Category Archives: Daily Top Ten

Topley’s Top 10 – September 26, 2022

1. Dow Industrials and Dow Transports Break Previous Lows.

Dow also closes below 200 week moving average on long-term chart

Transports close below 200 week moving average

www.stockcharts.com


2. S&P and Nasdaq Right on Previous Lows

S&P about to break to new lows….Still above 200 week moving average in red

Nasdaq Composite above previous low but broke 200 week moving average

www.stockcharts.com


3. The FED is Hiking Faster and Further than Anytime in History

Chartr Blog The Fed’s 3×3-This week the Federal Reserve signed off on its third consecutive three-quarter point rate hike, lifting the benchmark federal funds rate to a range of 3-3.25%.

That’s an unprecedented pace of rate-rises in modern history, signaling the Fed’s strong resolve to get double-digit inflation under control. No other hiking cycle has started this steeply since the Fed started targeting the Effective Funds Rate in the 1980s.

www.chartr.com


4. VIX-Volatility Index Still Trading Below May 2022 Levels.

VIX still below $30….50day still trading below 200day


5. Airlines JETS ETF…..JETS Hits Mid-2020 Lows

www.stockcharts.com


6. Millennials Dumping ….Majority sold some or all of their investments

From Callum Thomas Chart Storm Generational Selling Opportunity:  Intriguing statistics. Seems just about every millennial sold some or all of their investments. Could have to do with life stages, but hard to guess what is specifically driving this. The other key thing that sticks out in this chart is that aside from millennials, everyone else has held tight. That gels with my previous observations about the difference between very bearish surveys vs relatively minor movement in equity allocations and margin positions.

Source:  @justLBell

https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-25-september


7. Elections Have Little Effect on Long-Term Returns-Capital Group

https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/midterm-elections-markets-5-charts.html?sfid=1988901890&cid=80830362&et_cid=80830362&cgsrc=SFMC&alias=F-btn-LP-18-A3cta-Advisor


8. Zillow-Monthly Mortgage Payments +58% Year Over Year

https://www.zillow.com/research/august-2022-market-report-31425/


9. Following All the “Disappearing” Russian Executives.

Zerohedge Blog Mysterious Deaths of Four Gazprom Executives

On Feb. 25, Gazprom executive Alexander Tyulakov was found hanged in a garage near St. Petersburg. Tyulyakov was Gazprom’s Deputy General Director of the Unified Settlement Center (UCC) for Corporate Security. Police and the company’s security department arrived at the scene almost immediately after the incident.

In late January, Leonid Shulman, head of the company’s investment and transportation services, was found dead in his bathroom with multiple stab wounds. Rusian media reported that a note was found next to him, stating that he couldn’t bear the pain from a leg injury.

On April 18, Vladimir Avayev, former vice president of Gazprombank, his wife and 13-year-old daughter were found dead in their Moscow apartment.

Investigators say Avayev, 51, killed his wife and daughter before taking his own life. His older daughter, 22, reportedly said that the door to the apartment was locked from the inside and there was no sign that anyone else was present at the time of the shooting.

However, people who contacted Avayev shortly before his death said he had been in a good mood and did not seem likely to shoot his family to death. Shortly thereafter, the company’s two other senior executives were found dead in a mansion compound near St. Petersburg.

In addition to these four deaths, in July, Yuri Voronov, the founder of Astra-Shipping, a transportation and logistics company and a contractor for Gazprom’s arctic projects, was found dead in the pool of his luxury villa outside St. Petersburg, shot in the head at close range.

In addition to the theory that the top executives knew too much about fraud, some suspect they were murdered because they opposed the Russia–Ukraine war, although none of them had publicly denounced Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/drowning-russian-executive-latest-string-mysterious-deaths


10. The Most Practical Skill in Life is Learning to Do Things when you don’t Feel Like Doing Them

Farnam Street Blog Tiny Thought

My high school football coach used to run us like crazy after a bad game. While I’m sure these tactics wouldn’t be accepted today, the lessons I learned in these moments still help me when things are hard.

The most practical skill in life is learning to do things when you don’t feel like doing them. Anyone can do it when it’s easy, but most people drop out the minute easy stops.

Muhammad Ali was asked how many sit-ups would do to prepare for a fight. His reply: “I don’t count my sit-ups. I only start counting when it starts hurting. When I feel pain, that’s when I start counting, because that’s when it really counts.” True to Ali’s mindset, our coach would only start counting the sprints when people started falling over.

