Topley’s Top 10 – May 12, 2022

1. Not Sure if These 2 Were the Top Last Week at Crypto Gathering

Royal Flush: Inside Crypto’s Most Exclusive Gathering (forbes.com)

Coinbase Joins the Wipeout Disruptor Stock List -86% from Highs

www.stockcharts.com


2. Disruptor Stocks Blow Up List

@Charlie Bilello


3. Over 40% of S&P 500 Stocks Below Pre-COVID Highs

The world changed dramatically with the onslaught of the COVID pandemic in early 2020. Businesses were forced to digitize, consumers saved at historic rates, the Federal Government and Federal Reserve flooded the economy with cash, new hobbies were picked up faster than a dropped hundred dollar bill, and consumers emerged from the lockdowns financially stronger than ever. Long story short, COVID appeared to permanently alter the ways in which consumers and businesses interact, and companies that stood to benefit from the new way of life saw their stocks surge while the old-economy stalwarts were crushed. That was then.

This is now. As the economy has emerged from COVID, the cost of inputs has skyrocketed, real buying power has diminished, supply chains have become strained, and geopolitical tensions are hot.  Not only that, but whereas the rate of fiscal and monetary stimulus was stronger than ever during the pandemic, the headwind from their removal is as intense as it gets.

Given the shifts, a number of stocks that originally surged in the COVID world have been hit hard in the post-Covid environment, and some of the biggest COVID losers during the lockdowns have turned into market leaders.  As things currently stand, 40.6% of S&P 500 members are below their pre-COVID highs (closing high price from the start of 2019 through the end of February 2020), even as the index is up 18.0% from its pre-COVID closing high on 2/19/20. Besides the fact that four out of every ten S&P 500 stocks are below their pre-COVID highs, 8.1% of the index members are within 5% of their pre-COVID high and another 7.1% are within 10% of their pre-COVID highs.

At the sector level, three sectors – Communication Services, Real Estate, and Utilities- have more than half of their components trading below their pre-COVID highs.  In addition to those three sectors, in both the Consumer Discretionary and Financials sectors, more than 40% of components are below their pre-COVID highs, and another 10% of each sector’s components are within 10% of those former highs. At the other end of the spectrum, the original ‘losers’ from COVID like Energy and Materials have fewer than a quarter of their components trading below their pre-COVID highs. While it seems some days like COVID will never go away, the rallies that a large number of stocks experienced are now nothing more than memories.   Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/over-40-of-sp-500-stocks-below-pre-covid-highs


4. History of Heavy Over 93% Down Volume.

@jasongoepfert  About the only positive here is that selling has been so bad it might be exhaustive. Over the past 60 years, there have been 12 times (besides today) when 2 out of 3 sessions saw 93% or more of volume focused on falling stocks. 11 of them witnessed a rebound.

https://twitter.com/jasongoepfert


5. Median Small Cap Drawdown on Par with Tech Bubble.

@jonrice80 Fully realize there are many ways to measure sentiment, but we are getting into rare territory for median small cap drawdowns. Median US small cap now down 41% from 52 week high. Now on par with tech bubble, creeping on COVID, still a ways from 08/09

https://twitter.com/jonrice80/status/1523787659289653248/photo/1


6. Biotech -40% YTD

www.stockcharts.com


7. A Good Reminder from Ben Carlson Blog

Some Things I’m Not Going to Regret in 20 Years by Ben Carlson  https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/05/some-things-im-not-going-to-regret-in-20-years/


8. Weed is not Recession/Inflation Proof? MJ Weed ETF Breaks Thru Covid Lows.


9. Facts on Nurses…

USA Facts Blog

https://usafacts.org/articles/who-are-the-nations-nurses/


10. Mark Cuban Says These are the Dumbest Things Entrepreneurs Do

Whatever you do, don’t do the first thing on this list. Or the second. Definitely not the third.

By Jason Fell July 23, 2019

By nature, entrepreneurs are intelligent, passionate, ambitious people. But all of those smarts and drive don’t always mean every business owner makes all the right decisions all of the time. Hopefully the blunders that are made aren’t big enough that the business fails.

We reached out to tech billionaire Mark Cuban to find out the things that entrepreneurs do that absolutely drive him bonkers. As a longtime investor on ABC’s hit TV show Shark Tank, Cuban has encountered his fair share of entrepreneurs who’ve made some serious missteps.

Whether you’re looking for investment money or quietly growing your business, Cuban says to avoid making the following mistakes at all costs.

For businesses in Ohio, there’s a team working behind the scenes to help you find success.

Not understanding business basics.

One thing that drives Cuban crazy is when entrepreneurs lack the basics. A prime example, he says, is when entrepreneurs “don’t know the difference between a product and a feature.” Before an entrepreneur begins looking for investment money, starts producing a product, even before research and development, they need to have this fundamental understanding.

In other words, if a competitor sells only blue shirts, and your shirts are blue and red, you’ve merely created a feature. Products or services solve problems and people want to purchase them. Features are characteristics that add value to products.

Related: Mark Cuban Shares the Best Advice He Ever Got

Successful companies are founded on products—not features, Cuban says.

