Topley’s Top 10 – October 07, 2022

1. 2000-2021 Returns…S&P Not the Winner.

JP Morgan Guide to the Markets

https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/?gclid=Cj0KCQjw-fmZBhDtARIsAH6H8qi8JUsh8a2jMW-dL7i9oVNRYNU1duITvfMD4z-MSZU8krg_Ws_nR9waAoyoEALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds


2. Presidential Cycle Stock Market Seasonality

Dan Stratemeier Managing DirectorEquities, Event Driven Strategies-Jefferies


3. Rally in Market Happen without Stock Buybacks and Retail Investor Buying.

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading.

This rally has been occurring with nearly 70% of companies are in the “Buyback Blackout” ahead of Earnings

And without retail participation – According to AAII survey results, retail investors are selling in size to raise cash for the first time since the COVID crash.


4. PKW Buyback ETF Holding 200 Week Moving Average

www.stockcharts.com


5. Carmax -55% …No More Used Car Price Inflation

www.stockcharts.com


6. Canadians Own 32% of American Farmland

Noah Wicks

https://www.agri-pulse.com/articles/17107-foreign-interests-keep-buying-us-acreage-with-focus-on-southwest


7. Solar Power and Batteries Account for 60% of Planned New U.S. Electric Generation

From Barry Ritholtz Blog

https://ritholtz.com/2022/10/10-thursday-am-reads-405/


8. Sequencing Human Genome Getting Cheaper and Cheaper.

CHARTR.com Nobel efforts Svante Pääbo, a Swedish scientist, has won the Nobel Prize for his reconstruction of a full genome for Neanderthals and other extinct hominins. Pääbo’s prize, officially the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, carried a 10m Swedish Kronor prize (~$920k USD) and was the first of the six awards to be announced this week. The impressive work, which saw Pääbo pioneer methods to extract and analyze DNA from Neanderthal bones, is experimentation that will hopefully get easier over time, as the cost of genome sequencing continues to fall.

Indeed, Illumina — a company which has some 80% share of the global gene sequencing market — unveiled two new sequencing instruments this week. The company claims these tools will bring the cost of sequencing a full genome to less than $240 and give the company capacity to sequence ~20,000 genomes a year, up from 7,500. Tell those numbers to a scientist from the year 2000, when one human genome sequence would cost close to $100m, and they’d likely laugh you out of the lab.

The whole gene

What about that $99 at-home DNA test kit you bought online? That only takes a snippet, usually around 0.02% of your DNA, using clues to predict your disease risks and ancestry.

Whole-genome sequencing, on the other hand, provides 4,000 times more data on your DNA than at-home tests, and is likely to lend a hand in major medical breakthroughs. The process helped the speedy creation of vaccines for Covid-19, can help the early detection of disease outbreaks, identify inherited disorders and even characterize genetic cell mutations in cancer patients.

www.chartr.com


9. RANKED: Alaska, New Mexico and Tennessee top the list of states with the highest rates of murder, rape and other violent crime, while Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont have the lowest, study says

  • Alaska has the highest violent crime rates: 837.8 per 100,000 people
  • The Last Frontier has more men and more heavy drinkers than elsewhere in the U.S. 
  • Lawmen are spread thin across the vast 665,000 square mile territory
  • Indigenous people also make up 19.6 percent of the state’s population
  • Low-crime states like Maine and Vermont benefit from ‘social safety nets’, experts say
  • Still, most crime is ‘hyper-concentrated’ in rough parts of a city, says expert Rafael Mangual

By JAMES REINL, SOCIAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT, FOR DAILYMAIL.COM

RANKED: Alaska, New Mexico and Tennessee have highest rates of murder, rape and other violent crime | Daily Mail Online


10. 8 Foods That Contribute to Anxiety and Depression

… and how to limit or avoid products that can jeopardize mood.

 

KEY POINTS  Susan McQuillan

 

  • Some foods are likely to affect your levels of anxiety and depression more than others.
  • Commercially processed foods can negatively affect your mental health.
  • Common junk foods are the worst offenders; they contain too much sugar or unhealthy fats, and are nutritionally depleted.

 

When university and medical school researchers from North and South America* set out to explore the theory that processed foods contribute to poor mental health, they found ultra-processed foods (UPF) to be the worst offenders. Ultra-processed foods are commercially prepared convenience food products that contain little to no whole food ingredients, often lack essential nutrients, and often contain additives, such as flavorings, colorings, and other products that make the food more appealing to consumers. In other words, they in no way resemble the original food sources from which they are made.

UPF products are generally quick and easy to prepare or ready to eat out of their packaging, and they are often less expensive than whole foods, especially when they are available from generic or store brands. That helps explain why more than 70 percent of all packaged foods sold in the United States are deemed UPF, and those food products represent around 60 percent of all calories consumed in this country.

Upon review of self-reported, nationally representative dietary records of more than 10,000 men and women age 18 and older, the study authors were able to name the eight UPFs most commonly consumed. These include:

  • Sugar-sweetened drinks
  • Reconstituted meat products
  • Packaged snack foods
  • Chips
  • Breakfast cereals
  • Cookies
  • Cake
  • Bread

The researchers also collected data from the participants to measure three specific mental health symptoms: general mild depression, number of anxious days, and number of mentally unhealthy days. They found that those participants who reportedly consumed the most UPFs had a significantly higher rate of mild depression and reported significantly more anxious and mentally unhealthy days.

Previous research has found that food additives used in UPF, such as artificial sweeteners and emulsifiers, are linked to changes in the brain, increased inflammation, and altered metabolism. Other studies have found that people who lack essential nutrients in their diet and consume large amounts of food high in sugar are at significantly higher risk of developing depression and anxiety than those who eat a healthier diet, such as a Mediterranean-style diet that’s higher in natural, nutrient-rich, and less processed foods, such as seafood, vegetables, olive oil, legumes, and nuts.

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*Researchers are affiliated with Charles E Schmidt College of Medicine at Florida Atlantic University, University of Sao Paulo, University of South Carolina Department of Medicine, Georgetown University Medical Center, and University of Kentucky College of Medicine.

Facebook image: Flotsam/Shutterstock

LinkedIn image: Trzykropy/Shutterstock

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/cravings/202208/8-foods-contribute-anxiety-and-depression

Topley’s Top 10 – October 05, 2022

1. Q3 Final Performance Grid

From Nasdaq Dorsey Wright www.dorseywright.com

2. Hedge Funds are Record Short

3. Midcap and Small Cap Forward P/E Back to 2008 Levels.

Ed Yardeni –S&P still high…Mid/Small back 2008

https://twitter.com/yardeni

4. Historical October Lows in Market

Callum Thomas Chart Storm

https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-2-october

5. 30 Worst Performing Stocks in Russell 1000

Bespoke Investment Group

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/research/think-big-blog/

6. Since 2000 The Average Move on the 10 Year Treasury During Major Moves Higher is 1.8%……We Moved 3.4% Since August 2020

LPL Research

https://lplresearch.com/2022/10/04/raising-our-10-year-treasury-yield-year-end-forecast/

7. Global M2 Money Supply has Decreased $4Trillion

Morgan Stanley Chief Equity Strategist Mike Wilson -M2 for the “big four” economies: the U.S., China, the eurozone and Japan, peaked in March 2021, and thereafter, has decreased by $4 trillion, according to Wilson’s data.

Tracking the rate of change in the money supply for these economies is important, Wilson said, since it tends to be correlated with lower equity prices, as the chart below shows.

MORGAN STANLEY

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-will-continue-falling-even-after-fed-pivots-warns-morgan-stanley-strategist-who-predicted-bear-market-11664821513?siteid=yhoof2

8. 97% of Stocks were Positive 3 of Past 5 Trading Days

This stock market comeback is unprecedented by one measure

Alex Harring@ALEX_HARRING
KEY POINTS

  • Susquehanna noted that 97% of S&P 500 stocks are up for the third time in the past five trading days.
  • It is the first time since at least 2000 that the broader market index has seen such strength at the stock level.

Traders work on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., May 20, 2022.
Andrew Kelly | Reuters

The S&P 500 has done something it hasn’t in at least two decades, according to Susquehanna.

Chris Murphy, Susquehanna’s co-head of derivatives strategy, noted that 97% of S&P 500 stocks are up for the third time in the past five trading days. It marks the first time since at least 2000 that the broader market index has seen such strength at the stock level.

Investors watch the 97% marker because the index typically pulls back after a day with that percentage of its components up, Murphy said.

He also noted that prior to last week, this week marked the first time since Aug. 25, 2015 that 97% of S&P 500 components were up in two of the previous five trading days. After that, the S&P 500 rebounded about 13% before hitting a new low six months later, he said.

The relief rally seen this week follows a difficult last month and quarter for the stock market, as the major indexes slid and jittery investors grew increasingly concerned about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes and the probability of an incoming recession.

Through the week’s first two trading sessions, the S&P 500 is up more than 5%. Tuesday was the best day for the S&P 500 since 2020.

—CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/04/this-stock-market-comeback-is-unprecedented-by-one-measure.html

9. Wolf Street-Office Space Major Cities

Commercial real estate advisory Savills today released the first batch of its Q3 quarterly office market reports on the major markets in the US, 12 markets in total. Houston tops the list in terms of the largest share of vacant office space on the market, with an availability rate of 30.7%. San Francisco is second with 28.9%, and shooting higher. A big issue is sublease space. This is space for which companies are still paying rent to the landlord, but they’re not occupying it, and instead they’re trying to find sublease tenants for it to help defray the expenses of that space. These companies will price their sublease space aggressively since they don’t have to make a profit on this office space, but just want to lower their costs of holding it until the lease expires. Sublease space puts downward pressure on effective rents – even as landlords are typing to hold the line.

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/10/04/office-reits-massacred-as-the-future-that-office-markets-were-built-for-got-cancelled-by-working-from-home/

10. 3 Exercises to Nail Your Point-INC

Use these techniques to concisely communicate the big goal and how to get there.
BY JOEL SCHWARTZBERG, AUTHOR, “THE LANGUAGE OF LEADERSHIP”@THEJOELTRUTH

Photo: Getty Images

One of the most important ideas running through my trainings, articles, podcasts, and books is this: To make a point, you must know your point. And knowing your point starts with knowing what a point is.

If you don’t have or know your true point, everything you say will be pointless — and neither your team nor you want that.

An effective point combines two elements:

  1. An articulation of the impact.
  2. A mechanism to produce that impact.

It isn’t the mechanism alone (“We will streamline our sales process!”) or the impact alone (“We must increase revenue!”). A solid point connects both, as in:

“Streamlining our sales process will enable us to double revenue by the fourth quarter.”

Getting from a non-point to a sharp point in your communications is not just a matter of choosing the right words but having the right mindset. As Albert Einstein once said, “If you can’t explain it simply, you don’t understand it well enough.”

Below are three easy exercises to help you build that understanding, construct meaningful points, and express them simply and sharply.

1. The “I Believe That” Test

Can your point fit into this phrase: “I believe that ________________” so that it forms a complete sentence?

Let’s take some random professional points and apply the test. If you took Language Arts in junior high, you know these are not complete sentences:

“I believe that increasing fourth-quarter revenue”

“I believe that the new online scheduling system”

“I believe that investing in cloud technology”

In forcing you to construct a complete sentence, this test will prompt you to produce lines like these:

“I believe that celebrity endorsements will increase our fourth quarter revenue.”

“I believe that the new online scheduling system will make our sales process more efficient.”

“I believe that investing in cloud technology will reduce our carbon footprint.”

Once you have a complete sentence, you are well on your way to making a sharp point. If you don’t have a complete sentence, reconstruct it so that it would earn you a check-plus in that Language Arts class.

2. The Formula

In my experience, effective points also follow a simple equation (far simpler than E=mc2):

“If we do X, Y will result.”

X is the mechanism, Y is the impact, and you can see how they manifest in the “I believe that” examples above.

“I believe that the new online scheduling system (X) will make our sales process more efficient (Y).”

Just make sure your X is a specific process, tool, resource, or commitment. Simply “doing better” and “working harder” will not suffice.

Keep your Y specific as well, and make sure you are expressing the most valuable or ultimate impact, not just a “badjective” or a short-term milestone:

Is the ultimate goal simply increasing website traffic or selling more product?

Is the ultimate goal merely spreading social awareness or increasing community activity?

Is the ultimate goal increasing financial contributions or saving lives with those funds?

Think of the people on the other side of the table or screen — perhaps a client, a customer, a partner, or your team. At the end of the day, what impact do they value most? The answer to that question should match your Y.

3. The Magic Words

To ensure my students and clients do more selling than sharing, I encourage them to adopt these point-forcing power phrases:

I propose

I recommend

I suggest

Similar to “I believe that,” these phrases force the creation of a true point that includes — maybe with mild tweaking — both a mechanism and an impact.

These phrases are also attention magnets. Saying “Here’s what I propose…” is a beacon for audience interest, and you certainly can’t say “I propose,” “I recommend,” or “I suggest” without proposing, recommending, or suggesting something. Magic!

These phrases are also valuable for professional development. Don’t immediately make a recommendation when someone you supervise comes to you with a status report or situation. Instead, ask them for one — “What do you recommend?” If you keep asking this question, sooner or later, that person will say, “Here’s the situation… and here’s what I recommend we do.”

I believe that people who use these power phrases are seen as leaders and eventually become them.

What happens when leaders elevate their broad ideas and topics into sharp points? They don’t just inform. They engage, they inspire, and they activate impact. That’s the power of having a point and the point of having power.

3 Exercises to Nail Your Point | Inc.com

Topley’s Top 10 – October 04, 2022

1. Credit Suisse CDS Hits 2008 Levels.

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/


2. Is the Dollar Finally Hitting a Pause in Rally?

www.stockcharts.com


3. MOVE Bond Volatility Index Hit Previous Highs

Bond VIX volatility index hit $155….Historically the top in rising rates.

Barrons By Lisa Beilfuss–The Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate, or MOVE, index, shows how violent the action has been in the U.S. Treasury market. Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, notes that the index, which captures bond-market volatility much like the Cboe Volatility IndexVIX –0.69% , or VIX, does with the stock market, hit about 159 during the past week. That is the highest level since 2009, with a lone exception in March 2020, early in the pandemic. Bianco says that every time the MOVE index has gotten above 155, the Fed has panicked and eased policy.

For investors conditioned to expect the Fed to backstop markets, this would suggest that at least a pivot away from aggressive tightening is in sight—and a return to rate cuts and QE might not be far behind that.Don’t bet on it just yet. Not only is the current turbulence the consequence of the Fed waiting too long to address inflation; it is also the result of some policy makers and investors missing the point that the economy has fundamentally changed since the pandemic, Bianco says.  https://www.barrons.com/articles/federal-reserve-put-stock-market-economy-51664579357?mod=Searchresults

https://markets.ft.com/data/indices/tearsheet/summary?s=MOVE:PSE


4. 2000 and 2008 Last Time S&P was Down 3 Quarters in a Row

Michael Batnick For just the third time in a long time, the stock market has declined for three consecutive quarters.

Making Lemonade in the Stock Market – The Irrelevant Investor


5. Inflation Slowdown?…COMT Commodity ETF…Bearish Chart Action

COMT 50day thru 200day to downside….trading below 200 day most of September


6. Inflation Slowdown? Baltic Dry Shipping Index -70% from Highs


7. U.K. Stock Market ETF…Just Above Covid Lows…Trading at 8.5x earnings.


8. VNQ-Vanguard Real Estate Trades Back to Covid Levels.

A lot of charts below 200 week moving average and back to covid levels

www.stockcharts.com


9. Electric vehicle startups face an uphill climb

Joann Muller, author of Axios What’s Next

UPS-backed electric vehicle startup Arrival built its first delivery van last week — a significant milestone, considering the challenges it and other upstart EV makers like it are facing.

Why it matters: Arrival and other fledgling commercial EV companies are struggling to launch production as funding dwindles and bigger rivals like GM and Ford start to crank out electric trucks and vans of their own.

  • Some newbies have already collapsed, like Electric Last Mile Solutions, which went bankrupt in June.
  • For the rest, the goal is to at least show progress to investors — which is why Arrival made such a big deal about producing a single van on what happened to be the last day of the third quarter.

Driving the news: Arrival said Friday it had missed its third-quarter target to start serial production, but celebrated the fact that it produced its first “production verification vehicle” — in other words, an early prototype.

  • “Although we have not yet achieved serial production, we are focused on making it happen,” founder and CEO Denis Sverdlov said in a statement.
  • Scaling is more difficult than he imagined, Sverdlov told Reuters. “We are going through our own production hell,” he said, echoing Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s comments during the troubled launch of the Model 3.

The big picture: Other struggling EV manufacturers face similar challenges as financing options tighten.

  • Lordstown Motors last week said it began production of the Endurance, an electric pickup truck for businesses. So far, it has built a grand total of two and aims to build 50 by year-end. It too is looking to raise more cash.
  • Faraday Future said it will start production of its long-delayed FF 91 sports car by the end of 2022 with $100 million in new financing after resolving an investor dispute.
  • Canoo, which is also struggling to start production, has decided to outsource manufacturing to a third party.
  • Rivian is leaning on a lucrative Amazon contract while it boosts consumer production — but it too recently laid off 6% of its workforce.

https://www.axios.com/2022/10/03/electric-vehicle-startups-arrival


10. How to Harvest Your Hidden Intelligence

Three ways to enhance experiential intelligence. Lindsey Godwin Ph.D.

KEY POINTS

  • Our popular notions of IQ and EQ are no longer sufficient to predict success in today’s perpetually disrupted world.
  • Experiential intelligence offers a complement to IQ and EQ by inviting us to leverage the wisdom we accumulate through our experiences.
  • There are specific strategies we can employ to enhance our experiential intelligence and gain new wisdom to set us up for success in the future.

As autumn returns with its promise of pumpkin spice lattes, corn mazes, and fall festivals, my mind turns to the notion of harvesting. Defined as “collecting a resource in order to use it in the future effectively,” there are many things we harvest this season to sustain us through the year. Reflecting on our psychological resources, there is one garden in our lives we often neglect to fully harvest during the year: our experiences. Our myriad of past experiences, however, provides each of us with a cornucopia of wisdom to be leveraged into future successes if we take the time to harvest it.

Exploring the rich harvesting that is available to us through our experiences is exactly what Dr. Soren Kaplan does in his forthcoming book, Experiential Intelligence: Harness the Power of Experience for Personal and Business Breakthroughs. Kaplan (2023) defines experiential intelligence (XQ) as “the combination of mindsets, abilities, and know-how gained from your experiences.” More specifically, the three elements are:

  • Mindsets: Attitudes and beliefs about yourself, other people, and the world.
  • Abilities: Competencies that help you integrate your knowledge, skills, and experiences so you can respond to situations in the most effective way possible.
  • Know-How: Knowledge and skills.

For more than a century since German psychologist William Stern coined the term intelligence quotient (IQ), we have explored the notion of general intelligence as a gauge of future success. Nearly 50 years ago, we added emotional intelligence (EQ) as a complementary piece to the success puzzle of life. What we have yet to fully harvest and recognize as an important element for cultivating success is the latent intelligence that comes from our lived experiences. While the notion of multiple forms of intelligence endures within our zeitgeist, we have primarily focused on IQ and EQ as the core pillars for understanding our personal and professional achievements. Yet, perhaps we have been missing an important piece of the puzzle in our neglect to explore the wisdom gained through our array of past experiences. Experiential intelligence offers a complement to IQ and EQ by providing a framework for harvesting the accumulated wisdom and talents we have grown over time through our personal and professional experiences.

In many ways, XQ offers us a new lens through which to unpack our history in a way that sets us up for success in the future. Just as many have written about ways to increase our EQ, and even possibly expand our IQ (for example, see Relational Frame Theory that suggests IQ is a reflection of learned relational skills that can be enhanced over time), so too can we enhance our XQ. Specifically, we can:

1.   Get Curious About Successes. Our XQ can be deepened through unpacking our past wins. Too often we treat our successes as accidents, or not worthy of deeper inquiry, when in fact just the opposite is true. Much had to go right in order for our successes to have occurred, and reflecting upon how we were able to exercise our unique mindsets, abilities, and know-how to create those successes is key to developing our XQ. The next time something goes right at work or home, ask yourself, “What were the mindsets, abilities, and know-how that led me to be successful and how can I leverage them further in the future?” Success can beget success if we harvest our learnings from our experiences.

2.   Reframe Failures. If we begin to see all experiences as an opportunity for expanding our XQ, we begin to recognize that even when things didn’t turn out as we hoped, there is rich learning to be gained from reflecting on our experience. Instead of kicking ourselves for not succeeding, we can instead ask ourselves, “What are the mindsets, abilities, and know-how I will need in the future to be successful?” This simple shift can increase our XQ and help turn breakdowns into breakthroughs.

3.   Cultivate New Experiences. We can also bolster our XQ through the intentional pursuit of new and diverse experiences. Seeking out and creating diverse experiences offers an opportunity to add new chapters to our life’s book. The more diverse experiential text we have to draw upon, the more opportunities we have to deepen our XQ. Ask yourself, “What new experiences might help me expand my mindsets, abilities, and know-how?”

Farrah Gray once said, “Inside every seed is the potential for an incredible harvest.” Similarly, inside every experience is the potential for an incredible harvest of learning to expand our mindsets, abilities, and know-how. XQ invites us to become perpetual harvesters of our past to create better futures.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/possibilitizing/202210/how-harvest-your-hidden-intelligence

Topley’s Top 10 – October 03, 2022

1. Global Bonds and Stocks Record Drawdown

This year’s pullback outpaces steep declines seen during the 2008-2009 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic, based on the drop in market value of the Bloomberg GlobalAgg Index and the MSCI All-Country World Stocks Index combined.

Perhaps this is not surprising given the tidal wave of cash that flooded into world markets during the easy years. But the pace of this year’s value destruction is still alarming: the $36 trillion shaved off markets in nine months had been amassed over roughly double that time, between mid-2020 and late-2021. 

ByJan-Patrick Barnert https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-01/raging-markets-selloff-in-five-charts-36-trillion-and-counting?sref=GGda9y2L


2. Nowhere to Hide…Defensive Utilities Drop a Fast -15%

www.stockcharts.com


3. Nowhere to Hide…Defensive Consumer Staples Drop a Fast -16%

www.stockcharts.com


4. Money Supply is Collapsing.

Zero Hedge Collapse In Money Supply Is Still A Major Risk For The Market BY TYLER DURDEN  Via SchiffGold.com, Money Supply growth was barely positive in August at $2B and sits well below the $233B seen last year. As the chart below shows, Money Supply growth has collapsed since February. Last year started with five straight months above $200B, whereas 2022 has only seen one month above $100B and that was January.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/collapse-money-supply-still-major-risk-market

Investopedia–What Happens When the Federal Reserve Limits the Money Supply?  A country’s money supply has a significant effect on a country’s macroeconomic profile, particularly in relation to interest rates, inflation, and the business cycle. In America, the Federal Reserve determines the level of monetary supply.2 When the Fed limits the money supply via contractionary or hawkish monetary policy, interest rates rise and the cost of borrowing increases. This can dampen inflationary pressures, but also risk slowing down economic growth.


5. Retail Investors Buying More Puts than Calls…Contra Indicator

Retail investors’ put options have now exceeded calls, as they did in early 2020.

Source: Vanda Research

 https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-september-30th-2022/


6. Put/Call Ratio Hitting Lows of 2018 and 2020

-Past signal of short-term rally.  JC at All-Star Charts You can see it in the Put/Call Ratio hitting levels last seen at the 2018 and 2020 market lows:

https://allstarcharts.com/the-bulls-have-left-the-building/    From Abnormal Returns Blog www.abnormalreturns.com


7. A Few Slides on the American Demographic Dilemma….Growth of U.S. Working Age Population Shrinking then Negative in 2021

John Burns Real Estate

https://www.linkedin.com/in/johnburns7/


8. Prime-Age Working Males Ugly Chart

Demographic-Drought.pdf


9. Women Surpassed Men in College….Now Women Overtake Men in White Collar Workforce

Women now outnumber men in the U.S. college-educated labor force BY RICHARD FRY  Women have overtaken men and now account for more than half (50.7%) of the college-educated labor force in the United States, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of government data. The change occurred in the fourth quarter of 2019 and remains the case today, even though the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a sharp recession and an overall decline in the size of the nation’s labor force.

Women now represent a majority of the college-educated labor force in the U.S. | Pew Research Center


10. The Most Common Symptoms of Low Dopamine

By

Elizabeth Plumptre 

Dopamine is a neurotransmitter, or chemical, that plays the important role of sending signals from the brain to the body. It is produced naturally in different key sections of the brain and is important for functions such as motor skills, cognitive abilities, and reproduction.

This neurotransmitter spikes in anticipation of something important which is about to happen, plays key roles in the body’s reward and motivation system, and also affects memory.

Dopamine performs these important functions despite making up only a small percentage—less than 1% —of the brain’s neurons.1 In the right amount, this neurotransmitter is crucial for brain function, but when this amount is lowered beyond a prescribed point, it can just as equally have an unintended consequence on the body. Dopamine deficiency has been linked to neurodegenerative conditions in the body.

To understand the effects of low dopamine, we’ll first examine the signs and causes of this condition. Then, we’ll learn about the conditions most commonly linked to dopamine deficiency for a keener understanding of its effects. Finally, we’ll share the ways you can maintain your body’s production of this important neurotransmitter.

 What Is Dopamine?

Symptoms of Low Dopamine 

With links to conditions like schizophrenia and Parkinson’s disease, dopamine deficiency can exhibit similar traits with these conditions. These traits include:

  • Chronic back pain2
  • Persistent constipation3
  • Weight fluctuations4
  • Dysphagia or difficulty swallowing5
  • Sleep disorders6
  • Fatigue7
  • Attention difficulties8
  • Reduced sex drive9
  • Hallucinations and delusions10
  • Aspiration pneumonia11
  • Low moods12

Causes of Low Dopamine 

A number of factors may be responsible for reduced dopamine in the body. These include sleep deprivation, obesity, drug abuse, saturated fat, and stress. Here’s a closer look at each.

Sleep Deprivation 

Besides your morning coffee, dopamine is one of the reasons you feel refreshed and alert most mornings. This wakefulness is promoted by dopamine receptors, in particular the D2 receptor. These receptors help to mediate the functions of dopamine in the body.

However, sleep deprivation can reduce the number of D2 receptors in important parts of the brain. Where this happens, the transmission and production of dopamine is impacted.

In fact, with a condition like Parkinson’s disease which sustains low dopamine levels, most people feel excessive daytime sleepiness.13

Obesity 

Obesity has been linked to a number of health conditions, but one less known effect is the role it plays in downregulating or reducing the amount of dopamine in the brain.

Like the results of sleep deprivation, obesity can lead to a reduction in D2 receptors in the brain.14 This becomes especially obvious when comparisons are made with the number of receptors in people who are not obese.15

Drug Abuse

During early usage, certain drugs may contribute to an increase in dopamine. Cocaine is one drug that has been known to produce euphoria and increased dopamine levels following usage.

However, long-term use of these drugs is certain to offer diminishing returns, especially where dopamine production is concerned.

Because of the sustained increase in dopamine production following drug use, the brain intervenes to reduce the number of dopamine receptors available.16

Saturated Fat 

When you have fried chicken, buttered bread, chocolate, and other foods high in saturated fats, your brain understandably lights up with dopamine at all the pleasure you’re receiving from these foods.

However, while these foods only produce short-term enjoyment. Over time, persistently observing a high-fat diet disrupts central nervous system functioning, where dopamine is produced. When it is disrupted, this can lead to a dopamine deficit.17

Stress

There are very few things stress is good for, and maintaining optimal dopamine levels isn’t one of them. When you are constantly exposed to stressors like financial difficulty, relationship troubles, workplace stress, and more, this can affect your body’s production of dopamine. Over time, this may also lead to a deficiency of the neurotransmitter in the body.

Conditions Linked With Dopamine Deficiency 

Major Depressive Disorder

Major depressive disorder is one of the most severe mental and behavioral disorders. It is characterized by prolonged depressive moods, or a lack of interest in activities that would ordinarily be appealing. This loss of interest is commonly referred to as anhedonia.

However, beyond a loss of interest, anhedonia is also related to a disruption in the mind’s reward process. The usual anticipation, motivation, and decision-making stages involved in the reward system are greatly affected. This change has been linked to dysfunctions in the dopamine system.

Decreased levels of dopamine have been known to form the basis of the symptoms associated with major depressive disorders.18

 What Is the Chemistry Behind Depression?

Schizophrenia

This disorder is linked with an abnormal interpretation of reality. Schizophrenia is a severe mental health condition that can affect a person’s ability to think, act, or express themselves.

Typically diagnosable by symptoms like hallucinations, delusions, and abnormal physical gaits, these signs may also be attributed to an imbalance of dopamine in the body.

Lower levels of dopamine have been linked to other signs such as anhedonia, an inability to complete tasks, and demotivation to engage in social interactions.19

Parkinson’s Disease

Parkinson’s is a disorder of the nervous system. It is identifiable by tremors which may begin as barely noticeable, before progressing into obvious quivers, muscle stiffness, or delayed movement. This disorder may also cause problems with balance during motion.

Parkinson’s disease is the result of a number of factors, one of which is a reduction in the production of dopamine in the brain. When there is a dopamine deficit, this can cause the distinct movement difficulties associated with this condition.20

How to Treat Low Dopamine Levels

Low dopamine levels can produce negative reactions throughout the body. To prevent and remedy this deficiency, the following methods can prove useful.

Exercise

Working up a sweat by running, swimming, dancing, or other forms of movement, can help with increasing dopamine levels in the body. Studies carried out on animals have shown that certain portions of the brain are flushed with dopamine during physical activity. It is why exercising may sometimes produce a high.21

Natural Sources 

Your body’s supply of dopamine may be supported by external sources. Natural sources such as bananas, plantain, and avocado have been found to contain high levels of dopamine. Apples, eggplant, spinach, and tomatoes have also been recognized as dopamine sources. Proteins are also notable components in the dopamine production process.22

Probiotics 

Probiotics may get more notice for promoting gut health, but this bacteria is not only an important part of the body’s microbiome, it may also be useful for the production of dopamine and other neurotransmitters.23

 Could Probiotics Be a Good Mood Food?

Music 

It’s not 100% certain how music affects the brain, but there’s a reason why certain songs give you chills, make you mellow, and very notably, have the power to invigorate you while listening.

The last potential may be due to the ability of music to stimulate dopamine production in the brain. This leaves you with feelings of pleasure and excitement when listening to music, and can help to increase dwindling dopamine levels.24

A Word From Verywell

In the right amount, dopamine can give you feelings of pleasure, excitement and motivation when carrying out activities. Things start to go south, however, when the  body runs low on this neurotransmitter. This can happen because of a genetic predisposition, obesity, stress, and other causes.

When this happens, it isn’t uncommon for you to experience persistent tiredness, constipation, poor moods, sleep disorders, and other negative reactions.

Thankfully, the body’s dopamine levels can be increased using the right diet that consists of fruits like banana, probiotics, as well as protein. You can also get your dopamine fix by listening to music and routinely engaging in exercise.

By Elizabeth Plumptre 

 https://www.verywellmind.com/common-symptoms-of-low-dopamine-5120239

Topley’s Top 10 – September 30, 2022

1. Is Netflix a Value Stock?

From my friends at Kailash Research https://kailashconcepts.com/

1.Despite the -65% decline, Netflix is still larger than 93% of all other large-cap stocks
2.So, post a -60% wipeout, Netflix is still more expensive than 82% of all US large-cap stocks.
NFLX -75% Correction top to bottom

2. Correlation Nasdaq and Bitcoin .71

From Nasdaq Dorsey Wright

www.dorseywright.com

3. U.S. Credit Spreads Have Not Spiked Yet

@DTAPCAP Dan Tapiero

https://twitter.com/DTAPCAP

4. High Grade Bonds Suffered 3rd Biggest Weekly Outflow Ever

@lisaabramowicz1

https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1

5. Preferred Stock ETF..Long-Term Chart

PFF ETF hit $20 during Covid and single digits during 2008 crisis

www.stockcharts.com

6. History of S&P 500 During Fed Rate Hike Cycles

Dan Petersen, CMT, CAIAIndexIQ ETF Product Manager

https://www.linkedin.com/in/danpeterseniiq/

7. Small Cap Value Holding Above 200 Week Moving Average.

VBR Vanguard Small Cap Value another chart right at 200 week moving average

www.stockcharts.com

8. How Much Home Can You Buy for $2500 Per Month?

One Year Ago $758,000 vs. Now $476,000 @M_McDonough

Michael McDonough https://twitter.com/M_McDonough

9. For China’s Auto Market, Electric Isn’t the Future. It’s the Present.

More electric cars will be sold in the country this year than in the rest of the world combined, as its domestic market accelerates ahead of the global competition.

BYD, China’s largest electric vehicle maker, displayed cars at an auto show in Wuhan, China, in July.Credit…Getty Images

By Daisuke Wakabayashi and Claire Fu

Zhang Youping, a Chinese retiree, purchased an all-electric, small sport utility vehicle from BYD — China’s largest electric vehicle maker — at an auto show for around $20,000 last month. Her family has bought three gas-powered cars in the last decade, but she recently grew concerned about gas prices and decided to go electric “to save money.” A few months earlier, her son had also bought an E.V. It was a $10,000 hatchback from Leapmotor, another Chinese manufacturer.

This year, a quarter of all new cars purchased in China will be an all-electric vehicle or a plug-in hybrid. By some estimates, more than 300 Chinese companies are making E.V.s, ranging from discount offerings below $5,000 to high-end models that rival Tesla and German automakers. There are roughly four million charging units in the country, double the number from a year ago, with more coming.

While other E.V. markets are still heavily dependent on subsidies and financial incentives, China has entered a new phase: Consumers are weighing the features and prices of electric vehicles against gas-powered cars without much consideration of state support. The United States is far behind. This year, the country passed a key threshold of E.V.s accounting for 5 percent of new car sales. China passed that level in 2018.

It took China more than a decade of subsidies, long-term investments and infrastructure spending to lay the foundation for its electric vehicle market to start standing on its own. Tu Le, a managing director of the Beijing-based consultancy Sino Auto Insights, said competition and dynamism were now driving the Chinese market, not government subsidies.“We have reached a point in China where we’re competing on price. We’re competing on features. So it’s not a subsidy thing,” Mr. Le said. “The market is taking over.”

For China’s Auto Market, Electric Isn’t the Future. It’s the Present. – The New York Times (nytimes.com)

10. 5 Keys to Simplify Decision-Making

Few wish they’d spent more of their lives analyzing what to order for dinner. Jill P. Weber Ph.D.

KEY POINTS

  • The day-to-day that most experience can easily become a mental overload.
  • The myriad of choices and searches available leave many feeling stuck, leaving some to give up on making a call completely.
  • Some second guess their decisions or berate themselves for their choices long after decisions have been made.
  • Simplifying the decision-making process brings on clarity and peace of mind.

Do you find yourself bogged down by decisions, even simple, everyday ones? Do you find yourself consulting with others, scouring the internet, and working to turn over every possibility before making a decision? And do you find, at times, you are paralyzed by the options to such an extent that you punt the decision and end up not making one at all?

The goings-on of day-to-day life that most experience can easily become a mental overload. Even the mundane can bog us down. For me, living in the D.C. area and considering my options for tonight’s take-out is kind of an over-stimulating experience. On the surface, having options feels like freedom and progress. On a deeper level, it can feel so entirely overwhelming that making a move in any direction is impossible. And then for some others, they make their decisions but internally berate themselves by wondering if they made the right decision, or by continuing to research other paths they might have taken.

Decisions—from the serious to the routine—can make many feel they have a perpetual death grip on the steering wheel of life. Interestingly, we seem to do better with the big ones, like finding a surgeon, for example. It’s the small, everyday decisions that can really bog people down.

Consider the time you spend in your head thinking about what to do or rethinking what you should have done differently. If you take a moment to sit with how you feel when this is happening, it may become blazingly obvious to you that time spent in decision-making mode is not necessarily supporting your psyche and peace of mind. How many people on their death beds think, “Wow, I wish I would have spent more of my time researching my decisions.” There’s a way out of this rabbit hole, one that can bring you peace and presence.

Here are five steps to making decisions less painful, adapted from my recently released book, Overcoming Stressed Induced Brain Fog:

  1. There’s No Absolute “Right” Decision: We’re taught that careful thought and intellectualizing all of life’s ills will protect us from pain and suffering. Unfortunately, this is a myth. All of the thinking, second-guessing, and planning in the world will not make you immune from life’s vagaries. When you’re obsessing about your next decision, gently remind yourself that whichever way you go will likely not impact your life in an enduring sense. Spending time finding peace, learning what brings you meaning, and connecting with others, however, will impact your long-term well-being.
  2. Cut Yourself Off: The vastness of the internet is anxiety-producing for many. It can feel that if you search enough, you’ll come to the end of the rainbow and all will be right in the world. Of course, your experience has likely already taught you that the internet has no end. The best way to stop this endless search for the ‘right’ decision is to literally set a timer on your watch when you’re doing “research.” Also, add talking to others into your decision process. Directly communicating with real-life people, in person, helps us find what’s right for us versus finding perfect.
  3. Good Enough: As much as you want things to be amazing and perfect, consider the stress this brings. Even when you’re able to achieve some version of perfection then you have to spend time and energy maintaining it. There is much to be said for things simply being…good enough. Sure, maybe everything is not glamorous and exactly right, but you will have a life where you haven’t squandered all of your time and resources trying to get it exactly right. Good enough leaves space for internal peace, connection, and meaning.
  4. Make A Decision: More than making a wrong or bad decision, not making a decision at all brings on brain fog. You aren’t able to move forward in any direction and your brain is full of random contingency analyses that never get resolved. Just do it. Call an end to the back-and-forth and make a decision. You will feel the peace it brings.
  5. Don’t Look Back: Once you’ve decided, embrace your decision. Shut down all of those mental and literal tabs in your mind and on your browser. You can cope if you find, along the way, the decision you made doesn’t bring you peace, or you realize it really is causing more harm than good. Regroup and change course without self-flagellating.

Topley’s Top 10 – September 29, 2022

1. S&P Approaching Giving Back 2 Years of Gains.

www.yahoofinance.com


2. Zero Coupon Bond Down Close to -50%


3. Another Bond Chart….Muni ETF

50 week going thru 200 week to downside….Munis break to new lows.

www.stockcharts.com


4. Oil Prices Officially Below Ukraine Invasion Numbers.

LPL Research

https://i0.wp.com/lplresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/chart-12.png?ssl=1


5. China Currency Drawdown Thru Covid Lows

https://dailyshotbrief.com/


6. Chinese Internet Stocks Not Breaking New Lows Yet.

KWEB forming base since March….-75% from Highs


7. Stock/Bond Drawdown $57.8 Trillion

@DTAPCAP DTAP Capital

https://twitter.com/DTAPCAP


8. Consumer Related Commodity Pullback

Carl Quintanilla

@carlquintanilla

https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla


9. Pace of Rent Increases Continues to Slow…Rents Huge for Inflation Numbers

Higher Rents will continue to impact measures of inflation in 2022CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride

Another monthly update on rents. First, from ApartmentList.com: Apartment List National Rent Report

Welcome to the October 2022 Apartment List National Rent Report. Our national index fell by 0.2 percent over the course of September, marking the first time this year that the national median rent has declined month-over-month. The timing of this slight dip in rents is consistent with a seasonal trend that was typical in pre-pandemic years. Assuming that trend continues, it is likely that rents will continue falling in the coming months as we enter the winter slow season for the rental market. … Year-over-year growth is continuing to decelerate, and now stands at 7.5 percent, down from a peak of nearly 18 percent at the beginning of the year.

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/pace-of-rent-increases-continues-601  Found at Abnormal Returns Blog www.abnormalreturns.com


10. Korn Ferry’s CEO says the best résumé he’s ever seen nailed these 6 key elements

Gary Burnison, the CEO of Korn Ferry. Anne Cusack/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

  • Gary Burnison is the CEO of the management-consultancy firm Korn Ferry.
  • He’s spent the past 20 years recruiting candidates for the LA-based company.
  • He told CNBC the six keys to one of the best résumés he’s seen in his time at the firm.

Get a daily selection of our top stories based on your reading preferences.

A Roblox creator earns up to $90,000 a month selling virtual items like $0.94 stud earrings and $1.24 fur hood…

This is an edited, translated version of an article that originally appeared on September 16, 2022.

Gary Burnison is the CEO of the management-consultancy firm Korn Ferry. He’s been interviewing and hiring candidates for the company for 20 years.

Writing for CNBC Make It, he said that despite being tough to impress when it comes to résumés, one, in particular, has stuck in his mind to this day.

Burnison shared the six key things that made this résumé stand out as one of the best he’d ever read.

1. A strong narrative

The résumé offered a clearly defined, chronological path through the candidate’s career history, Burnison told CNBC.

Burnison said a good résumé should start with the most recent professional experience and work backward from there. The résumé should show progression in terms of the candidate’s responsibilities and not have any career gaps, he added.

2. Well-presented 

Burnison said that the résumé was two pages long and well-organized.

“Line spacing was just right, company names in bold, titles italicized, and job details arranged in bullet points,” he said.

He added that he likes candidates to use a simple, clear font.

3. No clichés

Burnison also said that the best résumés avoid clichés and use action verbs instead.

He said including vague terms like “excellent communicator,” “team player,” “creative,” or “hard-working” could quickly put off recruiters.

As an example, Burnison said: “Instead of ‘excellent communicator,’ say ‘presented at face-to-face client meetings and spoke at college recruiting events.”‘

4. It highlighted achievements

Another integral reason this résumé stood out was that it provided examples of the candidate’s achievements, as well as the duties they had to carry out in their previous roles, Burnison said.

Burnison said that hiring managers want to see evidence that candidates have delivered “quantifiable” results and why they’re better than the average applicant.

He said one way to do that is by highlighting your responsibilities through your best achievements.

Burnison shared an example of what this could look like for a candidate: “Instead of ‘led marketing and sales team,’ say ‘supervised marketing and sales team and achieved 15% annual growth vs. 0.5% budget.”‘

5. It was open and honest

The candidate provided a link to a portfolio of their work and their LinkedIn page. Burnision said this left a positive impression as he could easily double-check any claims made in the résumé, which added to the candidate’s credibility.

Burnison said that honesty is crucial to success, as a reference check will end your chances if you’ve lied about anything.

6. It came with a referral

The candidate included a referral from a colleague from Burnison’s firm. The CEO shared that this is “the most effective way to get an employer’s attention.”

While this isn’t possible for everyone, even those who don’t have a contact at the company should still try and find a way of making an informal introduction to a current employee.

This can just be something simple like meeting an employee for coffee, he continued, adding that once you’ve formed a relationship with someone within the firm, you can start inquiring about job opportunities.

Read the original article on Business Insider Deutschland. Copyright 2022.

https://www.businessinsider.com/6-keys-best-resume-management-consultancy-recruiter-korn-ferry-2022-9

Topley’s Top 10 – September 28, 2022

1. 2022 Historical Event…Bonds Down More Than Stocks.

Michael Gayed Below are the top 20 largest peak to trough drawdowns for the S&P 500 going back to 1961. Never, IN HISTORY, in an EXTREME drawdown for stocks, have Treasuries, THE risk-off asset, GONE DOWN MORE THAN STOCKS.

(23) Michael A. Gayed, CFA on Twitter: “Below are the top 20 largest peak to trough drawdowns for the S&P 500 going back to 1961. Never, IN HISTORY, in an EXTREME drawdown for stocks, have Treasuries, THE risk-off asset, GONE DOWN MORE THAN STOCKS. WAKE. THE. FUCK. UP. $TLT $SPY https://t.co/MKlas14qv4” / Twitter2.


2. 30 Year Treasury -30% from Highs

30 year treasury ETF …oversold short-term

First time American investors experiencing a “short-term safe bond fund” chart that looks like BSV

www.stockcharts.com


3. Hockey Stick Spike in Put Option Hedging

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading–You can practically smell the fear. Single stock put premium has been surging to record levels! (FT via the Twits)


4. U.S. is Facing Shortest Lead Time Ever Between Inverted Yield Curve and Recession

@Charlie Bilello Back then, the expansion peaked in March 2001. Today, many believe we are already in a recession.

If that’s the case, it would be the shortest lead time we’ve seen from the inverted yield curve signal.


5. Amazon Market Cap in S&P Almost Cut in Half

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathanbaird88/


6. FANG Stock ETF Closes Below 200 Week Moving Average.


7. S&P Retail Index Closes Below 200 Week Moving Average


8. China vs. India…Straight Down

This chart shows China ETF vs. India ETF….China straight pattern down vs. India starting in 2021

www.stockcharts.com


9. New fully self-driving Volkswagen allows you to work, eat and SLEEP

Cody Carlson VOLKSWAGEN has shown us the future of transport with its fully self-driving GEN.TRAVEL vehicle.

The all-electric GEN.TRAVEL car operates at the highest self-driving level and acts as an alternative to short-haul flights.

Rearview image showcasing Volkswagen’s GEN.TRAVEL vehicleCredit: Volkswagen AG

The Society of Automotive Engineers [SAE] formed a ranking system for self-driving car automation in 2014.

These autonomous (or self-driving) rankings are leveled from 0 to 5, with level 5 being the highest.

Volkswagen’s GEN.TRAVEL vehicle has level 5 autonomy, meaning it can travel through bad weather and isn’t limited to specific geographical locations, according to the manufacturer.

GEN.TRAVEL’s interior is customizable for each journey, offering configurations for working, eating, and sleeping.

The fully self-driving vehicle’s work setup includes a conference layout with four seats and a large center table where passengers can work and eat.

Illuminating GEN.TRAVEL’S work environment is dynamic lighting that helps passengers avoid motion sickness.

GEN.TRAVEL riders looking to catch some rest can convert the four chairs into two flat-lying beds.

The dynamic lighting within this Volkswagen also induces passenger melatonin release to promote better rest.

https://www.the-sun.com/motors/6303145/fully-self-driving-volkswagen-sleep/


10. The Science of Weekend Recovery

Finding your own best way to recover from the work week—and go back stronger. Jeffrey Davis M.A.

KEY POINTS

  • Many Americans are spending weekends and holidays working, leading to negative work-related stress.
  • Unwinding on the weekend is important, but how we choose to unwind is equally important.
  • The right form of recovery for you depends on the nature of your work.

Does it feel like it’s more difficult to disengage from work these days? If so, you’re not alone. According to the latest American Time Use Survey, one in five American workers spends an average of 5.94 hours working on weekends and holidays.

Working on the weekends is the message society tells us about how to get ahead. A Google search of what entrepreneurs do on weekends returns cheerful articles filled with advice to unwind and relax—yet Quora and Reddit forums asking the same question reveal what entrepreneurs actually do: work on their businesses.

Is it any wonder that the American Psychological Association’s 2021 Work and Well-being Survey found three in five workers are experiencing negative work-related stress?

It’s time to reclaim our weekends.

Recent Research on Weekend Recovery

Earlier this year I wrote about setting goals for a life worth living outside of work and how, if we want to avoid burnout and improve our resilience, we need to rethink how we refresh ourselves while off the clock.

Since writing that piece, I’ve become curious about a pair of studies that go beyond the fact that relaxation is necessary and ask the question of which type of activity can help us feel the most rejuvenated.

In a 2017 study from San Francisco University, Kevin J. Eschleman and his colleagues found that workers in less-creative jobs (such as cashiers, security guards, and technicians) were more likely to benefit from creative activities outside of work. Workers in creative jobs such as designers and architects, on the other hand, were more refreshed by noncreative pursuits.

A more recent study from the Université Grenoble Alpes in France extended the question to look at not only the activities participants did but also the amount of effort those activities took and the way they made the participant feel (which they call “experiences”; e.g., relaxation, mastery, control).

They found that participants who engaged in activities related to their work experienced lower recovery over the weekend, while those who engaged in social, physical, and creative experiences recovered better. Digging even deeper, they discovered that two specific experiences—psychological detachment from work and relaxation—were more likely to assist with recovery.

I want to highlight this for the one in five of us who are working 5.94 hours on weekends and holidays: the more distinct your nonwork activities are from your work activities, the more recovered you will feel at the end of your weekend.

Complementary Work and Recovery

Given this, how should you be spending your weekends? What you find most restorative will depend on the nature of your work.

article continues after advertisement

Because so much of my work throughout the week is cerebral and done at a computer, I find that activities that are outdoors and physically engaging are incredibly restorative—even if they’re technically “labor.” A few weekends ago I spent the weekend stacking two cords of wood at our home, then helped a friend spread cedar chips. I ended up sore, but happy and refreshed.

I’ve seen similar stories from clients who have chosen to engage in recreative activities that complement their work.

  • One client, a tenured law professor, turned to painting to relieve stress, refresh her spirits, and spark her creativity. For several winter months, she awoke early and painted a small watercolor with soil paints. The pursuit opened up new creative avenues for her; she wrote a book to inspire other lawyers.
  • Another client, a writer, chooses a sewing or woodworking project when she needs a break from wordsmithing. She says it engages her creativity in a different way, engaging the problem-solving and engineering part of her brain and allowing her to come back to her creative writing refreshed.

Whatever the activity, it seems participation is a key factor in how it affects us. A 2014 study followed two cohorts in 10-week classes. One group was given art lessons and actively produced paintings, while the other only viewed and discussed art. The group that produced art saw increased connectivity in the brain’s default mode network, which can improve our ability to be creative and imaginative.

Your Own Best Weekend Recovery

Which activities will help you recover best over the weekend? Start by asking yourself the following questions.

1. What is the mental nature of your work?

Those in noncreative jobs should look for ways to explore their creativity on the weekends, such as taking up a new hobby.

article continues after advertisement

If you’re in a creative field, try giving your mind a few days to recover while you engage in physical work, or a complementary hobby that lights up other parts of your brain besides what you use in your work.

2. What is the physical nature of your work?

For those of us who spend our days physically sitting at a computer or desk, activities that get our bodies moving can be good recovery. Those who are more active throughout the week might find stillness to be the best thing for them.

Think about your environment. Do you spend most of your work week in an office or in the city? Try an activity that gets you into a natural environment. Do you spend your days in a home office? Try an activity that gets you out into a more social space.

3. What is the social nature of your work?

Changing up who you interact with throughout the week can also make a difference. If most of your work is solo, consider taking a weekend class or going on an outing with friends. If you spend your week in meetings, maybe a solo hike or a morning spent reading are just what you need to unwind.

Whatever activity you choose, I encourage you to experiment with your weekends and vary the pattern of your recovery to learn how you can best show up refreshed on Monday morning.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/tracking-wonder/202209/the-science-weekend-recovery

Topley’s Top 10 – September 27, 2022

1. The Covid Gap in Total Federal Reserve Assets

From Steve Blumenthal CMG

https://www.cmgwealth.com/ri-category/on-my-radar/


2. 1970 Stagflation Stats vs. 2022

LPL Research—Barry Gilbert  

https://Iplresearch.com/2022/09/23/lunch-box-stagflation-isnt-your-70s-style-slowdown


3. Marketwatch-Global bonds are in first bear market in 76 years based on two centuries of data, says Deutsche Bank

Vivien Lou Chen

It’s been a terrible year for financial markets and perhaps even more so when you weigh 2022 against more than two centuries of data.

Global bonds are now in their first bear market in 76 years, after having dropped 20% from their peaks, according to Deutsche Bank research dating back to 1786. The last time global bonds fared so poorly was in 1946, the year that the first session of the United Nations was held in London after the end of World War II.

Read: A historic global bond-market crash threatens liquidation of the world’s most crowded trades, says BofA

SOURCE: GFD, DEUTSCHE BANK

Driving much of the brutal selloff in global bonds, which has sent yields soaring across developed markets, is expectations for much higher interest rates as central banks try to combat the highest inflation spell in 40 years. As financial-market players rush to factor in much higher rates, they’ve aggressively sold off government bonds — pushing yields to multiyear highs, particularly in the U.S.

Global government bonds have seen a decade’s worth of positive nominal returns wiped out, so far, based on a rolling 10-year return basis. “By the end of September 2022, this may be the worst rolling 10-year period for U.S. bonds in history,” Deutsche Bank researchers said.

“What makes this current period even worse historically is that we are now seeing deep losses in nominal terms which, for many countries, has never previously happened over a sustained period outside of wars or defaults,” said Deutsche Bank researchers Jim Reid, Henry Allen, Luke Templeman and Adrian Cox.

On Monday, investors and traders continued to sell off Treasurys, lifting the policy-sensitive 2-year yield TMUBMUSD02Y, 4.303% further above its highest levels of almost 15 years. Meanwhile, the rate on 2-year gilts TMBMKGB-02Y, 4.527%, the U.K. counterpart to Treasurys, soared above 4.5% as Bank of England Gov. Andrew Bailey said policy makers will not “hesitate to change interest rates as necessary” to bring inflation down to 2%.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/global-bonds-are-in-first-bear-market-in-76-years-based-on-two-centuries-of-data-says-deutsche-bank-11664210332?cx_testId=22&cx_testVariant=cx_1&cx_artPos=4&mod=home-page-cx#cxrecs_s


4. UK 5 Year Bonds Acting Like Third World Country

@lisaabramowicz1

https://twitter.com/lisaabramwicz1


5. Softbank Closes Below 200 Week Moving Average

Not sure if we should use this as lead/tell for venture capital forward returns….But Softbank approaching -50% from highs.

www.stockcharts.com


6. Coinbase has Surprisingly Not Made New Lows.

COIN holds above Summer lows

www.stockcharts.com


7. Copper -31%…Arguably the commodity to watch as macroeconomic indicator


8. Income Needed to Afford a House 2020 vs. 2022

@WallStreetSilv

https://twitter.com.WallstreetSilv


9. The Disappearance of the American Starter Home.

NY Times–By Emily BadgerThe disappearance of such affordable homes is central to the American housing crisis. The nation has a deepening shortage of housing. But, more specifically, there isn’t enough of this housing: small, no-frills homes that would give a family new to the country or a young couple with student debt a foothold to build equity.

The affordable end of the market has been squeezed from every side. Land costs have risen steeply in booming parts of the country. Construction materials and government fees have become more expensive. And communities nationwide are far more prescriptive today than decades ago about what housing should look like and how big it must be. Some ban vinyl siding. Others require two-car garages. Nearly all make it difficult to build the kind of home that could sell for $200,000 today.

Whatever Happened to the Starter Home? – The New York Times (nytimes.com)


10. 12 Efficiency Secrets of the World’s Busiest People

By Michael Pietrzak | September 20, 2022 | 4 

Picture this. On Friday morning you rush to the hospital with a sick child. Your partner is crying and you’re suffering from chronic lack of sleep. You cancel your 11 a.m. consultation with a potential client who’s clearly annoyed.

At 4 p.m. you’re supposed to start a brand-new college teaching job. Luckily the doctor gives the little one the all clear just in time for you to rush home for a quick shower. No time to review your lecture notes. You survive class, but a million tasks wait at home. You can’t get to them because friends have decided to “check-in,” and they’re staying for dinner.

Saturday morning you visit a coffee shop to work on that presentation for your day job. It’s due Monday. You’re about to put on headphones when a stranger strikes up a conversation. He’s your ideal client, so 90 minutes later you say, “Sorry, I have to get going.” Looking at your phone you find three texts that say, “Hey is this meeting happening?”

You missed your virtual team meeting for your side hustle, so you reschedule—that product launch will have to wait. At home you ignore the dishes from Friday’s half-eaten breakfast, open your laptop, and spend seven hours on sales calls. So much for Sunday off, you spend it finishing that presentation. Monday you’re back to the 9-5, and give a surprisingly expert performance. Nobody detects the cloud of chaos swirling around you.

This is life for most side hustlers: simultaneously invigorating and pressure-filled.

Is “having it all” inseparable from chaos? Yes, but no. Some disarray is built into the pursuit, but you can take back control. Here are 12 efficiency secrets for busy people like you who are building a side hustle while juggling a full-time job, a social life, exercise, sleep and 47 other desires.

1. Clarify your purpose.

Clear conviction is an unstoppable force. A clear “why” provides at least 80% of the motivation needed to achieve anything. Unfortunately, clear purpose is rare among side hustlers. Many say, “I’d like another $1,000 a month,” or, “I want to quit my job.” But when the sick kids and bad deals inevitably come to test your grit, “Gee, I’d like more money” will not carry you over the mountain. Success demands a “burning desire,” to paraphrase Napoleon Hill. And the only way to create that fire is to connect with your purpose at an emotional level.

Humans put forward logical explanations for decisions, but our emotions have a not-insignificant effect on our decision-making as well. So take the time to get emotional about your purpose. Write and think about it. Walk in the woods and scream it at the top of your lungs. Once your “why” is lodged in your heart, abundant motivation will tame the chaos.

2. Create a ‘Will Not Do’ list.

The Latin origin of decide, decidere, means “to cut off,” and cutting the nonessential is as important as selecting priorities. Most achievers have no trouble codifying clear goals but then let time-sucking “opportunities” creep into calendars. Be ruthless with your time in order to grow a business while balancing a full-time job and life responsibilities. Essentialism author Greg McKeown calls this “The power of a graceful no.”

Write a list of activities you refuse to do and plaster it on your walls. Start with obvious fluff, like post-work drinks. Then say a teary goodbye to activities that, while important, will not lead to your best life. Ruthlessness here might mean skipping that birthday party or telling your in-laws that Sunday dinner is no longer a tradition. When you mindfully choose the activities you’ll sacrifice, the gods of productivity will fortify you with the courage to say “no” when the time comes.

3. Play offense, not defense.

Billionaire Chris Sacca has a golden touch for investing. He bought early in Twitter, Uber and Instagram. You’ll know him from his tour of duty on ABC’s Shark Tank and his nifty cowboy shirts. The secret to his success? Unlike typical venture capitalists, he left Silicon Valley to get away from the constant stimulation, “just touching base” emails and endless coffee dates. “I was just reacting to everything, rather than actually going out and playing offense,” Sacca says. He moved three hours east to focus only on priorities he set, rather than every shiny opportunity.

You’re forced to play defense when your car breaks down, a client goes bankrupt or your child gets sick. But you can make a conscious decision to put the lion’s share of your focus on priorities that bring you closer to Goal City, and not let others control your time. Be unavailable; that’s playing offense. Yes, this means passing up exciting opportunities, but when you chase two rabbits you lose both.

4. Practice self-care.

The most neglected piece of any productivity plan is your most important asset: YOU. Best-selling author and business strategist Tony Robbins says that 80% of success is determined by your mindset. If the programming between your ears is delivering anxiety, doubt, fear and frustration, no amount of hustle or strategizing will deliver results.

One key to creating an optimal mindset is to invest in self-care: inspiring hikes in the woods, playing your favorite game, an excellent meal, time with close friends; whatever recharges your soul’s battery. You can’t do your best work when your mind and heart are overwhelmed. You wouldn’t constantly run an engine at the redline without oil, but Western culture applauds this same abuse when we inflict it on ourselves. Then we wonder why burnout strikes.

A word of caution: Brushing your teeth, taking your meds and reading self-help books is self-maintenance, not self-care. To accomplish more, prioritize compassionate activities that supercharge your spirit. For many entrepreneurs, this is the missing link in their success plan.

5. Leverage health hacks.

The standard disclaimer applies: this is not medical advice, talk to your doctor before you try any of these current favorites of some of the highest achievers in Silicon Valley.

  • Bulletproof coffee: Your morning cup mixed with grass-fed butter and MCT oil from coconuts. It provides the fuel your brain needs to function at its peak until lunchtime, leading to the next hack.
  • Intermittent fasting: Don’t put any food into your stomach for 16 hours in a 24-hour period. Simple. This means lunch at noon, dinner at 6 p.m., and your bulletproof coffee in the morning. Benefits include fat loss, muscle gain and growth of nerve cells in the brain, which unlocks peak performance.
  • Supplements: Nature provides loads of goodies. Ginkgo biloba may reduce anxiety and stress, and omega-3s can improve sleep and protect you from disease. Find the right cocktail for you.
  • Cut sugar: It can contribute to—or increase the risk of—disease, potentially suppress or weaken the immune system, impair cognition, and increase stress.
  • Sauna: Spending time in a sauna may trigger growth hormone production, improve physical endurance and improve cardiovascular health.

Take care of the vehicle that carries you through life and your work output will soar.

6. Play to your strengths.

Stop doing things you’re not great at. Yes, in a startup of one, you’ll need to tackle bookkeeping or mop floors. Essentialism author Greg McKeown calls these obligations the “slowest hiker” because they keep you from your destination. “Even activities that are ‘productive’—like doing research, or emailing… can be obstacles,” he says. They require energy better allocated to your strong suits.

Sure, you’ll feel proud teaching yourself how to code an app over three weekends. But you could outsource that to an expert in Croatia for $300. Sites like Upwork, Fiverr and Freelancer are a side hustler’s best friend.

To be truly efficient, spend maximum time applying your unique abilities. Are you a strong writer? Then delivering blog posts via an email list will be a better marketing strategy than creating video. You’re an amazing photographer? Find your tribe on Instagram and start selling there. Do not mistake activity for efficiency. Play to your strengths and your results will multiply.

6. Be the early bird.

Time is the one shared asset no one can create. Take advantage of the productivity goldmine that is your early morning hours. At the moment we wake, our willpower and creativity are highest and our minds are free from phone notifications, external demands and noise. Rising late forces you to rush to work, skip a healthy breakfast that activates your metabolism, and robs you of the solitude that creates calm and joy.

Tackle your most important work during these golden hours. Productivity master Brian Tracy calls this “eating the frog”—striking your ugliest, most-likely-to-procrastinate-on task off your list first. This doesn’t need to be unpleasant; string enough morning wins together and you’ll crave more, no matter how wart-covered the task.

How do you own your mornings? Author Robin Sharma suggests:

  • Exercise: Start with 20 minutes to activate healthy brain chemistry.
  • Reflect: Journal or meditate to create a productive mindset.
  • Inspire: Read or listen to books in order to lift your spirit.

8. Understand the maker’s vs. manager’s schedule.

In 2009, Paul Graham, co-founder of startup accelerator Y Combinator, wrote an essay entitled, Maker’s Schedule, Manager’s Schedule. Read it, and you’ll have a lightbulb moment about work rhythms. The Manager’s schedule is comprised of one-hour chunks, where you run from one task to the next. But the Maker needs clear, half-day sessions to excel. A coder or a writer can’t do great work in an hour; he can barely get started.

Side hustlers are Makers and Managers at different times, but tend toward managing. A business only succeeds by creating value, and creation is easier in those Maker periods. Wise entrepreneurs schedule Maker time first thing each morning, leaving frenetic Manager work for late-day.

Tim Ferriss simplifies this to the dictum: “Make before you manage.”

“Even token efforts allow me to reassure myself with ‘Don’t worry. You did produce something today,’” Ferriss says. First, understand which work belongs to each domain, then prioritize Maker time each week.

9. Always be shipping.

Planning is crucial, but over-planning is poison. Another hour of research, one more self-help book, a deep dive into the analytics—these are excuses to avoid action, a.k.a. procrastination. The antidote to “preparing to start syndrome” is to set yourself deadlines to “ship” regularly: Post the article, call the client, record the video, release the app, eat the frog. Author Seth Godin admits shipping is dangerous because it exposes us to criticism, failure and financial loss. His response? You can’t spend life curled up in a ball. “You’re going to ship anyway… why bother indulging your fear?”

Set regular, non-negotiable shipping goals that leave you not quite enough time to finish. Why hurry? Because according to Cyril Northcote Parkinson, author of Parkinson’s Law, “work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion.” You don’t need as much time as you think. Light a fire under yourself to ensure you’re getting in front of customers. That will provide valuable feedback about your strategy, and keep you motivated to keep going.

10. Overlap your efforts.

Always follow the “two birds with one stone” approach. This could mean getting paid for the same work multiple times, reusing blog content on multiple platforms or choosing a side hustle that complements your day job.

Brian Dean has built a thriving SEO training company, Backlinko.com, by producing quality blog posts. When he wanted to start marketing through YouTube, he didn’t create new content, he converted existing blog articles to video. This is working smarter, not harder. For you this might mean using your company’s data in your side business or sharing clients. Hustling as an interior designer? Take a job in a furniture showroom where you’ll meet a stream of clients. Just be sure to get written permission from the boss. Get rewarded for the same work more than once and your productivity multiplies.

11. Mind the analytics.

You can’t hit a target you can’t see, so you set goals. By extension, you can’t reach your goal without tracking progress. Analytics is the art of pulling valuable information from raw data. Your analytics can reveal how website visitors or app users are behaving and which features generate sales. But analytics become most powerful when applied to yourself.

You can track any metric. Simple ones include how many gym sessions or alcoholic drinks you had this week. Prioritize metrics tied to your main goals. If you market your side hustle through social media, create a spreadsheet that records your engagement rate, comments and clicks to your website from social networks. Does your business rely on a lead funnel? Then monitor leads, sales calls made and conversion rate to sales.

There’s also hidden power in analyzing your mindset. Any free daily mood tracking app will reveal which activities promote productivity and happiness—and which hamper you. Only when we analyze results can we evaluate our strategy. If you’re on track, the rosy picture will generate serious motivation.

12. Adjust your sails.

When he was a general in World War II, Dwight Eisenhower said, “No plan survives contact with the enemy.” The same is true off the battlefield: No business or life plan stays intact once we start executing. The process of planning is indispensable because it forces us to anticipate outcomes, setbacks and the resources we’ll need to succeed. But reality will always surprise us.

In your side hustle, you adapt or it dies. Tracking analytics shows us reality, but this information is valuable only when used to alter strategy. As you cross the gulf between your present and your desired future, be willing to navigate around reefs and storms, always pointed toward the port where fortune awaits.

* * *

The colossal test of building a business while working full-time and trying to have a semblance of a personal life can energize you like nothing else. One day you’ll look back on this struggle as the most beautiful chapter of your life. But the road to your most exceptional life is littered with boulders, and you’ll need every advantage to stay motivated. These 12 secrets are no magical shortcuts, but they will roll some of those stones out of the way.

This article originally appeared in the May/June 2020 issue of SUCCESS magazine and has been updated. Photo by G-Stock Studio/Shutterstock

Michael Pietrzak

Topley’s Top 10 – September 26, 2022

1. Dow Industrials and Dow Transports Break Previous Lows.

Dow also closes below 200 week moving average on long-term chart

Transports close below 200 week moving average

www.stockcharts.com


2. S&P and Nasdaq Right on Previous Lows

S&P about to break to new lows….Still above 200 week moving average in red

Nasdaq Composite above previous low but broke 200 week moving average

www.stockcharts.com


3. The FED is Hiking Faster and Further than Anytime in History

Chartr Blog The Fed’s 3×3-This week the Federal Reserve signed off on its third consecutive three-quarter point rate hike, lifting the benchmark federal funds rate to a range of 3-3.25%.

That’s an unprecedented pace of rate-rises in modern history, signaling the Fed’s strong resolve to get double-digit inflation under control. No other hiking cycle has started this steeply since the Fed started targeting the Effective Funds Rate in the 1980s.

www.chartr.com


4. VIX-Volatility Index Still Trading Below May 2022 Levels.

VIX still below $30….50day still trading below 200day


5. Airlines JETS ETF…..JETS Hits Mid-2020 Lows

www.stockcharts.com


6. Millennials Dumping ….Majority sold some or all of their investments

From Callum Thomas Chart Storm Generational Selling Opportunity:  Intriguing statistics. Seems just about every millennial sold some or all of their investments. Could have to do with life stages, but hard to guess what is specifically driving this. The other key thing that sticks out in this chart is that aside from millennials, everyone else has held tight. That gels with my previous observations about the difference between very bearish surveys vs relatively minor movement in equity allocations and margin positions.

Source:  @justLBell

https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-25-september


7. Elections Have Little Effect on Long-Term Returns-Capital Group

https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/midterm-elections-markets-5-charts.html?sfid=1988901890&cid=80830362&et_cid=80830362&cgsrc=SFMC&alias=F-btn-LP-18-A3cta-Advisor


8. Zillow-Monthly Mortgage Payments +58% Year Over Year

https://www.zillow.com/research/august-2022-market-report-31425/


9. Following All the “Disappearing” Russian Executives.

Zerohedge Blog Mysterious Deaths of Four Gazprom Executives

On Feb. 25, Gazprom executive Alexander Tyulakov was found hanged in a garage near St. Petersburg. Tyulyakov was Gazprom’s Deputy General Director of the Unified Settlement Center (UCC) for Corporate Security. Police and the company’s security department arrived at the scene almost immediately after the incident.

In late January, Leonid Shulman, head of the company’s investment and transportation services, was found dead in his bathroom with multiple stab wounds. Rusian media reported that a note was found next to him, stating that he couldn’t bear the pain from a leg injury.

On April 18, Vladimir Avayev, former vice president of Gazprombank, his wife and 13-year-old daughter were found dead in their Moscow apartment.

Investigators say Avayev, 51, killed his wife and daughter before taking his own life. His older daughter, 22, reportedly said that the door to the apartment was locked from the inside and there was no sign that anyone else was present at the time of the shooting.

However, people who contacted Avayev shortly before his death said he had been in a good mood and did not seem likely to shoot his family to death. Shortly thereafter, the company’s two other senior executives were found dead in a mansion compound near St. Petersburg.

In addition to these four deaths, in July, Yuri Voronov, the founder of Astra-Shipping, a transportation and logistics company and a contractor for Gazprom’s arctic projects, was found dead in the pool of his luxury villa outside St. Petersburg, shot in the head at close range.

In addition to the theory that the top executives knew too much about fraud, some suspect they were murdered because they opposed the Russia–Ukraine war, although none of them had publicly denounced Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/drowning-russian-executive-latest-string-mysterious-deaths


10. The Most Practical Skill in Life is Learning to Do Things when you don’t Feel Like Doing Them

Farnam Street Blog Tiny Thought

My high school football coach used to run us like crazy after a bad game. While I’m sure these tactics wouldn’t be accepted today, the lessons I learned in these moments still help me when things are hard.

The most practical skill in life is learning to do things when you don’t feel like doing them. Anyone can do it when it’s easy, but most people drop out the minute easy stops.

Muhammad Ali was asked how many sit-ups would do to prepare for a fight. His reply: “I don’t count my sit-ups. I only start counting when it starts hurting. When I feel pain, that’s when I start counting, because that’s when it really counts.” True to Ali’s mindset, our coach would only start counting the sprints when people started falling over.

Inevitably someone on the team would say they wanted to quit. The coach would shout back a bunch of things that can’t be repeated, but he’d finish with “If you really want to quit, you can quit tomorrow, but you can’t quit today.”

No one ever quit the next day.

The person who is consistent outperforms the person who is intermittent every time. While inconsistent effort works for some things, for the things that really matter you need to be consistent. If you want to be consistent, you need strategies to keep you going when things are hard.

The key to doing something you know you should do when you don’t feel like doing it is telling yourself that you can quit tomorrow but not today.

https://fs.blog

Topley’s Top 10 – September 23, 2022

1. 88% of High Grade Bonds Trading Below Par….Highest Number Since 2008 Crisis

Advisor Perspectives Blog—JP Morgan-About 88% of high-grade bonds in a Bloomberg index are trading below par through Tuesday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That compares to just 4% a year ago, highlighting the destruction on fixed-income returns wrought by inflation and a historically aggressive Federal Reserve rate-hike program.

“We’re seeing the bonds across the board, across all of our portfolios, trading at big discounts to par and as you know as long as they don’t default, they end up back at par,” Collins, PGIM senior portfolio manager, said on Bloomberg Television. “So you have this really positive long-term opportunity in fixed-income which we haven’t had in well over a decade.”

JPMorgan, PGIM Say It’s Time to Buy High-Grade Bonds With 88% Trading at Discount by Katie Greifeld  JPMorgan, PGIM Say It’s Time to Buy High-Grade Bonds With 88% Trading at Discount – Articles – Advisor Perspectives


2. Bonds Making New Lows Before Stocks….LQD-Corporate Grade Bond ETF Breaks to New Lows …

See 50-week blue line thru 200-week red line

www.stockcharts.com


3. Not Sure If It Matters with Rates Rising at this Pace but……Here is History of Stock Returns Following Mid-Term Cycle.

Dorsey Wright-As we are often reminded, past performance is not indicative of future results. However, the historical tendencies of past presidencies do point toward the potential for stronger returns following the mid-term election cycle. The third year of a presidential term shows an average gain of 13.51%, with year three showing a positive return in 18 of the 24 instances examined. In fact, Q4 of year two and Q1 of year three show the best back-to-back averages of any two quarters, with each averaging a gain of more than 5%.

https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright


4. Sentiment Trader…American Public at Record Bearishness

Found at Abnormal Returns Blog www.abnormalreturns.com


5. But Sentiment has not Shown Up in Mass Selling Yet …Fidelity Outflows

@TimmerFidelity

https://twitter.com/TimmerFidelity


6. Institutions and Hedge Funds Also Positioned Bearish

Bloomberg-ByMichael Msika Another gauge, CFTC’s S&P 500 net non-commercial futures, also shows an extremely negative view, having reached levels last seen during the downturns of 2008, 2011, 2015 and 2020. Such bleak sentiment is often seen as a contrarian indicator, flagging a rebound.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-21/equity-gloom-to-give-way-to-post-fed-bounce-if-history-is-right?sref=GGda9y2L


7. QQQ Nasdaq 100 Official Previous Low $272…Hold or Break?

www.stockcharts.com


8. Lithium Rises 4x in One Year

WSJ By Joe Wallace and Hardika Singh –Surging prices for lithium are intensifying a race between auto makers to lock up supplies and raising concerns that a shortage of the battery metal could slow the adoption of electric vehicles.

Lithium carbonate prices in China, the benchmark in the fast-growing market, stand at about $71,000 a metric ton, according to price-assessment firm Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. That is almost four times as high as a year ago and just below the record set this March in yuan terms.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/electric-car-demand-pushes-lithium-prices-to-records-11663749409?mod=itp_wsj&ru=yahoo


9. Despite pandemic, U.S. Latinos’ output eclipses U.K. and India GDPs

Axios Russell Contreras

Data:LDC U.S. Latino GDP Report; Chart: Tory Lysik/Axios

The total economic output of U.S. Latinos reached $2.8 trillion in 2020, surpassing the GDPs of the U.K. and India, according to a report released Thursday.

Why it matters: The report showed U.S. Latino buying power and economic output grew during the pandemic despite the disproportional impact it had on Latino communities, Russell writes.

By the numbers: The report showed U.S. Latino GDP grew 65% from 2010, when it was $1.7 trillion, to 2020.

  • In 2020, Latinos spent $1.84 trillion, representing a consumption market larger than the entire economies of Canada or South Korea, the report said.

Details: The study by the Latino Donor Collaborative, a non-profit organization researching Latino issues was unveiled Thursday at the L’attitude conference in San Diego.

  • That’s likely due to a strong workforce that rebounded quickly despite a disproportionate rate of infections, the report says.
  • Pay in low-wage positions like hospitality and service jobs — in which Latinos are overrepresented — also grew over the last couple of years as businesses struggled to find workers.

What they’re saying: “Latinos have proven to be a tremendous source of resilience for the broader U.S. economy, even in the face of a one-in-a-century global crisis such as COVID-19,” the report’s authors wrote.

  • “The performance of Latinos during the pandemic is exemplified by income data. From 2010 to 2020, Latinos enjoyed significantly higher wage and salary income growth than non-Latinos,” they added.

Go deeper: Report: U.S. Latino GDP tied with France, greater than Italy in 2019

Subscribe to Axios Latino to get vital news about Latinos and Latin America, delivered to your inbox on Tuesdays and Thursdays.

https://www.axios.com/2022/09/22/gdp-latino-2020-pandemic-uk-india


10. 5 Rejected Shark Tank Companies That Are Crushing It

 Ryan Peck

People love success stories, especially when the road to success was not smooth and assured. It’s those businesses that rise through rejections and adversity that make us realize that we, too, can take our businesses to new heights.

This is true even when people may not believe in these companies right now.

Consider companies that were ultimately rejected on the television show Shark Tank, for example. At first blush, it might look like a failure. However, some of those companies are doing remarkably well today. Let’s look at five of these businesses and see what lessons they hold.

1. Copa Di Vino

This is one of the most successful rejects from Shark Tank. The founder, James Martin, went on the show twice, but he never received an offer. The idea was relatively simple and something that should have been thought of years ago—sell wine by the glass rather than by the bottle: offering pre packaged glasses of wine, sold in recycled plastic containers. It now has a value of more than $25 million.

2. BedJet

When Mark Aramli went on Shark Tank and pitched BedJet, he was quickly rejected by everyone on the show. His invention was a fan system for under the sheets to keep everything cool. The Sharks were not impressed, and Aramli said  “They hated me and my product. They told me no one would ever want BedJet.”

However, that didn’t turn out to be true. He used his own money to fund the project rather than relying on investors. Within just a couple of years, his company is estimated to be valued at $16 million.

“Building a business is little more than a series of quick opportunities followed by a big a series of big obstacles. The opportunities arrive and leave so quickly that they’re way too easy to miss. If I hadn’t quit my job on a stranger’s suggestion the moment I heard it, I would have probably thought about it and not done it. Every great decision I’ve made in business since was made exactly that way — quickly without any thought. I’ve learned that thought gets in the way.” – Barbara Corcoran

3. Xero Shoes

Lena Phoenix learned that even though there wasn’t any additional investment money after appearing on Shark Tank in 2013, the publicity did wonders. After the show aired, there were an additional 3,000 orders for their sandals. Within a few years, the company has made more than $7 million in sales and has many customers around the world. They also set up a crowdfunding plan offering shares to investors, which provided them with money to expand

4. Nerdwax

This is a cleverly named product that can be helpful for anyone who has glasses that keep sliding off their nose. Enter Nerdwax, a wax that can be applied onto the nose pads of eyeglasses, which then help them to stay on the wearer’s face. It’s a simple product and seems like one that a lot of people with glasses would appreciate.

However, the Sharks did not believe that people would be willing to pay $10 per tube for this product. The idea was quickly rejected, but the owners now report more than $1 million in sales.

5. Ring

Most people today have heard of Ring but might not realize that it was originally called DoorBot and that it was a reject from Shark Tank. The creator, Jamie Siminoff, invented the security camera, which he says was worth about $7 million at the time of his appearance on the show in 2013. He didn’t get any traction from the Sharks as they all turned his idea down. However, just a few years later the company was bought by Amazon for $1 What You Should Take from These Stories

You will note that all the ideas that went on to become successful were sound ideas with fully-fledged products/services. They weren’t just a dream and an idea—the creators had already put a lot of time and effort into creating working products.

Just because they weren’t offered a deal, or at least not an agreeable deal, from the Sharks doesn’t mean that the business wasn’t viable. These owners had some of the most business savvy minds in the world reject their ideas and told them they would fail, but that wasn’t the case.

You will want to consider the types of products that were successful. They all focus on needs or wants—ways to make life better, easier, or safer. The products were helping to make real changes.

One of the most important lessons to learn from this is to believe in what you are doing. If you know there is an audience, if you can make the product affordably, and sell it for a profit, you can find success.

Believe in yourself and your products. Don’t let the doubters and naysayers dictate your future and steal your success.

Don’t let setbacks or lack of faith from potential investors keep you from your path to success.

 https://addicted2success.com/success-advice/5-rejected-shark-tank-companies-that-are-crushing-it/

Topley’s Top 10 – September 22, 2022

1. S&P 500 Approaching the Re-Test of Lows

S&P 500 Rolling Over to June Lows

$364 was low on the SPY S&P 500 ETF

www.stockcharts.com


2. Risk Appetite Lowest Since 2000 Internet Bubble.

https://twitter.com/GameofTrades


3. China Large Cap Breaks Previous Lows.

FXI China ETF makes new 2022 lows


4. China Ownership of U.S. Treasuries 14% of Total Down to 4%

From Irrelevant Investor Blog

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2022/09/21/animal-spirits-is-a-recession-bullish/


5. Commodity ETF COMT -20% Correction from Highs.

COMT trading below 200day

www.stockcharts.com


6. Two-Year Treasury Yield 4% for the First Time Since 2007

See top of chart RSI well overbought.


7. In Case Anyone Missed It Yesterday…….AGG (bond index) Outperformed BSV Short-term Bonds by 40 basis points in One Day

Longer Duration Outperformed Yesterday

www.yahoofinance.com


8. Euro Area GDP Growth….

Jim Reid-Deutsche Bank

The energy crisis in Europe means that 2023 will likely be behind only 2009 and 2020 as the worst year for the European economy since WWII. Today’s CoTD shows that DB expect Germany to see -3.5% GDP growth in 2022 and France at -1.2%. We expect euro area GDP to be at -2.2%.

These are pretty bleak numbers with Germany being most exposed to the gas shock. Even with voluntary gas use reduction, which is already hitting growth, the likelihood is that rationing in some form or another will have to come in before the end of winter.

See our economists’ latest views here in a big piece out today.

In addition, Adrian Cox in my team has put together an Energy Crisis 101 presentation pack today to look at the context on why it’s happened, what’s being done about it and what comes next. This is part of a new series where we are going to try to distil topics of great importance to financial markets to a generalist audience. Please see here for more and feel free to suggest future topics we can explore in this series.


9. American Congress 23% Over 70-Chartr Blog

New age

Congress could gain its first Gen Z member in January, as 25-year-old Maxwell Frost — a young Democrat backed by Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and other stalwarts of the DC scene — looks likely to fill a reliably-blue Floridian seat in the House.

President Biden, who would be 55 years older than Frost by the time the 118th Congress is sworn in, has fended off questions about his age throughout his tenure, most recently in an interview with 60 Minutes. However, the President isn’t the only politician in Washington who would feel old in the Gen Zer’s company.

Elder law 

Data compiled by Insider, and visualized above, shows how dramatically Congress has aged in recent years. A stunning 23% of Congress’ members are now over 70 years old, compared to twenty years ago when just 8% of legislators were 70+. If they keep their seats in November, two members would even turn 90 whilst serving in Congress next year.

With midterms just around the corner (8th of November) and POTUS’s 80th birthday not far behind, discourse around America’s aging congresspeople is getting louder — with a CBS poll showing remarkable bipartisan support for age limits of elected officials.

Go deeper: Insider’s Red, White, and Gray series is a thorough exploration of America’s gerontocracy.

www.chartr.com


10. Mark Cuban Says the Worst Career Advice Is ‘Follow Your Passion.’ What Should You Do Instead?

Turns out it’s something you already do. You just need to turn it up a notch.

BY JEFF HADEN, CONTRIBUTING EDITOR, INC.@JEFF_HADEN

Ask just about any motivational speaker or career expert. Or ask Steve Jobs:  As the Apple co-founder once said, “You’ve got to find what you love. The only way to do great work is to love what you do. If you haven’t found it yet, keep looking.”  

Most people believe passion comes first.

But not Mark Cuban. When Adam Grant asked him if there was a “worst piece of career advice you’ve gotten,” Cuban said:

Follow your passion? No.

Follow your effort. No one quits anything they’re good at.

While passion can spark effort, the reverse is more often true. Effort, and the improvement that results, creates passion. Do something poorly? You probably dread doing it. Do something well? You enjoy it — and the better you get, the more you like doing it.

Science agrees, especially where starting a business is concerned. According to a study published in Academy of Management Journal, the more effort entrepreneurs put into their startups or side hustles, the more enthusiastic they get about their businesses. 

Morningbrew CRIME

47 charged in massive $250m Covid fraud scheme

As startup founders gain skill, expertise, and experience, their enthusiasm grows — with or without early financial success. Effort, and resulting improvement, creates passion.

Not the other way around. 

‘Follow Your Passion’ Can Be Disastrous

It’s easy to confuse a hobby or interest for a passion, especially one that will result in career or business fulfillment. Rarely is that type of preexisting passion valuable. 

As Cal Newport writes in So Good They Can’t Ignore You: Why Skills Trump Passion in the Search for Work You Love, “Telling someone to follow their passion can be disastrous. That advice has probably resulted in more failed businesses than all the recessions combined, because that’s not how the vast majority of people end up owning successful businesses.”

That’s because most passions indicate interest, not effort. Plenty of people — maybe you’re one of them — are passionate about sports. Or adventure. Or travel. I enjoy motor sports, and I really like driving — or riding — fast.

But how much effort do you, or I, put into that passion? How much effort do we put into improving our talent, our knowledge, and our skills? In my case, not a lot. Passion only indicates interest.

Instead, ‘Follow Your Effort’

Passion is nearly always the result of significant time and effort, because effort leads to improvement and expertise. 

As Cuban wrote on his blog in 2012:

There are a lot of things I am passionate about. [But] the things I ended up being really good at were the things I found myself putting effort into. A lot of people talk about passion, but that’s really not what you need to focus on.

… when you look at where you put in your time, where you put in your effort, that tends to be the things that you are good at. And if you put in enough time, you tend to get really good at it.

If you put in enough time, and you get really good, I will give you a little secret: Nobody quits anything they are good at, because it is fun to be good. It is fun to be one of the best. 

But in order to be one of the best, you have to put in effort.

What you do in your spare time — not passively experience, but actively do — clearly indicates an interest. As Cuban would say, you’re already putting in the effort. 

So follow that effort. Every highly skilled person started learning, and then benefited from the virtuous cycle of effort and achievement: Effort leads to achievement, however small. Achievement feels good. Feeling good motivates you to put in more effort, leading to more achievement, more motivation, more effort–the result is a never-ending virtuous cycle.

Follow your effort, and place a little more structure around the process of improving, learning, and growing. The more effort you put in, the more enthusiastic you will get. The more passionate you will become. The more likely you will be to develop the talent and experience required to turn a passion into a new business or career. 

One where passion is not required, because in time you’ll realize you’re doing what you love. 

Even if it didn’t start as a passion.

Mark Cuban Says the Worst Career Advice Is ‘Follow Your Passion.’ What Should You Do Instead? | Inc.com\

Topley’s Top 10 – September 20, 2022

1. Ten-Year Treasury Yield Moves to Levels Last Seen in 2011

www.stockcharts.com


2. Stock/Bond Ratio Blows Past Modern Day Highs…S&P 500 divided by the U.S. Long-Term Treasury Bond Index

From Callum Thomas Chart Storm—Stock/Bond Ratio:  Wild.

Kind of speaks for itself, but to spell it out: equities are extremely stretched vs bonds. I suspect this will reverse eventually, and most likely when recession hits, inflation falls, and bonds finally start to fight back.

Source:  @AtlasPulse


3. One Short-Term Indicator Put/Call Ratio at Hit Extreme Levels

Sentiment continues to be the best feature of this market (for bulls). Friday’s equity put/call ratio $SPX got thru our threshold level, matched only by the levels seen at the June lows. Momentum and trends are not supportive, but positioning appears to be.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeffrey-degraaf-cmt-cfa/


4. Used Car Price Index Implodes Below Covid Levels….Another Inflation Easing Measure.

https://twitter.com/charliebilello


5. Energy Cost as a Percentage of GDP Europe and World

https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno


6. Germany Gas Storage 80% Full

Business Insider -Zahra Tayeb The race to shore up energy supplies looks to be going well, as German officials said the country’s natural gas storage has reached 80% full and is on track to meet its October storage targets early.

Germany lines up natural gas deals with Qatar and the UAE as it scrambles to replace Russian supplies

Zahra Tayeb 

3 minutes ago

Germany is racing to secure natural gas before winter hits as Russian supplies dry up. LOIC VENANCE/Getty Images

  • Germany is stacking up natural gas deals with Qatar and the UAE as Russia cuts off supply. 
  • It’s aiding the shift by releasing $2.5 billion of credit to inject into alternative gas supplies. 
  • “The gas offering is slowly broadening,” Germany’s economy minister told Reuters. 

Germany is closing in on natural gas deals with Qatar and the United Arab Emirates as it seeks to replace Russian energy, according to media reports. 

To facilitate such deals, the crisis-deep country released $2.5 billion to secure alternative gas supplies before winter hits, Bloomberg reported. 

German utilities RWE and Uniper are nearing an agreement on long-term deals to buy liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar’s North Field Expansion project, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

The talks between Germany and Qatar have been riddled with differences over the length of contracts and pricing, but a settlement is expected to be reached soon, Reuters reported. 

Zahra Tayeb 

3 minutes ag

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/europe-energy-crisis-germany-natural-gas-deals-qatar-uae-russia-2022-9


7. Improvement in Air Pollution Since 1990

Food for Thought: Lastly, here’s a look at declines in air pollution since 199

https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-september-19th-2022/


8. Wells Fargo Housing Market Index Hits 2006 Levels

Wolf Street Blog-The confidence of builders of single-family houses fell again in September, the ninth month in a row of declines, “as the combination of elevated interest rates, persistent building material supply chain disruptions, and high home prices continue to take a toll on affordability,” the NAHB report said.

With today’s index value of 46, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index is now below where it had been in May 2006, on the way down into the Housing Bust.

by Wolf Richter  https://wolfstreet.com/2022/09/19/housing-bubble-woes-home-builders-cut-prices-pile-on-incentives-amid-plunging-traffic-of-buyers-spiking-cancellations-holy-moly-mortgage-rates/


9. Quant Driven Home Buying Lost Money on 42% of Flips

Bloomberg-The slump has been especially harsh for Opendoor Technologies Inc., pioneer of a data-driven spin on home-flipping known as iBuying.

The iBuying model relies on acquiring homes, making light repairs and reselling the properties — often within a few months of the initial purchase. When home prices were skyrocketing earlier in the year, Opendoor banked easy profits. Then dwindling affordability and mortgage rates soaring toward 6% this spring finally pushed would-be buyers to the sidelines.

The company, which sells thousands of homes in a typical month, lost money on 42% of its transactions in August, according to research from YipitData. Opendoor’s performance — as measured by the prices at which it bought and sold properties — was even worse in key markets such as Los Angeles, where the company lost money on 55% of sales, and Phoenix, where the share was 76%.

By Patrick Clark and Elizabeth Kane https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-19/home-flipper-opendoor-hit-with-losses-in-echo-of-zillow-collapse?srnd=premium&sref=GGda9y2L


10. The More Senior Your Job Title, the More You Need to Keep a Journal

by Dan Ciampa

Summary.   Being a CEO can be a lonely job–there is no obvious person in whom to confide. Keeping a journal can fill that void, by giving a new leader a chance for structured reflection of recent past events and decisions, and mental rehearsal for future ones. Despite the…more

For leaders assuming the CEO title for the first time, taking time to learn and think translates into early successes. But the problem is there’s little time to do either. Information comes at them more quickly, more people than ever before demand their time, and they’re told that the myriad decisions piled in front of them are all important.

If hired from outside, there is a new culture to get used to and it’s not clear who to trust. Even when promoted from inside, the pace can be jarring compared to running a division in the same company. In both cases, any new leader must manage intense exposure (as it sinks in that top leaders have few places to escape to) and unrealistic expectations (of both self and others).

There is nothing new leaders can do to avoid these problems completely. All they can control is how they react to them. Because we tend to make mistakes when things speed up, especially when in unfamiliar territory, it can make all the difference to find ways to slow things down.

The French philosopher Blaise Pascal pointed out that “All of humanity’s problems come from man’s inability to sit quietly in a room alone.” He didn’t mean sitting quietly in front of a laptop responding to emails. The best thinking comes from structured reflection — and the best way to do that is keeping a personal journal.

I started keeping a journal when I took over a manufacturing research, software, and consulting firm. I was very young, we were in crisis facing a challenging market, and I wasn’t sure whom I could rely on. I kept a journal through my 12 years as chairman and CEO and have since recommended it to people moving into any senior position for the first time.

There’s strong evidence that replaying events in our brain is essential to learning. While the brain records and holds what takes place in the moment, the learning from what one has gone through — that is, determining what is important and what lessons should be learned — happens after the fact during periods of quiet reflection.

Also, when we slow things down and reflect, we can be more creative about solving seemingly inscrutable problems. Take, for example, a technique called the “second solution method” that I’ve used in the past. If a group was struggling to come up with options to solve a tough problem, we would brainstorm to identify a list of possible solutions. Before switching to prioritizing, making items specific, etc., we tried to identify all possible options. I found the best approach was to tell the group to take a break and when it reconvened to ask, “What else occurs to you?” Inevitably, this simple question resulted in about 50% more items, often of higher quality. By experimenting, I found that the break that took place between the first and second rounds was more important than the question. A journal is an effective, efficient, private way to take a similar break.

Journal entries should provide not only a record of what happened but how we reacted emotionally; writing it down brings a certain clarity that puts things in perspective. In other cases, it’s a form of mental rehearsal to prepare for particularly sensitive issues where there’s no one to talk with but yourself. Journals can also be the best way to think through big-bet decisions and test one’s logic.

While personality, style, and situation cause different approaches, some guidelines have proven useful for the best results. Notes should be made as soon as possible after an event from which one wants to learn—ideally the same day. Waiting more than 24 hours seems to sacrifice specificity about details that made the most difference and why they happened.

An entry should begin with the primary outcome — the headline that best captures the major result. Then, list the essential reason for that outcome; an always-subtle root cause made apparent by asking “why?” five times to peel back each layer, revealing what came before. (I remember reviewing my journal once and realized that several big-bet decisions turned on the right question asked at just the right point in the debates. Fortunately, my notes were in enough detail that they showed that the same subordinate asked the right question each time. I started listening to him much more closely). Third, recall the emotions that affected decision making and why they flared. Last, identify what you can learn from the whole experience and what you can do differently next time.

Many will opt to keep a journal on their computer or iPad. While that may be more efficient, the point of keeping a journal is not efficiency but to reflect and slow things down so that learning is maximized. For that purpose, handwriting may work better. The novelist Paul Theroux has said that he writes long-hand because, “The speed with which I write with a pen seems to be the speed with which my imagination finds the best… words.” He noted a 2011 Newsweek article that said, “Brain scans show that handwriting engages more sections of the brain than typing [and] it’s easier to remember something once you’ve written it down on paper.”

With so many benefits of keeping a journal, why do so few leaders do it?

  • It takes time, a most precious asset. Because a journal requires reflection, it’s best done during quiet periods, which are rare for any leader.
  • Sometimes, keeping a journal requires reliving something one would just as soon forget. Even though a vital step in learning, it’s unpleasant.
  • Because many leaders prefer to rapidly move on to the next challenge, reflection is not high on their list of things they enjoy or have much experience with.
  • Like any tool, it takes time to perfect the best way to use it. The methodology offered here did not happen right away, but came after many trials and errors.

These are minor drawbacks compared to the benefits. Slowing things down leads to better-thought-through, more effective judgement and to learning what to do more of and what to change. One result, as important as anything, is an increase in the satisfaction that should come from being in charge. A personal journal should be part of any leader’s toolkit.

https://hbr.org/2017/07/the-more-senior-your-job-title-the-more-you-need-to-keep-a-journal?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=hbr&utm_source=LinkedIn&tpcc=orgsocial_edit

Topley’s Top 10 – September 19, 2022

1. Dow Transports Break Below Summer Lows

Transports break below July lows

Transports approaching 200 week moving average on long-term chart

 www.stockcharts.com


2. EFA Developed International Markets Trades Back to 2020 Levels

Developed International trading below 200 week moving average erases 2 years of gains ….Europe just getting started raising rates

 www.stockcharts.com


3. Record Low Allocation to Eurozone Markets

Callum Thomas Chart Storm Exiting the Eurozone:  Allocations to Eurozone equities dropped to a record low in the latest BofA fund manager survey. Europe is basically the epicenter of the 2022 macro meltdown, so we should expect this – maybe we can call it rational fear (but at some point it becomes irrational (and a source of opportunity)).

Source:  @HumbleStudent

https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-18-september


4. Emerging Markets Similar Chart….Back to 2020 Levels.

EEM-Emerging markets …watch for 50week moving average (blue) to cross below 200 week average (red)

 www.stockcharts.com


5. TWLO another Covid Favorite Announces Layoffs

$425 to $73…clear 50 week thru 200 week to downside.

www.stockcharts.com


6. Blackrock 60/40 Chart Re-Testing 200 Week Moving Average

www.stockcharts.com


7. U.S. Household Wealth Fell by Record in Second Quarter….$6.1 Trillion…Stocks, Bonds, Real Estate All Down Together

Sept 9 (Reuters) – U.S. household wealth fell by a record $6.1 trillion in the second quarter to its lowest in a year as a bear market in stocks far outweighed further gains in real estate values, a Federal Reserve report showed on Friday.

Household net worth tumbled to $143.8 trillion at the end of June from $149.9 trillion at the end of March, its second consecutive quarterly decline, the Fed’s quarterly snapshot of the national balance sheet showed. Through June, Americans’ collective wealth had fallen by more than $6.2 trillion from a record $150 trillion at the end of 2021.

The net drop in wealth in the second quarter was about $30 billion larger than the previous record decline notched two years earlier, as the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic upended financial markets. That decline – in the second quarter of 2020 – still stands as the largest on a percentage basis at 5.2% versus 4.1% in the most recent report.

The latest fall was led by a $7.7 trillion decline in stock market values as equities slid into a bear market in the first half of the year on worries about surging inflation and the Fed’s aggressive response with interest rate increases. The equity market drop outstripped a $1.4 trillion gain in real estate values.

Total nonfinancial debt rose at a 6.5% annualized rate after rising at an 8.3% rate in the first quarter, the Fed data showed. Household debt growth also slowed to a 7.4% annual rate from 8.3% in the first three months of the year, while business, federal, state and local government debt levels all rose.

Reporting by Dan Burns; Editing by Paul Simao and Bill Berkrot

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-household-wealth-falls-again-second-quarter-fed-says-2022-09-09/


8. Lowest World Population Growth Since 1950

From Advisors Perspective Blog-The world’s population continues to grow, but the pace of growth has slowed to a rate of under one percent, a pace not seen since 1950. The populations of 61 nations are projected to decrease by 1% or more between now and 2050.

The Decline of Demographicsby Vaibhav Tandon, Ryan James Boyle of Northern Trust,

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/09/16/the-decline-of-demographics


9. Inflation Causing Hardship Across Working and Middle Class

https://www.statista.com/chart/26334/effect-of-price-increases-on-the-financial-situation-of-households/


10. Getting Through Any Obstacle in Life

An agile mind will help you push forward.

Elaine Fox Ph.D.

The world can feel like an uncertain place. Unless we can learn to live with not being sure, it’s very easy for us to become overwhelmed. What my research in psychology and neuroscience has taught me is that getting used to the intrinsic uncertainty of the world is essential for success: the people who thrive are those with the ability to accept and adapt to constant change and uncertainty.

The good news is that we can improve our ability to adapt. It takes practice and we often need to push ourselves outside our comfort zone. I managed to overcome my reluctance to speak in public and adapted over time to the demands of being an academic psychologist.

Harnessing the benefits of an agile mind can be transformative. It’s important to remember that we are active stewards of our own well-being, rather than passive victims of change and so we must actively manage our approach to life. Our natural skills of agility are necessary to help us navigate a complex and unpredictable world. I have seen time and again how developing an agile mindset—the capacity to flex our thoughts, feelings, and actions—can transform our lives and bolster our resilience. 

Maintaining a flexible mind allows us to thrive amid change. The first step is to accept that change and uncertainty are an inescapable part of life. Our lives will change, many times, sometimes for the better, sometimes for the worse. It is how we navigate those shifts that shape our present and our future happiness. If you are reluctant to change, or wary of trying out new things, this is something you need to work on.

Whether it is coping with a difficult boss, managing a complex team, dealing with hyperactive children, resolving a dispute with a friend, or boosting your energy, you need an internal compass that helps you choose the right strategy for the moment. If this compass is off even slightly, you can veer a long way from your course. Here are four important ideas that will point you in the right direction as you navigate your way through life.

  • Mental agility: The capacity to be agile and nimble in how you think, act, and feel so that you can navigate your way through all sorts of terrain, the rough as well as the smooth, and adapt well to changing circumstances. The science shows that agility is made up of four distinct components—what I call the “ABCD of agility,” adaptability, balancing our life, changing or challenging our perspective, and developing our mental competence.
  • Self-awareness: An ability to look inside yourself so that you can gain a deep self-understanding and appreciation of your core values. This will help you become more aware of your hopes, dreams, and abilities.
  • Emotional awareness: Part of self-awareness, but so important in our lives that it becomes a pillar of its own. Learning to accept and nurture all your emotions, those that feel bad as well as those that feel good, is vital. As is the ability to regulate your emotions and harness them in service of your values and goals rather than letting them boss you around.
  • Situational awareness: This feeds off two of the other pillars, self-awareness, and emotional awareness, but also incorporates the capacity to understand your immediate surroundings—to look outside—so that you gain a deep intuitive awareness of the context as well as your own“gut feelings.” This mix of inner and outer awareness informs you as to how well you can operate in that environment.

These four vital psychological talents are a potent mental weapon to help you make the decision to stick or to switch to another approach, and to get that decision right more times than you get it wrong. Ultimately, that will help you to operate at the top of your game.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-nature-human-emotions/202209/getting-through-any-obstacle-in-life

Topley’s Top 10 – September 13, 2022

1. Margin Debt as a Percentage of Market Value Coming Down.

Amazing how high this chart has stayed since 2005 due to super low-rate environment.

From Steve Blumenthal On My Radar CMG Wealth  https://www.cmgwealth.com/ri-category/on-my-radar/


2. No Earnings Recession in America Yet

Irrelevant Investor blog-As earnings season wraps up, we’re still not seeing much deterioration in corporate America. S&P 500 earnings grew 6.3% for the second quarter, with 75% of companies beating bottom-line expectations. S&P 500 earnings grew 6.3% for the second quarter, with 75% of companies beating bottom-line expectations. This looks nothing like a recession, where the average decline in earnings is 21.3%.

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2022/09/09/the-bullish-case/


3. Contra Indicator….Retail Investors Fleeing Equities

BofA Survey Shows Investors Fleeing Equities en Masse on Fear of Recession

  • Record 52% of respondents underweight stocks, cash levels jump
  • Hartnett sees short-term stock rally before declines resume
By

Sagarika Jaisinghani

Investors are fleeing equities en masse amid the specter of a recession, with allocations to stocks at record lows and cash exposure at all-time highs, a Bank of America Corp. survey showed.

A historically high 52% of respondents said they are underweight equities, while 62% are overweight cash, according to the bank’s global fund manager survey, which included 212 participants with $616 billion under management in the week through Sept. 8.

As concerns over the economy escalate, the number of investors expecting a recession has reached the highest since May 2020, strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote in a note on Tuesday. Sentiment is “super bearish,” with the energy crisis further weighing on risk appetite, they said. A net 42% of global investors are underweight European equities, the largest such position on record.

Global stocks have had a roller-coaster ride in the past few months. Declines have been driven by fears that central banks will remain hawkish for longer and tip the economy into a recession, while rallies have been fueled by low investor positioning and optimism around peaking US inflation.

Strategists at top banks including Deutsche Bank AG and JPMorgan Chase & Co. say bleak investor sentiment — often a contrarian indicator for a stock rally — is likely to drive equities higher into the year-end.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-13/bofa-survey-shows-nadir-in-stock-allocations-amid-recession-fear?srnd=premium&sref=GGda9y2L


4. 30 Year Treasury Yield Breaks Out to New Highs

Still Below 10-Year Highs

https://www.macrotrends.net/2521/30-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart


5. One-Year Implied Inflation Falling in Unison with Crude Oil Prices.

JP Morgan Private Bank

https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/gl/en/home


6. Natural Gas Futures in Europe Plunge 44% from Peak

by Wolf Richter  Storage above target, floating LNG import terminals going into service.

The prices of natural gas futures in Europe, after increasing 20-fold since March 2021, have plunged amid falling demand, above-target gas-storage increases, a growing list of floating LNG import terminals, and surging imports of LNG from the US and other parts of the world.

The front-month October TTF contract in the Netherlands – a benchmark for northwest Europe – plunged by 8% on Monday from Friday, and by 44% from the peak on August 26, to €191.02 per megawatt-hour (MWh) at the close today (data via Investing.com).

The spike in futures prices was driven by speculation following Russia’s threats to cut, and then by its actual cuts, of gas deliveries to Europe. But those sky-high prices caused large shifts, not only lowering demand but also lining up new supply. And with this type of huge spike, and then plunge, there may well be some big energy speculators and assorted hedge funds that ended up on the wrong side with massively leveraged positions.

