Current retail demand is mainly driven by Asian investors, while U.S. and European investors are nowhere to be seen.
MarketWatch
8. Silver One-Tick from New Highs
StockCharts
9. Retail Investors Did Not Panic in 2025 Sell Off…..401(k) savers stayed on course through market volatility, Fidelity found
Via Yahoo!Finance: Retirement savers reached an average savings rate of 14.3% in the first quarter, a new record. Kerry Hannon · Senior Columnist
Retirement savers weathered a chaotic stretch of market gyrations in the first three months of the year, consistently adding to their savings, according to Fidelity Investments’ quarterly analysis.
While they experienced a drop in average 401(k), 403(b), and IRA balances, mostly due to market swings, savings rates remained consistent, with the average 401(k) savings rate increasing to a record 14.3%.
“We saw a lot of positive savings behaviors among employees,” Mike Shamrell, vice president of workplace thought leadership at Fidelity Investments, told Yahoo Finance.
“It was really encouraging to see that despite a lot of things going on, and economic ups and downs, people continued to save and didn’t pull back, or make a lot of changes to their asset allocation,” he said. “As a result, we saw the individual 401(k) savings rate increase to the highest level that we’ve seen.”
To break it down, the average employee contribution rate was 9.5%, and the employer contribution rate was 4.8%. This combined savings rate of 14.3%, up from 13.5% in 2020, is the closest it’s ever been to Fidelity’s suggested savings rate of 15%.
1. Hated Stock Rally…Highest Short Interest Since 2018
The Market Ear
2. U.S. 5x Number of AI Funded Companies vs. China
Semafor
3. ChatGPT Traffic Passes Wikipedia
Sherwood
4. Stock by Stock Mag 7 Rally
Cresset Capital
5. Silver Clear Breakout
StockCharts
6. Tesla -10% Correction this Week
Google
7. REITS Most Hated Sector…Contra Play?
@Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm)
8. Buffett Stock Approaching 200-Day
StockCharts
9. BRICS Summit in Brazil this Summer
Not A Motley Crew-Zerohedge: While the Leaders’ Summit is an annual event, it does not occur at the same time each year. The exact date depends on the schedules of the leaders themselves as well as seasonal conditions in the host country. The overall leadership of BRICS+ is a rotating presidency among Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Last year, the summit was held in Russia in October with President Putin as host.
This year Brazil has the rotating presidency and the summit will be in Rio de Janeiro on July 6 – 7, 2025. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is host. All of the founding BRICS leaders are expected to attend including Lula da Silva (Brazil), Vladimir Putin (Russia), Narendra Modi (India), Xi Jinping (China) and Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa), along with many others.
A brief comparison of the combined resources of the first five BRICS members with the resources of the G7 (U.S., UK, Germany, Italy, France, Japan and Canada) is instructive.
In terms of population, the BRICS have 3.3 billion people compared to 0.8 billion in the G7. The total land area is 39.7 km2 for BRICS versus 21.7kn2 for the G7.
Real annual growth in GDP is about 5% for the BRICS versus 2% in the G7. Nominal GDP for the G7 leads the BRICS by $45.3 trillion (43.7% of global output) compared to $26.7 trillion (28.7% of global output). But when purchasing power parity accounting is used, the BRICS lead G7 $51.6 trillion to $48 trillion.
The point is not that the BRICS are overtaking the G7 across the board – they’re not. The point is that the BRICS are a powerful group demographically and economically and not a motley collection of what were once called third-world countries.
10. Mark Cuban Following Henry Hazlitt on Basic Economics….New Technology Creates More Jobs Long-Term Always. Every Tech Revolution Sees Predictions of 20% Unemployment
Earnings for companies that have already reported are up 13% year over year, according to Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial. An impressive 78% of companies have beaten earnings expectations, he notes, and most companies have been expanding their margins despite anxiety that tariffs and consumer weakness would weigh on them. The biggest tech stocks have cributed about half of that earnings growth, which is a big reason why the Nasdaq is outpacing the other indexes.
Barron’s
2. MAG 7 Back to Leading Gains…+26% from Lows
The Market Ear
3. Big Rally Off Bottom is Historically Bullish
I didn’t quite realize that the S&P 500 has been up over 18% in the past 7 weeks. That’s occurred in only 35 trading days! That tells me that the market has been white hot! Does that mean we should expect some red now in the short to medium term? Not quite the case. A lot more green has followed.
