1. Global Bonds and Stocks Record Drawdown

This year’s pullback outpaces steep declines seen during the 2008-2009 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic, based on the drop in market value of the Bloomberg GlobalAgg Index and the MSCI All-Country World Stocks Index combined.

Perhaps this is not surprising given the tidal wave of cash that flooded into world markets during the easy years. But the pace of this year’s value destruction is still alarming: the $36 trillion shaved off markets in nine months had been amassed over roughly double that time, between mid-2020 and late-2021.

ByJan-Patrick Barnert https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-01/raging-markets-selloff-in-five-charts-36-trillion-and-counting?sref=GGda9y2L

2. Nowhere to Hide…Defensive Utilities Drop a Fast -15%

www.stockcharts.com

3. Nowhere to Hide…Defensive Consumer Staples Drop a Fast -16%

www.stockcharts.com

4. Money Supply is Collapsing.

Zero Hedge Collapse In Money Supply Is Still A Major Risk For The Market BY TYLER DURDEN Via SchiffGold.com, Money Supply growth was barely positive in August at $2B and sits well below the $233B seen last year. As the chart below shows, Money Supply growth has collapsed since February. Last year started with five straight months above $200B, whereas 2022 has only seen one month above $100B and that was January.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/collapse-money-supply-still-major-risk-market

Investopedia–What Happens When the Federal Reserve Limits the Money Supply? A country’s money supply has a significant effect on a country’s macroeconomic profile, particularly in relation to interest rates, inflation, and the business cycle. In America, the Federal Reserve determines the level of monetary supply.2 When the Fed limits the money supply via contractionary or hawkish monetary policy, interest rates rise and the cost of borrowing increases. This can dampen inflationary pressures, but also risk slowing down economic growth.

5. Retail Investors Buying More Puts than Calls…Contra Indicator

Retail investors’ put options have now exceeded calls, as they did in early 2020.

Source: Vanda Research

https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-september-30th-2022/

6. Put/Call Ratio Hitting Lows of 2018 and 2020

-Past signal of short-term rally. JC at All-Star Charts You can see it in the Put/Call Ratio hitting levels last seen at the 2018 and 2020 market lows:

https://allstarcharts.com/the-bulls-have-left-the-building/ From Abnormal Returns Blog www.abnormalreturns.com

7. A Few Slides on the American Demographic Dilemma….Growth of U.S. Working Age Population Shrinking then Negative in 2021

John Burns Real Estate

https://www.linkedin.com/in/johnburns7/

8. Prime-Age Working Males Ugly Chart

Demographic-Drought.pdf

9. Women Surpassed Men in College….Now Women Overtake Men in White Collar Workforce

Women now outnumber men in the U.S. college-educated labor force BY RICHARD FRY Women have overtaken men and now account for more than half (50.7%) of the college-educated labor force in the United States, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of government data. The change occurred in the fourth quarter of 2019 and remains the case today, even though the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a sharp recession and an overall decline in the size of the nation’s labor force.

Women now represent a majority of the college-educated labor force in the U.S. | Pew Research Center

10. The Most Common Symptoms of Low Dopamine

Elizabeth Plumptre

Dopamine is a neurotransmitter, or chemical, that plays the important role of sending signals from the brain to the body. It is produced naturally in different key sections of the brain and is important for functions such as motor skills, cognitive abilities, and reproduction.

This neurotransmitter spikes in anticipation of something important which is about to happen, plays key roles in the body’s reward and motivation system, and also affects memory.

Dopamine performs these important functions despite making up only a small percentage—less than 1% —of the brain’s neurons.¹ In the right amount, this neurotransmitter is crucial for brain function, but when this amount is lowered beyond a prescribed point, it can just as equally have an unintended consequence on the body. Dopamine deficiency has been linked to neurodegenerative conditions in the body.

To understand the effects of low dopamine, we’ll first examine the signs and causes of this condition. Then, we’ll learn about the conditions most commonly linked to dopamine deficiency for a keener understanding of its effects. Finally, we’ll share the ways you can maintain your body’s production of this important neurotransmitter.

What Is Dopamine?

Symptoms of Low Dopamine

With links to conditions like schizophrenia and Parkinson’s disease, dopamine deficiency can exhibit similar traits with these conditions. These traits include:

Chronic back pain²
Persistent constipation³
Weight fluctuations⁴
Dysphagia or difficulty swallowing⁵
Sleep disorders⁶
Fatigue⁷
Attention difficulties⁸
Reduced sex drive⁹
Hallucinations and delusions¹⁰
Aspiration pneumonia¹¹
Low moods¹²

Causes of Low Dopamine

A number of factors may be responsible for reduced dopamine in the body. These include sleep deprivation, obesity, drug abuse, saturated fat, and stress. Here’s a closer look at each.

Sleep Deprivation

Besides your morning coffee, dopamine is one of the reasons you feel refreshed and alert most mornings. This wakefulness is promoted by dopamine receptors, in particular the D2 receptor. These receptors help to mediate the functions of dopamine in the body.

However, sleep deprivation can reduce the number of D2 receptors in important parts of the brain. Where this happens, the transmission and production of dopamine is impacted.

In fact, with a condition like Parkinson’s disease which sustains low dopamine levels, most people feel excessive daytime sleepiness.¹³

Obesity

Obesity has been linked to a number of health conditions, but one less known effect is the role it plays in downregulating or reducing the amount of dopamine in the brain.

Like the results of sleep deprivation, obesity can lead to a reduction in D2 receptors in the brain.¹⁴ This becomes especially obvious when comparisons are made with the number of receptors in people who are not obese.¹⁵

Drug Abuse

During early usage, certain drugs may contribute to an increase in dopamine. Cocaine is one drug that has been known to produce euphoria and increased dopamine levels following usage.