Thinking competition equals validation.

Creating something from nothing is no easy feat. Convincing people that you’re providing a valuable service and to buy your products sometimes requires a lot more. Cuban says it’s a big mistake to think that a big competitor moving into your market validates your business.

What it does—or should do—is make smart entrepreneurs extremely uneasy. “It means you are in deep trouble unless you can out-innovate and outsell them,” Cuban says.

Pegging your success on one ‘star’ employee.

As the old saying goes: Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. The same goes for hiring and team building.

Too often, business owners believe that “their next hire will solve their biggest problem,” Cuban says. Hiring the best marketer in the industry doesn’t mean you’ll magically figure out how to sell your stuff and everyone will live happily ever after, he says.

If your star employee leaves or fails, then so does everyone else. Growing a successful business requires all hands on deck, meaning everyone on the team needs to be pulling their weight—together.

https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/337115

Topley’s Top 10 – May 11, 2022

1. 82% of Bonds in AGG Bond Index Trade Below Par

https://Iplresearch.com/2022/05/10/core-bonds-are-trading-at-deep-discounts-to-par/


2. Global Bonds 9 Straight Months of Losses

Vanguard International Bond ETF

www.stockcharts.com


3. Value Worst Year Ever Vs. Growth 2020….Now?

Irrelevant Investor-The outperformance of growth over value has been historic. For 14 out of 15 quarters from 2017 through 2020, value underperformed growth  That mentality reached a fever pitch in 2020 when growth stocks gained  37% while value stocks gained nothing. That was the worst year ever for value relative to growth, including 1999.


4. Gasoline & Diesel Prices Spike to New WTF Records

by Wolf Richter  –Predictions a few weeks ago of peak gasoline prices have been obviated by the inflationary mindset.  The average price of all grades of gasoline at the pump spiked to a record $4.33 per gallon on Monday, May 9, the third week in a row of increases, and was up 46% from a year ago, edging past the prior record of Monday, March 14 ($4.32), according to the US Energy Department’s EIA late Monday, based on its surveys of gas stations conducted during the day.

Gasoline price increases slap consumers directly in the face every time they get gas, and the classic ways of hiding price increases – such as making gallons smaller (shrinkflation) – would be illegal.

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/05/09/gasoline-diesel-prices-spike-to-new-wtf-records-but-dont-blame-crude-oil/


5. Small Cap -28% from highs…Closing right at 200day moving average on long-term chart

www.stockcharts.com


6. Bitcoin Washout Is Leaving Mom-and-Pop Buyers Holding the Bag…Short-Term Holders Average Price $47,500 and They are Selling.

Bloomberg

Vildana Hajric

(Bloomberg) — There’s a crypto refrain when prices crash precipitously like this: The selloff is washing out the short term-focused non-believers, known as weak hands, strengthening the industry in its wake.

It’s a glib way to think of all those who had joined the market as Bitcoin’s price rose to an all-time high at the end of last year — including institutions and small-time at-home investors, many of whom are deeply underwater on their investments now.

A measure called MVRV — which divides market value by the average purchase price — shows that short-term holders, on average, purchased Bitcoin at around $47,500. Another gauge, called the spent-output-profit ratio (SOPR), indicates those kind of investors are selling at a loss right now, according to an analysis by Genesis Global that uses Glassnode data.

And it’s not just those who have held the coin for a few months. More than half of traders who held crypto at the end of 2021 had gotten in that year, crypto-firm Grayscale Investments said at the time. Bitcoin’s average price in 2021 hovered around $47,300. It was near $32,000 on Monday in New York trading.

“Absolutely a ton of people are down,” said Stephane Ouellette, chief executive of FRNT Financial Inc. “Anyone who bought BTC for the first time in 2021 is down.”

Crypto fans have long argued that digital assets would hold up well during turbulent times. Many had said Bitcoin would prove to be a good inflation hedge thanks to its limited supply. It was also supposed to hold up better amid economic and geopolitical crises because it’s not tied to any government and has no centralized authority.

Instead, digital-asset investors are suffering through an environment that’s put a lot of risky assets through the wringer this year. The Federal Reserve and other central banks are raising interest rates to combat inflation just as the economic backdrop is softening. In this environment, Bitcoin, the largest digital asset by market value, has been cut in half since its November record. It’s seen five straight weeks of declines and just one positive day out of the last 11 sessions, including Monday’s.

To be sure, short-term investors aren’t all necessarily retail — a lot of institutional players also started to dabble in crypto in recent years. Still, the crypto craze had caught the eye of a lot of at-home traders who had been stuck at home during the pandemic and who deployed money into a market that went up in 2020 and 2021.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-washout-leaving-mom-pop-220000088.html


7. Chewy Another Covid Favorite Goes Full Roundtrip Back to 2020 Lows

www.stockcharts.com


8. Another Look at Personal Savings in U.S……Consumers Better Prepared for Downturn.

Capital Group

https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights.html


9. Firearm homicides hit highest level since 1994-Axios

Axios on facebook

Axios on twitter

Axios on linkedin

Axios on email

The firearm homicide rate in the U.S. reached its highest level since 1994 during the first year of the COVID pandemic, with significant racial and class disparities, according to a CDC report published Tuesday.

