1. Sector Changes in the Dow….Tech Down Healthcare Up.

Bespoke notes The biggest shifts in sector weights with the Dow Changes will be in Health Care and Industrials (to the upside) and Technology and Energy (to the downside) – Roughly $31.5 billion of assets are benchmarked to the Dow, with $28.2 billion of passively managed funds linked. (The figures are $11.2 trillion and $4.6 trillion for the S&P 500.)

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading.

2. Airlines vs. Gold Hitting Historical Lows.

Which Asset Is Most Sensitive to Vaccines?

The biggest underperformers under the pandemic — airlines — will likely come back with a bang should vaccines be cleared for broad use and virus counts decrease. At the same time, some of this year’s biggest gainers would slump, especially gold. Gold tumbled and value stocks gained after Russia’s vaccine news, imagine how much stronger the moves would be if an inoculation received full approval from a western nation or two. – BBG

From Chris Preston River and Mercantile

3. The Other 94%…Just 6% of S&P at 52 Week Highs

Posted August 20, 2020 by Michael Batnick

Yesterday, the S&P 500 made a new all-time high. However, of the 500 members in the index, just 6% were concurrently making 52-week highs.

This is a remarkable data point, but it doesn’t necessarily tell the whole story. What if the other 94% were just 2% from a 52-week high? They’re not, but if they were, this data point would obscure that fact.

This data point also doesn’t reveal that the median stock is 63% above its 52 week low. Most stocks might not be near a 52-week high, but they’re also very from their 52-week lows.

So how exactly are stocks doing? On an absolute basis, the median S&P 500 stock is down 3.1% year-to-date, while 56% of them are above their 200-day moving average. Hardly terrible, but not great either.

On a relative basis, it’s pretty gnarly out there. 64% of the S&P 500 is under performing the index in 2020. The median level of underperformance -22%. The 64% is actually in line with historical numbers, but the magnitude (-22%) sounds high. I don’t have that data, but would love to see it if anybody does.

The only thing you really need to know to determine how a stock has performed in 2020 is by looking at its market cap. Granted, there might be a little double counting going on because I’m measuring from today, not from Jan 1, but I’m nearly certain that the numbers wouldn’t change much at all.

It’s normal to worry about the market when fewer and fewer stocks are leading the charge, but this is not a new worry, we’ve been talking about this for years

I know this is the type of thing that doesn’t matter until it matters, but we should also consider an alternate outcome. What if a handful of the other 94% of stocks catch up? I’m not predicting that, but it’s an outcome that we have to at least be open minded to.

It’s always important to look beyond individual data points, because facts don’t always tell the whole story.

 https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2020/08/20/the-other-94/

4. Global companies raise most funds for the month of August in a decade

Scott Murdoch, Patturaja Murugaboopathy

(Reuters) – Companies raised the most funds in global equity and debt markets for the month of August in a decade as homebound bankers spend their summer fixing deals off the back of trillions of dollars of stimulus worldwide to fight the coronavirus pandemic.

Companies have raised $65.5 billion through initial public offerings (IPOs) and high-yield bond issuances globally so far in August, the highest for that month in at least 10 years, according to Refinitiv data. They raised $98.6 billion in July and $126.5 billion in June, which was the highest in 20 years.

Graphic: Monthly global IPO proceeds here

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-markets-global-fundraising/global-companies-raise-most-funds-for-the-month-of-august-in-a-decade-idUSKBN25K15H

Found at Crossing Wall Street blog http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/

5. The Growth Rate of U.S. Debt Outpacing WWII

We Have Crossed the Line Debt Hawks Warned Us About for Decades—

The debt of the United States now exceeds the size of its gross domestic product. That was considered a doomsday scenario that would wreck the economy. So far, that hasn’t happened

“At this stage, I think, nobody is very worried about debt,” said Olivier Blanchard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund. “It’s clear that we can probably go where we are going, which is debt ratios above 100 percent in many countries. And that’s not the end of the world.”

That nonchalant attitude toward what were once thought to be major breaking points reflects an evolution in the way investors, economists and central bankers think about government debt.

At the end of last year, the United States was about $17 trillion in debt — roughly 80 percent of the gross domestic product. In January, government analysts predicted that debt would approach 100 percent of the G.D.P. around 2030. But by the end of June, the debt stood at $20.53 trillion, or roughly 106 percent of G.D.P., which shrank amid widespread stay-at-home orders. (These numbers don’t count trillions more the government owes itself in bonds held by the Social Security and Medicare trust funds.)

That more than 25 percentage-point surge would represent the largest annual leap in American indebtedness since Alexander Hamilton founded the nation’s credit in the 1790s, outpacing even the debt growth at the peak of World War II, according to data from the Congressional Budget Office.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/21/business/economy/national-debt-coronavirus-stimulus.html?auth=login-email&login=email

6. Tech vs. Dividend Growers 15 Year Chart

So it’s no surprise that the tech-heavy S&P 500 has been outperforming the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats for many years. But if you look back 15 years, the story changes:

Over 15 years, the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index has beaten the performance of the full S&P 500 Index.

