Category Archives: Daily Top Ten

Topley’s Top 10 – November 11, 2022

1. History of 5% Up Days

The S&P 500 gained more than 5% today, the best day since April 2020. This was the 23rd >5% day since 1950. Most tend to happen in clusters, but higher 27.6% a year later and up 90.9% of the time is a nice takeaway. @ryanDetrick

Ryan Detrick LPL Research https://twitter.com/RyanDetrick/status/1590821274863153152/photo/1


2. Peaks in Fed Policy and Stock Market Performance.

Jennifer Wright Edward Jones Are we getting closer to a peak?  While monetary policy tightening phases can be painful for stock and bond market returns, we may be closer to the end of the Fed’s rate-hiking campaign than the beginning. Market expectations currently call for the Fed’s final rate hike to occur at their February 2023 FOMC meeting. Historically, when the Fed’s policy rate peaks, market performance is quite strong in the 12 months that follow: Since 1980, S&P 500 returns during this period have averaged about +15%.

While every cycle is unique, given the negative returns and sentiment this year, markets may certainly welcome a potential pause in Fed tightening.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jennifer-k-wright-cfp%C2%AE-cpwa%C2%AE-944384a/


3. Three Lower Highs in U.S. Dollar.

Dollar showing some short-term bearish signals….3 lower highs purple arrows….close below 50day

www.stockcharts.com


4. Average Performance of Commodities During Rising and Falling Dollar Environments

Dorsey Wright The graph below shows the average performance of four ETFs representing different areas of the commodities complex, copper (industrial metals), energy, gold (precious metals), and agriculture.

https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright


5. Small Cap Energy About to Breakout to New Highs?


6. Disney Breaks to New Lows on Chart…-53% from Highs.

DIS chart 50day thru 200day to downside

www.stockcharts.com


7. Why It is Tough for Interest Rates to Go Much Higher? $965m per day in Interest Payments on Government Debt

https://www.statista.com/chart/28393/us-public-debt/


8. New Home Cancellations increased Sharply in Q3

“Significant shift in market conditions” CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/new-home-cancellations-increased-5b3  Found at Abnormal Returns Blog www.abnormalreturns.com


9. Magazine Cover Curse

https://twitter.com/GRDecter


10. These 5 Foods Will Nourish Your Metabolism & Bolster Mental Health

mbg Founder & Co-CEOBy Jason Wachob

You may be familiar with the gut-brain connection, but according to Harvard psychiatrist Chris Palmer, M.D., author of Brain Energytruly understanding metabolism is the key to resolving mental health issues. “Metabolism is a process our cells use to break down the products of food, turn it into energy used to maintain or grow cells, and it involves the management of waste products,” he explains on this episode of the mindbodygreen podcast. “Metabolism is fundamental to the definition of life.” He even suggests that mental disorders are metabolic disorders of the brain.

And once you start to connect the dots, you may be able to reach the root of your mental health concerns, whatever they might be. “You can start to understand why neurotransmitters might be dysregulated. You can understand why hormones might be dysregulated. You can understand why vitamin and nutrition deficiencies can cause mental illness,” he adds. And ultimately, you can start to understand just how important a balanced diet is for your mental well-being.

Sure, a healthy metabolism depends on so much more than what you eat, but assessing your diet is a solid place to start. Here, Palmer shares his top grocery staples for a balanced mood.

almon.

First up on Palmer’s list? Wild-caught, sustainably sourced salmon, which is rich in omega-3 fatty acids to enhance both metabolic and brain health. Ample amounts of omega-3s in the body have been linked with healthy blood pressure and circulation; by lowering blood pressure, research shows they may even reduce the risk of CHD (coronary heart disease)1.

In terms of mental health, ​​one study shows that omega-3 fats can decrease stress2, and another demonstrates that diets rich in omega-3 fatty acids can help promote a healthy emotional balance and positive mood. All that to say: You may want to load up on omega-3-rich staples, like salmon, mackerel, anchovies, sardines, and herring (commonly referred to as SMASH).

2. Eggs.

Palmer also considers eggs a great addition to your brain-healthy plate (assuming you can tolerate them). Eggs, you see, are rich in choline, the precursor chemical for acetylcholine, one of the most fundamental neurotransmitters3 that’s important for our nervous systems. (And for what it’s worth, eggs also provide some omega-3s).