Driving the news: 2020 saw a historic rise in homicides in the U.S., and the upward trend continued into 2021.

  • About 79% of homicides and 53% of suicides in the U.S. involved firearms in 2020, according to the CDC report.

The big picture: The nation’s firearm homicide rate increased 34.6% from 2019 to 2020, with the largest increases occurring among Black men aged 10-44 years old and Native American or Alaska Native men aged 25-44 years old, per the new report.

  • “The firearm homicide rate among Black males aged 10–24 years was 20.6 times as high as the rate among white males of the same age in 2019, and this ratio increased to 21.6 in 2020,” the report says.
  • Larger increases were also observed at higher poverty levels, with racial and ethnic minorities more likely to live in communities with high surrounding poverty.
  • Counties with the highest poverty levels in 2020 experienced firearm homicide and suicide rates that were 4.5 and 1.3 times as high, respectively, as counties with the lowest poverty levels.
  • While overall firearm suicide rates remained “relatively unchanged” from 2019 to 2020, increasing only slightly, the highest increases were observed among Native Americans or Alaska Natives “at the two highest poverty levels,” the report noted.

What they’re saying: The CDC noted that firearm homicides and suicides are a “persistent and significant” public health concern in the U.S.

  • During the pandemic, “longstanding systemic inequities and structural racism have resulted in limited economic, housing, and educational opportunities associated with inequities in risk for violence and other health conditions among various racial and ethnic groups,” the report stated.

The bottom line: The study’s findings “underscore the importance of comprehensive strategies that can stop violence” by addressing underlying factors that contribute to homicide and suicide rates, including economic and social inequalities that drive racial disparities in health outcomes, per the report.

  • These could include policies that improve economic and household stability — such as child care subsidies and housing assistance — and community outreach programs.

https://www.axios.com/2022/05/10/firearm-homicide-high-1994


10. 5 Lessons On Being Wrong

James Clear Being wrong isn’t as bad as we make it out to be. I have made many mistakes and I have discovered five major lessons from my experiences.

1. Choices that seem poor in hindsight are an indication of growth, not self-worth or intelligence. When you look back on your choices from a year ago, you should always hope to find a few decisions that seem stupid now because that means you are growing. If you only live in the safety zone where you know you can’t mess up, then you’ll never unleash your true potential. If you know enough about something to make the optimal decision on the first try, then you’re not challenging yourself.

2. Given that your first choice is likely to be wrong, the best thing you can do is get started. The faster you learn from being wrong, the sooner you can discover what is right. For complex situations like relationships or entrepreneurship, you literally have to start before you feel ready because it’s not possible for anyone to be truly ready. The best way to learn is to start practicing.

3. Break down topics that are too big to master into smaller tasks that can be mastered. I can’t look at any business and tell you what to do. Entrepreneurship is too big of a topic. But, I can look at any website and tell you how to optimize it for building an email list because that topic is small enough for me to develop some level of expertise. If you want to get better at making accurate first choices, then play in a smaller arena. As Niels Bohr, the Nobel Prize-winning physicist, famously said, “An expert is a person who has made all the mistakes that can be made in a very narrow field.”

4. The time to trust your gut is when you have the knowledge or experience to back it up. You can trust yourself to make sharp decisions in areas where you already have proven expertise. For everything else, the only way to discover what works is to adopt a philosophy of experimentation.

5. The fact that failure will happen is not an excuse for expecting to fail. There is no reason to be depressed or give up simply because you will make a few wrong choices. Even more crucial, you must try your best every time because it is the effort and the practice that drives the learning process. They are essential, even if you fail. Realize that no single choice is destined to fail, but that occasional failure is the cost you have to pay if you want to be right. Expect to win and play like it from the outset.

Your first choice is rarely the optimal choice. Make it now, stop judging yourself, and start growing.

https://jamesclear.com/first-choice

Topley’s Top 10 – May 10, 2022

1. S&P Intraday 1% Moves Hitting Record Levels.

The S&P 500 Index SPX has had a rocky start to 2022, with weakness accentuated by a 3.56% decline Thursday that leaves the core market representative at about a 13% year-to-date drawdown. This weakness has come with a substantial increase in the daily volatility, as we examine through our SPX Volatility Study. This study looks at the number of days where the S&P 500 sees an intraday move exceeding 1% in value. There have been 45 days so far this year where such a move has occurred, with 32 such days coming in the first quarter and another 13 occurring in April and May. The number of 1% down days has exceeded the count of 1% up days at 26 to 19. The last time we saw the full calendar year count of extreme daily losses be higher than extreme daily gains was in 2008. While we are only a little over four months into the year, the core index has seen an extreme daily move in 52% of the trading days (through 5/5), which is the second-highest annual percentage of extreme days since 1987. The only year to show more extreme days was 2008 at 53%, with a high percentage of 50% seen in 2002. There is still plenty of time for this reading to come down, but the current pace shows the historic levels of daily volatility the core market has experienced over the past few months.

www.dorseywright.com


2. S&P Falls for 5 Consecutive Weeks for the First Time Since 2011

Jim Reid Deutsche Bank- A big theme of ours over the last year is that this is likely to be a very different cycle, (and probably decade) to the last one as many supercycle structural forces reverse. If correct, then many themes will be different going forward to what we’ve been accustomed to. One such theme is the relentless march of US equities. The last decade was noticeable for record long periods without a correction, a don’t fight the Fed mentality and a buy the dip narrative.

