Topley’s Top 10 – November 22, 2022

1. Median Price to Sales of Nasdaq 100 Cut in Half

@Charlie BilelloThe same can be said for the median company in the Nasdaq 100, which now has a Price to Sales ratio of 4.2x (down from 8.5x a year ago), the lowest we’ve seen since 2016. Not “cheap” but most definitely cheaper after the 35% decline in the past year.

2. Currencies 2022

State Street

3. Personal Savings Rate vs. Credit Card Growth

Hedge Fund Association Linkedin

4. U.S. Stocks Vs. International

Wisdom Tree Blog Andrew Okrongly  Breaking down to value and small cap

5. COINBASE New Lows….-86% One-Year

COIN next run on the bank for Crypto space???

6. Tesla at 200 Week Moving Average

Tesla trades down to 200 week moving average….$125 Covid Lows 2020

7. U.S. Energy Consumption by Source …Breakdown of Renewables

Found at Nasdaq Dorsey Wright

8. Shrinking Costs of Alternative Energy Sources.

Bloomberg By Liam Denning

9. The Prius 237k Sales to 32k New (old) model Toyota is updating the Prius, its pioneering hybrid model, some 22 years since the car first hit the US market. Now into its fifth generation, the Japanese carmaker’s iconic eco-friendlier vehicle is losing favor with climate-conscious consumers. Sales have fallen nearly every year since 2012 — when more than 230,000 vehicles in the Prius family were sold in the US.
Out of gasThe new Prius will launch in Japan, Europe, and North America in 2023 and comes with some enhanced climate credentials, like its 50% boosted EV driving range and improved solar power capabilities. However, with growing emphasis on (and consumer interest infully-electrified models, it’s not entirely clear where the Prius plugs into the market.
The company confirmed, for instance, that the new model would not be on sale in the UK due to waning demand, and it’s not just Britain either. US Prius sales could be on for their worst year since 2004, with just under 30,000 sold so far in 2022.
Toyota does have plans to become a little more Tesla by 2030, with a pledge to push 50% of its spending in the next 8 years into the battery electric vehicle game (where they only have one car at the moment). But they don’t seem ready to say goodbye to an old favorite just yet.

10. Want to sound more confident? Ditch these 10 phrases that make you look ‘insecure’ and ‘arrogant,’ say word experts

Kathy and Ross Petras, Contributors@KANDRPETRAS

We’ve all been there: You want people to think that you’re confident and capable, but somehow, you wind up saying the wrong things that create a sense of arrogance, which is rooted in insecurity.

As word experts and hosts of NPR’s award-winning podcast “You’re Saying It Wrong,” we’ve found ways to help you tread that fine line between looking confident and looking like you’re arrogant and insecure.

Here are 10 phrases to ditch if you want to sound more self-assured and likable, according to behavioral experts and psychologists:

1. “I don’t mean to brag, but …”

You don’t mean to brag? Then don’t. People who set up a statement with this phrase automatically signal that they are about to, yes, brag, which turns listeners off.

Plus, since bragging is one of the hallmarks of narcissistic behavior, you’re not coming off as confident, but just full of yourself.

2. “I already knew that …” (or “Doesn’t everyone know that?”)

The scenario: A coworker explains something to you, and you reply: “Of course. I already knew that.”

You might think this response makes you sound knowledgeable, but it actually sounds dismissive and arrogant. A simple “thanks” or “yes” is a better way to respond to someone’s explanation.

3. “I’m pretty sure that …” 

It’s fine to be sure about things, but don’t overdo it, especially if you’re actually not sure. Research shows that narcissists rarely use words like “maybe,” “guess” or “perhaps.”

Being confident enough to say that you don’t know something can be the best way to initiate trust in your judgment. It also makes others feel empowered to explain things to you.

4. “No offense, but ….”

This immediately sets up an adversarial conversation: You’re overtly indicating that you’re about to say something that could — and probably will — offend someone.

Sounding like you think you have the authority to critique others won’t win you any friends. To compound matters, it’s also textbook passive-aggressive behavior.

5. Overusing “I” (or “me)

When people hear a lot of “I’s” and “me’s,” there’s a strong chance they might think of you as self-centered or narcissistic.

Research shows that people feel more positive about other people who use inclusive words like “we” and “our team.” When writing emails or text messages, check to see how many of your sentences start with an “I.” Chances are there are more than you think.

6. “Oh, I’m just kidding!”

This is a passive-aggressive way of indicating that you think you know better. When you follow up a comment or criticism with a “just kidding” in an attempt to take the sting out of it, you’re not fooling anyone. You’re just insulting the other person.

It’s better to simply not say anything that has to be laughed off in the first place.

7. “You probably don’t know this, but …”

This phrase is practically guaranteed to irritate the listener. Again, you’re being dismissive of the other person’s knowledge or capabilities.

If you want to share information, share it without the obnoxious disclaimer.

8. “I’m surprised you’re having problems with this. It’s so easy!”

Maybe you really are surprised that someone can’t do or understand something, and maybe you really do think it’s so easy. But saying it out loud only makes you sound like a know-it-all.

It’s the same with phrases like “You couldn’t figure it out? It’s just common sense!” It’s common sense to not say phrases like this.

9. “You just don’t get it.”

Some people use this phrase when they’ve outlined an idea or plan, but their colleague says that it won’t work or that it isn’t great.

