Via Perplexity: The “unwinding of the yen carry trade” refers to the rapid reversal of a popular investment strategy where investors borrow Japanese yen at low interest rates to invest in higher-yielding assets or currencies elsewhere1236. Here’s how it works and what happens during an unwind:
How the Yen Carry Trade Works
Investors borrow yen at very low interest rates (thanks to Japan’s historically low monetary policy).
They convert those yen into another currency (like US dollars) and invest in assets that offer higher returns, such as US bonds or stocks.
The profit comes from the difference between the low yen borrowing cost and the higher yield on the foreign asset.
What “Unwinding” Means
Unwinding occurs when investors reverse these trades—often suddenly—because conditions have changed (e.g., rising interest rates in Japan, a strengthening yen, or falling returns abroad).
Investors sell their foreign assets, convert the proceeds back into yen, and repay their yen loans.
This process increases demand for yen, causing it to appreciate, and puts downward pressure on the prices of the assets being sold.
Why It Matters
The unwinding can trigger sharp moves in currency and global asset markets, sometimes leading to significant volatility or even market sell-offs.
As more investors unwind, the process can become self-reinforcing: a stronger yen makes existing trades less profitable, prompting even more unwinding.
Recent examples (such as in 2024) have shown that the unwinding of the yen carry trade can lead to large declines in stock and bond markets worldwide.
In summary:
The unwinding of the yen carry trade is when investors quickly exit positions funded by cheap yen borrowing, leading to a stronger yen and falling prices for riskier assets globally. This process can amplify market volatility and have broad ripple effects across financial markets.
3. Japanese Yen Chart…Right Now Yen Stopped Going Higher at Resistance Going Back to 2023
StockCharts
4. The Bank of Japan Owns 50% of the Japanese Government Bond Market
The Bank of Japan still owns a staggering 50 per cent-plus of the Japanese government bond market. But with deflation now in the rear view, the BoJ has started quantitative tightening — allowing its existing bond holdings to slowly hit the market. And as this one massive buyer has become a net seller, Japanese bond yields are normalising — aka rising.
FT Notes that Quasi-governmental entities like Japan Post, Norinchukin, and GPIF together own over a trillion dollars of foreign bonds. The government could urge them to support the Japanese bond market. But that would likely involve selling their foreign bond holdings — most likely Treasuries — to buy JGBs. “What Happens in Japan does not Stay in Japan.”
5. Japan’s 40-Year Bond Yield Hits Highest Level Ever
Barchart
6. Annual Flows from Asia into U.S. Assets Peaked in 2004
Via Bloomberg: The annual flows into the US peaked in 2004 at $354 billion as the ascendance of China, after joining the World Trade Organization, started to reshape trade and investments in the region. In the early 2000s, almost every dollar earned by the largest Asian exporters to America was reinvested back into its equity and bond markets given the high returns and growth seen in the world’s biggest economy.
The Global Financial Crisis of 2008 was a “major wake-up call,” exposing the fragility and risks in US markets, says David Gibson-Moore, president and chief executive officer of Gulf Analytica, a Dubai-based wealth advisory firm with Asian clients. Over the last decade, “sovereign wealth funds, family offices and institutional investors across Asia have gradually been rebalancing their portfolios to reduce overexposure to US assets.”
By 2024, Asia’s capital inflows into the country had dropped to $68 billion, making up just 11% of trade surpluses with the US that had continued to expand. Exports had ballooned in the past few years, aided by a strengthening dollar and a rebound in American consumption after Covid.
7. China Overall Global Exports Going Higher
“This [EU] episode also suggests the US is not trying to isolate China, as at one point seemed plausible … April data show that it is finding new customers. US exports are down badly, but total exports are at an all-time high.”
Blommberg
8. Over the Last 10 Years…300 American Colleges Closed
9. Countries with Most Child Marriages
Semafor
10. The Surprising Way to Tame Stress Fast
Via Consumer Reports: Learning to breathe deeply can foster relaxation. These breathing exercises can help you get started.
Life can sometimes be stressful. Health worries, financial concerns—even watching the news—can get you wound up.