Subu Trade
4. NVDA Vs. AAPL Chart…Breakout for NVDA
Nvidia stock is now up nearly 40% from the trade war lows in April. It’s up 4% on the year. Even after the latest rally, the stock isn’t expensive, trading at 29 times forward earnings estimates, while analysts expect 45% sales growth over the next 12 mhs. Compare those numbers to Apple, which trades at 28 times with 4% sales growth. Nvidia is far more attractive on a valuation-to-growth basis.
StockCharts
5. Tesla Fundamentals Keep Getting Worse But Options Bets Keep Getting More Bullish
Sherwood
6. Personal Savings Rate Increases in 2025
FRED
7. Massive Jump in U.S. Customs Revenues from Tariffs
As President Trump and his team cinue to search for plan B, and maybe plan C, to enact their trade agenda, data from the Treasury Department reveals that the US has brought in ~$40 billion worth of customs duties since the start of April, with a record-breaking $22.3 billion already collected in May (as of May 22). That’s a massive jump from $9 billion back in January, and is likely even lower than the actual total, given the customs-only figure excludes excise taxes on specific imported goods like fuel, alcohol, and tobacco.
Sherwood
Of course, the ruling this week means that the US government might have to give that revenue back.
But for now, tariffs remain a go, with a federal appeals court granting a temporary reinstatement of the levies, including the 10% baseline tariff applicable to nearly all imports.
Should Trump’s legal challenges, which might include going to the Supreme Court, fail, the White House has other levers and trade lawsat its disposal. Per Goldman Sachs analysts writing on Wednesday evening, the ruling might not change the final outcome for a lot of America’s major trading partners anyway.
1. U.S. 33.9 vs. Developed 18.7 Markets Cape Ration Comparison
US vs. DM. “Developed ex-U.S. large caps have a CAPE ratio of 18.7 compared to 33.9 for U.S. large caps … U.S. large caps hover in the 96th percentile while developed ex-U.S. equities quietly sit in the 40th percentile, modestly cheaper than their long-term median.”
Daily ChartBook
2. Foreign Ownership of U.S. Assets
JPMorgan’s Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou broke down US stock & bond ownership by country and then set it against the total household financial assets of that country to determine “which countries are the most vulnerable or exposed…While these portfolio investments are often made via institutions such as insurance companies and pension funds, the ultimate owners are typically households via their financial claims on these institutions,” Panigirtzoglou said to explain using that metric. The takeaway is that aside from Norway and Switzerland where the figures are boosted by sovereign wealth funds that have huge stakes in US assets, “[d]espite the rather large figures often mentioned in dollar terms for the stock of US assets held by the rest of the world, relative to the total financial assets of households, the allocations typically stand at around 10-20%” (excluding Norway and Switzerland), which Panigirtzoglou called “rather low compared to the share of the US in global equity and bond indices,” suggesting that foreign investors don’t necessarily hold “too much” in the way of US assets.
Zachary Goldberg Jefferies
3. Canada Making New Highs Despite Tariffs/51st State
StockCharts
4. NVDA Net Sales 2022-2025
Fundstrat
5. Average Price of a Tesla
Charlie Bilelo
6. Japanese Public Companies Accelerate Buybacks
Capital Group
7. Imports Fell by a Record in April
Cresset Capital
8. India Overtakes Japan 4th Largest Economy in World
WSJ
9. Housing Market Changing to Buyers Market??
Home sellers vs. buyers. “There are 34% more sellers in the market than buyers. At no other point in records dating back to 2013 have sellers outnumbered buyers this much. In other words, it’s a buyer’s market.”
Redfin
10. Summer rentals in the Hamptons are down 30%
Via CNBC: Summer rentals in the Hamptons are down 30% from the same period in previous years, according to Judi Desiderio of William Raveis Real Estate.
Brokers who focus on ultra-high-end rentals are seeing an even bigger drop and say their rental business is down between 50% and 75%.
Some renters may be holding out for better deals or waiting to book, but brokers privately say there are other factors at play.
Summer rentals in the Hamptons are off to a chilly start to the season, as unrented homes start to pile up and sales slow, according to brokers.
Hamptons rentals are down 30% from the same period in previous years, according to Judi Desiderio of William Raveis Real Estate. Brokers who focus on ultra-high-end rentals say their rental business is down between 50% and 75%.
