Topley’s Top 10 – March 01, 2022

Regarding Ukraine Situation

Malcolm Gladwell David vs Goliath Stat-  “1/3 of wars in history won by the smaller weaker force. Guerrilla or unconventional forces win 63% of time”

https://www.amazon.com/David-Goliath-Underdogs-Misfits-Battling/dp/0316204374/ref=sr_1_3?crid=38XOCO3WVUFYI&keywords=malcolm+gladwell+books&qid=1646064979&sprefix=malcolm+gladwell+books%2Caps%2C64&sr=8-3

 Both won several world heavyweight boxing championships, known for smooth footwork and fierce jabs. One never faced a knockdown in the ring. The other was undefeated for a decade.

Now, after Hall of Fame boxing careers, Vitali Klitschko and Wladimir Klitschko are again on the world stage, united in Ukraine’s fight against Russia’s invasion.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2022-02-25/two-ukrainian-brothers-former-world-boxing-champions-take-up-arms-against-russian-invaders

 Former Miss Ukraine Joins Fight Against Russia

https://www.ndtv.com/offbeat/former-miss-ukraine-anastasia-lenna-joins-fight-against-russia-2794430


1. Markets Rally on the Invasion

Irrelevant Investor-Michael Batnick

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2022/02/23/animal-spirits-the-craziest-housing-market-ever/


2. Stock Market History Post 10-15% Corrections.

https://i0.wp.com/lplresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/2.24.22-Blog-Chart-4.png?ssl=1


3. Summary of Russian Produced Commodities

The chart-Here’s a refresher chart from Goldman on the commodities that Russia produces:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-are-the-most-important-s-p-500-and-nasdaq-levels-to-watch-right-now-says-this-strategist-11646049790?mod=home-page


4. Russian Market Holds Covid Lows…..Ukraine Biggest Trading Partner in European Union and China More Dependent on Ukraine than Russia.

NY Times Friedman–Then think about this: Thanks to rapid globalization, the E.U. is already Ukraine’s biggest trading partner — not Russia. In 2012, Russia was the destination for 25.7 percent of Ukrainian exports, compared with 24.9 percent going to the E.U. Just six years later, after Russia’s brutal seizure of Crimea and support of separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine and Ukraine’s forging of closer ties with the E.U. economically and politically, “Russia’s share of Ukrainian exports had fallen to only 7.7 percent, while the E.U.’s share shot up to 42.6 percent,” according to a recent analysis published by Bruegel.org.

But Xi is nobody’s fool. Here are a couple of other interesting facts from the wired world: First, China’s economy is more dependent on Ukraine than Russia’s. According to Reuters, “China leapfrogged Russia to become Ukraine’s biggest single trading partner in 2019, with overall trade totaling $18.98 billion last year, a nearly 80 percent jump from 2013. … China became the largest importer of Ukrainian barley in the 2020-21 marketing year,” and about 30 percent of all of China’s corn imports last year came from farms in Ukraine.

Second, China overtook the United States as the European Union’s biggest trading partner in 2020, and Beijing cannot afford for the E.U. to be embroiled in conflict with an increasingly aggressive Russia and unstable Putin. China’s stability depends — and the legitimacy of the ruling Communist Party rests — on Xi’s ability to sustain and grow his already massive middle class. And that depends on a stable and growing world economy.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/25/opinion/putin-russia-ukraine.html

Russian Stock Market ETF-RSX ….Holds Covid Lows for Now


5. Russia Invasion of Ukraine May Have Changed Military Spending for a Long Time

Jim Reid Deutsche Bank

As I mentioned in my EMR this morning, it seems the geopolitical tectonic plates shifted this weekend. Perhaps the most significant was German Chancellor Scholz’s announcement that from 2024 Germany will spend at least 2% of GDP on defence each year. The first CoTD shows that their average between 2011-2020 was 1.2%. While the amounts here aren’t game changers, the turn in sentiment towards defence is and its one likely to be followed by other countries as they face up to the new world order.

The second chart shows a time series of this for a smaller selection of countries. Defence spending has fallen consistently in the post-WWII world and over the last 20 years has been comfortably below 2% for many countries.

Interestingly, as recently as the mid-1980s, the UK spent roughly the same on defence, education and health. For perspective this year they are expected to spend £60bn on defence, £124bn on education and £230bn on health.

So while we are unlikely to see a return to defence spending levels seen in the past, the last week’s events are likely to mark a turning point.


6. Russia Ruble a Non-Factor in Global Currencies


7. New York City Prime Properties Held by Russian Oligarchs

Mark Elliott

@markmobility

https://twitter.com/markmobility


8. Value Performance Over Growth Highest in a Decade.

The Daily Shot Blog Equities: It’s been over a decade since we saw this level of growth factor underperformance vs. value (over a 3-month period).

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence

https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-february-25th-2022/


9. The U.S. Needs 1.55m Homes Per Year for Next 10 Years

John Burns Real Estate -Chris Porter updated the 10 year housing demand calc we did in our book 6 years ago.
We need to average 1.55 mil homes /year over 10 years, up from 1.37 mil in the oversupply situation in 2016.
1.7 million undersupply is at normal affordability, which is not the case today.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/johnburns7/


10. If You Want to Fix Burnout, You First Have to Understand Its 6 Main Causes

Fixing burnout is way more complicated than just longer vacations and taking up yoga.

BY JESSICA STILLMAN, CONTRIBUTOR, INC.COM@ENTRYLEVELREBEL

It will probably come as no surprise to you that every time pollsters ask people how they’re feeling about work at the moment, they hear the same thing. People are really, really burnt out. In response to one recent survey by HR tech company Workhuman, 41 percent of respondents claimed to have burnt out in just the last few months. Another survey by The Hartford found an overall burnout rate of 61 percent. I could go on (and on and on). 

But while the fact that a huge number of workers are feeling burnt out after nearly two years of pandemic mayhem may be glaringly obvious, the exact reasons why so many are suffering are much less well understood, according to Jennifer Moss, the author of a new book entitled The Burnout Epidemic

Employers often think battling burnout is just about offering more vacation time or more generous perks. But Moss insists in the book that “burnout is a complex constellation of poor workplace practices and policies, antiquated institutional legacies, roles and personalities at higher risk, and system, societal issues that have been unchanged, plaguing us for too long.” 

In short, burnout is complicated. And if you want to effectively address the problem, you have to take a long, hard look at the underlying issues driving it. A recent Greater Good Science Center article covering Moss’s book helpfully laid out six of the biggest problems. 

1. Excessive workload

No shock here. Overwork is a huge contributor to burnout, and WHO data shows excessively long hours lead to more than half a million deaths a year. Fixing the problem is mostly in the hands of employers, according to Moss, who suggests companies “identify low-priority goals for their employees” so they can better manage their workloads, “provide more support when needs change suddenly,” and consider implementing a four-day workweek, among other measures. 

2. Perceived lack of control 

Studies show that autonomy at work is important for well-being, and being micromanaged is particularly de-motivating to employees. Yet many employers fall back on watching their employees’ every move, controlling their work schedule, or punishing them for missteps,” notes Greater Good. Offering employees more choice over where, when, and how to work can be an incredibly effective way to battle burnout if you suspect a lack of autonomy is a contributing factor. 

