2. Another New Record in U.S. Equity Concentration….5 Stocks 70% of Nasdaq Gains.
3. Quant Traders Covered Shorts Tuesday.
Marketwatch..Who were the big buyers of Tuesday’s stock rally? Vanda Research says institutional buyers stepped in for fatigued retail traders, specifically “systematic strategies being forced to cover their short positions.” Vanda Research Systematic traders make use of factors such as quantitative models, historical data and technical indicators to figure out when to get in and out of trades. The Vanda team also says discretionary hedge funds have also been buying up some excess tech stock supply out there, and that may also help draw in retail investors ahead of seasonal tailwinds.
4 . Last Week I Showed Office Transactions -84% ….Real Estate Sector vs. S&P All-Time Low…..REITS Now Only 5% of S&P
REIT Sector Rallies to 200-Day Moving Average
5. U.S. Dollar Fails at Previous Highs.
6. What is an AI Fund? What are the Holdings?
7. Tesla is down since it joined S&P 500
Barrons Tesla’s (ticker: TSLA) truly terrible performance since being added to the index is something that deserves much more attention. I hadn’t realized how wild Tesla’s ride has been for long-term S&P 500 fund investors—including me—until a recent conversation I had with Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices. During our talk in early November, Silverblatt mentioned that Tesla’s share price was below what it had been when it first joined the S&P 500 in late 2020. I found that hard to believe—but when I hunted up some numbers, I saw that Silverblatt was right. According to Silverblatt’s numbers, the S&P 500 had a total return—price gains plus reinvested dividends—of 27.02% from the time Tesla joined the index through Nov. 15. Because Tesla doesn’t pay a dividend, its return during that period was a mere 4.82%—the increase in its share price over that period. (After a bad day on Nov. 16, its return had fallen to 0.08%.) By Allan Sloan
2. The Nasdaq Averages a -10% Correction Every 175 Days.
Nasdaq Dorsey Wright The Nasdaq 100 Index NDX fell into correction territory on Thursday as it closed lower than 10% off the 15,841 high seen in mid-July. We have seen NDX fall over 4.5% in the past week alone, and it has declined more than 2% in back-to-back weeks for the first time since December 2022. This 10% correction comes 303 calendar days after the last 10% correction was reached on December 27, 2022, which is quite a long gap based on historical averages. Going back to 1992, we see a 10% correction in the NDX every 175 days on average, with a median gap of about 110 days between such events. That average equates to roughly two 10% corrections experienced each year. Of course, some years have far more than that, with nine corrections events seen in 2000 and four events seen last year in 2022.
The current correction has also been more drawn out than normal. We typically see the peak-to-trough decline in prior correction events take 46 days on average, while the current correction has already taken 100 days. Past corrections show an average pullback-to-trough timeframe of 21 days, with a median of 11 days. If we hold those historical norms, that will see NDX put in at least a near-term bottom before we see family for Thanksgiving.
3. Software ETF -17% from Highs
4. 20-Year Treasury New Lows…Inflows Massive.
5. Fund Managers Consensus is Lower Rates 2024
6. UPS Chart Heading into Holiday Season.
7. Cryptocurrency: Crypto trading volumes have dropped globally across all exchanges this year.
@Charlie Bilello Fast forward to today and that game has ended in tears for anyone that bought in the summer of 2022 with the expectation of selling to a greater fool.
The average price of a used Tesla is now $28k lower than the peak price in July 2022, a 41% decline. Cars are once again a depreciating asset.
9. White House opens $45 billion in federal funds to developers to covert offices to homes
Morningstar By Joy Wiltermuth
Biden administration turns to developers to help ease U.S. housing crisis
The White House kicked off a multiagency push on Friday to help finance real-estate developers convert more office buildings in big cities emptied by the pandemic into affordable housing, taking aim at the nation’s housing crisis.
The initiative looks to harness an existing $35 billion in low-cost loans already available through the Transportation Department to fund housing developments near transit hubs, folding it into the Biden administration’s clean energy push.
It also opens up additional funding sources and tax incentives, offering a new guidebook to 20 different federal programs that can be tapped by developers and offers technical assistance in what can end up being tricky and expensive conversions.
