Topley’s Top 10 – March 14, 2022

1. Capitalism vs. Communism…5 Year S&P +76% vs. Russia -76% (closed)

TikTokers enlist. The White House has briefed the most influential TikTok stars on the war in Ukraine so they can be better informed when talking about the conflict to their millions of followers, the WaPo reports. Over in Russia, the government is paying Russian TikTok influencers to post pro-Kremlin narratives about the war, according to Vice.

Brittney Griner-Considering the acquittal rate in Russia is less than 1%, it could require some high-level political wrangling. But so far, US officials said they’re trying to stick to strictly legal channels.

https://www.morningbrew.com/daily

www.yahoofinance.com


2. AGG-Bond Index About to Close Below 200 Day Moving Average.

AGG sitting on 200day long-term weekly chart


3. Streaming Wars Slammed Stocks…

NFLX -51% and breaks to new lows

ROKU -72%

IQ -90% Netflix of China

www.stockcharts.com


4. Streaming Listening

SPOT -58%

TME -90%

www.stockcharts.com


5. Follow Up to my Russian Economic Summaries Last Week…Capital Group Adds Some More Clarity.

Capital Group 

Exposure to Russia looms large for Europe, less so for the world

Sources: Capital Group, IMF World Economic Outlook, MSCI, RIMES. As of December 31, 2021. GDP figures are annual. “Emerging and developing Europe” includes Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Kosovo, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Turkey and Ukraine. Exposure to equity indexes reflects the percentage of index market value represented by Russian companies within listed indexes.

https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/investment-impacts-war-ukraine.html?sfid=1988901890&cid=80683121&et_cid=80683121&cgsrc=SFMC&alias=A-btn-LP-2-CISynCTA


6. Europe Stopped Producing Natural Gas and Russia Filled the Gap

WSJ Editorial Board.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-lesson-in-energy-masochism-europe-natural-gas-russia-vladimir-putin-11646170129


7. Midterm Election Years History

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading…Midterm years see an average peak to trough correction of 17.1% – 12.4% so far this year feels uncomfortable, but need to remember this is normal in midterm years.  The good news is a year later stocks are up more than 30%LPL notes


8. Vanguard REIT Index…50day thru 200day to Downside.


9. NFTs Became a $40 billion Market in 2021….Ethereum Dominates NFT Transaction Volume

Financial Times

According to the Financial Times, while only a niche group of crypto enthusiasts were aware of NFTs in 2020, the landscape quickly exploded in 2021. By the end of 2021, almost $41 billion was spent on NFTs, according to global data.

A research analyst, Mason Nystrom, said a major reason for the NFT market growth was the demand buyers had to purchase art that aligned with their “digital identities”.

List of NFT Stats click link

https://findstack.com/nft-statistics/

https://delphidigital.io/


10. Why Always Being Busy Negatively Affects Your Self-Development

ByDan Western 

More and more often people are finding themselves busier than they can handle;

And this, far from being something which is treated as worrying, is actually seen as favourable. It’s almost a badge of honour to be able to say to people that you have been too busy to eat/sleep/have a social life/be a human being.

Too many people are falling into the trap of thinking that being busy to the exclusion of everything else in their lives is a good thing.

We are now becoming more and more aware of how bad it actually is; and research is being done into how to combat it and ensure that everybody takes some time for themselves. Rather than being busy all the time and finally burning out at the end of it all.

Why Always Being Busy Can Be Bad for Self Development

Being busy and stressed all the time isn’t good for your body or your mind – it can have negative effects on your life and your health in particular.

This article will look at the ways in which being busy can be detrimental to you overall.

1. Creativity Killer

You might think that this should be obvious – being too busy can kill creativity.

Researchers who carried out a simple word association test: found that the people who were busier and had more on their minds were less creative in their answers than people who were at their leisure.

It was found, more specifically, that people who had more to remember had their replies stripped back to the most statistically common answers. Whereas people who had very little to remember were able to come up with less stereotypical responses.

This was not a function of them having less time than was necessary for the task. Even with plenty of time, the group with lots to remember still could not progress beyond the simplistic answers they gave.

This effect is what many people have found in the real world as well as in the lab; and understanding what it has done and is doing to our creativity is vitally important for changing things.

Having too much on your mind is something which can blunt creativity; and so stop you from either advancing or expanding on your current career. If you want to continue to move forward and see where your path can take you, losing your creativity can be devastating.

2. Wrong Priorities

If you are too busy, it can actively keep you from moving forward with your life. I have been experiencing this myself recently. Actively being kept from moving forward with my plans and my life in general.

Creativity needs some mental head-space for it to really thrive. If you are too busy, it can keep you from looking at other possibilities and other thoughts; and keep you on one particular path rather than trying to diversify and see what really works for you.

Being so busy that your creativity is stifled is what can lead you to prioritise the wrong things, something which can be bad overall.

When you are too busy to think, you can be too busy to truly see what is going on; and sometimes that means you can miss things that you would not otherwise miss: other creative opportunities, other jobs which will push you beyond what you are doing now.

3. No Time to Track Progress

Being busy can stifle you by keeping you from seeing where you are. Many people, especially as they get older and more established in their careers; have a particular way they want their career to go. And they have specific milestones set that they want to look out for, to help them get there.

Being too busy can keep you from tracking your progress, and therefore can keep you from truly advancing in your aspirations.

Ideally, every step you take in your career should be focused on how it can help you proceed to the next stage. Even if you are planning on staying at that level for a while. if you are too busy, you can feel unable to truly think beyond what you are doing; and about how to reach the next part of your plan.

This can mean you end up stuck in one particular level for a long time. Perhaps even so long that the opportunities you were going to take advantage of, have gone completely by the time you get around to them.

4. You Aren’t Working to your Potential

When you are very busy, you will find that you are simply moving from one task to the next; there is usually very little thought put into each individual work-piece, because there is simply no time to put the effort in.

When people are busy, they don’t have the time to add any extra flair to their work that creativity might otherwise give.

Being too busy means that you are focused on getting as much work done as possible. But that does not mean that the work being done is your best work. You are at your best when you can actually take the time to breathe, and to look over your work at your leisure.

Not only will that help you improve generally; it’s easier to see mistakes when you aren’t rushing. You will find that you are able to bring so much more to the table when you aren’t rushing.

5. You Put Your Health in Danger

Working this hard is bad for your health. It is bad for everything else, but particularly for your health. If you work this hard, you will find yourself cutting back on sleep, proper food, and a proper social life.

Having no space to stretch your creative muscles, or to go on to other things, is detrimental overall; because you have sacrificed food and sleep for stress and overwork which is ultimately in the service of very little.

Sub-par work is all that most people have to show for their efforts after a long period of overwork.

Summary

This article has not covered all of the effects of overwork. But it has covered enough to hopefully make people think twice before they willingly accept being in a position of having too much work to comfortably do; while also having to sacrifice every semblance of a normal life to get everything done.

Too much work is bad for creativity especially, as there is no room for anybody to think beyond what is absolutely necessary for their work.

https://wealthygorilla.com/why-always-being-busy-negative/

Topley’s Top 10 – March 10, 2022

1. History of U.S. Consumer Spending on Energy

Dave Lutz Jones Trading


2. Russia Minimal Impact on U.S. Economy and 1.5% of Emerging Market Index

LPL Research

https://iplresearch.com/2022/03/03/economically-and-financially-russia-doesnt-matter-as-much-as-you-might-think/


3. Visual Guide to European Memberships

A Visual Guide to Europe’s Member States- Anshool Deshmukh

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/a-visual-guide-to-europes-member-states/


4. Percentage Who Have Confidence Putin Will “do the right thing”…..

Pew Research  Greece and Singapore 55%???

