Topley’s Top 10 – August 28, 2020

1. 1995-2016 Hedge Fund Managers Kept 64% of Profits.

Opinion: Hedge fund fees — whether or not you make money — are truly shocking

Mark Hulbert

Hedge funds keep two-thirds of profits; investors get the rest

The professors analyzed a comprehensive hedge fund database containing nearly 6,000 funds over the 22 years from 1995 through 2016. Over that period these hedge funds collectively produced total gross profits of $316.8 billion. Of this total, fund managers kept $202 billion ($88.7 billion in management fees and $113.3 billion in performance incentive fees). The remainder—$113.3 billion, or 35.8% of total gross profits — went to investors. (See the chart below.)

The source of this skewed profit sharing is the asymmetry of hedge funds’ performance incentive fees. While the hedge fund industry receives a portion of investors’ gains, it does not to the same extent share in their losses.

It’s easy to overlook this asymmetry because it becomes evident only when focusing on the industry as a whole. At the individual fund level, incentive fees are only levied on performance that exceeds prior performance — exceeds previous high-water marks, in other words.

To illustrate how this performance incentive fee arrangement looks in practice, imagine the following two otherwise identical scenarios (setting aside management fees):

•        You invest in a single hedge fund that in the first year gains 20%, gives up all that gain in the second year (a loss of 16.67%), and then gains 30% in the third year. You’d pay a performance incentive of 4% in the first year (20% of the 20% gain), nothing in the second year, and only 2% in the third year (2% of the amount by which that year’s gain exceeds that fund’s previous high-water mark). Glossing over several details, your total performance incentive fee for all three years would be 6% of assets under management.

•        In the second scenario, imagine that you instead invest in three separate hedge funds with the same gains: The first gains 20%, the second loses 16.67%, and the third gains 30%. Because the losing hedge fund’s losses can’t be used to offset the other two funds’ gains, you will pay a performance incentive fee of 10% — four percentage points higher.

An extreme example of this occurred in 2008, during the Great Financial Crisis. Cumulatively that year, the professors report, the hedge funds in their database lost $147.1 billion before fees. Yet investors in those funds collectively paid $4.4 billion in performance incentive fees.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/hedge-fund-fees-whether-or-not-you-make-money-are-truly-shocking-2020-08-21

2. Call Options Betting on Higher Market Hit 1999 Levels

Options bets that the stock market will continue to soar have exploded to dot-com bubble levels

Mark DeCambre

Even as the stock market trades in record-setting territory despite the economy being in the throes of a viral pandemic, Wall Street bets for further gains are around their highest levels since the dot-com bubble, according to research from Bespoke Investment Group.

Options bets that the S&P 500 SPX, +0.16% will extend its run-up in months to come have roughly doubled, far exceeding trading in securities that would be used to bet that a decline in stock values was imminent.

Call options give holders the right but not the obligation to buy a certain number of shares (100 per option contract) at a certain price (strike price) by a certain date (expiration date).

Calls are viewed as bullish bets on an asset, as opposed to put options, and Bespoke indicates that appetite for calls, particularly among individual investors, has boomed.

“Retail enthusiasm for the market via commission-free trading apps plus the huge volatility earlier this year have led to a massive boom in options volumes,” the analysts at BIG wrote. “Most of the increase in trading activity in these derivatives has gone to calls,” they wrote (see chart below).

BESPOKE INVESTMENT GROUP

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/options-bets-that-the-stock-market-will-continue-to-soar-have-exploded-to-dot-com-bubble-levels-11598558379?mod=home-page

3. Yield Spreads Vs. Treasury..Energy Sector Highest.

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading

David Rosenberg: Why it’s time to buy energy stocks now that Exxon Mobil has been booted out of the Dow – “It’s a classic contrary signpost for the downtrodden oil and gas equity sector” – as we re-enter a period of ‘ZIRP’ (zero interest rate policy) from the U.S. Federal Reserve — with no intentions of raising rates, or thinking about thinking about raising rates (as Fed chairman Jerome Powell put it) — investors are yet again forced to identify where they can get an income stream. In the period following the Great Financial Crisis, the answer has been in the stock market with the dividend yield exceeding the yield on the 10-year Treasury note on multiple occasions.

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading

4. Never Invest Based On GDP…

One of the Strongest Aug Ever in Stock Market…On Back of Worst Quarterly Global GDP in History

The Worst Quarter in Modern History

We have 2Q GDP from almost every major country around the world now officially in the books. Bank of America Merrill Lynch says it’s “the worst quarter in modern history” and there’s no reason not to agree with that assessment.

Here’s my Chart o’ the Day:

GDP is down a GDP-weighted average of 8.1% yoy, easily the worst quarter in modern history…The US is right in the middle of the pack—down 9.5% yoy—but this is because the US has offset its ineffective COVID containment strategy with massive fiscal and monetary stimulus.

Source:

“Its official: the worst quarter ever”
Bank of America Merrill Lynch – August 18th, 2020

From Josh Brown Blog

https://thereformedbroker.com/2020/08/20/the-worst-quarter-in-modern-history/

5. S&P 500 heads for best August since 1986 as stunning summer rally continues

PUBLISHED FRI, AUG 28 20206:19 AM EDT

Bob Pisani@BOBPISANI  CNBC

A child wearing a face mask sits on the Charging Bull statue, also known as the Wall Street Bull, following the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in New York, August 19, 2020.

A child wearing a face mask sits on the Charging Bull statue, also known as the Wall Street Bull, following the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in New York, August 19, 2020.

Carlo Allegri | Reuters

It’s been a great August, up 6% for the S&P 500, the best August since 1986.

But then again, it was a great July.  And a great June. May was pretty good, too, and April was downright eye-popping.

The Summer Rally (S&P 500 Monthly Returns)

·         April: up 12.7%

·         May: up 4.5%

·         June: up 1.8%

·         July: up 5.5%

·         August (so far): up 6.6%

Five straight up months. What’s going on?

“August is going to come out looking like capital markets are endorsing a US cyclical recovery,” Nicholas Colas from DataTrek told clients in a recent note.

Colas freely admits that August’s outside return has a big asterisk: Apple’s 18% run-up. 

“This meaningfully skews everything from Tech sector returns to Growth/Value performance spreads and even the S&P 500′s August return,” he said, noting that without Apple, the S&P would only be up 4.1% on the month, not 6.8%.

Still, it sure looks like the market is endorsing an economic rebound. The small-cap Russell 2000 is also up about 6% for the month.  High-yield corporate funds are outperforming all other bond market classes. If the trading community was worried about an imminent economic downturn, neither of those two sectors would be leading.

The market has held up on a combination of optimism on a treatment/vaccine, along with massive Fed stimulus.

There’s still optimism on the vaccine front, but now that the Fed has announced its program to keep rates lower for longer and tolerate higher inflation levels ahead of its much-anticipated September 16th meeting, many are arguing the rally based on a Fed “put” (a floor below the market) has gone about as far as it can go.

“The Fed easy money story now priced into the market,” Alec Young, Chief Investment Officer at Tactical Alpha LLC, told me. “It’s buy the rumor, sell the news.”

But even Young admits that may only suffice to pause, but not derail the rally. He also argues the market needs a pause in the relentless digital/work from home story: “It is not healthy to have the index dominated by a few technology stocks,” he said.

None of this means the market will drop, and there are still plenty of bulls who insist the market is going higher.

Jim Paulsen at Leuthold is one of them: he has been bullish and remains bullish, though he freely admits the market could see a 10% correction.

He also freely admits that tech stocks are extended, but insists the fundamentals for tech are rock solid and nothing like 2000.  Extended, he insists, does not mean they are waiting for a crash.

And he strongly disagrees with the popular notion that Wall Street has become disconnected from Main Street.

“It’s not just about the Fed put. People think there is no legitimacy to the rally, and they’re wrong.  Look at retail sales, or the ISM, or housing, or auto sales. Look at the improvement in unemployment claims. They’re all bouncing,” he said.

As for the narrow rally centered on tech, Paulsen believes the broader market is about to play catch-up.

How much? He said he would not be surprised if S&P corporate profits were $200 in 2021.  The current consensus is $165.

Profits 25% higher than consensus for 2021? That would go a long way toward justifying the rally.