A third peg of the program will see the federal government draw up a public list of buildings it owns that could be made available for sale to help bolster development.
“These downtowns and central business districts that we are taking about today often already designed and orientated around public transit,” said Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, in a press briefing. “Our intention is to make the most of this opportunity to add more housing near transit in ways that not only reduces the cost of housing, but also often reduces the cost of transportation.”
National office vacancies have neared 25%, versus 8% in Europe, according to Savills, a real-estate firm. Vacancy rates in hard-hit cities like San Francisco have gone even higher, setting fresh records as property values plunge and more owners default on their mortgage loans.
“The only thing that is missing today is a lack of financing,” said Nathan Berman, a founding principal of Metro Loft, a go-to firm for New York City office-to-residential conversions that helped transform lower Manhattan in the past 20 years.
The heart of many cities in the wake of the COVID crisis are littered with sparsely populated office buildings available at bargain basement prices. But Berman told MarketWatch that financing has all but stalled for conversions. “It’s really interest rates that are killing everything.”
Borrowing costs have shot up since the Federal Reserve began raising rates last year to fight inflation, resulting in a credit crunch on building owners with debt coming due. Companies also remain unsure about how much space they need, or what they’re willing to pay for it.
Read: More office zombies? Only 11% of maturing loans repay in September, Moody’s Analytics says
In Washington, D.C., where the federal government has a major office footprint, years of remote federal work have been a key source of industry angst. Government efforts to breath new life into obsolete buildings by turning them into rentals could be a rare redevelopment opportunity, as MarketWatch reported in August.
See: White House wants federal workers back in the office in September
The federal government owns about 1,500 office buildings nationally and had leases on almost 200 million square feet of additional space as of April, according to Barclays analysts, who said in a recent report that much of that office space was underused.
The new White House effort, in addition to DOT funding, will give developers access to $10 billion in funds allocated to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development’s community development block grant program.
“With a shortage of millions of homes nationwide, we need to utilize every resource at our disposal to increase housing supply, which in turn, given the high demand, will help with rent levels and purchase costs,” said Adrianne Todman, HUD deputy secretary, during the press briefing.
Related: San Francisco’s push to turn office buildings into homes hinges on this simple idea
This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
10. Life Lessons From Byron Wien-RIP to Wall Street Legend
Network intensely. Luck plays a big role in life, and there is no better way to increase your luck than by knowing as many people as possible. Nurture your network by sending articles, books and emails to people to show you’re thinking about them. Write op-eds and thought pieces for major publications. Organize discussion groups to bring your thoughtful friends together.
When you meet someone new, treat that person as a friend. Assume he or she is a winner and will become a positive force in your life. Most people wait for others to prove their value. Give them the benefit of the doubt from the start. Occasionally you will be disappointed, but your network will broaden rapidly if you follow this path.
Read all the time. Don’t just do it because you’re curious about something, read actively. Have a point of view before you start a book or article and see if what you think is confirmed or refuted by the author. If you do that, you will read faster and comprehend more.
Get enough sleep. Seven hours will do until you’re 60, eight from 60 to 70, nine thereafter, which might include eight hours at night and a one-hour afternoon nap.
Travel extensively. Try to get everywhere before you wear out. Attempt to meet local interesting people where you travel and keep in contact with them throughout your life. See them when you return to a place.
On philanthropy, try to relieve pain rather than spread joy. Music, theater and art museums have many affluent supporters, give the best parties and can add to your social luster in a community. They don’t need you. Social service, hospitals and educational institutions can make the world a better place and help the disadvantaged make their way toward the American dream.
The hard way is always the right way. Never take shortcuts, except when driving home from the Hamptons. Shortcuts can be construed as sloppiness, a career killer.
Don’t try to be better than your competitors, try to be different. There is always going to be someone smarter than you, but there may not be someone who is more imaginative.
When seeking a career as you come out of school or making a job change, always take the job that looks like it will be the most enjoyable.If it pays the most, you’re lucky. If it doesn’t, take it anyway, I took a severe pay cut to accept each of the two best jobs I’ve ever had, and they both turned out to be exceptionally rewarding financially.
Never retire. If you work forever, you can live forever. I know there is an abundance of biological evidence against this theory, but I’m going with it anyway.