3.Low-carb veggies.

“I would definitely encourage low-carbohydrate vegetables,” says Palmer. “Spinach, broccoli, asparagus…Those provide fiber, which can be really helpful and beneficial to most people’s guts.” By feeding the healthy microbes in your gut, you inherently support mental health, too, thanks to the gut-brain axis4.

Not to mention, a meta-analysis of eight studies5 found that leafy green vegetable consumption significantly reduced the risk of cardiovascular disease by 15.8 percent—so consider them a major winner for heart and mental health.

4.Olive oil.

To round out his grocery list, “I would probably go with some type of pure, healthy fat,” says Palmer. “If I had to choose just one, it would probably be olive oil.” High-quality olive oil is brimming with polyphenols, which contain powerful brain-protective antioxidants; the monounsaturated fats in olive oil can also help support healthy cholesterol6. And if you’re at all concerned about increasing longevity, you should know that a study published in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology found that consuming more olive oil, particularly in place of other fats, may lead to a longer life.

5.Avocado.

But why choose just one healthy fat? “I love avocado,” says Palmer. “I eat avocado all the time.” Not only do the nutritious green globes have tons of fiber, but they also have magnesium, which has shown to be helpful for depression7.

The takeaway.

According to Palmer, a metabolic approach to mental health is crucial for getting to the root of the issue and optimizing well-being for your whole body. They say any food that’s good for your heart is also great for your brain—and with Palmer’s growing research, we can understand exactly why.

5 Foods That Will Nourish Your Metabolism & Reduce Anxiety | mindbodygreen

Topley’s Top 10 – November 10, 2022

1. History of Rising and Falling Rates

Ben Carlson If you look at the historical data, rising or falling interest rates don’t have nearly as much of an impact on stock market performance as you would think:

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/10/which-asset-class-is-more-attractive-right-now-stocks-or-bonds/


2. Stocks Vs. Investment Grade Bonds 10 Years

JP Morgan

https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/gl/en/o/raising-the-standard-in-private-banking?utm_source=jpmwm-sem-google&utm_medium=all-exact&utm_campaign=us-en-banking-acq&utm_content=bankaccountdesktop-na&c3api=3432,106135134440,kwd-823671394043&gclid=CjwKCAiAvK2bBhB8EiwAZUbP1JLMyD0LVOfT03p-LD_tKzs0q8aw0RYEiNSdAFl06JX3Ls537FKXbBoCEnoQAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds


3. Overnight Lending Rate…Zero to 4% YTD

What is SOFR? The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is intended to replace the US dollar London Interbank Rate (US LIBOR) in future financial contracts. SOFR was selected by the Alternative Reference Rates Committee (ARRC) chaired by the New York Federal Reserve in 2017.

SOFR is the average rate at which institutions can borrow US dollars overnight while posting US Treasury bonds as collateral. Similar to a mortgage rate, SOFR is a secured borrowing rate in the sense that collateral is provided in order to borrow cash. SOFR differs from US LIBOR in that the latter is a rate for unsecured borrowing (where no collateral is posted).

Major central banks globally have taken on similar reforms to replace their US LIBOR equivalents with more reliable rates.

https://www.sofrrate.com/#:~:text=Latest%20SOFR%20rate&text=The%20resulting%20overnight%20LIBOR%20fallback,fixed%200.00644%25%20overnight%20fallback%20spread.


4. Rising Rates vs. Software Stock Valuations

Yahoo Finance Brian Sozzi·Anchor, Editor-at-Large

The below charts from Battery Ventures sheds light on why household name tech companies are trimming the fat — and how many are doing so.

Chart 1: Valuation has compressed across software stocks as interest rates have risen.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meta-and-salesforce-layoffs-big-tech-165954504.html

Salesforce.com -54%…50day thru 200day to downside on weekly chart


5. Venture Capital $539B in Cash

CHARTR BLOG There’s a common refrain in entrepreneurial circles that some of the best companies are built in the toughest of times — now those tougher times appear to be coming.

Keep your powder dryThe last decade has seen record investments from venture capital investors to startups, but things are starting to turn. The latest data from PitchBook reveals that venture capital (VC) investment in 3Q 2022 was down ~$90bn, more than 50% on the same quarter last year.

