The higher bond yields of today have come after much pain for existing investors.
This is by far the longest bond bear market in history, at 38 months and counting.
And with the current drawdown of over 15%, absent a sharp decline in yields it will take a good while longer for investors to recover from these losses.
The 15% loss in the US bond market over the past three years is unprecedented. But it’s important to remember that what preceded this decline was also unprecedented – that being the lowest bond yields in history
3. Put/Call Ratio Surged Last Week Hitting 5 Year High Levels
Equities: The put-call ratio surged this week, pointing to bearish sentiment.
5. Defensive Consumer Staple Stocks Leading this Selloff
VDC Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF…50day thru 200day to downside.
6. Bitcoin Less Volatile than U.S. Treasuries in 2023
Bespoke Investment Group Bitcoin Grows Up-When you think about volatility in various asset classes, crypto is typically considered the most volatile, and based on how it has traded over the last seven years, the reputation is well deserved. Since the start of 2017, when bitcoin’s price first crossed above $1,000 through now, bitcoin’s average daily percentage move has been 2.7% (chart below). This year, though, the average daily percentage move has been significantly less at a subdued 1.57%, and just recently, its average daily move over the prior two months dropped below 1%. That’s less volatile than the treasury market! There’s still three months left in the year, but barring some major volatility, bitcoin is on pace for its least volatile year in terms of day-to-day volatility on record. As the years have progressed, bitcoin has clearly become a more seasoned asset class.
Sometimes, athletes’ worries transform into anger or physical symptoms.
The best way to excel during a competition is to focus on the play at hand.
By focusing on the present, athletes are more are more likely to be able to play “in the zone.”
Athletes often report that they have trouble keeping their minds in the game. They may worry about a previous missed play, whether they will make a poor play, whether they will live up to their coaches’ expectations, or whether they will win.
Some worry about injuring themselves, especially if they have previously experienced an injury. In team sports, athletes often worry about letting down their team, team cohesion or conflicts with teammates, and occasionally become upset with the failures of their teammates.
Sometimes, athletes’ worries transform into anger, which they might take out on themselves, their teammates, or even their coaches, relatives, or friends. In other cases, their worries can turn into physical symptoms such as shortness of breath, stomachaches, or headaches. In the latter case, if the athletes are evaluated by a medical practitioner who focuses on addressing their symptoms, rather than the underlying anxiety, patients sometimes are treated needlessly with medications.
The best way to excel during a sports competition is to focus on the play at hand as much as possible. During a competition, thinking about what just happened, or how the play may be affected by factors outside of the athlete’s control, serve as distractions that can lead to a poorer outcome in the game.
For instance, worrying about how the outcome of a single play could affect the entire game adds extra stress that can end up disrupting the play. It should also be emphasized that when team athletes play poorly, including because they become distracted, this can affect the morale and performance of their teammates.
A famous quote by theologist Reinhold Niebuhr is worth keeping in mind while thinking about how to best perform in a competition:
“God grant me the serenity To accept the things I cannot change, Courage to change the things I can, and Wisdomto know the difference.”
During a competition, athletes should focus only on what they can change: their own performance at that time, and, in team sports, being as supportive as possible of their teammates, which can enhance their team performance.
There are several methods that athletes can use to train themselves to focus on the present. By doing so, athletes are more apt to find themselves playing seemingly effortlessly “in the zone.”
PracticeMindfulness. Mindfulness exercises can be used to train the brain to focus on a single thought. For instance, athletes can learn to focus solely on their breath while meditating. When they find their mind wandering from thinking about the breath, they should gently, and non-judgmentally refocus on their breathing. By learning how to better focus their minds during meditation, athletes can similarly learn to focus better on the play at hand.
Calm Breathing. Remaining calm during sports can help athletes stay in the moment. Athletes can calm themselves with their breathing, while resting between plays: They can inhale slowly through the nose, hold their breath momentarily, and then exhale slowly through the mouth. This breathing pattern can be repeated several times to achieve even more calmness.
Be Aware of the Details. Again, while resting between plays, athletes can pay attention to small details, which helps ground them in the moment. For instance, an athlete might pay close attention to what they can see, hear, smell, and touch during a competition. How are any boundaries marked? With chalk, paint, or rocks? What does the equipment (if applicable) look and feel like? What sounds are made during the sport? What odors might be perceived where the sport takes place?
Focus on the Process. Focusing on the mechanics of a play, including the correct actions that need to be taken by the athlete and reactions of the competitors, helps keep the mind in the present.
One Play at a Time. Rather than thinking about competitions as a whole, it can be helpful to focus on accomplishing one play at a time to the best of the athletes’ ability. This approach allows athletes to string together multiple well-executed maneuvers, with minimal distractions.
Embrace Pressure and Mistakes. Athletes can learn to view handling pressure and mistakes as ways to improve rather than as impediments to their performance. Dealing well with mistakes at the moment they occur, including through correcting them efficiently, and moving on to the next play, presents learning opportunities. Athletes also can rise to new levels of achievement by considering the knowledge that is gained from difficult experiences and thereafter implementing new approaches to their athletic endeavors.
Rehearse inHypnosis. The hypnotic state can be used as an arena in which athletes can practice remaining in the moment during competitions. Athletes can repeatedly imagine participating in their sport while being “in the zone” and thereby train their minds to remain focused during actual competitions.
Takeaway
Athletes should remember that they have the power within themselves to better focus their minds, and thus excel in their sport. It is important to remain patient during this process as mind/body skills improve with repetition in the same way that athletic success improves with physical practice.
1. Found this Chart in an 2020 Slide Deck…We Hit 140-Year Low in Yield on 60/40 Portfolio Before Fed Started Raising Rates.
2. U.S. Dollar About to Break-Out to New Highs.
3. U.S. Tech Stocks vs. China’s Tech Stocks
This chart shows Nasdaq 100 vs. China Tech ETF….U.S. straight up
4. Long-Term Treasuries Equal to Stock Market Crash of Great Financial Crisis
Callum Thomas @Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm). Deep Drawdown: A “wow-chart” to kick-off this session — turns out long-term treasuries are suffering a deeper peak-to-trough drawdown than what happened to stocks during the great financial crisis. I would note that this is price only, and the total return is slightly less bad (albeit only by 5 ppts). But still, simply catastrophic.
5. A Couple Sentiment Charts from Dave Lutz at Jones Trading.
SentimentTrader notes We’ve reached the “relentless” phase of the rise in yields. News articles mentioning that word and the bond market have spiked to the 2nd-highest in 8+ years. It was only higher once, which was almost exactly a year ago.
The level of Excessive Pessimism is now below what was registered at the December 2022 and March 2023 lows, based on the NDR_Research Daily Trading Sentiment Composite
6. Real rates rising in recent months on soft landing hopes
Nasdaq Dorsey Wright In fact, real 10 year rates are already well above expected long-term inflation. Since April, inflation expectations have been mostly unchanged, at around 2.5%. That means “real” (after inflation returns) rates have gone from negative (-1.0%) in 2022, to almost +2.5%.
That’s partly because the economy is strong. In the last few months, there’s been plenty of strong economic data (low unemployment, resilient consumer spending, upward revisions to business investment). That in turn means we don’t need negative real rates any more to avoid a recession.
7. Microsoft Pulls Right Back to May Support Level…Low Key -15% Correction.
My daughter has unfortunately inherited my husband’s complete disinterest in sleep, and basically from birth has fought any and all attempts to put her to bed (thanks, honey). To cope with her tossing and turning, we developed a game we call “sleepy thoughts.” Every time I tuck her in at night I offer some pleasant but distracting scenario or a question for her to think about.
If you were an astronaut on a mission to Mars, who would you want to take with you and why? If you could have any birthday party you can dream up, what would it be like? Please describe in great detail. What is cuter, a marmot, an otter, or a bunny? (I was solidly team marmot, while she was forcefully in favor of the otter.)
I do this because I prefer her to be pondering cake flavors and furry critters rather than bothering me with complaints in the evening. But I just read an article that suggests I may have stumbled onto a real, scientifically validated trick for easier bedtimes, and one that exhausted adult entrepreneurs can use on themselves as well.
The bedtime thoughts of good sleepers versus insomniacs
The insight comes from a pair of Australian psychologists, Melinda Jackson and Hailey Meakin, who have investigated a question that is as everyday as it is impactful: What exactly do people think about when they’re lying in bed trying to sleep at night, and how does that impact their sleep?
If you’ve ever watched the person next to you peacefully conk out in a matter of minutes and wondered exactly what is happening in their head, Jackson and Meakin’s recent article for The Conversation may finally satisfy your curiosity.
“It turns out people who sleep well and those who sleep poorly have different kinds of thoughts before bed,” they write. “Good sleepers report experiencing mostly visual sensory images as they drift to sleep — seeing people and objects, and having dream-like experiences. They may have less ordered thoughts and more hallucinatory experiences, such as imagining you’re participating in events in the real world.”
Contrast that with insomnia sufferers, who tend to have pre-sleep thoughts that are “more focused on planning and problem-solving. These thoughts are also generally more unpleasant and less random than those of good sleepers. People with insomnia are also more likely to stress about sleep as they’re trying to sleep, leading to a vicious cycle; putting effort into sleep actually wakes you up more.”
Good sleepers imagine what it would be like to live in ancient Rome, or what they’d do if they met their childhood Hollywood crush. Bad sleepers are doing their taxes in their heads. Which, after you hear the psychologists lay it out, explains a lot about why some of us drift off on a cloud of idle imaginings and others can never seem to relax enough for sleep.
“Sleepy thoughts” work for adults too
While it’s fun to have science verify what many people suspected, noting that bad sleepers have trouble shutting off the worry and planning portions of their brains is hardly a huge shock. What’s more useful in Jackson and Meakin’s piece is when they move to suggestions on how people can use this insight to actively become more like those people who fall asleep in seconds.
I give my daughter “sleepy thoughts” to keep her out of my hair. But reading this article suggested to me that I may have inadvertently also found a way to nudge her toward the kind of bedtime imaginings that lead to easier, better sleep. And the psychologists confirm that adults can use this basic idea too.
“The good news is there are techniques you can use to change the style and content of your pre-sleep thoughts. They could help reduce nighttime cognitive arousal or replace unwanted thoughts with more pleasant ones. These techniques are called ‘cognitive refocusing,'” they explain.
Another, more colloquial way to describe this technique would be distracting yourself with pleasant night time “sleepy thoughts.” “Decide before you go to bed what you’ll focus on as you lie there waiting for sleep to come. Pick an engaging cognitive task with enough scope and breadth to maintain your interest and attention — without causing emotional or physical arousal. So, nothing too scary, thrilling, or stressful,” they instruct.
Feel free to steal my idea and ponder the relative cuteness of various animals, but Jackson and Meakin also offer some more adult-friendly suggestions like mentally redesigning a room in your house, replaying a particularly thrilling section of the big game (and maybe coming up with a game plan for the next one), or reciting lyrics from your favorite album.
Hopefully, these pleasant, diverting thoughts will crowd out any impulse you have to go over and over your to-do list or replay the most embarrassing moment of your day. And that, studies show, can lead to measurable improvements in your ability to get to sleep fast and slumber peacefully.
No one sleep technique is a silver bullet, though, so the article also stresses the importance of decent sleep hygiene. If you’re binge-watching horror films for hours before bed or going to sleep at wildly different times every night, don’t expect any kind of sleepy thought to be a magic solution. “Cognitive refocusing” is a useful technique to have in your arsenal though, as are these other research-backed tips on how to fall asleep faster we’ve featured here on Inc.com in the past.
INC.COM The opinions expressed here by Inc.com columnists are their own, not those of Inc.com.
2. See Above Value Underperforming on Q3 Pullback S&P Pure Value Back to June Lows…50day thru 200day to downside
3. Value Stocks Keep Getting Cheaper
4. Dividend Paying Stocks Under Pressure….
WSJ By Hardika SinghFewer than 30 stocks in the S&P 500 have a dividend yield above that on the six-month Treasury bill, according to FactSet.
That is a shift from much of the past decade when interest rates were near zero and hundreds of stocks within the index offered higher yields. At the end of 2021, before rates began to rise, there were 379 index constituents that offered a better yield than the Treasury bill, according to Birinyi Associates.
To raise more emotionally intelligent kids, parents need to speak to them in emotionally intelligent ways.
As a Harvard-trained neuropsychologist, I teach people communication styles that promote connection and independence, both of which are vital if you want to have strong, healthy and empathetic relationships.
Here are three phrases that parents of emotionally intelligent kids never use — and what to say instead:
1. “Why can’t you be more motivated?”
The brain is wired to excel when and where it can. So when children struggle, it’s not because they don’t want to do well — it’s because they simply can’t.
In other words, the issue isn’t their motivation. It’s that there is a disconnect between your expectations as a parent and their capabilities.
What to say instead: The emotionally intelligent response is to be curious about where your child’s motivation and abilities intersect.
Let’s say your kid is spending too much time playing video games and too little on reading.
Avoid asking, “Why aren’t you more motivated to read books?” Instead, try an open-ended question: “I see you really like video games. I’d love to hear what you like about them so much. Would you share with me?”
I once worked with parents whose daughter had sensory difficulties. They were frustrated because at the doctor’s office, she refused to get out of the car.
But once they invited her into the conversation, they learned that she was actually bothered by the music played in the doctor’s office. This was easily corrected with a pair of earplugs.
Ultimately, the real issue was that the parents weren’t hearing the needs of their kid.
What to say instead: Children’s brains are wired for autonomy and a need to explore the world based on their own identity, not your beliefs about who they should be.
If you’re locked in a disagreement with a seemingly willful kid, instead of asking them why they don’t listen, consider asking, “Have I listened to you?”
Emotionally intelligent parents don’t strive for compliance from their children, but for connection. They need to know that you are willing to hear the truth of their experience.
3. “You are being so disrespectful!”
I frequently see parents jumping to broad — and catastrophic — conclusions about their child’s behavior based on their own insecurities.
One couple told me, “Our teenager doesn’t respect us,” because they didn’t listen when they were told to finish their science homework. But once the parents brought their concern up in a safe, low-stakes conversation, their teenager emphatically replied, “I do respect you! Science is just hard for me.”
What to say instead: The most emotionally intelligent approach to fears that your kid doesn’t respect you is to ask specific, non-judgmental questions, and then explicitly affirm your willingness to listen.
It could sound like this: “I noticed you got a 64% on your last science test. Would you be willing to talk about it? I just want to hear about your experience.”
Children’s feelings rub off on us. When they’re rattled, we get rattled. So when big emotions arise, it’s natural to want to control your child’s feelings by telling them to be quiet, settle down, or listen more closely. But as a parent, your job is not to control your children’s emotions — it’s to master your own.
Dr. Julia DiGangi, PhD, is a neuropsychologist and and author of ”Energy Rising: The Neuroscience of Leading with Emotional Power.″ She completed her residency at Harvard Medical School, Boston University School of Medicine, and the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. She studied genetics, trauma and resilience at Columbia, the University of Chicago and Georgetown. Follow her on Instagram @drjuliadigangi.
Bespoke Investment Group Case Shiller home price data published by S&P CoreLogic was released earlier this week for July 2023 (it comes out on a two-month lag). As shown below, 19 of 20 cities posted month-over-month gains, with the National index up 0.6% MoM and up 0.98% year-over-year. Las Vegas saw the biggest monthly gain at 1.12%, while Portland was the only city to see a monthly decline.
The big news from the report was that the National index and ten of twenty cities once again hit new all-time highs, erasing declines seen from mid-2022 through early 2023. The National index saw home prices fall 5% from its prior high last June to its low this January, but it has bounced back by 6% since then to notch new highs. The ten cities to also make new highs were: New York, Minneapolis, Miami, Detroit, DC, Cleveland, Chicago, Charlotte, Boston, and Atlanta.
Four cities remain 5%+ below their prior highs: Phoenix (-6.7%), Las Vegas (-7.2%), Seattle (-10.1%), and San Francisco (-10.8%).
Airlines and planemakers obsess about reducing jet-fuel consumption by constantly finding new ways to reduce aircraft weight. They may have new allies in Ozempic and other similar slimming medications.
United Airlines Holdings Inc. would save $80 million a year if the average passenger weight falls by 10 pounds, Sheila Kahyaoglu, a Jefferies Financial analyst, estimated in a report Friday. Her work was part of a broader Jefferies analysis of public enthusiasm for the drug and potential beneficiaries of its use.
There could be a more than $100 billion global market for such medicines, with sales climbing quickly through the end of the decade, the review concluded. Ozempic is made by Novo Nordisk A/S.
Weight is a major concern for airlines because the more a plane weighs, the more fuel it burns. Fuel and labor are the two largest expenses for carriers, with fuel accounting for about 25%. Over the years airlines have used a variety of methods to reduce pounds on flights, like removing magazines and switching to lower-weight dishes, utensils and beverage carts.
If the average passenger lost 10 pounds, this would trim 1,790 pounds from every United flight, implying a savings of 27.6 million gallons a year, the analyst estimated. At an average 2023 fuel price of $2.89 a gallon, United would save $80 million a year. That equates to 20 cents of earnings per share, or 2% of Jefferies’s full-year earnings estimate of $9.50 a share, she said.
“This benefit should be recognized similarly across airlines,” Kahyaoglu wrote.
10. The Daily Stoic Blog-You Can’t Really Hear this Enough.
One of the most highlighted passages in the digital version of The Daily Stoic is the December 9th quote from Seneca:
“Were all the geniuses of history to focus on this single theme, they could never fully express their bafflement at the darkness of the human mind. No person would give up even an inch of their estate, and the slightest dispute with a neighbor can mean hell to pay; yet we easily let others encroach on our lives—worse, we often pave the way for those who will take it over. No person hands out their money to passersby, but to how many do each of us hand out our lives! We’re tight-fisted with property and money, yet think too little of wasting time, the one thing about which we should all be the toughest misers.”
It makes sense. Property, money, possessions—these things are tangible. We can clearly see when they are taken from us. Time, on the other hand, is more abstract. When our time is eaten up by other people or frittered away on trivial matters, we often don’t even notice.
In The Daily Stoic, the whole month of December is themed around Memento Mori (which you can get a history of here) because the year is ending. With Halloween around the corner, here in the Daily Stoic Email we’re doing a similar deep dive into that theme for the entire month of October. Because you really can’t hear it enough: We can’t live as if we have forever, as if we have unlimited time.
Memento Mori.
Which is an easy concept to nod along to while reading this email. Or listening to a podcast. Or double tap when you see on Instagram.
But how long does that stay with you? How quickly do other thoughts fill the space? How quickly do you go back to frittering your time away?
Will you be able to call upon that reminder in life’s stressful moments?
Different generations have attempted to keep the idea of Memento Mori at hand in different ways. The result can be seen across generations of writing, art, music, jewelry and ritual.
Roman generals employed aides to remind them of this fact at their moments of greatest triumph. Philosophers have kept skulls on their desks for millennia. Beneath the church of Santa Maria della Concezione dei Cappuccini in Rome, there is a crypt built in 1630, decorated with the remains of 4,000 friars. In the middle, there is a plaque inscribed in three different languages that states, “What you are now, we once were; what we are now, you shall be.”
They all were trying to remember: We can go at any moment. We must not waste time.
While times change and it may no longer be practical to keep an aide to whisper death in your ear, the benefits of memento mori remain.
That’s why we created our own additions to the rich history of memento mori, including:
The memento mori medallion which was inspired by the French painter Philippe de Champaign’s famous painting “Still Life with a Skull,” which showed the three essentials of existence: the tulip (life), the skull (death), and the hourglass (time).
The memento mori signet ring which shows Marcus Aurelius’s timeless words: “You could leave life right now…” leaving the wearer to repeat to themselves the final half of the quote “…Let that determine what you do and say and think.”
And the memento mori pendant which shows the hourglass, skull, and tulip with the words Memento Mori. A reminder constantly touching the skin around your neck.
All these were created to remind us that we must live NOW, while there is still time.
It’s a reminder that generations have been attempting to keep at hand and for good reason…
2. Semiconductors Did Break the One-Year Line I Sent Earlier in the Week
3. Last 3 Months Energy XLE +16.9% vs. Semiconductors SMH -6.3%
4. Monster Beverage Best Stock Performer in 25 Years
One of my favorite morning newsletters The Daily Dirt Nap https://www.dailydirtnap.com/ mentioned Monster stock so I hit up chart….…A series of lower highs and close below 200-day
5. 30-Year Mortgage 7.83%
6. U.S. Pending Home Sales Index -44%
7. History of Government Shutdowns and Stock Market-Vanguard Group
Shutdown: A history of mixed results for markets and the economy Although there can be market volatility during a shutdown, history reveals no clear relationship between shutdowns and market returns. Markets might experience heightened volatility in response to the uncertainty in Washington. However, markets have historically had mixed reactions to government shutdowns, with equities finishing in positive territory more than half the time (as noted in the accompanying chart). In the seven instances where shutdowns have lasted 10 days or more, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell four times within the shutdown period and rose three times. The worst return, –4.4%, came during an 11-day shutdown in 1979.
The 6% rate for a six-month CD is a step up from JPM’s 5% offer for a minimum of $100,000.
Those wealthy enough to park $5 million in a certificate of deposit for six months will earn a lofty 6% interest rate at JPMorgan Chase & Co., The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday in an exclusive story.
There’s an important catch with the certificate of deposit, which has been a popular product with banks from people looking to cash in on higher interest rates than available on traditional savings accounts.
To qualify for the 6% CD, money must come from outside JPMorgan Chase JPM, 1.32%, in a bid to draw in fresh capital into the bank, the WSJ report said. The CD’s maximum deposit level is $100 million, with the offering ending on Saturday.
Adam Stockton, managing director at bank data provider Curinos, told the newspaper that banks have been typically offering interest rates of about 2.5% to draw in regular customer deposits, but have been offering 4% to 5% for new wealth-management deposits.
For its part, JPMorgan Chase has been offering 5% to retail banking customers with a minimum of $100,000, while customers who put in less than $100,000 earn 4%. Meanwhile, the bank only pays 0.1% interest for interest-bearing checking and savings accounts, the WSJ said.
As a psychiatrist and neuroscience researcher, I’ve spent 27 years studying the surprising connections between our mental health, physical health and brain health.
I’ve also learned a lot from my personal journey. In my 20s, I was diagnosed with metabolic syndrome, a combination of disorders that increases the risk of cardiovascular disease and diabetes.
But by making some lifestyle changes, I was able to overcome it in just a few months. To continue staying sharp, energized and healthy, here are six things I never do:
1. I never load up on high-carb foods.
Diet plays a role in obesity, diabetes and heart health, but most people don’t realize that it also has profound effects on the brain.
I reversed my metabolic syndrome by committing to a low-carb diet. Generally, low-carb diets eliminate or cut back on grains, baked goods, sweets and fruits that are high in sugar or starch.
I typically have eggs for breakfast. Throughout the day, I eat vegetables, fruits, and a good amount of meat, fish and poultry. This has helped me maintain a healthy weight and keep my blood sugar low.
2. I never take more than 2 days off from exercising.
For me, the optimal workout is 45 minutes, three to five times a week. In addition to stretching and core exercises, I lift weights, run, cycle, swim and take brisk walks.
I don’t push myself to exercise every day, but I also never take more than two days off from aerobic activities.
3. I never get less than 7 hours of sleep a night.
When you sleep, your body enters a “rest and repair” state. The brain undergoes many changes in neurons that play a role in learning and memory consolidation. Without sleep, cells can fall into a state of disrepair and begin to malfunction.
The amount of sleep people need varies, but I always get in at least seven hours a night. I’m usually in bed by 8 p.m. or 9 p.m., and wake up at 4 a.m. The “early to bed, early to rise” routine makes me sharper and more focused throughout the day.
4. I never drink alcohol.
I used to drink regularly, and would sometimes have a glass of wine in the evenings to relax.
But in June 2020, I decided to give it up for one month. Within weeks, I noticed improvements in my sleep and productivity, so I decided to quit drinking altogether. What’s shocking is that I don’t miss it at all.
This doesn’t mean you should give up drinking completely, but the benefits that we once thought alcohol conferred are now being questioned. In a study of over 36,000 people, consuming even one to two drinks a day was associated with brain atrophy or shrinkage.
5. I’m never done with self-growth.
Exploring your emotional health through psychotherapy can be life-changing. It can help you understand who you are and what you want from life, which will strengthen your sense of purpose.
Psychotherapy that focuses on empathy, relationships, social skills or improving cognitive abilities can strengthen brain circuits that have been underdeveloped.
6. I never lose sight of my purpose in life.
Humans are driven to have a sense of purpose. I believe this is hardwired into our brains. When people lack a sense of purpose, it can induce a chronic stress response and lead to poor cognitive function.
Remember that purpose is multifaceted. It involves relationships with other people, yourself and your community. We should all aim to have least one role in society that allows us to contribute and feel valued.
This can be as simple as having household chores, or take the form of being a student, employee, caretaker, volunteer or mentor.
2. Safe Bonds….TLT -40% Since the Beginning of 2022
3. Everything Falling Since Fed Began Raising Rates Except Largest Stocks
4. Mega-Cap Tech Failed to Make New Highs on Rally
5. Transports -11.5% Right on 200 Day Moving Average
6. I showed Staple Sector ETF Chart Yesterday….Another Defensive Sector Underperforming in Pullback ..Utility Stocks New Lows
Huge underperformance yesterday down almost -2% on day
7. Where Are Retail Investors Putting Their Money?
Zerohedge By far the most popular strategy for retail investors is dividend investing with 50% of the respondents selecting it as something they’re interested in.
Dividends can help supplement incomes and come with tax benefits (especially for lower income investors or if the dividend is paid out into a tax-deferred account), and can be a popular choice during more inflationary times.
The Partnership for New York City released a survey on Monday claiming that 58% of Manhattan office workers are at their desks on an average weekday.
That’s up from 52% in late January 2023 and 49% in September 2022.
The latest data are much higher than the Kastle Systems Back-to-Work Barometer’s, which most recently reported “metro” New York occupancy at 50.1% — and has usually cited even lower attendance in its weekly postings.
The Partnership further found that the “rate of return” to offices was 72% of pre-pandemic levels.
That means that offices were on average 72% occupied — which is a different metric than the percentage of workers who go to the office.
Just about anyone who works in an office noticed a growing degree of remote-work absenteeism long before the 2020 lockdown.
In fact, prior to the pandemic, the Partnership explained, Manhattan offices were on average only 80% occupied on any given day — due to vacations, business travel and off-site meetings, among other reasons for absences.
“So the actual drop off in office attendance since 2019 is much smaller than has been previously assumed,” the Partnership said.
Wendy Wisner is a health and parenting writer, lactation consultant (IBCLC), and mom to two awesome sons.
Emotional maturity is a person’s ability to manage their emotions and life stressors in a healthy manner.1 Emotional maturity plays an important role in relationships, as it helps us resolve conflicts and enter into satisfying and secure relationships.2 The American Psychological Association (APA) defines emotional maturity as “a high and appropriate level of emotional control and expression.”3
“Emotionally mature people are self-aware, attuned to their emotions, and know how to manage them,” says Eri Nakagami, Ph.D., LCSW, clinical director of Embark Behavioral Health West LA Outpatient Clinic. “Emotionally mature individuals continually work on various emotional and cognitive skills to help them cope with stressful or adverse situations and reach successful resolutions to life’s challenges.”
8 Signs of Emotional Maturity
First, let’s look at the top 8 most prevalent signs of emotional maturity, according to experts.
You Are Empathetic
Being emotionally mature means that you are able to take the focus off of your own needs and viewpoints at times, and focus on the emotional realities of others.
“Someone who has emotional intelligence is able to have empathy and show compassion to others,” says Lisa Lawless, Ph.D., a clinical psychologist at Holistic Wisdom, Inc. “Their thoughts and feelings are able to be expressed in a healthy and constructive manner, ensuring that they treat others with respect and require it from others.”4
You’re Able to Recognize and Share Your Feelings
People who’ve developed emotional maturity are able to recognize their feelings, and also have an understanding of what is motivating them to feel the way they do.5 This is the basis of being able to manage your feelings in a healthy way, explains Dr. Nakagami. “How a person feels can help them understand why they are reacting the way they are instead of taking out their feelings inappropriately or suppressing them,” she describes.
You’re Flexible and Open-Minded
Another important trait of an emotionally mature individual is that they are not rigid in their thinking. Life is inherently challenging, and an emotionally mature person will respond to life’s challenges with an open, creative mind.5
“A person who has developed a strong emotional maturity is flexible and open-minded by being adaptable to change,” Dr. Lawless says. They are able to consider ideas that are different from their own, which enhances their ability to compromise with others, Dr. Lawless adds.
You’re Able to Form Secure, Healthy Relationships
An important sign of emotional maturity is the ability to maintain healthy and secure relationships with others. This is often more easily obtained in individuals who have developed a secure attachment style, says Sefora Janel Ray, MFT, marriage and family therapist at Therapy to Thrive.
“Secure attachment refers to a deep sense of trust, safety, and connection that individuals develop during their early years through consistent and responsive caregiving,” says Ray. “When I think about emotional maturity, I see its strong connection with secure attachment, forming a foundation for healthy and balanced interpersonal relationships.”2
Of course, a secure attachment style is dependent to some extent on the type of care you were given in childhood by your parents. Thankfully, though, research has found that developing a more secure attachment style later in life is possible—in fact, simply having the desire to develop a more secure attachment style can help you move in that direction.6
You Take Responsibility for Your Actions
Emotionally mature people consider how their actions will affect others and will take responsibility if their actions end up causing any type of harm. “Those with a high amount of emotional maturity are able to easily apologize, take responsibility and be accountable for their actions by understanding and accepting consequences,” Dr. Lawless says. “In addition, they change harmful behavior as they see mistakes as an opportunity to grow and learn.”5
You Set Healthy Boundaries
Being able to set and maintain healthy boundaries is a cornerstone of being emotionally mature. That means that you are able to declare what your emotional boundaries are to yourself and others, and that you are able to hold tight to those boundaries when faced with conflict.
That doesn’t mean that setting healthy boundaries will come easily for you, but you will be able to recognize their importance, Dr. Nakagami says. You can think of setting boundaries as a form of self-care, self-love, and self-respect, she assures. “Not only are boundaries for oneself but also for others to know you have certain lines that you do not allow others to cross.”
You’ve Able to Resolve Conflicts
There’s no escaping the fact that conflicts are going to arise in life, but it’s a matter of how you handle them. Emotionally mature people will seek to resolve conflicts, rather than prolong their existence, or thrive off of their chaos.5
Learning how to manage conflicts means developing some specific emotional and behavioral skills. “Those who are emotionally mature can resolve conflicts effectively, as they are excellent active listeners and are skilled at finding resolutions,” says Dr. Lawless. “When they encounter aggression or manipulation, they are able to address it respectfully and know when to disengage.”
You Can Manage Stress In Healthy Ways
Another given in life is that you are going to encounter stress. An emotionally mature person will not try to push the stress away or to avoid feeling it. At the same time, they won’t plunge into despair anytime they are inevitably faced with it. Instead, they will learn how to manage stress.
“Stress management is a big part of emotional maturity, as it allows one to self-regulate emotions and navigate difficult situations,” Dr. Lawless describes. “Practicing self-care is vital for all of us, and those who are emotionally mature value this and make sure to practice it.”
At What Age Do Most People Reach Emotional Maturity?
Emotional maturity is not something we are born with—it develops throughout our childhood and adolescence. According to the APA, emotional maturity begins to develop as early as infancy when babies begin expressing their feelings through smiling, frowning, and crying. It’s further developed in childhood as we learn which behaviors are and aren’t acceptable, and as we begin to learn simple methods of emotional regulation.7
Emotional maturity takes a greater leap during adolescence, but most adolescents are still wrestling with becoming more emotionally mature. Research shows that the brain reaches a level of stable and mature development—particularly in the region of the prefrontal cortex—by the age of 25. But this doesn’t necessarily mean that a person becomes emotionally mature at the age of 25, since other factors, such as genetics, environment, and childhood experiences, shape our ability to become emotionally mature.8
Being emotionally immature means that you are unable to handle your emotions in a healthy way. You may have trouble forming secure and healthy relationships with others. You may have difficulty recognizing and sharing your feelings, and you are unlikely to handle conflicts and life challenges well. You may not be able to restrain yourself from lashing out at others, or behaving in ways that are inappropriate or harmful. People who are emotionally immature may seem to “overreact” when it comes to normal life stressors, and may be seen as maladapted.9
Although emotional maturity is something that usually develops naturally as we move through adolescence and early adulthood, it’s not something that occurs easily for all of us. The development of emotional maturity is dependent on several factors, including:8
People with neurodivergent brains, such as those with ADHD and ASD, may also have a more challenging time developing emotional maturity, says Dr. Lawless. “This can impact how they handle certain stimulation, including their emotions,” she explains. “In some cases, that can mean increased insights, empathy, and a sense of justice, while in others, it can mean challenges in processing things like sarcasm, changes, sensory stimulation, and being overstimulated easily.”
Wherever you are in your emotional maturity journey, and whatever roadblocks you may have faced, there’s hope, Dr. Lawless offers. Simply having the intention to change is an important first step. “By facing and overcoming challenges, we can better acknowledge our flaws and strive to improve,” she says.
Becoming more emotionally mature may involve:5
Learning to become more mindful of your emotions; learning to name them and manage them
Learning different methods for resolving conflicts
Learning how to listen to others, and broaden your ability to listen compassionately
Learning how to destress and what boundaries are needed for you to live a more balanced life
Learning how to develop more securely attached relationships, and ending relationships that aren’t healthy
Importantly, becoming more emotionally mature isn’t something you are meant to do on your own. Therapy is a great way to work on your emotions, understand what is triggering them, and learn methods for handling them with more ease and grace. Therapy can also help you tackle relationships with more emotional maturity.
8. Target closes 9 stores in response to retail theft, adds locked cases at some stores
Brooke DiPalma—Retail theft is now a $112 billion problem, a National Retail Federation report found. Target (TGT) is taking action in response to retail theft.
On Tuesday the big box retailer announced plans to close nine stores, effective Oct. 21.
“We cannot continue operating these stores because theft and organized retail crime are threatening the safety of our team and guests, and contributing to unsustainable business performance,” the company said in a statement.
9. Target Chart Ugly….Breaks Through Previous 2022 Lows….$250 High to $109 Last
10. Mental Imagery: Going to the Movies in Your Head
Psychology Today How visualizing the future can help professional athletes and you. Anna-Lisa Cohen Ph.D.
KEY POINTS
Mental imagery can help people like elite athletes to improve their performance in a competitive setting.
Mental imagery often involves not just seeing what will happen but also feeling it in the body.
Individuals can prepare for stressful events of all kinds by employing mental imagery.
I grew up in Winnipeg, Canada. Hockey was in our DNA. On August 9, 1988, the unthinkable happened. The Edmonton Oilers traded hockey player Wayne Gretzky, known widely as “The Great One,” to the Los Angeles Kings. I remember watching Gretzky attempt to speak at the press conference, slumped over a mass of microphones and dabbing at his eyes repeatedly.
While it was difficult for Edmonton and the rest of Canada, Gretzky being in L.A. breathed new life into the sport. Suddenly, arenas filled up with eager new warm-weather fans.
Most commentators acknowledge that among his many strengths as a player, one of Gretzsky’s greatest assets was his unique mental game. In what has become a staple of inspirational posters and MBA seminars, Gretzky is famously quoted as saying, “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it is.” It was like he was some kind of hockey fortune teller. He just knew where the puck was going to go.
Not all elite athletes have this type of built-in sixth sense, but there is a wide consensus that we can all benefit from training our minds to visualize the future. Jack Nicklaus, considered one of the greatest golfers of all time, once wrote, “Before every golf shot, I go to the movies in my head.” He explained that these mental simulations of each shot were critical to his success.
Harvard psychologist Stephen Kosslyn is known for his pioneering work in the field of visual cognition, most notably on mental imagery or reproductions of visual images in the absence of the stimuli themselves. A great deal of research has shown that a stronger command of mental imagery improves our ability to perform in competitive situations—including athletics.
The success of mental imagery seems to depend on the ability to conjure vivid images, which come more naturally to some of us than others. Because this is such an important ability, psychologists have methods for evaluating how easily a person can use mental imagery, which they measure on a “visual imagination spectrum.” The categories range from an “image-free imagination” all the way up to “extremely vivid visual imagery.”
In sports, mental visualization is not only visual; it also frequently involves kinesthetic imagery, or the ability to anticipate how it will feel to perform a certain action, like hitting a perfect serve in tennis or making the perfect free throw in basketball.
There can be a dark side for those with an especially vivid imagination. In 2020, my colleagues and I conducted a study that showed that when we vividly imagine ourselves carrying out a future event, hours later, we may falsely believe that we actually carried it out when, in fact, we only imagineddoing it. This is a failure of reality monitoring, and it happens all the time.
For example, while at work, you might think to yourself, I really need to take my medication when I get home this evening. When you form this thought, you picture yourself opening the medicine cabinet, pouring some water into a porcelain cup, and swallowing the pill. Then, later in the evening, you think about taking your medication, and the image from earlier in the day (medicine cabinet, water, porcelain cup, pill) comes to mind, and you mistakenly conclude that you already took your medication. An earlier intention to take your medication has suddenly been mistakenly classified as a real action.
Notwithstanding the errors that sometimes occur with mentally visualizing future events, the benefits of mental simulation extend way beyond sports. We can use it in any domain. For example, when you simulate yourself performing well in a pitch for your genius new start-up idea, it activates and strengthens the regions of the brain responsible for its real-life execution.
Whether you are visualizing yourself playing sports or imagining the speech you will make at your best friend’s wedding, you are priming your brain on how to respond in the real moment. The neural pathways are getting practice for the real event.
Although much of the popular advice advises us to “be present,” our ability to disengage from the present and imagine the future is one of our most extraordinary gifts as humans and underlies some of our greatest achievements.
2. Small Cap Volatility …Small Cap Vol Index at Lows?
Not sure of reason for low volatility in small caps…No one cares?
3-4. Earlier this Year Pundits were Predicting Dollar Crash….Yuan, Yen, and Euro Straight Down vs. U.S. Dollar
Chinese Yuan to Dollar Straight Down
Japanese Yen to Dollar about to make new lows
Euro to Dollar straight down
5. History of October Stock Returns
Nasdaq Dorsey Wright The histogram below is another visual that helps us wrap our hands around October’s past behavior. It categorizes each October’s return into a performance bracket, allowing us not only to see that there have been more up Octobers than down Octobers, but also the degree to which they have been up or down. If we look at the extremes, notice that only five Octobers since 1950 (including 2018) have experienced a decline worse than -5%. The most common experience in October has been a gain in the range of 2.5% – 5%.
6. TLT 20-Year Treasury $89 Tick will Break to New Lows
7. Europe Stagflation?
Torsten Slok Apollo Consensus expectations show that the market is expecting Europe to be in stagflation in 2023 and in 2024, see charts below.
The classic textbook response to stagflation by the central bank is to keep interest rates high until inflation is under control, and then wait for growth to eventually restart.
This is also what we should be expecting from the ECB. The implication for markets is high short rates and low growth in earnings.
8. These are the most overvalued housing markets in the world, according to UBS-Miami and L.A. Only Two U.S. Cities on “Overvalued” List
10. U.S. Sends Drone Ships to Western Pacific in First Deployment Near China
WSJ Autonomous vessels could aid Navy in tracking China’s fleet and provide attack options
By Alastair GaleYOKOSUKA, Japan—Two prototype U.S. drone ships have arrived in Japan for their first deployment in the western Pacific, testing surveillance and attack capabilities that the Navy might find useful against China’s larger fleet.
U.S. Navy Cmdr. Jeremiah Daley said unmanned surface vessels that operate autonomously could substitute for larger ships such as destroyers in groups hunting enemy targets. “For example, one destroyer and two USVs could replace three destroyers. It’s a force multiplier,” he said.
Daley spoke Thursday on board the unmanned surface vessel Ranger, a 190-foot-long ship originally designed for the oil industry that resembles a flatbed truck. It sat docked at the port of Yokosuka, near Tokyo, home to the U.S. Seventh Fleet.
While the Ranger doesn’t currently carry missiles, it can carry and launch missiles in modules loaded onto its flatbed rear section.
2. Flurry of IPO’s the Past Two Weeks are Top of Watch List
Barrons ByEric J. SavitzRecent IPO performance hasn’t helped matters. Goldman Sachs points out that the 2020-21 IPO class had “abysmal performance,” underperforming the Russell 3000 by 48 percentage points in the first 12 months after the IPOs. The worst performers are companies priced at more than 15 times sales, like Arm. Not a single IPO with that valuation level outperformed in the first two years, with an average return that’s 84 percentage points—yes, 84!—behind the market.
3. MSCI China Stock Index Down $2 Trillion in Value
4. Homebuilders Need Land
Yahoo Finance Dani RomeroLennar’s (LEN) CEO Stuart Miller warned about the next big headache for housing — land.
“We believe that the new supply of homes will be limited as developed land is scarce and increasingly more expensive to develop,” Miller said on the company’s quarter earnings call Friday after blowing past quarterly orders and raising its fourth quarter deliveries forecast. “This will continue to limit available inventory and maintain supply/demand imbalance.”
Homebuilders are hungry for land. Yet, the US, a country that offers wide open spaces, is short of land for housing. Builders like Lennar have been able to grow through acquisitions of companies with coveted land pipelines.
5. American Dream Mall $3 Billion in Debt…One Idea Start Knocking Down Malls for Homes?
Zerohedge Owners the Ghermezian family were having trouble preventing the mall from “hemorrhaging cash”, according to Bloomberg at the time, who also noted that the family had already hired advisors to help restructure the project’s $3 billion in debt.
Lenders for the project, including J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Soros Fund Management, stood to face losses on about $1.7 billion in construction loans, we noted last summer. The project was carrying about $1.1 billion in municipal debt at the time.
Neil Shapiro, a New York real estate attorney, said of the project last year:“It’s been like watching a train wreck that goes on forever. There aren’t a lot of projects that lose at least $3 billion that we’re still talking about as projects.”
The financial difficulties plaguing the mall serve as a cautionary tale about the dangers of over-leveraging that we believe we are going to see over and over again as the Fed maintains its tight grip on the gears of the economy, via its “higher for longer” stance.
Barrons By Josh Nathan-Kazis That means a potentially monumental tab for insurers: By 2030, J.P. Morgan analysts expect the amount spent on GLP-1 obesity treatments in the U.S. to be about $50 billion, or a tenth of the $421 billion spent on outpatient drugs in the U.S. in 2021.
Of course, curbing obesity would have the potential to save the healthcare system a lot of money. A recent USC Schaeffer paper argued that Medicare coverage of obesity medicines would save the program more than $700 billion over 30 years. But those savings, if they do materialize, won’t do much to mitigate the shorter-term crisis.
Are personality and intelligence linked? Plenty of people think so.
A friend is convinced that seemingly disorganized people — messy desk, workshop, workspace, whatever — are the most creative. Another believes — maybe because he admittedly embodies it — the trope of the genius who sometimes treats people poorly because they’re so smart. (Steve Jobs, maybe?) Another thinks highly intelligent people tend to be less happy because they’re tormented by bigger-picture concerns; to him, “happy” must mean “simple.”
Science says they’re wrong.
For example, take the seemingly inverse relationship between intelligence and happiness: Research shows levels of happiness are lowest in the lowest IQ groups and highest in the highest IQ groups. (I don’t know my IQ; since it’s bound to be low, my ignorance is bliss.) The same is true for the stereotypical moody genius, as research shows “negative emotionality” is a strong predictor of lower intelligence.
So what are some science-relationships between personality and intelligence? Let’s start by defining personality and intelligence:
· Personality is how you think, feel, and act. (Think the Big 5 independent traits: neuroticism, extroversion, conscientiousness, openness, and agreeableness.)
· Intelligence is your ability to understand and apply information. Some cognitive abilities are acquired, like learning to read financial statements. Others are at least somewhat more innate, like the ability to match patterns. (Which of course is an ability that can also be acquired.)
Turns out there are plenty of links between personality and intelligence, but they tend to be more nuanced. According to a meta-analysis of over 1,300 studies that involved millions of people, openness — not “I’ll tell you all my secrets” but a willingness to engage and explore new experiences, ideas, information, etc. — is the only personality trait with a substantial correlation to intelligence.
Otherwise, the “big” links aren’t really linked. That messy desk doesn’t mean you’re more creative. Then again, it could: While conscientiousness is linked to higher cognitive ability, “routine-seeking” predicts lower intelligence.
Extroversion has almost no correlation to intelligence, although being more sociable does have a negative relationship to some cognitive abilities; as other research shows, the most intelligent people tend to love spending time alone.
Which leads to the real point.
If you hope to get smarter — and who doesn’t? — don’t feel limited by your personality. And don’t try to change your personality. You don’t need to be more or less extroverted, more or less neurotic, more or less agreeable, etc.
You should just try to be more open to new ideas, new information, and new experiences.
The smartest people are constantly revising their understanding, reconsidering a problem they thought they’d already solved. They’re open to new points of view, new information, new ideas, contradictions, and challenges to their own way of thinking.
Science backs him up. A series of experiments published by Harvard Business Review show that while changing your mind might make you seem less smart, changing your mind is actually smarter. For example, entrepreneurs who adapted, revised, and changed their positions during a pitch competition were six times more likely to win the competition.
The next time you question your intelligence, think about how often you’ve changed your mind in recent days.
If the answer is “not often,” you’re likely not as open as you could be.
Instead, take Thinking, Fast and Slow author Daniel Kahneman’s approach. As Kahneman says, “No one enjoys being wrong, but I do enjoy having been wrong, because it means I am now less wrong than I was before.”
Because wisdom isn’t found in certainty. Wisdom is knowing that while you might know a lot, there’s also a lot you don’t know. Wisdom is trying to find out what is right rather than trying to be right.
Want to be more open? Don’t be afraid to be wrong. Don’t be afraid to admit you don’t have all the answers. Don’t be afraid to say “I think” instead of “I know.”
As Adam Grant writes in Think Again, “Arrogance leaves us blind to our weaknesses. Humility is a reflective lens: it helps us see them clearly. Confident humility is a corrective lens: it enables us to overcome those weaknesses.”
In short, you and I already know what we know. What we don’t know is what other people know.
3. 10 Year Yields Just Getting Back to Long-Term Trend.
Jim Reid Deutsche Bank Overnight a major milestone was reached. 10yr US government yields hit their long-term average yield (since 1790) of 4.5% for the first time since 2007. In some ways this could be seen as a concern, since we’re “only” now at normal historical levels, despite the fact inflation is still elevated and record peacetime deficits are predicted for the rest of your careers however old you are. The good news is that at least value has returned. It’s going to be much more difficult for longer-term investors to lose money in Treasuries now than it was for most of the last decade in both nominal, and to a lesser degree, real terms.So a challenging set up for Treasuries in the years ahead but the price is at least now reasonable if history is your guide.
4. Timing Impact of Higher Rates.
The Daily Shot Brief The United States: According to Oxford Economics, the maximum impact of the Fed’s tightening will be felt over the next couple of quarters
Jack Ablin Cresset The cumulative growth in incomes and profits underscores that trend. Between 1983 and 2002, the cumulative growth in profits and personal income moved in lockstep. Though the financial crisis crushed profits, since 2009 corporate profit growth has run substantially ahead of personal income. Artificially low interest rates were partially to blame, but a significant portion of the profit advantage was the result of a greater share of productivity gains gravitating to the bottom line. Over the last 20 years, cumulative wage growth among unionized, goods-producing workers expanded 60 per cent. Adjusted for inflation, however, their wages contracted three per cent in the interim. Adjusted for inflation and productivity, their compensation plunged 30 per cent.
Flags of China and U.S. are displayed on a printed circuit board with semiconductor chips, in this illustration picture taken February 17, 2023. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing Rights
WASHINGTON, Sept 22 (Reuters) – The U.S. Commerce Department on Friday is issuing final rules to prevent semiconductor manufacturing subsidies from being used by China and other countries deemed to pose American national security concerns.
The regulation is the final hurdle before the Biden administration can begin awarding $39 billion in subsidies for semiconductor production. The landmark “Chips and Science” law provides $52.7 billion for U.S. semiconductor production, research and workforce development.
The regulation, first proposed in March, sets “guardrails” by limiting recipients of U.S. funding from investing in expanding semiconductor manufacturing in foreign countries of concern like China and Russia, and limits recipients of incentive funds from engaging in joint research or technology licensing efforts with foreign entities of concern
1. Two Charts to Watch…..CART and ARM IPOs this Week Giving Back Gains Fast
Instacart Highs were Over $40
ARM High was Over $65
2. SMH-Semiconductor ETF Clear Support Line at $140 Level
Blue trendline in danger of being penetrated on a $140 print.
3. NVDA -16% Correction Off Highs….Trades Back Down to Summer Support Levels
4. Commodities Charts Holding Up in Long-Term Trend Charts
5. Rising Rates Make Big Companies Even Richer
The amount companies earn from cash in the bank is going up even as interest costs fixed during the pandemic stand still WSJ By James MackintoshThe winners from higher rates were high-quality borrowers, who locked in low interest rates around the pandemic with bonds maturing further in the future than any time this century. Higher rates have little immediate impact on their borrowing costs—only affecting bonds when they are refinanced—while they earn more on their cash piles straight away.
6. Higher Rates Not Slowing Apollo Private Lending Arm
Bloomberg Apollo to Raise About $2.5 Billion to Lend in Private MarketsThe fund will add more cash to Apollo’s $50 billion of assets under management in direct lending. AOP II will have similar targets as the first generation of the fund, which focused on large corporate borrowers — firms that generate in excess of $100 million EBITDA — primarily in North America and Western Europe, according to an August press release.
Colorado Buffaloes head coach Deion Sanders in Fort Worth. Photo: Getty Images
They believe.
That’s what Colorado head coach Deion Sanders said about his team after the Buffaloes won a nail-biting, double-overtime thriller against in-state rivals Colorado State. Sanders had called the game “personal,” after Colorado State coach Jay Norvell took a dig last week at Sanders’s penchant for wearing a hat and sunglasses during interviews.
The phrase “we believe” has quickly become the Buffaloes’ rallying cry.
A couple of weeks ago, after the Buffaloes upset a highly respected TCU team in their season-opening win, Sanders confronted a reporter he claimed had written a disparaging report about the Buffaloes.
“You believe now?” Sanders asked, with a huge smile on his face.
And earlier this week, in an appearance on the popular ESPN talk show First Take, Sanders invoked the word over and over again in the course of 30 seconds:
“We believe.”
“We just believe … “
“We truly believe … “
“We just truly believe.”
Before you dismiss Sanders’s use of the phrase as pure hype, consider that there’s actually a firm foundation for using this type of speech to motivate others, and it’s rooted in the science of emotional intelligence.
Here’s a breakdown of the power of belief, and how you can use it to help you run your business and your life. (If you find value in this lesson, you might be interested in my free course, which teaches you how to build emotional intelligence in yourself and your team.)
Want to get the most out of others? Make them believe
For decades, research has indicated that teachers, mentors, and coaches who focus on nurturing students and highlighting their potential get better results.
“Today, we have compelling evidence that interest precedes the development of talent,” writes psychology professor Adam Grant in his best-selling book Give and Take. “It turns out that motivation is the reason that people develop talent in the first place.”
To illustrate, Grant cites a classic study led by Harvard psychologist Robert Rosenthal.
Rosenthal teamed up with Lenore Jacobson, an elementary school principal. Students from 18 classrooms, ranging from kindergarten through fifth grade, were all given a “Harvard cognitive ability test.” The test measured verbal and reasoning skills deemed critical to learning and problem-solving.
Afterward, Rosenthal and Jacobson shared the test results with teachers: About 20 percent of the students had shown potential for making “unusual intellectual gains” in the next year. Armed with the knowledge that their students had such high potential, teachers set high expectations for their success.
In turn, the students also believed they had high potential, and they delivered: When those students took the test a year later, they had improved more than fellow students–their IQ points rose at greater rates, and they were still outgaining classmates two years later.
But there’s one very interesting detail to this story: The students labeled as high potential didn’t really score higher on the test. Rosenthal chose them at random.
“The study was designed to find out what happened to students when teachers believed they had high potential,” writes Grant. “Rosenthal randomly selected 20 percent of the students in each classroom to be labeled as bloomers, and the other 80 percent were a control group. The bloomers weren’t any smarter than their peers–the difference ‘was in the mind of the teacher.'”
In other words, the teachers’ expectations helped create self-fulfilling prophecies.
Sanders, who is also known as Coach Prime (a nod to the nickname “Primetime” from his NFL playing days), seems to be doing the same at Colorado. Yes, the kids he coaches have talent. But so do the players at the opposing schools Colorado has faced so far this season.
Yet Colorado is undefeated so far, despite playing higher-ranked opponents the first two games and falling far behind in their third game. Much of the Buffaloes’ success could be attributed to the sky-high confidence their coach has infused them with.
So, how can you apply this principle to your business, or even your personal life?
Many of the people under your care won’t possess the inherent belief that they’re “good” at something. Many lack self-confidence. They’ve been scarred by the way they’ve been trained to see their own performance, or by perceived failures at work or in life.
You can help change that.
When you focus on your people’s strengths, you motivate them. When you nurture their potential, you help them become the best version of themselves.
Train yourself to see the good in others by asking yourself the following questions:
What are they good at?
How can I praise them for what they’re good at, sincerely and specifically?
How can I help them leverage those strengths further?
How can I help them improve their weaknesses through constructive feedback?
Remember, as a leader, you are in a unique position to inspire and motivate those you work with. If you believe, they will too.
Because whether or not you like Coach Prime or his team, you have to admit:
The Colorado Buffaloes believe. And that belief has them doing some extraordinary things.
Jim Reid Deutsche Bank As today’s CoTD shows, recessions have generally got much rarer through time, especially since 1982. Since then the US, Germany and France have only seen 4, whilst the UK and Canada have only seen only 3. The 4 US recessions of the last 40 years contrasts with the 9 recessions in the prior 40 years and 10 over the previous 40 years, both much higher growth periods. Since 1982, the average US expansion has lasted 8.6 years and only 8% of that time has been spent in recession. Before 1982, the average was 2.8 years and 35% respectively. Europe had a long period (25-30 years depending on country) without a recession post-WWII but that was largely a growth catch-up with all the rebuilding after the conflict rather than a structural shift. In this period, the US saw 4 recessions.
4. XRT Retail Shoppers ETF Chopping Sideways…Now higher gas and higher rates?
5. AMZN vs. XRT Retail ETF……Breaks Out to New Highs
6. Homebuilders Rally Right Back to 2021 High then Pause
7. 15% of Home-Purchase Agreements Cancelled
8. History of Soft Landing Calls
The Daily Shot Brief The United States: Increased talk of a “soft landing” tends to precede a recession.
WSJ By Sam GoldfarbIt is one of the biggest surprises on Wall Street: the outsize performance of risky corporate loans. Since the start of last year through Monday, loans backed by companies including PetSmart and in the Morningstar LSTA U.S. Leveraged Loan Index delivered a return of 9.4%, buoyed by higher interest rates and a resilient economy. Investment-grade bonds lost 13% in that time, counting price changes and interest payments, while the S&P 500 lost 3.9%.
Few investments have been as maligned as leveraged loans, the low-rated debt often used to fund private-equity company buyouts. When the Federal Reserve started aggressively raising rates last year, many analysts warned that these loans were vulnerable because their rates rise and fall with those set by the central bank.
10. Share of Children Earning More That Their Parrent—Professor Galloway Blog
No Mercy No Malice BLOG Ground zero for many of the biggest challenges facing America can be traced to one core problem: For the first time in our nation’s history, 30-year-olds aren’t doing as well as their parents were at 30.
It takes 24 stocks to reduce portfolio volatility to within 10% of the market volatility over the last five years, according to calculations from quantitative strategists at UBS. They ran similar tests going back to 2009, and found 28 was the median number that brought portfolio volatility to within 10% of the market’s. Granted, UBS tested stocks were picked randomly and without regards to a diversification aim.Marketwatch By Steve Goldstein
4. S&P 500 Index Longest Streak Without 1.5% Down Day Since 2018
5. Tesla vs. GM Chart Making a Run at Previous Highs
Tesla huge outperformance vs. F/GM this year
6. Crypto $54 Million in Outflows Last Week..80% Bitcoin
Bloomberg By Teresa Xie Despite wins against the US Securities and Exchange Commission and new Bitcoin ETF filings, investors withdrew nearly half a billion dollars from cryptocurrency products over the last nine weeks. The crypto market saw outflows totaling $54 million last week, making it the fifth consecutive week of selloffs, according to a new report by CoinShares. Bitcoin comprised 85% of outflows, reaching $45 million. “A lot of investors are concerned that the crypto market has seen some good news in recent months and it has not helped the Bitcoin and others to rally at all,” Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co., said in an email. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-18/crypto-funds-see-almost-500-million-in-outflows-over-nine-weeks?srnd=premium&sref=GGda9y2L
7. Planet Fitness Breaks Thru 2021-2022 Lows
Post-Covid favorite PLNT breaks below October 2022 lows
Mom and Pop Business Owners’ Day: Landlords of Small Rental Properties
By: Nadia Evangelou While March 29 is designated as Mom and Pop Business Owners’ Day, let’s take a look at some facts about mom-and-pop landlords and small rental properties. In real estate, mom-and-pops are owners of small rental properties (1-4 units), and they do the day-to-day management of these properties. But being a mom-and-pop landlord can be challenging, especially when someone is starting out and doing everything from evaluating and purchasing rental properties, finding and screening tenants, collecting rents, keeping the books, dealing with taxes, observing local laws, and performing routine maintenance and repairs.
Many millions of words have been written on how to be happy, which is both a blessing and a curse. If you’re an entrepreneur in the market for tips, there certainly is no shortage of suggestions from everyone from scientists to billionaires to Albert Einstein. But who has time to wade through thousands of articles? And which of the many ideas out there should you try first?
What you need to get started is condensed and easily applicable advice from someone who knows what they’re talking about. A quote from British philosopher Bertrand Russell fills the bill, and better yet, his suggestion is backed by modern research.
The secret of happiness in just 35 words?
Russell was a celebrated mathematician and philosopher who died back in 1970 at the age of nearly 100. He’s the source of many popular quotes, which writer Thomas Oppong recently rounded up on Medium. If you’re looking for a reminder of the downsides of materialism, the value of intellectual humility, or the high chance worrying what others think of you will lead to regret, then it’s well worth a quick read.
But one quote from Russell’s 1930 book The Conquest of Happiness struck me in particular as packing a whole lot of profundity into just 35 words: “The secret of happiness is this: Let your interest be as wide as possible and let your reactions to the things and persons who interest you be as far as possible friendly rather than hostile.”