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/06/14/few-across-17-advances-economies-have-confidence-in-putin/ft_21-06-10_viewsofputin_01/


5. McDonalds $50m a Month from Russian Sales.

MCD -16% from Highs

www.stockcharts.com


6. Stitch Fix –Covid Favorite Long Name….-86% from Highs

www.stockcharts.com


7. Gasoline Drops -10% in One Day….After 15 Year Breakout on Chart

-10% Intra-day yesterday

15 Year Breakout Before Yesterday Sell Off

www.stockcharts.com


8. Job Openings Double Number of Unemployed Americans.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/job%20openings%20vs%20workers_0.jpg?itok=IWjvoZr2


9. The Russian Ware and Crypto by Morningbrew

The Russia-Ukraine war is a critical moment for crypto

From funding the Ukrainian military to aiding its citizens, crypto is raising questions about the possibilities of borderless currency.

ByStephanie Forshee

On February 26, Ukraine’s official Twitter account announced that the country was accepting donations in the form of bitcoin, ethereum, and the stablecoin tether. Days later, it added polkadot and dogecoin to the mix.

More than 100,000 crypto asset donations worth more than $59 million were sent to Ukraine between February 24 and the morning of March 7, according to blockchain analytics firm Elliptic. It marks an unprecedented moment as cryptocurrency, largely decentralized from government-run banks or government imposed restrictions, bypasses financial institutions and moves directly to the Ukrainian government, as well as its civilians. And crypto, which is viewed by some to be one of the most efficient ways to get funds directly to Ukrainians, could become a bigger part of the conversation moving forward as Russian troops continue to advance to Kyiv.

Ukraine has disbursed $15 million of its total cryptocurrency donations to purchase military gear, including weapons, bulletproof vests, and medical supplies, Bloomberg reports. While the Ukrainian government’s crypto fund is reserved for its military, other funds have been launched to help civilians evacuate and to get food and gas to them. One such fund is the “private fund” of Kuna founder Michael Chobanian. Kunda helped Ukraine officials set up crypto wallets for donations.

NFTs have also played a small role. UkraineDAO, backed by a member of the Russian artist collective Pussy Riot, launched an NFT of the Ukrainian flag that raised about $6.7 million, and Vice Prime Minister of Ukraine Mykhailo Fedorov tweeted on Thursday that Ukraine would accept NFTs to help financially support its armed forces.

 

In Russia, the economy has tanked as the United States and its European allies have set limits of their own—from blocking much of Russia’s access to the SWIFT bank messaging network to rolling out boycotts of Russian vodka. Meanwhile, the value of the ruble has plummeted, and citizens have rushed to ATMs to retrieve any cash they can get their hands on. That’s where the unregulated nature of crypto could prove to be a problem.

US legislators, including Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), and European lawmakers have expressed concerns that Russia could skirt sanctions using the largely unregulated forms of payment. “Cryptocurrencies risk undermining sanctions against Russia, allowing Putin and his cronies to evade economic pain,” Warren tweeted on Monday. “US financial regulators need to take this threat seriously and increase their scrutiny of digital assets.”

Warren, along with three other Democratic US senators—Sherrod Brown (OH), Mark Warner (VA), and Jack Reed (RI)—sent a letter to US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on March 2, asking her to explain how the Treasury intends to enforce sanctions compliance by the cryptocurrency industry, “given the need to ensure the efficacy and integrity of our sanctions program against Russia and other adversaries.” (They have asked her to respond by March 23.)

A number of crypto exchanges have pledged to comply with US sanctions but will not cut off individual Russian users, even after Fedorov asked them to freeze all Russian accounts in order to put even more domestic pressure on the country. Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao told BBC Radio his company is not backing down on its stance that it will not cut off Russians’ access to crypto. While Zhao said Binance is monitoring activity among political leaders using the crypto exchange to fund war efforts, it wants to make itself available to Russian civilians caught up in the war.

“We are not political, we are against war,” Zhao said, “but we are here to help the people.” His sentiments were echoed by spokespeople for Coinbase and other major crypto exchanges.

And judging by early metrics, Russians are exchanging their rubles for crypto, raising questions about whether or not the borderless currency could unwillingly fuel Russia’s aggression. Motherboard reported that tether, which is based on the value of the US dollar, was particularly popular with Russians. The tether/ruble trading volume broke records on March 1 with $34.94 million.

This is a seismic shift in the way war-torn countries can access funds from around the globe. Alex Gladstein, chief strategy officer of the Human Rights Foundation, a nonprofit group based in New York, told Morning Brew that the crypto-focused fundraising efforts by Ukraine are not only “geopolitically fascinating” but also “completely revolutionary.”

Ukraine’s people are struggling to access traditional money, creating “a logistical nightmare with regard to banking,” Gladstein said. He thinks the “parallel system” that bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies offer “is hugely helpful.”

He said, “People are starting to realize why [some turn to] bitcoin.”

The Russia-Ukraine war is a critical moment for crypto (morningbrew.com)


10. Contrarian Edge Vitaliy Katsenelson Grew Up in Russia

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson

https://contrarianedge.com/

Dear Matt, Feel free to share it with your friends. -Vitaliy

Drawing is by my brother, Alex Katsenelson. Prints available on ArtistUSA.com.

 

This is part 3 of my ongoing series on the Russian war with Ukraine. You can read part 1 here and part 2 here (available in English as well as a Russian translation). Part 4 is forthcoming.
To everyone that suggested a charity helping embattled Ukraine: thank you. This country needs all the help it can get. You can find the list of charities here, as well as at the bottom of this email.
There is a good chance I will be coming to Houston and Dallas on or near March 14/15. We’d like to organize a reader get-together around then in either or both cities. If you’re close by and would like to attend, please email Barbara at pa@imausa.com.

 

War in Ukraine: Part 3 – The Future of Russia

 

“Putin cannot bring the Soviet Union back together, but he can bring back breadlines.”

–Ian Bremmer

 

Sanctions will likely have a very significant impact on the Russian economy. Unlike previous (2014) sanctions, which were toothless and slow to have an impact, these went straight for the jugular of the Russian financial system, possibly crippling it overnight. The Russian central bank had to raise rates to 20%, banks stopped giving out loans, and the ruble collapsed. The Russian economy is likely going to be engulfed in inflation, the magnitude of which it has not seen since the early 1990s. Russia has been cut off from the West overnight. Russia has turned into a toxic pollutant on corporate ESG checklists. Even Coca-Cola is leaving Russia.

The thinking in the West is that the Russian people will revolt against their dictatorial ruler, and this will bring an end to the war. In addition, the sanctions should in theory deprive Russia of the economic oxygen it needs for Putin to be able strengthen the Russian military and put an excruciatingly high price tag on future wars.

Will sanctions bring an end to Putin?

Sanctions have a checkered history. They didn’t get rid of Castro in Cuba or the Kims in North Korea. It took more than a decade for sanctions against South Africa in the 1980s to bear fruit. Sanctions in the past have been an effective stick that was turned into a carrot when both sides came to the negotiating table.

But the world has never seen sanctions like this. Ironically, these sanctions may give Putin even more power.

How?

To control the masses, Putin tells them what to think. How does he manage that?