Though investors wrote smaller checks in the third-quarter, VC funds are actually still awash with cash. Data from Preqin, reported on by the WSJ, shows that VCs are sitting on an astounding $500bn+ of raised cash that is not yet invested, known as dry powder in the VC world.

Choosers can’t be beggarsVCs are understandably cautious about future investments. High-profile unicorns like Robinhood, Rivian and Doordash have been crushed in public markets, and VCs are becoming increasingly selective on the companies they back, as sentiment has pivoted from “growth-at-all-costs” to “stuff-that-makes-money”.

The flip side of the coin is that for founders building genuinely innovative companies, with a sustainable business model — or at least a credible path to one — there’s still some $500bn of capital sitting on the sidelines, waiting to be put to work.

www.chartr.com


6. Microstrategy the CEO who Loaded Up on Bitcoin

$1100 to $170….back at Covid lows

www.stockcharts.com


7. Tangible vs. Intangible Assets in S&P 500 1975-2020

Jonathan Baird

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathanbaird88/


8. Bloomberg Crypto Index -75% from Peak

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-08/asia-set-for-cautious-open-ahead-of-vote-results-markets-wrap?srnd=premium&sref=GGda9y2L


9. Way More Subways Stores than McDonalds.

Visualizing America’s Most Popular Fast Food Chains (visualcapitalist.com)


10. How Great Leaders Use the 3 Laws of Influence to Be Remarkably Persuasive, Backed by Considerable Science

Science reveals how to make facts, logic, and reasoning even more convincing.

BY JEFF HADEN, CONTRIBUTING EDITOR, INC.@JEFF_HADEN

Our boss Ron could talk us into just about anything. He could convince us to stay two hours over, even when there was only 10 minutes left in our shift and we were already mentally clocked out. He could convince us to give a new job changeover process our all, even if it appeared hopeless on paper.

He could convince us to change shifts, change roles, work in other departments… when he asked, we did it.

That seems odd, looking back. Factory floors are rarely hotbeds of supervisor/employee cooperation. Implementing any change usually takes time, with compromise typically skewed heavily towards take, not give.

Plus, as the best-performing crew in the plant we were great to be the supervisor of — anyone put in charge of us would automatically receive outstanding performance evaluations — yet really hard to actually supervise: We knew what we were doing, and treated bosses accordingly.

Hold that thought.

Some people are unusually persuasive. They influence — in a good way — the people around them. They make people feel a part of something bigger than themselves.

In fact, almost every successful person I know is extremely good at persuading other people. Not through manipulation or pressure, but by describing the logic and benefits of an idea to gain agreement.

And by taking advantage of a little science.

The Law of Timing

According to research published in Leadership Quarterly, people tend to be much less charismatic when they’re at a relatively low point in their circadian rhythms, and much more charismatic when they’re at a relatively high point. In non-researcher-speak, morning people are more charismatic early in the day, while night owls are more charismatic later in the day.

Ron was a classic morning person, and whether purposefully or intuitively, he nearly always proposed a change or sought agreement and buy-in within the first couple hours of a shift.

That’s when he felt most enthusiastic and energetic. That’s when he was most “on,” and he took advantage of it.

He also knew his audience. Our crew was made up of morning people, and it didn’t take a neuroscientist — or a chronotype survey — to determine our collective tendency. We all got to work before the shift started to get a jump on the day. When given the choice between coming in early to work overtime or staying later, we always chose to come in early.

We were easy to convince in the morning, and research shows why. Morning people perceived a speaker to be more charismatic when they viewed a videotaped presentation in the morning; morning people who viewed the same video later in the day found that person to be less charismatic.

The same held true for night owls; the same speaker was judged to be significantly more charismatic when viewed in the afternoon or evening than in the morning.

Want to persuade? Want to inspire and motivate? First consider your circadian rhythm. Think about the time of day you feel most energetic and enthusiastic, at least in broad terms like morning or afternoon. Then think about the people you want to inspire and motivate.

While it’s unlikely they’re all either larks or night owls, odds are more fall in one camp than the other. Then do your best to line up your tendency with theirs.

The Law of Speed

According to a study published in Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, people who talk at a relatively fast rate are generally perceived to be more credible and intelligent than people who speak more slowly.

Since speed implies certainty — and Ron was usually nothing if not certain — talking fast often made him more persuasive.

