Topley’s Top 10 – January 25, 2022

1. For Traders….Oversold Short-Term

Technicals still negative intermediete term but short-term  RSI 22 getting well oversold

QQQ-Short -term RSI 22

www.stockcharts.com


2. Plus….Nasdaq Investor Sentiment Lower than Covid

Dave Lutz Jones Trading–Mark Hulbert Noted Friday Nasdaq investor sentiment is worse now than it was in March 2020 – “That’s an extremely aggressive bearish posture.” (Bottom 1.8% of ALL days since 2000) – “Minus 67.2%, which means that the average Nasdaq-focused stock market timer is recommending that clients allocate two-thirds of their equity trading portfolios to going short”


3. History of Rough Starts for the Nasdaq

www.dorseywright.com


4. Crypto Universe Valuations Cut in Half.

@Charlie Bilello


5. This is a Big Year for Crypto Regulation

White House Is Set to Put Itself at Center of U.S. Crypto Policy Jennifer Epstein, Jenny Leonard & Allyson Versprille 04:00 AM IST, 21 Jan 2022 05:09 AM IST, 22 Jan 2022 Save (Bloomberg) — The Biden administration is preparing to release an initial government-wide strategy for digital assets as

Read more at: https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/white-house-is-set-to-put-itself-at-center-of-u-s-crypto-policy
Copyright © BloombergQuint


6. MSTR $1200 to $350…-36% YTD.

MSTR actually hit $2000 back in 2001

www.stockcharts.com


7. Fund Managers Allocation to Commodities the Highest Ever

Commodities: Fund managers are very long commodities.

Source: BofA Global Research

The Daily Shott


9. U.S. Political Party Preferences Shifted Greatly During 2021

BY JEFFREY M. JONES

  • Preferences shifted from nine-point Democratic advantage to five-point GOP edge
  • Average party preferences for all of 2021 similar to past years
  • Largest percentage of U.S. adults identify as political independents

WASHINGTON, D.C. — On average, Americans’ political party preferences in 2021 looked similar to prior years, with slightly more U.S. adults identifying as Democrats or leaning Democratic (46%) than identified as Republicans or leaned Republican (43%).

However, the general stability for the full-year average obscures a dramatic shift over the course of 2021, from a nine-percentage-point Democratic advantage in the first quarter to a rare five-point Republican edge in the fourth quarter.

Line graph. Quarterly averages of U.S. party identification and leaning in 2021. In the first quarter of 2021, 49% of U.S. adults identified as Democrats or leaned Democratic, while 40% identified as Republicans or leaned Republican. In the second quarter, 49% were Democrats or Democratic leaners, and 43% were Republicans and Republican leaners. In the third quarter, 45% were Democrats and Democratic leaners, and were 44% Republicans and Republican leaners. In the fourth quarter, 42% were Democrats and Democratic leaners, and 47% were Republicans and Republican leaners.

These results are based on aggregated data from all U.S. Gallup telephone surveys in 2021, which included interviews with more than 12,000 randomly sampled U.S. adults.

Gallup asks all Americans it interviews whether they identify politically as a Republican, a Democrat or an independent. Independents are then asked whether they lean more toward the Republican or Democratic Party. The combined percentage of party identifiers and leaners gives a measure of the relative strength of the two parties politically.

Both the nine-point Democratic advantage in the first quarter and the five-point Republican edge in the fourth quarter are among the largest Gallup has measured for each party in any quarter since it began regularly measuring party identification and leaning in 1991.

  • The Democratic lead in the first quarter was the largest for the party since the fourth quarter of 2012, when Democrats also had a nine-point advantage. Democrats held larger, double-digit advantages in isolated quarters between 1992 and 1999 and nearly continuously between mid-2006 and early 2009.
  • The GOP has held as much as a five-point advantage in a total of only four quarters since 1991. The Republicans last held a five-point advantage in party identification and leaning in early 1995, after winning control of the House of Representatives for the first time since the 1950s. Republicans had a larger advantage only in the first quarter of 1991, after the U.S. victory in the Persian Gulf War led by then-President George H.W. Bush.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/388781/political-party-preferences-shifted-greatly-during-2021.aspx


10. Quotes on Courage

By Z. Hereford

When it comes to why I so enjoy reading the quotes of others, here is yet another quote to explain why:

“I quote others only the better to express myself.” Montaigne

Please enjoy these quotes on Courage.

The Quotes

It is better to live one day as a lion, than a thousand days as a lamb. Roman Proverb

You don’t develop courage by being happy in your relationships everyday. You develop it by surviving difficult times and challenging adversity. Epicurus

It is curious-curious that physical courage should be so common in the world, and moral courage so rare. Mark Twain

Everyday courage has few witnesses. But yours is no less noble because no drum beats for you and no crowds shout your name. Robert Louis Stevenson

Moral excellence comes about as a result of habit. We become just by doing just acts, temperate by doing temperate acts, brave by doing brave acts. Aristotle

Without courage, wisdom bears no fruit. Baltasar Gracian

He who loses wealth loses much; he who loses a friend loses more; but he that loses his courage loses all. Miguel de Cervantes

Clear thinking requires courage rather than intelligence. Thomas Szasz

We could never learn to be brave and patient if there were only joy in the world. Helen Keller

Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm. Winston Churchill

The greatest test of courage on the earth is to bear defeat without losing heart. R. G. Ingersoll

Courage is not defined by those who fought and did not fall, but by those who fought, fell and rose again. Anonymous

Take a chance! All life is a chance. The man who goes farthest is generally the one who is willing to do and dare. Dale Carnegie

Life shrinks and expands in proportion to one’s courage. Anais Nin

One man with courage makes a majority. Andrew Jackson

Courage is not the towering oak that sees storms come and go; it is the fragile blossom that opens in the snow. Alice M. Swaim

Courage is reckoned the greatest of all virtues; because, unless a man has that virtue, he has no security for preserving any other. Samuel Johnson

Sometimes even to live is an act of courage. Lucius Annaeus Seneca

Courage is the power to let go of the familiar. Raymond Lindquist

True courage is not the brutal force of vulgar heroes, but the firm resolve of virtue and reason. Alfred North Whitehead

There is no such thing as bravery; only degrees of fear. John Wainwright

Courage is the fear of being thought a coward. Horace Smith

Have the courage to live. Anyone can die. Robert Cody

We can easily forgive a child who is afraid of the dark; the real tragedy of life is when men are afraid of the light. Plato

Courage is the ladder on which all other virtues mount. Clare Booth Luce

The world is in a constant conspiracy against the brave. It’s the age-old struggle-the roar of the crowd on one side and the voice of your conscience on the other. Douglas MacArthur

It is only through labor and painful effort, by grim energy and resolute courage, that we move on to better things. Theodore Roosevelt

Be courageous! Have faith! Go forward! Thomas Alva Edison

He conquers who endures. Persius

Keep your fears to yourself but share your courage with others. Robert Louis Stevenson

Fear is the father of courage and the mother of safety. Henry H. Tweedy

It takes courage to grow up and turn out to be who you really are. e.e.cummings

The first of all qualities of a general is courage. David McCullough

Courage is nothing less than the power
To overcome danger, misfortune, fear, injustice,
While continuing to affirm inwardly
That life with all its sorrows is good;
That everything is meaningful even if in a sense
Beyond our understanding;

https://www.essentiallifeskills.net/quotesoncourage.html

Topley’s Top 10 – January 24, 2022

1. S&P and Nasdaq Close Below 200 Day Moving Averages.

S&P below 200 day but above October 2021 lows

©1999-2022 StockCharts.com All Rights Reserved

Nasdaq closes well below 200 day and sinks below October 2021 lows

©1999-2022 StockCharts.com All Rights Reserved

www.stockcharts.com

2. FANG Index Closes Below 200 Day…-13.5% from Highs

©1999-2022 StockCharts.com All Rights Reserved

Long-Term Weekly Chart closes below 50day moving average for first time since March 2020

©1999-2022 StockCharts.com All Rights Reserved

www.stockcharts.com

3. Nasdaq -1%+  4 Days in a Row…First Time Since Dot-Com Bust

Nasdaq 100’s Unrelenting Declines Ring a Dot-Com Bust Alarm Bell

Lu Wang(Bloomberg) — Bulls should be glad there were only four days this week instead of five.

To wit, the Nasdaq 100 just did something it hasn’t done since the aftermath of the internet bubble: fall more than 1% in every session of a week. It doesn’t count as a superlative because Monday was a holiday. But for investors caught up in the selloff, it felt like something shifted.

A full week of big down days hasn’t happened since the dot-com bubble burst, first in April 2000 and then in September 2001. Back then, the Nasdaq went on to fall another 28% before the market bottomed roughly a year later.

“If you just look at those two prior instances, right after 9/11 was a brutal market, while the other was the first leg down in the collapse of the tech bubble,” said George Pearkes, a strategist at Bespoke Investment Group. “It’s certainly ominous, isn’t it?”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nasdaq-100-unrelenting-drops-ring-214018521.html

4. FANG Stocks Overlay with Central Banks Balance Sheets

Barrons-By

Randall W. Forsyth

This Fed Meeting Is Crucial. Future Rate Hikes Are Just the Start. https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-fed-meeting-rate-hikes-51642784589?mod=past_editions

5. IPO ETF -41% from Highs.

IPO ETF 50 day thru 200 day to the downside on chart

This chart compares IPO ETF to S&P 500 index….The ratio has traded back to Covid 2020 bottom

6. XLE Energy ETF Break-Out.

Energy ETF opposite of broad markets…..50 day thru 200 day to upside…new highs

©1999-2022 StockCharts.com All Rights Reserved

www.stockcharts.com

7. If Bitcoin Gets No Bounce Early this Week….Next Technical Support $30,000

Error! Filename not specified.

1 / 3

BlackRock Plans ‘Blockchain and Tech’ ETF Amid Crypto Meltdown

 

BlackRock Plans ‘Blockchain and Tech’ ETF Amid Crypto Meltdown

Katie Greifeld

(Bloomberg) — BlackRock Inc. is stepping into the arena of cryptocurrency-flavored exchange-traded funds in the midst of a $1 trillion wipeout.