As Russell explains in the book, the world is huge and we are small. You’ll never have enough time for everything you want to do in your limited years. That truth could bring despair if you constantly fight against it. Instead of struggling, he advises you pick interests that captivate you (his very personal examples are “the Council of Trent, or the life history of stars,” but football or knitting would do just as well) and get lost in exploring them. This way you can temporarily slip the constraints of time and find momentary happiness.
In short, practice openness and get some hobbies or interests. Then use them to find flow. It’s a simple enough prescription, but it’s actually one that’s backed by modern science.
Modern research agrees
Openness has been linked by research not only to creativity and intelligence, but also to slower mental aging. Being open to new experiences seems to help keep the mind young. So, science certainly has found benefits to being friendly rather than hostile to new people, interests, and ideas. And should that initial curiosity develop into a hobby or interest of some sort, so much the better.
A stack of studies shows that having diverse interests helps us develop a broader sense of self. You’re not just an entrepreneur and a dad, for instance, you’re also a bowling league champion, a surfer, or a sourdough master. Which means that whenever we run into difficulties in one of these areas of life, we can draw strength and confidence from others. When business is rocky, the surfing waves might be rocking.
Not only are hobbies and interests a resilience booster and a stress killer, they also help us enter a state of flow. This is that feeling you get when you’re doing something you genuinely enjoy and lose all sense of time. Psychologists have identified flow as a sure route to happiness — when you’re deeply absorbed in an activity, you are not fretting about the future or the past.
Charlie Bilello A net 51% of US Banks are now tightening their lending standards, the highest since 2020 and at levels that have coincided with recessionary periods in the past.
3. Overall Loan Growth of U.S. Banks 3.6%
WSJ By Telis Demos One way for American banks to offset the pressure coming from rising deposit costs would be to boost business: More loans, even if earning less individually, could still lead to overall revenue growth.
But right now, their lending is expanding very slowly. As of the latest Federal Reserve weekly tally, overall loan growth at U.S. banks has been 3.6% on an annualized, seasonally adjusted basis so far in the third quarter—well below the long-term average of 7%, according to Autonomous Research analyst Brian Foran.
4. Ten Largest Companies Percentage of S&P….Hit 40% in 1990 and 2000…..34% Last
The ten largest companies in the S&P500 make up 34% of the index, and these ten mega-cap companies have an average P/E ratio of 50, see chart below.
Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, PartnerApollo Global Management
5. Crude Oil and Natural Gas Diverge
Bespoke As crude oil topped $90 per barrel for the first time since last November, it’s interesting to see how prices of natural gas have seen little movement. It used to be that the two commodities moved somewhat in unison with each other, but that has not been the case this year. As shown in the chart below, since crude oil really started to take off at the end of Q2 it has rallied more than 28%. Nat gas meanwhile not only hasn’t rallied, but it’s down over 3%!
As a result of the recent divergence between the two, the ratio of crude oil to natural gas has surged this year and currently sits at over 30. Besides earlier this year, the only time since 1990 that the ratio between the two was as high or higher was back in the period spanning late 2011 through early to mid- 2013.
Josh Watzkin on why the second mistake is worse than the first:
“One idea I taught was the importance of regaining presence and clarity of mind after making a serious error. This is a hard lesson for all competitors and performers. The first mistake rarely proves disastrous, but the downward spiral of the second, third, and fourth error creates a devastating chain reaction.”
There was a sea change this around too…for a little bit.Last year during the rising inflation and interest rate environment, growth stocks got killed while value stocks finally had their time in the sun after a decade of tech stock dominance.
Yet here we are again with the same huge growth stocks leading the way. The Nasdaq 100 is up 40% this year after falling 33% last year.
The Man Group performed some research on the top 100 stocks in the S&P 500 each decade going back to the 1960s to show that many of the leaders from the previous era typically fall from their perch:
This happened every decade…until the 2010s.
The top stocks more or less remained the top stocks.
History tells us tech stocks should underperform in a meaningful way eventually.
… moments ago we got the latest Chinese data dump for the month of August, which showed that – as expected – the world’s 2nd biggest economy has rebounded from the bottom and may be stabilizing. Here are the highlights:
August Retail sales +4.6%, beating exp. +3.0%, Last +2.5%
August Industrial Output +4.5%, beating exp. +3.9%, Last +3.7%
Jan-Aug Fixed Investment +3.2%, missing exp. +3.3%, Last 3.4%
Jan-Aug Property Development investment -8.8%, Last -8.5%
China apparent oil demand +22.7% to 14.74mm b/d, unchanged from July
New property construction falls -24.4% YTD y/y to 639MM sq.m
August new home prices, excluding affordable housing, -0.29% m/m
Psychology Today Studies show curiosity is a powerful tool for mental health and well-being. Jennifer Gerlach LCSW
Curiosity can be thought of as the psychological equivalent of a healthy heartbeat.
Strong curiosity is a sign of mental health.
There are many ways to cultivate curiosity, such as revisiting childhood joys or doing something unexpected.
There is something magical about walking through a path in the fall looking up at the leaves, or finding a song for a moment that you want to lean into to understand where the artist stood. This enchantment is curiosity.
Research points to the many benefits of curiosity from improvements in memory (Gruber, & Ranganath, 2019), creativity, and precious “flow” states (Schutte and Malouff, 2020). It is associated with higher life satisfaction (Proctor et al., 2011) and, contrary to the adage that curiosity kills the cat, has also been linked with aging well (Sakaki et al., 2018).
When we feel safe, we are free to explore. When we feel in a space of threat, our focus narrows and we lose interest. Evolutionarily, this makes sense. At moments during which our ancestors faced the threats of their day, often predators, it would not have been wise to stare in wonder at the leaf. We are the descendants of the people who didn’t get eaten.
Today, most fears we face are social and last longer than a run from a bear. Yet, we have many barriers to feeling safe and being curious. Repeated traumatic experiences or anxiety can put us in a space where the threat system is hyper-activated making it difficult for us to access our drive for discovery.
Loss of interest in activities is a hallmark symptom of depression. Even schizophrenia is often associated with negative symptoms marked by a decrease in seeking pleasurable activities, the byproduct of anhedonia, avolition, and emotional blunting.
Conversely, recent research shows that curiosity may be a protective factor against anxiety and depression (Zainal, & Newman, 2023), as well as that creative interventions can improve curiosity (Schutte and Maloff, 2022), garnering individuals a whole host of benefits.
Perhaps we can think about curiosity as the psychological equivalent of a healthy heartbeat. As we struggle with mental health, it’s common for us to lose our pulse with our curiosity. Similarly, by engaging curiosity through exercises of creativity there is much to be gained.
While curiosity is not often discussed as a key therapeutic tool, many therapists utilize it. As a psychotherapist, my office space is designed to encourage a hammock swing for my clients to sit on, a treasure chest filled with varying objects, and art supplies.
Most other therapists also take this into account when cultivating a therapyenvironment. Art therapists have engaged curiosity and creativity in healing for decades, and certain therapy styles, such as compassion-focused therapy, involve activities to activate the soothing/affiliative system in which we are often free to be curious.
So how can you grow your sense of curiosity? Here are five ways:
1. RevisitChildhoodJoys. When you were a kid, did you like to fly kites? What about riding your bike around the neighborhood? These things still exist. Engaging joys from the past can lift our curiosity.
2. Do Something Unexpected. Routine drives away opportunities for new things. Sometimes, it is worthwhile to take a turn into something unplanned. This could be something as simple as stopping at the apple butter stop as you are driving home or taking a different route to work.
3. Pick Something Random and Learn About It. Many of us have had interests in the past that we let go of. Did you stop learning about space when you realized that your life path was not headed toward becoming an astronaut? Curiosity is not about learning only things that have practical significance. The world is wide and there is so much to marvel at.
4. Ask Questions. Curiosity thrives on wonder. Sometimes we have questions that we never ask. We don’t allow ourselves to open those doors. It’s OK to ask questions. Questions often deepen connections.
5. Explore a New Place. You don’t have to get on an airplane to travel. Maybe there is a restaurant you have never eaten at or a park you have never visited. Allowing yourself to experience these new places could foster curiosity.
1. Two Break-Out Charts…10 Year Treasury and Energy SPDR
XLE energy etf
2. Gasoline Prices Hit Resistance for at these Levels for Last 12 Months
3. Shrinking Stock of Crude Oil Reserves
Nasdaq Dorsey Wright
4. T-Bills…Retail Buys $1 Trillion of New Notes in Three Months
Bloomberg-With rates on cash and cash-like instruments at the highest in more than two decades and offering more income than benchmark US debt or stocks, assets in money-market funds have swelled to a record. But nowhere is that appetite for liquid, high-yielding instruments more apparent than in the market for T-bills where investors have snapped up more than $1 trillion of new notes in just the last three months.
9. Depopulation of Italy…Number of Deaths Exceeding Births
For the first time, the number of births in a year fell below 400,000 – representing an average of 1.25 babies per woman, according to official figures for 2022.
This means that the replacement rate is now negative, since the number of deaths currently exceeds the number of births – 12 deaths for every seven births.
Our brain is like a computer processor: It has a finite amount of processing power, or intellectual resources, that can be used in a given moment. Any competing task (or emotional state) that occupies too much of our intellectual firepower impacts our ability to concentrate, focus, problem-solve, be creative, or use other cognitive abilities; as a result, our functioning IQ is temporarily lowered.
To demonstrate this principle, try walking while counting down from 1,000 by sevens (1,000, 993, 986, etc.). You will soon stop walking. Why? Your brain has to work so hard to do this math that it doesn’t have enough resources left to tell your legs to put one foot in front of the other.
Most common competing tasks do not have a significant impact on our ability to work or study. Most of us can do homework while listening to music and can become absorbed in a book while eating.
However, some psychological habits, like the 5 below, consume such huge amounts of intellectual resources that they diminish our cognitive capacities. Few people are aware that these psychological habits have such a detrimental effect, so they are unlikely to pause what they’re doing—and this can seriously affect a person’s ability to perform a task at full capacity.
1. Brooding
Replaying upsetting, frustrating, or distressing events over and over again—especially when doing so frequently or habitually—can make our minds race with thoughts or stir us up emotionally, severely taxing our intellectual resources. In addition to impacting our cognitive functioning, brooding (also known as ruminating) can present real dangers to our emotional and even our physical health. (See “The Seven Hidden Dangers of Brooding.”)
We all feel guilty from time to time. When we do, we typically apologize or take some kind of action to resolve our guilty feelings. However, when guilt is not addressed and repeatedly pops into your mind, it creates a huge cognitive distraction that seriously impairs cognitive functioning. The solution is to put guilty feelings behind you as best you can. (See “The Secret of Effective Apologies.”)
3. Ineffective Complaining
Most people are likely to share their frustrations with friends rather than discuss them with someone who could help resolve them. The problem is that each time we tell our tale, we become frustrated and annoyed. Anger and frustration require significant processing power and enable ineffective complaints to become a regular drain on our brainpower.
4. Overanalyzing Rejection
Rejection creates emotional pain that significantly impacts our mood and has a serious impact on cognitive functioning. It also causes us to become self-critical, a habit that further damages our self-esteem, extending the duration of our emotional distress—and with it, our compromised cognitive abilities. (See “10 Surprising Facts about Rejection.”)
5. Worrying
Many people don’t consider worrying harmful. “I’m just a bit of a worrier,” we might say with a wry smile. But worrying creates an uncomfortable and unpleasant emotional state, and it can be seriously distracting. When we’re worried about something, it tends to take priority in our minds, and push everything else to the side. Fortunately, it’s easier to address and resolve worry (by thinking through potential solutions) than it is anxiety. (See “The Difference Between Anxiety and Worry.”)
1. Global Fund Managers Biggest Switch Ever into U.S. Stocks Out of Emerging Markets
Marketwatch-By Steve GoldsteinGlobal fund managers have just made their biggest shift ever into U.S. stocks and out of emerging market equities, according to Bank of America’s long-running monthly survey released Tuesday.
3. U.S. Tech Stocks Outperformance Vs. Global Tech Stocks
Top Down Charts Key point: US tech stocks massively + persistently outperformed global tech stocks
4. Equal Weight S&P and Energy Sector
Jim Reid Deutsche Bank A few other things look different YoY than YTD. Today’s CoTD looks at two interesting YoY lines that are now broadly flat.
Firstly, we have oil, which in June was c.-45% YoY, but is now +0.3% YoY. That’s helping to reverse the sharp pace of falls in the headline US CPI over the last 12 months or so, and is topical for tomorrow since rising gasoline prices mean we expect a +0.6% mom print for headline CPI – the highest since June 2022. See our economists’ preview here.
Secondly, the equal-weight S&P 500 is now ‘only’ up +0.5% YoY, which relative to history is a notable underperformance, especially when you think of the buoyant equity mood this year. The same index is up +4.3% YTD but all of those gains were made by January 11th.
As we know, the mega cap tech stocks mean the actual S&P 500 is +16.8% YTD and +9.2% YoY with the “Magnificent Seven” (equal-weighted) almost solely responsible and +95% YTD and +45% YoY.
What does it say about the economy that the equal-weighted S&P 500 is actually now flat since April 2021? Does it suggest more difficulties adjusting to the higher rate world than broader market cap indices in 2023 suggest? Or is reducing the weight of those mega caps data mining too much and is big tech an important part of the modern US economy? For context the Russell 2000 is -2.67% YoY and back to November 2020 levels. Since then, consumer prices are +16.7% higher so a dramatic underperformance in real terms.
5. AAPL Support $170-172…Then 200day Moving Average
The policy was introduced after the controversial arrest of two Black men at one of the company’s Philadelphia locations. The men had been asked to leave a store after one was denied access to the bathroom. They were arrested by police after sitting down to wait for a business meeting. Witnesses captured the incident on video and it went viral.
At the time the policy was announced, Schultz said he didn’t want the company to “become a public bathroom” but they didn’t want people to feel “less than” if they were refused access.
“We serve 100 million people at Starbucks and there is an issue of just safety in our stores, in terms of people coming in who use our stores as a public bathroom,” Schultz said. “And we have to provide a safe environment for our people and our customers. The mental health crisis in the country is severe, acute and getting worse.”
“We have to harden our stores and provide safety for our people,” Schultz explained. “I don’t know if we can keep our bathrooms open.”
This summer, I visited my 95-year-old grandfather in his hometown of Osaka, Japan. I wanted to spend more time with him and learn about the activities that keep him so healthy and happy.
A retired cardiologist, his creative, community-driven outlook and purposeful way of living have always inspired me. He’s a great example of how to age gracefully.
Here are his eight non-negotiables for a long and happy life:
1. He takes an early morning walk
My grandparents are early risers. By 5 a.m., they’ve already begun their morning stroll. They usually walk for 30 minutes to an hour, and get in at least 7,000 steps.
Whether they’re hiking mountainous trails to the Minoh Falls or doing laps around the Ikeda neighborhood, my grandparents’ use their walks to start their days from a place of strength.
My grandfather has my grandmother to boost his emotional well-being. But he also maintains strong ties to people in his global community, including his grandchildren in the U.S., through this time online.
4. He writes in his blog
Since 2014, he has spent a few minutes almost every day writing his thoughts, experiences and insights on his blog. It now has well over 1,000 posts.
It’s easy to lose our drive when we don’t see immediate results, but my grandfather’s blog is a culmination of a few minutes of writing spanned over several years. It’s a good reminder of the value of small, consistent actions.
5. He creates art
My grandfather is an accomplished artist. Every day he sits down and draws his self-portrait. As he carefully sketches each line, shading and detail, he uses the time to get a better understanding of himself.
In a world where we are often on the go, seeing him take the the time to slow down and look inward has motivated me to do the same.
6. He makes time for new hobbies
During the pandemic, my grandfather started gardening after being inspired by the flowers and plants he saw on his walks.
And at my grandmother’s suggestion, he started playing the recorder, a woodwind musical instrument, because he thought it would help with his breathing and swallowing.
It’s never too late to learn new skills. I love how my grandfather remains open-minded and adventurous, always seeking novel experiences to fuel his curiosity — and is never afraid to fail.
7. He takes multiple naps
After all that exercise, he makes sure to stop and refuel several times per day in order to maintain his energy.
He usually takes his first half-hour nap in the morning, around 8 or 9 a.m., and often falls asleep again in the afternoons while reading.
His self-awareness to know when to take these breaks has been a major contributor to his longevity.
8. He eats indulgent meals
My grandfather is incredibly active, but he also has a real love for life’s pleasures, including savoring red meats, cheeses and drinking fine wines.
However, on the healthier side, my grandmother always serves a variety of vegetables in her homecooked Japanese meals, like her delicious curry.
While Western norms might label some of his dietary choices as unhealthy, his exceptional well-being at 95 is a testament to the fact that many different factors contribute to longevity, and balance is perhaps the most important.
In Japan, we have a concept called “ikigai,” or “sense of purpose.” There is no single precise set of instructions for good health and happiness. The most important thing is to find out what your purpose looks like, and like my grandfather, pursue that path with care, intention and joy.
Mika Cribbs is a content creator and graphic designer from Los Angeles. She currently works at GUESS as a content producer, and has worked in fashion, beauty and entertainment. Beyond the screen, you’ll find her trying new foods, traveling, and cherishing moments with family and friends.
8. Country Garden China’s Largest Property Developer has $100B Ghost Town in Malaysia
Forest City, a luxury estate in southern Malaysia, is one of the most controversial developments in the country’s history. Six years into development, the $100 billion estate is already a ghost town. Marielle Descalsota
Forest City, Johor Bahru, Malaysia. Marielle Descalsota/Insider
The development is in Johor Bahru, Malaysia, just north of Singapore. It was built by Country Garden, China’s largest property developer.
Forest City is huge: It spreads across 1,740 hectares, or four times the size of city-state Monaco. Around 700,000 people were initially expected to live in the estate.
But as of 2019, only around 500 people lived in the estate, according to a 2019 report by Foreign Policy. An expert who declined to be named for security reasons told me the estate’s population has since grown to several thousand — which is still less than 5% of the expected number of residents.
Country Garden declined to comment on the number of residents in the development.
9. The State of Betting in the U.S.-USA TODAY….Is it me or the entire NFL is now Vegas?
Where in the United States is sports betting legal, and where can you place your wagers online? Check out our interactive map of the U.S. for updated legal news and recent state sports betting developments.
From Callum Thomas Chart Storm Out of Energy: ETF investors completely bailed on energy stocks this year. (contrarians, take note) https://www.chartstorm.info/
8. A Record Amount of Americans Plan to Travel Internationally
Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, PartnerApollo Global ManagementThe Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey asks households if they plan to travel to a foreign country, and the first chart below shows that a record-high share of US consumers are planning to go on vacation to a foreign country within the next six months.
The continued strong demand for consumer services is the reason why it is so difficult for the Fed to get supercore inflation under control. US households want to travel on airplanes, stay at hotels, eat at restaurants, go to sporting events, amusement parks, and concerts, and that is why inflation in the nonhousing service sector continues to be so high, see the second chart.
The bottom line is that rates will stay higher for longer because the Fed is not succeeding with getting nonhousing service sector inflation under control.
9. Cruises Exceed Pre-Pandemic Levels.
Chartr Blog All aboard! So, the headline is that cruises are back. Indeed, cruise tourism is expected to make a titanic comeback this year, with passenger volumes forecast to exceed pre-pandemic levels by 6% — increasing at an even faster rate than overall international tourist arrivals in 2023, which are only estimated to have returned to 80-95% of the number of voyagers seen in 2019.
Operator Global Ports Holdings, which claims to be the world’s largest cruise port operator, revealed almost 2x as many passengers across its network in the three months to June 30, translating to a quarterly revenue increase of 60%.
Furthermore, the largest cruise operators in the world are showing little problem filling the rooms on their increasingly enormous fleets. Royal Caribbean experienced record-breaking demand for its new flagship Icon of the Seas — set to be delivered in October — which is nothing short of a remarkable feat of engineering. Coming in at 1,196 feet, or nearly 4 Statues of Liberty laid end-to-end, Icon will offer its 5,600+ guests the choice of 6 waterslides, 7 pools, 19 floors to explore, and 40+ bars and restaurants.
Not waving, but drowningThat demand suggests that the industry is getting back on an even keel, with consistent profits likely to follow. Indeed, in the decade 2010-2019, Carnival Corporation — at the time the world’s largest cruise ship company — was a slick operation, raking in more than $24bn in operating profits across those 10 years, with ~$3.3bn coming in 2019 alone. But, the pandemic very nearly sunk the ship, kickstarting 3 cash-hemorrhaging years for the company and industry at large.
Below deck As passengers have gradually started to don their deck shoes once again, Carnival’s revenues have crept up, but still not enough to match the costs that come with operating the floating hotels. Just fueling its fleet, for example, cost Carnival a whopping $2.2 billion in 2022. All told, Carnival Corp. reported an operating loss of $4.4 billion as passenger tickets and onboard sales failed to rebound sufficiently… and that was a significant improvement on the $7.1 billion loss the year before.
Shawn Johal is an Entrepreneurs’ Organization (EO) member in Montreal, a leadership speaker, bestselling author, and founder of Elevation Leaders, a business growth practice helping companies 10X their business valuation. We asked Shawn how he handles challenging conversations in his company. Here’s what he shared:
As a Business Growth Coach, I’ve encountered many entrepreneurs who struggle to initiate difficult conversations in their companies. It usually stems from one of two scenarios:
First, there’s the guilt-ridden entrepreneur who asks, “How can I deliver honest feedback without crushing this person’s spirits?” On the other hand, there’s the entrepreneur who embraces conflict a bit too comfortably. They might say, “I don’t enjoy confrontation, but until we become a billion-dollar company… .”
High-impact conversations are psychological and can trigger emotional responses. In growth times or in crisis times (for some companies, life oscillates between the two), these high-emotion moments tend to manifest more frequently.
Building a business with the potential to 10X doesn’t stop at processes, strategy, hiring, or cash flow management. The ability to engage in, and successfully emerge on the positive end of, hard conversations either contributes to or hinders a company’s growth.
So, whether you’re facing a challenging dialogue with a direct report, a business partner, an investor, or your peers, here are three strategies to master the art of difficult conversations.
1. Create a Safe Space
We hear the term “safe space” everywhere lately. But what is it, and how can we actually create one?
We all value a place where we can freely share our thoughts and concerns without fear of judgment or consequence. It’s part of the human experience, and it applies to business contexts, too. At its core, a “safe space” is an environment — a feeling in the air.
To create one, start by giving your undivided attention. When someone is speaking, be fully present and attentive. Forget about your busy schedule or the next point you want to make. Show that you genuinely value their words and opinions.
Then, lead with empathy. It’s easy to get caught up in our own perspectives, but difficult conversations require understanding. Put yourself in their shoes and try to see things from their point of view. The other party will quickly feel understood.
When we’re able to achieve this, our businesses can overcome daily obstacles with greater ease and progress through constructive dialogue.
2. Find Common Ground
There is no successful outcome to a difficult conversation unless you first establish common ground.
I’ll never forget the time I found myself in a critical meeting with a CEO who seemed more interested in his phone than our discussion. His entire leadership team of senior experts was in the room, but he wanted nothing to do with the (very significant) issue at hand. It felt as if this CEO was in one corner of the room while the entire C-suite sat in the opposite corner. Nobody looked at each other. Such a tense moment!
How did it get resolved? I focused my communication on one thing: Reiterating the shared objective everyone in the room had (a successful outcome that benefited the business). Identifying common ground — the “one thing” that everyone in that room equally wanted — reminded each person that they shared a collective purpose that mattered to them.
When you find yourself in a complicated conversation, reflect on the common ground that connects all parties. Finding that shared objective will pave the way forward.
3. Don’t Let Emotions Get the Best of You
The thing about emotions is: They are highly contagious. If you enter a difficult conversation with your emotions on your sleeve, the other party involved will likely get emotional, too. Things can get unproductive — fast.
To prevent that, pay attention to your tone of voice, body language, and choice of words. Non-verbal cues can have a major impact on how your message is received. Strive to maintain a composed demeanor, using a tone that conveys respect and openness.
Phrases like “I’m disappointed” or “You could’ve” can come across as accusatory. Instead, focus on stating facts, seeking their perspective, and sharing your experience.
However, if you notice the emotional intensity escalating to a point where it hinders productive communication, recognize when it’s time to pause the meeting. Remember, your mental health should never be compromised during these discussions.
Sometimes, it feels like navigating difficult discussions is part of a business owner’s job description. I personally spent years figuring out how to best handle these conversations. Applying key tactics helps — but none of the tactics work if you don’t adjust your mindset first.
My advice to all entrepreneurs: Don’t shy away from hard conversations. Look at them as catalysts for growth, enhancing both your business and personal development.
If you figure out how to 10X the success of difficult conversations, you can 10X the productivity, culture, and profitability of your company; I guarantee it!
2. Large Cap Premium Valuation Over Small Cap Close to Internet Bubble Levels
Wisdom TreeScott Welch, CIMA ®This valuation dispersion can be illustrated differently by examining the ratio of small-cap to large-cap P/E multiples. The discount is as wide as it has been since the tech bubble of the early 2000s (ignoring the anomalous COVID-19 period).
Small Cap to Large Cap Historical P/E Ratio (x100)
It is not just that small-cap stocks are trading at wide discounts to large-cap stocks—they are also trading at a wide discount relative to their own historical averages. “NTM” refers to estimates of the next twelve months earnings, also expressed as “12-month forward estimates.”
3. AI Mentions by S&P 500 Companies Up 366% Since Start of Year
Business Insider-A new analysis by Wall Street Zen found the number of mentions of “AI” and related terms (machine learning, automation, robots, etc.) in S&P 500 earnings calls skyrocketed over the past year and a half, as the chart above illustrates. AI mentions in the first quarter of 2022 totaled 1,156. That dipped to 805 in the third quarter of 2022 before rising 177% to 2,182 in the next quarter. Then, during this year’s second quarter, that ballooned to 7,358 — a 366% increase compared to the start of the year.
4. Non NVDA AI Stokcs….C3.ai +120% in 2023…..-77% Since Inception
8. A Huge Threat to the U.S. Budget Has Receded. And No One Is Sure Why-NYT
NY Times By Margot Sanger-Katz, Alicia Parlapiano and Josh Katz Sep. 4, 2023 For decades, runaway Medicare spending was the story of the federal budget.Now, flat Medicare spending might be a bigger one.
Something strange has been happening in this giant federal program. Instead of growing and growing, as it always had before, spending per Medicare beneficiary has nearly leveled off over more than a decade.
The trend can be a little hard to see because, as baby boomers have aged, the number of people using Medicare has grown. But it has had enormous consequences for federal spending. Budget news often sounds apocalyptic, but the Medicare trend has been unexpectedly good for federal spending, saving taxpayers a huge amount relative to projections.
“Without a doubt, this is the most important thing that has happened to the federal budget in the last 20 years,” said David Cutler, a professor of health policy and medicine at Harvard, who helped the Obama White House develop the Affordable Care Act.
9. According to WSJ 30% of Rural Hospitals at Risk of Closing
WSJ Akiko MatsudaA growing number of hospital operators across the country are in financial distress or have declared bankruptcy under the pressure of labor shortages and high inflation in the wake of the pandemic. Small independent hospitals serving rural communities have been hit especially hard. More than 600, or about 30%, of all rural hospitals in the country are at risk of closing, according to the Center for Healthcare Quality and Payment Reform, a national policy center. As of August, 13 rural hospitals had shut their doors, exceeding seven and three in 2022 and 2021, respectively, according to the Cecil G. Sheps Center for Health Services Research, a unit of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. https://www.wsj.com/articles/hospital-distress-worsens-amid-labor-scarcity-and-inflation-1ca31b87
1. August Saw A Lot of Selling at the Close of Market Day
2. Crude Oil Rally Still Well Below 2022 Highs
Light Crude Oil Chart Held 200 Week Moving Average…Coming up on next resistance level
3. Energy Prices Up and Airlines Down
JETS corrects back to Spring levels with rise in crude oil
4. Recessions and Bonds….Long-Bond Lost Decade
@Callum_Thomas Recession Realities: But one thing I have to keep coming back to is the tyranny of the stats — historically treasuries put in their best performance, and stock-beating performance during recessions. I would note, you don’t need a recession for bonds to do ok, but you do need a recession for bonds to do spectacular (hence why bonds are often referred to as diversifying assets… at least outside of inflationary shocks!).
Treasury Troubles: In real (CPI adjusted) total return terms, long-term US treasuries have seen a lost decade, and a catastrophic -50% drawdown off the peak in mid-2020 (p.s. for anyone who’s new to bonds remember: yields up = price down). Essentially this is what happens when an otherwise safe and conservative asset meets an inflation (+ monetary policy) shock.
1. Rob Arnott Research Affiliates Top Tech Names in 2000 ….20 Year Returns
Following the peak of the tech bubble in March 2000, the average stock in the S&P 500 rose by 25% over the next two years, while a cap-weighted index dominated by tech stocks fell by 21%. Arnott points to the list of tech firms that were the top 10 most-valuable at the peak of the dot-com bubble. None were able to beat the market by the time the next bull run peaked in 2007, and only Microsoft Corp. and Oracle Corp. are ahead today, two decades later.
The goal of establishing routine needs to include time for socializing.
Social connection encompasses three fundamental components: structure, function, and quality.
Social connection helps us live a happier, healthier, and longer life.
As a professor and a mother, the end of summer is always a bittersweet and busy time of year. Whether or not you are gearing up for back-to-school, the end of the summer marks a point where we all feel like we need to get back into a rhythm. This can be a busy time. Whether it is the addition of homework, yard work, or the many other tasks that seem to pop up, we often find ourselves overscheduled and overstressed, yearning to establish a sense of equilibrium in our lives. As we settle into a routine, we must center our lives around the things that matter most and will help us live happy and healthy lives.
When you think of living a healthy life, what do you imagine? Does your list consist of getting more steps in, eating healthier, going to bed earlier, or swapping out soda for sparkling water? These are all important for our health, but most people don’t realize that many other factors dramatically influence physical health. What specifically am I talking about? Social connection.
The evidence supporting the health benefits of social connection is compelling and wide-ranging. Studies have consistently underscored the association between social bonds and a reduced risk of earlier death, bolstered cardiovascular well-being, enhanced immunity against infections, and mitigated levels of inflammation. Those fortified by social networks also report lower rates of depression, anxiety, and other mental health disorders. Moreover, social connection has been linked to better cognitive function and resilience to stress. In essence, fostering social connections is not just about enhancing our emotional well-being; it’s a cornerstone of our physical health and overall quality of life.
In my role as the lead scientific editor for the US Surgeon General Advisory on the Healing Effects of Social Connection and Community, we aimed to seek to create awareness and ignite change to help us focus more on the importance of social connection in our own lives and the communities that we live in. This advisory goes beyond providing evidence of concerning trends about isolation and loneliness in our country to provide detailed recommendations for schools, communities, businesses, governments, and, importantly, individuals. As we understand more about the need for human connection, we are better able to prioritize it in our lives and enjoy the many benefits that come from it.
Social connection encompasses three fundamental components: structure, function, and quality. The structure, or size and variety of social relationships, is the foundation of our social connection by ensuring the presence of people in our lives and regular social contact. Function comes into play as we acknowledge the diverse roles others fulfill, meeting our physical, emotional, and achievement needs. Quality can span the spectrum from highly positive and nurturing to hostile and conflict-ridden, pointing to the need for high-quality and fulfilling relationships and interactions. Together, these exert a multifaceted impact on our health and well-being.
We all face barriers to connection, whether it is a busy schedule, geographical distance, poor health, or our insecurities. As we think about prioritizing our connections, we need to consider each aspect of social connection. Improving and prioritizing our social connections can not only increase our happiness and quality of relationships but also increase our physical health, longevity of our lives, and overall well-being. As you settle into a new routine, seek to improve the elements of connection in your life by asking yourself a few questions:
· Do I prioritize the relationships that matter most to me?
· Do I make time in my busy schedule for socializing?
· Do I regularly check in on the people I care about to see how they are doing?
· Do I have a group (e.g., book club, hobby, fitness, faith) I consistently participate in?
· Do I spend time in my community to provide opportunities to get to know or strengthen my relationships with my neighbors?
· Do I practice kindness, respect, and responsive listening in my interactions with others?
You can build and strengthen your relationships in many ways, but if you find yourself answering “no” to some or all of these questions, ask yourself why not. Are you spending your time on the things that matter most to you? If not, it is time to prioritize what matters most.
1. Two Charts from Callum Thomas…Retail Bulled Up and Hedge Funds Bull Up
Ravenous Retail: Also, retail have not been shaken in the slightest, and in figuring out whether the correction is healthy or not, one sign of health would be a shaking out vs apparent surge in retail flows.
Hedge Fund Tech Bandwagon: And hedgies are also bulled up… got to get that bonus and there’s been one sure thing to ride this year. Often find that the hedge fund crowd pile into the main momentum play of the market, and it works fine, and gets their P&L targets filled… until it (usually suddenly and violently) stops working and they all rush to reduce risk.
2. China Trading at ½ the U.S. P/E Ratio …Apple stock share of MSCI index is Bigger than Entire Chinese Market.
WSJ By James MackintoshThe question is: How cheap should China be? Past evidence suggests it can get much cheaper in a crisis. In the 2008-09 financial crisis, China traded at 6.6 times forward earnings, and was below 10 for most of the time from 2011 to 2015. It is also one of the few countries whose history includes a thriving stock market that went to zero, after the Communist revolution in 1949.
Yet, China is remarkably cheap compared with the U.S. The gap between the U.S. and China valuations has only been this wide briefly in 2020 and 2021, according to MSCI data starting in 2003.
3. China Share of Exports to U.S., Europe and Japan are in Steady Decline.
Torston Slok Apllo The share of Chinese exports to the US, Europe, and Japan has declined steadily over the past twenty years, see the first chart below.
Similarly, China is today the top export destination for eight of the G20 countries, up from zero in 2000, see maps below.
4. Grayscale Bitcoin Chart
GBTC still 20% discount to NAV….almost 3x off bottom….right against 200-week moving average
5. Nike and Under Armour No Post-Covid Recovery
NIKE 2021 high was $175
UA 2021 high $23…..$7 last
6. Chewy Covid Favorite About to Make New Low
7. Energy Stocks Making New Highs…XLE Energy Sector ETF
The real estate marketplace says qualified buyers can save up to buy a home in less than a year.
BYMINDA ZETLIN, AUTHOR OF ‘CAREER SELF-CARE: FIND YOUR HAPPINESS, SUCCESS, AND FULFILLMENT AT WORK‘@MINDAZETLIN
Real Estate marketplace Zillow is offering some home buyers the opportunity to purchase a home with a downpayment of just 1 percent. For those who qualify, Zillow will kick in 2 percent more at closing, for a total down payment of 3 percent. The new program is already in place in Arizona, and will roll out to other states, the company says. It’s a very, very smart move, one every business can learn from.
The idea is to help people who can afford to pay a mortgage but don’t have enough saved for even a 3 percent down payment, the company says. It notes that in the Phoenix area, someone making $79,200 a year–80 percent of the local median income–and saving 5 percent of that income can have enough for a 1 percent down payment on a $275,000 home in 11 months, compared with 31 months for a 3 percent down payment.
Buying with only a 1 percent downpayment may or may not be a smart move for a home purchaser. But offering that 1 percent option is a brilliant move on Zillow’s part. First, consider that Zillow is a marketplace whose business model is to sell advertising on its site (especially now that Zillow has stopped buying and selling houses on its own behalf). That business model is brilliant to begin with because it means that the company is insulated from fluctuations in real estate prices. As long as companies have houses and other things to sell, they’ll want to advertise, and Zillow can lap up those ad dollars whether the real estate market is up or down.
Want to Be a Millionaire? First You Need to Find Your Purpose00:0But what happens when things grind to a near-standstill because no one is selling or buying homes–which is the situation we’re in right now? Then, there’s a lot less advertising and Zillow’s revenues can suffer. So the company has every interest in getting transactions moving again. Allowing people to buy a home with a $2,750 down payment instead of $8,250 is one way to help make that happen.
That’s the first thing that’s smart about Zillow’s 1 percent down payment initiative. The second thing that’s smart is that it was clearly intended to generate some headlines for the company, and it has done just that. The last time Zillow was in the headlines was for a much less happy reason–the company announced it was shutting down its program to buy and flip homes and laying off 25 percent of its staff after some serious losses. Good publicity is hard to create and often more valuable than paid advertising. The 2 percent of downpayments Zillow is kicking in are creating a ton of publicity for Zillow. For the company, this is money very well spent.
1. Novo Nordisk Riding Weight Loss Drug to Becoming Europe’s Most Valuable Company
Chart Blog Outweighed Novo Nordisk, the Danish pharma company responsible for Ozempicand Wegovy— two of the buzziest drugs in the weight loss game — has been bulking up, with its market cap. recently crossing the$400 billionthreshold, surpassing Denmark’s annual GDP. With sales up 30%, net profit rising 43%, and supply restrictions still in place for its most popular medication, Novo unsurprisingly raised its outlook for 2023 in its report earlier this month, as demand for the company’s “wonder drugs” continues to rise. Very good shape The drug maker’s ascent has been meteoric, especially for a company celebrating its 100th birthday in a few months. The hype around its two flagship treatments — which both trace back to the 2012 development of semaglitude, designed to tackle type 2 diabetes — has catapulted Novo Nordisk to second on the list of Europe’s most valuable public companies, only behind luxury fashion giant LVMH. For another sense of scale, Novois now worth more than McDonald’s and Netflixcombined.
The company’s become so large, the government in Denmark — a nation of fewer than 6 millionpeople — is considering publishing separate economic statistics that strip out the “Novo effect”. The pharma giant’s success comes at a good time for Denmark after one of the country’s other iconic brands, Lego, suffered a rare misstep and recorded its largest profit drop for almost 2 decades.
US health officials are recommending easing restrictions on marijuana, a move that sets the stage for potentially expanding the cannabis market across the country.
A top official at the Department of Health and Human Services wrote Drug Enforcement Agency Administrator Anne Milgram calling for marijuana to be reclassified as a Schedule III drug under the Controlled Substances Act, according to a letter dated Aug. 29 that was seen by Bloomberg News.
A DEA spokesperson confirmed the department had received the letter with HHS’s recommendation. With final authority to reschedule a drug, DEA will now initiate its own review, the spokesperson said.
3. In the past 3 weeks, more than 400,000 news articles were published that mentioned China. More than 33,000 of them were explicitly negative. That’s the highest ratio in at least a decade
Dave Lutz Jones Trading CHINA PMIS– China’s August PMIs look set to show broad deterioration, with the official services gauge falling close to the contraction threshold and the manufacturing gauge showing activity shrinking at a faster rate. Brisk travel during the summer holiday season likely failed to offset a host of negatives – including a deepening housing slump – that have hurt investment and consumption, Bloomberg says.
“In the past 3 weeks, more than 400,000 news articles were published that mentioned China. More than 33,000 of them were explicitly negative. That’s the highest ratio in at least a decade. The only other time that came close was 8 years ago almost to the day”
(SentimentTrader) – the End of 2013 was not a bad time to own China Equities. SHCOMP rallied 159% over the next 2 years
4. China Moves Over the Last Month
5. Chinese Internet Stock ETF Sideways for Almost 2 Years
Zerohedge Investors bought a total of $36.4 billion worth of homes in the second quarter, down 42% from a year earlier. That’s still above pre-pandemic levels, but dropping closer to it: Investors bought a total of $34 billion in the second quarter of 2018, and a total of $31.9 billion in the second quarter of 2019. The typical home purchased by investors in the second quarter cost $470,120, comparable with the $467,885 median price a year earlier.
In terms of market share, investors bought 15.6% of homes that were sold in the U.S. during the second quarter, down from 19.7% a year earlier and a record high of 20.4% in the beginning of 2022.
And while investors’ market share is still above pre-pandemic levels (15.6% compared with roughly 14% in the second quarters of both 2018 and 2019), real estate investors are steadily pulling back.Their market share has dropped or remained flat every quarter since it peaked at the start of 2022.
Overthinking can paralyse decision-making and cost your career- Eva M. Krockow Ph.D.
KEY POINTS
Overthinking simple decisions can lead to analysis paralysis and prevent us from making a choice altogether.
In sports, overthinking can result in athletes experiencing the yips, a sudden loss of skill.
The yips are a psychological phenomenon, which is surprisingly difficult to overcome and can cost careers.
Ever heard of Buridan’s ass? No, not that kind ofass!
I’m talking about the horse-like animal otherwise known as the donkey. More specifically, the donkey is famously stuck in a choice dilemma described by French philosopher Jean Buridan. The donkey in question faces a tricky choice. She finds herself in the middle of two identical haystacks. With both stacks equal in distance, size, and hayey goodness, the donkey has absolutely no preference for either. Deeply troubled, she looks from one haystack to the other. Which one should she choose? She supposes she might be able to gobble up both, but again: Which one should be first? The despairing ass finds herself trapped in an impossible conundrum. Hours and days pass by, until she suffers the tragic consequences of her indecision, eventually succumbing to starvation.
What do you make of this little tale? Fair enough, it’s hard to feel sorry for a donkey who starves to death with perfectly good food in plain sight. Indeed, the entire story seems somewhat far-fetched. After all, when do we ever find ourselves presented with completely identical options? And isn’t it obvious that a random choice is always preferable to starvation? Also, if the dilemma is too tough to resolve, couldn’t the ass just walk away and find herself a third haystack to munch on?
Analysis paralysis
It’s easy to discount Buridan’s ass as just another philosophical thought experiment with little real-life relevance. But hold your horses (or donkeys) and wait until you write it off completely! The starving ass offers an important lesson for human decision-making that’s often overlooked: Overthinking your choices can have dangerous consequences.
By obsessively weighing up similar or near-identical options, we stand very little to gain. After all, the outcomes are likely to be almost the same. However, the lengthy decision process may lead to unnecessary delays or even prevent us from making a choice altogether—often at a significant personal detriment. Umming and erring over which outfit to buy may mean you wear the same old clothes forever. Not being able to choose between two parties may leave you spending the evening at home alone. Struggling to commit to one of two lovers may mean you lose them both.
This phenomenon of indecision, often referred to as analysis paralysis, may be linked to perfectionist attitudes and the desire to identify the very best option, which I discussed in a recent post on satisficing. Additionally, it can be worsened by the availability of too many options, resulting in choice overload that leaves you feeling overwhelmed.
Overthinking in sports
Interestingly, the tendency to overthink choices and actions can even interfere with trained intuition and experience. A striking example of this comes from the context of competitive sports such as golf, tennis, or cricket, where skilled athletes sometimes report the sudden loss of skills acquired during years of practice. The phenomenon is commonly referred to as the “yips”, “choking,” or the “twisties” depending on the context, and research suggests it may be linked to heightened levels of anxiety, self-conscious overthinking, and perfectionism. By trying to consciously master certain movements or actions, athletes affected by the yips may end up bypassing their muscle memory and fail to perform to the standard they are used to.
Researchers have tried to understand the bizarre phenomenon through qualitative studies. One project involved interviewing competitive cricket players who had suffered the yips, and identifying common themes associated with their symptoms. Extreme anxiety and panic were reported frequently, with one interviewee explaining: “I felt very nervous and out of control—I know it sounds stupid but it was like I’d been taken over, I just couldn’t do it.” Trying to compensate for their nerves, it appeared that the affected cricketers tried to overthink and control their subsequent movements. This strategy was rarely followed by success, as illustrated by the following comment: “I was telling myself when to let it go [the ball] because I realized I was not letting the ball go at the right time, so I was saying to myself “let it go” and, of course, you can’t say that because by the time you’ve said that your arm is down on the ground.”
Sudden, cruel, and often difficult to overcome, the yips have ruined entire careers, for example, forcing gymnast Simone Biles to withdraw from the Olympics and Stephen Hendry to abandon his previously skyrocketing career in snooker.
Researchers, sports psychologists, and athletes agree that it’s hard to understand “the yips” if you haven’t experienced them yourself. If you’re struggling to understand the concept of overthinking, I leave you to ponder the following little poem:
The Centipede’s Dilemma Katherine Craster A centipede was happy – quite! Until a toad in fun Said, “Pray, which leg moves after which?” This raised her doubts to such a pitch, She fell exhausted in the ditch Not knowing how to run.
1. Longest Streak without 2% Move in S&P Since 2018
Dave Lutz Jones Trading The SPX has now gone more than 5 months without a 2% move. This is the longest such streak since 2018 notes the Twits.
2. World Oil Demand Breakout
Callum Thomas Topdown Charts Fundamental Breakout: I’m a big fan of using technical breakouts as a prompt to take a closer look at a certain asset or market (to then go and build out the rest of the picture) —but a less common approach is to look at breakouts in fundamental indicators.
The chart shows world oil demand (across all products, think: gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG, etc), what should be no surprise is the collapse in 2020 (as humanity collectively hit the pause button on travel), and also should be no surprise is the subsequent stop-start reopening rebound.
Some of the richest people in the world are (land)banking on a new California utopia.
The New York Times reports that several of the techiest bros have banded together to buy up $800 million worth of land in Solano County, California—just a few hours outside of the San Francisco Bay Area—with the intent to build a new city.
With Silicon Valley-area real estate constantly getting snapped up faster than you can say “vest,” Big Tech moguls have grown frustrated with the lack of housing options impacting their ability to expand their workforces. The new city, pitched as a clean-energy, public-transit-accessible, high-density urban area, is meant to combat the problem.
That explains why the land’s mystery buyers turned out to be a who’s who of tech entrepreneurship. The NYT found:
The company making the purchases is Flannery Associates, the creation of former Goldman Sachs trader Jan Sramek.
Investors include Sequoia Capital Chairman Michael Moritz, LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman, venture capitalists Marc Andreessen and Chris Dixon of a16z, Stripe co-founders Patrick Collison and John Collison, and Emerson Collective founder (and Steve Jobs’s widow), Laurene Powell Jobs.
Will it be a real city or a pie in the sky?
To the list of billionaires above, this city represents the greatest opportunity since a man built a computer in his garage, relieving some of California’s massive housing shortage and creating thousands of new jobs, increased tax revenue, and infrastructure investment.
But…California is a notoriously difficult place to build new houses, and most of the property that Flannery bought is not zoned for residential use.
Rep. John Garamendi, who represents a district where some of the land is, told Bloomberg that Solano County’s residents would likely need to pass a rezoning initiative for the development to have a chance—and he said that’s unlikely. It probably won’t help that many residents were sued by Flannery in 2018 for allegedly conspiring to raise land prices.—CC
10. I’m the former VP of HR at Microsoft. I’ve witnessed many bad managers in my career — and they almost all had these 4 traits-Business Insider
Chris Williams is a former Microsoft VP of HR and a podcaster, consultant, and TikTok creator.
He writes that bad managers are often self-centered and overly focused on their image.
Williams also says that bad managers are so afraid of failure that their teams bury any evidence of it.
Bad managers stress about how they look to their boss: Do I look strong or weak? Do they think I’m an idiot? How do my peers see me? What about those above my boss?
Bad managers fret about what their team thinks of them. They want desperately to be looked up to. They must have all the answers. Rather than focus on issues, it’s all about appearances. They want to appear strong, unflappable, even invincible to their team.
A few managers do this out of ego. They need to be the center of attention, the focus of their world. They want everything in their team to be for their benefit. Perhaps to enhance their career. More often to stoke their ego.
But the egotists are the exception, not the rule. More common are the worriers. The nervous managers cowering under the weight of their own imposter syndrome. You can tell them from the egotists by their tentative approach to problems. Afraid of being exposed, they put on the bravest of faces. But it’s just a mask. Worried what others must think of them. Not realizing how rarely others ever do.
Failing to see that it’s the results that count, they worry about image. Their image. So, they try to control every aspect of their presentation to others.
Instead of working with their team to create the results that would get them notice, they make it all about themselves.
2. Input-focused
Most bad managers are inordinately focused on the inputs to their processes, not the output results of the team.
They stress about employees who are two minutes late or too often in the restroom. They track their employees’ every move, their every keystroke. They worry about hours input, not results output.
Their obsession with image spills out here as well. They stress about professional appearance, not professional results. They want everyone to always at least look busy. There’s no greater crime than a happy employee enjoying their time with their co-workers. It’s all business, all the time.
These managers relentlessly track everything, all the wrong things. They track time spent with the customer, not whether the customer was satisfied. They track keystrokes per minute, not problems resolved. They monitor employees as if they were robots, looking for the slightest variation from their ideal automaton.These managers lose sight of the forest for the trees. Instead of being obsessed with results, sales, and happy customers, they are focused on the inputs — the inputs that feel easier to control.
3. Afraid of failure
A spin off from the obsession with image, these bad managers are deeply afraid of failure. Particularly any appearance of failure that might reflect poorly on them.
Rather than embracing the odd failure as the inevitable consequence of a team that’s pushing the boundaries, these managers are obsessed with perfection. Instead of searching for causes, they hunt for someone to blame. Rather than finding a chance for all to learn, they see a reason to be embarrassed.
Outwardly, they bury any evidence of a misstep, hoping it never sees the light of day. Worried it will reflect badly on their record, they find excuses or culprits. Anywhere else to cast the negative light.
Consequently, the team becomes trained to also bury any evidence of failure.Results are even falsified to prevent disclosure of any outcome that falls short of perfection. Just like their manager, they grow averse to failure. The better to avoid the harsh consequences of discovery.
The team becomes tentative, careful in every step. No risks are taken, and no boundaries are even approached, lest the result be the smallest failing. Safe and cautious to the point of being timid, the team underperforms. Only to earn the further ire of the perfectionist in chief.Rather than push the team the bad manager plays everything safe. Rather than learn from, even embrace, failure, they lash out and bury it.
4. Information hoarder
All of this leads to a manager who treats information as a precious commodity to be hoarded — rather than a gift to be shared.
The bad manager controls the narrative both into and out of the team. They maintain strict control over communication outside the team. They monitor email and meetings, insisting on being copied or included. They meticulously review and edit every scrap of information that might find its way to the higher-ups.
Afraid of upsetting the team, the bad manager hides bad news they learn from above or around them. They portray it as heroically shielding the team from the noise. In reality, they are postponing the inevitable discovery through other sources. Without control of the news, the manager only looks worse, their greatest fear.The manager and the team soon find themselves lying to each other. And to everyone outside. “Everything’s great here; no need to worry about us.” Even as the fires of doom burn ever closer.
Teams run by bad managers often resemble cults in this way. They become isolated islands cut off from the rest of the organization. “I can’t tell you, that’s need to know” or “you wouldn’t understand” are common refrains.These teams rarely outperform, but you’d never know that from the limited available information — information hoarded jealously by their bad manager.
Managers like this are famous — for the wrong reasons
With this array of common traits, bad managers often become famous within the organization. But not in the way they would hope. They are looked on with disdain, even pity, from the outside. Smart employees warn their peers to avoid them. Refugees from the team tell stories far and wide. Many simply quit to escape the pain.
If you find yourself on their team, the best approach is to find a way out. They will likely outlast you, and wear you down.
Which highlights their most troublesome trait, the bad manager endures. They even ramp up their tactics. Their carefully masked image of success hides them from consequences. The organization suffers, often rewarding the behavior that makes them such bad managers in the first place. Like cockroaches in the end times, bad managers find a way to endure.
Chris Williams is a former vice president of HR at Microsoft and a leadership advisor, podcaster, TikTok creator, and author.
6. Credit Card Delinquency Rates Much Higher for Small Banks.
Despite the unemployment rate being at the lowest level in 50 years, credit card delinquency rates at small banks are at the highest level on record, see chart below. Imagine where these lines will be once the labor market finally begins to soften. Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, PartnerApollo Global Management
7. China Evergrande Group is Now a Penny Stock…$340B in Debt.
3. Shrinking Number of Stocks vs. Growing Number of Private Equity Backed Companies
Callum Thomas Privatization: This should be a shocking chart for passive index investors — more and more of the universe of US companies are ending up in the hands of private equity, with relatively fewer staying or joining public markets. One implication would be potentially a less diversified listed market over time, but also potential risks in private markets due to less transparency and greater leverage that typically comes with private equity investors. It also gives nod to the flood of capital into alternative assets in the zero-interest rate period and in the wake of the dot-com and financial crisis bear markets (that in-part drove investors into the ostensibly lower volatility of private equity vs listed companies).
A once-hot sliver of the exchange-traded funds universe focused on thematic investing is having another difficult year.
Investors have yanked roughly $2.6 billion from these types of ETFs so far in 2023, putting them on pace for their worst year of outflows in data going back to 2001, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. If the trend holds it will be the second consecutive year of cash leaving thematic funds, the first such losing streak of the last two decades.
Much of the cash drainage can be attributed to funds that are part of the ARK Investment Management suite, where the firm’s Innovation fund (ticker ARKK) has seen more than $450 million flee this year. Money has also come out of the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW), as well as out of the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG), among others.
5. Chinese Small Cap Stocks Approaching 10-Year Lows
ECNS Chinese small cap ETF broke 10-year in late 2022….Now making another run at new low.
6. Real U.S. Wages Moved Back to Positive Territory
9. Get Ready for $20B in Spending on Presidential Election
Chartr Blog Indeed, data from OpenSecrets reveals that the most recent presidential election set a new record as the most expensive cycle in history — and by some way, with political spending for the 2020 showdown tallying an eye-watering $14.4bn, or a staggering $16bn if adjusted for inflation.
5. 20% of Private Valuation Unicorns Fall in AI Sub-Sector
MorningstarJohn Rekenthaler Most unicorns sell technology. One fifth of unicorn assets are in companies devoted to artificial intelligence, with another 15% in financial technology and 12% in e-commerce businesses. Software services, telecommunications, and biotechnology are also well-represented.
6. Regional Bank ETF Bounce did not get Close to 200 Week Moving Average
Unfortunately, many of the business professionals I meet these days in my mentoring and consulting activities feel perennially stressed and out of control, versus calm and satisfied with their position. They realize that their productivity is suffering, as well as their health, but they don’t know what to do about it. In my experience, it’s all about work-life balance and enjoying the role.
Over my years in business, I have accumulated a list of recommended strategies for keeping cool and calm in the face of increasing demands at work. On the top of my list is a focus on minimizing multitasking, a result of continuous smartphone and email alerts, as well as an instant gratification mentality. Trying to do too many things at the same time, in my view, results in nothing done well.
Here is my prioritized list of work management strategies I recommend to all business professionals and entrepreneurs:
1. Avoid reliance on multitasking to keep up with requests.
Take the time to fully focus on each task you are faced with, and your decisions and productivity will improve. Make every effort to have your mind be totally present for each challenge from a team member or customer. You will also find this reduces stress and allows you to stay cool and calm.
Some recent studies by scientists assert that multitasking not only reduces your output, but it also reduces your IQ. Some say that when people do two cognitive tasks at once, their cognitive capacity can drop from that of a Harvard MBA to that of an 8-year-old.
2. Schedule uncomfortable tasks when you are fresh and alert.
Practice scheduling your most onerous tasks, such as counseling team members or meeting unhappy customers, when you are most calm and collected at the beginning of a day, or when you are least likely to be distracted. Balance your time on strategy and operational issues.
In simple terms, this means managing your own schedule, rather than allowing events and distractions to manage you. Some successful people do this by establishing a routine and sticking to it, or by writing down and managing their own list of open work items.
3. Practice patience to listen before reacting out of emotion.
Always start by taking a few deep breaths to reset your mind and body when approached with a new issue. Then actively listen to input, asking questions to get to the root cause before jumping to conclusions that may be clouded by ego, biases, and previous similar experiences.
4. Look at each challenge with a fresh and clean perspective.
Avoid the tendency to jump to a conclusion based on past situations. Challenge yourself to avoid emotional reactions and look for fresh new information rather than stereotypes. Express your logic out loud and ask trusted associates to critique your perspective for credibility.
5. Seek to provide thoughtful and sincere responses to input.
This effort will force your mind to organize thoughts and structure your understanding of the issues at hand. Focus on a calm and sensitive delivery to gain the trust and credibility you need for maximum impact and following from constituents. The results will be more satisfying for you as well.
6. Find an activity to clear your head and refocus on the positives.
For some of us, that may mean taking a coffee break or a walk around the park. Let go of the hard negatives and focus on the rewards for yourself and other team members. Another alternative is to switch often to less demanding tasks, such as email or managing by walking around.
7. Avoid extended internal battles with tough problems.
Make a reasonable mental effort to understand and resolve every challenge, but don’t rehash every issue incessantly to the point of mental exhaustion and frustration. There will always be some problems that aren’t easily solved, and more pain will only make you less effective.
8. Intentionally schedule at least one enjoyable activity every day.
Try to balance the difficult tasks on your schedule, such as counseling employees, with ones you look forward to. For some of us, that may mean quiet time to contemplate strategy, or coffee time to chat with team members and customers. Celebrate even small successes.
In today’s business environment of information overload and a thousand ways to get interrupted, we all face the same pressure to move fast, and deal with the many distractions. I challenge each of you to spend more time managing your time and focus, rather than simply trying to react real-time to all the competing demands coming your way. Your career and your health depend on it.
AUG 22, 2023
The opinions expressed here by Inc.com columnists are their own, not those of Inc.com.
A refreshed look at leadership from the desk of CEO and chief content officer Stephanie Mehta
The drip, drip, drip of the finance industry’s exit from New York and California has been measured anecdotally, one at a time, these past few years. Elliott Management decamped to West Palm Beach. AllianceBernstein to Nashville. Charles Schwab moved to suburban Dallas.
Now, for the first time, there are hard numbers quantifying the exact scope of the exodus. Both states have in the past three years lost firms that managed close to $1 trillion of assets, Bloomberg News calculated after going through corporate filings from more than 17,000 firms since the end of 2019.
The exodus from the Northeast and West Coast has meant the loss of thousands of high-paying jobs, straining city and state finances by sapping tax revenue. Commercial property markets have also lost valuable tenants at the same time they’ve been struggling with the new realities of hybrid work.
· Romance reached over 39 million printed units sold over the last 12 months as of May 2023.
· Romance sales grew by 52% compared to the 12 months ending May 2022, and this has been the third consecutive year with positive growth in romance novel sales in printed format.
· Sales of romance novels more than doubled compared to 2021 figures (12 months ending May 2021).
· Over 33% of books sold in mass-market paperback format were romance novels.
10. This Is How To Succeed Under Pressure: 4 Secrets From Astronauts
Eric Barker
This is how to succeed under pressure:
“Okay, what’s the next thing that will kill me?”: Negative thinking can be a positive during a crisis. When you’re facing a perverse all-you-can-eat buffet of misery, anticipating problems and finding solutions is a superpower, while “thinking it will all work out” leads to a passive demise.
“Sweat the small stuff”: Prepare. And then prepare some more. You may think you’re busy now but you will always have more time before a problem strikes than when you’re in the middle of it.