Today’s CoTD shows that the S&P 500 has now fallen for five successive weeks for the first time since June 2011. Indeed as the graph shows, this now ends the longest run without such an event since weekly data begins in 1928. In the 83 years between 1928 and 2011 we had 61 runs of five or more weekly declines in a row, so one every year and a third on average even if a number were concentrated together.

So the last decade has very much been the exception rather than the norm.


3. That was Fast…..Software Stock Valuations Correct to Historical Average.

Chart 1 – Overall Software EV/NTM Revenue Multiples, 2015-2022

Software multiples are down 12% this wk. and trade at 7.2x NTM rev. vs. the historical avg. at 8x. Despite the recent downdraft, we believe there is still downside to multiples as fundamentals could weaken into a recessionary environment and past downdrafts have pushed avg. multiples to ~5x. We highlight 5 key risks: 1) Higher Multiple Names; 2) Exposure to Interest Rates; 3) Exposure to Europe; 4) Products with High ASP; and 5) Deferred Software.

Dan Stratemeier-Managing -DirectorEquities, Event Driven Strategies-Jefferies LLC


4. Real Interest Rates vs. Tech….Perfect Inverse Relationship

Dave Lutz Jones Trading–“Real Rates” keep ripping higher and squashing Tech.  Any tech bid without a reversal in USGGT10Y is likely to be met with sellers.


5. QQQ -25%+ High to Low…..Gives Back All of 2021 Gains.

www.stockcharts.com


6. VIX-Volatility Index has not Broken Out to Upside Yet.

2020 Spike Hit 75

www.stockcharts.com


7. Visual of LNG Export Growth


8. The Oil Market Never Changes…Prices Go Up….Start Drilling…..Permits Hit Record Levels.

The Daily Shot Blog Energy: The number of newly approved drilling permits has increased to record high levels, which typically leads production by six-to-twelve months.

Source: Longview Economics

https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-may-6th-2022/


9. 2021 Breakdown by Age of Homebuyers.

Will The Housing Market Crash? Experts Give 5-Year Predictions.–Natalie Campisi https://www.forbes.com/advisor/mortgages/will-housing-market-crash/


10. This Is the Sign of a Great Thinker, According to Jeff Bezos and Adam Grant

Great thinkers don’t just harbor doubt. They embrace uncertainty–and how little they really know.

BY JEFF HADEN, CONTRIBUTING EDITOR, INC.@JEFF_HADEN

The smartest person I’ve known didn’t, on the surface, appear to be that smart.

She used qualifiers like “I think.” “Seems.” “Suggests.” “Indicates.”

When asked for her opinion she could appear unsure, frequently asking for feedback and shifting the conversation to what other people thought.

To make perception matters worse, she was quick to change her positions. New facts? New decisions. New situations? New strategies. New agendas? New tactics. She changed her mind — a lot.

In time, I realized those behaviors masked a staggering intellect. She wasn’t just “book smart” — although she definitely was — but smart smart. Insightful. Perceptive. Clever. Smart about things. Smart about people.

In time, I realized those behaviors were the sign of a staggering intellect.

The rarely mentioned flip side of the Dunning-Kruger effect, a type of cognitive bias described by social psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger in which people believe they’re smarter and more skilled than they actually are, is that people with high ability tend to underestimate how good they are.

High-ability individuals tend to underrate their relative competence, and at the same time assume that tasks that are easy for them are just as easy for other people. The smarter you are, the less you think you know — because you realize just how much there is to actually know.

That didn’t mean she suffered from imposter syndrome, the inner belief that she was inadequate and mediocre despite evidence that showed she was highly skilled and extremely successful.

As Adam Grant writes in Think Again:

Great thinkers don’t harbor doubts because they’re impostors. They maintain doubts because they know we’re all partially blind and they’re committed to improving their sight. They don’t boast about how much they know; the marvel at how little they understand. They’re aware that each answer raises new questions, and the quest for knowledge is never finished. The mark of lifelong learners is recognizing that they can learn something from everyone they meet.

That didn’t mean she was indecisive or unsure, even though she often changed her mind. 

According to Jeff Bezos:

The smartest people are constantly revising their understanding, reconsidering a problem they thought they’d already solved. They’re open to new points of view, new information, new ideas, contradictions, and challenges to their own way of thinking.

To Bezos, consistency of thought isn’t a positive trait. Bezos encourages those around him to seek new data, new analyses, new perspectives — to have what Stanford professor Bob Sutton calls “strong opinions, which are weakly held.”

Why?

Because wisdom isn’t found in certainty. Wisdom is knowing that while you might know a lot, there’s also a lot you don’t know.

