Category Archives: Daily Top Ten

Topley’s Top 10 – February 22, 2023

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. Margin as a Percentage of Total Stock Market

Trending down and well below 2008 levels

https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/margin-debt.php#:~:text=Since%20margin%20tends%20to%20increase,the%20entire%20US%20stock%20market.

2. Dow vs. S&P Returns History

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright

3. Biotech Stocks

BBH Biotech ETF rally off bottom but not back to Jan 22 levels yet…….well below all-time highs

www.stockcharts.com

4. Aramaco Biggest IPO Ever…Bull Market in Energy……..5 Year Return Still Negative

https://www.google.com/search?q=aramco+stock+chart&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS898US898&oq=aramco+stock+chart&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i390l5.4094j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

5. Private Equity Leader Apollo Management Traded Right Back to 2021 Highs

APO never broke 200-week moving average red line

www.stockcharts.com

6. The Market Implied Terminal Rate Up 40 Basis Points this Month.

WHAT IS THE TERMINAL RATE? INVESTOPEDIA KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • The terminal federal funds rate is the final interest rate that the Federal Reserve sets as its long-term target for the federal funds rate.
  • The federal funds (fed funds) rate is often used as a benchmark for other interest rates in the economy, such as mortgages, auto loans, and corporate bonds, among several others.
  • The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is responsible for determining both the current and the terminal federal funds rates.
  • Determining the terminal rate is not an exact science and involves forecasting future economic conditions such as inflation, gross domestic product (GDP) growth, and unemployment.

https://www.investopedia.com/federal-funds-rate-7097323#:~:text=In%20September%202022%2C%20Fed%20officials,at%20the%20end%20of%202022.

The market-implied terminal rate is up some 40 bps this month.

Source: The Daily Shot   https://dailyshotbrief.com/

7. Elon Musk’s latest US price drop brings Tesla’s electric-vehicle premium to a record low.

Bloomberg Tom Randall  The chart below shows the difference in price between Tesla’s best-selling models and the average price paid for a new vehicle in the US each month.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-21/tesla-undercuts-average-us-car-by-almost-5-000-in-ev-shakeout?srnd=premium&sref=GGda9y2L

8. Delinquencies in Subprime Auto Loans Spike

WSJ By Ben Eisenand Gina Heeb Some 9.3% of auto loans extended to people with low credit scores were 30 or more days behind on payments at the end of last year, the highest share since 2010, according to an analysis by Moody’s Analytics.

More Auto Payments Are Late, Exposing Cracks in Consumer Credit – WSJ

9. Growth in U.S. Labor Force.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/ericfinningan1/

10. 60 Top Tips to Live Longer, Doctor-Approved

Novos Longevity

How much are you doing to slow down your aging and maximize your lifespan and health span? Lots of things contribute to the aging process, many of which will surprise you!

We’ve put together this list of more 60 tips to slow your aging and live longer, all backed by research.

Skim through it to see what you’re already doing, and what will be easy for you to integrate into your daily routine.

DIET

1.  Reduce your intake of animal protein, especially processed red meat such as sausages, salami, bacon, ham, hot dogs, pâtés, etc.

2.  Replace red meat (e.g., beef, pork, mutton, veal) with white meat (poultry), fatty fish (e.g., salmon, herring, mackerel), and meat substitutes (based on tofu, pea, or mushroom protein).

3.  Consume lots of vegetables, legumes, mushrooms, fruits, nuts, and seeds. Vegetables should be the basis of your diet (not potatoes, pasta, rice and bread).

4.  Reduce your intake of starchy, empty-calorie foods like bread, pasta, rice, and potatoes. Replace them with more vegetables, legumes, mushrooms or quinoa.

5.  Avoid sugary foods and drinks as much as possible, like sodas, fruit juices, candy, cookies, sweets, cake, pastries, doughnuts, candy bars, chocolates and so on.

6.  Avoid trans fats, which can be found in fried foods, fast-food, bakery products (e.g., crackers, cookies, and cakes), and vegetable shortenings.

7.  Significantly reduce your intake of omega-6-fat-rich foods, like corn oil, sunflower oil, safflower oil, margarine, sesame oil, mayonnaise, and most salad dressings.

8.  Consume more healthy fats, especially omega-3 fats, by consuming more olives, olive oil, walnuts, avocados, flax seed, chia seed, fatty fish, and so on.

9.  Consume foods that have come straight from nature and are processed as little as possible, like foods your great-grandmother would recognize.

10.   Consume a daily, freshly made smoothie with vegetables and low-glycemic-index fruits, like blueberries.

11.   Eat specific foods that can slow down aging, including green leafy vegetables (broccoli, spinach, kale), blueberries, dark chocolate (containing at least 70% cacao), salmon, walnuts, pomegranate, etc.

