1. Online CC Retail Spending Rolls Over.
Category Archives: Quarterly
Topley’s Top 10 – July 15, 2021
Topley’s Top 10 – July 14, 2021
Topley’s Top 10 – July 13, 2021
1. Retail Investors Share of Stock Trading Volume Running at Double the Last Decade
From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading
Topley’s Top 10 – July 12, 2021
1. The Shiller PE Ratio 37X…Approaching 2000 Levels but Big Difference in Interest Rate Levels.
Ben Carlson Blog-The Shiller PE ratio now stands at 37x, the second highest valuation in history for this measure.
Investors don’t care because people want and/or need to own stocks.
What’s Driving the Stock, Bond & Housing Markets Right Now?by Ben Carlson
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/07/whats-driving-the-stock-bond-housing-markets-right-now/
2. Reflation Trade Fades and Mega Cap Tech Hits New Highs.
FAANGM added $1Trillion in market cap since June..MGC ETF-Mega Cap Tech
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3. Value Has Given Up The Ghost
Bespoke Investment Group-In the last few months of 2020 and throughout 2021, the S&P 500 Value ETF (IVE) was consistently outperforming its growth counterpart (IVW). Since its most recent high in early June, though, IVE has given up the ghost falling 2.5%. Although not a dramatic decline, IVE’s drop has coincided with a rally of 7.3% in IVW and an even larger 12.5% rally off the May 12th lows.
With growth having gained so much ground on value, on Tuesday, IVW’s year-to-date performance actually moved above that of IVE. That has continued to be the case through the rest of the week as IVW is currently outperforming IVE on a year-to-date basis by almost a full percentage point. Additionally, looking at the past year’s relative strength between the two ETFs, the recent divergence in performance has resulted in relative strength reverting back to zero meaning growth and value have roughly performed in line with one another over the one year span.
https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/value-has-given-up-the-ghost
4. S&P 500 Perfect Earnings Record Is on the Line With Peak Growth
Bloomberg- Lu Wang
After second-quarter results finish rolling out, income growth for S&P 500 firms is forecast to slow in each of the next three quarters as the boost from government stimulus winds down and the base effect from the pandemic recession fades. By the start of next year, the pace of profit growth will dwindle to less than 5%, a fraction of what’s expected to be the fastest expansion in more than a decade for the quarter just ended, data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence show.
Similar post-peak periods haven’t boded well for stocks in the past. Since 1927, when earnings momentum started waning, two-thirds of the time the S&P 500 fell or performed worse than usual in the following quarter.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-perfect-earnings-record-110000295.html
5. Global Venture Funding Hits All-Time High In First Half Of 2021, With $288B Invested
Gené Teare-Crunchbase
A greater number of those venture-backed companies have gone public valued above $10 billion so far this year — just half-way in — than in all of 2020. And already this year, another 250 companies have joined the Crunchbase Unicorn Board, compared to 161 new unicorns for the whole of 2020.
Crunchbase numbers show that global venture funding in the first half of 2021 surged 61 percent compared to the prior peak of $179 billion in the second half of 2020. That’s up 95 percent compared with the first half of 2020, when venture investors deployed $148 billion globally.
Record funding was invested at every stage in the first half of this year. Late-stage funding peaked the most, more than doubling year over year, per Crunchbase numbers. Early-stage funding grew more than 60 percent over the prior two half-year time-frames and seed funding gained 40 percent year over year.
https://news.crunchbase.com/news/global-vc-funding-h1-2021-monthly-recap/
6. Covid Unicorn Blowout
| Unicorns are rare. Kids know that, and it’s why the name stuck as the descriptor for private startup companies that were valued at more than $1bn. But recently, amidst a frenzy of funding activity, unicorns have become a lot less special. Data from a new CB Insights report reveals that 136 unicornswere created in the second quarter of this year — which is more than for all of 2017, when 85 companies made it into the “three comma club”. FOMO With stock markets near record highs, economic activity returning (kinda) and interest rates still at historic lows it’s no surprise that there is a lot of money sloshing around trying to find a home in the nextFacebook, Googleor Amazon. As competition intensifies for the hottest deals the “fear of missing out” (FOMO) gets pretty real, and investors are willing to give the same money for a smaller slice of the equity pie — which means higher valuations for the startups themselves. Data from another source (Pitchbook) finds that it’s a similar story in early-stage investing. A decade ago the median early-stage pre-money valuation for a startup was somewhere around $10m. Today it’s more like $40m. If you would like to fund Chartr at this kind of valuation please get in touch. |
7. Banks Forward P/E 70% lower than S&P
Marketwatch–Here’s another chart showing forward price-to-earnings valuations for the S&P 500 bank industry group against the full index, since the end of 2019:
The weighted aggregate forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 has increased to 21.8 from 18.4 at the end of 2019. Meanwhile, the forward P/E for the banks has declined slightly to 11.8 from 12.1.
FACTSET
8. U.S. retailers shun indoor malls, shift to open-air centers
Nivedita BaluPraveen Paramasivam
July 9 (Reuters) – Even in the depths of the 2009 financial crisis, it was never this bad for the owners of the world’s biggest shopping malls.
New real estate industry data for June reveals that vacancy rates in the United States’ indoor malls could surpass those in suburban shopping centers and strip malls.
The figures from property consultancy Jones Lang LaSalle come on top of a series of bankruptcies and takeovers, which has seen even sector leader Simon Property Group (SPG.N) hand back control of some buildings to creditors or take over broken retail operations for their debts.
The JLL data predicts that U.S. indoor mall vacancy rates will peak at just under 9% this year compared to 7.8% for outdoor shopping centers and 7% for “power centers”, industry code for open-air centers anchored by big box retailers like Best Buy (BBY.N) or Target (TGT.N).
Experts say that a deeper change is underway, with property owners focusing investment on open air locations and smaller stores in cheaper locations where shoppers can feel more at ease in the post-COVID world.
“The demand for space right now is higher than I’ve seen it in 15 years,” said David Lukes, chief executive officer of SITE Centers, who runs over a hundred power and shopping centers.
Deals done or underway with retailers include Macy’s (M.N), Lululemon Athletica (LULU.O), Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY.O), Warby Parker and Walmart’s (WMT.N) Bonobos.
In Chicago, for example, Macy’s has shut its sprawling store in the Water Tower Place building on Michigan Avenue’s “Magnificent Mile”, a magnet for thousands of shoppers and tourists every weekend for the past half century.
The company is turning to modest buildings like its new “Market by Macy’s”, set on a canalside lot in Fort Worth, Texas and flanked by a steakhouse and a branch of Wells Fargo.
In 2009, vacancy rates for the more downmarket properties peaked at 11% while malls still showed rates of just 5%.
But for Macy’s and others, the cost reward has become compelling: average annual rent for shopping centers in the first quarter of the year was $20.36 per square foot, as little as a third of the cost of big city centre malls.
At Magnificent Mile, vacancy more than doubled to over 8% currently from 4% in late 2019. Rents fell by 2.5% over the past year to a still very high $62.30, according to industry data provider CoStar.
Alexander Levy, senior consultant at CoStar, said shopping centers in suburban areas have fared better than malls in urban areas since U.S. pandemic-related restrictions began to ease in the first quarter.
Signet (SIG.N), Ethan Allen Interiors (ETH.N) and Express (EXPR.N) are among those to have opened stores in suburban areas, ranging from the suburbs of San Mateo, California and Southlake to smaller towns like Westport, Connecticut and Towson, Maryland.
“We are experiencing the migration to the suburbs right now,” said Conor Flynn, chief executive of U.S. investment trust Kimco Realty (KIM.N), which owns nearly 400 open-air shopping centres and complexes based around grocery stores.
“I’m cautiously optimistic that the lion’s share of what we’ve experienced is sticky.”
MALLRATS NO MORE
City center landlords have responded by turning some city malls into mixed use retail and residential buildings.
In Britain, Intu, owner of Manchester’s Trafford Centre shopping that called in the administrators last year, said they had applied for permission to use its outdoor space for events, food stalls and an urban beach.
Others, like office and mall owner British Land, say they are now targeting “last mile” logistics, to get online orders to consumers’ doorsteps as fast as possible.
For ex-mall goer and Bay Area resident Ian Fagalar, it may all be too late: the Hilltop Mall he frequented as a kid in Richmond, California is now being converted for residential and other uses.
“Retail stores are dropping like flies,” he says. “I shop online 99% of the time now.”
9.Key Events That Shaped Generations.
Found at Barry Ritholtz The Big Picture Blog https://ritholtz.com
10. 10 of the Most Surprising Findings in Psychology
How behavioral science regularly teaches us something new.
KEY POINTS
- Psychology is regularly accused of being a “soft science,” full of intuitive information.
- In fact, the behavioral sciences use rigorous methodological and statistical procedures, producing useful and novel findings.
- Here are 10 findings (of thousands) from the behavioral sciences that shed important and novel light on the human experience. The behavioral sciences (which I see as a subset of psychology proper) are sometimes accused of being “soft” and of being full of intuitive findings. Honestly, if this all were true, I would have had a hard time dedicating the last three decades of my career to this field!
In fact, behavioral scientists are trained intensively in rigorous methodological and statistical procedures. I took seven statistics courses across my own undergraduate and graduate career as an example.
One measure of how useful our field is pertains to the ability to turn up novel findings about human behavior that are not simply intuitive. OK, I’ll admit that sometimes in our field, we do publish something that everyone already knows (such as research showing that kids don’t like bitter vegetables). That said, when you start to look for non-intuitive findings in the field, you end up seeing many of them. And these findings provide important insight into the broader human experience.
Below are 10 such findings that will, hopefully, encourage the reader to step back and see the importance of behavioral science in a bigger frame.
1. Under some conditions, paying people for their work makes them work less hard.
Classic work on the topic of cognitive dissonance has found that under many conditions, if you pay someone to do some task, they realize that they are only doing it for the money, and their motivation regarding the task itself reduces dramatically (see Festinger & Carlsmith, 1959).
2. Many people are capable of killing someone who is totally innocent if an authority figure requests them to do so.
In his classic research on obedience to authority, Stanley Milgram found that a substantial majority of regular Americans are capable of engaging in behavior that would kill an innocent man simply because an authority figure requested that they do so (Milgram, 1963).
3. Reactions to infidelity account for about one-third of homicides in the modern world.
An analysis of thousands of homicides from two large North American cities found that a full one-third of homicides are connected, in a significant way, with infidelity (Daly & Wilson, 1982).
4. Basic facial expressions of emotions cut across all cultures of the globe.
The way that people express and understand emotional facial expressions varies almost zero percent across all human groups that have ever been studied (Ekman & Friesen, 1986).
5. We tend to see people who are in “other” groups as all the same as one another relative to people in our own groups.
When we think of people as being members of some “other” group from our own, we literally are unable to see variability among them; we literally tend to see them as “all the same” (Haslam et al., 1996). This phenomenon is known as outgroup homogeneity.
6. Our psychological connections with dogs and cats have strong roots in the human evolutionary story.
Next time you look at your dog or your cat, realize that our psychological connections with these creatures actually go far back into human evolutionary history. They joined us in this journey for very specific, evolution-based reasons.
7. The same five basic personality traits characterize people across the globe.
Research into basic personality traits, which shows much variability from person to person, has found that the same basic personality traits—extraversion, emotional stability, open-mindedness, agreeableness, and conscientiousness—characterize how people differ from one another in all corners of the Earth (see Schmitt et al., 2007).
8. Situational factors account for more “evil” behavior than do dispositional factors.
A mountain of research on “evil” or anti-social behavior points to this conclusion: Evil behavior is much more the result of situational factors than dispositional factors.Thus, it is more accurate to talk about environmental conditions that facilitate evil behavior than it is to talk about “bad people” (see Zimbardo, 2007).
9. Anxiety actually has an important role in human functioning.
While on the surface, we tend to think of anxiety as simply problematic and as something that we need to reduce, in fact, anxiety acts very much like a Darwinian adaptation, leading to benefits such as success at all kinds of tasks. A moderate degree of anxiety is, in fact, a good thing (see Nesse & Williams, 1994).
ar
10. There really is something to the idea of true love. And we can see it in people’s brains.
True love really is a thing, and it can be observed in neural activity in the brain. Helen Fisher has dedicated a lifetime of intensive research that ultimately points toward this conclusion (see Fisher, 2012).
Bottom line
Across the past several decades, work in the behavioral sciences has shed light on a broad array of topics that underlie the human experience. Work in this field is not subjective, fluffy, nor intuitive. It is, in fact, rigorous science that utilizes the most advanced statistical processes available in an effort to help us better understand who we are.
The 10 not-necessarily-intuitive findings summarized here are, in fact, the tip of the iceberg. Welcome to scientific psychology.
Facebook/LinkedIn image: Mix Tape/Shutterstock
Glenn Geher Ph.D.
Disclosure
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Topley’s Top 10 – July 9, 2021
1. Inflation Readings Peaked and Tech Stocks Rallied 15%
Dave Lutz Jones Trading–Falling U.S. bond yields may signal death knell for ‘reflation’ stock trade – Investors piled in to shares of energy producers, banks and other companies expected to benefit from a powerful economic rebound earlier this year while betting that Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, would rise.
Topley’s Top 10 – July 8, 2021
Topley’s Top 10 – July 6, 2021
1. S&P 500 Gained 5% Five Quarters in a Row Only the Second Time Since 1945
Barrons–For the S&P 500, Friday’s close was its seventh high in row, the longest streak since 1997. The index, with a gain in June, rose for a fifth consecutive month, the longest streak since August 2020. It also gained 8.2% during the second quarter of 2021, its fifth consecutive quarterly gain, which is the longest streak since the fourth quarter of 2017. Its first-half gain of 14.4% was the best since 2019 and the second-best since 1998. There’s clearly strength in those numbers.
Continue readingTopley’s Top 10 – July 2, 2021
Happy 4th of July
1. RobinHood Claims to “Democratize Trading.”…..$70m Fine Largest Ever by Finra Yesterday……..61% of Revenues Come From Options Trading According to IPO Filing.
Days after Charlie Munger called Robinhood ‘a gambling parlor,’ the free-trading app revealed options trading as its largest source of revenue
Topley’s Top 10 – July 1, 2021
1. New Relative Strength Lows vs. S&P 500 for Utilities and Staples.
Dave Lutz Jones Trading–Investors have been rotating back into the technology stocks that they favored during Covid-19 lockdowns after inflation fears eased and low bond yields spurred a hunt for better returns. Optimism about the economic recovery, the prospect of more fiscal stimulus and confidence that the Federal Reserve will continue to support credit markets has also boosted sentiment in recent days, WSJ reports.