“Working the problem”: Find a way to safely experience the challenge before it ever hits. May sound like the emotional equivalent of chewing aluminum foil but nothing beats the understanding and experience from having dealt with a problem previously.
“How can I help us get where we need to go?”: Yes, it seems like some people are only here to give you a head start on a midlife crisis. The first thing is don’t make things worse. Don’t be afraid to be a big steaming pile of mediocrity at first. Be competent and trustworthy and then find the best way to be a “plus one.”
1. Stock Bond Ratio Breaks Way Above 25 Year Range
Callum Thomas Chart Storm Stocks vs Bonds: As a continuation or different angle on the previous chart, this one shows just how sharp and stark the disconnect between stocks and bonds has become — thanks to the most catastrophic run of performance for treasuries in recent history, stocks have absolutely smashed bonds on a relative performance basis. But to pause and reflect, this chart does NOT look sustainable. https://www.chartstorm.info/
2. Huge Spread Between Nasdaq and Russell 2000 Small Cap 2023
From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading
3. Analysts Raise Forward Earnings Estimates
4. China High Yield Real Estate Chart
Callum Thomas @Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm) Next Shoe to Drop: Aside from the tech/rates aspect, also lurking in the background is increasingly bad macro in China. Now eventually this may become a case of “bad news is good news” when/if China opts for large scale stimulus to avert a deflationary spiral, but I would say until then it’s probably going to be a case of bad news is bad news (at least for those actually paying attention).
2. Technology Sector Forward P/E vs. Remaining S&P
JP Morgan Private Wealth
3. Semiconductors Forward P/E Ratios Trading in 99th Percentile vs. 10 Year History
Marketwatch BCA Research has downgraded the semiconductor sector to underweight, and the charts below help explain why. Chip prices are falling pushing sales drastically lower, but share prices have done well.
“Demand for AI chips remains strong, but it does little good to most chip companies except Nvidia and AMD. TSMC said that AI chips account for only 6% of its sales,” says BCA. “The industry trades at 28.5x forward earnings, which is the 99th percentile relative to 10 years of history. The BCA Valuations and Technical indicators signal that the industry is both overvalued and overbought relative to the S&P 500. “
Tiny homes are being developed near Converse, where Lennar Homes continues to rapidly expand into various markets centering around San Antonio. Credit: Scott Ball / San Antonio Report
With a small yard and inviting front porch, the newly built houses along a short street in an established neighborhood in far northeastern Bexar County have all the trademarks of a single-family home.
What makes them unusual perhaps, at least for a house in San Antonio, Texas, is the minimal size of not just the house but also the lot. Another key difference: the price tag of just over $150,000. More small-home developments like Elm Trails could be coming as the solution to a nationwide housing shortage and the rising cost of building materials. But only if cities allow it.
Miami-based homebuilder Lennar Homes started construction months ago in the Spring Meadows subdivision near Converse, building two styles of detached homes that range between about 350 and 660 square feet — a size that’s comparable to a studio apartment. At least 30 are in various stages of construction in Elm Trails. A total of 100 houses eventually will be built.The two-story homes come with one bedroom and one or two bathrooms, depending on the model, and an open floor plan with a fully-equipped kitchen. In the Cooley model, a built-in ladder is used to access the upper-level open space, and in the Henley, a narrow set of stairs leads to a sitting area and bedroom.
The houses stand side-by-side along a street named Elm Cove, two-tenths of a mile long, and three smaller streets. The homes are built on lots that measure about 20 feet across, leaving a narrow space between each residence. Building codes in Converse, as in San Antonio, require most new single-family homesites to be a minimum of 60 or 65 feet wide, with some exceptions.But Elm Trails is outside of city limits, where lot size is not regulated.
Not bigger in Texas San Antonio is the first city where the nationwide homebuilder has built its small-scale homes, said Brian Barron, San Antonio division president for Lennar. “We’ve been working on bringing these homes to market for the past two years or so,” Barron said. “We took what we had seen nationally with the growing acceptance of small-footprint homes and began researching what it would take to do that across an entire community.”
The National Association of Home Builders reported in November that the median size of new family homes is 2,276 square feet, down from a high of about 2,700 square feet in 2015. Rising interest rates and construction costs are partly the reason for the trend toward smaller homes.
Small-home developments could be the answer to housing shortages and rising costs. But zoning is often a roadblock.“As more and more municipalities address affordability, we believe it will be important that traditional zoning requirements are updated to reflect new types of housing,” Barron said.While Elm Trails is a full residential development made up of tiny homes, the prevalence of small
Raw talent/intelligence – Some people are just naturally better and smarter.
Hard work – Some people work harder.
Differentiation – Seeing the world differently. Doing something different. Reading different books. Interpreting the same information differently.
Process / Discipline – Creating a process and following it. Working out every day is a great example.
Talent Collector – The ability to hire the best people and get the most out of them.
Patience – A lack of patience changes the outcome.
Ability to take pain – Are you willing to look like an idiot to get better? How much risk are you willing to take, AND, importantly, can you handle the losses?
Temperament – Keeping your head when everyone else is losing theirs.
13.3% of US goods were imported from China during the first six months of 2023, the smallest percentage in 20 years.
Mexico is now the #1 trading partner with the US, followed by Canada. China, which held the top spot from 2015-2018 and again in 2020, has dropped down to third place.
7. Weekly Gasoline Prices Rise for 6th Straight Week
Advisors Perspectives Blog by Jennifer Nash As of August 14, the price of regular and premium gas each rose by 2 cents and 3 cents, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for regular at $5.11 and Mississippi has the cheapest at $3.29.
While fitness watches offer an estimate of your VO2 max, they might not be as accurate as an actual test.
DREAMSTIME
When it comes to fitness and even longevity, there is one number to rule them all: VO2 max.
The number measures the maximum amount of oxygen a person can use during intense exercise. A person awaiting a heart transplant might score below 10 while a world-class endurance athlete might be above 70 or even 80. Many health experts consider it the single best indicator of cardiorespiratory fitness, and research has found it correlates to longevity as well.
“The relationship between VO2 max and all-cause mortality is quite good,” says Dr. Michael Joyner, an anesthesiologist and fitness expert at the Mayo Clinic. “The odds of dying in the next 10 years are markedly low if your VO2 max is high.”
So what is VO2 max and why is it such a good measure of total health?
For starters, the test measures how multiple systems of your body function during hard exercise, including your heart, lungs, muscles, and veins, according to Dr. Kerry Stewart, a clinical and research exercise physiologist at Johns Hopkins School of Medicine. People who score well are less likely to have diabetes and high levels of LDL, or so-called bad cholesterol, and more likely to have high levels of HDL, or “good” cholesterol.
The American Heart Association in 2016 issued a scientific statement recommending that an assessment of cardiorespiratory fitness be considered a key vital sign in evaluating a person’s heart disease risk and overall health. It said that cardiorespiratory fitness was “was a potentially stronger predictor of mortality than established risk factors such as smoking, hypertension, high cholesterol, and Type 2 diabetes.”
High cardiorespiratory fitness is also linked to lower rates for certain types of cancer, according to the National Cancer Institute. It also appears to help people already diagnosed with cancer. “Research findings have raised the possibility that physical activity may have beneficial effects on survival for patients with breast, colorectal, and prostate cancers,”the institute said.
The positive news is that you can increase your VO2 score. How? By exercising. The harder you push yourself, the more you can improve your score. Even brisk walks around the neighborhood could lift the scores and health of millions of inactive Americans.
How can you measure your VO2 max? The most accurate tests are done in a laboratory where you are hooked up to a mask that measures oxygen consumption as you exercise. If you are on a treadmill, you are told to walk or run faster and faster until your oxygen consumption stops rising. If you go beyond this point, you will increasingly be using anaerobic energy—which doesn’t burn oxygen—and you will have trouble sustaining it for long periods.
Today, some fitness devices, including Apple Watch and Fitbit, can estimate your VO2 max score based on your heart rate and, in some cases, the speed you are moving. They aren’t as accurate as a laboratory VO2 max test, say doctors Joyner and Stewart. “They are reasonable estimates based on reasonable algorithms,” Joyner says.
VO2 is commonly measured in milliliters of oxygen consumed a minute per kilogram of body weight. An average adult might score 35. Endurance athletes can be twice that or even higher.
Sometimes, cardiorespiratory fitness is expressed in METs, a measure of metabolic energy. (METs are calculated by taking your VO2 max score and dividing it by 3.5.) One MET is the amount of oxygen a person uses while seated and at rest. If your exertion level rises to two METS, that means you’re using twice as much oxygen. A VO2 max of eight to 10 METs is considered healthy for an average adult, while one of less than five METs is considered worrisome.
“People who have more severe disease generally can’t achieve five METs worth of work,” Stewart said.
Women, because they tend to have less muscle per kilogram of body weight than men, usually score lower, though the best female endurance athletes still post high numbers. And just as with men, higher VO2 scores for women correlate to athletic performance and mortality.
VO2 scores decrease as people age because their maximum heart rate declines and they lose muscle mass and thus burn less oxygen. So a score that would be low for a woman in her 20s might be an elite score for a woman in her 70s.
To calculate VO2, The Apple Watch uses a combination of heart rate, weight, age, other personal information and walking or running speed to measure cardiovascular fitness. It is accurate within an average of one MET of an actual VO2 max test, according to Apple.
If you walk on sand or uphill or anything that makes walking or running more arduous, that will make your Apple Watch VO2 max score appear worse. Also, if you take medicines that slow your heart rate like beta blockers or calcium channel blockers, it will make your score appear better. The Apple Watch asks you to list any heart-slowing medicines, and then makes adjustments for them.
It used to be that you had to exercise to calculate VO2 max on an Apple Watch. But an Apple watch is now set up so that you can get a score from walking around. Your score appears in the Apple Health app, in the heart section under cardio fitness.
Fitbit also estimates your VO2 max score from your resting heart rate, age, sex, weight, and other personal information, and uses it to calculate a fitness level between one (poor) and six (excellent). If your Fitbit connects to GPS, you can obtain a more precise score by going on a run.
How hard is it to improve VO2 max score? That depends on your fitness level. Someone who is inactive could improve their VO2 max through moderate exercise and make a significant improvement in their health.
Fit people have to push harder. That means either exercising longer or exercising harder. Or both. The Center for Disease Control recommends that adults get 150 minutes of moderate exercise or 75 minutes of vigorous exercise a week. You can get additional health benefits by doing two or even three times as much exercise, but there are diminishing returns. Dr. Joyner says, “You get 70% to 80% of the benefits by following the CDC’s basic guidelines,” he says.
Lifting weights can also help your VO2 score. That’s particularly true for older people who have lost muscle mass and replaced it with fat. Weights can help reverse that process.
And one of the fastest ways to improve your VO2 max is to lose weight.
For those who are serious about improving their VO2 max, Joyner recommends that they add interval training to their routines. A popular approach now is 4×4 interval training, where you do four intervals of intense exercise, separated by rest between each interval.
“In general, for any person to reach their personal biological upper limit, they need to do interval training,” Joyner says.
Corrections & amplifications: Kerry Stewart is a clinical and research exercise physiologist at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine who does work in cardiology. An earlier version of this article incorrectly called him a cardiologist.
The Daily Stoic Those shoes you’re wearing were likely made in a sweatshop by a child in horrendous labor conditions. That luxury handbag is a few dollars worth of leather and a fortune in deceptive advertising and branding. Those two politicians with radically different agendas are ladder-climbing friends behind the scenes, with the same corporate donors. Those big tough rappers whose beef you’re following are two poets laughing all the way to the bank. That fancy car will not only lose half its value when you drive it off the lot…but many of the cars on that same lot share the same chassis, were made in the same factories, and cost a lot less. Those songs were written by teams of songwriters, the pop star given public credit to preserve their ‘authenticity.’ That ripped actor is on steroids, that beautiful actress had plastic surgery and her images are photoshopped…and by the way, both of them are thrice married for a reason.
This list–not a conclusive one by a long shot–is not a morning dose of nihilism. It is, however, an exercise that Marcus Aurelius tried to practice in his own way. This expensive wine, he noted, was just rotten grapes. This sumptuous dish was actually a dead pig. The brilliant purple of the emperor’s cloak was dyed with shellfish blood, made by miserable slaves.
What Marcus was doing, what we can do, is “stripping things of the legend that encrusts them.” He was using the power of his mind to rip the polish off, to remove the branding, to take things down to their studs. So he could see what was really happening, that he was deceived, puffed up, tempted. Materialism, injustice, our lower urges–these things depend on legend and myth and marketing. They depend on a false picture, an inflated sense.
To act rationally, to know what matters, to do the right thing, to remain self-contained, we need to tear that down. We need to remind ourselves what things are and what they’re made of.
1. Tech Stock Valuations Back to 2021 Highs Based on 12 Month Forward Earnings
Callum Thomas Tick Tock Tech Top: Case in point — tech valuations got back to those crazy 2020/21 pandemic liquidity frenzy levels (and a key difference now is the record pace and magnitude of monetary tightening globally vs easing back then).
Dave Lutz at Jones Trading Twits note that Only 53% of SPX stocks are still trading higher than their 50-day moving averages, which is down from almost 90% just three weeks ago.
4. Before Monday Rally….Energy Returned 10% Over QQQ for Last Month
Everybody wants what feels good. Everyone wants to live a carefree, happy and easy life, to fall in love and have amazing sex and relationships, to look perfect and make money, and be popular and well-respected and admired and a total baller to the point that people part like the Red Sea when you walk into the room.
Everyone would like that—it’s easy to like that.
If I ask you, “What do you want out of life?” and you say something like, “I want to be happy and have a great family and a job I like,” it’s so ubiquitous it doesn’t even mean anything.
A more interesting question—a question that perhaps you’ve never considered before—is what pain do you want in your life? What are you willing to struggle for? Because that seems to be a greater determinant of how our lives turn out.
What pain do you want in your life? What are you willing to struggle for?
Everybody wants to have an amazing job and financial independence—but not everyone wants to suffer through 60-hour work weeks, long commutes, and obnoxious paperwork, to navigate arbitrary corporate hierarchies and the blasé confines of an infinite cubicle hell. People want to be rich without the risk, without the sacrifice, without the delayed gratification necessary to accumulate wealth.1
Everybody wants to have great sex and an awesome relationship—but not everyone is willing to go through the tough conversations, the awkward silences, the hurt feelings, and the emotional psychodrama to get there.
They view pain as an objectively negative thing to be avoided at all costs, whereas reality is much more nuanced. As I cover extensively in my Resilience Course in the Mark Manson Premium Subscription, we are all capable of—and I’d argue responsible for—ascribing meaning to our pain, and this can actually give our life purpose.
But most people don’t realize this. And so they settle. They settle and wonder “What if?” for years and years until the question morphs from “What if?” into “Was that it?” And when the lawyers go home and the alimony check is in the mail they say, “What was that for?” If not for their lowered standards and expectations 20 years prior, then what for?
Happiness requires struggle. The positive is the side effect of handling the negative. You can only avoid negative experiences for so long before they come roaring back to life.2
At the core of all human behavior, our needs are more or less similar. Positive experience is easy to handle. It’s negative experience that we all, by definition, struggle with. Therefore, what we get out of life is not determined by the good feelings we desire, but by what bad feelings we’re willing and able to sustain to get us to those good feelings.
What we get out of life is not determined by the good feelings we desire, but by what bad feelings we’re willing and able to sustain to get us to those good feelings
People want an amazing physique. But you don’t end up with one unless you legitimately appreciate the pain and physical stress that comes with living inside a gym for hour upon hour,3 unless you love calculating and calibrating the food you eat, planning your life out in tiny plate-sized portions.4
People want to start their own business or become financially independent. But you don’t end up a successful entrepreneur unless you find a way to appreciate the risk, the uncertainty, the repeated failures, and work insane hours on something you have no idea whether or not it will be successful.
People want a partner, a spouse. But you don’t end up attracting someone amazing without appreciating the emotional turbulence that comes with weathering rejections, building the sexual tension that never gets released, and staring blankly at a phone that never rings. It’s part of the game of love. You can’t win if you don’t play.
What determines your success isn’t “What do you want to enjoy?” The question is, “What pain do you want to sustain?” The quality of your life is not determined by the quality of your positive experiences, but the quality of your negative experiences. And to get good at dealing with negative experiences is to get good at dealing with life.
To get good at dealing with negative experiences is to get good at dealing with life.
There’s a lot of crappy advice out there that says, “You’ve just got to want it enough!”
Everybody wants something. And everybody wants something enough. They just aren’t aware of what it is they want, or rather, what they want “enough.”
Because if you want the benefits of something in life, you have to also want the costs. If you want the beach body, you have to want the sweat, the soreness, the early mornings, and the hunger pangs. If you want the yacht, you have to also want the late nights, the risky business moves, and the possibility of pissing off one person or ten thousand.
If you find yourself wanting something month after month, year after year, yet nothing happens and you never come any closer to it, then maybe what you actually want is a fantasy, an idealization, an image, a false promise. Maybe what you want isn’t what you want—you just enjoy wanting. Maybe you don’t actually want it at all.
Sometimes I ask people, “How do you choose to suffer?” These people tilt their heads and look at me like I have twelve noses.5
But I ask because that tells me far more about you than your desires and fantasies. Because you have to choose something. You can’t have a pain-free life. It can’t all be roses and unicorns.
And ultimately that’s the hard question that matters. Pleasure is an easy question. And pretty much all of us have similar answers. The more interesting question is the pain.
What is the pain that you want to sustain?
That answer will actually get you somewhere. It’s the question that can change your life. It’s what makes me, me and you, you. It’s what defines and separates us, and ultimately brings us together.
For most of my adolescence and young adulthood, I fantasized about being a musician—a rock star, in particular. Any badass guitar song I heard, I would always close my eyes and envision myself up onstage playing it to the screams of the crowd, people absolutely losing their minds to my sweet finger-noodling.
This fantasy could keep me occupied for hours on end. The fantasizing continued through college, even after I dropped out of music school and stopped playing seriously.
But even then it was never a question of if I’d ever be up playing in front of screaming crowds, but when. I was biding my time before I could invest the proper amount of time and effort into getting out there and making it work. First, I needed to finish school. Then, I needed to make money. Then, I needed to find the time. Then… nothing.
Despite fantasizing about this for over half of my life, the reality never came. And it took me a long time and a lot of negative experiences to finally figure out why: I didn’t actually want it.
I was in love with the result—the image of me onstage, people cheering, me rocking out, pouring my heart into what I’m playing—but I wasn’t in love with the process. And because of that, I failed at it. Repeatedly. Hell, I didn’t even try hard enough to fail at it. I hardly tried at all.
The daily drudgery of practicing, the logistics of finding a group and rehearsing, the pain of finding gigs and actually getting people to show up and give a shit. The broken strings, the blown tube amp, hauling 40 pounds of gear to and from rehearsals with no car.
It’s a mountain of a dream and a mile-high climb to the top. And what took me a long time to discover was that I didn’t like to climb much. I just liked to imagine the top.
Our culture would tell me that I’ve somehow failed myself, that I’m a quitter or a loser. Self-help would say that I either wasn’t courageous enough, determined enough or I didn’t believe in myself enough.6 The entrepreneurial/start-up crowd would tell me that I chickened out on my dream and gave in to my conventional social conditioning.7 I’d be told to do affirmations8 or join a mastermind group or manifest, or something.
But the truth is far less interesting than that: I thought I wanted something, but it turns out I didn’t. End of story.
I wanted the reward and not the struggle. I wanted the result and not the process. I was in love not with the fight, but only the victory.
Who you are is defined by the values you are willing to struggle for. People who enjoy the struggles of a gym are the ones who get in good shape.9 People who enjoy long work weeks and the politics of the corporate ladder are the ones who move up it.10 People who enjoy the stresses and uncertainty of the starving artist life are ultimately the ones who live it and make it.11
This is not a call for willpower or “grit.”12 This is not another admonition of “no pain, no gain.”13
This is the most simple and basic component of life: our struggles determine our successes. So, friend, choose your struggles wisely.
CHARTR The genie is out. When OpenAIlaunched ChatGPTat the end of November last year, the tech world and the Extremely Online community went into something of a meltdown, racing to try the chatbot and sample its hilarious / genuinely insightful responses. The process was simple: put in a prompt — anything from “solve this complex coding problem” to “come up with rap battle verses between a caveman and Shakespeare” — and ChatGPTwould often spit out exactly what you were after.
Back in December, the chatbot was making waves as one of the quickest platforms in history to reach1 million users — hitting the milestone ~15xfaster than Instagramand ~30xquicker than Spotify. Indeed, by the time the new year rolled around, ChatGPT already had 25 million users. Since then, however, even as more details of the bot’s full capabilities and ever-developing skillset have emerged, ChatGPT’s usage has started to temper.
9. Tax Data Reveals Large Flight of High Earners From Big Cities
Economic Innovation Group by Connor O’Brien
Key Findings
The exodus of workers and families from major U.S. cities during the first two years of the pandemic was exceeded by an even larger outflow of income.
Newly-released IRS data shows taxable income (Adjusted Gross Income, or AGI) in large urban counties fell by more than $68 billion between 2020 and 2021 from net migration alone, a dramatic acceleration of pre-pandemic leakage.
Rural counties benefited most from the outflow of earnings from major cities; net growth in AGI from net migration totaled more than 1.5 percent of existing residents’ taxable incomes, the highest of any county type.
Geographically, pandemic growth regions like Florida, East Texas, the Southern Triangle, and broad swathes of the Mountain West saw large inflows of income, coinciding with rapid post-pandemic population growth.
Income flows out of urban areas and towards these growth regions appears to have been driven by upper-income households; in growing counties, in-migrants were on average higher earners than out-migrants, while in shrinking counties, out-migrants earned more than newcomers.
2. QQQ Nasdaq 100 Closes Below 50day Moving Average
3. Apple Historical P/E Ratio, EV/EBITA, P/S
4. Short Sellers Targeting List of Names
Dave Lutz Jones Trading Hedge funds are betting that stocks in some of the market’s hottest sectors are headed for a fall, amid concern over how long the boom in electric vehicles, luxury goods and artificial intelligence will last – Electric-car maker Tesla Inc., Gucci owner Kering and Japanese chipmaker Advantest Corp. were the large-cap stocks with the highest percentage of funds shorting them last month in their respective regions, according to data compiled by Hazeltree. Hazeltree aggregates data on about 12,000 equities globally from about 700 funds.
Jill Disis(Bloomberg) — July’s data left no doubt: China is now clearly dealing with a deflation threat. Consumer and producer prices fell together for the first time since 2020, adding to concerns about the health of the world’s second-largest economy. News that China’s prices are falling may be somewhat jarring, given the inflationary pressures in many other parts of the world. But the unique factors contributing to China’s problems are deep and ingrained. Solving them may not be an easy fix.
Summary. Although experts recommend eight hours of sleep a night, many of us don’t get that. A recent study of leaders across the world found that 42% average six hours of shut-eye or less. Insufficient rest leads to poor judgment, lack of self-control, and impaired creativity….more
How much sleep do you get each night? Most of us know that eight hours is the recommended amount, but with work, family, and social commitments often consuming more than 16 hours of the day, it can seem impossible to make the math work. Perhaps you feel that you operate just fine on four or five hours a night. Maybe you’ve grown accustomed to red-eye flights, time zone changes, and the occasional all-nighter. You might even wear your sleep deprivation like a badge of honor.
If this sounds familiar, you’re not alone. Although the ranks of sleep advocates are no doubt growing—led by the likes of Arianna Huffington and Jeff Bezos—a significant percentage of people, and U.S. executives in particular, don’t seem to be getting the sleep they need. According to the most recent data from the National Health Interview Survey, the proportion of Americans getting no more than six hours a night (the minimum for a good night’s rest for most people) rose from 22% in 1985 to 29% in 2012. An international study conducted in 2017 by the Center for Creative Leadership found that among leaders, the problem is even worse: 42% get six or fewer hours of shut-eye a night.
You probably already have some understanding of the benefits of rest—and the costs of not getting it. Sleep allows us to consolidate and store memories, process emotional experiences, replenish glucose (the molecule that fuels the brain), and clear out beta-amyloid (the waste product that builds up in Alzheimer’s patients and disrupts cognitive activity). By contrast, insufficient sleep and fatigue lead to poor judgment, lack of self-control, and impaired creativity. Moreover, there are lesser-known secondary effects in organizations. My research shows that sleep deprivation doesn’t just hurt individual performance: When managers lose sleep, their employees’ experiences and output are diminished too.
So how can we turn this knowledge into sustained behavior change? A first step for sleep-deprived leaders is to come to terms with just how damaging your fatigue can be—not only to you but also to those who work for you. Next, follow some simple, practical, research-backed advice to ensure that you get better rest, perform to your potential, and bring out the best in the people around you.
Spreading Damage
Historically, scholars have depicted supervision as stable over time—some bosses are just bad, and others aren’t. But recent research indicates that individual behavior can vary dramatically from day to day and week to week—and much of this variance can be explained by the quality of a manager’s sleep. Indeed, studies have found that when leaders show up for work unrested, they are more likely to lose patience with employees, act in abusive ways, and be seen as less charismatic. There is also a greater likelihood that their subordinates will themselves suffer from sleep deprivation—and even behave unethically.
In a recent study Cristiano Guarana and I measured the sleep of 40 managers and their 120 direct reports during the first three months of their assigned time working together, along with the quality of these boss-employee relationships. We found that sleep-deprived leaders were more impatient, irritable, and antagonistic, which resulted in worse relationships. We expected that this effect would diminish over time as people got to know each other, but it did not. Sleep deprivation was just as damaging at the end of the three months as it was at the beginning. However, the leaders were completely unaware of the negative dynamic.
Lorenzo Lucianetti, Devasheesh Bhave, Michael Christian, and I found similar results when we asked 88 leaders and their subordinates to complete daily surveys for two weeks: When bosses slept poorly, they were more likely to exhibit abusive behavior the next day, which resulted in lower levels of engagement among subordinates. When the boss doesn’t feel rested, the whole unit pays a price.
Sleep also affects managers’ ability to inspire and motivate those around them. In a 2016 experiment, Cristiano Guarana, Shazia Nauman, Dejun Tony Kong, and I manipulated the sleep of a sample of students: Some were allowed to get a normal night’s worth, while others were randomly assigned to a sleep-deprived condition in which they were awake about two hours longer. We then asked each participant to give a speech on the role of a leader, recorded those talks, and had third parties evaluate the speakers for charisma. Those who were sleep-deprived received scores 13% lower than those in the control group. Why? Previous research has shown that when leaders evince positive emotion, subordinates feel good and therefore perceive the bosses as charismatic. If we don’t get enough sleep, we’re less likely to feel positive and less able to manage or fake our moods; it’s very difficult to pull ourselves out of an insomnia-induced funk.
When the boss doesn’t feel rested, the whole unit pays a price.
Furthermore, leaders who discount the value of sleep can negatively impact not just emotions but also behaviors on their teams. Lorenzo Lucianetti, Eli Awtrey, Gretchen Spreitzer, and I conducted a series of studies of what we termed “sleep devaluation”—scenarios in which leaders communicate to subordinates that sleep is unimportant. They may do so by setting an example (for instance, boasting about sleeping only four hours or sending work e-mails at 3 am), or they may directly shape employees’ habits by encouraging people to work during typical sleep hours (perhaps criticizing subordinates for not responding to those 3 am e-mails, or praising individuals who regularly work late into the night). In our studies, we found that employees pay close attention to such cues and adjust their own behavior accordingly. Specifically, subordinates of leaders who model and encourage poor sleep habits get about 25 fewer minutes of nightly rest than people whose bosses value sleep, and they report that their slumber is lower in quality.
One additional—perhaps more powerful—finding from this research was that leaders’ devaluation of sleep may also cause followers to behave less ethically. Bosses who systematically eschewed rest—in comparison to other managers—rated their subordinates as less likely to do the right thing. We suspect this wasn’t just a matter of the sleep-deprived leaders’ giving tougher ratings; it’s likely that employees were actually behaving in less moral ways as a result of the workplace environment or their own sleep deprivation. Indeed, in previous studies we’ve shown that lack of sleep is directly linked to lapses in ethics.
Overlooked Solutions
Fortunately, there are solutions to help leaders improve the quality and quantity of their sleep. Many of these are well-known but underutilized. They include sticking to a consistent bedtime and wake-up schedule, avoiding certain substances too close to bedtime (caffeine within seven hours, alcohol within three hours, and nicotine within three or four hours), and exercising (but not right before bed). Additionally, relaxation and mindfulness meditation exercises help lower anxiety, making it easier to drift off to sleep.
A new branch of research is beginning to show how important it is to alter smartphone behavior too. Melatonin is a crucial biochemical involved in the process of falling asleep, and light (especially blue light from screens) suppresses its natural production. In research focused on middle managers, Klodiana Lanaj, Russell Johnson, and I found that time spent using smartphones after 9 pm came at the expense of sleep, which undermined work engagement the next day. The simple advice is to stop looking at your devices at night. If that’s not practical, you might try glasses that filter out blue light. Some researchers have found that these can mitigate the effect on melatonin production, thus helping people fall asleep more easily; I’m now in the very early stages of a study examining how this may improve work outcomes as well.
Savvy leaders are also starting to track their sleep, through either diaries or electronic trackers. But beware: Most sleep trackers have not gone through rigorous validation for accuracy. (Your Fitbit can do many things, but it is not especially good at measuring sleep.) Many phone apps in particular make unsupported claims—for example, that they can track which stage of sleep you’re in. However, some devices, such as ActiGraph monitors, are very accurate and can help you determine whether you’re overestimating your sleep (we often forget about periods of wakefulness in the night) and whether there are patterns you can change. For example, you might find that although you’re in bed for seven hours a night, you’re getting only five hours of sleep, fragmented into small segments. Or perhaps you notice that your bedtime drifts later on the weekend, leading to “social jet lag” on Monday, when you have to return to your earlier waking time. With this information, you can make adjustments, such as taking a relaxing bath before bed in hopes of getting more sustained rest, or hitting the sack earlier on Saturday and Sunday nights.
A nap can speed up cognitive processing, decrease errors, and increase stamina.
Leaders often overlook two other tools. The first is treatment for sleep disorders. By some estimates, up to 30% of Americans experience insomnia, and more than 5% suffer from sleep apnea. A large majority of people with these issues are never diagnosed or treated. If you are overweight, have a thick neck, snore, and spend adequate time in bed at night but still feel tired, you may have sleep apnea. Partners or spouses are often the first to notice the symptoms, but official diagnoses are typically made after a sleep study that measures oxygen levels and brain waves. You might then be prescribed a continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) mask to wear at night; by keeping nasal and throat airways open, these devices greatly help sleep apnea patients.
As for insomnia sufferers, they’re typically aware of the problem but may not know how to fix it. Jared Miller, Sophie Bostock, and I examined an online program that uses cognitive behavioral therapy to combat this disorder. We found that participants who were randomly assigned to the program experienced improved sleep, more self-control, better moods, and higher job satisfaction, and they became more helpful toward colleagues. The treatment cost only a few hundred dollars per participant, indicating a substantial return on investment. I’m currently in the early stages of another study that will measure the effects of this treatment on leader behaviors and follower outcomes, and I expect similarly beneficial effects.
The other overlooked tool for getting more rest is napping. Too often, leaders view nap breaks as time spent loafing instead of working. However, research clearly indicates that dozing for even 20 minutes can lead to meaningful restoration that improves the quality of work. A brief nap can speed up cognitive processing, decrease errors, and increase stamina for sustained attention to difficult tasks later in the day. One study found that as little as eight minutes of sleep during the day was enough to significantly improve memory.
Many cultures outside the United States have embraced naps as a normal and desirable activity. In Japan, inemuri, or napping at work, is typically viewed positively. Midday siestas have long been part of work life in Spain. Now some American leaders are beginning to embrace this form of rest. Tony Hsieh, the CEO of Zappos, is a nap proponent, and organizations such as Google and PriceWaterhouseCoopers have nap pods for employees, understanding that 20 minutes of downtime can make people more effective and productive for many more hours that day.
As a leader, even if you fail to get enough sleep yourself, you should be careful to promote good sleeping behavior. Your employees are watching you for cues about what is important. Avoid bragging about your own lack of sleep, lest you signal to your subordinates that they, too, should deprioritize sleep. If you absolutely must compose an e-mail at 3 am, use a delayed-delivery option so that the message isn’t sent until 8 am. If you must pull an all-nighter on a project, don’t hold that up as exemplary behavior.
For pro-sleep role models, look to CEOs such as Ryan Holmes of Hootsuite (“It’s not worth depriving yourself of sleep for an extended period of time, no matter how pressing things may seem”); Amazon’s Bezos (“Eight hours of sleep makes a big difference for me, and I try hard to make that a priority”); and Huffington, the CEO of Thrive Global, who wrote a whole book on the subject.
It is clear that you can squeeze in more work hours if you sleep less. But remember that the quality of your work—and your leadership—inevitably declines as you do so, often in ways that are invisible to you. As Bezos says, “Making a small number of key decisions well is more important than making a large number of decisions. If you shortchange your sleep, you might get a couple of extra ‘productive’ hours, but that productivity might be an illusion.” Even worse, as my research highlights, you’ll negatively affect your subordinates.
If instead you make sleep a priority, you will be a more successful leader who inspires better work in your employees. Don’t handicap yourself or your team by failing to get enough rest.
A version of this article appeared in the September–October 2018 issue (pp.140–143) of Harvard Business Review.
Christopher M. Barnes is a professor of management at the University of Washington’s Foster School of Business. He worked in the Fatigue Countermeasures branch of the Air Force Research Laboratory before pursuing his PhD in Organizational Behavior at Michigan State University.
Women are closing a gender gap, but it isn’t a good one: They’re catching up to men when it comes to problem drinking.
Women’s drinking, on the rise for the past two decades, jumped during the pandemic as women reported more stress. Although men still drink more alcohol than women and have higher alcohol-related mortality rates, doctors and public health experts say women are narrowing that divide.
Alcohol-related emergency department visits, hospitalizations and deaths are increasing faster for women than for men. And studies suggest that women are more susceptible to alcohol-related liver inflammation, heart disease and certain cancers.
“There used to be a large gender gap in alcohol use and alcohol use disorder between men and women,” says Dawn Sugarman, a research psychologist at McLean Hospital and assistant professor of psychology at Harvard Medical School. “That is shrinking.”
Over the past couple of decades, problem drinking has risen most among 30- and 40-something women, says Aaron White, senior scientific adviser to the director of the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, or NIAAA. Rates of drinking among teen girls has been declining, he says, but go up once women hit their 20s.
Binge drinking among women has gradually lost its social stigma over several generations to the point where it is almost a rite of passage in college. In recent years, a growing culture of mom drinking escalated during the pandemic, as some mothers juggling remote school and work drank more to cope with stress, and the habit stuck, doctors say.
10. What is the secret to happiness?-The Daily Stoic
It’s not an easy question to answer. And it might seem like the Stoics wouldn’t have a good answer either. Because it might seem like they didn’t have much fun, or experience much happiness. After all, they wrote repeatedly about the emptiness of chasing money or celebrity. They reminded themselves that fine wine is just rotten old grapes. But that doesn’t necessarily mean their lives were empty and joyless. By one definition of happiness, in fact, the Stoics were some of the happiest people to ever live.
On a recent episode of The Daily Stoic Podcast, we interviewed Gretchen Rubin, one of the most thought-provoking and influential experts on happiness. They talked about one of the things she learned from her former boss, the Supreme Court’s first female justice, Sandra Day O’Connor. Shortly after Gretchen published The Happiness Project, she asked O’Connor who she had clerked for, what is the secret to happiness? O’Connor replied,
“The secret to happiness is work worth doing.”
Perfect.
The Stoics didn’t seek happiness. They sought purpose. They were of service to others. They worked on art and made scientific breakthroughs and changed people’s lives. They fought for causes. They held public office. They represented clients in court. They dedicated themselves to their children. They did their duty. They did work worth doing. The byproduct of which was happiness, joy, contentment, pride, satisfaction, all of those things.
1. Utilities Not Acting Defensive in Last Week’s Pullback
Utility Index About to Make New Lows as S&P Sold Off
2. U.S. Government Debt
Dorsey Wright However, these persistent deficits, combined with an aging population which is expected to add to Medicare and social security costs, have some forecasting US debt will increase to 200% by 2050. That’s not unheard of – Japan was in a similar situation back in the 1990’s (red color in chart below), and they now have debt to GDP over 250%.
The problem with all that debt is that, just like all of us, the government needs to pay interest to its lenders. Japan has managed to continue deficit spending to support their economy because their interest rates are so low. Luckily, for now, the average interest rate the US government needs to pay on debt is also still pretty low. But, if inflation doesn’t recede, and debt keeps growing, it’s possible net US government interest costs could more than quadruple to 7.2% of GDP by 2052, That would soak up nearly 40% of federal revenues – compared to around 10% today – which would necessitate much higher taxes or much lower government spending. Or both.
3. S&P Revenue vs. Earnings Growth by Sector
4. Bekshire Another Name Right at Previous Highs
5. Fear and Greed Index Update Going into Weak Seasonality
WSJ By Bjorn Lomborg For more than two decades, satellites have recorded fires across the planet’s surface. The data are unequivocal: Since the early 2000s, when 3% of the world’s land caught fire, the area burned annually has trended downward. In 2022, the last year for which there are complete data, the world hit a new record-low of 2.2% burned area.
Over the past few days, college football has undergone a shake-up that further obliterated traditional geographic rivalries, left a once-proud conference on its deathbed, and cemented the formation of a handful of national superconferences—all in the pursuit of TV riches.
The moves reflect the inevitable professionalization of college football, one of the only university athletic products that can command billions of dollars for television broadcast rights.
Here’s what went down:
Oregon and Washington defected from the Pac-12 for the Big Ten, joining their West Coast peers USC and UCLA in the once-Midwestern-focused conference that will soon have 18 teams from coast to coast.
Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah said they would also leave the Pac-12 for the Big 12, a decision Colorado made two weeks ago.
The 108-year-old Pac-12 is teetering on the verge of collapse with just four schools remaining: Stanford, Cal, Oregon State, and Washington State.
If you hate this, blame TV
The Big Ten and Southeastern Conference (SEC) have recently secured mega TV deals that will pay their members handsomely…and the Pac-12 has not. It’s that simple.
The SEC inked a $3 billion deal for 10 years with Disney beginning in 2024, while the Big Ten reached a mammoth agreement with Fox, CBS, and NBC worth up to $7.5 billion over seven years. The Pac-12 has been trying to strike a deal with Apple TV+ to stream its games, but the potential payout for schools was not enough to stop the exodus.
The Big Ten sent $58 million to each of its schools during the 2021–22 fiscal year, according to tax records, and that number will only grow under its new TV deal.
Under the Apple deal, Pac-12 members would receive $30 million…on the high end of the range.
Big picture: “The old question—how long would it take TV money to destroy college football? Maybe we’re here. Maybe we’re here,” the head football coach at Washington State mused last Thursday. And whether or not you agree that conference realignment has “destroyed” college football, it has certainly dismantled the regional distinctiveness of each conference that gave the sport its magic.
From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading SHOW ME THE MONEY– Florida State University is working with JPMorgan Chase to explore how the school’s athletic department could raise capital from institutional funds, such as private equity – PE giant Sixth Street is in advanced talks to lead a possible investment, Sportico Reports. Institutional money has poured into professional sports in recent years, from the NBA and global soccer to F1 and golf, but this would break new ground by entering the multibillion-dollar world of college athletic departments.
The school is considering a structure similar to many of those pro sports investments, where commercial rights are rolled into a new company, the private equity fund invests in that entity, and then recoups its money via future media/sponsorship revenue. That’s how Silver Lake structured its investment into the New Zealand All Blacks rugby team, and how CVC organized its $2.2 billion Spanish soccer deal with LaLiga.
10. Sportswriter Sally Jenkins details what elite athletes can teach the rest of us-Yahoo Finance
Kerry Hannon·Senior Columnist Sally Jenkins’ father, Hall of Fame sports writer Dan Jenkins, once told her: “A lot of people are afraid to win.”
For years, The Washington Post sports columnist didn’t know what he meant until she mentioned the line to her late friend, Pat Summitt, the winner of eight women’s basketball championships at the University of Tennessee.
“Some people don’t want to keep score, because most people are afraid to go all in,” Summit told her. “They’ll have to say, ‘That’s the best I can do.'”
That’s not true of elite athletes, who Jenkins has spent more than three decades following.
She remembers Charles Barkley saying when he was a young all-star NBA player for the Philadelphia 76ers: “I realize I’m never going to be perfect, but as long as you strive to, at least you’re going to get better.”
The Chicago Bulls’ Michael Jordan (23) shows he’s still friends with the Phoenix Suns Charles Barkley as they get set to play Game 6 of the NBA finals in Phoenix, June 20, 1993. (AP Photo/John Swart)
And there’s Tom Brady, who Jenkins said was a faster runner at 42 than at 22 when he came out of college.
“What separates these elite athletes, the Hall of Famers, is that they try to get better every day, not by 20%, but just 1% or 2%,” Jenkins said, quoting Tom House, a well-known football throwing coach.
“The rest of us kind of plateau and stop,” she said. “We get pretty good at something and then we don’t work for the 1% to 2% improvement, but the 1% to 2% improvement over time can be really significant.”
You see a lot of hero worship and a lot of kind of idolatry of athletes. And if you are a sportswriter for long enough, you come to the conclusion that people often admire them for the wrong things. They are beautiful; they do magnificent things, but they’re just as flawed as you or me. And so the nagging question for me for many, many years has been, what’s really exportable from these people? What are we supposed to be really learning from this? Apart from awe.
What can sports teach us about work?
The more important things that they teach are basic resilience in the face of setbacks. The champions that really succeed often weren’t identified as the most talented kid on the field when they were small. My favorite thing in the book might be the fact that 27 members of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Super Bowl winning team were rated two stars or less by talent evaluators in high school. So I think the first and most important thing we should take is that talent is an absolute fractional factor in real success. I won’t say it’s meaningless, but I will say it’s next to meaningless compared to all the other things that athletes and coaches do that make them worth watching and make them great.
Your book is built around the seven fundamentals of great decision-making. Could you give us a snapshot of why those are important in the our work?
Conditioning is not just being in good shape. It is the messaging system between your brain and your body, so it can work more efficiently. Conditioning is really big in decision making because your brain robs your muscles of the energy to function. There’s a million different neurological studies out there that show people’s judgment really changes, and they get more erratic, when they’re gassed.
You have to practice with a purpose. Deliberate practice means detailed work on your weaknesses and then practicing on those weaknesses and making measurable improvement. It’s actually understanding, say, that your left foot is weaker than your right.
Peyton Manning’s feet get very uneven under pressure. And he tended to throw from a less stable position when defensive linemen were coming at him below the knees. And so coaches would hurl sandbags at his feet to try to get his feet set in the proper position. That leads to a good arm throw.
The rest of us tend to run around our backhand. Athletes don’t do that. They make their left hand as strong as their right, and that is a critical separator between them and people who don’t win things, or people who don’t go about their lives as purposefully.
What the really great coaches understand, even so-called disciplinarians, like Pat Summitt or Mike Krzyzewski, is that you actually have to ask people to discipline themselves, and you have to select people who are willing to discipline themselves. The last thing a leader wants to do is waste a whole lot of time trying to persuade someone who’s unwilling to adopt basic standard habits so that you can move on to more interesting work.
One thing Peyton Manning told me was that Tony Dungy had incredibly disciplined teams, but Tony Dungy never raised his voice. And Peyton said that Dungy wasn’t going to have anybody in the room who he had to ask to be on time. You were either interested enough in the endeavor to be on time or you weren’t going to be there.
The Right Call
What’s next?
Candor is the honesty to look at yourself and look at your teammates and talk frankly about what’s going on in your performance or in an organization’s performance. And do it in a way that is diagnostic, but not blaming or accusatory. Blaming doesn’t lead to good outcomes. People can wind up clouding an event with an excuse or rationalization, and you never get at what’s really happening.
Culture is so hard to define, but Steve Kerr was really helpful on that one because he’s built such a great one at Golden State. Golden State Warriors’ culture is a very joyful culture. Kerr basically wanted it to seem to just play like kids play.
The first thing you see when you go to a Warriors practice is you see balls flying all over the place in the gym. And instead of being in these regimented warmup lines and stuff, you see the Warriors are doing trick shots and laughing and horsing around in some ways. There’s music blasting from the speakers. There’s real high energy and a lot of laughter, and that’s one way Kerr aligns everything he’s trying to do with Golden State. He wants them to play very fast and loose basketball, and he understands, as he put it to me, that everything in your building, every vibe in the building has to be bent towards the environment and the feeling that you’re trying to create.
The main thing about culture is that things have to match up. Your statements, your values, your selection of people, the people you bring in – all that stuff has to sort of be bound together by a coherent philosophy.
Okay, let’s hear the last two principles.
Resilience. Nobody succeeds a hundred percent. The best clutch shooters in the NBA don’t even make 45% of their shots. Failure is an essential precondition for success. Athletes and coaches are a bit like engineers or tech guys in the sense that they understand that an interesting failure breeds future success.
It’s your tolerance for setbacks, your tolerance for failure, and then your willingness to attack that failure in a very organized, analytical way and make incremental personal or organizational improvements. It’s failing with purpose.
Finally, intention is like that last magical bit of animation. I mean, athletes aren’t robots. We’ve all had experiences where we watch athletes who almost seem to fly. And it’s not just a physical manifestation, it’s that they love what they do. They’re fully a hundred percent invested in what they do. And when you have that, that’s when things can really elevate. Saying, ‘I’m gonna give everything I have to this. And I may not be the best in the world at it, but I’m going to feel a sense of completion from having given everything I have to it.’
You write about embracing what we do as something we all should do with our work, how so?
Look at these great coaches, like Pat Summitt. She coached for 38 years, Kerry, and she won eight championships. Now, that was a lot of championships. But 30 years, she went home a loser. If it was about winning, she couldn’t have done it. She wouldn’t have been happy. She loved her work more than anyone I’ve ever known. She loved coaching. She loved teaching. She found real meaning and purpose in it, even when she lost.
People who have successful lives and successful professions have purpose and meaning in their life, so that even when they hit a roadblock or they suffer a setback, they know why they’re doing it, and they can feel good about themselves and how they’ve conducted their business.
What is the common thread of all the high performers you have met?
They all care more about the overall endeavor than their own personal status. The happiest I ever saw Michael Phelps was when the USA team won relays. He was plenty happy for himself, but he had a special joy on relay teams. You see that in golf where you see players compete in the Ryder Cup with an intensity of feeling. You see the same thing in tennis too, with the Davis Cup.
What is the one magic ingredient you write about that is not one of your seven principles?
Curiosity. That’s what striving really is. Who am I? What is this? What can I do with it? Can I get better? Can I find a way not to get worse as I age? Striving is good for people.
Kerry Hannon is a Senior Reporter and Columnist at Yahoo Finance. She is a workplace futurist, a career and retirement strategist, and the author of 14 books, including “In Control at 50+: How to Succeed in The New World of Work” and “Never Too Old To Get Rich.” Follow her on Twitter @kerryhannon.
4. Russell 3000 Market Cap Just Short of New Highs
Bespoke Investment Group $10 Trillion Added in Market Cap; 2023’s Best and Worst Through July The US stock market (using the Russell 3,000 as a proxy) has now seen an increase in market cap of roughly $10 trillion from its bear market low last October through the end of July 2023. As shown below, the peak market cap for the US stock market was $51.5 trillion seen on the first day of 2022. From high to low, total US market cap fell $13.7 trillion during last year’s bear, but since then it has risen back up to $47.7 trillion. To get back to new all-time highs, total market cap would need to rise by roughly $3.8 trillion.
5. The Spread of Corporate Bond Yields vs. the Fed Funds Rate has Reached a Low Point
Callum Thomas Chart Storm https://www.chartstorm.info/ Things You Don’t See at the Bottom: The spread of corporate bond yields vs the Fed funds rate has reached a low point… similar to what it did at some of the previous major market peaks. The economic logic is that it reflects Fed tightening, yield curve recession signals, as well as (overly?) relaxed risk cushions on credit.
Ronald E. Riggio Ph.D. Psychological strategies for ensuring happy customers and profitable businesses.
KEY POINTS
Good customer service is critical to success; interactions need to be positive, helpful, and informative.
Selecting and training employees to provide great products and service is key to success.
Realize that providing great products and service taxes staff, so they need to be encouraged and supported.
Secrets? Okay, they’re not so much “secrets,” but I had to get your attention. These are common strategies that business owners, managers, and dedicated employees should implement in order to have happy, repeat customers, profitability, and dedicated, healthy employees—all based on research in industrial-organizational psychology and management.
1. Constant Customer Service Orientation. We have all experienced it, bad customer service, surly employees, rude treatment, or simply being ignored when you need something. Quality of product is certainly important for pleasing customers, but so too is the quality of service. Read any online reviews, and you will see criticism, not about what was received, but concerning how the customer/client was treated.
What to Do? Create a culture of service. Make customer service a priority, by choosing staff members who are customer-focused and helpful, but also by constantly emphasizing the importance of quality service. This means having staff who go the extra mile, and, if service falls short, ensure that it is acknowledged and that the customer/client receives an apology, an explanation, and, if appropriate, compensation.
2. Clear and Constant Communication. I fly a lot, and there are inevitable delays. But the quality of my airline experience is affected by how the delay is managed. Foremost, is that there is clear and constant communication about the reasons for the delay, the expected timeline, and the outcome, along with a sincere apology. Communication is critical in any sort of customer-staff interaction.
What to Do? Keep the customer informed about the process and particularly about anything that is unusual or unexpected (e.g., “Our credit card processor is not working, so I will have to manually record your information and put it in the system later). Tell the client what you are doing and why you are doing it. If the process is complex, give a sort of running commentary of what is happening. Importantly, (and bridging with key no. 1), be pleasant and customer-focused.
3. Training Personnel and Aligning Values. Certainly, it is important to select employees who are competent, and who are customer service oriented, but regular training is also necessary. It is also critical for the organization to make its values clear (e.g., top-quality product/service, and great customer service) and to incorporate those values into the mission statement and regular practices and procedures.
What to Do? Have regular quality “refresher courses” that share best practices for performance. Encourage employees to participate in sharing innovative strategies for improvement, and reward them for it, particularly if the new idea benefits the bottom line. Leaders/managers should frequently mention the importance of the company’s values, and they should be exemplary role models for “living the values/mission.”
4. Measuring Progress and Outcomes. It is impossible to know the impact of efforts toward quality and good customer service unless there is some measurement of outcomes. Objective (meaning unbiased—begging customers to give an undeserved 5-star rating isn’t going to get you true results) assessments are critical. Ask customers for accurate feedback and make it easy for them to give it.
What to Do? Consider a formal customer feedback system that is easy to use, such as a brief, online survey, or written comment card. Managers can periodically check in with customers and ask if the product and service met, or exceeded their expectations, or whether there are any complaints/concerns. Pay attention to reviews on social media, learn from them, and respond (if appropriate) with an apology and a promise to do better.
5. Providing Feedback, Support, and Care for Employees. This could be an entire post (or book) on its own. Employees can’t know when their performance and quality of interactions with customers is good, or falls short, without management providing them with regular, and constructive, feedback.
What to Do? Provide regular feedback/performance reviews, not just the formal once-a-year type, but ongoing performance management. The focus should be on what’s right, what’s falling short, and how to do things better. It is also important for leaders/managers to realize that the customer isn’t right 100 percent of the time. Sometimes, the client/customer is out of line and they are being difficult or abusive to the staff. That’s when it is time to step in and support employees.
It is also important to note that providing great service is an emotionally (and sometimes physically) taxing endeavor. The psychological construct of “emotional labor” suggests that a can-do attitude, and service with a smile, is emotionally taxing and stressful.
Managers and leaders need to realize this and provide support and relief when needed.
Several housing markets in the Northeast had a strong performance in June, according to CoreLogic. Other states? Not so much.
Good news for homeowners in New Jersey — home-price growth in the Garden State in June was the highest in the nation, according to real-estate data company CoreLogic.
Despite having the highest property taxes in the nation, New Jersey ranked first as its homes rose in value by 6.9% in June year-over-year. Nationally, home prices grew 1.6% on the year in June, the CoreLogic Home Price Index said.
Several housing markets in the Northeast gave a strong performance in June, CoreLogic said. New Jersey was followed by New Hampshire and Vermont, which both saw home prices grow by 6.4%. CoreLogic expects home prices nationally to increase to 4.3% by June 2024.
Home prices fell the most in June 2023 as compared to June 2022 in the West, led by Idaho where values fell by 8%. Washington and Montana followed, with home prices falling 5.8% and 5.7% respectively. Homes in California saw their values fall by 2.2% from June.
‘While the continued imbalance between buyers and sellers continues to pressure home prices, June’s annual bump in price growth echoes economic resiliency, a thriving U.S. job market and strong consumer spending.’
— CoreLogic Home Price Index
“While the annual losses reflect last year’s declines, many West Coast markets are expected to see a strong rebound in prices over the next year,” CoreLogic stated.
Homes in California were also some of the most expensive in the nation.
“While the continued imbalance between buyers and sellers continues to pressure home prices, June’s annual bump in price growth echoes economic resiliency, a thriving U.S. job market and strong consumer spending,” Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic, said in a statement.
“And while higher rates are impacting affordability for buyers with loans, almost 4 in 10 sales are all-cash transactions,” she noted.
Not to mention the fact that many baby boomers who own their home “have substantial equity,” he added, “which could be putting pressure on prices in markets where that generation is currently migrating.”
CoreLogic also noted that the top real-estate markets at risk of home-price declines included the Cape Coral-Fort Myers metro, the North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton metro, both in Florida, and the Provo-Orem metro in Utah.
Marketwatch The chart-There’s been a bear market in happiness, if you are to believe this chart in the long-running General Social Survey, from NORC at the University of Chicago. That said, people are still happy, as the happiness scale runs from -100 to +100. Sam Peltzman, a professor emeritus of economics at the University of Chicago, says the U.S. adult population is mainly happy, and of the different factors shaping happiness, “marriage and income are most important followed by race and education and lastly by place, age and gender.”
4. Shortage of Single Homes for Sale….AMH American Homes for Rent +25% Year to Date
AMH 50day thru 200day in late May
5. Blackstone Real Estate Interval Fund Continues to See Withdraw Requests….9 Months Running
BREIT Hit By Ninth Consecutive Month Of Redemptions; Plans Pivot To AI Data-Centers BY TYLER DURDEN ZEROHEDGE
Blackstone has limited investor redemption requests from its $68 billion real estate trust for high-net wealth investors for eight consecutive months while storm clouds continue to gather over commercial real estate markets.
According to a letter obtained by Bloomberg, Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust (BREIT) recorded investor outflows of $3.7 billion in July — the lowest redemption requests since the run on the fund began in November 2022. However, BREIT only returned about $1.3 billion, or approximately 34% of what was requested — as it continues to gate redemption to prevent massive outflows.
“This structure was designed to both prevent a liquidity mismatch and maximize long-term shareholder value.
“A shareholder who began submitting repurchase requests when proration began has received approximately 94% of their money back and the semi-liquid structure is working as intended,” according to the letter.
BREIT has been working through redemption requests for the last eight months. We have provided a detailed account of the panic out of BREIT as CRE markets come under pressure in a high-rate environment:
Bloomberg said BREIT had sold CRE assets to raise capital:
BREIT has sold $12 billion of real estate assets since the beginning of 2022, generating $2.5 billion of profit during its ownership, according to Blackstone. Recent transactions include an $800 million sale of a Texas hotel, and a $2.2 billion deal to offload a self-storage business.
8. TIPS Bond ETF has not Traded Above 200-Week Moving Average Since September 2022
9. Income Needed to be Happy in Your State
10. Mark Cuban says he avoids wasting time at work, and that meetings are the main culprit-Business Insider
In a June conversation, Mark Cuban called out the No. 1 time waster in the office.
Cuban says he will only take meetings and phone calls if there’s “no other way.”
Earlier in his career, Cuban would run standing-only meetings to ensure they ended faster.
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If you’re a believer that most work meetings could be condensed into emails, you’re in very wealthy company.
Billionaire investor Mark Cuban called out meetings and phone calls during a June conversation with author Chris Voss on the streaming platform Fireside. Cuban does his best to avoid meetings and phone calls as he believes they hinder the productivity of the workplace.
“I try to only do meetings if I have to come to a conclusion or there’s no other way — same with phone calls,” Cuban said to Voss. “It kills so much time.”
When he does attend meetings, the “Shark Tank” star said, most get bogged down with small talk and take away from talking through the important points of the agenda. His sentiment toward meetings remains unchanged from the early days of his career when he’d run standing-only meetings.
“It’s amazing how quickly meetings get over with if no one has a chair or someplace to sit,” he said in the interview.
He’s not the only exec who thinks meetings are a waste. Earlier this month, Shopify bosses introduced a plug-in for employees that would track the dollar amount spent during a meeting. According to the company’s COO, it was an attempt to cut down on meetings so workers could “get shit done.”
Now, as an executive, Cuban has more control over his own schedule, and he takes advantage of it. For him, emails are the preferred form of communicating about work.
“I can respond to those in the middle of the night. Or I can respond to those on my schedule as opposed to have to arrange everything around other people,” Cuban said.
Despite his success and wealth, Cuban remains dedicated to continuing to work. In an October 2022 interview, the billionaire said retirement isn’t for him just yet because “he’s too competitive.”
Bloomberg Lu Wang Pro managers who make both bullish and bearish equity wagers last week slashed positions on both sides of their book, also known as de-grossing, according to data compiled by JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s prime brokerage unit. The rush to tweak positions was frantic enough to push total client stock flows to the highest level since the retail-fomented short squeeze in 2021.
Bespoke-Dogs of the Dow for the Dog Days of Summer
With the Dow coming off of a historic winning streak last week, below we check in on performance of the index versus the Dogs of the Dow. The Dogs of a Dow is a stock-picking strategy that invests in the index members with the highest dividend yields at the end of a year holds them through the end of the next year. On a total return basis, the Dow’s recent winning streak has been a benefit to both the overall index and the Dogs alike. That said, the gains to the former have brought the index up near 2022 highs on a total return basis while the Dogs of the Dow has much further to go given the overall weakness of dividend-oriented equities recently.
In the table below, we show the returns of this year’s Dogs of the Dow and all other individual Dow members. The Dogs of the Dow are host to some of the stocks with the worst performance this year like Verizon (VZ) and Chevron (CVX), however, there are also a couple of big winners like Intel (INTC) which has returned nearly 42% YTD or JPMorgan Chase (JPM) which has nearly posted a 20% return. However, the biggest gains in the index have come from non-Dogs. In fact, the largest gains this year have been from those with the lowest or no dividend yields at the end of last year like Boeing (BA), Salesforce (CRM), or Apple (AAPL).