12.   Don’t drink milk – milk accelerates aging.

13.   Don’t drink too much alcohol: that means a maximum of one glass per day, ideally with alcohol-free days.

14.   Hardly drink any sugary drinks (such as soda, commercial fruit juices, etc).

15.   Hydrate a lot. Drink at least 1.5 liters per day; that’s eigth glasses per day.

16.   Drink lots of water. Drink green tea, white tea, ginger tea or coffee (yes, coffee can reduce the risk of various aging-related diseases). Add spices (e.g., mint), citron or NOVOS Core to add taste to your water.

17.   Don’t take whey protein, testosterone or growth hormone. They all accelerate aging in the long term.

18.   Don’t follow unhealthy diets – most diets are unhealthy, unfortunately.

19.   Don’t follow a paleo diet or a high-protein diet: these diets accelerate aging in the long term, despite having beneficial effects in the short term (like weight loss).

20.   Don’t follow a keto diet (ketogenic diet) or a high-fat diet: these diets accelerate aging in the long term, despite having beneficial effects in the short term (like weight loss).

21.   Follow the NOVOS Longevity Diet.

22.   Eat fewer calories, and less often. Try to eat two meals a day, with breakfast being the most important meal of the day.

23.   Fast regularly. Eat within a 12-hour period, so your body can fast for 12 hours. Fast for ideally three days a few times per year, like at the start of every new season.

SUPPLEMENTS

24.   Take health supplements, like vitamin D3, vitamin K2, iodine, selenium, magnesium, B vitamins, and minimally oxidized (low TOTOX) omega-3 fatty acids. You can find the most important health supplements here.

25.   Take longevity supplements like NOVOS Core that contain substances that scientifically have been shown to slow down aging or increase lifespan, like alpha-ketoglutarate, fisetin, pterostilbene, microdosed lithium, etc.

26.   Don’t take antioxidants beyond what you find in a healthy diet. Most antioxidants don’t extend lifespan and some can even shorten lifespan and increase the risk of cancer (learn more here).

27.   Consider taking drugs that could slow down aging, like metformin, low-dose rapamycin, low-dose (baby) aspirin, or selegiline. Always discuss with a physician experienced in this matter.

EXERCISE

28.   Engage in anaerobic exercise (like weightlifting).

29.   Do aerobic exercise (like running or swimming).

30.   Do high-intensity interval training (HIIT).

31.   Commit to stretching and posture exercises, like pilates.

https://novoslabs.com/60-top-tips-to-live-longer-doctor-approved/?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=novoslabs.com&utm_campaign=longevity-questionnaire

 

Topley’s Top 10 – February 21, 2023

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. Value Factor vs. Growth Spread at Record Levels in Europe

Alpha Architect Blog

Larry Swedroe Given that the era of financial repression appears to be over (we seem to be returning to a more normal rate environment) and that valuation spreads remain at historically extreme levels, it seems likely that value stocks could be on the cusp of a winning stretch similar to the 1980s, 1990s or the 2000s. In other words, the rally that began in November 2020 may be just the tip of the iceberg, as wide divergences between the valuations of cheap stocks relative to expensive stocks have preceded significant outperformance for value over the subsequent decade, as shown in the figure below.

A Dark Winter for Value Stocks (alphaarchitect.com)

2. History of Energy Bull Markets.

Capital Group-Analysis of prior energy equity bull markets (we show Canada, as an example, in the chart below) suggests we may still be in the early innings of a positive rerating for the sector. Supported by higher energy prices, companies in the sector generated a record-breaking estimated $1.4 trillion of free cash flow (FCF) in 2022. Valuations remain attractive across a number of metrics including price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios. And the resilience of oil stocks in the face of falling oil prices over the last three months suggests investors are looking past any near-term weakness in the underlying commodity price.

Energy equity bull markets have often shown staying power

Sources: Bloomberg, Peters & Co. Limited, S&P/TSX (Canada) Composite Index performance. Data as of January 25, 2023.

https://www.capitalgroup.com/content/capital-group/us/en/advisor/home/insights/articles/five-energy-trends.html

3. Banking Crypto Looks to be Killed by Regulators

Barrons Joe Light-One way to do that, it seems, is to keep crypto out of the banking system. Top federal regulators issued a joint statement in January saying they are “carefully reviewing any proposals from banking organizations to engage in activities that involve cryptoassets.” Banks such as Signature Bank (ticker:SBNY) have pared ties to crypto. The warning could make banks less likely to seek regulatory approval.  The Federal Reserve also knocked down hopes for more crypto banking. The Fed rejected an application from digital-assets-focused Custodia Bank for a so-called Master Account, which would have enabled Custodia to get direct access to the Fed’s payment systems without going through an intermediary bank. Custodia has sued the Fed over its handling of the application.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-price-crypto-rally-crackdown-8898fc4b?mod=past_editions

SBNY $350 to $124

Silvergate $220 to $18

www.stockcharts.com

4. CBOE Stock About to Break Out to New Highs

Record option activity…speculation still alive in markets despite record Fed rate increases

51% of Revenue is U.S. Options

https://ir.cboe.com/investor-overview#:~:text=Sources%20of%20Revenue,licensing%20of%20our%20proprietary%20products.