 FACTSET

These ‘Dividend Aristocrat’ stocks have been raising their dividends for decades, and there have been no dividend cuts during the pandemic By Philip van Doorn

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-dividend-aristocrat-stocks-have-been-raising-their-dividends-for-decades-and-there-have-been-no-dividend-cuts-during-the-pandemic-2020-08-25?mod=newsviewer_click

7. Disney Leads Old Media Giants in Making Money From Streaming

Christopher Palmeri

Disney Leads Old Media Giants in Making Money From Streaming

(Bloomberg) — Online video is becoming a serious business for some of America’s oldest and largest media companies, with Walt Disney Co. leading the pack.

Disney will generate an estimated $11.2 billion in direct-to-consumer revenue this year, according to a report released Monday by Macquarie Research. That would account for 19% of its total sales — a level rivals in traditional media haven’t matched.

Macquarie credits Disney+, which quickly snapped up more than 60 million subscribers, and Hulu, a business that the company gained majority control of last year.

Fox Corp. and Comcast Corp. are the new-media laggards in the old-media group. Fox sold the bulk of its entertainment assets to Disney last year, and Comcast is just getting started in streaming: Its ad-supported Peacock service debuted nationally last month.

The big surprise, however, may be Lions Gate Entertainment Corp., which will get 18% of revenue from streaming this year, according to Macquarie. Lions Gate said recently that it had over 11 million online customers for its Starz service globally.

Analysts expect Netflix Inc. to generate almost $25 billion in revenue this year, virtually all of it from streaming.

For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com

Subscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.

 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/disney-leads-old-media-giants-191812649.html

8.  50% of U.S. Households Have Less Than $1000 Saved.

 

CHART OF THE DAY: Households Were Not Prepared For An Income Shock Keith McCullough @keithmcculloughhttps://app.hedgeye.com/insights/88256-chart-of-the-day-households-were-not-prepared-for-an-income-shock?type=macro%2Cmarket-insights

9. Betting on Return to Workplace

Erica Pandey, author of @Work

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

As the pandemic has persisted, Silicon Valley tech giants have extended their telework timelines — and some have even said that employees can stay home forever. But now those same firms are simultaneously betting on the future of the office.

Why it matters: Remote work has been successful at many firms, but the vast majority still have strong office cultures. The pandemic won’t drastically alter that.

• “COVID changed a lot of minds,” says Julie Whelan, of the commercial real estate firm CBRE. “That said, there are billions of square feet leased across the United States, and that’s not disappearing overnight.”

What’s happening: Office leasing activity in the second quarter of 2020 was down 44% year-over-year, CBRE reports. But it appears to be bouncing back, led by the tech titans.

• Amazon is adding 900,000 square feet of office space in New York City, Phoenix, Dallas, Detroit, San Diego and Denver. And Facebook is expanding its New York footprint with 730,000 additional square feet in midtown Manhattan.
• Amazon is also in the middle of building two large complexes to complement its Seattle headquarters. Its Hyderabad, India, building is 1.8 million square feet, and its Arlington, Virginia, campus — HQ2 — could be as big as 8 million square feet.

The tech giants’ bets on the importance of the office appear to be shared by other big firms.

• Per a CBRE survey of 126 companies, half of which are Fortune 500 firms, 70% are confident in setting long-term real estate strategies even amid the pandemic.
• 79% say the importance of the physical office will decrease slightly or remain the same when the coronavirus crisis is over.
• And teleworkers across the country say they’ve developed an appreciation for the workplaces they once griped about.

But, but, but: While the pandemic won’t kill offices, its effects on where and how we work will linger.

• Look for many companies to pursue a hybrid of work-from-home and work-from-office. 61% of CBRE’s respondents say employees will be able to work remotely at least part of the time in the post-pandemic world.
• That means those firms won’t need as much space, and many will downsize.

The bottom line: “We’re changing why we need an office: It’s the social interaction,” Whelan says. “That doesn’t need to happen five days a week. But it still needs to happen.”

• As Jerry Seinfeld writes in his defense of New York City, “Energy, attitude and personality cannot be ‘remoted’ through even the best fiber optic lines.”

https://www.axios.com/workplace-office-telework-remote-coronavirus-41785f8e-c4f0-482e-b76d-55e4ae1615f2.html

 10. Ten Things You Do That Make You Less Likable

Too many people succumb to the mistaken belief that being likable comes from natural traits that belong only to a lucky few. Dr. Travis Bradberry shows you how being likable is under your control.

BY TRAVIS BRADBERRY, AUTHOR, EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE 2.0@TALENTSMARTEQ

Getty Images

Too many people succumb to the mistaken belief that being likable comes from natural, unteachable traits that belong only to a lucky few–the good looking, the fiercely social, and the incredibly talented. It’s easy to fall prey to this misconception. In reality, being likable is under your control, and it’s a matter of emotional intelligence (EQ).

In a study conducted at UCLA, subjects rated over 500 descriptions of people based on their perceived significance to likability. The top-rated descriptors had nothing to do with being gregarious, intelligent, or attractive (innate characteristics). Instead, the top descriptors were sincerity, transparency, and capable of understanding (another person).

These adjectives, and others like them, describe people who are skilled in the social side of emotional intelligence. TalentSmart research data from more than a million people shows that people who possess these skills aren’t just highly likable; they outperform those who don’t by a large margin.

