1. B Rated Junk Bonds Spread

“It’s Different This Time” Takes Root in the Junk-Bond Market Amid Parallels to Post-Lehman 2008

by Wolf Richter • Oct 23, 2019 • 32 Comments • Email to a friend

And so far, so good. https://wolfstreet.com/2019/10/23/junk-bond-market-happily-blows-off-warnings-its-different-this-time-takes-root/

1.S&P Earnings So Far…-3% Year Over Year.

With 19% of companies reported, S&P 500 earnings down 3% year-over-year, slowest growth since Q1 2016.

DAVE LUTZ AT JONES TRADING

1.Emerging Markets Earnings Estimates Increasing.

The earnings outlook in the U.S. is darkening, but the view from developing markets is perking up. The ratio of earnings estimates between the S&P 500 and the MSCI Emerging Markets is at the lowest since early August. Optimism of an end to the trade war is sending EM stocks and currencies toward their second monthly advance.

1. Housing and Recessions

by Calculated Risk on 10/15/2019 11:32:00 AM

Now that new home sales have reached a new cycle high (in June), I’d like to update a couple of graphs in a previous post (most of this from an earlier post).

For the economy, what we should be focused on are single family starts and new home sales. As I noted in Investment and Recessions “New Home Sales appears to be an excellent leading indicator, and currently new home sales (and housing starts) are up solidly year-over-year, and this suggests there is no recession in sight.”

For the bottoms and troughs for key housing activity, here is a graph of Single family housing starts, New Home Sales, and Residential Investment (RI) as a percent of GDP.

Read more at https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2019/10/housing-and-recessions.html#rqPIhycXiXK7Bvcy.99

1.Riskier Corporate Debt At All-Time Highs as a % of GDP.

Capital Group Fixed Income–https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights.html