5. Charlie B with Interesting Chart on High Valuations of Consumer Staple Stocks (safe stocks?)

@Charlie Bilello Google now has a lower P/E ratio than many leading consumer staples companies. Is this evidence of a safety bubble?

 

6. QQQ Naz 100 Chart

QQQ did not make it back to Summer 2022 highs on this rally

Liz Ann Sonders Schwab-NASDAQ 100’s selloffs from end of 2021 into middle of 2022 were consistent with increase in forward EPS (orange); yet now, forward EPS have fallen considerably as index has attempted to claw back losses
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results]

https://www.linkedin.com/in/lizannsonders/

7. Housing Inventory Declining

Torston Slok Apollo Group

8. Global plastic waste set to almost triple by 2060, says OECD

03/06/2022 – The amount of plastic waste produced globally is on track to almost triple by 2060, with around half ending up in landfill and less than a fifth recycled, according to a new OECD report.

Global Plastics Outlook: Policy Scenarios to 2060 says that without radical action to curb demand, increase product lifespans and improve waste management and recyclability, plastic pollution will rise in tandem with an almost threefold increase in plastics use driven by rising populations and incomes. The report estimates that almost two-thirds of plastic waste in 2060 will be from short-lived items such as packaging, low-cost products and textiles.

“If we want a world that is free of plastic pollution, in line with the ambitions of the United Nations Environment Assembly, we will need to take much more stringent and globally co-ordinated action,” OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said. “This report proposes concrete policies that can be implemented along the lifecycle of plastics that could significantly curb – and even eliminate – plastic leakage into the environment.”

The report (available as a preliminary version ahead of its full publication later this year) projects global plastics consumption rising from 460 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 to 1,231 Mt in 2060 in the absence of bold new policies, a faster rise than most raw materials. Growth will be fastest in developing and emerging countries in Africa and Asia, although OECD countries will still produce much more plastic waste per person (238 kg per year on average) in 2060 than non-OECD countries (77 kg).

Globally, plastic leakage to the environment is seen doubling to 44 Mt a year, while the build-up of plastics in lakes, rivers and oceans will more than triple, as plastic waste balloons from 353 Mt in 2019 to 1,014 Mt in 2060. Most pollution comes from larger debris known as macroplastics, but leakage of microplastics (synthetic polymers less than 5 mm in diameter) from items like industrial plastic pellets, textiles and tyre wear is also a serious concern.

The projected rise in plastics consumption and waste will come despite an expected increase in the use of recycled plastic in manufacturing new goods as well as technological advances and sectoral economic shifts that should mean an estimated 16% decrease by 2060 in the amount of plastic required to create USD 1 of economic output.

The share of plastic waste that is successfully recycled is projected to rise to 17% in 2060 from 9% in 2019, while incineration and landfilling will continue to account for around 20% and 50% of plastic waste respectively. The share of plastic that evades waste management systems – ending up instead in uncontrolled dumpsites, burned in open pits or leaking into the soil or aquatic environments – is projected to fall to 15% from 22%.

The new report builds on the OECD’s first Global Plastics Outlook: Economic Drivers, Environmental Impacts and Policy Options, released in February 2022. That first report found that plastic waste has doubled in two decades, with most ending up in landfill, incinerated or leaking into the environment. Since that report release, UN member states have pledged to negotiate a legally binding international agreement by 2024 to end plastic pollution.

Global Plastics Outlook: Policy Scenarios to 2060 looks at the impact of two potential scenarios. The first, a regional action scenario comprising a mix of fiscal and regulatory policies primarily in OECD countries could decrease plastic waste by almost a fifth and more than halve plastic leakage into the environment without a substantial impact on global GDP, which would be lower by 0.3% by 2060. The second, a global action scenario comprising more stringent policies implemented worldwide, could decrease plastic waste by a third and almost completely eliminate plastic leakage to the environment while lowering global GDP by an estimated 0.8%.

The report also looks at how actions to reduce greenhouse emissions could reduce plastic pollution given the interplay between the plastics lifecycle, fossil fuels and climate change.

