Topley’s Top 10 – October 07, 2022

1. 2000-2021 Returns…S&P Not the Winner.

JP Morgan Guide to the Markets

https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/?gclid=Cj0KCQjw-fmZBhDtARIsAH6H8qi8JUsh8a2jMW-dL7i9oVNRYNU1duITvfMD4z-MSZU8krg_Ws_nR9waAoyoEALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds


2. Presidential Cycle Stock Market Seasonality

Dan Stratemeier Managing DirectorEquities, Event Driven Strategies-Jefferies


3. Rally in Market Happen without Stock Buybacks and Retail Investor Buying.

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading.

This rally has been occurring with nearly 70% of companies are in the “Buyback Blackout” ahead of Earnings

And without retail participation – According to AAII survey results, retail investors are selling in size to raise cash for the first time since the COVID crash.


4. PKW Buyback ETF Holding 200 Week Moving Average

www.stockcharts.com


5. Carmax -55% …No More Used Car Price Inflation

www.stockcharts.com


6. Canadians Own 32% of American Farmland

Noah Wicks

https://www.agri-pulse.com/articles/17107-foreign-interests-keep-buying-us-acreage-with-focus-on-southwest


7. Solar Power and Batteries Account for 60% of Planned New U.S. Electric Generation

From Barry Ritholtz Blog

https://ritholtz.com/2022/10/10-thursday-am-reads-405/


8. Sequencing Human Genome Getting Cheaper and Cheaper.

CHARTR.com Nobel efforts Svante Pääbo, a Swedish scientist, has won the Nobel Prize for his reconstruction of a full genome for Neanderthals and other extinct hominins. Pääbo’s prize, officially the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, carried a 10m Swedish Kronor prize (~$920k USD) and was the first of the six awards to be announced this week. The impressive work, which saw Pääbo pioneer methods to extract and analyze DNA from Neanderthal bones, is experimentation that will hopefully get easier over time, as the cost of genome sequencing continues to fall.

Indeed, Illumina  a company which has some 80% share of the global gene sequencing market — unveiled two new sequencing instruments this week. The company claims these tools will bring the cost of sequencing a full genome to less than $240 and give the company capacity to sequence ~20,000 genomes a year, up from 7,500. Tell those numbers to a scientist from the year 2000, when one human genome sequence would cost close to $100m, and they’d likely laugh you out of the lab.

The whole gene

What about that $99 at-home DNA test kit you bought online? That only takes a snippet, usually around 0.02% of your DNA, using clues to predict your disease risks and ancestry.

Whole-genome sequencing, on the other hand, provides 4,000 times more data on your DNA than at-home tests, and is likely to lend a hand in major medical breakthroughs. The process helped the speedy creation of vaccines for Covid-19, can help the early detection of disease outbreaks, identify inherited disorders and even characterize genetic cell mutations in cancer patients.

www.chartr.com


9. RANKED: Alaska, New Mexico and Tennessee top the list of states with the highest rates of murder, rape and other violent crime, while Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont have the lowest, study says

  • Alaska has the highest violent crime rates: 837.8 per 100,000 people
  • The Last Frontier has more men and more heavy drinkers than elsewhere in the U.S. 
  • Lawmen are spread thin across the vast 665,000 square mile territory
  • Indigenous people also make up 19.6 percent of the state’s population
  • Low-crime states like Maine and Vermont benefit from ‘social safety nets’, experts say
  • Still, most crime is ‘hyper-concentrated’ in rough parts of a city, says expert Rafael Mangual

By JAMES REINL, SOCIAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT, FOR DAILYMAIL.COM

RANKED: Alaska, New Mexico and Tennessee have highest rates of murder, rape and other violent crime | Daily Mail Online


10. 8 Foods That Contribute to Anxiety and Depression

… and how to limit or avoid products that can jeopardize mood.

 

KEY POINTS  Susan McQuillan

 

  • Some foods are likely to affect your levels of anxiety and depression more than others.
  • Commercially processed foods can negatively affect your mental health.
  • Common junk foods are the worst offenders; they contain too much sugar or unhealthy fats, and are nutritionally depleted.

 

When university and medical school researchers from North and South America* set out to explore the theory that processed foods contribute to poor mental health, they found ultra-processed foods (UPF) to be the worst offenders. Ultra-processed foods are commercially prepared convenience food products that contain little to no whole food ingredients, often lack essential nutrients, and often contain additives, such as flavorings, colorings, and other products that make the food more appealing to consumers. In other words, they in no way resemble the original food sources from which they are made.

UPF products are generally quick and easy to prepare or ready to eat out of their packaging, and they are often less expensive than whole foods, especially when they are available from generic or store brands. That helps explain why more than 70 percent of all packaged foods sold in the United States are deemed UPF, and those food products represent around 60 percent of all calories consumed in this country.