The iShares Blockchain and Tech ETF would invest in companies involved in the “development, innovation, and utilization of blockchain and crypto technologies,” according to a Friday filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. If launched, it would be the first crypto-adjacent fund in the largest ETF issuer’s lineup.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackrock-plans-blockchain-tech-etf-220719372.html

8. China Demographic Destruction Happening in Real Time

The GRID-Surveys reveal some of the reasons behind the decline. To begin with, fewer young people, particularly women, even want to get married. In a recent survey of urban Gen Zers conducted by a research institute affiliated with the Communist Youth League, 44 percent of women said they either didn’t want to get married or weren’t sure if they would. The men and women surveyed cited difficulty finding the right partner and a lack of time and energy as reasons for not wanting to marry.

Meanwhile, many married couples are choosing not to have kids for the same financial reasons that worry Liu. In a survey conducted by the China Youth Daily, millennials cited a lack of child care options and financial pressures as their top reasons for not having a second child.

https://www.grid.news/story/global/2022/01/12/what-happens-when-the-worlds-most-populous-country-starts-to-shrink/

Found at Barry Ritholtz Blog https://ritholtz.com/2022/01/weekend-reads-504/

9. The Top 10 and Bottom 10 States for Rearing Children

NY Times

ttps://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/20/realestate/the-best-place-to-raise-a-family.html

10. 6 reasons knowledge is true power!

I’m sure you’ve come across the famous saying ‘knowledge is power!’. Knowledge is so precious that it enriches you in diverse ways. Read my blog post to find 6 key ways you should take full advantage of this opportunity in life or else you’ll miss out on them!

While I strongly believe that ongoing learning is vital, I also find that knowledge is a true blessing and that it should be accessible easily. Learning can also be fun if you choose what to learn correctly and also find the methods that suit you best. So let’s dive into it.

1. Self-esteem

Your self-esteem, self-respect and self-confidence are all reinforced when you’re well-informed. In many life circumstances, being knowledgeable will give you additional power. It gives you the confidence you need!

2. Self-reliance

When you’re proficient, you have the freedom to make decisions on your own. You’re not dependent on others for guidance. You know that you can stand on your own feet.

3. Informed decisions

When you’ve got a good grasp, you’re more apt to take risks as well! You use your knowledge for your full benefit, so you can take calculated risks. Those with less understanding, are likely to be risk-aversive in life.

4. Learn from experts

While you learn from failures and use them to improve yourself, do learn from the experts as well! They’re the ones who are leaders in their respective fields. You’ll find out what works and what doesn’t, based on their experience and teachings.

5. Learn what’s proven

Find the best practices in your professional industry. Learn how to achieve what you truly want in your personal life. Follow hobby courses and much more… The point is that you can see what works best (from others) and save yourself precious time and money.

6. Success

Last but not least, with the knowledge you’re more likely to succeed. Success means different things to different people. However, set the right life goals for yourself, have an action plan to achieve them and learn the skills that will empower you!

Conclusion

Knowledge is indeed power… You cannot fool or take advantage of someone who is accomplished or has access to information. Make the most of learning experiences to make the most of your life! Do you have any tips to share? Please post a comment below. If you know anyone who could benefit from my blog post, please share it. Thank you!!

Photo/Image courtesy: Canva

https://tipsfromsharvi.com/2019/11/22/knowledge-true-power/

Topley’s Top 10 – January 21, 2022

1. 25 Million New Brokerage Accounts ..Retail Goes All In…

Michael Batnick Points Out the Retail Frenzy …2020 and 2021 Flows Dwarf 2018-2019

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2022/01/19/animal-spirits-25-million-new-brokerage-accounts/


2. After Record S&P vs. Emerging Gap in 2021…..Emerging Markets Outperform to Start 2022

Emerging markets at record low fundamental valuations vs. U.S. ….Bounce to start year.

www.stockcharts.com


3. Short-Term Bonds Not So Safe….Inflation Adjusted Yields -6-7%

How Safe Assets Became Investors’ Biggest Risk–ByAllison Schrager  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-01-18/how-safe-assets-became-investors-biggest-risk?sref=GGda9y2L


4. Bond Bombs.

AGG…50day thru 200day to downside….gap down on price.

BSV Short-Term Bond Index…


5. TIPS-Inflation Not Helping

TIPS Roll Over

Corporate Investment Grade….50day thru 200day to downside.

www.stockcharts.com


6. Long Gold vs. High Yield?

“Dave Lutz at Jones The biggest ETF tracking junk bonds suffered the third-largest daily outflow in its 15-year history as credit markets sold off amid prospects for higher interest rates. Investors pulled $1.3 billion from HYG Tuesday, the most since February 2020 – It has tested the $85.25 support level 4x in the last month, going to be very key for a hold there.”

This chart shows Gold versus High Yield Bonds reversing in December…Watch for breakout.


7. The only time in its history NFLX has been cash flow positive is when Covid shut down everything. And now it has pulled 5 years of demand forward

Zerohedge

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1484277160026255364/photo/1


8. Brevan Howard “Massive Crypto Push”

Brevan Howard Launches First Digital Assets Fund in ‘Massive’ Crypto Push

The firm’s inaugural crypto strategy started trading earlier this month with a sizeable amount of internal capital

By Michael Bodley/January 18, 2022, 4:00 pm EST

  • The firm’s co-founder, Alan Howard, has made crypto investments with his personal wealth for several years
  • BH Digital, the asset manager’s crypto division, has 25 employees and continues to grow

Hedge fund firm Brevan Howard has launched its first dedicated crypto fund with 10 teams of portfolio managers and bold fundraising aspirations, according to two people familiar with the matter.