However, long-term use of these drugs is certain to offer diminishing returns, especially where dopamine production is concerned.

Because of the sustained increase in dopamine production following drug use, the brain intervenes to reduce the number of dopamine receptors available.¹⁶

Saturated Fat

When you have fried chicken, buttered bread, chocolate, and other foods high in saturated fats, your brain understandably lights up with dopamine at all the pleasure you’re receiving from these foods.

However, while these foods only produce short-term enjoyment. Over time, persistently observing a high-fat diet disrupts central nervous system functioning, where dopamine is produced. When it is disrupted, this can lead to a dopamine deficit.¹⁷

Stress

There are very few things stress is good for, and maintaining optimal dopamine levels isn’t one of them. When you are constantly exposed to stressors like financial difficulty, relationship troubles, workplace stress, and more, this can affect your body’s production of dopamine. Over time, this may also lead to a deficiency of the neurotransmitter in the body.

Conditions Linked With Dopamine Deficiency

Major Depressive Disorder

Major depressive disorder is one of the most severe mental and behavioral disorders. It is characterized by prolonged depressive moods, or a lack of interest in activities that would ordinarily be appealing. This loss of interest is commonly referred to as anhedonia.

However, beyond a loss of interest, anhedonia is also related to a disruption in the mind’s reward process. The usual anticipation, motivation, and decision-making stages involved in the reward system are greatly affected. This change has been linked to dysfunctions in the dopamine system.

Decreased levels of dopamine have been known to form the basis of the symptoms associated with major depressive disorders.¹⁸

What Is the Chemistry Behind Depression?

Schizophrenia

This disorder is linked with an abnormal interpretation of reality. Schizophrenia is a severe mental health condition that can affect a person’s ability to think, act, or express themselves.

Typically diagnosable by symptoms like hallucinations, delusions, and abnormal physical gaits, these signs may also be attributed to an imbalance of dopamine in the body.

Lower levels of dopamine have been linked to other signs such as anhedonia, an inability to complete tasks, and demotivation to engage in social interactions.¹⁹

Parkinson’s Disease

Parkinson’s is a disorder of the nervous system. It is identifiable by tremors which may begin as barely noticeable, before progressing into obvious quivers, muscle stiffness, or delayed movement. This disorder may also cause problems with balance during motion.

Parkinson’s disease is the result of a number of factors, one of which is a reduction in the production of dopamine in the brain. When there is a dopamine deficit, this can cause the distinct movement difficulties associated with this condition.²⁰

How to Treat Low Dopamine Levels

Low dopamine levels can produce negative reactions throughout the body. To prevent and remedy this deficiency, the following methods can prove useful.

Exercise

Working up a sweat by running, swimming, dancing, or other forms of movement, can help with increasing dopamine levels in the body. Studies carried out on animals have shown that certain portions of the brain are flushed with dopamine during physical activity. It is why exercising may sometimes produce a high.²¹

Natural Sources

Your body’s supply of dopamine may be supported by external sources. Natural sources such as bananas, plantain, and avocado have been found to contain high levels of dopamine. Apples, eggplant, spinach, and tomatoes have also been recognized as dopamine sources. Proteins are also notable components in the dopamine production process.²²

Probiotics

Probiotics may get more notice for promoting gut health, but this bacteria is not only an important part of the body’s microbiome, it may also be useful for the production of dopamine and other neurotransmitters.²³

Could Probiotics Be a Good Mood Food?

Music

It’s not 100% certain how music affects the brain, but there’s a reason why certain songs give you chills, make you mellow, and very notably, have the power to invigorate you while listening.

The last potential may be due to the ability of music to stimulate dopamine production in the brain. This leaves you with feelings of pleasure and excitement when listening to music, and can help to increase dwindling dopamine levels.²⁴

A Word From Verywell

In the right amount, dopamine can give you feelings of pleasure, excitement and motivation when carrying out activities. Things start to go south, however, when the body runs low on this neurotransmitter. This can happen because of a genetic predisposition, obesity, stress, and other causes.

When this happens, it isn’t uncommon for you to experience persistent tiredness, constipation, poor moods, sleep disorders, and other negative reactions.

Thankfully, the body’s dopamine levels can be increased using the right diet that consists of fruits like banana, probiotics, as well as protein. You can also get your dopamine fix by listening to music and routinely engaging in exercise.

By Elizabeth Plumptre

https://www.verywellmind.com/common-symptoms-of-low-dopamine-5120239

Topley’s Top 10 – September 30, 2022

September 30, 2022

Matt Topley

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. Is Netflix a Value Stock?

From my friends at Kailash Research https://kailashconcepts.com/

1.Despite the -65% decline, Netflix is still larger than 93% of all other large-cap stocks
2.So, post a -60% wipeout, Netflix is still more expensive than 82% of all US large-cap stocks.
NFLX -75% Correction top to bottom

2. Correlation Nasdaq and Bitcoin .71

From Nasdaq Dorsey Wright

www.dorseywright.com

3. U.S. Credit Spreads Have Not Spiked Yet

@DTAPCAP Dan Tapiero

https://twitter.com/DTAPCAP

4. High Grade Bonds Suffered 3rd Biggest Weekly Outflow Ever

@lisaabramowicz1

https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1

5. Preferred Stock ETF..Long-Term Chart

PFF ETF hit $20 during Covid and single digits during 2008 crisis

www.stockcharts.com

6. History of S&P 500 During Fed Rate Hike Cycles

Dan Petersen, CMT, CAIAIndexIQ ETF Product Manager

https://www.linkedin.com/in/danpeterseniiq/

7. Small Cap Value Holding Above 200 Week Moving Average.

VBR Vanguard Small Cap Value another chart right at 200 week moving average

www.stockcharts.com

8. How Much Home Can You Buy for $2500 Per Month?

One Year Ago $758,000 vs. Now $476,000 @M_McDonough

Michael McDonough https://twitter.com/M_McDonough

9. For China’s Auto Market, Electric Isn’t the Future. It’s the Present.

More electric cars will be sold in the country this year than in the rest of the world combined, as its domestic market accelerates ahead of the global competition.

