Topley’s Top 10 – July 12, 2022

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/earnings-recession-coming-as-fed-hikes-rates/

1. M2 Money Growth Goes Negative

Jim Reid Deutsche Bank-Regular readers will know I’m a staunch believer in inflation being everywhere and (mostly) always a monetary phenomenon. It was no surprise to me then that the rapid increase in M2 balances stemming from the muscular response to the Covid-crisis wound up being persistently inflationary and not transitory, especially when combined with supply constraints. I still believe that inflation will stay structurally elevated in the years ahead for reasons I have detailed many times (deglobalisation, demographics, ESG, etc.); however, there is one warning sign for me at the moment and that’s the rate of change in US M2.

The three-month growth rate in M2 hit only 0.02% at the end of May, that’s the 2nd percentile of M2 growth in data going back to 1959 as you can see in the chart, and on the precipice of turning negative. As you can also see, negative M2 growth rates are extremely rare in the modern era, even during recessions.

Notably, the data is only through May, before the Fed’s QT began in June, which should continue to lead to deposit growth being as weak as it has been recently. When the Fed lets securities mature un-reinvested, the Treasury Department (or MBS issuers) must turn to the public to finance the balances rolling off the Fed’s balance sheet. When the public pays for those balances out of current cash on hand, their deposits are transferred to the Treasury Department (or MBS issuer), effectively removing them from the banking system and monetary aggregates.

Where does that leave me? I still think my core inflation view holds. Not only are we still experiencing an inflationary overhang from the tremendous growth in monetary aggregates (see the peak in the chart), even if monetary aggregate growth stalls, the level of excess savings remains extraordinary, all while labour markets are still historically tight, thus replenishing those bank accounts with pay checks. In fact while the correlation between M2 and inflation isn’t perfect, the correlation works best with around a 30-month lag. Given that M2 YoY growth was 26.9% in February 2021, the overhang might last a while yet.

Nevertheless, the risk that M2 is now on a path lower is one worth keeping an eye on.

2. Earnings Season–Analysts Estimates Still Above Long-Term Trend

Real Investment Advice Blog-Lance Roberts

Over the long term, the economy grows at about 6%. Therefore, earnings growth also runs at roughly ~6% on a peak-to-peak basis. However, analysts suggest that earnings growth into 2023 will run well above the historical growth rate despite forecasts of much slower economic activity.

To put that into perspective, analysts’ estimates are currently at the most significant deviation above that 6% earnings growth trend.

3. Jobs Market Showing No Signs of Recession..2 Job Openings Per Unemployed Person

Sam RO This is in line with BLS data released on Wednesday that showed the layoff rate remained near a record low of 0.9% in May.

So far, we’ve been looking at labor market metrics that reflect the past and the present. But what about the future?
Based on job openings data, it’s pretty clear that the demand for more labor continues to be very strong.
According to BLS data released Wednesday, there was a whopping 11.25 million job openings in May. That compares to the 5.95 million unemployed during the same period.

Sam Ro, CFA https://www.tker.co/p/june-jobs-payrolls-not-recession Found at Abnormal Returns Blog www.abnormalreturns.com

4. U.S. Retail Gas Prices Down 25 Days in a Row-Y Charts

https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_price

5. India Surpasses China in Population

https://www.axios.com/2022/07/11/china-india-world-population-trends

6. Refinance Market Kaput

Wolf Street

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/07/11/cash-out-refis-with-holy-moly-mortgage-rates-to-pay-for-remodeling-projects-professional-home-remodelers-face-challenges/

7. Who Imported Russian Fuels Since War? Who Shut it Down?

The Top Importers of Russian Fossil Fuels-Visual Capitalist

The EU bloc accounted for 61% of Russia’s fossil fuel export revenue during the 100-day period.
Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands—members of both the EU and NATO—were among the largest importers, with only China surpassing them.

China overtook Germany as the largest importer, importing nearly 2 million barrels of discounted Russian oil per day in May—up 55% relative to a year ago. Similarly, Russia surpassed Saudi Arabia as China’s largest oil supplier.
The biggest increase in imports came from India, buying 18% of all Russian oil exports during the 100-day period. A significant amount of the oil that goes to India is re-exported as refined products to the U.S. and Europe, which are trying to become independent of Russian imports.