The flagship vehicle, BH Digital Multi-Strategy Fund, started trading earlier this month with a sizable amount of internal capital, sources said. The plan is to start broadly raising outside money in the second quarter — and expectations are that fundraising haul would amount to at least several hundred million dollars and perhaps more than $1 billion.

Sources were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive business dealings. A spokesperson for Brevan Howard declined to comment.

The fund is the inaugural vehicle of BH Digital, the new Brevan Howard unit dedicated to the global macro firm’s crypto investments. The division now has 25 employees overall and is scaling. It represents one of the largest — if not the largest — commitments by a legacy asset manager to digital assets.

“Brevan is making an absolutely massive push into crypto,” one source said.

https://blockworks.co/sources-brevan-howard-launches-first-digital-assets-fund-in-massive-crypto-push/


9. Coffee ETF +100% From Dec. 2020

www.stockcharts.com


10. The Do’s and Don’ts of Tough Conversations

By Sarah Clark | September 20, 2017 | 

Imagine for a moment that you’re about to sit down with an employee to discuss exciting new changes to your company. Perhaps you’re bubbling with enthusiasm, sure that she’ll feel the same as you. Then you break the news and you’re met with a blank stare, a passive sigh or even an angry rebuttal.

No matter how prepared you might think you are, some conversations just won’t go the way you think they will. But that doesn’t mean you should give up and leave all tough conversations to work themselves out. After all, in an online survey of 1,000 employees, 91 percent said that communication issues drag executives down. The data revealed that most leaders were missing critical opportunities to engage that could position them as more trustworthy to their employees.

As someone who’s been managing others for more than 25 years, I’ve seen the value of honest, open communication between an employee and employer, but I’ve certainly stumbled along the way. Although these communication mishaps aren’t my proudest moments, they’ve taught me valuable lessons as a manager, including how to repair relationships and have more constructive conversations. I’ve picked up on a few important do’s and don’ts on my journey, such as:

1. Do throw the script away.

Preparing for a tough conversation is imperative to its success. There’s a big difference between jotting down notes and drafting a script, though. The latter won’t do you any good.

A difficult conversation tends to go best when you think about it as just a normal conversation,” says Holly Weeks, author of Failure to Communicate. Because your counterpart doesn’t know his or her lines, the conversation can become awkward and artificial. For a more natural, productive conversation, opt for a few bullet points to address, and be flexible about the ensuing conversation.

2. Don’t dance around the issue.

It is important for you, as a manager, to be as explicit as possible during difficult conversations. Begin by declaring what you hope to achieve during this meeting and asking the employee to do the same. Then tackle the topic at hand, as well as the thought process behind it.

3. Do put yourself in the other person’s shoes.

As humans, we all possess preconceived notions, but holding onto those assumptions during tough conversations is a mistake. For example, a few years ago, I led a team that we needed to restructure. We needed to go much deeper in areas where we were the best and for which we were known as the experts, but this also meant letting go of some things that weren’t as important. So I had to have several conversations with employees on how their roles would shift. One conversation was a huge learning experience for me.

I was so confident in the direction of our group that I failed to explain fully one employee’s role and how it was changing. I assumed she would understand the importance of the shift because she was a senior leader, but I failed to articulate how she fit into the bigger picture specifically. Because of this, she didn’t understand her importance to the company and the value she added.

It takes two people to have a conversation, so consider your counterpart’s perspective. Think through the issue at hand from your point of view. Then reflect on what your employee thinks the issue is. If you can’t answer the second question, ask him or her directly. When you work to empathize with your employee, she’ll be more open to having a productive conversation.

After speaking with my employee about the structural changes, I picked up on her social cues and asked her to tell me about how she was feeling. That’s when I realized I needed to put myself in her shoes. So I explained how shifting some of her workload would actually allow her to dive deeper into her area of expertise. After I did so, she became one of the biggest champions in the department for these changes.

4. Don’t get defensive.

It might be tempting to act defensively or even make yourself the victim during a difficult discussion, but you should avoid both of these tactics at all costs. Deflecting blame or making statements such as, “This is really difficult for me!” or “I feel terrible about this!” during a difficult conversation only makes you appear dismissive of your employee’s needs. Instead, acknowledge your role in the discussion and how you’ll work through the issue in collaboration with your employee.

5. Do show a little compassion.

Difficult conversations might not be pleasant, but compassion helps you deliver difficult news in an honest, fair manner. Ultimately, my restructuring conversation was successful because I responded to the employee’s needs with compassion. Once I understood why she was concerned, I was able to sympathize and respond accordingly. Keep in mind that it’s important to not only respond to employees’ concerns as they crop up, but also to stay ahead of them to reassure your employees that they’re valuable teammates.

Having a tough conversation with your employee is never easy or fun—especially when that employee reacts differently than you’d anticipated. But it’s still important to reflect on these experiences. After a draining conversation, take some time to consider what went well and what did not, as well as what you can do differently in the future. In conjunction with transparency, active listening and the right attitude, self-reflection will help you tackle difficult conversations head-on.

