Topley’s Top 10 Tuesday – January 16, 2024

1. Tesla Close Back Below 200-Day…-$50 since late December

2. COIN Made High of $186 Heading into Bitcoin ETF Announcement …$131 Last.

3. Airline ETF

Airline ETF reversed at 200-week moving average.

4. These Companies Raised Dividends 60 Years in a Row.

Barrons Dividend Kings By Andrew Bary These 15 companies have raised their annual payouts for 60 years or more.

5. Bullish Consensus at 2018 Levels.

@Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm)Bullish Consensus:  The aptly named Consensus Inc conducts weekly surveys of futures market newsletters/brokerage reports and aggregates the percentage that is bullish. At this point their stock index series is the most bullish since 2018.

Source:  @biancoresearch

6. China Sold 5 Times as Many Cars to Russia Last Year Compared to 2022

WSJ While China has become acknowledged as a world leader in electric vehicles, traditional gas-powered autos were the main driver of the increase, with demand surging especially in Russia.  Chinese carmakers seized the void left in the country by the departure of Western carmakers following the war in Ukraine, selling at least five times as many vehicles there last year than the 160,000 it sold in 2022, according to the China Passenger Car Association. By 

Selina Cheng

7. Post-2008 GFC Growth of Forbes 400

8. What Numbers are Deflationary?


9. New York and California make retail theft a 2024 priority: ‘We mean business’


The governors of New York and California are proposing new laws and funding to address retail theft in 2024.

Both governors, who represent the country’s largest Democratic strongholds, want stiffer penalties for retail crime offenses and increased police funding.

The announcements come as voters from both sides of the aisle point to crime as one of their biggest concerns ahead of the 2024 election.

The governors of New York and California announced sweeping plans to crack down on retail crime this week, as trade associations and police departments lobby for government action to curb theft.

The plans include new legislation designed to increase the penalties for retail crime offenses and more funding for police departments and district attorney’s offices to help them tackle theft.

Both Govs. Kathy Hochul of New York and Gavin Newsom of California, who represent the country’s largest Democratic strongholds, made preventing retail theft a top priority this year as voters from both sides of the aisle point to crime as one of their biggest concerns ahead of the 2024 election. The sheer fact that major “tough on crime” platforms are coming from Democratic governors of progressive states also threatens to upend decades of partisan political fault lines. In the modern era, Republicans have traditionally fought to stiffen criminal penalties, while Democrats have sought to address deeper causes of crime, like poverty, inequality and urban unemployment.

But not anymore. Since 2022, at least nine states — including six in 2023 — passed laws to impose harsher penalties for organized retail crime offenses, and New York and California could join that list. Retailers and trade associations around the country have worked to get the bills written and past the finish line.

It’s tough to determine whether theft offenses are up nationally, as it’s a crime that often goes unreported and undetected. It’s also unclear how effective the proposed legislation will be.

Experts previously told CNBC that laws that increase penalties for retail crime offenses may not actually reduce theft offenses, and could disproportionately harm marginalized groups. Similar strategies implemented to address the drug trade have done little to reduce the use or availability of illegal narcotics. Similar to low-level drug dealers, many serial thieves face mental illness, poverty or drug addiction, law enforcement agents previously told CNBC.

Hochul in her State of the State address Tuesday said she is planning to introduce bills that would create criminal penalties for online marketplaces and third-party sellers that contribute to the sale of stolen goods. She also aims to work with the legislature to strengthen penalties for those who assault retail employees.

In addition, Hochul plans to set up two new task forces dedicated to tackling theft – one for building cases against organized retail theft rings and another that addresses so-called smash-and-grab robberies.

As part of the initiatives, Hochul called for expanded funding for state police departments and district attorney’s offices to better equip them to tackle retail theft and other property crimes like burglary. She also wants to establish a tax credit for business owners who implement store security measures to help them offset those costs.

“Across our nation and our state, retail theft has surged, creating fear among customers and workers. Thieves brazenly tear items off shelves and menace employees. Owners go broke replacing broken windows and stolen goods, driving many out of business,” Hochul said in her address.

“These attacks are nothing less than a breakdown in the social order. I say: no more. The chaos must end.”

Newsom said on Wednesday that California will invest $1.1 billion over the next four years to address “safety and security” – $373.5 million of which will be dedicated to combating organized retail theft, according to his office.

In his state budget address, Newsom said 52 sheriff’s and police departments have already received upward of $250 million in new grants to combat retail theft. He added district attorney’s offices are receiving assistance to advance prosecution efforts.

“We mean business in this space,” Newsom said.

Newsom this week also called for new legislation that would address organized retail crime. He wants to target in particular people who are accused of repeatedly stealing from the same stores and “professional thieves” who resell stolen goods.

The proposals include new penalties that target people who engage in retail theft, including by increasing felony penalties and prison time, and bolstering existing laws so police can arrest theft suspects even if they didn’t witness the crime as it was happening.

Newsom is also calling for changes to the state penal code that would allow police to aggregate theft incidents within a given time period so it’s easier to charge repeat offenders with grand theft and other felonies. Currently, someone has to steal more than $950 in goods in a single incident to be charged with grand theft in California.

— CNBC’s Christina Wilkie contributed to this report.



10. Keep Your Surface Area Small.

Farnam Street Blog A different take on what makes us feel so busy, stressed, and anxious.

As a rule, the larger your surface area, the more energy you have to expend maintaining it. Of course, when most of us think of surface area, we think of the area of a rectangle or how much grass we have to mow. But there is a surface area of life, and most of us never realize how much it consumes.

If you have one house, you have a relatively small surface area to maintain (depending on the age and size of the house, of course). If you buy another one, your surface area expands. But it doesn’t expand linearly – it expands slightly above that. It’s all the same work plus more.

Friends are another type of surface area. You have a finite amount of time to spend with friends before you die. The more friends you have, the less time you can spend with each one individually.

Money is another form of surface area. The more money you have, the more you have to keep track of different types of assets and investments.

When your surface area expands too much, you hire people to help you scale. Assistants, property managers, family offices, etc. They’re scaling you – but they’re also scaling the surface area of responsibility. This, of course, only masks the rapidly expanding surface area by abstracting it.

Beliefs are another type of surface area.

The thing about surface area is that the more you have, the more you have to defend and maintain. The larger your surface area, the more you are burdened with mentally and physically.

If you think in terms of surface area, it’s easy to see why we are so anxious, stressed, and constantly behind.

We feel like we need more time, but what we’re craving is more focus. What we need is a smaller surface area.

Your surface area becomes part of your identity. She’s the ‘busy person’ with her hand in every project. He’s the guy with four houses.

Competition can drive expansion. Most people want a bigger house to compete with someone else who has a nicer house. We are animals, after all. On a group level, this causes great benefits. On an individual level, it can cause unhappiness.

Most of the really happy people I know have a relatively small surface area. I know billionaires with two houses. Most of my close friends only have 4-5 close friends – everyone else is a friend in the loose sense of the word. Most of the productive people I know at work are focused on one or two things, not 5.

The way to maximize your enjoyment in life is to keep your surface area small. It’s a lot of work but if the happiest people I know are any indication, it’s a lot less work to keep it small than to maintain it when it’s large.