Topley’s Top Ten – October 20, 2017

1.ROBO ETF +36% YTD vs. S&P +12%

Top Holdings

2.Investment Grade Corporate Debt is $6 Trillion Market

Machines Took Over the Stock Market. Next Up, Bonds

Banks unleash new trading software systems in effort to pick up share of $6 trillion corporate-debt market

A recent study by the Bank for International Settlements estimated that only 40% of investment-grade corporate bond trading was executed through computers rather than over the phone, compared with 75% in Treasury-debt trading, 80% in stocks and 90% in a broad array of futures contracts.

Now, investment banks are pushing to stoke more electronic trading in the market, especially with small trades that otherwise might fall through the cracks. It is yet another example of banks turning to technology to try to generate revenue growth at relatively low cost.

3.Third Quarter Earnings Driven Largely Driven by Energy.


Rewards for Earnings Beats Declining.

4.Rates…Are We Finally Going to See Rates Move Higher?

 BND  Vanguard Total Bond ETF trades to 2016 highs…Watching for breakout

5.Pimco Growth Outlook from Around the World….Emerging 5.5% vs. Developed 2%

6.Rates Spike and Dollar Rallies Overnight on Further Tax Cut Headlines.

Projected National Debt

Zero Hedge

7.Six Historical Fed Balance Sheet Reductions- in 1921-1922, 1928-1930, 1937, 1941, 1948-1950 and 2000….5 Ended in Recession.

The Federal Reserve‘s looming attempt to shrink its mammoth portfolio of bonds comes with an ugly track record: Virtually every time the central bank has tried it in the past, recessions have followed.

Over the past several months, the Fed has prepared markets for the upcoming effort to reduce the $4.5 trillion it currently holds of mostly Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities. The balance sheetballooned as the Fed sought to stimulate the economy out of its financial crisis morass.

The Fed has embarked on six such reduction efforts in the past — in 1921-1922, 1928-1930, 1937, 1941, 1948-1950 and 2000.

Of those episodes, five ended in recession, according to research from Michael Darda, chief economist and market strategist at MKM Partners. The balance sheet trend mirrors what has happened much of the time when the Fed has tried to raise rates over a prolonged period of time, with 10 of the last 13 tightening cycles ending in recession.

“Moreover, outside of the 1920s and 1930s, there is no precedent for double-digit annual declines in the balance sheet/base that will likely begin to occur late next year,” Darda said in a note.

Indeed, the Fed’s efforts have been unprecedented.

8.2008 Hangover Still Lingering

The United States: US consumers still have not recovered from the 2008 economic shock. Discretionary service spending is improving much slower than during the previous cycles.

Source: @MKTWeconomics; Read full article

 9.Read of Day…Sleep Like Tom Brady.

I tried the clothes Tom Brady uses to help him sleep better and recover faster after games — and they work surprisingly well

The Insider Picks team writes about stuff we think you’ll like. Business Insider has affiliate partnerships, so we get a share of the revenue from your purchase.

Tom Brady sleeping in Under Armour’s Athlete Recovery Sleepwear.Under Armour

Whether training or competing, athletes put their bodies through a lot of strenuous activities.

Naturally, soreness and pain come along with being an athlete, but they’re no excuse for poor performance. From ice baths to massages and cupping therapies, athletes try everything when it comes to recovery techniques.

Now, Under Armour and the New England Patriots’ star quarterback Tom Brady created one of the best ways to recover after an intense workout — and it’s easy as going to sleep.

Sure, sleep has always been on the most obvious ways all humans — not just athletes —  recover, but the sportswear brand’s high-tech sleepwear can help you make the best of your eight hours at night.

Under Armour Athlete Recovery Sleepwear incorporates bioceramic technology into a patterned lining the garments, which is designed to maximize comfort and fit. The pattern includes special bioceramic particles that absorb infrared wavelengths emitted by the body and reflect back far infrared energy, helping the body recover faster while promoting better sleep. Far infrared energy is a completely safe type of radiation that promotes cell regrowth within the body. That means your muscles and joints regenerate faster, resulting in less soreness after intense physical activity. You can read a lot more far infrared energy here.

The therapeutic effects of far infrared energy have long been used in saunas to treat pain and discomfort. Under Armour’s Athlete Recovery Sleepwear provides those same benefits and lets you skip the trip to the sauna by using far infrared-emitting bioceramic particles and your own body heat.

With five Super Bowl victories, Tom Brady knows a thing or two about consistently competing at the highest level possible regardless of aches and pains, and this revolutionary new technology is what he uses to help him recover fast and stay on top of his game. Before going to Under Armour to create a line of sleepwear, Brady used bioceramic wraps to treat acute pain and inflammation. The idea stemmed from blending two of his favorite recovery techniques, sleep and far infrared energy, together in a product that could be worn for extended periods. That product became Under Armour Athlete Recovery Sleepwear.

This bioceramic lining reflects Far Infrared waves back to the body.Under Armour

Under Armour sent over the Athlete Recovery Sleepwear set for me to try out, and after several weeks of wearing it, the clothes really do work.

When I first learned about the bioceramic technology reflecting far infrared energy back to the body, I was very skeptical that it was just fancy wording for warmth, but that is definitely not the case. I wore the henley and pants to bed to give them a shot. I was instructed that it would take a couple of weeks to see the full benefits and that turned out to be true. After just one wear, I didn’t see a difference, but after several wears, I noticed significantly less aches and overall better nights of sleep.