“People are holding on to their money,” said Enzo Morabito, head of the Hamptons-based Enzo Morabito Team at Douglas Elliman. “They don’t like uncertainty.”
Of course, Hamptons renters often wait until the last minute to book July and August rentals. Brokers say this year may be starting even later due to cold, rainy weather in May. Some renters may also be holding out for better deals in a Hamptons market that has become far more expensive after Covid.
Yet brokers and renters say privately that the volatility in the stock market and economic uncertainty sparked by the ever-changing tariff landscape has made some affluent renters and even some buyers hold off on a pricey Hamptons vacation this summer.
After the post-election euphoria in markets at the end of last year, brokers saw a surge in interest from potential renters in January and February. But as spring arrived, along with the April tariff announcements, the early interest didn’t translate into rentals.
Morabito said he represents several homeowners with large waterfront and luxury properties that typically would have been rented by March or April. Today, they’re still available. He said some homeowners who rent out three or four homes in the Hamptons during the summer may start to question their investments after this summer if renters don’t start emerging.
On the plus side, the rise in unrented inventory means potential bargains and choice for renters. Brokers say some listings have started lowering their prices by 10% to 20% in hopes of saving the summer. Some homeowners are adding more flexibility, allowing for shorter one- or two weeks stays in hopes of getting renters.
Gary DePersia of My Hampton Homes said the best houses in the Hamptons typically get rented early in the year. “But this year I have great rentals available in every town, from Southampton to Montauk.”
While tariffs and economic uncertainty may play a role in the slump, he said renters seem to have been waiting longer and longer every year, perhaps holding out for better deals. Eventually, he said, they end up renting.
“I think a number of people have deferred decisions, or they weren’t sure what [they were] going to do, go to Europe or the West Coast,” he said. “They will realize they want to be in the Hamptons; they have lot of friends and colleagues here and then they start scurrying around for rentals.”
Desiderio said the combination of weather and grim economic headlines made for a slow start that will quickly reverse.
“I believe this year there was so much ‘dark noise’ out there financially, and geopolitically, and the weather was not conducive to thinking of summertime,” she said. “There’s no doubt that by the time July 1 is upon us, all of the rentals will be taken this year.”
When it comes to home sales, the Hamptons real estate market remains fairly strong, despite relatively low inventory. Sales in the first quarter were down 12% from a year ago, although the median sales price jumped 13% to a record $2 million.
Brokers say when a quality home in the Hamptons is priced right, it sells immediately. They add that the surge in high-end sales in Manhattan over the past two months could also lift the Hamptons market.
“I just had two Canadians put a bid on an $18 million house, sight unseen” Morabito said. “When Manhattan comes alive, we always follow.”
1. Greater than 5% Gains in May? Next 12 Mhs has Never Been Lower
Bol
2. U.S. Treasury Bonds Worst 10-Year Rolling Annualized Returns in 90 Years
3. Target -50% from Highs
StockCharts
4. 114 Public Companies Now Own Bitcoin
Businesses are on a bitcoin buying spree. Publicly traded companies are stockpiling bitcoin as if it’s toilet paper in the year 2020, except they’re betting big money that the digital asset won’t go down the drain.
The latest businesses to go for it are GameStop, which announced its first bitcoin purchase, worth ~$500 million, yesterday, and Truth Social’s parent company, Trump Media ($DJT), which said on Tuesday that it’s raising $2.5 billion to create its own bitcoin treasury.
Corporate crypto ownership has risen alongside Bitcoin’s price recently:
There are now 114 publicly listed companies that own bitcoin, up from 89 at the beginning of April, according to BitcoinTreasuries.net.
Bitcoin’s price jumped nearly 50% from a low of ~$75,000 to an all-time high of nearly $112,000 over roughly the same period.
Follow the leader
Public companies are trying to copy Bitcoin’s largest corporate holder, a company aptly named Strategy (previously MicroStrategy).
Strategy bought up 580,000+ bitcoins (current value $62+ billion) over the past few years, transforming itself from a software business with Bitcoin holdings into a bitcoin holding company with a side of software.
Strategy has made itself an attractive investment for traders who want a stake in bitcoin but may not want to buy crypto directly.
So far, this tactic has done wonders for investors. Strategy’s stock skyrocketed 500% last year as bitcoin jumped 130%.