Inevitably someone on the team would say they wanted to quit. The coach would shout back a bunch of things that can’t be repeated, but he’d finish with “If you really want to quit, you can quit tomorrow, but you can’t quit today.”

No one ever quit the next day.

The person who is consistent outperforms the person who is intermittent every time. While inconsistent effort works for some things, for the things that really matter you need to be consistent. If you want to be consistent, you need strategies to keep you going when things are hard.

The key to doing something you know you should do when you don’t feel like doing it is telling yourself that you can quit tomorrow but not today.

https://fs.blog

Topley’s Top 10 – September 23, 2022

1. 88% of High Grade Bonds Trading Below Par….Highest Number Since 2008 Crisis

Advisor Perspectives Blog—JP Morgan-About 88% of high-grade bonds in a Bloomberg index are trading below par through Tuesday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That compares to just 4% a year ago, highlighting the destruction on fixed-income returns wrought by inflation and a historically aggressive Federal Reserve rate-hike program.

“We’re seeing the bonds across the board, across all of our portfolios, trading at big discounts to par and as you know as long as they don’t default, they end up back at par,” Collins, PGIM senior portfolio manager, said on Bloomberg Television. “So you have this really positive long-term opportunity in fixed-income which we haven’t had in well over a decade.”

JPMorgan, PGIM Say It’s Time to Buy High-Grade Bonds With 88% Trading at Discount by Katie Greifeld  JPMorgan, PGIM Say It’s Time to Buy High-Grade Bonds With 88% Trading at Discount – Articles – Advisor Perspectives


2. Bonds Making New Lows Before Stocks….LQD-Corporate Grade Bond ETF Breaks to New Lows …

See 50-week blue line thru 200-week red line

www.stockcharts.com


3. Not Sure If It Matters with Rates Rising at this Pace but……Here is History of Stock Returns Following Mid-Term Cycle.

Dorsey Wright-As we are often reminded, past performance is not indicative of future results. However, the historical tendencies of past presidencies do point toward the potential for stronger returns following the mid-term election cycle. The third year of a presidential term shows an average gain of 13.51%, with year three showing a positive return in 18 of the 24 instances examined. In fact, Q4 of year two and Q1 of year three show the best back-to-back averages of any two quarters, with each averaging a gain of more than 5%.

https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright


4. Sentiment Trader…American Public at Record Bearishness

Found at Abnormal Returns Blog www.abnormalreturns.com


5. But Sentiment has not Shown Up in Mass Selling Yet …Fidelity Outflows

@TimmerFidelity

https://twitter.com/TimmerFidelity


6. Institutions and Hedge Funds Also Positioned Bearish

Bloomberg-ByMichael Msika Another gauge, CFTC’s S&P 500 net non-commercial futures, also shows an extremely negative view, having reached levels last seen during the downturns of 2008, 2011, 2015 and 2020. Such bleak sentiment is often seen as a contrarian indicator, flagging a rebound.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-21/equity-gloom-to-give-way-to-post-fed-bounce-if-history-is-right?sref=GGda9y2L


7. QQQ Nasdaq 100 Official Previous Low $272…Hold or Break?

www.stockcharts.com


8. Lithium Rises 4x in One Year

WSJ By Joe Wallace and Hardika Singh Surging prices for lithium are intensifying a race between auto makers to lock up supplies and raising concerns that a shortage of the battery metal could slow the adoption of electric vehicles.

Lithium carbonate prices in China, the benchmark in the fast-growing market, stand at about $71,000 a metric ton, according to price-assessment firm Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. That is almost four times as high as a year ago and just below the record set this March in yuan terms.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/electric-car-demand-pushes-lithium-prices-to-records-11663749409?mod=itp_wsj&ru=yahoo


9. Despite pandemic, U.S. Latinos’ output eclipses U.K. and India GDPs

Axios Russell Contreras

Data:LDC U.S. Latino GDP Report; Chart: Tory Lysik/Axios

The total economic output of U.S. Latinos reached $2.8 trillion in 2020, surpassing the GDPs of the U.K. and India, according to a report released Thursday.

Why it matters: The report showed U.S. Latino buying power and economic output grew during the pandemic despite the disproportional impact it had on Latino communities, Russell writes.

By the numbers: The report showed U.S. Latino GDP grew 65% from 2010, when it was $1.7 trillion, to 2020.

  • In 2020, Latinos spent $1.84 trillion, representing a consumption market larger than the entire economies of Canada or South Korea, the report said.

Details: The study by the Latino Donor Collaborative, a non-profit organization researching Latino issues was unveiled Thursday at the L’attitude conference in San Diego.

