1. U.S. 33.9 vs. Developed 18.7 Markets Cape Ration Comparison
US vs. DM. “Developed ex-U.S. large caps have a CAPE ratio of 18.7 compared to 33.9 for U.S. large caps … U.S. large caps hover in the 96th percentile while developed ex-U.S. equities quietly sit in the 40th percentile, modestly cheaper than their long-term median.”
Daily ChartBook
2. Foreign Ownership of U.S. Assets
JPMorgan’s Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou broke down US stock & bond ownership by country and then set it against the total household financial assets of that country to determine “which countries are the most vulnerable or exposed…While these portfolio investments are often made via institutions such as insurance companies and pension funds, the ultimate owners are typically households via their financial claims on these institutions,” Panigirtzoglou said to explain using that metric. The takeaway is that aside from Norway and Switzerland where the figures are boosted by sovereign wealth funds that have huge stakes in US assets, “[d]espite the rather large figures often mentioned in dollar terms for the stock of US assets held by the rest of the world, relative to the total financial assets of households, the allocations typically stand at around 10-20%” (excluding Norway and Switzerland), which Panigirtzoglou called “rather low compared to the share of the US in global equity and bond indices,” suggesting that foreign investors don’t necessarily hold “too much” in the way of US assets.
Zachary Goldberg Jefferies
3. Canada Making New Highs Despite Tariffs/51st State
StockCharts
4. NVDA Net Sales 2022-2025
Fundstrat
5. Average Price of a Tesla
Charlie Bilelo
6. Japanese Public Companies Accelerate Buybacks
Capital Group
7. Imports Fell by a Record in April
Cresset Capital
8. India Overtakes Japan 4th Largest Economy in World
WSJ
9. Housing Market Changing to Buyers Market??
Home sellers vs. buyers. “There are 34% more sellers in the market than buyers. At no other point in records dating back to 2013 have sellers outnumbered buyers this much. In other words, it’s a buyer’s market.”
Redfin
10. Summer rentals in the Hamptons are down 30%
Via CNBC: Summer rentals in the Hamptons are down 30% from the same period in previous years, according to Judi Desiderio of William Raveis Real Estate.
Brokers who focus on ultra-high-end rentals are seeing an even bigger drop and say their rental business is down between 50% and 75%.
Some renters may be holding out for better deals or waiting to book, but brokers privately say there are other factors at play.
Summer rentals in the Hamptons are off to a chilly start to the season, as unrented homes start to pile up and sales slow, according to brokers.
Hamptons rentals are down 30% from the same period in previous years, according to Judi Desiderio of William Raveis Real Estate. Brokers who focus on ultra-high-end rentals say their rental business is down between 50% and 75%.
“People are holding on to their money,” said Enzo Morabito, head of the Hamptons-based Enzo Morabito Team at Douglas Elliman. “They don’t like uncertainty.”
Of course, Hamptons renters often wait until the last minute to book July and August rentals. Brokers say this year may be starting even later due to cold, rainy weather in May. Some renters may also be holding out for better deals in a Hamptons market that has become far more expensive after Covid.
Yet brokers and renters say privately that the volatility in the stock market and economic uncertainty sparked by the ever-changing tariff landscape has made some affluent renters and even some buyers hold off on a pricey Hamptons vacation this summer.
After the post-election euphoria in markets at the end of last year, brokers saw a surge in interest from potential renters in January and February. But as spring arrived, along with the April tariff announcements, the early interest didn’t translate into rentals.
Morabito said he represents several homeowners with large waterfront and luxury properties that typically would have been rented by March or April. Today, they’re still available. He said some homeowners who rent out three or four homes in the Hamptons during the summer may start to question their investments after this summer if renters don’t start emerging.
On the plus side, the rise in unrented inventory means potential bargains and choice for renters. Brokers say some listings have started lowering their prices by 10% to 20% in hopes of saving the summer. Some homeowners are adding more flexibility, allowing for shorter one- or two weeks stays in hopes of getting renters.
Gary DePersia of My Hampton Homes said the best houses in the Hamptons typically get rented early in the year. “But this year I have great rentals available in every town, from Southampton to Montauk.”
While tariffs and economic uncertainty may play a role in the slump, he said renters seem to have been waiting longer and longer every year, perhaps holding out for better deals. Eventually, he said, they end up renting.
“I think a number of people have deferred decisions, or they weren’t sure what [they were] going to do, go to Europe or the West Coast,” he said. “They will realize they want to be in the Hamptons; they have lot of friends and colleagues here and then they start scurrying around for rentals.”
Desiderio said the combination of weather and grim economic headlines made for a slow start that will quickly reverse.
“I believe this year there was so much ‘dark noise’ out there financially, and geopolitically, and the weather was not conducive to thinking of summertime,” she said. “There’s no doubt that by the time July 1 is upon us, all of the rentals will be taken this year.”
When it comes to home sales, the Hamptons real estate market remains fairly strong, despite relatively low inventory. Sales in the first quarter were down 12% from a year ago, although the median sales price jumped 13% to a record $2 million.
Brokers say when a quality home in the Hamptons is priced right, it sells immediately. They add that the surge in high-end sales in Manhattan over the past two months could also lift the Hamptons market.