Policies to reduce the environmental impacts of plastics and encourage a more circular use of them should include:

  • Taxes on plastics, including on plastic packaging
  • Incentives to reuse and repair plastic items
  • Targets for recycled content in new plastic products
  • Extended producer responsibility (EPR) schemes
  • Improved waste management infrastructure
  • Increased litter collection rates

Read more about OECD work on plastics

Global plastic waste set to almost triple by 2060, says OECD

9. The State of America’s Electric Vehicle Charging Network

Chartr

Electric avenueOn Wednesday, The White House announced that Tesla is set to start opening up part of its charging network, making 7,500 charging stations — roughly half of which will be Tesla’s fast “superchargers” — available to non-Tesla EVs by 2024.That’s a big deal, and gives the government a better chance of achieving its goal of 500,000 accessible chargers across the country by 2030. Indeed, Tesla isn’t the only company plugging in to help. Hertz, BP, GM, and EVgo are among the 16 companies that will provide an additional 100,000 chargers to the US network. A bigger network should, of course, accelerate the switch to EVs, and mitigate some of the current range anxiety.
NudgingThe carrot for participating in building out the charging network is getting a slice of the Biden administration’s $7.5bn EV charging fund. That’s encouraged Tesla execs to deviate from their prior policy, where they kept their setup from rival brands in a similar way to how Apple has shielded much of its tech ecosystem from competitors. The pivot has already got some Tesla drivers worried about long waiting times at busier charging stations though.

www.chartr.com

10. Cognitive Rigidity

Farnam Street Blog https://fs.blog/

Adding Exceptions is easier than updating: “Once the mind has accepted a plausible explanation for something, it becomes a framework for all the information that is perceived after it. We’re drawn, subconsciously, to fit and contort all the subsequent knowledge we receive into our framework, whether it fits or not. Psychologists call this “cognitive rigidity”. The facts that built an original premise are gone, but the conclusion remains—the general feeling of our opinion floats over the collapsed foundation that established it. Information overload, “busyness,” speed, and emotion all exacerbate this phenomenon. They make it even harder to update our beliefs or remain open-minded.”

— Source

Topley’s Top 10 – February 17, 2023

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. Fed Futures Pricing 50% Chance of 3 Additions 25 bps. Raises

Dorsey Wright Fed futures are now pricing a better than 50% chance of at least three additional 25 bps rate increases (or one 50 and one 25) by June as expectations for the terminal rate of interest rates have risen following the stronger-than-expected January jobs report and hot January CPI print.

2. Stock-Bond Correlation is Negative Again

The Daily Shot Equities: The stock/bond correlation is negative again.

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices

https://dailyshotbrief.com/

3. Spread Between BBB-Rated Bonds and 90 Day Treasuries at Historic Lows

Jonathan Baird The interest rate spread between BBB-rated bonds (a hair away from being classified as “junk”) and US 90-day Treasuries has descended to low levels that typically precede distinctly unpleasant stock market developments. That enthusiasm for corporate debt of dubious creditworthiness is so high during a period of rapidly rising rates says much about the divergence of investor sentiment and economic reality.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathanbaird88/

4. Strong Corporate Credit Fundamentals Limit Spread Widening

Guggenheim Partners

10 Macro Themes for 2023

https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/perspectives/macroeconomic-research/10-macroeconomic-themes-for-2023

5. 40% of Warren Buffett Portfolio is AAPL

https://hedgefollow.com/funds/Berkshire+Hathaway

6. International Equity Technical Update

Jack Ablin Cresset Capital

Why the Theories of Sir Isaac Newton Matter to Investing | Cresset Capital

7. Debt of Retailer $6 Trillion

A $6 Trillion Wave of Money Revives an Arcane Corner of Wall Street-Neil Callanan and Abhinav Ramnarayan

(Bloomberg) — Locked out of debt markets and facing significantly higher borrowing costs, executives at troubled companies are looking for help in an almost dormant corner of Wall Street.

High-profile financial advisers including Houlihan Lokey Inc., Lazard Ltd. and Evercore Inc. say they’re experiencing a surge in enquiries for so-called liability management as corporates bloated with debt find themselves searching for solutions to the end of a decade of almost free money.

Companies are grappling with the twin burdens of higher interest rates and slower economic growth, and some have already suspended dividends or put assets up for sale to pay debt. But with $6.3 trillion of outstanding high-yield and investment-grade corporate bonds coming due by the end of 2025, many are seeking alternative ways to protect their balance sheets.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/6-trillion-bond-wall-revives-050000785.html

8. Platinum and Palladium Corrections

Palladium -40% from Highs….50day and 200day sloping downward.

Platinum Closes Below 200day Moving Average

www.stockcharts.com

9. Doctors Are Disappearing From Emergency Rooms as Hospitals Look to Cut Costs

By Brett Kelman and Blake Farmer, Nashville Public Radio For Private Equity, Dropping ER Docs Is a ‘Simple Equation’

Private equity companies pool money from wealthy investors to buy their way into various industries, often slashing spending and seeking to flip businesses in three to seven years. While this business model is a proven moneymaker on Wall Street, it raises concerns in health care, where critics worry the pressure to turn big profits will influence life-or-death decisions that were once left solely to medical professionals.

