1. NVDA vs. AAPL

At 27 times projected earnings, Apple trades roughly in line with Nvidia. One company isn’t growing. One company is on fire. Investors can do the math. Barrons Eric J. Savitz  https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-nvidia-stock-price-tech-earnings-478083ec?mod=past_editions

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2. Another Look at Small Cap vs. QQQ

Chart of the Day—Found at Abnormal Returns Blog www.abnormalreturns.com

Large cap tech stocks have been outperforming small caps for awhile now.

(allstarcharts.com)

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3. By Far the Longest Drawdown in Bond History

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4. Global Central Banks Already Cutting Rates.

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5. Companies with Huge Cash Stockpiles.

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6. Ryan Detrick Carson—Recession Not In Numbers Yet.

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 7. Who Owns U.S. Debt 2023?  China Selling and Japan May Start Selling

https://usafacts.org/articles/which-countries-own-the-most-us-debt/#:~:text=As%20a%20result%2C%20totals%20from%20January%202023%20are%20lower%20than%20reported.&text=As%20of%20January%202023%2C%20the,and%20Luxembourg%20(%24318%20billion).

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8. U.S. Dropping as China Trade Partner

WJS Latin America, Africa and developing markets in Asia now account for 36% of overall Chinese trade, compared with 33% for its trade with the U.S., Europe and Japan, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of Chinese customs data. As recently as last summer, that trio of advanced markets accounted for a larger share of Chinese trade. Write to Jason Douglas at jason.douglas@wsj.com and Tom Fairless at tom.fairless@wsj.com

https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/economy-us-china-tariffs-trade-investment-1c58d24e?mod=itp_wsj

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9. Growth of Home Schooling in U.S.

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10. The Secret to Persuading Almost Anyone Comes Down to 4 Simple Words

Getting buy-in is all about creating the right expectations.

BY JASON ATEN, TECH COLUMNIST@JASONATEN

Getting someone to do a thing you want them to do is one of the most challenging things about interacting with other humans. We all have our own agendas and desires and they are often informed by our individual values and perception of the world around us. 

If you are in a job that involves persuading people–like sales, or leading a team–you know that one of the most important aspects of persuasion is creating the right expectations. If you want a person to do something, it’s helpful to start by getting buy-in from them, and expectations help to do just that.

For example, imagine you are sitting across the table from someone who is trying to figure out what to buy from you. For them, this is all new, and they’re having to make a series of decisions about whether all of the things you offer will be a good fit. You can see that they’re trying to sort through it all when you say, “Most of my customers…” followed by whatever it is that most of your customers choose.

“Most of my customers find that option ‘C’ gives them the flexibility they need, while scaling affordably as they grow.”

There’s a very simple reason this works. Most people want to be like most people, most of the time. That’s human nature. If someone is considering becoming your customer, they aren’t just buying a thing, they’re buying into the experience of being your customer. For them, knowing what that means creates expectations and makes them more comfortable. 

Look, even though they may say otherwise, most people don’t want to be unique. They want to be like the rest of your customers and you can help by telling them what that means. That is, after all, the entire point of almost all marketing–to tell a story about what it looks like to use a product or service.

There are, of course, a few important caveats. The first is that whatever comes after those four words have to be true. If you just make stuff up, it might persuade someone for a short time, but, eventually, it will become obvious that you lied. Not only will they not be persuaded, they won’t ever trust you again. It’s just not worth it.

This is important because it can be tempting to try this trick to persuade people to spend more or to choose something that isn’t in their best interests. That’s a different four-word phrase altogether: “Everyone is doing it.” The difference is, that’s about putting peer pressure on someone to do something for your own benefit. Again, it might work for a little while, but it will cost you your credibility. 

Second, this works best when the person you are persuading is making a decision to buy in. The key is that the person wants to be a part of the group, whether that’s your customers or your team. It’s not helpful to tell someone what all of your customers do if they aren’t in any way interested in being one of your customers.

Finally, those four words work even better when you follow them with an explanation of why. For example, “most of our clients choose option ‘C’ because it gives them the flexibility they need while allowing them to scale affordably,” gives your potential customer the information they need to see themself in that situation. 