  • That’s likely due to a strong workforce that rebounded quickly despite a disproportionate rate of infections, the report says.
  • Pay in low-wage positions like hospitality and service jobs — in which Latinos are overrepresented — also grew over the last couple of years as businesses struggled to find workers.

What they’re saying: “Latinos have proven to be a tremendous source of resilience for the broader U.S. economy, even in the face of a one-in-a-century global crisis such as COVID-19,” the report’s authors wrote.

  • “The performance of Latinos during the pandemic is exemplified by income data. From 2010 to 2020, Latinos enjoyed significantly higher wage and salary income growth than non-Latinos,” they added.

Go deeper: Report: U.S. Latino GDP tied with France, greater than Italy in 2019

Subscribe to Axios Latino to get vital news about Latinos and Latin America, delivered to your inbox on Tuesdays and Thursdays.

https://www.axios.com/2022/09/22/gdp-latino-2020-pandemic-uk-india


10. 5 Rejected Shark Tank Companies That Are Crushing It

 Ryan Peck

People love success stories, especially when the road to success was not smooth and assured. It’s those businesses that rise through rejections and adversity that make us realize that we, too, can take our businesses to new heights.

This is true even when people may not believe in these companies right now.

Consider companies that were ultimately rejected on the television show Shark Tank, for example. At first blush, it might look like a failure. However, some of those companies are doing remarkably well today. Let’s look at five of these businesses and see what lessons they hold.

1. Copa Di Vino

This is one of the most successful rejects from Shark Tank. The founder, James Martin, went on the show twice, but he never received an offer. The idea was relatively simple and something that should have been thought of years ago—sell wine by the glass rather than by the bottle: offering pre packaged glasses of wine, sold in recycled plastic containers. It now has a value of more than $25 million.

2. BedJet

When Mark Aramli went on Shark Tank and pitched BedJet, he was quickly rejected by everyone on the show. His invention was a fan system for under the sheets to keep everything cool. The Sharks were not impressed, and Aramli said  “They hated me and my product. They told me no one would ever want BedJet.”

However, that didn’t turn out to be true. He used his own money to fund the project rather than relying on investors. Within just a couple of years, his company is estimated to be valued at $16 million.

“Building a business is little more than a series of quick opportunities followed by a big a series of big obstacles. The opportunities arrive and leave so quickly that they’re way too easy to miss. If I hadn’t quit my job on a stranger’s suggestion the moment I heard it, I would have probably thought about it and not done it. Every great decision I’ve made in business since was made exactly that way — quickly without any thought. I’ve learned that thought gets in the way.” – Barbara Corcoran

3. Xero Shoes

Lena Phoenix learned that even though there wasn’t any additional investment money after appearing on Shark Tank in 2013, the publicity did wonders. After the show aired, there were an additional 3,000 orders for their sandals. Within a few years, the company has made more than $7 million in sales and has many customers around the world. They also set up a crowdfunding plan offering shares to investors, which provided them with money to expand

4. Nerdwax

This is a cleverly named product that can be helpful for anyone who has glasses that keep sliding off their nose. Enter Nerdwax, a wax that can be applied onto the nose pads of eyeglasses, which then help them to stay on the wearer’s face. It’s a simple product and seems like one that a lot of people with glasses would appreciate.

However, the Sharks did not believe that people would be willing to pay $10 per tube for this product. The idea was quickly rejected, but the owners now report more than $1 million in sales.

5. Ring

Most people today have heard of Ring but might not realize that it was originally called DoorBot and that it was a reject from Shark Tank. The creator, Jamie Siminoff, invented the security camera, which he says was worth about $7 million at the time of his appearance on the show in 2013. He didn’t get any traction from the Sharks as they all turned his idea down. However, just a few years later the company was bought by Amazon for $1 What You Should Take from These Stories

You will note that all the ideas that went on to become successful were sound ideas with fully-fledged products/services. They weren’t just a dream and an idea—the creators had already put a lot of time and effort into creating working products.

Just because they weren’t offered a deal, or at least not an agreeable deal, from the Sharks doesn’t mean that the business wasn’t viable. These owners had some of the most business savvy minds in the world reject their ideas and told them they would fail, but that wasn’t the case.

You will want to consider the types of products that were successful. They all focus on needs or wants—ways to make life better, easier, or safer. The products were helping to make real changes.

One of the most important lessons to learn from this is to believe in what you are doing. If you know there is an audience, if you can make the product affordably, and sell it for a profit, you can find success.

Believe in yourself and your products. Don’t let the doubters and naysayers dictate your future and steal your success.