Nearly $1 trillion in private equity funds have gone into almost 8,000 health care transactions over the past decade, according to industry tracker PitchBook, including buying into medical staffing companies that many hospitals hire to manage their emergency departments.

Two firms dominate the ER staffing industry: TeamHealth, bought by private equity firm Blackstone in 2016, and Envision Healthcare, bought by KKR in 2018. Trying to undercut these staffing giants is American Physician Partners, a rapidly expanding company that runs ERs in at least 17 states and is 50% owned by private equity firm BBH Capital Partners.

These staffing companies have been among the most aggressive in replacing doctors to cut costs, said Dr. Robert McNamara, a founder of the American Academy of Emergency Medicine and chair of emergency medicine at Temple University.

“It’s a relatively simple equation,” McNamara said. “Their No. 1 expense is the board-certified emergency physician. So they are going to want to keep that expense as low as possible.”

Not everyone sees the trend of private equity in ER staffing in a negative light. Jennifer Orozco, president of the American Academy of Physician Associates, which represents physician assistants, said even if the change — to use more nonphysician providers — is driven by the staffing firms’ desire to make more money, patients are still well served by a team approach that includes nurse practitioners and physician assistants.

“Though I see that shift, it’s not about profits at the end of the day,” Orozco said. “It’s about the patient.”

The “shift” is nearly invisible to patients because hospitals rarely promote branding from their ER staffing firms and there is little public documentation of private equity investments.

Dr. Arthur Smolensky, a Tennessee emergency medicine specialist attempting to measure private equity’s intrusion into ERs, said his review of hospital job postings and employment contracts in 14 major metropolitan areas found that 43% of ER patients were seen in ERs staffed by companies with nonphysician owners, nearly all of whom are private equity investors.

Smolensky hopes to publish his full study, expanding to 55 metro areas, later this year. But this research will merely quantify what many doctors already know: The ER has changed. Demoralized by an increased focus on profit, and wary of a looming surplus of emergency medicine residents because there are fewer jobs to fill, many experienced doctors are leaving the ER on their own, he said.

University in 2020, nurse practitioners join doctors in practicing how to place a chest tube to fix a collapsed lung by snaking a rubber hose through a rack of pork ribs. The NPs, who work for American Physician Partners, will have to perform the procedure under a doctor’s supervision before being allowed to do it on their own. (BLAKE FARMER FOR KHN)

“Most of us didn’t go into medicine to supervise an army of people that are not as well trained as we are,” Smolensky said. “We want to take care of patients.”

https://khn.org/news/article/doctors-are-disappearing-from-emergency-rooms-as-hospitals-look-to-cut-costs/

10. The Two Skills Your Child Needs for a Successful Life

Psychology Today Jeffrey Bernstein Ph.D.

Life is easier and more fulfilling for children who can cope in these two ways.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the rates of anxiety, depression, anger, and overall stress have risen among children and teens. Given these daunting challenges, as parents, we must, now more than ever, help our children become skilled at dealing with life’s demands.

There are many essential skills that are essential for children to learn to have a productive life. A few examples include communication, technology, financial literacy, writing, and organizational skills. Perhaps you can add to this list.

As I reflect on my over 30 years of work as a psychologist, I have now logged 45,000-plus hours of counseling sessions. I don’t claim to know it all. Yet, when it comes to what it takes for a child of any age to thrive in a highly competitive world, I believe we can boil it down to two crucial skills.

1.   How to regulate emotions

2.   How to problem-solve through challenges

Briefly, self-regulation of emotions means your child can calm down and cope with their feelings on their own. They can manage stressful situations or know how to remove themselves from them. Problem-solving involves acknowledging problems, reflecting on ways to manage them, and applying the best solutions. (For more, see my book, 10 Days to a Less Defiant Child.)

The great news is that you can teach and inspire your child to regulate their emotions and problem-solve.

4 Ways You Can Help Your Child Regulate Their Emotions and Problem-Solve

Modeling and inspiring successfully managing emotions and problem-solving is your gift that keeps on giving to your children. Here are four ways to do it:

1. Model a growth mindset for self-care. The more your child sees you practice self-care for your emotional health, the more they will instinctually know to take care of their own. Be committed to continually working on your own calming and problem-solving skills.

2. Use calming techniques. Too many parents tell their kids to calm down without first demonstrating ways to regulate those big emotions in the first place. We mistakenly believe that managing our lives should be an autopilot-like experience. It’s not. From the time our feet hit the floor in the morning, we are confronted with demands and challenges. We need to use tools to manage these challenges.