BYD, China’s largest electric vehicle maker, displayed cars at an auto show in Wuhan, China, in July.Credit…Getty Images

By Daisuke Wakabayashi and Claire Fu

Zhang Youping, a Chinese retiree, purchased an all-electric, small sport utility vehicle from BYD — China’s largest electric vehicle maker — at an auto show for around $20,000 last month. Her family has bought three gas-powered cars in the last decade, but she recently grew concerned about gas prices and decided to go electric “to save money.” A few months earlier, her son had also bought an E.V. It was a $10,000 hatchback from Leapmotor, another Chinese manufacturer.

This year, a quarter of all new cars purchased in China will be an all-electric vehicle or a plug-in hybrid. By some estimates, more than 300 Chinese companies are making E.V.s, ranging from discount offerings below $5,000 to high-end models that rival Tesla and German automakers. There are roughly four million charging units in the country, double the number from a year ago, with more coming.

While other E.V. markets are still heavily dependent on subsidies and financial incentives, China has entered a new phase: Consumers are weighing the features and prices of electric vehicles against gas-powered cars without much consideration of state support. The United States is far behind. This year, the country passed a key threshold of E.V.s accounting for 5 percent of new car sales. China passed that level in 2018.

It took China more than a decade of subsidies, long-term investments and infrastructure spending to lay the foundation for its electric vehicle market to start standing on its own. Tu Le, a managing director of the Beijing-based consultancy Sino Auto Insights, said competition and dynamism were now driving the Chinese market, not government subsidies.“We have reached a point in China where we’re competing on price. We’re competing on features. So it’s not a subsidy thing,” Mr. Le said. “The market is taking over.”

For China’s Auto Market, Electric Isn’t the Future. It’s the Present. – The New York Times (nytimes.com)

10. 5 Keys to Simplify Decision-Making

Few wish they’d spent more of their lives analyzing what to order for dinner. Jill P. Weber Ph.D.

KEY POINTS

The day-to-day that most experience can easily become a mental overload.
The myriad of choices and searches available leave many feeling stuck, leaving some to give up on making a call completely.
Some second guess their decisions or berate themselves for their choices long after decisions have been made.
Simplifying the decision-making process brings on clarity and peace of mind.

Do you find yourself bogged down by decisions, even simple, everyday ones? Do you find yourself consulting with others, scouring the internet, and working to turn over every possibility before making a decision? And do you find, at times, you are paralyzed by the options to such an extent that you punt the decision and end up not making one at all?

The goings-on of day-to-day life that most experience can easily become a mental overload. Even the mundane can bog us down. For me, living in the D.C. area and considering my options for tonight’s take-out is kind of an over-stimulating experience. On the surface, having options feels like freedom and progress. On a deeper level, it can feel so entirely overwhelming that making a move in any direction is impossible. And then for some others, they make their decisions but internally berate themselves by wondering if they made the right decision, or by continuing to research other paths they might have taken.

Decisions—from the serious to the routine—can make many feel they have a perpetual death grip on the steering wheel of life. Interestingly, we seem to do better with the big ones, like finding a surgeon, for example. It’s the small, everyday decisions that can really bog people down.

Consider the time you spend in your head thinking about what to do or rethinking what you should have done differently. If you take a moment to sit with how you feel when this is happening, it may become blazingly obvious to you that time spent in decision-making mode is not necessarily supporting your psyche and peace of mind. How many people on their death beds think, “Wow, I wish I would have spent more of my time researching my decisions.” There’s a way out of this rabbit hole, one that can bring you peace and presence.

Here are five steps to making decisions less painful, adapted from my recently released book, Overcoming Stressed Induced Brain Fog:

There’s No Absolute “Right” Decision: We’re taught that careful thought and intellectualizing all of life’s ills will protect us from pain and suffering. Unfortunately, this is a myth. All of the thinking, second-guessing, and planning in the world will not make you immune from life’s vagaries. When you’re obsessing about your next decision, gently remind yourself that whichever way you go will likely not impact your life in an enduring sense. Spending time finding peace, learning what brings you meaning, and connecting with others, however, will impact your long-term well-being.
Cut Yourself Off: The vastness of the internet is anxiety-producing for many. It can feel that if you search enough, you’ll come to the end of the rainbow and all will be right in the world. Of course, your experience has likely already taught you that the internet has no end. The best way to stop this endless search for the ‘right’ decision is to literally set a timer on your watch when you’re doing “research.” Also, add talking to others into your decision process. Directly communicating with real-life people, in person, helps us find what’s right for us versus finding perfect.
Good Enough: As much as you want things to be amazing and perfect, consider the stress this brings. Even when you’re able to achieve some version of perfection then you have to spend time and energy maintaining it. There is much to be said for things simply being…good enough. Sure, maybe everything is not glamorous and exactly right, but you will have a life where you haven’t squandered all of your time and resources trying to get it exactly right. Good enough leaves space for internal peace, connection, and meaning.
Make A Decision: More than making a wrong or bad decision, not making a decision at all brings on brain fog. You aren’t able to move forward in any direction and your brain is full of random contingency analyses that never get resolved. Just do it. Call an end to the back-and-forth and make a decision. You will feel the peace it brings.
Don’t Look Back: Once you’ve decided, embrace your decision. Shut down all of those mental and literal tabs in your mind and on your browser. You can cope if you find, along the way, the decision you made doesn’t bring you peace, or you realize it really is causing more harm than good. Regroup and change course without self-flagellating.