And feeling tense isn’t just unpleasant, it’s also bad for your health. Chronic stress can contribute to or worsen sleep problems, headaches, gastrointestinal issues, high blood pressure, and depression and anxiety.
But there’s an easy, natural way to counteract stress: Take a deep breath.
Why Deep Breathing Is Calming
High-stress situations make you feel tense because they activate your sympathetic nervous system. This triggers the well-known fight-or-flight response, says Willie E. Lawrence Jr., MD, a preventive cardiologist and chief medical officer with the Cardiac and Vascular Interventional Group in Dallas. As a result, you breathe quickly and shallowly, your heart rate spikes, and your arteries narrow, which raises your
Breathing deeply counteracts this. It activates your diaphragm, a muscle at the bottom of your ribs, which stimulates the vagus nerve that runs from the brain to the abdomen. This activates your parasympathetic nervous system, lowers stress hormones, slows breathing, and brings your heart rate and blood pressure back to normal. The result: You start feeling calmer and more relaxed. Slowing your exhalations can enhance this, Lawrence says.
Of course, deep breathing won’t eliminate all of your tension. But studies have found plenty of positive effects. A 2023 meta-analysis published in Scientific Reports found that using various breathing techniques was linked to less overall stress and improved mental health. A 2019 review of three studies connected using your diaphragm muscle while breathing to a long-term reduction in stress levels and a short-term drop in blood pressure.
How to Get the Benefits
Most people breathe shallowly throughout their day. To learn how to breathe deeply, lie on your back, slowly inhale—letting your rib cage expand and your stomach rise—then exhale, letting them contract and fall. Over time, deep breathing more of the time may become natural for you.
Juanita Guerra, PhD, a clinical psychologist in New Rochelle, N.Y., and Lawrence also suggest doing exercises that slow your breathing, which can offer a reset when you’re under pressure. Try practicing one or more of the moves below once a day. (Start with three to five cycles at a time.)
Box (or square) breathing: Inhale for four counts, hold your breath for four, exhale for four, and hold again for four.
4-7-8 breathing: Inhale through your nose for four counts, then hold your breath for seven. Then slowly exhale through your mouth for eight counts.
Alternate nostril breathing: Close your right nostril with your thumb and inhale. Close your left nostril with your ring finger and release your thumb; exhale, and then inhale. Close your right nostril and exhale. Start again.
More Ways to Relax
Deep breathing may be even more effective at reducing stress when it’s done as part of another activity. That also helps you incorporate deep breathing more easily into your life, Lawrence says. Consider these options.
Yoga, Pilates, and tai chi: These exercises focus on controlling your breath while you’re moving your body.
Mindful meditation: Paying close attention to your breathing helps you focus on the present moment and not think about other things. It’s been found to reduce levels of stress hormones.
Spending time outdoors: Research has found that being in a natural setting like a park for just 20 minutes can lower stress hormone levels. If it’s difficult to get outside regularly, some evidence suggests that looking out a window or viewing natural scenes on a screen may help.
Editor’s Note: This article also appeared in the June 2025 issue of Consumer Reports On Health.
1. Underweight U.S. Equity Exposure from Fund Managers
Fund managers are the most underweight equities since May 2023. Even after the recent run, their allocations have not budged.
Bol
2. Healthcare Sector Sentiment Record Lows
Via Barron’s: Jason Goepfert, founder and senior research analyst at SentimenTrader, notes that the ratio of the price of the healthcare index relative to the S&P 500 fell more than 35% from its most recent high, something that had only occurred seven times before over the past 100 years. That type of relative decline has typically been a good time to buy the sector, which has averaged a return of 17% over the subsequent 12 months.
But wait, there’s more. The Health Care ETF traded at a new 52-week low on May 15 before rallying to finish the day above the previous day’s high. That, too, is a rare occurrence—it’s happened just four other times since the ETF’s inception in 2000. Once again, returns have been quite good. The ETF has averaged a 21% rise over the 12 months following the signal, according to SentimenTrader data, including a 46% rise after getting triggered in 2009. That, too, suggests the sector is oversold and primed for a rally. “Trends in the sector are so bad that they indicate washout conditions, and investors seem to sense snapback potential,” Goepfert writes.