In 2014, I was perplexed by how the Russian people could possibly support and not be outraged by Russia’s invasion of Eastern Ukraine. But I live in Denver, and I read mostly U.S. and European newspapers. I wanted to see what was going on in Russia and Ukraine from the Russian perspective, so I went on a seven-day news diet: I watched only Russian TV – Channel One Russia, the state-owned broadcaster, which I hadn’t seen in more than 20 years – and read Pravda, the Russian newspaper whose name means “truth.” I wrote a lengthy article on this topic – you can read it here. An excerpt:

In my misspent youth, I took a marketing class at the University of Colorado. I remember very little from that class except this: For your message to be remembered, a consumer has to hear it at least six times. Putin’s propaganda folks must have taken the same class, because Russian citizens get to hear how great their president is at least six times a day.

We Americans look at Putin and see an evil KGB guy who roams around the country without a shirt on. Russians are shown a very different picture. They see a hard-working president who cares deeply about them. Every news program dedicates at least one fifth of its airtime to showcasing Putin’s greatness, not in your face but in subtle ways. A typical clip would have him meeting with a cabinet minister. The minister would give his report, and Putin, looking very serious indeed, would lecture the minister on what needs to be done. Putin is always candid, direct and tough with his ministers. [In Part 1 of this series I discussed how Russians love their leaders to death. Russian TV is an unending informercial for Putin. Russians get huge helpings of Putin-love for breakfast, lunch and dinner.]

I’ve listened to a few of Putin’s speeches, and I have to admit that his oratory skills are excellent, of J.F.K. or Reagan caliber. He doesn’t give a speech; he talks. His language is accessible and full of zingers. He is very calm and logical. [I’ve heard that isolation during the pandemic had an impact on him and he lost some of his eloquence over the last few years.]

I have to confess, it is hard not to develop a lot of self-doubt about your previously held views when you watch Russian TV for a week. But then you have to remind yourself that Putin’s Russia doesn’t have a free press. The free press that briefly existed after the Soviet Union collapsed is gone – Putin killed it. The government controls most TV channels, radio and newspapers. What Russians see on TV, read in print, and listen to on the radio is direct propaganda from the Kremlin.

Before I go further, let’s visit the definition of propaganda with the help of the Oxford English Dictionary: “The systematic dissemination of information, especially in a biased or misleading way, in order to promote a political cause or point of view.”

I always thought of the Internet as an unstoppable democratic force that would always let the truth slip out through the cracks in even the most determined wall of propaganda. I was wrong. After watching Russian TV, you would not want to read the Western press, because you’d be convinced it was lying. More important, Russian TV is so potent that you would not even want to watch anything else, because you would be convinced that you were in possession of indisputable facts.

Russia’s propaganda works by forcing your right brain (the emotional one) to overpower your left brain (the logical one), while clogging all your logical filters.

I know exactly what I am going to hear back from some of my fellow Americans. They are going to say: Don’t you think Americans are brainwashed by Fox News, MSNBC, CNN, and other news outlets? There is no question in my mind that American news is more biased today than ever before. But there is a difference between bias and what is happening in Russia. At least by watching different news outlets and reading different newspapers, Americans can triangulate to the truth.

Most importantly, the US government doesn’t tell networks what to say. The editor of The Washington Post doesn’t have to worry about a trumped-up charge if he writes a scathing article about Biden. In Russia there is only one media voice and that is the voice of the government. All other voices were silenced by the government. The government has zero accountability. Think of Watergate, Irangate, and other “gates” scandals – they could never happen in today’s Russia.

I never appreciated the free press as much as I do now. The free press shines a light on government actions. It provides a much needed feedback loop between government and the public.

Over the last few days things have gotten tremendously worse on this front. Russia passed a new law: If you call this war with Ukraine a war, not a “special operation” or publish any views that contradict stories put out by the Ministry of Defense (i.e., create “fake news”) you can get up to 15 years in prison. Providing assistance to foreign organizations that oppose the war (sorry, “special operation”) with Ukraine will be considered treason, which may result in up to 20 years in prison. Needless to say, most independent local and foreign news organization immediately closed their doors. Since the invasion, Facebook, Twitter, and other social media have also been blocked in Russia. In other words, Russia turned into China overnight.

Today, cognitive dissonance between reality and what the government says rose to a comical level. A day after the Russian government passed the aforementioned laws, Putin gave a speech, where he said (I am loosely translating):

In Russia, our people are expressing their views about what they like or don’t like about the situation in Ukraine. But there, in Ukraine, those who express the same opinions as the liberal part of our citizenry are grabbed from the street and shot. They are just simply shooting them. In Russia, our liberals are protesting. In Ukraine they just kill them without due process.

Remember, this speech was given just a day after he passed a law that you can get up to 15 years in prison for calling a war a war.

Here is another example of how official Russian news has little resemblance to reality. I went to Pravda, clicked on the first article I saw, and read: “The Ministry of Defense has repeatedly stated that no missile, artillery, or air strikes are carried out by Russian forces on the cities of Ukraine; and the civilian population will not suffer during the operation, since its purpose is solely to disable the military infrastructure.”

Ruins of apartment buildings that have been destroyed by Russia artillery are figments of our imagination. Who do you want to believe, the Russian Ministry of Defense or your lying eyes?

Here is another example: a message on Instagram by a Ukrainian young man:

My dad works as a security guard in a monastery near Nizhny Novgorod [Russia]. He is a deeply religious person and congratulates me on all church holidays. Yesterday I wondered why my father did not call (the war is the same) and called him [my]self.

I told in detail about what was happening – my father replied that this was nonsense, there was no war, and the Russians were saving us from the Nazis, who were making human shields out of civilians.

I could not believe when I read this. I wanted to see if it was true on my own. I was already in a WhatsApp group chat with my classmates with whom I went to middle school in Russia. This is what they told me: Russia was forced into this war. It is getting rid of neo-Nazis in Ukraine. The Russian Army is liberating Donbas and Lugansk from Ukrainian genocide. Their admiration for Putin was at a new high. (The stories I read that Putin’s popularity is hitting new heights seem to be true.) At the end of the conversation, I was convinced that they are brainwashed, and they were convinced that I am brainwashed.

We had no common reality to stand on. None. We all agreed that we don’t want people to die on either side. They were convinced that the civilians who are dying in Ukrainian cities are killed not by Russian artillery and rockets but by neo-Nazis and Banderovtsi (Ukranian nationalists) shooting and bombing their own people. (The war in Donbass and Lugansk and neo-Nazis are a very important topic that I’ll have to discuss separately, hopefully in the next part.)

These folks I went to school with, played in the snow with, and even had crushes on a couple of them. They are kind, good people, but Putin’s TV has completely zombified them. As one of my friends said, they have Russian TV on their brains. (Of course, there is another possibility: that I am zombified and am completely oblivious to that fact.)

People in Russia are brainwashed beyond what any Westerner can possibly imagine. They live in their own version of the Truman Show, in an alternate reality that is deeply divorced from the world outside their dome. This point is paramount: Control of the media allows Putin to completely deform and carefully craft his version of the truth. And this is why I am worried that sanctions may not be as effective as we hope.

I heard from my junior high school friends a line that I’ve seen in other places: “We are in the middle of a war. We have to finish that war.” This war has further solidified Putin’s position. He presents the sanctions as the West’s aggression against Russia. It seems that zombified Russians have given him a blank check on the pain they are willing to endure and the lives of their kids they are willing to lose. This may change as the body count continues to climb and parents realize that their children who today are not picking up the phone are lying dead in the fields of Ukraine, and that sanctions from the West will continue to inflict tremendous pain on the Russian economy.

This brings me to the next point. Russia’s next chapter looks very dark.