Likability is so powerful that it can completely alter your performance. A University of Massachusetts study found that managers were willing to accept an auditor’s argument with no supporting evidence if he or she was likable, and Jack Zenger found that just one in 2,000 unlikable leaders are considered effective.

I did some digging to uncover the key behaviors that hold people back when it comes to likability. Make certain these behaviors don’t catch you by surprise.

1. Humble-bragging. We all know those people who like to brag about themselves behind the mask of self-deprecation. For example, the gal who makes fun of herself for being a nerd when she really wants to draw attention to the fact that she’s smart, or the guy who makes fun of himself for having a strict diet when he really wants you to know how healthy and fit he is. While many people think that self-deprecation masks their bragging, everyone sees right through it. This makes the bragging all the more frustrating, because it isn’t just bragging; it’s also an attempt to deceive.

2. Being too serious. People gravitate toward those who are passionate. That said, it’s easy for passionate people to come across as too serious or uninterested, because they tend to get absorbed in their work. Likable people balance their passion for their work with their ability to have fun. At work they are serious, yet friendly. They still get things done because they are socially effective in short amounts of time and they capitalize on valuable social moments. They focus on having meaningful interactions with their co-workers, remembering what people said to them yesterday or last week, which shows people that they are just as important to them as their work is.

3. Not asking enough questions. The biggest mistake people make in conversation is being so focused on what they’re going to say next or how what the other person is saying is going to affect them that they fail to hear what’s being said. The words come through loud and clear, but the meaning is lost. A simple way to avoid this is to ask a lot of questions. People like to know you’re listening, and something as simple as a clarification question shows that not only are you listening, but you also care about what they’re saying. You’ll be surprised how much respect and appreciation you gain just by asking questions.

4. Emotional hijackings. My company provides 360° feedback assessments, and we come across far too many instances of people throwing things, screaming, making people cry, and other telltale signs of an emotional hijacking. An emotional hijacking demonstrates low emotional intelligence. As soon as you show that level of instability, people will question whether or not you’re trustworthy and capable of keeping it together when it counts.

Exploding at anyone, regardless of how much they might “deserve it,” turns a huge amount of negative attention your way. You’ll be labeled as unstable, unapproachable, and intimidating. Controlling your emotions keeps you in the driver’s seat. When you’re able to control your emotions around someone who wrongs you, they end up looking bad instead of you.

5. Whipping out your phone. Nothing turns someone off to you like a mid-conversation text message or even a quick glance at your phone. When you commit to a conversation, focus all of your energy on the conversation. You’ll find that conversations are more enjoyable and effective when you immerse yourself in them.

6. Name-dropping. It’s great to know important and interesting people, but using every conversation as an opportunity to name drop is pretentious and silly. Just like humble-bragging, people see right through it. Instead of making you look interesting, it makes people feel as though you’re insecure and overly concerned with having them like you. It also cheapens what you have to offer. When you connect everything you know with who you know (instead of what you know or what you think), conversations lose their color.

People are averse to those who are desperate for attention. Simply being friendly and considerate is all you need to win people over. When you speak in a friendly, confident, and concise manner, people are much more attentive and persuadable than if you try to show them that you’re important. People catch on to your attitude quickly and are more attracted to the right attitude than who you know.

7. Gossiping. People make themselves look terrible when they get carried away with gossiping. Wallowing in talk of other people’s misdeeds or misfortunes may end up hurting their feelings if the gossip ever finds its way to them, but gossiping is guaranteed to make you look negative and spiteful every time.

8. Having a closed mind. If you want to be likable, you must be open-minded, which makes you approachable and interesting to others. No one wants to have a conversation with someone who has already formed an opinion and is unwilling to listen. Having an open mind is crucial in the workplace, where approachability means access to new ideas and help. To eliminate preconceived notions and judgment, you need to see the world through other people’s eyes. This doesn’t require that you believe what they believe or condone their behavior; it simply means that you quit passing judgment long enough to truly understand what makes them tick.

9. Sharing too much, too early. While getting to know people requires a healthy amount of sharing, sharing too much about yourself right off the bat comes across wrong. Be careful to avoid sharing personal problems and confessions too quickly. Likable people let the other person guide them as to when it’s the right time for them to open up. Over-sharing comes across as self-obsessed and insensitive to the balance of the conversation. Think of it this way: If you’re getting into the nitty-gritty of your life without learning about the other person first, you’re sending the message that you see them as nothing more than a sounding board for your problems.

10. Sharing too much on social media. Studies have shown that people who over-share on social media do so because they crave acceptance, but the Pew Research Center has revealed that this over-sharing works against them by making people dislike them. Sharing on social media can be an important mode of expression, but it needs to be done thoughtfully and with some self-control. Letting everyone know what you ate for breakfast, lunch, and dinner, along with how many times you walked your dog today, will do much more harm than good when it comes to likability.

Bringing It All Together

When you build your awareness of how your actions are received by other people, you pave the way to becoming more likable.

What other things make people less likable? Please share your thoughts in the comments section, as I learn just as much from you as you do from me.

https://www.inc.com/travis-bradberry/10-things-you-do-that-make-you-less-likeable.html?cid=sf01003&sr_share=facebook

Shopify Founder: These Are the 2 Books That Made Me Into a Billionaire

Tobias Lütke credits these two books with transforming him from an awkward programmer into a successful leader. 