XLV Healthcare ETF Closes Below 200-Week Moving Average on Long-Term Chart
StockCharts
3. IBM Making New Highs
StockCharts
4. S&P Stocks with Dividend Yields Higher than 10-Year Treasury
At the moment, there are 40 S&P 500 stocks with higher dividend yields than the 10-year yield, and we list them below. Two Materials stocks top the list with 9%+ dividend yields and over 20% declines on the year.
Bespoke
5. Carbon Capture is Big Business
Ready, offset, go: Carbon capture is becoming a big business. Some of the world’s largest (and top-polluting) companies have come to rely on carbon offsets to hit net-zero targets. At present, these offsets are mostly natural solutions like tree-planting projects, but there’s been a huge upswing in CCS systems recently.
Last month, The IEA reported that while the first quarter of 2025 saw over 50 million metric tons of CO2 capture and storage capacity in operation, capacity is projected to grow strongly, reaching ~430 million metric tons by 2030.
A major driving force behind the surge in CCS developments is the eye-watering growth of Big Tech. According to analysis from Carbon Brief, tech companies like Microsoft and Apple generally use higher proportions of removal-based offsets than other industries like oil or airlines, and demand has only increased as these giants have gone all in on energy-guzzling data centers to power AI.
In its global carbon markets outlook for 2025, Bloomberg outlined that new contracted volumes of carbon removal credits increased by 74% last year, predicted that they’ll double this year, and detailed that Microsoft alone bought nearly two-thirds of new contracts last year, or ~5.1 million carbon removal credits.
6. Trump Announces 25-Year Plan to Accelerate Nuclear—Uranium a Couple Ticks from Break-Out to New Highs
StockCharts
7. Big Financials vs. Small Cap Banks….51% Spread in Returns Since Jan 2022
ConvertBond
8. Mortgage Rates 3-Year Range
Abnormal Returns
9. Best 50 Places to Work in America
Visual Capitalist
10. This Is Your Job Right Now
Via The Daily Stoic: It’s depressing. It’s confusing. It’s fraught. You don’t like where the world is going. You don’t like what’s happening.
What are we supposed to do? Especially when we are so powerless, as ordinary citizens, people who do not hold office, especially when we are matched against billionaires, against madness, against inertia, against so much.
“Remind yourself that your task is to be a good human being,” Marcus Aurelius writes in Meditations, in reaction, it must be said, against his own dysfunctional and cruel times. “Remind yourself what nature demands of people,” he added. “Then do it, without hesitation, and speak the truth as you see it.”
We are not emperors. We are not senators. But we are human beings, connected to all other human beings. Our job is to do our job—to do it virtuously and honestly. Our job as citizens is to participate in politics—not to cede the field simply because it disappoints and disgusts us. Our job is to help the people we can help closest to us—those who have lost their jobs, those who have been targeted, those who do not have the advantages we have.
And most of all, per the tradition of the Stoic Opposition (which included hallowed figures like Cato and Helvidius and Thrasea and Rutilius Rufus), is to courageously speak the truth as we see it. To not go along with lies. To call things what they are. To condemn what deserves condemnation. To stand up for principles and programs that deserved defense. To say who we are, which is good, which is kind, which is very much not on board with any of this and that even if we can’t stop it, we can say clearly and loudly that we do not accept it being done in our name.
3. 85% of Global Foreign Exchange Transactions in U.S. Dollars
Cresset Capital
4. Smartphone Shipments to China Drop to 2011 Levels
Sherwood
5. Gold vs. 20-Year Treasury Bond ETF
The Market Ear
6. Hedge Funds Shorting Heavy Again
MarketWatch
7. Uranium Held 2023 Low…+25% in One Month
StockCharts
8. U.S. Housing Shortage Over? Listings Have Tripled Since 2022
Via Zach Goldberg Jefferies: With resale inventory on the U.S. Housing Market hitting nearly 1 million listings this spring. Listings bottomed in April 2022 at around 379k. Since then, they have nearly tripled. To the highest level of supply since 2019. Redfin: U.S. home prices ticked down -0.05% in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, the first month-over-month decline since September 2022 according to the Redfin Home Price Index (RHPI), which uses the repeat-sales pricing method to calculate seasonally adjusted changes in prices of single-family home. April marked only the third time that the RHPI has posted a month-over-month decline, with the other months—August and September in 2022—coming after a series of rapid interest rate rises. It’s worth noting that April’s decline (-0.05%, rounded to -0.1%) is minor and that RHPI data is subject to revision.