But not always. As with any communication, the nature of your audience also matters. According to a study published in Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin:

  • If your audience is likely to disagree with you, speak faster.
  • If your audience is likely to agree with you, speak slower.

Why?

  • When your audience is skeptical, speaking faster gives them less time to come up with objections or counterarguments.
  • When your audience is inclined to agree, speaking slowly gives them time to mentally weigh in with a few of their own thoughts, and at least partly convince themselves. (It’s easy to persuade someone of something they already feel makes sense.)

When Ron thought we would be skeptical, he was fairly rapid-fire. But when he knew we were likely to agree, he slowed down. He gave us time to nod our heads. To say to ourselves, “Yep, that makes sense, and here’s why.”

Because he knew that what mattered most was how we received his message.

Not the way he wanted, through habit or intention, to deliver it.

The Law of Volume

I know what you’re thinking: Facts, logic, and reasoning should win the day — not seemingly manipulative strategies like considering the time of day or adjusting your rate of speech.

But if you truly believe in your decision, idea, or proposal, it only makes sense to do everything you can to help you persuade others to join you.

And besides: People don’t mind a little “manipulation.” As the authors of a 2019 study published by the American Psychological Association write:

Communicators engaging in paralinguistic persuasion attempts [i.e., modulating their voice to persuade] naturally use paralinguistic cues that influence perceivers’ attitudes and choice.

Rather than being effective because they go undetected, however, the results suggest a subtler possibility. Even when they are detected, paralinguistic attempts succeed because they make communicators seem more confident without undermining their perceived sincerity. Consequently, speakers’ confident vocal demeanor persuades others by serving as a signal that they more strongly endorse the stance they take in their message.

Further, we find that paralinguistic approaches to persuasion can be uniquely effective even when linguistic ones are not. A cross-study exploratory analysis and replication experiment reveal that communicators tend to speak louder and vary their volume during paralinguistic persuasion attempts, both of which signal confidence and, in turn, facilitate persuasion.

I know that’s a lot, so let’s unpack it. Talking louder makes you seem more confident. Talking softer makes you seem more competent and warm. The combination is extremely powerful.

Even if people know you’re doing it on purpose.

Take Ron. I still remember the time he wanted us to work two months of night shift in a row rather than one. When he listed the objective reasons why the change made sense — WIP leveling, utilizing open equipment, component timing, etc. — he spoke fairly loudly. He had total command of the facts, and he showed it.

But when he talked about the impact on us, he spoke so softly we had to lean forward to hear him. “Look,” he said. “I know this is a lot to ask. Doing two months of nights will suck. I wish there was another option. But we’re in a bind, and we need you. Be honest, there’s a lot of pressure on me to make this happen, so I need you, too.”

Did we feel manipulated? A little, maybe. But we didn’t care. We knew the situation. Just as importantly, we trusted Ron. We knew he needed to convince us, and we were OK with that.

Because persuading and convincing isn’t a game to be won or lost. The best outcome is when both sides agree because they genuinely agree, not because one side feels pushed or forced.

So make sure you use your powers of persuasion to help people objectively understand why they should be convinced. Do that, and they are much more likely to persuade themselves, which means their agreement will result not just in buy-in, but also in action.

Because persuasion without action is persuasion at all.

It’s just a lot of talk.

Topley’s Top 10 – November 08, 2022

Fact for the day…The Afghan war lasted nine years. It resulted in the death of 15,000 Russian soldiers. In eight months in Ukraine, Russia has already lost 71,000 lives. One thousand died in a single day last week. 

1. S&P 500 Ex-Top 10 Tech Names Historical Chart

Dan Stratemeier Managing DirectorEquities, Event Driven Strategies Jefferies LLC


2. Bond Volatility Index +110% One Year.

https://www.google.com/search?q=move+index+chart&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS898US898&oq=move+index+chart&aqs=chrome..69i57j35i39j0i22i30l4j0i390l4.2728j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8


3. 20 Year Treasury Year to Date -13% More than S&P 500

20 Year Treasury -35% YTD  vs. S&P 500 -22%

www.yahoofinance.com


4. Euro Stoxx Large Cap Stocks Nowhere for 20 Years

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/FEZ:NYSEARCA?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiS_IOKoZz7AhWUmYkEHRaEDQUQ3ecFegQITxAg


5. Shale Unemployment Back to 2005 Levels.

From The Daily Shot Blog https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-november-7th-2022/


6. FED Looking at $3.9 Trillion in Balance Sheet Shrinkage

Barrons By Lisa Beilfuss  Markets are on two counts oblivious to the significance of QT, says Solomon Tadesse, head of quantitative equities strategies North America at Société Générale. His model says that if the Fed is to bring inflation back to its 2% target, then some $3.9 trillion in balance-sheet shrinkage must accompany a policy rate of at least 4.5%. That amount of QT, he says, is equivalent to an additional 4.5 percentage points of tightening.

