3. Space UFO ETF +41% 6 Months Leading Up to Election
4. Wow! This Might be the Stat of the Year
5. ADBE had NOT Made it Back to Highs Prior to Last Night’s Number
6. IBIT Surpassed $50B Assets in 227 Days
The Daily Shot Brief Cryptocurrency: The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) surpassed $50 billion in assets in just 227 days, achieving this milestone five times faster than the previous record-holder, IEMG, which took 1,323 days. IEFA and VOO reached similar levels in comparable time frames.
CNBC reports that Renaissance Capital IPO ETF (IPO), a basket of recent IPOs, is up 22% this year, many of the companies in that ETF are two years old or more. There simply has not been enough IPOs to repopulate it with newer offerings. There are now only 32 holdings in the ETF, with half that were there two years ago.
IPOs: Total raised
2024 YTD: $28.8 billion
2023: $19.4 billion
2022: $7.7 billion
2021: $142 billion (record)
2020: $78 billion
2019: $46 billion
2018: $47 billion
2017: $35.5 billion
Source: Renaissance Capital
Largest IPOs of 2024 (from IPO price)
Reddit – up 364%
Astera Labs – up 228%
Rubrik – up 112%
UL Solutions – up 80%
OneStream – up 52%
Waystar – up 56%
Ibotta – down 15%
Ingram Micro – down 1%
8. Increased Use of Employee ChatGPT
9. New Hedge Fund Launches Set to Hit 24-Year Low
Via Reuters: New hedge fund launches will ‘likely’ end the year at their lowest in 24 years amid tough fundraising conditions, hedge fund research firm Preqin said on Wednesday, based on numbers from the first three quarters of this year.
By the third quarter of 2024, hedge fund managers opened 123 new funds, the lowest number since at least 2000 when total launches reached 191, Preqin said. Hedge fund debuts peaked at 697 in 2017, according to its data.
4. Will South Korea Follow Japan With Stock Market Reforms
Per Bloomberg, South Korea’s oligarchs have held near unchallenged power over almost every aspect of the economy for half a century. They run the biggest companies, command political clout and engineer arcane business deals that enrich themselves, often at the expense of their shareholders.
Now, regulators and investors are fighting back. And the potential ouster of President Yoon Suk Yeol after his short-lived declaration of martial law is likely to supercharge the process.
5. Equal Weight Tech Index Hitting New Highs
6. U.S. Stocks Are At All-Time High In Global Stock Market Cap
7. Germany: A Country Losing Economic Ground
8. The FED Has Shed 43% Of Its Assets Since 2022 QE
9. U.S. Adults Are Getting Worse At Reading And Math
From Morning Brew: Americans are increasingly flustered by words and numbers, according to a test that measures adult literacy, numeracy, and problem-solving skills in 31 industrialized countries.
The report card revealed an expanding gap between the most and least adept Americans in their ability to handle everyday tasks—from calculating an average to understanding a government email.
See me after class: The 2023 assessment of 4,600 US adults showed:
The share of Americans scoring at the lowest level (1 out of 5) or below in literacy rose to 28% from 19% in 2017.
And 34% scored at the lowest numeracy level or below, compared to 29% six years prior.
That means that over a quarter of Americans can reliably gauge info only from a simple text, while more than a third might struggle to perform tasks beyond basic arithmetic.
But the decline wasn’t even: The 90th percentile score didn’t drop for literacy and numeracy but the 10th percentile score for both decreased.
The US isn’t alone: Average literacy and numeracy scores dropped in 20 and 11 countries, respectively, which some researchers blame on less reading and more scrolling, though some of it could be due to aging populations and language difficulties stemming from increased immigration. Finland ranked No. 1 in both literacy and numeracy, while sharing first place with Japan in problem-solving.
10. MasterClass Is Introducing AI Mentors, Including A Mark Cuban Chatbot
From Inc.: MasterClass is bringing its famous teachers into the AI arena.
The online learning platform known for its wide variety of celebrity instructors is launching MasterClass On Call, a standalone product that will allow customers to chat with AI-powered duplicates of the platform’s teachers. The cost will be $10 per month or $84 per year.
MasterClass founder and CEO David Rogier says the company has been experimenting with the concept of AI versions of its instructors since the launch of OpenAI’s GPT-3 in 2022. He sees the technology as the key to unlocking a feature that MasterClass customers have been requesting for years: the ability to ask its celebrity instructors for advice. Big names like Ray Dalio, Richard Branson, and yes, Mark Cuban, have already inked deals to collaborate with MasterClass on these AI personas.
With the rise of generative AI, Rogier says a shift toward on-demand learning is underway. “If I’m negotiating a business deal, I need advice right now,” he says. “I don’t want to sit through an eight-hour class. Just tell me what to do.”
Subscribers to MasterClass On Call will gain unlimited, on-demand access to a collection of AI personas designed to be artificial mentors. For example, Rogier says that aspiring entrepreneurs could ask Cuban’s AI to help improve a pitch and role-play as a potential investor. Cuban said in a statement that the new product is “going to be an important tool for entrepreneurs and something I’m excited to be a part of.”
In an exclusive demo, Inc. got access to AI versions of sleep expert Matt Walker and Black Swan Group founder and former FBI hostage negotiator Chris Voss, the first two personas currently available in the public beta. The AI voices are remarkably similar to their human counterparts, with natural-sounding cadence and fast response times. When asked for help with a hypothetical salary negotiation, the AI-Voss discussed how to approach the conversation, provided tips on how to strike a balance between confidence and humility, and drafted an initial outreach email.