Obviously, this doesn’t work for everyone. That’s why I say “almost anyone,” because there will always be someone who resists any attempt to conform to whatever is normal. That’s okay. When you find that it doesn’t work, it’s probably a good sign that that customer wasn’t a good fit anyway.

https://www.inc.com/jason-aten/the-secret-to-persuading-almost-anyone-comes-down-to-4-simple-words.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkedin&utm_campaign=freeform

1. Magnificent 7 Comparable Valuations.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• The PEG ratio enhances the P/E ratio by adding expected earnings growth into the calculation.
• The PEG ratio is considered to be an indicator of a stock’s true value, and similar to the P/E ratio, a lower PEG may indicate that a stock is undervalued.
• The PEG for a given company may differ significantly from one reported source to another.
• Differences will depend on which growth estimate is used in the calculation, such as one-year or three-year projected growth.
• A PEG lower than 1.0 is best, suggesting that a company is relatively undervalued.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pegratio.asp

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2. Small Cap 600 Hits Covid Levels…P/E 12

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3. Equal Weighted to Cap Weighted Lowest Since 2008.

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4. U.S. Dollar More New Highs

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5. International a Couple Strong Days.

But…Year to Date Dollar Up=Emerging Markets Down….U.S. Dollar +8% vs. Emerging Markets -3%

www.yahoofinance.com

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6. Households Long 60/40 Getting Worried After 2 Years Negative

The 60/40 portfolio continues to underperform and households are getting more worried about their retirement, see chart below.

Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, Partner

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7. COST VS. TGT …

This chart shows big outperformance of Costco vs. Target

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8. Uranium Making Run at Highs.

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9. Home Remodeling=Rates Up Projects Down

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10. Your Brain Is Incredibly Creative and Adaptable

Psychology Today The brain’s ability to keep us from becoming prey is a remarkable feat. Justin James Kennedy,

KEY POINTS

• Popular narratives oversimplify the complexity of the brain as a three-layered structure.
• The brain is designed to creatively coordinate actions to adapt to the environment and navigate challenges.
• The brain shares a common foundation with mammals but has a unique, extensive developmental window.

Co-authored by Denise Cooper.

When we learn about the theory of evolution, we often envision a vast interwoven tree that culminates with humans at the end. This perception imbues the natural world with purpose, leading us to reverse-engineer everything and see all previous life forms as mere stepping stones toward humanity. The human brain is a remarkable organ designed to coordinate our actions, enabling us to adapt to our environment and navigate its challenges. However, it is crucial to maintain sight of what the brain is for and how it evolved.

The Brain’s Evolutionary Purpose

Similar to other mammals and vertebrates, the human brain has a common structural foundation. Its true distinction lies in the extensive developmental window through which it matures. Unlike other animals whose instincts primarily prompt flight, fight, or survival behaviors, human infants are born with a different set of questions in mind: “Where am I? What am I dealing with? And what do I need?” These inquiries have been instrumental in propelling human development to its current state.

The Brain’s Evolutionary Arms Race

The evolution of brains was propelled by the predator-prey dynamic, initiating a competitive race between species to outsmart one another. Consequently, the imperative for survival drove the evolution of heightened senses, agile muscles, powerful wings, and swift feet, all necessitating more advanced brains to support these adaptations.

The Brain’s Complexity

The common narrative often simplifies the human brain into three distinct layers: the “lizard brain” for basics, the “limbic brain” for regulation, and the “cerebral cortex” for rationality. However, this portrayal, while convenient, fails to capture the true complexity of our brains. In reality, all brains, regardless of complexity, are intricately designed to coordinate increasingly sophisticated functions.

The human brain, a marvel of complexity, governs our thoughts, emotions, movements, and coordination. What truly distinguishes the human brain is its remarkable creativity and adaptability. Constantly generating innovative ideas and problem-solving solutions, our brains enable us to invent, create art, and find novel approaches, even in challenging circumstances.

Our brains exhibit extraordinary adaptability. When confronted with new challenges, they can rewire themselves to help us overcome obstacles. For instance, when we learn a new language, our brains create fresh neural pathways to store the information.

If we experience the loss of a limb, our brains can remap sensory and motor areas to compensate for the loss. This inherent creativity and adaptability are the essence of our humanity, empowering us to learn, evolve, innovate, and thrive in an ever-changing world.