Wisdom is trying to find out what is right rather than trying to be right.

Wisdom is realizing when you’re wrong, and backing down graciously.

Great thinkers aren’t afraid to be wrong. Great thinkers aren’t afraid to admit they don’t have all the answers. Great thinkers aren’t afraid to say “I think” instead of “I know.”

As Grant writes, “Arrogance leaves us blind to our weaknesses. Humility is a reflective lens: it helps us see them clearly. Confident humility is a corrective lens: it enables us to overcome those weaknesses.”

Humility enables us to embrace the fact that we already know what we know.

What we don’t know is what other people know.

At least not yet

https://www.inc.com/jeff-haden/this-is-sign-of-a-great-thinker-according-to-jeff-bezos-adam-grant.html?cid=sf01003

Topley’s Top 10 – May 09, 2022

1. 10 Year Treasury Yield Approaching Decade Highs

MacroTrends-10 Year Chart of 10 Year Treasury Yield

https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart


2. IPO ETF Heading for Covid Lows

IPO -60%…back to mid-2020 levels

www.stockcharts.com


3. Small Cap Value -7.6%. YTD vs. Small Cap Growth -23%

www.yahoofinance.com


4. Another Theme ETF Breaking Down….Robotics ETF -30%….Breaks Up Trend Line Going Back to 2015

See break of blue uptrend line going back 7 years

www.stockcharts.com


5. One-Year Returns…Bitcoin -41% vs. U.S. Dollar +14% vs. GOLD +2%

www.yahoofinance.com


6. Ray Dalio Bubble Gauge Down Substantially from Highs

Ray Dalio-The latest readings from the “bubble indicator.”

As you know, I like to convert my intuitive thinking into indicators which I write down as decision rules (principles) that can be back-tested and automated to put together with other principles and bets created the same way to make up a portfolio of alpha bets. I have one of these for bubbles. Having been through many bubbles over my 50+ years of investing, about 10 years ago I described what in my mind makes a bubble and use that to identify them in markets—all markets, not just stocks.

I define a bubble market as one that has a combination of the following in high degrees:

  1. High prices relative to traditional measures of value (e.g., by taking the present value of their cash flows for the duration of the asset and comparing it with their interest rates).
  2. Unsustainable conditions (e.g., extrapolating past revenue and earnings growth rates late in the cycle when capacity limits mean that that growth can’t be sustained).
  3. Many new and naïve buyers who were attracted in because the market has gone up a lot so it’s perceived as a hot market.
  4. Broad bullish sentiment.
  5. A high percentage of purchases being financed by debt.
  6. A lot of forward and speculative purchases made to bet on price gains (e.g., inventories that are more than needed, contracted forward purchases, etc.).

The chart below shows the bubble gauge for the average of the most bubbly companies as defined in 2020. Readings for those companies are meaningfully down.

The charts below show the performance of a basket of emerging tech bubble stocks (what we call the “bubble slice”) versus the S&P 500. Prices have meaningfully declined and have given up most of their post-COVID gains.

The Popping of the Bubble Stocks: An Update

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/popping-bubble-stocks-update-ray-dalio/


7. Just 35% of S&P 500 Stocks and 20% of Nasdaq Trading Above 200day Moving Average

WSJ

Best Read of Weekend…..WSJ-Once-popular trades fall out of favor as investors brace for further volatility

https://www.wsj.com/articles/markets-2022-slide-has-already-changed-investor-behavior-11652002203?mod=hp_lead_pos2


8. It’s Not 1999….See P/E Multiple Comparison

Seth Golden https://twitter.com/SethCL


9. No Recession at Kentucky Derby….Record Wagering.

Zerohedge-Wagering from all-sources on the Kentucky Derby Day program totaled $273.8 million, a 17% increase over 2021 and up 9% from the previous record in 2019 of $250.9 million. Wagering from all-sources on the Kentucky Derby race totaled $179.0 million, up 15% over 2021 and up 8% from the previous record of $165.5 million set in 2019. This year’s wagering record includes $8.3 million of handle wagered in Japan. -CDI

 

Here are the Kentucky Derby payouts:

21 – Rich Strike WIN: $163.60 PLACE: $74.20 SHOW: $29.40

3 – Epicenter PLACE: $7.40 SHOW: $5.20

10 – Zandon SHOW: $5.60

$2.00 Exacta 21-3 $4,101.20

$1.00 Trifecta 21-3-10 $14,870.70

$1.00 Superfecta 21-3-10-13 $321,500.10

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/kentucky-derby-day-wagering-hits-record-high-underdog-rich-strike-wins


10. The Top 5 Strengths People Wish They Had…

Psychology Today

Ryan M. Niemiec Psy.D.

Here are the top five strengths, starting with the fifth highest. Participants chose out of 24 universal strengths found across human beings (they could also choose “none of the above”).

5: Forgiveness

People wish they could be more forgiving. This makes perfect sense. The mental burden of holding onto resentment, anger, and hurt feelings can be overwhelming. Science informs us that forgiveness takes time. It is rarely “one and done.” This means we need to be patient with our forgiveness. We need to make it a practice of letting go, over and over.