“I just had two Canadians put a bid on an $18 million house, sight unseen” Morabito said. “When Manhattan comes alive, we always follow.”
1. Greater than 5% Gains in May? Next 12 Mhs has Never Been Lower
Bol
2. U.S. Treasury Bonds Worst 10-Year Rolling Annualized Returns in 90 Years
3. Target -50% from Highs
StockCharts
4. 114 Public Companies Now Own Bitcoin
Businesses are on a bitcoin buying spree. Publicly traded companies are stockpiling bitcoin as if it’s toilet paper in the year 2020, except they’re betting big money that the digital asset won’t go down the drain.
The latest businesses to go for it are GameStop, which announced its first bitcoin purchase, worth ~$500 million, yesterday, and Truth Social’s parent company, Trump Media ($DJT), which said on Tuesday that it’s raising $2.5 billion to create its own bitcoin treasury.
Corporate crypto ownership has risen alongside Bitcoin’s price recently:
There are now 114 publicly listed companies that own bitcoin, up from 89 at the beginning of April, according to BitcoinTreasuries.net.
Bitcoin’s price jumped nearly 50% from a low of ~$75,000 to an all-time high of nearly $112,000 over roughly the same period.
Follow the leader
Public companies are trying to copy Bitcoin’s largest corporate holder, a company aptly named Strategy (previously MicroStrategy).
Strategy bought up 580,000+ bitcoins (current value $62+ billion) over the past few years, transforming itself from a software business with Bitcoin holdings into a bitcoin holding company with a side of software.
Strategy has made itself an attractive investment for traders who want a stake in bitcoin but may not want to buy crypto directly.
So far, this tactic has done wonders for investors. Strategy’s stock skyrocketed 500% last year as bitcoin jumped 130%.
But Strategy now trades at ~1.6x the value of its bitcoin holdings, stoking concerns that the whole operation could come crashing down if the winds change. Still, enthusiasts say the cryptocurrency’s limited supply means bitcoin will become more valuable once it’s all been mined.
Crypto has friends in high places. The White House embrace of crypto is alive, Fox Business reported yesterday from the Bitcoin Conference 2025 in Las Vegas. Addressing the crowd, Vice President JD Vance said the administration is intent on stripping federal crypto regulations and passing laws allowing stablecoin-trading, which has made some lawmakers uneasy, because the Trump family majority-owns a stablecoin called USD1.
5. Thematic Mega-Trend for Industrial Metals
Barchart
Key point: There’s a multi-pronged thematic capex boom underway.
6. Data Center Investments Added One Percentage Point to GDP in Q1 2025
Michael Arouet
7. More on Yen Carry -$4 Trillion Deployed Globally Using Yen Funding
Carry Trade Unwinding with JGB Selloff Could Affect US Treasurys– Though the JGB crisis might appear to be unconnected to the fortunes of US Treasurys, there is indeed a relationship. The Japanese bond selloff is an unwinding of the yen carry trade. Thanks to comparatively low Japanese interest rates and a cheap yen, global investors borrow yen to invest in higher-yielding assets worldwide, particularly US Treasurys and blue-chip stocks. We estimate that nearly $4 trillion was deployed globally using yen funding. As Japanese yields rise, the carry trade becomes less attractive, forcing unwinding that pushes the yen higher and US stocks and bonds lower. Moreover, Japanese investors collectively hold $1.13 trillion in US Treasuries and they could repatriate their holdings as JGBs become competitive again.
Japan’s bond turmoil appears to be washing up on our shores. The 30-year Treasury yield surged past five per cent last week, its highest level since 2008, with much of the recent move attributed to the Japanese market rather than domestic factors. The US 10-year term premium, the yield differential between short-term and intermediate-maturity Treasurys, has climbed to nearly one per cent, a level not seen since 2014, as investors demand higher compensation for long-term risk.
Cresset Capital
8. Private Sector Leverage at Half the Level of 2008 Plus $7 Trillion in cash accounts
Private sector leverage today is an order of magnitude less than it was at its peak in 2008. This makes the economy much more resilient and able to withstand unexpected stresses.
PayChartBook
9. Energy Sector at 2021 Levels Relative to S&P
Semafor
10. Timeless Principles From History to Live a Successful Life
From Psychology Today:What Benjamin Franklin can teach you about leading a life of success.
Key points
Strong principles can guide our behavior for the better.
Benjamin Franklin wrote 13 principles of conduct which helped shape the path for his influential life.
Industriousness, frugality, transparency with others, and balance are key.
I recently read the biography of Benjamin Franklin,1 and it did not disappoint. Franklin grew up in working-class conditions, starting his career early on as a tradesman and then pivoting into writing for and producing newspapers. He decided he was destined for more at an early age. As such, he created 13 guiding principles on a long ship ride across the Atlantic, which shaped the path to becoming the esteemed scientist, writer, politician, and founding father over the next 50 years.
Unbeknownst to most, Franklin was also a savvy lay psychologist. In this article, I will describe his 13 necessary virtues and how modern psychology supports them:
Principle #1: Temperance: Eat not to dullness; drink not to elevation.
Franklin was a practical man who preferred concrete writing/thinking. His first principle calls for eating and drinking in moderation, not to excess.