Why Higher Interest Rates Won’t Solve the Inflation Problem https://www.barrons.com/articles/fed-rate-hikes-inflation-quantitative-tightening-51667598316?mod=past_editions


7. Central Banks Bought Double the Previous Record of Gold Last Quarter

But, as we detailed earlier today, central banks bought 399 tons of bullion in the third quarter, almost double the previous record, according to the World Gold Council.

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/gold-market-roiled-mystery-buyer-waves-300-tonnes


8. Residential Real Estate Stats

JP Morgan Guide to the Markets

https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/


9. How Russia Pays for War

Found at Barry Ritholtz The Big Picture 10 Sunday Reads – The Big Picture (ritholtz.com)


10. The Fundamental Difference Between Decisions and Actions: Why Jeff Bezos Says Your Goal Is to Make 3 Good Decisions per Day

Because most ‘decisions’ shouldn’t be open to consideration, much less deliberation.

 

BY JEFF HADEN, CONTRIBUTING EDITOR, INC.@JEFF_HADEN

 

Jeff Bezos. Photo: Getty Images

You probably feel like you make dozens of decisions every day, especially when the buck stops with you. Whether to expedite shipping on an order. Whether to send a certain email. Whether to address an employee’s questionable behavior.

And definitely on a personal level, because that’s when the buck always stops with you. Whether to get up and going or hit the snooze button. Whether to ditch the food you packed and go out for lunch instead. 

But those aren’t really decisions, because you already know what to do. Nearly everything we “decide” already has an answer.

Going to miss the delivery date? Expedite the shipping. Need to make sure something is clear? Send the email. Want to build a better team? Address the behavior now; performance issues almost never take care of themselves.

The same is true for personal “decisions.” The nine minutes of sleep you get after hitting the snooze button isn’t restorative sleep; you’re better off setting your alarm for nine minutes later. (Or going to bed earlier.) The food you packed is — or should be — an integral part of your healthy lifestyle; going out for lunch when you didn’t plan to is almost never better for you. (If only because you’ll feel guilty later for having given in to temptation.)

That’s the beauty of processes and routines. Rules aren’t restrictive. Rules are liberating, because rules free you up from having to make “decisions.” Instead of wasting mental energy and willpower on “choosing,” all you have to do is act. 

Over time, those actions become habits. Then you definitely don’t need to make a decision, because habits are effortless. (In both good and bad ways, obviously.)

So what happens when you strip out all those “decisions”?

Three Great Decisions

As Jeff Bezos says, you don’t get paid to make thousands of decisions every day. You get paid to make a small number of high-quality decisions. 

As Bezos wrote for Fast Company:

You need to be thinking two or three years in advance, and if you are, then why do I need to make a hundred decisions today? If I make three good decisions a day, that’s enough, and they should just be as high quality as I can make them.

Warren Buffett says he’s good if he makes three good decisions a year, and I really believe that.

Clearly there’s a huge difference between making three good decisions per day, and three good decisions per year. Yet that difference is also easy to explain.

Launching a startup, like starting anything from a relatively blank slate, requires making seemingly countless decisions. Infrastructure, branding, pricing strategies, marketing strategies–everything is up in the air. It’s impossible, as Bezos says, to “work in the future” when you haven’t figured out the present. 

But you’ve made a decision; you no longer have to “decide.” Barring evidence that decision was wrong and needs to be revisited, all you have to do is act. With time, the number of decisions you need to make every day should rapidly decline.

Which means you can focus all that mental energy on making strategic, rather than tactical decisions. You can focus on making decisions that set the course for the next months, or even years. To start a business, or not. To launch a new product line, or not. To open a new location, or not.

To take your life — health, education, relationships, etc. — in a new direction, or not.