Nasdaq Dorsey Wright Headline and Core CPI inflation lower than expected Today’s inflation data was exactly what the Fed and markets were looking for.
Both headline and core CPI inflation came in lower than expected, solidifying market expectations that the Fed’s rate hike cycle is over and more cuts are on tap than the Fed projects, which is a boost to markets.
Headline inflation fell to 3.2% YoY from 3.7% (chart below, orange line) and core slipped to 4.0% YoY from 4.1% (blue line). From here, many economists expect inflation to approach the Fed’s 2% target around mid-2024 (dashed arrows).
Advisor Perspectives Blog-Gasoline Prices Have Now Fallen for 8 Straight Weeksby Jennifer Nash, 11/14/23
Gas prices have now fallen for 8 straight weeks, the longest streak of the year. As of November 13, the price of regular and premium gas each fell by 5 cents from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for regular at $5.00 and Texas has the cheapest at $2.73.
Currently, the national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline stands at $3.35, with premium gasoline averaging $4.26 per gallon. One year ago, regular gas was priced at $3.76 per gallon, while premium gas was at $4.62 per gallon.
Zerohedge Blog According to real estate specialist Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), office vacancy rates are higher than ever, reaching 21 percent in the U.S. and Canada in Q3 2023 and 16 percent globally, i.e. in the 100+ markets analyzed by JLL Research. In both cases, that’s an increase of 60 percent compared to pre-pandemic vacancy rates, which stood at 13 and 10 percent in North America and globally in Q3 2019, respectively.
As a rule, organizations in their early stages are highly creative and have few rules or low rule density. They might have a rule guiding everything they do in the business, such as “We want to make the customer happy.”
This makes sense in these early days because the goal is to do everything possible to survive.
As companies scale, rules and bureaucracy come into play to keep things organized. The catch is that entrepreneurs tend to hate rules–which is why most organizations find themselves at a crossroads if they continue to scale.
There has been a lot of research on the concept of complex adaptive systems. These systems that can adapt and evolve embrace both rules and creativity.
Think about it: there are areas in every organization where rules make sense. You need stability and predictability, like making monthly payrolls and ensuring books are accurate. That’s why departments like HR, accounting, and even operations rely heavily on rules. In the complex system of a human being, the comparison might be things that need to happen all the time and automatically, like breathing.
But we also know what happens when rules dominate everything: it squeezes out the creativity that is vital for the organization to move ahead innovatively. The hard can push out the soft.
For example, if you want your marketing team to develop creative and innovative campaigns for your products and services, you can’t load them up with rules. The same goes for product development. You want them to think far less about following the rules and more about breaking them in search of new ideas.
The goal, therefore, is to find that balance where your organization can adapt and grow.
The role of the leader
As a leader, you should strike that balance between rules and creativity. And it’s that zone where opposing forces meet and conflict often occurs.
You can imagine a scenario where your sales team is chasing a big $20 million deal, and they neglected to file their expense report on time–which infuriates the accounting team. What do you do? Which is more critical in this scenario: the sales team chasing the big deal or following the rules when it comes to expense reports?
Another example: When I was running an early-stage company that was scaling fast, one of my administrative leaders devised a plan to write a 50-page employee handbook with rules defining everything everyone had to do in the company.
But I saw this kind of project as a slippery slope to becoming a rules-based business at a time when we were trying to adapt and survive. So I nixed the employee handbook project in favor of a much simpler concept: our one rule was that every employee was expected to “Behave like an adult professional.” That’s it. Simple, and it provided a tremendous guiding principle for us as we continued to grow and scale the business over the next few years. I knew that eventually, we would need to add rules as the organization scaled, but that would happen after we had refined and grown the business.
The trick, again, is balance. Low rule density when you are seeking innovation, and higher rule density when you are looking for predictability.
Adapting to the future
Every organization will face this conflict between following rules and breaking the rules in search of creativity and innovation. And the truth is, you need both. But the laws of nature tend to lead to the hard rules pushing out the soft creative ones over time. Don’t let it happen in your organization. When too many rules creep into your organization, you risk losing your ability to adapt to the future.