Modern medicine confirms the wide variety of health benefits that come from avoiding overeating and obesity, including the promotion of longevity.2 Likewise, imbibing alcoholic beverages frequently cributes to an increased risk of a variety of diseases and all-cause mortality.3 More likely along the lines of Franklin’s thinking when creating this first principle, gluttony from food and alcohol can stifle personal productivity and diminish other’s perception of you.
Principle #2: Silence: Speak not but what may benefit others or yourself; avoid trifling conversation.
Franklin hosted a variety of philosophical clubs throughout his life. These clubs would often involve debates and intellectual sparring between members. Franklin cut his teeth during these debates, which cributed to him evolving into the politician, diplomat, and founding father that he became. In his professional and personal life, Franklin preferred deep conversation over small talk. Social scientists have found that deeper conversational topics promote social bonding more than small talk.
Principle #3: Order: Let all your things have their places; let each part of your business have its time.
Being organized in one’s physical spaces and in how one spends their time was important to Franklin. Both facets of this wisdom help us enhance personal productivity while simultaneously avoiding careless errors, such as losing an important document or missing an important business meeting. The order principle taps into the personality trait of conscientiousness, which is the strongest of the Big Five traits in predicting success metrics.
Principle #4: Resolution: Resolve to perform what you ought; perform without fail what you resolve.
Here we see another tried and true statement about honoring one’s word. Franklin was a strong believer in commitment and performing work dutifully. Those who stick to their professional and personal commitments are held in higher regard compared to those who fail to do so.7
Principle #5: Frugality: Make no expense but to do good to others or yourself (i.e., waste nothing).
Franklin did not tolerate financial wastefulness. He developed frugal habits early on in life. Spending money wisely was always fr and center of Franklin’s mindset. Even later in life, when Franklin was wealthy, he practiced and preached the importance of economical behavior. He often wore old robes to high-stakes political meetings (perhaps to a fault), and he was quick to instill a lesson in frugality whenever a family member requested something extravagant from him. Indeed, research suggests that materialistic aspirations are negatively associated with happiness and psychological health.
Principle #6: Industry: Lose no time; be always employed in something useful; cut off all unnecessary actions.
The industry principle was the golden rule for Franklin. The list of lifetime accomplishments on Franklin’s CV is as astonishing: He discovered electricity, understood the cause of colds (germs, not cold air), observed that exercise prevents disease and exercise intensity is more important than duration, linked illness across a variety of trades as being caused by lead poisoning, established police and firefighting systems, established a postal system between the colonies and worked as postmaster, and established the declaration of independence. Productivity yields meaning in life, which is an important component of global well-being.
Principle #7: Sincerity: Use no hurtful deceit; think innocently and justly, and, if you speak, speak accordingly.
Franklin was a proponent of telling the truth above all else. Franklin was a gentlemanly politician who preferred to discuss matters cordially and thoroughly. The sincerity principle operates similarly to authenticity, a construct that describes Franklin well and is associated with increased likability.
Principle #8: Justice: Wrong none by doing injuries or omitting the benefits that are your duty.
Treat others fairly and fulfill your moral duties. Avoid causing physical or emotional damage to others and go further by helping others whom you consider your adversary if it is your job to do so. This principle helped Franklin serve effectively as an intermediary between the U.S. and Britain during tense times. Psychology research confirms that seeking revenge can have negative consequences, personally and socially.
Principle #9: Moderation: Avoid extremes; forbear resenting injuries so much as you think they deserve.
The key idea here is to stay balanced in life. Franklin advocates for harmony across disciplines as evidence of the variety of accomplishments and careers he held. Social science research supports the idea that balance is important for avoiding burnout and maintaining creativity and consistency.
Principle #10: Cleanliness: Tolerate no uncleanliness in body, clothes, or habitation
Let this principle be your friendly reminder to bathe. Although perhaps less enlightening than the other principles, keep in mind this was before running water and the germ theory of disease. As silly as this sounds now, Franklin was forward-thinking in his cleanliness principle, which may have cributed to his significantly longer than average life. Health scientists are now unanimous in their recommendation of personal hygiene practices.
Principle #11: Tranquility: Be not disturbed at trifles, or at accidents common or unavoidable.
Franklin was a student of Stoic philosophy. If something negative happens to you that is outside of your crol, accept your bad luck and move on without brooding in negative emotions. Psychology research finds that ruminating on negative events hurts well-being and mental health.
Principle #12: Chastity: Rarely use venery but for health or offspring, never to dullness, weakness, or the injury of your own or another’s peace or reputation.
Keep it in your pants unless you need exercise or are trying to have kids with your partner. This one is a bit personal to Franklin: Franklin’s first child was conceived out of wedlock to a woman who was never revealed by Franklin nor discovered by historians. Franklin was criticized for his personal indiscretion by enemies throughout his career, and it took a toll on his marriage. Recent research finds that sexual misconduct is punished even more harshly than academic misconduct (misreporting or faking data).15 And, of course, all the news headlines of infidelity amongst household names support the proposition of the damage that can be done to one’s reputation.
