4%, and as of this morning, SPY has fully recovered all of its post-Liberation Day declines.

Below is a look at the performance of key index and sector ETFs since the close on Liberation Day (4/2).   Technology (XLK) is now the best performing sector since 4/2 with a gain of 2.9%, followed by the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Semis (SMH), and Industrials (XLI).  On the downside, the Energy sector (XLE) has been by far the biggest laggard with a decline of 12.7%.

Besporke

7. Eli Lilly Biggest One-Day Sell Off in 17 Years…P/E has Dropped from 80x to 40x

Bloomberg

8. Office Delinquencies Turn Back Up

Via WOLF STREET.  Delinquencies of office mortgages that were securitized into commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) have been in the red-hot zone since mid-2023 and in December 2024 hit 11.0%, surpassing even the debt-meltdown during the Financial Crisis. Then, during the first three months of 2025, the delinquency rate backed off some, but in April re-spiked by 52 basis points to 10.3%, according to data by Trepp today, which tracks and analyzes CMBS.

The 52-basis-point increase of the delinquency rate represented a U-Turn from the feeble signs of hope earlier this year and put the delinquency rate right back into the peak of the Financial Crisis meltdown.

A flight to quality has divided the office market into two: Amid much reduced demand for office space, vacancies in the latest and greatest buildings allow companies to move from older office towers into new fancy offices, while downsizing space at the same time . But landlords of older properties have trouble finding new tenants to replace them, and their vacancy rates have soared. It’s those older office towers that are on the problem list, not the latest and greatest towers.

Wolf Street

9. The Tesla of the Toy Market—Pop Mart is Worth More than Rival Toy Makers Combined

Although the company’s been on a rocky ride since going public in late 2020 — with revenue not always measuring up to its previously blistering pace — shares have risen ~460% in the past year and hit a record high in the last week, adding $1.6 billion to Pop Mart’s founder’s wealth in a single day. The surge has also seen the company’s market cap roar to $33.6 billion, making it more valuable than Hello Kitty giant Sanrio, Transformers behemoth Hasbro, and Barbie-maker Mattel… combined.

Could the ongoing US-China trade war put a dent in Labubu-mania, or will Pop Mart still look positively dolled-up further into the future?

10. Warren Buffett: ‘The long-term trend is up’

Via TKer — Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, remains bullish on the long run. At the same time, he acknowledges that people will continue to be distracted by short-term market moves, which will continue to be unpredictable.

“The long-term trend is up,“ Buffett said at Berkshire’s annual shareholders meeting on Saturday.

“Nobody knows what the market is going to do tomorrow, next week, next month,” he added. “But they spend all their time talking about it, because it’s easy to talk about. But it has no value.”

Buffett was responding to a shareholder’s question about Berkshire’s massive cash pile, which grew to $347 billion in Q1. He reiterated what he said in his annual letter, which was that his preference is not to be sitting in so much cash. But he made clear that holding cash was smarter than making brash acquisitions.

“We would rather have conditions that have developed where we would have like $50 billion or something like that,” he said. “But that just isn’t the way the business works.”

Buffett explained if he acquired businesses or accumulated stock solely for the sake of getting that cash pile down to $50 billion, “That would be the dumbest thing in the world to invest in that manner.”

For now, Buffett believes it’s better to keep dry powder for when Berkshire could be “bombarded with offerings” that offer better risk-reward opportunities than what he’s seeing today.

“We have made a lot of money by not wanting to be fully invested at all times,” he said.

Of course, this strategy is not for everyone. Buffett and Berkshire are in the business of acquiring companies and picking stocks. In fact, Buffett has historically recommended most people to invest in passively managed S&P 500 index funds.

“We don’t think it’s improper for people who are passive investors to just make a few simple investments and sit for their life in them,” he said. “But we’ve made the decision to be in this business. So we think we can do a little better than that.“

Buffett downplays recent market volatility, warns of a ‘hair curler’ event 📉

A shareholder asked Buffett specifically about the market swings we experienced in the past month.

“What has happened in the last 30, 45 days, 100 days … it’s really nothing,” he said. “This is not a huge move. … This has not been a dramatic bear market or anything of the sort.“

Indeed, you can get smoked in the short-term. It’s one of the truths about the stock market.

“If it makes a difference to you whether your stocks are down 15% or not, you need to get a somewhat different investment philosophy,” Buffett said. “The world is not going to adapt to you. You’re going to have to adapt to the world.”

Buffett cautioned that just because he doesn’t think the recent market swings were notable doesn’t mean we won’t get a more violent downturn some time in the future. He said “certainly in the next 20 years” we will get a “hair curler” event.

“The world makes big, big, big mistakes, and surprises happen in dramatic ways,” he said. “The more sophisticated the system gets, the more the surprises can be out of right field. That’s part of the stock market. That’s what makes it a good place to focus your efforts if you have the proper temperament for it — and a terrible place to get involved if you get frightened by markets that decline and get excited when stock markets go up. I don’t mean to sound particularly critical. People have emotions. But you have to check them at the door when you invest.”

Zooming out 🔭

Buffett covered a lot during his five-hour long Q&A. His comments on protectionist trade policy and pessimism toward the U.S. economy were particularly interesting. A lot of media outlets are covering it. I may write about it later.