Breathing exercises, mindfulness meditation, helpful self-talk, gratitude, reminding ourselves of our strengths, prayer, yoga, or physical activity are just a few tools that can help you manage stress and maintain a calm state of mind.

3. Listen. Really listen. When children feel heard, they feel valued, and their self-esteem is boosted. Listening to children helps to foster open and honest communication, which can lead to more positive relationships and a deeper understanding of their perspectives. When children are allowed to express themselves, they can feel empowered to come up with solutions to their problems.

4. Talk constructively to yourself and them. Children learn by observing the behavior of those around them, so it’s important to transparently and actively demonstrate calm behavior in all situations. Here is an example of what you can say when in the face of a conflict:

“There’s a reactive side of me, as your parent, that now wants to yell and get controlling. Just being aware and expressing this is helping me stay calmer. How about we talk this out so we can understand each other better?”

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/liking-the-child-you-love/202301/the-two-top-skills-your-child-needs-for-a-successful-life

 

Topley’s Top 10 – February 16, 2023

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. Single Stock Call Option Highest Ever by WIDE MARGIN

2. Value ETFs Breaking Out to New Highs

www.stockcharts.com

3. S&P 500 Long-Term Weekly Chart

SPY never broke 200 week moving average in red….just closed above 50week moving average in beginning of Feb.

4. The U.S. Stock Market Outperformance Over Europe was Mostly FAANG

BCA RESEARCH

https://twitter.com/CameronDawson

5. Six-Month Treasury 5% Handle for First Time Since 2007

https://twitter.com/biancoresearch

6. Bitcoin ETF BITO +45% Year to Date….BITO -45% One-Year Return.

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BITO:NYSEARCA?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiZ48md_Jn9AhX4FVkFHapyCUwQ3ecFegQIJBAY

7. Europe ETF Making a Run at 2020 Pre-Covid Highs

www.stockcharts.com

8. Investor Purchases of Homes Fall 45.8%

Marketwatch Aarthi Swaminathan

Investor purchases of homes in the U.S. fell by 45.8% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, according to a new report from real-estate tech company Redfin RDFN, 6.87%.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-back-off-from-the-housing-market-buying-half-as-many-homes-than-a-year-ago-redfin-says-1e40b663?mod=dist_amp_social&link=sfmw_tw&redirect=amp

9. Fewer Mom and Pop Investors Plus Higher Rates Reducing Home Equity Lines=Below

Eric Finnegan Shrinking home builder backlogs and fewer large remodeling projects will hit residential building products demand this year.

Case in point: Building materials dealers reported weak customer traffic in January among both PRO customers (builders and remodelers) and do-it-yourselfers (small home improvement projects). Compare this with a year ago, when 56% reported Strong PRO traffic. 

In the words of Biggie Smalls… “Things done changed!”

https://www.linkedin.com/in/ericfinnigan1/

10. Military Tactic for Emails

Military Leaders Use This Brilliant Tactic to Write Effective Emails

Smart email writers start with the bottom line.

BYCARMINE GALLO, HARVARD INSTRUCTOR, KEYNOTE SPEAKER, AUTHOR, ‘THE BEZOS

Good writing skills are essential to advance in the U.S. military — and there’s one technique military leaders follow to make their emails clear, concise, and compelling.

Now, what I just wrote is an example of a writing technique called BLUF: Bottom Line Up Front. The method was first introduced in an army training manual and is now taught across different military branches. It’s a tactic that will help your writing — and your emails— stand out. 

The tactic came up repeatedly during my visits to two military bases this summer. First, I met with Army Green Berets at Fort Bragg, North Carolina. Second, I spoke to fighter jet pilots for the United States Marine Corps in Yuma, Arizona. Both groups of highly-trained soldiers are taught BLUF because it saves time and makes communication more efficient.01:53

Although many of us send hundreds of texts and direct messages on Slack each day, emailcontinues to be the preferred method of communication around the globe. There are 4.1 billion email users globally. That’s a large number, of course, but only a fraction of the emails we send are read.

An email with the Bottom Line Up Front states the purpose of the email in the first paragraph. An email isn’t a novel. There’s no need to build suspense until the end. More important than the length of an email — which largely depends on the topic — is whether your reader gets the point and gets it fast.

Here’s an example of the first paragraph of an email written in the BLUF format. 

This email is going to all sales managers in North America. It explains the new cloud-based sales system the company will implement in Q4.

In two sentences, the reader knows why they’re on the string and what the email is about. They can decide to read it now or file it away to read later (hopefully before Q4).

The bottom line should stand out in bold font and answer the following questions in one or two sentences:

1.     Why am I receiving the email?

2.     What information does it convey?

3.     What important dates or deadlines do I need to know?

The military puts a lot of research into effective writing. They found that the most significant problem was failing to convey a focused message quickly. Since many people bury the main point in a lengthy email, BLUF is a framework that forces the writer to start with a clear and concise idea.