Nasdaq Dorsey Wright -The Nasdaq 100 Index NDX has shown sharp improvement over the past couple of weeks, rising by almost 10% from its October 26 closing low after posting a gain in 10 out of the past 11 trading days. This includes a 9-day consecutive rally streak that saw NDX rise over 8.5% before showing a slight decline on Thursday. While the Nasdaq 100 Index has seen more than its fair share of improvement this year, it is rare to see 9 positive days in a row for the growth benchmark. There have only been 12 other periods dating back to December 1992 where NDX has risen for at least 9 consecutive trading days. The last occurrence was almost exactly two years ago, with a 10-day stretch that ended on 11/5/2021. Of course, the forward market action for NDX showed weakness after that date, as it was one of just two out of the 12 other periods that saw a negative NDX return one year after the positive day streak. Most others have shown consistent improvement, with NDX continuing higher the next week 50% of the time, which improves to a 75% hit rate that it will post a gain over the next six months. It is important to note that the forward returns from these dates will inherently show near-term weakness, as the last day of a winning streak must be followed by at least one down day to be included in our examination. Furthermore, we see the average and median forward returns from these dates have not been much higher than the average and median forward returns from any date since 1992. While we may not be able to use a consecutive gain streak as a great indication of future strength, the more important takeaway is that the ending of these streaks does not typically correspond with market tops.
2. FAANG+ 13% Rally from October Pullback……8250 Previous Highs…
3. NVDA Approaching Highs…$500
4. Dividend Stocks vs. Non-Dividend 2023
5. More Alternative Energy Names….PLUG -50% in One Month.
6. Is Buffett Bearish on China or EV Space or Both? Exits BYD
Warren Buffett’s company slashed its stake in BYD. Here’s why that’s surprising – and 5 possible explanations.Business Insider Theron Mohamed
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has sold more than 60% of its BYD shares since last summer.
Buffett may have been taking profits, pruning his portfolio, or cutting his geopolitical exposure.
Here’s why the stock sales are surprising, and what the thinking might be behind them.
Why did Berkshire sell?A big reason that Berkshire has been cashing in its BYD stock may be geopolitics. The US and China have been clashing in recent months over everything from microchips and Taiwan to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Buffett and Munger may have decided to pull back from China given the rising tensions — the reason why they dumped Taiwan Semiconductor only a few months after buying it.
Buffett said in April that the breathless rise in BYD stock over the past few years, and the possibility of finding something better to invest in, were factors in the sale. He and Munger may have opted to realize some of the roughly 30-fold gain they’d made on the stock, especially as the company faces more than a few risks.
BYD is more aggressively valued than in years past, it’s still in a capital-intensive business in a brutally competitive industry, and investing heavily in battery development and other technologies.
The Berkshire chief may have found it easier to offload BYD than other stocks because it was never the best fit for his portfolio. The 93-year-old investor generally sticks to US-based companies in industries he deeply understands like fast food or insurance – a Chinese EV maker was always out of his comfort zone.
It’s not clear whether Buffett and Munger sold BYD stock because they wanted to take profits, free up cash, prune their portfolio, cut their geopolitical risk, or avoid future problems at the company. Berkshire shareholders will be watching closely to see if they sell any more shares – or provide further explanation.
9. Can’t Think, Can’t Remember: More Americans Say They’re in a Cognitive Fog
DNYUZ BLOG There are more Americans who say they have serious cognitive problems — with remembering, concentrating or making decisions — than at any time in the last 15 years, data from the Census Bureau shows.
The increase started with the pandemic: The number of working-age adults reporting “serious difficulty” thinking has climbed by an estimated one million people
What we can learn from everyday heroes-Psychology Today Steven Hayes.
We exhibit forms of mental strength every single day.
The more we willingly enter into our own experience in service of a greater purpose, the stronger we become.
Consider four qualities of mentally strong people to improve your own mental strength and overall well-being.
We often reserve the term “mentally strong” to describe people who accomplished extraordinary feats in the face of great adversity. Rarely, however, do we use these words to describe ourselves; possibly because we are painfully aware of our own shortcomings, or because we don’t consider our achievements as noteworthy enough. But mental strength comes in many shapes and forms. And if we pay attention and know where to look, we can witness it every single day — in both ourselves and other people around us.
