Torsten Slok, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Partner Apollo Global Management Equity analysts continue to increase their earnings expectations to the S&P500, see chart below. There are simply no signs of a slowdown in corporate earnings, the economy continues to power ahead fueled by easy financial conditions, and this is an upside risk to inflation over the coming months.
8. Natural Gas and Nuclear Top Sources of Electric Power
Farnam Street -Success is often a product of environment.
While a polar bear might thrive in the Arctic, it would not thrive in a desert. People are no different. The person who excels in one environment fails in another.
Understanding how environments impact performance changes how you hire. Employees who thrive in one environment easily fail in another if their performance was contingent on the workplace conditions. This is why hiring a superstar away from a competitor, without understanding the role of environment on performance, often fails.
1.Not Many People Would Win This Trivia Question—Gold Outperformed S&P on 100-Year Basis.
Jim Reid Deutsche Bank Gold has got a lot of attention in the last couple of months. It’s now up around +17% since the start of March, making it one of the best performing global assets in that time frame.
In today’s CoTD we give a brief annotated history of Gold. Regular readers of my long-term studies will know that my big picture view on inflation has always been based around gold. When you have a gold standard where money is linked to gold you don’t get long-run inflation, since the ability to create new money is constrained by the fact it’s linked to gold. But when you break ties with Gold, inflation is always likely to be just around the corner when viewed from a longer-term perspective, as that constraint disappears and the temptation to create more money eventually wins out. So in a world of fiat money and high debt, Gold is always going to be an attractive part of a portfolio. The fact that it’s out-performed the S&P 500 this century, even with US equities seemingly bullet proof, tells you a lot about the macro environment we’ve seen this millennium so far.
2.Gold vs. S&P 5-Year…Gold Wins.
3.S&P Pullback by Sector.
4.Equity Risk Premium
I am not an expert is this chart
5.KRE Regional Bank ETF
Closed back below 200-day
6.China Selling U.S. Treasuries.
Zerohedge For the 9th month of the last 11, China’s Treasury holdings declined in February (the latest TIC data), dropping by $22.7BN. Additionally, it has now been 24 of the last 28 months that China’s Treasury holdings have declined, now back at practically its lowest level since June 2009…
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries surged to a record in February, its fifth straight monthly rise, Treasury Department data released on Wednesday showed.
Holdings totaled $7.965 trillion, up from a revised $7.945 trillion in January. Treasuries owned by foreigners rose 8.7% from a year earlier.
Holdings of Treasuries grew the most in Belgium, by $27 billion, to hit $320 billion. Japan, the largest non-U.S. holder of Treasuries, increased its U.S. government debt to $1.167 trillion, the largest since August 2022 when the country’s holdings were at $1.196 trillion.
Investors have been alert to the threat of Japanese intervention in the currency market to boost the yen, which plunged to a 34-year low of 154.79 per dollar on Tuesday.
The Bank of Japan intervened three times in 2022, selling the dollar to buy yen, first in September and again in October as the yen slid toward a 32-year low of 152 to the dollar.
In September and October 2022, Japan’s Treasury holdings declined $131.6 billion from $1.196 trillion in August.
China’s pile of Treasuries also fell in February to $775 billion, data showed. The monthly decline of $22.7 billion was the second biggest among the 20 major countries on the Treasury’s list.
Holdings of Treasuries by China, the world’s second largest economy, have been declining, reaching $763.5 billion in February, the lowest since March 2009.
Britain listed its Treasury holdings at $700.8 billion, up about $9 billion from January.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield started February at 3.863% and ended the month at 4.252%, up nearly 39 basis points. Yields rose as a slew of solid economic data was released that month, reflecting expectations that the Federal Reserve will delay cutting interest rates.
Major U.S. asset classes had inflows during the month, the data showed.
On a transaction basis, U.S. Treasuries posted inflows of $88.8 billion, up from $46.3 billion in January.
Foreign buying of U.S. corporates and agencies persisted in February, with inflows of $52.7 billion and $3.7 billion, respectively.
U.S. equities showed a minor inflow of $400 million, compared with outflows of $15.4 billion in January.
Overall, net foreign acquisitions of long- and short-term securities, as well as banking flows, showed a net inflow of $51.6 billion in February, up from outflows of $30.8 billion the previous month, Treasury data showed.
(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Richard Chang)
8.House panel says China subsidizes fentanyl production to fuel crisis in the United States—Communism Sucks
BY KEVIN FREKING WASHINGTON (AP) — China is fueling the fentanyl crisis in the U.S. by directly subsidizing the manufacturing of materials that are used by traffickers to make the drug outside the country, according to a report released Tuesday by a special House committee focused on countering the Chinese government.
Committee investigators said they accessed a government website that revealed tax rebates for the production of specific fentanyl precursors as well as other synthetic drugs as long as those companies sell them outside of China.
“Through its actions, as our report has revealed, the Chinese Communist Party is telling us that it wants more fentanyl entering our country,” said Rep. Mike Gallagher, the Republican chairman of the special House committee. “It wants the chaos and devastation that has resulted from the epidemic.”
In November, President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping announced a resumption of bilateral cooperation on counternarcotics with a focus on reducing the flow of precursor chemicals and synthetic drug trafficking. But the congressional report raises questions about whether China is following through.
The report’s findings were released Tuesday as part of a hearing examining China’s role in the fentanyl epidemic in the U.S. Most overdose deaths in the U.S. continue to be linked to fentanyl and other synthetic opioids. Inexpensive fentanyl is increasingly cut into other drugs, often without the buyers’ knowledge.
For starters, less happiness, more loneliness, and worse sleep.
KEY POINTS
The typical American breakfast is notoriously unhealthy.
What the brain prefers us to eat for breakfast, and when, is not always good for the rest of the body.
Frequent breakfast skipping was associated with lower happiness, loneliness, and poor sleep.
The mantra “eat breakfast like a king, lunch like a prince, and dinner like a pauper” could help.
In online forums, some bodybuilders seem convinced that skipping breakfast will not harm the body or interfere with adding more muscle mass. Some contributors to this myth suggest that our hunter/gatherer ancestors did not eat breakfast because they had to start hunting for breakfast as soon as they woke up.
In reality, we do not know what our ancestors ate for breakfast, but I would not be surprised if they tossed down some raw roots, nuts, and seeds before heading out onto the savannah to find food. Still, what we know about breakfast, in general, suggests these particular bodybuilders are incorrect.
What is Breakfast?
The typical American breakfast is notoriously unhealthy. As a result, some proponents of the “skip breakfast” ideology defend their position by arguing that breakfast does not involve eating nutritious foods.
Americans indeed tend to prefer a nice blend of fat, salt, and sugar for breakfast. Donut stores are positioned along the most popular routes to work because that’s what we want to eat in the morning.
What’s more, most American adults, when queried, perceive that typical American breakfast foods are well suited for breakfast despite their poor nutritional value. People feel that more nutritious alternatives that they usually consume at lunch or dinner are simply less appropriate for breakfast.
Consequently, people are reluctant to include more nutritious alternatives to their breakfast selections. This likely explains why the cereal aisle at my grocer offers only one brand without added sugar.
Should You Eat Sugar at Breakfast?
Yet some sugar at breakfast may be a good thing. Sugar is an effective cognitive enhancer—you can read Your Brain on Food for more on this topic—and studies of people who ate breakfast found that increased blood sugar improved memory function. The improvement in memory function correlated with blood glucose concentrations.
In contrast, skipping breakfast adversely affected the ability of subjects to recall a word list and a story read aloud. They also had difficulty recalling items while counting backward. Skipping breakfast did not affect intelligence, just memory.
Fortunately, the decline in memory performance associated caused by skipping breakfast was reversed by the consumption of a sugary beverage. It appears that the consumption of simple carbohydrates with a high glycemic index, e.g. cereals and donuts, influenced memory abilities by temporarily increasing blood glucose.
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The Physical Effect of Unhealthy Breakfasts
However, what the brain prefers us to eat, and when, is not always good for the rest of the body, and a bad breakfast can have mental and physical consequences.
There is a relationship between eating an unhealthy breakfast and abdominal obesity and body mass index (BMI). Further, some indicators of mental health—including self-rated health, body satisfaction, and life satisfaction—are significantly related to breakfast quality. Age and gender also play a role: Girls and older people have a higher risk of diet quality negatively affecting their mental health.
Interestingly, skipping breakfast of any type significantly increased the probability of depression, stress, and psychological distress in all age groups. Frequent breakfast skipping was associated with lower happiness, loneliness, short sleeping, long sleeping, restless sleep, and poor academic performance. Eating and sleeping are clearly related to good mental and physical health.
What if I Delay Breakfast Until Later?
The body is influenced by our daily rhythms of eating. One recent study examined the effects of eating the majority of each day’s calories later in the day. Overweight women were divided into a breakfast group (700 kcal breakfast, 500 kcal lunch, 200 kcal dinner) or a dinner group (200 kcal breakfast, 500 kcal lunch, 700 kcal dinner) for 12 weeks.
The breakfast group showed greater weight loss and waist circumference reduction. Fasting glucose and insulin decreased significantly in the breakfast group. Average triglyceride levels decreased by 33.6 percent in the breakfast group and increased significantly in the dinner group.
Skipping breakfast and then overeating in the evening appear to play a significant role in weight gain and obesity. Furthermore, people who skip breakfast report not feeling as satisfied by their food and being hungry between meals.
If this sounds like you, then it may be time to enjoy breakfast again—and overall, the take-home message from many human studies is to eat a big breakfast and a small dinner. I suggest the new mantra: Eat breakfast like a king, lunch like a prince, and dinner like a pauper.
Small caps have been laggards for the last decade when compared to large caps. Since 2014, the Russell 2000 Index (RUT) has only beaten the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in a calendar year twice, in 2016 and 2020. As it stands today, RUT is looking to mark its fourth consecutive year of underperformance against the SPX which would mean that RUT would have outperformed the SPX only once in the last eight years if this were to hold. It would be easy to say that large caps are simply more dominant and perform better than small caps if one looked back at the last few years. However, despite small caps’ struggles over the last decade, RUT has more often than not outperformed the SPX annually with data going back to 1979. RUT has outperformed SPX in just over half of all years (54.35%) since 1979. If one ignores the last decade, the percentage of years RUT outperformed SPX jumps up to 65.71%. The underperformance of RUT against the SPX is abnormal by historical standards but it’s also not without precedent. The chart below displays the excess return of RUT against the SPX for every year since 1979. A second data point is included, the 5-year average annual excess return, to help highlight longer periods of strength and weakness for small caps.
8.Not Sure “Terrifying” but Apartment Construction Slowing to Covid Levels.
9.Rural America’s working-age adults die at wildly higher rates than their counterparts in cities. Why?
MSN.COM Jazmin Orozco Rodriguez Three words are commonly repeated to describe rural America and its residents: older, sicker and poorer.
Obviously, there’s a lot more going on in the nation’s towns than that tired stereotype suggests. But a new report from the Agriculture Department’s Economic Research Service gives credence to the “sicker” part of the trope.
Rural Americans ages 25 to 54 — considered the prime working-age population — are dying of natural causes such as chronic diseases and cancer at wildly higher rates than their age-group peers in urban areas, according to the report.
The USDA researchers analyzed mortality data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from two three-year periods — 1999 through 2001, and 2017 through 2019. In 1999, the natural-cause mortality rate for rural working-age adults was only 6 percent higher than that of their city-dwelling peers. By 2019, the gap had widened to 43 percent.
The disparity was significantly worse for women — and for Native American women, in particular. The gap highlights how persistent difficulties accessing health care, and a dispassionate response from national leaders, can eat away at the fabric of rural communities.
Iam struggling today. If you’ve ever struggled to be consistent with something you care about, maybe my struggle will resonate with you too.
It has been 939 days since November 12, 2012. That’s the date when I first published an article on JamesClear.com and it’s almost 2 years and 7 months ago. During these 939 mostly glorious, sometimes frustrating days, I have written a new post every Monday and Thursday. Week after week. Month after month. Year after year.
Today, I Feel Like Giving Up
But today? Well, today I am struggling. Today, I don’t feel like writing. Today, I don’t feel like sticking to the routine. Today, I don’t feel like I have any great ideas and I don’t feel like I have enough time to make the good ideas great. Today, I feel like giving up.
Here’s what I try to remind myself of when I feel like giving up…
Your Mind is a Suggestion Engine
Consider every thought you have as a suggestion, not an order. Right now, my mind is suggesting that I feel tired. It is suggesting that I give up. It is suggesting that I take an easier path.
If I pause for a moment, however, I can discover new suggestions. My mind is also suggesting that I will feel very good about accomplishing this work once it is done. It is suggesting that I will respect the identity I am building when I stick to the schedule. It is suggesting that I have the ability to finish this task, even when I don’t feel like.
Remember, none of these suggestions are orders. They are merely options. I have the power to choose which option I follow.
Discomfort Is Temporary
Relative to the time in your normal day or week, nearly any habit you perform is over quickly. Your workout will be finished in an hour or two. Your report will be typed to completion by tomorrow morning. This article will be finished in just a moment.
Life is easier now than it has ever been. 300 years ago, if you didn’t kill your own food and build your own house, you would die. Today, we whine about forgetting our iPhone charger.
Maintain perspective. Your life is good and your discomfort is temporary. Step into this moment of discomfort and let it strengthen you.
You Will Never Regret Good Work Once It is Done
Theodore Roosevelt famously said, “Far and away the best prize that life has to offer is the chance to work hard at work worth doing.” So often it seems that we want to work easily at work worth doing. We want our work to be helpful and respected, but we do not want to struggle through our work. We want our stomachs to be flat and our arms to be strong, but we do not want to grind through another workout. We want the final result, but not the failed attempts that precede it. We want the gold, but not the grind.
Anyone can want a gold medal. Few people want to train like an Olympian.
And yet, despite our resistance to it, I have never found myself feeling worse after the hard work was done. There have been days when it was damn hard to start, but it was always worth finishing. Sometimes, the simple act of showing up and having the courage to do the work, even in an average manner, is a victory worth celebrating.
This Is Life
Life is a constant balance between giving into the ease of distraction or overcoming the pain of discipline. It is not an exaggeration to say that our lives and our identities are defined in this delicate balance. What is life, if not the sum of a hundred thousand daily battles and tiny decisions to either gut it out or give it up?
This moment when you don’t feel like doing the work? This is not a moment to be thrown away. This is not a dress rehearsal. This moment is your life as much as any other moment. Spend it in a way that will make you proud.
Let the World Decide
So, what do I do when I feel like giving up? I show up.
Do I show up at my best? I doubt it. But my job isn’t to judge how good or how bad I am.
A major Amazon and Nvidia supplier has found the new AI hot spot Google, Microsoft, and others rely on technology from Taiwan’s Foxconn for their AI developments
For many, hearing the name Foxconn immediately brings to mind iPhone production. It’s true, the Taiwanese company is a major producer of Apple’s smartphones and other products. But it also makes something companies like Nvidia, Amazon, and more are in high demand of: AI-related hardware. And Big Tech companies in the U.S. would like that hardware to come from Mexico and not China, thank you very much.
Foxconn has listened to those demands, and has made major AI investments in Mexico. The world’s largest contract electronics maker has funneled $690 million into the country in the past four years, according to the Wall Street Journal. Just this February, Foxconn picked up a slice of land in the western state of Jalisco for $27 million to facilitate a major expansion of its AI server production, people familiar with the plan told the Journal.
Why Mexico? In the race to build the latest and greatest AI technology, the biggest tech companies in the U.S. — Nvidia, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft — are using Foxconn’s facilities in Mexico to help meet their AI server needs, according to the report. It’s part of a larger trend called “friendshoring” or “nearshoring.” That’s a geopolitical buzzword that describes the practice of running supply chains only through countries that are close political partners.
In this specific case, Big Tech companies are trying to make sure less of their supply chains rely on China, a growing political frenemy of the U.S. The shift is also a consequence of the 2020 free trade agreement between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, that has persuaded manufacturers to invest in those countries instead of China.
Mexico has emerged as the lucrative investment for these operations, and it’s already shuffling up global trade. Data released last month showed that for the first time in two decades, U.S. imports from Mexico surpassed those from China, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
5. Publicly Traded Real Estate REITs are Worst Performing Sector for 5 Years
With rate cuts fading….XLRE SPDR real estate etf closes back below 200-day
6. Sell-Offs Leading into Tax Day Common Since 1985
7. Assets Invested in ETFs in U.S. Reach Record of $8.87 Trillion at End of Q1 2024
Nasdaq.com
Highlights
Highlights
Assets invested in the ETFs industry in the United States reached a new record of $8.87 Tn at the end of Q1 2024 beating the previous record of $8.54 Tn at the end of February 2024.
Assets invested in the ETFs industry in the US have increased 9.3% YTD in 2024, going from $8.11 Tn at end of 2023 to $8.87 Tn.
Net inflows of $103.17 Bn in March.
YTD net inflows of $232.18 Bn are the second highest on record, the highest recorded YTD net inflows were $252.22 Bn in 2021 and the third highest YTD net inflows wer $196.75 Bn in 2022.
According to FinanceBuzz, the average price of 10 menu items at McDonald’s has doubled over the last decade, rising more than any other major fast food company. The reported inflation rate over the past 10 years: 31%.
Here are the 10 McDonald’s menu items and their price increases over the last 10 years…
10. Research Shows Coffee Has 3 Health Benefits That Will Make You Want to Drink More
These health benefits from drinking coffee may be news to many of us.
Most of us coffee drinkers probably know the benefits of coffee, right? Sure, there’s the flavor of a perfectly made flat white–a benefit to your grateful taste buds. Most of us also know that coffee obviously makes us more alert, so we get off to a great start at work. To get a little scientific, a comprehensive review of around a hundred studies found that caffeine, the most active ingredient in coffee, is known to:
Increase energy levels
Reduce tiredness
Help with short-term memory, problem-solving, decision-making, and concentration
What’s going on in the brain, exactly? Well, I’m no scientist, but let me pretend to be one for this article. Caffeine stops adenosine, a brain chemical that makes you sleepy and relaxed. It also boosts dopamine and norepinephrine, two other brain chemicals that help you feel more awake and energetic. According to actual scientists, this is why caffeine has the effects mentioned earlier. And why we are so very thankful for it.
But there’s more, and this is where it gets interesting. When I scoped out the research, I was impressed by the other types of benefits coffee can give you, which most of us probably don’t know. Let me share a few that may inspire your current affection (or addiction) for coffee:
Coffee may reduce the risk of a stroke Yep. One study published in the journal Circulation aimed to explore the possible connection between coffee intake and stroke risk among women. The researchers looked at data from more than 83,000 women. They tracked their coffee consumption habits and monitored stroke incidents over a period of time. Researchers found that moderate coffee consumption was not linked to a higher risk of stroke among women. In fact, women who drank moderate amounts daily were found to reduce the risk of stroke by 20 percent, as compared with women who didn’t drink coffee at all! The key here was moderation; excessive coffee consumption was not found to provide any additional benefits and could actually harm one’s health.
Coffee may also cut down your risk of cancer and diabetes The University of Catania in Italy conducted a comprehensive “superstudy” combining the results of 127 random trials and observational studies on coffee’s effects on human health. As reported in The Washington Post, the results of this superstudy suggest that coffee consumption can lower the risk of common cancers (like breast, colorectal, colon, endometrial, and prostate) by 2 to 20 percent, depending on the type of cancer. Coffee also appears to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease by 5 percent and Type 2 diabetes and Parkinson’s disease by around 30 percent. Moreover, people who drink coffee seem to have a lower death rate. Who doesn’t want to live longer?
Coffee may decrease your risk of getting Alzheimer’s disease Research has shown that coffee consumption can positively affect fat storage and gut health, which can help you lose weight. In fact, a review of 12 studies found that men who increased their coffee intake experienced a reduction in body fat. Similarly, a study published in the Journal of Nutrition found that women who consumed more coffee had lower levels of body fat. And if exercising to lose weight is a problem, there’s hope. Another study published in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health found that people who have one to two cups of coffee a day are 17 percent more likely to hit their exercise goals compared with those who drink less than one cup.
That reminds me, I gotta get my third cup of coffee after sending this off to my editor. Happy drinking!
Nasdaq Dorsey Wright This year, stock prices and projected Fed rates are both rising Throughout last year, when Fed rates expectations went down, stocks went up (and vice versa). That makes sense, because higher rates add expenses to companies, and make bonds more attractive to investors, meaning stocks have to perform better in the future too (and a lower starting price makes that possible). But a strange thing has been happening to stocks and rates this year… That relationship has reversed! As the chart below shows, stocks and expected Fed rates (inverted) have BOTH been rising.
5. Large Cap Funds See Outflows
6. JPM Biggest One-Day Selloff Since 2001
JPM Closed Below 50-Day
7. The U.S. Produces More Oil that Russia and Saudin Arabia
Torsten Slok, Ph.D.-Chief Economist, Partner
The US now produces more oil than Saudia Arabia and Russia, see chart below.
Philosophy becomes a useful way to address the qualities of wisdom because, as Sternberg maintains, its main branches each correspond to important traditions in understanding what’s wise and what’s not. Below is a brief summary of each, along with examples of its positive and negative possibilities:
Epistemology: Knowing what you know and what you don’t know. The wise person may seem to be all-knowing, but this branch of philosophy suggests it’s as important to make room for the possibility that you don’t. For example, it’s wise to confess to your own limitations but unwise to fake knowing something you don’t (or can never know). When you make an “educated guess,” be sure not to claim you’re 100% sure.
Ontology: Keep the good of others at the forefront of your decisions. The wise person tries to mend fences, but the unwise person tries to build them.
Ethics: Have a clear sense of right and wrong and stick to it. To be wise means that you work hard to follow through on decisions that will further a worthwhile cause. Unwise people will do everything in their power to get ahead, regardless of the consequences to others.
Logic: Be able to make decisions based on analytical judgments, not gut feelings. This could be as simple as trying to figure out why your cellphone won’t charge properly. Stabbing away at it by plugging the cord into the outlet will not get to the root of the problem, as you will need to go through a set of more rational steps.
Aesthetics: Promote harmony and grace in the world. A wise person pursues beauty for its own sake, such as enjoying a calm and peaceful shoreline at sunset. Lack of aesthetic wisdom becomes toxic, such as when people make decisions that lead to outrage (such as designing an ugly building) or cause a lack of harmony in the world (such as a dictator invading another country).
Hermeneutics: Evaluating situations based on facts and not wishes. Wise people might wish that their families got along better but be resigned to the situation as it is. The unwise person will continue to hope and dream that, somehow, their families will miraculously decide to get along.
Axiology: Use logic to make decisions. To be wise means that you rely on facts determined through analyses of evidence (which could also mean they can be disconfirmed). Unwise people let their beliefs, religious or otherwise, determine what they believe to be true.
If you were keeping score of your own wise qualities, what stuck out as your greatest strengths? Are there times when you hope for the best or when you discard an idea because you didn’t like where it came from? As you think about the people you might approach for advice, whose word are you more likely to trust?
2. Flows into Inflationary Sectors Have Been Negative
Dave Lutz Jones Trading $600mn was pulled from technology, the first time since October the sector has not led flows and its first month of net outflows since June – Twits note Fighting Tech momentum hasn’t been a winning strategy, although there’s quite an imbalance between sector flows compared to reflationary sectors.
3. APPLE Breaking Nov 2023 Lows
I show this chart weekly, we are one down day from breaking cleanly thru Nov 2023
4. CPI Showed Higher Energy Prices…XLE Breakout
Energy Select broke out of 2-year sideways pattern
5. CPI and S&P Performance
Schwab
6. After CPI 10-Year 4.5% First Time Since November
7. New Weight Loss ETF
ETF Summary Under normal circumstances, the fund seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing at least 80% of its net assets, which include borrowings for investment purposes, in publicly listed companies that derive at least 50% of revenues from products or services related to the treatment of cardiovascular diseases and/or metabolic diseases, as defined by the Centers for Diseases Control and Preventions. The fund generally is expected to consist of more than 15 companies but not more than 100 companies. The fund is non-diversified.
WSJ Investors have been bracing for waves of loan maturities in commercial real estate, which could force a lot of tough choices about whether to restructure or write off mortgages to landlords struggling with occupancy and rental rates. But it didn’t quite play out as expected last year. MSCI Real Assets noted in a recent report that $214 billion in mortgages slated for maturity in 2023 were, to their knowledge, not refinanced, nor was there a sale of the underlying property. “We believe that these loans have been granted some short-term extension to their maturity date,” MSCI Real Assets wrote.
9. Students Are Likely Writing Millions of Papers With AI
Wired by Amanda Hoover
Turnitin, a service that checks papers for plagiarism, says its detection tool found millions of papers that may have a significant amount of AI-generated content.
Students have submitted more than 22 million papers that may have used generative AI in the past year, new data released by plagiarism detection company Turnitin shows. A year ago, Turnitin rolled out an AI writing detection tool that was trained on its trove of papers written by students as well as other AI-generated texts. Since then, more than 200 million papers have been reviewed by the detector, predominantly written by high school and college students. Turnitin found that 11 percent may contain AI-written language in 20 percent of its content, with 3 percent of the total papers reviewed getting flagged for having 80 percent or more AI writing. (Turnitin is owned by Advance, which also owns Condé Nast, publisher of WIRED.) Turnitin says its detector has a false positive rate of less than 1 percent when analyzing full documents.
New research shares more insight into why music helps the brain work faster and better.
Your playlist may be more valuable than you think.
Research has long indicated that music has the potential to boost concentration and performance on cognitive tasks such as writing or spatial reasoning, and that music can also be a powerful tool for emotional regulation. Now, researchers from New York University Tandon School of Engineering have begun to show how these two principles may work together. “Maintaining a proper level of cognitive arousal [also known as ‘intensity of emotion’] may result in being more productive throughout daily cognitive activities,” writes Rose Faghih, associate professor of biomedical engineering, along with her associates who co-authored a new study analyzing how music choices influence productivity. Faghih and her colleagues found that listening to exciting music enabled five out of six participants to register higher performance on cognitive tasks. But the study is interesting because it was inspired by the Yerkes-Dodson law, a little-known law of psychology designed to model the relationship between stress and behavior, developed over a hundred years ago. And while this study is new with a small sample size, it builds on previous neuroscience research that analyzed the influence of background music on participants’ emotions and performance. What is the Yerkes-Dodson law, and how does it relate to previously published neuroscience research? And more important, how can all of this knowledge help you? To answer these questions, let’s dive more deeply into the research and see how you can put these learnings to work. (If you find value in this lesson, you might be interested in my free course, which teaches you how to build emotional intelligence in yourself and your team.)
The Yerkes-Dodson Law, Neuroscience, and How to Increase Performance The Yerkes-Dodson law was originally developed back in 1908 by psychologists Robert Yerkes and John Dodson. It states that too little arousal (stress) causes you to become bored and decreases motivation. As arousal increases, so does your motivation, causing you to perform better at certain tasks. At a certain point, though, you reach an optimal level of arousal and performance; after that, stress causes your performance to decrease. In the NYU study, participants selected two types of music: the first with calming music components to mimic a low arousal environment, and a second with more exciting components for a high arousal environment. The researchers then used physiological data such as skin surface temperature, respiration, and electrocardiogram as well as behavioral signals such as facial expression. As the findings indicated, the participants demonstrated overall better performance when listening to the exciting background music. However, the researchers also found that participants’ performance conformed with the Yerkes-Dodson law. The authors of the study admit that several factors such as “the learning effect, the nature of the task, the participant’s baseline, and the type of applied music, can impact the outcome”; however, they also acknowledge that “it might be feasible to enhance cognitive performance and shift one’s arousal from either the left or right side of the curve using music.” As mentioned, this new research actually builds on decades of brain research. For example, in 2020, a group of neuroscientists used magnetic resonance imaging to investigate the influence of music on different emotions and performance. They found that “happy and high-arousing music” was associated with faster response times and greater activations of certain parts of the brain while performing certain tasks. A separate study of 56 university students conducted in 2010 found that listening to excerpts of music from Mozart increased the students’ speed and accuracy when performing certain cognitive tasks. I can endorse the results of this research from my own personal experience. For years I’ve been using specific playlists to help me achieve flow for different types of tasks. As someone who does a large amount of creative work, I’ve found that starting with calm music, while gradually ramping up to more excited music, helps me reach a state of peak productivity. This is especially true when I’m working on tasks with a medium cognitive load–they’re tasks that require a degree of concentration, but I’ve done them enough times that I often tend to get bored and my mind starts to wander. With the right music, though, my mind and emotions seem to be sufficiently stimulated, so that not only am I able to continue working for long periods of time, but I stay motivated throughout the entire work period. For example, the song on the top of my “writing” playlist: The theme from the Christopher Nolan film Interstellar, which was composed by Hans Zimmer and debuted on the film’s soundtrack back in 2014. (I prefer the piano version, which you can hear here.) Although it starts slow, it gradually builds momentum and helps me get into a productive flow. So, how can all of this help you? If you find there are certain parts of your work that get stale or monotonous, you might try curating a playlist of songs that get you going. You can arrange them in order of excitement, so that you start with a mild tune and progress to more stimulating ones. Then, the next time you find yourself getting distracted because you lack mental stimulation, try listening to your playlist as you work. Doing this may provide just the spark you need. So, if you’re interested in leveraging your brain to increase productivity and performance, learn from the Yerkes-Dodson law and decades of neuroscience research: Design your playlist to motivate, inspire, and touch your emotions. Then, get ready to find your flow.
If you use artificial intelligence to write your resume — or get a bit too creative with the design — you could be hurting your chances of landing a job.
The biggest red flag hiring managers look for in job candidates is an AI-generated resume, according to new research from Resume Genius, which surveyed 625 hiring managers across the U.S. Other resume faux pas include poor formatting and typos.
Here are the three biggest resume red flags that could cost you a job offer, and how to avoid them, according to a hiring expert:
AI-generated resumes
More than half (53%) of hiring managers say they have reservations about resumes that include AI-generated content, with 20% calling it a “critical issue” that might prevent them from hiring someone.
“It’s extremely important that your resume is a truthful, authentic reflection of the skills and experience you bring to the table,” says Michelle Reisdorf, district director at recruitment firm Robert Half. “If you use AI to write a resume for you in minutes, it tells me you didn’t put a lot of time and thought into applying to my job.”
Reisdorf, who has worked in recruiting and hiring for over 30 years, still encourages jobseekers to use AI to review and edit their resume — but says you should write the first draft.
“AI is great for proofreading and enhancing what you’ve already written, but it’s not a one-stop shop to generate the perfect resume,” she adds. “Recruiters will be able to tell if you’re not including specific details from your past jobs or writing in a personal, human voice.”
Frequent job-hopping
Similarly, resumes showing a pattern of frequent job-hopping make 50% of hiring managers hesitant to move forward with a candidate, Resume Genius found.
This red flag is trickier to avoid: If you’ve switched jobs a lot, you can’t lie about your employment history. Plus, hiring managers have different definitions of what constitutes excessive job-hopping.
For some, it might be changing jobs every 1-2 years, while others would argue it’s a shorter timeframe (opting to move after less than a year).
You don’t have to explain every time you switched roles, “as most recruiters aren’t looking for that on the first pass,” Reisdorf says. “They want to know if you have the skills and the experience to do the job well — your past experiences and commitment to work are usually saved for the interview.”
If you have several short stints on your resume, however, Reisdorf recommends including a brief context (1-2 sentences) of your job changes elsewhere on your application.
“Most online applications will have text fields for additional comments or ‘reasons for leaving’ after you upload your resume,” she explains. “That’s a good place to acknowledge any job-hopping without drawing too much attention to it.”
Otherwise, save any explanations of your career choices for the interview.
Poor formatting
Another red flag hiring managers look out for on resumes is poor formatting, whether it’s a disorganized layout, using an obscure font or simply forgetting to spell-check.
Reisdorf says clean, simple resumes are the most effective as they’re easy for anyone to read and understand. That means using a basic black font, trimming it to one page and having clearly labeled, organized sections.
Put simply, you want a recruiter’s attention to be focused on your accomplishments — not a bold typeface choice or cluttered layout.
Proofreading for any spelling or grammar mistakes before submitting your resume is important, too, Reisdorf says, because it shows your potential employer that you’re detail-oriented and conscientious.
“Ultimately, you want the hiring manager to focus on you, as the candidate, versus the mistakes on your resume,” says Reisdorf. “Your resume should make them excited to interview and, hopefully, hire you.”
This chart compares Gold ETF GLD to U.S. Dollar…straight up since Feb.
4. A Couple of Popular Consumer Stocks with Gaps Down
ULTA -23% from highs.
5. China has More Chipmaking Capacity than the Rest of World Combined
6. Supply and Demand for Stocks…More Buybacks and Less IPOs=Shrinking Supply
@Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm) Supply & Demand: One thing to remember amid all the variables and calculations and prognostications on the stockmarket… is that it is after all, a market. And what does ECON101 tell us about markets? Price is the balancing factor between supply and demand. The chart below shows what’s been happening on the supply side of the equation (in other words: more buybacks and less IPOs/issuance = shrinking supply, shrinking supply ceteris paribus = higher prices).
7. Three Stable Coins Account for 60% of Trading Volume in Crypto
The top three stablecoins accounted for more than 60% of trading volume of the five most traded cryptocurrencies on Monday.
Stablecoin issuance serves as a measure of new capital entering the market.
Stablecoins accounted for more than half of all daily trading volume among the most traded cryptocurrencies Monday.
Tether, First Digital USD, and USDC each clocked around $58 billion, $7.5 billion and $7.1 billion, respectively, CoinGecko data shows.
Collectively, these three stablecoins made up more than 60% of the trading volume of the five most traded cryptocurrencies that day. Bitcoin reached about $34 billion, while Ethereum saw $20 billion.
Stablecoins “have attracted the most capital, emphasising investors’ inclination towards stability and reliability over other alternatives,” Vincent Chok, CEO of First Digital, told DL News.
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies with values typically pegged to fiat currencies like the US dollar. They provide an avenue for traders to park their funds during highly volatile periods.
“Stablecoins are an extremely crucial asset for traders both from a stability perspective and a leverage perspective,” Pat Doyle, a blockchain researcher at Amberdata, told DL News.
In March 2020, uncertainty gripped the world as the COVID-19 pandemic spread rapidly. The markets were crashing. Businesses were shutting down. Schools and universities closed their doors. Strict lockdown measures confided millions to their homes. Brent Underwood, a co-founder here at Daily Stoic and whose inspiring journeywe’ve been sharingover the past month, thought he’d found the perfect place to ride out the pandemic—a small California ghost town called Cerro Gordo he’d been slowly renovating and turning into a resort. It was safe and isolated, beautiful and quiet…for a second. Then a freak series of snow storms trapped him there in Cerro Gordo for weeks with dwindling supplies and no running water. His retreat turned suddenly into a prison. Then he had a bout with appendicitis that required him to drive himself 2 hours to the closest clinic. As we’ve said before, life comes at you fast. And once they start coming, they don’t stop coming. The rest of the snow melted. Work progressed on the town. Media attention poured in. The New York Times profiled him and the town in a long-awaited piece. And then, before he even had time to send the article to his family, the town’s crown jewel—the American Hotel—burned to the ground…exactly 149 years to the day from the day it had opened. From triumph to disaster in a matter of hours. Seneca himself tells the story of Rome burning to the ground and how the city of Lyons came to her aid with a large donation. Little did Lyons know that within a year Rome would be returning the favor because Lyons had burned. Life is unpredictable…yet somehow very predictable. Life comes at us fast. It doesn’t stop. It puffs us up and brings us low. It blesses and curses us. All we can do is be ready. All we can do is pick up the pieces and keep going.
Helped mainly by the massive gain since late October, the S&P 500’s one-year trailing total return through the end of March clocked in at an eye-watering 30.5%, or nearly triple the historical average of 11.8%. While the rally over the last year has been well above average, it followed a period of weak returns in the prior year. When you combine the last two years, the S&P 500’s annualized gain of 9.7% is nearly a full percentage point below the long-term historical average. Looking out over the last five and ten years, annualized returns have been well above average, but over the prior twenty years, the S&P 500’s performance has been sub-par.
Equity market returns may have been below average over the last two and twenty years, but you won’t find many equity investors looking to trade shoes with investors hiding out in long-term (LT) US Treasuries. The chart below shows the annualized total return of the Bank of America/Merrill Lynch index of 10+ Year US Treasuries over various timeframes. Over the last year, LT Treasuries declined 4.8% versus a long-term average annualized gain of 8.1%. If you think that’s bad, check out the two-year annualized decline of 13.1%…in Treasuries! That’s a 25% haircut! Even over the last five years, LT Treasury returns have been negative to the tune of 1.6% annualized. To find – not better than average – but simply positive returns, you have to go out to the ten-year window, where the total return is just 1.6% annualized and still seven percentage points less than the historical average. While technically not a lost decade, it’s been a loser of a decade for sure.
2.Best and Worst ETFs Q1
Nasdaq Dorsey Wright
3.Buybacks Huge Part of Demand for Stocks.
The Daily Shot Brief Equities: Goldman sees share buybacks driving demand for stocks this year.
5.$21 Trillion in T-Bill Issuance Past 12 Months-B of A Research
6.S&P Metals and Mining ETF Closing in on 2022 Highs.
7.Growth vs. Value
Barrons Active funds now have 56% less exposure to value investments than to momentum factors—a 15-year low, according to Subramanian. “Funds looking for cheap stocks based on low price-earnings valuations is at a “max underweight,” she adds. “A brain drain and asset drain, with 40% fewer funds, from active fundamental to passive and private suggest markets may be less efficient and offer more alpha potential.”
Value has had its share of false starts. But Subramanian writes that value is historically cheap at a time investors could become more attuned to the price they are paying for stocks.
Over the last decade, roughly 150 active large value funds have gone extinct, Morningstar’s Director of Manager Research Russel Kinnel said via email. That could mean a bigger opportunity for those stockpickers who stuck with value if this turnaround materializes.
Tens of millions stolen from money storage facility in one of the largest cash heists in Southern California
ANDREW BLANKSTEIN AND MINYVONNE BURKE
Thieves stole tens of millions of dollars from a money storage facility in what is being called one of the largest cash heists in Southern California.
The robbery happened on Easter Sunday at a GardaWorld facility. NBC Los Angeles reported that it occurred in the 15000 block of Roxford Street in Sylmar in Los Angeles’ San Fernando Valley.Burglars breached the building as well as the safe where the facility stores money, Los Angeles Police Department Cmdr. Elaine Morales told the Los Angeles Times.While the Times reported that as much as $30 million was taken, multiple law enforcement sources familiar with the matter told NBC News they are trying to assess exactly how much money was taken.
Morales did not respond to a request for comment on Thursday, and a spokesperson for the LAPD would not confirm details in the Times’ article.The LAPD and the FBI are conducting a joint investigation, the LAPD spokesperson said. The FBI and GardaWorld were not immediately available for comment.
GardaWorld says on its website that it is a “long-standing security partner of choice to some of the most prominent brands, Fortune 500 corporations and governments.” Its mission is to protect its clients’ assets and operations.The company has 425 branch offices across 45 countries, according to its website. An employee at GardaWorld told NBC Los Angeles “the place is pretty secure.”
“They check that the alarm is set up, so, just to think that they were able to go through the security system and get away with all that money, it’s a shocker,” said the employee, who asked to remain anonymous.The alleged heist is said to be one of the largest in Southern California and comes two years after the multimillion-dollar theft of jewelry and gemstones from a Brink’s tractor-trailer while the driver was inside asleep. A second driver was away from the vehicle for nearly 30 minutes getting food inside a rest stop. Some have said thieves took 22 bags worth less than $10 million while others believe it was roughly $100 million. No arrests have been made. On Sept. 12, 1997, $18.9 million was stolen from the former site of the Dunbar Armored facility on Mateo Street in Los Angeles. The robbers were eventually caught, the Los Angeles Times reported.
Gold bullion — physical gold has outperformed gold-mining company shares over the past three years by one of the largest margins in decades. Gold recently hit a new all-time high above $2,200 an ounce, while the PHLX Gold/Silver Index XAU is below where it stood three years ago — as you can see in the chart below.
Investors need not waste time worrying about what they can’t control, like market volatility and its many causes, because there is a greater threat to their financial success and it comes from within.
The internal battle we face is a war between our primitive minds and our current reality, where some of these primal survival skills are outdated, if not useless. The cognitive biases that kept the species alive, can lead to making less than optimal financial decisions – especially if we are unaware of them.
According to James Clear (Atomic Habits), much of our behavior is rooted in reducing uncertainty, relieving anxiety, and winning social acceptance/approval. At the heart of these inclinations is the goal of propagation of the species. Our cognitive biases encourage us to be part of a tribe to stay safe (and alive) in order to multiply. But for a modern-day investor, the greatest success comes from taking risk, and going against the crowd’s greed or fear. Understanding these cognitive biases is crucial to overriding them and not mistaking them as “gut instincts.”
The Last Experience Might Not Be Replicated
Our ability to not repeat mistakes is the Recency Effect at work, which is how we learn not to touch a hot stove. We associate the last experience in a given situation as one that will be replicated. But, not all situations have as certain an outcome as this. When it comes to investing, this bias leaves investors believing that the next experience they have will be the same as their last (for better, or for worse). This can lead investors to be overly fearful, sitting in cash at the worst time; or, investing aggressively, thinking the next new high is on the horizon. However, just because it happened last time isn’t a strategy.
Fear is Instinct, Not Intuition
Survival instincts have us place more emphasis on negative thoughts and perceived threats. This Attentional Cognitive Bias even shapes the way we remember experiences. We are more likely to remember the magnitude of the pain of loss than the highs from the joy of a win. When combined with the Recency Effect, it is a potent cocktail that keeps once-bitten shy investors perpetually sitting on the sidelines, waiting to re-enter, and never able to jump back in. The result is missed opportunity and wasted years that could have been spent compounding investment results to build wealth overtime.
Surrounded by Information and Agreement Clouds Judgment
A cognitive bias made particularly potent in our modern era is Availability Heuristic, which places greater importance on information that is readily available (e.g., virally spread) regardless of its merit. In addition, algorithms serve up a daily diet of content that echoes what we already believe. And this Confirmation Bias creates confidence that we are right because there is a whole tribe of people in agreement. This is how irrational exuberance takes hold, leading investors to gorge en masse on stocks that cost more than they are actually worth.
Dial Back on Emotion
The only way to handle our modern day investment challenges is to dial back on the very thing that helped keep us alive – our emotional response to stimuli. Fortunately, there is data going back to the 1920s that shows how different types of investments have performed over various time frames (with stocks being the strongest performer). We can look to volatile times in the market’s history and see now that these were buying opportunities for long-term investors. While past performance is no guarantee of future results, probability is all an investor can look to.
Still, on an emotional level it can be difficult to make the decision to invest. This is where automation and technology can be used to establish a systematic investment plan to buy every month, regardless of market performance. Automation frees investors from the angst of decision making, or trying to time their investments. It offers a reprieve against the onslaught of information (and misinformation) that triggers our cognitive biases.
Most importantly, it makes it easier to tune out the noise, resist where our primitive minds would lead us, and learn to get comfortable with the uncomfortable. And perhaps this is the greatest survival skill of all.
Dave Lutz Jones Trading European stocks just marked their best quarter in a year as traders remained optimistic about the economy and that interest rates would come down soon. The spotlight is turning to corporate earnings to drive the next leg of the rally in the region’s shares. Analysts expect profits to rebound 4% in 2024 after slumping last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg
4. Silver Following Gold Break-Out
SLV moves above Dec 2023 levels.
5. Gold Miners Have Been Lagging Gold but Technicals Changing
10. 8 Things I Managed to Get Right When I Retired
Psychology Today Meg Selig
What did that path look like? Here is a rough account of my retirement journey:
1. I had enough money. I was fortunate to build my retirement on a solid financial foundation. I say “fortunate” because I was not money-savvy during most of my early life. Just by luck, my various jobs in education and counseling were all part of the same healthy public school retirement system. When I was ready to retire after over 32 years in education, a traditional pension was waiting for me. Thanks to my union, the National Education Association (NEA), I was able to escape the burden of money worries that contribute to anxiety and depression among retirees and workers alike.
2. I had a sense of purpose. While I loved my last, longest, and best job as a counselor at our local community college, I had an intense desire to write a book on successful habit change. I already was teaching a short personal development course inspired by the loss of a wonderful aunt who had died from lung cancer because she couldn’t stop smoking cigarettes. I figured it was now or never for my writing ambitions. But would it work out? Freelance writing is a chancy business. I’m not a risk-taker nor particularly entrepreneurial. What would I do with myself if I had no job or meaningful preoccupation? I sensed that, for me, a sense of purpose would be essential to a happy retirement. (As it turns out, many retirees feel the same way.)
3. I retired gradually. To hedge my bets, I decided to continue to work part-time at the college after retirement. I checked with my supervisor; luckily, he was happy that I could still be a resource for the counseling department even after I took the retirement plunge. I would be able to teach short courses part-time, plus I could help out during registration. I worked part-time for about four years while I labored on the book that would become Changepower! 37 Secrets to Habit Change Success. Nowadays, retiring gradually is often dubbed a “phased retirement.” A Yahoo! Finance article predicts that phased retirements will be the wave of the future; if so, I was just slightly ahead of my time.
4. I stayed in touch with my work friends. I still meet regularly with my beloved colleagues from the college. And “beloved” is not too strong a word to describe how I feel about my fellow and sister workers. Two colleagues and I have had monthly lunches together for at least 10 years. My wonderful supervisor of over 20 years throws a yearly holiday party that I would not miss for the world. Here, I reconnect with lovely people, catch up, and reminisce.
5. I had a little bit of luck—OK, a lot of luck. With the help of another colleague, I succeeded in finding a publisher for my book. The cream in the coffee was that the publisher linked me to the blogging opportunity here at Psychology Today, a creative outlet that I’ve enjoyed for 14 years and counting. At that point, I retired from part-time work at the college and became a full-time author.
6. I created a helpful structure for my days. Some people nearing retirement probably have a rosy picture of sleeping late and then doing whatever they want whenever they want. More power to them. But oddly enough, research indicates that a predictable and pleasant daily structure is linked with both happiness and mental health. My weekday schedule was built around my goals of health, purpose, pleasure, and relationships. For the curious, it usually includes breakfast, 20-30 minutes of exercise, business details and email, lunch with friends or with the New York Times crossword puzzle, writing, watching Jeopardy, dinner, reading, or TV.
7. I am grateful to have a solid support system of family and friends. I have a supportive partner who loves to cook. He cooks dinner! Think of the time I save. Although my family lives elsewhere, we speak frequently and visit regularly. I Zoom with my granddaughter once a week. I have regular lunches or coffees with close friends.
8. I make room for volunteer work, fun, and mini-adventures. While our interest in big travel has waned as we’ve aged, we still enjoy one-tank trips to various spots near home and are dedicated in-town tourists.
2. History of S&P Returns After Back to Back 10% Quarters
From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading Bespoke notes the S&P just had the second straight quarter of double-digit percentage gains. That hasn’t happened in 12 years.
10. Stephen A. Smith says opportunities are ‘the only thing that should be equal,’ not outcome
Opinion by Alexander Hall
Stephen A. Smith, an ESPN commentator known for his hot takes on sports and politics, sounded off on the idea that many Americans, including those in politics, expect equality of outcome rather than opportunity.
During an appearance on the PBD Podcast hosted by Patrick Bet-David, Smith called upon Americans to accept the fact that “people who produce more ultimately end up more successful than those who don’t.”
He went on to observe, “We just have too many people in this world, especially on Capitol Hill as well, that want to give this impression or want to literally go about the business of changing that and making things equal. The only thing that should be equal is opportunities. But what you receive from your level of production is on you.”
His speech on meritocracy began earlier in the podcast when he said, “One of the things that I have a problem with when I look at things that are transpiring in this country, you can’t in the same breath talk about capitalism, talk about how it’s equal opportunity that we want, but everybody doesn’t deserve the same, it’s about your level of production. Some people are high-end earners, some people are high-level producers and stuff. And you know, they’re getting treated, they might earn more than somebody that just don’t have that skill set. That’s the world we’re living in.”
By contrast, the commentator argued that there are “a lot of people here that want to act as if ‘You know what? We’re after a different culture. We want everything the same for everybody.’” To those people, he declared, “You’re lying. You are lying.”
Smith then recalled he and his mother’s humble origins: “I grew up in the streets of Hollis, Queens, New York City. My mother was on welfare for a little while. And it killed her, killed her.”
“Wow,” Bet-David replied.
The sports commentator added “She was sick to her stomach that we had to get government cheese and bread and all of this stuff, and she got the hell off of it as soon as she possibly could. And I know that when she sent me out there to work, she didn’t send me out there to be like just anybody. She sent me out there to be the best that I can be. Why? So I can earn more for myself than the average typical person, and most people in a capitalistic society believe in that.”
Smith went on to reiterate his earlier critique, “When you have folks walking around, like everybody is supposed to be the same — that’s nonsense. You’re lying to the American public, you’re lying to yourself, it’s not true. And in the end, people who produce more ultimately end up more successful than those who don’t.”
He added, “Jimmy Johnson, the former coach of the Dallas Cowboys said it best, ‘I will be very consistent in my inconsistencies. Those who produce will be treated better than those who don’t.’ And I appreciated his candor. Whether you like it or don’t, that’s the reality.”
At an aggregate level, companies in the S&P 500 Index excluding financials are holding cash at levels that are near 10-year highs. This could fuel stock buybacks, M&A activity or dividend payments. For instance, over the last few months, there has been an increase in M&A activity among some larger oil and pharmaceutical companies, deals that could help drive long-term earnings growth. Companies have also been increasing their dividend payouts, which contribute to total stock returns. Recent high-profile examples are Meta and Salesforce announcing their first-ever dividends, which bode well for capital allocation discipline.
Capital expenditures will no doubt be on the rise to meet the needs of technology companies, including the large investment in data centers required for AI, but also for the infrastructure investment needed to support the reshoring of supply chains. This investment should translate into steady cash flow growth for a broad array of companies across many sectors.
3. Funds that Systematically Trade Options has Grown 51% in One Year
Dave Lutz Jones Trading Goldman says AUM of funds that systematically trade options has grown 51% year-over-year…
4. Another EV Stock Falling…Battery Maker CATL -15% One-Year
5. Uber Ride Since Covid
Vitaliy N. Katsenelson We bought Uber a few months before the pandemic. (I wrote about it here). Uber’s stock went up 30% right after we bought it and then declined around 80% within months (the shutdown economy was not good for the ride-sharing business). As the economy started to reopen, the stock went up a lot (we almost doubled our money on the original purchase). Then it more than halved. Two years later, it has tripled from that point.
Barrons By Paul R. La Monica Even if you assume that TMTG revenue ended the year at $6.8 million—double its first nine months—the stock would be valued at a price-to-sales ratio of more than 1,200. Meta, by comparison, trades at nine times 2023 sales, while Snap goes for four times trailing revenue. Shorting the stock looks tempting, but that is also risky. Short sellers borrow stock and sell it, aiming to buy it back at a lower price. Annualized borrowing costs are now steep, however, averaging 150%. And with nearly 12% of shares held short, the stock is vulnerable to a squeeze, whereby a stock can pop as short traders are forced to liquidate shares. According to research firm S3 Partners, DWAC/DJT shorts have lost $158 million so far this year, including $93 million in March.
Chartr Blog While artificial intelligence dominates the headlines of business and tech newspapers around the country, America’s energy industry has been quietly thriving. Indeed, 3 weeks ago the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that the US had produced the equivalent of 12.9 million barrels of crude oil and condensate per day last year, 28% more than the world’s previous top producer, Russia, and 33% more than even the oil-rich Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
And, it’s not just oil.
Thanks to hydraulic fracturing (or fracking), a wave of previously inaccessible, or at least uneconomical, oil and gas reserves are now being extracted at record speed. Indeed, as recently as 2015, America’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) never left the country: now it’s a key component of one of the country’s most geopolitically important exports.
Uncomfortable truth: While America’s fossil fuel output is breaking records, sensors in the world’s oceans are also reading temperatures that we’ve never seen before, leaving researchers and scientists “astounded”. www.chartr.com
8. Market Keeps Rising But Most Investors “Expect Correction” and $6 Trillion in Cash
From Callum Thomas Blog @Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm) Correction Risk? Yet, interestingly enough, apparently most people expect a correction. Perhaps they expect it to be a small bump in the upward sloping road — a dip/pullback to buy, rather than something to hedge.
1. Market Returns Around End of Fed Rate Hiking Cycle
JP Morgan Guide to Markets
2. Record High Liquidity
Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, Partner One way to measure liquidity is to add bank reserves and money market assets, see chart below, which shows that there is record-high liquidity to push stock prices higher and credit spreads tighter. In particular, once the Fed starts lowering interest rates, some of the $6trn in money market funds is likely to find its way into stocks and credit.
3. Small Cap Stocks Not Joining Rally Yet.
Micro Cap Stocks +2% 2024
Small Cap Stocks that make money IJS-S&P small cap 600 -1.5% 2024
4. Apple Biggest Underperformance vs. S&P Since 2013
5. Tesla vs. S&P Chart
6. S&P Global downgrades outlooks on five regional US banks to ‘negative’
By Reuters The S&P Global logo is displayed on its offices in the financial district in New York City, U.S., December 13, 2018. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab March 26 (Reuters) – Ratings agency S&P Global on Tuesday downgraded five regional U.S. banks to due to their commercial real estate (CRE) exposures, in a move likely to reignite investor concerns about the health of the sector. The ratings agency downgraded First Commonwealth Financial (FCF.N), opens new tab, M&T Bank (MTB.N), opens new tab, Synovus Financial (SNV.N), opens new tab, Trustmark (TRMK.O), opens new tab and Valley National Bancorp (VLY.O), opens new tab to “negative” from “stable,” it said. “The negative outlook revisions reflect the possibility that stress in CRE markets may hurt the asset quality and performance of the five banks, which have some of the highest exposures to CRE loans among banks we rate,” S&P said. Representatives for the banks did not immediately respond to request for comments outside business hours. As of Tuesday, S&P had negative outlooks on nine U.S. banks, or 18% of those it rates, it said, adding most of those ratings “relate, at least in part to sizable CRE exposures.” The company rates a range of banks of varying sizes. S&P Global downgrades outlooks on five regional US banks to ‘negative’ | Reuters
KRE Regional Bank ETF vs. S&P sideways along lows.
But starting in mid-January, the year-over-year increases of the listing price shrank and then started hobbling along the 0% line, and in the most recent week, the listing price was below a year ago (-0.6%), as sellers face more competition from other sellers and fewer buyers. This year-over-year weakness in the listing price is an indicator that the median sold price through the spring selling season will also see year-over-year weakness. In its note sent out two days ago, Realtor.com explained: “It marks the first week of year-over-year price declines since July 2023, attributed to mortgage rates hovering around 7% and an ongoing increase in available for-sale homes, notably an upsurge in affordable listings spotlighted in the February Realtor.com Housing Trends Report. With mortgage rates nearly returning to 7% in February, many potential buyers are postponing their purchasing plans in hopes of securing lower rates. Consequently, lower buyer competitions exerted downward pressure on prices.”
Prices were below their 2022 peaks in 9 metros of the 20 metros in the Case-Shiller index (% from their respective peak in 2022, month of peak):
Jack Ablin Cresset Magnificent Seven insiders have unloaded nearly $13 billion of stock over the last six months, the most selling in over a year. Michael Dell unloaded nearly $340 million of his eponymous stock earlier this month. This marked increase in insider selling may be an indication that the recent tech stock rally, fueled by excitement over generative AI, might face headwinds.
9. Daniel Kahneman Father of Behavioral Economics Dies
Morningbrew
Daniel Kahneman, the father of behavioral economics, died yesterday at 90 years old. He’s best known for applying psychology to economics and uncovering biases and mental shortcuts that make people act irrationally, as he chronicled in his best-selling book Thinking, Fast and Slow. Kahneman, along with his long-time collaborator and friend Amos Tversky, developed “prospect theory,” or loss-aversion theory, which earned him the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2002 (which he shared with fellow economist Vernon Smith). The idea is that people value losses and gains differently, so we feel more bad about losing $100 than we feel good about making the same amount. He applied this theory to investors, who had previously been considered rational decision-makers. It shows up elsewhere, too—for example, golfers putt better when they’re facing the loss of a stroke than when they might gain one. A few other biases he identified that are probably buried in your brain (whether or not you learned them in Psych 101):
The “peak-end rule” that people remember an experience primarily based on how they felt at its most intense moment and the final part of it. It’s why you consider a whole vacation good if the last day was good—or the opposite.
The conjunction fallacy where people erroneously think the probability of two things being true is more likely than just one thing, which the famous “Linda the Bank Teller” problem illustrates.
For further reading: Kahneman and Tversky were the center of Michael Lewis’s 2016 book, The Undoing Project.—MM
Kierkegaard’s rules for a more authentic, meaningful life.
Søren Kierkegaard, a Danish philosopher, theologian, and poet is considered by many to be the father of existentialism. His work focuses on individual experience and the importance of personal choice and commitment, and his philosophy offers insights into living authentically and finding fulfillment amidst the distractions and pressures of the modern world.