“We’ve had a 12% reduction in GDP, an all-time record,” he told me.  “But we may have an 18% improvement in GDP in the next 12 months, and that also would be an all-time high. That is going to bring in the broader market along with it.  You are going to have a major league shift in profitability into those cyclical names. When you thrust all those companies into a depression, and then you force them to get the most efficient they have ever been in their existence, and after all that, you give them a wartime boom?  Profitability is going to be maximized.”

Leuthold has told his clients to stay long: “I am going to own new-era tech, but I am going to own less of it going forward, and I am going to own more of the broader market–cyclicals, international, and small caps.”

Subscribe to CNBC PRO for exclusive insights and analysis, and live business day programming from around the world.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/28/sp-500-heads-for-best-august-since-1986-as-stunning-summer-rally-continues.html

6. Why The Fed Comments Yesterday?

Found at Nasdaq Dorsey Wright www.dorseywright.com

7. Ultraviolet Light Can Kill the Virus—and Help These Stocks Rebound

By  Al Root

Text size

 Barrons

Daniel Slim/AFP via Getty Images

Ultraviolet light is getting its moment in the sun. Companies are adopting the technology to take out the coronavirus and make travel and work safer, and shares of some businesses active in the area are getting a lift.

For starters, Boeing (ticker: BA) announced Monday it is testing UV disinfecting technology inside a 787 jet. The goal is to make aviation “safer and more sustainable,” according to the company’s news release.

“It’s literally a UV wand designed to clean the flight deck,” Kevin Callahan, associate technical fellow at Boeing Commercial Airplanes, explained to Barron’s. On the flight deck, where pilots control the plane, harsh cleaning chemicals aren’t a great idea given the electronics in the area.

Boeing’s wand is designed to clean the cockpit in about 15 minutes. “This [wand] is an industrial strength version of what people see in stores,” Callahan said. Investors—and U.S. consumers—might be familiar with the blue light wands sold at places such as CVS Health (CVS) stores as tools for smartphones or the like.

·         iams-Sonoma Profit Doubled. The Stock Fell Anyway.UV light kills up to 99.9% of seasonal coronaviruses present in airborne droplets, according to a study by Columbia University. (For consumers looking for UV wands, the wavelength of light studied by Columbia is 222 nanometers long. It’s something to look for on UV wand packaging.)

The effectiveness of UV light makes some intuitive sense. UV light gives people sunburn, and in extreme cases, cancer. It can disrupt viruses’ DNA, rendering them effectively dead.

Carrier (CARR) is also expanding its air-quality game. Tuesday, the HVAC—short for heating, ventilation, and air conditioning—company said is selling 1,500 Carrier OptiClean air machines to California schools.

OptiClean are free-standing units that can be plugged into electrical outlets. “The ease-of-use and portability allows them to quickly and efficiently be deployed in a number of spatial configurations as the needs arise,” said Tyler Girtman, a regional manager at the building-solutions company Climatec, said in the Carrier news release.

Climatec worked with the schools buying the units on ways to ensure the health of students and staff as the academic year begins.

Top 5 uses for a UV lamp and ultraviolet light

Top 5 uses for a UV lamp

The ultraviolet light is very useful. It has many applications in the commercial, industrial and healthcare sectors. Ultraviolet light is a kind of electromagnetic radiation. Its wavelength is close to that of X-rays and light.The LED technology is improving and so the UV LED lights are becoming more available in the market. The UV light has higher energy compared to the visible light and so it is more useful. Here we are going to discuss the various uses of UV lamps.

Tanning and skin treatment

UV light is used for tanning. It can be used to imitate the impact of sunlight on the skin. For indoor tanning, use of UV light is very common. In fact, many people prefer indoor tanning to sun tanning. The rays of the sun are not uniform, so it may cause sunburn at times. You also need to be under the sun for a longer period of time to get the tan. The indoor tanning, on the other hand, requires only about 20 minutes. Another disadvantage of sun tanning is that the sun contains both UVA and UVB beams. The UVA beams are responsible for the tanning, but the UVB beams are harmful as it might affect your DNA. The UV lamps used in salons for indoor tanning doesn’t contain any UVB beams. So, it is safer. Ultraviolet light is effective in treating smallpox lesions. UV phototherapy is effective in treating vitiligo and psoriasis. It can also prevent the growth of certain type of skin cancer.

Fluorescent inspection

UV lamps can be used to inspect various materials and surfaces. Materials react in different ways when they are exposed to the UV light. Some substances absorb the UV light’s energy and change it into visible light. It is called fluorescence. For example, the ink of a highlighter pen has fluorescent dye. So, the dye glows in the dark. UV lamps can provide efficient lighting in homes and offices. These lights are used to decorate nightclubs.The UV beams emit a black light. This black light is useful in many ways. It can be used to inspect splits, breaks, and various defects. You can view certain things using the UV light that are not visible to the naked eye. So, it is also used as an analytic tool. This light is used by the detectives and other companies for inspection of documents, forged bank notes, etc.

Disinfection and germ control

The ultraviolet light can inactivate the small creatures in the water. So, it is used for disinfecting drinking water. This process is absolutely chemical free and can effectively destroy bacteria that have a wavelength of 240 to 280 nanometers. The light destroys the bacteria’s capacity to reproduce. So, no more bacteria grows in the water. UV light is widely used in water treatment facilities. This method of treating water is a lot more efficient than boiling water. The UV light can also get rid of chlorine and chloramine from water. Another use of the UV lamp is that it used in killing germs that are found in equipment, utensils, worktops, etc. This technique of germ control is used in the commercial businesses as well. It helps to avoid cross contamination or food poisoning. The UV light can also be used to increase the shelf life of vegetables and fruits.

Air Cleaning and bug eradication

Mold growth inside the house can affect the indoor air quality. If you can install UV air purification unit in your air conditioner duct then the quality of air can be improved. The UV-C light, which is in the 280 to 100 nm range, is used for air purification. This UV light can kill mold, mildew, germs, viruses, and bacteria that float in the air. You can use an air purifier that has the UV-C light technology. In this type of air filter, air passes through a HEPA filter. Then it passes through a small chamber and gets exposed to the UV-C light. Sometimes, the air goes through another filter before getting inside the room. You should use 36-watt bulbs for this purpose. UV lamps are used for killing bugs in the house as well. It is used in the modern bug zappers and has proved to be very effective in killing bugs. The UV-A light, in the range 380 to 315 nm, attracts many bugs and insects like houseflies, wasps, mosquitoes, etc. Unlike the humans, these insects can actually see the ultraviolet light. When the bug zapper is on, the insects get attracted to UV light and go towards the mesh. They become electrocuted once they come into contact with the electric grids and gets vaporized. The bug zapper is a very popular means of killing bugs and insects today.

Indoor Gardening

UV lights are used in the production of polyphenols. It is a very beneficial plant and is said to prevent cancer. It can also make you look young. It can help in raisin production as well. It can also help in the production of medical cannabis. In fact, the UV light helps in improving the medicinal properties of cannabis.

The UV light is found in the sunlight. It has a shorter wavelength than the natural light. Due to research and innovation, the UV lamp can now be used in a number of different ways that are beneficial to people. It can help users in our daily lives. It has many commercial and industrial applications as well. It is used for treating water, purifying air, tanning, treating skin diseases, indoor gardening, eradicating bugs, identifying things, etc. In future, the scientists will be able to come up with more uses of UV lamps.

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https://www.urbancartography.com/top-5-uses-uv-lamp/

8. Three Smart Investments for Today

By John Maxwell | July 30, 2020 | 11 

Photo by Waldemar Brandt on Unsplash

Earlier this week, a name from the past made headlines.

Eastman Kodak saw their stock price surge by 1,200% after it was announced that they would receive a $765 million loan under the Defense Production Act. The loan to Kodak is the first from the new U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, a government agency that’s been assigned the task of rebuilding America’s medical supply stockpile.

As a result of this first step, the company once known for producing the chemicals necessary for developing film will now be known for producing the chemicals necessary for developing needed medical drugs that are in short supply (including drugs for treating Covid-19).

I share this story with you because Kodak has been a go-to story within the business community for years. If you needed an example of a company that missed its window for innovation and growth, Kodak was one of the first to come to mind.