Dave Lutz at Jones Trading Bloomberg reports The Fed’s survey of senior loan officers at 2pm may show the long-anticipated stiffening of lending conditions is finally playing out amid restrictive monetary policy and new capital requirement rules. The shift in the credit cycle may cut inflation-adjusted GDP in the US and Europe by 1%-2% by the end of 2024, Citi said
Torsten Slok, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Partner Apollo Global Management There are a total of 45 million people with student loans, and the average monthly student loan payment is around $200, so resuming student loan payments in October will subtract roughly $9bn from consumer spending every month, or roughly $100bn a year, and this will mainly have an impact on younger households, see chart below.
9. The Median Starter Home Price is 46% Higher than 2019
@Charlie Bilello Example: the median price of a starter home in the US is 46% higher than 2019 levels. The monthly mortgage payment needed to purchase one of these homes has more than doubled over that time period.
10. What is the Function of Worry?
The Daily Stoic One of the most timeless lines in all of the Stoic writings comes from Epictetus, “What upsets people is not things themselves, but their judgements about these things.”
It’s a powerful idea. And it’s made all the more transcendent by the remarkable fact that nearly every other philosophy has come to the exact same conclusion. We recently talked to Sam Harris on the Daily Stoic podcast. While Harris’ work is heavily influenced by Eastern philosophical traditions, on the podcast, Harris talked about one of the overlaps between his work and the Stoics:
With mindfulness, you’re not doing anything but noticing what is happening. Everything—thoughts, sensations—arises by itself. And it’s in that recognition that you see that the problem you thought you needed to solve a moment ago isn’t even there. The problem of your anxiety or of disappointment—these are thought-based delusions. That’s not to say that there aren’t challenging experiences. Things like physical pain don’t magically go away once you learn how to meditate. But so much of our suffering in response to something like physical pain is because of our psychological contraction around it and our anxiety about it and our fear that it won’t go away and our fear of what it means.
The Stoics had this very much in hand—the whole issue of, what is the function of worry? Either you can do something about the problem right now or you can’t. If you can do something about the problem, do whatever that is. And if you can’t, worry doesn’t add anything to your capacity to do anything—it just makes you miserable twice over.
East, west, north, and south—worry is pointless. As Marcus Aurelius writes in Meditations, “Today I escaped from anxiety. Or no, I discarded it, because it was within me, in my own perceptions—not outside.” Remember this the next time you get anxious, the next time you’re stressed or overwhelmed with worry—these are thought-based delusions. I can discard them. I can let it go.
Don’t let these things make you miserable twice over. Change your judgment about these things.
With mortgage rates at 20-year highs, more people are looking to relocate from high-cost coastal cities to places in the South and Southwest, with Las Vegas as the top destination.
Nearly 26% of property search queries on online real estate brokerage Redfin.com are for cities where potential homebuyers don’t live, based on data for the three months ending June 2023.That’s the highest percentage since 2017, when Redfin first started tracking migration data.
Homeownership costs seem to be driving the trend, as the majority of homebuyers are from cities with some of the highest home prices in the country, such as New York or Los Angeles.
Based on an analysis of 100 metro areas, the following 10 cities had the highest net inflow of property searches on Redfin’s website. Net inflow is the number of people looking to move into a city minus the number of people looking to leave.
1. Las Vegas: 5,700
2. Phoenix:5,300
3. Tampa, Florida:5,000
4. Orlando, Florida: 4,900
5. Sacramento, California: 4,800
6. North Port-Sarasota, Florida: 4,700
7. Cape Coral, Florida: 4,100
8. Dallas:4,100
9. Miami: 3,700
10. Houston:3,600
For all cities on this list, the largest number of potential out-of-town homebuyers are from either Los Angeles, Seattle, New York or Chicago, according to the study. This makes sense, as those are some of the cities where the most homebuyers seemingly want to leave.
Here are the 10 metros with the largest net outflow of property searches, which measures the number of search queries interested in leaving a metro area minus the number of search queries about moving to that same city.
1. San Francisco: 28,100
2. New York City: 24,200
3. Los Angeles: 20,900
4. Washington, D.C.: 15,700
5. Chicago: 4,900
6. Boston: 4,400
7. Seattle:3,900
8. Hartford, Connecticut: 3,500
9. Denver: 2,300
10. Detroit: 2,300
The search patterns suggest homebuyers are looking to leave large coastal hubs for cities in low-tax states that have considerably cheaper home prices.
For instance, most out-of-town buyers looking for properties in Las Vegas are from Los Angeles. The median cost of a home in Las Vegas is $412,500 as of June, nearly half the $975,000 median cost for homes in Los Angeles, according to Redfin’s data.
For the purposes of the study, a person browsing Redfin counts as a migrant if they’ve viewed 10 properties in another city over the three months ending June 2023. The net inflow and outflow rankings were compiled based on the total number of migrants.
Contrary to what we’re led to believe, clear thinking is often the result of the position you are in at the time of the decision.
Even a genius looks ordinary if circumstances force them into a bad position.
The best position themselves to win before the game even starts. Tom Brady couldn’t show up on Sunday and perform if he didn’t put in the reps first. By studying film, eating healthy, stretching, and practicing, he puts himself in a position to win. It’s not just sports, the best in business do the same thing.
An underrated element of doing your best is the position you are in when you need to perform.
History is littered with successful people who positioned themselves to win and took advantage of the storm.
You can position yourself to win no matter the circumstances. There is always something you can do to improve your current position.
Eating well, saving money, sleeping, preparing for your next job, taking on more responsibility at work, removing people from your life who drag you down, reading and learning, etc.
When you master your circumstances, every path is a winner. When your circumstances master you, things quickly go from bad to worse.
Over a long enough time horizon, positioning beats predicting.
Zerohedge Blog Total federal interest expenses should rise by approximately $226 billion over the next twelve months to over $1.15 trillion. For context, from the second quarter of 2010 to the end of 2021, when interest rates were near zero, the interest expense rose by $240 billion in aggregate. More stunningly, the interest expense has increased more in the last three years than in the fifty years prior.
10. Forget college admissions — some parents are shelling out up to $4,000 just to get their daughters into sororities
Meanwhile here is the Ukraine Sorority
There’s an admissions coach for everything these days.Kwan Wei Kevin Tan
Jul 25, 2023, 5:17 AM EDT
Some parents are shelling out up to $4,000 to get their daughters into sororities, per The WSJ.
A sorority consultant said admissions are just as competitive as those for top colleges.
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If you thought getting your kid into a top college was going to be your last big admissions challenge, think again.
Some parents are shelling out up to $4,000 just to get their daughters into their dream sororities, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal published Monday.
The Journal spoke to several sorority consultants who offer admissions advice and coaching services to aspiring members. These consultants coach aspiring sorority members on what to wear, how to behave, and how to manage their social media presence.
Stacia Damron, the founder of the sorority-consulting company Hiking in Heels, told The Journal that sorority admissions are just as competitive as those for top colleges.
“My boyfriend went to Stanford, and he said this is more complicated than getting a Stanford M.B.A.,” Damron said.
Damron told The Journal that her fees go up to $4,000 for an on-call service during peak recruitment periods. According to the Hiking in Heels website, as of 2022, a premium package cost $1,495 while an elite membership cost $2,975. Her 2023 rates are not currently available on the site.
Sorority recruitment, also known as a sorority rush, typically starts in the fallsemester, though some college sororities recruit in the springsemester as well. And sorority consultants like Damron have been seeing increased demand from aspiring members.
“The demand for help preparing for sorority recruitment has dramatically increased since 2019,” Damron told Insider.
Damron said there were two key reasons for the increase in demand.
Firstly, sororities have beefed up the selection process during the COVID pandemic, throwing in extra tasks such as recorded video assignments and essay questions to make up for the lack of in-person interaction. This was on top of traditional requirements such as recommendation letters and registration forms, Damron said.
Secondly, parents and their daughters are learning more about the recruitment process and just how competitive it is from TikTok videos.
“The information is more accessible, and potential new members and parents are learning that there’s more to the process and that preparation begins months earlier,” Damron said.
But hiring a consultant isn’t a guarantee that clients will get into their dream sororities. Dani Weatherford, the chief executive of the National Panhellenic Conference, told The Journal that out of the 125,000 sorority applicants last year, 20% to 25% got rejected or withdrew their applications.
“Much like an SAT prep class can’t guarantee a perfect score, there’s no recruitment coach that’s truthfully able to guarantee or promise a bid. The decision ultimately remains with the sororities,” Damron told Insider.
5. Nasdaq 100 Free Cash Flow Yield is the Lowest in 20 Years
Bloomberg by Ryan VlastelicaThe Nasdaq 100 Index closed with a free cash flow yield of 2.41% on Monday, near its lowest level in more than 20 years, and down from a 2022 peak of nearly 4.2%. The drop in this metric comes amid a gain of more than 40% in the tech-heavy benchmark this year.
About a decade ago, Google launched an initiative to determine what makes the perfect team.
“Code-named Project Aristotle—a tribute to Aristotle’s quote, ‘the whole is greater than the sum of its parts,’” according to re:Work, the initiative studied 180 teams company-wide to determine why some succeeded and others floundered.
It wasn’t easy. A data-driven company to its core, Google researchers initially struggled to find connections between the teams that were thriving. Some of the best teams were full of friends who saw one another outside of work; others, The New York Times reported, “were made up of people who were basically strangers away from the conference room.”
Over the course of several years, unexpected findings emerged from Project Aristotle. The best teams didn’t have the smartest people or even the hardest workers—among other characteristics, such as dependability and clear goals, they were teams where members listened to one another, respected each other and felt safe to take risks. They were teams where everyone felt “psychologically safe.” In other words? They were teams where members had a high emotional intelligence.
The importance of emotional intelligence at work
Emotional intelligence, also known as EQ or emotional quotient, is just what it sounds like: the ability to understand and manage your emotions, and the emotions of people around you.
“The simple way to think about emotional intelligence is being smarter with feelings,” Joshua Freedman, co-founder and CEO of the EQ network Six Seconds, explains. Everyone has feelings, of course—emotional intelligence is about accessing and interpreting those feelings. “We can be smarter and say, ‘Alright, let me assess and understand this,’” Freedman says. “‘Let me accurately get this data. And use this data to help me solve problems.’”
In the workplace, a high EQ is more important in some roles than others. Victoria Neal, an HR knowledge adviser with the Society for Human Resource Management, says it’s especially necessary in management and leadership roles. “Who do you want to work for? Do you want to work for a manager that treats you compassionately, who listens to your ideas, values you as a coworker and colleague?” she asks, rhetorically. It’s a no-brainer—of course people prefer to work with someone who cares about them, takes their feelings into account and manages their own emotions rather than resorting to yelling or finger-pointing.
But it’s also important in other interpersonal roles where teamwork, communication and group problem-solving are key. “Essentially, the more relational and emotional complexity a role has, the more you need emotional intelligence,” Freedman says. Positions in sales, for example, require a high level of self-motivation and resilience, and there’s an important relational aspect to the work, since those in sales need to interact and connect with people. Similarly, Freedman says that if you’re managing people remotely, or trying to instigate or support change, those roles require more emotional work and therefore higher EQ.
Many of the issues we may run into in the workplace, both day-to-day and long-term, are, at their core, emotional: motivating ourselves and others, collaborating across boundaries, approaching and solving problems we haven’t solved before, fostering innovation, connecting with customers, etc. “And what we know from research is that… the more of these skills people bring to the workplace, the more effective they are individually, the better teams perform and, particularly for managers, the greater engagement and performance they create in their teams,” Freedman says.
How to determine emotional intelligence during the hiring interview
While these skills can be taught—“we have a lot of evidence that shows that,” Freedman notes—not all organizations may have the resources to take that on. That makes it important to hire employees who already have strong emotional intelligence.
So how do you make finding these workers a key part of your hiring process?
Freedman says it starts with the job description, where you should be thinking about how emotional intelligence fits into your organization, your culture and the specific role. “I think that’s really important in terms of who you’re attracting to begin with,” he says.
Ask behavioral questions
During the interviewing process, Neal recommends asking behavioral interview questions such as, “What do you think makes an ideal coworker?” or “Tell me about a time you were challenged at work, and how you overcame it.” She encourages interviewers to ask tough questions about failure, rejection and conflict—ask about a time a project failed, for example, or when a team member wasn’t doing their part. How did they handle it? Do they own their weaknesses?
“If something bad happens—that’s not really what they’re evaluating somebody on,” Neal says. Instead, you want them to talk about the next step after that: Okay, this went badly, so how did they fix it? “Make it behavioral, make it open-ended and then really delve in there and ask follow-up questions,” she continues.
Assign an EQ assessment
In addition to the interview, Freedman recommends having prospective employees take an EQ assessment. “You absolutely can ask questions about the kind of emotional domain—things like resilience and optimism, and situations you may have found emotionally challenging or stressful, and listen for how candidates respond to that,” Freedman says. “And you’re not going to be as accurate as an assessment.”
Incorporate EQ in your talent strategy and company culture
Freedman also encourages companies to think about emotional intelligence in the whole process of their talent pathway, not just at the interview stage. “If you really want the benefits, selection is a great step—and it should be part of the larger talent strategy,” he says. It’s something to consider across the spectrum of talent at your organization, from who you’re recruiting and how you do your selection all the way up to how you build your culture and assess performance.
Neal agrees: Getting the most out of EQ requires a holistic approach. Yes, it’s great to focus on EQ in new candidates. But if you hire someone with a high EQ who’s then being managed by someone with a lower EQ… well, you can start to see how conflicts might emerge, and you might find yourself interviewing new people for the position you just filled.
She encourages hiring managers to not be dazzled by the technical skills and work experience of a potential employee—or at least, not to be so dazzled by those factors that they ignore the importance of EQ. Because, sure, maybe that candidate is incredible at what they do. But if they’re driving your team away, or they can’t maintain a team or deal with colleagues, you’ll have to contend with financial and cultural costs associated with constantly changing team members and dealing with workplace conflict issues.
“Your leadership needs to guide people; your senior leadership needs to establish the culture within the company,” Neal says. “If the culture isn’t collaborative or inclusive, and you get the opposite… you’re not going to get your best out of people, and people aren’t going to want to stay. That’s where you start getting the revolving door, as a hiring manager.”
Make emotional intelligence part of your core strategy
Luckily, you don’t have to do it all at once. The important thing is that you make a concerted, company-wide, continued effort to emphasize emotional intelligence. “A lot of organizations think, ‘Oh, we should do something on emotional intelligence,’ and they kind of treat it like a checked box,” Freedman says. “If you want the value, really look at the business case for your organization and get aligned on: How is this part of your competitive advantage? How is this part of your value creation?”
“We’re not just saying, ‘This is something we should add into the mix,’” he adds. “This is part of the core strategy of how we protect ourselves, stand out in the marketplace and deliver value to our stakeholders.”
Neal notes that there are roles out there for people who may have a lower emotional intelligence. “Culturally, EQ is really important, but I think there [are] jobs where it is not as critical as, say, leadership roles or team roles,” she says. These positions tend to be more individual or independent; roles where there’s less need to interact with others. Engineering, computer science, product testing, data entry—depending on the specific requirements of the job, all of these fields (and plenty more) can work just fine for employees with a lower EQ.
And if you’re reading this as a candidate and wondering if you can work on your EQ, Freedman says the answer is: “Absolutely.”
“I think taking your own emotional intelligence assessment, really looking at where you are in these capabilities and setting your own growth plan in place, is probably a good idea as you’re thinking about your career progression,” he says. “We see that there’s a pretty strong correlation between emotional intelligence and career level, so if you want to become a senior manager, this is going to be really important stuff.”
1. American Resilience ….We are Creating a Record Number of Businesses
Torsten Slok Apollo About 450,000 new businesses have opened every month since the onset of covid-19, which is 50% higher than in 2019, when the number of new businesses opening every month was 300,000, see the first chart below.
The main sectors with significant growth in the number of firms are retail trade, professional services, and construction, see the second chart. Within the retail sector, online shopping accounted for 70 percent of all applications in 2020.
The bottom line is that the US economy was already the most competitive and dynamic economy in the world, and the level of entrepreneurship and innovation has increased further during the pandemic.
2. Private Equity is Buying a Record Amount of Small Founder Owned Businesses
Top Down Charts ‘Tis the Season to be Volly: Indeed, the seasonal tendency is for higher volatility around this time of the year; climaxing around October. With sentiment increasingly frothy, valuations back to expensive levels, and still murky macro, the path higher may not be as smooth or simple as it seems.
The Wall Street Journal recently reported that NBA stars are now more likely to take home $30 million+ pay packets than CEOs at S&P 500 companies. A recent YouGov survey, however, found that the American public doesn’t think either party is particularly deserving of the money they’re currently netting.
Indeed, pro athletes actually drew level with politicians — senators and representatives take home at least $174,000 a year in compensation — in the rankings for the most overpaid positions in the US, with a whopping 78% of respondents saying the professions are “very or somewhat overpaid”. CEOs can rest easy knowing only 76% of people think the same about them.
Poll positions
The YouGov poll asked 3,000 Americans to rank 30 professions on 3 criteria: the occupations’ impact, the perceived happiness of those working the job, and how overpaid/underpaid they think the vocation is. Interestingly, four of the top five “overpaid” positions also appeared in another unflattering tier, with lawyers, investment bankers, CEOs, and politicians all top occupations that Americans deem to have a “very or somewhat negative impact”.
On the other hand, the opposite end of the pay scale was a completely different story. Indeed, the “most underpaid” profession, farming, was ranked as the occupation with the most positive impact on society. 68% of Americans think farmers are “very or somewhat underpaid” — a matched proportion said the same of restaurant workers.
Go deeper: Explore how all 30 professions perform on the different metrics here.
As we age, we lose people and bodily functions, but we’re happier.
KEY POINTS
Older people are happier than middle-aged and younger people.
Anxiety, depression, and anger decrease with advancing age.
Old people are a reservoir of wisdom and experience and make a valuable contribution to the workforce.
As we age, our time horizons grow shorter and our goals change.
It’s counterintuitive that old people can be happier. As we move closer to death, we become invisible and are considered a drain on the economy.
When I turned 60, all I saw ahead of me was decline. Then I met a man who said, “I’m 82 and this is the best time in my life.” I wondered, What does he know that I needed to learn?
Laura Carstenson studies aging and happiness. She found older people are happier than middle-aged and younger people.1 Many researchers have replicated her findings.
Changing demographics
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, since 2010 the 65-and-older population has increased by 34 percent.2It reported that over the last decade, the growth of the “non-working-age, dependent” population has outpaced the growth of the working-age population.
I object to the characterization of this population as “non-working” and “dependent.” Adults aged 65 and older are twice as likely to be working today compared with 1985. Many of them are making good money.3More than 20 percent of adults over age 65 are either working or looking for work. The Census Bureau paints a picture of a smaller group of young people caring for helpless old people. Politicians have taken note as they threaten to raise the age for Social Security.
Old people are a reservoir ofwisdomand experience. They may work at a slower pace but they are a valuable contribution to the workforce. Old people are a resource that can solve some of the problems of workforce shortage.
An encore job gives life meaning. I’m now 80 years old and I work. Work gives my life meaning. Iwrote two booksafter I turned 65. I amnotdependent! Of course, how mucheducationwe have and what type of work we do shapes our being able to work past the traditionalretirementage.
The paradox of aging
In the 1980s, society considered old age pathological, thatdepression,anxiety, and the loss of cognitive function andmemorywere inevitable consequences of aging.
Americans worship youth and spend billions of dollars annually in the pursuit of youth. We’re told:To avoid a descent into despair, buy this product.
The paradox of aging4is that even though people’s physical health and functions decline in later adulthood, happiness does not. Many studies show that depression, anxietystress, worry, andangeralldecreasewith advancing age.
Recognizing we won’t live forever changes our perspective in positive ways.
Mental health improves with age
Aging is not a disease;dementiais. Unfortunately,dementiaandagingare often used interchangeably. Dementia is not an inevitable consequence of aging. It is ominous to consider 10 percent of the aging population has dementia. But it looks much different when we acknowledge that 90 percent of the elderly are not demented.
Old people process information more slowly. This can frustrate the older person and cause them and their loved ones to worry about dementia. But a longer response time decreases impulsivity; we have more time to think through the problem and give a considered response.
Chronological age is just a number. We have a physical age, a psychological age, and asexualage. They vary from individual to individual and from time to time.
As we age, our time horizons grow shorter and ourgoalschange. Older people direct their cognitive resources to positive information more than to negative.
I learned from that 82-year-old man that we can either measure or experience time. I was always busy, and in America, being busy is a badge of honor. I rushed from appointment to appointment, meeting to meeting.
Then, I recognized the oppressive power of ambition. I began to think,“Do I want to spend the rest of my life the way I’ve lived the first part?”My priorities changed as I moved closer to death.
Time still carries a sense of urgency, but the urgency of time has been transformed. I no longer see time as an endless series of appointments moving from one goal to the next. Now the urgency is to experience every moment and not waste the time that remains.
Perceiving the future
Younger people focus more on goals linked to learning,careerplanning, and new social relationships that may pay off in the future. As a young person, I felt no constraints on my time.
Every day, things happen to remind me of my mortality, and they seem to come at me with increasing frequency. As I grew older, I began to focus myattentionon the positive aspects of my world. My goals shifted to ones that have emotional meaning. I live in the moment and let the future take care of itself.
I focus more on current and emotionally important relationships. I work, but only where and when I choose to. I decided never to sit through aboringlecture and never to go to cocktail parties to network. I would neverwear a necktiebecause I refused to do what others expected of me.
I didn’t worry about dying but only how I would die. I wanted to avoid a lingering death, and I discussed that with my family and my doctor.
Mysocial networkshrank, but I pursued the most important relationships. I began to savor life, ignore trivial matters, appreciate others more, and found it easier to forgive. The more I did this, the happier I felt.
I experienced losses, but I became more comfortable with the sadness. Life became more than a series of painful events. I experience more joy, happiness, and satisfaction.
I no longer believethere’s always tomorrow. I have no promise of a tomorrow, so I’m going to make the best I can of today. I will let the future surprise me; it will unfold as it will.
Start thinking like an old person
Do you value being busy more than an adventure or spending time with your family? If you’re still years away from retirement, don’t wait until you’re 65 to experience the urgency of time. Why spend 30 to 40 years in retirement? Borrow time from our retirement years while you’re young.
Get off the treadmill now. Be happy like old people.
3. Top 10 Weighted Stocks Market Cap vs. Earnings Contribution
Callum Thomas This is a very interesting juxtaposition, and similar to a chart I shared recently, it shows the market cap weighting of the 10 largest stocks… vs the earnings contribution of the same group. Seems they’re not really pulling their weight.
7. Commercial real estate is poised to take a $800 billion hit from remote work-Quartz
Offices need to adjust to the new reality of remote and hybrid work—or risk bigger losses for their cities.Clarisa Diazand Gabriela Riccardi
This week, a new report from the McKinsey Global Institute looks at how remote and hybrid work are changing real estate in the world’s biggest urban centers. Their projection: In nine global cities, remote work is poised to wipe out up to $800 billion of office value by 2030. And that’s just the moderate projection.
Chartr.com Scaling up Prescriptions for Ozempic, which is still technically only approved as a treatment for type 2 diabetes, have soared in recent years as word continues to spread about the drug and its reported pound-shifting properties. Indeed, at the start of 2018, US Ozempic prescriptions weren’t even breaking the 100 mark — by 2020, there were over 100,000 a week. That figure has risen even higher since, making it the most prescribed diabetes drug in America by some distance, with doctors increasingly prescribing Ozempic “off-label” — that is for a different purpose from what the medication is explicitly intended for.
And Ozempic isn’t the only diabetes drug that’s seen a surge in demand. Novo-produced Rybelsushas also soared, as has Mounjaro, which is one of the fastest-rising diabetes treatments, and being tipped by some doctors as the most powerful on the market in terms of weight loss credentials. Developers Eli Lillyare looking to get FDA approval of the drug for that purpose by the end of 2023.
It’s been a little over a month since the “Debt Ceiling” was suspended. What has transpired since? A borrowing binge for the ages, with National Debt increasing by over $1 trillion.
To say that the government is spending money like a “drunken sailor” would be an insult to drunken sailors who at least a) were spending their own money and b) quit when they ran out of funds.
Not so for the US government, which continues to borrow from the future to spend more money today. In June, federal budget deficit rose to $2.25 trillion, its highest level since 17 months.
10. Do Hard Things if You Want an Easy Life-Darius Foroux
The other day my mom told me about a family member who had a flat tire on her bike. This relative doesn’t live an easy life.
She had a doctor’s appointment and when she pulled out her bike to go there, she discovered the flat. She doesn’t have a car. So she ended up walking to the doctor’s office. To make it worse, it also started to rain after a few minutes into her walk.
She barely made it. I thought, “Man, I’m lucky. I have an easy life.” But then I also thought, “I did a lot of hard things to get here.”
I remember the days of not having much. When I was 17, I had a full-time job during the entire summer at a call center. One day I was cycling to work and a massive downpour started about halfway through.
If I stopped to get shelter from the rain, I would’ve been late. I also couldn’t return to get the bus. I had to keep cycling.
Man, I still remember how I felt when I showed up at work, completely SOAKED in water, from my socks to my underwear. I sat down, at 9 AM and started making my calls.
During my breaks, I went to the bathroom and tried to dry my clothes piece by piece with the electric hand dryer. That whole day I sat in my chair with wet clothes, cursing at everything in my mind.
I was livid. I didn’t want a hard life like that.
A hard life versus doing hard things
Looking back, I’m grateful for experiences like that when I was in my teens and early twenties. It taught me that a hard life can be like a black hole that you can’t get out from.
My luck was that after the summer, I went to college. My parents, who never went to college, forced me to study. I really wanted to keep working because I thought that having my own money would make my life easy.
They knew better. Having a salary and nothing else is the road to a hard life. The path to an easier life is to get educated.
Getting educated is hard.
Learning new skills is hard.
Exercising regularly is hard.
Eating healthy is hard.
Sleeping at the same time every day is hard.
Seeing your friends having fun and going out is hard.
But the truth is that these things are only hard during the moment. Because what’s the alternative? I bet you have family members or friends who also have hard lives. What makes your life hard?
You might be doing hard things, but you do it because you don’t want to have a hard life.
Having the freedom to do what you want and being comfortable doesn’t come easy. We must work hard for that privilege every single day. And we will never reach an end state where our lives will always be easy.
It’s something we keep working for. Day in and day out. But it’s all worth it.
From Morningbrew Newsletter…There’s been no shortage of record-high temperatures around the globe recently, and since “space fan” isn’t something NASA is currently working on, other scientists are picking up the slack to cool buildings down.
Some options:
Going underground.Geothermal heat pumps can cool (and heat, because it will get cold again someday) your home by sending water through buried pipes to take advantage of the stable temperature of the ground beneath your backyard. They’ve got big advantages over traditional air conditioning and heating because they uses far less electricity and are cheaper in the long run. They’re typically more expensive upfront, but a 30% tax credit from the Inflation Reduction Act could change that.
The whitest paint in the world. We’re talking paint so white it would share a sandwich with its dog. A team of scientists at Purdue University created a white paint that reflects 98% of sunlight (most white paints only reflect 80%–90%). It won’t be ready for commercial use for at least a year, but it promises to decrease the need for air conditioning inside a building by about 40%.
7. Average Maturity of Junk Bonds has Shrunk to the Lowest on Record
Advisor Perspectives Blog Executives must have hoped interest rates would swiftly return to manageable levels, but that looks increasingly improbable. In the meantime the average maturity of US and European junk bonds has shrunk to the lowest on record; while there isn’t much risky debt maturing this year, the refinancing challenges become more daunting thereafter, and businesses may decide to get ahead of the problem by restructuring debts sooner rather than later.
“You have major maturity walls coming up in 2024, ’25, and ’26,” Moelis & Co. co-founder Navid Mahmoodzadegan told investors last month. “A lot of those companies unfortunately aren’t going to be able to refinance through those maturities. And so I think there’s going to be a lot of not just bankruptcies, but a lot of balance sheet restructuring, recapitalization activity around many different names.”
The Corporate Bankruptcy Wave Will Get Even Uglierby Chris Bryant, 7/11/23
Almost everyone shrinks with old age. Many older adults have more difficulty gaining muscle than they did in their childhood and teenage years. And when it comes to maintaining that muscle, the phrase “use it or lose it” holds weight, says Michelle Gray, a physiologist and professor of exercise at the University of Arkansas.
“I work primarily with older adults who are trying to either build and/or maintain muscle throughout their life span, and really how that happens is you use it or lose it,” Gray says.
But she adds that not all hope is lost. “It really is the neurology, as well as the muscular system and the interactions between the two, that changes,” she says. “There’s a fair amount of evidence that says all of those things are still there and [that] we can retrain them.”
Several factors contribute to involuntary age-related muscle loss. The exact age people start to see muscle mass decline varies, Gray says, but many begin to see noticeable changes in their 30s. Studies suggest that muscle mass decreases by about 3 to 8 percent per decade after age 30 and at higher rates after age 60. Losing that strength may not only be frustrating in keeping up with daily activities but can also have significant health consequences.
“If you look at who’s shrinking, and how much they’re shrinking, it predicts really important stuff, like how long you’re going to live, how vulnerable you are to getting sick and having to be in the hospital, how likely you are to develop problems taking care of yourself,” says Stephanie Studenski, a geriatrician and professor emeritus at the University of Pittsburgh.
CHANGES IN MUSCLE TISSUE AND CELLS
Muscle is a dynamic tissue, Studenski explains. “Your whole life, there’s turnover. We’re growing new muscle and breaking down old muscle all the time,” she says.
There are three main types of muscle tissue: smooth muscle lines the gut wall and organs, except the heart; cardiac muscle is striated and covers the heart; and skeletal muscle, which can be found in the arms and legs, is also striated. Skeletal muscle is often the kind that’s assessed for sarcopenia, a type of muscular atrophy in which age-related loss of muscle and strength is accelerated. Sarcopenia was classified as a disease in 2016. Muscle tissue is made up of long, slim fibers, each one containing a single muscle cell. The cells produce specific proteins—actin and myosin—that cause muscles to contract and relax like rubber bands at different speeds. But as we age, there is a decline in the overall number of muscle cells—along with mitochondria, which are essential for producing and storing energy in muscle. Mutations build up over time in the cells, sometimes causing the production of defunct proteins, which makes those rubber bands overstretched or less snappy, Studenski says.
Faulty muscle proteins and mitochondria, along with some other changes with age, have been linked to the impairment of the connection between muscles and the nervous system, called the neuromuscular junction. This junction between motor nerves and muscle tissue is where brain signals are transmitted for muscle contraction and movement. Issues in communication between nerves and muscles can create weakness and a decline in muscle mass.
Changes in hormone levels are also linked to age-related muscle loss. The gradual decrease in testosterone we experience as we age, for example, can lead to a decrease in the production of muscle proteins. Poor diet and malnutrition also influence muscle loss—generally, appetite and food intake tend to decrease with age.
PHYSICAL ACTIVITY AND EXERCISE
Though natural aging plays a dominant role in sarcopenia, lack of physical activity also contributes to the loss of muscle mass. As people age, they tend to become less active, Gray says. “There are some disease processes that occur [that cause muscle loss], but in a healthy adult who is aging, it really is a decrease in physical activity throughout the life span which is driving that negative change in muscle mass,” she says.
Sedentary or less active lifestyles don’t always lead to muscle loss in older adults, but movement and exercise influence muscle size and strength. Just a short break in muscle use can cause a reduction in muscle mass, even in younger people.
Proper diet and physical activity can combat some age-related muscle loss, Gray says. Maintaining muscle comes down to continued movement. “Doesn’t matter if you garden or if you ride a bicycle like I do or if you go to the gym,” she says. “You can help maintain your muscle mass by continuing to do the things that you’re already doing.”
Research over the decades have shown that resistance training in older adults can help to increase muscle mass. Several types of resistance training and exercises can help older adults, but Gray recommends high-velocity resistance-training programs. High-velocity resistance training targets muscle power (lifting weight quickly) in addition to strength (lifting a heavier weight). Typically, high-velocity training is practiced among athletes, such as football players, but Gray says basic exercises, such as power chair stands, leg lifts and triceps extensions, can also help older adults perform daily life activities.
“I’m not saying that our older adults need to be linebackers. But think about walking very quickly. Once in a while, I catch my foot on the tile going down the hallway, and I stumble,” she says. “I do kind of trip, but I don’t fall. The reason I don’t fall is twofold: I’m fast enough to be able to get my foot out in front of me, and I’m strong enough to be able to hold my own body weight.” If one of those two things is lost, you’ll fall, she says.
Muscle loss is a common contributor to severe falls and accidents that lead to injury or physical disability in older adults. Low muscle mass from sarcopenia can impact how well individuals can cope with cancer treatment, surgeries and heart and lung problems, Studenski says. It’s why understanding the causes of muscle loss and keeping up with regular activity is important as we age, Gray says. Remember, bulk isn’t everything, she adds. Even if people don’t notice muscle mass gains through resistance training at first, “you actually get stronger long before your muscles get bigger,” Studenski says. “That exercise is doing something to the wiring to the nervous system connection to the muscle.”
Gray and Studenski say that focusing on reinforcing that “wiring” is more important than muscle size. The foundation is key to improving basic physical functions people need to take care of themselves independently, Gray says.
“Even if an older adult who I have trained doesn’t improve muscle mass, but they’re able to walk faster, climb stairs faster, get in and out of the car easier, go on hikes with their grandkids, they have an increase in quality of life,” Gray says. “That part is the most important to me.”
Marketwatch – The chart plots the HSNSI over about three months of U.S. market trading days. The orange line reflects sentiment in the weeks leading up to the top of the internet bubble, while the gray line reflects sentiment over the weeks prior to now. By Mark Hulbert
Blackrock Q1 earnings growth was flat to slightly negative, Refinitiv and Factset data show. That masks significant divergence: We see a common denominator between what’s driving market performance this year and earnings – the artificial intelligence (AI) buzz. S&P 500 earnings forecasts for the next 12 months have risen in recent months (dark orange line in the chart) along with the market rally driven by tech firms with the largest market capitalization. Stripping out those mega-cap tech stocks, forecasts are flat this year (yellow line). 2023 consensus estimates have been cut but remain well above our expectation. We expect Q2 data will be similar to Q1 as the reporting season kicks off this week, with a contraction hitting in the second half of 2023.
4. Chinese Banks Price to Book 20 Year Move Downwards
The Bloomberg Intelligence gauge of Chinese bank stocks is trading at 0.27 times book value, just a whisker away from late October’s record low. That compares with 0.9 times for an index of global peers. The China gauge was little changed on Tuesday after registering mild gains early in the trading session.
At least 7,500 pedestrians died last year in America, the highest figure recorded for more than 40 years, according to the latest data from the GHSA. Although only a preliminary result — with data so far collated from 49 states — the numbers confirm that the trend of rising pedestrian fatalities has yet to stop. Indeed, fatalities are up more than 80% compared with the safest year on record, 2009, when ~4,100 pedestrians lost their lives.
Why are pedestrians at risk? Federal reports identify a few factors, including more dangerous driving during the pandemic as well as a lack of awareness and enforcement of laws that are intended to keep pedestrians safe. One author, Angie Schmitt, who explores the phenomenon in a recent book, also blames the rise in larger, heavier vehicles, as well as a generally aging population — who can be more vulnerable to accidents — for the increase in pedestrian fatalities.
Town planners have also been in the firing line. New lanes of traffic are often added to ease congestion, but that ends up limiting space for pedestrians. One traffic engineer blames the rise of “stroads”. The word refers to those that are some combination of “streets” — lower speed avenues where people can shop, dine and walk — and “roads” — which are designed to get cars from A to B quickly and efficiently. Places where the two are combined, without proper infrastructure like crosswalks and lighting, are reportedly responsible for a majority of the fatalities. Www.chartr.com
9. Average Credit Card Interest Hits Record High 22.2%
10. Surprising Solutions for Overthinking-Psychology
Quick, practical solutions for people who self-sabotage by overthinking.
If you think in-depth, you probably find that your tendency to overthink is both a strength and a weakness.
You may desire to retain the benefits of thoughtfulness while eliminating the self-defeating aspects of overthinking.
Attempt one of these three techniques to achieve that. Choose whichever strategy naturally appeals to you.
1. Execute once, then optimize.
Try taking this approach: Whenever you do anything for the first time, don’t try to optimize it. Instead, adopt the approach that you will execute once, with basic thinking, then optimize your approach the second and subsequent times you do whatever it is.
For example, I recently decided to buy a choline supplement. I got bogged down in factors like which brand to buy, which dose, which form, where to buy it from, and when. By employing the execute once approach, I selected an acceptable option, aware that I could obsess about the best choice during my next purchase.
The benefits? You’ll make quicker decisions, and probably learn more through your experience than from delaying.
2. Put your thoughts in a suitcase.
Anxiety tries to be helpful by not allowing us to forget about potential threats. It nags us by knock, knock, knocking to remind us of our worries and insecurities.
For example, filling out child development questionnaires on my baby’s milestones was stressing me out. I wanted to tell the pediatrician I didn’t want to do them but was worried she would think I was being neglectful. In reality, I’m hypervigilant about milestones; I didn’t need the questionnaires to make me even more so.
If you try to stop having a thought, anxiety tends to just get louder. However, what can sometimes work is imagining putting that thought aside somewhere safe where you won’t forget about it. The imagery I like is to imagine putting my worries in a suitcase, and then carrying it but not interacting with it.
This technique can create sufficient psychological distance from thoughts, enabling me to make more skillful choices in my actions. In this case, there was no reason to expect the pediatrician, who has always been supportive, would think I was being neglectful—and in fact, she reacted supportively again when I broached this topic.
3. Reflect on the benefits of both impulsive and well-thought-out decisions.
Remember I said at the outset that overthinking is both a strength and a weakness? People who overthink tend to be very willing to engage in meta-cognition, that is, thinking about their thinking. You can use that to your advantage here.
Try thinking of examples of good decisions you and others have made. What actions have led to awesome outcomes for you and other people you know?
Next, reflect on whether these were always well-thought-out decisions. In Stress-Free Productivity, I wrote about how some of my best decisions weren’t very well thought through. For example, I’ve put less research into house purchases than into some minor decisions, and yet these house purchases have turned out to be some of my best decisions. I also put relatively minimal thought into choosing a Ph.D. advisor, and yet that worked out wonderfully.
Sometimes good decisions are the result of exhaustive research and accurate perceptions, but not always. Other factors, like serendipity, or meeting the right person at the right time, can be influential too.
When you see this diverse pattern, it can help free you up. Overthinking is not the sole path to success. Engaging in random conversations, acting on instinct or impulse, or exploring topics that trigger your curiosity, even when you should be focused elsewhere, can also yield positive outcomes.
Sometimes it’s enough to recognize that you currently don’t overthink every decision, and that can work out fine, and even well. You can begin to see yourself as someone who sometimes overthinks, but not always.
It’s important not to be ashamed of overthinking. I’m being genuine when I say that it’s both an important strength and a frustrating weakness. Acknowledge the benefits of thinking deeply, but also master skills to dial it back when that is advantageous. This will give you maximum flexibility, lower stress, and the best results.
How did this article change your view of overthinking? What strategy are you excited to try?
9. Business Insider The restart of student loan payments is going to pressure the strong US consumer, as 34% of borrowers say they’ll be unable to make payments
Student loan borrowers and advocates gather for the People’s Rally To Cancel Student Debt During The Supreme Court Hearings On Student Debt Relief on February 28, 2023 in Washington, DC. Jemal Countess/Getty Images for People’s
The upcoming restart in student loan payments is set to weaken the US consumer, according to Morgan Stanley.
The bank conducted a survey of about 2,000 consumers and found some startling insights.
A whopping 34% of survey respondents said they will not be able to make the payments at all.
The upcoming restart of student loan payments could begin to weigh down a US consumer that has been remarkably resilient over the past year and a half.
According to a recent survey of about 2,000 consumers by Morgan Stanley, concerns over upcoming debt and mortgage payments has soared to the highest level since the survey began.
Part of that surge is due to this October’s restart of student loan payments, which have been paused since the start of the pandemic in March 2020. The average payment is between $300 and $400, based on various estimates.
“Only 29% of consumers who have federal student loans are confident they will have enough money to start making payments without adjusting spending in other areas,” Morgan Stanley said.
Meanwhile, 37% of respondents said they will need to cut their spending in other areas to make the student loan payments, while a whopping 34% of respondents said they will not be able to make the payments at all. In this case, the restart of payments will negatively impact low-income households the most, according to the survey.
Consumers’ concerns about the impact of the imminent restart of student loan payments spilled over into other their areas of their finances.
Morgan Stanley said 31% of consumers were worried about their ability to repay debts and 27% to pay rent or mortgage, with both metrics hitting all time highs.
As a segment of consumers start to feel increased pressures heading into the fall when student loan payments restart, discretionary spending categories could see the biggest decline if consumers need to tighten their belts, according to the note.
The discretionary categories with the most strongly negative net spending intentions were consumer electronics, toys, home appliances, food away from home, and leisure/entertainment.
“Overall, the majority of consumers surveyed (61%) continue to say they are likely to cut back on spending over the next six months,” Morgan Stanley said.
Most of our lives are filled with “or” decisions. You can have this or that. You can save money for the big party or you can go out for lunch. You can have exactly one thing for dessert–cake or fruit.
But the war for our attention has given us more than a million things to watch on YouTube, another million songs to listen to on Qobuz, and unlimited bingeing (which didn’t even use to be a word) on dozens of streaming channels.
No or. Simply and.
This means that choices have fewer consequences. It means that time counts for less, it simply fades away. And it turns the sharp relief of choice into the borderless fatigue of ‘whatever’.
Even when it’s possible to avoid a choice, it may make sense to make one.
1. Investors Load Up on Bullish Bets at End of June
Dave Lutz Jones Trading THE FLOW SHOW– Investors piled into bullish bets on US stock futures toward the end of June, leaving positioning looking “very extended” and raising the risk of a pullback, Citigroup Inc. strategists said. New longs of about $7.1 billion were added to S&P 500 futures last week, and investors are sitting on “moderately large profits,” according to a note from the bank dated July 3.
2. 90-DAY Absolute Return Spreads in Stocks
KAILASH CONCEPTS -The chart below shows the 90-day performance of the following six groups of stocks, from left to right:
The largest 100 stocks in the Nasdaq that outperformed the index rose 31.6% in the last 90 days
The 100 largest stocks in the Nasdaq were up 16.5% over the last 90 days
The Russell 1000 growth index rose 10.3% over the last 90 days
The Nasdaq 100’s largest stocks that underperformed the index rose only 4.3% in the last 90 days
The S&P 500 rose 3.7% over the last 90 days
The Russell 1000 value index fell -2.8% over the last 90 days
This morning we have published our summer chart book entitled “If a recession was 6 months away, would markets & data tell you?” (link here). Henry and I will be doing a webinar on it at 2pm London time (9am ET) on Thursday July 13th. You can register Here to watch.
To help answer the question posed, the core of the chart book looks at how various assets and data perform leading up to previous US recessions through history, and compares that to what’s happened over the last couple of years. DB’s house view is for a US recession starting in Q4 2023, that could potentially get pushed back into Q1 2024. So these charts assume we’re 6 months away from a recession, and benchmarks where we are today against that point in previous cycles.
Today’s CoTD looks at equities in this framework. As you can see, the S&P 500 has on average performed very well from 2 years out up until the year before a US recession. However in the 12 months prior it flatlines (underperforming the long-term trend) before starting to fall 1-2 months before the recession. So you don’t get falls until the downturn is within touching distance but you do get sideways markets a year out.
This cycle is quite different at the moment. The S&P 500 was very weak “2 years out” for most of that year and then very strong over the last 6-9 months. So if you just look at this year there is absolutely no signal from equities that a recession is coming. However two caveats. Firstly if we did get a recession by year-end its likely at this stage that the 2-year lead-up to it would be the weakest equity performance in this post-WWII sample, so evidence of market concern in the lead-up as the rate environment completely changed. The second caveat is that as slide 9 in the pack shows, the equal weight S&P 500 has been trading more sideways over the last year, and much more typical of what you would see if a recession was now 6 months out. So it depends on your view of whether those handful of mega-cap tech stocks can influence the macro outlook.
4. Mid and Small-Cap Participated in June
JP Morgan Private Wealth.
5. Interest Costs are Projected to Eat Up 35% of Federal Revenue in the Future
10. Democracy Still Winning-Scott Galloway No Mercy No Malice Blog
The Good News-Over the long term, democracy is steadily beating autocracy. A hundred years ago, for every five autocracies there was one democracy. Today, democracy is the most popular form of governance.
1. Happy 4th of July….God Bless American Entreprenuers and their Employees
2. Two Charts that Sum Up 2023 Market from Callum Thomas….Technicals vs. Fundamentals
Technical Check: This one’s interesting because not only did we end up clearing the lower resistance line, and then go on to break the upper line, but now in fact its gone on to retest that breakout and even chalked up a new high. So again, just on technicals, without knowing anything else, that looks bullish.
What About the Rest of Tech? It really is just a case of big tech carrying the market, if we look at the percentage of Nasdaq stocks with negative earnings, it has just reached a new all-time high. If you argue that it is a fundamental driven rally, it ain’t showing up in the numbers (at least not yet?).
3. Summary of Historical Top 10 Stocks Contribution to Returns
Marketwatch As an aside, Kostin(Goldman) and the team address the whole narrow market issue, saying that in any given year, returns have been concentrated on a group of outperformers. Observe the below chart: “Excluding the top 10 contributors in each year, the S&P 500 would have delivered an 8% average annual return since 1990 (vs. 12% for the full index),” they said. The top 10 contributors account for roughly 12 percentage points of the S&P 500’s 15% year-to-date return.
4. High Yield Spreads and Stock Market Performance
Dorsey Wright Of course, the economy is not our primary focus, but there is a strong relationship between the economy and US equities, so we wanted to see what high yield spreads might be able to tell us about stock performance. To answer that question, we looked at the quarterly change of the CBUS 10 Year Spread (CBUS10YRSPREAD), which measures the spread between US Treasuries and high yield corporate bonds, for each quarter since Q2 1987 and compared it to the quarterly returns of the S&P 500 (SPX). What we found is that SPX performs significantly better in quarters when high yield spreads are narrowing, and that the magnitude of the change is also significant as SPX performed better in quarters when spreads narrowed significantly and worse when they widened by a large amount. The results are shown in the table below.
Lurking Beneath Home Prices: Hidden Costs Insurance, taxes, maintenance and utility costs vary by region, driving up the true cost of homeownership.
Frustrated home hunters have watched U.S. home prices surge from a median of $327,100 in the fourth quarter of 2019 to $436,800 in the first quarter of 2023. With the focus on rapidly rising prices, it’s easy to forget the “hidden” costs of homeownership, including property taxes, homeowner’s insurance, utility payments and maintenance.
According to a recent Zillow study of housing costs in the first quarter of 2023, the median amount of these auxiliary expenses in 39 large U.S. metro areas was $14,155 a year. Among those metros (where sufficient data was available), San Francisco had the highest annual hidden costs (a median of $22,791), while Las Vegas had the lowest ($9,886).
Overall, maintenance was found to require the greatest median outlay ($6,413 a year), followed by utilities ($3,216), property taxes ($2,827) and homeowner’s insurance ($1,699). Taxes varied the most, from an annual median of $9,145 in New York City to just $1,055 in Pittsburgh.
To build the list, researchers used each metro’s median real estate tax and home value, as drawn from the Zillow Home Value Index. Insurance costs were calculated at 0.5 percent of value. Utility costs were derived from 2022 state averages, while phone bills and streaming-service costs were sourced from Forbes reporting. Zillow collaborated with Thumbtack, a site connecting contractors with homeowners, to determine local costs of maintenance and essential repairs, such as fixing appliances, house cleaning (including carpets, chimneys, gutters, grout and windows), lawn care, roof maintenance and yard work, among others.
A few gems from my remarkable conversation with Dr. Julie Gurner:
Victim or survivor mindset
“I think that there are two ways of looking at things that have happened to you. You can be a victim or you can be a survivor. Those are two very different cognitive positions. You can’t control what happens to you in either circumstance, but one is very powerful. You have overcome. One is you have had something happen to you and you are under that thing for quite some period of time. For me, if I hear someone and I hear that helplessness, one is that I want to reframe that experience. I want to tell a different story. I want them to tell a different narrative to themselves. I want them to rewrite that. In some ways, you want them to rewrite that narrative to survivorship and overcoming and what it took. You ask the right questions to get them to see that their own throughway in that case is based on their strength and ability. You want them to see those things rather than seeing the helplessness and powerlessness.”
Moving forward
“When people are telling me that “I’m doing this because of my childhood” or “I’m doing this because of this,” I think you’re giving up some amount of power. You’re giving up a lot of power to something outside of yourself, and also how you’re interpreting that event is not useful to you. There may be a lot of truth to the terrible things that have happened, but those terrible things—you have to shut the door at some point and say, “I am my own man or woman, and I move forward. … if you are somebody who uses other events as a reason to self-destruct, you’re ceding power… We see that even in companies—“I’m doing this because so-and-so made me angry. I’m doing this because…”—and you end up making some poor decisions and ceding power because of someone else. You’re willing to make a poor decision. You’re willing to give up. Sometimes people are willing to give up their entire future dreams because of X, Y, and Z, and it’s a tragedy. You want people to really understand the power they have to create their own lives at some point, and that creation is not given to anyone else but you.”
“It’s one thing to create. The other is you have to choose. ‘What are we going to do, and what are we not going to do?’ This is a gigantic aspect of show-business survival. It’s kind of unseen, what’s picked and what is discarded, but mastering that is how you stay alive.”
— Seinfeld
Tiny Thought
Your life is designed to get the results you are getting right now.
For the trajectory to change, the approach must change.
4. High Net Worth Stashing Money in Cash at Higher Rate
Marketwatch Here’s a breakdown of the numbers: HNWI individuals stored 34% of their wealth in cash and cash equivalents in 2022, up 10 percentage points from 24% during the prior year, according to Capgemini’s annual wealth report, which was released this month. It’s also 20 percentage points lower than the 14% stored in cash and cash equivalents in 2006, a couple of years before the Great Recession. What’s more, cash is expected to remain high — along with interest rates. “We’ve never seen this before — banks are sitting on tons of cash, sitting idle, waiting for the right opportunity,” Elias Ghanem, global head of Capgemini Research Institute for financial services, told MarketWatch. “The amount of money held in cash has never been so high, and the jump year-over-year has never been so high. They’re putting their money into short-term cash allocation, checking accounts, savings accounts, and CDs.”
Sam Zell was a bit of a rascal. In 2007, when the legendary investor agreed to sell his Equity Office REIT to Blackstone, he was not allowed to solicit competing bids. But as Zell, who recently passed away, recounted in Am I Being Too Subtle?, he “sure as hell wasn’t going to discourage one if it was out there.”
So, he emailed an old buddy, real estate magnate Steve Roth of Vornado, who “had been circling around the idea of a purchase for some time.” Zell didn’t ask for a bid. He just shared a little poem:
Dear Stevie: Roses are red Violets are blue I heard a rumor Is it true? Love and kisses, Sam
Cheeky. After some back and forth, Zell happily sold to Blackstone. Just at a higher price. Anecdotes like this one make his story endearing. Zell got rich, walked his own path, and had fun.
People often ask me, “When are you going to retire?” And I answer, “Retire from what?” I’ve never worked a day in my life.
Zell struck me as an archetype for a capital cycle investor. While he’s best known for his work in real estate, Zell was much more flexible and truly a ‘professional opportunist.’
I am opportunistic. Sometimes I am a buyer, sometimes a seller. Sometimes I’m an equity investor, and sometimes I focus on debt. Often both. I never let my affinity for any one industry or my love of doing deals dictate my actions.
Keeping it simple.
Zell was a contrarian (“conventional wisdom is nothing but a reference point”) and keen observer of cycles. And he liked to keep it simple.
When I took Econ 101 at the University of Michigan, I walked into the first class, and written on the blackboard was “supply and demand.” I have to be honest with you, I’m not sure that there was ever anything else in Econ 101 that I learned that was relevant. If you understand and are focused on how supply and demand affects pricing, how it affects decision-making, how it affects risk — it’s the governing principle of everything, but it’s also simple.
His journey started with acquiring and developing apartment buildings in smaller markets, primarily college towns, where he encountered less competition and saw high returns. When he observed signs of a major construction and lending boom, he sold his holdings and waited for the market to turn before scooping up distressed properties.
He described many of his bets as ‘micro in the macro,’ individual properties or companies within a thematic insight. Zell took advantage of the bust in junk bonds with the same philosophy that led him to trailer parks and companies with large tax loss carryforwards.
I stay true to the fundamental truths: the laws of supply and demand; liquidity equals value; limited competition; long-term relationships.
We believed the real money in real estate came from borrowing long-term, fixed-rate debt in an inflationary scenario that ultimately depreciated the value of the loan and increased the position of the borrower.
His success rested on a combination of thematic insights, timing, and an ability to execute. Labeling him merely a contrarian misses the point. To paraphrase Seinfeld, anyone can see the opportunity. What counts is the ability to execut
The successful contrarian has to:
Observe the playing field and understand what expectations are priced in;
Develop a variant perception when price diverges substantially from value;
Have the courage to diverge from herd (miss out on near-term opportunities, possibly shut down lines of business);
Create conditions that allow her to diverge from the herd (sufficient cash flow, liquidity reserves);
Act during a limited window of opportunity; be able to source deals, raise capital under adverse conditions, and turn around underperforming assets.
Zell acquired his moniker ‘grave dancer’ after writing about the downturn in real estate. But really what he did throughout his career was to dance with market cycles, the ebb and flow of liquidity and opportunity. Zell was an astute observer of markets, but equally important was his ability to build lasting partnerships and persuasiveness.
Grave dancing involves confidence, optimism, conviction, and no small amount of courage. All the opportunity in the world means nothing if you don’t actually pull the trigger.
So, what worked for Zell?
Discipline (“suffering from knowing the numbers”).
Keen observer of change.
Speed of execution.
Closing deals by solving problems.
Turning being an outsider into an advantage.
In addition, we can observe many of the markers in From Predators to Icons in his story, including a family business, early sales experiences, networks of mentors and allies, a strong education, and even family money.
The remainder of this post and the opportunity to reflect, share, and discuss in the comments are reserved for the community of subscribers. If you would like to support my work and join the conversation, consider subscribing.
Dave Lutz Jones Trading Traders are piling into wagers that would profit if that occurred. More call options tied to the VIX have changed hands on an average day in June than in any other month on record, according to WSJ – Among the most actively traded options tied to the VIX in recent sessions have been those tied to the gauge jumping to as high as 47.5 or 30, a sign that some traders are positioning for more tumult later this year.
2. Nasdaq 1% Days
Dorsey Wright Another positive sign can be seen by breaking down the count of “extreme” days so far this year by the direction of the move. By random happenstance, the breakdown of positive to negative 1% days in 2023 directly follows the breakdown of the days in Q1 and Q2; there have been 30 positive 1% days and 19 negative 1% days. Said another way, 25% of the trading days so far this year have seen NDX move at least 1% higher, while 15.83% have seen it move at least 1% lower. That equates to a 9.17% spread between the percentage of positive days and the percentage of negative days, which is the most extensive spread favoring positive days since 2009. Only two other years have seen a larger spread, which occurred in 1998 (9.92%) and 1999 (11.90%).
The important point with this spread data is that we are seeing significantly more sharp moves higher than sharp moves lower this year, which has historically only occurred in two market environments: the formation of the dot-com bubble in the late 1990s and the bear market exit in 2009. The current market environment has been attributed to both of those timeframes. Some view the current AI-induced mania as the beginning of another bubble. It is worth pointing out that the overall percentage of 1% days experienced by the NDX would not support this theory in the same way that we saw in the late 1990s. At that time, the NDX saw the percentage of volatile days continuously elevating from 58% in 1997 to sitting north of 70% from 2000 through 2002. So, while we saw significantly more positive 1% days than negative 1% days in the final two years of the 20th century, the overall level of volatility was continuing to rise as well. Fast forwarding to the current market environment, we are faced with a very different picture. Overall volatility has come down sharply over the past few months, but the days that have been “extreme” have seen consistent movement higher.
9. Magic Mushrooms. LSD. Ketamine. The Drugs That Power Silicon Valley
Entrepreneurs including Elon Musk and Sergey Brin are part of a drug movement that proponents hope will expand minds, enhance lives and produce business breakthroughs
Elon Musk takes ketamine. Sergey Brin sometimes enjoys magic mushrooms. Executives at venture-capital firm Founders Fund, known for its investments in SpaceX and Facebook, have thrown parties that include psychedelics.
Routine drug use has moved from an after-hours activity squarely into corporate culture, leaving boards and business leaders to wrestle with their responsibilities for a workforce that frequently uses. At the vanguard are tech executives and employees who see psychedelics and similar substances, among them psilocybin, ketamine and LSD, as gateways to business breakthroughs.
“There are millions of people microdosing psychedelics right now,” said Karl Goldfield, a former sales and marketing consultant in San Francisco who informally counsels friends and colleagues across the tech world on calibrating the right small dose for maximum mindfulness. It is “the fastest path to opening your mind up and clearly seeing for yourself what’s going on,” said Goldfield.
Goldfield doesn’t have a medical degree and said he learned to dose through experience. He said the number of questions he gets about how to microdose has grown dramatically in recent months.
The account of Musk’s drug use comes from people who witnessed him use ketamine and others with direct knowledge of his use. Details about Brin’s drug use and the Founders Fund parties come from people familiar with them.
Musk, his attorney and a top adviser didn’t respond to requests for comment. A spokeswoman for Brin, the co-founder of Google, didn’t respond to requests for comment.
The movement isn’t a medical experiment or a related investment opportunity, but a practice that has become for many a routine part of doing business. It comes with risks of dependence and abuse. Most of the drugs are illegal. Before he was killed in April in San Francisco, Bob Lee, the founder of CashApp, was part of an underground party scene known as “the Lifestyle,” where the use of psychedelics was common. Lee had ingested drugs including ketamine before his death, an autopsy showed.
Silicon Valley has long had a tolerance toward drug use—many companies don’t test employees regularly—but the phenomenon is worrying some companies and their boards, who fear they could be held liable for illegal activity, according to consultants and others close to the companies.
Users rely on drug dealers for ecstasy and most other psychedelics, or in elite cases, they employ chemists. One prolific drug dealer in San Francisco who serves a slice of the tech world is known as “Costco” because users can buy bulk at a discount, according to people familiar with the business. “Cuddle puddles,” which feature groups of people embracing and showing platonic affection, have become standard fare.