3. Lack of recognition 

This isn’t just about paying people what they’re worth, though that’s essential if you want to avoid burning out your people, but also about ensuring that employees know their contributions are seen and valued. Rather than stir envy and unhealthy competition by handing out rewards to only top contributors, Moss suggests “gratitude from top leadership and peer-to-peer gratitude.”

4. Poor relationships 

Knowing and liking your colleagues as whole, real people is a strong predictor of happiness at work, while a lack of social connection at work is a predictor for burnout. That’s why Moss recommends employers “give people spaces where they can connect with colleagues around non-work-related topics,” as well as “encouraging volunteerism and building more inclusive cultures.”

5. Lack of fairness 

Again, it’s no shock that feeling unfairly treated really ticks people off and saps their motivation for work. Bosses will never be able to eliminate every perceived slight and grievance, but they can provide mechanisms to report and resolve these issues. Being ruthless about rooting out bias and discrimination is, of course, also essential.

6. Values mismatch 

As Harvard professor Arthur Brooks has pointed out, the best job for you is the job that matches your values. The opposite is also true. The jobs that are most likely to cause burnout are the ones where we feel in conflict with our deepest commitments. Depending on the particulars of the situation, fixing this issue can involve either hiring people whose values better align with the company’s mission or having the company actually stand up for the values it says it believes in. (Or from the employee’s perspective, thinking about how to ditch your ethically dubious employer.) 

Every case of burnout is unique, with its own collection of causes both personal and professional. But Moss’s list of common contributing factors is a starting point for both bosses and employees to ponder the real roots of feelings of exhaustion, so they can battle back against the current burnout epidemic.

OCT 12, 2021

The opinions expressed here by Inc.com columnists are their own, not those of Inc.com.

https://www.inc.com/jessica-stillman/leadership-jennifer-moss-burnout-epidemic.html?cid=sf01003

Topley’s Top 10 – February 28, 2022

1. The Markets for Now Making Lower Highs.

Stock markets need to break pattern of making lower highs….3 in play right now

QQQ—same pattern

www.stockcharts.com


2. Bitcoin -47% Correction High to Low….But Held Lows Twice in Last Month


3. KWEB Chinese Internet ETF -67% from Highs…Breaks to new lows.

Chinese Internet Stock ETF–50day just breaking thru 200day to the downside….BABA had mediocre earnings pushing stock and ETF to new lows

www.stockcharts.com


4. SPACS—105 SPACS from 2021 Yet to Find a Target Company

Barrons-A little more than half, or 58%, of those SPACs have found and closed acquisitions, an analysis by Barron’s has found. That means that 105 SPACs, including 33 that have deals pending and 72 that have yet to find a target, haven’t been able to complete a merger.

SPACs become wildly popular during the second half of 2020—the 247 SPACs that went public that year was, at the time, the most ever. That record was toppled in 2021 when 613 blank-check companies began trading, according to Dealogic.

SPACs Are Scrambling to Find Mergers. What That Means for Investors.-By Luisa Beltran Foo w https://www.barrons.com/articles/spacs-mergers-51645665116?mod=past_edition

https://www.barrons.com/articles/spacs-mergers-51645665116?mod=past_editions


5. Moderna Stock -65% Correction….They hold 13x more cash than pre-covid when stock traded at $20

www.stockcharts.com


6. After Russian Invasion of Ukraine…Europe (VGK) Still Outperforming S&P Year to Date

SPY -9.2% vs. VGK Vanguard Europe -7.6%

www.yahoofinance.com


7. Aluminum and Nickel Spike to New Highs on Huge Exposure to Russia/Ukraine

JJU Aluminum ETF

JJN-Nickel Index

www.stockcharts.com


8. Americans are No Longer Moving Every 6 Years….Percent of Americans Moving Hits New Lows

https://www.vox.com/22939038/rents-rising-home-prices-americans-moving-residential-stagnation-stuck-mobility-freedom


9. Ukrainian Opinion of Russia Changed Dramatically After Crimea

One interesting chart we’ve seen, originally in the NYTimes, was of Ukrainian public opinion towards Russia. As shown above, before Russia’s annexation of Crimea — the peninsula in the south — Ukrainian public opinion towards Russia was overwhelmingly positive.

Respondents to surveys from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology showed that more than 80% of Ukrainians polled had mostly positive views towards Russia. After the annexation that figure dropped dramatically, and hadn’t recovered even prior to Russia’s latest invasion.

Regional variation

Not every region of Ukraine feels the same. Residents of western Ukraine are a lot less likely to have a positive view of Russia (21% of respondents) than their counterparts in the east — where 53% had a positive view.

www.chartr.com

Putin’s attack on Ukraine echoes Hitler’s takeover of Czechoslovakia

Michael Ruane – Yesterday 1:15 PM

By 1939, parts of Czechoslovakia had already been carved off and taken over by Nazi Germany, which claimed that millions of ethnic Germans were being persecuted there.

The previous September, European powers, seeking to avoid war, had acquiesced and done nothing.

But six months later, German troops were massed on the Czech border, as Nazi leader Adolf Hitler railed and threatened the country with destruction.

 

On March 15, 1939, the sickly Czech president, Emil Hacha, was in Hitler’s study surrounded by the Führer’s henchmen.

“Hitler was at his most intimidating,” historian Ian Kershaw wrote in his 2000 biography of the Nazi leader. “He launched into a violent tirade against the Czechs.” The Nazis needed to take over Czechoslovakia to protect Germany. Hacha must agree or his country would be immediately attacked and Prague, its capital, bombed.

Hacha fainted, according to Kershaw, but was revived and gave in to Hitler’s demand. German troops marched in a few hours later. Hitler said it was the happiest day of his life.

Russia strikes Ukraine from multiple directions; Biden vows ‘consequences’

Russia’s Vladimir Putin did not bother to speak with Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, before launching his assault Thursday. But some observers see brutal similarities to Hitler’s seizure of Czechoslovakia just before World War II.

“This is all truly dictated by our national interests and dictated by care for the future of our country,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Thursday after the Russian assault began.

Putin on Monday claimed pro-Russian residents of Ukraine faced “genocide.”

“The killing of civilians … the abuse of people, including children, women and the elderly, continues unabated,” he said. “There is no end in sight.”

“Neanderthal and aggressive nationalism and neo-Nazism … have been elevated in Ukraine to the rank of national policy,” he said. “How much longer can one put up with this?”

In March 1938, during the run-up to World War II, Hitler had first engineered the Nazi takeover of Austria, which already had strong pro-Nazi sympathies.

Seven months later, he was plotting the seizure of part of Czechoslovakia, claiming that ethnic Germans in the Sudeten regions bordering eastern Germany were being mistreated.

“I must also declare before the German people that in the Sudeten German problem my patience is now at an end,” Hitler said on Sept. 26, 1938. Czechoslovakia must “give the Germans their freedom, or we will get this freedom for ourselves.”

Four days later, during the famous Munich conference — now known as the centerpiece of the “appeasement” of the Nazis — Great Britain, France and Italy agreed to the handover of the Sudeten region to Germany, hoping it would prevent further aggression.

“It is the last territorial claim which I have to make in Europe,” Hitler said. Within six months, he took the rest of Czechoslovakia, and on Sept. 1, 1939, he attacked Poland, starting World War II.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-e2-80-99s-attack-on-ukraine-echoes-hitler-e2-80-99s-takeover-of-czechoslovakia/ar-AAUgcx9?ocid=uxbndlbing


10. Patience is not Passive

Farnum Street

“Patience is not passive, on the contrary, it is concentrated strength.” ― Bruce Lee

People wait in different ways. Some are passive. Others are active. These two approaches are as different as the results they yield.