Upon review of self-reported, nationally representative dietary records of more than 10,000 men and women age 18 and older, the study authors were able to name the eight UPFs most commonly consumed. These include:

  • Sugar-sweetened drinks
  • Reconstituted meat products
  • Packaged snack foods
  • Chips
  • Breakfast cereals
  • Cookies
  • Cake
  • Bread

The researchers also collected data from the participants to measure three specific mental health symptoms: general mild depression, number of anxious days, and number of mentally unhealthy days. They found that those participants who reportedly consumed the most UPFs had a significantly higher rate of mild depression and reported significantly more anxious and mentally unhealthy days.

Previous research has found that food additives used in UPF, such as artificial sweeteners and emulsifiers, are linked to changes in the brain, increased inflammation, and altered metabolism. Other studies have found that people who lack essential nutrients in their diet and consume large amounts of food high in sugar are at significantly higher risk of developing depression and anxiety than those who eat a healthier diet, such as a Mediterranean-style diet that’s higher in natural, nutrient-rich, and less processed foods, such as seafood, vegetables, olive oil, legumes, and nuts.

article continues after advertisement

*Researchers are affiliated with Charles E Schmidt College of Medicine at Florida Atlantic University, University of Sao Paulo, University of South Carolina Department of Medicine, Georgetown University Medical Center, and University of Kentucky College of Medicine.

Facebook image: Flotsam/Shutterstock

LinkedIn image: Trzykropy/Shutterstock

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/cravings/202208/8-foods-contribute-anxiety-and-depression

Topley’s Top 10 – October 05, 2022

1. Q3 Final Performance Grid

From Nasdaq Dorsey Wright www.dorseywright.com

2. Hedge Funds are Record Short

3. Midcap and Small Cap Forward P/E Back to 2008 Levels.

Ed Yardeni –S&P still high…Mid/Small back 2008

https://twitter.com/yardeni

4. Historical October Lows in Market

Callum Thomas Chart Storm

https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-2-october

5. 30 Worst Performing Stocks in Russell 1000

Bespoke Investment Group

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/research/think-big-blog/

6. Since 2000 The Average Move on the 10 Year Treasury During Major Moves Higher is 1.8%……We Moved 3.4% Since August 2020

LPL Research

https://lplresearch.com/2022/10/04/raising-our-10-year-treasury-yield-year-end-forecast/

7. Global M2 Money Supply has Decreased $4Trillion

Morgan Stanley Chief Equity Strategist Mike Wilson -M2 for the “big four” economies: the U.S., China, the eurozone and Japan, peaked in March 2021, and thereafter, has decreased by $4 trillion, according to Wilson’s data.

Tracking the rate of change in the money supply for these economies is important, Wilson said, since it tends to be correlated with lower equity prices, as the chart below shows.

MORGAN STANLEY

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-will-continue-falling-even-after-fed-pivots-warns-morgan-stanley-strategist-who-predicted-bear-market-11664821513?siteid=yhoof2

8. 97% of Stocks were Positive 3 of Past 5 Trading Days

This stock market comeback is unprecedented by one measure

Alex Harring@ALEX_HARRING
KEY POINTS

  • Susquehanna noted that 97% of S&P 500 stocks are up for the third time in the past five trading days.
  • It is the first time since at least 2000 that the broader market index has seen such strength at the stock level.

Traders work on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., May 20, 2022.
Andrew Kelly | Reuters

The S&P 500 has done something it hasn’t in at least two decades, according to Susquehanna.

Chris Murphy, Susquehanna’s co-head of derivatives strategy, noted that 97% of S&P 500 stocks are up for the third time in the past five trading days. It marks the first time since at least 2000 that the broader market index has seen such strength at the stock level.

Investors watch the 97% marker because the index typically pulls back after a day with that percentage of its components up, Murphy said.

He also noted that prior to last week, this week marked the first time since Aug. 25, 2015 that 97% of S&P 500 components were up in two of the previous five trading days. After that, the S&P 500 rebounded about 13% before hitting a new low six months later, he said.

The relief rally seen this week follows a difficult last month and quarter for the stock market, as the major indexes slid and jittery investors grew increasingly concerned about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes and the probability of an incoming recession.

Through the week’s first two trading sessions, the S&P 500 is up more than 5%. Tuesday was the best day for the S&P 500 since 2020.

—CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/04/this-stock-market-comeback-is-unprecedented-by-one-measure.html

9. Wolf Street-Office Space Major Cities

Commercial real estate advisory Savills today released the first batch of its Q3 quarterly office market reports on the major markets in the US, 12 markets in total. Houston tops the list in terms of the largest share of vacant office space on the market, with an availability rate of 30.7%. San Francisco is second with 28.9%, and shooting higher. A big issue is sublease space. This is space for which companies are still paying rent to the landlord, but they’re not occupying it, and instead they’re trying to find sublease tenants for it to help defray the expenses of that space. These companies will price their sublease space aggressively since they don’t have to make a profit on this office space, but just want to lower their costs of holding it until the lease expires. Sublease space puts downward pressure on effective rents – even as landlords are typing to hold the line.