Effective writing is understood easily and quickly. Don’t frustrate your reader by hiding the main point. Put the bottom line up front, and your readers will appreciate it.

https://www.inc.com/carmine-gallo/military-leaders-use-this-brilliant-tactic-to-write-effective-emails.html?utm_source=linkedin&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=freeform

Topley’s Top 10 – February 15, 2023

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. Biggest Tail Risk 2023 Poll

Marketwatch The chartAs JPM pointed out, the market is behaving as if a war is not happening. Of course, it is over there, and really in the bull’s-eye more for Europe than the U.S., which has China and balloons to worry about. But here’s a chart from that Bank of America survey of fund managers that offers some food for thought.

It shows that sticky, high inflation remains the biggest tail risk for investors, that is an event with a low probability of happening, but if it does, the damages could be outsize for markets. The second-biggest is geopolitics, and that’s as doubts grow of a peace accord between Ukraine and Russia in 2023 (expectations now down to 50% from 63% in January).

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-peak-of-this-market-rally-is-almost-here-says-jpmorgan-time-to-ditch-u-s-stocks-and-buy-these-instead-says-wall-street-giant-71eb998a?mod=home-page

2. More Seasonality Data

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright-In the table below we looked at all January returns since 1928 where the S&P 500 (SPX) gained at least 5% and then looked at how the market performed the following month. Interestingly, February was positive 64% of the time, which is above the 57% original batting average, and posted an average (and median) return of about 1%, which is also well above the average February return of 0.17%. There are several notable outliers, like in 1946 when the market gained over 7% in January and then lost nearly 7% in February, or in 1934 when the market returned 11% in January and then fell about 3.5% the following month. However, in the aggregate, it appears that seasonality could still be acting as a tailwind here.

https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright

3. We are Coming Out of Long Period of Bearish Sentiment in AAII Bull/Bear Measure.

LPL Research

https://iplresearch.com/2023/02/10/are-bears-finally-going-into-hibernation/

4. The U.S. Stock Market Outperformance Over Europe was Mostly FAANG

BCA RESEARCH

BCA Research – The Web 2.0 Bubble Is Bursting. Here’s What It Means

5. FAANG Employee Growth Since 2018 Massive…Layoffs Rounding Error.

Paayal Zaveri Business Insider

https://www.businessinsider.com/impact-of-big-tech-layoffs-amazon-meta-microsoft-google-salesforce-2023-2#-1

6. 10-Year Yield Trades to 200day then Bounces Higher.

www.stockcharts.com

7. Dow Industrials and Transports vs. 2021 Highs

www.stockcharts.com

8. America’s Priciest Neighborhoods Are Changing as the Ultra-Rich Move to Florida

ByAlexandre Tanzi, Felipe Marques, Michael Sasso and Amanda Albright  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-14/the-most-expensive-neighborhoods-in-the-us-from-florida-to-new-york?srnd=premium&sref=GGda9y2L

9. More than 1 in 6 Americans now 65 or older as U.S. continues graying

Story by Linda Searing More than 1 in 6 Americans now 65 or older as U.S. continues graying© Elizabeth von Oehsen/The Washington Post; iStock

Some 17 percent of people living in the United States, or more than 1 in 6, were 65 or older in 2020, according to a report from the Administration on Aging.

That represents 55.7 million people, an increase of 15.2 million (38 percent) of people 65 and above since 2010, compared with just 2 percent growth in the under-65 population. It also reflects a consistent increase in the nation’s older population since 1900, when there were 3.1 million Americans 65 and older (4 percent of the population).

View on Watch

The report projects a climb to roughly 80.8 million residents 65 and older by 2040, more than double the number in 2000. It also predicts a doubling of the number of even older residents by 2040, with the count of those 85 and older expected to grow from 6.7 million in 2020 to 14.4 million by 2040. In 2020, there were nearly 105,000 residents 100 or older.

Much of the aging of the U.S. population stems from the post-World War II baby boom — the period from 1946 to 1964. The report says that nearly half (46 percent) of baby boomers are now 65 and older. Based primarily on data from the Census Bureau, the National Center for Health Statistics and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the report offers a statistical profile of the country’s aging population. For instance, arthritis is the most common chronic condition in the age group, affecting 47 percent of those 65 and older. About a fourth have some type of cancer, and a fifth have diabetes. Also, 9 percent of those 65 and older smoke, 30 percent are obese, 28 percent have cognitive issues, and 95 percent got at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine. For this age group, 14 percent of expenditures are health-related (compared with 8 percent for all consumers).