Passive patience is waiting for the world to give you the thing you want. A lot of people live their life with passive patience. Rather than go after the promotion at work they expect it to fall in their lap. Rather than go after the love of their life, they sit back and expect to be courted. Rather than chase their dreams, they wait for just the right opening that always seems around the corner but never comes. These people have the wrong kind of patience.

Active patience is different. Active patience demands action and intention, even while waiting for results. Active patience means not only applying for the promotion but taking your time to build the skills you need to put yourself in the best position to succeed. Active patience means starting the business, writing the book, going after the love of your life.

Active patience puts you in the best position to get what you want. There is almost always an action you can take to improve the odds.

Active in the moment but patient with the results.

Active patience.

(Share this Tiny Thought on Twitter)

https://fs.blog/brain-food/february-27-2022/

Topley’s Top 10 – February 22, 2022

1. Political and Geopolitical Events Impact on S&P 500

Zerohedge

2. Updated Trailing and Forward Price to Earnings Ratios

FactSet

The trailing 12-month P/E ratio for $SPX of 21.8 is below the 5-year average (23.1) and above the 10-year average (20.0). https://bit.ly/3sQM7aR

The forward 12-month P/E ratio for $SPX of 19.2 is above the 5-year average (18.6) and the 10-year average (16.7). https://bit.ly/3sQM7aR

https://twitter.com/FactSet

3. Reaction to Earnings Surprise by Sector Thru Friday

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright

4. European Financials Outperforming

Michael Gayed Lead Lag Report ….Banks in U.S. have Outperformed since last year….Euro financials also adding sizeable alpha this year

https://www.leadlagreport.com/

EUFN Ishares Euro Financials close to breaking out of 11 year sideways move

www.stockcharts.com

5. Russia Stock ETF -30% Correction from Highs.

Russian ETF Hit $14 during Covid then rallied to $33 as energy prices rose…$23 last

www.stockcharts.com

6. Top 10 Companies with Exposure to Russia/Ukraine

The Daily Shot Blog

7. Emerging Markets After Sucking Wind for Years…Start 2022 Beating U.S. Stocks and Bonds.

LPL Research-Asset Class Returns Thru Friday

https://lplresearch.com/2022/02/18/weekly-market-performance-the-fed-and-ukraine-influence-this-weeks-markets/

8. Metaverse Jump in Mentions on Corporate Transcripts

Blackrock Blog-A giant leap into the metaverse
Momentum of ‘metaverse’ mentions in company transcripts vs. other themes

Reid Menge https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/insights/metaverse-investing-in-the-future

9. The Economics of Food Delivery

CHARTR -Indeed, many of the restaurants on aggregator platforms may actually be losing money (70c) on an average order. Drivers are making ~$9 per order including tip before considering their own expenses, and the platforms are generally squeezing out just a 3-4% contribution margin.

Some of these numbers come from the National Restaurant Association and may tell a slightly different story to DoorDash’s own analysis, but the fact remains that despite ~10 years of rapid growth, food delivery profits are hard to find. Add to the mix the new and fiercely competitive ultra-fast grocery delivery market, and things get even murkier still.

Please sir, I want some more

With trends like larger average orders, more users to optimize multi-order trips, better technology, more in-app advertising and higher market concentration, these numbers are going to keep evolving — but how any improvement in economics is shared between stakeholders remains to be seen.

If there’s a local spot you’d like to support (it is Friday after all), your best bet is probably still to go to the restaurant direct.

Move fast and break even

US delivery behemoth DoorDash reported their full year 2021 results on Wednesday, shaking off some doubts that food delivery demand would slow amidst re-opening with 369 million orders coming through the platform in the final quarter of last year.

That number was ahead of expectations, and sent DoorDash’s share price higher, but it still wasn’t enough for the company to make a net profit, instead notching a $155m loss.

That’s not a surprise to anyone familiar with the industry. Some great research from our friends at McKinsey suggests the economics of food delivery are still challenging for everyone involved – delivery companies, drivers and restaurants.

www.chartr.com

10. 34 Things You Need to Give Up to Be Successful

INC…BY BENJAMIN HARDY, PH.D., CONTRIBUTOR, INC.COM@BENJAMINPHARDY

1. Wasting five minutes.

When you have five minutes of down time, how do you spend that time? Most people use it as an excuse to rest or laze.

By lazing for five five-minute breaks each day, we waste 25 minutes daily. That’s 9,125 minutes per year (25 X 365). Sadly, my guess is we’re wasting far more time than that.

I was once told by my ninth-grade English teacher that if I read every time I had a break?–?even if the break was just for a minute or two?–?that I’d get a lot more reading done than expected. She was right. Every time I finished my work early, or had a spare moment, I’d pick up a book and read.

How 4 Top Performers Maintain Their Mental and Physical Wellbeing How we spend our periodic five-minute breaks is a determining factor in what we achieve in our lives. Every little bit adds up.Why can we justify wasting so much time?

2. Not valuing one dollar.

I was recently in Wal-Mart with my mother-in-law buying a few groceries. While we were in the check-out line, I pointed an item out to her I thought was interesting (I honestly can’t remember what it was anymore).

What stuck out to me is that she said, “One dollar. That’s a lot of money!”

Why this surprised me is that my in-laws are not short of money. Actually, this happened while we were on a family trip (30-plus people) at Disney World?–?the whole thing being paid for by them.

Understanding the value of one dollar is the same as coming to appreciate the value of time. To thoughtlessly spend one dollar may not seem like a big deal, but it actually is. That frivolous spending compounded over a long enough time could be millions. It also reflects a lack of care about the details, which is where the true art and value lies.

Additionally, most millionaires are self-made, 80 percent being first-generation rich, and 75 percent being self-employed. Not getting paid hourly challenges you to take more responsibility for every minute and every dollar. Consequently, a great majority of millionaires are extremely frugal with?–?or at least highly mindful? of–?their money.

3. Believing success will make you happy.

“One of the enemies of happiness is adaptation,” says Thomas Gilovich, a Cornell psychologist who has studied the relationship between money and happiness for more than two decades.

“We buy things to make us happy, and we succeed. But only for a while. New things are exciting to us at first, but then we adapt to them,” Gilovich further states.

Actually, savoring the anticipation or idea of a desired outcome is generally more satisfying than the outcome itself. Once we get what we want?–?whether that’s wealth, health, or excellent relationships?–?we adapt and the excitement fades. Often, the experiences we’re seeking end up being underwhelming and even disappointing.

I love watching this phenomenon in our foster kids. They feel like they need a certain toy or the universe will explode. Their whole world revolves around getting this one thing. Yet once we buy the toy for them, it’s not long before the joy fades and they want something else.

Until you appreciate what you currently have, more won’t make your life better.

4. Believing you’re not up for the challenge.

Just as we deceive ourselves into believing something will make us happier than it will, we also deceive ourselves into believing something will be harder than it will.

The longer you procrastinate or avoid doing something, the more painful (in your head) it becomes. However, once you take action, the discomfort is far less severe than you imagined. Even to extremely difficult things, humans adapt.