Reducing Reliance on Russia
In response to the invasion of Ukraine, several countries have taken strict action against Russia through sanctions on exports, including fossil fuels.

The U.S. and Sweden have banned Russian fossil fuel imports entirely, with monthly import volumes down 100% and 99% in May relative to when the invasion began, respectively.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/whos-still-buying-fossil-fuels-from-russia/

8. EV Car Prices +22% Year Over Year …More Models Coming.

2022 is expected to bring an especially dramatic increase in the number of EVs on the U.S. market: from the roughly 62 models available at present to at least 100.
Half of U.S. adults (51%) say they are likely to consider purchasing an electric vehicle in the next decade, up from 39% in January and 43% in March-April.

The Coming Electric Vehicle Wave: In 2022, Consumers Get Options BY LISA MARTINE JENKINS https://morningconsult.com/2021/12/22/electric-vehicles-consumers-2022/

https://cleantechnica.com/2022/03/05/the-worlds-top-selling-electric-vehicles-january-2022/

9. Start-Up Funding Falls the Most It Has Since 2019

The drop was another fallout of rising inflation and widespread economic uncertainty, and a retreat after years of a funding boom.

By Erin Griffith SAN FRANCISCO — For the first time in three years, start-up funding is dropping.

The numbers are stark. Investments in U.S. tech start-ups plunged 23 percent over the last three months, to $62.3 billion, the steepest fall since 2019, according to figures released on Thursday by PitchBook, which tracks young companies. Even worse, in the first six months of the year, start-up sales and initial public offerings — the primary ways these companies return cash to investors — plummeted 88 percent, to $49 billion, from a year ago.

The declines are a rarity in the start-up ecosystem, which enjoyed more than a decade of outsize growth fueled by a booming economy, low interest rates and people using more and more technology, from smartphones to apps to artificial intelligence. That surge produced now-household names such as Airbnb and Instacart. Over the past decade, quarterly funding to high growth start-ups fell just seven times.

But as rising interest rates, inflation and uncertainty stemming from the war in Ukraine have cast a pall over the global economy this year, young tech companies have gotten hit. And that foreshadows a difficult period for the tech industry, which relies on start-ups in Silicon Valley and beyond to provide the next big innovation and growth engine.

“We’ve been in a long bull market,” said Kirsten Green, an investor with Forerunner Ventures, adding that the pullback was partly a reaction to that frenzied period of dealmaking, as well as to macroeconomic uncertainty.

“What we’re doing right now is calming things down and cutting out some of the noise.”

The start-up industry still has plenty of money behind it, and no collapse is imminent. Investors continue to do deals, funding 4,457 transactions in the last three months, up 4 percent from a year ago, according to PitchBook.

Venture capital firms, including Andreessen Horowitz and Sequoia Capital, are also still raising large new funds that can be deployed into young companies, collecting $122 billion in commitments so far this year, PitchBook said.

Venture capitalists, such as those at Sequoia Capital and Lightspeed Venture Partners, have cautioned young firms to cut costs, conserve cash and prepare for hard times. In response, many start-ups have laid off workers and instituted hiring freezes. Some companies — including the payments start-up Fast, the home design company Modsy and the travel start-up WanderJaunt — have shut down.

The pain has also reached young companies that went public in the last two years. Shares of onetime start-up darlings like the stocks app Robinhood, the scooter start-up Bird Global and the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase have tumbled between 86 percent and 95 percent below their highs from the last year. Enjoy Technology, a retail start-up that went public in October, filed for bankruptcy last week. Electric Last Mile Solutions, an electric vehicle start-up that went public in June 2021, said last month that it would liquidate its assets.

Kyle Stanford, an analyst with PitchBook, said the difference this year was that the huge checks and soaring valuations of 2021 were not happening. “Those were unsustainable,” he said.

The start-up market has now reached a kind of stalemate — particularly for the largest and most mature companies — which has led to a lack of action in new funding, said Mark Goldberg, an investor at Index Ventures. Many start-up founders don’t want to raise money these days at a price that values their company lower than it was once worth, while investors don’t want to pay the elevated prices of last year, he said. The result is stasis.
“It’s pretty much frozen,” Mr. Goldberg said.