BY JESSICA STILLMAN, CONTRIBUTOR, INC.COM@ENTRYLEVELREBEL

Tobias Lutke, CEO and co-founder of Shopify. Getty Images

Some billionaire business success stories got where they are on personal charm, salesmanship, and communication chops. Others were quiet, reserved “nerds” who just managed to build a product so awesome it took off like a rocket ship, forcing them to figure out the people side of business on the fly.

Shopify co-founder Tobias Lütke is solidly in the second camp. A programmer by trade, Lütke had no intention of having anything to do with the business side of Shopify, the Canadian startup he co-founded and which has since become an e-commerce juggernaut. But then, as he explained on Tim Ferriss’s podcast, circumstance intervened and he found himself needing to grow into a leader capable of scaling his startup, and fast.

He decided to source some reading that would arm him with the skills he needed. As he shares with Ferriss (hat tip to this excellent post by Alan Trapulionis), that process of soliciting recommendations ended up yielding two titles. Lütke credits them with teaching him the skills to build a billion-dollar business (as well as a multibillion-dollar net worth).

1. Influence by Robert Cialdini

“Influence was just the most mind-bending book you can imagine, because it essentially taught you all the ways humans are flawed and influenceable, and how, yes, computers are predictable, but once you make things for people you need to go into storytelling,” says Lütke.

“Which was news to me, frankly. I spent my teens with computers. Not with people,” he adds to laughs from Ferriss.

An international bestseller when it was first published in 1984, Influence remains a foundational work on the science of persuasion, so Lütke is far from the only brilliant-but-awkward young striver Cialdini has helped. If you’re looking for a quick summary of the book’s basic ideas, Trapulionis’s post has a useful rundown.

2. High Output Management by Andrew Grove

“One of the best books ever,” raves Lütke of this second classic by the former CEO of Intel, describing High Output Management as “a how-to manual that deconstructs the world of business into first principles. It’s like, here’s what matters. Here’s how to think about it.” By laying out building a business like an engineering exercise, Grove’s book made the whole challenge far less daunting, Lütke claims.

He’s not the only nerdy young entrepreneur riding a startup rocket ship to benefit from the legendary title. Mark Zuckerberg also claims the “book played a big role in shaping my management style.”

If you, too, are intimidated by the less technical aspects of building a business, it might be worth picking up these books. Who knows? They might even help you create a billion-dollar company too.

AUG 24, 2020

The opinions expressed here by Inc.com columnists are their own, not those of Inc.com.

https://www.inc.com/jessica-stillman/shopify-tobias-lutke-andrew-grove.html?cid=sf01003

Disclosure

Lansing Street Advisors is a registered investment adviser with the State of Pennsylvania..
To the extent that content includes references to securities, those references do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or hold such security as information is provided for educational purposes only. Articles should not be considered investment advice and the information contain within should not be relied upon in assessing whether or not to invest in any securities or asset classes mentioned. Articles have been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Securities discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Please keep in mind that a company’s past financial performance, including the performance of its share price, does not guarantee future results.
Material compiled by Lansing Street Advisors is based on publicly available data at the time of compilation. Lansing Street Advisors makes no warranties or representation of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to the use such data.
Material for market review represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results.
Indices that may be included herein are unmanaged indices and one cannot directly invest in an index. Index returns do not reflect the impact of any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. The index information included herein is for illustrative purposes only.

1.Tech Saw Revenue Growth Q2 2020.

From Nasdaq Dorsey Wright  www.dorseywright.com

2. Two Charts on International Valuations From Invesco.

3. Global Stocks vs. S&P 500

https://twitter.com/CiovaccoCapital

4. Dow Industrials Kicks Out Exxon in Biggest Shake-Up Since 2013..Out with Energy in with Cloud.

Sarah Ponczek and Katherine Greifeld

Dow Industrials Kicks Out Exxon in Biggest Shake-Up Since 2013

More

(Bloomberg) — Exxon Mobil Corp, Pfizer Inc. and Raytheon Technologies Corp. were kicked out of the Dow Jones Industrial Average as part of the stock benchmark’s biggest reshuffling in seven years, actions that will boost the influence of technology companies that have dominated the 2020 stock market.

Salesforce.com, Amgen Inc. and Honeywell International will enter the 124-year old equity gauge a week from today, its overseers said. The moves were prompted when Apple Inc.’s stock split effectively reduced the sway of computer and softward stocks in the price-weighted average.

While any change to the Dow is notable, the ejection of Exxon Mobil — the world’s biggest company as recently as 2011 — marks a particularly stunning fall from grace, reflecting the decline of commodity companies in the American economy. Worth $525 billion in 2007 and more than $450 billion as recently 2014, the stock had fallen in four of six years before 2020 and is down another 40% since January.

“Those changes are a sign of the times – out with energy and in with cloud,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance.