9. A 56-year-old Personal Trainer on how to Build Muscle after 40 — with Rucking, Bodyweight, and Short Workouts
A personal trainer in his 50s got back in shape after colon cancer treatment with simple workouts.
His routine includes rucking, walking with a weighted pack to build muscle and endurance in less time.
He recommends shorter, more consistent workouts instead of exhausting yourself for long-term gains.
Via Business Insider: Shorter workouts could be the key to getting in shape and staying that way into your 50s and beyond, according to a personal trainer who learned to work smarter instead of harder.
Bill Maeda, 56, said recovering from a health crisis taught him that short, simple, and consistent is key to building muscle and fitness long-term.
“My raw horsepower is less than it was 10 or more years ago, but I don’t care,” he told. “The difference is now, I’m moving better, and it’s fun.”
Inspired by Bruce Lee to start training at 8 years old, Maeda had been a personal trainer for decades, even landed a few movie roles with his muscular physique. But in 2012, he was diagnosed with stage 3 colon cancer in his early 40s, requiring major emergency surgery and half a year of chemotherapy.
Recovering from cancer made him realize that focusing on his physique over his health was like building a nice car without proper brakes or steering.
“I wanted a strong frame. I wanted a powerful engine, but I spent so much time building this car, I forgot how to drive it. That’s what I’m doing now,” he said.
Maeda slowly rebuilt his fitness, one rep at a time, and said shorter and simpler can be better for long-term gains.
Build a foundation on the basics: deadlifts, squats, push-ups
Maeda’s current workouts on social media often feature unusual exercises, but he said most people shouldn’t do complicated workouts unless they’ve mastered the basics. You don’t need elaborate movement to build muscle, and the risk of injury can increase as an exercise become more intricate.
“Well into my forties, I didn’t do anything fancy. It was deadlifts, squats, kettlebell swings, just a lot of very fundamental movements,” Maeda said. “Those are what built my physical base, what people see now, the muscle I carry.”
To gain muscle and strength, focus on progressive overload, performing the same exercises over time with gradually increasing weight.
From there, you can explore variations of exercise to keep workouts fun and challenging while improving mobility, agility, and balance.
“I do less of that heavy basic lifting because of the time I have now, I’d rather put it towards movements that spread the stress of what I’m doing more evenly throughout my body,” Maeda said.
Work out in less time by rucking
One regular part of Maeda’s fitness routine is rucking, or walking with weight. He typically carries a 45-pound backpack for 30 minutes a day, at least five days a week, while walking his dogs.
Working out too hard can backfire. A personal trainer shares 4 red flags and 4 green flags to optimize your routine.
He first starting rucking as he was slowly rebuilding his endurance after colon cancer. He began with short walks wearing a backpack full of bricks and added weight (and better gear through his partnership with fitness brand GORUCK) over time.
Building muscle and endurance comes from challenging your body over time. Rucking provides a convenient way to work the muscles during activities that are already a part of a routine, like walking dogs or taking a hike.
For Maeda, it added an extra challenge without taking more time out of his day.
“It got me to a point where just walking seemed like a total waste of time,” he said. “If I’m doing something that often and I can just put a 45-pound backpack on, that’s a lot of minutes under load.”
Ending a workout early can pay off
In his younger years, Maeda embraced the “no pain, no gain” mindset of tough exercise, but now warns against it
“I don’t personally recommend programs that are aggressive and based on sucking it up and willpower. Life is hard enough,” Maeda said.
He said it’s better not to be completely exhausted after exercise, so you’re energized and excited for the next workout, even if that means cutting your workout short.