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/10/04/office-reits-massacred-as-the-future-that-office-markets-were-built-for-got-cancelled-by-working-from-home/

10. 3 Exercises to Nail Your Point-INC

Use these techniques to concisely communicate the big goal and how to get there.
BY JOEL SCHWARTZBERG, AUTHOR, “THE LANGUAGE OF LEADERSHIP”@THEJOELTRUTH

Photo: Getty Images

One of the most important ideas running through my trainings, articles, podcasts, and books is this: To make a point, you must know your point. And knowing your point starts with knowing what a point is.

If you don’t have or know your true point, everything you say will be pointless — and neither your team nor you want that.

An effective point combines two elements:

  1. An articulation of the impact.
  2. A mechanism to produce that impact.

It isn’t the mechanism alone (“We will streamline our sales process!”) or the impact alone (“We must increase revenue!”). A solid point connects both, as in:

“Streamlining our sales process will enable us to double revenue by the fourth quarter.”

Getting from a non-point to a sharp point in your communications is not just a matter of choosing the right words but having the right mindset. As Albert Einstein once said, “If you can’t explain it simply, you don’t understand it well enough.”

Below are three easy exercises to help you build that understanding, construct meaningful points, and express them simply and sharply.

1. The “I Believe That” Test

Can your point fit into this phrase: “I believe that ________________” so that it forms a complete sentence?

Let’s take some random professional points and apply the test. If you took Language Arts in junior high, you know these are not complete sentences:

“I believe that increasing fourth-quarter revenue”

“I believe that the new online scheduling system”

“I believe that investing in cloud technology”

In forcing you to construct a complete sentence, this test will prompt you to produce lines like these:

“I believe that celebrity endorsements will increase our fourth quarter revenue.”

“I believe that the new online scheduling system will make our sales process more efficient.”

“I believe that investing in cloud technology will reduce our carbon footprint.”

Once you have a complete sentence, you are well on your way to making a sharp point. If you don’t have a complete sentence, reconstruct it so that it would earn you a check-plus in that Language Arts class.

2. The Formula

In my experience, effective points also follow a simple equation (far simpler than E=mc2):

“If we do X, Y will result.”

X is the mechanism, Y is the impact, and you can see how they manifest in the “I believe that” examples above.

“I believe that the new online scheduling system (X) will make our sales process more efficient (Y).”

Just make sure your X is a specific process, tool, resource, or commitment. Simply “doing better” and “working harder” will not suffice.

Keep your Y specific as well, and make sure you are expressing the most valuable or ultimate impact, not just a “badjective” or a short-term milestone:

Is the ultimate goal simply increasing website traffic or selling more product?

Is the ultimate goal merely spreading social awareness or increasing community activity?

Is the ultimate goal increasing financial contributions or saving lives with those funds?

Think of the people on the other side of the table or screen — perhaps a client, a customer, a partner, or your team. At the end of the day, what impact do they value most? The answer to that question should match your Y.

3. The Magic Words

To ensure my students and clients do more selling than sharing, I encourage them to adopt these point-forcing power phrases:

I propose

I recommend

I suggest

Similar to “I believe that,” these phrases force the creation of a true point that includes — maybe with mild tweaking — both a mechanism and an impact.

These phrases are also attention magnets. Saying “Here’s what I propose…” is a beacon for audience interest, and you certainly can’t say “I propose,” “I recommend,” or “I suggest” without proposing, recommending, or suggesting something. Magic!

These phrases are also valuable for professional development. Don’t immediately make a recommendation when someone you supervise comes to you with a status report or situation. Instead, ask them for one — “What do you recommend?” If you keep asking this question, sooner or later, that person will say, “Here’s the situation… and here’s what I recommend we do.”

I believe that people who use these power phrases are seen as leaders and eventually become them.

What happens when leaders elevate their broad ideas and topics into sharp points? They don’t just inform. They engage, they inspire, and they activate impact. That’s the power of having a point and the point of having power.

3 Exercises to Nail Your Point | Inc.com

Topley’s Top 10 – October 04, 2022

1. Credit Suisse CDS Hits 2008 Levels.

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/


2. Is the Dollar Finally Hitting a Pause in Rally?

www.stockcharts.com


3. MOVE Bond Volatility Index Hit Previous Highs

Bond VIX volatility index hit $155….Historically the top in rising rates.

Barrons By Lisa BeilfussThe Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate, or MOVE, index, shows how violent the action has been in the U.S. Treasury market. Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, notes that the index, which captures bond-market volatility much like the Cboe Volatility IndexVIX –0.69% , or VIX, does with the stock market, hit about 159 during the past week. That is the highest level since 2009, with a lone exception in March 2020, early in the pandemic. Bianco says that every time the MOVE index has gotten above 155, the Fed has panicked and eased policy.