Principle #13: Humility: Imitate Jesus and Socrates
Practice humility by learning from wise and virtuous role models. Franklin was a lifelong learner and an astounding scholar, receiving several honorary doctoral degrees despite having zero formal education. He believed in learning from others, which aligns well with the classic psychology finding of observational learning.
Via Perplexity: The “unwinding of the yen carry trade” refers to the rapid reversal of a popular investment strategy where investors borrow Japanese yen at low interest rates to invest in higher-yielding assets or currencies elsewhere1236. Here’s how it works and what happens during an unwind:
How the Yen Carry Trade Works
Investors borrow yen at very low interest rates (thanks to Japan’s historically low monetary policy).
They convert those yen into another currency (like US dollars) and invest in assets that offer higher returns, such as US bonds or stocks.
The profit comes from the difference between the low yen borrowing cost and the higher yield on the foreign asset.
What “Unwinding” Means
Unwinding occurs when investors reverse these trades—often suddenly—because conditions have changed (e.g., rising interest rates in Japan, a strengthening yen, or falling returns abroad).
Investors sell their foreign assets, convert the proceeds back into yen, and repay their yen loans.
This process increases demand for yen, causing it to appreciate, and puts downward pressure on the prices of the assets being sold.
Why It Matters
The unwinding can trigger sharp moves in currency and global asset markets, sometimes leading to significant volatility or even market sell-offs.
As more investors unwind, the process can become self-reinforcing: a stronger yen makes existing trades less profitable, prompting even more unwinding.
Recent examples (such as in 2024) have shown that the unwinding of the yen carry trade can lead to large declines in stock and bond markets worldwide.
In summary:
The unwinding of the yen carry trade is when investors quickly exit positions funded by cheap yen borrowing, leading to a stronger yen and falling prices for riskier assets globally. This process can amplify market volatility and have broad ripple effects across financial markets.
3. Japanese Yen Chart…Right Now Yen Stopped Going Higher at Resistance Going Back to 2023
StockCharts
4. The Bank of Japan Owns 50% of the Japanese Government Bond Market
The Bank of Japan still owns a staggering 50 per cent-plus of the Japanese government bond market. But with deflation now in the rear view, the BoJ has started quantitative tightening — allowing its existing bond holdings to slowly hit the market. And as this one massive buyer has become a net seller, Japanese bond yields are normalising — aka rising.
FT Notes that Quasi-governmental entities like Japan Post, Norinchukin, and GPIF together own over a trillion dollars of foreign bonds. The government could urge them to support the Japanese bond market. But that would likely involve selling their foreign bond holdings — most likely Treasuries — to buy JGBs. “What Happens in Japan does not Stay in Japan.”
5. Japan’s 40-Year Bond Yield Hits Highest Level Ever
Barchart
6. Annual Flows from Asia into U.S. Assets Peaked in 2004
Via Bloomberg: The annual flows into the US peaked in 2004 at $354 billion as the ascendance of China, after joining the World Trade Organization, started to reshape trade and investments in the region. In the early 2000s, almost every dollar earned by the largest Asian exporters to America was reinvested back into its equity and bond markets given the high returns and growth seen in the world’s biggest economy.
The Global Financial Crisis of 2008 was a “major wake-up call,” exposing the fragility and risks in US markets, says David Gibson-Moore, president and chief executive officer of Gulf Analytica, a Dubai-based wealth advisory firm with Asian clients. Over the last decade, “sovereign wealth funds, family offices and institutional investors across Asia have gradually been rebalancing their portfolios to reduce overexposure to US assets.”
By 2024, Asia’s capital inflows into the country had dropped to $68 billion, making up just 11% of trade surpluses with the US that had continued to expand. Exports had ballooned in the past few years, aided by a strengthening dollar and a rebound in American consumption after Covid.
7. China Overall Global Exports Going Higher
“This [EU] episode also suggests the US is not trying to isolate China, as at one point seemed plausible … April data show that it is finding new customers. US exports are down badly, but total exports are at an all-time high.”
Blommberg
8. Over the Last 10 Years…300 American Colleges Closed
9. Countries with Most Child Marriages
Semafor
10. The Surprising Way to Tame Stress Fast
Via Consumer Reports: Learning to breathe deeply can foster relaxation. These breathing exercises can help you get started.
Life can sometimes be stressful. Health worries, financial concerns—even watching the news—can get you wound up.
And feeling tense isn’t just unpleasant, it’s also bad for your health. Chronic stress can contribute to or worsen sleep problems, headaches, gastrointestinal issues, high blood pressure, and depression and anxiety.
But there’s an easy, natural way to counteract stress: Take a deep breath.
Why Deep Breathing Is Calming
High-stress situations make you feel tense because they activate your sympathetic nervous system. This triggers the well-known fight-or-flight response, says Willie E. Lawrence Jr., MD, a preventive cardiologist and chief medical officer with the Cardiac and Vascular Interventional Group in Dallas. As a result, you breathe quickly and shallowly, your heart rate spikes, and your arteries narrow, which raises your
Breathing deeply counteracts this. It activates your diaphragm, a muscle at the bottom of your ribs, which stimulates the vagus nerve that runs from the brain to the abdomen. This activates your parasympathetic nervous system, lowers stress hormones, slows breathing, and brings your heart rate and blood pressure back to normal. The result: You start feeling calmer and more relaxed. Slowing your exhalations can enhance this, Lawrence says.