For instance, do you ever feel tired after waking up, but still get dressed because you don’t want to be late for work? Or have you ever wanted to shout profanities after being cut off in traffic on your way to work, but decided not to because your child was in the backseat? Both of these examples require mental strength. It’s not just unpleasant emotions either that require mental strength — have you ever allowed a compliment to penetrate your being without an automatic dismissal, or allowed your eyes to linger in your lover’s eyes just a moment longer, even though you feel vulnerable in doing so? That too is mental strength.
Whenever you display a willingness to more fully enter your own experience in the service of a greater purpose, you exhibit mental strength. And the more frequently you act this way, the more you stretch your mental muscles and the more you strengthen your ability to act in a purpose-driven way in the future.
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Naturally, becoming mentally strong isn’t always easy, nor is it straightforward. The process involves a lot of nuance, and it requires you to foster distinct qualities along the way. Specifically, four qualities stand out, and if you practice any of them you can improve not just your mental strength but also your overall well-being. You might already recognize some of these qualities in yourself, whereas others may feel entirely foreign to you. Either way, please view the following list not as a yardstick by which to rate yourself, but as opportunities for your personal growth. With that being said, here are four qualities of mentally strong people.
1. They are open to new possibilities
Mentally strong people don’t stay on a single-loop track. They are rarely limited by preconceived notions about how they have to think, feel, or act, who they have to be, what they have to focus on, or what they have to care about. Rather than rigidly following self-imposed rules, mentally strong people are more open, can choose more freely, and are more likely to explore new possibilities. They can hold disparate thoughts at the same time; they can stay when an automatic mindset says to leave; they can let go when the mind says to cling. Because of these habits of mind and behavior, they can access a broader range of their experiences — both pleasant and unpleasant — without having to resist or cling to them.
Now, please notice what your mind does with this information, because it’s easy to fall into the trap of “I always have to be open to new possibilities” (which, ironically, is just another self-imposed rule). Rather than obeying your mind, see if you can just notice that this thought is currently unfolding in your consciousness, and allow it to be without following its demand. You can practice trying out new possibilities without turning it into a rule that you always “have” to do. After all, you are free to choose, again and again.
2. They choose what works
Mentally strong people are not just more open to new strategies, they are also more likely to choose the ones that work. This may sound simple enough, but this quality actually contains several sub-skills. For starters, it requires knowing your objectives — whether this is about your goals or deeper-seated values. In either case, you need to have a pretty clear direction, so you know what even constitutes as “working” in the first place. Additionally, it requires a certain level of self-awareness, so you can assess whether you are actually moving closer to your objectives or whether you are just deluding yourself.
I highly recommend going through the process of clarifying your objectives with a trained mental health professional, because it’s easy to lose sight of your deeper goals and values, or to mistakenly believe that you are making progress, when in reality you are not. If this is currently not an option for you, I advise monitoring your goals with the help of a trusted person, and/or getting objective feedback with a tracking device (e.g., by using an app on your smartphone). Having a reliable feedback system is essential when it comes to making effective improvements.
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3. They build successful habits
If you’ve read self-help articles before, you probably know what comes next. Yes, it is a cliché, but for good reasons because becoming mentally strong doesn’t happen by chance. Instead, it happens by consistently acting in ways that move you towards your chosen objectives. The emphasis here lies in the word “consistently,” because one-off actions are rarely enough to have a lasting impact. Only by building successful actions into habits can you gain the momentum needed to make a difference in your mental fortitude and your life in general.
I advise you to start slowly. Choose a new action — like going for a daily jog — and then break it down into something smaller. Probably even smaller still. So small, in fact, that it becomes almost ridiculous for you not to do it. This might mean going for a one-minute jog and then returning home. The key here is to not yet focus on the desired end result, but rather to focus on building consistency. Give yourself a “10-day challenge” in which every day you do something that carries you forward. You can aim bigger once you have shown some consistency in your efforts.
4. They adjust to their circumstances
Finally, mentally strong people adapt to their circumstances. They don’t wait for the perfect conditions before they can start taking action, nor do they stubbornly persist in their efforts, disregarding any feedback. Instead, they are more resourceful. They can accurately estimate the demands of their current context, their own capabilities, and then adjust their actions and expectations accordingly, so that they still pursue their objectives at a level that is workable, given their current inner and outer circumstances.