In the course of Kierkegaard’s writings, instructive themes emerge for how to navigate life’s complexities with integrity and purpose. Here are four:
1. Cultivate Self-Awareness and Introspection
Kierkegaard emphasized the importance of self-awareness and introspection as foundational to understanding one’s own existence and making authentic choices. He argued that true self-knowledge requires a deep and honest examination of one’s thoughts, feelings, and motivations, involving questioning assumptions and beliefs inherited from culture and upbringing, a theme echoed in his fascination with Socratic self-knowledge.
In early autobiographical reflections, Kierkegaard acknowledged an enjoyment of attention and recognition as a personal weakness, exemplifying the kind of self-scrutiny he advocated. In The Sickness Unto Death, he explored despair as arising from a lack of self-awareness and the failure to live up to one’s own ideals. Kierkegaard’s struggle with melancholy and sharp self-critique is evident in his journals and correspondences, where he often reflected on his own shortcomings and the nature of existence. Introspection following his broken engagement with Regine Olsen contributed to many of his profound insights about the self and its complexities. Elsewhere, he examined the role of self-awareness in authenticity.
2. Embrace Uncertainty and Ambiguity
Kierkegaard’s philosophy also challenges us to embrace uncertainty and ambiguity. He contended that life’s complexities cannot be reduced to simple answers or solutions. Instead, we should be willing to live with paradox and contradiction, remaining open to new ideas and perspectives. This openness requires a willingness to change our minds in the face of new information, a stance that stands in contrast to the search for absolute certainty. Kierkegaard critiqued a purely aesthetic or contemplative conception of self-knowledge and emphasized the importance of engaging with life’s uncertainties actively and responsibly.
Kierkegaard employed a writing technique he called “indirect communication” to illustrate the complexity of existence and the limitations of direct knowledge. He did so in several ways, especially by publishing writings in which fictitious authors engaged in dialectical dialogue, each representing distinct perspectives and worldviews. He also used irony and paradox to provoke readers to think beyond surface-level understanding. And he used a technique he called “double reflection” in which he presented ideas in a way that required readers to reflect not only on the content of the text but also on their own existence and relationship to the ideas presented.
Kierkegaard often refused to conform to societal expectations, as seen in his critique of the established church and resistance to an academic career. He challenged prevailing views of his time, advocating for a personal leap of faith rather than adherence to systematic or institutionalized belief systems.
3. Take Responsibility for Your Life and Choices
A central tenet of Kierkegaard’s philosophy is the imperative to take responsibility for one’s own life and choices. He argued that individuals cannot blame their circumstances or external factors for their problems. Instead, they must own their thoughts and actions, acknowledging their weaknesses and flaws. This process of self-improvement and growth is essential for overcoming despair and achieving a state of self-acceptance. Kierkegaard’s emphasis on the teleological view of the self and the quest for narrative unity highlights the ongoing nature of this responsibility.
Kierkegaard’s insistence on personal responsibility was a recurring theme in his work. He believed that individuals must take responsibility for their own existence, choices, and the meaning they ascribe to their lives. One might contend that his decision to pursue a writing career over a more conventional path was a kind of existential reflection of this theme. His works, including Either/Or and The Concept of Anxiety, explore the necessity of making choices and the ethical implications of those choices.
4. Accept Your Own Mortality
Finally, Kierkegaard urges us to embrace our own mortality, recognizing that life is fleeting and impermanent. Accepting the uncertainty of life and the inevitability of death can lead to a sense of peace and contentment that transcends fears and anxieties. This acceptance encourages living in the present moment, fully engaging with the richness of life’s experiences. Kierkegaard’s perspective on faith and the presence of God deeply shaped his conception of acceptance, as he suggested that a deeper sense of purpose and meaning can be found in our utter dependence upon God.
Kierkegaard’s reflections on the finite nature of existence are central to his thought. In Concluding Unscientific Postscript, he discussed the significance of an individual’s subjective relationship to truth, including an awareness of mortality. Kierkegaard’s health issues and early deaths in his family, including of his father and several siblings, influenced his preoccupation with mortality and the urgency of living authentically. Kierkegaard’s personal experiences with loss and contemplations of death are reflected in his philosophical works, where he emphasized the importance of living in the present and making meaningful choices in the face of life’s transience.
Kierkegaard’s philosophy remains profoundly relevant, providing valuable insights into the human condition.
PIPER SANDLER-The team found that, without exception, each of these selloffs has been primarily driven by one of three things: rising unemployment, rising bond yields or some kind of global exogenous shock. Sometimes, it has been a combination, as was the case during the two equity-market corrections that occurred during 1980. So, which is most likely to trigger the next 10% correction? According to Kantrowitz and his team, rising yields are the biggest threat to tranquil markets. Rising yields also caused the most recent correction, which ended on Oct. 27 with the S&P 500 down 10.3%.
Over the past two years, equities’ sensitivity to higher yields has reached near-record levels last seen near the peak of the dot-com bubble on a rolling 26-week basis. This suggests stocks could still react negatively if long-term bond yields continue to climb, even though equities have been largely immune to the rebound in yields since the start of 2024.
“We’ve written a lot about how rate-sensitive equity markets are today. As such, the biggest risk that we see to equities in 2024 would be a rise in rates,” Kantrowitz and his team wrote.
Businesses always seem to take longer to succeed than a new owner expects. Seth Godin once said that overnight success in startups takes about six years, and Seth is an optimist. Thus we all look for shortcuts. Execution shortcuts would be hidden strategies to achieve the endgame sooner, without losing 40 to 60 percent of the financial potential along the way.
The short answer is that there is no magic. But there is consensus from the experts that human dynamics are more the key and the problem, rather than any particular business strategy or tactic. The classic book, The Execution Shortcut, by Jeroen De Flander, a well-respected writer and speaker on business strategy execution, offers some good insights and examples.
If you aspire to get a better return from your strategy, De Flander and I agree that you must learn to position your strategy to capture the head, heart, and hands of your constituents. They need a full sense of awareness of where you are going, to care deeply about it, and to maintain the highest energy to drive it. Here are 10 ways he offers for a professional to enhance his/her strategies:
Facilitate small choices that get you closer to the finish line. Provide prioritization guidelines to align day-to-day choices with the big choices. To make the right big choice, everyone needs to know whom to focus on, and how to offer unique value to constituents in the chosen segment. When to say no is also a critical part of any strategy.
Keep the big choice clearly visible in all your actions and communications. People shorten and package messages all the time, causing message distortion that can hide the core of your big idea. So don’t pass messages down the line. Talk directly to every key constituency often, and make your messages as sticky as possible.
Draw a finish line so key people know the real objective. Capture the core of your strategy and show everyone in an inspiring way what strategy success looks like. Everyone works harder when they know who’s winning and the distance to the end. The right finish line also motivates and gives purpose to those traveling the execution road.
Define lead indicators, and regularly re-measure distance to the finish line. Everyone needs a limited set of lead indicators to provide feedback and allow recalibration based on things learned along the way. Remove old signposts to prevent confusion, and work to prevent information overload.
Share strategy stories for stickiness and heart connections. Story wrappers add context and emotion to the strategy to make people feel and remember the core message.People want to see what kind of small choices they have to make to contribute to the big choice.
Climb the micro-commitment ladder with full engagement. Don’t settle for small commitments on big things. Go after big commitments on small things. The highest rung on the commitment ladder is “Yes, I will get it done no matter what.” This is the only level that represents full ownership of the task, and execution responsibility has really shifted.
Go beyond self-interest to boost belief in others. The key to success is belief. Celebrating small successes along the road makes people believe they can achieve big success at the finish line. Success is a self-fulfilling prophecy, causing people to dig deeper, recover faster, and keep going longer.
Constantly tackle complexity as your business grows.Complexity is the biggest performance killer in organizations. Embrace simplicity to create the most productive working environment. Be constantly on the lookout for best practices and tools to improve your strategy execution.
Experience the power of habits to automate decisions.Each overt decision we make demands mental strength, and when there are too many decisions to take, our reserves run out. Remember how draining your first day on a new job was. Quickly the small decisions become habits. Group habits become your company culture.
Find your seven-day rhythm. A daily rhythm or schedule creates habits faster but is unrealistic in most business environments. A seven-day rhythm provides regular repetitions and follows a more normal business flow. Be sure to connect decision horizons and find a spot for strategy in everyone’s weekly agenda.
We have all seen businesses and new ventures with great ideas that never seem to reach the finish line, while others with more mundane solutions seem to take some hidden path to success. In my experience, like that of De Flander, the difference is almost always related to the leader and their execution strategy, more so than to the solution provided.
The next time you talk to a potential client or investor, spend more time on your execution dynamics and less time on the product pitch. I suspect it will be a shortcut to at least the initial phase of your new venture, and probably long-term business success as well.
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Bespoke Investment Group Here in the US, it was a broad rally last week as Real Estate was the only sector ETF to finish in the red, and seven of eleven sectors rallied over 1%, including three that were up over 2.5%. Normally, when you have a big gain in the market like last week, you can expect to see Technology at the top of the performance list, and while the 2.25% gain for the sector was pretty much right in line with the S&P 500, it was ‘only’ the fourth best-performing sector on the week. On a YTD basis, Technology ranks as just the fifth best-performing sector, and six other sectors are more extended relative to their 50-day moving average. Technology has been far from a dog lately, but it’s certainly given up some of its leadership position, and it’s understandable with several of the mega-caps now in the crosshairs of US and EU regulators.
4. This May Be Why Fed is Lowering Rates….Housing and Commercial Real Estate
5. MSTR +675% One-Year
WSJ Jason Zweig The company said this week that, as of March 18, it held 214,246 bitcoin. At the digital currency’s average price this week of roughly $65,000, MicroStrategy’s trove is worth something close to $14 billion. Adjusting for debt and options that can be converted to shares, the stock has a total market value of about $33 billion. That’s about twice the value of MicroStrategy’s remaining software business and all its bitcoin holdings combined. MicroStrategy has funded its bitcoin buying by issuing more than $5 billion in stock and debt. Normally, companies dilute their earnings per share when they issue extra stock. MicroStrategy’s stock offerings, however, have been anti-dilutive. By issuing shares at such a high premium to the value of its bitcoin, and then pouring the proceeds into more bitcoin, which in turn has risen even higher, MicroStrategy has driven up its stock price.
1. Not asking, “and then what?” 2. Blindness to large trends (blind spots) 3. Assumptions based on small sample sizes 4. Conforming to expectations/authority/group 5. Wanting the world to work the way we want rather than the way it does.”
4. Insider Selling in Technology Stocks Highest in 3 Years
Dave Lutz Jones Trading The FT reports Peter Thiel, Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg are leading a parade of corporate insiders who have sold hundreds of millions of dollars of their companies’ shares this quarter, in a signal that recent stock market exuberance could be peaking. As markets hit record highs, the ratio of corporate insider selling to insider buying is at the highest level since the first quarter of 2021, according to Verity LLC, which tracks insider trading disclosures. Stock sales at the beginning of a calendar year are normal, with pent up demand in early 2024 being exacerbated by shareholders avoiding sales last year because of depressed company valuations.
5. China Takeover Hanging Over Taiwan Markets But Rallying Toward Previous Highs
8. Bonds Helping Pensions Funds Get Back to Fully Funded
Barrons By Allan Sloan Ten years ago, in 2014, JPMorgan Chase, which gathers statistics filed by the country’s 100 biggest corporate pension funds, showed them to be 82% funded. As of the end of last year, they were up to 99.5%—essentially fully funded. (We’ll discuss the drop from 2022 to 2023 in a bit.)
10. Oakland Coach Greg Kampe Makes Less Than Players and Assistants in Today’s Division I Basketball.
Greg Kampe salary
Per information obtained by USA TODAY Sports’ Steve Berkowitz, Kampe had a base salary of $329,609 this season. Per Berkowitz, there are also bonuses of up to 19.9% of his salary built in, but the specifics of those escalators are unknown. That is seemingly by design.
By comparison, Kentucky assistant Orlando Antigua had a base salary of $900,000 this season. Calipari, for his part, has a $34.97 million buyout as of April 1 for the Wildcats. His base salary was $8.54 million, second-highest in college basketball. Izzo is third at $6.2 million, while Bill Self at Kansas leads the way at $9.63 million.
A tidal wave of money is pouring into the market with every paycheck millions of Americans receive. At the end of the 4th quarter, there was $10.56 trillion in Defined Contribution Plans. I don’t think it matters much* whether this money goes into actively managed mutual funds or index funds. The fact that it’s coming in, in this size, every two weeks come hell or high water, is absolutely having an impact on the price of stocks. Specifically, the price relative to whichever underlying fundamental metric you prefer to measure.
Today’s the day you can finally own stock in Reddit, the only social media platform where you can both stage a Wall Street coup and join a community for people who love stapling bread to trees. The 19-year-old company, listed on the New York Stock Exchange as RDDT as of today, is selling 22 million shares priced at $34 each, valuing Reddit at $6.4 billion. But that’s pretty much the only conventional thing about this IPO, which is being bet against by some of the very people who make the site what it is, prompting Reddit to warn of potential volatility. Here’s what’s going on:
In a nod to the platform’s reliance on user-generated content, Reddit set aside 1.76 million shares for certain US-based highly active users and volunteer community moderators.
Many Redditors have not only passed on the IPO—they’re getting ready to dance on its grave. The 15-million-member r/wallstreetbets subreddit, which briefly turned GameStop to gold in 2021, is filled with talk of shorting RDDT and watching it “absolutely plummet.”
Any Redditors who did buy before the bell won’t have to wait the typically mandatory six months before selling, so they could cash in on initial surges.
Growing pains Last year Reddit CEO Steve Huffman said it was time to “behave like an adult company.” But the untameable beast that is the Reddit community hasn’t always been on board with Huffman’s efforts to make the site profitable…like when thousands of moderators protest-shuttered their communities after Huffman announced that third-party developers would have to pay for site access. Now that it has a fiduciary duty to make its shareholders richer…Reddit has to figure out how to turn a profit without enraging users. But in a move that will probably anger many of them anyway, Reddit is looking to diversify its main revenue stream (ads) by letting companies train their AI models on user-generated content. It just signed a $60 million/year data licensing contract with Google, but the FTC is probing the deal.—ML
Preparation is important. Planning is important. Reflection is important. I mean, I wrote a whole book called, Stillness is the Key, because it’s true. And I was just saying earlier this month that I needed to slow down and take better care of myself because I was pushing too hard. And I just read and loved Cal Newport’s new book Slow Productivity (we had a great conversation on The Daily Stoic podcast, listen here). At the same time, I also just hung up two signs at The Daily Stoic offices and in the backstock of The Painted Porch that say “A Sense of Urgency.” It’s something I cribbed from the kitchens of Thomas Keller, the creator of Per Se. He wanted his staff to understand that they weren’t waiting on customers…the customers were quite literally waiting for them. Sure, making great food takes time and it can’t be rushed…but it also can’t be slow-walked. I’m a ‘sense of urgency’ guy. I always have been. As I was working on a draft of this article, one of my former employees sent me a short piece about the concept of “clock speed,” which in the world of computing refers to how quickly something can execute instructions. “Something you are very good at,” this former employee (and now friend) wrote. “You keep the tempo/momentum very high and if there is ever a bottleneck somewhere (decision or input), you process that as soon as physically possible. You return the ball very quickly.” It’s funny that he said “return the ball” because that’s something I used to say a lot. I’d say look, we don’t control how long other people take to do things, but we do control how long we take. We want to hit the ball back into their court—I’d rather be waiting for them than them be waiting for us. I started using a different metaphor more recently. When someone tells me that it’s going to take six weeks for our bindery to make another run of the leatherbound Daily Stoic, I want to “start the clock” as soon as possible. Meaning, I’m not pleased if I hear it took 2 weeks to make the decision about how many to order, or that somebody was slow in processing an invoice. I don’t control how long it takes to make stuff, but I do control when the clock starts on it. The project is going to take six months? Start the clock. You’re going to need a reply from someone else? Start the clock (by sending the email). It will likely take a while for the bid to come back? Start the clock (by requesting it). It’s going to take 40 years for your retirement accounts to compound with enough interest to retire? Start the clock (by making the deposits). It’s going to take 10,000 hours to master something? Start the clock (by doing the work and the study). It struck me that this has become a kind of dividing line between success and failure within my team. Those who haven’t worked out haven’t been able to start the clock or return the ball very quickly. It’s not just my team—it’s a source of frustration that fills the letters and dispatches of just about every great general, admiral, and leader throughout history. In the American Civil War, General George McClellan, for instance, seemed utterly incapable of getting to the fight quickly, to the complete exasperation of everyone who worked with him. There’s even a story about Lincoln coming to meet with McClellan for a meeting but McClellan blew him off because he wanted to go to bed (he thought it could wait until the next day). Only after repeated prods from Lincoln—by “sharp sticks,” one of his secretaries said—did McClellan finally begin to move against Lee in 1862, taking nine days to cross the Potomac. “He’s got the slows,” Lincoln said in frustration. Joking to his wife after visiting the general in the field, Lincoln poked fun at his parked commander. “We are about to be photographed [if] we can sit still long enough,” he said. “I feel General M. should have no problem.” McClellan was a brilliant soldier. But groaning under the weight of his baggage train, his conservatism, his entitlements, his paranoia, and his precaution, he was constitutionally unable to do things quickly, to act urgently, to care about the people waiting on him. He seemed to not understand how much the country was waiting on him, how much it was depending on him sending the message that the North was in the war to win it. Deep down, maybe he didn’t actually want to win the war–at least not early–hoping that a negotiated end might preserve slavery. Lincoln’s big mistake, honestly, was not firing him sooner. You could say Lincoln had the slows himself there–or was in denial–about what needed to be done. Replacing McClellan was not easy and he had to cycle through a number of replacements, but if Lincoln had started the clock sooner, who knows how much sooner the war would have ended. Not that I’m not saying you need to rush everything, I’m really not. There’s another Civil War general I like, General George Thomas. Thomas was hardly known for his speed. His nickname, in fact, was “Old Slow Trot,” which he had earned for the discipline he enforced as a cavalry commander. But it really wasn’t that he was slow; he was deliberate. After all, a trot is not a walk. Some people thought he was too slow and maybe sometimes he was. Thomas found himself at odds with Grant for not moving fast enough against General Hood’s army at Nashville, taking such an exasperatingly long time to get moving on Grant’s order to “attack at once” that Grant moved to personally relieve him. Grant thought that Thomas wasn’t hurrying, that he was dragging his feet. In fact, he was fully committed–unlike McClellan–to attacking, he just wanted to ensure he succeeded when he did so. Having prepared properly, supplied adequately, and trained effectively, he waited for the right moment and then attacked with all deliberate speed. Thomas annihilated his enemy in the Battle of Nashville in December 1864, one of the great victories of the war. (His other nickname was the “Rock of Chickamauga,” for standing fast against a massive enemy attack that would have easily broken a fair-weather general like George McClellan.) There is an old Latin expression that I think captures the balance here nicely: Festina lente. Make haste slowly. A sense of urgency…with a purpose. Energy plus moderation. Measured exertion. Eagerness, with control. It is about getting things done, properly and consistently. Seneca once said that the thing all fools have in common is that they’re always getting ready to start. But the thing about clocks is that they are running even when we aren’t. If someone says it’s going to take six weeks to manufacture something, that’s the minimum. It will take longer if you delay getting started, also if you’re slow to respond to emails, or if you don’t start working on your plans to receive that shipment when it’s done. If you don’t have a sense of urgency about what you do, you’ll miss opportunities for efficiency and for effectiveness. You aren’t someone who will work well on my team, or really, any great team. So it’s worth asking: Are you someone who reliably returns the ball? Are you someone whom colleagues and clients can count on to be there when they need you? Or will they have to prod? Will they have to beg? Will they have to repeat, again and again, the urgency of the situation? Are you always getting ready to start or are you in the habit of starting the clock? Do you have “the slows” or do you have a sense of urgency? Where are you slowing things down, where could your clock speed be better? Your success hinges on your answer. On your ability to effectively manage time. On your capacity to initiate projects, address tasks, expedite processes. We don’t control the clock, but we control when it begins ticking on our projects and pursuits. Every moment of hesitation delays the outcome and diminishes the potential for success. Don’t be a fool. Don’t be the person always getting ready to start. Instead, always be starting the clock.
5. 20 Year Treasury ETF-Longest Losing Streak Since 2002..Investors Betting Higher for Longer
Dave Lutz Jones Trading STREAKING– Treasury ETF Hit by Record Losing Streak, $2 Billion of Outflows – With solid economic growth pressuring bond yields and sapping demand for safe assets, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (ticker TLT) fell again on Monday for eight straight declines. That’s the longest losing streak since its 2002 inception. For five weeks in a row, the fund has seen outflows, with withdrawals totaling $2 billion over the stretch.
If home prices increased at the same rate as inflation since 1963, the median price of a typical house in the U.S. would be $177,511, according to a new research by Clever, a real estate data company.
In reality, the cost of a typical house in the U.S. is nearly half a million dollars: the median price for a home in the U.S. $412,778, according to Redfin data.
While inflation is 10 times higher now than 60 years ago, home prices are 24 times more expensive, a new study found.
If home prices increased at the same rate as inflation since 1963, the median price of a typical house in the U.S. would be $177,511, according to a new research by Clever, a real estate data company.
In reality, the cost of a typical house in the U.S. is closer to half a million dollars: the median price for a home in the U.S. $412,778, according to new Redfin data.
“Today, it’s harder for adults to buy homes than it was for their parents’ generation,” said Matt Brannon, a data writer at Clever and the author of the report.
Why home price growth has outpaced inflation
While mortgage rates have contributed to high costs, supply and demand have also affected the price growth of homes in the U.S., Brannon said.
“When demand for other consumer products comes up, or when it increases, it’s usually not too hard for people to scale up supply,” Brannon said. “Whereas houses take months to build at a time.”
The average time to complete a newly built single-family home is about 9.6 months, according to the 2022 Survey of Construction conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Zoning restrictions, along with prohibitive land costs, can also make it hard to even secure the opportunity to build a new home, Brannon said.
To increase housing supply, local policymakers would need to lower the barriers for builders by easing land-use and zoning regulations, which determine factors like the maximum height of a building or the minimum size of a lot, C. Kirabo Jackson, an economist and member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, previously told CNBC.
“Production can’t move as quickly in housing as it does in other industries,” Brannon said. “That often means the price goes up when there isn’t enough supply to meet demand.”
It doesn’t seem like much of a stretch to say that the single most important thing you can do to be more focused during the day is to get more rest at night. No one is at their best if they’re tired. Sleep is maybe your single most powerful productivity tool, so if there are things you can do to help yourself get more, that seems worthwhile.
Of course, getting more sleep isn’t always that easy. In fact, many people don’t get enough sleep, according to research. There are a number of reasons this is the case, but one of the biggest barriers to getting enough sleep is falling asleep in the first place.
There’s nothing magical about the type of paper you use, though I recommend using a small notepad or a notecard that you can keep next to your bed. That way, if you are lying in bed and can’t stop thinking about something, you can quickly reach over and write it down.
By the way, I strongly recommend you not try to do this on your iPhone, even if that’s where you keep your to-do lists. The reason, which should be obvious, is that once you pick up your phone, even if it’s to dump your brain, you’ll inevitably find a few dozen other distractions that steal away your focus and add to the list of things you’re thinking about.
This is usually some combination of tasks you need to complete, as well as other things that you’re stressed about. Maybe you have an important meeting that is causing you anxiety. Take those thoughts captive by writing down a simple word or phrase that captures your feelings. In the case of the meeting, you might just write a reminder that “Everything is set for the meeting.”
If there’s still something you need to do for the meeting, just write it down so your brain can stop worrying about whether you’ll remember. You’ll be surprised how much you can free up brain bandwidth just by writing down a simple list before you try to go to sleep.
By far, the greatest amount of worry is caused by loose thoughts and things your brain is trying to hold on to so you don’t forget. The beauty of taking a few minutes to write them down is that you give your brain permission to let go. Knowing they’re written down and waiting for you in the morning is usually enough to shut off the noise and let your brain turn off.
That’s why I call it a brain hack. It’s a way to dump all of the thoughts and information that race through your brain and get them down on paper, where you can organize or act on them later–you know, when you aren’t trying to go to sleep. It’s a way of hacking the way your brain works so that you can get to sleep and be more rested.
By the way, that list you just made is useful beyond your brain letting them go. You just made yourself a to-do list so that you can get started in the morning on the things that matter most. That list is the stuff your brain was holding on to, and it’s the perfect place to start when you think through what you need to accomplish the next morning. And, it only takes you five minutes.
3. 2023 The U.S. Added Record Solar Energy Capacity
It’s Official: America Is Experiencing a Solar Power Explosion Unmatched in History
For the first time since WWII, a renewable energy source has outpaced fossil fuels. BY DARREN ORF-Popular Mechanics.
In 2023, the U.S. added more solar capacity that ever before, at 32.4 gigawatts.
This added capacity surpassed any other energy source in 2023, marking the first time a renewable energy source outpaced fossil fuels since World War II.
The Inflation Reduction Act, along with the Biden Administration’s push for U.S. solar manufacturing, means these record-breaking years will hopefully be the year-after-year norm.
6. The Bitcoin Halving …We are at 19.6 million tokens with stop at 21 million tokens
Barrons Halvings happen roughly every four years and will continue until Bitcoins in circulation hit 21 million tokens. So far, more than 19.6 million Bitcoins have been mined, leaving 1.4 million to be issued. Since Bitcoin has no underlying value—only a cost to produce—its price is subject to supply and demand. Halving tends to restrict supply.
A majority of people, 95%, intend to look for a new job this year, according to a January 2024 survey by jobsite Monster. And many anticipate it will be challenging. More than half, 68% say they think it will be difficult to find one given the state of the economy.
While finding work opportunities can be challenging, there are ways to conduct yourself that could make doing so even harder.
“There’s something called validation seeking behavior, aka desperation,” says Lindsay Mustain, a former Amazon recruiter and current CEO of career coaching company Talent Paradigm. She adds that “it’s that ‘pick me’ energy that actually repels the opportunity.”
Here’s how to avoid giving it off.
Don’t apply to a company over and over
First, avoid applying to jobs in the company over and over again, especially in a short period of time.
If Mustain sees that “you’ve applied 20 times in the last two years and we’ve never hired you once,” she says, that’s a red flag. She immediately thinks, “something’s wrong with that candidate for them to have not been hired by this point.”
Regardless of how much of a fit you might be for the job, a recruiter’s likely not going to take the time to investigate your candidacy further.
“This is how you can kind of get blacklisted,” she says. Try to limit your internal applications to a maximum of five roles that you closely align with in the company.
Don’t use LinkedIn’s ‘open to work’ banner
Another red flag for a recruiter: the “open to work” banner on LinkedIn.
Just by putting up that one signal on the site, “we already know that you need something,” says Mustain. It means that you might not be as picky when it comes to your job opportunities, that you might not be moving your career forward in a measured way that helps you build skills and get better.
“It reduces the appearance of being a high caliber candidate,” she says. Plus, it changes the dynamic in a conversation with a hiring manager. Now, they’re not trying to convince you of a great job opportunity because they want you at the company. Instead, you’re trying to convince them to consider you.
Nolan Church, CEO of talent marketplace Continuum and ex-Google recruiter, agrees. Using the banner “actually feels to a hiring manager like desperation,” he previously told CNBC Make It.
“It’s kind of like asking for a handout on the corner,” says Mustain.
Don’t show up ‘very wounded and hurt’ on social media
Finally, if you’re unemployed, don’t post your unemployment status on social media, especially if you’re inclined to do so from a place of hurt. Mustain gives the example of a post like the following:
“I just got laid off and I have two kids at home and I really need another job, like, as soon as possible. So if you could please introduce me to every person that you know that has a possible opening, I would be so grateful.”
Though sad and a cause for sympathy, people who post like statuses are “showing up very wounded and hurt,” she says. They’re “bleeding out on social media.” Ultimately, they’re showing a weakness in a similar way to people who include the “open to work” banner on their LinkedIn profiles. It’s clear they need something.
A post like that “repels people because they’re not coming from a place of strength,” says Mustain.
Instead, if you’ve been laid off and want to signal to the world that you’re looking for new opportunities, try framing the situation as a new beginning or a chance for growth and sharing concrete examples of your past contributions and successes. You can also share what you’ve learned and how your experiences have equipped you for future challenges. All of this “demonstrates adaptability and a forward-looking mindset to potential employers,” she says.
Remember, “you don’t need any job,” says Mustain. “You want a good job.”
2.The Price Between Puts and Calls has Narrowed to Historic Low.
From Dave Lutz Jones Trading A closely-watched gauge of stock market sentiment has hit its most extreme level since 2008, as options traders increasingly focus on capturing further gains in soaring indices rather than worrying about a potential sell-off – Investors are so bullish that “fear of a crash-up” now trumps “any meaningful concern of a correction lower,” said Charlie McElligott, managing director of cross-asset strategy at Nomura, who wrote in a note to clients this week that markets “are foaming at the mouth, FT reports.
5.Copper Rally-Analysts Pointing Out Copper Rally as Positive Tell for China/International?
Copper Contract Rallying to 2023 Levels.
Copper Miners are Making Run at All-Time Highs.
6.Meanwhile Chinese Young People are Loading Up on Gold.
Gold Beans All the Rage With China’s Gen Z as Deflation Bites
Bloomberg News
(Bloomberg) — With China’s deflation at its worst in 15 years, a volatile stock market and bank interest rates too low for her liking, 18-year-old Tina Hong is placing her financial security in gold beans.
Weighing as little as one gram, the beans — and other forms of gold jewelry — are increasingly viewed as the safest investment bet for young Chinese in an era of economic uncertainty. It’s part of a larger consumer trend for all things gold — from bullion to beans and bracelets — that has gripped the mainland.
“It’s basically impossible to lose money from buying gold,” reasoned Hong, a college freshman studying computer science in Fujian province who in January began buying gold beans because of their relatively low cost of about 600 yuan ($83) per gram. She has more than two grams of the beans and will continue buying them as long as costs are lower than international gold prices, she said.
Branded as an investment entry point for young consumers, the beans, which come in glass jars, are the latest hot-selling items in Chinese jewelry stores. Generation Z consumers — buffeted by high youth unemployment and the nation’s slide into deflation — are now among the top consumers of gold accessories in the world’s second-largest economy, according to the 2023 China Jewelry Consumer Trends Report by Chow Tai Fook Jewelery Group Ltd. The attraction of gold comes as people pull back on shopping amid months of disappointing growth.
China Gold Rush
A lack of faith in traditional investments has fueled this new China gold rush.
“Starlink Mission” (CC BY-NC 2.0) by Official SpaceX Photos
SpaceX CEO and terminally online memelord Elon Musk is becoming an increasingly vital figure in the US defense system.
The company that’s been in the news lately for its moonbound megarocket was awarded a $1.8 billion contract in 2021 to build a spy network of hundreds of Starshield satellites for the National Reconnaissance Office, Reuters reported over the weekend. The low-Earth orbit satellites would support ground forces and enhance the ability of the US to locate targets globally.
The SpaceX partnership reflects the US’ urgent efforts to win the latest iteration of the space race.
China announced plans earlier this month to create its own constellation of low-orbit satellites to compete with Starlink.
US intelligence officials warned in February that Russia is developing a nuclear space weapon capable of destroying satellites.
Musk’s satellites have been a geopolitical football: Ukraine has claimed that Russia is using thousands of Musk’s Starlink satellite terminals to gain a tactical advantage during its invasion, starting a squabble with the Biden administration. Starlink, however, is a separate entity from Starshield, which is designed for military or government uses.
Go down the rabbit hole: The New Yorker dug into the US government’s reliance on Musk for national security.—DL
“It’s easier to get a smart person to do something hard than to get them to do something easy that doesn’t matter.”
**
“When you know what needs to be done, inaction increases stress. You feel a lot less stress when you do the things within your control that move you closer to your objective. Action reduces stress.”
***
“A lack of routine causes more problems than poor choices. Routines turn desired behavior into default behavior.”
The Berachain blockchain platform is becoming a unicorn in a more than $69 million funding round co-led by Brevan Howard Digital and Framework Ventures, according to people familiar with the matter.
The project, which is raising the money by selling digital tokens, will be valued at $1.5 billion, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing private information. Berachain focuses on decentralized finance, or DeFi, which enables trading, lending and borrowing without the use of traditional intermediaries like banks.
Berachain is one of the first crypto projects to achieve unicorn status — a valuation of at least $1 billion — in the current digital-asset bull run marked by record highs for Bitcoin. The fundraising signals venture capital investors are becoming more interested in crypto companies after deals collapsed last year.
Both Brevan Howard Digital and Framework Ventures declined to comment. Berachain didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
ARE YOU READY TO swap your office chair for a rocking chair? Hold that thought.
Before you dive into the world of endless vacations and gardening, consider that keeping a toe—and perhaps your whole foot—in the workforce might be the secret ingredient to a fulfilling retirement. Don’t believe me? Here are seven compelling reasons to keep working at least part-time.
1. Stay young at heart. Remember the excitement of landing your first job? That thrill doesn’t have to end. Continuing to work, even part-time, keeps your brain active and challenged. It’s like a gym membership for your mind, warding off the cobwebs and keeping you mentally sharp. Learning new skills and adapting to new environments can be the fountain of youth for your brain.
2. Social butterflies keep fluttering. One often-forgotten benefit of work is the social connections. Picture this: engaging conversations by the water cooler, team lunches, and the camaraderie of working toward a common goal. These interactions are invaluable and keep you connected to diverse groups of people, ensuring that your social life remains vibrant and dynamic.
3. Even more financial freedom. Who doesn’t love an extra bit of cash? Continuing to work means more financial breathing room. You can fund those dream vacations, spoil the grandkids or simply enjoy the peace of mind that comes with a steady income. It’s not just about the money. It’s about the freedom and choices that money can provide.
4. Purpose, passion and pride. Work can be a significant source of all three. Whether you’re mentoring younger colleagues, contributing to meaningful projects or just being part of a team, these experiences validate your skills and experience. It’s about feeling valued and knowing you’re making a difference.
5. Keep the doctors at bay. Believe it or not, working can be good for your health. Studies suggest that those who continue working tend to enjoy better mental and physical health. The combination of mental stimulation, social interaction and a sense of purpose creates a powerful health cocktail.
6. Flexibility is the new black. Retirement doesn’t have to be all or nothing. Many retirees find joy in flexible work arrangements like part-time jobs, consulting or freelance gigs. This flexibility allows you to balance work with leisure, family time and hobbies. With the right job, you get to design your golden years exactly how you want them.
7. The joy of lifelong learning. Ever wanted to try a completely different career or learn a new skill? Now’s your chance. Retirement can be the perfect time to explore new interests or passions in a low-pressure environment. Who says you can’t be an intern at age 60 or start a new venture at 70?
Bottom line: It’s your adventure. Retirement is a journey, not a destination. By incorporating work into your retirement plan, you’re not just adding years to your life—you’re adding life to your years. It’s about finding the right balance that makes you jump out of bed each morning, excited for the day ahead. So, what will your retirement adventure look like?
Dan Haylett is a financial planner and head of growth at TFP Financial Planning, a U.K. firm that specializes in modern-day retirement planning. Dan’s “pull back the duvet every morning” purpose is helping clients spend their time and money on what’s truly important to them.A version of the above article first appeared on Dan’s website, where you can also learn about his Humans vs. Retirement podcast. Follow him on X (Twitter) @DanHaylett. Dan’s previous article was The Changes Ahead.
5. Grayscale files plans for ‘mini’ bitcoin fund, two months after GBTC’s conversion to ETF
Marketwatch Christine Idzelis Grayscale Bitcoin Trust is the largest spot bitcoin ETF, but it’s been losing assets amid competition from cheaper rival funds
Grayscale Investments is planning a second exchange-traded fund tracking spot bitcoin prices, just two months after the firm’s flagship Grayscale Bitcoin Trust converted to an ETF, according to a regulatory filing. The Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust will trade under the ticker “BTC,” according to a filing Tuesday with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The firm has proposed spinning off part of its large Grayscale Bitcoin Trust GBTC, which trades under the symbol “GBTC,” to seed the new ETF, the filing shows. The “mini” bitcoin ETF’s fees were not disclosed in the SEC document. Mini versions of large funds elsewhere in the ETF industry charge lower fees than their flagship versions, as they aim to appeal to buy-and-hold investors rather than big institutions. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust has seen billions of dollars in outflows since its conversion to an ETF on Jan. 11, the same day that less expensive spot bitcoin ETFs also began trading. Rival funds with lower costs than the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust’s 1.5% expense ratio have been attracting assets, including ETFs managed by BlackRock and Fidelity.
Dave Lutz Jones Trading For the world, it’ll represent closure to the era of negative rates, a radical policymaking approach that was also adopted by the European Central Bank and some continental peers in their battles against falling prices in the 2010s.
8. Will We See Rotation to More Value/Defensive Groups?
Low Volatility ETF still has not made new highs.
9. Commercial Real Estate Prices Starting to Recover
Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, Partner With no signs of a recession, commercial real estate prices are starting to recover, see chart below. This is helpful for the regional banks and for the broader economic recovery.
10. 6 Signs That You’re Stuck in a Negative Narrative
Psychology Today Steven C. Hayes, Ph.D. How to overcome the story of “not good enough.” KEY POINTS
The stories you tell yourself about yourself shape how you think, feel, and act.
However, more than what you think, it matters how you react to your own thinking.
By holding your thoughts lightly, you can notice that these are just stories.
Pay attention to these six signs, and practice holding your beliefs with more lightness and flexibility.
What you think about yourself and the world around you tremendously affects your life and overall well-being. For instance, if you think you are worthy of love and capable of confronting and overcoming life’s challenges, you are more likely to act in ways that confirm these thoughts. On the other hand, if you think the opposite is true—that you’re unworthy and incompetent—odds are you will act in alignment with those as well. The stories you tell yourself about yourself (that is, what you believe about yourself), shape how you think, feel, and act.
However, this is only part of the truth and maybe not even the biggest part. Because more than what you think, it matters how you react to your own thinking. For instance, you might think, “I will never be good enough.” But you are kind, caring, and compassionate towards yourself. It’s possible! And you know that because if you look more closely at your experience, negative thoughts don’t always land in the same way. Sometimes therapists use the term belief to talk about thoughts that are implicitly adopted and are then complied with, or fought with—and from that point of view, the real action is not what you think so much as what you believe. In my own work, we usually say people are fused with these thoughts, or that they become entangled with these thoughts, but I’ll practice what I’m preaching here and in this post, I’ll use the term belief to refer to thoughts that are adopted as a basis of action. (Settle down Steve, this ain’t gonna kill you!)
By holding your thoughts lightly, you can notice that these are just stories your mind tells you about yourself. And even though they feel true (or sometimes even are objectively true), they don’t have to dominate your life. Thoughts are just thoughts, they don’t hold power over you unless you get caught up in them.
This is often easier said than done, because we all hold onto beliefs about ourselves that seem as self-evident as the fact that fire is hot, or that water makes things wet. And much too often, we don’t even realize when we’re in the grip of our own beliefs, unable to distinguish them from what is while letting ourselves be guided by them in unhelpful or self-destructive ways. For this reason, it’s important to learn how to notice when we’re stuck in a narrative that negatively affects our lives. Looking out for the following six signs may help.
Sign #1 Overidentification With Labels
The human mind is a master at categorizing. We give names to all the birds in the sky, all the fish in the sea, and literally everything else, because it helps us make sense of the world and allows us to make better decisions that ensure our survival. Scriptural stories note how powerful this is (for example, Genesis 2: 18-20) but so do science and practical experience. For instance, if someone shouts “tiger,” we don’t need to see the animal ourselves to know that we better start running. But as useful as this ability can be, it can also turn on us, especially when we apply it to ourselves. Words can never capture the true complexity of life, and instead reduce everything to a mere label. And when we forget this fact, which we quite often do, we mistake the label for the real thing. We then reduce ourselves to being our job, to our role within our family, to a slur somebody once called us, to a mental health diagnosis we once received, and so on. We are then no longer a living being of unfathomable complexity, but we are “a janitor,” “a mom,” “a loser,” or just “depressed.” The first sign that we’re stuck in a narrative is that we overly identify with such labels.
Sign #2 Repetition of Negative Patterns
Few habits always have “good” or “bad” results, their usefulness depends on the circumstances. Take a process such as shutting down your deepest feelings. That process is a lousy basis for a fruitful relationship, but learning how to do that for short periods can be essential if you’re working as a first responder. Similar action, different context. article continues after advertisement That said, if you repeatedly engage in unhelpful habits, see if you aren’t stuck in an unhelpful narrative. Despite what your mind may tell you about how you “have to” do what it says, it may be time to break its grip.
Sign #3 Blaming External Factors
Often, there are real forces holding people back in life; especially in a world that struggles to treat everyone with respect and dignity. But life also asks us to look at our own lives and discern what is within our ability to change. If all you see are external reasons to blame for your misery, see whether you are stuck in a negative narrative. There are always some aspects within our control, even if it’s just our own perspective. By taking responsibility for ourselves, and making active choices in alignment with our goals and values, we are likely to move the needle in a better direction—step by step.
Sign #4 Difficulty Letting Go
Some experiences have such a strong impact, that they continue to haunt you long after they have passed. Maybe someone hurt you in a devastating way, and although you no longer speak to that person, their image and words still echo in your memories. And whenever you remember, and wrestle with that memory, you might feel your heart beating faster and your body tensing up. Again and again, you feel compelled to engage with that memory, imagining things going differently, and hoping to find a solution or even closure, which will never come. Learning to let go can be hard, seemingly impossible even, especially if you can still feel the pain. And if you were to let go, you might have to let the people who have wronged you off the hook. But letting go is not about other people; it’s about being kind and compassionate towards yourself. It’s about noticing the toll this endless fighting has on you, and with patience and kindness reclaiming your focus and pulling it away from the itching wound and instead on the things you care deeply about.
Sign #5 Consistent Negative Self-Talk
Most of us tend to speak to ourselves in a manner we would rarely, if ever, use when talking to our friends and loved ones. We are then harsh in our judgments, and quick to punish ourselves with critical insults: “How could I be so stupid?!” “I’m a disappointment.” “I’ll never get it right.” And so on. This is often an automatic process, and we do it so quickly and naturally that we hardly ever notice it, let alone how it’s affecting our well-being. You might have been led to believe that you need to be strict with yourself so that you stop messing up. But what does your experience tell you about how well that works? If you’re being honest with yourself, you likely agree that this approach didn’t deliver the promised results. You are not a horse to be whipped, you are instead deserving of kindness, patience, and compassion—especially when you make a mistake or when you are vulnerable. Changing your inner monologue requires active practice, but you can develop a more caring tone in time.
Sign #6 Unwillingness to Consider Alternatives
When we’re stuck in a negative narrative, life appears very much one-sided. Our vision gets closed down, and we become convinced that reality is just as our mind tells us it is. This is relatively easy to spot in other people, but it is much harder to notice the impact of beliefs on ourselves. When we wear red-tinted glasses, we don’t see our glasses; instead, we see the world as red. As a result, we feel compelled to act as if the world were red, not realizing that different views and perceptions are available, ones that are just as valid. article continues after advertisement
If we’re overly concerned about our looks, we may perceive a romantic rejection as proof of our physical inadequacies. We do not notice that it may have nothing to do with ourselves. When we become stressed about all the chores we must do on any given day, we may overlook the fact that not doing them is also an option. There are always different points of view available, some of which are more empowering than others. And by noticing the stories our mind tells us about ourselves, we can more consciously choose which we will ascribe to and which we will let go. In effect, we may not be able to choose our thoughts but we can choose our beliefs. ___ The narratives we tell ourselves about ourselves, and the world we live in, have a powerful impact on our mental well-being especially when we believe them. By consciously noticing these narratives – a skill you can practice in your daily life – you can learn to choose how to engage with them: whether you want to let them drive your actions or acknowledge their presence without being dictated by their demands. It’s a matter of continuously training your awareness. And whenever you get sucked back in, you can consciously refocus on what matters to you. Again and again.
Pay attention to these six signs, and practice holding your beliefs with more lightness and flexibility. You soon notice it will help you make new, better choices.
Found at Dollar and Cents Blog Joe Weisenthal summarized the atmosphere of the current crypto environment beautifully in the Bloomberg Markets newsletter last week: All that being said, there is something about this upturn that’s a little bit different than in the past. Typically there’s some sort of story or pretense that rides alongside the price. In 2021 there was a lot of talk about “DeFi” and how the various chains had the opportunity to disintermediate finance in some novel way. Other things in past cycles you heard about where how gaming would all go on chain, with people being able to own their own characters or their character skins or whatnot. Tokens were going to replace frequent flyer miles. Ethereum was going to be the new World Computer. Real-world assets would all be tokenized, creating smoother more liquid markets for various things that are currently hard to trade. None of this has panned out so far. At all. But not only has none of this panned out, there’s not some new “fundamental” story that’s being told about this rally. There’s not some new crypto use case that people are excited about that wasn’t being talked about 3 years ago. The only thing people are talking about really is flows. There’s the new inflows from the ETFs.
10. How to Build a High-Performance Leadership Team
From INC.com
As a leader, you set the tone for your leadership team.
EXPERT OPINION BY DAVID FINKEL, CO-AUTHOR OF ‘SCALE: SEVEN PROVEN PRINCIPLES TO GROW YOUR BUSINESS AND GET YOUR LIFE BACK’ @DAVIDFINKEL In today’s rapidly changing business landscape, the success of an organization depends heavily on the strength of its leadership team. A high-performance leadership team can drive innovation, foster a positive workplace culture, and guide the company toward its strategic goals. However, building such a team is not without its challenges. Here are some essential tips for creating and nurturing a high-performance leadership team. 1. Define Clear Roles and Responsibilities One of the fundamental building blocks of a high-performance leadership team is clarity regarding each member’s roles and responsibilities. Ambiguity and overlapping duties can lead to confusion and inefficiency. Start by defining specific roles and expectations for each team member. Make sure everyone understands their unique contributions and how they fit into the larger team structure. 2. Cultivate Diversity Diversity within your leadership team can be a powerful asset. A group of individuals with different backgrounds, perspectives, and skill sets can bring a broader range of ideas and approaches to problem-solving. Encourage diversity in terms of gender, ethnicity, age, and professional experiences. Embrace the value that diverse viewpoints can bring to your team’s decision-making process. 3. Nurture Effective Communication Open and transparent communication is the lifeblood of any successful leadership team. Foster an environment where team members feel comfortable sharing their thoughts, concerns, and feedback. Encourage active listening and respectful dialogue during meetings. Effective communication enables leaders to align their efforts, make informed decisions, and resolve conflicts constructively. 4. Lead by Example As a leader, you set the tone for your leadership team. Demonstrate the qualities and behaviors you expect from your team members. Lead with integrity, accountability, and a strong work ethic. Your actions will influence the team’s culture and inspire them to strive for excellence. 5. Foster Trust and Collaboration Trust is a cornerstone of high-performance teams. Create an atmosphere of trust by honoring commitments, being consistent in your actions, and valuing each team member’s contributions. Encourage collaboration by facilitating teamwork, joint problem-solving, and cross-functional initiatives. When team members trust one another, they are more likely to collaborate effectively. 6. Invest in Professional Development High-performing leadership teams are committed to continuous growth and learning. Invest in the professional development of your team members by providing access to training, workshops, and leadership programs. Equip them with the skills and knowledge needed to stay ahead in an ever-evolving business landscape. 7. Set Ambitious Goals Challenge your leadership team by setting ambitious yet achievable goals. Well-defined objectives provide a clear sense of purpose and direction. Encourage your team to embrace these goals and work collectively to attain them. Celebrate achievements along the way to maintain motivation and momentum. 8. Emphasize Accountability Accountability is vital for the success of any high-performance team. Ensure that team members take ownership of their responsibilities and deliver results as promised. Establish a system of accountability that holds individuals and the team as a whole responsible for meeting performance expectations. 9. Promote a Growth Mindset Encourage a growth mindset within your leadership team. Emphasize the importance of learning from failures and viewing challenges as opportunities for growth. A growth mindset fosters resilience and innovation, enabling your team to adapt to changing circumstances effectively. 10. Regularly Evaluate and Adjust Building a high-performance leadership team is an ongoing process. Regularly assess the team’s performance, strengths, and areas for improvement. Adjust your strategies and goals as needed to ensure that your team remains adaptable and responsive to the organization’s evolving needs. A high-performance leadership team is the backbone of a successful organization. By following these tips and investing in the development of your team, you can create a cohesive and effective group of leaders. Remember that building and nurturing a high-performance team is a continuous journey that requires dedication, communication, and a commitment to excellence. With the right approach, your leadership team can help your organization thrive in today’s competitive business environment. Now accepting applications for Inc.’s Best Workplace awards. Apply by February 16 for your chance to be featured! The opinions expressed here by Inc.com columnists are their own, not those of Inc.com. How to Build a High-Performance Leadership Team | Inc.com
6. The Best Selling Investment Vehicle of 40 Years is Money Market Fund
7. Venture Funding Down -50-60%
Pitchbook-Debt funding to early-stage startups, referring to companies at the Series A and B stages, plunged almost 57% to about $4 billion in 2023, while funding to seed and pre-seed startups shrank about 59% to just $610,000, according to PitchBook-NVCA.
9. Boomers Are Expected To Pass $90 Trillion In Assets Onto Millennials — Leaving Them To Become The ‘Richest Generation In History’
Jeannine Mancini-Yahoo Finance
In an unprecedented financial shift, millennials are on the cusp of becoming the richest generation in history, with $90 trillion expected to be passed down to them over the next two decades. This transfer of wealth, highlighted in Knight Frank’s 2024 Wealth Report, promises to reshape the economic landscape and alter the current power dynamics heavily influenced by the baby boomer generation. The report, drawing on recent findings, forecasts a seismic change in the distribution of wealth, with millennials positioned to inherit assets that will significantly elevate their financial standing. This generational wealth transfer is not merely a redistribution of existing wealth but signals a broader transformation in the avenues for wealth creation. As highlighted by Mike Pickett, a director at Cazenove Capital, the diversity of opportunities for generating wealth has expanded, encompassing everything from digital platforms to entrepreneurial ventures, marking a shift towards first-generation wealth creation. Don’t Miss:
Investing in real estate just got a whole lot simpler. This Jeff Bezos-backed startup will allow you to become a landlord in just 10 minutes, and you only need $100.
Despite this optimistic outlook, the journey to financial prosperity has been fraught with challenges for millennials. Many have grappled with an increasingly unattainable housing market, a competitive job landscape reshaped by the global pandemic and the burden of student debt. Additionally, the anticipation of inheritance reveals a gap in expectations, with a significant portion of millennials expecting a larger inheritance than their boomer parents plan to leave. The focus on housing remains a critical concern for millennials struggling to secure a foothold in the property market. This challenge extends to ultra-high-net-worth individuals within the generation, underscoring the importance of real estate as a key area of investment. The report indicates a keen interest among affluent millennials, both male and female, in expanding their property portfolios in the coming year, mirroring a similar sentiment among wealthy Gen Zers. The Knight Frank report also sheds light on the increasing number of ultra-high-net-worth individuals globally, projecting a significant rise in their numbers, particularly in India and mainland China. This growth underscores the expanding landscape of wealth and the critical role of the financial sector in catering to the needs of an increasingly affluent millennial cohort. As millennials stand on the brink of a historic wealth influx, the report calls on the financial sector to adapt its services to meet the unique needs and preferences of this generation. This adaptation is crucial for managing the wealth accumulated during the pandemic and for supporting the diverse and innovative paths millennials are taking toward financial independence and wealth creation.
Last November, Michael Morell, a former deputy director of the Central Intelligence Agency, hinted at a big change in how the agency now operates. “The information that is available commercially would kind of knock your socks off,” Morell said in an appearance on the NatSecTech podcast. “If we collected it using traditional intelligence methods, it would be top secret-sensitive. And you wouldn’t put it in a database, you’d keep it in a safe.”
In recent years, U.S. intelligence agencies, the military and even local police departments have gained access to enormous amounts of data through shadowy arrangements with brokers and aggregators. Everything from basic biographical information to consumer preferences to precise hour-by-hour movements can be obtained by government agencies without a warrant.
Most of this data is first collected by commercial entities as part of doing business. Companies acquire consumer names and addresses to ship goods and sell services. They acquire consumer preference data from loyalty programs, purchase history or online search queries. They get geolocation data when they build mobile apps or install roadside safety systems in cars.
But once consumers agree to share information with a corporation, they have no way to monitor what happens to it after it is collected. Many corporations have relationships with data brokers and sell or trade information about their customers. And governments have come to realize that such corporate data not only offers a rich trove of valuable information but is available for sale in bulk.
Barrons Burton G. Malkielis the author ofA Random Walk Down Wall Street, now in its 50th-anniversary edition. Nvidiamakes chips that are in high demand for training AI models. The company’s recent growth has been simply unprecedented. Earnings in 2023 grew by 769%. No large company even came close to that growth during the internet boom (Cisco was growing at 36%), and many stock market favorites such as Amazon had no earnings at all. AI has the promise to make enormous advances in productivity and could be as important as the Industrial Revolution. And if Nvidia grew its earnings at the rate expected by security analysts in 2024, it would be selling at only 33 times forward earnings. No wonder its supporters consider it a cheap stock. Nvidia today doesn’t resemble Cisco in January 2000. https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-bubble-tech-valuations-nvidia-b210713f?mod=past_editions
Bespoke Investment Group The rally in semiconductors is starting to run out of superlatives to describe it. Just when you think it has to take a breather, it turns around and rallies another few percent. Yesterday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) closed more than 17% above its 50-day moving average and 36% above its 200-DMA. Regarding the 50-DMA, it hasn’t even traded down to within 3% of that level in the last 80 trading days. In fact, the only time it has even traded within 4% of its 50-DMA since mid-November was on 12/6 when it closed 3.99% above that level.
Equities: The S&P 500 12-month forward P/E ratio is back above 21x
Source: The Daily Shot
6. Ned Davis Global Stock Optimism Getting Excessive
7. U.S. Dollar Fails Again to Make New Highs
8. Best Performing Sector Last Week was Utilities. +3.5%
XLU Still Below Highs.
9. Median Household Income is 41% Below Income Needed to Buy Home
10. Problems
Farnam Street Blog
Tiny Thought(s)* https://fs.blog/ “We need to redefine “problems” into opportunities. Problems are an opportunity to create value. Problems are an opportunity to strengthen relationships. Problems are an opportunity to differentiate yourself from others. Every problem is an opportunity in disguise.” ** “Talent and potential mean nothing if you can’t consistently do things when you don’t feel like doing them.” *** “If you’re not willing to look like an idiot in the short term, you will never look like a genius in the long term.” — (Share Tiny Thought one, two, or three, on X).
Dave Lutz at Jones Trading Bespoke notes that Mega-cap divergence is real – AAPL is now more than three standard deviations below its 50-DMA. It hasn’t been this oversold since March 16th, 2020, in the throes of the COVID Crash.
3. SMH-Semiconductor ETF
Huge increase in semi stocks….leaves RSI overbought at 83
4. Chart Update…NYCB Bank Did Break Below GFC 2008 Lows
I did not think I would see a bank break below 2008 crisis lows in my lifetime
WSJ By Matt Barnum Public-school teachers like Sumner are still leaving the profession in higher numbers than before the pandemic, a Wall Street Journal analysis of data from 10 states show, though departures have fallen since their peak in 2022. The elevated rate is likely due to a combination of factors and adds one more challenge to schools battling learning loss and frequent student absences.
“This is still a discouraging story,” said Katharine Strunk, dean of the University of Pennsylvania’s Graduate School of Education. ”I don’t think this level of consistent attrition is sustainable for the school system.”
THE SECOND HALF of life isn’t just a continuation of the first. Rather, it’s an opportunity for transformation, new adventures and deepening wisdom. As we navigate these years, understanding the five key stages of this journey can help us live more joyfully and meaningfully. What five stages? Here’s a look at each:
Phase 1: Pre-Rapture. This stage, typically between ages 45 and 60, is marked by a feeling of newfound freedom and independence. With grown-up children flying the nest, you might experience a mix of emotions—pride, nostalgia and perhaps a sense of loss. This is also, however, a time of great opportunity.
It’s a period to rediscover yourself, invest in hobbies or career paths you’ve always wanted to explore, and strengthen your relationships beyond your parental role. This phase sets the foundation for a fulfilling second half of life.
Phase 2: Transition. This is the prelude to retirement, when you start to ease out of full-time work. This could involve shifting to part-time or consulting work, or even beginning a completely new, less demanding career.
It’s a time for preparation—financially, emotionally and socially—for the full retirement that lies ahead. This stage is crucial: It helps you gradually adapt to a new way of living, ensuring the change isn’t abrupt, but instead a smooth segue into the joys of retirement.
Phase 3: Rapture. Welcome to the rapture stage—the golden early years of retirement, when you can live out the dreams you’ve been harboring for years. Whether it’s traveling to exotic places, dedicating more time to hobbies, volunteering, or spending quality time with family and friends, this stage is about fulfillment and enjoyment.