·  Science-based strategy from my Character Strengths Interventions book:

o After someone offends you, think about how the offender is a complex human being who needs to experience positive growth and transformation, rather than seeing them as “all bad.”

·  After someone offends you, think about how the offender is a complex human being who needs to experience positive growth and transformation, rather than seeing them as “all bad.”

4: Creativity

People want to be more creative. They want to come up with more ideas. Their minds are often obstacles: “What will people think of what I created?” “What if I fail?” “How much will I lose?” I like that this strength was nominated so high because it reminds us that there is great value for our mental well-being if we can open ourselves to new ways of doing things, think of new solutions to our problems, and take novel action.

·  Science-based strategy from my Character Strengths Interventions book:

o Develop divergent thinking. This means that when you have a problem, come up with multiple alternate solutions instead of searching for one “correct” solution. After you name a problem, brainstorm a list of ideas for potential solutions.

·  Develop divergent thinking. This means that when you have a problem, come up with multiple alternate solutions instead of searching for one “correct” solution. After you name a problem, brainstorm a list of ideas for potential solutions.

3: Perseverance

People wish they did not give up so easily. The truth is – it is challenging to be perseverant. When we are trying to reach a goal, life happens: we feel mental fatigue, we feel physical fatigue, we have negative judgments, people trying to stop us, and daily life getting in the way. But, perseverance can overcome those obstacles. It is that inner voice that says, “keep going….keep swimming…don’t give up.” 

·  Science-based strategy from my Character Strengths Interventions book:

o As you work on a project, pay attention to how you have put forth good focus, effort, and energy with the task/project. Reward yourself when you “try your best,” instead of what most people do, which is to reward yourself when the goal is reached.

·  As you work on a project, pay attention to how you have put forth good focus, effort, and energy with the task/project. Reward yourself when you “try your best,” instead of what most people do, which is to reward yourself when the goal is reached.

2: Bravery

People want to be braver. I hear this and see this – almost constantly, in my work as I interact with people across the globe. It is challenging to be brave enough to move out of one’s comfort zone, challenge the system or the status quo, speak an unpopular opinion, and face your fears. No one said bravery is easy. But we say that it is a pathway to being more authentic and helping your neighbor.

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·  Science-based strategy from my Character Strengths Interventions book:

o As you consider using your bravery strength, focus on the outcome of the courageous act. For example, think of the person you would be helping or remind yourself of the goodness of the action you’d be taking.

·  As you consider using your bravery strength, focus on the outcome of the courageous act. For example, think of the person you would be helping or remind yourself of the goodness of the action you’d be taking.

1: Self-Regulation

The most significant percentage of people said the main character strength they wished they had more of to help with their mental health is self-regulation. People want more self-control. This takes many forms – to have more control of your feelings, impulses, bad habits, and words.

People want more discipline in their life, but vices, old habits, and problem behaviors are ingrained, amorphous, hidden, confusing, and often victorious.

·  Science-based strategy from my Character Strengths Interventions book:

o Start a daily self-monitoring log, using your smart-device or computer. Keep track of how you are feeling mentally each day. Track your food and drink intake, your activities, and the people you interact with. Make note of patterns that show up before you feel a certain way.

·  Start a daily self-monitoring log, using your smart-device or computer. Keep track of how you are feeling mentally each day. Track your food and drink intake, your activities, and the people you interact with. Make note of patterns that show up before you feel a certain way.

These findings come from new research I conducted in preparation for a scientific paper I’ll be publishing later this year. I wanted you to have a sneak peek at a few of the many fascinating findings. Lots more to come!

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/what-matters-most/202205/5-surprising-mental-health-strengths-people-wish

·  Science-based strategy from my Character Strengths Interventions book:

o After someone offends you, think about how the offender is a complex human being who needs to experience positive growth and transformation, rather than seeing them as “all bad.”

·  After someone offends you, think about how the offender is a complex human being who needs to experience positive growth and transformation, rather than seeing them as “all bad.”

4: Creativity

People want to be more creative. They want to come up with more ideas. Their minds are often obstacles: “What will people think of what I created?” “What if I fail?” “How much will I lose?” I like that this strength was nominated so high because it reminds us that there is great value for our mental well-being if we can open ourselves to new ways of doing things, think of new solutions to our problems, and take novel action.

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·  Science-based strategy from my Character Strengths Interventions book:

o Develop divergent thinking. This means that when you have a problem, come up with multiple alternate solutions instead of searching for one “correct” solution. After you name a problem, brainstorm a list of ideas for potential solutions.

·  Develop divergent thinking. This means that when you have a problem, come up with multiple alternate solutions instead of searching for one “correct” solution. After you name a problem, brainstorm a list of ideas for potential solutions.

3: Perseverance

People wish they did not give up so easily. The truth is – it is challenging to be perseverant. When we are trying to reach a goal, life happens: we feel mental fatigue, we feel physical fatigue, we have negative judgments, people trying to stop us, and daily life getting in the way. But, perseverance can overcome those obstacles. It is that inner voice that says, “keep going….keep swimming…don’t give up.” 