Making fewer “decisions” frees you up to think about the things that will make the biggest difference in your professional and personal life.

Think of it that way, and you really don’t need to make more than three good decisions a year.

Especially if those decisions help you become the person you want to b

The Fundamental Difference Between Decisions and Actions: Why Jeff Bezos Says Your Goal Is to Make 3 Good Decisions per Day | Inc.com

Topley’s Top 10 – November 07, 2022

1. Year Over Year Change in Yields Fixed Income

JP Morgan

https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/gl/en/insights


2. Opening of New Retail Brokerage Accounts Goes Negative

From Callum Thomas Chart Storm Broke Brokerage Accounts:  For a while there folk couldn’t open brokerage accounts fast enough… now they are walking away as the get rich quick dreams turn to get poor quick nightmares. A good reminder that “get rich quick” is often a false promise, and at best a treacherous expedition.

Source:  @Lvieweconomics via @SnippetFinance

https://www.financialsense.com/contributors/callum-thomas


3. Software Stock Correction Approaching -50% from Highs

IGV Tech Software ETF $440 to $240..trading below 200 week moving average

www.stockcharts.com


4. Gold vs. Rest of Commodity Index

Gold poor inflation hedge especially with strong dollar…this chart compares GLD to broad commodities ETF COMT…straight down

www.stockcharts.com


5. Gold Miners -50% Correction

Junior Gold miners chart…50day thru 200day to downside on weekly chart

www.stockcharts.com


6. The Rise of Quant Investing

www.chartr.com


7. The Musk Empire

https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/corporate/story/twitter-tesla-spacex-a-look-at-elon-musks-growing-empire-331306-2022-04-26


8. America’s 10 fastest-growing population centers

Madalyn Mendoza-Axios

Axios on facebook

Axios on twitter

Axios on linkedin

Axios on emailTechnology jobs and the rebound in tourism are fueling a reshuffling of America’s population centers, according to an October report by a nonpartisan think tank affiliated with the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

Driving the news: The American Growth Project by the Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise, a business policy think tank, found that the top 10 fastest-growing cities in the U.S. are moving the “center of gravity” for economic activity away from the East Coast, Kenan executive director Gregory Brown tells Axios.

  • The San Francisco Bay Area, Austin, Seattle, Raleigh and Durham, Dallas, Denver, Salt Lake City, Charlotte, New Orleans, and Orlando make up the top rankings.

Why it matters: These are America’s next boomtowns — if local leaders find ways to capitalize on burgeoning industries, Brown says.

  • These cities will need to invest in infrastructure, such as housing, plus education and job training to fuel their growth potential, according to the report.

The methodology: Researchers built the list by weighing factors that included county-level employment rates and economic output for each city.

The intrigue: Brown points to No. 2 Austin as an example of what could be on the horizon for lower-ranked cities.

  • In two years, the median home value there grew from $349,156 to $566,479, according to the research.
  • “It’s going to be a big change over the next few years for people who live [in the 10 cities] to see how you suddenly become a much bigger, more vibrant city,” Brown says.

Zoom in: A strong tech industry, buoyed by pandemic gains for companies like Zoom, secured the top two spots for the San Francisco Bay Area and Austin — for now.

  • Hiring freezes and declining real estate trends could be “worrisome” for San Francisco and evidence that Austin’s labor boom may have peaked, the research says.

Yes, but: Younger residents are contributing to stable growth prospects for cities like Seattle (No. 3) and Denver (No. 6).

  • The report notes that Seattle, home to Amazon and Microsoft, is a leader in clean energy, which researchers believe attracts young job seekers.
  • Millennials are helping drive Denver’s economy, with researchers pointing to a separate study that found 71% of people who lived in Denver at age 16 stayed or had returned by age 26.
  • Meanwhile, a rebound in tourism and hospitality in the past year helped push Orlando and New Orleans into the top 10.

Go deeper: Dallas is growing really fast

https://www.axios.com/2022/11/05/fastest-growing-cities-us


9. Increase in Active Home Listings….Still Well Below Pre-Covid

NYT_Active listings were up nearly 27 percent in September, compared to September 2021, but still 40 percent below September 2019, before the pandemic. Stephanos Chen

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/04/realestate/housing-market-interest-rates.html


10. The Best Breakfast for Your Brain

Psychology Today Two powerful ways to upgrade your first meal of the day. Austin Perlmutter M.D.