The report also includes information on living arrangements, marital status, racial and ethnic composition, geographic distribution, education and more.

This article is part of The Post’s “Big Number” series, which takes a brief look at the statistical aspect of health issues. Additional information and relevant research are available through the hyperlinks.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/more-than-1-in-6-americans-now-65-or-older-as-us-continues-graying/ar-AA17t349

10. Jalen Hurts-In Defeat, an Appreciation-WSJ

WSJ By Jason Gay

I’ll admit this isn’t the ordinary move—an appreciation of the losing quarterback on the morning after the Super Bowl. The usual drill is to rudely step over the losing team, and wrap our love and superlatives around the champions. Within minutes of the confetti drop, the loser is relegated to history. By sunrise, it’s like they didn’t exist.

But I want to write a bit about Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts, because he didn’t play like a loser at all Sunday in Arizona. He played like someone who very much deserved to win—until he and the Eagles didn’t.

In the somber postgame, Hurts made a comment that signaled what this 24-year-old leader is all about.

“You either win or you learn, that’s how I feel,” Hurts said.

It’s a remix of a famous Nelson Mandela quote—I never lose, I win or learn—and I think every coach in America just took out a pen and copied that down. You either win or learn. In how many locker rooms will that bit of healthy wisdom be deployed in over the coming month? I’m going to drop it on my own children after youth soccer losses.

This is the person Hurts is. By now we all know the basics of his story—the acclaimed quarterback from Texas who ascended to the heights of college football as a starter at Alabama, then painfully lost his job in real time in the biggest game of the year.

A season on the bench later, Hurts found his way to the University of Oklahoma, where he ascended to a starring role again. As an NFL prospect, however, Hurts was shortchanged, lacking in those goofy analyst intangibles like “arm talent.”

He went to the Eagles in the second round of the 2020 draft. He became the starter by the end of his rookie season. Of course he did. He is beloved in Philly, his underdog persistence a metaphor for a proud city.

Despite his track record, Hurts showed up at this Super Bowl as the game’s clear No. 2 star. On the other sideline was Patrick Mahomes, the reigning two-time NFL MVP, a thrill ride package of a quarterback who had already won a ring. Mahomes, too, had been shortchanged by some experts as a draft prospect, but so much greatness has happened since, it’s been forgotten.

Every other active quarterback on earth is second billing to Patrick Mahomes. But had I told you Sunday morning that one quarterback would throw for a glittering 304 yards and a touchdown, plus rush for 70 yards and three touchdowns—a spectacular, historic performance—would you have picked Hurts, or Mahomes?

It was Hurts’s night, almost the entire night. He made the long throws and the short throws; he dazzled with long runs and short plunges, those outrageous training camp squats and dead lifts proving their worth for every single inch. It was the type of performance that made you want to find every skeptical draft analyst and press their nose into the stat page:

Do you see this? Look at this! No quarterback in 57 Super Bowls has ever played a game like this. 

Even a nightmare fumble in the first half—the Philly quarterback dropped and booted the football straight into the mitts of a Chiefs defender, who scored—didn’t unravel Hurts’s composure. He remained steady and got Philadelphia settled. As Mahomes winced with a reinjured ankle, Hurts looked like he’d been here before, many times.

Had the Eagles prevailed, the MVP was a lock. Then what happened happened. Mahomes turned back into Mahomes, and the Chiefs surged furiously back to take a late lead. Hurts slipped on a last-second Hail Mary—that Super Bowl turf was an unmitigated disaster—and that was that.

Hurts apologized to his team after the game. It was utterly unnecessary—Philadelphia’s failures were almost entirely on the defensive end—but here’s his explanation:

“I don’t do this to be loved. I don’t do this to be hated. I don’t do this to seek anyone else’s approval. I do it for the guys in the locker room. I do it for all the time that we’ve invested into this.”

Jalen Hurts rushed for three touchdowns and passed for a touchdown in Super Bowl LVII.PHOTO: KIRBY LEE/USA TODAY SPORTS

The two quarterbacks bumped into each other late in the corridor outside the locker room—a triumphant Mahomes still in his Chiefs uniform; a defeated Hurts already in street clothes for the bus.

Mahomes knew: This scene could easily have been reversed.

“The way he stepped up on this stage, ran and threw the ball and did whatever his team needed to win, that was a special performance,” Mahomes said of Hurts. “I don’t want it to get lost in the loss.”

Hurts didn’t win. He will learn.

“The beautiful part about it is everyone experiences different pains, everyone experiences different agonies of life,” Hurts said. “You decide if you want to learn from it. You decide if you want that to be a teachable moment. I know I do.”

I’ve nothing more to add. Nothing in football can be promised, but I’m close to certain Jalen Hurts will be back.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/jalen-hurts-eagles-super-bowl-mahomes-5659589f