And now, thanks to this new investment, Kodak has a second life.

Kodak isn’t the only investment opportunity worth talking about during this Covid season. It’s going to sound familiar to anyone who’s listened to me over the past few months, but this is a perfect time for you to reassess and reinvest in yourself to ensure your future growth.

Just as Kodak will get new life from their cash infusion, you can get new life by investing in yourself during this time.

If you’re not sure where to start, let me give you three places you should invest:

Your Mind

It should come as no surprise that a lot of people have spent their time settled in front of a screen during this Covid season. TV watching is up, streaming hours are up, and there’s a good chance the screen time monitoring apps on most phones are exhausted from calculating the number of hours people are staring at their pocket screens.

While I’m not opposed to taking a mental break to watch something entertaining every now and then, staring at a screen all day isn’t ideal for your mind.

Last week, I wrote about the tools in your leadership toolbox, and most of the tools I wrote about were tools that build your mind; tools that help you improve and innovate your thinking. Spending time with a good book, a smart podcast, or even an online video course will help you sharpen your mind more than binge-watching “Friends” again ever will.

If you’re going to consume content, focus on content that makes you smarter.

Your Heart

There’s a piece of wisdom from the Bible that says, “Keep vigilant watch over your heart; that’s where life starts.” It’s easy for a heart to be discouraged during times like these; most of the news we see, hear, and read does little to offer us hope for the future. Social media is full of personal attacks and disagreement. And even the closest of families are experiencing struggles after months of being together at home with little outside social contact.

That’s why you need to invest in your heart. Take breaks to spend time alone with your thoughts so you can examine them. If they’re overly negative, you need to change them because negative thinking will turn your heart in a negative direction. I spend time in prayer and reading my Bible as a way of investing in my heart, but you need to find a practice that works for you. Maybe you can start a gratitude journal, or spend time daily repeating your personal values to yourself as a reminder of what you stand for.

Regardless of the practice, make time for feeding your heart because that’s the essence of who you really are.

Your Relationships

I’ve already mentioned the strain that Covid has put on some family dynamics, so it shouldn’t surprise you that the last place you should invest is in your relationships. True, you may not see as many people as you’re accustomed to seeing, but that doesn’t mean you can’t invest in those relationships.

Set aside time to handwrite notes to people you’ve not seen in a while and let them know that you’re thinking about them. Use your phone to send a co-worker a text of encouragement—or better yet, actually call someone and talk to them! Set up a Zoom call with your grandkids or your softball team just to see what they’re up to.

Here’s what I know: while it may take until 2021 for things like work, the economy, and community life to return to a state of normal, relationships can’t wait that long. The people you know and love need your investment today, and it’s well worth your time and energy.

You’ll have to invest in those relationships once things get back to normal anyway; might as well get a jump start on the process so you can move further faster when the opportunity is right.

The past few months have been difficult, and the months ahead may prove to be just as challenging, if not more so. Investing wisely in your mind, heart and relationships will ensure a smoother journey for you and the people you care about.

Your brilliant future begins today—lead the way for others by investing well in the areas that matter most.

https://www.johnmaxwell.com/blog/three-smart-investments-for-today/

Disclosure

Lansing Street Advisors is a registered investment adviser with the State of Pennsylvania..
To the extent that content includes references to securities, those references do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or hold such security as information is provided for educational purposes only. Articles should not be considered investment advice and the information contain within should not be relied upon in assessing whether or not to invest in any securities or asset classes mentioned. Articles have been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Securities discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Please keep in mind that a company’s past financial performance, including the performance of its share price, does not guarantee future results.
Material compiled by Lansing Street Advisors is based on publicly available data at the time of compilation. Lansing Street Advisors makes no warranties or representation of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to the use such data.
Material for market review represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results.
Indices that may be included herein are unmanaged indices and one cannot directly invest in an index. Index returns do not reflect the impact of any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. The index information included herein is for illustrative purposes only.

Topley’s Top 10 – August 27, 2020

1. Recent History of Incoming and Outgoing Dow Constituents

The graph below shows the performance of the Dow index, an equal-weight portfolio of the three stocks coming into the index, and an equal-weight portfolio of the three stocks going out of the index.  For the past three years, the outgoing members shown in black have hugely underperformed the incoming members indicated by the blue line. 

www.dorseywright.com

2-3.  This Bull Market is the Longest But Still Not Strongest…..1990’s Internet Bubble Ending Was Strongest.

Which Bull Will It Be?

Posted by lplresearch

Market Blog

The incredible rally off the March 23 bear market bottom continues, with the S&P 500 Index up more than 50% from those fateful lows. It feels like a lifetime since the longest bull market ever ended. Remember though, although the recent bull market was the longest, it wasn’t the greatest, as the 1990s bull gained more on a percentage basis.

We discussed in detail what the new highs in the S&P 500 meant here, so we won’t dive into that again. But this time we’ll show just how this rally ranks versus others that ended major bear markets. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, this new bull market, up to this point of about five months, is stronger than any other major bull market’s start going back to World War II.

“Yes, this new bull market is the strongest bull market we’ve ever seen after five months,” explained LPL Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But that shouldn’t be a source of worry. The previous two strongest rallies up to this point were in 1982 and 2009, and both saw continued strength during the first year of the new bull market.”

Here is a chart showing just this bull market and the ’82 and ’09 bull markets.

https://lplresearch.com/2020/08/26/which-bull-will-it-be/

4. Corporate Defaults Have Tripled

Capital Group Blog

  • Corporate defaults have jumped, but the default rate has been low for a very long time
  • The market for lower rated companies is much less efficient, so there’s more opportunity to differentiate and find value
  • Especially over the long term, returns on high-yield bonds (BB/Ba and lower) can provide investors who are willing to take a little higher risk of loss a significant income boost

https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/corporate-defaults-triple.html

5. Warren Buffett: The Best Way to Learn About Business

Buffett’s comments from 1998 about business schools

August 21, 2020 | About: BRK.A +0.37% BRK.B +0.35%

Over the years, Warren Buffett (TradesPortfolio) has criticized business schools for the way they teach students. Buffett has disagreed with business schools’ views on the cost of capital and efficient market theory, to name just two points. He’s also attacked the way business schools teach students about business valuation.

Buffett was taught how to value companies by the dean of value investing, Benjamin Graham. Over the years, he’s developed and refined the strategy, building his own views into Graham’s fundamental base.

The Oracle of Omaha has never laid out the exact process he uses to value businesses, and that may be because there isn’t one. He has so much experience evaluating companies, he knows what to look for and what to avoid without consulting a guide.

The best way to learn

Buffett has made some comments in the past about the best way to learn company valuation. Indeed, at the 1998 Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B) annual meeting of investors, he proclaimed that if he were to run a business school, Buffett would get students to study business after business, rather than focusing on other topics. Here’s what he said at the time:

“I were teaching a course on investments, there would be simply one valuation study after another with the students, trying to identify the key variables in that particular business, and evaluating how predictable they were first, because that is the first step.”

The aim of this process, he explained, would be to get students to recognize essential qualities to help them find a handful of successful investments:

“If something is not very predictable, forget it. You know, you don’t have to be right about every company. You have to make a few good decisions in your lifetime. But then when you find the important thing is to know when you find one where you really do know the key variables which ones are important and you do think you’ve got a fix on them. Where we’ve been where we’ve done well, Charlie and I made a dozen or so very big decisions relative to net worth, but not as big as they should have been. And we’ve known we were right on those going in. I mean they just weren’t that complicated. And we knew we were focusing on the right variables and they were dominant. And we knew that even though we couldn’t take it out to five decimal places or anything like that, we knew that in a general way we were right about them. And that’s what we look for. The fat pitch. And that’s what I would be teaching trying to teach students to do. And I would not try to teach them to think they could do the impossible.”

Buffett has issued similar advice many times in his career. Finding good investments isn’t an exact science; it is an art. The only way to get good at this art, like any other creative business, is practice. There’s no short cut to this process; that’s why good investing isn’t easy. It requires years of experience and learning.

Buffett has been studying businesses for decades, so he knows what makes a good company and what does not. He’s built the experience through thousands of hours of investment research and study.

He has a general interest in business as well, which gives him a bit of an advantage as he’s always interested in learning more about companies and sectors. This has to be one of the Oracle’s top advantages compared to the rest of the investment sector.