Don’t let setbacks or lack of faith from potential investors keep you from your path to success.

 https://addicted2success.com/success-advice/5-rejected-shark-tank-companies-that-are-crushing-it/

Topley’s Top 10 – September 22, 2022

1. S&P 500 Approaching the Re-Test of Lows

S&P 500 Rolling Over to June Lows

$364 was low on the SPY S&P 500 ETF

www.stockcharts.com


2. Risk Appetite Lowest Since 2000 Internet Bubble.

https://twitter.com/GameofTrades


3. China Large Cap Breaks Previous Lows.

FXI China ETF makes new 2022 lows


4. China Ownership of U.S. Treasuries 14% of Total Down to 4%

From Irrelevant Investor Blog

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2022/09/21/animal-spirits-is-a-recession-bullish/


5. Commodity ETF COMT -20% Correction from Highs.

COMT trading below 200day

www.stockcharts.com


6. Two-Year Treasury Yield 4% for the First Time Since 2007

See top of chart RSI well overbought.


7. In Case Anyone Missed It Yesterday…….AGG (bond index) Outperformed BSV Short-term Bonds by 40 basis points in One Day

Longer Duration Outperformed Yesterday

www.yahoofinance.com


8. Euro Area GDP Growth….

Jim Reid-Deutsche Bank

The energy crisis in Europe means that 2023 will likely be behind only 2009 and 2020 as the worst year for the European economy since WWII. Today’s CoTD shows that DB expect Germany to see -3.5% GDP growth in 2022 and France at -1.2%. We expect euro area GDP to be at -2.2%.

These are pretty bleak numbers with Germany being most exposed to the gas shock. Even with voluntary gas use reduction, which is already hitting growth, the likelihood is that rationing in some form or another will have to come in before the end of winter.

See our economists’ latest views here in a big piece out today.

In addition, Adrian Cox in my team has put together an Energy Crisis 101 presentation pack today to look at the context on why it’s happened, what’s being done about it and what comes next. This is part of a new series where we are going to try to distil topics of great importance to financial markets to a generalist audience. Please see here for more and feel free to suggest future topics we can explore in this series.


9. American Congress 23% Over 70-Chartr Blog

New age

Congress could gain its first Gen Z member in January, as 25-year-old Maxwell Frost — a young Democrat backed by Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and other stalwarts of the DC scene — looks likely to fill a reliably-blue Floridian seat in the House.

President Biden, who would be 55 years older than Frost by the time the 118th Congress is sworn in, has fended off questions about his age throughout his tenure, most recently in an interview with 60 Minutes. However, the President isn’t the only politician in Washington who would feel old in the Gen Zer’s company.

Elder law 

Data compiled by Insider, and visualized above, shows how dramatically Congress has aged in recent years. A stunning 23% of Congress’ members are now over 70 years old, compared to twenty years ago when just 8% of legislators were 70+. If they keep their seats in November, two members would even turn 90 whilst serving in Congress next year.

With midterms just around the corner (8th of November) and POTUS’s 80th birthday not far behind, discourse around America’s aging congresspeople is getting louder — with a CBS poll showing remarkable bipartisan support for age limits of elected officials.

Go deeper: Insider’s Red, White, and Gray series is a thorough exploration of America’s gerontocracy.

www.chartr.com


10. Mark Cuban Says the Worst Career Advice Is ‘Follow Your Passion.’ What Should You Do Instead?

Turns out it’s something you already do. You just need to turn it up a notch.

BY JEFF HADEN, CONTRIBUTING EDITOR, INC.@JEFF_HADEN

Ask just about any motivational speaker or career expert. Or ask Steve Jobs:  As the Apple co-founder once said, “You’ve got to find what you love. The only way to do great work is to love what you do. If you haven’t found it yet, keep looking.”  

Most people believe passion comes first.

But not Mark Cuban. When Adam Grant asked him if there was a “worst piece of career advice you’ve gotten,” Cuban said:

Follow your passion? No.

Follow your effort. No one quits anything they’re good at.

While passion can spark effort, the reverse is more often true. Effort, and the improvement that results, creates passion. Do something poorly? You probably dread doing it. Do something well? You enjoy it — and the better you get, the more you like doing it.

Science agrees, especially where starting a business is concerned. According to a study published in Academy of Management Journal, the more effort entrepreneurs put into their startups or side hustles, the more enthusiastic they get about their businesses

Morningbrew CRIME

47 charged in massive $250m Covid fraud scheme

As startup founders gain skill, expertise, and experience, their enthusiasm grows — with or without early financial success. Effort, and resulting improvement, creates passion.

