The Zweig Market Breadth Thrust has triggered for the 17th time in history. The previous 16 times have resulted in an S&P 500 average gain of 16.35% after 6 months and 23.78% after 12 months. The S&P 500 has NEVER been red after 6 months and 12 months following the trigger.
Real Investment Advice
Perplexity
2. Tesla Rallied Right Back to 200-Day Moving Average…
StockCharts
3. Kyle Bass on International Stocks
Kyle Bass
4. Bitcoin ETFs $2.9B Inflows
Bitcoin flows. “Last week, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of 31,323 $BTC, equivalent to approximately $2.9 billion. In BTC terms, it was the fifth-largest weekly inflow on record. In dollar terms, it ranks even higher – the third-largest inflow.”
Glassnode
5. Container Bookings from China Falling
Vizion
6. Gold Short-Term Overbought
Daily Shot Brief
7. Total Weight of Top 10 Companies S&P 500…Rise Since 2017
The Irrelevant Investor
8. Plane Ticket Prices Flat for 15 Years
Sherwood
9. Top Colleges Are Too Costly Even for Parents Making $300,000
Many families earn too much to get meaningful aid but too little to cover tuition out of pocket.
Bloomberg
10. Win the Morning
Via The Daily Stoic: One of the most relatable moments in Meditations is Marcus Aurelius’s argument with himself at the beginning of Book 5. It’s a struggle he’s clearly faced many mornings—as have so many of us: He knows he must get out of bed, yet desperately wants to stay under the warm covers.
It’s relatable…but it’s also impressive. Marcus didn’t actually have to get out of bed. He didn’t really have to do anything. As emperor, he could do as he pleased. One of his predecessors, Tiberius, basically abandoned the throne for an exotic island. Marcus’s adopted great-grandfather Hadrian hardly spent any time in Rome at all. The emperor had all sorts of prerogatives, and here Marcus was insisting that he rise early and get to work.
Why? Because Marcus understood that winning the morning was essential to winning the day—and ultimately, life itself. Though he wouldn’t have known the phrase “the early bird gets the worm,” he grasped that a day well-begun is half done. By pushing himself to do something difficult, by committing to what he knew he was born to do and loved to do, Marcus set himself up for daily success (more on this in our How To Read Meditations guide, by the way).
This is a practice we must follow today and every day. We should rise early, without delay. We should nourish ourselves properly. We should maintain good habits. We should tackle our most important task first thing. By winning the morning, we reduce the power that the rest of the day—much of which lies beyond our control—holds over us.
Consecutive gains. From Tuesday-Thursday, the S&P 500 was up “at least 1.5% for three days in a row. This isn’t stuff you see in bear market rallies or short covering rallies. You see this before times of strong performance. Higher 10 out of 10 times a year later and up 21.6% on average.”
Ryan Detrick
2. Gold Articles All Over the Weekend Financial Press
All told, there is now an estimated $4 trillion worth of gold held by central banks, and $5 trillion by private investors. Calculated against $260 trillion for all financial assets, including stocks, bonds, cash, and alternatives, that works out to a global gold portfolio allocation of 3.5%, a record.
Barron’s
3. Major Indexes and Max Drawdowns
Liz Ann Sonders
4. Foreign Investors are at Max U.S. Equities with Little Currency Hedging
Bloomberg
5. Household Wealth -$6T YTD
MarketWatch
6. Despite Volatility…10-Year Treasury is Back to March Levels
Bespoke
7. Americans Still Spending
WSJ
8. Asian Countries Opinion of China
Semafor
9. The Sinking Birth Rate in U.S.
Eric Finnigan
10. 6 Under-the-Radar Mindsets You Need to Excel
How to problem-solve at a higher level.
Key points:
Seek unsolved problems to enhance pattern recognition and problem-solving skills.
Innovate by sourcing knowledge from unexpected fields and perspectives.
Embrace abstraction to apply concepts to diverse challenges.
Via Psychology Today: The mindsets that separate extraordinary from average aren’t just about productivity or career advancement. They’re the same patterns that help you navigate life’s complexities.