Buffett is always learning and improving. There’s no short-cut to this process. Investors have to want to do the work to get ahead.

Disclosure: The author owns shares in Berkshire Hathaway.

https://www.gurufocus.com/news/12153

6. Covid Year to Date vs. WW II

Covid-19 Has Now Cost Us Nearly as Much as WWIIBut instead of spending trillions fighting the enemy, we’re making sure the Nasdaq doesn’t decline

https://marker.medium.com/covid-19-has-now-cost-us-nearly-as-much-as-wwii-925bb98c9447

7.  In Shadow of Pandemic, U.S. Drug Overdose Deaths Resurge to Record-NYT

By Josh KatzAbby Goodnough and Margot Sanger-KatzJuly 15, 2020

Drug deaths in America, which fell for the first time in 25 years in 2018, rose to record numbers in 2019 and are continuing to climb, a resurgence that is being complicated and perhaps worsened by the coronavirus pandemic.

Nearly 72,000 Americans died from drug overdoses last year, according to preliminary data released Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — an increase of 5 percent from 2018. Deaths from drug overdoses remain higher than the peak yearly death totals ever recorded for car accidents, guns or AIDS, and their acceleration in recent years has pushed down overall life expectancy in the United States.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/15/upshot/drug-overdose-deaths.html?utm_source=morning_brew

Found at Morning Brew https://www.morningbrew.com/?utm_expid=.ZTQPzZIzTFOdxoi4D0Ey0Q.0&utm_referrer=

8. One In Five Adults Get Their Political Views Primarily Thru Social Media

Chart shows about one-in-five U.S. adults say they get their political news primarily through social media

Chart shows those who depend on social media for political news have lower political knowledge than most other groups

Americans Who Mainly Get Their News on Social Media Are Less Engaged, Less Knowledgeable

Those who rely on social media for news are less likely to get the facts right about the coronavirus and politics and more likely to hear some unproven claims

BY AMY MITCHELLMARK JURKOWITZJ. BAXTER OLIPHANT AND ELISA SHEARER

https://www.journalism.org/2020/07/30/americans-who-mainly-get-their-news-on-social-media-are-less-engaged-less-knowledgeable/

9. 55% OF PROFESSIONALS MISS THE PHYSICAL OFFICE

Aug 21, 2020, 4:50 pm

Do you miss going into a physical office? As it turns out, more than ½ of professionals do.Professionals Miss Going To A Physical Office

Here are some key learnings (08/20-08/21)

1.  55% of surveyed professionals miss going into a physical office

o    70% of Google professionals miss going into a physical office, compared to 31% of Salesforce professionals

2.  42% of surveyed professionals state that compared to an in office setting, their stress levels during WFH are overall higher 

o    . 59% of Google professionals say their stress levels during WFH are overall higher

o    40% of Facebook professionals say their stress during WFH are overall higher

3.  29% of surveyed professionals state that compared to an in office setting, their productivity levels during WFH are overall lower

o    . 52% of Apple professionals state that compared to an in office setting, their productivity levels during WFH are overall lower

o    46% of Facebook professionals state that compared to an in office setting, their productivity levels during WFH are overall lower

Look at the raw data:

One Amazon user writes: “Folks working at companies with a ton of in office benefits (Google, FB) – do you miss the free food and everything while wfh? Have your companies offered to compensate in some other way? All put together, those benefits probably had a modest dollar amount associated with them.”

Q1 Comparison

Do you miss going into a physical office?

Yes

No

Grand Total

622

502

1124

55%

45%

100%

Do you miss going into a physical office?

Yes

No

Grand Total

Microsoft

58%

42%

106

Amazon

53%

47%

94

Google

70%

30%

50

Facebook

72%

28%

29

Apple

56%

44%

27

Oracle

72%

28%

25

Cisco

71%

29%

24

Intel Corporation

43%

57%

23

LinkedIn

62%

38%

21

Uber

60%

40%

20

VMware

47%

53%

17

Salesforce

31%

69%

16

Adobe

50%

50%

16

Lyft

81%

19%

16

Walmart

57%

43%

14

Capital One

64%

36%

11

Intuit

40%

60%

10

Q2 Comparison

Compared to an in office setting, your stress levels during WFH are:

Overall higher

The same

Overall lower

Grand Total

424

302

273

999

42%

30%

27%

100%

Compared to an in office setting, your stress levels during WFH are:

Overall higher

The same

Overall lower

Grand Total

Microsoft

47%

30%

23%

92

Amazon

43%

30%

28%

87

Google

59%

27%

15%

41

Facebook

40%

40%

20%

25

Oracle

42%

42%

17%

24

Apple

26%

35%

39%

23

Cisco

65%

30%

5%

20

LinkedIn

63%

21%

16%

19

Intel Corporation

32%

32%

37%

19

Uber

44%

22%

33%

18

Lyft

38%

38%

25%

16

VMware

50%

21%

29%

14

Walmart

25%

17%

58%

12

Salesforce

25%

50%

25%

12

Adobe

45%

45%

9%

11

Q3 Comparison

Compared to an in office setting, your productivity levels during WFH are:

Overall higher

The same

Overall lower

Grand Total

335

361

281

977

34%

37%

29%

100%

Compared to an in office setting, your productivity levels during WFH are:

Overall higher

The same

Overall lower

Grand Total

Microsoft

31%

35%

34%

89

Amazon

39%

33%

28%

85

Google

32%

22%

46%

41

Facebook

28%

20%

52%

25

Apple

35%

48%

17%

23

Oracle

26%

39%

35%

23

Cisco

38%

48%

14%

21

LinkedIn

37%

26%

37%

19

Intel Corporation

42%

32%

26%

19

Uber

41%

35%

24%

17

Lyft

44%

38%

19%

16

VMware

46%

38%

15%

13

Salesforce

42%

33%

25%

12

Walmart

42%

33%

25%

12

Adobe

45%

27%

27%

11

 https://www.valuewalk.com/2020/08/professionals-miss-physical-office/

10. How to Nail Your Goals with This Simple Secret

4 Keys to Accomplish the Goals You Keep Missingby Megan Hyatt Miller

This is a guest post by Megan Hyatt Miller. Megan is the Chief Operating Officer of Michael Hyatt & Co. She is also Michael’s oldest daughter. Megan, her husband Joel, and their four children make their home in Franklin, Tennessee.

Most of us start pursuing our goals with great focus and intensity, but roadblocks inevitably surface before we’re far down the road. We might be tempted to quit, or simply redouble our efforts in an effort to scale the obstacle, but the secret may be tossing our strategy out the window and trying an alternate approach.

I’ve been steadily working to reclaim my fitness, working out with a trainer consistently for several months, doing cardio on my off days, and dialing in my nutrition. In fact, it felt so good to feel strong again, that I pushed it a little harder than I should have.

Just as all my hard work started to pay off, I noticed a pain developing in my foot. I tried to ignore it for several weeks, but eventually I gave in and went to the doctor, only to discover I had a stress fracture in my fourth metatarsal. As I walked out of the doctor hobbling in my boot, I felt angry, defeated, and ready to quit. But I didn’t.

Instead, I went to a local gym, signed up, and started using equipment that would keep me active while letting my foot rest. It’s an example of a simple but powerful secret: The way to achieve our goals is to hold them tightly and our strategies loosely.

A Goal Setting Super Power

I used to feel like a failure when I would change strategy to accomplish my goals. I worried I might lack commitment, or just be a bad planner. After all, if I were better at setting goals, wouldn’t I have nailed the strategy the first time? But over the years I’ve realized my ability to zig and zag with strategy is not a mark of failure, but instead a goal setting super power.

This year, I’ve already changed strategy multiple times in three major areas—and those are the areas where I’m making the most progress. Whether it’s my health and fitness goals, Michael Hyatt & Co. growth targets, or my children, I rarely achieve anything significant that doesn’t require at least a handful of significant strategy changes.

Why? Because we only have limited visibility when we set our goals. Think about it: How could you possibly plan for all the contingencies that will happen in a 365-day period on January 1 (or whenever you set your annual goals)? I haven’t had a year yet where unforeseen obstacles, challenges, and opportunities presented themselves in a constant parade.