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/09/12/natural-gas-futures-plunge-44-from-peak-in-europe/


7. U.S. Gasoline Down 89 Consecutive Days…Longest Streak Since 2015


8. One-Third of Workers Would Quit Before Returning 5 Days a Week

Bloomberg-About one-third of US workers would quit or start looking for another job if told to return to the workplace five days a week, higher than the global average. The rate was highest in the UK.  By

Katia Dmitrieva and

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-08/work-from-home-is-loved-worldwide-even-if-wall-street-hates-it?srnd=premium&sref=GGda9y2L


9. The Top Ranked Colleges List That No One Likes

EDUCATION -Morning Brew

The list that no one likes is out 

Jon Lovette/Getty Images

US News & World Report released its yearly ranking of the best colleges in the country yesterday. But this year’s list comes amid a growing number of complaints about how the scores that mean a lot to wide-eyed future loan borrowers (and the administrators who will eventually ask them for money) are calculated.

Besides controversial criteria like incoming students’ SAT scores and the level of alumni donations, one of the main problems critics have with the list is that it attributes 20% of its ranking formula to what amounts to basically a popularity contest. US News sends a yearly survey to college admins asking them to rate other schools’ “academic quality.”

Even Education Secretary Miguel Cardona, although not referring to the US News list directly, said last month that college rankings that value reputation above things like economic mobility are “a joke.”

There’s even more drama this year…Columbia University dropped from No. 2 to No. 18 because it didn’t submit any data while it investigated a math professor’s claims that the school might be fudging some numbers. On Friday, the university admitted to the fudging.

Final fun fact: 19 of the top 20 schools on this year’s list cost $55,000+ per year to attend.—MM

https://www.morningbrew.com/daily


10. Walking and Alzheimer’s

People who do this one thing every day have HALF the dementia risk than the rest of us

Brett Arends

The things to remember about dementia are that it is absolutely horrible for you and everyone around you; it’s a high probability; and when it comes to fighting it or avoiding it you are pretty much on your own.

Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias are currently killing 6.5 million people in the United States and devastating the lives of many times that when you count the patients’ friends and family. The National Institutes of Health reckons this number is likely to double in the next four decades.

The last study found that people in their 70s had nearly a one in three chance of getting this horrific brain disease before they died, and that was a study of the people born in the 1920s. Those born later, who are likely to live longer, face an even higher risk.

Meanwhile the amount that the federal government spends each year on research to fight this disease is less than 0.1% of the amount it spent during two years fighting Covid. Or, to put it another way, at current rates, Uncle Sam will take more than 1,000 years to spend as much on Alzheimer’s research as he spent fighting COVID-19. Meanwhile, a new scandal has raised questions about how much research into dementia over the past 15 years was based on faulty data.

So I’ll take the good news where I can get it, and some very heartening new data has just been published in JAMA (Journal of the American Medical Association) Neurology.

In a nutshell: Just walking a lot more could do a lot to cut our risks of developing dementia. It could actually cut our risk in half.

And, remarkably, the ideal target is about 9.800 steps a day: In other words, just shy of the magic 10,000 steps a day figure — a number that was apparently plucked out of the blue by the marketing department of a Japanese clock company several decades ago.

Weird, but true.

The latest findings were based on a study of nearly 80,000 people in the U.K. over several years. They involved comparing actual data from step counters, such as Fitbits, worn by subjects with follow-ups 7 years later.

“In this cohort study, a higher number of steps was associated
with lower risk of all-cause dementia,” report the authors. “The findings suggest that a dose of just under 10,000 steps per day may be optimally associated with a lower risk of dementia. Steps performed at higher intensity resulted in stronger associations.”

Those who walked 3,800 steps a day had a 25% lower risk of developing dementia in the study. Those who walked 9,800 had a 50% lower risk. Those who walked at least 6,000 steps and who walked reasonably quickly for about half an hour a day had 62% lower likelihood of developing dementia.

Naturally in the real world there are all sorts of caveats. How far are we looking at correlation or causation? Will other studies find similar things? If the follow-ups were just 7 years later, what would longer term numbers show?

We’ll have to stay tuned for more research, as usual. Meanwhile, I will take what I can get. I bought a $25 step counter for my wrist from Amazon a couple of years ago. It’s rapidly turning into my best healthcare investment.

There are three key takeaways from the research.

The first is that the benefits of walking really seem to kick in if you average at least 3,800 steps a day.

The second is that the optimum average is about 9,800.

And the third is that just casually wandering around doesn’t get you the full benefit. For maximum advantage, we should try to walk “purposefully,” at a rate of “112 steps a minute,” for at least half an hour a day.

Human beings, of course, spent most of the last million years walking lots every day, eating unprocessed foods, and fasting a lot when there was no food around. It is probably no coincidence that despite all the gazillions spent on advanced medical techniques, we are slowly rediscovering that our bodies really want to walk a lot, eat unprocessed foods, and fast a lot.

Who knew?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/people-who-do-this-one-thing-every-day-have-half-the-dementia-risk-than-the-rest-of-us-11662994041?mod=home-page

Topley’s Top 10 – September 12, 2022

1. Remove Top 10 Stocks from S&P….Remaining Group 14.6x P/E

JP Morgan

https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/


2. Bond Bear Market-AGG Bond Index -21% in 20 Months….Down More than S&P in 12 Months.

Bearish chart…50 week moving average thru 200 week to downside…trading below 200 week moving average and approaching new lows

www.stockcharts.com


3. Gas Prices $5.02 to $3.72

From Sam Ro According to GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan, the national average price of gasoline fell to $3.72 on Friday, down from its high of $5.02 on June 14. This is great news as energy is a major driver of most measures of inflation.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/two-ways-of-thinking-about-this-chart-of-stocks-and-recessions-132828658.html


4. SPAC ETFs are Being Delisted

Callum Thomas Chart Storm SPAK OFF: SPACs were probably the most blatant symbol and symptom of the liquidity tidal wave the swept across markets in the wake of the pandemic. True frenzy.

And now the SPAC ETFs are being delisted.

Bottom or not, it tells you a lot.

https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-10-september


5. Solar ETF Data

Barrons-One example of how flows shifted in clean-energy funds was the Invesco Solar ETF (ticker: TAN), which saw assets under management rise from $418 million in early 2020 to peak at $5.2 billion in early 2021 after rising 233% in 2020. From 2021 through May 2022, assets fell to $1.79 billion as prices retreated, although as of early September assets are at $2.9 billion.

TAN ETF -50% Correction from $120 High …rally back to $87

ESG Sector ETFs Could Be Volatile. What to Do Instead. By Debbie Carlson

 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/esg-sector-etfs-volatile-51662588284?mod=past_editions


6. VCs pour $14.2B into crypto in H1 2022, but investments now slowing –

BRAYDEN LINDREA KPMG noted that despite the expected downfall, investment figures remained well-positioned in comparison to pre-2021 figures, which highlights the growing maturity of the market. 2:58

Venture capital firms poured $14.2 billion into crypto across 725 deals in the first half of 2022, but big four accounting firm KPMG predicts investments will likely slow for the remainder of the year.

According to a newly released KPMG report on Tuesday, the largest investments in H1 2022 came from German-based crypto trading platform Trade Republic ($1.1 billion), digital asset custody platform Fireblocks ($550 million), crypto exchange FTX ($500 million), and Ethereum software company ConsenSys ($450 million).

Authors of the report, including KPMG’s global leader of fintech, Anton Ruddenklau, noted the investment figures for the first half of 2022 alone were already more than double all years prior to 2021, which “highlights the growing maturity of the space and the breadth of technologies and solutions attracting investment.”

However, Ruddenklau said that over-investment during the record-breaking 2021 and first half of 2022, along with a looming potential recession, rising inflation, interest rates and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, would bring about a drop off in investment this year.

Total global investment activity (VC, PE and M&A) in blockchain & cryptocurrency. Source: KPMG.

KPMG’s prediction for a crypto investment downturn appears to already be borne out in data from July, with monthly inflows into the blockchain venture capital market declining 43% in the month, according to Cointelegraph Research. 

Ruddenklau expects the slowdown of crypto interest and investment to be particularly felt in retail firms offering coins, tokens and nonfungible tokens (NFTs). 

Alexandre Stachtchenko, director of blockchain & crypto assets of KPMG France, stated in the report that “well-managed crypto companies with healthy risk management policies, long-term vision, and strong cost and risk management approach” will best position themselves to survive the current bear market:

“Of course, some cryptos will die out — particularly those that don’t have clear and strong value propositions. That could actually be quite healthy from an ecosystem point of view because it’ll clear away some of the mess that was created in the euphoria of a bull market. The best companies will be the ones that survive.”

Stachtchenko added that financial institutions have become increasingly interested in blockchain infrastructure solutions and stablecoins to capitalize on the operational advantages of distributed ledger technology.

KPMG also expects further investment efforts in underdeveloped fintech markets, particularly in Africa. 

Efforts on this front have been made by crypto exchange Binance, which recently entered into early-stage talks with the Nigerian government to build a crypto-friendly economic zone with the aim to generate long-term economic growth through digital innovation.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/vcs-pour-14-2b-into-crypto-in-h1-2022-but-investments-now-slowing


7. Chinese ownership of U.S. farmland…20x rise from 2010-2020

Big Trouble in Little Texas

This isn’t the first time a question has been raised in China’s stake in the U.S.

The plug was pulled on a similar wind energy project in Del Rio, Texas, in April when state officials realized two key issues:
1.    The land dedicated to the wind farm is miles from the Laughlin Air Force Base.
2.    The Chinese company hired to carry out the job is owned by a former member of the Chinese military who has direct ties to China’s ruling communist party.

Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX), who unsuccessfully pushed for the Trump Administration to reconsider allowing GH America Energy—a Chinese energy company—to purchase 130,000 acres in Val Verde County, Texas, in early 2021, has sought out secondary avenues.

In April 2021, Gonzales cosponsored the Protecting Military Installations and Ranges Act of 2021, which aims to place restrictions on certain property purchases entities in Russia, China, Iran or North Korea.

https://www.agweb.com/news/policy/politics/chinas-latest-land-purchase-could-pose-major-us-security-risk


8. Homebuilders Margins at Record Levels? Inflation and Housing Bear Market but Margins at Record Levels

John Burns Real Estate-Post-Covid Home Builder Gross Margin Hockey Stick chart below.
Home builders can drop price 8% and still achieve historically normal margins.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/johnburns7/


9. China has secured Russian gas at a 50% discount until the end of this year

  • China has inked a deal for Russian natural gas at half price through the end of this year.
  • The deal comes as Europe faces a near total cutoff from Russian gas supplies as winter nears. 
  • Dutch TTF futures soared 28% after Russia announced an indefinite halt of Nord Stream 1 this week. 

Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox.

China continues to ramp up imports of Russian natural gas, recently securing a deal for supplies from the Sakhalin 2 operator at a 50% discount until the end of the year, according to a report from Bloomberg. 

China imported 29% more Russian liquefied natural gas in the first half of the year than in 2021, and imports soared to their highest level since 2020 in August, according to Bloomberg data. That’s cemented its spot as one of Russia’s largest energy customers since the invasion of Ukraine, snapping up crude and natural gas at hefty discounts while the West attempts to pull back from the consumption of Russian energy commodities. 

China’s appetite for Russian energy isn’t showing signs of ebbing, as the country has recently struck a deal with Russia’s Sakhalin-2 LNG plant to purchase natural gas supplies at half the current spot price, traders familiar with the matter told Bloomberg on Wednesday.

The deal complicates matters overseas, where Europe faces a looming energy crisis that could be worsened by a potential shutoff from Russian gas this winter. China snapping up Russian gas means less competition on the spot market for European and Asian suppliers, but they’ll shoulder the cost of more expensive alternative supplies.

And Europe has already suffered from soaring energy prices. Dutch TTF futures, the European benchmark for natural gas, recently soared 28% after Russia announced an indefinite shutoff of the key Nord Stream 1 pipeline, up to 268 euros per megawatt hour. 

It’s also affected consumers’ electricity bills, as power is generated from natural gas. And German baseload power, the European benchmark for electricity, has skyrocketed to more than 1,400% above the average in the previous decade, breaking 700 euros per megawatt hour for the first time in August.

It gives a glimpse of the difficult winter ahead, the one upside being that China has been reselling its natural gas surplus to Europe ahead of winter. Already, 4 million tonnes of LNG have been passed off to the energy-strapped continent, largely due to decreased demand in China from its continued lockdown restrictions.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-natural-gas-china-lng-europe-energy-crisis-discount-asia-2022-9


10. ‘Too much free time won’t make you happier,’ says psychologist—how many hours you really need in a day

Published Thu, Sep 8 20229:18 AM EDTUpdated 3 Hours Ago

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Cassie Holmes, Contributor

I remember in 2013, sitting on the late-night train home from New York City to Philadelphia, feeling utterly overwhelmed with life. For a working mother, it felt like there weren’t enough hours in the day to get everything done.

My research has since shown that I wasn’t the only one who was struggling. As a social psychologist and behavioral science professor at UCLA, I wanted to know: Will having more hours of free time actually make us more satisfied in life?

So I enlisted my colleagues to study how tens of thousands of Americans spent a regular day, as well as their overall happiness levels. The results were illuminating.

Too much free time won’t make you happier in life

First, we calculated how much time people had in a day to spend on discretionary activities, such as relaxing, watching TV, playing sports or hanging with friends.

Then we tested how that calculated amount of time related to their satisfaction in life.

What we found was that two to five hours of free time in a day is ideal for boosted happiness. Having less than two hours or more than five hours of free time a day, however, decreased happiness.

From “Happier Hour: How to Beat Distraction, Expand Your Time, and Focus on What Matters Most,” by Cassie Holmes.

Photo: Cassie Holmes

The data confirmed that I was “time poor” — or feeling like I had too little time available to do all that I needed and wanted to do.

Nearly half of Americans feel they are in the same spot, according to a Gallup poll. Other studies have also shown that being “time poor” makes us more depressed, stressed and emotionally exhausted.

On the other hand, regularly having more than five hours of discretionary time in the day is too much, because it undermines one’s sense of purpose.

It’s worth pointing out that having a sense of purpose does not require working in a paid job. For example, unpaid volunteer work often provides a sense of purpose.

Additionally, tasks required to produce well-functioning households or for successful parenting can similarly offer a satisfying sense of accomplishment.

Yet I recognized that in my case, work gives me a significant source of purpose.

Free time is important, but so is how you spend it

The flatness of life satisfaction between two and five hours suggests that, except at the very extremes, the way we spend our free time matters a great deal.

We have 24 hours in a day, but the way we perceive time is subjective. This is important because how long a minute, an hour, a day, or a decade feels informs whether you view yourself as having “enough” time.

Feeling confident that you are able to accomplish everything you want to do is the definition of being “time affluent.” I learned that even with the 90 minutes of free time I had a day, I could make my days feel less overwhelming and more fulfilling.

Here are three ways to feel more “time affluent,” without adding more free time to your schedule:

1. Get moving.

Physical activity has been proven as an effective means to increase health, happiness and self-esteem.

Try 30 minutes of exercise per day for a few days this week. It’s important to block out time in your calendar for this. The activities don’t have to be strenuous; just taking a slow jog outside or walking to work — instead of driving — is enough.

After your session, write in a journal about how you’re feeling (most likely, you’ll feel great). So the next time you think you don’t have enough time to work out, you’ll remember how you felt, and that the time will be worth it.

2. Practice acts of kindness.

In one of my studies, I found that giving time to other people can make you feel like you have more discretionary time.

Sometime this week, perform two random acts of kindness — one for a friend or acquaintance, and another for a stranger. It’s up to you what you do, but here are some ideas:

  • Pay for a stranger’s order at a coffee shop.
  • Give someone a compliment.
  • Help a coworker complete a task.
  • Bring a family member a tasty treat or beverage.
  • Leave a friend flowers or a nice note.

Whatever it is, do it with the sole purpose of benefiting the other person. Don’t think about or anticipate receiving anything in return for your kindness.

3. Experience awe

The ocean has always had a powerful effect on me. It inspires and fills me with a sense of awe. Finding ways to achieve this feeling can expand your perception of time.

In one study, researchers showed that compared to reflecting on a happy event, reimagining an awe-inspiring event made people feel less hurried. It also made them behave as though they had more time — making them more willing to volunteer their time for a charity.

Try to fit one of these experiences into your week:

  • Social interactions: Whether through physical intimacy, eye-opening conversation, or cradling a newborn, our interpersonal relationships extend us beyond ourselves.
  • Being in nature: Take a stroll your neighborhood park. Look up at the moon. Catch the golden-pink glow of dawn or dusk, and you’ll feel less rushed.
  • Absorbing art: I vividly remember as college student being awestruck by Vincent van Gogh’s “Starry Night.” At first, I was anxious to take notes for my essay. But standing there, peering at the artist’s swirling vision, I was enraptured and moved beyond concern about time.
  • Witnessing accomplishment: Tremendous inspiration can be found in individual achievement. Watching a skillfully executed athletic feat, for example, can open our eyes to the magnificent possibilities of humanity.

During moments of awe, absolutely nothing feels limiting — certainly not the minutiae of the day’s schedule.

Cassie Holmes is a psychologist and professor at UCLA’s Anderson School of Management. Her work on the intersection of time and happiness has been featured in such outlets as NPR, The Economist, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and The Atlantic. She is also the author of “Happier Hour: How to Beat Distraction, Expand Your Time, and Focus on What Matters Most.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/08/too-much-free-time-wont-make-you-happier-says-psychologist-how-many-hours-you-really-need-in-a-day.html

Topley’s Top 10 – September 8, 2022

1. Behind the Markets Podcast with Wharton Finance Professor Jeremy Siegel and co-host Jeremy Schwartz –  Featuring Matthew Topley

Wharton Finance Professor and author of Stocks for the Long Run, Jeremy Siegel and co-host Jeremy Schwartz, Global Chief Investment Officer at WisdomTree, discuss the how and why of market performance with leading economists and market strategists so you know what’s ahead for the economy and your portfolio.

I am honored to be featured on the show! Thank you Jeremy Schwartz and Jeremy Siegal! And thank you all for listening!

Please reach out with any questions or to discuss any of the topics in more detail.

2. Institutional Traders Net Speculative Put Hedging Last Week was 3x More Than 2008

@sentimentrader

Sometimes, there’s a chart that just blows your hair back. In 22 years of doing this, none stand out like this one. Last week, institutional traders bought $8.1 billion worth of put options. They bought less than $1 billion in calls. This is 3x more extreme than 2008.

https://twitter.com/sentimentrader

3. International Equity Panic?….Net Outflows from International Stocks 20 Weeks in a Row

From Dave Lutz Jones Trading “Everybody is slowing down, but the U.S., because of the continuing strength of the jobs market, still seems to be slowing more slowly” – Investors have added money to U.S. equity-focused stock and mutual funds for four of the past six weeks, according to Refinitiv Lipper data, while yanking money from international stock funds for 20 consecutive weeks. That’s the longest streak since a 22-week run of outflows that ended in October 2019, WSJ reports.

4. European Central Bank Well Behind U.S….Rates Barely Positive and Inflation 9.1%

Inflation in the Eurozone jumped to 9.1% in August, a new record in the Eurozone data going back to 1997, according to preliminary data released today by Eurostat. It topped out at 25.2% in Estonia. Germany hit at a record 8.8%.

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/08/31/runaway-inflation-in-the-eurozone-which-kicked-off-in-mid-2021-sets-new-record-wakes-up-even-ridiculously-reckless-ecb/

5. $11B Invested in Solar and Wind for 2022….Passing Oil for First Time Ever.

WSJBy Miriam Gottfried

https://www.wsj.com/articles/blackstone-carlyle-take-different-sides-on-oil-and-gas-investment-11662024781?mod=itp_wsj&ru=yahoo

6. Spread in One-Year Performance Between Small Cap Growth and Large Cap Value Hits Internet Bubble Levels

Bespoke Investment Group

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/historic-small-cap-volatility

7. Retail Trading Volume Drops to Pre-Covid Levels

Zerohedge-A better indicator of retail capitulation comes from Vanda’s tracker of total retail investors’ traded value in US securities, which has dropped to pre-Covid levels, or around $11BN per day…

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-traders-throw-towel

8. 77% of Single Family Home Renter Renewed Rental Leases…Record Amount.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/johnburns7/

9. U.S. Labor Day holiday air passengers exceed 2019 levels – TSA

By David Shepardson

WASHINGTON, Sept 6 (Reuters) – U.S. officials screened 8.76 million air travelers over the four-day Labor Day weekend, marking the first time holiday weekend screening volume has exceeded 2019 pre-pandemic levels.

The U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) said Tuesday the four-day period topped the 8.24 million passengers screened over the Labor Day weekend in 2019, which traditionally marks the end of the busy U.S. summer travel season.

A space launch in Florida that could have impacted air travel over the weekend was scrubbed. On Monday, U.S. airlines canceled 108 flights and delayed 4,075, according to FlightAware.

Overall, U.S. summer travel did not meet early expectations as U.S. airlines trimmed summer capacity by 16% and adjusted staffing models to account for the time it takes to hire and train new employees.

On Thursday, the Transportation Department (USDOT) said the largest U.S. airlines had made “significant changes” to customer service plans with nearly all agreeing to offer passengers meals and overnight stays for delays within their control after a rough summer for travel, during which hundreds of thousands of flights were canceled or delayed.

Reuters reported that many of the changes to the customer service plans came after Secretary Pete Buttigieg told airlines Aug. 19 that he would publish a “dashboard” comparing customer protections airlines that were offering ahead of the busy U.S. Labor Day travel weekend.

Buttigieg said in the first six months, roughly 24% of U.S. airlines domestic flights were delayed and 3.2% were canceled.

“Americans have experienced an unacceptable level of flight — of flight delays and cancellations this year due to airline issues,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Thursday.

Airlines argue that the commitments largely reflect what they were doing even if it was not in writing. The White House says the written commitments made the promises enforceable by the Department of Transportation.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-labor-day-holiday-air-passengers-topped-2019-levels-tsa-2022-09-06/

10. Farnam Street Small Thoughts

he funny thing about teenagers is that very often the best of them, the most interesting and curious, are rather lousy high school students. They have other things on their minds than geeking out every single point on the AP U.S. history exam. They are very often readers, and preparation for elite-college admission does not allow one to be a reader; it’s far too time consuming. These “lousy” students were often among my favorites, and I never feared that they were going to lose a chance at a great education because they didn’t have the stuff of an “elite” admission. They themselves were smart. They didn’t need some Ferrari of a college nudging them along the path to a great education; they were going to get one wherever they went.”

— Caitlin Flanagan

“The problem isn’t that you’re too busy. You are too busy, but that’s not the problem. If you view being busy as the problem, there is no solution. You will always be too busy, and that will never change. As Andy Grove once noted: “A manager’s work is never done. There is always more to be done, more that should be done, always more than can be done.” The problem is that you’re acting like a firefighter instead of a fire marshal.”

— Ed Batista

https://fs.blog

Topley’s Top 10 – September 7, 2022

1. The Financial Advisor Success Podcast by Michael Kitces – Featuring Matthew Topley

Michael Kitces is a leader in the finance industry with over 200,000 unique visitors to his blog every month! His podcast, The Financial Advisor Success Podcast, is one of the most popular in the market.

On his show he interviews leading advisors and industry consultants, discusses practice management tips, and gives a behind-the-scenes look at how the best advisory firms are built and run.

I am honored to be featured on the show that I have been listening to for many years. Thank you Michael Kitces! And thank you all for listening!

Please reach out with any questions or to discuss any of the topics in more detail.

2. 60/40 Worst Start to Year Ever

Wisdom Tree Andrew Okrongly This year has offered no shortage of headaches, but the most acute source of pain for most traditional portfolios has been the positive correlation between falling stock and bond prices.

There is historical precedent for balanced 60/40 portfolios experiencing negative calendar year returns. What makes 2022 so uniquely challenging? So far, it is the first time in recent history when both stocks and bonds have had steep, simultaneous declines.

Calendar Year Returns of a Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Managing Portfolio Volatility as Correlations Rise | WisdomTree

3. Follow Up to Yesterday’s Volatility Comments….Number of “Extreme” Days Classified as Gain or Loss of 1%

Dorsey Wright-Another measure of volatility we use at Dorsey Wright is the number of extreme daily moves in the S&P 500 Index, which is classified by a gain or loss of at least 1% in value. This can help compare how the extreme movement seen this year relates to historical market environments. 79 days so far this year have seen a gain or loss exceeding 1% in value, equating to 48% of the trading days (through 8/29). Using historical data back to April 1987, only two other years have seen a higher percentage of volatile trading days: 2008 at 53% and 2002 at 50%. Other high years to note include 2009 at 46% and 2020 at 44%. Of the 79 days, 39 have seen SPX gain 1% while 40 have been 1% down days. While we have seen almost the same number of extreme up and down days so far this year, the down days have certainly felt more frequent as the losses have been sharper.

https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright

4. September Poor Monthly Return History

Reminder historically, on average, September has been the worst month of the year for the S&P500 (returns were -0.5% on average, and positive only 47% of the time).

5. Facebook..Another Household Tech Name Giving Back 5 Years of Gains.

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/META:NASDAQ?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjV5eewzYD6AhXok4kEHT6PACUQ3ecFegQIGBAg&window=5Y

6. XRT Retail Sector ETF…Inflation and Consumer

XRT Re-testing 200 week moving average…50 day sloping downward….-40% from highs

www.stockcharts.com

7. Short Credit/Bonds ETFs

TBF short 20-year treasury ETF….breaks out to new highs …50day thru 200day to upside bullish.

Short High Yield ETF never got close to Covid highs

www.stockcharts.com

8. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve Lowest Level in 38 Years

www.chartr.com

9. Philadelphia Stopped Arresting Shoplifters…..$5.6B loss to small business owners in Pa. last year.

Phila Inquirer by Craig R. McCoy and Dylan Purcell

Late last year, a retail trade group sought to put a price tag on retail theft across the United States. Its report found that Pennsylvania trailed only California in the dollar amount of thievery. It also determined that as a share of all sales, Pennsylvania’s annual $5.6 billion loss last year was the highest in the nation.

https://www.inquirer.com/news/philadelphia-shoplifting-rising-retail-20220901.html

10. Contrarian Edge – Vitaliy Katsenelson Grew Up in Russia

Putin: The Mask is Off. Europe is Next.- Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA

Readers have asked me for my updated thoughts on the war in Ukraine. Here are my somewhat unstructured but definitely very gloomy thoughts. I promise next week’s email will be about a much brighter subject.

I wrote a four-part series on the war in Ukraine. If you missed it, you can read it here.

This war is not about Ukraine

When Putin started the war, he tried to shift the blame to NATO, calling it the instigator. He argued that Russia had no choice but to defensively launch the war to prevent NATO from surrounding Russia from all sides. Reality, of course, was very different. NATO was a sclerotic, toothless, mission-less defense (not offense) alliance in retirement, collecting its “peace dividend” from the breakup of the Soviet Union. Most of its European members maintained their defense spending below NATO charter rules.

Yes, the US, arguably NATO’s most important member, was increasing its defense spending. But Russia was an afterthought in the rationale for this increased spending. Our single focus was on China. Of course, ironically, this offended the sensitive Russian ego. Russians felt that nobody feared and respected them anymore.

Another excuse Putin used to sell the war to Russians was that the mighty Russian army was purifying Ukraine from Nazis and drug addicts. This was a lie. Ukraine has about as many Nazis as any other country in Europe, no more and no less. I wrote a lengthy essay on this topic. And if Putin was really worried about drug addicts, Russia should have invaded San Francisco instead.

A few days ago, Putin finally lifted his veil of pretense. He compared himself to Peter the Great and the war in Ukraine to Russia’s 21-year war with Sweden. He said (I am paraphrasing) that Peter had returned land to and fortified Mother Russia, and he added that now it was his time to do the same. Putin openly wants to be Vlad the Great, and Russia looks at Europe as its oyster.

Most (not all) Russians outsource their thinking to a few TV channels controlled by the government, where they are told what to think by a few propagandists. You may see a parallel between this and some Americans and their favorite TV networks. Take this American image and multiply it by a thousand and you’ll get the level of brainwashing of an average Russian. The message on Russian TV is carefully curated by the Kremlin, and you can, for instance, go to jail for calling this war a war.

Russian propagandists packaged Putin’s empire-building message so that it seemed not to have come from a shirtless KGB thug but to have come down from Mount Sinai. Suddenly, Russians started looking at themselves as the descendants of Genghis Khan, destined to expand Russia’s borders to the old extents of the Tatar-Mongol Empire (basically encompassing all of Europe). The propagandists even started quoting Peter the Great: “We’ll take from Europe everything we need and then turn our bare ass to it,” And they openly used the threat of nuclear weapons, accompanying their threats with, “It is not our fault that you [Europe] are weak and we are strong.”

What in the past was an educated surmise has now become as clear as rain: If not stopped in Ukraine, Putin’s Russia will continue its excursion into the rest of the ex-Soviet republics – defenseless Moldova, Belarus (which is already a Russian vassal state), Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and others are next.

After Putin is done Frankensteining the Soviet Union back together with countries that are not part of NATO, he may move on to Baltic countries that are NATO members. I know, that is unimaginable. But so was the invasion of Ukraine and a shirtless thug openly discussing his plans to return land to and fortify Stepmother Russia by invading other countries and carelessly threatening the use of nuclear weapons.

This war is not about Eastern Ukraine or even Ukraine. It is about stopping Hitler in 1939 after he had already invaded Poland but before he marched on the rest of Europe.

As Gary Kasparov says, Russia under Putin has turned into a mob state. Mobsters respect strength and feast on weakness. I truly hope that as we start feeling the effects of the war on our wallets and war coverage gradually slips from primetime news to once a week updates, our resolve in supporting Ukraine doesn’t wane. Let’s be honest; Ukrainians are losing their lives on our behalf. If we don’t support them with weapons now, it will be our soldiers fighting the Russian Army in Estonia or Poland in a few years on behalf of NATO.

Ukrainians are fighting for their freedom

It is easy for some people to just look at a map, redraw a couple lines, and say that what used to belong to Ukraine now goes to Russia. That is what French President Macron told President Zelensky: that the West needs to let Putin be spared humiliation and that Ukraine should consider ceding some territory to Russia. This makes my blood boil; it is like asking a rape victim to leave a good review for their rapist on Yelp. Putin completely controls what the Russian people see and what they think. He can create his version of reality, divorced from facts and truth. He does so daily.

Ukrainians are not just fighting for their land; they are fighting for their freedom.

Thanks to Putin’s propaganda machine, the majority of Russians believe that Ukraine is on the brink of becoming Nazi Germany. I was talking to my brainwashed middle school Russian classmate, and he was telling me, “Did you see the swastikas tattooed on the Azov fighters who surrendered [after holding out for two months] in Mariupol?” I had not. He continued, “When they surrendered, some of them were shirtless, and you could clearly see that they were Nazis.”

I told him that he and his countrymen should look in the mirror.

I’m as reviled by Nazi symbols and beliefs as much as any Jew that had relatives murdered in the Holocaust, but being a Nazi is a lot more than just having a swastika tattooed on your body. It is about what you do and how you act. I paraphrased Forrest Gump: “A Nazi is what a Nazi does”. These Azov fighters, depite a tiny minority in their ranks that actually have swastika tattoos, were fighting for the independence of their country against a foe that proclaims it hates Nazis but is in fact a modern Nazi regime.

(I realize that this topic contains an incredible amount of complexity and nuance; to understand it, please read my essay on Nazis in Ukraine).

When we see the Nazi symbol we immediately stop thinking. Our emotions overwhelm us, and with good reason. But let’s think about it calmly – what is Nazism today?

It is the most recent, extreme version of nationalism, where one race or country believes it is superior to others and is willing to do any amount of killing to enforce its dominance.

It pains me to say this, but Russia today is sick with its own sort of Nazism. Just as Nazis believed they were the superior race, Russia believes it is superior to Ukraine and other nations. Russia wants to delete the Ukrainian identity, as though the country has no right to exist.

Don’t believe me?

This article (you can use Google Translate to read it) is the Russian version of Mein Kampf. It was published by the Russian Information Agency, a state-owned domestic news agency – an information arm of the Kremlin.

Ukraine, as history has shown, is impossible as a nation state, and attempts to “build” one naturally lead to Nazism. Ukrainism is an artificial anti-Russian construction that does not have its own civilizational content, a subordinate element of an alien and alien civilization.… Further denazification of this mass of the population consists in re-education, which is achieved by ideological repression (suppression) of Nazi attitudes and strict censorship: not only in the political sphere, but also necessarily in the sphere of culture and education.

Denazification will inevitably also be a de-Ukrainization – a rejection of the large-scale artificial inflation of the ethnic component of self-identification of the population of the territories of historical Little Russia and New Russia, begun by the Soviet authorities.

As Russia captures Ukrainian cities, it immediately starts “de-nazifying” and “Russifying” them. It prevents people from traveling elsewhere in Ukraine and allows them to travel only to Russia (think: the Wall in East/West Germany). It switches the functional currency to the ruble. It starts rewriting history by canceling the Ukrainian curriculum in schools. It wants Ukrainians to forget their culture and their language. Just like a rapist asking his victim to love him, Putin wants to force Ukrainians to fall in love with their new Russian nation.

Ukrainians are not just fighting for their land. They are fighting for the right to speak their own language, for their culture, for freedom of thought, for the right to be part of the West and maintain its liberal values.

My advice to Mr. Macron: If you want to save Putin from humiliation, I have heard that Burgundy is nice in August. Though Russians prefer potato vodka to French wine, they’ll adapt, and you can benefit from learning to say “I surrender” in Russian.

On a cheerier note, Ukrainians have chosen the design for a new stamp. It is called “Good evening, we are from Ukraine.”

https://contrarianedge.com/

Topley’s Top 10 – September 6, 2022

1. 2022 A Very Volatile Year

@Charlie Bilello A Volatile Year

The only years with higher volatility in stocks at this point than 2022 (169 trading days): -1930s (Great Depression, World War II) -2002 (Dot-Com Crash)-2009 (Global Financial Crisis)-2020 (Covid Crash)

2. Bull Cycles Longer…Bear Cycles Short and Sharp

From Callum Thomas Bull vs Bear Across the Ages: This is a pretty interesting chart just in terms of filling out the historical context. Albeit it is hard to draw (m)any meaningful conclusions, but as a starter: a. bears are mostly short and sharp (but note exceptions); b. bull cycles generally been longer since the 80’s (vs very cyclical/rangy in 60’s/70’s); c. the bigger/longer the rise =/= any hard/fast rules about what happens next e.g. 1930’s vs late-50’s vs early-00’s vs (now?); d. most of the time the market is going up/bull; e. (but) there is ample scope/opportunity/value in market timing (or at least asset allocation and diversification); and f. it’s always different (even if it’s similar).

Source: @Mayhem4Markets From Callum Thomas Weekly Chart Storm https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-4-september

3. Old Tech Favorite INTC Breaks Below 5 Year Price

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/INTC:NASDAQ?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj3w_yq-P35AhUlKVkFHadDBBsQ3ecFegQIGBAi&window=5Y

4. The U.S. Labor Shortage is Not Going Away….Retirees Up and Immigration Down

Barrons-The Labor Shortage Will Get Worse and May Last for Decades Megan CassellaFollow

https://www.barrons.com/articles/labor-market-jobs-shortage-economy-51662147179?mod=past_editions

5. Above Will Make It Really Hard to Get Labor Costs Down but Other Inflation News Improving

 

JP Morgan https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/gl/en/home

6. Inflation …Aluminum and Copper Corrections…China Slowdown and U.S. Housing Slowdown

Aluminum -50% from Highs

Copper -30% from Highs

www.stockcharts.com

7. One Commodity Staying High…Coffee After Doubling Off 2021 Levels

8. 12,000 Robots Ordered in 2022..Labor Shortage=More Robots?

ROBO ETF -35% from highs

 

www.stockcharts.com

Also approaching 5 year lows

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ROBO:ASX?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjopKG5-f35AhVDkokEHZaoBvMQ3ecFegQIBRAg

9. Highest and Lowest Inflation Countries

Top 10 Countries with the Highest Inflation Rates (Trading Economics Jan 2022)

  1. Venezuela — 1198.0%
  2. Sudan — 340.0%
  3. Lebanon — 201.0%
  4. Syria — 139.0%
  5. Suriname — 63.3%
  6. Zimbabwe — 60.7%
  7. Argentina — 51.2%
  8. Turkey — 36.1%
  9. Iran — 35.2%
  10. Ethiopia — 33.0%

Top 10 Countries with the Lowest Inflation Rates (Trading Economics Jan 2022)

  1. Rwanda — -2.0%
  2. Chad — -0.5%
  3. Maldives — -0.2%
  4. Gabon — 0.6% (tie)
  5. Japan — 0.6% (tie)
  6. Bahrain — 0.7%
  7. Fiji — 0.8%
  8. Vanuatu — 0.9% (tie)
  9. Bolivia — 0.9% (tie)
  10. Saudi Arabia — 1.1%

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/inflation-rate-by-country

10. Health Is the Secret to Happiness-

Psychology Today Thomas Rutledge Ph.D.

Your body, not your bank account, is the best source of emotional well-being.

KEY POINTS

  • Despite centuries of wisdom about happiness, happiness remains elusive in modernity.
  • Although many factors influence our happiness, arguably the most robust and persistent influence is our own physical health.
  • Physical health regulates how we feel, controls what we can do, and relies on identical biology responsible for our mental health.

In the long history of humanity, no goal has been more consistently imagined, discussed, and pursued than happiness. In fact, our persistent focus as a species on happiness—across centuries, continents, and circumstances—is possibly matched only by the diversity of means through which we’ve sought to obtain it. From Greek philosophers such as Aristotle, religious texts such as the Quran and the Bible, to modern happiness science and self-help books, happiness is a goal we never stop chasing and a feeling we never stop craving.

Although we have traditionally pursued happiness through relationships and religion, status and substance use, money and material goods, arguably the most enduring and powerful contributor to our happiness is the quality of our physical health. The profound influence of health on our capacity for happiness is readily demonstrated in two ways: First, our state of health strongly affects how we feel. Energy, vitality, motivation, and resilience are just some of the many dimensions we characteristically describe as emotions that are often instead a manifestation of our physical health. While few would dispute that it is possible to experience happiness despite the malaise of medical illness, none can deny that it is more difficult.

Second, the quality of our physical health determines the boundaries of what we can do. Even under the best of circumstances, the feeling of happiness can be as capricious as the weather or stock market. Constrain our already fickle capacity for happiness even further with disease and disability that rob our ability to move in and modify the world around us, engage with and experience the people and preoccupations we care about, and happiness becomes as ephemeral as a rainbow.

Given the intimate connection between physical and mental health, coupled with research indicating that just 2.7% of American adults are now physically healthy—based on standards of not smoking, obtaining regular exercise, consuming a nutritious diet, and maintaining a recommended body-fat level based on DEXA scans (dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry; 1)—perhaps it is no wonder that happiness levels in the U.S. have been declining since the 1990s (2).

How health becomes happiness or its opposite
Source: Thomas Rutledge

Evolving metabolic research and behavioral neuroscience offer even more precise insights into how our physical health directly and indirectly regulates our emotional well-being. As summarized in the figure above, our lifestyle habits and underlying biology form a symbiotic relationship that is the foundation of both our physical and mental health. Like two sides of the same coin, behaviors and physiological processes operate as inseparable components of a recurring cycle across our lifespan.

At any moment, our feelings and functional abilities are the product of a complex interaction of processes occurring from the level of our genes and epigenome, the capability of our organs, and the status of our hormones and neurotransmitters. Even while our emotions and behaviors are consequences of these processes, however, they are simultaneously causes in either a vicious or virtuous health cycle. The quality of your sleep last night modified the status of hundreds of genes, the nutrition provided by your diet today offers either an abundance of or a deficiency in the ingredients necessary for your body to create and convert neurotransmitters and hormones, and the frequency and intensity of your physical activity across the day modifies the function of dozens of hormones and even alters the state of your gut microbiome (3).

Informed by modern research, it becomes impossible to see our daily lifestyle choices as inconsequential. They are in fact powerful levers and control switches determining our capacity for health and happiness.

More than ever, we know that happiness is an inside game. As science empowers us with increasing insights into the human body, the connection between mind, body, and spirit recognized by philosophers centuries ago is explainable as an interaction between our behaviors and biology. This research offers more than an explanation for this phenomenon, however. It also reveals the remarkable power our health habits have to improve our potential for happiness.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-healthy-journey/202209/health-is-the-secret-happiness

Topley’s Top 10 – September 1, 2022

1.Bonds See Some Record Outflows this Summer

Loan ETFs Suffer Record Outflows in June

Investors pulled more money than ever before from US-listed ETFs investing in bank loans in June.

With recessionary fears growing and traders seeking the highest quality debt, exchange-traded funds holding loans posted outflows of $2.3 billion in the month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That means the cohort has now erased all inflows for the year. At the same time, broad corporate bond ETFs also posted record exits in June with $8.1 billion withdrawn.

Elsewhere, aggregate debt funds saw the weakest inflows since Covid hit in 2020 as just $90 million was added. Cash-like, ultra-short duration products attracted $6.9 billion in an 18th straight month of inflows.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/etf-fund-flows/?srnd=fixed-income&sref=GGda9y2L


2. Follow Up from Yesterday’s Chart on Shipping Rates….LA Ports Clear for Xmas…8 Ships in Queue

Brendan Murray  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-30/flood-of-los-angeles-bound-container-ships-slows-to-a-trickle?utm_content=markets&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-markets&sref=GGda9y2L


3. Gold Miners Making New Lows Despite War, Inflation Above 6%, and Stock Bear Market

GDXJ Junior Miners New Low

GDX Large Cap Miners New Lows

www.stockcharts.com


4. Inflation Adjusted CapEx for Energy Stocks at Lows….

From Kailash Concepts

https://kailashconcepts.com

https://kailashconcepts.com/nabors-investor-relations-has-a-terrific-story-to-tell/


5. Short Interest in Stocks Remains Low….Hedge Funds Using Futures?

From Callum Thomas Weekly Chart Storm…Short Interest Short of Interest:  Did short selling die in 2020?

(or is it just resting, like in 2000?)

Source:  @MikeZaccardi

https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-28-august


6. Strongest Earnings Sector 2022 by Far is Energy…

Earlier this week we showed Energy sector had highest dividends

LPL Research https://lplresearch.com/2022/08/25/5-reasons-to-consider-buying-energy/


7. China Still by Far Largest Manufacturer in the World and They are Moving up the Value Chain.

Capital Group

China has moved up the manufacturing value chain

Source: Capital Group, based on reports from Euromonitor, SNE Research and company filings. Data as of May 2021 and reflect approximate figures.

https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/supply-chains-reglobalization.html?sfid=1988901890&cid=80814316&et_cid=80814316&cgsrc=SFMC&alias=D-btn-LP-6-A1cta-Advisor


8. 30 Year Mortgage 5.5%

Today’s mortgage and refinance rates:

Molly Grace and Laura Grace Tarpley, CEPF 

Mortgage rates spiked last week and remain elevated this week.

Average 30-year mortgage rates had been relatively low for most of August, even dipping below 5% a few times. But as the Federal Reserve gears up for another large hike to the federal funds rate next month, rates have trended up.

https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/best-mortgage-refinance-rates-today-tuesday-august-30-2022-8


9. Housing Sentiment Falls to Lowest Level Since 2011

@GrahamStephan

https://twitter.com/GrahamStephan


10. To Flourish, Humans Are Motivated by Four Universal Needs

Psychology Today. Are you satisfying these needs at work? Could you?  Michael W. Wiederman 

KEY POINTS

  • Psychology research has revealed four universal human needs related to flourishing and living one’s best life.
  • Although these needs are not necessary for survival, they are necessary for job satisfaction.
  • Whether for yourself or those you lead, the set of universal human needs is a useful checklist for evaluating the likelihood of job satisfaction.

One area of psychological research focuses on people’s needs, which lead to motivations. Results indicate that there are universal needs that transcend cultures and history, motivating humans in general to do what it takes to satisfy them. Primary on the list are survival needs, such as food, water, shelter, and safety. Once these needs are met, however, what does it take for people to flourish, feeling most engaged and that they are living their best life?

The Big 4 Universal Needs Related to Flourishing

Different writers may use varied terminology to describe what has become known as the “Big 4” universal human needs or motivations. I’ve taken the liberty of using pairs of terms that each start with the letter C, with hopes that doing so makes them more memorable. (There is no particular order of importance on this list.)

·  The first we might refer to as Contribution or Calling. That is, we need to feel as though our life has meaning or purpose. That isn’t to say that it has to be a grandiose sense of importance, but rather that what we do means something to others or to the world generally; that what we do is productive and purposeful.

·  The second universal need we might call Choice or Control. Generally we prefer more rather than less choice and more control over what we do and how we do it. In fact, humans tend to actively resist encroachment on their autonomy.

·  The third universal need could be termed Competence or Capability. That is, it is important to feel as though we do a pretty good job at what is important to us, and perhaps at least as important is the perception that we are improving or have opportunities to grow more effective.

·  Last on our list is Connection or Community. It’s not that we need to be liked by everyone, but it is important to have a set of people who like and respect us; a group we consider our tribe.

These Big 4 universal needs or motivations apply to all of us, but there is probably variation in their relative importance to each person. If I asked you to rank order the four from most to least important, your rankings would probably not perfectly match mine.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/mindful-professional-development/202208/flourish-humans-are-motivated-four-universal-needs?collection=1179099

Topley’s Top 10 – August 31, 2022

1. Shipping Rates Collapse Back to Summer 2020 Levels 

Dave Lutz at Jones Trading-Sharp declines in container shipping rates are a reflection of easing supply-chain woes – Baltic Exchange Dry Index continues to collapse and is now back to summer 2020 levels


2. Lumber Prices Back to Summer 2020

Lumber Futures $1700 to $476

www.stockcharts.com


3. 200 Day Correlation Between Stocks and Bonds .87….Last Time This High was 2009

Bespoke Investment Group-High Correlation Between Stocks and Bonds So far in 2022, stocks and bonds have both sold off, leading investors with a balanced portfolio to experience historically painful drawdowns. Rates have risen, and partially because of this fact, equities have had a tough year. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is down 16.0% on a YTD basis, while the iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) has shed 11.3% of its value. Typically, rates fall alongside equities, as investors shift their capital allocations to safer assets. 2022 has been different, though, and has seen selling in both bonds and equities.  This has resulted in a historic level of positive correlation between the ETFs SPY and AGG going back to 2004 when AGG first started trading
Although the 200-day correlation between stocks (SPY) and bonds (AGG) has been higher once before (in late 2009), the current level remains particularly elevated. The current 200-day correlation sits at 0.87, which signifies a strong positive relationship. In the last 200 days, stocks have moved in the opposite direction of rates on most days, as the market is incredibly focused on the bond market as the Fed transitions from an accommodative to a restrictive stance in the face of higher inflation. Interestingly, the correlation coefficient does appear to be rolling over, moving lower in each of the last 15 trading sessions. Historically speaking, the correlation coefficient has tended to turn negative not long after rolling over, as illustrated by the chart below.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/high-correlation-between-stocks-and-bonds


4.China Seeing New Covid Cases..

Dave Lutz Not Helping Commodities – China is battling Covid in every province despite strict measures to control the virus. All 31 mainland provinces recorded at least one local case over the past 10 days, the broadest exposure to the virus since at least February 2021


5. S&P Seeing Longest Stretch Below 200 Day Moving Average Since 2008

Michael Batnick Irrelevant Investor Blog-In fact, the S&P 500 has been below its 200 day for 99 days, the longest stretch since the GFC.

Source Y Charts

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/spx_days_below_200dma.jpeg


6. Leveraged Loan Market Possibly Most Effected by Consistent Rising Rates but very few Maturing in 2022-2023

Marketwatch- only 9% of outstanding LL loans will come due between now and the end of next year. By 

Joseph Adinolfi

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/morgan-stanley-warns-this-corner-of-the-credit-market-could-be-first-to-implode-as-interest-rates-rise-11661878786?mod=home-page


7. U.S. Cropland Values Hit Record Highs

From Barry Ritholtz The Big Picture

Source: AgWeb

https://ritholtz.com/2022/08/u-s-cropland-values/


8. Axios-The space race for our cellphone

Young satellite companies say they’re on the precipice of blanketing the planet with cellphone service. 

Why it matters:If they succeed, their technology could eliminate dead zones and provide more reliable coverage to millions of people.

Driving the news:SpaceX CEO Elon Musk and T-Mobile CEO Mike Sievert late last week announced plans to start delivering service through SpaceX’s Starlink by the end of next year in the United States. 

  • Only text and certain messaging capabilities will be available in the beginning, with the goal of adding voice and data down the line.
  • “We’ve all read about someone who was hiking, got lost, or died of thirst or exposure,” Musk said during the announcement event, adding that this service will help in those types of situations. 

How it works:New satellites equipped with larger and more powerful antennas will pick up signals from cellphones directly, rather than relying on cell towers.

  • Sievert described the vision as putting cell towers in the sky, but “a lot harder.”
  • The partnership would effectively enable cellphones to do what satellite phones can do, Jon Peha, former FCC chief technologist and professor of engineering and public policy at Carnegie Mellon University, tells Axios.
  • “They’re no longer separate devices. It’s one device that does both,” he said.

State of play:AST SpaceMobile and Lynk are other major competitors working to make cell coverage direct from space a reality.

  • Project Kuiper, from Amazon, is working with Verizon on an effort to provide rural communities with wireless coverage via thousands of satellites.
  • Rumors are also swirling that Apple might be set to announce its own direct-to-satellite iPhone partnership with Globalstar next week.

What they’re saying:“The human race is becoming less and less tolerant of being disconnected,” AT&T CEO John Stankey told Axios in an interview. “There’s a market out there to keep people connected all the time.”

  • Stankey declined to share details about any plans from AT&T, but added, “I think we’ll see the market develop where there’s a variety of different alternatives and solutions.”

The ultimate goalis to offer high-speed mobile internet access via satellite.

  • “No one company or even a number of these companies [will] be able to meet all the needs,” Peha said.

The intrigue:With SpaceX dominating the rocket launch industry right now, “co-opetition” could drive success for all players.

  • “We’re glad that they [SpaceX and T-Mobile] have shown attention to this, but we always thought this was going to be a multiple party market,” AST chief strategy officer Scott Wisniewski tells Axios. “This is not a winner take all market given how big it is.”

What’s next:SpaceX and T-Mobile will need regulatory approval from the Federal Communications Commission for their plans.

Editor’s note: This article has been corrected to reflect that Musk is CEO of SpaceX, not a co-founder.

https://www.axios.com/2022/08/30/satellite-cell-phone-elon-musk-space


9. $1B in Crypto Lost to Fraud Since 2021…Congress Cracking Down

Coinbase, FTX, Binance get inquiries as Congress looks to crack down on $1 billion

crypto fraud

MacKenzie Sigalos@KENZIESIGALOS

KEY POINTS

·         The House Committee on Oversight and Reform is dialing up the pressure on federal agencies and crypto exchanges to protect Americans from fraudsters.

·         In a series of letters sent Tuesday morning, the committee asked four agencies, as well as five digital asset exchanges — Coinbase, FTX, Binance.US, Kraken, and KuCoin — for information and documents about what they are doing to safeguard consumers against scams and combat cryptocurrency-related fraud.

In its first foray into the crypto sector, the House Committee on Oversight and Reform is dialing up the pressure on federal agencies and crypto exchanges to protect Americans from fraudsters.

In a series of letters sent Tuesday morning, the committee asked four agencies, including the Department of the Treasury, the Federal Trade Commission, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the Securities and Exchange Commission, as well as five digital asset exchanges — Coinbase, FTX, Binance.US, Kraken, and KuCoin — for information and documents about what they are doing, if anything, to safeguard consumers against scams and combat cryptocurrency-related fraud.

More than $1 billion in crypto has been lost to fraud since the start of 2021, according to research from the FTC.

“As stories of skyrocketing prices and overnight riches have attracted both professional and amateur investors to cryptocurrencies, scammers have cashed in,” wrote Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, D.-Ill., Chair of the Subcommittee on Economic and Consumer Policy. “The lack of a central authority to flag suspicious transactions in many situations, the irreversibility of transactions, and the limited understanding many consumers and investors have of the underlying technology make cryptocurrency a preferred transaction method for scammers.”

The letters ask that the federal agencies and crypto exchanges respond by Sept. 12 with information about what they are doing to protect consumers. The committee says that these responses could be used to craft legislative solutions.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/30/coinbase-ftx-binance-get-inquiries-from-congress-on-crypto-scams.html


10. Discipline is Destiny-Ryan Holiday

It’s next to impossible to know what kind of adversity or what sort of good luck will fall in someone’s lap.

Will they be able to handle it, whatever it is? Will they rise to the occasion or be corrupted or destroyed by it?

As it happens, this part is easy to predict.

Look at Marcus Aurelius. He was gifted all sorts of incredible things—power, money, great teachers. How did he manage to remain good when so many others, from Nero to Tiberius, had been broken by those exact same gifts? The same way that he managed to not be broken by the incredible adversity of the Antonine Plague. It was his discipline—his temperance, moderation, self-awareness, balance, and self-mastery.

When we say that, “discipline is destiny,” this is what we mean—that discipline is both predictive and deterministic. It predetermined that Marcus would not only be a great emperor, but a great man too. Just as it assured that the final chapters for the cautionary tales of history—Napoleon, Alexander the Great, Julius Caesar, King George IV, and sadly even Marcus’s own undisciplined son, Commodus—would be marked by self-inflicted destruction.

So it goes for all of us. If you want to know why things are the way they are in your life right now…look to your level of discipline. It got you here, for better or worse. If you want to know how things are going to go for you in the future…your discipline will take you there.

It’s not merely that disciplined people do well and undisciplined people fail—we know life is more complicated than that. The maxim means that traits of discipline predict the kind of actions we will see.

The undisciplined person may succeed…but it will be an unstable, chaotic success. The unrestrained will end up unraveling the institutions around them. The lazy will end up missing some critical piece of information that costs them. The overly passionate will take it too far and pay for it. The arrogant will ignore the people and the warnings that could have saved them.

Who we are, the standards we hold ourselves to, the things we do regularly, our personality traits—in the end, these are all better predictors of the trajectory of our lives than talent, resources, or privilege. These tell us how we will respond to the future swings of Fortune, which, ultimately, is all we need to know.

“Most powerful is he,” as Seneca tried to instill in the rulers he advised, “who has himself in his own power.” Most powerful is he who is disciplined because…

Discipline is destiny.

www.dailystoic.com

Topley’s Top 10 – August 26, 2022

1. Equity Returns Resilient in Rising Rate Environments.

Capital Group https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/categories/outlook.html


2. Problem…..Inflation Adjusted (Real) Rates Still Well in Negative.

Different than past rate hike cycles

Dan Morehead  https://www.linkedin.com/in/dmorehead/


3. The 2 Year U.S. Treasury Broke Above Downtrend Line Going Back to 1980

www.stockcharts.com


4. Bond Index 50day thru 200 day to Downside

AGG index bearish signal on weekly chart

www.stockcharts.com


5. Energy ETFs Making Run at New Highs

XLE Energy ETF

PSCE Small Cap Energy ETF

www.stockcharts.com


6. OPEC/Saudis Talking Lower Production…Pullback to Feb Levels on Feared Global Slowdown

https://www.barrons.com/articles/oil-russia-ukraine-crude-51661443828?mod=hp_DAY_4


6. The global energy crisis could drive a massive $42 billion boost in natural gas investment in the next 2 years

Business Insider Jennifer Sor 

  • The energy crisis could drive a major boost in the natural gas market, and investment could reach $42 billion by 2024.
  • The lack of investment has been a key problem in the current global energy crisis.
  • It won’t come in time to help Europe, but it could cement the US’s rank as the world’s top LNG exporter.

The global energy crisis could bring a massive investment in natural gas infrastructure, with new investment in the industry hitting as much as $42 billion in 2024, according to Rystad Energy.

Underinvestment in infrastructure has been a key component of the global energy crisis, which threatens to send Asia, Europe, and the US into a crisis this winter. Analysts have said OPEC+ has largely run out of spare capacity, which the cartel has blamed on chronic underinvestment throughout the entire industry.

“As the global energy crisis deepens and countries scramble to secure reliable energy sources, investments in new liquefied natural gas infrastructure are set to surge,” Rystad said in a note on Wednesday. 

The analysts also predicted that total natural gas production will reach 14.7 million barrels per day in 2030, nearly double from the 8.7 million barrels per day reported in 2021. Total production is estimated to peak at 16.3 million bpd in 2034. 

That won’t come in time to aid Europe and Asia as they scramble for fuel supplies, but it will help cement the US’s position as the world’s top LNG exporter. By 2030, the Americas – with the US in the lead – is expected to fuel around 30% of the world’s natural gas consumption, and Asian-Pacific countries will account for around 25%, Rystad said.

Much of the investment so far has also taken place domestically. $10 billion has poured into Texas for Exxon Mobil’s and Qatar Energy’s Golden Pass LNG project. Another $13.2 billion has been directed to Louisiana to build Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG project. 

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/energy-crisis-europe-sanctions-global-natural-gas-investment-us-supply-2022-8

Natural Gas Made the New Highs


8. Goldman Sachs has run the numbers on student-loan forgiveness. This is its assessment.

Marketwatch Steve Goldstein

 

The White House on Wednesday finally released its program for student-loan-debt relief, saying it will cancel up to $20,000 in debt per borrower to households earning as much as $250,000.

Goldman Sachs economists Joseph Briggs and Alec Phillips ran through the numbers and gave a conclusion perhaps jarring to the plan’s supporters and detractors alike — that it won’t amount to much, saying the headlines are bigger than the macroeconomic impact.

If all borrowers eligible for the program enroll, it will reduce student-loan balances by around $400 billion, or 1.6% of GDP. That’s not a given — the economists point out that previous programs to reduce loan payments didn’t reach full enrollment.

The economists then drew on both Education Department data, as well as the Federal Reserve’s survey of consumer finances, to estimate the boost to income and consumption. Though lower-income households will see the largest proportional cut in debt payments, most of them don’t have student debt. The wealthy, on the other hand, are limited by the income thresholds attached to the relief. Middle-income households will benefit the most.

What’s the impact? Payments will fall from 0.4% of personal income to 0.3%. “This modest reduction in debt payments as a share of income implies only a modest boost to GDP. Relative to a counterfactual where debt forbearance ends and normal debt payments resume, our estimates imply a 0.1 percent point boost to the level of GDP in 2023 with smaller effects in subsequent years due to the natural maturation of student loans, as well as continued growth in nominal GDP,” they say.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-sachs-has-run-the-numbers-on-student-loan-relief-heres-their-assessment-11661417918?siteid=yhoof2


9. Another Look at Record Home Owner Equity….One Reason Consumer Still Feels Good.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/johnburns7/


10. The Benefits of a Performance Culture (and How to Implement One)

By Jim Motavalli | August 2, 2022 | 0 

 

Nice people don’t always finish first. The more money at stake, the more cutthroat a business is likely to be. All the hedge fund managers in Greenwich, Connecticut, probably didn’t pay for their Ferraris by being nice to people.

But what works on Wall Street—at least some of the time—is probably not going to work on Main Street. And Kansas-based Advisors Excel built its business the old-fashioned way—with honesty and care not only for its clients, but its employees, too. By staying true to its values, Excel was selected for the top 100 Best Small and Medium Workplaces for Millennials list by Fortune in 2021.

Cody Foster is co-founder and owner of the company, which started nearly two decades ago with three employees and which now works with about 500 advisers, according to the company. Foster says he learned a few things after the company’s first eight years of growth. There are things he would do differently, he says, but his core values influenced the company’s culture then and now, and it’s fair to say Excel was built with the kind of integrity that sometimes eludes bigger companies (even if their ethics policies say otherwise).

“In any business, no matter what field they’re in, the competitor with the best value proposition is going to win,” Foster says. “We felt we had a good value proposition… Things began picking up pretty well, and it turned out that what we thought was missing from the marketplace really was missing.”

A major lesson learned at Excel in the early days is the virtue of hard work. It seems obvious, but Foster says it’s often overlooked as a priority, especially when a business is starting out. “When it was just the three of us, we worked really hard—sometimes 24 hours straight—and did everything ourselves,” he says. “If your life is on the line to a degree, it’s amazing what you can get done.”

The company was launched on Feb. 1, 2005, only three days before Foster’s first child was born. Still, he kept his eyes on the prize—making Excel viable. “I put a lot of extra pressure on myself to make sure we could do it,” he says. “We were making a lot of cold calls, just pounding the phones, to try and convince people to work with us. That’s not necessarily the best approach to prospecting, but when our budget was limited we relied on it.”

Although that work ethic was a big virtue in building Excel, it turned out to be a deterrent as the company got bigger.

It’s a not-uncommon problem, sometimes called “founders’ syndrome.” Out of necessity, the original partners have to know and act decisively in every aspect of the business. But once they’ve added many new managers, they have to be ready to let go. “It’s great to be on top of everything going on in your organization,” Foster says, “but when you reach a certain size you can’t do that anymore.

“We could have done a better and quicker job of delegating, of trusting the people we had put in charge of certain areas. It’s hard to let go of things you’re used to doing all the time, but it was important to identify where our strengths and talents lie, and focus on getting the highest payoff,” he continued.

Missteps have been few for Excel, however. “We’ve had some failures along the way, but none of them have been colossal,” Foster says. “It’s a cliché to say you learn more from failures than anything else—I think you learn more from studying your successes.”

The company’s greatest success is in its values—primarily in having a performance culture. Even though it started small, Foster bristles at the notion that Advisors Excel is a “family” company, because it implies a lax working environment.

“It’s not a family culture; it’s a performance culture,” he says. “Working for us means having the most hectic workdays you’ll ever have. We don’t have room for people who don’t meet their goals, but that’s from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m.—you work really hard while you’re here, but we want people to have balance in their lives. We know in the great scheme of things that there are a lot of things that are more important than this job.”

Ensuring that workers have a life might not be a concern at many financial institutions. But Foster, who was raised in a small farming community, believes in investing in people for the long haul. “Working 20 hours a day isn’t sustainable in the long term,” he says. “I love the business, love our company, love the people who work with us, but I also have other priorities in my life. I do want to win, don’t get me wrong—we’re all about winning—but not at all costs. We don’t see our employees as interchangeable—they’re a valuable part of what we do.”

Some might have scoffed that Excel wasn’t ready to swim with the sharks in a very cutthroat business. The company’s results spoke for themselves, however: Excel had $3.6 billion in annual production in 2012 (up $900 million over 2011) and partnered with 850 leaders in the insurance business. In 2020, according to a report by the company, the “advisors working with Advisors Excel did over $8.2 billion in annuity, Medicare and life insurance production.”

In return for the growth, Excel’s hardworking staffers earn their annual trip to Cancún or some other fun destination—if and only if the company hits its numbers. After all, Advisors Excel has a performance culture.

This article was published in April 2014 and has been updated. Photo by @ilonakozhevnikova/Twenty20

https://www.success.com/the-benefits-of-a-performance-culture/

Topley’s Top 10 – August 25, 2022

1. VIX-Volatility Pulled Back to April Lows.

VIX hit 20 and bounced

 www.stockcharts.com


2. The Probability of 75 Basis Point Rate Hike in September 70%

The United States: To begin, the probability of a 75 bps rate hike in September is near 70% as Fed officials strike a hawkish tone.

Source: The Daily Shot

https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-august-23rd-2022


3. Euro New Lows…Straight Shot Down

www.stockcharts.com


4. Interesting Financial Engineering by Apple

Eddy Elfenbein -Crossing Wall Street —Apple Goes to the Bond Market

There’s some interesting news this week from Apple (AAPL). In a filing with the SEC, the computer giant said it’s going to issue long-term bonds and use the proceeds to pay out dividends and buy back its own stock.

In plainer terms, Apple is borrowing money to invest in itself. That’s not a bad idea if you can borrow for less than what you’re investing in. Right now, Apple pays a tiny dividend yield of 0.55%.

However, I think this move by Apple raises some important questions. The first is, should a company be involved in financial engineering? Some investors, including myself, believe a company should be solely focused on making money. What to do with that money should be left to the owners—the shareholders. I see moves like this as management encroaching on an area that’s not their concern. Unfortunately the government’s shifting tax policy has played a role in determining what companies do with their profits.

This isn’t just a buyback; Apple is borrowing money to fund the buyback. That raises another issue, what if Apple is paying too much for itself? Cisco famously lost billions of dollars investing in its inflated stock. A cash dividend to shareholders gives them the option to buy more or to invest their funds elsewhere.

What’s also interesting about this offering is that the bonds have a maturity of 7 to 40 years. According to Bloomberg, the offering is for $5.5 billion, and the bonds yield 118 points over similarly-dated Treasuries. The initial discussions were for a premium of 150 basis points, meaning there was unexpected demand for the bonds.

In December, Moody’s (MCO), a Buy List favorite, raised its long-term rating on Apple to AAA. That’s a huge deal. That’s roughly Wall Street’s equivalent of being a “made man” in the mafia. No one can touch you. Microsoft (MSFT) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) are the only other current members of the AAA club. If Wall Street thinks you’re on the same level as a sovereign government, perhaps you should have a similar debt load? Eh, I’m not so sure.

Apple is sitting on nearly $180 billion in cash. Four years ago, Apple had a cash position of $285 billion. There was a time when Apple had enough cash to buy every single team in the NFL, NBA, NHL and MLB.

Apple could also be taking advantage of lower interest rates. There’s been a surprising recovery in the bond market. During July, the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell by 33 basis points. That was the largest decline in yields in over two years.

Perhaps Apple sees inflation continuing to be a problem. One of the major issues with inflation is that it benefits borrowers at the expense of lenders. If the Fed is going to continue hiking rates, this offering could be quite remunerative for Apple.

This move also sends a positive message from Apple to the market that it plans to buy its stock for many years to come. Also, if Apple does something, then it gives cover for other boards of directors to do the same thing.

https://www.crossingwallstreet.com/


5. Bonds of Bed Bath & Beyond Collapse on Bankruptcy Fears as Suppliers with Unpaid Bills Halt Shipments

Wolf Street by Wolf Richter Meme-stock crowd got crushed, shares collapsed 69% in four days. Their billionaire hedge-fund hero, who might have known about the unpaid bills, got out in time.The $675 million of senior unsecured 30-year bonds that meme-stock darling Bed Bath & Beyond issued in 2014, and that are due in 2044, with a coupon interest of 5.165%, collapsed to a new closing low of 15.8 cents on the dollar today, with some trades being below 15 cents, after having plunged all last week from the meme-stock inspired dead-cat bounce.

That would be a yield to maturity of 33%, assuming that the company pays the interest for the life of the bond and doesn’t default, and at maturity pays off the bond. But with this yield, the bond market is signaling that a default and a bankruptcy filing are imminent, with a massive haircut for unsecured bondholders (chart by FINRA/Morningstar):

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/08/22/bonds-of-bed-bath-beyond-collapse-on-bankruptcy-fears-as-suppliers-with-unpaid-bills-halt-shipments/


6. Every time monthly supply of new houses has exceeded 9 months a recession has ensued. Currently at 10.8 months.

@NorthmanTrader

https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader


7. Not Familiar with this Chart but Housing a Big Part of GDP

@MacroAlf

Housing market trends lead economic and labor market cycles by 6-12 months. Right now, the US housing market is signalling unemployment rate will likely be above 6% in 2023: another data point which is inconsistent with a soft landing.


8. Housing Summary…New Home Sales Hit 6 Year Low

@Charlie Bilello

New Home Sales hit a 6-year low in July, down over 50% from their 2020 high.

Powered by YCharts​

–Existing Home Sales continue to plummet, down 20% over the last year and at their lowest levels since June 2020.

Here’s the breakdown in existing home sales by price range, which is now showing declines in transactions across the board (from low end to high end).


9. Student Loan Forgiveness Summary

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-24/biden-set-to-freeze-student-loan-repayments-for-four-more-months?srnd=premium&sref=GGda9y2L


10. Choosing Quality Over Quantity-One Frugal Girl Blog

If given the option, would you choose quality over quantity?

As a child, I loved receiving new toys and clothes. Whenever my mom left for the store, I’d say, “buy me something.”

When Christmas came, I counted my gifts to see how many I received, and then counted my brother’s for comparison.

I counted the number of eggs I collected on Easter Sunday, the number of friends who wrote in my yearbook, and the stacks of clothing that filled my closet. I desired more of everything.

Unfortunately, the desire for more isn’t just a problem in childhood. As adults, we can count the number of likes on Facebook, the number of cars in our driveway, and the amount of money piled into our bank accounts.

Choosing Quality Over Quantity

How often do you choose quality over quantity? And how often do you do the reverse?

Do you choose possessions, likes, and money over more meaningful measurements?

Many of us select the most abundant option when given a choice. We learn to care more about counting possessions than carefully selecting which ones to cherish.

If we aren’t careful, we can waste our lives searching for quantity when we should be searching for quality. Measuring success in terms of numbers is an inaccurate assessment of our lives.

The Quest for More

When we focus on quantity, we can quickly lose track of the things that matter. In school, we aren’t happy with a handful of friends; instead, we want to be the most popular.

At work, we aren’t happy with our jobs. We want to reach higher rungs of the corporate ladder.

We want higher bandwidth, increased capacity, and quicker transactions.

But striving for a quantity-based life can lead us to feel ungrateful. When we choose quantity over quality, we can’t stop counting.

This quest for more can make our lives feel empty. We wonder if happiness exists around the corner. Perhaps my next possession will fulfill me in a way I’ve yet to feel fulfilled before.

Our consumer-driven culture motivates us to upgrade possessions and increase the number of things we own. But the quantity of our belongings doesn’t improve the quality of our lives. Instead, it impairs it.

In the quest to increase the number of items we possess, we stay on the hedonic treadmill. We continue to perform jobs we don’t love and earn money buying stuff we don’t care about.

We can never have enough when we focus on quantity. We are always searching for more but fail to feel satisfied. We live our lives constantly, longing for more.

Choosing Quality

Multiple times a day, we face the option to choose quantity over quality.

We can buy fewer high-quality products in favor of many cheap ones. Spend more time collecting social media likes than forging deep, meaningful relationships or waste countless hours staring at smartphones rather than spending a few moments with people we love.

But is this how we want to live our lives? Can we learn to stop counting and focus on quality over quantity instead?

Choosing Happiness

Having more of something doesn’t always bring greater happiness. When my son turned eight, we asked him how he wanted to celebrate his birthday.

“We can throw a big party in our backyard with all of your classmates,” I suggested.

“I only want to invite three people,” he told me. “I’d rather have a couple of friends I care about than a house full of people.”

We took three friends bowling that year because my eight-year-old didn’t need a room full of kids singing happy birthday. Instead, he wanted a few good friends to stand beside him as he blew out his candles.

My son didn’t need more friends to create a better birthday party. Deep inside, he knew a few good friends was more than enough.

Choosing Quality Time

When my dad was diagnosed with cancer, I became hyper-aware of the quality versus quantity conundrum.

At every office visit, my father’s oncologist looked him in the eye and said, “We must consider the quality of your life over the quantity of it.” My father died this spring, and those words echo in my ears louder than ever.

I didn’t want my father to die, but I didn’t want him to suffer either. My father’s death and the days and months leading up to it forced me to contemplate quality over quantity.

How do we spend time when we are feeling alive and well? How much time do we spend with those we love, and what do we do when we are together?

When in the presence of others, do we answer text messages or concentrate on the person sitting directly in front of us?

Quality time means devoting the space to the people you love and talking with them without distractions. These quality moments are the ones we commit to memory and happily recall when walking down memory lane.

Choosing Quality Relationships

Would you rather have hundreds of so-called friends on social media or a few meaningful relationships?

The majority of social media interactions are meaningless. Yet we waste our days scrolling through pages full of people we’ve never met or haven’t seen in years.

In the meantime, we don’t take the time to reach out to real friends.

Catching up with old friends a few times a year is more rewarding than interacting with acquaintances on social media daily.

It’s not the amount of time that creates meaningful relationships but the amount of quality time we spend sharing stories, catching up on new events, and supporting one another.

Think of all the deep, meaningful conversations you’ve shared that impact your heart and mind long after speaking with someone you cherish. These moments may have changed your life trajectory or taught you a valuable lesson about the world or your place in it.

When we tend to our relationships, we share tidbits of wisdom and advice that can remain with us for the rest of our lives. We discover our interests, values, and ways we can make this world a better place.

Choosing Quality Interactions

If you’ve read this blog before, you probably know that I’ve been blogging for seventeen years. But the most meaningful part of blogging isn’t seeing likes on social media or the number of times my articles are shared. It’s not appearing in Forbes or other online publications either.

While I am grateful for those interactions, the best part of writing is the correspondence and comments I receive from readers.

When a woman reaches out in fear of a call-back mammogram or a new mom emails about becoming a stay-at-home parent, I know my stories are helping others.

https://www.onefrugalgirl.com/quality-over-quantity/

Topley’s Top 10 – August 23, 2022

1. U.S. 10 Year Treasury Approaching 3%

www.stockcharts.com


2. Bearish Treasury Bets at 4 Year High

Dave Lutz Jones Trading-Bearish Speculative Treasury Bets Rise to Four-Year High – An aggregate gauge of net-short non-commercial positions across all Treasury maturities shows bearish bets have grown to the most since 2018 – The “Pain Trade” is a Dovish Speech.


3. Down Markets Top Sectors

Capital Group

4 reasons health care could lead the next bull market | Capital Group


4. Energy Stocks Multiple Still Well Below S&P

Barrons-Ben Levisohn—Energy stock profits rose nearly 300% during the second quarter, according to Refinitiv, nearly 10 times faster than the next sector, industrials, which grew earnings at a 32% clip. Energy stocks have increased earnings by 400% from 2019, says DataTrek Research’s Nick Colas. “Their earnings power is far better than prepandemic, and we believe that can continue,” he writes.

READ MORE UP AND DOWN WALL STREET

They also remain dirt cheap. The Energy Select Sector SPDR trades at just 8.5 times 12-month forward earnings, well below the S&P 500’s 18.2 times and below its own 10-year average of 16.4. In an environment where price/earnings ratios could remain under pressure, that kind of valuation looks particularly attractive, Colas says.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/oil-prices-stocks-51660954725?mod=past_editions

XLF Energy ETF Held 200 Week Moving Average on Pullback

www.stockcharts.com


5. Food Inflation-Diesel Fuel Powers 75% of U.S. Farm Equipment

Barrons-Diesel engines power roughly 75% of U.S. farm equipment, transport 90% of farm products, and pump about 20% of agriculture’s irrigation water, according to Diesel Technology Forum.

Diesel supplies have been tight, partly due to a lack of Russian oil, says Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, adding that Russian oil is heavier and yields more heavy products like diesel. “There’s a possibility that diesel might break new record highs, particularly in the fourth quarter,” says Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at the Oil Price Information Service, a unit of Dow Jones & Co., publisher of Barron’s and MarketWatch. “Commercial and industrial customers around the world are jumping through hoops to come up with methods of substituting oil, diesel, and marine gasoil for natural gas.”

https://www.barrons.com/articles/food-prices-could-stay-high-due-to-surging-energy-costs-51660843083?mod=past_editions

 

Diesel Fuel Doubled in 18 mos


6. Emerging Markets Historical Versus S&P

Emerging Markets vs US Equities:  that is one heck of a round-trip in relative performance for emerging markets vs the S&P500…

 

Emerging Markets outperformed the S&P 500 some 4x over the 10 year period from 2001 to 2010, only to give it all back over the subsequent ~10 years.

It’s interesting to look back and reflect on these periods.

The structural bull market in EM vs US featured a period of tech stagnation post-dot com on the US side, vs a big economic catch-up by emerging markets (especially China), and a massive commodities bull market.

The bear market in EM vs US on the other hand saw a period of economic stagnation across emerging markets and a secular bear market in commodities, meanwhile US tech had a decade-long renaissance.

It’s hard to make forecasts, especially about the future, but as to what happens the next decade — it’s probably going to show up in the form of a big secular trend in a chart (like the one above).

I will say one thing though that does kind of help, and that’s valuations. At the extreme around the peak of the dot com bubble, EM traded at almost an 80% discount vs the US. Fast forward, at the peak of the EM frenzy, EM traded at about a 30% premium vs US.

As I write EM is trading about a 50-60% discount vs the US.

It’s not as extreme as that 80% discount all the way back in the day, but it is a major discount and it gives one pause to ponder if all the bad things about EM is already in the price and all the good things about the US is already in the price, and perhaps then some. Thinking about that along with the completion of that massive round trip certainly at the least makes one want to go and do a bit more homework on this one…

https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-21-august


7. Used Car Prices Rolling Over

JP Morgan

https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com


8. Drought Unearths Ancient Artifacts

ENVIRONMENT

Drying rivers reveal historical treasures

A hunger stone found in the Czech Republic. Vit Cerny/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images.

As droughts stalk the globe, drying rivers and watersheds have disrupted cargo flows in Europe, led Tesla and other manufacturers to suspend production in China, and forced American farmers to cut back on water use.

But shrinking water levels have also unearthed remarkable artifacts that were thought to have been lost to history.

Perhaps the most ominous findings are the “hunger stones” etched along the banks of central Europe’s rivers. These inscriptions date back centuries, and generally offer the same message to future generations: “If the water is low enough for you to read this, prepare for pain.”

Some other discoveries:

  • More than 20 Nazi warships, laden with explosives, were uncovered in Serbia as the Danube fell to its lowest level in nearly 100 years, per the Guardian.
  • Across Italy’s shrinking river system, ruins of ancient civilizations have been discovered, including a bridge that may have been built by the Roman emperor Nero.
  • In the parched Yangtze River in China, three Buddhist statues believed to be 600 years old were found, per Reuters.
  • Five sets of human remains have been found as Lake Mead dries up in the Southwest US. Rumors are flowing that at least some are tied to mob activity in Las Vegas decades ago.

Zoom out: Who knows who or what we’ll find sleeping with the fishes in the future. The number of droughts globally has jumped 29% since 2000 due to climate change and land degradation, the UN says

https://www.morningbrew.com/daily


9. Souther Border Apprehensions 1999-2021


10. Conquering the 4 Horsemen of Fear

Psychology Today What’s Hiding Behind Your Self-Sabotaging Behaviors?

Conquering the “Four Horsemen of Fear.”

KEY POINTS

  • Most of us struggle with self-sabotaging behaviors even though we want to change them.
  • Self-sabotaging behaviors like procrastination and perfectionism may be a way to avoid our fears.
  • By understanding the function of our behaviors, we can start to change them.

 

One of the most common strategies psychologists use to understand a behavior is to do a functional analysis—which is basically when we look at a given behavior and try to figure out what function, or purpose, it serves.

People don’t just do things randomly—our behaviors and habits exist for a reason.

Here’s the weird thing about self-sabotaging behaviors: No matter how destructive we know they are, or how badly we want to stop engaging in them, they still serve a specific function—which is, often, to help us avoid facing our fears.

In Part 1 of this series, we talked about the four most common limiting beliefs that hold us back from flourishing: the “Four Horsemen of Fear.” These include Fear of Failure, Fear of Ridicule, Fear of Uncertainty, and Fear of Success.

We instinctively avoid things that terrify us—which is usually adaptive. But the longer we avoid the horsemen, the longer we avoid doing the things that lead to us flourishing.

So, although fear-avoidance has historically been adaptive for our species, for many of us in modern times, it’s become maladaptive. If we want to flourish, we have to understand the most common self-sabotaging behaviors the horsemen hide behind by performing a functional analysis.

Procrastination

The busier you stay, the more productive you are, right?

Spend hours getting to “inbox zero.” Spend your time putting out every small fire that pops up. Have a great new idea? Immediately chase it while leaving your current projects half-finished.

Think procrastination is your problem? Think again.

Performing a functioning analysis on procrastination may yield interesting results. Many chronic procrastinators can get stuff done when they’re up against a deadline.

The real question is: What is procrastinating helping you avoid? For many, the horsemen whisper: If you never finish, you never risk failure or success.

Perfectionism and Imposter Syndrome

Perfectionism and imposter syndrome are two sides of the same coin—feeling like you aren’t good enough “yet.” You’re not ready. You’re unqualified. Better to wait until you learn more or feel more confident.

How long have you been “writing” your book or article, but still won’t publish it? How long have you been thinking about, or tinkering on, that project but still haven’t shipped it? How long have you thought out every possible scenario and created the “perfect” plan, but still haven’t taken the steps to go from idea to execution?

Read all the self-help books and productivity “hacks” you want, but productivity isn’t your problem. Fear is.

The horsemen whisper: As long as you don’t put yourself out there, you never risk ridicule or failure.

Complacency

Most people would rather choose the path that leads to predictable misery than the one that offers the chance of a better life. Humans are creatures of habit. We gravitate toward what we can anticipate. Uncertainty is terrifying.

So, we choose the path of least resistance. We lock our dreams and aspirations away in a box and throw away the key. We take the job that sucks but offers a steady paycheck. We spend 45 years of our lives miserable, looking forward to the day we retire so we can “finally enjoy life.” Then we hit 65, retire, maybe enjoy a few years of health with our loved ones, then die around 80.

We sacrifice 45 years of our life in misery to enjoy the last 15 because the alternative of venturing into the unknown is terrifying.

The horsemen whisper: As long as you stay in your comfort zone, you’re safe from uncertainty.

Wrap Up

Now you know each of the Four Horsemen of Fear, how they disguise themselves, and why we self-sabotage. Overcoming them comes next.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/human-flourishing-101/202208/what-s-hiding-behind-your-self-sabotaging-behaviors?collection=1178684

Topley’s Top 10 – August 22, 2022

1. XBI Biotech ETF Rallied 40% Since June

XBI big rally but fails below 200day

www.stockcharts.com


2. Small Cap Russell 2000 Rallies 20% Since June

Small Cap held 200week moving average

www.stockcharts.com


3. BBBY Short Interest Got to 55% of Float …Now 38%

https://fintel.io/ss/us/bbby

www.stockcharts.com


4. S&P Stocks with 80% of Returns Coming from Dividends

Bespoke Investment Group-The table below outlines twenty S&P 500 stocks that have seen a high percentage of their returns over the last twenty years come from dividends. The average stock on this list has seen over 80% of their gains over the last two decades come from dividends alone. Although the average stock on this list has only seen a price gain of 61.1% since August of 2002, their average total return when factoring in dividends re-invested has been 278%.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/total-return-vs-price-change-spreads


5. Bank Loans Still Growing

Bank Loan Growth From Torsten Slok’s “Recession Watch” chartpack today: If you are thinking we are currently in, or were recently in, a recession, this is a picture you should be contemplating.

Econbrowser  https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/08/bank-loan-growth-latest-available  From Abnormal Returns Blog www.abnormalreturns.com


6. Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index Improving

Factors behind the BFCI  include:

​

1. the US Ted spread (difference between Libor and Tbills rate)

 

2. the Libor/OIS spread (an important metric of whole sale liquidity availability measuring the difference between the Libor rate and the interest rate swap level of an equivalent tenor. Libor measures the cost of lending with exchange of principal while the swap rate (OIS) is “just” an interest rate level at which interest rate risk can be undertaken or hedged in the derivatives market without exchange of principal i.e. without actual lending of borrowing of money. During the 2007 crisis, it was possible  to  exchange interest rate risk …but not borrow money which led to a sharp increase in the Libor/OIS spread.

​

3. the commercial paper/T-bills spread (difference in credit spreads between corporate and government paper in the money market curve (1 to 12 months tenor). During the crisis, everybody rushed into T-bills with few interested by corporate credit risk (commercial paper) even and sometimes in particular in short term maturities.

4. US High Yield /10Y Treasury spread measuring the long term credit spread between US treasuries and US High yield.

5. US Muni/10Y Treasury spread measuring the long term credit premium between US municipal bonds and US treasuries

6. Swaption Volatility index

7. S&P500 (stock market level)

8. VIX  (Spot Option volatility on the S&P500)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-21/powell-has-chance-to-reset-market-expectations-at-jackson-hole?srnd=premium&sref=GGda9y2L


7. Buyback Tax in New Bill….S&P Buybacks 25 Year High vs. CAPEX.

@tavicosta Companies are doing more share buybacks versus investing in their own businesses than any other time in the last 25 years.

https://twitter.com/TaviCosta


8. Three Arrows Capital-The Crypto Geniuses Who Vaporized $1 Trillion

Trillion Dollar

New York Mag-Among crypto’s smartest observers, there is a widely held view that Three Arrows is meaningfully responsible for the larger crypto crash of 2022, as market chaos and forced selling sent bitcoin and other digital assets plunging 70 percent or more, erasing more than a trillion dollars in value. “I suspect they might be 80 percent of the total original contagion,” says Sam Bankman-Fried, who as CEO of FTX, a major crypto exchange that has bailed out some of the bankrupt lenders, has perhaps more visibility on the problems than anyone. “They weren’t the only people who blew out, but they did it way bigger than anyone else did. And they had way more trust from the ecosystem prior to that.”

For a firm that had always portrayed itself as playing just with its own money — “We don’t have any external investors,” Zhu, 3AC’s CEO, had told Bloomberg as recently as February — the damage Three Arrows caused was astonishing. By mid-July, creditors had come forward with more than $2.8 billion in claims; the figure is expected to balloon from there. Everyone in crypto, from the largest lenders to wealthy investors, seemed to have lent 3AC their digital coins, even 3AC’s own employees, who deposited their salaries with its “borrowing desk” in exchange for interest. “So many people feel disappointed and some of them embarrassed,” says Alex Svanevik, the CEO of Nansen, a Singapore-based blockchain-analytics company. “And they shouldn’t because a lot of people fell for this, and a lot of people gave them money.”

That money appears to be gone now, along with the assets of several affiliated funds and portions of the treasuries of various crypto projects 3AC had managed. The true scale of the losses may never be known; for many of the crypto start-ups that parked their money with the firm, disclosing that relationship publicly is to risk increased scrutiny from both their investors and government regulators. (For this reason, along with the legal complexities of being a creditor, many people who spoke about their experiences with 3AC have asked to remain anonymous.)

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/three-arrows-capital-kyle-davies-su-zhu-crash.html?utm_source=tw&utm_campaign=nym&utm_medium=s1


9. 73% of Homeowners Mortgages are Below 4%….They are not Moving.

John Burns Real Estate-73% of homeowner mortgages are less than 4%, which is a great reason to stay put.

I recently learned why those with high interest rates don’t refinance. They often have such a small remaining balance that it isn’t worth it for the lender to offer them a refi.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/johnburns7/


10. Stop drinking, keep reading, look after your hearing: a neurologist’s tips for fighting memory loss and Alzheimer’s

‘The art of memory is the art of attention’ …

When does forgetfulness become something more serious? And how can we delay or even prevent that change? We talk to brain expert Richard Restak

Gaby Hinsliff

You walk into a room, but can’t remember what you came in for. Or you bump into an old acquaintance at work, and forget their name. Most of us have had momentary memory lapses like this, but in middle age they can start to feel more ominous. Do they make us look unprofessional, or past it? Could this even be a sign of impending dementia? The good news for the increasingly forgetful, however, is that not only can memory be improved with practice, but that it looks increasingly as if some cases of Alzheimer’s may be preventable too.

Neuroscientist Dr Richard Restak is a past president of the American Neuropsychiatric Association, who has lectured on the brain and behaviour everywhere from the Pentagon to Nasa, and written more than 20 books on the human brain. His latest, The Complete Guide to Memory: The Science of Strengthening Your Mind, homes in on the great unspoken fear that every time you can’t remember where you put your reading glasses, it’s a sign of impending doom. “In America today,” he writes “anyone over 50 lives in dread of the big A.” Memory lapses are, he writes, the single most common complaint over-55s raise with their doctors, even though much of what they describe turns out to be nothing to worry about.

 

Coming out of a shop and not being able to remember where you left the car, for example, is perfectly normal: it’s likely you just weren’t concentrating when you parked, and therefore the car’s location wasn’t properly encoded in your brain. Forgetting what you came into a room for is probably just a sign you’re busy and preoccupied with other things, says Restak.

“Samuel Johnson said that the art of memory is the art of attention,” he says, down the line from his office in Washington DC (at 80, Restak is still a practising clinical professor at George Washington Hospital University School of Medicine and Health). “Most of these sins of ‘memory loss’ are sins of not paying attention. If you’re at a party and you’re not really listening to someone, because you are still thinking about some work-related matter, suddenly later you find you can’t remember their name. The first thing is you put the information in memory – that’s consolidating it – and then you have to be able to retrieve it. But if you’ve never consolidated it in the first place, it doesn’t exist.”

But what if you forget where you left your car keys, and eventually find them inside the fridge? “That’s often the first sign of something serious – you open up the refrigerator door, and it’s the newspaper, or your car keys, inside. That’s a little bit beyond forgetful.”

Memory does vary, he points out, and some people will always have been scatty. But the real red flag is a change that seems out of character. If you’re a keen card player who prides yourself on always keeping track of which cards have been played, and suddenly realise you can’t do that any more, it could be worth investigating. Similarly, Restak has noticed that many patients in the early stages of dementia stop reading fiction, because it’s too difficult to remember what the character said or did a few chapters earlier – which is unfortunate, he says, because reading complex novels can be a valuable mental workout in itself.

Restak and his wife are currently on Alexandre Dumas’s The Count of Monte Cristo, which has a complex sprawling cast: “It’s an exercise in being able to keep track of characters without going backwards from one page to another.” If that’s already difficult for you, he says, it’s fine to underline the first mention of a new character and then flip back to remind yourself later if necessary. “Do whatever you have to, to keep yourself reading.”

Like following a recipe, keeping track of fictional plots is an exercise of working memory – as distinct from short-term memory (temporarily storing something like a phone number that you can safely forget the minute you’ve dialed it) or episodic memory, which covers things like recollections of childhood. Working memory is what we use to “work with the information we have”, says Restak, and it’s the one we should all prioritise. Left to its own devices, he points out, memory naturally starts to decline from your 30s onwards, which is why he advocates practising it daily.

Restak’s book is full of games, tricks and ideas for honing recall, often involving creating vivid visual images for things you want to remember. He holds a mental map of his neighbourhood in his head, incorporating visually familiar landmarks – his house, the local library, a restaurant he often goes to – and for each item on a list he wants to remember, he will create a memorable visual image and attach it somewhere specific on the map. To remember to buy milk, bread and coffee later, for example, he might envisage his house transformed into a carton of milk, the library full of loaves rather than books, and a giant cup of coffee spilling out of the restaurant.

The book also touches on broader lifestyle advice. Recently, research from the Lancet’s commission on dementia suggested up to 40% of Alzheimer’s cases could be prevented or delayed – much like heart disease and many cancers – by limiting 12 risk factors, from smoking to obesity and heavy drinking.

Restak advises his patients to quit alcohol by 70 at the latest. Over 65, he writes, you typically have fewer brain neurons than when you were younger, so why risk them? “Alcohol is a very, very weak neurotoxin – it’s not good for nerve cells.”

He’s also an advocate of the short afternoon nap, since getting enough sleep helps brain function (which may help explain why sleep-deprived new mothers, and menopausal women suffering from night sweats and insomnia, often complain of brain fog).

More unexpectedly, he recommends tackling hearing or vision problems promptly, because they make it harder to engage in conversations and hobbies that keep the cogs turning. “You have to have a certain level of vision to read comfortably, and if that’s missing then you are going to read less. As a result of that, you’re going to learn less and be a less interesting person to other people. All of these things really come down to socialisation, which is the most important part of keeping away Alzheimer’s and dementia, and keeping your memory.”

Socialisation is the most important part of keeping away Alzheimer’s and dementia, and keeping your memory

Is he saying that honing your memory can stop you getting Alzheimer’s? “No one can guarantee that anybody else is not going to get dementia. Take somebody like Iris Murdoch (the late writer, who suffered from it) – there’s probably not a more brilliant woman in all of Europe, so it shows that it can happen. But I compare it to driving a car: you can’t guarantee you won’t get in an accident but by wearing your seatbelt and checking your speed and keeping the car maintained, you can lessen your chances.”

Not all memories, however, are ones people want to treasure. Many have mental images they’d rather forget, whether it’s of an embarrassing mistake or a painful failed relationship, or intrusive flashbacks from post-traumatic stress disorder.

The fantasy of wiping the slate clean is a pervasive one in popular culture, from the film Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (about a couple who break up, and use a futuristic machine to zap memories of each other) to the Men in Black franchise, where alien-fighting secret agents electronically erase the memories of anyone who sees them in action, thus protecting mere mortals from the truth about what’s out there.

These may be strictly fantasies but we already have the technology, Restak suggests, to inhibit people from laying down memories that might in future haunt them. Beta blockers, drugs sometimes used to treat high blood pressure, have been found to dull the emotional response triggered when something frightening is recalled, but Restak says there’s evidence they also interfere with the consolidation of events as memories.

“There are actually discussions about whether these drugs should be part of the armoury that would be used if we have got to send people into terrible scenarios, such as after a shooting – that must be a horrible experience, to go in there and clean these places up.” But it’s a blunt tool – the drugs can’t distinguish between memories that might be useful in future to emergency first responders, and ones that are simply distressing – and raises complex questions about the ethics of tampering with people’s minds.

Don’t just look on dementia as a hopeless situation, although it’s a very frustrating one

Restak also highlights concerns about what he calls “memory wars”, or attempts to influence a nation’s collective memory by disputing what a particular event or period means. “The way we frame it in our memory is how we then perceive the world around us, and that’s what is encoded in the memory,” he says, pointing to recent political arguments in the US over whether the technical recession the country has entered – defined as two quarters of economic contraction – is actually a “real” recession. “It’s important because if you think you are in a recession you have certain beliefs and modes of action, and that’s how we are going to remember July 2022.”

And, as he argues, memory is intrinsic to who we are. It binds families and couples together, as we reminisce about our shared past. For individuals, meanwhile, past experience gives life meaning and texture. “We are what we can remember. The more things you can remember, the more clearly, the more full and enriched our personalities,” says Restak, who argues that the personalities of dementia sufferers can become flatter and more attenuated. “People say ‘Oh, they don’t seem to be the same person.’” Perhaps that’s why we fear Alzheimer’s so much: memory is so closely allied to a sense of self.

Yet even after memory loss has set in, it’s not necessarily too late to help people hold on to whatever’s left. One neurologist Restak knows had two patients who “weren’t sure where they were or what day it was”, but could still play a decent game of bridge. If someone you love has Alzheimer’s, Restak says, don’t upset them by constantly challenging mistakes or memory lapses; instead, meet them where they are now.

“What are they still interested in? Talk about that, work with that, because a lot of things stay within normal range even with a pattern of dementia,” he says. “You don’t just look on it as a hopeless situation, although it’s a very frustrating one and it’s very sad.” Where a flicker of memory remains, perhaps, there’s hope.

on

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https://www.theguardian.com/science/2022/aug/17/stop-drinking-keep-reading-look-after-your-hearing-a-neurologists-tips-for-fighting-memory-loss-and-alzheimers

Topley’s Top 10 – August 19, 2022

1. Natural Gas +33% in 30 Days…Breaks Out to New Highs

Natural Gas Futures

www.stockcharts.com


2. What Bubble Pop? Meme Basket +50% in One Month

A basket of meme stocks is up some 50% this month. Risk appetite is back.

https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-august-17th-2022/


3. U.S. Financials vs. European Financials 2014-2022

@Charlie Bilello


4. Saudi Aramaco Oil Company $48B in Profit Q2

Chartr.com Been wondering where all that extra money you’ve been shelling out on gas over the last year has been going? Well, there’s a decent chance at least some of it ended up in the pockets of Saudi Aramco, the world’s biggest oil firm, which this week announced a staggering $48.4bn of net income for the second quarter — an eye-watering sum even by their standards.

The Saudi Arabian company, which is largely state-run, is the latest to benefit from rising oil and energy prices, as many countries attempt to wean themselves off Russian supplies.

There’s Big and there’s BIG

It’s hard to convey how big Saudi Aramco truly is — but the best bet is to compare it against the behemoths of big tech. Incredibly, Aramco’s net income more than doubles Apple’s comparatively measly $19.4bn in their latest quarter — and it takes adding Microsoft, Meta and Tesla to get to a number that’s even slightly comparable to what Aramco pulled in for Q2.

Aramco’s results this year will be a huge boon for the state’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) — the financial body that invests on behalf of the government and seeks to expand Saudi prospects beyond oil. The PIF’s portfolio is certainly diverse: so far they’ve bought a soccer team, set up a controversial golf series, and are even attempting to establish a mirrored metropolis to “revolutionize our current way of life”.

www.chartr.com


5. Apartment Rents Slowing Down…Biggest Part of CPI

Guggenheim-An even more important sign for the medium-term outlook was the moderation in core services inflation. Rent inflation remains red hot but cooled down a bit with rent declining from 9.7 percent annualized to 8.8 percent and owners’ equivalent rent down from 8.7 percent to 7.9 percent. These two categories alone are still contributing 2.5 percentage points to headline CPI so need to slow much more, but more timely measures of market rents (such as Zillow and Apartment List data) point to more moderation in the months ahead. Recent business surveys such as the ISM Services index also point to more slowing in services inflation.

https://www.guggenheimpartners.com/perspectives/macroeconomic-research/inflation-moderation-we-expected-should-continue


6. Crude Oil Inventories Fell by Over 5m Barrells

Bloomberg Julia Fanzeres- Oil rose for a second day as a bullish US stockpile report blunted concerns over the potential effects of an economic slowdown.

West Texas Intermediate rallied above $90 a barrel after this week’s Energy Information Administration report offset concerns over a potential recession wrecking the oil market. Geopolitical tremors accelerated the rally as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he sees no end to the war without troop withdrawals during a meeting with Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The EIA report surprised markets by signaling “the fundamentals may not be as negative to crude as thought just a week ago,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial. “However, traders are still worried about the overall economic outlook going forward, it’s keeping a very nervous trade to the futures market.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-dips-economic-slowdown-weighed-001158026.html


7. A Detailed Picture of What’s in the Climate and Health Bill

Source: New York Times

From Barry Ritholtz Blog https://ritholtz.com/2022/08/10-thursday-am-reads-400/


8. New Big Ten TV Deal Triple Size of Prior Agreement

Big Ten Sets College Record With $1 Billion-a-Year Broadcast Deal

  • Fox to pay $400 million a year for football, men’s basketball
  • New deal nearly triples size of prior agreement with Fox, ESPN

 

By

Gerry Smith

Fox, CBS and NBC will collectively pay $1.1 billion a year for the rights to broadcast Big Ten Conference sports in the largest deal of its kind for college athletics.

Fox Corp. will pay about $400 million per year to televise football and men’s basketball games, with the opportunity to carry more sports throughout the year, according to a person familiar with the matter. Paramount Global’s CBS and Comcast Corp.’s NBC are each paying about $350 million annually, as Bloomberg previously reported.

The new seven-year contract that starts next season is almost triple the size of the prior deal, where Fox and ESPN were paying $430 million a year combined. Rights to air sports on TV and streaming networks have gotten increasingly costly in recent years, squeezing media companies that are also grappling with the loss of cable subscribers.

Two years ago, Walt Disney Co., which owns ABC and ESPN, agreedto pay the Southeastern Conference around $300 million annually for its media rights, up significantly from the $55 million per year that CBS has been paying. ESPN declined to pay about $380 million a year for a portion of the Big Ten package, ending a longtime relationship with the conference.

Fox also owns 61% of the Big Ten Network, which will still televise the conference’s football, basketball and Olympic sport competitions. CBS and NBC will show games on their respective streaming services, Paramount+ and Peacock.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-18/big-ten-sets-college-record-with-1-1-billion-media-rights-deal?sref=GGda9y2L


9. Pew Research….Political Party Opinions

https://www/pewresearch.org/politics/2022/08/09/as-partisan-hostility-grows-signs-of-frustration-with-the-two-party-system/pp_2022-08-09_patisan-hospitility_00-01/


10. The 3 Most Common Lies We Tell Ourselves

Lying to yourself can be as destructive as lying to others.

KEY POINTS

  • Consideration of the lies we tell ourselves relates to the broader context of self-awareness. 
  • Honesty requires taking daily inventory of one’s true thoughts, feelings, and personal actions.
  • Most lies we tell ourselves relate to emotions and how those emotions interact with relationships and overall goals.

When considering the word “lie,” the first association that may come to mind is a behavior enacted by one individual to another. While there’s no question that lying is frequently practiced in social relationships, another behavior is likely just as common: individuals lying to themselves.

To begin, it’s important to note that psychology research on the lies individuals tell themselves is challenged due to an understandable self-serving bias, meaning that individuals often work to portray themselves in a favorable light. For this reason, the vast majority of subjects may not be truthful when asked to report how frequently they lie to themselves about any number of issues.

Based on anecdotal data from years of clinical work, including psychological assessment and psychotherapy, I can share firsthand knowledge about the frequency and even intensity with which individuals may try to tell themselves things that aren’t true.

Consideration of the lies we tell ourselves relates to the broader context of self-awareness. If you take a moment to think, for example, about individuals in your personal or professional life, it’s clear to see there is variability in the degree of self-awareness a particular individual has. Some people are more open about their flaws and emotional struggles, while others are guarded to the point of secret keeping. It will also come as no surprise that it’s far easier to look analytically or critically at others than it is to look at yourself in an objective, evaluative manner.

How would you answer this question: What are some of the lies I may tell myself? Another way to think about this is to ask yourself this: What are some possible examples of my own denial when I think about myself and my actions, or my behavior in relationships?

In my clinical work, I’ve found that most of the lies individuals tell themselves relate to emotions and how those emotions interact with their relationships and overall goals in life. Read about common self-lies below and consider the degree to which you may engage in any of these cognitive distortions (otherwise known as lies).

1. Telling Yourself That an Apology Truly Makes Things Better

Social indoctrination teaches young children that social violations and other transgressions should be followed by an expressed apology. While this reparative attempt can be an important measure to incorporate into one’s behavioral repertoire, people sometimes make the mistake of believing that an apology is a one-and-done, perfect solution. To be clear, an apology is not a solution to the problem of the violation or trespass. An apology does not solve any particular underlying problem, which could range from, say, the reason a small child aggresses another child on the playground to the more severe aggression of an adult who is verbally cruel to their romantic partner in a heated moment.

When people tell themselves that an apology makes everything better after a trespass, they lie to themselves about the potential longer-lasting damage, which is a loss of trust. Most importantly, telling oneself that an apology makes everything better prevents the real work that must be done to convince the other that the relationship is truly safe and trustworthy.

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2. Telling Yourself That You’re Angry When What You Really Feel Is Hurt

One of the most common mistakes I see as individuals navigate the complex web of interpersonal relationships is confusing one emotion for another. When someone feels significantly upset because of an action or inaction on the part of someone else, the first and last reaction is often anger. People gravitate toward anger quickly and automatically, which is understandable in some ways: Feeling angry also feels empowering. When one feels angry, one tends to feel stronger and more in control, as opposed to the way feeling hurt causes one to feel vulnerable or even helpless. 

If you think about your own life and past experiences, recall an occasion when you felt overwhelmed with anger toward a romantic partner or friend. While anger may be an understandable consequence, ask yourself if anger was the true root of how you felt. Remember that humans can feel more than one emotion at the same time and that they also may experience a sequence of different emotions if they are self-aware and honest with themselves. In my clinical work, I’ve found that individuals who report feeling angry or get stuck in an anger spiral often actually feel more hurt than angry, though they try hard to avoid acknowledging the hurt feelings.

3. Telling Yourself That Cash and Prizes, Metaphorically, Are What Will Finally Make You Happy

Not everyone lies to themselves in this way, though this distorted belief is common among many. Given the influence of social media, for example, which can present a manipulated image, societal forces are hard at work in selling a dream and encouraging fantasy—or lies—over reality. While the impulse to believe that getting that new job, the nicer house, or even making a lot more money will finally lead to contentment, such changes rarely lead to true contentment. Accordingly, people often find that once they get to the place they’d told themselves would finally make them happy, it doesn’t really make them much happier.

The effect is a consequence of the lie or the distorted belief. The truth is that emotional success or a sense of true contentment depends on an internal process rather than an external one, meaning that contentment comes from making the best of what resources you have currently and taking appropriate action today rather than fantasy resources you yearn to have in the future.

The Takeaway Message

Self-awareness and personal accountability require honesty, and honesty requires taking daily inventory of one’s true thoughts, feelings, and personal actions. The more conscious one becomes about engaging in responsible, honest behaviors in each moment and in every facet of daily life, the greater improvement one will experience in contentment, goal achievement, and relationship quality.