Topley’s Top 10 – June 30, 2021
1. Tech Funds See Redemptions as they Rally to New Highs.
From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading-That said, EPFR notes Tech fund outflows continuing to accelerate so the pain trade is a Tech Rally
Topley’s Top 10 – June 29, 2021
Topley’s Top 10 – June 25, 2021
1. Pure Growth Best Month vs. Pure Value Since January 2020.
Liz Ann Schwab notes pure growth heading for its best month relative to pure value since January 2020
Topley’s Top 10 – June 23, 2021
Topley’s Top 10 – June 22, 2021
Topley’s Top 10 – June 17, 2021
Topley’s Top 10 – June 16, 2021
Topley’s Top 10 – June 15, 2021
1.Hedge Funds Net Long S&P Highest Since 2013
Hedge funds continuing to boost their S&P 500 bets … positioning is most bullish since 2013
Liz Ann Sonders, @LizAnnSonders
Topley’s Top 10 – June 14, 2021
1. Cyclically Adjusted CAPE Ratio Approaching 1999 Levels.
Big difference with interest rates 5% 1999 vs. 1.5% 2021
Topley’s Top 10 – June 10, 2021
1.Over the last three weeks, high short interest stocks are up 22% versus the market which is up 2%
From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading
Continue readingTopley’s Top 10 – June 9, 2021
Topley’s Top 10 – June 8, 2021
Topley Top 10 – June 2, 2021
1. Market’s Attention to Geopolitical Risk Drops to Negative….Lowest in 5 Years.
Chart of the week-BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator – global
Topley’s Top 10 – May 28, 2021
1. Gold and Bitcoin Have Moved Inversely in 2021
Eddie Spence and Nishant Kumar
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-set-tear-even-higher-230000863.html
2. U.S. Dollar Chart About to Make New Low Break Support
Dollar Index 50 day closed below 200 day….breaking support
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3. 30 Year Treasury Yield Hit a Wall at 200 Day Moving Average.
Consensus is higher but yield on 30 year only rallied back to 2019 levels
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4.ARK Innovation Fund Update
ARKK had -37% correction…
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However….Longer-Term chart ARKK was below $50 pre-covid.
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5. Spinoff Stocks ETF—22% Above All-Time Highs….+19% YTD
Spinoffs historical alpha generating strategy about to break out to another new high
6. Wage Inflation-Record Gap Between Wages and Corporate Profits.
Will this gap close?
CHART VIA AJ BELL. SOURCE: ST. LOUIS FEDERAL RESERVE DATABASE, U.S. BUREAU FOR LABOR STATISTICS
Between stories of fast-food restaurants struggling to find burger flippers and news that Amazon will hire 75,000 workers at an average pay of more than $17 an hour — well above U.S. minimum wage — rising pay is on the mind.
“Workers and their families may well be thinking ‘about time, too,’” said Russ Mould, an analyst at AJ Bell, who provided our chart of the day. “Since 1947, Americans’ pay has fallen by 5 percentage points as a portion of GDP. American corporate profits have increased by almost exactly the same amount.”
7. Driving Season…Retail Gas Highest Since 2014
Retail gasoline prices are at about $3.04 a gallon on average nationwide, the most expensive since 2014 – And after a year of lockdowns to curb the coronavirus pandemic, tens of millions of American road-trippers are expected to be stung by those prices: More than 34 million Americans are expected to take to the highways between May 27 and May 31, AAA expects, an increase of 53% from last year but still down 10% from 2019.
From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading
8. Extreme Correlation Between Stocks and Bonds.
Advisor Perspectives Blog –Furthermore, given the extremely high correlation between stocks and bonds, a level of extreme not seen since the “Dot.com” peak
The Fed will continue to supply liquidity, which will help the market ignore the reality of the majority of return barometers. However, as we saw in March of 2020, that does not preclude hair-raising volatility and significant declines. But, to Yardeni’s point, in the short-term Fed liquidity does support prices on the margin regardless of the environment.
9. Crypto is 1% of Global Assets….3 80% Drawdowns in 10 Years
So. Much. Crypto-Cullen Roche
I am about to write a post entirely about crypto. But before I do that I want to make it clear that this space gets WAY too much attention. I mean, we’re talking about an asset class that is incredibly small relative to the scope of the global financial asset portfolio. At just 1% of global financial assets the entire crypto space is about the size of Amazon. Amazingly though, the crypto space dominates the airwaves. It’s virtually all anyone can talk about these days. So, here I am to pile on.
Of course, the reason it’s getting so much attention is because of the sharp increase in prices. Crypto is the get rich quick narrative of the year. Or, more recently, the get poor quickly narrative. I was looking at the long-term charts of this space and it’s just incredible. Here’s the recent rise and fall:
And here’s the max drawdown chart. This is an asset class that has only existed for 10 years and has already experienced three drawn out 80% declines. Amazing stuff and kudos to the people who actually held on through all of this.
I don’t really know where I am going with all of this. I guess I am trying to add some broader perspective around narratives that some times make crypto seem much more important to our economy than it really is. Which, I guess is consistent with how the financial media tends to focus on these things. The highest flyers get the most attention, whether it’s a silly ad talking about how “Joe Schmo made $1MM betting on XYZ Penny stock” or whatever.
https://www.pragcap.com/three-things-i-think-i-think-crypto-crypto-crypto/
10. This Bonkers 19-Foot Rolls-Royce Boat Tail May Be the Most Expensive New Car in History
Jeremy Taylor
Thu, May 27, 2021, 8:02 AM·3 min read
Rolls-Royce is notoriously coy about the price of its truly bespoke limousines, yet since this new, outrageously decadent Boat Tail was inspired by the $13 million Rolls-Royce Sweptail from 2017, but with increased complexity, it may easily be the most expensive new car to date. (That title currently resides with Bugatti’s La Voiture Noire, which sold for a reported $18.7 million after taxes.) The stunning cabriolet is named after the tapered rear end—a style which dates back to the 1920s, when cars like the Auburn 851 Speedster and Bentley Speed Six Boat-Tail were the talk of the town.
In the very early days of boat-tail design, engineers would simply fix the hull of a boat onto the rolling chassis of a car, creating a streamlined automobile with a nautical theme. It’s a design which disappeared gracefully into the history books, until now.
The new Rolls-Royce Boat Tail measures an ocean-going 19 feet in length and is based on the aluminum spaceframe platform shared by the Phantom, Cullinan and new Ghost models, and it shares the same 6.75-liter V-12 engine. Otherwise, this remarkable car is decked out like no other Rolls-Royce on the planet.
The example showcased is one of three different Boat Tail versions that have been recently hand-built as customer commissions, this one for a mystery man and his wife living Stateside—both believed to be in the music industry. And I was recently granted a sneak preview before the car is ceremoniously handed over.
The most eye-catching feature of this vehicle is the enormous, hand-painted Azur blue bonnet, graduating down to a lighter shade. Up front, a painted Rolls-Royce pantheon grille replaces the traditional stainless-steel finish for the first time in the modern era.
At the rear, twin side-opening compartments are hinged in the middle and open like butterfly wings to reveal an Aladdin’s cave of goodies. On the nearside, a dual champagne cooler was specifically designed to fit bottles of the owner’s favorite Armand de Brignac vintage. On the other side is a set of crockery by Christofle of Paris matched to salt and pepper grinders, all engraved with the car’s name. Caviar is kept cool in a proper onboard fridge—with various other food compartments—rather than a chiller.
The crowning glory, however, is a parasol that slots into the rear of the Boat Tail to provide extra shade. With a stainless-steel shaft and aluminum coupling, the high tensile fabric is stretched over carbon-fiber stays. And just to be sure, it was tested in a wind tunnel.
Rolls worked with Swiss-based House of Bovet to create reversible “his and hers” watches for the couple who own the car. The centerpiece of the minimalist dashboard is a slot to insert one of the timepieces, serving double duty as the Boat Tail clock.
One side of the man’s watch is said to show the celestial pattern above his birthplace. A titanium drawer beneath the “clock” slot is designed to carry another wrist watch, particularly important in this Rolls, as Alex Innes, the head of the marque’s Coachbuild Design department, explained.
“One of the great characteristics of piloting a Rolls-Royce is the light steering and thin steering wheel,” notes Innes. “This particular client likes to remove his wristwatch when driving and hated the idea that it would be stowed of sight.”
The Boat Tail is a four-seat convertible with an emergency tonneau, just in case the heavens open. The car is also provided with a detachable carbon-fiber roof that turns the Rolls into a breathtaking coupe. A lightweight aluminum hoist for the latter is, naturally, included in the package.
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/rolls-royce-boat-tail-may-120200931.html
Topley’s Top 10 – May 27, 2021
Topley’s Top 10 – May 26, 2021
1. Momentum Re-Balance to Value—MTUM ETF Re-Bal–Tech weighting -23% vs. Financials +31%
Momentum Re-Balance (MTUM ETF) –This is sector rotation strategy.
Nice look at the massive sector changes coming in the $MTUM rebalance this month, big move into value stocks. Financials is the new Tech via
Topley’s Top 10 – March 25, 2021
1. Massive Amount of Retail and Institutional Cash Sitting in Money Markets.
Jefferies
Topley’s Top 10 – May 24, 2021
1. Bitcoin Bear…BTC -54%….ETH -55%….BNB -60%….DOGE -70%
Crypto Correction
It was a tough week for Crypto, with 50-70% declines across the major assets… For Bitcoin, high volatility and large drawdowns are par for the course. We’ve seen declines larger than this many times throughout its history…
Topley’s Top 10 – May 21, 2021
1. Tech vs. Energy Sector Weighting Spread in S&P.
Momentum ETFs are re-balancing in coming weeks…watch for changes in sectors.
Topley’s Top 10 – May 20, 2021
1. Crypto Shaves $850B Off Market Cap….Still a Blip on Chart
Crypto markets have shaved more than $850 billion from their combined market value, according to CoinMarketCap.com.
Topley’s Top 10 – May 19, 2021
Topley’s Top 10 – May 18, 2021
Topley’s Top 10 – May 17, 2021
1. Jim Simons Medallion Fund-The GOAT by a Long Shot
What About the Medallion Fund’s Annual Returns?
So, how does the Medallion Fund make money? It finds individual patterns in data and exploits each pattern just enough to turn a small profit. And when you add up all of those small profits, you end up making a lot of money.
Since inception, the Medallion Fund has only lost money in a single year net of fees (1989). More importantly though, the fund’s returns have been partially negatively correlated with the market (correlation = -0.4For example, in 2008 when the S&P 500 lost 37%, the Medallion Fund posted a gain of 82% net of fees!
As impressive as their performance was, comparing the Medallion Fund’s annual returns (net of fees) to the S&P 500 takes their accomplishment to another level:
Topley’s Top 10 – May 12, 2021
1. Highest 4 Month Total in Stock Buybacks 20 Years
BONANZA– Companies are preparing to launch a record wave of share buybacks as executives get comfortable with spending excess cash following a blockbuster earnings season and greater clarity on the trajectory of the world economy. US companies announced $484bn in share buybacks in the first four months of this year, the highest such total in at least two decades, according to Goldman (FT) In what its analysts dubbed a “buyback bonanza”, Goldman projected shares repurchases by US companies would increase 35 per cent this year from 2020.
Topley’s Top 10 – May 12, 2021
1. Goldman Sachs Non-Profit Tech Index -36% from Highs
Holger Zschaepitz https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner
2. IPO ETF -29% from Highs.
IPO ETF breaks thru Dec. 2020 levels
Long-term weekly chart closes below 50 day but still way above pre-covid 2019 levels
3. Chinese Tech Giants -30% from Highs
Chinese tech giants have borne the brunt of the sector’s retreat this month, after regulators expanded an antitrust crackdown and announced steps to rein in the companies’ fast-growing finance units. Meituan’s stock plunged as much as 8.6 per cent in early Tuesday trading, taking the slump over two days to 15 per cent after the Shanghai Consumer Council released criticism late Monday on issues that hurt consumer rights. With talk of tighter regulation from Beijing, Chinese tech heavyweights Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent, collectively dubbed the BATs, all dropped more than 3%.
4. Semiconductor Stocks -10% Correction from Highs.
No Breakout for Semi ETF.
5. 55% of ARKK Total Lifetime Flows are now Under Water
Eric Balchunas, @EricBalchunas
Roughly 55% of $ARKK‘s total lifetime flows are under water now as they came in after Nov 2020, which is the level its price has fallen to. Also true is the fund is STILL up 78% over past 12mo, $QQQ 44%. Can’t not add that context, sorry. Here’s a quick look at the situation:
6. Decentralized Finance Growth …Smart Contracts Cross $10B Mark.
What is DeFi?-Definition
Short for decentralized finance, DeFi is an umbrella term for peer-to-peer financial services on public blockchains, primarily Ethereum.
DeFi (or “decentralized finance”) is an umbrella term for financial services on public blockchains, primarily Ethereum. With DeFi, you can do most of the things that banks support — earn interest, borrow, lend, buy insurance, trade derivatives, trade assets, and more — but it’s faster and doesn’t require paperwork or a third party. As with crypto generally, DeFi is global, peer-to-peer (meaning directly between two people, not routed through a centralized system), pseudonymous, and open to all.
Contracts Cross 10B
DeFi still is a niche market with relatively low volumes—however, these numbers are growing rapidly. The value of funds that are locked in DeFi-related smart contracts recently crossed 10 billion USD. It is essential to understand that these are not transaction volume or market cap numbers; the value refers to reserves locked in smart contracts for use in various ways that will be explained in the course of this paper. Figure 1 shows the Ether (ETH, the native cryptoasset of Ethereum) and USD values of the assets locked in DeFi applications.
Figure 1
Total Value Locked in DeFi Contracts (USD and ETH)
NOTE: M, million.
SOURCE: DeFi Pulse.
The spectacular growth of these assets alongside some truly innovative protocols suggests that DeFi may become relevant in a much broader context and has sparked interest among policymakers, researchers, and financial institutions. This article is targeted at individuals from these organizations with an economics or legal background and serves as a survey and an introduction to the topic. In particular, it identifies opportunities and risks and should be seen as a foundation for further research.