“Consistency over days is way more important than a hard weekend warrior workout that means you’re sore for the rest of the week,” he said.
Try this no-equipment workout for beginners
Maeda recommends starting with a workout you can do at home.
To complete his “exercise ladder,” do:
one squat, one push-up;
two squats, two push-ups;
three squats, three push-ups;
continue up to five reps, or until the next set starts to feel daunting.
Over time, you can repeat the workout, aiming to reach a higher number of reps as you progress, or change up the exercises (doing lunges and pull-ups, or single-leg deadlifts and burpees).
10. 11 Personal Finance Goals for Your 40s
Via Art of Manliness: Years ago, we published articles on personal finance goals to strive for in your 20s and in your 30s.
Now that I’m in my 40s, I decided to revisit this series to see if I needed to update my financial goals in my first decade of midlife.
Your 40s are an interesting time, money-wise. Many men enter their peak earning years during this decade. Yet their expenses often increase significantly at the same time. High-school-aged kids may need cars, and those same teenagers may subsequently need help paying for college. Your parents are retiring and aging into their 70s, and you’re starting to think about what financial support they may require in the last decades of their lives. Meanwhile, your own retirement shifts from a distant abstraction into an approaching reality.
During this decade where you’re both starting to enjoy the fruits of your labors, but feeling the pressure of additional demands, you want to make moves to ensure you’re on stable ground now and in the future.
Below are 10 goals, backed by research and the advice of personal finance experts, that will help you not just survive your 40s, but thrive in that decade and in the decades to come:
1. Consider Consulting a Financial Advisor
With higher income and more responsibilities, your financial life is more complex in your 40s.
So consider hiring a fee-only financial advisor to help you navigate these complexities. Fee-only financial advisors don’t make money from selling financial products like insurance or mutual funds, reducing conflicts of interest.
You can pay a fee-only financial advisor by the hour to get advice on planning for retirement, paying for college and potential weddings, updating your estate plan, and reviewing insurance.
If you’re looking for more comprehensive guidance, you can set up an arrangement where the financial advisor gets a percentage of the assets they manage for you.
2. Maintain a Robust Emergency Fund (6–12 Months of Expenses)
By now, you should have a solid emergency fund. In your 40s, the goal is to increase its balance to match the expenses you likely have as a middle-aged man.
Aim for at least six months of essential expenses, or up to a year if you’re in a volatile industry or single-income household. Job hunts for people in their 40s often take longer than for those who are younger. If you were to lose your income, a six-month cash reserve ensures you can keep paying the mortgage and feeding the family while you find your next role. It also prevents you from raiding retirement accounts or going into debt.
Keep this fund in a liquid, low-risk account. Don’t touch it unless it’s a true emergency; replenish it as soon as possible if used.
3. Maximize Your Income
For many men, their 40s are the highest-earning decade of life. The median annual salary for men usually peaks between 45 and 54. Make it a goal to leverage these years as much as possible to set yourself up for true financial security.
To make the most of this decade, you’ll want to maximize your income.
Raises won’t usually fall into your lap. You’ll need to ask for them proactively.
If your boss won’t budge on giving you a raise, consider switching roles or even companies. Changing jobs mid-career can often substantially increase your salary, but so can moving up the ranks at your current job; be sure to check out our podcast on getting a promotion for some solid advice on how to continue to work your way toward the literal or metaphorical corner office.
Additionally, look into creating extra income streams through side businesses or freelancing. At this stage in your career, you probably have valuable expertise others will pay for. Consider moonlighting as a consultant. The extra income you earn now could even evolve into part-time work after you retire.
It’s worth noting that your 40s are not only peak earning years, but may be the last years you have your kids at home. You don’t want to be so focused on maximizing your income that you miss out on maximizing the time you spend with them before becoming an empty nester. It’s a tough line to walk, but strive to strike a balance between filling up your financial treasury, and your memory bank.
4. Avoid Lifestyle Creep
It’s natural to want to reward yourself as your income rises — to finally get that dream car, upgrade to a bigger house, or take more vacations. And you should allow yourself to start splurging a little more in your 40s; you’ve earned it by grinding through your 30s.