Studies show that narcissists rarely admit that their ideas might not be the right thing to do, and this kind of statement could make people suspect you are one.

10. “If I were you, I’d ….”

This is another “I know best” phrase, which can make you come off as arrogant instead of helpful. If you want to give advice, rephrase it to be supportive — rather than judgmental — by asking questions like, “Have you tried …?” or “What about …?

Communication patterns that turn people off

These aren’t phrases, but they are common communication mistakes we’ve seen that can make you look like a conversational narcissist:

Constantly interrupting

It’s rude to cut people off while they’re speaking. Maybe you’re eager to prove you know what they’re talking about; perhaps you think your input is needed and you can’t wait. Well, wait. It’s that simple.

Talking too much in general

Dominating a conversation by talking (and talking and talking) doesn’t make you look like an expert. It makes you look like you’re overly fond of your own voice, views and ideas.

Making everything about you

A colleague mentions that they are feeling burned out, and you immediately start talking about how burned out you feel lately.

Remember: It’s not always about you. Even if you think your empathy or input will win you points, you’re actually undermining yourself.

Kathy and Ross Petras are the brother-and-sister co-authors of the NYT bestseller ”You’re Saying it Wrong,” as well as ”Awkword Moments″ and That Doesn’t Mean What You Think It Means. They co-host NPR’s award-winning podcast ”You’re Saying It Wrong.” Their newest book, ”A History of the World Through Body Parts,” is a quirky history of things you didn’t learn through textbooks. Follow them on Twitter @kandrpetras.

Topley’s Top 10 – November 21, 2022

1. YTD Performance…Dow Jones Only Down -5.4%

LPL Research

2. Energy Stocks-History of Sectors with 2 Years Outperformance.

Energy stocks -Mark Hulbert Marketwatch


Research shows that when a sector’s trailing two-year return soundly beats the U.S. market average, that sector takes a beating over the next two years

Oil and gas stocks are likely in a market bubble that’s vulnerable to popping.

That’s the conclusion when applying a formula from recent academic research into the predictability of stock market bubbles and subsequent crashes.

The research, which appeared in the Journal of Financial Economics, was conducted by Robin Greenwood and Andrei Shleifer of Harvard University, and Yang You of the University of Hong Kong.

The researchers found that the probability of a market sector crashing — defined as a drop of at least 40% over the subsequent two years — was correlated with its trailing two-year performance relative to the overall market.

The chart above provides the specifics, based on U.S. data back to 1926. Whenever an industry or sector outperformed the broad market by at least 100 basis points (1 percentage point) over a two-year period, there was a 53% chance it would drop by at least 40% over the subsequent two years. When the trailing two-year outperformance was at least 150 basis points (1.5%), those odds grew to 80%.

These findings are why the energy sector is so vulnerable. The Energy Select Sector SPDR XLE, -0.79%, for example, has beaten the S&P 500 SPX, +0.48%over the past two years by 153 percentage points. Assuming the future is like the past, the odds of the energy sector falling by 40% or more in the next two years are 80%.

On several prior occasions, I’ve applied this academic research to various assets, and it’s worked every time. Here’s a brief rundown:

3. High-Yield Party Returns to Emerging Markets Too Cheap to Ignore

Netty Ismail (Bloomberg) — Yield hunting is back in emerging markets with a force not seen for 17 years.

Most Read from Bloomberg

Investors are buying the bonds of some of the world’s poorest nations so fast that the risk premium on them is falling at the quickest pace since June 2005 relative to their investment-grade peers, JPMorgan Chase & Co. data show. And countries that were tottering on the brink of default just months ago — such as Pakistan, Ghana and Ukraine — are leading this high-yield rally.

Before this month, the most brutal selloff since the 2008 financial crisis already had emerging-market money managers talking about how cheap high-yield bonds were and how their underperformance against higher-rated debt was an unsustainable distortion. But the bonds continued to be shunned because of a surge in US yields driven by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary tightening. It’s only now, with the prospect for a slower pace of interest-rate hikes, that investors are returning.

“Cheaper high-yield emerging-market bonds do look more attractive relative to investment grade,” said Ben Luk, a senior multi-asset strategist at State Street Global Markets. The recent rebound in commodity prices, especially oil, could also “generate greater cash flow and lower the chance of any sovereign default in the near term.”

4. Chinese Housing Surplus 30m Units

China: The housing surplus is massive.

Source: @business Read full article

The Daily Shot Blog

5. Recession? October Retail Sales Strongest in 8 Months

JP Morgan Private Bank

6. LFP Batteries Could Make EV’s More Affordable for the Masses


Sep 30, 2022 by Katherine de Guia, Communications Specialist – New Power

The lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery is breaking barriers in the electric vehicle (EV) market. It is poised to redefine battery manufacturing and EV sales in North America and Europe. It’s powerful, lightweight, and fast charging…but the LFP is actually nothing new.

1. An LFP is a lithium-ion battery.

The resurgence of the LFP battery and its role in the future of e-mobility leads many to beg the question: Which battery chemistry is best for electric vehicles, lithium iron phosphate or lithium-ion?

Because lithium-ion (Li-Ion) batteries are a rechargeable battery type that most people are likely familiar with, it seems like the logical selection. They’re used in many everyday items, like mobile phones, laptops and electric vehicles driving on the road today. But when discussing the pros and cons of each EV battery, it isn’t a contest between LFP and Li-Ion batteries.