Decentralized Finance: On Blockchain- and Smart Contract-Based Financial Marketsby Fabian Schär
7. The Most Job Openings Ever in the U.S.
8. Pizza Machines Coming Via Robot
Piestro | The Future of Artisanal Pizza
From Morning Brew Morning Brew
9. Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector
10. Afraid of Change? 6 Ways to Embrace It—
Change doesn’t have to be bad, even if it’s unwelcome
KEY POINTS
- Even as we long for change, we tend to prefer the safety of our routines.
- The negative impact of change tends to be overestimated, and therefore avoided.
- A mindset of growth, careful risk-calculation, and novelty-seeking can help leverage anxiety control, so you can get on with living your life.
We are afraid of change.
Whether it’s facing post-pandemic bak-to-work, an unknown event forced into our calendar, or the simple change of season requiring the perennial change of wardrobe and routine. Most of us don’t like change, and we seldom foresee its good side, even as it appears a prerequisite for almost all that strengthens us in life. Despite its likelihood of portending something positive, in the face of change, we resist. We cling to what we know – even if stuck in our routines – because we are afraid that we won’t like, and worse, can’t handle what is ahead.
Ironically it is resistance, and not the process of change itself, that actually burdens us. Fighting change ignites fear and anxiety, robs us of novelty needed for health, and is exhausting. In the end, most of adjust, even if we kick and scream. If you feel yourself resisting risk and feel afraid of change, here are a few things to keep in mind that can help ease your dread.
1. We overestimate how bad things might be. Thanks perhaps to negativity bias or simply a habit of catastrophizing, we are prone to overestimate future pain which in turn drives up anxiety and resistance. If one listens to every worry and avoids all risk, success will remain out of reach, and anxiety will continue its escalation, having been reinforced by avoidance. The trick is to learn how to work with your anxiety and discover where your anxiety could be holding you back, rather than just protecting you. There are times when anxiety’s message needs to be considered, but then overturned in favor of action. Action is where the relief is, not avoidance.
2. Taking risks and embracing change allows us to grow. To grow and adapt is to stretch outside our comfort zone, that is to say, depart from what’s comfortable. People in business understand that success in any competitive endeavor involves risk – to take advantage of an upside, one has to be willing to invest when others won’t. This means being uncomfortable. Not all discomfort or risk is advisable, of course, and risks need to be considered carefully. Risk taking isn’t about taking any risk, it’s about taking smart risks.
3. Calculating risk allows you to take control. Still not sure what’s a smart risk, and what’s just a bad idea? Try taking anxiety out of the equation by asking yourself, “what would you do if you couldn’t fail?” This should help you rebalance the thinking parts of the decision from the emotional parts. If you are risk averse, and struggle with letting anxiety get the better of you, look to balance facts in calculating a decision.
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4. Novelty helps . Ironically it is precisely when we are overstretched that we are primed for change, and ready to be inspired by novelty. Novelty requires energy, but can deliver it too. Curiosity, a different perspective, and intrinsic motivation are all helped by new situations and experiences. These are the things we need when we are stuck and overwhelmed. So if you need a boost of motivation, look to find novelty in the changes ahead.
5. How you fail is more important than if you fail. In business, in relationships, and in life, failing is part of learning, and sometimes delivers the most powerful learning there is. Thanks to evolution, we are primed to notice and learn from our mistakes so as not to make them again. But that shouldn’t mean we set out to avoid them all together, an impossible goal. Instead we should aim to manage how we learn from our mistakes. This is what it means to have a growth mindset, to expect failure and change as part of the creative process.
6. Balanced stretching produces the most growth. We can’t grow if we don’t stretch, but we won’t grow unless we rest. Balancing exertion with rest is the key to managing a growth process effectively, and keeping ourselves strong. This means managing your body and your human resources. Making good nutritional choices, moving your body, and prioritizing sleep are the three most important things you can do to maintain optimal mental and physical health.
Change inherently feels uncomfortable, but that doesn’t mean it is bad. Make the best rational decision you can, channel courage – that is, believe something is more important than your anxiety – and take action. Simply making a decision is an action, and action always feels better than avoidance and risk aversion. That’s not to say this is easy, but it works. If you struggle with change, how might you spark your curiosity for what’s ahead, and allow yourself to lose a bit more sight of the shore?
Looking for more help understanding your anxiety? Visit my website , get the Hack Your Anxiety book , or read more about my wellness and anxiety programs here .
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/hack-your-anxiety/202105/afraid-change-6-ways-embrace-it
Disclosure
Indices that may be included herein are unmanaged indices and one cannot directly invest in an index. Index returns do not reflect the impact of any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. The index information included herein is for illustrative purposes only.
Material for market review represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results.
Material compiled by Lansing Street Advisors is based on publicly available data at the time of compilation. Lansing Street Advisors makes no warranties or representation of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to the use such data.
To the extent that content includes references to securities, those references do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or hold such security as information is provided for educational purposes only. Articles should not be considered investment advice and the information contain within should not be relied upon in assessing whether or not to invest in any securities or asset classes mentioned. Articles have been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Securities discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Please keep in mind that a company’s past financial performance, including the performance of its share price, does not guarantee future results.
Lansing Street Advisors is a registered investment adviser with the State of Pennsylvania..
Topley’s Top 10 – May 11, 2021
1. One Financial Product Group is not Under Industry Fee Pressure—Grayscale Bitcoin Quasi-Closed End—2 Products $1B in Revenue-Double the Revenue of QQQ
The $756 Million Product-Sumit Roy ETF.com
Another product that exhibits this power is the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). To be clear, GBTC isn’t an ETF (it’s a quasiclosed-end fund that periodically offers private placements to accredited investors). It’s not even a product that trades on a U.S. exchange (it trades over the counter and is quoted on the OTCQX).
But it is a product that provides exposure to bitcoin in a way that is valued by investors and at a time in which the cryptocurrency has been on fire. GBTC charges a 2% annual fee, which, when applied to its $36 billion in assets under management, equals revenue of a whopping $756 million.
To put that in perspective, that’s more than double the implied revenue of the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), the U.S.-listed ETF with the largest revenue haul. It’s even more than the combined haul of QQQ and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), which together generate $650.6 million in revenues.
If you add the $10 billion Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) into the mix, Grayscale is pulling in an estimated $1 billion per year from just two products (it has another 12 much smaller products).
For Grayscale to generate close to a $1 billion from just two products—the amount Vanguard takes in from all 82 of its ETFs—is truly impressive. For context, the entire U.S.-listed ETF industry generates revenues of just under $12 billion across almost 2,500 funds, with 56% of that going to BlackRock, State Street and Vanguard.
| Ticker | Name | Expense Ratio | AUM ($B) | Implied Revenue |
| GBTC | Grayscale Bitcoin Trust | 2.00% | 37.81 | 756,192,759 |
| ETHE | Grayscale Ethereum Trust | 2.50% | 9.97 | 249,273,851 |
Topley’s Top 10 – May 10, 2021
1.CLOU-Cloud Computing ETF Trades at 7x Sales.
Theme Based ETFs seeing massive increase in money flows driving up stocks
Topley’s Top 10 – May 7, 2021
1. Crypto Trading Boom
From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading
2. DBA Agriculture ETF
DBA-Agriculture ETF Spike Short-Term
Reality Long-Term still below half of pre 2008 highs….Not even back to 2018 levels yet
3. Momentum ETFs Correcting….Look for Sector Rotation on Re-Balances.
MTUM -6% from highs…
4. ISM Manufacturing Customer Inventories 25 Year Chart….Off the Grid.
Just in time inventory not Covid comeback ready
Source: Jefferies Trading Desk
Percy Allison
Jefferies LLC
5. U.S. Highway Miles Traveled: 2012-Present (yearly trough in February)
Summer driving season coming off 10 year lows with lockdown ending
6. Tech IPO Proceeds in Europe Closing in on 1999 Bubble.
Tech and internet firms have racked up proceeds of $9.2bn on Europe’s exchanges this year, most for this period since 2000, data compiled by BBG show. And w/more offerings under way, as much as $3bn could be added to the tally in the coming weeks.
Holger Zschaepitz, @Schuldensuehner
https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1390372555710771207/photo/1
7. Worst Stocks Post Earnings Yesterday ….-8% or More
Bespoke Investment Group
https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest
8. The Street Takes No Prisoners…Shorts Lining Up Against ARKK Largest Holdings.
List of ARKK Holdings Over 5% of Company Shares.
Keubiko, https://twitter.com/Keubiko
9. More NYT subscriptions coming from non-news products in the Biden era
Sara Fischer, author of Media Trends
Photo Illustration by Rafael Henrique/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
The New York Times on Wednesday said it added 301,000 new digital-only subscribers last quarter, its slowest quarter for digital subscriber growth in over a year.
Yes, but: New subscriber growth was weighted much more heavily this quarter towards non-news products than in any other previous quarter in the company’s history. A record 44% of The Times’ new digital subscribers came from non-core news products, like cooking, games and audio, last quarter.
- Typically, the percentage of new subscribers from non-news products hovers around 25-35%.
By the numbers: Of The Times’ 301,000 net new digital subscribers added last quarter, 134,000 came from its cooking, games and audio products.
- Another 167,000 new subscribers were added to its core news products.
- In total, The Times now has nearly 8 million paid subscribers, which is far ahead of even its closest news competitors — The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal.
The big picture: Times executives for years have emphasized that The New York Times isn’t just a newspaper, but a lifestyle services company.
- In the post-Trump news cycle, that focus on lifestyle services has already begun to serve The Times well, offering it a financial cushion when the news cycle is slow.
Bottom line: The Times had a stated goal of reaching 10 million paid subscribers by 2025. Despite a news cycle slowdown, it’s well on its way to meeting that goal ahead of schedule.
Flashback: Trump era pushes New York Times to new heights in 2020
10. The four dimensions of ability-based emotional intelligence
Scott Dust, Ph.D. Psychology Today
1. Perceiving emotions — The ability to identify emotions in self and others. This dimension is fundamental to the remaining dimensions, as it entails the self-awareness and other awareness of emotions that can then inform self-regulatory capacities.
2. Facilitating thought — The ability to understand how emotions can be used to communicate information and, in turn, use that understanding in ways that are context-appropriate. This dimension addresses the idea that it is not enough to be aware of emotions; we must also understand what they mean and how they manifest in unique situations.
3. Understanding emotions — The ability to comprehend how emotions combine and transition and to understand the meaning of such combinations and transitions. This dimension acknowledges that emotions are multi-faceted and fleeting and that some individuals are more adept at understanding these complexities.
4. Managing emotions — The ability to regulate how one’s emotions surface during interactions with others. This dimension is important in that it directly situates the awareness and self-regulatory processes specific to emotions within social settings.
The four emotional intelligence skills
1. Self-awareness — You recognize your emotions and how they are connected to your thoughts and behaviors.
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2. Social awareness — You recognize the emotions of others. This manifests as being more empathetic, such that you recognize the needs of others. It can also manifest as being attuned to the socio-cultural dynamics of situations.
3. Self-management — You are able to manage your emotions in ways that are healthy and situation-appropriate. You are able to separate stimulus from response such that you can choose to respond to stimuli in ways that are most appropriate.
4. Relationship management — You are able to develop and maintain relationships with others. You understand emotions well enough to make good decisions when communicating, influencing, and managing conflict.
Takeaway #2: Ability-based EQ and EQ skills are different constructs.
Emotional intelligence skill development
The theory behind EQ skill development is that individuals can proactively think about and act upon the behaviors that allow them to enhance their ability-based EQ. The exercises below are regularly recommended among proponents of skills-based EQ. Note that there is little evidence directly connecting EQ skill development to ability-based EQ. Nonetheless, each of the exercises below is associated with heightened self-awareness and self-regulatory capacities, outcomes that are associated with ability-based EQ.
· Journal — Conduct a daily reflection on your own emotions and your perceptions of others’ emotions. Then consider what you could have done differently to optimize your interactions with others based on those understandings.
· Meditate — Activities such as mindfulness mediation have proven to help individuals become more aware of their emotions. Additionally, such activities are thought to help individuals create more “space” between a stimulus and their response, which increases the likelihood of having an appropriate response.
· 360-degree assessment — Solicit feedback from peers, supervisors, and subordinates on your strengths and opportunities for improvement. This will help ensure you fully understand whether you are successfully navigating socio-cultural norms.
· Create opportunities for external feedback — Consider enrolling in a leadership certificate program or signing up for leadership/executive coaching. High-quality instructors, facilitators, and coaches can apply evidence-based approaches to deepen your self-reflective capacities. Additionally, obtaining third-party assistance can help cut through the biases and political concerns of undergoing such development within an organizational setting.
Takeaway #3: Participating in EQ skills development is likely to increase some of the correlates of ability-based EQ.
Concluding thoughts on emotional intelligence
Perhaps one of the most important steps of social science is constructing definition. Things get messy when conceptualization is loose, and dimensionality is unclear. My hope is that this article helps clarify some of the most common questions about EQ and, in doing so, helps future researchers and practitioners make sound decisions for advancing their initiatives.
Disclosure
Indices that may be included herein are unmanaged indices and one cannot directly invest in an index. Index returns do not reflect the impact of any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. The index information included herein is for illustrative purposes only.
Material for market review represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results.
Material compiled by Lansing Street Advisors is based on publicly available data at the time of compilation. Lansing Street Advisors makes no warranties or representation of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to the use such data.
To the extent that content includes references to securities, those references do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or hold such security as information is provided for educational purposes only. Articles should not be considered investment advice and the information contain within should not be relied upon in assessing whether or not to invest in any securities or asset classes mentioned. Articles have been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Securities discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Please keep in mind that a company’s past financial performance, including the performance of its share price, does not guarantee future results.
Lansing Street Advisors is a registered investment adviser with the State of Pennsylvania..
Topley’s Top 10 – May 6, 2021
1. Etherum +1200% 1 Year
Bitcoin is now less than 50% of crypto market cap
2. DOGE $87B Market Cap…Larger than Fedex, GM, Marriott?
Charlie Bilello, @charliebilello
3. Bitcoin is coming to hundreds of U.S. banks this year, says crypto custody firm NYDIG
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KEY POINTS
- For the first time, customers of some U.S. banks will soon be able to buy, hold and sell bitcoin through their existing accounts, according to crypto custody firm NYDIG.
- Banks are asking for bitcoin because they can see their customers sending dollars to Coinbase and other crypto exchanges, according to Yan Zhao, president of NYDIG.