Not the other way around. 

‘Follow Your Passion’ Can Be Disastrous

It’s easy to confuse a hobby or interest for a passion, especially one that will result in career or business fulfillment. Rarely is that type of preexisting passion valuable. 

As Cal Newport writes in So Good They Can’t Ignore You: Why Skills Trump Passion in the Search for Work You Love, “Telling someone to follow their passion can be disastrous. That advice has probably resulted in more failed businesses than all the recessions combined, because that’s not how the vast majority of people end up owning successful businesses.”

That’s because most passions indicate interest, not effort. Plenty of people — maybe you’re one of them — are passionate about sports. Or adventure. Or travel. I enjoy motor sports, and I really like driving — or riding — fast.

But how much effort do you, or I, put into that passion? How much effort do we put into improving our talent, our knowledge, and our skills? In my case, not a lot. Passion only indicates interest.

Instead, ‘Follow Your Effort’

Passion is nearly always the result of significant time and effort, because effort leads to improvement and expertise. 

As Cuban wrote on his blog in 2012:

There are a lot of things I am passionate about. [But] the things I ended up being really good at were the things I found myself putting effort into. A lot of people talk about passion, but that’s really not what you need to focus on.

… when you look at where you put in your time, where you put in your effort, that tends to be the things that you are good at. And if you put in enough time, you tend to get really good at it.

If you put in enough time, and you get really good, I will give you a little secret: Nobody quits anything they are good at, because it is fun to be good. It is fun to be one of the best. 

But in order to be one of the best, you have to put in effort.

What you do in your spare time — not passively experience, but actively do — clearly indicates an interest. As Cuban would say, you’re already putting in the effort. 

So follow that effort. Every highly skilled person started learning, and then benefited from the virtuous cycle of effort and achievement: Effort leads to achievement, however small. Achievement feels good. Feeling good motivates you to put in more effort, leading to more achievement, more motivation, more effort–the result is a never-ending virtuous cycle.

Follow your effort, and place a little more structure around the process of improving, learning, and growing. The more effort you put in, the more enthusiastic you will get. The more passionate you will become. The more likely you will be to develop the talent and experience required to turn a passion into a new business or career. 

One where passion is not required, because in time you’ll realize you’re doing what you love. 

Even if it didn’t start as a passion.

Mark Cuban Says the Worst Career Advice Is ‘Follow Your Passion.’ What Should You Do Instead? | Inc.com\

Topley’s Top 10 – September 20, 2022

1. Ten-Year Treasury Yield Moves to Levels Last Seen in 2011

www.stockcharts.com


2. Stock/Bond Ratio Blows Past Modern Day Highs…S&P 500 divided by the U.S. Long-Term Treasury Bond Index

From Callum Thomas Chart Storm—Stock/Bond Ratio:  Wild.

Kind of speaks for itself, but to spell it out: equities are extremely stretched vs bonds. I suspect this will reverse eventually, and most likely when recession hits, inflation falls, and bonds finally start to fight back.

Source:  @AtlasPulse


3. One Short-Term Indicator Put/Call Ratio at Hit Extreme Levels

Sentiment continues to be the best feature of this market (for bulls). Friday’s equity put/call ratio $SPX got thru our threshold level, matched only by the levels seen at the June lows. Momentum and trends are not supportive, but positioning appears to be.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeffrey-degraaf-cmt-cfa/


4. Used Car Price Index Implodes Below Covid Levels….Another Inflation Easing Measure.

https://twitter.com/charliebilello


5. Energy Cost as a Percentage of GDP Europe and World

https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno


6. Germany Gas Storage 80% Full

Business Insider -Zahra Tayeb The race to shore up energy supplies looks to be going well, as German officials said the country’s natural gas storage has reached 80% full and is on track to meet its October storage targets early.

Germany lines up natural gas deals with Qatar and the UAE as it scrambles to replace Russian supplies

Zahra Tayeb 

3 minutes ago

Germany is racing to secure natural gas before winter hits as Russian supplies dry up. LOIC VENANCE/Getty Images

  • Germany is stacking up natural gas deals with Qatar and the UAE as Russia cuts off supply. 
  • It’s aiding the shift by releasing $2.5 billion of credit to inject into alternative gas supplies. 
  • “The gas offering is slowly broadening,” Germany’s economy minister told Reuters. 

Germany is closing in on natural gas deals with Qatar and the United Arab Emirates as it seeks to replace Russian energy, according to media reports. 