Some start dabbling with psychedelics in search of mental clarity or to address health issues and end up using the drugs more frequently at Silicon Valley parties or raves, where they have taken a role similar to alcohol at a cocktail party.
Invitations to psychedelic parties are often sent through the encrypted messaging app Signal, rather than over email or text, so they can’t be shared easily. At some high-end private parties, users are asked to sign nondisclosure agreements and sometimes pay hundreds of dollars to attend, according to people who have attended or received invitations.
The Daily Stoic In Walter Isaacson’s wonderful biography of Leonardo Da Vinci, he spends a lot of time dissecting and exploring the ideas in Da Vinci’s notebooks. As Isaacson observed of Da Vinci’s lifelong habit of journaling: “Five hundred years later, Leonardo’s notebooks are around to astonish and inspire us. Fifty years from now, our own notebooks, if we work up the initiative to start them, will be around to astonish and inspire our grandchildren, unlike our tweets and Facebook posts.”
Paper, Isaacson says, is one of the best technologies ever invented.
And it’s remarkable that the contents of those enduring pieces of paper would fill the journals, commonplace books, and published books of writers over the centuries and for centuries more to come.
Stop wasting your time tweeting and texting and snapchatting. Or at least steal some of that time to start producing your own notebooks. Create something that, if the centuries aren’t astonished and inspired by them, at least your family can be. Issacson again: “They’ll be around 50 years for…your grandchildren or great-grandchildren.”
Take his advice. Get a notebook. And start writing!
1. Technology Stocks Set for Best Half Since Internet Bubble
2. Nasdaq vs. Small Cap Russell 2000 (small cap) Record Spread Twice in 3 Years
From Nasdaq Dorsey Wright
3. Nasdaq Cap Weight vs. Equal Weight Hit Previous Highs
This chart is showing you QQQ cap weighted vs. equal weight QQQ
4. Cap Weighted Means 7 Stocks When It Comes to Nasdaq
5. June Will Be Busiest Month for Options Trades Ever
Marketwatch By Joseph AdinolfiTrading in U.S. stock option contracts has surged in 2023 as retail and institutional traders have harnessed bullish call options to chase a runaway rally in U.S. stocks, market analysts told MarketWatch.As of Friday, 46 million option contracts linked to U.S. equity indexes, individual stocks and exchange-traded funds have traded hands every trading session on average this month, according to an analysis by Callie Cox, a U.S. equity strategist at eToro.This means that, barring a sudden drop-off in trading activity, June is on track to be the busiest month for option traders ever, Cox said. That is particularly notable given that the summer months are typically more placid on Wall Street.“It’s pretty incredible for a summer month. It shows how engaged investors are after such a strong rally,” said Callie Cox, a U.S. equity strategist at eToro, during an interview with MarketWatch
Jim Reid Deutsche Bank In this week’s piece (link here) they show an interesting graph that suggests that we’re now in the 85th percentile of periods since WWII without a 3% drawdown in the S&P 500. This has been 73 trading days and over 3 months in real life. Due to a combination of this, positioning, and where vol currently is, they think we’re due a 3-5% modest correction.
7. Solar panel prices are 85% lower than they were a decade ago, adjusted for inflation
8.Recent weakness in net loan issuance illustrates China’s challenges
Vanguard
Notes: Negative numbers reflect periods when loan repayments exceeded loan issuance. Figures are as of April 30 for each year displayed.
Sources: Vanguard calculations, using People’s Bank of China data as of April 30, 2023, accessed through CEIC. A billion yuan equals about USD 140 million.
9. Pickleball Injuries May Cost Americans Nearly $400 Million This Year, According to UBS
Bloomberg By Joe Weisenthal As for the ultimate math UBS writes First, we forecast 150% growth in pickleball players for 2023 or about 22 mn players. On volumes, we estimate the following: 1) total ED visits and hospitalizations informed by Weiss’ findings; 2) total outpatient visits and outpatient surgeries based on ED to outpatient care ratios from the American Hospital Association; and 3) post-acute episodes based on 1.5 30-day episodes per outpatient surgery and hospitalization.
In total, we estimate 67k ED visits, 366k outpatient visits, 8.8k outpatient surgeries, 4.7k hospitalizations, and 20k post-acute episodes. We then use the nature of pickleball injuries and care setting to inform our estimates of unit pricing. All said, we estimate $377 mn of medical costs related to pickleball of which $302 mn (80%) is attributable to the outpatient setting and $75 mn (20%) is attributable to the inpatient setting.
While more activity is generally seen as good and healthy, the analysts offer a somewhat depressing conclusion: “While we generally think of exercise as positively impacting health outcomes, the “can-do” attitude of today’s seniors can pose greater risk in other areas such as sports injuries, leading to a greater number of orthopedic procedures.”
Effective learning is not intuitive. And it’s made even more unintuitive by the fact that your brain is lazy and will play devil-on-your-shoulder the entire time. It wants to do what is easy, not necessarily what’s effective. And when it comes to learning, what feels like it’s working often doesn’t and what feels like it isn’t working often does. When you feel stupid, it’s usually a sign you’re getting smarter.
Time to outsmart our brains. If you need to learn a new topic or skill for work, if you’re a student studying for exams, or if you just want to get better at a hobby or area of interest, this is the post for you. (And if you have kids in your house, this is something you’ll want to review with them. This way in a few years they’ll be getting acceptance letters from prestigious schools and not planning an inside job at Dunkin Donuts.)
Sum Up Here’s how to outsmart your brain and learn effectively…
What Doesn’t Work: The tip of your highlighter is where wisdom goes to die. Take notes, remember that familiarity is not comprehension, and cramming doesn’t work over the long haul.
Organizing: Preparing to study is studying. Organizing your notes is critical for memory. (If you took notes on this post, you get a gold star.)
Meaning: Some subjects are complex and when the professor speaks all you hear is Charlie Brown’s teacher talking. But we comprehend and remember better when we take the time to create meaning. Don’t abstractly memorize; create a schema that the facts and ideas all fit into.
Self-Testing: It’s king. Yes, the nerdy kid in school making flash cards was right and you were wrong. Sorry. And don’t learn – overlearn.
During The Test: Don’t be distracted by the scent of looming catastrophe. Make an effort to remember. If you did the work above, it will make a difference. And be afraid don’t be afraid to change answers.
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in the US on Tuesday, and tonight he’ll be feted at a state dinner—making him only the third world leader to get one during Joe Biden’s presidency. While we don’t know whether the guest of honor will enjoy the saffron-infused risotto, we do know what he’ll be talking about in between bites: deepening economic ties.
One major topic will be a guest not invited: China. With US–China relations fraught, American companies are looking to diversify their manufacturing base, and India has been seizing the opportunity that provides.
India and the US are already plenty economically intertwined—especially in the tech sector:
Apple has shifted some iPhone production from China to India, and CEO Tim Cook attended the opening of the nation’s first Apple store in April.
About half of IBM’s workforce is located in India, according to Axios.
Around 60 Fortune 500 companies are run by CEOs of Indian origin, including Google and Adobe.
And with CEOs from Apple, Microsoft, FedEx, and Marriott among the anticipated guests at tonight’s gala, per CNBC, the relationship will only get stronger. New deals are expected to be announced during Modi’s stay, and he’s hoping to return home with:
A promise from Tesla. The prime minister met with self-proclaimed Modi “fan” Elon Musk on Tuesday, and Musk said Modi pushed for “significant investments” in India—which Musk said he intends to make. The Tesla CEO said the company will be in India “as soon as humanly possible.”
Permission to manufacture military jet engines. It’s been in the works for a while, but the Biden administration will probably officially authorize General Electric to make F414 engines in India, a necessary step since defense technology is heavily regulated.
There’s a catch: Both the US and India want to counter China’s economic might, but there are concerns about Modi’s record on human rights: He has cracked down on dissent and free speech and helped sow religious discord.—AR
India ETF 50day crossing thru 200day to upside.
7. Globalization Eliminated 8m High Paying Manufacturing Jobs in America.
Jack Ablin Cresset Globalization was responsible for not just increased profitability, but also higher productivity, lower inflation and modest interest rates. These benefits, however, came at the expense of high-paying manufacturing jobs. Between 1988 and 2009, more than eight million jobs were eliminated from America’s manufacturing sector, leaving a trail of unemployment and despair. These families represented the seeds of the populist movement that has germinated in recent years.
9. Number of Homes for Sale the Lowest Number on Record
Dave Lutz Jones Trading Data from Redfin show number of homes for sale in U.S. fell by 7.1% y/y to 1.4 million (seasonally adjusted) as of May … lowest level on record (going back to 2012) and first annual decline since April 2022
10. How to Reduce Your Self-Esteem in 8 Easy Steps
We must remember it’s not what you are but what you can become. We know that self-esteem is not inherited, but it is constructed. By following the simple and ancient Chinese stratagem of “knowing to straighten something by bending it first”, we must try each day to ask ourselves, how could I worsen my self-esteem to learn how to improve it? In asking ourselves this question, we can already identify eight dysfunctional patterns that, if repeated in a rigid and generalized way, will ensure the success of our problem. These are:
1. Complaining.
Very often talking about one’s difficulties initially produces relief, but in the long run, it amplifies and complicates the extent of one’s discomfort and transforms pain into suffering.
2. Seeking help.
It is reassuring because if we receive it, it also means that the person who “helps us” cares about us, but unwittingly they may also be communicating another message to us: “I help you because you are not capable of helping yourself,” thus triggering a dependency on others and weakening ourselves.
3. Avoidance.
Feeling fear in the face of some situations can be natural, and so is the primordial instinct to avoid it, but if at that moment it produces relief in the long run, our perception of danger increases, as does the inability to deal with such situations.
4. Self-Fulfilling Prophecy.
Our actions influence the opinions that others have of us, determining their behaviours which, in turn, reinforces and confirms our beliefs and our actions.
5. Postpone.
Cultivating the illusion that we can act effectively but in reality failing to do so is a great way to weaken our determination and corrupt our ability to make and take decisive action, which is at the heart and soul of self-esteem.
6. Saying yes when we should say no.
In an attempt to acquire greater security, it is sometimes easy to give into the temptation to always say ‘yes’ to people’s demands, in the illusion that our self-esteem can be increased by being more likeable or compliant. Nothing could be further from the truth. Saying yes to avoid having to say no is at the root of many social and relational difficulties.
7. Neglect yourself.
Contrary to common sense, dressing in a too-humble or disheveled way can worsen people’s views of us. Remember that there is rarely a second chance to make a good first impression.
8. Surrender.
“You are defeated, only when you surrender”. Detrimental to our survival as humans is to avoid surrendering or believing nothing will come of our ideas. We should keep pushing forward until our goal is reached.
The US Is Openly Stockpiling Dirt on All Its CitizensDELL CAMERON
A newly declassified report from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence reveals that the federal government is buying troves of data about Americans.
THE UNITED STATES government has been secretly amassing a “large amount” of “sensitive and intimate information” on its own citizens, a group of senior advisers informed Avril Haines, the director of national intelligence, more than a year ago.
The size and scope of the government effort to accumulate data revealing the minute details of Americans’ lives are described soberly and at length by the director’s own panel of experts in a newly declassified report. Haines had first tasked her advisers in late 2021 with untangling a web of secretive business arrangements between commercial data brokers and US intelligence community members.
What that report ended up saying constitutes a nightmare scenario for privacy defenders.
“This report reveals what we feared most,” says Sean Vitka, a policy attorney at the nonprofit Demand Progress. “Intelligence agencies are flouting the law and buying information about Americans that Congress and the Supreme Court have made clear the government should not have.”
In the shadow of years of inaction by the US Congress on comprehensive privacy reform, a surveillance state has been quietly growing in the legal system’s cracks. Little deference is paid by prosecutors to the purpose or intent behind limits traditionally imposed on domestic surveillance activities. More craven interpretations of aging laws are widely used to ignore them. As the framework guarding what privacy Americans do have grows increasingly frail, opportunities abound to split hairs in court over whether such rights are even enjoyed by our digital counterparts.
“I’ve been warning for years that if using a credit card to buy an American’s personal information voids their Fourth Amendment rights, then traditional checks and balances for government surveillance will crumble,” Ron Wyden, a US senator from Oregon, says.
The stock market thinks we have the worst behind us, see chart below, which shows that earnings growth is expected to bottom this quarter and then improve quite rapidly over the coming four quarters. This forecast will only be correct if core inflation moves quickly down towards 2%. If core inflation remains around 5% then the Fed will have to put additional downward pressure on demand in the economy and ultimately earnings. If core inflation remains sticky around 5%, we will likely remain longer in a period with high capital costs and low earnings growth. Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, PartnerApollo Global Management
Stock ownership in the US is on the rise. 61% of people reported owning stocks in the latest Gallup poll, the highest % since 2008. After the global financial crisis and stock market crash, we saw a decline in ownership for a number of years, but that trend is now moving in the opposite direction.
The most predictive factor when it comes to owning stock? Incomes. The higher your household income, the more likely you are to own stocks.
4. Bank Lending Standards Tighten Back to Covid Levels
Dave Lutz Jones Trading REVENGE SPENDING– After two years of spending heavily on vacations and other experiences that they were deprived of during pandemic lockdowns, Americans may be on the brink of pulling back — a cool-down that could help slow inflation. The nation witnessed two years of red-hot “revenge spending,” the name economists and corporate executives gave to a spike in recreational spending and vacation splurging that followed coronavirus lockdowns. As demand rose, so did prices for airfares, hotels and other sought-after services.
But many of those price categories are now cooling. Hotel prices have recently climbed much more slowly on a year-over-year basis, and airfares fell in May, a report on Tuesday showed. If that trend continues this summer, it could contribute to a continuing slowdown in overall services inflation, something the Fed has been watching and waiting for, NYT Reports.
The Daily Stoic So much happens in life. There is so much happening. Forget macro events—there are dogs that get sick in the middle of the night. There are trips that need to be made to the store. There are unpleasant conversations to have. Bills that somebody has to pay. Dishes to be done. Hard decisions to make.
Most people’s reaction—especially when those macro events are stressing them out on top of everything—is to shirk. It’s to see if someone else can handle all that for them. It’s to try to get out of whatever can be got out of. It’s to resent even the idea of an obligation.
Remember, in a crisis Marcus Aurelius stepped up. In fact, the famous story about him is that he didn’t want to be emperor at all. He wasn’t sure he could do it. But the night Marcus was informed of the news, he had a dream. In that dream he had shoulders made of ivory. It was a sign: He could do it. His shoulders could bear the weight. Put the load right on me, he said to himself. And he bore it for the rest of his life.
Things are hard right now. They’re scary. They’re not your fault. But they are your responsibility. They are yours to step up and carry. Because you have the shoulders that can bear the weight.
Dave Lutz Jones Trading Below the surface, there are encouraging signs the rally has legs, even though few investors had much confidence in it until recently. Investor sentiment rose last week to the highest level in a year and a half. Market breadth, or the number of stocks participating in the rally, has finally widened beyond shares of big technology companies, WSJ notes
2. SPY and QQQ Hitting Next Level of Resistance
3. Amazon Running Up to 200 Week Moving Average
4. Cardboard Box Demand
The Daily Shot Blog Subdued demand for cardboard boxes suggests a deceleration in economic activity.
Millionaires are fleeing China at a faster pace as the post-COVID economic rebound fizzles.
China will see a net loss of 13,500 in 2023, up from 10,800 in 2022, the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report said.
Meanwhile, the US will see a net gain of 2,100 millionaires, up from 1,500 last year.
China will see a net loss of 13,500 high-net-worth individuals in 2023, up from 10,800 in 2022, according to the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report.
The world’s second largest economy continues to lead the world in the number of lost millionaires, a trend that has been going on over the last decade, according to Henley.
“General wealth growth in the country has been slowing over the past few years, which means that the recent outflows could be more damaging than usual,” wrote Andrew Amoils, head of research at New World Wealth, in Henley’s report.
After China’s economy expanded strongly from 2000 to 2017, the growth of millionaires since then has been negligible, he added.
And in more recent years, bans by the US and other other countries on Huawei technology was a major blow for China, Amoils said, as was the worsening in international relations from the fallout over the coronavirus and tensions over Taiwan and Hong Kong.
The Henley report also comes as China’s post-COVID economic recovery has disappointed. First-quarter GDP growth saw a bounce from the prior quarter. But more recent data have pointed to slowing growth in retail sales as well as drops in home sales, industrial production and fixed-asset investment.
The yuan and Chinese stock indexes have tumbled this year, with some commentators calling the rebound narrative a “charade” and even predicting that China is headed for a “lost decade.”
Meanwhile, India is poised to lose fewer millionaires, even though it just topped China as the world’s most populous country and overtook the UK last year as the world’s fifth largest economy. This year, India will lose 6,500 millionaires on a net basis, down from 7,500 in 2022.
Among the world’s top millionaire gainers, Australia leads with a net addition of 5,200, up from 3,800 last year, followed by the United Arab Emirates with 4,500 and Singapore with 3,200. The US is expected to see 2,100 more millionaires this year, up from 1,500 in 2022.
“In general, wealth migration trends look set to revert to pre-pandemic patterns this year, with Australia reclaiming the top spot for net inflows as it did for five years prior to the Covid outbreak, and China seeing the biggest net outflows as it has each year for the past decade. The notable exceptions are former top wealth magnets, the UK and the US,” said Henley & Partners CEO Juerg Steffen.
Neuroscience research is revealing mechanisms underlying the purposes of sleep.
During waking hours, new neuronal connections are made. During sleep, less important connections are weakened.
This process allows for learning to occur the next day.
The purpose of sleep is widely regarded as a mystery yet to be solved. I have frequently heard laypeople, academics in other disciplines, and even sleep researchers say “Nobody knows why we sleep.” Recently I attended Sleep, the annual meeting of the Sleep Research Society and the American Academy of Sleep Medicine in Indianapolis and heard an invited address by Dr. Chiara Cirelli, a neuroscientist at the University of Wisconsin. The title was “The Burden of Wake and the Reasons of Sleep: How Sleep Promotes Synaptic Homeostasis”. In the presentation, Dr. Cirelli elegantly summarized some of what sleep neuroscience research has revealed in the last decade.
Her first point was that since we are relatively vulnerable when we sleep a large part of the 24-hour day, sleep must serve a very important function, or evolution would not have selected for it. Early humans had to hunt and gather food, find and build shelter, and protect themselves from predators and competing groups. Those activities consume a lot of time, so unless sleep served very important purposes, those who slept less would have an advantage. Yet sleeping for long hours of the night was maintained over the millennia. But until recently, scientists had only vague ideas about what exactly happens during sleep that is so beneficial.
Neurons in the brain are connected through synapses, the junctions that allow linkages of neural networks whereby signals are transmitted throughout the brain and onto cells in all parts of the body. During waking hours, new learning can strengthen connections through an electrophysiological process called potentiation. You can think of knowledge you have that has been acquired over long periods of time as a group of well-connected neural paths. When you learn something new, new paths are connected to the older, already-established paths. During the waking hours, your brain processes massive amounts of new information through the sensory systems. Some of that information seems trivial, such as remembering where you parked your car. But that memory (which is often weak!) has to be preserved at least until you reach the car. It establishes a connection to your memory of what your car looks like, a well-established “old” memory. The brain creates multitudes of these kinds of connections daily. During the course of the day, the connections can become “saturated” such that even though there are billions of neurons and trillions of connections among neurons, particular circuits can become overwhelmed. Everyone is familiar with the concept of “information overload” whereby new information is being processed too fast to accommodate it all.
Dr. Cirelli explained that during sleep, a great many synaptic connections are weakened so that connections are more available for new learning the next day. Continuing with the parked car example, the exact location where the car was parked is not needed again, so the connections made are weakened. In fact, if it were not, you might retain memories of hundreds of places where you have parked, leading to considerable confusion! Evidence is available from multiple independent labs conducting studies on animals and humans that show weakening through measurement of the processes in several ways: by measuring electrical potentials; assessing molecular changes; and observing structural changes. Furthermore, genetic research is revealing which genes direct these processes to unfold. If you don’t sleep, or if you sleep less than an optimal number of hours relative to your typical sleep period, learning may be compromised the next day. This body of research adds to that showing other benefits of sleep such as downregulation of emotional arousal and clearance of waste byproducts of metabolism.
You don’t have to be a scientist to understand that not sleeping at all or not sleeping well exerts a cost in terms of next day functioning — this is common cultural wisdom. This research is an example of science showing the “why” and “how” mechanisms and physiological processes that underlie that wisdom.
Lucky Seven for the Nasdaq-It wasn’t by much, but the Nasdaq rallied 0.14% last week and extended its streak of weekly gains to seven. That’s the longest streak of weekly gains for the index since November 2019. To find a longer streak, you have to go back to February 2018 when the Nasdaq had ten straight weeks of gains. As shown in the chart below, since the Financial Crisis lows in May 2019, there have now been seven different periods where the Nasdaq rallied for at least seven weeks in the row.
Looking at forward performance after a seven-week winning streak in more detail, the chart below shows the maximum drawdown for the S&P 500 in the three months after seven straight weeks of gains in the Nasdaq. Here again, it’s easy to see the large declines that followed the 2010 and 2012 streaks, but in the four other streaks, the S&P 500 never even pulled back 4%. In two of those periods, the maximum decline never exceeded 0.41%. For reference, the average ‘max drawdown’ over any three-month period for the Nasdaq since the start of 2009 has been 5.33%
3. Average Stock Dispersion Significant Jump 2020-2023-Blackrock
Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from Refinitiv, June 2023. Notes: The chart shows the dispersion in Russell 1000 stock returns based on a 21-day moving average (dark orange line), average dispersion from July 2009 after the global financial crisis through 2019 (yellow line), and average dispersion from 2020 through June 8, 2023 (green line).
The average range of individual stock returns versus broad index returns, or dispersion, since 2020 (green line in chart) has jumped about 10 percentage points above the average from 2009 to 2019 (yellow line). We think that reflects the new macro regime and structural changes shaping returns. Forum attendees agreed the new regime of heightened volatility is playing out. We see supply constraints driving higher inflation in the new regime. Persistent inflation makes it unlikely developed market (DM) central banks will cut interest rates this year. The new regime presents central banks with a sharp trade-off between living with some inflation and crushing activity, as we’ve argued. That shift is in sharp contrast with the four-decade period of steady activity before 2020 known as the Great Moderation. Today’s environment offers new opportunities, in our view, thanks to market divergences and structural changes playing a bigger role.
Senior Economist to WisdomTree and Emeritus Professor of Finance at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.
While last week was quiet for economic data releases, the S&P 500 entered into a bull market phase on Thursday, defined as 20% move from its low. Saying we are in a bull market makes it seem like the markets are going up. And indeed, once you experience a 20% move, the following year has been above average. But it is also very important to remember in two of the last three bear markets, we had 20% bounces similar to the one we just had, but then hit new lows.
During the great financial crisis in 2008-2009, the market rallied 20% off the low in November 2008 and then plunged to new lows in March of 2009. Similarly, after the dot-com bust in 2000, we rallied about 25% off the lows and then went to a new low right after that. This recent bull market move is no guarantee we are out of the woods from the downturn.
With that caveat, my feeling is that the October low will hold, but I remain cautious and do not think we have the start of a major up move here.
This week we have the important inflation data and the Fed decision. For someone who focuses a lot on the Fed, you’d think the combination of inflation, the Fed decision, and the Fed dot plot would be my prime focus this week. Rather, much more interestingly I will be watching Thursday’s initial jobless claims. Last week we had a considerable move higher in jobless claims—and it does not look like it was caused by similarly fraudulent claims from Massachusetts as the last spike was a few weeks back. Jobless claims are a notoriously volatile indicator. And seasonal adjustments could be responsible for some of the increase this week. It is critical to see how serious of a move we have in this series and if this turns into the downturn everyone has been waiting for.
I believe CPI will come in relatively tame, within +\- one tenth of a percentage point of expectations. We have had a drop in oil prices so headline inflation will look better than core inflation.
I expect the Fed to pause or skip hikes at this week’s meeting, but the headlines are likely to read that there was a hawkish dot plot. During the press conference, Chair Powell will make every effort to say the skip in hikes at this meeting does not mean the Fed is claiming mission accomplished. Hawkish narratives at the conference and dot plot should appease the hawks on his committee who would prefer continued hikes.
Despite Fed funds futures now pricing in near certainty of a hike in July–and no matter what the dot plot reads out or Powell insinuates, I would bet against any future hikes. We’re entering political season and there is already a ton of pressure not to create a deep recession. I expect a shallow recession that the market has arguably already positioned for. The NASDAQ is now selling for 30-times earnings, and the S&P 500 is selling for 20-times earnings. We have small and mid-cap equities selling for 14- and 15-times earnings, with value stocks at heavy discounts, pricing in and largely anticipating a mild recession.
We might not see much of a decline in the stock market even as the labor market deteriorates. The labor market weakening has political implications and would put a lot of pressure on the Fed, which does have a dual mandate to consider employment as well as inflation. That is why I am so focused on jobless claims this week. Is forcing 2 to 3 million workers out of a job worth an additional tick down in inflation? The Federal Reserve will have to keep re-evaluating this tradeoff.
After inflation normalizes, I expect the Fed to consider an increase its inflation target from 2% to 3%. During the heat of the inflation battle itself, it would be politically impossible to give up on its 2% target right now. But there is good theoretical motivation to move the target up from 2 to 3%. A decade ago, the normal and neutral Fed Funds Rate was over 4%, with 2% real economic growth and 2% inflation. A 4% neutral rate gave the Fed ample room to stimulate the economy into a downturn by cutting rates. But with demographic and productivity trends leading to slower growth, a lower neutral rate is warranted, and I think the neutral rate is heading to 2-2.5% or close to zero real. A 3% inflation target gives the Fed more room to cut rates when they need to stimulate the economy.
7. History of Unemployment Rate and Bull Markets Starting
Could be turned on its head due to Covid and shortage of labor??
Ben Carlson Blog Many historical market relationships have been turned on their head since the pandemic but there has been a clear correlation between stock market returns and the unemployment rate over the past 75 years or so.
These are the ensuing 1, 5 and 10 year average returns from starting unemployment rates since 1948:
by Ed Batista Historically, leaders achieved their position by virtue of experience on the job and in-depth knowledge. They were expected to have answers and to readily provide them when employees were unsure about what to do or how to do it. The leader was the person who knew the most, and that was the basis of their authority.
Leaders today still have to understand their business thoroughly, but it’s unrealistic and ill-advised to expect them to have all the answers. Organizations are simply too complex for leaders to govern on that basis. One way for leaders to adjust to this shift is to adopt a new role: that of coach. By using coaching methods and techniques in the right situations, leaders can still be effective without knowing all the answers and without telling employees what to do.
Coaching is about connecting with people, inspiring them to do their best, and helping them to grow. It’s also about challenging people to come up with the answers they require on their own. Coaching is far from an exact science, and all leaders have to develop their own style, but we can break down the process into practices that any manager will need to explore and understand. Here are the three most important:
Ask
Coaching begins by creating space to be filled by the employee, and typically you start this process by asking an open-ended question. After some initial small talk with my clients and students, I usually signal the beginning of our coaching conversation by asking, “So, where would you like to start?” The key is to establish receptivity to whatever the other person needs to discuss, and to avoid presumptions that unnecessarily limit the conversation. As a manager you may well want to set some limits to the conversation (“I’m not prepared to talk about the budget today.”) or at least ensure that the agenda reflects your needs (“I’d like to discuss last week’s meeting, in addition to what’s on your list.”), but it’s important to do only as much of this as necessary and to leave room for your employee to raise concerns and issues that are important to them. It’s all too easy for leaders to inadvertantly send signals that prevent employees from raising issues, so make it clear that their agenda matters.
In his book Helping, former MIT professor Edgar Schein identifies different modes of inquiry that we employ when we’re offering help, and they map particularly well to coaching conversations. The initial process of information gathering I described above is what Schein calls “pure inquiry.” The next step is “diagnostic inquiry,” which consists of focusing the other person’s attention on specific aspects of their story, such as feelings and reactions, underlying causes or motives, or actions taken or contemplated. (“You seem frustrated with Chris. How’s that relationship going?” or “It sounds like there’s been some tension on your team. What do you think is happening?” or “That’s an ambitious goal for that project. How are you planning to get there?”)
The next step in the process is what Schein somewhat confusingly calls “confrontational inquiry”. He doesn’t mean that we literally confront the person, but, rather, that we challenge aspects of their story by introducing new ideas and hypotheses, substituting our understanding of the situation for the other person’s. (“You’ve been talking about Chris’s shortcomings. How might you be contributing to the problem?” or “I understand that your team’s been under a lot of stress. How has turnover affected their ability to collaborate?” or “That’s an exciting plan, but it has a lot of moving parts. What happens if you’re behind schedule?”)
In coaching conversations it’s crucial to spend as much time as needed in the initial stages and resist the urge to jump ahead, where the process shifts from asking open-ended questions to using your authority as a leader to spotlight certain issues. The more time you can spend in pure inquiry, the more likely the conversation will challenge your employee to come up with their own creative solutions, surfacing the unique knowledge that they’ve gained from their proximity to the problem.
Listen
It’s important to understand the difference between hearing and listening. Hearing is a cognitive process that happens internally — we absorb sound, interpret it, and understand it. But listening is a whole-body process that happens between two people that makes the other person truly feel heard.
Listening in a coaching context requires significant eye contact, not to the point of awkwardness, but more than you typically devote in a casual conversation. This ensures that you capture as much data about the other person as possible — facial expressions, gestures, tics — and conveys a strong sense of interest and engagement.
Effective listening also requires our focused attention. Coaching is fundamentally incompatible with multitasking, because while you may be able to hear what another person is saying while working on something else, it’s impossible to listen in a way that makes the other person feel heard. It’s critical to eliminate distractions. Turn off your phone, close your laptop, and find a dedicated space where you won’t be interrupted.
Coaching conversations can take place over the phone, of course, and in that medium it’s even more important to refrain from multitasking so that in the absence of visual data, you can pick up on subtle cues in someone’s speech.
In my experience taking brief, sporadic notes in a coaching conversation helps me to stay focused and lessens the burden of maintaining information in my working memory (which holds just five to seven items for most people.) But note-taking itself can become a distraction, causing you to worry more about accurately capturing the other person’s comments than about truly listening. Coaching conversations aren’t depositions, so don’t play stenographer. If you feel the need to take notes, try writing one word or phrase at a time, just enough to jog your memory later.
Empathize
Empathy is the ability not only to comprehend another person’s point of view, but also to vicariously experience their emotions. Without empathy other people remain alien and opaque to us. When present it establishes the interpersonal connection that makes coaching possible.
A key to the importance of empathy can be found in the work of Brené Brown, a research professor at the University of Houston whose work focuses on the topics of vulnerability, courage, worthiness and shame. Brown defines shame as “the intensely painful feeling or experience of believing that we are flawed and therefore unworthy of love and belonging.” Empathy, Brown notes, is “the antidote to shame.” When employees need your help they are likely experiencing some form of shame, even if it’s just mild embarrassment — and the more serious the problem, the deeper the shame. Feeling and expressing empathy is critical to helping the other person defuse their embarrassment and begin thinking creatively about solutions.
But note that our habitual expressions of empathy can sometimes be counterproductive. Michael Sahota, a coach in Toronto who works with groups of software developers and product managers, explains some of the traps we fall into when trying to express empathy: We compare our issues to theirs (“My problem’s bigger.”), try to be overly positive (“Look on the bright side.”), or leap to problem-solving while ignoring what they’re feeling in the moment.
Finally, be aware that expressing empathy need not prevent you from holding people to high standards. You may fear that empathizing is equivalent to excusing poor performance but this is a false dichotomy. Empathizing with the difficulties your employees face is an important step in the process of helping them build resilience and learn from setbacks. After you’ve acknowledged an employee’s struggles and feelings, they’re more likely to respond to your efforts to motivate improved performance.
When you coach as a leader you don’t need to be the expert. You don’t need to be the smartest or most experienced person in the room. And you don’t need to have all the solutions. But you do need to be able to connect with people, to inspire them to do their best, and to help them search inside and discover their own answers.
@Charlie BilelloIt doesn’t appear to be. Looking out 1 to 5 years, average forward returns for the S&P 500 from the lowest 10% of $VIX levels (<12) were not only positive, but in many cases higher than the returns from all other $VIX levels (>12).
Zerohedge-Below are the top 10 EVs for 2023, ranked by their EPA combined driving range.
For further context, we’ve also included price. These values are for the specific trim that achieves the stated range. In some cases, more expensive trims are available but have a lower range (e.g. Tesla Plaid).
Model
EPA Combined Driving Range
Price*
Lucid Air
516 mi (830 km)
$138,000
Tesla Model S
405 mi (652 km)
$84,990
Hyundai Ioniq 6
361 mi (581 km)
$45,500
Tesla Model 3
358 mi (576 km)
$55,990
Mercedes-Benz EQS
350 mi (563 km)
$104,400
Tesla Model X
348 mi (560 km)
$94,990
Tesla Model Y
330 mi (531 km)
$52,990
GMC Hummer EV Pickup
329 mi (529 km)
$110,295
Rivian R1T
328 mi (528 km)
$74,800
BMW iX
324 mi (521 km)
$87,100
Note that the EV market is rapidly evolving, and the data in this table has a limited shelf life. For example, Rivian is releasing a battery option dubbed the “Max pack” which promises up to 400 miles, but is not yet EPA rated.
I’ve always taken a natural food-based approach, and much of my diet is inspired by a unique blend of two of the greatest food cultures in the world: Mediterranean and Asia. I call it the “MediterAsian” diet.
Both the Mediterranean region and Asia have areas known as Blue Zones, where people age better and are overall healthier.
Here are six staples of MediterAsian eating that can help you boost immune health and stay healthy:
1. Fruits
Apples:An apple a day might keep the doctor away, but three apples a day can help reduce body fat. They’re versatile, great for salads, and delicious as a snack or baked in a dessert.
Pears:Pears are an excellent source of dietary fiber (a medium-sized fruit has 6 grams) for gut health.
Pro tip: to find a ripe pear, hold the fruit by its base with one hand, and with the other, pinch the flesh at the bottom of the stem. If the flesh gives slightly, it’s ready to eat.
Soy: Soy is eaten as a bean, made into tofu, fermented, and can even be transformed into wine. It has been associated with lowering the risk of cardiovascular disease by 20% and diabetes by 23%.
Carrots: An ancient root vegetable that originated in Southwest Asia, carrots are a good source of dietary fiber for gut health. A half cup of grated carrot has 2 grams of fiber.
Mushrooms: Mushrooms contain a soluble fiber called beta-D-glucan, which stimulates defenses to grow new blood vessels needed for healing wounds. At the same time, it can prevent harmful blood vessels from feeding cancers.
3. Legumes
White beans: Beans are a nutritious food that can help reduce cardiovascular risk factors by lowering blood cholesterol levels. They also contain valuable nutrients like iron, zinc, magnesium and folate.
Lentils: Lentils are a classic legume in Mediterranean cuisine. A half cup of dry lentils contains 18 grams of fiber, which is more than half of the recommended daily intake for men and women.
4. Bottles and jars
Extra virgin olive oil (EVOO): EVOO is the most desirable form of olive oil. The “extra virgin” refers to oil that is not refined, and as a result, contains tiny bits of ripe olives. The oil and bits are the source of potent polyphenols that activate health defenses.
When I buy EVOO, I scan the label on the bottle to identify which olive varietals were used. Many are made from a variety of olives, which can taste very nice, but I prefer monovarietal oil, which is less likely to be diluted with cheaper oils.
Fermented bean paste: Stroll through the middle aisles of any Asian grocery store, and you’ll see many kinds of fermented bean paste. Made from fermented soy, they contain bioactives that fight fat cells.
5. Seafood
Salmon:Salmon is high in omega-3s, which get absorbed into fat cells and are metabolized. Then they create proteins that are released like cellular firefighters into the surrounding fat mass to extinguish the inflammation caused by fat.
Roe: If you’re exploring unique tastes, you must try the roe (eggs) of certain seafoods. Roe is naturally packed with omega-3s, so it takes remarkably little to get a major dose of healthy fats.
Sardine: Sardines are a time-honored seafood of the Mediterranean. They contain bioactives that can improve metabolism and lower blood cholesterol.
6. Liquids
Matcha tea: Matcha is a green tea known for its vivid green color. Studies have found that matcha can counter the metabolic effects of a high-fat diet.
Oolong tea: A study by the U.S. Department of Agriculture showed that drinking six cups of oolong tea three days a week improved overall metabolism.
1. Historical Data on S&P 500 Rallying 20% Off Low
What Happens when the S&P enters a new “Bull Market”? – 13 times stocks 20% off lows and a yr later higher 12 times and up 17.7% on avg. 6 months later up 10% on avg. 3 times made new lows, 2x in tech bubble and once in Financial Crisis, Ryan notes
2. Small Caps had First Big Outperformance of Year
The last few days have seen Small Caps up 7% and Nasdaq down 1%-Zerohedge
4. One-Quarter of Small Cap Companies Not Generating Enough Cash to Cover their Debt Service
Jack Ablin Cresset We estimate that about one-quarter of the Russell 2000 companies, representing nearly one million jobs, are currently not generating enough cash flow to cover their debt service payments. Unless interest rates suddenly turn lower, these companies will either default or face debt restructuring and the banks will have to write down the loans.
6. Lumber Makes New Lows as Major Homebuilders Make New Highs?
92% of Homes in U.S. are Wood Framed….this chart compared Lumber to Homebuilders ETF XHB…straight down.
7. Consumer Discretionary ETF Bullish Action
50day thru 200day to upside in XLY.
8. Netflix Closes Above 200-Week Moving Average
First close above in 18 months.
9. Global M&A 500 Deals to Less than 200
M&A activity has declined over the past two years, and this trend will continue, driven lower by central banks increasing the costs of capital as they continue to fight inflation.
Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, Partner
10. The Being Outside Vaccine-Scott Galloway
No single thing caused our loneliness crisis, and there is no one remedy. However, stepping outside is a step in the right direction. Being outside offers a wealth of positive benefits: It lowers blood pressure and heart rate, enhances immune function, and decreases the likelihood of diabetes and cardiovascular mortality. Exposure to sunlight increases testosterone levels in men, while trips to the park improve health outcomes and create resilience in children who’ve experienced trauma, abuse, and poverty. Spending two hours per week outside has been shown to significantly increase health and happiness. Some doctors prescribe time spent in nature. The Swedes have a word for this, friluftsliv, “living close to nature,” and they offer tax breaks for companies with policies that encourage it. The biggest threat to this lifestyle? The crowding out of the outside world by our devices, consumed mostly in the inside world.
One of the victims of 2022 speculative crash….IPO ETF showing life…50day thru 200day to upside….New 2023 High.
IPO ETF Chart breaking above a downtrend line going back to 2021
2. Yesterday….The Market Came Within a Few Basis Points of This Record Going Back to 2008
Marketwatch The last time the Russell 2000 gained more than 2.5% and the Dow finished the day lower was on Oct. 10, 2008, according to Dow Jones Market Data. ByWilliam Watts
Yesterday Russell 2000 +2.63% vs. Dow +3 basis points.
3. Russell 2000 Small Cap Returns Post S&P 500 Coming Out of Bear Market
Dorsey Wright We are working with a limited testing history here, as there simply have not been that many bear market environments for the S&P 500 since the origin of our Russell 2000 data in December 1978. Still, the data adds to the unique story the Russell 2000 has shown over the last eight months. Forward returns for RUT following the conclusion of the S&P 500 bear market have been mixed. Some periods show sharp upside movement, like 1982, 2009, and 2020. Others show more muted movement or weakness. Those returns also do not seem to be dependent on the extent of the rally leading up to the bear market conclusion.
4. America is Undergoing a Factory Construction Boom
6. NVDA Still Well Below Revenues of Other FAANG Stocks
Bespoke-Recent high flyer and trillion dollar market cap club hopeful, NVIDIA (NVDA), may be one of the largest stocks by market cap in the S&P 500, but it is far from the largest in terms of revenues.
The Global Adoption Of Battery Electric Vehicles Is Gaining More Traction
By Sam Korus | @skorusARK Director of Research, Autonomous Technology & Robotics
Battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales surpassed 10% share of global light vehicle sales in the first quarter of 2023, as shown below. For the past three years, BEV adoption during the first quarter has lagged that in the fourth quarter, perhaps because of Chinese New Year. This year, however, BEV share broke that seasonal trend.
Not all automakers have participated in the upside. Tesla, BYD, VW, and GAC Motor, for example, accounted for ~75% of the year-to-date BEV sales growth on a year-over-year basis through April 20231—even though they account for only ~48% of total sales—while ~40% of automakers reported BEV sales declines. Macroeconomic headwinds seem to be separating the winners from the losers.
The Daily Stoic What new information could there have possibly been for Seneca, in 62 AD, when he finally broke with Nero? Nero had been deranged for years (as detailed in James Romm’s excellent book Dying Every Day). He had been blood thirsty for years, unfit for leadership since almost the beginning. Seneca knew better from the beginning–the man was a philosopher and historian and could not have been deceived for long.
We can sit here and judge. We can shake our heads in bafflement. But we really shouldn’t. The fact that Seneca eventually worked up the courage to participate in the Piso Conspiracy to unseat his former boss shouldn’t be dismissed as “too little too late” because later is better than never.
Because not everyone did come around. In fact, most people never do–then or now. When we are wrong, when we’ve had our blinders on, when we’ve been implicated in something, even complicit in it, it’s so terribly, terribly hard to change our minds. It is hard to admit error, harder still to admit guilt, and the hardest to take steps to rectify it.
Instead of condemning those who have the fortitude, the awareness, the conscience (or even the desperate motivation of last-minute self-preservation), we should celebrate it. We should make soft landings for them, so as to encourage future folks. We should, as Marcus Aurelius tried to do, forgive. We should sympathize and realize how easily we could be in their position. We should take note of their example and make sure we are learning from it in our own lives.
Judgment is easy. Changing is hard–hard enough that late is still better than never.
1. The Equity Risk Premium Chart in Unchartered Waters
The ERP is defined as the difference between the expected earnings yield and the yield on safe Treasurys, with a higher number meaning investors are being compensated more for putting money in stocks. He said more than 100% of the reset on PE last year was due to higher 10-year Treasury yields. “Historically, that ‘moment of recognition’ for the market typically occurs when the forward NTM [next 12 months] EPS forecast for the S&P 500 goes negative on a y/y [year over year] basis.” The expected liquidity drain from the debt ceiling passage may help push this process along, he said. By Barbara Kollmeyer Marketwatch
Dave Lutz Jones Trading Wall Street hasn’t been this bearish on the stock market in more than a decade. Tech shares are a different story – Hedge funds and other speculative investors have built up a big bet that the S&P 500 will decline, marking their most bearish positioning since 2007. At the same time, they are preparing for a rally in the technology-focused Nasdaq-100, with net bullish wagers in recent weeks approaching the highest levels since late last year, WSJ reports.
Nasdaq Dorsey Wright The below chart shows the average level of the VIX in each calendar year from 1990 forward. As we can see, there have been a few different environments of either amplified or reduced volatility over the last 20+ years. After seeing average levels north of 20 in 1990, the VIX retreated to an average level south of 15 from 1993 through 1995. We then rose in several consecutive years to an average level north of 25 from 1998 through 2002, peaking at almost 28 in 2001. Volatility then declined through 2006, before ramping up again at the onset of the financial crisis in 2007. By 2012, volatility from that crisis had largely subsided, and we saw eight consecutive years of an average VIX level south of 20. While we are not quite halfway through 2023, we have seen this year’s average VIX level drop below 20 yet again, potentially suggesting another period of dampened volatility could be around the corner. https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright
7. The Fed Expansion During Banking Stress Already Reversed
8. Commercial Real Estate Loan Concentration at 700+ Banks
Torsten Slok, Ph.D. Chief Economist, PartnerApollo Global Management. Two years ago, the number of banks exceeding the FDIC’s CRE loan concentration guidelines was about 300. Today there are almost 700, see chart below. In other words, US banks have become much more vulnerable to a decline in commercial real estate prices.
Excessive stress arises from the amygdala within the brain.
Research indicates it is possible to dampen overactivity in the amygdala by changing attitudes.
Adopting the “four attitudes of equanimity” can reduce stress and change your life for the better.
Equanimity is a sense of calm and composure. It’s the polar opposite of stress. Myriad posters, t-shirts, and greeting cards espouse the virtues of staying calm, especially when adversity strikes. Actually doing so remains a challenge for many of us. It may be that adopting four fundamental attitudes can help you dampen, even extinguish, the fires of excessive stress and develop the equanimity so many seek but so few actually achieve.
The Raging Inferno
So, from whence do the fires of human distress arise? With the risk of oversimplification, the anatomical center of human stress is the limbic system. In 1952, Paul MacLean coined the term “limbic system” to refer to the functionally integrated system responsible for human emotion. Located deep within the center of the brain, it consists of the hypothalamus, amygdala, thalamus, and hippocampus. Of these four components, the amygdala is of greatest interest to our discussion. The amygdala consists of two almond-shaped anatomic nexuses. In addition to regulating autonomic physiology in everyday life, the amygdala also gives rise to the “fight or flight” response. It serves to alert and arouse the body in instances of fear, anger, aggression, panic, and traumatic stress. The amygdala is believed to be the primary culprit in the vast majority of stress-related physical illnesses. So, you can see that keeping the amygdala from becoming a raging inferno of hyperactivity would be desirable. But how?
Activate the “Cut-off Switch”
In his pioneering research, Herbert Benson (Benson, Beary, & Carol, 1974) asserted that the consistent practice of meditation could dampen the activity of the amygdaloid-based “fight or flight” response and reduce the likelihood of its over-reacting. Subsequent research confirmed his assertions (Everly & Lating, 2019). But perhaps there are easier and even quicker ways to dampen the flames of an overheating amygdala.
What’s the best way to put out a fire? Answer: Deprive the fire of fuel. What’s the best way to stop a broken waterline from flooding your house? Answer: Close the main water supply line. Pretty simple, right? Wouldn’t it be nice if there was a way to cut off that which fuels the fires of stress and anxiety? Well, there is. Research shows that attitudes can regulate stress and anxiety. By adopting four specific attitudes you can dampen the activity in brain regions from which stress and anxiety arise, especially the amygdala.
Four Attitudes of Equanimity
Research has shown that there are at least four attitudes that you can invoke that serve to reduce activity in the amygdaloid nuclei. Those are the attitudes I refer to as the “four attitudes of equanimity” (calm). They are: gratitude, forgiveness, acceptance, and hope. Functional neuroscience has shown these attitudes activate the angular gyrus, the anterior cingulate cortex, and prefrontal cortices, all of which have the ability to dampen acute arousal in the amygdala almost instantaneously. In doing so, they can provide you with an opportunity to pause, reflect, reassess, and perhaps react differently. More specifically, gratitude mitigates loss and envy. Forgiveness extinguishes anger and vengeance. Acceptance can quash worry, frustration, and misdirected protestation. And hope offers transcendence.
2. The Nonbank Financial System Controls $239 Trillion…..Half the World’s Financial Assets
Barrons-By Reshma Kapadia The nonbank financial system now controls $239 trillion, or almost half of the world’s financial assets, according to the Financial Stability Board. That’s up from 42% in 2008, and has doubled since the 2008-09 financial crisis. Postcrisis regulations helped shore up the nation’s biggest banks, but the restrictions that were imposed, coupled with years of ultralow interest rates, fueled the explosive growth of nonbank finance.
5. More Data on Bank Insiders Record Buying of own Stocks
Zero Hedge Another measure of insider sentiment is the buyers-to-sellers ratio, which compares unique insider buying to unique insider selling. The average quarterly ratio for banks since 2011 has been 1.8 to 1, according to the report. So far in the second quarter, the ratio is at a record high of 14.7 to 1.
“Insiders in this group are expressing a strong belief that the regional-banking system as a whole is sound, that there’s not a danger of a wide-scale collapse,” Ben Silverman, director of research at VerityData, said in a Bloomberg interview.
Note: “Heavy trucks – trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight.”Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 308 thousand SAAR in May 2020.
Heavy truck sales were at 558 thousand SAAR in May, up from 548 thousand in April, and up 20% from 464 thousand SAAR in May 2022. Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession. Sales were strong in May.
10. Common causes of bad decisions: Farnum Street Blog
1. Assumptions based on small sample sizes 2. Wanting the world to work the way we want rather than the way it does 3. Conforming to expectations/authority/group (social default) 4. Blindness to large trends (blind spots) 5. Not asking, “and then what?”
The Buick Envision SUV is assembled at a GM’s assembly plant in Shanghai, China, and imported to the…
According to reports, China is now the world’s biggest exporter of cars. Credit tariffs, the war in Ukraine, and the changing automotive landscape that have positively affected the country’s car production.
Chinese officials have released figures showing the country exported 1.07 million cars during the first three months of 2023, an increase of 58 percent compared to last year. That number pushes Japan, with 954,185 cars, to second place despite increasing its production by more than 6 percent in the same period. Germany, which previously held the second spot for passenger car exports, was surpassed by China last year — it now sits in third.
China’s rise in vehicle production is due to increased global demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) as countries enact legislation limiting fossil fuel (combustion) vehicles and their emissions. The Asian nation is well-positioned to accommodate the demand. According to an International Energy Agency report released in July 2022, China produces 75 percent of the world’s lithium-ion batteries and holds 85 percent production capacity for anodes and 70 percent for cathodes. The report says that China’s first-quarter exports of NEVs, including electric cars, rose more than 90 percent compared to a year ago.
The war in Ukraine has also helped China’s exports. Western countries have imposed trade sanctions on Moscow, so the Russian government has turned to China for its vehicles. While Volkswagen and Toyota pulled out of Russia after the Ukraine invasion, Chinese carmakers Great Wall, Chery, and Geely — satisfying the new demand — enjoyed a market share jump.
Other automakers, such as Tesla, are benefitting as well. Elon Musk’s electric car company has a massive Shanghai manufacturing plant that sends cars to Europe and Japan — the Gigafactory is currently capable of making 1.25 million vehicles a year and has plans to increase capacity. While Chinese-built Teslas still aren’t being imported into the United States, last month, the company began making Model Y sport utility vehicles for export to Canada.
SAIC Motor, the Chinese state-owned automaker based in Shanghai (which owns the MG brand), and BYD Auto Co., Ltd., an automotive subsidiary of the publicly listed Chinese multinational manufacturer BYD Company (backed by US investor Warren Buffett), are some of China’s top exporters of NEVs.
It’s interesting to note that import tariffs, legislated by the US government, have prevented most, but not all, automakers from bringing Chinese cars into the US marketplace. However, tariffs have not stopped GM from selling its Buick Envision SUV (based price of about $35,000) in the US market. Last year, GM imported 36,407 made-in-China vehicles, with the majority being the aforementioned Buick SUV. The balance was brought in by Polestar and Volvo brands.
Don’t get the impression that China is throttling back its manufacturing capabilities. On the contrary, Xu Haidong, the deputy chief engineer at the state-backed China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, has indicated that China’s target is to export a staggering 8 million passenger vehicles by 2030!
The Daily Stoic-A classic episode of Seinfeld begins with George Costanza having a revelation. “Every decision I’ve ever made in my entire life has been wrong,” George says. “Every instinct I have in every aspect of life…is often wrong.” Then just do the opposite, Jerry says. “Yes,” Costanza says with excitement, “I will do the opposite!” For the rest of the episode, George has great success doing the opposite of what his instincts tell him to do.
This is now known as The Costanza Principle. And it turns out to be scientifically-sound advice. On a recent episode of the Daily Stoic podcast, the positive psychiatrist Dr. Samantha Boardman said,
“There’s so much messaging today about how you always have to be yourself and trust your feelings. But I tell people, “be un-you.” Like what is the opposite of what you feel like doing right now? Or who is someone you really admire—what would they do in this moment? And I actually think that can get us closer to the versions of ourselves that we would like to be…Separating oneself from one’s impulse, taking a healthy step back and gaining some distance between what you feel like doing and what’s actually going to help you—you’ll make a better choice.”
As we’ve talked about before, this is ancient advice. In his essay on clemency, Seneca tells the story of the emperor Augustus’ wife advising him, “Do what doctors do when the usual prescriptions have no effect: try the opposite remedies. Strictness has gotten you nowhere…Now try and see how far clemency gets you.” And Epictetus’ line was, “What assistance can we find in the fight against habit? Try the opposite!”
When the Stoics, the science, a wife, and a sitcom agree on something, only a fool would decline to listen. Try the opposite today. Be un-you.
You can listen to the entire interview with Dr. Samantha Boardman where she talks about her book Everyday Vitality: Turning Stress into Strength, how you can improve your life by changing small daily habits, why feeling stressed is not necessarily a bad thing, how to deal with catastrophizing, and more.
From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading QUANT BUYERS– The market’s steady rise has puzzled analysts and portfolio managers as the S&P 500 has churned more than 9% higher this year (and the technology-focused Nasdaq Composite has risen 24%). One explanation: Quant funds, or those relying on computer models and automated trading, have been doubling down on equity markets as other investors have stepped back, citing high valuations and concerns about the likely course of the U.S. economy.
Quant-fund buying has pushed these funds’ net exposure to U.S. stocks to the highest level since December 2021, according to data from Deutsche Bank. Mainstream investors, in contrast, have been pulling cash from stock funds and pouring it into money markets, WSJ notes.
3. Number of Companies Citing “AI” in Earnings Calls
Food for Thought: Companies citing “AI” on earnings calls:
Investors in Chinese property developers are also getting more skeptical about the market.
The Markit iBoxx index for China high-yield real estate bonds is back down to near where it was trading in November, when Beijing announced support for the sector through a “16-point plan.”
While that plan “has been instrumental to setting a floor to this crisis,” the initiatives are only aimed at supporting developers’ debts at a project level, S&P Global Ratings analysts said in a May 22 report.
That means there’s still uncertainty about whether developers can repay investors for bonds at a holding company level, the ratings agency said. They’re looking at whether the developers can generate enough cash from property sales.
In April, the analysts pointed out that national property sales fell to 900 billion yuan ($126.87 billion), below last year’s monthly average of 1.1 trillion yuan.
For all of 2023, S&P expects China developer sales to fall by about 3% to 5% — slightly better than the previously forecast 5% to 8% drop.
This year’s forecasts are based on expectations that sales in larger cities grow by about 3%, while sales in smaller cities don’t drop by more than 10%, the report said.
9. Business Insider House prices are declining in these 7 Western states while continuing to hit new heights across the rest of the country
A single-family home stands in a canyon in the Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument in Utah. Carla Mozée
US house prices rose modestly in the first quarter, said the FHFA on Tuesday.
But some Western states are seeing the first year-over-year price declines in years.
The agency’s pricing index rose 4.3% in the first three months of the year.
America’s housing market broadly notched price increases as the key spring-selling season began, but one area of the country that was booming saw the air coming out of prices on a yearly basis, according to government data released Tuesday.
House prices grew 4.3% in the first quarter compared to a year ago, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said in a report on Tuesday. The advance meant that the market had notched annual appreciation each quarter since 2012.
The agency’s House Price Index reached just under 400, hitting an all-time high with figures tracking back to 1991. The index measures prices of single-family houses with mortgages guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
“U.S. house prices generally increased modestly in the first quarter,” said Anju Vajja, principal associate director at the FHFA’s Research and Statistics division. “However, year over year prices in many western states have started to decline for the first time in over ten years.”
Seven states logged prices declined, all located in the Western US. Utah led the list, with prices off by 4.35%. Nevada followed with a drop of 3.6%.
California’s house prices fell by 2.86%, and Washington saw a 2.62% drop, the FHFA report said. Also landing on the list were Idaho, Oregon, and Colorado, with the latter seeing prices down 1.07%.
Outside the Western states, the District of Columbia experienced a 2.35% year-over-year price pullback. Of the nine regions that the FHFA tracks, two had annual house price decreases. The Pacific division was down 2.4%, and the Mountain division was down 0.1%.
Rising interest rates directed by the Federal Reserve in fighting hot inflation have contributed to a slowdown in the housing market since last year, with home sellers slashing listing prices while listings themselves have become scarce.
Separate data from property software and data provider Black Knight has shown markets on the West Coast, including San Francisco and Seattle, have seen the biggest slowdowns. Localized data also point to the sharp regional divides in the housing market. Over the last four quarters, house prices rose in 78 of the top 100 largest metropolitan areas, fronted by a 14% rise for the Miami area. San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, California, was the largest metro area with the greatest price decline, at 10.1%.
Nationwide, FHFA said housing prices rose 0.6% in March. That rate outstripped the 0.3% estimate at Econoday.The start of the spring selling season showed house price gains in March in a separate S&P CoreLogic report released Tuesday. Its Case-Shiller Index rose 0.7% in March versus the year-ago period as tight inventory pressured prices upward.
The “decline in home prices that began in June 2022 may have come to an end,” in March, said S&P CoreLogic.
Farnum Street Blog “The issues facing San Francisco aren’t from a lack of funding. In 2021 alone, the city allocated $1.1 billion to its Department of Homelessness, and its budget has risen 500% since 2016. The results: Homelessness actually increased 64% during the same period. Where does all this money go?”
3. ChatGPT Reached 100m Monthly Active Users in 2 Months vs. 9 Months for TikTok
Zerohedge BY TYLER DURDEN. OpenAI’s viral ChatGPT chatbot reached 100 million monthly active users in just two months in January after launching in November, making it the fastest-growing consumer application in history. For some context, it took TikTok nine months after its launch to reach 100 million users and Instagram 2.5 years.
4. Tech 3.23 Standard Deviation Over 50Day….Most Since 2004
Bespoke Investment Group Again, Tech has led the way higher with a sharp move this week. The sector is now extremely overbought, trading 3.23 standard deviations above its 50-DMA; the fifth most overbought reading on record. Since 1990, there have only been a handful of times in which the S&P 500 Tech sector has traded at least 3 standard deviations overbought, with the most recent being roughly six years ago. But to find the last time the sector was as extended as it is today, you’d have to go all the way back to early 2004!
9. Immigrants are Record Share of Workforce-3.4% Unemployment
MoneyWatch Aimee PicchiThe share of immigrants in the workforce rose to 18.1% last year, an increase from 17.4% in 2021, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in a recent report.
Employees who were born outside the U.S. had a lower jobless rate last year than native-born workers, the BLS said. Foreign-born workers had an unemployment rate of 3.4% in 2022, compared with 3.7% for people born in the U.S., it noted.
The biggest difference was among men, with about 77% of immigrant male workers over the age of 16 in the workforce, compared with 66% of those born in America, the analysis found.
He was one of the 334 people assigned to the USS Arizona who survived the 1941 attack on Pearl Harbor.