I recently sat on a plane with a lady who has 17 kids. Yes, you read that correctly. After having eight of her own, she and her husband felt inspired to foster four siblings, whom they later adopted. A few years later, they took on another five foster siblings, whom they also adopted.

Of course, the initial shock to the system impacted her entire family. But they’re handling it. And believe it or not, you could handle it too, if you had to.

The problem with dread and fear is that it holds people back from taking on big challenges. What you will find, no matter how big or small the challenge, is that you will adapt to it.

When you consciously adapt to enormous stress, you evolve.

5. Pursuing “happiness.”

There is no way to happiness?–?happiness is the way. ?–?Thich Nhat Hanh

Most people believe they must:

  • first have something (e.g., money, time, or love)
  • before they can do something (e.g., travel the world, write a book, start a business, or have a romantic relationship),
  • that will ultimately allow them to be something (e.g., happy, peaceful, content, motivated, or in love).

Paradoxically, this “have?-?do?-?be” paradigm must actually be reversed for you to experience happiness, success, or anything else you desire:

  • First, be whatever it is you want to be (e.g., happy, compassionate, peaceful, wise, or loving);
  • then, you can start doing things from this space of being; and
  • almost immediately, what you are doing will bring you the things you want to have.

You attract what you are. If you want the things happy people have, you must be happy to get those things. If you want things wealthy people have, you must be and live wealthy to have those things.

Results translate from attitudes and behaviors. Not the other ways around.

6. Undervaluing what you have.

In an interview at the annual Genius Network Event in 2013, Tim Ferriss was asked, “With all of your various roles, do you ever get stressed out? Do you ever feel like you’ve taken on too much?”

Ferriss responded:

Of course I get stressed out. If anyone says they don’t get stressed out, they’re lying. But one thing that mitigates that is taking time each morning to declare and focus on the fact that “I have enough.” I have enough. I don’t need to worry about responding to every email each day. If they get mad, that’s their problem.

Ferriss was later asked during the same interview:

Having read The 4-Hour Workweek, I got the impression that Tim Ferriss doesn’t care about money. You talked about how you travel the world without spending any money. Talk about the balance and ability to let go of caring about making money.

Ferriss responded:

It’s totally OK to have lots of nice things. If it is addiction to wealth, like in Fight Club, “the things you own end up owning you,” and it becomes a surrogate for things like long-term health and happiness?–?connection?–?then it becomes a disease state. But if you can have nice things, and not fear having them taken away, then it’s a good thing. Because money is a really valuable tool.

If you appreciate what you already have, then more will be a good thing in your life. If you feel the need to have more to compensate for something missing in your life, you’ll always be left wanting no matter how much you acquire or achieve.

7. Downplaying your current position.

It’s easy to talk about how hard our lives are. It’s easy to talk about how unfair life is, and to believe that we got the short-end of the stick.

But does this kind of talking really help anyone?

When we judge our situation as worse than someone else’s, we are ignorantly and incorrectly saying, “You’ve got it easy. You’re not like me. Success should come easy to you, because you haven’t had to deal with what I’ve gone through.”

This paradigm has formally become known as the victim mentality, and it generally leads to feelings of entitlement.

The world owes you nothing. Life isn’t meant to be fair. However, the world has also given you everything you need. The truth is, you have every advantage in the world to succeed. And by believing this in your bones, you’ll feel an enormous weight of responsibility to yourself and the world.

You’ve been put in a perfect position to succeed. Everything in the universe has brought you to this point so you can now shine and change the world. The world is your oyster. Your natural state is to thrive. All you have to do is show up.

8. Compartmentalizing your life.

Human beings are holistic. When you change a part of any system you simultaneously change the whole. You can’t change a part without fundamentally changing everything.

Every pebble of thought?–?no matter how inconsequential?–?creates endless ripples of consequence. This idea, coined the butterfly effect by Edward Lorenz, came from the metaphorical example of a hurricane being influenced by minor signals, such as the flapping of the wings of a distant butterfly, several weeks earlier. Little things become big things.

When one area of your life is out of alignment, every area of your life suffers. You can’t compartmentalize a working system. Although it’s easy to push certain areas?–?like your health and relationships?–?to the side, you unwittingly infect your whole life. Eventually and always, the essentials you avoid will catch up to your detriment.

Conversely, when you improve one area of your life, all other areas are positively influenced. As James Allen wrote in As a Man Thinketh, “When a man makes his thoughts pure, he no longer desires impure food.”

We are holistic systems.

Humanity as a whole is the same way. Everything you do effects the whole world, for better or worse. So I invite you to ask:

Am I part of the cure? Or am I part of the disease? ?–?Coldplay

9. Competing with other people.

All failed companies are the same: They failed to escape competition. ?–?Peter Thiel

Competition is extremely costly to maximum product reach and wealth creation. It becomes a battle of who can slightly out-do the other for cheaper and cheaper. It’s a race to the bottom for all parties involved.

Instead of trying to compete with other people or businesses, it’s better to do something completely novel or to focus on a tightly defined niche. Once you’ve established yourself as an authority on something, you can set your own terms rather than reactively responding to the competition. Thus, you want to monopolize the space in which you create value.

Competing with others leads people to spend every day of their lives pursuing goals that aren’t really their own, but rather what society has deemed important. You could spend your whole life trying to keep up, but will probably have a shallow life. Or, you can define success for yourself based on your own values and detach yourself from the noise.

10. Trying to have it all.

Every decision has opportunity cost. When you choose one thing, you simultaneously don’t choose several others. When people say you can have it all, they are lying. They are almost certainly not practicing what they preach and are trying to sell you on something.

The truth is, you don’t want it all. And even if you did, reality simply doesn’t work that way. For example, I’ve come to terms with the fact that I want my family to be the center of my life. Spending time with my wife and three foster kids is my top priority. As a result, I can’t spend 12 or 15 hours a day working, as some people do. And that’s OK. I’ve made my choice.

And that’s the point. We all need to choose what matters most to us, and own that. If we attempt to be everything, we’ll end up being nothing. Internal conflict is hell.

Although the traditional view of creativity is that it is unstructured and doesn’t follow rules, creativity usually occurs by when you think inside the proverbial box, not outside of it. People flex their creative muscles when they constrain their options rather than broaden them. Hence, the more clearly defined and constraining your life’s objectives, the better, because it allows you to sever everything outside those objectives.

https://www.inc.com/benjamin-p-hardy/34-things-you-need-to-give-up-to-be-successful.html?cid=sf01003&sr_share=facebook

Topley’s Top 10 – February 21, 2022

1.The Ratio of Negative Earnings Guidance is the Worst in a Decade

From Callum Thomas Chart Storm Earnings Guidance: From boom to gloom. One explainer for this chart is the fact that the pandemic gifted a lot of companies a *one-off* surge/pulling-forward in growth (e.g. zoom, peloton, netflix, etc) — something that could not be repeated. Add to that rising cost pressures and signs of a slip in growth momentum and the picture below begins to seem the obvious outcome.

Source:  @C_Barraud  Callum Thomas https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/


2. Fed Raising Rates in an Expensive Market

Zerohedge –But an even bigger risk to the upcoming tightening cycle, where banks are now rushing to outbid each other on how many rate hikes they think the Fed will let loose before sending the economy into a recession, is that as Bank of America’s Savita Subramanian writes, the “key risk today is that the Fed is tightening into an overvalued market.”