The Li-Ion battery family contains different battery chemistries named after their cathode; LFP is part of that family. And while an LFP is a Li-Ion battery, not all Li-Ions are LFPs. Other lithium-ion batteries include the nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) battery and the lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxides (NCA) battery. Both are already utilized heavily in electric vehicles.

2. The “F” in LFP stands for iron.

Batteries are typically named after the chemicals used in the cathode, and an LFP battery uses a cathode material made from the inorganic compound lithium iron phosphate, with the formula LiFePO4. The “F” comes from “Fe,” the periodic table of elements chemical symbol for iron. Fe is derived from the Latin word for iron, ferrum. You may also see an LFP referred to as a lithium ferro phosphate battery.

3. LFPs can be charged to 100%.

Keeping an electric vehicle battery healthy is necessary if your EV wants to live a long, happy life. If your EV has an NMC or NCA battery, one of the easiest ways to do so is NOT charging the battery to 100% every today. This prevents accelerated calendar aging, the natural aging of a battery that will occur whether it is in use or not. Charging an NMC or NCA to 100% puts the batteries in an extreme state of charge. Because batteries turn chemical energy into electricity, a battery is inherently unstable when fully charged. Overall, it is considered best practice to avoid a very high and meager charge, with 80% being the standard battery capacity for an optimal lifetime.

However, LFP batteries are an exception to this charging standard. LFPs have 100% of their capacity available, meaning they can be fully charged without causing accelerated battery degradation. This is thanks to the battery’s cathode.

The phosphorus-oxygen bond in the LFP cathode is stronger than the metal-oxygen bond in other cathode materials. This bond hinders the release of oxygen and requires more energy and a higher on-set temperature for thermal runaway. This makes the battery more stable for being stored at full charge.

4. LFPs are a lower-cost option.

Electric vehicles are popular, and the demand for more companies to switch from internal combustion engines to batteries continues to increase. However, even as demand rises, building an EV still costs more than traditional diesel engines due to battery manufacturing.
Manufacturing NMC and NCA batteries require nickel and cobalt, two materials that come at a pretty penny to extract. The cost of buying both materials is expensive already. Still, the increasing nickel shortage and cobalt production being stretched to its limits pose a challenge to manufacturing NMC and NCA batteries and making them affordable for integration into EVs.

LFP batteries, on the other hand, currently bypass supply chain issues and inflated prices because nickel and cobalt aren’t needed for the cathode. An LFP’s cathode is made from earth-abundant materials. Lithium iron phosphate is a crystalline compound that belongs to the olivine mineral family. Because the olivine family is a primary component of the Earth’s upper mantle, LFP is more readily available for extraction at a lower cost.

5. 17% of the global EV market is powered by LFPs.

Lithium iron phosphate batteries first came to light in 1996, so it’s not surprising this battery chemistry is already present in the electric vehicle market. Discovered by John Bannister Goodenough’s research group at the University of Texas, LFP batteries gained recognition for their wide range of benefits. Even with advantageous characteristics, LFPs didn’t experience their first large-scale adoption until 10 years later, when they became the industry favorite for electronics.

LFP technology has improved over the years, and it can now be found in a broader range of applications, from motorcycles and solar devices to electric cars. Seventeen percent of the global EV market is already powered by LFPs, but this battery chemistry is poised to make its next big breakthrough with large-scale adoption in different on-highway applications like electric buses and electric trucks. LFPs are less energy dense, come with lower manufacturing costs and are easier to produce than other Li-Ion and lead-acid battery types.

The warnings of a lithium supply shortage threaten to cut the global EV sales forecast in 2030, but even that hasn’t appeared to slow the momentum of adopting LFP batteries into electric vehicles. LFP battery chemistry remains easier to produce and at a lower cost. Their efficient charging, lower cost of ownership, non-toxicity, long cycle life and excellent safety characteristics make them a crowd favorite for the future of electric transportation.

7. This Doesn’t Read Well for the West and NATO

8. Existing Homes Sales Approaching Covid Lows

Wolf Street

9. Masayoshi Son owes SoftBank $4.7bn as side deals go sour

Portfolio losses ratcheted up Japanese billionaire’s deficit to about $2.8bn from his Vision Fund 2 interest alone

Investors have raised concerns that Masayoshi Son’s mix of personal and company interests are a corporate governance risk. Reuters


Masayoshi Son is now personally on the hook for about $4.7 billion on side deals he set up at SoftBank Group to boost his compensation, after mounting losses in the company’s tech portfolio wiped out the value of his interest in the second Vision Fund.

Over the years, the Japanese billionaire’s controversial personal stakes in SoftBank’s investments drew fire from investors, who pointed to the mix of personal and company interests as a corporate governance concern.

Mr Son, who owns a more than 30 per cent stake in SoftBank, has denied there was a conflict of interest and said it was remuneration for his investment expertise, in lieu of investment fees.

The move has backfired, enveloping Mr Son’s personal finances in the downside of the world’s biggest tech investor’s bets. He was down more than $4 billion on his side deals through to the June quarter, Bloomberg reported earlier.