Topley’s Top 10 – September 29, 2022

September 29, 2022

Matt Topley

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. S&P Approaching Giving Back 2 Years of Gains.

www.yahoofinance.com

2. Zero Coupon Bond Down Close to -50%

3. Another Bond Chart….Muni ETF

50 week going thru 200 week to downside….Munis break to new lows.

www.stockcharts.com

4. Oil Prices Officially Below Ukraine Invasion Numbers.

LPL Research

https://i0.wp.com/lplresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/chart-12.png?ssl=1

5. China Currency Drawdown Thru Covid Lows

https://dailyshotbrief.com/

6. Chinese Internet Stocks Not Breaking New Lows Yet.

KWEB forming base since March….-75% from Highs

7. Stock/Bond Drawdown $57.8 Trillion

@DTAPCAP DTAP Capital

https://twitter.com/DTAPCAP

8. Consumer Related Commodity Pullback

Carl Quintanilla

@carlquintanilla

https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla

9. Pace of Rent Increases Continues to Slow…Rents Huge for Inflation Numbers

Higher Rents will continue to impact measures of inflation in 2022CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride

Another monthly update on rents. First, from ApartmentList.com: Apartment List National Rent Report

Welcome to the October 2022 Apartment List National Rent Report. Our national index fell by 0.2 percent over the course of September, marking the first time this year that the national median rent has declined month-over-month. The timing of this slight dip in rents is consistent with a seasonal trend that was typical in pre-pandemic years. Assuming that trend continues, it is likely that rents will continue falling in the coming months as we enter the winter slow season for the rental market. … Year-over-year growth is continuing to decelerate, and now stands at 7.5 percent, down from a peak of nearly 18 percent at the beginning of the year.

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/pace-of-rent-increases-continues-601 Found at Abnormal Returns Blog www.abnormalreturns.com

10. Korn Ferry’s CEO says the best résumé he’s ever seen nailed these 6 key elements

Gary Burnison, the CEO of Korn Ferry. Anne Cusack/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

Gary Burnison is the CEO of the management-consultancy firm Korn Ferry.
He’s spent the past 20 years recruiting candidates for the LA-based company.
He told CNBC the six keys to one of the best résumés he’s seen in his time at the firm.

Get a daily selection of our top stories based on your reading preferences.

A Roblox creator earns up to $90,000 a month selling virtual items like $0.94 stud earrings and $1.24 fur hood…

This is an edited, translated version of an article that originally appeared on September 16, 2022.

Gary Burnison is the CEO of the management-consultancy firm Korn Ferry. He’s been interviewing and hiring candidates for the company for 20 years.

Writing for CNBC Make It, he said that despite being tough to impress when it comes to résumés, one, in particular, has stuck in his mind to this day.

Burnison shared the six key things that made this résumé stand out as one of the best he’d ever read.

1. A strong narrative

The résumé offered a clearly defined, chronological path through the candidate’s career history, Burnison told CNBC.

Burnison said a good résumé should start with the most recent professional experience and work backward from there. The résumé should show progression in terms of the candidate’s responsibilities and not have any career gaps, he added.

2. Well-presented

Burnison said that the résumé was two pages long and well-organized.

“Line spacing was just right, company names in bold, titles italicized, and job details arranged in bullet points,” he said.

He added that he likes candidates to use a simple, clear font.

3. No clichés

Burnison also said that the best résumés avoid clichés and use action verbs instead.

He said including vague terms like “excellent communicator,” “team player,” “creative,” or “hard-working” could quickly put off recruiters.

As an example, Burnison said: “Instead of ‘excellent communicator,’ say ‘presented at face-to-face client meetings and spoke at college recruiting events.”‘

4. It highlighted achievements

Another integral reason this résumé stood out was that it provided examples of the candidate’s achievements, as well as the duties they had to carry out in their previous roles, Burnison said.

Burnison said that hiring managers want to see evidence that candidates have delivered “quantifiable” results and why they’re better than the average applicant.

He said one way to do that is by highlighting your responsibilities through your best achievements.

Burnison shared an example of what this could look like for a candidate: “Instead of ‘led marketing and sales team,’ say ‘supervised marketing and sales team and achieved 15% annual growth vs. 0.5% budget.”‘

5. It was open and honest

The candidate provided a link to a portfolio of their work and their LinkedIn page. Burnision said this left a positive impression as he could easily double-check any claims made in the résumé, which added to the candidate’s credibility.

Burnison said that honesty is crucial to success, as a reference check will end your chances if you’ve lied about anything.

6. It came with a referral

The candidate included a referral from a colleague from Burnison’s firm. The CEO shared that this is “the most effective way to get an employer’s attention.”

While this isn’t possible for everyone, even those who don’t have a contact at the company should still try and find a way of making an informal introduction to a current employee.

This can just be something simple like meeting an employee for coffee, he continued, adding that once you’ve formed a relationship with someone within the firm, you can start inquiring about job opportunities.

https://www.businessinsider.com/6-keys-best-resume-management-consultancy-recruiter-korn-ferry-2022-9

Topley’s Top 10 – September 28, 2022

September 28, 2022

Matt Topley

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. 2022 Historical Event…Bonds Down More Than Stocks.

Michael Gayed Below are the top 20 largest peak to trough drawdowns for the S&P 500 going back to 1961. Never, IN HISTORY, in an EXTREME drawdown for stocks, have Treasuries, THE risk-off asset, GONE DOWN MORE THAN STOCKS.

(23) Michael A. Gayed, CFA on Twitter: “Below are the top 20 largest peak to trough drawdowns for the S&P 500 going back to 1961. Never, IN HISTORY, in an EXTREME drawdown for stocks, have Treasuries, THE risk-off asset, GONE DOWN MORE THAN STOCKS. WAKE. THE. FUCK. UP. $TLT $SPY https://t.co/MKlas14qv4” / Twitter2.