·  Science-based strategy from my Character Strengths Interventions book:

o As you work on a project, pay attention to how you have put forth good focus, effort, and energy with the task/project. Reward yourself when you “try your best,” instead of what most people do, which is to reward yourself when the goal is reached.

·  As you work on a project, pay attention to how you have put forth good focus, effort, and energy with the task/project. Reward yourself when you “try your best,” instead of what most people do, which is to reward yourself when the goal is reached.

2: Bravery

People want to be braver. I hear this and see this – almost constantly, in my work as I interact with people across the globe. It is challenging to be brave enough to move out of one’s comfort zone, challenge the system or the status quo, speak an unpopular opinion, and face your fears. No one said bravery is easy. But we say that it is a pathway to being more authentic and helping your neighbor.

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·  Science-based strategy from my Character Strengths Interventions book:

o As you consider using your bravery strength, focus on the outcome of the courageous act. For example, think of the person you would be helping or remind yourself of the goodness of the action you’d be taking.

·  As you consider using your bravery strength, focus on the outcome of the courageous act. For example, think of the person you would be helping or remind yourself of the goodness of the action you’d be taking.

1: Self-Regulation

The most significant percentage of people said the main character strength they wished they had more of to help with their mental health is self-regulation. People want more self-control. This takes many forms – to have more control of your feelings, impulses, bad habits, and words.

People want more discipline in their life, but vices, old habits, and problem behaviors are ingrained, amorphous, hidden, confusing, and often victorious.

·  Science-based strategy from my Character Strengths Interventions book:

o Start a daily self-monitoring log, using your smart-device or computer. Keep track of how you are feeling mentally each day. Track your food and drink intake, your activities, and the people you interact with. Make note of patterns that show up before you feel a certain way.

·  Start a daily self-monitoring log, using your smart-device or computer. Keep track of how you are feeling mentally each day. Track your food and drink intake, your activities, and the people you interact with. Make note of patterns that show up before you feel a certain way.

These findings come from new research I conducted in preparation for a scientific paper I’ll be publishing later this year. I wanted you to have a sneak peek at a few of the many fascinating findings. Lots more to come!

Topley’s Top 10 – May 06, 2022

1. 2022 Worst Starts Ever History

https://lplresearch.com/


2. Bond Market Massively Oversold-Bespoke Investment Group

The sell-off in bond prices over the last six months has been extreme to say the least.  There are a number of ways we could highlight the carnage for bond investors, but one way is to look at how far bond indices are trading below their 200-day moving averages.  As shown below, the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Market Total Return index is currently 8.5% below its 200-day moving average.

Going back to 1988 when daily price data begins, the 200-DMA spread is currently 2x more negative than any prior extreme oversold reading.  Click here to learn more about Bespoke’s premium financial markets research.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/bond-market-massively-oversold


3. 1999 Median Price to Sales Nasdaq 21.9x vs. 11.6x 2022

Invesco

https://www.invesco.com/us/en/insights/topic/featured-insights.html


4. Copper Pulled Back and Closed Below 200day Moving Average but Broader Commodities Index Breaking Out.

JJC-Copper closes below 200day moving average

CRB-Broad Commodities Index about to break out

www.stockcharts.com


5. Gold to Copper Ratio

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright-As some may know, a rising copper-gold ratio typically signals expectations for global economic health are on the rise and vice versa. Over the last year, the copper-gold ratio has consolidated in a range and the ratio is currently at the bottom of this range. The copper-gold ratio and the 10YR Treasury Yield have had a strong correlation over the years. After getting disconnected from their usual relationship, yields have rallied strongly higher since the end of 2021 and are now back at relatively similar levels to the copper-gold ratio. Now that yields have risen back to normalized levels relative to the copper-gold ratio, it’s a bit more difficult to have a strong indication one way or the other of how the assets involved will go from here. This has been one of the worst starts to the year for bonds and there is clear momentum behind rising yields both gold and copper have more mixed technical pictures, but each’s ETF still has acceptable fund scores. 10YR Treasury Yields have also had trouble breaking north of 3% after failing in both 2013 and 2018, so that is another variable to keep in mind. Like 10YR yields, the copper-gold ratio itself has also struggled to breach above its current levels, so these two data points can be seen as possible tailwinds for gold in the future. However, yields would need to see weakening moving forward and, as mentioned earlier, we have seen no signs of this happening yet.

www.dorseywright.com


6. Natural Gas 12month Fund +100% YTD


7. Software Index Charts

Software ETF Barely Holding Previous YTD lows

Software Longer-Term Weekly Chart holding above 200 day moving average

www.stockcharts.com


8. You Though UBER was a Drive Sharing Company or Hedge Fund?

How Uber Lost $5.5 billion on 4 SPAC & IPO Stocks: Grab, Didi, Aurora, Zomato. How it Got There, How They Imploded It’s funny, almost.By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

This morning, Uber reported a net loss of $5.93 billion for Q1, and its shares initially tanked 11%, no biggie compared to the 32% dive that Lyft shares are currently undergoing following its earnings report and outlook last night.