Additionally, so many start-ups collected huge piles of cash during the recent boom times that few have needed to raise money this year, he said. That could change next year, when some of the companies start running low on cash. “The logjam will break at some point,” he said.

David Spreng, an investor at Runway Growth Capital, a venture debt investment firm, said he had seen a disconnect between investors and start-up executives over the state of the market.

“Pretty much every V.C. is sounding alarm bells,” he said. But, he added, “the management teams we’re talking to, they all seem to think: We’ll be fine, no worries.”

The one thing he has seen every company do, he said, is freeze its hiring. “When we start seeing companies miss their revenue goals, then it’s time to get a little worried,” he said.

Still, the huge piles of capital that venture capital firms have accumulated to back new start-ups has given many in the industry confidence that it will avoid a major collapse.

“When the spigot turns back on, V.C. will be set up to get back to putting a lot of capital back to work,” Mr. Stanford said. “If the broader economic climate doesn’t get worse.”

Start-Up Funding Falls the Most It Has Since 2019 – The New York Times (nytimes.com)

Found at Morning Brew https://www.morningbrew.com/daily

10. 4 Beliefs That Take Time Away from Your Day

By
Cris Antonio
June 24, 2022 10:00 AM EST | 5 min read
What’s the best gift you can give to someone? It’s definitely not diamonds, expensive shoes, or the latest gadget – it’s your time.
Time is the most valuable thing we own because we can never take it back. However, many of us still struggle with our day-to-day tasks.

We seem to not have enough hours in the day for work, family, or friends – but we surely have time to spare when watching YouTube videos, playing with our cat, or endlessly scrolling through our Twitter feed.

Are there things that take time away from you?

Before you blame your demanding boss or the limited hours in the day, you should look within yourself first.

Have you ever thought that perhaps you have beliefs that might be hindering your productivity? Do you let mundane activities take time away from you?

As the old Chinese proverb goes: “be careful of your thoughts for they become your words, and your words become your actions”.

4 Beliefs that take time away from your precious day

Here are the top four beliefs that a lot of people believe these days – and how they take time away from us and the things that truly matter.

1.) “I need to work overtime.”

Unless it’s absolutely necessary, experts advise against it because it’s detrimental to both the employee and the business.

If you’ve been doing plenty of overtime lately, you could already be experiencing some of its negative side effects, such as fatigue, chronic headaches, stomach upset, and signs of depression.

Aside from the health risks, you also reduce your quality of life and become dependent on your overtime pay. Instead of budgeting your paycheck, you see overtime as a convenient way to earn extra cash (when you could be channeling your energy into more creative side hustles

It’s a necessary evil in life – but you don’t have to believe that it’s the only way to be successful or to make more money. Unless required, always aim to leave the workplace after your shift.

Don’t let overtime take time away from vital aspects of your life, such as your relationships. Have coffee with friends or play with your children.

2.) “I can do it tomorrow.”

Tomorrow is a better day. But what if it doesn’t come? What if you become swamped with other tasks?
Procrastination is the bane of productive, successful people everywhere. Like the famous saying ‘there’s a time and a place for everything’, identify which tasks need to be finished today.
If you feel overwhelmed, create a To-Do list for the most important activities (i.e. finish the business presentation, walk the dog, go grocery shopping, etc.). This should help you stay in control during the day.
After all, tomorrow is a different day.

3.) “I can take several breaks.”

Don’t get me wrong: breaks are good. In fact, a 2014 study proved that employees become more efficient in their tasks if they take 17 minutes of break time for every 52 minutes of hard work.

However, unscheduled or unnecessary breaks could lead to slow output and wasted effort. If you know that you’ll be busy (but you still want to get home on time), strategically take breaks to keep your focus and energy up.

For instance: say you have a report due in three hours. Research and make an outline during the first hour, then pause.

Layout the details and make edits on the second hour. Then, take time away for a 5-minute walk. Lastly, finalize the presentation. Remember: your Twitter Feed can wait.

4.) “I’ll check my email first.”

You have probably heard of the ‘Big Rock Theory’. It’s basically a story about tackling the big concerns of your life first (your Big Rocks) so that everything else (your Little Rocks) will fit into place.

Although this idea was originally intended to help people prioritize things in their life, you can also apply this for everyday use.

Let’s take the previous example of an important report due by the end of the day. On top of that, you need to check and reply to your emails.