The Resilience and Brilliance of the Human Brain

Barrett, L. F., & Satpute, A. B. (2013) emphasize that the structure of our brains is not drastically different from that of other mammals or vertebrates. What sets us apart, though, is the extensive developmental phase during which our brains mature. As infants, our instinctive reactions are not solely focused on flight, fight, or hiding; instead, we inquire about our location, situation, needs, and desires.

While it may lack grandiosity, the most remarkable aspect of our brain is its ability to ensure our survival. Our brains have honed their adaptability through countless generations, enabling us to evade the threats. This resilience is a testament to the evolutionary success of our species.

Its adaptability and capacity to navigate complex environments have been pivotal in our species’ progression. As we continue to uncover the mysteries of the brain, it is crucial to appreciate its primal nature and the remarkable journey that has brought us to where we are today—safely and triumphantly evading the perils of our world and designing new and exciting realities.

Conclusion

It is essential to acknowledge that the narratives we construct to showcase our creative side are merely stories, and their accuracy cannot always be verified, as per Barrett, L. F., Mesquita, B., Ochsner, K. N., & Gross, J. J. (2007) The popularised story often told about our brain, which portrays it as a three-layered structure: the “lizard brain” responsible for basic functions, the “limbic brain” for regulation, and the “cerebral cortex” for rationality, is limiting. This storyline is attractive, aligning neatly with the familiar biology classroom poster. But it doesn’t explain the human mind’s extraordinary ability to envision new ideas and turn them into functional tools for our enjoyment and betterment.

Professor Lisa Feldman Barrett offers insights into how the brain processes emotions and the need for social interactions. However, it is crucial to remember the brain’s purpose and how it came into existence. The brain’s fundamental role is to coordinate our actions effectively, enabling us to adapt to our surroundings. Given that the world is filled with surprises, many of which threaten our well-being, possessing a brain is our best defense mechanism.

While it may not be the most glamorous tale or a blockbuster movie plot, let’s take a moment to appreciate the sheer brilliance of our brains. Keep up the great work, brain—you’re doing an exceptional job of bringing wonder and delight to the world and keeping us off the carnivore menu.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/brain-reboot/202311/your-brain-is-incredibly-creative-and-adaptable

1. P/E Rations Magnificent 7 Vs. The World.

A once-in-a-generation opportunity (rbadvisors.com)

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2. Three Consecutive Down Months for S&P

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3. Another Consumer Stock Gaps Down….EL…$340 to $105

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4. Vanguard REIT Index Breaks Below 2022 Lows.

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5. Public Markets vs. Private Equity Size…Torsten Slok Apollo

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6. Net Worth Boom

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7. U.S. Homes 3.4 Months Supply for Sale.

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8. Share of U.S. Borrowers in Mortgage Delinquency at 25-Year Low

Found at Michael Batnick Blog https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/

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9. Britian From Imperialism to Exporting Elite Private Education

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10. Pitfalls That Destroy Organizational Trust-HBR

by Frances X. Frei and Anne Morriss Facebook made “Move fast and break things” an informal company motto. But leadership experts Frances Frei and Anne Morriss argue that this belief is deeply flawed — and that it keeps leaders from building a great company.

The best leaders move fast and fix things — they solve hard problems while making their organizations stronger. In their new book Move Fast and Fix Things (Harvard Business Review Press), Frei and Morriss outline five strategies to help leaders tackle their hardest problems and quickly make change:

1. Identify your real problem. (See 10 Signs Your Company Is Resistant to Change)
2. Build — or rebuild — trust with your stakeholders.
3. Create inclusive conditions that allow your whole team to thrive. (See 10 Reasons Why Inclusion Is a Competitive Advantage)
4. Tell a compelling story about the change you need to make.
5. Execute your plan with a sense of urgency.

This month, we’ll be publishing a series of excerpts that correspond to each strategy. In this excerpt, Frei and Morriss explain that, just as with personal trust, organizational trust relies on the presence of authenticity, empathy, and logic. But most organizations are shaky on at least one of these trust pillars.  Which ones are getting in the way of your organization’s progress? 