About the Author

Seth Meyers, Psy.D., is a licensed clinical psychologist, TV guest expert, author, and relationship expert.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/insight-is-2020/202208/the-3-most-common-lies-we-tell-ourselves

Topley’s Top 10 – August 17, 2022

1. Month-over-month Inflation CPI numbers were flat for the first time since the Pandemic Started


2. Two Bullish Technical Signals

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading -But Friday triggered a rare, but quite bullish signal.  >90% of the components in the S&P 500 are now above their 50-day moving average.  “As you can see, these signals take place in strong uptrends historically”

CFRA notes that The S&P 500 Index has recovered half its loss from this year’s historic selloff, eclipsing a key technical threshold that has a 100% track record of calling the end of bear markets and the start of a new bull run.


3. Buffett Updated Portfolio

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway boosted its Apple stake, bet big on energy stocks, and tweaked its bank holdings last quarter-Theron Mohamed Business Insider

Theron Mohamed 

2 hours a

Here’s a pie chart showing the key stocks in Berkshire’s portfolio at the end of June, and how much they were worth at that time:


4. 42 SPAC Deals Cancelled this Year

Burst of Broken SPAC Deals Another Blow to Battered Sector-Bailey Lipschultz

(Bloomberg) — A flurry of terminated deals is hitting the blank-check industry in another signal that the sector is crumbling.

At least four planned mergers between special-purpose acquisition companies and target firms looking to go public have been canceled since the market close on Friday, bringing the year’s tally to 42. The wave of breakups deals a blow to the industry that many believe has gone bust, leaving some investors sitting on paper losses.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/burst-broken-spac-deals-sends-134256535.html


5. August Global Investor Inflows and Outflows….Long Commodities, Cash and Defensives.

Bank America–FMS on asset allocation: FMS positioning still “long stagflation” (commodities, cash, defensives)…

From Zerohedge Blog https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mood-no-longer-apocalyptic-wall-streets-most-accurate-strategist-says-start-shorting-sp-now


6. Profitable Small Cap Companies Outperformance-Dimensional Funds

Dimensional Funds…Report Card

Past performance, including hypothetical performance, is not a guarantee of future results.

https://www.dimensional.com/us-en/insights/small-cap-class-reunion-where-are-they-now?utm_source=linkedin&utm_medium=paid&utm_campaign=&li_fat_id=42016875-07a1-48b2-ab6d-353e0036308d


7. Unemployment Historically Doubles Off Lows During Recession….Instead the U.S. has 5m+ Job Openings

Ben Carlson A couple of months ago I looked at that has happened to the unemployment rate during past recessions: The average increase is more than a doubling off the lows. That would take us to more than 7% from the current 3.5% unemployment rate.

A Wealth of Common Sense Blog

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/08/6-questions-about-the-market-the-economy/


8. Glencore Coal Profits at 10 Year Highs

Bloomberg


9. 


10. 10 Traits of High Sales Performers

By Jeffrey Gitomer |  -I once read about a big benefits-management company that conducted a survey where it asked 365 CEOs and sales-management executives, “What are the three key factors that separate high-performing sales professionals from moderate- to low-performing sales professionals?”

Both CEOs and C-level sales executives (all people who don’t sell, but rely on their salespeople to get paid) ranked self-discipline/motivation as the most important factor.

Next in line were customer knowledge, innate talent/personality and product knowledge. Further down the list were experience and teamwork skills. Totally bogus.

These are qualities of corporate greed, not value, service or help—the three things that customers require to give you their business and maintain loyalty.

If you’re interested in the most important qualities of a high-performing salesperson, let me give you a realistic list of the characteristics needed for success:

Perpetual, consistent positive attitude and enthusiasm

This is the first rule of facing the customer, facing the obstacles, facing the competition, facing the economy and facing yourself.

Belief that the customer will be better off

Unwavering belief in your company, in your product and in yourself are the first three parts. But most critical is that you must believe that the customer is better off having purchased from you.

Use of creativity

Use creativity to present ideas in the customer’s favor and to differentiate yourself from the competition.

Ability to give and prove value

Prove the value of your product or service, as well as your ability to give value to the prospect beyond the sale so you earn the order, the reorder and the loyalty of your customers.

Ability to promote and position

Your use of the internet to blog, create e-zines, utilize social media and achieve top-ranking in Google searches leads customers to perceive you as a value-provider and a leader in your field.

Exciting, compelling presentation skills

You must develop not just solid communication skills, but superior questioning skills, listening skills and a sense of humor, as well as the innate ability to capture the imagination (and the wallet) of customers.

Ability to prove your value and claims through the testimony of others

Testimonials sell where salespeople can’t. The best salespeople use video testimonials to support their claims. But you don’t get testimonials; you earn them. Same with referrals.

Ability to create an atmosphere where people want to buy (because they hate being sold)

This is done by engaging and asking, not presenting and telling. Make your customers feel as if you are working with them to find them the best product possible, not just telling them what you think would be best.

Ability to build a relationship, not hunt or farm

I wonder if the executives talking about the factors of great salespeople are the same one who are dividing their salespeople into hunters and farmers. Great salespeople are relationship-builders who provide value and help their customers win. They possess unyielding personal values and ethics. It’s interesting that 365 executives don’t deem those qualities to be in the top 10.

The personal desire to excel and be their best

This is a desired quality of every salesperson, but the best salespeople have mastered the other 10 elements. And the key is that all 10 must be mastered in order for this quality to manifest itself.

There is no prize in sales for second place. It’s win or nothing. The masters know this and strive for—fight for—that winning edge.

This article was published in February 2010 and has been updated. Photo by Krakenimages.com/Shutterstock

Jeffrey Gitomer

Topley’s Top 10 – August 15, 2022

1. 75% OF S&P Beat Earnings…Companies that Reported Below Consensus Saw Stock Rise

Bill Stone Glenview–One of the more fascinating anomalies from this earnings season was companies reporting earnings below consensus estimates rising rather than falling. As one would expect, companies posting earnings below estimates typically decline. According to FactSet, companies missing estimates are unchanged this season, while those exceeding estimates gained 2.1%. While the anomaly has faded from the extreme levels to start the season, it is still evidence that the market is focusing on forward guidance more than usual due to the high level of inflation and the precarious state of the economy.

S&P 500 Earnings Season GLENVIEW TRUST, FACTSET

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bill_stone/2022/08/07/second-quarter-earnings-season-coming-to-a-close-with-energy-as-the-catalyst/?sh=2d1d7b48ef13


2. And Earnings Downgrades Slowing

https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-august-12th-2022/


3. Retail Investors Held Tight During 2022 Stock Market Correction

Marketwatch-U.S. households now own roughly 52% of the stock market. And a look at three major market plunges since 2000 (see chart) shows that equities only bottomed a few quarters after significant selling activity from households occurred.  By

Joy Wiltermuth

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/have-stocks-bottomed-not-until-this-gorilla-in-equity-markets-budges-warns-bofa-11660239363?mod=home-page


4. AGG Bond Index Duration Hit All-Time Highs Before Pullback

The combined effect has pushed the rate sensitivity of the Agg to all-time highs while bond holders are receiving historically low yields.

https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright


5. Historically…High and Falling Inflation Positive for Emerging Markets

JP Morgan

https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI5N2vv8nG-QIVQsLCBB228gBeEAAYASAAEgIiDfD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds


6. If You Believe in Seasonality….Weak Spot in Next Few Months Followed by Rally

Callum Thomas Chart Storm-Worth noting that we are still in the middle of a seasonally sketchy part of the year (/election cycle) — from Stock Trader’s Almanac: “seasonal/cycle outlook is for a lower low or retest of the lows over the next three months as we are in the worst two months of the year and are smack dab in the *Weak Spot* of the 4-Year Cycle”

Source:  @AlmanacTrader

https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-14-august


7. What History Tells Us About Markets Coming Out of Bear

https://www.linkedin.com/in/johnburns7/


8. Follow Up From Last Weeks Home Equity Comments…..Opposite of 2008…It’s an Equity Rich Market

Almost Half of Mortgaged Homes in US Now Considered Equity-Rich

Source: Bloomberg

From Barry Ritholtz Blog https://ritholtz.com/2022/08/10-friday-am-reads-377/


9. Fewer Chinese College Students Coming to the U.S.

In 2015, almost 275,000 visas were granted to Chinese students to come and study in the US. Since then, however, the numbers have dropped precipitously, with new data out this week showing that just 31,055 F-1 visas were granted to Chinese students in the first half of this year. That’s less than 50% of the number granted in 2019 for the same time period.

Skipping class

Chinese students ditching American higher education is a concern for schools that have come to rely on the income from international students who usually pay substantially higher out-of-state tuition fees.

How much of the drop is down to rising tensions between the countries, visa rule changes or lasting impacts of the pandemic is unclear, but there has been a definitive shift in attitudes amongst prospective students. A survey in 2015 found that 51% of Chinese students cited the US as their top destination for study — a similar survey from last year found just 30% said the same.

www.chartr.com


10. The Huge Obstacle of Feeling Foolish-Farnam Street Blog

Tiny Thought-A huge obstacle to success is a fear of appearing foolish.

When we learn to walk, we fall over and over again until we can do it. We look foolish until the minute we don’t. That is how we learn. As adults we often tell ourselves that failing in front of other people is bad, so we don’t try things that might make us look foolish.

During boom times, people who aggressively went all in appear to be prospering and make a more financially stable approach seem foolish. Only those who were properly positioned, however, can take advantage when the boom ends.

So much advantage in life comes from being willing to look foolish in the short term.

https://fs.blog

Topley’s Top 10 – August 10, 2022

1. The Meme Stocks +21% in a Month

MEME ETF


2. Traditional Yield Curve Already Inverted =Gap Between 2 Year and 10 Year Treasury….The Gap below is Arguably A Better Timing Mechanism.

FRED CHARTS –10 Year Minus 3-Month Treasury About to Invert.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/


3. However Credit Spreads are Not Blowing Out.

What does it mean when credit spreads are widening?

A widening bond credit spread typically suggests worsening economic conditions and higher overall risk

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading–Stay Focused on Credit Spreads – CarsonGroup notes Various spreads continue to tighten, not blow out. A potential nice sign for both the economy and stock market.


4. Watch Small Caps …They Lead Out of Bear Markets

Small cap stocks traded down to 2008 P/E levels prior to July Rally

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright


5. Buffett 20% Position OXY Occidental Petroleum …YTD OXY +118% vs. XLE energy etf +35%

www.yahoofinance.com


6. NVIDIA -55% Correction …

NVDA feeling crypto winter …still holding above 200 week moving average

www.stockcharts.com


7. 60/40 Portfolio holds above 200 week moving average.

Red long-term trendline holding in classic 60/40


8. ETHE-Ethereum Closed End Fund Holds Covid Lows.

ETHE-bounces before 2020 lows

www.stockcharts.com


9. CPI +9% vs. Wage Growth +5%

@Charlie Bilello Filling the Inflationary Gap US Wages increased 5.2% over the last year while consumer prices (CPI) rose 9.1% and Rents increased more than 12%.

​Powered by YCharts


10. Visionary Leadership-Visionary Leadership Has 3 Characteristics You Want to Find and Follow

BY SUZANNE LUCAS When you think about visionary leadership, you may think of someone like George Washington, who led a war against the British to establish a new nation, or Mahatma Gandhi, who also revolted against the British, but in a very different way. Both men saw that a new vision of governing was possible and set out to achieve it—and they did.

With this historical perspective and pressure, you may think that visionary leadership is rare and certainly not something an average person can have. But, visionary leadership doesn’t have to be world-changing. You may already have visionary leadership and not even know it.

What is Visionary Leadership?

A visionary leader is an individual who sees the potential for how the world should exist and then takes steps to get there. You can achieve visionary without a leadership role—become an idea guy, for instance. And, you can successfully lead people to accomplish a course of action, while not having a vision for the change you’d like to create.

These two abilities combined—the ability to see the potential for change combined with the ability to lead others creates a visionary leader. If you want to become a visionary leader (or work for one) here are the three main characteristics you want to actively strive to develop or find.

Risk-Taking

Change is never risk-free. And it’s rare that the solutions will come immediately. George Washington didn’t trounce the British in the first battle. Defeating the British took years. It took sacrifice, the sacrifice of many people who were committed to the vision of self-governance and freedom from English control.1

You don’t need to put your life on the line—Steve Jobs and Jeff Bezos slept comfortably at night over the years—but you may need to put your livelihood on the line. Jobs was fired from his own company. Visionary leadership is all about change and change means risk-taking.

Listening

Contrary to popular opinion, a visionary leader doesn’t just go forth ignoring all the naysayers and do what he or she thinks is best. Yes, you will find that there are a lot of naysayers that you need to ignore, but you also have to listen to what people are saying.

This makes the difference between the big idea guy and the visionary leader. If you’re not willing to listen and accept advice, look at how the market is changing, and take feedback seriously, you won’t succeed. It’s fine to say, “No, I’ve considered all of those possibilities and I’m still moving forward with my idea.” But, if you haven’t considered the other possibilities, you’re setting yourself up for failure.

A good leader hears the voices of your team members. And your team needs to feel heard by their leader. You aren’t a real leader unless people follow you voluntarily, and for that to happen, your team members need to feel heard out and listened to by you.

Takes Responsibility

A visionary leader knows that his or her ideas are different and are a significant risk and the people that follow such a leader are also taking a chance in doing so. So, it’s critical that you take responsibility for your actions and your vision.

This is not only when events go poorly—it’s also to make sure that they don’t go poorly in the first place. The leader is responsible for ensuring that the finances are available to pay people and keep the project moving forward. You must ensure that you treat people fairly.

Remember, having a vision is much like having a child. You would do anything and sacrifice everything for your child, but when you want anyone else to participate in raising that child, you have to pay them. A vision is the same: you cannot expect your team to sacrifice like you are willing to do. It’s not their vision; it’s yours.

A visionary leader can become a great force in changing the world or the industry in which they work, but this leadership and participation aren’t always necessary. Sometimes you need a leader who just keeps people enthused about staying on the same path. But, when you need change, you often need a person with a vision.

Visionaries look at the status quo and see how they can make the situation different, instead of just making the current situation better. After all, George Washington didn’t set out to make a better relationship with King George. He set out to sever that relationship. And that vision made all the difference for the United States.

https://www.thebalancecareers.com/visionary-leadership-4174279

Topley’s Top 10 – August 09, 2022

1. Positive and Negative Earnings Surprises.

 “With over 71% of S&P 500 companies finished reporting revenues and earnings for Q2-2021, the revenue and earnings surprises are at their lowest levels since the pandemic recovery began. Revenues are beating the consensus forecast by 2.5%, and earnings have exceeded estimates by 5.6%.”  –Ed Yardeni

Consider the Yardeni chart (top) showing earning surprises: Despite a variety of economic and geopolitical negatives, earnings have been holding up relatively well. (Revenues, too). And given that we are just about 3/4s of the way through Q2 earnings season, the odds of further surprises tend to drift lower (the bigger upside/downside surprises tend to pre-announce). by Barry Ritholtz

https://ritholtz.com/2022/08/surprise-not-many/


2. Average S&P 500 Return Following Yield Curve Inversion

The Daily Shot Blog The average total return for the S&P 500 the year following a yield curve inversion is almost 10%. Will we witness a similar outcome?

Source: Denise Chisholm, Fidelity Investments

https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-august-5th-2022/


3. Investors Still Max Bearish

BofA Bull & Bear Indicator remains at “0” – Max Bearish

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading.


4. Hedge Funds Using Futures to Bet Against Stocks and Bonds

@AlessioUrban


5. China’s Next Credit Crisis After Real Estate…..Lending to Distressed Countries

For China, the war implies yet another increase in the exposure of its overseas loan portfolio towards debtor countries at risk of default. China’s exposure towards distressed debtors had started its upward march as early as the mid-2010s, when Venezuela defaulted on its debts. Default risks intensified and spread geographically with the pandemic, when more and more developing economies entered distress; almost 60% of low-income countries are now in debt distress or at high risk.2 As a result, China’s state banks now hold a large amount of potentially ‘distressed’ debt. Figure 1 shows the share of China’s total credit portfolio to borrowing countries in distress, which has increased from about 5% in 2010 to 60% at present. The figure traces the share of cumulative overseas lending that has been extended to countries currently in debt distress or involved in a war. 

Figure 1 Share of Chinese loan claims to borrowers in distress

Sebastian Horn, Carmen Reinhart, Christoph Trebesch  08 April 2022

https://voxeu.org/article/china-s-overseas-lending-and-war-ukraine


6. 40 Nations at Risk of Default and Renegotiating Under Way

Nikhil Kumar, Deputy Global Editor, and Lili Pike, China Reporter

https://www.grid.news/story/global/2022/08/02/debt-bomb-risks-more-than-40-nations-are-at-risk-of-default-and-thats-a-problem-for-us-all/


7. However…China IPO Market Trounces the World With Record $58 Billion Boom

Bloomberg) — From London to Hong Kong, large initial share sales have all but dried up across the world’s major financial centers this year. But the market in China is bustling with activity.

Initial public offerings on mainland exchanges have climbed to $57.8 billion so far in 2022, the largest ever for such a period, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. There have been five IPOs of above $1 billion since January, and one more is on the way. That’s versus just one such sale each in New York and Hong Kong, and none in London.

China’s IPO market has defied headwinds such as rising interest rates and fears of a US recession, which have brought major equity fundraising elsewhere to a virtual standstill. Offerings in the Asian economy — whose monetary policy is diverging from the Federal Reserve — are largely geared toward local investors.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-ipo-market-trounces-world-000000330.html


8. After 4 Straight Quarterly Declines…Non-Profit Tech Stocks Bounce

Liz Ann Sonders Schwab

https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders


9. Which States Have the Death Penalty ?

According to the Death Penalty Information Center, capital punishment is on the books in 27 states but several don’t actually carry it out.

ou will find more infographics at Statista

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/which-states-have-death-penalty


10. Be Patient and Tolerant-The Daily Stoic

There are things a leader—particularly in times of success—can get away with. There are also things that people, generally, can get away with when no one is looking, or when we think there won’t be consequences. And yet most of us don’t do these things. We try, as best we can, to observe that Stoic virtue of temperance, of moderation.

Marcus Aurelius certainly did.

He held incredible power. His predecessors had treated the Senate and the laws as mere formalities. They treated Rome’s treasury as their personal purse. They treated other human beings as pawns to use and abuse. Imagine the discipline and rectitude it took for Marcus (a guy who didn’t even want the job in the first place), to be so strict with himself about what he would and wouldn’t do as emperor.

Now, also imagine how frustrating he must have found it to see other leaders operate with much lower standards. They had so much less power—so far from absolute—and yet it corrupted them absolutely. They had less means…and somehow more vices.

This is a common thing. You’ve probably experienced it in your own life. It’s baffling, exasperating. You tell yourself: I would never allow myself to get away with that. Then you wonder: How can they live with themselves? But be careful: this self-righteous indignation can eat you up if you’re not fully in control of it.

Marcus had to work very hard to be strict with himself, but tolerant with others. If he hadn’t, he’d have been consumed by resentment, disappointment and despair. Not everyone was as strong as him, just as not everyone is as strong as you. Not everyone has had the training, not everyone has been enlightened to the right principles. This is why they fall short. This is why they try to get away with things. This is how they live with themselves.

All you can do is be patient and tolerant. All you can do is keep being you. All you can do is keep doing the right thing, for no other reason than it’s the right thing.

https://dailystoic.com

Topley’s Top 10 – August 05, 2022

1. Annual IPOs 2000-2022

From Stockanalysis.com


2. Comparing 2021 to 2022 IPOs….

https://stockanalysis.com/ipos/statistics/


3. IPO ETF….Formed a Base Last 6 Months

www.stockcharts.com


4. Solar ETF +50% Plus from Lows

TAN Solar ETF $56 to $86  May to August

www.stockcharts.com


5. Global Supply Chain Pressure Index Falls to Feb 2021 Lows

Sam Ro @samro The New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index1 — a composite of various supply chain indicators — fell in July to its lowest level since February 2021, meaning supply chains are easing.

From Abnormal Returns Blog https://abnormalreturns.com/2022/08/04/thursday-links-methodical-implementation/


6. The Legendary Story of Paul Volcker Ending Inflation with 15% 10 Year Treasury…..Stock Bear Market was Over in 4 Months

From Michael Batnick Irrelevant Investor

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2022/08/03/animal-spirits-invest-in-what-you-know/


7. Mortgage rates fall below 5%

Emily Peck, author of Axios Markets

Axios on facebook

Axios on twitter

Axios on linkedin

Axios on email

Data: Freddie Mac; Chart: Axios Visuals

If you’re in the market for a house — maybe hurry to get your loan.

Driving the news: Mortgage rates are still high, but the rate on the 30-year just saw its steepest weekly drop since March 2020, and is now below 5%.

  • It was as high as 5.81% on June 23.

What’s up: Markets got a little cocky — believing the Federal Reserve’s steep rate hike days were waning, as Axios’ Neil Irwin wrote.

  • That sent Treasuries lower — and mortgages followed.

But, but, but: The respite may not last.

  • Mortgage rates will keep bouncing around for a while, said Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association. “I think we’re going to continue to be in this unsettled condition until we get a clear move downward on inflation.”

https://www.axios.com/2022/08/04/mortgage-rates-daily-fed


8. ‘It’s hard to find anyone who is willing to work’: Home builders reveal 5 reasons why the cost of your dream house has soared

Marketwatch  Aarthi Swaminathan

Despite the shortage of housing in the U.S., it’s been challenging for builders to quickly ramp up production to meet demand.

That’s because of a variety of factors — from navigating lumber tariffs to a shortage of labor. And with interest and mortgage rates rising, on top of inflation making building materials more expensive, homebuilder sentiment has plunged, as would-be buyers take a pause.

To illustrate the five key drivers that influence homebuilders, the National Association of Home Builders’ chief economist Robert Dietz shared a list of the “5 L’s” of homebuilding with MarketWatch.

Every single one of these factors is presenting a challenge to builders at the moment, and that in turn is putting pressures on homebuyers, renters and others caught up in America’s housing sector.

Labor

It’s tough to find construction workers. So much so that one Harvard expert said the solution to fixing the shortage was to entice more women to join the construction sector, and to reform immigration laws so more immigrants could get construction jobs, too.

The construction industry needs about 650,000 more workers on top of the normal pace of hiring to meet demand this year, according to analysis by Associated Builders and Contractors.

In 2023, the industry will need 590,000 more new workers to keep pace with demand, even after assuming construction spending growth slows.

“Labor is a bloodbath,” Brian Tucker, who owns Tucco Home Improvements in Peyton, Colorado. His company does contracting and remodeling work.

“It’s hard to find anyone who is willing to work, and even then, it’s $30 an hour,” Tucker added, “which is not feasible for hauling drywall out of homes.”

Lumber (and other materials)

Lumber prices remain elevated. They’ve been on a wild ride over the last year, hitting new highs and then plunging sharply. But overall, the increase in softwood lumber prices have added $14,345 to the price tag of the average new single-family home, the NAHB estimated in a blog post, and $5,511 to the market value of an average new apartment.

If you’re renting, your household’s paying an additional $51 a month in rent for your new apartment, thanks to lumber.

Lending

Interest rates affect homebuilders’ and developers’ borrowing costs. And with the Federal Reserve hiking rates four times since March, that’ll increase expenses for builders, on top of homeowners.

“Higher rates affect supply and demand,” Dietz said.

“The demand impact is obvious,” he added. Higher mortgage rates are pushing would-be homeowners to wait on buying a home. That’s also affecting demand, which in turn, slows homebuilders’ businesses. The average rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 5.3% for the week ending July 28, according to Freddie Mac.

But higher interest rates also “means the cost of builder and developer loans increase, which make it more expensive to develop land and build homes,” Dietz stressed. “People often forget this.”

Laws

Regulations — from zoning approvals to fees to labor requirements — can also add to builders’ costs. The NAHB in May estimated that regulations imposed by the government added roughly $94,000 to the final price of a new single-family home built for sale.

There’s also the issue of NIMBYism, where locals resist new development for fear of increased traffic, pollution and other concerns, which also limits where homebuilders can start new construction.

 

The increase in softwood lumber prices has added $14,345 to the price tag of the average new single-family home, the NAHB estimated.

 

The nation is short on homes. But it hasn’t always been this way, which most Americans know.

Christopher Herbert, managing director of Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies, recalled in an interview with MarketWatch that in 2006, homebuilders built more homes than needed.

But after the Great Recession, the regulatory environment shifted. Jurisdictions became more restrictive, and  “there’s a lot more caution on the financing side,” he explained.

Lots/land

Lastly, builders need developed lots to build on, but there’s been a shortage of that. Last October, in an NAHB survey, 76% of builders reported that the overall supply of developed lots in their areas was low to very low, which was an all-time record.

In its July survey of builders, the group also found that 13% of builders said they were cutting home prices in June to bolster sales, or to stem the flow of cancellations.

Write to MarketWatch reporter Aarthi Swaminathan at aarthi@marketwatch.com   https://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-factors-drive-homebuilding-costs-and-every-single-one-is-squeezing-builders-right-now-11659126505?mod=home-page


9. Deal Book-Doing the Math on the Inflation Reduction Act

The bill involves at least $260 billion in spending over 10 years, with a focus on energy and climate, but it would raise taxes by more than that, a congressional analysis found.

By Andrew Ross Sorkin, Vivian Giang, Stephen Gandel, Lauren Hirsch, Ephrat Livni and David F. Gallagher

How it adds up–Soon after he entered the White House, President Biden announced a $4 trillion domestic spending agenda. More than a year later, the chunk of that plan that appears most likely to pass — the result of an agreement struck last week between Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the majority leader, and Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, a centrist Democrat — will be considerably smaller.

The bill, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, involves at least $260 billion in spending over 10 years, but it would also raise taxes by $326 billion in the same period. That’s according to an analysis by the Joint Committee on Taxation, a nonpartisan congressional commission. A separate analysis, released on Friday by the Wharton School, found that the bill would have almost no effect on G.D.P., and would slightly increase inflation for the next two years but then lead to lower prices.

Republicans have denounced the bill as a giant tax increase and a major expansion of government spending. But the new estimates suggest that it is neither of those things, reports The Times’s Jim Tankersley.

Here’s what’s in the bill (all of the figures are over 10 years, and most come from the Joint Committee’s study):

  • Tax credits to increase production of electricity from renewable or non-carbon sources. Cost: $98 billion.
  • New and expanded tax credits for electric vehicle purchases and for improving the energy efficiency of homes. Cost: $51 billion.
  • An incentive and tax credit for companies developing biofuels and other renewable fuels for cars and planes. Cost: $19 billion.
  • New and expanded subsidies to bring down the cost of buying health insurance through the Affordable Care Act. Cost: $70 billion, according to the Wharton analysis.

How it raises taxes and lowers costs:

  • Imposes a new federal minimum income tax of 15 percent, based on the profits that companies report to investors, not just to the I.R.S. Tax increase: $313 billion.
  • Closes the so-called carried interest tax loophole that allows private equity and hedge fund managers to pay lower taxes on some compensation. Tax increase: $13 billion.
  • Allows the government to negotiate and in some cases set prescription drug prices for people enrolled in Medicare. Estimated savings: $266 billion, according to Wharton’s analysis.

To secure the deal, Democrats had to make some concessions that are likely to displease environmental activists, The Times’s Brad Plumer and Lisa Friedman report.

  • The bill would require the Interior Department to hold lease sales for oil and gas exploration in the Gulf of Mexico and the Cook Inlet in Alaska.
  • It expands tax credits for carbon capture technology that could allow coal or gas-burning power plants to keep operating with lower emissions.
  • Manchin also secured a promise from Democratic leaders to vote on a separate measure to speed up the permit process for energy infrastructure, potentially smoothing the way for projects like a gas pipeline in West Virginia.

“We just made a deal with Joe Manchin,” said Senator Brian Schatz, Democrat of Hawaii, who had pushed for more expansive climate provisions. “I don’t think anybody should have expected that this is the bill I would have written.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/02/business/dealbook/inflation-reduction-act-analysis.html

 


10. Happy Birthday, Brain Pickings: 7 Things I Learned in 7 Years of Reading, Writing, and Living

BY MARIA POPOVA

  1. Allow yourself the uncomfortable luxury of changing your mind. Cultivate that capacity for “negative capability.” We live in a culture where one of the greatest social disgraces is not having an opinion, so we often form our “opinions” based on superficial impressions or the borrowed ideas of others, without investing the time and thought that cultivating true conviction necessitates. We then go around asserting these donned opinions and clinging to them as anchors to our own reality. It’s enormously disorienting to simply say, “I don’t know.” But it’s infinitely more rewarding to understand than to be right — even if that means changing your mind about a topic, an ideology, or, above all, yourself.
  2. Do nothing for prestige or status or money or approval alone. As Paul Graham observed, “prestige is like a powerful magnet that warps even your beliefs about what you enjoy. It causes you to work not on what you like, but what you’d like to like.” Those extrinsic motivators are fine and can feel life-affirming in the moment, but they ultimately don’t make it thrilling to get up in the morning and gratifying to go to sleep at night — and, in fact, they can often distract and detract from the things that do offer those deeper rewards.
  3. Be generous. Be generous with your time and your resources and with giving credit and, especially, with your words. It’s so much easier to be a critic than a celebrator. Always remember there is a human being on the other end of every exchange and behind every cultural artifact being critiqued. To understand and be understood, those are among life’s greatest gifts, and every interaction is an opportunity to exchange them.
  4. Build pockets of stillness into your life. Meditate. Go for walks. Ride your bike going nowhere in particular. There is a creative purpose to daydreaming, even to boredom. The best ideas come to us when we stop actively trying to coax the muse into manifesting and let the fragments of experience float around our unconscious mind in order to click into new combinations. Without this essential stage of unconscious processing, the entire flow of the creative process is broken.

Most importantly, sleep. Besides being the greatest creative aphrodisiac, sleep also affects our every waking moment, dictates our social rhythm, and even mediates our negative moods. Be as religious and disciplined about your sleep as you are about your work. We tend to wear our ability to get by on little sleep as some sort of badge of honor that validates our work ethic. But what it really is is a profound failure of self-respect and of priorities. What could possibly be more important than your health and your sanity, from which all else springs?

  1. When people tell you who they are, Maya Angelou famously advised, believe them. Just as importantly, however, when people try to tell you who you are, don’t believe them. You are the only custodian of your own integrity, and the assumptions made by those that misunderstand who you are and what you stand for reveal a great deal about them and absolutely nothing about you.
  2. Presence is far more intricate and rewarding an art than productivity. Ours is a culture that measures our worth as human beings by our efficiency, our earnings, our ability to perform this or that. The cult of productivity has its place, but worshipping at its altar daily robs us of the very capacity for joy and wonder that makes life worth living — for, as Annie Dillard memorably put it, “how we spend our days is, of course, how we spend our lives.”
  3. “Expect anything worthwhile to take a long time.” This is borrowed from the wise and wonderful Debbie Millman, for it’s hard to better capture something so fundamental yet so impatiently overlooked in our culture of immediacy. The myth of the overnight success is just that — a myth — as well as a reminder that our present definition of success needs serious retuning. As I’ve reflected elsewhere, the flower doesn’t go from bud to blossom in one spritely burst and yet, as a culture, we’re disinterested in the tedium of the blossoming. But that’s where all the real magic unfolds in the making of one’s character and destiny.

https://www.themarginalian.org/2013/10/23/7-lessons-from-7-years/

Topley’s Top 10 – August 03, 2022

1. Gas Prices Down 50 Days in a Row-GasBuddy

https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts


2. Two Charts From Callum Thomas Sum Up Summer 2022….Insiders Buying vs. Consumer Hating Stocks

Insider Buying: Insiders busily scooping up bargains*

(*at least relative to the crazy valuations in 2021)

Source:  @jaykaeppel


3. Consumers hate stocks

Looking at the chart, they got it right in 2009, but patchy otherwise, mostly a contrarian bullish signal. Does go to show though the steady transition in mood as the macro backdrop got worse and worse this year.

Source:  @sentimentrader via @LanceRoberts

https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-31-july


4. Annualized Growth in Areas of Inflation

Blackrock

“Retail are buying Bitcoin at the fastest rate in history,” Marcus Sotiriou, an analyst at digital asset broker GlobalBlock, wrote in a late July note. 

One sign that U.S. investors are particularly crypto-hungry is the Coinbase Premium Gap, which measures the difference between Bitcoin prices quoted on Coinbase Global (ticker: COIN) and those on Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange. Since Coinbase is mostly popular in the U.S., the gap—tracked by data firm CryptoQuant—can be read as an indicator of how crypto demand among American investors stacks up relative to those in the rest of the world.

As recently as July 12, there was a $25 per Bitcoin discount on Coinbase compared to Binance, but as the month wore on the discount turned into a premium for the first time in months. By July 31, investors on U.S.-based Coinbase were paying a $14 per Bitcoin premium to scoop up the token, the highest premium since the crypto was changing hands around $40,000.

Other evidence supports the notion that it is primarily smaller traders who have swung in to buy Bitcoin while it has been trading at its lowest point since 2020. The total supply of Bitcoin in the largest 1% of accounts decreased to 17.32 million from 17.34 million across the month of July, according to crypto market intelligence firm Messari. By contrast, the supply of Bitcoin in accounts with more than $10,000 increased from 18.2 million to 18.4 million in July.

“The 90-day change in Bitcoin addresses with less than 1 coin (typically retail) is at record highs. The last time it was close to this high was in 2018 when Bitcoin peaked at around $20,000,” noted Sotiriou from GlobalBlock. “The fact that a similar rate of accumulation is happening now after a 70% drop demonstrates conviction from retail holders in Bitcoin’s long-term value.”

The same trend is mirrored in the crypto derivatives market, which accounts for two-thirds of exchange-traded digital asset volumes, according to CryptoCompare. In the U.S., Bitcoin futures are particularly popular among institutional investors, because these products are traded on the CME and regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The CME offers two types of Bitcoin futures: A standard contract which is valued at 5 Bitcoin, or more than $115,000 at current prices; and a micro contract valued at 10% of 1 Bitcoin, or about $2,300. The former contract is more popular with institutional investors, while the latter is geared more towards a retail crowd.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-rebound-small-investors-51659547555?mod=hp_LEAD_1


5. FED Already Back to Neutral

JP Morgan Private Wealth–The second is that we are probably closer to the end of the Fed’s rate hiking cycle than the beginning. The Fed acknowledged this backdrop of slowing growth in its policy statement. And while its primary focus is still on getting inflation back to target, in the press conference, it hinted that the worst of the tightening cycle is probably over. Two ideas help support this view.

The first is that the Fed thinks it is close to “neutral,” or the theoretical interest rate that neither stimulates nor restricts economic activity. This is important because a guiding principle for this tightening cycle has been to get to neutral as quickly as possible.

https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/gl/en/insights/investing/tmt/so-are-we-in-a-recession?pid=&programName=20220729-NAM-ES-INV-Top%20Market%20Takeaways&utm_source=email-pb&utm_medium=Other-NA&utm_campaign=%20UPDATE%20WITH%20DATE%20OF%20SEND%20(Format:%20YYYYMMDD)TMT&utm_content=CTA&mkt_tok=MzkyLUhLQy04NzYAAAGF6gkE0vXYVqWbNuokG4BxJtJabttLuJdFwJmIsKF2mEELzmMQGcEf9GWTlbSTQzWf5nJE_CtQ7UA_d_Q0gMc94P6IaNKq1VvV0np8yiOr5CiDNQ


6. Russia is Europe’s biggest energy supplier – but the US is sending more gas by boat than Russia is by pipeline

Phil Rosen 

  • The US is now sending more gas to Europe by ship than Russia is sending by pipeline, per the Wall Street Journal. 
  • In July, US liquefied natural gas accounted for 13% of total supply to Europe, compared to 10% from Russian pipelines. 
  • Conflict in Ukraine shows no signs of easing, and the US has stepped in to help the EU amid a historic energy crisis

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has redirected energy deliveries around the world, and one result has been that the US is now sending more gas to Europe by boat than Russia is by pipeline, ICIS data shows, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Since 1967, Gazprom’s pipelines in West Siberia and the Yamal peninsula have delivered huge amounts of gas to Europe but that precedent has been turned on its head in recent months.

In July, US liquefied natural gas accounted for 13% of total supply to Europe, compared to 10% from Russian pipelines. Pipelines from Norway were the top source of gas to the continent, while other sources include North African pipelines and Qatar liquefied natural gas supplies, as well as domestic production. 

Over the last six months, European wholesale gas prices have tripled as Moscow continues to tighten natural gas flows. State-run Gazprom, citing technical issues, cut Nord Stream 1 natural gas deliveries to Germany to 20% down from 40%.

The European Commission said that 12 member states are enduring severely reduced flows and a handful of nations have been entirely cut off. Just this week, Gazprom halted natural gas deliveries to Latvia. 

Now, the continent has turned to importing more Russian diesel amid its struggle to wean off other energy supplies from the country. Imports of Russian diesel are up 23% from a year ago, Vortexa data shows.

With conflict in Ukraine showing no signs of easing and the EU facing a historical energy crisis, the US has stepped in as an emergency energy supplier. 

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/europe-natural-gas-us-boats-russia-pipeline-nord-stream-energy-2022-8

7. BABA-Alibaba Reports Tonight.

BABA-sold off back to lows…see if it holds tonight

www.stockcharts.com


8. Glencore Pays Out $4.45 Billion as Coal Drives Record Profit

Thomas Biesheuvel

(Bloomberg) — Glencore Plc will return an additional $4.45 billion to shareholders in dividends and share buybacks after first-half profit more than doubled to a record thanks to surging coal prices.

Glencore, the world’s top coal shipper, has been one of the biggest winners from the global energy crunch as demand surges for fossil fuels. The company’s sprawling trading business has also cashed in on dramatic price swings across markets from metals to oil following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/glencore-pay-4-45-billion-060201404.html

www.stockcharts.com


9. America’s Brewery Boom

Found at Zerohedge

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/visualizing-americas-brewery-boom


10. How to Work with a Manipulative Person

by Liz Kislik

Summary.   What does it take to work with an office manipulator? In this piece, the author offers three strategies for dealing with a manipulator at work: First, be skeptical about receiving too much special attention from them. Manipulators don’t usually show their true colors at…more

Almost everyone who’s ever gone to work has had to deal with an office manipulator. Unfortunately, most employees hesitate to go public with their concerns. And with good reason: Even if they do, typical corporate responses range from wary or dismissive to actually retaliating against the victim, rather than the wrongdoer.

Unfortunately, many workplaces promote manipulators because they appear to be effective at getting things done, despite the significant costs their abuse can inflict on productivity and people over time. Particularly when you can’t get the hierarchy or other authorities to intervene on your behalf, it helps to have your own approaches for coping, short of legal action.

Over almost 30 years of consulting, I’ve encountered countless examples of manipulation, bullying, and inappropriate use of power. Three kinds of responses have proven to be consistently effective for confronting most garden-variety manipulators, even if you have less rank, power, or status. At a minimum, they’ll help you assert yourself and regain a sense of control rather than suffering in silence while you figure out your long-term plan.

First, be skeptical about receiving too much special attention. Manipulators don’t usually show their true colors at the beginning of a relationship. In fact, they often present themselves as allies or confidantes, because they need to draw you close to size up where your soft spots are and how much they can get from you. They’re skilled at assessing which employees are sophisticated and confident enough to stand on their own and which ones are eager to please or easy to shame.

It’s exciting if a powerful colleague or superior seems interested in you, but if you’ve heard scary things about them, it’s sensible to proceed with caution. In particular, note if someone treats you as their favorite — but includes little digs that make you feel bad about yourself, puts you down when talking with others, or pressures you to act against your own interests to stay on their good side.

One C-level executive I worked with was hurt by a colleague who claimed to be her supporter and good friend but constantly pointed out imperfections and mistakes in a way that seemed helpful at first but eventually undercut her confidence. Over time, she began to doubt her own instincts and started acting like the manipulative colleague’s sidekick rather than championing her own causes.

By the time the weaker executive recognized what was going on, she had trouble separating herself from her colleague and lost a significant amount of status and clout with her peers. Her credibility and self-image were shaken, and she was not able to regain her footing or influence until she left the company.

Second, be willing to risk small public confrontations. Sometimes the only way to expose a manipulator’s maneuverings is by confronting them in the moment. It can be hard to do this if you’re the junior party. Even senior people can be stunned into disbelief, or might be unable to think of what to say when someone is subverting normal standards of behavior and fair play, despite the organizational damage they know is being done. So when someone has both the moxie and the wit to intervene, it puts the manipulator on notice that their behavior has been detected, and it shows observers that it’s possible to intervene and keep others safe while moving the business forward.

During one client meeting I attended, an executive was making a report by phone while the rest of the leadership team was physically present. At one point, a vice president who had an extremely self-serving and manipulative reputation raised his eyebrows in apparent surprise, shook his head repeatedly, and at the end shrugged, as if to indicate to his peers in the room that he either didn’t agree with what his colleague was saying or didn’t understand why he was saying it — all without him saying a word.

The vice president on the phone had no idea that his credibility and content were being disparaged. I asked the manipulator directly: “Was there something you wanted to add? You looked like you disagreed strongly with what we just heard. Did you want to counter either the conclusion or any of the specifics, or are you comfortable with the report?”

The vice president in the room denied having any disagreement, but he was clearly uncomfortable at being put on the spot and could no longer lord it over or cast aspersions on his colleague. And his colleague was tipped off to the possibility that he had been undermined.

Third, refuse to keep secrets or to act as interpreter in ways that normalize underhanded behavior. Instead, be direct and straightforward and hold your ground. These schemers may treat you like a trusted insider, feeding you tidbits about other people’s inadequacies and failures, as if only you have the perspective and discretion to understand what’s important. Don’t be taken in by the implied flattery. Ask for details and specifics to flush out their intent: “I’m not sure I understand what you mean. Why are you telling me this? What is it you’re asking me to do?”

In another client company, I worked with a leader who was uncomfortable with direct conflict and who tried to get other people — including me — to convey messages that she was afraid to deliver. Rather than letting her hide her criticisms behind others, I would say things like, “You’ve been clear that you don’t like how James handled his team’s conflict. I’ll be happy to meet with you and James so that you can explain your concern, and then I can work with him on managing his team.” Now that she understands her own behavior pattern and has received support to change, she’s far less likely to offload uncomfortable situations to others.

If your position is senior to the manipulator’s, the most effective thing is to begin a rigorous plan of corrective action promptly, using approaches such as these and providing concrete behavioral feedback until they either drop their inappropriate habits or you remove them. And if you hold less power or influence, these three approaches will help you protect yourself and minimize their negative impact both on you and on the rest of the organization, for as long as you’re willing to stay in the game.

https://hbr.org/2017/11/how-to-work-with-a-manipulative-person?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=hbr&utm_source=LinkedIn&tpcc=orgsocial_edit

Topley’s Top 10 – August 02, 2022

1. U.S. Shares Outperform China by 20% in July

China: US-listed Chinese shares are struggling.

Reuters Read full article

https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-august-1st-2022/


2. Sectors with Highest Dollar Exposure

Sectors Dependent on Foreign Revenue ..

Marketwatch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-dollar-will-weaken-and-these-stocks-could-outperform-says-evercore-11659438458?mod=home-page


3. Fang Plus Index Still Well Below 200 Day Moving Average

-40% Plus correction

www.stockcharts.com


4. Annualized Growth in Areas of Inflation

Blackrock

https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/literature/whitepaper/systematic-fixed-income-outlook-summer-2022.pdf


5. Agriculture in the U.S.

Barrons-About 60% of global food production comes from five countries: China, the U.S., India, Brazil and Argentina.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/companies-solving-world-food-shortage-stocks-51659046305?mod=past_editions

United States

The United States is known for its agriculture science and provides some advanced agriculture technology in the world. It proves a role model for many countries in the agriculture sector, and the United States agriculture is developing continually with increasing rates. Developing here refers to scientific soil, crop analysis, more innovative machinery, and increased use of computers. In short, we can say that the United States is the best country in agriculture technology.

  • Agriculture in the United States expanded by 5% every year after 1990. In addition to this, the production of every farming worker increased by 0.84% every year.
  • The United States produces the highest amount of timber. Approx 70% of the country’s forests officially owned with bounded logging permitted.
  • The United States is a net exporter of agricultural commodities. In 2007, the agriculture census recorded 2.2 million farms covering an area for agriculture.
  • In the United States, corn was the largest crop that produced an amount of 247,882,000 metric tons. And the 2nd one is soybeans with 74,598,000 metric tons. And the 3rd one is wheat that grew an amount of 69,327,000 metric tons.
  • The major crops in the United States are sugar cane, potatoes, coffee, sugar beets, and bananas.

https://www.tractorjunction.com/blog/top-10-agricultural-producing-countries-in-the-world/


6. Ag ETFs…VEGI–Hit $18 During Covid

VEGI-50 day went thru 200day to downside last month

stockcharts.com


7. MOO Agribusiness ETF Doubled Off Covid Lows.

MOO bouncing off -25% correction

www.stockcharts.com

www.etf.com


8. Countries Using Nuclear Power

Source: Statista


9. CNBC-Hackers drain nearly $200 million from crypto startup in ‘free-for-all’ attack

Ryan Browne@RYAN_BROWNE_

KEY POINTS

  • Hackers yanked almost $200 million in crypto from Nomad, a so-called blockchain bridge.
  • Blockchain bridges allow users to transfer tokens from one network to another.
  • They’ve become a prime target for hackers seeking to swindle investors out of millions.

Hackers drained almost $200 million in cryptocurrency from Nomad, a tool that lets users swap tokens from one blockchain to another, in yet another attack highlighting weaknesses in the decentralized finance space.

Nomad acknowledged the exploit in a tweet late Monday.

“We are aware of the incident involving the Nomad token bridge,” the startup said. “We are currently investigating and will provide updates when we have them.”

It’s not entirely clear how the attack was orchestrated, or if Nomad plans to reimburse users who lost tokens in the attack. The company, which markets itself as a “secure cross-chain messaging” service, wasn’t immediately available for comment when contacted by CNBC.

Blockchain security experts described the exploit as a “free-for-all.” Anyone with knowledge of the exploit and how it worked could seize on the flaw and withdraw an amount of tokens from Nomad — sort of like a cash machine spewing out money at the tap of a button.

It started with an upgrade to Nomad’s code. One part of the code was marked as valid whenever users decided to initiate a transfer, which allowed thieves to withdraw more assets than were deposited into the platform. Once other attackers cottoned on to what was going on, they deployed armies of bots to carry out copycat attacks.

“Without prior programming experience, any user could simply copy the original attackers’ transaction call data and substitute the address with theirs to exploit the protocol,” said Victor Young, founder and chief architect of crypto startup Analog.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/02/hackers-drain-nearly-200-million-from-crypto-startup-nomad.html


10. The Difference Between Busy and Non-Busy People

WRITTEN BY JOSHUA BECKER · 20 COMMENTS

Have you ever noticed how “busy” has become the new “fine”? As in, when you used to ask somebody how they were doing, they would answer, “Fine.” But nowadays, everybody answers, “Busy.”

Sometimes, people say it just to sound important. But most of the time, the person legitimately means it. They’re busy. There are too many responsibilities and not enough time in the day nor energy in the body to accomplish everything they want to do.

Busy has become the default state for many of us. But is the state improving our lives? Certainly not.

Statistics indicate that 75% of parents are too busy to read to their children at night. A rising number of children are being placed in day cares and after-school activities. Americans are having a hard time finding opportunity for vacations these days. About 33% of Americans are living with extreme stress daily, and nearly 50% of people say they regularly lie awake at night because of stress.

This is a problem. Activity is good, but we can become too busy.

It doesn’t have to be this way.

While busyness seems to be the prevailing condition of the human spirit these days, it is not true of everyone. In other words, busyness is not inevitable.

Some people are not busy. They appear calm, collected, and in control… but still productive. They are enviable in the life they live. What do they understand about life that others do not?

Learning from the Differences

Over the past fourteen years of minimizing my possessions and embracing greater intentionality in life, I’ve given lots of thought to this question:

How do we unbusy our lives but continue to pursue a significant and productive life?

Over the years, I’ve learned a lot from watching others and embracing habits and practices in my own life.

There is a difference between busy and non-busy people. Here are some of the most significant differences I have noticed:

Unbusy people know their purpose.

Unbusy people have thought long and hard about the legacy they want to leave, the goals they choose to pursue, and the significance they wish to discover.

These purposes may change or evolve over the course of one’s life, but they provide boundaries and a road map for the way they spend their days and time.

Goals shape us and goals move us. When we become resolved in the goals we pursue, we are less likely to allow distractions to remain in our life.

Every day we are presented with countless choices of how to spend our time, our energy, our effort, and our money. The wisest of us recognize we have the power to choose (more on that in a moment). But more than that, we know what we should choose, because we are guided by our life’s greatest mission.

Unbusy people are adamant about saying no to things that do not align with their mission.

Of course, sometimes the choices are obvious (I was never good at hockey, woodworking, or automobile mechanics, for example). But the hardest work is done in the trenches.

Staying on mission is about learning to say no to the urgent requests, the popular requests, and the countless opportunities in front of us each day—even good things that we could do. This becomes easier to do, the more resolved we become about our purpose in life.

What is your purpose? What goals do you have for your life? On what mission do you desire to live? And what plan have you developed to help you get there?

Pursue those with your heart and your life. And learn to say no to all the countless opportunities that will distract you from it.

Unbusy people know they have choice in life.

One of the most life-changing discoveries you can make in the pursuit of an unbusy life is the reality that busyness is a decision we make. We are never forced into a lifestyle of busyness.

We control our days. Our hours and our schedules are determined by us.

Greg McKeown, in his book Essentialism, says it this way: “No one can take away your right to choose. You can’t even give it away if you want. You can only forget that you have the power to decide.”

Now, this reality that we always have a choice in life doesn’t mean that there aren’t some external demands that may be placed on our lives. Anybody who has parented a young child knows this to be the case.

But in almost every case, when you get down to it, it is a decision that we made to put ourselves in that situation. You may have demands on your time from a boss, but your choice to stay in that job is yours. A newborn baby may require your time for a period of time, but what pursuit in life is more significant than raising your child?

You are not a victim and you are not a martyr. You need to show up in your life. In fact, you are the only one who can. You always have a choice. Unbusy people understand this and walk in that reality.

Unbusy people say no to almost everything.

Unbusy people know they can achieve more by doing less. Seneca wrote, “Everybody agrees that no one pursuit can be successfully followed by a man who is preoccupied with many things.”

Warren Buffett is credited as saying it this way: “The difference between successful people and very successful people is that very successful people say ‘no’ to almost everything.”

Now, your definition of very successfulmay be different than Warren Buffett’s, but the truth remains the same. If you desire to be successful in your most valued pursuits, you need to say no to the less important pursuits that distract you from them.

Recognize the inherent value in the word no. Learning to say no to less important commitments opens your life to pursue the most important.

Overcome your fear of saying no by reminding yourself, What my family, friends, and world need most is the best version of me that I can possibly be, accomplishing the most good with the one life I’ve been given.

Unbusy people don’t get distracted by unfulfilling pursuits.

You can never accumulate enough of the things that do not lead to fulfillment.

If, by definition, a pursuit can never satisfy our soul and longing for meaning and happiness, it is a pursuit with no end—it will always demand more time and energy. No matter how passionately we pursue it, we are left empty at the end of the day.

I fear too many of our lives resemble this interaction. We search for happiness, fulfillment, and meaning in the wrong places. We have searched for happiness in a number of society’s greatest offerings and have found most of them lacking—or fleeting.

We have searched for happiness in a bigger paycheck… only to discover we immediately desired an even bigger one.

We have searched for happiness in a job promotion or recognition… only to discover the accolades don’t last.

We have searched for happiness in bigger homes… only to discover they are accompanied by burdensome mortgage payments.

We have searched for happiness in fancier cars… only to discover they get scratches and dings just like the others.

We have searched for happiness in alcohol and drugs and sex… only to discover the pleasure has disappeared by morning.

We have searched for happiness in large savings accounts… only to discover money can’t solve all our problems.

When a pursuit does not provide lasting fulfillment, we have two choices:

First, we can chase after it harder and harder, hoping it will eventually satisfy. Or second, we can reject that pursuit altogether.

Choose the latter.

The sooner we recognize these pursuits will never fully satisfy, the easier it is to unbusy our lives.

Surely, lasting happiness and fulfillment can be found somewhere. There is something deep inside telling us that pursuing happiness is not an entirely futile endeavor. We just need to start looking in the right places.

And the sooner we recognize that the pursuits above will never fully satisfy, the easier it is to unbusy our lives.

Unbusy people value the significance of rest.

One of the reasons many of us keep busy schedules is we fail to recognize the value of rest. Rest is essential to our bodies, our minds, and our souls.

Consider the benefits that rest offers: a healthier body, improved life/work balance, less stress, deeper relationships, better opportunity to evaluate life’s direction, refreshed outlook, even increased productivity.

Yet, despite all the proven benefits, intentionally setting aside regular time for rest is a practice that has become undervalued and underappreciated in today’s culture. We have become overworked, overstressed, and exhausted.

Yet setting aside one day each week for rest remains a practice that fewer and fewer people practice regularly (never mind the idea of taking a two-week vacation).

Overlooking the importance of rest is certainly not unique to our modern society. But our culture has made it increasingly difficult to take rest without specific intentionality.

Rest is not laziness. It is essential for our bodies and spirit. See it as such and embrace it regularly.

Take time for lunch. Find space in your morning to sit quietly before starting your day. Invest in solitude, meditation, or prayer. Find opportunity for breaks at work in between projects. Begin right away cultivating little moments of space and margin in your otherwise busy day.

I work hard to keep an entire day of rest as an important part of my life and weekly routine. But it is an upward battle that requires relentless intentionality—we live in a culture that has far too often underappreciated its value.

Schedule rest on your calendar. Then guard it at all costs.

The Miracle of Margin

If we are wise, we will take our lives seriously. We will seek to develop our talents and skills and grow in our abilities and potential to be our best.

We will realize, however, that this does not occur in a life that is burdened by an over-filled, cluttered, busy schedule. Joshua Becker

Joshua Becker is the WSJ Best-Selling author of The More of Less and The Minimalist Home. His new book, Things That Matter, is now available.

https://www.becomingminimalist.com/busy-not-busy/

Topley’s Top 10 – August 01, 2022

1. S&P Agriculture Index -40% Correction…Gave up all of 2022 Gains

50 day approaching 200 day to downside on chart

www.stockcharts.com


2. Natural Gas Bottomed Below $2 in 2020

Trading Economics Blog

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas


3. Banks Traded Down to 1-1.25x Book Value in 2022 Sell-Off….Some Earnings Misses were Priced In.

@Charlie BilelloRallying on Bad Earnings

The big banks all reported a sharp downturn in net income during the second quarter, but expectations were low enough where the stocks have all moved higher since.

Powered by YCharts


4. U.S. Shale Producers Erasing a Decade of Losses

Bloomberg Kevin Crowley and David Wethe

US shale drillers are expected to post record second-quarter profits in coming days, reversing nearly a decade of debt-fueled losses. 

The top 28 publicly traded US independent oil producers generated $25.5 billion in free cash flow in the three months to June 30, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg. In that space of time they’ll have made enough cash to erase one-fourth of what they lost over the previous decade

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-31/shale-profits-finally-blossoming-after-decade-of-steep-losses?srnd=premium&sref=GGda9y2L


5. Huge U.S. Dollar Moves vs. Euro and Yen Pullback this Week

U.S. Dollar to Euro

U.S. Dollar to Yen

www.stockcharts.com


6. Bitcoin Correlation to S&P Rolls Over Since May Highs.

Dan Morehead Pantera

https://www.linkedin.com/in/dmorehead/


7. Post WWII Productivity Revolution Led by U.S.

Scott Galloway–The World We Made

The ascent of the American economy after World War II, coupled with the advances of technology, brought unprecedented prosperity not just to the U.S., but to the human race. It’s tempting to let the costs of that prosperity obscure it, but a sober accounting of America and the world today would be incomplete without recognizing our enormous gains.

The world is significantly wealthier, freer, healthier, and better educated than it was forty years ago. In 1980, over 40% of humanity lived in extreme poverty. Today, less than 10% does. In 1980, 44% of humanity had no democratic rights. Today, it is less than 25%. A child born in 1980 had a life expectancy of 63 years. A child born today should live a decade longer. In 1980, 30% of people fifteen years and older had no formal education. By 2015, that share had been cut in half.

These were global gains, but America lay at the heart of them. U.S. innovation in everything from transport to advertising supercharged the consumer culture of the postwar era into an upward dance between demand and manufacturing agility.

The billions lifted from poverty since 1980 were largely in Asia, and their means of ascent was making consumer goods for U.S. and European markets. Those same economies are today converting to knowledge work and middle-class lifestyles, in substantial part on the foundation of digital technologies developed in the former orange groves of the Bay Area.

We tend to focus on things that did occur, but we shouldn’t overlook crises that were averted. The demise of the Soviet Union posed an apocalyptic risk. By 1989, the Soviets commanded 39,000 nuclear warheads and the world’s largest standing army. Managing the sudden collapse of one of history’s largest empires could have gone very, very badly. At one point, the Soviet government sold twenty naval combat ships for cases of Pepsi. But postwar institutions crafted and nurtured by the Western nations held firm.

For better or worse (it’s both), the headline change is increased global connectivity. The term “globalization” has been loaded up with the anxieties of our era, but it represents a profound change in the human condition beyond the concerns of the moment. Never before has human knowledge been so widespread, nor have creators, from artists to manufacturers, had access to such a breadth of markets—and competitors.

https://www.profgalloway.com/a-touch-better/


8. Pelaton Market Cap $50B to $3B

Dated chart but now $3B

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/08/business/dealbook/peloton-ceo-sale.html


9. Housing—Bidding War Rate Drops Below 50%

Redfin-The bidding-war rate dipped below 50% for the first time since the start of the pandemic in June as rising mortgage rates and inflation took a bite out of homebuyer budgets.

Nationwide, 49.9% of home offers written by Redfin agents faced competition on a seasonally adjusted basis in June. That’s the lowest share since May 2020 and the first time the bidding-war rate has been below 50% since that same month, when the housing market was at a near standstill due to the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. June’s bidding-war rate compares with a revised rate of 65% one year earlier and 57.3% one month earlier, and marks the fifth-straight monthly decline.

On an unadjusted basis, June’s bidding-war rate was 51.5%, down from 66.7% one year earlier and 62.5% one month earlier.

An offer is considered part of a bidding war if a Redfin agent reported that it received at least one competing bid. The statistics in this analysis are subject to revision. Data below on property type and metro area is not seasonally adjusted. Redfin’s bidding-war data goes back through April 2020.

Housing-market competition is declining because higher mortgage rates, high home prices, inflation and a falling stock market have eroded homebuyer budgets, causing some house hunters to drop out of the market. Roughly 60,000 home-purchase agreements were called offin June, equal to 14.9% of homes that went under contract that month. That’s the highest percentage on record, with the exception of the start of the pandemic. The typical monthly mortgage payment for a homebuyer is now $2,387 at the current 5.51% mortgage rate, up 44% from a year ago.

“While the market is cooling, it’s not coming to a crashing halt,” said Shoshana Godwin, a Redfin real estate agent in Seattle. “House hunters who can still afford to buy should consider taking advantage of the slowdown given that there’s way less competition.”

https://www.redfin.com/news/real-estate-bidding-wars-june-2022/


10. 5 critical thinking benefits for life success-Tips from Sharvi

Critical thinking is a helpful approach when it comes to handling issues, making decisions, arguments, and better communication.  It can come to you naturally, or you may want to develop it as a skill and habit.  Read my blog post for more…

‘Critical thinking is the analysis of facts to form a judgment.[1] The subject is complex, and several different definitions exist, which generally include the rational, skeptical, unbiased analysis, or evaluation of factual evidence. Critical thinking is self-directed, self-disciplined, self-monitored, and self-corrective thinking.[2] It presupposes assent to rigorous standards of excellence and mindful command of their use. It entails effective communication and problem-solving abilities as well as a commitment to overcome native egocentrism[3][4] and sociocentrism.’ – as on Wikipedia

As a self-improvement blogger who shares what I’ve learnt (formally and informally) and through life experiences, I’m pleased to write about this topic for my readers!  Critical thinking is a vital skill that you can develop if you don’t already have it.  Most important of all, it will support you in many spheres of life, both personally and professionally.

Here are 5 key benefits:

1. Careful consideration

Considering the matter and analyzing things properly are key to having a better quality result.  When I find myself pondering about something that I know will have an important impact, I prefer taking a pen and paper to work on my thoughts and collect facts to help me better understand what I need to do.  I then make use of what I’ve written down to work on things.

2. Well informed decisions

Certain decisions that you make have more impact on your life than others.  Generally, all of them have some significance, however, some could be more crucial, based on the possible consequences.  When I write things down to analyze, it supports better decisions as an outcome of the exercise.  If I don’t know all the facts, I find them out.

3. Emotions

Putting on paper helps to release emotions in the form of gratitude journaling.  Jotting down what needs logical evaluation, is also a great tip that has helped me much.  While being grateful helps me feel better about what I already have in life, some decisions are best taken by setting aside emotions and taking a more rational approach for the best results.

4. Solve issues

There are various problem-solving frameworks and approaches.  They are practical methods that are known to walk you through the steps of careful analysis, evaluation of different options, and finding the best alternative for yourself.  I have used such methods and have seen that they bring out the best in me.

5. Better results

There’s no right or wrong way to make most decisions, especially personal ones.  However, the quality of them could be crucial to the final result.  When I believe that something is serious enough, I do take the time to think critically about it.  This also helps to reduce any relevant potential risks as a part of the outcome.

If you already practice critical thinking, then you must have seen the gains that come with it.  For those who want to learn and develop the skill, starting now is the best time to do so.  Improving communication skills, making better decisions and arguments are vital to success!

Conclusion

Critical thinking is your ally in many areas of life.  Use it to your benefit by honing an existing skill, or else, embrace it for the better.  Would you like to leave a comment to tell us about your experience?  If you know someone who needs to read my article, please share it.  Thanks and cheers!

https://tipsfromsharvi.com/2021/06/15/critical-thinking-success/

Topley’s Top 10 – July 29, 2022

1. Buybacks Coming Back Next Week…Blackout Period Clears

2. Another Bull Market Stock Softbank Holding 200 Week Moving Average

3. Emerging Market Small Cap Holding 200 Week Moving Average

www.stockcharts.com

4. One-Year Inflation Break Even 2.9%

Marketwatch-Using CPI inflation swaps, I calculated the one-year forward, one-year inflation break-evens — basically, the expected inflation between July 2023 and July 2024, which is represented in the chart above and sits at 2.9%. By Alfonso Peccatiello

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-vowed-to-crush-inflation-with-higher-rates-then-the-stock-market-rallied-heres-why-its-not-good-news-11659037159?mod=home-page

5. Big Options Bets on Volatility Disappear

Options on VIX have been getting cheaper as investors give up bets on big shifts in volatility.

https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-july-28th-2022/

6. Hong Kong Stocks -10% in July

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gloom-returns-china-stocks-worst-093652919.html

7. Alphabet Revenue Breakdown

Alphabet is A-OK

It’s still all about Search. That was the five-word soundbite that you might have come away with had you combed through Alphabet’s latest quarterly update yesterday.

Although the company reported a slowdown, Alphabet still managed to grow its second quarter revenue some 13% in the last year. Whilst not a home-run performance, it was something of a relief following the recent reports of digital ad rivals Snapchat and Twitter, both of which disappointed investors. At the time of writing it’s been good enough for Alphabet shares to climb 4% this morning.

Still searching

Google Search, which still represents more than half of Alphabet’s total business, saw ad sales grow 14% in the most recent quarter — significantly outperforming YouTube which only grew 5%. That confirms a long-held theory that the search ad market might be less fickle than the social media ad market.

In a recession people might not click that flashy e-commerce ad on Instagram or Snapchat quite as much as they used to, but they seem to still be searching Google for “cheapest car insurance”, “restaurants near me” or “best value vacations” — all of which Google can monetize.

www.chartr.com

8. Until Now Mortgage Rates Have Always Been Higher Than Inflation

John Burns Real Estate This is clearly a “never before” moment in time.
Mortgage rates have always been higher than inflation.
Also, not how tight the spread has been since the Fed started buying mortgage-backed securities in 2009.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/johnburns7/

9. Coal Consumption Will Set a Record in 2023

Bloomberg Today’s Take: Coal is still king

This Sunday marks the 110th anniversary of the beginning of one of the most important energy transitions. On July 31, 1912, Winston Churchill, then Britain’s First Lord of the Admiralty, established a Royal Commission on Fuels and Engines to explore shifting the Royal Navy from coal to fuel oil.

Churchill convinced the navy to abandon coal-fired steam boilers. And over the next century, the world energy map transformed itself, first through the rise of oil and later to solar and wind power. The ecological movement became a major political force, pushing the fight against climate change.

And coal? It’s still there, king as always.

The International Energy Agency this week said global coal demand in 2022 will match the all-time high set in 2013 of about 8 billion metric tons. And next year, coal consumption will set a fresh record high.

It bears repeating: global demand for coal, the most-polluting fossil fuel, is still rising. The gap between the reality of the coal market and the well-intentioned words uttered at climate conferences has never been wider.

And it isn’t just absolute demand. Even as a share of the world’s primary energy, coal consumption remains robust. Last year, coal accounted for 27% of the world’s primary energy, a couple of percentage points higher than two decades ago, and about the same level as 50 years ago.

With demand rising – in part due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – and supply stagnant, the world is paying a steep financial cost for coal alongside the environmental toll. In Europe, coal prices this week surged to a record above $400 per ton.

As important as the surge in spot prices is the fact that the whole forward curve has moved much higher in recent weeks. If in March, just after Russia’s attack, the market saw a short-term rally, now it’s betting on sustained high prices through the rest of 2022, into 2023 and even 2024.

It’s an increasingly expensive addiction the world just can’t seem to kick.

–Javier Blas, Bloomberg Opinion. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-29/coal-is-still-king-of-the-energy-system-elements-by-javier-blas?srnd=premium&sref=GGda9y2L

10. Farnam Street Blog …READING TIPS-Taking Notes

The Blank Sheet

The single biggest change you can make to getting more out of the books you read is using the blank sheet method.

Over the years I’ve tested multiple approaches and this one works best for simplicity and effectiveness — it will 10x your comprehension overnight.

The blank sheet primes your brain for what you’re about to read and shows you what you’re learning.

Here’s how it works:

  1. Before you start reading a new book, take out a blank sheet of paper. Write down what you know about the book / subject you’re about to read — a mind map if you will.
  2. After you finish a reading session, spend a few minutes adding to the map with a different color.
  3. Before you start your next reading session, review the page.
  4. When you’re done reading, put these ‘blank sheets’ into a binder that you periodically review.

An example I made when I was reading a new book by Jeff Immelt—someone whom I was preparing to interview for The Knowledge Project.

Why does this work so well?

The blank sheet primes your brain for what you’re about to read and shows you what you’re learning.

When you first start with a blank sheet, you’re forced to search your memory and put on paper what you know (or what you think you know) about a subject.

As you read, you literally see that knowledge grow as you add new knowledge to the foundation. Often, you’ll even remove things you thought you knew.

Reviewing what you knew about a subject, as well as what you learned before a reading session not only improves memory and recall but helps connects ideas. Most of the early connections come from putting the authors’ raw material onto your foundation.

If you don’t know anything about the subject before you start, don’t worry. You’ll be able to borrow the scaffolding in the book to get you started.

As your cognitive fluency in a subject grows, you’ll start connecting ideas across disciplines, disagreeing with authors about specific points, and even developing your own ideas.

When you’re done with the book put the page into a binder. Review the binder every few months. This last step is essential for establishing deep fluency and connecting ideas across disciplines.

Conventional Notes

Forget the teacher that yelled at you for writing in your book when you were a kid. You bought this thing. It’s your property. You need to write in the margins.

Here is a very simple process to take notes while reading:

  • At the end of each chapter write a few bullet points that summarize the main idea or specific points. Use your own words and not the authors. Try and connect it to something in your life — a memory or another idea. Also, make note any unanswered questions you had while reading.
  • When you’re done the book, put it down for a week.
  • Pick up the book again and go through all your notes. In a lot of cases, reading your notes will be as good as reading the book again.
  • On the inside cover write out the main idea of the book using your own words. If you find yourself stuck, review your notes. (This is called the Feynman Technique). Writing is the process by which we often discover we don’t know what we are talking about.
  • You can even make a custom index on the back cover with themes or topics.
  • (Optional) Copy out the excerpts by hand and put them on the back of your blank sheet from above or type them out and put them into Evernote. Tag accordingly.

The point of both conventional notes and the blank sheet is to connect new knowledge to old knowledge and point out gaps in your understanding. Writing about what you read is a great way to see what you’ve learned.

https://fs.blog/newsletter/

Topley’s Top 10 – July 25, 2022

1. 10 Year Breakeven Inflation Rate has Dropped by 1/3

What does 10 year breakeven inflation rate mean?

The 10 year breakeven rate measures the difference or gap between 10 year Treasury Bond and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). The 10 year breakeven rate serves as an indication of the markets’ inflation expectations over the 10 year horizon.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE


2. Price to Sales and Price to Book S&P

S&P 500 Price to Sales Ratio

S&P 500 Price to Book Value

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price-to-book


3. Highest Inflation in 40 Years…Nasdaq -30%+…VIX sideways no spike.


4. Lumber -50% from Highs

 www.stockcharts.com


5. Homebuilders Hold 200 Week Moving Average

Barrons Cheapest Stocks in S&P—3 are Homebuilders-DHI, PHM, LEN.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/cheapest-sp500-stocks-now-51653346274


6. Crude Oil Back to Pre Ukraine Invasion Levels

Bespoke Investment Group-Gas prices are of course driven by the price of crude oil, and in Friday’s Morning Lineup, we noted that crude oil prices have now fallen back to the level they were at when Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine back in late February:

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/charts-of-the-week-from-bespoke-7-22-22


7. Earnings Estimates Developed Versus Emerging Markets

Earnings Outlook:  Emerging Markets are usually a few steps ahead of developed markets given the heavy weightings in EM equities to traditional cyclical sectors (and hence sensitivity to the ebb and flow of the global economy).

As such, Developed Markets, and more specifically S&P 500 earnings estimates are likely the next shoe to drop in all this.

Source: @Mayhem4Markets  Found at Callum Thomas Weekly Chart Storm

https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-24-july


8. Most Common Statues in America

Washington Post Analysis by Andrew Van Dam

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/07/15/diversity-statues-highways/


9. The Inflation Adjusted Cost of Baseball Game 1960 vs. 2022…..Its Out of Reach for Working Class Americans

The Hustle Zachary Crockett

America’s favorite family outings are increasingly out of reach

https://thehustle.co/americas-favorite-family-outings-are-increasingly-out-of-reach/


10. Risk Tolerance is the Scarcest Resource at Most Companies.

From Farnam Street https://fs.blog

Risk, decisons, and scarcity-Jason Fried
This weekend I took a long walk with a fellow founder/CEO. We talked on the phone before, but never met in person. We found ourselves in the same city, so it felt like it was time to shake hands and catch up IRL.

He runs a company that’s an order or magnitude larger than 37signals, so his experiences, responsibilities, and perspectives are quite a bit different from mine. But as we’ve careened towards our own renewed growth phase — we’re currently larger than we’ve ever been, and still hiring — a few of his insights really resonated.

And one really stuck.

When he said it, I had to repeat it to make sure I heard it right. I wanted to sear the words in my brain so I both fully understood and wouldn’t forget.

He said “Risk tolerance is the scarcest resource in most companies.” I just love how that’s framed.

He then went on to say, and this one I’m paraphrasing a bit, that it’s the one of the things that sets founder-led companies apart from founder-less companies. Founder-led companies tend to take more risks. They’re more risk tolerant, less risk averse.

He also related this to company size. This one’s a bit more obvious — the larger the company, the more risk averse they are, even if they’re still founder-led. But it’s not just a pure function of size, which is the typical conclusion. No, it’s about distance. The further away a founder is from would-be risky decisions, the more likely those decisions will be safe decisions. It’s only natural.

It made me realize something I may have inherently understood, but hadn’t really realized was a unique responsibility of a founder who’s still running the show: It’s my job — my obligation, really — to fill the coffers with risk. It’s my role to make sure there’s an ample supply. No one else will produce it, and few will introduce it. The more it’s drained, the more it needs to rain.

While the company at large is focused on results, founders should be focused on taking chances.

There are certain risks founders need to take that others will not. Step function changes, for example. Things that can’t be explained by past results and experiments, but a hunch that the equation has changed. All the while keeping in mind that there’s a notable difference between taking a risk and putting yourself at risk.

So, if you’ve decided you want to take a risk, then take it. If you don’t, then keep talking about it — it’ll almost certainly talk you out of it. The safer option is the most abrasive — it’ll wear down the risk, polish the edges, and make the object of beautiful and smooth. But risk needs to snag, or it isn’t much of a risk at all.

-Jason

https://world.hey.com/jason/risk-decisons-and-scarcity-d4c7636c

Topley’s Top 10 – July 20, 2022

1. One-Year Treasury Coupon 3.13%


2. Natural Gas -42% Correction Before July Bounce Back.


3. Banks -33% Correction….Bounce Yesterday


4. XLF Financials ETF 16 Straight Weeks of Outflows.

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading-The $28.4 billion Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (ticker XLF) has seen outflows for 16 straight weeks, the longest such streak in its 23-year history, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Almost $11 billion has been wiped away in that span, shrinking the fund’s total assets by roughly 28%.


5. Netflix Sideways Pattern on Chart Since April…Forming Bottom?

Long-Term Chart on NFLX Show True Damage…$700 to $180


6. Schwab Chart of Updated Global Equity Valuations


7. Microsoft and 200 Day Moving Average

Michael Batnick–Microsoft hasn’t been this far below its 200-day moving average since 2012.  https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2022/07/14/everything-must-fall/


8. ESG Have Largest Monthly Outflow on Record

Found at Zerohedge https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/esg.jpg?itok=TudIfEVf


9. 58% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck after inflation spike — including 30% of those earning $250,000 or more

Jessica Dickler@JDICKLER

KEY POINTS

  • With inflation still near 40-year highs, more than half of all Americans are living paycheck to paycheck, according to one report.
  • Consumers who are struggling to afford their day-to-day lifestyle tend to rely more on credit cards and carry higher monthly balances making them financially vulnerable.
  • Even top earners say they are stretched thin, the report found.

With inflation at 40-year highs, workers across all income levels are having a harder time making ends meet.

As of May, 58% of Americans — roughly 150 million adults — live paycheck to paycheck, according to a new LendingClub report. That’s down slightly from 61% who reported living paycheck to paycheck in April but up from 54% in May 2021.

Even top earners say they are stretched thin, the report found. Of those earning $250,000 or more, 30% are living paycheck to paycheck. (Another recent survey, from consulting firm Willis Towers Watson, estimated 36% of those earning $100,000 or more are living paycheck to paycheck.)

“Consumers have experienced a tough last couple of years as different factors have affected their financial lifestyle, and there seems to be little relief in sight,” said Anuj Nayar, LendingClub’s financial health officer.

With inflation, paychecks don’t stretch as far

The consumer price index, a key inflation gage, rose 8.6% in May from a year ago, the highest increase since December 1981, spurred by surging housing, gasoline and food costs.

Those rising prices meant workers took another pay cut during the month.

When wages rise at a slower pace than inflation, paychecks won’t stretch as far at the grocery store or the gas pump — making it more difficult to cover monthly expenses and set some money aside.

Credit card balances contribute to financial vulnerability

Those struggling to afford their day-to-day lifestyle tend to rely more on credit cards and carry a higher monthly balance, making them financially vulnerable, the survey said.

Overall, credit card balances rose year over year, reaching $841 billion in the first three months of 2022, according to a separate report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

At this rate, balances could soon reach record levels amid higher prices for gas, groceries and housing, among other necessities, according to Ted Rossman, a senior industry analyst at CreditCards.com.

For its part, the Federal Reserve has been hiking its target federal funds rate in an effort to calm runaway inflation.

However, anyone carrying a balance will also see the annual percentage rate on their credit card head higher as the Fed continues to raise rates to try and tamp down rising prices.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/27/more-than-half-of-americans-live-paycheck-to-paycheck-amid-inflation.html#:~:text=As%20of%20May%2C%2058%25%20of,from%2054%25%20in%20May%202021


10. Arete: The Meaning of Life

I’ll admit that this is an ambitious post title. Thinkers have struggled against this question for thousands of years. One of the interesting things about this question is that the answers don’t converge on a single point. Instead there are many different methods to answer what might be the most important human question.

I’m certainly not going to answer that question in a blog post. Not only would that be incredibly presumptuous of me, but I think it sort of misses the point. Who wants to live a life where you’re handed all the correct answers in advance?

Instead, I’d like to focus on one viewpoint to this problem that I stumbled upon recently. This is a perspective I hadn’t heard before and nicely deals with some of the uncomfortable problems I feel have been brought up with the current Western stance on the problem. This answer to the meaning of life is simply: arete.

What is Arete?

Arete is an ancient Greek word meaning excellence or virtue. The arete of something is the highest quality state it can reach. Using arete as a principle for living life means that you are focused on the quality of everything you do and experience. Avoid actions that lack arete. Take actions that focus on arete.

When most people think of virtue, they look at moral virtue. But arete as a way of describing quality, touches on much more than that. A beautiful painting can have arete, even though it isn’t ethically superior to a dull painting.

I believe arete is a more comprehensive way of viewing life than the two main directions I see from popular Western philosophies.

Happiness or Service? Pick a Side.

I’m grossly simplifying philosophy here (so if you’re well versed in philosophical teachings, hopefully you won’t take offense to my blunt-club treatment of the topic). But in most of the readings I’ve done of major Western views on the meaning of life, I could clump them into two broad categories: happiness or service.

Pursuing Love and Happiness

“Don’t worry, be happy.” – Bobby McFerrin

The first viewpoint is that the ultimate meaning in life is happiness. Not just the naive happiness of short-term pleasure, but the long-term, pursuit of your dreams, happiness. From this viewpoint, your goal should be to maximize your long-term happiness by taking the best actions you feel will reach you there.

As a whole, I don’t feel this philosophy is completely broken. While a few people might be able to achieve happiness without connecting and providing value to the world, I don’t think most could. So the naive view that this philosophy degenerates into addiction and selfishness isn’t valid.

But the problem with this philosophy is that it isn’t always practical. Happiness can often twist on itself when you make it the goal of your actions. Getting the dream job, spouse or million dollars leaves you as unhappy as you were before. Pursuing happiness completely may also feel somewhat shallow as if the entire point of your existence rests on a few neurotransmitters in your brain.

Pursuing Service and Purpose

“At first I thought that life was joy. Then I learned that life was duty. Finally, I acted and, behold, duty was joy.” – Rabindranath Tagore

The second stream of Western thought in my blunt-club look at life philosophies is focusing on purpose and service. This stream of thought usually focuses on helping other people as a means of achieving meaning in life.

Just with our first philosophical stream, the naive view points out that a life devoted to service misses out on happiness. You’re so busy helping others that you don’t have a chance to enjoy life for yourself. I don’t feel this is a valid criticism, because as Tagore said, “duty was joy.” Serve and you will be happy.

But like the other philosophy, I feel this approach suffers from a weakness. The philosophy, if you look at it closely, tends to loop back on itself. The meaning of your life comes from having a purpose. Therefore your purpose is to have a purpose. It doesn’t take too much thinking to wonder whether there is a purpose to your purpose.

I don’t feel this small flaw destroys an entire viewpoint of the world, but it does make it somewhat less useful.

Pursuing Arete

“And what is good, Phaedrus, And what is not good — Need we ask anyone to tell us these things?” – Socrates

Instead of using words like “happiness” or “purpose” I prefer the word arete. Arete, covers the idea that there is an excellence in everything. Pursuing that excellence, whether it creates happiness for yourself or service for others, should be your ultimate goal. I see both happiness and service as being subsets of the larger domain of arete.

Who decides what has quality? I’m not going to touch this question and instead tell you to read Robert Pirsig’s, Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance. Pirsig believed that quality (or arete) was the underlying substance of the universe, from which both the subjective and objective are derived. Quality creates the mind and it creates the world.

On a more practical level, arete is a nifty word to have. It fits easily in the backpocket of your life philosophy and makes it easier to decide what you should focus on. Instead of focusing on just your total happiness or your total service, you focus on the quality of whatever you do.

Here are a few ways I’ve been trying to incorporate the philosophy of arete into my own life:

  1. Gym Workouts. To me, strength, speed and flexibility are all signs of arete. Rather than put my emphasis on goals when exercising (from the happiness philosophy) or how being healthy will help me aid society (service philosophy), I focus on quality. Therefore, when I’m at the gym, I try to make my goal to have private excellence: lifting more weight, running faster or working harder.
  2. Blog Writing. The happiness/service split here would be focusing on writing articles that will get me massive traffic flows or focusing on writing articles that will provide immense value to people. Instead I’d like to focus on arete–making each article the best expression of an idea that I can within the constraints.
  3. Relationships. Instead of focusing on how people can help me, or how I can help people, focus on arete. What is quality in a relationship? My guess would be connection, sharing, loyalty, deep conversations or laughter.
  4. Knowledge. I’m reading through The Wealth of Nations right now for fun. The book is difficult to read and requires more effort than a more entertaining novel. Why am I reading it? Because, for me, this book has arete. It represents a significant leap forward in human thought and I want to be a part of that journey Adam Smith started.
  5. Food. Instead of eating for taste, weight goals or even long-term health, eat for arete. Eat the foods that have quality to you. This applies both in taste and nutrition. Eating greasy junk or cardboard-flavored health snacks both fail my model of arete.
  6. Speech. Are your sentences peppered with um’s and ah’s? Do your words have clarity and meaning, or do you not know when to shut up? I’ve been trying to debug my communication patterns to help fit in with this model of quality.

These are just a few examples, but I thought I’d like to demonstrate a few of the practical applications from a life philosophy. I like to view philosophies to be like algorithms for life. If you have a great algorithm, you can solve problems with few flaws. Arete, while it isn’t perfect, is a fantastic algorithm for life.

https://www.scotthyoung.com/blog/2008/03/12/arete-the-meaning-of-life/

Topley’s Top 10 – July 18, 2022

1. Major Indices Holding Above 200 Week Moving Averages.

S&P above 200 week

Nasdaq Comp above 200 week

www.stockcharts.com


2. Dow Jones and Dow Transports Above 200 Week

Dow Industrials

Dow Transports


3. Small Caps had Worse First Half Ever…Holding Sideways on 200 Week

www.stockcharts.com


4. Japanese Yen Falls to 20 Year Low vs. U.S. Dollar

www.stockcharts.com

 


5. Overall Asian Currencies have Slumped to Historical Lows vs. Dollar

Bloomberg-Unstoppable Dollar Risks Worsening $71 Billion Asia Stock Exodus

Unstoppable Dollar Risks Worsening $71 Billion Asia Stock Exodus-Ishika Mookerjee

(Bloomberg) — The dollar’s relentless rise is threatening to trigger more outflows from Asia’s emerging-market shares, spoiling hopes of the region making a comeback in the second half.

A gauge of Asian currencies has slumped to its lowest in more than two years, an ominous sign for equities given their strong relationship with moves in foreign exchange. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index has fallen 20% as foreign investors took $71 billion out of stock markets in emerging Asia outside China so far this year, already double the outflows in 2021.

The dollar has steamrolled through global currency markets lately, benefiting from bets on aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes. A stronger greenback bodes ill for Asian stocks when it signals lower risk appetite and is also seen as negative for growth in emerging economies, many of which rely on imports priced in the currency.

“The dollar is strengthening because there’s risk aversion rather than growth” and that’s “not a good mix” for Asian assets, said Zhikai Chen, head of Asian equities at BNP Paribas Asset Management.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/unstoppable-dollar-risks-worsening-71-000000106.html


6. South Korea Chipmakers Inventory Build

QUARTZ Meanwhile, South Korea’s Ministry of Economy and Finance reports that Korean chipmakers are sitting on a rapidly growing stockpile of unsold chips. The country, which is the world’s biggest producer of memory chips for electronics like laptops and smartphones, hasn’t seen its semiconductor inventory rise this fast since 2018.

https://qz.com/2186673/its-the-best-and-worst-of-times-for-semiconductor-supply-chains/

From Barry Ritholtz blog https://ritholtz.com/2022/07/weekend-reads-525/


7. The Tesla of China ….BYD Hit All-Time Highs

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BYDDF:OTCMKTS?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwivy7jdg4H5AhW3hYkEHSPKCpMQ3ecFegQIFxAY

2022-BYD +11% vs. TSLA -32%

www.yahoofinance.com

8. Tesla’s Layoffs All Scooped Up Already

Here’s where Tesla’s recently laid-off talent is going
Fred Lambert
@FredericLambert
https://electrek.co/2022/07/11/where-tesla-recently-laid-off-talent-going/

9. 10 Places Where the Housing Market’s Tide Has Turned

Barrons
Shaina Mishkin  andWilliam McCormack
Cooling Down
These metropolitan areas have seen the biggest slowdowns in listing prices compared with their one-year trends.
Metropolitan Area Median Listing Price* Average Monthly Gain Over the Past Year** Gain in June Decline From Monthly Average
Bridgeport, Conn. $982,000 32% 4% 28%
Boise, Idaho 587,900 22 10 12
Austin, Texas 620,000 30 19 11
New Haven, Conn. 362,400 16 7 9
McAllen, Texas 275,000 14 7 7
Baton Rouge, La. 336,995 14 9 5
Las Vegas 499,450 29 25 4
Fresno, Calif. 445,000 15 11 4
Hartford, Conn. 375,000 15 11 4
Denver 680,000 16 13 3
U.S. $450,000 12% 17% +5%

*As of June; **Based on year-over-year gains for each month from July 2021 through June 2022.

Source: Realtor.com

https://www.barrons.com/articles/housing-market-listing-prices-outlook-51657816762?mod=past_editions


10. Farnam Street-Inside a Miracle: The 1980 U.S. Hockey Team.

Few people know the details about one of the greatest stories in sports history. A classic David versus Goliath story that happened at the 1980 Olympics in Lake Placid when the U.S. Olympic Hockey team played the Soviets.

While the U.S. team had won the gold at the Squaw Valley Olympics in 1960, they hadn’t done much since then. The only notable showing was 5th place at the 1976 games. The Soviets, on the other hand, came into the 1980 Olympics having won 12 of the previous 15 world championships and 4 Olympic gold medals in a row. The Soviet record since Squaw Valley was 27-1-1.

In fact, the Soviets were so good, that in 1979 there was no NHL all-star game. Instead they just invited the Soviets to play a three-game series called the Challenge Cup. The U.S.S.R crushed the best players in the NHL 6-0 in the deciding game.

The Soviets beating the U.S. hockey team at the 1980 Olympics was as close to a sure thing as you could imagine, or so it seemed. Only things didn’t play out the way either team expected.

In his book, 99: Stories of the Game, the legendary Wayne Gretzky tells the incredible story of what transpired.

“In the United States,” Gretzky writes, “the goal was to build a team that, while not having much chance of winning, would at least not embarrass the country.”

Herb Brooks was hired as coach. If there was one guy in the program who wasn’t playing to avoid embarrassment, it was Brooks.

Eighty of the best college players were invited to Colorado Springs in July of 1979 to compete for a roster spot (remember at the time the Olympic games were for amateurs). Although it wasn’t so much a competition as formality. Brooks had won three NCAA championships coaching Minnesota, so he pretty much knew the 23 man roster he wanted.

A bit of leadership …

Brooks took one of the assistant coaches aside and said “A lot of these guys hate each other, and the only way I can think to make them a team is for all of them to hate me. You’re going to have to keep all the pieces together and be the guy they can lean on, because they’re not going to be able to lean on me. I’m going to be the same to all of them. I’m going to be tough on all of them.”

In a warm up game before the Olympics at Madison Square Garden, team USA lost to the Russians 10-3. The players were in awe of the opponent.

Brooks has spent a lot of time in Russia learning some of their systems. Herb discovered that when the Russians played hockey, they didn’t shoot the puck unless they thought they could score, and so although it might look as if they had fewer than ten shots on goal, they were shots that counted. …

[I]t was all about puck possession. The Russian team didn’t have to work as hard in defense because they had the puck so often. When a lot of people watch hockey, they don’t seem to focus on that. A big part of my game (Gretzky) was the forecheck—chasing a defenseman down, lifting his stick, and taking the puck. If you take the puck off a defenseman or player in his own end, you don’t have as many players to beat in order to score or to make a play.

An unexpected bit of ego and overconfidence …

The first medal-round game featured the Soviets and Americans. The game was played at 5 p.m. but didn’t air on ABC until 8 p.m. “One of the most memorable moments in American sports history would be watched by most Americans three hours after it happened,” Gretzky tells us.

In the locker room just ahead of the game, Herb Brooks gave the most inspirational speech of his life. He told the guys, “You were born to be a player. You were meant to be here. The moment is yours.”

The players skated onto the ice and looked up. The arena was packed. People were waving American flags everywhere. In the first minutes, the Americans surprised the Soviets with how fast and emotionally they played. Still the Soviets scored first. Then the unexpected happened.

Buzz Schneider took a slapshot and beat the legendary Soviet goaltender Vladislav Tretiak, tying the game. The Soviets quickly scored again and it looked like the first period would end that way when Dave Christian picked up the puck in his own zone with only five seconds left. Rather than play till the whistle, a lesson we all learn at one point or another and one that was drilled into me by my high-school football coach, the Soviets had let up thinking the period was over. Christian shot the puck up ice, Mark Johnson chased it down, deked Tretiak, and scored with only one second left. Tie game.

In the second period, Soviet coach Viktor Tikhonov pulled a surprise move. He replaced Tretiak—a guy known as one of the best goalies of all time—with his backup, Vladimir Myshkin. I’ve (Gretzky) had the opportunity to sit down with Tretiak and hear his opinion about it. Tretiak was the biggest star in Russia—and maybe still is, thanks to what he did in ’72 as a twenty-year-old goalie—and I think it used to drive Tikhonov crazy. He wanted to show everyone that his coaching was the reason they were winning the Olympics, not Tretiak’s goaltending. And to this day, Tretiak thinks that’s why he was pulled.

“Don’t change a thing. Don’t change a thing because they’ve changed goalies. Don’t change a thing. Play the same way,” Brooks was heard telling his team.

A lucky bounce …

In the third period, the Soviets looked dominant again. Then, on a rush, a shot from Dave Silk slipped through a Soviet defenceman’s skate right onto Mark Johnson’s stick. Before Myshkin could move, it was in the net and the score was tied (3-3). A minute later, the American captain, Mike Eruzione, scored.

Now the Americans were leading, just ten minutes away from a shot at a gold medal. Brooks kept walking up and down the bench saying, “Play your game. Play your game.” He repeated it a thousand times at least.

Jimmy Craig (the American goaltender) was in the zone. He wasn’t going to get scored on. When a goalie is in that kind of zone, especially in the playoffs, his ability to anticipate the shot is as good as the rest of his skill set. And Craig wasn’t alone—the whole team was flying out there. When you go into a series without the sense of entitlement the Russians had, it gives you the intensity you need to get to that extra level.

The gamed ended 4-3 for the U.S. The Americans swarmed the ice. They could hardly believe it—they had to keep telling themselves, “We beat them. We. Beat. Them.”

It was the first game the Soviets had lost at the Olympics in 12 years.

There are several lessons one can take away from this story—Brooks’ leadership to make the team hate him more than each other; Tikhonov’s ego pulling the legendary Tretiak to show the world how amazing he was; and the importance of playing to the whistle come to mind. Perhaps the most important lesson of all is that when the conditions are right, a group of “average people” can come together and get non-average results.

https://fs.blog/inside-a-miracle/

Topley’s Top 10 – July 14, 2022

1. Yield Curve Full Inversion.

CNBC-Yield curve inversion between 10-year and 2-year rates reaches biggest point since 2000

Samantha Subin@SAMANTHA_SUBINMatt Clinch@MATTCLINCH81

The 2-year Treasury yield popped Wednesday while its 10-year counterpart fell, pushing the so-called inversion between the two to its biggest level since 2000. Yield-curve inversions are seen by many on Wall Street as signals that a recession lies on the horizon.

The 2-year, which is more sensitive to changes in monetary policy, traded more than 9 basis points higher at around 3.138%. The benchmark 10-year rate, meanwhile, slid nearly 4 basis points to 2.919%. Yields move inversely to prices, and a basis point is equal to 0.01%.

Those moves came after the U.S. government said after the consumer price index rose 9.1% on a year-over-year basis in June. That’s well above a Dow Jones estimate of 8.8% and marked the fastest pace for inflation since November 1981. It also added to worries of even tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/13/us-bonds-treasury-yields-tick-higher-as-traders-prepare-for-inflation.html


2. U.S. Steel -57% in 3 Months…Back to Covid Levels

U.S. Steel Stock hit $16.50 intra-day 2020 levels

www.stockcharts.com


3. European Brent Crude Priced in Euros

From Nasdaq Dorsey Wright

https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright


4. Commodities Decline from Peaks

@samRo

(20) Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) / Twitter


5. Odds of 100 Basis Point Raise in July Hit 30%

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html


6. Inflation Breakeven Inflation Rates Falling Quickly

Liz Ann Sonders Schwab-Breakeven rates descending quickly over past 3 months … drop in 1y, 5y, and 10y is steepest since summer 2020

https://twitter.com/LizAnnSounders


7. Public Companies Record Stock Buybacks in Q2

WSJ By Hannah Miao Companies are also using their cash to repurchase their own shares at record levels, with second-quarter buybacks expected to set a fresh high of $286.4 billion, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

CSD-Buyback ETF Clear Down Channel on Chart….broke uptrend line going back to end of 2019

https://www.wsj.com/articles/dividend-payouts-hit-record-despite-rocky-stretch-in-markets-11657618381?mod=itp_wsj&ru=yahoo


8. Chinese Homebuyers Across 22 Cities Refuse to Pay Mortgages

(Bloomberg) — Across China, homebuyers are refusing to pay mortgages as property developers drag on construction projects, escalating the country’s real estate crisis and risks of bad debt for banks.

Buyers of 35 projects across 22 cities have decided to stop paying mortgages as of July 12 due to project delays and a drop in real estate prices, Citigroup Inc. analysts led by Griffin Chan wrote in a research report distributed on Wednesday.

The payment refusals underscore how the storm engulfing China’s property sector is now affecting the country’s middle class, posing a threat to social stability. Chinese banks already grappling with challenges from liquidity stress among developers now also have to brace for homebuyer defaults.

Now is “a critical time for social stability,” said Chan, adding that “the forgoing of down payments may bring social instability.”

A drop in home values hasn’t helped. Average selling prices of properties in nearby projects in 2022 were on average 15% lower than purchase costs in the past three years, according to Citigroup’s research.

The contagion is spreading to banks. Non-performing loans triggered by the wave of mortgage payment snubs could reach as much as 561 billion yuan ($83 billion), about 1.4% of the outstanding mortgage balance, according to Chan.

While the overall impact on banks will be “manageable,” state lenders including China Construction Bank Corp., Postal Savings Bank of China Co. and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. may have more exposure to mortgages, and could suffer setbacks amid dampened investor sentiment, Chan wrote.

Postal Savings Bank’s shares fell 3.3% as of 2 p.m. in Shanghai, while ICBC declined 2%. The CSI 300 Banks Index fell as much as 2.7%, the most since April 25.

For Chinese banks, the non-performing loan ratio of mortgages was well below the level of other forms of lending, according to the banking regulator. At China Construction Bank, only 0.2% of its residential mortgages were bad as of December, compared with 1.42% for total loans.

The latest development comes at a time when renewed risks of Covid restrictions also pose a threat to the industry. A key real estate index fell for a third day Wednesday, heading for the lowest level since March.

Read: How China’s property bond plunge is spreading

A Bloomberg index of China’s high-yield dollar bonds fell to the lowest in a decade as of Tuesday. Domestic bonds of large property developers, including Gemdale Corp. and Country Garden Holdings Co., also slumped to record lows.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-homebuyers-across-22-cities-062113892.html


9. Home Prices Slowdown but the U.S. is Still Under Built

@robanderson_stl

While the cyclical story could continue to weigh on the Homebuilding sub-industry, long-term fundamentals remain strong. NDR estimates around a 2.5 million unit shortage in housing for 2022 due to persistent underbuilding since the GFC. 2/4

https://twitter.com/robanderson_stl


10. ‘They couldn’t even scream any more. They were just sobbing’: the amateur investors ruined by the crypto crash

The Guardian Sirin Kale

The mania around bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies was fuelled by a social media hype machine unprecedented in the history of financial markets. Investors touted new coins that were amassing huge returns, hung off the tweets of crypto-influencers and spoke in impenetrable jargon. “Demand for bitcoin related purely to the level of interest in this new technology, and that interest was manipulated by the companies that offered different cryptocurrencies and exchanges and startups,” Yarovaya says. “All of this happened on social media, meaning that investors didn’t even know whether there was genuine interest in crypto, or lots of Twitter bots encouraging people to buy. The system wasn’t transparent.”

There are eight stages of crypto-crash grief.

Shock. “I couldn’t eat or sleep for two nights,” says Alla Driksne, a 34-year-old chef from London. “I got sick from the stress.” She has lost her life savings – a six-figure sum – in the Celsius freeze.

Denial. “I always thought the next project would bring me back up again and I’d cash out before it crashed,” says Roy. “In the next cycle, I’m going to try. In the next cycle, I’m going to do it again.” A part of him still believes this is possible.

Anger. Alex Koh, a 41-year-old engineer and personal finance YouTuber from Glasgow, directs his towards Do Kwon, the South Korean entrepreneur who founded terra/luna. Koh says he lost enough to buy a four-bedroom house in London. Kwon has been accused of fraud by five investors based in South Korea; he is being investigated there by a financial crimes unit and in the US by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The rollercoaster has taken crypto holders on a downward spiral. Many people have been caused serious financial pain

Susannah Streeter

Bargaining. Vahid, a 31-year-old from London, has used Twitter to plead for his money with Alex Mashinsky, the founder of Celsius. Vahid’s life savings, more than £50,000 in cryptocurrency, is locked in his Celsius account. Vahid had planned to use the money to start a business or buy a house. For support, he spends his time on conference calls with other Celsius victims; I listen in to one. “I know anything short of getting your native token [initial investment] back is unacceptable,” says one investor, with desperation in his voice. “But would you rather get back 10%, or 20%, or 34%, you know? Now, I’m hoping it’s not a complete loss.”

Depression. “I thought I’d be able to retire early,” says Koh. “But it’s all gone down the drain. I’ve never cried so much in my life.”

Acceptance and hope. “I worked my ass off doing 16-hour days for six years to earn this money,” says Driksne. “This is hard-earned money. That’s what hurts the most. I lost six years of hard work. But I am trying to stay positive. I’ll make it back again.”

Shame. Vahid hasn’t told anyone he has lost his life savings. “I don’t want people turning around to me, saying: you should have taken your money out last year,” he says. I ask him if he is embarrassed. “Of course,” he responds.

Processing. “I hope that I can show that I am willing to learn and accept my mistakes,” says Koh. “If I rebound from this, perhaps I can be an inspiration to people elsewhere around the world – or my kids, at least.”

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/jul/12/they-couldnt-even-scream-any-more-they-were-just-sobbing-the-amateur-investors-ruined-by-the-crypto-crash

Topley’s Top 10 – July 11, 2022

1. Inflation Adjusted S&P Returns Worst in Modern Times

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are US inflation-adjusted stock market returns during past episodes of turmoil:

The Daily Shot Blog https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-july-8th-2022/

2. Are Commodities Third Peaking Asset Class?

Callum Thomas-It’s the old textbook market cycle in progress: first bonds peak, then stocks peak, then commodities peak… At it’s simplest, price just reflects the progression of the business cycle (and inflation/monetary policy)

https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas

3. U.S. Dollar Record Strength

ZeroHedge Blog-Earnings Season The simple math on S&P 500 earnings from currency is that for every percentage point increase on a year-on-year basis it’s approximately a 0.5x hit to EPS growth. At today’s 16% year-on-year level, that translates into an 8% headwind for S&P 500 EPS growth, all else equal.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-soaring-dollar-will-crush-earnings-growth-and-snuff-rally-stocks

4. Driving Electric Car in Germany Getting Very Expensive

Electricity Pricing in Germany

Michael A. Arouet
https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1546107176116260865/photo/1

5. Three Popular Sentiment Measures Combined…Hit GFC Lows

Investors Sentiment as Contra Indicator….All Hitting Lows
Bespoke Blog -The more bearish turn at the expense of bulls witnessed in this week’s AAII survey was echoed by other readings on sentiment like the Investors Intelligence survey and NAAIM Exposure index. Combining all three of these sentiment readings into one composite, overall outlooks for the market took a further bearish turn this week with the average survey currently 1.8 standard deviations below its historical norm. That is slightly better than earlier this spring, but still, the only period since the mid-2000s with similarly pessimistic readings was in late 2008 and into 2009.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/bulls-back-below-20-2

6. Short Duration 1-3 year Bonds -3.5% vs. 20 Year Bond -23%

www.yahoofinance.com

7. Treasury Market Volatility Traded Back to Covid Crisis Levels in 2022

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-11/jpmorgan-s-josh-younger-explains-why-the-bond-market-keeps-getting-shocked?sref=GGda9y2L

8. Amazon Spent $700m Policing Counterfeiting Last Year

This was 2019
Amazon puts out counterfeit warning

9.Americans on Gun Laws

From the Big Picture Blog-by Barry Ritholtz

https://ritholtz.com/2022/07/sunday-reads-281/

10. 3 Ways to Not Feel Overwhelmed Anymore

Psychology Today-Research explains how to withstand the toughest of emotions-Mark Travers Ph.D.
We all feel like we’re being held hostage by our emotions every now and then. While emotions can be overwhelming at times, most psychologists will tell you that they can also be powerful carriers of information about your mind and personality.

However, it can be difficult to understand your emotions from a detached distance if they begin to overpower you. To combat this vulnerability, here are three research-backed ways you can gain more control over problematic or painful emotions and build mental fortitude.

#1. Undo rejection through objectivity

According to psychologist Mark Leary of Duke University, rejection can come in six forms:

  1. Criticism
  2. Betrayal
  3. Active dissociation (for example, a romantic breakup)
  4. Passive dissociation (like not being included)
  5. Being unappreciated
  6. Being teased

Hurt feelings resulting from any of the mentioned events can result in the experience of the “rejection emotion,” which can then turn into sadness, anger, or even anxiety.

“People don’t need to be actually rejected to have the subjective experience of rejection,” says Leary. “For instance, even though we know that our romantic partners accept and love us, they can (unintentionally) make us feel rejected and hurt our feelings in certain situations.”

In order to tackle our rejection emotion, Leary explains that we must first understand why it is so important for us to feel accepted. Simply put, people feel accepted when they think that they have high “relational value,” or worth, to another person or group of people. A great deal of our behavior, thought, and emotion, according to Leary, is driven by our need to belong to groups.

Therefore, Leary advises, if you are experiencing the rejection emotion, make sure that you do not underestimate your relational value because of ambiguous social cues or misinterpreting neutral feedback from others as negative feedback. This is necessary because most people go through life feeling more rejected than they actually are.

“Viewed in this way, the first step to address one’s concerns with rejection is to examine the evidence as objectively as possible, trying not to read too much negativity into them,” warns Leary.

Having said that, if you are going through an obvious and painful rejection, here’s how you can boost your feeling of acceptance:

  • Learn to ignore the negative reactions of people whose opinions of us are unimportant
  • Seek connections with people with whom we have a higher relational value
  • If necessary, make changes in ourselves that would increase the degree to which other people value having connections with us

#2. Watch closely for emotion dysregulation

Emotion dysregulation is best understood as the repeated encroachment of unhelpful emotional patterns. According to researchers, it lies at the core of a range of psychological disorders.

Emotional dysregulation can be elusive, as it can result from multiple causes. According to psychologist Arela Agako, instances of this phenomenon coalesce around five themes:

  1. Brain activation
  2. Physiology
  3. Cognition
  4. Behavior
  5. Individual experience

“We can draw some conclusions from the overlap between all the different theories out there that try to define emotions and emotion dysregulation,” says Agako. “For example, in the case of fear, our amygdala gets activated (brain activation), we notice a lot of changes in our body, such as our heart rate increasing (physiology), we might notice thoughts related to danger (cognition), we might have an urge to run away (behavior), and we also might have different ways of describing this experience (experiential).”