2. 30 Year Treasury -30% from Highs

30 year treasury ETF …oversold short-term

First time American investors experiencing a “short-term safe bond fund” chart that looks like BSV

www.stockcharts.com

3. Hockey Stick Spike in Put Option Hedging

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading–You can practically smell the fear. Single stock put premium has been surging to record levels! (FT via the Twits)

4. U.S. is Facing Shortest Lead Time Ever Between Inverted Yield Curve and Recession

@Charlie Bilello Back then, the expansion peaked in March 2001. Today, many believe we are already in a recession.

If that’s the case, it would be the shortest lead time we’ve seen from the inverted yield curve signal.

5. Amazon Market Cap in S&P Almost Cut in Half

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathanbaird88/

6. FANG Stock ETF Closes Below 200 Week Moving Average.

7. S&P Retail Index Closes Below 200 Week Moving Average

8. China vs. India…Straight Down

This chart shows China ETF vs. India ETF….China straight pattern down vs. India starting in 2021

www.stockcharts.com

9. New fully self-driving Volkswagen allows you to work, eat and SLEEP

Cody Carlson VOLKSWAGEN has shown us the future of transport with its fully self-driving GEN.TRAVEL vehicle.

The all-electric GEN.TRAVEL car operates at the highest self-driving level and acts as an alternative to short-haul flights.

Rearview image showcasing Volkswagen’s GEN.TRAVEL vehicleCredit: Volkswagen AG

The Society of Automotive Engineers [SAE] formed a ranking system for self-driving car automation in 2014.

These autonomous (or self-driving) rankings are leveled from 0 to 5, with level 5 being the highest.

Volkswagen’s GEN.TRAVEL vehicle has level 5 autonomy, meaning it can travel through bad weather and isn’t limited to specific geographical locations, according to the manufacturer.

GEN.TRAVEL’s interior is customizable for each journey, offering configurations for working, eating, and sleeping.

The fully self-driving vehicle’s work setup includes a conference layout with four seats and a large center table where passengers can work and eat.

Illuminating GEN.TRAVEL’S work environment is dynamic lighting that helps passengers avoid motion sickness.

GEN.TRAVEL riders looking to catch some rest can convert the four chairs into two flat-lying beds.

The dynamic lighting within this Volkswagen also induces passenger melatonin release to promote better rest.

https://www.the-sun.com/motors/6303145/fully-self-driving-volkswagen-sleep/

10. The Science of Weekend Recovery

Finding your own best way to recover from the work week—and go back stronger. Jeffrey Davis M.A.

KEY POINTS

Many Americans are spending weekends and holidays working, leading to negative work-related stress.
Unwinding on the weekend is important, but how we choose to unwind is equally important.
The right form of recovery for you depends on the nature of your work.

Does it feel like it’s more difficult to disengage from work these days? If so, you’re not alone. According to the latest American Time Use Survey, one in five American workers spends an average of 5.94 hours working on weekends and holidays.

Working on the weekends is the message society tells us about how to get ahead. A Google search of what entrepreneurs do on weekends returns cheerful articles filled with advice to unwind and relax—yet Quora and Reddit forums asking the same question reveal what entrepreneurs actually do: work on their businesses.

Is it any wonder that the American Psychological Association’s 2021 Work and Well-being Survey found three in five workers are experiencing negative work-related stress?

It’s time to reclaim our weekends.

Recent Research on Weekend Recovery

Earlier this year I wrote about setting goals for a life worth living outside of work and how, if we want to avoid burnout and improve our resilience, we need to rethink how we refresh ourselves while off the clock.

Since writing that piece, I’ve become curious about a pair of studies that go beyond the fact that relaxation is necessary and ask the question of which type of activity can help us feel the most rejuvenated.

In a 2017 study from San Francisco University, Kevin J. Eschleman and his colleagues found that workers in less-creative jobs (such as cashiers, security guards, and technicians) were more likely to benefit from creative activities outside of work. Workers in creative jobs such as designers and architects, on the other hand, were more refreshed by noncreative pursuits.

A more recent study from the Université Grenoble Alpes in France extended the question to look at not only the activities participants did but also the amount of effort those activities took and the way they made the participant feel (which they call “experiences”; e.g., relaxation, mastery, control).

They found that participants who engaged in activities related to their work experienced lower recovery over the weekend, while those who engaged in social, physical, and creative experiences recovered better. Digging even deeper, they discovered that two specific experiences—psychological detachment from work and relaxation—were more likely to assist with recovery.

I want to highlight this for the one in five of us who are working 5.94 hours on weekends and holidays: the more distinct your nonwork activities are from your work activities, the more recovered you will feel at the end of your weekend.

Complementary Work and Recovery

Given this, how should you be spending your weekends? What you find most restorative will depend on the nature of your work.

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Because so much of my work throughout the week is cerebral and done at a computer, I find that activities that are outdoors and physically engaging are incredibly restorative—even if they’re technically “labor.” A few weekends ago I spent the weekend stacking two cords of wood at our home, then helped a friend spread cedar chips. I ended up sore, but happy and refreshed.

I’ve seen similar stories from clients who have chosen to engage in recreative activities that complement their work.

One client, a tenured law professor, turned to painting to relieve stress, refresh her spirits, and spark her creativity. For several winter months, she awoke early and painted a small watercolor with soil paints. The pursuit opened up new creative avenues for her; she wrote a book to inspire other lawyers.
Another client, a writer, chooses a sewing or woodworking project when she needs a break from wordsmithing. She says it engages her creativity in a different way, engaging the problem-solving and engineering part of her brain and allowing her to come back to her creative writing refreshed.

Whatever the activity, it seems participation is a key factor in how it affects us. A 2014 study followed two cohorts in 10-week classes. One group was given art lessons and actively produced paintings, while the other only viewed and discussed art. The group that produced art saw increased connectivity in the brain’s default mode network, which can improve our ability to be creative and imaginative.