You might still be working in some capacity. But the difference now is that it’s on your terms. It’s a time of exploration, learning and experiencing the beauty of unstructured time.
Phase 4: Post-Rapture. In this stage, things start to slow down. Our late-retirement years are about finding joy in the quieter, more stable aspects of life. Your focus may shift toward creating a comfortable and safe living environment, maintaining good health, and enjoying the simpler pleasures, such as reading, gardening or spending time with grandchildren. It’s a time for reflection, appreciating the small moments, and maintaining a sense of community and connection.
Phase 5: Fragility. This is the twilight of life. It’s a time when health and mobility may decline, and you become more dependent on others for care and support. This stage calls for a dignified approach to aging—acknowledging limitations while cherishing the life you’ve lived. It’s about ensuring comfort, receiving appropriate care and staying connected with loved ones. It’s also a time to pass on wisdom, share stories and leave a legacy that reflects the richness of your life’s journey.
So, what does all this mean for you? Living a rapturous second half of life is about embracing each stage with awareness and grace. By understanding and preparing for these phases, you can ensure that every chapter of your life is lived with purpose, joy and a sense of fulfillment. Remember, every stage has its beauty and its challenges, and it’s up to you to make the most of them.
Dan Haylett is a financial planner and head of growth at TFP Financial Planning, a U.K. firm that specializes in modern-day retirement planning. Dan’s “pull back the duvet every morning” purpose is helping clients spend their time and money on what’s truly important to them.A version of the above article first appeared on Dan’s website, where you can also learn about his Humans vs. Retirement podcast. Follow him on X (Twitter) @DanHaylett.
1. EU Apple Fine Followed by China IPhone Sales -24%
Apple’s iPhone Woes in China Deepen With a 24% Sales Plunge-Bloomberg By Vlad Savov
Apple Inc.’s iPhone sales in China fell by a surprising 24% over the first six weeks of this year, according to independent research that may stoke fears about worsening demand for the marquee but aging device.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq has gone 303 trading days without a major pullback.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 has gone 303 trading sessions without a pullback of 2.5% or more, the third-longest stretch since 1990, according to Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG.
While this doesn’t necessarily mean the artificial-intelligence-driven boom in U.S. stocks is ripe for a selloff, Krinsky thinks the market is overdue for a bout of volatility.
“Some sort of shakeout is likely coming, in our view,” Krinsky said.
The Invesco QQQ Trust Series ETF QQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq-100 and is one of the most popular U.S.-traded ETFs, has marched to 14 straight record highs in 2024. It’s most recent record arrived on Friday, when the ETF rose 1.5% to finish at $445.61.
According to FactSet data, the most recent pullback of 2.5% or more occurred on Dec. 15, 2022, when QQQ fell 3.4%.
Notably, the Nasdaq-100 has been achieving these records without the help of Apple Inc., AAPL, -2.54% once considered an indispensable constituent of the index. While Apple was down 9.1% so far this year, the Nasdaq-100 was up 8.3%, according to FactSet. Divergence in the performance of a popular group of megacap technology stocks has been growing since the beginning of 2024, while all of the so-called Magnificent Seven tech stocks helped drive gains for the S&P 500 in 2023.
Take Monday’s session for example: Nvidia Corp. NVDA, +3.60% is up 3.6% on Monday, while Tesla Inc. TSLA, -7.16% was down 7.2%. Alphabet Inc. GOOGL, -2.76% was down 2.8%. And Apple AAPL, -2.54% was down 2.5%.
“… [T]he dispersion under the surface shouldn’t be ignored. Yes, it’s encouraging to see some broadening beyond the ‘AI’ trade, but the continued one-way move in many momentum names is ultimately going to have some ramifications, even if only short-term in nature,” Krinsky said.
The weakness in several megacap names weighed on the Nasdaq on Monday.
Both the Nasdaq-100 NDX, which includes the 100 largest nonfinancial stocks trading on the Nasdaq, and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, which includes more than 3,000 stocks listed on the exchange, finished 0.4% lower. The S&P 500 SPX also eked out a loss after briefly turning positive. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA finished lower as well.
10. Why You’re Scared of Investing (and how to overcome it)-
My heart is racing. My hands are so wet from my sweat that I can’t even get a good grip on the computer mouse.
After hearing many stories from people who lost money, I feared investing. But I still to get in on the game. I wanted to get rich badly.
But my stomach felt like it was inside out. I collected all the courage inside me. Then, I finally did it. Boom! I bought my first stocks.
This was in 2007, and I STILL remember how I felt. That’s how scary investing is. Over the years, I started to control my emotions to a degree that I don’t even feel the slightest itch when I invest my money.
That’s because I found ways to overcome my fear of investing.
What follows is a list of 5 common reasons most people fear investing and a practical way of overcoming the fear.
1. Fear of losing money
The fear of losing money is a primal instinct, deeply ingrained in our psyche. It’s tied to our survival instincts. After all, for much of human history, losing resources could mean life or death.
This is reflected in the concept of loss aversion:1 The pain of losing is psychologically twice as powerful as the pleasure of gaining.
This means we’re more likely to avoid investing because we fear the potential losses more than we value the potential gains.
Overcoming it: The founder of modern-day investing, Benjamin Graham, famously said:
”The investor’s chief problem—and his worst enemy—is likely to be himself.”
To overcome this fear, we need to change our mindset. First, understand that investing isn’t gambling.
It’s about making calculated decisions based on research and analysis. Second, diversify your portfolio.
As the saying goes, don’t put all your eggs in one basket when you start. While many successful investors got rich by concentrating on their portfolios, I don’t think it’s wise to start picking individual stocks. This is also why many people get scared of investing.
You’re much better off buying a broad index like the S&P 500 when you start. You can concentrate on your individual investments later.
2. Lack of knowledge
Investing can seem intimidating if you don’t understand how it works. This fear stems from the Dunning-Kruger effect, a cognitive bias where people with low ability at a task overestimate their ability.
This leads to a paradox: the less you know about investing, the more confident you might feel, leading to risky decisions.
But as you learn more, you realize how much you don’t know, which can lead to fear and hesitation.
Overcoming it: Knowledge is power. Start by educating yourself about the basics of investing.
Read books, listen to podcasts, take online courses. As legendary investor Warren Buffett said:
”Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.”
The more you understand investing, the more confident you’ll become. Just remember you also don’t need to have a PhD in Finance to be a good investor. Basic knowledge is enough.
Humans seem to be naturally competitive. Social media makes this even more visible, as people feel unsatisfied when they watch other folks live a “better” life. We tend to define our worth based on how we stack up against others.
This behavior sometimes translates to our investing strategy. Which leads to risky behavior, such as jumping on an investment bandwagon without doing your research.
Overcoming it: Remember that investing is a long-term game, not a get-rich-quick scheme.
As Peter Lynch, one of the most successful investors of all time, said:
”The real key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them.”
Focus on your financial goals and stick to your investment plan, regardless of what others are doing.
This reaction is linked to the fight-or-flight response. I experienced that feeling when I lost around 60% of the money I first invested in the stock market.
Overcoming it: It’s crucial to stay calm and stick to your long-term investment plan during market volatility.
The economist Paul Samuelson said it well:
”Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.”
What do you do when you paint your walls? You leave it alone and simply get on with your life. Do the same with your investments.
5. Fear of commitment
Investing often means locking away your money for a significant period, which can feel daunting.
There is always the fear of uncertainty. What if the market suddenly crashes and you need to use that money after all? What if you suddenly need to take a one-month vacation, but don’t have the money for it? These fears keep many people scared of investing.
When you get down to it, there are two main goals that every investor aims for: Liquidity and growth. Liquidity is about how easily you can turn an investment into cash without losing its value.
It’s important because having liquid assets means you can quickly access funds for emergencies or unexpected expenses. On the flip side, growth is all about increasing value over time. This is crucial for building wealth and reaching financial goals like retirement or buying a house.
But when it comes to investing, you can’t have total liquidity and maximum growth simultaneously; there’s always a trade-off. The key is finding the right balance between the two.
Overcoming it: Maintain an emergency fund that covers 3-6 months of living expenses.
This will give you the peace of mind to invest your other funds without worrying about accessing them in an emergency.
Embrace the future: Conquer your fears today
Always remember this as you’re investing: The regret of not taking action today could be far greater than any fear you’re experiencing now. Think about that whenever you find yourself scared of investing.
Imagine yourself 10, 20, or even 30 years from now. You look back on your life and realize you let fear dictate your financial decisions.
You missed out on opportunities to grow your wealth, to secure your future, to provide for your loved ones. That regret can be a heavy burden to bear.
We’re more likely to regret the things we didn’t do than the things we did. And when it comes to investing, the cost of inaction can be high.
Yes, there will be risks. There is always risk in every part of life. But as long as you invest sustainably and consistently, you will grow your wealth in the long term.
As American entrepreneur and motivational speaker, Jim Rohn, said:
“We must all suffer one of two things: the pain of discipline or the pain of regret.”
3. Tech Sector Price to Sales Ratio Breaks Out to New Highs
4. Some of the Rest Starting to Rally…New Highs in Equal Weight S&P 500
Equal weight lagged big last year due to technology stocks and Super
5. The Rest-New Highs in Gold ETF-GLD
6. The Rest-New Highs in Vanguard Small Cap Value
7. Bloomberg AGG-Bond Index Longest Drawdown in History Continues
While US equity markets have been hitting new highs since January, the US bond market remains in its longest drawdown in history: 43 months and counting.
9. Baby Boomers Retiring in Mass Due to Stock and Real Estate Rising Prices
10. 7 Brain foods experts actually recommend
Longevity Technology Blog Certain foods have gained attention for their potential benefits in the quest for optimal brain health. Let’s look into some of these brain-boosting foods recommended by experts from Brainworks Neurotherapy [1]:
Açaí berries: Famed for their antioxidant properties, açaí berries are believed to offer neuroprotective benefits. While ongoing research explores their cognitive effects, other dark berries like blueberries can provide similar advantages more affordably [2].
Avocados: Rich in Vitamin E, avocados support brain health. However, they’re not the sole source of this nutrient. Incorporating a various nuts, seeds and green vegetables can provide similar benefits.
Fatty fish: Rich in omega-3 fatty acids, fatty fish like salmon and cod are crucial for brain health and may help stave off conditions like Alzheimer’s.
Green, leafy vegetables: Kale, spinach and broccoli are packed with brain-healthy nutrients like Vitamin K and beta carotene, which support cognitive function and may help slow decline.
Greens powders: These powdered blends of vegetables, fruits and nutrients offer a convenient supplement. While they can fill nutritional gaps, they shouldn’t replace whole fruits and veggies [3]. The bioavailability of nutrients in powders may differ from whole foods, so it’s essential to maintain a balanced diet.
Matcha: Known for its high concentration of L-theanine and caffeine, matcha has garnered popularity for its potential cognitive benefits [4]. However, traditional green tea provides similar advantages without the complexity of preparation associated with matcha.
“Entropy applies to every part of our lives. It is inescapable, and even if we try to ignore it, the result is a collapse of some sort. Understanding entropy leads to a radical change in the way we see the world. Ignorance of it is responsible for many of our biggest mistakes and failures. We cannot expect anything to stay the way we leave it. To maintain our health, relationships, careers, skills, knowledge, societies, and possessions requires never-ending effort and vigilance. Disorder is not a mistake; it is our default. Order is always artificial and temporary.”
The Daily Stoic Marcus Aurelius opens Meditations reflecting upon what he has learned from various influential individuals in his life. It’s titled “Debts and Lessons,” and the 17 entries spanning nine pages and more than 2,000 words make up nearly 10% of the entire book! Marcus writes with the humility of someone in the final act of their life taking stock of how lucky they are to be where they are.
It’s beautiful. And it totally dispenses with the notion of the “self-made man,” the idea that someone got somewhere all on their own. Marcus knew he was a product of so many mentors, influencers, advisors and teachers. Debt is the operative word in that title—he owed them so much.
But he didn’t do it on his own, Arnold told us. “I have been a creation of hundreds of people,” he said in our episode. “Thousands of people. I had Kurt Marnul, Mr. Austria, say to me when I was a scrawny 15-year-old kid, ‘You can become Mr Austria in a few years from now. Go to the gym with me, and I will show you how to exercise.’” For the next two minutes, Arnold went on talking about just of the people who helped him throughout his life. “It’s unbelievable the amount of people that helped me and pushed me,” he said.
Ultimately, each of us is the sum of our surroundings. We are products of our influences, our environments, our family and friends. Success is a collaborative effort. The myth of the self-made man is just that, a myth. Embrace the idea that we are all interconnected, and our achievements are a collective effort. We are, in the end, a reflection of the support and guidance we receive from the countless people who shape our lives.
1. A 5% February: What Worked and What Didn’t-Bespoke
The S&P 500 finished February with a gain of more than 5% for just the 11th time in the index’s history since 1928. Below is a look at prior 5%+ gains in February along with the S&P 500’s performance in March and for the remainder of each year. The last time we had a 5% February was 2015. That March, the S&P fell 1.74%, and the index fell 2.88% from the end of February through year-end. Let’s hope we don’t see that type of action for the remainder of 2024, although a repeat of 2015 would be a lot better than what investors experienced in 1931 when the S&P rallied 11.37% in February only to fall 54.96% for the rest of the year!
4. Wall Street Banks Now Lending to Private Equity Lenders
Semafor Blog Wall Street banks have lost out on billions of dollars in fees to private lenders. A few have figured out how to get some of that money back. As private lenders muscle in on banks’ bread-and-butter business of corporate lending, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and others have built sizable businesses lending to these upstart competitors, which are eager to juice their own returns with that favorite of Wall Street tools: leverage. This lending casts these two camps more as frenemies than existential rivals in a game that is “less zero-sum than it seems,” said Dee Dee Sklar, who ran this business at Wells Fargo until retiring in 2019. Liz Hoffman
Psychology Today Andy Lopata Edmondson challenges the perceived wisdom that all failure is, by its very nature, bad for us. She talks about “intelligent failure”, an outcome that results from experimentation. “An intelligent failure is an undesired outcome; it’s not the outcome we had hoped for, maybe even expected, but it takes place in new territory where we lacked available knowledge about how to get that result that we wanted.
“An intelligent failure happens in pursuit of a goal. We’re not just messing around with resources; it’s thoughtful. We’ve done our homework. “These are the kinds of failures that we really must train ourselves to welcome because they are the source of discovery.”
In The Right Kind of Wrong, Edmondson talks about how failures in early attempts at open-heart surgery laid the pathway for the successes we have witnessed in this field ever since. She explains how we take for granted that “surgeons today can crack open the breastbone and operate on the heart of a living person and repair it and give you more years of life.
“And yet there was a point in history where no one had ever done that before. It was initially considered more or less impossible because you couldn’t operate on a beating heart.”
To get from that point to the daily miracles we witness in the current era, doctors had to fail and patients died. But the key, according to Edmondson, is that they never operated on a patient who had a better option. “If the choice was between operating and possibly making them better or not operating and they would still be OK, they wouldn’t operate.”
Intelligent failure is all about the failure being “no bigger than it has to be to get the new knowledge that it brings.” By only operating on patients who had no other alternatives and would have died without an attempt to save them, the risk of failure was mitigated.
Culture Blocks The challenge is that too few modern organisations operate within a culture that encourages intelligent failure. Short-term pressures can often make failure something to hide under a rock rather than shine a spotlight on to learn from and progress.
Edmondson argues that organisations need to think beyond short-term reporting and, if necessary, take a hit. After all, if everyone just focused on quarterly profits, nobody would ever take a risk or try something new at all. “I don’t think you have to be a visionary, but you have to be reasonably thoughtful. And you do need to get people on board with that.
It’s important to recognise longer-term thinking as a cost of being in business five years from now and making that a cost you are willing to pay.”
Perfectionism also, somewhat naturally, creates a barrier to learning from failure. Edmondson argues that “perfection equals disconnection”, explaining that leaders who strive for perfection may impose the same unrealistic standards on their team members, creating a culture of fear. “There’s no such thing as perfect”, Dr. Edmondson explains, “and so they end up blaming and shaming if they make a mistake.”
Rather than striving for perfection and creating a climate of fear, Edmondson wants to see leaders who are focused on developing trusted relationships across their team and encouraging honest and vulnerable conversations that lead to growth and innovation. “High-quality relationships, are ones where we’re willing to tell each other the truth and we can roll up our sleeves and get hard things done because we have that honesty, because we’re not posturing and we’re not putting on a show for each other. We’re authentically digging into the challenges on our mutual plates. “That’s how I think of high-quality relationships, not people who I know really well, but ones where I believe I can be truthful.”
Story by Shannon Osaka Washington Post If you try to imagine a “green” car, an EV is probably the first thing that comes to mind. A silent motor with tons of torque; no fumes, gasoline smells, or air pollution belching from an exhaust pipe. Last year, U.S. consumers had over 50 electric car models to choose from, up from about 30 the year before.
But a new report from the American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy suggests that the “greenest” car in America may not be fully electric. The nonprofit group, which has rated the pollution from vehicles for decades, says the winning car this year is the Toyota Prius Prime, a plug-in hybrid that can go 48 miles on electricity before switching to hybrid.
“It’s the shape of the body, the technology within it, and the overall weight,” said Peter Huether, senior research associate for transportation at ACEEE. “And all different types of Priuses are very efficient.”
It’s not the first time that a plug-in vehicle has topped the GreenerCars list; the Prius Prime also won out in 2020 and 2022. But with more and more electric vehicles on the market, the staying power of the plug-in hybrid is surprising.
Robot people aren’t just for science fiction movies anymore.
XPrize Foundation founder Peter Diamandis predicts that millions or even billions of robots that look and move like people could integrate into consumers’ homes and workplaces, thanks to technological breakthroughs including artificial intelligence and a looming labor shortage. The market for these robots could hit $150 billion by 2035 and as much as $3 trillion by 2050, according to figures cited by Diamandis.
“It’s only now, driven by major advances in sensors and actuators, battery technologies and artificial intelligence, that a new generation of useful and affordable robotic labor is within reach,” Diamandis wrote in a recent blog post.
Recent advancements in generative AI, the technology that enables applications like ChatGPT, have taken the world by storm. Generative AI “magnifies a robot’s adaptability,” Diamandis wrote, by using “reinforcement learning” combined with decision-making algorithms. Plus, robots have the potential to instantaneously share learned skills with others in their network–something humans cannot do.
The market for these robots could be huge. In a 2022 report, Goldman Sachs predicted the market value of humanoid robots in a “blue sky scenario” could hit as much as $154 billion by 2035. Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of investment management firm Ark Invest, sets the bar even higher,at $1 trillion by 2030. Financial services company Macquarie, meanwhile, anticipates a whopping $3 trillion market for humanoid robots by 2050.
Diamandis extolled the utility of a humanoid robot laborer who “operates 24/7, who doesn’t need drug testing, and doesn’t call in sick from a fight with their boyfriend or girlfriend,” in a recent conversation with Inc.
Lidar, or light detection and ranging sensors, is the technology that gives sight to autonomous vehicles–and could do the same for humanoid robots. It works by rapidly firing a laser off of surrounding objects, and then using a sensor to measure the length of time it takes for the light to travel out and bounce back, according to the National Ecological Observatory Network. These measurements, used for mapping out surroundings, help robots navigate, according to San Jose, California-based lidar company Velodyne Lidar. The size and cost of lidar units have shrunk 1,000 times and 100 times, respectively, Diamandis writes, making the technology more accessible.
Driving the demand for humanoid robots is a looming labor shortage as Baby Boomers head into retirement with fewer young workers to replace them, Diamandis notes. This could be an advantage to workers as robots replace less desirable jobs in industries like manufacturing and agriculture. But more than industry is behind Macquarie’s massive market predictions. Wendy Pan, an analyst for Macquarie Research in Japan, sees humanoid robots as the next logical step in a long line of technological advances.
“The car helped shorten people’s commute time. I see the purpose as similar for humanoid robots: to shorten people’s time spent on housework, making people’s lives easier and more convenient,” writes Pan.
Diamandis isn’t alone in his sentiments. Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates and Tesla CEO Elon Musk are among the big names bullish about humanoid robots.
Jefferies Zach Goldberg Seasonality…Carson noted, the S&P 500 is about to be up in November, December, January, and February. The full calendar year has never been lower when that happened before? Higher 14 out of 14 and up 21.2% on average.
4. Monthly Returns Election Years vs. Non-Election Years
Nasdaq Dorsey Wright
5. Investors Back in for Biotech
Dave Lutz Jones Trading BIOTECH BOOMING– WSJ says “Investors Flock Back to Biotech After a Long, Cold Spell” – The deep freeze in biotech is beginning to thaw. About half a dozen biotechnology companies have gone public since the start of 2024, with some raising hundreds of millions of dollars. The jump-start to the new year is a welcome sign for the industry after a challenging two years fueled by layoffs, scientific hurdles and rising interest rates, investors say. Fewer than 20 companies went public in both 2022 and 2023.
Biotechs have attracted more than $6 billion in follow-on financing since the start of the year through mid-February, which Jefferies analysts say is a record-setting pace—one that has already exceeded each quarterly amount recorded since the second quarter of 2021. “The healthy market is back,” said Jordan Saxe, head of healthcare listings at Nasdaq, “and it’s not just a fad.”
6. Biotech ETF Chart-Closes Above 200-Week Moving Average
XBI long-term weekly chart.
7. ZOOM Chart
I have not checked ZM in a long-time …Pop yesterday but sideways 18 months
8. Commodities Fall to Lowest Since 2021
9. Home prices hit a new all-time high in December, says Case-Shiller
Psychology TodayLoren Soeiro, Ph.D. ABPP To turn conflict into agreement, try reframing what you’re asking for.
KEY POINTS
Framing your criticisms and requests in negative ways is likely to cause arguments.
Defensive replies are often triggered by remarks framed toward the negative.
Instead, try asking for what you want and avoiding negative words like “don’t” or “didn’t.”
“I don’t like that outfit.” “Turn down that terrible music.” “You did not do this assignment well.” “I really hate it when you do that.” “This is the wrong road to take.”
If you’re like me, you won’t enjoy hearing any of the above remarks—from your partner, boss, or children. No one ever really wants to hear direct criticism, but difficult truths still need to be communicated. Mistakes happen; people close to you may take wrong turns, make unexpected clothing choices, and play music you don’t enjoy.
Life is full of unavoidable little conflicts that get on our nerves and chip away at our good moods. Usually, though, there is a way to speak up and address them without making things worse.
The most important thing to understand about criticism is that the offense it provokes generally doesn’t arise from the substance of what you’re saying but from how you’ve said it. Think about it: Aren’t most people reasonably able to understand that they’ve made a mistake or chosen an outfit that not everyone will appreciate? Remember what it felt like when you were a student, and your teacher explained that you’d made a mistake in your work but could easily be fixed—would that have been so difficult to hear?
The real issue, then, isn’t the content but the form. And the best way to think about the form of what you’re saying has to do with something quite black and white—or, to be specific, positive and negative. Each of the little criticisms I listed above (which I made up but drew from real-life examples patients have told me over the years.) is formulated in a particular way: toward the negative.
The first example, “I don’t like that outfit,” focuses on something the speaker doesn’t like. The second, “Turn down that terrible music,” goes out of its way to insult the music and demands that its volume be reduced. The third points out that an assignment has been done badly; the fourth uses a very strong word, “hate,” to come down on another person’s behavior. And the last, “This is the wrong road,” simply points out that the driver’s choice is wrong and bad.
If you’ve already noticed the similarities among these examples and the way they are all framed—toward things that are “wrong” or “hated” or “terrible” or “disliked”—perhaps you’ve also suspected what is wrong with this. Simply put, framing one’s remarks toward the negative is almost guaranteed to elicit a defensive response.
If you tell someone else you don’t like something, they’ll most likely shut you down by saying, “Well, I do,” and leaving it at that. If you say you don’t like what they’re wearing, their first impulse will probably be to contradict you and to say why they chose it. Essentially, you’ve just attacked them, and in doing so, you’ve provoked their psychological defenses. (You may also cause hurt feelings, but I’m choosing to center on defensiveness for our purposes.)
To say it another way: When you premise your remarks on criticism, the person you’re speaking to will feel a small burst of defiance inside, and the response you’re most likely to hear will be an expression of that defiance—and a negation of whatever you’ve said. You might hear, “This song is awesome,” or “I don’t care, I always go this way,” or even just “Deal with it.” And if your original remark hasn’t gone over well with them, their response probably won’t strike you in any kind of friendly way, either, and before you know it, you’ll be in a fight.
Now, take a step back, as you might have to do when in the middle of a tough conversation with a friend or partner. Reconsider the gist of what you’re trying to say. What are you really asking for—a change of some kind? Is there a way to reframe your statement to ask for that change without losing the essential meaning?
If you don’t like the music your friend is playing, your goal isn’t to get them to admit that they have terrible taste, but really only to change whatever’s playing to something else. If you don’t like the road your partner has chosen, you probably only want to get to your destination quickly rather than override their choices entirely.
So, is there a way to express these needs without turning them into criticism?
There is if you reframe your remarks away from the negative and toward the positive. You’re really saying the same thing—expressing your preferences in a way that differs but without triggering that defensiveness I mentioned earlier. To wit, “I like the other shirt a little better” is much less likely to cause a fight than “I don’t like that outfit.” You’re saying what you like rather than complaining about what you don’t.
Try the other examples, too:
“Turn down that terrible music” vs. “Can we put on something else for a while?”
“You did this assignment badly.” vs. “I think you might need to revisit this part.”
“I really hate it when you do that.” vs. “I really like it when you do this instead.”
“This is the wrong road to take.” vs. “I’ve always thought the other way was faster.”
In each case, you make the same points without making it personal. It’s a small thing, of course, but in many cases, it’s not as easy as it seems because criticisms can slip out before we notice what we’re saying. But taking a few moments to anticipate what we’re about to say can often save a lot of conflict, argument, or hurt feelings.
In this way, framing your comments toward the positive and doing your best not to provoke defensive reactions can make it much easier to get difficult points across.
1. Follow-Up to Yesterday’s #1-Looks Like Hedge Funds Pulling Back on Tech
Dave Lutz Jones Trading Figures showed that after piling into tech stocks in the weeks before Nvidia Corp.’s earnings, hedge funds are now cashing out and selling at the fastest pace in seven months. Professional managers offloaded their positions for four straight sessions last week, including Thursday, the day after Nvidia posted results, according to data from Goldman’s prime-brokerage unit. The intensity of the selling ranks in the 98th percentile of the past five years.
The data suggests traders are booking profits on their tech wagers after a six-week buying streak and putting that extra cash into less volatile stocks, such as consumer staples. Companies that make household products saw the most net buying in 10 weeks, according to Goldman’s prime brokerage
2. S&P Positive 15 Out of 17 Weeks
Jim Reid Deutsche Bank We are in rarefied air in terms of the relentless risk rally since the end of October. Today’s CoTD is adapted from my colleague Henry Allen’s latest Mapping Markets (link here) and shows that the S&P 500 has now been up for 15 out of the last 17 weeks. This is the first time since 1989 that’s happened, and before that you’d need to go back to 1972 for such a run. If we get yet another advance this week, it would be 16 out of 18 for the first time since 1971, the joint record in an 18-week run.
Interestingly, looking at all such 15/17 week runs, the median price performance in the next 13 and 26 weeks is +2.0% and +5.5%, respectively, which are both high relative to an annual price move of around 6% over the last 100 years. So there is no specific evidence, from history, of mean reversion once you see one of these runs.
8. Private Equity Funds Operating in Real Estate Sitting on $544B in Cash
Cash-Flush Buyers Dip into Distressed Commercial RE
Some data shows that global real estate funds operated by private-equity firms held $544B in cash at the end of 2Q 2023, up from $457B at the end of 2Q 2022.
NEW YORK – Regional banks and other lenders have grown concerned about the volatility in commercial real estate, but investors are poised to scoop up distressed properties with cash.
Preqin data show that global real estate funds operated by private-equity firms held $544 billion in cash at the end of 2023’s second quarter, up from $457 billion at the end of 2Q 2022.
The pressure is on for office building, hotel, and apartment building owners, as higher debt-service costs are hitting those with floating rate debt. For example, Harbor Group International spent more than $600 million over the last year on seven apartment building developments, two of which are in Palm Beach, Florida, but some of those apartment buildings were not filling up as quickly as expected.
Richard Litton, president of Harbor Group, said, “Given the pressure on regional banks, those extension options were not necessarily available to developers. Now, investors are ready to either buy the properties or offer owners rescue capital for preferred returns.”
MSCI Real Assets data found that by the end of 2023, commercial property distress totaled $85.8 billion, up from $56.9 billion at the end of 2022 and the highest level since the third quarter of 2013.
Distress is likely to continue, forcing owners to refinance, particularly the over $2.2 trillion in commercial mortgages scheduled to mature between 2024 and 2027, reports Trepp.
However, with the availability of capital from funds and other resources for distressed assets, the struggles of the commercial property market are not near the levels of the 2008-2009 financial crisis.
Source: Wall Street Journal (02/12/24) Grant, Peter
Chinese automaker BYD this weekend unveiled a new electric supercar that can hit speeds similar to high-end models by industry giants like Ferrari.
The U9 will be released as part of BYD’s luxury brand Yangwang, which was introduced last year.
BYD is a key competitor for Tesla as competition in the global electrical vehicle market runs hot.
Chinese automaker BYD this weekend unveiled a new electric supercar that it says can hit speeds similar to high-end models produced by industry giants like Ferrari.
The U9 supercar will be part of BYD’s luxury brand Yangwang, which was only introduced last year and has launched two other vehicles.
According to BYD, the U9 will be able to reach a top speed of 309.19 kph, or 192.12 mph. It will also be able to accelerate to 100 kph within 2.36 seconds.
This is comparable to supercars produced by long-established brands like Ferrari, whose hybrid SF90 Stradale model can accelerate to 100 kph in 2.5 seconds, according to the company’s website.
Prices for the U9 will start from 1.68 million yuan ($233,424) and deliveries are due to begin this summer, BYD said in a press release.
Friends are the cornerstone of a fulfilling and happy life. But some friendships can veer into toxicity, leaving emotional scars that make us want to withdraw altogether.
As a psychologist and expert in human connection, belonging and friendship, I help people recognize the signs of toxic relationships. But as my fellow friendship expert Danielle Bayard-Jackson argues, the most toxic friends often use crafty and underhanded forms of aggression.
Here are eight phrases that will help you spot even subtle signs of a toxic friendship:
1. ‘You’re too sensitive.’
When friends say “you’re too sensitive,” they imply that your feelings aren’t valid and that there’s something wrong with you for having them.
But expressing your emotions is a healthy part of any friendship, and being told you’re too sensitive may indicate your friend lacks empathy.
2. ‘I was just joking. Can’t you take a joke?’
Good friends are responsive and try to meet your needs. When you tell a friend you’re hurt, responsiveness looks like them trying to understand why and adjusting their behavior.
In a toxic friendship, they may instead say things like “Can’t you take a joke?” as a defense to camouflage hurtful comments and avoid accountability.
3. ‘You’re lucky to have me as a friend.’
Healthy friendships are built on equality. You’re both invested and neither of you is viewed as better than the other.
If you constantly hear your friend asserting their superiority or suggesting you should be grateful for their presence, it may be a sign of an imbalanced relationship in which you’re not valued.
4. ‘I miss the old you.’
Friends should allow you to be who you are, whether or not it fits their personal values, and encourage you to change and grow.
If your friend expresses discomfort with positive changes or, worse, undermines your progress, it could be a sign that you’ve outgrown the friendship or that your friend doesn’t have your best interests in mind.
5. ‘You owe me.’
While reciprocity is important, if a friend expects you to repay everything they offer, it may mean they see the relationship as transactional.
As you get close to someone, you begin to include them in your sense of self, so what hurts them hurts you and what makes them happy makes you happy. That’s why good friends feel comfortable being generous.
6. ‘I wonder why they gave you that promotion.’
Having a friend who downplays your accomplishments or tries to one-up your success (e.g., “Well I just got a big raise”) undercuts your confidence and joy.
In healthy friendships, friends engage in something called “capitalization,” amplifying your joy by cheerfully exclaiming congratulations or taking you out to celebrate.
7. ‘I’m sorry you feel that way.’
True reconciliation requires each party to recognize the harm they caused. When a friend apologizes because you feel a certain way, they imply that the problem is your feelings rather than their behavior.
If expressing your concerns or setting boundaries is met with dismissive comments like this one, your friend isn’t taking accountability for their impact on you.
8. ‘…’ (as in nothing, they just ghost you)
Losing a friendship often triggers something called “disenfranchised grief,” an experience that occurs because society trivializes friendship and doesn’t legitimize the gravity of the loss. That grief is compounded when you don’t even know why a friend is pulling away.
Getting ghosted, one study found, makes you feel hurt and sad and lowers your self-esteem. Even if they want to end a friendship, friends should show regard for you by telling you explicitly.
Diagnosing and dealing with a toxic friendship
Of course, no single phrase alone can diagnose a friendship as toxic. So be sure to consider these phrases within the larger dynamics by asking yourself questions like:
Do they show up when I’m in need?
Do they want the best for me?
Is there a balance where each of our needs are met?
If you find these phrases reflect a larger toxic dynamic, it may be a sign to pull back, set boundaries, or have an honest conversation and move on.
2. Japan and U.S. Higher Than Average Earnings vs. Emerging
Global Developments: Japan and the US experienced significantly higher-than-average earnings outperformance in Q4, in contrast to Emerging Markets, which persistently fell short of estimates.
Nasdaq Dorsey Wright Another one bites the dust: Conference Board walks back US recession call This week has been a quiet one for data. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) was the one big release we got. As a leading indicator of the economy, the LEI is meant to predict when the US economy is headed for recession. Well… the latest data show it’s contracted for the 23rd straight month! Despite this, the Conference Board became the latest forecaster to walk back its US recession prediction. https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright
A fast-growing exchange-traded fund called BOXX uses an old loophole in a new way.
A Marine Corps veteran with a finance Ph.D. has come up with a new way to avoid taxes. Any American holding US government securities has to pay income taxes on the interest they generate. For the richest investors, the Internal Revenue Service’s cut is 37%. But a year-old investment fund offers returns that closely track short-term Treasuries, with starkly lower tax bills. The fund, Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box ETF, uses a complex options strategy and a longstanding tax loophole that favors exchange-traded funds. “We spent seven years figuring out how to do this,” said Wesley Gray, the ex-Marine and chief executive officer of Alpha Architect. “My job is just to deliver all the value I possibly can to my shareholders, within the law.” The fund, known by its ticker BOXX, surpassed $1 billion in assets this month. It is one of a number of efforts to use the ETF loophole in creative new ways, said Jeffrey Colon, a tax professor at Fordham University’s School of Law in New York. He called BOXX “the poster child for tax arbitrage.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-22/this-exchange-traded-fund-mimics-t-bill-returns-without-tax-bills?sref=GGda9y2L
9. CYBERSECURITY -Leaked files expose China’s network of hackers
Morningbrew Thanks to an anonymous whistleblower, the world now has more insight than ever into the Chinese government’s cyber-espionage efforts, which US officials rank as one of America’s top security threats. Hundreds of pages posted to GitHub last week and deemed credible detail how officials in China hire private-sector hackers to surveil and disrupt societies domestically and abroad, fueling a lively cyberspying marketplace. The documents showed the cards of one Chinese hacking firm, ISoon. According to the files, over at least eight years:
ISoon hackers contracted with Chinese government bureaus to target political dissidents in China and government officials in 20+ foreign nations, including the UK, by infiltrating social media or email accounts, wi-fi networks, and other infrastructure.
The firm mostly helped China get info from other Asian countries, including road network data from Taiwan, which could help the Chinese military in an invasion.
ISoon’s product list claimed to be able to gain remote access to Microsoft Outlook and Hotmail accounts and to Apple iOS smartphone GPS, contacts, and recording. But internal chats show that ISoon frequently failed to steal info from governments.
The US has been sounding the alarm. China’s support for and payment of contracted hackers has created such a large cyberespionage network that China’s hackers outnumber the FBI’s cyber/intelligence people 50 to 1, FBI Director Christopher Wray warned Congress last month.—ML https://www.morningbrew.com/daily
10. Fate Doesn’t Care
The Daily Stoic After everything that’s happened in the last few years, we’re tired. After everything that’s happened in your life, after everything that’s gone wrong the last couple weeks, you think to yourself, “I can’t handle one more thing going wrong.” Certainly, Marcus Aurelius would have related to the sentiment. Floods. Plagues. Wars. A troubled son. Personal health issues. “Haven’t I given enough?” we had him say in a recent Daily Stoic video. But the thing is, life doesn’t care. It has no time for your questions. It pays no mind to your limits. “I don’t think I’m up for this,” the novelist John Gregory Dunne said to his wife as they left the hospital after rushing to check on their daughter who had just been admitted. He was down about his career. He wasn’t feeling great about his own health. He was sick about his only child. He was worried it would be a long and hard road out for all of them. Joan Didion, his steely, stoic wife, responded with something we can imagine Marcus Aurelius reminding himself of in Meditations: “You don’t get a choice.” Fortune behaves as she pleases, the Stoics said. Life disposes. It decides. The only thing we get a choice in is how we respond.
Barrons Adjusted for inflation, that average 1983 price of $39.06 is worth $120.30 in today’s dollars. That doesn’t fully explain the increase in stock prices, but a precipitous decline in stock splits probably does. Silverblatt tells me that in 1983, 90 S&P 500 companies split their stock. Last year, only four did. According to Josh Staiger of Multpl, the market’s price-to-book ratio is 4.61, not a record (that was 5.06 in March 2000), but well above the average of 3.01. High stock prices aren’t just anecdotal—data bear it out, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices. The average price of a stock in the S&P 500 is now $204.28, Silverblatt says, with some 73% of them (or 281 stocks) selling for more than $100 and nine trading for more than $1,000. Compare that with 40 years ago, when the average price was $39.06 and only about 4% (or nine) issues traded for more than $100, and zero over $1,000.
2. Private Equity Payouts at Major Firms Plummet 49% in Two Years-Bloomberg
Distributions to fund investors falling amid deal drought Fund investors zeroing in on a new metric for PE investments By Layan Odeh, Matthew Griffin, and Gillian Tan
3. 10 Companies Represent 25% of Euro Stoxx 600 Index
Euro News The rise of GRANOLAS By Piero Cingari-The GRANOLAS represent around a quarter of the STOXX 600’s market cap, and equate to the total market capitalisation of heavyweight sectors such as Energy, Basic Resources, Financials, and Automobiles. Reflecting on the changing tides of the European market, Goldman Sachs noted a significant shift from traditional industry leaders like Telecoms and Oil two decades ago, to a diverse array of sectors today. “Twenty years ago, at the start of 2000, the 10 biggest companies in Europe based on market cap were all Telecoms and Oil names, with the exception of HSBC. If we fast-forward to the Covid crisis, there were no Banks, Oil or Telecoms companies among the largest 10 in Europe,” Goldman Sachs’ analyst, Peter Oppenheimer, wrote in a note to clients on Monday. In the past twelve months, the GRANOLAS have notched up over €500 billion of revenue, showcasing an 8% annual surge. “They are a large part of the reason why European equities have performed well despite lacklustre domestic GDP,” Goldman Sachs noted. They’ve delivered a 15% average gain over the past year, outstripping the STOXX 600’s 5% and contributing to 60% of the index’s overall growth.
5. Two Charts I was Watching for New Highs…Buybacks and Spin-Offs…..
6. One More to Watch..IPO…Still Long Way to Go for New Highs.
7. Business Insider Russia has never been richer after selling $37 billion in oil to India last year
Jennifer Sor Prime Minister Narendra Modi, right, and President Vladimir Putin of Russia speaking at a conference in 2014. .
Russia’s record revenue in 2023 was partly attributable to India’s huge appetite for Russian crude.
India took in $37 billion of Russian oil last year, 13 times what it bought before the Ukraine war.
India, however, is under growing pressure to comply with Western sanctions.
Russia has never been this flush with cash — and it’s partly thanks to India, which snapped up a monster amount of Russian crude last year. Russia’s federal revenue soared to a record $320 billion in 2023 — an amount partly attributable to India’s huge appetite for cheap Russian oil, according to a new report from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air shared with CNN. The nation bought $37 billion of crude from Russia last year, the report said, around 13 times what it purchased from Russia before the war in Ukraine. India has been a huge customer of Russian crude since Moscow began its invasion of Ukraine. After being slammed by Western trade restrictions, Moscow has doled out hefty discounts to its allies, like India and China, who have since gobbled up huge amounts of oil from the nation. https://www.businessinsider.com
9. Silicon Valley Venture Capitalists Are Breaking Up With China-Dealbook
Under intensifying scrutiny from U.S. lawmakers, top firms have pulled back from investing in Chinese start-ups. By Erin Griffith
DCM Ventures, a Silicon Valley venture capital firm, began investing in China’s start-ups in 1999. The move reaped such blockbuster returns that in 2021, DCM said it planned to “double down” on its strategy of investing in China, the United States and Japan. Yet when DCM set out to raise money last fall for a new fund focused on very young companies and promoted its “cross-Pacific” expertise, the firm described plans to invest in the United States, Japan and South Korea, according to a fund-raising memo that was viewed by The New York Times. China was not mentioned. DCM’s messaging is one example of an industrywide shift happening between Silicon Valley investors and Chinese start-ups. U.S. venture capital firms that once saw China as the next frontier for innovation and investment returns are backing away, with some separating their Chinese operations from their American business and others declining to make new investments there. The about-face stems from the tense relationship between the United States and China as they jockey for geopolitical, economic and technological primacy. The countries have engaged in a trade war amid a diplomatic rift, enacting tit-for-tat restrictions including U.S. moves to curb future investments in China and to scrutinize past investments in sensitive sectors. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/21/technology/silicon-valley-vc-china.html
10. 5 Reasons People Get Laid Off-HBR
HBR by Marlo Lyons Summary. As companies continue to conduct layoffs, despite signs of economic recovery, it’s normal to feel powerless. Sometimes thwarting a layoff is impossible. For example, there’s not much you can do if your entire business unit is being cut because company goals have…more Despite signs of economic recovery, including lower inflation rates and sustained low unemployment, the start of 2024 has already seen a surge in layoffs, surpassing 10,000 within the tech industry alone at the time of writing. Macy’s, Wayfair, Ford, and Citigroup are among the other companies who have already announced layoffs this year. This leaves many workers in a state of uncertainty, waiting to find out if they’re next to be cut. It’s normal to feel powerless in this position. There’s not much you can do if your entire business unit is being cut because company goals have changed and your work is no longer relevant, or if the company over-hired and revenue has unexpectedly dropped. However, there are proactive measures you can take that will help you manage your stress. Here are five common reasons people are laid off — and strategies to help you assert some control over your professional destiny. 1. Lack of skills advancement Employees are 100% responsible for continually upskilling and reskilling. While companies may offer resources to learn new skills, they tend to teach to the entire employee population, so most talent development programs focus on management skills such as giving feedback, leadership skills such as influencing without authority, and soft skills such as emotional intelligence. But employees need to continue to advance their hard skills, such as becoming technically proficient in AI applications or new programming languages. Those who don’t continue to evolve their skills to keep up with rapidly changing business needs may be targeted for layoffs. Recent advancements in generative AI and large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT provide a timely example. While this technology has been predicted to replace human workers at a large scale, for now it may be replacing tech workers who don’t have AI skills. As companies update their core products with this new technology, they’ll be looking for talent who have LLM expertise. Even if you’re an expert in natural language processing, machine learning, or natural language understanding technologies, if you haven’t gained expertise in LLMs, which can generate contextually accurate text, answer queries, summarize text, and preform language translation, then your skills are already outdated. Showing a dedication to reskilling yourself in a new space and demonstrating those skills during the transition to a new way of doing business could save your job. Therefore, employees should take a proactive approach to gaining skills and knowledge based on where the market and company are heading to ensure their skills remain relevant. 2. You’re an “overseer,” not a “doer” When companies decide to implement budget cuts, the finance department typically allocates a specific percentage reduction to each department. The most straightforward method to meet the assigned cut percentage is to eliminate the positions of individuals with the highest salaries, particularly if they’re not actively involved in accomplishing the work. Managers who lack hands-on involvement may be seen as less valuable to the organization, as there is a perception that they’re not directly contributing to task and project execution. This perception could increase the likelihood of them being considered expendable during cost-cutting measures. Managers who are invaluable to an organization find a balance between strategic leadership and hands-on involvement without micromanaging their teams. They’re perceived as more adaptable and capable of responding quickly to changes, making them more resilient in volatile business situations. Managers who have deep understanding of team dynamics, challenges, and goals and who can demonstrate their ability to speak to the details will make seem like they’re the glue holding the team together, which makes it harder to see their role as dispensable. 3. Lack of visibility Being the quiet worker bee won’t protect you from being laid off. In fact, being invisible could be your downfall. When determining which roles to cut, if senior leadership doesn’t know who you are, what you do, or the impact you make, your job could be an easy choice for elimination. In times of organizational changes or restructuring, being visible can help mitigate the risk of being overlooked or underestimated. Your visibility can act as a form of job security by ensuring decision makers are aware of your capabilities and impact. Having visibility at all levels in an organization can help you create a strong network of colleagues and senior leaders who can vouch for your contributions and accomplishments. It could also show leaders you can succeed if plugged into any position. If decision makers have a clear understanding of your skills, achievements, and contributions, they’re more likely to view your position as essential to the success of the company, or they may see you as the person to combine teams under when other roles are eliminated. 4. Lack of performance When companies need to cut their budgets, they’ll likely try to eliminate those who are considered non-performers. Where more than one person is doing a particular job, layoffs provide managers a ripe opportunity to cut low performers without having to do the hard work of giving them more feedback or putting them on a performance improvement plan. Employees must realize their manager’s perception means everything. So even if you think you’re doing a great job, if your manager doesn’t agree, you could be deemed a poor performer and be on the chopping block. Therefore, employees need to proactively request feedback from their managers more often than just during the performance-review period. Once you receive feedback, continually work on improving, and check back in with your manager to see whether they agree that your performance has improved. 5. Offshoring and automation The automation or offshore relocation of specific jobs is determined based on strategic, economic, and operational costs as well as technological advancements. Companies may opt for offshoring to countries with lower labor costs where the talent pool is rich with expertise. They may also implement automation technologies that prove more efficient and accurate than human labor to cut expenses associated with salaries, benefits, and operational overhead. The World Economic Forum’s 2023 Future of Jobs Report delves into which jobs will likely shift toward automation, minimizing the need for human interaction. To safeguard against a potential layoff, it’s critical to stay informed about market trends and assess whether your chosen career is prone to offshoring or automation in the future. In some cases, U.S.-based companies may have a U.S. manager overseeing offshored talent or automated processes. That may pose further challenges for early-career professionals who want to grow into management positions and are seeking experience through jobs that have been offshored or automated to get there. If you discover your job is one that’s likely to be automated in the future or you see trends moving toward offshoring your type of position, find ways to gain new skills that will help you transition to another field with less risk and will be just as (if not more) fulfilling. For example, you could take on a stretch project in another department at your company or form a side hustle consultancy. . . . Building a reputation for being a valuable team member through your work and relationships is key to minimizing your risk of being laid off. Ensure your leadership and cross-functional stakeholders know your contributions and the impact you bring to the organization as well as where you’ve upskilled to stay relevant, which will help position you as an indispensable asset. This proactive approach helps ensure that your value is recognized long before any decisions about layoffs are made.
Jim Reid Deutsche Bank To illustrate, today’s CoTD looks at the market cap of the Mag-7 versus that of the US Regional bank equity index with 50 constituents, and the S&P Financials index with 72 members including the mega banks. The Mag-7 are collectively c.64 times bigger than the entire US Regional Bank index.
3. AAPL-Two Lower Highs and Close Below 200-Day
4. Is SMCI the New MEME?
Bloomberg Carmen ReinickeStill, short sellers are sticking to their bets that Super Micro’s climb will eventually end. In the last 30 days, the group has increased shares shorted by 12%, piling an additional $623 million into bets against the artificial intelligence darling, per S3.
On Friday, the cost of puts — which serve as downside protection — sank less than equivalent calls, which give exposure to added gains. That dynamic reversed trading patterns earlier in the week, when seemingly boundless euphoria for artificial intelligence pumped interest in call options and propelled the one-month call skew to its highest level in more than a year.
Short sellers may be emboldened by the San Jose, California-based company’s sharp moves higher. The stock rallied 246% in 2023 and is up 183% so far this year, a jump that has some resemblance to the social media-fueled gains of AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. and GameStop Corp. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/super-micro-short-sellers-notch-124640928.html
Business Insider Yuheng Zhan Housing starts collapsed 14.8% month-over-month in January to a five-month low, according to Census Bureau data released Friday.
The annualized rate of 1.331 million units came as as a surprise compared to consensus estimates, and the sudden plummet was even more stark relative to a big upward revision to December’s 1.562 million, up from an initial 1.46 million Building permits also dropped 1.5% to 1.47 million, falling short of the forecast of 1.512 million. Private housing completions also disappointed, dropping 8.1% below the revised December estimate to 1.416 million.
Building of single-family homes experienced a 4.7% decline following a 6.4% drop in December — marking the sharpest consecutive decline in that segment of the market since the summer of 2022.
According to best-selling author and star psychologist Adam Grant, there’s one response that’s a sure sign your EQ is very low — and it can be captured in just one four-word phrase.
“I don’t judge emotions, but I do judge the way that people give up agency over their emotions,” Grant tells David. “A sign of emotional intelligence is abandoning the phrase ‘You made me feel.’ Because you’re giving other people power over your emotions. No one can make me feel anything, to take the line misattributed to Viktor Frankl.”
Which means if you regularly use that same phrase — “You made me feel” — you might be sitting on an opportunity to significantly improve your own EQ.
It’s not that other people don’t influence our emotions. Of course they do. Nor is anyone arguing that other people’s behavior can’t be genuinely awful and worthy of our anger, sadness, or disappointment. Grant is also at pains to emphasize his comment should not be seen as letting genuine bad actors off the hook.
“I’m not talking about abusive relationships here. If you’re being, you know, gaslit by a manipulative narcissist, that is not what we’re describing,” he underlines.
But the two psychologists stress just how disempowering it is to believe there is no freedom of action — no conscious choice — between other people’s everyday problematic behavior and our mental and emotional response to it. “There is a space between stimulus and response. You control your behavior, but I choose my reactions,” Grant insists.
A Wiser approach to your emotions
The idea that we have the capacity to choose how we respond to provocations and disappointments is appealing. But it also raises an important question. If “You made me feel” is a red flag for low emotional intelligence because it implies other people control our feelings entirely, what is the alternative approach? How exactly do you create and employ that “space between stimulus and response” Grant talks about?
Grant and David share some ideas in the podcast. David, for example, suggests a subtle but important switch in how you think about your emotions: “If we think about the language that we use, when we say, ‘I am,’ I am sad. I am angry. I am being undermined … You are showing complete linguistic fusion between yourself and your emotion.”
Here, there is no space between stimulus and response in which you can make a different choice. Instead of “I am sad,” David suggests, tell yourself “I’m noticing that I’m feeling sad.” Research shows emotions are stories we tell ourselves to explain physical and mental sensations. When you use language to remind yourself they are constructed in this way, you give yourself space to tell different, better stories.
That’s a fascinating approach — and one I’ve written about before — but I recently read about a more practical method that translates academic theory into simple, everyday practice. It’s called the Wiser method and it’s endorsed by decades of research. Wiser stands for watch, interpret, select, engage, reflect.
You can read about it in detail here, but it basically boils down to exactly what Grant recommends. Rather than feeling hijacked by your emotions, you observe and probe them before choosing how you want to label your feelings and respond in practice. In this model, others can give you unpleasant fodder for consideration, but they can’t make you feel anything that doesn’t serve you.
Trying to tamp down or ignore emotions through sheer force of will seldom works, but taking a step back and considering your feelings before acting on them is an excellent way to significantly increase your emotional intelligence.
Dave Lutz Jones Trading Cam notes As we await NVDA’s earnings report keep this in mind: BoA Global Fund Manager Survey shows a possible crowded long in technology positioning, but managers can stay overweight for years.
22% Russell’s weight reports, and 45% of XOP’s – but all eyes on NVDA Wednesday.
2. A $700 Billion Insurance Product Is Powering the US Credit Market Rally-Bloomberg
Annuity sales could total about $700 billion in next two years
Funds likely to be allocated to corporate and structured debt
An insurance product that consumers use to help fund their retirements is selling at record levels, powering demand for corporate debt and commercial mortgage bonds.
Last year, sales of annuities, which allow consumers to effectively buy income for the rest of their lives, reached an all-time record high of $385 billion, according to life insurance trade group Limra. That’s up 23% from the year before. The products grew more attractive as rising interest rates translate into higher potential annual payouts from the products.
Behind the scenes, the life insurers that usually sell annuities are buying bonds to generate income for the products, and in particular, corporate debt and asset-backed securities including mortgage bonds. Their demand might decline a bit this year after bond yields have fallen, but Limra says annuity sales are still expected to remain strong by historic standards.
6. Walmart Did Make New Highs Prior to Today’s Earnings
7. Another Day…Another China Implosion Chart …Foreign Investments in China $350B to $50B
China’s direct investment liabilities in its balance of payments stood at $33 billion last year, according to data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange released Sunday. That measure of new foreign investment into the country — which records monetary flows connected to foreign-owned entities in China — was 82% lower than the 2022 level and the lowest since 1993.
Barrons The country’s overcapacity and overproduction pose risks not just to China but also to rivals in these sectors abroad. Take solar panels. Beijing mandated that state-owned enterprises get half of their energy capacity from renewables by 2025, contributing to strong solar panel growth. But prices for solar inputs and panels have tumbled. Eurasia Group estimates that 60% to 70% of solar firms could face bankruptcy or acquisitions in the next couple of years, potentially saddling Beijing with another debt-laden sector. By Reshma Kapadia
Equities: Dividend growers have been outperforming the average stock in the S&P 500
Source: The Daily Shot
6. SMCI Hit Wall Street Record 97 RSI (overbought) Before Sell-Off Friday
SMCI AI Small Cap
7. PitchBook Analyst Note: Estimating US VC First-Time Manager Dropouts
37% of first-time VCs will not be able to raise a second fund
2021 was the heyday for new entrants in venture capital: First-time fundraising reached a peak of $14.7 billion, including to more inexperienced managers without bulletproof track records or networks. Now that LPs have retreated, those same fund managers are in trouble, according to our latest VC analyst note.
More than 247 first-time managers who closed funds between 2019 to 2021 will not be able to raise a sophomore fund, according to PitchBook estimates. Those particularly at risk of being incapable of raising a second VC fund will likely be managers of funds with less than $10 million in commitments and those in emerging US markets.
8. China Vows to Centralize Tech Development Under Communist Party
Xi’s party will take more direct role in steering development
Tech leadership is a major priority for China’s government
China’s ruling Communist Party vowed to enhance its role in steering its science and technology industries, centralizing decision-making power as the country navigates US trade curbs designed to limit its advancement.
The party will refine a mechanism whereby technological works are led by the Central Committee, according to state broadcaster CCTV citing a central government meeting led by President Xi Jinping. The news broadcast didn’t specify details of the plan, though the pronouncement marks an escalation of Beijing’s prioritization of a sector that China’s leaders consider of critical importance.
A year ago, Xi called for China to accelerate scientific research and replace foreign technologies with homegrown alternatives. His remarks were part of a broader push to stimulate both domestic efforts and international cooperation in the pursuit of technological independence from the US. Export controls from Washington have curtailed China’s access to the most advanced semiconductors, especially those made by Nvidia Corp. to accelerate artificial intelligence training.
China is now elevating the party’s role in directing its fight against the US for leadership across an array of strategic technologies, including semiconductors and AI.
Xi had earlier tapped his top deputy, former Vice Premier Liu He, to oversee development of China’s own chip technologies. Under that regime, Huawei Technologies Co.’s moonshot chipmaking effort yielded results that surprised outside observers by producing a modern smartphone chip without recourse to US tech.
BOSTON — Can we finally stop the aging process? Researchers at Brigham and Women’s Hospital (BWH) are hoping so after developing a DNA clock that may unlock the secrets of aging. These new epigenetic clocks can more accurately predict biological aging and the effectiveness of anti-aging treatments. This study introduces a machine-learning model capable of distinguishing between genetic factors that either accelerate or decelerate the aging process, a distinction not made by previous models.
The research revolves around the concept of DNA methylation, a biological process that modifies the DNA structure and affects how genes function. This process is closely linked to aging, with certain DNA regions, known as CpG sites, being particularly influential. The novel epigenetic clocks, named CausAge, DamAge, and AdaptAge, are designed to parse out which methylation changes are merely associated with aging from those that directly cause it.
“Previous clocks considered the relationship between methylation patterns and features we know are correlated with aging, but they don’t tell us which factors cause one’s body to age faster or slower. We have created the first clock to distinguish between cause and effect,” says study corresponding author Dr. Vadim Gladyshev, a principal investigator in the Division of Genetics at BWH, in a media release. “Our clocks distinguish between changes that accelerate and counteract aging to predict biological age and assess the efficacy of aging interventions.”