An emotion can be activated when it is not helpful or needed. Or, an emotion can fail to activate when it is needed. It is not uncommon for the intensity of an emotion to be too high or too low than what is helpful in the moment. Moreover, emotions can last longer or shorter than we need them to. These things happen to everyone because our brains and bodies aren’t perfect.

If you are someone who struggles with emotional dysregulation, Agako has the following advice:

  • Make time for the emotion, preferably in a comfortable setting and when you can dedicate a few minutes to it without being interrupted
  • Notice precisely what the emotion feels like in your body
  • Try to name the emotion
  • Reflect on whether the emotion was justified by the situation or whether it came from somewhere else
  • If the emotion is justified, ask yourself what the emotion is telling you you need at that moment. Is it finding social support? Is it figuring out a way to get out of a dangerous situation? Is it apologizing to someone? Or, is it something else?
  • If the emotion isn’t justified, ask yourself if there is another way to think of the situation or what you might say to a friend who is in the same situation

#3. Use the “thinking threshold” to ride your emotional wave

Emotions are like waves: they have a beginning, middle, and end. Something (a situation in life, a thought about the past) triggers an emotion inside us. Like waves, emotions rise up, peak, and eventually come back down.

A study by psychologist Jennifer Villieux identified the “thinking threshold” as a level of emotional intensity above which thinking is impaired—where thinking is driven more by emotion than by logic. When one reaches this point, it is inadvisable to use strategies like cognitive reappraisal that require you to think logically as a means to regulate your emotions. Beyond the thinking threshold, complex cognition is impaired.

Therefore, using behavioral or sensory strategies is a better idea when above the thinking threshold, like splashing your face with ice water, taking a walk, or getting a hug.

Villieux also has the following words of wisdom for anyone who relates to this experience:

  1. Sometimes emotions need to be felt. It’s okay to just ride it out, because the emotion will not last forever. It will come down because that’s what emotions do; waves crest and then recede.
  2. In some cases, cognitive appraisal as a coping strategy may not be the best choice. For instance, cognitive reappraisal may lead to rationalizing of an abuser’s actions in a predatory or abusive relationship.
  3. When you have made it past the emotional peak, make a concerted effort to use cognitive strategies to avoid such surges in the future. So, when you can think clearly, try to engage in some perspective-taking, problem-solving, or reflection on the experience.

Conclusion: Emotions are a big part of our lives, whether we like them or not. With a little bit of perspective, planning, and objectivity, they can transform from being our kryptonite to being our North Star.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/social-instincts/202207/3-ways-not-feel-overwhelmed-anymore

Topley’s Top 10 – July 12, 2022

1. M2 Money Growth Goes Negative

Jim Reid Deutsche Bank-Regular readers will know I’m a staunch believer in inflation being everywhere and (mostly) always a monetary phenomenon. It was no surprise to me then that the rapid increase in M2 balances stemming from the muscular response to the Covid-crisis wound up being persistently inflationary and not transitory, especially when combined with supply constraints. I still believe that inflation will stay structurally elevated in the years ahead for reasons I have detailed many times (deglobalisation, demographics, ESG, etc.); however, there is one warning sign for me at the moment and that’s the rate of change in US M2.

The three-month growth rate in M2 hit only 0.02% at the end of May, that’s the 2nd percentile of M2 growth in data going back to 1959 as you can see in the chart, and on the precipice of turning negative. As you can also see, negative M2 growth rates are extremely rare in the modern era, even during recessions.

Notably, the data is only through May, before the Fed’s QT began in June, which should continue to lead to deposit growth being as weak as it has been recently. When the Fed lets securities mature un-reinvested, the Treasury Department (or MBS issuers) must turn to the public to finance the balances rolling off the Fed’s balance sheet. When the public pays for those balances out of current cash on hand, their deposits are transferred to the Treasury Department (or MBS issuer), effectively removing them from the banking system and monetary aggregates.

Where does that leave me? I still think my core inflation view holds. Not only are we still experiencing an inflationary overhang from the tremendous growth in monetary aggregates (see the peak in the chart), even if monetary aggregate growth stalls, the level of excess savings remains extraordinary, all while labour markets are still historically tight, thus replenishing those bank accounts with pay checks. In fact while the correlation between M2 and inflation isn’t perfect, the correlation works best with around a 30-month lag. Given that M2 YoY growth was 26.9% in February 2021, the overhang might last a while yet.

Nevertheless, the risk that M2 is now on a path lower is one worth keeping an eye on.

2. Earnings Season–Analysts Estimates Still Above Long-Term Trend

Real Investment Advice Blog-Lance Roberts

Over the long term, the economy grows at about 6%. Therefore, earnings growth also runs at roughly ~6% on a peak-to-peak basis. However, analysts suggest that earnings growth into 2023 will run well above the historical growth rate despite forecasts of much slower economic activity.

To put that into perspective, analysts’ estimates are currently at the most significant deviation above that 6% earnings growth trend.

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/earnings-recession-coming-as-fed-hikes-rates/

3. Jobs Market Showing No Signs of Recession..2 Job Openings Per Unemployed Person

Sam RO This is in line with BLS data released on Wednesday that showed the layoff rate remained near a record low of 0.9% in May.

So far, we’ve been looking at labor market metrics that reflect the past and the present. But what about the future?
Based on job openings data, it’s pretty clear that the demand for more labor continues to be very strong.
According to BLS data released Wednesday, there was a whopping 11.25 million job openings in May. That compares to the 5.95 million unemployed during the same period.

Sam Ro, CFA https://www.tker.co/p/june-jobs-payrolls-not-recession Found at Abnormal Returns Blog www.abnormalreturns.com

4. U.S. Retail Gas Prices Down 25 Days in a Row-Y Charts

https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_price

5. India Surpasses China in Population

https://www.axios.com/2022/07/11/china-india-world-population-trends

6. Refinance Market Kaput

Wolf Street

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/07/11/cash-out-refis-with-holy-moly-mortgage-rates-to-pay-for-remodeling-projects-professional-home-remodelers-face-challenges/

7. Who Imported Russian Fuels Since War? Who Shut it Down?

The Top Importers of Russian Fossil Fuels-Visual Capitalist

The EU bloc accounted for 61% of Russia’s fossil fuel export revenue during the 100-day period.
Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands—members of both the EU and NATO—were among the largest importers, with only China surpassing them.

China overtook Germany as the largest importer, importing nearly 2 million barrels of discounted Russian oil per day in May—up 55% relative to a year ago. Similarly, Russia surpassed Saudi Arabia as China’s largest oil supplier.
The biggest increase in imports came from India, buying 18% of all Russian oil exports during the 100-day period. A significant amount of the oil that goes to India is re-exported as refined products to the U.S. and Europe, which are trying to become independent of Russian imports.

Reducing Reliance on Russia
In response to the invasion of Ukraine, several countries have taken strict action against Russia through sanctions on exports, including fossil fuels.

The U.S. and Sweden have banned Russian fossil fuel imports entirely, with monthly import volumes down 100% and 99% in May relative to when the invasion began, respectively.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/whos-still-buying-fossil-fuels-from-russia/

8. EV Car Prices +22% Year Over Year …More Models Coming.

  • 2022 is expected to bring an especially dramatic increase in the number of EVs on the U.S. market: from the roughly 62 models available at present to at least 100.
  • Half of U.S. adults (51%) say they are likely to consider purchasing an electric vehicle in the next decade, up from 39% in January and 43% in March-April.

The Coming Electric Vehicle Wave: In 2022, Consumers Get Options BY LISA MARTINE JENKINS https://morningconsult.com/2021/12/22/electric-vehicles-consumers-2022/

https://cleantechnica.com/2022/03/05/the-worlds-top-selling-electric-vehicles-january-2022/

9. Start-Up Funding Falls the Most It Has Since 2019

The drop was another fallout of rising inflation and widespread economic uncertainty, and a retreat after years of a funding boom.

By Erin Griffith SAN FRANCISCO — For the first time in three years, start-up funding is dropping.

The numbers are stark. Investments in U.S. tech start-ups plunged 23 percent over the last three months, to $62.3 billion, the steepest fall since 2019, according to figures released on Thursday by PitchBook, which tracks young companies. Even worse, in the first six months of the year, start-up sales and initial public offerings — the primary ways these companies return cash to investors — plummeted 88 percent, to $49 billion, from a year ago.

The declines are a rarity in the start-up ecosystem, which enjoyed more than a decade of outsize growth fueled by a booming economy, low interest rates and people using more and more technology, from smartphones to apps to artificial intelligence. That surge produced now-household names such as Airbnb and Instacart. Over the past decade, quarterly funding to high growth start-ups fell just seven times.

But as rising interest rates, inflation and uncertainty stemming from the war in Ukraine have cast a pall over the global economy this year, young tech companies have gotten hit. And that foreshadows a difficult period for the tech industry, which relies on start-ups in Silicon Valley and beyond to provide the next big innovation and growth engine.

“We’ve been in a long bull market,” said Kirsten Green, an investor with Forerunner Ventures, adding that the pullback was partly a reaction to that frenzied period of dealmaking, as well as to macroeconomic uncertainty.

“What we’re doing right now is calming things down and cutting out some of the noise.”

The start-up industry still has plenty of money behind it, and no collapse is imminent. Investors continue to do deals, funding 4,457 transactions in the last three months, up 4 percent from a year ago, according to PitchBook.

Venture capital firms, including Andreessen Horowitz and Sequoia Capital, are also still raising large new funds that can be deployed into young companies, collecting $122 billion in commitments so far this year, PitchBook said.

Venture capitalists, such as those at Sequoia Capital and Lightspeed Venture Partners, have cautioned young firms to cut costs, conserve cash and prepare for hard times. In response, many start-ups have laid off workers and instituted hiring freezes. Some companies — including the payments start-up Fast, the home design company Modsy and the travel start-up WanderJaunt — have shut down.

The pain has also reached young companies that went public in the last two years. Shares of onetime start-up darlings like the stocks app Robinhood, the scooter start-up Bird Global and the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase have tumbled between 86 percent and 95 percent below their highs from the last year. Enjoy Technology, a retail start-up that went public in October, filed for bankruptcy last week. Electric Last Mile Solutions, an electric vehicle start-up that went public in June 2021, said last month that it would liquidate its assets.

Kyle Stanford, an analyst with PitchBook, said the difference this year was that the huge checks and soaring valuations of 2021 were not happening. “Those were unsustainable,” he said.

The start-up market has now reached a kind of stalemate — particularly for the largest and most mature companies — which has led to a lack of action in new funding, said Mark Goldberg, an investor at Index Ventures. Many start-up founders don’t want to raise money these days at a price that values their company lower than it was once worth, while investors don’t want to pay the elevated prices of last year, he said. The result is stasis.
“It’s pretty much frozen,” Mr. Goldberg said.

Additionally, so many start-ups collected huge piles of cash during the recent boom times that few have needed to raise money this year, he said. That could change next year, when some of the companies start running low on cash. “The logjam will break at some point,” he said.

David Spreng, an investor at Runway Growth Capital, a venture debt investment firm, said he had seen a disconnect between investors and start-up executives over the state of the market.

“Pretty much every V.C. is sounding alarm bells,” he said. But, he added, “the management teams we’re talking to, they all seem to think: We’ll be fine, no worries.”

The one thing he has seen every company do, he said, is freeze its hiring. “When we start seeing companies miss their revenue goals, then it’s time to get a little worried,” he said.

Still, the huge piles of capital that venture capital firms have accumulated to back new start-ups has given many in the industry confidence that it will avoid a major collapse.

“When the spigot turns back on, V.C. will be set up to get back to putting a lot of capital back to work,” Mr. Stanford said. “If the broader economic climate doesn’t get worse.”

Start-Up Funding Falls the Most It Has Since 2019 – The New York Times (nytimes.com)

Found at Morning Brew https://www.morningbrew.com/daily

10. 4 Beliefs That Take Time Away from Your Day

By
Cris Antonio
June 24, 2022 10:00 AM EST | 5 min read
What’s the best gift you can give to someone? It’s definitely not diamonds, expensive shoes, or the latest gadget – it’s your time.
Time is the most valuable thing we own because we can never take it back. However, many of us still struggle with our day-to-day tasks.

We seem to not have enough hours in the day for work, family, or friends – but we surely have time to spare when watching YouTube videos, playing with our cat, or endlessly scrolling through our Twitter feed.

Are there things that take time away from you?

Before you blame your demanding boss or the limited hours in the day, you should look within yourself first.

Have you ever thought that perhaps you have beliefs that might be hindering your productivity? Do you let mundane activities take time away from you?

As the old Chinese proverb goes: “be careful of your thoughts for they become your words, and your words become your actions”.

4 Beliefs that take time away from your precious day

Here are the top four beliefs that a lot of people believe these days – and how they take time away from us and the things that truly matter.

1.) “I need to work overtime.”

Unless it’s absolutely necessary, experts advise against it because it’s detrimental to both the employee and the business.

If you’ve been doing plenty of overtime lately, you could already be experiencing some of its negative side effects, such as fatigue, chronic headaches, stomach upset, and signs of depression.

Aside from the health risks, you also reduce your quality of life and become dependent on your overtime pay. Instead of budgeting your paycheck, you see overtime as a convenient way to earn extra cash (when you could be channeling your energy into more creative side hustles

It’s a necessary evil in life – but you don’t have to believe that it’s the only way to be successful or to make more money. Unless required, always aim to leave the workplace after your shift.

Don’t let overtime take time away from vital aspects of your life, such as your relationships. Have coffee with friends or play with your children.

2.) “I can do it tomorrow.”

Tomorrow is a better day. But what if it doesn’t come? What if you become swamped with other tasks?
Procrastination is the bane of productive, successful people everywhere. Like the famous saying ‘there’s a time and a place for everything’, identify which tasks need to be finished today.
If you feel overwhelmed, create a To-Do list for the most important activities (i.e. finish the business presentation, walk the dog, go grocery shopping, etc.). This should help you stay in control during the day.
After all, tomorrow is a different day.

3.) “I can take several breaks.”

Don’t get me wrong: breaks are good. In fact, a 2014 study proved that employees become more efficient in their tasks if they take 17 minutes of break time for every 52 minutes of hard work.

However, unscheduled or unnecessary breaks could lead to slow output and wasted effort. If you know that you’ll be busy (but you still want to get home on time), strategically take breaks to keep your focus and energy up.

For instance: say you have a report due in three hours. Research and make an outline during the first hour, then pause.

Layout the details and make edits on the second hour. Then, take time away for a 5-minute walk. Lastly, finalize the presentation. Remember: your Twitter Feed can wait.

4.) “I’ll check my email first.”

You have probably heard of the ‘Big Rock Theory’. It’s basically a story about tackling the big concerns of your life first (your Big Rocks) so that everything else (your Little Rocks) will fit into place.

Although this idea was originally intended to help people prioritize things in their life, you can also apply this for everyday use.

Let’s take the previous example of an important report due by the end of the day. On top of that, you need to check and reply to your emails.

Plus, your friends are expecting you for a couple of beers after shift. Now what? Finish your Big Rock (the presentation) first so that it’s quickly out of the way.

Once that’s done, you can simply take time away from the other stuff on your list. As long as there are no more huge surprises, you can end work on time to enjoy the rest of the day.

What beliefs take time away from your day?

You’re probably thinking: but life’s not perfect. In an ideal situation, you can come home early and have enough energy to spend with your loved ones.

Unfortunately no – on most occasions, we need to work overtime. Most days, we just feel like scrolling endlessly on Facebook.

If that’s the case, step back and objectively analyze if such feelings have an underlying cause.

Take the time to reflect on what you need to get done, what you want to accomplish, and who you want to be with.

Be careful with your ideas, because they could shape your actions. But whatever you do, don’t just let things take time away from you. Take back control right away!

Share your thoughts about things that drain your energy during the day with us in the comment section below.

https://everydaypower.com/beliefs-take-time-away/

Topley’s Top 10 – July 13, 2022

1. VDE Vanguard Energy ETF -28% Correction

VDE holding 200 day moving average

Holding Blue uptrend trendline going back to 2020

www.stockcharts.com


2. Small Cap Energy Fast -36% Correction

PSCE Small Cap Energy ETF

www.stockcharts.com


3. Traders Dumped Energy Derivatives Last Week at Fastest Pace Since Covid Crisis

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading Investors dumped petroleum-related derivatives last week at one of the fastest rates of the pandemic era as recession fears intensified – Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 110 million barrels in the six most important petroleum-related futures and options contracts in the week to July 5.  Fund managers have now sold a total of 201 million barrels in the past four weeks, according to position records published by ICE Futures Europe and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.


4. Historical Market Performance After Big Two Quarter Drops

LPL Research

https://iplresearch.com/2022/07/07/reasons-for-optimism-as-second-half-gets-underway/


5. Global Private Equity Performance.

Irrelevant Investor Blog

Charts

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2022/07/09/talk-your-book-the-state-of-venture-capital/


6. Private Market Record Dry Powder

Dry Powder is Committed Capital that has not yet been Called

BII-2022-Midyear Outlook Report.pdf


7. Home Values Rolling Over in Expensive Markets

Bloomberg-Jonathan Levin

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-12/housing-inventories-may-not-save-prices-after-all?sref=GGda9y2L


8. Rent Inflation Showing No Signs of Slowing.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/johnburns7/


9. Jail Population -25%

A report out this week from USAFacts explored how the US jail population changed during the pandemic — noting that the number of jail inmates had fallen by 25% from 2019 to 2020.

Jailhouse drop

Jails differ from prisons in that they are usually reserved for those awaiting trials or serving sentences under a year for less serious crimes. The falling jail numbers, which followed a ten-year stretch of relative stability, were largely attributed to an increase in expedited releases and a fall in arrests, according to the Bureau of Justice Statistics. Much of the reduction took place at the beginning of the pandemic as authorities looked to ditch some jailhouse detainees to prevent overcrowding, bringing forward the release dates of around 28% of inmates.

The fall in inmates varied depending on charges, with less serious misdemeanor charges seeing the largest fall — 45% year-on-year — across the country.

More broadly the nation experienced an equally-dramatic drop in arrests, with total arrests dropping from 10.1m to 7.6m according to the FBI’s Uniform Crime report, which also contributed to a smaller jail population.

www.chartr.com


10. Americans Have Stopped Moving

Scott Galloway@profgalloway

The tech exodus narrative is a distraction. The real domestic migration trend is … less migration. Specifically, people aren’t moving. In 1948 roughly a fifth of Americans changed residences. That number has been steadily declining since. During the pandemic, we read opinion pieces about everyone quitting their job and moving to Maine. There was a feeling that migration habits were changing; in reality the song remains (increasingly) the same. In 2021 only 8.4% of Americans moved — an all-time low.

It’s been happening for several decades, though nobody can figure out why. An aging population and a younger cohort described as the “complacent generation” are factors, but there must be more. Lack of portable health care and a decline in the lifestyle once sought in the West could also be explainers. My theory is that, like everything else, mobility has become a luxury item costs can only be borne by college grads (who are themselves increasingly anchored by student loan debt).

American mobility has been halved in three decades. Contrast that with China, where over 370 million people live somewhere besides their home region. (Another contrast: A mere 1 million foreigners live in China, placing it 54th among nations by immigrant population.) Why does it matter? Because when capital is not allocated to its best use, growth declines. A lack of mobility also affects culture, resulting in less dynamism, increased aversion to risk, and suspicion of outsiders. Yes, Covid spurred some relocation, but, like the “renewed” labor movement, that’s a blip that likely won’t reverse the secular decline. The problem isn’t that a tech Karen is leaving the Bay Area, it’s that not enough people are leaving any area. “Remote Work” should be called “Work from Home” as it’s decreasingly remote, just at home. Six in 10 people who move stay within their county; eight in 10 stay in-state.

https://www.profgalloway.com/migrant/

Topley’s Top 10 – July 08, 2022

1. Consumer Sentiment and 12 Month Stock Market Returns.

JP Morgan

https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/?gclid=Cj0KCQjw5ZSWBhCVARIsALERCvz6pF3ZOBt3DRza-AgFU8QB1IVs5wrv9YOundIf4gXBWfyG6WoVHxoaAtpLEALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds


2. Currency ETF Performance vs. Crypto

U.S. Dollar +9% YTD vs. Bitcoin Trust -65%

https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright


3. Strong U.S. Dollar and Emerging Markets

This chart shows the emerging markets vs. U.S. dollar-a strong downtrend.  Emerging market dollar denominated debt more expensive and exports more expensive…


4. U.S. Now Europe’s Biggest Natural Gas Supplier

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading-US overtakes Russia as Europe’s top gas supplier.  We’re not even at the end of the beginning of this energy war & Europe remains critically short gas


5. Recession Watch on Transport Stocks

Trucking Index holds 200 week moving average

Dow Transports hold 200 week moving average

www.stockcharts.com


6. Luxury Goods Sellers Back to Covid Levels

Kering -50% correction

LVMH -32% correction

www.stockcharts.com


7. Chinese state airlines to buy almost 300 Airbus jets

Reuters–BEIJING/SYDNEY, July 1 (Reuters) – China’s “Big Three” state airlines pledged on Friday to buy a total of almost 300 Airbus jets, the biggest order by Chinese carriers since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and a breakthrough for Europe as Boeing remains partially frozen out of China.

In apparently coordinated announcements, Air China (601111.SS) and China Southern Airlines (600029.SS) said they would each buy 96 A320neo-family jets worth $12.2 billion at list prices. China Eastern Airlines (600115.SS) said it would buy 100 airplanes of the same type, worth $12.8 billion.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/china-southern-airlines-buy-96-airbus-a320neo-jets-2022-07-01/

The final result-Airbus vs. BA 2021

All in all, it seems as though Airbus has edged ahead as the winner in 2021, though the gap doesn’t seem to be as significant as last year.

  • Aircraft delivered: Airbus
  • Aircraft ordered: Draw
  • Active fleet: Boeing
  • Most flights: Airbus
  • Aircraft scrapped: Airbus

Airbus 3 – 1 Boeing

Of course, the year has had its ups and downs for both carriers. Airbus has been embroiled in the aforementioned A350 paint issue with Qatar Airways with other carriers reportedly affected. Meanwhile, Boeing 787 Dreamliner deliveries still haven’t resumed three months into 2022. That being said, the Boeing 737 MAX was been ungrounded in many territories last year, and continues to perform strongly for the American planemaker.

Which manufacturer won 2021 in your eyes? Let us know what you think and why in the comments!

Sources: Airbus, Boeing, Cirium, ch-aviation.com, Reuters

https://simpleflying.com/airbus-vs-boeing-2021/#:~:text=Boeing%20accounted%20for%208%2C907%2C948%20flights,flights%20scheduled%20for%20the%20year.&text=While%20Airbus%20is%20the%20overall,to%20645%2C220%20with%20Airbus%20aircraft.


8. DeFi Theft …$1.7Billion Stolen in 2022

Barrons-Theft on DeFi isn’t trivial. Protocols accounted for 97% of the $1.7 billion of crypto stolen in 2022 as of May 1, according to blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis. “It’s a major consumer protection issue that you don’t have recourse if you have funds stolen on DeFi,” says Chainalysis Director of Research Kim Grauer, adding that she’s optimistic protocols will get more secure over time.

“There’s no prohibition against wash-trading on crypto exchanges, no prohibition against proprietary trading, no best-execution rules, and no standardized reporting,” says Timothy Massad, a former chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. “It’s this whole lack of a framework where you can’t compare it to securities that concerns me.”

By  [Joe%20Light]Joe LightFollow  https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-crypto-crisis-51656620781?mod=past_editions

From CoinLive https://coinlive.me/the-hacks-in-2022-caused-1-7-billion-in-damage-97-of-which-came-from-defi-18796.html


9. No bids on Chevy’s first NFT, even though it came with a free Corvette Z06

By Andrew J. Hawkins@andyjayhawk  

·   SHAREAll sharing options Chevy’s first foray into non-fungible tokens was a non-fungible dud. The automaker netted zero bids for its first NFT during an auction last month, even though the digital drawing came with a free 2023 Corvette Z06, according to Corvette Blogger.

The NFT, which depicts a lime green Corvette Z06 blasting through a cyberpunk landscape, was created by artist Nick Sullo, who goes by xsullo online. The winning bidder would have also received a unique “Minted Green” Corvette Z06, which will be the only car painted in that color, and an option code RFN, which will “forever associate” the car with the NFT auction. And the Corvette’s VIN number will be in binary because NFTs are digital and computers use binary and you get it.

But alas, there was no winner to ascribe to the blockchain, because mighty Chevy struck out. The automaker was only accepting bids in Ethereum (most NFTs are purchased using Ethereum), the price of which has been extremely volatile in recent weeks. The cryptocurrency has dropped more than 64 percent since April 1st, while the most lauded NFTs have seen their floor price — price for the lowest one on the market — drop more than 70 percent.

BASICALLY, THEY PULLED A MORBIUS.

The auction was held from June 20-24. SuperRare, the NFT marketplace that oversaw the auction, tweeted on June 24th that it would reopen bids for 24 hours because some users “missed” the window. But apparently that didn’t work: the auction closed yet again with zero bids. Basically, they pulled a Morbius.

Trevor Thompkins, a spokesperson for Chevy, shrugged off the disappointment in a statement to Corvette Blogger. “Our first step into Web3 has been educational, and we will continue to explore ways to leverage technology to benefit our customers,” Thompkins said.

No bids on Chevy’s first NFT, even though it came with a free Corvette Z06 – The Verge

From Morningbrew Newsletter https://www.morningbrew.com/daily


10. John Maxwell-Know Your Growth Plan

Success.com Tiger Woods works on his strengths

I was with a group of CEOs and presidents not too long ago and as I was talking to them about this whole process, one of the presidents raised his hand and said, “John, I’m not sure I agree with you when you say not to work on your weaknesses. Take Tiger Woods for example. When he has a bad round of golf, he heads directly to the practice range and may spend two or three hours working on his swing—a perfect example of working on your weaknesses.”

I told this gentleman he just gave a perfect example of the importance of working on your strengths. I think it’s safe to say that Woods is the greatest golfer in the world. So when the greatest golfer in the world is working on his swing because he’s got a little flaw in it, he’s not working on weaknesses. He’s working on strengths. He’s in his Strength Zone working to improve something he’s already good at.

The difference is when I go to the practice range, I’m in my weak zone. For me practice makes permanent. If you’re in your Strength Zone like Woods, practice makes perfect. When I work on my golf swing, I consistently hit a bad shot to the same place every time, which is a big help because then I know where to find it in the woods.

What’s your growth plan?

Success is knowing your purpose in life. But there’s more to it than that; I know people who know their purpose in life but are not successful. You need a growth plan to help you reach your maximum potential. It’s not only knowing what you should do; it’s about growing in that area to maximize and highlight the things that you do well. That’s continual growth.

I had a life-changing experience back in 1973. Attending a seminar in Lancaster, Ohio, a man sitting next to me asked me one of the most important questions I’ve ever been asked. He said, “John, what’s your plan for growth?” I was just a kid in my 20s, not knowing that I was even supposed to have a plan for growth. And so I decided to fake it and proceeded to tell him about my elaborate schedule and how hard I was working toward my goals. I was like a plane circling a field trying to come in for a landing, going around and around until I finally ran out of gas and shut up. As soon as I did he looked at me, smiled and said, “You don’t have a plan, do you?” With a smile, I replied, “Eh, no, no I don’t.”

Then he said words that changed my life. He said, “John, growth is not an automatic process. If you’re going to grow, you need to do so intentionally.” That afternoon I went home and sat down with my wife, Margaret, and said, “I don’t know what a growth plan looks like, but I heard a guy tell me today I needed to have one and I’m going to figure it out.” And I took that whole year to figure out how to do a growth plan, and I’m here to tell you, it changed my life.

That was in the early ’70s. For 30-plus years, I have been on a personal growth plan every year.

The speed of the leader determines the speed of the pack. And the only way that you and I will ever continue to be in front is to continue to learn, grow and make a commitment to it. Highly successful people have a continual thirst for knowledge and are always asking questions.

What you do today determines your success

I don’t think success is a mystery. I think it’s tangible and achievable for everyone, but it’s going to start with this statement: The secret of your success is determined by your daily agenda, by what you and I do—today.

I believe this principle so much I wrote a book called Today Matters, and in the book I write about how we overexaggerate yesterday, we overestimate tomorrow and we underestimate today.

You see, every day you are either repairing or preparing. Every day you’re either trying to fix yesterday—relationships, issues, priorities, lost opportunities—or you are living your life in such a way that you are preparing for tomorrow and setting up success almost as a given.

Highly successful people know their purpose in life, they grow to their maximum potential and they sow seeds that benefit others. They don’t live for themselves. They’re a river, not a reservoir. They understand what significance is—adding vaue to others.

John C. Maxwell

Articles

John C. Maxwell, an internationally respected leadership expert, speaker, and author who has sold more than 18 million books, has been named an inaugural SUCCESS Ambassador. Dr. Maxwell is the founder of EQUIP, a non-profit organization that has trained more than 5 million leaders in 126 countries worldwide. A New York Times, Wall Street Journal and BusinessWeek; best-selling author, Maxwell has written three books that have sold more than a million copies.

https://www.success.com/finding-your-purpose/

Topley’s Top 10 – July 07, 2022

1. Publicly Traded Warehouse Companies -30%+ Corrections

TRNO -35%

EGP -33%

www.stockcharts.com


2. One Month Solar Stocks -4% vs. Energy -22%

TAN solar ETF vs. XLE energy ETF

www.yahoofinance.com


3. Buy Now Pay Later Swedish Unicorn Klarna Valuation $45B to $6B

Valuation re-set for valuation as borrowing costs spike

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-01/klarna-discussing-valuation-cut-to-6-billion-from-45-6-billion?sref=GGda9y2L


4. 20 Day Move in Commodities Third Largest Decline in 90 Years

Jim Reid Deutsche Bank-Earlier this year commodities and bonds saw some of their biggest moves for decades, or all time in some cases, mostly in the direction of higher yields and commodity prices.

Over the last few days, these big moves are back again but mostly in the other direction as recession fears mount and central bank expectations are pared back.

The rolling 20-day move in our commodity index is now seeing around the third largest decline in 90 years (hat tip to DB’s Tom Sykes for pointing out), behind only the GFC, the initial Covid shock, and on a par with that seen in the early days of WWII in 1940. In March, we saw the fourth largest 20-day uptick after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The start of WWII and two occasions in the 1970s were the only bigger moves.

In addition, 10yr bunds have seen their joint largest 10-day fall in yields since reunification, equalling a move seen during the GFC.

2022 has seen many such moves across many different asset classes and as such will go down as one of the most volatile years for financial markets on record.


5. 20 Year Treasury Bond -23% Correction

Another bond chart 50 week thru 200 week to downside

www.stockcharts.com


6. Euro Zone Inflation 8.6% vs. Interest Rates Negative

@Charlie Bilello Eurozone inflation has moved up to 8.6%, its highest level ever. Meanwhile, the ECB is still holding interest rates at negative levels. This is perhaps the greatest disconnect between easy monetary policy and unabating rising prices that the world has ever seen.

https://twitter.com/charliebilello


7. Above Leading to 20 Year Low in Euro vs. Dollar

EURO breaks to new lows

www.stockcharts.com


8. Utility Stocks and Semiconductor Stocks Now Have the Same Forward P/E Ratio 20x

This chart shows XLU utility ETF vs. SMH semiconductor ETF this year….outperformance by utilities led to reversion in valuations

www.stockcharts.com


9. Tesla and China Competition

Unplugged

Last week we discussed how Nike was struggling with its business in China — today it’s Tesla’s turn.

The electric vehicle maker reported that it had delivered just over 250,000 cars globally, an 18% drop on the effort from Q1 when the company had shipped more than 310,000.

Like Nike, Tesla has been struggling with COVID restrictions at its factories. Tesla’s Shanghai factory — known as the Giga Shanghai — had to close multiple times in the first quarter, and broader supply chain constraints like the computer chip shortage haven’t helped either.

Tesla’s minor hiccup follows years of remarkable progress that made it the largest EV manufacturer in the world. But just as it struggles with its operations in China, it’s also facing rising competition from within the country. Chinese rival BYD reported just this week that it sold 641,000 EVs in the first six months of this year, more than Tesla’s 565,000, leading some to proclaim that Tesla has officially been dethroned as the world’s largest EV maker.

Technically some of those BYD sales were not fullbattery electric vehicles, with some hybrid sales included, so the distinction is slightly muddled. Nonetheless, the competition is coming — and, crucially, consumers are expecting it; data from Morning Consult showed that consumers expect to have the choice of more than 130 EV models by 2024. Back in 2010 they only had a few to choose from.

www.chartr.com


10. Ted Roosevelt and Bad Luck

The Daily Stoic-In the late 1800s, Theodore Roosevelt was on a hunting trip in Big Hole Basin in Montana. The trip did not get off to a good start. Upon getting off the train, and searching for a wagon to transport them, Roosevelt and his party immediately ran into the first of many issues. The wagon they found was overpriced, the harnesses were rotting and falling apart, and the horses were spoiled and ill-trained. There wasn’t much use in complaining, Roosevelt later wrote in his wonderful hunting memoir, The Wilderness Hunter, because “on the frontier one soon grows to accept little facts of this kind with bland indifference.”

Because what’s the alternative? Let it ruin the trip? Yell at the horses? Fix the harnesses with your anger? In fact, part of the appeal of the outdoors lifestyle is that it’s a challenge and that it tests us in these little ways. Camping and hunting, the Stoics would have said, are both great metaphors and great training for the difficulties of life.

Bad luck continued on the trip, with mishap after mishap. The wagon got mired at various crossings, the horses were a constant struggle, and the weather was freezing. At one point, it looked like the weather was set to take an even more serious turn. Roosevelt turned to his partner and said casually that he would “rather it didn’t storm.” His partner, even more stoic than Roosevelt, stopped his whistling, looked at him and said, “We’re not having our rathers on this trip,” then cheerfully resumed whistling.

The truth is, we don’t get our rathers in life either. All of us are pulled along by Fate, or the logos as the Stoics would call it, as well as by Fortune. Sometimes they line up with what we want, sometimes they don’t. That’s why amor fati is the right attitude. We have to embrace it. We have to accept the little facts of life. Bland indifference is a start, but cheerful whistling is even better.

https://dailystoic.com

Topley’s Top 10 – July 06, 2022

1. Factor Returns Grid…Dividends, Value and Low Vol Lead

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright

www.dorseywright.com


2. Total Returns 10 Year Treasury the Worst Since 1788

Jim Reid-Deutsche Bank


3. Mega Cap ETF Holding 200 Week Moving Average

Mega Cap also Holding blue trend line going back to 2020

www.stockcharts.com


4. XLE Energy ETF Breaks Blue Trend Line Going Back to 2020

www.stockcharts.com


5. Once Liquidity in Money Supply Stopped…Bitcoin Sell-Off


6. Year Over Year Change in S&P Profit Margins

Ed Yardeni

The table below shows that the forward profit margin of the S&P 500 rose 4.4% y/y through the June 9 week (to a record 13.4%). Only three of the 11 sectors are down over that period: Financials (-1.3%), Consumer Staples (-4.5), and Utilities (-5.0). Outpacing the increase in the margin of the S&P 500 have been Energy (79.0%) Real Estate (18.1), Industrials (8.4), Materials (6.9), and Information Technology (4.5).

https://www.linkedin.com/in/edward-yardeni/


7. Used Car Prices and Subprime Borrowing

@GrahamStephan

(21) Graham Stephan (@GrahamStephan) / Twitter


8. Average Price of New Home at Record Based on Per Capita Disposable Income

@Charlie Bilello The unaffordability of the US housing market has risen to unsustainable levels.

Exhibit A: The average price of a new home in the US is now over 10x higher than per capita disposable income, the highest ratio in history.


9. Crypto Market Cap History..Breaks $1Trillion

https://coin360.com/charts


10. Sleep Quality Chart

[OC] 2 years of my GF and I tracking the sleep quality impact of various choices/behaviours. These were the 8 most significant effects : dataisbeautiful (reddit.com)

Topley’s Top 10 – June 29, 2022

1. Crude Oil vs. Copper

Two inflation measures disconnect

Jonathan Baird https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathanbaird88/

2. OPEC Pumping Under Quotas

https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban

3. Two-Thirds of Americans Saying High Gas Prices Causing Hardship

Zero Hedge Blog–Two-thirds of Americans say recent increases in the price of gas are causing them hardship, which is up from 52% feeling this financial pinch in April. Although more Americans say they are experiencing “moderate” rather than “severe” hardship, the percentage describing the hardship as severe has risen from 14% to 22%.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/gas-prices-squeezing-americans-more-rate-bidens-economy-poor

4. Leading to Majority of Public Predicting Recession

https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno

5. Professional Investors Majority Betting on Recession Next Year

Jim Reid Deutsche Bank–In terms of preliminary results so far, you can see the risk of a US recession by the end of 2023 has only been building in recent months with 88% of you now thinking it happens by the end of 2023 up from 78% last month.

Interestingly only 17% believe it starts this year (up from 13% last month) so I think the market narrative of a more imminent recession has moved quicker than the responses. Of these over a third (so c.6% of the total responses) believe the recession has already started.

I still think 2023 is more likely than 2022 but it’s clear the risks are building.

6. Massive Cash Pile to Offset Recession

Irrelevant Investor Blog

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2022/06/29/animal-spirits-are-we-sure-a-recession-is-coming/

7. Last Week Saw Retail Selling but No Capitulation Yet

Callum Thomas Chart Storm https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/

Source:  @GunjanJS

8. China State-Owned Industry Market Cap Weight History

WisdomTree- Liqian RenDirector of Modern Alpha

The two charts below illustrate that a majority of Chinese equity market cap is in now in non-state-owned companies, and a majority of Chinese citizens work in the non-state-owned part of the economy. 

This presence of deep market economy and state power is a unique phenomenon. China will be a formidable challenge for the U.S. If U.S. understanding of China is just horror stories about state power, it may make people here feel good, but it won’t help the U.S. compete.

https://www.wisdomtree.com/blog/2022-06-23/chinas-economy-geopolitical-risk-and-zero-covid-policies?utm_source=linkedin&utm_medium=social&utm_term=organic&utm_content=100005334&utm_campaign=china

9. Hours Worked to Cover Mortgage Payments Hitting 2007 Levels

Schwab-Liz Ann Sonders

https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/cant-find-my-way-home

10. How You Define the Problem Determines Whether You Solve It

HBR by Art Markman

Typical stories of creativity and invention focus on finding novel ways to solve problems. James Dyson found a way to adapt the industrial cyclone to eliminate the bag in a vacuum cleaner. Pablo Picasso and Georges Braque developed cubism as a technique for including several views of a scene in the same painting. The desktop operating system developed at Xerox PARC replaced computer commands with a spatial user interface.

These brief descriptions of these innovations all focus primarily on the novel solution. The problem they solve seems obvious.

But framing innovations in this way makes creativity seem like a mystery. How could so many people have missed the solution to the problem for so long? And how in the world did the first person come up with that solution at all?

In fact, most people who come up with creative solutions to problems rely on a relatively straightforward method: finding a solution inside the collective memory of the people working on the problem. That is, someone working to solve the problem knows something that will help them find a solution — they just haven’t realized yet that they know it.

Sure, some people stumble on the answer. When Archimedes stepped into the bath and noticed the water level rise, he lucked into the solution for finding the volume of an ornately decorated crown. And others invest decades and millions (or even billions) of dollars into research and development (see drug companies). But tapping into the individual’s or group’s memory is one of the most cost effective and repeatable problem-solving approaches.

The key to this method is to get the right information out of memory to solve the problem.

Human memory is set up in a way that encountering a piece of information serves as a cue to retrieve other related things. If I ask you to imagine a birthday party, you can quickly retrieve information about birthday parties you have attended, and you will likely be able to think about party hats, cake, and singing “Happy Birthday.” You don’t have to expend much effort to recall this information; it emerges as a result of the initial cue.

If you want to retrieve something else from memory, you need to change the cue. If I now ask you to think about salad, you can likely call to mind information about lettuce, tomatoes, and dressing, even though you were thinking about birthday parties just a minute ago.

When doing creative problem solving, the statement of the problem is the cue to memory. That is what reaches in to memory and draws out related information.

In order to generate a variety of possible solutions to a problem, then, the problem solver (or group) can change the description of the problem in ways that lead new information to be drawn from memory.

For example, it is hard to see how Dyson would have gotten to industrial cyclones from thinking about vacuum cleaner bags. But an alternative way to describe the problem is that a vacuum takes in a combination of dirt and air and has to separate the dirt from the air. Bags do this by acting as a filter that traps the dirt and lets the air pass through pores in the bag. But there are many ways to separate particles from air. Industrial cyclones create a spinning mass of air that throws particles to the edges by centrifugal force.

This way of describing a vacuum is that it generalizes the problem by removing some of the specific components typically used to solve it. The phrase “separating dirt from air” does not mention the bag at all. When you focus on the bag, you’ll naturally be reminded of aspects of bags. The large list of patent numbers on most vacuum cleaner bags suggests that many inventors have done just that. A radically new solution to a problem, though, requires a new problem statement.

So how do you create the problem statement you need to find a solution to your business problem? Unfortunately, there is no ideal problem statement. Instead, the most consistently creative people and groups are ones that find many different ways to describe the problem being solved. Some of those statements will be specific and talk about the objects being acted on (e.g. vacuum bags). That leads to retrieval of specific information that is highly related to the problem (e.g. different types of vacuum bags). Then, groups should find several ways to describe the essence of the problem being solved in ways that focus on the relationships among the objects or a more abstract description of the goal (e.g. separate dirt from air). Each of these descriptions will help people to recall knowledge that is more distantly related to the domain in which the problem is stated.

Most of us have been looking in the wrong place for our creative insights. We ask people to “think outside the box,” but we should be asking people to find more descriptions of the box and see what that causes us to remember.

https://hbr.org/2017/06/how-you-define-the-problem-determines-whether-you-solve-itutm_medium=social&utm_campaign=hbr&utm_source=LinkedIn&tpcc=orgsocial_edit

Topley’s Top 10 – June 23, 2022

1. Inflation Relief–Fertilizer and Used Car Prices Rollover

@Charlie Bilello Positive Signs on the Inflation Front

Fertilizer prices peaked in late March and have been trending downward since, now at their lowest prices since late January. This is very important given their high correlation with food prices. Hopefully, we’ll see this trend continue.

Used Car prices are down 6% over the last 6 months. In 2020, this was one of the first areas to spike higher, in advance of broader inflationary measures. Hopefully, the current downturn is a leading indicator of lower inflation rates to come.


2. Inflation Relief-China Housing Slump to Continue

Bloomberg-While global attention is focused on the economic impact of coronavirus lockdowns in Shanghai and Beijing, the slump in China’s housing market is likely to have even more profound implications.

An official index that tracks apartment and house sales has posted year-on-year declines for 11 months straight—a record since China created a private property market in the 1990s. With demand for services and commodities generated by housing construction and sales accounting for about 20% of gross domestic product, that represents a big drag on growth this year.

Even if Beijing wanted a construction boom, the fundamentals aren’t there. China’s massive urbanization process is maturing: Population growth in towns and cities dipped below 1% last year for the first time since 1996. In more developed provinces such as Guangdong in the south, about 75% of the population is urban—not far off the US rate of 83%.

Investment in housing accounts for about 11% of China’s GDP, and that will fall closer to 7% by 2030, according to a study by the Lowy Institute, a think tank in Sydney. Other kinds of investment such as infrastructure and factory construction won’t expand fast enough to fill the gap created by shrinking spending on apartment building, it argues.

China’s Property Slump Is a Bigger Threat Than Its Lockdowns https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-22/china-housing-market-slowdown-drags-economy?srnd=premium&sref=GGda9y2L


3. No Demand Destruction Yet………Gas prices aren’t leading to less driving — yet

Ben Geman, author of Axios Generate

Axios on facebook

Axios on twitter

Axios on linkedin

Axios on email

Data: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Energy Information Administration; Chart: Simran Parwani/Axios

The rise in U.S. fuel prices isn’t yet spurring a major pullback in driving, but that could soon change, a new Dallas Fed analysis finds.

The big picture: Gas demand is historically not very sensitive to prices.

  • But “prices may be closer to consumers’ pain threshold than inflation-adjusted prices might suggest,” Dallas Fed economist Garrett Golding writes.
  • If they rise higher, “expect consumers to respond by cutting back on fuel consumption and overall spending sooner than later.”

What we’re watching: Remote work options could reduce demand, per the report, but it’s “too early to fully assess the impact.”

  • And many low-wage workers — the ones most hurt by high costs — lack that choice.

https://www.axios.com/2022/06/22/drivers-absorb-pump-pain-for-now


4. Energy Commodity vs. Energy Stocks

Kailash Concepts-Our team believes the disparity between the change in the commodity prices vs. the stocks is a compelling sign of just how little credit investors are giving the energy sector.

Over the last three years, natural gas prices are up 232%, while the Energy Sector’s stock prices have only risen 52%. Said differently, natural gas prices have risen 180% more than energy stocks since April 2019.

The last time the commodity ran this far ahead of the stocks was in November of 2000. That date would prove to be the start of a seven-year bull market for energy stocks, which would destroy the S&P500.

Get our insights delivered directly to your inbox: https://lnkd.in/gMa57nt4

https://kailashconcepts.com/charts-for-the-curious-signup/


5. Blown Up..Trillion in Market Cap Poof

by Michael Batnick Irrelevant Investor Blog

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2022/06/20/blown-up/


6. Celsius Blowup

Scott Galloway@profgalloway
What happened with Celsius is an example of desire working overtime. Splashed next to a stock photo of a sailbro, Celsius’s website promises: Earn up to 18.63% APY. That promise triggers our greed glands, so we don’t read the fine print and let that stranger in. The fine print, likely read sober, illuminates that this advertised rate is only for “Platinum Loyalty users” depositing “Synthetix” tokens. And the payouts come in the form of CEL, a digital currency from Celsius. CEL is down more than 90% year over year.

No Mercy No Malice Blog https://www.profgalloway.com/trustless/


7. IPO ETF Officially Making Run at Covid Low

www.stockcharts.com


8. Ukraine Refugee Data

Chartr–Data from the Ukrainian borders suggests that a substantial number of refugees that had previously fled Ukraine have now returned home — if only for a short trip.

Data from the UN refugee agency, originally reported on by The Economist, reveals that the gap between the number of people leaving Ukraine and the number of people entering Ukraine has narrowed. Indeed, throughout the first two weeks of June roughly 30,000 people have entered Ukraine per day, mostly staying west where the fighting with Russia has been more muted, suggesting Ukrainians are eager to return home as soon as they can.

Even with the number of returning refugees going up, there’s still a net exodus of people leaving the country — although it’s more of a trickle at 15,000-20,000 people per day compared to the hundreds of thousands that fled in the early days of the invasion.

www.chartr.com


9. Empty Wall Street Offices to Be Revived as Apartments

WSJ-Rebecca PicciottoFollow

A venture of two New York developers has purchased a one-third empty office building in the city’s financial district with plans to convert it into apartments, one of the largest such conversion schemes to be launched during the pandemic.

The venture, which includes Silverstein Properties and Metro Loft, has agreed to pay $180 million for the 30-story building that opened in 1967 and has housed numerous technology and financial-services tenants over the decades. The new owners plan to convert it into 571 market-rate apartments, ranging from studios to three bedrooms, during the next three to four years.

This is “the right evolution of these struggling, underperforming, older office assets that are approaching their obsolescence,” said Nathan Berman, Metro Loft founder and managing principal.

The deal comes as the remote-working trend that became popular during the pandemic is sending vacancies soaring in office markets throughout the country. Businesses adopting hybrid workplace strategies are leasing less space and migrating to newer buildings with modern designs, good locations and abundant amenities.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/empty-wall-street-offices-to-be-revived-as-apartments-11655812801?mod=itp_wsj&ru=yahoo


10. Golden State Wins: Cohesion, Defined Roles, and Andrew Wiggins

Psychology Today-Andrew Wiggins flipped his career narrative in one transcendent playoff run.– Benjamin D. Rosenberg, Ph.D., and Bret Levine, Ph.D.

KEY POINTS

  • Intangibles contributed to the Golden State Warriors winning another NBA title—namely, the science of team cohesion.
  • Team cohesion allows a group to remain united in their effort toward a goal, requiring clearly defined norms and roles.
  • Andrew Wiggins, long considered a bust, had a remarkable postseason because the Warriors’ clear norms and roles unlocked his potential.

The Golden State Warriors are 2022 NBA champions.

Three years removed from their last NBA Finals appearance and two removed from having the worst record in the entire league, that accomplishment seemed unfathomable to most. Since the 2019 NBA Finals loss to the Toronto Raptors, the Warriors had traded one Hall of Fame player (Kevin Durant), and the three other legendary players still on their roster (Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green) dealt with a variety of well-documented injuries.

Any other team might have folded in the face of this adversity, resigning themselves to lick their wounds under the glow of three recent NBA championships. This isn’t any other team, though—the Warriors’ famous culture, driven by superstars Curry, Thompson, and Green, isn’t about “satisficing.” Through a series of shrewd personnel moves and a whole lot of cohesion, the Warriors climbed back to the mountaintop.

One of these acquisitions, in particular, played an outsized role in helping the Warriors win a fourth NBA title in eight years: former number one overall draft pick, the much-criticized Andrew Wiggins. Many of the critiques levied against Wiggins in his first six seasons boiled down to a perceived lack of attention to detail, drive, and ability to be The Guy.

Somehow, Wiggins was able to overcome all of these criticisms in one fell swoop to become, arguably, the Warriors’ second-best player throughout the playoffs.

The science of team cohesion suggests that, for Wiggins, having clear group norms and a clearly defined role seems to have unlocked his potential.

The Andrew Wiggins saga

As a top NBA draft prospect, Wiggins’ profile was clear: He had the potential to be an elite athlete and defender immediately. Because of this high ceiling, Wiggins went number one overall to the Cleveland Cavaliers but was quickly shipped to the Minnesota Timberwolves. Through no fault of his own, Wiggins landed with a dysfunctional franchise with no norms to speak of; as the team transitioned away from the Kevin Garnett era, it lacked a clear tone-setter and culture-maker. Plus, they sucked: The Wolves went 16-66 in Wiggins’ first year, followed by 29-53 in his second.

In addition to lacking clear institutional norms, the Wolves’ role for Wiggins was a mismatch to both his talents and his personality. As such a high pick, Wiggins was expected to be the team’s top offensive and defensive option—an alpha dog in the Kobe Bryant mold. Wiggins, though, is a relatively reserved, family-focused guy. Outwardly, at least, Wiggins doesn’t appear to be the rabid competitor that Minnesota expected him to be.

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These two factors—a missing norm to tell the moldable rookie how to behave and a lack of a clear role—caused a mismatch between Wiggins’ potential and what he became in Minnesota. And, after 5.5 seasons, Wiggins earned several feared titles, like bust and lazy player. Even when the Warriors traded for him in 2020, the deal was generally considered a stepping stone for the team to acquire someone they really wanted.

A model of team cohesion

Every title run has numerous causal factors, perhaps foremost talent and a little bit of luck. For these Warriors, though, intangibles like Championship DNA, grit, and love play an outsized role.

Each of these factors is important, but the one that keeps surfacing again and again for the Warriors is team cohesion—“the tendency for a group to stick together and remain united in the pursuit of its instrumental objectives [1].”

One well-regarded model of team cohesion, from psychologists Carron and Spink [2], which appears in Figure 1, suggests several factors that contribute to teams’ overall feelings of togetherness.

Figure 1. Model of Cohesion adapted from Carron and Spink (1993)

Source: Benjamin D. Rosenberg

So, for instance, the most cohesive teams should feel distinct from the competition (“We are unique because of our winning history”), have clearly defined norms (“We always play hard on defense”) and roles (“Steph is the leader; I score when necessary and play hard defense”), communicate well (e.g., sharing grievances rather than letting them fester), and sacrifice for each other (e.g., giving up playing time so the team can win).

The importance of norms and roles in team cohesion

Each of these features is necessary to maximize team cohesion, but they can also operate like levers—augmenting one should ripple out and influence the others. In the case of Andrew Wiggins, having clear group norms and a clearly defined role seems to have unlocked his potential.

The Warriors’ well-established culture of greatness is founded on defense. As Coach Steve Kerr noted, “the key to our game is defense”; that’s a stark contrast to the popular conception that the Warriors are all about making pretty passes and long three-pointers. Each of the Warriors’ four recent titles, though, has found them with a top-five defense in the NBA.

Stepping into this clear norm of behavior (“Play defense or get out”), with such deep buy-in from the team’s leaders, put Wiggins in a position to lean into his defensive potential. And boy did he deliver, managing to body up several of the NBA’s top offensive threats in the playoffs, especially Dallas’ Luka Doncic and Boston’s Jayson Tatum.

Another foundational piece of the Warriors’ success has been their ability to offer players clear roles and expectations about how they fit into the team. Various veteran players have contributed in new ways after joining the Warriors—at least in part because they could focus on filling a very specific role. Another first overall pick, Andrew Bogut, revitalized his career and helped catapult the Warriors to the first title of this dynasty when he joined them and fulfilled a needed void as an enforcer, rim protector, and distributor.

Wiggins’ performance this season, capped by his stellar postseason, is the latest example of this trend. Rather than being The Guy, as he was expected to be in Minnesota, on a healthy Golden State roster Wiggins was arguably the fourth-best player. Being out of the spotlight allowed Wiggins to bond with his teammates and, more importantly, be exactly what the Warriors needed: an incredible defender and athlete, as well as a reliable second, third, or fourth shotmaker.

Andrew Wiggins, reborn

The Andrew Wiggins story is nowhere near over; he is only 26, after all. Wiggins showed this year that although it is easy to judge players on their first few years in the NBA, the narrative can change in a heartbeat—especially when a new team offers clear norms and roles for which they can strive.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/head-games/202206/golden-state-wins-cohesion-defined-roles-and-andrew-wiggins

Topley’s Top 10 – June 22, 2022

1. S&P on Track for Worst First Half Since 1932…What Happens Next?

Jim Reid Deutsche Bank-I’ve just released my latest chartbook (“2022 – One of the worst years on record… so far..”), which shows how 2022 is shaping up to be one of the worst years on record for financial markets. In fact, as today’s CoTD demonstrates, the S&P 500 is currently on track for its worst H1 performance since 1932 at the depths of the Great Depression, having shed -22.3% so far this year in total return terms. That just edges out 1962, when the index lost -22.2% over the first six months of the year. (more below)

But for those with a traditional 60/40 type portfolio, the news doesn’t get any better, since 10yr Treasuries are currently on track for their worst H1 since 1788.

If you’re looking for the positives, the 5 worst H1 performances for the S&P 500 before this year, all saw very good H2 performance. Indeed, on 4 of those 5 occasions, the index went on to gain at least +17%, with the other seeing a +10% gain. In order of H1 declines, we saw 1) 1932: H1 -45%, H2 +56%, 2) 1962: H1 -22%, H2 +17%, 3) 1970: H1 -19%, H2 +29%, 4) 1940: H1 -17%, H2 +10%, 5) 1939: H1 -15%, H2 +18%.

H2 is probably quite binary. If we don’t see a recession materialise over that period it might be tough for markets to continue to be as bearish as they have been, and a bounce back resembling history might be possible. However, it’s hard to see markets recovering if we see firm evidence of the recession.

 


2. Covid Bull was Shortest Since WWII

https://iplresearch.com/2022/06/15/7-things-to-know-now-that-the-bear-is-here/


3. Last Week’s Sell Got to Leadership–Energy

Marketwatch–Barbara Kollmeyer

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/energy-and-these-2-other-sectors-led-the-s-p-500-now-theyve-tanked-heres-why-that-could-be-good-for-the-stock-market-11655734549?mod=home-page


4. Will Gas Tax Holiday Move the Needle? 18.5 cents per gallon

https://www.cleveland19.com/2022/05/11/breaking-down-actual-cost-gallon-gas/

As Biden weighs a federal gas tax holiday, here’s what that could mean for prices at the pump–Lorie Konish@LORIEKONISH

KEY POINTS

  • A gallon of gas now costs an average of $4.97, according to AAA. In some states, average prices are much higher.
  • Part of the costs drivers pay include an 18.4 cents per gallon federal tax.
  • Washington lawmakers, including President Joe Biden, are considering a gas tax holiday to provide relief from those levies. But the proposal is not without controversy.

For months, drivers across the U.S. face have faced eye-popping prices when they fill up their gas tanks.

Now, President Joe Biden is weighing a new remedy — a federal gas tax holiday.

A gallon of gas now costs an average of $4.97, according to AAA. That’s a slight improvement from earlier this month, when the national average crossed the $5 threshold for the first time. But prices are up from $4.59 a month ago and $3.07 a year ago.

However, in some states — like Washington, Oregon and Nevada — average gas prices are more than $5.50 per gallon. In California, the average is currently $6.38 per gallon.

The federal gas tax amounts to 18.4 cents per gallon, while states separately impose their own levies.

In February, Democratic Sens. Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire and Mark Kelly of Arizona proposed a bill that would suspend the federal gas tax through the end of the year.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/21/what-a-federal-gas-tax-holiday-could-mean-for-prices-at-the-pump.html


5. 2022-70% Drop in IPOs and Secondary Offerings Globally

Dave Lutz at Jones Trading Just $198 billion worth of initial public offerings and follow-on sales have been priced so far this year, a 70% drop from a year ago. That puts them on track for the lowest first-half haul since 2005


6. U.S. Two Year Treasury Yield

Same as 30 year yield I showed last week….50day just going thru 200day to the upside.

www.stockcharts.com


7. China’s Electric Car Exports More Than Double, Mostly to Europe

(Bloomberg) — China’s shipments of cars rebounded in May, with electric vehicle exports more than doubling, as Covid lockdowns gradually ended.

Car manufacturers in China shipped $1.2 billion worth of electric passenger vehicles, up 122% from a year earlier and almost triple the level in April, when car factories in Changchun and Shanghai such as those run by Telsa Inc were shuttered or barely open. Passenger cars worth $2.8 billion were exported, the fourth-highest monthly total in the past few years.

China’s Electric Car Exports More Than Double, Mostly to Europe (yahoo.com)


8. Chicago Public Schools….Budget +55% vs. Enrollment -22%

Stuart Loren

https://twitter.com/StuLoren


9. 2021 $881m in Dog Bite Insurance Claims. What?

Spotlight on: Dog bite liability | III


10. Ben Bernanke NY TIMES-Inflation Isn’t Going to Bring Back the 1970s

By Ben S. Bernanke

Mr. Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve from 2006 to 2016, is the author of “21st Century Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve From the Great Inflation to Covid-19.”

Sign up for the Peter Coy newsletter, for Times subscribers only.  A veteran business and economics columnist unpacks the biggest headlines. Get it in your inbox.

We had another bad inflation report last week.

Inflation over the past 12 months exceeded 8 percent, a level that evokes memories of America’s Great Inflation of the 1960s and ’70s. From the beginning of 1966 through 1981, the Consumer Price Index rose, on average, by more than 7 percent per year, peaking at over 13 percent in 1980. This period also saw two major and two minor recessions and an approximately two-thirds decline in the Dow Jones industrial average, when adjusted for inflation.

Are we in danger of repeating that experience?

The short answer: almost certainly not.

Although the inflation of the 1960s and ’70s had higher peaks and lasted much longer than what we have seen recently, it’s true there are some similarities to what we are going through now. The inflation of a half-century ago, like today’s, began after a long period when inflation was generally low. In both cases, heavy federal spending (on the war in Vietnam and Great Society programs in the 1960s, on the response to Covid in 2020 and 2021) added to demand. And shocks to global energy and food prices in the 1970s made the inflation problem significantly worse, just as they are doing now.

But there are critical differences as well. First, although inflation was very unpopular in the ’60s and ’70s, as it (understandably) is today, back then, any inclination by the Federal Reserve to fight inflation by raising interest rates, which could also slow the economy and raise unemployment, met stiff political resistance. President Lyndon Johnson, attempting to insulate the public from the economic costs of an unpopular war, put intense pressure on the Fed chairman, William McChesney Martin, to keep interest rates low. Johnson promised to raise taxes to pay for the war, and Martin accordingly refrained from raising rates for a time, but Johnson’s temporary tax surcharge in 1968 failed to cool an overheated economy, allowing inflation to gain a toehold.

 

Richard Nixon, angling for re-election in 1972, made it clear to Martin’s successor at the Fed, Arthur Burns, that he would not tolerate an economic slowdown before the election, and Burns took no significant action against inflation. Even after Nixon resigned in 1974, Congress continued to pressure Burns and the Fed to avoid anti-inflation policies that might slow the economy. For example, a 1978 law set a target for the unemployment rate of 3 percent for people 20 and older — well below its sustainable, noninflationary level at the time.

In contrast, efforts by the current Fed chairman, Jerome Powell, and his colleagues to bring down inflation enjoy considerable support from both the White House and Congress, at least so far. As a result, the Fed today has the independence it needs to make policy decisions based solely on the economic data and in the longer-run interests of the economy, not on short-term political considerations.

Besides the Fed’s greater independence, a key difference from the ’60s and ’70s is that the Fed’s views on both the sources of inflation and its own responsibility to control the pace of price increases have changed markedly. Burns, who presided over most of the 1970s inflation, had a cost-push theory of inflation. He believed that inflation was caused primarily by large companies and trade unions, which used their market power to push up prices and wages even in a slow economy. He thought the Fed had little ability to counteract these forces, and as an alternative to raising interest rates, he helped persuade Nixon to set wage and price controls in 1971, which proved a spectacular failure.

Inflation gained momentum over the decade, ending only with the shock treatment applied by the Fed under Paul Volcker in the early 1980s, which resulted in a deep recession.

Burns wasn’t wrong that factors beyond the Fed’s control can contribute to inflation. Supply-side forces are, indeed, important today — not only the increases in global energy and food prices already mentioned but also pandemic-related constraints, like the disruption of global supply chains. Unfortunately, the Fed can do little about these supply-side problems.

Nevertheless, today’s monetary policymakers understand that as we wait for supply constraints to ease, which they will eventually, the Fed can help reduce inflation by slowing growth in demand. Drawing on the lessons of the past, they also understand that by doing what is needed to get inflation under control, they can help the economy and the job market avoid much more serious instability in the future.

In short, the lessons learned from America’s Great Inflation, by both the Fed and political leaders, make a repeat of that experience highly unlikely. The Fed today recognizes that it must take the leading role in controlling inflation, and it has the tools and sufficient political independence to do so. After a delay caused by a misdiagnosis of the economy in 2021, the Fed has accordingly turned to tightening monetary policy, ending its pandemic-era bond purchases, announcing plans to shrink its securities holdings and raising short-term interest rates.

Markets and the public appear to understand how the Fed’s approach has changed from the earlier era I described. Although the Fed has raised interest rates only twice this year (this week’s meeting will no doubt bring an additional increase), financial conditions have already tightened significantly (for example, mortgage rates have risen by more than two percentage points in the past year) as markets anticipate that policymakers will persist in their anti-inflation campaign. And while market indicators and surveys of consumers reveal that inflation is expected to remain high over the next year or two, for the most part, they suggest continued confidence that, over the longer term, the Fed will be able to bring inflation down close to its 2 percent target.

This confidence in turn makes the Fed’s job easier, by limiting the risk of an “inflationary psychology,” as Burns once put it, on the part of the public. Since Mr. Volcker’s conquest of inflation in the 1980s, bursts of inflation have tended to die away more quickly and with less need for monetary restraint than in previous episodes.

None of this implies that the Fed’s job will be easy. The degree to which the central bank will have to tighten monetary policy to control our currently high inflation, and the associated risk of an economic slowdown or recession, depends on several factors: how quickly the supply-side problems (high oil prices, supply-chain snarls) subside, how aggregate spending reacts to the tighter financial conditions engineered by the Fed and whether the Fed retains its credibility as an inflation fighter even if inflation takes a while to subside.

Of these, history teaches us, the last may be the most important. Inflation will not become self-perpetuating, with price increases leading to wage increases leading to price increases, if people are confident that the Fed will take the necessary measures to bring inflation down over time.

The Fed’s greater policy independence, its willingness to take responsibility for inflation and its record of keeping inflation low for nearly four decades after the Great Inflation, make it much more credible on inflation today than its counterpart in the ’60s and ’70s. The Fed’s credibility will help ensure that the Great Inflation will not be repeated, and Mr. Powell and his colleagues will put a high priority on keeping that credibility intact.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/14/opinion/inflation-stagflation-economy.html

Topley’s Top 10 – June 21, 2022

1. Leading Indicators Trucking and Housing.

Homebuilders -33% from High…Clean close below 200 week moving average

www.stockcharts.com


2. Another 200 Day at Risk…Vanguard Total World Stock Index Right on 200 Week Moving Average.


3. Cash was at Record Levels Before Last Week’s Sell Off

https://biztoc.com/p/qmbsuxi8


4. When Do Stocks Bottom?

by Michael Batnick

Ben Carlson looked at the historical records and found some interesting results. Some bear markets were over as soon as they began, like 1948 and 1957. Others took a while, like 73-74 and the dotcom bust. The past isn’t much help with figuring out the future, but I did find this data point to be interesting: Seven out of the last twelve bear markets have bottomed in 46 days or less once the -20% level was breached.

When Do Stocks Bottom? – The Irrelevant Investor


5. Small Cap Energy -25% Correction

PSCE small cap energy ETF

www.stockcharts.com


6. Wealth Destruction Even Bigger than Many Past Bubbles….Due to Stocks, Crypto, and Bonds Going Down Together.

The Daily Shot The United States: Wealth destruction has been massive in this cycle, which is likely to create a drag on consumption.

Source: BCA Research

https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-june-20th-2022/


7. $800 Increase in Average Mortgage Payment

Redfin

Housing Market Update: Share of Homes with Price Drops Reaches New High (redfin.com)


8. Gun Background Checks…2000 8.5m…2021 38.5m

Gun Background checks 8.5m 2000 to 38.9m 2022  https://gununiversity.com/gun-sales-stats/


9. The United States is installing less solar today than at peak of coronavirus pandemic

By Kelly Pickerel | June 7, 2022

The U.S. solar industry had its lowest quarter of installations since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, according to the “U.S. Solar Market Insight” report released today by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk business. In Q1 2022, price increases and supply chain constraints continued to suppress the solar market as the industry installed 24% less solar capacity than Q1 2021.

The White House’s executive action this week to provide a two-year suspension of any new solar tariffs gives businesses certainty to accelerate projects delayed by the Department of Commerce’s anti-circumvention investigation. Without this action, massive project delays and cancelations would have continued throughout 2022, putting President Biden’s climate goals at risk.

Since the case was initiated in March, most solar module manufacturers have halted shipments to the United States, causing an industry-wide module shortage. These supply constraints are expected to ease as manufacturers ramp up shipments to the U.S. in the coming months.

“The solar industry is facing multiple challenges that are slowing America’s clean energy progress, but this week’s action from the Biden administration provides a jolt of certainty businesses need to keep projects moving and create jobs,” said SEIA president and CEO Abigail Ross Hopper. “President Biden has clearly taken notice of how drags on the industry are hampering grid resiliency. By acting decisively, this administration is breathing new life into the clean energy sector, while positioning the U.S. to be a global solar manufacturing leader.”

Over the last nine months, 2022 forecasts have been cut in half due to continued supply chain challenges and the anti-circumvention inquiry.

“The White House’s executive action brings relief to the U.S. solar industry, which has been steeped in uncertainty regarding the anti-circumvention investigation initiated by the Department of Commerce in late March following a petition filed by Auxin Solar, a domestic module manufacturer,” said Michelle Davis, Wood Mackenzie’s principal analyst. “Despite this, this announcement is expected to create approximately 2 to 3 GW of upside potential to Wood Mackenzie’s 2022 base case outlook, assuming the global market resumes normal operations.”

The down numbers are due to the utility-scale market seeing its lowest quarter since Q3 2019 with 2,173 MWdc installed, a 41% decrease from Q1 2021 and a 64% decrease from Q4 2021. The utility-scale market is seeing the lowest number of new projects added to the pipeline since 2017.

The commercial market is also down: installing just 317 MWdc, down 11% year-over-year and down 28% quarter-over-quarter. Community solar installed 197 MWdc, up 16% year-over-year but down 59% quarter-over-quarter.

Residential solar, in comparison, had its largest quarter in history with 1,200 MWdc installed, a 30% increase over Q1 2021 and a 5% increase over Q4 2021, demonstrating the robust strength of the residential segment — a market less suspectable to price fluctuations.

With trade certainty in place, the solar market is eying the fate of clean energy policies in a federal reconciliation bill. Long-term tax credits, manufacturing incentives, and other provisions will significantly boost solar and storage deployment and help keep pace with President Biden’s clean energy goals.

News item from SEIA

https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2022/06/the-united-states-is-installing-less-solar-today-than-at-peak-of-coronavirus-pandemic/


10. 5 Tips to Handle Conflict When You’re Working with Your Polar Opposite

Success.com By Jennifer B. Kahnweiler 

Extroverts and introverts are profoundly different. Extroverts become charged by being around other people while introverts find socialization draining and regain their energy with alone time. These differences can drive some pairs crazy, but for those that are able to work together, their combined strengths can achieve incredible results—ones they could never get to on their own.

Successful opposites acknowledge their differences, using them to challenge each other. They accept that decisions come with conflict and that conflict is normal, natural and necessary—they know that disagreements open up the path to a successful outcome. These opposites understand that avoiding conflict, on the other hand, creates tension and prevents them from achieving innovative and creative solutions.

Biologist Francis Crick said it well: “The death knell to real collaboration is politeness.”

When working together, introvert and extrovert opposites can do extraordinary things by pulling out the best thinking from each other, like blending two brains into one. But they have to be willing to “bring on the battles” for the world to benefit from the results of their genius.

Jennifer B. Kahnweiler, author of The Genius of Opposites, shares these six strategies to work through conflict and manage disagreements with your opposite:

1. Remember energy differences.

Accept that your partner’s introverted energy may wane from too much people time or your extroverted colleague might get too hyped-up during conflict. During conflict and stress we exaggerate our strengths; for example, we might talk loudly and more often as an extrovert or retreat into ourselves as an introvert. Resist the tendency to amplify your natural traits. Sometimes a time-out is the best workaround to help you regroup and reconvene, ready to engage with a clear head. Factor in breaks or a few moments of quiet to keep moving toward a resolution.

2. Tell ‘em what you need.

You can set the foundation for clear communication when you “bring on the battles.” Let your partner know specifically what you want and what you need to avoid emotional flare-ups. If you need to find a private space to work, then tell them. If you need to spill out your thoughts, say so. Mind reading doesn’t work here.

3. Manage crises together.

When an inevitable crisis occurs, put your heads together and figure out a way through. That often means drawing on the partner in the pair who is better suited to meet the problem at hand. Figuring out the logical solution may be your strong suit, while your opposite’s strength might be going to the source and diffusing the situation.

4. Bring in a third party.

Sometimes when you reach an impasse, no amount of discussion will work. The best action you can take is to bring in a neutral party, an objective outsider, to break through the tension, help you get unstuck and find a win-win way forward.

5. Walk and talk.

Consider moving your conversation outside the doors of your office. Talking out their ideas may help extroverts, while walking around might help them gain clarity about their positions. Introverts are likely to respond to the relaxed pace. They are also likely to conserve energy by not having to concentrate on making eye contact and other in-your-face listening behaviors. When you let the juices flow by getting up and moving, new ideas spring up and you will see solutions together.

The more high-stakes the situation, the more important it is for opposites to “bring on the battles” as an outcome-focused team.

This article was published in November 2015 and has been updated. Photo by fizkes/Shutterstock

Jennifer B. Kahnweiler

https://www.success.com/5-tips-to-handle-conflict-when-youre-working-with-your-polar-opposite/

Topley’s Top 10 – June 15, 2022

1. The Big Question….Bear Market without Recession or Bear Market with Recession?  Here are the historical stats.

Ryan Detrick LPL Blog 

https://twitter.com/RyanDetrick/status/1536343523640807427/photo/1


2. Pure Value Vs. Pure Growth…10 year returns…Beginning of 2022 Growth 200% Over Value for Decade

Reversion to Mean 50% Spread Last and Closing

www.yahoofinance.com


3. Small Cap Closes Below 200 Week Moving Average.

IWM Russell 2000 new low for 2022…hard close below 200 week…-30% from highs

www.stockcharts.com


4. 5 Year Chart…S&P +54% vs. IWM (small cap) +21%…2000-2022 Small Cap 100% Over S&P

www.yahoofinance.com


5. SPLV Low Volatility Fund….Outperforming S&P YTD by 10%

www.yahoofinance.com


6. Monday was Third Day Ever that 10 Year Treasury Yields Rose More than 20 Basis Points in One Day

Jim Reid Deutsche Bank-What a 48 business hours we’ve seen since Friday’s US CPI. Indeed yesterday was only the third day since daily Treasury data starts in 1962 that 10yr yields rose more than +20bps and the S&P 500 fell more than -3.5%. The other two times occurred in 1982 and 1986. That’s what happens when you see a regime change after decades under the old one.

If you’re looking for encouragement, at least the market is finally waking up to the extent of Fed hikes likely needed to tame inflation. Back in January, when we first used today’s CoTD, futures were only pricing in around 130bps worth of hikes over the first year of the hiking cycle. Even by the Fed’s meeting in March when they had begun to hike, futures were only pricing in 200bps. But, given inflation was already running at 7.0% last December and above 8% at the first hike, that would have been an unusually slow pace by historical standards, with the trend line of previous hiking cycles instead pointing to well over 300bps worth of hikes.

However, over the last 3 months markets have caught up to that trend line as inflation has proved stickier than the consensus was expecting. Futures now expect more than 300bps worth of further hikes by the February 2023 meeting (on top of the 75bps we’ve already had in March and May), meaning this is set to be the most aggressive pace of hikes in decades.

The terminal rate priced into the market is now at around 4%. This is starting to approach the 5% plus level we suggested was likely needed in our “Why the next recession will be worse than expected” (link here) note back in April.

The risk to our view is that something falls off the wheel as the Fed hikes aggressively over the coming months and they decide to pause or slow down the pace of hikes. This is clearly a risk but it’s not obvious that such a strategy would be enough to tame inflation.


7. Utilities -15% Off Highs…Pulls Back to Just Above 2022 Lows.

Yield on Utes ETFS below 3% vs. 10 year Treasury 3.5% Last

BITO -65% from highs

www.stockcharts.com


8. Floating Rate Bonds Beating AGG by 10% 2022

FLOT -1.3% vs. AGG -12.7%

www.yahoofinance.com


9. 30 Year Treasury Yield Chart…50day thru 200day to Upside.

A couple weeks ago I showed this chart ….Surprised 50day was still below 200day….Upside breakout this week…Short-term overbought RSI long term bullish yield.

www.stockcharts.com


10. Wisdom is an Endless Pursuit-The Daily Stoic

It’s sort of strange—if you think back to when you were a kid, what appeared to you to be the best part about being an adult? No more school. Because that’s the example adults by and large set: that education stops. That adulthood is like one long summer break. That graduation is the final destination of learning and studying and investing in your education.

This is a relatively recent phenomenon. Not that long ago, adults prioritized their own education as much as their kids. There’s the story of Epictetus teaching one day when a student’s arrival caused a commotion in the back of the room. Who was it? Hadrian, the emperor. Hadrian’s example clearly had an impact on his successor and adopted grandson, Marcus Aurelius. Late in his reign, a friend spotted Marcus heading out, carrying a stack of books. Where are you going? he asked. Marcus was on his way to a lecture on Stoicism, he said, for “learning is a good thing, even for one who is growing old. I am now on my way to Sextus the philosopher to learn what I do not yet know.” In adulthood, Cato had the Stoic philosopher Athenodorus Cordylion come live with him so he could continue his studies. Thrasea, one of the Stoics who challenged Nero, continued his studies up until his last breath. In fact, he was discoursing and studying with Demetrius the Cynic when his death sentence from Nero arrived.

This is what it means to be a Stoic. To be a Stoic is to be a lifelong student. It’s to follow in the footsteps of Hadrian and Marcus and Cato and Thrasea. It’s to know that wisdom is an endless pursuit, to believe one never graduates, one never arrives at some final destination of education.

https://dailystoic.com

Topley’s Top 10 – June 14, 2022

1. Since Covid Lows, Gas Prices Have Tripled….Since Jan 2021 +122%

Bespoke Investment Group-Every week, we show numerous charts to illustrate key trends in the market and economy in order to try and make sense of whatever is going on in the market. These days, though, only one chart matters—prices at the pump. Heading into this weekend, the national average price of a gallon of gas approached $5, a level it will almost certainly breach over the weekend. Not only are prices at a record high, but the pace of increase has been unprecedented. Since the COVID lows, the national average price has nearly tripled. Since the start of 2021, prices are up 122%, and this year prices are up 52% in less than six months. For just about every issue facing the market these days, gas prices are in some way related to it.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/the-bespoke-report-6-10-22-cp-oh-my


2. Nasdaq Comp…200 Week Moving Average Major Support

www.stockcharts.com


3. Two Charts from Cullen Roche on the How Fast the Fed Changed Markets…Home Purchase Applications

@cullenroche


4. High Yield Bond Issuance Implodes.

Cullen Roche Funds

https://disciplinefunds.com/


5. Another Look at the End of Retail Investors Playing the Options Market…The Fed Popped Speculative Bubble in Options

 -70% Reduction in Call Options….I would guess 99% of retail investors lost money trading in options


6. China Total Bank Assets Double the U.S.

From Zerohedge

https://twitter.com/zerohedge


7. Crypto Winter for Retail ETFs

BITO -60% from highs

ETHE -78%

www.stockcharts.com


8. This Chart is Comparing XLE Energy ETF to SPDR Clean Energy ETF

www.stockcharts.com


9. Global Retail Stocks Down More than Technology Sector

If You Thought the Tech Rout Was Bad, Spare a Dime for Retailers

(Bloomberg) — For all that the slump in technology stocks has headlined a treacherous year for global equity markets, there’s one sector that’s faring even worse.

The MSCI World Retailing Index, which includes the likes of Target Corp., Zalando SE and Amazon.com Inc., is on track for its first negative year since 2008. The gauge was down about 29% in 2022 through Thursday, surpassing even the 24% decline of the MSCI World Information Technology Index.

The same inflation worries that have sent shivers through tech stocks are also taking a toll on retailers, leading to a squeeze on disposable incomes and pushing up costs of everything from transportation to labor. Warnings from behemoths like Walmart Inc. and Target have shaken investors, and many analysts say they may not be the last.

Thyagaraju Adinarayan, Lisa Pham and Janet Freund

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/thought-tech-rout-bad-spare-083000679.html


10. How Anxiety Gets Out of Control

David H. Rosmarin Ph.D., 
In a culture obsessed with control, feeling peace all the time is not realistic.
KEY POINTS
  • Our culture is obsessed with control and security and expects to feel peace and happiness all the time, which is not realistic.
  • When we perceive our initial physical sensations of anxiety as a reason for concern, our apprehension triggers adrenaline to release.
  • Our need to get rid of anxiety increases our symptoms.
  • Accepting that anxiety is normal and not inherently dangerous could stop it from spiraling out of control.

Jim is stuck in a cycle. He’s an athletic man in his 40s who works as an EMT, and he is prone to panic attacks. When panic strikes, Jim’s heart palpitates, his throat closes up, and he thinks, Oh no, I’m having a heart attack! or Oh no, I’m going to end up with super-high levels of anxiety and I’m not going to be able to tolerate it!

When Amelia describes her onrush of anxiety, she says it feels like a hurricane that gradually mounts in intensity. It starts with the stormy winds of anxious feelings, and these are quickly followed by a torrent of guilt and shame. “I judge myself for feeling anxious,” she says to me. “I get concerned that I have a disease, that I’m not strong enough and I won’t be able to handle life.”

In both of these cases—and countless others—there are actually two types of anxiety happening.

The First Type of Anxiety

The first is the initial experience of anxiety, such as Jim’s heart palpitations and Amelia’s anxious feelings. These are uncomfortable, but completely innocuous. That’s right—there is nothing problematic, dangerous, or harmful in any way with having some anxious thoughts, feelings, or sensations. In fact, the physical sensations associated with this form of anxiety are meant to be unpleasant, in order to keep us alert and aware.

The Second Type of Anxiety

The second type of anxiety involves how people respond to the first. In Jim’s case, he catastrophizes and thinks the worst. As for Amelia, she gets caught in a pattern of judgment and self-criticism. It’s this second form of anxiety that gets people into trouble.

When we perceive our initial (unpleasant but harmless) physical sensations of anxiety as a reason for concern, our apprehension triggers adrenaline to release into the bloodstream. This causes our anxiety to cascade further, which typically begets more catastrophizing and self-criticism. A vicious cycle results, and, voila—anxiety gets out of control.

The critical factor that begets and perpetuates this cycle is seeing anxiety as something we shouldn’t have. Our need to get rid of anxiety increases our symptoms. For some, it’s more like an avalanche than a hurricane, as the initial shock of recognition shakes loose layers of mental and emotional debris until the person fears being suffocated.

article continues after advertisement

The above raises a question: If the initial experience of anxiety isn’t inherently dangerous, but merely uncomfortable, why does it make us so afraid?

The Desire for Control and Security

The most compelling explanation I’ve found for this paradox is that our culture is obsessed with control. Today, we have predictions for everything, from financial markets, political elections, and flu epidemics to professional sports outcomes and the weather. And despite the fact that such predictions are notoriously incorrect—often by a wide margin—we scrutinize them as the soothsayers of ancient Rome once examined the entrails of sacrificial animals.

Along these lines, we medicalize normal mood states. What was once considered standard levels of stress in decades past is a reason for a Xanax prescription today. We expect our emotions to be totally even-keeled—we want to feel equanimity and peace and happiness all the time. As a result, we cannot handle the discomfort or perceived danger of feeling anxious and unmoored. Our inability to accept a full range of normal human emotion (including the first type of anxiety) leads our distress to intensify (the second type of anxiety).

We do all of this because our culture cannot tolerate uncertainty. We would prefer to predict the future and be completely wrong than to admit we have no clue what’s going to happen!

We are also obsessed with security. In the context of our society’s unparalleled and unprecedented affluence, we have become accustomed to a false sense of safety. When moments of threat penetrate the veil, we are thrust into panic.

Ironically, individuals who live in the third world are at an advantage when it comes to anxiety because they are less likely to expect safety or security. As such, when reality hits, it is simply understood and accepted as a part of life. Perhaps it’s for this reason that anxiety is higher in the United States than in all other nations on earth,1 and wealthier nations are substantially worse off than those with fewer resources.2

How do we stop our anxiety from getting out of control? We need to internalize that the initial experience of anxiety itself is not a problem. Nothing is wrong with you for being tense, anxious, or afraid. Anxiety is nothing to fear! In fact, the initial experience of anxiety is actually positive, since it keeps us alert, aware, and safe. Once we realize this basic concept, we never need to catastrophize about anxious feelings or judge ourselves for feeling anxious, and our anxiety is less likely to get out of control.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/thriving-anxiety/202206/how-anxiety-gets-out-control?collection=1176488

Topley’s Top 10 – June 13, 2022

1. More 1% Days Including 5 in June Already….Highest 1% Days in SPX Since Covid and GFC

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright Last month, we touched on how our SPX volatility study had seen about half the trading days throughout 2022 show an extreme move. Even though the S&P 500 was about flat over the month of May, we saw another 10 trading days show a gain or loss of at least 1%, which is about double the historical average for that month. We have already seen 5 such days in the month of June (through 6/9). This continues the theme from April, as we have seen 51% of the trading days so far this year show an extreme move. That brings us up to 57 trading days with the sharp declines seen on Friday, which is the third-highest count in the first half of any year since 1987. The only two years to show a higher count were 2020 with 68 and 2009 with 74. The second half of both those years saw a fewer number of extreme days, however, the 2H count was still above the average of 33 days per half in each case.

https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright


2. History of Recession Returns Starting 6 Months Prior

Ben Carlson–Here is a look at every recession since WWII along with S&P 500 returns in the 6 months leading up to the recession, during the actual recession itself and then one, three, five years and ten years from the end of the recession:

Timing a Recession vs. Timing the Stock Market

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/06/timing-a-recession-vs-timing-the-stock-market/


3. These 19 large-cap stocks have now dropped at least 60% from their 52-week highs

Marketwatch–By Philip van Doorn

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-19-big-tech-stocks-have-now-dropped-at-least-60-from-their-52-week-highs-11654878980?mod=home-page


4. Crude Oil Hits Highs….Energy Volatility Rolling Over Going Lower

Oil Volatility Index rolling over toward 2022 lows

www.stockcharts.com


5. The Last 8x S&P was Down in Calendar Year Bonds were Up.

@Charlie BilelloThe last 8 times the S&P 500 was down in a calendar year, Bonds finished the year up, cushioning the blow. Very different story thus far in 2022 with Stocks and Bonds both down over 10%, something we’ve never seen. 60/40 is down 14.8%, on pace for its worst year since 2008.


6. I was Surprised by this Chart….Stock Splits Data

From Gary Black

https://twitter.com/garyblack00


7. Durable Goods Prices Decelerate- LPL Research

https://Iplresearch.com/2022/06/10/headline-surprises-to-the-upside-but-some-good-news-in-the-details/


8. Retail Inventories Soaring

But, sales to the US will likely slow amid ample inventories and slowing demand.

Source: BCA Research

 https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-june-9th-2022/


9. Where Salaries are Soaring

https://www.bizjournals.com/kansascity/news/2022/05/11/metros-with-the-most-pay-inflation.html


10. Oliver Burkeman’s last column: the eight secrets to a (fairly) fulfilled life

After more than a decade of writing life-changing advice, I know when to move on. Here’s what else I learned

Oliver Burkeman

@oliverburkeman

Found at Barry Ritholtz Big Picture blog https://ritholtz.com/

In the very first instalment of my column for the Guardian’s Weekend magazine, a dizzying number of years ago now, I wrote that it would continue until I had discovered the secret of human happiness, whereupon it would cease. Typically for me, back then, this was a case of facetiousness disguising earnestness. Obviously, I never expected to find the secret, but on some level I must have known there were questions I needed to confront – about anxiety, commitment-phobia in relationships, control-freakery and building a meaningful life. Writing a column provided the perfect cover for such otherwise embarrassing fare.

I hoped I’d help others too, of course, but I was totally unprepared for how companionable the journey would feel: while I’ve occasionally received requests for help with people’s personal problems, my inbox has mainly been filled with ideas, life stories, quotations and book recommendations from readers often far wiser than me. (Some of you would have been within your rights to charge a standard therapist’s fee.) For all that: thank you.

I am drawing a line today not because I have uncovered all the answers, but because I have a powerful hunch that the moment is right to do so. If nothing else, I hope I’ve acquired sufficient self-knowledge to know when it’s time to move on. So what did I learn? What follows isn’t intended as an exhaustive summary. But these are the principles that surfaced again and again, and that now seem to me most useful for navigating times as baffling and stress-inducing as ours.

There will always be too much to do – and this realisation is liberating. Today more than ever, there’s just no reason to assume any fit between the demands on your time – all the things you would like to do, or feel you ought to do – and the amount of time available. Thanks to capitalism, technology and human ambition, these demands keep increasing, while your capacities remain largely fixed. It follows that the attempt to “get on top of everything” is doomed. (Indeed, it’s worse than that – the more tasks you get done, the more you’ll generate.)

The upside is that you needn’t berate yourself for failing to do it all, since doing it all is structurally impossible. The only viable solution is to make a shift: from a life spent trying not to neglect anything, to one spent proactively and consciously choosing what to neglect, in favour of what matters most.
When stumped by a life choice, choose “enlargement” over happiness. I’m indebted to the Jungian therapist James Hollis for the insight that major personal decisions should be made not by asking, “Will this make me happy?”, but “Will this choice enlarge me or diminish me?” We’re terrible at predicting what will make us happy: the question swiftly gets bogged down in our narrow preferences for security and control. But the enlargement question elicits a deeper, intuitive response. You tend to just know whether, say, leaving or remaining in a relationship or a job, though it might bring short-term comfort, would mean cheating yourself of growth. (Relatedly, don’t worry about burning bridges: irreversible decisions tend to be more satisfying, because now there’s only one direction to travel – forward into whatever choice you made.)
The capacity to tolerate minor discomfort is a superpower. It’s shocking to realise how readily we set aside even our greatest ambitions in life, merely to avoid easily tolerable levels of unpleasantness. You already know it won’t kill you to endure the mild agitation of getting back to work on an important creative project; initiating a difficult conversation with a colleague; asking someone out; or checking your bank balance – but you can waste years in avoidance nonetheless. (This is how social media platforms flourish: by providing an instantly available, compelling place to go at the first hint of unease.)

It’s possible, instead, to make a game of gradually increasing your capacity for discomfort, like weight training at the gym. When you expect that an action will be accompanied by feelings of irritability, anxiety or boredom, it’s usually possible to let that feeling arise and fade, while doing the action anyway. The rewards come so quickly, in terms of what you’ll accomplish, that it soon becomes the more appealing way to live.
The advice you don’t want to hear is usually the advice you need. I spent a long time fixated on becoming hyper-productive before I finally started wondering why I was staking so much of my self-worth on my productivity levels. What I needed wasn’t another exciting productivity book, since those just functioned as enablers, but to ask more uncomfortable questions instead.

The broader point here is that it isn’t fun to confront whatever emotional experiences you’re avoiding – if it were, you wouldn’t avoid them – so the advice that could really help is likely to make you uncomfortable. (You may need to introspect with care here, since bad advice from manipulative friends or partners is also likely to make you uncomfortable.)

It’s wrong to say we live in especially uncertain times. The future is always uncertain

One good question to ask is what kind of practices strike you as intolerably cheesy or self-indulgent: gratitude journals, mindfulness meditation, seeing a therapist? That might mean they are worth pursuing. (I can say from personal experience that all three are worth it.) Oh, and be especially wary of celebrities offering advice in public forums: they probably pursued fame in an effort to fill an inner void, which tends not to work – so they are likely to be more troubled than you are.
The future will never provide the reassurance you seek from it. As the ancient Greek and Roman Stoics understood, much of our suffering arises from attempting to control what is not in our control. And the main thing we try but fail to control – the seasoned worriers among us, anyway – is the future. We want to know, from our vantage point in the present, that things will be OK later on. But we never can. (This is why it’s wrong to say we live in especially uncertain times. The future is always uncertain; it’s just that we’re currently very aware of it.)

It’s freeing to grasp that no amount of fretting will ever alter this truth. It’s still useful to make plans. But do that with the awareness that a plan is only ever a present-moment statement of intent, not a lasso thrown around the future to bring it under control. The spiritual teacher Jiddu Krishnamurti said his secret was simple: “I don’t mind what happens.” That needn’t mean not trying to make life better, for yourself or others. It just means not living each day anxiously braced to see if things work out as you hoped.

The solution to imposter syndrome is to see that you are one. When I first wrote about how useful it is to remember that everyone is totally just winging it, all the time, we hadn’t yet entered the current era of leaderly incompetence (Brexit, Trump, coronavirus). Now, it’s harder to ignore. But the lesson to be drawn isn’t that we’re doomed to chaos. It’s that you – unconfident, self-conscious, all-too-aware-of-your-flaws – potentially have as much to contribute to your field, or the world, as anyone else.

Remember: the reason you can’t hear other people’s inner monologues of self-doubt isn’t that they don’t have them

Humanity is divided into two: on the one hand, those who are improvising their way through life, patching solutions together and putting out fires as they go, but deluding themselves otherwise; and on the other, those doing exactly the same, except that they know it. It’s infinitely better to be the latter (although too much “assertiveness training” consists of techniques for turning yourself into the former).

Remember: the reason you can’t hear other people’s inner monologues of self-doubt isn’t that they don’t have them. It’s that you only have access to your own mind.

Selflessness is overrated. We respectable types, although women especially, are raised to think a life well spent means helping others – and plenty of self-help gurus stand ready to affirm that kindness, generosity and volunteering are the route to happiness. There’s truth here, but it generally gets tangled up with deep-seated issues of guilt and self-esteem. (Meanwhile, of course, the people who boast all day on Twitter about their charity work or political awareness aren’t being selfless at all; they are burnishing their egos.)

If you’re prone to thinking you should be helping more, that’s probably a sign that you could afford to direct more energy to your idiosyncratic ambitions and enthusiasms. As the Buddhist teacher Susan Piver observes, it’s radical, at least for some of us, to ask how we’d enjoy spending an hour or day of discretionary time. And the irony is that you don’t actually serve anyone else by suppressing your true passions anyway. More often than not, by doing your thing – as opposed to what you think you ought to be doing – you kindle a fire that helps keep the rest of us warm.

Know when to move on. And then, finally, there’s the one about knowing when something that’s meant a great deal to you – like writing this column – has reached its natural endpoint, and that the most creative choice would be to turn to what’s next. This is where you find me. Thank you for reading.

Oliver Burkeman’s book Four Thousand Weeks: Time Management For Mortals will be published next year by The Bodley Head. Find out more at oliverburkeman.com

… we have a small favour to ask. Tens of millions have placed their trust in the Guardian’s fearless journalism since we started publishing 200 years ago, turning to us in moments of crisis, uncertainty, solidarity and hope. More than 1.5 million supporters, from 180 countries, now power us financially – keeping us open to all, and fiercely independent.

Unlike many others, the Guardian has no shareholders and no billionaire owner. Just the determination and passion to deliver high-impact global reporting, always free from commercial or political influence. Reporting like this is vital for democracy, for fairness and to demand better from the powerful.

And we provide all this for free, for everyone to read. We do this because we believe in information equality. Greater numbers of people can keep track of the global events shaping our world, understand their impact on people and communities, and become inspired to take meaningful action. Millions can benefit from open access to quality, truthful news, regardless of their ability to pay for it.

If there were ever a time to join us, it is now. Every contribution, however big or small, powers our journalism and sustains our future. ​​Support the Guardian from as little as $1 – it only takes a minute. Thank you.

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2020/sep/04/oliver-burkemans-last-column-the-eight-secrets-to-a-fairly-fulfilled-life

Topley’s Top 10 – June 08, 2022

1. 2022 Sector Dispersion Highest Since 2007….Energy vs. Consumer Discretionary 82% Spread

www.dorseywright.com


2. 30 Year Treasury Yield…1.2% to 3.1% One Year.

50 day about to go thru 200 day to upside on chart

www.stockcharts.com


3. Small Cap Tech -25% Correction High to Low.

I was expecting this chart to be worse when I hit it up today


4. Under Armour Another Full Round Robin Stock Back to Covid Lows


5. Target TGT -43% Correction

www.stockcharts.com


6. Weakness in Retail-Bespoke Investment Group

The broader retail space has been weak relative to the S&P 500 so far this year. Much of this weakness came after Target’s (TGT) and Walmart’s (WMT) earnings calls, in which management noted margin compression, inventory gluts in certain categories, shifting consumer preferences, and weakness in consumer spending as inflation in food and energy reduces discretionary budgets. Institutional subscribers can view our Conference Call Recaps on these two companies by clicking here. On a YTD basis, the VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) has underperformed the S&P 500 (SPY) by 4.5 percentage points, trading down by 18.2% as of today. A chart of the relative strength of RTH vs SPY over the last year is shown below.

Within the S&P 500, there are 21 stocks that make up the Retailing industry, and in the table below, we have outlined the performance of the 10 largest stocks by market cap.  You’ll notice that companies like Costco (COST) and WMT aren’t listed, but that’s because they are actually part of the Food and Staples Retailing industry.  As you can see, seven of these ten stocks are down more than the average S&P 500 member on a YTD basis, and six are further from their respective 52-week highs than the average S&P 500 member. However, only two of these stocks are below their pre-COVID highs, whereas more than a third of (35.8%) of S&P 500 components are below their pre-COVID highs.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/weakness-in-retail


7. Consumer Credit Explodes…Double Estimates

Zerohedge-Here are the shocking numbers: in April one month after the jarring March print again came in more than double the $25 billion expected to $52.435 billion, in April consumer credit again exploded to a ridiculous $38.1 billion, again blowing away expectations of a $35 billion increase (and not much lower than last month’s downward revised $47.3 billion).

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/shocking-consumer-credit-numbers-everyone-maxing-out-their-credit-card-ahead-recession-0


8. U.S. Exports Set a Record in 2021….$1.8 Trillion.

From The Daily Shot Blog  Food for Thought: Lastly, let’s take a look at US exports of goods by state.

Source: Visual Capitalist Read full article

https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-june-6th-2022/


9. Homeownership Remains the American Dream, Despite Challenges

NY TIMES A new survey reveals that nearly three-quarters of Americans place owning a home above career, family and college as a sign of prosperityBy Gregory Schmidt

Nearly three-quarters of Americans say owning a home is a higher measure of achievement than having a successful career, raising a family or earning a college degree, according to a new survey. But affordability remains a challenge for many of them.

The survey, released in March for Bankrate.com, a financial services company, found that 74 percent of respondents ranked homeownership as the highest gauge of prosperity, above having a career (60 percent), children (40 percent) and a college education (35 percent).

The survey, conducted by the market research firm YouGov, comprised 2,529 adults, 1,397 of whom were homeowners. Of those respondents who did not own homes, about two-thirds pointed to one or more affordability factors for holding them back, including income level, soaring housing prices and their ability to make a down payment.

Other factors included poor credit, not being ready for homeownership and high mortgage rates. Fourteen percent said they were not inclined to be homeowners, regardless of the circumstances.

To find more affordable housing, 58 percent of all respondents said they would be willing to make compromises, including moving to another state, buying a fixer-upper or moving to a less desirable area.

Those results skewed toward younger Americans, said Jeff Ostrowski, a senior reporter at Bankrate.com who covers the housing market and mortgages. “Boomers and Gen X have built up equity, so there was a smaller percentage of older people willing to make concessions,” he said.

But he added that there were still affordable homes to be found, particularly in cities in the Midwest and Northeast like Cincinnati, Cleveland, Detroit, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and St. Louis. “In all of those places, the median home prices are $300,000 or less,” he said.

Despite the rise of remote work, which has accelerated the migration from expensive coastal cities to more affordable inland housing markets, a majority of homeowners in the survey were satisfied with their choice: Seventy-two percent said they would buy their current home again.

For weekly email updates on residential real estate news, sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @nytrealestate.

Gregory Schmidt covers New York real estate. @GregoryNYC

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/02/realestate/homeownership-affordability-survey.html


10. The purpose is to become the kind of person that can do it

The Daily Stoic —In one of his letters, Seneca describes himself as a “cold-water enthusiast.” He would “celebrate the new year by taking a plunge into the canal, who, just as naturally as I would set out to do some reading or writing, or to compose a speech, used to inaugurate the first of the year with a plunge into the Virgo aqueduct [present day Trevi Fountain].” But then he gives the real reason for his cold plunges: “The body should be treated more rigorously that it may not be disobedient to the mind.”

There’s a lot of interesting research about the health benefits of taking cold showers and going for a run and lifting weights. But the real reason to do these things is far more simple: it’s to make a statement about who is in charge.

Who is in charge? The courageous side or the cowardly side of you? The side that doesn’t flinch at discomfort or the side that desires to always be comfortable? The side that does the hard thing or the side that takes the easy way?

We challenge ourselves not to improve our immune system. Not to increase our metabolism. Not to reduce anxiety. Those things might be nice ancillary benefits but they are not the point. The purpose is to become the kind of person that can do it. How do you expect to do the big things that scare you—that scare others—if you haven’t practiced them? Why do you think you can endure the cold reception of a bold idea if you can’t even endure cold water? How can you trust that you’ll step forward when the stakes are high when you regularly don’t do that when the stakes are low? What gives you any confidence you’ll do the hard thing when people are watching if you can’t do that even when no one is watching?

The person who does something scary every day is less fearful than someone who can’t. The person who does something difficult every day is tougher than someone who doesn’t.

https://dailystoic.com/

Topley’s Top 10 – June 06, 2022

1. Energy Stocks are Still at Record Cheapness vs. Tech

Kailash-this group does great work.

Kailash Concepts Research Critical Take-Away: Energy is the most painful trade.   As we show, the stocks still have not priced in the commodities move.  You can also pickup healthy yields, investment grade balance sheets and the stocks have highly asymmetric payoff structures based on history.

https://kailashconcepts.com/is-it-too-late-to-buy-oil-stocks/


2. Year to Date Returns…Consumer Staples ETF -4% vs. Consumer Discretionary -23%

www.yahoofinance.com


3. Shocker! State Backed Developers Benefit from China Housing Crisis

WSJ-Developers backed by the central or local governments have dominated land auctions around the country in recent months, thanks in part to their continued access to affordable financing. While they are also contending with slumping apartment sales and falling home prices, their sales drops have generally been less severe than those of their peers not backed by the state.

As China’s Private Developers Retreat, State-Backed Rivals Gain Ground-By 

Cao Li https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-chinas-private-developers-retreat-state-backed-rivals-gain-ground-11653989402


4. Interesting Chart to Watch as the FED Unwinds Balance Sheet

Mortgage Backed Securities ETF

www.stockcharts.com

VMBS has a negative 5 year performance

https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=vmbs+etf+performance&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8


5. According to WSJ-Factory Robotics Orders Jumped 40% Year Over Year in Q1 2022

ROBO chart -30% from Highs

WSJ-By Bob Tita

https://www.wsj.com/articles/robots-pick-up-more-work-at-busy-factories-11653822002

Robo Top Holdings-www.etf.com


6. Airbnb…Airlines Back to Pre-Covid Bookings

ABNB -50% Correction…Forming Base in Chart

www.stockcharts.com


7. Another Covid Stock …SQ (Block) $280 to $66….-75% Correction

www.stockcharts.com


8. National Homicide Clearance Rate Dropped to Historic Low

The Marshall Project– For homicide detectives, 2020 brought good news and bad news. On the one hand, police across the nation solved more murders — in absolute numbers — than in any year since 1997, according to data reported to the FBI. On the other hand, because new homicides increased sharply, the reported rate at which killings were solved, known as the “clearance rate,” declined to a little below 50%.

The lower clearance rate in 2020 was an extension of a long, steady drop since the early 1980s, when police cleared about 70% of all homicides, and a decline that experts say was exacerbated by the pandemic. (The FBI won’t release 2021 numbers until later this year.

As Murders Spiked, Police Solved About Half in 2020The U.S. homicide clearance rate is at a historic low. Here’s what that means. By WEIHUA LI and JAMILES LARTEY

 https://www.themarshallproject.org/2022/01/12/as-murders-spiked-police-solved-about-half-in-2020


9. The Uyghurs in China now live in a giant, open air prison camp

By

Steven W. Mosher

An estimated 2 million Uyghurs are interred in detention camps in the far-northern Chinese province of Xinjiang. Along being forced to renounce their Muslim faith, the Uyghurs are subject to grave human-rights abuses including torture and sexual exploitation. NY Post photo composite

There’s a cultural genocide taking place in China right now against the nation’s Uyghur minority. Aggressively monitored by Chinese authorities and faced with the constant threat of arrest or torture, this Turkish-speaking people in China’s Far West now exist in the world’s first, real-life, digital dictatorship.

It is no exaggeration to say the entire province of Xinjiang, an area only slightly smaller than Alaska, has been turned into a giant, open-air prison camp by the Chinese Communist Party. As author Nury Turkel explains in his new book, “No Escape: The True Story of China’s Genocide of the Uyghurs,” every neighborhood in Uyghur cities large and small now has its own hastily erected “convenience police station” manned by “low-level assistant police officers, who are more brute muscle than actual law enforcement officers.” The neighborhoods themselves are surrounded by manned check points, where those who want to leave are forced to squint into a camera for a retinal scan before departure.

Each neighborhood is further broken down into small “grids” of 15 to 20 families, each with an assigned a “grid monitor.” As the author writes, each monitor is tasked with snooping on their neighbors, reporting any suspicious or forbidden activities — such as Islamic practices like refusing to eat pork or fasting during Ramadan — to the authorities.

Then there are the Monday-morning flag-raising ceremonies, at which attendance is obligatory.  As the red flag of communist China is raised, writes Turkel, who’s ethnic Uyghur, Party officials “lead chanted slogans about the greatness of the party and its secretary-general, Xi Jinping, and the need for Uyghurs to abandon their faith in anyone but him.”

https://nypost.com/2022/06/04/the-uyghurs-in-china-now-live-in-a-giant-open-air-prison-camp/


10. Where Should You Focus?

Tiny Thought—Farnam Street Blog

In every area of life, there is a hidden asymmetry. If you apply your focus like everyone else, you will get the same results as everyone else. Understanding where to apply your focus makes a massive difference in results.