To facilitate such deals, the crisis-deep country released $2.5 billion to secure alternative gas supplies before winter hits, Bloomberg reported

German utilities RWE and Uniper are nearing an agreement on long-term deals to buy liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar’s North Field Expansion project, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

The talks between Germany and Qatar have been riddled with differences over the length of contracts and pricing, but a settlement is expected to be reached soon, Reuters reported. 

Zahra Tayeb 

3 minutes ag

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/europe-energy-crisis-germany-natural-gas-deals-qatar-uae-russia-2022-9


7. Improvement in Air Pollution Since 1990

Food for Thought: Lastly, here’s a look at declines in air pollution since 199

https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-september-19th-2022/


8. Wells Fargo Housing Market Index Hits 2006 Levels

Wolf Street Blog-The confidence of builders of single-family houses fell again in September, the ninth month in a row of declines, “as the combination of elevated interest rates, persistent building material supply chain disruptions, and high home prices continue to take a toll on affordability,” the NAHB report said.

With today’s index value of 46, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index is now below where it had been in May 2006, on the way down into the Housing Bust.

by Wolf Richter  https://wolfstreet.com/2022/09/19/housing-bubble-woes-home-builders-cut-prices-pile-on-incentives-amid-plunging-traffic-of-buyers-spiking-cancellations-holy-moly-mortgage-rates/


9. Quant Driven Home Buying Lost Money on 42% of Flips

Bloomberg-The slump has been especially harsh for Opendoor Technologies Inc., pioneer of a data-driven spin on home-flipping known as iBuying.

The iBuying model relies on acquiring homes, making light repairs and reselling the properties — often within a few months of the initial purchase. When home prices were skyrocketing earlier in the year, Opendoor banked easy profits. Then dwindling affordability and mortgage rates soaring toward 6% this spring finally pushed would-be buyers to the sidelines.

The company, which sells thousands of homes in a typical month, lost money on 42% of its transactions in August, according to research from YipitData. Opendoor’s performance — as measured by the prices at which it bought and sold properties — was even worse in key markets such as Los Angeles, where the company lost money on 55% of sales, and Phoenix, where the share was 76%.

By Patrick Clark and Elizabeth Kane https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-19/home-flipper-opendoor-hit-with-losses-in-echo-of-zillow-collapse?srnd=premium&sref=GGda9y2L


10. The More Senior Your Job Title, the More You Need to Keep a Journal

by Dan Ciampa

Summary.   Being a CEO can be a lonely job–there is no obvious person in whom to confide. Keeping a journal can fill that void, by giving a new leader a chance for structured reflection of recent past events and decisions, and mental rehearsal for future ones. Despite the…more

For leaders assuming the CEO title for the first time, taking time to learn and think translates into early successes. But the problem is there’s little time to do either. Information comes at them more quickly, more people than ever before demand their time, and they’re told that the myriad decisions piled in front of them are all important.

If hired from outside, there is a new culture to get used to and it’s not clear who to trust. Even when promoted from inside, the pace can be jarring compared to running a division in the same company. In both cases, any new leader must manage intense exposure (as it sinks in that top leaders have few places to escape to) and unrealistic expectations (of both self and others).

There is nothing new leaders can do to avoid these problems completely. All they can control is how they react to them. Because we tend to make mistakes when things speed up, especially when in unfamiliar territory, it can make all the difference to find ways to slow things down.

The French philosopher Blaise Pascal pointed out that “All of humanity’s problems come from man’s inability to sit quietly in a room alone.” He didn’t mean sitting quietly in front of a laptop responding to emails. The best thinking comes from structured reflection — and the best way to do that is keeping a personal journal.

I started keeping a journal when I took over a manufacturing research, software, and consulting firm. I was very young, we were in crisis facing a challenging market, and I wasn’t sure whom I could rely on. I kept a journal through my 12 years as chairman and CEO and have since recommended it to people moving into any senior position for the first time.

There’s strong evidence that replaying events in our brain is essential to learning. While the brain records and holds what takes place in the moment, the learning from what one has gone through — that is, determining what is important and what lessons should be learned — happens after the fact during periods of quiet reflection.

Also, when we slow things down and reflect, we can be more creative about solving seemingly inscrutable problems. Take, for example, a technique called the “second solution method” that I’ve used in the past. If a group was struggling to come up with options to solve a tough problem, we would brainstorm to identify a list of possible solutions. Before switching to prioritizing, making items specific, etc., we tried to identify all possible options. I found the best approach was to tell the group to take a break and when it reconvened to ask, “What else occurs to you?” Inevitably, this simple question resulted in about 50% more items, often of higher quality. By experimenting, I found that the break that took place between the first and second rounds was more important than the question. A journal is an effective, efficient, private way to take a similar break.