The latest reshuffling is more testament to the ascent of technology companies, a trend amplified by this year’s Covid 19 lockdowns. While the Dow average is still 4.2% off its February record, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is almost 20% above the pre-pandemic all-time high.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dow-industrials-kicks-exxon-biggest-220032220.html

5.  4 Out of 5 Working Age Households Have Retirement Savings of Less Than 1x Annual Income

Zerohedge

Lastly, only 4-0ut-of-5 working-age households have retirement savings of less than one times their annual income. This does not bode well for the sustainability of living standards in the “golden years.”

The 4% Rule Is Dead. What Should Retirees Do Now? https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/4-rule-dead-what-should-retirees-do-now

6.  The Big Short on Malls.

‘The Big Short 2.0’: How Hedge Funds Profited Off the Pain of Malls–As the pandemic accelerated the demise of some brick-and-mortar retailers, a group of investors profited handsomely from their travails.

The CMBX 6 index is intended to track a basket of bond products, each of which contains bundles of individual mortgages to commercial borrowers, more than 2,000 in total. Those products are then sliced into brackets, known as tranches, and assigned credit ratings ranging from AAA to BB, according to their perceived level of risk.

The CMBX 6, which tracks the performance of mortgages issued in 2012, has been a target for short-sellers because of its relatively strong exposure to malls. According to an analysis by Trepp, 40 percent of the property loans tracked by the CMBX 6 are in the retail sector, giving it the highest exposure to retailers of any CMBX index. (The balance of the mortgages are in the lodging, residential, office and industrial sectors.) Of the retail mortgages the CMBX 6 tracks, 39 are in American malls, many of which have 10-year mortgages coming due in 2022.

Deer Park Road’s Mr. Burg, who specializes in complicated bond investments and said his firm had done well by betting heavily on risky home borrowers in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, adopted the mall short before the virus hit. His research suggested similarities between the lax way that home loans were signed in the run-up to the last crisis and the underwriting of many retail mortgages. He also thought there were too many malls.

By the middle of May, the portion of the CMBX 6 with a BBB– rating, which had begun the year trading strongly but was especially popular with short-sellers, had fallen more than 30 points. It has recovered only a few points since then.

“It’s an absolute perfect storm, unfortunately, for the commercial real estate market,” Mr. Burg said. “We see very little that the Fed or government can possibly do to prop this up when there’s so much excess supply.”

Scott Burg of the Deer Park Road fund compared the underwriting of many retail mortgages to the way home loans were approved before the 2008 financial crisis.Credit…Caleb Santiago Alvarado for The New York Times

To short any CMBX index — there are 13, each tied to a different origination year for commercial mortgages — investors pay various fees, including an annual amount to hold what is essentially an insurance policy that pays out if the mortgages the index tracks default. Those fees might be $300,000 to $500,000 a year for every $10 million of insurance the investor wants to hold.

Before making their bets, some investors who shorted the CMBX indexes engaged in labor-intensive research. Mr. Mudrick and his analysts walked all 39 malls in the CMBX 6 index, from the Northridge Fashion Center in Los Angeles to the Town Center at Cobb in Kennesaw, Ga. Wearing casual clothes, his group paced the perimeters and food courts, snapping photographs and taking notes.

7. New York and San Fran Only Places Where Home Inventory Increasing

John Burns

https://www.linkedin.com/in/johnburns7/

8. Boise ID Turning into Brooklyn.

People are flocking to Idaho during the pandemic. I spent 4 days in its capital city last fall, and a walk through downtown made it clear why it’s so popular.

Katie Warren 

Boise is having a moment. Katie Warren/Business Insider

Everybody wants to live in Idaho right now.

While states like New York and California have seen mass exoduses during the pandemic, others have seen a more people moving in than out. In Idaho, 194% more people moved in than left the state since March, according to data from moving marketplace HireAHelper.

Well before the pandemic, its capital city was experiencing a major growth spurt. Forbes named Boise the fastest-growing city in the US in 2018. Its population grew by 18.2% from 2010 to 2018, and by more than 3% from 2017 to 2018.

Most out-of-state transplants have been coming from California, primarily from the Los Angeles metro area. Almost 80,000 people moved to Idaho in 2018, and more than 21,000 of them were from California, according to US Census data.

According to locals, people are finally figuring out how great of a place Boise is to live. In 2019, Boise was named the best place to live for millennials, as well as the best US city to buy a house.

Last November, I spent four days in Boise exploring the city and talking to business owners and residents. As someone who lives in Brooklyn and works in Manhattan, I was curious to get a feel for Boise’s downtown and see what kind of lifestyle it offers for big-city transplants. After four days, I can, for starters, say this: Boise does not disappoint.

Keep reading for a look at its vibrant downtown area, which is bustling with breweries, farm-to-table restaurants, coffee shops, and new luxury apartments.

Boise, the capital of Idaho, is one of the fastest-growing cities in the US.

Katie Warren/Business Insider

Boise saw an 18.2% population jump from 2010 to 2018 and was the fastest-growing city in the country from 2017 to 2018, according to Forbes.

Roughly 25% of out-of-state transplants in Boise came from California, followed by Washington, Utah, Oregon, and Texas, according to the Boise Valley Economic Partnership’s marketing manager.

While many welcome Boise’s growth, some say the influx of new residents is pricing out longtime locals. The average home price in Boise jumped almost 12% from 2017 to 2018, and average rent has increased by roughly 7% in the past year. But wages haven’t kept up, leaving many residents struggling to afford their living costs.