Everyone knows that focus matters. Most people don’t know where to focus. Telling people “to focus more” is about as helpful as telling them to “make better decisions.” Common advice but useless in practice.

Not all focus is equal. Some focus is asymmetric. Knowing where to focus makes a difference.

How do you know where to focus? The answer is a deep fluency in the problem. You need to embed yourself in the problem and the details. You need to try things, reflect, and learn. Sooner or later, you start to understand the hidden asymmetry.

A lot of business people treat all decisions the same, no matter the implications. They’ll spend as much time trying to decide a trivial decision as a major one. A lot of authors focus on the work and miss that how it’s positioned for the audience matters more. A lot of people go to the gym 4 days a week only to miss that what goes into their body and the amount of sleep matter more.

The visible problem might appear to be a lack of focus, but the invisible problem is often not knowing where to focus to get the best results.

In any field, a few areas of focus make an asymmetric difference. Often they’re hiding in plain sight and ignored by most.

One place to find asymmetry is to listen to people talk about others’ success … “that book sold a lot, but did you read it, it’s not well written.” That’s an indication that the quality of writing matters less than you think and something else matters more. Or consider the person that explains another person’s success away with “luck.” There might be an element of luck to it, sure, but when you pull back the curtain, I bet you discover they’re focusing a little bit more on something different. Success leaves clues.

What looks like a lack of focus is often a lack of understanding.

(Share this Tiny Thought on Twitter)

https://fs.blog

Topley’s Top 10 – May 31, 2022

1. 2000-2022 Trailing 12 Month P/E Ratios

Back to 2002 Levels Coming Out of Internet Bubble

Gina Adams Bloomberg https://twitter.com/GinaMartinAdams


2. SPDR Software ETF -41% Correction….Closed Below Long-Term Weekly Chart 200day Moving Average.

XSW closes below 200day


3. Regional Bank Index Sell-Off….Holds Support Going Back to Early 2021

www.stockcharts.com


4. Energy Select ETF Another Break-Out to New Highs

www.stockcharts.com


5. Number of Days that SPY Traded in Positive Territory All Day Plummets

Bespoke Investment Group All Day Rallies A Thing of the Past-It seems like a distant memory now, but Monday’s rally marked just the 13th time all year (and over the last 100 trading days) that the S&P 500 tracking ETF (SPY) opened higher and traded in positive territory all day (‘100% positive day’).  The chart below shows the rolling 100-trading day total number of 100% positive days for SPY since 1994, shortly after the ETF launched.  The current level of 13 is already well below the long-term average of 18, but last week, the reading was even lower at 12.  The last time the 100-day rolling total was lower than that was in May 2009, and the lowest readings ever recorded were in periods beginning in October 2002 and September 2008 with just six in a 100-trading day span.

What makes the current period unique is how quickly the rate of 100% positive days has plummeted.  100 trading days ago, the rolling total was more than twice the current level at 29.  Also, it was only in February 2021 (less than sixteen months ago) that the number of 100% positive days reached a record high of 33 on 2/4/21.  That peak came just weeks before the Federal Government sent out the third and final round of stimulus checks.  Just as massive amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus helped to support markets during COVID, the withdrawal of these supports has introduced gravity back into the equation.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/all-day-rallies-thing-ofpast


6. Natural Gas Huge Run Up in Price but Still Well Below 2008 Levels

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET. And the fracking boom that caused prices to collapse in the US starting in 2009, while prices soared elsewhere, is now being leveraged to export LNG, and we already kissed those collapsed natural gas prices of $2-3 per million Btu goodbye.

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/05/25/us-natural-gas-futures-spiked-to-highest-since-2008-tripled-in-a-year-why-we-kissed-that-dirt-cheap-natural-gas-goodbye/


7. Meanwhile, LNG exports are surging as U.S. inventories hold near the low end of the 5-year range.

Source: @WSJ  Read full article

The Daily Shot https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-may-27th-2022/


8. Personal Savings Rate Falls Back to 2008 Levels

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-27/us-savings-rate-drops-to-lowest-since-2008-as-inflation-bites?srnd=premium&sref=GGda9y2L


9. College Enrollment Fell for 11th Year in a Row

685,000 fewer students were enrolled in post-secondary education in America this spring, a 4.1% fall on 2021, which itself was a 3.5% fall on the numbers from 2020 according to data out yesterday from the NSC Research Center. That fall marks the 11th straight year that the spring count of total enrollments has dropped in the US.

The college conundrum

The biggest drop came in undergraduates, as 662,000 fewer undergraduates enrolled — a 4.7% drop on the year before. Community college numbers fell almost 8%.

Part of that fall could be explained away by the pandemic, where remote-learning distinctly diminished the college experience, but the scale and consistency of the declines suggest something larger is at play: college is losing its allure.

Once the golden ticket to a middle class life, the rise in the cost of college has outstripped the rise in the cost of living many times over in the last 50 years, suggesting that the math of the college decision is, for some prospective students, not adding up anymore.

Interestingly, the most well-known institutions are bucking this trend. The acceptance rate at Harvard plunged to an all-time low (~3%). The same happened at Stanford… and Yale… and Brown… and Columbia (to name but a few). The college path might not make quite as much sense for everyone as it used to, but the big name institutions aren’t the ones losing out.

www.chartr.com


10. Three flavors of a good life: Happy, Meaningful, Psychologically Rich

Psychology Today Marianna Pogosyan Ph.D. As a distinct, yet corelated dimension of a good life, the psychologically rich life differs from the existing hedonic-eudaimonic dichotomy in a number of ways. For example, if the emphasis of a happy life is on positive emotions and security, and the emphasis of a meaningful life is on purpose and coherence, then the hallmarks of a psychologically rich life are variety, interest and perspective (Oishi & Westgate, 2021). If a positive mindset facilitates a happy life, and moral principles facilitate a meaningful life, then curiosity and spontaneity will facilitate a psychologically rich life. If the outcome of a happy life is personal satisfaction and the outcome of a meaningful life is societal contribution, then the outcome of a psychologically rich life, according to Oishi, is wisdom.

To explore the three constructs of well-being differently, consider the metaphor of a beautiful garden. You might feel hedonic well-being whenever you are greeted by the lovely blooms as you stroll through your garden. You might experience eudaimonic well-being as you revel in the sense of purpose you receive from tending to your garden and sharing its gifts with others. According to Oishi, psychological richness arises as your garden undergoes seasonal changes. The landscape of the garden is in a constant flux. Its diverse inhabitants from the plant and animal kingdoms follow the Nature’s lead. As you watch your garden metamorphose through the seasons – aflush with color and harvest in one, barren and dormant in another – you might recognize the wealth, wonder and wisdom of life’s unfolding, to which you also belong.

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Here are 6 questions on the psychologically-rich life with Dr. Oishi.

What does a psychologically rich life look like?

A psychologically rich life is a life of curiosity and exploration. It’s not that you have to chase after new and exciting experiences all the time. Rather, it’s an invitation to remain curious about life in its fullness, and not limit yourself to the comforts of what you already know.

What is the mechanism that allows our experiences, at times even the challenging ones, to add up to a well-lived life?

Consider the differences between material wealth and psychological wealth. Material wealth, which can be money or other assets, is often tangible. For me, the psychological equivalent of material wealth are our stories. They might include our happy memories and the meaningful contributions we make to other people’s lives. But when it comes to psychological richness, sometimes even the difficult experiences that help us grow and see things in new ways can add to our wealth. That’s because those are often the experiences that we tend to with care and reflection, which then turn to insights and observations that we can carry with us and share with others.

Two people can have the same number of unusual experiences. For one person, these experiences will add up to bring about new insights and perspectives. For someone else, they will remain interesting, yet disparate events that don’t contribute to growth. In part, this discrepancy has to do with personality, value systems, and even mindset. For example, if someone wants to live an aesthetic life, then engaging with thought-provoking art can be transformative for them, compared to someone who isn’t interested in these values. It also matters how reflective the person is. Self-reflection might be what binds experiences together to make them count towards a well-lived life. When we deeply reflect on our experiences, the connections and insights that we gather can accumulate to make for a richer whole.

You argue that a psychologically rich life comprises of experiences in which novelty and complexity are followed by changes in perspective. Why is a change in perspective so important?

A change of perspective is precisely what captures some of the growth. For example, the reason why certain experiences such as study abroad programs can be so transformative, is because they often introduce us to new ways of thinking about life. In turn, we might become encouraged to engage with the novelty and complexity of the experience in ways that affect our understanding of the world and lead to growth.

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On the other hand, a person can go bungee-jumping for the sake of sensation seeking, and it might not change anything about the way they see life. Thus, change of perspective is an indication that we were able to digest the novelty, complexity and depth of the experience in new, insightful ways.

Can second-hand experiences, for example through literature and film, contribute to a psychologically rich life?

Great literature, poetry, film, music and art can significantly enrich our lives. I think humans created art and culture to essentially help themselves go through a wealth of experiences second-hand. As Marcel Proust wrote in In Search of Lost Time, a novel can help us experience the joys and sorrows of someone’s entire lifetime within a matter of hours. While first-hand experiences are obviously more real, sometimes the imaginary worlds that novelists craft can be as vivid.

How can we add psychological richness to our lives?

A good lesson can be found in studies about regret. According to research, short-term regret is usually about something you did, whereas long-term regret is about something you didn’t do. If you were to ask old people about their regrets, it often is about not having various experiences, not taking the job offer, not doing this or that. This mindset can help us be more willing to make changes.

What can research on psychological richness teach us about the good life?

Sometimes, people can be so obsessed with happiness, that they actively strive to stir their lives in one direction – that of positive emotions and comfort. But life is unpredictable, and unfortunately, not always pleasant. Psychological richness entails accepting life as it happens, in its entirety. If we consider stories that we accumulate and share with others as the currency of psychological richness, many of our experiences can lend new insights and propel us towards growth, thus adding up to wealth.

To me, this research diversifies the ways in which people could lead a good life. A happy life is a great life. A meaningful life is a great life. But at times, when happiness and meaning are hard to come by, or if you are not predisposed to them, you can still experience well-being and have a good, admirable life by leading a psychologically rich life.

Many thanks to Shige Oishi for his time and insights. Professor Oishi is a personality and social psychologist at the University of Virginia.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/between-cultures/202205/the-psychologically-rich-life?collection=1175818

Topley’s Top 10 – May 26, 2022

1. 40% of Trading Days this Year 1%+ Moves…2008 Levels

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright-A major portion of the trading days so far this year have seen SPX move at least 1% higher from its daily low into the close, with the count at 39 days through market action Monday. This equates to 39.80% of the days. which is significantly more than the average dating back to April 1987 at about 20.64% of the days. This also puts us on the highest pace of trading days with such a move since 2009. The only other year to see such a high pace of 1% intraday rallies came in 2008. We saw a significant count of intraday rallies from 1997 through 2002, although none of those years reached the current pace. The year with the lowest percentage of large rally days was 2017, which saw only one such day throughout the entire year.

https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright


2. Another 2008 Number….Max Pessimism–Percent that Expect “stronger economy” Lower than 2008

From Irrelevant Investor Blog https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2022/05/25/animal-spirits-the-most-obvious-recession-ever/


3. History of 7 Week Sell Offs.

Don’t Panic! What History Tells Us After 7 S&P 500 Losing Weeks-The S&P 500 has fallen for seven weeks. Here’s why you don’t want to panic now. BRET KENWELL

Seven straight weekly declines is a pretty rare occurrence. This is just the fourth time we’ve seen such a streak since 1928. The prior three scenarios occurred in 1970, 1980 and 2001. Interestingly, all four declines concluded either in March or May.

To little surprise, there is good news and bad news associated with the declines.

The bad news: In two of the three declines, the seven straight weeks of declines turned into eight straight weeks of declines (in 1970 and 2001).

Further, in both of those years, the market went on to retest the lows, although the time it took varied widely. After the bottom in 1970, the S&P 500 went on to break the low about 4 1/2 years later, in Q4 1974. In 2001, the index broke to new lows a little more than six months later following the 9/11 attacks.

The good news: Each downtrend of this magnitude (seven straight weeks or more) has marked the low for at least six months. Further, the longest stretch did not exceed eight straight weeks.

The “tldr” is we may endure more short-term pain, but we also could be near an intermediate or potentially even a long-term bottom.

S&P 500’s Performance From the Low After 7+ Straight Weeks of Declines

4 Weeks Later

1 Quarter Later

6 Months Later

1 Year Later

2001 15.4% 13.3% 4.8% 6.2%
1980 11.6% 23% 32.5% 42.9%
1970 7% 19.3% 22.75% 45%

For instance, following the low after each stretch of seven or more consecutive weekly declines, the S&P 500 was higher four weeks later, one quarter later, six months later and one year later. That’s promising.

In 2001 we had a nice initial burst off the lows, climbing 15.4% a month later and 13.3% one quarter later, although those gains faded a bit once we got to the 6-month and 12-month marks.

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/dont-panic-after-7-losing-weeks-in-sp-500


4. Big Correction in Consumer Discretionary but Still Trading at Premium vs. Historical

LPL Research

https://lplresearch.com/2022/05/25/difficult-outlook-for-consumer-discretionary/


5. Factor Returns Year to Date

 

 

https://www.zeninvestor.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/factors.png


6. Supply Bottlenecks Disappearing

United States: Supply bottlenecks are disappearing, which means suppliers will have a tough time raising or even maintaining prices.

Source: Daily Shot

The Daily Shot https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-may-25th-2022/


7. Alternative Investments Go Mainstream

www.chartr.com


8. CO2 Admissions and Commodities

From Michael Gayed Lead Lag Report

https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1529540557202153473/photo/1


9. Another Covid Chart…Beyond Meat $200 to $25

www.stockcharts.com


10. The 15 Rules Every Stoic Must Follow

https://www.njlifehacks.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/16-Rules-Every-Stoic-Must-Follow-Infographic.png

 

Topley’s Top 10 – May 25, 2022

1. U.S. Households Could Now Theoretically Repay All Indebtedness

Blackrock Rick Reider

Figure 5: US households could now theoretically repay all indebtedness with cash

https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/insights/prepping-financial-hurricane


2. Tesla Loses 50% of Market Cap Since November


3. S&P 500 has Only Fallen 8 Weeks in a Row 3x Since 1950

Irrelevant Investor-And to top it off, the stock market keeps going down. If the S&P 500 falls this week, it would be just the third time since 1950 that it fell for eight consecutive weeks.

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2022/05/24/recession/


4. Office REITS No Bounce Out of Covid

Jim Bianco https://twitter.com/biancoresearch


5. S&P Financials Trading at P/E 12

Despite yesterday’s gain, Financials -13% YTD; sector’s undemanding valuation – current P/E of 12 is almost 20% below past 5 years’ average – may reflect concerns about impact of economic slowdown and potential recession may have on banks’ earnings ⁦⁦

@SPDJIndices

From Liz Ann Sonders https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders


6. Thrifting is the new normal

Hope King, author of Axios Closer

Axios on facebook

Axios on twitter

Axios on linkedin

Axios on email

Data: GlobalData via ThredUP; Chart: Baidi Wang/Axios

Buying secondhand is no longer an afterthought.

Driving the news: 93% of shoppers in the U.S. have or are open to buying secondhand products, according to a new report from resale platform ThredUP out this morning.

  • That’s up from 70% in 2019.

Why it matters: We’ve grown increasingly aware of our consumption habits — particularly the youngest consumers among us — and are living in a period of high inflation which has us questioning our purchase decisions.

Details: Nearly 2 in 3 people believe their individual buying habits have a significant impact on the planet, according to a survey of 3,500 U.S. adults.

  • 82% of respondents said they feel a positive emotion when they buy used.
  • 74% said preowned apparel is more socially acceptable now than it was five years ago.

Yes, but: Saving money is the top reason people buy secondhand over new — across all age groups — the study found.

  • Among Gen Z, sustainability is the second top motivator.
  • For average consumers, being able to afford higher-end brands is the second leading motivator.

The big picture: E-commerce technology has matured so much over the past few years that it’s helped to increase the availability of used clothing around the world, whether that’s through dedicated platforms like ThredUP, Poshmark, The RealReal or a closet-sharing service like Tulerie.

What to watch: Big legacy brands are building more ways to resell their own products.

  • Doing so not only helps companies like Oscar de la Renta and Levi’s retain customers, but it also adds a new stream of revenue to their business by taking back what a resale platform may have made on their products.

https://www.axios.com/2022/05/17/resale-secondhand-americans-shopping


7. TikTok vs. T.V. vs. NFLX

Scott Galloway

https://www.profgalloway.com/tiktok-boom/


8. Average age of U.S. cars hits record high due to tight supplies, report says

Reuters

May 23 (Reuters) – U.S. consumers are using their existing vehicles for longer as the inventory of new cars and light trucks remains constrained due to supply chain challenges, marking an all-time high for the average age, according to a report from S&P Global Mobility.

The average age of light vehicles in operation (VIO) in the United States rose to 12.2 years this year, increasing by nearly two months from the prior year, the report said.

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The pandemic led consumers to shift from using from public transport and shared transport to personal cars, and since customers could not upgrade their vehicles, demand for used cars have accelerated and boosted the average vehicle age further, the report said.

Stress on global supply chains worsened in April as COVID-19 lockdown measures in China and the war in Ukraine lengthened delivery times, and air freight costs between the United States and Asia rose, the New York Federal Reserve reported in its latest update to a worldwide index of supply problems. read more

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The average age of light vehicles in operation in the U.S. is expected to rise through 2022 and 2023, as the pipeline for new vehicle production and sales continues to be weighed down by parts shortages, the report said.

Supply chain constraints have led to a decrease in vehicle scrappage, which measures the number of vehicles leaving the vehicle population, and has been a catalyst for the rise in average age over time.

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The report also said demand for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in the U.S. has been expanding rapidly over the past few years.

The average age of electric vehicles in the U.S. is 3.8 years of age this year, down from 3.9 last year, and has been hovering between 3 and 4.1 years since 2016.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/average-age-us-cars-hits-record-high-due-tight-supplies-report-2022-05-23/


9. The Increase in Public Home Builders Gross Margins

John Burns Real Estate

https://twitter.com/johnburnsjbrec


10. This Is the Exact Amount of Coffee You Should Drink, According to a Harvard Brain Expert

But don’t make it espresso or French press.

BY MINDA ZETLIN, AUTHOR OF CAREER SELF-CARE: FIND YOUR HAPPINESS, SUCCESS, AND FULFILLMENT AT WORK@MINDAZETLIN

Scientists agree: Drinking coffee is good for you. That’s good news if, like most Americans, you enjoy coffee and perhaps rely on it to help you wake up in the morning or stay alert during the day.

In the last couple of years, more detailed research on coffee has sought to zero in on just how much coffee you should drink every day for maximum health and brain benefits. They’ve found the answer: You should drink three cups. That advice comes from Dr. Uma Naidoo, who’s been described as a “triple threat”: a Harvard-trained psychiatrist, trained nutrition specialist, and trained chef. She’s also the author of the bestseller This Is Your Brain on Food. In an article at CNBC.com, Naidoo explains how she uses coffee as part of her daily routine to boost her own brain function. (Naidoo’s routine includes putting shots of espresso into golden milk, which sounds like a fantastic idea to me.) 

Why three cups? Naidoo points to a study in which researchers tracked both the coffee consumption and cognitive health of 676 elderly men over 10 years. They found that the coffee drinkers had less than half the cognitive decline as the non-coffee drinkers did. And those who drank three cups a day had the least decline of all. A larger Harvard study, with 208,501 participants (both men and women), examined the likelihood of death over more than 20 years. It found that participants who drank coffee were less likely to die early than those who didn’t, with the greatest longevity benefit going to those who drank between 3.1 and five cups a day.

If you want the maximum benefits from your coffee habit, make sure to follow these three rules.

1. Filter it.

Many sophisticated coffee drinkers favor espresso, French press, and Turkish coffee–and some love the Scandinavian tradition of boiling coffee with an egg in it (sometimes including the shell), which pulls together the grounds. Unfortunately, all these versions of coffee can be bad for you. When coffee is made without a paper filter, “oily chemicals called diterpenes come through that can raise artery-damaging LDL cholesterol,” according to the New York Times‘s Jane Brody. Brody, who uses coffee pods, actually dissected one to make sure it contained a paper filter (it did).

2. Be careful what you add.

Coffee may be good for you, but sugar is very bad for you. So if drinking coffee means getting a highly sweetened latte concoction from your favorite barista, you won’t be doing your health any favors–especially when you consider that espresso-based drinks like lattes are unfiltered.

A better strategy is to make your own drip coffee at home, using fresh-ground beans for both better flavor and better control over what exactly goes into your coffee. For added fun, put the $4 to $6 you would have spent at the coffee shop aside for every homemade cup you drink, then use that money for a special treat.

3. Pay attention to your own reactions to coffee. 

This is Naidoo’s advice and it’s an important tip to follow because everybody is different, and each of us may react differently to coffee’s effects. If it makes you feel jittery, cut back your consumption or cut it out altogether. The same holds true if you have trouble sleeping. Caffeine can affect your ability to fall asleep, and also whether you reach the deep sleep stage that your body and brain both need to stay healthy.

At the same time, pay attention to whether coffee lightens your mood, which it might. One of the most intriguing findings from the Harvard study is that coffee drinkers were half as likely to commit suicide as non-coffee drinkers. According to the research, the explanation may be that coffee boosts brain chemicals that have an antidepressant effect.

There’s a growing audience of Inc.com readers who receive a daily text from me with a self-care or motivational micro-challenge or idea. Often, they text me back and we wind up in a conversation. (Interested in joining? You can learn more here.) Many are entrepreneurs and business leaders, and they tell me that a bright mood and positive attitude makes all the difference when you’re running a business or leading a team.

So the most important question is: How does coffee make you feel? If it makes you feel nervous or interferes with your rest, then stay away from it or switch to decaf. If it makes you feel good, then drink up. Make sure to use a paper filter, and aim for three cups a day.

Correction: An earlier version of this column misspelled Uma Naidoo’s surname.https://www.inc.com/minda-zetlin/coffee-consumption-health-benefits-correct-amount-uma-maidoo-harvard.html

Topley’s Top 10 – May 24, 2022

1. Russian Economy Imploding…GDP -30%

https://twitter.com/RobinBrooksIIF


2. Concentration on Way Up…..Conentration on Way Down…..8 Stocks are Half the Stock Markets Decline.

Found at Barry Ritholtz Blog

https://ritholtz.com/2022/05/10-monday-am-reads-351/


3. 1100 Corporate Insiders Buying Stock in May

Bloomberg-ByLu Wang

Investors bailing on stocks because they’re afraid of a recession may want to consider the buying spree that is happening among people in charge of American businesses. 

Corporate insiders, whose purchases correctly signaled the bear-market bottom in 2020, are bottom fishing during the S&P 500’s longest stretch of weekly losses in two decades. They were rewarded Monday, as stocks jumped almost 2% on optimism the US will lift some tariffs on Chinese goods.

More than 1,100 corporate executives and officers have snapped up shares of their own firms in May, poised to exceed the number of sellers for the first month since March 2020 marked the pandemic trough two years ago, according to data compiled by the Washington Service.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-23/insiders-put-recession-angst-aside-to-binge-on-their-own-stocks?srnd=premium&sref=GGda9y2L


4. Precious Metal ETF Flows Turn Positive

Commodities:  Precious metals ETF flows have turned positive.

Source: Daily Shot

https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-may-23rd-2022/


5. GDX Gold Miners had a Fast -25% Correction April/May


6. 75% of Companies Mentioning Supply Chain for the Last 3 Quarters

FactSet

https://twitter.com/FactSet


7. Looks Like Supply Chain Issues Loosening….Total Ships L.A. Ports…..

From Dan Stratemeier-Managing Director-Equities, Event Driven Strategies


8. U.S. playing catch-up on electric vehicles

Axios on facebook

Axios on twitter

Axios on linkedin

Axios on email

Data: Global EV Outlook 2022; Chart: Jared Whalen/Axios

https://www.axios.com/2022/05/23/electric-vehicles-us-china-europe


9. Pew Research Majority of Americans Favor Exporting Natural Gas to Europe.

61% of Americans would favor exporting large amounts of natural gas to Europe

https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2022/05/12/a-majority-of-americans-favor-expanding-natural-gas-production-to-export-to-europe/ps_2022-05-12_energy-europe_00-01/


10. The Hidden Secret All Successful People Have but Don’t Talk About

 Chazz Scott

 

When most of us think about success in life, we automatically fix our minds upon material items of money, cars, clothes, or power. Many successful people indeed have these items at their disposal. However, many of us get blinded by these symbols of success and misplace where successful people actually receive their source of prosperity, abundance, and wealth.

All wealth, abundance, and prosperity in any aspect of life come from our minds. More specifically, our imagination. Many self-help authors and speakers may call this practice visualization.

Napoleon Hill said, “the imagination is the most powerful, most miraculous inconceivably powerful force that the world’s ever known.”

Why is it so powerful? Because if you cannot see the positive circumstances on the outside, you can build it on the inside, as Bob Proctor would say. In other words, if what you see with your eyes is not what you prefer in your life, you can imagine something different and work toward this image in your mind to reproduce it in your reality.

The Elon Musk way

Do you think Elon Musk could have built SpaceX if he didn’t have a vision or imagination? His goal was to create a fully reusable rocket that achieved a vertical soft landing back on earth. They failed numerous times but kept going. He held on to a future vision of the possible.

Now SpaceX is the first privately owned company to send a liquid-fueled rocket into orbit and the first to achieve a vertical soft landing of a reusable orbital rocket stage

This had never been done. NASA couldn’t do it, and neither could many private companies that had billions of dollars of research and development. And just like that, SpaceX achieved what many thought was impossible. And because of this innovation, money is being saved, making it cheaper to send rockets to space. Now NASA depends on SpaceX’s rockets for their space missions.

So, what did SpaceX have that all these other companies didn’t? They had a leader who had a vision and a vivid sense of imagination. Elon built an image of the possible instead of relying on what always had been. Even though SpaceX’s competitors had basically an unlimited budget, they still couldn’t get the job done. Vision mattered more than money. As Sam Walton, founder of Walmart, has said, “capital isn’t scarce; vision is.”

The Oprah Winfrey story

If that example seems extreme to you, let’s take Oprah as an example. A Baltimore TV producer told her that she was “unfit for television news.” Yet, she didn’t become consumed by her external conditions of what was said – she continued to follow the vision she built in her mind of what was possible. As a result, Oprah is one of the wealthiest people on TV.

Imagination is not something to be taken lately. If you think this is child’s play, that’s precisely what it is. Child’s play got Oprah, Elon, and many others rich and successful. Most people use their imagination as kids but never exercise it as they grow. Forcing many of us to rely on what we can see with our eyes for growth, success, and achievement. This results in stagnation because nothing changes unless you do. Change comes from within, not outside in.

Most people unconsciously use their imagination to guide them toward the very circumstances and conditions they don’t want. Why not use your imagination for success, happiness, health, and fulfillment? 

Unfortunately, if you continue to search for success with your eyes – your success is futile. What do I mean by this? Let’s think about this: every successful person you’ve ever heard about had to rely on vision to achieve their goals. They could not rely on their external conditions to pull themselves to success.

Each of them experienced pain, failure, disappointment, and loss. Still, they continued to follow a vision built with their imagination of what could be possible for them despite the negative they may be experiencing in their external conditions.

Pain is simply a teacher

Michael Beckwith famously said, “pain pushes us until our vision pulls.” In other words, pain is an excellent teacher to tell us how we don’t want to experience life. Once you know what you don’t want to experience in life (removal of pain), then you can begin to develop a future vision for yourself. Then, when your future vision of your success and life is created using your imagination – you will be pulled toward it.

This is when your brain’s reticular activating system (RAS) goes into full gear, finding conditions in your external reality that match the vision you’ve developed in your mind. This is when synchronicities, the right people will call, and things start working in your favor because you’re relying on a higher vision that is propelling you toward the very intention you’ve set for yourself.

Even the bible talks about how you must develop a future vision for yourself. More specifically, it says, “where there is no vision, the people perish.” So, if you have no vision, not only do you parish, but so does everyone around you – family, friends, and anyone that may rely on you.

In order to develop a future vision for yourself and begin to be pulled toward new conditions in your life that you may not be able to see with your physical eyes – you must exercise your imagination.

So, let’s do that now. Where do you want to go? Who do you want to become? What type of people do you want to be around and work with? How do you really want your life to be? What’s a big goal you’ve always wanted to accomplish? Do you want to become more confident, peaceful, or develop a sense of calmness in the face of adversity?

Begin to close your eyes and imagine it first, then work every day towards the dream you’ve developed in your mind. This is the true path to manifesting the life you desire despite the external conditions you may be facing.

As the saying goes, “if you don’t have a dream, there is no way to make one come true.”

https://addicted2success.com/success-advice/the-hidden-secret-all-successful-people-have-but-dont-talk-about

Topley’s Top 10 – May 23, 2022

1. Bull/Bear Indicator 1.5 ..Sentiment Can’t Get Much Lower

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/who-will-be-recessions-lehman-wall-streets-most-accurate-analyst-says-3600-new-bull-case


2. Market Performance During Summer Months

Dorsey Wright

https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright


3. Fang Plus Index Still 2000 Points Above Covid Lows.

FANG Index -40%….Covid Low was 2800

www.stockcharts.com


4. Right Now…90% of SPACS Below List Price

500+ SPACS in Last 2 Years Underwater

https://www.statista.com/chart/24008/growth-in-us-spac-ipos/


5. Growth Valuation Reset

WSJ https://www.wsj.com/articles/recession-looms-but-markets-havent-got-the-message-11652866209


6. $4 Trillion in Equity Value Lost Emerging Markets

After $5 Trillion Rout, Emerging Markets Seek Turnaround Signal—By Srinivasan Sivabalan and

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-22/after-5-trillion-rout-emerging-markets-seek-turnaround-signal?sref=GGda9y2L


7. Why the Fed matters to regular Americans, in one stunning chart…Year Over Year Mortgage Payments +43.4%

Myles Udland-Yahoo Finance

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-the-fed-matters-to-you-in-one-stunning-chart-morning-brief-100026868.html


8. Nine Months in a Row of Year Over Year Existing Home Sales Declines

Wolf Street-It was the ninth month in a row of year-over-year declines, even as supply of homes listed for sale continued to rise (data via YCharts):

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/05/19/as-supply-rise-mortgage-rates-spike-us-home-sales-fall-to-lowest-since-june-2020-plunge-in-californias-coastal-metros/


9. XHB Homebuilder ETF -32% from highs

www.stockcharts.com


10. Why the Most Intelligent People Love Spending Time Alone

If you crave time to yourself, science says you might be much more intelligent than the average person.

BY JEFF HADEN, CONTRIBUTING EDITOR, INC.@JEFF_HADEN

Science says people who socialize more tend to be happier. Makes sense: Relationships, friendships, connections, spending time with people we enjoy… all of that makes us happier.

But that’s not completely true if you’re highly intelligent. If that’s the case, socializing with friends will actually not increase your level of satisfaction with your life.

Here’s why. When researchers followed people between 18 and 28 years old, they found the more most of the people socialized, the happier they were.

How This Tech Founder Runs 4 Companies As a Digital Nomad 

But not the subset of people in the study who were highly intelligent: The more theysocialized, the less happy they were.

Why? Researchers ventured several explanations.

One theory is evolutionary: Greater intelligence lets smart people more easily adapt to a modern world where the benefits of staying in close contact with a social group for food, shelter, protection, etc., are no longer as important.

Another theory was aspirational: The smarter you are, the more focused you will be on longer-term goals — which means spending time with friends can be distracting instead of helpful.

In short, if you’re hanging out with people, you aren’t getting stuff done.

Of course, this is just one study. It may be only directionally accurate.

And the relationship between intelligence and the desire for “alone time” doesn’t necessarily work in reverse.

I’m a prime example: I like time alone… but I’m not particularly bright.

But in your case, if you like to spend time alone working on a project, learning something new, developing your business plan, or grinding away on the things you need to do achieve your goals, don’t assume you’re a loner.

And definitely don’t assume you’re antisocial.

There could be a much better answer: You might just be smarter than the rest of us.

https://www.inc.com/rebecca-deczynski/small-business-administration-small-business-person-of-the-year-bright-futures-jill-scarbro.html?cid=sf01003

Topley’s Top 10 – May 18, 2022

1. Highest 10% of Volatility Index Levels (VIX) Followed by Strongest S&P Returns

After the highest 10% of weekly closes in the Volatility Index ($VIX above 28.6), the S&P 500 has posted average returns over the next one to five years that are not only positive but well above periods when volatility was lower.

And following the 20 highest weekly closes in the $VIX, we’ve seen the strongest future returns on average.

https://compoundadvisors.com/2022/the-biggest-mistake-an-investor-can-make


2. Comparing 3 Bull Markets…..Current Bull Nowhere Near 1999-2000 Bubble.

Ozcam’s Razor: Mean Reversion-by Barry Ritholtz  Occam’s Razor: Mean Reversion – The Big Picture (ritholtz.com)


3. Cash Levels the Highest Since 2001

Cash levels among investors hit the highest level since September 2001, the report showed, with BofA describing the results as “extremely bearish.”


4. The Percentage of Small Cap Firms that Lose Money is at All Time High


https://kailashconcepts.com/team


5. Natural Gas Prices Have Doubled this Year….Now Facing Hot Summer.

Natural gas prices have already doubled this year. A hot summer could push them even higherthumbnail

Patti Domm@IN/PATTI-DOMM-9224884/@PATTIDOMM

KEY POINTS

  • U.S. natural gas prices have jumped 137% this year, and they could soar another 25% or more this summer if hotter weather persists.
  • The southern U.S. is hotter than normal, and a heat wave is contributing to higher demand and prices.
  • U.S. supplies in storage are below normal, and the hot weather comes at a time when the industry typically adds gas to storage for the winter months.
  • “The consumer is kind of at the mercy of mother nature at this point for the summer,” said one analyst.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/17/natural-gas-prices-have-already-doubled-this-year-a-hot-summer-could-push-them-even-higher.html

Natural Gas ETF….50day about to go thru 200day to upside.

www.stockcharts.com


6. M2 Money Supply Round Trip

Schwab Liz Ann Sonders-More than half of S&P 500 stocks are now in a bear market. The primary culprit is the drain of liquidity, both in terms of the “fiscal cliff” and monetary tightening underway. There are only two other periods in the past 40 years when financial conditions tightened more than they have in the past four months: the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 bear market eras. As shown below, there has been an epic round-trip in M2 money supply growth—helping explain both the market’s surge coming off the pandemic low in March 2020, and the bear market(s) that recently got underway.

Money supply’s round-trip

Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, as of 3/31/2022.

M2 is a measure of the U.S. money stock that includes M1 (currency and coins held by the non-bank public, checkable deposits, and travelers’ checks) plus savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits under $100,000, and shares in retail money market mutual funds.

https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/doom-and-gloom-when-will-it-end


7. Construction Employment Slows Prior to Recessions…An Indicator to Watch

Macro Alf https://twitter.com/MacroAlf


8. The Gap Between House Payments and Apartment Rents is Expanding

Entry costs for home purchase have spiked. With the typical U.S. home price now pushing toward $400,000 and the average mortgage interest rate rising above 5 percent, a household buying in 2022 has a standard monthly payment that tops $2,300, once taxes and insurance costs are added to the calculation.

That typical monthly mortgage expense is more than $600 above the nation’s average apartment rent of $1,671, according to Institutional Property Advisors (IPA) calculations. The country’s monthly payment premium to buy versus rent housing is at the highest level recorded since the 2006-2007 time period.

Greg Willett https://www.linkedin.com/in/greg-willett-23a065156/


9. Traffic Deaths Back Up Post Covid

AP NEWS

Nearly 43,000 people died on US roads last year, agency saysBy TOM KRISHER and HOPE YEN

https://apnews.com/article/health-government-and-politics-pandemics-transportation-8388d8ca4b1ad141939fe07ce00f9c7f


10. The Best Leaders Have a Contagious Positive Energy

by Emma Seppälä and Kim Cameron

Researchers and leaders have looked for the secret to successful leadership for centuries. Dozens of new books each year promise to deliver the answer. We decided to examine this question empirically, and when we did, we found that the greatest predictor of success for leaders is not their charisma, influence, or power. It is not personality, attractiveness, or innovative genius. The one thing that supersedes all these factors is positive relational energy: the energy exchanged between people that helps uplift, enthuse, and renew them.

Here’s what leaders need to know about positive relational energy, which we’ve found to be the most underutilized yet powerful predictor of leadership and organizational success.

The Importance of Positive Relational Energy

In our work, including interviews with thousands of leaders and employees, an upcoming book, and two decades of research on positive leadership, we’ve looked at people in terms of their networks of relationships: communities, organizations, and families. We’ve observed that certain relationships within those networks are extraordinarily life-enhancing and uplifting. The result is extraordinary performance. In particular, there’s usually one person at the center of these networks who’s responsible for most of the forward motion — not to mention well-being — of all the rest. We call them positive energizers.

Energizers’ greatest secret is that, by uplifting others through authentic, values-based leadership, they end up lifting up both themselves and their organizations. Positive energizers demonstrate and cultivate virtuous actions, including forgiveness, compassion, humility, kindness, trust, integrity, honesty, generosity, gratitude, and recognition in the organization. As a result, everyone flourishes.

The pandemic has taken a significant toll on the well-being and energy of so many. Positively energizing leaders are more crucial than ever. Positive energy, however, is not the superficial demonstration of false positivity, like trying to think happy thoughts or turning a blind eye to the very real stresses and pressures overloaded employees are experiencing. Rather, it is the active demonstration of values.

You’ve met people like this. They’re like the sun. These people walk into a room and make it glow. Everyone becomes energized, enthused, inspired, and connected. These incandescent people are positive energizers. Other members of these networks are depleting: the ones who leave the others feeling de-energized, demoralized, diminished, and uninspired. You know the ones — they sap your energy every time. We’ve given them the name de-energizers.

In our analysis of these energizing and de-energizing individuals in the work environment, we were especially interested in studying the energizing effects of leaders, because leaders are the single most important factor in accounting for an organization’s performance. These studies gave us tremendous insight into the secrets of every successful leader.

Numerous studies run by our group and our colleagues show that positive energizers produce substantially higher levels of engagement, lower turnover, and enhanced feelings of well-being among employees. This is partly because at the cellular level of brain activity, cortical thickness is enhanced through exposure to relational energy, hormones such as oxytocin and dopamine are increased, and at the cellular level in the body, inflammation is reduced and immunity to disease is enhanced. In organizations, superior shareholder returns occur, and in some of our studies, outcomes exceeded industry averages in profitability and productivity by a factor of four or more.

Here’s what differentiates positive relational energy. Physical energy diminishes with use. Running a marathon exhausts us. We need recuperation time. The same is true with the use of mental and emotional energy. We become fatigued and need to recover. The only kind of energy that doesn’t diminish but actually elevates with use is positive relational energy. We rarely get exhausted, for example, by being around people with whom we have loving, trusting, supportive relationships. Positive relational energy is self-enhancing. The ability of leaders to engender relational energy is in fact so powerful that it gives energizers an extraordinary advantage. They can turn around failing companies, resolve seemingly doomed situations, and revitalize disengaged and burned-out employees.

Assessing Relational Energy

Here’s how we identified energizers: We asked members of hundreds of organizations — from mom-and-pop startups to multinational corporations — this question: “When I interact with this person [person X] in my organization, what happens to my energy?” In other words, each person was asked to rate themselves on a scale from very positively energized to very de-energized when they interacted with another person in their enterprise. Each member of a senior team, for example, rated their interaction with every other member of the senior team.

We were astonished by the results of this research. When leaders display positive relational energy, it catapults performance to a new level. More specifically, positive energizers:

  • Are themselves far higher performers than others
  • Positively impact others’ performance, so that other people tend to flourish in their presence
  • Exist in greater numbers at high-performing organizations than at average-performing organizations

When the leader is a positive energizer, the organization has greater:

  • Innovation (the number-one attribute that CEOs look for across industries and countries)
  • Teamwork
  • Financial performance, including productivity and quality
  • Workplace cohesion

And when a leader is a positive energizer, employees have greater:

  • Job satisfaction
  • Well-being
  • Engagement
  • Performance
  • Relationships with family

What Makes Positively Energizing Leaders So Successful?

There is a botanical term for these results: the heliotropic effect. That’s the phenomenon whereby plants naturally turn toward and grow in the presence of light. In nature, light is the life-giving force; photosynthesis occurs only in its presence. Human beings have the same inherent attraction toward life-giving and life-supporting energy. This form of energy is what you receive — and give — in relationships with others.Decades of research shows that this positive relational energy nourishes us and makes us come alive. For example, research by UC Irvine professor Sarah Pressman shows that the need for positive social connection is so great that the lack of it is worse for your health than smoking, obesity, or high blood pressure and reduces longevity. In contrast, positive social connection can not only lengthen our life, but also strengthen our immune system and lower rates of anxiety and depression.

In organizations, these effects are magnified through the leader. That is, leaders’ relational energy has an outsize effect on employees, more so than almost any other relationship at work.

Consider, for example, Ashley Bernardi, founder and CEO of media relations firm Nardi Media. She saw her business revenue double in the span of two years, from six to seven figures — despite the economic upheaval of the pandemic. Bernardi had made one change in who she was when she was leading, and it’s something anyone can learn.

A health crisis in 2016 led her to change direction on how she was leading her company and team. After experiencing a debilitating form of Lyme disease coupled with postpartum depression that left her bedridden after the birth of her third child, Bernardi had a moment of truth. Her illness led to greater compassion and understanding for others. She realized that everyone shows up to work with the challenges they’re facing in their personal lives. As she healed physically and became a more compassionate leader, her business began to blossom. She dedicated time to creating her company core values — which include family and kindness — and made sure to set that example for her growing team and clientele. And for the first time in her life, Bernardi began to take excellent care of her physical well-being and emotional health: She regularly practiced meditation, breathwork, and yoga; took up running; prioritized good sleep; and, yes, even took work breaks and naps. She signed up for Yale’s Coursera course on the science of well-being.

As you can now guess, Bernardi is a positively energizing leader. As she tells the story: “When I learned to put myself first, I saw transformation happen in my life in the most powerful ways: I attracted like-minded team members who lifted each other up and aligned with my core values, one of them being kindness. Our business flourished.”

How Do Positive Energizers Do It?

There’s more to this than the need for employees to feel valued, respected, and engaged; we already know those things are important. When they get recognition, support, and encouragement, absenteeism is low, productivity and profitability are high, and quality and safety improve. But positive energizers catalyze all this and more.

Positive relational energy then becomes reciprocal. An energizing approach to others acts as a continual energy-boosting mechanism, which, in turn, produces an abundance of energy in the whole network. Energizers reproduce themselves, building networks of positive energizers around them, and that heliotropic effect expands to attract still more. To paraphrase the proven leader Dolly Parton: If your actions inspire others to dream more, learn more, do more, and become more, you are a positive, energizing leader. Many studies on positive leadership demonstrate that leaders focused on contributing to others are substantially more effective than leaders focused on personal achievement and success. Their organizations and their employees excel.

Can organizations flourish with leaders who deplete rather than generate energy? Of course — in the short term. But the empirical evidence is clear that positive energy is far more effective long term. Over time, employees become averse to de-energizing and life-depleting leaders, and that’s not a chance leaders can take during the Great Resignation (nor, we would argue, in economic boom times, either). That heliotropic energy will renew itself many times over, and inspire focus, trust, and sincere investment in your goals. Your employees will turn toward the sun.

https://hbr.org/2022/04/the-best-leaders-have-a-contagious-positive-energy?utm_campaign=hbr&utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkedin

Topley’s Top 10 – May 17, 2022

1. IPO Drawdown (Sell Off) Equal to Dotcom Bubble.

Bespoke Investment Group

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/dot-com-drawdowns


2. Russell 1000 Growth -24% Year to Date

IWF-Russell 1000 Growth ETF still above 200 week moving average

www.stockcharts.com


3. Hedge Funds See Largest Gross Risk Reduction in Last 6 Years.

Dave Lutz at Jones Trading–GS Notes May 5th to 11th saw the Largest 5-day gross reduction by hedge funds in the last 6 years


4. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Approaching 2008 Levels.

United States: University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropped to the lowest level since 2011.

Source: Daily Shot

https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-may-16th-2022/


5. Muni Performance Year to Date

https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/literature/product-commentary/municipal-market-update-en-us.pdf

History of Muni Drawdowns…Recent  History Since 2008 the Drawdowns were for Credit Issues….Now Higher Interest Rates.

https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/tmt-march-twenty-five-twenty-two-daily


6. Record Inflation ….Gold Sideways for Over a Year

www.stockcharts.com


7. $76 Billion in Inflows Last Week to ETFs…No Mass Exodus

Top 10 Creations (All ETFs)

Ticker Name Net Flows ($,mm) AUM ($, mm) AUM % Change
BSV Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF

2,979.34

39,792.43

7.49%

SHV iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF

1,498.62

19,278.19

7.77%

IWM iShares Russell 2000 ETF

1,335.33

51,729.87

2.58%

SPYD SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend ETF

1,267.77

7,913.74

16.02%

VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF

1,177.90

245,332.38

0.48%

BIL SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF

1,142.90

18,020.37

6.34%

MUB iShares National Muni Bond ETF

1,084.19

26,585.62

4.08%

SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

961.62

353,370.60

0.27%

TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

918.09

19,485.62

4.71%

GOVT iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF

806.33

17,478.90

4.61%

 

Top 10 Redemptions (All ETFs)

Ticker Name Net Flows ($,mm) AUM ($, mm) AUM % Change
GLD SPDR Gold Trust

-1,560.76

62,355.36

-2.50%

VHT Vanguard Health Care ETF

-896.39

15,096.76

-5.94%

XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund

-855.83

33,738.98

-2.54%

VLUE iShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF

-742.31

10,980.82

-6.76%

QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust

-646.02

158,126.39

-0.41%

GSLC Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta U.S. Large Cap Equity ETF

-563.82

11,455.90

-4.92%

VBR Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF

-550.57

22,862.60

-2.41%

SRLN SPDR Blackstone Senior Loan ETF

-541.46

9,634.73

-5.62%

VGT Vanguard Information Technology ETF

-521.22

40,792.87

-1.28%

VB Vanguard Small-Cap ETF

-512.53

40,150.35

-1.28%

https://www.etf.com/sections/weekly-etf-flows/weekly-etf-flows-2022-05-13-2022-05-09


8. Saudi Aramaco 80% Increase in Net Profit.

Oil giant Aramco reports record first quarter as oil prices soarthumbnail

Dan Murphy@DAN_MURPHY

KEY POINTS

  • Oil giant Aramco reported a more-than 80% jump in net profit Sunday, topping analyst expectations and setting a new quarterly earnings record since its IPO.
  • The Saudi Arabian behemoth said net income rose 82% to $39.5 billion in the first three months of the year, up from $21.7 billion over the same period last year.
  • The Aramco results reflect an ongoing momentum in the oil and gas industry, which has benefited from a more-than 45% increase in prices since the start of the year.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/15/aramco-worlds-largest-company-reports-record-first-quarter-as-oil-prices-soar.html


9. Tesla is the Ultimate Believers vs. Non-Believers Stock….Wide Price Range by Analysts $250 to $1620

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/no-greater-divide-tesla-stock-104430271.html


10. Take It Easy: Too Much Exercise Frazzles the Vagus Nerve

Excessive exercise lowers heart rate variability and negatively affects mood.  Christopher Bergland

KEY POINTS

  • Heart rate variability (HRV) is an index of healthy vagal tone. HRV reflects how the autonomic nervous system is responding to stress.
  • Vagus nerve stimulation increases HRV and calms the nervous system by activating parasympathetic responses that counteract stress.
  • Overstressing the body with too much exercise disrupts vagus nerve activity, as indexed by low HRV and negative mood states the next day.

Improving physical fitness requires putting stress on your system during vigorous workouts. But the quest for peak performance often backfires—the psychophysiological distress caused by excessive exercise isn’t good for you. Finding a “Goldilocks zone” where your daily workouts put enough stress on your body to improve fitness without overdoing it can be tricky.

For example, when I was trying to get in shape for extreme events like the Triple Ironman (7.2-mile swim, 336-mile bike, 78.6-mile run), the risk of injury and burnout was extremely high. Monitoring fluctuations in my heart rate variability (HRV) was a way to make sure I wasn’t overtraining.

The vagus nerve‘s ability to counteract the sympathetic nervous system‘s fight-or-flight stress response is reflected by higher HRV.

In addition to keeping tabs on how my nervous system responded to the previous day’s stress load by using HRV, I also kept tabs on day-to-day mood changes. Through trial and error, it became clear that if I was really cranky and in a foul mood the morning after an intense training session, it meant I was on the verge of getting burned out from overtraining and needed to take it easy for a day or two.

As a retired extreme-distance athlete, I know from lived experience that doing too much exercise can be harmful to your psychological and physical well-being. Overtraining is every endurance athlete’s Achilles heel. It’s so easy for one’s passion for sports and competition to become exercise fanaticism, which often leads to injuries or overwhelming psychological distress.

Overtraining, Low HRV, and Negative Moods Go Hand in Hand

New research (Alfonso and Capdevila, 2022) from the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB) in Spain gives us fresh insights into the link between HRV, overtraining, and mood states. Their peer-reviewed findings were published on March 30 in the PeerJ journal.

Carla Alfonso and Lluis Capdevila of UAB’s Laboratory of Sport Psychology found that if a bike workout was very intense and put too much stress on a cyclist’s body, HRV plummeted the following morning. Alfonso and Capdevila also discovered that HRV levels correlated with cyclists’ moods. Low HRV was correlated with negative mood states; higher HRV was associated with better mood states.

“The objective of the research was to explore the relation among three aspects: training, heart rate variability, and mood,” Alfonso said in a news release. “With this study, we aimed to know when an athlete must rest, because their system is saturated, and when an athlete can train, with more or less intensity, because their body is ready to assimilate the training load.”

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The main takeaway from this pilot study is that HRV and mood states seem to rise and fall in tandem. For example, if a “weekend warrior” overdoes it on Sunday, odds are that they’ll be cranky or in a bad mood Monday morning. Negative mood states the day after putting too much stress on your body by overtraining correlate with lower HRV.

Heart Rate Variability Reflects the Vagus Nerve’s Response to Stress

The vagus nerve secretes an inhibitory substance directly onto the heart, slowing it down. Heart rate variability measures how effectively vagus nerve activity is creating healthy fluctuations between heartbeats. Higher HRV indicates that the body has a robust ability to tolerate and recover from stress. Conversely, lower HRV means that the vagus nerve is “frazzled” and isn’t effectively inhibiting the sympathetic nervous system’s fight-or-flight response, which revs up heartbeats and reflects a lower stress tolerance.

Otto Loewi won a Nobel Prize in 1936 for his discovery that stimulating the vagus nerve releases an inhibitory substance that slows heartbeats and calms the nervous system.

In the 1970s, my neurosurgeon father taught me about Loewi’s vagus nerve research in the context of maintaining grace under pressure. My dad knew that “vagusstoff” was released during the exhalation phase of the breathing cycle. So, he used breathing exercises to stay calm during brain surgery and on the tennis court. (See “How ‘Vagusstoff’ (Vagus Nerve Substance) Calms Us Down.“)

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When I was a young tennis player, Dad coached me to take a quick inhalation through my nose followed by a long, slow exhalation through pursed lips to calm my nerves before every serve. A recent study found that one five-minute session of deep, slow-breathing exercise (four seconds in, six seconds out) increases vagal tone and reduces anxiety. Personally, I prefer an inhale-exhale ratio of four-second inhalations followed by eight-second exhalations.

On the basis of evidence-based research and lived experience, I know that longer exhalations are an easy way to hack your vagus nerve by triggering the release of vagusstoff. But, I also understand that the calming effect of these breathing exercises tends to be short-lived.

When the sympathetic nervous system is overstimulated by too much exercise, diaphragmatic breathing is just a bandage that gives you temporary relief. Rest is the best remedy for giving your vagus nerve and parasympathetic system a chance to bounce back.

To Sum Up: Excessive Exercise Reduces Vagus Nerve Tone as Indexed by Low HRV

HRV is an indispensable tool for keeping tabs on how your vagus nerve responds to exercise-induced stress and ensuring that you don’t overtrain. Low HRV indicates that the fight-or-flight mechanisms of your sympathetic nervous system are in hyperdrive and that vagal tone is weak. Conversely, higher HRV shows that vagus nerve activity is robust and that your parasympathetic nervous system is handling stress well.

The latest research (2022) on HRV and overtraining reaffirms that low HRV is a warning sign that your vagus nerve may be “frazzled” from too much psychophysiological distress. If you don’t have access to an HRV monitor, experiencing negative moods the day after exercising vigorously may be a sign that you should take it easy for the next 24 hours and give your system time to recuperate.

Topley’s Top 10 – May 13, 2022

1. Each of the prior 14 rate rising cycles something broke

Barry Ritholtz Blog

https://ritholtz.com/2022/05/10-thursday-am-reads-386/


2. Nasdaq -16% One Month

10 Year Treasury Yields Fall Last 5 Days ….3.10 to 2.84


3. Global Growth Stocks Underperformance Hits 2008 Levels.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-12/tumbling-megacap-stocks-have-just-hit-a-new-dotcom-milestone?sref=GGda9y2L


4. Valuations Getting Close to 25 Year Median Levels Based on Forward P/E

From Zerohedge

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/SP500ForwardPE.jpg?itok=Uewzi1AI


5. Recent Favorite….Uranium ETF Corrects -34%


6. Softbank -66% from Highs….50day thru 200day to downside long-term weekly chart

www.stockcharts.com


7. China Dominates Some Key Minerals

The Daily Shot Blog


8. Inflation Tops Americans List of Biggest Problems.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/05/12/by-a-wide-margin-americans-view-inflation-as-the-top-problem-facing-the-country-today/ft_2022-05-12_nationalproblems_01/


9. Inventory Crunch Making Things Impossible for Homebuyers.

Marketwatch–By Katie Marriner  Jacob Passy

The U.S. is experiencing an unprecedented housing inventory crunch, but no city in the nation has seen the available homes for sale drop more than El Paso. In March of this year, there were just 1,154 homes listed for sale in El Paso County, down 78% from March 2017—the steepest decline of any highly populated U.S. county over that period, according to a MarketWatch analysis. In El Paso, the median home had been on the market for just 38 days as of March, down from about 3.5 months five years earlier. Investor purchases in March more than doubled from five years earlier, while all-cash deals were up 130%, according to data from Attom Data Solutions.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/inside-americas-housing-inventory-crunch-homes-available-for-sale-plunged-more-than-70-in-el-paso-raleigh-and-las-vegas-in-five-years-11652360287?mod=home-page


10. Deepak Chopra: A Life of Fullfillment

Success.com  By Mike Zimmerman | August 17, 2021 | 0 

 

On his 14th birthday, Deepak Chopra’s father made a small, yet purposeful gesture: He gave his son some novels by Sinclair Lewis and W. Somerset Maugham as a birthday gift.

Chopra’s father was a doctor in their native India, and he wanted his son to become a doctor, too. Chopra dreamed of becoming a writer. He ignored biology and chemistry in school. “The people I most admired were journalists and other writers who were friends of the family,” he told SUCCESS. “I had no interest in being a physician. But my father knew two things: that I had a fertile imagination and that those books were all about doctors and healers. At 14, you’re very pliable, so after reading them, I went to my father and said I wanted to be a physician.”

Imagine the knowing smile on dad’s face. Chopra went on to America to become a respected endocrinologist, a medical school professor and eventually, one of the foremost proponents of mind-body medicine, or the combination of Western medical knowledge with ancient Eastern philosophies. He is also the author of more than 50 books, including Reinventing the Body, Resurrecting the Soul. And today, when you consider that our culture’s standard definition of success is money, fame and influence, Deepak Chopra indeed has collected them all.

But that last sentence cheapens his accomplishments. He didn’t just become successful. He fulfilled his own definition of success. That’s a far richer accomplishment. The fact that he fulfilled the fame/fortune/ power success trifecta along the way (what he calls the “restricted” definition of success) is almost a byproduct. “I define success as the following,” Chopra says. “No. 1, the progressive realization of worthy goals. No. 2, the ability to love and have compassion. No. 3, to be in touch with the creative source inside you. And No. 4, to ultimately move from success to significance.”

That last part is crucial. It’s what creates people like Bill Gates and Warren Buffett—people whose material success becomes great enough that they can concentrate on more humanistic and satisfying endeavors, or “significance,” as Chopra says. Through that work, they become greater than their success, and ultimately, when they’re alone, out of the spotlight, that’s what drives them. “Material success by itself without significance to the common good ultimately is not fulfilling,” says Chopra, and he speaks from experience.

In short, folks like Gates, Buffett and Deepak Chopra are not the type who think about making enough money to “retire by 40,” or some other target age. They don’t think about retiring at any age. They’re at war with dissatisfaction, which keeps them fine-tuning their A-game and their long-term goals. Money is simply the byproduct of that process.

Now, Chopra warns, that’s not to say that material success isn’t exciting. “Oh, in the beginning it’s very exciting,” he says with a chuckle. “Though, over many years of soul-searching and observing people, I have discovered to my own amazement, actually, that being extremely wealthy is meaningless.”

He cites a close friend of his, a multimillionaire, as proof. “This man’s level of happiness or misery depends every evening on an e-mail that informs him what his net worth is, based on what the stock market did that day. What kind of life is that? He’s a classic example of millions of dollars not making a person happy.”

“Material success by itself without significance to the common good ultimately is not fulfilling.”

So the secret is to forget all about money? Not at all. “Financial security is very important,” says Chopra, for the freedom it allows. However, the secret to real success goes deeper. Don’t pursue happiness, he says. Especially don’t pursue excitement, like the kind provided by making and spending big numbers. Pursue excellence. Pursue fulfillment. And Chopra has done that by fulfilling not society’s definition of success, but his own. It’s real. It’s meaningful. And the best part: It’s all his.

“True wealth comes from creativity,” he says. “Somehow, in modern society, wealth and money have become equated. Money is not wealth. Wealth in its true sense is success,” as Chopra defines it for himself.

How does creativity impact success? Creativity is all about its root word: Create something of value that wasn’t there before. Creativity is also freedom of thought directed toward your goals. Very few people embrace this, Chopra says. Oh, they talk a terrific game about life goals and potential business models and cool new ideas to increase income streams. But true creativity requires an open mind and curiosity, two phenomena that have become rare these days.

Why? Today, people don’t have open minds. Many of us are closed off to even the slightest deviation in mindset, even though most people would probably consider themselves “creative” and “curious.” They’re liars, says Chopra, and two factors—the financial crisis and Sept. 11—prove it.

“Curiosity and open-mindedness mean being aware of what’s going on in your world,” he says. “What has happened in the past couple decades with economic disasters is the result of not having full awareness of what’s really happening around us. We were forced to do that after 9/11. Now we know more about the rest of the world, and we also see the context in which violence arises, in which power arises, in which ecological disasters occur.”

You might ask, What does that have to do with fulfilling my potential? Well, being locked up in your own mindset means being locked out of the world around you. “Creativity, imagination, insight, intuition, conscious choice-making, love, compassion, understanding— these are the qualities of a core consciousness that we come with into the world as children,” Chopra says. “But then we get programmed into the hypnosis of social conditioning, which says instant gratification is the way to be happy. That’s sold to us every single day.”

Chopra suggests several ways to break open more creativity and curiosity:

Adopt a growth mindset.

Chopra says research over the past five years has shown that when adversity strikes, happier people tend to see creative opportunities, while unhappier people see, well, adversity. “It’s programmed through childhood through a phenomenon called mirror neurons,” he says. “If you saw people complaining all the time when you were a kid, that’s what you do. Your neurons mirror the behavior.” To change your mindset, step back and ask yourself, How can I turn this into an opportunity?

Engage the “unfriendlies.”

This is not the same as “sleeping with the enemy.” It simply means make an effort to connect with those you have the least in common with, or even flat-out disagree with, and dissect their point of view until you understand its inherent value (it’s there, alright). This, Chopra says, is the hallmark of the creative, curious, open mind. “There has been a lot of literature on emotional intelligence, social intelligence, and how they’re all linked. We have a person who is now president who, on some level, knew all this. He bonded with America in a way that was amazing, despite the fact that his middle name is Hussein, and he transcends in many ways the definition of identity: Is he black? Is he white? And yet, he beat all the odds and became president.”

Read.

Such a simple concept, but a hallmark of learning that’s, again, ignored by many (even with pride by some). But reading is what allowed Chopra to fulfill two life dreams. The boy who wanted to be a writer instead became a doctor… who has written more than 50 books. Indeed, you can fulfill multiple destinies. Chopra could not have done that without reading and more reading. “Books have always influenced my life. I get a strange sense of joy boarding a plane knowing I’m carrying 100 books [on my Kindle].”

This article was published in November 2009 and has been updated. Photo by Getty.

https://www.success.com/deepak-chopra-a-life-of-fullfillment/

Mike Zimmerman

Topley’s Top 10 – May 12, 2022

1. Not Sure if These 2 Were the Top Last Week at Crypto Gathering

Royal Flush: Inside Crypto’s Most Exclusive Gathering (forbes.com)

Coinbase Joins the Wipeout Disruptor Stock List -86% from Highs

www.stockcharts.com


2. Disruptor Stocks Blow Up List

@Charlie Bilello


3. Over 40% of S&P 500 Stocks Below Pre-COVID Highs

The world changed dramatically with the onslaught of the COVID pandemic in early 2020. Businesses were forced to digitize, consumers saved at historic rates, the Federal Government and Federal Reserve flooded the economy with cash, new hobbies were picked up faster than a dropped hundred dollar bill, and consumers emerged from the lockdowns financially stronger than ever. Long story short, COVID appeared to permanently alter the ways in which consumers and businesses interact, and companies that stood to benefit from the new way of life saw their stocks surge while the old-economy stalwarts were crushed. That was then.

This is now. As the economy has emerged from COVID, the cost of inputs has skyrocketed, real buying power has diminished, supply chains have become strained, and geopolitical tensions are hot.  Not only that, but whereas the rate of fiscal and monetary stimulus was stronger than ever during the pandemic, the headwind from their removal is as intense as it gets.

Given the shifts, a number of stocks that originally surged in the COVID world have been hit hard in the post-Covid environment, and some of the biggest COVID losers during the lockdowns have turned into market leaders.  As things currently stand, 40.6% of S&P 500 members are below their pre-COVID highs (closing high price from the start of 2019 through the end of February 2020), even as the index is up 18.0% from its pre-COVID closing high on 2/19/20. Besides the fact that four out of every ten S&P 500 stocks are below their pre-COVID highs, 8.1% of the index members are within 5% of their pre-COVID high and another 7.1% are within 10% of their pre-COVID highs.

At the sector level, three sectors – Communication Services, Real Estate, and Utilities- have more than half of their components trading below their pre-COVID highs.  In addition to those three sectors, in both the Consumer Discretionary and Financials sectors, more than 40% of components are below their pre-COVID highs, and another 10% of each sector’s components are within 10% of those former highs. At the other end of the spectrum, the original ‘losers’ from COVID like Energy and Materials have fewer than a quarter of their components trading below their pre-COVID highs. While it seems some days like COVID will never go away, the rallies that a large number of stocks experienced are now nothing more than memories.   Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/over-40-of-sp-500-stocks-below-pre-covid-highs


4. History of Heavy Over 93% Down Volume.

@jasongoepfert  About the only positive here is that selling has been so bad it might be exhaustive. Over the past 60 years, there have been 12 times (besides today) when 2 out of 3 sessions saw 93% or more of volume focused on falling stocks. 11 of them witnessed a rebound.

https://twitter.com/jasongoepfert


5. Median Small Cap Drawdown on Par with Tech Bubble.

@jonrice80 Fully realize there are many ways to measure sentiment, but we are getting into rare territory for median small cap drawdowns. Median US small cap now down 41% from 52 week high. Now on par with tech bubble, creeping on COVID, still a ways from 08/09

https://twitter.com/jonrice80/status/1523787659289653248/photo/1


6. Biotech -40% YTD

www.stockcharts.com


7. A Good Reminder from Ben Carlson Blog

Some Things I’m Not Going to Regret in 20 Years by Ben Carlson  https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/05/some-things-im-not-going-to-regret-in-20-years/


8. Weed is not Recession/Inflation Proof? MJ Weed ETF Breaks Thru Covid Lows.


9. Facts on Nurses…

USA Facts Blog

https://usafacts.org/articles/who-are-the-nations-nurses/


10. Mark Cuban Says These are the Dumbest Things Entrepreneurs Do

Whatever you do, don’t do the first thing on this list. Or the second. Definitely not the third.

By Jason Fell July 23, 2019

By nature, entrepreneurs are intelligent, passionate, ambitious people. But all of those smarts and drive don’t always mean every business owner makes all the right decisions all of the time. Hopefully the blunders that are made aren’t big enough that the business fails.

We reached out to tech billionaire Mark Cuban to find out the things that entrepreneurs do that absolutely drive him bonkers. As a longtime investor on ABC’s hit TV show Shark Tank, Cuban has encountered his fair share of entrepreneurs who’ve made some serious missteps.

Whether you’re looking for investment money or quietly growing your business, Cuban says to avoid making the following mistakes at all costs.

For businesses in Ohio, there’s a team working behind the scenes to help you find success.

Not understanding business basics.

One thing that drives Cuban crazy is when entrepreneurs lack the basics. A prime example, he says, is when entrepreneurs “don’t know the difference between a product and a feature.” Before an entrepreneur begins looking for investment money, starts producing a product, even before research and development, they need to have this fundamental understanding.

In other words, if a competitor sells only blue shirts, and your shirts are blue and red, you’ve merely created a feature. Products or services solve problems and people want to purchase them. Features are characteristics that add value to products.

Related: Mark Cuban Shares the Best Advice He Ever Got

Successful companies are founded on products—not features, Cuban says.

Thinking competition equals validation.

Creating something from nothing is no easy feat. Convincing people that you’re providing a valuable service and to buy your products sometimes requires a lot more. Cuban says it’s a big mistake to think that a big competitor moving into your market validates your business.

What it does—or should do—is make smart entrepreneurs extremely uneasy. “It means you are in deep trouble unless you can out-innovate and outsell them,” Cuban says.

Pegging your success on one ‘star’ employee.

As the old saying goes: Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. The same goes for hiring and team building.

Too often, business owners believe that “their next hire will solve their biggest problem,” Cuban says. Hiring the best marketer in the industry doesn’t mean you’ll magically figure out how to sell your stuff and everyone will live happily ever after, he says.

If your star employee leaves or fails, then so does everyone else. Growing a successful business requires all hands on deck, meaning everyone on the team needs to be pulling their weight—together.

https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/337115

Topley’s Top 10 – May 11, 2022

1. 82% of Bonds in AGG Bond Index Trade Below Par

https://Iplresearch.com/2022/05/10/core-bonds-are-trading-at-deep-discounts-to-par/


2. Global Bonds 9 Straight Months of Losses

Vanguard International Bond ETF

www.stockcharts.com


3. Value Worst Year Ever Vs. Growth 2020….Now?

Irrelevant Investor-The outperformance of growth over value has been historic. For 14 out of 15 quarters from 2017 through 2020, value underperformed growth  That mentality reached a fever pitch in 2020 when growth stocks gained  37% while value stocks gained nothing. That was the worst year ever for value relative to growth, including 1999.


4. Gasoline & Diesel Prices Spike to New WTF Records

by Wolf Richter  –Predictions a few weeks ago of peak gasoline prices have been obviated by the inflationary mindset.  The average price of all grades of gasoline at the pump spiked to a record $4.33 per gallon on Monday, May 9, the third week in a row of increases, and was up 46% from a year ago, edging past the prior record of Monday, March 14 ($4.32), according to the US Energy Department’s EIA late Monday, based on its surveys of gas stations conducted during the day.

Gasoline price increases slap consumers directly in the face every time they get gas, and the classic ways of hiding price increases – such as making gallons smaller (shrinkflation) – would be illegal.

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/05/09/gasoline-diesel-prices-spike-to-new-wtf-records-but-dont-blame-crude-oil/


5. Small Cap -28% from highs…Closing right at 200day moving average on long-term chart

www.stockcharts.com


6. Bitcoin Washout Is Leaving Mom-and-Pop Buyers Holding the Bag…Short-Term Holders Average Price $47,500 and They are Selling.

Bloomberg

Vildana Hajric

(Bloomberg) — There’s a crypto refrain when prices crash precipitously like this: The selloff is washing out the short term-focused non-believers, known as weak hands, strengthening the industry in its wake.

It’s a glib way to think of all those who had joined the market as Bitcoin’s price rose to an all-time high at the end of last year — including institutions and small-time at-home investors, many of whom are deeply underwater on their investments now.

A measure called MVRV — which divides market value by the average purchase price — shows that short-term holders, on average, purchased Bitcoin at around $47,500. Another gauge, called the spent-output-profit ratio (SOPR), indicates those kind of investors are selling at a loss right now, according to an analysis by Genesis Global that uses Glassnode data.

And it’s not just those who have held the coin for a few months. More than half of traders who held crypto at the end of 2021 had gotten in that year, crypto-firm Grayscale Investments said at the time. Bitcoin’s average price in 2021 hovered around $47,300. It was near $32,000 on Monday in New York trading.

“Absolutely a ton of people are down,” said Stephane Ouellette, chief executive of FRNT Financial Inc. “Anyone who bought BTC for the first time in 2021 is down.”

Crypto fans have long argued that digital assets would hold up well during turbulent times. Many had said Bitcoin would prove to be a good inflation hedge thanks to its limited supply. It was also supposed to hold up better amid economic and geopolitical crises because it’s not tied to any government and has no centralized authority.

Instead, digital-asset investors are suffering through an environment that’s put a lot of risky assets through the wringer this year. The Federal Reserve and other central banks are raising interest rates to combat inflation just as the economic backdrop is softening. In this environment, Bitcoin, the largest digital asset by market value, has been cut in half since its November record. It’s seen five straight weeks of declines and just one positive day out of the last 11 sessions, including Monday’s.

To be sure, short-term investors aren’t all necessarily retail — a lot of institutional players also started to dabble in crypto in recent years. Still, the crypto craze had caught the eye of a lot of at-home traders who had been stuck at home during the pandemic and who deployed money into a market that went up in 2020 and 2021.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-washout-leaving-mom-pop-220000088.html


7. Chewy Another Covid Favorite Goes Full Roundtrip Back to 2020 Lows

www.stockcharts.com


8. Another Look at Personal Savings in U.S……Consumers Better Prepared for Downturn.

Capital Group

https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights.html


9. Firearm homicides hit highest level since 1994-Axios

Axios on facebook

Axios on twitter

Axios on linkedin

Axios on email

The firearm homicide rate in the U.S. reached its highest level since 1994 during the first year of the COVID pandemic, with significant racial and class disparities, according to a CDC report published Tuesday.

Driving the news: 2020 saw a historic rise in homicides in the U.S., and the upward trend continued into 2021.

  • About 79% of homicides and 53% of suicides in the U.S. involved firearms in 2020, according to the CDC report.

The big picture: The nation’s firearm homicide rate increased 34.6% from 2019 to 2020, with the largest increases occurring among Black men aged 10-44 years old and Native American or Alaska Native men aged 25-44 years old, per the new report.

  • “The firearm homicide rate among Black males aged 10–24 years was 20.6 times as high as the rate among white males of the same age in 2019, and this ratio increased to 21.6 in 2020,” the report says.
  • Larger increases were also observed at higher poverty levels, with racial and ethnic minorities more likely to live in communities with high surrounding poverty.
  • Counties with the highest poverty levels in 2020 experienced firearm homicide and suicide rates that were 4.5 and 1.3 times as high, respectively, as counties with the lowest poverty levels.
  • While overall firearm suicide rates remained “relatively unchanged” from 2019 to 2020, increasing only slightly, the highest increases were observed among Native Americans or Alaska Natives “at the two highest poverty levels,” the report noted.

What they’re saying: The CDC noted that firearm homicides and suicides are a “persistent and significant” public health concern in the U.S.

  • During the pandemic, “longstanding systemic inequities and structural racism have resulted in limited economic, housing, and educational opportunities associated with inequities in risk for violence and other health conditions among various racial and ethnic groups,” the report stated.

The bottom line: The study’s findings “underscore the importance of comprehensive strategies that can stop violence” by addressing underlying factors that contribute to homicide and suicide rates, including economic and social inequalities that drive racial disparities in health outcomes, per the report.

  • These could include policies that improve economic and household stability — such as child care subsidies and housing assistance — and community outreach programs.

https://www.axios.com/2022/05/10/firearm-homicide-high-1994


10. 5 Lessons On Being Wrong

James Clear Being wrong isn’t as bad as we make it out to be. I have made many mistakes and I have discovered five major lessons from my experiences.

1. Choices that seem poor in hindsight are an indication of growth, not self-worth or intelligence. When you look back on your choices from a year ago, you should always hope to find a few decisions that seem stupid now because that means you are growing. If you only live in the safety zone where you know you can’t mess up, then you’ll never unleash your true potential. If you know enough about something to make the optimal decision on the first try, then you’re not challenging yourself.

2. Given that your first choice is likely to be wrong, the best thing you can do is get started. The faster you learn from being wrong, the sooner you can discover what is right. For complex situations like relationships or entrepreneurship, you literally have to start before you feel ready because it’s not possible for anyone to be truly ready. The best way to learn is to start practicing.

3. Break down topics that are too big to master into smaller tasks that can be mastered. I can’t look at any business and tell you what to do. Entrepreneurship is too big of a topic. But, I can look at any website and tell you how to optimize it for building an email list because that topic is small enough for me to develop some level of expertise. If you want to get better at making accurate first choices, then play in a smaller arena. As Niels Bohr, the Nobel Prize-winning physicist, famously said, “An expert is a person who has made all the mistakes that can be made in a very narrow field.”

4. The time to trust your gut is when you have the knowledge or experience to back it up. You can trust yourself to make sharp decisions in areas where you already have proven expertise. For everything else, the only way to discover what works is to adopt a philosophy of experimentation.

5. The fact that failure will happen is not an excuse for expecting to fail. There is no reason to be depressed or give up simply because you will make a few wrong choices. Even more crucial, you must try your best every time because it is the effort and the practice that drives the learning process. They are essential, even if you fail. Realize that no single choice is destined to fail, but that occasional failure is the cost you have to pay if you want to be right. Expect to win and play like it from the outset.

Your first choice is rarely the optimal choice. Make it now, stop judging yourself, and start growing.

https://jamesclear.com/first-choice

Topley’s Top 10 – May 10, 2022

1. S&P Intraday 1% Moves Hitting Record Levels.

The S&P 500 Index SPX has had a rocky start to 2022, with weakness accentuated by a 3.56% decline Thursday that leaves the core market representative at about a 13% year-to-date drawdown. This weakness has come with a substantial increase in the daily volatility, as we examine through our SPX Volatility Study. This study looks at the number of days where the S&P 500 sees an intraday move exceeding 1% in value. There have been 45 days so far this year where such a move has occurred, with 32 such days coming in the first quarter and another 13 occurring in April and May. The number of 1% down days has exceeded the count of 1% up days at 26 to 19. The last time we saw the full calendar year count of extreme daily losses be higher than extreme daily gains was in 2008. While we are only a little over four months into the year, the core index has seen an extreme daily move in 52% of the trading days (through 5/5), which is the second-highest annual percentage of extreme days since 1987. The only year to show more extreme days was 2008 at 53%, with a high percentage of 50% seen in 2002. There is still plenty of time for this reading to come down, but the current pace shows the historic levels of daily volatility the core market has experienced over the past few months.

www.dorseywright.com


2. S&P Falls for 5 Consecutive Weeks for the First Time Since 2011

Jim Reid Deutsche Bank- A big theme of ours over the last year is that this is likely to be a very different cycle, (and probably decade) to the last one as many supercycle structural forces reverse. If correct, then many themes will be different going forward to what we’ve been accustomed to. One such theme is the relentless march of US equities. The last decade was noticeable for record long periods without a correction, a don’t fight the Fed mentality and a buy the dip narrative.

Today’s CoTD shows that the S&P 500 has now fallen for five successive weeks for the first time since June 2011. Indeed as the graph shows, this now ends the longest run without such an event since weekly data begins in 1928. In the 83 years between 1928 and 2011 we had 61 runs of five or more weekly declines in a row, so one every year and a third on average even if a number were concentrated together.

So the last decade has very much been the exception rather than the norm.


3. That was Fast…..Software Stock Valuations Correct to Historical Average.

Chart 1 – Overall Software EV/NTM Revenue Multiples, 2015-2022

Software multiples are down 12% this wk. and trade at 7.2x NTM rev. vs. the historical avg. at 8x. Despite the recent downdraft, we believe there is still downside to multiples as fundamentals could weaken into a recessionary environment and past downdrafts have pushed avg. multiples to ~5x. We highlight 5 key risks: 1) Higher Multiple Names; 2) Exposure to Interest Rates; 3) Exposure to Europe; 4) Products with High ASP; and 5) Deferred Software.

Dan Stratemeier-Managing -DirectorEquities, Event Driven Strategies-Jefferies LLC


4. Real Interest Rates vs. Tech….Perfect Inverse Relationship

Dave Lutz Jones Trading–“Real Rates” keep ripping higher and squashing Tech.  Any tech bid without a reversal in USGGT10Y is likely to be met with sellers.


5. QQQ -25%+ High to Low…..Gives Back All of 2021 Gains.

www.stockcharts.com


6. VIX-Volatility Index has not Broken Out to Upside Yet.

2020 Spike Hit 75

www.stockcharts.com


7. Visual of LNG Export Growth


8. The Oil Market Never Changes…Prices Go Up….Start Drilling…..Permits Hit Record Levels.

The Daily Shot Blog Energy: The number of newly approved drilling permits has increased to record high levels, which typically leads production by six-to-twelve months.

Source: Longview Economics

https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-may-6th-2022/


9. 2021 Breakdown by Age of Homebuyers.

Will The Housing Market Crash? Experts Give 5-Year Predictions.–Natalie Campisi https://www.forbes.com/advisor/mortgages/will-housing-market-crash/


10. This Is the Sign of a Great Thinker, According to Jeff Bezos and Adam Grant

Great thinkers don’t just harbor doubt. They embrace uncertainty–and how little they really know.

BY JEFF HADEN, CONTRIBUTING EDITOR, INC.@JEFF_HADEN

The smartest person I’ve known didn’t, on the surface, appear to be that smart.

She used qualifiers like “I think.” “Seems.” “Suggests.” “Indicates.”

When asked for her opinion she could appear unsure, frequently asking for feedback and shifting the conversation to what other people thought.

To make perception matters worse, she was quick to change her positions. New facts? New decisions. New situations? New strategies. New agendas? New tactics. She changed her mind — a lot.

In time, I realized those behaviors masked a staggering intellect. She wasn’t just “book smart” — although she definitely was — but smart smart. Insightful. Perceptive. Clever. Smart about things. Smart about people.

In time, I realized those behaviors were the sign of a staggering intellect.

The rarely mentioned flip side of the Dunning-Kruger effect, a type of cognitive bias described by social psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger in which people believe they’re smarter and more skilled than they actually are, is that people with high ability tend to underestimate how good they are.

High-ability individuals tend to underrate their relative competence, and at the same time assume that tasks that are easy for them are just as easy for other people. The smarter you are, the less you think you know — because you realize just how much there is to actually know.

That didn’t mean she suffered from imposter syndrome, the inner belief that she was inadequate and mediocre despite evidence that showed she was highly skilled and extremely successful.

As Adam Grant writes in Think Again:

Great thinkers don’t harbor doubts because they’re impostors. They maintain doubts because they know we’re all partially blind and they’re committed to improving their sight. They don’t boast about how much they know; the marvel at how little they understand. They’re aware that each answer raises new questions, and the quest for knowledge is never finished. The mark of lifelong learners is recognizing that they can learn something from everyone they meet.

That didn’t mean she was indecisive or unsure, even though she often changed her mind. 

According to Jeff Bezos:

The smartest people are constantly revising their understanding, reconsidering a problem they thought they’d already solved. They’re open to new points of view, new information, new ideas, contradictions, and challenges to their own way of thinking.

To Bezos, consistency of thought isn’t a positive trait. Bezos encourages those around him to seek new data, new analyses, new perspectives — to have what Stanford professor Bob Sutton calls “strong opinions, which are weakly held.”

Why?

Because wisdom isn’t found in certainty. Wisdom is knowing that while you might know a lot, there’s also a lot you don’t know.

Wisdom is trying to find out what is right rather than trying to be right.

Wisdom is realizing when you’re wrong, and backing down graciously.

Great thinkers aren’t afraid to be wrong. Great thinkers aren’t afraid to admit they don’t have all the answers. Great thinkers aren’t afraid to say “I think” instead of “I know.”

As Grant writes, “Arrogance leaves us blind to our weaknesses. Humility is a reflective lens: it helps us see them clearly. Confident humility is a corrective lens: it enables us to overcome those weaknesses.”

Humility enables us to embrace the fact that we already know what we know.

What we don’t know is what other people know.

At least not yet

https://www.inc.com/jeff-haden/this-is-sign-of-a-great-thinker-according-to-jeff-bezos-adam-grant.html?cid=sf01003

Topley’s Top 10 – May 09, 2022

1. 10 Year Treasury Yield Approaching Decade Highs

MacroTrends-10 Year Chart of 10 Year Treasury Yield

https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart


2. IPO ETF Heading for Covid Lows

IPO -60%…back to mid-2020 levels

www.stockcharts.com


3. Small Cap Value -7.6%. YTD vs. Small Cap Growth -23%

www.yahoofinance.com


4. Another Theme ETF Breaking Down….Robotics ETF -30%….Breaks Up Trend Line Going Back to 2015

See break of blue uptrend line going back 7 years

www.stockcharts.com


5. One-Year Returns…Bitcoin -41% vs. U.S. Dollar +14% vs. GOLD +2%

www.yahoofinance.com


6. Ray Dalio Bubble Gauge Down Substantially from Highs

Ray Dalio-The latest readings from the “bubble indicator.”

As you know, I like to convert my intuitive thinking into indicators which I write down as decision rules (principles) that can be back-tested and automated to put together with other principles and bets created the same way to make up a portfolio of alpha bets. I have one of these for bubbles. Having been through many bubbles over my 50+ years of investing, about 10 years ago I described what in my mind makes a bubble and use that to identify them in markets—all markets, not just stocks.

I define a bubble market as one that has a combination of the following in high degrees:

  1. High prices relative to traditional measures of value (e.g., by taking the present value of their cash flows for the duration of the asset and comparing it with their interest rates).
  2. Unsustainable conditions (e.g., extrapolating past revenue and earnings growth rates late in the cycle when capacity limits mean that that growth can’t be sustained).
  3. Many new and naïve buyers who were attracted in because the market has gone up a lot so it’s perceived as a hot market.
  4. Broad bullish sentiment.
  5. A high percentage of purchases being financed by debt.
  6. A lot of forward and speculative purchases made to bet on price gains (e.g., inventories that are more than needed, contracted forward purchases, etc.).

The chart below shows the bubble gauge for the average of the most bubbly companies as defined in 2020. Readings for those companies are meaningfully down.

The charts below show the performance of a basket of emerging tech bubble stocks (what we call the “bubble slice”) versus the S&P 500. Prices have meaningfully declined and have given up most of their post-COVID gains.

The Popping of the Bubble Stocks: An Update

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/popping-bubble-stocks-update-ray-dalio/


7. Just 35% of S&P 500 Stocks and 20% of Nasdaq Trading Above 200day Moving Average

WSJ

Best Read of Weekend…..WSJ-Once-popular trades fall out of favor as investors brace for further volatility

https://www.wsj.com/articles/markets-2022-slide-has-already-changed-investor-behavior-11652002203?mod=hp_lead_pos2


8. It’s Not 1999….See P/E Multiple Comparison

Seth Golden https://twitter.com/SethCL


9. No Recession at Kentucky Derby….Record Wagering.

Zerohedge-Wagering from all-sources on the Kentucky Derby Day program totaled $273.8 million, a 17% increase over 2021 and up 9% from the previous record in 2019 of $250.9 million. Wagering from all-sources on the Kentucky Derby race totaled $179.0 million, up 15% over 2021 and up 8% from the previous record of $165.5 million set in 2019. This year’s wagering record includes $8.3 million of handle wagered in Japan. -CDI

 

Here are the Kentucky Derby payouts:

21 – Rich Strike WIN: $163.60 PLACE: $74.20 SHOW: $29.40

3 – Epicenter PLACE: $7.40 SHOW: $5.20

10 – Zandon SHOW: $5.60

$2.00 Exacta 21-3 $4,101.20

$1.00 Trifecta 21-3-10 $14,870.70

$1.00 Superfecta 21-3-10-13 $321,500.10

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/kentucky-derby-day-wagering-hits-record-high-underdog-rich-strike-wins


10. The Top 5 Strengths People Wish They Had…

Psychology Today

Ryan M. Niemiec Psy.D.

Here are the top five strengths, starting with the fifth highest. Participants chose out of 24 universal strengths found across human beings (they could also choose “none of the above”).

5: Forgiveness

People wish they could be more forgiving. This makes perfect sense. The mental burden of holding onto resentment, anger, and hurt feelings can be overwhelming. Science informs us that forgiveness takes time. It is rarely “one and done.” This means we need to be patient with our forgiveness. We need to make it a practice of letting go, over and over.

·  Science-based strategy from my Character Strengths Interventions book:

o After someone offends you, think about how the offender is a complex human being who needs to experience positive growth and transformation, rather than seeing them as “all bad.”

·  After someone offends you, think about how the offender is a complex human being who needs to experience positive growth and transformation, rather than seeing them as “all bad.”

4: Creativity

People want to be more creative. They want to come up with more ideas. Their minds are often obstacles: “What will people think of what I created?” “What if I fail?” “How much will I lose?” I like that this strength was nominated so high because it reminds us that there is great value for our mental well-being if we can open ourselves to new ways of doing things, think of new solutions to our problems, and take novel action.

·  Science-based strategy from my Character Strengths Interventions book:

o Develop divergent thinking. This means that when you have a problem, come up with multiple alternate solutions instead of searching for one “correct” solution. After you name a problem, brainstorm a list of ideas for potential solutions.

·  Develop divergent thinking. This means that when you have a problem, come up with multiple alternate solutions instead of searching for one “correct” solution. After you name a problem, brainstorm a list of ideas for potential solutions.

3: Perseverance

People wish they did not give up so easily. The truth is – it is challenging to be perseverant. When we are trying to reach a goal, life happens: we feel mental fatigue, we feel physical fatigue, we have negative judgments, people trying to stop us, and daily life getting in the way. But, perseverance can overcome those obstacles. It is that inner voice that says, “keep going….keep swimming…don’t give up.” 

·  Science-based strategy from my Character Strengths Interventions book:

o As you work on a project, pay attention to how you have put forth good focus, effort, and energy with the task/project. Reward yourself when you “try your best,” instead of what most people do, which is to reward yourself when the goal is reached.

·  As you work on a project, pay attention to how you have put forth good focus, effort, and energy with the task/project. Reward yourself when you “try your best,” instead of what most people do, which is to reward yourself when the goal is reached.

2: Bravery

People want to be braver. I hear this and see this – almost constantly, in my work as I interact with people across the globe. It is challenging to be brave enough to move out of one’s comfort zone, challenge the system or the status quo, speak an unpopular opinion, and face your fears. No one said bravery is easy. But we say that it is a pathway to being more authentic and helping your neighbor.

article continues after advertisement

·  Science-based strategy from my Character Strengths Interventions book:

o As you consider using your bravery strength, focus on the outcome of the courageous act. For example, think of the person you would be helping or remind yourself of the goodness of the action you’d be taking.

·  As you consider using your bravery strength, focus on the outcome of the courageous act. For example, think of the person you would be helping or remind yourself of the goodness of the action you’d be taking.

1: Self-Regulation

The most significant percentage of people said the main character strength they wished they had more of to help with their mental health is self-regulation. People want more self-control. This takes many forms – to have more control of your feelings, impulses, bad habits, and words.

People want more discipline in their life, but vices, old habits, and problem behaviors are ingrained, amorphous, hidden, confusing, and often victorious.

·  Science-based strategy from my Character Strengths Interventions book:

o Start a daily self-monitoring log, using your smart-device or computer. Keep track of how you are feeling mentally each day. Track your food and drink intake, your activities, and the people you interact with. Make note of patterns that show up before you feel a certain way.

·  Start a daily self-monitoring log, using your smart-device or computer. Keep track of how you are feeling mentally each day. Track your food and drink intake, your activities, and the people you interact with. Make note of patterns that show up before you feel a certain way.

These findings come from new research I conducted in preparation for a scientific paper I’ll be publishing later this year. I wanted you to have a sneak peek at a few of the many fascinating findings. Lots more to come!

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/what-matters-most/202205/5-surprising-mental-health-strengths-people-wish

·  Science-based strategy from my Character Strengths Interventions book:

o After someone offends you, think about how the offender is a complex human being who needs to experience positive growth and transformation, rather than seeing them as “all bad.”

·  After someone offends you, think about how the offender is a complex human being who needs to experience positive growth and transformation, rather than seeing them as “all bad.”

4: Creativity

People want to be more creative. They want to come up with more ideas. Their minds are often obstacles: “What will people think of what I created?” “What if I fail?” “How much will I lose?” I like that this strength was nominated so high because it reminds us that there is great value for our mental well-being if we can open ourselves to new ways of doing things, think of new solutions to our problems, and take novel action.

article continues after advertisement

·  Science-based strategy from my Character Strengths Interventions book:

o Develop divergent thinking. This means that when you have a problem, come up with multiple alternate solutions instead of searching for one “correct” solution. After you name a problem, brainstorm a list of ideas for potential solutions.

·  Develop divergent thinking. This means that when you have a problem, come up with multiple alternate solutions instead of searching for one “correct” solution. After you name a problem, brainstorm a list of ideas for potential solutions.

3: Perseverance

People wish they did not give up so easily. The truth is – it is challenging to be perseverant. When we are trying to reach a goal, life happens: we feel mental fatigue, we feel physical fatigue, we have negative judgments, people trying to stop us, and daily life getting in the way. But, perseverance can overcome those obstacles. It is that inner voice that says, “keep going….keep swimming…don’t give up.” 

·  Science-based strategy from my Character Strengths Interventions book:

o As you work on a project, pay attention to how you have put forth good focus, effort, and energy with the task/project. Reward yourself when you “try your best,” instead of what most people do, which is to reward yourself when the goal is reached.

·  As you work on a project, pay attention to how you have put forth good focus, effort, and energy with the task/project. Reward yourself when you “try your best,” instead of what most people do, which is to reward yourself when the goal is reached.

2: Bravery

People want to be braver. I hear this and see this – almost constantly, in my work as I interact with people across the globe. It is challenging to be brave enough to move out of one’s comfort zone, challenge the system or the status quo, speak an unpopular opinion, and face your fears. No one said bravery is easy. But we say that it is a pathway to being more authentic and helping your neighbor.

article continues after advertisement

·  Science-based strategy from my Character Strengths Interventions book:

o As you consider using your bravery strength, focus on the outcome of the courageous act. For example, think of the person you would be helping or remind yourself of the goodness of the action you’d be taking.

·  As you consider using your bravery strength, focus on the outcome of the courageous act. For example, think of the person you would be helping or remind yourself of the goodness of the action you’d be taking.

1: Self-Regulation

The most significant percentage of people said the main character strength they wished they had more of to help with their mental health is self-regulation. People want more self-control. This takes many forms – to have more control of your feelings, impulses, bad habits, and words.

People want more discipline in their life, but vices, old habits, and problem behaviors are ingrained, amorphous, hidden, confusing, and often victorious.

·  Science-based strategy from my Character Strengths Interventions book:

o Start a daily self-monitoring log, using your smart-device or computer. Keep track of how you are feeling mentally each day. Track your food and drink intake, your activities, and the people you interact with. Make note of patterns that show up before you feel a certain way.

·  Start a daily self-monitoring log, using your smart-device or computer. Keep track of how you are feeling mentally each day. Track your food and drink intake, your activities, and the people you interact with. Make note of patterns that show up before you feel a certain way.

These findings come from new research I conducted in preparation for a scientific paper I’ll be publishing later this year. I wanted you to have a sneak peek at a few of the many fascinating findings. Lots more to come!

Topley’s Top 10 – May 06, 2022

1. 2022 Worst Starts Ever History

https://lplresearch.com/


2. Bond Market Massively Oversold-Bespoke Investment Group

The sell-off in bond prices over the last six months has been extreme to say the least.  There are a number of ways we could highlight the carnage for bond investors, but one way is to look at how far bond indices are trading below their 200-day moving averages.  As shown below, the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Market Total Return index is currently 8.5% below its 200-day moving average.

Going back to 1988 when daily price data begins, the 200-DMA spread is currently 2x more negative than any prior extreme oversold reading.  Click here to learn more about Bespoke’s premium financial markets research.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/bond-market-massively-oversold


3. 1999 Median Price to Sales Nasdaq 21.9x vs. 11.6x 2022

Invesco

https://www.invesco.com/us/en/insights/topic/featured-insights.html


4. Copper Pulled Back and Closed Below 200day Moving Average but Broader Commodities Index Breaking Out.

JJC-Copper closes below 200day moving average

CRB-Broad Commodities Index about to break out

www.stockcharts.com


5. Gold to Copper Ratio

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright-As some may know, a rising copper-gold ratio typically signals expectations for global economic health are on the rise and vice versa. Over the last year, the copper-gold ratio has consolidated in a range and the ratio is currently at the bottom of this range. The copper-gold ratio and the 10YR Treasury Yield have had a strong correlation over the years. After getting disconnected from their usual relationship, yields have rallied strongly higher since the end of 2021 and are now back at relatively similar levels to the copper-gold ratio. Now that yields have risen back to normalized levels relative to the copper-gold ratio, it’s a bit more difficult to have a strong indication one way or the other of how the assets involved will go from here. This has been one of the worst starts to the year for bonds and there is clear momentum behind rising yields both gold and copper have more mixed technical pictures, but each’s ETF still has acceptable fund scores. 10YR Treasury Yields have also had trouble breaking north of 3% after failing in both 2013 and 2018, so that is another variable to keep in mind. Like 10YR yields, the copper-gold ratio itself has also struggled to breach above its current levels, so these two data points can be seen as possible tailwinds for gold in the future. However, yields would need to see weakening moving forward and, as mentioned earlier, we have seen no signs of this happening yet.

www.dorseywright.com


6. Natural Gas 12month Fund +100% YTD


7. Software Index Charts

Software ETF Barely Holding Previous YTD lows

Software Longer-Term Weekly Chart holding above 200 day moving average

www.stockcharts.com


8. You Though UBER was a Drive Sharing Company or Hedge Fund?

How Uber Lost $5.5 billion on 4 SPAC & IPO Stocks: Grab, Didi, Aurora, Zomato. How it Got There, How They Imploded It’s funny, almost.By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

This morning, Uber reported a net loss of $5.93 billion for Q1, and its shares initially tanked 11%, no biggie compared to the 32% dive that Lyft shares are currently undergoing following its earnings report and outlook last night.

In its earnings report, Uber disclosed $5.5 billion in losses on its stakes in four companies that recently went public via SPAC or IPO, and whose shares have gotten outright thackamuffled. These are the losses Uber reported today on its holdings of these four now infamous stocks that have been beautifying my column, Imploded Stocks:

  • Grab: $1.9 billion loss (biggest SPAC deal ever)
  • Aurora Innovation: $1.7 billion loss
  • Didi: $1.4 billion loss (biggest listing mess ever)
  • Zomato: $462 million loss.

Read full story on how uber ended up a bad hedge fund manager https://wolfstreet.com/2022/05/04/uber-lost-5-5-billion-on-four-spac-ipo-stocks-grab-didi-aurora-zomato-how-it-ended-up-with-them-and-how-they-imploded/

Uber chart breaks thru previous lows to downside

www.stockcharts.com


9. Property Taxes on U.S. Homes Rise $328B

MSN News

Michele Lerner – 6h ago

Unsurprisingly, the spike in home values meant that property tax collections increased in 2021, compared with 2020, according to information compiled and analyzed by Attom, a real estate data analysis firm. Attom’s researchers reviewed property tax data for nearly 87 million homes in the United States and found that $328 billion was levied, up 1.6 percent from the $323 billion in 2020. Despite the price increases on homes in 2021, this was the smallest rise in property tax bills over the past years and down from the 5.4 percent increase between 2019 and 2020.

The discrepancy between the home price increase of 16 percent in 2021 from 2020 and the much smaller increase in property tax bills is likely a reflection of the lag in tax assessments, according to Rick Sharga, executive vice president of market intelligence at Attom. In other words, homeowners may see their property taxes rise higher in 2022.

The average tax bill on single-family homes in the United States increased at the smallest rate in the past five years, up 1.8 percent from $3,719 in 2020 to $3,785 in 2021. The effective tax rate, which refers to the average annual property tax expressed as a percentage of the average estimated market value of homes, was 0.9 percent in 2021, down from 1.1 percent in 2020. Because home values rose much more quickly than tax rates, the effective tax rate declined.

Where property taxes are highest

In New Jersey, the average single-family home tax was $9,476 in 2021, the highest in the nation. Other states among the top five highest include Connecticut ($7,464), Massachusetts ($6,777), New Hampshire ($6,698) and New York ($6,617).

Where property taxes are lowest

The state with the smallest average tax bill was West Virginia at $901 in 2021. Other states among the five with the lowest property tax bills included Alabama ($905), Arkansas ($1,195), Mississippi ($1,243) and Louisiana at $1,248.

Most expensive homes sold in the D.C. area in 2021

D.C.-area property taxes

In counties near Washington, D.C., the average property tax bill was $9,526 in Arlington, Va.; $8,942 in Fairfax County, Va.; $6,837 in Montgomery County, Md.; $6,243 in Washington, D.C. and $4,741 in Prince George’s County, Md.

The effective tax rate in those areas range from a high of 1.01 percent in Prince George’s County to 0.93 percent in Fairfax County, 0.85 percent in Arlington County, 0.79 percent in Montgomery County and 0.55 percent in D.C.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/property-taxes-on-us-homes-rose-to-24328-billion-in-2021-report-finds/ar-AAWWrHz


10. Leaders Must Be Readers-The Daily Stoic

A leader will be forced into countless situations that they have never been in before. Trying, painful, stressful, baffling dilemmas and difficulties unlike any they have known. Nothing could have prepared Kennedy for the Cuban Missile Crisis, but it’s a good thing he had read B. H. Liddell Hart a few years before—it was Hart’s wisdom that helped Kennedy rationally and calmly deal with that unprecedented moment. Nothing could have prepared Churchill for the outbreak of WWII… except of course, the decades he had spent as a historian, which intimately acquainted him with the strategic insights and moral clarity required to bravely fight on.

“One common characteristic of virtually all great leaders I have known is that they have been great readers,” Richard Nixon would write later in life. “Reading not only enlarges and challenges the mind; it engages and exercises the brain. Today’s youth who sits mesmerized by a television screen is not going to be tomorrow’s leader. Television watching is passive. Reading is active.”

Great advice… that a reader of history also knows that Nixon did not quite live up to. In all, Nixon watched over 500 movies while in office in less than 6 years. Might he have been better served by engaging and exercising his brain? Might he have been better off if he’d had more of his assumptions challenged and fewer of his paranoid delusions indulged?

Marcus Aurelius does not become Marcus Aurelius without having read Epictetus at his teacher Rusticus’s urging. Seneca would not have been Seneca without Attalus introducing him to the works of the Stoics, but equally, he would not have been Seneca without his diligent reading of Epicurus, which actively challenged his mind and his assumptions. How did he bravely face death at the hands of Nero’s goons? He was aided by his reading of Cato’s life, just as Cato faced his death by reading Socrates’.

A leader must be a reader. We must learn from the experiences of others. We must be challenged. We must exercise our brains. We must prepare ourselves for the things we’ll only be able to experience once, by learning from the experiences of others.

It’s not just the best way, it’s the only way.

https://dailystoic.com/

Topley’s Top 10 – May 03, 2022

1. Since 1976…First Time Ever Both Stocks and Bonds -10%

@Charlie Bilello-With data going back to 1976, this is the first time ever that both stocks and bonds are in a >10% drawdown at the same time. The S&P 500 is in a 13% drawdown while bonds are 11% below their 2020 high. (note: using monthly total return data)


2. 50/50 Portfolio Drawdown Almost Equal to 2008

https://twitter.com/TeddyVallee


3. Since 2000 S&P Only Outperformed 60/40 by 60 Basis Points….Since 2010 S&P has Outperformed 60/40 by 120%

Since The beginning of 2010, the DWA 60/40 Bond Index (DWA.TR) has underperformed the total return of the S&P 500 (TR.SPXX by more than 120% or 4% per year on an annualized basis (through 4/28). However, from the beginning of 2000, there’s a much smaller spread – with the S&P leading the 60/40 portfolio by a little under 60 basis points on an annualized basis – the point being that the picture can change a lot depending on the time periods. www,dorseywright.com

Blackrock 60/40

www.stockcharts.com


4. Money Market Funds See Biggest Inflows Since Covid.

Money Market Inflows Logged a massive +$60B inflows last week, which was the largest weekly inflow since Covid 2020 (and typically another fear gauge).

From Zerohedge Buyback Blackout Period Is Over, And 10 More Reasons Why Goldman Calls The End Of The Market Carnage | ZeroHedge


5. What Happens After Historic Bad Months?

Bespoke Investment Group-Historic End to a Down Month-It was a rough finish to the month of April. Not only did the S&P 500 (SPY) finish the month with an 8.78% decline month to date, the biggest one-month decline since March 2020, but the last trading day of the month was one for the record books. Since SPY began trading in 1993, the only bigger drop on the final trading day of the month was in August 1998. Back then it was a much larger 7.13% decline.

In the table below, we show all months since 1993 that SPY declined at least 2% on the last trading day of a month. Behind April, the next worst final day of a month and the only other month with an over 3% decline was September 1998, but back then, SPY had still managed to finish up MTD.  Finishing up MTD has been the exception rather than the rule of these occurrences, though, as November 1998 and October 2011 were the only other times that SPY fell over 2% on the last trading day of the month but still finished with a MTD gain.

As for where the S&P 500 has typically gone from there, the first trading day of the new month has only seen a move higher 46% of the time as the index has averaged a 30 bps decline. For the full month, though, performance is generally more positive with an average gain of 2.75% and positive returns almost 70% of the time.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/research/think-big-blog/


6. Yuan to U.S. Dollar Chart

Judging by this chart Yuan is not a candidate to overcome dollar as reserve currency

www.stockcharts.com


7. NYSE Defense Index Falling Back Toward Pre-Ukraine Invasion Levels.

www.stockcharts.com


8. Employment Cost Index Well Above Forecasts.

The United States: The employment cost index came in well above forecasts, spooking the markets. The concern has been a wage-price spiral.

Source: Daily Shot

 https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-may-2nd-2022/


9. Americans Opinion on Grades and Standardized Test Scores-Pew Research

Grades and test scores seen as top factors for college admissions in U.S. | Pew Research Center


10. Study finds seven hours of sleep to be optimal from middle-age onwards

By Nick Lavars

VIEW 1 IMAGES

We know sleep to be an essential ingredient for a healthy brain, but scientists continue to explore what a good night’s rest looks like at different stages of life, and how it can impact on our vulnerability to cognitive decline. A wide-ranging new study involving almost half a million subjects has provided compelling new insights, suggesting seven hours of sleep per night to be best for brain health during middle and old age.

While good sleeping habits are known to be beneficial for everything from reducing our risk of cancer and heart failure to maintaining a healthy body weight, recently we’ve seen scientists shine a light on its relationship with Alzheimer’s and dementia.This includes studies finding an increased risk through disruptions to key sleep phases, short sleep durations and excessive daytime napping. On the more positive side of things, scientists have identified genes in “elite sleepers” that may lead to treatments for these types of neurodegenerative diseases.

This new research, carried out by scientists at the University of Cambridge and China’s Fudan University, involved the analysis of almost 500,000 adults between the ages of 38 and 73. This included survey data on sleeping patterns, mental health and wellbeing, along with cognitive testing. Brain imaging and genetic data was available for almost 40,000 subjects.

This enabled the scientists to tease out new insights around sleeping habits in middle and old age, and brain health. Building on findings from one 2018 study, the analysis found that both too little and too much sleep had negative effects, affecting visual attention, memory, problem-solving and processing speed. This also increased symptoms of depression, anxiety and worse overall wellbeing.