Not everyone is zombified in Russia. A few of my school friends reached out to me privately and expressed their disgust with the war. They did not want to voice their opinions in public. Even when we talked on WhatsApp, despite WhatsApp’s claim of end-to-end encryption, they were still concerned that they might be listened to. These are not a paranoid people, but people who know the ugly Russian history and who are acutely aware that the punishment the newly passed laws carry punishment for being labeled an “enemy of the state” or a “collaborator with the enemy” (yours truly) is 15 years rotting in prison.

Let’s zoom in for a second on Russia’s dark history. Until the late 1980s, Joseph Stalin was a Soviet hero who led the Soviet Union in defeating the Nazis. You could often see Stalin’s portrait hanging in classrooms right next to Lenin’s. My father told me that when Stalin died in 1953 the whole country cried, including him (he was 20). It was one of the saddest days of his life.

After perestroika and glasnost in the late 1980s, we were shocked to learn that the evilness of Stalin, the father figure we admired so much, was fully on par with Hitler’s. Stalin killed 20 million people, while 27 million people died in WWII. (I don’t claim to know the validity of the precision of either number. It’s irrelevant; both men killed millions of people). Stalin also eliminated the leadership of the Soviet Army, which made Soviet losses in WWII greater.

The Stalin regime was oppressive. If you were called an “enemy of the people” there was no due process; you were guilty and you were either shot or sent to a gulag, where you’d die from inhuman working conditions and hunger. In fact, a lot of magnificent Soviet infrastructure was built by slave labor (“enemies of the people”).

Today, Putin’s government is rewriting history. Stalin is back in vogue again. He is glorified as a leader who united the country, and you start seeing new statues of him popping up across Russia. In 2014 Russia passed a law that prohibits criticism of Soviet activities during WWII (and thus of Stalin).

Putin wants Russians to forget their history so he can repeat it.

I vividly remember my mom’s terrified face in the early 1980s when a guest at our dining table or my father said something that was not supportive of government policy. If it leaked to authorities, my parents would not have gone to the gulag, but they could have lost their jobs. I never thought I’d see fear of criticizing the government again in Russia. But it’s back. This is why my friends who don’t have a TV in their heads were afraid and did not want to speak up in my classmate WhatsApp group.

In less than two weeks since the beginning of the Ukraine war, with the passing of the new laws, Russia made an enormous leap back towards 1937 and an oppressive Stalin-like regime. While Ukraine, thanks to Russia, went back to 1941, as women and children started dying from artillery and rocket bombings.

The situation in Russia will get worse. Mothers will realize they have lost their children in Ukraine, and sanctions will cause enormous unemployment, breadlines, and maybe even hunger. People will start speaking up more – and the Stalin-era oppression will likely come back in full swing. The country will suddenly be swarming with “enemies of the state” and gulags will be back in vogue again.

There is talk in the media that the oligarchs and upper echelons of the government may revolt against Putin. If you are thinking about this, so is Putin. I don’t know what probability to put on this; I don’t think anyone knows. Whatever you think that probability is, I’d reduce it by half.

In the meantime, though, this war is lasting longer and going worse than Putin expected. Putin has the time to continue the war, because Russians are either brainwashed and supporting the war or being arrested the second they voice their displeasure with the war. My biggest concern, since there is no feedback loop by which to accomplish the goal of “freeing the Ukrainian government from drug addicts and Nazis” (I kid you not, Putin’s words) and basically replacing the Ukrainian government, Putin will resort to the strategy he employed to win the war in Chechnya – he leveled Chechnya’s cities.

A silver lining here is that it is usually the young people who don’t “have a TV in their heads,” as they watch less Russian TV, spend more time on social media (I never thought I’d be thankful for social media), and are more aware of what is going in the West (no, NATO was not about to invade Russia). The army is full of young people, and maybe Russian soldiers will continue to surrender or, even better, become the source of dissent.

Unfortunately, to my shock, this war is more popular in Russia than I ever thought it would be. Maybe by the time you read this it will already be over, but I doubt it. Putin is under little pressure to conclude it, and, as my middle school friends said, “The war has already started; we have to finish it.”

The thinking part of the populace, who understand what is going on and are against the war, are going out onto the streets and protesting or are too afraid to do so. As of this writing, more than 2,000 peaceful anti-war demonstrators have been arrested. Any appearance, even a pretense, that Russia is a democracy is gone. The mask is off.

Post Script:

As I was working on this article, though it is about Russia and Ukraine, I realized how lucky we are in the US. With all our problems we still have a fully functioning democracy. We have a free press. It is biased, but it is free. Without a free press we will have tyranny. I really did not appreciate that as much as I do now.

Also, I realized the beauty of our federal system. Russia is almost destined to oscillate between democracy and authoritarian control. It is very large country with a very diverse population that has different value systems and cultures. When you try to govern it from the top, you quickly discover that you have little control. In the early 2000s, at Putin’s request, Russia switched from locally elected governors to Putin-appointed governors, consolidating power not at the state level but at the top, with Putin. Putin’s argument was that local governors were corrupt. In truth however, the only way to govern Russia and preserve democracy is to have a US-like system. The federal government provides basic services –defense, interstate police (FBI), the legal system, etc. The majority of decisions are made on the local and state levels, based on the needs and values of those entities.

My Russian school friends and I were reminiscing about our school years. We started asking, “Where is this person? What happened to that one?” Sadly, we discovered that close to 15-20% of our class has died. None of them were even 50 years old. Most died under 40 from alcoholism. The demographic crisis is real in Russia. There are fewer people alive in Russia than when Putin took office 22 years ago.

Next: I’ll discuss neo Nazis in Ukraine.

 

List of Ukraine Charities:

 

Topley’s Top 10 – March 09, 2022

1. Worst Start for Stocks and Bonds ….What Happens Next?

Blackrock

Blackrock https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/insights/blackrock-investment-institute/weekly-commentary


2. QQQ -20% Revisit Previous Low

QQQ Right on Previous Low


3. Gold Close to Break Out.

GLD Gold ETF About to Top Covid Highs

Silver Still Well Below Highs

www.stockcharts.com


4. Gold ETF Inflows Have Not Hit Extreme Levels.

Jeff Degraff

It may feel like $GLD is a pile-on beneficiary, but the ETF flows over the last 65-days have not reached the extreme levels of panic buying that historically give us pause. #gold

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeffrey-degraaf-cmt-cfa/


5. Nickel Futures and EV Cars

The price of nickel futures that had spiked by 73% on Monday at the London Metals Exchange in a short squeeze whose squeezed party hadn’t been identified at the time spiked by another 100% on Tuesday intraday on the LME to over $100,000 per metric ton, when the LME halted trading at a price of $81,051.

Now details emerged as to who got short-squeezed: Chinese tycoon Xiang Guangda, chairman and founder of the world’s largest nickel producer, closely-held Tsingshan Holding Group, according to Bloomberg. Xiang, forced by margin calls from his company’s broker in China, closed out part of the short position in nickel futures, and this is the result:

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/03/08/nickel-futures-spike-ridiculously-trading-halted-in-short-squeeze-on-chinese-tycoon-facing-billions-in-losses/

CNBC-Nickel’s price surge could threaten automakers’ ambitious electric-vehicle plans

John Rosevear@JOHN__ROSEVEAR

KEY POINTS

·         Russia is a key supplier of nickel. Prices have surged since its invasion of Ukraine.

·         Nickel is a critical ingredient in the lithium-ion batteries used in most electric vehicles.

·         Automakers – and investors – will have to rethink EV plans if nickel supplies are constrained.