Indeed, the S&P 500 today is more expensive ahead of the first rate hike than any other cycle besides 1999-00 (23x P/E vs. 30 P/E) and everyone remember what happened to the Nasdaq then. Making matters worse, this time the real cost of debt is negative, where in ‘99, the cost of equity was negative. The Fed Funds rate increased by 150bp during that cycle, and the market was up during the hiking, but the S&P peaked in March of 2000, and subsequently declined by 49% over the next 2.5 years

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/historical-guide-how-stocks-perform-during-tightening-cycles


3. Crude Oil First Weekly Loss in 8 Weeks.

Bespoke –The rally over the past few months has been very consistent for crude oil. In fact, crude oil is on pace for its first weekly loss in eight weeks.  Historically, it has been uncommon for crude oil to rally for such a long span. Since 1983, there have only been five other weekly winning streaks that have also gone on for at least 8 weeks in a row. The most recent of these ended at nine weeks last October.

Below we show the performance of crude oil following each time that it has ended a winning streak of at least 6 weeks, of which there have been 24 since 1983.  Performance following the end of these streaks has been mixed with positive performance around 50% of the time one week, one month, six months, and one year later across these instances.  Three returns, however, have more consistently seen positive returns which have on average been larger than the norm.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/crude-oil-snapping-a-historic-winning-streak


4. 10 Year Treasury Yield Now Higher than S&P Dividend Yield

Lawrence C. Strauss Barrons

https://www.barrons.com/articles/rising-treasury-yields-are-diminishing-the-appeal-of-dividend-stocks-51645215301?mod=past_editions


5. Nasdaq Composite Bearish Technical Indicator….50day Crosses Below 200day

Nasdaq is testing previous low…see if it breaks this week

www.stockcharts.com


6. Microcap Stocks -25% Correction from Highs.

Microcap ETF bounce but full correction of 25% top to bottom

IWC Microcap also breaking BLUE uptrend line going back to 2020

www.stockcharts.com


7. Homebuilders Break Previous Lows

Homebuilder ETF breaks October 2021 Lows

Homebuilders breaking an uptrend BLUE line going back to 2020….$69 would be clean break on chart

www.stockcharts.com


8. Housing Battle Between Massive Demand vs. Low Supply …And Now Possible Lack of Affordability (high prices/rising rates)

Home Supply is Finally Coming as Building Permits Hit Highest Levels Since May 2006

@Charlie Bilello The US Housing Boom continues with Building Permits rising to their highest levels since May 2006.

Powered by YCharts

Incredibly, the Fed is still stimulating, with holdings of mortgage-backed securities hitting another record high.

Image

Powered by YCharts

Incredibly, the Fed is still stimulating, with holdings of mortgage-backed securities hitting another record high.

Image

But this is all set to end in March (QE over, first rate hike), and the markets are quickly adjusting to that new reality. The 30-Year Mortgage rate in the US has moved up to 3.92%, its highest level since May 2019. The problem for home buyers? Housing prices are up 32% since May 2019 with many areas of the country (Phoenix, Tampa, Miami, Las Vegas, San Diego, etc.) up even more. That means affordability for new buyers is falling fast.


9. Here’s How Jeff Bezos Spends His Money

Kate PrinceBusiness  Investing.com

1. Cruising the Aegean Sea

Year Purchased: 2021
Estimated Value: $70 million* (Price of Eos yacht)

Before Jeff Bezos went to space in 2021, he went on a cruise. He was spotted visiting the Greek Islands aboard a super-luxurious yacht. He went on a cruise of the beautiful Aegean Sea, and he was spotted having dinner at Omega3, a cosmopolitan restaurant in Platis Gialos, located on Sifnos, a Cycladic Island.

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Bezos wasn’t alone for this cruise. He went sailing with his fellow billionaire businessman, Barry Diller. Diller’s wife is famed fashion designer Diane von Furstenberg. Also along for the trip was Anderson Cooper, a journalist and anchor at CNN. The trio sailed on Eos, one of the world’s largest sailing yachts. Eos is owned by Diller.

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2. Dog sledding above the Arctic Circle in Norway

Year Purchased: 2018
Estimated Value: $150-$250*

The Arctic Circle runs straight through the middle of Norway, and it is one of the country’s biggest tourist attractions. Not everyone can afford to travel there, but Jeff Bezos certainly can. The billionaire not only took a vacation there; he also dog-sledded, posting a lot of pictures from his vacation.

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above the Arctic Circle in Norway @JeffBezos / Twitter.co

Bezos talked about going dog sledding above the Norwegian Arctic Circle, saying on Twitter that it inspired him to “go to space to save the Earth.” He said that he believes Earth is the solar system’s “best planet,” and we have “no plan B” to save it.

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3. A “robot dog”

Year Purchased: 2018
Estimated Value: $75,000*

Robots of any kind are impressive and worthy of a few thousand dollars, but what about a robot dog? They aren’t quite as easy to cuddle up with at night, but that didn’t stop Boston Dynamics from creating the SpotMini. Jeff was pictured with the new dog in 2018.

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It’s thought that Spot costs around $75,000, but what do you get for that price? Apparently, a 55-pound pooch can race around the garden for 90 minutes before needing to be charged up again. Doesn’t sound quite as fun as Fido, does he?

4. Wimbledon Tickets

Year Purchased: 2019
Estimated Value: $1,300 per day*

Jeff Bezos made his public debut with his new girlfriend, Lauren Sanchez, in 2019. He and Sanchez attended the men’s Wimbledon final, which saw a thrilling match between Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic. He and his girlfriend sat right behind the Royal Family during their five-hour viewing of the match.

Wimbledon tickets aren’t cheap, especially if you’re sitting in the front row. Celebrities, from actors to musicians to CEOs, have been seen at the famed tennis match, smiling for the camera. Tickets can cost up to $1,300 a day for the best seats in the house, like the ones Bezos and Sanchez had.

5. 11-Minute Flight to Space

Year Purchased: 2021
Estimated Value: $4.4 billion*

Jeff Bezos described his adventure in his Blue Origin New Shepard capsule, which is autonomous and doesn’t require a pilot, as “the best day ever.” The eleven-minute spaceflight included the billionaire and three crew members, one of which was the oldest person to travel to space and the other the youngest.

The spaceflight cost $4.4 billion. Bezos’ entire flight was eleven minutes, but he only spent three of them actually in space. The flight wasn’t overly risky, as the New Shepard capsule had never had an accident in fifteen spaceflight tests. Blue Origin was founded in 2000, and, twenty-one years later, Bezos saw the fruits of his company’s labor.

6. Wind Farm in Ireland

Year Purchased: 2021-2022
Estimated Value: $23 million*

Jeff Bezos recently stepped down from his position as the head of Amazon to focus on his more pressing interests: space travel and eco-friendly energy generation. He’s attempting to achieve the latter through three wind farms which are located in the remote Irish town of Esk, near Balligree.

The 23-megawatt farms are the first to be built using all-private funding. Bezos commissioned the windfarms in the hopes of using power to offset carbon emissions that Amazon data centers, also located in Ireland, emit. The first of the three wind farms opened in 2021. The other two are expected to become operational by 2022.