But don’t go overboard; every dollar spent on upgrading your lifestyle is one less dollar available for debt reduction or savings. Remember, too, that the cost of another car or a bigger house isn’t just the initial purchase price, but what it will cost you in maintenance, insurance, etc.
Start enjoying yourself more in your 40s, while saving enough to ensure that the next four to five decades are enjoyable as well.
5. Double-Down on Retirement Savings (Aim for 3X Your Salary)
In your 40s, retirement is no longer the abstract-seeming thing it was in your 20s. It will potentially be a concrete reality for you in twenty or so years.
Experts suggest having about three times your annual salary saved by age 40. Don’t worry if you’re not there yet — many aren’t — but use that benchmark to motivate you.
In your 40s, strive to save at least 15% of your income (ideally 20% or more) for retirement. As you save for retirement, take full advantage of tax-advantaged accounts like 401(k)s and IRAs.
How should you allocate your retirement savings in your 40s? When I put this question to personal finance expert Nick Maggiulli, he suggested that for many, it might mean reducing risk due to the increased liabilities they likely have in midlife: “In your 40s and 50s, you should consider reducing this risk to fit your liability profile better. For example, you could consider going from an 80/20 stock/bond portfolio to a 70/30 (or something similar). The key here is not maximizing your net worth, but maximizing your chance of long-term survival.”
6. Eliminate Non-Mortgage Debt and Work Toward Being Mortgage-Free
Ideally, you’ll have paid off all non-mortgage debt in your 30s. If you haven’t, make that a priority in your 40s. Aggressively tackle any lingering debts, like car loans and student loans.
Once you’ve eliminated all non-mortgage debt, start focusing on your mortgage. While you don’t necessarily need to pay it off during your 40s, you should have a clear plan for eliminating it as soon as financially feasible.
If you can swing it, start making extra principal payments. Even one extra payment a year (or adding, say, $200 extra each month) can knock years off a 30-year loan. Check with your lender that extra payments go toward the principal.
7. Bolster Kids’ College Funds (But Not at the Expense of Retirement)
In your 40s, your children may be in high school, and college costs are looming. Ideally, you started a 529 account for your kids in your 30s; if not, start one now. With 529 accounts, gains and distributions/withdrawals for education aren’t taxed.
As you save for your kids’ education, don’t do so at the expense of your retirement. Your retirement should always be the priority when saving. Your kids have options for education financing, but you don’t have one for retirement.
8. Plan for Aging Parents and Family Care Responsibilities
More than half of 40-somethings are either raising children under 18 or financially supporting adult children, and have at least one parent aged 65 or older. About a quarter of adults in their 40s and 50s actively provide financial assistance or regular care to their aging parents — a percentage that only increases as members of this “sandwich generation” and their parents grow older.
Prepare for a future with aging parents by talking to Mom and Dad about their financial health. Do they have sufficient retirement savings, a will, power of attorney, or healthcare directives? Knowing this upfront can prevent surprises during a crisis.
Second, discuss future care preferences. When their health declines, would your parents prefer living with family or moving into an assisted living facility? Clarifying this sets expectations and shapes future plans. If you have siblings, hold a meeting to define roles and discuss shared costs.
Finally, consider preparing financially by creating a “parent fund” for predictable expenses like medical bills or housing.
Check out the book Mom and Dad, We Need to Talk: How to Have Essential Conversations With Your Parents About Their Finances. I thought it had a lot of good advice.
9. Do an Insurance Check-up
If you bought term life insurance in your 30s (as we recommended), revisit your coverage. Major changes — like more kids, a bigger mortgage, or a higher income — might require additional coverage. A common guideline is 10–15X your annual salary, ensuring your family could replace your income if needed. Term policies are still affordable in your 40s (though premiums rise), so lock in coverage until kids graduate college and your mortgage is paid off.
Also consider umbrella insurance to protect accumulated wealth from liability lawsuits, and disability insurance to replace your income if you can’t work.
10. Do an Estate Plan Check-Up
You should have started your estate planning in your 30s; in your 40s, it’s time to do a check-up.