The price of nickel is surging as investors take stock of the new global reality: Russia, a key supplier of the metal, is now facing extensive sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine.

In an unusual step, the London Metal Exchange suspended nickel trading on Tuesday morning after three-month contract prices more than doubled to over $100,000 per ton.

Nickel is a critical ingredient in the lithium-ion battery cells used in most electric vehicles sold in – and planned for – the U.S. market. Its abrupt price surge has analysts and investors raising hard questions about automakers’ ambitious electric-vehicle programs.

Morgan Stanley auto analyst Adam Jonas has been among the loudest voices raising concerns. In a note published Monday, he said: “As of this writing, nickel is up 67.2% just today, representing around a $1,000 increase in the input cost of an average EV in the U.S.”

Jonas wrote that investors should reduce their expectations for automakers’ earnings, and for electric-vehicle sales penetration over the next few years, as nickel’s abrupt price surge could undermine the ambitious EV plans put forth by global automakers including General Motors and Ford Motor.

Why nickel is important to EV batteries

Lithium-ion battery cells have three layers:

  • a cathode that contains lithium mixed with nickel and other minerals such as cobalt, manganese or aluminum
  • an anode, made of carbon graphite and sometimes silicon
  • a separator made of a porous polymer

There’s also a liquid electrolyte, generally made from lithium salt that is dissolved in a solvent.

When the battery cell is charged, lithium ions are driven from the cathode to the anode. As the cell is discharged, the ions move back to the cathode, releasing energy.

In recent years, automakers have discovered that adding more nickel to the cathode can boost a battery’s energy density, which translates into more range per pound of batteries.

Older lithium-ion batteries used cathodes that were about one-third nickel. But in recent years, automakers have increased the percentage of nickel in cathodes to boost the batteries’ energy density and increase vehicle range. Most are now using cathodes that contain at least 60% nickel.

Some use even more, in part to reduce or eliminate cobalt, and in part to increase density for premium applications: The cathodes in cells that Korean battery giant LG Chem supplies to Tesla are 90% nickel, for instance.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/08/nickel-price-surge-could-threaten-automakers-ev-plans.html


6. Coinbase Right on Previous Low

Coinbase is following Bitcoin almost exactly …acting as spot ETF for Bitcoin

www.stockcharts.com


7. Commodities Still Cheap Vs. Stocks …

Jim Reid Deutsche Bank-Staying with commodities, in our first CoTD of the new decade (depending on your view of the calendar) in January 2021, we discussed the “Trade of the Decade?” (link here) where we showed that commodities were the cheapest they’d ever been to the S&P 500. Our view on commodities has always been that they have long periods of poor performance punctuated by exceptional returns, usually around inflationary periods, and also around conflicts which are clearly very unpredictable.

14 months on and commodities still look ‘cheap’ but not at the extreme cheap levels they were. Will we ever get back to a point where commodities are as expensive versus equities as they were in the 1970s and even around 2008? I would still say commodities are relatively cheap to financial assets but it’s quite clear that in the short term we could move rapidly in either direction given the conflict in Ukraine.

For a look at how poor long-term returns are in commodities see our annual long-term study here. Page 43 shows you that in the 150 years up to last summer the real return of oil, wheat, and copper was -0.42%, -1.12% and -0.56% per annum. The S&P 500 over the same period was +6.57% p.a. (albeit including dividends). So reiterating what I said earlier, commodities have been extremely cheap recently but through history they tend to see sporadic periods of exceptional performance and then long periods where they struggle to keep up with inflation and without the cushion of a dividend stream.


8. Small Business Owners Biggest Problem Inflation

Bespoke Investment Group

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/the-little-guy-eying-inflation


9. Multifamily Borrowing Closes 2021 on Strong Note; Record Year Anticipated in 2022

By Jamie Woodwell Multifamily lending alone is forecast to rise to $493 billion in 2022, according to MBA’s latest report.

$ in billions

The fourth quarter of 2021 saw a remarkable increase in multifamily borrowing and lending.

Loan originations were 79 percent higher in the final three months of the year compared to fourth-quarter 2020, and increased 44 percent from the third quarter of 2021. This is according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations.

Lending volumes are closely tied to the values of the underlying properties. In 2021 those values rose by more than 20 percent, and those increases will fuel further demand for mortgage debt in the coming years. Continued increases in property incomes, especially for multifamily properties, and stability in the ways investors value those incomes, should also support solid demand for mortgage capital, even in the face of modest increases in interest rates.

Increases in originations for other property types led the overall jump in lending volumes when compared to the fourth quarter of 2020. While the year-over-year gains for multifamily properties were smaller, 35 percent is still very strong.

2021 was a remarkable year and MBA expects 2022 to continue that momentum. Total mortgage borrowing and lending is expected to break $1 trillion for the first time in 2022, a 13 percent increase from 2021’s estimated volume of $900 billion.

Multifamily lending alone is forecast to rise to $493 billion in 2022, a new record and a 5 percent increase that surpasses last year’s record total of $470 billion.


Jamie Woodwell is the Mortgage Bankers Association’s vice president of commercial real estate research.

https://www.multihousingnews.com/multifamily-borrowing-closes-2021-on-strong-note-record-year-anticipated-in-2022/


10. 8 Signs to Immediately Recognize Someone With the Gift of Leadership

In ‘Servant Leadership in Action,’ best-selling author Raj Sisodia details the rare qualities of great leaders.

BY MARCEL SCHWANTES, FOUNDER AND CHIEF HUMAN OFFICER, LEADERSHIP FROM THE CORE@MARCELSCHWANTES

In Servant Leadership in Action, a collection of essays from 44 renowned servant leadership experts, Raj Sisodia, co-founder of the Conscious Capitalism movement and best-selling author, details the qualities of great leaders using the fitting acronym “Selfless”:

  • Strength
  • Enthusiasm
  • Love
  • Flexibility
  • Long-term orientation
  • Emotional intelligence
  • Systems intelligence
  • Spiritual intelligence

Sisodia says the Selfless approach to conscious leadership reflects a blend of mature masculine and mature feminine qualities. He writes, “Too many leaders today manifest only immature hypermasculine qualities such as domination, aggression, hypercompetitiveness, winning at all costs, etc. They view every leadership challenge through the lens of war — a mindset that is at best win-lose, and usually lose-lose.”

Without further ado, here’s how Sisodia defines each letter of the acronym.

Strength

The strength of conscious leaders is resolute and unshakable in standing up to those who get in the way of their convictions. They are confident without being arrogant, and “draw on the strengths of their teams without depleting the power of those teams.” Strength, writes Sisodia, is exercised as “power with, not power over, those they seek to lead.”

Enthusiasm

Because of their commitment to moral authority, integrity, and a higher purpose, conscious leaders generate great energy and enthusiasm, not to be confused with the social traits of extroverted and gregarious people. “When you’re aligned with your purpose, you can’t help but be enthusiastic,” writes Sisodia. “That is hard to fake if you don’t have it.”

Love

The opposite of love is fear, and when fear permeates an organization, it stifles creativity and innovation. Love here is actionable and noble: creating psychological safety, connecting with employees, and caring for their well-being, and not just managing their work performance.

Flexibility

Leaders must be agile, adaptable, open, and able to switch modes and make swift changes while taking into consideration all the moving parts of the business. Sisodia offers up a great metaphor: “Conscious leaders are like golfers with a full set of clubs; they know how to select and implement the right approach for each situation.”