For investors conditioned to expect the Fed to backstop markets, this would suggest that at least a pivot away from aggressive tightening is in sight—and a return to rate cuts and QE might not be far behind that.Don’t bet on it just yet. Not only is the current turbulence the consequence of the Fed waiting too long to address inflation; it is also the result of some policy makers and investors missing the point that the economy has fundamentally changed since the pandemic, Bianco says.  https://www.barrons.com/articles/federal-reserve-put-stock-market-economy-51664579357?mod=Searchresults

https://markets.ft.com/data/indices/tearsheet/summary?s=MOVE:PSE


4. 2000 and 2008 Last Time S&P was Down 3 Quarters in a Row

Michael Batnick For just the third time in a long time, the stock market has declined for three consecutive quarters.

Making Lemonade in the Stock Market – The Irrelevant Investor


5. Inflation Slowdown?…COMT Commodity ETF…Bearish Chart Action

COMT 50day thru 200day to downside….trading below 200 day most of September


6. Inflation Slowdown? Baltic Dry Shipping Index -70% from Highs


7. U.K. Stock Market ETF…Just Above Covid Lows…Trading at 8.5x earnings.


8. VNQ-Vanguard Real Estate Trades Back to Covid Levels.

A lot of charts below 200 week moving average and back to covid levels

www.stockcharts.com


9. Electric vehicle startups face an uphill climb

Joann Muller, author of Axios What’s Next

UPS-backed electric vehicle startup Arrival built its first delivery van last week — a significant milestone, considering the challenges it and other upstart EV makers like it are facing.

Why it matters: Arrival and other fledgling commercial EV companies are struggling to launch production as funding dwindles and bigger rivals like GM and Ford start to crank out electric trucks and vans of their own.

  • Some newbies have already collapsed, like Electric Last Mile Solutions, which went bankrupt in June.
  • For the rest, the goal is to at least show progress to investors — which is why Arrival made such a big deal about producing a single van on what happened to be the last day of the third quarter.

Driving the news: Arrival said Friday it had missed its third-quarter target to start serial production, but celebrated the fact that it produced its first “production verification vehicle” — in other words, an early prototype.

  • “Although we have not yet achieved serial production, we are focused on making it happen,” founder and CEO Denis Sverdlov said in a statement.
  • Scaling is more difficult than he imagined, Sverdlov told Reuters. “We are going through our own production hell,” he said, echoing Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s comments during the troubled launch of the Model 3.

The big picture: Other struggling EV manufacturers face similar challenges as financing options tighten.

  • Lordstown Motors last week said it began production of the Endurance, an electric pickup truck for businesses. So far, it has built a grand total of two and aims to build 50 by year-end. It too is looking to raise more cash.
  • Faraday Future said it will start production of its long-delayed FF 91 sports car by the end of 2022 with $100 million in new financing after resolving an investor dispute.
  • Canoo, which is also struggling to start production, has decided to outsource manufacturing to a third party.
  • Rivian is leaning on a lucrative Amazon contract while it boosts consumer production — but it too recently laid off 6% of its workforce.

https://www.axios.com/2022/10/03/electric-vehicle-startups-arrival


10. How to Harvest Your Hidden Intelligence

Three ways to enhance experiential intelligence. Lindsey Godwin Ph.D.

KEY POINTS

  • Our popular notions of IQ and EQ are no longer sufficient to predict success in today’s perpetually disrupted world.
  • Experiential intelligence offers a complement to IQ and EQ by inviting us to leverage the wisdom we accumulate through our experiences.
  • There are specific strategies we can employ to enhance our experiential intelligence and gain new wisdom to set us up for success in the future.

As autumn returns with its promise of pumpkin spice lattes, corn mazes, and fall festivals, my mind turns to the notion of harvesting. Defined as collecting a resource in order to use it in the future effectively,” there are many things we harvest this season to sustain us through the year. Reflecting on our psychological resources, there is one garden in our lives we often neglect to fully harvest during the year: our experiences. Our myriad of past experiences, however, provides each of us with a cornucopia of wisdom to be leveraged into future successes if we take the time to harvest it.

Exploring the rich harvesting that is available to us through our experiences is exactly what Dr. Soren Kaplan does in his forthcoming book, Experiential Intelligence: Harness the Power of Experience for Personal and Business Breakthroughs. Kaplan (2023) defines experiential intelligence (XQ) as “the combination of mindsets, abilities, and know-how gained from your experiences.” More specifically, the three elements are:

  • Mindsets: Attitudes and beliefs about yourself, other people, and the world.
  • Abilities: Competencies that help you integrate your knowledge, skills, and experiences so you can respond to situations in the most effective way possible.
  • Know-How: Knowledge and skills.

For more than a century since German psychologist William Stern coined the term intelligence quotient (IQ), we have explored the notion of general intelligence as a gauge of future success. Nearly 50 years ago, we added emotional intelligence (EQ) as a complementary piece to the success puzzle of life. What we have yet to fully harvest and recognize as an important element for cultivating success is the latent intelligence that comes from our lived experiences. While the notion of multiple forms of intelligence endures within our zeitgeist, we have primarily focused on IQ and EQ as the core pillars for understanding our personal and professional achievements. Yet, perhaps we have been missing an important piece of the puzzle in our neglect to explore the wisdom gained through our array of past experiences. Experiential intelligence offers a complement to IQ and EQ by providing a framework for harvesting the accumulated wisdom and talents we have grown over time through our personal and professional experiences.