Revisit and update your will to reflect current realities, like new assets or guardians for your kids.
Double-check beneficiary designations on retirement accounts, insurance, and investments; these override your will, so accuracy is crucial.
Ensure you have durable powers of attorney (for financial decisions) and healthcare proxies, naming people you trust.
Explore advanced strategies like trusts or charitable giving if your estate is sizable.
Communicate with your spouse and estate executor about your plans and where key documents are stored.
11. Plan Your Next Chapter of Life
Having a clear retirement vision guides your financial choices today. Outline your ideal retirement. When will you retire? Where will you live? How will you spend your time? Cruising? Volunteering? Working part-time? Answers to these big-picture questions will shape how you save in your 40s.
Next, calculate your retirement “number.” Most aim for savings that generate 70–80% of pre-retirement income annually. Use retirement calculators or a financial planner to check your progress, adjusting your savings or expectations if needed.
Finally, prepare for potential healthcare costs. You might live into your 90s, so your savings could need to last over 30 years after you retire.
Your 40s are a busy and sometimes stressful decade, but with thoughtful planning and strategic actions, you can balance today’s demands with tomorrow’s dreams. Use these goals as your financial roadmap, and you’ll enter your 50s with confidence and clarity, knowing you’ve laid a strong foundation for the years ahead. I’ll see you in 10 years with an article on financial goals for that decade of life!
1. The Tech Industry is Huge and Europe’s Share is Very Small—”pubs in London’s financial district are usually full at 2 p.m. on Thursdays.”
Odenwald had spent nearly three decades working in California but hoped he could help build a European tech giant to compete with the Americans. He was shocked by what he saw. Colleagues lacked engineering skills. None of his team had stock options, reducing their incentive to succeed. Everything moved slowly. After two months, Odenwald quit and returned to California.
WSJ
2. S&P 500 +19% in 27 Trading Days …One of the Greatest Comebacks in Market History
In Rare Company”: The S&P 500 is up over 19% in the last 27 trading days, one of the greatest comebacks in stock market history.
Charlie Bilelo
What immediately jumps out when looking at that table of big short-term rallies?
With the exception of November-December 2008, all have occurred at the start of new bull markets, following historic bear market lows in…
3. No Idea What Shakes Out Here…But Interesting Chart
Netscape vs. ChatGPT. “The Nasdaq after the releases of Netscape versus ChatGPT continues to track eerily closely. Bulls should hope the trend remains because we’re still in 1997 on this analogue…”
Bespoke
4. Mega Cap AI Capital Spending Not Slowing Down
Bespoke
5. However Venture Different Story…New report shows the staggering AI cash surge — and the rise of the ‘zombiecorn’
Key Points
Silicon Valley Bank said in a report published on Tuesday that about 40% of the money raised by U.S. startups last year came from funds focused on AI.
Capital-intensive companies like OpenAI and Anthropic require billions of dollars to fuel their growth, but investors aren’t getting returns yet, and the IPO market has remained quiet.
Thus, there’s been an increase in the number of “zombiecorns,” or companies “with poor revenue growth and unit economics” that are struggling to raise money, the report said.
Via CNBC: Venture capital firms focused on artificial intelligence are driving much of the growth in the startup market, while companies in other areas are struggling to raise cash, according to a report from Silicon Valley Bank.
About 40% of the total amount raised by U.S. venture funds last year was from funds that “list AI as a focus,” SVB said in its “State of enterprise software” report published on Tuesday. That’s up from 10% in 2021. AI companies accounted for 45% of U.S. venture investment in enterprise software, jumping from 9% in 2022.
The dollars from AI megadeals — rounds of $100 million or greater — represented about half of all the money raised in the overall megadeal category. That’s a group that includes OpenAI and Anthropic.
“Exclude AI investment and the story changes,” the SVB report said. “There is no meaningful uptick for companies not leveraging AI, with investment from this group essentially flat for the last year.”
The challenge for the broader market is that exit activity remains tight, a theme that’s been in place since soaring inflation in late 2021 led to rising interest rates and a move out of risk.