Plus, your friends are expecting you for a couple of beers after shift. Now what? Finish your Big Rock (the presentation) first so that it’s quickly out of the way.

Once that’s done, you can simply take time away from the other stuff on your list. As long as there are no more huge surprises, you can end work on time to enjoy the rest of the day.

What beliefs take time away from your day?

You’re probably thinking: but life’s not perfect. In an ideal situation, you can come home early and have enough energy to spend with your loved ones.

Unfortunately no – on most occasions, we need to work overtime. Most days, we just feel like scrolling endlessly on Facebook.

If that’s the case, step back and objectively analyze if such feelings have an underlying cause.

Take the time to reflect on what you need to get done, what you want to accomplish, and who you want to be with.

Be careful with your ideas, because they could shape your actions. But whatever you do, don’t just let things take time away from you. Take back control right away!

Share your thoughts about things that drain your energy during the day with us in the comment section below.

https://everydaypower.com/beliefs-take-time-away/

Topley’s Top 10 – July 13, 2022

July 13, 2022

1. VDE Vanguard Energy ETF -28% Correction

VDE holding 200 day moving average

Holding Blue uptrend trendline going back to 2020

2. Small Cap Energy Fast -36% Correction

PSCE Small Cap Energy ETF

BII-2022-Midyear Outlook Report.pdf

3. Traders Dumped Energy Derivatives Last Week at Fastest Pace Since Covid Crisis

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading Investors dumped petroleum-related derivatives last week at one of the fastest rates of the pandemic era as recession fears intensified – Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 110 million barrels in the six most important petroleum-related futures and options contracts in the week to July 5. Fund managers have now sold a total of 201 million barrels in the past four weeks, according to position records published by ICE Futures Europe and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

4. Historical Market Performance After Big Two Quarter Drops

LPL Research

https://iplresearch.com/2022/07/07/reasons-for-optimism-as-second-half-gets-underway/

5. Global Private Equity Performance.

Irrelevant Investor Blog

Charts

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2022/07/09/talk-your-book-the-state-of-venture-capital/

6. Private Market Record Dry Powder

Dry Powder is Committed Capital that has not yet been Called

7. Home Values Rolling Over in Expensive Markets

Bloomberg-Jonathan Levin

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-12/housing-inventories-may-not-save-prices-after-all?sref=GGda9y2L

8. Rent Inflation Showing No Signs of Slowing.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/johnburns7/

9. Jail Population -25%

A report out this week from USAFacts explored how the US jail population changed during the pandemic — noting that the number of jail inmates had fallen by 25% from 2019 to 2020.

Jailhouse drop

Jails differ from prisons in that they are usually reserved for those awaiting trials or serving sentences under a year for less serious crimes. The falling jail numbers, which followed a ten-year stretch of relative stability, were largely attributed to an increase in expedited releases and a fall in arrests, according to the Bureau of Justice Statistics. Much of the reduction took place at the beginning of the pandemic as authorities looked to ditch some jailhouse detainees to prevent overcrowding, bringing forward the release dates of around 28% of inmates.

The fall in inmates varied depending on charges, with less serious misdemeanor charges seeing the largest fall — 45% year-on-year — across the country.

More broadly the nation experienced an equally-dramatic drop in arrests, with total arrests dropping from 10.1m to 7.6m according to the FBI’s Uniform Crime report, which also contributed to a smaller jail population.

www.chartr.com

10. Americans Have Stopped Moving

Scott Galloway@profgalloway

The tech exodus narrative is a distraction. The real domestic migration trend is … less migration. Specifically, people aren’t moving. In 1948 roughly a fifth of Americans changed residences. That number has been steadily declining since. During the pandemic, we read opinion pieces about everyone quitting their job and moving to Maine. There was a feeling that migration habits were changing; in reality the song remains (increasingly) the same. In 2021 only 8.4% of Americans moved — an all-time low.

It’s been happening for several decades, though nobody can figure out why. An aging population and a younger cohort described as the “complacent generation” are factors, but there must be more. Lack of portable health care and a decline in the lifestyle once sought in the West could also be explainers. My theory is that, like everything else, mobility has become a luxury item costs can only be borne by college grads (who are themselves increasingly anchored by student loan debt).