7. Four City Blocks in Seattle

Year Purchased: 2012
Estimated Value: Part of the $4 billion Amazon campus*

In order to make the huge Amazon campus that he dreamed of, Jeff had to buy the land first. Incredibly, the Amazon campus in Seattle runs across four whole blocks. That’s an incredibly large area of land that would have cost a fortune to purchase.

It’s not clear just how much Bezos spent on it, but it would have been an eye-watering amount of money. Still, every tech giant needs its state-of-the-art HQ and Amazonwasn’t about to fall behind when everyone else was racing forward.

8. Google

Year Purchased: 1998
Estimated Value: $1.885 trillion*

Google currently has a market cap of nearly $2 trillion, making it one of few companies to achieve this feat. In 1998, things looked a lot differently for Google. The tech company’s headquarters, run by Larry Page and Sergey Brin, were in a garage in Menlo Park, California.

Jeff Bezos saw something in the tiny company, and he invested $250,000 into the venture. The investment in the startup is now up 20,000% today, and Bezos has cashed in on his now 3.3 million shares of stock. These shares are worth over $3 billion today. Bezos’ Google investment is yet another example of how his belief in tiny startups has made him billions.

9. Uber

Year Purchased: 2011
Estimated Value: $76.54 billion*

Though Amazon, as a company, has invested in Uber competitors, Jeff Bezos has his bet on a different horse. The tech billionaire put $3 million into the ride-sharing company, and he watched that investment pay off handsomely. Now, that paltry-seeming $3 million is worth around $400 million.

Bezos was one of the first investors in the app. Benchmark invested $30 million, and the company made $7.9 billion from its early investment. Bezos has an eye for good business opportunities, and he definitely placed the correct bet with this multi-million investment. Even Travis Kalanick, the ousted founder of Uber, made $9 billion from his 8.6% stake.

10. Whole Foods Market

Year Purchased: 2017
Estimated Value: $13.7 billion*

There’s a lot of money to be made in online groceries – and Jeff knows it. He’s been trying to break into the online grocery games since 2007, but despite creating AmazonFresh, it never really became a big player.

Jeff didn’t give up his dream though, and purchased Whole Foods through Amazon for $13.7 billion in 2017. This certainly helped boost Amazon’s position, but it’s still a big work in progress. Buying a trusted brand, Whole Foods, was a smart move on Jeff’s part and could be the key to future success.

 

https://za.investing.com/magazine/how-jeff-bezos-spends-his-money/?utm_source=Yahoo&utm_medium=cpm&utm_campaign=423353958&origin=yahoo&yp[campaign_id]=423353958&yp[adgroup_id]=9799388008&yp[ad_id]=37697082394&yp[network]=n&yp[device]=c&yp[publisher_id]=FINANCE_US&site_id=finance.yahoo.com&im_dars=1x100_3x102_5x171_7x904&vmcid=p%24g%2co%241c694064-9269-11ec-ba7e-008cfac348d0-7fea37938700%2ct%241645374068660


10. How to Turn Discipline into Consistency

Farnam Street Tiny Thought–One of the most practical life skills that no one talks about is turning discipline into consistency. Discipline will only take you so far. It’s hard to be consistently disciplined. 

Relying on discipline to do what you know you should do requires a lot of effort. But what if you could take that discipline and turn it into something that happens without much effort?

Consider my twelve-year-old son who has about an hour of homework a night with his Grade 7 class. If we relied on discipline to get that homework done, it would be a mess. Sure, some nights it would be easy but other nights it wouldn’t. I can almost hear the excuses now. “Dad, I don’t feel like doing it now. I’ll do it later.” In the end, what he did would depend on how he felt.

Doing things when you feel like doing them won’t get you the results you want. If you don’t feel like doing your job, you get fired. If you give it 50% because you don’t feel like practicing, you sit on the bench while other kids play in the game. If you don’t feel like studying, you get a crappy mark. That’s not to say that feelings are not important — they are — but they’re also a luxury when it comes to doing things.

The most successful people consistently do the thing they’re great at. They do it on easy days and they do it on hard days. They do it when they feel like it and when they don’t. Only what I’ve learned is that they’re not more disciplined than you or I. So how do they do it? The answer is they create a ritual.

The power of rituals can be easy to overlook because they seem so simple. Rituals include habits, systems, and even group traditions.

Once started, rituals are hard to stop. Think of rituals as anything structured that creates inertia. Not all inertia is positive. Your rituals can work for you or against you. And their mechanical neutrality is key to using them to your advantage.

Instead of relying on motivation to do homework, we started a ritual after school. Come home, shower, get a snack, and start your homework. As the days turn to weeks the structure takes hold and becomes the path of least resistance. Now, he consistently does homework every day, even when he doesn’t feel like it. The ritual took over.

What looks like skill is often just consistency. While you can’t snap your fingers and become more talented, you can create your own talent. Consistency creates talent. And you won’t be consistent if you only do things when you feel like it.

When people seem uncommonly disciplined, look for a powerful ritual hiding in plain sight. It’s not that they have more discipline than you or I, but they were able to turn that discipline into consistency with a ritual. Short-term results come from intensity but long-term results come from consistency. Turning intensity into consistency unlocks a powerful asymmetry.

(Share This Tiny Thought on Twitter). 

Explore Your Curiosity

★ “There’s this premise that the success of player depends on ability, which is made up of technical, physical, tactical and phycological aspects, and that this is then multiplied by their availability,” the doctor points out during the interview. “Many players have told me that Arjen Robben could have been close to Cristiano Ronaldo or Lionel Messi in ability, but he didn’t make it because he didn’t have much availability.”

https://fs.blog

Topley’s Top 10 – February 18, 2022

1.One Year…..XLE Energy ETF +50% vs. XBI Biotech -43%

www.yahoofinance.com


2. After underperforming Growth for 11 of the last 15 calendar years, Value leads Growth by 9% in 2022, its best relative start to a year on record.

Joseph Carr Dow Jones 

https://www.linkedin.com/in/joseph-carr-5416907/


3. Copper-Gold Ratio vs. Interest Rates.

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright–Gold’s repeated failures to breakout could likely be stemming, at least in part, to the likelihood of rising real yields given a fading base effect and hawkish stance from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Rising real yields (nominal yield less inflation) typically act as a headwind for precious metals, a topic further detailed in this article.

A tangent technical trend to this conversation is the tightening spread in the copper-gold ratio. Like gold over the past year, copper (HG/) prices have traded between about $4 and $4.80, which has led to a stall out in the copper-gold ratio and an opportunity for interest rates to close the gap. We saw similar behavior in 2012 when the copper-gold ratio flatlined, rates diverged, and then subsequently rebounded. Note that the rebound in rates eventually coincided with an uptick in the copper-gold ratio, so if history rhymes, this could also add skepticism to a sizeable precious metals rally.

https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright


4. ”Low Volatility” ETF is Down 2% More than S&P YTD

SPLV Low Volatility ETF vs S&P

www.yahoofinance.com


5. Banks vs. Tech YTD

KRE Regional Bank ETF vs QQQ Tech


6. Fed Balance Sheet Overly with Nasdaq and S&P

Guggenheim

https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/perspectives/global-cio-outlook/forget-raising-rates-shrink-the-balance-sheet


7. Bond mutual funds have now experienced two consecutive weeks of outflows totaling $30 billion

Advisor Perspectives Bond Funds Lurk as a Challenge to Fed’s Inflation Fight-by Eric Balchunas, 2/16/22

Bond funds are in a bad spot, and it will probably get worse.