Seven hours of sleep was the amount the scientists concluded to be optimal for brain health, saying that sleeping too much or too little may be a risk factor for age-related cognitive decline. The findings also add further weight to an idea we saw explored through an interesting 2020 study that linked disturbances to slow-wave “deep” sleep and Alzheimer’s.

Previous research in animals and humans has shown that this type of fragmented sleep can can increase the accumulation of toxic proteins associated with Alzheimer’s disease. Further, slow-wave deep sleep is an important brain function that clears away waste products and toxic proteins. That 2020 research suggested that fragmented sleep could be an effective way to predict those at risk of developing neurodegenerative disease.

“Getting a good night’s sleep is important at all stages of life, but particularly as we age,” said Professor Barbara Sahakian from the University of Cambridge. “Finding ways to improve sleep for older people could be crucial to helping them maintain good mental health and wellbeing and avoiding cognitive decline, particularly for patients with psychiatric disorders and dementias.”

The research was published in the journal Nature Aging. 

Source: University of Cambridge  https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/study-seven-hours-sleep-optimal-middle-age/

Found at Abnormal Returns www.abnormalreturns.com

Topley’s Top 10 – May 02, 2022

1. In 35 Years…Investor Sentiment has Only Gotten this Low 5 Other Times.

@MacroCharts

-Four during the 1990 Recession trough / Inflation peak.

-One at the exact bottom in March 2009.”

From Real Vision Newsletter  https://www.realvision.com/blog/


2. Percentage of Stocks Beating the S&P Hitting 2000 Bubble Low Levels.

From Kailash Concepts

https://twitter.com/KailashConcepts


3. Commodities Chart Forming a Technical Triangle….Increased Probability of Violent Break One Way or the Other.

www.stockcharts.com


4. Semiconductors ETF -27% Correction from Highs

www.stockcharts.com


5. Covid Superstar Stock Dominos Pizza -40% Correction from Highs

DPZ Closes below its 200 day moving average on long-term weekly chart

www.stockcharts.com


6. FAANG stocks just reported 0% real revenue growth for the first time in 20 years

Otavio (Tavi) Costa

@TaviCosta

https://twitter.com/TaviCosta


7. Jet Fuel Prices +140% Year Over Year

IATA Jet Fuel Monitor

https://www.iata.org/en/publications/economics/fuel-monitor/


8. Reversion to the Mean in Real World Retail?

Real world retail-Few companies benefited from the pandemic as much as Amazon. Online sales soared and many wondered whether brick and mortar retail would recover.  Well, it has.For a company that’s been used to growing at 20%, 30% or even 40% over the last few years, yesterday’s update was something of a shock: Amazon’s e-commerce sales dropped by 3% and the company reported its first loss for 7 years.

Evidence from the UK

If you happen to have a keen eye on UK retail sales (who doesn’t?) you might have seen this phenomenon coming. The UK has monthly data on internet sales as a % of total retail — and it’s showed an interesting trend recently.

After years of gently trending higher, online sales shot to more than 35% of total UK retail sales during the pandemic, where many experts expected them to stay, as we adopted new habits permanently.

But in recent months online sales have pulled back. In fact, if you draw the trend line on the data pre-pandemic then online sales are not far off where they might have ended up anyway, had the pandemic never happened in a glorious alternative timeline. The quarterly data in the US shows a similar trend. Maybe we don’t want to buy everything online after all.

www.chartr.com


9. The U.S. Decreased Nuclear Warheads by 88% Since 1967

USAfACTS.ORG

How many nuclear weapons does the US have? – USAFacts


10. Ray Dalio-Taking Criticism Well

https://twitter.com/RayDalio

Topley’s Top 10 – April 29, 2022

1. ARKK Fund -50% YTD…But $900m in Inflows???

Ben Johnson, CFA

@MstarETFUS

I’m still trying to wrap my mind around the fact that $ARKK is down ~50% YTD but has pulled in $908 million in net new money.

https://twitter.com/MsartETFUS


2. Amazon Operating Margin by Segment-Zerohedge Chart

North American and Europe Negative


3. 200day Moving Average on AMZN Long-Term Weekly Chart $2530

www.stockcharts.com


4. FANMAG Now Even with the S&P for Last 5 Years

Josh Brown Blog Reformed Broker

https://www.linkedin.com/in/joshua-brown-96a5569b/


5. Heavy Trucks Sales -23%

https://www.linkedin.com/in/otavio-tavi-costa-76368628/


6. CNBC-Elon Musk will be the most indebted CEO in America if the Twitter deal goes through

Robert Frank@ROBTFRANK

KEY POINTS

·         Two-thirds of Elon Musk’s financing for the $44 billion deal to take Twitter private will have to come out of his own pocket. He has a net worth of about $250 billion.

·         Yet because much of his wealth is tied up in Tesla stock, Musk will have to sell millions of his shares and pledge millions more to raise the necessary cash.

·         According to research firm Audit Analytics, Musk has more than $90 billion of shares pledged for loans.

·         That makes him the largest stock-debtor in dollar terms among executives and directors, far surpassing second-ranked Larry Ellison, according to ISS Corporate Solutions.

The world’s richest person could soon add another title to his name – America’s most leveraged CEO.

Two-thirds of Elon Musk’s financing for the $44 billion deal to take Twitter private will have to come out of his own pocket. That pocket is deep. He has a net worth of about $250 billion.

Yet because his wealth is tied up in Tesla stock, along with equity in his SpaceX and The Boring Co., Musk will have to sell millions of his shares and pledge millions more to raise the necessary cash.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/28/elon-musk-will-be-most-indebted-ceo-in-america-if-twitter-deal-closes.html

Tesla closes below 200 day moving average for 3rd time since February


7. Another Covid Superstar Stock Close to Full Round Trip….CVNA-Carvana.

www.stockcharts.com


8. Metaverse ETFs Up to Six

ETF.com Overview Of Metaverse Themed ETFs In The US –Aniket Ullal

There are currently six ETFs that provide exposure to the Metaverse theme. There is also an ETF that focuses on console gaming (ETMG Video Game Tech ETF) as well as multiple decentralized finance (DeFi)- and blockchain-focused ETFs. Since those are more specialized or have a slightly different investment objective than the metaverse-themed ETFs, they have been excluded from this analysis.

The first metaverse ETF (METV) in the U.S. launched in mid-2021. Since then, five other similarly themed ETFs have launched in the U.S. They range in expense ratio from 0.39% to 0.75%. Table 1 summarizes these six metaverse-themed ETFs:

https://www.etf.com/sections/blog/metaverse-etfs-rapidly-growing-universe


9. Loan to Value in Residential Housing is at Record Lows….The Opposite of 2008 Crisis

Looking towards the housing market, the current loan-to-value ratio is relatively low, unlike during the subprime housing crisis.

Source: BCA Research

The Daily Shot Blog https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-april-28th-2022/


10. 13 Things the Most Confident People Don’t Do

Barbara Markway Ph.D.

Self-confident people know what they value and what they want. They share common habits and thought patterns that help them achieve their goals. Here are 13 things self-confident people don’t do, so you can be one of them.

1. They don’t believe they are worth less than others.

One of the fundamental beliefs underlying confidence is, “My worth as a person is equal to everyone else’s.” That doesn’t mean you don’t have to work for what you want, and it certainly doesn’t mean that life divides up its rewards evenly. But it does mean you have the same right as anyone else to stand up for yourself, pursue your dreams, enjoy your life, and make a difference in the way that’s most meaningful to you.

2. They don’t fear self-doubt.

Confident people realize that not all self-doubt is a bad thing. Sometimes fear is a signal that you haven’t prepared enough for the big presentation, the recital, or the interview. Practicing what you plan to say and do will give your mind something to fall back on when the pressure is high. The voice of self-doubt may also be saying you need to get more information, move in a different direction, or take a break.

3. They don’t hesitate too much.

The flip side of #2 is that once you’ve put in the hours of practice, you should be able to take action without obsessing over what might go wrong.

4. They don’t wait for the “big” move.

When you envision a confident person, you might think of someone who takes big, bold actions, like running for office or making a marriage proposal on the Jumbotron. But there can be boldness and bravery in small steps. Those incremental changes build on themselves, both through your own feelings of accomplishment and reinforcement from others.

5. They don’t confuse confidence with arrogance.

Some people fear confidence, because they don’t want to start stepping on other people’s toes, taking up too much space, or just plain being a jerk. But confidence isn’t the same as arrogance or narcissism. In fact, when you feel confident in yourself, you often become less self-absorbed. When you stop worrying so much about how you’re coming across, you can pay more attention to those around you.

6. They don’t fear feedback or conflict.

A confident person can accept helpful feedback and act on it without getting defensive. When your sense of self-worth is no longer on the table, you can handle criticism or even outright rejection without allowing it to break you. By the same token, confidence doesn’t mean you mow other people down when a conflict arises. It’s possible to speak your mind with conviction and still make room to listen to someone else’s point of view and even reach a compromise.

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7. They don’t fear failure.

Confidence doesn’t mean you won’t fail. It doesn’t mean you’re always smiling or that you never experience anxiety or self-doubt (see #2). Instead, it means you know you can handle those feelings and push through them to conquer the next challenge.

8. They don’t have to make things perfect.

Perfectionism is a form of faulty thinking that contributes to low self-confidence. If you believe you have to have something all figured out before you take action, those thoughts can keep you from doing the things you value.

9. They don’t believe everything they see in ads.

Many advertisements are designed to make you feel lacking. Companies that want to sell you products usually start by making you feel bad about yourself, often by introducing a “problem” with your body that you would never have noticed otherwise.

10. They don’t believe everything they see on social media.

This point is closely tied to #9. It’s easy to believe that everyone around you has the perfect marriage, a dream career, and supermodel looks to boot. But remember that what people post online is heavily curated and edited. Everyone has bad days, self-doubt, and physical imperfections. They just don’t trot them out on Facebook!

11. They don’t avoid trying new things.

As you keep pushing yourself to try new things, you’ll start to truly understand how failure and mistakes lead to growth. An acceptance that failure is part of life will start to take root. Paradoxically, by being more willing to fail, you’ll actually succeed more — because you’re not waiting for everything to be 100 percent perfect before you act. Taking more shots will mean making more of them.

12. They don’t focus on themselves.

It might seem counterintuitive, but when you have more self-confidence, you’re less focused on yourself. We’ve all been guilty of walking into a room and thinking, “They’re all looking at me. They all think I look dumpy and that every word I say is incredibly stupid!” The truth is, people are wrapped up in their own thoughts and worries. When you get out of your own head, you’ll be able to genuinely engage with others.

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13. They don’t let others determine their goals.

No one can tell you what is most important to you. Sure, our culture will say that having a better job, a bigger house, and a fancier car is what we need to make us happy. It takes a lot of strength and conviction to not just go along with societal expectations. Self-confidence doesn’t always look like the “big” move. It can be the confidence to say, “No, this opportunity is not right for me at this time.”

Adapted from The Self-Confidence Workbook: A Guide to Overcoming Self-Doubt and Improving Self-Esteem. Copyright © 2018 by Barbara Markway and Celia Ampel.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/shyness-is-nice/201809/13-things-the-most-confident-people-dont-do

Topley’s Top 10 – April 28, 2022

1. War, Stock Corrections, Bond Bear, Record U.S. Government Debt, Covid, etc. etc…..U.S. Dollar Still King Currency.

U.S. Dollar Approaching 2020 Pre-Covid Highs…..50day going thru 200day to upside

www.stockcharts.com


2. Diesal Fuel Futures Settle at Record High

Massive exports and strong domestic consumption are helping to drain distillate stockpiles in the U.S., which have fallen to the lowest level since 2008. The shortage is most acute on the East Coast, where inventories have dropped to the lowest level since 1996. Fuelmakers on the Gulf Coast have been operating at their highest rates for this time of year in more than a decade and are still unable to rebuild stockpiles. Rising shipments to Latin America and Europe have left the main fuel pipeline supplying the East Coast underused.

Shifting trading patterns also contributed to spiking prices. Liquidity has fallen in recent months in futures and physical markets, exacerbating volatility in both. While futures traders exited hedges, physical traders ditched storage tanks as holding onto products became a losing proposition, leaving a thinner cushion for supply crunches and price swings.

Chunzi Xu–https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-26/u-s-diesel-futures-settle-at-record-high-as-shortage-deepens?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&sref=GGda9y2L


3. 10 Year Treasury is 4 Standard Deviations Above 52 Week Moving Average

Lance Roberts, the chief investment strategist of RIA Advisors—Busy Chart but see the downtrend channel in middle….Technically speaking, he adds, the yield on the 10-year Treasury TMUBMUSD10Y, 2.794% is now 4 standard deviations above its 52-week moving average, and near the top of the long-term downtrend channel from 1980.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bond-market-has-crashed-why-one-strategist-says-embrace-the-pain-and-get-back-in-11651056414?mod=home-page


4. Another Mid-Term Election Chart

LPL Research..Strong Bounces Historically Off Lows

https://i0.wp.com/lplresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Blog-4.27.22.png?ssl=1


5. Apple Revenue Breakdown-Visual Capitalist

How Do Big Tech Giants Make Their Billions? (visualcapitalist.com)


6. Breaking Euro Reliance on Russian Gas Down by Country

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading

Four European gas buyers have already paid for supplies in rubles as President Vladimir Putin demanded.


7. Mortgage Volume Trades Back to Mean…Higher Rates and No Inventory.

Wolf Street “The drop in purchase applications was evident across all loan types,” the MBA’s report said. “Prospective homebuyers have pulled back this spring, as they continue to face limited options of homes for sale along with higher costs from increasing mortgage rates and prices. The recent decrease in purchase applications is an indication of potential weakness in home sales in the coming months.”

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/04/27/mortgage-volume-gets-crushed-by-spiking-interest-rates-what-it-means-for-future-home-sales-and-consumer-spending/


8. 70% of Starbucks Employees at Company Less Than One Year

Huge growth in Starbucks employees but heavy turnover.

Macrotrends

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/SBUX/starbucks/number-of-employees


9. Don’t Forget Elon Musk’s Other Company Valued at $6B

Boring Company raises additional $675 million as investors chuck money into holes in the ground

Elon Musk’s tunnel company is now valued at nearly $6 billion

By James Vincent  Apr 21, 2022, 5:18am EDT

The Boring Company has raised a new round of funding worth $675 million, with Elon Musk’s grand plan to “solve traffic” with tunnels now valued at $5.675 billion.

In a blog post announcing the news, the company reiterated its goals and achievements so far, drawing particular attention to its “next generation” of Prufrock tunnel-boring machines (TBMs).

“Unlike traditional TBMs which require upwards of a dozen or more people to operate, Prufrock is designed to be capable of operating completely remotely and autonomously via computerized systems and requires zero people in the tunnel to operate,” said the company. “The current iteration of Prufrock, called Prufrock-2, is designed to mine at up to 1 mile/week, meaning a tunnel the length of the Las Vegas strip (approximately 4 miles) can be completed in a month.”

So far, The Boring Company has built just two operational 0.8-mile tunnels underneath the Las Vegas Convention Center, as well as 1.1-mile test tunnel in Hawthorne, California. The company has been pitching its services far and wide, and although many projects have run aground, authorities in Las Vegas last year approved the construction of a 29-mile tunnel system containing 51 stations.

The planned Las Vegas tunnel system, dubbed the Vegas Loop. Image: The Boring Company

The Boring Company describes its tunnels as a “public transportation system that resembles an underground highway” but — more succinctly and accurately — as “Teslas in tunnels.” Originally, Musk said the company’s tunnels would use autonomous sleds to carry cars and specially-designed pods at speeds of up 150mph to transport pedestrians and cyclists. So far, they’re currently limited to electric vehicles (Teslas) driven by human employees at around 50mph and carrying ticketed passengers.

The company’s Las Vegas tunnels have been open for a few years now, and first-hand impressions have been mixed to say the least. When everything goes to plan, the company’s tunnels let cars pass through them at sedate speeds. But when they’re busy they also create their own traffic jams — the very problem they’re intended to solve.

Investors, though, don’t necessarily care whether or not founders like Musk ultimately follow through on their hyperbole, only that the companies they run attract enough customers and revenue to pay back their own investments. And Musk has proved, time and time again, that’s he’s very good at pushing up share prices and valuations. For the meantime, that means The Boring Company has a lot of tunnels left to dig.

Boring Company raises additional $675 million as investors chuck money into holes in the ground – The Verge


10. Portfolio PAIN Isn’t A Four Letter Word

Posted April 20, 2022 by Anthony Isola

Pleasures are to be avoided if they result in greater pain, and pain is to be welcomed if it results in greater pleasure. –  Epicurus

Pleasurable investing is an oxymoron. Good luck adopting buying high and selling low into your investment policy.

The human body’s reactions to pain provide sound investing advice.

Our default state is Homeostasis. Balancing pleasure and pain is never-ending. After a Dopamine overdose, the body brings order to the crime scene. Examples include crashing after a sugar high and head-splitting hangovers after alcohol overindulgence.

We’re a Dopamine Nation.

 

This chart measures the percentage dopamine increase of a rat trapped in a box when exposed to various substances.

Anna Lembke drops knowledge in her ground-breaking book, Dopamine Nation. She compares food, sex, drug, and technology addiction to a pendulum. When the pendulum is overweight pleasure, pain gremlins jump onto the other side, throwing things back into balance. Pain overcompensates, leading to the need for more Dopamine to maintain Homeostasis. Addiction creates massive pain.

What happens if we reverse engineer pain and pleasure?

Dr. Lembke states: Pressing on the pain side of the balance can lead to its opposite – pleasure. Unlike pressing on the pleasure side, the Dopamine that comes from pain is indirect and potentially more enduring. 

Pleasure gremlins jump on after the initial pain creating longer-lasting pleasure; intermittent exposure to pain makes us less vulnerable.

Cold showers and baths are initially painful. Our bodies eventually numb themselves to the exposure.

According to Dr. Lembke: Dopamine rose gradually and steadily throughout the cold bath and remained elevated for an hour afterward. 

Exercise is the ultimate example.

Exercise is immediately toxic to cells, leading to increased temperature, noxious oxidants, and oxygen and glucose deprivation.

Then this happens.

Exercise increases many of the neurotransmitters involved in positive mood regulation: Dopamine, serotonin,…..Exercise contributes to the birth of new neurons and even reduces the likelihood of using and getting addicted to drugs.

Acupuncture falls under this category. Minor pain prevents larger doses from asserting their will.

What does this have to do with investing?

It scientifically backs the old saying regarding the markets; If it feels good, you’re probably doing something wrong.

Selling your stocks in a crisis creates a momentary dopamine rush. While temporarily pleasing, the long-term market gremlins hop onto the pain side of the pendulum. Your portfolio and wealth may never recover from the extended period of suffering they unleash on your wealth and psyche.

Balancing the agony and ecstasy of the markets isn’t easy.

Investors must embrace the pain when markets fall precipitously. Short-term torture eventually morphs into self-correcting market homeostasis producing sustainable pleasure.

Credit cards offer a dopamine rush. The temporary pleasure of purchasing disposable goods doesn’t compensate for the long-term destructive effects of minimum payments attached to a 20% interest rate. The momentary disappointment of walking out of the store empty-handed is justified if you don’t have the funds to pay in full.

Phil Pearlman more than gets it.

And we live in a world where comfort is so accessible that seduction is almost unfair.

We have air conditioning in the summer, heat in the winter, a fridge stocked with food and drink, and if we don’t, we can order anything from our couch and have it sent to us in minutes or overnight in dry ice via Federal Express.

I thought about this just this morning as I adjusted the heat function on my car seat.

All of this comfort is not good.

Regarding investing and life, PAIN isn’t a four-letter word.

Source: Dopamine Nation by Anna Lembke M.D.

https://tonyisola.com/2022/04/portfolio-pain-isnt-a-four-letter-word/

From Abnormal Returns Blog www.abnormalreturns.com

Topley’s Top 10 – April 27, 2022

1. Mid-Term Election Year Seasonality vs. Normal Seasonality

Callum Thomas Chart Storm

Source: @EquityClock via @HumbleStudent

2. Misery Index Inflation Plus Unemployment Hits Highest Levels Since 1970s

Fed’s “misery index,” given its similarity to the national misery index, which is simply the sum of inflation and unemployment.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/lone-bank-doubles-down-its-doomsday-call-says-recession-will-be-worse-expected

3. 79% of Earnings Reports Beat So Far

Business Insider-Companies are raking in massive profits-The massive spending seen throughout the recovery has also buoyed the measure that Wall Street cares about the most: corporate earnings.

About a fifth of S&P 500 companies have reported first-quarter earnings so far, and the results show little sign of a weakening economy. Seventy-nine percent of companies that have reported their latest figures beat earnings-per-share forecasts, and 69% reported stronger-than-expected revenues, according to FactSet.

More broadly, companies are raking in much bigger profits than they did before the pandemic. S&P 500 earnings per share hit a record $204 at the end of 2021, up more than a third from pre-crisis levels. If first-quarter reports continue to beat forecasts, that figure will climb to even loftier all-time highs.

Ben Winck and Madison Hoff

https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-unlikely-three-charts-show-economic-recovery-going-strong-2022-4#companies-are-raking-in-massive-profits-3

4. Investment Grade Bonds…Percent of Bonds Rising on an Average Day 25 Year Low

Investment-grade bonds have hit a 17-year low, and are performing worse than even junk bonds. Normally this would signal a buying opportunity, but it’s not so simple, SentimentTrader notes. Bond traders will have less time to report transactions if Gary Gensler gets his way. The SEC chief wants to shrink the current 15-minute window, potentially to one minute, and let authorities investigate trading protocols, fees paid and the spread to Treasuries when the trade is agreed.

Abnormal Returns Blog www.abnormalreturns.com

5. TBF Short Bonds ETF +19% vs. ARKK ETF -42%

www.yahoofinance.com

6. Low Price to Cash Flow Stocks Huge Outperformance Since First Sell Off

Jeffrey Kleintop Short duration stocks (low price to cash flow) continue to outperform in markets around the world, as they have since interest rates began to rise in August 2020.

https://twitter.com/JeffreyKleintop

7. Volatility VIX Index Did Not Make New High Yet

www.stockcharts.com

8. FedEx and UPS both Make New Lows

Not sure if these are good economic indicators of slowdown but…..FDX lower highs and UPS lower highs

www.stockcharts.com

9. 2022 Best Cities to Start Business

WalletHub

Jason Kiernan 2022’s Best Large Cities to Start a Business (wallethub.com)

10. The Mindful Seven with Tristan Ahumada

By Rae Fitzgerald | April 15, 2022 | 0

How do you inspire an unmotivated son? You send him on a treasure hunt, of course! In a special solo episode, Brilliant Thoughts’ host Tristan Ahumada recounts a parable that forever changed his perspective on life, teaching him seven powerful lessons in the process.

The story centers around a very wise man who, despite his efforts, can’t seem to motivate his son to take charge of his life. The father ends up sending his son on a faux treasure hunt that takes him far away from their village. After a two-year journey the son returns home, and instead of being upset with his father for lying about the treasure, he thanks him for the many lessons and life experiences he had along the way.

The son explains that as he traveled toward the treasure, he was thrown into many new situations, expanding his awareness; however, he missed a lot of opportunities for reflection. On the journey home, he was able to be more present, able to notice the changing seasons and fellow travelers around him in a way he hadn’t before.

There’s a lot to glean from this parable, but to Ahumada, it is essentially a story about mindfulness. After reflecting on the most important takeaways, he organized them into a list of helpful suggestions called “the mindful seven.”

1. Monitor your self-talk.

Self-talk is the conversation you have with yourself, your internal monologue. It’s an important voice to be aware of because it reflects your mindset. If you’re telling yourself things like “that was stupid,” “everyone’s against me,” or “I can’t take it anymore,” you will unconsciously act those realities out in order to prove yourself right.

“It’s that self-talk, whether it’s positive or negative, that determines how we live our life and how we show up on a daily basis,” explains Ahumada. “Because what we continually tell ourselves is what we project, what we focus on.”

Family, friends and colleagues tend to know when you’re experiencing inner turmoil; they instinctively stay away. That’s because we create our lives from the inside out, so when negativity bubbles up to the surface, it’s an indication that it runs much deeper. If you want to be more mindful in general, you have to start by noticing the way you talk to yourself.

2. Think about how you use the spoken word.

The words that you use, and the tonality in which you use them, matters. Even more than self-talk, the way we approach the spoken language has a tremendous impact on the people around us. It can be used to communicate and uplift or to tear down. To Ahumada, the key is to make a habit of talking about the good things going on in your life rather than complaining by default.

“Now I’m not saying hey, look at toxic positivity where everything looks amazing,” says Ahumada. “We’re talking about you deciding what to focus on in your day.”

We all experience fear, anger and sadness—it’s part of being human. We are all subject to situations outside of our control. However, Ahumada wants us to remember that we can control how we choose to respond to those situations, as well as the things we focus on. Choosing not to dwell on things outside of your control begins to encourage the mindset of abundance.

3. Make time for daily reflection.

Intentional contemplation is the key to becoming aware of what’s really happening in your life. Making time for daily reflection will allow you to shift from a fixed mindset, which is quick to accept defeat and reject criticism, into a growth mindset, which embraces challenges and sees effort as the path to mastery. You won’t know which one you’re using unless you take time to reflect on your day.

“All it takes is five minutes at the end of the day to look back and think, ‘How did I treat people?’” says Ahumada. “And that’s where you begin to change right through that reflection, that’s key; that’s where growth happens.”

4. Always be learning and unlearning.

If you want to grow, it’s not enough to just gather new information; you need to constantly be challenging your assumptions about what you know to be true or right. To Ahumada, exposure to more people, whether in person or on the internet, is the best way to do that.

“There are so many things like this podcast, YouTube videos, audio, books that create the environment that you want to live in,” he says. “Surround yourself with those people that can help your mindset grow.”

5. Practice the things you’re afraid to do.

If there’s something you’ve been wanting to do but are afraid to get started, that’s a pretty good sign you need to be working your way up to it. Growth doesn’t arise out of comfortable, certain situations; it happens when we test ourselves, challenge perspectives and conquer fear.

Working through something uncomfortable helps challenge the limiting beliefs that are holding you back. It doesn’t happen when you just do it once, though; it’s essential to be constantly practicing whatever you’re trying to improve, whether it’s self-talk, reflection or something totally different. Just like you should always be learning and unlearning, you should always be practicing the new lessons to solidify them into habit.

6. Prioritize the big three.

Especially in Western culture, people tend to think about the mind and body as separate, almost distinct entities. Ahumada says that it’s all you—your mind, body, spirit and emotions. These aspects of personhood are actually inextricably connected and constantly affecting each other. Together, they comprise the self, which should be everyone’s number one priority.

Number two of the big three is family, which Ahumada recognizes looks different to everyone. It could be your pets, your parents, your siblings, your friends, your partner or whoever else brings goodness into your life. Part of being human is having and maintaining relationships because other people have a profound effect on your well-being.

After self and family, Ahumada says you need to be taking care of your business, whatever that looks like. It could be a side hustle, writing a book or a steady job; the type of business isn’t important, only that you make it a priority.

7. Follow a routine.

You have the power to design and implement a routine for self-betterment. Following a routine is the practice of making mindfulness a habit, and it ties the previous six together seamlessly. A disciplined routine doesn’t just create freedom, but also greater awareness, which is ultimately what mindfulness is all about: noticing thoughts, actions, feelings and sensations.

“Scientists don’t fully understand the brain, it’s so complicated, and they’re not even close to figuring it out,” says Ahumada. “The one thing they do know, though, is that you can change habits, is that you can change yourself by changing what you input.”

At the end of the day, you’re the only person in charge of your growth. The good news is that you can do it—you are totally capable of navigating your own ship, especially when you embrace the mindful seven.

Rae Fitzgerald https://www.success.com/the-mindful-seven-with-tristan-ahumada/

Topley’s Top 10 – April 26, 2022

1. FB, SHOP, PAYPAL, NFLX All Now Underperforming S&P Since Pandemic.

Ben Carlson-A Wealth of Common Sense-Surprisingly, each of these stocks is now underperforming the S&P 500 since the per-pandemic days at the start of 2020:

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/04/what-does-the-bond-market-rout-mean-for-the-stock-market/


2. What has Market Priced in Regarding FED Rate Raises?

Jim Bianco-As of Friday’s close, the market had 14 rate hikes priced in for the entire cycle. This includes 50 – 75 – 50 over the next three meetings. Or, a 2.00% – 2.25% funds rate on July 27.

(19) Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth (@biancoresearch) / Twitter


3. S&P and Nasdaq Officially Testing YTD Previous Lows

S&P Testing Lows

QQQ Testing Lows

www.stockcharts.com


4. Put/Call Ratio Spikes to 2020 Sell Off Levels.

The Put/Call Ratio is an indicator that shows put volume relative to call volume. Put options are used to hedge against market weakness or bet on a decline. Call options are used to hedge against market strength or bet on an advance. The Put/Call Ratio is above 1 when put volume exceeds call volume and below 1 when call volume exceeds put volume. Typically, this indicator is used to gauge market sentiment. Sentiment is deemed excessively bearish when the Put/Call Ratio is trading at relatively high levels and excessively bullish when at relatively low levels. Chartists can apply moving averages and other indicators to smooth the data and derive signals.

A Put/Call Ratio at its upper extremities would show excessive bearishness because put volume would be significantly higher than call volume. Excessive bearishness would argue for optimism and the possibility of a bullish reversal.  www.stockcharts.com

Put/Call Ratio Chart

www.stockcharts.com

CNN Fear and Greed Index

https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed


5. The Broad Commodities Index vs. Gold

This Chart shows the broad commodities index vs. gold since inflation really took hold….Gold lagging energy, food, etc.

www.stockcharts.com


6. Euro Inflation…German 10 Year Inflation Break-Evens Rise Above U.S. for First Time Since 2009

Jim Reid DB-We have just launched our latest monthly survey, which has lots of questions on inflation, rates, potential policy errors in either direction, and a terminal state WFH question to compare to those we compiled early in the pandemic. The survey will likely stay open until Wednesday lunchtime BST. It’s anonymous, and you can skip any question you don’t want to answer. As always, I’d appreciate all support in filling it in. The link is here.

Over the last week or so, German 10yr breakevens briefly edged above their US equivalent for the first time since 2009. For most of the last decade the differential has been between +50 to +100bps in favour of the US with the peak only just over a year ago at +116bps.

So it’s been a remarkable turnaround and had you said 12 months ago that German inflation would average more than the US over the next decade, you would have been looked at quite strangely.

Clearly, much of the move has been energy related with Europe’s energy costs more at risk over the next few years than the US’s. Speaking to DB’s Francis Yared, he confirms the energy story, especially in the near term, as European 2yr inflation swaps also edged above the US equivalent last week. However, if we look at the 5yr5yr inflation swap differential between the two regions there is still a c.25bps higher rate in the US than in Europe. However, the differential is close to the narrowest its been outside of the GFC period.

In our survey, there is a recurring question about your long-term inflation expectations in the US and Europe, so it’ll be interesting to see if you believe the converging trend is justified or not.


7. Net Net Coal Still Much Higher Usage in Last 25 Years….Flat for 15 Years but Not Down.

Bloomberg-In 2021, the world generated more electricity from coal than ever before, with an increase of 9% from the previous year, according to the International Energy Agency. For 2022, total coal consumption — for generating power, making steel and other industrial uses — is expected to rise by almost 2% to a record of just above 8 billion metric tons and remain there through at least 2024.

“All evidence indicates a widening gap between political ambitions and targets on one side and the realities of the current energy system on the other,” the IEA said, estimating that carbon-dioxide emissions from coal in 2024 will be at least 3 billion tons higher than in a scenario reaching net-zero by 2050.

Russia’s War Is Turbocharging the World’s Addiction to Coal-Will Wade and Stephen Stapczynski https://www.yahoo.com/now/russia-war-turbocharging-world-addiction-040103763.html


8. Commercial Drone Deliveries Growth-The Daily Shot Blog

Source: McKinsey & Company  Read full article

https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-april-21st-2022/


9. Chick-Fil-A Annual Sales Growth

Chicken sandwiches are big business
America loves Chick-fil-A.  This week the fast food company disclosed that it had sold more than $16.7 billion worth of food across its restaurants in 2021, up more than 20% on last year’s haul of $13.7bn — putting Chick-fil-A near the very top of the fast food food chain, behind only the golden arches and Starbucks in terms of US sales.
Closed on SundaysA typical Chick-fil-A (outside of a mall location), turns over more than $8 million a year (source), which is a staggering amount on its own — and more than any other major fast food chain — but gets even more staggering when you remember that those sales are crammed into just 6 days a week. As tradition has long dictated at Chick-fil-A, all of its restaurants are closed on Sundays.
So why is Chick-fil-A doing so well?The obvious answer is… delicious food. But the business model deserves some credit too. Chick-fil-A has a fairly unique franchise system — the company typically only lets owners own one franchise location (as opposed to multiple). In theory that could have limited the company’s growth, but it also means Chick-fil-A franchisees are laser focused on their one store. The stellar sales numbers suggest it can’t have hurt too much.

www.chartr.com


10. 5 Reasons Creativity Gets Crushed at Work

Our creative spirit in the workplace can be affected by constant criticism-–Anthony D. Fredericks Ed.D.

KEY POINTS

  • New ideas in the workplace are frequently “shot down” by negative criticism.
  • There are five major reasons why colleagues reject new ideas.
  • Many people protect their “corporate standing” by rejecting new ideas.

 

Let’s say you’ve got a great new idea, an idea that will transform your department into a dynamic new entity within the company. Profits will soar, people will be happy, and, of course, you’ll get a substantial raise. You bring this new idea to the weekly department meeting and announce it to all your colleagues. There is stunned silence. But, finally, from somewhere in the back of the room, somebody raises their voice and says something like, “That’s got to be the most ridiculous idea I’ve ever heard! It’ll never work!”

You’ve effectively been shot down. You’ve been hit between the eyes with a verbal bullet and your idea, for all intents and purposes, has been killed on the spot. It probably wouldn’t surprise you to know that many of us are assailed by these verbal put-downs regularly. That negativity frequently infests our workplaces where criticism is not only condoned but is often the modus operandi of an organization.

Some people are masters at tamping down new ideas. These are the naysayers—those folks who challenge every new idea as though it was a bad idea. They’ll say “no” at the drop of a hat. In many cases, it’s the result of our natural resistance to change. Change is something new and thus change is scary. Cro-Magnons may have been reluctant to hike over a mountain ridge because they didn’t know what (or who) they’d meet on the other side. They had established a comfort zone on one side of the mountain and venturing into a new environment probably meant a new set of survival skills. “Let’s play it safe,” “Let’s not take that chance,” they may have said. “No” is safe, and “yes” holds the possibility of unknown dangers, new fears, and lots of uncertainties.

Modern humans often have the same set of apprehensions—living their lives in fear. “Stay with what’s comfortable; what’s known,” they say to themselves (and others). Consequently, they want to wrap others into that comfort zone—imposing their will on colleagues who may wish to venture outside that zone and see what’s “on the other side of the mountain.”

Why Ideas Are Crushed

Why do some people feel compelled to say “no” to every new idea? Let’s take a look at a few reasons.

First, it’s a control issue. For example, when you tell someone her idea is no good, you exert a measure of control over her. Those we refer to as “control freaks” are often the ones who want to trample our energy and enthusiasm. It wasn’t their idea, so it can be controlled by saying it was a bad idea. They maintain their control by rejecting our ideas.

Second, there is a region of the human brain known as the amygdala, which serves as an automatic alarm system whenever there is danger (or the possibility of danger). Many psychologists believe this is the brain’s default position—that is, if something new and unusual appears in front of us, we have a natural tendency to picture it as harmful or dangerous. As a result, we will either protect ourselves or flee from the potential danger. In evolutionary terms, this is how prehistoric humans survived a harsh and often unpredictable environment. In modern terms, this means that new ideas are often viewed as dangerous ideas. And, if an idea is dangerous, then it must be squelched.

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Third, some people are more comfortable being pessimistic. They see the glass as half-empty, they view the world as a negative environment, they always see the “bad” in a situation, and they always want others to know of their dissatisfaction with the way things are. When someone shares a positive idea, they seek to counter it with a negative reaction. These folks are reactionaries rather than visionaries. They are most comfortable in maintaining the edges of “the box.” As you might imagine, these are individuals who frequently solicit collegial approval. Thus, if someone doesn’t tell them they’re doing a good job (regularly), they certainly aren’t going to celebrate the ideas of others.

Fourth, some people are locked into a “fixed mindset.” They are incapable of embracing new ideas just as they are incapable of embracing change. They resist change in themselves, just as much as they resist change in others or in an organization. For them, change is difficult to fathom—it’s an intimidating proposition. It’s a journey into new territory and for some, that’s both frightening and worrisome. They are content right where they are, so why do things differently? Why venture into the unknown when the “known” is very comfortable just as it is?

Fifth, and perhaps most important, naysayers get attention when they say something that goes against the grain. They are recognized (often for the wrong reasons) for a gibe, a put-down, a taunt, a sneer, or an insult. The spotlight is (temporarily) on them. They are the center of attention. Moreover, they get a reaction—sometimes a negative reaction—but for a moment, all eyes are on them. They’ve inserted their thoughts and (re)claimed their space.

So, how common are those negative comments? According to one report, it appears as though negative reactions to new ideas are on the rise. The researchers interviewed over 3,000 U.S. business leaders about behaviors in the workplace. The results showed that 53 percent of the respondents have seen an increase in “criticism,” 48 percent have seen an increase in “dismissing others’ ideas,” and 36 percent have seen an increase in “hostility” or “disparaging others.”

Are your new ideas crushed by colleagues?

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/creative-insights/202204/5-reasons-creativity-gets-crushed-work

Topley’s Top 10 – April 25, 2022

 1. Capital Group U.S. stocks generally have done well during past rising rate periods.

Capital Group U.S. stocks generally have done well during past rising rate periods

Sources: Capital Group, Refinitiv Datastream, Standard & Poor’s, U.S. Federal Reserve. S&P 500 returns represent annualized total returns.

Is the era of easy money coming to an end? | Capital Group


2. Ten-Year Treasury Approaching 3%….

Barrons-Since 1950, when this yield has been below 3%, stocks have done fine. But they’ve fared worse when it was higher (and still worse when it topped 4%). When the yield was under 3%, equities’ annualized monthly returns averaged 21.9%, versus 10.0% when yields were higher, according to Paulsen’s research. In addition, volatility was lower (13.5% versus 14.6%), while monthly losses were less frequent (occurring 27.6% of the time, versus 38.2%). More to the point, there was only one bear market when the yield was below 3% during the period studied, but 10 when it was over that level.

A Key Bond Yield Nears 3%. By  Randall W. Forsyth https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-key-bond-yield-nears-3-its-a-bad-omen-for-stocks-51650644233?mod=past_editions

www.stockcharts.com


3. U.S. Equities $30B in Outflows in 2 Weeks

Bank of America U.S. equity funds have recorded $30 billion of outflows over past two weeks, the largest since March 2020 market crash -Deutsche Bank


4. Inflation Adjusted Capex of Commodity Stocks at 20 Year Low

Otavio (Tavi) Costa

@TaviCosta https://twitter.com/TaviCosta


5. Not Many Historical Charts Dive from $10 Trillion to $300B….Pool of Negative Debt in Europe


6. With Bonds/Stocks Selling Off Together….Vanguard 60/40 Portfolio -9% YTD.

50day went thru 200day to downside back in Feb.


7. Shopify -70% ….About to Hit Covid Crisis Lows

www.stockcharts.com


8. Consumers Unhappy but Still Buying

@Charlie BilelloUS Retail Sales hit another new high last month while Consumer Sentiment fell to its lowest level in over a decade. Translation: Americans are not happy about rising prices but they’re still spending money.

Part of the rise in retail sales is simply due to higher prices as inflation-adjusted sales peaked last April. But real retail sales are still 15% higher than pre-covid levels. So demand remains strong irrespective of inflation and is likely due to the strength of the consumer balance sheet.


9. Space X Zero to Almost 2000 Satellites Since 2019

Barrons Starlink Could Be the Key to a $100 Billion Valuation for Elon Musk’s SpaceX By Al RootFollow https://www.barrons.com/articles/elon-musk-spacex-starlink-51650672885?mod=past_editions


10. How to Think: The Skill You’ve Never Been Taught

Farnam Street Blog https://fs.blog/

How to Think: The Skill You’ve Never Been Taught

No skill is more valuable and harder to come by than the ability to critically think through problems. Schools don’t teach you a method of thinking. Thinking is one of those things that can be learned but can’t be taught.

When it comes to thinking the mind has an optimal way to be operated. When operated correctly you’ll find yourself with plenty of free time. When operated incorrectly, most of your time will be consumed correcting mistakes.

Good decisions create time, bad ones consume it. Good initial decisions pay dividends for years, allowing abundant free time and low stress. Poor decisions, on the other hand, consume time, increase anxiety, and drain us of energy.

But how can we learn how to think?

For the answer we turn to Solitude and Leadership, a lecture given by William Deresiewicz. The entire essay is worth reading (and re-reading).

Learning How To Think

Let’s start with how you don’t learn to think. A study by a team of researchers at Stanford came out a couple of months ago. The investigators wanted to figure out how today’s college students were able to multitask so much more effectively than adults. How do they manage to do it, the researchers asked? The answer, they discovered—and this is by no means what they expected—is that they don’t. The enhanced cognitive abilities the investigators expected to find, the mental faculties that enable people to multitask effectively, were simply not there. In other words, people do not multitask effectively. And here’s the really surprising finding: the more people multitask, the worse they are, not just at other mental abilities, but at multitasking itself.

One thing that made the study different from others is that the researchers didn’t test people’s cognitive functions while they were multitasking. They separated the subject group into high multitaskers and low multitaskers and used a different set of tests to measure the kinds of cognitive abilities involved in multitasking. They found that in every case the high multitaskers scored worse. They were worse at distinguishing between relevant and irrelevant information and ignoring the latter. In other words, they were more distractible. They were worse at what you might call “mental filing”: keeping information in the right conceptual boxes and being able to retrieve it quickly. In other words, their minds were more disorganized. And they were even worse at the very thing that defines multitasking itself: switching between tasks.

Multitasking, in short, is not only not thinking, it impairs your ability to think. Thinking means concentrating on one thing long enough to develop an idea about it. Not learning other people’s ideas, or memorizing a body of information, however much those may sometimes be useful. Developing your own ideas. In short, thinking for yourself. You simply cannot do that in bursts of 20 seconds at a time, constantly interrupted by Facebook messages or Twitter tweets, or fiddling with your iPod, or watching something on YouTube.

I find for myself that my first thought is never my best thought. My first thought is always someone else’s; it’s always what I’ve already heard about the subject, always the conventional wisdom. It’s only by concentrating, sticking to the question, being patient, letting all the parts of my mind come into play, that I arrive at an original idea. By giving my brain a chance to make associations, draw connections, take me by surprise. And often even that idea doesn’t turn out to be very good. I need time to think about it, too, to make mistakes and recognize them, to make false starts and correct them, to outlast my impulses, to defeat my desire to declare the job done and move on to the next thing.

I used to have students who bragged to me about how fast they wrote their papers. I would tell them that the great German novelist Thomas Mann said that a writer is someone for whom writing is more difficult than it is for other people. The best writers write much more slowly than everyone else, and the better they are, the slower they write. James Joyce wrote Ulysses, the greatest novel of the 20th century, at the rate of about a hundred words a day—half the length of the selection I read you earlier from Heart of Darkness—for seven years. T. S. Eliot, one of the greatest poets our country has ever produced, wrote about 150 pages of poetry over the course of his entire 25-year career. That’s half a page a month. So it is with any other form of thought. You do your best thinking by slowing down and concentrating.

Improving Thinking

The best way to improve your ability to think is to actually spend time thinking.

Your decisions do the talking for your thinking.

You can’t simply take a few minutes here and there, get the gist of the problem, and expect to make good decisions.

“It’s only by concentrating, sticking to the question, being patient, letting all the parts of my mind come into play, that I arrive at an original idea. By giving my brain a chance to make associations, draw connections, take me by surprise”

— William Deresiewicz

One heuristic to tell how good someone is at making decisions is by how much time they have. The busiest people are often the ones who make the worst decisions. Busy people spend a lot of time correcting poor decisions. And because they’re so busy correcting past decisions, they don’t have time to make good decisions.

Good decision makers understand a simple truth: you can’t make good decisions without good thinking and good thinking requires time.

Good decisions make the future easier, giving you more time and less stress.

If you want to think better, schedule time to think and hone your understanding of the problem.

Topley’s Top 10 – April 21, 2022

1. Tech vs. S&P Relative Price

Callum Thomas Chart Storm

https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-17-april?s=r

2. U.S. Households in Best Shape 30 Years

Jim Reid-Deutsche Bank

FW: DB CoTD: US Households in best shape in 30 years… but does it matter?

Back in December I published “When the Fed hikes.. what happens next?” (link here) but while I was on holiday our equity strategists Binky Chadha and Parag Thatte published a much more comprehensive look at what happens to equities, sectors of the equity market, sectors of the economy, and many other things during hiking cycles. See it here.

Amongst a plethora of interesting graphs, one highlight was that showing US household’s cash now exceeds debt for the first time in three decades with net debt collapsing to zero. Clearly there will be distributional biases here but in aggregate the fiscal transfers from the pandemic have put US consumers in a decent balance sheet position. What can we conclude from this? Two things perhaps.

  1. The Fed may have to hike even more aggressively to slow consumer demand and curb price rises given their healthy balance sheets.
  2. While negative net debt is a sign of comfort, we had seven recessions between the early 1950s and early 1980s when it was also negative.

So all clear for a while perhaps with policy so accommodative, but a reminder that we think a hard landing will ultimately be unavoidable by late ‘23 / early ‘24 after an aggressive series of Fed hikes over the next 18 months.

3. Crypto Stocks Riot and Mara Testing Lows for the 4th Time in 2022

www.stockcharts.com

4. Stocks vs. Commodities History

Jeremy Schwartz WisdomTree

@JeremyDSchwartz

https://twitter.com/JeremyDSchwartz

5. ECB Rate Hikes This Year

Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-21/pace-of-ecb-rate-path-jolts-markets-with-july-hike-on-radar?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=business&utm_source=twitter&sref=GGda9y2L

6. Debt and Twitter

NYT Deal Book-Andrew Sorkin

A debt-heavy deal for Twitter would be the largest leveraged buyout in decades. But Twitter isn’t the sort of company that can take on a lot of debt. It produces about $1 billion in operating earnings per year, and analysts say it could handle about $20 billion in additional debt on its balance sheet. If Musk’s bid stays above $40 billion, that leaves a lot of equity for him to scrounge up.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/20/business/dealbook/mask-mandates-airlines.html

7. Downtown Office Vacancies

Barry Ritholtz Blog

https://ritholtz.com/2022/04/10-tuesday-am-reads-377/

8. 20 Most Popular Cities for Renters 2021

Gabriel Cortés@GABECORTES

https://grow.acorns.com/us-cities-renters-moved-to-most-in-2021/

9. The Number of Murders in U.S. Up 40% Since 2019

 

Violence in America

Last week’s violent shooting in Brooklyn as well as recent killings in New Orleans and three mass shootings over Easter weekend are the latest tragic examples of a nationwide uptick in killings in the US over the last 3 years.

Preliminary estimates for 2021 show the murder rate in the US hitting 6.9 per 100,000 people, up 38% on the numbers for 2019.

Coming up with reasons why violent crime might be rising isn’t hard. Since 2019 we’ve had a global pandemic, lockdowns, high profile police killings, civil unrest, intense economic uncertainty, a fraught election, and now rising inflation on essential goods. Those things, and others, seem to be taking their toll.

www.chartr.com

10. 9 signs your coworker has narcissistic traits

Amy Morin

23 hours ago

  • Amy Morin is a psychotherapist, author, and host of The Verywell Mind Podcast.
  • She says there are certain signs to look for if you think a coworker has narcissistic tendencies.
  • People with these traits may brag excessively, act jealous, or respond negatively to feedback.

We likely all exhibit some narcissistic tendencies sometimes. But there may be one coworker in the office who shows those tendencies more often than not.

That’s not to say they have a diagnosable mental illness, like narcissistic personality disorder. But their inflated sense of self may still cause problems at times, at least for those around them.

Here are nine signs your coworker has narcissistic tendencies.

1. They exaggerate their achievements

A colleague with narcissistic tendencies won’t just brag, they’ll embellish. You might hear things like, “I saved the whole company last year” or “Everyone always asks me for help because I’m the only one who knows how to make things happen around here.”

While they may come across like they’re full of themselves, they’re most likely hiding deep-rooted insecurities about not being good enough. The one thing they are confident about, however, is that you’ll believe their stories about how great they are.

2. They love to be the center of attention

They don’t want to hear your opinions or your stories. Instead, they want to use meetings and conversations to share about their favorite topic — themselves.

They might brag for a while, tell long-winded stories about themselves, or do things to get a laugh. Ultimately, they just want to ensure all the attention is on them.

3. They respond to feedback with aggression

Their delicate sense of self depends on being held in high regard so they can’t tolerate hearing anything unfavorable about themselves.

Their go-to defense mechanism is likely aggression. They may respond to criticism by yelling, making threats, or hurling insults. They’ll be desperate to prove the person providing the feedback is incompetent and inadequate.

4. They take advantage of their colleagues

People with narcissistic tendencies are often quite charming. They use flattery and short-lived kindness to convince people to do their work for them.

They may even play the role of the victim by offering sob stories that tug on their coworker’s heartstrings. Then, they prey on their sympathy by convincing coworkers to do favors for them.

5. They blame other people for their mistakes

They don’t want to look as if they don’t know what they’re doing, so if they make a mistake, they’ll be quick to blame other people, often in a degrading manner.

When they can’t blame specific people, they might blame the company for holding them back. The slow internet, impossible software, and lack of office space can all be blamed for any missteps.

6. They have trouble managing their emotions

While they may act aggressively on purpose sometimes, there may be other times when they genuinely struggle to manage their emotions. They’re likely to have a hard time handling frustration, anxiety, and other uncomfortable feelings.

When they can’t control their feelings, they may be quick to try to control the environment and the people in it. They may insist that everything be how they want it and that others accommodate their needs.

7. They believe they’re more special than everyone else

They fully expect to get special treatment from everyone around them. They may demand the biggest office or insist they be exempt from meetings.

Their exaggerated sense of self-importance is likely to wear thin on most people pretty fast, but there may be a few people who believe they should be revered.

8. They’re envious of other people

A coworker with narcissistic tendencies won’t be cheering anyone else on. In fact, they’re likely to resent anyone who gets recognition.

You might hear them say things like, “Well, she only got promoted because she flirts with the boss” or “He only closed that deal because I’d already laid the groundwork.”

9. They’re preoccupied with beauty, success, or brilliance

They often feel the need to be the best in all areas of life and may view life as a competition they have to win.

They may seek validation by insisting other people repeatedly tell them that they look young for their age or they may want everyone in the office to know their new love interest won a beauty contest. They’re focused on making sure they won’t be outdone by anyone in any area of their lives.

How to respond to narcissistic tendencies

A coworker with narcissistic tendencies loves attention, even if it’s negative. So while you can’t control their behavior, you can control how you respond. Ignoring their attempts to prove they’re the best might be the healthiest thing you can do for yourself and for them.

Topley’s Top 10 – April 20, 2022

1. Trucking Index -24% Correction.

www.stockcharts.com


2. ARKK—Average Stock in ETF Needs 348% Rally to Get Back to Prior Highs

Bespoke Investment Group–With the average ARKK stock down 70% from its 5-year high, it’s going to take a huge rally in the “growth” space to get back to prior levels.  As shown at the bottom of the table, the average stock in the ETF now needs to rally 348% to get back to prior highs!

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/average-ark-innovation-arkk-stock-down-70-from-5-year-high


3. U.S. Exported 17% of Domestic Gas Production in January

Dave Lutz at Jones Trading-US natural gas prices have jumped to a 13-year high as America exports a record share of its domestic output – For President Biden, that’s a success as the US helps Europe to replace Russian gas, but also his next energy headache


4. U.S. 30 Year Treasury Closes Above 3%

Hitting 7-Year Highs

www.stockcharts.com


5. Spreads in CCC Bonds have Widened 125 Basis Points this Year….50 bps. This Week.

Bloomberg-Spreads on CCC-rated debt — bonds most at risk for a default should the economy falter — have widened 125 basis points this year, compared to 57 basis points for BB rated debt and 69 basis points on average for all junk bonds, according to data compiled by Bloomberg..

Junk deals in the primary market are showing signs of trouble as well. A group of banks led by JPMorgan Chase and Co. and Citigroup Inc. last week struggled to offload over $2 billion of junk debt to help finance the buyout of Oldcastle BuildingEnvelope Inc. The company’s unsecured bond sale — rated in the CCC tier — priced at a steep discount.

Yahoo Finance https://finance.yahoo.com/news/junkiest-junk-bonds-flash-warning-183836509.html


6. The EV Supply Chain is a Problem

Morningbrew-EVs really wishing they had Chucky powers

Photo Illustration: Dianna “Mick” McDougall, Photos: Getty Images, Rivian Forums

The EV battery shortage is about to hurt more than pinching your finger in a car door.

RJ Scaringe, CEO of EV startup Rivian, told reporters on a tour of the company’s Illinois plant last week that the recent semiconductor shortage hampering the auto industry is just a “small appetizer to what we are about to feel on battery cells over the next two decades.” And with EV manufacturers’ lofty production goals, every part of the supply chain is struggling to keep up.

The biggest hiccup starts at the very beginning

We’re talking raw materials. 80% of the cost of a lithium-ion battery comes from raw materials including lithium (duh), cobalt, and nickel. But as companies scramble to snag those supplies, prices have skyrocketed. The price of lithium alone has gone up over 480% in the last year, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.

  • Tesla CEO Elon Musk said lithium battery prices were so “insane” he might just get into mining himself. You and us both, buddy.
  • And because lithium-ion batteries account for at least 30% of the cost of an EV, higher battery prices are translating to higher prices for consumers. Both Rivian and Tesla have hiked prices recently, saying expensive raw materials are partly to blame.

And those materials are not Made in the USA

In 2020, the US imported over half of its supply of 46 minerals and all its supply of 17, according to the US Geological Survey. One of the biggest suppliers is China—the world leader in lithium-ion battery manufacturing—which has a history of restricting trade for political reasons.

That’s enough to spook the White House, which considers the EV supply chain to be a national security issue. Last month, President Biden invoked the Defense Production Act, which gives the government access to $750 million to invest in domestic mining operations for critical raw materials needed by battery manufacturers. But it could take up to a decade to see new US mining projects or battery plants.

Zoom out: President Biden’s goal is for half of all new cars sold by 2030 to be electric. But given the shortage of materials, that’s like asking MasterChef contestants to make a meal with two footballs and a single noodle. According to Rivian’s Scaringe, “90% to 95% of the supply chain does not exist.”—MM

Want more EV news? We’ve got an entire newsletter focused on emerging technologies. Subscribe here.

https://www.morningbrew.com/daily

LIT-Lithium ETF

www.stockcharts.com


7. The US is building more homes than it has in 16 years and it could finally be the break buyers need

Business Insider A construction worker works on a new house being built in a suburb located north of Toronto. Mark Blinch/Reuters

  • Housing starts rose to an annual rate of 1.79 million in March, the Commerce Department said.
  • That beat the median forecast for a pace of 1.75 million and marked the fastest construction since 2006.

Homebuyers, rejoice. Contractors are picking up some of the extraordinary slack in the housing market.

US housing starts unexpectedly rose in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.79 million units, the Commerce Department announced Tuesday morning. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected starts to fall slightly to a pace of 1.75 million. The March rate marks the fastest since 2006 and a second consecutive monthly improvement.

The jump was fueled by faster construction of multifamily units. The category saw annual construction leap to an annual pace of 574,000 units from the prior month’s reading of 534,000 units. Single-family construction slowed, though still showed the second-fastest pace of construction since March 2021.

Building permits — seen as a helpful forward indicator for residential construction — rose slightly to an annual rate of 1.87 million, according to the report. That similarly beat forecasts that called for a decline to a 1.83 million-permit pace.

The uptick is a welcome sign for Americans struggling to buy a home in the supply-starved market. Home prices surged at breakneck speed early in the pandemic as strong demand quickly pulled nationwide inventory to record lows. Bidding wars on the few homes still available boosted prices even higher. The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index — which tracks prices nationwide — rose 19.2% in the year through January, landing just below last year’s record highs and well above the home inflation seen before the market bubble burst in the late 2000s.

The acceleration in home construction is the latest signal the market is on the mend. While the reading is somewhat volatile and the pace of construction could quickly reverse course, the increase hints builders are rushing to meet demand.

The Tuesday report signals a rosy outlook for homebuilders, but firms still see trouble ahead. The National Association of Home Builders’ measure of contractor confidence fell to 77 from 79 in April, the organization said Monday, reflecting a fourth straight monthly decline. Builders cited weakening sales traffic and lingering supply-chain issues for their soured moods. The market now faces an “inflection point,” with sky-high housing costs starting to dent demand just as inventory is on the rise, Robert Dietz, chief economist at NAHB, said in a statement.

Builders will want to move fast before buying activity slows. Mortgage rates have soared roughly 2 percentage points since the end of 2021 as the Federal Reserve has begun raising broad interest rates in an effort to slow sky-high inflation.

That marks one of the fastest mortgage rate rebounds in history. It’s “only a matter of time” before soaring rates bite into housing demand and quickly cool the market, Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae, said Tuesday. Still, order backlogs, strong profits for homebuilders, and the lack of existing supply should keep construction “resilient” in the near term, he added.

Rising mortgage rates will almost surely slow the construction boom later in the year as contractors aim to keep the supply-demand balance in their favor. But the March building data suggests supply is bouncing back, and that the homebuying nightmares of the past year might not be so common through 2022.

https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-starts-march-home-construction-real-estate-market-supply-recovering-2022-4


8. Russia seizes eastern Ukraine city of Kreminna, official says

Axios Ivana Saric

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Axios on emailThe Russian military has seized the city of Kreminna in eastern Ukraine and forced Ukrainian troops out of the town, the governor of the Luhansk region said at a briefing Tuesday, per Reuters.

Why it matters: Kreminna appears to be the first city Russian forces have taken since they launched a new offensive in the Donbas region Monday — a development that marked the start of a second phase of the war centered on a battle for territory in eastern Ukraine.

What they’re saying: Russian forces entered Kreminna after launching an attack “from all sides” to take control of the city, according to Gov. Serhiy Gaidai.

  • “Our defenders had to withdraw. They have entrenched themselves in new positions and continue to fight the Russian army,” he added.
  • “It is impossible to calculate the number of dead among the civilian population,” he added. “We have official statistics — about 200 dead — but in reality there are many more.”
  • Gaidai did not specify how long it took Russian forces to establish control of the city, or the length of the period in which the death toll was incurred, per Reuters.

The big picture: Heavy shelling was reported Monday alongside nearly the entirety of the 300-mile frontline in eastern Ukraine, including the Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk regions, according to Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday stressed the importance of the battle of Donbas, which he said could “influence the course of the whole war.”

Data: Institute for the Study of War; Map: Jared Whalen/Axios


9. Top Ranked Universities for Producing Start-Up Founders

Pitchbook

https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/2021-pitchbook-university-rankings-top-50-colleges-founders


10. One Way to Create Good Habits that Actually Stick

Psychology Today Why you should use situational cues when planning for the future.– Mark Travers Ph.D.

 

KEY POINTS

  • Research suggests that thinking about performing a certain behavior in a certain situation, and mentally linking the two, can create new habits.
  • Strategically linking an intention to a situation can help people remember that intention.
  • People high on the personality dimension of conscientiousness are particularly good at executing this type of if-then thinking.

 

A new study published in PLOS ONE explains how one can make long-term behavioral changes by using ‘if-then’ action planning instead of relying purely on motivation or willpower.

“Habits result from repeated past experiences of executing a specific behavior in a particular situation,” says psychologist Torsten Martiny-Huenger from UiT The Arctic University of Norway. “An open question, however, is how novel behaviors become habits. We do not have the prior experiences that make them habitual. So, how are they formed?”

The researchers hypothesized that people create new habits by thinking about performing a certain behavior in a certain situation — in other words, by creating stimulus-response links in thought.

According to Martiny-Huenger, people usually take one of three approaches when executing an action intended for the future. Here’s an example:

Suppose you agree to do a friend a favor — for example, sending a web address that you have as a bookmark on your home computer. You can’t access the bookmark right away. How are you able to complete the task some hours later? Here are three possibilities:

1.   The first approach is to verbally repeat it to yourself continuously (i.e., keep it active in working memory). However, given the many demands of our daily life, it is unlikely that we can remain focused in such a way for a prolonged amount of time.

2.   Researchers in prospective memory provide another possible mechanism. They suggest that such an intention (sending the bookmark later) activates a monitoring process that we are only minimally aware of. However, it is hard to test whether a subconscious monitoring process exists or not.

3.   The third alternative depends on the brain’s ability to form associative links. The intention to send the web address may be linked to a situational cue. For example, while reading emails on your home computer, the friend may be referred to in one of the emails (situational cue). This cue then triggers the recollection of having to send the bookmark.

The authors found evidence to suggest that the third possibility is the primary method through which memories are prompted and new habits are formed. Furthermore, they suggest this method can be used strategically by people to improve memory and habit formation.

For example, when receiving the web address request, one can think repeatedly, “the next time I start my home computer, I’ll first send my friend the web address.” Instead of relying on some coincidence to remind one about the intention, one can strategically link the intention to a situation.

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“Research indicates that making such if-then plans — which are nothing more than verbal situation-response links — facilitate remembering,” explains Martiny-Huenger.

The researchers also found that people high on the personality dimension of conscientiousness were particularly good at executing this type of if-then thinking. This is not terribly surprising, according to Martiny-Huenger, as conscientiousness is characterized by habitual planning behaviors like making lists and using a calendar.

“Our interpretation of this result is that thinking in a situation-response format is one of the cognitive procedures that conscientious people are habitually doing,” says Martiny-Huenger. “This intuitive use of a beneficial strategy contributes to being more successful in day-to-day self-regulation.”

From a practical perspective, when dealing with behaviors we cannot execute right away, the authors advise people to rely less on motivation and willpower and more on associative cues.

“The practical advice is to link the intended behavior to situational cues that provide good opportunities to initiate them,” says Martiny-Huenger. “When you want to get a little more physically active, for instance, then repeatedly think to yourself, ‘When I’m waiting in front of the elevator, I’ll turn around and use the stairs.’ Such if-then planning is not magic and it will not lead to successfully implementing the intended behavior every time, but it will increase the likelihood of completing them.”

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/social-instincts/202204/one-way-create-good-habits-actually-stick?collection=1174449

Topley’s Top 10 – April 13, 2022

1. The Last 14 Years 91% Correlation Between Fed’s Balance Sheet and S&P

Fed has started process of unraveling the balance sheet

Barrons-All of Fed Choir Finally Is Singing From the Same Anti-Inflation HymnalRandall W. ForsythFollow  https://www.barrons.com/articles/federal-reserve-inflation-rate-hikes-51649460331?mod=past_editions


2. Software ETF Still -27% from Highs.

Software ETF multiple rallies in last 3 months have failed

www.stockcharts.com


3. Contra Indicator? The Share of Investors Expecting the Economy to Deteriorate is the Highest Ever

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading–GLOOMY– Global growth optimism has sunk to an all-time low, with recession fears surging in the world’s investment community, according to the latest BofA fund manager survey – Fund managers expect the Fed to hike seven times this year, up from four times in last month’s survey, and the tightening cycle to end in April 2023.  Investors are very long cash, commodities, healthcare and energy, and materials while they shun bonds, discretionary and euro-area stocks  The share of investors expecting the economy to deteriorate is the highest ever, according to the April survey. Stagflation expectations jumped to the highest since August 2008, while monetary risk increased to a historic high, BofA strategists said, after surveying 292 panelists with $833 billion in assets under management in the first week of April.


4. Commodities in a Sideways Holding Pattern

Commodities sideways on possible recessions and China lock-down

www.stockcharts.com


5. Crypto not Holding Up to “Digital Gold” Title…..Bitcoin 90day Correlation to Nasdaq 100 Hits New High

The Daily Shot Blog Cryptocurrency: In the crypto-sphere, Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 reached a new high, which comes as Bitcoin fell through the bottom end of its 50-day moving average.

Source: CoinDesk, Koylin  Read full article

https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-april-12th-2022/


6. Inflation-Car and Meat Prices can Revert to the Mean without Recession

LPL Research


7. Housing Holds Up Well During Inflation and Rising Rates

Ben Carlson Blog-Plus housing has held up well historically when mortgage rates rise, especially during periods of high inflation:

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/04/is-the-fed-is-making-a-mistake/


8. This US airport has reclaimed its title as the world’s busiest-CNN

Marnie Hunter, CNN

US airports dominated the passenger traffic rankings in 2021, with eight of the top 10 in the United States.

World’s top 10 busiest airports for passenger traffic in 2021

1. Atlanta (ATL): 75.7 million passengers, up 76% from 2020

2. Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW): 62.5 million passengers, up 59% from 2020

3. Denver (DEN): 58.8 million passengers, up 74% from 2020

4. Chicago O’Hare (ORD): 54 million passengers, up 75% from 2020

5. Los Angeles (LAX): 48 million passengers, up 67% from 2020

6. Charlotte (CLT): 43.3 million passengers, up 59% from 2020

7. Orlando (MCO): 40.4 million passengers, up 87% from 2020

8. Guangzhou (CAN): 40.3 million passengers, down 8% from 2020

9. Chengdu (CTU): 40.1 million passengers, down 1.5% from 2020

10. Las Vegas (LAS): 39.8 million passengers, up 79% from 2020

World’s busiest airports in 2021: Atlanta reclaims title | CNN Travel


9. Carjackings in Chicago +204% 2019 to 2021

Carjackings rose only 34 percent in Chicago from 2010 to 2019 but skyrocketed 204 percent from 2019 to 1,836 in 2021.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/stunning-rise-chicago-carjackings-leaves-lawmakers-scrambling


10. How to Increase Your Self-Control

Barriers to patience and ways of overcoming them.

Posted April 12, 2022 |  Reviewed by Ekua Hagan

THE BASICS

KEY POINTS

  • Two barriers to waiting for “larger-later rewards” (rather than “smaller-sooner rewards”) are the lack of ability and the lack of desire to wait.
  • Techniques to increase the ability to wait include distraction, reframing, putting oneself in a positive mood, and using reminders.
  • Techniques that strengthen the desire to wait include exaggerating a delayed reward’s value and waiting before choosing.

Suppose you are told you can have either two marshmallows now or four later. Which do you choose? (Or replace “marshmallows” with a more attractive reward, like “a million dollars!”). No matter what the reward, the choice is between a smaller-sooner reward and a larger-later one.

So, how to decide? More generally, how do you decide whether to obtain what you desire presently or make sacrifices for something better in the future—like saving for retirement, or for a nice vacation, car, or home?

The answer depends on both your ability and desire to exercise self-control, argues a recent paper by Roberts and Fishbach, published in the April issue of Trends in Cognitive Sciences.

The paper, which reviews research on how to increase both the ability to wait and the desire to wait, is summarized below.

Increasing the ability to wait

To increase the ability to wait and improve patience, you need to make it easier to be patient. How? Here are some suggestions:

1.   Distract yourself. If you are sitting by the phone waiting for a call, for example, turn on the TV, listen to music, or find other ways of entertaining and distracting yourself.

2.   Do not make big decisions in a need state (e.g., feeling thirsty, exhausted, in pain). For instance, do not shop for food when hungry or respond to a critical email when tired. Otherwise, you may find it very difficult to resist whatever is immediately rewarding (e.g., buying junk food, sending a vicious response to the critical email).

3.   Pre-commit to being patient. In other words, long before you are faced with temptations, make the decision to wait for the larger-later reward.

4.   Use reminders for the steps you must take to receive the larger reward. Without reminders and a plan, it becomes tempting to choose an immediate option just to have closure (e.g., doing your Christmas shopping now just to cross it off the list instead of waiting and buying better gifts when the desired items go on sale).

5.   Put yourself in a positive mood. Research shows it is easier to be patient when you are happy than sad.

6.   Reframe the thing you are waiting for in a way that reduces its emotional appeal. While waiting for, say, hot chocolate, reframe it as a black liquid—not a hot, sweet, creamy, and rich drink.

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Increasing the desire to wait

To improve patience by increasing the desire to wait, find ways to make waiting worth it. How? Consider these:

1.   Wait before making a choice (“wait-to-choose technique”). For instance, looking over a restaurant menu at home may increase your appreciation for dishes that usually take longer to prepare (i.e. larger-later reward). Note, the wait-to-choose technique differs from Number 3 in the previous section; specifically, the current strategy introduces extra time before, not after, one has made a choice.

2.   Increase your level of certainty and trust, the belief that you will receive the larger reward if you are patient. This is important because as the wait becomes longer, uncertainty naturally increases.

3.   Improve the personal connection to your future self—the self who will benefit from your patience (be it in 10 days or 10 years). A stronger psychological connection to this future self increases motivation to, say, study hard and finish college or save money for retirement.

4.   Change how the options are framed, so the delayed outcome appears more valuable. For example, another way of saying you could have “$10 now or $20 later” is to say you could have “$10 now and $0 later, or $0 now and $20 later.” When options are framed in the second way, people are often more willing to wait.

Concluding thoughts on the importance of self-control and patience

Willpower and self-control are associated with a variety of positive outcomes, such as improved health, better relationships, and greater success in achieving goals.

It is usually assumed the ability to self-control is what matters the most in making good decisions—in choosing between a smaller-sooner and a larger-later reward. We assume: If people can wait, they will.

In reality, however, it is difficult to be patient if the waited-for-object is not considered valuable or desired.

The difference between desire and ability to self-control is important because so often in life we are faced with difficult choices between a smaller-sooner and a larger-later reward. Some examples are:

·  Choosing a medical treatment that works immediately but is less effective overall, or an intervention that may take longer to work but is more effective.

·  Getting a low-paying job now, or focusing on your studies for the next few years to get a better job after you graduate.

·  Going on your usual summer vacation next week, or saving money for a couple of years to go on your dream vacation and travel the world.

Regardless of the options you are faced with, to increase patience, you must analyze the situation and find what is preventing you from exercising self-control.

The research reviewed showed self-control and patience may require, in some situations, the ability to wait, and in others, the desire to wait. And as we discussed, there are techniques to improve self-control in both situations.

In summary, if you cannot wait, this means self-control is difficult. So, make it easier by using the six techniques listed above, such as distraction or reframing.

If you can but do not want to, then waiting does not appear to be worth it. Solution? Make waiting more rewarding by using one of the four strategies described, like using the wait-to-choose technique or increasing your certainty about eventually receiving the reward.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/finding-new-home/202204/how-increase-your-self-control

Topley’s Top 10 – April 12, 2022

1. U.S. Bonds Vs. Inflation

The Worst Quarter in Years for Bond Fund Investors Had Few Bright CornersBy Evie LiuFollow https://www.barrons.com/articles/bond-funds-worst-quarter-51649428107?mod=past_editions


2. Inflation Adjusted Yield on 10 Year Treasury Breaks thru 1975 and 1980 Lows

Remember all those charts on record negative yielding debt….$18T to $3T

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2-3-768×309.png?itok=mWOTtlCx


3. Spread between 2 Year Treasury and S&P Dividend Yield is now the widest it has been in fourteen years since the Financial Crisis

Corporate Profits After Tax Hit Record

Bespoke Investment Group BABY’s Back-Since mid to late-2019 when interest rates really started to fall, the dividend yield on the S&P 500 consistently provided a higher yield than the two-year US Treasury.  With a higher payout plus the potential for price appreciation, equities looked more attractive to many investors. The period from the Financial Crisis through 2017 also saw a similar setup where the S&P 500’s dividend yield was higher than the yield on the 2-year, but before the Financial Crisis and the FOMC’s zero-interest-rate policy, it was extremely uncommon for the S&P 500 to yield more than the two-year Treasury.  This year has caused a tidal shift in the balance of power in yield between the S&P 500 and the two-year Treasury.  As the Fed came to the conclusion that inflation wasn’t as transitory as originally thought and found itself behind the inflation curve, it shifted from a much more accommodative stance to one that was more biased towards tightening, and that shift resulted in one of the most rapid increases in two-year Treasury yields in decades.  In the process of this spike in rates, back in February, the yield on the two-year rose back above the dividend yield of the S&P 500 for the first time since 2019.

As Treasury yields have continued to spike, the premium in yield of two-year Treasuries relative to the dividend yield of the S&P 500 reached an important milestone last Friday (4/8).  As shown in the chart below, the spread between their yields widened out to 110 basis points (bps), taking out the high of 108 bps from 2018.  At these levels, the spread between the two is now the widest it has been in fourteen years since the Financial Crisis.  It started with long-term Treasury yields, but as the overall trend in rates has been higher, most of the Treasury yield curve is now yielding more than the S&P 500.  For years now, investors have had a TINA (There Is No Alternative) relationship with the stock market, but as interest rates have shot higher, TINA is taking a backseat to BABY (Bonds Are Better Yielders).

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/babys-back


4. High Yield ETF-After Sell Off Back to Yielding 5%

www.stockcharts.com


5. Long-Term Chart of Pro Shares Short 20 Year Treasury …..Big Rally but it was at $52 Post GFC


6. The U.S. Attracted Chinese IPOs by Offering Insiders More Favorable Rules than U.S. Based Management

WSJ-Executives and other major shareholders at American companies have to disclose their trades within two days in a filing that is posted on the Securities and Exchange Commission’s website and freely available to investors. That may deter bad behavior: Nobody wants the investor or media scrutiny that comes along with share sales that may, in retrospect, appear perfectly timed, the researchers say.

\But in the early 1990s, in part to entice foreign companies to list on U.S. exchanges, regulators exempted their executives and major shareholders from that rule. Instead, their trades are reported on paper forms and mailed to the SEC’s headquarters in Washington, where they are stored in filing cabinets for three months—technically available to curious investors with time on their hands, but effectively shielded from view.

By Liz HoffmanFollow andTom McGintyFollow https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-executives-sell-at-the-right-time-avoiding-billions-in-losses-11649164573#:~:text=Chinese%20corporate%20insiders%20have%20avoided,academic%20analysis%20of%20securities%20filings.

https://www.financialmirror.com/2021/08/04/chinese-ipos-raised-12-5-bln-in-1h-2021-more-than-all-2020/


7. Tech Insider Selling 2021


8. Stock Splits Add Very Little but Performance has been Impressive Post Event

Stock Splits Actually Work—Just Not for the Reason Everyone ThinksBy Nicholas JasinskiFollow https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-splits-2022-51649455281?mod=past_editions


9. Food Inflation

Chartr-Global food prices have just hit a new high, as the food price index from the UN Food and Agricultural Organization rose 12.6% in a single month to notch its highest ever recorded level.

Food prices were rising before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the disruption has only compounded the problem as both countries are a key source of supply in a number of food markets. Between them Russia and Ukraine account for around 30% of global wheat exports, and 20% of global maize, while Ukraine is also the world’s biggest supplier of sunflower seed oil.

All told the supply disruptions have meant the sharpest rises in global cereal and cooking oil prices, with both indices rising 17% and 23% respectively in the last month. The price rises are expected to hit poorest countries hardest, where food makes up a larger proportion of individual spending.

www.chartr.com


10. 30% of Workers Hitting Peak Hours at 10pm vs. 9am

The Atlantic-Apparently Last week, Microsoft published a study that offers an eerie reflection of my working life. Traditionally, the researchers said, white-collar workers—or “knowledge workers,” in the modern parlance—have had two productivity peaks in their workday: just before lunch and just after lunch. But since the pandemic, a third and smaller bump of work has emerged in the late evening. Microsoft’s researchers refer to this phenomenon as the “triple peak day.”

A new study shows some workers experience a third productivity peak late in the evening (Microsoft)

For the new study, workers allowed Microsoft to track their “keyboard events”—a funny euphemism for sending emails or engaging with productivity applications on a work computer. While most people didn’t show a third mountain of work in the evening, 30 percent did. They were working almost as much at 10 p.m. as they were at 8 a.m.  This Is What Happens When There Are Too Many Meetings-Why a 9-to-10 is the new 9-to-5 By Derek Thompson https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/04/triple-peak-day-work-from-home/629457/

Topley’s Top 10 – April 11, 2022

1. Corporate Profits After Tax Hit Record

Peak?

Philip Van Dorn Marketwatch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-you-can-play-it-safe-with-your-investments-as-interest-rates-rise-11649350072?mod=home-page


2. First Quarter ETF Winners and Losers

https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright


3. Natural Gas About to Break Out of a 15 Year Sideways Box

www.stockcharts.com


4. 10 Year Real Yield Still Negative but Highest Since March 2020

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-06/stocks-set-to-decline-on-fed-fallout-crude-lower-markets-wrap?sref=GGda9y2L


5. Two Defensive Sectors Big Pharma and Utilities Start Outperforming Transports

When defensive sectors start outperforming economically linked sectors like transports, it can sometimes point to a slowdown.  This chart show PPH Big Pharma ETF vs. Dow Transports.

Another defensive sector Utilities outperforming Dow Transports

www.stockcharts.com


6. Vanguard Consumer Spending ETF VCR…50 day thru 200 day to downside…

VCR-bounced back to 200 day and reversed back down….This will be tell on how inflation affecting consumers.

www.stockcharts.com


7. Small Cap Tech vs. S&P

Callum ThomasBig Trouble in Small Tech:  Seems small cap tech stocks are struggling to keep up. For that matter, small caps in general have been a picture of weakness, and tech still seems vulnerable. I would call this breakdown here a red flag.

Source:  @adaptiv         https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/weekly-sp500-chartstorm-10-april-2022-callum-thomas/?trk=eml-email_series_follow_newsletter_01-hero-1-title_link&midToken=AQFjhnSMpoKQvw&fromEmail=fromEmail&ut=3v3v3jedfgxac1


8. Top 10 Stocks by Market Cap Make Up 25% of the Entire U.S. Market

Steve Blumenthal CMG Wealth How About the Top 10 Stocks?-The top ten stocks make up 31.4% of the value of the S&P 500 Index, 25% of the entire U.S. stock market, and ~ 14% of the entire value of the global stock market.

Rhymes, indeed.

https://www.cmgwealth.com/ri/on-my-radar-signup/


9. China 1980 vs. 2020….See Urbanization.

Capital Group 40 years of explosive growth

Sources: Capital Group, CEIC Data, IMF, The World Bank. *Data for number of private enterprises as of 1988 and 2018. RMB represent Chinese renminbi.

China’s manufacturing engine climbs the value chain

Source: Capital Group, based on reports from Euromonitor, SNE Research and company filings. Data is as of May 2021 and reflects approximate figures.

https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/investment-lessons-40-years-china.html?sfid=1988901890&cid=80722185&et_cid=80722185&cgsrc=SFMC&alias=D-btn-LP-6-A1cta-Advisor


10. You Are Perfectly Suited To Be Yourself

I don’t know if you have noticed, but most of our dilemmas begin with some type of ignorance or deception. Have you ever been told that if you set your mind to it you could achieve anything? That’s a lie. For a long time, I believed it. This is the lie that creates the great psychological fault line in the development of young men and women in our society. And once the fault line is there, it’s only a matter of time before the earthquake. Looking back on my childhood, I have identified one consistent and repetitive untruth that I was told. My brothers were misled in the same way, as were my friends.

 

The people who told us this lie thought they were helping us. They wanted only to encourage us. On the surface, it seemed like the good and noble thing to do, but the damage that was being done was below the surface. The lie has several versions: “You can do anything you set your mind to” and “You can be whatever you want to be as long as you work harder than anyone else” and “You can have anything if you want it bad enough.”

 

At first I was young, and young people tend to believe people who are older and have some kind of authority over them—parents, teachers, coaches, older brothers and sisters, even babysitters. So at first I believed the lie. I set my mind to things and failed. I wanted things badly and failed.

 

And with these failures came feelings of inadequacy and self-loathing, feelings that as a young man I was too proud to talk to anyone about, so I could only bounce them around inside myself without any hope of figuring them out. In the years since, I have seen this same phenomenon in my brothers and friends, and now I see it in the young people I work with in high schools and colleges. They apply themselves with all the strength of their will and the focus of desire, and they come up short.

 

Self-doubt begins to plague them. They review the steps they took. They seem sure that they “set their mind to it” as they had been encouraged to do. They did the best they could, but still they failed. They followed those golden maxims set out for them by their teachers, parents, coaches, mentors, professors, and employers… and still they fell short. Sometimes we fail at things because we are simply not well suited to them. But we are seldom told such things when we are young, and our minds are like sponges. People keep telling us that we can do anything if we set our minds to it. These maxims are so absolute and so often reinforced that when we follow them and fail, we are left with only one conclusion: There must be something wrong with me. Here begins the great wrestle with self-doubt, insecurity, inadequacy, and self-loathing. Many of us struggle with these feelings our whole lives, consciously or subconsciously. Most of us struggle with them semiconsciously. We know that they are there, that they are affecting us, but we don’t know what to do with them or about them. These feelings affect our relationships, the way we progress professionally, the way we manage our time, the way we plan for the future, and the way we dream or don’t dream. If the lie is that you can do anything you set your mind to, then what is the truth? Some would say cynically, “You can’t do anything you set your mind to.” But they too would be wrong. The truth is this: We are capable of extraordinary things, but each of us is different. Our unique abilities make us better suited for some things than for others. What does that mean to you? It means that you can’t do any- thing you set your mind to and that that doesn’t make you bad or deficient—just human. It is finding the things that you are better suited for that is one of the great adventures of this life and the source of a great deal of happiness. You cannot do anything you set your mind to. If you are four feet tall, you are not well suited to become the next legendary basketball player. But you are still perfectly suited to be yourself. The real question is this: What are you well suited to achieve and become? Matthew Kelly From Perfectly Yourself Click Here to get your copyhttps://www.matthewkelly.com/post/they-lied-to-you

Topley’s Top 10 – April 07, 2022

1. Global Bonds Slump to a Discount for First Time Since 2008

Finbarr Flynn

(Bloomberg) — A gauge of global bonds dropped below a key fixed-income watermark after Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard signaled a quicker-than-expected rundown of the central bank’s debt holdings.

The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index fell below a measure of so-called par value Tuesday, with its price falling to 99.9 — under the key 100 level at which bonds are often sold to investors. It’s the first time since 2008 that the gauge has traded at a discount to face value.

Global investors have fled the bond market this year, as skyrocketing inflation forced many central banks to accelerate plans for rate hikes to try and cap rising prices. The index — which contains government and corporate debt — has fallen 7.4% so far this year — a drop in market value of some $4.6 trillion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Brainard called the task of reducing inflation pressures “paramount” and said the Fed will raise interest rates steadily while starting balance sheet reduction as soon as next month.

Stock, Credit Markets Too Calm Ahead of Fed QT, Funds Say

Treasuries extended a slump Wednesday, pushing the benchmark 10-year yield past 2.6% to the highest since 2019.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-bonds-slump-discount-first-065315087.html


2. U.S. Stock Buybacks Drop to Lowest in 5 Years

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading-U.S. stock buybacks dropped to the lowest in five years in the first quarter, providing evidence of a reversal in the multi-decade bullish trend for equities, according to BofA – While buybacks typically slow at the end of each quarter ahead of the earnings season, spending by S&P 500 firms on share repurchases as a percentage of market capitalization fell to its lowest since the first quarter of 2017


3. U.S. vs. Rest of World…Valuation Spread Historical Event

This is the U.S. divided by the rest of the world …2 std. deviation event…Double 1999 bubble.

Courtesy of Animal Spirits Podcast  https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2022/04/06/animal-spirits-long-global-short-usa/


4. U.S. Households Net Worth Relative to Consumption Straight Up…Cushion for Recession Watch.

For now, strong household balance sheets are expected to be a tailwind for spending.

Source: Gavekal Research

The Daily Shot https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-april-6th-2022/


5. Crude Pulls Back Toward Major Support


6. Chinese Executives Sell at the Right Time, Avoiding Billions in Losses

WSJ–Consider a trade in Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. BABA -2.99% stock in 2020. In October of that year, Alibaba’s payments affiliate, Ant Group Co., was preparing for its initial public offering, a move that would have likely increased the value of Alibaba’s one-third stake.

Then Alibaba’s founder, Jack Ma, criticized Chinese regulators in a speech that infuriated government leaders, who scuttled the listing. Alibaba shares fell 8% on the New York Stock Exchange the day the announcement was made, Nov. 3, 2020.

Chinese tech stocks popular among U.S. investors have tumbled amid the country’s regulatory crackdown on technology firms. WSJ explains some of the new risks investors face when buying shares of companies like Didi or Tencent. Photo Composite: Michelle Inez Simon

The day before that announcement, an entity controlled by an Alibaba insider sold $150 million of Alibaba stock, according to filings. It isn’t known exactly who controls the entity, Sky Scraper Enterprises Ltd., but whoever it is was one of the company’s best-paid executives in recent years and had been granted huge swaths of stock as compensation, the Financial Times previously reported. The sale avoided hundreds of millions of dollars of losses when the stock dropped on news of the scuttled IPO.

The filing said the trade was made under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan that was adopted two months earlier. Such plans are supposed to be adopted when an insider doesn’t have nonpublic information that might affect the stock price, and executives can’t direct stock sales after it is in place. A spokeswoman for Alibaba said the company’s plans require a period of up to 60 days before trading can begin.

How’s That October 2020 Insider Sale Look…Top tick $300

Chinese Executives Sell at the Right Time, Avoiding Billions in Losses – By Liz HoffmanFollowTom McGintyFollow

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-executives-sell-at-the-right-time-avoiding-billions-in-losses-11649164573?mod=itp_wsj&ru=yahoo


7. Volatility Index Non-Event Around Fed Speak


8. Carnival records busiest week in company history

Ihsaan Fanusie—Carnival Cruise Line (CCL) recorded its biggest booking week in company history last week as demand for luxury cruises continues to skyrocket.

The company announced that 22 of its 23 ships are back in operation now after many of the ships were out of operation following the pandemic. With covid hospitalizations decreasing and the 7-day moving average for new cases on the decline in the US, consumers feel more comfortable embarking on cruises.

“So where we are right now is in almost a transition period where it continues to come down,” Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Dr. Anthony Fauci told Yahoo Finance Live last week. “The CDC has pulled back on some of the recommendations for indoor masking. And yet, in the next week or two, we will see soon whether we are going to see an increase.”

The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) updated its guidelines for cruise travel on March 30, removing the “Cruise Ship Travel Health Notice” that it has uploaded on its website following a spread of COVID-19 variants across the world. Back in January, the CDC had given cruise ships a Level 4 warning, the highest level possible.

Carnival wasn’t the only cruise line to record significant bookings increases. Virgin Voyages, the cruise line operating under the parent conglomerate Virgin Group, also experienced higher demand after the CDC announcement.

“There’s incredible pent-up demand,” McAlpin, the president as well as chief executive of Richard Branson’s cruise line, told Yahoo Finance in an interview. “We are starting to see it. Bookings are up significantly, 125% over just January levels. Last week, we had a record booking week and we are gonna surpass that this week.”

Ihsaan Fanusie is a writer at Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter @IFanusie.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carnival-records-busiest-week-in-company-history-210654882.html


9. The Richest People in the World.

https://www/visualcapitalist.com/richest-people-in-the-world-2022/


10. To Be a More Decisive, Persuasive, and Effective Boss, Science Says First Take a Look at the Clock

Research shows sleep affects leadership decision making, engagement, and behavior. Here’s why you should get a good night’s rest — and what to do when you haven’t gotten enough.

BY JEFF HADEN, CONTRIBUTING EDITOR, INC.@JEFF_HADEN

Even though he was our boss, for the first two hours of each day we only glimpsed Rudy from a distance when he shuffled back and forth from his office to the break room coffee machine. If we called him — even if we paged him — he wouldn’t answer.

By around 10 a.m., he was a different person. Upbeat. Encouraging. Chatty. Eager to solve job scheduling or materials bottlenecks that could affect our productivity.

Then, by late afternoon, he became yet another person. Instead of chatting, he barked orders. Instead of solving actual problems, he yelled about nonexistent ones. Whether we needed his help or not, we did our best to avoid him.

Hold that thought.

It’s easy to assume that some people are good leaders and others are not. But the reality is more nuanced. Sometimes you’re a great leader. You’re empathetic. Insightful. Collaborative. Decisive.

Other times, you’re less effective.

Why? According to research, sleep plays a major role in your effectiveness. A 2015 study published in Academy of Management found that bosses who don’t get a good night’s sleep are less likely to make good decisions the next day. So, for example, less likely to foster engagement and collaboration with, and among, their teams the next day.

And they are also more likely to be abusive (which the researchers define as “hostile verbal and nonverbal behavior”) towards their employees the next day.

As the researchers write:

Emerging evidence suggests that leaders might be more (or less) abusive on some days than on others…abusive supervisory behavior varied more within supervisors than it did between supervisors.

Why does sleep deprivation have such an impact on leadership performance? For one thing, tired people tend to make poorer decisions. 

But the researchers speculate the real culprit is ego depletion: Since self-control draws on a limited pool of mental resources that can be used up, when your energy is low, so is your self-control. Which means you’re less likely to have the inner “oomph” required to be the kind of leader you want to be.

Which makes you less patient. Less tolerant. Less collaborative. More likely to make snap decisions — and to snap at people, even if your version of “snapping” is only a nonverbal eye roll.

Rudy? He was chronically sleep-deprived. He needed four cups of coffee and a couple hours of quiet time to face the day, and us. But by the afternoon, no amount of coffee — or “I really want to be a good leader” willpower — could overcome his fatigue.

The solution, of course, is to always get a good night’s sleep.

But like most solutions, that isn’t always possible. So what should you do when you haven’t gotten a good night’s sleep? According to the researchers, don’t just try to power through.

Instead, adapt to the fact — and it is a fact — that lower levels of physical and mental energy can impact your leadership performance. If you can, put off major decisions. Force yourself to take a beat and think — instead of just reacting — before making smaller decisions. Recognize that fatigue naturally decreases your tolerance for frustration, and save potentially difficult or confrontational conversations with employees — if the issue or problem can be put off — for the next day.

And don’t answer emails that require deep thought, or nuance, or fine judgment late at night. Save them for the next morning when you’re fresh.

The key is to remember that no one is able, no matter how hard they may try, to always be the exceptional leader they aspire to be — especially when they’re tired.

So do your best to ensure you are at your best.

And when you’re not, to adjust accordingly.

https://www.inc.com/video/how-you-can-strengthen-your-problem-solving-skills-to-better-grow-your-business.html?cid=sf01003

 

Topley’s Top 10 – April 04, 2022

1. High Yield Stock Index Trading at Discount

Barrons-Start with common dividends. Five years ago, the S&P 500 index traded at 18 times forward earnings, and the index’s high-yield stocks went for about the same price. Now, investors can pay 20 times this year’s earnings for the S&P index, or 13 times for its high-yielders. One fund that tracks them is the SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend exchange-traded fund (SPYD). It yields 3.8%.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-yields-51648852945?mod=past_editions

www.stockcharts.com

2. Price to Book Valuations Vs. Historical

Top Down Charts Blog-Price to Book Valuations: S&P 500 price to book ratios still at eye watering levels.

Correction barely put a dent in valuations: Upper Quartile of industries are trading at price to book ratios *higher* than that seen during the dot com bubble, and this is despite a (minor) reset. Even the Lower Quartile is at the upper end of the range, and last but not least: the Median is well above that ever seen in recent history.

Source: Chart of the Week – Vertiginous Valuations

3. JP Morgan Valuation Update March 31

https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIuIaHyJX69gIVDAaICR0y0A0wEAAYASABEgI8uPD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

4. Lithium Prices +441% in One Year

The February reading for the lithium price index, which is tied to the global weighted average price for lithium carbonate and hydroxide—two primary lithium chemicals—stood at 869.2, up 88% so far this year, and up by a whopping 441% from the same time a year ago, according to data from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. By Myra P. Saefong

https://www.barrons.com/articles/ev-demand-lithium-prices-51648710901?mod=past_editions

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithium

5. Intermediete Term Momentum Positive…Nasdaq Had 10% Rally in 10 Trading Sessions

Bloomberg-Last week, 80% of the roughly 2,000 constituents of the NYSE Composite Index — which spans all common stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange — traded above their 20-day averages. That’s happened 56 times in the last decade, and over the subsequent 100 days after these occurrences, the gauge climbed an average 6%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 index is also flashing some positive signals. In mid-March, it rallied more than 10% over four trading sessions. Four-day gains of at least 10% are rare, occurring 12 times in the last two decades, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Over the subsequent 100 days, the index returned an average of 8%.

Tech Jump

6. Bitcoin Now Outperforming S&P YTD

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin is outperforming the S&P 500 so far this year but has lagged gold.

Although, altcoins outperformed bitcoin in March, indicating a stronger appetite for risk among crypto traders.

From The Daily Shot Blog https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-april-1st-2022/

7. Rise in Average Monthly Mortgage Payments

NYT- In February, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the median monthly payment on a new mortgage application in America jumped more than 8 percent in just one month. That spike points to an entirely new and unpredictable phase in what has been a jaw-dropping housing market.

By Emily Badger and Quoctrung Bui https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/31/upshot/home-prices-mortgage-rates.html

8. Inflation Huge Negative for Consumer Sentiment

Found at Zerohedge

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bear-traps-not-about-2s10s-there-far-far-more-going-we-see-20-30-near-term-downside

9. U.S. Military Spending vs Other Top Countries

Source: Visual Capitalist

From Barry Ritholtz Blog https://ritholtz.com/2022/04/weekend-reads-510/

10. 10 Lessons from Great Businesses

After publishing over half a million words on some of the world’s most innovative businesses, these are the 10 lessons I come back to again and again. You’ll find tactics from Stripe, FTX, Tiger Global, OpenSea, and other exceptional organizations.

Actionable insights

If you only have a couple of minutes to spare, here are ten lessons from great businesses that investors, operators, and founders should know.

  1. Be a painfully persistent recruiter (Stripe)
  2. Maximize deep work time (Levels)
  3. Obsess over your customer (Coupang)
  4. Align the incentives (AngelList)
  5. Think like a nation-state (Terra)
  6. Invest in soft-power (FTX)
  7. Preserve optionality (OpenSea)
  8. Intensify your advantages (Tiger Global)
  9. Find your counter-positioning (Telegram)
  10. Proactively reinvent yourself (Many)

https://www.readthegeneralist.com/briefing/10-lessons

Topley’s Top 10 – March 31, 2022

1. Stocks Have Gained in April 15 of Past 16 Years

LPL Research

https://Iplresearch.com/2022/03/30/here-comes-the-best-month-of-the-year/


2. Emerging Markets Closed Below 200day Moving Average on Long-Term Weekly Chart

www.stockcharts.com


3. Chief Investment Officer Survey

CNBC

Maggie Fitzgerald@MKMFITZGERALDPatricia Martell@HTTPS://WWW.LINKEDIN.COM/IN/PATRICIA-MARTELL-CNBC/@PATRICIAMARTELL https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/30/investors-believe-its-time-to-buy-high-dividend-stocks-cnbc-survey-shows.html


4. Investment Grade Debt Biggest Dollar Decline Ever

Advisor Perspectives-The slump marked the biggest total return loss for high-grade bonds since Lehman Brothers’ collapse, and the worst junk performance since the start of the pandemic. The U.S. investment grade market alone saw about $440 billion in market value erased and is on track for the biggest three-month slump since 1980.

Global Corporate Bonds Lost $1 Trillion, and Risks Are Risingby Tasos Vossos, Hannah Benjamin, Jack Pitcher, 3/30/22 https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2022/03/30/global-corporate-bonds-lost-1-trillion-and-risks-are-rising


5. Yield Curve Inversions and SPX Returns

Posted on March 30, 2022 by Rob Hanna

There has been a lot of talk recently about yield curve inversions and whether that means a recession is on the way, and how soon? And if there is a recession, will there also be a bear market? I decided to forget about economic forecast and just look at how the SPX did after a curve inversion. I looked at both the 2yr/10yr and the 3mo/10yr combinations. For the study I used Norgate Data, and looked back as far as my database went, which was 1976 for the 2yr rate and 1981 for the 3mo. Results can be found below.

Note that 21 trading days is approximately 1 month. So 42 days is two months, 126 days is 6 months, 252 days is a year…you get it.

Not many instances to build out a case here. Some good and some bad numbers. More bullish than bearish. Overall, the initial inversion does not seem to be a great timing signal. Academics can argue and tv talking heads can blather about potential consequences, but traders should probably look to better timing devices to make their market judgements. I don’t see myself factoring this into any trading decisions.

Want research like this delivered directly to your inbox on a timely basis? Sign up for the Quantifiable Edges Email List.

https://quantifiableedges.com/yield-curve-inversions-and-spx-returns/


6. Two Week Short Squeeze?

Zerohedge

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-bullion-black-gold-bid-putin-sparks-stock-skid


7. Walmart Owns Most of Supermarkets in Mexico

VisualCapitalist-Mexico’s Relationship with Walmart-When it comes to supermarkets in Mexico, no single company comes close to matching the reach of Walmart. Also the world’s largest company by revenue, Walmart has over 2,700 stores in the country, including chains it owns such as Sam’s Club and Bodega Aurrera. The latter is both the largest supermarket within the Walmart category, and also the most popular in Mexico.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/walmart-owns-most-of-the-supermarkets-in-mexico/


8. Fertilizer Prices Huge Rally but Only Back to Pre-Covid Levels

Barrons

How Putin’s War Made These 3 Fertilizer Producers Hot Stocks-By Craig Mellow https://www.barrons.com/articles/putin-russia-ukraine-natural-gas-fertilizer-51648254668?mod=past_editions


9. U.S. population in multigenerational households quadrupled since 1971

Pew Research

For many, multigenerational living has practical reasons and emotional results

U.S. population in multigenerational households quadrupled since 1971 | Pew Research Center


10. Principles For Making the Right Decision

https://www.linkedin.com/in/raydalio/

Topley’s Top 10 – March 30, 2022

1. ”Real” Rates Not Near Recession Levels.

Dave Lutz at Jones Trading-“Real rates are staying very accommodative, which tends to go against the recession trade. They averaged +200bp at the time of past curve inversions, vs current negative. One doesn’t tend to have a recession from the starting point of outright negative real rates“ – JPMorgan


2. Platinum and Palladium Big Corrections

Platinum -17% Correction

Palladium -40% Correction

www.stockcharts.com


3. Brazil Stock Market +35% Year to Date

EWZ Brazil ETF-20% Move Up in 10 Days…50day thru 200day to upside


4. Software as Services (SaaS) Worldwide End-User Spending

Many of the fastest-growing companies within the technology sector over the past few years have implemented the Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) software licensing model, which allows users to access the software through a subscription-based internet platform instead of downloading programs. This business model makes software easier to scale, as there are fewer barriers to entry for new customers. The recurring revenue generated by subscription-based services also makes SaaS companies more attractive to potential investors. The past few years have seen a rapid appreciation in the value of many of these companies, with the seemingly endless availability of capital that was partially the result of massive global economic stimulus after the pandemic-induced decline. Many SaaS companies also benefited from the work-from-home investment theme, as internet-based platforms allowed for easier transitions between working environments.

https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright


5. Exports Via LNG Exceed Pipeline for First Time in 2021

Exports via LNG (red line) in 2021 exceeded pipeline exports (purple line) for the first time:

US Natural Gas Production and LNG Exports amid Urgent Demand for LNG from Europeby Wolf Richter  https://wolfstreet.com/2022/03/28/us-natural-gas-production-and-lng-exports-amid-urgent-demand-for-lng-from-europe-wheres-it-going-to-come-from/


6. Best Performing Commodity ETFs this Year

Best Performing Commodity ETFs Of The Year (ex. leveraged/inverse)

Fund

Ticker

YTD Rtn

iPath Series B Bloomberg Nickel Subindex Total Return ETN

JJN

72.8%

ELEMENTS Rogers International Commodity Index

RJN

60.2%

United States Brent Oil Fund LP

BNO

58.5%

iPath Series B Bloomberg Energy Subindex Total Return ETN

JJE

57.5%

United States Natural Gas Fund

UNG

56.0%

iPath Series B Bloomberg Natural Gas Subindex Total Return ETN

GAZ

54.8%

United States 12 Month Natural Gas Fund

UNL

50.9%

iPath GSCI Total Return Index ETN

GSP

50.6%

iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil ETN

OIL

50.2%

United States Oil Fund

USO

48.5%

United States Gasoline Fund

UGA

47.6%

GS Connect S&P GSCI Enhanced Commodity Total Return Strategy Index ETN

GSCE

47.3%

Proshares Trust-Proshares K-1 Free Crude Oil Strategy ETF

OILK

43.7%

Teucrium Wheat Fund

WEAT

43.6%

Invesco DB Energy Fund

DBE

43.2%

iShares S&P GSCI Commodity Indexed Trust

GSG

42.5%

United States 12 Month Oil Fund

USL

41.4%

iShares GSCI Commodity Dynamic

COMT

38.0%

ETRACS Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return ETN Series B

DJCB

35.2%

iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return ETN

DJP

3

https://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/best-performing-commodity-etfs-year


7. $18 Trillion Increase in Household Net Worth 2021

The Free Money Effect-The significant increase in US home prices (Case Shiller National Index up 19%) combined with a roaring stock market (S&P 500 up 29%) lead to an $18.2 trillion increase in US Household Net Worth during 2021. This was the third consecutive year of record highs, an unfathomable outcome when the pandemic first hit in early 2020.

https://twitter.com/charliebilello?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor


8. Where Do Homeowners Stay in Their Homes the Longest?

Across the nation, people are staying in their homes for less time than they did even a year ago.

By Michael Kolomatsky

With about half the number of homes available on the market as there were two years ago, many frustrated buyers are wondering when more owners will be ready to sell. A new study by Redfin shows that it may be starting to happen — although homeowners are still staying in their homes much longer than they did a decade ago.

The study found that U.S. homeowner tenure dipped a bit in November 2021, when the typical homeowner had spent 13.2 years in their home — down from 13.5 years in November 2020, and the first drop in tenure length since 2012, when the average was 10.1 years. The recent dip may be the result of owners cashing in on high prices, and by the scores of remote workers opting to relocate during the pandemic.

But it’s unclear if the market is really at a turning point. In some areas, homes are being held far longer than the national average. In the Los Angeles market, homes have typically sold every 18 years, the longest homeowner tenure in the country; in fact, seven California locales are among the top 20 in which people stay put longest.

One reason could be a misunderstanding of the state’s Proposition 13. Under the law, property taxes are kept low for homeowners for as long as they stay in the home, and only rise again when they sell it, reflecting its higher value. Fearful their next purchase will come with much higher taxes, a growing population of older Californians has stayed in place, Redfin suggests. But changes to the law now allow those seniors to transfer their lower tax rate to a new home. When this is more widely understood, California homeowner tenure could slide.

Redfin’s study shows that Midwest cities — Chicago, St. Louis and Detroit among them — saw the greatest increases in tenure, while popular destinations like Las Vegas, Atlanta and Tampa, Fla., saw the greatest decreases. This week’s chart, based on the study, shows where people stay put the longest, as well as the local median sale prices.

Where Homeowners Stay Longest

Source: Redfin

By The New York Times

For weekly email updates on residential real estate news, sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @nytrealestate.

A version of this article appears in print on March 27, 2022, Se

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/24/realestate/where-do-homeowners-stay-in-their-homes-the-longest.html


9. PPP Fraud…Estimates Between $70-80B

The Biggest Fraud in American History-NBC News By Ken Dilanian and Laura Strickler

They bought Lamborghinis, Ferraris and Bentleys.

And Teslas, of course. Lots of Teslas.

Many who participated in what prosecutors are calling the largest fraud in U.S. history — the theft of hundreds of billions of dollars in taxpayer money intended to help those harmed by the coronavirus pandemic — couldn’t resist purchasing luxury automobiles. Also mansions, private jet flights and swanky vacations.

They came into their riches by participating in what experts say is the theft of as much as $80 billion — or about 10 percent — of the $800 billion handed out in a Covid relief plan known as the Paycheck Protection Program, or PPP. That’s on top of the $90 billion to $400 billion believed to have been stolen from the $900 billion Covid unemployment relief program — at least half taken by international fraudsters — as NBC News reported last year. And another $80 billion potentially pilfered from a separate Covid disaster relief program.