Future updates will bring new in-development personas, enable the AI mentors to remember previous conversations, and give users the ability to upload documents (like pitch decks) for the AI instructors to review.
Creating these AI mentors is no easy feat. MasterClass chief technology officer Mandar Bapaye says that the company links together “an orchestra of multiple AI models” to handle individual components, like providing the mentors’ knowledge base or transforming text into speech.
The knowledge model is trained on information contained in the mentors’ already-existing MasterClass courses, along with a curated selection of writings and audio recordings. In addition, MasterClass holds extensive interviews with mentors to gather both voice samples and data regarding how they respond to a wide variety of questions. Mentors also give periodic feedback to continuously improve the AI’s performance, like choosing which of two responses to the same question is more accurate to the advice the mentor would actually give.
When MasterClass began internal tests of On Call, Rogier was surprised by how comfortable people were talking to the AI mentors. Early testers felt more comfortable sharing with the AI because they didn’t feel any judgement or pressure to impress anyone. They were empowered to ask the “dumb questions” they might be embarrassed to ask otherwise, says Rogier.
MasterClass On Call is now available in beta with access to Voss’s and Walker’s AI personas. More mentors, including fashion designer and Queer Eye style expert Tan France, superstar chef Gordon Ramsay, and legendary feminist writer Gloria Steinem are expected to be added over the coming months.
Take a look at a short video about the new feature here.
1. WallStreetBets Sentiment Is Back To Its Earlier Highs
Via Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm)
2. Assets In Leveraged Long ETFs Exceed Short Product By Record
3. Momentum Stocks Down 4.4% Yesterday
Sachs has what it calls the “high beta momentum long/short index,” and on Monday that grouping tumbled 6.1%, its worst daily performance since Feb. 2023. Morgan Stanley has its own momentum long index, which fell 4.4%; Bloomberg’s ‘pure momentum’ factor suffered its worst day in two years. The definitions slightly vary but all agreed that momo, as it’s called, was a mess.
4. Best Performing 2024 Stocks Were Down 2.9% Yesterday
If you’ve had a good year so far in the stock market, chances are you had a pretty bad day in the market today. On the surface, today’s action wasn’t awful. The S&P 500 (SPY) was down 0.5% while the Russell 1,000 was down 0.7%. Within the Russell 1,000, the average stock was down even less at -0.33%.
So what’s the big deal? Well, what made today noteworthy was the near-perfect performance distribution based on how stocks had performed so far this year heading into today. In the chart below, we’ve broken up the Russell 1,000 into deciles (10 groups of 100 stocks each) based on YTD stock performance through last Friday. Decile 1 contains the 100 best-performing stocks YTD, decile 2 contains the next best 100, and so on until you get to decile 10, which contains the year’s bottom 10% of performers. In the chart, we show the average performance today of the stocks in each decile. As shown, the decile of the best-performing stocks YTD through last Friday was down 2.9% today, while the decile of the worst-performing stocks YTD was up 2%! As you work your way down from the best decile to the worst, today’s performance gets better and better.
From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading: Mike O’Rourke noted the unwind tied to the Morgan Stanley US Momentum Index. “The Long/Short index had a return of 65% year to date coming into today’s session. The index cratered 6.7% in the first 90 minutes of trading today before settling in for a 5.5% decline on the session. It was the largest single day decline for the index since early February of 2023.”
9. Lithium Supply Surplus Set To Stay With Battery Makers’ Help
Per Reuters: Many lithium mines, led by Chinese operators, are maintaining production of the raw material needed for electric vehicle (EV) batteries, in defiance of prices weak enough to trigger mass output cuts – providing a boon for battery makers.
The continued production raises the prospect of years of oversupply and of weak prices.
Some battery makers own mines or have injected cash into operations to keep them operational, company reports show.
Mines were also maintaining production to retain market share and good relations with governments and because closures and restarts can lead to technical issues, according to interviews with miners, consultants and analysts.
So far, around a dozen lithium producers have temporarily shut loss-making mines, trimmed output or delayed expansions.
Many others are still operating, meaning the global supply glut of the mineral needed for batteries for stationary storage, as well as for EVs, is likely to last for several years and keep prices low, the industry insiders and analysts said.
Live This Day As If It Were Your Last: On the surface this sound like you’re trying to turn your life into some sort of Jackass-meets-the-Purge situation. But it doesn’t need to be that extreme. If you’re not occasionally ditching responsibilities to belt out “Total Eclipse of the Heart” to a crowd of strangers in a karaoke bar at 2 a.m., you’re not living.
Live This Year As If It Were Your Last: It’s not the end… but you can see it from here. You have time, but not too much time. This can help you prioritize without going crazy. And you’ll be more grateful.
Live This Day As If It Were Your First: “Be present” isn’t just a Pinterest quote for people who wear hemp. Really look around and notice the things you’ve come to ignore. See the world like a child again.
Live This Day As If You Were Living It For The Second Time: With the weight of that invisible, non-existent first day looming over you like a disapproving gym coach, you’ll skip some of the dumb decisions that usually leave you feeling like you’ve been hit by the regret bus. And you’ll seize those opportunities that make life memorable.