Journal entries should provide not only a record of what happened but how we reacted emotionally; writing it down brings a certain clarity that puts things in perspective. In other cases, it’s a form of mental rehearsal to prepare for particularly sensitive issues where there’s no one to talk with but yourself. Journals can also be the best way to think through big-bet decisions and test one’s logic.

While personality, style, and situation cause different approaches, some guidelines have proven useful for the best results. Notes should be made as soon as possible after an event from which one wants to learn—ideally the same day. Waiting more than 24 hours seems to sacrifice specificity about details that made the most difference and why they happened.

An entry should begin with the primary outcome — the headline that best captures the major result. Then, list the essential reason for that outcome; an always-subtle root cause made apparent by asking “why?” five times to peel back each layer, revealing what came before. (I remember reviewing my journal once and realized that several big-bet decisions turned on the right question asked at just the right point in the debates. Fortunately, my notes were in enough detail that they showed that the same subordinate asked the right question each time. I started listening to him much more closely). Third, recall the emotions that affected decision making and why they flared. Last, identify what you can learn from the whole experience and what you can do differently next time.

Many will opt to keep a journal on their computer or iPad. While that may be more efficient, the point of keeping a journal is not efficiency but to reflect and slow things down so that learning is maximized. For that purpose, handwriting may work better. The novelist Paul Theroux has said that he writes long-hand because, “The speed with which I write with a pen seems to be the speed with which my imagination finds the best… words.” He noted a 2011 Newsweek article that said, “Brain scans show that handwriting engages more sections of the brain than typing [and] it’s easier to remember something once you’ve written it down on paper.”

With so many benefits of keeping a journal, why do so few leaders do it?

  • It takes time, a most precious asset. Because a journal requires reflection, it’s best done during quiet periods, which are rare for any leader.
  • Sometimes, keeping a journal requires reliving something one would just as soon forget. Even though a vital step in learning, it’s unpleasant.
  • Because many leaders prefer to rapidly move on to the next challenge, reflection is not high on their list of things they enjoy or have much experience with.
  • Like any tool, it takes time to perfect the best way to use it. The methodology offered here did not happen right away, but came after many trials and errors.

These are minor drawbacks compared to the benefits. Slowing things down leads to better-thought-through, more effective judgement and to learning what to do more of and what to change. One result, as important as anything, is an increase in the satisfaction that should come from being in charge. A personal journal should be part of any leader’s toolkit.

https://hbr.org/2017/07/the-more-senior-your-job-title-the-more-you-need-to-keep-a-journal?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=hbr&utm_source=LinkedIn&tpcc=orgsocial_edit

Topley’s Top 10 – September 19, 2022

1. Dow Transports Break Below Summer Lows

Transports break below July lows

Transports approaching 200 week moving average on long-term chart

 www.stockcharts.com


2. EFA Developed International Markets Trades Back to 2020 Levels

Developed International trading below 200 week moving average erases 2 years of gains ….Europe just getting started raising rates

 www.stockcharts.com


3. Record Low Allocation to Eurozone Markets

Callum Thomas Chart Storm Exiting the Eurozone:  Allocations to Eurozone equities dropped to a record low in the latest BofA fund manager survey. Europe is basically the epicenter of the 2022 macro meltdown, so we should expect this – maybe we can call it rational fear (but at some point it becomes irrational (and a source of opportunity)).

Source:  @HumbleStudent

https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-18-september


4. Emerging Markets Similar Chart….Back to 2020 Levels.

EEM-Emerging markets …watch for 50week moving average (blue) to cross below 200 week average (red)

 www.stockcharts.com


5. TWLO another Covid Favorite Announces Layoffs

$425 to $73…clear 50 week thru 200 week to downside.

www.stockcharts.com


6. Blackrock 60/40 Chart Re-Testing 200 Week Moving Average

www.stockcharts.com


7. U.S. Household Wealth Fell by Record in Second Quarter….$6.1 Trillion…Stocks, Bonds, Real Estate All Down Together

Sept 9 (Reuters) – U.S. household wealth fell by a record $6.1 trillion in the second quarter to its lowest in a year as a bear market in stocks far outweighed further gains in real estate values, a Federal Reserve report showed on Friday.

Household net worth tumbled to $143.8 trillion at the end of June from $149.9 trillion at the end of March, its second consecutive quarterly decline, the Fed’s quarterly snapshot of the national balance sheet showed. Through June, Americans’ collective wealth had fallen by more than $6.2 trillion from a record $150 trillion at the end of 2021.