Some also say the growth has brought with it big-city-like traffic.

https://www.businessinsider.com/boise-idaho-downtown-breweries-coffee-shops-restaurants-2019-11

9. These schools have the largest endowments in the country — yet they’re still raising tuition during the COVID pandemic

By Jillian Berman

A MarketWatch analysis indicates that many colleges are going forward with planned tuition increases this year

In this photo provided by Jason Koski, Bryan Maley, right, a graduate student in the Master of Public Health program at Cornell University, interviews a student on campus about mask-wearing experiences as part of a public health survey, Friday, July 30, 2020, in Ithaca, N.Y. (Photo: Jason Koski/Cornell University via AP)

Christian Baran has been thinking about the value his college tuition is supposed to be buying since the spring.

Baran, 21, was a sophomore at Cornell University when the school, like most others, rushed students home and into online classrooms in March as the reality of the pandemic began to set in. Baran thought his family might get some sort of tuition refund, given that the experience was so different from what he thought his tuition was buying.

“But we didn’t get anything,” Baran said. Like almost every college in the country, Cornell didn’t give back any tuition money, but the school did provide rebates for housing and dining contracts.

Now, as the start of the fall semester at the school approaches, the school is moving forward with a planned tuition increase of 3.6% that was approved in January before the pandemic. Cornell, which is planning to bring students back to Ithaca and offer some in-person classes, is expecting to increase the amount of financial aid it awards, and will be drawing more than typical from its endowment in fiscal year 2021 to generate an additional $15 million.

Still, it’s not enough for Baran. “It seems ridiculous to keep paying the same amount for what seems to be an inferior hybridized education,” he said. And that’s a best-case scenario, assuming the school doesn’t end up shifting completely to remote instruction, as some have already done.

So instead of paying Cornell tuition, Baran decided to enroll in community college for the fall semester and hopefully return to Cornell in the spring. “I don’t think that it’s worth it,” he said.

Cornell is one of at least 39 U.S. institutions whose endowments are in the top 100, that is going ahead with a planned tuition increase for undergraduates this upcoming academic year, according to a MarketWatch analysis. We found that 35 others are planning to keep tuition the same as last year and five are discounting tuition from previously announced levels. (Of the other institutions in the top 100 endowments, four are based in Canada, four are institutions serving only graduate students and several did not provide the requested information by press time. We will update when we hear back).

Colleges’ tuition policies for the fall

Some schools are cutting tuition, while others are moving forward with planned increases. See the full list here:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/at-many-schools-college-will-cost-more-than-last-year-despite-covid-disruptions-11598262606?mod=home-page

10. The Simplest Ways To Make The Best Of Your Life.

https://www.pinterest.com/pin/422281201654500/

Disclosure

Lansing Street Advisors is a registered investment adviser with the State of Pennsylvania..
To the extent that content includes references to securities, those references do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or hold such security as information is provided for educational purposes only. Articles should not be considered investment advice and the information contain within should not be relied upon in assessing whether or not to invest in any securities or asset classes mentioned. Articles have been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Securities discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Please keep in mind that a company’s past financial performance, including the performance of its share price, does not guarantee future results.
Material compiled by Lansing Street Advisors is based on publicly available data at the time of compilation. Lansing Street Advisors makes no warranties or representation of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to the use such data.
Material for market review represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results.
Indices that may be included herein are unmanaged indices and one cannot directly invest in an index. Index returns do not reflect the impact of any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. The index information included herein is for illustrative purposes only.

1. Hottest Momentum ETF in U.S. is QMOM

(Alpha Architects)  https://alphaarchitect.com/

QMOM +26% vs. MTUM +15.5% vs. SPY +5%

www.yahoofinance.com

Concentrated MO MO  50 Holdings

https://etfdb.com/etf/QMOM/#holdings

2. Five Year Inflation Expectations Well Off Bottom

Markets were paying close attention to minutes from the Fed’s recent meeting due later in the day for any hints on what the Fed could announce in September – Some investors speculated the Fed will adopt an average inflation target, which would seek to push inflation above 2% for some time.

The $20 trillion U.S. Treasury market is giving the Federal Reserve a thumbs-up for its efforts to revive inflation after the coronavirus pandemic threatened to inflict a damaging bout of deflation on the U.S. economy – The best measure of that is inflation-adjusted interest rates on 10-year Treasury bonds, which have plunged well below zero as nominal yields held fairly steady. Other signs of success include rising expectations for future prices among U.S. households

Dave Lutz at Jones Trading

3. Utilities Dividend Vs. 10 Year at 25 Year High.

Liz Ann Sonders-Schwabhttps://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders

Utilities Still Well Below Highs

www.stockcharts.com

4. I Agree with Ben Carlson…The Chart Almost Looks Fake….TSLA

https://twitter.com/awealthofcs/status/1296100869998616582/photo/1

5. Gold at Historically High Levels in Real (Inflation Adjusted) Terms

Larry Swedroe

As you can see in the following table, the recent rally in gold has it trading at historically high levels in real terms.