Of course, deep breathing won’t eliminate all of your tension. But studies have found plenty of positive effects. A 2023 meta-analysis published in Scientific Reports found that using various breathing techniques was linked to less overall stress and improved mental health. A 2019 review of three studies connected using your diaphragm muscle while breathing to a long-term reduction in stress levels and a short-term drop in blood pressure.
How to Get the Benefits
Most people breathe shallowly throughout their day. To learn how to breathe deeply, lie on your back, slowly inhale—letting your rib cage expand and your stomach rise—then exhale, letting them contract and fall. Over time, deep breathing more of the time may become natural for you.
Juanita Guerra, PhD, a clinical psychologist in New Rochelle, N.Y., and Lawrence also suggest doing exercises that slow your breathing, which can offer a reset when you’re under pressure. Try practicing one or more of the moves below once a day. (Start with three to five cycles at a time.)
Box (or square) breathing: Inhale for four counts, hold your breath for four, exhale for four, and hold again for four.
4-7-8 breathing: Inhale through your nose for four counts, then hold your breath for seven. Then slowly exhale through your mouth for eight counts.
Alternate nostril breathing: Close your right nostril with your thumb and inhale. Close your left nostril with your ring finger and release your thumb; exhale, and then inhale. Close your right nostril and exhale. Start again.
More Ways to Relax
Deep breathing may be even more effective at reducing stress when it’s done as part of another activity. That also helps you incorporate deep breathing more easily into your life, Lawrence says. Consider these options.
Yoga, Pilates, and tai chi: These exercises focus on controlling your breath while you’re moving your body.
Mindful meditation: Paying close attention to your breathing helps you focus on the present moment and not think about other things. It’s been found to reduce levels of stress hormones.
Spending time outdoors: Research has found that being in a natural setting like a park for just 20 minutes can lower stress hormone levels. If it’s difficult to get outside regularly, some evidence suggests that looking out a window or viewing natural scenes on a screen may help.
Editor’s Note: This article also appeared in the June 2025 issue of Consumer Reports On Health.
1. Underweight U.S. Equity Exposure from Fund Managers
Fund managers are the most underweight equities since May 2023. Even after the recent run, their allocations have not budged.
Bol
2. Healthcare Sector Sentiment Record Lows
Via Barron’s: Jason Goepfert, founder and senior research analyst at SentimenTrader, notes that the ratio of the price of the healthcare index relative to the S&P 500 fell more than 35% from its most recent high, something that had only occurred seven times before over the past 100 years. That type of relative decline has typically been a good time to buy the sector, which has averaged a return of 17% over the subsequent 12 months.
But wait, there’s more. The Health Care ETF traded at a new 52-week low on May 15 before rallying to finish the day above the previous day’s high. That, too, is a rare occurrence—it’s happened just four other times since the ETF’s inception in 2000. Once again, returns have been quite good. The ETF has averaged a 21% rise over the 12 months following the signal, according to SentimenTrader data, including a 46% rise after getting triggered in 2009. That, too, suggests the sector is oversold and primed for a rally. “Trends in the sector are so bad that they indicate washout conditions, and investors seem to sense snapback potential,” Goepfert writes.
XLV Healthcare ETF Closes Below 200-Week Moving Average on Long-Term Chart
StockCharts
3. IBM Making New Highs
StockCharts
4. S&P Stocks with Dividend Yields Higher than 10-Year Treasury
At the moment, there are 40 S&P 500 stocks with higher dividend yields than the 10-year yield, and we list them below. Two Materials stocks top the list with 9%+ dividend yields and over 20% declines on the year.
Bespoke
5. Carbon Capture is Big Business
Ready, offset, go: Carbon capture is becoming a big business. Some of the world’s largest (and top-polluting) companies have come to rely on carbon offsets to hit net-zero targets. At present, these offsets are mostly natural solutions like tree-planting projects, but there’s been a huge upswing in CCS systems recently.
Last month, The IEA reported that while the first quarter of 2025 saw over 50 million metric tons of CO2 capture and storage capacity in operation, capacity is projected to grow strongly, reaching ~430 million metric tons by 2030.
A major driving force behind the surge in CCS developments is the eye-watering growth of Big Tech. According to analysis from Carbon Brief, tech companies like Microsoft and Apple generally use higher proportions of removal-based offsets than other industries like oil or airlines, and demand has only increased as these giants have gone all in on energy-guzzling data centers to power AI.
In its global carbon markets outlook for 2025, Bloomberg outlined that new contracted volumes of carbon removal credits increased by 74% last year, predicted that they’ll double this year, and detailed that Microsoft alone bought nearly two-thirds of new contracts last year, or ~5.1 million carbon removal credits.
6. Trump Announces 25-Year Plan to Accelerate Nuclear—Uranium a Couple Ticks from Break-Out to New Highs
StockCharts
7. Big Financials vs. Small Cap Banks….51% Spread in Returns Since Jan 2022
ConvertBond
8. Mortgage Rates 3-Year Range
Abnormal Returns
9. Best 50 Places to Work in America
Visual Capitalist
10. This Is Your Job Right Now
Via The Daily Stoic: It’s depressing. It’s confusing. It’s fraught. You don’t like where the world is going. You don’t like what’s happening.