But the big news out of this year’s event was Buffett’s announcement that he intends to step down as CEO as he makes way for vice chairman Greg Abel to succeed him.

“I think the time has arrived where Greg should become the chief executive officer of the company at year-end,” Buffett said.

Buffett’s time at the helm of Berkshire may be coming to an end. But his timeless investing lessons will surely endure.

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 May 02, 2025

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. Sell in May??

Carson

2. S&P Green 8 Days in a Row

Barchart

3. Amazon AWS Slower Growth but Huge Margins

Bespoke

4. Interesting…Who is Buying Gold Protection? Asia

Commodities: Retail purchases of gold in Asia surged over the past 12 months.

Daily Shot Brief

5. Stocks/Gold and the U.S. Dollar

Ben Carlson

6. Energy ETF Broke 2 levels…Exxon and Chevron 40% of ETF

StockCharts

7. Starbucks Gives Back All NEW CEO Rally…. -30% from Highs

StockCharts

8. Pfizer Down on 5-Year Basis

Google Finance

9. Russians Building a Military Base 100 Miles from Finland

Via WSJ: HELSINKI—With President Trump and many other world leaders preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, some Europeans are growing alarmed about what the Russian army has been doing much more quietly along other stretches of its border with Europe.

Some 100 miles east of its border with Finland, in the Russian city of Petrozavodsk, military engineers are expanding army bases where the Kremlin plans to create a new army headquarters to oversee tens of thousands of troops over the next several years.

As Russia prepares to increase its military presence along NATO’s eastern flank, Putin has ordered the military to expand its ranks to as many as 1.5 million troops, up from around one million before the Ukraine invasion.

Russia has increased military spending to more than 6% of GDP this year, from 3.6% before the war. By comparison, the U.S. spent 3.4% of its GDP on its military last year, and EU countries, on average, spent 2.1%. In 2021, before the invasion, Russia made about 40 of its main battle tanks, the T-90M, according to Western intelligence estimates. Now it is producing nearly 300 a year. A senior Finnish military official said almost none are being sent to the front line in Ukraine, but are staying on Russian soil for later use.

10. Improve Your Diet

From Mark Harmon: Simple Prep Moves That Save You All Week

You don’t need to be a meal prep pro—you just need a few simple go-to methods that make your whole foods ready to eat. These are some of the easiest, most versatile ways to get set up for the week ahead.

1. Roast Lots of Vegetables

Roasting brings out the natural sweetness in vegetables and makes them more satisfying and snackable. You can batch-cook a tray or two early in the week and use them in salads, bowls, or as a ready-to-eat snack or side.

Best vegetables for roasting: cauliflower, broccoli, carrots, Brussels sprouts, sweet potatoes, zucchini

  • Preheat the oven to 425°F.
  • Chop your veggies into similar-sized pieces so they roast evenly.
  • Toss with about 1 teaspoon of avocado oil per cup of vegetables.
  • Add dried herbs and spices—rosemary, smoked paprika, cumin, and garlic powder all work well.
  • Spread veggies in a single layer on a baking sheet (don’t crowd them).
  • Roast, stirring every 10 minutes, until fork-tender—usually 20 to 40 minutes, depending on the vegetable.
  • Sprinkle with sea salt and pepper to taste once they’re done.

2. Make Shredded Meat

Shredded protein is one of the easiest ways to prep for the week. Toss it into salads, wraps, bowls, soups, or have it ala carte. The key is matching the method to the type of meat.

Stovetop method (best for chicken breast, chicken thighs, turkey breast)

  • Add 1–2 pounds of boneless, skinless poultry to a saucepan or skillet.
  • Pour in just enough water or broth to cover.
  • Add a pinch of salt or flavor boosters like garlic cloves or a bay leaf.
  • Bring to a boil, then reduce heat and simmer gently for 15–20 minutes, until fully cooked.

Let cool slightly, then shred with two forks or your hands.

Slow cooker method (best for pork shoulder, beef chuck roast, or boneless short ribs)

  • Add 2–3 pounds of meat to the slow cooker.
  • Pour in ½ to 1 cup of broth or water. Add chopped onion, garlic, or dried herbs if you’d like.
  • Cook on low for 6–8 hours or on high for 3–4 hours, until fork-tender.
  • Shred and store in an airtight container for up to 4 days.

3. Prepare Healthy Dips and Dressings

Dips and dressings can make vegetables, proteins, and salads more appealing—but most store-bought versions are packed with added sugar, preservatives, and low-quality oils.

Instead, try making your own. It only takes a few minutes, and you can control exactly what goes in.

Here are four of my favorite healthy dips and dressings.

Want to Take It Further?

This kitchen clean-out is just one part of the 10-Day Detox—our simple, step-by-step reset designed to help you eat better, feel better, and take back control of your health. So if you’re ready to seriously upgrade your nutrition and start feeling better in just 10 days, click here to learn more.

References:

1. Roe LS, Rolls BJ. Which strategies to manage problem foods were related to weight loss in a randomized clinical trial? Appetite. 2020 Aug 1;151:104687. 2. Schulte EM, Avena NM, Gearhardt AN. Which foods may be addictive? The roles of processing, fat content, and glycemic load. PLoS One. 2015 Feb 18;10(2):e0117959.