Mr Son last week said he was stepping away from leading earnings calls, to focus on preparing chip designer Arm for a public listing — an event that would give SoftBank fuel to again pursue new investments. SoftBank will bide its time in a tech winter and pay down its debt, he and his lieutenants said.

SoftBank’s Vision Fund arm posted a $7.2 billion quarterly loss last week, driven by the declining value of portfolio companies such as SenseTime, DoorDash and GoTo. The company has been selling assets to raise cash and shore up its balance sheet, posting gains from selling a chunk of its stake in Alibaba.

“We need to go full-on defence,” SoftBank chief financial officer Yoshimitsu Goto said. “SoftBank is pessimistic on the outlook. We do not yet see the light.”

The 65-year-old Mr Son holds 17.25 per cent of a vehicle set up under SoftBank’s Vision Fund 2 for its unlisted holdings, as well as 17.25 per cent of a unit within its Latin America fund, which also invests in start-ups. He has a 33 per cent stake in SB Northstar, a vehicle set up at the company to trade stocks and derivatives.

Portfolio losses ratcheted up Mr Son’s deficit to about $2.8 billion from his Vision Fund 2 interest, and $252 million at the Latam fund, according to disclosures for the September quarter. His remaining deficit at SB Northstar was 233.6 billion yen ($1.6 billion).

The amount Mr Son owes SoftBank from his interests in Vision Fund 2 and the Latam fund rose about $750 million in the last quarter.

Mr Son’s interests in Vision Fund 2 and the Latam fund were structured so the billionaire didn’t pay cash up front for his 17.25 per cent stakes. He is obligated to pay 3 per cent on the “unpaid equity acquisition amount” until repayment, interest that has been wrapped into his liabilities.

There is no deadline for repayment and the value of Mr Son’s positions could improve in the future, and for SB Northstar, Mr Son has already deposited some cash and other assets. The founder would pay his share of any “unfunded repayment obligations” at the end of the fund’s life, which runs for 12 years with a two-year extension.

Mr Son has deposited 8.9 million of his own shares as collateral for Vision Fund 2, and another 2.2 million shares as collateral for the Latam fund, the company said in its disclosures. The stock will be released only once the receivables are settled.

Mr Son’s net worth stood at $12.7 billion after Thursday’s close of trading, after adjusting for his deficit from his interests in Vision Fund 2 and Latam fund, according to Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

10. Harvard Study Reveals the 1 Thing That Makes Humans Happy. Why Are You Doing the Complete Opposite?

Is modern life making you miserable (and alone)? Science says so.



Money can’t buy happiness. 

Well, that’s not entirely true. Having some money helps. But it’s certainly not the biggest contributor to our happiness and well-being. So what is? 

Before the big reveal, there are two things to consider. 

First, for some of us, we were dealt a good genetic hand. We are predisposed to being happier in life. Our temperamental “wiring” makes us less neurotic, more emotionally stable, and nicer people to be around.

Second, for some of us, we ended up in the right place at the right time (or the wrong place at the wrong time). German philosopher Martin Heidegger calls this “thrownness“, or Geworfen. This is the idea that our experience in life, from birth to death, is arbitrarily determined by where we’re thrown into the world. Born into a specific family in a particular culture or religion at a given moment in human history is a matter of pure dumb luck.

These two things, genetics and Geworfen, are outside our control. And they matter. But what matters just as much, perhaps more, is something that’s within our control: relationships. And even for those of us with less-than-ideal genes, thrown into a less than ideal environment, human connection is the trump card. So why are we forgetting to play it?

No man or woman is an island 

The Harvard Study of Adult Development, the longest-running study on happiness, has followed 724 men since they were teenagers in 1938, with participants coming from a range of socioeconomic backgrounds. The Harvard team has collected a wealth of data over the 74 years, collating all kinds of personal, psychological, and health indicators and outcomes, and asking their families about their mental and emotional health every two years.

“Personal connection creates mental and emotional stimulation,” says project director, Dr. Robert Waldinger, “and those things are automatic mood boosters, while isolation is a mood buster.”

Humans are an intensely social species. It’s literally a matter of life and death. In our ancestral past, if we suddenly became isolated and pushed out by the tribe, it would have meant our inevitable death. So, the behaviors responsible for ensuring social connection — and therefore success in life — would have had a strong selective pressure. They still do.

The genes of modern Homo sapiens still drive our social behaviors in service of connecting, building, and relating to our fellow humans.

Unfortunately, we’re not living that reality.

Modernity is getting in the way of our genes

Technology, and modern life more generally, “gets written down as the progress of man”, to quote my favorite folk singer, John Prine. But consider the unintended consequence of this futuristic world we live in: We are spending more time alone than we have in all of human history. And it’s making us terribly unhappy.

I hope the irony isn’t lost on you. We carry near infinite knowledge on a machine that fits in our front pocket, we fly into space, we enter into alternative realities … but we do all this with an increasing frown and furrowed brow. We’ve never been more advanced. We’ve never been more miserable.

Then (together) versus now (alone)

It’s estimated that early humans in hunter-gather societies would have spent the majority of their time with one another. They would have done basically everything together at every waking point — working, preparing food, eating. Even leisure time and moments of ritual celebration would have been a group experience.

Contrast this with modern humans. Nearly a third of people in so-called developed Western countries live alone. These people are truly alone for about 8-10 hours of the day, every day. For people who live with others, it’s about 5-7 hours every day. Take a look at this graph. As people get older, they spend nearly half their waking time alone.