The prevalence of Covid relief fraud has been known for some time, but the enormous scope and its disturbing implications are only now becoming clear.

said Mustafa Qadiri, 38, of Irvine, Calif., used money from the Paycheck Protection Program to buy three cars that cost six figures apiece, including this 2011 Ferrari 458 Italia.U.S. Attorney’s Office, Los Angeles

Even if the highest estimates are inflated, the total fraud in all Covid relief funds amounts to a mind-boggling sum of taxpayer money that could rival the $579 billion in federal funds included in President Joe Biden’s massive 10-year infrastructure spending plan, according to prosecutors, government watchdogs and private experts who are trying to plug the leaks.

“Nothing like this has ever happened before,” said Matthew Schneider, a former U.S. attorney from Michigan who is now with Honigman LLP. “It is the biggest fraud in a generation.”

Most of the losses are considered unrecoverable, but there is still a chance to stanch the bleeding, because federal officials say $600 billion is still waiting to go out the door. The Biden administration imposed new verification rules last year that administration officials say appear to have made a difference in curbing fraud. But they acknowledge that programs in 2020 sacrificed security for speed, needlessly.

Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz, who oversees Covid relief spending, told “NBC Nightly News” anchor Lester Holt in an exclusive interview that Covid relief programs were structured in ways that made them ripe for plunder.

“The Small Business Administration, in sending that money out, basically said to people, ‘Apply and sign and tell us that you’re really entitled to the money,’” said Horowitz, the chair of the Pandemic Response Accountability Committee. “And, of course, for fraudsters, that’s an invitation. … What didn’t happen was even minimal checks to make sure that the money was getting to the right people at the right time.”

The criminal methodology varied depending on the program. The epic swindle of Covid unemployment relief has been carried out by individual criminals or organized crime groups using stolen identities to claim jobless benefits from state workforce agencies disbursing federal funds. Each identity could be worth up to $30,000 in benefits, Horowitz said.

The looting of the Paycheck Protection Program worked differently — and it could be far more lucrative. The program authorized banks and other financial institutions to make government-backed loans to businesses, loans that were to be forgiven if the companies spent the money on business expenses. Nearly 10 million such loans have already been forgiven. Many of the loans-turned-grants were for millions of dollars, public records show.

Experts say millions of borrowers inflated their numbers of employees or created companies out of whole cloth. For much of 2020, lenders did little to verify the applications, prosecutors and experts say, in part because Congress required the Small Business Administration, or SBA, which ran the program, to issue explicit guidance that in the interest of getting the money out fast, lenders “will be held harmless for borrowers’ failure to comply with program criteria.” The Government Accountability Office warned of fraud risk, but the program continued under that rule.

“The government spent approximately $800 billion and provided 21 million loans to individuals,” said Haywood Talcove, the CEO for government at LexisNexis Risk Solutions, which works with the government to verify identities.

No one is sure exactly how much was stolen. An academic paper released last year estimated at least $76 billion in potential fraud, and the authors said that was conservative.

The SBA’s inspector general has identified $78.1 billion in potentially fraudulent Economic Injury Disaster Loans, another Covid relief program for businesses. The Secret Service has its own estimate: $100 billion.

‘Biggest fraud in a generation’: The looting of the Covid relief program known as PPP (nbcnews.com)


10. The Psychology of Jury Selection

How jurors are vetted by psychologists. Lori Kinsella J.D., PsyD.

The study of forensic psychology involves the application of clinical specialties, research and experimentation in psychology to the legal arena. (1).

One of the most observable and public intersections of law and psychology is in jury selection and jury consulting. Lawyers hire private jury consulting firms to help them examine potential jurors for trials in both criminal and civil matters. Jury consultants are usually psychologists and sociologists who specialize in interviewing, examining and analyzing potential jurors to determine how a jury is likely to react to parties and their claims.

Psychological Examinations of Jurors

The psychological examination of a jury pool, a process called voir dire, is often done by the lawyers and judge in most cases. In some cases, jury consultants are hired by lawyers in high profile or complex litigation. The basic purpose of voir dire is to determine if any particular potential juror has biases which may prejudice his or her decisions as a juror. The questions for the jurors are designed to reveal if a juror would be fair and impartial. The jurors may be personally interviewed or they may be asked to complete juror questionnaires which are analyzed by psychologists (jury consultants) who assign ratings to inform the lawyers on which potential jurors are likely to be fair and which are not. The questions can examine a juror’s potential racial or religious bias, personal experiences, socio-economic status, personal history and outlook and many other factors.

In both civil and criminal cases, attorneys on both sides of the docket probe prospective jurors. Will that juror be more likely to align with one side of the case? Are they bias, prejudice, emotional, religious, liberal or conservative? Even body language and television viewing habits of jurors translates into more data to be factored in the jury selection process to weed out the ‘wrong’ type of juror.

Digital Investigations of Jurors

According to the American Bar Association lawyers and jury consultants now have a digital treasure trove of private information about any potential juror because 74 percent of all Americans have social networking profiles and Twitter processes over half a billion tweets per day (2). Social networking sites like Facebook have become a part of jury selection in the digital age. Lawyers can learn almost anything about jurors including their taste in movies, music, politics, education, hobbies and likes and dislikes. This type of digital inquiry has not been prohibited by law as of the date of this writing. However, the in depth digital investigation of potential jurors may eventually be prohibited as an invasion of privacy. For now, all potential jurors can be subjected to digital investigations.

Jurors Favor Attractive Defendants

A study investigating the biases of juries in criminal cases concluded that the attractiveness of a defendant can play a role in jury decisions on convictions and sentence recommendations. In this study (3), the jurors who participated were divided into two categories. Those who process information through their emotional filters and personal experiences and those who process information through objective and rational-based filters. The jurors who emotionally processed information were found to give lighter sentences to physically attractive defendants and harsher sentences and convictions to unattractive defendants. The study supports the conclusion that among the research participants, juror bias against unattractive defendants resulted in harsher conviction and sentencing outcomes.

Conclusion

The psychology of jury selection is complex because it involves the investigation of a potential juror’s mind and how they process information, their biases, personal experiences and histories, digital thumbprint, age, race, and many other factors. Finding a fair and impartial juror without prejudice is difficult. It involves the probing of minds and hearts. We are all entitled to be judged in a courtroom by a jury of our peers. This means it would be patently unfair to impanel a jury of all one race and gender to judge a defendant of a different race and gender. There are inherent biases presumed in such a case. Even when a jury is composed of a diverse group of men and women, the unseen psychological prejudices they may harbor, such as being bias against an unattractive defendant, are difficult to assess.

Our legal system relies on the good faith and genuine belief of jurors to be fair and impartial as well as the jury selection process to weed out bias and prejudice. In the end, lawyers on both sides of any case are entitled to examine a jury pool and weed out undesirables, this process works overall, with the help of expert psychologists who are skilled in assessment and analysis of a fair and impartial mind. The confluence of psychology and the law in the jury selection process has proven benefits to eliminate unfair bias and implement fair and impartial jury verdicts.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/forensic-files/202203/the-psychology-jury-selection

Topley’s Top 10 – March 29, 2022

1. U.S. Treasury Yield Breaking Above Downtrend Going Back to Mid-1980’s

Jim Reid Deutsche Bank

Today’s chart is one I’ve seen many times over the last several years, showing the downward trend channel in 10yr US Treasury yields since the mid-1980s.

As we breach the top of the trend line, will we be able to officially retire it soon or will we bounce back down into the long-term channel?

Clearly such a channel can’t go on forever unless you’re of the opinion that we will consistently see negative nominal US yields in the latter part of this decade. So the near 40-year trendline will almost certainly have to end in the next few years regardless, but the recent spike in yields raises the prospect of it doing so imminently.

For this, much will depend on inflation and the Fed’s reaction to it. As I wrote in my EMR this morning, given just how far the Fed is behind the curve it’s fair to say that if the post-GFC cycle could be erased from people’s memory banks, then I think markets might be pricing 300-400bps of hikes this year. However the fact that the last decade was so moribund from an activity and inflation point of view means that markets still refuse to believe the Fed can get very far in this cycle. The market is collectively anchored to the trends of the last cycle. However remember that before the FOMC 9 months ago in June 2021 the Fed and the market were hardly pricing in any rate moves until 2024, and only 3 hikes for 2022 as recently as the start of this year. Overall there has been a constant misunderstanding of this cycle which is totally different to the last. Clearly this view is changing but the c.240bps of total hikes now priced in for 2022 still isn’t a huge year of tightening historically.


2. Two Year Treasury Yields Surge….5s to 30s Invert

Bloomberg-Yields on two-year Treasuries surged as much as 14 basis points to 2.41% to lead increases across the curve, as traders priced in two full percentage points of Fed increases over the remainder of this year. Yields on five-year notes rose above those on 30-year bonds, suggesting some investors anticipate an economic downturn and perhaps even a recession.

Global Bond Rout Deepens on Fear Rate Hikes Will Stoke Recession-By

Anchalee Worrachate and

Garfield Clinton Reynolds

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-27/global-bond-rout-sends-australian-yields-to-highest-since-2014?srnd=premium&sref=GGda9y2L


3. As Rates Rise…U.S. Dollar Gets Stronger..

www.stockcharts.com


4. 5 Years in a Row and 7 of Last 10 Years…Venture Capital Leads Returns Among Alternative Investments


5. Record Quarter for Commodities

Commodities: It’s been quite a quarter for commodities.

Source: BofA Global Research; @MikeZaccardi

From the Daily Shot Blog https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-march-28th-2022/


6. S&P Rolling One-Year Frequency of Returns

From Michael Batnick Irrelevant Investor Blog

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2022/03/28/talk-your-book-protecting-the-downside/


7. Emerging Market Bonds Worst Start in 26 Years

www.stockcharts.com


8. Streaming vs. Cable

Barrons

Barrons By

Nicholas Jasinski  https://www.barrons.com/articles/netflix-stock-disney-paramount-streaming-51648171934?mod=past_editions’


9. Top Home Price Gains by State

From The  Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter


10. I leave 30% of my day unscheduled, and it’s done wonders for my creativity and focus. Here’s how it works.

  • Michael Thompson is a writer and leadership and communication strategist.
  • He blocks off two hours each day to take a walk, do a hobby, or network with peers. 
  • Leaving 30% of his workday unscheduled has improved his creativity and focus, he says.

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For decades, Dan Sullivan, founder of popular business coaching program “The Strategic Coach,” says he’s taken off 155 days a year entirely from work. 

On the 210 days he does work, he says his main strategy to stay focused on the right tasks is to leave 30% of his day unscheduled. Creating this window each day allows time to focus on growth through new opportunities and ideas, rather than spending 100% of your day on your current workload, Sullivan says.

When I first came across this advice three years ago, like a lot of things that sound nice in principle, I thought it wasn’t possible. At the time, my wife was commuting to her office an hour away from home and I was struggling to juggle our two young kids with my own work. I thought for sure leaving roughly two hours unscheduled would hamper my productivity, but I was wrong.

By sticking to Sullivan’s advice and scheduling my free time first, within three months I’d made the turn from an aspiring creative to a decently paid one, despite being a relative newbie to the online writing and coaching world. Here’s what following the 30% rule helps me accomplish.

1. I can create more ‘Eureka’ moments

It’s not a coincidence that a lot of people come up with their best ideas outside of the office. More often than not, the key to getting my ideas to connect is giving them room to breathe. Since adopting the 30% rule, every day from 12 p.m. to 2 p.m. I shut down my computer and do just that. I use this window to get outside of the house for a midday walk or run, spend time studying Spanish, go grocery shopping, or simply allow myself to zone out.

By creating this space, I’ve been able to come up with a steady stream of ideas for bi-weekly articles over the last three years. I can’t count the number of times I’ve thought of the perfect one-liner for a client’s project or untied a mental knot while out for a midday walk. When I get back to work at 2 p.m., I feel refreshed and ready to bring the same level of focus to my afternoons as I do my mornings.

2.  I have time to tend to my network

In addition to getting out of the house, I also use this unscheduled time to reach out to new people or catch up with old friends. This may sound basic, but it saved me financially when COVID-19 came on the scene. Like a lot of people, I lost half of my work contracts overnight. But thanks to my proactive habit of reaching out to people and maintaining good connections, people in my network passed along new opportunities which helped me replace what was canceled.

Prior to implementing the 30% rule, I had a tendency to view networking as an “if time allows” activity. Proactively carving out time to stay in contact with people opened my eyes very quickly to the reality that strong networks are much easier to maintain when done consistently. We all know the importance of networking — often, the opportunities we’re given are a direct reflection of the company we keep.

It doesn’t have to be a constant back and forth — maintaining your network can be as simple as sending a quick email or leaving a short voicemail letting someone know you’re thinking about them.

3. I’ve improved my ability to prioritize

Having a million things running through your mind is the fastest way to sabotage your primary goals.

Treating my unscheduled time as close to non-negotiable as possible — combined with the time-restraint strategy of less time to work — forced me to really think about which tasks truly move my work forward and helped me weed out those that don’t.

One of the ways I do this is by following Sullivan’s advice of capping my daily to-do list at three tasks. Every evening, before wrapping up work, I take 10 minutes to map out my to-dos for the following day and then I write them down on individual note cards. This allows me to start each morning with clarity. Seeing the stack of completed tasks also reminds me that even on days when I feel like I’m not doing enough, I absolutely am.

How to get the 30% rule to work for you

The key to making the 30% rule work is breaking out your calendar at the end of each week  and proactively scheduling time for yourself for the upcoming week first  —  before getting bombarded with requests from other people.

I’m at my best when working in three-hour time blocks and for the entirety of 2022, I have a two-hour break in the middle of the day written into my old-school calendar above my desk so it’s visible. If you work better in shorter time blocks, try carving out four 30-minute increments of space throughout your day and use it to change up your environment as much as possible by moving to a different room to work on a hobby, taking a walk outside, etc.

Following the 30% rule isn’t always easy —  there are days of course when either my kids or client deadlines bite into this time. But that’s the best part — since I already built “open” time into my schedule, I don’t have to stress or work late if I occasionally get thrown off course.

If you’re an entrepreneur or you’re working remotely and don’t have to be glued to your PC all day, give the 30% rule a shot. If you’re back in the office and working a 9-to-5, propose it to your manager or team — having schedule flexibility has been shown to increase job satisfaction and reduce work-related stress.

It took me a long time to learn that always being ‘on’ truly is the enemy of productivity. Now that I’ve experienced the benefits of scheduling downtime first, the idea of working more to accomplish less isn’t nearly as enticing as stepping away to allow the dots to better connect.

Michael Thompson is a communication strategist who assists individuals and organizations to grow their influence in the new world through the power of words. To learn more about his work, visit here and receive a free 12-step guide to become a more memorable storyteller and persuasive writer.

https://www.businessinsider.com/30-rule-unscheduled-time-improve-creativity-focus-at-work-2022-3

Topley’s Top 10 – March 28, 2022

1. Commodities Historical vs. S&P

Capital Group

https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/is-spike-commodity-prices-sustainable.html?sfid=1988901890&cid=80693875&et_cid=80693875&cgsrc=SFMC&alias=D-btn-LP-6-A1cta-Advisor


2. Where to Allocate in Case of Stagflation

Living with Stagflation: So you’ve decided to move on with your life and just “live with stagflation”. Here’s what history says about where to allocate…(n.b. past performance does not necessarily = future, etc)

Source: @AndreasSteno

From Callum Thomas Topdown Charts

https://www.topdowncharts.com/chartstorm


3. Household Allocation to Equities Historically Points to Tops in S&P

From Steve Blumenthal CMG Wealth   https://www.cmgwealth.com/ri-category/on-my-radar/


4. Industrial Sector Margins ..Rails Highest

(20) Stef ⚡️ (@dyankov91) / Twitter


5. Russia 35% of World Uranium


6. Country Performance Since Covid Low

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/country-performance-since-covid-low


7. RV Shipment Data Highest Ever

Zerohedge-New RV shipment data from the RV Industry Association’s (RVIA) February 2022 survey of manufacturers revealed demand for this time of year is at some of the highest levels ever.

RVIA said total RV shipments last month topped 53,722 units, an increase of 11.3% compared to the 48,286 units shipped during the same month last year. RV shipments jumped 13.6% through February versus the same point last year with 107,012 wholesale shipments.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rv-shipments-soar-record-time-year


8. Nearly half the country requires no permit to carry a concealed weapon — and it’s a growing trend

Source: Washington Post From Barry Ritholtz Blog https://ritholtz.com/2022/03/sunday-reads-266/


9. Contemporary Art Has Outperformed Stocks for 25 Years

In the 993 days since starting this newsletter, we’ve seen thousands of charts about investing. But few struck us like this one above.

When you see numbers like this, it’s easy to see why billionaires and hedge fund managers battle for paintings in auction houses across the globe.

Going once, going twice…

The heavyweights might duke it out for $100 million+ pieces, but you can harness the compounding magic of art with Masterworks for much less. This revolutionary platform lets you invest in art by legends like Picasso, Warhol, and Rothko—even if your last name isn’t Bezos.

Here’s their track record since 2019:

  • George Condo’s “Staring into Space”: +31.7% net IRR (2020-22)
  • Banksy’s “Mona Lisa”: +32% net IRR (2019-20)
  • Albert Oehlen’s “Doppelbild”: +33.8% net IRR (2020-21)

No wonder JP Morgan called art a “powerful financial asset.” With over 375,000 investors already signed up, demand is high — but Chartr Subscribers skip the waitlist.*

www.chartr.com


10. How to Become Truly Confident

By Jordan Harbinger | October 13, 2020 | 4 

Confidence is one of those game-changing qualities—like rapport, empathy and courage—that is both incredibly valuable and highly elusive. As soon as we “try” to be confident, we’ve already failed. As soon as we “act” more confident, we’re already pretending. Telling someone to “be more confident” is like telling someone to be taller. That’d be nice, but how?

The answer to that question requires a new approach to confidence—one that goes beyond the “fake it till you make it!” mentality, and moves toward something more authentic, more grounded and more holistic.

We need to get clear on what true confidence really looks like, so we can understand how it works, how to cultivate it and how to rediscover it when it wanes.

Most importantly, we need to approach confidence not as a fixed quality to be attained, but as a dynamic process to be engaged in throughout our lives—a process my team and I have been developing for more than 15 years, most recently through our live-training company, Six-Minute Networking.

So let’s start at the beginning and get a good handle on what confidence really is.

What Is Confidence, Exactly?

We might not always have a firm grasp of textbook confidence, but we know it when we see it. We know it because we feel it, and we know what it feels like to be around it. Which is one reason the definition of confidence can be so hard to pin down. Confidence is really an experience—both of ourselves and of other people.

We also know when we don’t feel it. In the presence of an insecure person—or, even more telling, a person pretending to be confident—we not only notice their lack of confidence, but also their shaky attempts to compensate for it.

Interestingly, when we’re in the company of an unconfident person, we often tend to feel unconfident ourselves. We struggle to organically connect, we begin second-guessing our words and choices, and we notice ourselves feeling uneasy, uncertain and unengaged.

Which is pretty fascinating if you think about it.

Confidence—and a lack of it—is one of those rare characteristics that is infectious. Lead with true confidence, and you’ll inspire it in other people. Betray a lack of confidence, however, and you’ll expose a similar lack in them. If you’ve ever spent time with a confident stranger at a cocktail party, or tried to bond with an insecure manager in a job interview, then you know how radically different these two qualities can make you feel.

But as we know, confidence is also a quality that can be affected, projected or faked. Deep insecurity can masquerade as confidence, as we often see with embattled politicians and troubled CEOs, struggling loved ones and nervous first dates. And experts continue to tell us that confidence can be “hacked,” “acquired” and “learned” if we just commit to talking, acting or looking a certain way.

Our confidence can also appear quite strong, only to crumble in the face of struggle, criticism or failure. In those moments, it seems like confidence is nothing more than a fleeting feeling, a passing belief in our own power, a temporary reprieve between periods of self-doubt.

So what is true confidence, really?

To put it simply, true confidence is a feeling of self-assurance that is grounded in an authentic experience of our own ability, perspective and sufficiency.

It’s a stable connection to the fact that we can do what we want to do, feel how we want to feel, and be who we want to be in this world.

It’s also a sense that we are enough—that we aren’t lacking in some fundamental sense that prevents us from navigating the world in a healthy, positive, productive way.

All of which, of course, are qualities we aspire to have. Confidence is an integral part of human psychology. With it, we feel engaged, purposeful, inspired. Without it, we feel rudderless, wary, fearful. Consciously or unconsciously, we know how important confidence really is.

Still, you probably know relatively unconfident people who manage to get ahead in life. You might believe that your own confidence is secondary to the quality of your work, your relationships and your overall personality. You might even suspect that confidence isn’t a quality to be trusted, given that it can be affected, inherited or “turned on” at a moment’s notice.

So it’s worth asking…

Why Does Confidence Matter?

It’s an excellent question. And while it might seem painfully obvious to those who are already interested in working at it, confidence actually does matter—for four key reasons.

1. Confidence is an amplifier of quality and success.

Contrary to the view of many self-help experts, confidence is not a proxy for quality, depth or character. It should not be an end in and of itself, and it will never compensate for good old-fashioned hard work. Even the most confident people need to be confident about something—themselves, their work, their identities—and confidence divorced from content will always fall apart sooner or later.

Instead, we think about true confidence as an essential part of our character and work.

It’s a layer to everything we do, say and put out into the world, from our work to our relationships, our opinions to our decisions. Confidence acts as fuel on the fire of whatever we touch. We still need a good fire—we will always need to do the work—but without the fuel, the fire can only grow so large. Look at any massive and consistent success—from Jay-Z to the iPad, Honey Nut Cheerios to Tesla, Michael Jordan to Walmart—and you’ll find a sense of confidence at its core.

Interestingly, many high performers resist this view of confidence. They believe that if their work is strong enough, if their skills are advanced enough, or if their personalities are likable enough, they won’t need confidence. They believe, in other words, that their strengths will speak for themselves. Which is true, of course. The question is: how well?

Ironically, it’s some of the most talented people in the world who dismiss the importance of confidence. In my experience—based on hundreds of interviews with top performers and years of coaching clients, corporations and the military—it’s precisely their talent that makes them so skeptical. How impressive would their work really be if it depended on something as vague as self-assurance? How would they feel about their talent if their success ultimately depended on personality?

These are worrying questions for people who have been trained their whole lives to value their skills and performance above all else.

But it’s not the case that these people completely lack confidence. What they have is contextual confidence. Within the narrow context of their specialty or world—coding, writing, statistical analysis, business development, team meetings—they actually do enjoy a certain degree of confidence. It’s a critical type of confidence that comes with time, dedication and expertise.

Outside of that context, however, they waver. They don’t have the kind of generalized confidence that infuses everything they do, in and around their work: the way they present their deliverables, the way they engage with different types of colleagues and partners, the way they navigate their careers in the bigger picture, and so on.

That lack of generalized confidence tends to make them double down on the areas in which they do feel confident. And so they remain in their secure confidence bubbles, focusing on the silos and tasks and roles where they feel most competent, which guarantees that they won’t tackle new skills and situations that would expose their lack of generalized confidence.

Nate, an immensely talented network architect at a cloud security company, recently attended our live training program. After years of exceptional work with little recognition and no major promotions, he decided it was finally time to seek some additional help.

Once he completed the training on relationship building, self-analysis and practical exercises, he told me why he had been dreading the process so much. He knew, subconsciously, that he had a profound weakness in his general confidence and that the better he became in his technical role, the less he wanted to work through any perceived deficiencies in his personality.

But the transformation was worth it. He entered the program as a quiet, self-effacing, generally avoidant personality with a gift for engineering. He left the program as an excited, gregarious, curious personality with a demonstrable passion for it.

A few months later, I received an email from Nate with a life update. After six weeks back at the office, his managers began visibly responding to his work in team meetings. Though it was always strong, they suddenly seemed to take notice of his contributions—no doubt because of the way he was now presenting it. Soon after, his colleagues also mentioned a change—not just in his technical role, but in his personal style, his excitement and his approachability. He was promoted to manager of his team ahead of a major rollout, which also helped secure two other job offers from competing companies.

As if by magic, Nate’s professional life had completely turned around. But it wasn’t magic. Just a couple months earlier, he had plateaued professionally by focusing exclusively on his deliverables. The moment he began working on himself, he created the exciting opportunities he always wanted. He had invested in confidence, which amplified his excellent work.

Stories like Nate’s are a reminder that confidence can be consciously cultivated. More importantly, they’re evidence that confidence matters. And it matters most when it’s developed in conjunction with hard work and meaningful substance.

Whether we like it or not, the quality of our work alone will never get us where we want to go. But when that quality links up with true confidence, our work takes on a new caliber and begins to resonate with people in a much more powerful way.

2. Confidence is essential to influence and leadership.

As we just saw, the success of our professional lives depends on both what we do and how we do it.

What we do is a matter of technical skill. How we do it is a function of confidence.

One of the most important aspects of that how is our degree of influence and the quality of our leadership. The impact we have on our work products, the control we exert in our organizations and the influence we have on our partners all require true confidence. These confidence-based skills are what separate technicians from managers, employees from leaders, and artisans from artists.

Selby, a producer at a major radio station, recently came to our program to work specifically on these skills. As she told us on her first day, she was a deeply shy person who was remarkable at her job. She spent her days booking celebrity guests, only to experience crippling anxiety when they arrived at the station. She loved her colleagues, but was devastated to learn that they regularly farmed out work to her knowing that she was incapable of saying no. And she hadn’t risen up through the ranks of the station, despite four years of consistently great work behind the scenes.

After graduating from the program, Selby went back to work. She continued the exercises we gave her and used them to improve her interactions with the high-profile people she met. With a handle on her fear of setting boundaries, she began telling her colleagues what she would and wouldn’t do and watched as the station’s productivity skyrocketed. As a result of these (and many other) tools and mindsets, she was promoted to manager of the entire station six months later. A year after that, she was given her own show.

The difference in Selby’s performance was not a function of talent or discipline. She didn’t become smarter, more skilled or more committed. She became connected to her confidence. And that confidence opened a window into a suite of skills—from delegation to politics, leadership to conversational banter—that had eluded her for years.

3. Confidence isn’t just about style. It’s also about substance.

Selby’s story is also a reminder that confidence and substance are intimately connected. While a lack of confidence in a typical person is always challenging, a lack of confidence in a truly capable person can be crippling.

Why?

Because an incongruence between the quality of your work and your level of confidence can actually amplify the deficiency.

Your work might perform well, but by succeeding, it will end up highlighting your insecurity even further. At the same time, your partners and colleagues will expect a degree of confidence that reflects how strong your work is and will be all the more disappointed when they find it missing.

Once people sense that gap, they’ll often begin to doubt whether the work is as strong as it first seemed. That, in turn, can make you doubt your judgment about your own work, creating a dangerous feedback loop. Insecurity will give rise to new feelings of doubt, fear and confusion, which will eventually creep into your choices. Your strong contextual confidence will begin to erode, and your weaker generalized confidence will start to infect it.

So these two types of confidence are actually closely related. As much as we want to believe otherwise, we can’t succeed without having both types of confidence, which are essential to creating and capitalizing on your work.

4. Confidence protects us.

In an increasingly complex and competitive world, confidence is one of the greatest weapons we can develop. At the same time, a lack of confidence is also one of our greatest vulnerabilities because it broadcasts to the world how susceptible we really are.

As we’re about to explore in more depth, confidence manifests in a number of highly visible ways: our body language, vocal tonality, verbal cues and micro-decisions. No matter how hard we try, we can’t really hide how we feel about ourselves. We broadcast our weaknesses wherever we go.

We wear our lack of confidence like a badge, and that badge unconsciously tells the world how to treat us.

Unfortunately, there will always be a segment of the population ready to capitalize on those weaknesses. In some cases, that vulnerability will invite trouble in relatively minor ways: a shifty cab driver offering us a ride off the meter, a gifted insurance salesman upselling us to a higher premium, a narcissistic friend dominating our time and energy. In other cases, that weakness will get us into deeper trouble: a predatory lender locking us into a dangerous loan, a manipulative family member controlling our happiness and resources, a power-hungry manager exploiting us in the workplace. Of course, the possibilities can get even more troubling.

If you take a moment to think back, you can probably remember a time you were taken advantage of in a moment of low confidence. That wasn’t an accident. It was your degree of confidence at the time that exposed you to that situation, and it was your relationship to your confidence that determined how well you handled it.

The outcome of that experience might have taught you a lesson and increased your confidence in the future. Or it might have confirmed what you subconsciously believe about yourself and left you vulnerable to a similar scenario down the road.

So in addition to enhancing our work and character, confidence also helps protect us, physically and emotionally. That’s why working on it matters so much. We aren’t just talking about style and appearances. We’re talking fundamentally about who we are, how we present ourselves in the world, and how the world will treat us in return.

Now that we have a handle on why confidence matters, let’s explore some practical principles and techniques for achieving it.

How Do I Become More Confident?

As we’ve discussed, confidence is a tough quality to pin down. Because it’s more of a dynamic experience than a static trait, it can be a difficult concept to teach.

In our experience, the best way to build confidence is to isolate the elements that comprise it—the behaviors, characteristics and mindsets that create true self-assurance. Then, we can put those pieces together in a way that creates true, lasting, generalized confidence.

Starting with…

1. Nonverbal communication.

As we just touched upon, confidence is expressed most profoundly through our bodies. No matter how well we speak, the way we feel about ourselves will always manifest in our posture, our gait, our hand movements and our facial features.

And because these cues are nonverbal—bypassing the more intellectual language centers in our brains—other people pick up on them viscerally and quickly. They receive a vivid snapshot of our inner confidence the moment we walk into a room.

If we enter a room standing up straight with our shoulders back, chins up and eyes engaged, then others will viscerally perceive us as confident. If we enter with our shoulders hunched, brows furrowed, and eyes shifty or staring at the floor, then they’ll viscerally perceive us as unconfident (if they notice us at all). And they make this judgment in microseconds—just as we do of them.

That’s why body language is such an important part of strong first impressions. We have to remember that people’s impressions are made when they see us, not when we first interact with them. Since we can’t control when that happens, we can’t just turn our confidence on when we think we need it. We need to internalize and embody it at every moment, so it becomes part of our observable presence wherever we go.

To do that, we recommend the doorway drill, a simple technique that will force you to check your body language whenever you walk through a door. The exercise is simple: Every time you approach a doorway, take a moment to stand up straight, pull your shoulders back, uncross your arms, and look up and ahead. These are the signals of positive body language, and they both reflect and reinforce confidence.

To help form that habit, we often tell our students to place post-it notes at eye level in their doorways at home and in the office. Every time they see a post-it, they remember that it’s a reminder to check their body language. After a week or two, the post-its become unnecessary. The visual cue creates a habit that lives in their bodies, and they automatically begin checking their body language whenever they walk through any doorway out in the world.

While body language might seem superficial—it is, after all, about how confidence appears on the “outside”—it’s actually very profound. Because while confidence informs body language, body language also has a powerful effect on building confidence. If we carry ourselves confidently, we teach our bodies to experience confidence. And the more confident we become, the more we reinforce the behavior to carry ourselves that way out in the world.

This is one of the beauties of body language work: Addressing the symptoms of confidence can actually influence the causes of it.

So commit to strong, positive body language and make a conscious effort to form habits that make your nonverbal communication automatic. Notice the body language that signals confidence in people you meet and consider internalizing those choices in yourself.

Most importantly, notice how your nonverbal communication changes the way you feel in social situations and how it changes the way other people feel about you. You’d be amazed how much of confidence depends on the things we don’t say.

2. Vocal tonality.

After body language, our voice is the most powerful organ of our confidence. Vocal tonality—which includes not just the physical quality of our voice, but our pitch, articulation, syntax, volume and intention—expresses and reinforces our innermost sense of self.

Vocal tonality is notoriously difficult to teach in an article, but we can touch on some key techniques for improving this dimension of confidence so that we can use it to enhance our self-assurance.

Speak in statements, not questions.

While you’re probably no stranger to the high rising terminal—also known as “upspeak,” or the tendency to end sentences with a rising pitch intonation, as if asking a question—you might not know how much of a role intonation plays in our confidence, both perceived and actual.

When we express statements as questions (“Hi, my name is Steven?”; “I’m applying for the content manager role in marketing?”; “I’ve been working here three years?”), we subtly communicate the doubt, uncertainty and informational disparity implied by a question. As a growing body of research now shows, upspeak can significantly diminish our hireability, compromise our chances for promotion, and affect the way people perceive our power and authority—which is unfortunate, since many of us adopt it out of politeness and a desire to be understood.

One of the best ways to smooth out the high rising terminal is to do a simple visualization exercise. Imagine a sentence as a hill, rising from the earth, peaking and then sloping back down. When we engage in upspeak, we stop at the top of that hill, leaving ourselves and the audience in a subtle state of uncertainty. As you speak, impose the image of the hill on your sentence and commit to coming back down the other side of the slope. That will help your audience rest in the declarative finish that communicates confidence and further increase your confidence the more you speak.

Articulate and enunciate.

The way we treat our words—literally, as they form in our mouth—is a signal and a function of confidence. To increase our confidence in conversation, we should also commit to articulating and enunciating our words more emphatically. When we do, we communicate confidence to the people around us. We also teach our bodies to become more confident the more we speak.

A helpful exercise here is to take a champagne cork (which is larger than a standard cork), place it in your mouth, and read a passage from a book with strong dramatic flair. Because you’ll be forced to work overtime as the cork resists your efforts, your mouth will become super articulate. On an emotional level, enunciating strongly will force you to commit to your words—to take them more seriously—which is, of course, a hallmark of confidence.

Avoid the use of filler words.

Filler words such as “like,” “um” and “so” also play a major role in confidence. And while we don’t believe you need to remove them entirely in order to be taken seriously—these words can actually make your speech friendlier, more colloquial and more organic if used properly—filler words tend to undermine our authority when they become a crutch.

In many cases, we use filler words to patch silences in conversation. (“So… yeah, I mean, what do think about the new, uh… the new project?”) We often do this because we’re subconsciously afraid that if we hand the reins over to the person we’re speaking with, we’ll lose control of the conversation or be responsible for any gaps. But as we know, confidence means trusting that our words and presence are enough to be compelling. It also means trusting that the other person can and should help carry a conversation. When we remove these types of filler words in conversation, we stop subtly buttressing our unconfident speech, and we signal to the other person that we trust in their confidence, too.

Of course, we also use filler words to qualify our speech. (“Well, I just feel that, like, there’s a better way to, you know, present this, uh, deliverable, so…”) Sometimes we do this strategically, but more often we do this subconsciously, which has a similar effect on our confidence—and the way people perceive it—as upspeak does. In a professional setting, filler words can have major implications in team meetings, salary negotiations and conflict resolution.

A helpful exercise to weed out filler words is to record yourself in conversation. You can use the voice memo app on your phone (or any old-school recording device) to record a meeting or your side of a conversation on the phone. Listen to the recording for a few minutes every day for a week and notice how often filler words creep into your everyday speech.

I then recommend going a step further and exporting the file to an audio editor (Audacity is an excellent free app) and editing out all of the filler words that pop up. While it might seem a bit obsessive, it’s actually one of the greatest ways to analyze your speech. I only noticed my own dependence on filler words after spending hours editing out the “ums” and “so’s” on my podcast, The Jordan Harbinger Show. Once I realized how much of a crutch these words had become, I caught myself before I used them and found my confidence growing exponentially.

With body language and vocal tonality under our belts, let’s turn now to the more profound psychological underpinnings of confidence.

3. Authentic vulnerability.

As much as experts argue that confidence can be affected, that kind of superficial confidence—built on acquired body language, forced vocal tonality, rehearsed social scripts, and so on—will never create true confidence because it will never be authentic.

Authenticity, at its core, is the quality of being fully yourself. Being authentic means being emotionally honest, clear about your experience of the world and free of pretense. It means responding organically to every moment of life—the positive and the negative—and not feeling the need to unnecessarily “pretend” about your feelings, beliefs or experiences in any way.

In everyday language, we call this quality being “real.” And when we meet someone “real,” we feel that we’re in the presence of something exceptional. The reason, of course, is that we’re in the presence of true confidence. We feel that we’re meeting ourselves—that is, our best selves.

Authenticity transforms normal insecurity into grounded confidence. While faked confidence hides insecurity, weakness and self-doubt, true authenticity owns and acknowledges these less pleasant experiences in a way that ultimately enhances our sense of self.

It’s a strange paradox. It’s also a very useful one.

But to acknowledge these parts of ourselves requires more than just authenticity. It requires vulnerability. It requires us to open up and be exposed—to be seen—as the people we really are.

When authenticity and vulnerability link up—when we become organically and honestly open to sharing our true experiences, even when those experiences make us seem insecure—they actually create true confidence.

Why?

In short, because honesty and openness are the raw stuff of true confidence.

By allowing people to see who we really are, we stop offering a proxy version of ourselves to hide the aspects of our personalities we’d rather not show. And by embracing who we really are, we also relinquish control over how other people might perceive us—which, if you think about it, is a classic hallmark of insecurity.

In other words, we don’t become confident by never feeling insecure. We become confident by dropping the need to hide our insecurity in the first place.

It took me years to realize that we don’t need to always feel confident to be confident. And we don’t need to act confident to appear confident. All we need to do is respond authentically to our experiences, and share those experiences—in the appropriate amounts, in appropriate ways, in appropriate contexts—even (and, ironically enough, especially!) when they reveal our lack of confidence. Despite what we’ve been told, vulnerability isn’t weakness—it’s true strength.

This is a principle that the world’s greatest athletes, most successful entrepreneurs and most prolific artists understand: the alchemical power of authentic vulnerability. As Kobe Bryant famously said, “I have self-doubt. I have insecurity. I have fear of failure … We all have self-doubt. You don’t deny it, but you also don’t capitulate to it. You embrace it.”

By embracing it, Bryant managed to authentically acknowledge and vulnerably admit to his insecurity, self-doubt and fear of failure, which only enhanced his grounded sense of self.

That possibility is open to every single one of us.

A few weeks ago, I was invited to a dinner party for a bunch of broadcasters and media folks. The room was filled with smart, talented, ambitious people, and none of us knew one another. At dinner, I was seated next to a quiet guy who didn’t say much at first. As we often do in these cases, I assumed that he either wasn’t very friendly or was struggling with his social confidence. After a few minutes of conversation, however, he said something that took me by surprise.

“I’m kind of nervous to be around all these new people,” he confessed with a shy smile. “I’m used to producing my show alone in my house, and I really didn’t feel like going out tonight, but I forced myself to come and make some new friends.”

In an instant, my entire perception of this person had changed.

He was still exhibiting the same unconfident behaviors, but by unabashedly owning and sharing them, he shifted my perception from “unfriendly” to “human,” from “nervously unconfident” to “authentically vulnerable.” What he did, really, was offer me a window into his experience, and that experience was deeply honest.

That gave me permission to tell him that that I was a little overwhelmed, too, and just like that, we were bonding over our shared experience of the evening. He ended up being my favorite person at that dinner party, and we’re still good friends to this day.

So as you move through your life, make a conscious effort to commit to authentic vulnerability. At the same time, avoid the trap of inauthentic vulnerability—such as oversharing, strategic revelations and inappropriately personal stories—which are really just another way of simulating confidence.

Notice what this mindset does to your sense of self. Notice how confidence and insecurity are totally compatible, as long as you drop the impulse to self-protect.

Most importantly, notice that you cannot be confident without acknowledging your true experience moment to moment. That is a profound inner shift that goes deeper than superficial behaviors. It’s precisely the raw stuff of trust, rapport and relationship building—key skills that thrive on authentic confidence.

4. A process-oriented mindset.

By now you might have noticed an underlying theme in our approach to confidence.

Whereas popular self-help usually treats confidence as a static, goal-oriented, binary quality—basically, you either have it or you don’t—true confidence is, in fact, a process. It ebbs and flows. It accelerates and decelerates. It takes hits and has to recover. And it’s always evolving over the course of our lives as we take on new situations, challenges and goals.

Thinking about confidence as a process, rather than an end in and of itself, opens us up to a much healthier relationship to our own self-esteem.

We no longer believe that we must be confident one hundred percent of the time in order to be effective. We stop beating ourselves up for having moments of confusion, insecurity or self-doubt, which are perfectly normal parts of a healthy ego. And we don’t buy into the notion that if we just look or act or behave a certain way, confidence will magically appear.

Most importantly, we avoid falling into the trap of thinking we can develop “unshakable confidence.”

Unshakable confidence is a myth, and when you see it, you can bet that there’s some insecurity being protected beneath the surface. Confidence that can be shaken isn’t insecurity or weakness; it’s a sign that you can work through setbacks, criticism and growth. Which, if you think about it, is the whole point of having confidence in the first place!

Process-oriented confidence is the opposite of the “fake it till you make it” philosophy.

While the “fake it till you make it” approach suggests we should pretend our way toward true confidence, the process-oriented approach suggests we should become our way toward true confidence.

And while “faking it” does play a small role in confidence—for example, inviting confidence into your body using the nonverbal communication and vocal tonality exercises we mentioned earlier—it will never build true confidence. One way or another, simulating confidence will always create new problems.

It’s worth discussing a few of the most common, so we understand the risks of inauthentic confidence.

For one thing, faking it till we make it creates an inauthentic self—the supposedly “confident” person— which creates a division between the person you really are and the person you’re pretending to be. At best, we become two insecure people: the true self desperate for confidence, and the false self grasping at confidence in order to hide the true self.

As a result, that false self creates new feelings of fraudulence and self-doubt that will, sooner or later, betray you when you need your confidence the most. (This, in a nutshell, is impostor syndrome.) Eventually, one of two things will happen. Either your false self will break down, revealing the unaddressed insecurities lurking beneath. Or it will grow stronger and stronger, moving you further and further away from a healthy and secure sense of self.

The entire act of faking confidence will also become exhausting, confusing and alienating, as keeping up appearances becomes your primary objective. The fear of being exposed as less than confident will only grow. That in turn will make you double down on faking it in order to protect the false self, which will further increase the cost of being exposed—a truly vicious cycle.

For all these reasons, we at Six-Minute Networking don’t advocate for the “fake it till you make it” approach. Instead of acquiring confidence by building a new self, we prefer to work with our students to develop confidence by being their true selves. We then give them exercises, principles and mindsets that help them develop more and more authentic confidence. Anything else is a short-term fix, an unreliable hack and a recipe for even deeper insecurity.

A process-oriented approach means letting go of the impulse to pretend that we’re confident when we’re not. It also means accepting that our confidence will take hits from time to time. If we authentically acknowledge when our confidence takes a hit, then we put ourselves in a position to rediscover it—not by faking our way back into confidence, but by doing the work required to rebuild it. In practical terms, that means putting time into our craft, investing in new skills, repairing relationships, sticking with difficult goals, and—most importantly—being patient as our confidence steadily evolves.

That’s the stuff of true and authentic confidence. That’s how we can work on confidence without compromising our identities and values. That’s how we survive when our confidence takes a hit, and how we can actually enhance our self-assurance when we struggle. That’s how we become truly confident, by committing to the life-changing process of simply being ourselves.

https://www.success.com/the-art-of-true-confidence/

Jordan Harbinger

Articles

Jordan Harbinger hosts The Jordan Harbinger Show, where he deconstructs the playbooks of the most successful people on earth and shares their strategies, perspectives and insights with the rest of us. He’s also the co-founder of Six-Minute Networking, a training company that offers workshops on nonverbal communication, persuasion and influence to corporate and military organizations.

Topley’s Top 10 – March 25, 2022

1.5 Out of 6 Days 1%+ Return….What happens next?

In the table below we have aggregated forward returns for the prior 4 occurrences to see how the index faired following a period in which 5 out of 6 days were north of 1%. The last time the index saw this occur was in November of 2020, while each of the other three dates followed significant downturns in the market. Looking at the forward returns, we observed that 1-week later the index pushed higher on average, while 2-weeks later the index appeared to pullback slightly in 2 out of the 4 occurrences. Looking out 1-month and further returns were positive on average and generally positive on individual occurrences, except for 3-months following the October 1974 date. 6- and 12-months out, SPX gained 16.97% and 26.67% on average lending one to think that the long-term outlook is positive following 5 out of 6 days being north of 1%. While we don’t know for sure we could see the index move higher from here, the historical tendency is nothing to be ignored.    

https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright


2. Top 100 Corporate Pensions Most Funded Since 2008

Zerohedge blog

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-retro-fitted-narratives-nomura-warns-equities-are-still-flows-positioning-story


3. Netflix and Disney have Given Up Nearly All of their Pandemic Gains

 

Barrons

https://www.barrons.com


 4. Fertilizer Price Index Up 3x…Breaks Out to 20 Year Highs

Commodities:  Next, fertilizer prices and shares of companies in that sector have been surging.

Source: @AndreasSteno

The Daily Shot https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-march-23rd-2022/


5. With Huge Spike in Used Car Prices….Here is Perspective of Prices Since 1980

Jack Ablin Cresset–The price of a new automobile, adjusted for inflation, is more than 43 per cent cheaper than it was in 1980, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Services costs, for work that generally couldn’t be outsourced, rose more than 26 per cent relative to inflation over the same period. The favorable blend of restrained inflation and higher productivity helped lower America’s inflation rate from a whopping 12.5 per cent at the end of 1980, to a scant 1.4 per cent by 2020. Today’s 7.9 per cent inflation rate is the highest reading since the early 1980s.

Graph 3, Market Update, 03.15.2022

https://cressetcapital.com/post/globalization-40-years-on-adjustment-not-reversal/


6. Poll of 132 Oil and Gas Firms….Why are you restraining growth?

https://twitter.com/JosephPolitano


7. Canada Increasing LNG Output by 300,000 Barrells …Canada has Cleanest LNG


8. Large Investors Own 6% of U.S. Homes….Small Investors 27%…..Traditional Homeowners 67%

Large investors (own 10+ homes) purchased 6% of the homes in the country in January.
Small investors (<10 homes) purchased 27%.
Owner occupants purchased 67%.
The total investor share (33%) is a 5% larger market share than the average over the last decade.

No alternative text description for this image

https://www.linkedin.com/in/johnburns7/


9. Rising Rents Huge Component of Inflation.

Pew Research

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/03/23/key-facts-about-housing-affordability-in-the-u-s/ft_22-03-23_housingaffordability_2a/


10. How to Decide What to Work On

Working hard all day doesn’t matter if it’s on the wrong tasks. The most critical factor in your productivity is what you decide to work on.

The question of what to work on is under-discussed. There’s plenty of advice on getting work done: setting up good habits, creating productivity systems, project management and planning. Yet, there’s relative silence for the crucial decision of which projects to pursue.

Choosing what to work on is hard because you can’t know in advance how any project will turn out. If you knew what perspective was most worthwhile, the right choice would be obvious. It would simply be a matter of doing the work. But these choices exist outside of any particular vantage point. We don’t have this information, and we have to choose anyway.

Ruling Out, Ruling In

A fundamental distinction is between having too many ideas or too few.

Too many ideas creates the problem of prioritization. You need to find reasons to disqualify projects. Evaluate your current activities and cull those that don’t make the cut.

Too few ideas can leave you feeling stuck. You want things to be better, but nothing pops out as worth pursuing. As a result, you put half-hearted efforts into tasks you’re not sure will work.

The “right” quantity of ideas isn’t a given. Instead, it’s a mental threshold for what’s worth pursuing. Dialing it up forces you to focus, and dialing it down lets you explore more options.  Plans often generate ongoing or future commitments. Thus, there’s often a lag between when you realize your threshold is off and when you can adjust it. Whether you’re set too far in one direction may feel obvious, even as you struggle to change it.

Both reason and intuition factor into your settings here. Feeling burned out or bored can cause you to adjust. But so can looking at your calendar and realizing, actually no, you can’t take on another client.

Coming Up With Ideas

The origin of ideas often seems mysterious. How can you force yourself to have a creative spark?

Except, in practice, most ideas—even groundbreaking ones—tend to be derivative or incremental. Even ideas that look original usually start out as a permutation on something already extant. Given background and context, even the most radical suggestions look like incremental steps.

This suggests that the best way to have better ideas is to expose yourself to more ideas. Which ideas? The ones used by people who are accomplishing things in roughly the direction you’d like to go.

Find people who are achieving the sorts of success you’d like for yourself then ask what type of projects they pursue. If you can extract the general idea behind these projects, and why they worked, you’ll narrow the space of possibilities considerably.

Making the Choice

A threshold for action is a crude way for filtering your projects. Advice to “do less” or “do more” misses the crux of the issue. Which efforts should you drop? Which ones should you undertake?

Having adjusted your threshold, and hopefully immersed yourself in a range of possible idea templates, now you need to cross over from a notion to a commitment.

A commitment can come from either direction. You can lower your threshold for action, generate a new idea and decide to pursue it. Or you can tighten your standards and commit to focusing on a pursuit you are already engaged in. Either way, the decision remains.

I find it useful to separate deciding from executing. The act of deciding needs to be realistic, perhaps even somewhat pessimistic. Executing that decision needs an almost irrational confidence and headstrong spirit. Failure to separate the two tends to result in impulsive choices and irresolute action.

For instance, the decision to start a business needs to be clear-eyed about the risks, your plan, and your odds of success. However, once you start that business, you need to be zealously committed to doing everything you can to make it work.

One way to help manage these two conflicting mental states is to separate them in time. Make a decision, and don’t let yourself change it for a month. The delay forces you to stop second-guessing yourself when you need to work. The nearby offramp helps you avoid worrying that you’re committing indefinitely to a potentially ruinous choice.

Finding a Path and Walking It

Much of life boils down to figuring out a path for yourself and then getting yourself to actually walk it.

It’s easy to dismiss either half of the problem. If the path seems obvious, you might think everyone who fails to walk it is simply lazy. Or perhaps you can’t find the path, so it seems everyone walking forward is a delusional striver.

But both halves of the problem interact. We often fail to stick to our plans because we’re not confident in our chosen path. And we fail to find paths forward because we don’t try enough things to find our footing.

Decision and action are always combined. The challenge is taking the next step.

Scott Young https://www.scotthyoung.com/blog/

Topley’s Top 10 – March 22, 2022

1. S&P Gains Last Week are Historically Bullish Going Forward

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading

History was made last week, LPL notes – For only the 5th time ever, the S&P 500 gained at least 1% for 4 consecutive days.  This rare occurrence is also quite bullish, as a year later it has been up more than 20% every single time with an average gain of 28.0%.


2. Index Performance After 15 Worst Starts to Calendar Year

https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright


3. China Internet Stock Crash 3x Faster than 1999 U.S. Tech Bubble

@Charlie Bilello After its peak in March 2000, the Nasdaq composite fell 78% to its low in October 2002. That took 31 months. From its high in February 2021 to its low last week, the China Internet ETF $KWEB fell 79% in just 13 months.

​Powered by YCharts​

The rapid decline pushed valuation multiples down across the board, with Alibaba ($BABA) trading at the same price to sales ratio (1.6x) as Campbell Soup ($CPB).


4. German PPI (inflation) 26.5%

Jim Reid-Deutsche Bank

German PPI came out this morning at a 25.9% YoY level. Using long-term data spliced from various sources, this is the highest since the aftermath of WWII and on par with the highest peacetime levels on record. This time last year it was still just under 2%!

Although energy makes up just over the half of the total, even PPI ex-Energy is now at 12.4% YoY. For context in the 1970s, overall PPI didn’t get above 15% YoY.

One of the most fascinating accounts of the 1970s I read around this time last year was that of the Fed by ex-staffer and famous economist Stephen Roach. When energy spiked, the Chair Arthur Burns asked his staffers to devise an ex-energy inflation series and was comforted that this measure showed inflation was more contained. His view was that this energy spike had nothing to do with monetary policy. But soon he had to ask for another basket to be created ex food and energy. Again he was relatively calm at the lack of inflation elsewhere and believed food price rises were more to do with an El Nino. This stripping out continued until less than a third of the basket was left and eventually the Fed had to admit that inflation was broad based as even this stripped-out inflation series was in double digits.

So maybe there is little the Fed and the ECB can do about energy costs, but it’s worth remembering that the real central bank rates in both regions are massively negative and at their lowest post-WWII in the former, and clearly the lowest (by a long, long way) on record for the ECB. So are they pouring fuel on a fire?


5. Food Price Index hit record high in February, UN agency reports

Nominal and Real Terms New Highs

Global food prices reached an all-time high in February, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported on Friday.

The Food Price Index, which tracks the international prices of a items such as vegetable oils and dairy products, averaged 140.7 points last month, or nearly four per cent up from January.

This is also 24.1 per cent over the level a year earlier and 3.1 points higher than in February 2011.

Factors behind food inflation 

“Concerns over crop conditions and adequate export availabilities explain only a part of the current global food price increases. A much bigger push for food price inflation comes from outside food production, particularly the energy, fertilizer and feed sectors,” said FAO economist Upali Galketi Aratchilage.

“All these factors tend to squeeze profit margins of food producers, discouraging them from investing and expanding production.”

As the Food Price Index measures average prices over the month, the February reading only partly incorporates market effects stemming from the conflict in Ukraine.

Rise in demand 

The overall rise last month was driven by an 8.5 per cent increase in the FAO Vegetable Oils Price Index, a new record high.

This was mostly due to sustained global import demand, which coincided with a few supply-side factors, such as lower soybean production prospects in South America.

The Dairy Price Index averaged 6.4 per cent higher in February than January, supported by lower-than-expected milk supplies in Western Europe and Oceania, as well as persistent import demand, especially from North Asia and the Middle East.

Last month, the Cereal Price Index increased 3.0 per cent over January. Contributing factors  included rising quotations for maize and other coarse grains, caused by continued concerns over crop conditions in South America, uncertainty about maize exports from Ukraine, and rising wheat export prices.

Strong global import demand contributed to the 1.1 per cent rise in the Meat Price Index. Other factors included tight supplies of slaughter-ready cattle in Brazil and a high demand for herd rebuilding in Australia.

The FAO Sugar Price Index declined by nearly two per cent amid favourable production prospects in India, Thailand and other major exporters, as well as improved growing conditions in Brazil.

Cereal forecast

FAO has also published a preliminary forecast that shows worldwide cereal output is on course to increase to 790 million tonnes this year.

Anticipated high yields and extensive planting in North America and Asia, should offset a likely slight decrease in the European Union and the adverse impact of drought conditions on crops in some of the North African countries.

The agency has updated its forecast for world cereal production in 2021, which is now pegged at 2,796 million tonnes, a 0.7 percent increase from the year before.

The forecast for world trade in cereals was also raised to 484 million tonnes, up nearly one per cent from the 2020/2021 level. The forecast does not assume potential impacts from the conflict in Ukraine, and FAO is closely monitoring the developments and will assess impacts in due course.

Fears for food security 

Relatedly, the head of the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) has highlighted how the crisis in Ukraine could impact global food security. 

IFAD President Gilbert F. Houngbo said continuation of the conflict, which is already a tragedy for those directly involved, will be catastrophic for the entire world, particularly for people already struggling to feed their families.

He warned that the fighting could limit the world’s supply of staple crops like wheat, corn and sunflower oil, resulting in skyrocketing food prices and hunger. This could jeopardize global food security and heighten geopolitical tensions.

“This area of the Black Sea plays a major role in the global food system, exporting at least 12 percent of the food calories traded in the world,” said Mr. Houngbo.

“Forty percent of wheat and corn exports from Ukraine go to the Middle East and Africa, which are already grappling with hunger issues, and where further food shortages or price increases could stoke social unrest.”

https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/03/1113332#:~:text=The%20Food%20Price%20Index%2C%20which,per%20cent%20up%20from%20January.&text=This%20is%20also%2024.1%20per,higher%20than%20in%20February%202011.


6. Corn and Wheat ETFs


7. Farm Equipment Stocks

Deere New Highs  after 1 year sideways

CAT still below May 21 highs

www.stockcharts.com


8. Utilities Stocks Break Out to New Highs

This chart shows strength of utilities vs. AGG (bond index)

www.stockcharts.com


9. Manhattan’s Third-Largest Hotel To Sell At Staggering Loss

ZEROHEDGE BY TYLER DURDEN By Ciara Long of BisNow.com,

One of the largest hotels in New York City will trade at a massive loss, an ominous sign for the owners of Manhattan’s big hospitality properties.

Sheraton New York Times Square Hotel

Host Hotels & Resorts has agreed to sell its Sheraton New York Times Square hotel for $365M, Real Estate Alert reported, less than half the $738M it paid for the 1,780-room property in 2006.

Host, the largest U.S. hotel real estate investment trust, is under contract to sell the property to MCR Hotels, one of the most active buyers of New York City hotel properties since the onset of the pandemic. The sale is the city’s largest hospitality trade in over two years. The 51-story hotel is New York City’s third-largest by room count.

Host was struggling to sell the property at the price it purchased the hotel for long before the pandemic, asking for $550M in 2018, according to REA. In 2020, Host admitted that the Times Square Sheraton’s value had sunk even lower, to $495M.

The Times Square Sheraton sale adds Host to the list of several NYC hotel owners to sell their properties at a discount. Hotels in the city have yet to return to their pre-coronavirus occupancy rates, and the omicron wave in December and January suppressed tourism’s nascent return to NYC.

The hotel’s new owner, MCR, is the fourth-largest hotel owner-operator in the U.S. and has been making aggressive purchases in major cities over the past year, including Marriott, Hilton and Hampton Inn hotel branches across the country. Several of its 2021 purchases were concentrated in Texas, where it bought 11 properties: three in Dallas, three in Houston and five in Fort Worth, according to releases from the company.

But MCR also made two notable NYC purchases in 2021, The Real Deal reports. It joined with Island Capital and Three Wall Capital to acquire the Lexington Hotel at 511 Lexington Ave. for $185M, and it bought the Royalton Hotel at 60 West 37th St. for $42M. Both sales were below the price paid by previous owners.

MCR is also the owner of the Ink 48 Hotel and the High Line Hotel, which were ranked among NYC’s top 20 hotel choices by Condé Nast Traveler’s Readers Choice Awards last year.

= https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/manhattans-third-largest-hotel-sell-staggering-loss


10. The 3 Elements of Trust

by Jack Zenger and Joseph Folkman

Summary.   As a leader, you want the people in your organization to trust you. And with good reason. In our coaching with leaders, we often see that trust is a leading indicator of whether others evaluate them positively or negatively. But how to create that trust, or perhaps…more

As a leader, you want the people in your organization to trust you. And with good reason. In our coaching with leaders, we often see that trust is a leading indicator of whether others evaluate them positively or negatively. But creating that trust or, perhaps more importantly, reestablishing it when you’ve lost it isn’t always that straightforward.

Fortunately, by looking at data from the 360 assessments of 87,000 leaders, we were able to identify three key clusters of items that are often the foundation for trust. We looked for correlations between the trust rating and all other items in the assessment and after selecting the 15 highest correlations, we performed a factor analysis that revealed these three elements. Further analysis showed that the majority of the variability in trust ratings could be explained by these three elements.

The Three Elements of Trust

By understanding the behaviors that underlie trust, leaders are better able to elevate the level of trust that others feel toward them. Here are the three elements.

Positive Relationships. Trust is in part based on the extent to which a leader is able to create positive relationships with other people and groups. To instill trust a leader must:

  • Stay in touch on the issues and concerns of others.
  • Balance results with concern for others.
  • Generate cooperation between others.
  • Resolve conflict with others.
  • Give honest feedback in a helpful way.

Good Judgement/Expertise. Another factor in whether people trust a leader is the extent to which a leader is well-informed and knowledgeable. They must understand the technical aspects of the work as well as have a depth of experience. This means:

  • They use good judgement when making decisions.
  • Others trust their ideas and opinions.
  • Others seek after their opinions.
  • Their knowledge and expertise make an important contribution to achieving results.
  • Can anticipate and respond quickly to problems.

Consistency. The final element of trust is the extent to which leaders walk their talk and do what they say they will do. People rate a leader high in trust if they:

  • Are a role model and set a good example.
  • Walk the talk.
  • Honor commitments and keep promises.
  • Follow through on commitments.
  • Are willing to go above and beyond what needs to be done.

We wanted to understand how these three elements interacted to create the likelihood that people would trust a leader. We created three indices for each element and since we had such a large dataset, we experimented with how performance on each of the dimensions impacted the overall trust score. In our study we found that if a leader scored at or above the 60th percentile on all three factors, their overall trust score was at the 80th percentile.

We compared high scores (above 60th percentile) and low scores (below the 40th percentile) to examine the impact these had on the three elements that enabled trust. Note that these levels are not extremely high or low. Basically, they are 10 percentile points above and below the norm. This is important because it means that being just above average on these skills can have a profound positive effect and, conversely, just being below average can destroy trust.

We also found that level of trust is highly correlated with how people rate a leader’s overall leadership effectiveness. It has the strongest impact on the direct reports’ and peer overall ratings. The manager’s ratings and the engagement ratings were not as highly correlated, but all the differences are statistically significant.

Do You Need All Three Elements of Trust?

We were also curious to know if leaders needed to be skilled in all three elements to generate a high level of trust and whether any one element had the most significant impact on the trust rating. To gauge this, we created an experiment where we separated leaders into high and low levels on each of the three pillars and then measured the level of trust.

Intuitively we thought that consistency would be the most important element. Saying one thing and doing another seems like it would hurt trust the most. While our analysis showed that inconsistency does have a negative impact (trust went down 17 points), it was relationships that had the most substantial impact. When relationships were low and both judgment and consistency were high, trust went down 33 points. This may be because many leaders are seen as occasionally inconsistent. We all intend to do things that don’t get done, but once a relationship is damaged or if it was never formed in the first place, it’s difficult for people to trust.

We often tell people that they don’t need to be perfect to be an excellent leader but when it comes to trust, all three of these elements need to be above average. Remember that, in our analysis, we set the bar fairly low: at the 60th percentile. This is not a brilliant level of performance, barely above average.

We have regularly found in our research that if a leader has a preference for a particular skill, they are more likely to perform better at it. Think about which of these elements of trust you have a stronger preference for – and which you prefer least. Because you need to be above average on each, it is probably worth your time to focus on improving the latter.

https://hbr.org/2019/02/the-3-elements-of-trust?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=hbr&utm_source=LinkedIn&tpcc=orgsocial_edit

Topley’s Top 10 – March 18, 2022

1. Over the Last 8 Years Global Central Banks Bought $260B Gold vs. $60B Treasuries

In a podcast with Grant Williams, Gromen said that over the last eight years, global central banks have bought about $260 billion worth of gold, compared to $60 billion in Treasurys. “So there’s been this very slow, but steady and recently accelerating move toward the away from this dollar system that broke in 2005, through 2008 to this system that looks a lot like what was proposed by [John Maynard] Keynes 80 years ago,” he says.

www.marketwatch.com

This chart is showing gold vs. 10 year U.S. treasury….Gold clear break-out of 2 year sideways channel.

www.stockcharts.com


2. The Russian Ruble Under Putin.

James Eagle  https://www.linkedin.com/in/jameseagle/


3. The High Yield Bond Default Rate Plummeted to Lows

Does this signal the start of the next distressed cycle? No one knows. What we do know is that a record amount of non-investment-grade debt is outstanding in the U.S. – over $3 trillion at the end of 2021 (see Figure 5). So there are plenty of leveraged companies out there that are only one idiosyncratic event away from being an actionable target for special situations investors. And in an imperfect world, that’s something you can count on happening over and over and over again.

Figure 5: U.S. Leveraged Debt Outstanding Has Ballooned

Source: S&P Global Leveraged Commentary & Data

Oakmark Research

The Roundup: Top Takeaways From Oaktree’s Quarterly Letters – 1Q2022 (oaktreecapital.com)


4. 30 Year Mortgage Averaging 4% Nationally

www.stockcharts.com


5. Coffee -17% Correction in one month


6. Gas Production from American Shale Already at New Record


7. Annual Venture Capital Funding Shatters All Records…..100+ Unicorn Births Every Quarter

https://www.cbinsights.com/research-new-normal-in-venture?utm_source=linkedin&utm_medium=paid&utm_campaign=marketing_linkedin-retargeting_2022-02&utm_content=venture-persona&li_fat_id=162b6558-85f3-469c-8bc9-c67862048b5c


8. Housing Supply is Coming…Housing Starts Hit 16 Year High

This pushed Housing Starts to their highest SAAR since June 2006 as Permits pulls back from similar highs…

Source: Bloomberg   from zerohedge  https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-housing-starts-surged-16-year-high-feb


9. Poland Mobilizes Overnight to Take in 2m Refugees

Warsaw rolls out the red carpet for refugees

Nearly 3 million Ukrainians have fled the country since Russian forces invaded. Most of them—roughly 1.8 million—have arrived in neighboring Poland, and as many as 300,000 have settled in the capital, Warsaw.

  • For context, it’s as if the entire city of Pittsburgh moved to Warsaw in just three weeks.

They’ve received a hero’s welcome. The city’s government, businesses, and citizens mobilized remarkably fast and have opened 22 shelters in the city, enrolled nearly 2,800 Ukrainian children into its school system, donated food, and coordinated volunteer counselors and translators.

Still, Warsaw and the rest of Poland are bursting at the seams, and they won’t be able to sustain what has become the fastest-growing refugee crisis in Europe since World War II on their own. Some services in bigger Polish cities are reaching capacity and officials are asking organizations like the UN to help spread out incoming Ukrainians.

  • “The West has to wake up and send a strong signal that they [refugees] are welcome, not only in Poland and Romania and Slovakia, but everywhere,” Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski told CBS.

Big picture: Some aid workers have highlighted the difference in treatment for the current refugees with those who’ve previously arrived in Europe from Middle Eastern and African countries.—MM

         

https://www.morningbrew.com/daily


10. Luck and Executive Function–How belief in being lucky can have everyday benefits.

KEY POINTS

  • Belief in oneself as lucky can have consequences for self-efficacy.
  • Beliefs in oneself as unlucky can have consequences for the way we use our problem solving abilities.
  • The question now might be which came first: seeing oneself as unlucky, or executive dysfunction?

There is a difference between the way luck is defined in the laboratory and the way we talk about it in everyday life. Many of us see luck as an individual characteristic we each possess, part of the set of characteristics that makes each of us unique. One of the most interesting results to come out of the psychology labs that have been investigating luck is a change in the assessment of the consequences of believing in luck.

It used to be that social and cognitive psychology saw belief in luck as a characteristic of people who had an external locus of control, and that external locus of control was associated with poorer mental health (depression, anxiety, and helplessness). Externally located people believed that what happened to them was the result of some force outside of their own abilities. This led to the idea that believing in luck was unhealthy because it requires that you see yourself as unable to control or influence what goes on around you.

Recent research is changing this view of luck and luckiness. Seeing luck as a characteristic of your “self,” as something that makes you unique in the world, may actually be beneficial. Research has shown that believing that you are a lucky person may be an indicator of good mental health because it is associated with a personal characteristic whose power is often overlooked—hope.

Liza Day and John Maltby have been studying our belief in luck and what it might be doing for us. In 2005, they conducted two studies that examined the relationship between believing in good luck, optimism, and hope. They first asked a very large set of undergraduates to take a series of paper-and-pencil tests that measured these three characteristics. They found that the stronger the belief in hope was, the more optimistic the person was, and the more they believed that their goals could and would be achieved. They also tended to feel confident that they would be able to find a way around any obstacles that might appear along the route toward achieving their goal. Hope, in particular, turned out to be the best predictor of how much the students believed in luck.

Then they asked another set of students to think about a real and important life goal, and to then rate how confident they were that they would be able to achieve that goal, how hopeful they were, and how much they thought luck might be necessary in achieving that goal. Their results showed that belief in good luck was particularly important when we’re coming up with a plan to achieve a goal.

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Seeing luck as a personal characteristic was associated with hope, optimism, and generally good mental health. So, does seeing yourself as unlucky have the opposite set of consequences? Do you also see yourself as hopeless, pessimistic, anxious, and depressed?

It turns out that the answer is…not exactly. Maltby et al., hypothesized that believing in your own unluckiness would have consequences for the way executive functions are used. Executive functions are mediated by our frontal lobes and include planning what to do next, coming up with alternatives when our first plan doesn’t work out, organizing what we know, switching from solving a problem in one way to solving it in another, and inhibiting an incorrect response.

Maltby and colleagues measured belief in personal unluckiness, optimism, self-efficacy, belief in the irrational in general, and executive functions. They found that the stronger one’s belief in personal unluckiness was, the weaker one’s belief in self-efficacy and the lower the levels of optimism were. People who saw themselves as unlucky also tended to be introverted, were more likely to hold irrational beliefs in general, were more difficult to get along with, and were less likely to try new things.

They asked their volunteers to take part in a task that tested their ability to switch from one problem-solving strategy to another, an aspect of executive function known as switching. The more unlucky a participant saw him- or herself as being, the worse their ability to switch from a simple task to a complex one.

Then, they asked participants to try their hand at the Stroop task designed to measure another aspect of executive functioning—the ability to suppress or inhibit a response. Participants saw three different kinds of stimuli appear on the screen, in random order. Congruent stimuli (where the word and the color of the ink the word was presented and matched—the word “pink” in pink ink for example), neutral stimuli, and incongruent stimuli (the word “pink” presented in green ink).

For most of us, reading is an automatic behavior, and we do it very well. In the Stroop task, you are asked to report the color of the ink and to ignore the word. This is much harder to do. It takes longer and we make more mistakes because we have to inhibit our natural, over-learned tendency to read the word. That inhibition is an executive function.

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The more unlucky people believed themselves to be, the longer they took on this task and the more mistakes they made. Seeing yourself as unlucky apparently made it even harder to suppress the reading response.

Maltby et al., went on to measure several other aspects of executive function and their relationship to believing oneself to be unlucky and concluded that people who saw unluckiness as a personal characteristic didn’t do well on these executive function tasks.

Seeing oneself as unlucky didn’t directly lead to depression and anxiety, but it was paired with a tendency toward executive dysfunction. The question now might be which came first: seeing oneself as unlucky, or executive dysfunction?

Barbara Blatchley Ph.D.  https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/what-are-the-chances/202109/luck-and-executive-function?collection=1172589

Topley’s Top 10 – March 16, 2022

1. Stocks After a Bad Quarter and Bad Month ..What Happens?

Wealth of Common Sense Blog

After Bad Quarter

After Bad Month

Some Thoughts on Bear Marketsby Ben Carlson  Some Thoughts on Bear Markets (awealthofcommonsense.com)


2. Data Spanning 82 Rate Hike Cycles Forward Returns Following Rate Hikes


3. VIX—11th Consecutive Days Over 30

From Dave Lutz Jones Trading–Yesterday was the 11th consecutive day the VIX will close >30.  LPL notes Eventually it’ll close <30 and when it does, that could be a good sign. Here are the longest streaks ever and what happened next for stocks. Down a year later only once.


4. Emerging Markets ETF….Right Back to 20 Year Sideways Box

www.stockcharts.com


5. Seven Fed Rate Hikes for 2022 are now Fully Priced in…….

United States: Seven Fed rate hikes for 2022 are now fully priced in. The chart below shows the futures market’s expectations for rate increases (in addition to the 25 bps hike this month).

Source: The Daily Shot

https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-march-15th-2022/


6. TIPS vs. AGG YTD

In a big inflation year TIPS still negative returns but outperforming bond index….Chart is showing TIPS vs. AGG (bond index)


7. HACK ETF….Cyber Security

HACK ETF -23% Correction from Highs

www.stockcharts.com

Top Holdings ETF.COM

https://www.etf.com/HACK#overview


8. WSJ-Saudi Arabia Considers Accepting Yuan Instead of Dollars for Chinese Oil Sales

Talks between Riyadh and Beijing have accelerated as the Saudi unhappiness grows with Washington

By Summer Said Followin Dubai and Stephen Kalin Follow

Saudi Arabia is in active talks with Beijing to price some of its oil sales to China in yuan, people familiar with the matter said, a move that would dent the U.S. dollar’s dominance of the global petroleum market and mark another shift by the world’s top crude exporter toward Asia.

The talks with China over yuan-priced oil contracts have been off and on for six years but have accelerated this year as the Saudis have grown increasingly unhappy with decades-old U.S. security commitments to defend the kingdom, the people said.

The Saudis are angry over the U.S.’s lack of support for their intervention in the Yemen civil war, and over the Biden administration’s attempt to strike a deal with Iran over its nuclear program. Saudi officials have said they were shocked by the precipitous U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan last year.

China buys more than 25% of the oil that Saudi Arabia exports. If priced in yuan, those sales would boost the standing of China’s currency. The Saudis are also considering including yuan-denominated futures contracts, known as the petroyuan, in the pricing model of Saudi Arabian Oil Co. , known as Aramco.

Surge in Oil Prices Could Drive Inflation : Surge in Oil Prices Could Drive Inflation Even Higher

Russia’s attack on Ukraine helped push the price of oil to over $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014. Here’s how rising oil costs could further boost inflation across the U.S. economy. Photo illustration: Todd Johnson

It would be a profound shift for Saudi Arabia to price even some of its roughly 6.2 million barrels of day of crude exports in anything other than dollars. The majority of global oil sales—around 80%—are done in dollars, and the Saudis have traded oil exclusively in dollars since 1974, in a deal with the Nixon administration that included security guarantees for the kingdom.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-considers-accepting-yuan-instead-of-dollars-for-chinese-oil-sales-11647351541

Saudi Aramaco Chart…Sideways in 2021 spikes this year

https://www.google.com/search?q=aramaco+stock&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS898US898&oq=aramaco+stock&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i10i433j0i10l4j69i60l2.3033j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8


9. Senate passes bill to make Daylight Saving Time permanent

The Senate passed a measure that would make Daylight Savings Time permanent across the U.S.

Why it matters: If the legislation clears the House and is signed into law by President Biden, it will mean Americans will no longer have to change their clocks twice a year.

The details: The bill—the Sunshine Protection Act co-sponsored by Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.)—was passed by unanimous consent.

  • It would make Daylight Savings time permanent in 2023.

The big picture: Health groups have called for an end to the seasonal shifting of clocks, a ritual first adopted in the U.S. more than a century ago.

  • At a house hearing last week, health experts cited sleep deprivation and health problems as negative effects associated with changing clocks.
  • Nearly two-thirds of Americans want to stop changing their clocks, according to a 2021 Economist/YouGov poll.

What they’re saying: “No more dark afternoons in the winter. No more losing an hour of sleep every spring. We want more sunshine during our most productive waking hours,” Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wa.) said on the Senate floor after the passage of the bill.

But, but, but: In the 1970s — the last time Congress made Daylight Savings Time permanent — the decision was reversed in less than a year after the early morning darkness proved dangerous for school children and public sentiment changed.

What’s next: Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.) will be leading a letter to Speaker Pelosi calling for immediate House passage of his bill, the Sunshine Protection Act, Axios has learned.

https://www.axios.com/daylight-saving-time-bill-senate-e391d97a-1a88-40eb-a42f-f8eb30f32136.html


10. Lessons From the Rise and Fall of ARK

By Jack Forehand, CFA, CFP® (@practicalquant) —

Fundamental value investors like me tend to get jealous when a new growth investor comes on the scene and generates huge returns. We go through various stages of denial as we watch their returns far exceed our own. We point out the overvaluation of their holdings. We predict that there is no way the returns can continue. And then we cap it all off by breaking out the word “bubble” to describe the holdings in their portfolio.

Two things are typically true of this process we go through. First, we are typically correct in the long run, as no investor can sustain 30%+ returns forever. But we are also almost always very early in making these calls, and a large portion of the growth manager’s returns come after people like me are saying the returns just can’t possibly continue.

In the same way this process played out with the Janus Twenty fund back in the day, it also played out in recent years with ARK. But if you think I will be taking some sort of victory lap in this article, you would be mistaken. Even after ARK’s flagship ETF has fallen 65%, its returns still exceed the returns of many value guys, myself included. So no victory lap is warranted. But I do think there are some lessons all of us can learn from what happened here that we can apply to our own investing.

Here are the five main lessons I have taken from the rise and fall of ARK.

[1] Valuation is Not a Short-Term Timing Tool

It was easy to look at the valuations across ARK’s portfolio throughout its rise and to use words like “ridiculous” and “unsustainable”. And by any traditional valuation standards, they were those things. But one of the biggest lessons I have learned in investing is that valuation is useless as a short-term timing tool. There is no level of overvaluation that tells us anything about the returns of a stock, or a fund, over the next year, or even the next two.

But that doesn’t mean we can just throw valuation completely out the window.

[2] Valuation Does Matter – Eventually

While valuation might not help us in the short-term, it is much more useful when it comes to predicting long-term expected returns. At one point, the ARK Innovation ETF’s portfolio had a median Price/Sales over 20. If you look at the long-term returns of a basket of those types of stocks, the word bad doesn’t do justice to how terrible it is. That doesn’t mean there won’t be stocks that will do well within that basket (we will get to that in a minute), but on average, ultra-high valuation stocks are not a good long-term investment

[3] A Great Company is Not Necessarily a Great Stock

Take a look at this chart.

If I told you this is a chart of a business that has performed very well in the 20+ year period the chart covers, you would likely tell me I am crazy. How could that happen with a stock that was flat for 20 years?

I don’t know if you guessed the company, but this is a chart of Cisco Systems. Over the period covered by this chart, Cisco has grown its sales and earnings substantially.

So why did the stock go down?

It is all about expectations. We recently had Michael Mauboussin on our podcast to discuss his book “Expectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns” (which he co-wrote with Al Rappaport). The idea they present in the book provides us with the answer as to why we could see a chart like the one above for a company that performed well. The answer is that the expectations that were embedded in Cisco’s stock price in 2000 were so high that even the very strong performance of its business since then was not enough to meet them. There are many similar examples of this idea throughout history.

There is a very real possibility that some of the companies within ARK’s portfolio will end up being great companies. But there is also a possibility that it won’t matter for investors who bought the fund at the valuations it traded at in the beginning of 2021 because the embedded expectations were just too great.

But that doesn’t mean that the story of Ark has been written yet and the ending will have to be a bad one.

And this leads to my next point.

[4] Growth Investing is About the Few, Not the Many

I mentioned earlier that growth stocks as a whole don’t perform well. But that is only half the story. The other half is that the best individual performers in the market typically come from the growth group. Growth investing is a process of finding diamonds in the rough. Amazon and Google, for example, are two stocks that have had massive runs, but have spent the vast majority of those runs living inside the expensive bucket.

With a focused fund like ARK, if one or two of those diamonds are in their portfolio and they can hold on to them, it can easily make up for all the other names that don’t do well. So even though many value guys like me want to write ARK off, the story hasn’t been completely written yet.

And this brings me to my final point.

[5] A Strategy is Only as Good as an Investors’ Ability to Stick With It

One of the things that has impressed me about ARK’s shareholder base during this 50%+ decline is that for the most part they haven’t sold. The fund has had outflows, but they are nothing like what you would expect for this level of decline.

If the ARK story has a positive ending eventually, whether that ending is also a good one for its shareholders will be a function of their ability to sit through these major drawdowns. And doing that is complicated by the fact that there is a good chance the ending won’t be a good one. As we sit here today, there is certainly a chance ARK will never recover its current losses and the fund will be a poor investment going forward. Value guys like me will tell you that chance is a pretty good one. But if we are wrong about that, it will be the ability of the ARK shareholder to endure that wild ride that will allow them to tell us I told you so.

The Future of ARK

However this story ends, I can promise you that the ending will look obvious to those on one side or the other in hindsight. If ARK goes on to suffer more major losses, value guys like me will talk about how we saw it coming all along. If not, the other side will wonder how we couldn’t have seen how obvious the growth potential of ARK’s portfolio companies were. But either way, I think there are timeless lessons all of us can take from this – even if those lessons are coming from a disgruntled value guy.


Jack Forehand is Co-Founder and President at Validea Capital. He is also a partner at Validea.com and co-authored “The Guru Investor: How to Beat the Market Using History’s Best Investment Strategies”. Jack holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation from the CFA Institute. Follow him on Twitter at @practicalquant.

https://blog.validea.com/lessons-from-the-rise-and-fall-of-ark/

Found at Abnormal Returns Blog  www.abnormalreturns.com

Topley’s Top 10 – March 15, 2022

1. Yield Curve Watch…Yield Curve Inversion is the Most Respected Indicator of Recession

Curve Flattening Toward Inversion

ByNikos Chrysoloras, Jess Menton, and Thyagaraju Adinarayan https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-12/recession-risks-are-piling-up-and-investors-need-to-get-ready?sref=GGda9y2L


2. Commodity ETF…..COMT -15% Correction

www.stockcharts.com


3. In 2 Year Period…Gasoline Futures Hit All-Time Low and All-Time High

@Charlie Bilello  There Is No Impossible in Markets

Two years ago the entire world was shutting down and Gasoline futures hit an all-time low.

Last week, they spiked to an all-time high, surpassing the previous high from 2008. If someone told you this would happen two years ago, you would have said that was impossible. But as we have learned time an again: there is no impossible in markets.

With gasoline futures hitting new highs, it wasn’t long before prices at pump would follow. By the end of the week, the average price of gasoline in the US had hit $4.33, surging past the prior high of $4.11 from 2008.


4. Canada by far the Leading Supplier of U.S. Oil

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading

We also have IEA, OPEC Monthly Market Reports and OpEx for April Crude this week


5. Euro Stock Sales Much Worse than Covid Crash

European Equity Exodus:  European equities (understandably given direct geopolitical risk, not to mention indirect/direct economic + financial spillover risk) have been *heavily* sold… much much worse than during the pandemic panic.

Source: @MikeZaccardi

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/weekly-sp500-chartstorm-13-march-2022-callum-thomas/?trk=eml-email_series_follow_newsletter_01-hero-1-title_link&midToken=AQFjhnSMpoKQvw&fromEmail=fromEmail&ut=0hFzdcGG6pVW81


6. Chinese Tech Stocks Full Dot-Com Crash

Jim Bianco Research

Chinese Small Cap ETF Hitting Covid Levels.

www.stockcharts.com


7. Corporate Bond Funds Seeing Double Digit Losses

Investment Grade Bond ETF….LQD -10.5% from highs

FPE Preferred ETF -9%

www.stockcharts.com


8. Coinbase Breaks to New Lows …Down Double Bitcoin ETF

Coinbase -35% YTD vs. BITO (Bitcoin ETF) -15%

www.yahoofinance.com


9. Rental Nation….Affordability of U.S. Homes Hits New Lows

Affordability of New Homes in U.S. Resumes Decline in 2022

Source: Political Calculations

From Barry Ritholtz Blog https://ritholtz.com/2022/03/10-monday-am-reads-341/


10. What is the West?

GEOPOLITICS -Morningbrew   What is ‘The West’?

 

When reading about the war in Ukraine, you’ve probably come across the term “the West” to describe the coalition of governments opposing Putin’s invasion. But what does the West actually mean?

For an answer, let’s get an assist from the brilliant Russia scholar Stephen Kotkin. In an interview with the New Yorker published this weekend, Kotkin gave his definition of the West, and it’s certainly better than anything we could come up with:

“The West is a series of institutions and values. The West is not a geographical place. Russia is European, but not Western. Japan is Western, but not European. ‘Western’ means rule of law, democracy, private property, open markets, respect for the individual, diversity, pluralism of opinion, and all the other freedoms that we enjoy, which we sometimes take for granted. We sometimes forget where they came from. But that’s what the West is. And that West, which we expanded in the nineties, in my view properly, through the expansion of the European Union and NATO, is revived now, and it has stood up to Vladimir Putin in a way that neither he nor Xi Jinping expected.”

The entire interview is packed with insights on the current situation.

https://www.morningbrew.com/daily

America the generous: U.S. leads globe in giving

Axios on facebookAxios on twitterAxios on linkedinAxios on email

From Axios Finish Line, here’s a stat to savor: America was the world’s most generous country this past decade, according to the Charities Aid Foundation’s World Giving Index, which surveyed 1.3 million people in 125 countries.

  • Not only do we give money, but 72% of Americans help strangers and 42% of us volunteer.
  • We grew more generous during the pandemic: 2020 and 2021 donations each topped 2019.

Why it matters: This cuts across religion, region and age, with nearly 60% of Americans giving money last year. Average donation: $574.

Trend to watch: There’s a big surge in people setting up Facebook and TikTok fundraisers in lieu of birthday presents. You might roll your eyes at the exhibitionist dimension of public giving … but it beats the alternative.

  • Facebook says birthday fundraisers bring in hundreds of millions of dollars a year. Top beneficiaries include St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital, the Alzheimer’s Association, the American Cancer Society and No Kid Hungry.
  • Try it.

An even newer, real-time wave to surf: Booking an Airbnb stay in Ukraine — not to visit but as a way to send money to a family in need.

  • Last week, 61,000 nights were booked at Airbnbs in Kyiv and other cities — 34,000 of them by Americans.
  • Try it.

Tip to go: Be careful when giving. These four sites, all recommended by the Federal Trade Commission, let you verify whether a charity is reputable:

And remember, if you want a deduction, you can make sure the charity qualifies by hitting the IRS Tax Exempt Organization Search.

Editor’s note: This story originally published on March 8.

https://www.axios.com/america-charitable-giving-stats-ukraine-0764185a-164a-4dde-a8b0-c6bbc09f83ea.html

Axios on facebookAxios on twitterAxios on linkedinAxios on email

Topley’s Top 10 – March 14, 2022

1. Capitalism vs. Communism…5 Year S&P +76% vs. Russia -76% (closed)

TikTokers enlist. The White House has briefed the most influential TikTok stars on the war in Ukraine so they can be better informed when talking about the conflict to their millions of followers, the WaPo reports. Over in Russia, the government is paying Russian TikTok influencers to post pro-Kremlin narratives about the war, according to Vice.

Brittney Griner-Considering the acquittal rate in Russia is less than 1%, it could require some high-level political wrangling. But so far, US officials said they’re trying to stick to strictly legal channels.

https://www.morningbrew.com/daily

www.yahoofinance.com


2. AGG-Bond Index About to Close Below 200 Day Moving Average.

AGG sitting on 200day long-term weekly chart


3. Streaming Wars Slammed Stocks…

NFLX -51% and breaks to new lows

ROKU -72%

IQ -90% Netflix of China

www.stockcharts.com


4. Streaming Listening

SPOT -58%

TME -90%

www.stockcharts.com


5. Follow Up to my Russian Economic Summaries Last Week…Capital Group Adds Some More Clarity.

Capital Group 

Exposure to Russia looms large for Europe, less so for the world

Sources: Capital Group, IMF World Economic Outlook, MSCI, RIMES. As of December 31, 2021. GDP figures are annual. “Emerging and developing Europe” includes Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Kosovo, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Turkey and Ukraine. Exposure to equity indexes reflects the percentage of index market value represented by Russian companies within listed indexes.

https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/investment-impacts-war-ukraine.html?sfid=1988901890&cid=80683121&et_cid=80683121&cgsrc=SFMC&alias=A-btn-LP-2-CISynCTA


6. Europe Stopped Producing Natural Gas and Russia Filled the Gap

WSJ Editorial Board.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-lesson-in-energy-masochism-europe-natural-gas-russia-vladimir-putin-11646170129


7. Midterm Election Years History

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading…Midterm years see an average peak to trough correction of 17.1% – 12.4% so far this year feels uncomfortable, but need to remember this is normal in midterm years.  The good news is a year later stocks are up more than 30%, LPL notes


8. Vanguard REIT Index…50day thru 200day to Downside.


9. NFTs Became a $40 billion Market in 2021….Ethereum Dominates NFT Transaction Volume

Financial Times

According to the Financial Times, while only a niche group of crypto enthusiasts were aware of NFTs in 2020, the landscape quickly exploded in 2021. By the end of 2021, almost $41 billion was spent on NFTs, according to global data.

A research analyst, Mason Nystrom, said a major reason for the NFT market growth was the demand buyers had to purchase art that aligned with their “digital identities”.

List of NFT Stats click link

https://findstack.com/nft-statistics/

https://delphidigital.io/


10. Why Always Being Busy Negatively Affects Your Self-Development

ByDan Western 

More and more often people are finding themselves busier than they can handle;

And this, far from being something which is treated as worrying, is actually seen as favourable. It’s almost a badge of honour to be able to say to people that you have been too busy to eat/sleep/have a social life/be a human being.

Too many people are falling into the trap of thinking that being busy to the exclusion of everything else in their lives is a good thing.

We are now becoming more and more aware of how bad it actually is; and research is being done into how to combat it and ensure that everybody takes some time for themselves. Rather than being busy all the time and finally burning out at the end of it all.

Why Always Being Busy Can Be Bad for Self Development

Being busy and stressed all the time isn’t good for your body or your mind – it can have negative effects on your life and your health in particular.

This article will look at the ways in which being busy can be detrimental to you overall.

1. Creativity Killer

You might think that this should be obvious – being too busy can kill creativity.

Researchers who carried out a simple word association test: found that the people who were busier and had more on their minds were less creative in their answers than people who were at their leisure.

It was found, more specifically, that people who had more to remember had their replies stripped back to the most statistically common answers. Whereas people who had very little to remember were able to come up with less stereotypical responses.

This was not a function of them having less time than was necessary for the task. Even with plenty of time, the group with lots to remember still could not progress beyond the simplistic answers they gave.

This effect is what many people have found in the real world as well as in the lab; and understanding what it has done and is doing to our creativity is vitally important for changing things.

Having too much on your mind is something which can blunt creativity; and so stop you from either advancing or expanding on your current career. If you want to continue to move forward and see where your path can take you, losing your creativity can be devastating.

2. Wrong Priorities

If you are too busy, it can actively keep you from moving forward with your life. I have been experiencing this myself recently. Actively being kept from moving forward with my plans and my life in general.

Creativity needs some mental head-space for it to really thrive. If you are too busy, it can keep you from looking at other possibilities and other thoughts; and keep you on one particular path rather than trying to diversify and see what really works for you.

Being so busy that your creativity is stifled is what can lead you to prioritise the wrong things, something which can be bad overall.

When you are too busy to think, you can be too busy to truly see what is going on; and sometimes that means you can miss things that you would not otherwise miss: other creative opportunities, other jobs which will push you beyond what you are doing now.

3. No Time to Track Progress

Being busy can stifle you by keeping you from seeing where you are. Many people, especially as they get older and more established in their careers; have a particular way they want their career to go. And they have specific milestones set that they want to look out for, to help them get there.

Being too busy can keep you from tracking your progress, and therefore can keep you from truly advancing in your aspirations.

Ideally, every step you take in your career should be focused on how it can help you proceed to the next stage. Even if you are planning on staying at that level for a while. if you are too busy, you can feel unable to truly think beyond what you are doing; and about how to reach the next part of your plan.

This can mean you end up stuck in one particular level for a long time. Perhaps even so long that the opportunities you were going to take advantage of, have gone completely by the time you get around to them.

4. You Aren’t Working to your Potential

When you are very busy, you will find that you are simply moving from one task to the next; there is usually very little thought put into each individual work-piece, because there is simply no time to put the effort in.

When people are busy, they don’t have the time to add any extra flair to their work that creativity might otherwise give.

Being too busy means that you are focused on getting as much work done as possible. But that does not mean that the work being done is your best work. You are at your best when you can actually take the time to breathe, and to look over your work at your leisure.

Not only will that help you improve generally; it’s easier to see mistakes when you aren’t rushing. You will find that you are able to bring so much more to the table when you aren’t rushing.

5. You Put Your Health in Danger

Working this hard is bad for your health. It is bad for everything else, but particularly for your health. If you work this hard, you will find yourself cutting back on sleep, proper food, and a proper social life.

Having no space to stretch your creative muscles, or to go on to other things, is detrimental overall; because you have sacrificed food and sleep for stress and overwork which is ultimately in the service of very little.

Sub-par work is all that most people have to show for their efforts after a long period of overwork.

Summary

This article has not covered all of the effects of overwork. But it has covered enough to hopefully make people think twice before they willingly accept being in a position of having too much work to comfortably do; while also having to sacrifice every semblance of a normal life to get everything done.

Too much work is bad for creativity especially, as there is no room for anybody to think beyond what is absolutely necessary for their work.

https://wealthygorilla.com/why-always-being-busy-negative/

Topley’s Top 10 – March 10, 2022

1. History of U.S. Consumer Spending on Energy

Dave Lutz Jones Trading


2. Russia Minimal Impact on U.S. Economy and 1.5% of Emerging Market Index

LPL Research

https://iplresearch.com/2022/03/03/economically-and-financially-russia-doesnt-matter-as-much-as-you-might-think/


3. Visual Guide to European Memberships

A Visual Guide to Europe’s Member States- Anshool Deshmukh

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/a-visual-guide-to-europes-member-states/


4. Percentage Who Have Confidence Putin Will “do the right thing”…..

Pew Research  Greece and Singapore 55%???

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/06/14/few-across-17-advances-economies-have-confidence-in-putin/ft_21-06-10_viewsofputin_01/


5. McDonalds $50m a Month from Russian Sales.

MCD -16% from Highs

www.stockcharts.com


6. Stitch Fix –Covid Favorite Long Name….-86% from Highs

www.stockcharts.com


7. Gasoline Drops -10% in One Day….After 15 Year Breakout on Chart

-10% Intra-day yesterday

15 Year Breakout Before Yesterday Sell Off

www.stockcharts.com


8. Job Openings Double Number of Unemployed Americans.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/job%20openings%20vs%20workers_0.jpg?itok=IWjvoZr2


9. The Russian Ware and Crypto by Morningbrew

The Russia-Ukraine war is a critical moment for crypto

From funding the Ukrainian military to aiding its citizens, crypto is raising questions about the possibilities of borderless currency.

ByStephanie Forshee

On February 26, Ukraine’s official Twitter account announced that the country was accepting donations in the form of bitcoin, ethereum, and the stablecoin tether. Days later, it added polkadot and dogecoin to the mix.

More than 100,000 crypto asset donations worth more than $59 million were sent to Ukraine between February 24 and the morning of March 7, according to blockchain analytics firm Elliptic. It marks an unprecedented moment as cryptocurrency, largely decentralized from government-run banks or government imposed restrictions, bypasses financial institutions and moves directly to the Ukrainian government, as well as its civilians. And crypto, which is viewed by some to be one of the most efficient ways to get funds directly to Ukrainians, could become a bigger part of the conversation moving forward as Russian troops continue to advance to Kyiv.

Ukraine has disbursed $15 million of its total cryptocurrency donations to purchase military gear, including weapons, bulletproof vests, and medical supplies, Bloomberg reports. While the Ukrainian government’s crypto fund is reserved for its military, other funds have been launched to help civilians evacuate and to get food and gas to them. One such fund is the “private fund” of Kuna founder Michael Chobanian. Kunda helped Ukraine officials set up crypto wallets for donations.

NFTs have also played a small role. UkraineDAO, backed by a member of the Russian artist collective Pussy Riot, launched an NFT of the Ukrainian flag that raised about $6.7 million, and Vice Prime Minister of Ukraine Mykhailo Fedorov tweeted on Thursday that Ukraine would accept NFTs to help financially support its armed forces.

 

In Russia, the economy has tanked as the United States and its European allies have set limits of their own—from blocking much of Russia’s access to the SWIFT bank messaging network to rolling out boycotts of Russian vodka. Meanwhile, the value of the ruble has plummeted, and citizens have rushed to ATMs to retrieve any cash they can get their hands on. That’s where the unregulated nature of crypto could prove to be a problem.

US legislators, including Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), and European lawmakers have expressed concerns that Russia could skirt sanctions using the largely unregulated forms of payment. “Cryptocurrencies risk undermining sanctions against Russia, allowing Putin and his cronies to evade economic pain,” Warren tweeted on Monday. “US financial regulators need to take this threat seriously and increase their scrutiny of digital assets.”

Warren, along with three other Democratic US senators—Sherrod Brown (OH), Mark Warner (VA), and Jack Reed (RI)—sent a letter to US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on March 2, asking her to explain how the Treasury intends to enforce sanctions compliance by the cryptocurrency industry, “given the need to ensure the efficacy and integrity of our sanctions program against Russia and other adversaries.” (They have asked her to respond by March 23.)

A number of crypto exchanges have pledged to comply with US sanctions but will not cut off individual Russian users, even after Fedorov asked them to freeze all Russian accounts in order to put even more domestic pressure on the country. Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao told BBC Radio his company is not backing down on its stance that it will not cut off Russians’ access to crypto. While Zhao said Binance is monitoring activity among political leaders using the crypto exchange to fund war efforts, it wants to make itself available to Russian civilians caught up in the war.

“We are not political, we are against war,” Zhao said, “but we are here to help the people.” His sentiments were echoed by spokespeople for Coinbase and other major crypto exchanges.

And judging by early metrics, Russians are exchanging their rubles for crypto, raising questions about whether or not the borderless currency could unwillingly fuel Russia’s aggression. Motherboard reported that tether, which is based on the value of the US dollar, was particularly popular with Russians. The tether/ruble trading volume broke records on March 1 with $34.94 million.

This is a seismic shift in the way war-torn countries can access funds from around the globe. Alex Gladstein, chief strategy officer of the Human Rights Foundation, a nonprofit group based in New York, told Morning Brew that the crypto-focused fundraising efforts by Ukraine are not only “geopolitically fascinating” but also “completely revolutionary.”

Ukraine’s people are struggling to access traditional money, creating “a logistical nightmare with regard to banking,” Gladstein said. He thinks the “parallel system” that bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies offer “is hugely helpful.”

He said, “People are starting to realize why [some turn to] bitcoin.”

The Russia-Ukraine war is a critical moment for crypto (morningbrew.com)


10. Contrarian Edge Vitaliy Katsenelson Grew Up in Russia

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson

https://contrarianedge.com/

Dear Matt, Feel free to share it with your friends. -Vitaliy

Drawing is by my brother, Alex Katsenelson. Prints available on ArtistUSA.com.

 

This is part 3 of my ongoing series on the Russian war with Ukraine. You can read part 1 here and part 2 here (available in English as well as a Russian translation). Part 4 is forthcoming.
To everyone that suggested a charity helping embattled Ukraine: thank you. This country needs all the help it can get. You can find the list of charities here, as well as at the bottom of this email.
There is a good chance I will be coming to Houston and Dallas on or near March 14/15. We’d like to organize a reader get-together around then in either or both cities. If you’re close by and would like to attend, please email Barbara at pa@imausa.com.

 

War in Ukraine: Part 3 – The Future of Russia

 

“Putin cannot bring the Soviet Union back together, but he can bring back breadlines.”

–Ian Bremmer

 

Sanctions will likely have a very significant impact on the Russian economy. Unlike previous (2014) sanctions, which were toothless and slow to have an impact, these went straight for the jugular of the Russian financial system, possibly crippling it overnight. The Russian central bank had to raise rates to 20%, banks stopped giving out loans, and the ruble collapsed. The Russian economy is likely going to be engulfed in inflation, the magnitude of which it has not seen since the early 1990s. Russia has been cut off from the West overnight. Russia has turned into a toxic pollutant on corporate ESG checklists. Even Coca-Cola is leaving Russia.

The thinking in the West is that the Russian people will revolt against their dictatorial ruler, and this will bring an end to the war. In addition, the sanctions should in theory deprive Russia of the economic oxygen it needs for Putin to be able strengthen the Russian military and put an excruciatingly high price tag on future wars.

Will sanctions bring an end to Putin?

Sanctions have a checkered history. They didn’t get rid of Castro in Cuba or the Kims in North Korea. It took more than a decade for sanctions against South Africa in the 1980s to bear fruit. Sanctions in the past have been an effective stick that was turned into a carrot when both sides came to the negotiating table.

But the world has never seen sanctions like this. Ironically, these sanctions may give Putin even more power.

How?

To control the masses, Putin tells them what to think. How does he manage that?

In 2014, I was perplexed by how the Russian people could possibly support and not be outraged by Russia’s invasion of Eastern Ukraine. But I live in Denver, and I read mostly U.S. and European newspapers. I wanted to see what was going on in Russia and Ukraine from the Russian perspective, so I went on a seven-day news diet: I watched only Russian TV – Channel One Russia, the state-owned broadcaster, which I hadn’t seen in more than 20 years – and read Pravda, the Russian newspaper whose name means “truth.” I wrote a lengthy article on this topic – you can read it here. An excerpt:

In my misspent youth, I took a marketing class at the University of Colorado. I remember very little from that class except this: For your message to be remembered, a consumer has to hear it at least six times. Putin’s propaganda folks must have taken the same class, because Russian citizens get to hear how great their president is at least six times a day.

We Americans look at Putin and see an evil KGB guy who roams around the country without a shirt on. Russians are shown a very different picture. They see a hard-working president who cares deeply about them. Every news program dedicates at least one fifth of its airtime to showcasing Putin’s greatness, not in your face but in subtle ways. A typical clip would have him meeting with a cabinet minister. The minister would give his report, and Putin, looking very serious indeed, would lecture the minister on what needs to be done. Putin is always candid, direct and tough with his ministers. [In Part 1 of this series I discussed how Russians love their leaders to death. Russian TV is an unending informercial for Putin. Russians get huge helpings of Putin-love for breakfast, lunch and dinner.]

I’ve listened to a few of Putin’s speeches, and I have to admit that his oratory skills are excellent, of J.F.K. or Reagan caliber. He doesn’t give a speech; he talks. His language is accessible and full of zingers. He is very calm and logical. [I’ve heard that isolation during the pandemic had an impact on him and he lost some of his eloquence over the last few years.]

I have to confess, it is hard not to develop a lot of self-doubt about your previously held views when you watch Russian TV for a week. But then you have to remind yourself that Putin’s Russia doesn’t have a free press. The free press that briefly existed after the Soviet Union collapsed is gone – Putin killed it. The government controls most TV channels, radio and newspapers. What Russians see on TV, read in print, and listen to on the radio is direct propaganda from the Kremlin.

Before I go further, let’s visit the definition of propaganda with the help of the Oxford English Dictionary: “The systematic dissemination of information, especially in a biased or misleading way, in order to promote a political cause or point of view.”

I always thought of the Internet as an unstoppable democratic force that would always let the truth slip out through the cracks in even the most determined wall of propaganda. I was wrong. After watching Russian TV, you would not want to read the Western press, because you’d be convinced it was lying. More important, Russian TV is so potent that you would not even want to watch anything else, because you would be convinced that you were in possession of indisputable facts.

Russia’s propaganda works by forcing your right brain (the emotional one) to overpower your left brain (the logical one), while clogging all your logical filters.

I know exactly what I am going to hear back from some of my fellow Americans. They are going to say: Don’t you think Americans are brainwashed by Fox News, MSNBC, CNN, and other news outlets? There is no question in my mind that American news is more biased today than ever before. But there is a difference between bias and what is happening in Russia. At least by watching different news outlets and reading different newspapers, Americans can triangulate to the truth.

Most importantly, the US government doesn’t tell networks what to say. The editor of The Washington Post doesn’t have to worry about a trumped-up charge if he writes a scathing article about Biden. In Russia there is only one media voice and that is the voice of the government. All other voices were silenced by the government. The government has zero accountability. Think of Watergate, Irangate, and other “gates” scandals – they could never happen in today’s Russia.

I never appreciated the free press as much as I do now. The free press shines a light on government actions. It provides a much needed feedback loop between government and the public.

Over the last few days things have gotten tremendously worse on this front. Russia passed a new law: If you call this war with Ukraine a war, not a “special operation” or publish any views that contradict stories put out by the Ministry of Defense (i.e., create “fake news”) you can get up to 15 years in prison. Providing assistance to foreign organizations that oppose the war (sorry, “special operation”) with Ukraine will be considered treason, which may result in up to 20 years in prison. Needless to say, most independent local and foreign news organization immediately closed their doors. Since the invasion, Facebook, Twitter, and other social media have also been blocked in Russia. In other words, Russia turned into China overnight.

Today, cognitive dissonance between reality and what the government says rose to a comical level. A day after the Russian government passed the aforementioned laws, Putin gave a speech, where he said (I am loosely translating):

In Russia, our people are expressing their views about what they like or don’t like about the situation in Ukraine. But there, in Ukraine, those who express the same opinions as the liberal part of our citizenry are grabbed from the street and shot. They are just simply shooting them. In Russia, our liberals are protesting. In Ukraine they just kill them without due process.

Remember, this speech was given just a day after he passed a law that you can get up to 15 years in prison for calling a war a war.

Here is another example of how official Russian news has little resemblance to reality. I went to Pravda, clicked on the first article I saw, and read: “The Ministry of Defense has repeatedly stated that no missile, artillery, or air strikes are carried out by Russian forces on the cities of Ukraine; and the civilian population will not suffer during the operation, since its purpose is solely to disable the military infrastructure.”