How important is the real price of gold in terms of future returns? In their 2015 study “ The Golden Dilemma,” Claude Erb and Campbell Harvey found that “the real price of gold was a more important driver of future nominal and real gold returns than the realized rate of inflation.” With that in mind, is now a good time to buy gold? Erb, Harvey, and Tadas Viskanta, authors of the August 2020 paper “ Gold, the Golden Constant, COVID-19, ‘Massive Passives’ and Déjà Vu,” analyzed the historical evidence to help investors determine the answer to that question.

Now Might Not Be A Good Time To Buy Gold  https://seekingalpha.com/article/4369361-now-might-not-be-good-time-to-buy-gold

6. Millennials Not Going for Big Oil Careers

By Rebecca Elliott-WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-industry-frets-about-recruiting-its-next-generation-of-workers-11597763882?mod=itp_wsj&ru=yahoo

7. Number of Patents Issued Since 1999 Has Doubled.

Jim OShaughnessy

Tweets by jposhaughnessy

8. Lots of Good News on Housing Starts But We Are Seeing Spike in Mortgage Delinquencies.

Adam Tooze, @adam_tooze

Mortgage delinquencies spiked in the second quarter. As the unemployment crisis deepens, will the surge continue? Data from the invaluable

@SoberLook, https://thedailyshot.com/2020/08/18/the-ongoing-shift-to-suburbia-in-search-of-home-office-and-classroom/

https://twitter.com/adam_tooze/status/1295757939018358784/photo/1

9.Your Mortgage Refinance Could Cost Thousands More Thanks To New Fee

Natalie Campisi, Forbes Staff

Refinancing is set to get more expensive this fall. A new fee, known as the “adverse market refinance fee” (Fannie Mae) or the “market condition credit fee” (Freddie Mac), will be assessed to most refinance mortgage loans sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac starting Sept. 1. The fee is a flat 0.5% or 50 basis points of the total loan amount, adding hundreds or even thousands of dollars to the cost of a refinance.

The new fee comes at a time when mortgage rates are falling to record-breaking lows and refinance activity is on the rise. Mortgage refinance activity last week was up by 9% from the prior week and was 47% higher than the same time last year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending Aug. 7, 2020.

The reason for the fee is to offset higher risk due to a shaky economy, both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac said in bulletins issued Wednesday night. Most refinances, including cash-out refinances, would be subject to the fee. 

“As a result of risk management and loss forecasting precipitated by COVID-19 related economic and market uncertainty, we are introducing a new Market Condition Credit Fee in Price,” according to a statement by Freddie Mac.

New Fee Runs Counter to Fed’s Efforts to Keep Costs Down

For a borrower refinancing a $350,000 mortgage, the fee would tack on an additional $1,750. For someone with twice that mortgage, the fee would add $3,500 on a $700,000 refinance.

PROMOTED

Grads of Life BRANDVOICE | Paid Program

5 Ways Employers Can Support Black Employees: A Young Leader’s Advice

For some, this fee is counterproductive to efforts the Federal Reserve has made since the start of the pandemic to encourage lending activity while making loans affordable by keeping mortgage interest rates low.

“The housing market has been able to withstand many of the most severe effects of the COVID-19 pandemic,” MBA President Bob Broeksmit said in a statement. “The recent refinance activity has not only helped homeowners lower their monthly payments, but it is also reducing risk to the (government-sponsored enterprises) and taxpayers. At a time when the Federal Reserve is purchasing $40 billion in agency (mortgage-backed securities) per month to help reduce financing costs for mortgage borrowers to support the broader economy, this action raises those costs and undermines the Federal Reserve’s policy.”

Fee Also Applies to Most Specialty Loan Refinance Programs 

Both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have loan programs designed to help a wide variety of borrowers in need. These programs have caps on the total amount of fees that can be assessed, however, the new adverse market refinance fee would apply to all of these programs, regardless of the cap:

·         Fannie Mae’s HomeReady refinance program is designed for borrowers facing financial challenges, and its high loan-to-value (LTV) refinance program offers a chance for borrowers making on-time payments to refinance their mortgages even if their LTV exceeds the maximum for standard cash-out refinances. 

·         Freddie Mac’s Home Possible mortgage refinance program is for low-income homeowners, and its Enhanced Relief Refinance mortgage program was created for borrowers who can’t refinance because of a drop in property values. 

The only loans that are exempt from the new fee are home loans that qualify for single-closing interim construction financing and permanent financing, which is one mortgage for borrowers who are building new homes. This end-to-end loan covers buying the land, through the construction phase into the permanent home loan.

What You Should Do If You Want to Refinance

Despite the new fee, some borrowers will still be able to save money on their monthly mortgage payments, as well as the total interest paid on their loans, by refinancing. Mortgage rates are currently tracking below 3%, which puts nearly 18 million people in line to save money by refinancing, according to Black Knight, a mortgage technology, data and analytics provider.

Along with the new fee announced on Wednesday, there are closing costs that should be factored into your decision. Typically, these costs are about 2% to 3% of your total loan amount. Closing costs usually include title and insurance fees, appraisals, application fees and, in some areas, attorney fees. 

Other things to consider before you refinance is whether you plan on moving. If you’re going to sell your home within a few years, you likely won’t save enough money refinancing to make up for the amount you spend in closing fees. 