Long-Term Orientation

This is leading with an eye toward the future, beyond your tenure with the company, and even beyond even your lifetime. Conscious leaders gauge success by what happens to their businesses after they’re long gone. They ensure that the business will continue to operate wth the high principles and purpose it was founded on, a century from now.

Emotional Intelligence

Emotional intelligence (EQ) is a force to be reckoned with when it shows up with self-awareness (understanding oneself) and empathy (the ability to feel and understand what others are feeling) in day-to-day interactions and decision-making. Research, however, paints a different picture. “The higher the position in the organization, the lower the level of EQ, with the CEO typically having the lowest level,” writes Sisodia.

Systems Intelligence

Systems intelligence is thinking systemically about how each part of the business interrelates within the context of the larger organization. Conscious leaders “understand the roots of problems and how the problems relate to organizational design and culture,” writes Sisodia.

Spiritual Intelligence

This is the moral intelligence with which conscious leaders access their deeper meanings, values, purposes and higher motivations. It’s where the ability to distinguish between right and wrong, and right from left, comes from. It’s discerning at our core when things are beginning to go off track from our intended purpose. From this intelligence, we exercise our goodness, truth, beauty, and compassion.

https://www.inc.com/kevin-j-ryan/5g-small-business-karen-kerrigan.html?cid=sf01003

Topley’s Top 10 – March 08, 2022

1. Mega-Cap Tech/FAANG+…Widening Underperformance.

The group that investors thought would lead forever rolling over at rapid rate

Equities: US mega-caps continue to widen their underperformance.

Source: The Daily Shot

https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-march-7th-2022/


2. Nasdaq Stocks Trading Above 200 Day Moving Average…50day about to go thru 200day to downside

www.stockcharts.com


3. Most Popular Hedge Fund Positions Getting Smashed

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2020/03/05/animal-spirits-the-financial-rails-of-the-future/


4. Biggest One Week Move Ever in Thomson Reuters Commodity Index

Jim Reid

The week has started with a major increase in oil on the back of weekend comments from US Secretary of State Blinken raising the prospect of banning Russian crude imports. This follows the biggest week on record for our Commodity index (+13.4%) as our CoTD shows, eclipsing anything seen in the 1970s.

This is only the 7th day of March but at the time of writing (9am London time) here are the moves so far this month for a selection of commodities. UK Nat Gas +218%, Wheat +46%, Palladium +36%, WTI +30%, Brent +26%, Nickel +20%, Iron Ore +14%, Aluminium +14%, Copper 13%. By the time you read this, prices will probably change and gas in particular continues to trade in phenomenal intra-day ranges.

Before today’s move the rolling 3-month move in this overall commodity index was at +35.9%, just below the highest ever which was the +41.9% seen in the three months to August 11th 1973. We could easily beat this if markets continue to trade as they are.

So it’s going to be increasingly hard to ignore the comparisons to the 1970s as the commodity price action is increasingly resembling this. While oil hasn’t spiked by as much as in the 1970s (it more than tripled during the first oil shock from late1973), gas has increased by a much greater amount than at any point in history (see last week’s CoTD here) and the broader pace of the commodity rally is in many cases now beyond that seen in the 1970s.

For a recap a reminder that we published “Comparing the 2020s with the 1970s” (link here) and a “Back to the 1970s?” (link here) chart book back in October.


5. Ukraine War….GDP Hits to Eurozone and UK 2022-2024

Spike up in commodities has GDP forecasts globally dropping fast.


6. The Bond Volatility Index MOVE Hits 10 Year Highs

The MOVE Index is a well-recognized measure of U.S. interest rate volatility that tracks the movement in U.S. Treasury yield volatility implied by current prices of one-month over-the-counter options on 2-year, 5-year, 10-year and 30-year Treasuries. 

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-MOVE/


7. Airlines Now Face Gas Prices…-38% from Recent Highs.

Business Insider The surge in oil prices on the back of war in Ukraine is pointing to potential 22% downside for airline stocks, Barclays says

Carla Mozée 

  • Airline stocks could drop another 22% with oil prices soaring, Barclays said in a note Monday. 
  • The S&P 500 Airlines Index had lost more than 15% after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and fell further on Monday. 
  • Brent crude futures briefly climbed near $140 a barrel on Monday. 

Airline stocks are at risk to fall further as oil prices spike following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with Barclays seeing the potential for a key industry index to drop by more than 20%. 

Oil in recent days has kicked up to prices not seen since the 2008 global financial crisis, a move that in turn has pressured stocks in the airline sector. The S&P 500 Airline Index fell 11% during Monday’s session after having lost 15% through Friday from February 25, the day after Moscow attacked Ukraine. Russia is the world’s second-largest oil producer. 

Airline stocks had been “relatively insensitive” to rising oil prices until the invasion began nearly two weeks ago, said Barclays Monday. Brent crude, the international benchmark, on Monday briefly approaching $140 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate crude reached past $130 a barrel. Prices for fossil fuels have gained roughly 60% so far this year. 

Economists at Barclays estimate that surging energy prices will not stop the strength of the ongoing economic recovery in the US. But “our airlines analysts warn against the difficulty of airline companies matching higher fuel costs with higher fares,” wrote Maneesh S. Deshpande, head of US equity derivatives strategy at Barclays, in a research note. 

“If the 1990 oil price shock is any guide, airlines could fall an additional 20% from current levels,” he wrote, referring to the shock that stemmed from Iraq’s invasion of its neighbor Kuwait in August 1990.

From peak to bottom on June 6 through August 23, 1990, airline stocks as measured by the S&P 500 Airlines Index fell 37.6%, compared with the S&P 500’s 15.9% decline. 

“In comparison, airlines are currently 21% below their Feb-22 peak (vs the S&P -6.5%), implying a potential additional drop of 22% based on the above analysis,” said Deshpande in the note.

Russia accounts for around 8% of global oil supply. The US and its Western allies were discussing potential bans on Russian oil imports, reports said Monday, though some European leaders played down a potential embargo. Meanwhile, many traders have shunned Russian oil in the wake of the invasion.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/oil-prices-airline-stocks-russia-ukraine-invasion-war-commodities-travel-2022-3


8. China Bonds and Stocks Seeing Major Outflows.

China Sees Record Bond-Market Retreat by Foreign Investors

Ye Xie https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-sees-record-bond-market-192105507.html

Large Cap Chinese Stocks Break to New Lows Breaking Covid 2020 Levels

www.stockcharts.com


9. Follow Up to Yesterday’s Comments on Euro Banks

UBS Has $200 Million Exposure to Russian Assets in Loans to Rich ByMarion Halftermeyer

Want the lowdown on European markets? In your inbox before the open, every day. Sign up here.

UBS Group AG has about $200 million exposure to Russian assets that were used as collateral in loans to clients at its wealth unit.

The Swiss bank also identified “a small number” of wealth management clients who have been sanctioned in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it said in its annual report, published Monday. Those clients had less than $10 million in total loans outstanding as of March 3.

“We are working to implement sanctions imposed by Switzerland, the U.S., the EU, the UK and others,” Chief Executive Officer Ralph Hamers and Chairman Axel Weber said in the report.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-07/ubs-has-200-million-exposure-to-russian-assets-in-loans-to-rich?srnd=premium&sref=GGda9y2L

UBS -30% from highs

www.stockcharts.com


10. 3 Psychological Nutrients Workers Need

Keys to improving worker engagement, commitment, performance, and mental health.

Ryan Jenkins CSP

KEY POINTS

  • Psychologists have identified the three human psychological needs necessary for optimal human functioning.
  • The universal and innate psychological nutrients are competency, autonomy, and relatedness.
  • When all three psychological nutrients are satisfied, workers experience improved passion, engagement, and commitment.