I also found the sleepwear to be effective for lounging around the house. Put them on when you get home from work and you’ll be able to feel the technology at work, compared to sleeping through it. In my experience, the far infrared gives off a very soothing sensation that your joints and muscles will appreciate. Granted, the Athlete Recovery Sleepwear won’t ease pain immediately the way using a heating pad or even taking a Tylenol would, but it’s constantly at work. Heating pads can’t be worn around the clock and medicine wears off, so the consistency that Under Armour Athlete Recovery Sleepwear offers is a major bonus. As long as you’re wearing it, you’ll be on your way to recovery and better sleep. The Under Armour Athlete Recovery Sleepwear has easily become my go-to attire for sleeping and lounging because it works on you’re body when you’re not.

At $79 to $99 for each piece of clothing, the sleepwear is expensive but well worth it. To the eye, it looks like average sleepwear, and that’s actually the beauty of the product. Instead of having to wrap yourself in bioceramic bandages or sit in saunas as Brady would, you can get the same heeling properties while sleeping or lounging. The bioceramic material is also safe to wash and dry, so the effectiveness of the clothes won’t wear over time.

Whether you’re a professional athlete like Tom Brady who’s looking to shorten their recovery time in between workouts and competitions or an average person searching for a better night’s sleep, Under Armour Athlete Recovery Sleepwear is a must-try.

10.7 DO-NOT Rules of High Performers

A short while ago, I shared the 5 must-follow rules of high-performers. While it’s easy to think of these as the only steps needed to harness the “champion mindset,” there are likely still obstacles you face—obstacles of your own making.

Here’s the hard truth: High performers, while naturally in tune with rules for success, also need a list of “Do-Not” rules so that they stay on track.

As Warren Buffet says, “The difference between successful people and very successful people is that very successful people say NO to almost everything.”

There are three main areas where these rules apply: your success-making Morning Routine, your Health, and your Relationships.

DO-NOT Rules of Your Morning Routine

DO NOT hit the snooze button. It’s tempting, and sure, there are days when you feel like an extra 15 minutes of sleep is more worthwhile than 15 minutes of groggy semi-alertness. But this is about more than a SINGLE morning. This is about TRAINING yourself to be more alert EVERY morning, and committing to consistent productivity.

DO NOT check social media or e-mail first thing in the morning. Why? Because it takes you instantly off-track. If you’re committed to practicing a well-oiled morning routine, then you have to have clear focus every time you wake up. Your rituals—exercise, meditation, breakfast, time with family—need to be the same every morning, and they need your FULL attention. If you start your day by cluttering your mind with endless emails and social media feeds (filled with to-dos and distractions), your focus is already lost. You won’t be present for anything in your morning, and you’ll spend most of your day trying to find it. End result: Zero productivity.

DO NOT multitask. Scientists have demonstrated that the mind is awful at multitasking. In fact, we aren’t really able to handle any two things at once—we just switch back and forth rapidly between tasks. That means our full energy and attention aren’t devoted to any one thing. If you want to succeed at a task—in the morning or during the day—focus fully on one thing at a time.

DO-NOT Rules of Your Health

DO NOT eat high-sugar foods, especially for breakfast or lunch. The reason is simple: You body metabolizes processed sugar quickly, meaning you get a quick hit of energy, then slump in an hour. Your breakfast should be filled with high-fiber, high-protein foods that supply your mind and body with the energy they need to be productive throughout the day. If you eat well, a healthy breakfast may even carry you through the afternoon (though you should always make time for a nutritious lunch).

DO NOT drink too much caffeine, especially late in the day. Early morning cups of Joe are great, but can also leave you peaking before your most mentally-taxing activities. And, much like sugar, too much caffeine will cause you to crash in the middle of the work day. How are you supposed to focus if you’re suffering from a double-hit sugar and caffeine crash?

DO NOT consume excessive amounts of alcohol at night that leave you tired and groggy the next day. Here’s the thing about alcohol: It’s great in the moment, but enjoyed to excess and it depletes the body of vital vitamins and nutrients—while also weakening the immune system. That means you wake up the next morning feeling fuzzy, and leave yourself open to potential illness that can derail your entire week. A glass or two of wine is fine—and some studies show it’s even beneficial—but don’t drink too much.

DO NOT watch television or check email late at night (or within 1 hour of bedtime). Studies have shown screen time shortly before you go to bed affects the body’s circadian rhythm, or the sleep-wake cycle. Actively engaging with screens ruins productive sleep because the light of the screen suggests to the brain that it’s still daylight—throwing the sleep-wake cycle off kilter.

The difference between successful people and very successful people is that very successful people say NO to almost everything. —Warren Buffett

DO NOT Rules of Your Relationships

DO NOT gossip or argue with people at work. Drama is very enticing—especially when it takes the form of scandalous stories and behind-the-back gossip. But a high-performer thinks positively about the people he or she chooses to work with, encouraging them to grow and become better people. This not only fosters a happier, more productive work environment, but encourages positive behavior that comes back to you in the form of active support and constructive criticism.

DO NOT surround yourself with apathetic under-performers. I have often talked about how important it is to spend time with people who lift you up. The opposite is also true—don’t sustain relationships with individuals who choose to live an under-performing, aimless life.

If you follow these DO NOT rules, you’ll keep yourself OUT of trouble and perform at a higher level every single day.

So are you with me?

Are you committed to quitting the snooze button, starting your day right, fostering healthy relationships, and following the high-energy principles that I’ve laid out for you?

Let’s do this.