While most self-improvement advice focuses on discipline and routine, these six under-the-radar mindsets develop something more fundamental: your capacity to learn, adapt, and discover what others miss. They’re about seeking novel challenges, embracing unexpected discoveries, and finding connections where others don’t look. Whether you’re wanting to excel at work, at self-management, at home, or at sports, these mindsets can help you be more innovative, resilient, and a better problem-solver.
1. You Need To Be Attracted To Problems You Haven’t Seen (Or Solved) Before
School and corporate life train us to feel most comfortable applying familiar formulas to familiar problems, again and again.
But to excel, you need to seek out problems you haven’t already seen and solved. That’s what grows your problem-solving skills and intuition.
Why it’s important for excellence: Knowledge comes from recognizing patterns — and you won’t encounter enough different patterns without exposing yourself to new kinds of problems.
2. You Need To Be Open To Learning Something More Important Than What You Set Out To Learn
The history of science and innovation is full of examples of unintentional discoveries that turned out to be more important than solving the intended target problem. For instance, French polymath Henri Poincaré expected his approximations would solve the problem he was working on. When they unexpectedly didn’t, it led him to develop chaos theory!
The problems we solve or discoveries we make along the way often end up being the most valuable part of the experience. This applies psychologically too.
Why it’s important for excellence: If you’re not open to this, you’ll miss your biggest discoveries.
3. You Have To Be Interested In Abstraction
Abstraction allows us to carry ideas like tools and apply them to new problems. For example, I was recently introduced to two paradoxes. First, the “Barber Paradox”: If there’s only one barber on an island who shaves everyone who doesn’t shave themselves, the question is: who shaves the barber?
Next, consider the “Baldness Problem”: If a person has no hair, they’re bald. With one hair, still bald. A few hairs? Bald. But when do they stop being bald? How many hairs is too many?
Within a week of learning about these ideas, I encountered situations these paradoxes helped me understand. They had seemed like curious puzzles at the time, but they turned out to be unexpectedly useful.
For example, the Baldness Problem might help you understand tensions arising from different people’s definitions of “clean.” The Barber Paradox can help you spot self-referential patterns of circular logic.
Why it’s important for excellence: Without abstraction, it’s hard to carry knowledge with you. We need this to spot patterns we wouldn’t otherwise recognize. Another example here.
4. You Have To Be Interested In A Variety Of Ways Of Solving A Problem
Imagine a non-curious person learning math. They learn one method for solving a specific type of problem—say quadratic equations—and once they’ve got it, they’re not interested in learning any others. Why would they do that? It seems inefficient, like flogging a dead horse.
Now, contrast that with a curious person who, after learning one method, sees a video showing nine other ways to solve the same problem and is excited to try them all.
Why it’s important for excellence: We need to build mental flexibility and the intuition that problems can generally be solved in many different ways. For example, if storming a castle’s main gate isn’t working, we step back and try to view the problem from a completely different angle. Shifting how we approach familiar problems helps us apply the same flexibility to more complex, unfamiliar ones.
Knowing multiple ways to solve a problem also builds resilience. If your usual method isn’t available, you’ll have other strategies. Again this applies psychologically. For example, if you’re injured and can’t exercise to relieve your stress, you need other methods.
5. You Have To Be Interested In Exploring The Long Tail Of Your Strengths
We often focus on obvious strengths that influence success, like a visionary entrepreneur or a runner with a high VO2 max.
However, at elite levels, everyone possesses these top strengths. What sets people apart is the long tail of their strengths, like fast recovery from hard workouts or high-carb fueling tolerance.
Why it’s important for excellence: Without understanding your full range of strengths, you won’t fully appreciate how to use them. It’s crucial to recognize them, see how they might be applied in unconventional ways, and be willing to experiment—even if it means stepping outside conventional methods.
6. You Have To Be Interested In Finding Knowledge In Unexpected Places
Imagine a running coach who only looks for new methods from other running coaches or running journals. Now, picture a coach who also seeks ideas from cycling. Or someone who explores models of recovery, mental toughness, and innovation from fields completely outside of sports. Then, think of a coach who disagrees with another on almost everything but decides to adopt an interesting method they come up with.
Why it’s important for excellence: We become more innovative when we’re open to learning from a wide variety of sources, not just from the usual places or our buddies.