American mobility has been halved in three decades. Contrast that with China, where over 370 million people live somewhere besides their home region. (Another contrast: A mere 1 million foreigners live in China, placing it 54th among nations by immigrant population.) Why does it matter? Because when capital is not allocated to its best use, growth declines. A lack of mobility also affects culture, resulting in less dynamism, increased aversion to risk, and suspicion of outsiders. Yes, Covid spurred some relocation, but, like the “renewed” labor movement, that’s a blip that likely won’t reverse the secular decline. The problem isn’t that a tech Karen is leaving the Bay Area, it’s that not enough people are leaving any area. “Remote Work” should be called “Work from Home” as it’s decreasingly remote, just at home. Six in 10 people who move stay within their county; eight in 10 stay in-state.

https://www.profgalloway.com/migrant/

Topley’s Top 10 – July 08, 2022

July 8, 2022

1. Consumer Sentiment and 12 Month Stock Market Returns.

JP Morgan

https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/?gclid=Cj0KCQjw5ZSWBhCVARIsALERCvz6pF3ZOBt3DRza-AgFU8QB1IVs5wrv9YOundIf4gXBWfyG6WoVHxoaAtpLEALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds

2. Currency ETF Performance vs. Crypto

U.S. Dollar +9% YTD vs. Bitcoin Trust -65%

https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright

3. Strong U.S. Dollar and Emerging Markets

This chart shows the emerging markets vs. U.S. dollar-a strong downtrend. Emerging market dollar denominated debt more expensive and exports more expensive…

4. U.S. Now Europe’s Biggest Natural Gas Supplier

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading-US overtakes Russia as Europe’s top gas supplier. We’re not even at the end of the beginning of this energy war & Europe remains critically short gas

5. Recession Watch on Transport Stocks

Trucking Index holds 200 week moving average

Dow Transports hold 200 week moving average

6. Luxury Goods Sellers Back to Covid Levels

Kering -50% correction

LVMH -32% correction

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/china-southern-airlines-buy-96-airbus-a320neo-jets-2022-07-01/

7. Chinese state airlines to buy almost 300 Airbus jets

Reuters–BEIJING/SYDNEY, July 1 (Reuters) – China’s “Big Three” state airlines pledged on Friday to buy a total of almost 300 Airbus jets, the biggest order by Chinese carriers since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and a breakthrough for Europe as Boeing remains partially frozen out of China.

In apparently coordinated announcements, Air China (601111.SS) and China Southern Airlines (600029.SS) said they would each buy 96 A320neo-family jets worth $12.2 billion at list prices. China Eastern Airlines (600115.SS) said it would buy 100 airplanes of the same type, worth $12.8 billion.

The final result-Airbus vs. BA 2021

All in all, it seems as though Airbus has edged ahead as the winner in 2021, though the gap doesn’t seem to be as significant as last year.

Aircraft delivered: Airbus
Aircraft ordered: Draw
Active fleet: Boeing
Most flights: Airbus
Aircraft scrapped: Airbus

Airbus 3 – 1 Boeing

Of course, the year has had its ups and downs for both carriers. Airbus has been embroiled in the aforementioned A350 paint issue with Qatar Airways with other carriers reportedly affected. Meanwhile, Boeing 787 Dreamliner deliveries still haven’t resumed three months into 2022. That being said, the Boeing 737 MAX was been ungrounded in many territories last year, and continues to perform strongly for the American planemaker.

Which manufacturer won 2021 in your eyes? Let us know what you think and why in the comments!

Sources: Airbus, Boeing, Cirium, ch-aviation.com, Reuters

https://simpleflying.com/airbus-vs-boeing-2021/#:~:text=Boeing%20accounted%20for%208%2C907%2C948%20flights,flights%20scheduled%20for%20the%20year.&text=While%20Airbus%20is%20the%20overall,to%20645%2C220%20with%20Airbus%20aircraft.

8. DeFi Theft …$1.7Billion Stolen in 2022

Barrons-Theft on DeFi isn’t trivial. Protocols accounted for 97% of the $1.7 billion of crypto stolen in 2022 as of May 1, according to blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis. “It’s a major consumer protection issue that you don’t have recourse if you have funds stolen on DeFi,” says Chainalysis Director of Research Kim Grauer, adding that she’s optimistic protocols will get more secure over time.