Your Own Best Weekend Recovery

Which activities will help you recover best over the weekend? Start by asking yourself the following questions.

1. What is the mental nature of your work?

Those in noncreative jobs should look for ways to explore their creativity on the weekends, such as taking up a new hobby.

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If you’re in a creative field, try giving your mind a few days to recover while you engage in physical work, or a complementary hobby that lights up other parts of your brain besides what you use in your work.

2. What is the physical nature of your work?

For those of us who spend our days physically sitting at a computer or desk, activities that get our bodies moving can be good recovery. Those who are more active throughout the week might find stillness to be the best thing for them.

Think about your environment. Do you spend most of your work week in an office or in the city? Try an activity that gets you into a natural environment. Do you spend your days in a home office? Try an activity that gets you out into a more social space.

3. What is the social nature of your work?

Changing up who you interact with throughout the week can also make a difference. If most of your work is solo, consider taking a weekend class or going on an outing with friends. If you spend your week in meetings, maybe a solo hike or a morning spent reading are just what you need to unwind.

Whatever activity you choose, I encourage you to experiment with your weekends and vary the pattern of your recovery to learn how you can best show up refreshed on Monday morning.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/tracking-wonder/202209/the-science-weekend-recovery

Topley’s Top 10 – September 27, 2022

September 27, 2022

Matt Topley

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. The Covid Gap in Total Federal Reserve Assets

From Steve Blumenthal CMG

https://www.cmgwealth.com/ri-category/on-my-radar/

2. 1970 Stagflation Stats vs. 2022

LPL Research—Barry Gilbert

https://Iplresearch.com/2022/09/23/lunch-box-stagflation-isnt-your-70s-style-slowdown

3. Marketwatch-Global bonds are in first bear market in 76 years based on two centuries of data, says Deutsche Bank

Vivien Lou Chen

It’s been a terrible year for financial markets and perhaps even more so when you weigh 2022 against more than two centuries of data.

Global bonds are now in their first bear market in 76 years, after having dropped 20% from their peaks, according to Deutsche Bank research dating back to 1786. The last time global bonds fared so poorly was in 1946, the year that the first session of the United Nations was held in London after the end of World War II.

Read: A historic global bond-market crash threatens liquidation of the world’s most crowded trades, says BofA

SOURCE: GFD, DEUTSCHE BANK

Driving much of the brutal selloff in global bonds, which has sent yields soaring across developed markets, is expectations for much higher interest rates as central banks try to combat the highest inflation spell in 40 years. As financial-market players rush to factor in much higher rates, they’ve aggressively sold off government bonds — pushing yields to multiyear highs, particularly in the U.S.

Global government bonds have seen a decade’s worth of positive nominal returns wiped out, so far, based on a rolling 10-year return basis. “By the end of September 2022, this may be the worst rolling 10-year period for U.S. bonds in history,” Deutsche Bank researchers said.

“What makes this current period even worse historically is that we are now seeing deep losses in nominal terms which, for many countries, has never previously happened over a sustained period outside of wars or defaults,” said Deutsche Bank researchers Jim Reid, Henry Allen, Luke Templeman and Adrian Cox.

On Monday, investors and traders continued to sell off Treasurys, lifting the policy-sensitive 2-year yield TMUBMUSD02Y, 4.303% further above its highest levels of almost 15 years. Meanwhile, the rate on 2-year gilts TMBMKGB-02Y, 4.527%, the U.K. counterpart to Treasurys, soared above 4.5% as Bank of England Gov. Andrew Bailey said policy makers will not “hesitate to change interest rates as necessary” to bring inflation down to 2%.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/global-bonds-are-in-first-bear-market-in-76-years-based-on-two-centuries-of-data-says-deutsche-bank-11664210332?cx_testId=22&cx_testVariant=cx_1&cx_artPos=4&mod=home-page-cx#cxrecs_s

4. UK 5 Year Bonds Acting Like Third World Country

@lisaabramowicz1

https://twitter.com/lisaabramwicz1

5. Softbank Closes Below 200 Week Moving Average

Not sure if we should use this as lead/tell for venture capital forward returns….But Softbank approaching -50% from highs.

www.stockcharts.com

6. Coinbase has Surprisingly Not Made New Lows.

COIN holds above Summer lows

www.stockcharts.com

7. Copper -31%…Arguably the commodity to watch as macroeconomic indicator

8. Income Needed to Afford a House 2020 vs. 2022

@WallStreetSilv

https://twitter.com.WallstreetSilv

9. The Disappearance of the American Starter Home.

NY Times–By Emily BadgerThe disappearance of such affordable homes is central to the American housing crisis. The nation has a deepening shortage of housing. But, more specifically, there isn’t enough of this housing: small, no-frills homes that would give a family new to the country or a young couple with student debt a foothold to build equity.

The affordable end of the market has been squeezed from every side. Land costs have risen steeply in booming parts of the country. Construction materials and government fees have become more expensive. And communities nationwide are far more prescriptive today than decades ago about what housing should look like and how big it must be. Some ban vinyl siding. Others require two-car garages. Nearly all make it difficult to build the kind of home that could sell for $200,000 today.

Whatever Happened to the Starter Home? – The New York Times (nytimes.com)

10. 12 Efficiency Secrets of the World’s Busiest People

By Michael Pietrzak | September 20, 2022 | 4

Picture this. On Friday morning you rush to the hospital with a sick child. Your partner is crying and you’re suffering from chronic lack of sleep. You cancel your 11 a.m. consultation with a potential client who’s clearly annoyed.

At 4 p.m. you’re supposed to start a brand-new college teaching job. Luckily the doctor gives the little one the all clear just in time for you to rush home for a quick shower. No time to review your lecture notes. You survive class, but a million tasks wait at home. You can’t get to them because friends have decided to “check-in,” and they’re staying for dinner.