In order to trust you as an organization, your stakeholders need to believe three things: that you care about them (empathy), that you’re capable of meeting their needs (logic), and that you can be expected to do what you say you’ll do (authenticity). Just like when people lose trust, organizations that are losing trust — or failing to build as much trust as they could — tend to get shaky or wobble on one of these three dimensions. Below is a list of some of the trust problems we see most frequently in our work, along with what they reveal about what’s getting wobbly.

 1. Aversion to making choices

This one can present in all kinds of ways, from managing for consensus to trying to be great at everything you do as an organization. A gentle reminder: although it may feel safer to hedge your bets, catering to a constituent that can be best described as “everyone” is often a much riskier path for the company. Your refusal to choose is increasing the likelihood of exhausted mediocrity. Trust wobble: logic.

2. Reliance on heroic employees

Many business models are designed for employees we wish we had, not for the employees we actually have — the ones with imperfections and lives outside of work. If your operations depend on people continuously going above and beyond, then be prepared to work much harder to find these magical creatures and reward them with outsize compensation. Few organizations are truly up for the task. Trust wobble: logic.

3. Shiny object syndrome

The human brain is wired to focus on the new, new thing, even when the old, old thing matters more. A lack of intention (also known, less cheerily, as lack of discipline) in the pursuit of new opportunities puts your business model at risk. Excellent adventures in new products and markets are often justified by hazy ROI equations that inflate the upside and downplay the risk, including the cost of distraction from more urgent priorities. May be accompanied by other types of magical thinking. Trust wobble: logic.

4. Disengaged middle management

Managers in what we call the “murky middle” of an organization are often the only people who know the true distance between a company’s reality and its ambition. They know how much effort it’s going to take to win, understand the true hazards of the journey, and typically have the most to lose (and least to gain) along the way. And yet, instead of being unleashed in moments of big change, middle managers are often overlooked by a leadership team that’s focused on inspiring the front lines and gaining buy-in at the top. Trust wobble: empathy.

5. Casual relationship with other people’s time

Do you treat your people’s time as if it’s your most strategic asset? It’s one of our favorite leadership reflection prompts, and you’ll hear us repeat it again and again. Far too many organizations are far too comfortable wasting their employees’ time on everything from clunky HR software to forcing everyone to come into the office to indulge a nostalgic view of what work used to feel like. The opportunity cost is immeasurable. Trust wobble: empathy.

6. Comfort with collateral damage

This is the “break things” part of “Move fast and break things,” which can get embedded into an organization’s culture. It often presents as desensitization to unintentional harms and justified by a “We tried our best” storyline. Organizations that would never tolerate this attitude when it comes to some parts of the business (“We tried our best to protect our financial data!”) often want participation trophies for trying not to harm their users and employees. Trust wobble: empathy.

7. High incidence of the “Sunday scaries”

If a significant percentage of your colleagues feel an impending sense of dread at the thought of coming to work, then something is strained, if not broken, in the company’s relationship with its employees. Sometimes there’s an unskilled (or worse) manager to blame, but when people are experiencing this kind of anticipatory anxiety at scale, then there’s an org-level problem that needs to be fixed. (Spoiler: You’re getting a small fraction of what your people are capable of contributing.) Trust wobble: empathy.

8. People-pleasing in the boardroom

This pattern is rooted in our human impulse to tell people what we think they want to hear, particularly when said people can materially impact our organizational and/or professional futures. We’re not talking about fraud or misrepresentation here but rather a habit of gently withholding, massaging, and constructing reality. The trust hit for this one is often higher than we think, since boards tend are sensitive to being managed and typically composed of excellent detectors of partial truths. Know that what they really want from you is the information they need to help the company solve problems. Trust wobble: authenticity.

9. Tolerance for misalignment

Is your marketing team writing checks that your product team can’t cash? Lack of alignment anywhere in the business is a problem but pay closest attention to org-level disconnects. One we see frequently is a gap between strategy and culture — for example, a strategy of innovation layered onto a culture defined by coloring within the lines. Trust wobble: authenticity.

10. Delusions of meritocracy

OK, here’s what this looks like: you’ve told yourselves you’re a meritocracy, but you keep hiring, promoting, and retaining the same types of people. If the humans at the top of your organization bear little resemblance to the rest of your employees, the customers you serve, or the demographic distribution of the communities in which you operate, then we promise you, you’re not a meritocracy. Trust wobble: authenticity.