To develop these clocks, researchers employed an epigenome-wide Mendelian Randomization (EWMR) on over 20,000 CpG sites across the genome, correlating them with eight aging-related traits, including lifespan, health span, and frailty index. This technique allowed them to establish causation rather than a mere correlation between DNA structure and observable aging traits.
Zach Goldberg Jefferies Will rational optimism turns into irrational exuberance? Applying the peak of the TMT bubble maths to the Nasdaq-100, the S&P 500 would have to reach 6250 to price-in the same level of irrational exuberance, according to the excellent cross-asset team at Soc Gen.
At the peak of the TMT bubble, the Tech sector traded at 2x its profit share in the S&P 500. Today it is at 1.25x of profits.
SPX was at a 25x fwd P/E; today we are 20xfwd P/E.
Applying the peak of the TMT bubble maths to the Nasdaq-100, the S&P 500 would have to reach 6250 to price-in the same level of irrational exuberance.
2. Lower AI Mentions on Earnings Calls
Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, Partner
3. Zuck vs. AAPL ….Apple Lags Again vs. QQQ Yesterday
Morningbrew Letter
The billionaire grand dork of the metaverse, Mark Zuckerberg, took a digital dump on Apple’s new wearable technology yesterday in a three-minute Instagram reel about Meta’s Quest 3 headset that may as well have been captioned “she is very gorgeous to me!”
“I don’t just think that Quest is the better value, I think Quest is the better product, period,” the Meta CEO said in the video, which was recorded on a Quest 3 by a guy sitting across from him. Zuck telling the internet he believes Quest 3 out-headsets Vision Pro is about as much of a shocker as Zuck having a home bunker for gaming.
What’s more surprising is…that he shouted it from the rooftops on his personal Instagram account. Zuck’s decision to plop down on a couch and Apple Hands™ his way through a Quest 3 demo likely reflects Meta and Apple’s heated race to create the one true mixed-reality headset.
Looking to build on Meta’s head start in the VR/AR space, here’s what Zuck emphasized in his get-ready-with-me video review of Quest 3 vs. Vision Pro:
Quest can also do the mixed-reality-floating-screens thing that Apple calls “spatial computing,” except Meta’s goggles start at $500, compared to $3,500 for Vision Pro.
Quest doesn’t have a wired battery pack and is still about a bar of soap lighter than the Vision Pro, which some have criticized for causing headaches and neck pain.
Zuck gave a shout-out to the Apple “fanboys” who “get upset whenever anyone dares to question if Apple’s going to be the leader in a new category,” but he admitted that the Vision Pro’s screen resolution is superior and that the eye-tracking function is “really nice.”
It’s still anybody’s game. Meta started selling AR/VR headsets after it acquired Oculus in 2014. While its work has been overshadowed by the hype surrounding the Vision Pro lately, reviews of the new Apple product do not indicate an iPhone moment yet, and people have even started returning the headsets.—ML
1. S&P 500 Trading at Largest Valuation vs. S&P Equal Weight in 10 Years
Jack Ablin Cresset The S&P 500 is trading at a sizable valuation premium to the average S&P stock: it’s currently situated at more than four multiple turns above that of the equal-weighted market. That’s the largest valuation premium in more than 10 years thanks to the dominance of the largest names.
Dave Lutz at Jones Trading No Shorts out there in Treasuries, as it is a way crowded long in anticipation of Fed Easing – The “Pain Trade” was a rip higher in yields.
3. Look for U.S. Dollar Break-Out
Negative for international stocks if dollar breaks-out
4. South Korea Nowhere for 5 Years
Barrons Korea’s Kospi Composite Index, the country’s main benchmark, has dropped an annualized 4.5%, including reinvested dividends, over the past three years, lagging not only the S&P 500’s 10% return but the MSCI World Index’s 7.6%. That’s reflected in the Kospi index’s price/book ratio of just 0.2 times, which means the companies are worth less than their total net assets. The MSCI World index trades at just over three times book.
Barrons By Randall W. ForsythIndeed, the expansion of legal gambling has been a boon to stock market investors, notably those who have ridden shares of DraftKings. The Almost Daily Grant’s note this past week, from the invaluable advisory headed by Barron’s alum Jim Grant, pointed out that DraftKings’ shares were up some 283% from late 2022. That raised the company’s valuation to near $20 billion despite it having posted negative adjusted Ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, a measure of cash flow) in each quarter going back to the start of 2019. DraftKings management sold $145.2 million of stock in the past three months, more than all but five of the 152 U.S.-listed consumer cyclical firms tracked by Bloomberg—proving again that the winners in gambling aren’t the punters but the bookies.
From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading According to the survey, tech allocation is at its highest since August 2020 and fund managers believe that “long Magnificent 7” – a notional basket of the seven biggest U.S. companies by market value that includes AAPL and MSFT – is the most crowded trade right now.
Business Insider Phil RosenNo bottom in sight-As things stand, China’s housing downturn that began in mid-2021 still has no end in sight, according to Goldman Sachs.
Housing starts and new home sales in the country have dropped 64% and 52%, respectively, since peaking at the end of 2020, and analysts expect the country’s inventory glut to keep both variables depressed for several years.
For context, US real house prices peaked in early 2006 and bottomed in 2012. Then, US homeowner vacancy rates peaked in 2008 and did not fall back to their long-term average until a decade later.
Beijing did take action on high home prices in 2016 by tightening mortgage requirements and imposing other restrictions, which were effective in the short term. The pandemic, however, reversed those efforts. Price growth accelerated, and trouble emerged for key developers like Country Garden and Evergrande.
Goldman’s derived measure of China’s real house prices has only dropped by half as much as the US saw during its six-year collapse, as the chart shows below.
Goldman’s gauge for China home prices has declined half as much as the US saw in 2006-2012. Goldman Sachs
“[O]verly loose mortgage lending standards and too much mortgage debt, which were at the center of the US subprime crisis, do not apply in China,” Goldman analysts said. “Instead, overly high house prices, which are rooted in the unique land supply mechanism, are the reason behind many economic distortions. Put differently, while the property problem in the US turned into a financial problem, the property problem in China is fundamentally a fiscal problem that needs to be addressed.”
Jeff Bezos has sold roughly $2 billion worth of Amazon stock in recent days, according to financial filings.
The sales come a few days after he disclosed a separate sale of Amazon stock worth more than $2 billion.
The Amazon founder and executive chairman has accelerated his share sales since he left Seattle to move to Miami.
Amazon founder and executive chairman Jeff Bezos sold roughly $2.08 billion of shares in the company over the past few days, according to a financial filing.
The sales began Friday, the filing shows, and continued Monday. In total, Bezos sold 11,997,698 shares in the company for about $2.08 billion, according to the filing.
The sales were executed under a prearranged trading plan that Bezos adopted in November, which was revealed earlier this month in Amazon’s 2023 annual filing. As part of the plan, Bezos plans to sell 50 million Amazon shares before Jan. 31, 2025.
Bezos, who stepped down as Amazon’s CEO in 2021, unloaded another round of Amazon shares last week, when he sold almost 12 million shares worth more than $2 billion, according to a securities filing. It marked the first time Bezos sold Amazon’s stock since May 2021. He gifted about $240 million worth of Amazon shares last November.
Bezos’ stock sales have accelerated since he announced last November he would leave Seattle and move to Miami, allowing him to be closer to fiancée Lauren Sanchez and his parents, as well as Blue Origin’s operations.
10. It Doesn’t Matter What You Do, the Criticism is Always Going to Be There
The Daily Stoic Nobody wants to be criticized. It doesn’t feel good when people judge what you’ve done. We want the right people to like us, we want all people to like us. We want to be accepted, appreciated, celebrated. So we try to be like other people, like the people that everyone likes.
But in the end, does this effort pay off? No, it doesn’t. You work hard to preempt criticism, to appeal to the trends, to make people like you and then what happens? They still criticize you. Somebody finds something to find fault with you about. Think of how Marcus Aurelius was savaged by critics in his own time, just as he is today by many academic and philosophers, written off by many historians.
Imagine if he had tried instead to conform to their expectations, to fit more clearly in the box they wanted him to be. Imagine if he’d tried to win the mob’s favor or the respect of future generations by conquest or dazzling deed. Imagine if he had written Meditations for an audience instead of from a far more personal and vulnerable place.
It doesn’t matter what you do, the criticism is always going to be there. So you might as well do what you think ought to be done. You might as well do what seems meaningful and important and fulfilling and right to you. People are going to say what they’re going to say, haters will find a way to hate. In the meantime, just be true to yourself, be true to the mission you have, fight for the respect (and praise) of yourself, not the mob, not the future. That’s hard enough to win anyway.
Although it has pulled back as of this writing, at its highs today, Bitcoin reclaimed the $50,000 level. That was the first time the world’s largest crypto currency has traded above that threshold (on an intraday or closing basis) since December 28, 2021. As shown below, following the record high set in November 2021, Bitcoin cratered 76.5% over the next year. Since its bottom in November 2022, the crypto has managed to rally 214%. A significant portion of those gains have come since last summer with steep increases in the price of Bitcoin from October through December and another sharp push higher in the past few weeks. In fact, as recently as January 25th, it was trading below $40,000. But nearly three weeks and $10,000 later, Bitcoin is looking to join the 5.5% of days in which it has formerly traded above $50,000. https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/bitcoin-reclaiming-50000
4. For First Time in Two Decades, U.S. Buys More From Mexico Than China -NYT
By Ana Swanson and Simon Romero The United States bought more goods from Mexico than China in 2023 for the first time in 20 years, evidence of how much global trade patterns have shifted.
A factory in the northern Mexico industrial hub of Saltillo. Mexico was among the markets that American consumers and businesses turned to last year for car parts, shoes, toys and raw materials.Credit…Daniel Becerril/Reuters
In the depths of the pandemic, as global supply chains buckled and the cost of shipping a container from China soared nearly twentyfold, Marco Villarreal spied an opportunity.
In 2021, Mr. Villarreal resigned as Caterpillar’s director general in Mexico and began nurturing ties with companies looking to shift manufacturing from China to Mexico. He found a client in Hisun, a Chinese producer of all-terrain vehicles, which hired Mr. Villarreal to establish a $152 million manufacturing site in Saltillo, an industrial hub in northern Mexico.
Mr. Villarreal said foreign companies, particularly those seeking to sell within North America, saw Mexico as a viable alternative to China for several reasons, including the simmering trade tensions between the United States and China.
“The stars are aligning for Mexico,” he said.
New data released on Wednesday showed that Mexico outpaced China for the first time in 20 years to become America’s top source of official imports — a significant shift that highlights how increased tensions between Washington and Beijing are altering trade flows.
6. Forward 12-Month Earnings Estimates for Russell 2000 Sideways
Small Cap continues to trail S&P
7. NVDA Dominates Data Centre Chip Spending
8. Private Equity Returns Plunge to Global Financial Crisis Levels
Distributions as percent of net asset value fall to 11.2%
Tough M&A, IPO markets impede PE exits, weighing on returns
By Swetha Gopinath and Kat Hidalgo Private equity funds last year returned the lowest amount of cash to their investors since the financial crisis 15 years ago, according to Raymond James Financial Inc., hampering buyout firms in their efforts to launch new investment vehicles. Distributions to so-called limited partners totaled 11.2% of funds’ net asset value, the lowest since 2009 and well below the 25% median figure across the last 25 years, according to the investment bank. Higher borrowing costs, volatile markets and economic uncertainty have made it more difficult for private equity firms to exit their existing investments through sales or initial public offerings. This in turn has hampered their ability to return capital to pension and sovereign wealth funds, besides other key investors, meaning once-reliable clients are struggling to find cash to allocate new money to the asset class.
9. 4.4 Billion People Holding Presidential Elections This Year.
Capital Group This is the biggest election year in world history. Seventy-six countries — home to roughly 4.4 billion people — will hold political contests in 2024. You might call it an “election palooza.”
Some have already taken place. Last month, Taiwan elected a pro-independence candidate who may aggravate already tense relations with China. A few elections are on the way, but largely decided. For instance, no one expects Russian President Vladimir Putin to face a serious challenge on March 17.
Then there is the event the entire world will be watching: U.S. elections on November 5, when the President and Vice President, 34 Senate seats and all 435 members of the House of Representatives will be up for election. Numerous state and local offices, as well as many important ballot measures, will be contested on that day as well.
10. The Meeting of the Minds: Human and Artificial
Psychology Today After thousands of years, the human brain may have found a perfect partner. John Nosta KEY POINTS
Human brains and LLMs form a synergistic relationship, enhancing intellectual activity.
Language is a shared foundation, enriching collective intelligence through mutual understanding.
This partnership amplifies cognitive capabilities, expanding problem-solving and innovation.
The convergence of human and machine intelligence represents a pivotal cognitive and social advance.
The human brain, a masterpiece of cosmic craftsmanship, might just be on the lookout for a like-minded companion. It’s a notion that’s as intriguing as it is speculative: our cerebral circuits, in all their complexity, yearning for an intellectual equal. But let’s not get too carried away just yet.
Our brains, those intricate networks of neurons, are remarkably adept at weaving through the complexities of thought with an ease that belies their biological underpinnings.
Engage in a deep, meandering conversation and you’ll find hours slipping by with the lightness of thought, uniquely untouched by the shadow of fatigue that physical exertion and lactic acid predictably bring. This “ethereal glide” through ideas and concepts, long celebrated in poetry and mysticism as a kind of effortless transcendence, finds an unexpected reflection in the digital realms of Large Language Models.
These LLMs, with their formidable computational might, mirror the human brain’s stamina for sustained thought, unburdened by the physiological limitations that tether us. Herein lies the groundwork for a remarkable partnership, a confluence where the flow of human intellect meets the steadfast currents of artificial intelligence, not in rivalry but in unique synergy that might even be akin to harmony.
It’s Starts with Language At the intersection of human cognition and LLMs lies the complex domain of language, a common ground where the essence of our thoughts and the architecture of AI converge. Language serves as the bridge between these two realms, with its nuanced syntax, semantics, and pragmatics offering the basis for exploration and understanding.
For humans, language is the vessel of consciousness, carrying the weight of our ideas, emotions, and cultural heritage. For LLMs, it is the structured data through which they learn, interpret, and generate responses, mirroring human-like patterns of communication. This shared linguistic foundation enables a unique dialogue between human intelligence and machine algorithms, fostering a collaborative exchange that enriches both the depth and breadth of our collective knowledge and interactions.
The Interplay of Complementary Minds When human cognition collaborates with LLMs, the partnership is marked by complementary capabilities. Humans contribute a deep understanding characterized by subtlety, emotional insight, and creative thinking. In contrast, LLMs bring powerful data processing abilities, extensive memory capacity, and advanced pattern recognition. This combination doesn’t merely enhance our cognitive abilities; it expands them, allowing for more thorough analysis and wider exploration in problem-solving and innovation.
Elevating Collective Wisdom This melding of human and machine intelligence charts a course towards a future unbound by the finite limits of our organic brains. Together, these cognitive partners amplify our mental processes with a machine’s efficiency, broadening our analytical reach and deepening our exploration of complexities. This synergy isn’t just multiplicative; it’s transformative, fostering a unique alliance that bolsters our collective intellect. To say “You complete me” might stretch the metaphor a bit thin, but there’s undeniable magic in this union.
In Search of a Cognitive Counterpart The collaboration between LLMs and the human brain emerges as a remarkable alignment within intellectual development. This partnership, grounded in the mutual language of cognition, seems almost serendipitous, reflecting a natural progression towards enhanced, even optimized cognition.
Along this curious path, it feels evident that the interplay between our innate cognitive abilities and the capabilities of artificial intelligence is an inevitable step in our evolutionary journey. This synergy not only amplifies our existing capacities but also unlocks new avenues of exploration and creativity, suggesting that the synergy of human and machine intellect is a key milestone in our continuous quest for knowledge and understanding.
5. U.S. stocks have just accomplished something that hasn’t happened since 1972
Joseph Adinolfi–Marketwatch U.S. stocks have just accomplished something that hasn’t been done since President Richard Nixon was still occupying the White House.
The S&P 500 SPX has risen for the 14th week out of 15 on Friday. According to Dow Jones Market Data, the last time the large-cap index recorded a comparable stretch of weekly gains was March 10, 1972. This marks the 13th time it has happened since the index’s inception in 1957.
DOW JONES MARKET DATA However, investors don’t need to look as far back to find a precedent for the magnitude of the index’s rise over this period. The S&P 500 has risen 22.1% over the past 15 weeks as of Friday’s close, the largest 15-week advance since a 22.5% gain during the period that ended Aug. 28, 2020, Dow Jones data show.
The index closed above 5,000 for the first time on Friday, its 10th record close of the year, according to Dow Jones data.
To be sure, the S&P 500 isn’t the only major U.S. equity index to score a historic winning streak on Friday. The Nasdaq Composite COMP also climbed for the 14th week out of 15 as well.
Barrons Nearly 66% of pharmacy professionals reported burnout in 2022, according to the Well-Being Index, a survey developed by the Mayo Clinic, and 73% reported emotional problems—higher than rates for physicians, nurses, and medical students.
TSLA international competitor and Warren Buffett Holding BYD…about to break 2022 and 2023 lows.
2. Tesla -24% YTD…TSLA Vs. S&P Chart.
This chart is TSLA vs. S&P…new lows with gap down 2024
3. AAPL held 200day Twice in 2024
4. Tokyo Bank Aozora Loan to Value Book in U.S. …Loan to Value Book (LTVs) Not Good.
Dave Lutz Tokyo-based Aozora Bank plunged more than 20% after warning of a loss tied to investments in US commercial property. In Europe, Deutsche Bank AG more than quadrupled its US real estate loss provisions to €123 million ($133 million) in the fourth quarter from a year earlier
89% of US household debt is fixed rate (mortgage, student, and auto loans) and 11% is floating rate (credit cards, HELOC, and other types of debt).
As a result, the transmission mechanism of monetary policy has been weak. Combined with significant excess savings during the pandemic, Fed hikes have had a limited impact on the consumer.
5. Spin-Off ETF Did Not Make New All-Time Highs Yet
“I guess it comes down to a simple choice – get busy living or get busy dying.” The Shawshank Redemption (1994)
Retirement is more than just years.
The two most integral terms regarding your retirement have zero to do with stocks and bonds.
Understanding the difference between Healthspan and Lifespan drives the quality of your retirement, regardless of how much money you’ve accumulated.
A simple definition of Healthspan is the number of years we feel good. How long can we continue doing the activities that produce the most pleasure? To increase Healthspan, we need freedom from disability and disease.
Lifespan is the length of time we live, disregarding health. The gap between these has noticeably increased over the last 30 years, surging from 10.8 to 12.7 years over this timeframe.
A dominant reason for the increased gap is Americans are living longer. Old age presents more opportunities for developing chronic health conditions.
The dilemma is not all of the disparity is explained by age-related causes. Substance Abuse, Obesity, and Diabetes are becoming more prevalent in younger people. The same applies to mental health disorders.
According to a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention study in 2018, roughly 27% of U.S. adults had multiple chronic conditions, up from 25% in 2012 and 22% in 2001.
Health conditions can wreck the retirement of any individual. Seven-figure portfolios aren’t immune from chronic diseases’ devastating toll.
The data on the importance of Healthspan vs. Lifespan should serve as a wake-up call to anyone who believes a bull market is the prime ingredient for a successful retirement plan.
Developing health conditions takes more than a physical toll. A substantial health problem reduces life satisfaction more than losing a job or becoming widowed, divorced, or separated, according to a 2022 study published in the Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization.
Do you want to live to be a centenarian if the price includes 20-25 years of existing with chronic painful conditions slowly decaying your cognitive and physical abilities?
That’s the distinction between Healthspan and Lifespan.
Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG noted that a basket of 50 companies that “matter most” to hedge funds is about as extended on a daily basis as it’s been over the last two decades. Many of these holdings are semiconductors, megacap tech and communication services, he noted.
GM earnings yesterday stock finished +8%….GM vs. Tesla chart 50day about to go thru 200day to upside.
5. GM vs. Rivian and Lucid Chart
GM vs. RIVN about to break to new highs.
GM vs. LCID
6. Disney Chart Update
DIS showing some life…holding 200-day a couple times…breaking above sideways 3 months.
7. UPS Staircase Down for 3+ Years
See if UPS holds Nov. 2023 lows.
8. Banks Selling Some Commercial Loans at Discount
Business Insider Daniel GeigerLenders are bailing out of commercial real estate as a wave of debt builds Aon Center, an 83-story tower in Chicago, entered special servicing at the beginning of 2023.
Some $2.1 trillion of commercial estate debt is estimated to come due by the end of 2025.
Banks and other lenders could face big losses on those debts.
Recent loan sales show that banks are trying to limit their exposure.
Amerant Bank, a large community bank based in Coral Gables, Florida, recently announced that it had reached a deal to sell a $401 million portfolio of loans tied to a collection of apartment buildings in Houston for $370 million – a roughly 7% discount on the debt’s remaining balance. Amerant’s chief executive, Jerry Plush, described the planned sale on a January 25 earnings call as part of an effort to refocus its business on clients with whom the bank has an ongoing relationship.
Banking and loan experts, however, see deeper motivations behind the decision by the bank and a growing number of other financial institutions that are beginning to unload commercial real estate loans.”I don’t ever like banks having to take a loss,” said Stephen Scouten, a senior research analyst at Piper Sandler who covers Amerant. “Longer term, it’s probably of some benefit.”
Roughly $2.1 trillion of debt connected to commercial real estate assets, including office properties, apartment buildings, hotels, and retail spaces, will come due between now and the end of 2025 in the US, according to the real estate services firm JLL. With higher interest rates sapping commercial property values, JLL estimates that property owners will have to pour about $265 billion into paying down those loan balances in order to refinance. The wave of maturities and the enormous equity shortfalls have raised concerns that a growing number of commercial real estate debts will fall into distress, forcing banks and other lenders to suffer losses.
The recent loan sales suggest that lenders are beginning to take a defensive posture, diminishing their exposure to the commercial property sector and raising cash. “Staring at a problem is not going to make it go away,” said Kevin Aussef, the president of US investment sales at CBRE, who noted that the firm had just been hired by the Canadian bank CIBC to sell a $316 million bundle of US office loans. “At some point in time, you are better off responding to it than waiting.”
Aussef said that, for the time being, banks were seeking to sell off healthier loans at prices close to the face value of the debt and avoid heavily discounted sales that might force them to mark down loans more broadly across their portfolios. “We’re not seeing an avalanche of these lenders coming to the market,” Aussef said. The pace, however, is picking up.
@Charlie Bilello What happened following the 3 previous largest Russell 2000 drawdowns when the S&P 500 was at a record high?
Both indices would rally higher over the next year with the Russell 2000 outperforming and joining the S&P 500 at an all-time high…
April 7, 1999 (-19.2% Russell 2000 Drawdown): S&P 500 gained 14.3% over the next year and Russell 2000 gained 36.5%.
February 13, 1991 (-13.5% Russell 2000 Drawdown): S&P 500 gained 12.1% over the next year and Russell 2000 gained 35.5%.
January 21, 1985 (-13.3% Russell 2000 Drawdown): S&P 500 gained 17.4% over the next year and Russell 2000 gained 18.2%.
But what about the notion that “weak breadth” is a bearish signal for markets, something we heard from pundits throughout 2023?
The data simply doesn’t support that thesis. Historically, stocks have experienced above-average returns following periods of small cap underperformance (“weak breadth”) and below-average returns following periods of small cap outperformance (“strong breadth”). (see video discussion here)
Do you find yourself forgetting your keys? Spacing out on why you walked into a room? Losing your train of thought mid-sentence? If you answered yes to any of these questions and you’re also a couch potato, there is one important strategy that could put you on the path to improved recall.
The secret to a better memory? Moving more. Aerobic exercise provides greater blood flow to your brain, especially to the hippocampus, a region that’s crucial to memory. A 2017 study in 51 healthy men and women, ages 18-35, found that those who had the highest fitness levels had a firmer, more elastic hippocampus and scored the best on memory tests.
BLOOD FLOW AND THE BRAIN
Healthy blood flow is crucial to your brain—and to your whole body. It transports nutrients, including oxygen, to every cell in your body and flushes away toxins. Even though your brain, which weighs about 3 pounds, makes up only 2% of your body’s weight, it uses 20% of the oxygen and blood flow in your body.
Exciting new research in Human Brain Mapping dispels the long-held belief that our brain cells age quickly; rather, it is the blood vessels that feed our neurons that are aging faster. If you want to keep your brain healthy, your mind sharp, and your mental health strong for as long as possible, you need to protect your blood vessels.
If you keep your blood vessels healthy, you may be able to avoid not only memory loss and Alzheimer’s disease, but also a host of mental health issues (see below) as well as physical problems like high blood pressure, heart disease, stroke, and erectile dysfunction, among others. You’ll also have a lot more energy and you’re less likely to be overweight.
BRAIN HEALTH PROBLEMS OF LOW BLOOD FLOW
Anything that damages your blood vessels or impairs blood flow hurts your brain. Brain SPECT imaging studies reveal that low blood flow is related to many behavioral and psychiatric issues. SPECT is a type of brain imaging study that measures the brain’s blood flow and activity. Low blood flow seen on SPECT has been seen with:
In fact, research in Nature Communications shows that low blood flow is the #1 brain imaging predictor that a person will develop Alzheimer’s disease.
11 WAYS EXERCISE PROTECTS MEMORY
Here are some of the many ways physical exercise enhances brain health and protects memory:
Helps increase the size of the hippocampus, the Holy Grail of any memory enhancement program, according to the American Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry and several other studies.
Protects the hippocampus from stress-related hormones, like cortisol, which normally shrinks it. Even leisurely walking has been shown to increase the size of the hippocampus in women, according to findings in Hippocampus.
Stimulates the production of growth factors, such as BDNF (brain-derived neurotrophic factors), which nurture stem cell production.
Stimulates “neurogenesis,” the ability of the brain to generate new neurons
Decreases the formation of beta-amyloid plaque, clumps of protein found in the brains of people with Alzheimer’s disease, according to the Journal of Neuroscience.
Improves cognitive flexibility, as shown in 2015 research in Current Biology.
Improves mood, which is important because research shows depression has been linked to an increased risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease.
Enhances insulin’s ability to lower high blood sugar levels, reducing the risk of diabetes. In some scientific journals, Alzheimer’s has been called “type 3 diabetes.”
Allows for greater detoxification through sweat, which is critical because toxins in any form damage the brain and increase the risk of memory problems and dementia.
Improves the quality of sleep. Some scientific research suggests that sleep disturbances may be a predictor of Alzheimer’s.
Improves immunity. Several studies have found immune system dysfunction in dementia.
WHICH EXERCISES ARE BEST FOR YOUR BRAIN?
Racquet sports are particularly beneficial. A 2016 study in theBritish Journal of Sports Medicine that followed more than 80,000 adults found that those who played tennis, table tennis, squash and other racquet sports had the lowest risk of dying during the nearly decade-long research. Swimming and aerobics are good choices, too. And if you walk, just be sure to keep up the pace to get the most benefits.
MORE WAYS TO BOOST BLOOD FLOW
In addition to physical exercise, there are many other ways to improve your blood flow, including treating high blood pressure, cholesterol, or other vascular problems, and avoiding cigarettes and caffeine, which constrict blood flow to the brain. Here are more easy, beneficial moves:
Hydrate better! Drinking at least 5 glasses of water a day could decrease your risk of hypertension
Drink more green tea
Limit salt intake
Take a good multivitamin/mineral, vitamin D, magnesium and an omega-3 EPA/DHA supplement daily
Support your memory with ginkgo biloba extract
Enjoy an ounce of dark chocolate every day (for the cocoa flavanols)
Eat more beets, green leafy vegetables, berries, pumpkin seeds, and cayenne pepper
Increase your intake of foods high in magnesium, such as avocados, nuts, and seeds
Eat more foods loaded with potassium, such as spinach and sweet potatoes
Limit alcohol, fruit juices, and sodas (including diet sodas)
Sleep 7 to 8 hours a night, and if you have sleep apnea, get it assessed and treated
Try hyperbaric oxygen therapy (HBOT), a simple, non-invasive, painless treatment with minimal side effects that use the power of oxygen to enhance the healing process. Before-and-after SPECT scans of people who have undergone HBOT reveal remarkable improvement in blood flow.
Blood flow is so important, it is the first risk factor in the Amen Clinics Memory Rescue BRIGHT MINDS Program, which identifies and treats the 11 risk factors that can steal your memory and your mind. Preventing and treating these risk factors is the best way to keep your memory sharp for the rest of your life.
We are available for in-clinic brain scanning and appointments, as well as mental telehealth, remote clinical evaluations, and video therapy. Find out more by speaking to a specialist today at 844-987-1117. If all our specialists are busy helping others, you can also schedule a time to talk.
@Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm) Buy the All-Time High: Or BTFATH as some call it — historically, there is a slight performance edge in buying on days the market reached an all-time high.
2. History of a Negative First 5 Days for Small Cap
From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading Negative returns during the Santa Claus Rally and first 5 days of the yr, but a higher Jan? That will likely be ’24 and I was really surprised how rare this combo is historically. The good news is full yr up nearly 20% on avg and higher all three times, Ryan
3. More Small Cap History
@Charlie Bilello What happened following the 3 previous largest Russell 2000 drawdowns when the S&P 500 was at a record high?
Both indices would rally higher over the next year with the Russell 2000 outperforming and joining the S&P 500 at an all-time high…
April 7, 1999 (-19.2% Russell 2000 Drawdown): S&P 500 gained 14.3% over the next year and Russell 2000 gained 36.5%.
February 13, 1991 (-13.5% Russell 2000 Drawdown): S&P 500 gained 12.1% over the next year and Russell 2000 gained 35.5%.
January 21, 1985 (-13.3% Russell 2000 Drawdown): S&P 500 gained 17.4% over the next year and Russell 2000 gained 18.2%.
But what about the notion that “weak breadth” is a bearish signal for markets, something we heard from pundits throughout 2023?
The data simply doesn’t support that thesis. Historically, stocks have experienced above-average returns following periods of small cap underperformance (“weak breadth”) and below-average returns following periods of small cap outperformance (“strong breadth”). (see video discussion here)
Do you find yourself forgetting your keys? Spacing out on why you walked into a room? Losing your train of thought mid-sentence? If you answered yes to any of these questions and you’re also a couch potato, there is one important strategy that could put you on the path to improved recall.
The secret to a better memory? Moving more. Aerobic exercise provides greater blood flow to your brain, especially to the hippocampus, a region that’s crucial to memory. A 2017 study in 51 healthy men and women, ages 18-35, found that those who had the highest fitness levels had a firmer, more elastic hippocampus and scored the best on memory tests.
BLOOD FLOW AND THE BRAIN
Healthy blood flow is crucial to your brain—and to your whole body. It transports nutrients, including oxygen, to every cell in your body and flushes away toxins. Even though your brain, which weighs about 3 pounds, makes up only 2% of your body’s weight, it uses 20% of the oxygen and blood flow in your body.
Exciting new research in Human Brain Mapping dispels the long-held belief that our brain cells age quickly; rather, it is the blood vessels that feed our neurons that are aging faster. If you want to keep your brain healthy, your mind sharp, and your mental health strong for as long as possible, you need to protect your blood vessels.
If you keep your blood vessels healthy, you may be able to avoid not only memory loss and Alzheimer’s disease, but also a host of mental health issues (see below) as well as physical problems like high blood pressure, heart disease, stroke, and erectile dysfunction, among others. You’ll also have a lot more energy and you’re less likely to be overweight.
BRAIN HEALTH PROBLEMS OF LOW BLOOD FLOW
Anything that damages your blood vessels or impairs blood flow hurts your brain. Brain SPECT imaging studies reveal that low blood flow is related to many behavioral and psychiatric issues. SPECT is a type of brain imaging study that measures the brain’s blood flow and activity. Low blood flow seen on SPECT has been seen with:
In fact, research in Nature Communications shows that low blood flow is the #1 brain imaging predictor that a person will develop Alzheimer’s disease.
11 WAYS EXERCISE PROTECTS MEMORY
Here are some of the many ways physical exercise enhances brain health and protects memory:
Helps increase the size of the hippocampus, the Holy Grail of any memory enhancement program, according to the American Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry and several other studies.
Protects the hippocampus from stress-related hormones, like cortisol, which normally shrinks it. Even leisurely walking has been shown to increase the size of the hippocampus in women, according to findings in Hippocampus.
Stimulates the production of growth factors, such as BDNF (brain-derived neurotrophic factors), which nurture stem cell production.
Stimulates “neurogenesis,” the ability of the brain to generate new neurons
Decreases the formation of beta-amyloid plaque, clumps of protein found in the brains of people with Alzheimer’s disease, according to the Journal of Neuroscience.
Improves cognitive flexibility, as shown in 2015 research in Current Biology.
Improves mood, which is important because research shows depression has been linked to an increased risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease.
Enhances insulin’s ability to lower high blood sugar levels, reducing the risk of diabetes. In some scientific journals, Alzheimer’s has been called “type 3 diabetes.”
Allows for greater detoxification through sweat, which is critical because toxins in any form damage the brain and increase the risk of memory problems and dementia.
Improves the quality of sleep. Some scientific research suggests that sleep disturbances may be a predictor of Alzheimer’s.
Improves immunity. Several studies have found immune system dysfunction in dementia.
WHICH EXERCISES ARE BEST FOR YOUR BRAIN?
Racquet sports are particularly beneficial. A 2016 study in theBritish Journal of Sports Medicine that followed more than 80,000 adults found that those who played tennis, table tennis, squash and other racquet sports had the lowest risk of dying during the nearly decade-long research. Swimming and aerobics are good choices, too. And if you walk, just be sure to keep up the pace to get the most benefits.
MORE WAYS TO BOOST BLOOD FLOW
In addition to physical exercise, there are many other ways to improve your blood flow, including treating high blood pressure, cholesterol, or other vascular problems, and avoiding cigarettes and caffeine, which constrict blood flow to the brain. Here are more easy, beneficial moves:
Hydrate better! Drinking at least 5 glasses of water a day could decrease your risk of hypertension
Drink more green tea
Limit salt intake
Take a good multivitamin/mineral, vitamin D, magnesium and an omega-3 EPA/DHA supplement daily
Support your memory with ginkgo biloba extract
Enjoy an ounce of dark chocolate every day (for the cocoa flavanols)
Eat more beets, green leafy vegetables, berries, pumpkin seeds, and cayenne pepper
Increase your intake of foods high in magnesium, such as avocados, nuts, and seeds
Eat more foods loaded with potassium, such as spinach and sweet potatoes
Limit alcohol, fruit juices, and sodas (including diet sodas)
Sleep 7 to 8 hours a night, and if you have sleep apnea, get it assessed and treated
Try hyperbaric oxygen therapy (HBOT), a simple, non-invasive, painless treatment with minimal side effects that use the power of oxygen to enhance the healing process. Before-and-after SPECT scans of people who have undergone HBOT reveal remarkable improvement in blood flow.
Blood flow is so important, it is the first risk factor in the Amen Clinics Memory Rescue BRIGHT MINDS Program, which identifies and treats the 11 risk factors that can steal your memory and your mind. Preventing and treating these risk factors is the best way to keep your memory sharp for the rest of your life.
We are available for in-clinic brain scanning and appointments, as well as mental telehealth, remote clinical evaluations, and video therapy. Find out more by speaking to a specialist today at 844-987-1117. If all our specialists are busy helping others, you can also schedule a time to talk.
4. Chinese Investors Pouring Money Out of Mainland
WSJDesperate Chinese Investors Are Pouring Into the U.S., Japan By Rebecca Feng
The frenzied buying of Japanese and U.S. ETFs is a sign of how tough it will be for Chinese authorities to lift investor sentiment. PHOTO: YING TANG/ZUMA PRESS
Chinese individual investors want to shift their money out of the country—and they are willing to pay a big premium to do so.
The best example of their desperation: Some this week have been buying funds that offer exposure to Japanese stocks at a 20% premium to what those stocks are worth.
An exchange-traded fund launched by China Asset Management Co.traded at a 14% to 20% premium to its indicative net asset value over the first three days of the week.
The ETF became so popular that China AMC halted its trading for an hour on Thursday, a move also taken by another firm. It warned investors about the big difference between the fund’s price and its net value and said investors could suffer heavy losses if they invest blindly. The premium came down to 5% on Thursday.https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/chinese-investors-are-pouring-into-the-u-s-japan-386be98e
Japan ETF vs. China ETF straight up in favor of Japan
5. Equal Weight Index Rolls Back Over vs. Cap Weight
6. History of Fed Lowering Rates at All-Time Highs?
7. Natural Gas is the Largest Source of American Electricity Generation
Barrons-For all of the momentum toward a greener energy system—U.S. electricity generation from solar and wind increased more than threefold from 2012 to 2022, according to the Energy Information Administration—natural-gas power has climbed 38%, to become the largest source of electricity generation in the U.S. Even in California, which has among the most aggressive decarbonization targets in the country, three natural-gas power plants that were originally slated to close in 2020 will instead operate until at least 2026, officials said last year. Others will remain in service even longer.
It’s not just a U.S. phenomenon. India’s government wants to nearly triple electricity production from natural gas by 2030. China, the world’s largest energy consumer, is increasing its use of natural gas as it shifts away from coal. Europe continues to rely on natural gas as it makes its green transition. Natural gas will remain essential, even as oil and coal fade away.
Hustle culture A swathe of fledgling entrepreneurs have taken the plunge and set up their own companies, with review site Yelp counting a record number of new business openings last year. All told, Yelp tallied a total of 762,200 new ventures in 2023, representing a 20% uptick on 2022. The data confirms a similar finding from analysis of governmental filings, which has revealed a pandemic-inspired “entrepreneurship boom“, as an increasing number of Americans take their economic fates into their own hands. Golden handcuffsThe Yelp report categorizes the new businesses by industry, finding a particular boom in the home services sector, with hundreds of new endeavors set up across carpentry (up 54%), masonry and concrete services (up 40%), and contractors (up 33%). Those new companies might be looking to capitalize on the “golden handcuff” phenomenon, as sky-high mortgage rates and property prices leave people investing in their current homes, rather than moving to new ones.Elsewhere, the leisure sector also saw a resurgence, with the number of new hotels and travel services up 28% on last year and restaurant openings up 10%, with major boosts for creperies and hot pot spots, which were up 63% and 53%, respectively. Related reading: Yesterday‘s better-than-expected 3.3% US GDP growth and rising consumer sentiment suggests the US economy is holding up well.
Psychology Today Evan Parks Psy.D. Here are five ways mindfulness helps rewire the brain, giving us better control over how we respond to stress, handle difficult emotions, manage pain, and adapt to change.
1. Mindfulness improves our brain chemistry. Research suggests that regular mindfulness practices help the brain increase levels of GABA, which helps us stay calm; dopamine, the pleasure and reward neurotransmitter; and serotonin, which helps us experience positive emotions.
2. Mindfulness changes our fear and stress response. When we take in sensory information about a possible threat, the amygdala is the first brain structure to process that information. The amygdala evaluates images and sounds; if it detects a threat, it passes on the information to the hippocampus, which activates the body to prepare for a threat. With regular mindfulness practice, the size of the amygdala shrinks. A smaller amygdala is correlated with a reduced fear response, increased calmness, better management of anxiety, and a feeling of well-being.
3. Mindfulness helps us stay connected to the present moment. Falling and staying asleep is often a challenge when we experience stressful periods of life. Our mind races back and forth between our regrets about the past and worries about the future, keeping us awake. During the day, our busy minds distract us from being present with the people we love and the work we need to accomplish. Because of changes in the insula and cingulate cortex, mindfulness practices help harness our ability to shift and focus our attention on our bodily sensations and regulate the emotional responses associated with those physical sensations.
4. Mindfulness facilitates learning and memory. The gray matter of the memory areas of the brain generally decreases with age, impacting memory processes, emotional regulation, and perspective-taking. As a result, our memory suffers as we get older, we become less flexible with change, and we find it difficult to appreciate the perspective of others. Mindfulness has been demonstrated to increase the size of the hippocampus, which leads to improved learning, memory, and stress management.
5. Mindfulness helps with brain healing and pain management. Mindfulness practices greatly enhance neuroplasticity. Recovery from brain injury requires healing damaged areas of the brain and using other areas to recover lost functioning. Mindfulness can improve emotional regulation and mental fatigue and help regulate pain. (Click here to learn more about how mindfulness helps pain management.)
2. Energy vs. QQQ Chart Closes Below 200-Week Moving Average
On a 2-year basis energy still beating tech….but chart breaking down. This chart compares energy etf XLE vs. tech etf QQQ
3. Solar Stock Update…TAN Resumes Downard Trend
$40 print will be break to new lows.
4. Chinese Investors Pouring Money Out of Mainland
WSJDesperate Chinese Investors Are Pouring Into the U.S., Japan By Rebecca Feng
The frenzied buying of Japanese and U.S. ETFs is a sign of how tough it will be for Chinese authorities to lift investor sentiment. PHOTO: YING TANG/ZUMA PRESS
Chinese individual investors want to shift their money out of the country—and they are willing to pay a big premium to do so.
The best example of their desperation: Some this week have been buying funds that offer exposure to Japanese stocks at a 20% premium to what those stocks are worth.
An exchange-traded fund launched by China Asset Management Co.traded at a 14% to 20% premium to its indicative net asset value over the first three days of the week.
The ETF became so popular that China AMC halted its trading for an hour on Thursday, a move also taken by another firm. It warned investors about the big difference between the fund’s price and its net value and said investors could suffer heavy losses if they invest blindly. The premium came down to 5% on Thursday.https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/chinese-investors-are-pouring-into-the-u-s-japan-386be98e
Japan ETF vs. China ETF straight up in favor of Japan
5. Equal Weight Index Rolls Back Over vs. Cap Weight
6. History of Fed Lowering Rates at All-Time Highs?
7. Natural Gas is the Largest Source of American Electricity Generation
Barrons-For all of the momentum toward a greener energy system—U.S. electricity generation from solar and wind increased more than threefold from 2012 to 2022, according to the Energy Information Administration—natural-gas power has climbed 38%, to become the largest source of electricity generation in the U.S. Even in California, which has among the most aggressive decarbonization targets in the country, three natural-gas power plants that were originally slated to close in 2020 will instead operate until at least 2026, officials said last year. Others will remain in service even longer.
It’s not just a U.S. phenomenon. India’s government wants to nearly triple electricity production from natural gas by 2030. China, the world’s largest energy consumer, is increasing its use of natural gas as it shifts away from coal. Europe continues to rely on natural gas as it makes its green transition. Natural gas will remain essential, even as oil and coal fade away.
Hustle culture A swathe of fledgling entrepreneurs have taken the plunge and set up their own companies, with review site Yelp counting a record number of new business openings last year. All told, Yelp tallied a total of 762,200 new ventures in 2023, representing a 20% uptick on 2022. The data confirms a similar finding from analysis of governmental filings, which has revealed a pandemic-inspired “entrepreneurship boom“, as an increasing number of Americans take their economic fates into their own hands. Golden handcuffsThe Yelp report categorizes the new businesses by industry, finding a particular boom in the home services sector, with hundreds of new endeavors set up across carpentry (up 54%), masonry and concrete services (up 40%), and contractors (up 33%). Those new companies might be looking to capitalize on the “golden handcuff” phenomenon, as sky-high mortgage rates and property prices leave people investing in their current homes, rather than moving to new ones.Elsewhere, the leisure sector also saw a resurgence, with the number of new hotels and travel services up 28% on last year and restaurant openings up 10%, with major boosts for creperies and hot pot spots, which were up 63% and 53%, respectively. Related reading: Yesterday‘s better-than-expected 3.3% US GDP growth and rising consumer sentiment suggests the US economy is holding up well.
Psychology Today Evan Parks Psy.D. Here are five ways mindfulness helps rewire the brain, giving us better control over how we respond to stress, handle difficult emotions, manage pain, and adapt to change.
1. Mindfulness improves our brain chemistry. Research suggests that regular mindfulness practices help the brain increase levels of GABA, which helps us stay calm; dopamine, the pleasure and reward neurotransmitter; and serotonin, which helps us experience positive emotions.
2. Mindfulness changes our fear and stress response. When we take in sensory information about a possible threat, the amygdala is the first brain structure to process that information. The amygdala evaluates images and sounds; if it detects a threat, it passes on the information to the hippocampus, which activates the body to prepare for a threat. With regular mindfulness practice, the size of the amygdala shrinks. A smaller amygdala is correlated with a reduced fear response, increased calmness, better management of anxiety, and a feeling of well-being.
3. Mindfulness helps us stay connected to the present moment. Falling and staying asleep is often a challenge when we experience stressful periods of life. Our mind races back and forth between our regrets about the past and worries about the future, keeping us awake. During the day, our busy minds distract us from being present with the people we love and the work we need to accomplish. Because of changes in the insula and cingulate cortex, mindfulness practices help harness our ability to shift and focus our attention on our bodily sensations and regulate the emotional responses associated with those physical sensations.
4. Mindfulness facilitates learning and memory. The gray matter of the memory areas of the brain generally decreases with age, impacting memory processes, emotional regulation, and perspective-taking. As a result, our memory suffers as we get older, we become less flexible with change, and we find it difficult to appreciate the perspective of others. Mindfulness has been demonstrated to increase the size of the hippocampus, which leads to improved learning, memory, and stress management.
5. Mindfulness helps with brain healing and pain management. Mindfulness practices greatly enhance neuroplasticity. Recovery from brain injury requires healing damaged areas of the brain and using other areas to recover lost functioning. Mindfulness can improve emotional regulation and mental fatigue and help regulate pain. (Click here to learn more about how mindfulness helps pain management.)
3. Weed Stocks Rally in 2024…Outperforming Bitcoin.
Why Marijuana Stocks, Cannabis ETFs Are Up Now Cannabis ETFs like the AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF (MSOS) and the Roundhill Cannabis ETF (WEED)jumped as much as 25% this month after a release of documents that support a recommendation by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services to lower the federal classification of cannabis to Schedule III from Schedule I. The recommendation from HHS would make it harder for the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) to reject, thereby opening the door for wider state legalization, as well as the potential for increased capital from investors, investment firms and banks.
From its August 2023 low, the WEED ETF is up 85%. The ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ), which is the first ETF to focus on the global cannabis market, has not had a positive calendar year return since 2017, with its worst year in 2022 as it fell 60%.
Check in on this chart every few months…..50week thru 200week to downside.
5. The Multibillion-Dollar Clean Energy Bet Gone Wrong
Offshore wind turbines are proving too risky for many utilities
By David Uberti Building gigantic turbines in the ocean is more of a challenge than expected for some energy industry players.
U.S. power companies raced to get in on the offshore wind boom a few years ago. Now some are rushing to get out.
Already, utilities have unloaded pieces of a planned New Jersey wind farm and a yet-to-be-built seabed off Massachusetts. Now, “for sale” signs sit on stakes in four developments aimed at electrifying hundreds of thousands of homes in New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Virginia.
The pullback is adding to the turmoil in a new industry at the center of the U.S.’s renewable-energy ambitions. Developers behind projects totaling 8.5 gigawatts of electricity—more than a quarter of President Biden’s 2030 goal—canceled or are expected to cancel state-approved power contracts to propose deals with new terms, according to Intelatus Global Partners. Two projects have been nixed outright.
The retreat by utilities underscores the challenge of building turbines the size of skyscrapers in the ocean, with supply-chain snarls and higher interest rates blowing up project budgets.
CEO Tsai has bought about $151 million worth of Alibaba’s U.S.-traded shares in the fourth quarter, via his Blue Pool Management family investment vehicle, a securities filing confirmed on Tuesday. Ma, who stepped down as the company’s executive chairman in 2019 but remains a major shareholder, bought $50 million worth of Hong Kong-traded stock in the quarter, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. (Both men already hold sizable amounts of Alibaba stock.)
Zerohedge The result, for better or worse, speak for themselves: while Q4 GDP rose by $329 billion to $27.939 trillion, a respectable if made up number, what is much more disturbing is that over the same time period, the US budget deficit rose by more than 50%, or $510 billion. And the cherry on top: the increase in public US debt in the same three month period was a stunning $834 billion, or 154% more than the increase in GDP. In other words, it now takes $1.55 in budget deficit to generate $1 of growth… and it takes over $2.50 in new debt to generate $1 of GDP growth!
The Story Behind the Real Amateur Investors Who Inspired Dumb Money
TIME BY MARIAH ESPADA Dumb Money dramatizes the true story behind working class Redditors turned investors who flipped Wall Street on its head. Currently out in limited theaters and expanding in the coming weeks, director Craig Gillespie’s comedy-drama, written by Lauren Schuker Blum and Rebecca Angelo, weaves together multiple storylines to bring to life the GameStop saga of 2021. That story, which dominated headlines while many were stuck at home during the days of the Omicron variant, has its roots in the practice by mega hedge funds to invest stock in companies like the gaming retailer, with the hopes for a short selling, an investment strategy that looks to profit from their falling stock prices. And those top dogs appear in Dumb Money, in the form of characters played by Nick Offerman, Seth Rogen, and Vincent D’Onofrio.
But the story really got interesting when working class investors banded together on the Reddit Internet forum r/WallStreetBets and short-squeezed the billionaire investors, causing a rapid rise in the stock’s price, thus leading to short sellers losing big. At its peak, GameStop stock traded at $483 per share. With these individual investors making an unprecedented impact on the market, the short sellers were offered several bailouts—leading to criticism that the system was rigged in their favor.
“I think it’s very easy to look around and see how broken, fragmented, and seemingly hopeless things are,” Schuker Blum tells TIME. “But here was an inspiring story of an incredibly diverse and large group of people coming together around an idea.”
And that group of people—represented in the film by characters portrayed by Paul Dano, America Ferrera, and Anthony Ramos, among others—serve as the audience’s stand-in for the every-person. Some depict real-life characters, while others play fictional or composite characters based on the experiences of several investors.
During their research process, the filmmakers sourced a wealth of information from interviews with Reddit investor participants like Harmony Murphy (whom the movie character Harmony Williams was named for, but not directly based on, and who is currently in a pending lawsuit against Robinhood, the app that controversially froze trades on GameStop). They also used as source material Ben Mezrich’s 2021 book The Antisocial Network: The GameStop Short Squeeze and the Ragtag Group of Amateur Traders That Brought Wall Street to Its Knees. Mezrich was one of the executive producers on the film.
Savant Wealth by Chip Kalousek With the retirement of revered University of Alabama football coach Nick Saban set against a backdrop of other significant personnel changes, such as the retirement of Bill Belichick and departure of Pete Carroll from the Seattle Seahawks, the beginning of 2024 has marked substantial shake-ups in the world of football. This slew of transitions signals not only the end of an era, but the start of a new chapter for the sport.
Seasons of change provide great opportunities for reflection and personal growth. In my 12 years of living in Alabama, I’ve had the chance to study Coach Saban and his many successes. His profound impact is evident not only in football, but his principles are often applied in business strategy and leadership. It’s intriguing to draw parallels between Saban’s approach to the game and the intricacies of the investment world. Here are investment lessons inspired by Coach Saban’s prolific career, offering insights derived from his methods for success that transcend the boundaries of sport.
Follow “The Process” Saban’s well-honed philosophy, “The Process,” emphasizes focusing on what one can control in the present moment, and not on a distant, lofty goal, such as a National Championship. For investors, the message is this: don’t obsess over short-term market movements or get distracted by “hot tips.” Instead, follow an investment process that relies on empirical data and research, guided by discipline.
Pay Attention to Detail: Everything Matters Saban spent decades developing his unparalleled eye for detail, studying player metrics, opponent strategies, and game film. In investing, well-informed decision making becomes elevated through meticulous data examination, leaving no stone unturned to make informed decisions. Small details such as taxes, turnover, and transaction costs can have a significant impact on investment outcomes.
Build a Diversified Team Saban’s success was due in part to his ability to recruit a well-rounded and diverse team of players. In investing, this equates to being broadly diversified across assets, market cap, style, and geography for better risk-adjusted returns. Research shows that a diversified portfolio, rather than individual stock picking, tends to outperform the market over the long term.
Surround Yourself with the Right People Coach Saban never failed to credit his carefully curated staff for his team’s success. He understood you are the sum of those with whom you choose to surround yourself. Similarly, successful investors surround themselves with a sort of personal board of directors who will hold them accountable and offer practical and objective advice. This personal board can include professionals (accountants, financial advisors, or attorneys) or informal relationships, such as family and friends.
Have a Plan and Execute It Saban was a master strategist. His clear, well thought-out game plans were key to his success. Investors should similarly have a solid plan and understanding of their personal risk tolerance, goals, and objectives to help create a roadmap for investment success.
A Winning Combination Nick Saban’s principles of being process-focused, detail-oriented, diversified, well supported, and meticulously planned can be a winning combination for financial success. At Savant, this wisdom and foresight are integrated into our evidenced-based investing approach. If you’d like to learn more about how our investment approach helps clients pursue their ideal futures please consider talking with one of our financial advisors.
Congratulations on your retirement, Coach Saban. Roll Tide!
3. Weed Stocks Rally in 2024…Outperforming Bitcoin.
Why Marijuana Stocks, Cannabis ETFs Are Up Now Cannabis ETFs like the AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF (MSOS) and the Roundhill Cannabis ETF (WEED)jumped as much as 25% this month after a release of documents that support a recommendation by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services to lower the federal classification of cannabis to Schedule III from Schedule I. The recommendation from HHS would make it harder for the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) to reject, thereby opening the door for wider state legalization, as well as the potential for increased capital from investors, investment firms and banks.
From its August 2023 low, the WEED ETF is up 85%. The ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ), which is the first ETF to focus on the global cannabis market, has not had a positive calendar year return since 2017, with its worst year in 2022 as it fell 60%.
Check in on this chart every few months…..50week thru 200week to downside.
5. The Multibillion-Dollar Clean Energy Bet Gone Wrong
Offshore wind turbines are proving too risky for many utilities
By David Uberti Building gigantic turbines in the ocean is more of a challenge than expected for some energy industry players.
U.S. power companies raced to get in on the offshore wind boom a few years ago. Now some are rushing to get out.
Already, utilities have unloaded pieces of a planned New Jersey wind farm and a yet-to-be-built seabed off Massachusetts. Now, “for sale” signs sit on stakes in four developments aimed at electrifying hundreds of thousands of homes in New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Virginia.
The pullback is adding to the turmoil in a new industry at the center of the U.S.’s renewable-energy ambitions. Developers behind projects totaling 8.5 gigawatts of electricity—more than a quarter of President Biden’s 2030 goal—canceled or are expected to cancel state-approved power contracts to propose deals with new terms, according to Intelatus Global Partners. Two projects have been nixed outright.
The retreat by utilities underscores the challenge of building turbines the size of skyscrapers in the ocean, with supply-chain snarls and higher interest rates blowing up project budgets.
CEO Tsai has bought about $151 million worth of Alibaba’s U.S.-traded shares in the fourth quarter, via his Blue Pool Management family investment vehicle, a securities filing confirmed on Tuesday. Ma, who stepped down as the company’s executive chairman in 2019 but remains a major shareholder, bought $50 million worth of Hong Kong-traded stock in the quarter, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. (Both men already hold sizable amounts of Alibaba stock.)
Zerohedge The result, for better or worse, speak for themselves: while Q4 GDP rose by $329 billion to $27.939 trillion, a respectable if made up number, what is much more disturbing is that over the same time period, the US budget deficit rose by more than 50%, or $510 billion. And the cherry on top: the increase in public US debt in the same three month period was a stunning $834 billion, or 154% more than the increase in GDP. In other words, it now takes $1.55 in budget deficit to generate $1 of growth… and it takes over $2.50 in new debt to generate $1 of GDP growth!
The Story Behind the Real Amateur Investors Who Inspired Dumb Money
TIME BY MARIAH ESPADA Dumb Money dramatizes the true story behind working class Redditors turned investors who flipped Wall Street on its head. Currently out in limited theaters and expanding in the coming weeks, director Craig Gillespie’s comedy-drama, written by Lauren Schuker Blum and Rebecca Angelo, weaves together multiple storylines to bring to life the GameStop saga of 2021. That story, which dominated headlines while many were stuck at home during the days of the Omicron variant, has its roots in the practice by mega hedge funds to invest stock in companies like the gaming retailer, with the hopes for a short selling, an investment strategy that looks to profit from their falling stock prices. And those top dogs appear in Dumb Money, in the form of characters played by Nick Offerman, Seth Rogen, and Vincent D’Onofrio.
But the story really got interesting when working class investors banded together on the Reddit Internet forum r/WallStreetBets and short-squeezed the billionaire investors, causing a rapid rise in the stock’s price, thus leading to short sellers losing big. At its peak, GameStop stock traded at $483 per share. With these individual investors making an unprecedented impact on the market, the short sellers were offered several bailouts—leading to criticism that the system was rigged in their favor.
“I think it’s very easy to look around and see how broken, fragmented, and seemingly hopeless things are,” Schuker Blum tells TIME. “But here was an inspiring story of an incredibly diverse and large group of people coming together around an idea.”