A crash to Earth for growth stocks and cryptocurrencies is one thing, but a sharp decline in mainstream bond mutual funds could spell enormous trouble. Signs are emerging of the beginnings of a potential downward spiral in these funds, which could ultimately lead to redemption halts and subsequent panic by retail investors. That could pose the biggest challenge to the Federal Reserve’s plans to tame inflation through rate increases and quantitative tightening.

Bond mutual funds have now experienced two consecutive weeks of outflows totaling $30 billion, with exchange-traded funds adding an additional $10 billion. It may not seem like a big deal — and it isn’t yet — but these funds almost always take in cash, and it doesn’t take long for a little outflow to become a lot. Moreover, the last two times these funds experienced periods of significant outflows, the Fed did or said something dovish to turn it around. Now these outflows may not have been the cause of the central bank’s actions — although they were most likely at least a factor given how these funds manage more than $5 trillion of aging baby boomers’ retirement investments — but they are correlated. At least as of late.

The problem for these funds is they own a bunch of bonds that are going to be worth less if all the new bonds coming out offer higher yields. That’s why the prices of bonds are down and their returns are diminishing. And there’s really nowhere to hide. Corporates, Treasuries, mortgages, long term, short term, international, you name it, they are all red this year. And when bond funds start posting negative returns, money tends to start flowing out.

When they experience outflows, they usually start by dipping into their cash or selling any bond ETFs that they own as liquidity reserves. This is already taking place; the most liquid bond ETFs — HYG, LQD and TLT, for example — are experiencing billions of dollars in outflows already this year. Mom-and-pop investors aren’t selling these ETFs; they are professional money managers. Once they sell all their ETFs and the outflows continue, they will have to sell actual bonds, which will lower prices and result in negative returns, which will spark more outflows which will force them to sell more bonds which will lower prices and their returns. You get the idea. This downward spiral would start to dry up liquidity in the bond market and could ultimately lead to the fund having to halt redemptions. Panic would ensue.

The prospect of halting redemptions — and their much larger size — is why bond mutual funds are arguably a bigger risk to market stability, and the Fed’s hawkish plans, than bond ETFs, which many have pegged as the most serious threat. While ETFs won’t escape misery, they have only a fifth of the assets, and they have the release valve of trading on an exchange. Their shares may trade at a discount to net asset value, but they will trade.

I’m not the only one pointing out this potential problem. Janet Yellen said the same thing a year after the March 2020 crisis in response to questions from Senator Elizabeth Warren:

“I believe it is important to look very carefully at the risks posed by the asset-management industry, including BlackRock and other firms. FSOC began to do that, I believe, in 2016 and 2017, but the risks it focused on were ones having to do with open-end mutual funds that can experience massive withdrawals and be forced to sell off assets that could create fire sales. That is actually a risk we saw materialize last spring in March.”

Had the Fed not stepped in and thrown the kitchen sink at the bond market at that time, it’s entirely likely that some of the country’s biggest mutual funds would have halted their redemptions. They experienced two consecutive weeks of $90 billion outflows. One example is the $143 billion Pimco Income Fund, which declined 13% in the 30 days before the Fed acted. This triggered outflows of about $14 billion. All in all, the fund shrank 18% in a few weeks. How much more of this could the Pimco fund have withstood before it would have needed to halt redemptions? In India, where the central bank didn’t act as aggressively as the Fed did in the U.S., Franklin Templeton halted redemptions on about half a dozen of its active bond funds.

Of course, it’s possible that outflows from bond mutual funds are much more orderly — or even reverse and turn to inflows — and that these funds are able to adapt to the rising rate environment without the downward spiral kicking in. But as the Fed embarks on tightening monetary policy, investors and policy makers need to keep a close eye on which way the money flows and how funds are able to respond.

Bloomberg News provided this article. For more articles like this please visit bloomberg.com.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2022/02/16/bond-funds-lurk-as-a-challenge-to-feds-inflation-fight


8. Tesla Falls in Consumer Reports Ranking After Design Changes

Bloomberg-Tesla Inc. sank toward the bottom of Consumer Reports’ newest annual auto brand rankings, weighed down by poorly received design changes and reliability problems.

The electric-car maker placed No. 23 out of 32 brands on the 2021 list, down seven spots from the year before, Consumer Reports said Thursday. Tesla’s Model 3 was also beaten out as the “top pick” for 2022 in the electric-vehicle category by Ford Motor Co.’s Mustang Mach-E.

By Sean O’Kane  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-17/tesla-tumbles-in-consumer-reports-ranking-after-design-changes?sref=GGda9y2L


9. Miami becomes least affordable housing market in the US

From Morning Brew https://www.morningbrew.com/daily

Home prices are rising at a faster clip than wages By Katherine Kallergis

(iStock/Illustration by Shea Monahan for The Real Deal)

Miami is the most expensive housing market in the country, surpassing New York, according to a RealtyHop report.

Home prices in Miami have soared during the pandemic, propelled by the migration of out-of-state buyers and renters, many of whom have moved from the Northeast. Wages, meanwhile, have not risen at the same pace.

A household in the city of Miami would have to contribute 78.7 percent of its income toward homeownership costs, according to RealtyHop’s February affordability index. That’s based on a median home price of $589,000 and a projected median household income of $43,401.

Miami has moved higher in the ranking of least affordable cities for housing in recent months, eclipsing Los Angeles in October to take the No. 2 spot.

New York became the second least affordable city in February. A household in New York City would have to spend close to 78 percent of its income on homeownership costs, including mortgage payments and property taxes. That’s based on a median annual household income of $68,259 and median home price of $970,000.

In third-ranking Los Angeles, households can expect to spend 74.2 percent of their annual incomes on housing, based on a median income of $68,733 and a median home price of $925,000.

RealtyHop analyzes homeownership affordability across the country’s 100 most populous cities.

To remain below the threshold for cost-burdened housing, homeowners and renters should spend no more than 30 percent of their income on housing.

“What we’ve been seeing since the pandemic is Miami is the destination for a lot of out-of-state residents,” said RealtyHop data scientist Shane Lee. “These people often bring in more money than [locals].”

Rents have also jumped exponentially. One report found that rents in Miami rose 38 percent, the highest gains nationwide, in 2021.

Much of the local workforce, including those in healthcare, education and first responders, are priced out of homeownership. A Florida Realtors report found that home health care and personal care aides, earning the least out of 17 occupations studied, would need to earn more than three times their median annual salary to purchase a home, and nearly double their salary to rent a one-bedroom unit.

Last year, Miami ranked 16th in the country for cities with the biggest increases in median home asking prices, according to RealtyHop. The median price rose 17 percent in 2021 to $580,000. Austin experienced the biggest increase, up nearly 28 percent to $535,000.

“Miami has become increasingly unaffordable especially for those local residents. They’re the ones who increasingly struggle with homeownership,” Lee said. “It’s the same reason why Austin was the hottest market [in 2021].”

Lee and other experts predict price growth will slow as interest rates rise, but sales will continue to increase.