What Helmuth von Moltke said about war applies perfectly to reaching our goals:

[N]o plan of operations extends with any certainty beyond the first contact with the main hostile force. . . . [T]he commander in chief will always keep his main objective in mind and will not be swayed by the changeability of events. Nevertheless, the way in which he hopes to attain that objective cannot be laid out in advance with any degree of certainty.

Instead, von Moltke said commanders will keep their objectives in view but use their judgment to react in the moment.

4 Keys to Cultivate Your Super Power

Before I make it sound like this kind of magical flexibility comes naturally to me, I have to confess I am not naturally flexible at all. Just ask my husband and kids. In fact, on the StrengthsFinder test of 34 strengths, my lowest scoring strength is Adaptability. I’m basically a life-long underachiever in the flexibility department. That’s good news, because this is less of a natural aptitude and more of a skill that anyone can cultivate.

If, like me, you can’t rely on your natural ability to excel at flexibility, here are 4 keys to help you cultivate this in yourself.

1.   There are no sacred cows. Your goals may be sacred, but your strategy sure isn’t. All that matters is whether or not it works. If the answer is no, you should feel free—compelled, even—to chuck it out the window and try something else.

2.   A plan is still important. You might be tempted to think creating a game plan to accomplish your goals is a waste of time. Far from it. After all, having a plan is what gets us in motion, moving toward our goals. Without it, we would likely never get out of the gate. Just remember to hold it loosely as obstacles arise.

3.   Possibility thinking is the secret sauce. Shifting gears from one strategy to the next presumes that you believe a better strategy exists, even if you don’t know what it is yet. This is part of what helps you hold your plans loosely. Focus on staying out of a place of scarcity, and in a place of abundance that says, “My best thinking, and my best strategies have yet to be discovered. There are always more ways to get there than I can see right now.”

4.   Show your work. If you’re leading a team, this is a critical final step. You must explain your rationale for changing strategy to your team, and you must enroll them in your vision. This sets your team up for alignment with you, and the willingness to follow where you lead, even if it’s disruptive in the short term. As a leader, you must also be intentional about building a culture where flexibility, change, and risk taking are affirmed, so when you display these traits, they are seen as positive, not negative.

I take my goals very seriously. Too seriously to think my strategies are sacred. Think of it like driving to an important event. Maybe the road you initially chose was the quickest way—until an accident ground everything to a stop. If you can turn off the road and find a better route, do you take it or just creep along and miss your meeting?

The way to achieve our goals is to hold them tightly and our strategies loosely.Megan Hyatt Miller

The key to developing your own goal setting super power is to develop your tolerance for “changing your route” as often as you need to get to your goal.

Question: What route adjustments (or changes in strategy) do you need to make, today, to accomplish your goals? Share your answer on FacebookTwitter, or LinkedIn.

https://michaelhyatt.com/nail-your-goals/

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Topley’s Top 10 – August 26, 2020

1. Sector Changes in the Dow….Tech Down Healthcare Up.

Bespoke notes The biggest shifts in sector weights with the Dow Changes will be in Health Care and Industrials (to the upside) and Technology and Energy (to the downside) – Roughly $31.5 billion of assets are benchmarked to the Dow, with $28.2 billion of passively managed funds linked. (The figures are $11.2 trillion and $4.6 trillion for the S&P 500.)

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading.

2. Airlines vs. Gold Hitting Historical Lows.

Which Asset Is Most Sensitive to Vaccines?

The biggest underperformers under the pandemic — airlines — will likely come back with a bang should vaccines be cleared for broad use and virus counts decrease. At the same time, some of this year’s biggest gainers would slump, especially gold. Gold tumbled and value stocks gained after Russia’s vaccine news, imagine how much stronger the moves would be if an inoculation received full approval from a western nation or two. – BBG

From Chris Preston River and Mercantile

3. The Other 94%…Just 6% of S&P at 52 Week Highs

Posted August 20, 2020 by Michael Batnick

Yesterday, the S&P 500 made a new all-time high. However, of the 500 members in the index, just 6% were concurrently making 52-week highs.

This is a remarkable data point, but it doesn’t necessarily tell the whole story. What if the other 94% were just 2% from a 52-week high? They’re not, but if they were, this data point would obscure that fact.

This data point also doesn’t reveal that the median stock is 63% above its 52 week low. Most stocks might not be near a 52-week high, but they’re also very from their 52-week lows.

So how exactly are stocks doing? On an absolute basis, the median S&P 500 stock is down 3.1% year-to-date, while 56% of them are above their 200-day moving average. Hardly terrible, but not great either.

On a relative basis, it’s pretty gnarly out there. 64% of the S&P 500 is under performing the index in 2020. The median level of underperformance -22%. The 64% is actually in line with historical numbers, but the magnitude (-22%) sounds high. I don’t have that data, but would love to see it if anybody does.

The only thing you really need to know to determine how a stock has performed in 2020 is by looking at its market cap. Granted, there might be a little double counting going on because I’m measuring from today, not from Jan 1, but I’m nearly certain that the numbers wouldn’t change much at all.

It’s normal to worry about the market when fewer and fewer stocks are leading the charge, but this is not a new worry, we’ve been talking about this for years

I know this is the type of thing that doesn’t matter until it matters, but we should also consider an alternate outcome. What if a handful of the other 94% of stocks catch up? I’m not predicting that, but it’s an outcome that we have to at least be open minded to.

It’s always important to look beyond individual data points, because facts don’t always tell the whole story.

 https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2020/08/20/the-other-94/

4. Global companies raise most funds for the month of August in a decade

Scott MurdochPatturaja Murugaboopathy

(Reuters) – Companies raised the most funds in global equity and debt markets for the month of August in a decade as homebound bankers spend their summer fixing deals off the back of trillions of dollars of stimulus worldwide to fight the coronavirus pandemic.

Companies have raised $65.5 billion through initial public offerings (IPOs) and high-yield bond issuances globally so far in August, the highest for that month in at least 10 years, according to Refinitiv data. They raised $98.6 billion in July and $126.5 billion in June, which was the highest in 20 years.

Graphic: Monthly global IPO proceeds here

Reuters Graphic

Reuters Graphic

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-markets-global-fundraising/global-companies-raise-most-funds-for-the-month-of-august-in-a-decade-idUSKBN25K15H

Found at Crossing Wall Street blog http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/

5. The Growth Rate of U.S. Debt Outpacing WWII

We Have Crossed the Line Debt Hawks Warned Us About for Decades—

The debt of the United States now exceeds the size of its gross domestic product. That was considered a doomsday scenario that would wreck the economy. So far, that hasn’t happened

“At this stage, I think, nobody is very worried about debt,” said Olivier Blanchard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund. “It’s clear that we can probably go where we are going, which is debt ratios above 100 percent in many countries. And that’s not the end of the world.”

That nonchalant attitude toward what were once thought to be major breaking points reflects an evolution in the way investors, economists and central bankers think about government debt.

At the end of last year, the United States was about $17 trillion in debt — roughly 80 percent of the gross domestic product. In January, government analysts predicted that debt would approach 100 percent of the G.D.P. around 2030. But by the end of June, the debt stood at $20.53 trillion, or roughly 106 percent of G.D.P., which shrank amid widespread stay-at-home orders. (These numbers don’t count trillions more the government owes itself in bonds held by the Social Security and Medicare trust funds.)

That more than 25 percentage-point surge would represent the largest annual leap in American indebtedness since Alexander Hamilton founded the nation’s credit in the 1790s, outpacing even the debt growth at the peak of World War II, according to data from the Congressional Budget Office.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/21/business/economy/national-debt-coronavirus-stimulus.html?auth=login-email&login=email

6. Tech vs. Dividend Growers 15 Year Chart

So it’s no surprise that the tech-heavy S&P 500 has been outperforming the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats for many years. But if you look back 15 years, the story changes:

Over 15 years, the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index has beaten the performance of the full S&P 500 Index.