Lou Conter was 20 years old when the warship he was on—the USS Arizona—was bombed by Japanese forces at Pearl Harbor in 1941.
Now, at 101, he’s the last known survivor of the USS Arizona. He escaped the burning wreckage and helped crewmates to safety. Just don’t call him a hero.
“I consider the heroes the ones that gave their lives, that never came home to their families,” he said. “They’re the real heroes.”
The USS Arizona’s bombing was the deadliest of the attacks that day, killing 1,117 people. It accounted for nearly half of the 2,403 who died during Pearl Harbor. Conter was one of the 334 people assigned to the USS Arizona who survived.
He became the last known survivor in April, after his former crewmate Ken Potts died at 102 years old.
The warship’s ammunition storage exploded during the bombings. The USS Arizona was so badly damaged that it was left to sink instead of being repaired. Its ruins are still underwater and viewable from the USS Arizona Memorial, which was built to hover over the warship.
Conter helped pull crewmates out of the burning ship.
“As we guided these men to safety, more often than not, their burned skin would come off on our hands,” Conter wrote in his 2021 book, “The Lou Conter Story.”
He often wondered why he made it out of the USS Arizona alive.
“God didn’t want you to go that time,” he said he told himself. “There’s a lot more for you to do for the country.”
A month after Pearl Harbor, Conter went to flight school. Working 12- to 14-hour days kept his mind off the death and destruction he saw on the USS Arizona.
“It helped out a lot to not think about it,” he said.
He got his pilot wings in November 1942, he said, and was part of a team that flew Black Cat aircraft overnight doing bomb runs in the South Pacific. He said he was shot down twice, once in September 1943 and a second time three months later. Both times, he used a lifeboat to get to shore.
After World War II ended, he said he returned to California and signed up for the reserves. In the early 1950s, he served again in the Korean War.
Conter retired from the Navy in 1967 as a lieutenant commander. He became a real-estate developer in California, where he still lives.
As the number of the USS Arizona survivors dwindled to about 30, they would get together, Conter said. The group got smaller through the years, from 13 to five and then to two.
“Now I’m the only one still living,” he said.
Conter said he didn’t know Potts when they were on the USS Arizona, but they became friends decades later. He talked to Potts on the phone every three weeks, asking him how he was doing and whether he was eating well. “Keep your spirits up,” Conter would say.
He is now on a new mission: Go back to Pearl Harbor this December.
It has been about four years since Conter has been to the annual remembrance. His doctor had forbidden him from taking the nine hours of flights from his home in Grass Valley, Calif., to Hawaii.
5. Get Ready for a Flood of Investment Products Around AI
New ETF uses artificial intelligence to time the market
The fourth ETF from upstart Qraft will test the limits of AI by going in and out of the market based on what the data say.
By Jeff Benjamin Can artificial intelligence accurately time the stock market? The developers behind a new ETF from Qraft Technologies believe it can, and that’s the premise of the Qraft AI U.S. Large Cap Dynamic Beta and Income ETF (AIDB).
“We believe the application of AI in actively managed funds transcends the limitations of the human mind, allowing for potentially better risk management and investment decision making,” said Marcus Kim, Qraft founder and chief executive.
“This is an especially relevant potential benefit for investors in times of market distress when emotions and biases are heightened,” Kim said. “We’ve introduced AIDB to extend these benefits to investors seeking dynamic equity exposure amid global market volatility by anchoring this fund’s strategy to our time-tested AI risk prediction model.”
The ETF, which starts trading Wednesday, joins three other AI-enabled Qraft funds. The difference between those funds and the latest launch is the ability to move in and out of the market in varying degrees based on what the AI data is forecasting.
Francis Geeseok Oh, CEO of Qraft’s Asia-Pacific business unit, said the AI program, which considers more than 70 macro and market data sets, correctly predicted the market downturn in March 2020 leading into the Covid pandemic, as well as the downturn following the market peak in November 2021.
“We’re using AI to predict downside risk,” he said.
The ETF, which has an expense ratio of 70 basis points, has a potential range from being fully invested in a large-cap stock index all the way to being 100% in cash.
The current outlook, according to Oh, “doesn’t see much downside risk so it is suggesting participating 100%, despite the debt ceiling debate.”
The idea of using AI to time the market will likely appeal to some investors and at least be closely watched by financial advisors, said Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi.
“Advisors are increasingly looking to tap into artificial intelligence to support investment needs,” he said. “This new ETF taps into the technology to support asset allocation decisions, shifting from equities to cash.”
Rosenbluth pointed out that Qraft’s largest ETF, the $10.7 million Qraft AI-Enhanced Large Cap Equity Momentum (AMOM), is up 9.1% this year. That is much stronger performance than the higher-profile $9.2 billion iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MYUM), which is down 3.9% over the same period.
Eric Balchunas, ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, described AI as “a huge trend,” but still a long way from being able to generate positive investment returns all the time.
“We’re pretty bullish overall on AI but the challenge is it’s an evolution of smart beta, which is an evolution of active management,and in that way, it faces the same hurdles as human managers,” he said.
Balchunas cited as an example the $107 million AI Powered Equity ETF (AIEQ), an actively managed fund powered by IBM Watson. Not only is the fund up just 3% this year, but its annual turnover rate hovers around 1,700%. That turnover rate compares to 3% for the Vanguard Total Market ETF (VTI).
The new Qraft ETF is shooting for a turnover rate of between 100% and 200%, according to Oh.
“If a computer has machine learning, maybe it will teach itself to trade less,” Balchunas said. “But the more you trade, it just becomes another cost you have to overcome.”
The other challenge Balchunas sees with the new Qraft ETF is the fact it’s offering active management in the large-cap equity space.
“Most advisers are dead set on passive when it comes to large-cap stocks, and it will be really tough to dislodge passive management,” he said.
“I’m expecting a wave of AI-related ETFs to hit the market as issuers seek to capitalize on what’s clearly a hot topic right now,” he said. “I would equate this to the slew of crypto-related ETFs that launched over the past several years. The use of artificial intelligence in the investment process carries some cachet and investors will begin seeing this term pop up everywhere.”
However, Geraci added, “the jury is still out on whether investors will actually benefit from the growing use of AI by asset managers. AI-powered ETFs sound great in theory, but the proof will be in the performance.”
I’ve been asked by many readers and some clients for my thoughts on the economy and recession.
As I am typing this, I’m thinking about how much ink I should be spilling on writing about the recession and how much time we, as investors, should be allocating to thinking and worrying about it.
Firstly, our ability to predict it is very limited – the economy is a complex system and thus incredibly difficult to forecast. Don’t believe me? The Federal Reserve employs a few hundred PhDs who stare at economic data 24/7 and they have yet to get it right, even once.
Secondly, recessions are not a death sentence to the economy but a natural, transitory phase.
This brings me to the third and most important observation: Time is the currency of life, and attention is how we choose to allocate this currency. As an investor, I can spend most of my day fidgeting, spending my time trying to predict the unpredictable and invest as if, at some point (I don’t know when), our portfolio will encounter a recession. Yes, earnings of some businesses will temporarily decline and then come back. Their stock prices may decline as well. But the value of the businesses, if we have done our analysis right, will not really change much. Recession – a temporary decline of cash flows – is a tiny blip in the stream of discounted cash flows.
There are three versions of ourselves: what people think of us, what we think of ourselves, and who we actually are. There is a saying, “Don’t tell me what you care about, show me how you spend your time.” We are at peace when who we think we are and who we actually are largely overlap. We are even more at peace if the two overlap in the version we’d like to be. We cannot really control what others think of us. The only thing we can do is to behave according to our values; but again, we should not tie our happiness to something we cannot control.
If you want to discover who you truly are, look at how you spend your time. If you are telling everyone and yourself, “I am a long-term investor,” but your daily attention is preoccupied with predicting and trying to avoid the next recession, then something has to change.
By the way, the above applies to many parts of our lives.
The latest forecasts from Vanguard, released Monday, aren’t as bullish. The indexing giant is expecting average annual gains over the next decade from U.S. equities between 4.1% and 6.1%, and inflation between 2% and 3%, meaning that the real gain for stocks could be as low as 1.1%.
Vanguard is forecasting annual returns from Treasury bonds to be 3.3% to 4.3% per year, which is not dissimilar from the inflation-adjusted performance over the last 20 years of 1.4%.
Jack Ablin Cheap Yen: The currency is remarkably cheap when gauged against the dollar. Purchasing power parity, one of our favorite measures of a currency’s relative value, compares the purchase cost of a similar basket of goods in both countries with each corresponding currency. On that measure, the Yenis just off the cheapest level it’s been relative to the dollar in its history. We expect incrementally tighter monetary policy by the Bank of Japan will continue to boost the Yen. Meanwhile, a cheap Yen offers Japanese exporters an enormous cost advantage, as any revenue generated abroad will translate to stronger Yen-based profits at home.
5. Pimco, BlackRock Call End to Era of Stable Borrowing Costs
by Michael Mackenzie, Liz Capo McCormick, Bond-market titans BlackRock Inc., Pacific Investment Management Co., and Vanguard Group Inc. are warning that recent violent swings in US Treasuries are only the beginning of a new era of volatility that’s here to stay until central banks conquer inflation.
The e-sports world, which was booming beforethe pandemic kicked the industry into overdrive, is beginning to slow down.
As reported by the NYTimes, owners of e-sports teams — who assemble a roster of talent similar to traditional sports teams — are looking for an exit. Expensive player contracts and waning viewership for some of the industry’s flagship competitions are leaving owners on the hook for major losses.
Viewership figures for the League Championship Series, the largest e-sports league in the US that sees gamers compete in League of Legends, have fallen. Data from Esports Charts reveals that fans tuned in for nearly 15 millionhours of the 2023 spring season — a staggering number, but one that was down 13% on last year, down 32% on 2021, and less than half of the 33mhours watched in 2017. The season-ending championship event for the game Rainbow Six Siege, known as the Six Invitational, has also seen 2 years of viewership decline, and the same is true of many other games.
Even the highly popular video-game streaming site, Twitch, is now showing signs of stagnation. The total number of hours watched on Twitch peaked two years ago, and has fallen in most months since — though more than 1,700 millionhours of content is still consumed every month on the platform.
Boss mode
A significant challenge for e-sports is the misalignment of incentives between team owners, star playersand game publishers. Unlike traditional sports leagues, which secure lucrative broadcast deals, content in e-sports is primarily watched for free on YouTubeand Twitch, platforms where individual players distribute their own content. Game publishers also have competing incentives. They maychoose to invest in competitions, but probably only if they see the event generating more sales or subscriptions. The same goes for rule or format changes which may engage a casual player base — but aren’t necessarilythe best for the accompanying e-sports.
8. JPMorgan Takes Second Place to Microsoft in Carbon Removal Credits.
WSJ The biggest U.S. bank is making one of the biggest bets ever to remove carbon from the atmosphere as a way to fight climate change.
JPMorgan ChaseJPM -1.08%decrease; red down pointing triangle has agreed to invest more than $200 million to purchase credits from several companies in the nascent industry, company officials said. The money and JPMorgan’s endorsement are a boost to businesses that have removed only small amounts of carbon so far.
JPMorgan is making the purchases to neutralize the bank’s environmental footprint. It is also attempting to score new business by becoming a leader in a burgeoning clean-energy industry. The bank helped carbon removal startup Climeworks raise $650 million from investors last year and has fielded questions from big corporate clients about carbon removal.
It’s graduation season, which means many parents will observe a sacred rite of passage: dispensing terrible life advice to their kids.
Mom and Dad mean well. But the class of 2023 will enter a job market during one of the worst periods of uncertainty since the 2008 financial crisis.
I’ve endured similar crises, from growing up in poverty, to dropping out of high school to providing care for my disabled mother, to holding down two jobs while earning my college and law degrees.
Throughout my trials and my journey to becoming a self-made millionaire, bestselling author, CEO and investor, the one key to thriving was to not play it safe.
Here’s the worst and most outdated advice young people should ignore, and what to do instead:
1. “You need a fallback plan.”
A Wharton study found that just thinking about a backup plan can significantly reduce the likelihood of Plan A from happening, along with the motivation to even try.
There are only a handful of things you can break in your 20s that you can’t fix in your 30s. The only way you’ll have a shot at being the next Taylor Swift is to believe that you will be, and to not worry about what happens if you fall short.
Trust your capacity and agency to figure things out if Plan A doesn’t work.
2. “Cut down your screen time.”
Screens are the future of work. Playing video games for 10 hours straight might not help, but you can learn all sorts of lucrative new skills online.
If you want to start a side hustle, write a business plan, launch a website or market a product or service, the right resources are out there, and often at low or no cost at all.
3. “Don’t sweat the small stuff.”
Partially untrue. While crippling anxiety should be addressed, not all anxiety is problematic. In fact, studies show that the most successful entrepreneurs harness anxiety and make it work for them.
They maintain what’s called a state of “optimal anxiety:” the balance between having enough anxiety to catalyze focus and improve performance but not so much as to inhibit excellence.
4. “Go work at a big, stable company.”
It used to be sage advice to start your career at giants like Facebook, Google, Lyft, Netflix and Disney. But even companies that once promised 30-year careers are now facing massive layoffs.
Instead of going with a big name, go for the right role. Ensure that your interests and skills line up with the position you want, even if it’s at a small startup or midsize company.
Even better, use your skills and passion to start a business. It may sound crazy, but with a week of intense focus, you could use artificial intelligence to launch a business earning $10,000 a month. And then you won’t have to worry about layoffs.
5. “Buy a house and settle down.”
Lastly, the most important piece of advice every young person should know: Cash is king.
Save cash and preserve as much liquidity as possible. If it means renting or living at home, that’s fine. The housing market is due for a big correction that may take years to unwind.
And in a high inflationary environment, saving cash is more important than piling on debt. Credit card debt among people between 18 and 25 years old is also at the highest rate compared to any other age demographic, so be more cautious with excessive spending.
Bloomberg Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates China’s total government debt is about $23 trillion, a figure that includes the hidden borrowing of thousands of financing companies set up by provinces and cities.
While the chance of a municipal default in China is relatively low given Beijing’s implicit guarantee on the debt, the bigger worry is that local governments will have to make painful spending cuts or divert money away from growth-boosting projects to continue repaying their debt. At stake for Xi is his ambition of doubling income levels by 2035 while reducing the gap between rich and poor, which is key for social stability as he seeks to rule the Communist Party for potentially the next decade or more.
8. Gallup Poll of Americans on Best Long-Term Investments
A Wealth of Common Sense Ben Carlson Each year Gallup performs a survey that asks a group of Americans what the best long-term investment is among the following options:
Want to make choices easier? Facing too many options creates unnecessary stress. Kevin Bennett Ph.D.
KEY POINTS
People should give themselves and others limited options when making decisions.
It might be less adventurous, but it helps to stick with what one knows and what has worked in the past.
Avoid regret by not obsessing so much over a decision that could turn out wrong.
Expect a series of follow-up questions when you ask the paint specialist for a can of green at your favorite hardware store: “Is this for interior or exterior?” “What material is the wall surface?” and “What shade of green?” So many choices! There are light green, dark green, lime, emerald, and olive, just to name a few. Seems like good business to offer so many options, right?
In the world of decorating, this may be so, but not everything in life is better with more choices. Here are three ways to overcome the anxiety of choice overload.
1. Minimize the options.
You want the latest technology, but there are so many options. You want the most delicious plates on a menu, but there are at least 20 entrees that look good to you. What about a movie tonight? OK, but there are so many apps for streaming that it’s hard to know where to begin.
Titan of industry Henry Ford once boasted that the customer could have a car painted any color as long as it was black.* The automotive industry has changed quite a bit since, but this was standard in the 1920s. It seems that previous generations faced fewer consumer product choices across the board. Television came of age in the 1950s at a time when viewers had a choice of three or four stations. That’s it. Because so many products and services were localized at the time, consumers had regular access to just one or two newspapers and a couple of clothing, book, and grocery stores. Options were even more scarce back in the distant ancestral past.
What to do? If your family wants to go out to eat and cannot decide between the various combinations of cuisines and specific restaurants, you can give them a list of limited options from which to choose. Essentially, you want to clear a path for them so they can manage the mental computations necessary to decide. Try this: We all want to go out to eat tonight, so let’s pick between restaurants A, B, and C. It’s much easier to manage a discussion about the pros and cons of three eateries vs. 37.
Making a decision by yourself? The strategy remains the same for a solo choice. Find a way to reduce the choice to two or three randomly selected options. For example, if you are putting together a takeout order, promise yourself you will pick from the first two restaurants you see on a delivery app, or that appear at the top of a Google search.
This is a practical parenting tip as well. Lay out three outfits on the bed for your 5-year-old and ask them to pick one. They will enjoy the autonomy that comes with making a decision, and it is good for healthy development.
2. Stick with what you know.
Choice overload, in the extreme, leads to analysis paralysis. When the number of options available pushes up against our limited cognitive resources, something has to give. Either we make poor decisions because we cannot possibly process all the new information adequately, we give up due to fatigue and decide blindly, or we simply feel overwhelmed and incapable of deciding. A time traveler stepping into today’s world from the distant past might be paralyzed by the dizzying array of sizes, colors, and models of everything. A world filled with so many choices has given rise to the concept of analysis paralysis.
Analysis paralysis refers to the state of overthinking or excessive deliberation that hinders decision-making. It occurs when individuals become so overwhelmed by the abundance of options or information that they struggle to make a choice or take action. Don’t be afraid to put the decision on pause and sleep on it. When you resume after a good night’s sleep, let your refreshed brain guide you to a more confident decision.
What to do? Stick with what you know. Good habits are shaped when dopamine and other reward-associated neurotransmitters in the brain see the activity as a positive one. The net effect, psychologically, is that the consistent choices you make over time are viewed as good ones by you. In other words, keep doing what you are doing because it’s working. In your food app, browse through the favorites section to help make your picks. Of course, there is an argument to be made for trying new things and stepping out of your comfort zone, etc., but we’ll save that topic for another day.
3. Don’t obsess over the wrong decision.
Regret is an unpleasant emotional state that features sadness and disappointment about negative outcomes or opportunity loss. Sometimes we feel regret after a voluntary action (an “act of commission” ): for example, breaking up with your boyfriend only to look back sadly on your choices years later. An “act of omission,” on the other hand, produces regret because we missed a chance when we should have taken it (e.g., talking to an attractive person, going skydiving, taking an extra week of vacation, etc.).
Intriguing laboratory data reveals that among bad outcomes, people regret acts of commission more than acts of omission. Most of us would feel distressed over losing out on a lottery jackpot after we had changed our numbers from the winning combination to some other pick. This would sting more than just losing on our first pick of numbers.
What to do? Don’t waver. Stick with your first choice, and once you’ve decided, commit to your decision. Do you really want to spend all that time and effort reanalyzing and going back and forth?
* Henry Ford’s statement, “Any customer can have a car painted any color that he wants so long as it is black,” was made at a sales meeting. In his book My Life and Work (1922), he followed up with an observation, “I cannot say that anyone agreed with me.”
1. Apple is Worth More than the Entire U.S. Small Cap Stock Index.
Barrons–But at some point in the past couple of weeks, depending on data providers, Apple’s market capitalization, at $2.76 trillion, topped the combined market cap of the entire Russell 2000RUT–0.62% index of small-cap stocks. And it gets worse. Today’s five biggest stocks—Apple, Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet(GOOGL), Amazon.com (AMZN), and Nvidia (NVDA)—have a combined market cap of about $8.7 trillion, almost 25% of the S&P 500 cap and about 3.2 times the $2.7 trillion Russell cap. That, says Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street’s U.S. SPDR exchange-traded fund business, is now larger than the five biggest stocks were relative to the Russell 2000 at the peak of the dot-com boom in 1999 and 2000.
9. Largest Endowments in World Dominated by U.S. Universities.
The Largest Endowment Funds The largest endowment funds can be compared on a grand economic scale, in terms of assets.
To put it all into perspective, the largest 50 endowment funds represent over a trillion dollars in assets. Or for a more singular example, look at Harvard’s fund, which has an endowment greater than the entire GDP of countries like Serbia, Bolivia, or Slovenia.
Here’s how the top 50 rank.
Rank
Endowment Fund
Total Assets
Region
1
Ensign Peak Advisors, Inc
$124,000,000,000
North America
2
Japan Science and Technology Agency
$80,700,000,000
Asia
3
Stanford University
$75,143,751,000
North America
4
Harvard Management Company
$72,781,329,000
North America
5
Yale University
$56,223,259,000
North America
6
Princeton University
$44,460,038,000
North America
7
MIT Investment Management Company
$42,526,492,000
North America
8
Duke University
$30,385,835,000
North America
9
New York University
$27,840,535,000
North America
10
Columbia University in the City of New York
$24,698,782,000
North America
11
University of Notre Dame
$24,599,541,000
North America
12
KAUST Investment Management Company
$23,500,000,000
Middle East
13
Emory University
$20,458,905,000
North America
14
Johns Hopkins University
$18,037,751,000
North America
15
Church Pension Fund
$17,773,649,171
North America
16
University of Chicago
$17,276,136,000
North America
17
Ohio State University
$16,006,851,000
North America
18
Northwestern University
$15,855,683,000
North America
19
Washington University in St Louis
$15,103,569,000
North America
20
Penn State University, Office of Investment Management
$15,017,272,000
North America
21
Notre Dame of Maryland University
$14,938,580,253
North America
22
Cornell University
$14,850,618,000
North America
23
University of Southern California
$14,495,427,000
North America
24
Vanderbilt University
$13,883,495,000
North America
25
University of Virginia Investment Management Compnay
$13,811,076,000
North America
26
University of Tokyo
$13,285,270,000
Asia
27
National University of Singapore
$12,626,100,000
Asia
28
UNC Management Company
$11,986,857,000
North America
29
University of Michigan Office of Investments
$11,900,000,000
North America
30
General Authority of Awqaf
$11,238,371,192
Middle East
31
Church Commissioners for England
$11,197,700,000
Europe
32
J.Paul Getty Trust
$10,778,927,000
North America
33
Trinity Wall Street Episcopal Church
$9,932,419,000
North America
34
Unitersity of Utah
$9,827,602,000
North America
35
Brown University
$9,793,108,000
North America
36
Kamehameha Schools
$9,326,013,000
North America
37
Dartmouth College
$9,078,340,000
North America
38
Hong Kong Jockey Club
$8,603,580,000
Asia
39
Rice University
$8,424,555,000
North America
40
The Leona M. and Harry B. Helmsley Charitable Trust
$8,313,588,000
North America
41
University of Pittsburgh
$8,011,856,000
North America
42
Nature Conservancy
$7,870,380,000
North America
43
University of Toronto Asset Management Corporation
Currencies of smaller economies that have not traditionally figured prominently in reserve portfolios but offer high returns and stability— like the Australian and Canadian dollars, Swedish krona and South Korean won—account for three quarters of the shift from dollars.
There is good reason that other currencies do not yet qualify. They are either too small (Switzerland), operate under totalitarian regimes (Russia and China), or allow for protectionism (India).
Finally, a reserve currency needs to be market-based, free-floating and, most important, stable. That rules out cryptocurrencies that are prone to wild swings and live outside the regulatory system.
Dollar and Euro 80% of Reserves …other currencies too small.
We are strongly of the view that AI will change the world. The things we’ve seen from chatGPT and read about with regards to the technology suggests its going to be a game changer. ChatGPT was launched on November 30th last year and as you can see this closely coincides with the surge in the ten US mega-cap tech stocks.
Stocks associated with AI such as Nvidia (+108% YTD), and Microsoft (+30.6% YTD) have surged and have taken tech along for the ride (lower yields have helped a bit too). These ten are up +33.3% YTD and have helped the S&P 500 be +8.0% YTD so far. (Price only moves).
Many people have asked why equities aren’t pricing in a recession if people like us think it’s so likely. The main answer is two-fold; a) Equities tend not to fall much (if at all) in advance of a recession, but fall sharply in the first half of its arrival, and b) mega-cap tech has such a dominant weight in the S&P 500 that it can help the index march to a different beat.
However if you strip out these 10 mega-cap tech stocks, the “S&P 490” is actually -0.5% YTD. So those ten mega cap tech stocks have increased the return of the index by 8.5pp so far this year and have turned a potentially disappointing year into a very decent one for trackers and those who simply view the S&P 500 as a bellwether for global risk.
You could read this two ways; 1) that the “real” economy stocks are treading water and reflecting the risk of tougher times ahead, or 2) that the surge in tech is helping keep financial conditions from tightening as much as it should be on a cyclical basis.
If you believe the second point could it help avert a recession?
Doubtful in our eyes but it is something to keep an eye on. As discussed at the top we are very enthusiastic on the impact of AI on productivity in the years ahead. However this is likely to play out comfortably beyond the immediate cycle.
Next week my Thematic Research team are publishing an AI themed week with daily pieces on the subject from different angles. So please keep an eye out for that. I’ll highlight the first piece in my CoTD on Monday assuming the robots haven’t replaced me by then.
5. Commercial Real Estate Debt 2023 vs. Residential Real Estate Debt 2008
The stock of CRE debt outstanding today is significantly smaller than the stock of residential mortgage debt outstanding in 2007, see chart below. As a result, this recession will be milder than in 2008, but it will likely be longer because the required correction in CRE prices will be spread out over a longer period.
Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, PartnerApollo Global Management
Dave Lutz at Jones Trading HI JACK– New York apartment hunters are facing higher rents than ever before and having a hard time finding bargains anywhere. The median rents on new leases in Manhattan, Brooklyn and northwest Queens reached records in April as confident landlords pushed up prices and cut down on incentives, according to a report by appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate. In Manhattan, the median rent hit $4,241, 8.1% higher than a year ago and $66 more than the previous record set in March, the data show. The Brooklyn median of $3,500 was up almost 15% from last year, while the median in the section of Queens that includes Astoria and Long Island City rose nearly 13% from a year earlier to $3,525.
Both common sense and research tell us that when you’re struggling financially, making more money leads to big boosts in happiness. The endless stress of poverty is, by all accounts, misery inducing (and it messes with your functional intelligence). But if you’re comfortable — previous research suggested above a threshold of $75,000 a year in income — more money seems to help only some people and some measures of happiness.
All of which makes for fascinating science. But practically, where does that leave the average entrepreneur who wants to wring as much joy as possible out of every hard-earned dollar? While the science of whether earning more will make you happier may be in flux, recent research does offer simple guidance on how best to spend the money you do have to maximize your well-being.
Is it experiences, or stuff?
The most common answer to the question of how to spend your money for the most happiness is to focus on experiences rather than stuff. The thinking goes that we tend to get used to upgrades to our possessions–a bigger TV, a fancier car–fairly quickly, which means the thrill wears off quickly, too. Experiences like trips, classes, and activities with loved ones, however, leave us with memories that we can savor for the rest of our years.
Not only that, but planning experiences brings us joy even before they happen. “The anticipatory period [for experiential purchases] tends to be more pleasant … less tinged with impatience relative to future material purchases we’re planning on making,” researcher Amit Kumar said at a symposium on the relationship between money and happiness. “Those waiting for an experience tended to be in a better mood and better behaved than those waiting for a material good.”
There’s nothing wrong with this line of thinking. Tons of evidence confirms that focusing on material wealth and possessions tends to leave people feeling empty and unsatisfied. Experiences are the better bet compared with more stuff. But a new study adds an additional wrinkle to the most up-to-date scientific advice on spending your money to maximize happiness.
Actually, it’s all about goals.
For the new study — recently published in the British Journal of Social Psychology — researchers asked 452 participants to describe a recent sizable purchase, excluding everyday expenses like bills. They were also asked to rate how much the purchase added to their life satisfaction and happiness and how closely it aligned with both their extrinsic goals (those that have to do with other people’s expectations) and intrinsic goals (those we chase for our own reasons).
“The researchers found that, the more a purchase reflected people’s intrinsic goals, the more they thought it improved their well-being. In other words, the greatest well-being occurred when people spent money on something that was personally important to them,” reports UC Berkeley’s Greater Good Science Center.
Which isn’t to say the material goods versus experience factor was irrelevant. Experiences brought more joy than stuff. But bringing yourself one step closer to what you really want in life mattered the most.
This finding has a very practical takeaway, according to one of the study authors, University of Cardiff psychologist Olaya Moldes Andrés. “She recommends pausing to think about the reason for our purchase, and what use we will get out of it. If we’re spending money on trying to impress people or project a certain image (in other words, extrinsic goals), the purchase may not actually be worth it,” sums up Greater Good.
So, next time you find yourself in the pleasant position of having some extra cash to spend, take a minute to reflect on your goals. Figuring out what you want in life and how you can deploy your money to get you closer to that is the way to get the most happiness bang for your buck, according to the latest science.
WE O U $17T The New York Fed recently released its first-quarter report on household debt, revealing that American households now owe someone a staggering $17 trillion. The majority of that is tied up in home mortgages, with the remainder split across student loans, car loans and credit cards — with the latter (and smallest) of those 3 categories particularly striking.
Credit card debt remained at a record level of $986 billion, defying the usual trend of post-holiday debt reduction. Indeed, this is the first time in over two decades that credit card balances haven’t decreased in the first quarter — a period when many cut back on spending after the holiday period of October-December.All told, credit card debt rose 17% in the last 12 months, a potential sign that consumers are turning to credit cards to cope with mounting daily expenses as inflation continues to bite. Another concern is the rising delinquency rate, with ~4.6% of credit card debt transitioning into “serious delinquency” — where debt remains unpaid for 90+ days — up from just 3% during the same period last year.
Save to spendThis current situation stands in contrast to the pandemic, when US consumers, buoyed by stimulus checks and lockdown savings, managed to pay off $160bn of credit card debt between the end of 2019 and March 2021.
I mentioned a few weeks ago how much better Europe‘s return to office rate was doing versus ours: 90+% RTO, while the USA is ~60%. I cannot speak to Europe, but that U.S. number is an average across all regions, industries, age groups, etc. In some parts of the country, it is appreciably higher or lower; as you might imagine, it varies greatly.
The biggest drag? Big cities. As Torsten Slok’s chart above shows, the biggest metropolitan employment centers run lower than the national average — which is about 50%. The range is surprisingly wide, from mids-30s to upper-60s: Austin,1 Texas is in the mid-60% range; San Jose is in the high-30%; San Francisco, D.C., and Philidelphia are low-40%. New York City, the biggest US metro center, is one of the laggards with an office occupancy rate of 46%.
Hybrid work models are now well-established. This leads Slok to ask a fascinating question: Is 50% the new permanent level in most metropolitan areas for RTO?
Scott Galloway According to the U.S. Surgeon General (an impressive man who makes you feel good about America): “Evidence across scientific disciplines converges on the conclusion that socially connected people live longer.” Social isolation is associated with a 29% increase in the risk of heart disease and a 32% increase in the risk of stroke. Put another way: loneliness kills.
2. Fed Fund Rate Greater than CPI….This May Signal the End of Rate Hikes.
From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading Ryan notes Another clue the Fed is likely done hiking? Fed funds rate > CPI YoY – Each of the previous 8 cycles could stop once this was in place.
9. Drug Enforcement Administration Announces the Seizure of Over 379 million Deadly Doses of Fentanyl in 2022
WASHINGTON – As 2022 comes to an end, the Drug Enforcement Administration is announcing the seizure of over 50.6 million fentanyl-laced, fake prescription pills and more than 10,000 pounds of fentanyl powder this calendar year. The DEA Laboratory estimates that these seizures represent more than 379 million potentially deadly doses of fentanyl.
Fentanyl is the deadliest drug threat facing this country. It is a highly addictive man-made opioid that is 50 times more potent than heroin. Just two milligrams of fentanyl, the small amount that fits on the tip of a pencil, is considered a potentially deadly dose.
“In the past year, the men and women of the DEA have relentlessly worked to seize over 379 million deadly doses of fentanyl from communities across the country,” said Administrator Anne Milgram. “These seizures – enough deadly doses of fentanyl to kill every American – reflect DEA’s unwavering commitment to protect Americans and save lives, by tenaciously pursuing those responsible for the trafficking of fentanyl across the United States. DEA’s top operational priority is to defeat the two Mexican drug cartels—the Sinaloa and Jalisco (CJNG) Cartels—that are primarily responsible for the fentanyl that is killing Americans today.”
Most of the fentanyl trafficked by the Sinaloa and CJNG Cartels is being mass-produced at secret factories in Mexico with chemicals sourced largely from China. In 2021, the DEA issued a Public Safety Alert on the widespread drug trafficking of fentanyl in the form of fentanyl-laced, fake prescription pills. These pills are made to look identical to real prescription medications—including OxyContin®, Percocet®, and Xanax®—but only contain filler and fentanyl and are often deadly. Fake pills are readily found on social media. No pharmaceutical pill bought on social media is safe. The only safe medications are ones prescribed directly to you by a trusted medical professional and dispensed by a licensed pharmacist.
Just last month, DEA alerted the public to a sharp nationwide increase in the lethality of fentanyl-laced fake prescription pills. DEA laboratory testing in 2022 revealed that six out of ten fentanyl-laced, fake prescription pills contained a potentially lethal dose of fentanyl. This is an increase from DEA’s announcement in 2021 that four out of ten fentanyl-laced, fake prescription pills contain a potentially deadly dose.
In 2022, DEA seized more than double the amount of fentanyl-laced, fake prescription pills that it seized in 2021. DEA also seized nearly 131,000 pounds of methamphetamine, more than 4,300 pounds of heroin, and over 444,000 pounds of cocaine. DEA is now providing a regularly updated counter at http://www.dea.gov to track approximate amounts of fentanyl pills and fentanyl powder seized by DEA.
DEA has created a Faces of Fentanyl memorial to commemorate the lives lost from fentanyl poisoning. To submit a photo of a loved one lost to fentanyl, please send their name, age, and photograph to fentanylawareness@dea.gov, or post a photo and their name to social media using the hashtag #JustKNOW.
If you’ve ever had a goal (like wanting to lose 20 pounds or run a marathon), you probably already know that simply having the desire to accomplish these things is not enough. You must also be able to persist through obstacles and have the endurance to keep going in spite of difficulties faced.
These different elements or components are needed to get and stay motivated. Researchers have identified three major components of motivation: activation, persistence, and intensity.4
Activation is the decision to initiate a behavior. An example of activation would be enrolling in psychology courses in order to earn your degree.
Persistence is the continued effort toward a goal even though obstacles may exist. An example of persistence would be showing up for your psychology class even though you are tired from staying up late the night before.
Intensity is the concentration and vigor that goes into pursuing a goal.5 For example, one student might coast by without much effort (minimal intensity) while another student studies regularly, participates in classroom discussions, and takes advantage of research opportunities outside of class (greater intensity).
The degree of each of these components of motivation can impact whether you achieve your goal. Strong activation, for example, means that you are more likely to start pursuing a goal. Persistence and intensity will determine if you keep working toward that goal and how much effort you devote to reaching it.
Tips for Improving Your Motivation
All people experience fluctuations in their motivation and willpower. Sometimes you feel fired up and highly driven to reach your goals. Other times, you might feel listless or unsure of what you want or how to achieve it.
If you’re feeling low on motivation, there are steps you can take to help increase your drive. Some things you can do to develop or improve your motivation include:
Adjust your goals to focus on things that really matter to you. Focusing on things that are highly important to you will help push you through your challenges more than goals based on things that are low in importance.
If you’re tackling something that feels too big or too overwhelming, break it up into smaller, more manageable steps. Then, set your sights on achieving only the first step. Instead of trying to lose 50 pounds, for example, break this goal down into five-pound increments.
Improve your confidence. Research suggests that there is a connection between confidence and motivation.6 So, gaining more confidence in yourself and your skills can impact your ability to achieve your goals.
Remind yourself about what you’ve achieved in the past and where your strengths lie. This helps keep self-doubts from limiting your motivation.
If there are things you feel insecure about, try working on making improvements in those areas so you feel more skilled and capable.
There are a few things you should watch for that might hurt or inhibit your motivation levels. These include:
All-or-nothing thinking: If you think that you must be absolutely perfect when trying to reach your goal or there is no point in trying, one small slip-up or relapse can zap your motivation to keep pushing forward.
Believing in quick fixes: It’s easy to feel unmotivated if you can’t reach your goal immediately but reaching goals often takes time.
Thinking that one size fits all: Just because an approach or method worked for someone else does not mean that it will work for you. If you don’t feel motivated to pursue your goals, look for other things that will work better for you.
Motivation and Mental Health
Sometimes a persistent lack of motivation is tied to a mental health condition such as depression. Talk to your doctor if you are feeling symptoms of apathy and low mood that last longer than two weeks.
Theories of Motivation
Throughout history, psychologists have proposed different theories to explain what motivates human behavior. The following are some of the major theories of motivation.
Instincts
The instinct theory of motivation suggests that behaviors are motivated by instincts, which are fixed and inborn patterns of behavior.7 Psychologists such as William James, Sigmund Freud, and William McDougal have proposed several basic human drives that motivate behavior. They include biological instincts that are important for an organism’s survival—such as fear, cleanliness, and love.
Drives and Needs
Many behaviors such as eating, drinking, and sleeping are motivated by biology. We have a biological need for food, water, and sleep. Therefore, we are motivated to eat, drink, and sleep. The drive reduction theory of motivation suggests that people have these basic biological drives, and our behaviors are motivated by the need to fulfill these drives.8
Abraham Maslow’s hierarchy of needs is another motivation theory based on a desire to fulfill basic physiological needs. Once those needs are met, it expands to our other needs, such as those related to safety and security, social needs, self-esteem, and self-actualization.
Arousal Levels
The arousal theory of motivation suggests that people are motivated to engage in behaviors that help them maintain their optimal level of arousal.4 A person with low arousal needs might pursue relaxing activities such as reading a book, while those with high arousal needs might be motivated to engage in exciting, thrill-seeking behaviors such as motorcycle racing.
The Bottom Line
Psychologists have proposed many different theories of motivation. The reality is that there are numerous different forces that guide and direct our motivations.
Understanding motivation is important in many areas of life beyond psychology, from parenting to the workplace. You may want to set the best goals and establish the right reward systems to motivate others as well as to increase your own motivation.
Knowledge of motivating factors (and how to manipulate them) is used in marketing and other aspects of industrial psychology. It’s an area where there are many myths, and everyone can benefit from knowing what works with motivation and what doesn’t.
XLF still holding 200 week moving average …50week still above 200week
3. Howard Marks on Private Credit.
From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading OAKTREE WARNS– Howard Marks, the co-founder of $172bn investment group Oaktree Capital Management, has warned that the boom in private credit will soon be tested as higher interest rates and slower economic growth heap pressure on corporate America. The 77-year-old billionaire told the Financial Times that big asset managers had competed aggressively to lend to the largest private equity groups as money poured into their coffers in 2020and 2021, raising questions over the due diligence the funds conducted when they agreed to provide multibillion-dollar loans. “Did the managers make good credit decisions, ensuring an adequate margin of safety, or did they invest fast because they could accumulate more capital? We’ll see”
Data provider Preqin estimates the private credit market, which includes loans for corporate takeovers, has grown to about $1.5tn from roughly $440bn a decade ago. Fundraising has been brisk, eclipsing $150bn every year since 2019. But part of that influx of capital was lent when markets were on a seemingly unstoppable march higher — before the US Federal Reserve began aggressively raising interest rates. Competition among private lenders pushed borrowing costs down at the time.
4. International Breadth Stronger than U.S….75% of Names Above 200day.
5. U.S. Budget Deficit is Widest Ever Entering a Recession
Zerohedge The US’s budget deficit is currently running at 8% of GDP, wider than any other major country, and already significantly more than where it was prior to previous recessions.
6. Institutional Money Selling Stocks for 12 Months.
7. Chicago Office Space 22% Vacancy…Bad Quarter of Demand.
Bloomberg-Things aren’t looking up for the commercial real estate market, with the city’s office-vacancy rate reaching a record 22.4% in the first quarter. Even tech companies, once seen as a bright opportunity for Chicago’s future, are retrenching: Salesforce Inc. and Meta Platforms Inc. are giving up almost 240,000 square feet (22,300 square meters) of space. By
The great pandemic mortgage refinance boom is most definitely over, but the aftershock is still rippling through the housing market. Homeowners are holding up home sales, as their ultra-low prize is too precious to give up.
During the early days of coronavirus pandemic in 2020 and 2021, mortgage rates fell sharply, and millions of homeowners jumped at the opportunity to refinance. The 30-year mortgage fell down to 2.65% in early January of 2021, according to Freddie Mac dataFMCC, +2.11%.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York estimated that 14 million mortgages were refinanced during the “pandemic refinancing boom.”
The surge in refinancing was, in part, due to strong household balance sheets and an increased need for housing, the New York Fed said in a blog post published Monday. The average homeowner who refinanced saw their monthly payment drop by $220, the Fed said.The biggest share of mortgages that were refinanced originated from 2015 onwards, the NY Fed. said. Older mortgages, such as those originated before 2010, were the least likely to be refinanced.
Homeowners most likely to refinance their mortgage owed a balance of $400,000 to $500,000 on their mortgage, the NY Fed concluded. “The mortgage refinancing boom is over, but its impact will be seen for decades to come,” Andrew Haughwout, director of household and public policy research at the NY Fed, said in a statement.
How to feel lighter and more hopeful using these powerful, yet simple tools. Shonda Moralis MSW, LCSW
KEY POINTS
Cluttered minds can weigh people down and cause unnecessary stress.
Individuals can use simple practices to declutter and spring clean their minds.
It just takes a few minutes a day to create healthy, sustainable habits.
This time of year often brings thoughts of spring cleaning our homes—throwing open the windows, decluttering, and organizing. A fresh start to a new season feels light and hopeful.
It’s also the perfect time to spring clean our minds (and our lives in general) by taking stock and recommitting to our priorities.
Whether house or mind, attempting a massive overhaul all at once is not recommended—taking it one small step at a time is far more effective for sustainability and follow-through.
The following are some easy, fun tips to spruce up your life in manageable, bite-sized pieces:
Begin with your mindset.
Let go of thoughts that don’t serve you. We find evidence for what it is we focus on. If my mind is trained on what’snot going well, I will notice the negative more—and vice versa. We can habituate our minds to be on the lookout for the good stuff daily.
Be in the moment. We spend so much of our time in the past or in the future and miss out on what is happening right in front of us. Notice when you are worrying (the future) or rehashing (the past) and come back to what’s here now. (Meditation also helps train our minds to be more in the present moment.)
Do a daily brain dump. Get all of your to-do’s, worries, and thoughts down on paper first thing in the morning, or keep a notebook and pencil by your bed to jot down random thoughts when your mind is full late at night.
Do a digital or screen detox. Spend a weekend day or shorter block of time screen-free in order to make room for creative thought.
Surroundings
Where in your life could you use more organization? Even if you are a well-organized person, there is usually at least one area that can be streamlined—emails, finances, paperwork, the sock drawer—pick one. If you need some motivation, set a timer for 10 minutes or blast your favorite music.
Priorities
Reflect: After the upheaval of the past few years, what have you learned? What do you want to let go of, and what gets to stay? If you’ve acclimated to a slower pace or more downtime, you might keep one day on the weekend for unscheduled rest or fun.
Identify your top four values (what matters most to you—think nature, learning, community), and let them guide your actions and priorities. Knowing our top values helps keep our priorities and actions in check. If family is one of your top values, for example, each time you decide whether or not to take on a work project or say yes to a social engagement, ask yourself if you are allowing enough family time.
Energy
Track your energy: Notice your level of energy when engaged in various activities or tasks. Do you love to garden? You might feel relaxed, calm, and content. Carve out time for more of that (and less social media, which likely drains you). Does cooking dinner and deciding what to make tire you out? Meal plan, assign other family members to make dinner on certain nights, or order a meal subscription service. When possible, do more of what energizes you and less of what drains you. What can you add, delete, or delegate from your to-do list?
Get outside and get moving. Spring ushers in a renewed sense of energy. Moving our bodies helps calm our minds and opens up creative thought.
Cold water swimming is trending to boost energy and ward off depression. Cold bodies of water are decidedly not for me. I do, however, love to step outside in the morning with my cup of coffee, listen to the birds sing, and let the cold air wake me up, starting the day refreshed.
Start a new healthy habit. Be intentional about what habit you choose. What do you want to do and why? Knowing our why helps renew our motivation when it inevitably flags. I might, for example, begin stretching five minutes a day to increase flexibility, lessen stiffness, and prevent injuries, and it feels great!
Which one life spring cleaning tip will you experiment with today
Michèle Hecken is an Entrepreneurs’ Organization (EO) member in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. An ex-CEO, she is the founder of The Art of Offboarding, a proprietary leadership and operational methodology which she implements in Fortune 500 companies. She is also a public speaker who delivers keynotes and workshops for organizations across the world. We asked Michèle how she transformed her business to do what she loves on her own terms. Here’s what she shared:
Sound familiar to you? I know I’ve heard and grappled with these universal “truths” over the years, after starting a global translation company in my twenties and trying to grow it while raising two young children.
Eventually, I realized something that would change the course of my entire life: There was a way to build a successful business based almost entirely on what you love doing rather than what you think you should love doing.
I carved out a system to grow the business that served my family, my team, our customers, and myself. In 2019, it culminated in a high-seven-figure exit.
Here are the three paradigm shifts that form its foundation:
1. From “Delegating” to “Offboarding”
According to some, you should delegate to successfully grow a business. I’m here to tell you that this is not the solution but the problem. Why?
What happens when you delegate is a placebo effect. You feel good in the moment because you shuffled something off your desk. But then you do it again. And again.
What happens next? You get lost in the follow-up. The time you saved on executing the tasks is replaced with endless coordination of employee work.
Delegating simply shifts the kind of work you do. You still own the task. Eventually, you become more stressed, as delegation encourages micromanagement.
Offboarding is a game changer because it transfers task ownership–your employees own the entire outcome. Speaking from experience, this is an excellent way to train employees, increase their value to the business (and ensure they feel valued), and relax your grip. This also frees up your schedule, allowing you to pursue other goals.
2. From “Work-Life Balance” to “Life”
I’ve never met an entrepreneur who works optimally within a standard nine-to-five schedule. Some days we are in a deep state of flow and work 14 hours. On other days, we might struggle to get out of bed. At the same time, we build our businesses to give us the flexibility to be present for our non-work engagements whenever we want–trying to please everyone around us.
When you try and make everybody happy, all while keeping everything “balanced,” it becomes an impossible challenge.
The solution, something that I do when advising other entrepreneurs, is to reverse-engineer it all. Ask yourself:
· What do I want my life to look like?
· What is my ideal day?
· How does my flow work on that day?
· What kinds of freedoms do I want and need?
The goal isn’t to ensure burnout never happens again. Instead, it’s to optimize your life and business so that they align with your true self, your wants, and your needs.
3. From “Good to Great” to “Good to Happy”
Everyone wants to be happy in life–most of us prioritize happiness as a goal.
The happiest lives are those that are continually enriched with new knowledge, connections, and experiences. That means having the willingness to get out there, try new things, and make time for enjoyment every day. You can’t get to this point by feeling forced to fit in fun or relaxation time, nor by stagnating and stifling your growth.
One practice I’ve implemented, that has worked wonders, is treating every day like a “mini life” and living it on my terms. Am I allocating my time and energy where I want it to go? Am I enjoying my day to the fullest and achieving the goals I’ve set? Most of all, have I done things that brought me joy today?
If you can respond with a resounding “yes” to these questions every day, you can theoretically achieve an entire lifetime of happiness. Sounds much more realistic this way, doesn’t it?
Reframing paradigms and shifting away from what you’ve been told should make you successful is not easy. The opportunity to co-author a recently published book, Lead Like a Woman: Audacity has allowed me to reflect on just how profoundly I’ve subverted traditional expectations both in my business and in my life.
I believe the entrepreneurial dream needs to be reframed to include a joyful life in which you never have to give up happiness for the sake of your business. I know that with a few shifts in perspective, a clear methodology, and a remarkable support system, every entrepreneur can achieve that reality.
Bearish cross to downside…50day thru 200day to downside.
2. Comparing U.S. vs. International Stock Returns Since 1970
Ben Carlson Here are total returns by various periods of over- or underperformance for each going back to 1970:
Some investors have an easier time wrapping their heads around annualized returns so here are those figures as well:
U.S. stock had an unbelievable run coming out of the Great Financial Crisis but international stocks did far better at times in the 1970s, 1980s and early-2000s.
It’s also true that much of the outperformance has taken place during the latest cycle. From 1970-2012, the annual returns were basically dead even:
U.S. stocks +9.7%
International stocks +9.6%
All of the outperformance has essentially come since 2013.
Jack Ablin Cresset Real wage growth has been negative consistently since April 2021, implying that American households are falling behind as the cost of food, energy and other products and services are racing ahead of incomes. Corporate profits have had a similarly difficult time outpacing the inflation current. Since March 2021, cumulative profit growth has trailed inflation by nine percentage points.
Robinhood will soon allow customers to buy and sell stocks and ETFs overnight in extended trading hours.
Its 24 Hour Market will run Sunday through Friday starting at 8 p.m. ET, beginning this month.
Customers can place limit orders on 43 individual stocks and ETFs including Tesla and Apple.
Robinhood said 24-hour trading is coming to its platform as the company that was at the center of the meme-stock frenzy aims to accommodate time-strapped customers while pushing for wider change in trading operations.
A rollout of 24 Hour Market will begin May 16 to a “subset” of customers, followed by all customers getting access in June. Trading hours will be from 8 p.m. Eastern Time on Sunday to 8 p.m. Eastern on Friday.
“We’ve often heard from customers that it’s tough to find time for investing during regular market hours with work, family, and everything in between,” Robinhood said in a statement. “24 Hour Market lets customers invest when they want, on their schedule.”
The program will allow people to place limit orders to buy whole shares of Tesla, Amazon, Apple and 40 other of the most-traded individual stocks and exchange-traded funds, the company said.
Limit orders let investors buy or sell a security at a specific price versus market orders under which trades are made at the best available price. Limit orders could dial down the exposure for customers to large price swings that can occur after hours when trading volume is thinner than in regular market hours.
Regular hours of stock trading Monday through Friday begin at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time and end at 4 p.m. Eastern. So-called after-hours trade or extended hours are available at some brokerages, with trading running early as 4 a.m. Eastern and stretching to 8 p.m. Eastern.
“It’s the next step in evolving the market to how it should work, which is 24/7, and more like a piece of software rather than a brick-and-mortar institution that’s tied to U.S. East Coast working hours,” Robinhood’s Chief Executive Vlad Tenev told The Wall Street Journal.
Psychology Today Temma EhrenfeldThese tips can help at all ages, from high-school students to job-changers.
You need to study up. The tips that work for high school and college kids still apply, whether you’re a retiree learning for fun, adapting to meet challenges at a job, or boning up as part of a career switch.
Here are 14 ways to make learning go better. They may be especially helpful if you have ADHD or a low mood that limits your energy.
1. Take a little time to get into the right frame of mind.
A little time, not so much that you’ve used up all of your available time. Dance to an upbeat song for 10 minutes. If you’re distracted by chores that need doing, list them, then put the list away for later. If you’re completely obsessed with a distraction, be honest with yourself. But don’t just procrastinate. Decide exactly when you’ll do your studying and commit to being in the right frame of mind.
Be positive. Instead of thinking, “I don’t have enough time,” think, “I’m starting now.” Remember that discipline and focus are skills that you can build over time in small steps.
2. Find a quiet spot without distractions and return to it next time.
Think, “Where did I do well?” Look for the ideal situation, not just “good enough.” It might be as simple as choosing to sit up on a living room chair rather than lie down on the sofa to read. Bed probably isn’t the best place.
3. Bring what you need, but only what you need.
If you need a book, don’t forget it. But if you can leave your smartphone well out of reach, do so. Do you truly learn best while listening to music? If so, have your music and earphones, but otherwise, don’t have them handy.
4. Don’t multi-task.
You may think you’re an expert at watching a video with the information you need and scrolling through Instagram. However, evidence suggests that common sense applies: You have only so much working memory, and you’re taking some of it up on Instagram. Your multi-tasking means you won’t absorb and retain as much of the video.
5. Outline your notes. Make lists and fill them in.
Make outlines that work for you, even if they might be confusing to someone else. Use words that make sense to you, translating the words in material you may be reading. “Chunk” together the groups of words or facts or ideas that you feel belong in a group. The goal is to produce an outline that will help you—not someone else—remember the material.
Writing may work better than keyboarding into a laptop. There’s some evidence that using our fingers in that way helps us think. Read aloud an important sentence if you’re alone or mouth the words if you’re in a library. You may think it’s babyish to mouth or read aloud. Actually, poetry was the first way that human beings remembered stories, and we haven’t changed that much.
6. If you like memory devices, use them and get creative.
Make up a catchy rhyme to associate ideas and repeat it out loud. Make up a sentence. For example, “Never Ever Seem Worried,” is a way to remember “North, East, South, West.” “Every Good Boy Deserves Fun” helps music students remember the five notes of the treble clef, “E, G, B, D, F.”
If you don’t know if you like memory devices, try one out and see if it sticks. Then the next time you’re studying, you can try another one.
If you tend to be visual, take your time looking at the illustrations or photos in the book you’re reading to associate them with the information.
7. Practice.
If you’re taking a class and will be writing the answer to a surprise question on a test, make up a likely question and do the exercise of writing an answer with a timer on. Do it again.
Actually try to solve the sample problems in the materials you’re using; don’t just read the answers. Make up similar problems, try to solve them, and later on, at the end of a study period, find sources that can tell you whether your answers were correct. If you’re learning a new language, you might write out some questions and answers and show them to a native speaker at your next opportunity. Research suggests that an activity in which you generate a product or test yourself is more powerful than time spent consuming information—for example, reviewing notes.
8. Find buddies.
Some people like to work with a group of four or five other people who are at about their level. Quiz each other. Try to do as well as the person you most admire. Turn envy into a source of motivation rather than resentment.
9. Make a schedule you can stick to.
If you have any flexibility, notice the times of day when you’re sharpest and dedicate them to learning. If you’re studying at home on a weekend or work at home, take a warm morning shower to gear up for analytical work, advises biologist and body-clock expert Steve Kay. Get your studying or work done before lunch, especially if you’re an early riser. You’re likely to be most distractible from noon to 4 p.m.
Sticking to a schedule may seem like a burden, but you’ll appreciate the investment if you can avoid last-minute cramming. How many minutes you spend each time is less important than regularity.
9. Space it out.
Most work goes better if you divide it into realistic chunks. Try not to cram for an exam in one burst. The evidence against cramming is mixed, but the common-sense advice to plan ahead and proceed in a consistent way, spacing out your study time, does seem to be right.
10. Take breaks.
If you’re falling asleep while reading, you may have picked the wrong time of day to study. Consider a nap if you’re sleep-deprived and then get back to work.
If you’re losing focus, but not short of sleep, move. It’ll help you more than extra coffee and stoking yourself with sugar is a mistake. Stretch and walk to the other end of the library at least once an hour. Even better, go for a short jog.
Bouts of movement—typically 15 to 20 minutes at moderate intensity—can measurably boost your mood and cognitive performance. Even 10 minutescan make a difference. Take time to look out the window, especially if you have a view of trees or other greenery. Nature is a good stress-reliever,even if you can’t climb the Himalayas today. If you succeed in a significant goal—maybe reading an entire chapter—treat yourself by a break flying over the Himalayas on Google’s satellite map.
10. Reward yourself.
It’s healthy to set goals and then reward yourself in ways you decide in advance—not French fries, but something you won’t regret later. Facebook is an OK break if you haven’t let it become a substitute for what you meant to do.
11. Students need to learn about finding balance.
This means getting enough sleep, eating regularly and well, exercising, and not becoming too distracted or obsessed by love affairs or social problems. As adults, we, too, need to keep that kind of balance.
12. Don’t depend on drugs or even herbs to make you more focused and productive.
Also don’t indulge in partying in ways that will interfere with the next day.
13. If you’re taking a course, talk to the instructor early on, or an assistant, to know what to expect.
You may be aiming high, so plan on working harder or be realistic about your grade. Suss out what’s most important to the instructor. Establish a connection so you can talk to the instructor if you find yourself falling behind or do badly on a project. Pay attention in class.
14. Recall your original goals and motivations.
Sometimes we lose track of our original impetus once we’re midway through an endeavor. Why did you want to master this material? If you’re resenting the time, money, or difficulty, talk to someone you trust to reorient yourself.
6. How Many Months on Average Between the Last Fed Hike in Cycle and the First Cut Thereafter
Jim Reid Deutsche Bank I’ve done a lot of thinking recently as to whether the market has been crazy or not after the SVB collapse to price in imminent Fed cuts when the hiking cycle hasn’t yet officially finished. The reality is that the market probably got ahead of itself in the immediate aftermath, but more recently has been closer to being in line with history.
Today’s CoTD shows (in order) how many months there were between the last Fed hike in a cycle and the first cut thereafter. There is quite a wide bid-offer and every cycle is different, but the average gap is around 6 months, with the median 4 months. So if May was the last hike then median/average history would take us to September/October. Given the first cut is now fully priced by the November meeting (no meeting in October) it’s hard to criticise too heavily. DB think it’ll be in Q1 2024.
Of the 13 Fed cycles we’ve analysed here the annotated numbers on the graph show that 5 first cuts occurred when the recession had already started. A further two within 3 months. 2 more saw the recession start 6-7 months later, 1 more 11 months later and 3 outliers where the recession only started 33-69 months later.So most but not all (7/13) saw the first cut occur within 3 months of the subsequent recession.
Given where inflation currently is it’s hard to see the Fed cutting without a recession being imminent or obvious to them. Although that’s not the case at the moment, given the house view of it starting in Q4 we are probably in the right ball park for pricing in the first cut even if you could argue over the finer details.
7. U.S. Government Interest Expense is Now Annualized $929 Billion.
8. Global Supply Chain Pressure Record High to Record Low in One Year
We’ve all been there. That meeting you’ve scheduled 30 minutes for is now taking three hours. When you’ve finally called it a day, you’re still left without the answers you need. Your staff are left frustrated, your team deflated. What went wrong?
While mandatory to the company, meetings can quickly take a turn for the worst. Given the approach, it’s no wonder. Locking everyone in a room and buckling down until issues are solved is hardly an environment to garner innovation and camaraderie.
It also doesn’t help when the person in charge is making things worse. If you’re ever left scratching your head wondering why things turned sour, it’s time for some self-reflection.
Here are five signs that you’re likely the culprit of a good meeting gone wrong:
1. You use nicknames.
You may not think twice about it, but referring to a colleague as ‘man’, ‘bro’, ‘girl’, or ‘dude’ creates an issue. Not everyone interprets nicknames as a term of endearment. Some may feel it’s demeaning, while others may feel like you’re playing favorites.
Instead of navigating which nicknames are okay and which are not, do yourself a favor and just avoid the issue all together. Call someone by their first name. It’s that simple. I’m all for casual offices, but there is a level of professionalism that you need to maintain.