Imagine for a second we could simulate the same graph but include in it the data from the remaining time period humans have existed. It would look drastically different. Apples and oranges.

We need to look to the future and be intentional about the societies and cultures we want to build. We need to facilitate the natural urge to connect, belong, and socialize. Our technologies, city infrastructures, governmental and corporate organizations, and the way we do business should always take into account the fact that we humans can survive only by connecting with each other. Our “metrics for success” should capture that. Otherwise, we’ll end up with an incredibly advanced society — with little happiness and humanity left.,%202022&leadId=1548979&mkt_tok=NjEwLUxFRS04NzIAAAGINTAqEth4SU5OugACyrJVllFRwESTXVP1NTCeWZv1Ylcce-8mgLYAPabuh8nD_b1HO83IGo0OtoGJUpuIOggk0dbwEgusPIWwEMWKBAU

Topley’s Top 10 – November 18, 2022

1. Federal Tax Revenue was 19.6% of GDP Last Fiscal Year…Highest on Record

It’s important for investors to recognize that even if the Democrats end up with narrow control of the House, they are unlikely to raise taxes in the next couple of years.  Federal tax revenue was 19.6% of GDP in the fiscal year that ended September 30.  That’s the highest on record with the exceptions of the peak of the first internet boom in 2000 and World War II.

Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Firsttrust  Microsoft Word – w111422 – Democrats Overperform (–of-gdp

2. Bitcoin Breaks Off from Tech Stocks.

Crypto and Tech Stocks stopped moving together on FTX news….This chart is BITO (bitcoin etf) compared to QQQ…straight down

One Month Performance….QQQ +11% vs. Bitcoin -15%

3. Ten Year Treasury Yield Closes Below 50Day Moving Average

Short Treasury Bond ETF is TBF….It Never Broke Above RED Long-Term Downtrend Line Dating Back to 2008 GFC

4. Extreme Inversion of Yield Curve Tends to Coincide with Peak Fed Funds Rate

Percy Allison Jefferies LLC The yield curve is extremely inverted (2 year minus 10 year yield is -65bps) implying, based on historical precedent, that the odds of a 2023 recession are high (corroborated by ISM New Orders & Prices Paid/Inventories). A deeply inverted yield curve also tends to coincide with a peak in the Fed Funds Rate. We assume a 50bp hike in December in the chart below.

Source: Jefferies Trading Desk

Percy Allison Jefferies LLC

5. Vanguard Total International Stock ETF Rallies Right Back to 200 Day

Vanguard International hits resistance at 200day….interesting 50day never closed below 200day on downside

6. Most Crowded Trades….Long Dollar by Far the Largest

7. The U.S. Needs Battery Plants….8 of 10 Largest Battery Plants in China

WSJ By Stephen Wilmot

Koch Teams With Startup to Build Giant Battery Factory in Georgia – WSJ

8. American Credit Card Balances Reversed Quickly from Covid Lows

American household debt has hit a new high, with the collective tab rising $351bn in the latest quarter, taking the total owed by households to more than $16.5 trillion. There’s not many comparisons to give that number context, but its roughly 5x the size of the UK economy, or just shy of 7x what Apple is worth.

Credit or debit?Though mortgages are still by far the biggest source of debt, the collective credit card balance was the category that grew fastest on a relative basis. All told, household credit card debt grew 15% year-on-year, the largest annual jump for more than 20 years. A group of Federal Reserve researchers, hardly known for their sensationalist exaggeration, said that the increase “towers over the last 18 years of data”.
With over 500 million accounts open in the US, credit cards are a staple of consumer spending — more than 190 million Americans have at least one account, and 13% reported having five or more cards.

The concern for the economy is that consumers will find themselves owing more, at a higher interest rate, and may struggle to make payments. The good news is that, per The New York Fed, delinquency rates so far have only risen very modestly — and in a historical context remain low — suggesting that people are making payments on time.

9. Interesting International Home Ownership Data

Jim Reid Deutsche Bank Adrian Cox and Galina Pozdnyakova in my team have just produced a report on global housing as part of my team’s 101 series aimed at simplifying big important topics for generalists. Today’s CoTD shows the proportion of homes by ownership status for a selection of countries. There are some interesting extremes in the data. Italy has a very low ownership by mortgage with only 10.8% owned with a mortgage and 60.8% of housing stock owned outright without one. This hints at a more traditional multi-generational family ownership structure. Spain is not too dissimilar. English speaking and Nordic countries are much more likely to have mortgages as the highest form of home ownership. Germany and Switzerland have the highest amount of renters in the sample.

The report shows that the hottest markets in recent years are in countries with the highest household debt ratios to GDP hinting at leverage fuelled gains. It also shows the maturity split of mortgages issued in recent times. For example virtually all Finnish and Norwegian mortgages issued in the last year or so have been variable with a fixed rate of no more than 12 months but virtually all new US mortgages have been long-term fixed.

Every market is different so it’s impossible to put a one-size fits all valuation framework on global housing but this report will hopefully give you some basic facts to understand the major differences. The table on p.19 puts it all together and shows which markets might be most at risk going forward. See here for the full report.