In its earnings report, Uber disclosed $5.5 billion in losses on its stakes in four companies that recently went public via SPAC or IPO, and whose shares have gotten outright thackamuffled. These are the losses Uber reported today on its holdings of these four now infamous stocks that have been beautifying my column, Imploded Stocks:

  • Grab: $1.9 billion loss (biggest SPAC deal ever)
  • Aurora Innovation: $1.7 billion loss
  • Didi: $1.4 billion loss (biggest listing mess ever)
  • Zomato: $462 million loss.

Read full story on how uber ended up a bad hedge fund manager https://wolfstreet.com/2022/05/04/uber-lost-5-5-billion-on-four-spac-ipo-stocks-grab-didi-aurora-zomato-how-it-ended-up-with-them-and-how-they-imploded/

Uber chart breaks thru previous lows to downside

www.stockcharts.com


9. Property Taxes on U.S. Homes Rise $328B

MSN News

Michele Lerner – 6h ago

Unsurprisingly, the spike in home values meant that property tax collections increased in 2021, compared with 2020, according to information compiled and analyzed by Attom, a real estate data analysis firm. Attom’s researchers reviewed property tax data for nearly 87 million homes in the United States and found that $328 billion was levied, up 1.6 percent from the $323 billion in 2020. Despite the price increases on homes in 2021, this was the smallest rise in property tax bills over the past years and down from the 5.4 percent increase between 2019 and 2020.

The discrepancy between the home price increase of 16 percent in 2021 from 2020 and the much smaller increase in property tax bills is likely a reflection of the lag in tax assessments, according to Rick Sharga, executive vice president of market intelligence at Attom. In other words, homeowners may see their property taxes rise higher in 2022.

The average tax bill on single-family homes in the United States increased at the smallest rate in the past five years, up 1.8 percent from $3,719 in 2020 to $3,785 in 2021. The effective tax rate, which refers to the average annual property tax expressed as a percentage of the average estimated market value of homes, was 0.9 percent in 2021, down from 1.1 percent in 2020. Because home values rose much more quickly than tax rates, the effective tax rate declined.

Where property taxes are highest

In New Jersey, the average single-family home tax was $9,476 in 2021, the highest in the nation. Other states among the top five highest include Connecticut ($7,464), Massachusetts ($6,777), New Hampshire ($6,698) and New York ($6,617).

Where property taxes are lowest

The state with the smallest average tax bill was West Virginia at $901 in 2021. Other states among the five with the lowest property tax bills included Alabama ($905), Arkansas ($1,195), Mississippi ($1,243) and Louisiana at $1,248.

Most expensive homes sold in the D.C. area in 2021

D.C.-area property taxes

In counties near Washington, D.C., the average property tax bill was $9,526 in Arlington, Va.; $8,942 in Fairfax County, Va.; $6,837 in Montgomery County, Md.; $6,243 in Washington, D.C. and $4,741 in Prince George’s County, Md.

The effective tax rate in those areas range from a high of 1.01 percent in Prince George’s County to 0.93 percent in Fairfax County, 0.85 percent in Arlington County, 0.79 percent in Montgomery County and 0.55 percent in D.C.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/property-taxes-on-us-homes-rose-to-24328-billion-in-2021-report-finds/ar-AAWWrHz


10. Leaders Must Be Readers-The Daily Stoic

A leader will be forced into countless situations that they have never been in before. Trying, painful, stressful, baffling dilemmas and difficulties unlike any they have known. Nothing could have prepared Kennedy for the Cuban Missile Crisis, but it’s a good thing he had read B. H. Liddell Hart a few years before—it was Hart’s wisdom that helped Kennedy rationally and calmly deal with that unprecedented moment. Nothing could have prepared Churchill for the outbreak of WWII… except of course, the decades he had spent as a historian, which intimately acquainted him with the strategic insights and moral clarity required to bravely fight on.

“One common characteristic of virtually all great leaders I have known is that they have been great readers,” Richard Nixon would write later in life. “Reading not only enlarges and challenges the mind; it engages and exercises the brain. Today’s youth who sits mesmerized by a television screen is not going to be tomorrow’s leader. Television watching is passive. Reading is active.”

Great advice… that a reader of history also knows that Nixon did not quite live up to. In all, Nixon watched over 500 movies while in office in less than 6 years. Might he have been better served by engaging and exercising his brain? Might he have been better off if he’d had more of his assumptions challenged and fewer of his paranoid delusions indulged?

Marcus Aurelius does not become Marcus Aurelius without having read Epictetus at his teacher Rusticus’s urging. Seneca would not have been Seneca without Attalus introducing him to the works of the Stoics, but equally, he would not have been Seneca without his diligent reading of Epicurus, which actively challenged his mind and his assumptions. How did he bravely face death at the hands of Nero’s goons? He was aided by his reading of Cato’s life, just as Cato faced his death by reading Socrates’.

A leader must be a reader. We must learn from the experiences of others. We must be challenged. We must exercise our brains. We must prepare ourselves for the things we’ll only be able to experience once, by learning from the experiences of others.

It’s not just the best way, it’s the only way.

https://dailystoic.com/