2. You play the blame game.
This can go two ways. You’re either blaming one person, or you’re taking all of the blame. We have a tendency as leaders to assume that if anything goes wrong, we need to point the finger. Even if it’s at ourselves.
To create a culture that’s continually innovating and connected, never single out someone or something as the culprit. Just watch any professional sports team; when they lose, they don’t blame the referee or another player. They win as a team and they lose as a team. Treat yours the same way.
3. You put people on the spot.
We all know that feeling when the teacher called your name, followed by the entire class staring at you. Even if you knew the answer, the pressure of being put on the spot makes your mind foggy and your anxiety levels high.
Why would you want to put someone through the same torture? It’s a common misconception that leaders have to keep employees on their toes to ensure they’re always prepared. But if you’ve hired right and are offering meaningful work, then this should never be an issue.
4. You shut down bad ideas.
This can seem like a no-brainer, but before you plead not guilty, chances are you’ve been an offender without even realizing it.
There are many ways we can dismiss ideas that aren’t worth developing. Your body language and facial expressions can play a big part. Snickers, eye rolls, furrowed brows, or pretending like you never heard them are all examples of how you’re telling the person (and your team) that their idea is not just bad, but not worth your time.
While no one’s asking you to sugarcoat the truth or analyze every idea that hits the table, the key is to celebrate the fact that ideas are coming forward at all. So treat every single one with consideration and respect. Otherwise, you’ll stop getting them.
5. You ‘but’ in.
“I thought you did a great job, but…”
As soon as you say those three little letters, you’ve ruined whatever came before it. If you have critical feedback to give, then give it without spinning it from a positive. Employees will appreciate you telling it like it is.
Stay away from loaded sentences. You’re only creating scenarios that are over analyzed and highly agonized.
1. Jeremy Schwartz at Wisdom Tree Answer to Yesterday’s Top 10 Opener.
Expanded tech is the the old tech classifications before S&P carved it up… effectively Amazon from Consumer Discretionary and Facebook/old twiter, Netflix from comms services more like old FANNG… Expanded tech makes up 40% of S&P
But history is repeating. The dramatic losses in debt markets last year, fueled by the most aggressive Federal Reserve policy tightening in a generation, has turned what was once a relatively slow and steady shift away from active bond funds and toward passive products into a stampede.
The gap between passive and active net flows reached a record $1.04 trillion in 2022, almost triple any other year, according to data from EPFR. Passive funds lured $279 billion in new cash, while active funds bled $757 billion.
As of March, assets managed by passive funds surpassed $3 trillion for the first time. They now account for 31% of the fixed-income fund universe, the data show, up from just 13% a decade ago.
5. Regional Bank Turmoil Pushing More Lending to Direct Private Lending.
Dealbook ByLauren HirschWhipsaw trading in shares of regional banks this week made it clear the fallout from three federal bank seizures was far from over. Some investors are betting against even seemingly healthy banks like PacWest, and regulators are gearing up to tack on new capital constraints for small and medium-size lenders.
Large banks, though raking in cash, are facing their own constraints, saddled with loans written before interest rates started rising.
That means businesses large and small may soon need to look elsewhere for loans. And a growing cohort of nonbanks, which don’t take deposits — including giant investment firms like Apollo Global Management, Ares Management and Blackstone — are chomping at the bit to step into the vacuum.
For the last decade, these institutions and others like them have aggressively scooped up and extended loans, helping to grow the private credit industry sixfold since 2013, to $850 billion, according to the financial data provider Preqin.
While most of Europe and North America condemns Russia for its war in Ukraine, as far as politics goes, it’s not a universal stance…
Statista’s Anna Fleck reports that new analysis by the Economist Intelligence Unit has found that Russia’s support base is slowly growing in some parts of the world.
Where 29 countries used to lean towards Russia in 2022, that number has now risen to 35.
Conversely, while the number of countries either West-leaning or actively condemning Russia is still by far the bigger group, its figures have dropped from 131 to 122.
The EIU says this fall is partly driven by the shift of a number of emerging economies into a more neutral position.
The map above uses EIU data to show different countries’ stances on Russia ranging from condemnation to support, as of March 2023.
While Africa shows a patchwork quilt of positionings, the EIU reports that a number of its countries have moved towards the Russian side in the past year.Where South Africa and Uganda were politically neutral on the topic in 2022, they are now listed as Russia-leaning. Meanwhile, where Burkina Faso and Mali were Russia-leaning before, they are now outright supportive of Russia. In Latin America, Bolivia was highlighted as a notable country for its position shift, having also moved from neutral to pro-Russia by 2023.
At the same time, the number of neutral countries has risen from 32 to 35. One country to buck the trend is Bangladesh, which has moved the opposite direction, shifting from being neutral to West-leaning between 2022 and 2023.
Ryan Holiday-It’s very easy to get comfortable. To build up your life exactly how you want it to be. Minimize inconveniences and hand off the stuff you don’t like to do. To find what you enjoy, where you enjoy it, and never leave.
A velvet rut is what it’s called. It’s nice, but the comfort tricks you into thinking that you’re not stuck.
The Stoics knew that this was a kind of death. That as soon as we stop growing, we start dying. Or at least, we become more vulnerable to the swings of Fate and Fortune. Seneca talked over and over again about the importance of adversity, of not only embracing the struggle life throws at us but actively seeking out that difficulty, so you can be stronger and better and more prepared. A person who has never been challenged, he said, who always gets their way, is a tragic figure. They have no idea what they are capable of. They are not even close to fulfilling their potential.
So that leaves you with something to think about today: Are you challenging yourself? Do the choices you make push you or do they help you atrophy? Are you in a velvet rut?
Bespoke Investment Group Heading into earnings season, there was a considerable amount of angst on the part of investors regarding the mecacap stocks and how they would react to their earnings reports. Given their outperformance in Q1, the prevailing view was that the bar was too high, leaving the megacaps susceptible to disappointment when they reported. Within the S&P 500, there are seven companies whose weighting exceeds 1.5% in the index, and in the chart below we list the performance of each company’s stock (largest to smallest) on the earnings reaction day of their most recent report. Of the seven companies highlighted, only two (Alphabet and Amazon.com) declined in reaction to their reports. Two stocks (Nvidia and Meta) surged more than 10%, one (Microsoft) rallied more than 7%, and Apple, with its weighting of over 7%, managed to rise more than 4.5% following its report last week. There’s still a ton of reports left to get through before earnings season winds down, but on a market cap basis, we’re past the peak, and based on the reactions of the largest companies in the market, it’s been a much better earnings season than most investors expected.
Foods will only act upon one’s brain if they in some way chemically resemble an actual neurotransmitter within the brain or affect brain health.
Food has both negative and positive effects; it all depends upon which food you consume, how much you consume, and for how long.
If you wish to alter your current brain function or slow your brain’s aging, you likely need to consume different foods.
Almost everything you choose to consume will directly or indirectly affect your brain. The contents of one’s diet will only act upon one’s brain if in some way they chemically resemble an actual neurotransmitter within the brain or if they are able to interact with an essential biochemical process in the brain that influences the production, release, or inactivation of a neurotransmitter, or the general health of the neuron itself.
Food should be viewed in the same way that we view drugs; they interact with many brain processes and alter how we think and feel. Your brain cannot tell the difference between a food (which is a chemical we consume for its nutritional value) and a drug (which is a chemical we consume for its potential positive benefits on our health).
Obviously, some things we consume affect us more than others. For the purposes of this article, I’m going to define food as anything we take into our bodies, whether it’s nutritious or not; this includes spices, plants, animal parts, drugs of any kind, coffee, tea, nicotine, and chocolate. In order to better understand how food affects the brain it will be helpful to divide them into three categories.
First, those foods we consume in high doses with acute dosing: for example, coffee, sugar, heroin, alcohol, nicotine, marijuana, some spices, and a few psychoactive plants and mushrooms. Their effects are almost immediate and depend upon how much reaches the brain.
In this class, the most important consideration is to get enough of the chemical from within the food to its site of action in our brain to actually produce some kind of effect that we can notice and associate with consuming that particular food. Most of the time, this simply does not happen.
For example, consider nutmeg, it contains two chemicals that our bodies convert into the popular street drug called ecstasy. Yet if we consumed the entire canister of the spice, our guts will notice (with terrible diarrhea) and there is a good chance that we will hallucinate for about 48 hours. According to my students, the experience is quite unpleasant.
Secondly are those foods that affect our brain slowly over a period of a few days to weeks. This is usually called “precursor-loading” and would include many different amino acids (tryptophan and lysine are good examples); carbohydrates that have a high glycemic index such as potatoes, bagels, and rice; fava beans; some minerals (iron and magnesium in particular); lecithin-containing products such as donuts, eggs, and cakes; chocolate; and the water-soluble vitamins. Their purpose is to bias the function of a specific transmitter system; usually to enhance its function in the brain.
For example, scientists once thought that drinking a glass of warm milk before bed or eating a large meal of protein made us drowsy because of tryptophan loading. The current evidence does not support this, but the claim makes my major point: We must get enough of any particular nutrient/chemical to the right place and at the right dose in our brain in order for us to notice any effects. (Unfortunately, in this case, tryptophan has difficulty getting into our brains.)
So, what’s the scientific evidence for considering the cognitive effects of these foods? Mostly, it’s related to what happens when we do not get enough of them.
For example, studies have shown that consuming too little tryptophan makes us depressed and angry and has been blamed for multiple wars and acts of cannibalism. Too little sugar or water-soluble vitamins (the Bs and C) will induce changes in brain function that we will notice after a few days of deprivation. Many authors jump to the conclusion that giving high doses of such nutrients will rapidly improve our mood or thinking: sadly, this is rarely the case. Ordinarily, the foods in this category require more time to affect our brains than those foods in the first category.
The third category includes the slow-acting, lifetime dosing nutrients that have been popular topics in the press recently. This category includes anti-oxidant-rich foods such as colorful fruit and vegetables, fish and olive oils; fruit juices, anti-inflammatory plants and drugs such as aspirin, some steroids, cinnamon, and some other spices; nicotine, caffeine, and chocolate; the fat-soluble vitamins; nuts; legumes; and beer and red wine.
People who eat these foods do not report acute changes in their thoughts or moods (depending upon how much they consume!) but certainly benefit from consuming them regularly over their life span. In general, the benefit comes from the fact that all of these foods provide our brains with some form of protection against the deadliest thing we expose ourselves to every day—oxygen.
Because we consume food, we must consume oxygen. Because we consume oxygen, we age. Thus, people who live the longest tend to eat food rich in antioxidants or simply eat a lot less food. Recent studies suggest that nicotine and caffeine prevent the toxic actions of oxygen in our brains, which is why I’ve included them here.
You can see that depending upon how you frame the question about foods and the brain, you get a different list of foods and a different reason for consuming them. If you wish to alter your current brain function or slow your brain’s aging, you likely need to consume different foods.
But in truth, no one ever considers these distinctions when eating—we just eat what tastes good. Sadly, our brains powerfully reward us when we eat sugar, fat, and salt; thus we have obesity and an oncoming epidemic of obesity-related illnesses. Consequently, like drugs, food has both negative and positive effects and it all depends upon which food you consume, how much you consume, and for how long.
1. Alot of Articles Floating Around About What S&P Does Post Rate Hike Cycle….Wide Range of Outcomes
Liz Ann Sonders Focusing only on the average would suggest a pattern of weakness leading into the final hike, some strength in the immediate aftermath of the final hike, and then a significant sell-off out to about 100 trading days following the final hike. But, take a look at the same average in the second chart below with the full range of outcomes based on the 14 cycles since the S&P 500’s inception in 1928. Obviously, there has been a wide range of outcomes—generally in the range of +30% to -30% over the span of the subsequent year.
The accompanying table below details each cycle, with the date of the final hike, along with S&P 500 performance at the six-month and one-year points. Pattern? Not so much. This highlights that there are always myriad influences on market behavior—not just monetary policy. But it also reinforces one of my favorite admonitions: “Analysis of an average can lead to average analysis.” While penning this commentary, I saw several headlines that flashed something along the lines of “typically, the final rate hike has been a positive for stocks”… there is no “typical” when it comes to this analysis
7. Israeli startup funding hits lowest mark in five years…-70%
Two reports conducted by the Start-Up Nation Policy Institute, and by IVC Data and Insights with LeumiTech show worrying trends for Israel’s tech sector. Only $1.7 billion were invested during the first quarter of 2023 in Israeli tech companies compared to $6.7 billion in the first quarter of 2022
Artificial intelligence is as revolutionary as mobile phones and the Internet.By Bill Gates
In my lifetime, I’ve seen two demonstrations of technology that struck me as revolutionary.
The first time was in 1980, when I was introduced to a graphical user interface—the forerunner of every modern operating system, including Windows. I sat with the person who had shown me the demo, a brilliant programmer named Charles Simonyi, and we immediately started brainstorming about all the things we could do with such a user-friendly approach to computing. Charles eventually joined Microsoft, Windows became the backbone of Microsoft, and the thinking we did after that demo helped set the company’s agenda for the next 15 years.
The second big surprise came just last year. I’d been meeting with the team from OpenAI since 2016 and was impressed by their steady progress. In mid-2022, I was so excited about their work that I gave them a challenge: train an artificial intelligence to pass an Advanced Placement biology exam. Make it capable of answering questions that it hasn’t been specifically trained for. (I picked AP Bio because the test is more than a simple regurgitation of scientific facts—it asks you to think critically about biology.) If you can do that, I said, then you’ll have made a true breakthrough.
I thought the challenge would keep them busy for two or three years. They finished it in just a few months.In September, when I met with them again, I watched in awe as they asked GPT, their AI model, 60 multiple-choice questions from the AP Bio exam—and it got 59 of them right. Then it wrote outstanding answers to six open-ended questions from the exam. We had an outside expert score the test, and GPT got a 5—the highest possible score, and the equivalent to getting an A or A+ in a college-level biology course.
Once it had aced the test, we asked it a non-scientific question: “What do you say to a father with a sick child?” It wrote a thoughtful answer that was probably better than most of us in the room would have given. The whole experience was stunning. I knew I had just seen the most important advance in technology since the graphical user interface. This inspired me to think about all the things that AI can achieve in the next five to 10 years.
The development of AI is as fundamental as the creation of the microprocessor, the personal computer, the Internet, and the mobile phone. It will change the way people work, learn, travel, get health care, and communicate with each other. Entire industries will reorient around it. Businesses will distinguish themselves by how well they use it.
Philanthropy is my full-time job these days, and I’ve been thinking a lot about how—in addition to helping people be more productive—AI can reduce some of the world’s worst inequities. Globally, the worst inequity is in health: 5 million children under the age of 5 die every year. That’s down from 10 million two decades ago, but it’s still a shockingly high number. Nearly all of these children were born in poor countries and die of preventable causes like diarrhea or malaria. It’s hard to imagine a better use of AIs than saving the lives of children.
I’ve been thinking a lot about how AI can reduce some of the world’s worst inequities. In the United States, the best opportunity for reducing inequity is to improve education, particularly making sure that students succeed at math. The evidence shows that having basic math skills sets students up for success, no matter what career they choose. But achievement in math is going down across the country, especially for Black, Latino, and low-income students. AI can help turn that trend around.
Climate change is another issue where I’m convinced AI can make the world more equitable. The injustice of climate change is that the people who are suffering the most—the world’s poorest—are also the ones who did the least to contribute to the problem. I’m still thinking and learning about how AI can help, but later in this post I’ll suggest a few areas with a lot of potential.
In short, I’m excited about the impact that AI will have on issues that the Gates Foundation works on, and the foundation will have much more to say about AI in the coming months. The world needs to make sure that everyone—and not just people who are well-off—benefits from artificial intelligence. Governments and philanthropy will need to play a major role in ensuring that it reduces inequity and doesn’t contribute to it. This is the priority for my own work related to AI.
Any new technology that’s so disruptive is bound to make people uneasy, and that’s certainly true with artificial intelligence. I understand why—it raises hard questions about the workforce, the legal system, privacy, bias, and more. AIs also make factual mistakes and experience hallucinations. Before I suggest some ways to mitigate the risks, I’ll define what I mean by AI, and I’ll go into more detail about some of the ways in which it will help empower people at work, save lives, and improve education.
Defining artificial intelligence Technically, the term artificial intelligence refers to a model created to solve a specific problem or provide a particular service. What is powering things like ChatGPT is artificial intelligence. It is learning how to do chat better but can’t learn other tasks. By contrast, the term artificial general intelligence refers to software that’s capable of learning any task or subject. AGI doesn’t exist yet—there is a robust debate going on in the computing industry about how to create it, and whether it can even be created at all.
Developing AI and AGI has been the great dream of the computing industry. For decades, the question was when computers would be better than humans at something other than making calculations. Now, with the arrival of machine learning and large amounts of computing power, sophisticated AIs are a reality and they will get better very fast.
I think back to the early days of the personal computing revolution, when the software industry was so small that most of us could fit onstage at a conference. Today it is a global industry. Since a huge portion of it is now turning its attention to AI, the innovations are going to come much faster than what we experienced after the microprocessor breakthrough. Soon the pre-AI period will seem as distant as the days when using a computer meant typing at a C:> prompt rather than tapping on a screen
Emotional Regulation: When feelings overwhelm you, you can’t make good decisions. You’re an emotional crash test dummy. Slow down and get some distance. Notice and name your emotions. Then reappraise. Is this really that bad? Are these thoughts useful?
Optimism: When we can’t see a potential positive outcome, it’s rational to give up. Consider your Best Possible Self. See difficulty as transient, local, and controllable so you stop feeling like a pigeon in life’s shooting gallery.
Cognitive Agility: When you immediately jump to the worst-case scenario, you’re going to want to quit. Take the time to consider more possibilities. And then ask yourself which one you’d bet the mortgage on being most likely. Otherwise, you’ll feel like a shut-in in a house of horrors.
Self-Compassion: You’re letting someone walk all over you. But the person doing the walking is also you. Take that compassion you usually extend to others and offer some of it to yourself.
Self-Efficacy: You build confidence and agency by accomplishing things often enough that it changes how you see yourself. Start small and achieve goals until you start to see yourself as “the kind of person who achieves their goals.”
Everyone struggles. Everyone. Life is about how we see those challenges and how we respond to them.
The most important thing is to practice the above techniques. Do not let this post be another thing that just gets tossed into the attic of the world wide web. Until Silicon Valley invents a way for me to grab you by the lapels over the internet, you need to practice the above yourself. I’m just an NPC in the game of your life offering you a new quest.
Do not forget all the times that felt so horrible but you made it through. This is one of the critical lessons of life. All the times of shrieking madness that became little more than funny stories. “This too shall pass” isn’t enough…
1. KRE Regional Bank ETF Breaks to New Lows…50% of Positions in ETF are Shorts.
Dave Lutz at Jones Short interest as a percentage of shares outstanding in the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (ticker KRE) rose to 96% from 74% a week ago, according to data compiled by S3 Partners. When accounting for the synthetic long bets created in each short sale, means almost 50% of positions in the ETF are wagering on a decline. That number climbed from 42% last Tuesday.
2.7% year-over-year revenue growth, a 24% decline in net income, and operating margins moving down to 25% from 31% a year earlier. Hardly anything to get excited about, but all above the low expectations heading into the report.
5. UBER Chart
UBER holds 200day now making run at 2023 previous highs
Artwork: Xavier Veilhan, The Big Mobile, 2004, metallic structure, 25 spheres in PVC with diameters from 29.5″ to 137.8″, Exhibition View, 3rd Biennial of Contemporary Art of Valencia
What is the best way to drive innovative work inside organizations? Important clues hide in the stories of world-renowned creators. It turns out that ordinary scientists, marketers, programmers, and other unsung knowledge workers, whose jobs require creative productivity every day, have more in common with famous innovators than most managers realize. The workday events that ignite their emotions, fuel their motivation, and trigger their perceptions are fundamentally the same.
The Double Helix, James Watson’s 1968 memoir about discovering the structure of DNA, describes the roller coaster of emotions he and Francis Crick experienced through the progress and setbacks of the work that eventually earned them the Nobel Prize. After the excitement of their first attempt to build a DNA model, Watson and Crick noticed some serious flaws. According to Watson, “Our first minutes with the models…were not joyous.” Later that evening, “a shape began to emerge which brought back our spirits.” But when they showed their “breakthrough” to colleagues, they found that their model would not work. Dark days of doubt and ebbing motivation followed. When the duo finally had their bona fide breakthrough, and their colleagues found no fault with it, Watson wrote, “My morale skyrocketed, for I suspected that we now had the answer to the riddle.” Watson and Crick were so driven by this success that they practically lived in the lab, trying to complete the work.
Throughout these episodes, Watson and Crick’s progress—or lack thereof—ruled their reactions. In our recent research on creative work inside businesses, we stumbled upon a remarkably similar phenomenon. Through exhaustive analysis of diaries kept by knowledge workers, we discovered the progress principle: Of all the things that can boost emotions, motivation, and perceptions during a workday, the single most important is making progress in meaningful work. And the more frequently people experience that sense of progress, the more likely they are to be creatively productive in the long run. Whether they are trying to solve a major scientific mystery or simply produce a high-quality product or service, everyday progress—even a small win—can make all the difference in how they feel and perform.
Of all the things that can boost inner work life, the most important is making progress in meaningful work.
The power of progress is fundamental to human nature, but few managers understand it or know how to leverage progress to boost motivation. In fact, work motivation has been a subject of long-standing debate. In a survey asking about the keys to motivating workers, we found that some managers ranked recognition for good work as most important, while others put more stock in tangible incentives. Some focused on the value of interpersonal support, while still others thought clear goals were the answer. Interestingly, very few of our surveyed managers ranked progress first. (See the sidebar “A Surprise for Managers.”)
A Surprise for Managers
In a 1968 issue of HBR, Frederick Herzberg published a now-classic article titled “One More Time: How Do You …
If you are a manager, the progress principle holds clear implications for where to focus your efforts. It suggests that you have more influence than you may realize over employees’ well-being, motivation, and creative output. Knowing what serves to catalyze and nourish progress—and what does the opposite—turns out to be the key to effectively managing people and their work.
In this article, we share what we have learned about the power of progress and how managers can leverage it. We spell out how a focus on progress translates into concrete managerial actions and provide a checklist to help make such behaviors habitual. But to clarify why those actions are so potent, we first describe our research and what the knowledge workers’ diaries revealed about their inner work lives.
Inner Work Life and Performance
For nearly 15 years, we have been studying the psychological experiences and the performance of people doing complex work inside organizations. Early on, we realized that a central driver of creative, productive performance was the quality of a person’s inner work life—the mix of emotions, motivations, and perceptions over the course of a workday. How happy workers feel; how motivated they are by an intrinsic interest in the work; how positively they view their organization, their management, their team, their work, and themselves—all these combine either to push them to higher levels of achievement or to drag them down.
To understand such interior dynamics better, we asked members of project teams to respond individually to an end-of-day e-mail survey during the course of the project—just over four months, on average. (For more on this research, see our article “Inner Work Life: Understanding the Subtext of Business Performance,” HBR May 2007.) The projects—inventing kitchen gadgets, managing product lines of cleaning tools, and solving complex IT problems for a hotel empire, for example—all involved creativity. The daily survey inquired about participants’ emotions and moods, motivation levels, and perceptions of the work environment that day, as well as what work they did and what events stood out in their minds.
Twenty-six project teams from seven companies participated, comprising 238 individuals. This yielded nearly 12,000 diary entries. Naturally, every individual in our population experienced ups and downs. Our goal was to discover the states of inner work life and the workday events that correlated with the highest levels of creative output.
In a dramatic rebuttal to the commonplace claim that high pressure and fear spur achievement, we found that, at least in the realm of knowledge work, people are more creative and productive when their inner work lives are positive—when they feel happy, are intrinsically motivated by the work itself, and have positive perceptions of their colleagues and the organization. Moreover, in those positive states, people are more committed to the work and more collegial toward those around them. Inner work life, we saw, can fluctuate from one day to the next—sometimes wildly—and performance along with it. A person’s inner work life on a given day fuels his or her performance for the day and can even affect performance the next day.
Once this inner work life effect became clear, our inquiry turned to whether and how managerial action could set it in motion. What events could evoke positive or negative emotions, motivations, and perceptions? The answers were tucked within our research participants’ diary entries. There are predictable triggers that inflate or deflate inner work life, and, even accounting for variation among individuals, they are pretty much the same for everyone.
The Power of Progress
Our hunt for inner work life triggers led us to the progress principle. When we compared our research participants’ best and worst days (based on their overall mood, specific emotions, and motivation levels), we found that the most common event triggering a “best day” was any progress in the work by the individual or the team. The most common event triggering a “worst day” was a setback.
Consider, for example, how progress relates to one component of inner work life: overall mood ratings. Steps forward occurred on 76% of people’s best-mood days. By contrast, setbacks occurred on only 13% of those days. (See the exhibit “What Happens on a Good Day?”)
What Happens on a Good Day?
Progress—even a small step forward—occurs on many of the days people report being in a good mood. …
Two other types of inner work life triggers also occur frequently on best days: Catalysts, actions that directly support work, including help from a person or group, and nourishers, events such as shows of respect and words of encouragement. Each has an opposite: Inhibitors, actions that fail to support or actively hinder work, and toxins, discouraging or undermining events. Whereas catalysts and inhibitors are directed at the project, nourishers and toxins are directed at the person. Like setbacks, inhibitors and toxins are rare on days of great inner work life.
Events on worst-mood days are nearly the mirror image of those on best-mood days (see the exhibit “What Happens on a Bad Day?”). Here, setbacks predominated, occurring on 67% of those days; progress occurred on only 25% of them. Inhibitors and toxins also marked many worst-mood days, and catalysts and nourishers were rare.
What Happens on a Bad Day?
Events on bad days—setbacks and other hindrances—are nearly the mirror image of those on good days. …
This is the progress principle made visible: If a person is motivated and happy at the end of the workday, it’s a good bet that he or she made some progress. If the person drags out of the office disengaged and joyless, a setback is most likely to blame.
When we analyzed all 12,000 daily surveys filled out by our participants, we discovered that progress and setbacks influence all three aspects of inner work life. On days when they made progress, our participants reported more positive emotions. They not only were in a more upbeat mood in general but also expressed more joy, warmth, and pride. When they suffered setbacks, they experienced more frustration, fear, and sadness.
Motivations were also affected: On progress days, people were more intrinsically motivated—by interest in and enjoyment of the work itself. On setback days, they were not only less intrinsically motivated but also less extrinsically motivated by recognition. Apparently, setbacks can lead a person to feel generally apathetic and disinclined to do the work at all.
Perceptions differed in many ways, too. On progress days, people perceived significantly more positive challenge in their work. They saw their teams as more mutually supportive and reported more positive interactions between the teams and their supervisors. On a number of dimensions, perceptions suffered when people encountered setbacks. They found less positive challenge in the work, felt that they had less freedom in carrying it out, and reported that they had insufficient resources. On setback days, participants perceived both their teams and their supervisors as less supportive.
To be sure, our analyses establish correlations but do not prove causality. Were these changes in inner work life the result of progress and setbacks, or was the effect the other way around? The numbers alone cannot answer that. However, we do know, from reading thousands of diary entries, that more-positive perceptions, a sense of accomplishment, satisfaction, happiness, and even elation often followed progress. Here’s a typical post-progress entry, from a programmer: “I smashed that bug that’s been frustrating me for almost a calendar week. That may not be an event to you, but I live a very drab life, so I’m all hyped.”
Likewise, we saw that deteriorating perceptions, frustration, sadness, and even disgust often followed setbacks. As another participant, a product marketer, wrote, “We spent a lot of time updating the Cost Reduction project list, and after tallying all the numbers, we are still coming up short of our goal. It is discouraging to not be able to hit it after all the time spent and hard work.”
Almost certainly, the causality goes both ways, and managers can use this feedback loop between progress and inner work life to support both.
Teresa M. Amabile is a Baker Foundation Professor at Harvard Business School and a coauthor of The Progress Principle. Her current research investigates how life inside organizations can influence people and their performance, as well as how people approach and experience the transition to retirement.
Dave Lutz Jones Trading EARNINGS ROLLS– Results from the big tech companies have sparked investors’ hopes that the worst of the postpandemic hangover is fading, but they also show how much growth has slowed – Companies as varied as AMZN, GOOGL, META, INTC signaled to investors in recent days that the brutal slowdown in sales growth that began as people emerged from the pandemic and re-engaged with daily routines was coming to an end. Digital ad spending is stabilizing, for instance, and laptop buying is showing modest signs of life. The big tech companies that reported results this past week added a combined $320 billion in market valuation after posting their figures, according to WSJ
For many individual investors, the stakes ramp up Thursday when Apple is on deck to report its earnings. The company makes up about 19% of the average individual investor’s portfolio, according to WSJ. Bespoke notes Apple and Microsoft account for 39% of the S&P’s gain so far in 2023. Add in NVIDIA and Meta and it’s 60%!
I-Bonds Hit a High Over 9% But They Re-Set Every 6 Months.
New I-bonds are now officially earning 4.3% as inflation wanes, but have an attractive 0.9% fixed rate
Beth PinskerFrom May 1 through the end of October, any new purchases get a 0.9% fixed rate for up to 30 years, making it pretty good deal for long-term savers.
With inflation numbers coming down, the Series I Bonds interest rate took a tumble for its semiannual adjustment, officially announced Monday.
New I-bonds, issued May 1 through the end of October, will have a composite rate of 4.3%, which is down from 6.89% over the previous six months and a peak of 9.62%. That includes a fixed rate of 0.9%, which is up from the last rate of 0.4% in the last six months, and 0% for several years before that.
The U.S. Treasury usually waits until May 1 and Nov. 1 to reveal the new rate on the investments, but this time posted the update with no warning on Friday on its TreauryDirect.gov, which is the only place to buy I-bonds, once sales were locked out for the previous rate on April 27. I-bonds have grown in popularity over the past two years as rates have climbed, and that the news spread quickly.
I-bond rates have two components: an adjustable rate based on inflation data that resets every six months and a fixed rate that is set at purchase and sticks with the bond until redemption (up to 30 years).
Some rules apply, most important: You can only buy up to $10,000 a year per individual. Also, you must hold I-bonds at least one year, and if you cash out before five years, you lose the last three months of interest.
At a rate of 4.3%, I-bonds will no longer be top of the savings heap when CDs, savings accounts and other Treasury products are yielding as much or more. But because of the way the inflation protection works, I-bonds are still attractive for long-term savers. That’s because the new issue I-bonds have such a robust fixed rate. Those who bought I-bonds in the last two years when the fixed rate was 0% might want to think about cashing those out and buying new ones, but this strategy involves waiting at least 15 months rather than just one year.
“I would recommend cashing out old bonds at 0% to switch to new bonds at 0.9%, but you have to be careful not to lose the 6.48% variable rate,” says Harry Sit, founder of the blog The Finance Buff.
The inflation conundrum
You might be wondering: If eggs are still so expensive, why did the I-bond interest rate drop so much?
“Inflation is never an ‘is’–it’s only a ‘was,’” explains Jeremy Keil, a financial adviser based in Milwaukee.
I-bonds are based on the last six months of inflation data from the Consumer-Price Index, which does not have the peak numbers from a year ago that are still included in headline inflation data. “Inflation is percentage of growth and it depends on when you start counting,” Keil says.
Liz Ann Sonders Schwab Survey from LendingClub shows that 65.5% of Gen Z were living paycheck-to-paycheck as of March, up from 58.3% a year earlier … share is greater for Millennials (73.2%), but increase from prior year (+0.3%) wasn’t as dramatic
9. Nearly three-quarters of Americans blame media for dividing nation, poll says
By DAVID KLEPPERtoday WASHINGTON (AP) — When it comes to the news media and the impact it’s having on democracy and political polarization in the United States, Americans are likelier to say it’s doing more harm than good.
Nearly three-quarters of U.S. adults say the news media is increasing political polarization in this country, and just under half say they have little to no trust in the media’s ability to report the news fairly and accurately, according to a new survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research and Robert F. Kennedy Human Rights.
The poll, released before World Press Freedom Day on Wednesday, shows Americans have significant concerns about misinformation — and the role played by the media itself along with politicians and social media companies in spreading it — but that many are also concerned about growing threats to journalists’ safety.
“The news riles people up,” said 53-year-old Barbara Jordan, a Democrat from Hutchinson, Kansas. Jordan said she now does her own online research instead of going by what she sees on the TV news. “You’re better off Googling something and learning about it. I trust the internet more than I do the TV.”
That breakdown in trust may prompt many Americans to reject the mainstream news media, often in favor of social media and unreliable websites that spread misleading claims and that can become partisan echo chambers, leading to further polarization.
Overall, about 6 in 10 said the news media bears blame for the spread of misinformation, and a similar percentage also said it has a large amount of responsibility for addressing it. Majorities also think others, including social media companies and politicians, share in the responsibility both for the spread of misinformation and for stopping it from spreading.
“So many people get their information from social media, and people believe whatever they want to believe,” said Araceli Cervantes, a 39-year-old Chicago woman and mother of four who said she is a Republican.
When it comes to protecting the freedom of the press in the U.S., 44% of respondents say the U.S. government is doing a good job, more than the 24% who say it’s doing a bad job. Most Americans are at least somewhat concerned, however, when it comes to the safety of journalists, with roughly a third saying they’re very concerned or extremely concerned about attacks on the press.
The poll of 1,002 adults was conducted March 30-April 3 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
The world is full of difficult personalities, but the one that’s impossible to avoid is the narcissist. They are usually the most insecure people in the room, but have established a way of appearing ultra-confident.
As a psychologist who studies narcissism, I’ve found that, in most cases, highly narcissistic people are masters of gaslighting. Their primary goal in a relationship is to offset their insecurity by controlling and manipulating others.
Here are six phrases that they always use — and how to deal with them:
1. “I don’t want to make this about me, but…”
Statements like this show that narcissistic people know they shouldn’t dominate the conversation, yet they do it anyway. It’s like a pseudo-disclaimer that gives them permission to only focus on themselves.
Olivia de Recat for CNBC Make It
How to handle it: If you get into a conversation with a narcissist, be prepared for their story hour. If it’s interesting, listen. You can even treat it like an IRL podcast. But if you’re hoping for a two-way conversation, look elsewhere.
2. “I’m sorry you feel that way.”
Narcissists have a hard time admitting fault, and this is their classic attempt at an apology. But it’s actually more of a deflection.
With this phrase, they’re implying that your feelings are your issues alone, and that they’ll take no responsibility for their behavior.
How to handle it: Without genuine remorse, no matter what the transgression was, they’ll likely do it again. My advice is to simply disengage. To avoid getting hurt in the future, it is often best to see people for who they really are.
3. “Why are you doing this to me?”
Narcissists have a stunning capacity to shift from being the offender to being the victim.
You may be the one who has the flu or a tough week at work. But if whatever you’re struggling with inconveniences them, it will be framed as their problem.
How to handle it: You can get a degree of power back through self-awareness. Otherwise, you may find yourself constantly wondering if you’re actually at fault. Seek support — from a therapist or empathetic friend, for example — to remind yourself that you’re not the offender.
4. “I’m a busy person. I don’t have time for this.”
“This” can be anything — maybe you want to discuss a project you’re working on together or you’re inviting them to a work event.
The hallmarks of a narcissist are entitlement, a lack of empathy and the inability to maintain reciprocal relationships. Not only are they unable to understand another person’s needs, but they’re also dismissive of them.
How to handle it: Recognize their limitations. They likely won’t make time for you unless they need something. These relationships are often the equivalent of going to an empty well for water, so do what you can to foster support independent of the narcissist.
5. “I hope you know who you’re messing with.”
The evil twin to this is: “If you ever do wrong by me, I’ll make your life a living hell.”
This tactic of dangling menace and the possibility of vengeance is how they create an illusion of power and a sense of fear in you. Most people don’t want to face this perceived threat, so they comply.
How to handle it: This can be unsettling, especially if you’re dealing with someone who does have a track record of making other people miserable. Documentation is key. Save all emails and messages. If there’s a genuine safety issue, work with local authorities to devise a plan.
6. “It’s not fair.”
Narcissists believe there should be a set of rules for them, and separate set of rules for everyone else. When they have to comply, or a consequence is enforced, it’s a reminder that they are not special.
Whether their friend’s company is doing great and making lots of money, or they have to pay a penalty because they tried to game the system and got caught, you can expect a rant of “it’s not fair” statements.
How to handle it: You may be tempted to appease them, perhaps out of guilt or to avoid conflict. But doing so will set an impossible precedent. Don’t try to be a person who tries to make life “fair” for them by making unreasonable personal sacrifices.
3. Market Cap to Equal Weight S&P One of Widest Spreads Ever 2023
Bespoke Investment Group-Whenever you see a list of best-performing stocks, it’s inevitably loaded with many small stocks that most investors have never heard of. This year, though, it’s practically been the opposite trend as the two top performing stocks in the S&P 500 on a YTD basis – Meta Platforms (+96%) and Nvidia (+88%) – are not only household names, but they also have market caps of more than $500 billion. We’d also note that both stocks are more than 30 percentage points ahead of the next closest stocks in terms of top YTD returns!
With such strong returns among the largest stocks in the S&P 500, the YTD performance spread between the market-cap-weighted S&P 500 and its equal-weighted counterpart is among the widest ever seen on a YTD basis through the end of April. Through Friday afternoon, the market-cap-weighted S&P 500 was up 8.26% YTD, while the equal-weighted index was up just 2.13%. At 6.14 percentage points, the YTD performance gap between the two indices is the second widest since 1990, trailing only the 6.8% percentage point gap in 2020. Besides 2020, the only other year where the gap was wider than two percentage points was in 1997. While it’s a small sample size and history doesn’t always repeat itself, we’d note that the S&P 500’s rest-of-year performance was a gain of over 20% in both of those years. Just saying.
Besides the two other years where the performance gap was significantly wide like this year, what stands out about the chart below is how common it has historically been for the market cap-weighted index to underperform the equal weight index in the first four months of the year. Including this year, the cap-weighted index has only outperformed nine times in the last 34 years.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan. Data as of April 27, 2023. Weight and contribution are proxied by the SPY ETF. Weight refers to the average daily weight so far this year.
5. Mortgage Originations…2020-2021 vs. GFC 2008 Crisis
2021 Super Prime 70% vs. 2007 26%…..2021 Sub-Prime 2% vs. 2007 12%
7. Saudi Mega City Project $500B vs. Inflation Reduction Act $370B
Scott Galloway-This sci-fi mega-city is the centerpiece of Saudi Arabia’s Neom project, budgeted at $500 billion. Keep in mind, that’s the budget — and 9 out of 10 mega-projects go over budget. Saudi Arabia is also building the Diriyah Gate, a $20 billion property development that will add 20,000 homes to the historic district of Diriyah, and the Red Sea Project, which will build 1,000 homes and 50 hotels across 22 small islands. Meanwhile, Qatar is building its own “city of the future” fit with a 90,000-capacity sports stadium, a dedicated entertainment district (“Entertainment City”), and the country’s first six-star hotel. No ski resort, though.
10. Practice Improves the Potential for Future Plasticity-
E. Paul Zehr Ph.D. The more you attempt to learn skills, the better your brain gets at learning.
KEY POINTS
Motor skill learning leads to changes in brain structure and function.
Some of the neuroplasticity from skill learning is related to getting better at learning in general.
The training we do produces neuroplasticity to get better at what we are doing now and may help us learn better in the future.
Learning something new is hard. It doesn’t matter what it is, from motor skills for martial arts to musing about Mozart’s motivations, the process of acquiring knowledge, skills, and abilities is challenging. We can be trying to do something new or even reassembling and repurposing disparate bits of knowledge we already have. Regardless of the context, learning takes us out of our comfort zone and into discomfort while we try to kickstart the neuroplasticity that will take us forward.
Priming plasticity with prior practice
But can you get better at learning how to learn? This is basically the question that Jamie Kweon, Megan Vigne, Richard Jones, Linda Carpenter and Joshua Brown at Butler Hospital and Brown University were interested in answering with their research. These folks wondered if the effort and training that musicians and athletes undergo to learn and acquire skills has a more generic benefit of being better at learning in general.
We already know that learning motor skills produces changes in brain structure and function. Folks who have trained for a long time show these changes and acquired neuroplasticity.
From Mozart to Martial Arts Moves
In groups of musicians, athletes, and untrained “control” participants, the researchers used repetitive brain stimulation and pharmacological manipulation known to be related to the cellular basis of skill learning. The idea was to see if excitability of the brain related to motor activity was different in those who had intensively trained to learn skills and those who had not. They found that there was no inherent difference in general excitability between the groups. However, when the brain stimulation and pharmacological conditioning designed to enhance neuroplasticity, the musicians and athletes had a much more powerful response.
The overall “findings suggest that motor practice and learning create a neuronal environment more responsive to plasticity-inducing events”. It seems that deep history of skill learning allows for a better ability to switch to an enhanced learning mode. Since this was a cross-sectional study, it would be great to see an experimental study measuring such changes over time.
In any case, this interesting result has big implications for designing strategies and paradigms for learning in general but also for “psychotherapy and rehabilitation…including recovery from neurological disorders…like stroke rehabilitation, cognitive-behavioral therapy, or clinical rTMS”. This includes translation to other brain areas and “networks, such as those theoretically targeted with dorsolateral prefrontal cortex rTMS for depression“.
Yearning to Learn How to Learn
When I came across this study it brought to mind something related to this that I’ve seen so many times over the years. And this has been in both my own practices of physical activity especially in martial arts, but also teaching martial arts across the lifespan. A big part of what people learn at the beginning of training is actually how to learn the thing they’re doing. Once they get that down and achieve some level of neuroplasticity related to learning the tasks they’re trying to do, their learning going forward is enhanced and proceeds at a different rate than it did in the beginning.
I have seen this across many decades of teaching martial arts and also in my own practices and learning. In recent years I’ve expanded my repertoire to include more Chinese martial arts. The teaching methodologies of these traditions differ wildly from my prior experiences in Japanese and Okinawan martial arts. A big part of my ability to learn those new traditions was actually understanding how to “learn the learning”. In each case, once I worked through the hard work of learning how to learn, subsequent training was easier to do.
A takeaway is that steady work and dedication to learning skills and abilities will lead to better learning in the future. We just have to endure the upfront discomfort in the brain for beneficial long-term gain. This applies whether we are learning how to play guitar, apply a wrist lock, or implement strategies in cognitive-behavioral therapy. Like all things, it gets better with practice, and present practice can enhance future plasticity.
(c) E. Paul Zehr (2023)
References
Kweon J, Vigne MM, Jones RN, Carpenter LL and Brown JC (2023) Practice makes plasticity: 10-Hz rTMS enhances LTP-like plasticity in musicians and athletes. Front. Neural Circuits 17:1124221. doi: 10.3389/fncir.2023.1124221
2. Speculators/Hedge Funds Short the S&P and 10 Year Treasury
Liz Ann Sonders Schwab Just as large speculators/hedge funds have built largest net short position for S&P 500 futures since 2011 (blue), leveraged investors have also boosted net short positions on 10y U.S. Treasury futures (orange) to record
3. Market Still Pricing in Deep Rate Cuts in Next 18 Months.
The Daily Shot Brief The market continues to price in deep rate cuts over the next 18 months amid concerns about the banking sector and the debt ceiling. This chart shows the near term forward spread of the three-month Treasury bill.
Source: The Daily Shot
4. S&P Futures Positioning is the Most Bearish in 10 Years
Equities: S&P 500 futures positioning is the most bearish in over a decade.
Grant Interest Rate ObserverWork from home comes home to roost: Vornado Realty Trust dropped a late afternoon thunderbolt yesterday, announcing it will postpone dividend payments until the end of the year, at which time shareholders will receive their allotted payout “in either cash, or a combination of cash and securities.”
That belt-tightening initiative from the beleaguered NYC-based office landlord, which will save some $215 million per Morgan Stanley, caught industry observers off guard. “It’s a big surprise,” Alex Goldfarb, analyst at Piper Sandler remarked, adding that such a drastic step “suggests more going on inside [corporate headquarters] than the Street appreciates.”
Further coloring that maneuver is the real estate investment trust also announced that the board of directors has authorized a $200 million stock buyback. Though the repurchase program could help stem the bleeding after a 63% selloff over the past year to leave shares at their lowest level since 1996, Vornado’s balance sheet could also stand for some sprucing up. Net debt stands at near 10 times trailing Ebitda as of Dec. 31, up from 8.5 turns of leverage on the eve of the pandemic.
On March 31, S&P Global slapped a negative outlook on the triple-B-minus rated outfit, warning that “leverage metrics will remain under pressure over the next several quarters.” Moody’s followed suit six days later, adding that “sustained and meaningful weakness in office real estate valuations. . . could impair the REIT’s capital access in 2024 and beyond.” https://www.grantspub.com/almostDailyHTML.cfm?dcid=1276&article=1&email=mtopley%40lansingadv%2Ecom
· The record sales figures, contained within the International Energy Agency’s Global EV Outlook for 2023, continue a trend of sustained growth for the industry.
· “Electric car sales — including battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) — exceeded 10 million last year, up 55% relative to 2021,” the IEA’s report says.
· The Paris-based organization says more than 26 million electric cars were on the world’s roads in 2022, which represents a 60% increase relative to 2021
Electric car sales jumped to more than 10 million last year, with China accounting for roughly 60% of the market, according to a report from the International Energy Agency published Wednesday.
The record sales figures, contained within the IEA’s Global EV Outlook for 2023, continue a trend of sustained growth for the industry.
“Electric car sales — including battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) — exceeded 10 million last year, up 55% relative to 2021,” the IEA’s report said.
“This figure — 10 million EV sales worldwide — exceeds the total number of cars sold across the entire European Union (about 9.5 million vehicles) and is nearly half of the total number of cars sold in China in 2022,” it added.
The IEA defined “sales” within its report as being “an estimate of the number of new vehicles hitting the roads.”
In total, it said more than 26 million electric cars were on the world’s roads in 2022, which represents a 60% increase relative to 2021.
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, or PHEVs, have an internal combustion engine as well as a battery-powered electric motor.
Some regard them as an important tool in the transition toward low- and zero-emission forms of transport. Others, including organizations such as Greenpeace UK, take a dim view of them.
Looking ahead, the Paris-based IEA — seen by many as an authoritative voice on the energy transition — said it was estimating worldwide sales to reach almost 14 million in 2023.
“This explosive growth means electric cars’ share of the overall car market has risen from around 4% in 2020 to 14% in 2022 and is set to increase further to 18% this year, based on the latest IEA projections,” a statement accompanying the report noted.
Chinese market dominant
The IEA described China as being “the frontrunner” when it came to electric car sales. It added that over 50% of electric cars on the road could now be found in the world’s second-largest economy.
“In Europe, the second largest market, electric car sales increased by over 15% in 2022, meaning that more than one in every five cars sold was electric,” the IEA said, adding that U.S. electric car sales had risen by 55% in 2022.
Bloomberg Semiconductors account for 56% of the $330 billion of North American megaprojects announced since 2020, according to Melius Research, which counts $86 billion of US electric-vehicle and battery-plant announcements in the same period.
Russia’s neighbors in Europe have upped their military spending since the invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.
But, as Statista’s Katharina Buchholz notes, even before the war – over the course of the past decade – expenditure on defense had already increased substantially in these nations.
Psychology Today Busy doing something but accomplishing nothing? These 3 tools will help.
KEY POINTS
While being “busy” may seem important, simply being busy to be busy accomplishes nothing.
There are a number of creative ways to help avoid busywork.
It is not only possible to avoid busywork, but rewarding and meaningful as well.
I have worked my entire adult life. I have even worked a portion of my childhood—going door to door washing cars for five dollars a pop in a Los Angeles suburb where I grew up. And in all that time, I have witnessed a phenomenon that took me well into adulthood to understand. That phenomenon is the amazing ability that we humans have to be busy simply to be busy—accomplishing nothing more than meaningless tasks[1]. Literally producing nothing but the perception and appearance of being busy.
It gets worse. On top of that, people who appear to be busy are often esteemed or viewed as being important at work, even if there is no meaningful productivity from all this busyness. It’s quite amazing from a productivity standpoint how many hours are wasted on endless meetings that go nowhere and on paperwork that amounts to nothing—in fact, new research shows that 70 percent of meetings keep employees from doing productive work[2]. So here are three tools I have identified from a creativity and innovation standpoint that can help you keep on track—getting real and meaningful things done—rather than just being busy for busyness’ sake:
1. Ask Questions.
When we ask questions instead of just doing, we uncover some profound reasons why we are doing what we are doing[3]. Far too often, we are driven by the task at hand, and completing the task is our only goal. But we need to broaden that if we are to invite creativity and innovation into our process.
So, instead, ask questions. Questions like “Why are we doing this?” and “Who gets the most benefit?” are a really good start no matter what you are working on. Questions like “Do we benefit internally as much as our customers or clients do externally?” may be even better. When we ask questions—any questions, really—we give our work meaning in a far greater scope than just executing a task.
Asking questions can also lead to creative discoveries. The way that we ask questions and the types of things we are curious about may be completely different from one person to another. So asking questions—especially from multiple team members—uncovers vastly different perspectives on the same problem. In other words, asking questions can reveal a path toward a solution that would never materialize if we hadn’t asked the questions in the first place.
2. Look at History.
If there are certain tasks executed by your company or in your career over and over again with little results—it may be time to look at history. Often, we are so busy in our careers that we are focused on accomplishing the tasks ahead of us, irrespective of where those tasks are leading. It’s almost as if we have our blinders on—not knowing how each part of our tasks go together to make up the whole of what we are doing.
So, for instance, if you are constantly reinventing the wheel at work—say for proposals that need to go out to market—if we look at the history of what is going on and why that is, we can uncover some incredibly creative and innovative tools that can help remedy the situation. We may find in this case that our process for proposals is lacking—or that we don’t fully have a grip on our pricing model, and that is why our proposal process is a mess. Like the domino effect, most issues in business are interrelated. And we may uncover that someone who used to quarterback our proposals has been shifted to another department, and that is where the gap lies. Again—it is all about looking at the history of a particular task and then analyzing how we got to where we are today—and using history to solve problems.
Too often, people are afraid of history because it is seen as something that is “slowing us down,” or “wasting energy,” or something that is “impeding progress in some way.” But I argue that a tree without its roots is no tree at all. If we don’t know what happened yesterday, we can never be prepared to handle what will come tomorrow. So instead of constantly looking forward, it’s good to take a peek back every once and a while to make sure that you are not just busy for busyness’ sake—but you are indeed working to solve issues that matter.
3. Take a Macro View.
There are too many times at work when we subjugate tasks to particular teams without an explanation of the full impact each part has on the whole. This leads to a number of issues, not the least of which is being busy for busyness’ sake. The other main issue that happens is burnout and fatigue, as folks who don’t have a good idea of where the company is going and what their role is in that journey become frustrated and disconnected. A skeptic may say that staff becomes empowered to execute tasks—fair enough—but these tasks are meaningless without a broad-scope macro view as to why the tasks are important in the first place.
So instead, take a macro view. A macro view is a long-term vision or plan that allows for multiple little victories to be achieved along the way. These little victories can be tasks, or they can be something else—but keeping track of these victories and stopping every once and a while to recognize accomplishments is very important. It creates less wasted energy and work for work’s sake—and gives meaning to each person completing the seemingly meaningless tasks. It gives meaning to these tasks and builds a sense of camaraderie that—yes—the tasks can be done, and they lead to a bigger macro picture. And that is something that everyone can contribute to and feel proud to accomplish. Nobody uses the appearance of being busy if they know how important their role is in the entire apparatus.
The myth of being busy for busyness’ sake is a damaging enterprise across all levels. Who hasn’t worked somewhere where being chained to your computer and “doing something” all day was seen as a job well done—regardless of whether the “doing something” was of any value? But there is hope. Just doing things and endlessly grinding over tasks that may or may not be important is not only a waste of time, but it is also demoralizing and leads to burnout and disengagement[1]. The three tools above can help you institute a new process that will lead to meaningful work instead of busy work—and there is plenty here to boost creativity and drive innovation and meaning for your business and career moving forward.
1. Retail Investors Losing Money Daily on Zero Dated Options
Marketwatch How popular have “0DTEs,” or option contracts with zero days until expiration become? The below chart, from a study by researchers at the University of Muenster, shows an explosion in the number of investors trying their hand in trading S&P 500 options from 2020 into this year.
UNIVERSITY OF MUENSTER
But beyond the chart are some unsettling numbers. The researchers note that between February 2021 and February 2023, retail investors lost $184,000 on the average day, but since the introduction of a daily expiration calendar in May of 2022 — meaning they can trade expiring options everyday — average losses have totaled $358,000 per day.
“We find that retail investors correctly take the expensiveness of 0DTE options into account when placing their orders, but that the substantial spreads charged by market makers lead to significant losses. Our study is a cautionary tale against unrestricted access to highly complex trading vehicles by investors who lack sufficient financial education,” said the researchers.
Bespoke Investment Group If you haven’t checked the price of lithium lately, you might be in for a surprise. Spot prices for lithium carbonate in China have collapsed by two-thirds since hitting record highs in November of last year. Prices have gone from $84k per ton to $25k per ton. That unwinds the vast majority of a spectacular surge that played out from 2020 to 2022. Lithium initially surged 1,279% from July 2020 to March 2022 as part of the broader explosion of commodity prices and booming demand for electric vehicles, eventually peaking up 1,387% from the post-COVID lows. It’s easy to forget that this critical battery input had already gone through one such cycle. A 224% rally in 6 months during late 2015 and early 2016 before a long, slow bear market that saw prices down 78% over several years.
In the equity market, the price cycle hasn’t been as dramatic in percentage terms, but there has still nonetheless been a double cycle of surging stock prices in 2016 followed by a grinding bear market, and then an even more dramatic surge through late 2022 that is now sliding into reverse. On Thursday, Chile’s government announced reforms to its lithium extraction policy. While existing contracts with firms that operate in the rich lithium brine deposits of the Chilean Atacama desert will be honored, the market is looking at weaker lithium prices and the fact that existing contracts will be replaced by less favorable ones 10+ years down the line and hitting lithium players. SQM is off 21% today while ALB is 10% lower.
Millennials were more likely than any other generation to flee the stock market during last year’s rout. That meant they were also more likely to miss out on the subsequent rally.Those were the results of a survey released Monday by Ernst & Young’s wealth management unit, which found that nearly half of millennial respondents turned to cash amid the market volatility. By comparison, just 34% of Gen X and 24% of Baby Boomers sought safety in cash.
The survey of more than 2,600 clients was conducted from October to November, right around the time the stock market bottomed. Since its low on Oct. 12, the S&P 500 Index has jumped about 16%. Despite the stock rally, cash is increasingly in vogue. Vehicles like high-yield savings accounts, money market funds and certificates of deposit are offering attractive returns for the first time in years amid the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate-hike campaign. Still, there’s plenty of debate over whether those products can compete against inflation and the stock market. There’s also downside to pulling money from stocks: JPMorgan Asset Management data show that investors who were absent for the S&P 500’s 10 best days in the two decades through 2022 received half the gains of those who were in the market for the entire period.
Investors Pay Steep Price for Missing Best Days of Rally Performance of $10,000 invested in S&P 500 in 20 years to end of 2022
Source: JPMorgan Asset Management
Baby Boomers are more likely than millennials to work closely with a financial adviser, which may have encouraged them to stay invested during the market volatility, said Mike Lee, leader of EY Global Wealth & Asset Management. They may also have a stronger stomach for market swings after watching past market recoveries, including the rebound after the 2008 financial crisis, he said.
EY Global Wealth & Asset Management found that more clients may flock to cash. “If volatility continues, a greater proportion of clients (43%) would further increase their exposure to savings and deposits,” the report said.
The survey used the following age definitions: Millennials (21-41), Gen X (42-57) and Baby Boomers (58 and over)
Bloomberg Dani RomeroLandlords in Houston and Dallas are having a tougher time filling their empty office buildings with new tenants than any other market in the country, according to office market statistics compiled by CoStar and JPMorgan.Why? One reason: They overbuilt when interest rates were low.
Between 2010 and 2021 the Dallas and Houston metro areas put up 48 million and 46 million square feet of new office space, according to 42 Floors, more than any other place in the country except New York City. They were No. 1 and No. 2 when counting all commercial real estate construction during that period.
Their biggest challenge is selling tenants on the older space put up during previous booms decades ago. Newer buildings that were built five years ago or less have single-digit vacancy, according to Aguirre, while older space from the 1980s is a much harder sell.
“There’s not a ton of prime space,” said Bill Kitchens, director of market analytics at CoStar Group. “We really do have to look at the configuration, the quality of the space, all those considerations that the tenants are still focused on.”
Some landlords are turning to discounts on space that can be subleased from tenants who downsized or ditched their office space for newer digs. In Houston, office subleases are being discounted by 25%-60%, according to CoStar.
“The discounts out there really haven’t moved the needle, that’s the long and short of it,” Kitchens added. “It’s going to continue to be a headache not only for our market, [but] major markets in the U.S.”
Dani Romero is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter @daniromerotv
fever, is an allergic reaction to irritants such as airborne pollens or molds that often occur in the spring. PHOTO: ALEXI ROSENFELD/GETTY IMAGES
This year’s allergy season is especially bad, making life miserable for annual sufferers as well as people who thought seasonal allergies didn’t affect them.
The pollen season this year started earlier and more forcefully than usual in some parts of the U.S., say allergists and pollen counters, meaning that even those without diagnosed allergies are wheezing, sneezing and reporting irritated and puffy eyes.
“This time of year, even people who don’t have a history of seasonal allergies can be symptomatic,” says Dr. Joyce Yu, a pediatric allergist-immunologist at Columbia University Irving Medical Center. “This winter, since it has been somewhat warm, the trees have been pollinating on the earlier side.”
True allergic rhinitis, also known as seasonal allergies or hay fever, is an allergic reaction to irritants such as airborne pollens or molds that often occur in the spring, when warmer temperatures lead trees to release pollen. About 25% of U.S. adults and 19% of children have been diagnosed with seasonal allergies, according to the National Center for Health Statistics.
Part of the reason this year is packing a bigger punch for many of us, allergists and environmental researchers say, is a warmer-than-usual winter, which meant pollen season got off to an early start. High levels of pollen can produce allergy-like symptoms, irritating the eyes and sinuses like any other environmental debris, such as campfire smoke, says Dr. Courtney Jackson Blair, an allergist-immunologist in McLean, Va.