 FACTSET

These ‘Dividend Aristocrat’ stocks have been raising their dividends for decades, and there have been no dividend cuts during the pandemic By Philip van Doorn

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-dividend-aristocrat-stocks-have-been-raising-their-dividends-for-decades-and-there-have-been-no-dividend-cuts-during-the-pandemic-2020-08-25?mod=newsviewer_click

7. Disney Leads Old Media Giants in Making Money From Streaming

Christopher Palmeri

Disney Leads Old Media Giants in Making Money From Streaming

(Bloomberg) — Online video is becoming a serious business for some of America’s oldest and largest media companies, with Walt Disney Co. leading the pack.

Disney will generate an estimated $11.2 billion in direct-to-consumer revenue this year, according to a report released Monday by Macquarie Research. That would account for 19% of its total sales — a level rivals in traditional media haven’t matched.

Macquarie credits Disney+, which quickly snapped up more than 60 million subscribers, and Hulu, a business that the company gained majority control of last year.

Fox Corp. and Comcast Corp. are the new-media laggards in the old-media group. Fox sold the bulk of its entertainment assets to Disney last year, and Comcast is just getting started in streaming: Its ad-supported Peacock service debuted nationally last month.

The big surprise, however, may be Lions Gate Entertainment Corp., which will get 18% of revenue from streaming this year, according to Macquarie. Lions Gate said recently that it had over 11 million online customers for its Starz service globally.

Analysts expect Netflix Inc. to generate almost $25 billion in revenue this year, virtually all of it from streaming.

For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com

Subscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.

 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/disney-leads-old-media-giants-191812649.html

8.  50% of U.S. Households Have Less Than $1000 Saved.

 

CHART OF THE DAY: Households Were Not Prepared For An Income Shock Keith McCullough @keithmcculloughhttps://app.hedgeye.com/insights/88256-chart-of-the-day-households-were-not-prepared-for-an-income-shock?type=macro%2Cmarket-insights

9. Betting on Return to Workplace

Erica Pandey, author of @Work

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

As the pandemic has persisted, Silicon Valley tech giants have extended their telework timelines — and some have even said that employees can stay home forever. But now those same firms are simultaneously betting on the future of the office.

Why it matters: Remote work has been successful at many firms, but the vast majority still have strong office cultures. The pandemic won’t drastically alter that.

  • “COVID changed a lot of minds,” says Julie Whelan, of the commercial real estate firm CBRE. “That said, there are billions of square feet leased across the United States, and that’s not disappearing overnight.”

What’s happening: Office leasing activity in the second quarter of 2020 was down 44% year-over-year, CBRE reports. But it appears to be bouncing back, led by the tech titans.

  • Amazon is adding 900,000 square feet of office space in New York City, Phoenix, Dallas, Detroit, San Diego and Denver. And Facebook is expanding its New York footprint with 730,000 additional square feet in midtown Manhattan.
  • Amazon is also in the middle of building two large complexes to complement its Seattle headquarters. Its Hyderabad, India, building is 1.8 million square feet, and its Arlington, Virginia, campus — HQ2 — could be as big as 8 million square feet.

The tech giants’ bets on the importance of the office appear to be shared by other big firms.

  • Per a CBRE survey of 126 companies, half of which are Fortune 500 firms, 70% are confident in setting long-term real estate strategies even amid the pandemic.
  • 79% say the importance of the physical office will decrease slightly or remain the same when the coronavirus crisis is over.
  • And teleworkers across the country say they’ve developed an appreciation for the workplaces they once griped about.

But, but, but: While the pandemic won’t kill offices, its effects on where and how we work will linger.

  • Look for many companies to pursue a hybrid of work-from-home and work-from-office. 61% of CBRE’s respondents say employees will be able to work remotely at least part of the time in the post-pandemic world.
  • That means those firms won’t need as much space, and many will downsize.

The bottom line: “We’re changing why we need an office: It’s the social interaction,” Whelan says. “That doesn’t need to happen five days a week. But it still needs to happen.”

  • As Jerry Seinfeld writes in his defense of New York City, “Energy, attitude and personality cannot be ‘remoted’ through even the best fiber optic lines.”

https://www.axios.com/workplace-office-telework-remote-coronavirus-41785f8e-c4f0-482e-b76d-55e4ae1615f2.html

 10. Ten Things You Do That Make You Less Likable

Too many people succumb to the mistaken belief that being likable comes from natural traits that belong only to a lucky few. Dr. Travis Bradberry shows you how being likable is under your control.

BY TRAVIS BRADBERRY, AUTHOR, EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE 2.0@TALENTSMARTEQ

Getty Images

Too many people succumb to the mistaken belief that being likable comes from natural, unteachable traits that belong only to a lucky few–the good looking, the fiercely social, and the incredibly talented. It’s easy to fall prey to this misconception. In reality, being likable is under your control, and it’s a matter of emotional intelligence (EQ).

In a study conducted at UCLA, subjects rated over 500 descriptions of people based on their perceived significance to likability. The top-rated descriptors had nothing to do with being gregarious, intelligent, or attractive (innate characteristics). Instead, the top descriptors were sincerity, transparency, and capable of understanding (another person).

These adjectives, and others like them, describe people who are skilled in the social side of emotional intelligence. TalentSmart research data from more than a million people shows that people who possess these skills aren’t just highly likable; they outperform those who don’t by a large margin.

Likability is so powerful that it can completely alter your performance. A University of Massachusetts study found that managers were willing to accept an auditor’s argument with no supporting evidence if he or she was likable, and Jack Zenger found that just one in 2,000 unlikable leaders are considered effective.

I did some digging to uncover the key behaviors that hold people back when it comes to likability. Make certain these behaviors don’t catch you by surprise.

1. Humble-bragging. We all know those people who like to brag about themselves behind the mask of self-deprecation. For example, the gal who makes fun of herself for being a nerd when she really wants to draw attention to the fact that she’s smart, or the guy who makes fun of himself for having a strict diet when he really wants you to know how healthy and fit he is. While many people think that self-deprecation masks their bragging, everyone sees right through it. This makes the bragging all the more frustrating, because it isn’t just bragging; it’s also an attempt to deceive.

2. Being too serious. People gravitate toward those who are passionate. That said, it’s easy for passionate people to come across as too serious or uninterested, because they tend to get absorbed in their work. Likable people balance their passion for their work with their ability to have fun. At work they are serious, yet friendly. They still get things done because they are socially effective in short amounts of time and they capitalize on valuable social moments. They focus on having meaningful interactions with their co-workers, remembering what people said to them yesterday or last week, which shows people that they are just as important to them as their work is.

3. Not asking enough questions. The biggest mistake people make in conversation is being so focused on what they’re going to say next or how what the other person is saying is going to affect them that they fail to hear what’s being said. The words come through loud and clear, but the meaning is lost. A simple way to avoid this is to ask a lot of questions. People like to know you’re listening, and something as simple as a clarification question shows that not only are you listening, but you also care about what they’re saying. You’ll be surprised how much respect and appreciation you gain just by asking questions.

4. Emotional hijackings. My company provides 360° feedback assessments, and we come across far too many instances of people throwing things, screaming, making people cry, and other telltale signs of an emotional hijacking. An emotional hijacking demonstrates low emotional intelligence. As soon as you show that level of instability, people will question whether or not you’re trustworthy and capable of keeping it together when it counts.

Exploding at anyone, regardless of how much they might “deserve it,” turns a huge amount of negative attention your way. You’ll be labeled as unstable, unapproachable, and intimidating. Controlling your emotions keeps you in the driver’s seat. When you’re able to control your emotions around someone who wrongs you, they end up looking bad instead of you.

5. Whipping out your phone. Nothing turns someone off to you like a mid-conversation text message or even a quick glance at your phone. When you commit to a conversation, focus all of your energy on the conversation. You’ll find that conversations are more enjoyable and effective when you immerse yourself in them.

6. Name-dropping. It’s great to know important and interesting people, but using every conversation as an opportunity to name drop is pretentious and silly. Just like humble-bragging, people see right through it. Instead of making you look interesting, it makes people feel as though you’re insecure and overly concerned with having them like you. It also cheapens what you have to offer. When you connect everything you know with who you know (instead of what you know or what you think), conversations lose their color.

People are averse to those who are desperate for attention. Simply being friendly and considerate is all you need to win people over. When you speak in a friendly, confident, and concise manner, people are much more attentive and persuadable than if you try to show them that you’re important. People catch on to your attitude quickly and are more attracted to the right attitude than who you know.