Sarah Clark

https://www.success.com/the-dos-and-donts-of-tough-conversations/

Topley’s Top 10 – January 20, 2022

1. S&P 500 correction now 5.5%, biggest since November 2020.

Jim Bianco Research

https://twitter.com/biancoresearch

2. Small Cap -16% from Highs

IWM small cap 50day going thru 200day to downside on chart

www.stockcharts.com

3. Short-Treasury ETF Only Back to October Highs

TBF ETF hit resistance at October high

4. Here’s what surging bond yields say about S&P 500 returns in next 6 months

William Watts–Marketwatch

“We have found that the current yield as a percentile of its recent range, along with the pace, or rate of change it has shown over the recent path has a big impact on the forward returns” for the S&P 500 SPX, -0.97%, wrote Jeff deGraaf, founder of Renaissance Macro Research, in a Wednesday note (see chart below).

RENAISSANCE MACRO RESEARCH

“The lower the level of rates and the faster the collapse in those rates, the better for stocks out [six months] forward. The higher the level and the faster the surge in rates, the worse the returns for the SPX going out” six months, deGraaf wrote.

With the 10-year yield having broken above resistance at 1.77%, the pace of the advance has pushed RenMac’s yield impact model into its highest historical decile, “and one that pressures forward equity returns historically,” he said, as shown in the bottom third of the chart.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-the-warning-signal-that-surging-bond-yields-are-sending-stock-market-investors-11642608225?mod=home-page

5. Peloton Insiders Dump Half A Billion Dollars In Stock Before Crash

BY TYLER DURDEN-ZEROHEDGE

Company executives and insiders unloaded $496 million worth of stock in 2021, right before and during the decline that began in early 1Q21. The stock sales mainly were done above $100 and were part of 10b5-1 plans.

Insider selling began as Peloton became a household name during the pandemic as millions of people canceled their gym memberships and bought a bike or treadmill. Growth prospects looked great during the first year of the pandemic as demand was pulled forward. Executives and insiders knew demand would not last forever as shares traded at rich multiples, even at one point trading at $170 per share in early 2021.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/peloton-insiders-dump-nearly-half-billion-dollars-stock-crash

PTON $180 to $31

www.stockcharts.com

6. Grayscale Bitcoin and Ethereum Trusts -50% Corrections from Highs

GBTC Bitcoin Trust

ETHE Ethereum Trust

www.stockcharts.com

7. Traders Bet That Oil at $100 Is a Question of When, Not If

Bloomberg Andrew Janes and Serene Cheong

Demand is roaring, with spot market cargoes being snapped up at sharply higher premiums. It’s the same in the product space. Middle-distillate stockpiles at the Asian energy hub of Singapore have fallen to the least since 2013. The world is short of diesel, and even jet fuel — the oil product hit hardest by the pandemic — is coming back strong as long-distance air travel starts to resume. With the exception of a major virus outbreak in China (see below) or a scary new strain emerging, it’s hard to see a demand reversal.

No Supply Buffers

Global crude stockpiles finally fell back to pre-pandemic levels in early-January, according to oil analytics firm Kayrros, with drawdowns led by sharp declines in China and the U.S., where inventories are at the lowest since late-2018. The tightening supply backdrop has pushed oil’s market structure deeper into backwardation, where prompt oil costs more than longer-dated contracts, further reducing the incentive to store crude for later sales.

The market currently has no supply buffers, making it more susceptible to price spikes driven by supply shocks, according to Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at industry consultant Energy Aspects Ltd. “When you have buffers, small outages like what we have seen over December and January matter a lot less,” she said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “But we don’t have that luxury.”

See also: Dwindling OPEC+ Spare Capacity Sets Oil Up for Sizzling Summer

OPEC+ Struggles to Pump More

OPEC+ has officially been restoring output at the rate of 400,000 barrels a day each month. But in reality, the alliance isn’t managing to get close to that target. African members, in particular, are struggling to ramp up production, with OPEC only adding 90,000 barrels a day in December as a supply boost by Saudi Arabia was offset by losses in Libya and Nigeria. Even Russia, part of the wider alliance, has said it may only be able to deliver about half of its scheduled supply increases over the next six months.

Those supply issues look set to be a major factor pushing oil toward the $100-a-barrel mark. Iran could prove to be a wildcard, however, if the long-running nuclear talks come to fruition and pave the way for a resumption in official crude exports. But the market impact might not be that large, given that a lot of shipments from the Islamic Republic — as well as Venezuela — are already finding their way to China despite American sanctions.

U.S. Shale Response

While U.S. oil output has been increasing it’s still not enough to cool the price rally. Supply from the Permian Basin — American’s most prolific shale patch that spans Texas and New Mexico — rose to a record in December. Low production costs make the Permian the most appealing to drillers eager to cash in on rising prices, but higher overheads in other areas and supply-chain snarls have so far stifled a faster ramp-up in activity.