Read more on Organizational change or related topics Change management, Business management, Collaboration and teams, Inclusion and belonging, Organizational development, Organizational culture, Organizational decision making, Organizational transformation, Project management, Innovation and Leadership and managing people

• Frances X. Frei is the UPS Foundation Professor of Service Management at Harvard Business School and is a coauthor of the books Move Fast and Fix Things and Unleashed.
• Anne Morriss is an entrepreneur and the executive founder of the Leadership Consortium. She is also the coauthor of Move Fast and Fix Things and Unleashed.

https://hbr.org/2023/10/10-pitfalls-that-destroy-organizational-trust?tpcc=orgsocial_edit&utm_campaign=hbr&utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkedin

1. Russell 1000 Growth Holding Above 200-Day

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2. Small Cap SMIN India Breaks Above 2021 Highs

Small cap India vs. Small Cap China ECNS….2023 India outperformance.

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3. AAPL and MSFT Bigger Market Cap than 4 Sectors Combined

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4. Bitcoin Rally………Coin Big Rally But Stays in Sideways Pattern

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5. Crypto Miners MARA and RIOT

MARA still below 200day

RIOT still below 200-day

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6. KBW Bank Index Trades Back to Covid Levels.

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7. Eurozone Inflation Falling Rapidly

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8. China Restructures Belt and Road Loans.

From Zerohedge Blog

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/chinas-belt-and-road-rescue-lending-soars

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9. Case-Shiller Home Prices Rise 6-Months in a Row.

Marketwatch Aarthi Swaminathan

What S&P said: “On a year-to-date basis, the National Composite has risen 5.8%, which is well above the median full calendar year increase in more than 35 years of data,” said Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI. 

“The year’s increase in mortgage rates has surely suppressed housing demand, but after years of very low rates, it seems to have suppressed supply even more,” he added.

“Unless higher rates or other events lead to general economic weakness, the breadth and strength of this month’s report are consistent with an optimistic view of future results,” Lazzara said.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-home-prices-rose-for-the-sixth-month-in-a-row-case-shiller-says-2060f19b?mod=home-page

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10. Exposure to light at night found to increase risk of depression by 30%

Found at Abnormal Returns Blog https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/exposure-to-light-at-night-found-to-increase-risk-of-depression-by-30/

By Paul McClure

A study has found that nighttime exposure to light increases the risk of mental illness

Depositphotos

VIEW 1 IMAGES

A new study has found that exposure to light at night messes with our internal body clock, increasing the risk of mental illness, while daytime light exposure reduces that risk. The findings offer a simple and effective, non-pharmacological means of improving mental health.

Our internal body clock, or circadian rhythm, regulates cycles of alertness and sleepiness by responding to the changes in light in our environment. While other cues such as exercise, social activity and temperature can affect circadian rhythm, light remains the most powerful influence.

It’s known that disturbances in circadian rhythm are a common feature of many psychiatric disorders. So, it makes sense that light exposure is a modifiable environmental risk factor in mental illness. To investigate, Monash University researchers led the world’s largest study on the effect of exposure to daytime and nighttime light on mental illness risk.

The researchers recruited 86,772 adult participants from the UK Biobank who were examined for their exposure to light, sleep, physical activity and mental health. They found that in those exposed to high amounts of light at night, the risk of depression increased by 30%, while in those exposed to high amounts of daytime light, their risk of depression fell by 20%.

Similar patterns were seen for self-harming behavior, psychosis, bipolar disorder, generalized anxiety disorder, and PTSD. The findings were consistent when accounting for demographic factors, physical activity, sleep, shift work, living environment and cardiometabolic health.

“Our findings will have a potentially huge societal impact,” said Sean Cain, one of the study’s co-authors. “Once people understand that their light exposure patterns have a powerful influence on their mental health, they can take some simple steps to optimize their wellbeing. It’s about getting bright light in the day and darkness at night.”

The researchers say that modern life – particularly artificial light and the light from devices like phones, computers and TV screens – has confused our internal body clocks, challenging how our brains have evolved to work best during the bright light of day.