And that group of people—represented in the film by characters portrayed by Paul Dano, America Ferrera, and Anthony Ramos, among others—serve as the audience’s stand-in for the every-person. Some depict real-life characters, while others play fictional or composite characters based on the experiences of several investors.
During their research process, the filmmakers sourced a wealth of information from interviews with Reddit investor participants like Harmony Murphy (whom the movie character Harmony Williams was named for, but not directly based on, and who is currently in a pending lawsuit against Robinhood, the app that controversially froze trades on GameStop). They also used as source material Ben Mezrich’s 2021 book The Antisocial Network: The GameStop Short Squeeze and the Ragtag Group of Amateur Traders That Brought Wall Street to Its Knees. Mezrich was one of the executive producers on the film.
Savant Wealth by Chip Kalousek With the retirement of revered University of Alabama football coach Nick Saban set against a backdrop of other significant personnel changes, such as the retirement of Bill Belichick and departure of Pete Carroll from the Seattle Seahawks, the beginning of 2024 has marked substantial shake-ups in the world of football. This slew of transitions signals not only the end of an era, but the start of a new chapter for the sport.
Seasons of change provide great opportunities for reflection and personal growth. In my 12 years of living in Alabama, I’ve had the chance to study Coach Saban and his many successes. His profound impact is evident not only in football, but his principles are often applied in business strategy and leadership. It’s intriguing to draw parallels between Saban’s approach to the game and the intricacies of the investment world. Here are investment lessons inspired by Coach Saban’s prolific career, offering insights derived from his methods for success that transcend the boundaries of sport.
Follow “The Process” Saban’s well-honed philosophy, “The Process,” emphasizes focusing on what one can control in the present moment, and not on a distant, lofty goal, such as a National Championship. For investors, the message is this: don’t obsess over short-term market movements or get distracted by “hot tips.” Instead, follow an investment process that relies on empirical data and research, guided by discipline.
Pay Attention to Detail: Everything Matters Saban spent decades developing his unparalleled eye for detail, studying player metrics, opponent strategies, and game film. In investing, well-informed decision making becomes elevated through meticulous data examination, leaving no stone unturned to make informed decisions. Small details such as taxes, turnover, and transaction costs can have a significant impact on investment outcomes.
Build a Diversified Team Saban’s success was due in part to his ability to recruit a well-rounded and diverse team of players. In investing, this equates to being broadly diversified across assets, market cap, style, and geography for better risk-adjusted returns. Research shows that a diversified portfolio, rather than individual stock picking, tends to outperform the market over the long term.
Surround Yourself with the Right People Coach Saban never failed to credit his carefully curated staff for his team’s success. He understood you are the sum of those with whom you choose to surround yourself. Similarly, successful investors surround themselves with a sort of personal board of directors who will hold them accountable and offer practical and objective advice. This personal board can include professionals (accountants, financial advisors, or attorneys) or informal relationships, such as family and friends.
Have a Plan and Execute It Saban was a master strategist. His clear, well thought-out game plans were key to his success. Investors should similarly have a solid plan and understanding of their personal risk tolerance, goals, and objectives to help create a roadmap for investment success.
A Winning Combination Nick Saban’s principles of being process-focused, detail-oriented, diversified, well supported, and meticulously planned can be a winning combination for financial success. At Savant, this wisdom and foresight are integrated into our evidenced-based investing approach. If you’d like to learn more about how our investment approach helps clients pursue their ideal futures please consider talking with one of our financial advisors.
Congratulations on your retirement, Coach Saban. Roll Tide!
5. Mega Cap ETF No Weakness Yet…..Trading 20% Above 200-Week Moving Average
6. 2023 Worst Year in a Decade for VC-Backed Acquisitions.
Pitchbook Blog VCs and market participants have been predicting an uptick in M&A activity for at least six quarters, but their forecasting powers keep failing them.
2023 turned out to be the worst year in a decade for acquisitions of VC-backed companies, according to the Q4 2023 PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor. Companies purchased nearly 700 startups at a combined value of $26.7 billion, about a quarter of the value sold during the 2021 peak.
8. 2024 -Americans Will Spend $32B Less than 2023….$79B Less than 2022 on Gas.
From Stephen Kroculick Jefferies According to GasBuddy projections — which were very accurate for 2023 — US gas prices will average $3.38 a gallon in 2024. This would be a significant improvement from 2023’s average of $3.51 a gallon, and an even bigger drop from 2022’s average of $3.95. Gauging the impact of this, GasBuddy expects Americans will spend about $32 billion less on fuel than in 2023 and $79 billion less than in 2022. “Next year should represent a continued march towards what most Americans would consider normal prices at the pump,” GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis told CNN in a phone interview
5. Mega Cap ETF No Weakness Yet…..Trading 20% Above 200-Week Moving Average
6. 2023 Worst Year in a Decade for VC-Backed Acquisitions.
Pitchbook Blog VCs and market participants have been predicting an uptick in M&A activity for at least six quarters, but their forecasting powers keep failing them.
2023 turned out to be the worst year in a decade for acquisitions of VC-backed companies, according to the Q4 2023 PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor. Companies purchased nearly 700 startups at a combined value of $26.7 billion, about a quarter of the value sold during the 2021 peak.
8. 2024 -Americans Will Spend $32B Less than 2023….$79B Less than 2022 on Gas.
From Stephen Kroculick Jefferies According to GasBuddy projections — which were very accurate for 2023 — US gas prices will average $3.38 a gallon in 2024. This would be a significant improvement from 2023’s average of $3.51 a gallon, and an even bigger drop from 2022’s average of $3.95. Gauging the impact of this, GasBuddy expects Americans will spend about $32 billion less on fuel than in 2023 and $79 billion less than in 2022. “Next year should represent a continued march towards what most Americans would consider normal prices at the pump,” GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis told CNN in a phone interview
4. China Weighs Stock Market Rescue Package Backed by $278 Billion
BABA Holding 2022 Lows
5. Everybody is Working and Gasoline Dropped from $5 to $3
6. Demographics is Destiny…Japan 8 Million Abandoned Homes
Business Insider-Why Japan has more than 8 million cheap abandoned houses that people are renovating into dream homes
More than 8.5 million abandoned homes in rural Japan are creating a “ghost town” problem.
A push into the city and population decline are two reasons these homes sit empty.
Locals see them as a burden, while foreigners view them as an opportunity to own property cheaply.
Japan has millions of abandoned rural houses for sale.
The glut delights foreigners who’ve been able tobuy one for as little as $23,000. But underlying the surplus are meaningful shifts in Japan’s culture. Demographic and economic patterns — including a shrinking population and migration from the countryside to cities — are combining to create a “ghost town” problem in Japan.
There aremore than 8.5 million akiya, or abandoned homes, in rural Japan, according to the country’s 2018 Housing and Land Survey, its most recent on record. By some counts, there are many more. The Nomura Research Institute, or NRI, pegsthe number closer to 11 million. The institute predicts akiya could exceed 30% of homes in Japan by 2033.
For foreigners looking for a change of scenery, akiya are an opportunity to be a homeowner abroad on the cheap. Some foreigners have even turned to akiya to enrich themselves by launchingshort-term-rental businesses.
“The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of the blessings. The inherent blessing of socialism is the equal sharing of miseries.” –Winston Churchill
Socialism is a terrific idea in theory. Who would not want everyone in society to have a house with a white fence, the job of their dreams, 2.5 kids and a dog? But plain vanilla socialism has failed every single time it has been implemented, and it turned each of those countries into a totalitarian state: Cuba, the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, Venezuela — the list goes on.
In a socialist state, success is pushed down, and failure is elevated — this is how equality of outcome is created. In the Soviet Union’s version of plain vanilla socialism, we were taught to hate the wealthy and empathize with the poor. This empathy was easy for us because everyone (with the exception of the tiny ruling-class bureaucrats) was poor.
Capitalism does not offer the sexy, utopian promise of socialism, but it works in practice. Capitalism has lifted billions out of poverty; but it is now under threat, ironically, from those who have benefited the most from it — academics. Universities have been among the biggest beneficiaries of the wealth created by capitalism.
As I am writing this, I am reminded of Margaret Thatcher’s “Socialism is a great idea until you run out of other people’s money.”
Universities used to be spartan gyms for our minds, places where opposing ideas collided and gave birth to new ones and where our thinking got challenged through healthy debate. This growth came with healthy pain, the type that accompanies and stimulates intellectual growth.
Today, many universities have been turned into day spas, where for $300,000 a student’s mind will be pampered and coddled. Now they are “safe places” from opposing ideas, which are considered as microaggressions. This is where free speech goes to die, unless it calls for the genocidal extermination of Jews; then you can speak your mind.
College administrations are afraid to upset their spa customers (sorry, I meant students). They are not focused on challenging their thinking (the point of education) and producing the brightest but are instead fixated on making students feel better about themselves and giving them their money’s worth.
I was not surprised to learn that socialism is slowly poisoning our universities, but I was surprised by its new avenue — the socialization of grades. Professors at a local law school are required to grade to a B+. When professors submit their grades, if the average is below a B+, the system will reject it. The university is afraid of making students feel bad about a low, albeit deserved, grade and wants every student to have a high grade-point average upon graduation.
However, what is inflation for one group is deflation for another. This practice punishes hardworking students, as their work may result in a lower grade than they deserve, compared to classmates who are preoccupied with attending “TikTok University” during lectures.
Universities are on a quixotic mission to right a wrong — they are fighting against grade inequality. This is what socializing (equalizing) outcomes looks like. In fact, this seemingly innocent practice of equally high grades has the familiar ring of a Karl Marx slogan that I heard endlessly in the Soviet Union: “From each according to his abilities, to each according to his needs.” Law students need a B+, so they get a B+.
With each graduating class, our capitalistic (equal-opportunity) society is being slowly diluted by equal-outcome dogma (socialism).
Grade inflation is happening in virtually every college across the country, but colleges should not receive all the blame for this, as unfortunately it starts in high schools, which are suffering through super grade inflation — grades have gone up while reading and math skills have fallen (with minorities experiencing the largest grade inflation).
Bad (deserved) grades are a necessary part of education. How else would you know that you had not learned something as well as you thought you did? I failed English as a freshman in college. I had been in the US for two years. My English was objectively horrible. I’m glad I didn’t receive special (woke) treatment for being “fresh off the boat.” I studied a lot harder, retook the class and passed it my senior year. If I had not, my English would not have improved and I would not have written several books or received national awards for writing.
The beauty of the Declaration of Independence is that you are guaranteed the “pursuit of happiness” — you are given an equal chance to pursue it. You are not guaranteed the outcome, just the opportunity. There is enormous value, and yes even happiness and meaning in the pursuit of happiness. This pursuit will often take you down a harder road, but it will result in the best version of you and bring a sense of pride and accomplishment.
1. Tesla -15% Year to Date
2. 2023 Extreme Daily S&P Moves Fall in Normal Range
VIX at $12 but 2023 normal range -Nasdaq Dorsey Wright
4. China Weighs Stock Market Rescue Package Backed by $278 Billion
BABA Holding 2022 Lows
5. Everybody is Working and Gasoline Dropped from $5 to $3
6. Demographics is Destiny…Japan 8 Million Abandoned Homes
Business Insider-Why Japan has more than 8 million cheap abandoned houses that people are renovating into dream homes
More than 8.5 million abandoned homes in rural Japan are creating a “ghost town” problem.
A push into the city and population decline are two reasons these homes sit empty.
Locals see them as a burden, while foreigners view them as an opportunity to own property cheaply.
Japan has millions of abandoned rural houses for sale.
The glut delights foreigners who’ve been able tobuy one for as little as $23,000. But underlying the surplus are meaningful shifts in Japan’s culture. Demographic and economic patterns — including a shrinking population and migration from the countryside to cities — are combining to create a “ghost town” problem in Japan.
There aremore than 8.5 million akiya, or abandoned homes, in rural Japan, according to the country’s 2018 Housing and Land Survey, its most recent on record. By some counts, there are many more. The Nomura Research Institute, or NRI, pegsthe number closer to 11 million. The institute predicts akiya could exceed 30% of homes in Japan by 2033.
For foreigners looking for a change of scenery, akiya are an opportunity to be a homeowner abroad on the cheap. Some foreigners have even turned to akiya to enrich themselves by launchingshort-term-rental businesses.
“The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of the blessings. The inherent blessing of socialism is the equal sharing of miseries.” –Winston Churchill
Socialism is a terrific idea in theory. Who would not want everyone in society to have a house with a white fence, the job of their dreams, 2.5 kids and a dog? But plain vanilla socialism has failed every single time it has been implemented, and it turned each of those countries into a totalitarian state: Cuba, the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, Venezuela — the list goes on.
In a socialist state, success is pushed down, and failure is elevated — this is how equality of outcome is created. In the Soviet Union’s version of plain vanilla socialism, we were taught to hate the wealthy and empathize with the poor. This empathy was easy for us because everyone (with the exception of the tiny ruling-class bureaucrats) was poor.
Capitalism does not offer the sexy, utopian promise of socialism, but it works in practice. Capitalism has lifted billions out of poverty; but it is now under threat, ironically, from those who have benefited the most from it — academics. Universities have been among the biggest beneficiaries of the wealth created by capitalism.
As I am writing this, I am reminded of Margaret Thatcher’s “Socialism is a great idea until you run out of other people’s money.”
Universities used to be spartan gyms for our minds, places where opposing ideas collided and gave birth to new ones and where our thinking got challenged through healthy debate. This growth came with healthy pain, the type that accompanies and stimulates intellectual growth.
Today, many universities have been turned into day spas, where for $300,000 a student’s mind will be pampered and coddled. Now they are “safe places” from opposing ideas, which are considered as microaggressions. This is where free speech goes to die, unless it calls for the genocidal extermination of Jews; then you can speak your mind.
College administrations are afraid to upset their spa customers (sorry, I meant students). They are not focused on challenging their thinking (the point of education) and producing the brightest but are instead fixated on making students feel better about themselves and giving them their money’s worth.
I was not surprised to learn that socialism is slowly poisoning our universities, but I was surprised by its new avenue — the socialization of grades. Professors at a local law school are required to grade to a B+. When professors submit their grades, if the average is below a B+, the system will reject it. The university is afraid of making students feel bad about a low, albeit deserved, grade and wants every student to have a high grade-point average upon graduation.
However, what is inflation for one group is deflation for another. This practice punishes hardworking students, as their work may result in a lower grade than they deserve, compared to classmates who are preoccupied with attending “TikTok University” during lectures.
Universities are on a quixotic mission to right a wrong — they are fighting against grade inequality. This is what socializing (equalizing) outcomes looks like. In fact, this seemingly innocent practice of equally high grades has the familiar ring of a Karl Marx slogan that I heard endlessly in the Soviet Union: “From each according to his abilities, to each according to his needs.” Law students need a B+, so they get a B+.
With each graduating class, our capitalistic (equal-opportunity) society is being slowly diluted by equal-outcome dogma (socialism).
Grade inflation is happening in virtually every college across the country, but colleges should not receive all the blame for this, as unfortunately it starts in high schools, which are suffering through super grade inflation — grades have gone up while reading and math skills have fallen (with minorities experiencing the largest grade inflation).
Bad (deserved) grades are a necessary part of education. How else would you know that you had not learned something as well as you thought you did? I failed English as a freshman in college. I had been in the US for two years. My English was objectively horrible. I’m glad I didn’t receive special (woke) treatment for being “fresh off the boat.” I studied a lot harder, retook the class and passed it my senior year. If I had not, my English would not have improved and I would not have written several books or received national awards for writing.
The beauty of the Declaration of Independence is that you are guaranteed the “pursuit of happiness” — you are given an equal chance to pursue it. You are not guaranteed the outcome, just the opportunity. There is enormous value, and yes even happiness and meaning in the pursuit of happiness. This pursuit will often take you down a harder road, but it will result in the best version of you and bring a sense of pride and accomplishment.
3. Chinese Large Cap Looks Like It Will Break Below Covid Lows.
4. China Weighs Stock Market Rescue Package Backed by $278 Billion
China considers offshore money for stabilization fund: sources
Some policy measures could come as soon as this week
By Bloomberg News
Chinese authorities are considering a package of measures to stabilize the slumping stock market, according to people familiar with the matter, after earlier attempts to restore investor confidence fell short and prompted Premier Li Qiang to call for “forceful” steps.
Policymakers are seeking to mobilize about 2 trillion yuan ($278 billion), mainly from the offshore accounts of Chinese state-owned enterprises, as part of a stabilization fund to buy shares onshore through the Hong Kong exchange link, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter. They have also earmarked at least 300 billion yuan of local funds to invest in onshore shares through China Securities Finance Corp. or Central Huijin Investment Ltd., the people said.
10. Russia’s elite paratroopers and marines are refusing orders to launch ‘human wave attacks,’ Ukraine official says-Business Insider.
Marines march past an honor-guard soldier during a Naval parade rehearsal in St. Petersburg, Russia, in 2022. Nathan Rennolds
Elite Russian troops are refusing to launch “human-wave attacks,” a Ukrainian official said.
Nataliya Humenyuk said marines and paratroopers are concerned over huge losses in the assaults.
She said former prisoners and poorly trained reservists typically carry out costly frontal assaults.
Russian marines and paratroopers are refusing to launch certain types of assaults due to concerns over the huge losses other troops are suffering, a Ukrainian official said, the Kyiv Post reported.
Nataliya Humenyuk, a press secretary for the Armed Forces of Ukraine’s Joint Command South, said that the soldiers considered “themselves ‘elite troops'” and did not “want to go into frontal assaults” that former felons and reservists typically carry out, the outlet reported.
Throughout the Russian invasion, Russia has become increasingly reliant on high-risk frontal assaults involving waves of attacks that probe Ukrainian positions and seize small portions of territory at the cost of substantial casualties.
Humenyuk cited Russian attacks on Krynky in the Kherson Oblast in southern Ukraine, saying that Russian troops assaulting Ukrainian marine positions there were being hit with losses of more than 50%.
“At present in our sector the number of units of the type ‘Shtorm-Z’ [low-grade Russian units made of up older reservists and former felons, often committed to carry out human wave attacks] is falling and we are seeing more naval infantry and paratroopers,” Humenyuk said.
“But they consider themselves ‘elite troops,’ and they don’t want to go into frontal assaults like that,” she added.
One of Russia’s newly formed paratrooper units, the 104th Guards Airborne Division, appeared to be hit particularly hard in its combat debut in the Kherson region late last year, the UK Ministry of Defence said in an update on the conflict in December.
1. S&P New Highs….7th Longest Run Ever Between New Highs.
2. Earnings Recessions Set to End.
Nasdaq Dorsey Wright Earnings estimates see dip in Q4 2023 before positive growth throughout 2024 The last time we showed you the chart below, Q4 earnings growth was expected to be positive.
Now, though, it’s currently on track for earnings to dip almost 2% YoY (orange bar).
3. What Outperforms in the Years Following Rate Hikes?
Blackrock Despite their “risk asset” label, all stocks are not created equal. With inflation and economic uncertainty still high, we retain our focus on quality and lower-beta equities. Both have outperformed higher-risk counterparts in the years following the end of rate hikes, as shown below. While higher valuations, inflation and rates may mute overall stock market returns relative to the prior decade, we see attractive stock selection opportunities in 2024 amid a Fed pause and outlook for broadening market breadth.
4. China and Hong Kong Stocks Have Erased $6 Trillion Since 2021 Peak.
by Michael Batnick There was more speculation leading up to the launch of the Bitcoin ETF than anything that I’ve ever seen. People were debating how much money these ETFs would take in and what impact the inflows would have on the underlying price.
The nine new spot Bitcoin ETFs that came to market have collectively taken in just under $4 billion. (H/t Eric Balchunas on all this data)
IBIT (iShares) and FBTC (Fidelity) took 4 and 5 days respectively to get to $1 billion in assets. The only other ETFs to get there faster were BITO, the BTC futures ETF, which took 2 days, and GLD, which took 3 days.
The volume that these things are doing is arguably more impressive than the assets. Balchunas notes that:“For context, as a group the Nine’s $1.2b in daily volume puts them in Top 1% of all ETFs (w/ $GBTC as well). But even if you single them out, $FBTC & $IBIT each in Top 2%. Keep in mind the avg age of ETFs in Top 2% is prob like 14yrs old. So pretty wild to get there in a week.”
So the launch of these ETFs was a resounding success. Hard stop. The price of the underlying is more of a mixed bag. The ETFs are down ~10% since they started trading. But Bitcoin itself is up almost 40% over the last three months as anticipation of the launch grew stronger. It shouldn’t be terribly surprising that it didn’t go up in a straight line after the announcement of something that had been well-telegraphed. The market, every market, is pretty good about pricing stuff in. This is not to say I called this, I didn’t, but I’m not surprised either. https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2024/01/21/how-big-can-bitcoin-get/
6. Number of Ships Thru Suez Canal Cut in Half.
Torsten Slok Apollo Normally, 200 ships travel through the Suez Canal from South to North over a week, but that number has recently declined to 100, see the first chart.For the Panama Canal, Northbound traffic has also declined 50%, from 90 ships per week to 45, see the second chart. The third chart shows that the price of transporting a container from Shanghai to Rotterdam has tripled. The bottom line is that higher transportation costs are putting upward pressure on goods inflation.
9. Empty Nesters Own Twice As Many Large Homes As Millennials With Kids-Redfin
What is Truflation Truflation aggregates, calculates and publishes the first daily, unbiased, real-market inflation and economic data.
We also make our data available on-chain via the Chainlink infrastructure making them directly compatible with various DeFi products and Web3 applications.
Our mission is to offer the most objective, decentralized, and current economic and financial information alternative in the form of on-chain price indexes to enable a new generation of blockchain products. https://whitepaper.truflation.com/background/what-is-truflation
@Charlie Bilello Truflation, which attempts to calculate a real-time inflation rate in the US, is suggesting actual inflation is over a percentage point lower at 1.85%. A year ago this inflation gauge was above 6%.
10. Americans are Actually Pretty Happy with Their Finances.
1. A Record 91% of Fund Managers Expect Interest Rates to Go Lower
Marketwatch-As of this month, a record 91% of fund managers surveyed expect short-term interest rates will drop over the next 12 months, up from 87% in Dec. 2023. Those figures mark the highest levels of bullish sentiment on interest rates since BofA’s surveys first started two decades ago in 2001. By Louis Goss
2. U.S. Treasury Issuance is Set to Double in 2024 to $2 Trillion
Dave Lutz at Jones Trading Coming flood of US Treasury issuance unsettles some investors after blazing rally – While expectations for Fed easing may be driving bond prices now, some believe U.S. Treasury issuance, expected to nearly double to $2 trillion in 2024, could be a counterweight. Yields – which move inversely to bond prices – would have to rise from current levels to entice demand for the flood of new debt, they say. Such concerns helped drive Treasury prices to 16-year lows when they intensified in October. In a survey of investors by BofA Global Research, 23% said a bet on lower Treasury prices was their “highest conviction” trade for 2024, while 21% said the same for bets on higher Treasury prices.
3. 10-Year Treasury Yield Moved Back Above 4%
4. Earnings Reports Everyone Talking AI
From Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank
5. More Presidential Elections Seasonality Data.
Nasdaq Dorsey Wright
Based on average returns, the fourth year of a president’s term has historically been the second lowest for SPX and RUT. The best time for these domestic benchmarks has been the third year (which rang true in 2023).
During the fourth year, SPX and RUT have typically softened around the 60-trading day window (late March/early April) before reaccelerating into year-end around the 220th trading day (early November).
6. Since March 2022, U.S. developers have signed 57 supply agreements representing about 73 million metric tons of LNG annually
WSJ Russia’s invasion of Ukraine kicked U.S. exports into overdrive. Since March 2022, U.S. developers have signed 57 supply agreements representing about 73 million metric tons of LNG annually, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights—more than four times the number of contracts they signed between 2020 and 2021.
7. Uranium Spiking
8. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) (GBTC) Sees Outflows of $579m
Emily Graffeo-(Bloomberg) — Investors have pulled over a half of a billion dollars from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust during its first days of trading as an ETF.
The fund, which won US Securities and Exchange Commission approval to convert to an ETF from a trust last week, has seen outflows totaling about $579 million, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It’s a stark difference from the other nine spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have pulled in a total of nearly $1.4 billion.
“Thanks to the ETF conversion this is the first time we’ve had clear sight into flows of GBTC,” said James Seyffart, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, who noted that investors may be profit-taking.
The flow data is a more complete look at how the ETF fared in the wake of SEC approval. While over $2.3 billion of GBTC shares changed hands its first day, the outflows now indicate that a portion of that volume was due to selling. “Grayscale has dominated the market for regulated Bitcoin investing for over a decade. Now that other issuers have come to market, we are naturally seeing some rotation into these new products,” said Zach Pandl, Grayscale’s managing director of research. “Total net inflows into Bitcoin investment products are what matters for prices, not substitution from one product to another.”
The outflows from Grayscale’s ETF aren’t entirely unexpected. Bloomberg Intelligence forecasted that the fund will drain over $1 billion over the coming weeks.
“Lots of this capital will find its way back into other Bitcoin exposures,” Seyffart said.
Some investors are fleeing to cheaper spot Bitcoin ETFs. With an expense ratio of 1.5%, GBTC is the most expensive US ETF that invests directly in Bitcoin. The second-most expensive fund, the VanEck Bitcoin Trust, charges 0.25%.
Empty-nest baby boomers own 28% of the nation’s large homes, while millennials with kids own just 14%.
Empty nesters take up a lot of large homes because affordability was better when they were young, and there’s no financial incentive to sell now: Most boomers own their homes free and clear, and most who have a mortgage have a low rate.
The landscape has transformed over the last decade: 10 years ago, young families were just as likely as empty nesters to own large homes.
Empty nesters take up at least 20% of large homes everywhere in the U.S.
Millennials with kids take up less than 18% of large homes no matter where they live. They own the biggest share in the Midwest and the smallest share in coastal California.
Our brain uses automatic thinking to streamline responses to stimuli.
Sometimes automatic thinking can be maladaptive, requiring an override.
We can correct for cognitive biases by working with our mental camera.
The predictive text function on my iPhone lately has been making an error. It reads the word “so” and assumes that I want to write “Sophie.” I’ve corrected it many times, but it sees “so” and stubbornly assumes that I am writing to or about my friend Sophie.
Our brain offers its own “predictive text” function when it makes assumptions based on our past experiences. Sometimes, this works very well. When we encounter a hot stove burner, for example, we don’t have to write a pros and cons list about whether we should place our hand there. Our brain quickly computes that a hot stove burner is dangerous and should not be touched. Thank you, automatic thinking!
However, just as with our iPhones, there are times when our brain’s attempts to shortcut do not serve us well. This post explores how certain types of automatic thinking can increase distress surrounding chronic illness.
Attentional Bias
When we exhibit attentional bias, we pay selective attention to specific information, failing to place that information in a broader context (Savioni & Triberti, 2020). Many people living with chronic illness experience a hyper-vigilance around symptoms. We are very attuned to our bodies, noticing every ache and pain. This makes sense, as our brain believes — and rightly so — that we need this information to keep ourselves safe. Attentional bias comes into play when our brain is so focused on identifying symptoms that it ignores or barely registers health.
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Take a moment to focus on a part of your body that is uncomfortable. What’s it like to zoom the camera of your mind’s eye on only that sensation? If your right hip hurts, for example, focus only on the pain you are experiencing in that area. Now zoom the camera out to include your whole body. Does your knee hurt? Your foot? What about the other side of your body? You’re still acknowledging that your right hip has pain, but your brain is now placing the pain in the larger context of your whole body. Pain is part of your experience when you zoom the camera out, not the whole of your experience. When you correct for attentional bias, you receive a different picture of what is happening.
Interpretation Bias
Interpretation bias involves what we do with the information our brain has noticed (Savioni & Triberti, 2020). In chronic illness, there can be a tendency to interpret signals from the body as illness-related. There also can be a tendency to catastrophize.
As with attentional bias, this makes perfect sense. The brain knows that chronic illness symptoms often mean danger. Unfortunately, for many of us who live with chronic illness, the warning it provides sounds less like, “Just flagging these sensations for you. Do you think they are illness-related?” and more like, “RED ALERT! RED ALERT! THINGS ARE BAD AND THEY’RE ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE!”
Just as we did in addressing attentional bias, let’s pull the camera back. Observe the panic from a place outside of your big feelings. Speak gently to the panicked part of yourself, saying, “Boy, you’re really afraid. And it’s understandable. But you don’t have enough information to justify this high level of panic. Can you take a few breaths so we can evaluate what’s happening from a calmer place?” Treat yourself with respect and compassion. Once you’re able to calm yourself down, evaluate the symptoms you’re experiencing with a clearer head. Congratulations — you’re learning how to correct for interpretation bias.
Recall Bias
Recall bias involves focusing on particularly painful moments in our past experiences (Savioni & Triberti, 2020). We may remember vividly the harrowing moments in our illness journey, without also remembering the times when our health was relatively stable. Especially when we experience a bodily sensation that causes concern, our minds immediately may flash to images of our darkest times.
By now, you know the drill: We’re going to do some camera work with our mind’s eye. Instead of staying with the image of your scariest moment, we’re going to play the film forward. Let’s imagine that experiencing symptoms causes you to remember yourself lying in a hospital bed. Time didn’t stop when you experienced that moment, so you are going to call to mind images of you rehabilitating and coming home from the hospital. Unfreeze the camera and look at the entire memory rather than only its worst parts.
Why Correcting Automatic Thoughts Matters
Correcting automatic thoughts about illness grounds us in a more balanced reality. Keeping our stress levels in check is mentally and physically healthy, benefitting our quality of life. Putting in the work to identify and correct automatic thoughts helps us to rewire our brains, updating problematic thought patterns to more adaptive ones.
1. Japan Stocks Beating China Stocks Since 2004 on Annualized Basis
2. Nvidia Forward P/E Lower than Semiconductor Index?
WSJ Nvidia currently trades about 26 times projected per-share earnings—near its lowest range in at least five years and well below its average of 40 times over that period, according to FactSet. Stacy Rasgon of Bernstein noted last week that Nvidia was also recently trading at a discount to the peer PHLX Semiconductor Index “for the first time in almost a decade, and is now (amazingly) the cheapest AI play, and likely already pricing in some prospect for an ‘air pocket’ scenario.”
3. Record Spread in P/E Ratios Between S&P vs. International Makes New Highs. Reversion to Mean for International has not Worked
Torsten Slok Apollo Comparing the P/E ratio of the S&P500 with the P/E ratio of the rest of the world shows a record difference, see chart below. In other words, US equities have never been more expensive relative to international equities
4. Crypto Trading Volume Post New ETFs
The Daily Shot Brief–Cryptocurrency: Trading volumes surged for US spot-bitcoin ETFs on Thursday.
Lumber is the number one material for homebuilding
6. If Americans are Working, Then They are Spending
Irrelevant Investor Blog Total spending from BofA customers was $4.1 trillion in 2023, 4% higher than it was in 2022, and 35% higher than it was in 2019, the full year before the pandemic.
8. Ecuador Conflict…Murder Rate Rise Leading into Current Drug War
Zerohedge Blog The following chart tries to capture a sense of where Ecuador sits within the context of its Latin American neighbors.
Venezuela’s homicide rate was the highest of the region in 2022 at 40.4 people killed per 100,000 inhabitants – that’s even with a fall of 20 percent since the 2019 figure, when it had been a rate of 50.6 per 100,000 people.
As indicated here, many of the countries in Latin America have seen decreases between 2019 and 2022, with Ecuador as an outlier for its 288% increase from 6.9 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants in 2019 up to 26.7 deaths per 100,000 in 2022.
By Ashleigh Jackson A new study has identified the region with the unhealthiest population in the United States.
Forbes Advisor conducted the analysis and ranked each state based on several factors, including rates of drug abuse, unhealthy lifestyle habits, and chronic disease.
The CDC notes that these illnesses – such as heart disease, cancer, and diabetes – are the nation’s leading causes of death and disability.
As for the unhealthiest state in America, West Virginia claims the No. 1 spot. The Mountain State, considered ground-zero for America’s opioid crisis, stands out with the highest drug overdose death rate in the U.S., according to the Forbes Advisor analysis. Lately, the use of fentanyl and the so-called “zombie drug” xylazine has fueled the state’s epidemic, NewsNation reported.
West Virginia also has the highest percentage of adults who smoke (21%), the highest percentage of adults who are obese (41%), and the second shortest life expectancy nationwide (73.9 years).
Mississippi, deemed the second unhealthiest state, has the shortest life expectancy at 73.63 years, the study found. The Magnolia State faces elevated rates of chronic diseases, including the highest cancer mortality rate in the country (17.37 deaths per 100,000 state residents).
The data also shows that Mississippi has higher rates of diabetes and hypertension, with 43.9% of adults in the state diagnosed with high blood pressure and 13.7% diagnosed with diabetes.
Aside from West Virginia and Mississippi, six other southern states are among the top 10 unhealthiest:
@Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm)Bullish Consensus: The aptly named Consensus Inc conducts weekly surveys of futures market newsletters/brokerage reports and aggregates the percentage that is bullish. At this point their stock index series is the most bullish since 2018.
6. China Sold 5 Times as Many Cars to Russia Last Year Compared to 2022
WSJ While China has become acknowledged as a world leader in electric vehicles, traditional gas-powered autos were the main driver of the increase, with demand surging especially in Russia. Chinese carmakers seized the void left in the country by the departure of Western carmakers following the war in Ukraine, selling at least five times as many vehicles there last year than the 160,000 it sold in 2022, according to the China Passenger Car Association. By
The governors of New York and California are proposing new laws and funding to address retail theft in 2024.
Both governors, who represent the country’s largest Democratic strongholds, want stiffer penalties for retail crime offenses and increased police funding.
The announcements come as voters from both sides of the aisle point to crime as one of their biggest concerns ahead of the 2024 election.
The governors of New York and California announced sweeping plans to crack down on retail crime this week, as trade associations and police departments lobby for government action to curb theft.
The plans include new legislation designed to increase the penalties for retail crime offenses and more funding for police departments and district attorney’s offices to help them tackle theft.
Both Govs. Kathy Hochul of New York and Gavin Newsom of California, who represent the country’s largest Democratic strongholds, made preventing retail theft a top priority this year as voters from both sides of the aisle point to crime as one of their biggest concerns ahead of the 2024 election. The sheer fact that major “tough on crime” platforms are coming from Democratic governors of progressive states also threatens to upend decades of partisan political fault lines. In the modern era, Republicans have traditionally fought to stiffen criminal penalties, while Democrats have sought to address deeper causes of crime, like poverty, inequality and urban unemployment.
But not anymore. Since 2022, at least nine states — including six in 2023 — passed laws to impose harsher penalties for organized retail crime offenses, and New York and California could join that list. Retailers and trade associations around the country have worked to get the bills written and past the finish line.
It’s tough to determine whether theft offenses are up nationally, as it’s a crime that often goes unreported and undetected. It’s also unclear how effective the proposed legislation will be.
Experts previously told CNBC that laws that increase penalties for retail crime offenses may not actually reduce theft offenses, and could disproportionately harm marginalized groups. Similar strategies implemented to address the drug trade have done little to reduce the use or availability of illegal narcotics. Similar to low-level drug dealers, many serial thieves face mental illness, poverty or drug addiction, law enforcement agents previously told CNBC.
Hochul in her State of the State address Tuesday said she is planning to introduce bills that would create criminal penalties for online marketplaces and third-party sellers that contribute to the sale of stolen goods. She also aims to work with the legislature to strengthen penalties for those who assault retail employees.
In addition, Hochul plans to set up two new task forces dedicated to tackling theft – one for building cases against organized retail theft rings and another that addresses so-called smash-and-grab robberies.
As part of the initiatives, Hochul called for expanded funding for state police departments and district attorney’s offices to better equip them to tackle retail theft and other property crimes like burglary. She also wants to establish a tax credit for business owners who implement store security measures to help them offset those costs.
“Across our nation and our state, retail theft has surged, creating fear among customers and workers. Thieves brazenly tear items off shelves and menace employees. Owners go broke replacing broken windows and stolen goods, driving many out of business,” Hochul said in her address.
“These attacks are nothing less than a breakdown in the social order. I say: no more. The chaos must end.”
Newsom said on Wednesday that California will invest $1.1 billion over the next four years to address “safety and security” – $373.5 million of which will be dedicated to combating organized retail theft, according to his office.
In his state budget address, Newsom said 52 sheriff’s and police departments have already received upward of $250 million in new grants to combat retail theft. He added district attorney’s offices are receiving assistance to advance prosecution efforts.
“We mean business in this space,” Newsom said.
Newsom this week also called for new legislation that would address organized retail crime. He wants to target in particular people who are accused of repeatedly stealing from the same stores and “professional thieves” who resell stolen goods.
The proposals include new penalties that target people who engage in retail theft, including by increasing felony penalties and prison time, and bolstering existing laws so police can arrest theft suspects even if they didn’t witness the crime as it was happening.
Newsom is also calling for changes to the state penal code that would allow police to aggregate theft incidents within a given time period so it’s easier to charge repeat offenders with grand theft and other felonies. Currently, someone has to steal more than $950 in goods in a single incident to be charged with grand theft in California.
Farnam Street Blog A different take on what makes us feel so busy, stressed, and anxious.
As a rule, the larger your surface area, the more energy you have to expend maintaining it. Of course, when most of us think of surface area, we think of the area of a rectangle or how much grass we have to mow. But there is a surface area of life, and most of us never realize how much it consumes.
If you have one house, you have a relatively small surface area to maintain (depending on the age and size of the house, of course). If you buy another one, your surface area expands. But it doesn’t expand linearly – it expands slightly above that. It’s all the same work plus more.
Friends are another type of surface area. You have a finite amount of time to spend with friends before you die. The more friends you have, the less time you can spend with each one individually.
Money is another form of surface area. The more money you have, the more you have to keep track of different types of assets and investments.
When your surface area expands too much, you hire people to help you scale. Assistants, property managers, family offices, etc. They’re scaling you – but they’re also scaling the surface area of responsibility. This, of course, only masks the rapidly expanding surface area by abstracting it.
Beliefs are another type of surface area.
The thing about surface area is that the more you have, the more you have to defend and maintain. The larger your surface area, the more you are burdened with mentally and physically.
If you think in terms of surface area, it’s easy to see why we are so anxious, stressed, and constantly behind.
We feel like we need more time, but what we’re craving is more focus. What we need is a smaller surface area.
Your surface area becomes part of your identity. She’s the ‘busy person’ with her hand in every project. He’s the guy with four houses.
Competition can drive expansion. Most people want a bigger house to compete with someone else who has a nicer house. We are animals, after all. On a group level, this causes great benefits. On an individual level, it can cause unhappiness.
Most of the really happy people I know have a relatively small surface area. I know billionaires with two houses. Most of my close friends only have 4-5 close friends – everyone else is a friend in the loose sense of the word. Most of the productive people I know at work are focused on one or two things, not 5.
The way to maximize your enjoyment in life is to keep your surface area small. It’s a lot of work but if the happiest people I know are any indication, it’s a lot less work to keep it small than to maintain it when it’s large. https://fs.blog
Torsten Slok Apollo The market cap of the Magnificent Seven is now four times the market cap of the entire Russell 2000, see the first chart below.
And the market cap of the Magnificent Seven is the same size as the market cap of the stock markets in the UK, Canada, and China combined, see the second chart below. Microsoft alone is the size of the entire stock market in Canada.
3. Hedge Funds are Least Long Banks in 5 Years.
Dave Lutz Jones Trading And Hedge Funds are the least long Bank stocks they’ve been in AT LEAST 5 years according to Goldman
4. Same with Energy Stocks.
The Daily Shot Brief Energy: Hedge funds remain very cautious on energy shares.
It’s easy to let shame write the story of the last year. You think back on the last twelve months of meals (and the sheer amount of sugar you consumed in December) and decide: This year, I’ll eat healthy. You think about your lack of productivity during the workday and resolve: This year, I’ll use my phone less. You reflect on the important moments you’ve missed with your family and tell yourself: This year, I’ll work fewer hours.
They’re all great aspirations. In fact, they’re all great examples of learning from the past. But living to avoid shame or regret stops short of pursuing a flourishing life.
Regret and shame often arise because we have acted in way out of step with who we aspire to be. As a result, shame and regret can simultaneously reveal what we desire and who we desire to be.
“I’ll eat healthy.” A little digging reveals you want to steward your health well and want to be someone who chooses what’s better instead of what’s easy. “I’ll use my phone less.” Really, you want to make your highest contribution and become a person who has the grit to stick it out when it’s hard. “I’ll work fewer hours.” You want to spend more time fully present with your family and become someone who lives an integrated life.
The distinctions might seem insignificant, but they’re not. Desire is the great mover of the human heart. Fear, regret, and shame might get us started, but they don’t nurture the sustained effort, flexibility, and transformation we need to stay the course. They drive us to operate from a place of scarcity instead of abundance.
Spend enough time with the past to let it teach you. But let your desire shape what you decide to dare for the coming year.
Trap 2: Dreaming Instead of Strategizing
We begin by noticing what we want. But dreaming without acting can cripple us. Not simply because we fail to make progress but because we set ourselves up to fall prey to the limiting belief, “I’ll never really change.” When we dream without acting, we’re more likely to stop dreaming in the future.
Your dreams need to push you to act. But there’s a bridge between dreaming and acting.
Simply put, you need to turn your dreams into goals. Good goals follow the SMARTER framework: They are specific, measurable, actionable, risky, timebound, exciting, and relevant. Goals drive us to act. They move us to change. As we progress, our confidence grows. And when we achieve our goals, we become more likely to believe change is possible.
Do you see the positive feedback loop? Setting good goals empowers achievement. Achievement changes you. As a result, you become convinced you can achieve bigger goals, trusting yourself to rise to the challenge.
Trap 3: Doing Too Much
Reinvention is alluring, isn’t it? “New year, new me.” Who doesn’t want to leave their bad habits and painful experiences behind, accumulate all their favorite qualities, and wake up the person they’ve always wanted to be?
We can change. We do change all the time. But change in the right direction almost always takes effort and time. Both are finite resources. We need to guard against too much.
We don’t want to live in our comfort zone. But we also don’t want to cross from our discomfort zone into our delusional zone. We don’t want to create a plan out of step with reality. We need to consider the real constraints of our time and energy.
That’s why we recommend you set eight goals for the entire year, focusing on just two to three goals per quarter. This limitation focuses your energy and prevents you from becoming overwhelmed. A handful of changes that stick will better serve you than a dozen simultaneous changes you give up after one week.
Constraints can feel confining. But constraints are your friend. When you give up reinvention, you enable true growth. And this growth will linger with you lifelong.
As you think about your future, take note of your desire. Set goals that point the way. And pursue growth rather than reinvention.
Welcome to a new year. It’s full of possibility. What will you make of it?
@Charlie Bilello The top three sectors in 2022 (Energy, Utilities, and Consumer Staples) were the bottom three in 2023 while the bottom three sectors in 2022 (Tech, Communications Services, and Consumer Discretionary) were the top three performers in 2023.
3. First Crypto ETF Could Be Approved this Week.
A dozen or so companies have applied to the SEC to offer spot Bitcoin ETFs. Competiton may be fierce.
VIX spent almost all of 2022 above 200-day……..All of 2023 below 200day…
5. Amazon has Gone the Longest Among the Mag 7 Without New Highs.
Amazon has gone the longest among the so-called Magnificent Seven without posting a record, in contrast to Apple, Microsoft Corp., and Nvidia, all of which set new highs last year. The seven largest stocks in the S&P 500 Index by market value — a group that also includes Google parent Alphabet Inc., Tesla Inc. and Facebook owner Meta Platforms Inc., have faltered in January, after driving the market’s strength last year. Amazon’s 4.4% drop is among the steepest of the group.
9. Record one-third of Japan’s unmarried adults under 50 have never dated
The Japan Times More than one-third of unmarried adults in their 20s to 40s have never been in a relationship and one-fourth have no intention of ever getting married, a recent survey found.
At 34.1%, the ratio of single men and women who have never had a romantic relationship was at a record high since Recruit Holdings Co., a staffing service group, began conducting surveys on people’s views on marriage in 2017.
The figure of 25.6% for people not seeking marriage nearly matches the finding in last year’s gender equality survey by the Japanese government, which has been struggling to deal with the country’s low birthrate and labor shortage. But Recruit said the number was notably up from 2021 when it stood at 21.1%.
The latest survey was conducted in September and released this month. It covered 1,200 single adults who have never been married. Among the respondents in their 20s, 19.4% of women and 23.7% of men said having a romantic relationship is a waste of time and money. The percentage was lower among older male respondents, but it was notably higher among female respondents in their 30s at 23.6%, rising sharply from 14.6% in the previous survey in 2021.
Among men of all age groups who do not want to marry, the top reason, given by 42.5%, was the financial strain of married life. As for women, 40.5% said they do not want to compromise their freedom and independence.While 46.1% of all respondents said they want to marry eventually, the number has been on the downtrend, falling from 55.4% in 2017 and 52.6% in 2021.
Among the respondents in their 20s, 44.3% of females and 34.6% of males said they would only date someone for the purpose of finding a marriage partner.
Fear that they won’t be as professionally successful as they’d like.
Fear that they won’t do an effective and honorable job of contributing to their families.
Fear that they’ll face health challenges and old age — including memory loss.
Let’s talk about that last fear. Over the past 12 months, I’ve reviewed dozens of scientific studies from researchers trying to determine how memory works, how to stave off cognitive decline, and what types of habits might help.
As we wrap up the year, it’s a good time to take a look back at what we’ve found.
Stay extremely busy (especially in retirement).
Writing in the peer-reviewed Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, researchers reviewed two big troves of data on literally millions of Chinese workers, along with data on their performance on various cognitive tests and memory assessments:
First, they examined a group that retired early, thanks to a government pension program, and Second, they examined a similar group that wasn’t eligible for the program, and that therefore kept working later in life.
The data was striking. In short, the new pension program led to “led to significant adverse effects on cognitive functioning.”
As Plamen Nikolov of Binghamton University told me in an interview, he and his co-authors found that “if you rest, you rust … Retiring and doing nothing, not using your brain because you don’t work anymore, leads to other [unintended] consequences.”
Enjoy the right kinds of games, part 1.
Professors in the departments of psychiatry, neurology, and medicine at Columbia and Duke universities recruited 107 volunteers with an average age of 71 and asked them to do crossword puzzles, or to play computer video games over a period of many weeks.
The results, as published in the journal NEJM Evidence, were that over a period of 78 weeks, participants in the crossword puzzle cohort did much better in terms of (lack of) memory loss than the ones in the video game cohort.
Sure enough, in a test that had to do with classifying birds and then remembering them, they found the ones who were active bird watchers had better-developed memories that enabled them to recall more accurately.
Read for pleasure.
Researchers in Illinois partnered with a library to recruit two groups of adults, and divided them into two groups:
Half were loaned iPads with a pre-selected list of books that were considered likely to suck readers in. Half were loaned iPads with games like word puzzles.
As the study authors summarized: “The results were incontrovertible: in comparison to the puzzle group, the group that read books for eight weeks showed significant improvements to working memory and episodic memory. In other words, the study demonstrated that regular, engaged reading strengthened older adults’ memory skills.”
Get enough sleep.
You know this, so I’ll keep this one short. But, writing in the journal Trends in Neurosciences, authors from Chronobiology and Sleep Institute at the University of Pennsylvania synthesized decades of research on what happens to our brains when we accumulate a sleep debt.
In short, three things for our purposes:
First, when we accumulate a sleep debt, we lose some of the subjective ability to judge how that lack of sleep affects us. Second, even though we don’t realize it, objective tests show that we continue to have “deficits … in vigilance and episodic memory” even after “2-3 nights of recovery sleep.” Key: The deficits persist even if we feel “less tired” after recovery sleep. Finally, and perhaps most alarmingly, studies suggest that this persistent sleep loss — even when we try to catch up on it — can lead to “heightened susceptibility to neurodegenerative disorders, including Alzheimer’s disease … and Parkinson’s disease (PD).”
Don’t be afraid to take naps.
Writing in the journal Sleep Health, researchers from University College, London, and Uruguay’s University of the Republic looked at data from adults aged 40 to 69, “and found a causal link between habitual napping and larger total brain volume,” according to an official statement.
The result? After looking at data associated with 378,932 people from the study, they concluded that the habit was associated with less brain shrinkage over time — the equivalent of between 2.6 to 6.5 years of aging.
Wear a sleep mask at night.
This was a long study with a simple takeaway. Writing in the monthly peer-reviewed journal Sleep, a research team spanning universities in the U.S., the U.K., and Italy studied 122 human subjects. They determined that those who wore sleep masks at night had better episodic memory and alertness.
Improve your lighting.
This one was simple, too. Researchers at Michigan State University studied whether lab rats’ memories were affected by the quality of light around them — specifically bright lights like a sunny day, or dimmer, fluorescent lights like in a stereotypical office.
You can probably guess the results: rats in dim lights had about 30 percent less brainpower and were more likely to “perfor[m] poorly on a spatial task they had trained on previously.”
Writing in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, they said they determined that those who recorded and watched the videos had a 50 percent better memory performance when asked to recall events six months earlier.
Walk backward.
I’d love to meet the scientist who came up with the theory on this one, but in short, researchers in London tested whether people could trigger memories by walking backward. Sure enough, it worked — at least often enough to be published in the journal Cognition.
“We have named this a ‘mnemonic time-travel effect,'” said one of the lead researchers.
There are many more, and I’ll look forward what what we’ll learn in 2024.
1. Trend Following Traders at Close to Record Net Long.
At the same time, the HSBC strategists say, sentiment and positioning is now very stretched. Some examples include the strong rise in equity long positions from the trend-following CTAs, as well as close to record high net longs in U.S. equity futures of asset managers. By Steve Goldstein Marketwatch.
2. Popular Energy ETF USO -18% from Highs…Laggard Sector 2023
50-day approaching 200-day to downside.
3. How Many Investors Would Get this Trivia Question Right? USO Still Beating QQQ on 2-Year Basis by Wide Margin
4. Best Performing U.S. ETF 4th Quarter 2023 ARKK +32%
Long-Term Chart still way below highs.
5. FANG+ -5% From Highs…..Zuckenberg Sold $428m of Stock at End of 2023
6. Investor Stock Allocation.
BLACKROCK
7. S&P Pure Growth…We Showed this Chart Multiple Times Last Year.
8. Bridgewater’s Flagship Macro Fund Lost 7.6% Last Year-Bloomberg
The fund had been up 7.5% through October before bonds jumped
The firm’s long-only All Weather fund climbed 10.6% last year
By Katherine BurtonBridgewater Associates’s flagship hedge fund lost 7.6% last year, with all of the drop coming in the last two months of 2023, according to people familiar with its performance.
The losses for the world’s biggest hedge fund corresponded to the biggest two-month gain in global bonds since at least 1990 and a roughly 14% gain in US shares.
The Pure Alpha II fund was up 7.5% through October before dropping about 14% in the following two months.
The firm’s long-only All Weather fund returned 10.6% last year, one of the people said. A Bridgewater spokesperson declined to comment.This marked the second-straight instance that Bridgewater’s flagship fund gave up gains at year-end. Pure Alpha II tumbled in October and November 2022 after having been up 22%. It ended that year up 9.4%.
9. Does running cause arthritis? Mounting evidence suggests the answer is no.
Harvard Health Blog By Robert H. Shmerling, MD, Senior Faculty Editor, Harvard Health Publishing; Editorial Advisory Board Member, Harvard Health Publishing
What is the relationship between running and arthritis?
Mounting evidence suggests that that running does not cause osteoarthritis, or any other joint disease.
These are just a few of the published medical studies on the subject. Overall, research suggests that running is an unlikely cause of arthritis — and might even be protective.
Why is it hard to study running and arthritis?
Osteoarthritis takes many years to develop. Convincing research would require a long time, perhaps a decade or more.
It’s impossible to perform an ideal study. The most powerful type of research study is a double-blind, randomized, controlled trial. Participants in these studies are assigned to a treatment group (perhaps taking a new drug) or a control group (often taking a placebo). Double-blind means neither researchers nor participants know which people are in the treatment group and which people are getting a placebo. When the treatment being studied is running, there’s no way to conduct this kind of trial.
Beware the confounders. A confounder is a factor or variable you can’t account for in a study. There may be important differences between people who run and those who don’t that have nothing to do with running. For example, runners may follow a healthier diet, maintain a healthier weight, or smoke less than nonrunners. They may differ with respect to how their joints are aligned, the strength of their ligaments, or genes that direct development of the musculoskeletal system. These factors could affect the risk of arthritis and make study results hard to interpret clearly. In fact, they may explain why some studies find that running is protective.
The effect of running may vary between people. For example, it’s possible, though not proven, that people with obesity who run regularly are at increased risk of arthritis due to the stress of excess weight on the joints.
The bottom line
Trends in recent research suggest that running does not wear out your joints. That should be reassuring for those of us who enjoy running. And if you don’t like to run, that’s fine: try to find forms of exercise that you enjoy more. Just don’t base your decision — or excuse — for not running on the idea that it will ruin your joints.
Psychology Today Learn more about dopamine, serotonin, oxytocin, and endorphins. Tchiki Davis, Ph.D.
KEY POINTS
Even a small amount of a hormone can have profound effects on body functions.
The sp-called “happiness hormones”—dopamine, serotonin, oxytocin, and endorphins—are essential for well-being.
You may increase levels of these hormones with simple lifestyle changes.
Before talking about happiness hormones, it is important to understand what hormones are and how they are produced.
The endocrine system works together with the nervous system to influence many aspects of human behavior. Hormones are chemicals produced by different glands in your body. They are chemical messengers and travel through the bloodstream to tissues or organs. Hormones work slowly and over time, impacting processes including:
Hormones are powerful chemicals that can lead to big changes in our bodies, which means that even a small amount of a hormone can have profound effects on body functions, either in a positive or negative way.
When you do things that make you feel good, such as connecting with a friend or eating ice cream, your brain releases what scientists call “happy hormones.” These hormones got their nickname because of the positive feelings they produce.
These hormones include:
Dopamine, which helps us feel pleasure and is involved in the brain’s reward system.
Serotonin, which helps us boost our mood and regulate our sleep.
Oxytocin, which is produced when we bond with others and is often called “the love hormone.”
Endorphins, which are nicknamed the brain’s natural pain reliever.
These feel-good hormones promote happiness, pleasure, and positive emotions. The cool thing about them is that you have a say in when they are released. Whether you have a good laugh with your friend or do some exercise, your brain is releasing these feel-good hormones.
How to Boost Happiness Hormones
Dopamine
Eat well. Dopamine is created from tyrosine, an amino acid. Tyrosine-rich foods may boost dopamine levels in your brain and even improve memory. Some foods high in tyrosine include meat, dairy, legumes, soy, and eggs.
Sleep. Sleep deprivation has many serious side effects and can even impact dopamine receptors. Getting enough high-quality sleep keeps your dopamine levels balanced (Korshunov, 2017), which has the potential to increase positive feelings.
Meditate. Studies show that mediation has positive effects on dopamine. Specifically, in a study with meditation teachers, dopamine levels increased by 64 percent after meditating for only one hour (Kjaer et al., 2002).
Listen to music. Music is a great addition to alone time or social activities. Listening to music increases brain activity in areas that are rich in dopamine receptors (Koelsch, 2014). Also, the brain releases dopamine when the emotional state is at its highest level (Salimpoor et al., 2011). So go and listen to your favorite song.
Serotonin
Exercise. Serotonin levels significantly increase after doing any workout exercises, such as biking, dancing, or weightlifting. Research clearly shows the antidepressant and anxiolytic effects between mood and exercise (Young, 2007).
Get some light. When you spend at least 15 minutes outside every day, your serotonin levels significantly increase (Sansone & Sansone, 2013).
Eat well. Tryptophan, an amino acid, increases brain serotonin and can be an effective antidepressant for mild depression. One food containing more tryptophan than other proteins is milk, so consuming milk derivates, such as yogurt or kefir, may increase your serotonin levels (Young, 2007).
Oxytocin
Show affection. As per its reputation as “the love hormone,” physical intimacy boosts this hormone. You can hug, cuddle, kiss, or hold hands to increase oxytocin production (Uvnas et al., 2015).
Connect. Your oxytocin levels increase when you talk to your loved ones or even think about them. You can also give compliments to them or do small random acts of kindness, which can not only make their days better but can make yours better, too (Uvnas et al., 2015).
Share. In wild chimpanzees, food-sharing increases oxytocin levels regardless of whether they were close before or not (Wittig et al., 2014). So why not cook with your friend? Cooking is a great way to bond over something delicious and a fun way to potentially increase oxytocin levels.
Endorphins
Eat dark chocolate. If you’re a fan of dark chocolate, you should know that eating a piece can stimulate the release of endorphins (Nehlig, 2013).
Laugh. Who doesn’t like a good laugh? Laughing is a good way to connect with others and destress. You can watch your favorite comedy show, go to a stand-up comedy jam, or call a friend to catch up. All these activities boost the body’s endorphins and also play a role in social bonding (Dunbar et al., 2012).