KEY POINTS

  • Most typical breakfast foods are high in sugar and carbs that may damage metabolic health and brain wellness.
  • Replacing breakfast foods rich in added sugar and highly processed carbs with healthy fat, protein, and fiber supports brain health.
  • One can add in sources of key brain-boosting foods for an extra shot of brain health support each morning.

 

You’ve heard it before: “Breakfast is the most important meal of the day.” But the reality is that for most people, what we call “breakfast” is far from optimal for our health. Due to a combination of marketing, misleading health advice, and our modern-day schedules, most of the foods that pass as breakfast are in fact the very things that are linked to worse overall wellness of our bodies and brains, and may in fact contribute to a higher risk for developing brain and mood disorders.

So what should we be eating for our first meal of the day? Here are two great ways to help improve your breakfast quality to optimize brain health:

1. Replace added sugar and highly processed carbs with healthy fat, protein, and fiber

Over the years, we’ve been fed a number of unhelpful pieces of advice about what constitutes a “healthy diet.” One of the clearest examples relates to our breakfast. The distortion here is as follows: Eating a sugary, refined carbohydrate meal first thing in the morning is somehow “healthy,” even though these are the exact types of meals that may leave us hungry and throw our metabolic health into disarray. This is incredibly important, as poor metabolic health is increasingly shown to map onto our risk for brain issues like dementia.

In the United States, the most common breakfast choice for people who regularly eat breakfast is cold cereal. And while this is an incredibly convenient option, most cold cereals are primarily highly processed carbohydrates, low in fiber, fat, and protein, and often accompanied by added sugar. The combination of highly processed carbs and added sugar is unfortunately the predominant theme in breakfast, with muffins, danishes or bagels/toast, pancakes, and waffles representing common examples. What about breakfast bars and granola? They may sound healthy, but they’re often packed with added sugar.

How should we counter the issues represented by conventional breakfasts? Look to bring three elements into your meal whenever you can. These include fiber, protein, and healthy fat. Great examples of protein sources include Greek yogurt, eggs, tofu (if you eat soy), protein powder, and nut butters. Healthier fat sources include olive oil, nut butters, seeds, and avocado. And great sources of fiber include chia seeds, vegetables, and beans. Some great on-the-go options are nuts, Greek yogurt, and protein shakes (look for one without much-added sugar). If you’re craving waffles, pancakes and muffins, try looking for artisanal whole-grain (or non-grain flours) that may be higher in protein and fiber, e.g., buckwheat and almond flour). Similarly, if you want cereal, look for brands that focus on fiber, protein, and minimal added sugar.

2. Add in these four brain-boosting foods

In addition to making changes to the general composition of your breakfast, you may want to consider adding in some specific foods that are linked to brain wellness because they’re rich in key brain health nutrients like omega-3 fats, plant nutrients, fiber, and certain vitamins and minerals. To this end, some of the foods that may best support a healthy brain include the following.

  1. Extra-virgin olive oil is packed with plant nutrients and healthy fat and is linked to better brain health. It makes a delicious drizzle on top of eggs and other savory breakfasts!
  2. Coldwater fish like salmon, mackerel, anchovies, sardines, and herring (the SMASH fish) are packed with key omega-3 fats shown to be connected to better brain function.
  3. Dark leafy greens like chard, kale, spinach, and collard greens are rich in plant nutrients, vitamins, and minerals, as well as fiber that may support a healthier brain.
  4. Nuts and seeds are great sources of omega-3 fats as well as fiber and key vitamins and minerals. These are an amazing addition to a brain-healthy breakfast. Walnuts, chia seeds, and pumpkin seeds may be especially excellent choices.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-modern-brain/202211/the-best-breakfast-your-brain

Topley’s Top 10 – November 04, 2022

1. History of 3 Month to 10 Year Yield Curve Inversion

By Barry Gilbert LPL Research

https://iplresearch.com/2022/11/01/how-markets-respond-to-yield-curve-inversions/#more-25984


2. Previoius Technology Stock Peaks

Jonathan Baird The accompanying chart illustrates 3 major peaks in the valuation of tech-related shares versus the S&P 500, the most recent being in the second half of 2021 which signaled the end of the last bull market. The previous two events proved to be major turning points for stock markets.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathanbaird88/