In many ways, XQ offers us a new lens through which to unpack our history in a way that sets us up for success in the future. Just as many have written about ways to increase our EQ, and even possibly expand our IQ (for example, see Relational Frame Theory that suggests IQ is a reflection of learned relational skills that can be enhanced over time), so too can we enhance our XQ. Specifically, we can:

1.   Get Curious About Successes. Our XQ can be deepened through unpacking our past wins. Too often we treat our successes as accidents, or not worthy of deeper inquiry, when in fact just the opposite is true. Much had to go right in order for our successes to have occurred, and reflecting upon how we were able to exercise our unique mindsets, abilities, and know-how to create those successes is key to developing our XQ. The next time something goes right at work or home, ask yourself, “What were the mindsets, abilities, and know-how that led me to be successful and how can I leverage them further in the future?” Success can beget success if we harvest our learnings from our experiences.

2.   Reframe Failures. If we begin to see all experiences as an opportunity for expanding our XQ, we begin to recognize that even when things didn’t turn out as we hoped, there is rich learning to be gained from reflecting on our experience. Instead of kicking ourselves for not succeeding, we can instead ask ourselves, “What are the mindsets, abilities, and know-how I will need in the future to be successful?” This simple shift can increase our XQ and help turn breakdowns into breakthroughs.

3.   Cultivate New Experiences. We can also bolster our XQ through the intentional pursuit of new and diverse experiences. Seeking out and creating diverse experiences offers an opportunity to add new chapters to our life’s book. The more diverse experiential text we have to draw upon, the more opportunities we have to deepen our XQ. Ask yourself, “What new experiences might help me expand my mindsets, abilities, and know-how?”

Farrah Gray once said, “Inside every seed is the potential for an incredible harvest.” Similarly, inside every experience is the potential for an incredible harvest of learning to expand our mindsets, abilities, and know-how. XQ invites us to become perpetual harvesters of our past to create better futures.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/possibilitizing/202210/how-harvest-your-hidden-intelligence

Topley’s Top 10 – October 03, 2022

1. Global Bonds and Stocks Record Drawdown

This year’s pullback outpaces steep declines seen during the 2008-2009 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic, based on the drop in market value of the Bloomberg GlobalAgg Index and the MSCI All-Country World Stocks Index combined.

Perhaps this is not surprising given the tidal wave of cash that flooded into world markets during the easy years. But the pace of this year’s value destruction is still alarming: the $36 trillion shaved off markets in nine months had been amassed over roughly double that time, between mid-2020 and late-2021. 

ByJan-Patrick Barnert https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-01/raging-markets-selloff-in-five-charts-36-trillion-and-counting?sref=GGda9y2L


2. Nowhere to Hide…Defensive Utilities Drop a Fast -15%

www.stockcharts.com


3. Nowhere to Hide…Defensive Consumer Staples Drop a Fast -16%

www.stockcharts.com


4. Money Supply is Collapsing.

Zero Hedge Collapse In Money Supply Is Still A Major Risk For The Market BY TYLER DURDEN  Via SchiffGold.com, Money Supply growth was barely positive in August at $2B and sits well below the $233B seen last year. As the chart below shows, Money Supply growth has collapsed since February. Last year started with five straight months above $200B, whereas 2022 has only seen one month above $100B and that was January.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/collapse-money-supply-still-major-risk-market

Investopedia–What Happens When the Federal Reserve Limits the Money Supply?  A country’s money supply has a significant effect on a country’s macroeconomic profile, particularly in relation to interest rates, inflation, and the business cycle. In America, the Federal Reserve determines the level of monetary supply.2 When the Fed limits the money supply via contractionary or hawkish monetary policy, interest rates rise and the cost of borrowing increases. This can dampen inflationary pressures, but also risk slowing down economic growth.


5. Retail Investors Buying More Puts than Calls…Contra Indicator

Retail investors’ put options have now exceeded calls, as they did in early 2020.

Source: Vanda Research

 https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-september-30th-2022/


6. Put/Call Ratio Hitting Lows of 2018 and 2020

-Past signal of short-term rally.  JC at All-Star Charts You can see it in the Put/Call Ratio hitting levels last seen at the 2018 and 2020 market lows:

https://allstarcharts.com/the-bulls-have-left-the-building/    From Abnormal Returns Blog www.abnormalreturns.com


7. A Few Slides on the American Demographic Dilemma….Growth of U.S. Working Age Population Shrinking then Negative in 2021

John Burns Real Estate

https://www.linkedin.com/in/johnburns7/


8. Prime-Age Working Males Ugly Chart

Demographic-Drought.pdf


9. Women Surpassed Men in College….Now Women Overtake Men in White Collar Workforce

Women now outnumber men in the U.S. college-educated labor force BY RICHARD FRY  Women have overtaken men and now account for more than half (50.7%) of the college-educated labor force in the United States, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of government data. The change occurred in the fourth quarter of 2019 and remains the case today, even though the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a sharp recession and an overall decline in the size of the nation’s labor force.