10. 5 Reasons Fear Can Make You Better

By Patti Johnson | August 27, 2013 |   The fear of not being good enough, smart enough or successful enough can be debilitating. In my last blog, I talked about why it’s so helpful to know your “go-to” fears so you can learn to anticipate and manage them.

In certain situations, fear can also be expected. It is, for example, a normal part of starting any change. In fact, I have been studying people who made the decision to start a change. Many of them had some fears, but those fears didn’t stop them from acting. One new business owner told me that she was afraid at times, but she wanted to reach her goal so badly that she just accepted the fear and kept going. We often think of fear in a negative way, but fear can be a very positive force, one to signal that you are changing and growing. It can:

  1. Be a sign that you are doing something that’s important to you
  2. Indicate that you are learning something very new
  3. Confirm that you are outside of your comfort zone
  4. Give you creative energy and ideas
  5. Cause you to act on something that you know is important

Ask anyone who has begun major changes in their work or life, and there is always some fear and discomfort. That is part of it. When I started my business, my fear of failure was absolutely a motivator and I did my best to use it to my benefit—at least most days. The reality is that if it were easy, you would have already done it. Progress is more likely to happen once you begin managing and using your fear to your advantage.

There is also a different kind of fear—the fear of being successful. Recently, a friend said to me, “I’ve realized that I’m not afraid of failure. I’m afraid of success.” We begin to wonder, what if the new business takes off? What if I get the new job? What if I get the book contract? Can I do it? Our own self-doubt can trip us up not only in our ability to get there, but in wondering what happens if we do.

I am reminded of one of my favorite quotes of all time from Marianne Williamson: “Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light, not our darkness, that most frightens us. We ask ourselves, ‘Who am I to be brilliant, gorgeous, talented, fabulous?’ Actually, who are you not to be?” Even fear of success can get in our way.

Accept that the fear factor is a natural part of starting down a new path. Know and accept your “go-to” fears so you are ready for them when they appear. Find the positives of fear and don’t aim to go around or avoid it. If you accept and embrace some of your fear, it can work for you—and it just might be a sign that you are ready to start a change that has been waiting for you.

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This article was published in August 2013 and has been updated. Photo by Dragon Images/Shutterstock

Topley’s Top 10 – November 17, 2022

1. No Fund Outflows at All

Callum Thomas Chart Storm Flow With the Go:  Fund flows show outflow no-show.


2. History of S&P Below 200 Day Moving Average LPL Research

3. Schwab Traders Favorite Longs

Still, traders “have their eyes open on a few different sectors and categories” that they feel are poised to do well, Metzger said, noting that they are bullish on value stocks and fixed income, as well as energy, healthcare, utilities and consumer-staples sectors.

By  Christine Idzelis\

4. Sentiment Indicator Hit Extreme Levels

Liz Ann Sonders Schwab Better Breadth Unlike the summer rally, the rip higher in stocks late last week came in response to inflation data that was actually better than expected. It was also aided by the drop in bond yields and the continued retreat in the U.S. dollar. In addition, there are now 56% of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages vs. 51% at the mid-August high—at which point the index was 330 points higher than it was as of Friday’s close. We continue to believe the average stock will do well relative to the largest cap stocks (i.e., equal weight will continue to outperform cap weight).

The rally was also aided by quite dour investor sentiment conditions leading into last week. We have been pointing out the better (contrarian) environment for stocks—at least as it related to attitudinal measures of sentiment. Last week’s “crypto carnage” (more on that below) was a likely trigger for behavioral sentiment measures finally falling into line with attitudinal measures.

SentimenTrader’s Panic/Euphoria Model, which is a blend of attitudinal and behavioral sentiment indicators, recently inflected higher from a historically low reading, as shown below. As the accompanying table highlights, although equity market performance was mixed historically in the near-term after similar inflections; it was universally strong a year later.

A little less panic

5. Tech Rallying the Last 2 Weeks but Vanguard Energy ETF Hit New Highs

Energy Still Leading Sector

6. Cintas Corporation Would Seem to be Very Tied to Economic Cycle…..It is not Acting Like Recession 2023.

Cintas about to make new highs……One of the best S&P stocks for last 25 years.

7. Taiwan Semi Big Move Higher but Still not Even Back to Early Sept Highs

8. More on LA Ports…Quietest Month Since 2009

Zerohedge LA Port Head Says October Was ‘Quietest’ Month Since 2009

BY TYLER DURDEN About a year ago, there was a massive queue outside two of America’s biggest ports, located on the West Coast. Now, the ports are coming to a crawl during the peaking shipping season, ahead of the busiest shopping period of the year.

There’s no longer a massive amount of container ships outside the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, California, which handle 40% of all cargo containers entering the country.

According to Gene Seroka, head of the Port of Los Angeles, the backlog has all but dissipated. In an online briefing, he said the Port of LA had the quietest October since 2009. 

Together, LA and Long Beach are the main seaport gateway into the US economy from China. The quietest October since the GFC is sign retailers and manufacturers have slowed or stopped ordering from overseas due to either high inventories or collapsing demand.

Seroka’s comment Tuesday is another piece to the puzzle of an emerging global slowdown:

We predict in May that an inventory glut, i.e., the reverse bullwhip effect, would cool the booming freight market. It’s peak shipping season — retailers have already canceled overseas orders as freight companies reduce shipping capacity ahead of Black Friday and Christmas.