Saturday morning you visit a coffee shop to work on that presentation for your day job. It’s due Monday. You’re about to put on headphones when a stranger strikes up a conversation. He’s your ideal client, so 90 minutes later you say, “Sorry, I have to get going.” Looking at your phone you find three texts that say, “Hey is this meeting happening?”

You missed your virtual team meeting for your side hustle, so you reschedule—that product launch will have to wait. At home you ignore the dishes from Friday’s half-eaten breakfast, open your laptop, and spend seven hours on sales calls. So much for Sunday off, you spend it finishing that presentation. Monday you’re back to the 9-5, and give a surprisingly expert performance. Nobody detects the cloud of chaos swirling around you.

This is life for most side hustlers: simultaneously invigorating and pressure-filled.

Is “having it all” inseparable from chaos? Yes, but no. Some disarray is built into the pursuit, but you can take back control. Here are 12 efficiency secrets for busy people like you who are building a side hustle while juggling a full-time job, a social life, exercise, sleep and 47 other desires.

1. Clarify your purpose.

Clear conviction is an unstoppable force. A clear “why” provides at least 80% of the motivation needed to achieve anything. Unfortunately, clear purpose is rare among side hustlers. Many say, “I’d like another $1,000 a month,” or, “I want to quit my job.” But when the sick kids and bad deals inevitably come to test your grit, “Gee, I’d like more money” will not carry you over the mountain. Success demands a “burning desire,” to paraphrase Napoleon Hill. And the only way to create that fire is to connect with your purpose at an emotional level.

Humans put forward logical explanations for decisions, but our emotions have a not-insignificant effect on our decision-making as well. So take the time to get emotional about your purpose. Write and think about it. Walk in the woods and scream it at the top of your lungs. Once your “why” is lodged in your heart, abundant motivation will tame the chaos.

2. Create a ‘Will Not Do’ list.

The Latin origin of decide, decidere, means “to cut off,” and cutting the nonessential is as important as selecting priorities. Most achievers have no trouble codifying clear goals but then let time-sucking “opportunities” creep into calendars. Be ruthless with your time in order to grow a business while balancing a full-time job and life responsibilities. Essentialism author Greg McKeown calls this “The power of a graceful no.”

Write a list of activities you refuse to do and plaster it on your walls. Start with obvious fluff, like post-work drinks. Then say a teary goodbye to activities that, while important, will not lead to your best life. Ruthlessness here might mean skipping that birthday party or telling your in-laws that Sunday dinner is no longer a tradition. When you mindfully choose the activities you’ll sacrifice, the gods of productivity will fortify you with the courage to say “no” when the time comes.

3. Play offense, not defense.

Billionaire Chris Sacca has a golden touch for investing. He bought early in Twitter, Uber and Instagram. You’ll know him from his tour of duty on ABC’s Shark Tank and his nifty cowboy shirts. The secret to his success? Unlike typical venture capitalists, he left Silicon Valley to get away from the constant stimulation, “just touching base” emails and endless coffee dates. “I was just reacting to everything, rather than actually going out and playing offense,” Sacca says. He moved three hours east to focus only on priorities he set, rather than every shiny opportunity.

You’re forced to play defense when your car breaks down, a client goes bankrupt or your child gets sick. But you can make a conscious decision to put the lion’s share of your focus on priorities that bring you closer to Goal City, and not let others control your time. Be unavailable; that’s playing offense. Yes, this means passing up exciting opportunities, but when you chase two rabbits you lose both.

4. Practice self-care.

The most neglected piece of any productivity plan is your most important asset: YOU. Best-selling author and business strategist Tony Robbins says that 80% of success is determined by your mindset. If the programming between your ears is delivering anxiety, doubt, fear and frustration, no amount of hustle or strategizing will deliver results.

One key to creating an optimal mindset is to invest in self-care: inspiring hikes in the woods, playing your favorite game, an excellent meal, time with close friends; whatever recharges your soul’s battery. You can’t do your best work when your mind and heart are overwhelmed. You wouldn’t constantly run an engine at the redline without oil, but Western culture applauds this same abuse when we inflict it on ourselves. Then we wonder why burnout strikes.

A word of caution: Brushing your teeth, taking your meds and reading self-help books is self-maintenance, not self-care. To accomplish more, prioritize compassionate activities that supercharge your spirit. For many entrepreneurs, this is the missing link in their success plan.

5. Leverage health hacks.

The standard disclaimer applies: this is not medical advice, talk to your doctor before you try any of these current favorites of some of the highest achievers in Silicon Valley.

Bulletproof coffee: Your morning cup mixed with grass-fed butter and MCT oil from coconuts. It provides the fuel your brain needs to function at its peak until lunchtime, leading to the next hack.
Intermittent fasting: Don’t put any food into your stomach for 16 hours in a 24-hour period. Simple. This means lunch at noon, dinner at 6 p.m., and your bulletproof coffee in the morning. Benefits include fat loss, muscle gain and growth of nerve cells in the brain, which unlocks peak performance.
Supplements: Nature provides loads of goodies. Ginkgo biloba may reduce anxiety and stress, and omega-3s can improve sleep and protect you from disease. Find the right cocktail for you.
Cut sugar: It can contribute to—or increase the risk of—disease, potentially suppress or weaken the immune system, impair cognition, and increase stress.
Sauna: Spending time in a sauna may trigger growth hormone production, improve physical endurance and improve cardiovascular health.

Take care of the vehicle that carries you through life and your work output will soar.

6. Play to your strengths.

Stop doing things you’re not great at. Yes, in a startup of one, you’ll need to tackle bookkeeping or mop floors. Essentialism author Greg McKeown calls these obligations the “slowest hiker” because they keep you from your destination. “Even activities that are ‘productive’—like doing research, or emailing… can be obstacles,” he says. They require energy better allocated to your strong suits.