When faced with a nutrient deficiency, people seek to replenish those nutrients. When we are physically malnourished, we find sustenance. The same holds true mentally.

Psychologists Edward Deci and Richard Ryan have identified the three human psychological needs necessary for optimal human functioning. The universal and innate psychological nutrients are competency, autonomy, and relatedness. Satisfaction of these basic needs promotes mental health and intrinsic motivation, which drives engagement and higher performance at work.

A deficiency in any of these three psychological nutrients can cause workers to look elsewhere to get nourishment. When all three psychological nutrients are satisfied, workers experience the highest-quality motivation that fuels passion, engagement, and commitment. Might these psychological nutrients hold the key for reversing the Great Resignation?

Psychological Nutrient #1: Autonomy

Autonomy is the agency to do things on your terms. It’s the freedom from external constraints on behavior. Autonomy does not mean to be independent of others but, rather, constitutes a feeling of overall psychological liberty and freedom of internal will. When a person is autonomously motivated, their performance, wellness, and engagement are heightened rather than if a person is told what to do.

Autonomy is the opposite of micromanagement. Workers feel empowered when they have choices and when they are trusted to make the right decisions. Increasing someone’s options and choices has been proven to increase their intrinsic motivation.

Workers who have clear direction and the freedom to act on their own accord with the ability to take direct action satisfy their need for the psychological nutrient of autonomy.

What will workers say if they quit due to an autonomy deficiency?

  • Their manager was too hands-on or micromanaged them.
  • They want more independence.
  • They want a better work–life balance.
  • They want more career paths.
  • They are conflicted about workplace policy.

How much autonomy does your team have to think and act on their own terms?

Psychological Nutrient #2: Competence

Competence is the need to feel capable. Competence occurs when someone is able to effectively meet the demands of their environment. Competency evokes feelings that someone is good at something.

When workers feel competent, they feel what they do is effective and masterful and can contribute to accomplishing worthwhile goals. Relevant feedback and expressing strong beliefs in the capabilities of others is key for satisfying the need for the psychological nutrient of competence.

article continues after advertisement

What will workers say if they quit due to a competence deficiency?

  • They need more of a challenge.
  • They feel uninspired.
  • They want to feel valued.
  • They feel that they have a lack of job growth or career advancement.
  • They need more feedback.
  • They want more recognition.
  • They have vague goals or no direction.
  • They want a clearer company vision.

Does your team feel competent in that they have the right skills and tools to contribute?

Psychological Nutrient #3: Relatedness

Relatedness is the need to feel involved with others. Relatedness is shorthand for being connected to colleagues, friends, family, and community. Humans have an innate need to belong. It is important to both make a contribution to the group and to feel cared for by the group.

Workers who are personally and emotionally connected to their colleagues and manager satisfy their need for the psychological nutrient of relatedness.

Relatedness is perhaps the most crucial psychological nutrient because high-quality relationships are able to provide individuals with a bond to another person while simultaneously reinforcing their needs for autonomy and competence.

What will workers say if they quit due to a relatedness deficiency?

  • They are seeking a better management relationship.
  • They have poor relationships with coworkers.
  • They are looking to live somewhere else.
  • Their company culture isn’t a good fit.

How connected does your team feel to one another?

Looking for a way to measure how disconnected your team is and gain custom solutions for improving your team’s connections? Check out the Team Connection Assessment here. It’s empirically validated to measure the strength and quality of connections teams have with their teammates, manager, and the work itself.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-case-connection/202203/3-psychological-nutrients-workers-need

Topley’s Top 10 – March 02, 2022

1. Crude Up 75% One Year …Hits 2014 Resistance Levels

Wolf Street

This chart shows how fast production was ramped up until the price collapsed in mid-2014, which caused some slow-down in production as oil and gas companies filed for bankruptcy one after the other. But then production began to surge again in the fall of 2016 after the price bounced off the bottom of $26 a barrel. And by September 2018, the price began to collapse again as production surged from record to record:

Now the industry is in no hurry to increase production. The survivors are finally making money at these prices, and they have no interest in pushing down the price again.

Crude Oil WTI Spikes: The Storm Today after the Calm Yesterdayby Wolf Richter  https://wolfstreet.com/2022/03/01/crude-oil-wti-spikes-the-storm-on-tuesday-after-the-calm-on-monday/


2. Russian Sanctions Being Offset by $100 Oil

WSJ By Jon Sindreu Follow-It is hard to conceive a complete collapse of Russia’s economy as long as it can keep selling its oil at almost $100 a barrel.   Ever since invading Crimea in 2014, Moscow has sought to reduce its foreign dependency. Imports have been partly replaced by domestic products, the Russian central bank has beefed up its reserve pot, linkages with foreign banks have been reduced and a Russian alternative to Swift has been developed.

Central Bank Squeeze Lacks Energy to Cripple Russia’s Economy https://www.wsj.com/articles/central-bank-squeeze-lacks-energy-to-cripple-russias-economy-11646062881?mod=itp_wsj&ru=yahoo


3. Five-Year Break Even Rates Turn Back Up Above Fed Target Rate

FRED Charts

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE

Chance of 50bps Fed Raise Falling Fast …Dave Lutz Jones Trading..Fed’s meeting in 15 days. Market expectations around the size of the coming hike have dropped and are currently BELOW a full 25-bps move.


4. Visual of Modern Day Geopolitical Crisis Events…Keeping in Mind Ukraine Could Be Bigger than All of Them

Capital Group

Robert Lind-Capital Group  https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/russia-ukraine-conflict-threatens-global-economy.html?sfid=1988901890&cid=80670215&et_cid=80670215&cgsrc=SFMC&alias=A-btn-LP-2-CISynCTA


5. PayPal -70% from Highs

www.stockcharts.com


6. Hedging of Taiwan ETF Soars Plus $65m in Outflows but Chart Holds Up

Hedging of Taiwan ETF Soars Amid Russia’s Ukraine Invasion-BloombergMaria Elena Vizcaino

The put-to-call ratio on the largest exchange-traded fund that buys Taiwanese equities — or the amount of outstanding bearish options contracts relative to bullish ones — has jumped to the highest since November. That signals traders are concerned about the island’s stocks, which may suffer if China uses Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a distraction to ramp up tensions with Taiwan.

“Investors are worried China might invade Taiwan,” said Lu Yu, a money manager at Allianz Global Investors in San Diego. “I feel like it’s a spillover effect. I don’t think it’s likely right now.”

READ: Ukraine Invasion Unnerves Global Funds Bracing for Taiwan Risk

U.S. Commander of Pacific Air Forces General Kenneth S. Wilsbach said two weeks ago his country was concerned that China will take advantage of the tensions between Russia and Ukraine and “try to do something” in the Indo-Pacific region. Still, Taiwan’s president played down concerns that the conflict in Europe could trigger a similar crisis in Asia.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hedging-taiwan-etf-surges-wake-180911777.html

EWT Chart Sideways for One Year

www.stockcharts.com


7. This Chart is a Few Years Old but Gives Good Idea on German Military Reduction

https://www.statista.com/chart/13077/the-german-military-is-woefully-unprepared-for-action/


8. NFT sales hit $565 million over the past week. These were the 5 best-selling digital collections.

Business Insider

Matthew Fox 

Jan 26, 2022, 10:39 AM

NFT sales had a breakthrough year in 2021, with total sales volume surging to $14 billion.