What are we supposed to do? Especially when we are so powerless, as ordinary citizens, people who do not hold office, especially when we are matched against billionaires, against madness, against inertia, against so much.
“Remind yourself that your task is to be a good human being,” Marcus Aurelius writes in Meditations, in reaction, it must be said, against his own dysfunctional and cruel times. “Remind yourself what nature demands of people,” he added. “Then do it, without hesitation, and speak the truth as you see it.”
We are not emperors. We are not senators. But we are human beings, connected to all other human beings. Our job is to do our job—to do it virtuously and honestly. Our job as citizens is to participate in politics—not to cede the field simply because it disappoints and disgusts us. Our job is to help the people we can help closest to us—those who have lost their jobs, those who have been targeted, those who do not have the advantages we have.
And most of all, per the tradition of the Stoic Opposition (which included hallowed figures like Cato and Helvidius and Thrasea and Rutilius Rufus), is to courageously speak the truth as we see it. To not go along with lies. To call things what they are. To condemn what deserves condemnation. To stand up for principles and programs that deserved defense. To say who we are, which is good, which is kind, which is very much not on board with any of this and that even if we can’t stop it, we can say clearly and loudly that we do not accept it being done in our name.
3. 85% of Global Foreign Exchange Transactions in U.S. Dollars
Cresset Capital
4. Smartphone Shipments to China Drop to 2011 Levels
Sherwood
5. Gold vs. 20-Year Treasury Bond ETF
The Market Ear
6. Hedge Funds Shorting Heavy Again
MarketWatch
7. Uranium Held 2023 Low…+25% in One Month
StockCharts
8. U.S. Housing Shortage Over? Listings Have Tripled Since 2022
Via Zach Goldberg Jefferies: With resale inventory on the U.S. Housing Market hitting nearly 1 million listings this spring. Listings bottomed in April 2022 at around 379k. Since then, they have nearly tripled. To the highest level of supply since 2019. Redfin: U.S. home prices ticked down -0.05% in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, the first month-over-month decline since September 2022 according to the Redfin Home Price Index (RHPI), which uses the repeat-sales pricing method to calculate seasonally adjusted changes in prices of single-family home. April marked only the third time that the RHPI has posted a month-over-month decline, with the other months—August and September in 2022—coming after a series of rapid interest rate rises. It’s worth noting that April’s decline (-0.05%, rounded to -0.1%) is minor and that RHPI data is subject to revision.
9. A 56-year-old Personal Trainer on how to Build Muscle after 40 — with Rucking, Bodyweight, and Short Workouts
A personal trainer in his 50s got back in shape after colon cancer treatment with simple workouts.
His routine includes rucking, walking with a weighted pack to build muscle and endurance in less time.
He recommends shorter, more consistent workouts instead of exhausting yourself for long-term gains.
Via Business Insider: Shorter workouts could be the key to getting in shape and staying that way into your 50s and beyond, according to a personal trainer who learned to work smarter instead of harder.
Bill Maeda, 56, said recovering from a health crisis taught him that short, simple, and consistent is key to building muscle and fitness long-term.
“My raw horsepower is less than it was 10 or more years ago, but I don’t care,” he told. “The difference is now, I’m moving better, and it’s fun.”
Inspired by Bruce Lee to start training at 8 years old, Maeda had been a personal trainer for decades, even landed a few movie roles with his muscular physique. But in 2012, he was diagnosed with stage 3 colon cancer in his early 40s, requiring major emergency surgery and half a year of chemotherapy.
Recovering from cancer made him realize that focusing on his physique over his health was like building a nice car without proper brakes or steering.
“I wanted a strong frame. I wanted a powerful engine, but I spent so much time building this car, I forgot how to drive it. That’s what I’m doing now,” he said.
Maeda slowly rebuilt his fitness, one rep at a time, and said shorter and simpler can be better for long-term gains.
Build a foundation on the basics: deadlifts, squats, push-ups
Maeda’s current workouts on social media often feature unusual exercises, but he said most people shouldn’t do complicated workouts unless they’ve mastered the basics. You don’t need elaborate movement to build muscle, and the risk of injury can increase as an exercise become more intricate.
“Well into my forties, I didn’t do anything fancy. It was deadlifts, squats, kettlebell swings, just a lot of very fundamental movements,” Maeda said. “Those are what built my physical base, what people see now, the muscle I carry.”
To gain muscle and strength, focus on progressive overload, performing the same exercises over time with gradually increasing weight.
From there, you can explore variations of exercise to keep workouts fun and challenging while improving mobility, agility, and balance.
“I do less of that heavy basic lifting because of the time I have now, I’d rather put it towards movements that spread the stress of what I’m doing more evenly throughout my body,” Maeda said.
Work out in less time by rucking
One regular part of Maeda’s fitness routine is rucking, or walking with weight. He typically carries a 45-pound backpack for 30 minutes a day, at least five days a week, while walking his dogs.
Working out too hard can backfire. A personal trainer shares 4 red flags and 4 green flags to optimize your routine.