7. Gossiping. People make themselves look terrible when they get carried away with gossiping. Wallowing in talk of other people’s misdeeds or misfortunes may end up hurting their feelings if the gossip ever finds its way to them, but gossiping is guaranteed to make you look negative and spiteful every time.

8. Having a closed mind. If you want to be likable, you must be open-minded, which makes you approachable and interesting to others. No one wants to have a conversation with someone who has already formed an opinion and is unwilling to listen. Having an open mind is crucial in the workplace, where approachability means access to new ideas and help. To eliminate preconceived notions and judgment, you need to see the world through other people’s eyes. This doesn’t require that you believe what they believe or condone their behavior; it simply means that you quit passing judgment long enough to truly understand what makes them tick.

9. Sharing too much, too early. While getting to know people requires a healthy amount of sharing, sharing too much about yourself right off the bat comes across wrong. Be careful to avoid sharing personal problems and confessions too quickly. Likable people let the other person guide them as to when it’s the right time for them to open up. Over-sharing comes across as self-obsessed and insensitive to the balance of the conversation. Think of it this way: If you’re getting into the nitty-gritty of your life without learning about the other person first, you’re sending the message that you see them as nothing more than a sounding board for your problems.

10. Sharing too much on social media. Studies have shown that people who over-share on social media do so because they crave acceptance, but the Pew Research Center has revealed that this over-sharing works against them by making people dislike them. Sharing on social media can be an important mode of expression, but it needs to be done thoughtfully and with some self-control. Letting everyone know what you ate for breakfast, lunch, and dinner, along with how many times you walked your dog today, will do much more harm than good when it comes to likability.

Bringing It All Together

When you build your awareness of how your actions are received by other people, you pave the way to becoming more likable.

What other things make people less likable? Please share your thoughts in the comments section, as I learn just as much from you as you do from me.

https://www.inc.com/travis-bradberry/10-things-you-do-that-make-you-less-likeable.html?cid=sf01003&sr_share=facebook

Shopify Founder: These Are the 2 Books That Made Me Into a Billionaire

Tobias Lütke credits these two books with transforming him from an awkward programmer into a successful leader. 

BY JESSICA STILLMAN, CONTRIBUTOR, INC.COM@ENTRYLEVELREBEL

Tobias Lutke, CEO and co-founder of Shopify. Getty Images

Some billionaire business success stories got where they are on personal charm, salesmanship, and communication chops. Others were quiet, reserved “nerds” who just managed to build a product so awesome it took off like a rocket ship, forcing them to figure out the people side of business on the fly.

Shopify co-founder Tobias Lütke is solidly in the second camp. A programmer by trade, Lütke had no intention of having anything to do with the business side of Shopify, the Canadian startup he co-founded and which has since become an e-commerce juggernaut. But then, as he explained on Tim Ferriss’s podcast, circumstance intervened and he found himself needing to grow into a leader capable of scaling his startup, and fast.

He decided to source some reading that would arm him with the skills he needed. As he shares with Ferriss (hat tip to this excellent post by Alan Trapulionis), that process of soliciting recommendations ended up yielding two titles. Lütke credits them with teaching him the skills to build a billion-dollar business (as well as a multibillion-dollar net worth).

1. Influence by Robert Cialdini

Influence was just the most mind-bending book you can imagine, because it essentially taught you all the ways humans are flawed and influenceable, and how, yes, computers are predictable, but once you make things for people you need to go into storytelling,” says Lütke.

“Which was news to me, frankly. I spent my teens with computers. Not with people,” he adds to laughs from Ferriss.

An international bestseller when it was first published in 1984, Influence remains a foundational work on the science of persuasion, so Lütke is far from the only brilliant-but-awkward young striver Cialdini has helped. If you’re looking for a quick summary of the book’s basic ideas, Trapulionis’s post has a useful rundown.

2. High Output Management by Andrew Grove

“One of the best books ever,” raves Lütke of this second classic by the former CEO of Intel, describing High Output Management as “a how-to manual that deconstructs the world of business into first principles. It’s like, here’s what matters. Here’s how to think about it.” By laying out building a business like an engineering exercise, Grove’s book made the whole challenge far less daunting, Lütke claims.

He’s not the only nerdy young entrepreneur riding a startup rocket ship to benefit from the legendary title. Mark Zuckerberg also claims the “book played a big role in shaping my management style.”

If you, too, are intimidated by the less technical aspects of building a business, it might be worth picking up these books. Who knows? They might even help you create a billion-dollar company too.

AUG 24, 2020

The opinions expressed here by Inc.com columnists are their own, not those of Inc.com.

https://www.inc.com/jessica-stillman/shopify-tobias-lutke-andrew-grove.html?cid=sf01003

Disclosure

Lansing Street Advisors is a registered investment adviser with the State of Pennsylvania..
To the extent that content includes references to securities, those references do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or hold such security as information is provided for educational purposes only. Articles should not be considered investment advice and the information contain within should not be relied upon in assessing whether or not to invest in any securities or asset classes mentioned. Articles have been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Securities discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Please keep in mind that a company’s past financial performance, including the performance of its share price, does not guarantee future results.
Material compiled by Lansing Street Advisors is based on publicly available data at the time of compilation. Lansing Street Advisors makes no warranties or representation of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to the use such data.
Material for market review represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results.
Indices that may be included herein are unmanaged indices and one cannot directly invest in an index. Index returns do not reflect the impact of any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. The index information included herein is for illustrative purposes only.

Topley’s Top 10 – August 25, 2020

1.Tech Saw Revenue Growth Q2 2020.

From Nasdaq Dorsey Wright  www.dorseywright.com

2. Two Charts on International Valuations From Invesco.

3. Global Stocks vs. S&P 500

https://twitter.com/CiovaccoCapital

4. Dow Industrials Kicks Out Exxon in Biggest Shake-Up Since 2013..Out with Energy in with Cloud.

Sarah Ponczek and Katherine Greifeld

Dow Industrials Kicks Out Exxon in Biggest Shake-Up Since 2013

More

(Bloomberg) — Exxon Mobil Corp, Pfizer Inc. and Raytheon Technologies Corp. were kicked out of the Dow Jones Industrial Average as part of the stock benchmark’s biggest reshuffling in seven years, actions that will boost the influence of technology companies that have dominated the 2020 stock market.

Salesforce.com, Amgen Inc. and Honeywell International will enter the 124-year old equity gauge a week from today, its overseers said. The moves were prompted when Apple Inc.’s stock split effectively reduced the sway of computer and softward stocks in the price-weighted average.

While any change to the Dow is notable, the ejection of Exxon Mobil — the world’s biggest company as recently as 2011 — marks a particularly stunning fall from grace, reflecting the decline of commodity companies in the American economy. Worth $525 billion in 2007 and more than $450 billion as recently 2014, the stock had fallen in four of six years before 2020 and is down another 40% since January.

“Those changes are a sign of the times – out with energy and in with cloud,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance.

The latest reshuffling is more testament to the ascent of technology companies, a trend amplified by this year’s Covid 19 lockdowns. While the Dow average is still 4.2% off its February record, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is almost 20% above the pre-pandemic all-time high.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dow-industrials-kicks-exxon-biggest-220032220.html

5.  4 Out of 5 Working Age Households Have Retirement Savings of Less Than 1x Annual Income

Zerohedge

Lastly, only 4-0ut-of-5 working-age households have retirement savings of less than one times their annual income. This does not bode well for the sustainability of living standards in the “golden years.”

The 4% Rule Is Dead. What Should Retirees Do Now? https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/4-rule-dead-what-should-retirees-do-now

6.  The Big Short on Malls.

‘The Big Short 2.0’: How Hedge Funds Profited Off the Pain of Malls–As the pandemic accelerated the demise of some brick-and-mortar retailers, a group of investors profited handsomely from their travails.

The CMBX 6 index is intended to track a basket of bond products, each of which contains bundles of individual mortgages to commercial borrowers, more than 2,000 in total. Those products are then sliced into brackets, known as tranches, and assigned credit ratings ranging from AAA to BB, according to their perceived level of risk.