- After rolling out the initial bitcoin product, NYDIG plans on other services, including debit card rewards paid in bitcoin and a new type of bank account that is FDIC insured, but pays interest in bitcoin, he said.
Bitcoin may be taking another step toward mainstream adoption, CNBC has learned.
For the first time, customers of some U.S. banks will soon be able to buy, hold and sell bitcoin through their existing accounts, according to crypto custody firm NYDIG.
The company, a subsidiary of $10 billion New York-based asset manager Stone Ridge, has partnered with fintech giant Fidelity National Information Services to enable U.S. banks to offer bitcoin in coming months, according to the two firms.
Hundreds of banks are already enrolled in the program, according to Patrick Sells, head of bank solutions at NYDIG. While the firm is in discussions with some of the biggest U.S. banks, many of the lenders that have agreed to participate are smaller institutions like Suncrest, a California-based community bank with seven branches.
“What we’re doing is making it simple for everyday Americans and corporations to be able to buy bitcoin through their existing bank relationships,” Sells said. “If I’m using my mobile application to do all of my banking, now I have the ability to buy, sell and hold bitcoin.”
Until now, bitcoin adopters have relied on apps from a new generation of fintech players like free trading brokerage Robinhood, payments giants PayPal and Square, or crypto-centric firms like Coinbase. Banks, on the other hand, have steered clear of bitcoin for retail customers, only recently announcing plans to allow rich wealth management clients to be able to wager on the cryptocurrency.
But banks are now asking for bitcoin because they can see their customers sending dollars to Coinbase, Kraken and other crypto exchanges, according to Yan Zhao, president of NYDIG.
“This is not just the banks thinking that their clients want bitcoin, they’re saying `We need to do this, because we see the data,’” Zhao said. “They’re seeing deposits going to the Coinbases and Galaxies and Krakens of the world.”
4. Mega-Cap Tech
Michael Batnick -The Irrelevant Investor
Look at Size of Amazon Web Services Alone vs. Some Market Giants
Let’s look at Amazon Web Services, for example. That segment reported $48 billion in revenue over the last 12 months. AWS is growing 30% a year and has 30% operating margins. Given the market environment, I think a 35x multiple on earnings is reasonable. Apple, for comparison purposes, has similar operating margins but isn’t growing nearly as fast, is trading at 28x earnings. If we assume that AWS’s net income is $15 billion and slap a 35 multiple on that, we get to ~$500 billion, a third of Amazon’s market cap today.
I don’t know what slows down big tech’s growth, but I’m not so sure regulation would do it.
https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2021/05/04/the-biggest-threat-to-tech/
Found at Crossing Wall Street Blog http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/
5. Virtual Health Stock TDOC Health Covid Favorite…. Hit Above 300 to Start 2021….$156 Last.
DescriptionTeladoc Health, Inc. provides virtual healthcare services on a business-to-business basis in the United States and internationally. It covers various clinical conditions, including non-critical, episodic care, chronic, and complicated cases like cancer and congestive heart failure, as well as offers telehealth solutions, chronic condition management, expert medical services, behavioral health solutions, guidance and support, and platform and program services. It serves health employers, health plans, hospitals, health systems, and insurance and financial services companies. The company offers its products and services under the Teladoc, Livongo, Advance Medical, Best Doctors, BetterHelp, and HealthiestYou brands. The company was formerly known as Teladoc, Inc. and changed its name to Teladoc Health, Inc. in August 2018. Teladoc Health, Inc. was Incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Purchase, New York.
Corporate Governance https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TDOC/profile?p=TDOC
TDOC -50% from highs still way above pre-covid levels
6. Hedge funds had become ‘extreme’ sellers of stocks even before Yellen’s interest-rate remarks. Here’s why.
Critical information for the trading day
As a former Federal Reserve chair herself, now Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen should have known that her comments about the possibility of a need for an interest-rate hike would send markets into a tizzy, and by the end of the day she had walked back her remarks. No matter, as they’d brought about a classic rotation — the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.37% dived 1.9%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.29% actually rose slightly.
What was interesting was that the bond market didn’t follow suit. The 10-year yield on Treasury inflation-protected securities actually fell, to negative 0.81% — nearly a three-month low. It is noteworthy that the market for interest rates didn’t see anything terribly new or interesting in Yellen’s remarks about interest rates. The currency market wasn’t volatile. So maybe the stock market was vulnerable to selling.
Bank of America reports that, of its clients, hedge funds have been “extreme” sellers of stocks. The rolling four-week average flows for hedge funds were the lowest in the history of this series, which dates back to 2008 — and were three standard deviations below the average.
The hedge-fund selling was most concentrated in the communications-services and information-technology sectors, according to the BofA data — i.e., the tech winners that have thrived during the COVID-19 pandemic. Who’s buying? Retail clients were the only group to buy U.S. equities for the third week in a row and have been net buyers for 10 straight weeks, per Bank of America.
Why would hedge funds be getting nervous? Well, the April payrolls report on Friday is expected to be a seven-digit affair, after nearly topping a million in March. Even with Federal Reserve policy makers at pains to dismiss signs of surging inflation, they can’t ignore a rapidly healing labor market, so official data showing a surge in jobs creation will inevitably cause market discussion of when the central bank will pull back on its bond buying.
“As usual, it looks like the connection between legacy ‘duration proxy’ tech sector/’secular growth’ is the risk into the next two months of ‘peak’ U.S. economic data base-effect, with this week’s heavy U.S. data slate culminating in the CRITICAL Friday NFP, which is expected to be a WHOPPING +++ print and is set to dictate the timing of Fed ‘tapering’ socialization,” said Nomura Securities strategist Charlie McElligott.
How whopping? Steve Englander, head of global G-10 currency strategy at Standard Chartered, said a payrolls number in excess of 2 million would scare investors, and anything above 1.5 million would cause “uncertainty.” In other words, the risk is that by Friday, traders might be talking like Yellen did on Tuesday.
7. Muni Bonds See Longest Winning Streak Over Treasuries Since 2014
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/muni-bonds-see-longest-winning-173056847.html
8. Most Visited Websites on the Internet….Yahoo Still Top 10
9. Food Inflation at Supermarket
https://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2021/05/04/grocery-prices-up-steeply-from-same-time-last-year/
10. This Is The Best Time To Do Anything: 6 Powerful Secrets From Research
(Click here to read on the blog)
https://www.bakadesuyo.com/
| In 2007 the World Health Organization declared shift work a probable carcinogen. Yeah, you read that right: working at the wrong time can kill you. And cancer isn’t the only problem it causes. If horror movies don’t give you nightmares, the list of health problems associated with shift work will. So what’s the deal here? Shift work messes with your circadian rhythm. Now “circadian rhythm” might sound to some like iffy pseudoscience. Far from it. It has so much credibility that it has incredibility. Michael Rosbash won the Nobel Prize in medicine in 2017 for his work on it. There are no two ways about it: humans are diurnal. We’re designed to be awake when it’s light out and asleep when it’s dark. Sure, we can be nocturnal but we weren’t built for it and if you stay on that schedule too long, things get wonky. Well, anyway, good thing we’re not shift workers, right? Problem is, these days all of us basically are. From The Circadian Code:Professor Till Roenneberg, a researcher in Munich, surveyed more than 50,000 people in Europe and the United States and found that the majority of people either go to bed after midnight or wake up early with insufficient sleep. Similarly, people also follow different bedtime schedules on weekdays and weekends. This, combined with our bright screen use at night, means we’re all living like shift workers to some degree. And our bodies weren’t built for this. As we discussed in my recent post on exercise, the way we live our modern lives has “some problems” in the same way the Pacific Ocean has “some water.” Timing matters in life, even more than you think. We’re not talking about clever productivity hacks here; we’re talking about much more important stuff like your health. And biology doesn’t like to negotiate. For your body, “no” is a complete sentence. So what do we do? Luckily, experts have answers. I went down the research rabbit hole and patched together insights from a number of fancy-pants sources: Satchin Panda at the Salk Institute for Biological Studies, Daniel Lieberman at Harvard, and Andrew Huberman at Stanford. They’re gonna tell us how to get our circadian rhythm back on track for increased health, happiness and productivity. Let’s get to it… The Rhythm Is Gonna Get You Every cell and every organ in your body has a clock. And, if things are going right, they’re synced up with the master clock in your brain: the SCN or “suprachiasmatic nucleus.” Think of it like an old school heist movie: “Synchronize watches!“ Because if things aren’t in sync, your body is like a bad symphony. But instead of the bassoon and viola coming in later than they should, it’s your hormones that are out of whack, leading to problems with energy levels, hunger, stress and overall health. This is, as they say, “important.” Brass tacks: what is the most important factor when it comes to your circadian rhythm? Light. Our ancestors didn’t have a lot of control over light. When the sun rose and set was not a very democratic process. We, however, have unprecedented control over the amount and timing of the light we’re exposed to, leading to unprecedented problems. And this is why we’re all shift workers now. Okay, clearly not good. So what do you need to do tomorrow morning to fix this? Uh, back up, fella. Tomorrow is too late. Most of the work has to start the night before. From The Circadian Code:Your performance at any moment during the day is primarily determined by what you did the night before—when you ate and how much you slept—because that is what sets your clock, which then primes your body and brain. Sounds akin to: “All battles are won or lost before they are ever fought.” I guess Sun Tzu was a circadian expert. (To learn more about how you can lead a successful life, check out my bestselling book here.) So what do we need to do tonight to get everything back on track? Well, you’ve probably heard some rumblings about the evils of blue light. Actually, that’s only partially true… Blue Light Isn’t The Problem. All Light Is The Problem. Blue light sends the most powerful signal to your SCN that it is daytime, making it your worst enemy at night — but it’s not the only enemy. After dark, you want to reduce all light as much as possible. Light at night means less melatonin which means poor sleep which results in a foggy brain the next day. (Researchers have spent many sleepless nights studying this stuff.) Optimally, you want as little light as possible after 8PM. Sound unrealistic? Oh, it is. Hold on, it gets worse. I regret to inform you that as the day goes on, your retina actually becomes more sensitive to light. Indoor lights and screens that aren’t powerful enough to wake you up and set your clock in the morning are more than enough to screw your clock up at night. From The Circadian Code:A mere 8 lux—a level of brightness exceeded by most table lamps and about twice that of a night-light—has an effect, notes Steven Lockley, a sleep researcher at Harvard. No, I’m not saying you need to sit around during the evening with your home as dark as a Nietzchean abyss, skulking about like a swampgoblin. I am well aware that nothing short of an EMP blast is going to stop us from watching TV and doing internet ablutions on smartphones. We just need to limit light as much as we reasonably can, and there are tricks we can leverage to help. The cells in your eyes most relevant to timing are primarily at the bottom of your retina — so you want to reduce overhead lighting. Dim lights set low in a room are a good idea. (And candlelight does not trigger these cells much at all.) Use the “Nightshift” feature on Apple devices (or the equivalent) to reduce blue light. And if you want to go for the nuclear option, check out Drift TV, which gradually removes blue light from your television screen at night. I know what some people are thinking: “Oh, that won’t work for me. I’m a night owl.” Ummm, maybe not. I’ve been a card-carrying night owl my entire life. Everybody talks about the early bird, but I have always lived in fear of being the early worm. Telling me I should go to bed early makes me want to reach for something sharp. I thought it was just how I was wired. Guess what? I was wrong. Researcher Ken Wright Jr. at the University of Colorado, Boulder, did a study where he took night owls camping. No artificial light. Guess what happened? Yup. In a matter of days they stopped being night owls and were all in bed by 10PM. Maybe you’re an exception, but to my chagrin, I’m not. Keeping the house dark at night, through some sort of Blakean alchemy, has transformed this night owl into an early riser. You might want to give it a shot. (To learn how to make emotionally intelligent friendships, click here.) Okay, light is the number one thing when it comes to getting our clocks right. But it’s not the only thing… Your Stomach Is Not An All-Night Diner Eating is another signal that tells your body it’s daytime. Also, there’s plenty of research on how healthy “time-restricted eating” is and, yes, it looks like those intermittent fasting folks are on to something. Satchin Panda found that people who got all their calories in an 8-11 hour window and stopped eating 3 hours before bed were notably healthier. I know, I know — late night snacks are one of the things that makes life worth living. I agree. But if we sacrifice the unmitigated glory of munching after dark, what benefit do we get? Super productivity and focus. From The Circadian Code:Studies have shown that both modest fasting and exercise have a similar brain-boosting effect. Each of them can increase a chemical called brain-derived neurotropic factor (BDNF) that improves the connection between brain cells and improves brain function. When you have plenty of BDNF combined with a good night’s sleep, your brain is better prepared for performing complex tasks, staying focused, and being productive, so you can complete the same amount of work in less time. Eating a late-night meal negatively affects your ability to pay attention the next day. (To learn the two-word morning ritual that will make you happy all day, click here.) Okay, everybody says getting enough sleep is important. Definitely true. But when it comes to your circadian rhythm, it’s not just about the amount… Be Consistent You need around seven hours of sleep. More for kids, less for older folks. Sleeping notably less — or more — than seven hours is associated with a shorter lifespan. From Exercised:…numerous studies using better data and sophisticated methods to correct for factors like age, illness, and income have confirmed that people who sleep about seven hours tend to live longer than those who sleep more or less. In no study is eight hours optimal, and in most of the studies people who got more than seven hours had shorter life spans than those who got less than seven hours (an unresolved issue, however, is whether it would be beneficial for long sleepers to reduce their sleep time). But the thing that very rarely gets talked about is consistency. It’s huge. Studies show kids that sleep a consistent amount every night get better grades. Timing and consistency is a good idea across the board. Having a regular schedule for when you wake up, when you have your first and last meal, when you dim the lights, and when you go to sleep is a powerful combo. Satchin Panda says if any of these factors shift by two hours over the course of a week, it’s an issue. If they all do, that’s a big issue. (To learn how to live a long awesome life, click here.) Okay, we have our evenings down. But what’s important when you wake up in the morning? Well, turns out what you do then is the most important factor of them all… The Most Important Event Of The Day Satchin Panda’s words, not mine: “When (and how) you wake up is the most important event of the day.” And the