The net drop in wealth in the second quarter was about $30 billion larger than the previous record decline notched two years earlier, as the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic upended financial markets. That decline – in the second quarter of 2020 – still stands as the largest on a percentage basis at 5.2% versus 4.1% in the most recent report.

The latest fall was led by a $7.7 trillion decline in stock market values as equities slid into a bear market in the first half of the year on worries about surging inflation and the Fed’s aggressive response with interest rate increases. The equity market drop outstripped a $1.4 trillion gain in real estate values.

Total nonfinancial debt rose at a 6.5% annualized rate after rising at an 8.3% rate in the first quarter, the Fed data showed. Household debt growth also slowed to a 7.4% annual rate from 8.3% in the first three months of the year, while business, federal, state and local government debt levels all rose.

Reporting by Dan Burns; Editing by Paul Simao and Bill Berkrot

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-household-wealth-falls-again-second-quarter-fed-says-2022-09-09/


8. Lowest World Population Growth Since 1950

From Advisors Perspective Blog-The world’s population continues to grow, but the pace of growth has slowed to a rate of under one percent, a pace not seen since 1950. The populations of 61 nations are projected to decrease by 1% or more between now and 2050.

The Decline of Demographicsby Vaibhav Tandon, Ryan James Boyle of Northern Trust,

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/09/16/the-decline-of-demographics


9. Inflation Causing Hardship Across Working and Middle Class

https://www.statista.com/chart/26334/effect-of-price-increases-on-the-financial-situation-of-households/


10. Getting Through Any Obstacle in Life

An agile mind will help you push forward.

Elaine Fox Ph.D.

The world can feel like an uncertain place. Unless we can learn to live with not being sure, it’s very easy for us to become overwhelmed. What my research in psychology and neuroscience has taught me is that getting used to the intrinsic uncertainty of the world is essential for success: the people who thrive are those with the ability to accept and adapt to constant change and uncertainty.

The good news is that we can improve our ability to adapt. It takes practice and we often need to push ourselves outside our comfort zone. I managed to overcome my reluctance to speak in public and adapted over time to the demands of being an academic psychologist.

Harnessing the benefits of an agile mind can be transformative. It’s important to remember that we are active stewards of our own well-being, rather than passive victims of change and so we must actively manage our approach to life. Our natural skills of agility are necessary to help us navigate a complex and unpredictable world. I have seen time and again how developing an agile mindset—the capacity to flex our thoughts, feelings, and actions—can transform our lives and bolster our resilience

Maintaining a flexible mind allows us to thrive amid change. The first step is to accept that change and uncertainty are an inescapable part of life. Our lives will change, many times, sometimes for the better, sometimes for the worse. It is how we navigate those shifts that shape our present and our future happiness. If you are reluctant to change, or wary of trying out new things, this is something you need to work on.

Whether it is coping with a difficult boss, managing a complex team, dealing with hyperactive children, resolving a dispute with a friend, or boosting your energy, you need an internal compass that helps you choose the right strategy for the moment. If this compass is off even slightly, you can veer a long way from your course. Here are four important ideas that will point you in the right direction as you navigate your way through life.

  • Mental agility: The capacity to be agile and nimble in how you think, act, and feel so that you can navigate your way through all sorts of terrain, the rough as well as the smooth, and adapt well to changing circumstances. The science shows that agility is made up of four distinct components—what I call the “ABCD of agility,” adaptability, balancing our life, changing or challenging our perspective, and developing our mental competence.
  • Self-awareness: An ability to look inside yourself so that you can gain a deep self-understanding and appreciation of your core values. This will help you become more aware of your hopes, dreams, and abilities.
  • Emotional awareness: Part of self-awareness, but so important in our lives that it becomes a pillar of its own. Learning to accept and nurture all your emotions, those that feel bad as well as those that feel good, is vital. As is the ability to regulate your emotions and harness them in service of your values and goals rather than letting them boss you around.
  • Situational awareness: This feeds off two of the other pillars, self-awareness, and emotional awareness, but also incorporates the capacity to understand your immediate surroundings—to look outside—so that you gain a deep intuitive awareness of the context as well as your own“gut feelings.” This mix of inner and outer awareness informs you as to how well you can operate in that environment.

These four vital psychological talents are a potent mental weapon to help you make the decision to stick or to switch to another approach, and to get that decision right more times than you get it wrong. Ultimately, that will help you to operate at the top of your game.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-nature-human-emotions/202209/getting-through-any-obstacle-in-life