Companies across the board are bloated with inventories. This can be shown in the inventory-to-sales ratio, reaching multi-decade highs — forcing importers to reduce shipments from overseas suppliers.

LA Port Head Says October Was ‘Quietest’ Month Since 2009 | ZeroHedge

9. The “Smartest” Funds in World Suffer FOMO ….Big Private Equity and Pensions Buying FTX at Top

From Irrelevant Investor Blog Michael Batnick

10. The Collapse of British Empire

Scott Galloway–As they gained territory and resources, each empire continued to expand. Brits in 1910 had witnessed six decades of growth. With each land grab came greater stores of resources, more coffee and molasses to import to their island. This created new markets and business opportunities to fund more land grabs. And the wheel turned.

However, from the British Empire to the Qing Dynasty to the Ottomans, they all have one thing in common: They all fall.

Topley’s Top 10 – November 16, 2022

1.ETF Traders Bet Big Against Tech Rally

Dave Lutz Jones Trading PAIN TRADE– ETF traders just placed a record wager against the big comeback in tech stocks – As the Nasdaq 100 Index soared late last week, some $658 million was funneled into the ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ exchange-traded fund (SQQQ). That’s the largest-ever inflow for a product that aims to deliver three times the opposite performance of the US benchmark for major technology companies.

2. One Inflation Figure Not Coming Down Yet….Residential Energy Prices

3. Year Over Year CPI International Markets.

Cresset-Jack Ablin

How to Prepare for Endemic Inflation | Cresset Capital

4. Emerging Markets Rally Off Falling Dollar….

EEM ETF approaching resistance levels from Summer

This chart shows emerging markets vs. the U.S. dollar…straight down since end of 2020

5. Crypto Bank Silvergate Capital….$220 to $35

6. Broker Dealer ETF Jumps 25% on Mystery Whale Investment ….$211M Mystery Bet on Monday

Bloomberg Wall Street ETF Gets $211 Million Mystery Inflow, Most Since 2008

-IAI sees its second-biggest inflow in off-exchange transaction

-ETF focused on broker-dealers, exchanges is up 25% since June

BySam Potter

7. S&P Rallies Back to 200Day

8. How Australia became the world’s greatest lithium supplier

By Royce Kurmelovs10th November 2022

As demand soars for electric vehicles and clean energy storage, Australia is rising to meet much of the world’s demand for lithium. While this helps reduce the need for fossil fuels, it raises another question – how can we source lithium sustainably?

Roughly a three-hour drive south of Perth, Western Australia, off the South Western Highway and behind the historic mining town of Greenbushes, the land beyond the town’s primary school falls away to reveal a deep, grey scar.

This is the site of an old tin mine known as the Cornwall Pit. At roughly 265m (870ft) deep, the terraced wall of the pit represents a century’s worth of work that began in 1888 when a pound of tin was lifted out of a nearby creek. When the surface-metal was scoured from the landscape, methods changed eventually giving way to open-cut mining in the host pegmatite vein – an igneous rock with a coarse texture similar to granite.

In 1980, another metal was found at Greenbushes which, at the time, didn’t give the mine owners much pause for thought. Lithium, a soft, silvery-white reactive alkali metal, was considered more of a geological oddity.

A small-scale mining operation began in 1983, extracting lithium for use in niche industrial operations like glass making, steel, castings, ceramics, lubricants and metal alloys. It wasn’t until decades later when the existential risk posed by climate change became widely understood, and governments began talking about replacing the estimated 1.45 billion petrol cars worldwide with electric vehicles, that the reserves at Greenbushes began to be seen in a very different light.

Today the Cornwall tin pit is closed for business, and Greenbushes has become the largest lithium mine in the world.

Demand for lithium could grow to more than 40 times current levels if the world is to meet its Paris Agreement goals

In less than two years, prices for Australian spodumene – a lithium-rich raw material that can be refined for use in laptop, phone and EV batteries – has grown more than tenfold. According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, spodumene sold for $4,994 (£4,300) a tonne in October 2022, up from $415 (£360) in January 2021. By 2040 the International Energy Agency expects demand for lithium to grow more than 40 times current levels if the world is to meet its Paris Agreement goals.

This has sparked claims of a new lithium-rush and Australia has positioned itself to be the world’s go-to supplier. Which begs the question, as the world reaches for this metal in an attempt to help with decarbonisation – how sustainable is lithium mining?

=In 2021, the lithium mined at Greenbushes alone accounted for more than a fifth of global production – and it is expected to grow. In 2019 the mine’s owners Talison Lithium received permission to double the site’s size in an A$1.9bn ($1.2bn/£1.1bn) expansion that, when complete, will cover an area 2.6km (1.6 miles) long, 1km (0.6 miles) wide and 455m (1,490ft) deep. At 310m (1,020ft) high, the tallest building in London, The Shard, could be comfortably buried inside.

While Greenbushes is Australia’s largest lithium mine, contributing 40% of the 55,000 tonnes of lithium mined in the country in 2021, there are several others close behind. In total, there are four other hard-rock lithium operations in Western Australia’s legacy mining regions around Kalgoorlie in the east and the Pilbara in the state’s far north. A sixth – the only lithium mine outside Western Australia – is an open-cut mine near Darwin in the Northern Territory, which began operation in early October 2022. Two other mines are in planning with other proposals at various stages of development.