The number of working oil rigs in the U.S. has climbed back close to 500 from below 200 in the second half of 2020, according to data from Baker Hughes, but is still more than 200 below levels in March of that year. Shares of U.S. energy companies are surging as oil rallies, but the big question — which will be critical in determining if crude gets to three figures — is whether shale drillers will use the extra cash to boost production this year.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/only-china-virus-outbreak-shale-084115815.html

8. New Business Applications Have Been Unprecedented Since Start of Pandemic

United States: New business applications have been unprecedented since the start of the pandemic.

https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-january-19th-2022/

9. Scientists find potential cure for arthritis pain — by using electricity to regrow cartilage

STORRS, Conn. — A new method of regrowing cartilage by zapping the bone could bring pain relief to millions of people who suffer from arthritis. The technique, which researchers at the University of Connecticut have successfully tested on rabbits, uses small electric shocks to stimulate cartilage growth.

Normally, pads of cartilage cushion these areas, but they can become worn with age or through injury, causing the bones to rub and making everyday activities like walking incredibly painful. Currently, treatments involve replacing damaged cartilage with a healthy piece taken from elsewhere in the patient’s body or from a donor.

However, healthy cartilage is in short supply and removing it from other parts of the body could cause more problems. To address this, scientists have explored ways of getting the body to regrow its own healthy cartilage, but attempts have failed so far.

Now, scientists have discovered the missing ingredient for the cartilage to grow back properly — electricity.

“The regrown cartilage doesn’t behave like native cartilage. It breaks, under the normal stresses of the joint,” says co-author Dr. Thanh Nguyen in a university release.

Building a new ‘scaffold’ for arthritis patients
The researchers designed a “scaffold” — a technique doctors commonly use to repair or reconstruct missing or injured body tissue.

The new scaffold is made of a biodegradable material doctors use to stitch up surgical wounds, called poly-L lactic acid (PLLA). The substance is piezo-electric, meaning it produces a little burst of electricity when squeezed.

This way, when the patient starts walking and the joint moves, the movement generates a weak but steady electrical field, encouraging cells to grow into cartilage.

“Piezoelectricity is a phenomenon that also exists in the human body. Bone, cartilage, collagen, DNA and various proteins have a piezoelectric response. Our approach to healing cartilage is highly clinically translational, and we will look into the related healing mechanism,” says lead author Dr. Yang Liu.

Healthy cartilage started growing back and the test subjects did not need any other ingredients or stem cells, which can cause nasty side-effects. The team recently tested the scaffold in the knee of an injured rabbit, who could then exercise on a treadmill.

“This is a fascinating result, but we need to test this in a larger animal,” Dr. Liu says.

The researchers are hoping to study animals treated with the scaffolding for up to two years to make sure the cartilage is durable. Dr. Liu adds that young animals heal more easily than older ones. If the piezoelectric scaffolding helps older patients heal as well, their invention will truly be a bioengineering breakthrough.

The findings are published in the journal Science Translational Medicine.

South West News Service writer Tom Campbell contributed to this report.

https://www.studyfinds.org/arthritis-pain-regrowing-cartilage/

10. How to Get (and Stay) Focused

Nir Eyal-Psychology Today
Here’s how to make the most out of your time and life.
KEY POINTS

  • Stop focusing on the problem and focus on finding a solution.
  • Learn to indulge in moderation.
  • Understand your triggers in order to get and stay focused.

This post is part 2 of a two-part series. You can read the first article here. Now that you have a clear picture of what causes people to lose focus, it’s time to learn the tools to overcome distraction. The following three tools can be used to help you regain your focus:

Complain Better

Emotional Intelligence 2.0 author, Dr. Travis Bradberry, argues that frequent complaining is a detrimental habit that can – and should – be broken. Complaining releases the stress hormone cortisol which negatively affects mood, reduces energy levels, and can ironically lead to more of the uncomfortable emotions we seek to escape through distractions.10

It’s time to learn how to complain better. Instead of complaining by focusing on the problem, Bradberry suggests adopting a “solution-oriented” approach.

Next time you feel the urge to complain about a looming deadline or difficult task, stop to consider the real source of the problem. For instance, ask yourself whether a solution to the problem of not wanting to do a task can be found in changing your perception of the work. If so, changing your mind proves much easier and healthier than trying to avoid it. A little self-awareness through introspection can go a long way.

Schedule Your Indulgences

In a 1992 study, researchers found that participants who cited being unable to lose weight despite dieting underestimated their daily caloric intake by 47%.11 These same participants overestimated their daily activity level by 51%. This study suggests that we have a tendency to overestimate behaviors we know to be good for us – how much we exercise, how healthy we eat, how often we clean our homes. We do the opposite when it comes to behaviors we know have detrimental effects – alcohol consumption, sugar intake, and monthly entertainment spending.12 While frivolous indulgences are satisfying in the short-term, they tend to move us away from what we really want. An episode of TV can feel relaxing and satisfying. But what happens after one, two, three…? One episode feels good. A whole series can fill you with regret. When it comes to indulgences, there’s nothing wrong with enjoying yourself. However, the key to moderation is intent. By setting aside time for the things likely to distract you, you ensure to control them instead of letting them control you. Instead of watching television or scrolling social media whenever the urge strikes, put that activity on your calendar, just as you would timebox any task. By planning ahead, you give yourself the peace of mind knowing you’ll soon have time for something fun, without being taken off track when you want to stay focused.