Be active. Although moderate-intensity exercise is best for boosting endorphins, it’s not the only type of activity that has this potential. You can dance at home or go on a short hike, anything that keeps you active (Tarr et al., 2015).
The happiness hormones—dopamine, serotonin, oxytocin, and endorphins—are essential for your well-being. You may increase the levels of these hormones without any medication by making simple changes in your lifestyle, such as exercise, diet, and meditation. In the end, these things can make a big impact.
Everybody wants what feels good. Everyone wants to live a carefree, happy and easy life, to fall in love and have amazing sex and relationships, to look perfect and make money, and be popular and well-respected and admired and a total baller to the point that people part like the Red Sea when you walk into the room.
Everyone would like that—it’s easy to like that.
If I ask you, “What do you want out of life?” and you say something like, “I want to be happy and have a great family and a job I like,” it’s so ubiquitous it doesn’t even mean anything.
A more interesting question—a question that perhaps you’ve never considered before—is what pain do you want in your life? What are you willing to struggle for? Because that seems to be a greater determinant of how our lives turn out.
What pain do you want in your life? What are you willing to struggle for?
Everybody wants to have an amazing job and financial independence—but not everyone wants to suffer through 60-hour work weeks, long commutes, and obnoxious paperwork, to navigate arbitrary corporate hierarchies and the blasé confines of an infinite cubicle hell. People want to be rich without the risk, without the sacrifice, without the delayed gratification necessary to accumulate wealth.1
Everybody wants to have great sex and an awesome relationship—but not everyone is willing to go through the tough conversations, the awkward silences, the hurt feelings, and the emotional psychodrama to get there.
They view pain as an objectively negative thing to be avoided at all costs, whereas reality is much more nuanced. As I cover extensively in my Resilience Course in the Mark Manson Premium Subscription, we are all capable of—and I’d argue responsible for—ascribing meaning to our pain, and this can actually give our life purpose.
But most people don’t realize this. And so they settle. They settle and wonder “What if?” for years and years until the question morphs from “What if?” into “Was that it?” And when the lawyers go home and the alimony check is in the mail they say, “What was that for?” If not for their lowered standards and expectations 20 years prior, then what for?
Happiness requires struggle. The positive is the side effect of handling the negative. You can only avoid negative experiences for so long before they come roaring back to life.2
At the core of all human behavior, our needs are more or less similar. Positive experience is easy to handle. It’s negative experience that we all, by definition, struggle with. Therefore, what we get out of life is not determined by the good feelings we desire, but by what bad feelings we’re willing and able to sustain to get us to those good feelings.
What we get out of life is not determined by the good feelings we desire, but by what bad feelings we’re willing and able to sustain to get us to those good feelings
People want an amazing physique. But you don’t end up with one unless you legitimately appreciate the pain and physical stress that comes with living inside a gym for hour upon hour,3 unless you love calculating and calibrating the food you eat, planning your life out in tiny plate-sized portions.4
People want to start their own business or become financially independent. But you don’t end up a successful entrepreneur unless you find a way to appreciate the risk, the uncertainty, the repeated failures, and work insane hours on something you have no idea whether or not it will be successful.
People want a partner, a spouse. But you don’t end up attracting someone amazing without appreciating the emotional turbulence that comes with weathering rejections, building the sexual tension that never gets released, and staring blankly at a phone that never rings. It’s part of the game of love. You can’t win if you don’t play.
What determines your success isn’t “What do you want to enjoy?” The question is, “What pain do you want to sustain?” The quality of your life is not determined by the quality of your positive experiences, but the quality of your negative experiences. And to get good at dealing with negative experiences is to get good at dealing with life.
To get good at dealing with negative experiences is to get good at dealing with life.
There’s a lot of crappy advice out there that says, “You’ve just got to want it enough!”
Everybody wants something. And everybody wants something enough. They just aren’t aware of what it is they want, or rather, what they want “enough.”
Because if you want the benefits of something in life, you have to also want the costs. If you want the beach body, you have to want the sweat, the soreness, the early mornings, and the hunger pangs. If you want the yacht, you have to also want the late nights, the risky business moves, and the possibility of pissing off one person or ten thousand.
If you find yourself wanting something month after month, year after year, yet nothing happens and you never come any closer to it, then maybe what you actually want is a fantasy, an idealization, an image, a false promise. Maybe what you want isn’t what you want—you just enjoy wanting. Maybe you don’t actually want it at all.
Sometimes I ask people, “How do you choose to suffer?” These people tilt their heads and look at me like I have twelve noses.5
But I ask because that tells me far more about you than your desires and fantasies. Because you have to choose something. You can’t have a pain-free life. It can’t all be roses and unicorns.
And ultimately that’s the hard question that matters. Pleasure is an easy question. And pretty much all of us have similar answers. The more interesting question is the pain.
What is the pain that you want to sustain?
That answer will actually get you somewhere. It’s the question that can change your life. It’s what makes me, me and you, you. It’s what defines and separates us, and ultimately brings us together.
For most of my adolescence and young adulthood, I fantasized about being a musician—a rock star, in particular. Any badass guitar song I heard, I would always close my eyes and envision myself up onstage playing it to the screams of the crowd, people absolutely losing their minds to my sweet finger-noodling.
This fantasy could keep me occupied for hours on end. The fantasizing continued through college, even after I dropped out of music school and stopped playing seriously.
But even then it was never a question of if I’d ever be up playing in front of screaming crowds, but when. I was biding my time before I could invest the proper amount of time and effort into getting out there and making it work. First, I needed to finish school. Then, I needed to make money. Then, I needed to find the time. Then… nothing.
Despite fantasizing about this for over half of my life, the reality never came. And it took me a long time and a lot of negative experiences to finally figure out why: I didn’t actually want it.
I was in love with the result—the image of me onstage, people cheering, me rocking out, pouring my heart into what I’m playing—but I wasn’t in love with the process. And because of that, I failed at it. Repeatedly. Hell, I didn’t even try hard enough to fail at it. I hardly tried at all.
The daily drudgery of practicing, the logistics of finding a group and rehearsing, the pain of finding gigs and actually getting people to show up and give a shit. The broken strings, the blown tube amp, hauling 40 pounds of gear to and from rehearsals with no car.
It’s a mountain of a dream and a mile-high climb to the top. And what took me a long time to discover was that I didn’t like to climb much. I just liked to imagine the top.
Our culture would tell me that I’ve somehow failed myself, that I’m a quitter or a loser. Self-help would say that I either wasn’t courageous enough, determined enough or I didn’t believe in myself enough.6 The entrepreneurial/start-up crowd would tell me that I chickened out on my dream and gave in to my conventional social conditioning.7 I’d be told to do affirmations8 or join a mastermind group or manifest, or something.
But the truth is far less interesting than that: I thought I wanted something, but it turns out I didn’t. End of story.
I wanted the reward and not the struggle. I wanted the result and not the process. I was in love not with the fight, but only the victory.
Who you are is defined by the values you are willing to struggle for. People who enjoy the struggles of a gym are the ones who get in good shape.9 People who enjoy long work weeks and the politics of the corporate ladder are the ones who move up it.10 People who enjoy the stresses and uncertainty of the starving artist life are ultimately the ones who live it and make it.11
This is not a call for willpower or “grit.”12 This is not another admonition of “no pain, no gain.”13
This is the most simple and basic component of life: our struggles determine our successes. So, friend, choose your struggles wisely.
2. American Households are Close to Record Levels of Equity Ownership
Marketwatch Barbara Kollmeyer That percentage is down from a record of 40.5% in the fourth quarter of 2021, but still well above any other period prior to the current business cycle, he says.
Modular construction, which has roots going back a century, could be poised to gain in popularity as new investors fund the concept.
Many modular home builders are small and regional, but Berkshire Hathaway’s Clayton Homes is among the national homebuilder companies in the market.
The concept appeals to homebuyers and startups focused on sustainable and affordable housing, but it remains very much on the margins of the real estate market in the U.S., representing less than 4% of inventory.
A century ago, a first-time homebuyer might begin their search in a catalog for a kit-built home from Sears and others. In today’s real estate market, the idea rarely registers in house hunting. But with affordability stretched to an extreme and more buyers thinking about sustainability, the modular home — the kit home’s descendent — could be poised for the spotlight.
In the least, U.S. consumers looking to build an efficient and sustainable home should consider going modular. Green construction experts generally agree that modular construction generates less waste and causes less disruption to plants and animals on building sites. And instead of thousands of pieces of lumber, nails, and roofing material that you’d have received with those century-ago kits, modular homes today come in fewer but far larger pieces — assembled in a manufacturer’s facilities, then shipped to the home site, where they’re assembled together. In fact, the modules that make up a modular home can be the size of whole rooms. Typically, it is only the home’s foundation that is actually built on-site.
Modular construction has also attracted interest from affordable housing advocates with mortgage rates, though now on the decline, having reached as high as 8% this year and home prices up in almost every major metro market. The first of up to 2,000 single-family modular homes are being assembled in Chicago’s Southside and will be available for about a $1,000 down payment thanks to a partnership between city and state governments and area non-profits. A smaller affordable modular home project is planned for the Maryland suburbs outside Washington, D.C. Modular dwellings have also been used to combat homelessness in the U.S., Canada, and elsewhere. The issue was raised this week in the op-ed section of the New York Times. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/22/in-tough-real-estate-market-a-century-old-home-idea-could-come-back.html
9. How to Read an Annual Report
10. Mark Cuban shares the No. 1 jargon word he hates the most: ‘You sound stupid … trying to sound smart’
It may be tempting to try slipping in a more complicated word when you want to impress someone, like your boss or a potential employer. But using jargon words when you could opt for something simple and clear instead, typically has the opposite effect, according to Cuban.
“Always use the simpler word,” Cuban told Wired in an October video Q&A.
When asked for the “business buzzword” that annoys him the most, Cuban immediately had one in mind.
“There’s no reason to ever use the word ‘cohort’ when you could use the word ‘group,‘” he said. “A cohort is a group of people. Say ‘group.’ You sound stupid when you use the word ‘cohort,’ because you’re trying to sound smart.”
Corporate jargon and buzzwords often wear on the nerves of those who hear them repeatedly. Terms like “new normal,” “company culture” and “circle back” topped a recent list of most annoying examples, according to a survey of more than 1,500 Americans conducted by language learning platform Preply.
Cuban is in agreement with the likes of fellow billionaire Warren Buffett, who likes to keep things as simple as possible. Buffett writes his annual shareholders letter as if he’s speaking to his two sisters — which, of course, means no jargon — he said in 2019.
Elon Musk, currently the world’s wealthiest person, also disdains jargon, especially in the workplace.
“Don’t use acronyms or nonsense words for objects, software or processes at Tesla. In general, anything that requires an explanation inhibits communication,” he wrote in a 2018 letter to Tesla employees. “We don’t want people to have to memorize a glossary just to function at Tesla.”
Using overly-complicated words in order to sound intelligent actually has the opposite effect: It makes you sound less intelligent and can also muddle your message, studies show.
“We use jargon when we’re feeling insecure, to try to help us feel like we have a higher status,” Adam Galinsky, a Columbia Business School professor of leadership and ethics, wrote in an August article for the school’s website.
That creates an effect where using overly-complicated terms, where simpler ones would easily suffice, gives off the impression that you’re insecure about your own intelligence and trying to overcompensate. Instead, you’re better off speaking plainly and concisely, according to experts.
“People who have higher status are more concerned with articulating themselves and communicating effectively,” Galinsky wrote. In other words: It’s the most effective way to get your point across, and it’s more likely to impress than overreaching with jargon.
1. S&P Percentage of Stocks that Outperformed Index Lowest Since Tech Bubble
RBA Advisors-Despite the economy’s unexpected health, Chart 4 shows the proportion of stocks within the S&P 500® that outperformed the index is the lowest since the Technology Bubble. A healthier-than-expected economy normally argues for broader market leadership, so the Magnificent 7’s extreme outperformance suggests their rally has been fueled more by speculation than by fundamentals. The market has broadened over the past several months, but the year-to-date data still show an extremely narrow market despite that broadening.
Sleep loss has a detrimental impact on our mental health and can causally trigger anxiety and depression
Without sleep regions of the brain that regulate emotions become impaired unleashing emotional hyper-activity
If sleep loss is prolonged people report hallucinations and delusions– gradually losing touch with reality
When I was a graduate student, my colleagues and I studied how losing one night of sleep affects a person’s ability to manage their emotions. Once a week, typically on a Friday evening, I would stay up all night to monitor our participants and ensure they followed the protocol. At about noon the next day, we would all stumble out of the lab, exhausted and eager to get home and rest.
Two months into the experiment, I was in my car at a traffic light when a silly love song started playing on the radio. Suddenly, I was crying uncontrollably. I remember feeling surprised at my reaction. It then hit me that I was not just studying sleep deprivation—I had become part of the study. Weeks of missed sleep had taken their toll, and I was no longer in control of my emotions.
That research project, and many that have followed since, demonstrated a strong and intimate link between better sleep and emotional health. In healthy individuals, good-quality sleep is linked with a more positive mood—and it takes just one night of sleep deprivation to trigger a robust spike in anxiety and depression the following morning. Moreover, people who suffer from chronic sleep disruption tend to experience daily events as more negative, making it hard to escape a gloomy mindset. Indeed, in a national sleep survey, 85 percent of Americans reported mood disruption when they were not able to get enough sleep.
Studies from our lab and others are now beginning to illuminate just how a lack of sleep frays the inner fabric of our mind. One of its many impacts is to disrupt the brain’s circuitry for regulating emotions.
For decades, researchers and medical professionals considered sleep loss a by-product or symptom of another, more “primary” condition, such as depression or anxiety. In other words, first comes the anxiety, and then sleep loss follows. Today, we know that this order can be reversed. In fact, sleep loss and anxiety, depression, or other mental health conditions may feed into one another, creating a downward spiral that is exceedingly difficult to break.
Much evidence in this area comes from chronic sleeplessness or insomnia. People who suffer from insomnia are twice as likely to develop depression or anxiety later in life compared with individuals who sleep well. For instance, a study that followed 1,500 individuals—some with insomnia and others without—found that chronic sleeplessness was associated with a three times greater increase in the onset of depression a year later and twice the increase in the onset of anxiety. Insomnia symptoms also raise the risk of developing post-traumatic stress disorder, track closely with suicidal behavior among at-risk individuals, and often precede a mood episode in people with bipolar disorder. Moreover, even after adequate treatment for depression or anxiety, people who continue to suffer from sleep difficulties are at greater risk of relapse relative to those whose sleep improves. Understanding sleep’s role in this pattern could unlock new insights for helping to prevent and treat many emotional and mental disorders.
Older research already revealed that sleep loss can precede serious mental health symptoms in otherwise healthy individuals. In studies conducted mostly in the 1960s, volunteers who stayed awake for more than two nights reported difficulties forming thoughts, finding words, and composing sentences. They suffered from hallucinations, such as seeing inanimate objects move or experiencing the sensation of another’s touch despite being alone. After three days without sleep, some participants became delusional and paranoid. They believed they were secret agents or that aliens were coming to get them. (If that sounds like a psychotic episode, that’s because it is.) After five days, several participants entered a state resembling a full-blown clinical psychosis and were unable to fully comprehend their circumstances.
In one study, volunteers from the U.S. military attempted to stay awake for more than four nights. A soldier described by his friends as quiet and reserved became extremely aggressive after three nights without sleep. He provoked fights and insisted he was on a secret mission for the president. Eventually, he was forcibly restrained and dismissed from the experiment. Six others exhibited outbursts of violence and persistent hallucinations. In all cases, after sleeping for an entire day, the soldiers behaved normally again and had no recollection of the earlier mayhem. Given such destructive effects, studies of prolonged sleep loss are now considered unethical, but they still offer a powerful reminder of just how sleep-dependent our minds and mental health truly are.
Even with these startling results, scientists have been skeptical about the consequences of restless nights, particularly given that (fortunately) few of us endure such extreme deprivation. That’s where the newest wave of research comes in. In recent years, a neuroscientific explanation has emerged that is beginning to illuminate what it is about sleep, or the lack of it, that seems to have a direct link to our emotions.
Whenever we face a nerve-wracking or emotionally intense challenge, a hub deep in the brain called the amygdala kicks into gear. The amygdala can trigger a comprehensive whole-body response to prepare us for the challenge or threat we face. This flight-or-fight response increases our heart rate and sends a wave of stresshormones rushing into our bloodstream. Luckily, there’s one brain region standing between us and this cascade of hyperarousal: the prefrontal cortex, an area right behind the middle of our eyebrows. Studies show that activity in this region tends to dampen, or downregulate, the amygdala, thus keeping our emotional response under control.
Source: Eti Ben Simon
In studies where my colleagues and I deprived healthy volunteers of one night of sleep, they discovered that the activity of the prefrontal cortex dropped drastically, as measured using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Moreover, the neuralactivity linking the amygdala and the prefrontal cortex became significantly weaker. In other words, both the region and the circuit meant to keep our emotional reactions under control are essentially out of order when sleep is disrupted. Other studies have found that this profile of neural impairment can occur after people experience just one night of sleep deprivation or routinely get less than six hours of sleep—or when participants’ sleep is restricted to only four hours a night for five nights.
This impairment can be so robust that it blurs the lines around what people consider emotional. For example, when my colleagues and I exposed participants to neutral and emotional pictures (think bland images of commuters on a train versus photographs of children crying), fMRI revealed that the amygdala responded differently to these prompts when people were well rested. But after losing a night of sleep, a person’s amygdala responded strongly to both kinds of images. In other words, the threshold for what the brain deems emotional became significantly lower when the amygdala could not act in concert with the prefrontal cortex. Such impaired emotional control makes us more vulnerable to anxiety and poor mood, so that even silly love songs can trigger sobs.
The effects on the amygdala, the prefrontal cortex and the circuitry between the two may have many other consequences as well. In January, we published findings that show that changes in this brain circuit, together with other regions involved in arousal, relate to increases in blood pressure after one night of sleep loss. The brain-level mechanisms my colleagues and I have observed may contribute to changes that negatively affect the entire body, increasing the risk for hypertension and cardiovascular disease.
Stepping back, it becomes clear that—like our physical well-being—mental and emotional health relies on a delicate balance. Myriad choices we make throughout the day and night maintain that balance. Even a single sleepless night can, therefore, do damage. We need to be mindful of this reality, both for ourselves and one another. Inevitably, we all miss out on sleep from time to time. But our societies should critically examine structures—such as work norms, school cultures, and the lack of support for parents or other caregivers—that prevent people from getting enough rest. The science of sleep and mental health suggests that failing to address those problems will leave people vulnerable to serious harm.
When it comes to cities they want to call home, Gen Z is making very different choices than the millennial generation. Members of Gen Z — those ages 18 to 24 — have flooded Ann Arbor, Michigan, the U.S. city that saw its Gen Z population grow the fastest in 2022, according to new data from SmartAsset.
The financial services company used data from the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey to determine which U.S. cities saw the most Gen Zers move in throughout 2022.
The city with the fastest-growing millennial population is over 700 miles away in Cambridge, Massachusetts, according to a separate SmartAsset report based on the same data. While both cities offer bustling downtown areas and prestigious academic environments, Ann Arbor boasts a significantly lower cost of living, according to estimates from Salary.com.
It’s not just their top picks, either. Millennials and Gen Zers appear to have strikingly different preferences when it comes to the cities they’re moving to, according to SmartAsset’s rankings.
Millennials seem to prefer the West Coast, with four of the 10 fastest-growing cities among those ages 25 to 44 in California and Washington. Gen Z, however, skews more toward the East Coast, with five of its top 10 cities lying in eastern states.
Here are the top 10 U.S. cities Gen Zers are flocking to.
Ann Arbor, Michigan
Provo, Utah
Boulder, Colorado
College Station, Texas
Athens, Georgia
Tallahassee, Florida
Berkeley, California
Gainesville, Florida
Columbia, South Carolina
Syracuse, New York
Many of the cities seeing a rise in Gen Z residents are college towns, including Ann Arbor, home to the University of Michigan, and Provo, the location of Brigham Young University.
That makes sense, since the generation includes current 18- and 19-year-olds. College students may get counted in the census as city residents while they live on campus.
Millennials’ most sought-after city, Cambridge, Massachusetts, is also a college town, home to both Harvard University and Massachusetts Institute of Technology. But millennials’ other top cities are better known for their post-graduate career prospects.
Millennials’ No. 2 pick, Santa Clara, California, is in the heart of Silicon Valley, and No. 3 Seattle is also a major tech hub.
Where your work meets your life. See more from Ascend here.
There’s an old African proverb that says, “It takes a village to raise a child.” The idea here is that young people need to interact with and build relationships with a variety of people to grow up well-versed and thrive. This can also be applied to the workplace, specifically to early career professionals.
In the initial stages of your career, one of the most important things you can do is build a village of your own. We’re not talking about a college network, LinkedIn friends, or the people who you met one time at a conference. We’re referring to the relationships that will have a significant impact on your life over time — ones that can accelerate your path to a promotion, increase your visibility within an organization, and stretch you beyond your comfort zone into to the leader you aspire to be.
Throughout our careers as executive coaches, we’ve seen success manifest as a result of these connections. In fact, there are five relationships that we believe are key to anyone’s professional growth. Think of them as your personal board of directors. It will take time to build meaningful relationships with each, so you better start NOW.
1. The Mentor
When a more experienced person teaches someone new, the knowledge transfer that takes place is unparalleled. Some of the most successful people ever have mentors to thank (in part) for their careers. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers mentored Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg. Author and poet Maya Angelou mentored Oprah Winfrey, and music legend Ray Charles mentored the equally talented Quincy Jones.
Think of a mentor as the north star that will keep you on track when you’re feeling lost at work. They are the one person inside (or outside) of your organization who you can turn to for guidance — whether you are looking to expand your industry knowledge, navigate a difficult conversation, listen to feedback on a project, or get some encouragement when times are tough. They are reliable, wise, and most importantly, honest. Mentorship is all about having challenging conversations that help increase your self-awareness and help you grow both personally and professionally.
Great mentors are often proven leaders who have navigated corporate politics and advanced their career within an organization or industry that aligns with your longer-term goals. To find one, think about someone whose path you deeply admire but is still within reach, someone who may actually respond to your email or LinkedIn message. A potential mentor has to be open to forming a professional relationship with you because, more often than not, they’re pressed for time and mentoring takes effort.
Once you’ve identified a potential mentor, reach out to them in writing. Don’t start with “Would you be my mentor?” These kind of bonds form slowly after you’ve both had a chance to interact and build trust. Instead, share one or two things you admire about their work, and explain why you’re contacting them in the first place. You might say, “I attended the digital conference last week and was intrigued by your talk on what makes content go viral. I’m new to this field, and I’m interested in specializing in video production. I’d love to hear your career story and how you got here. Would it be possible for us to have a quick video chat sometime within the next couple of weeks so I can learn more?”
After your initial meeting, take the time to engage with them regularly — potentially quarterly or bimonthly — updating them on your projects, progress, and achievements. This will help you develop a reputation as someone who can manage stakeholders and deliver what you set out to do. Building a strong personal brand by displaying your competence, experience, and positive attitude is an effective way to attract the interest of powerful people at your company. Potential mentors will want to advise someone who is already on an upward trajectory.
2. The Sponsor
While mentors give you advice and perspective, sponsors advocate on your behalf, and in some cases, directly present you with career advancement opportunities. They play a role in the “behind closed doors” conversations that you may not be included in, and can support your boss in advocating for you in front of other members of the leadership team.
Morgan Stanley’s Managing Director Carla Harris gets it right in her TED Talk. “A mentor, frankly, is a nice-to-have,” she says, “but you can survive a long time in your career without one. You are not going to ascend in any organization without a sponsor.”
Research backs her up. A junior manager with a sponsor is 21% more likely to climb up the career ladder than someone in the same position without one. The global think tank and advisory group Coqual even devised the phrase the “sponsor effect” to describe how high power is transferred in the workplace. Their research found that “one in four white men in the middle ranks of workplaces have sponsorship, but only one in eight women and just one in 20 minorities have them,” indicating opportunities for greater sponsorship among gender and diverse groups for advancement.
To find a sponsor, you need to begin by showing people in your organization that you’re someone worth advocating for. This means you must be great at what you do — and your work must be visible.
Start by thinking about what unique skills, cultural knowledge, or generational life experiences you can share with your organization that will add value to their mission and help them reach outstanding goals. For example, if you work at an agency that is looking to bring innovative advertising offerings to their clients, your manager might be interested in learning more about emerging video-sharing networks like TikTok or live-streaming platforms like Twitch. If you have first-hand experience with these technologies, then offer to host a zoom “brown bag” lunch to share your knowledge.
Sponsors, like mentors, are in high demand and difficult to recruit. But if you develop a standout reputation, they might end up coming to you. Alternatively, you may be able to ask your mentor to make an introduction or reach out yourself for an introductory chat over coffee. Whatever you do, the first time you meet with a potential sponsor, be sure to enter the conversation with a purpose. Ask them questions about their career path, work, passions, and goals. Then, share your own. You want to build a foundation of good intention and rapport.
3. The Partner
A partnership is a mutually beneficial peer relationship. It is fueled by trust, a shared drive to succeed, and the recognition that you can do better together. Your partner is an ally who can serve as a sounding board to broaden your perspective, a collaborator to tackle problems with, and a connector that can help you build out your personal brand and expand your network.
Your partner is not always your work BFF. This relationship is more transactional. You each have an explicit intent to elevate yourselves by elevating each other.
One powerful example of a partnership can be observed through the women in President Obama’s administration. They used an “amplification” strategy to support one another and make their collective voices heard. When a woman made a key point during a meeting, the other women would repeat it, giving credit to its author.
Simply put, finding a partner is similar to finding a co-founder — look for someone whose personality and work ethic complement your own. You want a person who will fill the gaps in your working style. For instance, if you are more of an introvert who avoids public speaking, look for a partner who enjoys presenting and will promote your shared projects when doing so. If you are a strategic, big-picture person who doesn’t thrive with the details, look for a partner who is strong in analytics and operations.
It’s also important to choose a partner, such as a peer or cross-functional team-member, who are working towards the same outcome as you.
A good first step towards building this relationship is becoming an advocate for other people’s work. Pay attention to who reciprocates your enthusiasm. They may be a good candidate for the role. Ultimately, what makes a partnership work is the idea that you two will be more successful together.
4. The Competitor
The business world is full of rivalries: Steve Jobs vs. Bill Gates. Jeff Bezos vs. Elon Musk. Indra Nooyi vs. Irene Rosenfeld. Some of these rivalries have resulted in amazing breakthroughs.
Competition can be healthy if it’s focused on achieving results (a win-win) rather than battling for resources (a win-lose). When used correctly, it can serve as a motivation to hone and improve your skills and lead to improved performance, breakthrough ideas, and a greater drive to get things done.
Your competitor could be your ally or even your partner. Imagine that you and a peer come up with two great ideas for executing a project. You know that both of you have the potential to think up unique and separately effective solutions. Instead of butting heads and trying to choose one over the other, how might the end result look if you collaborated and came up with something that’s much more effective and valuable?
That’s what competitors can do. The idea is to win, not win over.
Remember that competitive relationships show up naturally at work. As Dr. Stephen Covey states in his business classic The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People, a win-win attitude possesses three vital character traits; integrity, maturity, and abundance mentality. So, choose your competitor after evaluating these traits. Once you have identified a potential competitor in your company, schedule a one-on-one meeting. One way to entice them to work with you, instead of against you, is to have a vulnerable conversation. Be sure to tell them you admire them professionally and consider them a formidable peer. Then, share your aspirations, ask them about their goals, and figure out if there are ways you can help each other succeed.
Physics Nobel Prize winner and Cal Tech Professor Richard Feynman coined the phrase, “If you want to master something, teach it.” Most of us have been teachers at some point in our lives. Whether we’re teaching our friends how to play a card game, our kids how to ride a bike, or our classmates how to better understand a difficult concept. No matter the situation, assuming the role of the teacher helps you gain greater clarity of a subject by breaking it down into simple steps, or by articulating a complex problem in a more understandable way.
At work, having a mentee serves this purpose — it allows you to be the teacher. Whether you help onboard an intern or assist a new colleague in navigating the specifics of a project they’ve been assigned, you learn more by teaching more.
Becoming a mentor also helps hone important soft skills that every leader should have: strong communication, creativity, and empathy. Employers are looking to groom leaders who can provide clear direction, be innovative problem solvers, and who have emotional intelligence. As a mentor, you are a leader and role model. You learn to bring out the best in others, recognize their strengths, give feedback, and coach. Thus, this role will push you to be better and to strive for more.
Seek out these opportunities internally by looking for interns or new employees that may need help settling in. You can also do this externally by mentoring in affinity organizations such as your alma mater or a non-profit. That said, if done at work, being a mentor will give you more visibility and help build up that good reputation we discussed.
Sometimes forming these relationships will happen randomly and without effort. But you can accomplish so much more if you are open and intentional about it. So, don’t leave things to chance. As the Roman philosopher Seneca puts it, “Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.”
@Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm)All-in on AI: Speculators have been stampeding into tech stocks. The combination of AI hype, passive flows favoring the big end of town, and the prospect of peak rates has powered up speculative fervor.
IWC Micro-Cap ETF bounce but 4 Lower Lows in a Row…Long Way to Go.
4. Massive Surge of Inflows into Smallcap Last Week.
Dave Lutz Jones Trading The End of Last Week saw massive inflows into US Smallcap Value Names, with KRE (Regional Banks) up 10%
5. More than Tech Now Rallying-80% of Names Above 200-Day
Equities: Market breadth has improved dramatically. Here is the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average.
Source: The Daily Shot
6. 72% of Large Firms Had Cyber Attack this Year
Barrons Attacks have become a fact of corporate life. An estimated 72% of firms with annual revenue over $5 billion were attacked in the past year, according to Sophos, a cybersecurity software firm. The number of attacks in the third quarter was up 95% from a year earlier, says cyber specialty insurer Corvus. Hackers could reap $1 billion in ransoms this year, more than the years 2018 through 2020 combined, according to estimates from crypto data firm Chainalysis.
10. Update on Drinking in America—Professor Galloway Blog
Halved Between 2002 and 2018, the share of college students who don’t drink alcohol jumped from 20% to 28%, and, overall, Gen Z drinks 20% less alcohol per capita than millennials did at the same age — which was, in turn, 20% less than Gen X consumed. Among high school students, 39% drank alcohol in 2011; just 23% drink today. Think about that: In just a decade the number of high school students who drink has been almost halved. Youth drinking is declining despite another broad shift, the shrinking gender gap — older Americans are drinking more as a cohort, as a generation of women who grew up when drinking was more acceptable for them ages. The trend is global: In Japan, where drinking binges are ingrained in the work culture, as a means of establishing trust, 60% of the population now believes that after-work drinking is “no longer necessary.” Youth drinking in the U.K. has been falling for two decades.
Drinking hasn’t vanished from youth experience in the same fashion as mix tapes or call waiting, but the cultural impact of the shift is greater than the numbers suggest. Concert promoters report dramatic declines in alcohol sales at shows with younger audiences, and they’ve started stocking more no- and low-alcohol options at concessions. Alcohol giant AB InBev projects no/low brands (variants of traditionally alcoholic beverages without alcohol) will make up 20% of sales by 2025. High-end mocktails and drybars are on trend, and millions of people participate in Dry January every year.
2. 60/40 Portfolio Had Best Month Since 1990 in November.
Blackrock 60/40…50day thru 200day to upside.
3. Concentration Update S&P Top 10 Stocks Make Up 35% of Index.
The concentration in the S&P500 continues to increase, and the ten largest stocks now make up 35% of the index, the highest level since the last tech bubble in 2000,
Torsten Slok, Ph.D. Chief Economist, PartnerApollo Global Management
4. Coverd Call ETFS—Defensive Strategy $26B in Flows 2023
Dave Lutz Jones Trading COVERED CALLS TOMORROW– Investors on the hunt for regular income have this year poured almost $26bn into exchange traded funds that sell options tied to stocks, inspiring a wave of copycats and raising questions about their effects on market volatility. The funds, known as covered call ETFs, have surged in popularity to contain roughly $59bn in combined assets, up from only $3bn three years ago, according to the FTCovered call ETFs sell options on underlying equity holdings to generate income in the form of premiums while also limiting the magnitude of gains and losses. Typically seen as a defensive strategy, they’ve enjoyed continued success in a year when US markets have boomed. About half of this year’s new money into covered call ETFs has gone to the $30bn JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI), an S&P 500 index-focused product that has grown to become the largest actively managed ETF.
5. Regional Banks-Chart Update.
KRE 50day crossing 200day to upside.
KRE Longer-Term Chart….Rallying to 200-week moving average
6. Russell 2000 Small Cap Still Not Even Back to August 2023 Levels.
7. PDD Holdings New Chinese Stock Leader +78% YTD….Revenues +90% + Year Over Year
PDD vs. BIDU chart
8. More Strong Labor Market Data
In recent months, we have seen a significant increase in the number of men age 55 to 64 joining the workforce, see chart below. Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, PartnerApollo Global Management
9. Range Rovers Become Thief-Magnets, Causing Prices to Tumble-Bloomberg
The second-hand luxury SUVs have dropped 9% in value since May
Jaguar Land Rover considers bespoke insurance for car owners
Tim Coen, a property investor, loved his Range Rover Sport but decided it was time to go green. He wanted to trade in the gas-guzzling sport utility vehicle for an electric Porsche.
There was a snag, however. A string of Range Rover thefts in the UK has caused insurance premiums to skyrocket. While the Porsche was being built, his coverage provider said it wouldn’t re-insure the Range Rover. He searched online and the cheapest quote he could find was £48,000 ($60,100).
The eye-watering cost has sent the SUV’s resale value tumbling. The Leeds-based entrepreneur, who runs investment firm North Property Group, paid £103,000 for his Sport SVR two years ago. He checked its value online three months ago and it was supposedly worth £75,000. Now, it would only fetch about £45,000, according to the same site.
Coen, 34, can’t even sell it — he would need to fork out an extra £25,000 to pay off the finance because of the drop in valuation.
“I was trying to be a bit more eco-friendly, but now I’m probably not because I’ve got two cars rather than one,” said Coen, whose previous Range Rover was stolen in London in 2020.
He isn’t the only one to have seen the value of his vehicle go into reverse. The average price of a used Range Rover has fallen 9.3% since May to £35,224, versus declines of 5.7% for all luxury SUVs and 2.8% for all cars, data from car site Auto Trader shows.
Range Rover prices fell 2.8% in November alone, Auto Trader said, the steepest drop since insurance costs spiked. The declines follow a surge in second-hand car prices during the pandemic, when new-vehicle production slowed due to semiconductor shortages and other supply chain crises.
Delving into the continuous process of individual growth in your relationships. Ilene Strauss Cohen Ph.D.
KEY POINTS
Personal development is not a destination but a continuous path. Individual growth requires commitment, effort, and patience. We develop the most through our important relationships.
Many individuals seek quick solutions and universal advice to overcome their challenges. However, personal development is not a destination but an ongoing journey of self-improvement and self-discovery. It’s not a process that can be expedited through a handful of therapy sessions but rather a lifelong pursuit of becoming the best version of oneself. After all, what could be more important than that?
Personal development is a continuous process that makes life all the more enjoyable. We are constantly evolving beings, each with our unique set of challenges. These challenges can be viewed as opportunities for growth and learning rather than problems to be solved and eradicated.
Personal development encompasses enhancing one’s skills, abilities, awareness, and overall quality of life. This improvement can manifest in various ways — from learning new languages to developing emotional intelligence. While external factors like career advancement or relationship transitions can stimulate personal development, it is primarily fueled by an internal drive for self-improvement.
However, where can we develop ourselves the most? Believe it or not, it is through our most important relationships. That, combined with our internal drive for self-improvement, is one of the best ways to improve ourselves. We should not understand individuals in isolation but as part of their family system. A family is an emotional unit that significantly influences an individual’s behavior and development. For instance, understanding one’s familial relationships can help identify patterns of emotional reactivity, a crucial aspect of personal growth. By recognizing these patterns, individuals can strive towards greater emotional maturity and reduced reactivity to the dynamics of their family systems. You can also become aware of who you want to be within your most important relationships.
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Consider Beth, a young professional who often conflicts with her colleagues. She had a short temper and found it challenging to handle criticism, constantly engaging in heated exchanges. Realizing the need for change, Beth decided to focus on personal development. She began by seeking to understand her emotional reactivity and its roots in her early family relationships. Beth realized her defensiveness and inability to handle criticism were patterns she had learned in her childhood home, where expressing disagreement was often met with hostility. With this insight, Jane committed to changing her behavior. She started practicing active listening, responding rather than reacting, and developing empathy towards her colleagues. Over time, she noticed a distinct change in her interactions, reflecting her growth and maturity within her professional relationships.
Brain Plasticity and Personal Development
Recent research on brain plasticity has given us a new perspective on personal development. Brain plasticity, or neuroplasticity, is the brain’s ability to reorganize itself by forming new neural connections throughout life. This neuroscientific concept suggests that our brains are not rigidly hardwired as once thought but are dynamic and adaptable.
Brain plasticity means that our habits, behaviors, and thought patterns can change over time, reinforcing the idea that personal development is an ongoing process. With consistent effort, we can reshape our brains to develop new skills, adopt healthier habits, and overcome limiting beliefs.
The Lifelong Journey
Personal development is not a destination but a continuous path through self-awareness of what needs to change. It requires commitment, effort, and patience, along with a willingness to see what we are up against in our most profound relationships. Here are some steps to help you on your journey:
1. Self-awareness: Begin by understanding yourself better. Recognize your strengths, weaknesses, values, and beliefs. Assess how you respond to different situations and what triggers certain behaviors in you. This understanding is the first step towards positive change. Keep a journal to record your thoughts, feelings, and reactions, and review it regularly for patterns and areas of improvement.
2. Understanding Your Family System: By viewing yourself as a part of an interconnected system, you can identify how your family dynamics have shaped your behaviors, emotions, and thought patterns. Understanding and addressing these familial patterns can lead to improved communication, healthier boundaries, and reduced emotional reactivity within the family system. Working on yourself involves acknowledging the interactive nature of personal development within your family context.
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3. Goal Setting: Identify what you want to improve or achieve. Ensure your goals are SMART – Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Relevant, and Time-bound. Once you’ve set your goals, devise a clear plan of action to bring them to fruition. Detail the steps you need to take, resources you may require, and potential obstacles you may encounter. Regularly assess your progress and adjust your plan if necessary, understanding that flexibility is critical to achieving your goals.
4. Skill Acquisition: Learn and develop the necessary skills to achieve your goals. This could involve formal education, online courses, reading, or practicing a specific skill. Suppose your goal is to improve your public speaking skills. Start by identifying areas you wish to enhance, such as articulation, body language, or audience engagement. Next, look for resources that can aid in your development. This could involve signing up for a public speaking course, reading books on the topic, or watching online tutorials.
5. Reflection and Evaluation: Regularly reflect on your progress. Consider what’s working, what isn’t, and how you can adjust your approach. For example, your goal might be to improve communication within your romantic relationship. After implementing changes for a month, you might reflect on what progress has been made. You may notice that while you’re having fewer arguments, you still struggle to express your feelings clearly. This reflection indicates that while the changes have been beneficial, there’s still room for improvement. The evaluation might lead you to seek resources focused explicitly on expressing emotions effectively. Remember, reflection and evaluation are ongoing processes crucial for continuous growth and development in any aspect of life.
6. Persistence: Change takes time. Stay committed to your personal development journey, even when it gets tough. Consider finding a therapist or joining a support group to help you stay persistent in your growth. Try not to give up and remember it is okay to take breaks. Development doesn’t happen in a straight line; there will be setbacks, and that is typical.
Personal development is a lifelong journey. It’s about being open to change and growth, understanding your family system, leveraging the power of brain plasticity, and consistently working towards becoming the best version of yourself. Remember, every step, no matter how small, brings you closer to your personal growth goals. And no matter how much work you have done on yourself, we all go backward at times, and the critical part is that you get yourself back up.
The accompanying chart plots this ratio, courtesy of data provided by Rob Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates. You will notice that, from its low at the top of that bubble in 2000 to its high in 2006, the ratio nearly doubled—from 0.37 to 0.73. Over that period, the average small-cap value stock produced a 22.2% annualized gain (before transaction costs), according to data from Arnott, versus a 0.1% annualized gain for the average value stock. That’s equivalent to an annualized margin of more than 22 percentage points, which is extraordinary.
2. Large Stocks vs. Small Stocks Outperformance Record Levels.
@Charlie Bilello Large vs. Small: The S&P 500 is outperforming the Russell 2000 by 13.7% in 2023. In the last 30 years, large cap outperformance has only been higher two times: 1998 (31.1% spread) and 2021 (13.9% spread).
3. High Dividend Stocks are also at Record Low Valuations Versus S&P
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government is cracking open the history books for its latest attempt to address a severe housing shortage in Canada.
The government is moving forward with a catalog of pre-approved home designs to reduce the cost and time it takes to build housing. The idea dates back to the 1940s when thousands of soldiers returned from the Second World War and needed a place to live.
“We are living in a housing crisis, but it’s not the first time Canada’s been here,” said Housing Minister Sean Fraser at a news conference on Tuesday.
The new program will differ from the wartime strategy in some key ways, however. Between the 1940s and 1960s, a catalog of simple designs allowed for as many as a million wood-frame detached homes — known as “Victory Houses” or “Strawberry Box” homes — to be built across the country.
This is how to be strategic and achieve your goals:
What Strategy Isn’t: Fluff, not facing the challenge, mistaking goals for strategy and bad strategic objectives are all signs of a bad strategy. You’re basically crossing your fingers and hoping the universe is in a really giving mood.
What Strategy Is: “Good strategy works by focusing energy and resources on one, or a very few, pivotal objectives whose accomplishment will lead to a cascade of favorable outcomes.” Yes, this phrase sounds like something a LinkedIn influencer would say while trying to sell you a webinar. But it makes sense and it works.
Diagnosis: Be honest about what obstacles you’re facing. Without that, strategy is just business improv. And nobody – I repeat, nobody – wants to see accountants and middle managers doing improv.
Guiding Policy: How can you apply your strengths to the weaknesses of the obstacle and create leverage to overcome them? You need to focus. Trying to do too many things, avoiding tough choices and thinking you’re going to please everybody might be why you cry in the shower.
Coherent Action: If your strategy is all goals and no action, it’s not a strategy; it’s a daydream with bullet points.
So how do you get started? You need to know what you want to achieve. This can be a problem for a lot of people. But it’s not that hard – in fact, it’s quite easy. Quick story:
It’s 1890 and multi-millionaire Andrew Carnegie is holding court at a cocktail party. People are hanging on his every word. Frederick Taylor approaches. He was famous as an expert on helping people organize their work. Carnegie looked at him and said, “Young man, if you can tell me something about management that is worth hearing, I will send you a check for ten thousand dollars.” Ten grand then was about $300,000 today. It was probably more of a status challenge than a real offer. Everyone turned to look at Taylor…
“Mr. Carnegie,” Taylor said, “I would advise you to make a list of the ten most important things you can do. And then, start doing number one.” A week later, Taylor received a check for ten grand.
Sounds ridiculous, right? This is the most basic advice in the world. Every corny self-help book recommends this. Why in the world would Carnegie – an amazing businessman by any measure — see this as valuable? The list wasn’t that valuable. But actually making the list was incredibly valuable. We talked about the importance of tough choices. And making a list forces you to decide what’s important and what’s possible. Taylor’s list got Carnegie to reflect on what mattered most to him – and to consider ways of getting there.
Business fads come and go. Self-help tricks come and go. We love shiny new things. But what’s important is making choices that don’t make future-you want to time travel back and slap some sense into present-you. So make a list. Consider what’s important to you. Think about the obstacles. Discover where the obstacles are weak and where you are strong to create points of leverage. And then…
Former Apple executive Guy Kawasaki recently interviewed an author he credits for “fundamentally changing my life.” The author is Stanford psychology professor Carol Dweck, who wrote the influential bookMindset: The New Psychology of Success.
Dweck popularized the concept of the growth mindset, which describes people who believe their skills and abilities can be developed. On the other hand, those with a fixed mindset believe they’re born with a certain amount of skill or intelligence, and that’s it.
Dweck says that mindsets fluctuate–a person can have a growth mindset most of the time, but shift to a fixed mindset when faced with setbacks. For founders to build successful teams, they must learn to identify those people who exhibit a growth mindset most of the time, because those hires will lift the entire team’s success.
After two decades of working with top CEOs and entrepreneurs who credit the growth mindset for getting them to the top, I’ve learned to recognize five signs that reflect a person who is always learning and always growing.
1. They’re learn-it-alls.
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella credits Dweck’s book for helping him shift his mindset from fixed to growth. The change in his approach led Nadella to make major transformations at Microsoft. It also changed the way he hires.
Nadella looks for learn-it-alls and not know-it-alls. How can he tell? By hiring people who are not afraid to fail.
Job candidates with a growth mindset are the first to acknowledge mistakes they’ve made because they view failures as opportunities to learn and improve. They don’t wait for the question, “Tell me about your greatest weakness?” or “Tell me about a time you failed?”Instead, they bring it up themselves because they know setbacks are setups for success.
2. They seek out mentors.
“People with more of a growth mindset take on mentors and seek them out to enhance the likelihood that they can use their growth mindset successfully,” says Dweck.
I recently had dinner with a founder who built a business from the ground up and sold it for $100 million. The founder also brought along his mentor, a former CEO who had acted as this founder’s informal advisor for 20 years.
What I found remarkable is that–despite the founder’s success–he was still asking his mentor questions at the dinner table. That’s the growth mindset in action–always learning, always seeking feedback.
3. They admit to mistakes and learn from them.
Ray Dalio is a billionaire who founded Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund. Dalio famously owns up to financial mistakes he’s made over the years.For example, he bet a depression would take down the U.S. economy in 1982. He was wrong; stocks went on a bull run, and Dalio’s firm lost money.
But Dalio turned the mistake into a learning opportunity and openly discusses how the event changed his mindset, how he makes financial decisions, and the qualities he looks for in new hires. Dalio’s mistakes made him a more successful investor, and today he’s a strong advocate for turning mistakes into opportunities to grow and improve.
4. They’re insatiably curious.
Dax Shepard hosts the immensely successful podcast Armchair Expert, consistently ranked as one of the most popular podcasts on Spotify.
Shepard is a voracious reader who invites his favorite authors on the show. When Tim Ferriss asked Shepard which book he would gift others, Shepard immediately launched into a discussion of Ron Chernow’s book Titan, a biography of John D. Rockefeller.The question that Ferriss asked is a good indicator of a growth mindset. If you’re a founder, ask potential hires for their book recommendations. You’ll quickly find out if they’re insatiably curious, a key sign of a growth mindset.
5. They surround themselves with smarter people.
Warren Buffett is one of the most intelligent investors on the planet. Yet, he often credits his success to hiring people who are smarter than he is.By smarter, Buffet is not referring to a person’s IQ. He simply acknowledges that some people know a lot more about a particular topic than he does.Very few people can set aside their egos and admit that someone knows more than they do. But that’s why so few people truly exhibit the qualities of a lifelong learner. Once you identify growth mindset people, hire them, hold them close, and keep them around.
Source: @Callum_Thomas using Market ChartsFinancial Conditions Breakout: One positive is that the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index has broken out to the highest (most easy/stimulative) point since early-2022. And it has been this sharp turnaround in financial conditions that has fueled the rally in stocks (falling bond yields, weaker USD, tighter credit spreads, lower oil price).
…but. The Fed has its final meeting of 2023 next week, and while the market has already made up its mind that the Fed is done with rate hikes, it will be interesting to see if the Fed gives the OK to this easing — there is the potential they may see it as too much too quick, and seek to talk back some of the easing in financial conditions.
5. Russell 1000 Growth (IWF) P/E 32 vs. Russell 1000 Value (IWN) P/E 14
IWF vs. IWN 2023..Growth straight up in face of rising rates
6. Grayscale Ethereum Almost a Double Since October 1
7. Institutional Investors Pull $31B from China Stocks and Bonds
WSJ The amount of money that institutional investors have in Chinese stocks and bonds has declined by more than $31 billion this year, through October, the biggest net outflow since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, official Chinese data show. By Lingling Wei
8. India building world’s largest renewable energy project in salt deserts bordering Pakistan-AP Press
The solar and wind energy project will be so big that it will be visible from space, according to developers of what is called the Khavda renewable energy park
Workers tighten screws on the support structure for solar panel installation at the construction site of Adani Green Energy Ltd’s renewable energy park in the salt desert of Karim Shahi village, near Khavda, Bhuj in Gujarat. (AP)
Rising from the bare expanse of the large salt desert that separates India from Pakistan is what will likely be the world’s largest renewable energy project when completed three years from now.
The solar and wind energy project will be so big that it will be visible from space, according to developers of what is called the Khavda renewable energy park, named after the village nearest to the project site.
At the site, thousands of laborers install pillars on which solar panels will be mounted. The pillars rise like perfectly aligned concrete cactuses that stretch as far as the eye can see. Other workers are building foundations for enormous wind turbines to be installed; they also are transporting construction material, building substations and laying wires for miles.
When completed, the project will be about as large as Singapore, spreading out over 726 square kilometers (280 square miles). The Indian government estimates it will cost at least $2.26 billion.
Shifting to renewable energy is a key issue at the ongoing COP28 climate summit. Some leaders have voiced support for a target of tripling renewable energy worldwide in any final agreement while curbing use of coal, oil and natural gas, which spew planet-warming gases into the atmosphere.
What makes this heavy industrial activity peculiar is that it’s taking place in the middle of the Rann of Kutch in western India’s Gujarat state. The Rann is an unforgiving salt desert and marshland at least 70 kilometers (43.5 miles) from the nearest human habitation but just a short army truck ride away from one of the world’s most tense international borders separating the two South Asian nations.
Philadelphia Inquirer by Nate File and Massarah MikatiSince the pandemic began, gun sales and permit issuances have risen sharply in Philadelphia and Pennsylvania, matching nationwide trends. In 2021, the city issued 52,230 new license-to-carry-permits, an increase of more than 600% from the year prior. In both 2020 and 2021, there were more than a million gun sales or transfers across Pennsylvania.
But a significant group within this class of new gun owners are people who are not excited to carry such powerful weapons. They are not gun enthusiasts or Second Amendment hard-liners, and many of them don’t fit Pew’s demographic profile for the typical American gun owner. Over and over, this group articulated their growing fear for their safety in Philadelphia, and how they felt like buying a gun was the only way left to protect themselves.
The kids and I listened to the first 25 minutes of this episode on ego versus mastery orientation in the car, and it sparked a great conversation.
“Why do kids love to learn? Because learning is fun. Why do kids go out on the golf course [and] want to play until the sun is set and they’re out there all night? Because it’s an amazing sport. It’s super fun. It’s just a fascinating…, get lost in the game. So, at what point in educational development do kids start to dislike school? Happens around third grade. What happens in third grade? We start giving kids grades.
So what happens is there’s a shift from a mastery orientation to what’s called an “ego orientation.” … When you ask people with an ego orientation, “Hey, why do you do what you do?” what you’ll often see is, “Well, I like to beat other people” or “I want to prove something. I need to prove myself to other people.” Or it’s some version of image management — like you’re trying to show off and prove yourself to others.”
1. November-5th Best 30 Day Performance Ever for AGG Bond Index
Nasdaq Dorsey Wright As we touched on in yesterday’s featured piece, the bond market has been on a tear since the end of October. A stark change in rate expectations surrounding Fed policy has helped buoy bonds to one of their best performances in three decades. The iShares US Core Bond ETF (AGG) returned a staggering 4.90% from November 1st through December 1st, which is its fifth-best 30-day performance in 30 years. The only other 30-day periods that were better took place at the end of 2008 (twice), April 2020, and December 2022. Coincidentally or not, this strong performance follows one of the worst 30-day periods for AGG which ended on October 3rd marking a decline of 4.55%. Another interesting observation is the similarity to last year which had one of the largest 30-day bond market declines ending in late September and one of the best 30-day rallies ending in early December, a very similar time frame to this year.
5. Retail investors are sitting out the stock resurgence-CNN Cash and Bonds ?
Analysis by Krystal Hur, CNN New York CNN — This year’s stock rally is back on course, but not everyone is on board.
The S&P 500 index in November notched its best monthly performance this year, snapping a three-month streak of steep losses as Wall Street became optimistic that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates. The revival in stocks, though off to a bumpy start in December, has been broad in reach, pulling up shares of everything from small caps to cyclical stocks.
Among the chief catalysts for the rally are swooning US Treasury yields. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell to 4.12% on Wednesday, well below the 5% it topped in late October, according to Tradeweb.
The glut of cash on the sidelines is “poised to fuel a significant rally in risk assets, offering investors an opportunity to potentially capitalize on improved sentiment and market dynamics,” wrote Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, in a note on Monday.
But analysts say that retail traders aren’t jumping into the stock market and might not anytime soon. Cash is still king for many.
The TD Ameritrade Investor Movement index for November, a measure of retail investor sentiment, revealed that the company’s clients were net sellers of stocks last month despite the market’s recovery. The index also recorded its lowest monthly reading since May.
“A lot of retail investors are just happy to not participate right now,” said Brian Mulberry, client portfolio manager at Zacks Investment Management.
There is a record $5.84 trillion parked in money market funds as of November 29, according to Investment Company Institute data. About $2.25 trillion of that cash is in retail money market funds.
While institutional investors are starting to pick at stocks poised to do well if the economy reaccelerates — explaining the rally’s widening breadth — retail traders are taking a more conservative approach, especially after seeing steep declines in their portfolios during last year’s sell-off, says Mulberry.
8. 3200 Venture Backed Companies Have Gone Out of Business in 2023
NY Times By Erin Griffith WeWork raised more than $11 billion in funding as a private company. Olive AI, a health care start-up, gathered $852 million. Convoy, a freight start-up, raised $900 million. And Veev, a home construction start-up, amassed $647 million.
In the last six weeks, they all filed for bankruptcy or shut down. They are the most recent failures in a tech start-up collapse that investors say is only beginning.
After staving off mass failure by cutting costs over the past two years, many once-promising tech companies are now on the verge of running out of time and money. They face a harsh reality: Investors are no longer interested in promises. Rather, venture capital firms are deciding which young companies are worth saving and urging others to shut down or sell.
It has fueled an astonishing cash bonfire. In August, Hopin, a start-up that raised more than $1.6 billion and was once valued at $7.6 billion, sold its main business for just $15 million. Last month, Zeus Living, a real estate start-up that raised $150 million, said it was shutting down. Plastiq, a financial technology start-up that raised $226 million, went bankrupt in May. In September, Bird, a scooter company that raised $776 million, was delisted from the New York Stock Exchange because of its low stock price. Its $7 million market capitalization is less than the value of the $22 million Miami mansion that its founder, Travis VanderZanden, bought in 2021.
But approximately 3,200 private venture-backed U.S. companies have gone out of business this year, according to data compiled for The New York Times by PitchBook, which tracks start-ups. Those companies had raised $27.2 billion in venture funding. PitchBook said the data was not comprehensive and probably undercounts the total because many companies go out of business quietly. It also excluded many of the largest failures that went public, such as WeWork, or that found buyers, like Hopin.
10. This Proven 5-Step Method Helps You Fall Asleep Fast and Wake Up Rested, According to a Psychology PhD
Whatever you do, don’t look at the clock.
BY MINDA ZETLIN, AUTHOR OF ‘CAREER SELF-CARE: FIND YOUR HAPPINESS, SUCCESS, AND FULFILLMENT AT WORK’@MINDAZETLIN
Even if you think you’re getting enough sleep, you may not be getting enough rest. That insight comes from Terry Lyles, a psychology PhD, a stress expert who coaches fighter pilots and firefighters, and co-author of the new book Becoming Invaluable. “Sleep is what our body needs,” he explains. “Rest is what our mind and soul need for the body to recover itself.” If you sleep but don’t rest, he explains, you’re likely to wake up the next morning still feeling tired.
So how do you make sure you’re getting enough of the right kind of sleep? Here’s Lyles’s recipe for a restful night.
1. Have enough nightlights. Your first step in this process begins way before you head for bed. You have to make sure there are enough nightlights so that if you need to get out of bed in the middle of the night, for instance to use the bathroom, you’ll be able to see your way there and back without having to turn on a light. “Don’t turn lights on,” he says. “Have nightlights set up in your house so that it’s low lit. Do what you have to do and get back in bed.” Turning on a light will jar you out of that restful state, making it harder for you to get back to sleep.
2. Put your phone away. You’ve likely heard by now that looking at any kind of electronic screen, including your phone or a television, can interfere with restful sleep. Once you’re in bed and ready to go to sleep, don’t look at your phone anymore. In particular, he says, if you wake up during the night for whatever reason, resist the temptation to grab your phone or turn on the television. “How quickly can you recover and go back to sleep?” he says. Turning on your phone or your television won’t help you do that. “The way to recover is to relax and know how to go back into that brainwave cycle that can get you back to an eventual REM sleep.” (REM, or rapid eye movement, sleep is the sleep stage where you dream, and it’s important for making you feel rested.)