Women now represent a majority of the college-educated labor force in the U.S. | Pew Research Center


10. The Most Common Symptoms of Low Dopamine

By

Elizabeth Plumptre 

Dopamine is a neurotransmitter, or chemical, that plays the important role of sending signals from the brain to the body. It is produced naturally in different key sections of the brain and is important for functions such as motor skills, cognitive abilities, and reproduction.

This neurotransmitter spikes in anticipation of something important which is about to happen, plays key roles in the body’s reward and motivation system, and also affects memory.

Dopamine performs these important functions despite making up only a small percentage—less than 1% —of the brain’s neurons.1 In the right amount, this neurotransmitter is crucial for brain function, but when this amount is lowered beyond a prescribed point, it can just as equally have an unintended consequence on the body. Dopamine deficiency has been linked to neurodegenerative conditions in the body.

To understand the effects of low dopamine, we’ll first examine the signs and causes of this condition. Then, we’ll learn about the conditions most commonly linked to dopamine deficiency for a keener understanding of its effects. Finally, we’ll share the ways you can maintain your body’s production of this important neurotransmitter.

 What Is Dopamine?

Symptoms of Low Dopamine 

With links to conditions like schizophrenia and Parkinson’s disease, dopamine deficiency can exhibit similar traits with these conditions. These traits include:

  • Chronic back pain2
  • Persistent constipation3
  • Weight fluctuations4
  • Dysphagia or difficulty swallowing5
  • Sleep disorders6
  • Fatigue7
  • Attention difficulties8
  • Reduced sex drive9
  • Hallucinations and delusions10
  • Aspiration pneumonia11
  • Low moods12

Causes of Low Dopamine 

A number of factors may be responsible for reduced dopamine in the body. These include sleep deprivation, obesity, drug abuse, saturated fat, and stress. Here’s a closer look at each.

Sleep Deprivation 

Besides your morning coffee, dopamine is one of the reasons you feel refreshed and alert most mornings. This wakefulness is promoted by dopamine receptors, in particular the D2 receptor. These receptors help to mediate the functions of dopamine in the body.

However, sleep deprivation can reduce the number of D2 receptors in important parts of the brain. Where this happens, the transmission and production of dopamine is impacted.

In fact, with a condition like Parkinson’s disease which sustains low dopamine levels, most people feel excessive daytime sleepiness.13

Obesity 

Obesity has been linked to a number of health conditions, but one less known effect is the role it plays in downregulating or reducing the amount of dopamine in the brain.

Like the results of sleep deprivation, obesity can lead to a reduction in D2 receptors in the brain.14 This becomes especially obvious when comparisons are made with the number of receptors in people who are not obese.15

Drug Abuse

During early usage, certain drugs may contribute to an increase in dopamine. Cocaine is one drug that has been known to produce euphoria and increased dopamine levels following usage.

However, long-term use of these drugs is certain to offer diminishing returns, especially where dopamine production is concerned.

Because of the sustained increase in dopamine production following drug use, the brain intervenes to reduce the number of dopamine receptors available.16

Saturated Fat 

When you have fried chicken, buttered bread, chocolate, and other foods high in saturated fats, your brain understandably lights up with dopamine at all the pleasure you’re receiving from these foods.

However, while these foods only produce short-term enjoyment. Over time, persistently observing a high-fat diet disrupts central nervous system functioning, where dopamine is produced. When it is disrupted, this can lead to a dopamine deficit.17

Stress

There are very few things stress is good for, and maintaining optimal dopamine levels isn’t one of them. When you are constantly exposed to stressors like financial difficulty, relationship troubles, workplace stress, and more, this can affect your body’s production of dopamine. Over time, this may also lead to a deficiency of the neurotransmitter in the body.

Conditions Linked With Dopamine Deficiency 

Major Depressive Disorder

Major depressive disorder is one of the most severe mental and behavioral disorders. It is characterized by prolonged depressive moods, or a lack of interest in activities that would ordinarily be appealing. This loss of interest is commonly referred to as anhedonia.

However, beyond a loss of interest, anhedonia is also related to a disruption in the mind’s reward process. The usual anticipation, motivation, and decision-making stages involved in the reward system are greatly affected. This change has been linked to dysfunctions in the dopamine system.

Decreased levels of dopamine have been known to form the basis of the symptoms associated with major depressive disorders.18

 What Is the Chemistry Behind Depression?

Schizophrenia

This disorder is linked with an abnormal interpretation of reality. Schizophrenia is a severe mental health condition that can affect a person’s ability to think, act, or express themselves.