Over-the-counter treatments such as nasal sprays and oral antihistamines might help symptoms regardless of whether they are true allergies or just irritation. Doctors recommend that people with allergy-like symptoms see a provider to rule out other health problems and develop treatment plans
Editor’s note (2010): When the members of the class of 2010 entered business school, the economy was strong and their post-graduation ambitions could be limitless. Just a few weeks later, the economy went into a tailspin. They’ve spent the past two years recalibrating their worldview and their definition of success. The students seem highly aware of how the world has changed (as the sampling of views in this article shows). In the spring, Harvard Business School’s graduating class asked HBS professor Clay Christensen to address them—but not on how to apply his principles and thinking to their post-HBS careers. The students wanted to know how to apply them to their personal lives. He shared with them a set of guidelines that have helped him find meaning in his own life. Though Christensen’s thinking comes from his deep religious faith, we believe that these are strategies anyone can use. And so we asked him to share them with the readers of HBR.
Before I published The Innovator’s Dilemma, I got a call from Andrew Grove, then the chairman of Intel. He had read one of my early papers about disruptive technology, and he asked if I could talk to his direct reports and explain my research and what it implied for Intel. Excited, I flew to Silicon Valley and showed up at the appointed time, only to have Grove say, “Look, stuff has happened. We have only 10 minutes for you. Tell us what your model of disruption means for Intel.” I said that I couldn’t—that I needed a full 30 minutes to explain the model, because only with it as context would any comments about Intel make sense. Ten minutes into my explanation, Grove interrupted: “Look, I’ve got your model. Just tell us what it means for Intel.”
I insisted that I needed 10 more minutes to describe how the process of disruption had worked its way through a very different industry, steel, so that he and his team could understand how disruption worked. I told the story of how Nucor and other steel minimills had begun by attacking the lowest end of the market—steel reinforcing bars, or rebar—and later moved up toward the high end, undercutting the traditional steel mills.
When I finished the minimill story, Grove said, “OK, I get it. What it means for Intel is…,” and then went on to articulate what would become the company’s strategy for going to the bottom of the market to launch the Celeron processor.
I’ve thought about that a million times since. If I had been suckered into telling Andy Grove what he should think about the microprocessor business, I’d have been killed. But instead of telling him what to think, I taught him how to think—and then he reached what I felt was the correct decision on his own.
That experience had a profound influence on me. When people ask what I think they should do, I rarely answer their question directly. Instead, I run the question aloud through one of my models. I’ll describe how the process in the model worked its way through an industry quite different from their own. And then, more often than not, they’ll say, “OK, I get it.” And they’ll answer their own question more insightfully than I could have.
My class at HBS is structured to help my students understand what good management theory is and how it is built. To that backbone I attach different models or theories that help students think about the various dimensions of a general manager’s job in stimulating innovation and growth. In each session we look at one company through the lenses of those theories—using them to explain how the company got into its situation and to examine what managerial actions will yield the needed results.
On the last day of class, I ask my students to turn those theoretical lenses on themselves, to find cogent answers to three questions: First, how can I be sure that I’ll be happy in my career? Second, how can I be sure that my relationships with my spouse and my family become an enduring source of happiness? Third, how can I be sure I’ll stay out of jail? Though the last question sounds lighthearted, it’s not. Two of the 32 people in my Rhodes scholar class spent time in jail. Jeff Skilling of Enron fame was a classmate of mine at HBS. These were good guys—but something in their lives sent them off in the wrong direction.
Doing deals doesn’t yield the deep rewards that come from building up people.
As the students discuss the answers to these questions, I open my own life to them as a case study of sorts, to illustrate how they can use the theories from our course to guide their life decisions.
One of the theories that gives great insight on the first question—how to be sure we find happiness in our careers—is from Frederick Herzberg, who asserts that the powerful motivator in our lives isn’t money; it’s the opportunity to learn, grow in responsibilities, contribute to others, and be recognized for achievements. I tell the students about a vision of sorts I had while I was running the company I founded before becoming an academic. In my mind’s eye I saw one of my managers leave for work one morning with a relatively strong level of self-esteem. Then I pictured her driving home to her family 10 hours later, feeling unappreciated, frustrated, underutilized, and demeaned. I imagined how profoundly her lowered self-esteem affected the way she interacted with her children. The vision in my mind then fast-forwarded to another day, when she drove home with greater self-esteem—feeling that she had learned a lot, been recognized for achieving valuable things, and played a significant role in the success of some important initiatives. I then imagined how positively that affected her as a spouse and a parent. My conclusion: Management is the most noble of professions if it’s practiced well. No other occupation offers as many ways to help others learn and grow, take responsibility and be recognized for achievement, and contribute to the success of a team. More and more MBA students come to school thinking that a career in business means buying, selling, and investing in companies. That’s unfortunate. Doing deals doesn’t yield the deep rewards that come from building up people.
I want students to leave my classroom knowing that.
Create a Strategy for Your Life
A theory that is helpful in answering the second question—How can I ensure that my relationship with my family proves to be an enduring source of happiness?—concerns how strategy is defined and implemented. Its primary insight is that a company’s strategy is determined by the types of initiatives that management invests in. If a company’s resource allocation process is not managed masterfully, what emerges from it can be very different from what management intended. Because companies’ decision-making systems are designed to steer investments to initiatives that offer the most tangible and immediate returns, companies shortchange investments in initiatives that are crucial to their long-term strategies.
Over the years I’ve watched the fates of my HBS classmates from 1979 unfold; I’ve seen more and more of them come to reunions unhappy, divorced, and alienated from their children. I can guarantee you that not a single one of them graduated with the deliberate strategy of getting divorced and raising children who would become estranged from them. And yet a shocking number of them implemented that strategy. The reason? They didn’t keep the purpose of their lives front and center as they decided how to spend their time, talents, and energy.
It’s quite startling that a significant fraction of the 900 students that HBS draws each year from the world’s best have given little thought to the purpose of their lives. I tell the students that HBS might be one of their last chances to reflect deeply on that question. If they think that they’ll have more time and energy to reflect later, they’re nuts, because life only gets more demanding: You take on a mortgage; you’re working 70 hours a week; you have a spouse and children.
For me, having a clear purpose in my life has been essential. But it was something I had to think long and hard about before I understood it. When I was a Rhodes scholar, I was in a very demanding academic program, trying to cram an extra year’s worth of work into my time at Oxford. I decided to spend an hour every night reading, thinking, and praying about why God put me on this earth. That was a very challenging commitment to keep, because every hour I spent doing that, I wasn’t studying applied econometrics. I was conflicted about whether I could really afford to take that time away from my studies, but I stuck with it—and ultimately figured out the purpose of my life.
Had I instead spent that hour each day learning the latest techniques for mastering the problems of autocorrelation in regression analysis, I would have badly misspent my life. I apply the tools of econometrics a few times a year, but I apply my knowledge of the purpose of my life every day. It’s the single most useful thing I’ve ever learned. I promise my students that if they take the time to figure out their life purpose, they’ll look back on it as the most important thing they discovered at HBS. If they don’t figure it out, they will just sail off without a rudder and get buffeted in the very rough seas of life. Clarity about their purpose will trump knowledge of activity-based costing, balanced scorecards, core competence, disruptive innovation, the four Ps, and the five forces.
My purpose grew out of my religious faith, but faith isn’t the only thing that gives people direction. For example, one of my former students decided that his purpose was to bring honesty and economic prosperity to his country and to raise children who were as capably committed to this cause, and to each other, as he was. His purpose is focused on family and others—as mine is.
The choice and successful pursuit of a profession is but one tool for achieving your purpose. But without a purpose, life can become hollow.
Allocate Your Resources
Your decisions about allocating your personal time, energy, and talent ultimately shape your life’s strategy.
I have a bunch of “businesses” that compete for these resources: I’m trying to have a rewarding relationship with my wife, raise great kids, contribute to my community, succeed in my career, contribute to my church, and so on. And I have exactly the same problem that a corporation does. I have a limited amount of time and energy and talent. How much do I devote to each of these pursuits?
Allocation choices can make your life turn out to be very different from what you intended. Sometimes that’s good: Opportunities that you never planned for emerge. But if you misinvest your resources, the outcome can be bad. As I think about my former classmates who inadvertently invested for lives of hollow unhappiness, I can’t help believing that their troubles relate right back to a short-term perspective.
When people who have a high need for achievement—and that includes all Harvard Business School graduates—have an extra half hour of time or an extra ounce of energy, they’ll unconsciously allocate it to activities that yield the most tangible accomplishments. And our careers provide the most concrete evidence that we’re moving forward. You ship a product, finish a design, complete a presentation, close a sale, teach a class, publish a paper, get paid, get promoted. In contrast, investing time and energy in your relationship with your spouse and children typically doesn’t offer that same immediate sense of achievement. Kids misbehave every day. It’s really not until 20 years down the road that you can put your hands on your hips and say, “I raised a good son or a good daughter.” You can neglect your relationship with your spouse, and on a day-to-day basis, it doesn’t seem as if things are deteriorating. People who are driven to excel have this unconscious propensity to underinvest in their families and overinvest in their careers—even though intimate and loving relationships with their families are the most powerful and enduring source of happiness.
If you study the root causes of business disasters, over and over you’ll find this predisposition toward endeavors that offer immediate gratification. If you look at personal lives through that lens, you’ll see the same stunning and sobering pattern: people allocating fewer and fewer resources to the things they would have once said mattered most.
Create a Culture
There’s an important model in our class called the Tools of Cooperation, which basically says that being a visionary manager isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. It’s one thing to see into the foggy future with acuity and chart the course corrections that the company must make. But it’s quite another to persuade employees who might not see the changes ahead to line up and work cooperatively to take the company in that new direction. Knowing what tools to wield to elicit the needed cooperation is a critical managerial skill.
The theory arrays these tools along two dimensions—the extent to which members of the organization agree on what they want from their participation in the enterprise, and the extent to which they agree on what actions will produce the desired results. When there is little agreement on both axes, you have to use “power tools”—coercion, threats, punishment, and so on—to secure cooperation. Many companies start in this quadrant, which is why the founding executive team must play such an assertive role in defining what must be done and how. If employees’ ways of working together to address those tasks succeed over and over, consensus begins to form. MIT’s Edgar Schein has described this process as the mechanism by which a culture is built. Ultimately, people don’t even think about whether their way of doing things yields success. They embrace priorities and follow procedures by instinct and assumption rather than by explicit decision—which means that they’ve created a culture. Culture, in compelling but unspoken ways, dictates the proven, acceptable methods by which members of the group address recurrent problems. And culture defines the priority given to different types of problems. It can be a powerful management tool.
In using this model to address the question, How can I be sure that my family becomes an enduring source of happiness?, my students quickly see that the simplest tools that parents can wield to elicit cooperation from children are power tools. But there comes a point during the teen years when power tools no longer work. At that point parents start wishing that they had begun working with their children at a very young age to build a culture at home in which children instinctively behave respectfully toward one another, obey their parents, and choose the right thing to do. Families have cultures, just as companies do. Those cultures can be built consciously or evolve inadvertently.
If you want your kids to have strong self-esteem and confidence that they can solve hard problems, those qualities won’t magically materialize in high school. You have to design them into your family’s culture—and you have to think about this very early on. Like employees, children build self-esteem by doing things that are hard and learning what works.
Avoid the “Marginal Costs” Mistake
We’re taught in finance and economics that in evaluating alternative investments, we should ignore sunk and fixed costs, and instead base decisions on the marginal costs and marginal revenues that each alternative entails. We learn in our course that this doctrine biases companies to leverage what they have put in place to succeed in the past, instead of guiding them to create the capabilities they’ll need in the future. If we knew the future would be exactly the same as the past, that approach would be fine. But if the future’s different—and it almost always is—then it’s the wrong thing to do.
This theory addresses the third question I discuss with my students—how to live a life of integrity (stay out of jail). Unconsciously, we often employ the marginal cost doctrine in our personal lives when we choose between right and wrong. A voice in our head says, “Look, I know that as a general rule, most people shouldn’t do this. But in this particular extenuating circumstance, just this once, it’s OK.” The marginal cost of doing something wrong “just this once” always seems alluringly low. It suckers you in, and you don’t ever look at where that path ultimately is headed and at the full costs that the choice entails. Justification for infidelity and dishonesty in all their manifestations lies in the marginal cost economics of “just this once.”
I’d like to share a story about how I came to understand the potential damage of “just this once” in my own life. I played on the Oxford University varsity basketball team. We worked our tails off and finished the season undefeated. The guys on the team were the best friends I’ve ever had in my life. We got to the British equivalent of the NCAA tournament—and made it to the final four. It turned out the championship game was scheduled to be played on a Sunday. I had made a personal commitment to God at age 16 that I would never play ball on Sunday. So I went to the coach and explained my problem. He was incredulous. My teammates were, too, because I was the starting center. Every one of the guys on the team came to me and said, “You’ve got to play. Can’t you break the rule just this one time?”
I’m a deeply religious man, so I went away and prayed about what I should do. I got a very clear feeling that I shouldn’t break my commitment—so I didn’t play in the championship game.
In many ways that was a small decision—involving one of several thousand Sundays in my life. In theory, surely I could have crossed over the line just that one time and then not done it again. But looking back on it, resisting the temptation whose logic was “In this extenuating circumstance, just this once, it’s OK” has proven to be one of the most important decisions of my life. Why? My life has been one unending stream of extenuating circumstances. Had I crossed the line that one time, I would have done it over and over in the years that followed.
The lesson I learned from this is that it’s easier to hold to your principles 100% of the time than it is to hold to them 98% of the time. If you give in to “just this once,” based on a marginal cost analysis, as some of my former classmates have done, you’ll regret where you end up. You’ve got to define for yourself what you stand for and draw the line in a safe place.
Remember the Importance of Humility
I got this insight when I was asked to teach a class on humility at Harvard College. I asked all the students to describe the most humble person they knew. One characteristic of these humble people stood out: They had a high level of self-esteem. They knew who they were, and they felt good about who they were. We also decided that humility was defined not by self-deprecating behavior or attitudes but by the esteem with which you regard others. Good behavior flows naturally from that kind of humility. For example, you would never steal from someone, because you respect that person too much. You’d never lie to someone, either.
It’s crucial to take a sense of humility into the world. By the time you make it to a top graduate school, almost all your learning has come from people who are smarter and more experienced than you: parents, teachers, bosses. But once you’ve finished at Harvard Business School or any other top academic institution, the vast majority of people you’ll interact with on a day-to-day basis may not be smarter than you. And if your attitude is that only smarter people have something to teach you, your learning opportunities will be very limited. But if you have a humble eagerness to learn something from everybody, your learning opportunities will be unlimited. Generally, you can be humble only if you feel really good about yourself—and you want to help those around you feel really good about themselves, too. When we see people acting in an abusive, arrogant, or demeaning manner toward others, their behavior almost always is a symptom of their lack of self-esteem. They need to put someone else down to feel good about themselves.
Choose the Right Yardstick
This past year I was diagnosed with cancer and faced the possibility that my life would end sooner than I’d planned. Thankfully, it now looks as if I’ll be spared. But the experience has given me important insight into my life.
I have a pretty clear idea of how my ideas have generated enormous revenue for companies that have used my research; I know I’ve had a substantial impact. But as I’ve confronted this disease, it’s been interesting to see how unimportant that impact is to me now. I’ve concluded that the metric by which God will assess my life isn’t dollars but the individual people whose lives I’ve touched.
I think that’s the way it will work for us all. Don’t worry about the level of individual prominence you have achieved; worry about the individuals you have helped become better people. This is my final recommendation: Think about the metric by which your life will be judged, and make a resolution to live every day so that in the end, your life will be judged a success.
A version of this article appeared in the July–August 2010 issue of Harvard Business Review.
Clayton M. Christensen was the Kim B. Clark Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School and a frequent contributor to Harvard Business Review.
1. From Charlie Bilello…The Spread Between 3 Month and 1 Month Treasury Yields Highest Ever
The spread between 3-month (5.14%) and 1-month (3.36%) Treasury yields has never been higher: 1.78%.
What’s going on here? There a number of theories going around, but the one that’s gaining the most traction seems to be concerns about a US debt default due to the debt ceiling…
The cost to insure against a US debt default has risen to 90 bps, a record high.
Is the US actually going to default in the next few months? Of course not. They’ll raise the debt ceiling and borrow more money like they always do.
2. At the Same Time…Bond Volatility Index MOVE Dropped from $200 to $120
8. Downtown San Fran Cellphone Activity at 31% of Pre-Pandemic Levels.
Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist Apollo, Partner Data from downtowns show that cellphone activity in San Francisco is at 31% of pre-pandemic levels, see chart below. New York is at 74% and Chicago is at 50% of 2019 levels. Boston is at 54% of pre-pandemic levels. This has implications for retail, restaurants, and office.
9. Median Household by Ethnic Group.
10. WSJ on Happy People.
Good morning. What do very happy people have in common? The Wall Street Journal followed up with the 12% of respondents in a WSJ-NORC survey who called themselves “very happy” and asked them what they were all about. Here are the traits they share.
Companionship: 67% of the happiest people said that marriage was very important to them, compared to 43% of overall respondents.
Religion: Two-thirds of very happy people characterized themselves as moderately or very religious. The overall share: less than half.
Closer to death: People 60 and over accounted for 44% of the happiest group, but represented 30% of total survey respondents.
Gym rats: Fitness was a common interest among very happy people.
What doesn’t seem to matter to being very happy?Political party affiliation or avoiding following politics.
“On net, the credit spreads do not, as of now, signal recession,” said Silvia. “Moody’s Baa spread is the dog that didn’t bark.”
The current spread has not broken above to a higher level on a sustained basis, as seen just before or during the early phase of a recession in past periods, said Silvia, citing the fourth quarter of 1998, first quarter of 2008 and the fourth quarter of 2018 as examples. But “the caution flag remains out” for investors, according to his note. Investors are worried that bank lending standards will become tighter, prompting a recession in the next year, he said. “As illustrated in the graph below, a sharp rise in the benchmark measurement of tighter standards does signal an oncoming recession,” said Silvia. “We saw this in 1999 and very sharp rises in 2007, and the 2020 period.”
DYNAMIC ECONOMIC STRATEGY NOTE DATED APRIL 19, 2023
7. U.S. Household Balance Sheets in Excellent Shape.
Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, Partner Apollo Global Management-US households are in excellent shape, the ratio of liabilities to net wealth has declined 50% since the 2008 financial crisis, and household leverage is currently at levels last seen in the early 1980s, see chart below. If the unemployment rate rises, consumer spending will slow down, but the starting point for US households is very strong.
8. Euro Large Cap 50 One Tick From Break Out Highs
$47 print new highs
50 week turning up about to go thru 200 week to upside.
1. Nasdaq 100 30x trailing earnings to 40x trailing earnings in 2 Months.
Following a 20% rally in the year-to-date, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 now trades at nearly 40 times trailing earnings, Verdad Weekly Research relays, citing data from Capital IQ, up from just over 30 times in early January. From Grant Interest Rate Observer https://www.grantspub.com/
2. History….Six Months After 20% Correction
From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading It’s been 6 months since the S&P’s low – “Since WW2, we found 13 prior periods in which the SPX made a major low after a 20%+ drop and then didn’t make a new low in the next six months .. Six and twelve months after,.. the S&P 500 was higher 12 times” says Bespoke.
Chartr For richer, for poorer New analysis of government figures by Pew Research Center reveals that women in opposite-sex marriages are increasingly earning more than, or the same as, their husbands.
The study found that men are now the sole or primary earners in just 55% of American marriages compared to 85% in 1972, with a large portion of those households now “egalitarian” — marriages where the husband and wife each account for 40-60% of the household’s total income. BreadwinnersOne of the more notable findings from the study is that 16% of opposite-sex marriages now have the wife as the primary or sole breadwinner. That’s a proportion that has more than tripled in the last 50 years, but was actually a slight drop on the equivalent study from 2012. The rise of wives as breadwinners is unsurprising in the context of wider societal shifts in America, as the female share of overall income in North America continues to rise, and women now account for nearly60% of college students across the country. However, while their share of marital earnings is on the up, Pew Research also found that women are still doing the larger share of work around the home too, spending ~2 more hours a week on caregiving responsibilities and more than double the amount of time on housework.
What does it truly mean to be rich vs wealthy? Is there a difference between them, or are they merely two sides of the same coin? While these terms might seem interchangeable at first glance (I’ve been guilty of this many times before), they actually represent two distinct mindsets that can significantly impact your financial future.
In this blog post, I will do a deep dive on the rich vs wealthy debate to debunk common misconceptions on the subtle, yet critical differences that set these financial lifestyles apart. By the end, you’ll not only have a newfound understanding of these terms, but also a clearer vision about which of these is right for you.
To start, let’s take a look at what it means to be rich.
Defining Rich
“Rich” typically refers to individuals who have a high income or possess a substantial amount of money. This status is usually characterized by:
A high salary or business income
A luxurious lifestyle
Expensive possessions such as cars, homes, and designer items
Short-term financial success
While there is no one-size-fits-all definition of what income level is considered rich, the top 10%, top 5%, and top 1% of U.S. household incomes are a good benchmark to consider:
Though these income levels could classify someone as “rich”, as I have mentioned before, factors such as age, education level, and where you live should also be incorporated into the discussion.
Additionally, it’s important to remember that having a high level of income doesn’t guarantee financial stability or lasting prosperity. In fact, a high income can create a false sense of financial security, leading individuals to overspend and neglect building wealth for the long term. In this sense, being rich isn’t about a particular level of income, but a consumption-focused mindset (and the luxury lifestyle that comes along with it).
History is rife with examples of rich celebrities and athletes that lost it all thanks to their poor financial choices. However, my favorite case study is The Vanderbilts. Not only did the Vanderbilts buy nine mansions on Fifth Avenue in New York City (some of the most expensive real estate in the world), but they also threw extravagant parties where they dined on horseback and regularly lit their cigars with $100 bills (in the early 1900s!). It wasn’t long before everything came crashing down in the Great Depression and they lost the bulk of their family fortune.
The key takeaway from their example is that prioritizing material possessions can lead to a precarious financial situation, even for the richest among us. This is why, as we’ll see in the next section, being wealthy requires a different approach to money management altogether.
Defining Wealthy
Being wealthy is about more than just having money. It’s about accumulating assets and resources that generate income for long-term financial security. This financial status is characterized by:
A diverse portfolio of investments
Passive income streams
Financial independence
Long-term financial planning and stability
Though we don’t have an explicit definition of “wealthy”, the net worth needed to be in the top 10%, top 5%, and top 1% of U.S. households, according to the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), is a decent proxy:
If you are shocked by these amounts, I wouldn’t worry. These net worth figures are highlydependent on age, education level, and your geographical location (just like the income numbers in the prior section). If you are younger, have less education, or live in a lower cost of living area, you are likely much wealthier than these figures suggest.
But this misses a bigger point on what it really means to be wealthy. Because being wealthy isn’t a number, it’s a lifestyle. A lifestyle where you don’t have to actively work for your income. A lifestyle where you can pursue your passions and interests. A lifestyle where you are free to do what you want.
So, while age and geographic location are important, your wants and needs will have a much bigger impact on how wealthy you actually feel. This is why I like to say:
Your net worth doesn’t determine how wealthy you are, your desires do.
Therefore, if you want to feel wealthier you can either: (1) increase your net worth or (2) decrease your desires. This is how you can have far less than someone else while still feeling like you have much more.
How to Become Financially Wealthy
No matter how you decide to go about it, the journey to wealth often begins with a shift in mindset. You will need to turn your focus away from short-term material gain and towards a more strategic, long-term approach to managing your finances. Here are a few ways you can do this:
Focus on raising your income: If there’s one idea I wish I could relay to every person about personal finance, it’s that income is the key to building wealth. Besides those successful business owners who built extreme wealth (i.e. billionaires), basically everyone else did it through their income. So, if you want to build more wealth, you should focus on raising your income over the long run. I’ve detailed some ways to do this in Ch. 3 of Just Keep Buying if you want to learn more.
Invest in a diverse set of income producing assets: Once you have raised your income, the next step is to use that extra income to acquire income producing assets and don’t stop. By purchasing income producing assets over time, you can re-build yourself as a financial asset equivalent that can provide you with income when you are unwilling or unable to work in the future. While it’s great to work hard for your money, it’s even better when your money works hard for you.
Create additional streams of income: In the process of buying income producing assets, you will create additional income streams for yourself (e.g. from dividends and interest). But I wouldn’t stop there. There are many other income streams that you should consider (i.e. royalties, products, etc.) as well. The primary benefit of having multiple income streams is that you reduce your overall financial risk. Having extra streams of income in case you lose your main one (likely your job) can be a financial lifesaver when you need it most.
Plan for the life you want: While building wealth is important, knowing what you want to do with your wealth is even more important. Because without a plan for how you want to use your wealth, you may end up feeling empty once you’ve built it. I have previously written about how this occurs for some in the Financial Independence Retire Early (FIRE) community, but it doesn’t have to be that way. By figuring out what you actually want out of life, you can take more purposeful steps toward building wealth in the way that matches your long term goals. That’s how you become wealthy
If you are interested in learning more about this subject, I recommend reading about where millionaires keep their money and why it’s not where you think.
Now that we have spent some time defining “rich” and “wealthy”, let’s highlight the key differences in the rich vs wealthy discussion to illustrate where you should focus your future efforts.
Rich vs Wealthy: What are the Differences?
Imagine two individuals, Mr. Rich and Ms. Wealthy, who represent the contrasting financial mindsets we’ve covered above.
Mr. Rich earns an impressive salary and loves to showcase his success with luxury cars, designer clothes, and extravagant vacations. He is the life of the party and appears to have it all. However, his high-income is matched by his high spending habits, leaving him with little savings or investments. Should his income suddenly disappear, Mr. Rich’s financial situation would quickly crumble, revealing the facade of his seemingly successful lifestyle.
Ms. Wealthy, on the other hand, earns a similar income to Mr. Rich but chooses to live a more modest lifestyle. She invests a significant portion of her earnings into a diverse portfolio of income producing assets that creates passive income streams, such as rental properties and dividend stocks. While she may not have the outward appearance of success, Ms. Wealthy enjoys true financial freedom, knowing that her assets and income will continue to support her lifestyle, regardless of whether she works.
The key differences between Mr. Rich and Ms. Wealthy illustrate these contrasting approaches to personal finance:
Spending vs Saving: Mr. Rich’s spending habits leave him with little financial cushion, while Ms. Wealthy’s savings and investments grow her net worth.
Active vs Passive Income: Mr. Rich relies on his salary to maintain his lifestyle, while Ms. Wealthy’s passive income streams provide her with financial stability and independence.
Appearance vs Reality: Mr. Rich focuses on the outward display of success, while Ms. Wealthy prioritizes her long-term financial well-being and freedom.
Through the example of Mr. Rich and Ms. Wealthy, we can see how the choices we make can impact our financial future.
The Bottom Line
Understanding the difference between rich vs wealthy is crucial for anyone looking to achieve long-term financial success. By recognizing that wealth is about more than just money, you can make the conscious decision to focus on not just building assets and income streams, but also on designing the life you truly desire.
Of course, this is easier said than done. Building wealth can take decades and knowing yourself can take even longer. But, if you do the work and spend the time figuring out what you want, you may just find that becoming wealthy isn’t as out of reach as you once imagined.
1. Huge Options Trading Around Regional Banks as they Report Earnings this Week.
Dave Lutz at Jones Trading Regional bank share prices have stabilised since SVB’s collapse sparked a massive mid-March slide, but traders are buying record amounts of options tied to midsized lenders that had some of the highest volatility, according to Bloomberg data. Several banks that were badly hit in the recent volatility — including Citizens Financial, Charles Schwab and KeyBank — have seen options interest hit record levels, while many more are at multiyear highs. Pricing of the contracts suggests investors expect stock swings for some banks to be up to three times normal levels, according to FT
2. Artificial Intelligence Adoption Rates Across Sectors
7. Vacation Home Demand Slowing Down…-52% from Pre-Pandemic
Vacation Home Slowdown REDFIN BLOG
Demand for vacation homes has plummeted, now 52% below pre-pandemic levels (Redfin).
What’s driving this? Higher interest rates, the lack of affordability, a decline in remote working, and the cooling rental market are all contributing…
9. Even More Young Americans Are Unfit to Serve, a New Study Finds. Here’s Why.
U.S. Marines with Charlie Company, 1st Recruit Training Battalion, stand in formation before the motivational run at Marine Corps Recruit Depot San Diego, Sept. 15, 2022. (Grace J. Kindred/U.S. Marine Corps)
A new study from the Pentagon shows that 77% of young Americans would not qualify for military service without a waiver due to being overweight, using drugs or having mental and physical health problems.
“When considering youth disqualified for one reason alone, the most prevalent disqualification rates are overweight (11%), drug and alcohol abuse (8%), and medical/physical health (7%),” the study, which examined Americans between the ages of 17 and 24, read. The study was conducted by the Pentagon’s office of personnel and readiness.
Mental health accounted for 4% of disqualifications, while aptitude, conduct or being a dependent accounted for 1% each. Most youth, 44%, were disqualified for multiple reasons.
The updated figures paint a picture of what is currently plaguing military recruiters in many of the service branches, with a shrinking pool of potential service members available to them.
Maj. Charlie Dietz, a Department of Defense spokesman, confirmed that the study shared with Military.com was accurate and said all the services are being challenged by the current recruiting environment.
“There are many factors that we are navigating through, such as the fact that youth are more disconnected and disinterested compared to previous generations,” Dietz said. “The declining veteran population and shrinking military footprint has contributed to a market that is unfamiliar with military service resulting in an overreliance of military stereotypes.”
Lawmakers have been raising the alarm over the recruiting environment throughout the year. Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., the ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee personnel panel, said during an April 27 hearing that he was worried the widespread ineligibility of many Americans will contribute to readiness problems.
“To put it bluntly, I am worried we are now in the early days of a long-term threat to the all-volunteer force. [There is] a small and declining number of Americans who are eligible and interested in military service,” Tillis said. He added that “every single metric tracking the military recruiting environment is going in the wrong direction.”
The Council for a Strong America, a nonprofit organization made up of retired military officers, law enforcement and business leaders that advocates for better nutrition and healthy lifestyles among kids, issued a press release expressing alarm at the findings.
The group called on lawmakers in Washington to take action so that younger generations would qualify for military service.
“The retired admirals and generals of Mission: Readiness recognize that the underlying causes of obesity cannot be solved by the efforts of the military alone,” the Council for a Strong America said in a statement. “With an increase in youth being ineligible for military service, it is more important than ever for policymakers, including state and local school boards, to promote healthy eating, increased access to fresh and nutritious foods, and physical activity for children from an early age.”
Dietz told Military.com that the Army and most of the service’s reserve components are in jeopardy of missing their FY2022 recruiting goals.
Aging often comes with cognitive decline, but “SuperAgers” are showing us what is possible in our golden years.
“These are like the Betty Whites of the world,” Emily Rogalski said. She is a cognitive neuroscientist at Northwestern University’s Feinberg School of Medicine and associate director of the Mesulam Center for Cognitive Neurology and Alzheimer’s Disease.
She was part of the research team that coined the term “SuperAgers” 15 years ago. It describes people older than 80 whose memory is as good as those 20 to 30 years younger, if not better.
What researchers are learning from SuperAgers and about dementia prevention could allow us to discover new protective factors in lifestyle, genetics and resilience for common changes that arise with aging.
“It’s invigorating to know that there are good trajectories of aging,” Rogalski said. “It’s possible to live long and live well.”
What a good aging trajectory may look like
There are three major trajectories of aging’s effects on our cognition, Rogalski said.
In the pathologic trajectory, cognition deteriorates faster than expected for the age, as in the case of dementia.
A 2023 report from the Alzheimer’s Association estimates that 1 in 3 Americans older than 85 have Alzheimer’s disease, the most common form of dementia. More hopefully, research has uncovered many of the different risk factors that can be mitigated with lifestyle changes. A 2020 report from Lancet estimates that about 40 percent of dementias may be preventable.
In the normal or average trajectory, research shows, memory and cognitive abilities can begin to decline around your 30s or 40s. By the time most people are 80, on certain memory tests, they can remember about half as much as when they were 50, Rogalski said. Despite being less sharp, older people following this trajectory are still able to function — and thrive — in everyday life.
There is, however, a lot of individual variability.
This variability led to the discovery of the third trajectory: SuperAgers, who even past their 80s appeared to be at least as mentally acute in memory as those in their 50s and 60s.
It is not known what percent of the general population qualifies as SuperAgers, but they appear to be rare, Rogalski said. Even when researchers tried to screen only participants who believed they had good memory, less than 10 percent met the definition.
Over time, researchers followed those enrolled, examining their health, imaging their brains, recording their life histories and asking them to donate their brains to be studied after they die.
“The word I would use to describe this group is resilient,” Rogalski said. Many SuperAgers endured hardship, including extreme poverty, losing family at an early age or surviving Holocaust concentration camps, she said.
One SuperAger lives with his daughter and grandchildren, who do not know much about Frank Sinatra or Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Rogalski said. Instead, the SuperAger asks his grandchildren about their interests: Taylor Swift and Chance the Rapper.
“He laughs at this and finds joy in trying to keep up with what his grandkids are interested in instead of seeing that as too far of a reach or a burden,” Rogalski said. “And I think that that’s a really lovely outlook.”
What makes the brain of a SuperAger special
With age, the brain normally shrinks, especially in the cortex, which is the more evolutionarily recent part of the brain.
Not so with SuperAgers, whose brains appear more youthful in areas implicated in memory and executive abilities.
In the anterior cingulate cortex, a frontal brain region important for many cognitive functions, including attention and memory, SuperAgers had a thicker cortical layer compared with cognitively normal 80-plus-year-olds and even 50-year-olds. SuperAgers also had larger, healthier neurons in the entorhinal cortex, another brain area critical for memory, compared with both their older and 20-to-30-years-younger counterparts.
Intriguingly, SuperAgers also have an abundance of a special type of brain cell known as von Economo neurons, which are believed to be important for social affiliative behaviors. Studies suggest that von Economo neurons were four to five times denser in the anterior cingulate cortex of SuperAgers than in normal 80-year-olds, and even in individuals decades younger.
Becoming a SuperAger is probably partly because of the genetic lottery, but there are many lifestyle factors we can modify to lengthen our cognitive health span as we age.
“Stop being a dementia worrier, start being a prevention warrior,” Mitchell Clionsky said. “The active approach to this is what’s going to make the difference.”
And it is never too late to address the risk factors we can change, Emily Clionsky said. The average age of her patients who saw benefits was the mid-70s. “My oldest patient was over 100,” she said.
There is no one thing that will ensure healthy cognitive aging, but all these factors are interactive, researchers said. If we start chipping away at the dementia risks and pile on protective factors, we can reap positive effects. Here are some that may help:
· Exercise your body. Most people know the importance of getting up and moving, yet don’t always follow through. “I tell them to examine their ‘but,’” Mitchell Clionsky said. Figure out what is getting in the way of exercising and ask “How do we break it down into something you will do,” he said.
· Exercise your brain. The brain loves a challenge, so do activities that engage your noggin.
· Stay connected. Social isolation and loneliness are risk factors for dementia, while social contact is protective.
· Foster resilience. When something bad occurs, try to embrace the challenge. “What in this can be a learning moment? What in this can be a turning point?” Rogalski said.
SuperAgers cannot only help us age better but also reimagine what is possible in older age.
“I think there’s the possibility to set new expectations in aging and to revalue rather than devalue older adults,” Rogalski said.
Do you have a question about human behavior or neuroscience? Email BrainMatters@washpost.com and we may answer it in a future column.
Worldwide shipments of AppleMacs fell to just 4.1 million units in the first quarter of 2023, according toIDC figures, as the wider PC market struggles after reaching near-10-year highs during the pandemic.
Other heavy hitters in the computer hardware market like HP, Lenovo and Dell also had a rough start to the year, with figures dropping 24%, 30% and 31%, respectively, confirming that the brief boom for the PC world now looks to be far behind us.
Shutting down
While the rise of working from home had many rushing out to order new laptops and computers to load Zoom on, the Q1 shipment figure is “noticeably lower” than pre-Covid levels, with analysts speculating that it’s not only a post-pandemic drop off, but also wider economic uncertainty that’sdriving sales down. The 56.9 million PC shipments figure recorded in Q1 is the second lowest in the last 10 years and represents a 29.3% fall from the same period in 2022.
When I was born in 1922, the average life expectancyin the U.S. was 58 years old for men, and 61 years old for women.
So as a 100-year-old practicing medical doctor and neurologist,patients often ask me for tips on how tostayhealthy, happy and mentally sharp.
Good genes and a bit of luck can give you a head start, but here are some lifestyle rules I have lived by over the past century:
1. I don’t spend my days retired.
I’ve been working for more than 75 years, and was even named as the world’s oldest practicing doctor by the Guinness World Records. Sara, my wife of 65 years, also still practices psychoanalysis and psychiatry at age 89.
During the pandemic, I treated patients for five or six days a week. Then I switched to teaching medical residents for up to three days a week. (My hospital just shut down, so I’m currently doing medical legal review work while I look for another role.)
When I’m not working, I like spending time with my four children and 10 grandchildren, snowshoeing, and watching Cleveland sports.
Swimming, jogging, hiking and skiing well into my late-80s has kept me strong and healthy.
While I no longer ski and am not quite as active as I once was, I try to get in at least three miles on my treadmill at a brisk pace most days of the week. Watching Turner Classic Movies in the background helps curb some of the boredom.
Studies have found that something as simple as a 15-minute walk outside could lower your risk of premature death by almost 25%.
3. I don’t smoke.
When I was in high school in the 1930s, I told my father that I wanted to take up smoking. He said, “That’s alright with me. But why would anyone want to put anything but fresh air into his lungs when life is so short as it is?”
That immediately took the fun and excitement out of tobacco for me.
I remember attending medical meetings where doctors would, with a cigarette dangling from their mouths, tell patients to take up smoking because it would “curb your appetite and quiet your nerves.”
Today, we know that cigarette smoking leads to cancer, stroke, peripheral artery disease, coronary artery disease, and other pulmonary and cardiovascular diseases.
4. I don’t restrict myself.
Moderation allows us to live life to the fullest while also keeping us from going overboard and impacting our health in the long run.
I’ll have a martini and New York strip steak occasionally, but not every day. Sara is an excellent chef, and she’s helped me maintain a healthy and varied diet. We have salad with every meal, and enjoy greens like bok choy, broccoli and Brussels sprouts.
The real secret to longevity is that there are no secrets. But we live daily and die once, so we must make the most of the time we have.
5. I don’t let my knowledge go to waste.
Having practiced neurology for over seven decades, I’ve witnessed medicine evolve from lobotomies to the latest computerized imaging techniques.
I thoroughly enjoy teaching my medical residents and students, and I learn a great deal from them as well.
I have also been participating in upcoming documentaryabout my life. It’s been a joy to share stories from my long career with the next generation.
Dr. Howard Tucker is a neurologist from Cleveland, Ohio and was named the ”Oldest Practicing Doctor″ by Guinness World Records. He received his law degree and passed the Ohio Bar Exam in his late 60s, and served as chief of neurology of the Atlantic fleet during the Korean War. A feature documentary about Dr. Tucker is in the works. Follow him on TikTok, Instagram and Facebook.
2. Growth Outperforms Value in Quarter One…”Growth” ETFs Huge Disparity in Sector Holdings
Barrons Invesco S&P 500 Pure Growth (RPG), for example, currently has 28% in energy stocks and only 14% in tech, while iShares S&P 500 Growth (IVW) has 34% in tech and just 8% in energy. Vanguard Mega Cap Growth has more than 50% in tech and less than 1% in energy, while First Trust Large Cap Growth AlphaDEX (FTC) has 16% and 19% in the two sectors, respectively. By Evie Liu
SHANGHAI/SINGAPORE, April 10 (Reuters) – Some shares among the first batch of stocks to list under China’s registration-based initial public offering (IPO) system more than tripled in their debut on Monday despite tepidness in the broader market.
The listing of the 10 companies on the main boards in Shanghai and Shenzhen marks the full roll-out of China’s new U.S.-style IPO mechanism, designed to make public share sales more market oriented.The system has already been adopted by Shanghai’s tech-focused STAR Market, Shenzhen’s start-up board ChiNext and the Beijing Stock Exchange for smaller companies.Shenzhen CECport Technologies Co (001287.SZ), an electronic components distributor based in the southern technology hub of Shenzhen, opened up 161% on Monday, and surged by as much as 239%, after it raised 2.25 billion yuan ($327.18 million).
Under the new rules, there is no daily trading limit for the first five trading days for shares that have listed after an IPO. Previously, new stocks listed on China’s main boards could jump as much as 44% and slump no more than 36% in their debut.
However, after those five days, stocks listed on the main boards will be subject to the regular 10% daily trading limit. Dencare Chongqing Oral Care Co (001328.SZ), an oral products maker, opened up 98% and soared by as much as 214%. The other eight companies, including Shaanxi Energy Investment Co (001286.SZ) and Both Engineering Technology Co (601133.SS), rose by between 50% and 120%.Ade Chen, the general manager of asset manager Fund Investment in Guangzhou, said the stocks surged as “their valuation and debut prices are not expensive”.
CECport Technologies’s IPO was priced at 26.8 times its earnings, below the industry-wide valuation in 2021 of 35 times earnings, according to its prospectus.Dencare’s price-to-earnings ratio for the IPO was 36.8, versus a wider industry valuation of 51.6 in 2021, its prospectus said.
Both figures indicate the companies are undervalued relative to their peers. “Afterwards, investors will focus more on companies’ growth potential and fundamentals,” Chen said.Overall, China’s stock benchmark index (.CSI300), slipped roughly 0.3% on Monday, as investors focused on China’s drills around the Taiwan Strait and awaited more data to gauge the strength of China’s economic recovery after it dropped restrictive COVID-19 policies.The market-oriented IPO system reform is expected to speed up listings and corporate fundraising, as Beijing seeks to revive an economy ravaged by COVID restrictions.
“The changes brought about by the IPO reform are all-round and fundamental, centred by information disclosure,” Yi Huiman, the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) said, according to a report from state media CCTV on Monday.
“The service function of the capital market to the real economy, especially technological innovation, has been greatly improved,” Yi said.
After the housing bubble burst in 2008, construction of new homes declined more than 50%, and residential investment pulled GDP growth down by 1% for three years.
With commercial real estate construction being roughly 75% the size of residential investment, and fewer skyscrapers and shopping malls being built, the bursting CRE bubble could be a drag on GDP growth of around 0.75% over the coming three years. This should be compared with a 2% potential growth rate for the US economy (according to the CBO).
In other words, with the commercial real estate bubble bursting, we are likely to enter three years with low growth, similar to what we saw after the housing bubble burst in 2008. Put differently, once the Fed starts cutting rates later this year, interest rates will likely stay low for several years, and QE is likely to come back in 2024.
Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, PartnerApollo Global Management
People are convinced that stress is leading to their demise, and it’s true that stress can contribute to life-threatening illnesses.
Compared to 100 years ago, dying of stress-related illness in our 70s or 80s is a luxury.
Welcome to Stress on the Brain. In this blog, I’ll be writing about stress and its impacts on the way we think, the way we behave, and the way we get sick. When I first meet someone and the conversation turns to my area of research, the most common response I get is, “You should study me because I’m so stressed!” This response reflects our culture’s attitudes: Stress negatively affects the way we think. Stress negatively affects our health. Stress is going to kill us.
What I tell people in response is both good and bad news. The bad news? Stress is going to kill you. The good news? It’s probably going to take a long time.
What do I mean by this? Consider that 100 years ago, the average life expectancy in the U.S. was about 54 years. Compare that to our current life expectancy of 76 years (in 2021, the most recent year for which data are available).
What was killing people so young 100 years ago?
Among the top five causes of death in 1923 were infectious diseases such as tuberculosis and influenza. Today, by contrast, four of the top five causes of death are stress-related: heart disease, cancer, chronic respiratory diseases, and stroke. (I haven’t forgotten that over 1 million Americans recently died from another infectious disease, COVID-19, but the point remains that most of the maladies that kill us today are made worse by stress.)
Why is this good news? One hundred years ago, most deaths of American adults were due to infectious diseases occurring in their 50s. Today, by contrast, we have the luxury of dying of stress in our late 70s or even older.
Much of this difference is due to the massive successes of public health.
Clean drinking water. Centralized sanitation. Improvements in maternal and infant health programs. These programs have shifted the causes of death for most Americans from acute infections to chronic diseases. Such chronic diseases are strongly impacted by lifestyle factors such as diet and stress.
Take, for example, the number-one killer of adults, heart disease. The cardiovascular system, including the heart and blood vessels, is a particularly sensitive target of stress. The system includes a pump (the heart) and a sequence of elastic tubes (blood vessels), which are always working.
One of the primary stress responses is to increase blood flow to working muscles to outrun a predator on the proverbial savannah. Just like with any mechanical system, the cardiovascular system will eventually wear out with increased use, as when under chronic stress. Modern stress rarely necessitates running from a predator, so the increased wear and tear on our cardiovascular system is for naught. It just hastens the eventual breakdown of the system.
This doesn’t sound like good news, either. But hold on. Advances in cardiovascular medicine reduce the negative impact of the modern lifestyle on our hearts and blood vessels. The negative impact that stress can have on the cardiovascular system can be counteracted with improvements in diet, exercise, and medicine, prolonging the health of the system into our eighth or ninth decade. The impact of stress is still there, but our modern mitigation techniques allow us to maintain a healthy cardiovascular system for much longer.
If all this sounds too good to be true, you’re correct. I’m glossing over a great deal, including the threat of future pandemics, increased number of deaths of despair, and the widening income gap, all of which threaten to wipe out some of the increases in life expectancy we’ve seen over the last 100 years. My message is this: You can now survive stress for longer than ever in our species’ history. Yes, stress will kill you. Until then, stay vigilant to maintain and expand on the gains that we’ve made. Future generations may have the luxury of being stressed for even longer!
From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading In Asia, meanwhile, almost $16bn has flowed into Chinese equities funds, encouraged by Beijing’s reopening after years of stringent coronavirus restrictions. That reopening has also helped in Europe, which is more reliant than the US on exports to China. China accounted for almost half of the $34bn inflows into emerging markets more broadly, according to EPFR
2. History of Nasdaq Bank Index Selloffs
Dragomir Kolev Lessons from prior 20%+ bank sell-offs Over the past 40 years, the NASDAQ Bank Index declined by 20% or more in five sell-offs, as shown below. The average length of those sell-offs was 516 days, and the average peak-to-trough price drop was 47%. The duration of the current sell-off is 447 days, with a 43% decline on April 6 from the 14 January 2022 peak. History suggests that volatility may last a few more months before we reach a bottom, but that bottom is not far from current trading levels. Historically, bank stock rallies have averaged 61% in the 12 months after the bottom is reached.
WSJ By Sam GoldfarbAs of Wednesday, the average extra yield, or spread, above U.S. Treasurys that investors were demanding to hold CMBS with a triple-B rating—the lowest broad investment-grade tier—was 9.52 percentage points, according to an ICE BofA index. That was up from 7.6 percentage points at the end of February and approaching the 10.8 percentage point level reached in March 2020, when local authorities were issuing stay-at-home orders. The average price of the bonds has dropped to around 75 cents on the dollar from roughly 89 cents a year ago.
The Covid-19 pandemic unleashed wave after wave of challenges and feelings of burnout for United States healthcare workers, and unless changes are made to the industry, nearly half plan to leave their current positions, according to a new reportexamining the work environment and industry’s future for clinicians.
Elsevier Health, a provider of information solutions for science, health and technology professionals, conducted its first “Clinician of the Future” globalreport. It revealed current pain points, predictions for the future and how the industry can come together to address gaps—including that 31% of clinicians globally, and 47% of U.S. healthcare workers, plan to leave their current role within the next two to three years.
In the new report from Elsevier Health, published two years after the Covid-19 pandemic began, thousands of doctors and nurses from across the globe revealed what is needed to fill gaps and future-proof today’s healthcare system. The comprehensive “Clinician of the Future” report was conducted in partnership with Ipsos and uncovered how undervalued doctors and nurses feel, as well as their call for urgent support, such as more skills training—especially in the effective use of health data and technology—preserving the patient-doctor relationship in a changing digital world and recruiting more healthcare professionals into the field. The multiphase research report not only understands where the healthcare system is following the Covid-19 pandemic, but where it needs to be in 10 years to ensure a future that both providers and patients deserve.
The “Clinician of the Future” report includes a quantitative global survey, qualitative interviews and roundtable discussions with nearly 3,000 practicing doctors and nurses around the world. The data helps shed light on the challenges impacting the profession today and predictions on what healthcare will look like in the next 10 years, according to those providing critical patient care
According to the report, 56% of respondents said that there has been growing empowerment amongst patients within the last 10 years, as people take charge of their health journeys. When referring to soft skills, 82% said that it’s important for them to exhibit active listening and empathy to the people they serve. Furthermore, nearly half of clinicians cite the allocated time they have with patients as an issue, as only 51% believe that the allotted time allows them to provide satisfactory care.
To ensure a positive shift moving into the future and to fill current gaps, clinicians highlight the following priority areas for greater support:
Clinicians predict that over the next 10 years “technology literacy” will become their most valuable capability, ranking higher than “clinical knowledge.” In fact, 56% of clinicians predict they will base most of their clinical decisions using tools that utilize artificial intelligence. However, 69% report being overwhelmed with the current volume of data and 69% predict the widespread use of digital health technologies to become an even more challenging burden in the future. As a result, 83% believe training needs to be overhauled so they can keep pace with technological advancements.
Clinicians predict a blended approach to healthcare with 63% saying most consultations between clinicians and patients will be remote and 49% saying most healthcare will be provided in a patient’s home instead of in a healthcare setting. While clinicians may save time and see more patients, thanks to telehealth, more than half of clinicians believe telehealth will negatively impact their ability to demonstrate empathy with patients they no longer see in person. As a result, clinicians are calling for guidance on when to use telehealth and how to transfer soft skills like empathy to the computer screen.
Clinicians are concerned about a global healthcare workforce shortage, with 74% predicting there will be a shortage of nurses and 68% predicting a shortage of doctors in 10 years’ time. This may be why global clinicians say a top support priority is increasing the number of healthcare workers in the coming decade. Clinicians require the support of larger, better-equipped teams and expanded multidisciplinary healthcare teams, such as data analysts, data security experts and scientists, as well as clinicians themselves.
“While we know that many nurses are leaving the profession due to burnout, we also know that the pandemic has inspired others to enter the field because of a strong desire for purposeful work,” said Marion Broome, Ruby F. Wilson professor of nursing at Duke University’s School of Nursing. “We must embrace this next wave of healthcare professionals and ensure we set them up for success. Our future as a society depends on it.”
10. Newspaper Delivery Penetration of Population 1950—120%
WSJ When Boys, Not Phones, Delivered the News
Many homes took two papers, a morning and an evening one.
By Bob Greene
I’m no stamp collector, but there is a 3-cent first class stamp, issued in 1952, that I keep in a frame on a bookshelf. The Post Office Department authorized the stamp to honor what the nation considered an essential job.
The rectangular stamp, light purple in color, depicts houses in a typical small town. Against that backdrop is an illustration of a boy with a canvas bag slung over one shoulder. The stamp’s inscription reads: “In recognition of the important service rendered their communities and their nation by America’s newspaperboys.”
I look at that stamp every time there is another news story about the declining circulation of print papers, even as digital circulation grows. Newspaperboys (and girls) were a vital part of the American landscape in the decades before the internet and cable news delivered up-to-the-second bulletins onto people’s screens. Today, print papers mostly are delivered by adults in cars. But that purple stamp celebrated the era when the speediest way of getting news to front doors was a boy on a bike.
How ingrained in the nation’s life was that boy? One proud former newspaperboy—Dwight D. Eisenhower—issued a statement from the White House in 1954 honoring the carriers “not only because they serve our daily family needs, but because they symbolize so many cherished American ideals.”
When Eisenhower mentioned “daily family needs,” he wasn’t being hyperbolic. In 1950 the penetration of American households by newspapers—a statistic measuring in how many homes a newspaper was read each day—was just above 120%. How could the number exceed 100%? Many homes subscribed to two papers—a morning and an evening one.
PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES
Part of newspaperboys’ regular duties was to collect by hand, each week or each month, the subscription fees from every home on their route. During World War II, they raised money for the nation’s defense by selling War Bonds and War Stamps as they made their rounds. In appreciation, the U.S. Treasury commissioned a poster featuring a G.I. in combat gear shaking the hand of a newspaperboy. “Thanks Buddy!” the poster proclaimed. “Newspaper Boys have sold over 1¼ billion war savings stamps since Pearl Harbor.”
Some states bestowed annual awards on delivery boys or girls for exemplary work. In Ohio the award was considered so prestigious that it was presented by either the governor or the chief justice of the state supreme court. In 1954 the Bowling Green Sentinel-Tribune explained to its readers that “the newspaperboy completes the job started by the reporter in far-off Asia . . . the photographer in Africa . . . the correspondent in Alaska. . . . But the job is a long way from being finished until the newspaper is in your home.”
For some of us who love this business, there is still no sweeter sound than the solid thump of a rolled-up paper hitting the front stoop. The future may be digital, but to that hardworking newspaperboy on the 3-cent stamp, with gratitude and respect across all the years: Here’s to you.
@Charlie Bilello A look at federal government spending tells the story, with a 185% increase over the last 20 years, far greater than the overall rate of inflation (64%).
8. Lumber $360 Would Be New Lows….$1700 in May 2021
Pills that can help a person reverse the effects of aging could be on the market in the next five years, according to an expert.
Sam Altman, 37, was revealed to have funded biotech startup Retro BioScience to the tune of $180million last month. He is the latest in a long line of Silicon Valley billionaires to throw their considerable wealth behind the science of aging.
Amazon’s Jeff Bezos is reported to have invested $3billion in life-extension startup Altos Labs. PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel invested in the MethuselahFoundation, which has the goal of making ’90 the new 50′.
Steele said: ‘With these billionaires, I’m sure some of them are doing it purely for personal gain — they’ve got all this money and they can’t possibly spend it in a single human lifetime.
‘But… if you’re a savvy investor, you can see that anti-aging medication is a huge business opportunity because the potential market is every living human.
‘I think it’s going to be the biggest revolution in medicine since the discovery of antibiotics — and as a savvy business person, you want to be on the leading edge of that revolution.’
While aging does not directly kill people, older people are at risk of many deadly diseases such as Alzheimer’s, heart disease and cancer.
Around 100,000 people die from age-related diseases every day, according to the World Health Organization.
Mr Steele says: ‘Aging is the greatest humanitarian challenge of all time.
There are ’20 to 30’ companies developing new drugs known as ‘senolytics’ which kill aging cells in the body, he explained.
In mice, these drugs cause elderly animals to become lively and healthy suddenly.
‘Many of these drugs are drugs that we already understand and use for different purposes, so we don’t have to develop new medications,’ Mr Steele said.
An example of a senolytic treatment is the combination of datasinib, used for chemotherapy, and quercetin, a molecule found in fruits and vegetables.
Used together, they remove aged ‘senescent’ cells responsible for many of the problems associated with aging.
Another potential general anti-aging drug is metformin. First approved in 1994 for type 2 diabetes, the drug has shown promise extending lifespans by improving blood vessel health.
‘Some of those companies are trying to develop new and more effective drugs that could do the same thing better,’ the author said.
‘That’s the sort of thing that’s very, very close to clinical realization. And I’d be shocked if in five years we don’t have some senolytics in the clinic.
‘It probably won’t be for aging at first. It’ll be for a specific disease – and maybe in 10 years, we’ll use it for aging.
‘These things are very, very near term.’
Jeff Bezos’s investment in Altos Labs — the biggest biotechnology company launch of all time — is a longer shot, Steele believes.
The firm specializes finding and developing cell therapies that can halt and eventually reverse the process of aging.
Mr Steele says: ‘This relies on a process called cellular reprogramming. It’s been shown to work on cells in a dish, and there’s some evidence it works in mice – but it’s an incredibly complicated piece of science.
‘It’s like science that seems to have fallen through a wormhole from the future – and even if it does work, do we have the biological applied understanding in the 2020s to turn that into a workable treatment?’
When Altos Labs was announced, Elon Musk quipped on Twitter about the Amazon mogul: ‘If it doesn’t work, he’s gonna sue death!’
With labs launching in America and Cambridge, the company is reputed to pay scientists poached from the world’s top universities salaries of up to a million dollars a year.
Steele says that, realistically, treatments we are likely to see in the near term will extend ‘healthspan’ by dealing with age-related diseases — delaying the onset of problems such as dementia.
Dr Cathy Slack, a biologist from the University of Aston, in the UK, agrees, telling DailyMail.com: ‘The goal is to increase the number of years of healthy lifespan rather than extending the late-life period of poor health.’
She said there are now ‘many’ published studies that show that genetic or environmental changes can extend a healthy lifespan.
She says: ‘Many of the biological systems that have been shown to play a role in healthy aging in these animal models are also present in humans and perform similar functions – so there is every reason to believe that these same processes are impacting on human aging.
‘The ultimate goal is really to try and manipulate these systems during human aging to maintain health and quality of life.’
Dr Slack believes that successful treatments are likely to be a combination of drugs and lifestyle changes – and look holistically at all the diseases that afflict people in later life.
She says: ‘Historically, we have viewed the various diseases associated with older age as distinct entities – so research tends to focus on each one rather than looking at them more holistically together as a direct consequence of biological aging.
‘We already know that there are lifestyle changes that will help to maintain multiple aspects of heath during aging.
‘Exercise, for example. But supplementation with drugs that target multiple physiological parameters of aging could have a huge impact on quality of life for older adults.’
10. The Daily Stoic Are You Showing Them How To Be A Student?
“Live as if you were to die tomorrow. Learn as if you were to live forever.”
—Mahatma Gandhi
If you think back to when you were a kid, what appeared to you to be the best part about being an adult? No more school. Our parents didn’t have to carry around heavy books or do homework. We never saw them applying to get into this school or that one. It’s sort of sad that, by and large, we show our kids that education stops. That while adulthood is isn’t always fun, one perk is that you no longer have to go to class. That graduation is a final destination.
It doesn’t have to be this way. There’s the story of Epictetus teaching one day when a student’s arrival caused a commotion in the back of the room. Who was it? Hadrian, the emperor. Hadrian’s example clearly had an impact on his successor and adopted grandson, Marcus Aurelius. Late in his reign, a friend spotted Marcus heading out, carrying a stack of books. “Where are you going?” he asked. Marcus was on his way to a lecture on Stoicism, he said, for “learning is a good thing, even for one who is growing old. I am now on my way to Sextus the philosopher to learn what I do not yet know.
If you want your kids to value learning, if you want them to never stop furthering the education you’ve been investing so much time and money and care and worry into, then we have to show them what an adult committed to lifelong learning actually looks like. We have to show them we have not graduated, we are not on summer break, we have not arrived at the final destination of education.
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