“There’s no prohibition against wash-trading on crypto exchanges, no prohibition against proprietary trading, no best-execution rules, and no standardized reporting,” says Timothy Massad, a former chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. “It’s this whole lack of a framework where you can’t compare it to securities that concerns me.”

By [Joe%20Light]Joe LightFollow https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-crypto-crisis-51656620781?mod=past_editions

From CoinLive https://coinlive.me/the-hacks-in-2022-caused-1-7-billion-in-damage-97-of-which-came-from-defi-18796.html

9. No bids on Chevy’s first NFT, even though it came with a free Corvette Z06

By Andrew J. Hawkins @andyjayhawk

· SHAREAll sharing options Chevy’s first foray into non-fungible tokens was a non-fungible dud. The automaker netted zero bids for its first NFT during an auction last month, even though the digital drawing came with a free 2023 Corvette Z06, according to Corvette Blogger.

The NFT, which depicts a lime green Corvette Z06 blasting through a cyberpunk landscape, was created by artist Nick Sullo, who goes by xsullo online. The winning bidder would have also received a unique “Minted Green” Corvette Z06, which will be the only car painted in that color, and an option code RFN, which will “forever associate” the car with the NFT auction. And the Corvette’s VIN number will be in binary because NFTs are digital and computers use binary and you get it.

But alas, there was no winner to ascribe to the blockchain, because mighty Chevy struck out. The automaker was only accepting bids in Ethereum (most NFTs are purchased using Ethereum), the price of which has been extremely volatile in recent weeks. The cryptocurrency has dropped more than 64 percent since April 1st, while the most lauded NFTs have seen their floor price — price for the lowest one on the market — drop more than 70 percent.

BASICALLY, THEY PULLED A MORBIUS.

The auction was held from June 20-24. SuperRare, the NFT marketplace that oversaw the auction, tweeted on June 24th that it would reopen bids for 24 hours because some users “missed” the window. But apparently that didn’t work: the auction closed yet again with zero bids. Basically, they pulled a Morbius.

Trevor Thompkins, a spokesperson for Chevy, shrugged off the disappointment in a statement to Corvette Blogger. “Our first step into Web3 has been educational, and we will continue to explore ways to leverage technology to benefit our customers,” Thompkins said.

No bids on Chevy’s first NFT, even though it came with a free Corvette Z06 – The Verge

From Morningbrew Newsletter https://www.morningbrew.com/daily

10. John Maxwell-Know Your Growth Plan

Success.com Tiger Woods works on his strengths

I was with a group of CEOs and presidents not too long ago and as I was talking to them about this whole process, one of the presidents raised his hand and said, “John, I’m not sure I agree with you when you say not to work on your weaknesses. Take Tiger Woods for example. When he has a bad round of golf, he heads directly to the practice range and may spend two or three hours working on his swing—a perfect example of working on your weaknesses.”

I told this gentleman he just gave a perfect example of the importance of working on your strengths. I think it’s safe to say that Woods is the greatest golfer in the world. So when the greatest golfer in the world is working on his swing because he’s got a little flaw in it, he’s not working on weaknesses. He’s working on strengths. He’s in his Strength Zone working to improve something he’s already good at.

The difference is when I go to the practice range, I’m in my weak zone. For me practice makes permanent. If you’re in your Strength Zone like Woods, practice makes perfect. When I work on my golf swing, I consistently hit a bad shot to the same place every time, which is a big help because then I know where to find it in the woods.

What’s your growth plan?

Success is knowing your purpose in life. But there’s more to it than that; I know people who know their purpose in life but are not successful. You need a growth plan to help you reach your maximum potential. It’s not only knowing what you should do; it’s about growing in that area to maximize and highlight the things that you do well. That’s continual growth.

I had a life-changing experience back in 1973. Attending a seminar in Lancaster, Ohio, a man sitting next to me asked me one of the most important questions I’ve ever been asked. He said, “John, what’s your plan for growth?” I was just a kid in my 20s, not knowing that I was even supposed to have a plan for growth. And so I decided to fake it and proceeded to tell him about my elaborate schedule and how hard I was working toward my goals. I was like a plane circling a field trying to come in for a landing, going around and around until I finally ran out of gas and shut up. As soon as I did he looked at me, smiled and said, “You don’t have a plan, do you?” With a smile, I replied, “Eh, no, no I don’t.”