9. Ukraine Invasion Updated Map.

Russia only taking poor and working class as soldiers

The Daily Shot Blog Food for Thought: Lastly, here’s a look at where are Russia’s newest soldiers coming from. 

Source: The Economist Read full article

10. A brain expert shares his 7 ‘hard rules’ for boosting memory and fighting off dementia

Marc Milstein, Contributor@DRMARCMILSTEIN

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caracterdesign | Getty

The average human brain shrinks by approximately 5% per decade after the age of 40. This can have a major impact on memory and focus.

What’s more, brain disorders are on the rise. In 2020, 54 million people worldwide had Alzheimer’s disease or other dementias, and that number is expected to grow.

But serious mental decline doesn’t have to be an inevitable part of aging. In fact, certain lifestyle factors have a greater impact than your genes do on whether you’ll develop memory-related diseases.

As a neuroscience researcher, here are seven hard rules I live by to keep my brain sharp and fight off dementia.

1. Keep blood pressure and cholesterol levels in check

Your heart beats roughly 115,000 times a day, and with every beat, it sends about 20% of the oxygen in your body to your brain.

High blood pressure can weaken your heart muscle, and is one of the leading causes of strokes. Ideally, your blood pressure should be no higher than 120/80.

Cholesterol is critical to your brain and nervous system health, too. The American Heart Association recommends getting your cholesterol levels measured every four to six years.

2. Manage sugar levels

Blood sugar is the primary fuel of the brain. Not enough of it, and you have no energy; too much, and you can destroy blood vessels and tissue, leading to premature aging and cardiovascular disease.

Keep in mind that sugar isn’t enemy, excess sugar is. It’s easy for grams of sugar to add up, even if you think you’re being careful — and usually, sugar will sneak in through packaged foods.

Where is the sugar hidden? Look for these in the ingredients list:

·    Dextrose

·    Fructose

·    Galactose

·    Glucose

·    Lactose

·    Maltose

·    Sucrose

And be wary of any product that includes syrup, such as agave nectar syrup or high-fructose corn syrup.

3. Get quality sleep

Studies show that people with untreated sleep apnea raise their risk of memory loss by an average of 10 years before the general population.

For most people, a healthy brain needs somewhere between seven and nine hours of sleep a night.

My tips for memory-boosting, immune-enhancing sleep:

·    Keep a consistent bedtime and wake-up schedule.

·    Turn off devices one hour before bedtime.

·    Do something relaxing before bedtime, like listening to soft music or doing mindful breathing exercises.

·    Go outside and get in natural sunlight as soon as you can after waking up.

4. Eat a nutritious diet

One way I keep things simple is to have most, if not all, of these items in my grocery cart:

·    Fatty fish like salmon

·    Avocados

·    Nuts

·    Blueberries

·    Cruciferous veggies like arugula, broccoli, Brussels sprouts and collard greens

When food shopping, I ask myself three questions to help determine whether something is good for my brain:

1. Will it spoil? In many cases, perishable is a good thing. The additives and preservatives that keep food from spoiling wreak havoc on your gut bacteria.

2. Are there tons of ingredients in that packaged food? And for that matter, can you pronounce the ingredients? Or does it look like the makings of a chemical experiment? Also avoid anything where sugar is one of the first few ingredients.

3. Do you see a rainbow on your plate? The chemicals that give fruits and vegetables their vibrant colors help boost brain health.

5. Don’t smoke (and avoid secondhand and thirdhand smoke)

Smokers have a 30% higher risk of developing dementia than non-smokers. They also put those around them at risk: Secondhand smoke contains 7,000 chemicals — and at least 70 of them can cause cancer.

Then there’s thirdhand smoke, which is not actually smoke. It’s the residue of cigarette smoke that creates the telltale smell on clothing or in a room. That residue alone can emit chemicals that are toxic to the brain.

6. Make social connections

In a recent study, people over the age of 55 who regularly participated in dinner parties or other social events had a lower risk of losing their memory. But it wasn’t because of what they ate, it was the effect of the repeated social connection.

To lessen isolation and loneliness, you can also boost brain chemicals like serotonin and endorphins by performing small acts of kindness:

·    Wish others well or check in with somebody.

·    Give a compliment without expecting anything in return.

·    Make a phone call to somebody you don’t usually reach out to.

7. Continuously learn new skills

Maintaining a strong memory is not all about brain games like Sudoku, Wordle and crossword puzzles.

Learning skills and acquiring information are much more effective ways to make new connections in the brain. The more connections you make, the more likely you are to retain and even enhance your memory.

When you think about learning something new, approach it the way you would with fitness training. You want to work out different muscles on different days. The same goes for the brain.

Over the course of this week, try cross-training your brain by mixing mental activities (learning a new language or reading a book) and physical learning activities (playing tennis or soccer) .

Marc Milstein, PhD, is a brain health expert and author of “The Age-Proof Brain: New Strategies to Improve Memory, Protect Immunity, and Fight Off Dementia.” He earned both his PhD in Biological Chemistry and his Bachelor of Science in Molecular, Cellular, and Developmental Biology from UCLA, and has conducted research on genetics, cancer biology and neuroscience. Follow him on Twitter and Instagram.

A brain expert shares his 7 ‘hard rules’ for boosting memory and fighting off dementia (