The CMBX 6, which tracks the performance of mortgages issued in 2012, has been a target for short-sellers because of its relatively strong exposure to malls. According to an analysis by Trepp, 40 percent of the property loans tracked by the CMBX 6 are in the retail sector, giving it the highest exposure to retailers of any CMBX index. (The balance of the mortgages are in the lodging, residential, office and industrial sectors.) Of the retail mortgages the CMBX 6 tracks, 39 are in American malls, many of which have 10-year mortgages coming due in 2022.

Deer Park Road’s Mr. Burg, who specializes in complicated bond investments and said his firm had done well by betting heavily on risky home borrowers in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, adopted the mall short before the virus hit. His research suggested similarities between the lax way that home loans were signed in the run-up to the last crisis and the underwriting of many retail mortgages. He also thought there were too many malls.

By the middle of May, the portion of the CMBX 6 with a BBB– rating, which had begun the year trading strongly but was especially popular with short-sellers, had fallen more than 30 points. It has recovered only a few points since then.

“It’s an absolute perfect storm, unfortunately, for the commercial real estate market,” Mr. Burg said. “We see very little that the Fed or government can possibly do to prop this up when there’s so much excess supply.”

Scott Burg of the Deer Park Road fund compared the underwriting of many retail mortgages to the way home loans were approved before the 2008 financial crisis.Credit…Caleb Santiago Alvarado for The New York Times

To short any CMBX index — there are 13, each tied to a different origination year for commercial mortgages — investors pay various fees, including an annual amount to hold what is essentially an insurance policy that pays out if the mortgages the index tracks default. Those fees might be $300,000 to $500,000 a year for every $10 million of insurance the investor wants to hold.

Before making their bets, some investors who shorted the CMBX indexes engaged in labor-intensive research. Mr. Mudrick and his analysts walked all 39 malls in the CMBX 6 index, from the Northridge Fashion Center in Los Angeles to the Town Center at Cobb in Kennesaw, Ga. Wearing casual clothes, his group paced the perimeters and food courts, snapping photographs and taking notes.

7. New York and San Fran Only Places Where Home Inventory Increasing

John Burns

https://www.linkedin.com/in/johnburns7/

8. Boise ID Turning into Brooklyn.

People are flocking to Idaho during the pandemic. I spent 4 days in its capital city last fall, and a walk through downtown made it clear why it’s so popular.

Katie Warren 

downtown boise

Boise is having a moment. Katie Warren/Business Insider

·         -While some states have seen population losses during the pandemic, people are flocking to Idaho.

·         -194% more people moved into Idaho than left the state since March, according to data from moving marketplace HireAHelper.

·         -Its capital, Boise, was becoming a hot destination even before the pandemic: Its population grew by 18.2% from 2010 to 2018, and Forbes named it the fastest-growing city in the US in 2018.

·         Microbreweriesluxury condos, and Brooklyn-esque coffee shops have been popping up in the Pacific Northwest city of 229,000 people.

·         -In November 2019, I spent four days in Boise’s thriving downtown area, which is full of locally owned bars and restaurants, microbreweries and cider houses, and new luxury apartments.

·         Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.

Everybody wants to live in Idaho right now.

While states like New York and California have seen mass exoduses during the pandemic, others have seen a more people moving in than out. In Idaho, 194% more people moved in than left the state since March, according to data from moving marketplace HireAHelper.

Well before the pandemic, its capital city was experiencing a major growth spurt. Forbes named Boise the fastest-growing city in the US in 2018. Its population grew by 18.2% from 2010 to 2018, and by more than 3% from 2017 to 2018.

Most out-of-state transplants have been coming from California, primarily from the Los Angeles metro area. Almost 80,000 people moved to Idaho in 2018, and more than 21,000 of them were from California, according to US Census data.

According to locals, people are finally figuring out how great of a place Boise is to live. In 2019, Boise was named the best place to live for millennials, as well as the best US city to buy a house.

Last November, I spent four days in Boise exploring the city and talking to business owners and residents. As someone who lives in Brooklyn and works in Manhattan, I was curious to get a feel for Boise’s downtown and see what kind of lifestyle it offers for big-city transplants. After four days, I can, for starters, say this: Boise does not disappoint.

Keep reading for a look at its vibrant downtown area, which is bustling with breweries, farm-to-table restaurants, coffee shops, and new luxury apartments.

Boise, the capital of Idaho, is one of the fastest-growing cities in the US.

boise idaho

Katie Warren/Business Insider

Boise saw an 18.2% population jump from 2010 to 2018 and was the fastest-growing city in the country from 2017 to 2018, according to Forbes.

Roughly 25% of out-of-state transplants in Boise came from California, followed by Washington, Utah, Oregon, and Texas, according to the Boise Valley Economic Partnership’s marketing manager.

While many welcome Boise’s growth, some say the influx of new residents is pricing out longtime locals. The average home price in Boise jumped almost 12% from 2017 to 2018, and average rent has increased by roughly 7% in the past year. But wages haven’t kept up, leaving many residents struggling to afford their living costs.

Some also say the growth has brought with it big-city-like traffic.

https://www.businessinsider.com/boise-idaho-downtown-breweries-coffee-shops-restaurants-2019-11

9. These schools have the largest endowments in the country — yet they’re still raising tuition during the COVID pandemic

By Jillian Berman

A MarketWatch analysis indicates that many colleges are going forward with planned tuition increases this year

In this photo provided by Jason Koski, Bryan Maley, right, a graduate student in the Master of Public Health program at Cornell University, interviews a student on campus about mask-wearing experiences as part of a public health survey, Friday, July 30, 2020, in Ithaca, N.Y. (Photo: Jason Koski/Cornell University via AP)

Christian Baran has been thinking about the value his college tuition is supposed to be buying since the spring.

Baran, 21, was a sophomore at Cornell University when the school, like most others, rushed students home and into online classrooms in March as the reality of the pandemic began to set in. Baran thought his family might get some sort of tuition refund, given that the experience was so different from what he thought his tuition was buying.

“But we didn’t get anything,” Baran said. Like almost every college in the country, Cornell didn’t give back any tuition money, but the school did provide rebates for housing and dining contracts.

Now, as the start of the fall semester at the school approaches, the school is moving forward with a planned tuition increase of 3.6% that was approved in January before the pandemic. Cornell, which is planning to bring students back to Ithaca and offer some in-person classes, is expecting to increase the amount of financial aid it awards, and will be drawing more than typical from its endowment in fiscal year 2021 to generate an additional $15 million.

Still, it’s not enough for Baran. “It seems ridiculous to keep paying the same amount for what seems to be an inferior hybridized education,” he said. And that’s a best-case scenario, assuming the school doesn’t end up shifting completely to remote instruction, as some have already done.

So instead of paying Cornell tuition, Baran decided to enroll in community college for the fall semester and hopefully return to Cornell in the spring. “I don’t think that it’s worth it,” he said.

Cornell is one of at least 39 U.S. institutions whose endowments are in the top 100, that is going ahead with a planned tuition increase for undergraduates this upcoming academic year, according to a MarketWatch analysis. We found that 35 others are planning to keep tuition the same as last year and five are discounting tuition from previously announced levels. (Of the other institutions in the top 100 endowments, four are based in Canada, four are institutions serving only graduate students and several did not provide the requested information by press time. We will update when we hear back).

Colleges’ tuition policies for the fall

Some schools are cutting tuition, while others are moving forward with planned increases. See the full list here:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/at-many-schools-college-will-cost-more-than-last-year-despite-covid-disruptions-11598262606?mod=home-page

10. The Simplest Ways To Make The Best Of Your Life.

https://www.pinterest.com/pin/422281201654500/

Disclosure

Lansing Street Advisors is a registered investment adviser with the State of Pennsylvania..
To the extent that content includes references to securities, those references do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or hold such security as information is provided for educational purposes only. Articles should not be considered investment advice and the information contain within should not be relied upon in assessing whether or not to invest in any securities or asset classes mentioned. Articles have been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Securities discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Please keep in mind that a company’s past financial performance, including the performance of its share price, does not guarantee future results.
Material compiled by Lansing Street Advisors is based on publicly available data at the time of compilation. Lansing Street Advisors makes no warranties or representation of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to the use such data.
Material for market review represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results.
Indices that may be included herein are unmanaged indices and one cannot directly invest in an index. Index returns do not reflect the impact of any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. The index information included herein is for illustrative purposes only.