key event here is getting bright light in your eyes early to set your master clock. If your only outdoor activity is collecting Amazon packages from your doorstep and you tend to get as much morning light as a mole rat, take note. Live like a Morlock and you’re going to be less chipper, less energetic and the word “metastatic” may be in your future. From The Circadian Code:In modern times, an average person spends more than 87 percent of their time indoors; we average only 2½ hours outdoors, half of which is often after sunset. Our indoor light environment may be disrupting our circadian rhythm and compromising our mood. So if you forget everything else I have written here, remember this: Right after you wake up, go outside and get sunlight into your eyeballs. Yes, you need to go outside. Remember, your retinas are more sensitive at night, meaning they are less sensitive in the morning. You need ~100,000 lux before 9AM. Don’t worry, that only takes about 2-10 minutes depending on how bright it is outside. But digital screens are only 500-1000 lux and that just ain’t enough photons. It’s important to get this as early as possible to set your clock properly. The relevant cells in your eyes are awfully particular. They respond best to light at “low solar angle.” So once the sun is overhead, it’s not the same. Blue light in the morning is a good thing, so appreciate that morning sky. No, do not stare directly into the sun. The negative effects of this are obvious: you will be blind and unable to read my future blog posts. (To learn the 4 harsh truths that will make you a better person, click here.) So your clock is set. Once you’re firing on all chronological cylinders, when will you be sharpest and most productive during the day? Best Time For Brain Work You’ll be sharpest between 10AM and 3PM. This is when you want to do your thinky work. From The Circadian Code:Your optimal brain function is highest between 10:00 a.m. and 3:00 p.m.; that’s when you should notice that your best work or learning is done. Studies have shown that this is the window during which we are in the right frame of mind for making good decisions, solving multifaceted problems, and navigating complicated social situations. Still not feeling awake? Kinda cranky? You may need even more early sunlight. Indoor light isn’t enough to get your brain up to top speed during the day (but it sure is enough to screw you up at night.) From The Circadian Code:You need at least 1 hour of daylight exposure—being outside, driving in your car, sitting by a window where you can soak up at least 1,000 lux of light—to reduce sleepiness, synchronize your clock, perk up your mood, and stay happy and productive throughout the day. (To learn how to stop being lazy and get more done, click here.) What about when sunlight isn’t enough? Still tired throughout the day? Well, there’s another powerful influence on your circadian rhythm that can help… Exercising Keeps The Rhythm Exercise has a huge effect on how well you sleep at night and how energetic you feel the next day. From Exercised:One survey of more than twenty-six hundred Americans of all ages that controlled for factors like weight, age, health status, smoking, and depression found that those who regularly engaged in at least 150 minutes of moderate to vigorous activity a week not only reported a 65 percent improvement in sleep quality but also were less likely to feel overly sleepy during the day. The most important thing about exercise is just to do it at all. That said, timing still helps. Doing it early in the day improves energy levels and mood but the optimal time is between 3PM and dinner. So, if you can swing it, try to work out between finishing work and eating your final meal. An intense workout later at night can spike cortisol and mess with sleep, but if you can’t hit the gym earlier, there’s a hack that can help. Eating and exercising primarily alter circadian rhythm by increasing body temperature, so if you do either one late but still want a good night’s sleep, the trick is to take a shower before hitting the sack. This will help your body cool down and get ready for beddy-bye. (For more on how to motivate yourself to exercise, click here.) Okay, we’ve covered a lot. No longer can anyone say you don’t have rhythm. Let’s round everything up and learn the secret to how you can enjoy (a little) extra light and screen time at night without wreaking havoc… Sum Up Timing matters. Here’s what to do:It’s not just blue light, it’s all light: Biology says when the sun goes down, you should too. Do the next best thing: kill overhead lights and dim everything else.Your stomach is not an all-night diner: You want to be eating all your calories in less than half the day and none 3 hours before bed. Apparently, starving in the dark is good for you.Be consistent: Sleeping in on the weekend means you’re doing it wrong during the week. Your physiology does not like an unpredictable schedule and it will seek vengeance.The most important event of the day: Wake up, go outside, and get many many photons into your eyeballs.Best time for brain work: 10AM to 3PM. And this reformed-night-owl writer now finds that’s when I really have a “way with words.” After 3PM, well, uh… not have way.Exercise keeps the rhythm: Best time is after work but before dinner. If you have to work out late, use the shower trick.Yes, you really should do this every day. I don’t make the rules. The only part of life where you get time off for good behavior is prison. That said, there is a trick for sneaking in a little extra screen time in the evening without causing problems. Stanford University professor Andrew Huberman says getting outside for 2-10 minutes around sunset can help keep your internal clock calibrated. A little more of that low solar angle magic light tells your SCN “must be nighttime” and can help defend against the negatives of evening light. Yes, medical science insists you enjoy more sunsets. No doubt, in the modern world, keeping your circadian rhythm humming properly can be challenging. But it’s worth it to feel more energized and happy during the day, to sleep better at night and give yourself a much better shot at long term health. We’re often our own worst enemy, and that also means we’re our own worst victim. Timing is everything in life but we’re often too focused on the timing of external things when the really important stuff is internal. So synchronize watches. This heist is an inside job. |
Disclosure
Indices that may be included herein are unmanaged indices and one cannot directly invest in an index. Index returns do not reflect the impact of any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. The index information included herein is for illustrative purposes only.
Material for market review represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results.
Material compiled by Lansing Street Advisors is based on publicly available data at the time of compilation. Lansing Street Advisors makes no warranties or representation of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to the use such data.
To the extent that content includes references to securities, those references do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or hold such security as information is provided for educational purposes only. Articles should not be considered investment advice and the information contain within should not be relied upon in assessing whether or not to invest in any securities or asset classes mentioned. Articles have been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Securities discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Please keep in mind that a company’s past financial performance, including the performance of its share price, does not guarantee future results.
Lansing Street Advisors is a registered investment adviser with the State of Pennsylvania..
Topley’s Top 10 – May 4, 2021
1. Personal incomes in the US rose 29% over the last year, the highest increase in history.
Charlie Bilel, @charliebilello
Topley’s Top 10 – May 3, 2021
1..One in Four Shares in $12 Billion Bond ETF Are Now Sold ShortBy Katherine Greifel
Topley’s Top 10 – April 30, 2021
1. Least Amount of Back to Back Down Days in 70 Years.
Irrelevant Investor-Michael Batnick
We just lived through a year with the least amount of back-to-back down days (going back to 1950).
Topley’s Top 10 – April 29, 2021
1. Uranium ETF Bottomed at $7 During Covid….$19 Last.
URA Chart—50day blue line thru 200day red line to upside….Bars show the increase in volume on rally.
Topley’s Top 10 – April 28, 2021
1. Mention of Inflation of Earnings Calls have Tripled.
Exhibit A: the chart below showing the number of mentions of “inflation” during earnings calls which exploded, more than tripling YoY per company so far, the and the biggest jump in history since BofA started keeping records in 2004.
Topley’s Top 10 – April 27, 2021
Topley’s Top 10 – April 26, 2021
1. No Correlation Between Cap Gains Rate and Stock Returns
Virtually no relationship between changes in capital gains tax rate & S&P 500 returns in year of change … last time cap gains went up (in 2013), S&P 500 had stellar year (up 30%)
Topley’s Top 10 – April 23, 2021
Topley’s Top 10 – April 22, 2021
Topley’s Top 10 – April 21, 2021
Topley’s Top 10 – April 20, 2021
Topley’s Top 10 – April 19, 2021
Topley’s Top 10 – April 16, 2021
1. Maybe the Most Stunning Stat I’ve Seen in 25 Years in Business…More Inflows in Last 5 Months than Last 12 Years
Topley’s Top 10 – April 15, 2021
1. Bitcoin to Dollar Chart…Bitcoin +116% YTD.
2. But Ether Tops the Charts vs. Bitcoin
Advisor Perspectives-We have also created an index in order to chart these together given their very different pricing history. Notice that Ether tops the chart – the price of an ether has changed the most out of all three cryptocurrencies.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/04/14/cryptocurrencies-through-4-13
3. S&P Equal Weighted +61% vs. Cap Weighted 50% 1 Year Returns.
Equal Weighted S&P Outperforming by large margin over cap weighted coming out of Covid
4. Coinbase Pricing from A-Shares to IPO
Andreessen Horowitz and Union Square are the two largest outside investors in Coinbase.
Here’s who just got rich from the Coinbase debut-Ari Levy@LEVYNEWS https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/14/coinbase-who-gets-rich.html
5. Big Banks Catching Regional Bank Index YTD
The KBW Regional Banking Index has outperformed the KBW Bank Index year to date, although the latter – which represents 24 of the largest U.S. banks – has beaten the index of smaller institutions over the last month.
Graphic: KBW Bank index vs Regional banks
Wall Street ends mixed despite bumper big-bank earningsBy Shivani Kumaresan, Shreyashi Sanyal, David French
6. Wage Inflation? CFO Survey
Sustained inflation gains will require stronger wage growth. The latest Evercore ISI survey suggests that it’s a possibility.
Source: Evercore ISI
THE DAILY SHOT https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-april-14th-2021/
7. CPI Month Over Month Print Highest Since 2006
Zero Hedge Investors increasingly convinced of Fed inflation tolerance
March CPI inflation came in like a lion and went out like a lamb, all in a day. The 0.34% m/m print on core inflation is the highest since 2006, other than July and August 2020, which were the bounce back from anomalously low readings during the height of the COVID-19 shutdowns
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-has-convinced-investors-it-will-tolerate-higher-inflation
8. Covid Stimulus Bigger Than Roosevelt New Deal
Jim Ried DB-The post-Covid fiscal stimulus in the US has been remarkable and is likely to continue to be given Biden’s infrastructure bill. Outside of wars, the only comparable interventions were in 2008 and in the 1930s with FDR’s new deal. However, how do these three extraordinary interventions compare?
DB’s Alan Ruskin produced this table last night with some relevant facts (see full piece here). Note that these numbers don’t yet include the infrastructure package.
Even without the proposed infrastructure package, the 2020/21 COVID cumulative response is extraordinary at over 5 times the size of the FDR 1930’s New Deal in 2020 dollars, and double the New Deal on a per capita basis. However, because GDP was so much smaller in the 1930s, the New Deal ultimately totaled some 40% of GDP, close to double the Trump and Biden COVID packages. The New Deal was spread out over a 6+ year period though.
In terms of output gaps, the 1930s saw one 10 times larger than the current c.3%. So relative to the respective output gaps, the fiscal injections today look much more aggressive than that seen nearly 90 years ago. Equity markets are also in a completely different place today (US financial conditions yesterday hit 14-year highs) and we would also highlight that US money supply growth is running at around +27% YoY currently whereas it had sharply declined in the 1930s.
Clearly, there are differences which Alan’s piece touches on but overall we think the post-covid US fiscal response is more remarkable than FDR’s New Deal in size and scale and that’s before the infrastructure plan. Given this, there still have to be huge questions and uncertainty over future inflation.
9. Harvard Hits 3% Acceptance Rate
| One of the hardest universities to get into, Harvard, just got even harder. Harvard College has just released its admission statistics for the class of 2025, which reveals that just 1,968 applicants have been offered places, from a pool of more than 57,000 — which works out to an acceptance rate of just 3.4%. That’s the lowest acceptance rate in Harvard’s history. The increase in applications is partly down to the removal of mandatory standardized testing (the SAT and ACT). The Wall Street Journal reports that over 1,600 four-year colleges did not require applicants to submit SAT or ACT scores, leading to an increase in applications. While the 2020 numbers might be exaggerated because of the testing changes, it’s certainly true that acceptance rates at highly-selective institutions have been going down. Rightly or wrongly a (good) college or university education has become a pre-requisite for many jobs and industries, and competition for places has only become more intense — and a lot more expensive. |
10. How Psychologists Define Intelligence.
Verywell / JR Bee
While intelligence is one of the most talked about subjects in psychology, there is no standard definition of what exactly constitutes intelligence. Some researchers have suggested that intelligence is a single, general ability. Others believe that intelligence encompasses a range of aptitudes, skills, and talents.
What Is Intelligence?
Intelligence has been a controversial topic throughout psychology’s history. Despite the substantial interest in the subject, there is still considerable disagreement about what components makeup intelligence. In addition to questions of exactly how to define intelligence, the debate continues today about whether accurate measurements are even possible.https://912dec4b9314a9b2aeaf4bb264bb4148.safeframe.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-38/html/container.html
At various points throughout recent history, researchers have proposed some different definitions of intelligence. While these definitions can vary considerably from one theorist to the next, current conceptualizations tend to suggest that intelligence is the ability to:
- Learn from experience:The acquisition, retention, and use of knowledge is an important component of intelligence.
- Recognize problems: To put knowledge to use, people must be able to identify possible problems in the environment that need to be addressed.
- Solve problems:People must then be able to take what they have learned to come up with a useful solution to a problem they have noticed in the world around them.1
Intelligence involves some different mental abilities including logic, reasoning, problem-solving, and planning. While the subject of intelligence is one of the largest and most heavily researched, it is also one of the topics that generate the greatest controversy.
While psychologists often disagree about the definition and causes of intelligence, research on intelligence plays a significant role in many areas. These areas include decisions regarding how much funding should be given to educational programs, the use of testing to screen job applicants, and the use of testing to identify children who need additional academic help.https://912dec4b9314a9b2aeaf4bb264bb4148.safeframe.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-38/html/container.html
Brief History of Intelligence
The term “intelligence quotient,” or IQ, was first coined in the early 20th century by a German psychologist named William Stern. Psychologist Alfred Binet developed the very first intelligence tests to help the French government identify schoolchildren who needed extra academic assistance. Binet was the first to introduce the concept of mental age or a set of abilities that children of a certain age possess.2
Since that time, intelligence testing has emerged as a widely used tool that has led to developing many other tests of skill and aptitude. However, it continues to spur debate and controversy over the use of such testing, cultural biases that may be involved, influences on intelligence, and even the very way we define intelligence.