Master Your Triggers

In a George Mason University study, researchers found that distractions have a negative impact on the quantity and quality of our work.13 During the study, 54 participants were asked to outline and write essays on three different topics. Researchers found that interruptions negatively affected both the quality and quantity of work produced. This study supports research that distractions eat up time as well as decrease quality of work. According to one University of California study, it takes approximately twenty-three minutes to get back on track after being distracted.14 Triggers to distraction come in two categories – Internal Triggers and External Triggers. Getting and staying focused requires understanding and mastering both.

External Triggers: Cellphones, work colleagues, and even our kids, can all take us off track when we planned to focus. These triggers in our environment are called “external triggers.” External triggers are relatively easy to control – turn your phone off, logout of social media, put a sign on your computer monitor telling colleagues you’re busy, and so on. Internal triggers, on the other hand, are more difficult to recognize and correct. Internal Triggers: Internal triggers come from within. They are uncomfortable emotional states you seek to escape. Understanding the internal triggers driving you to distraction is critical to staying focused. When do you feel the urge to check your phone? Do you check it when you feel lonely? Bored? Anxious? Overwhelmed? If so, what’s the source of these negative emotions? Reflecting on why you get distracted and learning healthier ways to respond is an integral part of developing sustained focus. While you may be unable to control what you feel, you are able to put practices in place to help guide what you do in response to the desire to escape into distraction. Is your habit of falling out of focus when you feel a negative emotion helping or hampering your ability to stay focused? If you are honest about why you become distracted and understand your negative emotions, you can respond in a healthier way in line with your values and goals.

Becoming indistractable requires an understanding of why you lose focus and learning the skills to do as you say. Establishing healthy habits, breaking out of your unproductive routines, and making time for what matters help you stay focused. By learning not to complain, scheduling indulgences, and understanding your internal triggers, you can harness the power to stay focused.

Nir’s Note: This article was written in collaboration with the NirAndFar.com team.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/automatic-you/202110/how-get-and-stay-focused?collection=1170955

Topley’s Top 10 – January 19, 2022

1. History of Nasdaq -10% Pullbacks

Dorsey Wright–There have been a total of 177 pullbacks for NDX since the end of 1992 (not including the current drawdown). The average peak to trough drawdown for those instances sits at -10.66% with a median of -9.68%. It took the Nasdaq 100 Index just over 19 days on average from each peak to reach the trough. Less than half of the pullbacks ultimately led to a 10% correction, with the average decline from the date of each pullback to each trough sitting at -4.53%. The index averaged just under 60 days between each 5% pullback, which would lead to six such events each year.


2. What Did 1999-2002 Internet Bubble Crash Look Like?

I don’t think we are in internet 1999 crash situation but interesting stuff from Barry Ritholtz

Barry Ritholtz–One of the things that made the March 2000-October 2002 period so pernicious was that the recoveries that followed every single drop subsequently failed. Starting in December 1999, there were drops of 15.5%, 10.7%, 31.6%, 21%, 13.9%, 26.8%, 27.1%, 28.2%, 48.9%, 44.8%, and 50%. Each one of these moves lower led to buyers jumping in to take advantage of discounts, only to see the a subsequent rally that failed. New lower lows occurred, with fewer dip buyers each time. This is how we eventually work our way towards what technicians call a sellers’ exhaustion.

https://ritholtz.com/2022/01/living-through-a-crash/


3. Investors Buying Banks and Commodities

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading

POSITIONING– Latest BofA Fund Manager Survey highlights that investors have dipped into cash to up allocation to commodities (ATH) & equities; investors shifted from credit to commodities, growth to value, tech to banks.

Banks OW surges to highest since Oct’17.  Investors are very long equities, particularly in the EU, as well as cyclical banks, commodities, and industrials while they shun bonds, defensives (utilities, staples), and EM. Tech OW slumps to lowest since Dec’08, ACC to latest BofA Fund Manager Survey.


4. RPV Pure Value vs. RPG Pure Growth YTD 2022

Before Tues…RPG +7% vs. RPG -7%

www.stockcharts.com


5. Retail Sales Inflation Adjusted -2.5%….Inflation Kicking in to Consumer Spending?

@Charlie Bilello Free Money Lessons

US Retail Sales ended the year on a weak note, falling 2.1% in December before adjusting for inflation and -2.5% in inflation-adjusted terms. This was likely due in no small part to reduced travel and leisure activity from the exponential spread of the Omicron variant. But there are also signs that consumers may be starting to hold off on discretionary purchases given the sharp rise in prices and wages that are now failing to keep pace with inflation.

Powered by YCharts


6. Retailer ETF Fails to Make New Highs.

RTH ETF 3 attempts at new highs fail

www.stockcharts.com


7. Top 10 Mega Cap Names 34% of S&P

“Passive ETFs” Are Hiding The Bear Market by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 1/18/22

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/01/18/passive-etfs-are-hiding-the-bear-market


8. Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare Growing 41% CAGR

GraphicalResearch.com

North America AI in Healthcare Market size exceeded USD 1.15 billion in 2020 and is predicted to witness over 44.2% CAGR from 2021 to 2027.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the broad-ranging division of computer science involved in developing smart machines competent in executing tasks that ordinarily need human intelligence. AI technologies are enhancing ongoing developments in the medical field, modern business, and everyday life practices in healthcare. Artificial intelligence in healthcare can support healthcare providers in multiple sectors of patient care and organizational management processes. Different applications of healthcare AI such as early diagnosis, lessen therapeutic errors, increase patient safety, and decision support are accelerating the market demand.

https://www.graphicalresearch.com/industry-insights/1778/north-america-artificial-intelligence-ai-in-healthcare-market


9. Fear and Greed Index Only Neutral So Far……..

https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/


10. Absolute Success vs. Relative Success

written by JAMES CLEAR

LIFE LESSONS

One way to answer this question is to say: Luck matters more in an absolute sense and hard work matters more in a relative sense.