Your Mindset Determines Your Approach to Challenges
Mindset shifts change your approach in ways that routine and discipline alone cannot. They push you beyond applying familiar formulas to familiar problems. While most people scramble for quick wins, your mindset can help you see deeper connections between knowledge sources that others miss. Excellence isn’t just working harder—it comes from sharpening your reasoning skills and problem-solving intuition.
If you’re interested in improving your reasoning further, try this guide.
My Q1 breakdown of the emerging opportunities, overlooked market inefficiencies, and key strategic shifts most investors didn’t see coming. Read it here.
2. China Large Cap Stocks Nowhere for 17 Years
Google Finance
3. China Pulling Private Investments in U.S.
The Kobeissi Letter
4. Gold Trading at 100x Silver
Bespoke
5. IWM Russell 2000 Small Cap Bullish Triangle
StockCharts
6. S&P Underperforming MSCI All World by Most in 32 Years
Lisa Abramowicz
7. MBA Mortgage Applications Falling
Barchart
8. Argentina Driving Free Trade.Imports Increased by 42%…Exports 10%
Perplexity
9. Generic Drugs 90% of Prescriptions in America
Sherwood
10. Work Ethic vs Discipline
Via Seth Godin: A solid work ethic drives someone to show up, even when they’d rather not. If there’s work on their desk, they’ll take it on.
Discipline, on the other hand, is the ability to say ‘no’ to free up focus and resources for the work that’s worth saying ‘yes’ to.
‘Sell America’ gathers steam. The dollar plunged to a three-year low, as a US trade war and threats against the Federal Reserve drove “Sell America” trades. President Donald Trump’s renewed push to fire the Fed chair, in particular, has undermined the haven status of US assets, resulting in a combined stock, currency, and bond weakness not seen since 1981, according to Sherwood News. Pension funds worldwide are reassessing whether to keep betting on the US, while Chinese state investors are pulling back from US private equity. Traders have flocked to gold, which hit a fresh record Monday, as well as German bonds. The “exorbitant privilege of the US,” Commerzbank’s chair said, “may not be carved in stone.”
Semafor
2. Gold ETF Flows Hit Record Level
Macro Charts
3. Swiss Franc Safety Currency Rallies to New Highs vs. Dollar Sell Off
StockCharts
4. Japanese Yen Rally
StockCharts
5. Dow Jones 50-day thru 200-day to Downside…Not Sure of History
StockCharts
6. Growth Vs. Value 2025
Robertson Stephens
7. Ethereum Bounce Yesterday…Hit Lowest Valuation in History vs. Bitcoin
Barchart
8. Ex-US Stocks See Record Volatility…ACWX Did Not Make New Highs on International Rally
From Nasdaq Dorsey Wright: International equities have held up better than US stocks during the most recent bout of global uncertainty. The iShares MSCI ACWI ex US Index ETF (ACWX) fell into correction territory on April 4 with a 10% decline from its most recent high on March 19. The fund ultimately bottomed out 13.8% below that high on April 8. Over the next couple of weeks, ACWX advanced sharply to notch a 10% rally last Thursday, April 17, officially moving the fund out of correction territory.
The 20-day peak-to-trough move for ACWX was the shortest correction the broad international fund has seen since 2009, spanning less time than the previous 18 corrections. The nine-day rally was also the quickest ascent we have seen since 2011, outside of the two-day rally during COVID that saw ACWX climb out of correction territory in record time. Meanwhile, US stocks still sit in correction territory, despite the 9.5% upside movement seen from the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on April 9, the day after the recent low.
Voronoi
9. More Take Private Deals than IPOs
Private equity capitalized on take-private opportunities in the first quarter of 2025 as the market grappled with the new reality of tariffs and prolonged uncertainty around deals.
Take-private deal value increased 24.6% quarter-over-quarter, according to PitchBook’s Q1 2025 US PE Breakdown, with one big deal driving much of the action.
That prominent deal occurred in March, when consumer retail sector-focused investor Sycamore Partners acquired Walgreens in a transaction valued at $23.7 billion, the largest PE-backed take-private transaction over the last two years.