3. Fed Terminal Rate Now Above 5%

ZeroHedge Terminal rate expectations ended the day at new cycle highs (above 5.10%) and rate-cut expectations shifted hawkishly…

Odds of 75bps. In December

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-pulls-rug-out-euphoric-fomc-statement-reaction-terminal-rate-jumps


4. Another Sentiment Indicator at Lows ..CEO Business Confidence


5. Two Day Sell Off but VIX Going Down

 VIX $33 down to $25

www.stockcharts.com


6. Earnings Beat Rate Shrinking

Liz Ann Sonders Schwab Even with the lowered bar, the “beat rate” (percentage of companies exceeding consensus expectations) continues to weaken relative to the historic highs during the first half of last year. As shown below, 73% of companies have beaten expectations to the collective tune of only 4% (also well down from more than 20% at the start of last year).

Descending beats

As shown below, after a brief lift toward positive territory, the Citi U.S. Earnings Revisions Index sank again into negative territory. We continue to believe the path of least resistance for earnings estimates for the remainder of this year and into at least the first half of next year is lower.

Negative net revisions

Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg, as of 10/21/2022.

Citi U.S. Earnings Revisions Index measures the number of equity analyst revisions upgrades (positive) and downgrades (negative).

https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/disappearing-act-earnings


7. Job Changers Getting Big Raises

Wolf Street To beat CPI inflation that has been raging at 8% to 9% this year, workers have to change jobs; if they’re not changing jobs – the loyal employees who stick it out through thick and thin – well, they might appreciate the pay increases, but they’re just falling further behind.

Job Openings just starting to roll over

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/11/02/wages-soar-by-7-7-but-job-hoppers-boost-their-pay-by-15-2-leveraging-this-historically-tight-labor-market/


8. Number of Veterans in Congress

The Daily Shot Blog Food for Thought: Lastly, here’s a look at the share of military veterans in Congress.

Source: Pew Research Center Read full article

https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-november-2nd-2022/


9. Blockbuster Video Passed on Buying Netflix for $50m

ENTERTAINMENT

‘Blockbuster’ comes to Netflix

Netflix released its newest original comedy, Blockbuster, today. The show is about the last remaining branded video rental store—which feels a little personal, since Netflix helped stamp out its once-dominant competitor.

At Blockbuster’s peak, the movie rental chain had 9,000 stores and raked in $6 billion in annual revenue, mainly from our 10 Things I Hate About You late fees.

But in the late ’90s, Blockbuster passed on the chance to buy Netflix for $50 million. Not a great call, since the company is now worth over $120 billion.

Instead, Blockbuster partnered with Enron to create its own video-on-demand platform. In 2001, the chain abandoned the project, thinking the future of the industry would still involve blue-carpeted video rental stores. Over the next decade Blockbuster couldn’t keep up with Netflix and filed for bankruptcy. As of 2018 only one store, more of a shrine to the way things were than an actual business, remains in Bend, Oregon.

And now…Netflix, the once scrappy underdog that defeated Blockbuster, is back to hustling as it strives to set itself apart from other streaming services. The company rolled out its first ad-supported tier today to juice flagging subscriber numbers.—MM

         

 

https://www.morningbrew.com/daily


10. A Sense of Urgency

The Daily Stoic

In the kitchen at Per Se, one of the best restaurants in the world, there is a sign. All it says is: A Sense of Urgency. That’s what a great chef, a great service staff, a great organization has. A great person needs it too.

Yet far too many of us lack this. In Meditations, Marcus Aurelius chides himself for acting as if he’s going to live forever, as if he has unlimited time. “You could be good today,” he writes, “instead you choose tomorrow.” He tells himself he needs to concentrate like a Roman and do the task in front of him as if it was the last thing he was doing in his life. In short, he needs to attack everything with a sense of urgency.

We all do. We say we’re doing it, that we’re working on something. But are you? Where is the progress that proves it? It seems more like you’re acting like you have forever, that the customer isn’t all that important, that it doesn’t matter if the food gets cold. You need to hurry up.You need to get after it.

Not with frenzy or haste, but with all deliberate speed. With purpose. With the concentration of a Roman, the clarity of a person who understands that tomorrow is not a guarantee. People, progress, your destiny–it’s waiting on you. It demands a sense of urgency.

https://dailystoic.com/