1.Zero Inflation Showing Up in System….The Betting Line on Another Rate Rise Falls Below Even Money.
Rates: The market-implied probability of a third Fed rate hike this year dipped below 40%.
Category Archives: Daily Top Ten
Topley’s Top 10 – July 21, 2017
1.Summer Seasonality Kicking In?
Equity Markets: Based on seasonal patterns, this is the time of the summer when the S&P 500 should peak.
Source: @RyanDetrick; Read full article
Topley’s Top Ten – July 19, 2017
1.Three Horseman of Bull Market All Made New Highs. Buybacks, IPOs and Spin-Offs.
PKW Buybacks after lagging when rates blipped higher, now rally mode.
IPOs Outperforming Market in 2017
Spin-Offs New Highs.
Topley’s Top 10 – July 18, 2017
1. What Happens When the VIX Hits Record Lows.
This happy result is not an accident. Over the last three decades, the way to have made money from the VIX was to interpret it opposite to how a contrarian would—to be a contrarian’s contrarian, if you will. That at least is the conclusion of an academic study that is forthcoming in the prestigious Journal of Finance and written by two Yale finance professors, Alan Moreira and Tyler Muir. If the future is like the past, they convincingly show, you can safely invest in equities so long as the VIX remains low. You would reduce your equity exposure only when volatility spikes.
Mark Hulbert.
Read full story
Topley’s Top Ten – July 17, 2017
1.Too Complacent a Market?? Shorts Disappearing as VIX Hits Single Digits.
Equity Markets: SPY ETF short interest continues to decline as short-sellers capitulate.
Source: @hedgopia, @jessefelder
www.thedailyshot.com