Ruins of apartment buildings that have been destroyed by Russia artillery are figments of our imagination. Who do you want to believe, the Russian Ministry of Defense or your lying eyes?

Here is another example: a message on Instagram by a Ukrainian young man:

My dad works as a security guard in a monastery near Nizhny Novgorod [Russia]. He is a deeply religious person and congratulates me on all church holidays. Yesterday I wondered why my father did not call (the war is the same) and called him [my]self.

I told in detail about what was happening – my father replied that this was nonsense, there was no war, and the Russians were saving us from the Nazis, who were making human shields out of civilians.

I could not believe when I read this. I wanted to see if it was true on my own. I was already in a WhatsApp group chat with my classmates with whom I went to middle school in Russia. This is what they told me: Russia was forced into this war. It is getting rid of neo-Nazis in Ukraine. The Russian Army is liberating Donbas and Lugansk from Ukrainian genocide. Their admiration for Putin was at a new high. (The stories I read that Putin’s popularity is hitting new heights seem to be true.) At the end of the conversation, I was convinced that they are brainwashed, and they were convinced that I am brainwashed.

We had no common reality to stand on. None. We all agreed that we don’t want people to die on either side. They were convinced that the civilians who are dying in Ukrainian cities are killed not by Russian artillery and rockets but by neo-Nazis and Banderovtsi (Ukranian nationalists) shooting and bombing their own people. (The war in Donbass and Lugansk and neo-Nazis are a very important topic that I’ll have to discuss separately, hopefully in the next part.)

These folks I went to school with, played in the snow with, and even had crushes on a couple of them. They are kind, good people, but Putin’s TV has completely zombified them. As one of my friends said, they have Russian TV on their brains. (Of course, there is another possibility: that I am zombified and am completely oblivious to that fact.)

People in Russia are brainwashed beyond what any Westerner can possibly imagine. They live in their own version of the Truman Show, in an alternate reality that is deeply divorced from the world outside their dome. This point is paramount: Control of the media allows Putin to completely deform and carefully craft his version of the truth. And this is why I am worried that sanctions may not be as effective as we hope.

I heard from my junior high school friends a line that I’ve seen in other places: “We are in the middle of a war. We have to finish that war.” This war has further solidified Putin’s position. He presents the sanctions as the West’s aggression against Russia. It seems that zombified Russians have given him a blank check on the pain they are willing to endure and the lives of their kids they are willing to lose. This may change as the body count continues to climb and parents realize that their children who today are not picking up the phone are lying dead in the fields of Ukraine, and that sanctions from the West will continue to inflict tremendous pain on the Russian economy.

This brings me to the next point. Russia’s next chapter looks very dark.

Not everyone is zombified in Russia. A few of my school friends reached out to me privately and expressed their disgust with the war. They did not want to voice their opinions in public. Even when we talked on WhatsApp, despite WhatsApp’s claim of end-to-end encryption, they were still concerned that they might be listened to. These are not a paranoid people, but people who know the ugly Russian history and who are acutely aware that the punishment the newly passed laws carry punishment for being labeled an “enemy of the state” or a “collaborator with the enemy” (yours truly) is 15 years rotting in prison.

Let’s zoom in for a second on Russia’s dark history. Until the late 1980s, Joseph Stalin was a Soviet hero who led the Soviet Union in defeating the Nazis. You could often see Stalin’s portrait hanging in classrooms right next to Lenin’s. My father told me that when Stalin died in 1953 the whole country cried, including him (he was 20). It was one of the saddest days of his life.

After perestroika and glasnost in the late 1980s, we were shocked to learn that the evilness of Stalin, the father figure we admired so much, was fully on par with Hitler’s. Stalin killed 20 million people, while 27 million people died in WWII. (I don’t claim to know the validity of the precision of either number. It’s irrelevant; both men killed millions of people). Stalin also eliminated the leadership of the Soviet Army, which made Soviet losses in WWII greater.

The Stalin regime was oppressive. If you were called an “enemy of the people” there was no due process; you were guilty and you were either shot or sent to a gulag, where you’d die from inhuman working conditions and hunger. In fact, a lot of magnificent Soviet infrastructure was built by slave labor (“enemies of the people”).

Today, Putin’s government is rewriting history. Stalin is back in vogue again. He is glorified as a leader who united the country, and you start seeing new statues of him popping up across Russia. In 2014 Russia passed a law that prohibits criticism of Soviet activities during WWII (and thus of Stalin).

Putin wants Russians to forget their history so he can repeat it.

I vividly remember my mom’s terrified face in the early 1980s when a guest at our dining table or my father said something that was not supportive of government policy. If it leaked to authorities, my parents would not have gone to the gulag, but they could have lost their jobs. I never thought I’d see fear of criticizing the government again in Russia. But it’s back. This is why my friends who don’t have a TV in their heads were afraid and did not want to speak up in my classmate WhatsApp group.

In less than two weeks since the beginning of the Ukraine war, with the passing of the new laws, Russia made an enormous leap back towards 1937 and an oppressive Stalin-like regime. While Ukraine, thanks to Russia, went back to 1941, as women and children started dying from artillery and rocket bombings.

The situation in Russia will get worse. Mothers will realize they have lost their children in Ukraine, and sanctions will cause enormous unemployment, breadlines, and maybe even hunger. People will start speaking up more – and the Stalin-era oppression will likely come back in full swing. The country will suddenly be swarming with “enemies of the state” and gulags will be back in vogue again.

There is talk in the media that the oligarchs and upper echelons of the government may revolt against Putin. If you are thinking about this, so is Putin. I don’t know what probability to put on this; I don’t think anyone knows. Whatever you think that probability is, I’d reduce it by half.

In the meantime, though, this war is lasting longer and going worse than Putin expected. Putin has the time to continue the war, because Russians are either brainwashed and supporting the war or being arrested the second they voice their displeasure with the war. My biggest concern, since there is no feedback loop by which to accomplish the goal of “freeing the Ukrainian government from drug addicts and Nazis” (I kid you not, Putin’s words) and basically replacing the Ukrainian government, Putin will resort to the strategy he employed to win the war in Chechnya – he leveled Chechnya’s cities.

A silver lining here is that it is usually the young people who don’t “have a TV in their heads,” as they watch less Russian TV, spend more time on social media (I never thought I’d be thankful for social media), and are more aware of what is going in the West (no, NATO was not about to invade Russia). The army is full of young people, and maybe Russian soldiers will continue to surrender or, even better, become the source of dissent.

Unfortunately, to my shock, this war is more popular in Russia than I ever thought it would be. Maybe by the time you read this it will already be over, but I doubt it. Putin is under little pressure to conclude it, and, as my middle school friends said, “The war has already started; we have to finish it.”

The thinking part of the populace, who understand what is going on and are against the war, are going out onto the streets and protesting or are too afraid to do so. As of this writing, more than 2,000 peaceful anti-war demonstrators have been arrested. Any appearance, even a pretense, that Russia is a democracy is gone. The mask is off.

Post Script:

As I was working on this article, though it is about Russia and Ukraine, I realized how lucky we are in the US. With all our problems we still have a fully functioning democracy. We have a free press. It is biased, but it is free. Without a free press we will have tyranny. I really did not appreciate that as much as I do now.

Also, I realized the beauty of our federal system. Russia is almost destined to oscillate between democracy and authoritarian control. It is very large country with a very diverse population that has different value systems and cultures. When you try to govern it from the top, you quickly discover that you have little control. In the early 2000s, at Putin’s request, Russia switched from locally elected governors to Putin-appointed governors, consolidating power not at the state level but at the top, with Putin. Putin’s argument was that local governors were corrupt. In truth however, the only way to govern Russia and preserve democracy is to have a US-like system. The federal government provides basic services –defense, interstate police (FBI), the legal system, etc. The majority of decisions are made on the local and state levels, based on the needs and values of those entities.

My Russian school friends and I were reminiscing about our school years. We started asking, “Where is this person? What happened to that one?” Sadly, we discovered that close to 15-20% of our class has died. None of them were even 50 years old. Most died under 40 from alcoholism. The demographic crisis is real in Russia. There are fewer people alive in Russia than when Putin took office 22 years ago.

Next: I’ll discuss neo Nazis in Ukraine.

 

List of Ukraine Charities:

 

Topley’s Top 10 – March 09, 2022

1. Worst Start for Stocks and Bonds ….What Happens Next?

Blackrock

Blackrock https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/insights/blackrock-investment-institute/weekly-commentary


2. QQQ -20% Revisit Previous Low

QQQ Right on Previous Low


3. Gold Close to Break Out.

GLD Gold ETF About to Top Covid Highs

Silver Still Well Below Highs

www.stockcharts.com


4. Gold ETF Inflows Have Not Hit Extreme Levels.

Jeff Degraff

It may feel like $GLD is a pile-on beneficiary, but the ETF flows over the last 65-days have not reached the extreme levels of panic buying that historically give us pause. #gold

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeffrey-degraaf-cmt-cfa/


5. Nickel Futures and EV Cars

The price of nickel futures that had spiked by 73% on Monday at the London Metals Exchange in a short squeeze whose squeezed party hadn’t been identified at the time spiked by another 100% on Tuesday intraday on the LME to over $100,000 per metric ton, when the LME halted trading at a price of $81,051.

Now details emerged as to who got short-squeezed: Chinese tycoon Xiang Guangda, chairman and founder of the world’s largest nickel producer, closely-held Tsingshan Holding Group, according to Bloomberg. Xiang, forced by margin calls from his company’s broker in China, closed out part of the short position in nickel futures, and this is the result:

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/03/08/nickel-futures-spike-ridiculously-trading-halted-in-short-squeeze-on-chinese-tycoon-facing-billions-in-losses/

CNBC-Nickel’s price surge could threaten automakers’ ambitious electric-vehicle plans

John Rosevear@JOHN__ROSEVEAR

KEY POINTS

·         Russia is a key supplier of nickel. Prices have surged since its invasion of Ukraine.

·         Nickel is a critical ingredient in the lithium-ion batteries used in most electric vehicles.

·         Automakers – and investors – will have to rethink EV plans if nickel supplies are constrained.

The price of nickel is surging as investors take stock of the new global reality: Russia, a key supplier of the metal, is now facing extensive sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine.

In an unusual step, the London Metal Exchange suspended nickel trading on Tuesday morning after three-month contract prices more than doubled to over $100,000 per ton.

Nickel is a critical ingredient in the lithium-ion battery cells used in most electric vehicles sold in – and planned for – the U.S. market. Its abrupt price surge has analysts and investors raising hard questions about automakers’ ambitious electric-vehicle programs.

Morgan Stanley auto analyst Adam Jonas has been among the loudest voices raising concerns. In a note published Monday, he said: “As of this writing, nickel is up 67.2% just today, representing around a $1,000 increase in the input cost of an average EV in the U.S.”

Jonas wrote that investors should reduce their expectations for automakers’ earnings, and for electric-vehicle sales penetration over the next few years, as nickel’s abrupt price surge could undermine the ambitious EV plans put forth by global automakers including General Motors and Ford Motor.

Why nickel is important to EV batteries

Lithium-ion battery cells have three layers:

  • a cathode that contains lithium mixed with nickel and other minerals such as cobalt, manganese or aluminum
  • an anode, made of carbon graphite and sometimes silicon
  • a separator made of a porous polymer

There’s also a liquid electrolyte, generally made from lithium salt that is dissolved in a solvent.

When the battery cell is charged, lithium ions are driven from the cathode to the anode. As the cell is discharged, the ions move back to the cathode, releasing energy.

In recent years, automakers have discovered that adding more nickel to the cathode can boost a battery’s energy density, which translates into more range per pound of batteries.

Older lithium-ion batteries used cathodes that were about one-third nickel. But in recent years, automakers have increased the percentage of nickel in cathodes to boost the batteries’ energy density and increase vehicle range. Most are now using cathodes that contain at least 60% nickel.

Some use even more, in part to reduce or eliminate cobalt, and in part to increase density for premium applications: The cathodes in cells that Korean battery giant LG Chem supplies to Tesla are 90% nickel, for instance.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/08/nickel-price-surge-could-threaten-automakers-ev-plans.html


6. Coinbase Right on Previous Low

Coinbase is following Bitcoin almost exactly …acting as spot ETF for Bitcoin

www.stockcharts.com


7. Commodities Still Cheap Vs. Stocks …

Jim Reid Deutsche Bank-Staying with commodities, in our first CoTD of the new decade (depending on your view of the calendar) in January 2021, we discussed the “Trade of the Decade?” (link here) where we showed that commodities were the cheapest they’d ever been to the S&P 500. Our view on commodities has always been that they have long periods of poor performance punctuated by exceptional returns, usually around inflationary periods, and also around conflicts which are clearly very unpredictable.

14 months on and commodities still look ‘cheap’ but not at the extreme cheap levels they were. Will we ever get back to a point where commodities are as expensive versus equities as they were in the 1970s and even around 2008? I would still say commodities are relatively cheap to financial assets but it’s quite clear that in the short term we could move rapidly in either direction given the conflict in Ukraine.

For a look at how poor long-term returns are in commodities see our annual long-term study here. Page 43 shows you that in the 150 years up to last summer the real return of oil, wheat, and copper was -0.42%, -1.12% and -0.56% per annum. The S&P 500 over the same period was +6.57% p.a. (albeit including dividends). So reiterating what I said earlier, commodities have been extremely cheap recently but through history they tend to see sporadic periods of exceptional performance and then long periods where they struggle to keep up with inflation and without the cushion of a dividend stream.


8. Small Business Owners Biggest Problem Inflation

Bespoke Investment Group

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/the-little-guy-eying-inflation


9. Multifamily Borrowing Closes 2021 on Strong Note; Record Year Anticipated in 2022

By Jamie Woodwell Multifamily lending alone is forecast to rise to $493 billion in 2022, according to MBA’s latest report.

$ in billions

The fourth quarter of 2021 saw a remarkable increase in multifamily borrowing and lending.

Loan originations were 79 percent higher in the final three months of the year compared to fourth-quarter 2020, and increased 44 percent from the third quarter of 2021. This is according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations.

Lending volumes are closely tied to the values of the underlying properties. In 2021 those values rose by more than 20 percent, and those increases will fuel further demand for mortgage debt in the coming years. Continued increases in property incomes, especially for multifamily properties, and stability in the ways investors value those incomes, should also support solid demand for mortgage capital, even in the face of modest increases in interest rates.

Increases in originations for other property types led the overall jump in lending volumes when compared to the fourth quarter of 2020. While the year-over-year gains for multifamily properties were smaller, 35 percent is still very strong.

2021 was a remarkable year and MBA expects 2022 to continue that momentum. Total mortgage borrowing and lending is expected to break $1 trillion for the first time in 2022, a 13 percent increase from 2021’s estimated volume of $900 billion.

Multifamily lending alone is forecast to rise to $493 billion in 2022, a new record and a 5 percent increase that surpasses last year’s record total of $470 billion.


Jamie Woodwell is the Mortgage Bankers Association’s vice president of commercial real estate research.

https://www.multihousingnews.com/multifamily-borrowing-closes-2021-on-strong-note-record-year-anticipated-in-2022/


10. 8 Signs to Immediately Recognize Someone With the Gift of Leadership

In ‘Servant Leadership in Action,’ best-selling author Raj Sisodia details the rare qualities of great leaders.

BY MARCEL SCHWANTES, FOUNDER AND CHIEF HUMAN OFFICER, LEADERSHIP FROM THE CORE@MARCELSCHWANTES

In Servant Leadership in Action, a collection of essays from 44 renowned servant leadership experts, Raj Sisodia, co-founder of the Conscious Capitalism movement and best-selling author, details the qualities of great leaders using the fitting acronym “Selfless”:

  • Strength
  • Enthusiasm
  • Love
  • Flexibility
  • Long-term orientation
  • Emotional intelligence
  • Systems intelligence
  • Spiritual intelligence

Sisodia says the Selfless approach to “conscious leadership“ reflects a blend of mature masculine and mature feminine qualities. He writes, “Too many leaders today manifest only immature hypermasculine qualities such as domination, aggression, hypercompetitiveness, winning at all costs, etc. They view every leadership challenge through the lens of war — a mindset that is at best win-lose, and usually lose-lose.”

Without further ado, here’s how Sisodia defines each letter of the acronym.

Strength

The strength of conscious leaders is resolute and unshakable in standing up to those who get in the way of their convictions. They are confident without being arrogant, and “draw on the strengths of their teams without depleting the power of those teams.” Strength, writes Sisodia, is exercised as “power with, not power over, those they seek to lead.”

Enthusiasm

Because of their commitment to moral authority, integrity, and a higher purpose, conscious leaders generate great energy and enthusiasm, not to be confused with the social traits of extroverted and gregarious people. “When you’re aligned with your purpose, you can’t help but be enthusiastic,” writes Sisodia. “That is hard to fake if you don’t have it.”

Love

The opposite of love is fear, and when fear permeates an organization, it stifles creativity and innovation. Love here is actionable and noble: creating psychological safety, connecting with employees, and caring for their well-being, and not just managing their work performance.

Flexibility

Leaders must be agile, adaptable, open, and able to switch modes and make swift changes while taking into consideration all the moving parts of the business. Sisodia offers up a great metaphor: “Conscious leaders are like golfers with a full set of clubs; they know how to select and implement the right approach for each situation.”

Long-Term Orientation

This is leading with an eye toward the future, beyond your tenure with the company, and even beyond even your lifetime. Conscious leaders gauge success by what happens to their businesses after they’re long gone. They ensure that the business will continue to operate wth the high principles and purpose it was founded on, a century from now.

Emotional Intelligence

Emotional intelligence (EQ) is a force to be reckoned with when it shows up with self-awareness (understanding oneself) and empathy (the ability to feel and understand what others are feeling) in day-to-day interactions and decision-making. Research, however, paints a different picture. “The higher the position in the organization, the lower the level of EQ, with the CEO typically having the lowest level,” writes Sisodia.

Systems Intelligence

Systems intelligence is thinking systemically about how each part of the business interrelates within the context of the larger organization. Conscious leaders “understand the roots of problems and how the problems relate to organizational design and culture,” writes Sisodia.

Spiritual Intelligence

This is the moral intelligence with which conscious leaders access their deeper meanings, values, purposes and higher motivations. It’s where the ability to distinguish between right and wrong, and right from left, comes from. It’s discerning at our core when things are beginning to go off track from our intended purpose. From this intelligence, we exercise our goodness, truth, beauty, and compassion.

https://www.inc.com/kevin-j-ryan/5g-small-business-karen-kerrigan.html?cid=sf01003

Topley’s Top 10 – March 08, 2022

1. Mega-Cap Tech/FAANG+…Widening Underperformance.

The group that investors thought would lead forever rolling over at rapid rate

Equities: US mega-caps continue to widen their underperformance.

Source: The Daily Shot

https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-march-7th-2022/


2. Nasdaq Stocks Trading Above 200 Day Moving Average…50day about to go thru 200day to downside

www.stockcharts.com


3. Most Popular Hedge Fund Positions Getting Smashed

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2020/03/05/animal-spirits-the-financial-rails-of-the-future/


4. Biggest One Week Move Ever in Thomson Reuters Commodity Index

Jim Reid

The week has started with a major increase in oil on the back of weekend comments from US Secretary of State Blinken raising the prospect of banning Russian crude imports. This follows the biggest week on record for our Commodity index (+13.4%) as our CoTD shows, eclipsing anything seen in the 1970s.

This is only the 7th day of March but at the time of writing (9am London time) here are the moves so far this month for a selection of commodities. UK Nat Gas +218%, Wheat +46%, Palladium +36%, WTI +30%, Brent +26%, Nickel +20%, Iron Ore +14%, Aluminium +14%, Copper 13%. By the time you read this, prices will probably change and gas in particular continues to trade in phenomenal intra-day ranges.

Before today’s move the rolling 3-month move in this overall commodity index was at +35.9%, just below the highest ever which was the +41.9% seen in the three months to August 11th 1973. We could easily beat this if markets continue to trade as they are.

So it’s going to be increasingly hard to ignore the comparisons to the 1970s as the commodity price action is increasingly resembling this. While oil hasn’t spiked by as much as in the 1970s (it more than tripled during the first oil shock from late1973), gas has increased by a much greater amount than at any point in history (see last week’s CoTD here) and the broader pace of the commodity rally is in many cases now beyond that seen in the 1970s.

For a recap a reminder that we published “Comparing the 2020s with the 1970s” (link here) and a “Back to the 1970s?” (link here) chart book back in October.


5. Ukraine War….GDP Hits to Eurozone and UK 2022-2024

Spike up in commodities has GDP forecasts globally dropping fast.


6. The Bond Volatility Index MOVE Hits 10 Year Highs

The MOVE Index is a well-recognized measure of U.S. interest rate volatility that tracks the movement in U.S. Treasury yield volatility implied by current prices of one-month over-the-counter options on 2-year, 5-year, 10-year and 30-year Treasuries. 

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-MOVE/


7. Airlines Now Face Gas Prices…-38% from Recent Highs.

Business Insider The surge in oil prices on the back of war in Ukraine is pointing to potential 22% downside for airline stocks, Barclays says

Carla Mozée 

  • Airline stocks could drop another 22% with oil prices soaring, Barclays said in a note Monday. 
  • The S&P 500 Airlines Index had lost more than 15% after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and fell further on Monday. 
  • Brent crude futures briefly climbed near $140 a barrel on Monday. 

Airline stocks are at risk to fall further as oil prices spike following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with Barclays seeing the potential for a key industry index to drop by more than 20%. 

Oil in recent days has kicked up to prices not seen since the 2008 global financial crisis, a move that in turn has pressured stocks in the airline sector. The S&P 500 Airline Index fell 11% during Monday’s session after having lost 15% through Friday from February 25, the day after Moscow attacked Ukraine. Russia is the world’s second-largest oil producer. 

Airline stocks had been “relatively insensitive” to rising oil prices until the invasion began nearly two weeks ago, said Barclays Monday. Brent crude, the international benchmark, on Monday briefly approaching $140 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate crude reached past $130 a barrel. Prices for fossil fuels have gained roughly 60% so far this year. 

Economists at Barclays estimate that surging energy prices will not stop the strength of the ongoing economic recovery in the US. But “our airlines analysts warn against the difficulty of airline companies matching higher fuel costs with higher fares,” wrote Maneesh S. Deshpande, head of US equity derivatives strategy at Barclays, in a research note. 

“If the 1990 oil price shock is any guide, airlines could fall an additional 20% from current levels,” he wrote, referring to the shock that stemmed from Iraq’s invasion of its neighbor Kuwait in August 1990.

From peak to bottom on June 6 through August 23, 1990, airline stocks as measured by the S&P 500 Airlines Index fell 37.6%, compared with the S&P 500’s 15.9% decline. 

“In comparison, airlines are currently 21% below their Feb-22 peak (vs the S&P -6.5%), implying a potential additional drop of 22% based on the above analysis,” said Deshpande in the note.

Russia accounts for around 8% of global oil supply. The US and its Western allies were discussing potential bans on Russian oil imports, reports said Monday, though some European leaders played down a potential embargo. Meanwhile, many traders have shunned Russian oil in the wake of the invasion.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/oil-prices-airline-stocks-russia-ukraine-invasion-war-commodities-travel-2022-3


8. China Bonds and Stocks Seeing Major Outflows.

China Sees Record Bond-Market Retreat by Foreign Investors

Ye Xie https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-sees-record-bond-market-192105507.html

Large Cap Chinese Stocks Break to New Lows Breaking Covid 2020 Levels

www.stockcharts.com


9. Follow Up to Yesterday’s Comments on Euro Banks

UBS Has $200 Million Exposure to Russian Assets in Loans to Rich ByMarion Halftermeyer

Want the lowdown on European markets? In your inbox before the open, every day. Sign up here.

UBS Group AG has about $200 million exposure to Russian assets that were used as collateral in loans to clients at its wealth unit.

The Swiss bank also identified “a small number” of wealth management clients who have been sanctioned in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it said in its annual report, published Monday. Those clients had less than $10 million in total loans outstanding as of March 3.

“We are working to implement sanctions imposed by Switzerland, the U.S., the EU, the UK and others,” Chief Executive Officer Ralph Hamers and Chairman Axel Weber said in the report.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-07/ubs-has-200-million-exposure-to-russian-assets-in-loans-to-rich?srnd=premium&sref=GGda9y2L

UBS -30% from highs

www.stockcharts.com


10. 3 Psychological Nutrients Workers Need

Keys to improving worker engagement, commitment, performance, and mental health.

Ryan Jenkins CSP

KEY POINTS

  • Psychologists have identified the three human psychological needs necessary for optimal human functioning.
  • The universal and innate psychological nutrients are competency, autonomy, and relatedness.
  • When all three psychological nutrients are satisfied, workers experience improved passion, engagement, and commitment.

When faced with a nutrient deficiency, people seek to replenish those nutrients. When we are physically malnourished, we find sustenance. The same holds true mentally.

Psychologists Edward Deci and Richard Ryan have identified the three human psychological needs necessary for optimal human functioning. The universal and innate psychological nutrients are competency, autonomy, and relatedness. Satisfaction of these basic needs promotes mental health and intrinsic motivation, which drives engagement and higher performance at work.

A deficiency in any of these three psychological nutrients can cause workers to look elsewhere to get nourishment. When all three psychological nutrients are satisfied, workers experience the highest-quality motivation that fuels passion, engagement, and commitment. Might these psychological nutrients hold the key for reversing the Great Resignation?

Psychological Nutrient #1: Autonomy

Autonomy is the agency to do things on your terms. It’s the freedom from external constraints on behavior. Autonomy does not mean to be independent of others but, rather, constitutes a feeling of overall psychological liberty and freedom of internal will. When a person is autonomously motivated, their performance, wellness, and engagement are heightened rather than if a person is told what to do.

Autonomy is the opposite of micromanagement. Workers feel empowered when they have choices and when they are trusted to make the right decisions. Increasing someone’s options and choices has been proven to increase their intrinsic motivation.

Workers who have clear direction and the freedom to act on their own accord with the ability to take direct action satisfy their need for the psychological nutrient of autonomy.

What will workers say if they quit due to an autonomy deficiency?

  • Their manager was too hands-on or micromanaged them.
  • They want more independence.
  • They want a better work–life balance.
  • They want more career paths.
  • They are conflicted about workplace policy.

How much autonomy does your team have to think and act on their own terms?

Psychological Nutrient #2: Competence

Competence is the need to feel capable. Competence occurs when someone is able to effectively meet the demands of their environment. Competency evokes feelings that someone is good at something.

When workers feel competent, they feel what they do is effective and masterful and can contribute to accomplishing worthwhile goals. Relevant feedback and expressing strong beliefs in the capabilities of others is key for satisfying the need for the psychological nutrient of competence.

article continues after advertisement

What will workers say if they quit due to a competence deficiency?

  • They need more of a challenge.
  • They feel uninspired.
  • They want to feel valued.
  • They feel that they have a lack of job growth or career advancement.
  • They need more feedback.
  • They want more recognition.
  • They have vague goals or no direction.
  • They want a clearer company vision.

Does your team feel competent in that they have the right skills and tools to contribute?

Psychological Nutrient #3: Relatedness

Relatedness is the need to feel involved with others. Relatedness is shorthand for being connected to colleagues, friends, family, and community. Humans have an innate need to belong. It is important to both make a contribution to the group and to feel cared for by the group.

Workers who are personally and emotionally connected to their colleagues and manager satisfy their need for the psychological nutrient of relatedness.

Relatedness is perhaps the most crucial psychological nutrient because high-quality relationships are able to provide individuals with a bond to another person while simultaneously reinforcing their needs for autonomy and competence.

What will workers say if they quit due to a relatedness deficiency?

  • They are seeking a better management relationship.
  • They have poor relationships with coworkers.
  • They are looking to live somewhere else.
  • Their company culture isn’t a good fit.

How connected does your team feel to one another?

Looking for a way to measure how disconnected your team is and gain custom solutions for improving your team’s connections? Check out the Team Connection Assessment here. It’s empirically validated to measure the strength and quality of connections teams have with their teammates, manager, and the work itself.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-case-connection/202203/3-psychological-nutrients-workers-need

Topley’s Top 10 – March 02, 2022

1. Crude Up 75% One Year …Hits 2014 Resistance Levels

Wolf Street

This chart shows how fast production was ramped up until the price collapsed in mid-2014, which caused some slow-down in production as oil and gas companies filed for bankruptcy one after the other. But then production began to surge again in the fall of 2016 after the price bounced off the bottom of $26 a barrel. And by September 2018, the price began to collapse again as production surged from record to record:

Now the industry is in no hurry to increase production. The survivors are finally making money at these prices, and they have no interest in pushing down the price again.

Crude Oil WTI Spikes: The Storm Today after the Calm Yesterday–by Wolf Richter  https://wolfstreet.com/2022/03/01/crude-oil-wti-spikes-the-storm-on-tuesday-after-the-calm-on-monday/


2. Russian Sanctions Being Offset by $100 Oil

WSJ By Jon Sindreu Follow-It is hard to conceive a complete collapse of Russia’s economy as long as it can keep selling its oil at almost $100 a barrel.   Ever since invading Crimea in 2014, Moscow has sought to reduce its foreign dependency. Imports have been partly replaced by domestic products, the Russian central bank has beefed up its reserve pot, linkages with foreign banks have been reduced and a Russian alternative to Swift has been developed.

Central Bank Squeeze Lacks Energy to Cripple Russia’s Economy https://www.wsj.com/articles/central-bank-squeeze-lacks-energy-to-cripple-russias-economy-11646062881?mod=itp_wsj&ru=yahoo


3. Five-Year Break Even Rates Turn Back Up Above Fed Target Rate

FRED Charts

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE

Chance of 50bps Fed Raise Falling Fast …Dave Lutz Jones Trading..Fed’s meeting in 15 days. Market expectations around the size of the coming hike have dropped and are currently BELOW a full 25-bps move.


4. Visual of Modern Day Geopolitical Crisis Events…Keeping in Mind Ukraine Could Be Bigger than All of Them

Capital Group

Robert Lind-Capital Group  https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/russia-ukraine-conflict-threatens-global-economy.html?sfid=1988901890&cid=80670215&et_cid=80670215&cgsrc=SFMC&alias=A-btn-LP-2-CISynCTA


5. PayPal -70% from Highs

www.stockcharts.com


6. Hedging of Taiwan ETF Soars Plus $65m in Outflows but Chart Holds Up

Hedging of Taiwan ETF Soars Amid Russia’s Ukraine Invasion-BloombergMaria Elena Vizcaino

The put-to-call ratio on the largest exchange-traded fund that buys Taiwanese equities — or the amount of outstanding bearish options contracts relative to bullish ones — has jumped to the highest since November. That signals traders are concerned about the island’s stocks, which may suffer if China uses Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a distraction to ramp up tensions with Taiwan.

“Investors are worried China might invade Taiwan,” said Lu Yu, a money manager at Allianz Global Investors in San Diego. “I feel like it’s a spillover effect. I don’t think it’s likely right now.”

READ: Ukraine Invasion Unnerves Global Funds Bracing for Taiwan Risk

U.S. Commander of Pacific Air Forces General Kenneth S. Wilsbach said two weeks ago his country was concerned that China will take advantage of the tensions between Russia and Ukraine and “try to do something” in the Indo-Pacific region. Still, Taiwan’s president played down concerns that the conflict in Europe could trigger a similar crisis in Asia.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hedging-taiwan-etf-surges-wake-180911777.html

EWT Chart Sideways for One Year

www.stockcharts.com


7. This Chart is a Few Years Old but Gives Good Idea on German Military Reduction

https://www.statista.com/chart/13077/the-german-military-is-woefully-unprepared-for-action/


8. NFT sales hit $565 million over the past week. These were the 5 best-selling digital collections.

Business Insider

Matthew Fox 

Jan 26, 2022, 10:39 AM

–NFT sales had a breakthrough year in 2021, with total sales volume surging to $14 billion.

  • The NFT market is dominated by a handful of standout leaders due to their popularity and rarity. 
  • These are the five best-selling digital collectibles that helped drive $555 million in NFT sales over the past week. 

The cryptocurrency boom over the past few years has helped propel a newer market to record heights: digital collectibles known as NFTs. 

In fact, 2021 was a breakthrough year for NFTs, with total sales volume topping $14 billion as artists, investors, and entrepreneurs descend upon the nascent Web3 space. 

NFTs, or non-fungible tokens, are unique, irreplaceable, mostly digital items that users buy and sell online.

NFTs use blockchain technology to keep a digital record of ownership, similar to cryptocurrencies. They were first launched on ethereum, the same blockchain that supports the cryptocurrency ether, and most NFTs can still only be purchased using ether.

Despite the ongoing sell-off in cryptocurrencies, NFT sales have held up relatively well. In the past week alone, sales of NFTs hit $565 million, according to data from NonFungible.com.

With NFT sales soaring, these are the five best-selling NFT collections over the past week, according to NonFungible.

5. FLUF World

7-Day Sales Volume: $7.9 million
Number of Sales: 670
Highest Sale Price: $99,742

OpenSea

Explainer:“FLUFs have been programmatically generated from 270 attributes across 14 categories to be entirely unique by at least three degrees of separation. This also excludes their expression, dance, scene, and soundtrack. FLUFs are stored as ERC721 tokens on the Ethereum blockchain.”

4. Doodles

7-Day Sales Volume: $9.3 million
Number of Sales: 318
Highest Sale Price: $214,666

OpenSea

Explainer: “Doodles come in a joyful range of colors, traits, and sizes with a collection size of 10,000. Doodles are a funky bunch that like to role play or transmogrify themselves into delicious treats. Holding a Doodle allows you to participate in coordinating the Doodles Community Treasury.”

3. The Sandbox

7-Day Sales Volume: $9.9 million
Number of Sales: 910
Highest Sale Price: $84,553

A snapshot from The Sandbox virtual metaverse The Sandbox

Explainer: “The Sandbox is a community-driven UGC-voxel platform where users own their LAND and host their creative magic.”

2. CryptoPunks

7-Day Sales Volume: $35.3 million
Number of Sales: 183
Highest Sale Price: $951,844

CryptoPunks Rokas Tenys

Explainer: “10,000 unique collectible characters with proof of ownership stored on the Ethereum blockchain. The project that inspired the modern CryptoArt movement.”

1. Bored Ape Yacht Club

7-Day Sales Volume: $75.8 million
Number of Sales: 916
Highest Sale Price: $834,938

This Bored Ape is just one of the NFTs auctioned at Sotheby’s recently. Sotheby’s

Explainer: “BAYC is a collection of 10,000 Bored Ape NFTs — unique digital collectibles living on the Ethereum blockchain. Your Bored Ape doubles as your Yacht Club membership card, and grants access to members-only benefits.”

The 5 Best-Selling NFT Collections of Last Week Include Doodles, FLUF (businessinsider.com)


9. 75% Of People Who Bought a Home During Pandemic Have Regrets

From Barry Ritholtz Blog

75% of people who bought a home during the pandemic have regrets: Here’s why

Source: Grow  https://ritholtz.com/2022/03/10-tuesday-am-reads-370/


10. Feeling Fatigued and Burned Out? Inflammation May Be Playing a Role

Srini Pillay M.D.

Are you wondering why you feel fatigued all the time?

KEY POINTS

  • A recent study showed that fatigue associated with the COVID-19 pandemic may be due to brain inflammation.
  • The inflammation was probably attributable to immune mechanisms that were activated because of social isolation.
  • Approaching your doctor is the first thing to do, but other tips to reduce inflammation and improve cognition include socializing and exercise.

 

Nearly three in five U.S. adult workers surveyed in 20211 by the American Psychological Association reported negative impacts of work-related stress, including a lack of interest, motivation, energy, and effort. Employees also reported experiencing cognitive weariness (36 percent), emotional exhaustion (32 percent), and physical fatigue (44 percent). Somehow, the pandemic-related burnout has felt different,2 and people can’t quite account for why they feel this way. A doctor even wrote about how it might have permanently changed him.3 And, until recently, there was no information clear enough to point to a possible reason, until this study from Massachusetts General Hospital in collaboration with King’s College London, The Maudsley NIHR Maudsley Biomedical Research Centre, and other collaborators.4

Study Comparing Brains Before and During Pandemic Lockdowns

This study compared 57 pre-pandemic and 15 pandemic data sets from individuals originally enrolled as control subjects for various completed or ongoing research studies available, with a confirmed negative test for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies. The investigators used a combination of brain-imaging modalities as well as blood samples to investigate whether there were any differences in the brains of healthy people before and during the pandemic after the lockdowns.

The study found that healthy individuals examined after the enforcement of the lockdown had elevated brain levels of two independent neuroinflammatory markers (the 18 kDa translocator protein, TSPO, and myoinositol) compared to pre-lockdown participants. And participants endorsing higher symptom burden showed higher TSPO signal in the hippocampus (mood alteration, mental fatigue), intraparietal sulcus, and precuneus (physical fatigue), compared to those reporting little or no symptoms. This implied that inflammation in these regions may have accounted for their mental and physical fatigue and mood alterations. This study provided preliminary signals that the lockdown had the effect of increasing brain inflammation, and this was probably due to immune mechanisms that were activated because of social isolation.

Prior studies would support this hypothesis. One study illustrated that adverse social experiences (social isolation, perceived social threat) may induce inflammatory responses while suppressing antiviral immunity, whereas positive experiences of social connection may reduce inflammation and bolster antiviral responses.5 Social isolation has also been associated with impaired memory6 and immune dysfunction in other studies.7 And studies have also demonstrated that social isolation could increase immune markers such as IL-6,8 and it could also increase microglial cell activity in the brain as part of this inflammatory response.9,10 Called sterile neuroinflammation, these changes resemble changes caused by infections, and they are correlated with fatigue and anxiety.11,12

What You Can Do

Aside from checking in with your primary care physician to clarify what is happening, there are a few things that you may try to help to get yourself out of his fatigued state:

1.   Socializing: The pandemic might have left you feeling somewhat isolated, but also perhaps pleased that you don’t have to interact with people. This may have left you smugly on your own, and you may even think you prefer this. However, to the extent that you can safely socialize, it could help to be around other people. A large number of studies have shown that social isolation impacts your life negatively in a variety of ways.13

2.   Diet: In her book, This Is Your Brain on Food,14 Harvard psychiatrist Dr. Uma Naidoo explains that neuroinflammation is a real thing. She recommends anti-inflammatory and fiber-rich foods. Spices like turmeric with black pepper can help, and she refers to how helpful it can be to eat vegetables that are the colors of the rainbow, such as peppers, tomatoes, and leafy greens. Take this idea to your doctor to personalize your diet for you.

3.   Nature-based imagery: Studies have shown that viewing nature15,16 can have beneficial effects on the brain. We have demonstrated17 that people can feel clearer and focus better with less anxiety and emotional distress just 10 minutes after viewing nature in virtual reality, and we have also found that people are less fixated on worry.18 Both studies have been accepted by peer-reviewed journals and will be published soon.

4.   Physical exercise: Physical exercise can improve the neuroimmune response19 and can be anti-inflammatory.20 Work with your doctor to determine what routine is best for you.

Social isolation could lead to brain inflammation. But there are things that you can start doing today about this, so why not begin now?

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/debunking-myths-the-mind/202203/feeling-fatigued-and-burned-out-inflammation-may-be-playing

Topley’s Top 10 – March 01, 2022

Regarding Ukraine Situation

Malcolm Gladwell David vs Goliath Stat-  “1/3 of wars in history won by the smaller weaker force. Guerrilla or unconventional forces win 63% of time”

https://www.amazon.com/David-Goliath-Underdogs-Misfits-Battling/dp/0316204374/ref=sr_1_3?crid=38XOCO3WVUFYI&keywords=malcolm+gladwell+books&qid=1646064979&sprefix=malcolm+gladwell+books%2Caps%2C64&sr=8-3

 Both won several world heavyweight boxing championships, known for smooth footwork and fierce jabs. One never faced a knockdown in the ring. The other was undefeated for a decade.

Now, after Hall of Fame boxing careers, Vitali Klitschko and Wladimir Klitschko are again on the world stage, united in Ukraine’s fight against Russia’s invasion.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2022-02-25/two-ukrainian-brothers-former-world-boxing-champions-take-up-arms-against-russian-invaders

 Former Miss Ukraine Joins Fight Against Russia

https://www.ndtv.com/offbeat/former-miss-ukraine-anastasia-lenna-joins-fight-against-russia-2794430


1. Markets Rally on the Invasion

Irrelevant Investor-Michael Batnick

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2022/02/23/animal-spirits-the-craziest-housing-market-ever/


2. Stock Market History Post 10-15% Corrections.

https://i0.wp.com/lplresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/2.24.22-Blog-Chart-4.png?ssl=1


3. Summary of Russian Produced Commodities

The chart-Here’s a refresher chart from Goldman on the commodities that Russia produces:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-are-the-most-important-s-p-500-and-nasdaq-levels-to-watch-right-now-says-this-strategist-11646049790?mod=home-page


4. Russian Market Holds Covid Lows…..Ukraine Biggest Trading Partner in European Union and China More Dependent on Ukraine than Russia.

NY Times Friedman–Then think about this: Thanks to rapid globalization, the E.U. is already Ukraine’s biggest trading partner — not Russia. In 2012, Russia was the destination for 25.7 percent of Ukrainian exports, compared with 24.9 percent going to the E.U. Just six years later, after Russia’s brutal seizure of Crimea and support of separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine and Ukraine’s forging of closer ties with the E.U. economically and politically, “Russia’s share of Ukrainian exports had fallen to only 7.7 percent, while the E.U.’s share shot up to 42.6 percent,” according to a recent analysis published by Bruegel.org.

But Xi is nobody’s fool. Here are a couple of other interesting facts from the wired world: First, China’s economy is more dependent on Ukraine than Russia’s. According to Reuters, “China leapfrogged Russia to become Ukraine’s biggest single trading partner in 2019, with overall trade totaling $18.98 billion last year, a nearly 80 percent jump from 2013. … China became the largest importer of Ukrainian barley in the 2020-21 marketing year,” and about 30 percent of all of China’s corn imports last year came from farms in Ukraine.

Second, China overtook the United States as the European Union’s biggest trading partner in 2020, and Beijing cannot afford for the E.U. to be embroiled in conflict with an increasingly aggressive Russia and unstable Putin. China’s stability depends — and the legitimacy of the ruling Communist Party rests — on Xi’s ability to sustain and grow his already massive middle class. And that depends on a stable and growing world economy.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/25/opinion/putin-russia-ukraine.html

Russian Stock Market ETF-RSX ….Holds Covid Lows for Now


5. Russia Invasion of Ukraine May Have Changed Military Spending for a Long Time

Jim Reid Deutsche Bank

As I mentioned in my EMR this morning, it seems the geopolitical tectonic plates shifted this weekend. Perhaps the most significant was German Chancellor Scholz’s announcement that from 2024 Germany will spend at least 2% of GDP on defence each year. The first CoTD shows that their average between 2011-2020 was 1.2%. While the amounts here aren’t game changers, the turn in sentiment towards defence is and its one likely to be followed by other countries as they face up to the new world order.

The second chart shows a time series of this for a smaller selection of countries. Defence spending has fallen consistently in the post-WWII world and over the last 20 years has been comfortably below 2% for many countries.

Interestingly, as recently as the mid-1980s, the UK spent roughly the same on defence, education and health. For perspective this year they are expected to spend £60bn on defence, £124bn on education and £230bn on health.

So while we are unlikely to see a return to defence spending levels seen in the past, the last week’s events are likely to mark a turning point.


6. Russia Ruble a Non-Factor in Global Currencies


7. New York City Prime Properties Held by Russian Oligarchs

Mark Elliott

@markmobility

https://twitter.com/markmobility


8. Value Performance Over Growth Highest in a Decade.

The Daily Shot Blog Equities: It’s been over a decade since we saw this level of growth factor underperformance vs. value (over a 3-month period).

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence

https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-february-25th-2022/


9. The U.S. Needs 1.55m Homes Per Year for Next 10 Years

John Burns Real Estate -Chris Porter updated the 10 year housing demand calc we did in our book 6 years ago.
We need to average 1.55 mil homes /year over 10 years, up from 1.37 mil in the oversupply situation in 2016.
1.7 million undersupply is at normal affordability, which is not the case today.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/johnburns7/


10. If You Want to Fix Burnout, You First Have to Understand Its 6 Main Causes

Fixing burnout is way more complicated than just longer vacations and taking up yoga.

BY JESSICA STILLMAN, CONTRIBUTOR, INC.COM@ENTRYLEVELREBEL

It will probably come as no surprise to you that every time pollsters ask people how they’re feeling about work at the moment, they hear the same thing. People are really, really burnt out. In response to one recent survey by HR tech company Workhuman, 41 percent of respondents claimed to have burnt out in just the last few months. Another survey by The Hartford found an overall burnout rate of 61 percent. I could go on (and on and on). 

But while the fact that a huge number of workers are feeling burnt out after nearly two years of pandemic mayhem may be glaringly obvious, the exact reasons why so many are suffering are much less well understood, according to Jennifer Moss, the author of a new book entitled The Burnout Epidemic. 

Employers often think battling burnout is just about offering more vacation time or more generous perks. But Moss insists in the book that “burnout is a complex constellation of poor workplace practices and policies, antiquated institutional legacies, roles and personalities at higher risk, and system, societal issues that have been unchanged, plaguing us for too long.” 

In short, burnout is complicated. And if you want to effectively address the problem, you have to take a long, hard look at the underlying issues driving it. A recent Greater Good Science Center article covering Moss’s book helpfully laid out six of the biggest problems. 

1. Excessive workload

No shock here. Overwork is a huge contributor to burnout, and WHO data shows excessively long hours lead to more than half a million deaths a year. Fixing the problem is mostly in the hands of employers, according to Moss, who suggests companies “identify low-priority goals for their employees” so they can better manage their workloads, “provide more support when needs change suddenly,” and consider implementing a four-day workweek, among other measures. 

2. Perceived lack of control 

“Studies show that autonomy at work is important for well-being, and being micromanaged is particularly de-motivating to employees. Yet many employers fall back on watching their employees’ every move, controlling their work schedule, or punishing them for missteps,” notes Greater Good. Offering employees more choice over where, when, and how to work can be an incredibly effective way to battle burnout if you suspect a lack of autonomy is a contributing factor. 

3. Lack of recognition 

This isn’t just about paying people what they’re worth, though that’s essential if you want to avoid burning out your people, but also about ensuring that employees know their contributions are seen and valued. Rather than stir envy and unhealthy competition by handing out rewards to only top contributors, Moss suggests “gratitude from top leadership and peer-to-peer gratitude.”

4. Poor relationships 

Knowing and liking your colleagues as whole, real people is a strong predictor of happiness at work, while a lack of social connection at work is a predictor for burnout. That’s why Moss recommends employers “give people spaces where they can connect with colleagues around non-work-related topics,” as well as “encouraging volunteerism and building more inclusive cultures.”

5. Lack of fairness 

Again, it’s no shock that feeling unfairly treated really ticks people off and saps their motivation for work. Bosses will never be able to eliminate every perceived slight and grievance, but they can provide mechanisms to report and resolve these issues. Being ruthless about rooting out bias and discrimination is, of course, also essential.

6. Values mismatch 

As Harvard professor Arthur Brooks has pointed out, the best job for you is the job that matches your values. The opposite is also true. The jobs that are most likely to cause burnout are the ones where we feel in conflict with our deepest commitments. Depending on the particulars of the situation, fixing this issue can involve either hiring people whose values better align with the company’s mission or having the company actually stand up for the values it says it believes in. (Or from the employee’s perspective, thinking about how to ditch your ethically dubious employer.) 

Every case of burnout is unique, with its own collection of causes both personal and professional. But Moss’s list of common contributing factors is a starting point for both bosses and employees to ponder the real roots of feelings of exhaustion, so they can battle back against the current burnout epidemic.

OCT 12, 2021

The opinions expressed here by Inc.com columnists are their own, not those of Inc.com.

https://www.inc.com/jessica-stillman/leadership-jennifer-moss-burnout-epidemic.html?cid=sf01003

Topley’s Top 10 – February 28, 2022

1. The Markets for Now Making Lower Highs.

Stock markets need to break pattern of making lower highs….3 in play right now

QQQ—same pattern

www.stockcharts.com


2. Bitcoin -47% Correction High to Low….But Held Lows Twice in Last Month


3. KWEB Chinese Internet ETF -67% from Highs…Breaks to new lows.

Chinese Internet Stock ETF–50day just breaking thru 200day to the downside….BABA had mediocre earnings pushing stock and ETF to new lows

www.stockcharts.com


4. SPACS—105 SPACS from 2021 Yet to Find a Target Company

Barrons-A little more than half, or 58%, of those SPACs have found and closed acquisitions, an analysis by Barron’s has found. That means that 105 SPACs, including 33 that have deals pending and 72 that have yet to find a target, haven’t been able to complete a merger.

SPACs become wildly popular during the second half of 2020—the 247 SPACs that went public that year was, at the time, the most ever. That record was toppled in 2021 when 613 blank-check companies began trading, according to Dealogic.

SPACs Are Scrambling to Find Mergers. What That Means for Investors.-By Luisa Beltran Foo w https://www.barrons.com/articles/spacs-mergers-51645665116?mod=past_edition

https://www.barrons.com/articles/spacs-mergers-51645665116?mod=past_editions


5. Moderna Stock -65% Correction….They hold 13x more cash than pre-covid when stock traded at $20

www.stockcharts.com


6. After Russian Invasion of Ukraine…Europe (VGK) Still Outperforming S&P Year to Date

SPY -9.2% vs. VGK Vanguard Europe -7.6%

www.yahoofinance.com


7. Aluminum and Nickel Spike to New Highs on Huge Exposure to Russia/Ukraine

JJU Aluminum ETF

JJN-Nickel Index

www.stockcharts.com


8. Americans are No Longer Moving Every 6 Years….Percent of Americans Moving Hits New Lows

https://www.vox.com/22939038/rents-rising-home-prices-americans-moving-residential-stagnation-stuck-mobility-freedom


9. Ukrainian Opinion of Russia Changed Dramatically After Crimea

One interesting chart we’ve seen, originally in the NYTimes, was of Ukrainian public opinion towards Russia. As shown above, before Russia’s annexation of Crimea — the peninsula in the south — Ukrainian public opinion towards Russia was overwhelmingly positive.

Respondents to surveys from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology showed that more than 80% of Ukrainians polled had mostly positive views towards Russia. After the annexation that figure dropped dramatically, and hadn’t recovered even prior to Russia’s latest invasion.

Regional variation

Not every region of Ukraine feels the same. Residents of western Ukraine are a lot less likely to have a positive view of Russia (21% of respondents) than their counterparts in the east — where 53% had a positive view.

www.chartr.com

Putin’s attack on Ukraine echoes Hitler’s takeover of Czechoslovakia

Michael Ruane – Yesterday 1:15 PM

By 1939, parts of Czechoslovakia had already been carved off and taken over by Nazi Germany, which claimed that millions of ethnic Germans were being persecuted there.

The previous September, European powers, seeking to avoid war, had acquiesced and done nothing.

But six months later, German troops were massed on the Czech border, as Nazi leader Adolf Hitler railed and threatened the country with destruction.

 

On March 15, 1939, the sickly Czech president, Emil Hacha, was in Hitler’s study surrounded by the Führer’s henchmen.

“Hitler was at his most intimidating,” historian Ian Kershaw wrote in his 2000 biography of the Nazi leader. “He launched into a violent tirade against the Czechs.” The Nazis needed to take over Czechoslovakia to protect Germany. Hacha must agree or his country would be immediately attacked and Prague, its capital, bombed.

Hacha fainted, according to Kershaw, but was revived and gave in to Hitler’s demand. German troops marched in a few hours later. Hitler said it was the happiest day of his life.

Russia strikes Ukraine from multiple directions; Biden vows ‘consequences’

Russia’s Vladimir Putin did not bother to speak with Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, before launching his assault Thursday. But some observers see brutal similarities to Hitler’s seizure of Czechoslovakia just before World War II.

“This is all truly dictated by our national interests and dictated by care for the future of our country,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Thursday after the Russian assault began.

Putin on Monday claimed pro-Russian residents of Ukraine faced “genocide.”

“The killing of civilians … the abuse of people, including children, women and the elderly, continues unabated,” he said. “There is no end in sight.”

“Neanderthal and aggressive nationalism and neo-Nazism … have been elevated in Ukraine to the rank of national policy,” he said. “How much longer can one put up with this?”

In March 1938, during the run-up to World War II, Hitler had first engineered the Nazi takeover of Austria, which already had strong pro-Nazi sympathies.

Seven months later, he was plotting the seizure of part of Czechoslovakia, claiming that ethnic Germans in the Sudeten regions bordering eastern Germany were being mistreated.

“I must also declare before the German people that in the Sudeten German problem my patience is now at an end,” Hitler said on Sept. 26, 1938. Czechoslovakia must “give the Germans their freedom, or we will get this freedom for ourselves.”

Four days later, during the famous Munich conference — now known as the centerpiece of the “appeasement” of the Nazis — Great Britain, France and Italy agreed to the handover of the Sudeten region to Germany, hoping it would prevent further aggression.

“It is the last territorial claim which I have to make in Europe,” Hitler said. Within six months, he took the rest of Czechoslovakia, and on Sept. 1, 1939, he attacked Poland, starting World War II.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-e2-80-99s-attack-on-ukraine-echoes-hitler-e2-80-99s-takeover-of-czechoslovakia/ar-AAUgcx9?ocid=uxbndlbing


10. Patience is not Passive

Farnum Street

“Patience is not passive, on the contrary, it is concentrated strength.” ― Bruce Lee

People wait in different ways. Some are passive. Others are active. These two approaches are as different as the results they yield.

Passive patience is waiting for the world to give you the thing you want. A lot of people live their life with passive patience. Rather than go after the promotion at work they expect it to fall in their lap. Rather than go after the love of their life, they sit back and expect to be courted. Rather than chase their dreams, they wait for just the right opening that always seems around the corner but never comes. These people have the wrong kind of patience.

Active patience is different. Active patience demands action and intention, even while waiting for results. Active patience means not only applying for the promotion but taking your time to build the skills you need to put yourself in the best position to succeed. Active patience means starting the business, writing the book, going after the love of your life.

Active patience puts you in the best position to get what you want. There is almost always an action you can take to improve the odds.

Active in the moment but patient with the results.

Active patience.

(Share this Tiny Thought on Twitter)

https://fs.blog/brain-food/february-27-2022/

Topley’s Top 10 – February 22, 2022

1. Political and Geopolitical Events Impact on S&P 500

Zerohedge

2. Updated Trailing and Forward Price to Earnings Ratios

FactSet

The trailing 12-month P/E ratio for $SPX of 21.8 is below the 5-year average (23.1) and above the 10-year average (20.0). https://bit.ly/3sQM7aR

The forward 12-month P/E ratio for $SPX of 19.2 is above the 5-year average (18.6) and the 10-year average (16.7). https://bit.ly/3sQM7aR

https://twitter.com/FactSet

3. Reaction to Earnings Surprise by Sector Thru Friday

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright

4. European Financials Outperforming

Michael Gayed Lead Lag Report ….Banks in U.S. have Outperformed since last year….Euro financials also adding sizeable alpha this year

https://www.leadlagreport.com/

EUFN Ishares Euro Financials close to breaking out of 11 year sideways move

www.stockcharts.com

5. Russia Stock ETF -30% Correction from Highs.

Russian ETF Hit $14 during Covid then rallied to $33 as energy prices rose…$23 last

www.stockcharts.com

6. Top 10 Companies with Exposure to Russia/Ukraine

The Daily Shot Blog

7. Emerging Markets After Sucking Wind for Years…Start 2022 Beating U.S. Stocks and Bonds.

LPL Research-Asset Class Returns Thru Friday

https://lplresearch.com/2022/02/18/weekly-market-performance-the-fed-and-ukraine-influence-this-weeks-markets/

8. Metaverse Jump in Mentions on Corporate Transcripts

Blackrock Blog-A giant leap into the metaverse
Momentum of ‘metaverse’ mentions in company transcripts vs. other themes

Reid Menge https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/insights/metaverse-investing-in-the-future

9. The Economics of Food Delivery

CHARTR -Indeed, many of the restaurants on aggregator platforms may actually be losing money (70c) on an average order. Drivers are making ~$9 per order including tip before considering their own expenses, and the platforms are generally squeezing out just a 3-4% contribution margin.

Some of these numbers come from the National Restaurant Association and may tell a slightly different story to DoorDash’s own analysis, but the fact remains that despite ~10 years of rapid growth, food delivery profits are hard to find. Add to the mix the new and fiercely competitive ultra-fast grocery delivery market, and things get even murkier still.

Please sir, I want some more

With trends like larger average orders, more users to optimize multi-order trips, better technology, more in-app advertising and higher market concentration, these numbers are going to keep evolving — but how any improvement in economics is shared between stakeholders remains to be seen.

If there’s a local spot you’d like to support (it is Friday after all), your best bet is probably still to go to the restaurant direct.

Move fast and break even

US delivery behemoth DoorDash reported their full year 2021 results on Wednesday, shaking off some doubts that food delivery demand would slow amidst re-opening with 369 million orders coming through the platform in the final quarter of last year.

That number was ahead of expectations, and sent DoorDash’s share price higher, but it still wasn’t enough for the company to make a net profit, instead notching a $155m loss.

That’s not a surprise to anyone familiar with the industry. Some great research from our friends at McKinsey suggests the economics of food delivery are still challenging for everyone involved – delivery companies, drivers and restaurants.

www.chartr.com

10. 34 Things You Need to Give Up to Be Successful

INC…BY BENJAMIN HARDY, PH.D., CONTRIBUTOR, INC.COM@BENJAMINPHARDY

1. Wasting five minutes.

When you have five minutes of down time, how do you spend that time? Most people use it as an excuse to rest or laze.

By lazing for five five-minute breaks each day, we waste 25 minutes daily. That’s 9,125 minutes per year (25 X 365). Sadly, my guess is we’re wasting far more time than that.

I was once told by my ninth-grade English teacher that if I read every time I had a break?–?even if the break was just for a minute or two?–?that I’d get a lot more reading done than expected. She was right. Every time I finished my work early, or had a spare moment, I’d pick up a book and read.

How 4 Top Performers Maintain Their Mental and Physical Wellbeing How we spend our periodic five-minute breaks is a determining factor in what we achieve in our lives. Every little bit adds up.Why can we justify wasting so much time?

2. Not valuing one dollar.

I was recently in Wal-Mart with my mother-in-law buying a few groceries. While we were in the check-out line, I pointed an item out to her I thought was interesting (I honestly can’t remember what it was anymore).

What stuck out to me is that she said, “One dollar. That’s a lot of money!”

Why this surprised me is that my in-laws are not short of money. Actually, this happened while we were on a family trip (30-plus people) at Disney World?–?the whole thing being paid for by them.

Understanding the value of one dollar is the same as coming to appreciate the value of time. To thoughtlessly spend one dollar may not seem like a big deal, but it actually is. That frivolous spending compounded over a long enough time could be millions. It also reflects a lack of care about the details, which is where the true art and value lies.

Additionally, most millionaires are self-made, 80 percent being first-generation rich, and 75 percent being self-employed. Not getting paid hourly challenges you to take more responsibility for every minute and every dollar. Consequently, a great majority of millionaires are extremely frugal with?–?or at least highly mindful? of–?their money.

3. Believing success will make you happy.

“One of the enemies of happiness is adaptation,” says Thomas Gilovich, a Cornell psychologist who has studied the relationship between money and happiness for more than two decades.

“We buy things to make us happy, and we succeed. But only for a while. New things are exciting to us at first, but then we adapt to them,” Gilovich further states.

Actually, savoring the anticipation or idea of a desired outcome is generally more satisfying than the outcome itself. Once we get what we want?–?whether that’s wealth, health, or excellent relationships?–?we adapt and the excitement fades. Often, the experiences we’re seeking end up being underwhelming and even disappointing.

I love watching this phenomenon in our foster kids. They feel like they need a certain toy or the universe will explode. Their whole world revolves around getting this one thing. Yet once we buy the toy for them, it’s not long before the joy fades and they want something else.

Until you appreciate what you currently have, more won’t make your life better.

4. Believing you’re not up for the challenge.

Just as we deceive ourselves into believing something will make us happier than it will, we also deceive ourselves into believing something will be harder than it will.

The longer you procrastinate or avoid doing something, the more painful (in your head) it becomes. However, once you take action, the discomfort is far less severe than you imagined. Even to extremely difficult things, humans adapt.

I recently sat on a plane with a lady who has 17 kids. Yes, you read that correctly. After having eight of her own, she and her husband felt inspired to foster four siblings, whom they later adopted. A few years later, they took on another five foster siblings, whom they also adopted.

Of course, the initial shock to the system impacted her entire family. But they’re handling it. And believe it or not, you could handle it too, if you had to.

The problem with dread and fear is that it holds people back from taking on big challenges. What you will find, no matter how big or small the challenge, is that you will adapt to it.

When you consciously adapt to enormous stress, you evolve.

5. Pursuing “happiness.”

There is no way to happiness?–?happiness is the way. ?–?Thich Nhat Hanh

Most people believe they must:

  • first have something (e.g., money, time, or love)
  • before they can do something (e.g., travel the world, write a book, start a business, or have a romantic relationship),
  • that will ultimately allow them to be something (e.g., happy, peaceful, content, motivated, or in love).

Paradoxically, this “have?-?do?-?be” paradigm must actually be reversed for you to experience happiness, success, or anything else you desire:

  • First, be whatever it is you want to be (e.g., happy, compassionate, peaceful, wise, or loving);
  • then, you can start doing things from this space of being; and
  • almost immediately, what you are doing will bring you the things you want to have.

You attract what you are. If you want the things happy people have, you must be happy to get those things. If you want things wealthy people have, you must be and live wealthy to have those things.

Results translate from attitudes and behaviors. Not the other ways around.

6. Undervaluing what you have.

In an interview at the annual Genius Network Event in 2013, Tim Ferriss was asked, “With all of your various roles, do you ever get stressed out? Do you ever feel like you’ve taken on too much?”

Ferriss responded:

Of course I get stressed out. If anyone says they don’t get stressed out, they’re lying. But one thing that mitigates that is taking time each morning to declare and focus on the fact that “I have enough.” I have enough. I don’t need to worry about responding to every email each day. If they get mad, that’s their problem.

Ferriss was later asked during the same interview:

Having read The 4-Hour Workweek, I got the impression that Tim Ferriss doesn’t care about money. You talked about how you travel the world without spending any money. Talk about the balance and ability to let go of caring about making money.

Ferriss responded:

It’s totally OK to have lots of nice things. If it is addiction to wealth, like in Fight Club, “the things you own end up owning you,” and it becomes a surrogate for things like long-term health and happiness?–?connection?–?then it becomes a disease state. But if you can have nice things, and not fear having them taken away, then it’s a good thing. Because money is a really valuable tool.

If you appreciate what you already have, then more will be a good thing in your life. If you feel the need to have more to compensate for something missing in your life, you’ll always be left wanting no matter how much you acquire or achieve.

7. Downplaying your current position.

It’s easy to talk about how hard our lives are. It’s easy to talk about how unfair life is, and to believe that we got the short-end of the stick.

But does this kind of talking really help anyone?

When we judge our situation as worse than someone else’s, we are ignorantly and incorrectly saying, “You’ve got it easy. You’re not like me. Success should come easy to you, because you haven’t had to deal with what I’ve gone through.”

This paradigm has formally become known as the victim mentality, and it generally leads to feelings of entitlement.

The world owes you nothing. Life isn’t meant to be fair. However, the world has also given you everything you need. The truth is, you have every advantage in the world to succeed. And by believing this in your bones, you’ll feel an enormous weight of responsibility to yourself and the world.

You’ve been put in a perfect position to succeed. Everything in the universe has brought you to this point so you can now shine and change the world. The world is your oyster. Your natural state is to thrive. All you have to do is show up.

8. Compartmentalizing your life.

Human beings are holistic. When you change a part of any system you simultaneously change the whole. You can’t change a part without fundamentally changing everything.

Every pebble of thought?–?no matter how inconsequential?–?creates endless ripples of consequence. This idea, coined the butterfly effect by Edward Lorenz, came from the metaphorical example of a hurricane being influenced by minor signals, such as the flapping of the wings of a distant butterfly, several weeks earlier. Little things become big things.

When one area of your life is out of alignment, every area of your life suffers. You can’t compartmentalize a working system. Although it’s easy to push certain areas?–?like your health and relationships?–?to the side, you unwittingly infect your whole life. Eventually and always, the essentials you avoid will catch up to your detriment.

Conversely, when you improve one area of your life, all other areas are positively influenced. As James Allen wrote in As a Man Thinketh, “When a man makes his thoughts pure, he no longer desires impure food.”

We are holistic systems.

Humanity as a whole is the same way. Everything you do effects the whole world, for better or worse. So I invite you to ask:

Am I part of the cure? Or am I part of the disease? ?–?Coldplay

9. Competing with other people.

All failed companies are the same: They failed to escape competition. ?–?Peter Thiel

Competition is extremely costly to maximum product reach and wealth creation. It becomes a battle of who can slightly out-do the other for cheaper and cheaper. It’s a race to the bottom for all parties involved.

Instead of trying to compete with other people or businesses, it’s better to do something completely novel or to focus on a tightly defined niche. Once you’ve established yourself as an authority on something, you can set your own terms rather than reactively responding to the competition. Thus, you want to monopolize the space in which you create value.

Competing with others leads people to spend every day of their lives pursuing goals that aren’t really their own, but rather what society has deemed important. You could spend your whole life trying to keep up, but will probably have a shallow life. Or, you can define success for yourself based on your own values and detach yourself from the noise.

10. Trying to have it all.

Every decision has opportunity cost. When you choose one thing, you simultaneously don’t choose several others. When people say you can have it all, they are lying. They are almost certainly not practicing what they preach and are trying to sell you on something.

The truth is, you don’t want it all. And even if you did, reality simply doesn’t work that way. For example, I’ve come to terms with the fact that I want my family to be the center of my life. Spending time with my wife and three foster kids is my top priority. As a result, I can’t spend 12 or 15 hours a day working, as some people do. And that’s OK. I’ve made my choice.

And that’s the point. We all need to choose what matters most to us, and own that. If we attempt to be everything, we’ll end up being nothing. Internal conflict is hell.

Although the traditional view of creativity is that it is unstructured and doesn’t follow rules, creativity usually occurs by when you think inside the proverbial box, not outside of it. People flex their creative muscles when they constrain their options rather than broaden them. Hence, the more clearly defined and constraining your life’s objectives, the better, because it allows you to sever everything outside those objectives.

https://www.inc.com/benjamin-p-hardy/34-things-you-need-to-give-up-to-be-successful.html?cid=sf01003&sr_share=facebook

Topley’s Top 10 – February 21, 2022

1.The Ratio of Negative Earnings Guidance is the Worst in a Decade

From Callum Thomas Chart Storm –Earnings Guidance: From boom to gloom. One explainer for this chart is the fact that the pandemic gifted a lot of companies a *one-off* surge/pulling-forward in growth (e.g. zoom, peloton, netflix, etc) — something that could not be repeated. Add to that rising cost pressures and signs of a slip in growth momentum and the picture below begins to seem the obvious outcome.

Source:  @C_Barraud  Callum Thomas https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/


2. Fed Raising Rates in an Expensive Market

Zerohedge –But an even bigger risk to the upcoming tightening cycle, where banks are now rushing to outbid each other on how many rate hikes they think the Fed will let loose before sending the economy into a recession, is that as Bank of America’s Savita Subramanian writes, the “key risk today is that the Fed is tightening into an overvalued market.”

Indeed, the S&P 500 today is more expensive ahead of the first rate hike than any other cycle besides 1999-00 (23x P/E vs. 30 P/E) and everyone remember what happened to the Nasdaq then. Making matters worse, this time the real cost of debt is negative, where in ‘99, the cost of equity was negative. The Fed Funds rate increased by 150bp during that cycle, and the market was up during the hiking, but the S&P peaked in March of 2000, and subsequently declined by 49% over the next 2.5 years

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/historical-guide-how-stocks-perform-during-tightening-cycles


3. Crude Oil First Weekly Loss in 8 Weeks.

Bespoke –The rally over the past few months has been very consistent for crude oil. In fact, crude oil is on pace for its first weekly loss in eight weeks.  Historically, it has been uncommon for crude oil to rally for such a long span. Since 1983, there have only been five other weekly winning streaks that have also gone on for at least 8 weeks in a row. The most recent of these ended at nine weeks last October.

Below we show the performance of crude oil following each time that it has ended a winning streak of at least 6 weeks, of which there have been 24 since 1983.  Performance following the end of these streaks has been mixed with positive performance around 50% of the time one week, one month, six months, and one year later across these instances.  Three returns, however, have more consistently seen positive returns which have on average been larger than the norm.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/crude-oil-snapping-a-historic-winning-streak


4. 10 Year Treasury Yield Now Higher than S&P Dividend Yield

Lawrence C. Strauss Barrons

https://www.barrons.com/articles/rising-treasury-yields-are-diminishing-the-appeal-of-dividend-stocks-51645215301?mod=past_editions


5. Nasdaq Composite Bearish Technical Indicator….50day Crosses Below 200day

Nasdaq is testing previous low…see if it breaks this week

www.stockcharts.com


6. Microcap Stocks -25% Correction from Highs.

Microcap ETF bounce but full correction of 25% top to bottom

IWC Microcap also breaking BLUE uptrend line going back to 2020

www.stockcharts.com


7. Homebuilders Break Previous Lows

Homebuilder ETF breaks October 2021 Lows

Homebuilders breaking an uptrend BLUE line going back to 2020….$69 would be clean break on chart

www.stockcharts.com


8. Housing Battle Between Massive Demand vs. Low Supply …And Now Possible Lack of Affordability (high prices/rising rates)

Home Supply is Finally Coming as Building Permits Hit Highest Levels Since May 2006

@Charlie Bilello The US Housing Boom continues with Building Permits rising to their highest levels since May 2006.

​Powered by YCharts​

Incredibly, the Fed is still stimulating, with holdings of mortgage-backed securities hitting another record high.

Image

​Powered by YCharts​

Incredibly, the Fed is still stimulating, with holdings of mortgage-backed securities hitting another record high.

Image

But this is all set to end in March (QE over, first rate hike), and the markets are quickly adjusting to that new reality. The 30-Year Mortgage rate in the US has moved up to 3.92%, its highest level since May 2019. The problem for home buyers? Housing prices are up 32% since May 2019 with many areas of the country (Phoenix, Tampa, Miami, Las Vegas, San Diego, etc.) up even more. That means affordability for new buyers is falling fast.


9. Here’s How Jeff Bezos Spends His Money

Kate PrinceBusiness  Investing.com

1. Cruising the Aegean Sea

Year Purchased: 2021
Estimated Value: $70 million* (Price of Eos yacht)

Before Jeff Bezos went to space in 2021, he went on a cruise. He was spotted visiting the Greek Islands aboard a super-luxurious yacht. He went on a cruise of the beautiful Aegean Sea, and he was spotted having dinner at Omega3, a cosmopolitan restaurant in Platis Gialos, located on Sifnos, a Cycladic Island.

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Bezos wasn’t alone for this cruise. He went sailing with his fellow billionaire businessman, Barry Diller. Diller’s wife is famed fashion designer Diane von Furstenberg. Also along for the trip was Anderson Cooper, a journalist and anchor at CNN. The trio sailed on Eos, one of the world’s largest sailing yachts. Eos is owned by Diller.

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2. Dog sledding above the Arctic Circle in Norway

Year Purchased: 2018
Estimated Value: $150-$250*

The Arctic Circle runs straight through the middle of Norway, and it is one of the country’s biggest tourist attractions. Not everyone can afford to travel there, but Jeff Bezos certainly can. The billionaire not only took a vacation there; he also dog-sledded, posting a lot of pictures from his vacation.

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above the Arctic Circle in Norway @JeffBezos / Twitter.co

Bezos talked about going dog sledding above the Norwegian Arctic Circle, saying on Twitter that it inspired him to “go to space to save the Earth.” He said that he believes Earth is the solar system’s “best planet,” and we have “no plan B” to save it.

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3. A “robot dog”

Year Purchased: 2018
Estimated Value: $75,000*

Robots of any kind are impressive and worthy of a few thousand dollars, but what about a robot dog? They aren’t quite as easy to cuddle up with at night, but that didn’t stop Boston Dynamics from creating the SpotMini. Jeff was pictured with the new dog in 2018.

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It’s thought that Spot costs around $75,000, but what do you get for that price? Apparently, a 55-pound pooch can race around the garden for 90 minutes before needing to be charged up again. Doesn’t sound quite as fun as Fido, does he?

4. Wimbledon Tickets

Year Purchased: 2019
Estimated Value: $1,300 per day*

Jeff Bezos made his public debut with his new girlfriend, Lauren Sanchez, in 2019. He and Sanchez attended the men’s Wimbledon final, which saw a thrilling match between Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic. He and his girlfriend sat right behind the Royal Family during their five-hour viewing of the match.

Wimbledon tickets aren’t cheap, especially if you’re sitting in the front row. Celebrities, from actors to musicians to CEOs, have been seen at the famed tennis match, smiling for the camera. Tickets can cost up to $1,300 a day for the best seats in the house, like the ones Bezos and Sanchez had.

5. 11-Minute Flight to Space

Year Purchased: 2021
Estimated Value: $4.4 billion*

Jeff Bezos described his adventure in his Blue Origin New Shepard capsule, which is autonomous and doesn’t require a pilot, as “the best day ever.” The eleven-minute spaceflight included the billionaire and three crew members, one of which was the oldest person to travel to space and the other the youngest.

The spaceflight cost $4.4 billion. Bezos’ entire flight was eleven minutes, but he only spent three of them actually in space. The flight wasn’t overly risky, as the New Shepard capsule had never had an accident in fifteen spaceflight tests. Blue Origin was founded in 2000, and, twenty-one years later, Bezos saw the fruits of his company’s labor.

6. Wind Farm in Ireland

Year Purchased: 2021-2022
Estimated Value: $23 million*

Jeff Bezos recently stepped down from his position as the head of Amazon to focus on his more pressing interests: space travel and eco-friendly energy generation. He’s attempting to achieve the latter through three wind farms which are located in the remote Irish town of Esk, near Balligree.

The 23-megawatt farms are the first to be built using all-private funding. Bezos commissioned the windfarms in the hopes of using power to offset carbon emissions that Amazon data centers, also located in Ireland, emit. The first of the three wind farms opened in 2021. The other two are expected to become operational by 2022.

7. Four City Blocks in Seattle

Year Purchased: 2012
Estimated Value: Part of the $4 billion Amazon campus*

In order to make the huge Amazon campus that he dreamed of, Jeff had to buy the land first. Incredibly, the Amazon campus in Seattle runs across four whole blocks. That’s an incredibly large area of land that would have cost a fortune to purchase.

It’s not clear just how much Bezos spent on it, but it would have been an eye-watering amount of money. Still, every tech giant needs its state-of-the-art HQ and Amazonwasn’t about to fall behind when everyone else was racing forward.

8. Google

Year Purchased: 1998
Estimated Value: $1.885 trillion*

Google currently has a market cap of nearly $2 trillion, making it one of few companies to achieve this feat. In 1998, things looked a lot differently for Google. The tech company’s headquarters, run by Larry Page and Sergey Brin, were in a garage in Menlo Park, California.

Jeff Bezos saw something in the tiny company, and he invested $250,000 into the venture. The investment in the startup is now up 20,000% today, and Bezos has cashed in on his now 3.3 million shares of stock. These shares are worth over $3 billion today. Bezos’ Google investment is yet another example of how his belief in tiny startups has made him billions.

9. Uber

Year Purchased: 2011
Estimated Value: $76.54 billion*

Though Amazon, as a company, has invested in Uber competitors, Jeff Bezos has his bet on a different horse. The tech billionaire put $3 million into the ride-sharing company, and he watched that investment pay off handsomely. Now, that paltry-seeming $3 million is worth around $400 million.

Bezos was one of the first investors in the app. Benchmark invested $30 million, and the company made $7.9 billion from its early investment. Bezos has an eye for good business opportunities, and he definitely placed the correct bet with this multi-million investment. Even Travis Kalanick, the ousted founder of Uber, made $9 billion from his 8.6% stake.

10. Whole Foods Market

Year Purchased: 2017
Estimated Value: $13.7 billion*

There’s a lot of money to be made in online groceries – and Jeff knows it. He’s been trying to break into the online grocery games since 2007, but despite creating AmazonFresh, it never really became a big player.

Jeff didn’t give up his dream though, and purchased Whole Foods through Amazon for $13.7 billion in 2017. This certainly helped boost Amazon’s position, but it’s still a big work in progress. Buying a trusted brand, Whole Foods, was a smart move on Jeff’s part and could be the key to future success.

 

https://za.investing.com/magazine/how-jeff-bezos-spends-his-money/?utm_source=Yahoo&utm_medium=cpm&utm_campaign=423353958&origin=yahoo&yp[campaign_id]=423353958&yp[adgroup_id]=9799388008&yp[ad_id]=37697082394&yp[network]=n&yp[device]=c&yp[publisher_id]=FINANCE_US&site_id=finance.yahoo.com&im_dars=1x100_3x102_5x171_7x904&vmcid=p%24g%2co%241c694064-9269-11ec-ba7e-008cfac348d0-7fea37938700%2ct%241645374068660


10. How to Turn Discipline into Consistency

Farnam Street Tiny Thought–One of the most practical life skills that no one talks about is turning discipline into consistency. Discipline will only take you so far. It’s hard to be consistently disciplined. 

Relying on discipline to do what you know you should do requires a lot of effort. But what if you could take that discipline and turn it into something that happens without much effort?

Consider my twelve-year-old son who has about an hour of homework a night with his Grade 7 class. If we relied on discipline to get that homework done, it would be a mess. Sure, some nights it would be easy but other nights it wouldn’t. I can almost hear the excuses now. “Dad, I don’t feel like doing it now. I’ll do it later.” In the end, what he did would depend on how he felt.

Doing things when you feel like doing them won’t get you the results you want. If you don’t feel like doing your job, you get fired. If you give it 50% because you don’t feel like practicing, you sit on the bench while other kids play in the game. If you don’t feel like studying, you get a crappy mark. That’s not to say that feelings are not important — they are — but they’re also a luxury when it comes to doing things.

The most successful people consistently do the thing they’re great at. They do it on easy days and they do it on hard days. They do it when they feel like it and when they don’t. Only what I’ve learned is that they’re not more disciplined than you or I. So how do they do it? The answer is they create a ritual.

The power of rituals can be easy to overlook because they seem so simple. Rituals include habits, systems, and even group traditions.

Once started, rituals are hard to stop. Think of rituals as anything structured that creates inertia. Not all inertia is positive. Your rituals can work for you or against you. And their mechanical neutrality is key to using them to your advantage.

Instead of relying on motivation to do homework, we started a ritual after school. Come home, shower, get a snack, and start your homework. As the days turn to weeks the structure takes hold and becomes the path of least resistance. Now, he consistently does homework every day, even when he doesn’t feel like it. The ritual took over.

What looks like skill is often just consistency. While you can’t snap your fingers and become more talented, you can create your own talent. Consistency creates talent. And you won’t be consistent if you only do things when you feel like it.

When people seem uncommonly disciplined, look for a powerful ritual hiding in plain sight. It’s not that they have more discipline than you or I, but they were able to turn that discipline into consistency with a ritual. Short-term results come from intensity but long-term results come from consistency. Turning intensity into consistency unlocks a powerful asymmetry.

(Share This Tiny Thought on Twitter). 

Explore Your Curiosity

★ “There’s this premise that the success of player depends on ability, which is made up of technical, physical, tactical and phycological aspects, and that this is then multiplied by their availability,” the doctor points out during the interview. “Many players have told me that Arjen Robben could have been close to Cristiano Ronaldo or Lionel Messi in ability, but he didn’t make it because he didn’t have much availability.”

https://fs.blog

Topley’s Top 10 – February 18, 2022

1.One Year…..XLE Energy ETF +50% vs. XBI Biotech -43%

www.yahoofinance.com


2. After underperforming Growth for 11 of the last 15 calendar years, Value leads Growth by 9% in 2022, its best relative start to a year on record.

Joseph Carr Dow Jones 

https://www.linkedin.com/in/joseph-carr-5416907/


3. Copper-Gold Ratio vs. Interest Rates.

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright–Gold’s repeated failures to breakout could likely be stemming, at least in part, to the likelihood of rising real yields given a fading base effect and hawkish stance from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Rising real yields (nominal yield less inflation) typically act as a headwind for precious metals, a topic further detailed in this article.

A tangent technical trend to this conversation is the tightening spread in the copper-gold ratio. Like gold over the past year, copper (HG/) prices have traded between about $4 and $4.80, which has led to a stall out in the copper-gold ratio and an opportunity for interest rates to close the gap. We saw similar behavior in 2012 when the copper-gold ratio flatlined, rates diverged, and then subsequently rebounded. Note that the rebound in rates eventually coincided with an uptick in the copper-gold ratio, so if history rhymes, this could also add skepticism to a sizeable precious metals rally.

https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright


4. ”Low Volatility” ETF is Down 2% More than S&P YTD

SPLV Low Volatility ETF vs S&P

www.yahoofinance.com


5. Banks vs. Tech YTD

KRE Regional Bank ETF vs QQQ Tech


6. Fed Balance Sheet Overly with Nasdaq and S&P

Guggenheim

https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/perspectives/global-cio-outlook/forget-raising-rates-shrink-the-balance-sheet


7. Bond mutual funds have now experienced two consecutive weeks of outflows totaling $30 billion

Advisor Perspectives Bond Funds Lurk as a Challenge to Fed’s Inflation Fight-by Eric Balchunas, 2/16/22

Bond funds are in a bad spot, and it will probably get worse.

A crash to Earth for growth stocks and cryptocurrencies is one thing, but a sharp decline in mainstream bond mutual funds could spell enormous trouble. Signs are emerging of the beginnings of a potential downward spiral in these funds, which could ultimately lead to redemption halts and subsequent panic by retail investors. That could pose the biggest challenge to the Federal Reserve’s plans to tame inflation through rate increases and quantitative tightening.

Bond mutual funds have now experienced two consecutive weeks of outflows totaling $30 billion, with exchange-traded funds adding an additional $10 billion. It may not seem like a big deal — and it isn’t yet — but these funds almost always take in cash, and it doesn’t take long for a little outflow to become a lot. Moreover, the last two times these funds experienced periods of significant outflows, the Fed did or said something dovish to turn it around. Now these outflows may not have been the cause of the central bank’s actions — although they were most likely at least a factor given how these funds manage more than $5 trillion of aging baby boomers’ retirement investments — but they are correlated. At least as of late.

The problem for these funds is they own a bunch of bonds that are going to be worth less if all the new bonds coming out offer higher yields. That’s why the prices of bonds are down and their returns are diminishing. And there’s really nowhere to hide. Corporates, Treasuries, mortgages, long term, short term, international, you name it, they are all red this year. And when bond funds start posting negative returns, money tends to start flowing out.

When they experience outflows, they usually start by dipping into their cash or selling any bond ETFs that they own as liquidity reserves. This is already taking place; the most liquid bond ETFs — HYG, LQD and TLT, for example — are experiencing billions of dollars in outflows already this year. Mom-and-pop investors aren’t selling these ETFs; they are professional money managers. Once they sell all their ETFs and the outflows continue, they will have to sell actual bonds, which will lower prices and result in negative returns, which will spark more outflows which will force them to sell more bonds which will lower prices and their returns. You get the idea. This downward spiral would start to dry up liquidity in the bond market and could ultimately lead to the fund having to halt redemptions. Panic would ensue.

The prospect of halting redemptions — and their much larger size — is why bond mutual funds are arguably a bigger risk to market stability, and the Fed’s hawkish plans, than bond ETFs, which many have pegged as the most serious threat. While ETFs won’t escape misery, they have only a fifth of the assets, and they have the release valve of trading on an exchange. Their shares may trade at a discount to net asset value, but they will trade.

I’m not the only one pointing out this potential problem. Janet Yellen said the same thing a year after the March 2020 crisis in response to questions from Senator Elizabeth Warren:

“I believe it is important to look very carefully at the risks posed by the asset-management industry, including BlackRock and other firms. FSOC began to do that, I believe, in 2016 and 2017, but the risks it focused on were ones having to do with open-end mutual funds that can experience massive withdrawals and be forced to sell off assets that could create fire sales. That is actually a risk we saw materialize last spring in March.”

Had the Fed not stepped in and thrown the kitchen sink at the bond market at that time, it’s entirely likely that some of the country’s biggest mutual funds would have halted their redemptions. They experienced two consecutive weeks of $90 billion outflows. One example is the $143 billion Pimco Income Fund, which declined 13% in the 30 days before the Fed acted. This triggered outflows of about $14 billion. All in all, the fund shrank 18% in a few weeks. How much more of this could the Pimco fund have withstood before it would have needed to halt redemptions? In India, where the central bank didn’t act as aggressively as the Fed did in the U.S., Franklin Templeton halted redemptions on about half a dozen of its active bond funds.

Of course, it’s possible that outflows from bond mutual funds are much more orderly — or even reverse and turn to inflows — and that these funds are able to adapt to the rising rate environment without the downward spiral kicking in. But as the Fed embarks on tightening monetary policy, investors and policy makers need to keep a close eye on which way the money flows and how funds are able to respond.

Bloomberg News provided this article. For more articles like this please visit bloomberg.com.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2022/02/16/bond-funds-lurk-as-a-challenge-to-feds-inflation-fight


8. Tesla Falls in Consumer Reports Ranking After Design Changes

Bloomberg-Tesla Inc. sank toward the bottom of Consumer Reports’ newest annual auto brand rankings, weighed down by poorly received design changes and reliability problems.

The electric-car maker placed No. 23 out of 32 brands on the 2021 list, down seven spots from the year before, Consumer Reports said Thursday. Tesla’s Model 3 was also beaten out as the “top pick” for 2022 in the electric-vehicle category by Ford Motor Co.’s Mustang Mach-E.

By Sean O’Kane  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-17/tesla-tumbles-in-consumer-reports-ranking-after-design-changes?sref=GGda9y2L


9. Miami becomes least affordable housing market in the US

From Morning Brew https://www.morningbrew.com/daily

Home prices are rising at a faster clip than wages By Katherine Kallergis

(iStock/Illustration by Shea Monahan for The Real Deal)

Miami is the most expensive housing market in the country, surpassing New York, according to a RealtyHop report.

Home prices in Miami have soared during the pandemic, propelled by the migration of out-of-state buyers and renters, many of whom have moved from the Northeast. Wages, meanwhile, have not risen at the same pace.

A household in the city of Miami would have to contribute 78.7 percent of its income toward homeownership costs, according to RealtyHop’s February affordability index. That’s based on a median home price of $589,000 and a projected median household income of $43,401.

Miami has moved higher in the ranking of least affordable cities for housing in recent months, eclipsing Los Angeles in October to take the No. 2 spot.

New York became the second least affordable city in February. A household in New York City would have to spend close to 78 percent of its income on homeownership costs, including mortgage payments and property taxes. That’s based on a median annual household income of $68,259 and median home price of $970,000.

In third-ranking Los Angeles, households can expect to spend 74.2 percent of their annual incomes on housing, based on a median income of $68,733 and a median home price of $925,000.

RealtyHop analyzes homeownership affordability across the country’s 100 most populous cities.

To remain below the threshold for cost-burdened housing, homeowners and renters should spend no more than 30 percent of their income on housing.

“What we’ve been seeing since the pandemic is Miami is the destination for a lot of out-of-state residents,” said RealtyHop data scientist Shane Lee. “These people often bring in more money than [locals].”

Rents have also jumped exponentially. One report found that rents in Miami rose 38 percent, the highest gains nationwide, in 2021.

Much of the local workforce, including those in healthcare, education and first responders, are priced out of homeownership. A Florida Realtors report found that home health care and personal care aides, earning the least out of 17 occupations studied, would need to earn more than three times their median annual salary to purchase a home, and nearly double their salary to rent a one-bedroom unit.

Last year, Miami ranked 16th in the country for cities with the biggest increases in median home asking prices, according to RealtyHop. The median price rose 17 percent in 2021 to $580,000. Austin experienced the biggest increase, up nearly 28 percent to $535,000.

“Miami has become increasingly unaffordable especially for those local residents. They’re the ones who increasingly struggle with homeownership,” Lee said. “It’s the same reason why Austin was the hottest market [in 2021].”

Lee and other experts predict price growth will slow as interest rates rise, but sales will continue to increase.

Miami Most Expensive US Housing Market (therealdeal.com)


10. How One Person Can Change the Conscience of an Organization

by Nicholas W. Eyrich,and Robert E. Quinn,

Summary.   While corporate transformations are almost universally assumed to be top-down processes, in reality, middle managers, and first-line supervisors can make significant change when they have the right mindset. Dr. Tadataka Yamada was one of dozens of executives…more

In December 2000, when Dr. Tadataka Yamada became the new chairman of research and development at Glaxo SmithKline, he was horrified to learn that his company was a complainant in a lawsuit over access to drug therapies for HIV/AIDS patients. GSK was one of 39 pharmaceutical companies charging Nelson Mandela and the government of South Africa with violating price protections and intellectual property rights in their efforts to access lower priced antiretroviral drugs. Close to 25 percent of black South Africans were living with HIV/AIDS and at the time, antiretroviral therapies cost approximately $1000 per month—more than a third of the average South African’s annual salary, putting treatment out of reach for most patients.

Yamada held discussions with his research staff and quickly learned that he was not alone in his opposition to the lawsuit. The team wanted to be a part of the solution to global health issues, not party to a lawsuit preventing such drugs from reaching those in dire need, but they felt they lacked the power to change the company’s direction. Yamada felt differently. In one-on-one meetings with individual board members of GSK, he stressed the company’s moral responsibility to alleviate human suffering and tied it to the long-term success of the company. He stated that GSK can’t make medicines that save lives and then not allow people access to them. He noted the public relations disaster associated with the lawsuit, and set forth a vision, co-created by his team, for how GSK could also become a leader in the fight against TB and malaria, diseases that also were disproportionately impacting third-world populations. The external pressure did not abate, with protests against many drug companies around the world.

In April, 2001, all 39 companies dropped the lawsuit against Nelson Mandela; GSK and others reduced the prices of antiretroviral drugs by 90% or more. Furthermore, under Yamada’s direction, one of GSK’s major laboratories in Tres Cantos, Spain, was converted into a profit-exempt laboratory that focused only on diseases in the developing world, including malaria and tuberculosis. Using his influence, Dr. Yamada also spurred GSK into allocating resources for affordable access to medications and development of future therapies. Subsequently top executives at GSK became leaders in global health issues. Andrew Witty assumed the CEO position at GlaxoSmithKline in 2008 and became one of the leading spokespersons for global health in the pharmaceutical industry. Chris Viehbacher, corporate executive team member at GSK, subsequently became the CEO of Sanofi, and a champion of global health. Both have since partnered with the Gates Foundation on global health initiatives.

Most people would love to be a part of such an amazing turn of events, yet this kind of transformation doesn’t happen very often. While many helped with these efforts, what made it possible for Dr. Yamada to step forward with a steady voice and a sound vision? In several interviews with Dr. Yamada we identified four key mindsets that helped him catalyze this transformation.

The power of one.

A single person with a clarity of conscience and a willingness to speak up can make a difference. Contributing to the greater good is a deep and fundamental human need. When a leader, even a mid-level or lower level leader, skillfully brings a voice and a vision, others will follow and surprising things can happen—even culture change on a large scale. While Yamada did not set out to change a culture, his actions were catalytic and galvanized the organization. As news of the new “not for profit” focus of Tres Cantos spread, many of GSK’s top scientists volunteered to work there. Yamada’s voice spoke for many others, offering a clear path and a vision for a more positive future for all.

The power of sequential skill building.

Prior to GSK, Yamada had a lot of practice with smaller challenges, from caring for the most complex patients in the intensive care unit, to becoming a department head and national leader in his field. Along the way he also led other efforts to change the status quo by actively helping more African Americans and women to join the gastroenterology faculty at the University of Michigan. The lesson is not to underestimate any chance you have, even if small, to hone your skills of challenging the status quo for the greater good. Train your “courage for challenging convention” muscle consistently, so that it’s ready when needed. At GSK, he first invited the input of his team, ultimately resulting in the plan to convert the Tres Cantos laboratory to a “not for profit” disease focus. He did not wait for someone else to speak out first, or for a committee to be formed to study the issue. He had built the skills to quickly recognize the problem, and also to advocate for a better way—a way GSK could become a leader in the fight against diseases that might not be profitable but would help countless individuals in dire need.

The power of sustained focus and determination.

It’s easy to say, “This will take some doing; I’ll think about it later.” Combined with an unconscious “This could be dangerous for my career,” it can be easy for tough challenges to gradually slip from focus. Over time the unacceptable can become the norm, and the energy for change dissipates. But Yamada didn’t accept the unacceptable; his focus and determination were well honed. He emigrated from Japan as a teenager and entered the demanding field of medicine. Along the way he took up marathon running and edited a seminal 3440-page textbook of Gastroenterology, among many other achievements. Attacking challenges was not just an occasional adventure—it’s been a way of being, as well as a highly successful career path. Assuring success of the Tres Cantos lab was not accomplished with a simple signature on a document. The laboratory was initially funded by GSK with the expectation that the researchers would soon obtain external grants so the output from the lab would not have expectations of making a profit for GSK. Partnerships with many organizations and universities were also initiated and sustained to help support this work.

The power of using privilege to support people with less privilege.

While such a mindset is not required for transformation to occur, most would agree that it’s even better, and more rewarding, when transformation also helps those with less privilege. Dr. Yamada, trained over many years in the “patient first” culture of medicine, had a well-honed awareness of the larger change he could bring because of his voice, and a vision for the positive impact GSK could bring to South Africa—and other countries in dire need of low cost, life-saving drugs to treat HIV, TB, and malaria. His team, and ultimately many others at GSK, shared a desire to help those less fortunate. The work done by the Tres Cantos lab continues to impact countless people in poverty suffering from TB, malaria, and many other diseases.

Speaking of the lawsuit that sparked his transformational leadership, Yamada said: “It was obvious we could reduce the price, but beyond that I felt it was really important for the company to make a commitment to making medicines for people where we might not make profit, but where we could have huge medical impact.”

With the support and efforts of many at GSK, this positive vision and pathway for action reverberated across the organization and helped energize a culture shift. The changes catalyzed by Yamada continued after he left GSK in 2006 to become President of the Global Health Program at the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Today GSK is one of the top pharmaceutical companies for global drug access and global health initiatives. In just the past 3 years Tres Cantos researchers have co-authored over 100 scholarly research publications. The laboratory continues to provide independent researchers access to GSK facilities, expertise and resources to advance the understanding of diseases of the developing world.

Yamada was one of dozens of executives we spoke to over the last several years to learn how one can succeed in making positive change in large organizations. In these interviews, we heard accounts that reflect the mindsets Yamada described. In nearly every case we saw the power of one. In one example, a woman in a Fortune 50 company shared her experience in transforming her unit in Brazil. After being promoted to a senior position at headquarters, she saw the need for change, but the politics were more intense, and her previous experience seemed irrelevant. With unwavering focus, she pressed forward and succeeded. In reflecting on her success, she noted that challenging the status quo is a skill that one can develop, and it applies at every level. In another case, a woman in a Fortune 500 company was promoted to oversee a large but failing business line. The eight people who preceded her were all fired. She spent months examining the organization and formulated a strategic plan. It required serious work at the top. Her boss said no. Using all her acquired skills and courage, she led her boss until he was ready to change. The organization turned around.

These stories remind us that while corporate transformations are almost universally assumed to be top-down processes, in reality, middle managers, and first-line supervisors can make significant change when they have the right mindset.

https://hbr.org/2019/12/how-one-person-can-change-the-conscience-of-an-organization?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=hbr&utm_source=LinkedIn&tpcc=orgsocial_edit

Topley’s Top 10 – February 16, 2022

1.Market Now Betting on 7 Rate Hikes.

2.Another Chart that Quietly had -20% Correction…Dow Transports

Transports 18,200 to 14,600 before recent bounce

www.stockcharts.com

3.Small Cap Bounce After -20% Correction

Small Caps bounce 9% off lows but still well below 200 day moving average and 13% from highs

4.History of U.S. Energy Balance Sheet

The United States now produces so much of its own energy from all sources (oil, gas, wind, nuclear, hydro, solar) that it increasingly reduces the net call on imports, and frees up surpluses for export.

Gregor Macdonald  https://twitter.com/GregorMacdonald

5.Value Stocks Perform Better During Decades of High Inflation

Value Stocks Like Higher Inflation by Ben Carlson

I’m not taking a victory lap here because I certainly didn’t expect to see inflation rise to nearly 8%. I wasn’t expecting so many supply chain issues stemming from massive consumer demand.

And that piece wasn’t a macro call as much as it was trying to understand why value stocks had lagged growth stocks so badly in the years leading up to the pandemic.

My takeaway was value stocks needed higher inflation to outperform once again. While not a perfect relationship, value has tended to perform better during decades with above average inflation and perform worse during decades with lower inflation.

Here’s the visual:

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/02/value-stocks-like-higher-inflation/

6.Liquid Alternatives $102.7B Positive Flows 2021

Advisor Perspectives Blog….AUM Jumps in Liquid Alts

All categories increased their Total Net Assets from last year with an overall 33% increase in assets totaling $707.4 billion on December 31, 2021. Real Estate, the largest category, ended the year with $239 billion in assets, up almost 50%.

Weekly flow-gathering was equally impressive. Options Trading, Relative Value Arbitrage, and Derivative Income categories enjoyed positive flows each week in 2021. Flows into Nontraditional Bond and Multistrategy categories were positive for 50 weeks with Event Driven, Equity Market Neutral, and Long-Short Equity Categories positive for 48 weeks. These flows confirm investors’ need for products providing portfolio diversification, performance consistency, alternative sources of income, and an equity hedge.

In aggregate, estimated net flows totaled $102.7 billion in 2021. A positive year after three consecutive years of negative net flows and the strongest positive year since 2013.

Elise Pondel, CFA, AVP, Director of Product Analytics

https://www.calamos.com/blogs/investment-ideas/liquid-alts-in-2021-record-aum-strongest-flows-since-2013-and-performance-to-believe-in/?utm_source=ap&utm_medium=nat_textl&utm_campaign=12522post

7.Top 1% Households by Wealth vs. Bottom 50%

Food for Thought: Portfolio allocations of the top 1% vs. the bottom 50%:

Source: Goldman Sachs; @MikeZaccardi

8.Omnicron Cases -83% vs. Restaurants Recovery Stall

LPL Research

https://lplresearch.com/2022/02/15/what-could-the-end-of-the-omicron-surge-mean-for-inflation/

9.Post Crypto Superbowl…BlockFi $100m Fine

Peter Thiel-backed crypto start-up BlockFi to pay $100 million in settlement with SEC, 32 states

PUBLISHED MON, FEB 14 202212:52 PM ESTUPDATED MON, FEB 14 20227:41 PM EST

Ryan Browne@RYAN_BROWNE_

SHAREShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email

KEY POINTS

·         BlockFi has agreed to pay $100 million to the SEC and 32 states to settle charges related to its retail crypto lending product.

·         The service, BlockFi Interest Accounts, let users accrue interest on holdings of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

·         BlockFi says it is now applying to register with the SEC to offer a new crypto savings product called BlockFi Yield.

Cryptocurrency firm BlockFi said Monday it has agreed to pay $100 million to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and several states to settle charges related to its popular crypto lending product.

BlockFi, which is backed by Silicon Valley investor Peter Thiel, touts itself as a banklike platform for crypto users. The company offers a popular savings product that lets clients accrue interest on their digital currency holdings.

BlockFi advertises annual percentage yields as high as 9.25% on its website, much higher than the average savings rates on offer from incumbent financial institutions. The firm says it is able to offer such rates as large institutional investors are willing to pay more to borrow the deposits.

Bitcoin and other digital assets are not regulated, however, and authorities have grown concerned by a lack of oversight for crypto-related services that more closely resemble traditional financial products that are regulated.

The SEC said Monday it had charged BlockFi with failing to register its retail crypto lending product, BlockFi Interest Accounts, and with violating the registration provisions of the Investment Company Act of 1940.

BlockFi agreed to pay the SEC $50 million to settle the charges, without admitting or denying wrongdoing or liability. It will also pay a further $50 million to 32 states over similar charges.

Following the settlement, BlockFi said U.S. customers will no longer be able to open new interest accounts with the firm. Clients can continue receiving interest on their existing holdings, but cannot add new assets to their accounts, the company said.

BlockFi says it is now applying to register with the SEC to offer a new crypto savings product called BlockFi Yield. The company added it intends to eventually move existing U.S. users over to the new service, unless they decide against it. BlockFi said the move provides “regulatory clarity” for the industry.

“From the day we started BlockFi, we have always known that strong engagement with regulators would be critical for the adoption of financial services powered by cryptocurrencies,” BlockFi CEO and founder Zac Prince said in a statement.

“Today’s milestone is yet another example of our pioneering efforts in securing regulatory clarity for the broader industry and our clients, just as we did for our first product — the crypto-backed loan,” he added.

The SEC also issued a warning to other crypto lenders that offer services like BlockFi’s, with Gurbir S. Grewal, director of the agency’s enforcement division, saying they “should take immediate notice of today’s resolution and come into compliance with the federal securities laws.”

The watchdog is reportedly scrutinizing Celsius, Gemini and Voyager Digital as part of an inquiry into crypto lending practices, according to Bloomberg. All three firms said they are cooperating with regulators.

Last year, Coinbase shelved plans to launch its own interest-earning crypto product after the SEC threatened to sue the company. The crypto exchange’s CEO, Brian Armstrong, got into a public spat with the watchdog, accusing it on Twitter of “sketchy behavior.”

Founded in 2017, BlockFi has raised a total of over $500 million in venture funding to date, according to CB Insights data, and was last privately valued at $3 billion.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/14/crypto-start-up-blockfi-to-pay-100m-in-settlement-with-sec-32-states.html?utm_campaign=mb&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_source=morning_brew

10.Warren Buffett: 3 Daily Habits That Separate the Doers From the Dreamers

Don’t just dream about success–act on it with focus and intent.

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BY MARCEL SCHWANTES, FOUNDER AND CHIEF HUMAN OFFICER, LEADERSHIP FROM THE CORE@MARCELSCHWANTES

Outside of Warren Buffett‘s mastery of investing, you have to agree that his simple life and business lessons are not only the stuff of legends, but also have a profound effect on people.

Some of it is pure common sense, like this slice of wisdom from the Oracle of Omaha:

You only have to do a very few things right in your life so long as you don’t do too many things wrong.

So, if you keep your failures to a minimum (with the full understanding that you must fail in order to succeed) you can achieve a level of success you’ve never imagined by doing a few things right over and over again0002:43

The next question should naturally be: What are some of those things? Well, we should probably consult Buffett on the matter. We may think that we need to devise grandiose strategies from complex ideas, but Buffett himself famously said, “It is not necessary to do extraordinary things to get extraordinary results.”

3 Buffett habits to practice

Some of life’s greatest successes come from the daily habits we practice with commitment and belief. An obstacle on the way to your success may be focusing too much on the results and not enough on the habits that will get you there.

Here are three that Buffett preaches by. They have worked for him. Will they work for you?

1. Surround yourself with the right people

A Buffett put it a few years ago when he spoke with some college students, “You will move in the direction of the people that you associate with. So it’s important to associate with people that are better than yourself.”

As the famous saying goes, we are the average of the five people we spend the most time with. And depending on whom you associate with at work, that can potentially disrupt your thinking, belief system, and how you make decisions.

2. Act swiftly on a decision

Did you ever sit on a decision too long and do nothing when you should’ve acted on it? Buffett calls that “thumb-sucking.” It’s stalling, procrastinating, and avoiding something that may have been your best bet to begin with to reach your goals. We’re all guilty of it.

As with most important decisions in life, do your research thoroughly, get all the information, and then act swiftly on your decision.

3. Invest in yourself

According to Buffett, one of the keys to your success is to go to bed a little smarter each day. By investing in yourself, especially honing your communication skills, Buffett says you will “become worth 50 percent more than you are now.”

If you can’t communicate well in business, Buffett warns, “it’s like winking at a girl in the dark–nothing happens. You can have all the brainpower in the world, but you have to be able to transmit it. And the transmission is communication.”

https://www.inc.com/rebecca-deczynski/misfits-market-grocery-delivery-service-food-deserts.html?cid=sf01003