Typically diagnosable by symptoms like hallucinations, delusions, and abnormal physical gaits, these signs may also be attributed to an imbalance of dopamine in the body.

Lower levels of dopamine have been linked to other signs such as anhedonia, an inability to complete tasks, and demotivation to engage in social interactions.19

Parkinson’s Disease

Parkinson’s is a disorder of the nervous system. It is identifiable by tremors which may begin as barely noticeable, before progressing into obvious quivers, muscle stiffness, or delayed movement. This disorder may also cause problems with balance during motion.

Parkinson’s disease is the result of a number of factors, one of which is a reduction in the production of dopamine in the brain. When there is a dopamine deficit, this can cause the distinct movement difficulties associated with this condition.20

How to Treat Low Dopamine Levels

Low dopamine levels can produce negative reactions throughout the body. To prevent and remedy this deficiency, the following methods can prove useful.

Exercise

Working up a sweat by running, swimming, dancing, or other forms of movement, can help with increasing dopamine levels in the body. Studies carried out on animals have shown that certain portions of the brain are flushed with dopamine during physical activity. It is why exercising may sometimes produce a high.21

Natural Sources 

Your body’s supply of dopamine may be supported by external sources. Natural sources such as bananas, plantain, and avocado have been found to contain high levels of dopamine. Apples, eggplant, spinach, and tomatoes have also been recognized as dopamine sources. Proteins are also notable components in the dopamine production process.22

Probiotics 

Probiotics may get more notice for promoting gut health, but this bacteria is not only an important part of the body’s microbiome, it may also be useful for the production of dopamine and other neurotransmitters.23

 Could Probiotics Be a Good Mood Food?

Music 

It’s not 100% certain how music affects the brain, but there’s a reason why certain songs give you chills, make you mellow, and very notably, have the power to invigorate you while listening.

The last potential may be due to the ability of music to stimulate dopamine production in the brain. This leaves you with feelings of pleasure and excitement when listening to music, and can help to increase dwindling dopamine levels.24

A Word From Verywell

In the right amount, dopamine can give you feelings of pleasure, excitement and motivation when carrying out activities. Things start to go south, however, when the  body runs low on this neurotransmitter. This can happen because of a genetic predisposition, obesity, stress, and other causes.

When this happens, it isn’t uncommon for you to experience persistent tiredness, constipation, poor moods, sleep disorders, and other negative reactions.

Thankfully, the body’s dopamine levels can be increased using the right diet that consists of fruits like banana, probiotics, as well as protein. You can also get your dopamine fix by listening to music and routinely engaging in exercise.

By Elizabeth Plumptre 

 https://www.verywellmind.com/common-symptoms-of-low-dopamine-5120239

Topley’s Top 10 – September 30, 2022

1. Is Netflix a Value Stock?

From my friends at Kailash Research https://kailashconcepts.com/

1.Despite the -65% decline, Netflix is still larger than 93% of all other large-cap stocks
2.So, post a -60% wipeout, Netflix is still more expensive than 82% of all US large-cap stocks.
NFLX -75% Correction top to bottom

2. Correlation Nasdaq and Bitcoin .71

From Nasdaq Dorsey Wright

www.dorseywright.com

3. U.S. Credit Spreads Have Not Spiked Yet

@DTAPCAP Dan Tapiero

https://twitter.com/DTAPCAP

4. High Grade Bonds Suffered 3rd Biggest Weekly Outflow Ever

@lisaabramowicz1

https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1

5. Preferred Stock ETF..Long-Term Chart

PFF ETF hit $20 during Covid and single digits during 2008 crisis

www.stockcharts.com

6. History of S&P 500 During Fed Rate Hike Cycles

Dan Petersen, CMT, CAIAIndexIQ ETF Product Manager

https://www.linkedin.com/in/danpeterseniiq/

7. Small Cap Value Holding Above 200 Week Moving Average.

VBR Vanguard Small Cap Value another chart right at 200 week moving average

www.stockcharts.com

8. How Much Home Can You Buy for $2500 Per Month?

One Year Ago $758,000 vs. Now $476,000 @M_McDonough

Michael McDonough https://twitter.com/M_McDonough

9. For China’s Auto Market, Electric Isn’t the Future. It’s the Present.

More electric cars will be sold in the country this year than in the rest of the world combined, as its domestic market accelerates ahead of the global competition.

BYD, China’s largest electric vehicle maker, displayed cars at an auto show in Wuhan, China, in July.Credit…Getty Images

By Daisuke Wakabayashi and Claire Fu

Zhang Youping, a Chinese retiree, purchased an all-electric, small sport utility vehicle from BYD — China’s largest electric vehicle maker — at an auto show for around $20,000 last month. Her family has bought three gas-powered cars in the last decade, but she recently grew concerned about gas prices and decided to go electric “to save money.” A few months earlier, her son had also bought an E.V. It was a $10,000 hatchback from Leapmotor, another Chinese manufacturer.