“Humans today challenge this biology, spending around 90% of the day indoors under electric lighting, which is too dim during the day and too bright at night compared with natural light and dark cycles,” Cain said. “It is confusing to our bodies and making us unwell.”

The study’s findings demonstrate that avoiding light at night and seeking light during the day may be a simple and effective non-pharmacological way of improving mental health.

The study was published in the journal Nature Mental Health.

Source: https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/exposure-to-light-at-night-found-to-increase-risk-of-depression-by-30/

Monash University

1. Residential Real Estate 4x Larger than Commercial Real Estate…The American Dream has a Massive $44.5 Trillion Dollar Value.

From Bramshill InvestmentsInsights | Bramshill Investments

Home Barrons–equity accounts for almost half of the median net worth of homeowners 60 and older, according to a Vanguard analysis. The average retirement savings, meanwhile, is $223,000. Home equity can provide a meaningful addition to that—provided retirees can make an advantageous move. https://www.barrons.com/articles/rising-home-prices-retirees-2e917a5d?mod=past_editions

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2. Small Cap at Summer 2018 Levels

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3. Dividend Yield Poor Performer 2023.

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4. Semiconductor ETF Hitting 200day

Barrons By Tae Kim–Of the 115,000 new jobs needed by the U.S. chip industry by 2030, some 67,000 jobs will go unfilled, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association. The U.S. trains foreigners in its world-class education system, but immigration policies make it difficult for U.S. companies to hire them.

Intel says foreign nationals make up more than 60% of advanced science, technology, engineering, and mathematics, or STEM, degree students at U.S. universities in the technical fields necessary for chip industry jobs. The company supports providing green cards to students who earn these advanced STEM degrees. https://www.barrons.com/articles/netflix-stock-price-hikes-password-crackdown-5176e57b?mod=past_editions

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5. Historical Returns of Stocks and Bonds with Inflation.

Capital Group

https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/fed-inflation-target-could-be-delivered-early.html?sfid=1988901890&cid=81068956&et_cid=81068956&cgsrc=SFMC&alias=btn-LP-A1cta-advisor

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6. Buybacks Trending Downward.

Chart Storm Callum Thomas Q4 is typically a stronger quarter in terms of buybacks, but it is notable that the recent trend has been down in terms of buyback announcements. Some of this will have to do with the cost pressures dampening margins last year, but especially also with borrowing costs now a lot higher — making it more difficult a calculus for firms to fund buybacks with debt.

Source:  @WallStHorizon via Daily Chartbook and @MikeZaccardi

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7. BMW -20% Correction

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8. Homebuilders -17% from Highs

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9. Top 10 Moves Between States

Axios

https://www.axios.com/2023/10/28/americans-moving-map-2022-florida-texas

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10. The 5 Universal Truths of Anxiety

Psychology Today-What to know and what to do-Noelle McWard LCSW

In a previous post, “What is Your Anxiety Type?”, I described three types of anxiety, each with unique characteristics, ways in which anxiety seeks to remain in control when challenged, and solutions. Knowing your anxiety type can help you understand your anxiety in a new way, and to apply strategies best suited to address the underlying issue being expressed through your anxiety.

There are also five universal truths of anxiety, always present, regardless of your anxiety type. Within these universal truths lies important information to better understand the nature of anxiety and skills to practice when feeling anxious. 

Anxiety is an innate biological response to perceived danger and serves the essential function of keeping you safe. It is controlled by the amygdala, a cluster of cells located in the most primitive part of the brain. The amygdala has one job: to look for signs of danger.

When danger is detected, the amygdala releases hormones, one of which becomes adrenaline. Adrenaline causes, amongst other things, increased heart rate, shallow breathing and stimulated sweat glands. These functions prepare your body to fight off or flee from danger by supplying your large muscles with fuel and energy. This is commonly known as the fight, flight or freeze response. When the amygdala is activated your mind hyperfocuses on the perceived danger, and blocks access to parts of your prefrontal cortex responsible for higher-level thinking and meaning making in order to focus your mental resources solely on your survival. This is responsible for the “irrational thinking” that often accompanies anxiety. 