The absolute view considers your level of success compared to everyone else. What makes someone the best in the world in a particular domain? When viewed at this level, success is nearly always attributable to luck. Even if you make a good initial choice—like Bill Gates choosing to start a computer company—you can’t understand all of the factors that cause world-class outcomes.

As a general rule, the wilder the success, the more extreme and unlikely the circumstances that caused it. It’s often a combination of the right genes, the right connections, the right timing, and a thousand other influences that nobody is wise enough to predict.

As a general rule, the wilder the success, the more extreme and unlikely the circumstances that caused it.

Then there is the relative view, which considers your level of success compared to those similar to you. What about the millions of people who received similar levels of education, grew up in similar neighborhoods, or were born with similar levels of genetic talent? These people aren’t achieving the same results. The more local the comparison becomes, the more success is determined by hard work. When you compare yourself to those who have experienced similar levels of luck, the difference is in your habits and choices.

Absolute success is luck. Relative success is choices and habits.

There is an important insight that follows naturally from this definition: As outcomes become more extreme, the role of luck increases. That is, as you become more successful in an absolute sense, we can attribute a greater proportion of your success to luck.

As Nassim Taleb wrote in Fooled by Randomness, “Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to variance.”

Both Stories are True

Sometimes people have trouble simultaneously holding both of these insights. There is a tendency to discuss outcomes in either a global sense or a local sense.

The absolute view is more global. What explains the difference between a wealthy person born in America and someone born into extreme poverty and living on less than $1 per day? When discussing success from this angle, people say things like, “How can you not see your privilege? Don’t you realize how much has been handed to you?”

The relative view is more local. What explains the difference in results between you and everyone who went to the same school or grew up in the same neighborhood or worked for the same company? When considering success from a local viewpoint, people say things like, “Are you kidding me? Do you know hard I worked? Do you understand the choices and sacrifices I made that others didn’t? Dismissing my success as luck devalues the hard work I put in. If my success is due to luck or my environment, then how come my neighbors or classmates or coworkers didn’t achieve the same thing?”

Both stories are true. It just depends on what lens you are viewing life through.

The Slope of Success

There is another way to examine the balance between luck and hard work, which is to consider how success is influenced across time.

Imagine you can map success on a graph. Success is measured on the Y-axis. Time is measured on the X-axis. And when you are born, the ball you pluck out of Buffett’s Ovarian Lottery determines the y-intercept. Those who are born lucky start higher on the graph. Those who are born into tougher circumstances start lower.

Here’s the key: You can only control the slope of your success, not your initial position.

In Atomic Habits, I wrote, “It doesn’t matter how successful or unsuccessful you are right now. What matters is whether your habits are putting you on the path toward success. You should be far more concerned with your current trajectory than with your current results.”

You can only control the slope of your success, not your initial position.

With a positive slope and enough time and effort, you may even be able to regain the ground that was lost due to bad luck. I thought this quote summarized it well: “The more time passes from the start of a race, the less the head-start others got matters.”

This is not always true, of course. A severe illness can wipe out your health. A collapsing pension fund can ruin your retirement savings. Similarly, sometimes luck delivers a sustained advantage (or disadvantage). In fact, one study found that, if success is measured by wealth, then the most successful people are almost certainly those with moderate talent and remarkable luck.

In any case, it is impossible to divorce the two. They both matter and hard work often plays a more important role as time goes on.

This is true not only for overcoming bad luck, but also for capitalizing on good luck. Bill Gates might have been incredibly fortunate to start Microsoft at the right time in history, but without decades of hard work, the opportunity would have been wasted. Time erodes every advantage. At some point, good luck requires hard work if success is to be sustained.

How to Get Luck on Your Side

By definition, luck is out of your control. Even so, it is useful to understand the role it plays and how it works so you can prepare for when fortune (or misfortune) comes your way.

In his fantastic talk, You and Your Research, the mathematician and computer engineer Richard Hamming summarized what it takes to do great work by saying, “There is indeed an element of luck, and no, there isn’t. The prepared mind sooner or later finds something important and does it. So yes, it is luck. The particular thing you do is luck, but that you do something is not.”

You can increase your surface area for good luck by taking action. The forager who explores widely will find lots of useless terrain, but is also more likely to stumble across a bountiful berry patch than the person who stays home. Similarly, the person who works hard, pursues opportunity, and tries more things is more likely to stumble across a lucky break than the person who waits. Gary Player, the famous golfer and winner of nine major championships, has said, “The harder I practice, the luckier I get.”

In the end, we cannot control our luck—good or bad—but we can control our effort and preparation. Luck smiles on us all from time to time. And when it does, the way to honor your good fortune is to work hard and make the most of it.

HTTPS://JAMESCLEAR.COM/LUCK-VS-HARD-WORK