3. Never look at the clock. If you’re accustomed to checking your bedside clock or your watch if you wake up during the night, Lyles recommends getting out of that habit immediately. “Never look at the clock at night,” Lyles advises. “It’s worse than your cellphone.” Looking at the clock causes your left brain to take over, he says. That can make you start thinking about all the things you need to do or want to do for work.
Eventually, he says, you’ll fall back asleep because you’re tired. “But now you’ve got crazy dreams. Now you wake up not rested, even though you slept,” he says.
4. Reset your focus. Lyles recommends meditation as a way to unwind and get into that sleep state. But when he says “meditation,” he doesn’t necessarily mean sitting cross-legged or reciting a mantra. “Meditation is misconstrued and misunderstood,” he says. “I teach athletes how to meditate in the midst of performance.”
Here’s an example, he says: “Everyone knows how to worry. That’s a trained muscle. Worry is negative meditation.” So, he says, change the object of your focus. “If you change the object to something awesome, something you’re grateful for, someone who loves you or whom you love? Boom! That’s meditation.”
Focusing on the wrong thing causes your body to release cortisol (sometimes called “the stress hormone”). “Now we wind up with all this imagery and distractability, and we’re afraid,” Lyles says. To stop this process, he recommends having a visualization prepared that you can mentally grab when you need it. “The mountains, the beach, it doesn’t matter,” he says. “Go there and take it in visually. Keep your eyes closed and breathe yourself back. Before long, you’re back asleep.”
5. Practice “4-1-4 breath.” “You can actually breathe yourself to sleep,” Lyles says. This is because slowing down your breath slows your heartbeat and signals to your body that there is nothing to fear.
Lyles recommends “4-1-4 breath.” Breathe in for four seconds by counting to yourself “One one thousand, two one thousand,” and so on. Then hold your breath for one second, and breathe out for four seconds. By repeating that cycle, he says, “you literally put yourself to sleep because your body goes into that resting physical mode.”
Lyles says he teaches this approach to athletes lying on floor mats in a gym, and they usually fall asleep within five minutes. “We’re all fatigued, we’re all overused,” he says. “If you put your body in a restful state, your body will fall asleep. You don’t have to put yourself to sleep–it will go into sleep mode.”
There’s a growing audience of Inc.com readers who receive a daily text from me with a self-care or motivational micro-challenge or tip. Often, they text me back and we wind up in a conversation. (Want to learn more? Here’s some information about the texts and a special invitation to an extended free trial.) Many are entrepreneurs or business leaders and they understand the importance of sleep and rest if they want to do their best work. These simple steps can help you get more of both.
Over the past few months, college sports have seen conferences shift, rules change, and a 13–0 team get left out of the playoffs. But a potentially larger shake-up is now in the works.
On Tuesday, NCAA President Charlie Baker proposed a plan to create a new tier within Division I college athletics. The groundbreaking proposal gives participating schools autonomy over name, image, and likeness (NIL) decisions and initiates a “long-overdue conversation” about the existing framework for compensating student-athletes.
Schools would be required to invest a minimum of $30,000/year per athlete for at least half of all eligible student-athletes into an “enhanced educational trust fund,” which by most accounts seems like a regular trust fund.
Student-athletes would be allowed to enter NIL deals directly with their schools rather than a third party.
What it means for the future of college sports
Baker’s proposed new tier pertains to “the highest-resourced colleges and universities,” understood to mean the Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and ACC, which contain the largest and wealthiest athletic programs in the US. A new subdivision just for those schools could alleviate headaches around transfer limits, scholarships, and, most importantly, NIL rules.
But…some observers say the proposal still doesn’t address the core issue: employment. The NCAA has lobbied for years to prevent college athletes from being named “employees,” but sports law experts see it as a necessary next step in order to give young athletes a share of the revenue they generate.
The NCAA is going through it. It’s embroiled in multiple legal disputes, including an antitrust lawsuit that could require it to pay billions in damages to student-athletes. There are also talks within the industry of a looming Great Split, in which the Power Five conferences (soon to be Power Four) would secede from the NCAA to form their own organization.—CC
1. NVIDIA Fast -10% Correction….All Gains in First Half of Year…..Last 6 Months Only +16%
2. NVDA vs. INTC/AMD
WSJ Dan Gallagher The past year has certainly made it seem that way, though. Nvidia’s sales have more than doubled—and its market value more than tripled—as major tech companies snapped up the company’s chips to capitalize on the explosive interest in generative AI sparked by the launch of the ChatGPT online chatbot a year ago.
9. Nurse Shortages Are Set to Get Even Worse With Mass US Visa Delays
· Visa backlog indefinitely postpones arrival of 10,000 nurses
· Hospitals were already reeling from labor gaps left by Covid
Bloomberg By Katia DmitrievaErica DeBoer, the chief nurse at America’s largest rural health network, thought she could finally offer some relief for her overworked staff and thousands of patients. More than 160 reinforcement nurses were supposed to arrive over the coming months across Sanford Health’s Midwest facilities from as far away as Manila and Lagos, Nigeria.
But now, only 36 are coming — if they’re lucky.The US is in the midst of a visa retrogression, when a surge in demand collides with annual caps, jamming up the processing queue. The delays are particularly bad for the main visa category that hospitals use. Today, government officials are only just starting to work on filings made two years ago — right around the time when many hospitals began hiring foreign nurses and applying for their visas.Experts estimate that at least 10,000 foreign nurses have been delayed indefinitely — a holdup that’s almost certain to worsen an already dire national shortage. After the pandemic led 100,000 nurses to leave their jobs due to burnout or early retirement, US hospitals looked abroad to fill the gap.
“We just can’t take as many patients,” said DeBoer, a 30-year nursing veteran, who plans to hire pricier contract staff in the short-term and push to see more patients online when possible. Foreign workers were a big part of the strategy to fill 1,000 open nurse roles across Sanford Health in the next few years. “We were counting on those international nurses,” she added.
Yamamoto with Kikue Taira, the younger sister of the world’s oldest ever pair of siblings. Nomoto Shunki, LongeviQuest
Yumi Yamamoto has met Japan’s oldest living people, and her great-grandmother died at 115.
She’s noticed a few things Japanese supercentenarians do which might contribute to their longevity.
She shared these aging secrets with Business Insider, including radio gymnastics.
A longevity researcher who verifies the ages of supercentenarians, and whose great-grandmother lived to the age of 116, shared four aging secrets from the longest-living people in Japan.
Yumi Yamamoto, the Japan research president for LongeviQuest, an organization that validates the ages of the world’s oldest people and collects their stories, has this year verified four supercentenarians, which are those who live past the age of 110. This includes Japan’s oldest person, Fusa Tatsumi, who celebrated her 116th birthday in the spring.
She is also the great-granddaughter of Shigeyo Nakachi, who was the second oldest living person in Japan at the time of her death in 2021.
So, Yamamoto knows a thing or two about longevity, particularly what Japanese people with long lives have in common.
LongeviQuest has verified 269 supercentenarians in Japan, including in Okinawa, one of the world’s five Blue Zones, where an unusually high number of people live to over 100. Like in other Blue Zones, super-agers in Japan tend not to eat much meat and spend lots of time with family.
But superagers in Japan also have longevity-boosting habits which are more specific to the country, which Yamamoto shared with Business Insider.
Eating until they are only 80% full
“There’s a saying in Japanese, which says you should only eat until you’re 80% full, so you should leave space at the end of a meal,” Yamamoto said.
The saying, “hara hachi bu,” helps Japanese people to practice mindful eating and mild calorie restriction, which research suggests reduces inflammation and could be beneficial for longevity according to animal studies, although more research is needed.
The average daily calorie intake of someone from the Okinawa Blue Zone, for instance, is only about 1,900, according to Blue Zones, which is less than the 2,000 calories per day that the US Food and Drug Administration recommends.
Do everything in moderation One of the biggest lessons Yamamoto has learned from her chats with supercentenarians is “don’t do things to excess, instead do all things in moderation.”
For example, Kane Taneka, the oldest recorded Japanese person and second oldest person in recorded history, who lived to 119, enjoyed Coca-Cola, but, Yamamoto said, would only have one bottle a day.
“She wasn’t addicted to it, and she wouldn’t drink to excess. This is something that I think is common in Japan. Japanese people eat in a balanced way and they don’t eat or drink to excess,” she said. “And that goes not just for food and drink, but also things like not staying up all night.
Experts agree that enjoying treats in moderation can make healthy eating more sustainable — an approach dubbed the 80/20 rule.
Radio gymnasticsIn Japan, people take part in what’s known as radio gymnastics, Yamamoto said. Since 1928, a radio broadcast has directed listeners in body weight exercises for five minutes a day, and Yamamoto tries to do radio gymnastics in the mornings just like Japan’s super-agers, she said.Research suggests that doing short bursts of intense physical activity could lower therisk of cancer and heart disease, and therefore improve longevity.
And, as BI previously reported, most Blue Zones superagers don’t go to the gym, and instead incorporate movement into their daily lives — whether that’s by walking, taking the stairs, or doing group sports to combine socializing with exercise.
Straight posture Yamamoto said that her great-grandmother was always very “regimented” in her posture, always maintaining a straight back. “One thing I’ve noticed about Japanese supercentenarians and centenarians is that they’re very disciplined and strict on themselves in terms of straight posture,” she said. “As humans, we will tend to hunch over a little bit as we get older, but very elderly Japanese people, even until old age, will maintain a very straight posture,” she said. Research suggests that a good posture can minimize strain on the body, prevent pain, and help keep it functioning correctly.
Janus Henderson In biotech, many stocks trade at even bigger discounts – by some measures, the biggest we have ever seen. After a record drawdown in 2021 and 2022, small- and mid-cap biotech stocks got caught up in the sell-off of long-duration growth assets as 10-year Treasury yields started to rise in 2023. This is not unusual, as we tend to see biotech underperform amid rising rates, with less focus on stock-specific developments. But some market moves seemed extreme as even positive news – such as one company’s announcement of approval for its new therapy for phosphate management in dialysis – would sometimes result in negative returns.
As such, the S&P Biotechnology Industry Index1, a benchmark of large-cap biotech stocks in the S&P 500® Index, trades at a nearly 25% discount to its 30-year average.2 And the number of development stage biotech firms trading below the value of cash on their balance sheets hit a record high in October (Figure 1).Andy Acker, CFADaniel Lyons, PhD, CFA
Figure 1: Biotech at a discount
The number of biotech companies with negative enterprise value* hit a record high in October.
Source: CapitalIQ, as of 3 November 2023. *Enterprise value is defined as the current market capitalization less the net cash on the balance sheet. A negative enterprise value suggests a company trades for less than the value of its cash.
8. The M2 money supply is in the midst of its longest stagnation since World War II.
Business Insider Professor Siegel -The US money supply is flashing a major warning to the US economy, according to Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel. M2 money supply, which includes cash, checking deposits, and other highly liquid assets, bottomed out around $20.7 trillion in April this year amid aggressive rate hikes, according to Federal Reserve data. That’s a 4% drawdown from the prior all-time-record of $21.7 trillion, which was recorded in 2021. Money supply then rebounded through the summer, but has recently returned to its decline, nearing April’s low.
Nasdaq Dorsey Wright-Historical December Performance Observations:
· The SPX has shown a positive return in December over 75% of the time since 1957. However, the index has been positive in the first half of the month just 59% of the time, compared to almost 79% in the second half.
· The RUT has been positive 75% of the time from 1979 forward, but the small-cap index has been positive only 45% of the time in the first half of the month, compared to 84% in the latter half.
· The SPX has seen the second half of the month outperform the first in 67% of instances.
· The RUT has seen the second half of the month outpace the first in 77% of instances.
Practicing these five powerful tenets of leadership will make you unforgettable to employees and irreplaceable to employers.
BY SCOTT MAUTZ, KEYNOTE SPEAKER AND AUTHOR, ‘FIND THE FIRE’ AND ‘MAKE IT MATTER’@SCOTT_MAUTZ
The thing I wanted more than anything “growing up” as a leader was to be unforgettable to employees–for my impact on their performance, growth, happiness, and life. Did I achieve that status for anyone at all? I can only hope so because I know the impact that unforgettable leaders in my life had.
But alas, probably far too few have truly experienced this.
Research shows that 70 percent of employee engagement can be attributed to the managers or leaders, but only 30 percent of employees are engaged at work. So somebody isn’t doing their job.
In conducting research for Find the Fire, I interviewed or surveyed over 1000 employees and 1000 managers and found that almost 60 percent of employees say that the single biggest thing they want from their boss is for him/her to be inspiring; yet only 11 percent answer in the affirmative when asked if their boss is indeed inspiring.
Furthermore, self-awareness on this front isn’t exactly sky high among the leaders themselves. Leaders gave themselves an average score of seven out of ten for how inspirational they thought they were, while their employees scored them on this trait at an average of four out of ten or lower.
Yup, your boss thinks he’s inspirational like in Good Will Hunting, while you daydream of hunting for another job.
As part of my research, I also sought to determine exactly what makes a leader special; worthy of the status of “the best boss I’ve ever had”. Interestingly, five themes clearly stood out. And they weren’t all touchy-feely in nature but instead mixed things that spoke to delivering a great workplace and great results. Strive to ingrain these five habits and standout as a leader that stands the test of time.
1. Create meaning.
Understand that meaning is what motivates employees in a manner that sustains. Foster meaning through actions such as being clear on the organization’s purpose, encouraging each employee to define the legacy they want to leave behind, and by granting large swaths of autonomy. You also create meaning for employees when you invest in their personal growth and development and help foster their sense of competence and self-esteem.
You can help your employees become better versions of themselves and in so doing become a better version of yourself.
2. Consciously care.
I never said this stuff was rocket-science. And yet over two-thirds of employees say that their boss does not genuinely care about them.
This may be the lowest hanging fruit opportunity on this list. Visibly exude caring, compassion, and concern for employees. Thoughtfully administer rewards and recognition (tailoring to employee preferences for how they like to be rewarded), ensure employees have robust personal growth and development plans, and unswervingly show respect.
3. Decide and communicate the decisions.
Nothing is more crippling to an organization than a leader who can’t or won’t just make the call. Timelines extend unmercifully, costs skyrocket, and parallel paths linger and burn everyone out.
Organizational clarity starts with a leader who not only decides but also invests the time to over-communicate decisions (and the “why” behind those decisions).
As a leader, you can decide to just decide and better yet, enroll key stakeholders in those decisions along the way. People need to weigh before they can buy in, after all. There’s nothing wrong with healthy debate along the way by the way, but then after the debate, it’s time to decide, commit, and communicate the decision.
4. Set a vision and connect the dots.
It’s vital that once-in-a-career leaders set a compelling, inspiring vision that focuses employees and encourages the expenditure of their discretionary energy. It should be a vision grounded in strategic objectives and the values of the company.
When you set such a vision, employees show up with conviction and are passionate about building something together that makes a difference in something that matters. In the absence of a compelling vision, employees can flounder. Think about yourself and what it’s like to work in a place that has no clear, inspiring vision–you feel rudderless.
It’s just as important that the vision is then consistently communicated and that the leader helps each employee understand what their unique role is in delivering the vision.
5. Practice “relaxed intensity.”
This means having a very intentional balance of the seriousness and commitment it takes to win with the camaraderie and fun it takes to win on a sustained basis.
As a leader, you can role-model relaxed intensity by visibly having fun at work and being authentic and approachable while at the same time having a fierce desire to win, beat the competition, surpass goals, and continually improve.
You certainly don’t want to be too much of one or the other. I’ve been in organizations that were all intensity and no fun as well as places that were all fun but didn’t have enough underlying drive to succeed. Not good.
Being thought of as a once-in-a-career leader is a high bar to clear. So set a clear path for building these habits into your daily leadership routine.
@callumthomas Next Year: As we’re soon headed into election year it’s worth highlighting an interesting stat — returns historically were positive 83% of the time during presidential election years (and 4 out of the past 24 election years were negative, i.e. 17%). Again, the odds are with you, but remember it’s a statistical observation of the past… and there is nothing to preclude 2024 becoming the 5th. But still, interesting.
2. REITS +18% Off Lows
VNQ Vanguard REIT closes above 200-day moving average
3. MEME Stocks Back in the Mix
GS Meme basket up double the QQQ in November.
4. Best Performers in November.
Bespoke Investment Group Below are the 30 stocks that rose the most in November. For each name, we also include its market cap, its year-to-date total return, its distance from its 52-week high, and short interest as a percentage of float. As shown, buy-now-pay-later company Affirm (AFRM) was up the most in November with a huge gain of 95.4%, followed by streaming company Roku (ROKU), crypto-trading platform Coinbase (COIN), and digital payments company Block (SQ). Are we back in late 2020/early 2021??
BloombergSunil Jagtiani and Suvashree Ghosh The crypto industry is also awaiting the outcome of applications from the likes of BlackRock Inc. to start the first US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Bloomberg Intelligence expects a batch of these products to win Securities & Exchange Commission approval by January.
9. ‘We’re killing the youth of America’: calls grow for crackdown on US gambling
Worries that gambling addiction has spiked in the US as legal sports betting booms have led to calls for increased regulationCallum Jones in New York
The United States is heading into a “quagmire, if not crisis” of gambling addiction among young people, according to counselors and clinicians – prompting calls for a regulatory crackdown.
Treatment clinics are grappling with an influx of patients in their teens and early 20s and helplines are reporting record levels of calls.
“There’s a lot of kids that are gambling,” said Felicia Grondin, executive director of the Council on Compulsive Gambling of New Jersey.
Ironically, New Jersey was the state that led the charge for the legalization of sports betting and, in 2018, successfully convinced the supreme court to overturn a decades-old federal law that prohibited the state from legalizing sports betting.
Requests for support through New Jersey’s helpline more than doubled over the ensuing years, as the legal market ballooned. Hundreds of calls from concerned relatives each year have heightened fears in the state that problem gambling is sweeping through a new generation. It is not unique.
“Calls to gambling helplines in most states in America are up, by sheer numbers,” said Timothy Fong, co-director of the gambling studies program at UCLA. “More and more younger clients” – aged 25 and under – are seeking treatment, he added.
Arnie Wexler, a counselor, has not seen anything like this before. “We’re killing the youth of America. It’s gotten crazy. Nobody cares,” he said.
Gambling gets younger
Placing a bet in the US has never been easier. Access to legal gambling, once confined to casinos and racetracks, now sits in millions of pockets across the country. Smartphones “made all avenues available to all people”, said Brad Ruderman, of the Beit T’Shuvah treatment center in Los Angeles, California. “This is the first generation where this is normal.”
While you are required to be 21 to bet on sports in most states in which it is legal, or 18 to take part in fantasy contests in much of the US, underage activity is a cause of mounting unease. When Keith Whyte, executive director at the National Council on Problem Gambling, asked a room of 40 17-year-old boys in Virginia earlier this year how many had a sports betting app on their phone, 36 hands rose.
The US is now headed into more of a gambling addiction quagmire, if not crisis
In memory of one of my heroes, Charlie Munger, who passed away this week.
1. “I think a life properly lived is just learn, learn, learn all the time.”
— Charlie Munger
2. “You should never, when faced with one unbelievable tragedy, let one tragedy increase into two or three because of a failure of will.”
— Charlie Munger
3. “Spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up. Discharge your duties faithfully and well. Systematically you get ahead, but not necessarily in fast spurts. Nevertheless, you build discipline by preparing for fast spurts. Slug it out one inch at a time, day by day. At the end of the day – if you live long enough – most people get what they deserve.”
— Charlie Munger
4. “It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.”
— Charlie Munger
5. “Take a simple idea, and take it seriously.”
— Charlie Munger
6. “I see people rise in life who are not the smartest, sometimes not even the most diligent, but they are learning machines. They go to bed every night a little wiser than they were when they got up and boy does that help.”
— Charlie Munger
7. “I didn’t get to where I am by going after mediocre opportunities.”
— Charlie Munger
8. “I want to think about things where I have an advantage over others. I don’t want to play a game where people have an advantage over me. I don’t play in a game where other people are wise and I am stupid. I look for a game where I am wise, and they are stupid. And believe me, it works better. God bless our stupid competitors. They make us rich.”
— Charlie Munger
9. “I am not smart enough to make decisions with no time to think. I make actual decisions very rapidly, but that’s because I have spent so much time preparing ourselves by quietly reading.”
3. AGG Bond Index on Track for Best Month Since 1980s
Dave Lutz Jones Trading The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate bond index is up 4.8% in price this month. That puts the widely tracked index on course for its best month since the 1980s, according to FactSet data, after a sharp unwinding of rate-hike expectations sent investors on a bond-buying spree.
4. Massive Flows Helped Drive Down Yields Increase Return.
A bond exchange-traded fund crossed $100 billion for the first time since such products launched over two decades ago.
A $14 million inflow Wednesday pushed assets in the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (ticker BND) above $100 billion for the first time ever, data compiled by Bloomberg show. BND has absorbed $15.6 billion so far this year.
Torsten Slok, Ph.D. Apollo-Since the Fed started raising rates, small businesses have seen a trend decline in earnings and sales, see chart below. This is what the textbook would have predicted. Higher costs of capital weigh on small cap companies with high leverage, low coverage ratios, and weak or no earnings. With the Fed keeping rates high at least until the middle of 2024, we should expect these trends to continue.
10. This Is Your Brain on Junk Food
Food for Thought: Ultra-processed foods:
Psychology Today Diet influences mood and cognition, for better or for worse. Scott C. Anderson
KEY POINTS
Junk food is low on fiber, disrupting the gut microbiome.
A dysbiotic gut can lead to inflammation.
You can help fix gut-brain problems by reducing processed food and eating fiber-filled vegetables instead.
Many highly processed foods are potentially dangerous, partly because they disregard the fate of gut microbes. It is pure folly to ignore those microbes, especially since they are so crucial to our physical and mental health. How important?
A new study from Tufts University, supported by the Rockefeller Foundation, says that better diets “could avert approximately 1.6 million hospitalizations and result in an estimated net savings of $13.6 billion in health care costs in the first year alone.”
The microbes in your gut differ from mine, and they vary daily. The diversity of gut microbes gives rise to an astonishing number of genes, outnumbering our genes by a factor of 100.
Good bacteria produce nourishing substances that feed and heal the cells lining your gut. If you don’t support those good bacteria, your gut cells may become hungry and disease-prone. Your gut may become leaky enough to allow bacteria and toxins to pass through.
Once bacteria breach the gut lining, the heart will pump them to every organ in your body, including your brain. This can lead to depression, anxiety, paranoia, psychosis, cognitive difficulties, and dementia.
What Is Processed Food? The term “processed” as applied to food can be confusing. A lot of processed foods are perfectly healthy. Shelled nuts, for instance, are processed to remove an inedible shell.
Other foods are so highly processed that it’s difficult to identify the source material. Think of cheese puffs, twinkies, or vegan burgers. Delicious, yes, but what are they made of?
These foodstuffs can be problematic since one of the first steps in processing them is to remove the fiber. After all, the thinking goes, fiber is indigestible and makes products brown. Take the fiber out, and you have beautiful white foods that are easy to color any way you wish.
But fiber, an important macronutrient, is meant for your gut microbes, not you. That single elimination may be the worst thing that has happened to our diet over the last 60 years. Our gut microbes are changing composition, and some species are even becoming extinct.
There’s more: Processed foods often contain emulsifiers, which improve texture, extend shelf life, and keep ingredients mixed. Some of them, like carboxymethylcellulose and polysorbate 80, can significantly impact intestinal microbiota and lead to gut inflammation. Modern diets are failing us.
Major Macronutrients
There are thousands of nutrients in food that are good for you, but we can classify them into four broad categories. Let’s imagine a food called EquiStuff made with equal amounts of each macronutrient:
Fiber: 25 percent
Fat: 25 percent
Protein: 25 percent
Carbs: 25 percent
Now take out the fiber to improve taste and texture:
Fat: 33 percent
Protein: 33 percent
Carbs: 33 percent
Notice what just happened. By the magic of math, the fat and carb content went from 25 percent of the food to 33 percent. Let’s keep going and take the fat out of EquiStuff. Now we have:
Protein: 50 percent
Carbs: 50 percent
Again, we didn’t set out to do this, but the carbs in EquiStuff have gone from 25 percent to 50 percent. By taking out two macronutrients, we doubled the carbs.
Thus, you don’t need to add carbs like sugar to make something sweeter. Remove the fat and fiber, and the job is done for you. But sadly, sugar is not good for a balanced gut microbiome.
Affects to Your Brain-Your diet and intestines have a clear connection, but how does that affect your brain?
Amazingly, bacteria in your gut can produce neurotransmitters, including dopamine and serotonin. These can communicate with your brain via the vagus nerve.
These neurotransmitters are the same ones targeted by psychoactive drugs, so these microbes may be just as effective as Prozac but without the side effects.
On the downside, a leaky gut caused by sugar-pumped pathogens can lead to systemic inflammation. Over time, that can adversely affect our cognition and mood.
There are several more channels of communication between the gut and the brain, but these two are extremely important from a dietary point of view.
What You Can Do-The good news is that you can fix gut-brain problems by cutting back on processed food and replacing it with fiber-filled veggies, like onions, broccoli, artichokes, and beans. Good fiber and beneficial bacteria sources can be found in ferments like sauerkraut, kimchee, kefir, and yogurt. If you can’t flip the script, try probiotic or prebiotic fiber supplements to give you a concentrated dose of the good stuff.
This isn’t an all-or-none life change. But every step you take toward increasing fiber in your diet is a step toward rejuvenating your gut bacteria. Your microbes will make you feel better in return.
We can’t change the genes we were born with, but we can change our microbial genes. That provides a powerful lever to lift our health and our mood.
Jim Reid Deutsche Bank-So 2024 will be a big change from 2023. Clearly many elections will be relatively routine affairs, but as we saw from the Dutch election last week, there can be surprises.
The mains ones to watch are:
The US Presidential Election in November. A Trump victory, assuming he is the Republican nominee, plus a Republican sweep in Congress, could bring substantive policy changes.
The Taiwanese election in January 2024 could help shape US-China relations over the next few years.
European Parliamentary elections in June. Given the relatively high polling numbers for the far right across parts of Europe and the recent Dutch result, this election could test the capacity of the traditional mainstream parties to maintain a majority and the Commission’s ability to push further EU integration, such as with the “open strategic autonomy” agenda.
Indian elections in April/May. Political stability is behind our view that their economy will double in size out to 2030.
So stand by for the busiest political year ever.
9. Median U.S. Family Home Prices Fell a Record Amount in October
1. Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index Loosening.
The Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index is a weighted average of short-term interest rates, long-term interest rates, the trade-weighted dollar, an index of credit spreads, and the ratio of equity prices to the 10-year average of earnings per share.
@Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm)Untightening: A big driver of the gains from the October lows has been the substantial easing of financial conditions (thanks to lower bond yields, lower oil prices, weaker USD, tighter credit spreads). In this respect there is a fundamental aspect to it, but how much further can things ease on this front?
Dave Lutz Jones Trading Amazon has grabbed the crown of biggest delivery business in the U.S., surpassing both UPS and FedEx in parcel volumes. The Seattle e-commerce giant delivered more packages to U.S. homes in 2022 than UPS, after eclipsing FedEx in 2020, and it is on track to widen the gap this year, according to internal Amazon data and people familiar with the matter, WSJ reports.
AMZN vs. UPS Chart
4. The United States is Producing the Most Crude Oil Ever…..and We are the World’s Biggest Producer by a Long-Shot
Stat: The US is now producing more crude oil than ever—13.2 million barrels per day, per the Energy Information Administration, topping the pre-Covid peak of 13.1 million. That copious amount is nearly double the volume from a decade ago and up from the ~5 million produced when Obama entered the White House, Bloomberg’s Steven Dennis points out. The US is the world’s largest oil producer by a country mile, accounting for 21% of global oil production in 2022. Saudi Arabia is in second place, at 13%. Morningbrew https://www.morningbrew.com/daily
6. Russell 3000 Biggest 2023 Winners are Still in Multi-Year Downturns
Bespoke Investment Group-The problem with some of this year’s big winners is that they’re still down significantly from highs made a couple years ago. For example, below is a list of stocks that are up more than 100% this year but still down at least 25% over the last two years. If you managed to buy these names in early 2023, congrats. If you bought them towards the end of 2021, however, you’re still not even close to getting back to even.
There’s nothing wrong with wanting to be liked at work. According to Tim Sanders, author of The Likeability Factor: How to Boost Your L-Factor and Achieve Your Life’s Dreams when your colleagues, direct reports and bosses like you, you have a better chance of getting promoted, being assigned special projects that interest you, having people go above and beyond for you, getting timely responses and feedback, and having the kind of social capital that you draw on to get what you want and need from others.
When it comes at the expense of being respected. According to scientist Cameron Anderson of the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley, overall happiness in life is related to how much you are respected by those around you. Nevertheless, when we sacrifice what it takes to be respected for the quicker, and often easier, win of feeling liked, we lose out on the benefits that respect yields.
Like what? Like greater enjoyment and satisfaction with their jobs, more focus and prioritization, increased sense of meaning and significance, better health and well-being, and more feelings of trust and safety, and increased engagement.
Professionals who want (and often need) to feel liked tend to:
Use information as leverage, withholding or giving it away
Give people tasks they enjoy rather than assignments that stretch and challenge them
Focus more on how people feel (in general, and about them personally) than about achieving outcomes
Professionals who recognize the importance of being respected — with or without being liked — are more inclined to:
Tell the truth, even if it’s unpopular
Explain their thinking behind the difficult decisions they make
Acknowledge the elephant in the room, even if they can’t fix it
Say no when they need to
Be open-minded and decisive
Give credit when it’s due to others and also take it when it’s due themselves
Tolerate feelings of disappointment, frustration, sadness and anger in themselves and others
Hold people accountable for their results
Be consistent and fair in setting rules and expectations
Set and honor boundaries for themselves and others
Deliver negative feedback directly and in a timely manner
Ask for feedback regularly and then act on it
Apologize when they make mistakes and then move on
Model the behavior they expect from others
For professionals who want to grow in their roles and careers, being liked is good, but being respected is a requirement. As Margaret Thatcher once remarked, “If you just set out to be liked, you would be prepared to compromise on anything at any time, and you would achieve nothing.”
Cresset Jack Ablin Of the S&P ‘s 503 companies, 308 are trading more than 20 per cent below their peak: they represent 38 per cent of the blue-chip Index’s market cap. Nearly half of Index constituents are off more than 30 per cent from their peak. While deteriorating growth is not a bullish catalyst, most stocks appear to have already priced in a recession.
Do you have an uncle who believes vaccines cause autism but refuses to study the reams of research showing them to be safe? What about a friend who avoids information about factory animal farming so they can eat cheap meat guilt-free? Or how about that CEO who claims their business is ethically minded, yet doesn’t investigate its supply chain for exploitation of the environment or the impoverished?
Each is an example of what psychologists call willful ignorance — the intentional act of avoiding information that reveals the negative consequences of one’s actions. Not to judge: We all have a place in our lives where we look the other way and pretend everything is fine. It may be personal, political, or professional in nature, but just below the conscious surface, we know our actions don’t align with our stated values.
“Examples [of] willful ignorance abound in everyday life,” Linh Vu, a doctoral candidate at the University of Amsterdam, said. “We wanted to know just how prevalent and how harmful willful ignorance is, as well as why people engage in it.”
To find out, Vu and a team of researchers performed the first meta-analysis on the current empirical evidence of willful ignorance, and it was published in the Psychological Bulletin, a peer-reviewed journal published by the American Psychological Association. They compared the results of 22 studies with a total of more than 6,000 participants. Here’s what they found.
Moral wiggle room
The classic experiment for studying willful ignorance is known as the moral wiggle room task. It was designed by Jason Dana, an associate professor of marketing and management at Yale. Participants are randomly assigned the role of decision-maker or recipient. The decision-maker is given a choice: They can take either a $5 or $6 payout. If they take the $5 payout, the recipient will receive $5 as well. If they take the $6 payout, the recipient will receive $1.
When provided with this information by a researcher, the majority of decision-makers act altruistically. They sacrifice the slightly larger payout for themselves to give the recipient more money. On average, only about a quarter of decision-makers act selfishly. But this full-information condition is simply the control. The experiment really begins when the researchers become less forthcoming.
In the experimental condition, the decision-makers can still choose between the $5 or $6 payouts, but this time they are not told what the recipient will receive. There’s a 50-50 chance the recipient will receive $5 or $1. Importantly, the decision-makers can ask the researchers what payout the recipient will receive, and they can do so at no cost to themselves. In other words, while the decision-makers start out blind to the consequences of their actions, they don’t have to stay that way if they don’t want to.
In Dana’s original 2007 study, 44% of decision-makers in the experimental condition chose to remain willfully ignorant and took the selfish option.
Some studies in the meta-analysis were variations on this original design. For instance, one version of the game included ultimatum bargaining where the recipient could accept or reject the decision-maker’s offer. If they reject it, both participants walk away empty-handed. Another version had group members vote on payouts for the group and an unknown recipient.
But across all the studies, the researchers found Dana’s original split to be fairly consistent. On average, 40% of people chose not to learn about the consequences of their actions, and such ignorance was associated with less altruism compared to those who became informed.
Ignorance as an excuse
The researchers hypothesized two potential motivations for willful ignorance. First, they thought willful ignorance may offer a built-in excuse for not acting generously. If a person doesn’t know the consequences of their actions, the internal logic goes, then they still can consider themselves a morally upstanding individual even if they decide to act selfishly. Willful ignorance serves to protect their self-image.
The second potential motivation is known as “cognitive inattentiveness.” That is, people dislike thinking more than they have to. It may stem from laziness, not paying attention, or not wanting to take the time to learn more. Whatever the case, they favor the quick-and-easy decision — even if they would have acted altruistically had they been informed upfront.
To test this, the researchers compared the choices of participants who chose to inform themselves with those who learned about the consequences by default. The researchers reasoned that if the driver was cognitive inattentiveness, then the percentage of altruism would be roughly the same between the two.
On the other hand, if those who chose to learn about the consequences acted more generously, this would suggest that those informed by default would have “self-selected” to remain ignorant if given the option. And that’s what they found. Across the studies, participants who chose to be informed of the consequences were 7% more likely to make the altruistic choice.
Being righteous is often costly, demanding people to give up their time, money, and effort. Ignorance offers an easy way out.
Shaul Shalvi
“The findings are fascinating as they suggest a lot of the altruistic behaviors we observe are driven by a desire to behave as others expect us to,” Shaul Shalvi, co-author and a professor of behavioral ethics at the University of Amsterdam, said in a statement.
He added: “A part of the reasons why people act altruistically is due to societal pressures as well as their desire to view themselves in a good light. Since being righteous is often costly, demanding people to give up their time, money, and effort. Ignorance offers an easy way out.”
With that said, the analysis couldn’t eliminate cognitive inattentiveness as a potential motivation. In fact, willful ignorance could be the cumulative effect of many motivations, including those not considered in the meta-analysis, such as reputation. The data simply suggest that maintaining a positive self-image is one of those motivations.
The Enron Complex as seen at night. After the Enron scandal came to light in 2001, CEO Jeffrey Skilling mounted a legal defense of willful ignorance. He claimed he remained unaware of the corporation’s fraudulent practices. It didn’t work, and he was found guilty of conspiracy, securities fraud, and other charges in 2006. (Credit: eflon / Flickr)
A little less ignorant about willful ignorance
The meta-analysis does have limitations that should be mentioned. To start, participants overwhelmingly came from Europe and the U.S., meaning the results may not be replicated in other cultures. The studies also looked at willful ignorance in the lab versus actual decisions in the real world. Finally, they focused on discrete tasks, meaning they were only performed once. It’s possible that continuous rounds of give-and-take between decision-maker and recipient would yield different results (like in many game theory games).
Still, the authors conclude that “taken together, the aggregate evidence suggests ignorance is indeed in part ‘willful’ and driven by excuse-seeking and self-image maintenance motives.” Thanks to them, we are all a little less ignorant about ignorance.
Alpha Architect Blog Larry Swedroe on Stock Market Concentration
Consider that as of October 6, 2023, while the iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF (IWF) had a P/E of 24.2 and Vanguard’s S&P 500 ETF (VOO) had a P/E of 20, the P/E of the Vanguard Russell 1000 Value ETF (VONV) was 15, the P/E of the Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF (VTWO) was 13.3, and the P/E of the Vanguard Russell 2000 Value ETF (VTWV) was just 10.5. Now consider the P/Es of the magnificent seven: Apple, 29.8; Amazon, 100.7; Microsoft, 33.8; Nvidia, 110.5; Alphabet, 29.4; Tesla, 73.8; and Meta Platforms, 36.8. That’s an average P/E of 59.3.
One of my favorite expressions is that what you don’t know about investing is the investment history you don’t know. With that in mind, let’s review the list of the 10 largest stocks by market cap in the S&P 500 Index at the turn of the century. They were Microsoft, Cisco Systems, Exxon Mobil, Intel, Citigroup, IBM, General Electric, Oracle, and Home Depot. From January 2000 through September 2023, Vanguard’s 500 Index Fund (VFINX) returned 6.5% per annum. How did the top 10 perform?
Microsoft: 9.5%
Cisco Systems: 1.6%
Exxon Mobil: 7.9%
Intel:1.7%
Citigroup: -7.1%
IBM: 3.8%
General Electric: -1.8%
Oracle: 6.6%
Home Depot: 8.6%
AT&T: 1.4%
The average return to the 10 largest stocks in the S&P 500 Index from January 2000 through September 2023 was just 3.2%, underperforming the index itself by 3.3 percentage points. Because these were the largest stocks, the underperformance relative to the remaining 490 stocks was even worse. Investors in the top 10 stocks took a much greater degree of idiosyncratic risk and earned lower returns. Forewarned is forearmed.
3. U.S. Bank Stocks at Record Low Valuation vs. S&P
4. Banks Ongoing Headwinds.
Torsten Slok, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Partner-Eight months after the SVB collapse, large banks continue to enjoy significantly lower funding costs and, hence, higher profit margins than regional banks, see the first chart below.
With ongoing headwinds from CRE holdings, the held-to-maturity book, and regulatory uncertainty, it is going to take some time for regional banks to repair their balance sheets. This continues to be a macro problem, because banks number 5 to 4000 by assets make up 60% of all assets in the banking sector see also the second chart showing the ongoing sharp slowdown in bank lending.
5. Interest Rate on U.S. Debt Up $924 billion in 12 Months.
When Debt Matters
When interest rates were at record lows in 2020, many said that the exploding National Debt “didn’t matter” because servicing that debt was costing us very little.
Fast forward to today and few are making that same argument, as National Debt has continued to increase (now at $33.7 trillion) and the average interest rate on that debt has moved substantially higher.
The result: the Interest Expense on US Public Debt has now moved up to $924 billion over the last 12 months, another record high. If it continues to increase at the current pace it will soon be the largest line item in the Federal budget, surpassing Social Security.
6. Argentina About to Make New Highs on Milei Presidential Victory
10. The False Picture on How Success Happens-The Daily Stoic Blog
We have a false picture about how success happens. We often only see the results and almost never the process of things, so we tend to think that the finished product—a book, being in shape, being wise—is impressive, and therefore the process by which that event was created must have been equally brilliant.
In fact, it’s not.
All success happens the same way: “action by action,” as Marcus said. Just after the release of Metallica’s eleventh album, Metallica’s Lars Ulrich explained the simple secret to their high output:
“I wish I could romanticize it, and tell you that we’re sitting down and there’s a destination, but it’s basically just work. You write one song, then you write another song and eventually you’ve got an album.”
This is what the Stoics believe too. That the little things add up to make the big things. This is what Zeno meant when he said, “Well-being is realized by small steps but is truly no small thing.” And what Seneca meant when he wrote, “Each day, acquire something that will fortify you against poverty, against death, indeed against other misfortunes, as well and after you have run over many thoughts, select one to be thoroughly digested that day.”
One gain per day. That’s it. It’s not romantic. It’s basically just work.
2. Another New Record in U.S. Equity Concentration….5 Stocks 70% of Nasdaq Gains.
3. Quant Traders Covered Shorts Tuesday.
Marketwatch..Who were the big buyers of Tuesday’s stock rally? Vanda Research says institutional buyers stepped in for fatigued retail traders, specifically “systematic strategies being forced to cover their short positions.” Vanda Research Systematic traders make use of factors such as quantitative models, historical data and technical indicators to figure out when to get in and out of trades. The Vanda team also says discretionary hedge funds have also been buying up some excess tech stock supply out there, and that may also help draw in retail investors ahead of seasonal tailwinds.
4 . Last Week I Showed Office Transactions -84% ….Real Estate Sector vs. S&P All-Time Low…..REITS Now Only 5% of S&P
REIT Sector Rallies to 200-Day Moving Average
5. U.S. Dollar Fails at Previous Highs.
6. What is an AI Fund? What are the Holdings?
State Street
7. Tesla is down since it joined S&P 500
Barrons Tesla’s (ticker: TSLA) truly terrible performance since being added to the index is something that deserves much more attention. I hadn’t realized how wild Tesla’s ride has been for long-term S&P 500 fund investors—including me—until a recent conversation I had with Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices. During our talk in early November, Silverblatt mentioned that Tesla’s share price was below what it had been when it first joined the S&P 500 in late 2020. I found that hard to believe—but when I hunted up some numbers, I saw that Silverblatt was right. According to Silverblatt’s numbers, the S&P 500 had a total return—price gains plus reinvested dividends—of 27.02% from the time Tesla joined the index through Nov. 15. Because Tesla doesn’t pay a dividend, its return during that period was a mere 4.82%—the increase in its share price over that period. (After a bad day on Nov. 16, its return had fallen to 0.08%.) By Allan Sloan
2. The Nasdaq Averages a -10% Correction Every 175 Days.
Nasdaq Dorsey Wright The Nasdaq 100 Index NDX fell into correction territory on Thursday as it closed lower than 10% off the 15,841 high seen in mid-July. We have seen NDX fall over 4.5% in the past week alone, and it has declined more than 2% in back-to-back weeks for the first time since December 2022. This 10% correction comes 303 calendar days after the last 10% correction was reached on December 27, 2022, which is quite a long gap based on historical averages. Going back to 1992, we see a 10% correction in the NDX every 175 days on average, with a median gap of about 110 days between such events. That average equates to roughly two 10% corrections experienced each year. Of course, some years have far more than that, with nine corrections events seen in 2000 and four events seen last year in 2022.
The current correction has also been more drawn out than normal. We typically see the peak-to-trough decline in prior correction events take 46 days on average, while the current correction has already taken 100 days. Past corrections show an average pullback-to-trough timeframe of 21 days, with a median of 11 days. If we hold those historical norms, that will see NDX put in at least a near-term bottom before we see family for Thanksgiving.
3. Software ETF -17% from Highs
4. 20-Year Treasury New Lows…Inflows Massive.
5. Fund Managers Consensus is Lower Rates 2024
6. UPS Chart Heading into Holiday Season.
7. Cryptocurrency: Crypto trading volumes have dropped globally across all exchanges this year.
@Charlie Bilello Fast forward to today and that game has ended in tears for anyone that bought in the summer of 2022 with the expectation of selling to a greater fool.
The average price of a used Tesla is now $28k lower than the peak price in July 2022, a 41% decline. Cars are once again a depreciating asset.
9. White House opens $45 billion in federal funds to developers to covert offices to homes
Morningstar By Joy Wiltermuth
Biden administration turns to developers to help ease U.S. housing crisis
The White House kicked off a multiagency push on Friday to help finance real-estate developers convert more office buildings in big cities emptied by the pandemic into affordable housing, taking aim at the nation’s housing crisis.
The initiative looks to harness an existing $35 billion in low-cost loans already available through the Transportation Department to fund housing developments near transit hubs, folding it into the Biden administration’s clean energy push.
It also opens up additional funding sources and tax incentives, offering a new guidebook to 20 different federal programs that can be tapped by developers and offers technical assistance in what can end up being tricky and expensive conversions.
A third peg of the program will see the federal government draw up a public list of buildings it owns that could be made available for sale to help bolster development.
“These downtowns and central business districts that we are taking about today often already designed and orientated around public transit,” said Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, in a press briefing. “Our intention is to make the most of this opportunity to add more housing near transit in ways that not only reduces the cost of housing, but also often reduces the cost of transportation.”
National office vacancies have neared 25%, versus 8% in Europe, according to Savills, a real-estate firm. Vacancy rates in hard-hit cities like San Francisco have gone even higher, setting fresh records as property values plunge and more owners default on their mortgage loans.
“The only thing that is missing today is a lack of financing,” said Nathan Berman, a founding principal of Metro Loft, a go-to firm for New York City office-to-residential conversions that helped transform lower Manhattan in the past 20 years.
The heart of many cities in the wake of the COVID crisis are littered with sparsely populated office buildings available at bargain basement prices. But Berman told MarketWatch that financing has all but stalled for conversions. “It’s really interest rates that are killing everything.”
Borrowing costs have shot up since the Federal Reserve began raising rates last year to fight inflation, resulting in a credit crunch on building owners with debt coming due. Companies also remain unsure about how much space they need, or what they’re willing to pay for it.
Read: More office zombies? Only 11% of maturing loans repay in September, Moody’s Analytics says
In Washington, D.C., where the federal government has a major office footprint, years of remote federal work have been a key source of industry angst. Government efforts to breath new life into obsolete buildings by turning them into rentals could be a rare redevelopment opportunity, as MarketWatch reported in August.
See: White House wants federal workers back in the office in September
The federal government owns about 1,500 office buildings nationally and had leases on almost 200 million square feet of additional space as of April, according to Barclays analysts, who said in a recent report that much of that office space was underused.
The new White House effort, in addition to DOT funding, will give developers access to $10 billion in funds allocated to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development’s community development block grant program.
“With a shortage of millions of homes nationwide, we need to utilize every resource at our disposal to increase housing supply, which in turn, given the high demand, will help with rent levels and purchase costs,” said Adrianne Todman, HUD deputy secretary, during the press briefing.
Related: San Francisco’s push to turn office buildings into homes hinges on this simple idea
-Joy Wiltermuth
This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
10. Life Lessons From Byron Wien-RIP to Wall Street Legend
Network intensely. Luck plays a big role in life, and there is no better way to increase your luck than by knowing as many people as possible. Nurture your network by sending articles, books and emails to people to show you’re thinking about them. Write op-eds and thought pieces for major publications. Organize discussion groups to bring your thoughtful friends together.
When you meet someone new, treat that person as a friend. Assume he or she is a winner and will become a positive force in your life. Most people wait for others to prove their value. Give them the benefit of the doubt from the start. Occasionally you will be disappointed, but your network will broaden rapidly if you follow this path.
Read all the time. Don’t just do it because you’re curious about something, read actively. Have a point of view before you start a book or article and see if what you think is confirmed or refuted by the author. If you do that, you will read faster and comprehend more.
Get enough sleep. Seven hours will do until you’re 60, eight from 60 to 70, nine thereafter, which might include eight hours at night and a one-hour afternoon nap.
Travel extensively. Try to get everywhere before you wear out. Attempt to meet local interesting people where you travel and keep in contact with them throughout your life. See them when you return to a place.
On philanthropy, try to relieve pain rather than spread joy. Music, theater and art museums have many affluent supporters, give the best parties and can add to your social luster in a community. They don’t need you. Social service, hospitals and educational institutions can make the world a better place and help the disadvantaged make their way toward the American dream.
The hard way is always the right way. Never take shortcuts, except when driving home from the Hamptons. Shortcuts can be construed as sloppiness, a career killer.
Don’t try to be better than your competitors, try to be different. There is always going to be someone smarter than you, but there may not be someone who is more imaginative.
When seeking a career as you come out of school or making a job change, always take the job that looks like it will be the most enjoyable.If it pays the most, you’re lucky. If it doesn’t, take it anyway, I took a severe pay cut to accept each of the two best jobs I’ve ever had, and they both turned out to be exceptionally rewarding financially.
Never retire. If you work forever, you can live forever. I know there is an abundance of biological evidence against this theory, but I’m going with it anyway.
Nasdaq Dorsey Wright Headline and Core CPI inflation lower than expected Today’s inflation data was exactly what the Fed and markets were looking for.
Both headline and core CPI inflation came in lower than expected, solidifying market expectations that the Fed’s rate hike cycle is over and more cuts are on tap than the Fed projects, which is a boost to markets.
Headline inflation fell to 3.2% YoY from 3.7% (chart below, orange line) and core slipped to 4.0% YoY from 4.1% (blue line). From here, many economists expect inflation to approach the Fed’s 2% target around mid-2024 (dashed arrows).
Advisor Perspectives Blog-Gasoline Prices Have Now Fallen for 8 Straight Weeksby Jennifer Nash, 11/14/23
Gas prices have now fallen for 8 straight weeks, the longest streak of the year. As of November 13, the price of regular and premium gas each fell by 5 cents from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for regular at $5.00 and Texas has the cheapest at $2.73.
Currently, the national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline stands at $3.35, with premium gasoline averaging $4.26 per gallon. One year ago, regular gas was priced at $3.76 per gallon, while premium gas was at $4.62 per gallon.
Zerohedge Blog According to real estate specialist Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), office vacancy rates are higher than ever, reaching 21 percent in the U.S. and Canada in Q3 2023 and 16 percent globally, i.e. in the 100+ markets analyzed by JLL Research. In both cases, that’s an increase of 60 percent compared to pre-pandemic vacancy rates, which stood at 13 and 10 percent in North America and globally in Q3 2019, respectively.
As a rule, organizations in their early stages are highly creative and have few rules or low rule density. They might have a rule guiding everything they do in the business, such as “We want to make the customer happy.”
This makes sense in these early days because the goal is to do everything possible to survive.
As companies scale, rules and bureaucracy come into play to keep things organized. The catch is that entrepreneurs tend to hate rules–which is why most organizations find themselves at a crossroads if they continue to scale.
There has been a lot of research on the concept of complex adaptive systems. These systems that can adapt and evolve embrace both rules and creativity.
Think about it: there are areas in every organization where rules make sense. You need stability and predictability, like making monthly payrolls and ensuring books are accurate. That’s why departments like HR, accounting, and even operations rely heavily on rules. In the complex system of a human being, the comparison might be things that need to happen all the time and automatically, like breathing.
But we also know what happens when rules dominate everything: it squeezes out the creativity that is vital for the organization to move ahead innovatively. The hard can push out the soft.
For example, if you want your marketing team to develop creative and innovative campaigns for your products and services, you can’t load them up with rules. The same goes for product development. You want them to think far less about following the rules and more about breaking them in search of new ideas.
The goal, therefore, is to find that balance where your organization can adapt and grow.
The role of the leader
As a leader, you should strike that balance between rules and creativity. And it’s that zone where opposing forces meet and conflict often occurs.
You can imagine a scenario where your sales team is chasing a big $20 million deal, and they neglected to file their expense report on time–which infuriates the accounting team. What do you do? Which is more critical in this scenario: the sales team chasing the big deal or following the rules when it comes to expense reports?
Another example: When I was running an early-stage company that was scaling fast, one of my administrative leaders devised a plan to write a 50-page employee handbook with rules defining everything everyone had to do in the company.
But I saw this kind of project as a slippery slope to becoming a rules-based business at a time when we were trying to adapt and survive. So I nixed the employee handbook project in favor of a much simpler concept: our one rule was that every employee was expected to “Behave like an adult professional.” That’s it. Simple, and it provided a tremendous guiding principle for us as we continued to grow and scale the business over the next few years. I knew that eventually, we would need to add rules as the organization scaled, but that would happen after we had refined and grown the business.
The trick, again, is balance. Low rule density when you are seeking innovation, and higher rule density when you are looking for predictability.
Adapting to the future
Every organization will face this conflict between following rules and breaking the rules in search of creativity and innovation. And the truth is, you need both. But the laws of nature tend to lead to the hard rules pushing out the soft creative ones over time. Don’t let it happen in your organization. When too many rules creep into your organization, you risk losing your ability to adapt to the future.
Nasdaq Dorsey Wright -The Nasdaq 100 Index NDX has shown sharp improvement over the past couple of weeks, rising by almost 10% from its October 26 closing low after posting a gain in 10 out of the past 11 trading days. This includes a 9-day consecutive rally streak that saw NDX rise over 8.5% before showing a slight decline on Thursday. While the Nasdaq 100 Index has seen more than its fair share of improvement this year, it is rare to see 9 positive days in a row for the growth benchmark. There have only been 12 other periods dating back to December 1992 where NDX has risen for at least 9 consecutive trading days. The last occurrence was almost exactly two years ago, with a 10-day stretch that ended on 11/5/2021. Of course, the forward market action for NDX showed weakness after that date, as it was one of just two out of the 12 other periods that saw a negative NDX return one year after the positive day streak. Most others have shown consistent improvement, with NDX continuing higher the next week 50% of the time, which improves to a 75% hit rate that it will post a gain over the next six months. It is important to note that the forward returns from these dates will inherently show near-term weakness, as the last day of a winning streak must be followed by at least one down day to be included in our examination. Furthermore, we see the average and median forward returns from these dates have not been much higher than the average and median forward returns from any date since 1992. While we may not be able to use a consecutive gain streak as a great indication of future strength, the more important takeaway is that the ending of these streaks does not typically correspond with market tops.
2. FAANG+ 13% Rally from October Pullback……8250 Previous Highs…
3. NVDA Approaching Highs…$500
4. Dividend Stocks vs. Non-Dividend 2023
5. More Alternative Energy Names….PLUG -50% in One Month.
6. Is Buffett Bearish on China or EV Space or Both? Exits BYD
Warren Buffett’s company slashed its stake in BYD. Here’s why that’s surprising – and 5 possible explanations.Business Insider Theron Mohamed
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has sold more than 60% of its BYD shares since last summer.
Buffett may have been taking profits, pruning his portfolio, or cutting his geopolitical exposure.
Here’s why the stock sales are surprising, and what the thinking might be behind them.
Why did Berkshire sell?A big reason that Berkshire has been cashing in its BYD stock may be geopolitics. The US and China have been clashing in recent months over everything from microchips and Taiwan to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Buffett and Munger may have decided to pull back from China given the rising tensions — the reason why they dumped Taiwan Semiconductor only a few months after buying it.
Buffett said in April that the breathless rise in BYD stock over the past few years, and the possibility of finding something better to invest in, were factors in the sale. He and Munger may have opted to realize some of the roughly 30-fold gain they’d made on the stock, especially as the company faces more than a few risks.
BYD is more aggressively valued than in years past, it’s still in a capital-intensive business in a brutally competitive industry, and investing heavily in battery development and other technologies.
The Berkshire chief may have found it easier to offload BYD than other stocks because it was never the best fit for his portfolio. The 93-year-old investor generally sticks to US-based companies in industries he deeply understands like fast food or insurance – a Chinese EV maker was always out of his comfort zone.
It’s not clear whether Buffett and Munger sold BYD stock because they wanted to take profits, free up cash, prune their portfolio, cut their geopolitical risk, or avoid future problems at the company. Berkshire shareholders will be watching closely to see if they sell any more shares – or provide further explanation.
9. Can’t Think, Can’t Remember: More Americans Say They’re in a Cognitive Fog
DNYUZ BLOG There are more Americans who say they have serious cognitive problems — with remembering, concentrating or making decisions — than at any time in the last 15 years, data from the Census Bureau shows.
The increase started with the pandemic: The number of working-age adults reporting “serious difficulty” thinking has climbed by an estimated one million people
What we can learn from everyday heroes-Psychology Today Steven Hayes.
KEY POINTS
We exhibit forms of mental strength every single day.
The more we willingly enter into our own experience in service of a greater purpose, the stronger we become.
Consider four qualities of mentally strong people to improve your own mental strength and overall well-being.
We often reserve the term “mentally strong” to describe people who accomplished extraordinary feats in the face of great adversity. Rarely, however, do we use these words to describe ourselves; possibly because we are painfully aware of our own shortcomings, or because we don’t consider our achievements as noteworthy enough. But mental strength comes in many shapes and forms. And if we pay attention and know where to look, we can witness it every single day — in both ourselves and other people around us.
For instance, do you ever feel tired after waking up, but still get dressed because you don’t want to be late for work? Or have you ever wanted to shout profanities after being cut off in traffic on your way to work, but decided not to because your child was in the backseat? Both of these examples require mental strength. It’s not just unpleasant emotions either that require mental strength — have you ever allowed a compliment to penetrate your being without an automatic dismissal, or allowed your eyes to linger in your lover’s eyes just a moment longer, even though you feel vulnerable in doing so? That too is mental strength.
Whenever you display a willingness to more fully enter your own experience in the service of a greater purpose, you exhibit mental strength. And the more frequently you act this way, the more you stretch your mental muscles and the more you strengthen your ability to act in a purpose-driven way in the future.
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Naturally, becoming mentally strong isn’t always easy, nor is it straightforward. The process involves a lot of nuance, and it requires you to foster distinct qualities along the way. Specifically, four qualities stand out, and if you practice any of them you can improve not just your mental strength but also your overall well-being. You might already recognize some of these qualities in yourself, whereas others may feel entirely foreign to you. Either way, please view the following list not as a yardstick by which to rate yourself, but as opportunities for your personal growth. With that being said, here are four qualities of mentally strong people.