Then he said words that changed my life. He said, “John, growth is not an automatic process. If you’re going to grow, you need to do so intentionally.” That afternoon I went home and sat down with my wife, Margaret, and said, “I don’t know what a growth plan looks like, but I heard a guy tell me today I needed to have one and I’m going to figure it out.” And I took that whole year to figure out how to do a growth plan, and I’m here to tell you, it changed my life.

That was in the early ’70s. For 30-plus years, I have been on a personal growth plan every year.

The speed of the leader determines the speed of the pack. And the only way that you and I will ever continue to be in front is to continue to learn, grow and make a commitment to it. Highly successful people have a continual thirst for knowledge and are always asking questions.

What you do today determines your success

I don’t think success is a mystery. I think it’s tangible and achievable for everyone, but it’s going to start with this statement: The secret of your success is determined by your daily agenda, by what you and I do—today.

I believe this principle so much I wrote a book called Today Matters, and in the book I write about how we overexaggerate yesterday, we overestimate tomorrow and we underestimate today.

You see, every day you are either repairing or preparing. Every day you’re either trying to fix yesterday—relationships, issues, priorities, lost opportunities—or you are living your life in such a way that you are preparing for tomorrow and setting up success almost as a given.

Highly successful people know their purpose in life, they grow to their maximum potential and they sow seeds that benefit others. They don’t live for themselves. They’re a river, not a reservoir. They understand what significance is—adding vaue to others.

John C. Maxwell

Articles

John C. Maxwell, an internationally respected leadership expert, speaker, and author who has sold more than 18 million books, has been named an inaugural SUCCESS Ambassador. Dr. Maxwell is the founder of EQUIP, a non-profit organization that has trained more than 5 million leaders in 126 countries worldwide. A New York Times, Wall Street Journal and BusinessWeek; best-selling author, Maxwell has written three books that have sold more than a million copies.

https://www.success.com/finding-your-purpose/

Topley’s Top 10 – July 07, 2022

July 6, 2022

1. Publicly Traded Warehouse Companies -30%+ Corrections

TRNO -35%

EGP -33%

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-01/klarna-discussing-valuation-cut-to-6-billion-from-45-6-billion?sref=GGda9y2L

2. One Month Solar Stocks -4% vs. Energy -22%

TAN solar ETF vs. XLE energy ETF

www.yahoofinance.com

3. Buy Now Pay Later Swedish Unicorn Klarna Valuation $45B to $6B

Valuation re-set for valuation as borrowing costs spike

4. 20 Day Move in Commodities Third Largest Decline in 90 Years

Jim Reid Deutsche Bank-Earlier this year commodities and bonds saw some of their biggest moves for decades, or all time in some cases, mostly in the direction of higher yields and commodity prices.

Over the last few days, these big moves are back again but mostly in the other direction as recession fears mount and central bank expectations are pared back.

The rolling 20-day move in our commodity index is now seeing around the third largest decline in 90 years (hat tip to DB’s Tom Sykes for pointing out), behind only the GFC, the initial Covid shock, and on a par with that seen in the early days of WWII in 1940. In March, we saw the fourth largest 20-day uptick after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The start of WWII and two occasions in the 1970s were the only bigger moves.

In addition, 10yr bunds have seen their joint largest 10-day fall in yields since reunification, equalling a move seen during the GFC.

2022 has seen many such moves across many different asset classes and as such will go down as one of the most volatile years for financial markets on record.

5. 20 Year Treasury Bond -23% Correction

Another bond chart 50 week thru 200 week to downside

https://twitter.com/charliebilello

6. Euro Zone Inflation 8.6% vs. Interest Rates Negative

@Charlie Bilello Eurozone inflation has moved up to 8.6%, its highest level ever. Meanwhile, the ECB is still holding interest rates at negative levels. This is perhaps the greatest disconnect between easy monetary policy and unabating rising prices that the world has ever seen.

7. Above Leading to 20 Year Low in Euro vs. Dollar

EURO breaks to new lows

8. Utility Stocks and Semiconductor Stocks Now Have the Same Forward P/E Ratio 20x

This chart shows XLU utility ETF vs. SMH semiconductor ETF this year….outperformance by utilities led to reversion in valuations