Finally, make sure your credit score is high enough to snag the interest rate you need to save money. Although many lenders are advertising sub-3% rates on 30- and 15-year mortgage refinances, usually only borrowers with above average credit scores (in the 700 and above range) will qualify.

Follow me on Twitter or LinkedIn. Send me a secure tip. 

Natalie Campisi

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tmobile/2020/08/13/mobility-with-a-conscience-how-seattle-goodwill-gives-marginalized-communities-hope-in-a-pandemic

10. Ten habits of bad management

 Image from Shutterstock.com

200

Jan 282019by Andre de WaalPrint This Article

If you’re looking to run a high-performance organization, you need to be able to be able to recognize the signs of bad management. If low-performing managers are not dealt with, an organization will never be able to become excellent. Here are ten habits to look out for that no organization should put up with:

Bad managers clean up the mess of their predecessors – even when there is no mess.

When appointed in a new position, the bad manager claims that the predecessor has made such a big mess of the department that it will take at least one year, if not more, to get everything in order, and of course the bad manager cannot possibly work yet on achieving the departmental targets this year…maybe next year too.

Bad managers are always busy, busy, busy

They are involved in many, many projects; in fact, they’re so busy that there isn’t enough time to work on regular tasks! And because these projects are vital for the success of the organization (or so they say), bad managers cannot possibly be expected to work on their departmental targets. They will get to that when their other projects are finished…which they never are.

Bad managers know how to play the goals game

They know that departmental goals should be loose, with lots of slack, which means the targets will be very easy to achieve. Bad managers will never get optimal results from their departments; but that doesn’t matter to them, bad managers would rather have low performance than run the risk of punishment for falling short of ambitious targets.

Bad managers only manage from a distance

Bad managers love to use performance indicators because these make it possible to practice hands-off management. This in turn makes it easy for bad managers to avoid the day to day department activities altogether. And of course, if anything goes wrong, they can dodge accountability: they weren’t there, after all!

Bad managers always blame somebody else

Bad managers have a host of excuses at their disposal when they don’t achieve departmental targets. They blame the management reports because these do not accurately reflect performance; their own reports show that they did achieve the targets.

Bad managers blame the outside world: the economy was going down, it has rained too much, it hasn’t rained enough, whatever – but that is the reason everything was going against the department and therefore it was just impossible to achieve the targets! Next year, they say, will be better. They blame the weakest colleague, it was his or her fault the department floundered. So the organization first needs to hire someone new before they can be expected to work on achieving their targets.

Bad managers make lengthy, impressive plans

When writing up the latest game plan, bad managers know that expansive, wordy, and complex plans always impress top management because it gives the impression that they are on top of their game and have thought of everything.

They also know that you can bury all kinds of assumptions and preconditions in these verbose plans, which function as safeguards when top management starts complaining that goals have not been achieved (“Well, you knew that could happen, we put it on page 237, section 3, line 5 …”).

An additional advantage is that employees will not read nor understand these, so it will take a lot of time before the department can actually start working on realizing the plan, if ever.

Bad managers only communicate in one way

Bad managers are all capable of holding an open forum for employees to voice concerns, questions, and suggestions. This sounds like the mark of a good manager, right? However, the bad manager only feigns interest in employee feedback, and won’t actually act on what he or she hears. Instead, bad managers stick to their own plans. If people complain, the bad manager will use open forums against the participants, claiming that any incompetency is the fault of everyone.

Bad managers only have eyes for the shareholder

Bad managers know who butters their bread: the shareholder. Therefore, bad managers work diligently on satisfying these shareholders, even it this works to the detriment of the organization’s long-term interests.

Bad managers are real Machiavellians

They have Machiavelli’s book, The Prince from 1513 on their bedside table and turn to it often for advice on how to practice effective “divide and conquer” strategies: manipulating colleagues, employees and bosses. As a result, the targeted members in the organization become preoccupied with guarding their backs instead of focusing on growing the department.

Bad managers have an exit strategy

When the organization is on the verge of holding a bad manager accountable for his or her (in)actions, the bad manager moves on to another organization. In fact, the bad manager had plotted his or her exit strategy for a long time, and always has a fall-back organization where he could flee.

It goes without saying that these ten habits don’t exist in HPOs! But as most organizations are not HPO yet, it is good for you to be able to recognize the signs of bad management. This way you can deal with these ‘bad managers’ quickly…which is, after all, also a characteristic of a HPO manag

https://www.management-issues.com/opinion/6398/ten-habits-of-bad-management/

Disclosure

Lansing Street Advisors is a registered investment adviser with the State of Pennsylvania..
To the extent that content includes references to securities, those references do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or hold such security as information is provided for educational purposes only. Articles should not be considered investment advice and the information contain within should not be relied upon in assessing whether or not to invest in any securities or asset classes mentioned. Articles have been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Securities discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Please keep in mind that a company’s past financial performance, including the performance of its share price, does not guarantee future results.
Material compiled by Lansing Street Advisors is based on publicly available data at the time of compilation. Lansing Street Advisors makes no warranties or representation of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to the use such data.
Material for market review represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results.
Indices that may be included herein are unmanaged indices and one cannot directly invest in an index. Index returns do not reflect the impact of any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. The index information included herein is for illustrative purposes only.