Many investors were bullish that President Donald Trump’s return to the White House would reinvigorate the startup economy due to the prospect of lower taxes and less regulation, but the aggressive tariff policy announced in early April led several companies to delay planned IPOs.
The tech IPO market is showing signs of picking back up.
6. QQQ Short-Term Oversold to Overbought in One Month on RSI (arrows)
StockCharts
7. Analysts Stop Cutting Earnings Estimates
Sherwood
8. Retail Investors Still Underperform Even After Buying the Dip
SPACS R BACK – A new cast of boutique banks is fuelling a fresh fervour for blank-cheque companies — one of Wall Street’s hottest and most controversial products during the pandemic-era bull market. Special purpose acquisition vehicles, or Spacs, exploded in popularity during the Covid-19 crisis, with around 600 deals in the US raising a record $163bn in 2021 before the frenzy died down as global stocks tumbled the following year due to rising interest rates.
Dave Lutz at Jones Trading
But the market has revved up again since Donald Trump won his second term as president, despite volatility sparked by his tariffs delaying several traditional initial public offerings. There have been 44 Spac offerings this year raising $9bn, compared with 57 raising $9.6bn during the whole of 2024, Dealogic data shows. Four years ago, Credit Suisse, Citibank, Deutsche Bank and Jefferies were among the busiest Spac advisers. But a cluster of lesser-known firms including Cohen & Company Capital Markets, D Boral Capital (The old EF Hutton), Clear Street and come to dominate the sector.
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10. It is What it Is: The Power of Withholding Judgement (Meaningful Money)
❝There is nothing either good or bad, but thinking makes it so.❞ – William Shakespeare, Hamlet
You may have heard the old story about the Chinese farmer.
One day, his horse runs away. His neighbors come by and say, “What bad luck!”
The farmer simply replies, “Maybe.”
The next day, the horse returns with some friends—three wild horses.
“This is amazing!” the neighbors say.
“Maybe,” the farmer replies.
The following day, the farmer’s son tries to ride one of the wild horses, gets thrown off, and breaks his leg.
“Oh no, how terrible,” the neighbors say.
“Maybe,” says the farmer.
Then the army comes to town, drafting all the able-bodied young men. But because of the broken leg, the farmer’s son is spared.
“Wow, what good fortune!” the neighbors say.
“Maybe,” the farmer replies.
And on it goes.
We tend to label our experiences—this is good, that’s bad, this is unfair, that’s amazing. But the story of the farmer reminds us: it’s not always so clear.
Something that feels awful today might turn out to be a blessing in disguise. Something that seems great could lead to pain later on. Sometimes we just don’t know yet.
Even deeper than that, maybe the idea of “good” or “bad” is just something we’ve made up. We naturally reach for what feels pleasant and push away what feels unpleasant. But what if things just… are?
There’s a phrase I used to hear growing up: “It is what it is.”
I hated it. It felt like giving up. If I said, “This sucks,” and a friend replied, “It is what it is,” I felt dismissed.
But as I’ve grown, I’ve realized it might hold more wisdom than I gave it credit for.
Maybe “it is what it is” is simply an invitation to not rush to judgment.
OUR JUDGMENT GLASSES
Here’s a simple truth: we’re always the main character in our own story.
If you’re watching a nature documentary and it follows a hungry lion, you might cheer when it finally catches an antelope. But if the next episode follows a lost antelope trying to survive, you’ll mourn when it gets eaten by a lion.
Same event. Different perspective.
The story changes depending on who you’re rooting for. That’s how we work too. When I land a new job, I celebrate. But for the person who was hoping to be promoted into that role? It’s a disappointment.
We see life through the lens of our own experience. It’s like we’re all wearing a pair of invisible judgment glasses—glasses that filter everything into good or bad. And most of the time, we don’t even realize we’re wearing them.
We all see the world through our own lens—what I like to think of as judgment-filter glasses. Our experiences, beliefs, and values shape how we interpret the world. They color everything we see.
That filter can quietly shift how we feel. It turns “what I feel” into “what I should feel.” And when that happens, we lose connection with what’s really here.