He first starting rucking as he was slowly rebuilding his endurance after colon cancer. He began with short walks wearing a backpack full of bricks and added weight (and better gear through his partnership with fitness brand GORUCK) over time.
Building muscle and endurance comes from challenging your body over time. Rucking provides a convenient way to work the muscles during activities that are already a part of a routine, like walking dogs or taking a hike.
For Maeda, it added an extra challenge without taking more time out of his day.
“It got me to a point where just walking seemed like a total waste of time,” he said. “If I’m doing something that often and I can just put a 45-pound backpack on, that’s a lot of minutes under load.”
Ending a workout early can pay off
In his younger years, Maeda embraced the “no pain, no gain” mindset of tough exercise, but now warns against it
“I don’t personally recommend programs that are aggressive and based on sucking it up and willpower. Life is hard enough,” Maeda said.
He said it’s better not to be completely exhausted after exercise, so you’re energized and excited for the next workout, even if that means cutting your workout short.
“Consistency over days is way more important than a hard weekend warrior workout that means you’re sore for the rest of the week,” he said.
Try this no-equipment workout for beginners
Maeda recommends starting with a workout you can do at home.
To complete his “exercise ladder,” do:
one squat, one push-up;
two squats, two push-ups;
three squats, three push-ups;
continue up to five reps, or until the next set starts to feel daunting.
Over time, you can repeat the workout, aiming to reach a higher number of reps as you progress, or change up the exercises (doing lunges and pull-ups, or single-leg deadlifts and burpees).
10. 11 Personal Finance Goals for Your 40s
Via Art of Manliness: Years ago, we published articles on personal finance goals to strive for in your 20s and in your 30s.
Now that I’m in my 40s, I decided to revisit this series to see if I needed to update my financial goals in my first decade of midlife.
Your 40s are an interesting time, money-wise. Many men enter their peak earning years during this decade. Yet their expenses often increase significantly at the same time. High-school-aged kids may need cars, and those same teenagers may subsequently need help paying for college. Your parents are retiring and aging into their 70s, and you’re starting to think about what financial support they may require in the last decades of their lives. Meanwhile, your own retirement shifts from a distant abstraction into an approaching reality.
During this decade where you’re both starting to enjoy the fruits of your labors, but feeling the pressure of additional demands, you want to make moves to ensure you’re on stable ground now and in the future.
Below are 10 goals, backed by research and the advice of personal finance experts, that will help you not just survive your 40s, but thrive in that decade and in the decades to come:
1. Consider Consulting a Financial Advisor
With higher income and more responsibilities, your financial life is more complex in your 40s.
So consider hiring a fee-only financial advisor to help you navigate these complexities. Fee-only financial advisors don’t make money from selling financial products like insurance or mutual funds, reducing conflicts of interest.
You can pay a fee-only financial advisor by the hour to get advice on planning for retirement, paying for college and potential weddings, updating your estate plan, and reviewing insurance.
If you’re looking for more comprehensive guidance, you can set up an arrangement where the financial advisor gets a percentage of the assets they manage for you.
2. Maintain a Robust Emergency Fund (6–12 Months of Expenses)
By now, you should have a solid emergency fund. In your 40s, the goal is to increase its balance to match the expenses you likely have as a middle-aged man.
Aim for at least six months of essential expenses, or up to a year if you’re in a volatile industry or single-income household. Job hunts for people in their 40s often take longer than for those who are younger. If you were to lose your income, a six-month cash reserve ensures you can keep paying the mortgage and feeding the family while you find your next role. It also prevents you from raiding retirement accounts or going into debt.
Keep this fund in a liquid, low-risk account. Don’t touch it unless it’s a true emergency; replenish it as soon as possible if used.
3. Maximize Your Income
For many men, their 40s are the highest-earning decade of life. The median annual salary for men usually peaks between 45 and 54. Make it a goal to leverage these years as much as possible to set yourself up for true financial security.
To make the most of this decade, you’ll want to maximize your income.
Raises won’t usually fall into your lap. You’ll need to ask for them proactively.
If your boss won’t budge on giving you a raise, consider switching roles or even companies. Changing jobs mid-career can often substantially increase your salary, but so can moving up the ranks at your current job; be sure to check out our podcast on getting a promotion for some solid advice on how to continue to work your way toward the literal or metaphorical corner office.
Additionally, look into creating extra income streams through side businesses or freelancing. At this stage in your career, you probably have valuable expertise others will pay for. Consider moonlighting as a consultant. The extra income you earn now could even evolve into part-time work after you retire.
It’s worth noting that your 40s are not only peak earning years, but may be the last years you have your kids at home. You don’t want to be so focused on maximizing your income that you miss out on maximizing the time you spend with them before becoming an empty nester. It’s a tough line to walk, but strive to strike a balance between filling up your financial treasury, and your memory bank.
4. Avoid Lifestyle Creep
It’s natural to want to reward yourself as your income rises — to finally get that dream car, upgrade to a bigger house, or take more vacations. And you should allow yourself to start splurging a little more in your 40s; you’ve earned it by grinding through your 30s.
But don’t go overboard; every dollar spent on upgrading your lifestyle is one less dollar available for debt reduction or savings. Remember, too, that the cost of another car or a bigger house isn’t just the initial purchase price, but what it will cost you in maintenance, insurance, etc.