Sure, you’ll feel proud teaching yourself how to code an app over three weekends. But you could outsource that to an expert in Croatia for $300. Sites like Upwork, Fiverr and Freelancer are a side hustler’s best friend.

To be truly efficient, spend maximum time applying your unique abilities. Are you a strong writer? Then delivering blog posts via an email list will be a better marketing strategy than creating video. You’re an amazing photographer? Find your tribe on Instagram and start selling there. Do not mistake activity for efficiency. Play to your strengths and your results will multiply.

6. Be the early bird.

Time is the one shared asset no one can create. Take advantage of the productivity goldmine that is your early morning hours. At the moment we wake, our willpower and creativity are highest and our minds are free from phone notifications, external demands and noise. Rising late forces you to rush to work, skip a healthy breakfast that activates your metabolism, and robs you of the solitude that creates calm and joy.

Tackle your most important work during these golden hours. Productivity master Brian Tracy calls this “eating the frog”—striking your ugliest, most-likely-to-procrastinate-on task off your list first. This doesn’t need to be unpleasant; string enough morning wins together and you’ll crave more, no matter how wart-covered the task.

How do you own your mornings? Author Robin Sharma suggests:

Exercise: Start with 20 minutes to activate healthy brain chemistry.
Reflect: Journal or meditate to create a productive mindset.
Inspire: Read or listen to books in order to lift your spirit.

8. Understand the maker’s vs. manager’s schedule.

In 2009, Paul Graham, co-founder of startup accelerator Y Combinator, wrote an essay entitled, Maker’s Schedule, Manager’s Schedule. Read it, and you’ll have a lightbulb moment about work rhythms. The Manager’s schedule is comprised of one-hour chunks, where you run from one task to the next. But the Maker needs clear, half-day sessions to excel. A coder or a writer can’t do great work in an hour; he can barely get started.

Side hustlers are Makers and Managers at different times, but tend toward managing. A business only succeeds by creating value, and creation is easier in those Maker periods. Wise entrepreneurs schedule Maker time first thing each morning, leaving frenetic Manager work for late-day.

Tim Ferriss simplifies this to the dictum: “Make before you manage.”

“Even token efforts allow me to reassure myself with ‘Don’t worry. You did produce something today,’” Ferriss says. First, understand which work belongs to each domain, then prioritize Maker time each week.

9. Always be shipping.

Planning is crucial, but over-planning is poison. Another hour of research, one more self-help book, a deep dive into the analytics—these are excuses to avoid action, a.k.a. procrastination. The antidote to “preparing to start syndrome” is to set yourself deadlines to “ship” regularly: Post the article, call the client, record the video, release the app, eat the frog. Author Seth Godin admits shipping is dangerous because it exposes us to criticism, failure and financial loss. His response? You can’t spend life curled up in a ball. “You’re going to ship anyway… why bother indulging your fear?”

Set regular, non-negotiable shipping goals that leave you not quite enough time to finish. Why hurry? Because according to Cyril Northcote Parkinson, author of Parkinson’s Law, “work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion.” You don’t need as much time as you think. Light a fire under yourself to ensure you’re getting in front of customers. That will provide valuable feedback about your strategy, and keep you motivated to keep going.

10. Overlap your efforts.

Always follow the “two birds with one stone” approach. This could mean getting paid for the same work multiple times, reusing blog content on multiple platforms or choosing a side hustle that complements your day job.

Brian Dean has built a thriving SEO training company, Backlinko.com, by producing quality blog posts. When he wanted to start marketing through YouTube, he didn’t create new content, he converted existing blog articles to video. This is working smarter, not harder. For you this might mean using your company’s data in your side business or sharing clients. Hustling as an interior designer? Take a job in a furniture showroom where you’ll meet a stream of clients. Just be sure to get written permission from the boss. Get rewarded for the same work more than once and your productivity multiplies.

11. Mind the analytics.

You can’t hit a target you can’t see, so you set goals. By extension, you can’t reach your goal without tracking progress. Analytics is the art of pulling valuable information from raw data. Your analytics can reveal how website visitors or app users are behaving and which features generate sales. But analytics become most powerful when applied to yourself.

You can track any metric. Simple ones include how many gym sessions or alcoholic drinks you had this week. Prioritize metrics tied to your main goals. If you market your side hustle through social media, create a spreadsheet that records your engagement rate, comments and clicks to your website from social networks. Does your business rely on a lead funnel? Then monitor leads, sales calls made and conversion rate to sales.

There’s also hidden power in analyzing your mindset. Any free daily mood tracking app will reveal which activities promote productivity and happiness—and which hamper you. Only when we analyze results can we evaluate our strategy. If you’re on track, the rosy picture will generate serious motivation.

12. Adjust your sails.

When he was a general in World War II, Dwight Eisenhower said, “No plan survives contact with the enemy.” The same is true off the battlefield: No business or life plan stays intact once we start executing. The process of planning is indispensable because it forces us to anticipate outcomes, setbacks and the resources we’ll need to succeed. But reality will always surprise us.

In your side hustle, you adapt or it dies. Tracking analytics shows us reality, but this information is valuable only when used to alter strategy. As you cross the gulf between your present and your desired future, be willing to navigate around reefs and storms, always pointed toward the port where fortune awaits.

* * *

The colossal test of building a business while working full-time and trying to have a semblance of a personal life can energize you like nothing else. One day you’ll look back on this struggle as the most beautiful chapter of your life. But the road to your most exceptional life is littered with boulders, and you’ll need every advantage to stay motivated. These 12 secrets are no magical shortcuts, but they will roll some of those stones out of the way.

This article originally appeared in the May/June 2020 issue of SUCCESS magazine and has been updated. Photo by G-Stock Studio/Shutterstock

Michael Pietrzak