This year, a quarter of all new cars purchased in China will be an all-electric vehicle or a plug-in hybrid. By some estimates, more than 300 Chinese companies are making E.V.s, ranging from discount offerings below $5,000 to high-end models that rival Tesla and German automakers. There are roughly four million charging units in the country, double the number from a year ago, with more coming.

While other E.V. markets are still heavily dependent on subsidies and financial incentives, China has entered a new phase: Consumers are weighing the features and prices of electric vehicles against gas-powered cars without much consideration of state support. The United States is far behind. This year, the country passed a key threshold of E.V.s accounting for 5 percent of new car sales. China passed that level in 2018.

It took China more than a decade of subsidies, long-term investments and infrastructure spending to lay the foundation for its electric vehicle market to start standing on its own. Tu Le, a managing director of the Beijing-based consultancy Sino Auto Insights, said competition and dynamism were now driving the Chinese market, not government subsidies.“We have reached a point in China where we’re competing on price. We’re competing on features. So it’s not a subsidy thing,” Mr. Le said. “The market is taking over.”

For China’s Auto Market, Electric Isn’t the Future. It’s the Present. – The New York Times (nytimes.com)

10. 5 Keys to Simplify Decision-Making

Few wish they’d spent more of their lives analyzing what to order for dinner. Jill P. Weber Ph.D.

KEY POINTS

  • The day-to-day that most experience can easily become a mental overload.
  • The myriad of choices and searches available leave many feeling stuck, leaving some to give up on making a call completely.
  • Some second guess their decisions or berate themselves for their choices long after decisions have been made.
  • Simplifying the decision-making process brings on clarity and peace of mind.

Do you find yourself bogged down by decisions, even simple, everyday ones? Do you find yourself consulting with others, scouring the internet, and working to turn over every possibility before making a decision? And do you find, at times, you are paralyzed by the options to such an extent that you punt the decision and end up not making one at all?

The goings-on of day-to-day life that most experience can easily become a mental overload. Even the mundane can bog us down. For me, living in the D.C. area and considering my options for tonight’s take-out is kind of an over-stimulating experience. On the surface, having options feels like freedom and progress. On a deeper level, it can feel so entirely overwhelming that making a move in any direction is impossible. And then for some others, they make their decisions but internally berate themselves by wondering if they made the right decision, or by continuing to research other paths they might have taken.

Decisions—from the serious to the routine—can make many feel they have a perpetual death grip on the steering wheel of life. Interestingly, we seem to do better with the big ones, like finding a surgeon, for example. It’s the small, everyday decisions that can really bog people down.

Consider the time you spend in your head thinking about what to do or rethinking what you should have done differently. If you take a moment to sit with how you feel when this is happening, it may become blazingly obvious to you that time spent in decision-making mode is not necessarily supporting your psyche and peace of mind. How many people on their death beds think, “Wow, I wish I would have spent more of my time researching my decisions.” There’s a way out of this rabbit hole, one that can bring you peace and presence.

Here are five steps to making decisions less painful, adapted from my recently released book, Overcoming Stressed Induced Brain Fog:

  1. There’s No Absolute “Right” Decision: We’re taught that careful thought and intellectualizing all of life’s ills will protect us from pain and suffering. Unfortunately, this is a myth. All of the thinking, second-guessing, and planning in the world will not make you immune from life’s vagaries. When you’re obsessing about your next decision, gently remind yourself that whichever way you go will likely not impact your life in an enduring sense. Spending time finding peace, learning what brings you meaning, and connecting with others, however, will impact your long-term well-being.
  2. Cut Yourself Off: The vastness of the internet is anxiety-producing for many. It can feel that if you search enough, you’ll come to the end of the rainbow and all will be right in the world. Of course, your experience has likely already taught you that the internet has no end. The best way to stop this endless search for the ‘right’ decision is to literally set a timer on your watch when you’re doing “research.” Also, add talking to others into your decision process. Directly communicating with real-life people, in person, helps us find what’s right for us versus finding perfect.
  3. Good Enough: As much as you want things to be amazing and perfect, consider the stress this brings. Even when you’re able to achieve some version of perfection then you have to spend time and energy maintaining it. There is much to be said for things simply being…good enough. Sure, maybe everything is not glamorous and exactly right, but you will have a life where you haven’t squandered all of your time and resources trying to get it exactly right. Good enough leaves space for internal peace, connection, and meaning.
  4. Make A Decision: More than making a wrong or bad decision, not making a decision at all brings on brain fog. You aren’t able to move forward in any direction and your brain is full of random contingency analyses that never get resolved. Just do it. Call an end to the back-and-forth and make a decision. You will feel the peace it brings.
  5. Don’t Look Back: Once you’ve decided, embrace your decision. Shut down all of those mental and literal tabs in your mind and on your browser. You can cope if you find, along the way, the decision you made doesn’t bring you peace, or you realize it really is causing more harm than good. Regroup and change course without self-flagellating.