  • The NFT market is dominated by a handful of standout leaders due to their popularity and rarity. 
  • These are the five best-selling digital collectibles that helped drive $555 million in NFT sales over the past week. 

The cryptocurrency boom over the past few years has helped propel a newer market to record heights: digital collectibles known as NFTs. 

In fact, 2021 was a breakthrough year for NFTs, with total sales volume topping $14 billion as artists, investors, and entrepreneurs descend upon the nascent Web3 space. 

NFTs, or non-fungible tokens, are unique, irreplaceable, mostly digital items that users buy and sell online.

NFTs use blockchain technology to keep a digital record of ownership, similar to cryptocurrencies. They were first launched on ethereum, the same blockchain that supports the cryptocurrency ether, and most NFTs can still only be purchased using ether.

Despite the ongoing sell-off in cryptocurrencies, NFT sales have held up relatively well. In the past week alone, sales of NFTs hit $565 million, according to data from NonFungible.com.

With NFT sales soaring, these are the five best-selling NFT collections over the past week, according to NonFungible.

5. FLUF World

7-Day Sales Volume: $7.9 million
Number of Sales: 670
Highest Sale Price: $99,742

OpenSea

Explainer:“FLUFs have been programmatically generated from 270 attributes across 14 categories to be entirely unique by at least three degrees of separation. This also excludes their expression, dance, scene, and soundtrack. FLUFs are stored as ERC721 tokens on the Ethereum blockchain.”

4. Doodles

7-Day Sales Volume: $9.3 million
Number of Sales: 318
Highest Sale Price: $214,666

OpenSea

Explainer: “Doodles come in a joyful range of colors, traits, and sizes with a collection size of 10,000. Doodles are a funky bunch that like to role play or transmogrify themselves into delicious treats. Holding a Doodle allows you to participate in coordinating the Doodles Community Treasury.”

3. The Sandbox

7-Day Sales Volume: $9.9 million
Number of Sales: 910
Highest Sale Price: $84,553

A snapshot from The Sandbox virtual metaverse The Sandbox

Explainer: “The Sandbox is a community-driven UGC-voxel platform where users own their LAND and host their creative magic.”

2. CryptoPunks

7-Day Sales Volume: $35.3 million
Number of Sales: 183
Highest Sale Price: $951,844

CryptoPunks Rokas Tenys

Explainer: “10,000 unique collectible characters with proof of ownership stored on the Ethereum blockchain. The project that inspired the modern CryptoArt movement.”

1. Bored Ape Yacht Club

7-Day Sales Volume: $75.8 million
Number of Sales: 916
Highest Sale Price: $834,938

This Bored Ape is just one of the NFTs auctioned at Sotheby’s recently. Sotheby’s

Explainer: “BAYC is a collection of 10,000 Bored Ape NFTs — unique digital collectibles living on the Ethereum blockchain. Your Bored Ape doubles as your Yacht Club membership card, and grants access to members-only benefits.”

The 5 Best-Selling NFT Collections of Last Week Include Doodles, FLUF (businessinsider.com)


9. 75% Of People Who Bought a Home During Pandemic Have Regrets

From Barry Ritholtz Blog

75% of people who bought a home during the pandemic have regrets: Here’s why

Source: Grow  https://ritholtz.com/2022/03/10-tuesday-am-reads-370/


10. Feeling Fatigued and Burned Out? Inflammation May Be Playing a Role

Srini Pillay M.D.

Are you wondering why you feel fatigued all the time?

KEY POINTS

  • A recent study showed that fatigue associated with the COVID-19 pandemic may be due to brain inflammation.
  • The inflammation was probably attributable to immune mechanisms that were activated because of social isolation.
  • Approaching your doctor is the first thing to do, but other tips to reduce inflammation and improve cognition include socializing and exercise.

 

Nearly three in five U.S. adult workers surveyed in 20211 by the American Psychological Association reported negative impacts of work-related stress, including a lack of interest, motivation, energy, and effort. Employees also reported experiencing cognitive weariness (36 percent), emotional exhaustion (32 percent), and physical fatigue (44 percent). Somehow, the pandemic-related burnout has felt different,2 and people can’t quite account for why they feel this way. A doctor even wrote about how it might have permanently changed him.3 And, until recently, there was no information clear enough to point to a possible reason, until this study from Massachusetts General Hospital in collaboration with King’s College London, The Maudsley NIHR Maudsley Biomedical Research Centre, and other collaborators.4

Study Comparing Brains Before and During Pandemic Lockdowns

This study compared 57 pre-pandemic and 15 pandemic data sets from individuals originally enrolled as control subjects for various completed or ongoing research studies available, with a confirmed negative test for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies. The investigators used a combination of brain-imaging modalities as well as blood samples to investigate whether there were any differences in the brains of healthy people before and during the pandemic after the lockdowns.

The study found that healthy individuals examined after the enforcement of the lockdown had elevated brain levels of two independent neuroinflammatory markers (the 18 kDa translocator protein, TSPO, and myoinositol) compared to pre-lockdown participants. And participants endorsing higher symptom burden showed higher TSPO signal in the hippocampus (mood alteration, mental fatigue), intraparietal sulcus, and precuneus (physical fatigue), compared to those reporting little or no symptoms. This implied that inflammation in these regions may have accounted for their mental and physical fatigue and mood alterations. This study provided preliminary signals that the lockdown had the effect of increasing brain inflammation, and this was probably due to immune mechanisms that were activated because of social isolation.

Prior studies would support this hypothesis. One study illustrated that adverse social experiences (social isolation, perceived social threat) may induce inflammatory responses while suppressing antiviral immunity, whereas positive experiences of social connection may reduce inflammation and bolster antiviral responses.5 Social isolation has also been associated with impaired memory6 and immune dysfunction in other studies.7 And studies have also demonstrated that social isolation could increase immune markers such as IL-6,8 and it could also increase microglial cell activity in the brain as part of this inflammatory response.9,10 Called sterile neuroinflammation, these changes resemble changes caused by infections, and they are correlated with fatigue and anxiety.11,12

What You Can Do

Aside from checking in with your primary care physician to clarify what is happening, there are a few things that you may try to help to get yourself out of his fatigued state:

1.   Socializing: The pandemic might have left you feeling somewhat isolated, but also perhaps pleased that you don’t have to interact with people. This may have left you smugly on your own, and you may even think you prefer this. However, to the extent that you can safely socialize, it could help to be around other people. A large number of studies have shown that social isolation impacts your life negatively in a variety of ways.13

2.   Diet: In her book, This Is Your Brain on Food,14 Harvard psychiatrist Dr. Uma Naidoo explains that neuroinflammation is a real thing. She recommends anti-inflammatory and fiber-rich foods. Spices like turmeric with black pepper can help, and she refers to how helpful it can be to eat vegetables that are the colors of the rainbow, such as peppers, tomatoes, and leafy greens. Take this idea to your doctor to personalize your diet for you.

3.   Nature-based imagery: Studies have shown that viewing nature15,16 can have beneficial effects on the brain. We have demonstrated17 that people can feel clearer and focus better with less anxiety and emotional distress just 10 minutes after viewing nature in virtual reality, and we have also found that people are less fixated on worry.18 Both studies have been accepted by peer-reviewed journals and will be published soon.

4.   Physical exercise: Physical exercise can improve the neuroimmune response19 and can be anti-inflammatory.20 Work with your doctor to determine what routine is best for you.

Social isolation could lead to brain inflammation. But there are things that you can start doing today about this, so why not begin now?

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/debunking-myths-the-mind/202203/feeling-fatigued-and-burned-out-inflammation-may-be-playing