Theories of Intelligence
Different researchers have proposed a variety of theories to explain the nature of intelligence. Here are some of the major theories of intelligence that have emerged during the last 100 years.https://912dec4b9314a9b2aeaf4bb264bb4148.safeframe.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-38/html/container.html
General Intelligence
British psychologist Charles Spearman (1863–1945) described a concept he referred to as general intelligence or the g factor. After using a technique known as factor analysis to examine some mental aptitude tests, Spearman concluded that scores on these tests were remarkably similar.https://912dec4b9314a9b2aeaf4bb264bb4148.safeframe.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-38/html/container.html
People who performed well on one cognitive test tended to perform well on other tests, while those who scored badly on one test tended to score badly on others. He concluded that intelligence is a general cognitive ability that can be measured and numerically expressed.3
Primary Mental Abilities
Psychologist Louis L.Thurstone (1887–1955) offered a differing theory of intelligence. Instead of viewing intelligence as a single, general ability, Thurstone’s theory focused on seven different primary mental abilities.4
- Associative memory: The ability to memorize and recall
- Numerical ability: The ability to solve arithmetic problems
- Perceptual speed: The ability to see differences and similarities among objects
- Reasoning: The ability to find rules
- Spatial visualization: The ability to visualize relationships
- Verbal comprehension: The ability to define and understand words
- Word fluency: The ability to produce words rapidly
Theory of Multiple Intelligences
One of the more recent ideas to emerge is Howard Gardner‘s theory of multiple intelligences. Gardner proposed that the traditional idea of intelligence, based on IQ testing, did not fully and accurately depict a person’s abilities. His theory proposed eight different intelligences based on skills and abilities that are valued in different cultures:5
- Bodily-kinesthetic intelligence: The ability to control your body movements and to handle objects skillfully
- Interpersonal intelligence: The capacity to detect and respond appropriately to the moods, motivations, and desires of others
- Intrapersonal intelligence: The capacity to be self-aware and in tune with inner feelings, values, beliefs, and thinking processes
- Logical-mathematical intelligence: The ability to think conceptually and abstractly, and the capacity to discern logically or numerical patterns
- Musical intelligence: The ability to produce and appreciate rhythm, pitch, and timbre
- Naturalistic intelligence: The ability to recognize and categorize animals, plants, and other objects in nature
- Verbal-linguistic intelligence: Well-developed verbal skills and sensitivity to the sounds, meanings, and rhythms of words
- Visual-spatial intelligence: The capacity to think in images and pictures, to visualize accurately and abstractly
What Kind of Intelligence Do You Have?
Triarchic Theory of Intelligence
Psychologist Robert Sternberg defined intelligence as “mental activity directed toward purposive adaptation to, selection, and shaping of real-world environments relevant to one’s life.”
While he agreed with Gardner that intelligence is much broader than a single, general ability, he suggested that some of Gardner’s types of intelligence are better viewed as individual talents. Sternberg proposed what he referred to as “successful intelligence,” which involves three different factors:6
- Analytical intelligence:Your ability to evaluate information and solve problems
- Creative intelligence: Your ability to come up with new ideas
- Practical intelligence: Your ability to adapt to a changing environment
Questions About Intelligence Testing
In order to gain a deeper understanding of intelligence and the tests developed to measure this concept, it’s important to understand the history of intelligence testing, the research that has been conducted, and the findings that have emerged.
Major questions about intelligence and IQ testing still include:
- Are intelligence tests biased?
- Is intelligence a single ability, or does it involve an assortment of multiple skills and abilities?
- Is intelligence inherited, or does the environment play a larger role?
- What do intelligence scores predict, if anything?
To explore these questions, psychologists have conducted a considerable amount of research on the nature, influences, and effects of intelligence.7
A Word From Verywell
While there has been considerable debate over the exact nature of intelligence, no definitive conceptualization has emerged. Today, psychologists often account for the many theoretical viewpoints when discussing intelligence and acknowledge that this debate is ongoing.
https://www.verywellmind.com/theories-of-intelligence-2795035
Lansing Street Advisors is a registered investment adviser with the State of Pennsylvania..
To the extent that content includes references to securities, those references do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or hold such security as information is provided for educational purposes only. Articles should not be considered investment advice and the information contain within should not be relied upon in assessing whether or not to invest in any securities or asset classes mentioned. Articles have been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Securities discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Please keep in mind that a company’s past financial performance, including the performance of its share price, does not guarantee future results.
Material compiled by Lansing Street Advisors is based on publicly available data at the time of compilation. Lansing Street Advisors makes no warranties or representation of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to the use such data.
Material for market review represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results.
Indices that may be included herein are unmanaged indices and one cannot directly invest in an index. Index returns do not reflect the impact of any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. The index information included herein is for illustrative purposes only.
Topley’s Top 10 – April 14, 2021
Topley’s Top 10 – April 13, 2021
1. S&P Profit Estimates
Earnings Kicks off this week – The 20 S&P 500 companies that reported earnings as of Thursday topped analyst estimates by 11% on average. That is about 1.5 times the average for those companies over the last three years and about triple the longer-term average – JPMorgan Chase is due to report Wednesday, and results from other big banks are also due during the week.
Dave Lutz at Jones Trading
Continue readingTopley’s Top 10 – April 12, 2021
1. Big $40 million options trade bets on near-term stock market tumble
By Reuters Staff- A MASSIVE TRADE IN THE U.S. OPTIONS MARKET ON THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE BETTING THAT THE CALM ENVELOPING U.S. STOCKS IN RECENT WEEKS WILL GIVE WAY TO A BIG RISE IN VOLATILITY OVER THE NEXT THREE MONTHS.
One or more traders laid out a roughly $40 million bet that the Cboe Volatility Index – often called Wall Street’s fear gauge – will break above the 25 level and rise towards 40 by mid-July, trading data showed Thursday.
The VIX closed at 16.95 on Thursday, its lowest close since February 20, 2020, just before the coronavirus pandemic spooked investors and roiled global financial marketSome 200,000 of the VIX July 25 – 40 call spread traded over the course of two hours on Thursday, starting at 10 a.m. The trades made up about a third of the average daily trading volume in VIX options, according to Trade Alert.
Continue readingTopley’s Top 10 – April 7, 2021
1. Value and Growth History of 4 Cycles.
A Wealth of Common Sense Blog
https://twitter.com/awealthofcs
2. Q1 2021 Earnings Estimate Growth Year Over Year
Energy, Financials and Materials Lead Earnings Growth Estimates.
3. Factor Grid 2008 Thru Q1 2021
2008-2020 Growth Huge Leadership.
4. LQD Corporate Bond ETF Worse Month of Outflows in 20 Year History
Biggest Credit ETF Bleeds $3.6 Billion in Worst-Ever Month-by Katie Greifeld, 4/1/21
After a blowout 2020 for corporate debt, exchange-traded fund investors are quickly souring on those bonds.
The world’s largest credit ETF notched its worst month of outflows since it began trading about two decades ago. Traders pulled roughly $3.6 billion from the iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (ticker LQD) in March, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That exodus came as the $42 billion fund suffered its biggest quarterly rout in 12 years.
LQD -5% YTD bouncing off bottom
5. Best 1-month performers are funds involved with construction, manufacturing, or production – or the raw materials
| ETF | ONE-MONTH RETURN |
| Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF BDRY, -3.51% | 30.9% |
| VanEck Vectors Steel ETF SLX, -0.95% | 14.9% |
| Invesco S&P SmallCap Value with Momentum ETF XSVM, -0.77% | 13.9% |
| SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF XHB, +0.87% | 13.5% |
| Pacer US Cash Cows 100 ETF COWZ, +0.02% | 13.2% |
| iShares US Home Construction ETF ITB, +0.68% | 12.9% |
| SPDR S&P Retail ETF XRT, +0.36% | 12.5% |
| Invesco S&P SmallCap 600 Revenue ETF RWJ, -0.22% | 12% |
| First Trust Utilities AlphaDEX Fund FXU, +0.30% | 11.8% |
| Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Utilities ETF RYU, +0.39% | 11.6% |
| Source: Refinitiv Lipper |
Safe haven plays still popular amid rotation into cyclical stocks, March fund flows show
6. XLF Financials ETF Chart
XLF-Financials ETF 50 week moving average about to cross 200 week moving average first time since 2012
Still, Maley said the longer-term setup looks incredibly strong for the financials.
“The 50-week moving average is getting very close to the 200-week moving average. In other words, it’s getting very close to a golden cross on a weekly basis. Golden crosses tend to be bullish on a daily basis on the charts, but when you get it on a weekly basis, it’s even more so. In fact we haven’t seen one of those crosses since 2012,” said Maley.
“That time, we’d also seen a big rally, and when the golden cross took place, it extended to a much further rally over the next several years,” Maley added.
A golden cross is formed when a 50-period moving average moves above the 200-period. It is a bullish formation that suggests an accelerating trend to the upside.
From June 2012 to a peak in August 2015, the XLF nearly doubled in price. Maley said he’d be looking to buy the group on weakness, while keeping an eye on whether a golden cross is seen in the charts.
Financial stocks set up for a bullish pattern not seen in nearly a decade, according to chart
7. Change in Migration Major Metro Area Gainers and Losers.
Tierra Partners, @tierrapartners
From CBRE migration patterns 2019 vs 2020 for major MSAs
https://twitter.com/tierrapartners
8. The Share of Home Purchase Applications for Second Homes hits 14%
Wolf Street
The share of purchase mortgage applications in February for second homes and investment properties has soared to 14.1% of total purchase mortgage applications, according to data by the Mortgage Bankers Association, cited and charted by the Wall Street Journal:
9. Millennials and Gen Z Sources of Investing Information
Magnify Money Blog
Survey: Nearly 60% of Young Investors Are Collaborating – MagnifyMoney
10. 7 Myths About Optimism and Pessimism
Defensive pessimism can help to manage anxiety and provide a sense of control.
SUMMARY
· Past research has demonstrated that optimism can benefit happiness, relationships, and health.
· But defensive pessimism—setting low expectations and considering worst-case scenarios—can help reduce anxiety.
· Defensive pessimism is most useful when negative outcomes are important to consider and when they can be prevented.
Optimism is among the most celebrated human qualities. Many studies have shown that optimists tend to fare better in life than their pessimistic friends—at least when it comes to physical and mental health, resilience, relationships, career, pain management, and even longevity. Being of good cheer and expecting the best, as science and cultural dogmas have us believe, will lead to the best.
But is it all that straightforward? Is optimism always adaptive, and is there really nothing good about being a pessimist?
Psychologist Julie Norem’s research suggests otherwise.
For almost four decades, Dr. Norem has been studying the phenomenon of defensive pessimism—the cognitive strategy of setting low expectations and considering worst-case scenarios of future events. It turns out, the habit of not getting your hopes high can help with managing anxiety and gaining a sense of control.
In her latest research, Dr. Norem found that the use of defensive pessimism was correlated with taking more precautions during the Covid-19 pandemic (e.g., hand-washing, mask-wearing, social distancing), and less risky behaviors (e.g., meeting inside with people you don’t live with). “Without a doubt, defensive pessimists are more anxious than their optimistic counterparts,” explains Dr. Norem, “but they also actively make more effort to manage their risk.”
One of the biggest surprises from Dr. Norem’s research is the public’s hesitation towards the mere idea of there being something positive about pessimism. Yet, perhaps ironically, when people discover that they are defensive pessimists, many report feeling relief and validation.
Here is Dr. Norem, in her own words, on 7 myths about optimism and pessimism, 2 examples when defensive pessimism is most effective, and 2 ways to foster optimism.
1. One is either an optimist or a pessimist.
False. People’s perspectives vary from domain to domain. For example, you can be optimistic about your social life and pessimistic about your work. Furthermore, we can consider optimism-pessimism as a tendency to expect good or bad things (trait level); or as how prone people are to experience positive-negative affect (temperamental level).
These are tendencies—they are not deterministic of specific expectations in specific situations. While these tendencies can be influenced by genetics, they merely point us in a certain direction. We still have freedom to move.
2. Optimists are born, not made.
This myth is too all-encompassing to be true. While we don’t have much evidence that we can get rid of our tendencies to experience negative affect, cognitive therapy studies suggest that people can learn to revise how they look at situations. It’s not easy, but it’s possible.
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3. Being an optimist is always better than being a pessimist.
False. Research from Japan finds that defensive pessimists do better than optimists in terms of affect and actual performance. Studies from the U.S. show that, on average, defensive pessimists do as well as optimists. Defensive pessimists have more negative affect, but not necessarily less positive affect.
In the U.S., the commonly held belief is that when it comes to positive affect, the more, the better. If you are feeling negative emotions, you are often motivated to get rid of them, because it makes you feel like you are failing at something. In other cultures, including Japan, the ideal affective life is more balanced. A well-adjusted person recognizes that there are negatives and positives in most things in life and allows herself to experience both.
4. Pessimists are more likely to get depressed than optimists.
True—in terms of general traits, pessimists are more at risk of depression. However, the overall picture is more complicated. Research shows that defensive pessimists are actually less likely to get depressed than other pessimists, and not significantly more likely than optimists. What increases the risk of depression is when pessimism is combined with hopelessness. That is, when pessimists don’t feel like they have any control over their circumstances.
Here, the distinction between defensive pessimism and fatalistic pessimism is important. Defensive pessimists are oriented towards making things better in their lives or getting things done. Fatalistic pessimists, on the other hand, might have the same underlying tendency to experience negative emotions, but instead of actively looking for what they could do in the world, they assume that they are fated to be the way they are and that there is no hope. That’s the pathway that tends to lead to depression.
5. Optimism is a key ingredient in human flourishing, while pessimism is a key impediment to well-being.
This myth is overly simplified and reductionistic. If you define flourishing primarily in terms of positive emotions, optimism indeed makes it much more likely for you to experience positive emotions. But since that is correlated with the temperamental tendency to experience positive emotions, it’s not clear what comes first. It’s also unclear that what relates positive emotions to optimism is relevant to people who aren’t optimistic—it’s not like people can just pretend to be optimistic and things will necessarily get better for them.
6. Pessimists can also be happy.
True. The value that people place on happiness as an outcome varies enormously. Defensive pessimists certainly have many moments of happiness and enjoy many things in their lives. But that’s not where their focus is. Instead, they want to not have regrets and work towards their goals. They want to feel as if they did their best in a given situation and they want to manage their anxiety so it doesn’t interfere with their goals.
Moreover, defensive pessimists are able to tolerate negative emotions. For many people, once they recognize that they are anxious, their primary goal becomes to get rid of anxiety and to feel happy. The strength of defensive pessimists lies in their ability to say, “I recognize that I feel anxious. I know what to do with this anxiety and I’m not going to let it get in my way.” It’s different than denying it or trying to suppress or avoid it.
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/between-cultures/202104/7-myths-about-optimism-and-pessimism
Lansing Street Advisors is a registered investment adviser with the State of Pennsylvania..
To the extent that content includes references to securities, those references do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or hold such security as information is provided for educational purposes only. Articles should not be considered investment advice and the information contain within should not be relied upon in assessing whether or not to invest in any securities or asset classes mentioned. Articles have been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Securities discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Please keep in mind that a company’s past financial performance, including the performance of its share price, does not guarantee future results.