A choice that is right in one context may be disastrous in another, and vice versa. For instance, if you’re driving over the speed limit, you risk injuring yourself and others. However, if a loved one sits in the backseat and is in serious need of medical attention, rushing to the nearest hospital may be the right course of action. There are rarely any easy answers, and what you consider being “right” almost always depends on your context. Mentally strong people are aware of this dilemma, and adjust themselves — again, and again.
3. Bitcoin: 52-Week High Two Years After a Record High-Bespoke
Even for a volatile asset class, it has been quite a week for crypto-related assets. With a gain of nearly 8% for the week, Bitcoin rallied to 52-week highs and crossed above 35K, 36K, and 37K in the process. Year to date, the largest cryptocurrency is up over 125%, but looking at the chart below, all of the year’s gains have been confined to a handful of trading days in January, March, June, and now.
Ethereum had an even bigger week, rallying by over 14.5% and nearly doubling the gain in Bitcoin. Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum was trading just shy of its YTD high from back in April.
6. Average Borrowing Rate for Used Cars 3.85% to 7.3%
Dave Lutz Jones Trading Auto research firm Cox Automotive – the owner of the closely followed Manheim price index – published new data last week for October that shows wholesale used-vehicle prices continue to slide and have reached the lowest levels since April 2021. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index stood at 209.4 in October, down 2.3% from September. The index is down 4% from a year ago. Sliding demand comes as Bankrate data shows the average borrowing rates for used cars have surged from around 3.85% in Feb. 2022 to 7.3% this month
7. Autonomous Vehicles and Profitability
CHARTR Predictions of whenfully autonomous cars make their way into mainstream adoption have, historically, been way too optimistic. Elon Musk believes that Tesla is “very close” to delivering on level 4 or 5 self-driving, although it’s worth noting that similar comments have been made by Tesla’s head honcho in years gone by. What is easy to predict: getting to level 5 is going to continue requiring an enormous amount of money.
Are we there yet? Data from Crunchbase reveals that the amount of venture capital funding being poured into AVs has fallen sharply from its peak, and the willingness of industry incumbents to invest billions into projects with uncertain timelines also seems to be fading.
Cruise, for example, reportedly only has 9 months of cash left, having burned through more than $8 billion since 2017, and this week a senior executive at Honda, which has also invested heavily into the company, said it had no plans to invest more. Waymo cut 100 jobs earlier this year, Ford-backed Argo AI has already shut down, and the pivot to electric vehicles is proving enough of an expense for many manufacturers, without the added complication of building full autonomy. Even as AI hype grows by the day, the road to full self-driving suddenly seems a little longer. www.chartr.com
8. Housing Market Affordability
From Barry Ritholtz Blog Taking into account mortgage rates, local house prices, and local incomes, buying a home in markets like L.A. and Miami today is more expensive than it was in 1981
9. A Record High Share of U.S. Consumers are Planning International Vacation
Torston Slok Apollo Group
10. Tiny Thought(s)-Farnam Street Blog
Anyone can do it once. The best do it consistently. Anyone can order a healthy meal once. Anyone can get up early to workout once. Anyone can save more than they earn for a month. Anyone can take their partner on a date once. Anyone can write a page. Anyone can focus on one thing for an hour. Most people can’t do it consistently because they want instant gratification. They want to see the results … right now. Just because the results aren’t immediately visible, doesn’t mean they are not accumulating. Ordinary moments compound over weeks and months into extraordinary results. Consistently boring days make for extraordinary decades.
There are a lot of things you don’t control. You don’t get to pick your parents. You don’t get to pick the country you are born in. You don’t get to pick your given talent. You don’t get to pick the test. You don’t control where you start, but you can change where you go. Integrity is a choice. Kindness is a choice. Hard work is a choice. Preparation is a choice. Consistency is a choice. Your attitude is a choice. Your response is a choice. The people you hang around are a choice. Changing your trajectory is a choice.
The person who focuses on fewer things goes further than the person distracted by many. https://fs.blog