Miami Most Expensive US Housing Market (therealdeal.com)


10. How One Person Can Change the Conscience of an Organization

by Nicholas W. Eyrich,and Robert E. Quinn,

Summary.   While corporate transformations are almost universally assumed to be top-down processes, in reality, middle managers, and first-line supervisors can make significant change when they have the right mindset. Dr. Tadataka Yamada was one of dozens of executives…more

In December 2000, when Dr. Tadataka Yamada became the new chairman of research and development at Glaxo SmithKline, he was horrified to learn that his company was a complainant in a lawsuit over access to drug therapies for HIV/AIDS patients. GSK was one of 39 pharmaceutical companies charging Nelson Mandela and the government of South Africa with violating price protections and intellectual property rights in their efforts to access lower priced antiretroviral drugs. Close to 25 percent of black South Africans were living with HIV/AIDS and at the time, antiretroviral therapies cost approximately $1000 per month—more than a third of the average South African’s annual salary, putting treatment out of reach for most patients.

Yamada held discussions with his research staff and quickly learned that he was not alone in his opposition to the lawsuit. The team wanted to be a part of the solution to global health issues, not party to a lawsuit preventing such drugs from reaching those in dire need, but they felt they lacked the power to change the company’s direction. Yamada felt differently. In one-on-one meetings with individual board members of GSK, he stressed the company’s moral responsibility to alleviate human suffering and tied it to the long-term success of the company. He stated that GSK can’t make medicines that save lives and then not allow people access to them. He noted the public relations disaster associated with the lawsuit, and set forth a vision, co-created by his team, for how GSK could also become a leader in the fight against TB and malaria, diseases that also were disproportionately impacting third-world populations. The external pressure did not abate, with protests against many drug companies around the world.

In April, 2001, all 39 companies dropped the lawsuit against Nelson Mandela; GSK and others reduced the prices of antiretroviral drugs by 90% or more. Furthermore, under Yamada’s direction, one of GSK’s major laboratories in Tres Cantos, Spain, was converted into a profit-exempt laboratory that focused only on diseases in the developing world, including malaria and tuberculosis. Using his influence, Dr. Yamada also spurred GSK into allocating resources for affordable access to medications and development of future therapies. Subsequently top executives at GSK became leaders in global health issues. Andrew Witty assumed the CEO position at GlaxoSmithKline in 2008 and became one of the leading spokespersons for global health in the pharmaceutical industry. Chris Viehbacher, corporate executive team member at GSK, subsequently became the CEO of Sanofi, and a champion of global health. Both have since partnered with the Gates Foundation on global health initiatives.

Most people would love to be a part of such an amazing turn of events, yet this kind of transformation doesn’t happen very often. While many helped with these efforts, what made it possible for Dr. Yamada to step forward with a steady voice and a sound vision? In several interviews with Dr. Yamada we identified four key mindsets that helped him catalyze this transformation.

The power of one.

A single person with a clarity of conscience and a willingness to speak up can make a difference. Contributing to the greater good is a deep and fundamental human need. When a leader, even a mid-level or lower level leader, skillfully brings a voice and a vision, others will follow and surprising things can happen—even culture change on a large scale. While Yamada did not set out to change a culture, his actions were catalytic and galvanized the organization. As news of the new “not for profit” focus of Tres Cantos spread, many of GSK’s top scientists volunteered to work there. Yamada’s voice spoke for many others, offering a clear path and a vision for a more positive future for all.

The power of sequential skill building.

Prior to GSK, Yamada had a lot of practice with smaller challenges, from caring for the most complex patients in the intensive care unit, to becoming a department head and national leader in his field. Along the way he also led other efforts to change the status quo by actively helping more African Americans and women to join the gastroenterology faculty at the University of Michigan. The lesson is not to underestimate any chance you have, even if small, to hone your skills of challenging the status quo for the greater good. Train your “courage for challenging convention” muscle consistently, so that it’s ready when needed. At GSK, he first invited the input of his team, ultimately resulting in the plan to convert the Tres Cantos laboratory to a “not for profit” disease focus. He did not wait for someone else to speak out first, or for a committee to be formed to study the issue. He had built the skills to quickly recognize the problem, and also to advocate for a better way—a way GSK could become a leader in the fight against diseases that might not be profitable but would help countless individuals in dire need.

The power of sustained focus and determination.

It’s easy to say, “This will take some doing; I’ll think about it later.” Combined with an unconscious “This could be dangerous for my career,” it can be easy for tough challenges to gradually slip from focus. Over time the unacceptable can become the norm, and the energy for change dissipates. But Yamada didn’t accept the unacceptable; his focus and determination were well honed. He emigrated from Japan as a teenager and entered the demanding field of medicine. Along the way he took up marathon running and edited a seminal 3440-page textbook of Gastroenterology, among many other achievements. Attacking challenges was not just an occasional adventure—it’s been a way of being, as well as a highly successful career path. Assuring success of the Tres Cantos lab was not accomplished with a simple signature on a document. The laboratory was initially funded by GSK with the expectation that the researchers would soon obtain external grants so the output from the lab would not have expectations of making a profit for GSK. Partnerships with many organizations and universities were also initiated and sustained to help support this work.

The power of using privilege to support people with less privilege.

While such a mindset is not required for transformation to occur, most would agree that it’s even better, and more rewarding, when transformation also helps those with less privilege. Dr. Yamada, trained over many years in the “patient first” culture of medicine, had a well-honed awareness of the larger change he could bring because of his voice, and a vision for the positive impact GSK could bring to South Africa—and other countries in dire need of low cost, life-saving drugs to treat HIV, TB, and malaria. His team, and ultimately many others at GSK, shared a desire to help those less fortunate. The work done by the Tres Cantos lab continues to impact countless people in poverty suffering from TB, malaria, and many other diseases.

Speaking of the lawsuit that sparked his transformational leadership, Yamada said: “It was obvious we could reduce the price, but beyond that I felt it was really important for the company to make a commitment to making medicines for people where we might not make profit, but where we could have huge medical impact.”

With the support and efforts of many at GSK, this positive vision and pathway for action reverberated across the organization and helped energize a culture shift. The changes catalyzed by Yamada continued after he left GSK in 2006 to become President of the Global Health Program at the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Today GSK is one of the top pharmaceutical companies for global drug access and global health initiatives. In just the past 3 years Tres Cantos researchers have co-authored over 100 scholarly research publications. The laboratory continues to provide independent researchers access to GSK facilities, expertise and resources to advance the understanding of diseases of the developing world.

Yamada was one of dozens of executives we spoke to over the last several years to learn how one can succeed in making positive change in large organizations. In these interviews, we heard accounts that reflect the mindsets Yamada described. In nearly every case we saw the power of one. In one example, a woman in a Fortune 50 company shared her experience in transforming her unit in Brazil. After being promoted to a senior position at headquarters, she saw the need for change, but the politics were more intense, and her previous experience seemed irrelevant. With unwavering focus, she pressed forward and succeeded. In reflecting on her success, she noted that challenging the status quo is a skill that one can develop, and it applies at every level. In another case, a woman in a Fortune 500 company was promoted to oversee a large but failing business line. The eight people who preceded her were all fired. She spent months examining the organization and formulated a strategic plan. It required serious work at the top. Her boss said no. Using all her acquired skills and courage, she led her boss until he was ready to change. The organization turned around.

These stories remind us that while corporate transformations are almost universally assumed to be top-down processes, in reality, middle managers, and first-line supervisors can make significant change when they have the right mindset.

https://hbr.org/2019/12/how-one-person-can-change-the-conscience-of-an-organization?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=hbr&utm_source=LinkedIn&tpcc=orgsocial_edit