Topley’s Top 10 – January 27, 2022

1. Small Cap Top to Bottom Full -20% Correction

Russell 2000 $240 to $192 yesterday’s low.

www.stockcharts.com

2. Worse First 16 Days for S&P Ever

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-24/the-market-has-never-plunged-10-this-fast-to-start-a-year?srnd=premium-europe&sref=ZVajCYcV&sref=GGda9y2L

3. Stocks Average One 10% Correction Per Year

LPL Research

https://lplresearch.com/2022/01/26/all-you-wanted-to-know-about-stock-market-corrections/

4. BUZZ -Chat Room MEME Stock ETF…-35%

Fund Description

VanEck Social Sentiment ETF (BUZZ) seeks to track, as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the BUZZ NextGen AI US Sentiment Leaders Index (BUZZTR), which is intended to track the performance of the 75 large cap U.S. stocks which exhibit the highest degree of positive investor sentiment and bullish perception based on content aggregated from online sources including social media, news articles, blog posts and other alternative datasets. https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/social-sentiment-etf-buzz/

Gamestop -64% correction before bounce last couple days

AMC -72% from highs at low this week

www.stockcharts.com

5. Number of Big Insider Sales Had Record Year 2021

Jonathan Barird–A long-time investment maxim is that it pays to watch the stock transactions of company insiders, for they are in the best position to know the future earnings prospects of their company’s. Indeed, academic studies have confirmed that extremes of insider buying or selling are a useful leading indicator of share prices. Various services exist that provide such data to sophisticated investors. https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathanbaird88/

6. Bill Ackman Buys NFLX on Pullback Close to Covid Lows.

NFLX pulls back close to March 2020 lows.

www.stockcharts.com

Marketwatch By Jon Swartz

Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman on Wednesday said his firm has purchased more than 3.1 million shares of Netflix Inc. NFLX, -1.83%, making it a top-20 holder. “The opportunity to acquire Netflix at an attractive valuation emerged when investors reacted negatively to the recent quarter’s subscriber growth and management’s short-term guidance. Netflix’s substantial stock price decline was further exacerbated by recent market volatility,” said Ackman, who is chief executive of Pershing Square Capital Management. He announced the investment on his Twitter account and in a press release. Netflix was not immediately available for comment.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bill-ackman-says-his-hedge-fund-just-bought-31-million-shares-of-netflix-2022-01-26?mod=home-page

7. Amazon to launch larger suburban Go stores

By Tonya Garcia

Amazon recently announced a high-tech clothing store in California

Larger-format Amazon Go stores are planned for suburban areas, with the first coming to Washington state

Amazon.com Inc. has announced plans to launch larger-format Go stores in suburban areas, starting with Mill Creek, Wash. in the coming months.

The Mill Creek Go store will cover 6,150 square feet, with the front area of the store spanning 3,240 square feet. The store will be equipped with Just Walk Out technology that allows customers to bypass a checkout line. Food and beverages, including beer and wine, will be available.

Amazon AMZN, 1.57% already has plans to open another Go store following the new format in the Los Angeles area.

The news comes shortly after Amazon announced plans for high-tech clothing store that will launch in Southern California.

And The Wall Street Journal reported last year on plans for larger stores that resemble department stores.

See: Kohl’s soars after takeover offer, but skeptical analysts question the retailer’s real-estate value

“We expect Prime member growth to continue with members spending more across additional categories,” wrote Stifel analysts in an earnings preview.

“Amazon continues to invest in developing and expanding Prime benefits, including Same-Day delivery expansion, video content and gaming. We expect Online Stores
sales growth to continue to decelerate in 4Q as the company compares against Prime Day in 4Q:20.”

Amazon will report fourth-quarter results on Feb. 3, according to the FactSet calendar.

Amazon stock has tumbled 15.8% over the past year while the S&P 500 index SPX, 1.63% has gained 13.2%.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/amazon-to-launch-larger-suburban-go-stores-11643123478?mod=home-page

8. A Record 559 Newly Scripted TV Shows Hit Last Year

Can’t find something good to watch in the evenings? That’s on you, unfortunately.

According to the latest data from FX Networks, there have never been more new original scripted series, with 559 hitting the small screen last year across cable, streaming services and broadcast TV in the US.

Death by choice

In 2010, there were just 216 new original scripted series, meaning that in just the last decade, your options for viewing have almost tripled (presuming you can access them all, which admittedly is a different question altogether). Overwhelmed by options? You’re probably not alone.

9. Open Table Reservations 2019-2022

Dan Stratemeier

Managing Director

Equities, Event Driven Strategies

10. How to Optimize Your Default Decisions

Here are a few strategies I have found useful when trying to design for default in my life:

Simplicity. It is hard to focus on the signal when you’re constantly surrounded by noise. It is more difficult to eat healthy when your kitchen is filled with junk food. It is more difficult to focus on reading a blog post when you have 10 tabs open in your browser. It is more difficult to accomplish your most important task when you fall into the myth of multitasking. When in doubt, eliminate options.

Visual Cues. In the supermarket, placing items on shelves at eye level makes them more visual and more likely to be purchased. Outside of the supermarket, you can use visual cues like the Paper Clip Method or the Seinfeld Strategy to create an environment that visually nudges your actions in the right direction.

Opt-Out vs. Opt-In. There is a famous organ donation study that revealed how multiple European countries skyrocketed their organ donation rates: they required citizens to opt-out of donating rather than opt-in to donating. You can do something similar in your life by opting your future self into better habits ahead of time. For example, you could schedule your yoga session for next week while you are feeling motivated today. When your workout rolls around, you have to justify opting-out rather than motivating yourself to opt-in.

Designing for default comes down to a very simple premise: shift your environment so that the good behaviors are easier and the bad behaviors are harder.

Designed For You vs. Designed By You

Default choices are not inherently bad, but the entire world was not designed with your goals in mind. In fact, many companies have goals that directly compete with yours (a food company may want you to buy their bag of chips, while you want to lose weight). For this reason, you should be wary of accepting every default as if it is supposed to be the optimal choice.

I have found more success by living a life that I design rather than accepting the standard one that has been handed to me. Question everything. You need to alter, tweak, and shift your environment until it matches what you want out of life.

Yes, the world around you shapes your habits and choices, but there is something important to realize: someone had to shape that world in the first place. Now, that someone can be you.

If you want more practical ideas for breaking bad habits and creating good habits, check out my book Atomic Habits, which will show you how small changes in habits can lead to remarkable results.

https://jamesclear.com/design-default