Material compiled by Lansing Street Advisors is based on publicly available data at the time of compilation. Lansing Street Advisors makes no warranties or representation of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to the use such data.
Material for market review represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results.
Indices that may be included herein are unmanaged indices and one cannot directly invest in an index. Index returns do not reflect the impact of any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. The index information included herein is for illustrative purposes only.
Topley’s Top 10 – April 6, 2021
1.Amazon was worth $159B in 2015 before AWS (cloud services) Disclosure Now $1 Trillion +
Amazon Long-Term Chart
Topley’s Top 10 – April 5, 2021
1. Q1 Asset Class Performance Summary-Bespoke Investment Group
https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2021/04/033121-ETF-MatrixQ11.png
Continue readingTopley’s Top 10 – March 30, 2021
1. We Work Going SPAC….They Raised $16B En Route to $47B Valuation…….Back Down to $8B Valuation.
From Packy McCormick Not Boring Blog
2. Public Pensions Heavily Overweight Equites.
Equities: Public pensions are heavily overweight equities
Source: Deutsche Bank Research
Rates: The long-bond selloff looks overextended.
Source: Hugo Ste-Marie, Portfolio & Quantitative Strategy Global Equity Research, Scotia Capital
The Daily Shot
https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-march-25th-2021/
3. Global Syndicated Loan Market Leaders
Global Syndicated Loans
Source: Refinitiv, Global Syndicated Loans Review
https://www.mizuhogroup.com/bank/what-we-do/syndicated_finance
4. Annual Bankruptcy Filings Fall 29.7 Percent During Covid.
Business and Non-Business Bankruptcies Fall as the U.S. Government becomes buyer of last resort.
https://www.uscourts.gov/news/2021/01/28/annual-bankruptcy-filings-fall-297-percent
5. Used Car Prices Skyrocket
Wolf Street –Need a used pickup truck? Forget it. Or pay out of your nose for it. Prices across the major categories have exploded – but amid these price spikes, pickup truck prices stand out with a stunning bang-your-head-against-the-wall price spike of 43%.
Maybe buy a new truck instead? Well, in theory. In reality, inventories of new pickups are tight and are now also tangled up in semiconductor shortages that have caused assembly plants to cut production.
But even in categories that Americans have long pooh-poohed and spurned, auction prices soared, up 15.9% for mid-sized cars up by 10.5% for compact cars:
What’s Behind the Stunning Spike in Used Vehicle Auction Prices? By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
6. Clean Energy Jobs Outpace Fuel Jobs Since by the End of 2019 by a Ratio of 3 to 1.
As it is, clean energy jobs by the end of 2019 were already outpacing fossil fuel jobs by a ratio of nearly 3 to 1 (3.36 million to 1.19 million), while clean energy employment grew at a 10.4% pace between 2015 and 2019, well ahead of the 6.1% growth in total employment. And the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics forecasts two of the top three fastest -growing occupations from 2019 to 2029 will be wind turbine service technicians and solar panel installers.
A Successful Green New Deal Will Need Private Partnersby Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 3/26/21
https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2020/Sep/IRENA_RE_Jobs_2020.pdf
7. Container Ship Operators Are on a Tear as Freight Rates Skyrocket-
Advisor Perspectives BLOG
by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, 3/26/21
For the past 20 years, the Port of Los Angeles has been the busiest seaport in the Western Hemisphere, responsible for exporting commodities such as soybeans and raw cotton and importing everything from furniture to electronics. In 2020, container volume reached 9.2 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs), with total cargo handled valued at $259 billion.
Last month, the Port of L.A. saw an incredible 47% increase in container traffic compared to February 2020, representing the strongest February in its 114-year history. The port processed nearly 800,000 TEUs during the month, marking the seventh straight month of year-over-year growth.
8. Record Number of Homes Selling Above Asking Price
Beware, home buyers: A record number of homes are selling above their asking price-By
The competition in the real-estate market now underscores the need to build more homes, Fairweather argued. “America needs an audacious goal to increase the housing supply, given the U.S. is short 2.5 million homes,” she said. “It may be expensive to build millions of homes, but ignoring the problem would only cause housing to become more unaffordable and worsen housing insecurity.”
Redfin’s research echoed the findings of other real-estate economists. A recent report from Realtor.com found that the total inventory of active home listings was down 52% from a year ago.
9. China Belt and Road Initiative Now 139 Countries.
Countries in China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Who’s In And Who’s Out
Blog Post by David Sacks
Jennifer Hillman and David Sacks are codirectors of the CFR-sponsored Independent Task Force report on a U.S. Response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which is co-chaired by Jacob J. Lew and Gary Roughead.
In the fall of 2013, shortly after assuming power, Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed building a land-based “Silk Road Economic Belt,” extending from China to Central and South Asia, the Middle East, and Europe, and a sea-based “21st Century Maritime Silk Road,” connecting China to Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe via major sea lanes.Belt and Road Initiative
Together, these came to form the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), still known officially in Chinese as “One Belt, One Road,” which quickly became Xi’s signature foreign policy undertaking. Under BRI, Chinese banks and companies seek to fund and build roads, power plants, ports, railways, 5G networks, and fiber-optic cables around the world.
BRI has a wide reach, but which countries are participants? The answer is surprisingly hard to determine, since China is opaque about the exact contours of BRI and there are different levels of participation in the initiative. But our CFR Independent Task Force report outlines what we were able to discover about the participating countries in BRI.
https://www.cfr.org/blog/countries-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-whos-and-whos-out
10. Heat, Cold, Light and What to Skip to Keep Your Immune System Strong
The right amount of hormesis can help to bulletproof your body and mind
Everyone knows that much the world has been on lockdown for the last several months, first with the 2-month goal of “flattening the curve,” but now it’s morphed into “lockdown until there’s a vaccine.”
Whether a functional and safe vaccine emerges or not, you are most likely going to be dealing with this virus, and the thousands of others you deal with every winter, for the long term. If you don’t believe me, here are a few other notable people who agree:
- David Heymann, who led the WHO’s infection’s disease unit during the 2002 SARS outbreak, says, “We have to learn to live with the pandemic…this will become endemic.” He also says, “We shouldn’t just be trying to suppress this virus out of existence or trying to suppress it to a level that’s unrealistic. We have to be able to suppress it to a level where it causes minimum damage while at the same time entering a country and becoming endemic.”
- Even Dr. Fauci says that vaccines won’t eradicate COVID.
- The UK’s chief scientific advisor, Patrik Vallance, says London won’t be able to stop it from becoming endemic even with a vaccine.
If that sounds scary, know that there are four other coronavirus strains that are endemic and cause many cases of the common cold. There are strategies available to manage your own biology that make you more resilient and less susceptible to all kinds of infections. I used to be the guy who got sick constantly, but now it’s exceedingly rare.
Knowing how to upgrade your immune system so you can get sick less is important because the psychological impact of coronavirus could be worse than COVID-19 itself. According to projections by the Well Being Trust, the despair from the current situation could contribute to between 27,644 – 154,037 deaths.[1] Stress is an epidemic in and of itself, but no one is talking about how to flatten the mental health curve.
The good news is that if you read this blog, you are already looking for ways to Bulletproof your stress response system and be more resilient, no matter what the world brings to your door. You’ve read about ways you can protect yourself from the negative impacts of bad stress in this post. Here, you’re going to learn about the role of hormesis in mitigating stress and improving stress resilience, ultimately boosting the immune system. And since gyms and fitness centers are still closed or with limited offerings, what are the best biohacks we can do at home? This is all about resilience! (Nothing written here is a treatment or cure for anything, especially a virus.)
What is hormesis?
Hormesis is a fancy word for “what doesn’t kill you, makes you stronger.” The devil is in the details, however, because for stress to have a beneficial effect (improved health, stress tolerance, growth, or longevity), you have to control the timing and dose of stressors. The real definition of hormesis should be, “What doesn’t kill you or weaken you, makes you stronger.”
Our bodies are made to toughen up with hormeses such as heat, sun, cold, physical activity, and even famine. These things can hurt you at high intensity or for prolonged durations, but in small, hormetic doses, they make you stronger by stimulating an adaptive response and rejuvenating cellular processes. Research suggests that these responses help you live longer, reduce oxidative stress, improve your immune system, and boost your mood.
They are core biohacking techniques to become more resilient, and the good news is that you can do them at home even under lockdown.
Light it up
Using an infrared sauna is one of the best investments of your time because you can do it at the same time as other useful things! Within a 30 – 40 minute session, you can meditate and unwind, read, listen to Bulletproof Radio, or even take calls, all while getting the well-studied hormetic benefits of heat.
It can even help mentally. A 2016 clinical trial published in JAMA Psychiatry found that gentle infrared heat on the skin that increased core body temperature helped with mild to moderate depression in unmedicated patients. A single session of whole-body heat helped with depression within a week, and the effect lasted over six weeks.[2]
Dr. Charles Raison, MD, the lead author of this study, believes that increasing core body temperature and gentle skin heating help correct the neuronal miscommunications that contribute to depression. Also, the gentle and soothing warmth has similar effects to a hug, by increasing serotonin and oxytocin.[3]
For years, I have recommended and used Sunlighten saunas to increase my resilience. They effectively increase my core body temperature and gently heat my skin. Their Solocarbon heater produces far infrared waves, peaking at 9.4 microns, which is most compatible with human physiology.
Because infrared heat’s your body from the inside versus heating the surrounding air, you still sweat – a LOT – but at a much lower and comfortable temperature than an old fashioned dry sauna. Overheating the skin, such as with higher intensity of shorter-wavelength infrared spectrum, can diminish the mood-enhancing effects.[3]
It’s going to be a while before most psychiatrists start prescribing infrared saunas, but it’s worth considering because saunas have significantly fewer side effects than antidepressants. So if you’re feeling down during social distancing, spending some of that time in an infrared sauna is a great way to improve your mood and maybe even mental health.
During this government-mandated travel lockdown and lack of playdates for my kids, I’ve spent most mornings with my 11-year-old son in our Sunlighten sauna. It’s a great time to bond. We read from Ryan Holiday’s The Daily Stoic, and talk about how to be resilient. We aren’t alone – Dr. Caroline Leaf, a hard-charging cognitive neuroscientist, and mental health expert say she also uses her Sunlighten sauna daily to destress and improve her mental health.[4]
Then there’s sleep, which helps you be more resilient physically and mentally. Infrared therapy supports the immune system by improving sleep quality.[7] Sleep supports your immune function.
There are also physical hormetic benefits. I wanted highly emissive heaters and the correct spectrum, which is why I selected the Sunlighten sauna – 99% emissivity Solocarbon heaters and the 9.5 nm peak frequency. Regular sauna use can strengthen your immune system, similar to a fever. [5] The heat also stimulates heat-shock proteins (HSP) and antioxidants, which helps the immune system fight off viruses and reduces your risk of getting sick.[6]
HSPs are really important for your resilience. Your body makes them after you expose yourself to almost any kind of external stress, including exercise. HSPs (from sauna or exercise):
- help to maintain cellular homeostasis
- reactivate damaged or malformed proteins
- Turn on autophagy aka “housekeeping”
I use my Sunlighten sauna regularly because it’s the least painful way to turn on those HSP benefits. I also use intense exercise, blood flow restriction, hypoxia, ozone therapy/oxidative stress, and fasting, which are documented to do the same thing to HSP. It’s just that spending 30 minutes in my sauna to raise HSP is more relaxing and more fun!
Chill out
Immersing yourself with ice-cold water or sub-zero temperatures in a whole body cryotherapy chamber might sound like torture. But it works. Once you become cold-adapted, cold therapy actually invigorates your mood, cognitive function, and makes you healthier.[9][10] If you are new to cold therapy, it is important to gradually build up to it rather than jumping into an ice bath the first time. Becoming cold-adapted activates the vagus nerve, boosting your relaxation response and strengthening the nervous system against stress.[11] You’ve probably heard Wim Hof’s interview on Bulletproof Radio where he shows how he has used cold (and breathing) to completely stop immune system inflammation, even when he intentionally injected himself with a bacterial toxin!
Cold therapy is a type of hormesis that reduces inflammation and increases cellular antioxidants.[12][13] Although many people associate being cold with getting sick, repeated but brief cold exposure strengthens your immune system in the long run.[14] Cold exposure also helps improve insulin sensitivity,[15] which also helps with weight loss and overall health.
Because temperature fluctuations activate heat-shock proteins, hot-cold therapy (alternating between a hot sauna session and cold exposure) can be a great synergy. Many studies support the benefit of hot-cold therapy for exercise recovery because it can better clear inflammation from tissues than either heat or cold alone.[16] Alternating between a hot sauna and a cold shower also allows you to tolerate more heat and cold during each cycle, thus reaping more hormetic benefits. The good news is that a 1 minute cold shower, for just three days in a row, has the power to change cardiolipin in your mitochondrial membrane, as I wrote about in Super Human.
CRITICALLY IMPORTANT: Keep your cold exposures brief (and ideally follow with a sauna or a hot shower). Some people make the mistake of believing that since some cold is good, colder must be better. Getting truly chilled or being over-exposed to cold for long periods of time increases your risk of respiratory infection!
This is one reason I’m adding a Sunlighten sauna at the new Upgrade Labs location in Victoria, BC when it opens. I will suggest that members use it right after our liquid-nitrogen fueled cryotherapy sessions.
Take a breath
Breathing exercises are free, on-demand mind control. Traditions throughout the world have developed and used breathing exercises as part of their meditative or healing practices.
There are a variety of breathing patterns that can help you achieve the desired mental states, improve your stress resilience, or stimulate healing responses in your body. Mindfulness breathing helps you focus, whereas Pranayama breathing can help you calm down. Dr. Andrew Weil, MD, developed the 4-7-8 breathing, a type of Pranayama breathing that quells the nighttime monkey mind for a good night’s sleep. He shared it during his interview on Bulletproof Radio. Wim Hof breathing, before cold exposure, involves controlled hyperventilation before breath-holding to strengthen your nervous system and stress response. It also makes cold not hurt!
Breath-holding patterns are also a form of hormesis that makes your lungs stronger. In small doses, it slightly increases oxidative stress in the airway, making you more resilient and boosting your airway antioxidant levels.[17] In Head Strong, I talk about brief oxygen deprivation called Intermittent Hypoxia, which I use at Upgrade Labs to help clients raise HSP and stimulate neurons to create more mitochondria.
In the spirit of stacking my biohacks, I sometimes do breathing exercises inside my sauna. Since both can raise HSP, doing them at the same time makes a lot of sense!