You likely recognize the physical symptoms of anxiety, caused by the physiological response to perceived danger. Anxiety impacts your emotional, cognitive and biological functioning. The five universal truths of anxiety address important facts for you to understand about all three impacts of anxiety.

1. Breathing is essential. 

The physical symptoms of anxiety are the result of the physiologically aroused state triggered by the release of adrenaline into your system. When in a physiologically aroused anxiety state, the most effective way to calm the body’s biological response is through deep breathing. It is physiologically impossible for your body to remain in an aroused state while doing deep breathing.

There are a number of breathing patterns scientifically proven to calm the physiological arousal of anxiety. The key to effective breathing is a slow, prolonged exhale.

Two highly effective breathing patterns are the 4-7-8 technique and box breathing.

The 4-7-8 technique involves inhaling through your nose for the count of 4, holding your breath for the count of 7 and exhaling through pursed lips for the count of 8. Repeat this pattern for as long as is necessary to lower the physical symptoms of anxiety.

For box breathing, inhale for the count of 4, hold your breath for the count of 4, exhale for the count of 4 and then again hold your breath for the count of 4. Repeat this breathing pattern until you have achieved a state of calm.

2. Your mind can hold only one thought at a time. 

While your thoughts may quickly jump from one thought to another, your mind can hold only one thought at a time. If it is focused on an anxiety provoking thought, such as “I am scared”, “This is terrible”, or “Something bad is going to happen” you will feel anxious. If your mind is focused on a neutral or calming thought, such as “I am safe”, “I can handle this”, or “I will figure this out”, you will feel calm or calmer. Therefore, focusing on neutral or calming thoughts will lower your anxiety.

Additionally, using calming strategies such as listening to music, podcasts, or guided meditations can help lower anxiety by giving your mind something soothing or positively distracting to engage with.

3. Avoidance is a common response to anxiety.

A nearly universal response to anxiety is to avoid the source of your anxiety. If you are anxious about not having enough money, you may avoid looking at your bank account. If you fear having a difficult conversation you may avoid it. While the impulse to do this is understandable, it never helps. Avoidance is nothing more than prolonged suffering disguised as safety. At best it heightens your anxiety and at worst it turns a feared outcome into a real problem.

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The only way through anxiety is to step into it. You cannot overcome anxiety from a distance. You must step into the thing that makes you anxious and tolerate the resulting discomfort to get to the other side of it.

To differentiate distraction from avoidance, avoidance is to hide from the source of your anxiety. Distraction is a tool you can utilize when stepping into your anxiety to help you tolerate the discomfort you will inevitably feel. If you are afraid of flying, avoidance would be to never fly. Distraction would be to use soothing mantras and listening to podcasts while flying to lessen and better tolerate your anxious feelings. The fear of flying, like all anxiety, can only be overcome by exposing yourself to the thing you fear.

4. In emotionally charged situations, your mind will make up stories. The stories will rarely reflect the truth.

The human mind is uncomfortable with uncertainty. It constantly makes up stories in a futile effort to know the unknown. When you are in an emotionally charged situation, around the things you do not know (what someone else is thinking, feeling or why they are behaving in a way you can observe) your mind will make up a story to fill in the blanks. The story will be a reflection of your greatest fear or vulnerability. And it will almost never be an accurate reflection of what is true.

The distress you feel will likely come more from the story your mind has created than from the facts you know in any given situation. When in an emotionally charged situation, around the distress you are feeling, check to see if your distress is based in fact, or the story you have created. Refocus your thoughts and energy only on what you know to be true.

5. There is a constant interplay between thoughts, feelings and behavior. Feelings are always the last to change.

At all times, there is an interplay between your thoughts, feelings and behaviors; each influencing the others. Feelings are always the most powerful. Changing one will change the other two. While you can choose your thoughts and behaviors, you cannot as easily choose your feelings. Feelings do not work that way. When has it ever been helpful to be told, “Just don’t feel that way?” or “Why don’t you feel this way instead?” 

When seeking to change your feelings, you must first change your thoughts and actions. You will have to do so while still feeling your uncomfortable feelings. You cannot wait for the feelings to change first. But know that by changing your thoughts and actions to align with the desired feeling, the feeling will follow.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/unpacking-anxiety/202310/the-5-universal-truths-of-anxiety