1. They are open to new possibilities
Mentally strong people don’t stay on a single-loop track. They are rarely limited by preconceived notions about how they have to think, feel, or act, who they have to be, what they have to focus on, or what they have to care about. Rather than rigidly following self-imposed rules, mentally strong people are more open, can choose more freely, and are more likely to explore new possibilities. They can hold disparate thoughts at the same time; they can stay when an automatic mindset says to leave; they can let go when the mind says to cling. Because of these habits of mind and behavior, they can access a broader range of their experiences — both pleasant and unpleasant — without having to resist or cling to them.
Now, please notice what your mind does with this information, because it’s easy to fall into the trap of “I always have to be open to new possibilities” (which, ironically, is just another self-imposed rule). Rather than obeying your mind, see if you can just notice that this thought is currently unfolding in your consciousness, and allow it to be without following its demand. You can practice trying out new possibilities without turning it into a rule that you always “have” to do. After all, you are free to choose, again and again.
2. They choose what works
Mentally strong people are not just more open to new strategies, they are also more likely to choose the ones that work. This may sound simple enough, but this quality actually contains several sub-skills. For starters, it requires knowing your objectives — whether this is about your goals or deeper-seated values. In either case, you need to have a pretty clear direction, so you know what even constitutes as “working” in the first place. Additionally, it requires a certain level of self-awareness, so you can assess whether you are actually moving closer to your objectives or whether you are just deluding yourself.
I highly recommend going through the process of clarifying your objectives with a trained mental health professional, because it’s easy to lose sight of your deeper goals and values, or to mistakenly believe that you are making progress, when in reality you are not. If this is currently not an option for you, I advise monitoring your goals with the help of a trusted person, and/or getting objective feedback with a tracking device (e.g., by using an app on your smartphone). Having a reliable feedback system is essential when it comes to making effective improvements.
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3. They build successful habits
If you’ve read self-help articles before, you probably know what comes next. Yes, it is a cliché, but for good reasons because becoming mentally strong doesn’t happen by chance. Instead, it happens by consistently acting in ways that move you towards your chosen objectives. The emphasis here lies in the word “consistently,” because one-off actions are rarely enough to have a lasting impact. Only by building successful actions into habits can you gain the momentum needed to make a difference in your mental fortitude and your life in general.
I advise you to start slowly. Choose a new action — like going for a daily jog — and then break it down into something smaller. Probably even smaller still. So small, in fact, that it becomes almost ridiculous for you not to do it. This might mean going for a one-minute jog and then returning home. The key here is to not yet focus on the desired end result, but rather to focus on building consistency. Give yourself a “10-day challenge” in which every day you do something that carries you forward. You can aim bigger once you have shown some consistency in your efforts.
4. They adjust to their circumstances
Finally, mentally strong people adapt to their circumstances. They don’t wait for the perfect conditions before they can start taking action, nor do they stubbornly persist in their efforts, disregarding any feedback. Instead, they are more resourceful. They can accurately estimate the demands of their current context, their own capabilities, and then adjust their actions and expectations accordingly, so that they still pursue their objectives at a level that is workable, given their current inner and outer circumstances.
A choice that is right in one context may be disastrous in another, and vice versa. For instance, if you’re driving over the speed limit, you risk injuring yourself and others. However, if a loved one sits in the backseat and is in serious need of medical attention, rushing to the nearest hospital may be the right course of action. There are rarely any easy answers, and what you consider being “right” almost always depends on your context. Mentally strong people are aware of this dilemma, and adjust themselves — again, and again.
3. Bitcoin: 52-Week High Two Years After a Record High-Bespoke
Even for a volatile asset class, it has been quite a week for crypto-related assets. With a gain of nearly 8% for the week, Bitcoin rallied to 52-week highs and crossed above 35K, 36K, and 37K in the process. Year to date, the largest cryptocurrency is up over 125%, but looking at the chart below, all of the year’s gains have been confined to a handful of trading days in January, March, June, and now.
Ethereum had an even bigger week, rallying by over 14.5% and nearly doubling the gain in Bitcoin. Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum was trading just shy of its YTD high from back in April.
6. Average Borrowing Rate for Used Cars 3.85% to 7.3%
Dave Lutz Jones Trading Auto research firm Cox Automotive – the owner of the closely followed Manheim price index – published new data last week for October that shows wholesale used-vehicle prices continue to slide and have reached the lowest levels since April 2021. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index stood at 209.4 in October, down 2.3% from September. The index is down 4% from a year ago. Sliding demand comes as Bankrate data shows the average borrowing rates for used cars have surged from around 3.85% in Feb. 2022 to 7.3% this month
7. Autonomous Vehicles and Profitability
CHARTR Predictions of whenfully autonomous cars make their way into mainstream adoption have, historically, been way too optimistic. Elon Musk believes that Tesla is “very close” to delivering on level 4 or 5 self-driving, although it’s worth noting that similar comments have been made by Tesla’s head honcho in years gone by. What is easy to predict: getting to level 5 is going to continue requiring an enormous amount of money.
Are we there yet? Data from Crunchbase reveals that the amount of venture capital funding being poured into AVs has fallen sharply from its peak, and the willingness of industry incumbents to invest billions into projects with uncertain timelines also seems to be fading.
Cruise, for example, reportedly only has 9 months of cash left, having burned through more than $8 billion since 2017, and this week a senior executive at Honda, which has also invested heavily into the company, said it had no plans to invest more. Waymo cut 100 jobs earlier this year, Ford-backed Argo AI has already shut down, and the pivot to electric vehicles is proving enough of an expense for many manufacturers, without the added complication of building full autonomy. Even as AI hype grows by the day, the road to full self-driving suddenly seems a little longer. www.chartr.com
8. Housing Market Affordability
From Barry Ritholtz Blog Taking into account mortgage rates, local house prices, and local incomes, buying a home in markets like L.A. and Miami today is more expensive than it was in 1981
9. A Record High Share of U.S. Consumers are Planning International Vacation
Torston Slok Apollo Group
10. Tiny Thought(s)-Farnam Street Blog
Anyone can do it once. The best do it consistently. Anyone can order a healthy meal once. Anyone can get up early to workout once. Anyone can save more than they earn for a month. Anyone can take their partner on a date once. Anyone can write a page. Anyone can focus on one thing for an hour. Most people can’t do it consistently because they want instant gratification. They want to see the results … right now. Just because the results aren’t immediately visible, doesn’t mean they are not accumulating. Ordinary moments compound over weeks and months into extraordinary results. Consistently boring days make for extraordinary decades.
There are a lot of things you don’t control. You don’t get to pick your parents. You don’t get to pick the country you are born in. You don’t get to pick your given talent. You don’t get to pick the test. You don’t control where you start, but you can change where you go. Integrity is a choice. Kindness is a choice. Hard work is a choice. Preparation is a choice. Consistency is a choice. Your attitude is a choice. Your response is a choice. The people you hang around are a choice. Changing your trajectory is a choice.
The person who focuses on fewer things goes further than the person distracted by many. https://fs.blog
9. WSJ-Turning Empty Offices Into Apartments Is Getting Even Harder
Only 3,575 apartment units were converted from office space last year. The already fraught process now faces even more challenges. By Konrad Putzier and Will Parker
Nobody wants to be criticized. It doesn’t feel good when people judge what you’ve done. We want the right people to like us, we want all people to like us. We want to be accepted, appreciated, and celebrated. So we try to be like other people, like the people that everyone likes.
But in the end, does this effort pay off? No, it doesn’t. You work hard to preempt criticism, to appeal to the trends, to make people like you and then what happens? They still criticize you. Somebody finds something to find fault with you about. Think of how Marcus Aurelius was savaged by critics in his own time, just as he is today by many academics and philosophers, written off by many historians.
Imagine if he had tried instead to conform to their expectations, to fit more clearly in the box they wanted him to be. Imagine if he’d tried to win the mob’s favor or the respect of future generations by conquest or dazzling deed. Imagine if he had written Meditations for an audience instead of from a far more personal and vulnerable place.
It doesn’t matter what you do, the criticism is always going to be there. So you might as well do what you think ought to be done. You might as well do what seems meaningful and important and fulfilling and right to you. People are going to say what they’re going to say, haters will find a way to hate. In the meantime, just be true to yourself, be true to the mission you have, fight for the respect (and praise) of yourself, not the mob, not the future.
8. Credit Card and Holiday Season Indicator…Amazon Right at Next Resistance Level from 2022
9. Weed may do way more damage to your heart than we thought-Business Insider
Smoking weed may have similar health consequences as cigarettes, and new research suggests cannabis use can be bad for your heart. Jamie Grill/Getty Images
Two new studies suggests marijuana use can be harmful for heart health.
Using marijuana may increase risk of issues like heart attack or stroke in frequent or older users.
More research is needed, but users should be aware of the risks, experts say.
Smoking pot, taking edibles, or unwinding with a cannabis-infused beverage have become increasing popular as more states have eased up on laws restricting recreational use. But a marijuana habit isn’t risk-free, new research suggests.
Regular marijuana use is linked to significantly higher risk of cardiovascular issues like heart attack or stroke, according to a pair of preliminary studies to be presented at the American Heart Association (AHA) 2023 Scientific Sessions. The findings suggest that marijuana may be more concerning for health than people suspect, particularly for frequent consumers and those with underlying health conditions.
Using marijuana every day may increase risk of heart failure In one study, researchers at Medstar Health in Baltimore looked at data from 156,999 people, who were initially free from heart failure, over four years of follow up to compare health outcomes with self-reported marijuana use. They found that people who used marijuana daily had a 34% higher risk of developing heart failure than people who never used marijuana.
The study defined marijuana use as any consumption that was not prescribed for a health condition. The findings suggest that more evidence on how marijuana affects health could help consumers and health professionals make more informed decisions, according to Dr. Yakubu Bene-Alhasan, lead author of the study and a physician at Medstar “Our results should encourage more researchers to study the use of marijuana to better understand its health implications, especially on cardiovascular risk,” Bene-Alhasan said in a the press release.
The long-term health effects of cannabis aren’t yet clear Along with evidence that smoking cannabis has similar risks as cigarette use, the findings warrant more caution around cannabis use and heart health, according to Robert L. Page II, professor of clinical pharmacy at the University of Colorado and chair of the volunteer writing group for the 2020 American Heart Association Scientific Statement: Medical Marijuana, Recreational Cannabis, and Cardiovascular Health. Page, who was not involved with either study, said that inhaling cannabis smoke increases blood concentrations of carbon monoxide, a toxic gas, as well as tar, both of which are linked to serious heart problems.
“Together with the results of these two research studies, the cardiovascular risks of cannabis use are becoming clearer and should be carefully considered and monitored by health care professionals and the public,” he said.Previous evidence also suggests that while other forms of cannabis use — like consuming edibles — may avoid some exposure to the toxins involves in smoking, they can still have negative effects on heart health. That’s because THC, the active ingredient in marijuana that gets you high, may be harmful to the heart.
· “Yes, dear, I put that important document in a very safe place.” (If only I could recall where.)
· “I was smart! I put an Apple AirTag on my keychain.” (Now, has anybody seen my phone so I can track it?)
We’ve all been there. And if there’s one common, existential fear I hear among successful business owners and other leaders when talk turns serious, it’s the worry that forgetting things like this might foretell even more memory loss when we get older.
If that sounds familiar, you’ll likely be interested in a new study from the NYU Grossman School of Medicine that found a correlation between a specific but common type of diet during middle age, and a remarkable 17 percent better memory outcomes decades later.
Writing in the journal Alzheimer’s & Dementia, researchers said they tracked data related to 5,116 women in the NYU Women’s Health Study over 30 years, focusing on answers the women provided about their diets between 1985 and 1991.
The women were an average of 49 years old at the time, and the researchers were focused on how closely their diets adhered to the DASH diet, short for Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension, hypertension being the more formal medical term for high blood pressure.
Short version, according to Yu Chen, a professor in the Department of Population Health at NYU and senior author of the study:
With more than 30 years’ follow-up, we found that the stronger the adherence to a DASH diet in midlife, the less likely women are to report cognitive issues much later in life.
So, what exactly is the DASH diet? As diets go, it’s fairly simple and tasty. According to the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, which is a U.S. government resource, it includes:
· Eating vegetables, fruits, and whole grains
· Including fat-free or low-fat dairy products, fish, poultry, beans, nuts, and vegetable oils
· Limiting foods that are high in saturated fat, such as fatty meats, full-fat dairy products, and tropical oils such as coconut, palm kernel, and palm oils
· Limiting sugar-sweetened beverages and sweets
Not too difficult, right? In fact, we’ve seen a lot of interesting research recently, suggesting things people can do that correlate with better memory, either in the near-term or more systemically as they get older. Some are easier than others:
· Drinking significant amounts of coffee, or possibly tea
· Eating specific foods, some of which would go right in hand with the DASH diet, such as porcini mushrooms, all sorts of other vegetables, and even dark chocolate and cinnamon
· Improving your work environment, specifically the lighting (“Dim lights are producing dimwits,” one study author said.)
· Engaging in brain activities like pleasure reading, having detailed hobbies that require you to process and recall information, and doing crosswords and other brain games.
Oh, and my favorite, backed by at least one study whose authors say they have no idea why it works–but that I’ve actually used myself to surprising effect: walking backward to trigger memory recall.
Maintaining and improving memory are at the top of the list for so many of us — and doubly so if the behaviors we’re talking about are simple, tasty, and frankly things you might consider doing anyway.
1. Just Amazon AWS Revenue was Higher than Revenue of 461 Companies in S&P 500
@Charlie Bilello Amazon’s AWS revenue over the last 12 months ($88 billion) was higher than the revenue of 461 companies in the S&P 500. From $3 billion to $88 billion in less than 10 years (>40% annualized growth).
Apple has bought back $604 billion in stock over the past 10 years, which is greater than the market cap of 492 companies in the S&P 500.
2. XLE Energy ETF Interesting Chart
XLE failed at 2 attempts to make new highs..then twice bounced off 200-day
3. Berskire Record Cash….Sold $5B in Stocks.
4. Dow Jones Railroads Holding Lows
5. Last Weeks Rally Led by Weakest Previous Performers.
Bespoke The rally this week has been broad based, but the best performing stocks have been the names that did the worst in the 10 days prior. Below we’ve broken the large-cap Russell 1,000 into deciles (10 groups of 100 stocks each) based on stock performance during the market’s decline from 10/17 to 10/27 (last Friday). As shown, the decile of the worst performing stocks during the 10/17-10/27 pullback is averaging the strongest gains during this week’s rally.
Looking at individual stocks, below are the 30 best performing names this week in the Russell 1,000. At the top of the list is Roku (ROKU), which is up more than 50%! Another eight stocks are up more than 25% this week, including names like DoorDash (DASH), DraftKings (DKNG), Pinterest (PINS), Paramount (PARA), and Palantir (PLTR). Other noteworthy stocks up big this week include Wayfair (W), Block (SQ), Avis (CAR), Warner Bros. (WBD), Coinbase (COIN), TopBuild (BLD), and even Peloton (PTON).
Capital Group-Patient investors who stay the course have often been rewarded. Since 1932, stocks have gained an average of 11.3% in the 12 months following the conclusion of the primaries (using May 31 as a proxy) compared to just 5.8% in similar periods of non-election years.
Bloomberg By Robb MandelbaumData Bloomberg Businessweek collected from highly ranked business schools in our survey indicates that applications to full-time MBA programs at most of those institutions have been falling since at least 2017, despite two good years during the pandemic. At least 17 of the top 26 programs have seen long-term application declines—which for most of them continued into 2023. (At press time, Columbia Business School had yet to publish data for its class of 2025. Berkeley’s Haas School of Business declined to provide application figures for the last two years.)
10. The U.S. Receives 1m Legal Immigrants Per Year….More than the Rest of World Combined.
Zero Hedge Why Immigrants Came to the U.S. in 2021
New arrival data in a given year includes non-tourist visas, new arrival green cards, refugees, and asylees.
Each arrival falls under a broad class of admission:
Work: Includes visas for specialty occupations or temporary agricultural work, as well as new arrival green cards issued for employment.
School: Includes student visas and families of student visa recipients.
Family: Includes immigrant visas and new arrival green cards issued for relatives of American citizens.
Safety: Includes refugees and asylees, as well as immigrant visas and new arrival green cards issued for fears of safety or persecution.
Diversity: Entry through the Diversity Visa Program—also known as the “green card lottery”—which accepts applicants from countries with low numbers of immigrants in the previous five years.
In 2021, the United States saw 1.53 million new arrivals. Here’s how the arrivals break down by class and origin:
New arrivals for work were the largest cohort of entries to America, totaling 638,551 people or 41.8% of new arrivals. The majority came from neighboring Mexico, which accounted for 55% of incoming workers and was the largest single country of origin.
School and education saw 492,153 people 32.2% of new U.S. arrivals, with the majority coming from Asian countries. China had the most school-related entries into the U.S. out of individual countries, accounting for 19.0% of total school-related entries, followed by India at 17.4%.
Family entries to the U.S. comprised just 23.2% or under a quarter of incoming new arrivals. In these instances, the largest cohorts came from India (17.6% of family entrants) and Mexico (15.2% of family entrants).
Compared to the larger classifications above, safety (1.9% of total entrants) and diversity (0.9% of total entrants) accounted for significantly fewer U.S. arrivals. The countries with the most citizens seeking refuge or asylum were the Democratic Republic of the Congo (4,876 refugees) and Venezuela (1,596 asylees) respectively.
WJS Latin America, Africa and developing markets in Asia now account for 36% of overall Chinese trade, compared with 33% for its trade with the U.S., Europe and Japan, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of Chinese customs data. As recently as last summer, that trio of advanced markets accounted for a larger share of Chinese trade. Write to Jason Douglas at jason.douglas@wsj.comand Tom Fairless at tom.fairless@wsj.com
Getting someone to do a thing you want them to do is one of the most challenging things about interacting with other humans. We all have our own agendas and desires and they are often informed by our individual values and perception of the world around us.
If you are in a job that involves persuading people–like sales, or leading a team–you know that one of the most important aspects of persuasion is creating the right expectations. If you want a person to do something, it’s helpful to start by getting buy-in from them, and expectations help to do just that.
For example, imagine you are sitting across the table from someone who is trying to figure out what to buy from you. For them, this is all new, and they’re having to make a series of decisions about whether all of the things you offer will be a good fit. You can see that they’re trying to sort through it all when you say, “Most of my customers…” followed by whatever it is that most of your customers choose.
“Most of my customers find that option ‘C’ gives them the flexibility they need, while scaling affordably as they grow.”
There’s a very simple reason this works. Most people want to be like most people, most of the time. That’s human nature. If someone is considering becoming your customer, they aren’t just buying a thing, they’re buying into the experience of being your customer. For them, knowing what that means creates expectations and makes them more comfortable.
Look, even though they may say otherwise, most people don’t want to be unique. They want to be like the rest of your customers and you can help by telling them what that means. That is, after all, the entire point of almost all marketing–to tell a story about what it looks like to use a product or service.
There are, of course, a few important caveats. The first is that whatever comes after those four words have to be true. If you just make stuff up, it might persuade someone for a short time, but, eventually, it will become obvious that you lied. Not only will they not be persuaded, they won’t ever trust you again. It’s just not worth it.
This is important because it can be tempting to try this trick to persuade people to spend more or to choose something that isn’t in their best interests. That’s a different four-word phrase altogether: “Everyone is doing it.” The difference is, that’s about putting peer pressure on someone to do something for your own benefit. Again, it might work for a little while, but it will cost you your credibility.
Second, this works best when the person you are persuading is making a decision to buy in. The key is that the person wants to be a part of the group, whether that’s your customers or your team. It’s not helpful to tell someone what all of your customers do if they aren’t in any way interested in being one of your customers.
Finally, those four words work even better when you follow them with an explanation of why. For example, “most of our clients choose option ‘C’ because it gives them the flexibility they need while allowing them to scale affordably,” gives your potential customer the information they need to see themself in that situation.
Obviously, this doesn’t work for everyone. That’s why I say “almost anyone,” because there will always be someone who resists any attempt to conform to whatever is normal. That’s okay. When you find that it doesn’t work, it’s probably a good sign that that customer wasn’t a good fit anyway.
The PEG ratio enhances the P/E ratio by adding expected earnings growth into the calculation.
The PEG ratio is considered to be an indicator of a stock’s true value, and similar to the P/E ratio, a lower PEG may indicate that a stock is undervalued.
The PEG for a given company may differ significantly from one reported source to another.
Differences will depend on which growth estimate is used in the calculation, such as one-year or three-year projected growth.
A PEG lower than 1.0 is best, suggesting that a company is relatively undervalued.
6. Households Long 60/40 Getting Worried After 2 Years Negative
The 60/40 portfolio continues to underperform and households are getting more worried about their retirement, see chart below.
Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, Partner
7. COST VS. TGT …
This chart shows big outperformance of Costco vs. Target
8. Uranium Making Run at Highs.
9. Home Remodeling=Rates Up Projects Down
10. Your Brain Is Incredibly Creative and Adaptable
Psychology Today The brain’s ability to keep us from becoming prey is a remarkable feat. Justin James Kennedy,
KEY POINTS
Popular narratives oversimplify the complexity of the brain as a three-layered structure.
The brain is designed to creatively coordinate actions to adapt to the environment and navigate challenges.
The brain shares a common foundation with mammals but has a unique, extensive developmental window.
Co-authored by Denise Cooper.
When we learn about the theory of evolution, we often envision a vast interwoven tree that culminates with humans at the end. This perception imbues the natural world with purpose, leading us to reverse-engineer everything and see all previous life forms as mere stepping stones toward humanity. The human brain is a remarkable organ designed to coordinate our actions, enabling us to adapt to our environment and navigate its challenges. However, it is crucial to maintain sight of what the brain is for and how it evolved.
The Brain’s Evolutionary Purpose
Similar to other mammals and vertebrates, the human brain has a common structural foundation. Its true distinction lies in the extensive developmental window through which it matures. Unlike other animals whose instincts primarily prompt flight, fight, or survival behaviors, human infants are born with a different set of questions in mind: “Where am I? What am I dealing with? And what do I need?” These inquiries have been instrumental in propelling human development to its current state.
The Brain’s Evolutionary Arms Race
The evolution of brains was propelled by the predator-prey dynamic, initiating a competitive race between species to outsmart one another. Consequently, the imperative for survival drove the evolution of heightened senses, agile muscles, powerful wings, and swift feet, all necessitating more advanced brains to support these adaptations.
The Brain’s Complexity
The common narrative often simplifies the human brain into three distinct layers: the “lizard brain” for basics, the “limbic brain” for regulation, and the “cerebral cortex” for rationality. However, this portrayal, while convenient, fails to capture the true complexity of our brains. In reality, all brains, regardless of complexity, are intricately designed to coordinate increasingly sophisticated functions.
The human brain, a marvel of complexity, governs our thoughts, emotions, movements, and coordination. What truly distinguishes the human brain is its remarkable creativity and adaptability. Constantly generating innovative ideas and problem-solving solutions, our brains enable us to invent, create art, and find novel approaches, even in challenging circumstances.
Our brains exhibit extraordinary adaptability. When confronted with new challenges, they can rewire themselves to help us overcome obstacles. For instance, when we learn a new language, our brains create fresh neural pathways to store the information.
If we experience the loss of a limb, our brains can remap sensory and motor areas to compensate for the loss. This inherent creativity and adaptability are the essence of our humanity, empowering us to learn, evolve, innovate, and thrive in an ever-changing world.
The Resilience and Brilliance of the Human Brain
Barrett, L. F., & Satpute, A. B. (2013) emphasize that the structure of our brains is not drastically different from that of other mammals or vertebrates. What sets us apart, though, is the extensive developmental phase during which our brains mature. As infants, our instinctive reactions are not solely focused on flight, fight, or hiding; instead, we inquire about our location, situation, needs, and desires.
While it may lack grandiosity, the most remarkable aspect of our brain is its ability to ensure our survival. Our brains have honed their adaptability through countless generations, enabling us to evade the threats. This resilience is a testament to the evolutionary success of our species.
Its adaptability and capacity to navigate complex environments have been pivotal in our species’ progression. As we continue to uncover the mysteries of the brain, it is crucial to appreciate its primal nature and the remarkable journey that has brought us to where we are today—safely and triumphantly evading the perils of our world and designing new and exciting realities.
Conclusion
It is essential to acknowledge that the narratives we construct to showcase our creative side are merely stories, and their accuracy cannot always be verified, as per Barrett, L. F., Mesquita, B., Ochsner, K. N., & Gross, J. J. (2007) The popularised story often told about our brain, which portrays it as a three-layered structure: the “lizard brain” responsible for basic functions, the “limbic brain” for regulation, and the “cerebral cortex” for rationality, is limiting. This storyline is attractive, aligning neatly with the familiar biology classroom poster. But it doesn’t explain the human mind’s extraordinary ability to envision new ideas and turn them into functional tools for our enjoyment and betterment.
Professor Lisa Feldman Barrett offers insights into how the brain processes emotions and the need for social interactions. However, it is crucial to remember the brain’s purpose and how it came into existence. The brain’s fundamental role is to coordinate our actions effectively, enabling us to adapt to our surroundings. Given that the world is filled with surprises, many of which threaten our well-being, possessing a brain is our best defense mechanism.
While it may not be the most glamorous tale or a blockbuster movie plot, let’s take a moment to appreciate the sheer brilliance of our brains. Keep up the great work, brain—you’re doing an exceptional job of bringing wonder and delight to the world and keeping us off the carnivore menu.
9. Britian From Imperialism to Exporting Elite Private Education
10. Pitfalls That Destroy Organizational Trust-HBR
by Frances X. Frei and Anne MorrissFacebook made “Move fast and break things” an informal company motto. But leadership experts Frances Frei and Anne Morriss argue that this belief is deeply flawed — and that it keeps leaders from building a great company.
The best leaders move fast and fix things — they solve hard problems while making their organizations stronger. In their new book Move Fast and Fix Things (Harvard Business Review Press), Frei and Morriss outline five strategies to help leaders tackle their hardest problems and quickly make change:
Tell a compelling story about the change you need to make.
Execute your plan with a sense of urgency.
This month, we’ll be publishing a series of excerpts that correspond to each strategy. In this excerpt, Frei and Morriss explain that, just as with personal trust, organizational trust relies on the presence of authenticity, empathy, and logic. But most organizations are shaky on at least one of these trust pillars. Which ones are getting in the way of your organization’s progress?
In order to trust you as an organization, your stakeholders need to believe three things: that you care about them (empathy), that you’re capable of meeting their needs (logic), and that you can be expected to do what you say you’ll do (authenticity). Just like when people lose trust, organizations that are losing trust — or failing to build as much trust as they could — tend to get shaky or wobble on one of these three dimensions. Below is a list of some of the trust problems we see most frequently in our work, along with what they reveal about what’s getting wobbly.
1. Aversion to making choices
This one can present in all kinds of ways, from managing for consensus to trying to be great at everything you do as an organization. A gentle reminder: although it may feel safer to hedge your bets, catering to a constituent that can be best described as “everyone” is often a much riskier path for the company. Your refusal to choose is increasing the likelihood of exhausted mediocrity. Trust wobble: logic.
2. Reliance on heroic employees
Many business models are designed for employees we wish we had, not for the employees we actually have — the ones with imperfections and lives outside of work. If your operations depend on people continuously going above and beyond, then be prepared to work much harder to find these magical creatures and reward them with outsize compensation. Few organizations are truly up for the task. Trust wobble: logic.
3. Shiny object syndrome
The human brain is wired to focus on the new, new thing, even when the old, old thing matters more. A lack of intention (also known, less cheerily, as lack of discipline) in the pursuit of new opportunities puts your business model at risk. Excellent adventures in new products and markets are often justified by hazy ROI equations that inflate the upside and downplay the risk, including the cost of distraction from more urgent priorities. May be accompanied by other types of magical thinking. Trust wobble: logic.
4. Disengaged middle management
Managers in what we call the “murky middle” of an organization are often the only people who know the true distance between a company’s reality and its ambition. They know how much effort it’s going to take to win, understand the true hazards of the journey, and typically have the most to lose (and least to gain) along the way. And yet, instead of being unleashed in moments of big change, middle managers are often overlooked by a leadership team that’s focused on inspiring the front lines and gaining buy-in at the top. Trust wobble: empathy.
5. Casual relationship with other people’s time
Do you treat your people’s time as if it’s your most strategic asset? It’s one of our favorite leadership reflection prompts, and you’ll hear us repeat it again and again. Far too many organizations are far too comfortable wasting their employees’ time on everything from clunky HR software to forcing everyone to come into the office to indulge a nostalgic view of what work used to feel like. The opportunity cost is immeasurable. Trust wobble: empathy.
6. Comfort with collateral damage
This is the “break things” part of “Move fast and break things,” which can get embedded into an organization’s culture. It often presents as desensitization to unintentional harms and justified by a “We tried our best” storyline. Organizations that would never tolerate this attitude when it comes to some parts of the business (“We tried our best to protect our financial data!”) often want participation trophies for trying not to harm their users and employees. Trust wobble: empathy.
7. High incidence of the “Sunday scaries”
If a significant percentage of your colleagues feel an impending sense of dread at the thought of coming to work, then something is strained, if not broken, in the company’s relationship with its employees. Sometimes there’s an unskilled (or worse) manager to blame, but when people are experiencing this kind of anticipatory anxiety at scale, then there’s an org-level problem that needs to be fixed. (Spoiler: You’re getting a small fraction of what your people are capable of contributing.) Trust wobble: empathy.
8. People-pleasing in the boardroom
This pattern is rooted in our human impulse to tell people what we think they want to hear, particularly when said people can materially impact our organizational and/or professional futures. We’re not talking about fraud or misrepresentation here but rather a habit of gently withholding, massaging, and constructing reality. The trust hit for this one is often higher than we think, since boards tend are sensitive to being managed and typically composed of excellent detectors of partial truths. Know that what they really want from you is the information they need to help the company solve problems. Trust wobble: authenticity.
9. Tolerance for misalignment
Is your marketing team writing checks that your product team can’t cash? Lack of alignment anywhere in the business is a problem but pay closest attention to org-level disconnects. One we see frequently is a gap between strategy and culture — for example, a strategy of innovation layered onto a culture defined by coloring within the lines. Trust wobble: authenticity.
10. Delusions of meritocracy
OK, here’s what this looks like: you’ve told yourselves you’re a meritocracy, but you keep hiring, promoting, and retaining the same types of people. If the humans at the top of your organization bear little resemblance to the rest of your employees, the customers you serve, or the demographic distribution of the communities in which you operate, then we promise you, you’re not a meritocracy. Trust wobble: authenticity.
What S&P said: “On a year-to-date basis, the National Composite has risen 5.8%, which is well above the median full calendar year increase in more than 35 years of data,” said Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI.
“The year’s increase in mortgage rates has surely suppressed housing demand, but after years of very low rates, it seems to have suppressed supply even more,” he added.
“Unless higher rates or other events lead to general economic weakness, the breadth and strength of this month’s report are consistent with an optimistic view of future results,” Lazzara said.
A new study has found that exposure to light at night messes with our internal body clock, increasing the risk of mental illness, while daytime light exposure reduces that risk. The findings offer a simple and effective, non-pharmacological means of improving mental health.
Our internal body clock, or circadian rhythm, regulates cycles of alertness and sleepiness by responding to the changes in light in our environment. While other cues such as exercise, social activity and temperature can affect circadian rhythm, light remains the most powerful influence.
It’s known that disturbances in circadian rhythm are a common feature of many psychiatric disorders. So, it makes sense that light exposure is a modifiable environmental risk factor in mental illness. To investigate, Monash University researchers led the world’s largest study on the effect of exposure to daytime and nighttime light on mental illness risk.
The researchers recruited 86,772 adult participants from the UK Biobank who were examined for their exposure to light, sleep, physical activity and mental health. They found that in those exposed to high amounts of light at night, the risk of depression increased by 30%, while in those exposed to high amounts of daytime light, their risk of depression fell by 20%.
Similar patterns were seen for self-harming behavior, psychosis, bipolar disorder, generalized anxiety disorder, and PTSD. The findings were consistent when accounting for demographic factors, physical activity, sleep, shift work, living environment and cardiometabolic health.
“Our findings will have a potentially huge societal impact,” said Sean Cain, one of the study’s co-authors. “Once people understand that their light exposure patterns have a powerful influence on their mental health, they can take some simple steps to optimize their wellbeing. It’s about getting bright light in the day and darkness at night.”
The researchers say that modern life – particularly artificial light and the light from devices like phones, computers and TV screens – has confused our internal body clocks, challenging how our brains have evolved to work best during the bright light of day.
“Humans today challenge this biology, spending around 90% of the day indoors under electric lighting, which is too dim during the day and too bright at night compared with natural light and dark cycles,” Cain said. “It is confusing to our bodies and making us unwell.”
The study’s findings demonstrate that avoiding light at night and seeking light during the day may be a simple and effective non-pharmacological way of improving mental health.
Home Barrons–equity accounts for almost half of the median net worth of homeowners 60 and older, according to a Vanguard analysis. The average retirement savings, meanwhile, is $223,000. Home equity can provide a meaningful addition to that—provided retirees can make an advantageous move. https://www.barrons.com/articles/rising-home-prices-retirees-2e917a5d?mod=past_editions
2. Small Cap at Summer 2018 Levels
3. Dividend Yield Poor Performer 2023.
4. Semiconductor ETF Hitting 200day
Barrons By Tae Kim–Of the 115,000 new jobs needed by the U.S. chip industry by 2030, some 67,000 jobs will go unfilled, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association. The U.S. trains foreigners in its world-class education system, but immigration policies make it difficult for U.S. companies to hire them.
Chart Storm Callum Thomas Q4 is typically a stronger quarter in terms of buybacks, but it is notable that the recent trend has been down in terms of buyback announcements. Some of this will have to do with the cost pressures dampening margins last year, but especially also with borrowing costs now a lot higher — making it more difficult a calculus for firms to fund buybacks with debt.
In a previous post, “What is Your Anxiety Type?”, I described three types of anxiety, each with unique characteristics, ways in which anxiety seeks to remain in control when challenged, and solutions. Knowing your anxiety type can help you understand your anxiety in a new way, and to apply strategies best suited to address the underlying issue being expressed through your anxiety.
There are also five universal truths of anxiety, always present, regardless of your anxiety type. Within these universal truths lies important information to better understand the nature of anxiety and skills to practice when feeling anxious.
Anxiety is an innate biological response to perceived danger and serves the essential function of keeping you safe. It is controlled by the amygdala, a cluster of cells located in the most primitive part of the brain. The amygdala has one job: to look for signs of danger.
When danger is detected, the amygdala releases hormones, one of which becomes adrenaline. Adrenaline causes, amongst other things, increased heart rate, shallow breathing and stimulated sweat glands. These functions prepare your body to fight off or flee from danger by supplying your large muscles with fuel and energy. This is commonly known as the fight, flight or freeze response. When the amygdala is activated your mind hyperfocuses on the perceived danger, and blocks access to parts of your prefrontal cortex responsible for higher-level thinking and meaning making in order to focus your mental resources solely on your survival. This is responsible for the “irrational thinking” that often accompanies anxiety.
You likely recognize the physical symptoms of anxiety, caused by the physiological response to perceived danger. Anxiety impacts your emotional, cognitive and biological functioning. The five universal truths of anxiety address important facts for you to understand about all three impacts of anxiety.
1. Breathing is essential.
The physical symptoms of anxiety are the result of the physiologically aroused state triggered by the release of adrenaline into your system. When in a physiologically aroused anxiety state, the most effective way to calm the body’s biological response is through deep breathing. It is physiologically impossible for your body to remain in an aroused state while doing deep breathing.
There are a number of breathing patterns scientifically proven to calm the physiological arousal of anxiety. The key to effective breathing is a slow, prolonged exhale.
Two highly effective breathing patterns are the 4-7-8 technique and box breathing.
The 4-7-8 technique involves inhaling through your nose for the count of 4, holding your breath for the count of 7 and exhaling through pursed lips for the count of 8. Repeat this pattern for as long as is necessary to lower the physical symptoms of anxiety.
For box breathing, inhale for the count of 4, hold your breath for the count of 4, exhale for the count of 4 and then again hold your breath for the count of 4. Repeat this breathing pattern until you have achieved a state of calm.
2. Your mind can hold only one thought at a time.
While your thoughts may quickly jump from one thought to another, your mind can hold only one thought at a time. If it is focused on an anxiety provoking thought, such as “I am scared”, “This is terrible”, or “Something bad is going to happen” you will feel anxious. If your mind is focused on a neutral or calming thought, such as “I am safe”, “I can handle this”, or “I will figure this out”, you will feel calm or calmer. Therefore, focusing on neutral or calming thoughts will lower your anxiety.
Additionally, using calming strategies such as listening to music, podcasts, or guided meditations can help lower anxiety by giving your mind something soothing or positively distracting to engage with.
3. Avoidance is a common response to anxiety.
A nearly universal response to anxiety is to avoid the source of your anxiety. If you are anxious about not having enough money, you may avoid looking at your bank account. If you fear having a difficult conversation you may avoid it. While the impulse to do this is understandable, it never helps. Avoidance is nothing more than prolonged suffering disguised as safety. At best it heightens your anxiety and at worst it turns a feared outcome into a real problem.
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The only way through anxiety is to step into it. You cannot overcome anxiety from a distance. You must step into the thing that makes you anxious and tolerate the resulting discomfort to get to the other side of it.
To differentiate distraction from avoidance, avoidance is to hide from the source of your anxiety. Distraction is a tool you can utilize when stepping into your anxiety to help you tolerate the discomfort you will inevitably feel. If you are afraid of flying, avoidance would be to never fly. Distraction would be to use soothing mantras and listening to podcasts while flying to lessen and better tolerate your anxious feelings. The fear of flying, like all anxiety, can only be overcome by exposing yourself to the thing you fear.
4. In emotionally charged situations, your mind will make up stories. The stories will rarely reflect the truth.
The human mind is uncomfortable with uncertainty. It constantly makes up stories in a futile effort to know the unknown. When you are in an emotionally charged situation, around the things you do not know (what someone else is thinking, feeling or why they are behaving in a way you can observe) your mind will make up a story to fill in the blanks. The story will be a reflection of your greatest fear or vulnerability. And it will almost never be an accurate reflection of what is true.
The distress you feel will likely come more from the story your mind has created than from the facts you know in any given situation. When in an emotionally charged situation, around the distress you are feeling, check to see if your distress is based in fact, or the story you have created. Refocus your thoughts and energy only on what you know to be true.
5. There is a constant interplay between thoughts, feelings and behavior. Feelings are always the last to change.
At all times, there is an interplay between your thoughts, feelings and behaviors; each influencing the others. Feelings are always the most powerful. Changing one will change the other two. While you can choose your thoughts and behaviors, you cannot as easily choose your feelings. Feelings do not work that way. When has it ever been helpful to be told, “Just don’t feel that way?” or “Why don’t you feel this way instead?”
When seeking to change your feelings, you must first change your thoughts and actions. You will have to do so while still feeling your uncomfortable feelings. You cannot wait for the feelings to change first. But know that by changing your thoughts and actions to align with the desired feeling, the feeling will follow.
If you’re like most smart and savvy business people, you might be looking for an edge in jump-starting a great conversation at a social event. Have you ever wondered what makes some networkers more interesting and likable when it comes to connecting with others in such situations?
It starts with knowing your brain. You have this part of your brain that experts call the “deliberate system.” It’s pretty powerful when you know how to use it right. But here’s the catch: Your deliberate system, which is subconscious, is like a computer that can only handle so much data at once. So, it tends to filter out a bunch of stuff around us, which means we might miss out on essential cues and events.
What you need to avoid
Now, when it comes to making the most of this deliberate system, brain experts have some solid advice. They say to steer clear of negative stereotypes and quick judgments. Why? Because if we’ve already decided we don’t like someone, we’ll only pay attention to things that back up our opinion. It’s like wearing a pair of confirmation bias glasses. So, keeping an open mind and holding off on snap judgments is key. This way, you’re really giving your brain the chance to work at its best.
Why This E-Commerce Entrepreneur Changed Her Mind About Influencer Marketingnds of 1
Before you dive into a conversation, take a moment to figure out what you’re aiming for. This sets the tone for your whole brain operation during the talk. By having clear intentions, you are more likely to overlook any awkwardness or annoyances and be better able to notice the interesting aspects of the conversation. This will allow you to establish a strong rapport with the person you are conversing with.
Three ways to be interesting
To become more interesting, you must focus on the other person and be genuinely curious about them. This means finding something interesting about them, something you may have learned during a conversation, and following up with thought-provoking questions. Studies show that curious people have better relationships and connect better with others.
Another way to be more interesting is to focus on the positive. Our brains are wired to scan our surroundings for rewards and threats constantly. If we focus only on the threats, we become stressed, impairing our ability to think and communicate effectively. Instead, focus on the rewards. Even if you’re nervous, try to find something interesting or fascinating in the conversation to shift your brain’s focus.
Finally, people love talking about themselves, so ask them genuine questions. By showing an interest in their story, you make yourself more interesting. Science explains that when you build others up by being curious about them and asking about their views on a topic, it’s inherently rewarding for their brains.
When asking questions, quality counts. Avoid the generic conversational starters like “What do you do?” or “Where are you from?” and instead ask more compelling questions like “What made you choose to live there?” or “What do you like the most about your job?”
By making the conversation about the other person, you train your brain to be more socially active and become the more interesting person in the room.
1. US Stock Repurchases are Tracking a 3% Decline in the Third Quarter after Falling 26% in the Previous Three Months, According to Bank of America Corp. Strategists
Dave Lutz Jones Trading Corporate America’s spending on share buybacks, a driver of the US stock market rally for over a decade, is slowing in the face of higher-for-longer interest rates and an uncertain economic backdrop. US stock repurchases are tracking a 3% decline in the third quarter after falling 26% in the previous three months, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists. Though the reversal appears to be becoming less severe, BofA says tightening credit conditions and increased cost of capital mean buybacks remain at risk.
2. Since Fed Hikes S&P vs. Small Cap
Michael Batnick Irrelevant Investor The S&P 500 is flat since the Fed started raising rates in March 2022. It’s weathered the hiking cycle much better than smaller stocks that are more sensitive to tighter financial conditions. Over the same time, the Russell 2000 is down 16%.
Bloomberg By Claire BallentineAmericans are falling behind on their auto loans at the highest rate in nearly three decades. With interest rate hikes making newer loans more expensive, millions of car owners are struggling to afford their payments. It’s a clear indication of distress at a time when the economy is sending mixed signals, particularly about the health of consumer spending.
The percent of subprime auto borrowers at least 60 days past due on their loans rose to 6.11% in September, the highest in data going back to 1994, according to Fitch Ratings. In April that figure slipped from a previous high of 5.93% in January. But after burning through tax returns, contending with a shakier job market and grappling with still-elevated inflation, more car owners have become delinquent.
10. Poor Wellbeing Linked to Formation of New Chronic Conditions
Lower wellbeing linked to 159 extra new conditions per 1,000 people
Analysis tracks 3,654 working adults over three-year period
$101.5 billion in new annual healthcare costs linked to extra conditions
WASHINGTON, D.C. — U.S. adult workers who have poor wellbeing across most or all of the five essential elements of wellbeing are about twice as likely to report a major new chronic condition over a 36-month period of successive surveys than are their counterparts who have high wellbeing in no more than one element. Overall:
Those workers with poor wellbeing (defined as having high wellbeing in one or none of the five elements) developed 450 new chronic conditions per 1,000 persons three years after being initially interviewed.
Those workers with inconsistent wellbeing (i.e., high wellbeing in two to four of the elements) added 330 new chronic conditions per 1,000 persons over the three-year period.
Those workers with holistic wellbeing (i.e., high wellbeing in all five elements) added 230 new chronic conditions per 1,000 persons over three years.
As such, out of every 1,000 full-time working adults with either poor or inconsistent wellbeing, the increased odds of developing or experiencing new diseases or medical conditions are associated with an extra 159 chronic conditions over the 36-month measurement period than what would otherwise be expected if all 1,000 workers had holistically high wellbeing.
The wellbeing classification is based on the wellbeing of each respondent at the start of the three-year window. The increased disease rate for high-wellbeing respondents is statistically lower than the rates for their lower-wellbeing counterparts.
Gallup’s five essential elements of wellbeing are:
Career wellbeing: You like what you do every day.
Social wellbeing: You have meaningful friendships in your life.
Financial wellbeing: You manage your money well.
Physical wellbeing: You have energy to get things done.
BIGPX chart below 200day and breaks early October level.
4. Small Business in the U.S. is Paying 10% Interest on Loans.
Torston Slok Apollo There are 33 million small businesses in the US, and the monthly survey from the NFIB shows that small businesses are now paying 10% interest on short-term loans, see chart below.
In other words, Fed policy is working as the textbook would have predicted, and companies are facing higher costs of capital.
The outcome is lower capex spending and lower hiring.
5. S&P 600 is Small Cap Names that Make Money.
40% of Russell 2000 has no net profits….But even Small caps that make money also approaching 2022 lows.
6. Moderna…$500 to $80
7. Update on Lithium Stocks….ETF -50% from Highs.
8. Home Construction ETF Chart Back to Summer Lows….Still +17% YTD with Disappearing Home Equity Lines.
9. Buy vs. Rent ….52% More Expensive to Buy than Rent.
Chartr.com
10. Body Movement.
Sunday Firesides: Be a Swiss Army Human
How many different physical movements did you perform in the past week?
You surely walked, at least between your house and car and your car and office. Perhaps you bent over or reached for something above your head. If you follow a regular fitness routine, maybe you also ran, pedaled, squatted, and lunged.
But even if you fall into the category of regular exerciser, you likely still only used a small percentage of your body’s physical capabilities.
And that’s been true not only for days, but months and even years.
When was the last time you crawled or rolled?
Jumped up to something . . . down from something . . . over something?
Threw a punch . . . or a ball?
Hung from a bar right-side up . . . or upside-down?
Balanced across a beam?
Scaled a vertical ladder . . . or traversed a horizontal one?
Vaulted over a wall?
Carried something other than groceries?
Climbed a rope . . . a tree . . . a mountain?
Swam? Dived? Danced?
The human body is the greatest multitool on earth. Yet most people function as if they were only a blade.
Your physical capacities aren’t just nice to have in your back pocket. They unlock a spectrum of possibilities. Practicing the myriad of embodied skills you possess hones your health, allows you to navigate more landscapes, and could save your life in an emergency. Best of all, it simply feels amazing to be physically competent, to be able to explore every environment — to fulfill the measure of your creation.
So don’t just attack life with a knife. Bust out your metaphorical magnifying glass, screwdriver, scissors, and toothpick. And regularly use that corkscrew to open a bottle of life’s many physical joys.
SolarEdge Technologies SEDG, -5.63% warned on profits due to a slowdown in solar-power installations in Europe, news that also hurt rivals including Enphase Energy ENPH, -6.41% and SunPower SPWR, -2.28%. Marketwatch
TAN Solar ETF 50day thru 200day to downside
3. ICLN Clean Energy ETF …50day thru 200day to Downside
4. Update…XLE Oil Energy ETF vs. TAN Solar ETF
Oil outperforming solar by wide margin
5. EWJ Japan ETF….Popular Post Warren Buffet Japanese Buys.
EWJ Triple Top and Close Below 200-Day
6. Gold Hits Record Level vs. Major International Currencies.
7. 10-Year Treasury Yield Hitting Resistance Level Going Back to 2008
8. Prologis Industrial REIT Making Run at 2022 Lows.
Callum Thomas Stocks vs Bonds: Stocks have had an amazing run vs corporate bonds since the 2009 market bottom. You might say though that they only just got back to the dot-com high, and effectively had a lost 2-decades. As they say: entry point and path matter! Interesting also though to see it peaking out after a sharp run up — overbought at resistance?
7. Ex-Magnificant Seven….S&P Just Hit Lowest Level of 2023
Marketwatch Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, highlighted the fact that the S&P 500 excluding the “Magnificent Seven” megacap technology names recently touched its lowest level of the year, while the ratio of the S&P 500 excluding the Mag Seven vs. the entire index has fallen to its lowest level since late 2021. By Joseph Adinolfi
10. How to Achieve Goals.Howto Achieve the Goals You Set
One of the most widely read TraderFeed posts in the last few years dealt with the topic of FIGS: Focused, Intensive Goal Setting. Too often, the goals that we set are not much more than good intentions. New Year’s resolutions are a notorious example. How can we become better at actually achieving the goals we set?
As the previous post emphasized, when we focus our attention on fewer priorities and work consistently and intensively on those, we are much more likely to make progress than if we have a laundry list of changes to make and work on those as the need/desire arises. So, for instance, if we want to get in good physical shape, dedicated daily time with gym equipment and running is a great start. That time with lifting, stretching, and running has to challenge us, which means we always tackle more when a given level of effort becomes routine. If our pursuit of goals is not focused, frequent, and intensive, we’re unlikely to sustain a consistent growth path.
We are most likely to succeed if our goals become our commitments. When I worked at a well-known hedge fund, the founder once commented that, “If it’s not in your calendar, it’s not part of your process”. This most certainly applies to our trading processes: researching ideas, turning ideas into trades, monitoring markets, and managing risk/reward. It equally applies to any of our purposeful activities, including the personal goals we set.
When we commit to our goal-seeking in the daily calendar and create a dedicated time for making efforts at improvement, we experience our desired future every day. “Anyone who fights for the future lives in it today,” Ayn Rand once observed. Fighting for the future daily means that we experience a piece of our future consistently, making it an intrinsic part of ourselves. What starts as passion and desire is expressed through regular effort and evolves into positive habit.
Imagine that you have a single hour every day to pursue one goal that will dramatically benefit your trading, your health, your mindset, or your relationships. Imagine that this is the first item to go into your calendar; routine work and home tasks have to fit around your one key objective. Every day, without fail, you are going to use a slice of your day to be your own performance coach and bring your real self closer to your ideal self. That way, you will spend a fraction of every day living in your future.
That is most likely to occur if we have very concrete targets to hit in pursuit of our goals. If we want to lose weight, we want to define a challenging but doable objective. If we are looking to improve our trading, we need to keep stats so that we can truly see our progress: number of winning/losing trades, average sizes of winners/losers, overall profitability, etc. If we are making improvements in our relationships, we want to very intentionally do more of the things that bring closeness, happiness, and fulfillment to our partners and to us.
Mental illness is when we live in the past every day. Mundane life is when we simply live life each day at a time. Greatness is when we live a consistent portion of each day in the future we are designing and building.
What future do you want to build? How can you immerse yourself in that future today?
Longer-term U.S. Treasurys are experiencing a bear market longer than what stocks endured during the 2000-02 dot-com crash and the 2007-08 financial crisis, according to DataTrek Research.
It has been three years and two months, or 800 trading days, since the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT, which invests in long-term Treasurys, reached an all-time high on Aug. 4, 2020. The fund has since fallen 50%, noted Jessica Rabe, co-founder at DataTrek.
A bear market is traditionally defined by an index falling by 20% or more from a recent high.
In comparison, the S&P 500 SPX recorded a 49% loss over 637 trading days from its cycle peak on March 23, 2000, to its trough on Oct. 9, 2002, as the dot-com bubble burst. The large-cap U.S. equity gauge fell 57% over 355 trading days from its peak in 2007 in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.
DATATREK
Long-term Treasury yields have surged lately, with the 30-year BX:TMUBMUSD30Y and the 10-year Treasury rates last week hitting their highest levels since 2007, respectively, before pulling back. The yield on the 10-year Treasury retreated 15.6 basis points to 4.627% on Tuesday, and the 30-year Treasury fell 11.5 basis points to 4.826% on Tuesday.
Bloomberg By Shelly Hagan The biggest US banks are poised to write off more bad loans than they have since the early days of the pandemic as higher-for-longer interest rates and a potential economic downturn are putting borrowers in a bind. JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co., which report third-quarter results Friday, will join Bank of America Corp. — which comes Tuesday — in posting roughly $5.3 billion in combined third-quarter net charge-offs, the highest for the group since the second quarter of 2020, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
5. Aerospace and Defense ETF Bounces From Israel Attack…Still Well Below Highs.
ITA down for the year…no bull run post Ukraine…50day thru 200day downside bearish end of September.
6. Private Credit The New Kings of Wall Street.
WSJ By Matt WirzHigh interest rates, driven by the Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer policy, are shaking up how corporate loans get done. Soaring rates brought down banks such as Credit Suisse and Silicon Valley Bank and forced others to reduce lending. As those lenders stepped back, private-credit fund managers stepped up, financing one jumbo loan for American corporations after another.
This shift is accelerating a trend more than a decade in the making. Hedge funds, private-equity funds and other alternative-investment firms have been siphoning away money and talent from banks since a regulatory crackdown after the 2008-09 financial crisis. Lately, many on Wall Street say the balance of power—and risk—has hit a tipping point.
“There’s been a steady progression, but since Covid and the banking crisis this year we’ve really seen the banks rein in risk,” said David Snyderman, head of alternative credit and fixed income at Magnetar Capital.
8. Homebuilders Held 200-Day with 8% Mortgage Rates
9. Third Political Party Support Hits Record Highs
10. Understanding and Overcoming FOBO (Fear of Better Options)
Darius Foroux FOBO or Fear of Better Options is a psychological phenomenon where someone avoids making a decision out of fear that there may be a better option.
FOBO is the nagging feeling that there might be a better choice out there, which leads to analysis paralysis.
Can you relate to the following? You’ve had a long day and decide to watch something nice on Netflix.
You keep browsing the hundreds of attractive movies and TV shows you haven’t seen and finally end up NOT watching something because you wasted an hour trying to decide.
Now, that’s not the end of the world. But when we let FOBO creep into our lives, it bleeds into more important areas.
Having FOBO makes decision-making stressful not just for us but for the people around us too.
By understanding the root causes of FOBO and having an effective strategy, you can regain control over your decisions and lead a more productive and stress-free life.
FOBO is as old as humanity
US venture capitalist, Patrick McGinnis, the one who coined the terms FOBO and FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), suggests that FOBO is not a new human behavior.1
“These feelings are biologically part of who we are. I call it the biology of wanting the best. Our ancestors a million years ago were programmed to wait for the best because it meant they were more likely to succeed.”
However, the widespread adoption of advanced technology and the internet has accelerated FOMO and FOBO. We can now easily compare ourselves with others (which brings out feelings of FOMO) and overwhelm ourselves with choices (leading to FOBO).
As McGinnis pointed out:
“Go on Amazon to buy a pair of white shoelaces and you have over 200 choices, whereas 50 years ago you would go to Woolworths and choose between three… The other factor – which is more emotional – is that FOBO is driven by narcissism, because when you have FOBO, you’re prioritizing your own interests far above anyone else’s, leaving everyone around you in limbo.”
To choose something, people have to let go of other options. When you overthink things, it becomes easier to mourn “what could have been.” And it gets harder to decide.
Are you a maximizer or satisficer?
Some psychologists have found a basis for the FOBO phenomenon. When it comes to decision-making, people can be divided into two groups: “Maximizers” or “satisficers”.2
Maximizers are people who make choices based on maximum benefit in the long term, while satisficers choose depending on what benefits them now.
For example, maximizers may pay more for a larger car than they actually need in case they want a bigger one later. While a satisficer is likely to pick the car that is good for now. Maximizers also tend to focus more on what was lost rather than what they already have.
Both groups have been studied extensively, but one study aimed to explore whether “maximizers show less commitment to their choices than satisficers in a way that leaves them less satisfied.”3
In other words, are maximizers more likely to be unhappy with their choice once they finally make it? The study’s conclusion: Absolutely yes. The researchers concluded:
“Maximizers miss out on the psychological benefits of commitment… High-level maximizers certainly cause themselves a lot of grief.”
Commitment is the path to genuine joy
Back in college, I had many classmates who didn’t know what they wanted. They kept changing courses, trying to “find” themselves.
Those folks eventually ended up hopping from one degree to the other, never finishing anything.
Here’s the thing: Most of us won’t know what we want. This applies to both big and small decisions.
Which course should you take in college? Should you pursue grad school? Is it a good idea to start a side business? What would you want for dinner: Italian or Chinese?
Maybe it works out. Or maybe not. But you can always pivot later. That’s the key.
Throughout my entire time in business school, I was convinced I would work for a large corporation. I thought I would get a traineeship and then spend the rest of my career climbing the corporate ladder to eventually become a bank CEO or something.
But as I was writing my master’s thesis in 2010, I realized that wasn’t the right option. The European economy was decimated and the chances of me landing a decent job were slim.
At the same time, my father wanted to start a business, so we ended up doing it together. Years later, I still ended up getting a corporate job, then quit only a year later to become a full-time writer.
If you had asked me ten years ago whether I’d known this is what I would want to do with my life — my younger self would likely say no!
But things worked out because I committed to all my choices.
That’s one other thing I learned about succeeding. It’s all about consistency.
So choose something you can be consistent about. And stick with it. When you do that, the best option automatically comes to you. And you don’t even have to chase it.
Found at Barry Ritholtz blog 
Netflix Documentary Yogi’s stats were off charts and10 world series rings 