But Strategy now trades at ~1.6x the value of its bitcoin holdings, stoking concerns that the whole operation could come crashing down if the winds change. Still, enthusiasts say the cryptocurrency’s limited supply means bitcoin will become more valuable once it’s all been mined.
Crypto has friends in high places. The White House embrace of crypto is alive, Fox Business reported yesterday from the Bitcoin Conference 2025 in Las Vegas. Addressing the crowd, Vice President JD Vance said the administration is intent on stripping federal crypto regulations and passing laws allowing stablecoin-trading, which has made some lawmakers uneasy, because the Trump family majority-owns a stablecoin called USD1.
5. Thematic Mega-Trend for Industrial Metals
Barchart
Key point: There’s a multi-pronged thematic capex boom underway.
6. Data Center Investments Added One Percentage Point to GDP in Q1 2025
Michael Arouet
7. More on Yen Carry -$4 Trillion Deployed Globally Using Yen Funding
Carry Trade Unwinding with JGB Selloff Could Affect US Treasurys– Though the JGB crisis might appear to be unconnected to the fortunes of US Treasurys, there is indeed a relationship. The Japanese bond selloff is an unwinding of the yen carry trade. Thanks to comparatively low Japanese interest rates and a cheap yen, global investors borrow yen to invest in higher-yielding assets worldwide, particularly US Treasurys and blue-chip stocks. We estimate that nearly $4 trillion was deployed globally using yen funding. As Japanese yields rise, the carry trade becomes less attractive, forcing unwinding that pushes the yen higher and US stocks and bonds lower. Moreover, Japanese investors collectively hold $1.13 trillion in US Treasuries and they could repatriate their holdings as JGBs become competitive again.
Japan’s bond turmoil appears to be washing up on our shores. The 30-year Treasury yield surged past five per cent last week, its highest level since 2008, with much of the recent move attributed to the Japanese market rather than domestic factors. The US 10-year term premium, the yield differential between short-term and intermediate-maturity Treasurys, has climbed to nearly one per cent, a level not seen since 2014, as investors demand higher compensation for long-term risk.
Cresset Capital
8. Private Sector Leverage at Half the Level of 2008 Plus $7 Trillion in cash accounts
Private sector leverage today is an order of magnitude less than it was at its peak in 2008. This makes the economy much more resilient and able to withstand unexpected stresses.
PayChartBook
9. Energy Sector at 2021 Levels Relative to S&P
Semafor
10. Timeless Principles From History to Live a Successful Life
From Psychology Today:What Benjamin Franklin can teach you about leading a life of success.
Key points
Strong principles can guide our behavior for the better.
Benjamin Franklin wrote 13 principles of conduct which helped shape the path for his influential life.
Industriousness, frugality, transparency with others, and balance are key.
I recently read the biography of Benjamin Franklin,1 and it did not disappoint. Franklin grew up in working-class conditions, starting his career early on as a tradesman and then pivoting into writing for and producing newspapers. He decided he was destined for more at an early age. As such, he created 13 guiding principles on a long ship ride across the Atlantic, which shaped the path to becoming the esteemed scientist, writer, politician, and founding father over the next 50 years.
Unbeknownst to most, Franklin was also a savvy lay psychologist. In this article, I will describe his 13 necessary virtues and how modern psychology supports them:
Principle #1: Temperance: Eat not to dullness; drink not to elevation.
Franklin was a practical man who preferred concrete writing/thinking. His first principle calls for eating and drinking in moderation, not to excess.
Modern medicine confirms the wide variety of health benefits that come from avoiding overeating and obesity, including the promotion of longevity.2 Likewise, imbibing alcoholic beverages frequently cributes to an increased risk of a variety of diseases and all-cause mortality.3 More likely along the lines of Franklin’s thinking when creating this first principle, gluttony from food and alcohol can stifle personal productivity and diminish other’s perception of you.
Principle #2: Silence: Speak not but what may benefit others or yourself; avoid trifling conversation.
Franklin hosted a variety of philosophical clubs throughout his life. These clubs would often involve debates and intellectual sparring between members. Franklin cut his teeth during these debates, which cributed to him evolving into the politician, diplomat, and founding father that he became. In his professional and personal life, Franklin preferred deep conversation over small talk. Social scientists have found that deeper conversational topics promote social bonding more than small talk.
Principle #3: Order: Let all your things have their places; let each part of your business have its time.