Start enjoying yourself more in your 40s, while saving enough to ensure that the next four to five decades are enjoyable as well.
5. Double-Down on Retirement Savings (Aim for 3X Your Salary)
In your 40s, retirement is no longer the abstract-seeming thing it was in your 20s. It will potentially be a concrete reality for you in twenty or so years.
Experts suggest having about three times your annual salary saved by age 40. Don’t worry if you’re not there yet — many aren’t — but use that benchmark to motivate you.
In your 40s, strive to save at least 15% of your income (ideally 20% or more) for retirement. As you save for retirement, take full advantage of tax-advantaged accounts like 401(k)s and IRAs.
How should you allocate your retirement savings in your 40s? When I put this question to personal finance expert Nick Maggiulli, he suggested that for many, it might mean reducing risk due to the increased liabilities they likely have in midlife: “In your 40s and 50s, you should consider reducing this risk to fit your liability profile better. For example, you could consider going from an 80/20 stock/bond portfolio to a 70/30 (or something similar). The key here is not maximizing your net worth, but maximizing your chance of long-term survival.”
6. Eliminate Non-Mortgage Debt and Work Toward Being Mortgage-Free
Ideally, you’ll have paid off all non-mortgage debt in your 30s. If you haven’t, make that a priority in your 40s. Aggressively tackle any lingering debts, like car loans and student loans.
Once you’ve eliminated all non-mortgage debt, start focusing on your mortgage. While you don’t necessarily need to pay it off during your 40s, you should have a clear plan for eliminating it as soon as financially feasible.
If you can swing it, start making extra principal payments. Even one extra payment a year (or adding, say, $200 extra each month) can knock years off a 30-year loan. Check with your lender that extra payments go toward the principal.
7. Bolster Kids’ College Funds (But Not at the Expense of Retirement)
In your 40s, your children may be in high school, and college costs are looming. Ideally, you started a 529 account for your kids in your 30s; if not, start one now. With 529 accounts, gains and distributions/withdrawals for education aren’t taxed.
As you save for your kids’ education, don’t do so at the expense of your retirement. Your retirement should always be the priority when saving. Your kids have options for education financing, but you don’t have one for retirement.
8. Plan for Aging Parents and Family Care Responsibilities
More than half of 40-somethings are either raising children under 18 or financially supporting adult children, and have at least one parent aged 65 or older. About a quarter of adults in their 40s and 50s actively provide financial assistance or regular care to their aging parents — a percentage that only increases as members of this “sandwich generation” and their parents grow older.
Prepare for a future with aging parents by talking to Mom and Dad about their financial health. Do they have sufficient retirement savings, a will, power of attorney, or healthcare directives? Knowing this upfront can prevent surprises during a crisis.
Second, discuss future care preferences. When their health declines, would your parents prefer living with family or moving into an assisted living facility? Clarifying this sets expectations and shapes future plans. If you have siblings, hold a meeting to define roles and discuss shared costs.
Finally, consider preparing financially by creating a “parent fund” for predictable expenses like medical bills or housing.
Check out the book Mom and Dad, We Need to Talk: How to Have Essential Conversations With Your Parents About Their Finances. I thought it had a lot of good advice.
9. Do an Insurance Check-up
If you bought term life insurance in your 30s (as we recommended), revisit your coverage. Major changes — like more kids, a bigger mortgage, or a higher income — might require additional coverage. A common guideline is 10–15X your annual salary, ensuring your family could replace your income if needed. Term policies are still affordable in your 40s (though premiums rise), so lock in coverage until kids graduate college and your mortgage is paid off.
Also consider umbrella insurance to protect accumulated wealth from liability lawsuits, and disability insurance to replace your income if you can’t work.
10. Do an Estate Plan Check-Up
You should have started your estate planning in your 30s; in your 40s, it’s time to do a check-up.
Revisit and update your will to reflect current realities, like new assets or guardians for your kids.
Double-check beneficiary designations on retirement accounts, insurance, and investments; these override your will, so accuracy is crucial.
Ensure you have durable powers of attorney (for financial decisions) and healthcare proxies, naming people you trust.
Explore advanced strategies like trusts or charitable giving if your estate is sizable.
Communicate with your spouse and estate executor about your plans and where key documents are stored.
11. Plan Your Next Chapter of Life
Having a clear retirement vision guides your financial choices today. Outline your ideal retirement. When will you retire? Where will you live? How will you spend your time? Cruising? Volunteering? Working part-time? Answers to these big-picture questions will shape how you save in your 40s.
Next, calculate your retirement “number.” Most aim for savings that generate 70–80% of pre-retirement income annually. Use retirement calculators or a financial planner to check your progress, adjusting your savings or expectations if needed.
Finally, prepare for potential healthcare costs. You might live into your 90s, so your savings could need to last over 30 years after you retire.
Your 40s are a busy and sometimes stressful decade, but with thoughtful planning and strategic actions, you can balance today’s demands with tomorrow’s dreams. Use these goals as your financial roadmap, and you’ll enter your 50s with confidence and clarity, knowing you’ve laid a strong foundation for the years ahead. I’ll see you in 10 years with an article on financial goals for that decade of life!