Fast(ing) food
Intermittent fasting, a core part of the Bulletproof Diet since 2011, and the topic of my upcoming book Fast This Way is the practice of eating during a shortened window of time. Fasting of any type combats insulin resistance and obesity.
Since obesity and insulin resistance significantly increase the risk of complications and death for any illness (including COVID-19), start doing it now. Fasting also improves brain function and protects the brain in stressful situations.[18] Third, it stimulates autophagy or cellular self-cleaning, which rejuvenates your cells and may help with cellular defense against viruses.[19] And yes, it increases HSP – just like my infrared sauna.
During this pandemic, Dr. Peter Attia, one of the early guests on Bulletproof Radio, recommends against extended fasts of over two days because it can spike cortisol and dampen the immune system, making you more susceptible to infections.[20] However, shorter fasts like a restricted daily eating window are still beneficial.
CRITICALLY IMPORTANT: Fasting is a stressor on the body. If you’re exhausted and stressed, or menstruating, try intermittent fasting every other day. You can over-exercise, and you can over-fast. Both of them will reduce your immune function!
To learn how to fast without hunger and pain, check out Fast This Way. It also includes a section on heat and cold exposure. For instance, I recommend doing your infrared sauna session towards the end of an intermittent fast, which helps it to liberate stored glycogen from your cells.
Get some sun
One of the first three posts on this blog 10 years ago was about the importance of sun exposure, and a lot more research has come out since then. Most people still fear the sun because the sunscreen industry has a big incentive to emphasize that sun exposure damages the skin and causes skin cancers.
They are right. Too much sun exposure does exactly that, and so do sunburns. A logical person would conclude that, if some sun exposure is bad, you should minimize it.
That’s a bad idea too. A 2017 Swedish study found that sun avoidance is linked to all-cause mortality. [21] While too much sun increases the incidence of skin cancers, the correct dose of sunlight reduces your risk of all other types of cancers. The key driver of sun-related skin cancers is sunburn, but sun exposure at hormesis doses (avoiding sunburns) greatly exceeds the risk.
Vitamin D is crucial during this pandemic because it protects against respiratory tract infections. [22] Most people can’t raise their vitamin D levels enough from sun exposure alone without also damaging their skin. The best strategy is to get a blood test of your Vitamin D3 levels and take enough vitamin D to get your levels to about 70-90 ng/ml. Because of genetics, you may require a lot more, or a lot less, than other people. For instance, despite my white skin, I require about 15,000 IU of vitamin D3. That’s nearly 3x the average amount someone my weight would need.
However, taking Vitamin D3 is only part of the problem. You simply must also expose your skin and eyes to sunlight in order to activate the D3 from your supplements via a process called sulfation.
Hormetic doses (about 20-30 minutes) of the sun’s full-spectrum light affects your physiology far beyond vitamin D, here’s how:
- UVB light is what you need to synthesize vitamin D. To get vitamin D, you need UVB exposure both on your skin and through your eyes. Remember to get sun without sunglasses, glasses, or contacts. If your eyes are sun-sensitive, blink them often to cool them and start with lower sun intensity, such as around sunrise and sunset.
- Full-spectrum light exposure in the morning anchors your circadian rhythm. Roughly twelve hours after your eyes are first exposed to blue light, melatonin is released in the brain, leading to drowsiness and sleep. This is why “blue blocker” glasses during the day are a BAD idea.
- UVA and infrared spectra improve your nitric oxide levels, which protect your heart and blood vessels.[23][24]
- Sunlight includes infrared light too. (I live in Canada where there is a lack of sunshine, which is one reason I use my infrared sauna, especially during winter.)
You don’t need to become a leather-skinned sun worshipper to get a hormetic dose of sunshine. Use these tips to get just the right dose and avoid damage:
- Try the Dminder app, which has a timer to alert you to stop before you burn based on the UVB intensity at your location, time of day, and your skin type.
- Get more sun exposure in the morning and late afternoon, since sunlight during this time has more red light and less damaging UV radiation. The red light boosts the skin antioxidants, which protects from sun damage that will occur.
- Supplements that contain astaxanthin and vitamin C help protect your skin from sunburn.
- Supplements that contain broad-spectru polyphenols can make it easier to tan because melanin (the dark compound in the skin) is made up of cross-linked polyphenols! I use the polyphenol formula I created for Bulletproof daily.
- Start slowly and gently with your sun exposure, and gradually build-up to the more intense sun for a more extended period of time. You won’t need more than 30 minutes.
Infrared light is one of the most relaxing and beneficial spectrums of sunlight. If you cannot get consistent and optimal infrared from daily sun exposure, either because you live in a Northern climate, or because it’s winter, or because your government forbids you to go outside (note: I can’t believe I even typed that sentence.), there is still hope.
You can reap similar hormetic benefits with an infrared sauna, without the skin aging from UV rays. Combined with vitamin D supplementation, infrared saunas can boost protective nitric oxide production, trigger autophagy, boost mood, and improve sleep quality. As I mentioned earlier, Sunlighten saunas contain the most beneficial infrared wavelengths, with far, mid, and near-infrared, which is why it’s what I use at home.
Mix and Match
If this article was too much info for you, it’s ok. Just do at least one of the things you read about here. These biohacks each boost mitochondria, improve mental health and increase immune function. You do get more mileage when you stack them together.
For example, a breathing practice can powerfully combine with heat or cold exposure. Wim Hof breathing coupled with cold exposure is a great synergy to invigorate your mind early in the day. It also boosts your cognitive function and stimulates your vagus nerve. Then, workout or go for a social walk outside during the day to get sun.
In the evening, end your day with meditative breathing while relaxing in an infrared sauna. My Sunlighten Sauna even has a targeted infrared spectrum for relaxation, designed to boost happiness and love neurotransmitters. Better yet, invite your partner to the sauna with you. After all, it’s traditional to use your sauna naked… 🙂
What biohacks are you using at home during this time?
https://daveasprey.com/heat-cold-light-and-what-to-skip-to-keep-your-immune-system-strong/
Lansing Street Advisors is a registered investment adviser with the State of Pennsylvania..
To the extent that content includes references to securities, those references do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or hold such security as information is provided for educational purposes only. Articles should not be considered investment advice and the information contain within should not be relied upon in assessing whether or not to invest in any securities or asset classes mentioned. Articles have been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Securities discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Please keep in mind that a company’s past financial performance, including the performance of its share price, does not guarantee future results.
Material compiled by Lansing Street Advisors is based on publicly available data at the time of compilation. Lansing Street Advisors makes no warranties or representation of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to the use such data.
Material for market review represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results.
Indices that may be included herein are unmanaged indices and one cannot directly invest in an index. Index returns do not reflect the impact of any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. The index information included herein is for illustrative purposes only.
Topley’s Top 10 – March 24, 2020
Topley’s Top 10 – March 12, 2021
1. Retail Trading Now Accounts for Almost as Much Volume as Mutual Funds and Hedge Funds Combined.
Topley’s Top 10 – February 12, 2021
1.The Record is 11 Up Days in a Row for Nasdaq…..9 Right Now
Andrew Thrasher, CMT, @AndrewThrasher
For the 7th time since 1990, the NYSE has had 8 consecutive positive closes. The record is 11 days, set in May 1990.
https://twitter.com/AndrewThrasher/status/1359858837654802443/photo/1
Continue readingTopley’s Top 10 – January 29, 2021
1. GME Got to 9.5% of XRT Retail ETF
XRT Retail stocks ETF….This will concern regulators
Topley’s Top 10 – December 18, 2020
1. What Happens After 95% Surge Off Lows in Small Cap
That said, SentimenTrader notes a surge of 95% off a low has preceded losses in the small-cap index over the next 3 months every time
Topley’s Top 10 – December 17, 2020
1. Hedge Fund Leverage Near Record Levels
The Daily Shot https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-december-15th-2020/
Continue readingTopley’s Top 10 – December 11, 2020
Topley’s Top 10 – December 10, 2020
1.Who Got Rescued?
Just 1 percent of borrowers received a quarter of loans from the federal Paycheck Protection Program.
Topley’s Top 10 – December 4, 2020
1.#1 and #2 Today…Two Market Indicators…One Stocks Cheap and One Stocks 2nd Most Expensive Ever.
S&P Dividend Yield Versus U.S. Treasuries…Above 1 is cheap
A Favorite Bullish Indicator For Stocks Is Still Flashing Green
Take a look at the chart below that shows the ratio of the S&P 500 dividend yield to the 10-year treasury yield. The ratio skyrocketed because the 10-year bond yield has plummeted, yet the S&P 500 dividend yield has remained relatively steady between 1.8% – 2%.
Topley’s Top 10 – December 3, 2020
1. Asset Classes-Historical Average Vs. Last 10 Years
If not stocks, what else?
What about other asset classes? Take a look at the chart below, which plots each asset’s annualized inflation-adjusted return over the last decade against its long-term average. The asset that performed the worst since 2010, relative to its historical average, was gold, followed closely by international stocks and U.S. bonds.
Topley’s Top 10 – December 2, 2020
1. Russell 2000 just had its best month ever … November’s 18.3% gain eclipsed prior record of 16.4% set in February 2000
Topley’s Top 10 – December 1, 2020
1. Nasdaq Thanksgiving Week Volume was Double Last Year.
Dave Lutz Jones Trading–Volume on the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index averaged 1.07 billion shares per day through last Wednesday — making it the biggest lead up to Thanksgiving since 2004 and almost double the volume of last year
Topley’s Top 10 – November 30, 2020
Topley’s Top 10 – November 27, 2020
Topley’s Top 10 – November 25, 2020
1. From Cash Pre-Election to Tsunami of Equity Inflows Post-Election
EPFR notes there has been a Tsunami of inflows over the past 2 weeks
Continue readingTopley’s Top 10 – November 23, 2020
1.The Biggest Stock Market Reversal in History
Source: A Wealth of Common Sense Found at Barry Ritholtz Blog
Topley’s Top 10 – November 20, 2020
1. Top 10 Has Shown Multiple Charts on Dollar Weakness….Euro Most Common Currency Last Month First Time Since 2013
Dave Lutz at Jones Trading The euro was the most used currency for global payments last month, the first time it has outpaced the dollar since February 2013 – Data from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications, which handles cross-border payment messages for more than 11,000 financial institutions in 200 countries,showedthe European Union’s single currency and the greenback were followed by the British pound and the Japanese yen.The Canadian dollar overtook China’s yuan for the fifth spot, Swift said\\
Topley’s Top 10 – November 19, 2020
1. Russell 2000 Small Cap-Highest Percentage of Small Caps Above 200 Day Moving Average.
Topley’s Top 10 – November 18, 2020
1. Year-End Historically Positive for Momentum Stocks
Momentum stocks may get an end-of-the-year push, history shows
Last Updated: Nov. 17, 2020 at 2:30 p.m. ETFirst Published: Nov. 17, 2020 at 7:07 a.m. ET
By Mark Hulbert
Topley’s Top 10 – November 17, 2020
1. Small Cap Value Watch for Break Above 5 Year Sideways.
VBR-Vanguard Small Cap Value 5 Year Chart
https://ycharts.com/companies/VBR
Continue readingTopley’s Top 10 – November 16, 2020
Topley’s Top 10 – November 13, 2020
Topley Top 10 – November 12, 2020
1. Another Look at the Record Cash on Sidelines.
Record cash on the sidelines missing the recovery.
Topley’s Top 10 – November 11, 2020
1. Value Stocks and Presidential Elections.
Marketwatch–Value investing, which has been maligned for years, is about to come back in style.
Why would there be a return to favor after underperforming for so long? Because elections have a long track record of doing wonders for value stocks, whose prices are deemed low compared with business prospects. (I highlight, below, 20 value companies that may benefit as a result.)
Value stocks outperformed growth for half a year after every presidential election since 1980, according to research by Larry McDonald and his team at the Bear Traps Report.
Topley’s Top 10 – November 10, 2020
Topley’s Top 10 – November 9, 2020
1. VIX Drops 38% Election Week…The Largest Weekly Drop Since Last Presidential Election.
VIX 4thLargest Weekly Drop on Record
Topley’s Top 10 – November 6, 2020
1. S&P Post-Election Rally Only Gains Back 2 Week Sell-Off.
S&P Still Below Sept Highs
Topley’s Top 10 – November 5, 2020
1. The Reduction in Small Business Loans………Loans for Under $100m from Banks to Small Business Down 75% Since 2008.
I heard this stat from Joel Greenblatt interview on Masters in Businesshttps://www.bloomberg.com/podcasts/masters_in_business?sref=GGda9y2L
Topley’s Top 10 – November 4, 2020
Topley’s Top 10 – November 3, 2020
1. Commodities Hit New All-Time Lows Versus S&P 500 Blowing Thru 1999 Bottom
Commodity Index vs. S&P Historical
Topley’s Top 10 – October 30, 2020
1. Earnings Per Share Beats are not Being Rewarded.
Goldmannotesearnings beats are not being rewardedand misses are getting sold
Continue readingTopley’s Top 10 – October 29, 2020
Topley’s Top 10 – October 28, 2020
Topley’s Top 10 – October 27, 2020
Topley’s Top 10 – October 26, 2020
Topley’s Top 10 – October 23, 2020
1. Mutual Fund and ETF Stock Fund Flows Have Been Straight Down Since 2016…..Negative $200B+ 2020
Do vs. say-From Advisor Perspectives
Although there is extreme speculation occurring by some cohorts of investors—especially within the options market—the same can’t be said about all behavioral measures of sentiment. Case in point would be equity mutual fund and exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows. As you can see in the chart below, there has been a steady cumulative downdraft in flows since the beginning of 2015—belying the extremes witnessed more recently in the options market. I will speculate that there may be an age/demographic bias at play; with younger traders/investors betting on a rising market (or at least a rise in the stocks on which they’re betting with call options), and older investors less sanguine.
Fund Flows’ More Somber Message
Source: Charles Schwab, Investment Company Institute (ICI), as of 8/31/2020.
Continue readingTopley’s Top 10 – October 22, 2020
Topley’s Top 10 – October 21, 2020
Topley Top 10 – October 20, 2020
1. October Earnings Schedule…60% of S&P Reports in Next Two Weeks.
We get Earnings fromNetflix on Tuesday, Tesla and Verizon on Wednesday, and Intel Thursday. Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Facebook report the following week.—Dave Lutz at Jones Trading