Being organized in one’s physical spaces and in how one spends their time was important to Franklin. Both facets of this wisdom help us enhance personal productivity while simultaneously avoiding careless errors, such as losing an important document or missing an important business meeting. The order principle taps into the personality trait of conscientiousness, which is the strongest of the Big Five traits in predicting success metrics.
Principle #4: Resolution: Resolve to perform what you ought; perform without fail what you resolve.
Here we see another tried and true statement about honoring one’s word. Franklin was a strong believer in commitment and performing work dutifully. Those who stick to their professional and personal commitments are held in higher regard compared to those who fail to do so.7
Principle #5: Frugality: Make no expense but to do good to others or yourself (i.e., waste nothing).
Franklin did not tolerate financial wastefulness. He developed frugal habits early on in life. Spending money wisely was always fr and center of Franklin’s mindset. Even later in life, when Franklin was wealthy, he practiced and preached the importance of economical behavior. He often wore old robes to high-stakes political meetings (perhaps to a fault), and he was quick to instill a lesson in frugality whenever a family member requested something extravagant from him. Indeed, research suggests that materialistic aspirations are negatively associated with happiness and psychological health.
Principle #6: Industry: Lose no time; be always employed in something useful; cut off all unnecessary actions.
The industry principle was the golden rule for Franklin. The list of lifetime accomplishments on Franklin’s CV is as astonishing: He discovered electricity, understood the cause of colds (germs, not cold air), observed that exercise prevents disease and exercise intensity is more important than duration, linked illness across a variety of trades as being caused by lead poisoning, established police and firefighting systems, established a postal system between the colonies and worked as postmaster, and established the declaration of independence. Productivity yields meaning in life, which is an important component of global well-being.
Principle #7: Sincerity: Use no hurtful deceit; think innocently and justly, and, if you speak, speak accordingly.
Franklin was a proponent of telling the truth above all else. Franklin was a gentlemanly politician who preferred to discuss matters cordially and thoroughly. The sincerity principle operates similarly to authenticity, a construct that describes Franklin well and is associated with increased likability.
Principle #8: Justice: Wrong none by doing injuries or omitting the benefits that are your duty.
Treat others fairly and fulfill your moral duties. Avoid causing physical or emotional damage to others and go further by helping others whom you consider your adversary if it is your job to do so. This principle helped Franklin serve effectively as an intermediary between the U.S. and Britain during tense times. Psychology research confirms that seeking revenge can have negative consequences, personally and socially.
Principle #9: Moderation: Avoid extremes; forbear resenting injuries so much as you think they deserve.
The key idea here is to stay balanced in life. Franklin advocates for harmony across disciplines as evidence of the variety of accomplishments and careers he held. Social science research supports the idea that balance is important for avoiding burnout and maintaining creativity and consistency.
Principle #10: Cleanliness: Tolerate no uncleanliness in body, clothes, or habitation
Let this principle be your friendly reminder to bathe. Although perhaps less enlightening than the other principles, keep in mind this was before running water and the germ theory of disease. As silly as this sounds now, Franklin was forward-thinking in his cleanliness principle, which may have cributed to his significantly longer than average life. Health scientists are now unanimous in their recommendation of personal hygiene practices.
Principle #11: Tranquility: Be not disturbed at trifles, or at accidents common or unavoidable.
Franklin was a student of Stoic philosophy. If something negative happens to you that is outside of your crol, accept your bad luck and move on without brooding in negative emotions. Psychology research finds that ruminating on negative events hurts well-being and mental health.
Principle #12: Chastity: Rarely use venery but for health or offspring, never to dullness, weakness, or the injury of your own or another’s peace or reputation.
Keep it in your pants unless you need exercise or are trying to have kids with your partner. This one is a bit personal to Franklin: Franklin’s first child was conceived out of wedlock to a woman who was never revealed by Franklin nor discovered by historians. Franklin was criticized for his personal indiscretion by enemies throughout his career, and it took a toll on his marriage. Recent research finds that sexual misconduct is punished even more harshly than academic misconduct (misreporting or faking data).15 And, of course, all the news headlines of infidelity amongst household names support the proposition of the damage that can be done to one’s reputation.
Principle #13: Humility: Imitate Jesus and Socrates
Practice humility by learning from wise and virtuous role models. Franklin was a lifelong learner and an astounding scholar, receiving several honorary doctoral degrees despite having zero formal education. He believed in learning from others, which aligns well with the classic psychology finding of observational learning.
