TOPLEY’S TOP 10 October 08, 2024

1. OPEN AI Valuation vs. Other Big Tech

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2. The Rally is Spreading to Other Sectors/Market Caps

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Source: Grant Hawkridge


3. Rate Sensitive Sectors Leading

Private client flows. Clients continue buying rate-sensitive areas (REITs, Financials, Utilities) and selling defensive (Low-vol, Staples).

Michael Hartnett – BofA


4. FANG+ ETF Never Got Back to July Highs


5. Tesla Failed at July Highs


6. Past Chinese Stock Market Rallies Have Been Powered by Stimulus….KWEB Chinese Internet ETF +50% in One Month.

Of the five major stock-market rallies in China in the past quarter-century, three were powered by stimulus. Stocks during those episodes notched trough-to-peak gains of between 50% and 100%, suggesting this rally could have much further to run if policymakers follow through with meaningful stimulus and property-market support, Thomas Gatley, China strategist at Gavekal Dragonomics, wrote in a report Monday. By
Rebecca Feng and Jason Douglas https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-manufacturing-gauge-signals-continued-weakness-in-economy-3a729f33


7. META/RAY BAN Eyeglasses

TECH
Will these be the end of privacy?

Ray-Ban Meta Smart Glasses

Josh Edelson/Getty Images
In a shocking turn of events, someone was able to use a new high-powered tech product for evil. Two Harvard students paired the Ray-Ban Meta Smart Glasses with facial recognition software to rapidly identify strangers and compile their personal information from the internet to highlight the privacy concerns that are getting unboxed with easily accessible consumer tech.
In a video posted to X, AnhPhu Nguyen and Caine Ardayfio explained how they built I-XRAY. The program uses the glasses to capture images of random people on campus and at a train station, identify them through a publicly accessible facial recognition search site like PimEyes, and then use a large language model (LLM) to trawl the web and compile the person’s information. Nguyen and Ardayfio could access people’s addresses, the names of their parents, and photos in mere minutes, and even approached unsuspecting people using the info they collected to make them think they had met before.
The creators said they would not release the code for this program but created it to highlight how it’s possible to build invasive tech with recent advancements like smart glasses and LLMs.

  • When 404 Media approached Meta for comment about the project, it said that similar information gathering could be used with any camera.
  • Meta’s smart glasses have a small light that comes on when the wearer is recording, but many people report it being hard to see in crowded spaces and bright lighting outside.
  • Nguyen and Ardayfio said they chose the glasses specifically for their inconspicuousness.

Big picture: Searching through someone’s info online has been around since Facebook introduced poking, but with the right tools, like artificial intelligence, it’s easier, faster, and potentially more invasive.—MM

META Powers to New Highs.


8. U.S. Dollar has Best Week in Two Years


9. ‘It’s going to be a mess’: The flood insurance crisis following Helene’s wreckage

Only 2 percent of households in flooded parts of Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina can get insurance paymentss
Cindy White looks over the devastation inside her home in North Carolina caused by Hurricane Helene. Only a tiny number of households in North Carolina have flood insurance. | Kathy Kmonicek/AP
By Avery Ellfeldt Hundreds of thousands of people across parts of the Southeast will struggle to rebuild their homes after Hurricane Helene for one reason: Hardly anyone has flood insurance.
In dozens of counties in Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina that were flooded by Helene, less than 1 percent of households have flood insurance through the federal program that sells almost all of the nation’s flood policies.
“People never thought they would have a problem with flooding,” said Jimmy Isaacs, fire chief of Boone, North Carolina, a mountainous town in Watauga County, where less than 2.5 percent of households are insured. “It’s going to be a difficult recovery.”
Helene is highlighting the major gaps in U.S. flood insurance and their consequences as climate change amplifies flood risk both from coastal storm surge and rapidly overflowing rivers in Boone and other inland areas.
Flood insurance is sold separately from homeowners’ insurance, which typically does not cover flood damage. The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Flood Insurance Program covers 4.6 million homes and businesses.
But the overwhelming number of people who don’t live on the coasts do not purchase coverage either because they aren’t required to, can’t afford to or don’t think they’re at risk. The result is a dangerously low number take it, leaving millions of people without financial protection from floods and their increasing damage.
States flooded by Helene exemplify the problem. In North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia, just 2 percent of households in counties that are declared a federal disaster area have FEMA flood insurance, according to a POLITICO’s E&E News analysis of agency records.
In South Carolina, just 0.5 percent of the 770,000 households in disaster counties have FEMA insurance.
In North Carolina, 0.8 percent of households in disaster counties have FEMA insurance.
In Georgia, 8.5 percent of properties in disaster counties have FEMA insurance, though the figure is inflated by a large number of policies in coastal Chatham County, which includes Savannah. Excluding Chatham, 0.7 percent of households in disaster counties have FEMA insurance
In Florida, which has one of the highest rates of FEMA coverage, 24 percent of households in disaster counties are covered. The next disaster after Helene: Almost no victims had flood insurance. – POLITICO


10. Twenty questions-Seth’s Blog

Your next project might feel like a calling, but it’s a choice. A choice that will have an impact on each day you spend on it.
There are no right answers here, but before you fall in love with a business or an organization, it may pay to think about these and other options that are built in:

  • Are you selling to consumers?
  • Are you raising money?
  • Do you serve one person at a time or does a committee have to agree?
  • Is there a network effect to the work you do?
  • Is the margin on each item low?
  • What’s the lifetime value of a new patron, customer or partner?
  • Is the work time sensitive?
  • Do you meet with people in person?
  • Are you answering RFPs or are people seeking you out by name?
  • Is price or yield or efficiency the dominant metric in making a choice?
  • Will you create value with your personal effort or by managing others?
  • How will people find out about what you do?
  • Is accuracy the most important part of what you deliver?
  • Can a competitor who works far more hours have a big advantage over you?
  • What’s the effluent, waste or side effects of what you create?
  • Are you likely to spend time working with peers you like?
  • Are you likely to respect your customers?
  • How much time after you begin before you expect your metrics to be positive?
  • Is the learning curve steep?
  • After you’ve learned how to do this, does it become boring?

Pick your customers, pick your future.
PS Joel recommended this post from fourteen years ago.
https://seths.blog/